Analysis

This Week in History
16 April 1917: Lenin issues “April Theses”

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Europe Studies
25 Years of Euro: What lies ahead?

April 2024 | CWA # 1274

Alka Bala

NIAS Europe Studies
Ireland: Four reasons why Prime Minister Leo Varadkar resigned

March 2024 | CWA # 1263

Padmashree Anandhan

Global Politics Explainer
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement: The French Senate votes against Canada. Why?

March 2024 | CWA # 1262

Rosemary Kurian

NIAS Europe Studies
The UK bans bottom trawling for three reasons: It is not sufficient

March 2024 | CWA # 1261

Alka Bala

NIAS Europe Studies
Expert Interview: Russia in the International Order

January 2024 | CWA # 1215

Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Shamini Velayutham and Anu Maria Joseph

NIAS Europe Studies
Decoding the UK-Rwanda migration bill post supreme court ruling

January 2024 | CWA # 1214

Alka Bala

NIAS Europe Studies
Norway: Parliament approves controversial deep-sea mining

January 2024 | CWA # 1209

Alka Bala

NIAS Europe Studies
Farmers' protests highlight economic stress and a rising far-right in the EU

January 2024 | CWA # 1208

Rosemary Kurian

NIAS Europe Studies
The War in Ukraine: Drones, missiles and counterattacks

January 2024 | CWA # 1192

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Poland elections 2023: Reasons behind the shift

November 2023 | CWA # 1100

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Ukraine: The failure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

October 2023 | CWA # 1094

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Three Seas Initiative: Uplifting Eastern and Central Europe

October 2023 | CWA # 1093

Rishika Yadav

NIAS Europe Studies
EU Digital Services Act: Three implications

October 2023 | CWA # 1092

Sreeja JS

The War in Ukraine
Issues for Europe

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

The War in Ukraine
Poland’s engagement

October 2023 | CWA # 1090

Yogeswari S | CSIS

The War in Ukraine
NATO’s Challenge

September 2023 | CWA # 1062

Feben Itty | CSIS

The War in Ukraine
Russia’s Endgame

September 2023 | CWA # 1061

Genesy B | abcnews

The War in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Strategies and Endgame

September 2023 | CWA # 1060

Sreeja JS

The new unity of the BRICS-Countries
The US and the EU are lacking support in many developing and emerging economies

September 2023 | CWA # 1055

Heribert Dieter

Weather Anomalies in Europe
Wildfires in Europe: Another year of devastation

August 2023 | CWA # 1048

Sneha Surendran

NIAS Europe Studies
Floods in Europe: Impacts, and issues

August 2023 | CWA # 1047

Rishika Yadav

Weather Anomalies in Europe
Return of the Heatwaves

August 2023 | CWA # 1046

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
The crisis over Turkey-Cyprus road project: Six Questions

August 2023 | CWA # 1041

Rishika Yadav

NIAS Europe Studies
Ukraine War and the International Order

August 2023 | CWA # 1029

Indrani Talukdar

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Germany-Russia Relations: What Next?

July 2023 | CWA # 1023

Himani Pant

NIAS EUROPE STUDIES
The Ukraine War: Europe’s Watershed moment, with four significant outcomes

July 2023 | CWA # 1022

Ankita Dutta

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Euroscepticism Transformed: Italy’s Meloni Seeks to Reform the EU from Within

July 2023 | CWA # 1016

Medini Hegde

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Russia and Europe: Understanding Moscow’s strategies

July 2023 | CWA # 1015

Ramya Balasubramanian

NIAS Europe Studies
Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine

June 2023 | CWA # 1003

Lakshmi Parimala

NIAS Europe Studies
Rise and fall of the Wagner Revolt: Four Takeaways

July 2023 | CWA # 1000

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
The Wagner Revolt: A profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin

July 2023 | CWA # 999

Sneha Surendran

NIAS Europe Studies
The War in Ukraine: Four Issues to watch in 2023

June 2023 | CWA # 997

Padmashree Anandhan

Commentary
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts

June 2023 | CWA # 992

Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Russia’s imperial ambitions: Suppressing Ukraine’s Culture

June 2023 | CWA # 974

Akshaya S

NIAS Europe Studies
The Battle for Bakhmut: Significance, Objectives, Course, and What Next

June 2023 | CWA # 972

Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George | Rishika Yadav is a Research Assistant in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS. Nithyashree RB, Sreeja JS, and Melvin George are Research Interns in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS.

NIAS Europe Studies
Poland approves Russian Influence Law: Three Implications

June 2023 | CWA # 971

Nithyashree RB

NIAS Europe Studies
The Nordic-Ukraine Summit: Four Takeaways

June 2023 | CWA # 970

Sreeja JS

Europe Monitor
Serbia: Mass shootings, protests and instability

June 2023 | CWA # 969

Rishika Yadav | Research Assistant, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore

Europe Monitor
Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023

June 2023 | CWA # 968

Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB | Research Assistant and Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore

Europe Monitor
Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?

June 2023 | CWA # 967

Padmashree Anandhan | Research Associate National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Russia's Position in the Arctic: New challenges

May 2023 | CWA # 963

Indrani Talukdar

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
The Ground Reality of Feminist Foreign Policy: A Conceptual Analysis of the European Framework

May 2023 | CWA # 962

Debangana Chatterjee

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
European Integration: Why Recognition of the Armenian Genocide Matters for the EU

May 2023 | CWA # 961

Kasturi Chatterjee

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Ukraine crisis: Relooking the Security Debates in Europe

May 2023 | CWA # 960

Ankita Dutta

NIAS Europe Studies
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes

May 2023 | CWA # 952

Rishika Yadav

NIAS Europe Studies
Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens

April 2023 | CWA # 940

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
UK's new bill is a misguided patchwork to Europe's refugee problem

March 2023 | CWA # 930

Sourina Bej

NIAS Europe Studies
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict

March 2023 | CWA # 927

Indrani Talukdar

NIAS Europe Studies
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war

March 2023 | CWA # 926

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue

March 2023 | CWA # 925

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Energy Charter Treaty: Three reasons for EU member states exit

November 2022 | CWA # 846

Sai Pranav

Interview with Ambassador Pankaj Saran | War in Ukraine
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China

November 2022 | CWA # 845

Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok

NIAS Europe Studies
The UK: Domestic, regional and global challenges to the new Prime Minister

November 2022 | CWA # 844

Sourina Bej

NIAS Europe Studies
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?

November 2022 | CWA # 843

Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee

NIAS Europe Studies
The Ukraine Conflict: What does it mean for Eastern Europe? Where does India stand?

November 2022 | CWA # 842

Mathew Sonu Simon

NIAS Europe Studies
Boris Johnson exits: The Unravelling of UK leadership in crisis

November 2022 | CWA # 841

Sourina Bej

EUROPE: HEATWAVES, WILDFIRES, DROUGHTS, AND ICE MELT IN ALPS
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts

November 2022 | CWA # 839

Rashmi Ramesh

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
Tracing Europe's droughts

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
Mapping Europe's Wildfires and tracing the causes

November 2022 | CWA # 837

Sai Pranav

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves

November 2022 | CWA # 836

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war

November 2022 | CWA # 835

Emmanuel Selva Royan

NIAS Europe Studies
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?

November 2022 | CWA # 834

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
100 days of the Ukraine war: Ukraine holds their own against Russia’s aggression

November 2022 | CWA # 833

Rishma Banerjee

NIAS Europe Studies
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia

November 2022 | CWA # 832

Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow

November 2022 | CWA # 826

Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War

November 2022 | CWA # 825

Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia

November 2022 | CWA # 824

Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions

November 2022 | CWA # 823

Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore

NIAS Europe Studies Brief
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?

November 2022 | CWA # 822

Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi

NIAS Europe Studies
Elections in Sweden

October 2022 | CWA # 811

Sourina Bej

NIAS Europe Studies
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections

October 2022 | CWA # 810

Padmashree Anandhan

GP Commentary
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways

October 2022 | CWA # 809

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era

September 2022 | CWA # 785

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East

September 2022 | CWA # 784

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak

August 2022 | CWA # 774

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Will Russia's latest attack on the Odessa port, undermine the grain deal with Ukraine?

July 2022 | CWA # 770

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
France: Uber files leak, and Macron’s trouble

July 2022 | CWA # 762

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Studies
Italy: Three factors about its current political instability

July 2022 | CWA # 761

Emmanuel Selva Royan

France Presidential Elections 2022
What does Macron's victory mean for France and the EU

May 2022 | CWA # 737

Padmashree Anandhan

France Presidential Elections 2022
The rise of Marine Le Pen

May 2022 | CWA # 736

Rishma Banerjee

France Presidential Elections 2022
Four challenges ahead for President Macron

May 2022 | CWA # 734

Sourina Bej

NIAS Europe Monitor
Lecture report: Ukraine, Russia and Europe

March 2022 | CWA # 699

Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

NIAS Europe Monitor
Into History: Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday, 50 years later

March 2022 | CWA # 698

Joeana Cera Matthews

NIAS Europe Monitor
Munich Security Report: Six takeaways 

February 2022 | CWA # 688

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Monitor
Europe and Africa: An elusive search for an equal partnership

February 2022 | CWA # 687

Joeana Cera Matthews 

NIAS Europe Monitor
Femicides in Europe: The case of France

February 2022 | CWA # 686

Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

NIAS Europe Monitor
Post Brexit: Three challenges in Northern Ireland

February 2022 | CWA # 680

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Monitor
Lithuania and China: Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel. Four reasons why 

February 2022 | CWA # 678

Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan 

NIAS Global Politics Brief
Russia in 2021: Expanding boundaries

February 2022 | CWA # 673

Angelin Archana

NIAS Europe Monitor
In Europe, abortion rights are "a privilege." Four reasons why

January 2022 | CWA # 664

Joeana Cera Matthews

NIAS Europe Monitor
Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who and Why

January 2022 | CWA # 663

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Monitor
The Artemis Accords: Three reasons why Europe is not on the same page with the US

January 2022 | CWA # 662

Harini Madhusudan

NIAS Europe Monitor
France, Algeria, and the politics over an apology

November 2021 | CWA # 605

Vaishnavi Iyer

NIAS Europe Monitor
NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions

November 2021 | CWA # 604

Joeana Cera Matthews

NIAS Europe Monitor
Facebook's Metaverse: Why it matters to Europe

October 2021 | CWA # 596

Padmashree Anandhan

NIAS Europe Monitor
Belarus's strategy to push migrants:  Europe will find it difficult to respond. Four reasons why

October 2021 | CWA # 595

Joeana Cera Matthews 

NIAS Europe Monitor
Poland, EU and PolExit. It is complicated, for three reasons

October 2021 | CWA # 594

Joeana Cera Matthews 

NIAS Europe Monitor
Europe's Energy Crisis and Gazprom 

October 2021 | CWA # 593

Harini Madhusudhan

NIAS Europe Monitor
Recent terror attacks in Europe: Five trends from England to Norway

October 2021 | CWA # 592

Sourina Bej

NIAS Europe Monitor
Europe's Energy Crisis: It could get worse. Five reasons why

October 2021 | CWA # 573

Chetna Vinay Bhora

NIAS Europe Monitor
France: Paris Terror Trial

September 2021 | CWA # 562

Sourina Bej

NIAS Europe Monitor
Belarus: Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis

September 2021 | CWA # 561

Harini Madhusudan

NIAS Europe Monitor
From Crimea to Navalny: Putin's calibrated Europe strategy

September 2021 | CWA # 550

Joeana Cera Matthews 

NIAS Europe Monitor
Nord Stream-2: Why is the region unhappy about the pipeline?

September 2021 | CWA # 548

Joeana Cera Matthews 

NIAS Europe Monitor
Nord Stream 2 is Russia’s geopolitical victory

August 2021 | CWA # 532

Sarthak Jain

NIAS Europe Monitor
The EU Summit 2021: Five Takeaways

July 2021 | CWA # 520

Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar

NIAS Europe Monitor
Spain, Morocco and the rise of rightwing politics in Europe over immigration

June 2021 | CWA # 497

Chetna Vinay Bhora

Daily Briefs

19 April 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #812

EM in Brief: Georgian Parliament passes the media bill in the first reading

Photo : AP Photo/Shakh Aivazov


By Padmashree Anandhan

GEORGIA
Parliament passes the media bill in the first reading
On 17 April, large number of protestors gathered in Tbilisi after the lawmakers passed a bill considered controversial imposing control on media and non-commercial organisations. The bill mandates such organisations which receive more than 20 per cent of funding from foreign entity to register and therefore categorised as “foreign agents.” In the parliament, the bill was passed in the first reading with 83 in favour from the member of Georgian Dream party while opposition parliamentarians refrained from voting. The protests and objection from the opposition come as they consider the bill to limit freedom and functioning of civil society and media organisations and create a block towards the country entry into the EU. Josep Borell, EU foreign policy representative warned: “The final adoption of this legislation would negatively impact Georgia's progress on its EU path.” (“Georgia: Lawmakers pass 'foreign agent' law in first reading,” Deutsche Welle, 18 April 2024) 

POLAND
President Duda meets Trump to discuss on Ukraine and NATO defence budget
On 17 April, Andrzej Duda, Poland’s President held a meeting with Donald Trump, former US President on the NATO spending and global issues. In the meeting, Duda suggested on raising the defence expenditure threshold from two to three per cent of GDP, as this would align with Trump’s earlier accusation on European members not meeting the contribution limit. They also discussed on the conflict in Ukraine, Israel and on topics in achieving world peace. For Trump, this will be a second meeting after hosting Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister in March. After the meeting, Trump said: “He's done a fantastic job and he's my friend…We're behind Poland all the way.” (“Poland's Duda meets 'friend' Donald Trump in New York,” Deutsche Welle, 18 April 2024)

SWEDEN
Parliament formulates age limit from 18 to 16 for changing gender legally
On 18 April, Sweden’s parliament passed a law reducing the age limit for people to change their legal gender from 18 to 16. The law was favoured with 234 votes and 94 against. Sweden became the first country to legalise gender transition in 1972. The recent move sparked debate but critics call for more research. At present Sweden needs doctor’s diagnosis of gender dysphoria to permit change their gender legally. Under the latest norm, coming into force from 2025 would ease the process through short consultation along with approval from the National Board of Health and Welfare. While the new law is a boon, it mandates those under 18 to acquire approval from parents or guardian before changing their gender legally. Johan Hultberg of the ruling Moderate Party said: “The great majority of Swedes will never notice that the law has changed, but for a number of transgender people the new law makes a large and important difference.” (Francesca Gillett, “Sweden passes law lowering age to change legal gender from 18 to 16,” BBC, 18 April 2024)

REGIONAL
European Commission proposes free movement deal to the UK
On 18 April, the European Commission proposed a free movement deal to the UK to make it easy for younger people between 18 and 30 aged. The UK which already holds few schemes with non-EU countries for such movement for two-years span but it has also expressed openness to extend into other EU member countries over an EU-wide scheme. In response, the UK government stated its readiness for a country-to-country deal applied across the EU bloc while the opposition group Labour party stated that it had no plans for a “youth mobility scheme.” The deal was proposed to especially reduce immigration control imposed on younger one moving between the UK and the EU. Immigration between the two decreased after the freedom of movement rules came to an end in 2021 resulting in EU citizens to apply for visa to study or work in the UK. (Paul Seddon, “EU proposes some free movement for UK young people,” BBC, 18 April 2024)

Debate over abortion laws spark between Spain and Italy leaders
On 18 April, the BBC reported on emergence of a clash between Spain and Italy over Italy’s right-wing coalition permitting anti-abortion groups into abortion clinics. According to the report, the lower house of the parliament is expected to pass the bill. Ana Redondo, Spain’s Equality Minister sparked a debate with Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s Prime Minister. Redondo argued on allowing “organised harassment” in abortion clinics as “undermining a right recognised by the law.” While Meloni countered saying: “Several times I've listened to foreign ministers talk about internal Italian matters without knowing the full facts.” In Italy, abortion was legalised since 1978 carried out in the first 90 days of pregnancy. This is also known as Law 194. However, access to abortion has been challenging as high number of medical professional close to 63 per cent fall under “conscientious objectors,” refusing to perform the operation. (Laura Gozzi, “Spain and Italy clash over abortion laws,” BBC, 18 April 2024)

INTERNATIONAL

Burkina Faso expels three French diplomats
On 18 April, Burkina Faso Foreign Ministry announced on expelling three French diplomats under subversive activities. The three expelled were declared “persona non grata” and asked to exit in 48 hours. According to the French government there were no evidence to expel and allegations were observed to be “unfounded.” Earlier, on 01 December, four French officials were detailed, charged and imprisoned under the charge of being intelligence agents. Since September 2022 coup led by Captain Ibrahim Traore, the country has distanced from France. (“Burkina Faso expels three French diplomats for 'subversive activities',” Le Monde, 18 April 2024)


18 April 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #811

EM in Brief: Plenkovic’s ruling HDZ party wins the Parliamentary elections

Photo : IANS Photo


By Rosemary Kurian

CROATIA

Parliamentary elections: Plenkovic’s ruling HDZ party wins
On 17 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the win of Andrej Plenkovic of the conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won the parliamentary elections with 60 seats, but did not claim a majority in the 151-seat assembly. This would follow potentially tough coalition negotiations by Plenkovic to form a majority. If neither party forms a government within sixty days, it would prompt new elections. According to The Morung Express, Croatia’s parliamentary elections will be a face off between President Zoran Milanovic of the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), a pro-Russian leader and Plenkovic’s ruling HDZ. Milanovic has created an image as a right-wing populist leader who made a surprise announcement of his intention to contest a month before the election. Croatia’s elections were due this autumn, but observers believe that due to Plenkovic’s narrow backing in the Parliament, he wanted a snap election to avoid the threat of further drop in popularity. According to the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Milanovic scheduled surprise elections to make voting difficult for those Croats living in the neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are traditionally conservative and supporters of Plenkovic’s HDZ, to “break the supremacy of the HDZ.” The HDZ has been in power for almost 10 years and is known to be susceptible to corruption. Even Plenkovic, who had donned a “spotless vest” so far, made blunders by electing an Attorney General with links to criminals. (“Croatia's parliamentary elections: Milanovic and Plenkovic face-off,” The Morung Express, 17 April 2024; Dusan Dinic, “King Kong vs. Godzilla – the Croatian way,” Friedrich Naumann Foundation, 16 April 2024; “Croatia: Ruling conservatives win elections without majority,” Deutsche Welle, 18 April 2024)
 
FINLAND

Government announces steps to decrease deficit with the EU
On 17 April, according to the Helsinki Times, the Finnish government announced the ruling coalition’s agreement to a government spending cut worth EUR 1.6 billion and tax increases worth EUR 1.4 billion. After a two-day framework session convened to discuss means to avoid triggering the excessive deficit procedure of the EU, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s government made the announcement, calling them “necessary.” They have decided to increase the general value added tax by 1.5 per cent to 25.5 percent, which could lead to an inflation on several products and services, a step that could be implemented as soon as this year, according to Rikka Purra, Finland’s Minister of Finance. (“Finnish government unveils €1.6bn in new spending cuts, €1.4bn in new tax hikes,” Helsinki Times, 17 April 2024)
 

Helsinki to host Tall Ships Races while promoting Baltic Sea preservation
On 16 April, according to the Helsinki Times, Finland will host its annual Tall Ships Races, a sailing event featuring large traditional sailing vessels, from 04 to 07 July in the capital city of Helsinki. The event that takes place in the Baltic Sea will partner with the John Nurminen Foundation, an organisation focussed on the preservation of the Baltic Sea, as its charity partner. The event will attract around 500,000 visitors to the city, and will promote fundraising for the protection of the Baltic Sea for visiting businesses. Annamari Arrakoski-Engardt, CEO of the John Nurminen Foundation, noted that the “Baltic Sea suffers from eutrophication,” which they aim to prevent through donations. (“Helsinki to host the Tall Ships Races in July 2024 with a focus on Baltic Sea conservation,” Helsinki Times, 16 April 2024)
 

Finland observes increased rates of elder employment, especially among women
On 16 April, according to the Helsinki Times, Finland improved its rate of elder employment, especially among women. Being historically behind fellow Nordic states in elder employment, Anna Sutela, a senior researcher at the Statistics Centre, observed that recent years have showcased significant progress, especially among women aged 50-59, with a less favourable situation for men. Sutela noted that the possible reasons for the improvement could include “…reforms in the pension system, workplace development programs, the education system, something else, or all of these combined.” (“Finland catches up in elder employment, especially among women,” Helsinki Times, 16 April 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Announces to withdraw its forces from Nagorno-Karabakh
On 17 April, according to Politico, Russia announced a complete withdrawal of its forces from Nagorno-Karabakh, directing all its resources to fight its war on Ukraine. After six months of an Armenian forced exodus from Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, the Russian announcement was made, as confirmed by Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin Press Secretary. Russia stationed 1960 soldiers with hundreds of units of armoured personnel and military equipment to monitor the 2020 ceasefire between the two countries, due to a war that followed the fall of the USSR. Russian forces did not act when Azerbaijan launched its attack against Armenians in the unrecognised republic, causing a major humanitarian crisis and forced fleeing of Armenians. This growing rift between Armenia and Russia has prompted the former to push for a closer integration with the EU. (Gabriel Gavin, “Russia announces total withdrawal of troops from Nagorno-Karabakh,” Politico, 17 April 2024)
 

Russia’s ‘meat grinder’ strategy is increasingly killing its soldiers
On 17 April, according to the BBC, more than 50,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the war on Ukraine. The death toll increased by at least 25 per cent after Russia initiated its ‘meat grinder’ strategy in the war’s second year, sending waves of soldiers to overwhelm Ukrainian forces and expose their defences. BBC recorded death toll is eight times higher than Russia’s public acknowledgment of the same, last made in September 2022. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated that giving such data was the “exclusive prerogative of the Ministry of Defence.” The numbers do not include the militants in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). Prison recruits are key in Russia’s meat grinder tactics, like prison inmates who fought on behalf of the Russian government as part of the Wagner group’s private army, which recruited from prisons until the souring of relations with Kremlin. (Olga Ivshina, Becky Dale & Kirstie Brewer, “Russia's meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead”, BBC, 17 April 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU Summit commences with discussions on Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel conflicts
On 17 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the 27 EU leaders attending the EU Summit in Brussels discussed the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and the Iran-Israel tensions as part of Israel’s war against Hamas. Originally meant to discuss the state of economic competitiveness in Europe, the two-day summit will urge “all parties (in the Middle East) to exercise utmost restraint.” Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, stated that the EU would consider furthering sanctions against, with French President Emmanuel Macron adding that the bloc’s “duty is to expand these sanctions,” particularly targeting entities involved in drone and missile production. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, will join the summit through video conference primarily to urge his European partners to provide the required air defence systems against Russian attacks. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, stated that the bloc was facing threats from a “new league of authoritarians” for which they must take the “next leap forward” on “defence and security.” (“EU summit updates: Leaders to discuss Middle East, Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2024)


17 April 2024 Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #810

EM in Brief: Sunak faces opposition on historic tobacco ban bill

Photo : Ben Stansall / AFP


By Rosemary Kurian

BELGIUM 

Brussels mayor orders shutting of right-wing led conference
On 17 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Brussels city authorities ordered the shutdown of a right-wing conference called “national conservatism” or NatCon, to “ensure public security.” Organisers stated that the authorities did not shut the gathering but didn’t allow people to continue to enter the building. The event was slated to be attended by key far-right political figures of Europe, including Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, far-right French politician Eric Zemmour, and conservative German Catholic Cardinal Gerhard Müller expressing the common theme of euroscepticism. Emir Kir, the mayor of Brussels, stated that the far-right was “not welcome” in Brussels, an opinion that the event’s organisers aim to challenge in court. Europe’s far-right is expected to gain ground in the upcoming June elections of the EU. (“Brussels authorities order shutdown of right-wing gathering”, Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2024)
 
GEORGIA

Police clear protesters against controversial ‘foreign agent’ bill
On 17 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Georgia’s riot police cleared protesters outside the parliament building in Tbilisi protesting the controversial “foreign agents” bill. They used pepper spray against the thousands protesting and kept water cannons on standby, detaining 11. The bill, brought by the ruling Georgian Dream party, stipulates that non-commercial organisations receiving 20 per cent or more of their funding from abroad will have to register as “pursuing interests of a foreign power”, dubbed as a Russian-styled bill. The ruling party holds a massive majority without needing opposition to support, with the bill receiving 78 votes in favour and only 25 against. (“Georgia: Riot police clear 'foreign agents' bill protesters”, Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2024)
 
GREECE

Greek journalists declare 24-hour strike demanding higher wages
On 16 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Greece’s Journalists’ Union of Athens Daily Newspapers (ESIEA) declared a 24-hour strike protesting low wages amid inflation. No news was carried on radio, and internet news portal for the day until 5 a.m. on Wednesday, citing “anarchic working conditions and very low pay”. The inflation is noted to be around 37 per cent over the last two years with salaries “not sufficient to cover their basic family and personal needs”. Another day-long strike has been planned by the General Confederation of the Workers of Greece (GSEE) by stopping public transport a day after the ESIEA’s strike. (Richard Connor, “Greek journalists launch 24-hour strike over low wages”, Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2024)
 
THE UK 

Sunak faces opposition on historic tobacco ban bill
On 16 April, according to Politico, Rishi Sunak, the UK’s Prime Minister, wishes to ban smoking among British youngsters, passing the legislation in the House of Commons. Sunak expressed his plan last year, recommending a phased, generational ban on smoking, which, if passed, will become the first of its kind in the world. The legislation is facing considerable opposition from Sunak’s own party, who claim that Sunak is trying to build his legacy amid a failing image. The policy will make the sale of tobacco products illegal to those born after 01 January 2009. During the vote, 59 Tory MPs voted against the legislation citing “significant concerns”, and at least six members in Sunak’s government voted against his proposition, with more than 100 Tory abstentions. Sunak’s predecessors opposed the bill, with former Prime Minister Liz Truss calling it “un-Conservative” and Boris Johnson posing a rhetorical question “The party of Winston Churchill wants to ban [cigars]?” (Andrew McDonald, “Britain’s Conservatives just agreed the world’s toughest smoking ban. Tory MPs hate it”, 16 April 2024)
 
REGIONAL 

EU threatens to take Germany to court if it fails to change new gas tax
On 11 April, according to Politico, the EU plans on taking Germany to court if it fails to call back its controversial gas law that puts a levy on all gas leaving the country. Germany’s neighbouring countries have expressed concerns that the levy violates EU law on gas storage and of the single market. Germany is using the law to plug an EUR 10 billion black hole in its budget and has so far gained EUR 1 billion. But the EU fears that the measure would drive up gas prices, thereby incentivising states to opt for cheaper Russian gas and ruin the EU’s energy diversification plan. The European Commission expressed its concerns to Germany and warned that if the law wasn’t taken back or the levy reduced, it would initiate an “infringement procedure” which comprises financial penalties, after enough compliance requests are offered, following which the case could be moved to court. (Victor Jack and Julia Wacket, “EU gears up to sue Germany if it doesn’t change divisive gas tax”, Politico, 11 April 2024)
 

EU plans to invest EUR 3.5 billion for ocean protection
On 16 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the European Union pledged EUR 3.5 billion for the protection of the world’s oceans and to promote sustainability through initiatives in 2024. The initiatives were announced during the “Our Ocean” conference in Greece, by Virginijus Sinkevicius, the European Commissioner for Environment, Oceans and Fisheries. The conference aims to support 14 investments and one reform targeting sustainable fisheries in Portugal, Poland, Greece and Cyprus worth EUR 1.9 billion. An additional EUR 980 million will be alloted for investments against marine pollution in Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Italy and Spain, under the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility. (“EU pledges €3.5 billion to protect world's oceans”, Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2024)


11 April 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #172

EM in Brief: Sami activists in Norway protest demanding government to remove wind turbines

Photo : Natur og ungdom


By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Politico reports the changing trend in naval combat
On 10 April, Politico reported on the French navy’s shift in training from policing operations to gird. This comes as Rear Admiral Jacques Mallard, the commander of France’s carrier battle group says as a preparation against war. The navy’s mission have focused till now on blocking drug traffickers, combat illegal fishing and launching inflatable boats and detaining criminals. According to him the naval combat is shaping towards war, he added: “…we feel threatened on a more regular basis ... We now train for other missions, in particular what we call high-intensity warfare.” In the EU, France has been the only country with functional nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and it also hosts a battle group of nuclear submarines, frigates and Rafale fighter jets. This is expected to start mission in Mediterranean Sea which is seen as a adaptive move of the west as war in Gaza and Ukraine spill into Black Sea and Red Sea. (Laura Kayali, “France prepares for naval warfare against an enemy that ‘wants to destroy us’,” Politico, 10 April 2024) 

HUNGARY
Agricultural minister calls EU to adopt modern agricultural policies
On 10 April, in a press conference, István Nagy, Hungary’s agricultural minister mentioned the change in community’s interest in the coming European Parliament election. He cited the Brussels agricultural policy as a threat to the farmers and food-security across Europe. He pushed for modern, competitive agricultural policies and promotion of value-added sectors to increase investments, and resources. He assured Hungary’s decision to allot subsidies and ensure equitable opportunities to ease the farmer situation. (“Brussels’ Agricultural Policy a Threat to European Food-Security, States Minister,” Hungary Today, 10 April 2024) 

NORWAY
Sami activists protest demanding government to remove wind turbines
On 09 April, Sami activists gathered in protest to government’s failure to continue the wind turbines remain installed in the grazing land of the Sami group despite the Supreme Court decision. The protestors occupied the entrances of the Oil and Energy Ministry and also blocked the entrances of other ministries throughout 2023. This led to imposition of fines on denying to evacuate on police orders after continuous four days. The group also refused to pay fines but the court rules in favour of the protestors criticising the police for deciding to physically carry out the protestors. The protests emerge as the Norwegian Supreme Court declared the installation of wind turbines to be in violation of Sami’s human rights. (“Sami demonstrators cleared in court,” NewsinEnglish, 09 April 2024) 

SWITZERLAND
ECHR finds the government to be disregarding climate policies risking right to life
On 09 April, European Court of Human Rights ruled in favour of a group of 2,000 Swiss women aged above 64 over climate change suit. The ruling is key to assert to what extent the European countries have violated the human rights of the people by not opting measures to address the climate change. The Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz (Association of Senior Women for Climate Protection Switzerland), the Swiss women group accused the government for its insufficient climate policies which have restricted guarantees and bars the citizen right to life. The lawsuit was joined by senior women between 55 and above who are under risk of dying from heat-related illness which are higher in number than older men. According to the court, it found the Swiss government not meeting the Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights. It also condemned the government for not considering the available evidence relating to climate change. This becomes a landmark event as ECHR has never intervened directly on climate change issue earlier. (Jacob Knutson, “Swiss women win landmark climate change ruling,” Axios, 09 April 2024)


10 April 2024 Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #804

EM in Brief: Simon Harris becomes Ireland’s youngest Prime Minister

Photo : Clodagh Kilcoyne, Reuters


By Alka Bala

GERMANY
Government rebukes Gaza ‘genocide’ claims at ICJ
On 09 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Germany presented its defence against Nicaragua’s charges of German involvement in ‘genocide’ in Gaza through its sale of weapons to Israel. Tania von Uslar-Gleichen, head of Germany’s legal team remarked that Nicaragua’s charges ignore “facts and the law,” lacked evidence and jurisdiction and dismissed it for having a one-sided view of the Israel-Hamas war. The German legal team also highlighted how the export of arms to Israel had been Nicaragua as deliberately misrepresented. Christian Tams of the legal team confirmed that each arms export license is assessed on a case-by-case basis and is checked for risks. According to the legal team, artillery shells and munitions have not been exported to Israel since October 2023. On Nicaragua’s claims for Germany to resume its UNRWA aid, Germany highlighted that it had already resumed its funding and remains as the largest individual donor of humanitarian aid to Palestinians. The German legal team also highlighted that Germany cannot be charged with ‘genocide’ until the courts determine whether Israel is breaching the Genocide Convention. The court is expected to take weeks to rule its preliminary decision, whereas the case regarding Israel’s actions in Genocide could take years for the final ruling. (“Germany presents defence at ICJ over Gaza 'genocide' claim,” Deutsche Welle, 09 April 2024)
 

Interior Minister Faesar promises consequences and effective prevention for violent crimes
On 09 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Nancy Faeser, German Interior Minister stated that Germany continues to be “one of the safest countries in the world,” as annual police statistics indicated Germany reached the highest crime levels since 2016. According to the report, 5.94 million crimes were reported in 2023. Crime increased by 5.5 per cent, violent crime increased by 8.6 per cent, and bodily harm increased by 7.4 per cent. Faeser called for “zero tolerance” and “vigorous policing, swift trials, meaningful sentencing and tangible punishments” to ensure quick consequences for the crimes. The rise in youth crime was attributed to the pandemic and associated social upheaval. The crime related to drugs had uptick by 30 per cent, Faeser indicated that the German government had already established agreements with Brazil, Peru, Columbia and Ecuador for cooperation on its war on drugs. (“Germany: Minister demands 'zero tolerance' for violent crime,” Deutsche Welle, 09 April 2024)
 
IRELAND

Simon Harris becomes Ireland’s youngest Prime Minister
On 09 April, Ireland’s Parliament voted for Simon Harris, aged 37 become the youngest Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland. Harris, former health and higher education minister received 88 votes in favour with 69 against in the parliament. Harris, leader of the Fine Gael party, replaces former Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. Harris would lead a coalition government and would face an election within a year against the left-wing opposition led by Republican Sinn Fein. According to the polling data Harris lags behind Sinn Fein with 21 per cent of votes whereas Finn leads with 26 per cent. Harris is due to announce a cabinet reshuffle of Fine Gael members and is not likely to include the foreign or finance ministries. (“Ireland: Simon Harris elected new prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 10 April 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Government's counter-terrorism efforts spark concerns for migrants
On 09 April, Politico reported that Putin’s failure to prevent the terror attacks by Tajik militants in Moscow had led to domestic targeting of migrants, central Asians and non-white Russians. Since the Islamic Group claimed responsibility for the Crocus City Hall attacks which killed 143, Russian police have carried out raids in migrant dormitories, and mass searches and have expelled 466 individuals for violating migration laws. Authorities from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have issued statements for their Russian-residing citizens to refrain from engaging in mass events. Victoria Maladaeva, President of the Indigenous of Russia Foundation stated “The wave of xenophobia [after the attack] is very tangible for indigenous peoples.” On 26 March, Igor Krasnov Russia’s Prosecutor General reported to Putin that crime committed by foreign nations in Russia had spiked to 75 per cent in 2023, without providing adequate evidence. However, this contradicts the data provided by the Russian Interior Ministry which indicated the crime rates by foreign nationals falling by 7 per cent. Increasing xenophobia after the attacks is spiking anxiety and fear among the non-Slavic communities. (Denis Leven, “Russia’s migrants and ethnic minorities shiver at new Putin terror crackdown,” Politico, 09 April 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

ECHR upholds the failure of national governments to meet climate targets as violation of human rights
On 09 April, according to Deutsche Welle, judges of the European Court of Human Rights delivered judgment on climate change cases focusing on making national governments reach their Paris Climate Agreement obligations to cut carbon emissions. One of the cases filed by Swiss Senior Women for Climate Protection, an elderly Swiss women’s group stated that the government’s failure to meet emissions requirements violated their human rights. The court agreed to the claim and also stated that “there had been critical gaps in the process of putting in place the relevant domestic regulatory framework.” Christina Voigt, a law professor at the University of Oslo highlighted the significance of the judgement, “It's the first authoritative judgement we have from a supranational court that directly links human rights violations to insufficient or non-ambitious action on climate change.” Cordelia Bahr, the Swiss association’s lawyer stated that the court had recognised climate protection as a human right. However, the case filed by Portuguese youth claiming that rising temperatures were a threat to their right to life and forcing 32 European governments to take action towards climate change was dismissed. The court’s dismissal was on the basis that it had no territorial jurisdiction over the mentioned countries, which comprised of EU countries, Norway, Turkey, Switzerland, UK and Russia. (“Climate: ECHR judges side with Swiss group in rights ruling,” Deutsche Welle, 09 April 2024)
 

West agrees on IOC’s decision to allow Russian athletes to compete in Paris Games
On 09 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the UK, France, Germany and the US accepted the plan by the International Olympic Committee to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in the Paris Games, which is scheduled to take place in July and August. The committee’s decision entailed that athletes could compete as neutrals if they did not publicly support the invasion of Ukraine and if they were not linked to the military. Earlier British had maintained that allowing Russians and Belarusians to participate in Paris was “not credible.” Russians would be represented as neutrals, without representing their flags, national anthems or uniforms. Ukraine’s stance of boycotting the Paris Games, if the Russians participate has now been subdued. The guidelines issued by the International Olympic Committee stated that Ukrainian and Russian athletes should not shake hands or stand next to each other. (Mark Meadows, “IOC wins as top Western nations agree to Russians in Paris,” Deutsche Welle, 09 April 2024)
 

China and Russia to boost ties and Eurasian Security
On 09 April, Sergei Lavrov Russian Foreign Minister and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held bilateral talks to “strengthen strategic cooperation” between their countries. According to the RIA Novosti news agency, both countries would “provide each other with strong support.” The meeting was held in China as Lavrov arrived for a two-day visit. They also focus on boosting their Eurasian security to counter US and Western influence and hope to include “other like-minded countries” in this dialogue. Wang stated that NATO should not limit its activities to the Asia Pacific and stated that Russia and China should “oppose hegemonism and power politics, oppose the monopoly of international affairs by a few countries.” Wang also expressed his praise for Vladimir Putin, the Russian President by stating that “China will support Russia's stable development under the leadership of Putin.” China and Russia have been following a “no-limits” partnership since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. ( “China and Russia agree to boost ties in opposition to West,” Deutsche Welle, 09 April 2024)


09 April 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #803

EM in Brief: Protestors take to streets against controversial “foreign agent” bill

Photo : REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze


By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

FRANCE
French assembly approves bill to reduce wastage from fast-fashion
On 08 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the French National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, approved the fast-fashion bill unanimously, especially targeting fast-fashion enterprises like Shein and the online platform Temu, both Chinese manufacturers. Major companies with a certain per day production are required to indicate the environmental impact of their products and urge recycling among customers on their websites, else face a fine up to EUR 15,000. The government is planning to ban publicity for fast-fashion by 2025 with a penalty of up to EUR 100,000. The bill will become law only after approval from the French Senate. Several experts on sustainable fashion welcomed the bill as the victory of a “cultural battle” that addressed “an environmental, social and cultural disaster”. However, others argue that those who can’t afford fashion could be adversely affected, stating that the thresholds shouldn’t be too low. The implications of the bill depends on the threshold set by the government. (Lisa Louis, “Fast fashion: France seeks to slow down wasteful industry,” Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2024)
 
French company ramps up production to meet demand of military drone radar
On 08 April, according to Politico, the French defence equipment manufacturer Thales, which Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, listed as one having significantly ramped up manufacturing, is planning to further expand production. Thales manufactures the high-demand radar system, which is capable of detecting air threats and identifying fighter jets, helicopters and missiles. Located in Limours, the company’s radar can differentiate drones from birds and its GM400 Alpha can detect aircrafts 500 kilometres away. The company is jointly controlled by the French state and fighter jet manufacturer Dassault Aviation, and is the leading radar manufacturer in Europe. The beginning of the war in Ukraine has prompted the French government to urge increased manufacture of defence equipment that is cheaper and faster. Thales is expected to double its production of its radars but faces logistical challenges. (Laura Kayali, “France has a military drone radar everyone’s desperate to get,” Politico, 08 April 2024)
 
GEORGIA
Protestors take to streets against controversial “foreign agent” bill
On 08 April, according to Politico, several demonstrators gathered in the streets of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, after the passing of the first stage of the controversial bill that brands civil society groups as “foreign agents”. Several groups have termed the law akin to Putin’s Russia, which aims to crack down on freedom of speech and funding for civil society groups. A version of the bill was dropped in March 2023 after a public outcry and international condemnation, which was brought back on agenda by the ruling Georgian Dream party, without changes made to the text. Under the law, organisations that receive more than 20 per cent of their funding from abroad will be labelled as those with foreign influence, leading to considerable administrative rules and substantial fines. Humanitarian organisations could also face the risk of being slapped with the label. The proposal has created strained relations with the EU, with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, noting that its “chilling effect” will have “negative consequences for the many Georgians benefiting from their (civil society) work”. He added that the law was “incompatible with EU values and standards”. (Gabriel Gavin, “Protests begin in Georgia against ‘Russian law’,” Politico, 08 April 2024)
 
GREECE
Government declares “high risk” alert amid early wildfires
On 07 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the wildfire season in Greece started earlier than usual after a record warm winter, after at least 70 forest fires were reported. Several regions have been declared as “high-risk,” the second-highest kind, as the level of wildfire alert. Most of the fires except for the one on the island of Crete were brought under control. Strong winds up to 60 kph are expected till 09 April especially in Athens, the Cyclades islands and Crete, which could make “the situation extremely dangerous for the outbreak of fires,” according to Greece’s Civil Protection Ministry. The wildfire could be a result of five weeks of no rain in Greece, leading to dry conditions favourable to forest fires. Several experts have stated that the wildfire season in Greece, set to begin in May will instead begin progressively earlier due to the human-led phenomenon of climate change. (“Greece raises wildfire alert amid early blazes,” Deutsche Welle, 07 April 2024)
 
LITHUANIA
Germany sends the first soldiers part of its permanent Lithuania force
On 08 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Germany sent the first group of soldiers who will be part of its permanent military base in Lithuania with 5000 troops by 2027, in an effort to prevent further attacks from Russia. An advance staff of 20 members is planned to set up the base, with the brigade named as Panzerbrigade 45. Boris Pistorius, the German Defence Minister marked the first time they have “permanently stationed such a unit outside Germany.” Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, stated that the move could only escalate tensions. (“Germany sends first soldiers for permanent Lithuania force,” Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2024)

THE UK
Separate UK and EU systems for carbon-heavy import worry Northern Ireland
On 07 April, Northern Ireland is in another post-Brexit row, as the EU and the UK decided to develop separate systems to tax carbon-heavy imports. According to experts for Northern Ireland, this would disrupt trade, increase business costs and could even lead to job losses. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), is the import tax to be levied on carbon-intensive products from high-carbon emitting industries such as steel and cement. EU’s CBAM is presently in its transitional phase and will be fully implemented by 2026, whereas the UK government plans to introduce its CBAM only in 2027. Currently, the carbon price rates for the EU stand at 56 GBP, for the UK it stands at 40 GBP. EU fears that unless the UK implements its own CBAM aligning the prices with the EU, post-2026, Northern Ireland could become the point of entry for high-carbon goods to enter the EU bloc by paying a lower carbon tax, or no tax at all. EU might aim to extend and apply its carbon tax to the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland, which means that the latter would have to face compliance costs in its trade of carbon goods with the Republic of Ireland. (Abby Wallace and Jon Stone, “Revealed — the next Brexit headache on the Irish border,” Politico, 07 April 2024)
 
SWITZERLAND
Bern and Zurich pledge to reinforce integration of migrants
On 08 April, according to Swissinfo, Swiss cities such as Bern, Zurich and Geneva are taking welcoming measures to integrate migrants and refugees into the cities. Zurich offered to accommodate more refugees than what was allocated to them by the federal and cantonal governments. Bern announced itself as a “safe harbour” for refugees, whereas in 2017 and 2018, Geneva provided permits for undocumented migrants. International cities have launched a Call to Local Action, supported by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) to implement the Global Compact for Migration and the Global Compact on Refugees. Zurich has also joined this initiative and aims to improve municipal public services for irregular migrants. It has already been successful in guaranteeing healthcare to all, even to non-health insurance holders. Zurich aims to launch the Züri City Card in 2026, which would allow all residents to open a bank account or purchase a mobile subscription. (Annegret Mathari, “What cities like Geneva are doing to welcome migrants and refugees,”  Swissinfo.ch, 08 April 2024)
 
REGIONAL 
Russian threats on Finland’s NATO accession appear unsuccessful
On 08 April, according to Politico, Russian threats over Finland’s NATO accession and subsequent stationing of Russian troops on Finland’s border as attempts for intimidation are likely to be unsuccessful. Russia would require a large number of troops, which it does not currently have at its disposal if it aims to avenge Finland’s NATO accession. According to Major General Pekka Tovery, former Finnish Military Intelligence Chief and Finnish Parliament member, “The Russians won’t have the resources to build infrastructure, produce new heavy weaponry and recruit considerable numbers of forces to our border before the 2030s.” He also indicated how Finland’s operation environment requires special training and equipment which Russia lacks. Russia also struggles with mobilising recruits to fight in Ukraine and has ordered to increase in its armed forces to a total of 1.32 million by 2026 from the present 1.15 million. Given Russia’s struggle with its armed forces, a threat over Finland’s NATO accession does not hold real consequences, at least in the short run. (Elizabeth Braw, “Putin miscalculated on Finland’s border,” Politico, 08 April 2024)


INTERNATIONAL
Germany’s supply of weapons to Israel accused of breaching UN genocide convention
On 09 April, the BBC reported on Nicaragua’s appeal to halt the sale of German weapons to Israel as Germany also faces accusations of breaching the UN genocide convention and ending the funding of the UN’s aid agency. Germany rejects the accusation and is set to present its defence in the International Court of Justice on Tuesday. Nicaragua stated that Germany’s arms sales, mostly comprising of air defence systems and communication equipment to Israel increased tenfold in 2023 compared to 2022, amounting to USD 326.5 million. Germany had also ceased funding the UN's Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), over allegations that some of its staff were involved in the attacks on Israel on 07 October. Along with a halt in weapons supply to Israel, Nicaragua also wants Germany to resume its funding of the aid agency. Wolfgang Buechner, a German government spokesperson dismissing these claims stated, “We note Nicaragua's lawsuit and we deny the allegations as unjustified.” (Matt Murphy, “Germany faces genocide case over Israel weapon sales,” BBC, 09 April 2024)
 
US and EU put pressure on China to contribute funds for climate change
On 08 April, according to Politico, western governments increasingly mount pressure on China to commit funding for poorer countries to adapt to climate change. Beijing is not subjected to pay under the 1992 UN Climate Treaty. The Chinese taxpayers, exempted from paying for climate causes have grown wealthier over the last three decades whereas China has become the third largest contributor to climate change after the US and the EU. John Kerry, US climate envoy stated that the upcoming COP would focus largely on finance and would deal with the expansion of the donor base. The EU signalled that they are expecting “much greater transparency” from China regarding its funding to poorer nations. Although China had made a voluntary pledge of USD three billion to a China South-South Climate Cooperation Fund, however, the exact amount disbursed is still unclear. In March, foreign ministers from all EU countries stated that “all countries should contribute to the new climate finance goal according to their financial capabilities, including emerging economies.” According to the Western nations, along with China, they also expect wealthy Gulf countries to contribute to the climate causes. (Karl Mathiesen, “EU and US push China to help them write big new climate check,” Politico, 08 April 2024)


08 April 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #802

EM In Brief: Pro-Russian Pellegrini emerge victorious in Slovakia's Presidential run-off

Photo : AFP 2023 / VLADIMIR SIMICEK


By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

SLOVAKIA

Pro-Russian Pellegrini emerge victorious in the Presidential run-off
On 06 April, according to Politico, Peter Pellegrini, the Speaker of the Parliament won the runoff Presidential elections against Ivan Korčok, a pro-West career diplomat. Pellegrini’s victory allows Prime Minister Robert Fico’s ruling coalition absolute control over the legislative and executive organs of the government. Pellegrini who won with 53 per cent of the votes, said: “...this victory is an enormous vindication for me.” The reasons behind Pellegrini's victory was due to social media campaign, pledges to increase the pension and bonus for police and firefighters. Korčok who had received 47 per cent of the votes in the runoff elections, which was five per cent more votes than Pellegrini condemned the aggressive election campaign led by the competitor. Pellegrini accused Korčok of being “a war-monger who unhesitatingly supports everything the West tells him, including dragging Slovakia into [the Russia-Ukraine] war.” The opposition held the stance in support for Kyiv, while Pellegrini favours the role of the state and accused of sending Slovakian soldiers to fight in Ukraine. In Slovakia, the power of the President is limited to appointing ambassadors, returning legislation and granting amnesties. However, Pellegrini being an ally of Fico, is observed to be benefit the Direction – Slovak Social Democracy party's pro-Russian policies and agenda to modify penal code and control of media. (Tom Nicholson, “Slovak presidency goes to PM Fico’s proxy,” Politico, 06 April 2024)

HUNGARY

Prime Minister Orban’s rival garners mass support
On 06 April, according to Deutsche Welle, tens of thousands of people rallied in Budapest to the parliament building demanding resignation of the Viktor Orban, Prime Minister. Peter Magyar, who was closely associated with Orban’s government launched a political movement against him alleging corruption and cronyism. Magyar addressed the crowd and stated how his movement would unite political opposition and the citizens unhappy with Orban’s rule for 14 years. He promised to build a new Hungary step-by-step. Magyar was closely associated with the ruling Fidesz party and was married to Judit Varga, Orban’s former Justice Minister. Earlier this year, Orban was hit with a child sex abuse scandal, which led to the resignation of former President Katalin Novak and Judit Varga’s resignation. Orban has also been accused by the EU of controlling the media, and elections and eroding the rule of law in the country. According to a study by pollster Median, Magyar’s movement has reached up to 68 per cent of voters, out of which 13 per cent of voters have indicated the intention to support him. (“Hungary: Tens of thousands rally in support of Orban rival,” Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2024)
 
NORWAY

Government plans to double its defence budget by 2036
On 05 April, according to Politico, Norway announced a proposal to increase their defence spending in the next 12 years by 600 billion kroner (EUR 51 billion). Anne Marie Aanerud, the Norwegian Deputy Defence Minister, during the Norwegian-American Defence Conference in Washington, cited the need for “major investments” in Norwegian forces. Norway aims to increase its spending to 1.6 trillion kroner by 2036 for boosting its industry to support the armed forces. A major chunk of the spending will go to the navy, which would add at least five frigates with anti-submarine helicopters, five submarines, 10 large and 18 small vessels. It will further spend in upgrading its long-range air defence systems and increase surveillance with more satellites, vessels and drones. (Laura Kayali and Paul Mcleary, “Norway pitches ‘historic boost’ in defense spending,” 05 April 2024)
 
POLAND

Voting in the local elections act as a test for Tusk
On 07 April, according to Deutsche Welle, voters cast ballots in the local elections across Poland. The elections would act as a test of support for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European policy. The parties leading the election race include Tusk’s Civic Coalition and the conservative nationalist party of Law and Justice Party (PiS), which had governed Poland for the last eight years. According to Poland’s election commission, voter turnout at 1500 GMT stood at 39.4 per cent. The polls indicated 33.7 per cent votes for the PiS and 31.9 per cent for Civic Coalition Party. Third Way Party and the Left which make up the other governing coalition parties, gained 13.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent of votes respectively. The elections act as a test for Tusk’s liberal pro-European government, which has focused on reversing changes brought in by the PiS in the judicial system and media. Tusk had warned that winning of Civic Coalition is essential to prevent Poland from slipping back into nationalist rule. Around 190,000 candidates are contesting for positions as mayors and councillors. (“Poland votes in local elections test for Tusk,” Deutsche Welle, 07 April 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Thousands evacuated from Osrk city as floods aggravate
On 06 April, BBC reported the evacuation of more than 1100 residents in the Orsk district of Russia. The rise of water in the Ural River due to the melting of ice had called for an emergency in the entire region of Orenburg. According to officials, “10,000 residents may be in the flooding zone and up to 4,000 houses could be inundated.” Russian Emergencies Ministry stated that work on the dam rupture in Orsk was continuing. Vasily Kozupitsa, Mayor of Orsk warned about the “worsening situation” as the old town city is flooded and could be potentially cut off from the rest of the city. Orsk which has a population of 230,000 people is moving its residents to nearby schools. Regions of Orsk, Orenburg, Urals regions and parts of Kazakhstan have been suffering from floods in recent days. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakh President stated the calamity to be the worst natural disaster for 80 years. (“Thousands evacuated as Orsk dam burst worsens Russia floods,” BBC, 06 April 2024)
  
SWITZERLAND

Alps witness rise in temperatures
On 07 April, according to Swissinfo, the northern side of the Alps witnessed temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius, earlier than usual. Several weather stations witnessed the warmest April this year. Basel was the warmest with 28.8 degrees Celsius in the afternoon, due to the southwest wind. The Interlaken region observed a four degree rise in temperature in the beginning of April compared to previous years. Weather forecasts expect this “heatwave” to pass by Tuesday. (“April heatwave sets Swiss temperature records,” Swissinfo, 07 April 2024)
 
THE NETHERLANDS

Dutch authorities detain Greta Thunberg at a protest against fuel subsidies 
On 06 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg was arrested by the Dutch authorities twice as she joined demonstrators from Extinction Rebellion to block a motorway in Hague. According to a spokesperson of Extinction Rebellion, “Thunberg had been held for several hours before being released in the evening.” The demonstration was against the Dutch fossil fuel subsidies. Dutch police announced that more than 400 people were arrested as they ignored the orders to disperse. Extinction Rebellion stated its intention to continue the protests until the government stops using public funds to subsidise the gas and oil industry. The protests come before the debate in the Dutch government on fossil fuel subsidies which is scheduled in June. (“Climate activist Greta Thunberg arrested in the Netherlands,” Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2024)
 
REGIONAL 

Apple revises rules in favour of music apps outside App Store after EU antitrust decision
On 06 April, according to Politico, Apple agreed to allow music-streaming apps within the EU to inform their users of alternatives for payment outside of the iOS App Store. Regulators of antitrust laws found that Apple’s rules prevented alternative apps like Spotify from informing iOS users of alternative modes of subscriptions, often cheaper, available outside the App Store, which the EU termed as “anti-steering provisions”. EU regulators called Apple’s regulations “abusive”, fining it with more than EUR 1.8 billion in March for potentially increasing subscription prices. While Apple earlier decided to appeal the EU's decision citing lack of “credible evidence of consumer harm”, it later updated its guidelines to allow music apps to inform users of their subscription/music purchase options. In the new rules for App Store, Apple has however included a 27 per cent “commission” if the music purchase was made within seven days of accessing the link provided by the company. The EU is “currently assessing” Apple’s level of compliance to its decision. (Tommaso Lecca, “Apple allows music apps to offer payments outside App Store in the EU,” Politico, 06 April 2024)
 

Von der Leyen appoints senior officials to lead her campaign
On 05 April, according to Politico, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, picked Björn Seibert, her head of Cabinet, to lead her campaign in the bid for a second term in the position. Alexander Winterstein, a senior civil servant at the communications directorate-general of the Commission, was announced as her campaign spokesperson. Winterstein’s promotion to his current position was announced during the European People’s Party’s gathering in Romania to endorse von der Leyen, raising questions from journalists. Eric Mamer, the Commission’s spokesperson, called the promotion “totally normal”. Seibert and Winterstein will be taking unpaid leave from their current positions until the elections on June 6 to work on the campaign. Von der Leyen will continue in her current role while running for re-election, albeit separating her campaign appearances with her day-to-day appearances. (Eddy Wax, Pierre Ngendakumana, “Von der Leyen picks campaign team for run at second term as EU Commission chief,” 05 April 2024)
 

EU’s measure to ease Ukrainian truckers’ access sparks furore
On 02 April, according to Politico, the EU plans on extending the access for Ukrainian and Moldovan truckers into the bloc, causing anger among EU truckers. The earlier measure that allowed Ukrainian shippers to transport cargo into the EU didn’t allow Ukrainian truckers to transport these goods within the EU. Truckers from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania had earlier blocked road crossings connecting Ukraine with their countries as a mark of protests against EU policy. They suggested that Ukrainian truckers failed to follow the rules, and instead of the policy helping Ukraine’s economy during the war, “Ukrainian trucking companies have gone into cross-trading and cabotage services, undermining EU companies” by providing services at cheaper rates, according to Jan Buczek, President of the Polish Association for International Road Carriers. The EU took some concerns into account, suggesting to suspend the agreement given a national road transport market faces major disturbances, as a safeguard. (Jeremy van der Haegen and Wojciech Kosc, “There’s a fight looming over EU plans to extend access to the bloc for Ukrainian truckers,” Politico, 02 April 2024)


06 April 2024, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #801

EM In Brief: Macron acknowledges French failure to stop Rwanda Genocide on its 30th anniversary

Photo : news.az/politico


By Alka Bala

FRANCE

Macron acknowledges French failure to stop Rwanda Genocide on its 30th anniversary
On 05 April, Politico reported that on the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged France’s failure to stop the Rwanda genocide. Macron in a video message stated that “France, which could have stopped the genocide with its Western and African allies, did not have the will to do so.” The Rwandan genocide resulted in the ethnic cleansing of members of the Tutsi minority by Hutu militants between April and July 1994, killing 800,000 people. Macron was invited to Rwanda to commemorate the anniversary, however, was instead represented by Stéphane Séjourné, French Foreign Affairs Minister and Rwandan- born Hervé Berville, Secretary of State for the Sea. Earlier in 2021, Macron had visited the Kigali Genocide Memorial honouring victims in Rwanda, and had acknowledged France’s “responsibilities” but had also stated that the country “was not an accomplice” to the violence. (Seb Starcevic, “Macron to acknowledge France’s failure to stop Rwanda genocidePolitico, 5 April 2024)
 
GERMANY

Intelligence chief warns about rising far-right extremists with licenced arms
On 05 April, according to Deutsche Welle, a large number of far-right extremists and supporters of the Reichbürger group, still have permission to own weapons. Reichbürger group refers to a far-right radical movement that rejects the legality of the Federal State of Germany. According to the Interior Ministry, in 2023 about 1561 extremists and some 500 Reichsbürger possessed arms licenses. Martina Renner, a parliamentarian from the Left Party stated that “It is not announcements that are needed but concrete action by the authorities against Nazis and Reichsbürger.” She urged the government to pursue measures regarding weapons law. Nancy Faeser, Germany’s Interior Minister has announced regarding strengthening of laws around weapons licenses. However, amid discussions to develop new legal reforms, the Free Democrats Party voice for rigorous implementation of existing reform. (“Germany: Many far-right extremists licensed to own arms,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2024)
 

Germany launches “war-ready” military reforms with emphasis on cyber-warfare
On 04 April, Deutsche Welle reported that Boris Pistorius, German Defense Minister plans to introduce military reforms and restructure the command structure. Reforms include, the establishment of a new branch focusing exclusively on cyber-warfare and will work in coordination with the army, air force and the navy. The new Cyber and Information Domann Service would focus on preventing and working against cyberattacks, protecting electronic infrastructure, and preventing disinformation and other hybrid threats. The change in the structure includes the oversight of all four branches under a new central command, which would be the unified point of contact for NATO. Pistorious stated that the German military, Bundeswehr would require an additional EUR 6.5 million in its budget for 2025 to implement these reforms. (“Germany launches military reform with new command structure,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2024)
 
KOSOVO

Kosovo Statistics Agency began its first census in ten years; Serb parties call for boycott
On 05 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Kosovo began its first nationwide census in the last ten years. The census would also include a survey of the ethnic Serb minority residing in the north. Albin Kurti, Kosovo’s Prime Minister had earlier urged the Serb minority to participate in the census. The census has been opposed by four Serb parties, including the Srpska Lista. Kosovo is dominated by the majority Albanian population, however, in the northern municipalities, Serbs are in the majority. The last population census in Kosovo was held in 2011 by the Kosovo Statistics Agency (ASK) and ended with a population count of 1.8 million people. The census would allow the government to tally the number of people, their households, education and employment to make plans for policies. ASK aims to conduct the census in six weeks, between 5 April and 17 May. The cost of carrying out the census is estimated to be 13 million dollars and has been funded by Eurostat, the World Bank and UN organisations. (“Kosovo begins first census in over 10 years,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2024)
 
THE UK

Government justifies quitting EU’s Erasmus+ student exchange scheme
On 03 April, according to Politico, the UK quit the EU’s Erasmus+ student exchange scheme as the membership was too expensive to justify, owing to Brit’s poor foreign language skills. Nick Leake, a diplomat at the UK mission stated that lesser participation by the UK students in the scheme owing to language learning had forced the UK to pay EUR 300 million more each year into the program, than what it receives back. Although youth organisations have pushed the UK to rejoin the scheme, Leake’s statement at the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) meeting in Brussels stated “The interests of the U.K. taxpayer is why we decided not to participate in Erasmus+.” Maurizio Cuttin, British Youth Council's ambassador to the European Youth Forum expressed the decision as a “devastating loss of exchange and educational opportunities for young people on both sides of the Channel.” Turing, UK’s study abroad scheme, was indicated to not have achieved its target of reaching 35,000 students but only reached 20,000 students. 80 per cent of universities also complained about the difficulties in the application process. (Jon Stone, “UK quit Erasmus because of Brits’ poor language skills,” Politico, 03 April 2024)
 

Bidding begins for government funds for zero-emission international shipping routes
On 05 April, Lord Davies UK’s Maritime Minister began the bidding process to reach the 1.5 million GBP required to develop zero-emission international shipping routes from the UK. The project is aimed at providing cleaner journeys for passengers and goods, generating employment and economic growth. The latest round of the Clean Maritime Demonstration Competition aims at the creation of ‘green corridors’, the development of infrastructure and requirements such as green fuel and charging systems. The project would connect the shipping routes between the UK and Netherlands, Norway, Denmark and Ireland. Clean Maritime Demonstration Competition was first announced in 2023 during London International Shipping Week. Ireland and the Netherlands will provide funding for their organisations to run the project, whereas Denmark and Norway will contribute through access to information and facilitate collaboration. (“New green international shipping routes backed by government funding,” Government of UK, 05 April 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Slovak Prime Minister seeks to improve ties with Vietnam
On 05 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Robert Fico, Slovakia’s Prime Minister seeks to reshape his foreign policy and plans to improve ties with Communist states like Vietnam. Although the countries were historically close, relations deteriorated after the abduction of Trịnh Xuan Thanh, a Vietnamese fugitive in Berlin whom Vietnamese secret service agents abducted. This was followed by the expulsion of Vietnamese diplomats from Germany. Slovak who got re-elected in October, is in his third term and is set to follow a “sovereign Slovak foreign policy.” In January, Fico met with Pham Minh Chinh, the Vietnamese Prime Minister at the World Economic Forum. He also met Lubos Blaha, the deputy speaker of the Slovak National Council and Nguyen Tuan, the Vietnamese Ambassador. Fico’s foreign policy has drifted away from the West, received criticism from the EU as the country vowed not to arm Ukraine, and has called for a negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine. (David Hutt, “Vietnam-Slovakia ties to improve, thanks to new Slovak PM,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2024)
 

EU and US pledge 290 million USD for Armenia’s “resilience and growth”
On 05 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the EU and the US pledged to send a financial grant package of 290 million USD to Armenia over the next four years to boost “resilience and growth.” The EU chief, Ursula von der Leyen, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State and Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian Prime Minister met in Brussels on Friday for the meeting. Von der Leyen stated that “Europe and Armenia share a long and common history and the time has come to write now a new chapter.” Blinken promised that the US would provide Armenia with 65 million USD this year to boost economic support, and it would “continue to support the 100,000 ethnic Armenians displaced from the Nagorno-Karabakh region.” Armenia used to observe Russia as its closest ally and has now shifted towards the West, post Moscow’s failure to intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia criticised the meeting, whereas Turkey which backs Azerbaijan stated that “the neutral approach that should be the basis for the solution of the complex problems of the region.” (“EU and US pledge fresh financial support for Armenia,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2024)


04 April 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #799

EM in Brief: The UK Supreme Court justices call ban on weapon sale to Israel

Photo : Reuters


Europe In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

RUSSIA
Putin calls for countering illegal immigration
On 02 April, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President demanded the law enforcement agencies to counter illegal immigration and organised crime. He pointed to the increasing unauthorised migration leading to extremism and criminality especially operating in the borders. He said: “I ask you to pay special attention to such priorities as ensuring public order, combating extremism, and suppressing illegal migration.” Since the attack in the Crocus concert hall, Russia’s security agency has been tasked to trace the responsible parties behind the attack. (“Putin orders crackdown on illegal immigration,” RT, 02 April 2024)

SLOVAKIA
Environment Ministry proposes law to shoot brown bear within 500 metres
On 03 April, Environment Ministry of Slovakia announced on a draft constitutional law to be soon presented in the parliament to allow shooting of bears which pose danger. The law will grant permit for hunters to shoot down bears nearing the human settlements. Under the current rules, bears can be killed only if “driven away” from the area or into the forest, but as per new norm, it can be shot within 500 metres of the village. This comes after a woman was killed in March after being chased by a bear. Tomáš Taraba, Environment Minister from the far-right Slovak National Party pushed forth the draft at the national and regional levels to reduce the protection status of the brown bear. (Louise Guillot And Karl Mathiesen, “Slovakia proposes law allowing bears to be shot near villages,” Politico, 03 April 2024)

THE UK
Supreme Court justices call ban on weapon sale to Israel
On 04 April, the BBC reported on three former Supreme Court justices move to join with 600 legal experts to demand the UK government to end the sale of weapons to Israel. According to the report, the UK sales is lower compared to Germany, Italy and the US but the justices argue that a ban would add diplomatic and political pressure on Israel. This is mainly due to the conflict in Gaza is under international scrutiny. Since 2008, the UK has licenced arms to Israel for GBP 574 million but such export licences cannot be granted if the weapons were used in violation of international humanitarian law. (Emily Atkinson & Adam Durbin, “Arms sales to Israel: Top judges urge UK to halt weapons trade,” BBC, 04 April 2024)

REGIONAL
NATO Secretary General proposed a EUR 100 billion military aid to Ukraine
On 03 April, in the meeting with the NATO foreign ministers, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General proposed for a new approach toward aiding Ukraine. He pitched an idea of funding EUR 100 billion as military aid to Ukraine over five year period to shift more responsibility on NATO to gather support. He said: “We must ensure reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine for the long haul…so that we rely less on voluntary contributions and more on NATO commitments. Less on short-term offers and more on multi-year pledges.” The statement comes as the US delays over the USD 60 billion military aid to Ukraine and Stoltenberg mentioned the delay in decision to result in consequences on the ground. On the same, ministers from Poland and Germany expressed support to the long-term support and the proposal. (Stuart Lau And Aitor Hernández-Morales, “NATO ministers’ doubts, fears and eye-rolls over €100B Ukraine plan,” Politico, 03 April 2024) 

European Commission to investigate solar panel manufactures of China in Romania
On 03 April, the European Commission launched an investigation into China’s solar panel manufacturers who are suspected of “undercutting local suppliers.” A 110-megawatt solar farm in Romania called Enevo Group which comes under the EU modernization fund is on suspect of receiving subsidies from China, breaching EU’s policy of fair competition. According to Thierry Breton, EUs Internal Market Commissioner, the investigation aims to secure Europe’s economic security and competitiveness by making companies follow the single market regulations in a competitive and fair manner. Along with the Romanian farm, Longi Green Energy Technology owned by China and subsidised by Germany has also come under enquiry. In the investigation, the Commission will examine the economic operators to find if there was any benefit drawn to attain the public contracts in the EU. The market regulations of the EU mandate the companies to notify the Commission if their tender value goes up more than EUR 250 million and had also received foreign contribution close to EUR four million in last three years. (“EU investigates Chinese solar firms over unfair subsidies,” Deutsche Welle, 04 March 2024)

Eurozone inflation rates increase slower than expected
On 03 April, the annual rate of inflation of countries using Euro decreased in faster rate than predicted in March. According to the report in Deutsche Welle the Eurozone consumer prices increased by only 2.4 per cent less than 2.6 per cent in February. Germany recorded an annual rate of inflation in March of 2.2 per cent reduced from 2.7 per cent in February. Experts from the European Central Bank stated that despite the fluctuations in the inflation rate, they do not expect the interest rate to fall. However, increasing the interest can slow down the economic growth which makes the government to expect the ECB to declare the win over inflation soon. (“Eurozone inflation drops faster than predicted in March,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2024)

INTERNATIONAL
China invested company raises security concerns in Poland’s port
On 03 April, Politico reported on increased security concerns over a Hong Kong based company in Poland’s Gdynia port. The concerns come as its located close to a dock which was earlier involved in loading and unloading the US and NATO military aid for Ukraine. According to the Polish authorities, the Gdynia Container Terminal (GCT) has been under surveillance while it faces pressure to declare it as critical infrastructure. The GCT known for full-service and heavy-lift handling expands to 20 hectares with 600 metres in the Baltic Sea port. Therefore, the concerns are not only limited to proximity of NATO but also Polish military assets. Marek Biernacki, an MP with the Third Way party said: “The committee has prepared an opinion to the prime minister indicating that there is a lack of a legal environment for large investments that should be protected as part of critical infrastructure.” If declared so, the Chinese investment company would have to report to the government on its security operations. (Jeremy Van Der Haegen And Wojciech Kość, “Chinese presence in a Polish port triggers security fears,” Politico, 03 April 2024)


02 April 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #797

EM in Brief: Germany moves ahead to legalise recreational cannabis

Photo : AFP


By Alka Bala

CYPRUS

New wave of migrants enter through southeastern coast
On 01 April, Xinhua reported on the problem faced by Cyprus over the wave if immigrants from Syria. In the last 24 hours, close to seven small boats were reportedly transported 500 Syrian immigrants crossing into Cyprus’s southeastern coast. Rescue operations were triggered amid the concern of overcrowded vessels. The migrants are expected to originate from Lebanon which is 200 kilometres from Cyprus and becomes the second occurrence since 13 January. Konstantinos Ioannou, Cyprus Interior Minister highlighted the increasing concern over influx of Syrian due to high number of hostilities in Gaza. He urged the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, the Frontex to intervene to help control the migrant boat entry. (“Fresh surge of Syrian immigrants hits Cyprus,” Xinhua, 02 April 2024)

GERMANY 

Government moves ahead to legalise recreational cannabis
On 01 April, according to Times Malta, Germany became the largest EU country to legalise recreational cannabis, allowing adults, over 18 to carry up to 25 grams of dried cannabis and grow up to three marijuana plants at home. The law became effective on 01 April, and from 01 July, it would be allowed for people to legally purchase weed through “cannabis clubs” in the country. Although the government believes that the new law would help curb and contain the black market for cannabis, the decision has drawn flak from health specialists. Cannabis use among young adults, who are more susceptible to health risks, also increases the risks of damage to the central nervous system, and risks of developing psychosis and schizophrenia. Karl Lauterbach, German Health Minister indicated that cannabis consumption could be “dangerous”, especially for young people. The government had stated that cannabis would be banned within 100 meters of schools, kindergartens and playgrounds. Friedrich Merz, Conservative opposition leader stated his intention to “immediately” repeal the law if his party won the elections in 2025. (“Germany gives controversial green light to cannabis,” Times Malta, 01 April 2024)
 

German soccer federation recalls jerseys numbered 44, over Nazi symbolism
On 01 April, according to Le Monde, the German soccer federation and Addidas recall the sale of jerseys numbered 44 due to its resemblance with the Nazi Party’s SS paramilitary unit’s logo. The federation expressed that “None of the parties involved saw any proximity to Nazi symbolism in the development process of the jersey design,” and it is now working with its partner 11teamsports to develop an alternative design for the number four. Nazi Party’s Schutzstaffel group, which used the symbol SS was involved in carrying out mass killings in the concentration camps during World War II. Oliver Brüggen, Addidas spokesperson stated that the company stood for “…diversity and inclusion, and as a company, we actively campaign against xenophobia, antisemitism, violence and hatred in all forms.” Germany is scheduled to host the European Championship from 14 June to July 14. (“Germany recalls soccer jerseys with number 44 due to associations with Nazi symbolsLe Monde, 01 April 2024)
 
IRELAND

Restoring duty on fuel would push more ‘fuel tourism’ in Northern Ireland
On 01 April, the BBC reported that according to the Irish Road Haulage Association (IRHA), the restoration of excise duty on fuel would push for greater movement to Northern Ireland to purchase petrol and diesel. On Monday, the price of petrol and diesel increased by four per cent per litre and three per cent per litre respectively. Ger Hyland, President of IRHA stated that “fuel tourism” would have an impact on the Irish economy. He indicated the rise in fuel prices would prove difficult for Irish industries to compete with other companies in mainland Europe. He also stated that since hauliers operated in a “low margin” industry, there would be a rise in price for the consumers. The decision to restore excise duty was made in October 2022. (“'Fuel tourism' to NI could follow Irish duty moveBBC, 01 April 2024)
 
LATVIA

Eurostat reveals Latvia among the lowest hourly labour costs 
On 31 March, Eng.lsm.lv reported on the 2023 data revealed by Eurostat which indicated hourly labour costs in the EU at EUR 31.8 and EUR 35.6 in the euro area. However, despite such high numbers, hourly labour costs in Bulgaria and Latvia range from EUR 9.3 to EUR 13.5 respectively. In Luxembourg, the hourly wages were reported to be as high as 53.9 per cent. These varying figures reflect the income gaps within the EU member states. (“Latvia's labor costs lowest among Baltic states,” Eng.lsm.lv, 31 March 2024)
 
TURKEY

Opposition Mayor Imamgolu secures elections in Istanbul and Ankara
On 01 April, according to Deutsche Welle, Mayor Ekrem Imamgolu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) won the Municipal elections against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). According to Anadolu, the state news agency, CHP secured victory in the capital city of Ankara and other major cities such as Izmir and Antalya. According to Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University remarked this election was “The biggest election defeat of Erdogan's career.” According to the preliminary election results, the CHP was reported to be ahead of its rival AKP in 36 provinces out of 81. CHP accumulated 37.32 per cent of the votes whereas AKP had 35.78 per cent. Post elections defeat, Erdogan remarked: “We will honestly assess the results of the elections ... and courageously exercise self-criticism.” Earlier, 70-year-old Erdogan had stated that this election would be his last. Erdogan has been the Prime Minister since 2003 and held the Presidential post in 2014. (“Turkish opposition surges in local polls blow to Erdogan,” Deutsche Welle, 01 April 2024)


01 April 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #796

EM in Brief: Belarus and Russia to implement scientific and technological development

Photo : Belta


By Alka Bala

FRANCE

Attal introduces reform to the unemployment insurance system
On 29 March, according to Le Monde, Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister of France, introduced reforms to the unemployment insurance system. The announcement marks reforms in the system for the third time in the last three years. The newest reforms focus on three aspects; firstly, reducing the period of unemployment benefits, which is currently 18 months. Secondly, revising the duration taken for compensation to claimants, and thirdly decreasing the level of benefits. Although the first two aspects have been welcomed, they have been criticised by labour unions since the implementation of the reforms comes during a tumultuous economic climate. The unions believe that the new measures would have negative implications for the unemployed. The government’s arguments for quick re-employment of the workers have been met with unions’ efforts, which focus on giving protection to the unemployed and interests of the companies they represent. Efforts for reform in the unemployment system have been initiated since 2017, however, the government should gauge the impact of the previous reforms before urgently implementing the new reforms. (“The heavy toll imposed on France's unemployed,” Le Monde, 29 March 2024)
 
SWITZERLAND

FSO reports women continue being under-represented in Swiss academia 
On 28 March, Swissinfo.ch reported an increase in the number of female teaching staff comprising professors and other teachers, however, this progress has been slow. According to data from the Federal Statistics Office (FSO), the number of female staff increased from  24.3 per cent in 2012 to 30.1 per cent in 2022. In Switzerland, women account for only 24 per cent of the top professorships in 12 universities, however, this remains lower than the EU average which is 26 per cent. Within academia, there remains severe underrepresentation in STEM fields (science, technology, engineering and maths), whereas women are reported to be over-represented in the field of life sciences. Switzerland’s structural social issues such as the limited provision of childcare services, force women to leave their careers for familial responsibilities Based on a report by Andrea Zimmermann, a gender expert from the University of Basel, structural barriers and gender bias in recruitment, funding and promotion limit women from further climbing up the ladder in academia. (Simon Bradley, “Progress towards gender equality in Swiss academia remains slow,” Swissinfo.ch, 28 March 2024)

Orlando Bassi company takes over global wig markets
On 30 March, according to Swissinfo.ch, a wig-producing company based in Bali, led by a Swiss national Orlando Bassi, takes over the global market for wigs. His creations are demanded by Hollywood and Broadway productions, for judges and barristers in the United Kingdom and Australia. Manufacturing of wigs is based in Bali Indonesia, however it's shipped via Buchs in Switzerland. The mark of ‘Made in Switzerland’, adds the promise of quality worldwide. The pandemic forced Bassi to shift production for the entertainment industry to the production of “street-style wigs”, which are used as fashion accessories. Post-pandemic, the focus has shifted back to the film industry. ( Janine Gloor, “How Swiss-designed wigs make their way from Bali to the big screen,” Swissinfo.ch, 30 March 2024)
 
TURKEY

Election showdown begins between President Erdoğan and Istanbul mayor Imamoğlu
On 31 March, Euractiv reported on the nationwide municipal elections, where President Tayyip Erdoğan of the Justice and Development Party (AK) party has claimed to regain control from his rival Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu of the opposition People’s Republican Party. The voting took place on Sunday, indicating chances for an Imamoğlu win as the voters expect a political change due to the inefficient government performance and economic inflation. Erdoğan aims to win Istanbul and the capital Ankara. The collapse of the opposition alliance last year, increased Erdoğan’s chances for victory. However, the increased support for the Islamist New Welfare Party, for its stance against Israel and the disgruntled sentiments over the AK Party’s Islamic-rooted handling of the economy also works against Erdoğan. Earlier in the 2019 elections, Erdoğan was defeated by Imamoğlu. (“Turkey local election: Erdoğan battles key rival,” Euractiv, 31 March 2024)
 
THE UK

Polling indicates less than 100 seats for Conservatives in 2024 elections
On 31 March, Politico reported the results of polling which indicated less than 100 seats, approximately 98 seats for the Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. According to the Sunday Times report, the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer is predicted to have a landslide victory and gain 468 seats. According to the report, Nigel Farage’s ring-wing populist party, Reform UK is predicted to win seven seats, with 8.5 per cent, and Liberal Democrats Party would win 22 seats. In Wales and Scotland, it was revealed that the Conservative Party would win zero seats. The poll was conducted by the Survation agency, on behalf of the Best for Britain campaign considering a sample of 15,000 voters. (“UK Conservatives polling below 100 seats, survey shows,” Politico, 31 March 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Belarus and Russia develop action plan to implement scientific and technological development
On 29 March, according to BelTA, Belarus and Russia are developing an action plan for scientific and technological development. Valery Falkov, Russian Minister of Science and Higher Education stated the intention to continue “systemic integration work for the sake of forming the common educational space and the unified scientific and technological space of the Union State of Belarus and Russia” while acknowledging the significant role played by the Kurchatov Institute and other academic institutes in both the countries. He also highlighted the major areas of focus such as genome research, biotechnologies, nuclear medicine, resource-saving power engineering, and high-tech agribusiness. As approved on 29 January 2024, in a session of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Belarus and Russia in St.Petersburg, this strategy will be continued till 2035. (“Action plan in pipeline to implement Belarus-Russia R&D development strategy,” BelTA, 29 March 2024)
 

Venice Commission makes recommendations to Hungary’s 2023 Protection of National Sovereignty Act
On 26 March, according to Hungary Today, the Venice Commission's analysis of Hungary’s Act stated the existing legislation is not focused on recognising the concept of national sovereignty but rather aims at combating only certain hybrid political threats. The recommendations recognised the necessity of protecting electoral processes not only from foreign interference but also from increasing efforts by national governments to deal with hybrid threats. Venice Commission recognised the increasing role played by lobbyist groups and private sponsors in manipulating the political process under the veil of campaigns geared for “strengthening democracies” or “free speech.” These also distort democratic values comparatively more than external autocratic government interference. The Commission’s fears over the Office for the Protection of Sovereignty encroaching on constitutional bodies were met with arguments that the Office only carries monitoring and advisory powers. The Venice Commission also indicated their fears of possible politicisation of the Office and the broad scope of the law, which is not just limited to “electoral context.” The Commission also highlighted how the Office would be able to interfere with the privacy without any review mechanism. (Dániel Deme, “The Venice Commission is ill-equipped to recognise the current hybrid political threats,” Hungary Today, 26 March 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL 

EU and the US to continue cooperation over AI risks and mitigation
On 29 March, according to Euractiv, the EU and the US would continue cooperation on AI risks and mitigation and indicated a potential partnership on generative AI. A joint meeting is to be held to discuss the same would be held on 4 and 5 April. According to a draft joint statement of the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC), the European Commission's AI Office and the US AI Safety Institute would “continue having regular discussions.” The draft statement also indicated that the counterparts have “briefed each other on their approaches and mandates,” and the possibility of developing a framework for evaluating generative AI. (Eliza Gkritsi, “EU and US continue to cooperate on AI, including genAI,” Euractiv, 29 March 2024)


29 March 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #794

EM in Brief: Despite a sanction's regime; Armenia’s trade with Russia increases

Photo : reddit


By Rosemary Kurian

ARMENIA
Despite a sanctions regime; Armenia’s trade with Russia increases
On 28 March, according to Euractiv, Armenia’s exports to Russia tripled in 2022 and doubled in the initial months of 2023 despite the Western sanctions regime, increasing concerns over its relations with Russia. While the political relations between Armenia and Russia have deteriorated, their trade has flourished, especially since the former joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in 2014, making Russia its largest trading partner. According to 2023 data, Russian trade accounted for 35 per cent of Armenia’s foreign trade compared to the EU’s 13 per cent share. Such dependency risks the implementation of any sanctions without guaranteed economic downfall in Armenia. (Anna Pambukhchyan, “Armenia’s exports to Russia raise concerns over sanctions circumvention,” Euractiv, 28 March)
 
FRANCE 
French lower house approves bill banning hair discrimination
On 29 March, according to Deutsche Welle, the French National Assembly approved a bill outlawing any discrimination based on hair and hairstyle with 44 votes in favour and two against. The bill was drafted by Olivier Serva, a Black MP from Guadeloupe, stating that the bill would help the victims of such suffering, especially for Black women who have been observed to be ruled out for jobs because of their hairstyles. The bill also includes redheads, blondes and bald men. After the National Assembly approval, the bill will go to the Senate for approval, but a majority of conservatives in the upper house means that a favourable outcome is less certain. The opponents of the bill call it unnecessary and merely “symbolic” since any discrimination based on looks is already banned by law. Laws to prevent hair discrimination already exist in 20 US states and as guidelines in Britain to prevent such discrimination in schools. (“French National Assembly votes to outlaw hair discrimination.” Deutsche Welle, 29 March 2024)
 
France set to connect Flamanville nuclear reactor to the grid by mid-2024
On 28 March, according to Deutsche Welle, EDF, the French state-owned energy company, announced that it received approval from the nuclear supervisory authority to put a new nuclear reactor in the grid. The reactor, located in Flamanville on the English Channel, is set to be loaded with fuel in the coming weeks. It will be connected to the grid in mid-2024, late by 12 years per initial plans, the construction for which began in 2007. The plant is excessively over budget, with initial planned costs at EUR 3.3 billion and current estimates as high as EUR 12 billion. France is the second largest producer of nuclear energy after the US, and a shift to nuclear energy comes as concerns over global warming increase. France is set to extend the operating life of 32 of its 56 reactors if safety concerns are met. Germany, on the contrary, is phasing down its nuclear power and focusing on renewable sources like wind energy. (“France set to commission new nuclear plant,” Deutsche Welle, 28 March 2024)
 
France condemns the 1961 Algerian massacre in Paris
On 28 March, according to Le Monde, the French Assemblée Nationale approved a resolution condemning a brutal police crackdown on protests supporting the Algerian independence in 1961, calling it “bloody and murderous repression”. The bill was introduced by Sabrina Sebaihi, a Green lawmaker and Julie Delpech, a Renaissance party MP, which was voted in favour by 67 lawmakers and 11 against. Emmanuel Macron, the French President, after years of coverup by the French, condemned the act as “inexcusable” in 2021. The text calls for official commemoration of the massacre, which was undertaken “under the authority of police prefect Maurice Papon”, a Nazi collaborator in the 1980s. Sebaihi described the act as “the first step” towards “recognition of this colonial crime”. (“French lawmakers condemn 1961 Paris massacre of Algerians,” Le Monde, 28 March 2024)
 
France set to provide EUR 30 million to UNRWA
On 28 March, according to Le Monde, France will provide EUR 30 million to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) conditional on the agency’s neutrality, according to the French foreign ministry. Christopher Lemoine, the foreign ministry spokesperson, stated the importance of the aid agency in Gaza, urging that “it must imperatively be able to continue its work”. No timeline for the payments have been given so far. France had funded the agency with EUR 60 million in 2022. The employees of the UNRWA had earlier been accused of their alleged involvement with Hamas’ attacks by Israel leading to a UN investigation into the matter and firing of accused employees. (“France set to provide €30 million to UNRWA Palestine aid agency,” Le Monde, 28 March 2024)
 
THE UK 
Illegal immigrants increase in Britain, putting pressure on Sunak’s government
On 28 March, according to Euractiv, the pressure on the government of Rishi Sunak, the UK’s Prime Minister, increased as 4,644 people were detected arriving illegally via the dangerous English Channel in small boats, a record total in the first three months of 2024. The numbers increased from 3,770 in 2023 and 4,162 in 2022, the credit for which was claimed by Sunak amid concerns over immigration which could determine the election results in favour of the Labour Party. Sunak believed that his scheme to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda will deter people from crossing into the UK, and the plan is due in parliament next month. (“Migrant crossings to UK hit new record, heaping pressure on Sunak,” Euractiv, 28 March 2024)
 
TURKEY 
Istanbul elections to determine the fate of Turkey ahead of 2028 presidential elections
On 28 March, according to the BBC, several Turk voters voted on Sunday to decide the fate of Istanbul and thereby the national elections in 2028. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President born in Istanbul, had lost it to the opposition in 2019 to popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, which the former intends to claim back. Istanbul’s results can be observed as a crucial test for what happens in the 2028 presidential elections and if the opposition can pose a threat to Erdogan’s AK Party. After Erdogan won for a third term in 2023, his main opposition, the secular CHP, aims to claim major cities including Istanbul, Ankara and Antalya. Seda Demiralf, a professor of political science at Isik University, stated that “there is still a strong link between winning Istanbul and winning Turkey”. (Cagil Kasapoglu, “Turkish vote: Battle to run Istanbul becomes key to country's future,” BBC, 28 March 2024)


27 March 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #792

EM in Brief: France and Brazil sign EUR one billion green investment plan

Photo : Nathan Laine/Bloomberg


By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

FRANCE

Macron visits Brazil to boost business
On 25 March, according to Politico, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, travelled to Brazil to convince Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian President, to strengthen ties between both countries through increased investments. An official in Elysée noted that Macron wanted to make up for a “four-year eclipse and a virtual freeze in political relations” during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, in his first official visit to South America. To boost investments in Brazil, especially to promote the green sector, Macron is joined by around 120 French business representatives. He will meet Lula in the tropical metropolis of Belém, which Lula aims to transform into the capital of green transition and host the COP 30 climate conference there. Macron had earlier criticised Brazilian beef exports and a trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur bloc of which Brazil is the largest member, to appease French farmers. Lula had responded by criticising Macron’s protectionist policy. The controversy is set to remain the “elephant in the room” during the bilateral visit. Macron and Lula have differing views on the war in Ukraine, with the former a staunch supporter of Ukraine and the latter continuing his “neutral” position. However, Macron is expected to find common ground, including the reform of the IMF and World Bank where Brazil is underrepresented, as well as taxing the richest, in an attempt to take steps “towards each other.” (Giorgio Leali, “Macron bets on investments and fraternité to charm Lula in first visit to Brazil,” Politico, 25 March 2024)


GERMANY
Government closes seven coal-powered plants after waning energy crisis
On 26 March, according to Euractiv, Germany will shut down seven of its lignite-fired power plants by the end of the month, after their decommissioning was earlier postponed in view of the energy crisis faced in 2022. The Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) has however ensured that the energy security of Germany would not be impacted. After limited supply of Russian gas and faltering of French nuclear energy supply, Germany postponed its decision by another winter in October 2023. COP28 in December urged countries to phase down the use of coal, the most polluting means to generate electricity. Germany has powered down the use of coal to generate electricity, from 33 per cent in 2022 to 26 per cent in 2023. Western Germany claims that it is prepared to achieve its carbon goals in 2030, but experts claim that lack of funding for accessing additional gas for power plants could cause difficulty in achieving the goal. (Nikolaus J Kurmayer, “Germany shutters seven coal power plants as energy crises eases,” Euractiv, 26 March 2024)

ITALY

Officials report increasing security alert level post-Moscow terror attacks
On 25 March, according to Deutsche Welle, Italy follows France in increasing its security alert level through surveillance and checks ahead of the Easter holidays. As discussed in the National Security Council meeting in Rome, increased security is planned owing to the events planned for Easter at the Vatican. The increased security efforts are following the deadly terror attacks carried out by ISIS-K at a concert hall in Moscow. Matteo Piantedosi, Italian Interior Minister stated “Both surveillance and checks will be increased, paying the most attention to the places of greatest aggregation and transit of people, as well as sensitive targets.” (“Moscow attack: Italy joins France in raising security level,”  Deutsche Welle, 25 March 2024)

SLOVAKIA

Subsidy payments to Slovak farmers delayed by state
On 26 March, according to Euractiv, the Slovak Paying Agency (PPA) delayed the payments of EU farm subsidies as direct payments to eligible farmers, with the EU claiming that the situation is out of its hands. Slovakia has paid less than one-third of a total of EUR 336 million received under EU agricultural subsidies to farmers that applied. The PPA is responsible “to pay 100 per cent of direct payments until 30 June 2024”, according to Olof Gill, the European Commission spokesperson. Gill explained that while the system is set up by the EU, the member countries “are responsible for setting up a management and control system for payments that comply with EU regulations”. Several farmers are facing debt with no salaries, forced to sell off their assets due to the delay in accessing subsidies, a situation described as “catastrophic” by Emil Macho, president of the Slovak Chamber of Agriculture and Food (SPPK). The SPPK earlier blamed the EU’s “green fanaticism” for the farmers’ plight, but now expresses its discontent for the Slovak government. (Maroš Koreň and Natália Silenská, “Slovakia delays payments to farmers, EU can’t intervene,” Euractiv, 26 March 2024)

SWITZERLAND

FSO data reveals the highest life satisfaction for Swiss citizens
On 26 March, Swissinfo reported on data revealed by Switzerland’s Federal Statistics Office (FSO) indicating Swiss citizens enjoy the highest level of life satisfaction in the entire Europe in 2022. According to the data, Switzerland reached the highest life satisfaction score of 8 out of 10, compared to other European countries, Austria (7.9), Italy (7.2), France (7) and Germany (6.5). Despite the high general satisfaction level in Switzerland, one in ten people face financial difficulty and one-fourth of the deprived people expressed that they are depressed or discouraged. The poverty rate in Switzerland was 8.2 per cent which accounts for 702,000 people and comprises mostly foreign nationals, single-parent households, and households with no education and employment. Whereas the poverty rate among the working population was 3.8 per cent accounting for 144,000 people. (“Swiss life satisfaction ‘the highest in Europe,” Swissinfo.chDeutsche Welle
 
REGIONAL 

EU directs big techs to secure the EU elections through new tech law
On 26 March, according to Politico, the European Union ordered major tech firms including Facebook, X, YouTube and TikTok to aid it in securing its elections in June amid concerns over disinformation and online threats. The EU introduced the Digital Services Act (DSA), their new content moderation law, to help the bloc in fighting disinformation. New guidelines were introduced to prevent the circulation of false content, Russian bot campaigns and deepfakes, with firms failing to comply facing up to six per cent of their annual global revenue. Thierry Breton, the Internal Market Commissioner, stated that the EU expected “hybrid attacks or foreign interferences” which need more than “half-baked measures.” Big Tech firms have been asked to label AI deepfakes and political advertisements, with specialised teams asked to monitor potential threats in the 27 member countries. The online platforms are also expected to have algorithms that entertain diverse content without excessive polarisation, as was the case witnessed during Finland’s elections. (Clothilde Goujard, “Europe wields new tech law to protect EU election,” Politico, 26 March 2024)
  
INTERNATIONAL

Germany’s top diplomat arrives in Egypt to ease humanitarian situation in Gaza
On 25 March, Deutsche Welle reported on Annalena Baerbock, the German Foreign Minister’s meeting with Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian Foreign Minister to discuss the deteriorating humanitarian scenario in Gaza. She urged Israel and Hamas to undertake concessions in the negotiations in Qatar. Baerbock gave the following statement before her visit, “Only an immediate humanitarian cease-fire that leads to a permanent cease-fire will keep the hope for peace alive — for Palestinians and Israelis alike.” She is scheduled for her sixth visit to Israel to meet Israel Katz, Israeli Foreign Minister. Expressing concerns about Israel’s offensive into Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza, she highlighted the actions of the Israeli military and their consequences on the civilians. (“Germany's Baerbock in Egypt for Gaza crisis talks,” Deutsche Welle, 25 March 2024)
 

US and UK accuse Chinese hacking group of “malicious” cyber campaigns
On 26 March, according to Deutsche Welle, US and UK officials accused the Chinese hacking group APT31 which stands for - “advanced persistent threat” for their involvement in malicious cyber campaigns. Oliver Dowden, UK’s Deputy Prime Minister stated that attacks by the hacking group had been compromised by the electoral commission and UK parliamentary accounts however email accounts of UK lawmakers were not compromised. GCHQ, the UK’s intelligence agency confirmed involvement of the group in compromising UK Electoral Commission systems between 2021 and 2022. US Treasury Department reported sanctioning Wuhan Xiaoruizhi Science and Technology Company Ltd accusing their involvement in “multiple malicious cyber operations,” targeting US sectors such as defence, aerospace and energy. Dowden stated the UK’s sanctions on an entity affiliated with APT31. Lisa Monaco, US Deputy Attorney General stated that these hackers aimed to “repress critics of the Chinese regime, compromise government institutions, and steal trade secrets.” ( “US, UK accuse China-linked hackers of spy campaign,” Deutsche Welle, 26 March 2024)

UK High Court delays ruling on Julian Assange’s extradition to the US
On 26 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the delayed ruling by UK High Court judges on Julian Assange’s extradition to the US and requested assurance that he would not be subjected to the death penalty in the US if extradited. Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, and whistleblower leaked some of the most classified documents regarding operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and NATO presence in these countries. The US government believes that his actions were beyond journalism and had risked innocent lives by publishing classified information. Out of nine issues appealed, the judges only recognised three issues; freedom of speech, concern regarding the disadvantages as he is not a US Citizen and the risk of the death penalty. Assange faces 17 espionage charges, one charge regarding computer misuse and would be sentenced to a jail term of up to 175 years if convicted. Australian politicians have appealed for Assange, who is an Australian citizen to be returned there. UK High Court judges Victoria Sharp and Jeremy Johnson have adjourned the case until May 20. (“Julian Assange can appeal extradition, UK High Court rules,” Deutsche Welle, 26 March 2024)

Violent farmers protest in Brussels
On 26 March, according to Politico, a farmers’ protest with 250 tractors in Brussels turned violent with protestors using firebombs and throwing debris at law enforcement officials. Several tractors encircled the Place du Luxembourg outside the European Parliament, demonstrating their dissatisfaction with the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that they claim was destroying their business. Others halted the traffic along one of the busiest routes in Brussels– Rue de la Roi– and set piles of hay and tires on fire in addition to throwing eggs and burnt debris at police officers. Leonardo van den Berg, a board member of European Coordination Via Campesina (ECVC), noted that the “farmers are desperate”. Police employed the use of tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds. One person was arrested for throwing molotov cocktails at law enforcement and two police officers were reported injured. Annelies Verlinden, the Belgian Interior Minister, condemned the protests, calling “violence, arson and destruction” “unacceptable”. (Claudia Chiappa, Bartosz Brzezinski, Paula Andrés, Denis Leven and Ali Walker, “Farmers’ protest: Police use tear gas and water cannons to quell violent Brussels demoPolitico, 26 March 2024)


26 March 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #791

Europe In Brief: French Government increases security patrols post Moscow terror attacks

Photo : Joris van Gennip/Hollandse Hoogte/picture alliance


By Alka Bala

ESTONIA

State observes 75th anniversary of March deportations
On 25 March, according to ERR News, Estonia held commemorative ceremonies on Monday to observe the 75th anniversary of the March deportations. In March 1949, 22,000 people from Estonia and more than a total of 90,000 people from the Baltic states were deported to Siberia. Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defense laid a wreath at the Victims of Communism Memorial, to remember the victims of the deportations. Traditions included lighting candles on Freedom Square in Tallinn and hoisting of mourning flags. The Estonian Memory Institute plans to establish informative plaques in multiple languages whereas a red light installation is to be projected on the seaward-facing side of the Patarei Sea Fortress. The Estonian National Museum in its permanent exhibition “Encounters” included items that deported people carried to Siberia (“Estonia marks 75th anniversary of March deportations,” ERR News, 25 March 2024)
 
FRANCE

Government increases security patrols post Moscow terror attacks
On 25 March, according to Deutsche Welle, France was reported to have increased its armed patrols in public places after the Moscow terrorist attacks which killed 137 people and injured 140. "Islamic State Khorasan Province" (IS-K) group claimed responsibility for the Moscow attacks. Afghanistan-based IS-K is one of the dangerous branches of the Islamic- State group responsible for the death of thousands in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Gabriel Attal, French Prime Minister stated on French security “We have decided to raise the Vigipirate state to its highest level: attack emergency.” France had been on high alert already as it awaits the Paris Olympics and Paralympics this year. (“France raises terror alert after Moscow theater attack,” Deutsche Welle, 25 March 2024)
 
LATVIA

Measures fo Russian citizens and supporters in Latvia 
On 26 March, Eng.lsm.lv reported on the number of Russian citizens in Latvia who supported Putin in the Presidential elections. “De facto,” broadcast by Latvian Television aimed to shed light on steps taken to reduce Kremlin and war supporters in Latvia. The residency permit to stay in Latvia of the eligible voters was checked, and four people were ordered to be deported as their permits had expired. State language tests are also conducted for Russian citizens to prove their Latvian language skills. Russian citizens are also required to submit documents stating their views on Russia’s occupation of Ukraine. Some 100 Russian citizens who did not complete these forms were banned from their stay in Latvia. Russian citizens reported lying on the forms and questionnaires regarding Crimea and Donbas receiving their pensions. Since the beginning of the war, Latvia has blacklisted 79 Russian citizens and has banned them from entering Latvia. State Security Service of Latvia has indicated cases of Russian propaganda and misinformation regarding Latvia’s public authorities. (“What to do about Kremlin supporters in Latvia?,” Eng.lsm.lv, 25 March 2024)
 
THE UK

Thousands of nurses quit to work abroad
On 25 March, The Guardian reported on the large number of UK-registered foreign nurses leaving the UK to work abroad. The number of nurses moving abroad in 2022-23 reached a record 12,400, where most of them move to the US, New Zealand or Australia which provide higher wages for nurses. UK’s National Health Service is already understaffed and has around 40,000 vacancies which are usually filled by foreign nurses. According to the Royal College of Nursing (RNC), the increasing migration of nurses abroad is due to the decline in pay for nurses since 2010. Prof Pat Cullen, RCN’s chief executive and general secretary expressed his worries about the patient needs being unmet, poor pay and working conditions and stated that “UK’s healthcare services unable to compete on the world stage.. It’s no joke that nurse pay in the UK is joint bottom of 35 OECD countries.” Elaine Kelly, assistant director at Health Foundation’s research centre stated the costly nature of this brain rain, as “it cost the NHS about £10,000 to replace each foreign recruit who then moved elsewhere.” ( Dennis Campbell, “Thousands of foreign nurses a year leave UK to work abroad,” The Guardian, 25 March 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU initiates investigations into tech giants Apple, Google, Meta
On 25 March, according to Deutsche Welle, the EU began a probe into the tech giants Apple, Google, and Meta based on their “non-compliance” with its Digital Markets Act. The law ensures that big tech companies provide consumers with more choices by practising fairer digital market rules. Thierry Breton EU's internal market commissioner expressed that solutions adopted by Alphabet (Google's parent company), Meta and Apple are not enough and should “respect their obligations for a fairer and more open digital space for European citizens and businesses.” These companies are liable to pay 10 per cent of their global turnover if found guilty in the investigation. The investigations have garnered criticism from the tech lobby as the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) called it a “worrying signal,” and that the EU was rushing into investigations.  Oliver Bethell, Google’s director of competition remarked, “We will continue to defend our approach in the coming months.” (“EU probes Apple, Google, Meta under new digital law,” Deutsche Welle, 25 March 2024)
 

Data reveals France lagging behind the EU in accepting Ukrainian refugees
On 25 March, Politico reported on the data indicating the relocation of 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees to different countries of the European Union. EU’s “temporary protection” status allows refugees to live, work and study within EU borders. As of January, 64,720 Ukrainian refugees were present in France, whereas other countries like Germany and Poland had 1.2 million and one million refugees respectively. Data reveals that countries such as the Baltics, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria are hosting 25 refugees per 1000 citizens, far more than France hosting fewer than 1 per 1000 citizens. French language, geographical proximity to Ukraine, refugee financial support, and community networks are factors that determine refugee relocation and France seems to lag behind these aspects for Ukrainians. French paperwork and long bureaucratic processes also act as hindrances for refugees. ( Hanne Cokelaere and Clea Caulcutt, “Why Ukraine’s refugees aren’t going to France,” Politico, 25 March 2024)
 

Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, and Malta voice their “readiness to recognise Palestine”
On 22 March, according to Euronews, leaders of Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Malta discussed their “readiness to recognise Palestine”, and released a joint statement expressing “that the only way to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region is through implementation of a two-state solution.” Robert Golob, Slovenian Prime Minister stated that the political backing for Palestine could be strengthened in the United Nations in the next week. On 21 March, the EU unanimously called for a ceasefire in Gaza. Pedro Sánchez, Spanish Prime Minister expressed that recognition of statehood for Palestine is one of his main priorities in his foreign policy. He also stated how these four countries represented multiple sides of the political spectrum, as Spain and Malta have centre-left parties Slovenia is governed by a liberal party, and Ireland has a centre-right party. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, Malta say they are ready to recognise the State of Palestine,” Euronews, 25 March 2024)
 

EU’s nature restoration bill collapses as eight member states withdrew support
On 25 March, according to The Guardian, the EU’s nature restoration law on reversing the damage to terrestrial and aquatic wildlife was shelved as the eight member states withdrew their support. Virginijus Sinkevičius, European environment commissioner stated that shelving the bill would destroy the EU’s global reputation and most importantly highlighted that the EU would  “ risk going to Cop16 absolutely empty-handed.” Teresa Ribera, Spanish Environment Minister stated that the EU “cannot afford” to abandon its green goals and it would be irresponsible to do so. The bill which had been in the making for two years, lost its momentum as Sweden, the Netherlands, Italy and Hungary opposed it and Austria, Belgium, Finland and Poland decided to abstain. Opposing countries believe the nature restoration law would burden the farmers who are already protesting throughout Europe against the EU’s green policies and trading practices. ( Lisa O’Carroll, “EU nature restoration laws face collapse as member states withdraw support,” The Guardian, 25 March 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Blinken meets NATO’s “close Baltic allies”
On 25 March, Eng.lsm.lv reported on the meeting between Anthony Blinken US Secretary of State and the Foreign Ministers of the three Baltic states Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Blinken stated the budgetary contributions by the Baltic countries to NATO and also added that their support for Ukraine has been “absolutely vital.” Krišjānis Kariņš, Latvia’s Foreign Minister expressed  “We're deeply united in our basic values – freedom, democracy, the rule of law.” Referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine, he underscored that combined efforts of the Baltic states and NATO will prevent evil from spreading. (“Blinken: Baltic states are "leading the way in NATO,” Eng.lsm.lv, 25 March 2024)


25 March 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #790

EM in Brief: 25 years since NATO’s air bombing of Yugoslavia

Simon Harris to become Ireland’s youngest Prime Minister; Luis Montenegro appointed as Prime Minister; Aims to form a minority government

Photo : Rferl.org


This Week In History: 25 years since NATO’s air bombing of Yugoslavia
On 24 March marked the 25 years of NATOs air campaign on Serbian forces in Kosovo in an attempt to end the ethnic cleansing of Albanians. In Kosovo, one of its provinces, known as Yugoslavia, witnessed the first humanitarian intervention pushed by the US. The intervention began after Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic denial to sign to agree on an interim autonomy for Kosovo due to concerns over deployment of international forces in Yugoslavia. While the UN Security Council called it as violation of international law, the refusal sparked NATO’s intervention of 78 days till 10 June 1999. During this period, 14,000 bombs were dropped and 2,000 missiles fired, killing 2500 people and injury of 12,500. According to the statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry on 24 March, the interventions caused damage to many civilian infrastructures such as residential, hospitals, schools, mass transit vehicles and refugee groups. The intention of the air campaign was to force Milosevic to agree on ending the campaign against the Kosovo. By 10 June 1999, NATO’s air campaign ended with signing of the Kumanovo Agreement and the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1244. This resulted in ousting of Milosevic, withdrawal of all Yugoslav military forces and deployment of international peacekeepers. (“Far-Right Activists In Serbia Mark 25th Anniversary Of NATO Bombing,” rferl, 25 March 2024; “Foreign Ministry statement in connection with the 25th anniversary of NATO aggression against Yugoslavia,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 24 March 2024; Keida Kostreci “25 Years After NATO's Intervention, Serbia, Kosovo and the War in Ukraine,” Voanews, 23 March 2024; Maja Zivanovic and Serbeze Haxhiaj, “78 Days of Fear: Remembering NATO’s Bombing of Yugoslavia,” Balkan Insight, 22 March 2019)

GERMANY

Cannabis possession and home cultivation to be decriminalised from 01 April 
On 22 March, Politico reported on the law decriminalising cannabis possession and home cultivation, passed in Bundesrat, the German chamber of federal states. According to the law, Adults over 18 years are allowed to possess up to 25 grams of cannabis and grow up to three plants at home. It also allows “cannabis clubs” to supply up to 500 members with a maximum monthly quantity of 50 grams per member. Cannabis clubs would also be subjected to regular inspections instead of annual inspections. Karl Lauterbach, German Health Minister remarked this law marks “the beginning of the end for the black market,” and asked to use the “new option responsibly.” Law garnered criticism stating the permitted amount of cannabis possession to be high and the lack of prohibition zones around schools and kindergartens. The decriminalisation law will be followed by the setting up of state-controlled cannabis sold in licensed shops, after the setting up of municipal five-year pilot programmes. (Peter Wilke, “Cannabis will be legal in Germany within days,” Politico, 22 March 2024)
 
IRELAND

Simon Harris to become Ireland’s youngest Prime Minister
On 24 March, according to Le Monde, Simon Harris is set to become Ireland’s youngest prime minister at 37 after he acquired the leadership of the Fine Gael party after receiving a series of endorsements from the party members. Simon Coveney, deputy leader of the Fine Gael party stated, “I think he's done a really good job in securing the leadership in as comprehensive a way as he has.” Harris, Ireland’s Further and Higher Education Minister, would be replacing Leo Varadkar as Prime Minister who resigned the previous week. Harris stated his commitment to the government programme agreed upon by the coalition of Fianna Fail and the Green Party. (“Simon Harris set to become Ireland's youngest prime minister,” Le Monde, 24 March 2024)
 
PORTUGAL

Luis Montenegro appointed as Prime Minister; Aims to form a minority government
On 21 March, according to Le Monde Luis Montenegro, the leader of the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) was appointed as Portugal’s Prime Minister. AD won 79 seats in the 230-seat parliament followed by Socialist Party (PS) which won 77 seats. Montenegro would replace Antonio Costa from the Socialist Party as the prime minister. Although the Democratic Alliance has garnered the support of the Liberal Initiative party, it would still need to form a coalition with the anti-immigration party Chega to form a majority government. However, Montenegro aims to form a minority government, thus ruling out the coalition. Andre Ventura, leader of Chega has cautioned against rejecting the coalition as it would result in political instability. (“Luis Montenegro appointed Portugal's prime minister,” Le Monde, 21 March 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Soyuz rocket successfully launched to the International Space Station
On 23 March, Le Monde reported the successful launch of Soyuz, a Russian rocket carrying NASA astronaut Tracy Dyson, Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg Novitskiy and the first Belarus astronaut Marina Vasilevskaya. The Soyuz rocket was scheduled to launch on 21 March from Kazakhstan but was aborted due to last minute voltage drop in a power source, as stated by Yuri Borisov, head of Roscomos, Russian space agency. Due to the delayed launch, the space capsule would now take a two-day 34-orbit journey, compared to the 2-orbit journey. The space capsule is expected to dock at the International Space Station at 1510 GMT on Monday. (“Russian Soyuz rocket successfully blasts off to ISS,” Le Monde, 23 March 2024)
 
SLOVAKIA

Pro-EU candidate Ivan Korčok wins first round in Presidential elections
On 23 March, according to Politico Pro-EU candidate Ivan Korčok won the first round in Slovakia’s Presidential elections with  42 per cent support from 99 districts. Peter Pellegrini, came in second with 37 per cent. The runoff ballot is scheduled to take place on 6 April. Korčok has previously held the portfolio of foreign minister from 2020-2023, permanent representative to the EU, and ambassador to Germany and the US. Peter Pellegrini has previously served as Slovak prime minister in 2018 and the speaker of the parliament since September’s general election. Pellegrini has agreed to hold multiple rounds of debates before the second round of elections.
 
SWITZERLAND

FSO reveals a rise in salaries while living costs remain higher
On 20 March, according to Swissinfo, the Federal Statistics Office (FSO) reported an increase in the median monthly pre-tax salary at 6,788 CHF in 2022, an increase of 123 CHF compared to 2020. The income gaps between different categories of earners, low, middle and top have been “relatively stable” while the report also indicated the gender pay gaps slowly narrowing. The gender pay gap was reduced to 9.5 per cent in 2022, compared to 11.5 per cent in 2018. Even as the salaries in Switzerland remain one of the highest in the world, the cost of living in Swiss cities such as Zurich and Geneva which rank as “most expensive cities” render such high incomes inadequate to meet living expenses. The tax and pension deductions, costly average rents (1,412 CHF per apartment in 2022), and rising health insurance and transportation costs make a dent in one’s salary. The report indicated that 14.5 per cent of the Swiss population is “at risk of poverty.” (Domhnall O’Sullivan, “Swiss salaries: high, stable, yet not enough for manySwissinfo.ch, 20 March 2024) 

THE UK

Wapsi group demands compensation over government’s failure to inform of changes in state pension age
On 21 March, the BBC reported on the report by the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman (PHSO) which stated the government’s failure to inform women of the impact of changes to the state pension Act. Women Against State Pension Inequality (Waspi) group, demands compensation for 2.6 million women affected by the 2011 Pensions Act. The 2011 Pensions Act increased the qualifying age of women for the state pension to 65 years from the earlier 60 years. Waspi group believes that the changes were not adequately communicated to women, which resulted in longer work life for them. The act mostly affected the 300,000 women born between December 1953 and October 1954, who had to wait for an extra 18 months to reach their State pension age. Wapsi thus demands payment for those women who have attained the state retirement age and for women who await their state pension. This would amount to up to 36 billion pounds for the government. PHSO although cannot enforce compensation, it is responsible for investigating women’s complaints against the government. PHSO has asked for parliamentary intervention on the same. ( Jennifer Clarke, “Who are the Waspi women, and will they get compensation over state pension changes?” BBC, 21 March 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

French Senate rejects CETA deal
On 21 March, according to Euractiv, the French Senate rejected CETA, the trade deal between the EU and Canada owing to its potential impact on French livestock farming. The bill was rejected by the majority of the Senate with 211 votes to 255. Although the commercial part of the deal has been implemented since 2017, the EU needs the approval of its 27 member states to fully ratify CETA. Franck Riester, French Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade insisted that the deal was “good for our economy, our businesses, our agriculture and our strategic relationship with Canada” quoting the 33 per cent increase in French exports to Canada in the last 6 years. However this claim was met with the criticism by Senator Laurent Duplomb of Les Républicains that the increase in exports was not in volume, but in value due to the inflation. The Veblen Institute highlighted that the trade between France and Canada had increased only 0.7 per cent in terms of volume between 2017 and 2022. The bill awaits debate and voting in the National Assembly which would determine if it gets ratified. Currently, 17 EU member states have ratified CETA, whereas Cyprus rejected the ratification. ( Hugo Struna, “French Senate rejects EU-Canada free trade deal,” Euractiv, 21 March 2024)


23 March 2024, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #789

EM in Brief: Launch of Russian Spacecraft to ISS aborted

Grossi warns of global warming use of nuclear energy in Europe; Macron urges EU leaders to increase defence spending

Photo : AP/Le Monde


By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

RUSSIA
Launch of Russian Spacecraft to ISS aborted
On 21 March, according to Le Monde, the launch of the Russian spacecraft Soyuz MS-25 due to take off from Kazakhstan was aborted at the last minute. The spacecraft carrying three astronauts from Russia, the United States and Belarus was cancelled 20 seconds before the launch through an announcement by Roscomos, the Russian Space Agency. Although there had been no comment from Roscomos on the launch failure, a NASA broadcast elaborated that the failure of “engine sequence start” led to an "automatic command to abort the countdown." The crew on board was reported to be safe and had been transported to their crew quarters. The mission planned to launch Marina Vasilevskaya, the first Belarusian astronaut into space. (“Russian spacecraft aborts launch to ISS,” Le Monde, 21 March 2024)
 
FRANCE

Macron urges EU leaders to increase defence spending
On 21 March, according to Financial Times, Emmanuel Macron, the French President is set to urge leaders at the EU summit to increase defence funding, in the backdrop of Russia’s threat, Europe’s struggles to increase support for Ukraine and the possibility of withdrawal of the US support if Donald Trump ascends presidency. The demand arises as the bloc explores innovative solutions to fund increased defence spending. One of the proposals includes the use of earnings from frozen Russian assets, to invest more in defence and use the funds for weapons for Ukraine. However, this has been met with opposition as countries show concern over the legality of the same. The joint borrowing option was discussed but later ruled out by Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark. Charles Michel, European Council President voiced his support for European defence bonds as “…a powerful means to strengthen our technological innovation and industrial base.” (Henry Foy, Paola Tamma, Leila Abboud, and Guy Chazan, “Emmanuel Macron to revive demands for European defence bonds,” Financial Times, 21 March 2024)
 
REGIONAL 

Report indicates lack of competitiveness for EU fisheries sector
On 21 March, Euractiv reported on the study presented at the European Parliament on the EU fisheries sector, which indicated the EU’s increased dependency on imports of seafood products. According to the report, the EU fisheries sector faces a lack of competitiveness, challenges of unfair competition and increased imports from third countries. Experts attribute Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, increased subsidies and low labour costs in third countries as the reasons for unfair competition. Martin Aranda, co-author of the study, stated that “imported fishery and aquaculture products do not meet European environmental and social sustainability requirements.” The report emphasised the EU to ensure that imported products comply with conservation and management regulations as outlined in the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). This demands “increased inspections at the place of origin to check compliance with European standards, as well as at the EU’s borders” as stated by Aranda. The scientists have urged increased support for research and innovation to achieve a more sustainable and productive aquaculture. ( Hugo Struna, “EU must protect fishing industry from unfair competition, study warns,” Euractiv, 21 March 2024)
 

Europe’s wind power industry confident on reaching EU’s targets 
On 22 March, according to Euractiv, Europe’s wind power industry is “back on track” as stated by Giles Dickson, CEO of the industry association WindEurope as the industry concludes the end of instability and high-interest rates and prices ushered with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There has been a 70 per cent increase in the approval of permits in Germany and Danish company Vestas reaps profits, with the company installing two new factories in Poland and three foundation factories in Europe. According to Dickson, the EU’s new binding rules on emergency permitting for national governments have simplified the permit process. Germany’s conception of renewables overriding public interest has become reformative in Europe. ( Nikolaus J Kurmayer, “Europe’s wind power targets ‘back on track’,” Euractiv, 22 March 2024)
 

EU agrees to curb imports from Kyiv, post farmers’ protests
On 20 March, according to Financial Times, the EU agreed to curb imports of Ukrainian food items starting from 06 June as a result of domestic protests across Europe. According to a provisional deal, the EU will impose tariffs on Ukrainian poultry, eggs, sugar, oats, maize, honey and groats if the quantity imported surpasses the mean average imported in 2022 and 2023. The EU is also planning to impose tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grains, which has been demanded by the Ukrainian and the East European governments.  In Poland and France, the agricultural lobbies protested intending to increase restrictions on imports to lower the imports back to pre-war levels. However, their efforts were blocked by Germany, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands. Marc Fesneau, French Agricultural Minister stated that solidarity should not be “…at the cost of excessive destabilisation of agricultural markets.” (Andy Bounds, “EU agrees fresh curbs on Ukrainian food after farmers protests,” Financial Times, 20 March 2024)

Commission recommends start of accession talks for Bosnia and Herzegovina
On 21 March, according to the BBC, the European Commission recommended that Bosnia and Herzegovina begin negotiation processes for its membership into the EU, eight years after it applied to join the bloc. The Baltic country was given a green light by leaders of the EU as Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, congratulated the country, welcoming them into their “European family.” Borjana Krišto, the Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, stated the importance of “mutual determination and effort” in having achieved the feat. Leaders of Germany and Croatia welcomed the country, which has over the past years passed laws focusing on democratisation as a criteria to join the bloc. (“EU: Bosnia and Herzegovina to begin talks to join blocBBC, 21 March 2024)
 

Grossi warns of global warming use of nuclear energy in Europe
On 21 March, according to Deutsche Welle, Rafael Grossi, the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted the importance of the role of nuclear energy to secure the goal of low carbon emissions compared to fossil fuels, but highlighted the challenges faced due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Grossi stressed on the “international consensus” reached to include nuclear energy in tackling global warming, especially for Europe. However, with Russia being a key supplier of fuel for nuclear power plants, the attempts at reducing the reliance on Russia by the US and Europe might take some time. Currently, “the majority of the market” for supply lies with Russia. He further emphasised on the dangers posed by the war to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the front lines, a catastrophe that has so far been prevented due to certain guidelines by the UN Security Council. Grossi predicted that “probably within the next four or five years,” Western Europe and North America will witness the arrival of the first Small Modular Reactors (SMR), which have one-third the capacity of regular large nuclear power plants but which are cheaper and easier to install for regions with limited grid coverage. (Alex Berry, “Nuclear energy offers fossil fuel alternative — IAEA chief”, Deutsche Welle, 21 March 2024)


21 March 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #787

Strikes of junior doctors continue demanding pay rise

Study finds girls from 14 to 17 ages to be victim of sexual violence in Spain; Prime Minister resigns claims personal and political reasons in Ireland

Photo : PA Media


Europe In Brief
By Rosemary Kurian

GERMANY
Tesla’s new working council assures wage changes
On 10 March, Frankfurter Allgemeine reported that the Tesla factory in Berlin will be electing a new works council. The election at Tesla’s sole factory in Europe came to an end on 13 March. The works council has 39 seats with 234 candidates having contested the elections. With more than 12,500 people employed in the factory, IG Metall, Germany’s largest metal union, wishes to increase its influence in the plant by demanding better working conditions. Tesla stated that several of the demands are already in practice and rejected a collective bargaining agreement. With Michaela Schmitz, the previous chairwoman of the council standing for re-election, Dirk Schulze, the district manager of Berlin-Brandenburg-Saxony, has accused the previous council as failing to side with the workforce. Schmitz rejected the allegation, stating that their council brought about an 18 per cent increase in salary without any collective agreement. Tesla has stated that they are willing to offer annual wage changes. (“Tesla has elected a works council”, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 20 March 2024)
 
IRELAND

Prime Minister resigns claims personal and political reasons
On 20 March, according to Le Monde, Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Prime Minister, announced his resignation from the office and as the leader of the Fine Gael party in a surprise move, claiming “personal and political” reasons. Varadkar stated that he would resign the office of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) as soon as he finds a replacement, stating that he is no longer “the best person” to lead Ireland. He had earlier faced a defeat in what was deemed the ‘biggest ever referendum loss by a government’ in his policy to reform references for women, family and care. Experts have noted that the “unexpected” resignation ahead of local elections in Ireland and if the European Parliament will cause a “political earthquake.” (“Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announces shock resignation,” Le Monde, 20 March 2024)
 
SPAIN

Study finds girls from 14 to 17 ages to be victim of sexual violence
On 20 March, EL PAÍS reported on a study by the University of Barcelona that found that one in four girls in the age group of 14 to 17 years has been a victim of sexual violence in Spain, based on a survey of 4,024 respondents. 11 per cent of boys have also suffered from sexual violence. 17.8 per cent of adolescents in the specified age group have experienced requests of sexual nature through the internet, touching, penetration, oral sex and exploitation. The study found that women were at the receiving end of violence more than men in all categories, which included 14 variables. But men face very severe of violence more frequently, it notes. “The main victimisation is electronics,” it noted, citing greater access to pornography at an early age. Pereda, one of the survey conductors, noted that such violence faced in the developmental stage could have “an impact on later stages of life,” The report recommended proper sex education programs at a comprehensive level to be included in the school curriculums at a state level. (María Sosa Troya, “One in four girls aged 14 to 17 has been a victim of sexual violence in Spain in the last year,”  EL PAÍS, 20 March 2024)
 
THE UK

Strikes of junior doctors continue demanding pay rise
On 20 March, the BBC reported on the decision by junior doctors to continue their strike for the pay dispute. The British Medical Association (BMA) demanded a pay rise of 35 per cent for junior doctors. 98 per cent of the BMA members voted for further walkouts. Around 10 walkouts by junior doctors have been recorded so far since March 2023. The fresh vote means an extension of the strike mandate for a further six months. The government deemed their demands “unreasonable.” Robert Laurenson and Vivek Trivedi, co-chairs of the junior doctors committee, urged the health secretary to make a new offer to prevent future strikes. A spokesperson of the Department of Health and Social Care called the vote “disappointing,” calling the BMA back from negotiations to strike a “fair deal,” since further strikes will “impede the progress” in tackling hospital backlogs. Junior doctors' pay rise this year was a nine per cent average. The BMA’s 35 per cent demand is to make up for 15 years of pay rises below inflation rates. Junior doctors from Wales and Northern Ireland are also participating in the strikes. Since the strikes by doctors, nurses and other health care professionals began in December 2022, more than 1.4 million operations and appointments have been cancelled. But while other concerns have been resolved, the junior doctors remain concerned. The NHS is concerned that further strike actions will “inevitably lead to more disruption to patient care.” (Nick Triggle, “Junior doctors vote to continue strike action,” BBC, 20 March 2024)
 

Rishi Sunak reject call for general elections
On 20 March, the BBC reported that Rishi Sunak, the British Prime Minister, rejected calls for immediate general elections, which would instead happen during the second half of 2024. Answering questions by Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour Party leader, during a session of Prime Minister’s Questions, Sunak addressed questions on the Tory MPs plot to replace him before general elections. Sir Starmer stated that the PM was “scared” to face the vote after his immigration policy and record on mortgage rates. The opinion polls suggest that the Conservatives have fallen far behind Labour after Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s tax-cutting budget. Sunak had achieved great inflation figures, claiming his plan for Britain was working. Sir Starmer questioned Sunak on the plot to replace him, hinting at the reported prospect of Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, or Tom Tugendhat, the security minister replacing him after a confidence vote. Sunak jeered back with Labour not backing the Rwanda bill and not caring about “fixing” the immigration system, hinting at Sir Starmer calling his policy a “gimmick.” (Brian Wheeler, “Rishi Sunak rejects Labour call for general election now,” BBC, 20 March 2024)
 
REGIONAL

International Olympic Committee to bar Belarusian and Russian athletes
On 20 March, BBC reported on the decision by the International Olympic Committee to not allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to be a part of the opening ceremony of the 2024 Paris Olympics. The qualifying players are however allowed to participate under neutrality. Till now, there are 12 neutral athletes with Russian and seven neutral athletes with Belarusian passports respectively. The decision to ban players from the two countries was taken after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The qualified players have however been instructed to compete without any flags, emblems or anthems of their country. Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman expressed that Russia was “outraged” by the IOM’s decision, calling them “unprecedented discriminatory practices.” Meanwhile, Russia wants to host the ‘Friendship Games’ in September 2024, with a winter Games planned in 2026. Friendship Games was first organised by the USSR and eight other states after they boycotted the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. The IOC called the decision a “blatant violation of the Olympic Charter” and a “cynical attempt by the Russian Federation to politicise sport.” (“Paris 2024 Olympics: Russia & Belarus athletes will not be part of opening ceremony,” BBC, 20 March 2024)
 

Bulgaria and Romanis to join the Schengen zone by March
On 20 March, Euro News reported the joining of Bulgaria and Romania into the Schengen zone, which will officially take place on 31 March. The Schengen zone allows free movement between member states as part of the Schengen agreement. Both the Balkan states joined the EU in 2007, but were obliged to show passports upon entry into the territory of other EU states. But the decision to simplify borders would bring about several changes for the states, which haven’t as yet decided to adopt the Euro as their official currency. There are speculations as to whether the two countries will raise their prices like the recent Schengen entrant Croatia, which could affect tourism. Bulgaria and Romania are set to witness increased tourism and greater economic opportunities by joining the Schengen area. (Saskia O'Donoghue, “The Balkan countries will officially enter the Schengen zone on 31 March”, Euronews, 20 March 2024)


20 March 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #786

EM in Brief: Finland continues to be the happiest country in the world

France’s Competition Authority fines Google; NATO to expand its military base in Romania’s Black Sea port

Photo : Jussi Nukari/Lehtikuva/AFP


By Padmashree Anandhan

FINLAND
Continues to be the happiest country in the world
On 20 March, the world happiness report published the top 10 countries in the happiness index. According to the report, Finland continued to be the happiest country for seventh time along with other Nordic countries, Sweden, Denmark and Iceland placed in the top. It also found increasing unhappiness amongst the youth in western countries especially with the US and Germany dropping down from top 20. This was replaced by new two countries, Costa Rica and Kuwait in 12 and 13 places whereas eastern European, Serbia, Bulgaria and Latvia also highlighted increase in happiness. It was a grim picture for Afghanistan following the Taliban take over which remained the last one in the list. According to Jennifer De Paola, a happiness researcher at the University of Helsinki: “Finnish society is permeated by a sense of trust, freedom, and high level of autonomy.” Combined with this, the strong welfare society and low corruption and free access to healthcare and education were the key components for Finland to top the index. (“Finland ranked world's happiest country for seventh year,” Deutsche Welle, 20 March 2024)

FRANCE
Operation launched to curb drug trafficking networks in Marseille
On 19 March, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced the launch of a large-scale operation on drug smuggling in Marseille. The move comes as he recalled the death of many due to gang criminality and the city being the host to many events of the Paris Olympics triggered the launch. He visited La Castellane, one of the most affected neighbourhoods due to drug wars. The launched operation to track such drug networks, traffickers and will be destroyed as per Macron’s comments. Marseille being the second largest city has been subject to violence due to increase gang wars. (“France launches major anti-drug crackdown in Marseille,” Deutsche Welle, 19 March 2024)

Court of Paris finds the 28 people guilty of cyberbullying
On 19 March, the BBC reported on imprisonment of 28 people for 18 months under the cyberbullying case. The judges found the suspects guild of harassing a influencer triggered through a campaign by French rapper Booba on “thieving influencers.” The court of Paris stated that the act had “real consequences” to the subject and Booba will also face a separate trial. Defendants of the case were fines EUR 700 and were asked to pay an additional penalty of EUR 54,000 to the influencer. (Ian Casey, “Magali Berdah: Dozens jailed in France's largest cyberbully case,” BBC, 19 March 2024)

France’s Competition Authority fines Google
On 20 March, French authorities announced fining of Google for breach of an agreement in paying media companies. According to the report, it will be fined EUR 250 million for not paying and reproducing the same online. France’s Competition Authority stated that the fine was only for failing the follow the commitment made in June 2022. Google and many other similar platforms have been subject to accusation of making billion from news without splitting the revenues with who circulate it. This has been tried to be addressed by the EU through “neighbouring rights” which grants print media to ask for compensation for the content online. (“French regulator fines Google €250 million,” Le Monde. 20 March 2024)

ROMANIA
NATO to expand its military base in Romania’s Black Sea port
On 19 March, Romanian Defence Ministry announced on NATO’s military expansion in the Black Sea port of Constanta as stronger security guarantee for Romania. This means NATO strengthening its eastern flank in the military base of Constanta which is close to Ukraine’s Black Sea zone. The project is expected to install a new military complex worth EUR 2.5 billion and will be functional fully form 2040. Commander Nicolae Crețu of the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base said: “A new runway, connections between the two existing runways, taxiways for aircraft and anti-aircraft protection systems will be built.” (Ana-Maria Stancu, “NATO expands its Romania Black Sea air base,” Euractiv, 20 March 2024)


19 March 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #785

EM in Brief: Volcano eruption occurs for fourth time in Iceland

Climate activists protest against exploration of fuel deposits in the North Sea; Farmers continue to protest demanding ease of CAP rules in Spain

Photo : Public Security Department of Icelandic Police/REUTERS


By Rosemary Kurian

ICELAND
Volcano eruption occurs for fourth time
On 17 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the volcano eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland, for the fourth time in three months. Iceland’s Meteorological Office noted that the eruption caused the creation of a fissure almost three kilometres long wedged between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell mountains. The eruption was expected by authorities after witnessing signs of accumulating magma, and hundreds of people were evacuated from the Blue Lagoon thermal spa, a key tourist location. No flight disruptions in the airspace were reported. Iceland sits on a volcanic hotspot, located between the Eurasian and North American tectonic plates. The country has 30 active volcanoes, being a popular country for volcano tourism, and therefore is experienced with management of volcanic eruptions. (“Iceland: Volcano erupts for fourth time in 3 months,” Deutsche Welle, 17 March 2024)
 
SLOVAKIA

Demonstrations spark over government’s plan to control brodcasting
On 16 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the protests by thousands of Slovaks against the government of Robert Fico, Slovakia’s Prime Minister, for planning to control the Radio and Television of Slovakia (RTVS), the country’s public broadcaster, which could threaten press freedom in the country. The demonstrations were planned by Progressive Slovakia (PS) and Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), the two liberal oppositions to the government. Martina Simkovicova, the country’s Culture Minister, drafted the plan to disband the RTVS and transform it into Slovak Television and Radio (STaR). A seven-member council that would be nominated by the government and the parliament would select the director of STaR, who could be dismissed any time without an explanation. The plan was criticised by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) which owns the RTVS. Demonstrations took place in Bratislava and Košice, Slovakia’s largest cities. Fico’s earlier plan to change the justice system also sparked fears among the public over a threat to the rule of law. (“Slovakia: Thousands protest public broadcaster revamp plan,” Deutsche Welle, 16 March 2024)
 
SPAIN

Farmers continue to protest demanding ease of CAP rules
On 17 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the demonstration by thousands of Spanish farmers with tractors in Madrid, against the EU’s agricultural policies that they claim are a financial burden. Organised by the Union of Unions, the march took place from the Ministry of Ecological Transition to the Ministry of Agriculture after the EU’s proposal to ease the rules of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which they believe are not enough, their products more expensive that non-EU imports. Luis Cortes, a member of the trade union, warned the government to focus on environmental regulations rather than agricultural limitations, expressing frustration over European bureaucracy. (“Spanish farmers protest in Madrid despite EU concessions,” Deutsche Welle, 17 March 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU signs EUR 7.4 billion multi-sector deal to ease economic and energy dependency
On 17 March, according to Deutsche Welle, the European Commission announced a financial package worth EUR 7.4 billion to Egypt, to aid in stabilising its economy and reduce dependence on Russian gas. It also includes a grant to address the flow of migrants to Europe from the region. The EUR 7.4 billion was given in EUR five billion in macro-financial, EUR 1.8 billion in investments and EUR 600 million in grants from 2024-2027, to support Egypt’s declining economy. The EU-Egypt deal has boosted their relationship into a “strategic partnership” with aims to increase cooperation in energy, trade and security. The Egyptian economy has been hit due to massive infrastructure projects, the conflict in Gaza as well as its implications on tourism and shipping through the Suez Canal, a key income earner for Egypt. The IMF agreed to offer it a USD 8 billion loan package. Further, the risk of economic instability in Egypt has prompted increased migration into Europe. The EU delegation’s visit in Cairo headed by Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, also included Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister, who have been receiving the majority of migrants to Europe. Human Rights Watch, a US-based NGO, stated that the deal “strengthens authoritarian rulers while betraying human rights defenders.” (“EU to provide Egypt €7.4 billion funding package,” Deutsche Welle, 17 March 2024)

EU demands firms to adhere to regulations to prevent environmental damage and forced labour
On 16 March, according to the BBC, many of the EU countries backed a legislation that requires companies to ensure that their supply chains does not cause environmental damage or employ forced labour. The Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) was backed by 17 out of 27 members without any votes against it. The directive aims at requiring European companies to adhere to environmental and human rights regulations and prevent any potential harm. Over several rounds of negotiations, a compromise was reached with only larger businesses with more than 1000 employees and a net turnover of at least EUR 450 million being affected. The original draft was meant to affect firms with more than 500 employees and a minimal revenue of EUR 150 million. Key objections were raised by Germany and Italy with multiple small and medium businesses, who feared that their economies would be hit with the legislation. The draft must be passed by the European Parliament to become law. (Kathryn Armstrong, “EU backs law against forced labour in supply chains,” BBC, 16 March 2024)

Climate activists protest against exploration of fuel deposits in the North Sea
On 16 March, The Guardian reported on the action by climate activists across Europe to block access to the North Sea oil infrastructure in the form of a pan-Europe civil disobedience protest. Activists from Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden have blocked refineries, ports and gas terminals in their respective countries, to show their disapproval of the exploitation of the fuel deposits in the North Sea. Activists in Scotland staged banner drops in areas considered as of “strategic importance.” and actions are expected in Denmark. Activists began their protests after a report found that no giant fossil fuel producing country was planning to stop drilling into their facilities soon to meet the temperature targets set at 1.5 Celsius by the Paris Agreement. The UK, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Denmark failed to align their energy policies with their climate promises, with Norway and the UK farthest away from the promises made in the Paris Agreement, according to the report. (Damien Gayle, “Climate activists across Europe block access to North Sea oil infrastructure,” The Guardian, 16 March 2024)


13 March 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #780

EM in Brief: Report finds shortage in military in aircraft, tanks and ammunition for Germany

Greta Thunberg moved from entrance from protesting in the entrance of the parliament; Trial begins for the 2022 gay bar shooting in Oslo

Photo : Marijan Murat/dpa/picture alliance


By Rosemary Kurian

GERMANY
Report finds shortage in military in aircraft, tanks and ammunition
On 12 March, Deutsche Welle reported that Eva Högl, the Bundestag’s Commissioner for the armed forces, presented a report stating that the Bundeswehr, the German military, “had too little of everything.” Despite having earmarked a special modernisation fund worth EUR 100 billion for the Bundeswehr two years back, Högl noted the need for improvements in infrastructure, equipment and personnel. The military faces shortages of aircrafts, ships, tanks, spare parts, radio devices and other ammunition. Högl however has noted that the Bundestag approved defence contracts amounting to EUR 47.7 billion in 2023, also planning for the use of two-thirds of the special defence fund. According to the report, German soldiers are “aging and shrinking,” suggesting an increase in troop numbers from 181,000 to 203,000 in the next seven years. (“Germany's military is aging and shrinking, says report,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2024)
 
SWEDEN

Greta Thunberg moved from entrance from protesting in the entrance of the parliament
On 12 March, Deutsche Welle reported that Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist was removed from the entrance of the Swedish parliament along with other climate activists for obstructing the entrance to the parliament. The climate campaign reached its second day where activists demonstrated a sit-down protest against the effects of climate change outside of the Parliament. According to Stockholm police, activists had the right to protest outside the parliament but not to block the entrance which led to actions against five to ten individuals. Thunberg became a significant figure in the global fight against climate change among the youth due to her sit-downs outside parliament since 2018. She was earlier removed by the German police during a protest against a coal mine in western Germany. (“Greta Thunberg removed from blocking Swedish parliament,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2024)
 
THE UK

Giant trees thrive better than in California due to higher carbon absorption
On 13 March, the BBC reported that the giant redwoods, world’s largest trees native to the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, are flourishing in the UK, better than in California. The UK has around 500,000 of these trees compared to 80,000 in California, which are, however, shorter than their Californian counterparts. The latter can reach 90 metres in height compared to the former, the tallest being 54.87 metres. They could catch up with their 2000-years life span. Scientists have observed that the redwoods can absorb a considerable amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which could aid in tackling climate change. The trees in the UK, with a 45 metre height, have about 10 to 15 tonnes of carbon stored in them. The trees particularly grow in cool and wet climates, conducive in the UK. But with the effects of climate change causing a dry climate in California, the redwoods are under threat, which could be replicated in the UK too. (Rebecca Morelle and Alison Francis, “Giant redwoods: World’s largest trees 'thriving in UK',” BBC, 13 March 2024)
 
NORWAY

Trial begins for the 2022 gay bar shooting in Oslo
On 13 March, Deutsche Welle reported that Norway began its trial against Zaniar Matapour, a man accused of shooting at a popular gay bar in Oslo, killing two and injuring nine in 2022. Mantapour fired 10 rounds with a machine gun and eight rounds with a handgun, according to Sturla Henriksbo, the prosecutor, in the “London Pub” the night before Oslo’s pride parade, which got cancelled following the incident. Matapour claimed himself to have sworn allegiance to the Islamic State according to prosecutors, in a case that has been claimed by officials as an “act of Islamic terrorism” with Norway raising its threat assessment to the highest level. Matapour refused to speak to investigators in the case that could sentence him to 30 years in prison. He questioned the judge on the trial overlapping with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which the judge perceived as a non-conflict. (“Norway: Oslo terrorism trial for LGBTQ bar shooting begins,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Romanian President joins the race for NATO's next secretary general
On 12 March, Politico reported on the joining of Klaus Iohannis, the Romanian President, against Mark Rutte, the Dutch Prime Minister, in the race to become NATO's next Secretary General. Iohannis announced his candidacy citing the lack of an Eastern European presence in NATO’s decision making, becoming the first potential NATO chief from the former Soviet bloc. The Secretary General is chosen based on consensus from all 32 NATO Allies, and Rutte has failed to convince all 32, with significant opposition from Hungary due to Rutte’s earlier comment on Hungarian democratic backsliding. Romania, Turkey, and the Baltic countries haven’t yet expressed their support for him. The big four in NATO– the US, Britain, France and Germany– have supported Rutte’s candidacy, due to his skills as a consensus-builder, a much required skill provided the NATO sceptic Donald Trump returns to American presidency. Iohannis has claimed to be the harbinger of change in NATO, including mandatory defence spending of two per cent of the GDP, working with partners in the Indo-Pacific, and pitching NATO’s digital transformation and increased investment in technology. (Stuart Lau, “Romania’s president launches bid for NATO top job against Mark Rutte,” Politico, 12 March 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

First aid ship to Gaza sent from Cyprus
On 13 March, the BBC reported that ‘The Open Arms,’ a Spanish ship, with 200 tonnes of essential food supplies for Palestinians in Gaza, has begun from Cyprus. Gaza has no functioning port, which prompted World Central Kitchen, a US charity, to initiate the building of a jetty to receive aid. The success of the Spanish ship will prompt several European and Emirati efforts to get the much needed aid into Gaza, which would otherwise go into a state of famine. While the quickest way to take aid is via road, Israeli restrictions prevent it. Israel has stated that a maritime corridor facilitating aid into Gaza is welcomed. (David Gritten, “Gaza war: First aid ship sets off from Cyprus,” BBC, 13 March 2024)


12 March 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #779

EM in Brief: European Council to begin accession talks soon for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Putin signs two laws on fishery and use of digital financial assets; EU considers setting regulation to include Uber workers as employees

Photo : Valerio Rosati/Zoonar/picture alliance


By Padmashree Anandhan

HUNGARY
Orban says Trump would not “give a penny” to Ukraine
On 11 March, Victor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister following his meeting with Donald Trump, former US President stated that the Trump would not “give a penny” for war in Ukraine. He disclosed his full support to Trump for the 2024 elections. Tagging to Trump’s statement Orban stated that without the US and Europe support, the war will come to an end. He also added that Trump had clear plans on ending the war in Ukraine. The meeting with Trump has gained criticism from the EU leaders once again on Orban. (“Trump will not give a penny to Ukraine - Hungary PM Orban,” The BBC, 11 March 2024)

RUSSIA
South Korean national arrested under suspect of espionage
On 12 March, Russia’s news agency TASS reported on arresting of a South Korean under suspicion of espionage. According to the South Korean media, the suspect had supported North Korean laborers in Russia’s far east. Under Russian law, 20 years would be the minimum jail term for espionage. In contrast, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry claimed on the person being assisted by the consulate since the announcement. It stated on conducting investigation but denied to give further report. (“Russia arrests South Korean over alleged spying,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2024)

Putin signs two laws on fishery and use of digital financial assets
On 11 March, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President signed a law withdrawing the 1956 agreement which allowed the UK sailors to fish in Russia’s sea zone of Barents Sea. In line with UK’s decision on 15 March 2022 to end bilateral trade with Russia, the decision was taken. In 1956, the USSR and the UK signed an agreement as a step to build diplomatic relations and the Barents Sea forms part of Russia’s Exclusive Economic Zone fostered economic cooperation. On the same day, Putin also signed law approving use of digital financial assets and digital utility rights to include into international payments. (“Putin Signs Law Ending 1956 Fishing Treaty With UK in Russia's Barents Sea Zone,” Sputnik, 11 March 2024; “Putin Signs Law Allowing Use of Digital Financial Assets in International Payments,” Sputnik, 11 March 2024)

REGIONAL
EEA warns climate extremities due to rise in temperature twice the global rate
On 11 March, the European Environmental Agency (EEA) warned over “catastrophic” consequences of climate change if no urgent action taken. EEA published it’s first Europe-wide analysis listing 36 threats relating to climate in Europe. Out of this, 21 were marked under immediate action and eight as “particularly urgent.” These include “fires, water shortages and its impact on agricultural production.” Apart from this the coastal areas were warned of experiencing “flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion.” Europe as a fast-warming continent is currently reported to be heating up double the global rate which is a major concern however northern Europe is excluded from the extremity. (“Climate risks could be 'catastrophic' in Europe, EU warns,” Deutsche Welle, 11 March 2024)

European Council to begin accession talks soon for Bosnia and Herzegovina
On 12 March, Ursula Von Der Leyen, European Commission President is expected to recommend the European Council to begin the accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country is one among the six which is held in between towards EU accession stages. Von Der Leyen said: “Bosnia is now fully aligned with our foreign and security policy, which is crucial in these times of geopolitical turmoil.” Although Bosnia applied to join the EU in 2016 the talks are yet to start to progress approval from rest of the EU member states. (“EU to recommend membership talks with Bosnia: von der Leyen,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2024)

EU considers setting regulation to include Uber workers as employees
On 11 March, the EU member states labour and social ministers agreed on regulations to classify worker in Uber and Deliveroo as employees. This means, the Platform Work Directive would mention workers under the “gig-economy” as employees in particular cases. Workers can qualify when they are assessed electronically which mediates payment and working hours. Pierre-Yves Dermagne, Belgian labour minister said: “This is the first-ever piece of EU legislation to regulate algorithmic management in the workplace and to set EU minimum standards to improve working conditions for millions of platform workers across the EU.” On approval of the regulation, algorithms engaging in human resources will be made to be open along with granting workers right to “contest automated decisions.” Although the regulation is yet to be passed in the European Parliament, Uber was reported to be lobbied against the original draft where the Commission would set the threshold to qualify a worker as employee. (Richard Connor, “EU states agree to regulate Deliveroo, Uber workers' rights,” Deutsche Welle, 11 March 2024)


11 March 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #778

Portugal’s Centre-right party claims win in the parliamentary elections

Macron announces legislation approving “aid in dying” under stipulations; Five European countries and India close the EFTA deal after 15 years of talks

Photo : Armando Franca/AP/Financial Times


Europe In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Macron announces legislation approving “aid in dying” under stipulations
On 10 March, in an interview to La Croix and Libération., Emmanuel Macron announced a legislation on assisted dying. This grants eligible patients to have control of a lethal product “alone or with assistance.” Patients who suffer from an incurable disease and life-threatening illness in a short-term to medium term and cases of unrelievable pain can “ask to be helped to die.” This also includes minors and adults suffering from psychiatric conditions such as Alzheimer. Once a medical professional consents for the lethal substance and agrees to administer or with help of a third party (volunteer, doctor, or nurse), can be carried out in care homes, or elderly homes. In this move, Macron avoided mentioning the term assisted suicide or euthanasia to give priority to the patient’s consent. (“Macron announces bill allowing 'aid in dying,' under 'strict conditions,' Le Monde, 10 March 2024)

GERMANY
Environmentalists protest against Tesla’s factory expansion
On 10 March, hundreds of environmental activists protested in Grünheide, against the expansion of Tesla’s factory outside Berlin following an attack on the power supply. The protests emerged due to risk of water contamination as Tesla’s proposal to construct the electric vehicle (EV) factory with an additional freight station, warehouses and kindergarten fell under water protection area. It also endangers forest near the factory as 100 hectares could be cleared. Earlier, the attack hauled its production for a week after an electricity pylon caught fire prompting for an investigation. Germany’s Federal Network Agency called for securing the energy and telecommunication infrastructure. (“Germany: Protest against Tesla plans to expand 'Gigafactory',” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2024)

IRELAND
Irish reject government’s proposal to redefine make-up of family and woman’s role
On 09 March, Irish rejected government’s proposal to amend the definition of “make-up family and a woman’s role within the household” in the constitution.  Leo Varadkar Prime Minister of Ireland and major political parties support the changes but with considerable turnout, the people voted against the referendum. According to the proponents, the first amendment would expand the definition of a family by including the term “durable relationships” with marriage. The second amendment would mean “the state would strive to support” the provisions where other member of the family can help or care for mothers at home. This was refused by most of the people due to two reasons. One, they argued it as scope for unintended changes to taxes and citizenship and two, the word “strive” was not well received as it does not hold the state fully responsible rather shift to private caregiver. (“Ireland: Voters reject amendments redefining family, women,” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2024)

THE UK

Government announce measure against rising anti-Muslim incidents
On 10 March, Government of the UK announced to provide GBP 117 million to boost security at mosques and Muslim sites across the UK over four years. The move comes as the Home Office experiences surge in anti-Muslim hate events since the war in Gaza. James Cleverly, Home Secretary said: “We will not let events in the Middle East be used as an excuse to justify abuse against British Muslims.” One of the organisations called Tell MAMA which monitors hate crimes, recorded more than 2,000 hate incidents in past four months which was an increase of 335 per cent from 2022-2023 period. These included, threats, assaults, vandalism, hate speech and anti-Muslim literature. In February, Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister pledged to give GBP 70 million for next four years to protect Jewish community sites. (“UK: Government announces £117 million security funding for Muslim sites,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023)

TURKEY
Erdogan calls the upcoming May elections to be a decider for the leader of AKP
On 09 March, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President announced the upcoming election on 31 March to elect mayors and councillors would be the final for him. Mentioning Turkey’s law, he said that it would be his last election as it will impact on his “political accession.” Re-elected for second term in 2023 elections Erdogan was the founder and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). He said: “The result that comes out of this election will be a transfer of a legacy to the brothers who will come after me.” (Gian Volpicelli, “Erdoğan says upcoming Turkish local election will be his last,” Politico, 09 March 2024)

INTERNATIONAL
Five European countries and India close the EFTA deal after 15 years of talks
On 10 March, India, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein signed European Free Trade Association (EFTA) an economic deal worth USD 100 billion. Under the deal, import tariffs on industrial products will be removed by India in exchange for an investment of USD 100 billion over 15 years. The deal was signed after 21 rounds of negotiations facilitates a modern, equitable and win-win deal for all signatories. This means Switzerland’s 95.3 per cent custom duties of industrial exports and Norway’s 40 per cent high import taxes will be waived off. The move also forms part of Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister target of reaching a USD one trillion export by 2030. (“India, Europe's EFTA bloc sign $100 billion deal.” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2024)


09 March 2024, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #777

Rail and airline staff stage dual strike for hike in pay in Germany

Photo : picture alliance/dpa | Boris Roessler


Europe In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

BELARUS
Opinion in Deutsche Welle reports decrease in release of prisoners with illness
On 09 March, in an opinion published by Deutsche Welle, reported on the uncertainty for the disabled and people with illness in Belarusian prisons. According to the report, close to 40 people with disabilities or serious illness in Belarus were found to be among political prisoners. Since 2021 five had dies in the prisons while many have grim possibilities to be released. Right activists argue that the death of those prisoners was from “inhuman treatment” and denied “high-quality medical care.” Under the governmental law, authorities take responsibility for the health conditions of those detained but at the judiciary level it was observed to be a setback. Since 2010, there was a 1.3 per cent decrease from 10 per cent in allowing release of such prisoners under health conditions by the Judiciary. At the government, Vasily Savadsky, former head of medical service of the Ministry of Interior says health aspect was often being exploited to enforce statements from the defendants by the investigators. Although, release under medical grounds is possible which includes tuberculosis, cancer or diabetes. (“Belarus: Little mercy for sick or disabled prisoners,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2024)

GERMANY
DLR on alert over impact of space debris on earth’s surface
On 08 March, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany’s latest concerns over increasing space junk and debris from International Space Station (ISS). According to the report, debris including battery pack from the ISS three years before weighing 2.6 tonnes is reported to settle down over North American atmosphere. Found by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the debris is expected to burn when reaching the earth surface with high possibility to merge into ocean. Although the risk is marked “unlikely” for Germany, the German Economic Affairs and Climate Ministry (BMWK) is reported to closely monitor the effect of the debris to implement crisis measures. (“ISS space junk: Germany on alert for debris, risk minimal,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2024)

Rail and airline staff stage dual strike for hike in pay
On 07 March, Germany witnessed dual strike of worker staff from Deutsche Bahn and Lufthansa demanding increase in wages. The strike is expected to impact rail and air traffic till 09 March with only 10-20 per cent to operate on schedule. One of the operator spokesperson said: “The completely unnecessary GDL strike affects the plans of millions of travelers.” Apart from the wages, the staff also demand for reduction in working hours from 38 to 35 with no change in payment. Whereas those from Lufthansa, the Verdi union demanded for 12.5 per cent raise of EUR 500 more per month along with an inflation compensation bonus of EUR 3000. Earlier, the airline company announced doubling of profits and recovery from the Pandemic. (“Germany: Dual rail and air strikes affect 'millions',” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2024)

POLAND
Government in dilemma between raging farmers and ending trade with Ukraine
On 07 March, an opinion in Deutsche Welle explores the pressure on Poland’s government from the farmer protests and how EU can intervene. Poland has witnessed massive protests in Warsaw resulting in block of roads for several hours. Gathered by NSZZ Solidarnosc union linked to the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, has further challenged the latest government led by Donald Tusk. Farmers along with livestock breeders, foresters, beekeepers, transport employees and miner raged against EU’s green deal, reforms against climate neutral 2050 and mainly close of border with Ukraine. In response, Tusk has approached the EU to impose a full ban on grain imports from Russia and Belarus and also to bring back tariffs on Ukraine. To address the issue, the EU is ready to grant concessions on Poland’s demand but Poland stands on thin ice situation as closing of border with Ukraine or tariff imposition would mean end of trade surplus with Ukraine which accounts for EUR seven billion as of 2023. (“Clashes in Poland as farmers' protests get more political,” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2024)

PORTUGAL
Election campaign ends with polls showing PSD on lead
On 08 March, marked the last day of campaigning for Portugal’s legislative elections. The far-right Chega (Enough) party was under spotlight as it could be a major players in domestic affairs with third largest majority in parliament. André Ventura, who heads the party was elected in 2019 in the parliament proved to be a performer in policy shifts in popularising the Chega. The BBC reported on his campaign topics which focused on “chemical castration” for rapists, promises better pay for police officers and vouches reform in education, health and higher pensions. The snap elections being scheduled for 10 March, polls ahead show PSD-dominated Democratic Alliance (AD) to be on narrow lead ahead of Socialist Party (PS) while Chega’s support increased to 16 per cent from seven per cent in 2022 elections. (Alison Roberts, “Portugal elections: André Ventura, ex-football pundit, shakes up vote,” BBC, 08 March 2024

INTERNATIONAL
Biden speech starts steady on Ukraine but lacks assurance
On 08 March, Politico reported on Joe Biden, the US President State of the Union speech and how it shows tough stance on Ukraine. In his speech, he began with Russia’s war in Ukraine, criticised Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President and urged the Congress to approve military aid for Ukraine. Praising the NATO and inclusion of Sweden, showed sternness in addressing Ukraine’s issue. Although this showed relief for Europe, Biden highlighted the World War II and expressed sharing of the European concerns in war in Ukraine. Although Ukraine was a good theme to start the speech, according to the report it was “a clear-cut case of good vs. evil.” (Nahal Toosi, “Biden’s Speech Thrills Ukraine Watchers. Others, Not So Much,” The Politico, 08 March 2024)


08 March 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #776

Sweden overcomes Turkey and Hungary hurdles to join NATO officially

Photo : NATO/The Guardian


Europe In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Macron insists on including abortion rights into EU ‘s Charter
On 08 March, Emmanuel Macron, France’s President following the vote for abortion rights in France vouched for extending the same into EU’s basic law. Indicating how the societal norms are no longer etched in stone, called for guaranteeing of freedom to allow abortion and inclusion in EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights. The statements come as France imprinted the amendment into its 1958 constitution in a special public ceremony. (“Macron says he wants abortion added to EU rights charter,” Le Monde, 08 March 2024)

IRELAND
Double referendum to be held to make amendments to family and care
On 08 March, Government of Ireland started the voting process for a double referendum for making amendments to the constitution on “make-up of a family” and “Women’s life within the home.” All political parties are expected to vote in favour. The two proposals will change the “family amendment and care amendment” to the Article 41 of Ireland’s Constitution created in 1937. First amendment mandates the citizens to widen the definition of family from “those found on marriage” to add “durable relationships.” Whereas the second one proposed for replacement of traditional langue on “mother’s duties” at home with including the care given by other family members. The significance of the vote is to ware away the influence of catholic voters. (“Ireland holds referendums to update Constitution on women, family,” Le Monde, 08 March 2024)

SWEDEN
Receives accession invite from NATO
On 07 March, the White House and Sweden government confirmed the membership into NATO
as the 32nd member. Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s Prime Minister stated the invite received from the NATO for accession on acceptance from NATO member states. Joe Biden, US President said: “Nato stands more united, determined, and dynamic.” Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General added on the benefit of Sweden joining: “Capable armed forces and a first-class defence industry.” Sweden’s membership journey towards NATO breaking from neutrality began under prime ministership of Magdalena Andersson in 2022. 29 NATO member approved Sweden while Turkey and Hungary placed the roadblocks against few conditions. One being Sweden home to the Kurdistan Worker’s party (PKK) and Hungary demand for Swedish fighter jets deal, both overcome by Sweden gained the vote approval to accede into NATO after two years. Meanwhile, NATO in no time laid its agenda in utilising Sweden once the membership procedure was complete. First being the military training exercise part of the Nordic Response involving 20,000 soldiers of Sweden and Finland. (Miranda Bryant, “
Sweden finally joins Nato after nearly two-year wait,” The Guardian, 07 March 2024)

REGIONAL
European Commission warns of future conflict due to water scarcity
On 06 March, Politico reported on the EU warning over risk of water conflict as temperature increase. The European Commission has issued a warning to pace up to tackle climate change. The warning comes as it found water shortages at critical with high risk to key aspects of life from food, drinking water, infrastructure for power and transport, economic activity and human health. According to the draft issued by the Commission: “These risks can manifest in multiple forms, some of which include … increased competition over water resources across sectors and uses, including potential risk of conflicts…” This can be understood from the earlier examples of Spain and France which experienced severe drought and clash over water reservoir. The Commission warns that extreme water conditions such as floods and droughts are only one category of risk while 36 more remain with catastrophic levels for Europe. (Zia Weise, “Brussels warns of water conflict danger in EU,” Politico, 06 March 2024)

Commission President announces maritime corridor to supply aid to Gaza
On 08 March, Ursula Von Der Leyen, European Commission President announced the possibility of starting a maritime corridor to Gaza. The move comes after the US announcement on setting a temporary port. On the same, the UN called for aid as it found quarter of Gaza population to be on the edge of famine. Israel appreciated the maritime corridor initiative and stressed on other countries to join. In a press conference in Cyprus, Von Der Leyen stated that at the situation of “humanitarian catastrophe,” a maritime corridor was pertinent to deliver aid in mass. Joe Biden, the US President commented that aid to Gaza would make “massive difference” for humanitarian worker. He added: “Humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip.” (Tom Spender, “Maritime corridor to Gaza to begin at weekend - Von der Leyen,” BBC, 08 March 2024)


05 March 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #773

EU fines Apple over breach of antitrust laws

Calais Group and France to partner to track down small boat material shipment; EU strikes deal banning use of single-use plastics

Photo : Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP


In Brief 
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Parliament constitutionalises abortion rights of women
On 04 March, France’s parliament approved the bill with three-fifth majority to constitutionalise women’s abortions rights. Through the approval, Article 34 will be amended to include the conditions to put freedom of women under practise for an abortion. Emmanuel Macron, France’s President called it a “universal message” across the globe to defend abortion rights. The decision echoes back to the US Supreme Court decision which reversed women’s constitutional rights to abortion. France will be the first country to establish the right to terminate a pregnancy while many countries across Europe stand divided. First legalised in 1975 in France, the law allowed abortion up to 10th week and later extended to 14th week by 2022. Across Europe the divide can be viewed between the catholic countries, right-wing governments and eastern Europe. In the catholic countries like Spain, Malta, and Hungary doctors, healthcare providers refuse to give the abortion services under religious and moral basis. Whereas in the case of right-wing parties and eastern European countries unless there is threat to life or under situations of rape, incest imposes strict policies and ban on abortion. (“Why France enshrined abortion rights in its constitution,” Deutsche Welle, 04 March 2024)

SWITZERLAND

Jans calls for joint effort to strengthen the EU border management
On 04 March, Beat Jans, Swiss federal councillor and minister of the interior issued a statement to solve the country’s migrations and international crime problem. On his visit to the EU, he highlighted the need for protection in the Schengen external border against migrations. He assured Switzerland to play a vital role in Frontex (Europe’s border management) if human rights were taken into account. In countering international crime, Switzerland can adopt measures from the EU especially in data exchange, however negotiations are expected to kick start. (“Swiss minister seeks EU collaboration on migration and crime,” Swissinfo, 04 March 2024)

THE UK

Calais Group and France to partner to track down small boat material shipment
On 04 March, the UK along with the Calais Group of northern European countries announced a partnership with France to prevent supply of “small boats” into France. Such boats encourage migrants to cross the English Channel and under the deal, the countries customs will share information on those shipping materials for small boat. The group comprise of Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands apart from the UK and France aims to cooperation to counter illegal migration. This partnership will also explore ways to engage with social media companies and people smuggling agencies to track their activity. (“UK announces customs partnership with France to fight illegal Channel crossings,” Le Monde, 05 March 2024)


Department of economy propose to raise student fee to the UK level
On 05 March, the BBC reported on the Northern Ireland official from economic department decision to increase student fees to the UK level. According to the report, raising would generate GBP 98 million but the draft is under consultation. Conor Murphy, Economy Minister contradicts this saying it might lead to reduction of student intake in universities. At present the tuition fee for an undergraduate level stand at GBP 4,710 per year while in the UK it is GBP 9,250. For the country to prevent cuts in other sectors reduction of funding to higher education is considered the way without generating additional income. For the draft to be approved assembly and executive approval would be required before 2026-27 year to notify students. (John Campbell, “Raising Northern Ireland tuition fees could generate £98m,” BBC, 05 March 2024)

REGIONAL

EU fines Apple over breach of antitrust laws
On 04 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the EU fine of EUR 1.8 billion on Apple over breach of antitrust regulations. According to the European Commission, it found Apple to have exercised restrictions on “app developers” not allowing them to notify iOS users on alternative or cheaper music subscriptions. It said: “This is illegal under EU antitrust rules." Apple was also reported to be charging 30 per cent of fee for sales done though the apps in its system and restricting other apps within to give links to external pages. In response, the Apple confirmed to appeal against the decision and criticised saying the move would benefit Spotify which hold 56 per cent share in Europe’s streaming market. (“EU fines Apple $1.8 billion over music streaming competition,” Deutsche Welle, 04 March 2024)

EU strikes deal banning use of single-use plastics
On 04 March, the EU signed a deal banning the use of single-plastic for fresh fruit and vegetables. This means mini hotel and fast-food restaurants will not be barred from using and switch to more sustainable packaging practice. Under the new legislation, the EU aims to bring down the piling plastic which was 188.7 kilograms as of 2021 which is considered the biggest rise in 10 years. The larger effort is to make the packaging market of the EU to be recyclable by 2030 and mandate customers to bring own containers to buy drink or ready-made foods. According to Delara Burkhardt, a German MEP: “I think what we achieved is a good compromise. It's more ambitious than what the Parliament has put on the table, it gives more clarity in some aspects.” A similar ban was attempted by the EU in 2023, where it banned all single-use packaging which imposed ban on beer brewers, winemakers, cosmetic businesses and paper producers but now with focus on single-use plastics few industries will get to ease. (Leonie Cater, “EU to ban single-use plastic in deal on new green packaging rules,” Politico, 04 March 2024) 


04 March 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #772

France's parliament to vote to constitutionalise abortion rights

Ifo finds work from home culture becoming a norm in service industry; Elections to be conducted again in Belgrade

Photo : The New York Times


Europe in Brief 
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Parliament to vote to constitutionalise abortion rights
On 04 March, Politico reported France constitutionalising abortion rights following efforts of Emmanuel Macron, France’s President. According to the report, this is expected to send a message across the Europe and transatlantic on support to reproductive rights at same time on how to gain political points as Europe witness rise of right. This amendment will be included in the constitution if upper and lower house approve with three-fifth in favour. While abortion rights are supported across France without any debate earlier, constitutionalising was opposed given the existing guarantees for women. Under the doubt of the rights coming under question in future the current government has pushed for including in the constitution. (“France moves to make abortion a constitutional right amid rollbacks in US and Europe,” Politico, 04 March 2024)

GERMANY
Ifo finds work from home culture becoming a norm in service industry
On 04 March, Deutsche Welle reported on a study released by the Ifo, a German economic research institute on work from home culture. According to the report, service sector had shifted towards working from home permanently post pandemic. The study found that 24.1 per cent of workers in Germany did their work from home in February, which was quarter of employees in Germany. Jean-Victor Alipour, Ifo expert said: “The proportion has been almost constant for two years.” This was a contrasting scenario in small and medium sized companies as the proportion was less with 20.5 per cent working from home. The highest share came from large companies and mostly among service employees compared to trade and construction industries. (“Germany: Working from home is here to stay, says study,” Deutsche Welle, 04 March 2024)

SERBIA
Elections to be conducted again in Belgrade
On 02 March, Serbia’s officials announced a repeat of Belgrade elections under fraud allegations. The move comes after a meeting with the ruling government Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Although Aleksandar Sapic, Belgrade’s acting Mayor denied the allegations, he called it as lifting “the bar (legitimacy).” In response to the decision, the opposition Serbia Against Violence (SPN) called it as “victory.” The elections held earlier in 2023 were accused of alleged violations by many opposition and civil society groups. This included OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and European leaders who raised concerns over the elections process. (“Serbia to rerun Belgrade election amid controversy,” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2024)

SWITZERLAND
Government approves increased payment for retirees
On 03 March, Switzerland government approved a referendum to increase retirement pension by adding 13th month payment. In the held vote 58 per cent voted in favour while 42 per cent were against. The vote comes under the proposal for “Better living in retirement” which was kept forward by trade unions against the rise in cost of living. Currently the pension amounts to EUR 2,550 per month for individuals but the country tops as the most expensive. Although the vote has been passed the government stands differed as it estimates the scheme to cost CHF four billion which might lead to increase in taxes. It also argued against saying the payment would go to many retirees who might not need it. (“Swiss vote to boost pension payments,” Deutsche Welle, 03 March 2024)

THE UK
Seven-year girl reported dead in attempt to cross English Channel
On 03 March, the BBC reported death of a seven-year girl after an attempt to cross the English Channel in a boat. According to the report, 16 migrants were carried and the boat sank in the coast of Dunkirk. According to a local official, the boat was not capable of carrying many people and following the event those who travelled along were hospitalised. This comes after three migrants died on 29 February in a similar attempt to cross. According to Home Office, more than 2,000 migrants have entered the UK as of 2024. (“English Channel: Girl, 7, dies after boat capsizes near Dunkirk in France,” BBC, 03 March 2024)


16 February 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #758

UK Economy in recession, data shows slowdown in all major sectors

Germany becomes third-largest economy as recession drags Japan down; EU member states demands for an extra decade to reach air pollution targets

Photo : Jordan Pettitt/PA


EM in Brief
By Alka Bala

FRANCE
Birthplace citizenship withdrawn on the French Island of Mayotte
On 15 February, Gérald Darmanin, France’s Interior Minister announced that people on Mayotte, a French Island in the Indian Ocean will no longer enjoy the automatic right to citizenship by birth. The island which has been a county of the French Republic since 1841 has been experiencing mass immigration. Asylum requests in Mayotte reached a record high of 142,500 in 2023. Mayotte’s proximity to the African islands of Comoros has sparked the “small boat” problem, with hundreds of migrants arriving every week to seek asylum in the French Island nation. However, there have been criticisms from the political left as they believe it breaches the “Republican principle of universality,” and consider droit du sol- (right of the soil) birthplace citizenship as an essential French value. People of Mayotte have opposed the influx of migrants by setting up roadblocks by "citizens' committees." They called for measures to stop this immigration. Estelle Youssouffa, a Mayotte Member of the Parliament said: “If not, we will be perpetually the prisoners of our geography.” Darmanin believes that abolishing birthplace citizenship would reduce the lure of migrants. (Hugh Schofield, “French citizenship row engulfs Indian Ocean island of Mayotte,” BBC, 15 February 2024)
 
ITALY 

Danilo Calvani becomes the face of radical farmers’ movement
On 14 February, Politico reported on Danilo Calvani, a 61-year-old farmer who has camped outside the capital along with his union, Betrayed Farmers C.R.A plan to hold protest against the government by occupying Circus Maximus. There has been a shift among the farmers’ unions in the current movements. large farmers’ unions have been sidelined by the smaller ones that use radical methods and messaging and are currently representing the protesting farmers in Italy. Calvani accused Coldiretti of being the “most corrupt agricultural union, that serves only their interests and aligns with multinationals.” Whereas members of Betrayed Farmers C.R.A. have resorted to Coldiretti flags. Calvani also expressed his disapproval of the government conducting dialogue with unions like Coldiretti instead of talking to the farmers. Matteo Salvini, leader of the right-wing Lega (League) party visited the farmers and reiterated League’s commitment to Italian farmers against the politicians of Brussels. (Alessandro Ford, “The furious farmer taking on Italy’s agri giants,” Politico, 14 February 2024)
 
GERMANY

Foreign Minister Baerbock visits Israel to push for a ceasefire
On 14 February, The Times of Israel reported the arrival of Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister in Israel, for her meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, Isaac Herzog Israeli President and Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Her fifth visit to Israel since 07 October comes with the agenda to push for a ceasefire, as Israel plans to continue with its operations in Rafah. Earlier on X, Baerbock wrote about the 1.3 million people in Rafah seeking protection and stated that an Israeli offensive “on Rafah would be a humanitarian catastrophe.” She indicated the need for a pause in fighting and would talk about the hostage release and humanitarian situation in Gaza with the Israeli counterparts. (Lazer Berman, “German FM arrives in Israel, expected to push Israeli officials for a ceasefire,” The Times of Israel,  14 February 2024)
 

Microsoft: EUR 3.3 billion investment in AI and data centre infrastructure 
On 16 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the largest EUR 3.3 billion investment by tech giant Microsoft in Germany highlighting the latter’s commitments to an open economy. The investment would double the existing capacity of Microsoft’s “AI and data centre infrastructure” in Germany and boost its cloud computing applications. Brad Smith, Microsoft Vice Chair mentioned the lack of AI skills in Germany, and that the investment would allow for training of 1.2 million people with new AI capabilities. Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor dubbed this investment as a “commitment to progress, to growth, to modernity,” and hoped it would revive the German economy. (“Germany: Microsoft to invest €3.3 billion in AI capacities,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2024)
 
GREECE

Bill on same-sex marriage and adoption of children gets Parliament approval
On 16 February, according to Deutsche Welle, the Greece parliament voted in favour of the bill on same-sex marriage becoming the first orthodox Christian country to legalise the civil marriage of same-sex couples. The bill was approved with a cross-party majority vote of 176- 124. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister remarked on the bill's approval as “a milestone for human rights.” The bill also guaranteed the adoption rights for same-sex couples. However, the law does not allow for surrogacy parenthood for male couples, for allows it for women who cannot have children due to health issues. The bill received cross-party support from the centre-right New Democracy party, four left-wing parties, including the opposition party Syriza. However, Archbishop Ieronymos, head of the Orthodox Church of Greece, condemned the law as a “new reality that seeks only to corrupt the homeland's social cohesion.” (“Greece legalizes same-sex marriage,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2024)
 
THE UK

Economy in recession, data shows slowdown in all major sectors
On 15 February, the BBC reported the UK economy falling into recession as data from 2023, indicated an economic slump over the last two quarters with a decline of 0.3 per cent between October and December. In the previous quarter between July to September, the economy shrank by 0.1 per cent. Overall growth for the UK economy in 2023 was only 0.1 per cent. According to the Office for National Statistics, major sectors were affected, such as retail, healthcare, education, manufacturing and construction. Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer is exploring means to reduce public spending to allow for tax cuts in the Budget for 06 March. However, Ruth Gregory, Deputy chief economist at Capital Economics remarked that "this recession is as mild as they come." This sets as a drawback to the pledges made by Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister who assured for growth, cutting down small boats and NHS waiting list. (Dearbail Jordan & Faisal Islam, “UK economy fell into recession after people cut spending,” BBC, 15 February 2024, James Fitzgerald, “Rishi Sunak’s five pledges in tatters as UK slides into recession,” Politico,15 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU shelves water resilience plan against droughts and floods
On 15 February, Politico reported on the European Commission plan to present a "climate resistance" proposal on 12 March. This has been delayed as a large part of southern Europe, including Sardinia, Catalonia, and Sicily, is suffering from drought. According to the European Drought Observatory, about 17 per cent of the EU territory has been experiencing drought conditions since late January. On January 24, Virginijus Sinkevičius, the Environment Commissioner, wrote on X, “Gearing up our work for the essential upcoming Water Resilience initiative. It will be of [utmost] importance for the future of Spain as the country is heavily affected by droughts.” Clair Baffert, Senior Water Policy Officer at WWF’s European Office expressed her disappointment at the “irresponsible” decision by the Commission as floods and droughts are already affecting parts of Europe, at the “cost to communities, farmers, our food supply and nature.” (Leonie Cater and Zia Wiese, “EU puts water resilience plan on hold as drought grips Spain, Italy,” Politico, 15 February 2024)
 

EU member states demand for an extra decade to reach air pollution targets
On 15 February, Politico reported on the demand by European Union member states for a delay of ten years in meeting their air pollution targets. European Parliament has been pushing for speeding up of efforts by the nations to reach the 2050 zero pollution target and address the issue of 253,000 premature deaths in 2021 across the bloc. The negotiations on new targets are scheduled to take place on 20 February, and EU countries although agreeing on strict targets also request a 10-year extension to conform with the rules, allowing them for time till 2040, instead of 2030, to implement their strict air quality regulations. Countries believe that the European Parliament’s new targets are “not realistic.” The reason behind European Commission to push for the air pollution target was due to 59 infringement cases against member states for not reaching their air pollution targets, the top being Poland, Italy, Bulgaria, Romania and Portugal. Parliament intends to finalise the legislation on pollution targets before the elections in June and next set of discussion is scheduled for 20 February. (Louise Guillot, “EU countries demand 10 extra years to meet air pollution targets,” Politico, 15 February 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Germany becomes third-largest economy as recession drags Japan down
On 15 February, according to Deutsche Welle, Germany overtook Japan as the world’s third-largest economy as the latter fell into a technical recession. In 2023, Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for USD 4.5 trillion, whereas Japan’s GDP stood at USD 4.2 trillion. The yen had a seven per cent depreciation in 2023 and had an 18 per cent slump compared to the dollar in 2022 and 2023, according to the Bank of Japan. India with its 1.4 billion population comprising of a youth majority and higher growth rates is projected the overtake both nations as they face issues of labour shortages, aging populations and falling birth rates. According to Takuji Aida, chief economist at Credit Agricole, the Japanese economy could shrink further in the fourth quarter due to slowed global growth, weak domestic demand, and the effects of the New Year's earthquake, and the Bank of Japan would downgrade its upcoming GDP forecasts. (“Recession in Japan makes Germany third largest economy,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2024)


15 February 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #757

Portugal approves 26.65 million euros for recovery as Algrave drought eases

Photo : The Portugal News


EM in Brief
By Alka Bala

CZECH REPUBLIC
Government to abstain from the voting on the EU migration and asylum pact
On 08 February, as reported by Radio Prague International, the Czech Republic is not ready to vote on the EU migration and Asylum pact, scheduled for March. The pact aims to build effective controls regarding migrants and the secure and faster return of failed asylum seekers. It also aims to bring in “compulsory solidarity” where all member states would have to take in a certain quota of migrants or financially aid the overburdened countries. Although earlier Prague supported the draft legislation, however in the recent cabinet session Martin Kupka, Minister of Transport, highlighted reasons to not support the pact in its current form. He stated that after the changes made to the draft post “negotiations with the European Parliament, the possibility of preventing illegal migration at EU’s external borders” was limited. He reiterated that the Czech Republic was not obliged to accept migrants even if the EU immigration and asylum pact gets approved by the majority. (“Czechia not ready to support new draft of EU migration and asylum pact,” Radio Prague International, 08 February 2024)

IRELAND

Use of facial recognition technology debate continues due to warning over social harm 
On 13 February, The Irish Times reported concerns about the use of facial recognition technology (FTR) by An Garda Síochána, Ireland’s National Police and Security Service. An Garda Síochána aims to use FTR to improve investigative procedures in crimes such as murder, child sexual abuse and abductions. It believes that facial recognition technology would help in analysing hours of footage at a faster pace than humans. However, academicians raise the “chilling effects” as they believe the use of this technology would have private life implications and social harm. Senator Robbie Gallagher of Fianna Fáil is concerned that the draft Garda Síochána (Recording Devices) (Amendment) Bill is going forward despite the concerns raised by bodies such as the Data Protection Commission, the Irish Council for Civil Liberties (ICCL), and Digital Rights Ireland (DRI). The need for making this legislation airtight was highlighted. Currently, an Oireachtas committee hearing is occurring where experts are providing insights on the use of technology and legal challenges regarding the current draft legislation. (Mark Hilliard, “Academics warn of facial recognition technology’s ‘chilling effects’ and potential social harm,” The Irish Times, 13 February 2024)
 
POLAND

Catholic church opposes government plans to reduce religious classes
On 14 February, Notes from Poland reported the opposition of Poland’s Catholic church against the government's plans to reduce the number of hours of religious classes, and called it an “infringement of human rights.” The government plans were to not include the grade from religion in school certificate and the grade average. Barbara Nowacka, Poland’s education minister argued that two hours of religious classes a very “is excessive” and introduced government plans to reduce it to one hour per week as students also have other subjects. The Committee for Catholic Education of the Polish Bishops’ Conference (KEP) opposed this decision and argued that religious classes are part of pupil’s right to religious freedom and right to education and also included “parents’ rights to teach and raise their children according to their religious convictions.” KEP also expressed the impact of this decision on the loss of livelihood for “thousands of religious teachers.” Religious classes in Poland are optional for pupils, and recently a decline in attendance has been witnessed. In Warsaw, only 29 per cent of high school students opted for these classes in 2022, whereas two cities Wrocław and Częstochowa have expressed to stop funding the subject. (“Catholic church in Poland opposes reducing number of religion classes in schools,” Notes from Poland, 14 February 2024)
 

Citing insufficient solutions Poland opposes the EU migration pact
On 09 February, according to Notes from Poland, Poland expressed opposition to the EU’s migration pact, although it received support from the majority of EU members. The government of Poland cited that solutions provided in the migration and asylum pact were insufficient as it did not adequately address the “situation of countries bordering Belarus and Russia” as they face “strong pressure within artificially generated migration routes.” The government also raised concerns about to prospect of future disputes within EU institutions as the “pact does not strike an appropriate balance between responsibility and solidarity.” Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister has opposed receiving any relocated asylum seekers under the pact. (“Poland opposes EU migration pact but majority of member states approve measures,” Notes from Poland, 09 February 2024)
 
PORTUGAL

Council of Ministers approve 26.65 million euros for recovery as Algrave drought eases
On 14 February, according to The Portugal News, based on data from the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), the districts of Beja and Faro and southern parts of the district of Setúbal remained in the moderate drought class, however, the intensity had come down from 38 per cent to 20 per cent between December and 31 January. Data from IPMA also highlighted that January was the hottest month in the last 58 years, in air temperature and rainfall. The Council of Ministers approved a budget of EUR 26.65 million to respond to the drought situation and adopt measures for increasing water availability and supply. Out of the allotted amount, money would also be aimed at other methods to increase efficiency such as EUR 10 million to increase tourism, EUR 2.9 million for management, and 350 thousand euros for agriculture. (“Algarve drought eases,” The Portugal News, 14 February 2024; “€26.6 million to help ease Algarve drought,”, The Portugal News, 09 February 2024)
 

Agriculture Ministry guarantees additional payment for farmers
On 13 February, according to The Portugal News, Maria do Céu Antunes, Minister of Agriculture guaranteed that farmers would receive 90 per cent support for organic farming and integrated production whereas the remaining 10 per cent would be paid in June. Without approval from the European Union, the Portugal government currently only has the financial availability to make a payment of 25 per cent. Armando Lopes, one of the farmers’ representatives, remarked that some of their demands were met. Farmers had also raised demands for the inclusion of agricultural diesel as a production factor and for VAT exemption, however, the government responded that this fell outside its purview of review. The demonstrations for reinforcement of irrigation and water efficiency plan were currently being stopped but would resume if “the promises are not met.” (“Payments for farmers guaranteed,” The Portugal News, 13 February 2024)
 
ROMANIA

Ruling parties disagree over the electoral calendar
On 14 February, Romania-Insider reported the disagreement between the ruling parties Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Liberal Party (PNL) as they failed to finalise the electoral calendar. Liberals wish to hold local elections during the same time as European elections on 09 June, as an effort to maintain the party’s relevance in the European Parliament whereas Social Democrats want the general elections coinciding with the first round of presidential elections and voice demands for a joint Social Democrat presidential candidate. This friction between the ruling coalition has resulted in pursing of different election strategies, where the best step for Liberals could be to sacrifice the European Elections and run its candidate for the Presidential elections. The decision-making for the electoral calendar has been pushed for three days. (“Political deadlock over electoral calendar in Romania,” Romania-Insider, 14 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Repatriated Albanians use illegal means to return to Britain
On 14 February, BalkanInsight reported the use of illegal means by repatriated Albanians, to materialise their dream of moving to Britain. In 2022, around 12,000 Albanians used small boats to travel across the English Channel and enter Britain, since then the number of illegal migrants has come down. However, the aspirations and efforts of the repatriated Albanians have been sustained over time. The high cost incurred in these travelling attempts has made these youngsters “the victims of debt bondage,” according to Jahir Cahani, a local activist in Northern Albania. Youngsters sell their property and cattle in their hometowns in Albania and take up loans, to make their travel to Britain using relatively less guarded airports such as Vienna, Barcelona and Ireland with the help of smugglers and fake passports. The youngsters who end up reaching Britain join in illegal activities such as labour-intensive cannabis production.  The migration has caused around 176 schools in Albania to close and raises dangerous concerns as students leave their studies unfinished to join organised crime networks. (Bashkim Shala, “Repatriated Albanians Find New Routes Back to Britain,” BalkanInsight, 14 February 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Serbia and UAE sign MoU on development and cooperation of AI
On 14 February, BalkanInsight reported the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Serbia and UAE by Ana Brnabic, Serbian Prime Minister and Mihailo Jovanovic, Serbian Minister of Information and Telecommunications and Faisal Al Bannai, Secretary General of the UAE’s Advanced Technology Research Council at the World Government Summit held in Dubai. The MoU will focus on “closer cooperation between Serbia and the UAE in the field of development and application of AI,” as stated by Brnabic. The language model developed by UAE is equivalent to US-based ChatGPT, and under the MoU, Serbian institutes would be able to use UAE’s model. Earlier, Serbia had signed MoUs with G42 Cloud, UAE- based AI and cloud computing company, and China’s BGI Genomics. (Katarina Baletic, “Serbia, UAE, Sign MoU Closening Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence,” BalkanInsight, 14 February 2024)
 

Danish Armed Forces to participate in the largest NATO exercise
On 12 February, according to Danish Defence, the Danish Armed Forces would participate in Steadfast Defender 24, the largest NATO exercise conducted in decades, in collaboration with 31 allied nations and approximately a total of 90,000 soldiers. The NATO plan will take place in two parts, where in the first part Danish Armed Forces will be part of British-led maritime exercises and Norweigian-led exercises in the Arctic region. Denmark would provide support as the host nation and 1,200 Danish soldiers would take part across the services, such as the Navy, Air Force and Special Operations Command. Steadfast Defender 24 aims to reinforce the NATO alliance and the plans were adopted at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania in 2023. (“​​The Danish Armed Forces to Participate in Major NATO Spring Exercise,” Danish Defence, 12 February 2024)


14 February 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #756

Farmers association organise protest against EU rules in Hungary

Inflation rate maintains at four per cent in the UK; European Parliament approves uniform payment system across the EU

Photo : Hungary Today


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY
German Chancellor and Poland Prime Minister aim for joint defence support to boost Europe’s security
On 12 February, Olaf Scholz German Chancellor criticised Donald Trump former US President for his claim on “withholding security” from NATO alliance for not spending sufficient budget on defence. Scholz said: “Let me clearly say due to recent developments that any relativizing of NATO's collective defense guarantee is irresponsible and dangerous and is only in Russia's interests.” Trump’s statement also triggered shock for Poland, prompting Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister to call for joint defence support with Germany to boost Europe’s security. Tusk said: “There is no reason for the EU to be weaker than Russia.” As per NATO’s spending guideline of meeting two per cent of GDP, many NATO members have not met, whereas Germany is expected to meet the limit by 2024 by spending out of the main budget. (“Scholz says Trump NATO remarks 'irresponsible and dangerous',” Deutsche Welle, 12 February 2024)

HUNGARY

Farmers association organise protest against EU rules
On 12 February, Hungary Today reported on the protests held by Hungarian farmers’ association MAGOSZ and the Hungarian Chamber of Agriculture (NAK) combined with farmer with tractors, harvesters and trucks. This resulted in blocking of passenger and freight traffic. The protestors carried banner and Hungarian flags for five kilometres blaming the European Commission and in support of Hungarian agriculture. István Jakab, president of MAGOSZ on behalf of the farmers called for the application of the EU rules to other European countries that are applied to Hungary especially denoting to Ukraine. (“Hungarian Farmers Protest against the Extension of Unlimited Ukrainian Imports,” Hungary Today, 12 February 2024)

THE UK

Inflation rate maintains at four per cent
On 14 February, Euronews reported on continuing stable rate of UKs inflation till January. According to the report, UK’s inflation rate stayed to four per cent following reduction in prices of furniture, household goods, food and non-alcoholic beverages. Earlier, experts had predicted a slight increase of 0.2 per cent but the inflation maintained due to reduction of prices of certain goods. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell said: “But the best news for all households came from falling food inflation, with prices actually coming down on a month-by-month basis for the first time in more than two years, a factor which helped offset other cost pressures.” (James Thomas, “UK inflation remains steady at 4% as food prices fall, beating expectations,” Euronews, 14 February 2024)

TURKEY

Nine trapped underground after landslide in a gold mine
On 13 February, after a landslide nine workers were trapped in a gold mine in eastern Turkey near Erzincan province. According to Ali Yerlikaya, Turkey’s Interior Minister there was no further report on the state of the workers but confirmed the ongoing rescue operation. He said: “We installed our [rescue] vehicles, our generators, and our night lighting equipment.” The difficulty in rescue operation arose due to the presence of mass amount of cyanide-laced soil in the mine. On the same the mining company Anagold Mining issued a statement: “…most important priority in this difficult process … is the health and safety of our employees and contractors.” (“Turkey: Several trapped after landslide hits gold mine,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2024)

REGIONAL

European Parliament approves uniform payment system across the EU
On 14 February, the European Parliament approved a draft of EU regulations on payment services. This means cheaper transactions with safety and uniform across the EU. The regulation aims to inform user on the cash machine fees and ensure social media companies handle impersonation scams. Marek Belka, a MEP in the European Parliament said that the objective was to make the system more “user friendly.” Belka added: “If the Facebooks of the world make money on posting ads ... they should take responsibility if those ad accounts are fraudulent.” The plan was approved with 39 votes in favour and one against, it also allows EUR 100 cashback as an offer without registering as payment provider. (Jack Schickler, “EU Policy. MEPs approve measures to tackle impersonation scams,” Euronews, 14 February 2024)

Spain and Ireland urge for review of the EU-Israel agreement  
On 14 February, Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Prime Minister and Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Prime Minister jointly called the European Commission to review the EU-Israel agreement on emergency basis following the worsening humanitarian crisis. In a joint letter they raised concerns over Israel’s military campaign and violation of human rights and internation law. They highlighted their findings on Israel actions to be in violation of the Genocide Convention. In Europe, Spain, Ireland, and Belgium considered the most critical against Israel. In the joint statement they said: “We ask that the Commission undertake an urgent review of whether Israel is complying with its obligations, including under the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which makes respect for human rights and democratic principles an essential element of the relationship.” (Jorge Liboreiro, “Spain and Ireland call for 'urgent review' of EU-Israel agreement over war in Gaza,” Euronews, 14 February 2024)


13 February 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #755

Stubb wins Presidential elections

Dutch Appeals Court halts export of F-35 fighter jets to Israel; Eight arrested after killing of two police officers in Spain

Photo : EPA-Yonhap


In Brief
By Alka Bala and Padmashree Anandhan

FINLAND

Stubb wins Presidential elections
On 11 February, according to Deutsche Welle, centre-right presidential candidate Alexander Stubb won the run-off elections by a margin of four per cent. Alexander Stubb, Finland’s former Prime Minister garnered 52.3 per cent of the votes compared to 47.9 per cent of votes by his rival Pekka Haavisto from Green Party. Stubb had earlier voiced strong support for Ukraine and had urged the European Union to do more in the situation. His approach towards defence contrasted with his rival’s, where he believed in the permanent deployment of troops in Finland using the nation as a transit for nuclear weapons. Whereas he does not support the permanent storage of nuclear weapons in the country. Stubb has called for an anti-Moscow approach until the war in Ukraine is stopped. (“Finland: Alexander Stubb claims win in presidential runoff,” Deutsche Welle, 11 February 2024)
 
NETHERLANDS’

Appeals Court halts export of F-35 fighter jets to Israel
On 12 February, according to Deutsche Welle, the Appeals Court in The Hague called for a halt in the export of parts of F-35 fighter jets to Israel. Israel is using them in “serious violations of international humanitarian law," the ruling by Judge Bas Boele stated. According to the ruling, the government has to comply with it within seven days after judgement. The case was petitioned by three human rights organisations, Oxfam's Dutch affiliate, PAX and The Rights Forum, and argued that delivery of these weapon parts would make Netherlands complicit in the war crimes committed by Israel. The lawyers of the Dutch government raised the argument that the weapons in Dutch warehouses are US-owned and made, and questioned the jurisdiction of authorities to intervene as it is a US-run operation. (“Dutch court bans export of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel,” Deutsche Welle, 11 February 2024)

SPAIN

Eight arrested after killing of two police officers in Barbate
On 12 February, the BBC reported on the arrest of eight including drug dealers and money launderers following the killing of two officers Miguel Angel Gomez Gonzalez and David Perez Carracedo. This comes after the officers were injured in a boat chase in southern port of Barbate under suspicion of drug trafficking. According to the report in El Pais, Miguel Moline, Barbate’s Mayor had earlier requested for assistance after “narco-boats” were spotted. The incident sparked shock across the local community insisting on giving more powers to police and in a statement, the Spanish Guardia Civil officers' association (AUGC) said: “Long demanded a "real plan" to provide officers with better means and resources to fight drug traffickers.” They also called for resignation of Spain’s Interior Minister. (Laura Gozzi, “Spain: Eight arrests after two officers die in 'narco-boat' chase,” BBC, 12 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Work piles on European Commission as it investigates 50 deals
On 07 February, Politico reported on the increase in work by European Union regulators as they investigate deals based on the new rules aimed at non-EU companies that are supplied with State support, especially from China. The rules entered into force in October and require EU officials to investigate whether the state-funded businesses increase unfair competition for European companies. Currently, the European Commission has 50 deals under review for unfair advantages for foreign subsidies. The Commission had only expected to review 30 in a year; however, it has cleared 12 in four months. Lawyers also raised concerns about the Commission not being adequately equipped to handle the increased number of filings. (Varg Folkman, “EU team combating Chinese subsidies struggles with a flood of deals,” Politico,11 February 2024)
  

EU scraps promoting lab-grown meat from climate proposal
On 09 February, Politico reported on the European Commission scrapping its initiative from its climate agenda for promoting “lab-grown and plant-based meats” following the request from Janusz Wojciechowski, Agriculture Commissioner. Earlier, the EU released its climate goal for 2040 on 06 February including the concessions to farming sector. The previous draft included conditions on producing healthier diets through right incentives, but in the final version the “diversified protein intake” was removed. Lab-grown meats, plant-based alternatives and novel protein were considered as key products to reduce environmental impact. Especially Beef is viewed the largest source of greenhouse gases, although full ban on lab-grown produce has not initiated yet, few governments like Italy have proposed laws. (“EU dumped lab meats from climate plans on farm chief’s demand,” Politico, 09 February)


09 February 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #432

Commission launches infringement procedure on Hungary

European Parliament calls for a global moratorium after Norway’s clearance for deep-sea mining; EU unable to agree on a consent-based definition of rape

Photo : Hungary Today


In Brief
By Alka Bala

FRANCE
Sociologist and political-scientist Alfred Grosser dies at 99
On 08 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the death of Alfred Grosser, a Jewish-origin intellectual and German-French writer in Paris. Grosser’s contribution towards Franco-German relations is significant in restoring bilateral ties between the two nations post-Second World War. Completing his studies at Sciences Po College in Paris, he has authored more than 30 books and publications explaining the mindset of the French and the Germans, while providing internal and external perspectives. He was also a recipient of awards from both countries for his work, and had even received the highest honour of France-  Grand Cross of France's Grand Officer of the Legion of Honor (Légion d'Honneur). His unconventional opinions on Israel provoking a war with Iran in 2007  had garnered him criticism as an antisemite, however, he highlighted that people should be able to criticise Israel without being tagged as an antisemite. (Sarah Judith Hofmann, “German-French sociologist Alfred Grosser dies at 99,” Deutsche Welle, 08 February 2024)
 

Farmers' protest and EU response, a recede for green goals
On 07 February, Politico reported French farmers’ protest against EU environmental standards and import of grains from Ukraine, comprising only 1.5 per cent of the population had forced Emmanuel Macron, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President to reverse the green farming rules. It also restricted the massive food imports from Ukraine and scraped the plans to eliminate pesticide use. The upcoming European elections have forced Paris and Brussels to double back on environmental commitments, garnering the strongest political consequences from France, even as the rest of Europe faces farmer’s protests such as in Germany, Poland, Italy and Belgium. Macron’s disapproval of the EU’s Free Trade Agreement with the Latin American Mercosur bloc has sparked criticism from other EU nations. Jordi Cañas, European Parliament’s delegation for Mercosur views this move as an attempt to “divert the attention of farmers.” Whereas Macron believes that if Brussels does not take actions to simply rule in support of the farmers, it would lead to a win for the far-right in European elections. (Giorgio Leali and Victor Goury-Laffont, “The French farmer on a tractor is back — running the EU,” Politico, 07 February 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Boris Nadezhdin, a pro-peace candidate against Putin banned from election
On 08 February, Deutsche Welle reported the ban on anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin by Russia’s Central Election Commission from standing in the upcoming presidential elections. Nadezhdin was the opposition’s best hope against Vladimir Putin, the current Russian President who would now run against three namesake opposition candidates, backed by the Kremlin. The ban on Nadezhdin was justified by citing the incorrect signatures obtained from the supporters, where out of a random sample of 60,000 signatures, 9,147 signatures were declared invalid. However, Nadezhdin plans to challenge this decision in the Supreme Court, believing “sooner or later, I will be the President of the Russian Federation.” Nadezhdin during his election rally had campaigned against Russia’s war in Ukraine. (“Boris Nadezhdin: Russia bans antiwar candidate from election,” Deutsche Welle, 08 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL 

EU unable to agree on a consent-based definition of rape
On 07 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the inability of the European Union to agree to a standard consent-based legal definition for rape. Frances Fitzgerald an Irish Member of the European Parliament who was in charge of formulating common guidelines for violence against women in the EU, remarked her displeasure on “disturbing insights into the attitudes to rape” by certain member states and over the inability to get the definition into the directive. Different EU member states have different regulations on rape and its definition; 14 member states follow an “only yes means yes” approach, which specifies clear consent for sexual activity. Whereas Germany and Austria follow the “no means no” principle which means the victims would have to prove their verbal refusal, while the other 11 member nations, including France and East Europe countries, consider resistance to violence or threatening situations as elements of rape. However, the EU’s proposal for a uniform law on rape and violence has been met with opposition from Germany, France and Hungary as they believe the “only yes means yes” principle lacks a “legal basis for provision in European primary law.” (Lucia Schulten, “EU fails to agree on legal definition of rape,” Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2024)
 

Commission launches infringement procedure on Hungary
On 08 February, About Hungary reported on the European Commission’s formal letter to Hungary indicating the launch of an infringement procedure over Hungary’s Sovereignty Protection Act. The Act, which has been in force since December 2023, has powers to investigate activities carried out by foreign bodies, states or individuals that might violate Hungary’s sovereignty or influence the outcome of elections and voter’s will. The law restricts candidates and parties from using foreign funds and allows for punishment under criminal law for doing so. EC found the law as volatile of the “democratic values of the Union; the principle of democracy and the electoral rights of EU citizens” and other rights regarding privacy and protection of personal data and freedom of expression and association. Hungary can take two months to reply to the formal letter. Zoltán Kovács, Hungary’s State Secretary for International Communications and Relations remarked that Brussels and the “dollar left” are attacking the new law as it limits foreign influence and that “the main supporter of the dollar left was George Soros” in the 2022 campaign. He reiterated that according to the law, “accepting campaign funds from abroad is a criminal offense.” (“Zoltán Kovács: The sovereignty protection law is being attacked because its aim is to prevent foreign influence,” About Hungary, 7 February 2024 and “EC to launch infringement procedure over Hungary's Sovereignty Protection Act,” About Hungary, 08 February 2024)

European Parliament calls for a global moratorium after Norway’s clearance for deep-sea mining
On 07 February, the Environmental Justice Foundation reported on the European Parliament’s response to the call for a global moratorium on the industry as a response to Norway’s decision to allow deep-sea mining in the Arctic, earlier in January. Anne-Sophie Roux, Deep Sea Mining Europe Lead, remarked that currently there is a lack of scientific knowledge and “Any mining activity would therefore contradict Norway’s commitment to the precautionary approach, sustainable management, and international climate and nature obligations.” The resolution by the Parliament also raised concerns about the impact of Norway’s deep-sea mining on the EU fisheries, food security marine biodiversity and other impacts on its neighbours. Reports claim that deep-sea mining will provide financial benefits only to a limited few. (“European Parliament responds to Norway’s decision to open the Arctic to deep-sea mining by calling for a global moratorium on the industry,” Environmental Justice Foundation, 07 February 2024 )
 
INTERNATIONAL

Historical tales of caution highlight Carlson as the latest in the trend to support tyrants
On 08 February, Politico reported on Tucker Carlson and his support for Russia as he set to interview Vladimir Putin, the Russian President in Moscow. His support for Putin and Russia was earlier made evident when he had argued for Washington’s support to Russia in the Ukraine war and had labelled Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President as a Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He is also in tune with Putin’s call for traditional values, against LGBTQ+ rights. Politico draws similar parallels in the past regarding Walter Duranty, bureau chief of the New York Times in Moscow from 1922 to 1936 where he interviewed Joseph Stalin and falsely reported on the millions of deaths in a deadly Ukrainian famine. He won a Pulitzer Prize for his coverage of the Soviet Union however, the New York Times had discredited it. Insights of other supporters of Nazi Germany and Adolf Hitler were William Joyce and Unity Mitford who amplified the Nazi propaganda. (Jamie Dettmer, “Tucker Carlson joins long line of ‘useful idiot’ journalists helping tyrants,” Politico, 08 February 2024)


08 February 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #751

Yandex, ‘Russia’s Google’ pulls out of the country at a loss

Sweden drops probe over Nord Strem explosions, cites lack of jurisdiction; Germany and Mongolia upgrades relations to a strategic partnership

Photo : The Moscow Times


In Brief
By Alka Bala

FRANCE

Macron addresses a ceremony for French victims of October attacks
On 07 February, the BBC reported on the ceremony held in remembrance of the French victims of Hamas attacks in Israel. Emmanuel Macron, France’s President paid tribute to 42 French who were killed, six injured and three were believed to be taken hostage by Hamas. Macron called the 07 October attacks as “the largest antisemitic attack of our century,” and drew parallels between the 2015-2018 jihadist attacks in Paris, Nice and Strasbourg and the former. The presence of deputies of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) at the ceremony drew criticism from the victims as the former has not labelled Hamas as a “terrorist” group and instead refers to it as “an armed offensive of Palestinian forces.” France has the largest Jewish community in Europe with almost 500,000 people. (Laura Gozzi, “Macron leads ceremony for French victims of Hamas attacks,” BBC, 07 February 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Yandex, ‘Russia’s Google’ pulls out of the country at a loss
On 06 February, the BBC reported Yandex, selling its operations in Russia for RUB 475 billion, to Russia. The handover of the Dutch-based parent company took place in a USD 5.2 billion deal, which was far less than its estimated value of USD 30 billion in 2021. Yandex, often known as ‘Russia’s Google’ is now a fully owned Russian entity, and was termed as “an asset to the entire Russian society,” by Anton Gorelkin, deputy head of the Russian parliament's committee on information policy. Arkady Volozh, co-founder of Yandex had Publicly spoken out against Russia’s Ukraine invasion, however had to face sanctions from the EU as Yandex faced allegations of “promoting state media and narratives, and removing of critical content against Kremlin.” Earlier in 2022, Yandex had sold some of its online resources to state-controlled media VK, to comply with government demands. (Mariko Oi, “Yandex: Owner of 'Russia's Google' pulls out of home country,” BBC, 06 February 2024)
 
SWEDEN

Government drops probe over Nord Strem explosions, cites lack of jurisdiction
On 07 February, according to Deutsche Welle, Sweden dropped its investigation against the explosions on Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. The unexplained explosions took place in the Baltic Sea in 2022 on the gas pipelines that transport natural gas from Russia to Germany. Mats Ljungqvist, Sweden’s Public Prosecutor’s investigation reported that since Swedish interests and its citizens were not targeted hence Sweden lacks the jurisdiction to undertake the investigation. Sweden would be handing over its evidence to Denmark and Germany as they are still examining the blasts. Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary for Russia President Vladimir Putin remarked on the dropping of the investigation as a “remarkable decision.” (“Sweden drops Nord Stream explosions investigation,” Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

French right-wing joins Italian and Polish conservative groups in EU Parliament
On 07 February, Politico reported on Marion Maréchal, leader of a right-wing fringe party, who announced that Nicholas Bay, its member of the EU Parliament will now join the Euroskeptics, joining forces with Italy’s Brothers of Italy and Polish Nationalist Law and Justice. Maréchal remarked that joining the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) groups would allow them to “reduce the centrist influence in the European Parliament.” The move of one MEP also may seem not highly significant, but it is indicative of the larger shift towards the right wing within the EU parliament as the June elections approach. ECR is currently composed of far-right parties from Spain’s Vox and Finlands, The Finns and also of moderate conservatives, Flemish nationalists NVA, and the Czech Civic Democratic party. (Eddy Wax, “France’s right-wing star joins forces with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni in EU Parliament,” Politico, 07 February 2024)
 

Michel highlights increased investments in economy and defence at EIB Forum
On 07 February, Charles Michel, President of the European Council congratulated Nadia Calvino, the newly appointed Head of the European Investment Bank (EIB) at the EIB Group Forum in Luxembourg. In his keynote address, Michel emphasised the importance of improving the European economic base through investment, innovation and technology and focus on security and defence. He highlighted the significance of the EU single market. The importance of data sharing between nations was also considered as vital as it will lead to the provision of better care. Most importantly, Michel highlighted the joint orders and cooperation in military arms production. While mentioning the eight per cent increase in defence budgets of the European allies, he called for an investment of EUR 600 billion in the next ten years. Ultimately he also outlined the necessity for greater job creation and making the economies innovative and competitive. (“Keynote speech by President Charles Michel at the European Investment Bank Group Forum 2024,” Council of the European Union, 07 February 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL 

900 civil servants from the US, UK and EU dissent over Israel Policy
On 07 February 2024, Deutsche Welle reported on the anonymous letter with 900 signatories consisting of civil servants from the US, UK and the EU expressing their discontent with the actions taken by their respective national governments. EU and the US have not backed the idea of a ceasefire, even as deaths in Gaza crossed 27,500. The US continues to provide financial military support to Israel, whereas the EU has called for “humanitarian doors and pauses,” in Gaza. These civil servants highlighted the “silencing culture” in the government, and have asked the governments to rethink their Israel policy that supports the nation “without real conditions and accountability.” Israeli officials have rejected the accusations carried out in the letter and referred to such an act as an attempt to ruin Israel’s good relations with other countries. German Foreign Ministry mentioned that it “takes note” of the letter, whereas the European Commission said that it was “looking into” the statement. ( Rosie Birchard and Ella Joyner, “Gaza war exposes dissent on EU Israel policy,” Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2024)
 

Germany and Mongolia upgrades relations to a strategic partnership
On 07 February, according to a German press release, Mongolia and the Federal Republic of Germany upgraded their bilateral ties and cooperation to the level of a Strategic Partnership after the Mongolian visit by Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German President from 07 to 08 February. Based on the partnership, Mongolia has promised to support Germany’s permanent seat at the UN Security Council and engage in collaborations in the UN peacekeeping operations. Commitments to the expansion of trade, economic collaborations, and greater investments as part of Mongolia’s Vision 2050 were made, whereas cooperation in education, health, science, culture, sports and gender-inclusive healthcare were highlighted. A joint agreement on cooperation in archaeology and mining would ensure collaboration in natural resources, industry and technology. The countries plan to combat the climate crisis through the deployment of green hydrogen technology and renewable energy. Germany also supported the national Billion Trees movement initiated by Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, Mongolian President. (“Joint Declaration regarding the Strategic Partnership between Mongolia and the Federal Republic of Germany,” Federal Foreign Office, 07 February 2024)
 

Framing of Swiss-Chinese relations during geopolitical uncertainties 
On 06 February, Swissinfor.ch reported on the framing of Swiss-Chinese relations as the Swiss Foreign Ministry formulates a new strategy for China relations for 2025. China is Switzerland’s third-largest trading partner and Swiss authorities had been cautious to not jeopardise its economic ties, even as the EU, US, UK and Canada imposed sanctions on China in 2021, for its human rights violations against the Uighurs. Swiss welcomed the Chinese Premier Li Qiang in January 2024, resulting in the updating of the existing Free Trade Agreement between them. However, this does not cover the export of all Swiss goods, and exporters will still have to pay around USD 200 as Chinese customs duty. Switzerland hopes to restart its dialogue with China on human rights and ensure more transparency this time. However Swiss policy on China would remain pragmatic and neutral even as other countries and the EU are focusing on “de-risking,” and reducing its dependencies on China. (Geraldine Wong Sak Hoi, “How Swiss-Chinese relations are weathering geopolitical storms,” Swissinfor.ch, 06 February 2024)


07 February 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #750

Farmers protest over the EU regulations in Spain

Commission proposes two targets to set the climate goals right; Divide among the political parties over same-sex marriage and adoption in Greece

Photo : BBC


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

GREECE

Divide among the political parties over same-sex marriage and adoption
On 07 February, Politico reported on Kyriakos Mitsotakis Greece Prime Minister’s attempt in the parliament to pass a bill legalising same sex marriage. The vote being scheduled for 15 February, has not gained much support among his party members, making Mitsotakis rely on leftist opposition group to pass the bill. This has led to the metropolitan bishops to organise protests and warned: “..those who vote for it cannot remain members of the church.” The bill recognises the “right of same-sex couples to adopt,” According to the report, his push behind the bill is viewed to attract the international to repair the earlier reputation damages. In terms of support, both the right and left-wing Syriza party is observed to be divided over gay marriage and adoptions, whereas the stance of centre-left remains unclear. As per the survey by Pew Research Center, many in Greece along with Poland, and Hungary remains to be against same-sex marriage. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Greece’s Mitsotakis makes progressive pivot with same-sex marriage bill,” Politico, 07 February 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Nikolay says no withdrawal from the Arctic Council despite low activity
On 06 February, Nikolay Korchunov, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Ambassador issued statement on the Russia’s decision to not withdraw from the Arctic Council. He highlighted on Russia keeping its “options for foreign policy” open even in case of the council activities not meeting its interest. He said that the council was operation at “its lowest capacity,” and Norway’s failure to restart since it lacks support from other members. The Arctic Council established in 1996 is a high-level intergovernmental forum to promote cooperation and protection. Western countries have suspended their activities since Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. (“Russia Not Ruling Out Withdrawal From Arctic Council if Necessary,” Sputnik, 06 January 2024)
 
SPAIN

Farmers protest over the EU regulations
On 06 February, adding to the farmer protests across the EU, farmer in Spain staged protests demanding for flexibility over the controls imposed by the EU on products of non-EU countries. They blocked the road using tractors, horns and showing placards causing disruption and intend to stage a larger protest in late February. The protest was observed in north-eastern Catalonia, southern Andalusia, and Extremadura in the west. Similar to the farmers in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy, they criticised the regulations of EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), high fuel and energy cost to be challenging. (Guy Hedgecoe, “Spanish farmers join wave of protests,” BBC, 06 January 2024)
 
THE UK

Sinn Fein First Minister considered a historic point for the Northern Ireland
On 06 February, in an editorial, Le Monde reported on the latest history point in the Northern Ireland following the formation of new government with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister. It is historic since the Sinn Fein party, a political section of the Irish Republican Army in the civil war between 1968-1998 and took the wheels since 1921 creation post partition of Ireland. It is known for its support for a united Ireland, with O’Neill leading the government alongside Emma Little-Pengelly from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) sets a new stage to implement the Good Friday Peace Agreement (1998). This deal ended the three decades of fighting between the Catholic republicans and protestant unionists. The agreement instructs for a referendum for reunification, a shift is not in the radar. Although the success is perceived as way forward to pushback the moment in the North. (“A historic turning point for Northern Ireland,” Le Monde, 06 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Commission proposes two targets to set the climate goals right
On 06 February, the European Commission proposed two recommendations to meet the EU climate goals. One, it vouched for a 90 per cent cut in the greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. This target is set to help the EU on track to achieve the net zero emission by 2050. In 2022, the emission was reduced by 33 per cent and the commission stressed on more focus for citizens to enjoy the benefit from climate transition. Two, it proposed a document with plans to “capture and store” millions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by 2050. The proposal comes a juncture where the EU witness mass farmer protests and a tight climate target to meet. Key reasons behind the proposal are to target climate neutrality and increased CO2 reductions. (“European Commission pushes to slash emissions by 2040,” Deutsche Welle, 06 February 2024)
 

Ursula relaxes the chemical pesticide use
On 06 February, Ursula Von Der Leyen, European Commission President proposed withdrawal of a plan to cut the pesticide use in agriculture as a negotiation against the farmer protests. She indicated that the earlier announced green transition as “symbol of polarization,” and the initial target to half down the chemical pesticide use in the EU had paused in the discussions in the European Parliament. On the farmers, she added: “Many of them feel pushed into a corner…our farmers deserve to be listened to,” but she also insisted on turning the European agriculture into a sustainable form of production. The pesticide problem is only one out of the grievances stated the farmers on protest across Europe where the larger environmental regulation remains debated. (“EU's von der Leyen backtracks on cutting pesticide use,” Le Monde, 06 February 2024)
 

Hungary's vote to Sweden's accession prolongs
On 06 February, in the session held by Hungary’s opposition to vote for Sweden’s accession only 51 MPs participated out of 199 prolonging the decision. While one of the MPs from the left liberal opposition party criticised Victor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister for the delay, the conservative Jobbik party and far-right Mi Hazánk party found the vote against its interest. Following this David Pressman who was the attendees in the parliament said: “Sweden's accession to NATO is an issue that directly affects the national security of the United States and also the security of the entire alliance.” (Niklas Zimmermann, “Continue waiting for a yes from Budapest,” Frankfurt Allgemeine, 06 February 2024)


06 February 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #749

EU approves AI rules after two years of negotiations

Meloni’s visit to Tokyo aims at strengthening bilateral ties; Sunak visits the newly appointed First Minister O’Neill, who calls for increased allocations

Photo : RMIT University


In Brief
By Alka Bala

FRANCE 
Attal survives his first no-confidence motion, calls to “break partisan lines”
On 05 February, Euractiv reported on Gabriel Attal, France’s Prime Minister surviving his first no-confidence motion filed by all left-wing parties, Greens, the Communists, the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) and the Socialists (PS). The motion only received 124 votes out of the required 289, as the far-right and conservatives did not support the motion. The conservative party, Les Républicains (LR) abstained from voting as it found itself divided between both sides. Manuel Bompard, an LFI lawmaker accused Attal of supporting unfair competition among farmers and food imports affecting domestic food sovereignty. Attal accused the left of “blocking” legislative work and expressed his commitment to “break partisan lines” work with all. (Théo Bourgery-Gonse, “French PM Attal survives first vote of no confidence,” Euractiv, 05 February 2024)
 
GERMANY

Over 150,000 people protest against AfD’s plans for “remigration”
On 03 February, according to Deutsche Welle, around 150,000 people attended a demonstration against the far-right ideologies marking their dissent against the plans for the “remigration” of immigrants, referring to their mass deportations. The protests emerged after the report by Corrective, an investigative network on the far-right meetings attended by political parties Alternative for Democracy (AfD) and Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and neo-Nazis aiming at “remigration.” The protestors and 1300 associations gathered in front of the German Parliament, the Reichstag building. Politicians from the Social Democrats Party extended support to the protests, where Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor stated on X that these protests are ​​a “strong signal for democracy and our constitution.” (“Germany: Tens of thousands in Berlin protest far right,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2024)
 
SPAIN

Unemployment increases by 2.2 per cent, indicates low productivity
On 02 February, Euronews reported on Spain’s struggle with employment as it increased by 2.2 per cent in January, raising the number of unemployed people to 2.77 million. The recent rise in unemployment was attributed to majorly service sector and agriculture sector. Spain’s struggle with unemployment is due to its tight labour market regulations evident in the housing and healthcare sectors, creating a dual labour market system. In Spain, semi-skilled and unskilled people, and immigrants are mostly employed temporarily in seasonal sectors, thus leading to seasonal unemployment during the off-peak times. Spain’s economy is also witnessing low productivity as it grapples with talent and capital issues. However, Spain’s government has assured that it will continue with its cost-of-living measures as Spain’s headline inflation rose to 3.4 per cent in January. (Indrabati Lahiri, “Why is Spain struggling with increasing unemployment?,” Euronews, 02 February 2024)
 
THE UK

Sunak visits the newly appointed First Minister O’Neill, who calls for increased allocations
On 05 February, according to Deutsche Welle, Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister visited the newly appointed administration of Northern Ireland in Belfast. In the meeting, First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly pressed on demands for British to boost its budget offered for the region. Sunak remarked the meeting with the executives was “very constructive” and that the GBP 3.3 billion offered as an incentive was “significant and generous." (“Northern Ireland presses visiting Sunak on budget,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU approves AI rules after two years of negotiations
On 02 February, Deutsche Welle reported the EU’s approval of rules governing artificial intelligence (AI) safety and use. EU’s draft legislation on AI rules was brought out in 2021, however, it received the final go-ahead from the EU’s 27 countries on 02 February. Theirry Breton, EU Commissioner for Internal Market remarked the Artificial Intelligence Act as “a historical first.” The AI act will govern rules on the use of AI in industries ranging from banking, and the military, to medicine and travel. Countries like Germany and France who opposed the legislation in December, changed their stance after being lobbied by tech companies. The European Parliament would vote on these rules in March or April. Although AI will help boost production and ease workload, its ability to produce deep fakes and spread disinformation raises concerns regarding its use. (“EU states approve landmark AI rules,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2024)
 

Russian hacker Akira suspected of being behind the cyber-attack on Icelandic University
On 04 February, according to Iceland Review, net safety specialists and the staff at Reykjavík University (HR) continued to restore the University system and recover files after a ransomware attack. The attack is believed to have been conducted by Akira, a Russian hacker group which usually employs ransomware to steal data and demand payments. Although the university stated that attackers only received basic information on the student body, it has recommended that students and staff be aware of “phishing and use two-factor authentication wherever available.” Classes are expected to resume from 05 February. (Andie Sophia Fontaine, “Russian Hackers Believed to be Behind Cyber Attack on Icelandic University,” Iceland Review, 04 February 2024)

Italy overtakes Germany in economic growth
On 02 February, Politico, based on official statistics reported Italy increased economic growth by 0.5 per cent whereas Germany's growth reduced by 0.2 per cent. The growth plan for the fiscal year indicates a 0.6 per cent growth, whereas Germany’s forecasts reflect a 0.4 per cent. Other positive indicators on Italy’s economy show a 15-year low for unemployment at 7.2 percent compared to the earlier 13 per cent, and the low risk of premium on Italy’s debt. Accompanied by Germany’s dependence on Russia’s cheap energy, the German economy is bearing the brunt of geopolitics due to its deep ties with China and the effects of the Chinese slowdown are reflected in Germany’s exports to China. According to the European Commission’s forecasts, Italy’s fiscal deficit will remain at four per cent above its GDP, whereas the German deficit is expected below 0.4 per cent of GDP, however, German tax hikes and subsidy withdrawals might hinder economic growth. The new expensive carbon taxes would also take longer to show positive results, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. (Ben Munster, “Do not adjust your set: Italy is growing faster than Germany,” Politico, 02 February 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Meloni’s visit to Tokyo aims at strengthening bilateral ties
On 04 February, Nova News reported on Giorgia Meloni, the Italy’s Prime Minister’s visit to Japan from 04 February to 06 February, focusing on strengthening their bilateral relations and smooth transition of the G7 Presidency, as Japan passes the helm to Italy. The visit will allow the countries to deal with issues of focus in Japanese and Italian Presidencies of G7, which includes the development of AI technology and its governing rules, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and greater economic collaboration. The bilateral meeting also aims to discuss political, economic, commercial and cultural cooperation, whereas also discuss the development of the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), a multilateral initiative between Italy, Japan and the UK aimed at developing sixth-generation stealth fighter planes. PM Meloni is set to meet Japanese business leaders, to boost industrial collaborations with a special focus on the microelectronics sector. (“Meloni flies to Japan: focus on bilateral partnership and G7,” Nova News, 04 February 2024)


05 February 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #748

Nationalist leader Michelle O’Neill appointed as the First Minister in the Northern Ireland

EU and Swiss aid Zimbabwe in building climate-smart agriculture; US-UK strikes on Houthis “not an escalation” says Defence Secretary Shapps

Photo : Peter Morrison/AP Photo/picture alliance


In Brief
By Alka Bala

RUSSIA

Russian cosmonaut sets world record for space deployment
On 04 February, Deutsche Welle reported on Oleg Kononenko, a Russian Cosmonaut breaking the world record for space deployment as he completed 878 days in the International Space Station, as announced by Roskosmos, Russia’s space agency. Kononenko expressed his pride in Russia holding the record for “total duration of human stay in space.” Russia and the US cooperate with each other on ISS international projects, despite the continuing Russia-Ukraine war. Kononenko is expected to complete 1000 days in space on 05 June. (“Russian cosmonaut breaks record on space deployment,” Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2024)
 
SWITZERLAND

Swiss soldiers to train in Austria in 2025
On 03 February, Thomas Süssli, Swiss Army Chief announced the upcoming schedule of Swiss soldiers to receive training on urban warfare in Austria by 2025. Swiss army would be training on foreign soil after two decades, previously it had trained in Lower Austria in the mid-1990s. The military training would involve a battalion size of 1000 soldiers, and Süssli highlighted a corresponding call to troops. Süssil also stated on army’s investment of CHF13 billion in the reconstruction of Swiss defence abilities and underscored the possible construction of a training facility in a mountain valley. (“Swiss soldiers to train on foreign soil for first time in 20 years,” Swissinfo.ch, 03 February 2024)
 

Wave of farmers’ protests reaches Switzerland
On 03 February, Swissinfo.ch reported protests by around 30 Swiss farmers who drove into Geneva with their tractors, demanding remuneration for their work, whereas 30 to 40 farmers protested in the Basel regions. Led by Uniterre in Geneva, a French-speaking Swiss farmers’ union raised demands for transparency regarding profits. Farmers’ criticised the supermarkets for the low prices that they paid them. The protests grouped by more than 200 people, raised their call for protest via Instagram. (“Swiss farmers protest supermarket ‘rip-off’,” Swissinfo.ch, 03 February 2024)
  

Switzerland to achieve “closer institutionalised cooperation” with NATO
On 02 February, Swissinfo.ch reported in an opinion, on the Swiss announcement of working closely with NATO given the “deterioration in the security situation.” The government statement highlighted greater defence and security cooperation with NATO and the EU to strengthen the Swiss capabilities. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted that the Swiss neutrality policy needs restructuring. Although Swiss wants closer ties with NATO, it draws the line at membership, as joining NATO officially would cost the country its neutrality. Considering membership as a disadvantage in this regard, Lea Schaad, a researcher at ETH Zurich underscored the importance of having a neutral state said: “where meetings can be held. Geneva wouldn’t be Geneva were Switzerland in NATO.” ( Thomas Stephens, “Switzerland and NATO: just flirting or the start of a wild marriage?,” Swissinfo.ch, 02 February 2024)
 
THE UK

Nationalist leader Michelle O’Neill appointed as the First Minister in the Northern Ireland
On 03 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the appointment of Michelle O’Neill as the First Minister becoming the first nationalist leader. She will share power with Emma Little-Pengelly, the deputy First Minister, of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Despite O'Neill being the first minister-designate since May 2022, the DUP’s boycott of the assembly delayed the appointment and its concerns over the checks and trading rules for Northern Ireland introduced post-Brexit. DUP’s deal with the UK government agreed in the previous week on eased customs checks and other legal changes had assured the unionists. (“Northern Ireland elects first-ever nationalist leader,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2024)
 
TURKEY

Security arrests seven people on suspicions of information sharing with Mossad
On 03 February, the BBC reported the seven arrests by a joint raid by police and MIT, Turkey’s intelligence agency on suspicion of sharing information with Mossad, Israeli intelligence. In January, 34 arrests were made on similar suspicions of “military or political espionage” according to Yilmaz Tunc, Turkey’s Justice Minister. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s President has warned of “serious consequences” to Israel over its target of Hamas members on Turkish soil. Turkey is a strong Palestine supporter and has termed Netanyahu’s actions undertaken in Gaza as “genocide.” (Robert Greenall, “Turkey Israel: 'Seven arrested for passing information to Mossad,” BBC, 03 February 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

US-UK strikes on Houthis “not an escalation” says Defence Secretary Shapps
On 04 February, the BBC reported on the US and UK strikes with partners Australia, Bahrain, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands and New Zealand against Houthi military targets in Yemen. According to the Pentagon, the strikes attacked Houthis’ weapons storage facilities, missile systems, and launchers. The attacks were followed by a statement by David Cameron, the UK’s Foreign Secretary on the “repeated warnings” given to the group and highlighted that “Houthi attacks must stop." Grant Shapps UK’s Defence Secretary justified the attacks as attempts to “preserve the freedom of navigation” and not to escalate the conflict and casualties. Houthis have warned of a “response and punishment” for the strikes. (“Houthi Red Sea attacks 'must stop,' UK says,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2024 and Alex Smith, “Grant Shapps says UK and US strikes on Yemen Houthis 'not an escalation',” BBC, 04 February 2024)

EU and Swiss aid Zimbabwe in building climate-smart agriculture
On 03 February, Swissinfo.ch reported on efforts by the EU and Switzerland’s investment of EUR 200 million to help Zimbabwe adopt sustainable practices and make it climate resilient. To deal with poor agricultural output due to the lack of rainfall and climate adversities, the Team Europe Initiative on Greener and Climate-Smart Agriculture supports farmers through animal husbandry. Supporting the country’s livestock sector, the focus is on rearing indigenous cross-bred goats. Out of the total EUR 207 million, Switzerland’s contribution amounts to EUR 34 million. Apart from their 20 support programmes, focused on agriculture, energy, nature conservation and livelihood, training is also provided to the locals to negotiate prices, market and increase production. However, recipients of the programme have indicated a greater need for slaughterhouses and better transportation. The Zimbabwe government’s support for cultivation of Maize, sorghum and pulses has been followed with instructions for no-till farming as it conserves soil nutrients. (Daisy Jeremani, “Switzerland helps bring about climate-resilient agriculture in Zimbabwe,” Swissinfo.ch, 03 February 2024)


02 February 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #746

Farmers unions to suspend the roadblocks in France

Catalonia to face water restrictions due to drought emergency; The EU passes Ukraine aid overcoming Orban’s resistance

Photo : SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP


In Brief
By Alka Bala

FRANCE

Farmers unions to suspend the roadblocks
On 01 February, according to Deutsche Welle, Arnuad Gaillit of Young Farmers (JA) one of the biggest farmers unions called an end to the roadblocks as the government announced financial assistance and measures to address their problems. Additionally, he also asked the farmers to “move to a new form of mobilisation.” Gabriel Attal, French Prime minister promised cash payments, ease of rules and protections against cheaper foreign goods leading to a diffusing of tensions after two weeks of protests. However, protests continued at Brussels, as grievances at the EU level, such as rules that force farmers to leave part of their land as fallow and its increased import of Ukrainian agricultural products since its invasion in 2022. (“France: Farmers unions call for end to roadblock,” Deutsche Welle, 01 February 2024)
 
GERMANY

Olaf urges for joint opposition against AfD
On 31 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Olaf Scholz German Chancellor’s statements in Bundestag general debate, where he urged for a joint opposition against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Scholz addressed the Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition and stated that “we should stand together as democrats,” while also voicing his support of the protests against AfD’s discussions on “remigration.” Merz joined in denouncing AfD where he stated that AfD would cause the final downfall for Germany. Rise of support for the far-right parties become evident as latest polls indicated them as second in position at 23 per cent. (“Germany: Scholz calls for joint opposition against far-right,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2024)
 
NORWAY

Authorities give warnings over powerful storms since 1992 
On 31 January, ABC News reported on Norwegian meteorologists warning over the storm “Ingunn” which is expected to hit Central Norway. As per the authorities this storm might be the most powerful one since 1992, with gusts that could go up to 126 to 180 kilometres per hour. There have been reports of precautionary measures taken as ferry lines connecting Norwegian Islands temporarily stop their services. Closing of schools, tunnels and bridges indicate the seriousness of red hazard warnings. As of 31 January morning, no flights were cancelled. (“Norway prepares for biggest storm in 30 years,” ABC News, 31 January 2024)
 
SPAIN

Catalonia to face water restrictions due to drought emergency
On 01 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the announcement of a drought emergency in Catalonia as reservoirs in Mediterranean region reported a drop in reserves, 16 per cent below of capacity. Pere Aragones, head of the regional government termed this as “worst drought in the last century.” Owing to the emergency rules, residents will reduce five per cent of their domestic water consumption from 210 litres to 200 litres per day, whereas for farmers the rules require to reduce 80 per cent of their water usage. Officials are considering the option of brining water to Catalonia by ships. (“Spain: Catalonia declares drought emergency for Barcelona,” Deutsche Welle, 01 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Russia- Belarus plan to implement nine scientific union state programs
On 01 February, Belta reported Russia and Belarus’ plans to implement nine scientific and technical Union State programs in 2024. Aleksei Kubrin, Deputy Secretary of the Belarus-Russia Union State stated that their set goals have been met on each stage and these programmes and revised as part of regular monitoring. He also mentioned a 38 per cent increase in funding, with the amount exceeding RUB six billion, compared to RUB five billion of the last year. In 2024, plans are also in place to implement six programs of last year concerning with national security, whereas three high tech programs will be implemented this year, for the first time. (“Belarus, Russia to implement nine sci-tech Union State programs in 2024,” BelTA, 01 February 2024)
 

Eurozone inflation drops marginally by 0.1 per cent reports Eurostat Office
On 01 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the announcement of Eurostat Statistics Office regarding the slight drop-in inflation rates in Eurozone. The rates fell in January, by 0.1 per cent compared to December, from 2.9 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Although the expectations were at a drop of 2.7 per cent, nevertheless European Central Bank remains satisfied with the slight progress and its positive of reaching its target of bringing inflation down to two per cent soon. Price of food and semi-luxury goods increased by 5.6 per cent however, still less from the rise of 6.1 per cent seen in December. Additionally, drop in energy prices have been evident but slower. (“Eurozone: inflation sinks slightly to 2.8%,” Deutsche Welle, 01 February 2024)
 

The EU passes Ukraine aid overcoming Orban’s resistance
On 02 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the unanimous approval for the EUR 50 billion aid package for Ukraine after meeting with resistance from Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister. After an hour-long meeting, the 27 EU leaders came to an agreement to pass a fund consisting of both grants and loans from the EU budget. Orban has consistently blocked EU decisions and expressed his friendly relations with Russia, leading to delayed EU policies, exasperating the EU. Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister, expressed his anger with the “Orban fatigue” across the EU. The decision to pass the aid package was previously stalled by Hungary, prompting a second dedicated summit. A point of contention among EU members is the annual “debate” over the review of the aid package, which officials say is “toothless.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President embraced EU’s decision and stated that it “proves strong EU unity.” (Ella Joyner, “EU overcomes 'Orban fatigue,' passes €50 billion Ukraine aid,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2024)


01 February 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #745

Farmer protests in France expand to Rungis market resulting in arrest

Strike across 11 major airports demanding increase in hourly wages in Germany; Welsh government proposes new law to conserve wildlife

Photo : EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE

Farmer protests expand to Rungis market resulting in arrest
On 31 January, following Gabriel Attal, France’s Prime Minister repeated assurance to grant subsidy and tax cuts the farmer protests continued in Paris. Despite government warning to the protestors to not block major sites such as Rungis supermarket, farmers gathered outside resulting arrest of 91. The aim of the farmers was to stop the food deliveries to the supermarket against demand for better pay and lesser environmental regulation. According to one of the police chiefs, Laurent Nunez: “Cannot tolerate disturbances to public order.” (“French farmer protests: Dozens arrested at Rungis food market in Paris,” BBC, 31 January 2024)
 

Nestlé under investigation over water treatment practises
On 31 January, French authorities reported on opening an investigation against the Swiss food company Nestlé under suspicion of fraudulent practises of treating water. According to the report, the investigation comes after a government probe reported in Le Monde said: “…one in three mineral water brands in France undergoes purification treatment supposed to be used only on tap water.” Following a complaint from France's ARS health regulator, the investigation was launched to find out if the natural mineral water label was misleading or not. According to Nestlé Waters, it had passed some waters such as Perrier and Vittel for food safety purpose but had “lost track” on complying with the regulations. As per the French law under the EU directive, it bans “disinfection of water” for which has to be naturally high quality. (“French prosecutors to investigate Nestlé over mineral water treatments,” Le Monde, 31 January 2024)
 
GERMANY

Destatis reports on increase in consumer prices
On 31 January, Germany’s federal statistics agency Destatis released a report on the state of inflation in Germany for January 2024. According to the report, the consumer prices had increased by 2.9 per cent which was lesser from 3.7 per cent in December. It is considered the lowest since June 2021, whereas the energy cost was 2.8 per cent less in January compared to 2023. Overall, the inflation across Europe has restarted towards a downward trend which might not be sufficient for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower borrowing cost in short period. Timo Wollmershäuser, ifo economic research director said: “Inflation is therefore likely to fall only slowly in the coming months.” (“German inflation drops to slowest pace since mid-2021,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2024)
 

Strike across 11 major airports demanding increase in hourly wages
On 01 February, Germany’s airport association ADV reported on cancellation and delay of 1000 flights affecting more than 200,000 passengers due to one-day strike across 11 airports. The strike began on 31 January at the Bonn airport with a passenger control staff not reporting for the night shift. Following this security staff stopped working at the Frankfurt, Hamburg, Bremen, Berlin, Leipzig, Düsseldorf, Cologne, Hanover, Stuttgart, Erfurt and Dresden airports after the trade union called “industrial action.” According to the report, the strike is expected cause major disruptions and flight cancellation with the main security checkpoints to remain closed. The trade union Verdi called for strike over failed negotiations with the Association of Aviation Security Companies (BDLS). They have demanded for increase in hourly wages of EUR 2.80, whereas the BDLS proposed for a four per cent rise which was not close to the demanded rate. (“Germany: Local public transit workers to strike on Friday,” Deutsche Welle, 29 January 2024)
 
SWEDEN

Dangerous object found and destroyed outside embassy in Israel
On 31 January, Swedish police officers reported on finding a “dangerous object” outside Israel embassy in Stockholm. According to the report, the object was considered as an “attempted attack” and was destroyed. The details of the object remains undisclosed but once found was alerted and assessed by the national bomb squad who decided to destroy. Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s Prime Minister called the situation as “very serious” and confirmed on the investigation by Sweden’s Security Service. Following the incident, surveillance was furthered in the embassy. According to the reports from Swedish tabloids Expressen and Aftonbladet, the object was found to be hand grenade and Sweden’s deputy prime minister said: “Violent extremism must be stopped.” (James FitzGerald, “Swedish police destroy object outside Israeli embassy in Stockholm,” BBC, 31 January 2024)
 
THE UK

Welsh government proposes new law to conserve wildlife
On 31 January, the BBC reported on the Welsh government proposal for a new law to control the loss of wildlife and conserve nature. This includes forming of an independent watchdog to monitor organisations and hold them accountable for environmental issues such as sewage spills and air pollution. On enforcement, the public bodies in Wales will be subject to disclose nature recovery action plan. Opposition parties have voiced out stating the plan was long overdue and urged for a “crack on.” This comes after recent continued criticism against the Welsh government over the gap in environmental protection post-Brexit. Earlier, people had the option to raise concerns on the government or public bodies if found to not abide the green laws to the European Commission but it has turned around after the UK’s exit from the EU. The latest proposal would serve as new environmental principle and is expected to have eight commissioners and 12 additional staff to support the governance body. (Steffan Messenger, “Nature laws to protect wildlife in Wales,” BBC, 31 January 2024)


31 January 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #744

French National Assembly approves to include abortion rights in the constitution

Bill to grant amnesty to Catalans fails in the lower house in Spain; DUP sign deal with the UK ending the political deadlock

Photo : Thomas Samson/AFP


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE

National Assembly approves to include abortion rights in the constitution
On 30 January, France’s National Assembly voted in favour of including abortion rights into the constitution. The move comes following Emmanuel Macron, France’s President promise in 2023 to constitutionalise the abortion bill. In the lower house, 493 voted in favour while 30 voted against. For an amendment into the French constitution, either both chambers of the parliament approve through a referendum or through three-fifth of majority by a joint session, the later, being the preferred option of Macron, the next step of Senate approval is scheduled for 28 February. At the parliament not many major parties stand against the bill but centre-right members seem to oppose as they consider it not necessary to constitutionalise as access to abortion in France is not threatened. (“French lawmakers vote to enshrine abortion in constitution,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2024
 
RUSSIA

Putin’s contender submits bit to take part in the election
On 31 January, Boris Nadezhdin, a potential candidate to Russia’s presidential election submitted close to 100,000 signatures from supporters to register for the election. Following this the Central Election Commission will authenticate the signature and decide his candidacy. Nadezhdin is considered the only anti-war candidate and he said: “People understand that their lives and the safety of their families is threatened by what (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is doing.” On submitting the signatures, he stated on calling for protests if rejected by the commission. (“Putin challenger submits bid to run in Russian election,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2024)
 
SPAIN

Bill to grant amnesty to Catalans fails in the lower house
On 30 January, the controversial bill to grant amnesty to the Catalan separatists was rejected in the lower house of the parliament. The bill was pushed by Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s Prime Minister in exchange of the support received from the Catalan political group to form the coalition government in 2023. Although the law trigger domestic protests and opposition from the Popular Party headed by Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the bill was important for Sanchez to maintain the government. The bill suffered a setback with no support from the Junts party which comprises Catalans. Junts withdrew its support to the bill asking points on terrorism to be removed. This is because, some of the Catalans who were part of the 2017 secession bid have been charged under terrorism-related crimes. (“Spain: Amnesty bill for Catalan separatists rejected,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2024)
 
THE UK

DUP sign deal with the UK ending the political deadlock
On 30 January, the leaders of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) signed a deal with the UK government to revive the power-sharing government in the Northern Ireland. The move comes after two years of “power vacuum” where the nationalist part Sinn Fein won with majority and DUP disagreed to form government due to clash over post-Brexit trade arrangements. To address this the UK and the EU reached a deal to ease the border checks and to bifurcate the goods moving through the Northern Ireland, the UK and the EU. Despite the deal, the DUP continued to boycott and on pressure, the UK approved GBP three billion for public services and made “legislative assurances” to put back DUP. The details of the deal still undisclosed, DUP has agreed to form the government with Sinn Fein party. (“Northern Ireland eyes end to government shutdown,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2024)


30 January 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #743

DUP members ‘take a decision’ on restoring power-sharing in the Northern Ireland

Post-Brexit requirements on food importers likely to cause supply disruptions; Meloni proposes energy investment plan in the Rome Summit

Photo : BBC/Reuters


In Brief
By Alka Bala

ITALY
Inquiry highlights data privacy violations by ChatGPT
On 29 January, the BBC reported on the inquiry by Italy’s Data Protection Authority (DPA), which found breaches of data protection rules. The chatbot by OpenAI collects personal data from its users to train its algorithms. DPA’s “fact-finding activity” found breaches of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation. Italian spokesperson demanded the need for “implementing an age verification system” and an “information campaign to inform users on their right to opt-out from the provision of their personal data.” OpenAI had earlier reported continuing its talks with the Italian regulator and has 30 days to prepare its defence. (Imran Rahman-Jones, “ChatGPT: Italy says OpenAI's chatbot breaches data protection rules,” BBC, 29 January 2024)
 
RUSSIA

Putin joins three other registered candidates for upcoming presidential elections
On 29 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the Central Election Commission announcement of the registration of Russian President Vladimir Putin for presidential elections to be held from March 15-17. Putin joins the three registered candidates, Leonid Slutsky, leader of the nationalist LDPR party, Vladislav Davankov, deputy speaker of the State Duma, and Nikolai Kharitonov, Duma deputy from the Communist party. Boris Nadezhdin, another potential candidate has until 31 January to collect 105,000 signatures supporting his campaign. In his fifth presidential election, a victory for Putin would make him the longest-serving ruler in Russia since the 18th century. (“Russia: Putin registered as presidential candidate,” Deutsche Welle, 29 January 2024)
 
THE UK

Rwanda bill faces criticism in House of Lords
On 30 January, the BBC reported the criticism faced by Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister’s flagship Rwanda bill during the first stage of debate in the House of Lords. The attempt to kill the bill by Liberal Democrats failed after a vote that allowed the bill to move to the next stage. Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby remarked the bill’s damage to “national unity” and to asylum seekers. Lords also criticised the shoddy nature of the bill, how it “punishes” asylum seekers and not smuggling gangs. The government’s declaration of Rwanda as a safe country was met with opposition and was seen as an attempt to overturn the facts. Division within the Conservative Party on the bill is evident, as 60 Tory MPs backed the bill without any amendments whereas dozens suggested their willingness to abstain or oppose the bill entirely. Voting on the bill in the House of Lords is expected to take place by next month. (Sam Francis, “Rwanda Bill criticised by peers at first stage in House of Lords,” BBC, 30 January 2024)
 

DUP members ‘take a decision’ on restoring power-sharing
On 30 January, BBC reported on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) deciding on the deal for restoring power sharing. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of DUP, provided a detailed update to other executive members in a meeting held in Lisburn on the deal to restore power-sharing government at Stormfront. DUP has been in dialogue with the UK government for changes in arrangements agreed in the UK-EU Windsor Framework deal. Details of the deal are yet to be released by the party. Still, aspects of the deal discussed would include an east-west political body to discuss interests between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, a business organisation similar to InterTrade Ireland focusing on trade, and new legal guarantees of access for Northern Ireland traders dealing with Great Britain. (Enda McClafferty, “DUP officers 'have taken a decision' on the deal to restore power sharing,” BBC, 30 January 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Post-Brexit requirements on food importers likely to cause supply disruptions
On 30 January, the BBC reported on the new guidelines on food and plant product imports into the UK post its exit from the EU’s single market. The new food checks require consignments of fresh food and plant imports from the EU to contain a veterinary certificate, leading to increased red tape. The consignments are required to adhere to the guidelines from 31 January, however actual food checks at the border would take place only after three months. Checks are expected to bring in food inflation, raising the overall level of prices by 0.2 per cent over three years. Concerns are raised regarding the limited availability of vets, increased expenses and the potential loss of perishable goods due to the delay, causing a pause or disruption in the continuous supply of goods. Labour Party proposes the need for a Veterinary Agreement with the EU, catering to the raised concerns. (Faisal Islam, “New Brexit food checks will test Britain’s supply chains,” BBC, 30 January 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Amazon’s iRobot deal falls through; The EU slams it anti-competitive
On 29 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Amazon’s decision to discontinue its proposed acquisition of iRobot, an automatic Roomba vacuum cleaner manufacturer for USD 1.7 billion. This decision comes through as the European Union believes the acquisition would be anticompetitive and would hinder the sales of its competitors in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Amazon views this decision of the European Commission as imposition of “undue and disproportionate regulatory hurdles.” The termination of the deal resulted in a fall in the shares of iRobot to more than 14 per cent in trading. (“Amazon abandons iRobot buyout after EU objections,” Deutsche Welle, 29 January 2024)
 

Meloni proposes energy investment plan in the Rome Summit
On 29 January, Giorgia Meloni Italian Prime Minister sought to diversify its energy supplies and aims to be the energy hub in the southern Mediterranean. According to her Africa Plan, she plans energy investments, where Italy would collect energy from Africa via pipelines and distribute it throughout Europe. Meloni’s proposal seeks a non-predatory-patronising approach towards Africa, treating them as partners. She also highlighted diverting 70 per cent of the EUR four billion climate fund in support of green transition in developing countries to fund this plan. (Hannah Roberts, “As Meloni embraces Africa, Europe holds its breath,” Politico, 29 January 2024)
 

Red Sea crisis disrupts shipping of perishables from Europe
On January 26, Politico reported the disruption caused in shipments of perishables from Europe, especially southern Europe, due to the re-routing of ships around Cape of Good Hope, given the crisis in the strait of Bab el-Mandeb. The re-routing comes with the cost of a delay of three weeks, a five-fold increase in container prices and risks of possible decay of fruits and vegetables en route. Countries such as Italy, Cyprus and Greece find it difficult to reach their goods into Asian markets incurring losses of billions of euros. Such concerns have resulted in exports being dumped on the Europe market, where Europe is used as a transit route or a a destination for these goods. Although French manufacturer Danone negated “any significant short-term impact,” it’s evident that the EU is facing uncertainty in its global supply chains. (Alessandro Ford, “Spoilage alert: Red Sea crisis hits Europe’s fresh food trade,” Politico, 26 January 2024)


29 January 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #742

Alexander and Pekka head to runoff election after the first round

Summit in Rome commences with the Africa Union; Government plan to pass amnesty bill triggers protests in Spain

Photo : Roni Rekomaa/Bloomberg


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

THE CZECH REPUBLIC

Parliament approves stricter rule amending gun law
On 26 January, the lower house of the parliament approved amendment to the gun laws which tightens the rule over owing the weapon for more than a month. The move follows after the mass shooting at the Charles University which led to the death of 14 people. The suspect who killed was a licenced gun user with eight legally owned weapons, this became the symbol of the attack as there was question over the purchases of the weapons nor the suspect had criminal record. The amendment is yet to pass through senate and needs signature of president and will come into force not until 2026. It mandates an online register of guns and its owners and demands gun shops to disclose report if any purchase seemed suspicious. Further police officers will also have power to seize the weapon under precaution. (Rob Cameron, “Czech Republic MPs vote to tighten gun laws,” BBC, 27 January 2024)
 
FINLAND

Alexander and Pekka head to runoff election after the first round
On 28 January, in the held first round of presidential elections in Finland, Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister emerged as the winner with 27.1 per cent votes. Whereas the runner up position was secured by Pekka Haavisto, former Foreign Minister with 25.8 per cent votes. As per the polls, 74.9 per cent was the voter turnout with major parties vouching to take a strong stance against Russia. Stubb said: “You know what, we made it to the final, but the competition will only begin now.” On the same day, Haavisto said: “This is a splendid result from the first round and a very big gap to those behind us.” (“Finland: Ex-PM Stubb wins first round of presidential vote,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2024)
 
FRANCE

Farmers' continue to protest in Paris despite pledges from Attal
On 28 January, Gerald Darmanin, France’s Interior Minister ordered deployment of massive police to prevent the protests by farmers' affecting the market. Farmer union from the Lot-et Garon area initially announced to cutdown Rungis International Market that supplies fresh produce across Paris and attempt to block the traffic. On 29 January, the government and the farmers' are scheduled to meet to discuss on the agricultural policy and Emmanuel Macron, France’s President pledged to keep farmers' from causing any disruptions. The key concerns of the farmers' remain to be the fuel tax subsidies, environmental regulation, and impact of cheap imports due to EU competition practices. To address this, Gabriel Attal, France’s Prime Minister vowed to remove the fuel tax and “simplify” paperwork, but despite such promises farmers' continue to stage protest across France. (“France: farmers and police set to face off in Paris,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2024)
 
ITALY

Summit in Rome commences with the Africa Union
On 28 January, Italy-Africa summit began in Rome under the Mattei Plan. The aim of the summit is to present African countries vision for the development of Africa. 25 African leaders along with representatives from the EU took part to discuss on strategic partnership, causes of irregular migration, counter smuggling gangs. It is also aimed at making Italy as energy hub to facilitate supplies from Africa and help Europe. In a press conference, Georgia Meloni, Italy’s Prime Minister said: “Everything that happens in Africa concerns us, from migration to security and supply chains. For us, the proper development of the African continent is fundamental.” She also highlighted Italy’s approach towards Tunisia in addressing the migrant and refugees entry and indications in reduction in the numbers. On the same the European Commission issued a statement calling the Mattei Plan of strategic partnership to be fitting well with its “joint vision of 2030 between the EU and Africa Union.” The Mattei Plan discussion will also include talks over agriculture, and environment where Italy and Africa can work together. (“Italy summit to present vision for African development – PM,” Ansa English, 28 January 2024; EU gives blessing to Mattei Plan, says 'fits our vision',” Ansa English, 28 January 2024)
 
SPAIN

Government plan to pass amnesty bill triggers protests
On 28 January, thousands of people in Madrid gathered to protest the amnesty given for Catalan separatists on the failed secession bid in 2017. The protest was organised by the conservative opposition party “Partido Popular” (PP), and was attended by Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the party leader, Mariano Rajoy, former prime minister and Diaz Ayuso, president of the Madrid area. According to reports from the police, 45,000 had taken part in the protest holding placards with the sign “No to amnesty.” Feijoo said: “..nobody will force a country on us that we have not voted for.” For Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s Prime Minister the decision is important as the support from the Catalan parties are important to hold the government. The Amnesty bill is scheduled to be voted in the lower house of the Parliament and if passed, would remove the legal charges on the Catalan activist who played important role in the 2017 secession attempt. (“Spain: Mass rally in Madrid against Catalan amnesty bill,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Burkina Faso receives tonnes of wheat as gift from Russia
On 26 January, Nandy Some Diallo, Burkina Faso’s Minister for solidarity and humanitarian action expressed gratitude for the grain delivery of 25,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. Ties between Moscow and Burkina Faso which was closed since the fall of USSR gained back after Russia opened its embassy again in December 2023. The country which is currently witnessing acute food shortage and quarter of all children under age five experience stunted growth. This is due to severe security crisis and the failure of the military junta to counter Islamist militants. Russia being one of the largest producers of wheat is predicted to supply 45 million tonnes of wheat by 2024. (Natasha Booty, “Burkina Faso thanks Russia for 'priceless gift' of wheat,” BBC, 28 January 2024)
 

The US grants sale of F-16 jets to Turkey
On 27 January, the US government approved sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey worth USD 23 billion following Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession bill. As per the deal, 40 F-16 fighter jets will be sent to Turkey along with modernisation kits. The US will also be sending 40 F-35 fighter jets to Greece worth USD 8.6 billion. Sale of fighter jets to Turkey was withheld in the congress earlier due to its delay in approving Sweden’s entry into the NATO, Turkey’s human rights record and also its act to hold Russia accountable for the war in Ukraine. (“US approves F-16 fighter jet sale to Turkey worth $23bn,” BBC, 26 January 2024)


26 January 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #740

French Court deems one-third of the immigration bill unconstitutional

Reports estimates major victory for far-right in the EU elections; Farmers’ protests continue for the second week in France

Photo : Lafargue Raphael/ABACA/picture alliance


In Brief
By Rosemary Kurian

FRANCE
Farmers’ protests continue for the second week
On 25 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the blockade by farmers’ unions of major highways in south-west France as they approached Paris. Major highways have been barricaded and roads blocked over their demands of reduced diesel price, EU subsidies and slashed bureaucratic procedures. This marks the greatest challenge in Gabriel Attal, the new French Prime Minister’s agenda as the right-wing, led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, takes the opportunity to frame Macron’s government against farmers’ interests. Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, has inaugurated her “strategic dialogue” with the farmers to heed to their concerns and suggest alternatives before the European Parliament elections. (“France: Farmer protests edge closer to Paris,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2024)
 

French Court deems one-third of the immigration bill unconstitutional
On 25 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the decision by the French Constitutional Council to declare 32 out of the 86 articles of the controversial immigration bill unconstitutional. Almost one-third of the bill has been rejected by the court which had created significant anger and protests against the government. Macron’s government was forced to add these parts to gain the support of the far-right parties due to a failure to achieve a majority in the lower house. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally called the decision a “coup by the judges”. The bill as law suggested cutting of social benefits for immigrants and made family reunification difficult. (“France's top court rules against parts of immigration bill”, Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Reports estimates major victory for far-right in the EU elections
On 25 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the report published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) that predicted a major victory for far-right parties in the European Parliament elections in June. The report sees a potential coalition between conservative parties and radical groups in the Parliament that could significantly alter EU policy towards climate and immigration. The AfD in Germany is emerging as the second largest in the state, and Geert Wilders’ party for Freedom won most seats in the Netherlands. The report predicts far-right victory in France and Italy and a close second in Spain, Sweden and Germany in the polls. A far-right victory could hamper the European Green Deal and create anti-immigration policies that could affect the European agenda, given member states accept. (Roshni Majumdar, “Right-wing parties forecast for gains in 2024 EU elections,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2024)


25 January 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #739

Railway union calls for the longest strike in German history

Two killed during the protest by farmers in France; EU farmers express their frustration over the EU “technocrats”

Photo : REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch


In Brief
By Rosemary Kurian

FRANCE
Two killed during the protest by farmers
On 24 January, the BBC reported on the death of a 35-year-old farmer and her 12-year-old daughter as a car crashed into a roadblock during a protest by farmers in Toulouse. In the south-west of France, one of its key agricultural regions, farmers have blocked roads to protest against EU climate policies and energy costs after a meeting with Gabriel Attal, the French Prime Minister. A report on the accident in its initial review suggests that the incident was not deliberate. The victim farmer was a member of the FNSEA farmers’ union, a key union leading the protests in France. The protesting farmers have been named “gilets verts’ (green jackets), holding the yellow jacket movement as a precursor. (Chris Bockman and Paul Kirby, “French protests: Female farmer and daughter killed as car hits French protesters”, BBC, 24 January 2024)
 

French MEP Hayer to lead Renew party in the EU Parliament
On 24 January, Politico reported on the decision by the Renew Party, the third largest in the European Parliament, to appoint the French MEP Valérie Hayer as the leader of the Renew Party, ahead of elections in June. The Renew party consists of centrist and liberal politicians and with Hayer, who is also co-leader to the Europe Delegation led by French President Emmanuel Macron, the party could potentially be under French control. Others interested in the post have conducted negotiations with Hayer and agreed to her nomination, in a group content with a single leader nomination. Since the rise of right and far-right parties in Europe, the Renew Party is expected to slide from third largest to the fourth or fifth position. (Eddy Wax, “French Renew MEP Valérie Hayer on course to lead European Parliament’s third-largest faction”, Politico, 24 January 2024)
 
GERMANY

Railway union calls for the longest strike in German history
On 24 January, the BBC reported on the strike called by the GDL rail drivers’ union as an extension of a long-standing dispute with the state-owned Deutsche Bahn (DB). The strike has been called for six days to force the government to fulfil the union’s demands of increasing their pay due to inflation and cutting their work hours without a pay cut. Until the strike ends, the DB has announced an emergency timetable of the rail schedule. Such a halt in railways, for a cumulative 136 hours, is the first in recorded history. Volker Wissing, the German Transport Minister, urged for dialogue with the union but offered no acceptable solution. The rail drivers are demanding the cutting of the work week from 38 to 35 hours without a pay cut. The strike has halted significant movement and could cost the German economy up to EUR 1 billion. The current offer by the DB is either a one hour cut in the work week with no pay cut or a rise in wage by 2.7 per cent. (Paul Kirby, “German train drivers stage longest strike on record,” BBC, 24 January 2024)
 
TURKEY

Parliament approves Sweden’s accession into NATO with 287 in favour
On 23 January, Politico reported on the decision by the Turkey’s parliament to ratify Sweden’s membership into NATO, with a majority of 287 votes to 55 in the assembly. Following the ratification, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkey’s Prime Minister, is expected to sign the final approval for accession. The diplomatic talks which went over 20 months concluded positively for Sweden, as Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General, focused his attention on getting Ankara’s approval as he expected Hungary to be a lesser problem. Erdoğan, however, turned out to be a lesser problem for Sweden than Viktor Orbán, the Hungary’s Prime Minister. Orbán is following the same disruptive strategy he follows in EU policy making, which leaders of NATO earlier considered an act for relevance. Orbán has shown his criticism over Sweden’s claim of democratic backsliding in Hungary. Orbán’s Hungary is the last NATO country in the 31-member military alliance to approve Sweden’s accession. Sweden left its policy of neutrality and approached NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Stuart Lau and Leyla Aksu, “Turkey approves Sweden’s NATO bid, leaving Orbán as final holdout”, Politico, 23 January 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU farmers express their frustration over the EU “technocrats”
On 24 January, Politico reported on the frustration of farmers protesting across the EU over the policy decisions made by “technocrats” in the EU, claiming that the EU’s climate-friendly policies were harming their livelihoods. Several French farmers are headed to the European Parliament to express their anger. The “over-regulation” by the EU through carbon emission cuts and high taxes have made farmers susceptible to unfair international competition. The EU’s decision to cancel import duties for grain from Ukraine due to the Russian invasion has led to protests in Romania and Poland due to unfair competition and threat to their source of income. The far-right parties have utilised the protests to propagate their agenda. Farmers suggest they are largely apolitical because they do not believe any party reaching them can help them as the EU “technocrats” “call the shots” in policies. (Nicolas Camut, “Frustrated farmers slam EU ‘technocrats’ who ‘call the shots’ in Brussels protest,” Politico, 24 January 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Trump's victory could mean the end of NATO’s security in Europe says Daalder
On 25 January, Politico presented the opinion of Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO on the potential weakening of the NATO military alliance led by the US, if Trump is elected as the President of the US. During his previous term, Trump had warned that NATO was obsolete, therefore he would pull out American support. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the significance of NATO to Europe’s security was brought into light. If the US pulls out of the alliance, it will continue to exist, with most members being Europeans and Canada. However, it would lose its efficiency since many resources including the supreme commander of NATO have been US contributions. It would cease to be a formidable threat of deterrence to Russia, putting European security at risk. Even if an elected Trump does not pull out of the military alliance, it would weaken in its potential without a significant US presence, given Trump’s dislike towards most international alliances that invest in the security of other states. (Ivo Daalder, “What another Trump presidency would mean for NATO,” Politico, 25 January 2024)


24 January 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #738

Estonia and Turkey celebrate a hundred years of diplomatic relations

Tenth EU- Egypt Association Council meeting; calls to promote multilateralism; Swiss and Russian Foreign Ministers meet ahead of the UNSC meeting

Photo : Embassy of Estonia Ankara


In Brief
By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

LATVIA
Protests demanding to stop import and transit of Russian goods
On 23 January, according to ENG.LSM.lv, the association, The Rising Sun (Austošā Saule) protested the continued import of Russian goods, as it is immoral. Latvia is also undergoing discussions as to whether to stop the transit of Russian food grains to third-world countries as it contains the risk of being stolen from Ukraine. Armands Krauze, Agriculture Minister on 23 January called for a ban on Russian agricultural and food imports in the EU and sanctions for Russian grains at the EU Council of Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers. (“Rally against imports from Russia in Rīga,” ENG.LSM.lv, 23 January 2024)

GERMANY

Government pulls subsidies from far-right party
On 23 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the decision by Germany’s Constitutional Court to withdraw state subsidies and tax exemptions granted to the far-right party ‘Nationalist Democratic Party of Germany’ due to a failure to get enough votes. The party is known to have anti-constitutional views which led to the court’s decision to suspend state aid. Government officials are deliberating if the same principle can be used against the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD). German law states that attempts to undermine the constitutional order of the state are subject to the withdrawal of subsidies. (“Top German court strips financing of extreme-right party,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2024)
 
POLAND 

President Duda pardons arrested former ministers 
On 23 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Andrzej Duda, the Poland's President’s decision to pardon two former ministers belonging to his party, who were arrested a few weeks ago. Mariusz Kaminski and Maciej Wasik, the former ministers, were seeking refuge in the President’s Palace, and were arrested due to the conviction of abuse of power carried out during 2007. Kaminski and Wasik are supporters of Duda and his Law and Justice Party (PiS), which led Poland for eight years. The ex-ministers were pardoned by Duda in 2015, which was overturned by Poland’s Supreme Court in 2023. Duda’s decision created a rift between his party, the PiS, and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk. (“Poland: Duda pardons politicians jailed for abuse of power,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2024)

SWITZERLAND

EPFL study reveals health effects of heat islands
On 23 January, Swissinfo reported on the health costs and adverse effects of health islands based on the study undertaken by the federal technology institute, the École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)  in Lausanne. The research highlighted the financial costs amounting up to CHF180 per adult per year due to the effects of heat islands, whereas also reported how these result in increased cardiovascular and respiratory risks and risks at reducing overall life expectancy. The research also underlined how the heat islands of Geneva cause four additional heat-related deaths, but prevent 3.4 cold-related deaths, per 100,000 residents per year. (“Urban heat islands have a health cost, according to Swiss study,” Swissinfo.ch, 23 January 2024)
 

New food laws to come into effect from February
On 23 January, Swissinfo reported revision of food laws focusing on reducing certain chemicals, with emphasis on increasing transparency for consumers, such as a declaration of origin of baked goods by retail sellers as wholesale import prices rose by 65 per cent in the last decade. The Swiss government has imposed maximum limits for the use of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, “forever chemicals,” as they have harmful effects on the development of foetuses and immune systems of adults. Changes in allowing redistribution of unsold food are aimed at reducing food waste commitments by 2030, as currently 2.8 million tonnes of food waste per year is generated in Switzerland. The new law allows for on-farm slaughter, allowing for a humane option as earlier it was required to transport animals to slaughterhouses, according to the Food Safety and Veterinary Office. (“New Swiss food laws for 2024: bread, chemicals and food waste,” Swissinfo.ch, 23 January 2024)

REGIONAL

Estonia and Turkey celebrate a hundred years of diplomatic relations
On 23 January, the countries celebrated a hundred years of diplomatic relations since the day Turkey recognised the independent Republic of Estonia while calling to continue cooperation in the future. Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs praised Turkey for never officially acknowledging the Soviet occupation of Estonia and highlighted the nation’s significance in ensuring security. A brief timeline of their relations would trace the nations signing a treaty of friendship between Estonia and Türkiye on 01 December 1924, leading to the opening of an Estonian Consulate General in Istanbul in 1929. The nations restored their ties formally on 23 October 1991, followed by which Embassy of the Republic of Estonia was opened in Ankara in 2005. (“MFA: Estonia, Turkey celebrate century of diplomatic relations,” ERR News, 23 January 2024  and “Estonia and Türkiye: 100 Years of Diplomatic Relations,” Embassy of Estonia Ankara)

INTERNATIONAL

Swiss and Russian Foreign Ministers meet ahead of the UNSC meeting
On 23 January, Swissinfo reported Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis meeting with Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister in New York, before the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Meeting, and stated on their discussion of “important issues.” The previous week, Russia had rejected Switzerland’s initiative to undertake a World Peace Initiative with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President. Cassis had met several Foreign Ministers in New York, including the major intermediary between the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey. (“Swiss and Russian foreign ministers meet in New York,” Swissinfo.ch, 23 January 2024)
 

Tenth EU- Egypt Association Council meeting; calls to promote multilateralism 
On 23 January, the tenth EU-Egypt Association Council meeting took place in Brussels marking the 20th anniversary of the Association Agreement. The meeting co-chaired by Josep Borrell, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Sameh Shoukry, Foreign Minister of Egypt, reviewed the development made in the Joint Partnership Priorities and called for increased multilateralism and cooperation for rules-based international order, and reiterated their cooperation for maintaining stability and peace in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa. The meeting expressed their concern for the humanitarian losses in Gaza and jointly expressed their support for a two-state solution which would end the occupation and establish an independent Palestine State drawn on the lines of 04 January 1967, while reiterating the need for humanitarian pauses in the ongoing conflict and protection of civilians in accordance to international law. EU reiterated its support towards Egyptian water security while both parties acknowledged the freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. The meeting also focused on their commitment towards climate change mitigation and the development of sustainable agriculture and industry. Other areas of focus reiterated in the joint statement include efforts against combating terrorism, cooperation in technology innovation and adoption of a comprehensive approach to migration governance. (“10th EU-Egypt Association Council meeting: Joint press statement by Egypt and the European Union,”  European Council 23 January 2024)

Germany extends economic partnership with Vietnam
On 23 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the visit by Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German President in Vietnam, to expand German economic interests in Asia. The visit is an effort to push Germany’s ‘China-de risking strategy’ during his four-day tour of Southeast Asia. Steinemeir was welcomed with military honours at Hanoi by Vo Van Tthoung, the Vietnamese President. Both presidents signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) facilitating the flow of skilled labour from Vietnam to Germany, one clear of “bureaucratic hurdles.” (“German president visits Vietnam with business delegation,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2024)

 

23 January 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #737

Von der Leyen drafts election campaign standards for commissioners

New tax regime to affect expats in Belgium; Germany suggests means to curb drug trafficking; The US & the UK launch fresh strikes against Houthis

Photo : cece.eu


BELGIUM
New tax regime to affect expats 
On 22 January, Politico reported on the decision by the Belgian Parliament to scrap the special expatriate tax regime, which allowed tax benefits to expatriates working in Belgium since 1983. The new scheme would grant such benefits only to those earning over EUR 75,000 gross income per year, which could only apply to perhaps 10 per cent of expatriates. The new regime was an effort to close a loophole in the tax system that was meant to allow tax benefits to temporary workers from abroad. Expats will now go through the same tax regime as Belgian residents, which has the potential to reduce the attractiveness of the Belgian employment market to foreigners who might now prefer France and the Netherlands. The high taxes on expats would, however, benefit Belgian companies as the previous necessity to hire consultants to calculate differential tax benefits would no longer be needed. (Ketrin Jochecová, “Expats in Belgium face life under new tax regime”, Politico, 22 January 2024)

FRANCE
Farmers' protests the key agenda before EU elections
On 22 January, Politico reported on the continued farmers’ discontent in France, becoming the campaign agenda ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. Gabriel Attal, the French Prime Minister, supported President Macron’s past efforts and tried to understand farmers’ concerns. He promised to give the farmers their fair share and balance their needs with environmental restrictions.  Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old far-right leader and key contender of the campaign under Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, blamed “Macron’s Europe” to be against the agricultural sector and called for a “state of emergency” of the farming sector. The protests that have spread through France, Poland, Germany and Romania over taxes, subsidy cuts and the EU policy of ‘Farm to Fork’ have become a deciding factor ahead of EU elections and governments are trying to battle against the mounting pressure from far-right groups who urge a protectionist policy on farming, threatening Macron’s rural support base. (Victor Goury-Laffont, “Farmers’ protests sweep France, seizing agenda before EU elections,Politico, 22 January 2024)

GERMANY
Lawmakers consider creating a ‘European army’
On 23 January, Deutsche Welle reported on a proposal that could allow European citizens outside of EU countries to serve in the Bundeswehr, the German Army. Boris Pistorius, the German Defence Minister, first suggested the plan due to severe shortage of personnel in the defence forces. This could allow Europeans in the UK (former EU state) and the neutral state of Switzerland to join the Bundeswehr. Europeans who have spent years in Germany can use the opportunity to speed up their naturalisation process, according to Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the chair of the Bundestag’s defence committee. The proposal foresees the creation of a “European army in the long term,” since Germany is cooperating with France and the Netherlands to secure the deal. It could also be extended to potential future members of the EU and even NATO (which will be complicated due to American domestic politics). Pistorius aims to create a war-ready European army within eight years, which Strack-Zimmermann wants done in five, given the creation of bulwarks by Baltic states due to the Russian threat. (Zac Crellin, “Germany weighs allowing foreign citizens into the army,Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2024)

Germany suggests means to curb drug trafficking
On 22 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the decision by Germany to engage in global cooperation to curb the threats of drug trafficking within Europe. Nancy Faeser, the German Interior Minister, stated that drug smugglers were targeting the German port of Hamburg and other major ports in Belgium, France and the Netherlands and perpetuating a “spiral of violence” against journalists and prosecutors in these countries. Faeser would be visiting South America to extend cooperation with them to prevent smuggling into Europe. She also recommended preventative measures through identification of companies involved in trafficking and threats extended to port workers by cartels. (“Germany calls for more global action against drug smugglers,Deutsche Welle, 22 January 2024)

 

Doppelganger murders lookalike to fake her death
On 22 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the Bavarian court dismissal of the plea to delay the trial of a Beautician, who murdered her lookalike, to make it look like it was her death. After contacting the lookalike through Instagram, the accused invited her to Ingolstadt under the promise of a free beauty treatment, where the accused instead took the victim to a wooded area and stabbed her more than 50 times. The reason for the defendant to fake her death is due to disagreements between her family and her former partner. Konrad Kliegal, the presiding judge refused the plea from defence requesting a pause on the trial as new investigation files were submitted to the court. (Richard Connor, “German 'doppelganger' fake death murder trial moves ahead,” Deutsche Welle, 22 January 2024)

 

THE UK
House of Lords called for delay of ratification of UK-Rwanda treaty
On 23 January, BBC reported the House of Lords voted 214 to 17, urging the government to not ratify the treaty until the gaps in Rwanda’s Asylum procedures are completed. Although the vote is a non-binding motion, it represents the extent of opposition Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will face. The motion was proposed by Lord Goldsmith, Labour Party’s former Attorney General highlighted the 10 outstanding issues with Rwanda’s asylum system and reported that “protections promised by Rwanda’s treaty haven’t been introduced yet.” According to the government, the new treaty establishes an appeal body, an independent committee with powers to enforce the treaty and a monitoring committee, which will allow the asylum seekers and their lawyers to file complaints. (Sam Francis & Harry Farley, “Rwanda asylum scheme: Peers vote against approving Rwanda treaty,” BBC, 23 January 2024)

 

REGIONAL 
Von der Leyen drafts election campaign standards for commissioners
On 22 January, Politico reported on the document, dated 21 January, drafted by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen sets out rules and ethical standards to be followed by commissioners who want to run for European Parliament elections scheduled in June. According to the rules, the commissioners who want to contest as a candidate for European Parliament elections or stand as their party’s lead for becoming European Commissioner President will not be allowed to use the staff, budget and other office resources for their Commission for their campaign purposes. They are also guided to have separate social media accounts to differentiate between their statements made as a European Commissioner and as a candidate. Von der Leyen is yet to confirm if she will be running for a second term, however, the announcement regarding the same is expected next month. This document would be adopted by the College of Commissioners on 24 January. (Barbara Moens, “Don’t give up the day job! Von der Leyen sets out election campaign rules for commissioners (including herself),” Politico, 22 January 2024)

European Commission to adopt an Economic Security Strategy
On 19 January, Politico reported on the European Commission plan to adopt an Economic Security Strategy by 24 January to deal with the economic risks accompanied by the geopolitical tensions between China and the US. Brussels through the new strategy aims to protect and promote domestically developed technology and industry, a common approach for exports and a monitoring of external investments. The entire strategy is mostly non-binding legislation, with three strategic papers and one proposal positioned as guidance for the members. This proposal would increase Brussels' powers as now the Commission would be able to screen external investments made by the bloc members, which was earlier solely limited to the powers of national governments. (Camille Gijs, Pieter Haeck, Kathryn Carlson and Koen Verhelst, “EU warms up for fight over economic security,” Politico, 19 January 2024)

INTERNATIONAL
British Conservatives divided over Trump Support for 2024
On 23 January, Politico reported the clear distinction among Conservatory Party MPs for their support for Trump 2.0, as a strong number of Tory MPs have expressed praise for the former president. Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome along with other Tories, position Trump as ‘pro-Britain’ and given the growing closeness between China, Russia and Iran, they believe the US would attempt to project similar strength. Trump’s support by the ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, highlighted how his “presidency can be a big win for the world.” However, other conflicting Tories were amused at British politicians supporting a candidate who has “no respect for rule of law and democratic institutions.” ( Andrew Mcdonald, “Britain’s Conservatives are warming to Donald Trump 2.0,” Politico, 23 January 2024)

 

The US & the UK launch fresh strikes against Houthis 
On 23 January, the BBC reported on the second joint attack by American and British forces against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, hitting eight targets targeting ships in the Red Sea. The US and the UK stated that the attacks were to enable the “free flow of commerce” in the Red Sea, a key global choke point, and to de-escalate the conflict. A joint statement suggested a potential new round of strikes, if necessary, against Houthi targets. David Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, stated that the UK demands a “permanent, sustainable ceasefire” in Gaza. The strike aimed at “self-defence” from Houthi attacks was conducted with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. (Ruth Comerford and Frank Gardner, “US and UK launch fresh strikes on Houthis in Yemen,BBC, 23 January 2024)


22 January 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #736

Four-man space crew from ESA lands on International Space Station

Photo : Cem Tekkesinoglu/Anadolu/picture alliance


In Brief
By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

FRANCE
Three police officers suspended over brutal racial assault 
On 20 January, BBC reported the suspended sentences of the three French policemen who had brutally assaulted Théo Luhaka leaving him with permanent disability and irreversible anal injuries. The three officers in February 2017, had assaulted Luhaka during a stop and search in Aulnay-sous-Bois, where he was also racially abused and spat at. Officer Marc-Antoine Castelain was handed a 12-month suspension for being found guilty of the assault whereas the other two officers, Jeremie Dulin and Tony Hochart, were handed a three-month suspension for intentional violence. (“Théo Luhaka: French police officers given suspended sentences for brutal assault,” BBC, 20 January 2024)

Temporary ban for commercial fishing in Bay of Biscay
On 20 January, according to the BBC, France announced a temporary ban on commercial fishing, starting 22 January till 20 February to protect dolphins. As French marine experts estimate the death of 9000 dolphins in the Bay of Biscay, each year due to being caught accidentally in fishing gear. All boats longer than 8m will be banned, putting 450 vessels out of fishing. This ban sparked criticism from fishermen, who fear the loss of their livelihood and the fishing industry estimated a loss of millions of euros. However, the French government has promised compensation, and according to Minister Christophe Béchu, “75% of losses would be covered and paid as quickly as possible." (“Bay of Biscay: France temporarily bans fishing to protect dolphins,” BBC, 20 January 2024)

 

RUSSIA
Communists gather for centenary of Lenin’s death
On 22 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the celebration of 100 years since the death of Vladimir Lenin, the founder of the USSR. Few communists gathered near Moscow’s Red Square, to pay their respects outside the mausoleum where Lenin lies, in a gathering led by Gennady Zyuganov, the General Secretary of the Russian Communist Party. Vladimir Putin’s absence was noted, as a critic of Lenin, blaming him for committing grave errors in dismantling Tsarist Russia. The opinion of the Russian population on Lenin is divided between a revolutionary saviour or a “ruthless despot.” (“Russian communists mark 100 years since Lenin's death,Deutsche Welle, 22 January 2024) 

SWITZERLAND
Swiss Councillor in India to finalise FTA 
On 21 January, swissinfo reported on the meeting between Guy Parmelin, the head of the Swiss Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research and his Indian counterpart to reach an agreement of free trade between India and the EFTA countries. The negotiations for the agreement that went on for 16 years, concluded with agreements on patent protection and investment promotion among other things. The agreement would create jobs in India and encourage eco-friendly technology while also benefiting the poor, according to Parmelin. (“Swiss economics minister in India for final push on EFTA trade agreement,” swissinfo, 21 January 2024)

Footwear maker On criticised for making unethical profits
On 19 January, swissinfo reported on the steep growth of the Swiss footwear maker On, which prides itself of having Tennis legend Roger Federer as an investor, through unethical means. On has the fifth largest market capitalisation in the world and increased its net sales by 68.7 per cent in the first year. However, the Swiss consumer magazine Ktipp noted that On has exorbitant markups that cheat Swiss consumers by a minimum of 10 per cent. On is also known to pay its suppliers, mostly in Vietnam, an average minimum wage based on Vietnamese standards and below a living wage despite its steep profits. (Anand Chandrasekhar, “Is Swiss footwear brand On getting too greedy for its own good?,swissinfo, 19 January 2024)

REGIONAL
The EU considers its Red Sea mission to deter Houthis
On 22 January, Deutsche Welle reported on a plan proposed by the EU to deter the Houthi attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea. After the US-UK strike against the Houthis in Yemen, the EU decided on an alternative maritime mission with a defensive nature, separate from the US-led ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian.’ The EU fears a greater escalation in the war if it interferes against the Iran-backed militants. The EU’s foreign diplomacy service, the European External Action Service, has suggested sending warships in the Red Sea to patrol the region. They recommend the reorientation of Agenor, an existing French mission in the Strait of Hormuz. Antonia Tajani, the Italian Foreign Minister, stated that the expansion of the Agenor mission is an easy solution. The EU, however, remains concerned about potential escalation of conflict, as well as a potential failure of the mission, which could make it look weak. (Ella Joyner, “Red Sea crisis: Can EU warships deter Houthi rebels?,” 22 January 2024)

INTERNATIONAL
Putin’s potential visit to Pyongyang in the works
On 21 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential visit to Pyongyang as North Korea’s state agency news (KNCA) reported the president’s willingness for the same when he met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Moscow. KNCA also reported on the agreement of both nations for greater strategic and tactical cooperation, whereas Russia expressed its gratitude for North Korea’s support in its war against Ukraine. The US predicts a drastic change in the threat posed by both these countries if they continue seeking closer ties, while Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from North Korea has also raised concerns among the US and its allies. The KNCA is yet to release a date for Putin’s North Korea visit, however, it’s expected to take place in the foreseeable future. (“North Korea says Putin planning Pyongyang visit,” Deutsche Welle, 21 January 2024)

Russian aircraft crashes in Afghan’s Badakhshah province
On 21 January, according to Deutsche Welle, a Russian aircraft, presumed as a Russian charted ambulance is reported to have crashed in Badakhshah, a mountainous province sharing borders with China, Tajikistan and Pakistan. Four among the six onboard survived the crash, including the pilot, whereas two were reported dead by Taliban Officials. The flight was en route to Mosicw, via Uzbekistan from Thailand and had refuelled in India, according to their statement. The ambulance charter was a Dassault Falcon 10 jet, which was French-made in 1978. (“Russian plane crashes in northeastern Afghanistan mountains,” Deutsche Welle, 21 January 2024)

Four-man space crew lands on International Space Station
On 20 January, according to Deutsche Welle, the mission Ax-3, operated by Axionm Space, landed on the International Space Station. The four-man crew consisted of Axiom Commander Lopez-Algeria, a Spanish retired NASA executive, and the second in command, Walter Villadei, Italian Air Force Colonel. Joined by Marcus Wandt, who represented the European Space Agency, and Turkey’s first astronaut, Alper Gezeravci represented the Turkish Space Agency. Launched from NASA” Kennedy Space Centre in Florida, using the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon capsule, the astronauts will spend two weeks on International Space Station ISS, studying the effects of microgravity on human beings among other things. (“Four-man crew arrives at ISS with Turkey's first astronaut,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2024)

 

EU & US near deal to allow police access to e-info to investigate cases
On 18 January, Politico reported on the decision between the EU and the US to reach a deal that would allow European police forces to access information from American tech forms to investigate cases. The agreement has had previous concerns over breach of privacy and potentially, civil rights. The US can already access information from major companies like Google, Amazon and Meta through its CLOUD Act (2018) while data requested from the EU take years to get approved. The concerns to the agreement include both a breach of privacy and potential by countries with democratic backsliding to misuse the powers. (Clothilde Goujard, “
EU, US near deal on police access to online data,” Politico, 18 January 2024)


20 January 2024, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #735

Baltic Assembly reassert support for Ukraine; To set up common Baltic defence zone

Brussels to join European mission in the Red Sea; Bundestag passes bill easing naturalisation and dual citizenship

Photo : Reinis Inkēns, Saeima


In Brief
By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

BELGIUM
Brussels to join European mission in the Red Sea
On 19 January, Politico reported Belgium’s decision to send a warship, the frigate Louise-Marie, equipped with 16 anti-missile Sea Sparrow missiles to the European Mission in the Red Sea. After much reluctance from the left-wing parties in Hadja Labib, Belgium’s Foreign Affairs Minister announced the country’s participation in the mission countering attacks by Houthi rebels and would focus on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza while ensuring access for humanitarian aid convoys in the region. (Jeremy Van Der Haegen, “Belgium sends warship to Red Sea,” Politico, 19 January 2024)

ESTONIA
Bunkers to be built along border with Russia for defence
On 19 January, ERR News reported on the decision by Estonia to install hundreds of bunkers along the Russian border, in a plan by the Baltic states to build “anti-mobility defensive installations” to strengthen Baltic defence, as decided during the 2023 NATO Summit in Madrid. The bunkers would be built in peacetime and can be used for other purposes, and explosives and barbed wire would be avoided to maintain the peacetime. The installations would help prevent a regional military conflict and are expected to start by 2025 at a planned budget of EUR 60 million. However, they wouldn’t be built across the sea coast, which shall employ an alternative maritime strategy using missiles and naval mines. (“Estonia to build 600 bunkers along Russian border,ERR News, 19 January 2024)

Estonia in favour of investigation against Serbian elections
On 19 January, ERR News reported on an open letter signed by Marko Mihkelson, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament), and other EU affairs countries from 16 countries asking the EU to conduct an independent investigation against suspected malpractices in the Serbian parliamentary and local elections. The signatory countries including Denmark, Italy, Germany, France, Ukraine and the UK hope to see Serbia as a member of the EU in this decade and called for the investigation to fulfil its requirement as a democracy respecting the rule of law, and over concerns of its continued allegiance to the Russian Federation. The committees have urged the EU to conduct fresh elections in Serbia, depending on the results of its investigation. (“Estonia signs open letter calling for Serbian elections investigation,ERR News, 19 January 2024)

GERMANY
Scholz condemns right-wing intentions of ‘deportations’
On 19 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the support shown by Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, towards protests condemning plans by the right wing AfD party to mass deport migrants. Scholz likened the plan with Nazi ideology and stated that the act by right-wing extremists was a threat to democracy. Protests arose after the German investigative site Correctiv exposed a meeting among right-wing extremists of the AfD and their plans towards mass deportations from Germany. Demonstrations in Hamburg were brought to a close due to overwhelming attendance by protesters, reaching up to 50,000, according to the Agence-France Presse. Protesters have planned another 90 demonstrations in German cities including Frankfurt, Nuremberg, Bonn, Berlin and Munich this weekend. (“Germany: Scholz welcomes protests against far right,Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2024)

Bundestag passes bill easing naturalisation and dual citizenship
On 19 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the decision by the Bundestag, the German lower house of the parliament, to pass a bill which allows naturalisation of citizenship in five instead of eight years and expanded the reach of dual citizenship to most countries (and not just the EU). In a move to increase skilled labour in Germany, Nancy Faeser, the German interior minister, stated that they are replicating the US and Canada in attracting qualified people. The bill was voted against by conservative (CDU, CSU) and far-right (AfD) parties in an attempt to “preserve the value of German citizenship”. The coalition government under Scholz has promised to strengthen laws against illegal immigration and failed asylum seekers. (“Germany's parliament approves easing dual citizenship”, Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2024)

LITHUANIA
Youth remain uninterested in politics
On 11 January, Delfi.en reported on the lack of interest showcased by Lithuanian youth towards political processes and civic responsibilities in the country. Umberto Masi, the President of the Lithuanian Youth Council, agrees to insufficient youth participation and blames the flaws in civic education as the primary cause. Further, the period of Russian occupation of Lithuania, mental health issues and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to youth behaviour. Given the effect each issue has on the youth, Masi stated that youth voices often go undervalued. Lithuanian youth are passionate about ecology, climate change, LGBTQIA+ rights, education and employment. Masi suggested that the youth need to be honed towards being better citizens through practical activities in the form of civic and community engagement and rethink the methods used in schools. He further stressed on the importance of the need for the youth to feel heard on matters that directly affect them. (Gabija Zdanytė, “Why young Lithuanians, too, are disappointed with politicians, explained.Delfi.en, 11 January 2024)

THE UK
UK Health agency declares national incident; cites surge in measles
On 19 January, Politico reported the declaration of a national incident by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) stating the need for immediate action to increase the uptake of measles, mumps and rubella vaccines (MMR). Jenny Harries, Chief Executive of the agency also cited the need for a long-term plan to prevent large measles outbreaks. Risk groups involve women, babies and children with weak immune systems. Besides London, West Midlands witnessed the highest cases and reported 216 confirmed and 103 probable cases in Birmingham city. The agency also reported on the risks faced by low-vaccinated communities. (Mari Eccles, “UK disease agency declares national incident as measles cases soar,” Politico, 19 January 2024)

REGIONAL
Baltic Assembly reassert support for Ukraine; To set up common Baltic defence zone
On 19 January 2024, according to ENG LSM.Iv, the Baltic Assembly comprising of parliaments of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania reasserted their unequivocal support for Ukraine’s “integration into Europe and the Euro-Atlantic space” while demanding the need for Jānis Vucāns, vice-president of the Baltic Assembly said: “European actions to ensure the complete victory of Europe.” The assembly also emphasised the provision of military, financial and political support to Ukraine to enable them to recover their territories, while urging the international community to increase their sanction on Russia. The countries also agreed on setting up common Baltic Defense zones on their borders with Russia and Belarus. As per this plan, the states would focus on building while also constructing "anti-mobility defensive installations," to ensure missile-artillery cooperation while Estonia plans on building 600 bunkers, along the 294-kilometre-long border with Russia. According to Arvydas Anušauskas, Lithuanian Defence Minister, the country stated its current collaboration with the US to develop HIMARS rocket capabilities. Whereas Latvia stated the completion of its anti-mobility plans, and increase in other border-strengthening steps. (“Baltic parliaments reaffirm strong support for Ukraine,”  ENG LSM.Iv, 19 January 2024 and Sergey Goryashiko, “Baltic states plan common defense zone on Russia border as security concerns mount,” Politico, 19 January 2024)


Lithuanian Prime Minister discusses the EU security with Commissioner Breton
On 19 January, EN Delfi reported on the meeting held by Ingrida Šimonytė, the Lithuanian Prime Minister with Thierry Breton, European Union Commissioner for Internal Market and discussed matters of strengthening the EU security and defence industry. Šimonytė also called for increased military support to Ukraine, while highlighting that future strategies should ensure the development of defence capabilities production and reserves. On the economic front, she underlined the importance of involvement and integration of small and medium-sized enterprises in the EU supply chains. (“PM discusses strengthening of EU security and defence industry with Commissioner Breton,” EN Delfi, 19 January 2024)

EU Commissioner promises production of a million shells annually
On 20 January, ERR News reported that Thierry Breton, the EU Commissioner for Internal Market, met with Kaja Kallas, the Estonian Prime Minister, to discuss the EU’s increasing capacity towards defence preparedness. In an attempt to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia, Kallas had proposed the ‘One Million Shells Initiative’ as a target for annual production for joint procurement by the EU. Breton stated that the EU would reach its target of producing a million shells a year by March-April, 2024, and exceed its capacity by the end of the year. (EU commissioner Breton: Million shells will be produced in Europe by April,ERR News, 20 January 2024)


19 January 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #734

Top diplomat Sergei Lavrov dismisses US proposal to resume nuclear arms talks

Photo : Alexander Zemlianichenko / Associated Press


In Brief
By Alka Bala

INTERNATIONAL
EU sets a maximum limit of EUR 10,000 for cash payments aiming to reduce money laundering
On 19 January, Deutsche Welle reported the EU’s plan to combat money laundering and cryptocurrency. Financial intelligence units of member countries will have increased powers to supervise suspicious accounts and suspend transactions. New rules also require crypto-asset providers to undergo due diligence report suspicious activities of their customers, and monitor transactions up to EUR 1,000 or more. This EU regulation will expand to football clubs and agents as well. EU hopes that these measures will help in tackling widespread money laundering and terrorist financing. (Roshni Majumdar, “EU seeks cash payment limit, tougher money laundering rules,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2024)

GERMANY
Destatis reports a gender pay gap of 18 per cent
On 18 January, Deutsche Welle reported based on the research by the Federal Statistics Office, Destatis, that women earned 18 per cent less than men since 2020. Women earned an average of EUR 20.84 per hour whereas men earned EUR 25.3. The gender pay gap varied within Germany where East Germany had a lower gap at seven per cent. The gender pay gap could be likely due to women taking greater absences, due to childcare and household responsibilities. According to the report, the pay gap could also be caused by women’s greater involvement in marginal employment and part-time work. Across the EU women are paid 13 per cent less than men. (“Gender pay gap in Germany: Women earn 18% less than men,” Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2024)

SPAIN
18 people from a shamanic group arrested for providing psychoactive drugs 
On 18 January 2024, the BBC reported the arrest of 18 members of a shamanic organisation by Spanish police, alleging their involvement in providing hallucinogenic drugs to its members under the promise of promoting physical and mental health through such consumption. Police also seized EUR 24,000 (USD 26,000), in various currencies, and one kilogram (35oz) of mescaline. Some of the suspects are charged with human trafficking, violation of workers’ rights and smuggling, whereas the group leader posthumously was sexual crimes and promotion of illegal immigration. Besides Spain, the group has been reported to be active in 10 other countries, including Belgium, Ireland, Mexico, Colombia and Turkey. ( Sam Hancock, “Spain shaman arrests: Police say group sold psychoactive drugs to members,” BBC, 18 January 2024)

REGIONAL 
Sparks over treatment of the EU migrants to the UK
On 18 January, The Guardian in an opinion piece reported the row over the treatment of the EU migrants in the UK, citing the difficulty faced by a Spanish woman, residing and living in Bedfordshire on her re-entry to the UK, after a family visit to Spain. Britain, post-Brexit has been denying 4000 EU migrants into the country every quarter, citing undocumented work and study plans.  According to Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, most of the people rejected are from Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Portugal. Highlighting the loss of growth and trade as a result of Brexit, it’s questionable if Britain has succeeded in “taking back control of its borders,” as 142,000 EU citizens wait in anxiety and uncertainty for their settlement applications to be reviewed since September 2023. Whereas hostility in Britain’s actions regarding migration has led to a demand for reciprocal behaviour by the EU citizens. (María Ramírez, “EU citizens are being kicked out of the UK. In Spain, people are asking: why not treat Brits the same way?,” The Guardian, 18 January 2024)

RUSSIA
Top diplomat Sergei Lavrov dismisses US proposal to resume nuclear arms talks
On 18 January, El País reported the rejection of the US proposal for Russia and the US to resume dialogue on nuclear arms control. Russia’s Foreign Minister stated the nation’s disapproval of engaging in talks with the US, given its hostile policy against the former and its military support to Ukraine. Asking the US to revisit its current hostile policy, allowing nuclear inspections is the US trying to establish control over Russia’s nuclear arsenal, and to identify the risks that it faces. The New START treaty, which was signed in 2010, by the US and Russia was the only existing arms control treaty between the nations, It was halted during the pandemic and discontinued as Russia suspended its participation as the US and NATO stated it supported Ukraine and was committed towards the Russian defeat. (“Russia’s foreign minister rejects a US proposal to resume talks on nuclear arms control,” El País, 18 January 2024)

GERMANY
Parliament votes for easing the deportation of rejected asylum seekers
On 19 January, according to  El País, the German Parliament voted for legislation that eases the deportation of unsuccessful asylum seekers, allowing them temporary permission to stay in Germany for reasons such as illness, a child with residency and lack of ID. The legislation increased the maximum length of pre-deportation custody from 10 to 28 days, while specifically focusing on the deportation of individuals who are connected with criminal organisations. The legislation came through as thousands of people protested against the plans of the far-right to deport migrants. Germany to date has provided asylum to around one million Ukrainian refugees. (“German parliament approves legislation easing deportations of rejected asylum seekers,” El País, 19 January 2024)

REGIONAL
NATO to start the biggest military exercises with 90,000 personnel
On 18 January, El País reported NATO’s plans to conduct the biggest military exercises, named ‘Steadfast Defender 24’, would involve troops from 31 member nations including the recently joined member, Sweden. Exercises are scheduled to begin next week and troops will move through Europe till the end of May. The exercises come through as the Russia-Ukraine war continues and are aimed at displaying the strength and ability of the alliance to defend its entire territory up to the borders of Russia. The UK is expected to send 20,000 troops, accompanied by fighter jets, surveillance planes, warships and submarines and is expected to deploy them in Eastern Europe from February to June. (“NATO to start biggest wargames in decades next week, involving around 90,000 personnel,” El País, 18 January 2024)

EU institutions prepare to challenge transfer of funds to Budapest
On 18 January, El País reported the European Parliament’s 345-104 vote to challenge the European Commission if it had all the necessary measures “to protect EU’s financial interests”, before releasing funds to Hungary. The funds were supposed to be released after Hungary’s show of support for rule of law reforms on the independence of the judiciary and political interference. However, the parliamentarians feel that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán hadn’t done enough to earn the funds. They also criticised European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for her approval of funds before Hungary abstained to vote on a crucial Ukraine vote at a summit. EU leaders fund themselves at odds with Orbań’s actions and have blocked funds of around 20 billion euros due to similar rule of law concerns. (“European Union institutions gear up for a fight over Orbán’s rule of law record, funds for Hungary,” El País, 18 January 2024)

German arms industry ramps up production for Ukraine
On 16 January, Deutsche Welle reported in an opinion article about Germany and Russia increasing arms production as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Germany will be delivering the fourth Iris-T battery by the end of the winter and four more systems by 2024 according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat. Two major German arms contractors sending supplies to Ukraine are Rheinmetall, providing ammunition for Ukraine’s anti-aircraft tanks and Diehl Defense, which produces Iris-T. Earlier, Russia had presented its arms production figures, which stated a 50 times increase in ammunition production of small arms and a seven times increase in the production of tanks. However, Nico Lange, a security expert, commented on the quality of Russian battle tanks, which appear to be refurbished and lack modern targeting devices, highlighting its risks in combat. He emphasised how the outcome of a long war is ultimately decided by the quality of weapons. ( Frank Hofmann, “German arms makers boost supplies for Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 16 January 2024)


18 January 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #733

Russia and Niger strengthen bilateral military cooperation

Rwanda Bill passed in House of Commons with 320 to 276 vote ; Russia-North Korea boosts ties as top diplomats meet, discuss US escalating tensions

Photo : Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation


In Brief
By Alka Bala

BELARUS
Tinder is to leave the Belarusian market on 15 February
On 17 January, according to Politico, Tinder, the dating app company, reported its intentions to exit Belarus possibly over its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Match Group, Tinder’s parent company has not disclosed the exact reason for its pullback from the country. Previously in July 2023, it exited the Russian Market stating its commitment to human rights, however, there were reports in November 2022 where Tinder was used to identify critics of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. The app users will be able to match and chat with other users until February 15, according to the company press release. (Sejla Ahmatovic, “Tinder swipes left on Belarus after Valentine’s Day,” Politico, 17 January 2024)
 
ITALY 
Influencers to be bound by stricter rules of Italian Communication Authority
On 18 January, BBC reported that Italian social media creators would have to follow the same rules as traditional media outlets as they would come under the supervision of the Italian Communications Authority. The influencers will strictly have to label brand collaborations, and commercial interests, present disclaimers for advertisements and are liable to pay hefty fines if they fail to do so. Initially, the rule shall apply to influencers that have more than a million followers, but “soon other influencers will also have to adapt to them”, said Giacomo Lasorella, head of the Italian Communications Authority (AGCOM). ( “Italian influencers to be bound by tighter rules," BBC, 18 January 2024)
 
THE NETHERLANDS 
Targets to cut obesity lowered marking failure of 2018 National Prevention Plan
On 17 January, Politico reported plans of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to lower its targets for tackling obesity. The target outlined in the 2018 plan was to lower obesity to 38 per cent among adults and 9 per cent among children, however, these targets have now been reduced to 55 per cent for adults and 14 per cent for children. Other measures to introduce a sugar tax, reduction in VAT for fruits and vegetables and banning and phasing out food advertising were not implemented. Concerns among Dutch NGO Foodwatch are high as more than half of the adult population is obese in the Netherlands, and the involvement of fast-food companies in policy-making for public health will not help in achieving targets. (Alessandro Ford, “Lower obesity in the Netherlands? Fat chance, says government,” Politico, 17 January 2024)
 
RUSSIA
3000 protestors gathered in support of a jailed environmentalist 
On 18 January, Deutsche Welle reported a rare protest in the remote Bashkortostan region against the prison sentence of local environmentalist Fail Alsynov. He had campaigned in support of protecting the Bashkir language but was labelled as “inciting hatred” by the authorities. Broadly, the protest is also an expression of dissatisfaction against their government, as they demanded the resignation of the Bashkir Prime Minister. The police had used tear gas and batons against the protestors who had gathered in sub-zero temperatures, -20 Celsius. (“Russian police crack down on rare protest in remote region,” Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2024)
 
THE UK
Rwanda Bill passed in House of Commons with 320 to 276 vote
On 18 January, Deutsche Welle reported lawmakers voted in favour of the much-debated Rwanda Migrant Bill in the House of Commons. The bill was positioned as a contentious immigration policy as it planned to send Asylum seekers arriving in England to Rwanda, as illegal and legal migration increased in the UK. As part of Rishi Sunak, UK's Prime Minister “Stop the Boats” campaign, the bill was widely debated as there were concerns about the safety of asylum seekers in Rwanda and whether this bill would violate international humanitarian law. The motion to tighten the bill was quashed by the government and revealed a conflict of opinion among the Tory MPs. As one-fifth of the Conservatives backed in favour of the Bill, two party members, including deputy chairman Lee Anderson resigned in protest. (“UK: House of Commons passes Rwanda migrant bill”, Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2024) 
 
INTERNATIONAL
Russia and Niger strengthen bilateral military cooperation
On 17 January, according to RT, Russia and Niger have agreed to increase military cooperation and military-technical cooperation to deal with insecurity in the Sahel region. The statement from the Russian Defence Ministry came after talks between Nigerien defence chief Salifou Modi and his Russian counterparts, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Alexander Fomin. Niger’s government post-coup is aiming to strengthen ties with Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Iran to collaborate in areas such as defence, agriculture, energy, healthcare and crude oil. The new government has shown signs of cutting ties with its former Western partners as they terminated all military treaties with its former colonial power, France. (“Russia strikes African military cooperation agreement”, RT, 17 January 2024)
 
Russia-North Korea boosts ties as top diplomats meet, discuss US escalating tensions
 On 17 January, RT reported talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, aimed at strengthening bilateral ties, “ensuring peace and stability in Northeast Asia” and boosting cooperation in areas of science, culture and trade. Choe’s visit was preceded by the North Korean leader’s visit to the Kremlin in September 2023. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, stated Moscow’s stance on the US and its Asian satellites trying to destabilise the region, causing an escalation in tensions between North and South Korea, as the latter conducted joint military drills with the US throughout 2023. (“US policy on North Korea destabilizing region – Lavrov”, RT, 16 January 2024, “Putin meets with North Korean foreign minister”, RT, 17 January 2024)


17 January 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #732

Switzerland and China agree to bolster free trade

Macron announces key reforms; New education minister criticised over comments about public schools in France

Photo : Peter Klaunzer/REUTERS


Europe in Brief
By Rosemary Kurian

FRANCE
Macron announces key reforms 
On 16 January, Le Monde reported on a rare press conference hosted by Emmanuel Macron, the French President, in the Elysée Palace, outlining his vision for reforms in his last term in office, after a cabinet reshuffle. Macron told the press that he would introduce uniforms in schools on an experiment-basis, make learning of "La Marseillaise," the French national anthem compulsory, and ensure drama classes for all students to make them confident public speakers well versed with key texts. He further planned to regulate children’s screen time for the better use of technology. Macron aims to make the French borders more controlled and crack down on drugs and radical Islam in French streets. Internationally, Macron promised continued support to Ukraine and stated that his decision to join the US alliance against the Houthis in Yemen was to prevent a regional escalation. Macron has turned towards a revitalised last term since the appointment of Gabriel Attal, his new Prime Minister, amid losing support in the country and the Parliament. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right opposition party Rassemblement National (RN), called his press conference “interminable chatter”. (“Macron outlines term's next reforms,” Le Monde, 16 January 2024)

Lafarge company to be probed for complicity to crimes in Syria
On 16 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the French court’s ruling that cement company Lafarge could be held accountable for complicity to crimes against humanity in Syria during the civil war. The Court of Cassation upheld that given Lafarge paid EUR 13 million to possibly elements like the Islamic State to keep its factory in Syria running during the war, they would be held accountable. Lafarge has already pleaded guilty in the US for paying millions to both Islamic State and the Nusra Front. An appeal that was filed by Lafarge’s Swiss parent company Holcim was thrown out by the court, upholding a lower court’s decision. The lawyer representing Sherpa, a French campaign group, called the act a “partial victory”, since they were one step closer to trying the company for crimes against humanity. On accusations that the company put its labour at risk in Syria, the court denied it, given French labour laws do not apply abroad. (“French court rules Lafarge can be probed over Syria crimes,” Deutsche Welle, 16 January 2024)

New education minister criticised over comments about public schools
On 16 January, Politico reported on criticisms faced by Amélie Oudéa-Castéra, the newly appointed French education minister, over her lack of respect for the French public schooling system. Oudéa-Castéra came under fire after criticism of her choice to send her children to elitist private schools. Her children go to a Catholic private school in Paris known for its traditional religious approach, a decision she blamed on the absenteeism of her son’s previous public school teacher. She later apologised but has been met with increasing calls to resign from office by unionists and parents’ representatives of the public school system, who say she highlights the failure of President Macron’s administration over the state of the schools. Oudéa-Castéra was earlier under controversy during her term as sports minister for accusations against the British team Liverpool FC during the UEFA Champions League in 2022. (Victor Goury-Laffont, “Macron’s new education minister under fire over kids’ private education,” Politico, 16 January 2024)

LUXEMBOURG

Frieden wishes to mend ties with Hungary’s Orbán
On 16 January, Politico reported on Luc Frieden, the new Luxembourgian Prime Minister’s plan to ‘build bridges’ between the EU and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán’s government has consistently expressed its criticism of the EU through its pro-Russia stance, disruption of Ukraine’s membership into the EU and EU policies on migration. Orbán had also vetoed an aid package worth EUR 50 billion for Ukraine from the EU. However, Frieden believes that Orbán is pro-European and wants his counterparts in the EU to make an effort to understand him better and be more open to different and opposing views, which could enable them to achieve a common goal. While Frieden supported Orbán, he also expected a Hungarian effort to mend its relationship with the EU. Hungary is believed to be the latest victim of democratic backsliding, leading to the freezing of EUR 11.7 billion of earmarked EU funds. (Nicolas Camut and Barbara Moens, “Luxembourg’s new PM wants to be the EU’s Orbán whisperer,” Politico, 16 January 2024)

THE UK

Politico reports Truss’s lobby over export of security goods to China
On 15 January, Politico reported on a private letter written by former Prime Minister Liz Truss addressed to Kemi Badenoch, the British Business and Trade Secretary, lobbying for the sale of military equipment to China on behalf of Richmond Defence Systems, a firm in her constituency of Norfolk. British security officials had earlier blocked a licence to Richmond Defence Systems from exporting landmine disposal equipment to China. The security rules were made for the safety of the British foreign policy and that of its ally Taiwan. Truss had in 2023 made a speech in Taiwan urging Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to declare China as a “threat” to the security of Taiwan, also calling for provision of more arms to Taiwan for its self-defence. Truss’ political career including her brief time at 10 Downing Street was built on a harsh anti-China policy, which the letter correspondence has brought into question. Her spokesperson justified the act as concern for her constituents. (Graham Lanktree, “Liz Truss secretly lobbied ministers to ‘expedite’ defense exports to China,” Politico, 15 January 2024)

INTERNATIONAL

Switzerland and China agree to bolster free trade
On 15 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the joint declaration made between Viola Amherd, the Swiss President, and Li Qiang, the Chinese Premier, on the sidelines of the annual meeting in Davos. Both parties agreed to expand the existing free trade agreement, which had stalled post concerns over human rights in China, and improve bilateral relations. Switzerland had in 2013 become the first country in continental Europe to have signed a free trade deal with China. Talks between the foreign ministries of both countries towards a stronger free trade agreement are expected to follow. China has further agreed to provide visa-free entry to Swiss citizens in China, which Switzerland has agreed to reciprocate. China is Switzerland’s third largest trading partner. (“China, Switzerland agree to strengthen trade ties,” Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)

Global divisions displayed through diverse speeches by China and EU
On 16 January, Politico reported on the open cracks in global politics as Li Qiang, the Chinese Premier, and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, gave their speeches at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos. Li Qiang offered a speech of a confident China that welcomed foreign investments with “open arms” in an opportune economy that has recently seen a decline and loss of confidence. He emphasised on increased coordination between China and the west in technology, green goals and the free market while calling the US a “capricious” force in global politics. Von der Leyen emphasised on the need for democracy and freedom in a Europe that was portrayed as the global leader to woo investors. She urged for a renewed link between the public and private sector in the face of great divide and confrontation in global politics. This year’s rendezvous at Davos proved to be excessively portraying a divided world, with a small US delegation leaving the Swiss Alps unusually early. (Claudia Chiappa and Jamil Anderlini, “China vs. EU in Davos: Dueling speeches display global divisions,” Politico, 16 January 2024)


16 January 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #731

Poland’s ambitious climate action plans ripple through the EU

Nicholas Schmit as the lead Socialists’ candidate for the EU elections; The UK Met Office issues snow warnings; Northern Ireland to witness mass union strikes

Photo : RADEK PIETRUSZKA/EPA


Europe in Brief
By Meenakshi R, Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

THE UK
Budget cuts "torpedo" Scottish climate change targets
On 15 January, the BBC reported on the failure of the Scottish government to achieve its woodland cover targets due to a budget cut by the British government. Afforestation in 14,000 hectares of land would be cut down to 9,000 hectares. Scotland's Forestry Grant Scheme supporting the creation of woodlands has been cut down by 41 per cent, according to forestry groups Woodland Trust Scotland and Confor. Stuart Goodal, the CEO of Confor, noted that the Scottish government's ambitious efforts had been falling short over the last five years, but the new budget cuts could widen the gap. This could affect Scotland's aim of net zero emissions by 2045. Mairi Gougeon, the Scottish Rural Affairs Secretary, stated that the government will try to maximise its efforts at creating woodlands, which, despite the cuts, would be more than the rest of the UK's forest cover. (Kevin Keane, “Climate change target warning over forestry cuts”, the BBC, 15 January 2024)
 
Heavy snow alert disrupts travel in Scotland
On 16 January, the BBC reported on new travel warnings released by Scotland's transport services as temperatures drop to minus four degrees Celcius. Public transport agencies have warned of difficult driving conditions with 20 centimetres snow above the surface. The transport resilience team announced that they would be managing resources based on the situation. Transport Scotland will minimise the effects of any disruptions that may befall the transport sector. Drivers have been urged to stay careful and travellers to postpone their plans due to a yellow alert for ice and snow throughout Scotland. Railway passengers were urged to check the ScotRail website to know the status of trains. As schools closed down due to extreme weather conditions, the situation is expected to persist until Thursday. (“Travel warning as snow and ice alert extended to all of Scotland”, the BBC, 16 January 2024)
 

Northern Ireland to witness mass union strikes
On 16 January, the BBC reported on the upcoming union strikes by members from 15 unions due to a prolonged lack of pay rise amid heightened inflation. Many including nurses, bus drivers, teachers and civil servants will join the strike on 18 January due to significant pay rise in the rest of the UK. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland Secretary, allocates the budget to Northern Ireland, which the employers suggest is not enough to match up to workers' demands. The strike is potentially the biggest in Northern Ireland since the Ulster Workers' Council strike of 1974. Transportation services and schools are expected to be affected on Thursday, as will be health services. Several hope that a settlement with the DUP could potentially dilute the protests. (Finn Purdy, “'Who is going on strike on Thursday?' And other questions answered,” the BBC, 16 January 2024)

Impending job losses as Welsh Gwynedd Shipping Company ceases operations
On 15 January, BNN Breaking reported the closure of Holyhead-based Gwynedd Shipping Company engaged in services of shipping, transport, warehousing, and customs clearance leaving the local community worried about the job losses. An Anglesey Council spokesperson has stated the County Council’s commitment to alleviate the effects of closure and provide opportunities to the displaced while working in close collaboration with the Welsh government and other partners. The company’s closure directly impacts the livelihood of the employed 50 staff and spreads a broader fear of potential job loss. (Saboor Bayat, “Gwynedd Shipping Ceases Operations: A Blow to North Wales’ Shipping Industry,” BBN Breaking, 15 January 2024, “Gwynedd Shipping: Reports Welsh logistics company has shut,” BBC, 16 January 2024)
 
Rwanda Bill likely to be shot down; faces opposition from both sides
On 16 January, BBC reported the decision of more than 60 Tory MPs to toughen up the Rwanda Bill through amendments to ensure that it’s watertight as the discussion resumes in the House of Commons today. The legislation faces opposition from both sides of the Conservative Party, as the right feels it would not prevent legal challenges while the One Nation Party group feels any amendments to the bill would risk breaking international law. However, the decision of Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, two Deputy Conservative chairmen, to vote for the amendments is viewed as a rift within the Conservative MPs. (Kate Whannel, “Tory deputy chairmen back move to 'beef up' Rwanda bill,” BBC, 16 January 2024) 

Government designates Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organization
On 16 January, James Cleverly, the UK Home Secretary declared that Hizb ut-Tahrir will be designated as a terrorist group due to the organisation's support for terrorism on the deadly Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023. They characterised the organisation as antisemitic and underlined that the action was intended to stop it from operating. The plan which is yet to be approved by members of the parliament, a vote is anticipated this week, is expected to come into effect on 19 January. Approved individuals who are supporters or members of Hizb ut-Tahrir may face criminal charges under the UK Terrorism Act, which carries a maximum term of 14 years in prison and a fine of up to GBP 5,000. The group has previously been outlawed in a number of other nations, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, and Germany. ("UK to label Hamas-backing Islamist group as a terrorist organization," Politico, 16 January 2024)

Met Office issues snow warnings
On 16 January, the BBC reported of the Met Office’s yellow warnings over the Northern Ireland, Scotland, and north Norfolk due to Arctic winds bringing snow and freezing temperatures to the UK. Schools in northern Scotland closed due to heavy snowfall, and more snowfall is predicted in the affected districts. A severe weather alert was issued for northwest England by National Highways and drivers were advised to expect travel interruptions. Up to 15 centimetres of snow was predicted to fall in certain places, and temperatures below. ("UK weather: Cold blast brings snow to many parts of UK," BBC, 16 January 2024)

REGIONAL
Poland’s ambitious climate action plans ripple through the EU
On 15 January, Politico reported Poland’s increased efforts in tackling climate change, as confirmed through Urszula Zielińska, a senior official from Poland’s new government urged the EU to adopt the ambitious 90 per cent emission reduction targets by 2040. So far, Denmark, Poland and Bulgaria have rallied to the EU on the adoption of stricter targets, as it also faces prominent opposition to green legislations, as the EU’s Green Deal project garnered criticism from conservative politicians. 2040 targets are a middle ground between the 2030 goal of slashing 55 per cent emissions and 2050’s goal of reaching climate neutrality. However, a Commission assessment showed that the EU might only achieve the 51 per cent emissions target set for 2030, highlighting the need to ramp up its efforts. (Zia Weise, “Poland’s climate surprise pressures EU to pitch ambitious 2040 target,” Politico, 15 January 2024)
 
Nicholas Schmit as the lead Socialists’ candidate for the EU elections
On 15 January, Politico reported that Nicolas Schmit, the EU commissioner for jobs and social rights would be the front-runner from European Socialists, who would go against Ursula von der Leyen if she agrees to run for another term. Schmit enjoys support from Germany’s Social Democratic Party and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). In the absence of strong centre-left candidates who enjoy popularity throughout Europe and can withstand the politics outside, Schmit positions himself as an experienced candidate both in the national politics of Luxembourg and European politics. (Barbara Moens, Eddy Eax and Jacopo Barigazzi, “Nicolas who? Socialists close in on challenger to take on Ursula von der Leyen,” Politico, 15 January 2024)

INTERNATIONAL
“Limited, single action taken in self-defence” says Sunak against Houthis
On 16 January, in response to reports of more attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea, Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister withheld military actions in response to the new attacks, while also reiterating the nation’s commitment to protect its security and interests when required. Backed by opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer US-UK strikes as “targeted action” and highlighted that escalation in the Middle East should be avoided. Sunak outlined the risks of inaction “…weakening of security and damage to freedom of navigation and the global economy” to justify the strikes. (Becky Morton, “Rishi Sunak: Strikes on Houthis intended as 'limited, single action',” BBC, 16 January 2024)

The WEF continues to be the perfect networking opportunity 
On 15 January, the Financial Times in an opinion juxtaposed the relevance of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the changing world order with its continued reverence. Attendants of Davos were described by Samuel Huntington, a revered political scientist, as those with fluid national borders and no national loyalty, a notion that has changed in recent years. The WEF’s 54th annual summit will be attended by 300 public figures and 1,600 leaders in business in an attempt to discuss the most pressing economic, political and social concerns globally. The raison d’etre of Davos expanded from Klaus Schwab, the founder’s 1971 dream of an avenue to share management practices among leading businesspersons. Davos offers the golden opportunity to network with industry experts. Therefore, despite exorbitant attendance expenses, membership costs (starting at EUR 50,000) and vague themes, thousands are willing to attend the WEF every year. The scale and consistency of the opportunity that the festivities offer journalists, politicians and business leaders at Davos is unmatched, and as the Financial Times points out, becomes cause for regular attendance due to the “simple fear of missing out.” (“Is Davos still worthwhile?,” The Financial Times, 15 January 2024) 


15 January 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #730

Volcano Erupts for second time forcing evacuation in Iceland

Putin says Asia to be Russia’s far east key; Five migrants reported dead while crossing the English Channel; EU waste export ban threatens collapse of recycling industry

Photo : Snorri Thor/NurPhoto/picture alliance


Europe in Brief
By Meenakshi R, Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

DENMARK
Frederik X crowned as the new king of Denmark
On 15 January, after 52 years as Denmark’s queen, Queen Margrethe II stepped down to King Frederik X, was crowned marking the start of a new era for the Danish monarchy. Frederik X, well-known for his laid-back personality and widespread popularity offers a contemporary touch while respecting his mother's legacy. ("Denmark: New King Frederik X takes throne from Margarethe II," Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)

FRANCE 
Attal brings hopes to re-energise the government 
On 13 January, the BBC reported on the hopes of French citizens on Gabriel Attal youngest French Prime Minister to revive Macron’s government and help restart his second term mandate. Perceived by positive public opinion as youthful, dynamic and full of ideas, Attal’s ability to deal with the right-wing will help the moderate government push reforms in the parliament, since Emmanuel Macron, France’s President doesn't hold a majority in the National Assembly. Macron’s Renaissance Party believes that Attal can help counter the increasing right-wing wave present in Europe and reduce the influence of far-right parties like the National Rally. However, the National Rally does not view Attal as a threat and awaits the European Parliament election results to test his influence. (Andrew Harding, “Gabriel Attal: Youngest French PM hopes to revive Macron's government,” BBC, 13 January 2024)
 

Draft ‘Energy Sovereignty” law draws flak; sceptics on emphasis on nuclear power
On 12 January, Euractiv reported on the arguments initiated by the draft ‘Energy Sovereignty’ law, presented on 08 January by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, French Energy Transition Minister. The law highlights France’s energy concerns and priorities for 2030, however, fails to provide quantified targets for renewable energy contradicting the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive which requires bringing the blocs’ final consumption to 42.5 per cent collective share of renewables. Ministry emphasised maintaining the installed capacity of the energy programme at 63GW, generated majorly through nuclear and hydroelectric power, meanwhile renewable energies will help in completing the “last mile”, as a simple backup to nuclear power. Pannier-Runacher stated a reduction in the share of nuclear power, as old reactors would be shut down complemented with an increase in electricity production to decarbonise the economy. The law will be debated in the National Assembly in late January or early February. (Paul Messad,  “France’s ‘last mile’ strategy for renewables under fire from all sides,” Euractiv, 12 January 2024)

GERMANY
Citizens’ Council gives nine recommendations on healthier society
On 15 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the newly formed Citizens’ Council’s suggestions to improve public health in Germany, which were presented to Bärbel Bas, the President of the German Parliament Bundestag, on the theme of “Nutrition in Transition.” The key suggestion in a list of nine recommendations was free lunches to every student in German schools, the cost of which must be split between the state and local governments. The Council also suggested the labelling of food to inform consumers of their food choices, new food tax measures with 0 per cent sales tax on organic and about 19 per cent for sale of sugar and non-organic products. The Civil Council was made because of Germany’s attempt to increase civic dialogue in the democracy, choosing 160 citizens at random to come up with key democratic decisions. Bas has considered the suggestions and is due to present it to the Bundestag in late February as a report. (“Germany: Citizens' group backs national free-lunch program”, Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)
 

Hundreds rally against right-wing extremism; Scholz, Baerbock attend
On 14 January, Deutsche Welle reported on rallies taking place across Germany against right-wing extremism, including major events taking place in Berlin and Potsdam. Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor and Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Foreign Minister, joined the protests, extending their support for the motto “defend democracy.” The rallies erupted after Correctiv, an investigative journalism portal, released an expose on a secret meeting between far-right extremists including Martin Sellner, an Austrian neo-Nazi, and members of the party Alternative for Germany (AfG) in Potsdam, discussing remigration and forced deportation. Elections in Germany are yet to prove the rising popularity of the AfD, a eurosceptic, islamophobic and anti-immigration-based political party, which has gained key support from Eastern Germany especially in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. The EU elections this year will enable the party to show its strength, if any. (“Germany: Scholz, Baerbock attend 'defend democracy' rally,” Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2024)
 

2024 emerges as the year of protests of discontent
On 14 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the multiple protests that had taken over Germany, especially by farmers and train drivers’ unions, due to sudden changes in EU legislation with little time to adapt. Farmers in Germany started protesting due to subsidy cuts to adapt to a new carbon neutral policy, which has brought traffic to a standstill. Protesting unions have been supported by far-right political parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfG) feeding on populism. Farmers supported by right-wing extremist parties attacked a ferry that transported Robert Habeck, the German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister, a trend similar to protests targeting residences of officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. Support for parties in the fringes has been increasing due to the sudden phasing out of fossil fuels, tax increases, subsidy cuts and political disagreements in the coalition government, which could have significant outcomes in 2024. (Sabine Kinkartz, “Why Germany has gone into protest mode,” Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2024)

German authorities seek deportation of suspect of Cologne Cathedral attack
On 15 January, a 25-year-old Tajik national was being actively pursued by German authorities for removal after allegedly plotting a terror assault on Cologne Cathedral on new year's eve. The Dortmund District Court issued a removal warrant after the suspect and three other people were taken into custody on 31 December and then released. Notably, an Austrian arrest warrant is still pending for a 30-year-old Tajik suspect who was detained in Wesel and is currently being held in German custody. It was observed that the 25-year-old was connected to people who were detained in Vienna, indicating that he may be part of a small terror cell. Targeting crowds outside Cologne's cathedral with a car was the intended attack. The suspects were said to be part of the "Islamic State Khorasan" group (IS-K), which operates in central and south Asia. ("Germany seeks Cologne Cathedral attack suspect's deportation," Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024) 

HUNGARY
Chief economist expects GDP to exceed four per cent
On 11 January, Hungary Today reported the government’s commitment to exceed economic growth beyond four per cent in 2024, focusing on pillars of growth in a balanced manner. A solid increase in working capital and major investments seen in the establishment of car factors and battery plants will facilitate in momentum of investments and GDP. Gergely Suppan, Chief Economist at the Ministry of National Economy, highlighted the possible setbacks due to external price shocks, however, the current deflationary nature of commodity and energy prices depicts a positive future for the economy. Subsidised loan initiative programs such as the Széchenyi Recreation Card and the Baross Gábor Re-industrialization Loan Program will help in strengthening small and medium-sized enterprises and will increase domestic investment. (“Government to Focus On Fortifying the Pillars of Economic Growth,” Hungary Today, 11 January 2024)

Teachers' to receive pay rise after arrival of the EU funds
On 15 January, Hungary Today reported on impact on teachers after the crucial release of EUR 10 billion financial release from the EU. This guaranteed their long-awaited pay rise of 32.2 per cent. After initially connecting pay increases to EU subsidies, the government finally gave assurances about its commitment, announcing a two-phase rise to achieve 80 per cent of the average graduate income, with a 21 cent increase for 2024 and a 71.8 per cent increase by 2025. ("With Guarantees Received for the Arrival of EU Funds, Teachers’ Pay Rise May Commence," Hungary Today, 15 January 2024)

ICELAND
Volcano Erupts for second time forcing evacuation
On 14 January, the volcano in southwest Iceland erupted for the second time in less than a month, shooting lava into a fishing hamlet and lighting up the skies over the region. Just recently, in late December 2023, 3,800 inhabitants of Grindavik returned to their homes following forced evacuation due to a previous eruption. Although no lives were at risk this time, some infrastructure are at risk of damage. Since this eruption does not produce a lot of ash into the atmosphere, it is not anticipated to cause any problems for air traffic. On the Reykjanes Peninsula, a volcano has erupted five times since 2021 and this time the protective barriers meant to shield Grindavik from the lava have been breached. ("Iceland: Reykjanes volcano erupts for 2nd time in weeks," Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)

RUSSIA

Putin says Asia to be Russia’s far east key
On 15 January, Sputnik reported on Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President address on the Far East. He called it as a "golden gateway" to Asia, emphasising its importance in securing Russia's future and forming alliances with rapidly expanding Asian economies. He referred to the area as the "Arctic's sibling" in determining Russia's future, highlighting its size, wealth of resources, and logistical ability. Putin promised further development work, emphasising not only the extraction of resources but also technology cooperation and deeper commercial connections with Asian countries. ("Putin: Russia's Far East Region Important for Development of Nation's Ties With Asia," Sputnik, 15 January 2024)

THE UK
Five migrants reported dead while crossing the English Channel 
On 13 January, the BBC reported the arrival of the first batch of migrants picked up by the Border Force vessel in Dover, Kent County indicating a small boat crossing after the longest gap of 26 days seen in the past five years. The UK Home Office spokesperson stated their commitment to intercept vessels and crackdown on dangerous crossings, which although reduced crossings by 36 per cent last year, 2023 remained with the second highest year recording 29,437 crossings. On 14 January, Stars and Stripes reported the death of five Syrian migrants who suffered from the winter temperatures while crossing the English Channel from northern France. French rescue services assisted 30 migrants travelling in a capsized boat, and recovering them from freezing waters. Authorities have reported to increase in coastal surveillance as weather conditions in the channel have improved after the winter, increasing the chances of crossings. (Rosie Blunt, “First migrants of 2024 cross English Channel,” BBC, 13 January 2024; “5 migrants killed in another tragedy on perilous sea crossing from France to Britain,” Stars and Stripes, 14 January 2024)

REGIONAL
Talks over naval operations in Red Sea to re-establish security
On 12 January, Euractiv reported a scheduled discussion in the Political and Security Committee to take place on 16 January regarding a potential joint naval operation proposal by EU’s diplomatic service EEAS. The EU proposal aims to act from the “Red Sea to the Gulf,” while also struggling to balance deterrence and further escalation in the Middle East. Recognising the urgency that rerouting of ships from the Rea Sea would disrupt global supply chains, EU diplomats would at the earliest finalise plans by 22 January, and launch operation by February, either by joining the Operation Prosperity Guardian with the US-led coalition or join the French-led joint surveillance mission Agenor operation which covers the entire Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, parts of Arabian Sea,  and is conducted under the broader framework of European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz. (Alexandra Brzozowski, “EU mulls potential joint naval mission in Red Sea amid Houthi attacks,” Euractiv, 12 January 2024)

EU waste export ban threatens collapse of recycling industry
On 12 January, Euractiv reported on the threats facing the European recycling market following the EU’s announcement of a ban on the export of plastic waste both inside and outside of Europe. The Belgium-based industrial packaging recycling organisation Valipac has warned that without export of waste for recycling, EU countries will be forced to stock waste only to be burned eventually, due to lack of demand for recyclable plastics in the region. The key issue is insufficient capacity within Europe to recycle the stockpiled waste. Of the 100,000 tonnes of waste in the form of plastic collected in Belgium alone, 24,000 tonnes are exported outside the region. The EU prefers creating packaging from virgin plastic over use of recycled plastic and unless capacity to recycle isn’t increased, the EU recycling industry faces significant risk of collapse. (Frédéric Simon, “Recycling market in Europe faces ‘collapse’ after EU waste export ban,” Euractiv, 12 January 2024) 

INTERNATIONAL
US strikes in Yemen leave Spain, Italy and France concerned
On 13 January, Euractiv reported on the second American strike against Houthi rebels in Yemen soon after the success of a joint US-UK strike against Houthi targets inside Yemen. The second attack targeted a radar site, in an attempt to weaken their ability to target commercial vessels in the Red Sea, according to the US Central Command. The initial attacks targeted military airports near Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, a naval base near its Red Sea port and several military sites. The Houthis responded with a warning for revenge for the act of “terrorism” against them. The Red Sea attacks were a spillover of Israel’s war on Gaza, also causing soaring oil prices, and tensions mounted over whether the new strikes against Houthis would lead to regional escalation. Several European countries like the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark actively supported the allied strike in Yemen, while Italy, France and Spain remain on the fence over potential escalation of regional conflict in the Middle East. (“US strikes Yemen again while Italy, Spain, France sit on the fence,” Euractiv, 13 January 2024)


13 January 2024, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #729

Finland continues to shut its border with Russia over fear of hybrid operation

Tesla pauses berlin car production due to Red Sea shipping disruptions; NHS vital care under criticism in the UK

Photo : Silja Viitala / Yle


Europe in Brief
By Meenakshi R and Padmashree Anandhan

ESTONIA
Estonian teachers propose long term salary agreement
On 12 January, ERR reported on Kristina Kallas, Estonia's Education Minister efforts to initiate discussions with the government for a mandate to increase salary of the teachers and improve working conditions for the years 2025-2027. Although there is no proposed pay increase for 2024, the minister emphasised a significant 5.7 per cent raise for 2024. The Estonian Educational Personnel Union (EHL) announced an open-ended strike scheduled for 22 January, which has prompted Kallas to engage in negotiations with relevant stakeholders to devise a state budget strategy (RES). EHL strongly emphasizes the necessity of a collective agreement to prevent future conflicts and aims to bridge the salary gap between kindergarten teachers and those in general education. While the union is open to dialogue, they firmly insist on concrete actions from the government to address the concerns of teachers regarding their pay and working conditions. ("Kallas seeks government mandate for teachers' long-term salary agreement," ERR, 12 January 2024) 
 
FINLAND
Continues to shut its border with Russia over fear of hybrid operation
On 12 January, yle reported on Finland’s decision to maintain border closure with Russia. Mari Rantanen, Finland’s Interior Minister declared a four-week extension to the complete closure, which was initially imposed in December. The decision to extend the closure is based on the unchanged threat landscape and the paramount importance of national security. There are concerns that a Russian hybrid operation, facilitating the influx of asylum seekers to the border, thereby exacerbating tensions. Despite the occasional passage of a freight train, all eight checkpoints remain steadfast, leaving migrants stranded in the harsh Russian winter. Finnish authorities are now urgently seeking permanent solutions to resolve this frosty diplomatic standoff. ("Finland to keep Russian border shut until mid-February," yle, 12 January 2024)
 
GERMANY
Tesla pauses berlin car production due to Red Sea shipping disruptions
On 12 January, Deutsche Welle reported on stalling of the German production of Tesla for a duration of two weeks due to the impact of Red Sea attacks. The interference caused by Iranian-backed militants in shipping operations has severely affected supply chains, resulting in the temporary closure of Tesla's Berlin plant and causing delays in deliveries throughout Europe. This pause in production serves as a significant example of how regional conflicts can have far-reaching consequences on global trade. Companies like Tesla are now faced with the challenge of finding alternative, longer, and more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the unpredictable Suez Canal.("Red Sea attacks halt Tesla production at German plant," Deutsche Welle, 12 January  2024)

Chemical leak reported in Konstanz
On 12 January, a chemical leak was reported from a plant in Konstanz, southwestern Germany. In the incident, seven were hospitalised due to exposure from toxic fumes out of 25 who were reportedly suffering from respiratory tract irritation. According to the police spokesperson, employees of the company initially detected a corrosive gas from the fruit processing and nitric acid, detergent Horolith were the key leaked components. Following the leak, using a protective kit the container was moved out of the building to release the gas in larger atmosphere without causing further fire in the building. (“Germany: Several hospitalized in Konstanz chemical leak,” Deutsche Welle, 12 January 2024)
 
THE UK
NHS vital care under criticism
On 12 January, the BBC reported that the NHS is facing a critical situation. An alarming analysis has uncovered a concerning fact that important objectives related to A&E, cancer care, and planned surgeries have been consistently missed for a minimum of seven years throughout the UK. As a result, patients are left in a state of uncertainty for months, enduring the consequences of this systemic failure. Heartbreaking stories of late-stage cancer diagnoses and excruciating waits for necessary procedures have emerged. The NHS is on the verge of collapse due to understaffing, insufficient funding, and the backlog caused by the pandemic. Consequently, patients are the ones bearing the burden. While the Labour party boldly promises to meet crucial targets if elected, it is evident that the NHS requires immediate action rather than mere empty words. It is imperative to make sustained investments and implement significant reforms to ensure that the NHS can provide the vital care that patients desperately need and deserve. (The key NHS targets that have never been met," BBC, 12 January 2024)

TURKEY
Defence ministry claims attack on Syria and Iraq
On 13 January, Politico reported on Turkey’s airstrikes on Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq. The strike comes in response as a retaliation to the attack on its military bases in Iraq. In the airstrike, Turkey destroyed “29 bunkers, shelters, oil facilities in the Metina, Hakurk, Gara and Qandil regions in northern Iraq and northern Syria.” According to Turkey’s defence ministry, the  attacked sites had belonged to Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey considers both the groups as terrorist organisations and has carried out regular bombing in Syria and Iraq. Hakan Fidan, Turkish Foreign Minister said: “We will fight to the end against the PKK terrorist organization within and outside our borders.” 


11 January 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #727

De Croo under pressure to balance equation with China

Far-Right Party steps down after election loss in Denmark; German rail operator faces new strike action from labour union

Photo : Politico


Europe in Brief
By Meenakshi R

BELGIUM
De Croo under pressure to balance equation with China
On 10 January, Politico reported on Alexander De Croo, Belgium Prime Minister’s challenges ahead of his visit to China. This trip is considered significant due to strained trade relations, escalating tensions over Taiwan's presidential election. The EU currently grapples with a substantial trade deficit, De Croo's requires a delicate balancing act. While it seeks economic opportunities, it also aims for greater "reciprocity" and endeavours to reduce its reliance on China in sensitive sectors such as green technology. Belgium has come under scrutiny for potential Chinese influence in its political affairs, further intensifying the pressure on De Croo. His emphasis on green energy investment during the trip underscores the EU's careful approach of seeking cooperation while safeguarding its strategic interests. (Camille Gijs, "Belgian PM faces high-wire act in China as EU, Taiwan fears intrude," Politico, 10 January 2024)
 
BELGIUM
Belgium Avoids EU Blunder as Government Renews Central Bank Chief's Term
On 10 January, Politico reported on an intense political deadlock that poses risk to Belgium's EU Council presidency. The government announced its decision to extend Pierre Wunsch's tenure as the governor of the National Bank of Belgium. This timely resolution guarantees Wunsch's involvement in the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) meeting scheduled for 25 January. The previous delay was stemmed from disputes regarding other government appointments, raised concerns about the independence of the central bank and necessitated Wunsch to temporarily assume a leadership role. Now officially appointed for a second five-year term, the governor will continue to be an advocate for stricter monetary policies within the ECB council.("Belgian government breaks deadlock over renewal of central bank governor mandate," Politico, 10 January  2024)

DENMARK
Far-Right Party steps down after election loss
On 10 January, Politico reported on The New Right, a political party in Denmark known for its anti-Islam, anti-immigration, and anti-tax stance, decision to step down. Despite receiving 3.7 per cent of the vote in 2022, due to internal divisions within party, it lost support. This move created an opportunity for other right-wing parties, such as the Danish People's Party, to expand their influence and gain more support from the right-wing electorate. While the future political plans of Pernille Vermund, the founder of The New Right, remain uncertain, it is evident that the right-wing political landscape in Denmark is on the verge of a significant reshuffling. (Barbara Moens and Carlo Boffa, "Danish anti-Islam, anti-immigration, anti-tax party dissolves," Politico, 10 January 2024)
 
GERMANY
German rail operator faces new strike action from labour union
On 10 January, Deutsche Welle reported on German train travel is currently experiencing fresh turmoil due to the announcement of another strike by the GDL union (labour union). This strike is a result of an ongoing wage dispute with Deutsche Bahn. The union demands shorter working hours of 35 per week, against current 38 hours, without any effect on pay. Negotiations between the two parties have reached a deadlock. Passenger trains is expected to halt as a result of this strike till 12 January. The union claims that Deutsche Bahn has not made a serious offer since the Christmas break and is demanding improvements in working hours, pay EUR 555 per month with  inflation bonus, and an earlier agreement. Deutsche Bahn considers the strike to be "unnecessary and illegal" and is offering a wage increase and a longer contract term instead of reduced hours. It also seeks a court injunction to prevent the strike from taking place. Previous strikes have caused significant disruptions, highlighting the immense pressure faced by both sides. ("Deutsche Bahn: German rail union plans fresh strikes," Deutsche Welle, 10 January 2024)


10 January 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #726

Gabriel Attal appointed as France's new Prime Minister

Government passes controversial bill allowing deep sea mining; Three-fold rise reported in asylum-seeking minors in the Netherlands

Photo : EFE/EPA/YOAN VALAT


Europe in Brief
By Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

ESTONIA
State budget deficit reaches three per cent of GDP
On 09 January, ERR News reported on increase in the state budget deficit in December 2023 to three per cent of the GDP which is an unexpected rise. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Finance noted that the deficit had reached 1.5 per cent as of October, followed by 2 percent in November. Due to alcohol excise duties due for implementation from 01 January 2024, the country saw excessive stockpiling in the last couple of months of 2023. Due to late-year forecasts and budgetary additions in the last month, the deficit stood at an unpredicted rate. (“Estonia's 2023 state budget deficit estimated at 3 percent of GDP”, ERR News, 09 January, 2024)
 
FRANCE

Gabriel Attal appointed as France's new Prime Minister 
On 09 January, Deutsche Welle reported that Emmanuel Macron, the French President, appointed Gabriel Attal as his new Prime Minister, after the resignation of former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was announced. Attal became the youngest Prime Minister in French history at age 34, also setting new standards as the country’s first openly gay head of government. Attal’s popularity rose, based on opinion polls, when he gained attention as the government’s spokesperson during the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, Attal was appointed as the Education Minister under which capacity he banned the use of the abaya, a Muslim dress, in state schools, which was lauded by conservatives that enabled him to be on their favourable opinion, despite being a liberal himself. 
  
Attal’s political career is known to be incredibly rapid and unstoppable, like his leader Macron’s. He became the secretary of state at the education ministry at age 29, making him the youngest member of the modern French Republic. His later posts include head of LREM, government spokesperson, public accounts minister, followed by education minister. Under his new capacity as Prime Minister, a cabinet reshuffle is expected in the LREM’s favour against the rapid rise of the far right leader Marine Le Pen ahead of the European Parliament’s elections. After several controversies 2023 over unfavourable pension laws, controversial immigration legislation as well as a loss of overall majority in parliamentary elections, Macron wishes to create an enhanced image of the government before his term ends and ahead of the Olympics and Paralympics hosted in Paris 2024.

Originally a supporter of the Socialist Party given his left-wing background, Attal joined Macron’s centrist political party ‘En Marche’ (currently La République En Marche) during its foundation in 2016, and has been identified as a close ally of the President. He is known to have had a privileged background as the son of a Tunisian Jewish lawyer and film producer in France. He was educated in the high profile private school ‘École Alsacienne,’ followed by a Master’s in Public Affairs at the prestigious Sciences Po. His youth was distinguished due to his communication skills and passionate approach to public speaking about any issue. His skills with the public in tackling his challenges verbally earned him the nickname ‘Word Sniper,’ (“Macron names Gabriel Attal as France's new prime minister”, Deutsche Welle, 09 January, 2024; Kim Willsher, “Who is Gabriel Attal, the French PM who climbed the ranks in record time?The Guardian, 09 January, 2024)

Borne resigns amid political tensions
On 08 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the resignation of Elisabeth Borne, the French Prime Minister, amid an expected cabinet reshuffle by Emmanuel Macron, the French President. Borne stated the immediate need to push necessary reforms as the cause of her resignation. Tensions arose in the French government after the introduction of contentious immigration laws in the French National Assembly, which would allow the government to deport some foreign nationals. She has also faced criticism for pushing unpopular pension reforms past the National Assembly. In the French presidential system, the responsibility of daily administration falls on the Prime Minister. Macron appointed Gabriel Attal as the new Prime Minister, the youngest to take office and the first openly gay one. (“French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne resigns”, Deutsche Welle, 08 January, 2024)
 
GERMANY 

German Farmers block roads protesting subsidy cuts
On 08 January, BBC reported on farmer protests in Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony and Bavaria calling to scrap all plans for cutting subsidies. The cut was imposed in response to a budgetary crisis. Olaf Scholz's government in Berlin faces a challenging start to the year amid predictions of sluggish economic growth for Germany. The arrival of tractors in central Berlin, accompanies concerns over political radicalization, drew widespread condemnation. In response to the protests Nancy Faeser, Germany’s Interior Minister  warned over consequences of “anger disagreement” due to stopping people from going for work. Despite government’s efforts to reduce the farmer’s anger by reversing its plan to abolish “preferential treatment in vehicle tax,” the protests seem to continue. (Jessica Parker, “German farmers blockade Berlin with tractors in subsidy row,” BBC, 08 January 2024)
 
LATVIA

NATO airspace policing duties to be hosted in Latvian air space
On 09 January, LSM reported on takeover of Latvia of the Baltic airspace policing mission under NATO as Estonia’s Air Force Base Ämari is under repair. NATO patrols have been performed in the region since the Baltic states joined in 2004, first in Šiauliai airbase in Lithuania and then including Estonia’s Ämari on a rotational basis. German armed forces will arrive in Latvia for test flights following which the National Armed Forces Aviation Base in Lielvārde will take over from 01 March. NATO presence has increased in the Baltic due to the threats associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. (“Latvia gradually takes over Baltic air police hosting duties,” LSM, 09 January, 2024)
 
NORWAY

Government passes controversial bill allowing deep sea mining
On 09 January, the BBC reported on the Norwegian government’s decision to allow deep sea diving, which could lead to catastrophic outcomes for marine life. By doing so, Norway became the first country enabling the action in order to extract minerals including lithium, scandium and cobalt– key to green technologies. The government stated that it would proceed cautiously especially while issuing licences, and assured that mining activities would assume only after further studies and exploration with the aid of private players, who can now bid for around 280,000 square kilometeres of national waters. The government has specified that opening up didn’t imply mining. Marine biologists have expressed their concern on the detrimental effects on marine life. The UN-based International Seabed Authority (ISA) is set to finalise rules on deep sea mining in 2024. (Esme Stallard, “Deep-sea mining: Norway approves controversial practice,” BBC, 09 January, 2024)
 
POLAND 

Ex-ministers arrested over abuse of power
On 10 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the arrest of two former ministers belonging to the Law and Justice Party (PiS), convicted of abuse of power. The ministers allegedly took refuge in the Presidential Palace with the support of Andrzej Duda, the Polish President belonging to the PiS. Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, earlier accused Duda for protecting the ministers and obstructing justice. The Presidential pardon that was granted to them in 2015 by Duda was overturned by Poland’s Supreme Court. Supporters of the PiS have, however, condemned the arrest. (“Polish police arrest ex-ministers at presidential palace,” Deutsche Welle, 10 January, 2024)
 
SWEDEN

NATO armed troops from Sweden to be sent to Latvia in 202
On 08 January, LSM reported on the addition of Swedish troops into a Canada-led NATO’s enhanced forward presence battle group based in Latvia. Sweden is set to become the 32nd member of NATO once Hungary and Turkey agree to its membership. Sweden is set to send a battalion of 800 soldiers with armoured vehicles, combat cars and potentially ‘Leopard’ tanks to Latvia in 2025 in order to ensure NATO’s presence in the region. (“Sweden to send NATO troops to Latvia in 2025,” LSM, 09 January, 2024)
 
SWITZERLAND

Swiss Food Bank rescues 6,500 tons worth of “waste” food
On 08 January, the Swiss Food Bank reported on a 400-ton increase in surplus food products rescued in 2023 compared to 2022, with 25 tonnes of food being saved daily, reducing waste and producing 18.6 million meals for people in need. The expansion was credited to more retail stores in central and northern Switzerland, an improved partnership with Migros Aare. The foundation Migros Aare observed that there was a rise in poverty due to “violence, natural disasters, and electricity shortage” resulting in increased demand for food. Helping thousands through the efforts, the Swiss Food Bank redistributes leftover goods from large Swiss distributors to approximately 500 social institutions, such as soup kitchens and homeless shelters. (“Thousands of tons of Swiss ‘waste’ alleviates poverty,” swissinfo, 08 January 2024)
 
THE NETHERLANDS

Three-fold rise reported in asylum-seeking minors
On 09 January, NL Times reported on the surge in unaccompanied child asylum applications in the Netherlands from 2,191 in 2021 to about 6,000 in 2023. Immigration and Nationalisation Service (IND) authorities expressed concern over a trend where families send children first, exploiting perceived advantages in family reunification procedures. Ruben Brekelmans, the Netherlands People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) parliamentarian emphasised stricter Dutch policies, border controls, and detentions and cited sustainability and fairness concerns. While the European asylum rules detains the adult asylum seekers to make assessment, this is impermissible in case of Children. The Rutte IV Cabinet in an attempt to tighten family reunification rules nationally, failed. This leaves the task to the incoming government. (“Sharp increase in unaccompanied children applying for asylum in the Netherlands”, NL Times, 09 January 2024)
 
THE UK

Dilemmas ahead for Sunak as he gets ready for 2024 elections
On 08 January, in an opinion published in Politico highlights the seven ‘tripwires’ ahead of the 2024 elections. The challenges are regarding the timing of the call for polls, where a vote in the latter half of 2024, would allow for the economy to produce good results. Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister faces electoral challenges with by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, risking a Tory majority amid concerns of a potential wipeout in the upcoming general election. Potential leadership contenders, including Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, dissatisfied with Sunak's performance, may pose challenges for Sunak amid concerns about electoral setbacks and internal divisions within the Conservative Party. Sunak's plan to permanently deport asylum seekers to Rwanda faces legal and legislative challenges, creating internal divisions within the Conservative Party. Amid immigration and inflation concerns, Rishi Sunak faces challenges fulfilling his National Health Service waiting time reduction pledge, compounded by a junior doctors' walkout and ongoing public service strikes, including London's underground network. In anticipation of the upcoming budget, Jeremy Hunt, UK’s Chancellor contemplates tax cuts, including the possible elimination of inheritance tax, stirring debates within the Conservative Party. Ultimately, in the face of an 18-point polling gap, Rishi Sunak's ultimate test lies in the upcoming general election in 2024 against Labour Party's Keir Starmer. (Andrew McDonald, “7 tripwires for Rishi Sunak as 2024 fires up”, Politico, 08 January 2024)

REGIONAL

European liberals reject alliance with nationalists post EU-elections
On 09 January, Politico reported on Stéphane Séjourné, leader of the European Parliament’s liberals, rejection to collaborate with the nationalists if the June elections yielded a right-wing majority. He stressed the need to control European destiny, wary of far-right claims of chaos. Séjourné highlighted EU achievements in managing COVID-19 vaccine procurement, regulating social media, and establishing a unified migration system. While polls foresee a slim majority for the current coalition, Séjourné warned of an "ungovernable Europe" as right-wing factions gain momentum. He pledged not to align with the far-right or nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR), potentially impacting future parliamentary coalitions and progressive policymaking. ( Eddy Wax, “EU liberal leader rules out right-wing alliance post-EU election”, Politico, 09 January 2024)

Commissioner Breton proposed EU defense fund plan
On January 09, Politico reported Thierry Breton, the EU Internal Market Commissioner, vouched for a EUR 100 billion defense fund for the EU. This was aimed to boost joint weapons procurement, to enhance the EU's war preparedness. Presentation to the European Defence Investment Program (EDIP) is scheduled to take place on 27 February and he emphasised on domestic arms production. Breton, overseeing defense, envisions reaching the goal of one million artillery shells for Ukraine by spring. He asserts that the EU can match Russia's weapon production in 18-24 months, and insisted on considering it "extremely important" for the EU to have equivalent capabilities. ( Eddy Wax and Laura Kayali, “Breton aims for ‘huge’ €100B defense fund,” Politico, 09 January 2024)

Commission divided over full trade liberalisation with Ukraine
On 05 January, Politico reported on European Commission plan to propose the extension of temporary measures. It recommends the EU continue to waive import duties on Ukrainian goods until June 2025. Janusz Wojciechowski, EU Commissioner for Agriculture warns that measures may lead to a situation similar to the uncontrolled influx of agricultural products in 2022. This has impacted the eastern European countries (EU member states) with challenges faced by Poland’s agribusiness industries due to grain influx from Ukraine. He emphasised how duty-free imports undercut the domestic industries and such measures will result in adding Russia to drive Kyiv’s exports from African and Asian markets. However, the final decision will be taken by Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President and Valdis Dombrovskis, Trade Commissioner who support full liberalisation. (Bartozs Brzeziński, “Von der Leyen’s team split over free trade with Ukraine,” Politico, 05 January 2024) 
 

European Commission recommends stricter rules for well-being of pets
On 09 January, ERR News reported on the European Commission’s decision to introduce stricter laws governing the safety of dogs and cats, as 74 per cent of EU residents demand that they be better protected. Suggestions are made to include rules based on premises, feeding, socialising and healthcare. Breeding that might negatively impact the offspring and inbreeding is proposed to be prohibited, as is illegal trade of dogs and cats through stricter transportation rules. Dogs over the age of eight and cats over six must be bred only with the prior permission of the veterinarian, and all cat and dog breeders require licences. The suggested regulations are uniform within the EU, but states are at the liberty to impose tougher restrictions. Punishments are to be decided by individual member states and data be provided to the EU every three years. (“European Commission looking to introduce tougher rules for handling of pets”, ERR News, 09 January, 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

2023 sets record for highest global temperatures
On 09 January, Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms 2023 as the warmest year since 1880, surpassing the 2016 peak and posing a threat to the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius target.  The urgency for global leaders to adopt policies combating climate change, however, seems to be lagging as the 2023 elections in the Netherlands and Argentina saw right-wing populists opposing aggressive climate action, while the possibility of former President Trump's return raises concerns about the future of U.S. climate policies. The imminent risk of irreversible tipping points, such as the west Antarctic ice sheet collapse, underscores the urgency for proactive measures given the unpredictable and long-lasting impacts of climate change. Alex Ruane NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate impacts director said: “The climate system doesn’t care about politics.” (Zack Coleman, “It’s a scary time’ as world shatters temperature record,” Politico, 09 January 2024)


08 January 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #724

Heavy rains risk flooding and disrupt routine in Germany

Exploring the potential uncovering a new energy source in the Swiss Moors; Sunak defends Rwanda bill; Kosovo to allow Serbian license plates without covering national symbols

Photo : Rainer Droese/Localpic/IMAGO


Europe in Brief
By Meenakshi R, Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

AUSTRIA
Authorities release warrant for suspect in Cologne Cathedral attack
On 08 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Austria’s recent arrest warrant of a suspect assumed to be involved in the attack in Germany. The individual, a 30-year-old Tajik, is believed to be connected to IS-Khorasan and is suspected of planning an attack on Cologne Cathedral during Christmas. Currently held under a European arrest warrant for additional interrogation, both Cologne Cathedral and Vienna's St. Stephen's Cathedral is under increased security protection. The authorities maintain a cautious approach and continue to investigate to find broader network. ("Cologne Cathedral attack: Austria issues warrant for suspect," Deutsche Welle, 08 January 2024) 
 
GERMANY

Heavy rains risk flooding and disrupt routine
On 06 January, Deutsche Welle reported on severe flooding in Germany caused by incessant rains, leading to disrupted transportation, shutting schools and crop failures. Several states in northern Germany were severely flooded, with dykes at the verge of collapse. The German Weather Service (DWD) announced a halt in rains and the arrival of frost, which could aid the dykes in holding back water. However, farmers find that flooding prevents the frost from reaching the soil. The leading cause of severe flooding in Lower Saxony and other northern parts is the disappearance of almost 70 per cent of wetlands, disrupting the normal course of water flow. The recent cutting of funding by the German coalition government for climate change events, which could affect any attempts at environmental protection and adaptation. (Alex Berry, “Germany's flooded farmers brace for winter frost,” Deutsche Welle, 06 January, 2024)
 

Tragic death in Mulheim migrant fatality occurs following altercation with police
On 08 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the unfolding of a tragic event in Germany that resulted in the loss of life of a 26-year-old Guinean man following a confrontation with police at an asylum centre. The man allegedly assaulted staff members and subsequently engaged in a scuffle with officers. Despite the use of a taser to calm, the man tragically lost consciousness and passed away in the hospital. The police who are currently investigating stated their attempt to use tasers twice without success. Two officers sustained injuries during the incident while the man's death has prompted concerns and demands for a thorough investigation from the Social Democrats. While the investigation progresses remain unanswered. ("Germany: Migrant dies in Mülheim after police scuffle," Deutsche Welle, 08 January 2024)
 
GREECE

Church opposes government-backed same-sex marriage bill
On 06 January, ekathimerini reported the government’s failed efforts to reconcile with the Church of Greece on same-sex marriage and parenthood, leading clerics to urge lawmakers against supporting the impending bill in Parliament. The Holy Synod's Christmas circular opposing the legislation is believed to be linked to the government's inclination to expedite the bill rather than delay it until after the European elections. The government advised a cautious approach, emphasizing its commitment to institutionalize same-sex marriage while attempting to minimize opposition. (“Tug-of-war with Church over same-sex marriage,” ekathimerini.com, 06 January 2024)

Rescue operation initiated for 21 migrants trapped near Rhodes
On 06 January, a shipwreck of a migrant boat carrying 21 individuals in the coast of Rhodes in Turkish waters was reported. Although the Turkish Coast Guard managed to rescue 18 people from the wreckage, an intense search operation was launched to locate the remaining three individuals. Greek patrol boats, a Super Puma helicopter, and a nearby vessel surveyed the northeastern waters. This shipwreck off Rhodes serves as a reminder of the ongoing migrant crisis. ("Shipwreck with 21 migrants off Rhodes, rescue operation under way," ekathimerini.com, 08 January 2024)

Green energy sector employment surges by 90 per cent in a decade
On 06 January, ekathimerini.com reported on the research conducted by Piraeus University Yannis Maniatis, a former Environment and Energy Minister and socialist MP revealed a shift in focus towards sustainable practices in the past decade from 2012-2022 and reflected growth in green energy sectors as photovoltaics, bioenergy, hydropower, wind energy. The findings by the World Economic Forum highlighted the positive impact of green transition and climate change adaptation with the rise in green energy professions. (“Green energy employment soars, research shows,” ekathimerini.com, 06 January 2023)
 
ROMANIA

The need for better education for the Roma people
On 07 January, Deutsche Welle in an opinion highlighted the importance of better educational opportunities to integrate the Roma people into the general population. Romania, as the country with the largest Roma population, has failed, much like an EU public policy, in enabling the inclusion of the Roma people. The cause is noted as systemic violence and racism, which fail to enable equal and efficient education opportunities to the minority community. Schools for the Roma people have less facilities, inexperienced teaching staff and low budgets compared to other schools, which, together with existing social and economic constraints, prevent any growth or “integration” within the community. Having observed the failure of state policy, the Roma Education Fund (REF), an NGO, has enacted a process aimed at counteracting the failures of existing policies towards the community in order to better integrate them into the mainstream. (Ciprian Necula, “My Europe: The Roma need genuine educational opportunities,” Deutsche Welle, 07 January, 2024)
 
SLOVENIA

Five trapped in a biodiversity hotspot due to high water levels
On 08 January, the Associated Press reported on strangling of a family of three along their two guides in Slovenia's Krizna Jama cave, a biodiversity hotspot after heavy flood of eight kilometres. The rescue effort involving over 35 specialised personnel were deployed while the subterranean waters are expected to reduce which can take more days. This incident highlights the risks inherent in guided cave tours. ("5 people are trapped in a cave in Slovenia after heavy rainfall causes water levels to rise," Associated Press, 08 January  2024)
 
SWITZERLAND

Exploring the potential uncovering a new energy source in the Swiss Moors
On 08 January, Swissinfo reported on Switzerland's energy narrative over peat.  It is derived from marshlands such as the "Great Marsh," flourished during the 19th century during industrialization and with the rise of steam power. Bern (a committee known as the ‘Holzkammer’ assumed responsibility for peat instead of wood in 1737) initiated a movement to supply hospitals and to vessels in Lake Thun vessels with the first batch of cuts of peat (underground wood). However, with high usage of coal, peat gained prominence leading to extractions from the moors. As a result, by the 20th century, peat consumption and land reclamation severely depleted the moors. This was stopped after adoption of the "Rothenturm initiative" in 1987 safeguarded the remaining 10 per cent of original moorland. This compelled Switzerland into seeking alternative sources of sustainable energy. ("The energy source from the Swiss moors," Swissinfo.ch, 08 January 2024)
 
THE UK

British Library to deplete 40 per cent reserves to recover from cyber attack
On 06 January, according to The Financial Times, the British Library plans to utilize 40 per cent of its reserves, approximately GBP 6-7 million, to recover from a crippling ransomware attack that left most of its services inaccessible and released 573 gigabytes of sensitive files, customer and personal data as the library refused to pay a GBP 600,000 ransom. Rhysida hacking group, tied to the Russian-affiliated Vice Society as per the US government, may keep the British Library's services offline for over a year, highlighting the need to defend critical national infrastructure. Despite ongoing communication with the government, the library has not formally requested funds from its sponsor Department for Culture, Media and Sport, and aims to use its funds to recover. (Rafe Uddin and Daniel Thomas, “British Library to burn through reserves to recover from cyber attack,” The Financial Times, 06 January 2024)
 

Sunak contemplates remedial action to support victims of post office scandal
On 08 January, the BBC reported on the government of UK proposal to exonerate postmasters convicted for faulty accounting, theft and fraud due to the faulty software. It proposed measures involve removing the Post Office's power for appeal. The Metropolitan Police which is currently investigating the “potential offenses” against the court of Justice announced 50 new victims. The government, police, and public inquiry are all committed to achieving closure and justice in this ongoing scandal. ("Post Office scandal: Rishi Sunak considers measures to clear all victims," BBC, 08 January 2024)
 

Sunak defends Rwanda bill
On 07 January, the BBC reported on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak denying doubting if the deterrence motive would work in the government’s Rwanda policy as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Sunak told BBC that scrutinising the policy was his occupation which didn’t amount to lack of belief in the effectiveness of the policy. The Rwanda policy aims at asylum seekers to the UK to be sent to Rwanda for processing and resettlement, which the government argues would deter people from entering the UK on small boats. The scheme, which was first announced during the leadership of Boris Johnson, was allegedly faced with a difference of opinion by then Chancellor Sunak. Sunak is currently pushing the Safety of Rwanda Bill to be passed in the UK, and refuses to be influenced by any order from the European Court of Human Rights blocking such deportation. (Kate Whannel and Laura Kuenssberg, “Rishi Sunak denies doubting Rwanda plan when chancellor,” BBC, 07 January 2024)
 
TURKEY

Government undertakes trial procedures against alleged spies for Israel
On 06 January, Le Monde reported on several detainees in Turkey awaiting trial for crimes of “political and military espionage” on behalf of Israel. Yilmaz Tunc, the Justice Minister, announced on social media that 26 individuals would be referred to court, 11 released under judicial control conditions and eight were to be deported. Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad had vowed to destroy Hamas officials outside of Palestinian territories, which was met with a serious warning from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President. Relations between Israel and Turkey soured again since the war in Gaza as Erdogan asked for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to be tried for “war crimes,” while Israel hunts for Hamas officials in Turkey, known to historically be a safe harbour for them. (“Turkish court jails 15 suspects ahead of trial for spying for Israel,” Le Monde, 06 January, 2024)
 
REGIONAL

Kosovo to allow Serbian license plates without covering national symbols
On 05 January, Daily Sabah reported Kosovo leadership’s decision “to remove the paper stickers or stickers regime for cars with Serbian license plates.” The move was described as "an expression of positive neighbourly relations" and was made following Serbia's complete acknowledgement of license plates from the Republic of Kosovo, according to an official statement. Petar Petkovic, the head of Serbia's office for Kosovo, stated that this initiative by Belgrade would grant "unrestricted movement for all vehicles" from Kosovo. The implementation of this decision was set to commence on 01 January. Although Serbia does not acknowledge Kosovo's independence, it has made multiple concessions, within the EU-led dialogue, to ease the lives of people travelling or residing at the borders. (AFP & Pristina, 
Kosovo follows Serbia's footsteps to end license plate issue,” Daily Sabah, 05 January 2024)
 

German-French energy cost cuts raise unequal competition concerns 
On 04 January, Politico reported concerns from smaller EU member states as they find themselves unable to compete with Germany’s tax breaks and subsidies and French pricing mechanisms in the energy industry. Their attempts to artificially cut domestic power prices independently, risk criticism from other nations that lack resources to support their industries which highlights potential harm to the single market and Europe's competitiveness against global rivals. Although Paris and Berlin assert compliance with EU rules in their bid to cut energy costs, their measures undermine the competitiveness of the EU’s single market as these measures also act as a large subsidy splurge, constituting 46 per cent of the total EU spending on energy price relief. (Victor Jack, Varg Folkman and Giovanna Coi, “Franco-German energy cash splash strains EU single market,” Politico, 04 January 2024)
 

Council Prez Michel to run in EU Parliament Elections, foresees leadership changes
On 07 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Charles Michel, European Council President declaration of his candidacy for the upcoming European Parliament elections in June. He indicated to step down from his current role if elected as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP). This move comes amid transformative times for the EU, marked by Russia's war on Ukraine. As Michel campaigns at the forefront of the liberal Belgian Reformist Movement (MR) party, his potential victory may lead to the search for new leaders in both the European Commission and the European Council, adding complexity to the process of succession and compromise among the EU leaders. (“EU's Charles Michel to quit Council presidency, run as MEP,” Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2024)

INTERNATIONAL

Blinken visit to Turkey and Greece in attempt for regional de-escalation 
On 06 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State week-long tour to the Middle East, in an attempt to prevent a regional escalation of the war in Gaza. Blinken met with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President to discuss de-escalation, Israel’s aggression, establishment of the Palestinian state and uninterrupted delivery of aid into Gaza. They separately discussed Turkish approval of Sweden’s membership in NATO. Blinken later met Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s Prime Minister to reiterate their alliance in containing the conflict. (“Blinken meets with Turkish, Greek leaders amid Gaza war,” Deutsche Welle, 06 January, 2024)


06 January 2024, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #723

Farmer protests in Germany and Norway's ban on diesel cruise ships

Inflation relaxed in Germany to 5.9 per cent; Food and energy prices remain high; Unemployment dips to record low since 2007 in Spain

Photo : REUTERS/Christian Mang


In Brief
By Meenakshi R, Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

ESTONIA
Government receives Piorun air-defence systems from Poland
On 06 January, ERR News reported on government of Estonia decision to enhance its airspace protection with the Polish Piorun air-defence systems. This EUR103 million agreement provides the Estonian Defence Forces with these highly effective short-range weapons significantly strengthening their capabilities. The Piorun system with its impressive eight-kilometre range and ability to operate day and night has already demonstrated its effectiveness in Poland and Ukraine. It is user-friendly and requires minimal training making it ideal for equipping a dedicated Estonian reservist unit. This ensures the swift deployment and safeguarding of critical infrastructure beyond the immediate frontline. This development represents a significant advancement for Estonian air defence and serves as a symbol of the strong security partnership between Poland and Estonia. The joint procurement emphasises both nations' commitment to regional stability in the face of evolving threats with a focus on fast delivery and technical compatibility. ("Estonia takes delivery of Polish Piorun air-defense systems," ERR, 06 January 2024)

GERMANY
Farmers stage protest against increase in tax
On 06 January, Politico reported on intense demonstrations in Germany against budget cuts. More than 100 protesters criticized Habeck for proposing increase in taxes on diesel fuel and other agricultural benefits. This highlights the escalating tensions over government's austerity measures which have sparked significant farmer protests in recent weeks. The government denounced the protest as "shameful" and a violation of democratic norms. Farmers continue to demand a complete reversal of the tax increases and plan larger protests for the following week. ("Mob of German farmers accosts top Green as protests escalate," Politico, 06 January 2024) 

Scholz visits Saxony-Anhalt due to floods alert
On 04 January, Deutsche Welle reported Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor visit to Saxony-Anhalt, where the village of Bennungen, near the river Helme, remained on high alert. Members of Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) urged the federal government to consider declaring a state of emergency, allowing extra borrowing for flood relief in the worst hit northern Germany.  By 03 January, about 100,000 individuals, encompassing emergency services and volunteers, were activated in Lower Saxony, and French emergency crews were also present to contribute to flood relief in the region. The Lilienthal area in one of the most severely impacted regions, 20,000 residents were forced to evacuate. (“Germany: Flooding persists in north and east, Scholz visits,” Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2024) 

Inflation relaxed to 5.9 per cent; Food and energy prices remain high
On 04 January, Deutsche Welle reported Germany’s ease in inflation to 5.9 per cent in 2023 compared to 6.9 per cent in 2022 as published by German Statistics Agency Destatis. While inflation had been consistently decreasing since June, there was a rise in December, driven by persistent increases in food and energy costs, 4.5 and 4.1 percent. According to data released, 2023 proved better than 2022, as German industries dependency over Russian fuels were hit and faced high prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (“Germany sees inflation ease to 5.9% for 2023,” Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2023)

“Deustchlandtrend” opinion poll reveals pessimistic country prospects for 2024
On 05 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the results of a nationwide poll of 1,321 eligible voters executed by pollster Infratest dimap, The report revealed citizen’s fears over harsh weather conditions, price rise, refugee influx, while also indicating uncertainty over of Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war. Therefore, only nine per cent believed that these conflicts to end by 2024. Voters' perspectives on Germany's stance in Ukraine have generally remained steady, however 41 per cent of respondents now view Germany's financial aid to Ukraine as overly extensive, reflecting the country's escalating budgetary challenges. Germany had pledged USD 8.6 billion as military aid in 2024. Around 80 per cent of voters expressed skepticism over chances of US reducing its Ukraine support and EU managing the balance. Nationally, only 19 per cent are satisfied with Scholz's performance, with just 17 per cent approving of the federal government's overall job. (Sabine Kinkartz, “War, inflation, flooding: Germans' negative outlook on 2024,” Deutsche Welle, 05 January 2023) 

GREECE

Historic site of Alexander the Great’s crowning reopened after restoration
On 06 January, the BBC reported on the reopening of the Palace of Aigai, one of the most significant sites in Greek antiquity, after restoration. The Palace, built by Alexander the Great’s father Philip II in the then capital of Aigai, was the site of the former’s crowning in 336 BC. The restoration of the UNESCO World Heritage Site took sixteen years and EUR 20 million with the help of the EU, and was declared a “monument of global importance” by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister. The palace, the largest in ancient Macedonia, featured banquet halls, places of worship and courtyards. (Kathryn Armstrong, “Palace of Aigai: Greece reopens huge Alexander the Great monument,” BBC, 06 January, 2024)

NORWAY

Ban on diesel cruise ships sparks fears of diminished tourism
On 04 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the Norwegian Parliament’s decision to adopt a zero-emission policy and to allow only cruise ships that use greener alternative fuels to sail from 2026. Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s Foreign Minister stated that “ships produce world’s highest emissions per passenger and travelled kilometre and pollute the fjords.” A swift ban on diesel cruise ships threatens the livelihood of residents of Geiranger Fjord, who depend largely on mass tourism, which will take a hit post-implementation of the policy. The existing technology that uses Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) achieves “far too little” according to the government which proposes a switch to electric-powered cruise ships. The residents however hope for a longer transition period ensuring that tourism and livelihood remain unaffected. (“Norway bans polluting cruise ships,” Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2023)

SLOVAKIA

Heat pump rises as a sustainable alternative in European energy market
On 03 January, The Slovak Spectator reported on the increasing investments in the heat pump industry as an effective and sustainable fuel alternative, following rise in energy prices spilling from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Given the increased demand, investments have increased by both existing manufacturers and newer businesses from western Europe, according to the Slovak Investment and Trade Development Agency (SARIO). The largest European investors are German companies, following a change in legislation favouring the sustainable heat pump industry, feeding into its domestic demands as well. (Jana Liptáková, “Energy crisis fuels heat pump investments in Slovakia,” The Slovak Spectator, 03 January, 2024)
 
SPAIN

Unemployment dips to record low since 2007
On 03 January, spainenglish reported on the lowest unemployment rates in Spain since 2007, having decreased 4.59 per cent since December 2022. As of 2023, over 20.8 million employed people with social security benefits, with the highest annual job creation since 2018 excluding post-Covid recovery. The Balearic Islands peaked with the highest employment rates in the country, with Catalonia, Valencia and La Rioja being exceptions with an increase in unemployment rates. New employment policies have mostly benefited women and the youth, as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez noted record female employment in the country. (“Unemployment in Spain reaches its lowest level since 2007,” spainenglish, 03 January, 2024)
 
SWITZERLAND

Culling of wolves alarming for European biodiversity
On 04 January, swissinfo reported on Bern’s decision to allow a preventative culling of up to 70 per cent of the wolf population, citing threats to livestock. The government’s decision came following a thirty per cent annual increase in the predator’s population, a sentiment that has spread as a cross-border issue in Europe. While EU nations are bound by strict conservation laws, the European Commission proposed to downgrade the status of wolves from “strictly protected” to “protected”, creating freer rules like Switzerland. The EU’s decision is also based on a livestock conundrum, with some critics accusing Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission’s President, of furthering a personal agenda. However, a large-scale culling needs the approval of the 27 EU members and therefore might not materialise soon in European policy even if it has Swiss backing. (Domhnall O’Sullivan, “Wolf crackdown in Switzerland: a sign of what’s to come in Europe?”, swissinfo, 04 January, 2024)

THE NETHERLANDS
Heavy rainfalls causes flooding of major highways and provinces
On 05 January, the NL Times reported on the state of flooding in eastern and northeastern Netherlands, leading to road safety concerns and concerning water levels in the Maas River. The flooding of N345 and N36 led to road closures, and freezing temperatures increased the risk of road transportation. The water level in the Maas River reached its highest, releasing 1,700 cubic metres of water per second south of Maastricht at Sint Pieter. The weirs (low dams) along the Maas have been raised to allow the flow of water, currently declining based on inflow from France and the Ardennes. The Noord-Brabant province is simultaneously using available water storage facilities to prevent flooding in the region. (“Major roadways flooded in the east and northeast Netherlands”, NL Times, 05 January, 2024; “Highest Maas River water level has passed Maastricht; Noord-Brabant opens flood defenses,” NL Times, 05 January, 2024)

TURKEY

Hotel faces trial over fatal buildings collapse in turkey 
On 05 January, Deutsche Welle reported on a trial against Grand Isias Hotel following the severe earthquakes that struck Turkey in 2023 over building collapse. A charge of "conscious negligence" was placed because of poor building quality the Grand Isias Hotel collapsed after the earthquakes killing 72 people including Northern Cyprus students. Questions concerning government accountability and the state of building standards were raised due to this incident. The prosecution claimed that the hotel was unlawfully altered and inappropriately extended without permits and requested for harsh terms of up to 22 years. In addition, the trial seeks Turkey's commitment to enhance building safety and avert such tragedies in earthquake-prone areas. ("Turkey earthquakes: Trial over collapsed hotel begins," Deutsche Welle, 05 January 2024) 

REGIONAL
Power cable between Finland and Estonia goes offline
On 06 January, Sputnik reported on the shutdown of electricity transmission through Estlink 1, the high-voltage connection between Finland and Estonia, after a possible malfunction. The cable commissioned in 2007 went offline while its power capacity stood at 50 MW, according to the operator of Fingrid, the Finnish power grid. Estlink 1 is part of two underwater power cables between the two countries in an attempt to integrate the energy markets of the Scandinavian region and the Baltic states within the EU region and a possible attempt at diversifying Europe’s energy sources. (“Outage Occurs at Estonian-Finnish Undersea Power Cable Estlink 1,” Sputnik, 06 January, 2024)

Commission's DSA Showdown with Tech Giant X: The Climactic AI Showdown
On 06 January, EURACTIV reported on the upcoming conclusion of the EU's AI law with a potential conflict between Germany, France, and Italy over "foundation models" risking the agreement. While France advocated for approval, Germany's Digital Minister strongly opposes it and Italy remains uncertain. If three more dissenters emerge the bill could be blocked, whereas opposing will also lead to political risks and delays in the implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA). The European Commission demonstrates its authority by initiating an investigation into X (likely Twitter) for alleged violations of the DSA sending a clear message to all major tech companies. ("AI, final Act? Commission’s DSA showdown with X," EURACTIV, 06 January 2024)

INTERNATIONAL

Chinese probe into French Liquor, straining relations with EU
On 05 January, Politico reported on China’s investigation into potential dumping by European liquor producers, particularly targeting France's brandy sector in response to the EU's trade assertiveness. This includes a probe into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies that was strongly pushed by French government. The ongoing investigation by Beijing shall target cognac, Armagnac and other brandies which generate a USD 1.57 billion (EUR 1.44 billion) export business for spirits groups like Remy Martin or Hennessy, while further straining the already tense relationship between the European Union and China and is also likely to impact the upcoming state visit to Beijing by Alexander De Croo, Belgian Prime Minister. (Koen Verhelst, Antonia Zimmermann and Camille Gijs, “Chinese liquor probe escalates trade tensions with Brussels,” Politico, 05 January 2023) 


05 January 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #722

England: Junior doctors initiate a six-day strike demanding pay rise

EU announces restrictive measures against crimes involves in Myanmar; Sunak proposes to postpone Spring elections; Lowest temperatures reported by Swedish Meteorological Institute

Photo : Daniel Leal/AFP


In Brief
By Meenakshi R, Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian

HUNGARY
Hungarian Defence forces to lead mission to support Bosnian police
On 04 January, Hungary Today reported on the decision of EU Political and Security Committee to make Hungarian Defence Forces lead EU’s peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina for a year. The commander of the mission, Major General László Sticz, emphasised on the potential use of new equipment like helicopters post 2018 military reform. The EUFOR ALTHEA mission will support local authorities, prioritise Bosnian police assistance. Sticz underscored the importance of an impartial and credible international military force with deterrent capabilities. (“Hungarian Defense Forces Lead EU Peacekeeping Mission in Bosnia,” Hungary Today, 04 January 2024)

ITALY
Former Italian prime minister suggests reforms to the EU single market
On 04 January, Politico reported on Enrico Letta, former Italian Prime Minister’s plan to propose changes to the policies guiding the EU single market and national subsidy systems. In his role as the reviewer of the state of the single market, Letta found consistent ‘brain drain’ from certain EU economies to more opportune ones, leaving countries like Romania, Poland, Italy and Portugal at a major skills-based disadvantage. He noted that the freedom of movement must entail the freedom to stay. Further, his report will also include major changes to policies on state subsidies that benefit some industries over others, instead proposing a European industrial policy over “a national fragmentation.” (Jacopo Barigazzi And Giovanna Faggionato, “EU single market czar outlines key reforms,” Politico, 04 January 2024)
 
SWEDEN
Lowest temperatures reported by Swedish Meteorological Institute
On 03 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the continuing record cold temperature in Sweden. According to the report, the temperatures hit low to minus 40 degrees Celsius. The same was reported by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ranging between minus 40 C and 30 C at Kvikkjokk-Årrenjarka, a Lapland mountain in the northernmost, Nikkaluokta in north Sweden, and city of Umea. In response to the cold weather condition, trains were suspended till 04 January. Comparing the temperatures of February 2001, Sweden has witnessed the coldest temperature of minus 44 degrees Celsius. (“Extreme cold: Temperatures drop below minus 40 C in Sweden,” Deutsche Welle, 03 January 2024)
 
THE UK
Sunak proposes to postpone Spring elections
On 05 January, Politico reported Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister recent hint to hold the vote of spring elections in the latter half of 2024. While Sunak's Conservative Party currently trails in the polls, the timing decision lies within his control. This delay comes despite pressure from Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is observed to capitalize on economic concerns and challenge the Tories'. With the spring budget, tax cuts, and local elections already in play, the stage is set for a potentially pivotal showdown later 2024. ("Rishi Sunak appears to rule out spring UK election," Politico, 05 January 2024)
 
Storm Henk hampers travel and power supply
On 03 January, Le Monde reported on Environment Agency’s warning over flood as Storm Henk hit parts of England, with strongest gusts reaching 151 kilometres per hour hitting Isle of Wight. Residents near Northampton, were evacuated due to rising River Nene waters, leading to eight flood warnings in Wales, including a severe one. Additionally, 10,000 customers faced power outages, major roads were closed, and train services disrupted due to fallen trees from high winds. (“Storm Henk causes flooding and travel disruption in UK,” Le Monde, 03 January 2024)
 
England: Junior doctors initiate a six-day strike demanding pay rise
On 03 January, Deutsche Welle reported on six-day strike staged by thousands of junior doctors in England. In the 75-year history of the National Health Service (NHS) the strike is considered the longest. The reason behind the strike is due to the long-running demand of the doctors for pay rise. Since the offer by British Medical Association (BMA) for a rise of eight to 10 per cent failed due to the counter offer of 35 per cent by the junior doctors, the strikes reemerged. According to the junior doctors union: “Add to this years of pay erosion, and it's no wonder that morale on the frontline has never been lower.” Due to the strike, the NHS reported on severe impact on “All routine care.” (“England doctors stage longest-ever strike over pay,” Deutsche Welle, 05 January 2024)
 
REGIONAL
EU announces restrictive measures against crimes involves in Myanmar
On 03 January, the European Council released a statement announcing the alignment of some EU-allied countries to its restrictive measures against crimes involved in Myanmar. The candidate countries of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia, members of the European Economic Area, Armenia, along with the EFTA countries Liechtenstein and Norway, agreed to implement the Council’s decision. The Council added four individuals and two entities against whom restrictive measures will be implemented, which will be implemented by aligned countries nationally. Restrictive measures include asset freezes, funding to aligned parties to the Tatmadaw, travel ban into EU territory, along with funding blocks and embargoes, in order to pressure Myanmar against human rights violations. (“Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the alignment of certain countries concerning restrictive measures in view of the situation in Myanmar/Burma,” European Council, 03 January 2024)


03 January 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #720

Estonian government legalizes same-sex marriage

Tesla continues to dominate in electric cars market in Norway; Switzerland government abolished tariffs on industrial products to boost economy

Photo : Human Rights Watch


CROATIA
First Digital Village Project commenced to combat rural depopulation
On 03 January, Total Croatia reported on Croatia’s problem over rural exodus crisis as 195 ghost villages and numerous others struggle. To help them survive the "First Croatian Digital Village Project," led by Poslovni Dnevnik aims to equip farmers with the necessary technology and networking skills, educating them on digital tools. This will enhance agriculture in a smarter and more sustainable way. The project takes advantage of Croatia's extensive investment opportunities in digitization utilising artificial intelligence, robotics, and advanced internet technologies to transform production methods, improve efficiency, and address concerns regarding food security. Success of this endeavour relies on the collaboration between policymakers, industry leaders, and technology providers, ensuring inclusivity and bridging the digital gap. By embracing this digital transformation, Croatian agriculture has the potential to not only revive its rural communities but also thrive in the modern world, benefiting farmers, consumers, and the environment alike. ("First Croatian Digital Village Project Commences," Total Croatia, 03 January 2024)
 
ESTONIA
Government legalizes same-sex marriage
On 03 January, ERR News reported on Estonia move to legalize same-sex marriage. This significant change resolves long standing legal uncertainties and establishes equal rights for all couples under the law. Signe Riisalo, Minister of Social Protection emphasised the importance of acceptance and empathy while also facilitating a seamless transition from existing civil partnerships to marriages. This progressive move not only promotes societal advantages but also safeguards individuals' rights concerning property, inheritance, and other legal matters. Effective from 01 January 2024, Estonia embraces inclusivity and upholds the fundamental right to love for all its citizens. ("Same-sex marriage now legal in Estonia," ERR News, 03 January 2024)
 
KOSOVO
Joins Europe's borderless zone; Sparking hope for closer ties
On 03 January, Le Monde reported on after a long wait “visa D-day” was celebrated by Kosovars on 01 January when the Schengen area’s open borders welcomed them for the first time without the need for a visa. This historic move towards EU integration brought relief to those who saw it as a sign of recognition for Kosovo’s future. Alongside there is also fear of abuse of new freedom, Kosovo enters a new era of free movement eager to demonstrate its readiness to be a responsible partner in the European family. ("Kosovo joins Europe's visa-free Schengen zone," Le Monde, 03 January 2024)

NORWAY
Tesla continues to dominate in electric cars market
On 03 January, novinite.com reported on how Tesla remains dominant in Norway for the third consecutive year despite challenges from labour unions in sale of electric cars. In 2023, 83 per cent of newly purchased cars were equipped with electric plugs and Tesla secured a remarkable 20 per cent share of the market. This surge in electric vehicle adoption is driven by favourable tax incentives and Norway's ambitious objective of phasing out petrol and diesel cars by 2025. Despite facing opposition from unions in Sweden regarding worker rights, Tesla's sales in Norway showed no signs of deceleration, underscoring the unwavering dedication of the Nordic nation towards an electric-powered future. ("Electric Cars Dominate Norway's Market, Diesel and Gasoline Face Phase-Out," novinite.com, 03 January 2024)

SWITZERLAND
Government abolished tariffs on industrial products to boost economy
On 03 January, Swissinfo.ch reported on Switzerland’s step towards reducing costs for consumers and manufacturers by eliminating tariffs on industrial imports. This move is expected to result in lower prices and a wider range of products on Swiss shelves. The abolition of import duties on machinery, raw materials, bicycles, clothing, and other industrial goods is estimated to generate annual gains of over CHF 860 million. The government believes that the economic boost from increased output will outweigh any concerns about lost customs revenue. This decision reinforces Switzerland's position as a business and industrial hub, creating a more vibrant and competitive market for both its citizens and industries. ("Switzerland abolishes tariffs on industrial product imports," Swissinfo.ch, 03 January 2024)
 
THE NETHERLANDS
Healthcare workers feel unprotected as aggression is on the rise
On 03 January, NL Times reported on healthcare professionals concerns over their safety as a 90 per cent reported on a notable increase in aggressive incidents. According to the report, one in three healthcare workers experience verbal and physical attacks from the patients on a weekly basis. These attacks include screaming, threats, and even spitting, are often carried out by patients and their families, primarily stemming from psychiatric issues or disagreements regarding treatment. This alarming rise in violence leaves healthcare workers feeling vulnerable and unsupported, as only 20 per cent believe that appropriate consequences would be enforced. The recent survey conducted by NU'91 highlights the dire state of the healthcare system, emphasising the urgent need for effective measures to safeguard its invaluable workforce. ("Increase in aggression towards people who work in health care," NL Times, 03 January 2024)


02 January 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #719

Belgium Government sets out agenda for the EU Council Presidency

Russian forces begin using Yastreb-AV systems; Protest continues across Belgrade calling for new elections in Serbia

Photo : europa.eu


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

BELGIUM
Government sets out agenda for the EU Council Presidency
On 01 January, Deutsche Welle reported on Belgium’s assumption of EU Council presidency and the challenges ahead to carry out its agenda. Belgium which is taking over the presidency after Spain in 2024 has more than 100 legislative projects, an asylum reform, and regulation of EU’s AI to finalise before April. The next European Parliamentary elections scheduled in June, pending legislative projects would be carried forward but under a new Commission. As the time remains limited, Hadja Lahbib, Belgium’s Foreign Minister says: “we are better in finding solutions than creating problems.” As far as Belgium’s agenda in considered, it aims to brings laws in inducing “green restructuring of the economy,” and to increase “Europe’s global competitiveness.” Apart from this handling the Hungarian block over aid to Ukraine and discussion over EU’s internal mechanism and strategizing its foreign policy are also on the list. (Bernd Riegert, “Belgium's bold EU Council agenda,” Deutsche Welle, 01 January 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Russian forces begin using Yastreb-AV systems
On 02 January, Sputnik reported on Russia’s new Yastreb-AV artillery reconnaissance systems. According to the report, the systems are designed to provide intelligence and targeting data to Russia’s artillery units. It utilises advanced sensors, communication and data processing to help commanders identify enemy position quickly and with precision. On the same, Russia’s defence ministry reported on usage of the systems in the operations in Ukraine under the “counter-battery combat.” (“Russian Armed Forces Receive New Yastreb-AV Artillery Reconnaissance System,” Sputnik, 02 January 2023)
 
SERBIA
Protest continues across Belgrade calling for new elections
On 30 December 2023, protestors gathered in central Belgrade calling for new round of elections. One of the protestors said to Deutsche Welle: “We want proper electoral registers and new elections under fair conditions. I hope many more people will take to the streets.” Although the protests remain small but staged every day, majority stay at home. The opposition party, Serbia Against Violence, a pro-European alliance was observed to still invoke public interest through hunger strike. One of the opposition ministers, Marinika Tepic who had held out for 12 days said: “I'm just hungry for freedom and justice.” The protest sparked following the continued victory of Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s President heading Serbian Progressive Party through fraud as claimed by the opposition. The opposition argue that the elections was “rigged” due to “falsification of the electoral register.” (Nemanha Rujevic, “Political tensions high in Serbia amid vote fraud protests,” Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2023)
 
THE UK
Government reports in decrease in the migrant crossing in English Channel
On 02 January, the Government of the UK reported on the decrease in entry of migrants into the UK through the English Channel. According to the data released, UK witnessed 36 per cent (29,437) drop in 2023 compared to 2022 (45,775). On the same Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister stated on how the government’s priority has been on stopping such boat arrivals. He added: “That is why we have taken action to stop the boats, return hotels to their local communities and deter those wanting to come here illegally from doing so.” According to the report, the government had spent EUR 3.46 billion annually in processing the migrants asylum process and had cleared 92,000 asylum cases by 2023. It had processed more than 112,000 cases with 67 per cent granted asylum. (“UK: Nearly 30,000 migrants crossed Channel in 2023,” Deutsche Welle, 01 January 2023)


01 January 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #718

Hungary receives HUF 300 billion from EU’s RePowerEU plan

Estonia boosts defence amid Russia’s threat; Venice implements stricter tourist rules

Photo : Minister of Finance Mihály Varga of Hungary. Szilárd Koszticsák/MTI


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

ALBANIA
Court places Sali Berisha under house arrest amid corruption probe
On 31 December 2023, Politico reported that Sali Berisha, former Prime Minister, now opposition leader, faced house arrest amid a corruption probe. He was accused of favouring his son-in-law in land privatisation, he denies charges, citing political bias by Edi Rama, Prime Minister. Berisha planned to appeal the verdict that limits his movement and communication, calling it baseless and blaming Rama for stifling opposition. Prosecutors have not pressed charges but claim Berisha breached prior legal mandates. The parliament revoked his immunity, and he faced travel bans in the UK and the US over alleged corruption. Rama refrained from viewing Berisha’s house arrest as a win. (Victor Jack, “Former Albania PM put under house arrest amid corruption probe,” Politico, 31 December 2023)

ESTONIA
Boosts defence amid Russia’s threat
On 31 December 2023, ERR News reported that Estonia significantly upgraded its defence capabilities in 2023. It reported that it is in response to NATO’s reevaluation of its eastern flank following Russia’s invasion on Ukraine. Despite record defence spending, preparations continue for new weapons and strategic manoeuvres. The Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) established a division to coordinate and direct joint military actions with allied units. Over EUR 500 million worth of deliveries, including weaponry and equipment, marked the third consecutive record year. The contracts with Germany for air defence systems are aimed to bolster Estonia’s air threat neutralisation by 2025. NATO’s strategic defence plans are underway, ensuring Estonia’s fortified stance amidst perceived Russia’s aggression. (Joakim Klementi, “Estonia's defense capabilities dramatically improved on year,” ERR News, 31 December 2023)

HUNGARY
Receives HUF 300 billion from EU’s RePowerEU plan
On 29 December 2023, HUNGARY today reported that Mihály Varga, Finance Minister, confirmed the arrival of HUF 300 billion in EU funds. The move followed the approval of the amended recovery plan by EU finance ministers on 08 December. The RePowerEU funds, totaling EUR 779.5 million, were transferred to Hungary. Varga highlighted the addition of a EUR 3.9 billion loan tranche and a EUR 0.7 billion non-reimbursable fund to the recovery plan. He emphasised a focus on green transition investments, constituting 67.1 per cent of the total program. The initiative responded to the energy crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, aiming to boost renewables, diversify energy supply, and enhance energy efficiency. (“Nearly 780 Million Euros in EU Funding Arrives,” Hungary today, 29 December 2023)

ITALY
Venice implements stricter tourist rules
On 30 December 2023, Venice’s city council restricted tourist groups to under 25 people and prohibited loudspeakers on tours, effective from 01 June 2024. The move is aimed at curbing mass tourism’s disruption; these rules cover the city centre and adjacent islands. The move seeked to safeguard residents from noise, disturbance and to foster more sustainable tourism. (“Italy: Venice bans large tourist groups and loudspeakers,” Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2023)

ROMANIA
EU agrees to lift air and maritime border controls with Bulgaria
On 30 December 2023, EU countries unanimously decided to remove air and maritime internal border checks with Bulgaria and Romania. The border checks would be removed by 31 March 2024, ending 12 years of negotiations. Fernando Grande-Marlaska Gomez, Spain’s Minister for the Interior, hailed this as a significant step toward strengthening the Schengen area. Talks are sought to continue regarding the lifting of internal land border controls. Discussions are aimed for the full inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen zone. Ursula von der Leyen, EU’s President, termed the decision historic, signalling a positive stride for both countries and the Schengen area. Negotiations, driven by Spain’s Presidency, sealed the agreement just before the transition to Belgium’s leadership. (“Schengen area: Council agrees to lift air and maritime internal border controls with Bulgaria and Romania,” European Council, 30 December 2023; Jones Hayden, “Bulgaria, Romania get official green light for partial entry into Schengen,” Politico, 31 December 2023)

THE UK
Eurostar resumes services after tunnel flooding disruption
On 30 December 2023, Eurostar, an international rail service, cancelled 41 trains due to tunnel flooding in England. The move affected travel between London, Paris, Brussels, and Amsterdam. Floods disrupted routes near Kent’s Ebbsfleet station. The company apologised and confirmed a return to normal service on 31 December. Thousands faced travel challenges before new year. Eurostar attributed the issue to “unprecedented” flooding. Weather warnings by the Met Office remained effective, with speed restrictions anticipated despite one tunnel’s reopening. HS1, managing London-to-channel tunnel routes, assured the line’s morning operation after resolving the Thames Tunnel flooding. The cause of the initial leak remains undisclosed. (“Eurostar resumes rail services after flood disruptions,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2023; Saskia O'Donoghue, “Eurostar services resume following travel chaos,” Euronews, 31 December 2023)

TURKEY
Police arrests 189 ISIS members
On 30 December 2023, 189 individuals linked to Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) was apprehended in widespread raids across 37 cities. Ali Yerlikaya, Turkey’s Interior Minister, emphasised zero tolerance for terrorism, revealing the arrests made in cities like Ankara, Istanbul, and Gaziantep. The operation followed previous arrests connected to a embassy attack plot. (“Turkey arrests 189 Islamic State suspects,” Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2023)


30 December 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #717

Italian Government speeds up recovery with EUR 16.5 billion EU funds

Tony Chung activist from Hong Kong seeks asylum in the UK; Venezuela condemns UK warship deployment near guyana

Photo : Reuters/The Financial Times


In Brief
By Meenakshi Ravichandran

BULGARIA
Lawsuits challenge COVID-19 handling of the government
On 30 December, Euractiv reported on Three lawsuits that criticise Bulgaria's pandemic response specifically, the poorly executed vaccination rollout and dubious school closures have put the country in the sights of legal action. The government is accused of neglecting vaccination public education, closing schools unnecessarily and failing to prioritise disadvantaged populations in the accusations which are being led by the Helsinki Committee and the Bulgarian Open Society Office. They contend that Bulgaria has the second-highest COVID-19 fatality rate in the world which is a tragic result of these purported failings. The lawsuits highlight a case of improper vaccination administration for children and call for prompt action to safeguard vulnerable lives and end prejudice. They also aim to bring attention to the disorganised vaccination process. ("Bulgaria is facing lawsuits because of the pandemic," Euractiv, 30 December 2023)

ITALY
Government speeds up recovery with EUR 16.5 billion EU funds
On 30 December, ANSA English reported on the fourth iteration of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) released by the European Commission. It provided a significant impetus for Italy's post-pandemic recovery. This substantial EUR 16.5 billion award was obtained following Italy's successful completion of 28 major benchmarks indicating advancement in critical domains such as public procurement social inclusion, public administration modernization, and justice reform. This will be deployed to support investments in the space sector, green hydrogen technologies, transportation infrastructure, research, education, and social policies, as well as to drive improvements in digitization, namely cloud migration for local public administrations. With this large payment, Italy has already secured approximately EUR 102 billion in NRRP resources, demonstrating its commitment to and advancement towards the plan's goals.Working together with the European Commission, Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s Prime Minister has reaffirmed her government's commitment to the prompt and comprehensive implementation of the amended NRRP. ("'Fourth NRRP installment paid today' - premier's office," ANSA English, 30 December 2023)

RUSSIA
Foreign Ministry demands for immediate ceasefire in Gaza
On 30 December, Sputnik reported on Russia's Foreign Ministry has been vocally supporting a quick truce in the Gaza conflict in recent days, condemning terrorism and collective punishment and highlighting how urgent it is to put an end to the ongoing carnage. In addition to this diplomatic posture, the Russian Defence Ministry demonstrated the remarkable powers of the Kh-101 cruise missile which was created by the Raduga Design Bureau and has a 5,500-kilometer range and large payloads.Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia brought attention to Ukraine's resource shortages in the midst of the conflict before the UN Security Council saying that his nation does not have the resources to advance or sustain the status quo on the contact line. Nebenzia called on the Security Council to take action against Ukraine for placing anti-air defence systems in residential areas, which is regarded as a violation of international humanitarian law. ("Russia Calls for an Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza," Sputnik, 30 December 2023)

SWEDEN
Initiative to use drones to deliver defibrillators for cardiac arrest cases 
On 30 December, Euractiv reported on the skies over Sweden becoming battlefields against cardiac arrest as a life saving transformation takes place. According to a groundbreaking study in 67 per cent of cases drones fitted with defibrillators reach patients up to three times faster than ambulances. Though obstacles like weather and limitations still exist these self sufficient life savers provide vital equipment to patients within 15 metres. Researchers envision countless applications such as applying wound bandages for mishaps or administering adrenaline for allergies. This pioneering European initiative sets the stage for broader adoption and might save countless lives throughout the continent where 350,000 cardiac arrests occur outside of hospitals every year. While researchers are planning to link the defibrillator system with volunteer networks. Sweden's drone fleet takes off, providing hope and a glimpse into a future when emergency response reaches new heights. ("Sweden uses drones to fight cardiac arrest," Euractiv, 30 December 2023) 

THE UK
Tony Chung activist from Hong Kong seeks asylum
On 30 December, the BBC reported on Tony Chung, a well known pro democracy activist bravely fled Hong Kong to seek refuge in the UK out of fear of ongoing surveillance and harassment from the government. After being found guilty of encouraging secession Chung was released from prison in June and entered what he calls "an even bigger and more dangerous prison." Chung felt stuck in a situation, forced to report on fellow activists faced with regular police meetings and even offered money to become an informant. He took the decision to leave his native country and seek refuge overseas all the while appearing to be on a sanctioned trip to Japan. Chung is now in the UK and intends to recover, and go back to school and keep fighting for a more independent Hong Kong. ("Tony Chung: Student activist flees Hong Kong to seek asylum in UK," BBC, 30 December 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
75th anniversary of BRI offers opportunities to improve Hungary-china relations 
On 30 December, Hungary Today reported on two significant events the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Hungary and China. Hungary's EU Presidency is predicted to have a significant impact on 2024. It is even possible that in 2024 Chinese President Xi Jinping would pay a visit to Hungary. Since the Belt and Road project was announced in 2013 Hungary's relations with China have grown stronger and in 2015 Hungary joined the Chinese project. Hungarian government policy has placed an increasing amount of emphasis on the country's relationship with China. For example, the government declared significant Chinese investments this year, and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his delegation travelled to China in October. ("Significant Year to Come in Hungarian-Chinese Relations," Hungary Today,30 December 2023) 

Venezuela Condemns UK Warship Deployment Near Guyana
On 30 December, Politico reported on the UK dispatch of the cruiser HMS Trent to Guyana, despite the long-simmering border conflict between Venezuela and Guyana.  Nicolás Maduro declares it is a "hostile provocation" and launched military drills in Venezuela in retaliation. The flames were fueled by the oil-rich Essequibo, which Venezuela claims but Guyana controls. The recent vote called by Maduro to garner support from the populace for the region further fueled the flames. The action taken by the UK is a possible deterrent against Venezuelan aggression as well as a show of support for Guyana. The international world is closely monitoring the situation and is pushing for negotiation and a peaceful resolution through the International Court of Justice, which Venezuela now rejects. De-escalation depends on the future actions and rhetoric from both sides. ("Venezuela’s Maduro blasts ‘provocation’ as UK sends warship to Guyana," Politico, 30 December 2023)

A look at EU Southeast Asia relations in 2024
On 30 December, Deutsche Welle Reported on A significant shift in the EU Southeast Asian relationship is anticipated in 2024 characterised by important elections simmering trade tensions and readjusting alliances. Economic relations are clouded by new EU restrictions pertaining to palm oil which may put strain on relationships with significant Southeast Asian exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia. The region's Muslim-majority countries are adamantly opposed to what they see as EU hypocrisy over the Israel-Gaza conflict. As China's close ally Laos assumes the ASEAN chairmanship worries over Beijing's sway on regional agendas intensify. As ethnic armed factions hold tentative discussions with the junta speculation about possible realignments within the country is rife. This is contributing to the ongoing uncertainty in Myanmar. The February EU-ASEAN Ministerial Summit presents a critical chance to fortify the cooperation and advance multilateralism in the face of growing international uncertainty. The EU and Southeast Asia will shape the future of their long-standing partnership as 2024 progresses by managing these changing tides and striking a balance between conflicting interests. ("What's in store for EU-Southeast Asia ties in 2024?," Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2023)


29 December 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #716

Putin welcomes Jaishankar; Affirms strong India Russia connection 

Schengen expansion welcome Romania and Bulgaria; German patients' treatment uncertain due to doctor strikes

Photo : Alexei Nikolsky/Sputnik


In Brief
By Meenakshi Ravichandran

FRANCE
Macron demands immediate ceasefire in Gaza conflict 
On 29 December, Le Monde reported on During a recent conference conversation, French President Macron pushed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for a "lasting ceasefire" in an effort to improve the severe humanitarian situation in Gaza. Macron highlighted the need for both sides to put an end to violence and emphasised steps to stop new settlements and safeguard Palestinians in the West Bank. He expressed profound sadness about the deaths of civilians and the rising tensions. Netanyahu also praised France for its cooperation in maintaining sea traffic security and providing security along the Lebanese border. As the fighting continues to devastate both sides, hopes for a long-lasting truce are still tenuous.("Macron asks Netanyahu for 'lasting ceasefire' in Gaza," Le Monde, 29 December 2023)

HUNGARY
Battery manufacturing to become the second highest in the world
On 29 December, Hungary Today reported on Hungary is rapidly becoming a battery powerhouse thanks to investments from the east, moving it up from fourth to second place in the world manufacturing rankings. Driven by Hungary's open doors, giants such as China's CATL, the world's leading battery manufacturer, are establishing themselves alongside five others. Hungary's quick ascent is largely due to this Eastern alliance, even though China continues to rule the battery hill.  The largest project ever in Hungary, CATL's €7.9 billion mega-project, is facing local opposition due to environmental concerns.That's what environmental organisations like Greenpeace and WWF think, and they advocate for ethical battery manufacture as the key to opening up a sustainable future. Hungary has to walk a tightrope between progress and the environment as it advances towards battery leadership. ("Hungary on the Way to Become the Second Largest Producer of Electric Batteries," Hungary Today, 29 December 2023)

Danube River under impact over Budapest flood levels surge 
On 29 December, Hungary Today reported on as flood warnings blazing over 1,200 km, Hungary is braced for the effects of decades of greatest Danube River levels. The epicentre management Budapest is forecasting a record breaking 680 centimetre peak which would submerge lower quays and force car relocations. Rising concerns are echoed by the Raba River near Gyor and receding waters of the Tisza face the threat of tidal surges. While they rush to rescue and evacuate firefighters sandbag homes and advise the public to remain vigilant. In the days ahead Hungary's fortitude will be put to the test as the Danube's strength crests and floodwaters create a brand-new, unpredictable environment. Pray for quickly receding seas and remain alert and informed. ("Floods: Danube River Peaks, Budapest Braces for Highest Water Levels," Hungary Today, 29 December 2023)

GERMANY
Hottest year recorded as global temperatures soar
On 29 December, Deutsche Welle  reported on Germany’s living in record heat and 2023 looks to be the warmest year on record following a pattern of extreme heat around the globe. As flooding recedes leaving damage across the country temperatures by year's conclusion soar over 2022's record high. Alarm bells are ringing with this scorching echo of the worldwide 1.46°C rise beyond pre-industrial levels reminding us of the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent  by 2030 as per the Paris Agreement."Germany: 2023 set to be warmest year on record," Deutsche Welle, 29 December 2023)

German patients treatment uncertain due to doctor strikes
On 29 December, Deutsche Welle reported on Following an increase in COVID-19 and flu cases, hundreds of doctors in Germany are going on a three day strike due to frustration with their poor pay and excessive paperwork putting the country's healthcare system at risk of collapsing. By drawing attention to unsustainable conditions this "lesser evil" protest which was strongly criticised by patients and the Health Minister aims to safeguard long term patient care. Physicians criticise spending restrictions that reduce income and hinder high quality care and they are advocating for the repeal of a 1992 law that they believe to be the main offender. Despite conceding the constraints of bureaucracy the Health Ministry is adamant about calling off the strike in favour of negotiations in the coming year. Despite disagreements, everyone agrees that urgent attention is necessary to maintain the high quality of treatment provided by Germany's well liked healthcare system, which has a vast network of specialists and is easy to access.("German doctors go on strike as virus season hits," Deutsche Welle, 29 December 2023)

REGIONAL
Schengen expansion welcome Romania and Bulgaria 
On 29 December, Politico reported on Romania and Bulgaria will be able to enter the Schengen area, which is a big step towards further EU unity and unrestricted mobility. The agreement to permit air and sea travel from these countries beginning in March 2024 is reason for pride, even though land borders are still up for discussion.Over 400 million people of the 26 European countries that make up the Schengen zone can travel without a passport.  Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister of Romania, expressed hope that land border talks will be fruitful in 2024, opening the door for total integration.Even while land boundaries are still a problem, this agreement is a step in the right direction towards complete integration and opens the door to a more prosperous and connected future for everybody. ("Romania, Bulgaria set to partially enter Schengen zone in March," Politico, 29 December 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Putin welcomes Jaishankarn affirms strong India Russia connection 
On 29 December, Sputnik reported on India and Russia's friendship endures in the face of world unrest. Putin gave Jaishankar assurances of continuous development, citing booming commerce and high-tech cooperation outside of the coal and oil industries. He praised Modi's nonviolent efforts in Ukraine and cordially invited him to visit in 2024. In return, Jaishankar expressed gratitude for reaching the fifty dollars billion trade milestone and hinted at much bigger possibilities. At their meeting, agreements were reached to solidify the expansion of the Kudankulam nuclear project, which is another important milestone in this long-lasting collaboration. India and Russia's relationship is unwavering because of their mutual respect and aspirations for a better future, even in the face of global upheaval. ("India-Russia Ties Making Steady Headway Despite Turbulences in World: Putin to Jaishankar," Sputnik, 29 December 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #715 I 28 December 2023, Thursday

Strike by junior doctors affect appointments in UK

Photo : BBC


In Brief
By Meenakshi Ravichandran

LATVIA
Riga rolls out 35 Solaris electric buses
On 28 December, ENG.LSM.lv reported on release of 35 new electric buses in Riga. Known as "Solaris" vehicles are currently undergoing testing to replace the noisy diesel buses. With the support of the EU Cohesion Fund the city, the initiative aims towards a greener future reducing both CO2 emissions and noise pollution. Additional benefit for the passengers includes comfortable journeys, smartphone charging ports and a reduced environmental impact. ("Electric buses ready to hit the streets of Rīga," ENG.LSM.lv, 28 December 2023)

44 new species discovered in wildlife observations
On 28 December, ENG.LSM.lv reported on Latvia's natural environment observations of recording more than 281,000 diverse fauna and flora of Latvia. The figures include a total of 44 unknown species such as slime fungi and rare plants. While birds continue to dominate the list of most spotted creatures butterflies, mushrooms also add to the list. This surge in record was due to “availability of technology” easing the reporting by the individuals faster and motivating to be part of data collection process. ("Latvia recorded many wildlife observations in 2023," ENG.LSM.lv, 28 December 2023)

FRANCE
Eiffel Tower to remain closed due to worker strike
On 28 December, Deutsche Welle reported on closure of Eiffel Tower in Paris due to strike over worker contract. Marking the 100th anniversary of Gustave Eiffel's (French architect) death, the employees of the tower staged strike leaving numerous tourists to a closed entrance. Negotiations regarding the contract between the staff and the city have hit a roadblock leading to a symbolic protest. The tower remains inaccessible leaving pre-Christmas tourism and the upcoming 2024 Olympics in question. ("France: Eiffel Tower staff goes on strike," Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2023)

POLAND
Government reform to liquidate of all public media faces block from PiS
On 28 December, Deutsche Welle reported on the latest announcement by Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, Poland’s Cultural Minister on government’s decision to liquidate all public media. According to the government, the liquidation ensures the protection of jobs, prevent layoff and allows restructuring. Sienkiewicz added on revoking of lengthy liquidation processes if needed. Whereas the Law and Justice party (PiS) criticised the move calling destruction of Poland’s media. In response, Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister defended saying it was crucial for preserving a free press citing legal justification. ("Poland puts state media into liquidation amid political row," Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2023)

THE UK
Recycling: Plans for electrical goods to be included in UK collections
On 28 December, BBC News reported on UK government’s proposal to introduce kerbside collections for small electrical goods such as toasters and hair dryers from 2026. The main objective of this initiative is to improve recycling efforts and reduce the amount of waste that ends up in landfills. Under this plan retailers would be responsible for collecting larger electrical items, like fridges when delivering replacements for customers. By implementing these measures, the government aims to prevent the unnecessary disposal of millions of electrical items each year and make it easier for households to recycle unwanted electronics. The Environmental Services Association has expressed its support for these proposals highlighting that they would simplify the recycling process and provide greater convenience for individuals to recycle their waste electronics at home. (Thomas Mackintosh, "Recycling electrical goods could be done at kerbside and drop-off points in shops,"  BBC News, 28 December 2023)
 
Strike by junior doctors affect appointments
On 28 December, BBC News reported on the impact on National Health Service (NHS) due to a six-day strike by junior doctors starting 03 January. This marks the longest strike in the history of the organisation cancelling close to 88,000 appointments, including crucial hospital check-ups and surgeries. There is also a possibility of disruption in emergency services as senior doctors are being called upon to fill the gaps. This recent action was a direct consequence of unsuccessful negotiations between the British Medical Association British Medical Association (BMA) and the government leaving numerous junior doctors disappointed due to years of below-inflation pay increases. The demand from the junior doctors is a raise of 35 per cent. The impact of this strike is estimated to cost more than GBP two billion to the NHS. (Nick Triggle, "Junior doctors' strike: Thousands of NHS appointments hit by walkout," BBC News, 28 December 2023)
 
Rural homeless crisis explodes
On 28 December, Deutsche Welle reported on increasing pressure in rural England due to 40 per cent raise in homelessness over the past five years surpassing major cities like London. In towns like Boston, the plight of rough sleepers resonates with rates exceeding those of the capital on a per capita basis. This was fuelled by soaring housing prices, stagnant wages, and a dwindling supply of affordable options, demands immediate action. The UK requires a significant boost in housing availability, a redefined concept of "affordable" aligning with local circumstances and a steadfast commitment to ensuring every individual regardless of being in bustling metropolises or tranquil villages, has a secure roof. ("Homelessness climbs sharply in rural England," Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #710 I 22 December 2023, Friday

Deadly shooting at Prague University

Photo : MICHAL CIZEK/AFP


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

CZECH REPUBLIC
Deadly shooting at Prague University
On 21 December, a gunman, now confirmed dead by the police, killed 14 and wounded 24 at Prague’s Charles University Faculty of Arts. Petr Fiala, Prime Minister, cancelled plans, returning to Prague amid ongoing police operations. Vit Rakusen, Interior Minister, dismissed links to terrorism. European leaders, including Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, and von der Leyen, offered condolences. The White House condemned the “senseless” violence. Police discovered several weapons at the university and confirmed the gunman’s alleged patricide. The incident, rare for the Czech Republic, prompted closures in the Old Town area. (“Czech Republic: Fatal shooting at Prague university,” Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2023)

FRANCE
Paris Olympics: Security plans for opening ceremony
On 21 December, Emmanuel Macron, President, assured readiness for potential changes in the 2024 Olympic opening due to security concerns. The ceremony, initially set along the Seine River, might relocate, considering past terror incidents. Macron outlined backup plans in case of crises, emphasising preparedness for any scenario. The unique opening, a departure from traditional stadium settings, is aimed to engage thousands along Paris’ riverbanks. Despite heightened security after recent attacks, organizers affirmed their commitment to the Seine-centric event. (“Macron says Paris ready to deal with Olympic terror threat,” Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2023)

Emmanuel Macron defends controversial immigration bill
On 20 December, in response to the immigration bill, Macron defended, calling it imperfect yet reflective of public desire. The parliament vote on 19 December marked a compromise between Macron’s centrists and conservatives, leading to the bill’s passage in the National Assembly. Critics claimed it mirrors far-right demands for “national preference,” strengthening deportation and social welfare restrictions for foreigners. Aurelien Rousseau, Health Minister, resigned in opposition. The bill, labelled a betrayal of France’s values, gained 349-186 votes. Gerald Darmanin, Interior Minister, backed the bill, citing tougher actions against foreign offenders and provisions for migrant workers. The bill awaits final enactment after Constitutional Council review. (Sylvie Corbet and Elaine Ganley, “France’s Macron defends divisive immigration bill and denies it marks tilt by government to right,” Associated Press, 21 December 2023)

POLAND
New government dismisses public media leaders
On 21 December, Euronews reported that a recent coalition government (led by the Law and Justice party) ousted public media leadership, affecting TV, radio, and news agencies. Programming ceased abruptly, with TVP stations like TVP Info halting operations. The move aimed to break the former administration’s alleged political media control, leaving employees uncertain about their future. (Magdalena Chodownik, “New Polish government sacks governing bodies of public media,” Euronews, 21 December 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Signs pioneering financial services pact with the UK
On 21 December, Jeremy Hunt, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer hailed the unprecedented financial services agreement as a signal of openness for deals that bolster competition. This mutual recognition deal permitted UK financial firms, spanning banking and asset management sectors, to operate in Switzerland, respecting UK regulatory standards. The reciprocal applies to Switzerland entities in the UK. Hunt emphasised the agreement’s basis on the “deference principle,” bypassing the need for UK-Swiss regulatory alignment. Notably, the UK insurance firms sought to gain exclusive access to Switzerland, exempt from certain incoming regulations. The accord is aimed to instil certainty, facilitating planning and investment for both countries’ firms, potentially setting a blueprint for future mutual recognition agreements. (“UK signs first of its kind financial services agreement with Switzerland,” GOV.UK, 21 December 2023; Stefan Boscia, “UK and Switzerland strike ‘first of its kind’ financial services deal,” POLITICO, 21 December 2023)

THE UK
Eurotunnel strike resolves
On 21 December, union workers unexpectedly halted Eurotunnel traffic between France and the UK due to a wage dispute. The staff of Getlink, the company that operates the Eurotunnel connecting both countries, initiated the walkout, disrupting Eurostar, car, and freight services. The blockade affected routes to London, Amsterdam, and Brussels. Workers protested a EUR 1,000 year-end bonus, demanding triple the amount. The strike, ending in the evening after fruitful negotiations, caused travel chaos ahead of Christmas. Services resumed at night with passenger travel set on 22 December. Clement Beaune, Transport Minister, criticized the strike, urging an immediate resolution. (“Eurotunnel strike halting traffic between France, UK ends,” Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2023)

TURKEY
Airstrikes hit Kurdish militant targets in Iraq
On 20 December, Turkey’s warplanes conducted fresh airstrikes in northern Iraq against suspected PKK locations. 14 targets in Gara, Hakourk, and Qandil regions were hit, destroying caves, shelters, and warehouses allegedly used by militants. Ankara is aimed to combat the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) presence in Iraq, an issue addressed in high-level security talks between Turkey and Iraq officials in Ankara. The PKK, Baghdad, and Kurdish authorities in Iraq have not responded. The PKK, labelled a terrorist group by the US and EU, has long been a concern for Turkey. The conflict, ongoing since 1984, has claimed many lives. (“Turkey says its warplanes have hit suspected Kurdish militant targets in northern Iraq,” Associated Press, 21 December 2023)

REGIONAL
EU backs Super League, alarms football establishment
On 21 December, the EU’s Court of Justice ruled that the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) violated competition laws by curbing the Super League. It signalled a potential shift in football governance. France and Italy are aiming to legislate against such projects in January. The court found UEFA’s rules on new interclub projects and player restrictions unlawful, stirring concerns over football's 70-year governance. Real Madrid and Barcelona, supported by A22 Sports, aim to reshape European football despite challenges. A22 Sports CEO welcomed the ruling, emphasising club freedom. The court highlighted flaws in UEFA’s rules but recognized subsequent amendments. UEFA defended its revised rules, while the European Club Association pledged cooperation with FIFA and UEFA. Football Supporters Europe vowed to continue opposing the Super League. (Ali Walker and Varg Folkman, “Football’s Super League gets win at EU top court,” POLITICO, 21 December 2023; Matt Ford and Andreas Sten-Ziemons, “European Super League: EU court rules UEFA ban 'unlawful',” Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #708 I 20 December 2023, Wednesday

UK's HMS Diamond joins task force safeguarding Red Sea shipping

Photo : GOV.UK


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
The National Assembly passes stricter migration controls
On 19 December, legislation enforcing tighter migration controls passed in the National Assembly despite opposition. The bill by Emmanuel Macron, President garnered support from conservatives after far-right backing, easing the need for their votes. Gerald Darmanin, Interior Minister, expressed relief as the majority vote ensured independence from far-right support. The bill, aimed at influencing upcoming elections, faced amendments, toughening rules and extending residency requirements. It weakened residency options, delayed benefits access, introduced quotas, and made France’s citizenship harder for immigrants’ children. (“France passes controversial immigration bill,” Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2023; Ido Vock, “French MPs pass controversial immigration reform,” BBC, 20 December 2023)

IRELAND
Commits to European Wind Charter for energy targets
On 19 December, Ireland, represented by Eamon Ryan, Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications, joined the European Wind Charter. The move aimed to enhance conditions for wind energy goals, both onshore and offshore. This pact has sought to cover energy plans, auctions, regulations, and equipment, aligned with the EU wind power action plan. Ireland pledged to achieve nine gigawatts onshore by 2030, supporting Ireland’s climate action plan. Ireland also backed targets for 2030 and beyond, emphasising offshore wind, aligning with the North Seas Energy Cooperation’s long-term plans. Ryan highlighted wind energy’s pivotal role in decarbonization efforts and emphasized the need for community engagement to ensure inclusive benefits from wind energy. (“Ireland signs European Wind Charter and makes pledge to deliver on wind energy targets,” gov.ie, 19 December 2023)

ITALY
Pakistani parents gets life sentence for “honour killing” of their child
On 20 December, BBC reported on Italy’s court life sentence to a couple in Pakistan for murdering, Saman Abbas, their 18-year-old daughter, who refused an arranged marriage. Abbas was found dead at a northern Italy’s farmhouse 18 months after her disappearance in November 2022. Shabbar Abbas, her father, extradited from Pakistan, maintained innocence, stating he never considered harming her. Nazia Shaheen, her mother, convicted in absence, is believed to be hiding in Pakistan. The case spotlighted “honour killings,” rooted in tribal customs. Abbas’s relationship triggered fury, leading to her murder. (Kelly Ng, “Italian court jails parents for life over 'honour killing' of Pakistani teen,” BBC, 20 December 2023)

SERBIA
Ruling party wins amid allegations of rigging
On 19 December, Euronews reported that the Progressive Party, led by Aleksandar Vucic, President, secured the parliamentary vote. However, the Belgrade local election faced allegations of theft, prompting demands for a re-vote. Protests surged as opposition members claimed irregularities and fraud, insisting on challenging the city election results. Vucic, defending the election’s fairness, urged calm. International observers noted procedural flaws despite the smooth conduct, mentioning overcrowding and voting irregularities. Vucic’s tenure, spanning a decade, faced criticism for limiting democratic freedoms, allowing corruption, and clashes with opposition accusing the EU of overlooking democratic deficits for regional stability. The ruling party clinched a substantial parliamentary majority, pending final counts. (“Serbian opposition leaders and protesters rally in Belgrade claiming election was rigged,” Euronews, 19 December 2023)

SWEDEN
Court upholds conviction of Iran’s nationals for 1988 executions
On 19 December, Svea Court of Appeals affirmed Hamid Nouri’s life sentence for “grave breaches of international humanitarian law and murder.” The move is for his role in the 1988 mass execution of 5,000 political dissidents in Iran. Robert Green, a Judge, supported the prosecutor’s strong case. Nouri remained the sole defendant in the killings, maintaining his innocence despite consistent claims. The trial, under universal jurisdiction, marked hope for justice beyond borders, though it infuriates Tehran. (“Sweden upholds life sentence in Iran prison executions case,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2023)
 
THE UK
HMS Diamond joins task force safeguarding Red Sea shipping
On 19 December, Royal Navy’s HMS Diamond, a third ship of the Type-45 joined Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international coalition safeguarding merchant ships in the Red Sea. The move came in response to escalating Houthi attacks. Three US destroyers and a France’s warship are part of the task force, focusing on ensuring free navigation and countering threats to global trade and life. The increased Houthi assaults, including ballistic missiles, disrupted major trade routes, affecting companies like Maersk and BP. Defence Ministers globally discussed the operation’s launch, emphasizing its impact on global trade. Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary, emphasised the need for an international solution to counter these threats to global economy and security. He said: “These illegal attacks are an unacceptable threat to the global economy, undermining regional security and are threatening to drive up fuel prices.” (“HMS Diamond joins new international task force to protect shipping in the Red Sea,” GOV.UK, 19 December 2023; Joshua Posaner, Laura kayali, Tommaso Lecca and Caleb Larson, “European vessels to police Red Sea as part of US task force,” POLITICO, 19 December 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
US and EU agree to suspend trade war until March 2025
On 19 December, BBC reported that the US and EU have halted their trade war, suspending tariffs on steel, aluminum, and retaliatory goods until March 2025. Originally imposed during the presidency of Donald Trump, former US’ President, on national security grounds, they were paused under the administration of Joe Biden, US President. It was aimed to maintain EU relations. The deferment supports Biden’s trade stance domestically, pivotal for states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. Tariffs were a result of conflicting steel imports, with the EU-US dispute ongoing despite the WTO ruling against the measures. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions from steel production are part of ongoing negotiations for a global agreement on fair trade practices. (Jonathan Josephs, “Europe and US extend trade truce over Trump tariffs,” BBC, 19 December 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #707 I 19 December 2023, Tuesday

Volcano erupts in Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland

Photo : Civil Protection of Iceland/REUTERS


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

GERMANY
Defence minister signs deal to deploys troops in Lithuania by 2027
On 18 December, Boris Pistorius, Defence Minister, signed a deal with Arvydas Anušauskas, Lithuania’s Defence Minister for the deployment, aimed at leading NATO’s eastern defence amid the Ukraine conflict. The deal involves a move to station 4,800 troops 100 kilometers from the Russia’s border. Pistorius said: “The speed of the project clearly shows that Germany understood the new security reality.”  Despite challenges, like awaiting tank replacements, the brigade is slated for deployment in Lithuania. According to Roderich Kiesewetter, a politician from the Christian Democrats, Germany’s plan to deploy elements in 2024 and complete the brigade by 2027 seems to be uncertain due to inflation impacting financial reserves. Lithuania is expected to invest 0.3 per cent of its GDP for infrastructure. Pistorius emphasized sustainability beyond 2027, highlighting the need for long-term capabilities. The deployment aligns with Germany’s commitment to protect NATO allies and fortify its military readiness in the face of potential threats from Russia. (Caleb Larson, “Germany puts its troops in the line of fire if Putin attacks NATO,” POLITICO, 18 December 2023)

ICELAND
Volcano erupts in Reykjanes Peninsula
On 19 December, a volcanic eruption took place in the Reykjanes peninsula following weeks of seismic activity. The Icelandic Meteorological Office confirmed the event after preceded by minor earthquake. Katrin Jakobsdottir, Prime Minister, expressed concern on the significant impact of the eruption. Vidir Reynisson, head of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, highlighted the swift magma flow, deeming it substantial for the region. He cautioned against visiting the area, stressing on its danger. Gudni Thorlacius Johannesson, President, prioritized safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Reykjavik’s international airport remains operational, advising travelers to monitor flight statuses. (“Icelandic volcano erupts after weeks of buildup,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2023)

THE UK
Adobe abandons USD 20 billion Figma takeover over regulatory hurdles
On 18 December, Adobe withdrew its planned USD 20 billion acquisition of design software rival Figma. According to Dylan Field: “Despite thousands of hours spent with regulators around the world detailing differences between our businesses, our products, and the markets we serve, we no longer see a path toward regulatory approval of the deal.” The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority demanded for a sale of one of the Figma’s unit that would undermine the deal’s core purpose. The European Commission warned about eradicating current and future competition between the companies, potentially impacting consumer prices and choices. Margrethe Vestager, EU Competition Chief, stressed the need to safeguard future competition in digital markets. Despite falling below typical revenue thresholds, the deal underwent scrutiny under the Article 22 procedure, highlighting its potential issues. Adobe is set to pay Figma a USD one billion termination fee due to the scrapped agreement. (Giovanna Faggionato, “Adobe abandons Figma takeover after Brussels, UK opposition,” POLITICO, 18 December 2023)

TURKEY
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Budapest visit strengthens ties with Hungary
On 19 December, a visit by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President, to Budapest marked the 100th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Hungary. Erdogan emphasized on enhancing defence and energy collaborations, aiming to boost annual bilateral trade from USD four billion to USD six billion. Victor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister expressed Hungary’s eagerness for mutual success with Turkey in the 21st century. The visit formalized an “advanced strategic partnership.” (“Erdogan and Orban pledge closer ties in Budapest meeting,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Delegation meets objectives at World Radiocommunication Conference
On 18 December, the Federal Council reported that the World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 (WRC) in Dubai finalized crucial decisions on future radio spectrum usage. The conference concluded on 15 December. Across four weeks of intense negotiations, agreements were secured concerning mobile communications, satellites, aviation, and scientific applications. The delegation effectively fulfilled the Federal Council’s outlined objectives. (“World Radiocommunication Conference 2023: Swiss delegation achieved its goals,” The Federal Council, 18 December 2023)

REGIONAL
Euro 7 deal entails stricter rules on road vehicle emissions
On 18 December, agreement reached by the European Parliament and Council on Euro 7 rules to curtail emissions from road transport vehicles: cars, vans, buses, trucks, and trailers. The agreement is aimed to promote cleaner mobility while keeping vehicle prices affordable. The new regulation enhanced exhaust emission limits for buses and trucks in labs and real driving conditions. It introduced stringent brake particle emission caps and mandated improved battery durability for electric and hybrid vehicles. It also proposed an Environmental Vehicle Passport for emission data at registration. Alexandr Vondra, European Conservatives and Reformists Group reporter, emphasized balancing environmental goals and manufacturers’ interests. Approval is pending before enforcement in 30-48 months, targeting cleaner and more durable vehicles. (“Euro 7: Deal on new EU rules to reduce road transport emissions,” European Parliament, 18 December 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #700 | 12 December 2023, Tuesday

Immigration bill defeat sparks crisis within France's government

Photo : AFP/BBC


In Brief
Rishika Yadav

ESTONIA
Human rights study reveals concerns on free speech shift
On 11 December, ERR News reported that a study by Estonia’s Institute of Human Rights (EIHR) indicated a shift in human rights concerns over a decade. Initially, social equality dominated worries, but now, freedom of speech tops the list for 25 per cent of respondents, tripling in a decade. Karmen Turk, a lawyer, emphasized the changing communication landscape, attributing anxiety to international business control over online discourse. Aet Kukk, executive manager of EIHR, highlighted responsibility in speech and referenced ongoing hate speech legislation, where half supported regulation but half feared a threat to free speech. The study reflected a middle-ground sentiment on regulating hate speech while preserving free expression. (Kadri Põlendik, “Study: Freedom of speech perceived as biggest human rights concern in Estonia,” ERR News, 11 December 2023)

FRANCE
Immigration bill defeat sparks crisis within government
On 12 December, BBC reported that opposition parties, spanning far right to left, united against a key immigration bill, rejecting it in parliament. The left found the measures too stringent, while the right deemed them insufficiently robust. Gérald Darmanin, Interior Minister, offered resignation, aligned with the draft law but faced refusal from Emmanuel Macron, President. The bill aimed to control immigration and enhance migrant integration but faced criticism for facilitating expulsions and restricting family reunification. Disparate factions, including far-right and far-left, aligned to defeat the government’s proposal. Macron’s party lost its majority, causing frequent parliamentary vote setbacks. Options now include redrafting or withdrawal as a special measure to pass without a vote is not viable for this version. (Ido Vock, “Emmanuel Macron's government in crisis after migration bill defeat,” BBC, 12 December 2023)

LATVIA
Government mandate bio waste separation
On 12 December, ENG.LSM.Iv reported that starting from 2024, Latvia sought to introduce a directive for segregating biodegradable waste, primarily food waste, necessitating waste managers. The move has taken place to arrange collection and processing. A new bio waste processing facility at the “Daibe” landfill site in Cēsis district was established to handle this. ZAAO, a waste management company, adopted Germany’s technology for organic waste recycling, aiming for higher efficiency. Though operational in test mode, the plant is generating gas for energy production and technical compost. Encouraged by a successful pilot project involving apartment residents in Cēsis, the company anticipated citizen cooperation in the upcoming mandatory bio waste separation from 01 January 2024. This initiative followed Latvia’s PET bottle deposit system implemented in 2022. (Gunta Matisone, “New treatment site ready for new rules on bio-waste,” ENG.LSM.Iv, 12 December 2023)

POLAND
Donald Tusk elected as prime minister after success in forming coalition
On 11 December, the recent parliamentary elections saw Donald Tusk, leader of the centrist party, Civic Platform, elected as prime minister. It was followed by a coalition victory involving left-wing to moderately conservative parties. Tusk’s ascent followed the rejection of Mateusz Morawiecki’s acting Prime Minister by the parliament. It took place despite Morawiecki’s nomination after the Law and Justice party (PiS) lost its majority, Tusk’s appointment became possible as the largest opposition coalition formed an alliance. Tusk, focusing on pro-EU policies, is aimed to repair strained ties with the EU, seeking to unlock frozen EU funds amidst ongoing disputes over Poland’s rule of law. (“Polish parliament elects Donald Tusk as prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 11 December 2023)

TURKEY
Super Lig football suspended after referee attack
On 11 December, the Turkey’s Football Federation (TFF) halted the Super Lig after Faruk Koca, Ankaragucu’s president, punched Halil Umut Meler, the referee, post-match. Koca’s attack, triggered by Rizespor’s late equalizer, left Meler with a black eye. Fans stormed the field, further assaulting the referee, although the assailants were unidentified. The TFF condemned the “inhumane attack” and vowed severe punishment for those involved. The league’s indefinite suspension was announced by the Board of Directors. Ali Yerlikaya, Interior Minister, issued a detention order for Koca, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President, denounced the violence, asserting sports should embrace peace, not hostility. (“Turkey suspends top-flight football after referee attack,” Deutsche Welle, 12 December 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU launches security and defence initiative in Gulf of Guinea
On 11 December, the EU Council approved a two-year EU security and defence initiative supporting West Africa’s Gulf of Guinea countries. It has endorsed civilian and military operation plans. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, highlighted the initiative’s aim to tackle Sahel’s security spillover, providing tailored support to Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin. It focused on bolstering these countries’ security forces to combat terrorism in northern regions while enhancing rule of law, governance, and civil-military trust. This initiative, developed in coordination with the four countries, combined military-civilian expertise, complementing EU assistance to Benin and Ghana’s armed forces. Previous Council decisions established the initiative in Ghana, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. (“Gulf of Guinea: Council launches an EU Security and Defence Initiative,” European Council, 11 December 2023)

Climate summit draft falls short of fossil fuel phaseout
On 11 December, expectations of ending fossil fuels waned as the COP 28’s draft proposed reducing rather than eliminating them. Demands for phasing out coal, oil, and gas went unmet, leading to discontent among environmental groups, the US, the EU, and vulnerable island countries. Disagreements arose over language—some opposed “phaseout” or “phase-down” of specific energy sources. Negotiations extended into the summit’s final hours amidst widespread disappointment. Despite pledges for renewable energy and efficiency measures, the draft lacked a decisive stance on fossil fuels. Discontent was palpable, with former Al Gore, US Vice President, calling COP 28 on the brink of failure. (Karl Mathiesen, “Greens erupt as fossil fuel ‘phaseout’ is dropped from proposed climate deal,” POLITICO, 11 December 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #699 | 11 December 2023, Monday

EU concludes agreement on dependable AI regulation with the Artificial Intelligence Act

Photo : EU/Lukasz Kobus


In Brief
Rishika Yadav

BULGARIA
Diversifies gas supply pipeline with Serbia
On 10 December, Serbia opened a pipeline to Bulgaria, reducing reliance on Russia’s gas. The link has offered access to Azerbaijan’s gas, aiming to bolster energy security. Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s President, Rumen Radev, Bulgaria’s President, and Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s President, attended the opening ceremony. The pipeline has sought to connect Novi Iskar in Bulgaria to Nis in Serbia, providing access to Azerbaijan’s gas and Greece’s LNG terminal. A recent deal with Azerbaijan secured 400 million cubic metres annually from 2024. The EU supported the project financially. Previously reliant on Russia’s gas, Serbia’s move marked a shift amid EU efforts to reduce dependency on Russia’s energy sources. (“Serbia opens pipeline to Bulgaria to diversify gas supplies,” Deutsche Welle, 10 December 2023)

FRANCE
Macron criticized for religious gesture in Elysee Palace
On 09 December, BBC reported that Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, faced backlash for participating in a Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony inside the Elysee Palace. It violated the country’s secular principles. The event, attended by Haim Korsia, Chief Rabbi, marked the start of Hanukkah and Macron’s receipt of an anti-Semitism award. The move drew criticism from various political factions, considering it a breach of secularism. Macron defended the gesture, asserting it was in the “spirit of the Republic and of concord.” Critics view it as part of Macron’s inconsistent stance on the Gaza conflict, attempting to balance relations with Israel and Arab countries within France’s diverse population. (Hugh Schofield, “France’s Emmanuel Macron buffeted from all sides in row over secularism,” BBC, 09 December 2023)

IRELAND
Minister for Agriculture spotlights methane mitigation efforts at COP28
On 10 December, Charlie McConalogue T.D., Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, highlighted methane reduction strategies at COP28’s US Chamber of Commerce event in Dubai. Addressing Ireland’s emission targets, he stressed the need to curtail methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. His panel participation featured Ireland’s advancements in genetically selecting low methane-emitting cattle, constituting 73 per cent of the country’s agricultural emissions. McConalogue showcased Ireland’s robust investment in climate research, notably in feed additives to reduce methane. He underscored collaborations with New Zealand and global initiatives like “AIM for Climate.” Ireland’s sustainable food systems were also showcased as a global model, emphasizing science and innovation for future food security and environmental preservation. (“Minister McConalogue focuses on Methane Mitigation at COP 28,” gov.ie, 10 December 2023)

GEORGIA
President rallies for EU membership ahead of crucial decision
On 09 December, Salome Zourabichivili, Georgia’s President, joined the Tbilisi march as the EU prepared to decide on Georgia’s candidacy status. Hundreds gathered, drumming and waving flags along Rustaveli Avenue. Rally organizers stressed unity in Georgia’s path to the EU. Zourabichivili hailed the event as a manifestation of the people’s desire for Europe. The EU’s impending decision on 15 December follows Georgia’s application post-Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. EU membership could fortify Georgia’s defence, especially after the 2008 conflict with Russia. Despite popular support, the ruling party’s remarks align with the stance of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, though they claim commitment to EU and NATO aspirations. (“Georgia rallies for EU membership ahead of key decision,” Deutsche Welle, 09 December 2023)

REGIONAL
EU concludes agreement on dependable AI regulation with the Artificial Intelligence Act
On 09 December, Members of the European Parliament finalized a landmark deal with the European Council, achieving a consensus on the Artificial Intelligence Act. This legislation is aimed to ensure AI in Europe complies with fundamental rights, bolsters innovation, and protects democracy. The Act has sought to ban harmful AI applications like social scoring and manipulative systems, implementing strict rules for high-risk AI. Safeguards for law enforcement use of biometric identification systems were also agreed upon. Businesses failing to comply may face fines up to seven per cent of their global turnover. Co-rapporteurs highlighted the Act’s significance in upholding rights while supporting innovation, with next steps involving formal adoption by Parliament and Council. (“Artificial Intelligence Act: deal on comprehensive rules for trustworthy AI,” European Parliament, 09 December 2023; “AI: EU agrees landmark deal on regulation of artificial intelligence,” BBC, 09 November 2023)

Global poll shows decline in democracy perception
On 11 December, POLITICO reported that a cross-country poll, spanning seven Western countries, noted a decline in democratic satisfaction over the past five years. Majority opinion across the US, France, and the UK reflected concerns about worsening democracy, echoed in Croatia, Italy, Poland, and Sweden. Dissatisfaction prevailed, with many perceiving the system as biased toward the affluent and urging “radical change.” EU sentiment varied: while support existed, dissatisfaction lingered regarding EU-level democracy, lacking perceived influence over decisions. The survey highlighted challenges for EU leaders ahead of the European Parliament elections, emphasizing the need to align public sentiment with EU institutional processes for the forthcoming polls. (Nicholas Vinocur, “Western democracies face crisis of confidence ahead of big votes, poll shows,” POLITICO, 11 December 2023)


30 November 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #688

Joint Expeditionary Force reacts to rising tensions in Baltic Sea

Photo : Antonia Sehlstedt/AP


EM in Brief 
By Rishika Yadav

SPAIN
Member of European Parliament threatens to withdraw support to Sanchez
On 29 November, Carles Puigdemont, Member of European Parliament warned to withdraw his party support from Pedro Sanchez government, if negotiations with Catalan independence lack progress. Instead, Junts Party would collaborate with the Popular Party (PP). This implies Sanchez would the support to hold the coalition government. Puigdemont stated considering a no-confidence vote if an agreement with PP on a pro-independence Prime Minister is reached. However, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, leader of PP, the opposition rejected the alliance, citing illegality and constitutional issues. (Jakob Hanke Vela, “Puigdemont warns he’s willing to topple Spanish PM Sánchez,” POLITICO, 29 November 2023)

SWEDEN
Parliament approves new nuclear power legislation
On 29 November, the Riksdag endorsed the government’s proposal for additional nuclear power in Sweden. The new legislative changes allowed the construction of reactors in locations beyond Forsmark, Ringhals, and Oskarshamn. Furthermore, the law permitted more than ten reactors to operate simultaneously. The Riksdag agreed with the government’s assessment that nuclear energy, offering fossil-free electricity, remains pivotal in Sweden’s energy mix. The move comes in response to an increasing electricity demand and the imperative to phase out fossil fuels, especially for climate reasons. These amendments will take effect on 01 January 2024. (“New nuclear power in Sweden,” SVERIGES RIKSDAG, 29 November 2023)

Turkey pledges swift NATO ratification
On 29 November, Tobias Billstrom, Foreign Minister of Sweden assured Turkey’s decision to ratify its bid to Sweden’s membership to NATO sooner. It was followed by discussions with Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s Foreign Minister. Billstrom emphasized the expectation for the process to conclude, expressing eagerness for its completion without presumptions. The Grand National Assembly of Turkey postponed voting on Sweden’s accession bid. This delay occurred without any new conditions being presented, as confirmed by Billstrom, who reiterated Sweden’s completion of the necessary requirements for NATO membership. Hungary is also expected to ratifiy Sweden’s alliance membership. (Stuart Lau, “Sweden says Turkey pledges to ratify its NATO bid ‘within weeks’,” POLITICO, 29 November 2023)

THE UK
Ursula von der Leyen urges young britons to reverse Brexit
On 29 November, Ursula von der Leyen, EU President, urged for a return of the UK back to the EU, highlighting that young people must rectify the Brexit error. She appreciated the Windsor Agreement’s positive impact on Northern Ireland, a deal between the UK and the EU, addressing post-Brexit trade and border issues, especially concerning Northern Ireland. The agreement sought to facilitate trade while preventing a hard border with Ireland. A spokesperson for Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, rejected the notion of Brexit needing fixing, emphasizing Sunak’s commitment to its benefits. Although polling revealed public support for rejoining the EU, Westminster (Parliament) remains cautious. The Labour Party, in the lead for the next government, has sought close EU ties but firmly opposes rejoining the single market or restoring freedom of movement. (Jamil Anderlini and Jon Stone, “EU’s von der Leyen urges youth to reverse Brexit,” POLITICO, 29 November 2023)

Joint Expeditionary Force reacts to rising tensions in Baltic Sea
On 29 November, Euronews reported on ten Northern European countries decision to form the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) on adopting of a “defence clause.” The countries include, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. This enables reinforcement of maritime and air capabilities to safeguard vital underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The move comes due to several attacks observed lately. They seeked to bolster security in response to escalating incidents, including recent disruptions to crucial infrastructure.  According to Pal Jonson, Sweden’s defence minister: “Around twenty warships will be deployed in the Baltic Sea but also in areas of the North Atlantic to take into account the security situation and better protect crucial underwater infrastructure.” (“Ten European countries bolster military presence in Baltic Sea,” Euronews, 29 November 2023)

REGIONAL
European Parliament faces far-right risk amid migration crisis
On 29 November, Manfred Weber, head of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), cautioned for a shift in Europe to far-right if the present government fail to manage migration influx. He stressed the need to reduce irregular arrivals, with over 331,000 incidents in 2023, predominantly in the Central Mediterranean route. The Dutch elections reflected a shift towards far-right views, raising concerns for the upcoming European polls. Weber urged swift conclusion of the new pact on Migration and Asylum, emphasizing its critical role in appeasing skeptical voters. The pact, striving for a balanced EU-wide policy, has sought to undergo final negotiations. Weber also highlighted tensions within the EPP concerning its hardened stance on migration’s “external dimension,” especially its cooperation with countries like Tunisia, while affirming its necessity in curbing illegal migration. (Jorge Liboreiro, “EU countries need to curb irregular migration to prevent far-right surge, says Manfred Weber,” Euronews, 29 November 2023)

Europe’s inflation decline: Impact on consumers and businesses
On 29 November, Euronews reported that after enduring high inflation for two years, Europe observed a potential downward trajectory in consumer price pressures. Despite this, the economic growth appeared sluggish, as noted in the European Commission’s Autumn Forecast, signaling growth rates below three per cent. In Belgium, while energy prices stabilized, food costs continued rising, affecting customers and businesses adversely. Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner, predicted that increased wages will offset inflation, fostering consumption and potentially boosting growth in 2024. However, concerns have persisted about energy costs for companies like Etex, spurring investments in efficient technologies amid rising expenses and decreased construction demand. The evolving energy situation remained uncertain due to geopolitical conflicts and inflation’s intricate balance, risking stagflation. (Fanny Gauret, “Eurozone inflation drops to two-year low, but Europeans are still feeling the pinch,” Euronews, 29 November 2023)


28 November 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #686

Unions protests in Czech over austerity measures

Photo : AP Photo/ Petr David Josek


EM in Brief 
By Rishika Yadav

CZECH REPUBLIC
Unions protest over austerity measures
On 27 November, labour unions organized widespread strikes opposing the austerity measures. They demanded higher funding for education and healthcare while denouncing pension system changes. The measures included citizens facing increased taxes on alcohol, medicine, and corporate profits as part of the government’s plan to curb a growing deficit. Petr Fiala, the Prime Minister, defended the measures, emphasizing their necessity to control state indebtedness. Massive demonstrations in Prague attracted thousands, with unions vowing more protests if negotiations are not considered. Schools and companies participated in strikes, marking the largest protests since the country’s inception in 1993. The economic package, facing opposition from Andrej Babis, former Prime Minister, is aimed to slash the deficit by billions in 2024. (“Czech Republic sees 'biggest protest in its history' over austerity measures,” Euronews 27 November 2023)

FRANCE
Senate advances VAT measures for Airbnb-like platforms
On 27 November, Euronews reported on Senate’s endorsement for value-added tax (VAT) applications on platforms like Airbnb, amending the Finance Bill for 2024. The move came despite government opposition. The move targeted rental accommodations, aiming to rectify competition imbalances within the hotel industry. It challenged the exemption of furnished tourist rentals from VAT, particularly impacting Airbnb, seen as having an unfair advantage. Max Brisson, the Senator, highlighted the need for fair competition. The government can still reject the measure in the ongoing process, while theThe National Assembly is expected to review similar regulations in the coming week. (“France senate implements stricter taxation measures on Airbnb,” Euronews, 27 November 2023)

GREECE
Sunak calls off meeting over  statement on Elgin Marbles
On 27 November, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s Prime Minister, criticized Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, for cancelling their meeting two hours ahead of the schedule. It was seen as a reaction to Mitsotakis’  demand for the return of the Parthenon Marbles which is claimed to have originally from Greece. Talks, including recent discussions with Keir Starmer, Party leader of the Labour Party, sought a potential loan arrangement for the sculptures. Despite UK’s resistance in permanently returning the Marbles, Mitsotakis lamented the lack of progress. Greece officials affirmed efforts to address the issue with the British Museum. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Greek PM slams Sunak as row over Elgin Marbles escalates,” POLITICO, 27 November 2023)

SLOVENIA
Government announces to refund the COVID-19 fines
On 27 November, those who were subject to COVID-19 restrictions close to60,000 faced  penalties. The government announced a legislation which will refund nearly EUR six million which was collected as fines from Slovenians. The  move comes after formerprime minister Robert Golob pledged to refund. Critics stated the penality as unconstitutional. (Guy Delauney, “Slovenia Covid: Thousands to get lockdown fine refunds,” BBC, 27 November 2023)

SPAIN
Government commits EUR 1.4 billion to protect Donana National Park
On 27 November, Spain allocated a EUR 1.4 billion investment to safeguard the Donana national park from drying up. Teresa Ribera, Ecological Transition Minister, said that it was aimed to halt water-intensive crop cultivation by incentivizing farmers around the park. Overexploited aquifers have harmed the wetlands, prompting efforts to alleviate pressure on this unique ecosystem. Financial incentives will encourage farmers to halt cultivation or switch to dry, ecological farming. Plans to expand irrigation near Donana were cancelled to relieve aquifer stress. Donana, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, hosts vital migratory bird habitats threatened by agricultural impacts, climate change, and drought. (“Spain announces a €1.4 billion deal to help protect Doñana wetlands from drought,” Euronews 27 November 2023)

SWEDEN
Far-right leader’s Mosque comment sparks criticism
On 27 November, Ulf Kristersson, the Prime Minister, denounced the remarks made by Jimmie Akesson, leader of Sweden Democrats (SD), emphasizing freedom of religion. Tensions rose after the Quran burnings, leading to strained relations with Middle Eastern countries. Akesson, along with other party members, made controversial statements on 25 November, advocating for the demolition of mosques spreading anti-Swedish sentiments and prompting criticism. Magdalena Andersson, former Prime Minister, urged official condemnation and dismissal of party members from ministerial roles. Akesson softened his stance afterward, suggesting closure rather than demolition of extremist-preaching mosques. Akesson’s column in Aftonbladet defended actions, rejecting international criticism and emphasized the need to address extremism. Past incidents of Quran burning and disinformation campaigns already have strained Sweden’s international ties. (“Sweden’s prime minister condemns far-right call to demolish mosques,” Euronews, 27 November 2023)

Tesla wins lawsuit against Swedish transport agency over licence plate delivery dispute
On 27 November, the court ruled in favour of Tesla, mandating licence plate delivery within seven days or facing a fine. The Transport Agency is accused of impeding access due to a postal worker strike, an allegation denied by the agency. Tesla filed a lawsuit against the state over the strike hindering licence plate deliveries. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, criticized the situation as ‘insane,’ considering the impact on new car use in Sweden. The legal battle unfolded amidst Tesla’s resistance to collective wage agreements for its mechanics in Sweden, reflecting similar union concerns in Germany’s Brandenburg plant. (Pierre Emmanuel Ngendakumana, “Tesla wins court backing in suit over blocked license plates in Sweden,” POLITICO, 27 November 2023; “Tesla sues Sweden over postal strike,” Deutsche Welle, 27 November 2023)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak woos investors at Global Summit
On 27 November, Sunak at the Global Investment Summit, hailed the UK’s GBP 29.5 billion funding for innovative ventures. He showcased the country as a prime investment hub. Big commitments from firms like Microsoft, BioNTech, IFM Investors, and Iberdrola are expected to generate 12,000 new jobs countrywide. Sunak promoted the Conservative Party’s “levelling up” agenda, focusing on broadening investments across the UK. The Summit, hosting over 200 global executives, is aimed to celebrate UK innovation and attract more investment, despite the current economic challenges marked by lower growth forecasts. Sunak emphasized on tax cuts and innovation as pivotal to the UK’s appeal for investors. (“Prime Minister's keynote speech at the Global Investment Summit: 27 November 2023,” GOV.UK, 27 November 2023; “UK welcomes almost £30bn of investment ahead of Global Summit,” Euronews, 27 November 2023)

REGIONAL
EU approves unified disability card for cross-border ease
On 27 November, the EU Council agreed on a directive for a unified European disability card and parking permit, simplifying travel for persons with disabilities across member states. This card ensures equal access to privileges like reduced fees, priority access, and reserved parking during short stays. National authorities will issue physical and digital cards, recognized EU-wide as proof of disability. The directive emphasized on multilingual cards and QR codes for fraud prevention. Additionally, the parking card will replace existing permits for cross-border mobility within five years. Efforts focus on awareness, data protection, and aligning with the EU’s disability rights strategy for 2021-2030. Negotiations with the European Parliament are anticipated in early 2024. (“European disability card: travelling across the EU to become easier for persons with disabilities,” European Council, 27 November 2023)

EU Council passes Data Act for fair data access
On 27 November, the EU Council approved the Data Act, ensuring equitable access and usage of data. Jose Luis Escriva, Spain’s Minister of Digital Transformation, highlighted its potential in advancing the digital age, boosting economic growth and a unified data market across Europe. The act mandated manufacturers and service providers to grant users access to data generated by their products or services, promoting sharing with third parties. It is aimed to stimulate competition, foster innovation, and facilitate data portability for individuals and businesses. The law introduced trade secret protections, measures against unfair data-sharing contracts, and provisions for emergency data access. (“Data Act: Council adopts new law on fair access to and use of data,” European Council, 27 November 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU approves free trade deal with New Zealand
On 27 November, the European Council approved the EU-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. It paved the way for its enactment once New Zealand completes its procedures, potentially in early 2024. Valued at nearly EUR 9.1 billion in 2022, bilateral trade is expected to surge by 30 per cent, with EU exports potentially increasing by EUR 4.5 billion annually. This deal is aimed to eliminate tariffs on key exports, broadening market access for services, and bolster investment. Additionally, it protects renowned EU products and encourages digital trade, sustainability, and gender equality. The agreement also ensures sanctions for severe violations of core labour principles of the Paris Agreement. (“EU-New Zealand: Council gives final green light to free trade agreement,” European Council, 27 November 2023)


24 November 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #682

Finland launches offshore wind auction

Photo : Finnish Government


EM in Brief 
By Rishika Yadav

FINLAND
Ministry of Finance proposed 2024 budget amendment
On 23 November, the Ministry of Finance submitted a proposal to Parliament, to amend the 2024 budget. Changes involved backing Ukraine with EUR 95.7 million for Defence Forces’ material procurement and increasing Finnfund’s capital by EUR 25 million for Ukraine’s investments. Funding adjustments are aimed to aid Finland’s businesses in Ukraine’s reconstruction. A restructuring plan was proposed to ease the burden on local governments by delaying central government transfer reductions. Additionally, appropriations were recommended for adjusting housing allowance, social assistance, and family grants. Other allocations included investments in railways, language services, and culture. Revenue is estimated to increase by EUR 76 million, while net government borrowing to decrease by EUR 124 million. (“Government proposes amendments to 2024 budget proposal,” Finnish Government, 23 November 2023)

Launches offshore wind auction
On 23 November, ministries of agriculture, economic affairs and employment and the environment passed a resolution to initiate auctions for offshore wind power sites in public water regions. These areas, managed by Metsahallitus, will undergo leasing and project rights sale for renewable energy development, with lease terms up to 50 years.  Sari Essayah, Finland’s spokesperson highlighted the move’s impact on clean energy transition and its economic benefits, expecting a third increase in Finland’s electricity production. The 860 square kilometer sites could generate 7,500 MW, involving about 500 turbines, potentially attracting EUR three to four billion investment. The state and municipalities will benefit financially, and the move aligns with Metsahallitus’s statutory duties. (“Metsähallitus launches auctions concerning large-scale offshore wind power projects,” Finnish Government, 23 November 2023)

Frontex reinforces border amidst Russia’s accusations
On 23 November, Frontex, the EU border agency, intends to send 50 officers and equipment to aid Finland’s border control amid allegations of Russia fueling an immigrant surge. With most eastern border crossings closing until 23 December, Frontex’s bolstering is aimed to address escalating tensions. Hans Leijtens, Frontex’s Executive Director, emphasized the EU’s unified stance against hybrid threats, extending beyond logistics. Russia criticized Finland’s abrupt closure of checkpoints, calling it provocative and lacking prior consultation. Finland’s border guard reported 415 individuals seeking asylum with insufficient documents, suspecting a foreign state’s involvement in illegal border crossings. (Pierre Emmanuel Ngendakumana, “EU to deploy more guards to bolster Finland’s border control efforts,” POLITICO, 23 November 2023; “EU deploys agents to help Finland bolster Russian border,” Deutsche Welle, 23 November 2023)

IRELAND
Paschal Donohoe launches 2023-2027 Open Data Strategy
On 23 November, Paschal Donohoe, the Minister for Public Expenditure, introduced the 2023-2027 Open Data Strategy. The strategy is aimed to distribute and facilitate access to public body data for the next five years freely. The framework outlined goals for data publishers, platform development, and users, with over 15,000 datasets and nearly 150 publishers on the Open Data Portal (data.gov.ie), the strategy envisioned easy access to high-quality government data, emphasizing trust and innovation. During the COVID-19 crisis, Open Covid data played a crucial role in disseminating essential information, aiding public adherence to safety measures. Donohoe highlighted Open Data’s significance in enhancing public services, transparency, and fostering trust in governance. Ireland’s leadership in Open Data management continues to evolve, aiming for optimal data utilization. (“Minister Donohoe Launches New Open Data Strategy,” gov.ie, 23 November 2023)

Dublin knife attack triggers far-right fueled violence
On 23 November, Dublin witnessed violent protests following a knife attack injuring five, including three children at Parnell Square East. A police car and tram were set ablaze as officers were assaulted in the city center. Reports suggested anti-immigrant slogans were chanted during the chaos. Drew Harris, Police Commissioner attributed the unrest to a “hooligan faction driven by far-right ideology.” Helen McEntee, Minister of Justice urged calm, condemning assaults on law enforcement. The stabbings occurred near a school, leaving three seriously injured and two with lesser wounds. Authorities have arrested a man in connection with the incident, initially ruled non-terror-related but now under comprehensive scrutiny for motives. (Paul Dallison, “Violent Dublin protests blamed on ‘far-right ideology’ after 5 injured in knife attack,” POLITICO, 23 November 2023; “Five people wounded, including three children, in Dublin knife attack,” Euronews, 23 November 2023)

NORWAY
Hydrogen chain feasibility study published to connect with Germany
On 23 November, the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy released the joint feasibility study on a hydrogen value chain connecting Norway and Germany. The report confirmed the technical feasibility of transporting substantial hydrogen quantities between the countries, given specific conditions. Terje Aasland, Minister of Petroleum and Energy commended state-owned company, Gassco, and Deutsche Energie Agentur (DENA), Germany’s Energy Agency for leading the study. Commissioned by both governments, the industry-driven study evaluated the potential of the hydrogen chain’s viability between both countries, focusing on market readiness, regulatory aspects, and technology. (“Feasibility study on a hydrogen value chain between Norway and Germany,” Government.no, 23 November 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Geert Wilders’ party dominates polls; coalition talks await
On 23 November, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) secured 37 of 150 parliamentary seats in the general elections. Wilders, known for anti-immigration and anti-EU views, is aimed to form a government with the centre and left parties, the opposition labour and green parties have denied joining with PVV. Coalition negotiations among multiple parties is expected to last for many months. Mark Rutte, Prime Minister remains caretaker until a new government is formed. Far-right party leaders from Hungary, France, and Italy congratulated Wilders. (“Geert Wilders: Far-right populist wins big in Dutch election,” Deutsche Welle, 23 November 2023)

THE UK
Strengthen defence ties with Turkey
On 23 November, the UK and Turkey, reinforced their commitment to bolster stability, security, and prosperity through closer collaboration. Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary and Yasar Guler, Turkey’s Minister of National Defence, signed a Statement of Intent, emphasizing increased cooperation in defence. The agreement paves way for joint activities, including enhanced engagement in defence industries, potential joint training exercises in the Mediterranean, and security support in North Africa and the Middle East. Both countries reiterated support for Ukraine. Discussions also included on Turkey’s role in facilitating the export of Ukraine’s grain and the need for de-escalation in the Middle East. (“UK and Türkiye to boost stability, security and prosperity,” GOV.UK, 23 November 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU condemns North Korea’s satellite launch
On 23 November, the EU condemned North Korea’s military satellite launch on 21 November using ballistic missile technology and called it a direct threat to global peace. The EU urged the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to halt such provocative actions, urging UN members to encourage meaningful dialogue for denuclearization. It called on the DPRK and Russia to comply with UN sanctions, refrain from military exchanges, and condemned any arms transfers linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Emphasizing the need for DPRK’s adherence to UNSC resolutions, it advocated for returning to Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) compliance and peaceful initiatives for stability in the Korean peninsula, supporting South Korea and Japan. (“DPRK/North Korea: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the satellite launch,” European Council, 23 November 2023)


23 November 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #681

G7 countries condemns North Korea’s ballistic missile launch

Photo : GOV.UK


EM in Brief 
By Rishika Yadav

FINLAND
Closes border points amid migrant influx from Russia
On 22 November, the Ministry of the Interior announced  Finland’s decision to shut down the Kuusamo, Salla, and Vartius border crossings. In August, around 700 individuals entered Finland applying for asylum from the Middle East and Africa tried to enter from Russia. Concrete barriers now reinforce the border to manage undocumented migration. The Kremlin denied the claims, emphasizing readiness for mutual resolution. (“Finland to close more border crossing points,” Finnish Government, 22 November 2023; “Finland closes all but one of its borders with Russia,” Euronews, 22 November 2023)

THE UK
Strengthens digital government collaboration with South Korea
On 22 November, the UK and South Korea signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to bolster government digital services, focusing on AI and sharing best practices. Minister for Implementation Alex Burghart met with Sang-min Lee, South Korea’s Minister of the Interior, advancing the digital partnership. The Government Digital Service (GDS) is aimed to leverage AI in public services, ensuring mutual advancements. The collaboration is aimed for responsible technological use, equal access, and a skilled digital workforce. Amidst the state visit by Yoon Suk Yeol, agreements on security, tech, trade, and condemnations of North Korea’s ballistic missile launch were highlighted. Both countries aimed for stronger economic ties and aligned global stances. (“UK and Republic of Korea join forces to step up cooperation on digital services and AI,” GOV.UK, 22 November 2023; “PM meeting with President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea: 22 November 2023,” GOV.UK, 22 November 2023)

REGIONAL
European Parliament members push for EU reforms after Future of Europe Conference
On 22 November, the Members of European Parliament (MEPs) proposed reforms to bolster EU capabilities and citizen involvement amid challenges. Suggestions included a more efficient Council decision-making process via majority voting. It also included empowering citizens’ legislative initiatives, and restructuring the Commission, granting the President electoral selection. Emphasis was on Council transparency and increased citizen influence through participatory mechanisms. Proposed areas for expanded EU authority covered environmental, health, industry, and education sectors. The report, backed by a majority vote, is aimed to meet citizens’ demand for a more democratic, effective EU. It called for Treaty amendments, urging the Council to promptly address the proposals. Additionally, Spain’s Presidency plans to present the propositions to the European Council in December. (“Future of the EU: Parliament’s proposals to amend the Treaties,” European Parliament, 22 November 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU Parliament approves landmark trade deal with New Zealand
On 22 November, the European Parliament endorsed a groundbreaking Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand. The agreement eliminated 100 per cent of New Zealand’s tariffs upon entry into force and lifted 98.5 per cent of EU tariffs in seven years. The deal protects EU geographical indications, sensitive agricultural goods, and upholds Paris Agreement and labor standards. Bilateral trade is expected to surge by 30 per cent, with EU investments in New Zealand likely rising by 80 per cent. Formal approval from member states is anticipated, paving the way for the agreement’s ratification by New Zealand, possibly in mid-2024. The FTA reflects the EU’s strategy of strengthening ties with like-minded countries. (Antonia Zimmermann and Camille Gijs, “European lawmakers give green light to ‘model’ NZ trade deal,” POLITICO, 22 November 2023; “Parliament approves EU-New Zealand free trade agreement,” European Parliament, 22 November 2023)

G7 condemns North Korea’s ballistic missile launch
On 22 November, G7 foreign ministers strongly condemned North Korea’s recent ballistic missile launch, deeming it a severe threat to regional and global peace. They emphasized the breach of UNSC resolutions by any missile technology use, urging complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the abandonment of North Korea’s weapons programs. The G7 demanded a united international response via the UNSC and stressed compliance with resolutions. Concerns mounted over arms transfers between North Korea and Russia, urging immediate cessation. The statement highlighted grave concerns over technology transfers potentially exacerbating global instability. The G7 reiterated the call for diplomacy and meaningful dialogue while denouncing North Korea’s human rights violations. (“North Korea missile launch: G7 foreign ministers’ statement,” GOV.UK, 22 November 2023)


22 November 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #680

Vladimir Putin accuses US at BRICS summit

Photo : Sputnik / Sergey Guneev


EM in Brief 
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
EU urges fiscal adjustment after spending warnings
On 21 November, POLITICO reported on European Commission request to France, Belgium, Finland, and Croatia to align their 2024 spending plans with EU debt and deficit regulations. This move comes as the four-year suspension of these rules concludes in January. Valdis Dombrovskis, EU’s Commission Vice President, cited concerns over rising public expenditure and inadequate cuts in energy support in France’s budget proposal. Ignoring warnings could trigger an “Excess Deficit Procedure,” pressuring governments to curb spending. Amidst economic fragility and global tensions, France’s breach of the three per cent GDP deficit limit and expected debt rise to 110 per cent in 2024 could prompt EU intervention, despite claims of minimal adjustment needed. (Bjarke Smith-Meyer, Gregorio Sorgi and Giorgio Leali, “EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans,” POLITICO, 21 November 2023)

GERMANY
Deal over gas export and renewable investment with Nigeria
On 21 November, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria's President, announced a bilateral agreement between Nigeria and Germany. According to the deal, Nigeria is set to supply 850,000 tons of liquified natural gas (LNG) annually, eventually reaching 1.2 million tons. Johannes Schuetze, head of Germany’s gas importer, lauded the deal diversifying Germany’s gas sources. This historic pact, signed at the G20 Compact with Africa conference, included Germany’s USD 500 million investment in Nigeria’s renewable energy projects, aiming to integrate more people into the formal economy. Discussions are underway for Siemens’ involvement in Nigeria’s electricity infrastructure overhaul and railway expansion, initiatives spearheaded by Tinubu to attract foreign investment. (“Nigeria and Germany agree deal on gas and renewables,” Deutsche Welle, 21 November 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Elections on high-stakes as polls begin
On 22 November, POLITICO reported on the opening for the Dutch election where four leaders, Geert Wilders, Frans Timmermans, Pieter Omtzigt, and Dilan Yeşilgöz compete against each other. Polls show Wilders’ far-right party is gaining momentum, potentially rivalling the ruling People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). However, 63 per cent of voters remained undecided on 21 November, intensifying the unpredictable outcome. Wilders’ anti-Islam stance persists, though he shifted focus to healthcare and security. Yeşilgöz opened to working with Wilders, while Omtzigt refuses collaboration due to anti-Islam policies. Timmermans aims to rally progressive voters against the far right, while the potential of a Wilders-led party, the Party for Freedom (PVV), worries the Green-Left alliance supporters. Their alliances may determine the next government. (Eline Schaart, “Dutch election is wide open as voting begins,” POLITICO, 22 November 2023)

RUSSIA
Putin accuses US at BRICS summit
On 21 November, BRICS leaders convened an urgent virtual summit addressing the Middle East turmoil, where President Vladimir Putin accused the US of monopolizing peace efforts. Amid US-Israel opposition to a Gaza ceasefire, Putin highlighted Washington’s hindrance of international mediators like Russia, the UN, and the EU. The BRICS meeting indicated a shift, signifying the group’s interest in resolving global political issues beyond economic matters, observed Dr. Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia’s political scientist. Despite Saudi-led efforts backed by Russia and China for a Gaza ceasefire, they faced US opposition. Arab-Muslim countries lauded Putin’s stance, aligning with Arab objectives. The Gaza crisis has affected the US image negatively, highlighting growing divisions in Washington over the conflict. The US’s differing stance from Muslim-Arab visions has tainted its image amidst worsening Gaza conditions. The contention over a Gaza ceasefire persists, with the US at odds with the Muslim-Arab world’s advocacy. (Ekateria Blinova, “Putin's Address at BRICS Summit on Gaza Aligned With Arab-Muslim Vision – Mideast Experts,” SPUTNIK, 21 November 2023)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak faces political challenges ahead of fiscal statement
On 22 November, POLITICO reported on waning of Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister political fortunes as major events meant to boost his image fell short. The high stakes for the Autumn Statement suggest the government is likely to prioritize tax cuts. With increased pressure and Tory (Conservative Party) dissent, Sunak aims to unveil tax reductions, addressing the UK’s high tax-GDP ratio post-pandemic. Despite discontent, tax cuts are expected to be announced as part of a pre-election strategy. However, the move may alleviate tensions but would not fully address the underlying concerns in the party. (Esther Webber, “Rishi Sunak hits the tax cut button as his luck runs out,” POLITICO, 22 November 2023)


16 November 2023, Thursday | 16 November 2023, Thursday

Spain's prime minister defends amnesty for Catalan separatists

Photo : Joseph Wilson/Associated Press


EM in Brief
By Rishika Yadav

AUSTRIA
Sky Shield initiative to strengthens security
On 15 November, Bundeskanzleramt Germany’s Federal Chancellery reported on Austria’s top diplomats' comments on the European Sky Shield initiative. This initiative supported by Germany aims to boost Austria’s security structure through missiles protection and air space security. Karl Nehammer, Austria’s Chancellor hailed it as pivotal for Austria’s security, emphasizing its innovation and role in defending. The initiative, aims to address short- and long-range missile threats including drones. Nehammer clarified the defensive nature, highlighting the country’s autonomy in deciding targets. Vice Chancellor Werner Kogler stressed how Austria who add value to European cooperation’s in creating a common defence field with cost-effectiveness. Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner emphasized Sky Shield’s historic significance as fortifying Austria’s airspace security against aerial threats. (“Chancellor Nehammer: Sky Shield is a milestone for Austrian security policy,” Bundeskanzleramt, 15 November 2023)

FRANCE
Judges' issues warrant for Syria President over war crimes
On 15 November, The New York Times reported on issue of international arrest warrant by investigative judges of France for Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s President. They accused him of “complicity in war crimes and crimes against humanity” for using of chemical weapon on civilians. The warrant was issued to Assad’s brother and two other Syrian senior officials. Earlier, efforts to bring Assad to the International Criminal Court have been obstructed. This move marked a significant step by a national court against a sitting president for suspected war crimes. (Marlise Simons, “French Judges Issue Warrant for Assad in Syria War Crimes Case,” The New York Times, 15 November 2023; “France issues arrest warrant for Syria's Assad — reports,” Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2023)

ICELAND
Reykjavik Global Forum fosters gender equality discussion
On 15 November, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on the Reykjavik Global Forum drew 500 and more participants from 80 countries held during13-14 November. The forum serves as a crucial platform for gender equality discussions. Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir emphasized sustained efforts for gender parity, citing recent women’s strikes as evidence of ongoing challenges in pay equity and addressing gender-based violence. Bjarni Benediktsson, foreign minister stressed on men’s pivotal role in advancing equality. (“Reykjavík Global Forum,” Government of Iceland, 15 November 2023)

ITALY
Ambiguity persists over EU law in Asylum Protocol with Albania
On 15 November, Ylva Johansson, European Commissioner, mentioned that the deal between Italy and Albania for handling asylum requests wass not under EU law. Under the deal, Italy plans to process up to 36,000 asylum applications annually in Albania for migrants rescued at sea. This has raised concerns about whether EU laws will apply in these centres outside Italy, and if any legal actions can be taken if rules are violated there. There were also questions about transferring migrants from Italy’s waters and if the deal aligns with EU regulations. Amnesty International  warned over prolonged detention and issues for asylum seekers outside Italy’s legal oversight. (Jorge Liboreiro, “Italy-Albania migration deal falls 'outside' EU law, says Commissioner Ylva Johansson,” Euronews, 15 November 2023)

SLOVAKIA
New Government faces policy and legal controversies
On 14 November, Robert Fico, Slovakia’s Prime Minister proposed a tax plan aimed at aiding pensioners and low-income groups while nominations to the government hinted a different agenda. It raised concerns about shielding allies from legal issues. Fico’s cabinet include politicians who were previously charged, sparked debates about political motivations and revenge. Ongoing court cases from the past government’s term involved alleged ties to organized crime. Fico’s return after being ousted in 2018 due to protests over a journalist’s murder prompts scrutiny,  the cabinet reshuffle, legal battles against oligarchs, and swift personnel changes indicate possibilities for clashes within the ruling coalition. (Tom Nicholson and Ketrin Jochecova, “New Slovak coalition embraces revenge, radicalism,” POLITICO, 15 November 2023)

SPAIN
Prime Minister defends Amnesty for Catalan separatists
On 15 November, Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s acting prime minister defended the amnesty deal for Catalonia’s separatists in parliament. Street protests emerged in Madrid and Barcelona against the move. This move comes ahead of seeking endorsement for a new government. Sanchez secured smaller parties’ support to reestablish his minority coalition. The amnesty is aimed to pardon Catalan separatists involved in the region’s 2017 illegal secession bid, triggering controversy. Sanchez emphasized unity while facing criticism from the opposition, was accused of betraying the country followed by concerns raised by the judges and the EU on the legality of the amnesty. The separatists are expected to demand for an authorized independence referendum for Catalonia, signalling a challenge ahead. (“Spain's leader defends amnesty deal for Catalan separatists ahead of vote on new government,” Euronews, 15 November 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Strengthen ties with France
On 15 November, during the state visit, Emmanuel Macron, France’s President affirming France’s commitment to deepen bilateral relations with Switzerland. Signing two memorandums of understanding, both leaders discussed on European policy, cooperation agreements, and energy supply collaboration. Both sides addressed global challenges, highlighting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and promoting dialogue through the European Political Community forum. Plans for the visit’s second day included engagements in Lausanne and Geneva, focusing on European unification archives. They emphasized on the agenda to visit the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), highlighting robust research cooperation. (“Switzerland and France reaffirm and deepen relations during President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit,” The Federal Council, 15 November 2023)


15 November 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #673

Rail union announces 20-hour strike in Germany

Photo : Fabian Bimmer/REUTERS


EM in Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FINLAND
Interior ministry to propose border closure over entry of asylum seeker without documents
On 14 November, Finland’s government criticised Russia was allowing asylum seekers to enter Finland without required travel documents. Calling it a “international crime,” Finland’s border service recorded 91 undocumented migrants without visas since August. According to the authorities, the individuals belonged to third countries were transiting through Russia had increased in number in past months. Petteri Orpo, Finland’s Prime Minister highlighted the unfamiliarity of the government over information about the migrants. He said: “The Russian border guard has clearly changed its practice. They allow people to cross the border without valid travel documents.” In response to this, Finland’s interior minister proposed to prepare a draft for border closure to restrict the border crossings and cross-border traffic. (Pierre Emmanuel Ngendakumana, “Finland considers closing border with Russia amid spike in asylum seekers,” POLITICO, 14 November 2023) 
 
GERMANY
Rail union announces 20-hour strike
On 14 November, Deutsche Welle reported on train strike announced by Germany’s rail union. According to the report, Germany’s GDL train drivers union announced a 20-hour warning strike between 15 to 16 November, which is expected to disrupt train services. The main demand of the protestors is salary raise of EUR 555 per month apart of the one-time payment of EUR 3000 to handle inflation. The union also aims to reduce working hours from 38 to 35 hours. Talks between the union and Deutsche Bahn (DB) state owned rail operator began last week and is expected to continue till 16 November. The DB has agreed to increase by 11 per cent and stressed it unwillingness to discuss union’s core demands. Earlier in 2023, the union and the rail operator signed an agreement to increase pay of EUR 410 per month. (“German rail union announces 20-hour train strike,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2023)
 
Federal Statistics Office report increase in insolvency applications
On 14 November, Germany’s Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) published an annual report on increasing insolvency among businesses and individuals in Germany. According to the report, insolvency application rose by 22.4 per cent as of October 2023 which was 19.5 per cent in September 2023. This insolvency application includes, companies under framework of orderly insolvency process and not those which are forced into bankruptcy. Experts stated that despite a weak overall economy, they predict this to be a wave and not a tsunami of bankruptcies. According to chairman of the German Registered Association of Insolvency Administrators (VID), Germany’s state assistance and relaxation of rules on forced insolvency during COVID-19 combined with energy crisis has helped the company afloat, implying normal insolvencies to occur. (“Germany: Number of bankruptcies continues to grow,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2023)
 
ICELAND           
Iceland government prepared for evacuation ahead of seismic activity
On 13 November, Iceland’s meteorological office reported on the higher chances of a volcanic eruption in its southern peninsula. Seismic activity seems to be reduced, but the office still issued warning in Grindavik town which has experienced minor earthquakes resulting in damaged public infrastructure.  Ahead of this, the emergency response team asked the people residing in the town to evacuate on 11 November. The Reykjanes Peninsula is observed to the hotspot of seismic activity of Iceland. In 2021, the lava erupted from fissure in the ground spreading to 500-750 meters in Fagradalsfjall volcanic system. Similarly there were two more eruptions in August 2022 and July 2023. (“Iceland braces for eruption as fissures emerge in Grindavik,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2023)
                              
THE UK
Supreme Court rules government Rwanda plan as unlawful
On 15 November, highlighting the “poor human rights record,” Rwanda’s 100 per cent rejection of asylum claims, and concerns over reliability of Rwanda, Reed ruled the scheme as unlawful. In April 2022, the government announced its plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. In June 2022, the first flight with the asylum seekers scheduled to reach Rwanda was cancelled on European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) intervention. During December 2022 and October 2023, the High Court along with the Supreme Court investigation the case. The High Court ruled the deportation scheme as lawful whereas Court of Appeal ruled it as unlawful resulting to the case proceeding to Supreme Court hearing. In the final ruling of the Supreme Court, Lord Reed stated that unless a country qualifies as a safe country for refoulement and no risk present for those send to Rwanda only then it can be considered safe. (“Rwanda asylum plan unlawful, UK Supreme Court rules,” BBC, 15 November 2023)
 
REGIONAL
European Commission reports stagnation in reducing the gender pay gap
On 14 November, the European Commission reported on the persisting gender pay gap in Europe. According to the report, women earn 13 per cent less than men on an average, similar to 2022, in 2023 for every EUR one earned by a man, a woman earns only 87 cents. Currently the gender pay gap decreased by 2.8 per cent and the commission reiterated: “Equal pay for the same work or work of equal value is one of the founding principles of the EU. It was laid down in the Treaty of Rome in 1957.” Still the progress on eradicating the pay gap has been on slow trail. Earlier to address this, the Commission adopted the Pay Transparency Directive in June 2023 to ensure the employers applied principles of equal pay and allotted EUR 6.1 million to member states to implement the directive. Yet the progress is yet to utilise. (“EU: Gender pay gap still at 13%, commission says,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2023)


14 November 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #672

New government led by Tusk to form government in Poland

Protests emerged against rising antisemitism in Paris; Cameron appointed back as foreign secretary in the UK

Photo : AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Protests emerged against rising antisemitism in Paris
On 12 November, thousands of people gathered in Paris joined by right wing party leader Marine Le Pen against rising antisemitism. Since 07 October, when Hamas attacked Israel killing close to 1200 people, the protests began in France. In response the government has deployed 3,000 police in line with approval from Senate, lower house of parliament and the National Assembly. Elisabeth Borne, France’s Prime Minister called it “This is a vital battle for national cohesion.” According to the report, more than 40 French have been killed in the Hamas attack. Emmanuel Macron, France’s President expressed support for the rally but did not take part, whereas far-left party leader Jean-Luc Melenchon denied to be part of the protest. In Europe, France houses close to 500,000, the largest Jewish Community. (“Tens of thousands march in Paris against antisemitism,” Deutsche Welle, 12 November 2023)
 
NETHERLANDS
Largest climate action protests stagged in Amsterdam
On 12 November, thousands of protestors gathered across Amsterdam demanding for climate action. The protest come 10 days ahead of general elections and as per police report close to 70,000 were part of the rally. Greta Thunberg and EU climate chief Frans Timmermans, were part of the protest, consisting of mostly young. The protests were mainly headed by Extinction Rebellion, Fridays for Future, Oxfam and Greenpeace environmental groups and was seen as the largest ever. Thunberg said: “As a climate justice movement, we have to listen to the voices of those who are being oppressed and those who are fighting for freedom and for justice.” (“Amsterdam hosts large climate protest as elections near,” Deutsche Welle, 12 November 2023)
 
POLAND
New government led by Tusk to form government
On 13 November, Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s Prime Minister resigned as the new government led by Donal Tusk is about to take the post. Andrzej Duda opened the parliamentary session where the members of the parliament took oath and selected the speaker. The Law and Justice Party failed to win without enough votes to gain majority from the coalition partners, whereas the opposition pro-EU alliance comprising of three coalition parties seem united to form government. This means Civic Coalition head Tusk will be selected as candidate for prime minister. (“Poland: PiS government steps down as parliament meets,” Deutsche Welle, 13 November 2023)
 
THE UK
Cameron appointed back as foreign secretary
On 14 November, David Cameron was appointed back as foreign secretary after seven years. On 13 November, Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister met his new cabinet after James Cleverly was switched as home secretary and Suella Braverman was fired after her criticism against the metropolitan police. In his address to the cabinet, Sunak called it “an important week” with latest inflation figures out and court ruling on UK’s Rwanda policy ahead. They also discussed on the war in Ukraine, conflict in Middle East and the need for humanitarian pauses. On the appointment of Cameron, not all in the Conservative Party is satisfied and the opposition called it as a desperate move. (George Wright and Kate Whannel, “David Cameron returns to cabinet table after seven years,” BBC, 14 November 2023)


27 October 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #657

UK's Defence Secretary visits Middle East to bolster regional security

Photo : GOV.UK


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

AUSTRALIA
Urges EU trade deal at G7 meeting
On 26 October, POLITICO reported on Australia push for a trade deal with the EU. It a meeting between Don Farrell, Australian Trade Minister and Valdis Dombrovskis, EU’s trade chief in Japan, they agreed to resolve remaining differences during the G7 trade ministers’ gathering in Osaka. Australia seeks European concessions on agriculture, warning that failure to secure a deal which could result in years of delay due to upcoming European elections. A deal is crucial for Australia’s agricultural sector since it offers a counterbalance to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. For the EU, it means diversifying trade partners and securing access to Australia’s critical minerals. Key hurdles include pricing of raw materials and geographical indications protection. (Camille Gijs and Sarah Anne Aarup, “Australia pushes for EU deal at upcoming trade meeting,” POLITICO, 26 October 2023)

BELGIUM
Tunisia’s man linked to Brussels attack arrested
On 26 October, Belgium authorities detained a 44-year-old Tunisia’s man in connection with the shooting of two Sweden’s soccer fans during a football match in Brussels. The arrest seeks to establish a potential link to the weapon used in the terrorist attack. The suspect faces charges of terrorist murder, attempted terrorist murder, and involvement in a terrorist organization. The shooter, who identified with the Islamic State, was killed by the police. Vincent Van Quickenborne, Belgian Justice Minister, resigned after revealing authorities failed to deport the suspect despite Tunisia’s extradition request in August 2022. (“Belgium charges suspect in connection with Brussels attack,” Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2023)

LITHUANIA
Government moves to revise controversial “Gay Propaganda” law amid EU pressure
On 26 October, Euronews reported that Lithuania’s government has taken steps to amend a contentious law known as the “gay propaganda” law. Critics argue that it restricts information about same-sex marriage and LGBTQI issues, particularly for minors. The law, established in 2009, has sparked debates over its impact on freedom and equality. While it does not explicitly mention the LGBTQ+ community, it has been criticized as homophobic and limiting free expression. The move to amend the law comes after a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) found that it violated the right to free expression. The law was previously used to censor a children’s book featuring same-sex relationships. Despite legal and social discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community in Lithuania, this proposed change has the potential to impact the country’s political landscape. (Joshua Askew, “Lithuania moves to ditch controversial Russian-style 'anti-gay propaganda' law,” Euronews, 26 October 2023)
 
THE UK
Trevelyan addresses affirms commitment to security at South China Sea conference
On 25 October, Minister of State for Indo-Pacific, Anne-Marie Trevelyan delivered a keynote speech at the South China Sea conference in Vietnam. She emphasized the global significance of the region. She marked the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the UK and Vietnam and reaffirmed their commitment to maritime security. The speech highlighted the need for a free and open Indo-Pacific, stability, climate change collaboration, and open communication to prevent escalation. The UK supports the UNCLOS and opposes actions undermining it. The UK pledged to work with ASEAN and offered assistance in areas such as environmental preservation, energy transition, and maritime cooperation. (“Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan gave a keynote speech to South China Sea conference in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,” GOV.UK, 26 October 2023)

Defence Secretary in Middle East to bolster regional security
On 26 October, in an effort to maintain regional stability and protect civilians, Grant Shapps, UK Defence Secretary, embarked on a diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Shapps met with leaders in both countries, collaborating with over 40 countries to ease tensions and prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East. He stressed the importance of working together to prevent suffering and protect innocent families. Discussions in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi centered on deterring escalation and promoting mediation. The UK also delivered 21 tonnes of aid to Palestine’s civilians in Gaza, part of a GBP 30 million humanitarian support package. (“Defence Secretary travels to Middle East on regional security mission,” GOV.UK, 26 October 2023)

Pro-Palestinian protesters block UK arms factory linked to Israelt
On 26 October, amid the ongoing Gaza conflict, over 100 protestors, including teachers, academics, and doctors, blockaded an arms factory in the UK. The factory is connected to Israel’s weaponry supply. The protestors denounced the alleged use of the UK’s arms by Israel. The factory, owned by Instro Precision, a subsidiary of Israel’s Elbit Systems, specializes in military-grade electro-optical equipment. The demonstrators called for an end to complicity in Israel’s actions, highlighting the UK’s significant role as a weapons supplier. Campaign Against the Arms Trade (CAAT) estimated these sales at GBP 336 million since 2016, expressing concerns about transparency. Meanwhile, vocal support to Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, for Israel in its conflict with Hamas faced criticism from the protesters. (Joshua Askew, “Pro-Palestinian protesters blockade Israel-linked arms factory in UK,” Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2023)


26 October 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #656

Oil spill threatens Baltic Sea after ferry runs aground

Photo : Johan Nilsson / TT / TT NEWS AGENCY / AFP


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

GERMANY
Terry Reintke announces candidacy for Greens’ EU election campaign
On 25 October, Member of European Parliament (MEP), Terry Reintke, announced her candidacy for leading the Greens European election campaign. She said her focus is on climate justice, fair wages, and democracy in Europe. Reintke, already a co-president of the Greens group in the Parliament, aims to bring Europeans together for these goals. The European Greens will choose two Spitzenkandidaten, at least one being a woman, in Lyon, France, in February. They argue that this process democratizes EU elections, ensuring greater transparency in selecting top positions, like the European Commission presidency. Polls suggest the Greens may not replicate their 2019 success in the upcoming elections. (Eddy Wax, “German MEP in running to lead Greens’ EU election campaign,” POLITICO, 25 October 2023)

Cabinet aims to ease deportations of unsuccessful asylum-seekers
On 25 October, the German Cabinet approved legislation aimed at streamlining the deportation process for unsuccessful asylum-seekers. If endorsed by parliament, this legislation will extend pre-deportation detention from ten to 28 days; expedite the deportation of individuals linked to criminal organizations. It will also grant authorities the power to conduct residential searches for identity verification, and, in some cases, remove the obligation for advance notice of deportations. The move comes as Germany grapples with a significant influx of refugees and asylum-seekers due to the Ukraine war and ongoing migration challenges. Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the need to carry out deportations on a larger scale. (“New German legislation aims to make it easier to deport asylum seekers,” Euronews, 25 October 2023)

IRELAND
Heritage Ireland 2030 Summit focuses on expertise and skills for safeguarding heritage
On 25 October, the Heritage Ireland 2030 Summit was held. The importance of enhancing expertise and skills in Ireland’s heritage sector was a central theme. Over 250 attendees, including heritage leaders, community groups, and government representatives, discussed the preservation of Ireland’s built, archaeological, and natural heritage. Malcolm Noonan TD, Minister of State for Nature, Heritage, and Electoral Reform, emphasized the significance of capacity building through the Heritage Department’s grant schemes. He further added that these schemes play a crucial role in strengthening the expertise and skills of heritage and conservation practitioners, along with safeguarding historic buildings and monuments. The event also highlighted successful initiatives and recent developments in the heritage sector. (“Renewed focus on expertise and skills to safeguard Ireland’s heritage at Heritage Ireland 2030 summit,” gov.ie, 25 October 2023)

ITALY
EU sues former MEP over EUR 250,000 debt from fraud probe
On 25 October, POLITICO reported that Crescenzio Rivellini, a former European Parliament member from Italy, is refusing to repay over EUR 250,000. It is public money and he is accused of being misappropriated. An investigation by the EU’s anti-fraud office found that Rivellini funneled funds from his office budget. He sent the funds to a company owned by his former parliamentary assistant and romantic partner, which was not declared to Parliament, violating conflict-of-interest rules. Rivellini has launched a lawsuit against the Parliament to avoid repaying the money. Despite previous appeals, senior MEPs unanimously dismissed his case earlier in 2022. The Parliament has also started withholding part of his pension. (Eddy Wax and Gregorio Sorgi, “Former European parliamentarian fights to avoid paying back €250K after fraud probe,” POLITICO, 25 October 2023)

NORWAY
Ghana’s Genebank joins Svalbard Global Seed Vault as 100th depositor
On 25 October, Ghana’s Plant Genetic Resources Research Institute contributed seeds to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, becoming the 100th depositor. The deposit included crucial food crops like maize, rice, eggplant, and cowpea, securing the country’s agricultural diversity. This initiative aids global food security, with over 1.2 million seed samples preserved in the world’s largest crop diversity collection. (“Ghana genebank becomes the 100th depositor to Svalbard Global Seed Vault,” Government.no, 25 October 2023)

POLAND
Donald Tusk aims to revive European ties and unlock COVID-19 funds
On 25 October, Donald Tusk, the opposition leader from Civic Platform (KO) party, expressed his commitment to restoring Poland’s place on the European stage. He made further commitments to access EUR 35 billion in COVID-19 recovery funds during his visit to Brussels. Tusk’s Civic Platform and opposition parties secured a majority in the recent elections, potentially making him Poland’s next prime minister. This change is expected to improve EU-Warsaw relations strained during the previous government’s rule. Tusk and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, discussed various issues, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict, recovery funds, and democratic values. The ongoing dispute over the rule of law has hindered fund disbursement. (Jorge Liboreiro, “Donald Tusk vows to bring Poland back to the 'European stage' and unlock COVID-19 recovery funds,” Euronews, 25 October 2023)

SLOVAKIA
President appoints new coalition government led by Robert Fico
On 25 October, President Zuzana Caputova, appointed a new coalition government led by populist Robert Fico, who previously served as Prime Minister. The coalition has a slim majority of 79 seats in the 150-member parliament and includes the far-right Slovak National Party. Fico has promised to end military aid for Ukraine, but some analysts believe he would not change course immediately. Fico will attend an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, with Ukraine aid likely on the agenda. The largest opposition party, Progressive Slovakia, has 32 seats and is led by Caputova. (“Slovakia forms coalition government with pro-Russia party,” Deutsche Welle, 25 October 2023)

SWEDEN
Oil spill threatens Baltic Sea after ferry runs aground
On 22 October, a passenger ferry, the Marco Polo, ran aground south of Karlshamn, causing a large oil spill in the Baltic Sea. The vessel had deviated from its usual route before grounding, leading to a slick of fuel in the sea. Sweden’s coast guard is launching a criminal investigation into the incident. The accident released a slick of fuel into the Baltic Sea, and the oil reached the coast. A preliminary investigation has been opened for violations of maritime legislation. Authorities and the ferry’s operator, TT-Line, are assessing the damage, with no risk of the ship sinking. (Rebecca Ann Hughes, “‘Two cubic metres of oil’: Swedish coastguard rushing to clean up ferry fuel leak,” Euronews, 25 October 2023)

THE UK
Spy agencies warns of political threats posed by AI Systems
On 25 October, British intelligence agencies warned that generative artificial intelligence (AI) systems could pose a significant threat to political systems, warning of manipulation and deception of populations by AI-generated content. A government paper examined the near-term risks of AI until 2025, pointing to digital risks such as cybercrime and hacking, particularly concerning AI’s potential negative impact. However, he emphasized the need to address associated risks and ensure safety while benefiting from AI’s economic growth and problem-solving capabilities. (Andrew Mcdonald, “British spy agencies warn of AI threat to democracy,” POLITICO, 25 October 2023)

REGIONAL
Amazon introduces European Sovereign Cloud for enhanced data privacy
On 25 October, Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced that it is launching the AWS European Sovereign Cloud in Europe to adhere to stringent EU regulations. This separate cloud, based in Europe, ensures data sovereignty, security, and compliance with 143 standards. AWS is collaborating with European authorities to meet data residency and operational autonomy requirements. Germany will host the first AWS Region within this cloud, managed solely by EU-resident AWS employees. The move comes as companies seek to address concerns over data privacy and security in the wake of the EU’s invalidated Privacy Shield agreement. (“Amazon rolls out new independent cloud for Europe,” Euronews, 25 October 2023)


25 October 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #655

Cargo ships collide off coast in Germany

Photo : Christopher F. Schuetze


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

GERMANY
Cargo ships collide off coast
On 24 October, a collision between two cargo ships off the North Sea coast left one dead and four missing. The UK-flagged Verity, carrying steel from Germany to the UK, collided with the Bahamian Polesie. Two of Verity’s crew members were rescued, but the ship sank. Search efforts, including divers, are ongoing. The cause of the collision is unclear. None of the 22 crew members on Polesie were injured. Rescue crews are working under challenging conditions with limited visibility and strong currents. A cruise ship also assisted in the search. (“One dead after ships collide in North Sea,” BBC, 24 October 2023; Christopher F. Schuetze, “British Freighter Sinks in Fatal North Sea Collision,” The New York Times, 24 October 2023)

POLAND
Opposition seeks to form new government
On 24 October, Poland’s three major opposition parties united to create a coalition and replace the current Law and Justice (PiS) government. The names of these three opposition parties are: Third Way, The Left and Civic Coalition. They have requested President Andrzej Duda’s permission to form a new government. The coalition, led by former PM Donald Tusk, holds 248 seats in the 460-member lower house. Despite PiS winning the largest share of seats in the October election, it may struggle to secure the needed majority. The opposition urged Duda to expedite the process and highlighted their readiness to govern. Duda will start meetings with political parties, potentially affecting the government formation timeline. (Wojciech Kosc, “Poland’s opposition proposes forming new government,” POLITICO, 24 October 2023)

RUSSIA
Expands railroads to China as trade grows
On 24 October, RT reported that Russia is investing in railway corridors from Kemerovo and Krasnoyarsk to strengthen economic ties with China. The North-Siberian railway will link Europe and Asia, while a second route through the Republic of Tyva will provide direct access to Beijing and Tianjin. Feasibility studies and investment assessments are expected by 2025. The move comes as Russia and China see surging trade flows, deepening economic ties, and growing cargo flows between the two countries. (“Russia planning two new railroads to China,” RT, 24 October 2023)

SLOVAKIA
Robert Fico to resume office as Prime Minister
On 24 October, POLITICO reported Zuzana Caputova, President  decision to appoint Robert Fico as the new prime minister, marking his fourth term. He resigned in 2018 due to mass protests related to the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak. Fico’s return comes after a political shakeup involving climate-change denier Rudolf Huliak. The Party of European Socialists suspended Fico’s Smer party over this move. Despite controversy, the government is set to address issues at the European Council meeting in Brussels. (Ketrin Jochecova, “Robert Fico to become Slovakia’s new prime minister,” POLITICO, 24 October 2023)

SPAIN
Socialists and far-left Sumar coalition forms government pact
On 24 October, Socialist Party, led by Pedro Sanchez, signed an agreement with the far-left Sumar coalition to establish a coalition government. The pact outlined social measures, such as job cut regulations, minimum wage increases, and reduced working hours without salary reductions. Sanchez still needs the support of smaller regional parties for a parliamentary majority, particularly the Catalan separatist Junts group and the Republican Left of Catalonia. Failure to secure this by 27 November could trigger new elections on 14 January, 2024. (Nicolas Camut, “Spanish socialists strike coalition deal with far-left Sumar alliance,” POLITICO, 24 October 2023)

REGIONAL
EU council signs agreement to limit Baltic Sea catch for 2024
On 24 October, fisheries ministers from the EU reached a political agreement on catch limits (TACs) and quotas for the most commercially significant Baltic Sea fish stocks in 2024. The agreement aligned with scientific advice and Common Fisheries Policy objectives. It reduced TACs for Western herring, Eastern cod, and Western cod due to low biomass. It decreased TACs for herring in the Gulf of Bothnia and Central herring to support stock recovery, and increased TAC for salmon in the Gulf of Finland. It has continued to have fishing opportunities for plaice while accounting for cod by-catch and it lowered TACs for Riga herring, main basin salmon, and sprat due to stock conditions. The decision will be formally adopted soon. (“Baltic Sea: Council agrees catch limits for 2024,” European Council, 24 October 2023)

EU urged to accelerate emission reductions in agriculture
On 24 October, Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate commissioner, called for increased efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in agriculture. The EU made a three per cent reduction in emissions in 2022, totaling a 32.5 per cent reduction from 1990 levels. The 2030 target is 55 per cent. Hoekstra emphasized the need for substantial progress in cutting agricultural emissions, acknowledging its sensitivity but stating it is essential for achieving climate targets. He also highlighted the slow progress in the building and transport sectors and urged the expansion of natural carbon sinks like forests. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies was recommended for a cleaner energy transition. (Zia Weise, “Step up emissions cuts in agriculture, says EU climate chief,” POLITICO, 24 October 2023)


24 October 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #654

2023 Global Ireland Summit to strengthen global presence

EU and Central Asia affirm partnership in ministerial meeting; Women stage protest in Iceland

Photo : Irish Foreign Ministry


EM In Brief

FINLAND
China’s ship under scrutiny in Baltic Sea cable damage investigation
On 23 October, Euronews reported that China has been cautioned by Finland and Estonia as an investigation into sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea is ongoing. A Hong Kong-registered vessel, the Newnew Polar Bear, was in the vicinity of damaged pipelines and cables. Authorities have described the damage as caused by “external mechanical force,” not an explosion. China has called for an “objective, fair, and professional” investigation, while Moscow denies involvement. Sweden also reported damage to an undersea telecommunications cable in the same area. (“China cautions Finland and Estonia over pipeline 'sabotage' investigation,” Euronews, 23 October 2023)

FRANCE
Government sends weapons to Armenia amid concerns of Azerbaijan conflict
On 23 October, France provided military equipment, including air defence systems to Armenia. The move came amid fears that Azerbaijan might launch further attacks after its victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is looking to reduce its reliance on Russia for protection. The Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu expressed France’s commitment to Armenia’s defence. Armenia has also signed contracts with Thales and Safran for defence equipment and expressed its gratitude for France’s support. Tensions persist, as Azerbaijan conducts military exercises near the Iran’s border. Russia, Turkey, and Iran held talks with Armenia and Azerbaijan to prevent outside interference in the region. (Laura Kayali and Gabriel Gavin, “France sends weapons to Armenia amid fears of new conflict with Azerbaijan,” POLITICO, 23 October 2023)

GERMANY
Sahra Wagenknecht launches new left-wing party
On 23 October, Sahra Wagenknecht, a prominent leftist politician, has announced plans to establish a new political party. The move came to potentially draw votes away from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance - for Reason and Fairness” combines left-wing economic policies. It also maintains a restrictive stance on migration and opposes current climate change measures, sanctions against Russia, and German arms supplies to Ukraine. The new party aims to be launched by January, with Wagenknecht’s positions appealing to voters disillusioned with mainstream parties. Her move could endanger the existing Left Party, with which she has severed ties. (“New left-wing German political party headed by Sahra Wagenknecht could draw votes from far-right AfD,” Euronews, 23 October 2023)

ICELAND
Women stage protest for gender pay gap
On 23 October, BBC reported that Iceland’s women, including Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir, are staging a women’s day off in protest of the gender pay gap and gender-based violence on 24 October. The strike will impact fields where women constitute the majority, such as healthcare and education. It is Iceland’s first full-day women’s strike since 1975 when around 90 per cent of the female workforce participating, leading to the passage of equal pay legislation. While Iceland is recognized as one of the world’s most gender-equal countries, this strike highlights ongoing issues. Jakobsdottir’s government is exploring how to value female-dominated professions compared to male-dominated ones. (Ido Vock, “Iceland's PM strikes over gender pay gap,” BBC, 23 October 2023)

IRELAND
2023 Global Ireland Summit to strengthen global presence
On 23 October, Department of Foreign Affairs reported that the 2023 Global Ireland Summit will be hosted in Dublin Castle on 24 October. The annual event will bring together leaders from various sectors, focusing on Ireland’s Global Ireland strategy to enhance its global impact by 2025. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin will host and present the keynote address. Diverse speakers include Environment Minister Eamon Ryan and European Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly. The Summit will span for four days, featuring discussions on topics such as climate, technology, and Ireland’s global voice. It aims to bolster Ireland’s presence, engage in economic, political, and environmental issues, and strengthen connections with its diaspora. (“2023 Global Ireland Summit,” gov.ie, 23 October 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU and Central Asia affirm partnership in ministerial meeting
On 23 October, the 19th EU-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting held in Luxembourg. Ministers from the EU and five Central Asian countries reiterated their commitment to a strategic partnership based on shared values and interests. They emphasized peace, security, and sustainable development, supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency and praising regional cooperation efforts. A Joint Roadmap for deeper collaboration was endorsed, spanning political dialogue, trade, energy, security, and more. Climate change and biodiversity were key concerns, and the ministers' expressed worries about the situation in Afghanistan. The first EU-Central Asia Summit is set for 2024, hosted by Uzbekistan. (“Joint Communiqué of the 19th European Union-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting, Luxembourg,” European Council, 23 October 2023)


23 October 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #653

Switzerland's right-wing populists gain ground in election

Photo : Denis Balibouse/Reuters


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

BELGIUM
Implements new security measures and appoints new Justice Chief after Brussels attack
On 22 October, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced that Belgium is introducing five short-term security measures to enhance its response to potential threats. The move is followed by the recent attack in Brussels. Justice Minister Vincent Van Quickenborne resigned. He took responsibility for the failure to act on Tunisia’s extradition request for the attacker, Abdesalam Lassoued. Lassoued was a Tunisia’s national and a rejected asylum seeker, identified as an “Islamic State” group member. He shot two Swedish soccer fans and wounded another before being killed by police. The failure to deport him despite a deportation order and his illegal residence raised questions about Belgium’s handling of radicalized individuals and administrative errors. Paul Van Tigchelt, the former head of the threat analysis coordinating body, has been appointed as the new justice minister. The measures include additional magistrates in Brussels, resolving a Dutch-speaking public prosecutor appointment issue, reinforcing the federal judicial police, and bolstering railway police. Committees will review security procedures, and information exchange among immigration, police, and the judiciary will be improved. (Bartosz Brezezinski, “Belgium unveils new security measures, justice chief after Brussels attack,” POLITICO, 22 October 2023)

ICELAND
Foreign Minister meets NATO Military Committee Chair
On 21 October, Minister of Foreign Affairs Bjarni Benediktsson met with Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO Military Committee Chair. They discussed NATO’s deterrence and defence, the Ukraine war, and North Atlantic and Arctic security. It was Admiral Bauer’s third visit to Iceland in this capacity, where he also addressed the Arctic Circle Assembly. (“Foreign Minister meets with the Chair of the NATO Military Committee,” Government of Iceland, 21 October 2023)

NORWAY
Foreign Minister urges urgent aid and peace in Gaza, at Cairo Summit
On 21 October, Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide stressed the urgency of delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza at the Cairo summit. He also stressed on preventing further escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. He emphasized compliance with international humanitarian law and the protection of civilians and infrastructure. Eide called for a humanitarian pause in the fighting to allow aid delivery and urged the release of Israel’s hostages. About 200 Norway’s nationals, including children, remain in Gaza, raising concerns for their safety. Norway reiterated support for a two-state solution and announced a NOK 60 million contribution to UNRWA, bringing their total humanitarian support to NOK 200 million. (“Foreign Minister at Gaza summit in Cairo: ‘Urgent help needed in Gaza’,” Government.no, 21 October 2023)

SLOVENIA
Reinstates border checks amid security concerns
On 21 October, several European countries, including Slovenia, Italy, Croatia, and Hungary, reintroduced border checks within the Schengen Area. The move came due to rising security concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict. The move reflected increased worries about public safety and the impact of the conflict on the 27 countries bloc. The EU is considering the challenges posed by internal border controls and their impact on free movement within the Schengen Area. Italy, Denmark, Sweden, and France are among the countries implementing such measures to address migration and security threats. (“Slovenia introduces border checks with Hungary and Croatia,” Euronews, 22 October 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Right-wing populists gain ground in election
On 22 October, right-wing populist party, the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), appeared to have increased its share to 29 per cent of the vote in the general election. Concerns about immigration, climate change, and health insurance fees drove voters’ decisions. The SVP faced criticism for its “xenophobic” ad campaign highlighting crimes by foreigners. The Social Democrats (SP) are projected to secure around 18 per cent of the vote. The Greens and Green Liberals, who saw substantial gains four years ago, are expected to lose support. New parliament members will appoint the federal government in December. (“Populist right grows as counting underway for Swiss election,” Deutsche Welle, 22 October 2023)

THE UK
Defence Secretary visits US for urgent talks
On 22 October, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps traveled to Washington D.C. for urgent discussions with Austin III and Congressional members. The discussions focused on global stability during the Gaza-Israel crisis. The UK has deployed military assets to the eastern Mediterranean to prevent escalation and provided humanitarian aid. This visit followed the recent meeting between UK and US defence secretaries at NATO HQ in Brussels. The UK and US are committed to upholding international law and protecting civilian lives. (“Defence Secretary Grant Shapps visits US for urgent talks in support of global stability amid Gaza-Israel crisis,” GOV.UK, 22 October 2023)

REGIONAL
EU at Cairo Peace Summit: Strong support for peace
On 21 October, addressing the Cairo Peace Summit, President Charles Michel expressed the EU’s commitment to peace, citing the Treaty establishing the EU’s principles. He condemned Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel and called for the release of hostages. The EU emphasized civilian protection and Israel’s right to self-defence within international law. Key points included humanitarian access, preventing regional escalation, and pursuing a lasting solution based on the two-state principle. Michel highlighted the ‘Peace Day Effort’ process and support for the Palestinian Authority. (“Address of President Charles Michel at the Cairo Peace Summit,” European Council, 21 October 2023)

EU and US envoys push for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue amid escalating tensions
On 21 October, EU and US envoys along with diplomats from Germany, France, and Italy, called on Kosovo and Serbia to restart talks to de-escalate the rising tensions. It involved Miroslav Lajcak, EU’s Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, and Gabriel Escobar, US’ Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs. Their visit followed a recent violent incident between Serb gunmen and Kosovo police. The envoys emphasized the urgency of de-escalation and normalization. They highlighted the need to implement a ten point plan for resolving political crises. The creation of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities is a key point of contention, with the EU and US urging Kosovo to establish it. Kosovo wants Europe to sanction Serbia for the September attack. (“Serbia and Kosovo leaders urged to resume dialogue to diffuse escalating tension,” Euronews, 21 October 2023)


21 October 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #652

Germany to build its own spaceport

Photo : Harren&Partner Group/dpa/picture alliance


EM In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

BELGIUM
Justice minister resigns upon pressure on mishandling the extradition of a Tunisian
On 20 October, Vincent van Quickenborne, Belgium’s Justice Minister announced his resignation following the attacks in Brussels. The resignation comes after pressure on his managing of the Tunisian gunman case. On 16 October, two Swedish were shot by a Tunisian who was already subject to be extradited in 2022. The failure of the Belgian justice authorities to extradite and allowing the Tunisian to live illegally resulted in the pressure on Vincent to resign. (“Belgium justice minister resigns after deadly Brussels attack,” France24, 20 October 2023)
 
GERMANY
New spaceport to be launched from North Sea in April 2024
On 21 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the growing significance of satellite data in economic sectors, industries and in self-driven vehicles. This nuanced demand have provoked new space ventures amongst countries especially among private actors like SpaceX. Similarly, Germany has planned to construct its own “spaceport” which is expected to be launched in its first rockets by April 2024. This new facility will not be like USs Cape Canaveral or Kazakhstan’s Baikonur (a land-based) rather will be launched from North Sea. For the launch, the Netherlands’ company T-minus will first launch a rocket from the German-Offshore Spaceport Alliance (GOSA) mobile platform. This platform will be 350 kilometers from the coast of Germany’s EEZ in Berlin. The North Sea platform is expected to become the future place to launch Europe’s microlaunchers, and rockets. According to Federation of German Industries (BDI) the market activities are intertwined with space technology and are predicted to boost by 7.4 per cent annually on the success of space technologies by 2040. (Alexander Freund,  “Taking on SpaceX: Why Germany is building its own spaceport,” Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2023)
 
DENMARK
Meteorological institute issued warning on rise in water level due Babet storm
On 21 October, a storm was reported across the UK, northern Germany, southern Scandinavia with powerful winds, rain, and storm surges. This has led to power outage, floods in coastal areas, cancellation of flights ferry and rail services. Till now four have reported to be dead in the UK, and three in England and Scotland. Due to the storm, the water levels were reportedly rosed by two meters which is the highest in century according to a German news. In response Denmark’s meteorological institute has issued warning on strong winds and high levels of water till 22 October. (“Storm Babet batters northern Europe, killing at least 4 people,” Le Monde, 21 October 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Lavrov visit to North Korea aims to boost military cooperation
On 19 October, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister visited North Korea to discuss bilateral cooperation with Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader. During his visit, military cooperation remains key part of the discussion. He also pledged “complete support” for North Korea. Earlier, the US released its intelligence update on confirming the shipment from North Korea to Russia’s military warehouse near Tikhoretsk near Ukraine’s border. According to the report in BBC, North Korea is reported to have “stockpile of arms” whereas it’s economy’s performance remains low. This leading to shortage in food and medicine, Lavrov’s visit comes in favour for an exchange. (Derek Cai & Jean Mackenzie, “Russia's Lavrov hails deeper ties in N Korea visit,” BBC, 19 October 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Commission calls for a check on social media giants over spread of false information
On 19 October, the European Commission demanded details from Meta and TikTok on the steps taken to counter disinformation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The move comes after the Commission gave a week for the media companies to report the measures taken in combatting the spread of violent content and hate speech in their platforms. According to EUs internal market commissioner the widespread of the “illegal content and disinformation” poses risk of stigmatizing specific communities and weakening of “democratic structures.” This points to the EUs latest Digital Services Act which has been challenged to be implemented due to the war in Israel, which has resulted numerous social media posts containing false information and misrepresentative videos. (“EU probes Meta and TikTok over Hamas-Israel online content,” Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2023)


19 October 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #650

Thunberg arrested in protest held in London

Photo : HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP


EM In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

GEORGIA
President surpasses impeachment vote
On 18 October, Salome Zurabishvili Georgia’s President was saved from an impeachment vote. In a voting held in the parliament 86 out of 150 voted in favour of impeachment where two-third majority was required and the opposition abstained from voting. It was targeted against Zurabishvili’s attempt to secure membership support for Georgia with EU leader through a meeting. Georgia’s constitutional court declared it as a violation of the constitution. In response she said: “No-one could impede me on the road leading to the sole goal I have today: to get EU candidate status for Georgia by the end of the year.” Previously Georgia’s EU membership status was held under conditions of implementing “judicial, electoral, press freedom and cutdown in the power of oligarchs.” Zurabishvili has been subject to criticism on failure of implementing those conditions. (“Georgia: Pro-EU president survives impeachment vote,” Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2023)

SWEDEN
Thunberg arrested in protest held in London
On 17 October, Sweden’s young climate activist Greta Thunberg was arrested by the UK police on gathering protestors outside an oil and gas conference. In the protest, Thunberg along with hundreds of people from Fossil Free London and Greenpeace groups demonstrated saying “Oily Money Out.” She said: “Behind these closed doors, spineless politicians are making deals and compromises with lobbyists from [the] destructive fossil fuel industry.” The protests were targeted against the fossil fuel companies which seem to drag in the energy transition and shift into renewables to make profits. According to the Thunberg, the consequence of using of fossil fuels is clear and argues that despite the awareness the industries continue to do “nothing.” (“Greta Thunberg detained at London climate  protest,” Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2023)
 
REGIONAL
ECB announces preparatory phase to switch Euro to digital currency
On 18 October, Europe’s Central Bank (ECB) announced the launch of digital version of the Euro. According the governing council, a two-year “preparation phase” will begin from 01 November to set the rules and select private-sector partners. This phase will also assess the benefit and risk related to common digital currency. The final decision to launch it remains to be finalised but it would ease the use of Euro in digital format from central bank money. According to ECB president: “We need to prepare our currency for the future… coexist alongside physical cash, while leaving no one behind.” In its statement, the central bank highlighted that the move would boost the monetary sovereignty and invoke competition in the “European payment sector.” At the global level, China and Japan are equally in the experimental mode on digital currencies whereas the US, England and Canada till opt a cautious approach. (“European Central Bank moves 'digital euro' to next phase,” Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2023)

European Parliament award Mahsa Amini the prize of Freedom of thought
On 19 October, Roberta Metsola, President of European Parliament awarded Jina Mahsa Amini and the Women, Life and Freedom Movement in Iran European Parliament’s Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. She highlighted the brutal murder of Amini as a spark point to provoke the women-led movement. The prize is given as a tribute for brave women, men and young people of Iran for leading the movement despite pressure. The award is one of the highest tribute to human rights fighters and provides award of EUR 50,000. (“Mahsa Amini and Woman, Life and Freedom Movement in Iran awarded top EU human rights prize,” Euronews, 19 October 2023)


18 October 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #649

Sweden announces damage in Estonia-Sweden telecom cable

Photo : Reuters


EM In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

POLAND
Civic Coalition party in leverage to forming the coalition government
On 17 October, BBC reported on Poland’s opposition party Civic Coalition gaining enough votes to win the governing Law and Justice party (PiS). In the election results, PiS won 35.38 per cent whereas the Civic Coalition secured 30.7 per cent. To form a majority government, a party requires 231 seats and PiS drawback is its possible coalition partner seats winning only 12 seats will not help in securing the majority. Therefore, the opposition is in favour to form government with support from Third Way and New Left parties. Till 14 November, the PiS party will be given time to form coalition and on failure the opposition will be asked. (“Poland election: Tusk's opposition eyes power after pivotal vote,” BBC, 17 October 2023)

RUSSIA
State of Duma adopts bill withdrawing from ratifying of CTBT
On 18 October, Russia’s State of Duma adopted a bill declaring the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the State of Duma, criticized the US for ratifying and showcasing itself as hegemon of a unipolar world. Therefore, in interest of Russia’s security, justice and stability the bill was adopted. In the statement by the Chairman of the International Affairs Committee: “We will monitor the US activity, as its every action on the world stage, unfortunately, undermines the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the strategic balance of nuclear forces and global security.” (The State of Duma, “The State Duma adopted the bill de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty,” Duma.gov.ru, 18 October 2023)

SWEDEN
Government announces damage in Estonia-Sweden telecom cable
On 17 October, Sweden’s government announced the telecom cable connecting Estonia and Sweden to be damaged. According to Carl-Oskar, Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister the damage had occurred at the same time when gas pipeline of Finland and Estonia were damaged. In response to the incident, authorities from Sweden, Finland, and Estonia will jointly investigate. Countries located in the Baltic Sea have triggered alert on surveillance of undersea infrastructure since September 2022. Russia which has denied the allegations of the attack to the pipeline, the responsible actor remain unknown. (Ido Vock, “Sweden investigating damage to Baltic undersea cable,” BBC, 17 October 2023)

REGIONAL
Council of Europe stresses the need to phase out from fossil fuels by 2030
On 16 October, after the EU environment ministers meeting, the European Council released a statement indicating EU’s position for the upcoming COP28 summit. The united stand is to completely phase out from use of fossil fuels by 2030. According to the statement, burning of oil, coal, gas results in greenhouses gases serving as casual factor for climate change. During the meeting, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and other EU member stated enforced the EU to place the demand. Another group of 10 EU member states, including Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Slovakia, and Poland vouched only for the phase out of “unabated” type of fossil fuels. The meeting laid importance on four key factors. One, increasing of “global ambition towards climate neutrality” especially in the advanced economies through strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Two, through diverting from fossil fuels and increased usage of renewable energy. Third and fourth on enhancing climate mitigation efforts and boosting climate finance to counter the damage and bring adaptation strategies. (European Council, “COP28: Council sets out EU position for UN climate summit in Dubai,” European Council, 16 October; “EU to push for phasing out fossil fuels at COP28,” Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2023)

France and Germany resist to agree on EU’s reform on government spending
On 17 October, in a meeting held between the EU finance ministers disagreement continued between France and Germany on EUs plan to rework rules on government spending. According to European Commission reforming of the Stability and Growth Pact is a priority to prevent debt accumulation. Therefore, reaching consensus among the 27 member states was necessary to reapply the rules which were earlier suspended due to pandemic. The reform is to maintain the government debt at 60 per cent or reducing it to 60 per cent of GDP and keeping annual deficit at three per cent of the GDP. Germany argues on keeping a benchmark or “safeguard” by individual countries as a way to speed down debt reduction or keep a check on deficits. Whereas France is opposing the reduction of annual spending. In case of Poland and Italy, seek for an exemption for defence spending and those investments sponsored by the EU loans under COVID-19 fund recovery. Being a year since the Commission proposed the reform, many EU member states remain to support. (Paola Tamma, “Franco-German disagreement stalls EU fiscal rules reform,” POLITICO, 17 October 2023)


14 October 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #646

Marine Le Pen convicted of defamation against migrant NGO Cimade in France

Photo : AFP/CLEMENT MAHOUDEAU


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
Marine Le Pen convicted of defamation against migrant NGO Cimade
On 13 October, according to Euronews, Marine Le Pen, former leader of France’s far-right National Rally party, was convicted of defamation. She was convicted against the NGO Cimade, which supports migrants and refugees. She accused Cimade of being “accomplices of smugglers” involved in illegal immigration from the Comoros to Mayotte, a French overseas department. The court found her guilty and ordered her to pay a suspended fine of EUR 500 to Cimade, along with EUR 2,000 in court costs and EUR one in damages. Le Pen’s remarks were deemed to have exceeded the limits of free speech, marking a legal victory for the NGO. (“Marine Le Pen found guilty of defamation after accusing French NGO of smuggling migrants in Mayotte,” Euronews, 13 October 2023)

Attack at school triggers heightened security alert
On 13 October, France elevated its security alert to the highest level after a knife-wielding attacker fatally stabbed a teacher outside a school in Arras, northeastern France. The assailant, identified as 20-year-old Russia’s national Mohammed Mogouchkov, shouted “Allahu Akbar” during the attack. Two others were seriously injured. The raised alert level permits increased police and military deployments. President Emmanuel Macron condemned the act of “Islamic terrorism” and urged unity. The attack occurred nearly three years after the beheading of teacher Samuel Paty, raising concerns in the context of heightened Middle East tensions and France’s diverse population. (“France raises alert level after teacher stabbing,” Euronews, 13 October 2023)

RUSSIA
Euractiv reports on continuing oil exports of Russia above sanction cap
On 13 October, Euractiv reported that loopholes have enabled Russia’s crude oil producers to continue selling to China and India at higher prices. The loopholes in sanctions are meant to cap the price of Russia’s oil at USD 60 per barrel. The US has imposed sanctions on owners of tankers transporting Russia’s oil above the cap. However, the arrival of new shippers beyond the reach of Western sanctions has allowed Russia to earn more revenue. Freight rates have dropped significantly, offering Russia’s producers even higher revenues. This situation comes as Russia exported nearly five million barrels per day of crude oil in 2023. Its oil and fuel exports increased to 7.6 million barrels per day in September. (“Growing tanker fleet, cheaper freight challenge Russian oil price cap,” Euractiv, 13 October 2023)

THE UK
Celebrates 200 years of relations in trade dialogue with Peru
On 13 October, Nigel Huddleston Minister for International Trade, and HE Juan Carlos Mathews, Peru’s Minister of Foreign Trade and Tourism, convened in Lima. It was for the second UK-Peru Trade Dialogue. Celebrating two centuries of diplomatic relations, they lauded the strengthening of bilateral trade and cooperation. It was facilitated by the existing trade agreement and the UK’s recent accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP). Both ministers affirmed their commitment to enhancing public and business understanding of these agreements and nurturing growth, particularly among small and medium enterprises. They also discussed key sectors, double taxation agreements, and measures to improve market access. (“UK-Peru trade dialogue: Building for the future,” GOV.UK, 13 October 2023)

REGIONAL
Council of Europe recognizes Ukraine’s Holodomor as genocide
On 12 October, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has voted to recognize the Holodomor, a 1930s famine in Soviet Ukraine, as a “genocide.” The famine, caused by forced collectivization of farmers under Stalin, resulted in millions of deaths. Kyiv has labelled it a deliberate act of genocide since 2006, while Moscow disputes this characterization. The Council’s decision aligns with similar recognition by the European Parliament and countries like Germany. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, welcomed the decision, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging historical injustices. (“Council of Europe votes to recognize Holodomor as 'genocide',” Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2023)


13 October 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #645

UK deploys surveillance ships to trace regional threats

Photo : BBC


EM In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Government announces ban against pro-Palestinian protests
On 12 October, important cities in France, Paris, Lille, Bordeaux, and other cities witnessed protests in support of Palestine. In response, Gerald Darmanin, France’s Interior Minister announced a ban on demonstrations and those resisting to be arrested. On the same Emmanuel Macron, France’s President asked people to not cause divide and said: “The shield of unity will protect us from hatred and excesses.” The ban on protests comes after concerns among the Europeans arise due to “antisemitism” triggered from the war in Israel. After the ban, the Pro-Palestinian groups said the ban endangered their “freedom of expression,” and stressed to continue the protests. (Ido Vock and Laurence Peter, “French police break up pro-Palestinian demo after ban,” BBC, 13 October 2023)
 
GERMANY
Defence minister announced military contribution to NATO
On 12 October, Boris Pistorius, Germany’s Defence Minister announced its decision to provide 35,000 troops to NATO as of 2025. The move comes after NATO proposed its plan to protect few critical locations in Europe. Till now 300,000 NATO troops have been allotted for quick deployment in any other NATO country. Along with the troops, Germany will also produce 200 aircrafts and key assets for faster deployment. According to Pistorius, close to 4,000 will be deployed standardly in Lithuania. (“Germany to provide NATO with 35,000 troops from 2025,” Deutsche Welle, 12 October 2023)  
 
New migration bill proposed to allow more authority for deportation
On 11 October, Nancy Faeser, Germany’s Interior Minister revealed a migration bill to restructure deportation. The bill would grant more powers to German authorities to carry out deportation of migrants of dangerous nature such as criminals, and smugglers. The measures include an extension in the “period of detention” from 10 to 28 days as a preparation time for the authorities to deport. A spokesperson from the Social Democratic Party stated that the discussion on the proposal was underway with the local and state authorities. Next step will be to reach consensus among the coalition parties to make possible adjustments to avoid repatriations. For the same, Olaf Scholz German Chancellor called the opposition party lead Fridrich Merz from Christian Democratic Union for a meeting on 13 October to gather consensus for the migration policy. (“Germany moves to streamline migrant deportations,” Deutsche Welle, 11 October 2023) 
 
HUNGARY
Government signs agreement with Georgia on cooperation in advanced technologies
Between 11-12 October, Marton Nagy, Hungary’s Minister of Economic Development held meeting with Levan Davitashvili, Deputy Prime Minister of Georgia in the Georgian-Hungarian government meeting. The discussion focused on cooperation in future technologies, AI, and industry 4.0 solution. In the outcome, the ministers signed an agreement to promote industrial cooperation in digital transformation, advanced technologies, skilled workforce, production of transport vehicles and medical equipment. Till now the trade between the two countries comes to USD 90 million. (“Agreement to Deepen Industrial Cooperation with Georgia,” Hungary Today, 13 October 2023)
 
THE UK
Government to deploy surveillance ships to trace regional threats
On 13 October, BBC reported on UK’s decision to send two Royal Navy ships and surveillance aircraft to boost security in the eastern Mediterranean. The move comes after violence lasting six days in Israel. Sent aircraft will patrol from 13 October to trace weapon transfers or threats that might hamper regional stability. Along with this, three Merlin helicopters and Royal Marines will also be sent in support. The government assured that it will “stand side by side with Israel in fighting terror.” UKs Defence Secretary stated that the sent ships will help  hospital facilities and deter external influence. (Aoife Walsh, “UK to deploy Royal Navy ships to Middle East to 'bolster security',” BBC, 13 October 2023)


12 October 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #644

Sami activists protest demanding removal of wind farms Fosen district in Norway

Photo : Javad Parsa/NTB Scanpix via AP


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
Court rejects class action alleging police racial profiling
On 11 October, the highest administrative court (Conseil d'État) rejected a class action lawsuit against the state. It asserted that it is not within the judiciary’s purview to redefine public policy. While recognizing the issue of discrimination in policing, particularly against young Arab and Black men, the court did not label it as “systemic.” This case, brought by six human rights organizations, is seen as a missed opportunity by advocates for concrete reforms. The lawsuit’s scope and political nature may not align with the French judicial approach, according to legal experts. It is the first ruling on a class action lawsuit against the state in France. It could influence future legal actions in the country. (“Top French court rejects lawsuit contending 'systemic' racial profiling by police,” France24, 11 October 2023)

NORWAY
Sami activists protest demanding removal of wind farms Fosen district
On 11 October, Sami activists held protests outside Norway’s parliament to voice concerns over a wind farm they argue threatens their way of life. Protesters blocked a major Oslo Road, demanding the dismantling of the turbines and the restoration of the land. The dispute centres on Europe’s largest onshore wind farm with 151 turbines in central Norway’s Fosen district. The protests were held in Oslo on the second anniversary of a court ruling that deemed wind farms in western Norway illegal on land traditionally used by Sami reindeer herders. Activists assert that the transition to green energy should not infringe on the rights of Indigenous people. They have been protesting the wind farm’s continued operation despite a 2021 Supreme Court ruling that found the turbines’ construction violated the Sami’s rights. The 151 turbines in question remain operational despite the court’s verdict. While the ruling invalidated permits for turbine construction, it did not provide guidance on their fate. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store admitted “ongoing human rights violations,” and activists demand the removal of windmills from Sami land. (“Norway activists renew protest against wind farm on land used by herders,” Associated Press, 11 October 2023; “Sami Activists Protest Illegal Wind Turbines In Norway,” Barron's, 11 October 2023)

POLAND
Poles abroad registers to vote in election
On 11 October, Euronews reported that over half a million members of Poland’s diaspora have registered for the upcoming parliamentary election. It comes with their votes potentially influencing the outcome. The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) seeks a third term, but the opposition led by Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition party (KO) is a strong contender. Polls indicate a possible coalition government as neither PiS nor KO appears likely to secure a majority. Concerns exist about the handling of overseas votes due to new electoral rules. (Giulia Carbonaro & Magdalena Chodownik, “More than half a million Poles abroad register to vote in Sunday's close-call election,” Euronews, 11 October 2023)

SLOVAKIA
Smer, Hlas, and SNS form new coalition government
On 11 October, the Hlas party, finishing third in the 30 September election, chose to enter a coalition with the Smer party, which won the election, and the Slovak National Party (SNS). Together, these parties have 79 seats in Slovakia’s parliament. The incoming government faces fiscal and geopolitical challenges but claims prior experience makes them well-prepared. The coalition agreement allocates ministries with Smer taking six, Hlas receiving seven, and SNS three. The new government’s campaign pledges include ending military support for Ukraine and resisting sanctions on Russia, sparking concerns in Brussels. (Tom Nicholson and Laura Hulsemann, “New government emerges in Slovakia, with Robert Fico as prime minister,” Politico, 11 October 2023)

REGIONAL
Gaia Space Mission unveils hidden stars in Milky Way clusters
On 11 October, Deutsche Welle reported that the Gaia mission discovered half a million new stars within the Omega Centauri globular cluster. It unveiled the most densely packed region observed. Gaia is a mission by the European Space Agency (ESA), aimed at creating a 3D map of the galaxy. These globular clusters, some of the universe’s oldest objects, helped determine the sun’s position in the Milky Way. Gaia’s advanced observations allowed scientists to overcome the challenges of studying these clusters, which can distort light through gravitational lensing. The mission’s findings provide crucial insights into the distribution of stars in the Milky Way. Further, it aims to confirm the galaxy’s age and the universe itself in future data releases. (Sushmitha Ramakrishnan, “Gaia space observatory finds half a million new stars,” Deutsche Welle, 11 October 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Tunisia returns EU funds amid migrant deal dispute
On 11 October, according to Politico, tensions between Tunisia and the EU escalated as Tunisia returned EUR 60 million of EU budget support. It was delivered in September, in response to growing dissatisfaction with the migrant deal signed in July. Tunisia accuses the EU of withholding more promised funds and claims the EUR 60 million was already part of a pre-existing agreement. Nabil Ammar, Tunisia’s Foreign Minister, criticized the EU and officially returned the funds on 09 October. While relations have soured, the EU maintains that the Tunisia deal sets a precedent for future agreements with North African nations, with a similar deal proposed for Egypt. (Gregorio Sorgi, “Tunisia hands back €60M of EU funding as migrant deal tensions soar,” Politico, 11 October 2023)

EU and US plan joint tariff zone on steel and aluminum imports
On 11 October, according to Politico, the European Commission put forward a proposal for a joint EU-US tariff zone. It targets steel and aluminum imports from non-market economies, particularly China, with a 25 per cent tariff on steel and 10 per cent on aluminum. This initiative seeks to unite like-minded economies in imposing tariffs on countries accused of subsidizing sectors like steel and clean technology. The proposal is intended to enhance the transatlantic alliance against China, with a focus on sustainable steel and reducing subsidies. EU member states have granted the Commission authority to negotiate with the US, though some feel underrepresented. Steel-producing countries may challenge the concept at the WTO, while negotiations between the EU and US continue with challenges in reaching a consensus. (Camille Gijs and Sarah Anne Aarup, “It’s the EU and US against the rest of the world in new steel club,” Politico, 11 October, 2023)


11 October 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #643

Finland gas pipeline leak under investigation

Photo : European Space Agency


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

AUSTRIA
Federal Minister addresses Internet Governance Forum
On 10 October, Federal Minister Karoline Edtstadler attended the 18th Internet Governance Forum meeting in Kyoto, Japan. It aims to establish global regulations for internet security and rights. The focus of the meeting was on addressing online hate, AI, cybersecurity, and global internet access. Edtstadler emphasized the need for the enforcement of human rights in the digital space and called for common international understanding to combat online hate. She also highlighted the importance of women globally working together to push for effective regulations on major internet platforms. Edtstadler was appointed to a leadership panel by Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General. (“Federal Minister Edtstadler: Human rights that apply offline must also be enforceable online,” Bundeskanzlerant, 10 October 2023)

FINLAND
Balticconnector gas pipeline leak: Cause under investigation
On 10 October, an external cause was suspected in the leak of the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. While the exact reason is yet to be determined, President Sauli Niinistö indicated that it could be due to external activity. The National Bureau of Investigation is leading the inquiry with support from various authorities. Estonia’s navy has been dispatched to the location of the leak. Both Finland and Estonia have alternative gas supplies, so the incident is not expected to affect energy security. Repair work may take several months. It is notable as concerns arise over critical infrastructure security. (“Location of leak in Balticconnector gas pipeline identified in Finland’s economic zone,” Finnish Government, 10 October 2023; Victor Jack, “Finnish pipeline leak points to ‘external activity,’ president says,” Politico, 10 October 2023; “Baltic gas pipeline leak 'likely caused by external activity' says Finland's president,” Euronews, 10 October 2023)

POLAND
Top military officers resign ahead of election
On 10 October, Chief of General Staff, Gen Rajmund Andrzejczak, and Operational Commander Gen Tomasz Piotrowski resigned just before a crucial election. While they gave no official reasons for their resignations, reports suggest concerns about the government’s attempts to politicize the military played a role. This comes amid accusations of the government’s politicization of the judiciary and curbing media freedoms. The right-wing government, seeking a third term in office, denies these allegations. The election is seen as a significant moment in Poland’s political landscape, with a narrower gap between the right and centre parties. Relations with Ukraine have also been strained due to a ban on Ukraine’s grain imports. (Jaroslav Lukiv, “Poland's top army generals quit ahead of key elections,” BBC, 10 October 2023)

SLOVAKIA
Post-election coalition shifts toward left
On 10 October, Politico reported that following the recent election on 30 September, a new ruling coalition is emerging. It is causing concern within Ukraine and among EU supporters. Peter Pellegrini, leader of the social democratic Hlas party, which secured third place in the election, announced that Hlas will exclusively negotiate with the leftist-populist Smer party. The Smer party is led by former PM Robert Fico, and the nationalist Slovenska narodna strana (Slovak National Party, SNS). These three parties together hold 79 seats in the 150-seat parliament. Their alignment is shifting towards a more red-brown coalition, raising questions about their stance on Ukraine and EU solidarity. (Tom Nicholson, “Slovakia’s kingmaker party only wants coalition with populist Fico,” Politico, 10 October 2023)

THE UK
Attorneys General from British Overseas Territories meets to strengthen cooperation
On 10 October, Attorneys General from British Overseas Territories, Crown Dependencies, and UK officials convened in Montserrat. It was for the 2023 Overseas Territories Attorneys General Conference, marking the first in-person gathering since the pandemic. Discussions included constitutional processes, same-sex partnerships, safeguarding, maritime issues, criminal justice, and law enforcement. The delegates welcomed the vital role of Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies in implementing UK sanctions. The conference reinforced commitment to upholding the rule of law and cooperation on various priority issues. (“Overseas Territories Attorneys General Conference: September 2023,” Gov.uk, 10 October 2023)

Dogger Bank wind farm powers up, sets records
On 10 October, Euronews reported that the Dogger Bank wind farm, the world's largest offshore wind project, is now connected to the UK national grid. It marks a significant milestone in renewable energy. Located in the North Sea, it recently installed its first of 277 turbines, each with 107-metre-long blades capable of powering a home for two days with a single rotation. At full capacity, it will supply five per cent of the UK’s electricity, boasting a record 3.6 gigawatt capacity. The wind farm, spanning an area similar to Greater London, will contribute to the reduction of 1.5 million cars’ worth of CO2 emissions annually and operate for 35 years. (Angela Symons, “‘Exactly how we should be responding to the energy crisis’: UK mega wind farm produces first power,” Euronews, 10 October 2023)

REGIONAL
EU faces confusion over Palestine’s aid suspension
On 10 October, the European Commission grappled with confusion over the suspension of aid to Palestine’s territories following the Israel-Hamas conflict. Oliver Varhelyi, EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, announced a suspension of “all payments” and “new budget proposals” on social media.  It prompted backlash from some EU member states. Janez Lenarčič, EU Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management, later clarified that humanitarian aid would continue, revealing internal disagreements. The Commission eventually issued an official press release, explaining that an “urgent review” would ensure EU funding does not indirectly support terrorist organizations. The review would not impact the EUR 27.9 million allocated for humanitarian aid in 2023. (Jorge Liboreiro, “Commissioner Várhelyi went solo with suspension of EU funds for Palestinians, prompting U-turn,” Euronews, 10 October 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
27th GCC-EU Joint Council and ministerial meeting held in Muscat
On 10 October, the 27th GCC-EU Joint Council met in Muscat, Oman, emphasizing their strategic partnership in addressing global challenges. GCC delegates were led by H.E. Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, Oman’s Foreign Minister, and EU representatives was headed by Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. They noted the importance of this partnership given the threats to peace, security, and the global economy. They reviewed the Joint Action Programme (2022-2027), expanding cooperation in various fields. Both sides agreed to create a regional security dialogue and working groups to address common issues. They also expressed concern over Ukraine and the situation in Israel and Gaza. The GCC-EU partnership aims for sustainability, peace, and stability in the region. (“Co-Chairs’ Statement of the 27th GCC-EU Joint Council and Ministerial Meeting,” European Council, 10 October 2023)


10 October 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #642

UK Supreme Court reviews asylum deportation

Photo : AP Photo/Jon Super


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

BELARUS
Aims for sustainable economic growth
On 09 October, Aleksandr Yegorov, the Chairman of the Development Bank, expressed confidence in Belarus’ trajectory towards long-term economic growth. This follows President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s approval of key development parameters for 2024. It includes a projected GDP growth of 3.8 per cent, driven by investments, expanded foreign market presence, and domestic demand. Exports are expected to increase by 7.6 per cent, focusing on growing foreign trade and capital expenditure. Yegorov highlighted the One District-One Project initiative and import-substitution projects as essential contributors to export growth. It particularly targets Asian, African, and Latin American markets. (“Belarus on track towards stable long-term economic growth,” Belta, 09 October 2023)

Russia appointed governor of Novosibirsk Oblast seeks closer ties with Belarus
On 09 October, Andrei Travnikov, Governor of Russia’s Novosibirsk Oblast, highlighted priority areas of cooperation with Belarus. It was during a meeting with Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko. The region aims to collaborate in agriculture, particularly joint agricultural machinery production, and biotechnology. It focuses on bio additives, premixes, and plant bioprotection products. Additionally, Novosibirsk is exploring new ties in the medical field, with plans for joint research and development of medical devices. It includes high-power pulse generators and catheters for complex heart rhythm disorders. A delegation comprising government and business representatives will visit Belarus’s enterprises to strengthen cooperation. (“Priority areas of cooperation between Russia's Novosibirsk Oblast, Belarus outlined,” Belta, 09 October 2023)

THE UK
Supreme Court reviews asylum deportation
On 09 October, the Supreme Court of UK reviewed the government’s appeal to overturn a law deeming the deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda, unlawfully. It is a policy championed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to curb asylum-seeking numbers. This hearing comes as the UK prepares for upcoming elections. Government lawyers will contest the ruling over three days, while migrants from various countries will challenge the deportation scheme. The June ruling in London’s Court of Appeal stated Rwanda was not a safe third country. It highlighted the deficiencies in its asylum system and the risk of deportees facing persecution or inhumane treatment upon return to their home countries. The Conservative Party, which has made migration policy a top priority, is closely watching the outcome. Over 100,000 migrants have crossed the English Channel since 2018, a pressing concern for the public and a key factor in the Brexit vote. PM Rishi Sunak’s government seeks to block asylum applications from those arriving in the UK by small boats. (“UK court to hear government appeal on Rwanda migrant plan,” Deutsche Welle, 09 October 2023)

REGIONAL
EU divided over Palestine’s aid cuts
On 09 October, Olivér Várhelyi, EU Enlargement Commissioner, announced a review of EUR 691 million in aid payments, but this move sparked concerns across the bloc. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, later clarified that payments would not be suspended to avoid punishing all Palestinians and emboldening terrorists. The EU’s united stance on Israel’s conflict with Hamas is fracturing, with internal divisions over whether to freeze aid to the Palestine’s Authority. Disagreements on the issue are expected at the EU foreign affairs ministers’ meeting, where member states are set to discuss the matter. The situation highlights long standing divisions within the EU on the Israel-Palestine conflict. (Barbara Moens and Suzanne Lynch, “EU U-turns after halting Palestinian funding following Hamas attack,” Politico, 09 October 2023)

Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania discusses oil pipeline project
On 09 October, according to Euractiv, Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania are considering the oil pipeline project. It connects the Greek port of Alexandroupolis to Bulgaria’s port of Burgas. It is seen as part of their efforts to enhance energy, transport, and digital connectivity in Southeast Europe. The project, initiated in 1994 and revived by Bulgaria, is gaining traction due to concerns over Russia’s oil supplies and the impact on traffic in the Bosphorus. This development also interests Russia’s company Lukoil, which manages the Burgas refinery. The pipeline could help Lukoil export its production more easily and reduce Russia’s dependence on Turkey for oil transport. (Emiliya Milcheva and Krassen Nikolov, “Three countries support construction of Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline,” Euractiv, 09 October 2023)

NATO contemplates expanding security relations amid growing concerns
On 09 October, Euractiv reported that NATO is considering enhancing security ties with countries in Africa and the Middle East. This move comes as China and Russia increased their influence on NATO’s southern flank. Concerns about insecurity in these regions have prompted NATO’s comprehensive reflection on threats, challenges, and engagement opportunities with partner countries and international organizations. While NATO members advocate for a broader focus beyond the eastern flank to counter Russia’s and China’s influence, building new relationships would not be straightforward. Dialogue and tangible support are suggested as initial steps, with countries like Brazil, South Africa, India, and Indonesia also seen as potential future partners. (Aurélie Pugnet, “NATO eyes firmer foothold in its Southern neighbourhood,” Euractiv, 09 October 2023)

Baltic gas pipeline shutdown; Repairs may take months
On 09 October, Finland’s gas system operator Gasgrid and its Estonia’s partner Elering, said that the Balticconnector subsea gas pipeline could take several months or more to repair. It is in case a puncture is confirmed.  The pipeline connects Finland and Estonia, which was shut down due to a suspected leak. The pipeline suffered a significant pressure drop, and investigations are ongoing to pinpoint the location and cause of the outage. Repair duration depends on the extent of damage. Gasgrid has closed the pipeline valves to prevent further gas loss. Unlike the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022, there were no immediate signs of seismic activity near the Balticconnector. (“Repairing Finland-Estonia gas pipeline may take months, operator says,” Reuters, 09 October 2023; “Operators to inspect Finland-Estonia gas pipeline for possible leak,” Reuters, 09 October 2023)


09 October 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #641

Spain's PLD Space firm succeeds in launching Miura-1 private rocket

Photo : PLD Space/Handout via Reuters


EM In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Accused for giving weapons to Armenia
On 08 October, Politico reported on Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s President criticism against France for being the reason for conflict with Armenia. Aliyev accused France for providing weapons to Armenia was not useful in establishing peace but served as escalation of conflict. France and Armenia which has strong diplomatic relations and has been the host to many Armenians. Although Josep Michel, EU’s High Representative assured EUs commitment to normalize relations, the criticism has come from Azerbaijan. France’s ministry of foreign affairs is yet to respond. (Sarah Anne Aarup, “Azerbaijan leader: ‘France would be responsible’ for any new conflict with Armenia,” Politico, 08 October 2023)

GERMANY
CDU and CSU win elections in Bavaria
On 08 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the win of Christian Social Union (CSU) party and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the elections held in Bavaria and Hesse. According to the report, the win of CSU and CDU showcased the gains of AfD party (far-right). The CDU lead by Boris Rhein won 34.6 per cent followed by AfD far-right with 18.4 per cent and lastly Social Democrats placed in third place with 15.1 per cent. In case of Greens and SPD which received 14.4 per cent and 8.4 per cent failed to meet the threshold to enter Bavaria’s parliament. (“Germany: CSU and CDU victorious in Bavaria and Hesse,” Deutsche Welle, 08 October 2023)

LUXEMBOURG
Christian Social People’s Party wins general elections
On 08 October, in Luxembourg general elections, center-right Christian Social People’s Party (CSV) won the elections with 21 seats of 60. The outgoing coalition consisting the Greens, the Socialists and liberal Democratic Party along led by Xavier Bettel’s failed to secure majority. The election result indicates strong hold of CSV which will initiate the formation of coalition on 09 October. According to CSV leader Luc Frieden: “…voters voted massively for a different government and a different policy…They put the CSV in a position to play a key role in the formation of that government.” In the case of right wing Alternative Democratic Reform party (ARD), it made gains with extra seats securing fourth place in the election. (Nicolas Camut, “Luxembourg PM Bettel faces exit after election defeat,” Politico, 09 October 2023)

SPAIN
Protest against giving amnesty to Catalan leaders
On 08 October, many thousands of people staged protests in Barcelona against the proposal of giving amnesty to Catalan Separatists. According to the States’s police, more than 50,000 took part in the protest whereas according to Societat Civil Catalana (SCC), a civil society group which organized recorded 300,000 protestors. The protests have emerged to the continuing political impasse in Spain’s government. After the failure of People’s Party leader Alberto Feijoo to form a coalition government, Socialist group leader Pedro Sanchez will now attempt to form government. To form the coalition, support of Junts, along with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya party is required. Giving of amnesty would mean elimination of charges on Catalan leaders who tried for 2017 independence bid. This has sparked protest among people. (“Spain: Protest against Catalan amnesty deal draws huge crowd,” Deutsche Welle, 08 October 2023)

PLD Space firm succeeds in launching Miura-1 private rocket
On 07 October, Spain’s firm PLD Space launched its first private rocket. This will be Europe’s full private rocket to step its space agenda. The rocket called as Miura-1 was launched from a military base in Andalusia. According to Raul Torres, Chief Executive of PDL Space, the systems in rocket worked “perfectly” after two failed attempts. In recent years, Europe was under scrutiny due to its failure in sending small satellites. Along with Spain, firms from Scotland, Sweden and Germany are in line to join the race in sending small payloads. (“Spain's first private rocket launch deemed 'successful',” Deutsch Welle, 07 October 2023)


06 October 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #639

US F-16 shoots Turkey’s drone in Syria

Photo : Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
EU leaders reiterate support for Armenia’s sovereignty and peace in region
On 05 October, President Emmanuel Macron, Charles Michel, President of the European Council and Olaf Scholz, Germany's Chancellor, reaffirmed their strong backing for Armenia’s independence, territorial integrity, and border inviolability. They emphasized the need to enhance EU-Armenia relations and provide humanitarian aid following the displacement of Karabakh Armenians. The leaders stressed the refugees’ right to return home with international monitoring and respect for their culture. They remain committed to normalizing Armenia-Azerbaijan relations based on mutual recognition, territorial integrity, and non-use of force. They called for border delimitation, reopening of borders, regional cooperation, detainee release, addressing missing persons, and demining efforts. (“Statement by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, President Michel of the European Council, President Macron of France and Chancellor Scholz of Germany,” Elysee, 05 October 2023)

HUNGARY
Mission in Chad to prevent humanitarian disaster
On 05 October, Secretary of State Azbej Tristan joined a humanitarian mission to Chad as part of the Hungary Helps program. The mission seeks to provide aid and stability to Chad, the last stable country in the Central African region, where many people are seeking refuge. Chad faces healthcare challenges, with infant mortality rates 22 times higher than in Europe. Approximately one-third of the population requires immediate humanitarian assistance. By preventing a humanitarian disaster in Chad, Hungary aims to avoid a potential refugee crisis in Europe and contribute to regional stability and development. (“Humanitarian Disaster in Chad Could Result in a Flood of Refugees,” Hungary Today, 05 October 2023)

TURKEY
US F-16 shoots Turkey’s drone in Syria
On 05 October, the US F-16 fighter jet shot down a Turkey’s drone that approached American forces in northeast Syria. The incident escalated tensions between the two NATO allies, who have been at odds over various security issues. US officials clarified they had no reason to believe the Turkey’s drone targeted American forces but noted it was armed and disregarded warnings. The US aims to maintain cooperation with Turkey for matters like Sweden’s NATO entry and addressing security threats. Turkey has voiced concerns about US support for Syrian Kurds, viewing them as a threat. The dispute intensified following a recent bombing attack in Ankara. (Lara Seligman, “U.S. F-16 shoots down Turkish drone flying over American troops in Syria,” Politico, 05 October 2023; Michael R. Gordon, Nancy A. Youssef and Jared Malsin, “U.S. Jet Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Syria,” The Wall Street Journal, 05 October 2023)

REGIONAL
EU reaches agreement to phase down fluorinated gases and ozone-depleting substances
On 05 October, negotiators from the Council and the Parliament of the EU reached a provisional political agreement. It aimed at phasing down substances responsible for global warming and ozone layer depletion. The agreement finalized negotiations on fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) and it followed an informal agreement in June regarding ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). It strengthened existing EU legislation. F-gases, used in products like fridges and air conditioning systems, have a much stronger warming impact than CO2. The new rules will further reduce their emissions into the atmosphere and align with the goals of the Paris Agreement. (“Fluorinated gases and ozone-depleting substances: Council and Parliament reach agreement,” European Council, 05 October 2023)

September 2023 records highest global temperatures
On 05 October, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that September 2023 was the warmest on record globally. It reported that the month was warm with an average surface air temperature of 16.38 degree celsius, exceeding the 1991-2020 average by 0.93 degree celsius. It marked the most anomalous warm month in the dataset. The month was around 1.75 degree celsius warmer than the September average for 1850-1900. Globally, temperatures for January-September 2023 were 0.52 degree celsius above average. Europe experienced its warmest September, at 2.51 degree celsius above the 1991-2020 average. Sea surface temperatures over 60 degrees South–60 degrees North reached 20.92 degree celsius, a September record. Antarctic sea ice remained at a record low, while Arctic sea ice ranked fifth lowest. Wetter conditions occurred in parts of Europe, with drier regions in the southeastern USA, Mexico, and Australia. (“Copernicus: September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies; 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record,” Copernicus, 05 October 2023)


04 October 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #637

King Felipe VI asks Pedro Sanchez to form government

Photo : Juanjo Guillen, AFP


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

GERMANY
European Parliament approves Claudia Buch as EU’s chief banking supervisor
On 03 October, the European Parliament voted in favour of Claudia Buch of Germany to become the next chief banking supervisor of the EU. It resulted in overcoming a standoff with the European Central Bank (ECB). The vote, with 357 in favour, 195 against, and 42 abstentions, paves the way for Nadia Calvino, Spain’s Finance Minister, to lead the European Investment Bank (EIB). Buch had faced competition from Margarita Delgado Tejero, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, but was ultimately chosen to avoid two Spain’s leaders in top finance roles. Now approval from EU governments to formally assume her position is awaited, succeeding Italy’s Andrea Enria. (Hannah Brenton, “Parliament votes through Buch as EU banking cop,” Politico, 03 October 2023)

GREENLAND
Indigenous women seek compensation for forced intrauterine devices insertions
On 02 October, dozens of indigenous women and girls in Greenland lodged a complaint with Denmark’s government. They alleged that they had intrauterine devices (IUDs) implanted without their consent during the 1960s and 1970s. They claimed that it was a part of a government campaign to control the indigenous population’s growth. They have termed the procedure a violation of their human rights, causing lasting physical and psychological harm. The women are demanding DKK 300,000 each in compensation. The complaint cites an investigation estimating that around 4,500 IUDs were inserted without consent during that period. Denmark and Greenland have committed to investigating the matter. (Isabella Kwai, “They Were Given IUDs as Children Without Their Consent. Now, They Want Compensation,” The New York Times, 03 September 2023)

ITALY
Tremors in volcanic area near Naples trigger mass evacuation plans
On 02 October, a series of small tremors rattled the Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) region west of Naples, Italy. It prompted the government to revise mass evacuation plans. The area, home to a large caldera, last erupted in 1538. A new eruption could endanger around half a million residents. While experts have noted that seismic activity may intensify, they do not see an imminent eruption risk. Naples, surrounded by volcanoes, faces the challenge of emergency evacuations. Drafting exodus plans for the most dangerous areas is underway, but updating these plans and improving infrastructure remain complex tasks. (Giada Zampano, “A string of volcanic tremors raises fears of mass evacuations in Italy,” Associated Press, 03 September 2023)

POLAND
EU official calls to clarify visa allegations
On 03 October, Margaritis Schinas, European Commission Vice-President, called on Poland to clarify allegations. The allegations are that its consulates in Africa and Asia sold temporary work visas to migrants at high prices. This scheme could undermine the Schengen area’s free travel zone, which relies on trust between its member states. Schinas expressed concern about the alleged cases of fraud and corruption in Poland’s visa system, which could violate EU law, and urged full clarity to restore trust. Poland’s ruling party, facing elections, has denied any scandal but has faced criticism for allegedly admitting large numbers of foreign workers while maintaining anti-migrant rhetoric. (Lorne Cook, “EU demands answers from Poland about visa fraud allegations,” Associated Press, 03 October 2023)

SLOVAKIA
Pressure mounts from European socialists to expel Robert Fico
On 03 October, according to Politico, Europe’s Socialists faced calls to expel Robert Fico, leader of Smer party. He won recent elections on an anti-Ukraine platform. Fico, in line to form a coalition government, advocates ending military support to Ukraine and criticizes EU sanctions on Russia. Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party, linked Fico to Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, and urged the Socialists to clarify their stance. Fico, however, accused the Party of European Socialists (PES) of blackmail. While some Socialist MEPs criticized Smer’s campaign rhetoric, others argue for patience and calm, emphasizing the party’s pro-European stance. (Eddy Wax, “EU Socialists urged to kick out Slovakia’s pro-Russian election winner Robert Fico,” Politico, 03 October 2023)

SPAIN
King Felipe VI asks Pedro Sanchez to form government
On 03 October, according to the BBC, King Felipe VI tasked caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez with forming a government. It comes after his conservative rival, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, failed to do so. Sanchez, the Socialist leader, aims to create a progressive coalition government, which would require support from Catalan nationalist parties. Without their backing, he would fall short of the majority needed, leading to a repeat election. Feijoo’s conservative Popular Party could not secure enough votes in parliament. Sanchez’s potential coalition faces demands for amnesty from Catalan pro-independence groups, a contentious issue with constitutional implications. If unsuccessful, Spain may hold elections in January. (Guy Hedgecoe and Paul Kirby, “Spain's Sánchez pins hopes of becoming PM on Catalan amnesty,” BBC, 03 October 2023)

THE UK
Aims for “foundational” trade deal before 2024 elections with US
On 03 October, according to Politico, Joe Biden, US President, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are planning a “foundational” trade agreement. It is aimed to be concluded before both face re-election in 2024. Negotiations are set to commence this month, with initial chapters to be completed by spring 2024. It is not viewed as a formal free trade agreement by the WTO. However, the proposed deal would address a range of issues including agriculture, labor rights, the environment, supply chains, regulation of services, and digital trade. Concessions on agriculture are a sticking point, with the US seeking changes in farming practices such as chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-injected beef. (Graham Lanktree and Gavin Bade, “Revealed: Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak seek UK/US trade pact before 2024 elections,” Politico, 03 October 2023)

Suella Braverman advocates hard-line immigration policies
On 03 October, Home Secretary Suella Braverman used her keynote speech at the Conservative Party’s annual conference to promote tough immigration policies. She referred to migration as a “hurricane” that could bring “millions more immigrants to these shores, uncontrolled and unmanageable.” Braverman also criticized human rights laws and “woke” critics, vowing to strengthen borders. Her speech focused on immigration and law and order issues as she attempts to position herself as a leader within the party’s authoritarian wing. Some fear her stance could harm the party’s image, but she contends she tells the “blunt unvarnished truth.” (Jill Lawless, “UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman wows some Conservatives and alarms others with hard-line stance,” Associated Press, 03 October 2023)

TURKEY
Arrests 55 suspected members of Kurdistan Workers’ Party
On 03 October, according to Politico, Turkey’s authorities arrested 55 individuals. It comes in response to a suicide bombing outside Ankara’s interior ministry by a member, Hasan Oguz, of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). He was suspected of having links to the group after carrying out raids in 16 provinces. Turkey’s air strikes were also conducted in northern Iraq, targeting 20 PKK sites. It led to condemnation from Abdul Latif Rashid, Iraq’s President, who expressed concern over civilian casualties. He called for a joint security agreement with Turkey. (Laura Hulsemann, “Turkey arrests dozens of suspected Kurdish militants after Ankara suicide bombing,” Politico, 03 October 2023)

REGIONAL
Czech Republic and Austria reinstate border checks
On 03 October, the Czech Republic and Austria temporarily reintroduced border checks with Slovakia to combat migrant flows. These measures will last for ten days initially and aim to prevent smugglers from using alternative routes. The move comes after Germany announced increased police patrols on its border with Poland and the Czech Republic to prevent further migration into the country. Many migrants' transit through both countries' territory on their way to western Europe. (“Austrians and Czechs reintroduce controls on the border with Slovakia to curb migration,” Associated Press, 03 October 2023)


03 October 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #636

Pro-Russian populist wins parliamentary elections in Slovakia

Photo : AP/Darko Bandic


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FINLAND
Government faces protests over welfare cuts
On 02 October, Euronews reported on the increasing pressure on Finland’s right-wing government (National Coalition Party) from trade unions and students. The move comes due to government regulations to cut down on “social welfare, employment rights, job security and restrictions on international students.” Trade unions criticized the government’s actions for favoring the rich with tax cuts while cutting benefits for the poor. It dubbed it a “reverse Robin Hood administration.” Student protests have spread across universities, with demands to remove cuts which increases their financial burdens. Additionally, the government is proposing labor market reforms, which experts argue are overdue but face reluctance from the public. They believe these measures will stimulate economic growth and competitiveness. Despite protests and opposition, the government appears determined to proceed with its policy agenda. Some politicians from the ruling National Coalition Party have framed the student protests as unreasonable demands for more grants and allowances from the state. Sandra Bergqvist, Finland’s Minister for Youth, acknowledges the concerns of the students but emphasized that the government provides students with various forms of support. It includes education grants, housing benefits, subsidized meals, and a student loan guarantee scheme. Trade unions have announced targeted strike actions in response. (David Mac Dougall, “Finland faces autumn of discontent with strikes and protests over government's austerity budget,” Euronews, 02 October 2023)

FRANCE
Southern EU states addresses regional and global challenges in summit
On 02 October, leaders from nine southern EU countries convened in Valletta for the tenth Southern EU Summit. They expressed solidarity with regions affected by recent natural disasters and committed to supporting affected areas. The summit focused on strengthening EU relations with southern Mediterranean partners and addressing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Leaders called for the renewal of EU partnerships in the southern neighbourhood, emphasizing cooperation, diversity acknowledgment, and governance enhancement. The leaders are prioritizing a comprehensive approach to migration by advocating for rapid responses to Mediterranean arrivals. They are negotiating on the pact on migration and asylum, and for stronger external migration efforts. They aim to bolster Euro-Africa cooperation on peace and security, adopting a broader approach encompassing the entire Africa's continent. On climate change, the group emphasizes the urgent need for climate action, focusing on analyzing climate impacts on various sectors and strengthening adaptation efforts, disaster management, and a just transition to address climate challenges and leverage them as growth opportunities. They also condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine and called for its withdrawal. Discussions also included security, irregular migration, climate change, economic governance, single market completion, and trade policy. (“Declaration of the 10th Summit of the southern countries of the European Union,” Elysee.fr, 02 October 2023)

POLAND
Opposition holds massive rally ahead of election
On 01 October, Poland’s opposition, Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk, a former prime minister, organized a massive rally in Warsaw. The rally called “Million Hearts march” claimed over a million participants. Despite the show of support, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party maintains a significant lead in polls, with PiS at 38 per cent and Civic Coalition at 30 per cent. Tusk aimed to boost opposition morale, but many attendees expressed skepticism about changing the election’s outcome. PiS leaders, meanwhile, warned of dire consequences if the opposition wins. The election on 15 October could see PiS continue its rule or require coalition-building for a third term. (Jan Cienski, “Huge but glum: Poland’s opposition puts a million people on the streets,” Politico, 02 September 2023)

SLOVAKIA
Pro-Russian populist wins parliamentary elections
On 01 October, former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his leftist Smer party emerged victorious in early parliamentary elections in Slovakia. With 22.9 per cent of the votes, Smer secured 42 seats in the 150-seat Parliament. Fico campaigned on a pro-Russian and anti-American platform and may become prime minister again. He has vowed to withdraw Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine in Russia’s war, a move that could strain EU and NATO unity. The election was seen as a test of Slovakia’s support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Fico’s critics fear his return to power could align Slovakia with Hungary and Poland in their sceptical stance towards the EU and NATO. (Daniel Bellamy, “Pro-Russian party wins Slovakia's election, but not outright,” Euronews, 01 September 2023)

SPAIN
Minister meet ahead of COP28
On 02 October, Energy Minister Teresa Ribera cautioned that COP28 talks would pose challenges. She emphasized the need for a global response to climate issues at a conference in Madrid. The conference was attended by climate and energy ministers ahead of the Dubai conference. Spain, holding the EU Council’s rotating presidency, advocates for an international coalition to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels. The COP28, is scheduled for 30 November to 12 December in Dubai. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), it faces demands for tripling global investments in renewables, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and supporting clean energy financing in emerging countries. Meanwhile, the EU is striving to devise a plan for phasing out fossil fuels by mid-month. Sultan al-Jaber, COP28’s President-Designate, defended hosting the talks in Abu Dhabi and called for a phasedown of fossil fuels as part of a comprehensive energy transition. (“COP28: Climate leaders meet in Madrid ahead of summit,” Deutsche Welle, 02 September 2023)

Sanchez next in line after Feijoo's shortfall to form government
On 02 October, political party leaders met with King Felipe VI ahead of new government formation attempts. It is following July’s election, which resulted in a fragmented parliament. Alberto Nunez Feijoo of the conservative People’s Party narrowly led in the election, but his coalition bid was rejected. His bid was unsuccessful as he could not garner enough support in the Spanish parliament, needing 176 out of 350 lawmakers’ votes for an absolute majority. Despite the backing of the far-right Vox party and some smaller parties, Feijoo fell short with only 172 votes, leaving the Spanish Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE), led by Pedro Sanchez, in a better position to potentially form a government. Caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, whose PSOE party won 122 seats, was asked by the king to form a government. Sanchez needs support from Catalan parties, including the left-wing ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) and conservative Junts. They have demanded a referendum on self-determination and amnesty for 2017 secession push participants. He faces a 27 November deadline to form a coalition or hold fresh elections. (“Spain: Pedro Sanchez next in line to try to form government,” Deutsche Welle, 02 September 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Wopke Hoekstra faces MEP scrutiny for EU climate role
On 02 September, Dutch Commissioner-designate for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, pledged to slash EU greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90 per cent by 2040. During his confirmation hearing before the European Parliament, he vowed to introduce measures to curb climate change. It includes a tax on aviation fuel. Hoekstra faced criticism from environmental groups and some MEPs who questioned his track record and environmental credentials. This criticism stemmed from his past associations with the oil industry and his handling of state aid to the airline KLM, which lacked environmental conditions. Fifty climate action groups expressed their concerns in a letter to the European Parliament, contending that Hoekstra was ill-suited for the role due to his perceived lack of expertise in climate issues and his close alignment with fossil fuel interests. During his confirmation hearing in front of the European Parliament, Hoekstra faced rigorous questioning about his previous employment with energy giant Shell and his economic policies as the former Dutch finance minister. The left-wing Socialists and Democrats group within the EU parliament pledged to subject Hoekstra to a challenging confirmation process. However, he insisted he was committed to the EU’s climate targets and promised to conclude pending climate legislation before the 2024 European elections. (“Hearing of Commissioner-designate Wopke Hoekstra,” European Parliament, 02 September 2023; Mared Gwyn Jones, “EU climate chief nominee Wopke Hoekstra vows more ambition in European Parliament hearing,” Euronews, 02 September 2023)

THE UK
Enhances strategic partnership with Kazakhstan
On 02 October, the Minister for Central Asia, Leo Docherty, and Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister met in Astana. The meet was for the Seventh UK-Kazakhstan Strategic Dialogue. Discussions centered on bolstering bilateral ties, with a focus on trade diversification in critical minerals, hydrogen technology, and beef. The UK expressed support for Kazakhstan’s domestic reforms and highlighted its role in tackling economic and security challenges. Both are set to sign a bilateral Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Cooperation, further elevating their partnership. Kazakhstan is a significant partner for the UK in regional dialogue and energy cooperation with Europe. (Madina Usmanova, “Kazakhstan, UK to sign agreement on strategic partnership, cooperation,” Trend News Agency, 02 October 2023; “7th UK-Kazakhstan Strategic Dialogue,” Gov.uk, 02 October 2023)

Defence minister signs GBP four billion contract for AUKUS submarine
On 01 October, Defence Minister Grant Shapps announced a GBP four billion contract with BAE Systems for a nuclear-powered AUKUS attack submarine. The AUKUS partnership, involving Australia, the UK, and the US, aims to counter China’s military expansion. BAE Systems will begin work on the submarine, which will be produced in the UK before shifting to Australia, late this decade. The contract ensures funding until 2028, bolstering the UK’s national security efforts in the Indo-Pacific region. (“UK: €4.6 billion AUKUS nuclear sub contract to counter China,” Deutsche Welle, 02 September 2023)

TURKEY
Airstrikes target Kurdish rebels
On 01 October, Turkey conducted airstrikes on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq after a suicide blast hit Ankara’s interior ministry. The government claimed to have destroyed 20 targets and “neutralized” many militants from the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebel group. However, the PKK said the bombing in Ankara was carried out by one of its affiliated groups. Air strikes targeted PKK positions in Mount Qandil near Iran’s border. The explosion in Ankara occurred just hours before parliament was due to reconvene after a summer break. The attack was described by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as “the final flutters of terrorism.” The PKK has been engaged in a long-running conflict with Turkey, with over 40,000 deaths since 1984. (Alex Binley, “Turkey strikes Kurdish rebels after Ankara blast,” BBC, 02 October 2023)


30 September 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #634

Mediterranean leaders discuss migration amid EU deadlock in Malta

Photo : Darrin Zammit Lupi/Reuters


FINLAND
Kaja Kallas discuss on security and EU issues with Petteri Orpo

On 29 September, Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s Prime Minister visited Finland on an invitation from Petteri Orpo, Prime Minister. They discussed topics such as border security, the Baltic Sea region’s security situation, and support for Ukraine. Their meeting is particularly significant given both countries’ NATO membership. They also addressed current EU matters before the informal European Council meeting in Granada, Spain, next week. (“Estonian Prime Minister Kallas to visit Finland,” Finnish Government, 29 September 2023)

IRELAND
Government seizes largest cocaine haul
On 29 September, Ireland’s authorities intercepted a cargo ship off the Cork coast, seizing over 2.2 tonnes of cocaine valued at EUR 157 million. It marked the country’s largest drug seizure. Two men, one from the UK and the other from Ukraine, have been charged with conspiracy to import drugs. The men were rescued after their fishing boat ran aground on a sandbank off Ireland’s southeast coast while attempting to recover cargo from the Panama-registered freighter “MV Matthew.” This year has witnessed several significant drug busts in Europe, including a record seizure of eight tonnes of cocaine in the Netherlands and a nine-tonne haul in Spain. (“Two charged after record €150m cocaine seizure off Irish coast,” Euronews, 29 September 2023)

MALTA
Mediterranean countries leaders discuss migration amid EU deadlock 
On 29 September, leaders from nine Mediterranean and southern European countries gathered in Malta to address the ongoing migration crisis. The EU’s failure to agree on changes to migration laws has heightened political pressure on countries like Italy, Greece, and Malta, which are bearing the brunt of the crisis. Disagreements persist among the nine countries on how to handle the situation. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, held separate talks with Giorgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister, and Emmanuel Macron, French President. They explored options like expanding naval missions in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, UNICEF reported a threefold increase in deaths on the central Mediterranean route. The migration issue remains a significant challenge for the EU, with member states divided on how to address it effectively. (“EU's Mediterranean leaders meet as migrant numbers rise,” Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2023)

PORTUGAL
Government plans to sell majority stake in Transports Aereos Portugueses (TAP)
On 29 September, Finance Minister Fernando Medina announced that Portugal plans to privatize at least 51 per cent of state-owned airline TAP. It is aiming to bolster the national aviation sector. Major European airline groups, including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, and Iberia owner IAG, have expressed interest in the privatization. These airlines see opportunities for TAP’s network, particularly its routes to and from South America, where the market is expected to grow significantly. TAP, which recently returned to profitability, is being restructured under an approved bailout, and the exact stake to be retained by the state is yet to be determined. The privatization process is expected to conclude by mid-2024. (Verónica Romano, “Portugal puts national airline TAP up for sale,” Euronews, 29 September 2023)

SERBIA
White house calls for Serbia’s military drawdown amid Kosovo tensions
On 29 September, the White House urged Serbia to withdraw its military forces from the Kosovo border. It comes following an attack on a Serbia’s Orthodox monastery in northern Kosovo. The incident has heightened tensions in the longstanding territorial conflict between Kosovo and Serbia. Western officials fear that the situation could escalate into a military conflict. The US has called for both governments to engage in diplomatic dialogue. It is to prevent further conflict and has increased the presence of NATO troops in the area to maintain stability. (Katie Rogers, “White House Warns Serbian Military to Leave Kosovo Border,” The New York Times, 29 September 2023)

SPAIN
Centre-right leader Feijoo fails in second attempt to form government
On 29 September, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the leader of Spain’s centre-right Popular Party (PP), fell short in his second attempt to secure parliament’s backing to form a government. The vote resulted in 177 lawmakers against and 172 in favour, with one invalid vote. Feijoo had aimed to establish a government led by his PP with support from the right-wing Vox party, but they lacked a majority. Spain’s fragmented political landscape, with 11 different parties holding seats, makes it challenging to secure majority backing, and new elections may become increasingly likely as a result. (“Spain's Feijoo fails in last bid to form government,” Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Federal Council adopts sanctions against Iran
On 29 September, the Federal Council of Switzerland adopted further sanctions against Iran. It is due to its continued military support for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the use of Iranian drones by Russia. These sanctions align Switzerland with the EU, which implemented similar measures earlier. The sanctions prohibit the sale, supply, export, and transit of components used in the production of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). It includes financial and travel sanctions against entities connected to Iran’s UAV program. (“Ukraine: Switzerland tightens sanctions in connection with the supply of Iranian drones to Russia,” The Federal Council, 29 September 2023)

REGIONAL
Germany, Poland, and Czech Republic forms task force to combat human smuggling
On 29 September, Germany, in collaboration with Poland and the Czech Republic, created a joint task force. It is aimed at combating inhumane human smuggling and illegal immigration. Nancy Faeser, Germany’s Interior Minister, stated that they intend to disrupt smuggling operations profiting from people’s suffering by increasing police patrols on their borders. The task force, led by Europol’s EMPACT program, will involve German, Czech, and Polish police working together across borders. It is to identify smuggling routes and curb illegal immigration. This move comes amid shifting migration policies in Germany and the upcoming elections in the state of Hesse. (Laura Hulsemann, “Germany, Poland, Czech Republic start task force on illegal immigration,” Politico, 29 September 2023)


29 September 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #633

France proposes autonomy to Corsica

Photo : Pascal Pochard-Casabianca, Pool via AP


FINLAND
Prime Minister to discuss EU issues in Paris
On 28 September, the Government Communications Department reported on an upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Petteri Orpo Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, and Élisabeth Borne, France’s Prime Minister, in Paris on 04 October. It will discuss current EU issues and bilateral concerns. Key topics include enhancing competitiveness, support for Ukraine, European defence, migration, future EU enlargement, and the new European Commission’s program. The meeting underscores Finland’s commitment to EU cooperation and its focus on competitiveness, clean energy, and European defence. It reflects broader discussions on EU priorities and challenges. (“Prime Minister Orpo to meet French President and Prime Minister,” Finnish Government, 28 September 2023)

FRANCE
President proposes Corsican autonomy within France’s state
On 28 September, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a constitutional text to grant autonomy to Corsica within the French Republic. He emphasized that it would not entail separation from the state. The proposal comes after months of discussions between the government and Corsican political leaders. Macron pledged a constitutional and organic text to be presented within six months. It will grant Corsican elected representatives the ability to define standards and transfer powers. It will be under the supervision of the Council of State and the Constitutional Council. The move aims to address Corsican demands, including legislative powers, Corsican residency status, language promotion. It also aims to recognize Corsican identity, without compromising the French Republic. (Gael Camba, “Historic move as Macron offers Corsica autonomy 'without disengagement from the state',” Euronews, 28 September 2023) 

GERMANY
EU President calls for Global Financing Pact at Berlin Global Dialogue
On 28 September, Charles Michel, EU President gave an address at the Berlin Global Dialogue. He emphasized the urgency of addressing climate change and digital transformation as fundamental challenges for the future. He highlighted the EU’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 and stressed the need for legal stability, regulations, and legal certainty to attract investment. Michel called for a new global financing pact, likening it to a “new Bretton Woods moment.” He also emphasized the need for reforms to ensure inclusivity and adequate capitalization of institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. He underlined the EU’s role in promoting global cooperation and multilateralism. (“Address of President Charles Michel at the Berlin Global Dialogue,” European Council, 28 September 2023)

GREECE
Second powerful storm floods Central Greece
On 28 September, a second powerful storm, named Elias, caused extensive flooding in central Greece. It particularly affected the port city of Volos and surrounding areas. This comes just weeks after another Mediterranean storm resulted in flash floods that left 16 people dead. Additionally, it caused over EUR two billion in damage to farms and infrastructure. Achilleas Beos, Volos Mayor, described the situation as the entire city turning into a lake and called it a dire emergency. The flooding follows Greece’s hottest summer on record and devastating wildfires, raising concerns about the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. (“Greece: Storm Elias wreaks havoc on city of Volos,” Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2023)

IRELAND
Minister for Justice discusses cooperation against organized crime with Colombia
On 28 September, Minister for Justice Helen McEntee held a bilateral meeting with Iván Velásquez Gómez, Colombia’s Minister of National Defence. McEntee emphasized the importance of international cooperation in tackling transnational organized crime. She highlighted the success of Ireland’s law enforcement agency, An Garda Síochána. It helped in building international alliances to combat organized crime groups operating across borders. The ministers discussed the need for high-level political dialogue and regular meetings to implement joint declarations. It also discussed monitoring progress in addressing transnational organized crime effectively. McEntee reaffirmed the Irish government’s support for such efforts, including investment and establishing a network of Garda Liaison Officers worldwide. (“Minister McEntee attends meeting of EU Home Affairs Ministers (JHA Council) in Brussels,” gov.ie, 28 September 2023)

SWEDEN
Former Prime Minister proposes military involvement to tackle rising gang violence
On 28 September, former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson suggested deploying the military to combat the increasing gang violence in the country. In the past 24 hours, three people have died in shootings and bombings. Andersson is an opposition figure from the center-left Social Democrats. He proposed that the military could assist in surveillance tasks currently performed by the police, leveraging their technical expertise. She also mentioned the possibility of seeking additional police support from neighbouring countries such as Norway, Denmark, or Finland. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer found the idea intriguing, while Defence Minister Pål Jonson stated that there were no immediate plans for military deployment. (Laura Hulsemann, “Send in troops to end violence in Sweden, ex-PM urges,” Politico, 28 September 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Tripartite dialogue on labor with China
On 28 September, Switzerland and China held their fifth tripartite labor dialogue in Bern. Boris Zürcher, Head of the Labor Directorate, hosted a delegation from the Chinese Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MoHRSS) along with Chinese social partners. They discussed new work forms, worker protection, and the impact of digitalization on skilled labor. Switzerland expressed concerns about labor issues in China, particularly in Xinjiang. It urges compliance with ILO Core Conventions on forced labor. Social partners in Switzerland supported these demands. (“Tripartite dialogue on labour and employment issues between Switzerland and China,” The Federal Council, 28 September 2023)

THE UK
Falling of Iconic Sycamore Tree at Hadrian’s Wall in Northumberland 
On 28 September, the famous sycamore tree located along Hadrian’s Wall in Northumberland, England, known as the “Robin Hood Tree,” was found deliberately felled at its base. The tree, a popular and photographed landmark, had stood for centuries. Authorities have initiated an investigation into the incident, and a 16-year-old boy was arrested in connection with the tree’s destruction. The incident has sparked outrage in the community and saddened many who cherished the iconic tree. The tree also gained fame in the film “Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves” and the music video for Bryan Adams’ song “(Everything I do) I do it for you.” (“UK: Hadrian's Wall Sycamore Gap tree 'deliberately felled',” Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
UNHCR reports over 2,500 deaths or missing migrants in the Mediterranean in 2023
On 28 September, the UNHCR revealed that more than 2,500 migrants have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean while attempting to reach Europe in 2023. It is seen as a significant increase from the same period last year when 1,680 were reported dead or missing. The UNHCR emphasized the dire risks migrants and refugees face throughout their journeys. It includes death and human rights violations. Meanwhile, EU interior ministers met in Brussels to discuss the increasing influx of migrants crossing the Mediterranean into Europe. Negotiations on comprehensive reforms to the EU’s common asylum system remain unresolved. (“Over 2,500 migrants lost to Mediterranean in 2023: UN,” Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2023)


28 September 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #632

Spain's Popular party leader falls short in Prime Minister bid

Photo : Associated Press


EM In Brief
Rishika Yadav

GERMANY
Border controls amid rising political pressure
On 27 September, Germany announced the strengthening of border controls with Poland and the Czech Republic. It is due to increased pressure to address rising numbers of people crossing into the country’s eastern regions. The move comes ahead of important state elections. Immigration has become a major political issue in Germany. The mainstream parties acknowledge the need to address the growing number of asylum seekers. The government’s willingness to implement border checks reflects a shift from previous policies under Chancellor Angela Merkel. It is also seen as a response to the rise of right-wing populism. (Graham Bowley, “Germany Puts in Place Tougher Checks to Control Migration,” The New York Times, 27 September 2023)

Ban on Artgemeinschaft for spreading Nazi ideology
On 27 September, according to BBC, Germany has banned the far-right sect “Artgemeinschaft” for disseminating Nazi ideology to children and young people. The group, described as “deeply racist and antisemitic” by Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, promoted racial preservation. The group used Nazi-era literature, and organized cultural events to spread its ideology. Police have conducted raids across 12 German states linked to the group. This move follows the recent outlawing of the neo-Nazi group “Hammerskins.” Faeser emphasized the diverse nature of right-wing extremism and the ongoing challenge it poses. An estimated 38,800 individuals are active in the country’s right-wing extremist scene. (Michael Ertl, “Germany cracks down on neo-Nazi sect Artgemeinschaft for targeting children,” BBC, 27 September 2023)

PORTUGAL
Young Portuguese sue European countries over climate change inaction
On 27 September, six young Portuguese individuals, aged 11 to 24, filed a case with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). They allege that 32 countries, including EU member states and others, have failed to adequately address climate change. Their complaint is based on the impact of wildfires in Portugal in 2017. It is also based on the ongoing consequences of climate change on their lives and health. The claimants argue that the inaction violates their rights under the ECHR and seek to compel national courts to reduce carbon emissions. This case highlights the growing use of legal avenues by young activists to hold governments accountable for climate change inaction. It could set a precedent for climate-related human rights cases. (“Climate change: Young people sue 32 European nations,” Deutsche Welle, 27 September 2023)

SPAIN
Popular party leader falls short in Prime Minister bid
On 27 September, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, leader of Spain’s Popular Party, failed to secure the 176 votes required to become prime minister in a parliamentary vote. His party won the most seats in the July 2023 general election. However, Feijoo struggled to form a coalition government due to his opposition to concessions for separatist parties. If he fails in a second vote, Pedro Sanchez, acting Prime Minister, may have a chance to stay in office. He has received support from regionalist parties, including Catalan separatists. (“Spain: Conservative leader Feijoo loses first bid for PM,” Deutsche Welle, 27 September 2023)

THE UK
Trade deal with India to exclude labour and environmental commitments
On 27 September, according to Politico, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s trade agreement with India will not include legally binding commitments on labor rights or environmental standards. It is raising concerns among British businesses and unions. The finalized labour and environment chapters of the deal lack enforceable dispute resolution powers. It will potentially undermine UK workers’ rights and climate efforts. Critics argue that the deal could disadvantage British firms as India’s counterparts adhere to less stringent labour and environmental standards. Additionally, the absence of binding commitments has drawn criticism for sidelining stakeholders and unions from trade talks. The omission of these provisions highlights the ongoing debate over the balance between trade liberalization and regulatory standards in international agreements. (Graham Lanktree, “Rishi Sunak to sign UK-India trade deal without binding worker or environment pledges,” Politico, 27 September 2023)

Oil and gas exploration approved in North Sea’s rosebank field
On 27 September, North Sea Transition Authority announced that the UK granted development and production consent for oil and gas exploration. It is in the North Sea’s Rosebank field to Equinor and Ithaca Energy. This move aims to enhance energy security and stabilize prices amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Production is expected to commence in 2026, potentially yielding 300 million barrels of oil. Critics argue that this decision contradicts climate goals and risks missing emissions targets. The UK’s approval of North Sea oil and gas exploration is drawing criticism from environmentalists and opposition. It comes due to particularly given recent climate policy adjustments. (“UK approves controversial North Sea oil and gas production,” Deutsche Welle, 27 September 2023; Lottie Limb, “UK’s new Rosebank oil field won’t make a ‘scrap of difference’ to energy bills, critics say,” Euronews, 27 September 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU and US leaders to meet in Washington on 20 October
On 27 September, according to Politico, a significant meeting was scheduled for 20 October in Washington. It will involve Joe Biden, the US President, Charles Michel, European Council President, and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President. This gathering marks a crucial event, with the last official EU-US summit occurring in June 2021. While Brussels and Washington have been collaborating closely, differences remain. It is particularly on trade policy and disputes over steel and aluminium tariffs. Failure to resolve these issues by 31 October could lead to the reimposition of trade tariffs. Additionally, the timing of this meeting affects the China-EU summit. The European Commission insisted it must follow the transatlantic meeting. The outcome will likely have ripple effects on global trade dynamics and diplomatic engagements with China. (Barbara Moens, Jonathan Lemire, Suzanne Lynch and Jacopo Barigazzi, “EU and US leaders set for October 20 summit,” Politico, 27 September 2023)


27 September 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #631

France announces climate plan to reduce emissions

Photo : AP/Michel Euler, Pool


FRANCE
President announces climate plan to reduce emissions
On 25 September, President Emmanuel Macron revealed a new climate plan. It aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and meet climate commitments within seven years. Macron stated that France’s goal to reduce emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels is attainable. However, it requires a significant acceleration of efforts, targeting a five per cent annual reduction. The plan includes shutting down the country’s remaining coal-burning plants and converting them to biomass energy by 2027. Macron also aims to promote electric vehicle use, offering affordable leases and supporting domestic production. Critics argue that the plan lacks ambition in addressing the climate emergency. (“Cheap EV leasing and lower energy bills: Macron unveils plan to meet France’s 2030 green goals,Euronews, 26 September 2023)

SWEDEN
Explosions took place in Central Sweden amid gang feud
On 26 September, two powerful explosions, believed to be connected to a feud between criminal gangs, occurred in central Sweden. The blasts in Hasselby and Linkoping are part of a growing problem in Sweden, with increasing gang violence, shootings, and bombings. The Swedish government plans to hold a meeting to address the issue and identify quick measures to combat gang violence. So far this year, Sweden has seen 261 shootings, resulting in 36 deaths and 73 injuries. The government aims to curtail criminals’ access to explosive materials as part of its efforts to address the problem. (“Two explosions rip through residential buildings in Sweden reportedly linked to a gang feud,” Euronews, 26 September 2023)

THE UK
UNHCR rebukes Home Secretary’s claims on human rights laws
On 26 September, the UN’s refugee agency criticized Home Secretary Suella Braverman. She suggested that global leaders have failed to reform human rights laws due to fear of being labelled as “racist or illiberal.” Braverman also questioned the criteria for granting refugee status, claiming that facing discrimination alone should not be enough. The UNHCR issued a statement defending the 1951 refugee convention and highlighted the UK’s asylum claim backlog. The Refugee Council disputed Braverman’s claim of lowering the asylum threshold based on discrimination and called her statements unsupported by evidence. (Rajeev Syal and Ben Quinn, “UN rebukes Suella Braverman over her attack on refugee convention,” The Guardian, 26 September 2023)

TURKEY
President links Sweden’s NATO bid to US F-16 sale
On 26 September, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey would approve Sweden’s NATO membership. He demanded the US to proceed with the sale of F-16 fighter jets and related technology to Turkey. Erdogan's recent comments explicitly link Sweden’s NATO bid to the US F-16 sale, despite previous efforts to separate the issues. Sweden’s NATO membership requires approval from all alliance members. (Ben Hubbard, “Erdogan says Turkey’s parliament will ratify Sweden’s entry into NATO if the U.S. sells Turkey fighter jets,” The New York Times, 26 September 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
UEFA allows Russia back in U17 competitions
On 26 September, according to the BBC, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), decided to allow Russia to participate in U17 competitions. UEFA is European football’s governing body. The move aims to avoid punishing young athletes for the actions of adults. The Football Association (FA) of England, however, disagrees with Uefa’s decision. It stated that England teams will not play against Russia. (“Uefa allows Russian U17 teams to compete in Europe despite Ukraine war,” BBC, 26 September 2023)


25 September 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #629

France withdraws troops and ambassador from Niger

Photo : AFP


EM Daily Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
President announces on  withdrawal of troops and ambassador from Niger after coup
On 24 September, President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of France’s troops from Niger within the next few months. France has also decided to withdraw its ambassador, who had been effectively under house arrest in Niamey. The military cooperation between France and Niger is said to be over. The military soldiers had demanded the withdrawal of France’s troops involved in anti-terror operations in North Africa. France initially resisted until requested to do so by the deposed Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s President. (Clea Caulcutt, “France withdraws troops from Niger,” Politico, 24 September 2023)

Protests against police violence and racism
On 23 September, tens of thousands of people demonstrated across France in protests against police violence, racism, and social inequalities. The protests were initially triggered by the police killing of 17-year-old Nahel Merzouk in June. Besides demanding justice for Merzouk, various groups also rallied for immigration rights, affordable housing, and economic justice. While unions reported 80,000 participants, police estimated around 31,800. Some clashes occurred in Paris, where a group of protesters vandalized a bank and attacked a police car. The death of Merzouk and police violence have raised concerns and led to calls for reforms. (“France: Protests against police brutality turn violent,” Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2023)

GERMANY
Car manufacturers concerned about EU’s anti-subsidy probe on China’s electric vehicles
On 23 September, Economy Minister Robert Habeck expressed concerns that Germany’s car makers may face retaliation. The retaliation can occur if the EU imposes duties on China’s electric vehicles as a result of an anti-subsidy investigation. He acknowledged a divide between France and Germany on the matter. France is pushing for the investigation, while German automakers fear the consequences, given their significant presence in China's market. Habeck’s comments highlight the complexity of the issue and the challenge of aligning the interests of EU member states. The probe risks escalating trade tensions between the EU and China. (Hans Von Der Burchard, “German carmakers ‘afraid’ of China retaliation, economy minister warns,” Politico, 23 September 2023)

Chancellor seeks clarification from Poland over visa scandal allegations
On 23 September, Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Poland to address allegations of a visa-for-bribes scandal. He expressed concerns that it could exacerbate Germany’s migration issues. The Poland’s government faces allegations that consulate operatives may have granted thousands of Poland’s temporary work visas and EU access in exchange for bribes. The EU has also urged Poland to clarify the matter, warning of potential violations of EU law. Poland has initiated an audit at its Ministry of Foreign Affairs and terminated contracts with outsourcing companies handling visa applications. (Hanne Cokelaere, “Germany’s Scholz hints at checks on Polish border amid visa-for-bribes scandal,” Politico, 24 September 2023)

KOSOVO
Police ends standoff with gunmen 
On 23 September, a confrontation between gunmen and Kosovo police at a monastery near the Serbian border was concluded. It began when a Kosovo police patrol was ambushed, leaving one officer dead and another injured. The assailants fled to a nearby monastery, engaging in gun battles with police. At least three attackers were killed. Prime Minister Albin Kurti linked the attackers to Serbia, alleging political, financial, and logistical support from Belgrade. This incident may exacerbate ethnic tensions between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo. Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat and Jeff Hovenier, US ambassador in Pristina have both condemned the attack. (“Kosovo monastery siege ends with 4 dead,” Deutsche Welle, 24 September 2023)

SCOTLAND
Salmon farming crisis amid marine heatwave
On 24 September, according to Euronews, Scotland is grappling with an unprecedented Category 4 marine heatwave since March 2023. It is causing mass marine mortalities. Rising sea temperatures have led to a proliferation of sea lice infestations on salmon farms. Investigations have revealed fish covered in invasive sea lice on several farms. Sea lice, which feed on salmon, thrive in warmer waters and can weaken fish, potentially spreading to wild salmon populations. Salmon deaths doubled in 2022, and by September 2023, 8.9 million fish had died prematurely on salmon farms. Rising sea temperatures also pose threats from jellyfish, impacting aquaculture globally. (Daniel Bellamy, “Salmon fishing in Scotland threatened by rising sea temperatures,” Euronews, 24 September 2023)

SPAIN
Massive protest in Madrid against potential Catalan amnesty
On 24 September, demonstrators gathered in Madrid to protest. The protest was against reports that acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez might grant amnesty to Catalan separatists in exchange for political support. The rally was organized by the conservative People’s Party (PP), and authorities estimated around 40,000 attendees, while the PP claimed 60,000. The PP, which narrowly won Spain's election in July, lacks a majority in parliament and needs the support of regionalist parties. The party of Carles Puigdemont, exiled former Catalonia leader, Junts per Catalunya, holds crucial seats and demands amnesty as a condition for support. (“Spain: 40,000 protest possible amnesty for Catalan leaders,” Deutsche Welle, 24 September 2023)

THE UK
Army on standby as police officers hand in weapons in protest
On 24 September, several London police officers handed in their weapons in support of a fellow officer charged with murder. The UK’s Ministry of Defence has put the army on standby to assist police with specific tasks. Police in Britain are not routinely armed. This move follows the appearance in court of a firearms officer charged with the fatal shooting of a young Black man, Chris Kaba. The protest has raised concerns about the impact on police decision-making and allegations of institutional racism within the Metropolitan Police. (“UK army put on standby as London police hand in weapons,” Deutsche Welle, 24 September 2023)


23 September 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #628

Norway launches Global Ocean Surveillance Program to combat fisheries crime

Photo : Government.no


EM In Brief
Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
Paris prosecutor requests trial for Marine Le Pen on embezzlement charges
On 22 September, the Paris prosecutor’s office requested a trial for far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Additionally, trial over 20 other members of her National Rally party on charges of embezzling funds from the European Parliament between 2004 and 2016, is requested. The case revolves around allegations that party members misused parliamentary funds for non-parliamentary purposes. While the prosecutor’s request does not guarantee a trial, it carries significant penalties. It included a possible ten year prison sentence, a EUR one million fine, and a ten year ban from public office for Le Pen. The decision comes amid preparations for the next French presidential election and European Parliament elections. (Roger Cohen, “French Far-Right Leader May Face Trial on Embezzlement Charges,” The New York Times, 22 September 2023)

NORWAY
Launches Global Ocean Surveillance Program to combat fisheries crime
On 22 September, the Government of Norway reported that it is initiating a worldwide ocean surveillance program to combat fisheries crime. It will provide over a third of coastal countries access to Norway’s satellite data and expertise for monitoring their waters and detecting illegal fishing activities. The program aims to tackle transnational organized financial crime that depletes ocean resources worth billions of Norwegian Krone (NOK). These crimes threaten maritime ecosystems and the livelihoods of local communities. Norway will share AIS data from its satellites with countries in the Blue Justice Community. It will offer the information free of charge to help them identify and combat fisheries crime, with support from Norway's tracking centre. (“Norwegian satellites to detect illegal fishing,” Government.no, 22 September 2023)

POLAND
Environment agency grants permit for first nuclear power plant
On 22 September, Climate Minister Anna Moskwa announced that Poland issued an environmental permit for its inaugural nuclear power facility. It marks a significant milestone for the country’s energy security. The project, planned for the Baltic coast, aims to commence construction in 2026 and become operational by 2040. The move is part of Poland’s effort to reduce its heavy reliance on coal, which currently supplies 69 per cent of its energy. Poland's Nuclear Power Programme envisions the development of up to six reactors across two or three sites. It generates six to nine gigawatts of energy. The US is also assisting Poland in adopting new nuclear technology to transition from coal. (“'This is a milestone': Poland’s environment agency greenlights country’s first nuclear power plant,” Euronews, 22 September 2023)

SPAIN
EU delays decision on official status for Catalan, Galician, and Basque languages
On 22 September, according to Euronews, EU ministers postponed a decision on granting official EU language status to Catalan, Galician, and Basque. They cited the need for more legal, financial, and administrative details. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez requested the inclusion of these languages among the 24 official EU languages. However, other EU governments expressed concerns over the potential translation and interpretation costs. (Stefan Grobe, “State of the Union: Spain puts regional languages on the agenda as migration returns,” Euronews, 22 September 2023)

National football team removes “Women’s” label in bid for equality
On 22 September, according to Euronews, the Spanish Football Federation eliminated the term “women’s football” from its national team’s name. It signals a shift towards gender equality in the sport. The move comes after a dispute between the federation and its women’s World Cup-winning team. It was triggered by the former president’s inappropriate behavior towards a player during a trophy ceremony. The men’s and women’s teams will now be known as “Selección Española de fútbol” or “Spain’s national football team.” This change aims to represent a conceptual shift, emphasizing that football is universal, regardless of gender. Other countries like England and the US have already adopted gender-neutral naming conventions. (“Spanish football drops the word 'women' from the national team's title,” Euronews, 22 September 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Supports Kosovo-Serbia normalisation process
On 22 September, President Alain Berset held discussions with Albin Kurti, Kosovo’s Prime Minister, emphasizing the country’s support for the EU-led normalization process between Kosovo and Serbia. They called for the implementation of agreements reached in Brussels and Ohrid this year, stressing the need for credible steps and pragmatism from both sides. Switzerland backs Kosovo’s desire to join the Council of Europe to ensure access to the European Court of Human Rights for all inhabitants. Switzerland, the second-largest source of foreign investment in Kosovo, seeks to strengthen bilateral relations, especially in economic cooperation, benefiting from close ties to the Kosovo diaspora in Switzerland. (“President Alain Berset receives Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti,” The Federal Council, 22 September 2023)

THE UK
Regulators signals approval for Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard
On 22 September, according to Euronews, Microsoft's USD 69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, a video game giant, is nearing approval. It will be approved by UK competition regulators following a restructured deal. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has stated that the revised proposal addresses previous concerns regarding competition in the cloud gaming sector. However, some concerns still linger, and Microsoft has presented remedies to address them. The CMA is currently seeking feedback on these solutions before making a final decision. This development signifies progress in reversing the earlier decision to block the acquisition and removes one of the final hurdles for the historic tech transaction. (Daniel Harper, “Call of Duty: UK regulators close in on Microsoft-Activision deal,” Euronews, 22 September 2023)

REGIONAL
France and Germany accelerate next-Generation battle tank project
On 21 September, France and Germany pledged to advance their joint Main Ground Combat System (MGCS), a next-generation battle tank project, by the end of 2023. The project has experienced delays but is gaining momentum. Both countries will define key aspects and leading roles and aim to sign contracts by the end of 2023, opening the door for other countries to join. The MGCS, launched in 2017, aims to replace the Leclerc and Leopard 2 tanks with a versatile system. It includes manned and unmanned modules, laser technology, drones, AI, and cybersecurity measures. Italy and the Netherlands have expressed interest in participating. (Laura Kayali and Caleb Larson, “France and Germany give new push to joint next-generation battle tank,” Politico, 22 September 2023)

EU reimposes fine on Intel for antitrust violations
On 22 September, according to Euronews, the European Commission reinstated a fine of approximately EUR 376.36 million on Intel. It is for breaching antitrust rules in the computer chips market. The fine pertains to Intel’s practices concerning its dominant position in x86 central processing units (CPUs). The EU alleges it excluded competitors from the relevant market. While the European Court of Justice overruled a 2009 Commission decision on Intel’s rebate practices in 2022. It reaffirmed that Intel’s practices of paying manufacturers to halt the release of products containing rival x86 CPUs constituted an abuse of dominant market position under EU rules. Intel has not appealed this part of the 2022 ruling. (Aisling Ní Chúláin, “EU fines Intel €376.36 million for breaching antitrust rules in computer chip market,” Euronews, 22 September 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU unlocks funding for Tunisia amid controversial migrant deal
On 22 September, the European Commission announced that it will provide EUR 127 million to Tunisia. This comes despite criticism surrounding its migrant deal with Kais Saied, Tunisia’s President. Critics, including Josep Borrell, EU diplomat, and the German government, have raised concerns about human rights and the lack of EU country involvement in the deal. Most of the funds originate from existing programs predating the pact. The EU aims to allocate EUR 60 million in budgetary support, EUR 42 million to refit rescue vessels and support the Tunisian coast guard. It will allocate EUR 105 million for border control to prevent the flow of migrants to Italy. (GREGORIO SORGI Gregorio Sorgi, “Tunisia finally sees some migration money from EU despite backlash,” Politico, 22 September 2023)


22 September 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #627

Germany signs High Seas Treaty for ocean protection

Photo : AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty


EM Daily Brief
By Rishika Yadav

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
EU urges Bosnia’s Serb entity to withdraw “Special Registry and Publicity” draft law
On 21 September, the EU called on authorities in the Serb-controlled part of Bosnia to withdraw a draft law. The law is called, “Special Registry and Publicity of the Work of Non-Profit Organization.” The law would classify non-profit organizations funded from abroad as “foreign agents.” Critics argue that the law resembles Russia's law adopted before the aggression against Ukraine. The EU expressed concern that this law, along with recent legislation recriminalizing libel, limits freedom of expression and threatens civil society organizations. The move is seen as aligning Bosnia's Serb entity with authoritarian regimes rather than European values. (“EU calls on Bosnian Serb parliament to reject draft law that brands NGOs as ‘foreign agents’,” Associated Press, 21 September 2023)

GERMANY
Signs High Seas Treaty for ocean protection
On 20 September, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Environment Minister Steffi Lemke signed the High Seas Treaty. It is aimed at designating large environmentally-protected areas in maritime zones outside individual countries’ control. The treaty, adopted by the UN in June, introduces regulations for protecting biodiversity in the world’s oceans. It addresses environmental consequences of activities like mineral extraction on the high seas. Germany was one of 67 countries to sign the treaty on the day it became available, including the US, China, Australia, and the EU. (“Germany signs UN treaty to protect ocean marine life,” Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Passes ban on face coverings
On 20 September, the National Council, lower house of parliament, voted in favour of a ban on face coverings, including burqas, with a 151-29 majority. The legislation was originally approved by the upper house and is now part of federal law. Violators can face fines of up to CHF 1,000. While few women in Switzerland wear full face coverings, this move aligns the country with others like Belgium and France that have implemented similar bans. The ban applies in public spaces and private buildings accessible to the public, with some exceptions. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) criticized Switzerland’s decision on the ban. The ban is seen by CAIR as driven by anti-Muslim prejudice. CAIR called on the US State Department to condemn the decision. (“Swiss parliament approves ban on full-face coverings like burqas, and sets fine for violators,” Associated Press, 21 September 2023; “CAIR Condemns Swiss Ban on Face Veil,” CAIR, 21 September 2023)

REGIONAL
Central banks across amends interest rates
On 21 September, according to Euronews, several European central banks announced or are expected to announce changes to their interest rates. Sweden's central bank, Riksbank, raised its key interest rate by a quarter-point to four percent. While signs of falling inflation were noted, the bank stated that inflation pressures remain too high. Norway’s central bank increased its policy rate by 0.25 per cent to 4.25 per cent due to rising costs and inflation. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 1.75 per cent, and the Bank of England is set to decide on potential rate changes. Additionally, Turkey's central bank has increased its policy rate by five per cent to 30 per cent in an effort to control rampant inflation. The central bank emphasized its commitment to further monetary tightening as needed to bring down inflation. The decision follows similar moves by central banks across Europe to address rising inflationary pressures. Central banks worldwide are grappling with inflationary pressures caused by post-pandemic recovery and global events. (“Sweden's central bank ramps up key interest rate over high inflation,” Euronews, 21 September 2023; James Thomas, “Norway central bank pushes up interest rate, hinting at another hike in December,” Euronews, 21 September 2023; James Thomas, “Turkey pushes interest rates up to highest level since 2003,” Euronews, 21 September 2023; Daniel Harper, “Bank of England pauses interest hikes, as several European countries climb,” Euronews, 21 September 2023)

Schengen reform aims to limit border controls
On 21 September, members of the European Parliament backed proposals to reform the Schengen Borders Code. The code governs border crossings within the Schengen Area while preserving free movement and addressing external threats. The proposals are aimed to ensure that border controls within the Schengen area are reintroduced only when genuinely necessary. The reform clarifies rules, strengthens free movement, and introduces targeted solutions to real threats. In cases of large-scale cross-border health emergencies, temporary restrictions may apply. However, EU citizens, long-term residents, and asylum-seekers would be exempted. Enhanced police cooperation is proposed as an alternative to border controls. Clear criteria for imposing border controls and stricter time limits are outlined. The Court of Justice of the EU ruled in April 2023 that re-installed border controls due to serious threats should not exceed six months, with extensions only for new threats or exceptional circumstances risking the Schengen area. (“Free movement: Schengen reform to ensure border controls only as a last resort,” European Parliament, 21 September 2023)


21 September 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #626

PM Rishi Sunak to go slow on net zero commitments

Photo : Alberto Pezzali/AP


 

EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

DENMARK
Novo Nordisk partners with Aspen to produce insulin in Africa
On 20 September, according to Euronews, Novo Nordisk, Denmark’s pharmaceutical company, joined forces with South Africa’s Aspen Pharmacare. This aims to manufacture human insulin for diabetes patients in Africa. This partnership aims to address the urgent need for insulin treatment on the continent, where diabetes is on the rise. Production is set to begin in early 2024, with a projection to supply insulin for 4.1 million diabetes patients annually in Africa by 2026. The WHO estimated that by 2045, the number of adults living with diabetes in Africa would rise to 55 million, underscoring the critical importance of this initiative. (“Denmark's Novo Nordisk and South Africa's Aspen to produce insulin for African patients,” Euronews, 20 September 2023)

FRANCE
Global leaders emphasize on urgent climate action
On 19 September, leaders of the High Ambition Coalition called for immediate climate action, stressing the urgency of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. They highlighted the need to cut global emissions in half this decade and phase out fossil fuels. The leaders emphasized financial reforms to support climate action and resilience-building, advocating for a just transition. They call for solidarity, inclusion of marginalized voices, and a turning point at the Global Stocktake to close ambition and implementation gaps. (“High Ambition Coalition Leaders’ Statement – UN General Assembly 2023,” Elysee, 20 September 2023)

GERMANY
President calls for fairer EU migrant distribution
On 20 September, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier expressed concern over the strain of migrants, asserting that Germany and Italy are reaching their limits. He advocated for a permanent European solidarity mechanism in addition to the current voluntary system to alleviate the burden. Steinmeier cited that Germany had received over 1,000 refugees from Italy and highlighted the recent surge in asylum applications, with over 162,000 in the first half of the year. (Laura Hulsemann, “German president says country at ‘breaking point’ over migration,” Politico, 20 September 2023)

NORWAY
Ocean-based climate solutions as key to limiting global warming
On 20 September, an updated report from the High-level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy was presented at UNGA. It reported that ocean-based climate solutions can contribute to a 35 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050. These solutions, already available for implementation, could equate to four times the annual emissions of EU countries. Jonas Gahr Store, Norway’s Prime Minister, co-chaired the meeting of the Ocean Panel during the UN General Assembly High-level Week. He emphasized the importance of ocean-based solutions in achieving climate goals. Store also welcomed Seychelles as a new panel member and signed the international marine biodiversity agreement. (“Many climate solutions to be found in the oceans,” Government.no, 20 September 2023)

SWITZERLAND
President Alain Berset addresses the UN on Ukraine and global challenges
On 20 September, President Alain Berset attended a UNSC meeting on Ukraine.  He urged Russia to respect the UN Charter and withdraw from Ukraine’s territory. In his UNGA speech, Berset emphasized global challenges, including inequality and the climate crisis. He focused on advocating for strong institutions and a renewal of the cooperative world order. Switzerland welcomed the New Agenda for Peace presented by Guterres and pledged continued commitment to peacebuilding. Berset also held bilateral meetings discussing various issues and global challenges with heads of state and government, including Moldova, Brazil, and South Korea. (“President Berset speaks at UN Security Council debate on Ukraine,” The Federal Council, 20 September 2023)

THE UK
PM Rishi Sunak to go slow in adhering to country's net zero commitments
On 20 September according to the BBC, Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, was reportedly considering a significant policy shift. It may involve postponing the ban on new petrol and diesel car sales and scaling back the phase-out of gas boilers. It is aiming for an 80 per cent reduction by 2035. While Sunak maintains the commitment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, he suggests a “more proportionate way” forward. He emphasized the need to be realistic about costs. Critics argue this could harm the UK’s environmental credibility and economic growth, while supporters see it as a pragmatic approach. The Chancellor is expected to outline these changes in an upcoming speech, marking a potential divide with the Labour Party’s stance on climate policy. (Henry Zeffman & Chris Mason & Brian Wheeler, “Rishi Sunak considers weakening key green policies,” BBC, 20 September 2023)


20 September 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #625

War in Ukraine: Day 573 | At the UN, Zelenskyy warns against secret negotiations with Russia

EURO two million in aid to Morocco and Libya for natural disasters; France and Germany presents joint proposal for EU enlargement; Spain's Parliament allows the use of minority languages amidst protests

Photo : President of Ukraine


War in Ukraine: Day 573
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 19 September, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, warned against secret deals with Russia. Zelenskyy, addressing the UNGA, emphasized that “evil cannot be trusted.” He cited the unfulfilled promises of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, and urged transparent unity in decision-making. He also highlighted Ukraine’s commitment to preventing future global aggression post-Russia’s actions. He accused Russia of weaponizing food shortages, attempting to exchange them for recognition of captured territories. 

On 19 September, Russia’s strikes in Ukraine left six dead. The strikes targeted Kupiansk in northeastern Ukraine, raising the day’s toll to nine. Ukraine’s forces have been pushing back Russia’s advances in the Kharkiv region. The Ukraine’s army reported shooting down 27 out of 30 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia during the night. 

On 18 September, The New York Times reported on a likely strike in Ukraine from an errant missile. On 06 September, the missile strike in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, killing 15 civilians, was initially attributed to Russia’s forces. However, the evidence collected by The New York Times suggested it was an errant Ukraine’s air defence missile. This missile was fired from a Buk launch system. Evidence includes missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts, and social media posts. Such missiles can go off course due to electronic malfunctions or damage to guidance fins during launch. 

On 19 September, Oleksandr Kurakov, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister, confirmed the departure of a cargo ship loaded with grain from a Black Sea port. It comes despite Russia’s warnings of treating civilian vessels as military targets. Ukraine established a naval corridor to facilitate the safe passage of cargo ships. Kurakov announced the departure of the vessel Resilient Africa, carrying 3,000 tons of wheat, from the port of Chornomorsk, heading towards the Bosphorus. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 September, Oleh Synehubov, Governor of Kharkiv region, informed that Russia’s attack on the northeastern Ukraine’s town of Kupiansk resulted in at least three fatalities. The attack involved a guided air bomb, marking another instance of ongoing conflict in the region.

On 19 September, according to TASS, Putin called for increased production of counterbattery and air defence systems. He said this at a meeting of the Russian Defence Industry Commission. He emphasized the need to supplement delivery schedules for these systems by 2024. Putin praised defence enterprises for maintaining steady operations in the first eight months of the year.

On 18 September, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation reported that Russia and China reaffirmed their alignment on several issues. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, and Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister addressed the alignment over the Ukraine conflict and the US. Both countries emphasized the importance of considering Russia’s interests and participation in resolving the Ukraine crisis. Wang also discussed his talks with Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser. 

On 19 September, Russia’s troops struck an industrial facility in Lviv. It resulted in the destruction of a humanitarian aid storage point. Edvard Kava, assistant bishop of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Lviv, revealed that over 15 trucks of humanitarian aid were burned. It also included clothes, food, and generators from the Vatican.

On 19 September, Putin chaired a Military-Industrial Commission meeting in Izhevsk. The meeting covered the supply schedule for weapons and equipment, discussed the draft State Armament Program for 2025–2034, and considered candidates for key positions related to weapon development and technology. He ordered to increase the military production by ten fold. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 19 September, Lloyd Austin, US Defence Secretary, called on allies to enhance Ukraine’s air defence capabilities. He said this during a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. Austin emphasized the importance of air defence in saving lives and encouraged allies to contribute air defence munitions as Ukraine prepares for another winter of conflict.

On 19 September, Joe Biden, US President, at UNGA, emphasized the need for unity in defending Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. He warned against allowing Ukraine to be carved up and called on allies to support its air defence capabilities. Biden requested USD 24 billion in aid for Ukraine, facing opposition from isolationist elements within his own party. 

On 19 September, Lloyd Austin, US Defence Secretary, announced that the US will soon deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. It comes as a part of over USD 43 billion in security assistance pledged since Russia’s invasion. The tanks will be equipped with 120 millimetre depleted uranium rounds, a controversial choice due to potential health concerns. 

On 19 September, Czech Republic, Denmark, and the Netherlands signed a letter of intent to provide financial support for the supply of Czech weapons to Ukraine. The initiative aims to cover various military supplies, including tanks, howitzers, small arms, air defence capabilities, and electronic warfare equipment. The first project will involve donating modernized T-72EA tanks to Ukraine. Denmark will also contribute by donating 30 Leopard, one tank and 15 T-72 tanks. 

The Global Fallouts
On 19 September, G7 foreign ministers urged China to use its influence to compel Russia to cease its aggression in Ukraine. The joint statement, released by Japan, called for the immediate withdrawal of Russia’s troops without conditions. Concerns arose after a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, raising fears of closer military ties between Russia and North Korea.

References
Tetiana Lozovenko, “Zelenskyy on agreements with Russia: Ask Prigozhin whether Putin can be trusted,” Ukrainska Pravda, 19 September 2023
Russian Strikes In Ukraine Kill Nine,” Barron’s, 19 September 2023
John Ismay, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Haley Willis, Malachy Browne, Christoph Koettl and Alexander Cardia, “Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy,” The New York Times, 18 September 2023
Ukraine Grain Ship Leaves Black Sea Port Despite Russian Threat,” Barron’s, 19 September 2023
Russia’s weaponization of food and energy impacts all countries, Zelenskyy tells UN Assembly,” UN News, 19 September 2023
Anna Pruchnicka, “Three killed in Russian attack on Ukrainian town of Kupiansk - governor,” Zawya, 19 September 2023
Putin orders ramping up production of counterbattery, air defense systems,” TASS, 19 September 2023
Russia Hails 'Similarity' of China's Position on U.S., Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 19 September 2023
Meeting of the Military-Industrial Commission,” President of Russia, 19 September 2023
Drone attack on Lviv: 300 tonnes of humanitarian aid destroyed, including from Vatican,” Ukrainska Pravda, 19 September 2023
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark A. Milley Hold Press Conference Following Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Ramstein Air Base, Germany,” U.S. Department of Defense, 19 September 2023
Biden urges world leaders at UN to remain united against Russian aggression,” Le Monde, 19 September 2023
Ukraine will receive M1 Abrams tanks for counteroffensive, says US,” Euronews, 19 September 2023
Letter of Intent: Joint donation of Czech weaponry to Ukraine initiative,” Forsvarsministeriet, 19 September 2023
G7 ministers call on China to press Russia to stop aggression in Ukraine,” Reuters, 19 September 2023


EM In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

AUSTRIA
EURO two million in aid to Morocco and Libya for natural disasters
On 19 September, Karl Nehammer, Austria’s Chancellor, announced that the country would provide EUR two million from the foreign disaster fund to assist Morocco and Libya in the wake of recent natural disasters. Austria’s aid will be directed toward emergency relief efforts by the Red Cross and Red Crescent Society. It will provide essential assistance such as medical care, clean water, food, and shelter to those affected by these disasters. (“Chancellor Nehammer: Austria is helping Morocco and Libya with 2 million euros from the foreign disaster fund,” Bundeskanzleramt, 19 September 2023)

NORWAY
Donates Cargo carriers to Ukraine for supply transport
On 19 September, the Government of Norway announced that Norway would provide around 50 tracked cargo carriers to Ukraine. It is to aid in the transportation of supplies to areas lacking roads. Bjorn Arild Gram, Norway’s Defence Minister, highlighted the carriers’ ability to manoeuvre in terrain inaccessible to wheeled vehicles. It makes them vital for transporting goods, including ammunition, food, and water to Ukraine’s troops. The vehicles, known as NM199 in Norway and M548 internationally, have been in storage within the Norwegian Armed Forces and will be maintained before donation. (“Norway donates cargo carriers to Ukraine,” Government.no, 19 September 2023)

SPAIN
Parliament allows the use of minority languages amidst protests
On 19 September, Spain’s national parliament permitted the use of three minority languages – Catalan, Basque, and Galician – after the concession by Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s Prime Minister, to Catalan separatists. The move led to objections from the far-right party, Vox, which then abandoned the chamber in protest. The conservative Popular Party demanded formal approval for the use of minority languages. This development is part of Sanchez’s efforts to gain support from Catalan separatist parties for his investiture vote. Spain has also called for these languages to be recognized as official EU languages, but this has faced resistance from some member states. (“Spain's parliament allows use of Basque, Catalan, Galician,” Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Bilateral agreement with Slovakia for second contribution
On 19 September, Switzerland and Slovakia inked a bilateral agreement for the implementation of Switzerland’s second contribution to selected EU member states. Switzerland will provide CHF 44.2 million to support programs in Slovakia, focusing on vocational training, sustainable tourism, and healthcare. This agreement marks the final step in establishing 13 bilateral implementation agreements for Switzerland. It is aimed at strengthening cohesion within the EU. The cooperation program with Slovakia addresses the country’s current needs, promoting Swiss-Slovak partnerships where Switzerland can offer valuable experience. This contribution seeks to enhance sustainable tourism, vocational education, and healthcare in Slovakia. (“Greater cooperation with Slovakia,” The Federal Council, 19 September 2023)

THE UK
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer meets Macron in Paris
On 19 September, Keir Starmer, UK’s Labour Party leader, met with Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, in Paris. Although it is not unusual for Macron to meet with opposition leaders, the talks did not provide Starmer with any endorsement from the French president. Starmer has been making appearances on the world stage and recently expressed his desire for closer ties with the EU while ruling out rejoining the bloc if he becomes the UK’s prime minister. Starmer’s visit to Paris highlights the warming UK-France relationship after disputes over the Brexit deal. (“French President Macron to host UK opposition leader Starmer,” Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2023)

UKRAINE
New IT coalition launched to support Ukraine’s defence forces
On 19 September, Luxembourg and Estonia led a kick-off meeting of the IT Coalition within the “Ramstein framework” during the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) meeting. This coalition is supported by seven countries including Belgium, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, and Estonia. It aims to provide a secure and resilient IT infrastructure for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence and Defence Forces. Luxembourg has pledged EUR 10 million for 2023 to launch this initiative. The coalition focuses on IT, communications, and cybersecurity support to enhance Ukraine's military efficiency and effectiveness. The coalition was initially announced during the June UDCG meeting. (“Luxembourg, Estonia and Ukraine have launched the IT Coalition,” The Luxembourg Government, 19 September 2023)

REGIONAL
France and Germany presents joint proposal for EU enlargement
On 19 September, France and Germany submitted a joint report outlining EU reforms. It comes with the need to accommodate new member states like Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans. The report suggests tighter rules on the rule of law, changes to voting procedures in the European Council, and an expanded EU budget. It also proposes a multi-tiered bloc that includes an inner circle of select EU countries, the EU itself, "associate members" of the single market, and an outer tier. This proposal aims to facilitate an enlarged EU while avoiding treaty changes, with some countries opting for deeper integration while others maintain a looser association. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “Germany, France present EU reform proposal as bloc prepares for new members,” Euronews, 19 September 2023)

EU urges Serbia and Kosovo to fulfil commitments amid dialogue stalemate
On 19 September, the EU expressed concern about both parties’ failure to implement their commitments under the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation. This took place following the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue on 14 September. The EU called on Serbia and Kosovo to engage constructively, starting implementation without delay, including the establishment of the Association/Community of Serb Majority Municipalities. The EU expressed concern over tensions in northern Kosovo and criticized actions by both parties that risk further escalation. The EU reaffirmed its readiness to lift or impose measures based on progress and emphasized the importance of holding early local elections in northern Kosovo. (“Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on expectations from Serbia and Kosovo*,” European Council, 19 September 2023)


18 September 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #623

Ursula announces action plan to combat migration overcrowding in Lampedusa

Photo : Ursula von der Leyen / X/ europeanconservative


REGIONAL
Ursula announces action plan to combat migration overcrowding in Lampedusa
On 17 September, Georgia Meloni, Italy’s Prime Minister and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission’s President visited Italy’s island of Lampedusa. The island located between Italy, and Malta, 7000 migrants entered in last one week from Tunisia. A migrant reception in the Island with only 400 migrants, due to the sudden influx, declared “state of emergency,” as challenges arose in supply of food and water. On arriving at the Island, Meloni affirmed to address the situation at “pan-European level.” Von der Leyen announced the 10-point action plan and said: “Migration is a European challenge and will receive a European solution.” Under the plan, EU’s asylum agencies the European Union Asylum Agency (EUAA) and the European Border and Coast Guard (Frontex) will be deployed to handle the crowd and find ways to manage migration and returns. Till now EU and Tunisia has a deal in place to stop the migration from North Africa and as part of the deal EUR 100 million is yet to paid. (Priyanka Shankar, “Migrants on Lampedusa: Italy, EU announce action plan,” Deutsche Welle, 17 September 2023)
 
Erdogan warns of withdrawing membership bid from the EU
On 16 September, Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey’s President said that Turkey can end its membership bid to join the EU. He said: “The European Union is trying to break away from Turkey..we will make our own evaluation of these developments, and if necessary we could part ways with the European Union.” The statement comes after the European Parliament released a report earlier on its inability to continue Turkey’s accession process due to current situation. Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned the move and criticized the EU for taking “a shallow and non-visionary,” viewpoint. The EU-Turkey accession talks which began in 2005 was frozen due to EUs concerns over rule of law and state of human rights in Turkey. Since Erdogan’s win in May elections, the stress on accession has increased. (“Erdogan: Turkey can part ways with European Union,” Deutsche Welle, 16 September 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Wang Yi to head to Russia for bilateral talks
On 18 September, Deutsche Welle reported on the upcoming four day-visit of China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Russia. According to the report, the meeting comes as a preparatory for Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing in October for third Belt and Road Forum. The visit in aimed at promoting bilateral relations, hold in-depth talks over strategic interest of China and Russia. (“China top diplomat heads to Russia for 4-day talks,” Deutsche Welle, 18 September 2023)
 
Iran criticized by the EU for removal of accreditation
On 17 September, the EU criticized Iran for its decision to pull out from many UN “nuclear inspectors.” According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), some of its member do not have access to inspect Iran’s nuclear arsenal. The EU which has been the coordinator for 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the international, removal of the accreditation by Iran triggered concerns. EUs spokesperson said: “Particularly worrying is the direct and severe impact of this decision on the agency's ability to conduct its verification activities..” Rafael Grossi, IAEA’s Director General criticized Iran for removal of one-third of the core group of IAEA inspectors. (“EU calls on Iran for immediate return of nuclear inspectors,” Deutsche Welle, 17 September 2023)


14 September 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #620

EU's Digital Services Act: Three Implications | War in Ukraine: Days 567

Photo : aurora-universities.eu


IN FOCUS
EU Digital Services Act: Three and implications
By Sreeja JS

On 25 August, the EU's ambitious Digital Services Act (DSA) came into effect with a new set of regulations for online platforms and search engines with a large user base in the EU. DSA aims to ensure big tech companies such as Google and Facebook, take measures to create a safer and transparent digital space, moderate illegal content, and prevent the promotion and proliferation of hate speech and disinformation.
 
What is the Act about?
According to the European Commission, the goal of DSA is to create a safer digital space with new rules on privacy, security, and data sharing. The Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act are part of the Digital Services Package adopted by the Council of Europe and European Parliament in 2022. Some of the provisions of the Digital Services Act came into force on 16 November 2022.
 
On 25 April 2023, the European Commission adopted its first set of decisions on designations. Accordingly, the Commission designated 17 social media and online shopping platforms as Very Large Online Platforms (otherwise called VLOPs) and two search engines namely Google and Bing as Very Large Search Engines (otherwise called VLOSEs) who have at least 45 million users in the EU. These platforms and search engines would now have to comply with a full set of obligations that came into force on 25 August. EU would require the VLOPs and VLOSEs to update their user numbers at least once every six months so that if a platform has less than 45 million users in a year they would be removed from the list. Failure to comply with the new rules would result in billions of euros (up to six per cent of their global turnover) in penalty and even an EU-wide ban. The law aims to give users of these platforms, including minors, more rights and influence over their accounts to ensure better privacy and security.
 
According to the European Commission, DSA would become applicable to all entities within scope by 17 February 2024 and the member states are required to empower their Digital Services Coordinators by that time.
 
The new set of obligations that came into force focuses on:

1. Measures to tackle disinformation: The large online platforms enumerated as VLOPs and VLOSEs would have to identify, analyze and mitigate an array of systemic risks. The systemic risks pertain to the dissemination of illegal content and the negative effects on fundamental rights, electoral processes, and gender-based violence or mental health. They are obliged to carry out their first annual risk assessment and share the data with the European Commission. 
2. Strong protection of minors and ban on targeted advertising: DSA also introduced two restrictions regarding data protection on targeted advertising. Firstly, it aims to ban targeted advertising of minors based on profiling. Secondly, the ban on targeted advertising using special categories of personal data such as race, gender, sexual orientation and religion. 
3.Enhancement of transparency and accountability: The act includes provisions for delegated regulation on data access. Thus, the large platforms would have to give vetted researchers access to its data that is publicly available. According to the European Commission, it would further specify the conditions for the sharing of data and the purposes for which the data may be used.

What are the implications of the Act?  
Firstly, regulations for the online platforms. Many of the big tech companies such as Google, Meta, TikTok and Snapchat enlisted in the VLOSEs and VLOPs have already outlined how they would comply with the DSA. For instance, Google reiterated that it already complies with some of the rules and regulations of DSA, including the ability to provide YouTube creators to appeal against video removals and restrictions. Further, Amazon announced that it is expanding its Ad Transparency Center to meet the requirements of the Act. Meanwhile, Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram said that it is working to expand its Ad Library. It added that soon it would start displaying and archiving all the ads targeting the EU users while including the parameters used and the users targeted by the ads. When a majority of the companies have agreed to comply with DSA, Amazon and Zalando have challenged their inclusion in the list. In July 2023, Reuters, reported on Amazon legal challenge with the Luxembourg-based General Court, asking the court to annul its designation in VLOPs as its big rivals in the EU were excluded from the list. However, Amazon implemented numerous features such as a channel for users to report incorrect product information to show its compliance with the DSA. Previously, German retailer Zalando flagged a similar legal challenge against the European Commission arguing that its user base is below the 45 million threshold (June 2023).
 
Secondly, uniform regulations across the EU member states. According to the European Commission, DSA would provide one set of rules for all the EU member states. All the citizens of the EU, irrespective of their countries, would have a common enforcement system to safeguard the digital space. Further, DSA would apply directly and supersede overlapping national laws of the same objective. Besides, EU member states cannot go beyond the Regulation in their national laws as DSA is a harmonization instrument. The supervision of the regulations would be shared between the European Commission and the member states. The Commission would be primarily responsible for the VLOPs and VLOSEs, while the member states would be responsible for smaller platforms or search engines in line with the state’s preference.
 
Thirdly, enhanced empowerment and protection for users. The important agenda of DSA is to create a safe and sound digital space and empower the users in the EU member states to freely express their ideas and opinions. It also aims to create a safe space to engage in online shopping by reducing the risks of illegal activities, and dangerous products and to ensure the protection of fundamental rights. According to Deutsche Welle, the law coming into effect would mean providing of reasons of moderation, deletion and ban of the content to the users. This is to ensure transparency. By February 2024, consumers and consumer rights groups would also have the opportunity to use various mechanisms to appeal if their content had been moderated.
 
References
Digital Services Act takes effect for large online platforms,” data.europa.eu, 25 August 2023
Digital Services Act: Commission designates first set of Very Large Online Platforms and Search Engines,” ec.europa.eu, 25 April 2023
Questions and Answers: Digital Services Act*,” ec.europa.eu, 25 April 2023
Martin Coulter, “
Big Tech braces for EU Digital Services Act regulations,” Reuters, 24 August 2023
"
The Digital Services Act: ensuring a safe and accountable online environment," commission.europa.eu
Lisa O'Carroll, “How the EU Digital Services Act affects Facebook, Google and others,” The Guardian, 25 August 2023
Priyanka Shankar, “
What impact will the EU's Digital Services Act have?” Deutsche Welle, 25 August 2023
Foo Yun Chee, “
Amazon makes first Big Tech challenge to EU online content rules,” Reuters, 11 July 2023
"
Digital Services Act: EU's landmark rules for online platforms enter into force," ec.europa. eu, 16 November 2022


War in Ukraine: Days 567
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 13 September, Volodymyr Kudrytskiy, Ukraine’s Ukrenergo spokesperson reported on the near completion of energy grid systems repairs. He assured the installation of equipment that will help Ukraine to sustain its power grid in winter. This comes after continued damaged caused by Russia’s missile strikes. He said: “We know what it looks like [to be attacked] and it will be very difficult for the enemy to surprise us after the 1,200 missiles they fired at the power system last winter.”


The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 13 September, Russia’s defence ministry reported on a cruise missile attack in Sevastopol. In the attack that took place in a shipyard, two ships were reported to be damaged and was observed to have attempted to attack unmanned boats in the Black Sea fleet. Mikhail Razvozhayev confirmed the same where 24 were reported injured.

On 13 September, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President confirmed his acceptance to visit North Korea. This comes after Putin and Kim Jong-Un, North Korea’s leader held talks at the Eastern Economic Forum. On commitment between both, North Korea’s news agency, KCNA said: “Common front to frustrate the imperialists' military threat and provocation.” On the sanction, Putin stressed on Russia following and stressed on “self-sufficient” aspect. According to Deutsche Welle, Kim was reported to have promised to aid Russia in protecting its security interest and relations with Russia would be “first priority.” 

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 13 September, on Kim and Putin’s meet, Antony Blinken, US Secretary of the State expressed that it showcased “Russia’s desperation.” He said: “We're looking to make sure that we, as necessary, can impose costs and consequences.” On the same the White House stated that it continues to ask North Korea to not support Russia.

On 13 September, Klaus Iohannis, Romania’s President reported on findings of fragments of drone inside the territory. The same was confirmed by Romania’s defence ministry stating it to be spread “several tens of meters.” In response to this the foreign ministry raised objection against Russia for violating its airspace.

On 13 September, Estonia’s ministry of the interior announced its decision to join Latvia and Lithuania in banning entry of vehicles with Russia’s licence plates. The move comes after European Commission updated its guidelines. Further the minister necessitated on implementing measures after discussing with other Baltic States. 

On 13 September, Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President during the annual address in France assured long-term support to Ukraine. She said: “Our support to Ukraine will endure.”

References
Vladimir Putin accepts Kim's invitation to visit North Korea,” Deutsche Welle, 13 September 2023
Ukraine power systems ready for winter: official,” Taipei Times, 14 September 2023
China, Ukraine, green energy: EU chief sets out priorities in state of union speech,” rfi.fr13 September 2023
Yaroslav Trofimov, “
Russian Navy Shipyard Targeted by Missile Strikes in Sevastopol; Two Vessels Hit,” Wall Street Journal, 13 September 2023
Day one of Russian vehicles entry ban into Estonia passes off peacefully,” ERR News, 14 September 2023
NATO member Romania finds fragments of drones near its border with Ukraine for the third time,” Associated Press, 13 September 2023
Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes of Pod Save the World,” state.gov, 14 September 2023


01 September 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #610

EM In Brief: Commercial whaling in Iceland sparks criticism | War in Ukraine: Day 554

UK's Defence Secretary resigns; UBS to cut jobs despite profit; Calls for Aiwanger's resignation in Germany

Photo : Benny F. Nielsen/ AP


War in Ukraine: Day 554
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 31 August, according to Ukrinform, Ukraine successfully deployed its own long-range weapon, hitting a target 700 kilometres away. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, shared the news on Telegram, emphasizing progress in battlefield operations. The Ministry of Defence announced the arrival of weapons and armoured medical evacuation vehicles. The President discussed winter preparations, energy systems, and security measures.
 
On 31 August, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defence, reported that Ukraine's defence forces are actively conducting an offensive operation in the south, particularly in the Novodanylivka–Novoprokopivka area. Troops are making progress, with a focus on consolidating gained territory. Ukraine's forces are also achieving success in the Bakhmut and Melitopol directions, as stated by Andriy Kovaliov, the spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
 
 On 31 August, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's Foreign Affairs Minister and José Manuel Albares, Spanish counterpart, discussed Ukraine's EU accession talks and increased military aid from Spain. Kuleba highlighted Spain's EU Presidency and the priority of launching Ukraine's accession talks in 2023. He also mentioned expanding Spain's valuable military assistance to Ukraine. Kuleba's working visit includes meetings in the Czech Republic, France, and Spain, culminating in an informal EU foreign affairs ministers' meeting in Toledo.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 31 August, voting in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions began, while the Kherson and Luhansk regions will start on 02 September. Authorities in separatist and Russia's occupied regions of Ukraine initiated early voting in local elections scheduled for 10 September. The elections lack genuine opposition as dissent is brutally suppressed. Due to safety concerns, residents in frontline areas can vote at "mobile" polling stations under Russia's military surveillance. 

On 31 August, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the thwarting of Ukraine's sabotage group's attempt to infiltrate the Bryansk region, near the Ukraine-Belarus border. Two Ukraine fighters were reportedly killed, and five others were detained. The group included personnel from Ukraine's SBU security service, GUR military intelligence, and Spetsnaz special forces, with intentions to carry out high-profile attacks on military and energy infrastructure. The FSB conducted the operation jointly with Russia's National Guard and law enforcement. A weapons cache seized from the group included rifles, grenades, and ammunition of NATO standard.
 
On 31 August, according to Russia's Defence Ministry, Russia's air defences intercepted a drone heading towards Moscow, with the drone later identified as Ukraine's. Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow's Mayor, reported the incident, saying there were no casualties or damage. The interception led to flight delays and restrictions at Moscow airports.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 31 August, according to Deutsche Welle, German officials anticipate the government will prolong its trusteeship over an eastern German oil refinery, which is mostly owned by Rosneft subsidiaries. The trusteeship was enacted after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and was set to expire in September. The PCK (ultra clean Pipeline Compatible Kerosene) refinery in Schwedt plays a significant role in supplying fuel to northeastern Germany. Jörg Steinbach, State Economy Minister, expects the trusteeship to be extended for another six months, stating it is the right course of action.
 
On 31 August, Igor Girkin, a jailed former separatist commander, declared his candidacy for Russia's presidency in the upcoming 2024 election. Girkin, who is detained on extremism charges, is known for his support of Russia's actions in Ukraine but has criticized Putin's leadership. He claimed to be more competent in military matters than Putin and criticized Russia's leader for being influenced by Western partners and security agencies. Girkin was sentenced to life in prison by a Dutch court for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014.
 
On 31 August, BAE Systems announced its increased support to Ukraine's armed forces, signing agreements with the Ukraine's government. These agreements involve collaborating with Ukraine's Armed Forces to understand their future needs and revitalizing Ukraine's industrial base. Additionally, BAE Systems will explore the potential production of 105 millimeters Light Guns in Ukraine. This move follows Ukraine and Sweden's intent to cooperate in producing and servicing the CV90 platform, currently manufactured by BAE Systems' Hägglunds business in Sweden. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's Minister for Strategic Industry, said: "I am grateful to BAE Systems for the bold decision to stand side by side with us in the fight against Russian aggression and building the future of the Ukrainian defence industry. Together with the company, we will be able to localize the production of advanced weapons."
 
On 31 August, Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus's President, criticized Poland and the Baltic states for demanding the withdrawal of Wagner Group from Belarus, calling their demands "unreasonable and stupid." He pointed out their military buildups near Belarus and reminded Poland of its suspension of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty obligations with Belarus. Lukashenko warned that Belarus would respond to any threats, especially those originating from self-exiled opposition members in neighboring countries.
 
On 31 August, according to The Wall Street Journal, the US imposed sanctions on Russia's company, Intellekt, for alleged support of North Korea's development of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles. This move was coordinated with South Korea and Japan, aiming to counter North Korea's recent failed satellite launch. The sanctions target three entities, including Sergey Mikhaylovich Kozlov, Russia's national, and Jon Jin Yong, North Korea's national, associated with Intellekt. 

References
"Zelensky reports successful use of long-range weapons: Target hit at 700 km distance," Ukrinform, 31 August 2023
"Defense forces gaining foothold on Novodanylivka–Novoprokopivka section – Maliar," Ukrinform, 31 August 2023
"Kuleba, Albares discuss Ukraine's EU accession talks, military aid from Spain," Ukrinform, 31 August 2023
"Local Polls Open in Russian-Occupied Areas of Ukraine," The Moscow Times, 31 August 2023
"Russia Says Killed, Detained Ukrainian Saboteurs in Border Region," The Moscow Times, 31 August 2023
"Russia Downs Drone Heading for Moscow," The Moscow Times, 31 August 2023
"German minister expects control of Russian-owned refinery to be extended," Deutsche Welle, 31 August 2023
"Jailed Russian nationalist declares presidential bid," Le Monde, 31 August 2023
"BAE Systems establishes local presence and signs agreements to support Ukraine," Bae Systems, 31 August 2023
"Lukashenko: Demands on withdrawal of PMC Wagner from Belarus are groundless, stupid," Belarus.by, 31 August 2023
Richard Vanderford, "US Sanctions Russian Company Over Alleged Support for North Korean Weapons Programs," The Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2023


In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

FINLAND
Anti-racist agenda amidst scandals
On 31 August, Finland's government, after consultation with 100 representatives of civil society, introduced a set of constitutional measures to promote equality and to combat hate speeches and discrimination. This government decision is being debated in reaction to a succession of racial scandals and ties to Nazism. The controversies sparked considerable problems within the four-party coalition administration, resulting in fights between the liberal Swedish People's Party (SFP) and the far-right populist Finns Party. The new policy also makes Holocaust denial, as well as the usage of Nazi and communist symbols and beliefs, illegal. Petteri Orpo, Finland's Prime Minister, said: "There is no room for racism in Finland," Round table conversations and national efforts to promote equality in educational settings are on the agenda. These measures will be carried out in accordance with a distinct action plan. (Claudia Chiappa, "Scandal-ridden Finnish government presents anti-racism agenda," Politico, 31 August 2023; David Mac Dougall, "Finnish government renounces racism after a summer rocked by racist scandals,Euronews, 31 August 2023)

Four Neo-Nazist men accused of producing 3D printed weapons
On 31 August, four Finland's men were charged with preparing assaults on refugees and political opponents. They are also suspected of producing 3D printed weapons and firearms. These weapons are claimed to be manufactured in anticipation of a confrontation in Finland. These suspects are alleged to have neo Nazi views and to believe in the concept of accelerationism. ("4 Finnish men charged with plotting racially motivated attacks using 3D printed weapons," Associated Press, 31 August 2023)

GERMANY
Calls for Aiwanger's resignation
On 31 August, the members of the Social Democratic Party asked Hubert Aiwanger, Bavarian Deputy Minister President, to resign following the political storm that it has created ahead of the upcoming elections on 08 October. The accusations levelled against Aiwanger have been seen as highly troubling by critics. The public has also launched a political campaign against him, pressing the government to take action against Aiwanger. Markus Soder, a member of the center-right Christian Social Union will be re-elected as Aiwanger's replacement. (Peter Wilke and Hans Von Der Burchard, "Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party calls for Hubert Aiwanger's resignation following Nazi scandal," Politico, 31 August 2023)

ICELAND
Commercial whaling sparks criticism from welfare groups
On 31 August, Iceland resumed commercial fin whale hunting with stronger hunting method standards and oversight. Animal welfare advocacy groups and climate advocates have also denounced this decision. They claim that the government passed up an opportunity to do the right thing. Commercial whaling, according to detractors, is also terrible for Iceland and the environment. One of the main points they make is that the people of Iceland do not consume whale flesh and hence do not support this practice. (Sylvia Hui, "Iceland says commercial whaling can resume after temporary ban," Associated Press, 31 August 2023)

NORWAY
Questioning of Minister of Foreign Affairs over shareholding transparency 
On 31 August, Anniken Huitfeldt, Foreign Minister was informed of fresh information on shares in Norwegian listed firms purchased and sold by her spouse since her appointment as Foreign Minister. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked the Ministry of Justice and Public Security's Legislation Department to conduct an assessment of the situation based on fresh facts and at the request of the Foreign Minister. In response, she said that she should have requested and explained the information concerning the shares her husband had with her spouse in order to be clear. Huitfeldt stated: "My priority right now is to assure complete transparency and to correct this mess. I really regret the error I committed. And I accept complete responsibility." Because she had no awareness of her husband's holdings, the Legislation Department certified the validity of her actions at both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government. ("Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs requested conflict-of-interest assessment," Government.no, 31 August 2023)

SWEDEN
Statistics report shows employment and labour market status
On 31 August, Statistics Sweden released a comparative report indicating employment in 2022 and 2023. According to the research, the number of individuals working aged 15 to 74 increased by 63 000 in the second quarter of 2023 when compared to the same period in 2022. The demographic composition of the population has a significant impact on the employment rate. Women were employed at a lower rate than men. Younger and older adults have lower employment rates and are represented in various labor market status categories. Employment increased by 0.7 per cent points for women and 0.3 per cent points for men compared to the second quarter of 2022. This amounts to a 0.4 per cent point decrease in unemployment among women and a 0.2 per cent point decrease in unemployment among men compared to the same period in 2022. Foreign-born people have a greater unemployment rate than Swedish-born people. Outside the labour force are the labour market status categories of student, pensioner, sick, and others. During the summer, fewer people are unemployed than during the rest of the year. This is primarily due to the fact that some kids who are students throughout the school year work during the summer and are categorized as employed. ("Employment continued to increase in the second quarter of 2023," Statistics Sweden, 31 August 2023)

SWITZERLAND
UBS to cut jobs despite profit
On 31 August, UBS, the Swiss banking giant, warned that job losses are possible despite the bank's highest profit. This decision will assist the bank in cutting expenditures. UBS has revealed plans to fully absorb Credit Suisse's profitable domestic bank operation rather than spin it off as a separate firm. According to Sergio Ermotti, Chief Executive, complete integration will be the best conclusion for UBS, its stakeholders, and the Swiss economy. The whole integration, including client migration, will be finished in 2025. Investors appear to be positive about the merged group's prospects, therefore this decision has lifted USB's share price by more than 5 percent. ("UBS to cut 3,000 jobs despite record $29bn profit," BBC, 31 August 2023)

THE UK
Ben Wallace: Defence Secretary resigns
On 31 August, Ben Wallace, British Defence Secretary, sent a letter to Rishi Sunak, UK's Prime Minister expressing his desire to step down from his post in order to pursue new opportunities. In his resignation letter, he commended the Defence Ministry's progress and asked the government to continue to support it. Wallace is a well-known figure in Ukraine due to his unwavering support for Kyiv's fight against the Russian invasion. However, a few comments he made during the NATO summit in Lithuania in July were misconstrued. Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine's Defence Minister, expressed gratitude for the UKs military assistance in repelling the first wave of Russia's invasion. In response to Wallace's resignation, the prime minister heaped him with praise and praised him for his significant contribution. The administration has chosen Grant Shapps, the former Energy Secretary, as Wallace's replacement. ("Ben Wallace: UK defense minister resigns,Deutsche Welle, 31 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Tunisia in deficit of funds to stop migrations
On 31 August, the chief negotiator of the controversial deal between Brussels and Tunis stated that Tunisia hasn't received EU funding yet to stop migrants coming to Europe. The contentious July agreement was a model for reducing migration from North Africa. Following an increase in migrant flow, the arrangement gave millions to Tunisia's authoritarian government in exchange for assistance in blocking boats carrying migrants. The agreement called for 105 million pounds to bolster Tunisia's border control activities, as well as an additional 150 million pounds to support the country's budget amid rising inflation. The EU had promised an additional 900 million pounds in cash provided Tunisia agreed to ratify an IMF bailout. Following the signing of the agreement, Tunisia observed a 69 per cent rise in migrant crossings, indicating that the agreement was not working. Gert Jan Koopman, Director General of the EU's Neighborhood Policy, stated that incoming monies should be used to enhance the EU's coast guards. (Gregorio Sorgi, "Tunisia yet to receive EU funds to stem migration, senior EU official says,Politico, 31 August 2023)

Sanctions against leaders of Niger coup
On 31 August, during talks in the Spanish city of Toledo, the foreign ministers of the EU along with the foreign minister of Niger's deposed civilian government agreed to take action against the military authorities who took power in Niger in late July. This meeting coincided with Niger's military rulers announcing the withdrawal of the French ambassador's diplomatic immunity in the country, ordering him to flee the country. Foreign ministers from the EU's 27 member states expressed their grave concern and alarm over the growing number of military coups on the African continent, with military commanders seizing control in Gabon. They have decided to begin drafting sanctions against coup leaders in Niger. However, the bloc's sanctions would include humanitarian exemptions. While the EU supported ECOWAS sanctions, it was more cautious in its support for any future military participation. Josep Borrell, EU's foreign policy head stated that the EU would carefully examine the ideas submitted by ECOWAS, while other ministers stated that they are still focused on a diplomatic solution. ("EU ministers back sanctions against Niger coup leaders,Deutsche Welle, 31 August 2023)


30 August 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #608

War in Ukraine: Day 552

London extends its Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to cover all of Greater London; Spain's Soccer federation praises restructuring plan; Germany's Federal Court of Audit criticizes government for utilizing special funds

Photo : Frank Augstein/Deutsche Welle


War in Ukraine: Day 552
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 29 August, due to a precarious security situation and Russia’s attacks, authorities ordered the mandatory evacuation of children and individuals with reduced mobility from five settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The decision was made in response to an appeal from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration during a Coordination Staff meeting for population evacuation under martial law. The affected areas include Huliaipole, Stepnohirsk, Preobrazhenka, Yehorivka, and Novopavlivka. A total of 54 children and 67 accompanying persons will be evacuated to ensure their safety.

On 29 August, local authorities in the Kupiansk district in Kharkiv Oblast ordered immediate evacuations. Roman Semenukha, the Deputy Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, noted that due to Russia’s ongoing attacks, 24 people were evacuated recently. 

On 28 August, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, stated that Ukraine is committed to significantly boosting its defence industry production, spanning firearms, drones, missiles, and armored vehicles. He expressed confidence in Ukraine’s resources to achieve this goal, emphasizing the country’s determination. This follows Zelenskyy’s earlier announcement of a substantial increase in drone production, and Oleksandr Kamyszin’s, Deputy Prime Minister, report of doubled defence industry production capacity within a month.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 August, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported continued progress in the special military operation. In the Donetsk direction, Russia’s forces repelled AFU attacks, eliminating over 340 militants and destroying vehicles and equipment. Similar progress was noted in the Zaporozhye, Kupyansk, and Krasny Liman directions, with AFU losses and military hardware destruction. The Vostok Group destroyed roughly 100 AFU personnel, vehicles, and artillery in the South Donetsk Direction.

On 29 August, according to TASS, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Wagner Group, was laid to rest at the Porokhovskoye cemetery in St. Petersburg. The private ceremony was attended by his family and friends, with Prigozhin’s press service confirming the event and allowing well-wishers to visit the cemetery to pay their respects.

On 29 August, according to TASS, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesman, stated that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, would not attend Prigozhin’s funeral, regardless of the arrangements.
He also emphasized that the Kremlin lacked any kind of information about the funeral. 

On 29 August, Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that Russia’s air defence systems intercepted and destroyed several Ukraine’s drones over the Tula and Belgorod regions. The drones were downed without information provided on potential damage or casualties. Ukraine’s drones have targeted Moscow and Russia’s areas recently in response to Kyiv’s promise to escalate the conflict into Russia’s territory. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 29 August, Antony J. Blinken, US Secretary of State, announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine to aid in its defence efforts. The package, valued at USD 250 million, includes AIM-9M air defence missiles, artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems, small arms ammunition, ambulances, and more.

On 29 August, the Vatican aimed to address the controversy arising from Pope Francis’ praise of Russia’s imperial history, clarifying that he did not intend to endorse current Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Matteo Bruni, Vatican spokesperson, stated that Francis aimed to highlight positive cultural aspects and spiritual history, not endorse imperialism. Beatitude Sviatoslav, Ukraine’s Greek Catholic leader, criticized Francis’ comments, interpreting them as support for nationalism causing the Ukraine conflict. The Vatican Embassy in Kyiv clarified that Francis opposes imperialism and colonialism, remaining neutral in the war while seeking peace.

On 29 August, as per the recent UK’s Defence Intelligence report on Ukraine, military service in Russia’s Armed Forces has grown lucrative post-invasion. Putin’s updates highlighted rising salaries, with junior ranks in Ukraine earning over 200,000 rubles monthly, significantly higher than Russia’s average salary. This financial incentive attracts personnel, particularly from economically disadvantaged regions. Nonetheless, meeting volunteer recruitment targets remains unlikely for Russia.

The Global Fallouts
On 29 August, according to a report by UNICEF, widespread learning loss is evident among Ukraine’s children due to ongoing disruptions caused by war and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to deteriorating learning outcomes in language, mathematics, and reading. Regina De Dominicis, UNICEF’s Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia, highlighted the distressing impact of attacks on schools and the challenges faced by over 6.7 million children. Around 57 per cent of teachers report declines in Ukraine’s language skills, while only one-third of enrolled students experience fully in-person learning. The ongoing education reform is crucial for Ukraine’s socio-economic recovery, with UNICEF working to enhance access to quality learning, support teachers, and ensure lifelong learning for all vulnerable children.

References
Iryna Balachuk, “Reintegration Ministry announces forced evacuation of children from 5 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast,” Ukrainska Pravda, 29 August 2023
Almost 1,500 people evacuated from Kupiansk district,” Ukrainska Pravda, 29 August 2023
Zelenskyy: Ukraine increases arms production,” Defence Industry Europe, 29 August 2023
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation,” Ministry of Defence of Russian Federation, 29 August 2023
Wagner chief Prigozhin laid to rest at Porokhovskoye cemetery in St. Petersburg,” TASS, 29 August 2023
No information at hand on Wagner chief’s funeral, Putin not attending regardless — Kremlin,” TASS, 29 August 2023
Russia Says Foiled Latest Ukrainian Drone Attacks,” The Moscow Times, 29 August 2023
New Package of Additional U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine,” U.S. Department of State, 29 August 2023
Nicole Winfield, “Vatican tries to calm outrage over pope’s praise of Russia’s imperial past,” Los Angeles Times, 29 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 29 August 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 29 August 2023
Widespread learning loss among Ukraine’s children, as students enter fourth year of disruption to education,” UNICEF, 29 August 2023


In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

GERMANY
Audit court slams government’s hidden debt 
On 29 August, auditors criticized Germany’s government for utilizing special funds amounting to EUR 869 billion, labelling it a “hidden debt.” The move challenges the fiscal rule aimed at maintaining Germany’s debt-to-GDP ratio below 60 per cent, as per EU standards. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s Chancellor, led a coalition government which tapped into non-budget sources like a EUR 100 billion defence fund and a EUR 60 billion climate fund, amid concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising energy costs. The court warned that these actions undermine parliamentary oversight and the debt rule’s effectiveness. The Ministry of Finance noted that such measures are temporary and focused on crises. (Laura Hulsemann, “Germany’s audit court slams Lindner’s ‘special funds’ — again,” Politico, 29 August 2023)

GREECE
Wildfire update: Day 11
On 29 August, 11 aircrafts and a helicopter from the EU were sent to battle a massive fire that has consumed over 300 square kilometres in Greece, making it EU’s largest wildfire ever. Greece, facing its eleventh day of blaze, has sought help from neighbouring countries to control the fire. Multiple fires this summer, attributed to climate issues, have plagued Greece. Janez Lenari, EU’s crisis management commissioner, emphasized the deployment’s demonstration of the EU’s crisis management commitment. (“Greece wildfire declared largest ever recorded in EU,” The Guardian, 29 August 2023)

SPAIN
Soccer federation’s restructuring plan after public uproar
On 29 August, Spain's government praised the soccer federation's reform plan, addressing the controversy surrounding its president's inappropriate gesture towards a women's national team member. Spain commits to fighting gender discrimination in sports. The federation faced societal and sporting backlash, and now seeks restructuring to ensure gender equality. Miquel Iceta, Interim Sports Minister, affirmed, "no more discrimination against women," emphasizing the change. (“Spanish government welcomes soccer federation's restructuring plan after kiss furore,” Reuters, 29 August 2023)

THE UK
Ultra-Low Emission Zone expansion 
On 29 August, London extended its Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to cover all of Greater London, amid controversy and resistance. Mayor Sadiq Khan and supporters believe this expansion will improve air quality, but critics fear the financial strain on residents already facing a cost-of-living crisis. Noncompliance may lead to fines up to GBP 180 daily. The move aligns with European cities adopting similar zones to combat pollution. Khan plans to assist vehicle owners by offering subsidies to replace non-compliant vehicles, addressing the financial challenges. (“London expands ULEZ toll zone for polluting vehicles,” Deutsche Welle, 29 August 2023)

REGIONAL
Potential EU climate commissioner stirs controversy 
On 29 August, the European Commission proposed appointing Wopke Hoekstra, Dutch Foreign Minister, to lead EU climate action, even though he is fiscally conservative and lacks green policy expertise. The Dutch caretaker government nominated Hoekstra to replace Frans Timmermans, prompting concerns from left-wing MEPs in the European Parliament about his suitability. Socialists worry about political balance, while others highlight his inexperience in climate policy. Hoekstra faces a challenging confirmation process. (Zia Weise, “Von der Leyen proposes Dutch minister as climate commissioner,” Politico, 29 August 2023)

Commission criticises EU’s 2030 expansion ambition 
On 29 August, the European Commission dismissed Charles Michel’s 2030 EU enlargement goal, creating a clash with the European Council. The dispute emerged after Michel suggested the EU should prepare for new members by 2030, prompting tensions. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a "multi-speed" approach to candidate country entry. Balkan countries keen to join must fulfil legislative conditions. The EU leaders will address this in October, particularly due to Ukraine’s conflict reigniting enlargement debates. The process is merit-based, requiring applicant countries to meet specific criteria for inclusion. (Gregorio Sorgi, “Commission snubs Charles Michel’s 2030 EU enlargement target,” Politico, 29 August 2023)

Danish Parliament in charge of BSPC
On 29 August, Henrik Miller, member of Parliament, was elected President of the Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference (BSPC) by the Danish Parliament. BSPC unites legislators from the Baltic Sea region to address climate and other regional concerns. Denmark’s inaugural BSPC presidency, lasting a year, will focus on Baltic security, encompassing energy supply, environment, and defence. The region’s energy vulnerability was exposed by Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, highlighting heavy reliance on Russia’s gas. (“The Danish Parliament takes over the presidency of the Baltic Sea collaboration,” The Danish Parliament, 29 August 2023)

Bosnia and Herzegovina elections 
On 29 August, the European Court of Human Rights deemed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s elections as undemocratic, favouring dominant ethnic groups, and prioritizing ethnic representation over other democratic principles. The European Commission responded by urging reforms to ensure equality and non-discrimination, emphasizing strengthening the country’s structure, including changes at the constitutional level, to achieve these objectives. The territorial division also affects voter rights, with ethnic-based voting in different regions. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “Bosnia and Herzegovina elections undemocratic, amplify ethnic divisions - Human Rights Court,” EuroNews, 29 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Former Algerian defence minister accused of violating laws 
On 28 August, Khaled Nezzar, Former Algerian Defence Minister, was indicted by the Swiss Attorney General’s Office at the Federal Criminal Court. The charges include violating laws of armed conflict and committing crimes against humanity during the Algerian civil war (1992-1994). Nezzar is further accused of condoning torture and brutal acts, and orchestrating structures to eliminate opposition, resulting in war crimes and attacks on civilians. The final submissions will be presented during the court hearing, with Nezzar presumed innocent until the final verdict is reached. (“The Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland indicts former Algerian defence minister,” The Federal Council, 29 August 2023)


29 August 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #607

War in Ukraine: Day 551

PRIMUS safely arrives in Istanbul; Legionnaires’ disease outbreak through water supply in Poland; EU to add new members by 2030

Photo : Andrii Klymenko/Euromaidan


War in Ukraine: Day 551
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 28 August, according to Ukrinform, in Zaporizhzhia region’s reclaimed village of Robotyne, Ukraine’s defenders were consolidating their position, focusing on stabilization, demining, and preparation for further actions. Oleksandr Shtupun, the Joint Press Center’s spokesperson, highlighted recent progress southeast of Robotyne, enabling greater troop deployment and manoeuvrability. Anticipating resistance, Shtupun expects challenging fighting ahead for control of Tokmak, about 20 kilometers away.

On 28 August, despite Russia’s warning and the recent naval incidents, the Liberian-flagged cargo ship PRIMUS safely arrived in Istanbul after departing Odesa, becoming the second civilian vessel from Ukraine to sail since Russia’s exit from a UN-backed Black Sea grain export agreement.

On 28 August, according to Ukrinform, as confirmed by Dmytro Lunin, the head of the Poltava Regional Military Administration, a Russian attack struck an industrial facility in the Poltava region. He stated that details about casualties are being verified.

On 27 August, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, expressed his desire for holding presidential and parliamentary elections in 2024, contingent on legislative changes, funding from partners, and international observers even at the front lines. Zelenskyy engaged with Lindsey Graham, US Senator, acknowledging potential US support for holding elections during wartime. He emphasized the need for legal changes and financial assistance for legitimate elections, proposing observers in trenches to ensure fairness. Zelenskyy mentioned the challenge of enabling seven million Ukraine’s refugees to vote. He underscored the urgency of elections within a year, aiming to avoid a prolonged absence of elections.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 August, TASS reported that according to Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister and Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s counterpart, are scheduled to hold talks in Moscow soon. The upcoming discussions reflect ongoing diplomatic engagement between the two countries amidst the complex regional situation.

On 28 August, Interfax reported that Robert Shonov, former US Consulate General employee in Vladivostok, was apprehended by Russia’s Federal Security service (FSB). The arrest was for allegedly gathering information on mobilization, military operations, and protests in Russia, based on instructions from American embassy diplomats. The FSB revealed that Shonov, charged under Article 275.1, cooperated confidentially with US embassy political department members Jeffrey Cillin and David Bernstein to collect sensitive data. Interrogations of the implicated American diplomats are planned, with summonses sent to the US Embassy in Moscow.

On 28 August, according to TASS, according to Sergey Sobyanin, Mayor of Moscow, Russia’s Air Defence troops successfully intercepted and destroyed an approaching unmanned aerial vehicle near Moscow. The incident occurred in the Lyubertsy area of the Moscow Region, resulting in no casualties or damage.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
On 28 August, according to Anadalu Ajansi, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President, is set to visit Russia’s Sochi soon, aiming to address the global food crisis. Turkey’s officials are working to revive the Black Sea grain deal, which was suspended by Russia in July. Moscow cites Western obligations’ failure in its own grain exports. However, Ankara seeks negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war and restore the grain deal paused due to the conflict.

On 28 August, government officials from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia urged Belarus to expel the Wagner mercenary group, citing territorial integrity concerns amid Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. The NATO members, except Estonia, share borders with Belarus. If a critical incident occurs, they will close all border crossings with Belarus. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner leader, adds uncertainty to the group’s future. Western officials believe Russia might bring Wagner under more direct control while maintaining its fighting capability. Some Wagner troops in Belarus have reportedly left over low pay, raising concerns about their whereabouts. 

On 28 August, according to The Guardian, a Swedish citizen of Russian origin was charged with gross illegal intelligence activities against Sweden and another foreign power. He is accused of transferring advanced technology with potential military use to Russia through his business activities. The suspect’s actions were allegedly aimed at enhancing Russia’s military capabilities. Sweden’s security police are actively countering such threats and preventing foreign powers from acquiring sensitive technology. They have also intensified efforts against illegal intelligence activities from foreign powers, particularly Russia, which seeks Swedish hi-tech products for military advancement. The suspect however denies the allegations. 

On 28 August, the UK's Ministry of Defence stated that Russia is highly likely to have cancelled Exercise ZAPAD 23, a planned joint strategic exercise (JSE) scheduled for September 2023. In recent years, Russia has prioritized western Russia for these exercises due to perceived NATO threats. However, the limited training value and domestic criticism following underwhelming performance in Ukraine likely contributed to this cancellation decision. Russia's military may lack sufficient troops and equipment for the exercise, and wartime sensitivities could be a factor as well.

References
Ukrainian military gain foothold in Robotyne, make preparations for further actions,” Ukrinform, 28 August 2023
Second Ukraine Port Ship Safely Reaches Istanbul,” Barron’s, 28 August 2023
Russian forces hit industrial facility in Poltava region,” Ukrinform, 28 August 2023
Olena Roshchina, “Zelenskyy says he wants elections in 2024: billions and observers in trenches needed,” Ukainska Pravda, 27 August 2023
The USA and the EU should share the risks of possible elections in Ukraine during the war - Volodymyr Zelenskyi,” President of Ukraine, 27 August 2023
Top diplomats of Russia, Turkey to hold talks in Moscow soon — Russian MFA,” TASS, 28 August 2023
FSB imputed to a former employee of the US Consulate General the collection of data on SVO,” Interfax, 28 August 2023
Russian Air Defense Troops destroy drone flying towards Moscow — mayor,” TASS, 28 August 2023
Diya Guldogan, “President Erdogan to visit Russia 'soon,' Turkish official says,” Anadalu Ajansi, 28 August 2023
Constant Meheut, “NATO Neighbors Demand Belarus Expel Wagner Fighters,” The New York Times, 28 August 2023
Swedish man charged with passing hi-tech equipment to Russia,” The Guardian, 28 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine- 28 August 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 28 August 2023


In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

GREECE
Greece wildfire update: Day ten
On 28 August, Greek officials increased fire fighting operations in the country’s northeastern region, where a major catastrophic wildfire was burning for the tenth day and showed no signs of abating. The fire in the Alexandroupolis and Evros areas near the Turkish border is responsible for 20 of Greece’s 21 wildfire-related deaths. Several European countries provided reinforcements to the army. Authorities are investigating what caused the fire, which has devastated massive swaths of forest, scorched homes, and forced the evacuation of thousands of people. Greece’s firefighting troops are stretched to the breaking point, and the country has therefore called for help from other European countries. Germany, Sweden, Croatia, and Cyprus have sent aircrafts, while dozens of Romanians, French, Czech, Bulgarian, Albanian, Slovak, and Serbian firefighters are helping on ground. (Elena Becatoros, “Greece reinforces firefighting forces to tackle massive blaze in the country’s northeast,” Associated Press, 28 August 2023)

POLAND
Legionnaires’ disease outbreak through water supply
On 28 August, Politico reported that the Legionella bacteria had been found in the water supply system of the south eastern Polish city of Rzeszow, prompting the country’s counterintelligence agency, ABW, to investigate whether the city was intentionally contaminated. Rzeszow is Poland’s key logistical hub for bringing military and humanitarian goods to Ukraine, as well as a US military facility. Since mid-August, the city has been the epicentre of a Legionnaires’ disease outbreak in the country, with 11 deaths and 144 cases reported. However the source of the pollution is unknown. According to the WHO, “the most common form of transmission is inhalation of contaminated aerosols from contaminated water,” which can occur through air conditioning cooling towers, hot and cold water systems, humidifiers, and whirlpool spas. Rzeszow cleaned its water supply over the weekend as a precaution.  (Wojciech Kosc, “Poland launches probe as Legionella confirmed in city water supply,” Politico, 28 August 2023)

SPAIN
Football Chief’s mother on hunger strike to seek justice for son
On 28 August, Spain’s football chief’s mother locked herself in a church in southern Spain and went on an indefinite hunger strike to seek justice for her son, as authorities launched an investigation into his behaviour. Rubiales, Spain’s football Chief, was sanctioned by FIFA after he refused to resign and stated that he was the victim of a “witch-hunt” by “fake feminists.” Rubiales stated that forward Jenni Hermoso had agreed to the “mutual” kiss. In response, Hermoso claimed that this was incorrect and that she had been the victim of an abuse of power. She further accused the federation of attempting to coerce her into backing Rubiales. (“Spanish football chief Luis Rubiales's mother on hunger strike over her son's treatment,” Euronews, 28 August 2023)

REGIONAL
EU to add new members by 2030
On 28 August, as the EU prepared for a new debate about its future size, Charles Michel, European Council President, announced that he wants Europe to be ready for enlargement by 2030. While eight countries are formally candidates, the accession process has stalled for many in the Western Balkans. For some countries, such as Turkey, the process has been officially halted, despite the fact that dynamics related to the conflict in Ukraine have reenergized the debate. According to Michel, the most difficult hurdle may be persuading Europeans to support the enlargement effort. He demanded that the next long-term EU budget examine enlargement ambitions and that the EU consider modifying its institutional structure for a larger form. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has focused minds in Brussels on the need for new political momentum to promote the ambitions of many applicants for membership. He also advised all applicants to settle bilateral disputes before joining the EU. Edi Rama, Albania’s Prime Minister, welcomed Michel's announcement, urging that words “materialize in... real steps forward.” He also expressed caution that Ukraine’s EU bid should not be at the expense of more established countries. ( Lili Bayer, “Charles Michel: Get ready by 2030 to enlarge EU,” Politico, 28 August 2023; “Michel says EU must be ready to admit new members by 2030,” Deutsche Welle, 28 August 2023)

EU economy’s return to trade surplus
On 28 August, after six straight quarters of deficit, the trade balance between the EU and the rest of the world returned to surplus. The shift occurred in the second quarter of this year, when the EU posted a surplus of EUR one billion. The major drivers of the increased trend were global sales of EU-made chemicals, machinery, vehicles, food, and beverages, which managed to offset purchases of energy items, such as gas and oil, whose prices remain abnormally high as a result of the war in Ukraine. The EU is heavily reliant on foreign producers of fossil fuels, making it vulnerable to significant price swings in global markets. Since mid-2021, the EU has had to foot a significant sum in order to ensure energy supplies, keep the economy going, and prevent the dreaded scenario of blackouts or rationing. Because the EU spent less money on gas and oil, the trade balance improved and reached a surplus in the second quarter of this year. (”EU economy returns to trade surplus after almost two years in deficit,” Euronews, 28 August 2023)

Legal action against three EU climate policies
On 28 August, the Polish government filed legal challenges against the European Parliament and the EU Council, arguing that three EU climate policies endanger energy security and fail to protect citizens’ well-being. Warsaw has requested that the EU’s highest court annul the three policies, which include the bloc’s historic phaseout of the combustion engine. The first contends that the EU prohibition on the sale of new CO2-emitting cars beginning in 2035 imposes undue taxes on the weakest members of society. The second lawsuit contends that the EU’s annual targets for greenhouse gas emissions established for Poland endangers the country's energy security. The EU’s so-called market stability reserve, which tries to handle the surplus of emission allowances in the EU carbon trading scheme, is the final challenge. Poland believes the policies violate EU treaties since they were enacted without majority Council approval. (Mared Gwyn Jones, "Poland asks EU Court of Justice to cancel three EU climate policies,” Euronews, 28 August 2023)

Increasing train mishaps linked to Russia’s involvement
On 28 August, Polish police investigated a series of sabotage assaults that halted dozens of trains over the weekend, amid increased concerns about Russian attempts to disrupt the country. According to Polish rail authorities, many occurrences involving the unlawful activation of an emergency stop signal occurred affecting the trains. (Loveday Morris, “Poland investigates train mishaps for possible Russian connection,” The Washington Post, 28 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Niger Coup: France ambassador refuses to leave 
On 28 August, BBC reported that despite being given a 48-hour deadline to depart from Niger, Sylvain Itte, France’s Ambassador remained in the nation. He was compelled to leave as diplomatic relations deteriorated significantly. On July 26, Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s President, was deposed in a coup condemned by France and many of Niger’s neighbours, including the West African regional group ECOWAS. Some protesters held posters calling for the withdrawal of French troops, while a video released on social media appeared to show local Muslim imams leading prayers outside the installation. Anti-French sentiment and protests in the region have recently heightened, with some critics claiming France’s presence to be a new kind of colonialism. In the midst of this unrest, soldiers in Mali, Burkina Faso, and recently Niger, staged coups while claiming that a change in government was required to combat the jihadists. (Wedaeli Chibelushi, “Niger coup: France defies ultimatum for ambassador to leave Niamey,” BBC, 28 August 2023)


28 August 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #606

The crisis over Turkey-Cyprus road project: Six Questions | War in Ukraine: Days 549 & 550

France bans abaya to promote secularism; UK's Conservative lawmakers strongly criticises Sunak’s leadership before quitting; EU plans new anti-terror missions in Gulf of Guinea 

Photo : AP Photo/Petros Karadjias


EM Comment
The crisis over Turkey-Cyprus road project: Six Questions
Rishika Yadav

What happened?
Cyprus, nestled in the eastern Mediterranean, boasts a rich history marked by intricate cultural, political, and religious dynamics. 

On 22 August, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President, rebuked UN peacekeepers (UNFICYP) for obstructing a road project in ethnically divided Cyprus, branding it “unacceptable” and alleging bias against Turkish Cypriots. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, said: “threats to the safety of UN peacekeepers and damage to UN property are unacceptable and may constitute serious crimes under international law.” President Erdogan stated that denying Turkish Cypriots access to Pyla infringes on their rights and criticized the peacekeepers for compromising their impartiality. Erdogan said: “What is expected of the United Nations peacekeeping force is that it does justice to its name and contributes to finding a solution to the humanitarian needs of all sides on the island.” 

On 19 August, Turkish Cypriots clashed with international peacekeepers; the latter had halted the construction of a road encroaching upon the island's UN-monitored buffer zone. On 17 August, the UN mission in Cyprus said that it would prevent the construction of a road by Turkish Cypriots that would breach the UN-controlled buffer zone, potentially escalating tensions. 

What is the road project all about?
On 17 August, the construction of the road project began, when Turkish Cypriot security personnel, alongside a civilian contractor, commenced construction near the Pergamos checkpoint within the buffer zone. Turkish Cypriot authorities aim to connect Pyla/Pile village in the UN-controlled buffer zone to their territory, emphasizing improved access and mobility for Turkish Cypriot residents. They assert their right to develop their sovereign territory's infrastructure autonomously. However, Greek Cypriot authorities and the UN peacekeeping force oppose the project, citing disruption to the buffer zone's status quo and jeopardized peace prospects.

What is the problem?
Two prominent ethnic groups, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, distinguish the island with diverse linguistic, religious, and historical roots. The island's division since 1974, triggered by Turkey's intervention in response to a Greek Cypriot nationalist coup, has led to the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus controlling the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus reigning in the north, albeit recognized solely by Turkey. UNFICYP and the buffer zone maintain separation, despite failed attempts at reunification.

The current road project discord reflects the persistent tensions between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities. Turkish Cypriots seek to link Arsos (a village in Turkish Cypriot territory) to Pyla (Greek Cypriot-Turkish village), within the buffer zone to their territory, aiming to uplift conditions for their residents. The status quo in the buffer zone is maintained by a 1974 UN mandate, which faces disruption in the middle of road disputes. However, Greek Cypriots and UNFICYP denounced the endeavour, citing buffer zone disruption and jeopardized peace efforts. Accusations of Turkish Cypriot forces clashing with UN personnel and damaging vehicles complicate matters further. 

What is UNFICYP? And what is its involvement?
Established in 1964, the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) serves to prevent conflicts between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, distinct in ethnicity, language, and faith. UNFICYP upholds law and order, aids humanitarian efforts, and supports negotiations to resolve the Cyprus problem. Since its deployment after the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus, UNFICYP's role has evolved significantly. Tasked with supervising the newly established 180-kilometer buffer zone, its initial focus was to prevent hostilities, oversee ceasefire lines, and aid displaced populations. UNFICYP orchestrated prisoner exchanges and facilitated movements of Cypriot communities between the north and south. High-level agreements in 1977 and 1979 for a bi-communal federal republic marked cooperative efforts. Yet, challenges emerged;, as in 1989, Greek Cypriot protests turned violent, straining relations and raising tensions. Adaptations continued, with a broader civilian component introduced in 1993. UNFICYP played a pivotal role in expanding crossing points in 2003, fostering personal connections and building trust. It supported peace negotiations in 2008 and grappled with the unsuccessful Switzerland summit in 2017, enduring increased tensions and incidents in the buffer zone. Throughout, UNFICYP has aimed to defuse conflicts, encourage cooperation, and uphold its mandate. UNFICYP's role in the current road project discord stems from its responsibility to patrol and oversee the 180-kilometer buffer zone dividing the island. This zone aims to prevent strife and maintain the status quo until a peaceful solution is achieved.

What are the issues?
First, complex regional dynamics. The road project initiative aligns with Turkey's forceful foreign policy, intertwined with ongoing disputes over maritime boundaries and energy reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey's involvement in gas exploration and drilling activities near Cyprus' contested waters has intensified tensions, leading to standoffs and clashes involving Cyprus, Greece, France, and the EU. The road project also violates the UN resolutions and the buffer zone agreement, which prohibit any unilateral or military activities in the area. 

Second, socio-economic disparities. Turkish Cypriots lack international recognition, EU access, and struggle with development, infrastructure, education, health, and environment. Greek Cypriots, on the other hand, are benefited with  EU integration, but grapple with unemployment, debt, and corruption. These hurdles fuel frustration and pessimism among Cypriots about their island's future, eroding confidence-building measures. 

Third, conflicting perspectives. Turkish Cypriots advocate a two-state solution for sovereignty, while Greek Cypriots support a federal arrangement. Greek Cypriots suspect military motives, contrasting with Turkey's portrayal of the project as "humanitarian." Greek Cypriots accuse the Turkish Cypriot force of intimidation, undermining sovereignty and security by enabling Turkish military presence. The UN and international community favor a bi-communal and bi-zonal federation. For Turkish Cypriots, the project is essential, granting access and aiding Pyla/Pile village residents isolated from services. They argue sovereignty rights and minimal impact on the Greek Cypriot zone. They also urge project cessation, condemns attacks on UN personnel, and emphasizes UNFICYP's role. 

What about international actors?
France, critical of Turkey’s Mediterranean involvement, supports Cyprus’s sovereignty, condemning the road project as a breach of UN resolutions. It calls for Turkey to respect UNFICYP’s role, urging dialogue with Greek Cypriots. 

The UK, a guarantor power and Cyprus’ base-area holder, expresses concern over the project’s security impact and settlement prospects. It supports dialogue, aiding reconciliation efforts. 

The EU, having Cyprus as a member despite the Annan Plan rejection, backs the Republic and Greece in their maritime disputes with Turkey. It denounces the road project as a hindrance to peace, reaffirms UNFICYP’s mandate, and supports bi-zonal, bi-communal federation for settlement. External actors’ stances influence both sides, with France and the EU aligning more with Greek Cypriots, while the UK strives for equilibrium. 


War in Ukraine: Day 548
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 27 August, the second ship previously blocked in Ukraine due to Russia’s aggression successfully entered Romania’s territorial waters. On August 26, the bulk carrier PRIMUS, flagged under Liberia, left Odesa Port, marking the second such departure post- grain deal termination. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, confirmed this while expressing gratitude to those involved in ensuring freedom of navigation. The vessel, laden with steel for African clients, had been stranded in Ukraine since February 2022.

On 27 August, according to Ukrinform, Oleksandr Shtupun, Ukraine’s Defence Forces spokesperson of Tavria direction, said that Ukraine’s defence forces are advancing. The advancement is towards Novoprokopivka, in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Despite tough conditions, advancements occurred in the Urozhayne, Robotyne, Melitopol, and Berdiansk sectors. Russia’s pressure on the Avdiyivka and Maryinka fronts was unsuccessful, with 17 captives taken. 

On 27 August, Serhiy Popko, Chief of Kyiv City Military Administration, confirmed of Ukraine’s air defence forces effectively neutralized Russia’s targets advancing towards Kyiv. Russia’s Tu-95 strategic bombers launched Kh-101/555/55 missiles from the Caspian. No casualties or damage in Kyiv were reported. Specifics about downed targets will be shared by the Air Force after verification.

On 26 August, according to Ukrinform, a tragic incident occurred on 25 August, as two L-39 combat training aircraft collided mid-air in Zhytomyr region, resulting in the loss of three pilots’ lives. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office initiated a criminal proceeding for a flight rule violation. The Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations is conducting the pre-trial investigation, while the Air Force of Ukraine confirmed the crash and pilot casualties. Notably, a prominent pilot from the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, known as JUICE, was among the victims.

On 26 August, according to Ukrinform, two innocent civilians lost their lives due to Russia’s attack on the Kupiansk district in the Kharkiv region. This incident occurred as Russia’s projectiles struck a cafe with people present, resulting in two deaths and one injury. Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Head, reported the incident on Telegram.

On 26 August, according to Ukrainska Pravda, Oleksii Makeiev, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany, attributed the slower pace of the current Ukraine’s defence counteroffensive to delays in Western weapons supply. Makeiev emphasized that Russia had utilized the time to fortify positions. He highlighted prolonged efforts in training and equipping Ukraine’s assault brigades with Western weaponry. Makeiev engaged in substantial negotiations with Germany for Taurus missiles and stressed the importance of F-16 fighter jets due to Ukraine’s limited airspace control. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 27 August, Russia’s defence ministry reported Russia deploying a fighter aircraft to prevent a US Air Force reconnaissance drone from entering its airspace over the Black Sea. The foreign UAV changed its course upon the approach of Russia's fighter, avoiding any violation of Russia's border.

On 27 August, Russia's Investigative Committee confirmed the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, after a plane crash. Formal genetic analysis identified all ten victims, including Dmitry Utkin, suspected Wagner operations manager, on the Embraer jet. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, dismissed foul play claims on Russia. Air traffic violation investigation is underway; the cause of the crash remains undisclosed.

On 26 August, the Russian Defence Ministry’s report highlighted ongoing progress in their military operation. In the Kupyansk sector, Zapad Group units, aided by aviation and artillery, improved their position, thwarting five attacks by Ukraine’s detachments. Zaporizhzhia saw three of Ukraine's attempts countered by Russia’s forces. The Donetsk direction saw successful defence against six AFU assault groups. The Tsentr Group halted attacks near Chervonaya Dibrova, while the Vostok Group held against two attacks, and the Kherson direction saw losses for Ukraine. Russia’s forces destroyed numerous military assets, including radar stations and unmanned aerial vehicles.

On 26 August, Sergey Sobyanin, Moscow Mayor, stated that an attack drone heading towards Moscow was successfully intercepted by Russia’s Air Defence Forces. The incident occurred in the Istra district. Fortunately, no casualties or damage were reported, according to preliminary information shared by Sobyanin.

On 26 August, according to The Moscow Times, Russia reported shooting down two approaching drones, one near Moscow and another near the Belgorod border. The surge in attacks on Russia and Crimea coincides with Kyiv’s intent to expand conflict towards Russia. In the Belgorod region, Ukraine's shelling injured six in Urazovo, near the border. Vyacheslav Gladkov, Governor of Belgorod Oblast, accused Ukraine of using cluster munitions, causing residential damage and serious civilian injuries.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 26 August, the UK’s Ministry of Defence updated that while Ukraine’s counter-offensive pressures Russia’s forces in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine; Russia’s Western Group of Forces continues small-scale attacks in the Kupiansk-Lyman area, achieving limited advances. The Ministry analysed that as Ukraine gains ground in the south, Russia may shift its strategy towards a potential operational-level offensive, focusing on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis to create a buffer zone around Luhansk Oblast.

References
Second vessel leaves Odesa Port after Russia’s grain deal exit,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2023
Second vessel reaches Romania’s waters after navigating through Black Sea corridor,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
Defense forces advancing towards Novoprokopivka, Mala Tokmachka, Ocheretuvate in Zaporizhzhia region,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
All Russian missiles intercepted on approach to Kyiv overnight Sunday - capital authorities,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
Air defenses in action on approaches to Kyiv as Russia launches cruise missiles,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
Two training aircraft collide in Zhytomyr region. Three pilots killed,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2023
Two civilians killed as Russians attack café in Kharkiv region’s village,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2023
Ambassador to Germany calls delays in military assistance main reason for slow counteroffensive,” Ukrainska Pravda, 26 August 2023
Ukraine's Defence Minister confident that Germany will provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles,” Ukrainska Pravda, 26 August 2023
Russia Says Scrambled Fighter Plane To Deter US Drone Over Black Sea,” Barron’s, 27 August 2023
Wagner Boss Prigozhin’s Death Confirmed by Russian Investigators – Moscow,” The Moscow Times, 27 August 2023
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (26 August 2023),” Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 26 August 2023
Air defenses down attack drone approaching Moscow, says Mayor Sobyanin,” TASS, 26 August 2023
Air defenses down attack drone approaching Moscow, says Mayor Sobyanin,” TASS, 26 August 2023
Russia Says Downs 2 Drones as Ukrainian Shelling Wounds 6,” The Moscow View, 26 August 2023
Liliana Botnariuc, Jürgen Dahlkamp, Jörg Diehl, Matthias Gebauer, Hubert Gude, Roman Höfner, Martin Knobbe, Roman Lehberger, Frederik Obermaier, Jan Puhl, Alexandra Rojkov, Marcel Rosenbach, Fidelius Schmid, Sandra Sperber, Thore Schröder, Thomas Schulz, Gerald Traufetter, Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt und Jean-Pierre Ziegler, “All the Evidence Points To Kyiv,” Spiegel International, 26 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 26 August 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 26 August 2023


In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

DENMARK
Illicit trade increases gang violence
On 27 August, a 30-year-old man was killed, and four others were injured in a shooting in the Copenhagen district known for its counterculture ambience and thriving hashish trade. Poul  Kjeldsen, Copenhagen police spokesman, informed Danish media that two masked shooters  opened fire inside a building in the Christiania neighbourhood. According to Kjeldsen, the shooting was linked to criminal gangs. Since the 1970s, when hippies began squatting at a decommissioned naval base, Christiania has been a freewheeling anarchist commune.  Authorities tolerated hashish sales there until 2004, when police began to crack down on the illicit trade. Nonetheless, the hashish trade has continued, with occasional outbreaks of violence associated with criminal gangs. (“1 killed, 4 wounded in shooting in Copenhagen’s  Christiania neighborhood, police in Denmark say,” Associated Press, 27 August 2023)

FRANCE
Religious garments banned to promote secularism 
On 27 August, Gabriel Attal, France’s Education Minister, stated that the Islamic garment known as the abaya will be prohibited in schools. France outlawed religious symbols in schools in 2004, including huge crosses, Jewish kippahs, and Islamic headscarves. However, the abaya exists in a grey area and is not explicitly prohibited. The emphasis on abayas comes in the wake of an upsurge in girls wearing Islamic dress in French schools; a trend that critics claim violates the country’s secularist norms. Religious minorities, according to critics, experience prejudice in a historically Christian society. In 2020, a radicalized Chechen refugee killed a French teacher who had presented cartoons of the prophet Mohammad in class, exacerbating tensions over education and religion. (Clea Caulcutt, “French education minister announces ban on Islamic dress in schools,” Politico, 27 August 2023)

“It’s the end of Renaissance” states Socialist Party
On 27 August, Gerald Darmanin, France’s strong Interior Minister offered a stark warning about the risk of far-right icon Marine Le Pen winning the presidency in the next election, while bolstering his own goal to follow Emmanuel Macron, France’s President in 2027. Darmanin, who is still only 40 years old, leads what is now a super-ministry of the interior that also oversees France’s global overseas territories. He’s made a name for himself as a tough-talking right wing personality. Polls reveal that public discontent is growing over problems such as immigration, security, and the expense of living, which her National Rally (RN) party is increasingly confident of exploiting. According to the daily Le Monde, Darmanin decided to emancipate himself and go on the offensive after being rejected for the position of prime monitor. Darmanin’s political style is reminiscent of his mentor, Nicolas Sarkozy, former President, who similarly opened his presidential campaign with a hyperactive tenure as a tough interior minister. (“French Interior Minister Darmanin warns of risk of Le Pen victory in next election,” France 24, 27 August 2023)

GERMANY
Storm causes boundless damage in a small town 
On 27 August, a storm with huge hailstones damaged four-fifths of the structures in a town in the southern German state of Bavaria. Police in Kissing, just outside Augsburg, reported that 12 people were hurt when a beer tent they were attempting to erect was blown over. Wind also broke wooden slats off the roof, while hail caused noticeable damage to the facade of a residential house. The biggest damage looked to be in Bad Bayersoien, with roughly 1,300 inhabitants. The country was struck by hailstones of up to 8 centimetres which damaged parked automobiles and cracked roof tiles and attic skylights. According to reports, 80 per cent of the buildings were severely damaged, but no one was injured.  (“Large hailstones cause extensive damage in a small German town as a storm hits Bavaria,” Associated Press, 27 August 2023)

Turmoil in coalition government
On 27 August, OIaf Scholz, German Chancellor promised that his coalition government would rapidly resolve a dispute over child payments that has hampered efforts to end months of destructive public infighting. Scholz, a center-left Social Democrat, leads a coalition of three socially liberal parties. However, his two junior partners, the ecological, usually left-leaning Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats, frequently disagree on economic and other issues. The two fought bitterly earlier this year over a proposal to replace fossil-fuel home heating systems, which contributed to the government’s low poll ratings. Top officials had planned to show a more united front following summer but turmoil emerged when the Green minister for families, Lisa Paus blocked a plan by Finance Minister Christian Lindner for tax  relief for companies, meant to help Germany’s stuttering economy. (“Germany’s Scholz vows a quick resolution to his coalition government’s latest  standoff,” Associated Press, 27 August 2023)

GREECE
Nine-day wildfire continues to stay ablaze 
On 27 August, a wildfire near the northeastern Greek region of Evros which was blazing for nine days was unlikely to be contained. According to the European Commission, the fire, which threatens Greece’s Dadia national park, is the largest single fire in EU history. Significant wildfires were also seen on the suburbs of Athens and on the Aegean island of Andros. Winds are predicted to shift, potentially spreading the flames much further this week. The government has ordered an evacuation. Climate change, according to European Union officials, is to blame for the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires in southern Europe. After 2017, last year was the second-worst year on record for wildfire devastation.  (“Greece: Evros fire 'cannot be contained' — regional official,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2023)

ITALY
Lampedusa: A migrant hotspot 
On 27 August, according to Italian media, 4,121 migrants and refugees were believed to be in the Lampedusa hotspot. Authorities are seeking to relocate the majority of the new arrivals to various districts throughout Italy. A total of 1,918 people arrived on the island in 65 different landings the day before, with another 1,798 arriving in 45 landings. Only two groups of migrants fled from Mahdia and one from Susa, Tunisia, according to the majority of the refugees. Filippo Romano, the Prefect of the Agrigento province, stated that “Lampedusa can no longer receive refugees.” The majority of the migrants had already been transferred by the Italian authorities because the facility cannot accommodate many people on a long run. (“Lampedusa under pressure after record-breaking migrant arrivals,” Euronews, 27 August 2023)

ROMANIA
Explosions hit unauthorized gas stations 
On 27 August, two explosions shook a gas station in Crevedia, Romania, just northwest of the city, Bucharest. Authorities are currently investigating the event. Two people were killed and at least 56 others were injured in two explosions at a petrol station. The two explosions happened at a liquefied petroleum station (LPG) in Crevedia which was not authorized to operate. Raed Arafat, state secretary of the Interior Ministry, stated that the region must be evaluated as it remains hazardous. (“Romania: Deadly explosions hit gas station near  Bucharest,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2023)

THE UK 
Conservative lawmakers strongly criticises Sunak’s leadership before quitting 
On 27 August, Nadine Dorries, UK’s Member of Parliament, launched a harsh attack on Rishi Sunak, the Conservative Party’s leader, accusing him of running a “zombie parliament” and without political direction. This came after a series of scandals drove Boris Johnson, former Prime Minister, to resign, and economic difficulties forced his successor, Liz Truss, to resign after only six weeks. Sunak has attempted to rebuild his party’s legitimacy through technocratic leadership. However, with high inflation, economic stagnation, industrial unrest, and long wait times for the state-run health care system. His Conservatives are trailing Labour in polls ahead of the upcoming election. Dorries commented, “In your impatience to become Prime Minister, you put your personal ambition above the stability of the country and our economy.” (“Conservative UK lawmaker formally quits with scathing attack on PM  Sunak,” Reuters, 27 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
EU plans new anti-terror missions in Gulf of Guinea 
On 27 August, according to Deutsche Welle, the EU will undertake a new mission in West Africa this fall. The combined military-civilian operation will seek to prevent the spread of unrest caused by jihadi groups. The mission will aim to train and advise local security forces, assist in the preparation of anti-terror operations, provide technical assistance, and implement security-related confidence-building measures. The EU is concerned that Islamist militants  would “extend their activities in West Africa from the Sahel zone to the southern coastal  countries on the Gulf of Guinea, leading to even more widespread instability in the region.” The EU also seeks to fight Russian influence in the region, which has been spread by Wagner mercenaries who have supported Sahelian military governments. The collapse of Niger to junta control has been especially troubling because it had been a crucial ally to Western countries working in the region. The EU’s situation deteriorated further when Mali expelled French and German servicemen that had been training Malian military and police. (“EU planning new Africa mission in Gulf of Guinea — report,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2023)


26 August 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #605

The Mediterranean: Continuing migrant boat disasters | War in Ukraine: Day 548

Greece strategic ties with India; New EU Digital Services Act imposes rules on tech giants; US supports North Macedonia’s EU bid amid constitutional changes

Photo : Reuters


In Focus
The Mediterranean: Continuing Migrant Boat Disasters 
Sreeja JS

On 07 August, BBC reported on a shipwreck near Tunisia’s Kerkennah Islands, with 11 dead and another 44 migrants missing. 

On 03 August, two vessels were reported to have sunk near the Italian island of Lampedusa. Italy’s coast guards rescued around 57 people while 33 were missing. Flavio di Giacomo, spokesperson of the International Organization for Migration, said that the migrants were from Guinea and the Ivory Coast. According to survivors’ testimony, they departed from Sfax, a Tunisian port city, before being capsized and rescued by a commercial boat. He also noted that the vessels were frail and could quickly capsize and disintegrate after setting out to the sea.

According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 1800 people have died in the Central Mediterranean in 2023. The number of departures increased compared to last year. According to UNHCR, sea arrivals to Italy are 104,808 in 2023 (year-to-date) compared to 49,792 (year-to-date) in 2022.

Who are the migrants? 
Tunisia has become the key transit point for migrants to go to Europe, especially Italy, where the migrant population has substantially increased since 2014 (according to organizations such as Human Rights Watch, UNHCR and IOM working with the migrants the numbers are between 20,000 and 50,000). 

The biggest group is those from the Ivory Coast, who represent one-third of the total, followed by citizens of Guinea and Mali. According to a report Africa News, these countries have free visa agreements with Tunisia, indicating that many migrants arrived through legal means. 

According to Le Monde diplomatique, the immigration status of a vast majority of migrants hailing from Sub-Saharan African countries is irregular. Even those eligible for visas also face troubles because of the bureaucracy. A fine of around USD 6.50 is charged to those who overstay their visa. Thus, the accumulated debt and the monetary need to go either home or to Europe force the migrants to take up blue-collar jobs where they are paid average salaries even 30 per cent less than Tunisians. 

What are the reasons for migration?
First, political instability and violence in Tunisia and Sub-Saharan Africa (countries such as Guinea, Sudan, and South Sudan). The migrants often flee due to extreme poverty, unemployment, political persecution, and political instability in their home countries. When they pass through the North African countries, they face unfair treatment and prejudice from the locals, forcing them to embark on the perilous journey across the Sea. Traditionally, Tunisia has been a transit route used by migrants. The recent outbreaks of conflict and the amplifying insecurity in the region have increased the arrival of Sub-Saharan migrants in the country. The government is often hostile to the migrants. Moreover, in February 2023, Kais Saied, Tunisia’s President, delivered a speech in which he claimed that Sub-Saharan migrants threaten the country’s identity, accelerating migration across the Sea. The country is also facing a political upheaval after Saied rewrote the Constitution in 2021 to concentrate power in his hands. 

Secondly, the economic crisis in Tunisia. According to the International Organization for Migration, around 1,600 Tunisians crossed the Mediterranean Sea on smugglers’ boats between January and March 2023, compared to 900 from last year (January to March 2022). Apart from the crackdown on migrants, inflation and food shortages plague the country. Tunisia’s debt has reached 90 per cent of its GDP, increasing the risk of default. Saied also refused to endorse an IMF bailout of USD 1.9 billion, adding to donors’ worry that he would not implement the reforms his administration has promised before disbursement. Moreover, Joseph Borrell, EU’s Foreign Policy chief, warned in March 2023 that the political and economic crisis in Tunisia could fuel a wave of migration into Europe.

Where are they migrating from?
According to UNHCR, from January to July 2023, 104,808 people migrated into Italy from Türkiye, Tunisia and Libya, and Algeria via Sea routes. There are ten most common countries of origin. 26 per cent of the migrants are from Guinea and Ivory Coast (13 per cent each). Followed by Egypt (nine per cent), Tunisia and Bangladesh (eight per cent each), Pakistan (seven per cent), Burkina Faso (six per cent), Cameroon and Mali (four per cent each). In 2022 (between January and July), 21 per cent of the migrants were from Egypt; 20 per cent were from Tunisia, followed by 17 per cent from Bangladesh.

References
Sofia Bettiza and Robert Plummer, “Forty-one migrants die in shipwreck off Lampedusa,” BBC, 09 August 2023
Charlene Anne Rodrigues and Lauren, “Mother and baby among 13 dead after migrant boats sink off Italian coast,” BBC, 07 August 2023
Emma Bubola, “Dozens of Migrants Die After Boat Sinks in Strait of Sicily,” The New York Times, 09 August 2023
Sub-Saharans are no longer welcome in Tunisia!” Le Monde diplomatique, 07 August 2023
Lauriane Noelle Vofo Kana, “How did Tunisia become a hostile land for sub-saharan African migrants? [Interview],” Africa News, 10 August 2023
Monica Pinna, “Migrant crisis in the Mediterranean: From Tunisia to Italy, who are those fleeing to Europe?,” Euro News, 01 June 2023
Heba Saleh and Amy Kazmin, “Tunisia’s ‘hostile environment’ pushes migrants across Mediterranean,” Financial Times, 04 April 2023
Vivian Yee, “Europe Pushed Tunisia to Keep Migrants Away. The Result Is Harsh.,” The New York Times, 20 July 2023
Italy Weekly Snapshot - 21 August 2023,” UNHCR, 21 August 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 548
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 25 August, Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, met Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, in Kyiv. Talks encompassed Ukraine’s peace plan, preparations for the Global Peace Summit, and concerns over Russia blocking the Black Sea grain route. Earlier, on 18 August, Germany's Bild newspaper revealed plans of Russia, Turkey, and Qatar’s for a fresh grain export pact after Moscow exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Under this arrangement, Russia would supply grain mainly to African countries, supported by Qatar, with Turkey managing logistics.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 25 August, according to TASS, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, rejected claims of Kremlin involvement in a plane crash involving Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group leader. Peskov emphasized the West’s speculative angle and urged reliance on facts. He highlighted the ongoing investigation to establish more details.

On 25 August, Moscow’s Federal Security Service (FSB) accused Kyiv of manipulating Russians to ignite government buildings, warning such acts could lead to 19-year jail terms. Attacks on army offices and rail sabotage have risen since Russia’s troops entered Ukraine. The FSB claims Kyiv recruits Russians online for arson, targeting various groups. Several cases have led to sentences.

On 25 August, Russia’s Defence Ministry announced the downing of 42 Ukrainian drones near Crimea, the largest recent aerial attack on the peninsula, following Kyiv’s claim of a special forces raid. Nine drones were destroyed over Crimea, while 33 were electronically suppressed or crashed before reaching targets.

On 25 August, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported thwarting Ukraine’s attempt to launch an improved S-200 missile for an attack on Russia’s civilian sites. The missile was detected and destroyed over Kaluga Region, preventing the strike. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 25 August, according to Meduza, Finland’s police apprehended Russia’s ultranationalist Yan Petrovsky, leader of the neo-Nazi paramilitary group “Task Force Rusich,” on Ukraine’s war crime charges. He replaced injured Alexey Milchakov, commander of Task Force Rusich, and fought alongside Russia’s military in Ukraine. Kyiv requested his extradition, confirmed by the Russia’s Embassy.

On 25 August, according to European Pravda, agriculture ministers from Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary will halt Ukraine’s grain imports after 15 September, with possible individual restrictions. They also aim to extend subsidies for grain transit and expand import bans to other products. The EU initially allowed domestic bans until 15 September, but Poland and Hungary’s intent to persist strengthens their stance against lifting restrictions. Ukraine demands EU negotiations, while Poland remains firm on maintaining the ban independently.

On 24 August, the Pentagon announced plans to commence F-16 fighter jet training for Ukraine’s pilots in the US from September. Originally, a European coalition effort led by the Netherlands and Denmark was set for pilot instruction. However, due to capacity constraints, Ukraine will now send several pilots and support personnel for training in the US. The training will begin with English-language courses in Texas, followed by flight training in Arizona. While the F-16s won’t immediately impact Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Zelenskyy anticipates receiving around 61 F-16s from various NATO countries, bolstering the country’s air capabilities.

References
Dinara Khalilova, “Turkish foreign minister meets with Zelensky in Kyiv,” The Kyiv Independent, 25 August 2023
Spokesman dismisses lies about Kremlin’s involvement in crash of Prigozhin’s plane,” TASS, 25 August 2023
Russia warns of 'severe' sentences for arson of state buildings,” Zawya, 25 August 2023
Russia Says Repelled Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Attack on Crimea,” The Moscow Times, 25 August 2023
Russian Air Defense destroys Ukrainian missile in Kaluga Region — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 25 August 2023
Finland arrests Russian ultra-nationalist wanted in Ukraine for war crimes,” Meduza, 25 August 2023
Joshua Askew, “'Wagner is alive and will live in Belarus', says Lukashenko,” Euronews, 25 August 2023
Five EU Countries Agreed to Continue Ban on Ukrainian Grain Importing,” European Pravda, 25 August 2023
Jimmy Vielkind, “Western Authorities Investigate Possible Poisonings of Russian Activist and Journalists Living Abroad,” The Wall Street Journal, 25 August 2023
Eric Schmitt and Lara Jakes, “Pentagon Plans to Begin Training Ukrainian Pilots on F-16s in U.S.,” The New York Times, 24 August 2023


In Brief
Rishika Yadav

BELGIUM
Action plan to enhance security at Brussels’ Gare du Midi
On 25 August, Belgium’s government unveiled an action plan to bolster security in and around Brussels’ Gare du Midi, responding to growing concerns about rising crime and drug abuse at the prominent international train station. Alexander De Croo, Prime Minister, and Annelies Verlinden, Interior Minister, stated that the plan aims to address immediate security apprehensions while collaborating with federal and local police, SNCB (railway operator) security, and immigration services to develop longer-term strategies against crime and illegal activities. Measures include homelessness support, addiction treatment, enhanced camera surveillance, and infrastructure changes to improve safety. The move follows calls for assistance from the federal government due to alarming conditions reported by Sophie Dutordoir, CEO of SNCB. (Hanne Cokelaere, “Belgium plans security boost at Gare du Midi after drugs and crime spike,” Politico, 25 August 2023)

DENMARK
Ban on burning Quran 
On 25 August, Peter Hummelgaard, Denmark’s Justice Minister, announced a proposed ban on burning religious texts in public places, including the Quran, to prevent inappropriate treatment of sacred objects. While aimed at curbing religious offense, the ban raises debates about free speech and religious expression. The decision reflects Denmark’s attempt to balance between freedom of expression and preventing actions that incite religious tensions, while also acknowledging the sensitivities involved in such matters. (“Denmark to ban Quran burnings, says justice minister,” Deutsche Welle, 25 August 2023)

ESTONIA
Calls for resignation of Prime Minister
On 25 August, opposition leaders in Estonia demand Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’s resignation over revelations that her husband’s firm, Stark Logistics, continued business with Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The Center Party and Isamaa party initiated discussions on a no-confidence motion against Kallas. Despite supporting Ukraine against Russia’s aggression, Kallas’s husband’s actions created controversy. Stark Logistics indicated assistance to Estonian clients in accordance with imposed laws and sanctions. Kallas’s Reform Party (Squirrel Party) supporters back her, but polls show majority public opinion favoring her stepping down. Media outlets, including Eesti Päevaleht and Postimees, have called for Kallas to consider resigning. The scandal places Kallas in a politically challenging situation, showcasing the complex balance between personal business dealings and political leadership amidst sensitive international dynamics. (“Turmoil hits Estonian Prime Minister Kallas over husband's Russia ties,” Euronews, 25 August 2023)

GREECE
Strategic ties with India 
On 25 August, during the visit of Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, to Greece, leaders of both countries committed to enhancing trade, defence, and strategic cooperation. The two countries will boost military ties, promote skilled migration, and aim to double bilateral trade by 2030. Aiming to establish direct flights, they also emphasized collaboration in sectors like tourism, pharmaceuticals, and technology. The visit marks a significant step in strengthening the relations between India and Greece after 40 years.The agreement reflects both countries' intent to expand their economic and strategic partnerships, tapping into each other’s strengths to foster growth and collaboration. (“India’s Modi visits Greece, the first visit to the country by an Indian prime minister in 40 years,” Associated Press, 25 August 2023)

FRANCE
Macron outlines wide-ranging goals for future
On 25 August, according to Euronews, Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, discussed a range of objectives in an interview, emphasizing geopolitical influence, immigration reform, climate action, and social issues. He stresses the need for a strong European stance on various fronts, including addressing the crisis in Ukraine and climate change. Macron’s approach to industry is to balance ecological goals with economic needs, advocating for domestic manufacturing and European investments. His push for immigration reform faces political challenges from both the left and right parties, highlighting the complexities of policy implementation in a diverse political landscape. (Gael Camba, “Macron eyes key immigration and economy reforms despite political challenges,” Euronews, 25 August 2023)

Sarkozy to face trial over Gadhafi funding allegations
On 25 August, France prosecutors reported that Nicolas Sarkozy, Former French President, to be tried in 2025 for allegedly accepting money from Moammar Gadhafi, Libyan leader, for his 2007 election campaign. Trial to include 12 co-defendants accused of conspiring to illegally finance the campaign. Charges include concealment of embezzlement, corruption, and illegal campaign financing. Sarkozy could face up to 10 years in jail if convicted. The case marks the most serious legal challenge Sarkozy has faced. (“France: Nicolas Sarkozy to face trial in 2025 over Libya,” Deutsche Welle, 25 August 2023)

SPAIN
Record-breaking cocaine seizure with disturbing labels in Spain
On 25 August, Spanish authorities seized a record-breaking 9.5 tonnes of cocaine hidden in banana boxes in a refrigerated container at the port of Algeciras. The shipment from Ecuador, labeled with swastikas and the word “Hitler,” is believed to belong to a major criminal organization involved in distributing cocaine to European networks. Over 30 European criminal organizations’ logos were detected on the packages. The seizure dealt an unprecedented blow to the criminal group, though no arrests have been made yet. The labels’ link to neo-Nazi groups or coded references is under investigation. This seizure highlights the significant reach of international criminal networks in drug trafficking and their use of symbolism for various purposes. (“Record cocaine haul hidden in Ecuadorean banana shipment intercepted in Spain,” Euronews, 25 August 2023)

REGIONAL
New EU Digital Services Act imposes rules on tech giants
On 25 August, according to the BBC, major tech platforms, including Facebook, TikTok, and Google, must comply with the EU Digital Services Act (DSA), which aims to protect users. Platforms with over 45 million EU users, like Alibaba, Amazon, and Twitter, face stringent rules to prevent illegal content, protect rights, and ensure public security. Breaches could result in fines up to six per cent of turnover and service suspension. DSA requires transparency in algorithms and sharing data with researchers. Some platforms have already implemented changes in line with DSA, impacting advertising and content visibility for younger users. The DSA reflects growing concerns over tech giants’ influence and their responsibility to safeguard users’ interests, setting a precedent for digital regulation worldwide. (Chris Vallance, “EU safety laws start to bite for TikTok, Instagram and others,” BBC, 25 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Dutch Supreme Court rejects lawsuit against Israeli officials over Gaza airstrike
On 25 August, the Dutch Supreme Court upheld a ruling that former Benny Gantz, Israeli Defence Minister, and Amir Eshel, ex-Air Force Commander, cannot be sued over a 2014 Gaza airstrike. Ismail Ziada, who lost family members in the attack, sought damages, is arguing that the Israelis’ actions constituted war crimes. The court’s decision stems from “functional immunity,” aligning with previous lower court verdicts. Ziada expressed disappointment and is considering an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. The case highlights the complex balance between pursuing justice and protecting officials acting on government policies. (Mike Corder, “Dutch Supreme Court confirms immunity of former Israeli officers over a deadly 2014 Gaza airstrike,” Associated Press, 25 August 2023)

US supports North Macedonia’s EU bid amid constitutional changes
On 25 August, Gabriel Escobar, a senior US State Department official, expressed optimism that North Macedonia will successfully navigate politically challenging constitutional changes required for its EU membership bid. North Macedonia is amending its constitution, including adding Bulgarians and other ethnic groups, to satisfy neighboring EU member Bulgaria. The process faces resistance from the main opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE. Escobar, while affirming US support for North Macedonia’s EU aspirations, hopes the amendment process continues. North Macedonia and Albania began EU membership negotiations in 2021, with Bulgaria’s concerns over ethnic representation complicating North Macedonia's accession. (“US official voices hope North Macedonia will be able to proceed with EU membership bid,” Associated Press, 25 August 2023)


25 August 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #604

War in Ukraine: Day 547

Ukraine celebrates its Independence Day; Wopke Hoekstra to be Netherlands next EU commissioner; Campaigners challenge EU over climate policy

Photo : zumapress.com


War in Ukraine: Day 547
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 24 August, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, congratulated Ukraine's Independence Day, acknowledging its resilient people. Celebrating the 32nd anniversary, he emphasizes the fight for independence, thanking soldiers, families, and supporters. He honored those lost and underscored the unity against adversity. 

On 24 August, according to Ukrinform, Ukraine's Defence Forces, led by Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Main Intelligence Directorate, planned to extend actions beyond strikes on occupied Crimea, including a ground operation. Budanov emphasized that these actions aim to instil hope and resilience among the population, with an assurance that Crimea’s liberation is on the horizon. He stressed that diplomacy alone lacks effectiveness without tangible force.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 24 August, according to TASS, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, reaffirmed Russia’s willingness to rejoin the grain deal with Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General, but only if all obligations to Russia are met. This was conveyed during their meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, cited unfulfilled promises by Western countries in the deal.

On 24 August, according to TASS, Putin conveyed condolences to the families of those killed in the crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Embraer jet. During a meeting with Denis Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Putin described the incident as a tragic event. The crash took the lives of individuals associated with the private military company Wagner.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 24 August, at the White House, Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor, hosted a meeting with national security advisors from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. On Ukraine’s Independence Day, they reiterated support against Russia’s aggression, discussed ways to hold Russia accountable, and emphasized keeping Russia's assets immobilized until reparations are paid.

On 24 August, according to the Government of Norway, Jonas Gahr Store, Norway’s Prime Minister, affirmed support for Ukraine’s modern air defence system development, including donating F-16 fighter jets. The donation will be coordinated with allies, reinforcing Ukraine’s military capabilities and ongoing cooperation. Bjorn Arild Gram, US Defence Minister, emphasizes Norway’s continued substantial military aid to Ukraine. Norway will also provide anti-aircraft missiles for Ukraine’s air defence system, IRIS-T, as part of ongoing support against Russian threats.

On 24 August, on Ukraine’s Independence Day, the US took new actions against entities and individuals linked to human rights violations since Russia’s invasion. The Department of State imposed sanctions on two entities and 11 individuals involved in transferring Ukraine’s children to camps promoting Russia’s indoctrination. Visa restrictions will be applied to three Russia-installed officials for abusing Ukraine’s minors in forced deportations. These actions demonstrated the US commitment to accountability for Russia’s abuses in Ukraine, in line with Executive Order 14024 and the Immigration and Nationality Act.

On 24 August, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President, welcomed the audience and the Ukraine’s Freedom Orchestra at a Berlin concert. The orchestra, composed of refugees and Ukraine’s European orchestra members, sends a musical message of peace and freedom. Steinmeier praised the initiative’s significance, highlighted by Olena Selenska’s patronage, and acknowledged musicians involved in fighting Russia’s invasion. He celebrated Ukraine’s Independence Day amid the ongoing conflict, expressing solidarity and admiration from Germany. Steinmeier affirmed support for Ukraine, including its path to the EU.

On 24 August, in an interview, Marcus Faber, a German Free Democratic Party lawmaker, stated that Putin’s presumed death is a short-term strength but a long-term weakness. Faber emphasized Putin’s ability to eliminate opponents within Russia and noted that the incident underscores that there can be no compromise with him. He highlighted that the Wagner Group’s infrastructure may persist under new leadership, maintaining its operations.

On 24 August, European leaders cautioned on Prigozhin’s end following a private jet crash. Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, warned against hasty conclusions and noted widespread suspicion of Kremlin involvement. Olivier Veran, French spokesperson, cited “reasonable doubts” about the crash, while the EU refrained from assumptions. Zelenskyy denied involvement and suggests Kremlin responsibility. 

The Global Fallouts
On 24 August, according to The Wall Street Journal, the impact of Prigozhin’s presumed death was significant in Africa, where Wagner’s involvement in autocratic regimes advanced the Kremlin’s influence and challenged the US. Since 2018, Wagner has extended to the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, and Mali, amassing a force of around 5,000, close to US troop levels. His death prompted inquiries and concerns about a smooth transition. Wagner expanded into mining and political consulting, boosting Prigozhin’s wealth and funding Kremlin’s activities. Putin assured continuity post-mutiny; now, the challenge is rebranding the organization after its founder’s authority.

References
Congratulations by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Independence Day of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 24 August 2023
Ukraine’s intel chief says ground operations to be expected in Crimea,” Ukrinform, 24 August 2023
Lavrov reiterates terms of Russia’s return to grain deal to UN Secretary General — MFA,” TASS, 24 August 2023
Putin expresses condolences to families of people killed in crash of Prigozhin’s jet,” TASS, 24 August 2023
Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Meeting with Quint National Security Advisors,” The White House, 24 August 2023
Norway plans to donate F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine,” Government of Norway, 24 August 2023
Norway to Send Missiles for Ukraine's Air Defenсe System IRIS-T,” European Pravda, 24 August 2023
Imposing Sanctions and Visa Restrictions on Individuals and Entities Russia to Promote Accountability for Forced Transfer and Deportation of Children During Russia’s Illegal War Against Ukraine,” US Department of State, 24 August 2023
Concert of the Ukrainian Freedom Orchestra,” Der Bundesprasident, 24 August 2023
'There can be no compromise with Putin,' German lawmaker says,” Deutsche Welle, 24 August 2023
Europe wary of 'quick conclusions' over Prigozhin plane crash,” Belga news agency, 24 August 2023
Joe Parkinson, “Prighozin’s Death Could Hit Wagner’s Operations in Africa,” The Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2023


In Brief
By Genesy Balasingam

FRANCE
Nîmes is a hotspot for drug violence
On 24 August, an 18-year-old man was shot dead in the southern French city of Nimes, days after a 10-year-old youngster was slain by gunfire in a drug-related attack. Both shootings occurred in the city’s Pissevin neighbourhood, which has been beset by drug violence. Gerald Darmanin, Interior Minister, spoke of a “tit-for-tat attack between drug dealers.” Yoda and DZ Mafia, two competing gangs, are claimed to be behind the majority of the shootings in northern regions of the Mediterranean port city, notably in high-rise buildings. Smaller regional cities such as Nimes are now becoming a hotspot for the drug war. (Paul Kirby, “Nîmes shootings: Two killings in three days in small French city,” BBC, 24 August 2023)

POLAND
Tusk is the dangerous threat to Poland’s security: says Prime Minister
On 24 August, according to Politico, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party put forth four questions to a referendum that will be held on the same day as the 15 October parliamentary election. It also stated that anyone in favor of accepting illegal migrants should vote for Poland’s opposition parties. The referendum questions are set to be approved on 24 August by the lower house of parliament, where PiS holds a narrow majority. The questions are designed to elicit public support. Under campaign finance laws, the referendum is also regarded independently from the election, allowing the ruling party to increase spending ahead of the vote. The PiS and the state-controlled media have been supporting the government and have claimed that if Donald Tusk, Former President of the European Council, regains power, he will jeopardize Poland’s national security and economic prosperity. Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister, stated that Tusk is the most dangerous threat to our security. Tusk has called for a boycott of the referendum wherein it will need voters refusing the referendum ballot while Morawiecki slammed Tusk’s boycott proposal as “undemocratic”. (Wojciech Kosc, “Poland’s ruling party throws the opposition a referendum curveball,” Politico, 24 August 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Wopke Hoekstra to be Netherlands next EU commissioner
On 24 August, the Netherlands is set to pick Wopke Hoekstra, Foreign Minister as its next European commissioner after the retirement of Frans Timmermans, climate czar. Hoekstra, whose cabinet is set to hold elections in November, would take over for Timmermans, who announced his return to national politics in July. The Commission announced that Maro Efovi will take up Timmermans’ duties as executive vice president, including control of the European Green Deal’s implementation in Europe. The European People’s Party has fought a political battle against Timmermans’ environmental agenda, organising a rebellion in the European Parliament against the Commission’s nature restoration bill, which narrowly failed to overturn the planned legislation. The candidacy of Hoekstra for any climate-related position would be contentious in Brussels. Dutch political operatives have mentioned liberal ex-finance minister Sigrid Kaag as a possible candidate for the position of commissioner. (Nicholas Vinocur, Jacopo Barigazzi, “The Netherlands set to name Wopke Hoekstra as EU commissioner,” Politico, 24 August 2023)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak alleged to have violated Parliament standards
On 24 August, an inquiry concluded that Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, had violated parliament’s standards guidelines by failing to properly declare his wife’s interest in a childcare concern that stood to gain from government policies. This investigation was initiated in April after receiving indications of a possible rule violation. Sunak was asked about a government childcare project that would provide incentive payments to anyone who signed up as new child-minders through one of six designated organizations. Akshata Murty, Sunak’s wife, an investor in Koru Kids, one of the organizations, was scheduled to gain from the government’s trial program. Sunak, however, did not disclose his interest to the committee. During the investigation, Daniel Greenberg, UK’s Parliamentary Commissioner discovered that Sunak’s omission to declare his wife’s ties constituted a violation of the regulations governing MPs’ conduct. However, he concluded that the failure was caused by “confusion’” between the registration of interests and the statement of interests. Greenberg stated that the breach would be remedied by “rectification” processes, which typically entails MPs apologizing and addressing the breach. (Claudia Chiappa, “Rishi Sunak broke rules by failing to properly declare wife’s shares in a childcare firm,” Politico, 24 August 2023)

REGIONAL
EU’s climate aspirations off track with Paris Agreement’s climate targets
On 24 August, Euronews reported that according to CAN Europe and the Global Legal Action Network (GLAN), the European Commission’s annual emission allowances (AEAs) for EU member states are unambitious and violate EU environmental law. The non-governmental organizations have requested an internal review of a European Commission Implementing Decision which establishes annual emission permits for each EU member state in sectors such as road transport, buildings, agriculture, waste, and small industries. They claim that the allowances, as well as the EU’s overall climate aspirations, are “alarmingly off-track” with the Paris Agreement’s climate targets and fail to respect fundamental human rights. The Commission informed Euronews that it will evaluate the two NGOs’ request for an internal review, but denied that the Implementing Decision violates fundamental rights. However, CAN Europe and GLAN argue that falling climate aspirations jeopardize basic rights. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “NGOs demand review of 'insufficient' EU emission reduction targets,” Euronews, 24 August 2023)

Campaigners challenge EU over climate policy
On 24 August, environmentalists took the first step in suing the European Commission over a program to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, claiming it falls short of Europe’s “fair share” in combating climate change. Climate Action Network Europe and the non-profit Global Legal Action Network have formally requested that Brussels alter a legislation dictating how quickly EU countries must reduce emissions in areas including agriculture and transportation. The EU aims at reducing the bloc’s net emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. That is one of the most aggressive climate goals of any big economy, but environmentalists want it raised to 65 per cent. The Commission has 16 weeks to respond to the request, following which the organisations are eligible to file a legal challenge with the EU’s highest court. (Kate Abnett, “Campaigners threaten EU with legal action over climate policy,” Reuters, 24 August 2023) 

ECB in a dilemma over interest rate hikes
On 24 August, Euronews reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) is at a crossroads to determine whether to continue its cycle of interest rate hikes in September, as eurozone businesses face steep losses in output and new orders. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed that the EU’s business activity had reached its lowest level since 2020, owing to a severe drop in the services sector and a sustained decline in manufacturing. Germany, the world’s economic powerhouse, has been hurt the worst. The ECB has consistently stated that interest rates will continue to climb until inflationary pressures on consumer prices subside, but economists believe that slow economic growth may divide the Governing Council. Some ECB governors are concerned that further tightening of monetary policy could push the eurozone into recession next year. The impact on businesses demonstrates that the ECB has been overly tolerant of the detrimental impact of its own rate hikes on the economy. Other experts feel the ECB’s data-based strategy is problematic since there is a time lag between adopting monetary policy and seeing its influence on economic data. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “Explained: The ECB’s rate-hike dilemma as eurozone business activity falls,” Euronews,  24 August 2023)


24 August 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #603

Prigozhin killed in a plane crash I The Rise and Fall of Prigozhin | War in Ukraine: Day 546

Equinor launches the world's biggest floating wind farm; Germany's proposes plan to boost integration and skilled workforce

Photo : svidomi.in.ua


In Focus
By Rishika Yadav

Prigozhin killed in a plane crash
On 23 August, according to TASS, Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport initiated an investigation into the crash of an Embraer plane in the Tver Region. The plane, en route from Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow, to St Petersburg, crashed with all ten people on board reported dead. The passenger list, according to reports available in the media, included the names of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group leader, and Dmitri Utkin, Wagner’s top commander.

Until now, there are no comments from Vladmir Putin, Russia’s President.
 
RIA Novosti, the state-run Russia’s news agency, uploaded an unverified video capturing what seemed like an uncontrolled descent of an aircraft, plummeting almost vertically with a trail of light gray smoke. The footage, taken shakily from a mobile phone, omitted the plane’s actual impact. Another video shared on Telegram displayed a burning aircraft identified as an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet. Notably, the paint and partial registration number, RA-02795, aligned with a jet linked to Prigozhin. Rescue teams reached the crash scene, revealing airplane fragments, including a portion of a blue wing or tail fin.

Earlier this week, Prigozhin emerged in a video claiming to be in Africa, where his mercenaries relocated after the failed uprising. Speculations about Putin’s involvement linger following the crash. Prigozhin’s demise will heighten tensions in the Russian army. The jet crash coincided with Gen Sergei Surovikin's removal from leading the Russian aerospace forces, marking the highest-level dismissal post Prigozhin's mutiny. Questions arise about Prigozhin's support for Surovikin linking to the mutiny. Amid shock over the crash, Russian circles previously hinted at Putin's likely response to Prigozhin's betrayal.
 
Prigozhin’s end: Who said what?
On 23 August, Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport said: “An investigation of the Embraer plane crash that happened in the Tver Region this evening was initiated. According to the passenger list, first and last name of Yevgency Prigozhin was included in this list.”
 
On 23 August, Sergei Markov, a popular blogger and former advisor to the Kremlin, said: “We should be killing our enemies, not our own. All our enemies are celebrating… The death of Prigozhin is Ukraine’s biggest achievement this year.”
 
On 23 August, The Russian Ministry of Emergency Services wrote on its Telegram account: “In the Tver region, near the village of Kuzhenkino, a private Embraer Legacy aircraft crashed while flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg. There were 10 people on board, including 3 crew members.”
 
On 23 August, Adrienne Watson, US National Security Council spokesperson, while briefing Joe Biden, US President, said: “We have seen the reports. If confirmed, Prigozhin’s death should come as no surprise. The disastrous war in Ukraine led to a private army marching on Moscow, and now-it would seem-to this.”

On 23 August, Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, also commented: “The fact that Prigozhin made a direct challenge to Putin’s authority, the fact that he questioned publicly the very premises that Putin has advanced for the aggression against Ukraine – that’s playing out and will continue to play out.”

On 24 August, The New York Times reported: “Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian Wagner mercenary group that staged a short-lived mutiny against the military top brass in June, was listed on the passenger manifest of a private plane that crashed outside Moscow on Wednesday, killing all 10 people on board. The Russian authorities have not confirmed his death.”


From the Europe Monitor Archives
A profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin

By Sneha Surendran

Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, 62, walked away seemingly unharmed after he led a short-lived rebellion on Russian soil. Prigozhin’s name has occasionally cropped up in the international arena, but on 23 June he grabbed the world’s attention when he ordered the troops of his private military force, Wagner, to march to Moscow. Beyond his persona as the leader of the Wagner group, Prigozhin is a man who has worn multiple hats.
 
It all began in St Petersburg
Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin is a native of St. Petersburg, Russia, the same as Vladimir Putin. His mother was a hospital nurse while his father, a mining engineer, died when Prigozhin was nine. His stepfather, a ski instructor, sparked an interest in crosscountry skiing in the young boy. Prigozhin joined and graduated from the Leningrad Sports Boarding School in 1977. However, an injury put an end to his sports dreams. Prigozhin’s entry into the world of crime began early when at the age of 18, he was first sentenced to prison for theft.
 
Although the jail term was suspended, in a couple of years he received a 13-year jail term for robbery and theft. Prigozhin spent the next nine years in prison. Following his release in 1990, he set up a stable hot dog stall business with his family. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Prigozhin began looking for opportunities in the entrepreneurial and business sectors. By 1995, he was able to establish himself in the food catering industry, opening restaurants and food catering companies under his major enterprise, Concord Catering. This was to become his first steps to the corridors of power.
 
As business flourished, Prigozhin began interacting with the elite class of Russian society. Concord Catering started to get good reviews from its customers, leading to even the military calling for its services. A businessman who knew Prigozhin at the time, remarked: “He can adapt to please any person if he needs something from them. That is definitely one of his talents.”
 
And then came to Moscow as Putin’s Chef
While Prigozhin was raising his business empire, Vladimir Putin had been climbing the political ladder. Once Putin became President, Prigozhin’s catering business flourished with contracts from the Kremlin and the military. One of Putin’s favoured spots for dining was Prigozhin’s boat restaurant named ‘Novyi Ostrov’ or New Island in the Neva River that runs alongside St. Petersburg. Here, he hosted his foreign guests as well as had personal celebrations. Through these events, Prigozhin’s ties to Putin began strengthening. Prigozhin once remarked: “Vladimir Putin…saw that I had no problem serving plates to dignitaries in person.” This is corroborated by the many photographs available that depict Putin sharing a meal with dignitaries like the former US President George Bush, with Prigozhin in the background.
 
“Prigozhin has had a tough relationship with the Russian military leaders. However, these connections soured during the time he spent leading Wagner in the Ukraine invasion….”
 
Grows further but in the shadows to build the Wagner empire across continents. Over time, Prigozhin’s companies began earning billions of dollars’ worth of catering contracts from schools and colleges in Moscow, facilitated by his political connections. In fact, since 2013, 90 percent of catering contracts from the Russian defence ministry have been in the hands of Prigozhin’s network. Eventually, Prigozhin came to be known as “Putin’s chef.” At the same time, Putin too would benefit politically from his relationship with the businessman as there was more to Prigozhin than just being “Putin’s chef.”
 
This began with the origins of Wagner, a private military company that first came on the international radar in 2014. Russia had invaded and annexed Crimea, while Russian-backed separatists were creating unrest in eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk cities. At the time, there were reports of uniformed soldiers dubbed as “little green men” in the regions of tension. Wearing masks, carrying weapons, and donning green uniforms but without the Russian insignia, it was speculated that some of these men belonged to the little-known Wagner group. Although the group is thought to be the brainchild of Dmitry Utkin, a veteran military officer and Nazi propagandist, evidence to verify the true extent of his connection to Wagner is scarce. The EU considers Utkin as the founder of Wagner, responsible for “coordinating and planning operations for the deployment.” Meanwhile, Prigozhin has been the face of Wagner before the world.
 
Prigozhin has been the face of Wagner before the world. While Prigozhin and the Wagner group operated in the shadows for a long time, they came into the spotlight to support Russia’s military in the Ukraine invasion. However, for a long time, Prigozhin staunchly refused any ties with the mercenary group. In fact, he even sued journalists who implied the opposite. The Russian state, too denied any connection to Wagner. In 2022, Wagner registered in Russia as a joint stock company named ‘PMC Wagner Centre.’ Finally, in September 2022, Prigozhin admitted to creating Wagner, saying that he previously denied it to protect the group, stating: “I cleaned the old weapons myself…found specialists who could help me with this…on 1 May 2014, a group of patriots was born…called the Wagner Battalion.” Prigozhin reportedly recruited Wagner troops from Russian prisons, promising them freedom if they lasted for six months. These recruits were often people with military experience or a history of violence. To bring them into Wagner’s fold, Prigozhin is said to have cited his own prison experiences with the criminals.
 
Apart from the military sector, Prigozhin also operated in the cyber space on behalf of the state. In November 2022, Prigozhin admitted to meddling in the US’s 2016 Presidential elections. In a post made through the press service of Concord Catering, he stated: "We have interfered (in U.S. elections), we are interfering, and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically, and in our own way, as we know how to do." Furthermore, in February 2023, he revealed his connections to the company Washington had accused of interfering in the 2016 US elections, Internet Research Agency. Washington had described it as a “troll farm” for spreading disinformation online. Prigozhin revealed: “I thought it up, I created it, I managed it for a long time." He said that the organization aimed to “protect the Russian information space from the West's boorish and aggressive anti-Russian propaganda.”
 
But the trouble starts with Russia's military leaders, and ends in a revolt
Prigozhin has had a tough relationship with the Russian military leaders. However, these connections soured during the time he spent leading Wagner in the Ukraine invasion, especially during the battle of Bakhmut. He repeatedly spoke out against the competence of the military leaders, alleging that they refused to supply his troops with ammunition, calling it a deliberate move to undermine Wagner. He went so far as to imply that the leaders were committing treason. In one of his online rants, he stated: “The shells are lying in warehouses, they are resting there…There are people who fight, and there are people who have learned once in their lives that there must be a reserve, and they save, save, save those reserves…Instead of spending a shell to kill the enemy, they kill our soldiers. And happy grandfather thinks this is okay.” When netizens connected the “grandfather” comment to Putin, Prigozhin was quick to deny it. During his participation in the Ukraine war, he extensively made use of social media to post updates regarding the victories of Wagner and criticism of the military.
 
So, what next for Prigozhin?
The tension between Prigozhin and the military leaders finally culminated in the Wagner rebellion on 23 June. Prigozhin’s troops captured Rostov-on-Don, a military base and began marching towards Moscow. While Putin denounced the rebellion as treason, Prigozhin stated that the revolt was not against Putin, but rather the defence leadership whom he accused of firing a missile at his troops. The revolt ended when Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s President negotiated a truce according to which, all charges against Prigozhin were dropped by the state and he was allowed refuge in Belarus. The latest reports locate Prigozhin in Belarus, where he was recently shown welcoming Wagner troops. In a video message, he said that they would no longer be involved in the Ukraine invasion, rather focussing on Africa.
 
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s narrative is complicated. He has owned restaurants, media companies and a private military force, and indulged in selling hot dogs and even writing a children’s storybook. He is wanted by multiple agencies for charges ranging from corruption, human rights violations, and war crimes. Furthermore, Russia is working to erase Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man who undermined their authority, from the public memory while taking over his business enterprises.


War in Ukraine: Day 546
The Third Crimean Summit and the Killing of Prigozhin 
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 23 August, leaders from around the world convened virtually for the Third Crimean Platform Summit. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President delivered a passionate address reaffirming the nation's commitment to reclaim Crimea from its isolation. Representatives from 63 countries and international bodies united to collectively denounce the occupation and forge agreements aimed at ending the ongoing aggression. The core mission of the Crimean Platform emerged as a resolute call for de-occupation and foster international collaboration. Central to this vision was ecological restoration and modernization, with the President asserting Ukraine’s commitment to preserving nature, promoting tourism, and establishing modern institutions to rejuvenate Crimea.
 
On 23 August, according to Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, explosions took place in occupied Crimea near Olenivka village on Cape Tarkhankut, resulting in the destruction of a Russian S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile system. The blast annihilated the system, loaded missiles, and personnel, delivering a substantial blow to Russia’s air defence capabilities due to the system’s limited availability.
 
On 23 August, Ukraine reported that Russia's attacks had decimated 270,000 tonnes of grain, damaging export infrastructure. Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister, revealed the systematic targeting of grain tanks and warehouses, with recent attacks diminishing port capacities.
 
On 23 August, an Iranian-made Shahed-type drone, targeted a school in Romny, Sumy Oblast. The assault claimed four lives
 
On 23 August, according to Ukrinform, Ukraine’s defence forces intercepted Russia’s military aircraft over the Black Sea, near Zmiinyi Island. The aircraft attempted an attack on Ukraine’s vessels;  Ukraine’s combat boat fired a missile, damaging the Russia’s plane, which had to retreat.
 
On 23 August, Oleh Kiper, Governor of Odesa Oblast, reported that overnight, Russia conducted a drone attack on Odesa Oblast, damaging a Danube grain storage facility. Although no casualties occurred, a grain warehouse suffered partial burning. The Ukraine’s Air Force noted that Russia deployed 20 Shahed attack drones at night, with 11 destroyed over Odesa and two over Zaporizhzhia.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 23 August, according to TASS, Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport initiated an investigation into the Embraer plane crash in Tver Region. Notably, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group leader, was among the passengers. The crash occurred near Kuzhenkino, claiming all 10 lives on board the business jet flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

On 23 August, according to The New York Times, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, continued to blame western countries for the Ukraine conflict during a comprehensive video speech at the BRICS summit, aiming to rally member countries. He confirmed Russia’s upcoming BRICS chairmanship and a 2024 summit in Kazan. Russia’s 18 month invasion of Ukraine was portrayed as a defensive response to a hostile government and western antagonism. Despite being sought for war crimes, Putin was the only absent BRICS leader due to ICC obligations. The summit focused on expanding the bloc and countering western influence, while heightened China and US tensions and the war in Ukraine drew attention.

On 23 August, according to The Moscow Times, Putin removed General Sergei Surovikin from his position as head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces following a failed mutiny by Prigozhin. Surovikin had been seen urging Wagner fighters to halt their march towards Moscow to overthrow military leadership. His whereabouts after the incident remain unknown, and reports of his arrest have not been officially confirmed. Viktor Afzalov, Colonel General, will temporarily assume the position. Surovikin, a key intermediary between Wagner and the Defence Ministry, has been reassigned elsewhere and is reportedly on vacation. The Kremlin has not commented on the situation.

On 23 August, according to The Moscow Times, Vyacheslav Gladkov, Governor of Belgorod confirmed that a Ukraine’s drone strike killed three people in Russia’s border region of Belgorod. The attack used an explosive device launched through a drone while civilians were on the street. The victims included refugees from occupied Ukraine’s areas and a resort employee. The incident marked the second drone strike on the village within 12 hours. Over the past 24 hours, 12 other towns and villages in the Belgorod region faced drone and artillery strikes. The responsibility has not been confirmed by Kyiv.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 23 August, in an interview with Deutsche Welle, Margus Tsakhna, Estonia’s foreign minister, supported Ukraine’s right to defend itself and conduct attacks in Russian territory in response to recent strikes blamed on Ukraine. Ahead of Ukraine’s independence day, Tsakhna emphasized sustained support for Ukraine rather than seeking peace at any cost, citing Russia’s rule-breaking behaviour since its 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.
 
On 22 August, Kajsa Ollongren, Dutch Defence Minister, announced in Kyiv that the Netherlands will supply Ukraine with portable charges for remote demining. Ollongren assured continued support, including air defence equipment, crucial for defence against Russia’s invasion. The statement was made during her meeting with Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, and her participation in the VI International Veterans Forum.

References
Russia caused the isolation of Crimea, we will return the whole world for Crimea - the President's speech at the third summit of the Crimean Platform,” president.gov.ua, 23 August 2023
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence confirms explosions in Crimea and destruction of S-400 missile system along with crew,” Ukrainska Pravda, 23 August 2023
Russia destroyed 270,000 tonnes of grain in month: Kyiv,” Zawya, 23 August 2023
Sofiya Tryzub-Cook, “Russian strike on school in Sumy Oblast kills 4, injures 4,” The Kyiv Independent, 23 August 2023
Defense Forces Strike at Russian Aircraft in Black Sea - DIU,” Ukrinform, 23 August 2023
 Elsa Court, “Russia launches 20 drones overnight, strikes Odesa grain storage,” The Kyiv Independent, 23 August 2023
Prigozhin listed as passenger of plane crashed in Russia’s Tver region — aviation agency,” TASS, 23 August 2023
Enjoli Liston and Matthew Mpoke Bigg, “In Speech to BRICS Nations, Putin Again Blames West for Ukraine War,” The New York Times, 23 August 2023
Putin Sacks Aerospace Forces General – State Media,” The Moscow Times, 23 August 2023
3 Killed in Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Border Region – Governor,” The Moscow Times, 23 August 2023
Estonian foreign minister defends Ukrainian attacks in Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 23 August 2023
Serge Havrylets, “The Netherlands to provide Ukraine with demining equipment,” Euromaidan, 22 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

BELARUS
Prominent human rights group labelled as extremist
On 23 August, Belarus labelled Viasna, the country’s oldest and most prominent human rights group, as an extremist organization. Founded by Ales Bialiatski, Nobel laureate, Viasna has been at the forefront of documenting human rights abuses in the country. This move is part of a wider crackdown on dissent following the disputed 2020 presidential election that saw Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s President, secure another term. Thousands were arrested, NGOs were shut down, and independent media outlets outlawed. Viasna’s designation further escalates pressure on dissenters, with authorities threatening criminal charges for anyone involved with the group. The move reflects the ongoing suppression of opposition voices in Belarus. The labelling of Viasna as extremist underscores Belarus’s sustained efforts to silence human rights advocates and curtail dissent, drawing international condemnation for stifling civil liberties. (Yuras Karmanau, “Belarus outlaws prominent rights group Viasna, declaring it extremist,” Associated Press, 23 August 2023)
 
GERMANY
Legislation to boost integration and skilled workforce
On 23 August, according to the Associated Press, Germany’s Cabinet approved legislation aimed at easing citizenship rules to enhance immigrant integration and address the skilled labour shortage. The bill, backed by Olaf Scholz, Germany’s Chancellor, proposes reducing the waiting period for citizenship eligibility from eight to five years, with exceptions for special integration achievements. Additionally, German born children would become citizens if one parent has resided legally for five years, down from eight. Restrictions on dual citizenship will also be lifted. Nancy Faeser, Germany’s Interior Minister emphasized the importance of attracting skilled workers and creating a diverse society. However, the centre-right opposition Union bloc argues that the changes could have negative implications and compromise integration efforts. Germany’s move reflects a balance between facilitating integration and addressing labour needs, while also sparking debates about the pace and nature of citizenship for immigrants. (Geir Moulson, “Germany is moving forward with a plan to ease its citizenship rules as it seeks to attract workers,” Associated Press, 23 August 2023)
 
GREECE
Wildfires threatens Greece; investigation into racist violence launches
On 23 August, according to the BBC, deadly fires continued to rage near Athens and the Evros region, with at least 20 lives lost. Eighteen victims are believed to be migrants who recently crossed the border, heightening concerns about their safety. Greece mourned the deaths near the Turkish border as firefighters battle fierce winds and scorching temperatures. The fires prompted suspicions of migrants causing blazes, while authorities investigate racist violence against migrants following the deaths. Greece’s wildfire emergency highlights the vulnerabilities faced by migrants amid climate-related disasters and xenophobia. (Orla Guerin, Kostas Koukoumakas & Feras Kawaf, “Greek fires rage after migrant tragedy near border,” BBC, 23 August 2023)
 
KOSOVO
Statue in Pristina honouring Kosovo Albanians who rescued Jews
On 23 August, a “Wall of Honor” statue commemorating 23 Kosovo Albanians who saved Jews during World War Two was unveiled in Pristina, attended by descendants of the rescuers, political leaders, and US and German ambassadors. In a region where many Jews perished, Albanians helped Jews escape Nazi persecution, often taking them to Albania. Arslan Rezniqi, a rescuer, was the first Kosovar included in Yad Vashem’s “Righteous Among the Nations” list. Kosovo and Israel established diplomatic ties in 2020, and Kosovo became the first European country with a Muslim majority to open its embassy in Jerusalem in 2021. This event highlights the remarkable humanitarian efforts of Albanians during World War Two and showcases the unique bond between Kosovo and Israel, setting an example of cross-cultural unity and recognition. (Sylejman Kllokoqi and Llazar Semini, “Kosovo inaugurates ‘Wall of Honor’ statue for 23 Albanians who rescued Jews during the Holocaust,” Associated Press, 23 August 2023)
 
NORWAY
World's largest floating wind farm
On 23 August, fossil fuel company Equinor launched the world's biggest floating wind farm, Hywind Tampen, generating 88 MW of energy for nearby oil and gas platforms. The project uses 11 floating turbines tied to the seafloor, aimed at reducing emissions from the carbon-intensive platforms. However, Greenpeace highlights Equinor's limited investment in renewables, with only 0.13 per cent of its total energy production coming from renewables in 2022. The company plans to increase installed renewables capacity to 12-16 GW by 2030, yet critics argue that the “dirty dozen” energy companies, including Equinor, need more substantial green efforts. Equinor's investment in renewables reflects a growing trend among fossil fuel companies to diversify, but critics remain sceptical about their commitment to combating climate change. (Lottie Limb, “Norway: World’s biggest floating wind farm will power oil and gas platforms,” Euronews, 23 August 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Federal Council orders Xplain data leak investigation
On 23 August, the Swiss Federal Council sanctioned an administrative investigation into the data breach incident at Xplain AG. The Federal Department of Finance (FDF) will appoint Geneva-based law firm OBERSON ABELS SA to probe the Federal Administration’s compliance with its duties in selecting, instructing, supervising, and collaborating with Xplain AG. The investigation aims to uncover circumstances that allowed Xplain AG access to Federal Administration data and propose preventive measures. The FDF will coordinate with the investigative body and aims to conclude the investigation by March 2024. The results will guide potential consequences. The breach, attributed to hacker group “Play,” exposed sensitive federal data on the darknet in June 2023. The investigation reflects the government’s commitment to cybersecurity and accountability, aiming to enhance data protection measures for government entities. (“Xplain hack: Federal Council approves investigation order,” admin.ch, 23 August 2023)

THE UK
Coastal defence upgrade in Humber Estuary to protect communities and infrastructure
On 23 August, according to the Government of UK, the Environment Agency’s initiative will enhance coastal defences over 4.5 kilometres along the Humber estuary’s south bank, safeguarding 2,300 properties, essential industry, and future development areas. This phase is part of the Stallingborough Sea Defence Improvement Scheme, which has strengthened sea walls in stages over 15 years. Large rock armour will be installed across three kilometres, while the remaining 1.5 kilometres of defences will be repaired. River outfalls will also be upgraded. The sustainable approach aims to minimize environmental impact and generate GBP 1.1 billion in economic benefits over 25 years. The initiative is a crucial component of Humber’s flood risk management strategy. It highlights the intersection of environmental resilience and economic development, illustrating a sustainable approach to protecting vulnerable coastal regions. (“Humber flood defences £29m upgrade begins at Stallingborough,” gov.uk, 23 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Senator Cruz questions FTC's collaboration with EU on tech regulation
On 23 August, according to Politico, Ted Cruz, US Republican Senator, expressed concerns about the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) collaboration with European counterparts on regulations targeting Big Tech companies, many of which are based in the US. In a letter to Lina Khan, FTC Chairperson, Cruz criticized the agency’s meetings with European Commission officials regarding the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Market Act (DMA), which he believes discriminate against US firms. The senator raised questions about the FTC’s officials sent to Europe and its San Francisco office’s interactions with EU counterparts. He also called for transparency on communication between the FTC and the Commission. Similar apprehensions were voiced by James Comer, Republican Representative, who requested FTC-Commission communications on DMA be shared with Congress. Senator Cruz’s concerns reflect the ongoing tension between US lawmakers and the EU over regulating American tech giants operating in Europe, highlighting broader debates on international cooperation in digital regulation. (Edith Hancock, “Senator Ted Cruz slams US agency for ‘collusion’ with EU on Big Tech rules,” Politico, 23 August 2023)


22 August 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #601

War in Ukraine: Day 544

Greece faces battling wildfires amid heatwaves; Onset of "New Social Contract" party in Netherlands; Finland's call to ban swastika and hammer and sickle

Photo : army.mil


War in Ukraine: Day 544
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 21 August, according to Ukrianska Pravda, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, announced Greece's participation in the aircraft coalition during talks with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece's Prime Minister. Greece will aid in training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, bolstering Ukraine's defence capabilities. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for Greece's support in safeguarding Ukraine's freedom. 

On 21 August, according to Greece's Prime Minister office, Zelenskyy arrived in Athens for an official visit. Zelenskyy emphasized joint efforts to protect freedom in Europe. This concludes his European visits after Sweden, Netherlands, and Denmark. Mitsotakis met Balkan leaders, hosting a commemorative dinner attended by Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President and Charles Michel, European Council chief. The gathering celebrated 20 years since a pivotal Thessaloniki summit. Greece's stance shifted under Mitsotakis, unequivocally condemning Moscow's invasion. Greece offered to reconstruct the Mariupol maternity hospital in Ukraine. Zelenskyy's parliamentary appeal for Mariupol and Odesa aid gained Greek support, except from Communist Party of Greece (KKE) and National Party-Greek. 

On 21 August, in an interview with BBC, Zelenskyy assessed the June offensive, emphasizing the importance of steady progress. He urged NATO to clarify Ukraine's membership prospects, tying its post-war direction to this. Insisting on no talks until Russian troop withdrawal, Zelenskyy downplayed the nuclear threat from Putin. Despite possible Vilnius summit absence, he saw the NATO invitation as a foundation for Ukraine's future. Zelenskyy rejected talks until full territorial restoration, rejecting frozen conflict prospects, calling them a trap. Dismissing Putin's nuclear threat, he surmised the Russian leader's concern for personal safety.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 August, according to TASS, around 50 flights experienced delays at Moscow airports due to temporary flight restrictions due to two drone attacks by Ukraine. Sheremetyevo had 14 delays, Domodedovo 13, Vnukovo 20, and Zhukovsky 3. Amid the delays, 50 planes were diverted to other airports. The Russian Defence Ministry reported repelling two drone attacks in the Moscow region, one suppressed by electronic warfare and another shot down.

On 21 August, according to Zawya, Russia's envoy to Denmark criticized the country's decision to supply Ukraine with American F-16 jets as an "escalation" of the conflict. The Russian ambassador expressed concern that the move heightened the conflict and pushed Ukraine into a continued military confrontation. Moscow has previously labelled F-16s a potential "nuclear" threat. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 21 August, according to Reuters, the US State Department greenlit a potential USD 12 billion deal for Poland to acquire 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters, along with related equipment like 1,844 Hellfire missiles and 508 Stinger missiles. The request comes amid Poland's efforts to bolster its military post-Russia's Ukraine invasion. While approved, the notification to Congress does not confirm the contract signing. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are the main contractors for the deal.

On 21 August, according to the UK's Ministry of Defence, Russia formed the 18th Combined Arms Army (18 CAA) to bolster military efforts in southern Ukraine. This likely involves reorganizing units in Kherson Oblast, including the 22nd Army Corps stationed in Crimea. Primarily composed of mobilized personnel, the 18 CAA is expected to focus on defensive operations, possibly freeing experienced units for critical fronts. Notably, airborne forces have been moved from Kherson to the contested Orikhiv sector.

References
"Greece to train Ukrainian troops on F-16," Ukrianska Pravda, 21 August 2023
"Zelensky In Athens To Meet EU, Balkan Leaders: Greek Officials," Barron's, 21 August 2023
"Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with the BBC: "We will not agree to a frozen conflict"," BBC, 21 August 2023
"About 50 flights delayed at Moscow airports," TASS, 21 August 2023
"Statement by Russian Defence Ministry," Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 21 August 2023
"Danish F-16s for Ukraine an 'escalation': Russian envoy," Zawya, 21 August 2023
"US State Dept OKs possible sale of Apache helicopters to Poland for $12 bln -Pentagon," Reuters, 21 August 2023
"Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 21 August 2023," Twitter, 21 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FINLAND
Calls to ban swastika and hammer and sickle
On 21 August, according to Politico, amidst a series of racism scandals, Ben Zyskowicz, Finland's MP, proposed a ban on swastikas and hammer and sickle symbols, part of a broader effort to combat discrimination and racism. The working group's proposals, formed in response to scandals involving the Finns Party, seek concrete actions against racism. Petteri Orpo, Finland's Prime Minister, asserts "zero tolerance" for racism, and the parliament is set to vote on the proposal in September. The proposed ban on symbols associated with hate and extremism reflects efforts to address deep-rooted racism and intolerance, demonstrating the government's commitment to upholding fundamental principles of equality and countering the rise of discriminatory ideologies. (Laura Hulsemann, "Finland considers swastika ban after racism scandals rock government," Politico, 21 August 2023)
 
FRANCE
Extreme heat warnings as temperatures soar
On 21 August, France issued "red alerts" in southern regions due to scorching temperatures, with Rhone expected to reach 41 degree Celsius. Meteo France also issued "orange alerts" for half the country, as temperatures climbed to 35-38 degree Celsius. Europe has faced record-breaking heatwaves this summer, with Southern Europe experiencing high temperatures and deadly wildfires. Scientists highlight the link between human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and intensifying heatwaves. ("France issues' red alert' warning amid extreme heat," Deutsche Welle, 21 August 2023)
 
GERMANY
Economy to remain stagnant in Q3 
On 21 August, according to the Associated Press, Germany, as Europe's largest economy, is predicted, by IMF, to stay stagnant in the current quarter, as the central bank forecasts minimal change in economic output. The country's GDP remained flat in Q2 and has faced consecutive declines in previous quarters due to energy prices, borrowing costs, and weakened Chinese trade. This trend aligns with the IMF's projection that Germany is the only major economy to shrink this year, amidst global economic challenges. The continued stagnation in Germany's economy reflects the broader challenges faced by many countries in maintaining steady growth amidst a complex global economic landscape. ("German central bank sees the economy stagnating again in the 3rd quarter," Associated Press, 21 August 2023)
 
GREECE
Patrol boats rescue migrants crossing from Turkey
On 21 August, Greek patrol boats saved around 80 migrants in two separate incidents as they attempted to cross from Turkey in inflatable dinghies. Over the weekend, 200 more were rescued, reflecting an increasing trend of dangerous journeys. Migrant arrivals in Greece have surpassed 14,000 this year, attributed to better summer weather and increased Aegean boat traffic. The government maintains control despite the rise. Greece has bolstered patrols since the 2015 migration crisis, and allegations of illegal deportations persist. The ongoing challenges of irregular migration routes across the Aegean Sea highlight the need for coordinated efforts among European nations to address the humanitarian and security concerns associated with such journeys. ("Greek coast guard rescues scores of migrants from boats drifting in the Aegean Sea," Associated Press, 21 August 2023)
 
Battling wildfires amid heatwave
On 21 August, according to Deutsche Welle, Wildfires erupted in Greece amid scorching temperatures. Evacuations occur in villages near Athens, while a major fire rages near Alexandroupolis. The persistent occurrence of wildfires in the region highlights the urgent need for effective wildfire management strategies and global efforts to address climate change's impact on fire risk. ("Villages evacuated in Greece as wildfires rage," Deutsche Welle, 21 August 2023)
 
SPAIN
King of Spain initiates government formation consultations
On 21 August, Felipe VI, Spain's King, began consultations with political parties to form a new government. Parties include People's Party (PP) and ruling Socialist Party (PSOE). Neither leader has enough support for a coalition, but PSOE's potential partners provide an advantage. PSOE seeks support from Catalan separatist parties, while PP requires smaller regional parties' backing. If no government is formed, year end general election might be necessary. The consultations reflect Spain's political intricacies, with PSOE holding potential coalition-building advantages over PP due to its broader support base. The inclusion of Catalan separatist parties' potential backing adds a layer of complexity, highlighting the delicate balance of regional and national interests in Spanish politics. ("Spain's king begins meeting parties to form new government," Deutsche Welle, 21 August 2023)
 
Wildfire rages in Canary Islands
On 21 August, a deliberately started wildfire in the Canary Islands prompted a visit from Pedro Sánchez, Spain's acting Prime Minister. The blaze has scorched 11,600 hectares, forcing 12,000 to evacuate. Despite firefighter progress, the situation remains challenging due to difficult terrain. The islands have faced drought due to climate change, exacerbating fire risks. Though no injuries were reported, the fire is a major concern for local communities and authorities. Arson investigation is ongoing. The ecological and human toll underscores the urgent need for preventive measures and stricter penalties against such intentional acts. ("Wildfires ravage 6% of Canary Islands, as crews tackle blazes in Greece, Italy," Euronews, 21 August 2023)
 
THE NETHERLANDS
Pieter Omtzigt launches a new party ahead of elections
On 21 August, according to Politico, Pieter Omtzigt, longtime Dutch Christian Democratic appeal member, established the "New Social Contract" party for November's election, aiming to implement good governance and livelihood security proposals. Omtzigt's popularity poses a challenge to various parties, including Labour Party and GreenLeft, as indicated by polls estimating him winning up to 29 per cent of votes. Omtzigt, known for uncovering the child benefits scandal, seeks meaningful change over merely seeking the largest party position. Upcoming elections follow the collapse of Prime Minister Mark Rutte's coalition in July, fostering a competitive landscape influenced by issues like migration and climate policy. The emergence of Pieter Omtzigt's new party adds complexity to the Dutch political landscape, particularly given his track record in uncovering significant scandals and his ability to resonate with a sizable portion of the electorate. (Claudia Chiappa, "Popular Dutch politician shakes up November election with new party," Politico, 21 August 2023)
 
THE UK
London police close investigation into allegations involving Prince Charles' charity
On 21 August, London police ended a probe into claims that associates of Prince Charles offered Saudi billionaire knighthood for donations. Metropolitan Police find no evidence to take further action after reviewing documents from The Prince's Foundation and The Times of London's report. The foundation states it's focusing on its education and training programs. The conclusion of the investigation underscores the challenges of navigating potential ethical concerns and maintaining transparency within charitable organizations connected to high-profile individuals. ("UK police to take no action after investigation into cash-for-honors allegation at king's charity," Associated Press, 21 August 2023)


21 August 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #600

War in Ukraine: Days 542 & 543

Russia’s space agency Roscosmos reports the crash of Luna-25; Wildfires spark in Spain's Canary Islands’; Heatwaves across the southeast of France

Photo : Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzou Scanpix / AP


War in Ukraine: Days 542 & 543
By Sreeja JS

War on Ground
On 20 August, according to Ukrinform, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, announced on Telegram that Ukraine and Netherlands reached a consensus on the transfer of F-16 jets. Government of Denmark would donate F-16 jets together with the Netherlands. Earlier, it has been agreed that F-16 jets would be transferred to Ukraine subject to certain conditions, in close cooperation with the US and other partners. Conditions include (but are not limited to) successfully selected, tested, and trained F-16 personnel in Ukraine, authorizations, infrastructure and logistics. At present, the Netherlands have 42 F-16 jets for training Ukraine’s personnel in Denmark and Romania.
 
On 19 and 20 August, Zelenskyy visited Sweden for the first time since Russia’s invasion. He met Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s Prime Minister and discussed the preparation of the 13th military aid package to Ukraine, which would include the joint production of Swedish CV90 light tanks.
 
On 20 August, Ukrinform reported that the number of civilians injured due to Russia’s missile attack in Chernihiv had increased to 156. According to Oleksiy Kuleba, Deputy Head of the President’s Office, 66 residential buildings, ten administrative buildings and 67 vehicles have been damaged and the rescue operation has been completed.
 
On 19 August, Russia launched a missile attack on Chernihiv that killed seven people. Chernihiv, situated around 90 miles north of Kyiv towards Belarus was largely spared from major attacks since the beginning of the invasion. Further, the report said that the attack followed Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President’s visit to Rostov-on-Don at the headquarters of the special military operation group after Kyiv claimed some success last week on the battlefield and a day after the US approved the transfer of F-16 jets from Denmark and the Netherlands.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 20 August, RT reported that Russia’s air defences shot down around three drones over the southwestern Belgorod Region. According to the Defence Ministry, the drones were downed in an unpopulated area avoiding casualties and damage to the ground. On the same day, another drone headed towards Moscow was downed. According to the Ministry, the drone was detected over the Stupino district and was suppressed through an electronic warfare system, causing no casualties or damage.

According to RT, the border regions of Russia such as Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod are being reportedly attacked via drones and artillery shelling in the past couple of months while drone attacks have increased in Moscow.
 
On 19 August, according to Russia’s Defence Ministry, a military air base in Western Russia was attacked via an explosives-laden drone. The attack was thwarted but one aircraft was damaged.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 20 August, Financial Times reported that US officials are becoming highly critical of the success chances of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, deepening the relations between Kyiv and Washington at a critical juncture since the beginning of the invasion. According to the report, at this rate, Ukraine would struggle to recapture its territory before its forces ran out of combat power or muddy ground hinders their manoeuvres. The apprehensions come just weeks before the expiration of a USD 43 billion package of US funding to Kyiv, requiring the Biden administration to seek approval from Congress before continuing further assistance. 

On 20 August, the UK Ministry of Defence in its daily intelligence update wrote that Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS) are likely under intense pressure to step up air defences in western Russia as attacks have intensified in the past week. According to the ministry, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s territory are strategically important because Putin invaded Ukraine on the assumption that the war would have only a little direct effect on Russians. 

On 19 August, the UK Ministry of Defence noted in its daily intelligence update that, over the last week the front line has remained unchanged. Ukraine’s forces have advanced in the South along the Mokri Yaly River, securing the village of Urozhaine. In the north, Russia’s forces continued attacks in Kupiansk making no significant gains. According to the ministry, both sides confront a similar challenge: to defeat the well-entrenched forces while having limited uncommitted forces to open new assaults. 

References
Denmark to donate F-16s to Ukraine, defense ministry confirms,” Ukrinform, 20 August 2023
Ukraine to receive 42 F16 fighter jets – Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 20 August 2023
Injury toll in Russian missile attack on Chernihiv rises to 156 – President's Office,” Ukrinform, 20 August 2023
Russia Hits Ukraine's Chernihiv After Putin Meets Generals - Wrap Up,” Kyiv Post, 19 August 2023
Russian air defense shoots down multiple targets near Belgorod – governor,” RT News, 20 August 2023
Russian military thwarts drone attack on Moscow,” RT News, 20 August 2023
Ukraine attacks Russian military airfield – MOD,” RT News, 19 August 2023
US grows doubtful Ukraine counteroffensive can quickly succeed,” Financial Times, 20 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 20 August 2023,” Twitter, 20 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 19 August 2023,” Twitter, 19 August 2023


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Heatwaves across the southeast of France
On 21 August, Le Monde reported on the heatwave with increased temperatures in the Rhone Valley region along with wildfire in the southeast. According to the report, the temperatures are expected to increase by 22 and 23 with southern France experiencing the highest temperatures. Close to 50 out of 96 health departments in France have warned of high heat warning levels. France’s national weather service spokesperson said: “Some records could be broken, notably on Tuesday in the Rhone valley with 40-42ᵒC expected.” Following the 2022 summer, July 2023 is marked as the hottest of the season, where close to 250 acres of forest are reported to have been ambushed in the fire. (“France sizzles in prolonged end of summer heat wave,” Le Monde, 21 August 2023)

HUNGARY
Leaders discuss energy cooperation
On 20 August, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban held a meeting with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. During the meeting, they discussed energy, physical security, war in Ukraine, and economic challenges. The discussion focused on the established physical gas transport link which allowed to storage of 50 million cubic meters of gas in Hungary. According to Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó this cooperation between Hungary and Azerbaijan is expected to gain importance in Europe’s gas supply due to the Ukraine war. (“Energy Cooperation with Azerbaijan Entering a New Dimension,” Hungary Today, 21 August 2023)

SPAIN
Wildfires spark in Canary Islands’
On 19 August, Spain’s island of Tenerife reported extreme weather conditions. According to the island’s regional councilor, the temperatures had increased overnight along with low humidity and increased wind. In response, the towns in the north of Tenerife were evacuated upon the concerns of high proximity to fire. The reasons behind the wildfire sparked on 16 August in Spain’s Mount Teide volcano remain unknown. In terms of the impact, close to 5,000 hectares are predicted to have been exposed to extreme fires. On 20 August, firefighters from the Canary Islands’ reported on the advance made in safety efforts taken towards the community in combatting the wildfires. According to Canary Islands President Fernando Clavijo: “We warned of a complex situation, with rising temperatures and wind... and it's true the night started very hard with many calls saying the fire was very close to people's homes.” The fire on the Island’s come after the heatwave and increased global temperatures. (“Tenerife: More residents evacuated as wildfire spreads,” Deutsche Welle, 19 August 2023 ; “Firefighters push forward against Tenerife wildfire,” Deutsche Welle, 20 August 2023)

RUSSIA
Roscosmos reports the crash of Luna-25
On 20 August, Russia’s space agency Roscosmos reported that its lunar programme Luna-25 had crashed following an “abnormal situation.” According to the report, in the first stage, the Luna-25 collided with the moon's surface after it got caught in an uncontrolled orbit. Roscosmos said: “During the operation, an unplanned situation arose on board the automatic station, which did not allow the maneuver to be carried out under the given parameters.” Post the crash, Russia’s specialists will be investigating the cause of the crash. (“Russia says Luna-25 probe crashed into moon,” Deutsche Welle, 20 August 2023)

Russia imposes sanctions on UKs ministers
On 19 August, BBC reported on Russia’s foreign ministry's imposition of sanctions on UKs ministries and journalists. The list includes Culture Secretary, ICC Chief Prosecutor, and journalists from BBC, Daily Telegraph, and the Guardian. According to the ministry, the sanctions were in response to UK’s “hostile anti-Russian course.” Earlier, Russia had blocked several UKs journalists and defence officers, and the UK in line with the West has sanctioned Russia over diamonds, oil, and gas impacting more than 1,000 businesses of Russia. (“Russia sanctions UK politicians and journalists,” BBC, 19 August 2023)


19 August 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #599

War in Ukraine: Day 541

Sweden raises terror threat level after Quran burnings; Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) seeks a nationwide referendum; Germany urges telecoms to get away from the Chinese 5G gear

Photo : AP Photo/Alexandru Dobre


War in Ukraine: Days 541
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 18 August, according to Ukrinform, Oleksii Makeiev, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany, expressed hope for a swift decision on the transfer of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Speaking after a meeting in Dresden, Makeiev emphasized the need for defensive weapons amid the ongoing conflict, stressing their importance for Ukraine's victory, which he stated is in Germany and Europe's interests. Michael Kretschmer, Ukraine’s Minister President of Saxony, reiterated strong solidarity with Ukraine and labelled the war a "terrible crime."
 
On 18 August, according to Ukrinform, Germany dispatched military aid to Ukraine, as detailed on the official German government website. The assistance encompasses vital equipment such as the Patriot air defence system, along with 16 Zetros trucks (part of a larger consignment of 76) and two border protection vehicles (totalling 122 sent). Notably, Germany verifies the delivery once the weaponry is within Ukraine's borders and en route to deployment. The aid package also includes Leopard 2A6 tanks, Marder IFVs, and specialized mine-clearing tanks, demonstrating Germany's commitment to bolstering Ukraine's defence capabilities.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 August, according to Barron’s, Russia imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor, who sought the arrest of  Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President and UK ministers critical of Russia's Ukraine offensive. Russia accused London of steadfast military support for Kyiv and an "anti-Russian policy" over 18 months of conflict. Karim Khan, the ICC's British prosecutor, issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March, alleging unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine. Although Russia, not an ICC member, calls the warrant against Putin "void," the ICC remains resolute. Moscow's sanctions target 54 Britons, including ministers, journalists, and BBC, Guardian, and Daily Telegraph reporters.

On 18 August, according to the Russia's defence ministry, two Russia's warships thwarted a Ukraine's attack using an unmanned boat near Crimea. The patrol vessels, Pytlivy and Vasili Bykov, engaged and eliminated the Ukraine's boat through gunfire.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 18 August, according to the Associated Press, Ukraine and Romania have inked a pact to enhance Kyiv's grain exports through Romania, following Russia's termination of a crucial wartime shipping accord. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s Prime Minister and Marcel Ciolacu, Romania’s Prime Minister, met in Bucharest, discussing ways to bolster Ukraine's grain exports and improve transportation infrastructure, including at borders. Ukraine relies heavily on farming, with its grain vital for global wheat, barley, and sunflower oil supplies. Ciolacu aims for Romania to handle over 60 per cent of Ukraine's grain exports.

On 18 August, according to Reuters, the British court denied billionaire Eugene Shvidler's bid to overturn UK sanctions linked to his association with Roman Abramovich, a Russia's businessman. The oil tycoon, worth USD 1.6 billion, was sanctioned after Russia's Ukraine invasion; his jets were seized. Shvidler claimed unfair targeting, emphasizing his distance from Russia. UK Foreign Office praised the judgment and sanctions' strength. Shvidler plans to appeal, asserting the absence of UK government guidance. Over 1,600 individuals, including Abramovich, were UK-sanctioned following the invasion, freezing USD 23 billion. Shvidler's legal team argued he gained no financial benefits from Abramovich, and sanctions impacted his assets and reputation.

On 18 August, according to Reuters, the US has granted approval to transfer F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands to Ukraine for defense against Russia's forces once pilot training concludes, according to a US official. The move follows Ukraine's active pursuit of F-16s to counter Russia's air superiority. Denmark and the Netherlands were assured expedited transfer approval after pilot training. A coalition of 11 nations will train Ukraine's pilots in Denmark. Despite doubts about the F-16s' immediate impact, NATO allies Denmark and the Netherlands have led training initiatives to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities against ongoing Russia's aggression.

On 18 August, according to Euronews, amid concerns over the Russia's mercenary group Wagner, Lithuania closed two border crossings with Belarus, citing security and smuggling concerns. The closures are driven by rising tensions and allegations of Belarusian provocations. The move comes as Lithuania seeks to limit cross-border journeys due to fears of potential espionage recruitment and amid strained relations due to the disputed 2020 Belarusian election and the Ukraine's conflict. Belarus criticized Lithuania's decision, deeming it "far-fetched."

On 18 August, according to the latest intelligence update by the UK's Ministry of Defence, Sergey Kiriyenko, the Russia's Presidential Administration's First Deputy Head, visited Donetsk, occupied Ukraine. He assessed school integration into Russia's education. Zaporizhzhia Oblast received Russia's instructions for new educational standards. Russia's journalists join occupied regions' media, and a pro-Kremlin history textbook praising Russia's military operation will be used in occupied areas and Russia from 01 September. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War 

On 18 August, according to the Associated Press, leaders of the US, Japan, and South Korea convened at Camp David to strengthen security and economic ties, addressing regional challenges posed by China and North Korea. The "Camp David Principles'' were established, including a communications hotline for threat response. Although the summit emphasized broader security concerns, leaders criticized China's "dangerous and aggressive" actions in the South China Sea, opposing unilateral changes to the Indo-Pacific's status quo. The three nations pledged to consult and share information in times of Pacific security crises. Despite historical differences, Japan and South Korea are seeking rapprochement amid shared security challenges from North Korea and China.

References
Ukrainian ambassador to Germany hopes for quick decision on Taurus missiles,” Ukrinform, 18 August 2023
Germany delivered Patriot air defense system to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 18 August 2023
Russia Sanctions ICC Prosecutor, UK Ministers: Foreign Ministry,” Barron’s, 18 August 2023
Russian war ships thwart Ukraine's attack near Crimea -Russian military,” Reuters, 18 August 2023
Neighbors Ukraine and Romania sign accord to boost Kyiv’s grain exports through Romanian territory,” Associated Press, 18 August 2023
Michael Holden, “Businessman Shvidler loses court bid to overturn UK sanctions,” Reuters, 18 August 2023
Steve Holland and Idrees Ali, “US approves sending F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlands,” Reuters, 18 August 2023
Lithuania shuts two Belarus border crossings over threat from Wagner group,” Euronews, 18 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 18 August 2023,” Twitter, 18 August 2023
Aamer Madhani, Darlene Superville, and Matthew Lee, “US, Japan and South Korea agree to expand security ties at summit amid China, North Korea worries,” Associated Press, 18 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

AUSTRIA
Former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz  charged with false evidence in corruption inquiry
On 18 August, according to Le Monde, Sebastian Kurz, Austria's ex-chancellor, faced charges of providing false testimony in a parliamentary inquiry related to alleged corruption during his first government, leading to his trial on 18 October. The indictment also involves Kurz's former chief of staff and another individual. The case centers on Kurz's role in setting up a holding company and its leadership appointments. Despite denials, Kurz stepped down in 2021 due to a separate investigation into suspected bribery. Austria's next election is scheduled for next year, and recent polls indicate the Freedom Party leading. The charges against Kurz mark a significant development in Austria's political landscape, potentially affecting the upcoming elections and underscoring ongoing concerns about corruption in the government. (“Former Austrian leader Kurz charged with giving false evidence in corruption inquiry,” Le Monde, 18 August 2023)
 
GERMANY
Interior Minister urges telecoms to get away from the Chinese 5G gear
On 18 August, according to Politico, Nancy Faeser, Germany's Interior Minister, urged telecoms providers to move away from using Chinese company Huawei's equipment if it poses security risks. She emphasized that security authorities have long warned against dependency on such equipment. The government is conducting security checks on Chinese technology in telecom networks and plans to ban components with serious security risks. This move aligns with the European Commission's call for member countries to address security concerns posed by Chinese 5G vendors. Germany's stance reflects growing global concerns about potential risks associated with Chinese telecoms equipment. Germany's shift away from Chinese 5G equipment underscores the ongoing debate about the security implications of relying on such technology, highlighting the challenges in balancing technological advancement with national security concerns. (Mathieu Pollet, “Time to cut back on Huawei, German minister tells telecoms giants,” Politico, 18 August 2023)
 
POLAND
Referendum planned on key issues amid opposition
On 18 August, according to Euronews, Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) seeks a nationwide referendum in October on topics including migration, border security, retirement age, and state company privatization. The opposition "Civic Platform" party criticizes PiS for biased questions. The referendum's approval is yet to be confirmed, but the opposition's boycott suggests concern about potential outcomes. The proposed referendum highlights political polarization in Poland, with the ruling party aiming to engage the public on critical issues. However, the opposition's skepticism underscores suspicions of a biased approach and fears of results favoring the ruling party's agenda. (“Poland to hold referendum on accepting migrants as part of EU scheme,” Euronews, 18 August 2023)
 
ROMANIA
Prime Minister urges police action against beach violence
On 18 August, according to Politico, Marcel Ciolacu, Romanian Prime Minister, called on law enforcement to address the recent surge of violence at the country's seaside resorts. He emphasized "zero tolerance" for disturbances and expressed support for police and gendarmes. Several incidents, including fights involving tourists, lifeguards, and police, have occurred at the Black Sea coast. Ciolacu's demand for stricter law enforcement reflects growing concerns over safety and order during peak tourist season. The prime minister's strong stance highlights the challenge of maintaining a safe and peaceful environment in tourist destinations, especially during busy periods, and underscores the need for effective policing to ensure a positive experience for visitors. (Laura Hulsemann, “After beach brawls, Romanian PM urges ‘zero tolerance’ from cops,” Politico, 18 August 2023)

SWEDEN
Raises terror threat level after Quran burnings
On 18 August, according to Euronews, Sweden has elevated its terror threat to four out of five due to a series of public Quran burnings by anti-Islam activists, triggering global Muslim protests. Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s Prime Minister, announced the decision based on law enforcement and security service advice. Recent desecrations of the Quran in Sweden prompted outrage and demonstrations across Muslim nations. Kristersson urged citizens to maintain their daily routines while safeguarding democratic values. Concerns have arisen about potential retaliatory actions from extremist groups like Hezbollah, al-Shabaab, and al-Qaida. This development underscores the global impact of local actions and demonstrates the delicate balance between protecting freedom of expression and preventing radicalization and violence. (“Sweden raises its terror threat to four out of five after Quran burnings,” Euronews, 18 August 2023)
 
THE UK
Immigration policies' negative spiral
On 18 August, according to Le Monde, the UK's tough stance on immigration, including recent policies to deter migrants from crossing the English Channel, has drawn criticism. Despite hostile rhetoric, such policies haven't curbed migration flows, with perilous sea crossings rising. Tragic incidents highlight the human cost. Hostile statements fuel hatred and xenophobia, leading to violence. While debates on immigration need openness, labor shortages must also be addressed. Brexit hindered coordination tools and skewed migration policy. Effective management involves European cooperation and relations with countries of origin. Unless truth is acknowledged, developed nations risk perpetuating powerlessness in their immigration policies. It highlights the potential negative consequences of xenophobia and emphasizes the need for more open debates on immigration while focusing on practical solutions like cooperation and addressing labor shortages. (“The United Kingdom's immigration dead end,” Le Monde, 18 August 2023)
 
REGIONAL
EU gas reserves near full capacity ahead of winter
On 18 August, according to Euronews, the European Commission reported that the European Union's natural gas reserves are at 90.12 per cent of capacity, well ahead of the 01 November target. With 1,024 TWh in storage, EU nations are better prepared for winter, notably following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Kadri Simson, EU Energy Commissione, said that investment in renewable energy and efficiency can further enhance energy stability. While EU nations vary in storage levels, the bloc's efforts to diversify energy sources have contributed to reduced reliance on Russia's gas. The EU's proactive measures to bolster gas reserves and diversify sources have increased energy security, mitigating the impact of geopolitical disruptions. This news underscores the importance of strategic energy planning and investments in reducing dependency on a single supplier. (“EU gas reserves reach 90% ahead of November deadline,” Deutsche Welle, 18 August 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Hungary partners for combat drones
On 18 August, according to the Associated Press, Hungary, collaborating with Israeli and German firms, signed an agreement to manufacture combat drones, bolstering its military capabilities and defence industry. The partnership involves Israeli company UVision and an unnamed German counterpart. Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, highlighted Hungary's commitment to a robust defense industry, including a combat vehicle factory majority-owned by German firm Rheinmetall. The move signifies Hungary's determination to strengthen its defence forces while advocating for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The country's increasing defence spending aligns with NATO's expectations. Hungary's strategic partnership with Israeli and German companies for combat drone production not only enhances its military prowess but also underlines its commitment to self-sufficiency in defence technology. This move aligns with NATO's defence spending guidelines, reflecting Hungary's focus on both regional stability and national defence capability. (Bela Szandelszky, “Hungary is to produce combat drones in cooperation with Israel and Germany, the prime minister says,” Associated Press, 18 August 2023)


18 August 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #598

Latvia’s Prime Minister Resigns: Three Questions | War in Ukraine: Days 538

UN to halt Turkish Cypriot road construction in buffer zone; Spain's Socialist candidate secures key parliament win; Strategic CBRN reserve with EU funding established

Photo : LETA, Ieva Leiniša


In Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan

Latvia’s Prime Minister Resigns: Three Questions
On 14 August, following the split in the coalition government, Latvia’s Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš announced to resign. Kariņš New Unity (JV) party which formed a coalition with National Alliance and United List in the 2022 elections will be dissolved due to persisting differences and a new prime minister will be chosen. The clash of interest is due to objections from the National Alliance (NA) and Combined List (AS) on the proposal against Karins to include the Progressive Party (PRO), the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS). Apart from this, differences also exist in approving policies relating to welfare schemes and economic growth. Karins said: “For any country, there are difficulties when someone tries to hold on to their office.”

How New Unity won 2022 Saeima elections?
Until 2019 due to wide differences, forming a coalition was a challenge. The win of the New Unity party in the October 2022 elections was viewed as a positive signal as it laid the basis for continued political stability. This was possible due to a shuffle in the support for other competing parties. Harmony Party (a centre-left pro-Russian party) which had topped in the 2018 election, lost the majority in 2022, the Union List which had competed for the first time came third and the Union of Greens and Farmer vote share increased by three per cent. The divide in votes and the inability to form a coalition by other parties led to Karins’s success to form a coalition after 2018, again in the 2022 elections with the National Alliance and the Conservatives maneuvering through COVID-19, the war in Ukraine. It projected safety for Latvia against Russian aggression and provided scope to engage closely with NATO.

What are the differences within the coalition over Karins?
When the coalition was signed in 2022, Latvia was affected by the war in Ukraine similar to Europe in terms of inflation, and the energy crisis. By 2023, this inflation lowered by 6.4 per cent but not the differences within the coalition. Karins decision to include ZZS and PRO in the existing coalition with NA and AS was proposed to implement reforms. This was not well taken by the existing partners as they fear more members would lead to more differences. According to NA and AS, issues such as “..school network arrangement, improvement of health care situation, labour force issue, stock exchange listing of state-owned capital companies, social issues.” Missed priorities are top among the concerns of NA and AS. Apart from this missed priorities of the government and personal differences over budget to health and education between the JV and AS party heads cracked the coalition.

What’s ahead for the JV?
The JV has managed to increase its representation in 2022 in the parliament from eight to twenty-six mandates. This was possible not due to socio-economic development but due to people’s aversion to Russia’s aggression and the government’s timely response. JV’s coalition with NA and AS held 54 votes in total in the parliament. After the dissolution opens a possibility for JV to join with  ZZS and PRO giving 52 seats to maintain the majority and prevent another snap election or intermediary government.

References
Claudia Chiappa, “Latvian prime minister announces resignation,” Politico, 14 August 2023
Ilona Bērziņa, “OPINION | Latvian PM is the architect of his own government’s collapse,” BNN, 21 June 2023
Three Latvian parties sign coalition deal to form government,” Associated Press, 14 December 2022
Phil Juris Rozenvalds, “Krisjanis Karins governments: competitors to friends or friends to enemies?,” The Baltic Times, 26 July 2023
Padmashree Anandhan, “Latvia Elections 2022: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 226,” NIAS Europe Daily Brief, 08 October 2022


War in Ukraine: Days 538
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 17 August, according to The Kyiv Independent, Ukraine's Azov Brigade, part of the National Guard, resumed military operations at the front, engaging in combat tasks near the Serebrianskyi forest. The brigade is holding captured lines and causing significant losses to Russian forces. Recently, the brigade's artillery destroyed a Russian mortar and a vehicle in Luhansk Oblast. Azov Brigade gained prominence for defending Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant. 

On 17 August, according to Africa News, Dmytro Kouleba, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, aimed for a "long-term" effort to enhance relations with Africa, seeking to diminish Moscow's influence on the continent. Kouleba envisions a "Ukrainian-African renaissance" and partnership based on mutual cooperation. He asserts that while many African nations remain neutral in the conflict, a shift away from Russia is evident in countries like Liberia, Kenya, Ghana, and Mozambique. Kouleba accuses Russia of using "coercion, corruption, and fear" to maintain control in Africa and pledges to liberate Africa from Russian dominance through diplomacy and cooperation.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 17 August, according to TASS, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s Defence Ministry Spokesman, said that the Russian forces launched a missile strike, destroying a Ukrainian military train with ammunition in Dnepropetrovsk Region. In the Kupyansk area, Russian forces eliminated around 125 Ukrainian troops and improved their forward position. They also attacked Ukrainian units in Krasny Liman, destroying about 55 Ukrainian soldiers. Successful offensive operations were conducted in the Donetsk area, resulting in the destruction of over 310 Ukrainian troops. Air defence forces downed 18 Ukrainian military drones, while Russian forces wiped out two Ukrainian UAV control posts and an ammo depot in Donetsk People’s Republic.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 17 August, the Riksdag, Sweden’s Parliament, approved donating military equipment worth up to SEK 3.25 billion to Ukraine. The government can provide spare parts, emergency supplies, ammunition, mine-clearance equipment, and transport vehicles. Additionally, the government can sell a limited number of Rb 99 (AMRAAM) air-to-air missiles to the US, as part of a program to strengthen Ukrainian air defences. The move will increase the defence budget by MSEK 545 in 2023, allowing the Government to order equipment worth SEK 2.8 billion to replenish the donated items. The decision was initiated by the Committee on Finance, not a government bill or private motion.

On 17 August, according to The Press United, Nicolas Sarkozy, former France’s President, emphasized the need for diplomacy to resolve the Ukraine conflict, urging a neutral Ukraine to act as a bridge between Europe and Russia. He stated that Russia's invasion was a mistake, but stressed that diplomacy is the way forward. He suggested recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and proposed referendums under international supervision for disputed areas. Sarkozy criticized unrealistic promises of EU and NATO membership for Ukraine, advocating for its neutrality instead. He asserted that Europe and Russia need each other and highlighted the importance of strong security assurances for Ukraine's neutrality.

On 17 August, according to Reuters, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General, affirmed Ukraine's autonomy in determining negotiation timing after the Russian invasion. This echoes NATO's unchanged stance following recent comments from a senior member. Stoltenberg stressed that Ukraine alone can gauge when conditions are ripe for talks and decide acceptable solutions at the negotiating table. NATO's recent summit confirmed an invitation to Ukraine when conditions align and members agree, underscoring Ukraine's independent path apart from Russia. 

On 17 August, according to Barron’s, General Daniel Zmeko, Slovakia's army chief, made a rare official visit to the southern Ukrainian front line, as confirmed by Ukrainian military sources. General Zmeko met with the Tavria operational-strategic group near Zaporizhzhia. He expressed gratitude for Slovakia's "material and technical assistance." 

On 17 August, according to the Associated Press, amid Russia's conflict with Ukraine, the scheduled performance of Anna Netrebko, Russian opera singer, in Prague was canceled due to political pressures. Prague's government and coalition parties opposed the concert as insensitive. The cancellation was agreed upon by Prague's Municipal House and the organizing agency, Nachtigall Artists Management. Netrebko, who previously faced controversy for her support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, won't seek compensation. 

On 17 August, according to The Daily Sabah, a civilian cargo ship, defying Russia's blockade, arrived in Turkey after leaving Ukraine. The Joseph Schulte, a Hong Kong-flagged vessel, challenged Russia's bid to seal Ukraine's Black Sea access. It utilized a new humanitarian corridor established by Kyiv after Russia paused a grain agreement brokered by Turkey and the UN. This move comes after Russia fired warning shots at a Turkish-crewed cargo ship bound for Ukraine. 

On 17 August, according to The Kyiv Independent, Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s President, stated that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, isn't trying to drag Belarus into the Ukrainian war. Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, emphasized that Belarus won't participate unless Ukrainian forces cross their border. He noted Russia's alleged goals in its "special military operation" in Ukraine were fulfilled. Lukashenko urged negotiations without preconditions, including discussing Crimea and contested Ukrainian territories. He warned of a forceful response to external aggression and indicated the potential use of nuclear weapons. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War 

On 17 August, according to Deutsche Welle, Li Shangfu, Chinese Defence Minister, visited Belarus to enhance military cooperation, meeting with Lukashenko. While they agreed on increased military drills, specifics of the collaboration were not detailed. Lukashenko emphasized that their cooperation was not directed against other nations, relying on China and Russia for military aid. Shangfu's visit follows his meeting with Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Defence Minister in Moscow. 

References
Martin Fornusek, “Azov Brigade returns to fight at front,” The Kyiv Independent, 17 August 2023
Ukraine announces a long fight against the "Russian hold in Africa",” Africa News, 17 August 2023
Russia’s missile strike wipes out Ukrainian army’s ammo train in Dnepropetrovsk area,” TASS, 17 August 2023
Further military equipment to be donated to Ukraine,” riksdagen.se, 17 August 2023
France’s Sarkozy urges West to get real on Crimea,” The Press United, 17 August 2023
Gwladys Fouche and Victoria Klesty, “Ukraine alone decides when conditions right for peace talks- NATO's Stoltenberg,” Reuters, 17 August 2023
Slovakian Military Chief Visits Ukraine Front Line,” Barron’s, 17 August 2023
Prague government cancels performance by Russian soprano Anna Netrebko,” Associated Press, 17 August 2023
1st cargo ship under Ukraine’s new Black Sea route reaches Türkiye,” Daily Sabah, 17 August 2023
Maxim Rodionov, “Putin not pushing Belarus to enter war with Ukraine, says Lukashenko,” Reuters, 17 August 2023
China, Belarus seek closer military ties,” Deutsche Welle, 17 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FINLAND
Strategic CBRN reserve with EU funding established
On 17 August, according to the Finnish Government, Finland received EUR 242 million EU funding to set up a chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) strategic reserve to tackle emergencies and threats. The reserve will store protective equipment, detectors, tests, medicines, and vaccines for first responders and civilians. A collaboration between various ministries and agencies is overseeing the project, which aligns with the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. The move enhances Finland's preparedness for accidents and threats while contributing to the EU's joint capacities. Similar reserves are emerging in France, Poland, and Croatia, with lessons learned from these projects to shape EU-wide guidelines post-pilot phase. (“Europe’s largest CBRN reserve to be established in Finland,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 August 2023)
 
SLOVAKIA
Spy chief and officials charged with abuse of power
On 17 August, according to Deutsche Welle, Slovakia charged its spy agency chief, Michal Alac, and other intelligence officials with alleged abuse of power and criminal conspiracy. The charges also target Vladimir Pcolinsky, former SIS head, and Roman Konecny, National Security Authority Director. The accusations include forming a criminal group, abuse of public authority, and obstruction of justice. Ahead of September elections, these charges add political complexity. Eduard Heger, former PM, called for police investigation independence, while Robert Fico, ex-PM, criticized the cases as a "police coup." Fico's party might gain from recent polls, signaling potential policy shifts, notably on Russia. (“Slovakia spy chief facing criminal charges ahead of key vote,” Deutsche Welle, 17 August 2023)
 
SPAIN
Socialist candidate secures key parliament win
On 17 August, according to Le Monde, Spain's newly elected Parliament voted in favor of Francina Armengol, Socialist Party candidate, as chamber speaker. The move supports Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's push for a leftist government. The outcome of inconclusive elections raises doubts about Sánchez's ability to form a cohesive government, potentially leading to new elections. The Popular Party's defeat underscores its isolation due to alliances with Vox, weakening its position. The involvement of Carles Puigdemont, Catalan politician and journalist, adds political complexity, as he seeks commitments on separatist issues from the incoming government. The win for the Socialist candidate reflects a potential shift towards a leftist government, but challenges in forming a cohesive administration remain amid a closely divided Parliament. (“Spain: Socialist wins key parliament vote that could pave way for new leftist government,” Le Monde, 17 August 2023)
 
SWEDEN
Government raises security threat level amid Quran burnings
On 17 August, according to Politico, Sweden elevated the security threat level to four out of five due to Quran burnings, becoming a "priority target" for violent Islamism. The Swedish security service urges normalcy despite the heightened alert. Estonia advises caution for travelers in Sweden, while the UK warns of possible terror attacks. Recent Quran burnings by far-right groups spark condemnations and concerns, leading to tensions with Muslim-majority countries. The incidents highlight the challenges of managing religious sensitivities and extremism in Europe. (Laura Hulsemann, “Sweden raises terror threat level after Quran burnings,” Politico, 17 August 2023)
 
REGIONAL
UN to halt Turkish Cypriot road construction in buffer zone
On 17 August, according to the Associated Press, the UN mission in Cyprus will prevent the construction of a road by Turkish Cypriots that would breach the UN-controlled buffer zone, potentially escalating tensions. The UN aims to obstruct the road’s creation through non-violent means, as it contravenes the mission's mandate to maintain the buffer zone's status quo. The road links a Turkish Cypriot village to a mixed Greek Cypriot-Turkish Cypriot village, and the construction is seen by Greek Cypriots as a potential military maneuver. The move may hamper peace talks and impact Turkey's EU relations. Cyprus is striving to restart negotiations to end its division. (Menelaos Hadjicostis, “UN says it will block road construction that would encroach on a buffer zone in divided Cyprus,” Associated Press, 17 August 2023)


16 August 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #596

War in Ukraine: Days 538

Alexander Stubb to run for Finland's presidential elections; Spain passed a law for stillborn babies; UK invests in AI initiatives to slash carbon emissions

Photo : Kacper Pempel/Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 538
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 15 August, Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine's Prime Minister, reported on Telegram that another Russian missile attacks hit multiple Ukrainian cities, damaging civilian structures in eight regions. The attacks caused casualties and injuries, affecting residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and other civilian infrastructure. Shmyhal praised the Air Defence Forces for intercepting most missiles during the night, minimizing the impact. Over 200 emergency service personnel are engaged in firefighting and rescue operations. The missile strikes occurred after an air alert due to missile launches from the Caspian Sea region.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 August, according to TASS, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President addressed the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security, attributing global security challenges to Western geopolitical recklessness and neocolonialism. Putin highlighted the simmering tensions worldwide and emphasized that these issues primarily arise from the West's selfish actions and geopolitical decisions. He cited examples such as the Sahara-Sahel region's instability due to the fallout from the intervention in Libya. Putin advocated for international cooperation to counteract these challenges, strengthen confidence between nations, and create opportunities for development.

On 15 August, according to Russia's defence ministry, Russian forces conducted airstrikes on multiple military industrial facilities in Ukraine, causing significant damage. Ukraine reported that the country's air force successfully destroyed 16 of the 28 cruise missiles launched by Russia.One missile hit a Swedish ball bearing factory in Lutsk, killing three employees. The strikes also damaged a sports complex in Dnipro and a children's playground in Lviv. On the frontlines, Russia claimed to have repelled multiple attacks. Additionally, Russia intercepted French SCALP missiles delivered to Ukraine.

On 15 August, according to The Moscow Times, Alexander Bogomaz, Bryansk regional governor, Russian military and security forces successfully intercepted a Ukrainian sabotage group attempting to infiltrate the Bryansk region in western Russia. The operation involved Russia's armed forces, Federal Security Service (FSB) border agents, and National Guard special units. The targeted area was Kurkovichi village, located across the border from Ukraine's Chernihiv region.

On 15 August, according to The Moscow Times, Russia's Central Bank raised interest rates from 8.5 per cent to 12 per cent due to the ruble's decline below 100 against the US dollar. The decision aims to curb price stability risks. The ruble briefly strengthened before falling back below 98 after the rate hike announcement. This emergency meeting marked the first since February 2022, when rates were raised to 20 per cent during the Ukraine conflict.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 15 August, according to The Wall Street Journal, British police arrested five individuals, including three Bulgarians, suspected of working for Russian intelligence while living undercover in the UK. Charges include violating the Official Secrets Act and possession of false identity documents. They were released on bail and are due to appear in court in September. The UK has also passed new legislation criminalizing undeclared covert agents for foreign powers and actions undermining democracy.

On 15 August, according to Reuters, Sweden plans to provide Ukraine with a new military support package worth USD 313.5 million, including ammunition and spare parts for existing weapon systems. The Defence Minister stated that this aid is part of Sweden's long-term commitment to Ukraine in what is anticipated to be a prolonged conflict. This marks Sweden's 13th military aid package to Ukraine, bringing the total value of their assistance to around USD two billion.

On 15 August, according to Reuters, Poland showcased its largest military parade since the Cold War in Warsaw, with a display of military strength aimed at sending a message to Moscow and bolstering ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) credentials ahead of upcoming elections. With 2,000 soldiers from Poland and NATO countries, 200 military items, and 92 aircraft participating, the parade marked the 103rd anniversary of Poland's victory over the Soviet Union. PiS, in power since 2015, intends to double the army's size and allocate four per cent of GDP to defence.

On 15 August, according to The Defence Post, Germany was reportedly considering modifying its long-range Taurus missiles before potential deployment to Ukraine. Kyiv seeks these air-launched cruise missiles to counter Russian aggression. Concerns over using the weapon to strike deep into Russia have made Germany hesitant. Discussions with the missile manufacturer are underway to integrate programming restrictions.

References
Russian missile attack damages civilian objects in eight regions - PM Shmyhal,” Ukrinform, 15 August 2023
Global tension spots stem from West’s neocolonialism, 'geopolitical recklessness' — Putin,” TASS, 15 August 2023
Russia Says Hit Military Industries In Ukraine Overnight,” Barron’s, 15 August 2023
Russian Forces Repel Ukrainian Incursion Into Border Region – Governor,” The Moscow Times, 15 August 2023
Jake Cordell. “Russia Raises Interest Rates to 12% After Ruble Plummets,” The Moscow Times, 15 August 2023
David Luhnow and Georgi Kantchev, “U.K. Arrests Bulgarian Trio Suspected of Spying for Russia,” The Wall Street Journal, 15 August 2023
Sweden prepares $314 mln military support package for Ukraine,” Reuters, 15 August 2023
Poland displays military might in huge parade as elections loom,” Reuters, 15 August 2023
Joe Saballa, “Germany Mulls Modifying Long-Range Taurus Missiles for Ukraine,” The Defence Post, 15 August 2023
Top UN aid official in Ukraine condemns latest wave of indiscriminate attacks,” news.un.org, 15 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

BOSNIA
Mass protests in Bosnia demand action on violence against women
On 15 August, according to the Associated Press, thousands of Bosnians rallied in multiple cities demanding authorities to address violence against women following a live-streamed murder of an ex-wife. Demonstrators called for increased protection for women, curbing violent media content, and better police handling of violence cases. Bosnia's citizens were particularly outraged as the victim had reported harassment, and the shooter had a criminal record. The incident highlights pervasive gender-based violence in the Balkans, fueled by conservative norms and post-conflict challenges. This news illustrates the global concern regarding gender-based violence and highlights how incidents of violence against women spark widespread social movements demanding policy changes and increased protections. (“Thousands in Bosnia protest against violence after man livestreamed killing of ex-wife on Instagram,” Associated Press, 15 August 2023)
 
FINLAND
Alexander Stubb to run for presidential elections
On 15 August, according to Politico, Alexander Stubb, Former Finnish Prime Minister, announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections in Finland. Stubb, known for his roles in Brussels and the Finnish government, will compete against other contenders including Pekka Haavisto, ex-foreign minister, and Olli Rehn, Bank of Finland governor. The first round of voting is scheduled for 28 January 2024, with a runoff on 11 February, if needed. Alexander Stubb's candidacy adds a significant player to the Finnish presidential race, with his extensive political and European experience shaping the competition. (Elisa Braun, “Former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb to run for president,” Politico, 15 August 2023)

FRANCE
Wildfire under control after evacuations
On 15 August, according to the Associated Press, a large fire in southern France, scorching 500 hectares, is now under control after evacuating over 2,000 people. No injuries reported, and residents have returned. Firefighters continue to battle the blaze as the affected area remains under watch. The Pyrenees-Orientales region faced extreme heat, dryness, and winds. (“France: Pyrenees wildfire contained but still dangerous,” Associated Press, 15 August 2023)

SPAIN
Registration and naming of stillborn babies
On 15 August, according to Euronews, Spain passed a law allowing stillborn babies with a gestation period of over six months to be registered and named in the civil registry. This change follows advocacy by pregnancy loss associations. Previously, such babies were registered as "Abortion Creatures" without names or parents' identification. While some view this as a positive step for grieving families, feminist organizations are concerned it could be a step towards recognizing the fetus as a person and undermining abortion rights. The law doesn't conflict with Spain's current abortion rights, however, it reflects a delicate balance between acknowledging grief for families while sparking concerns about potential implications for abortion rights in Spain. (Laura Llach, “Spain's new registry for stillborn babies sparks deeply personal debate,” Euronews, 15 August 2023)

THE UK 
UK invests in AI initiatives to slash carbon emissions
On 15 August, according to the Government of the UK, the UK allocated GBP one million to fund twelve AI projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions and advancing renewable energy generation. These initiatives cover diverse areas, including AI-enhanced solar energy forecasting, AI robots for monitoring dairy farming's environmental impact, and low-power AI hardware development. An additional GBP 2.25 million will back more AI innovations targeting emission reduction in energy sectors. This funding aligns with the UK's ambitious goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The UK government's financial support of AI-driven projects demonstrates its commitment to leveraging technology for achieving ambitious environmental targets. By fostering innovation in AI and decarbonization, the government aims to propel the nation toward a sustainable future, reducing carbon emissions across various industries. (“AI to help UK industries cut carbon emissions on path to net zero,” gov.uk, 15 August 2023)

REGIONAL
Bulgarians charged in UK espionage case
On 15 August, according to the Associated Press, three Bulgarians arrested in England in February on suspicion of espionage have been charged with possessing false identity documents. Orlin Roussev, Bizer Dzhambazov, and Katrin Ivanova were also suspected of working for Russian security services. The trio was found with multiple fake IDs from various countries. They were initially arrested under the Official Secrets Act 1911. The investigation is ongoing, and two others were arrested in connection with the case. This incident highlights the ongoing concern over espionage activities and the use of false identities in international intelligence operations. (“3 Bulgarian nationals arrested in espionage investigation face charges in U.K.,” Associated Press, 15 August 2023)


14 August 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #594

War in Ukraine: Days 535 & 536

Helsinki considers becoming a 'Sanctuary City'; Northern Ireland Investment Summit to showcase innovation and global opportunities; EU condemns Niger coup

Photo : Alyona Popova/TASS


War in Ukraine: Days 535 & 536
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 12 August, according to Ukrinform, the Russian army conducted 67 attacks on Zaporizhzhia region. Yuriy Malashko, Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, reported that these strikes targeted 28 settlements. Notably, 54 artillery attacks were directed at various locations including Huliaypole, Novodarivka, and Levadne. The Russian military also employed MLRS in Temyrivka and Lobkove three times and conducted airstrikes on Orikhiv, Omelnyk, and Mala Tokmachka. Komyshuvakha experienced four missile strikes, while UAVs were deployed over Zaporizhzhia, Huliaypilske, and Chervone. Despite extensive destruction to property and infrastructure, no casualties were reported.
 
On 12 August, Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Group of Armed Forces, revealed Russian attempts to escalate and gain control in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled these assaults, resulting in 69 Russian casualties and 97 wounded. They also destroyed two T-72 tanks, three armored vehicles, a D-30 howitzer, a mortar, two Russian drones, and a command post.
 
 On 13 August, according to Reuters, Ukrainian border guards erected a new sign on Snake Island, commemorating the island's resistance during Russia's invasion. The event, when a Ukrainian guard famously responded to Russian orders to surrender with a defiant phrase, symbolized Ukraine's early resistance. The island's strategic importance lies in its oversight of sea lanes to Odesa, a key Black Sea port.
 
On 13 August, according to Ukrinform, Russian shelling in the Kherson region led to the deaths of six people in two settlements. Stanislav village was targeted with MLRS, resulting in two deaths, an injury, and damage to five residential buildings. In Shyroka Balka, three adults, including a woman and two men, along with a 12 year old child were killed. Ihor Klymenko, Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, emphasized the need to forcefully stop Russians who continue to harm civilians. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 August, according to TASS, a Su-30 fighter jet crashed during a training flight in Russia's Kaliningrad region, resulting in the crew's fatalities. The incident occurred in an uninhabited area without ammunition onboard. The crash is attributed to a technical malfunction, according to the western military district. 
 
 On 12 August, according to The Moscow Times, Russian air defence forces intercepted and destroyed two Ukrainian missiles over the Kerch Strait, ensuring the safety of the Crimean bridge connecting annexed Crimea to mainland Russia. The missiles were aimed at the bridge, but no damage occurred. The Ukrainian drones near Crimea were also shot down, 14 through air defence systems and six through electronic warfare. 
 
On 13 August, according to TASS, Russia's naval ship Vasily Bykov forcibly halted the Palau-flagged cargo ship Sukru Okan en route to Ukraine's Izmail port for inspection. The Sukru Okan's captain ignored inspection demands, prompting Vasily Bykov to fire warning shots to stop the vessel. A Russian helicopter with servicemen inspected the cargo ship, which eventually halted for inspection. Once the inspection concluded, the Sukru Okan continued its course to Izmail, while Russian fleet patrols persisted in the area, according to the Russian Defence Ministry's statement.
 
On 13 August, the Russian Defence Ministry provided an update on its ongoing special military operation. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces repelled six unsuccessful attacks by Ukrainian brigades, causing losses of up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, along with vehicles and equipment. In Donetsk direction, coordinated actions by Russian units led to the repelling of six attacks, resulting in approximately 300 Ukrainian casualties and the destruction of vehicles. Similar successes were reported in Krasny Liman, South Donetsk, and Zaporozhye directions, inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian forces. Overall, over 458 aircraft, 246 helicopters, 5,708 UAVs, and various military equipment have been neutralized in the operation.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
On 12 August, according to The Brunswick News, police in Poland confiscated stickers featuring the logo of the Russian mercenary force Wagner, which appeared in Kraków. The stickers carry the message "We are here. Join us," along with a QR code linking to Wagner's recruitment website. The incident has raised concerns due to Wagner's activities in neighboring Belarus. Polish law prohibits recruiting for foreign armies and mercenary groups, punishable by up to five years in prison. Authorities are investigating the matter to determine whether it's a serious threat or a prank.
 
On 13 August, according to Deutsche Welle, despite sufficient gas reserves, the German Network Agency cautioned about lingering energy supply risks in the upcoming winter due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Klaus Müller, President of the German Network Agency, emphasized the need for continued savings and warned of potential scenarios, including an extremely cold winter and potential disruptions in gas supply to southeastern Europe. While storage rates are higher than in previous summers, concerns remain about possible gas interruptions and pipeline attacks. 
 
On 13 August, according to Bild am Sonntag, German company Rheinmetall plans to supply Ukraine with a Luna New Generation drone system by the year end, including drones, a ground control station, launch catapult, and military trucks. The versatile drone system could serve as a reconnaissance tool, establish an LTE network, and potentially intercept or disrupt communications. 
 
 On 13 August, according to Deutsche Welle, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's Foreign Minister stressed the significance of German Taurus cruise missiles for Ukraine, stating they are crucial to saving lives and expediting the conflict's resolution. He explained that the extended missile range equates to a shorter war duration. Kuleba noted the missiles' potential to target Russian occupying forces, disrupt logistics, and incapacitate command centers. While the German government is contemplating supplying Taurus missiles, no final decision has been made yet.
 
 On 13 August, the UK's Ministry of Defence gave the latest defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine. It reported that the Wagner Group appears to be downsizing and reconfiguring due to financial constraints, possibly triggered by the Russian state's actions against its owner Yevgeny Prigozhin's business interests. If Russia discontinues funding, Belarus might become the next potential financier, despite the strain on their limited resources. This downsizing could have significant implications for the group's operations.

References
"Enemy launches 67 strikes on Zaporizhzhia region, destroying 20 objects," Ukrinform, 12 August 2023
"Cherevaty: Russians try to seize initiative in Kupyansk direction," Ukrinform, 12 August 2023
"President's Office: Six people killed in shelling of Kherson region," Ukrinform, 13 August 2023
Maria Starkova and Elaine Monaghan, "Ukraine border guards remind Russia Snake Island is again theirs," Reuters, 13 August 2023
"Su-30 crashes in Kaliningrad Region, crew killed - Western Military District," TASS, 12 August 2023
"Ukraine Missiles Shot Down Over Crimea Bridge – Pro-Russia," The Moscow Times, 12 August 2023
"Russian naval ship stops Palau-flagged ship in Black Sea for inspection — top brass," TASS, 13 August 2023
"Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation," eng.mil.ru, 13 August 2023
"Polish police investigating stickers promoting Wagner group," The Brunswick News, 12 August 2023
"German agency warns of continued energy risks for Europe,Deutsche Welle, 13 August 2023
Rheinmetall to deliver Luna drone system to Ukraine — report,” Deutsche Welle, 13 August 2023
"Kuleba underlines importance of German Taurus missiles for Ukraine," Deutsche Welle, 13 August 2023
"Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 August 2023," Twitter, 13 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FINLAND
Helsinki considers becoming a 'Sanctuary City' amid migrant crackdown
On 13 August, according to Euronews, Helsinki is contemplating the designation of a 'sanctuary city' as the right-wing Finnish government tightens rules on undocumented migrants. The new government, led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and including the far-right Finns Party, plans to reverse legislation requiring local authorities to offer free basic healthcare to paperless migrants across the country. The move is part of a broader effort to create a 'hostile environment' for migrants, including cutting access to social services. While many cities are stopping or not providing free health services, Helsinki, among others, intends to continue treating undocumented migrants, potentially making it an attractive destination for medical treatment. The divide between national and local policies on undocumented migrants' access to healthcare highlights tensions within the Finnish government and underscores the broader debate on migration policy. (David Mac Dougall, "Helsinki could become 'sanctuary city' as Finland's right-wing government targets paperless migrants," Euronews, 13 August 2023)

GREECE
48 migrants rescued from inflatable boat
On 13 August, according to the Associated Press, Greek authorities successfully rescued 48 migrants from a drifting inflatable boat near Lesbos, close to Turkey. A coast guard vessel spotted the boat on Sunday morning and safely evacuated the migrants, transporting them to the port of Mytilene. Three individuals received medical attention at a local hospital. The incident highlights the ongoing migrant arrivals from Turkey to Greece, particularly during favorable summer sailing conditions. It showcases the challenges faced by Greece and underscores the need for coordinated efforts among European countries to address migration and provide humanitarian assistance to those in need. ("Greece safely evacuates 48 migrants from inflatable boat off Lesbos island; vessel sinks," Associated Press, 13 August 2023)

POLAND
PM proposes immigration referendum amid election
On 13 August, according to Politico, Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland's Prime Minister suggested holding a referendum during the upcoming parliamentary election on whether citizens support the arrival of "thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa" due to EU's relocation policy. Morawiecki's Law and Justice Party is known for its strict immigration stance, emphasizing acceptance of European refugees like Ukrainians. The referendum question criticizes the EU's forced relocation mechanism and alludes to Donald Tusk, the opposition leader. Law and Justice also plans referendums on state company privatization and retirement age. Poland's PM uses the proposed referendum on immigration to reinforce his party's restrictive stance and gain support for the upcoming election, tapping into the ongoing immigration debates in Europe. (Gian Volpicelli. "Poland prime minister floats migration referendum with grim video," Politico, 13 August 2023)

THE UK
Northern Ireland Investment Summit to showcase innovation and global opportunities
On 13 August, according to the Government of UK, over 100 global investors are set to attend the Northern Ireland Investment Summit in September, highlighting the region's innovative businesses. The event will spotlight Northern Ireland's strengths in sectors like advanced manufacturing, technology, financial services, and health sciences. Speakers including UK government officials and US Economic Envoy Joseph Kennedy III will emphasize the region's potential for growth and job creation. US financial group Citi is the principal partner, reaffirming Northern Ireland's attractiveness to international businesses. The summit aligns with the UK government's efforts to build a sustainable and inclusive economy while underlining Northern Ireland's role as a competitive business destination. ("More than 100 investors confirmed for summit in Northern Ireland," gov.uk, 13 August 2023)

MIGRATION
Central Mediterranean's deadly migration route sees surge in deaths
On 13 August, according to BBC news, the central Mediterranean route, deemed the world's most perilous migration path, witnessed an increase in shipwrecks and fatalities. More migrants attempt the treacherous journey, setting sail from North African shores to reach Europe, particularly Italy. European border agency Frontex reports that crossings and reported incidents are at their highest since 2017. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) records over 1,800 migrant deaths so far this year, compared to 1,400 in 2022, with the real toll likely higher due to unrecorded tragedies. Overcrowded and unseaworthy boats, storms, and insufficient search-and-rescue efforts contribute to the dangerous conditions. The surge in deaths on this route underscores the urgency for more coordinated efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in the central Mediterranean, including enhancing search and rescue operations and creating safer avenues for migration. (Alice Cuddy, "Migrant boats in the Mediterranean: Why are so many people dying?," BBC news, 13 August 2023)

SPORTS
La Liga files complaint against PSG alleging EU law breach
On 13 August, according to Politico, Spanish football league La Liga lodged a complaint with the European Commission against Qatar-owned Paris St-Germain (PSG), claiming their funding model violates EU competition rules. La Liga alleges Qatar's investment gives PSG an undue advantage by using foreign subsidies to secure top players and coaches, impacting rival clubs' recruitment. The complaint relies on the recent EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation, which seeks to prevent market distortions caused by non-EU funding. This move by La Liga highlights the increasing scrutiny on the financial operations of football clubs and attempts to ensure fair competition in the sport. (Gian Volpicelli, "Spain's La Liga files EU complaint over Qatar funding of French club Paris St-Germain," Politico, 13 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU condemns Niger coup
On 12 August, the EU strongly denounced the Niger coup, foreseeing detrimental effects on Niger's population, security, and regional stability. The EU urges the return to constitutional order, supporting President Bazoum and ECOWAS decisions for a diplomatic resolution. The EU backs ECOWAS efforts and the potential implementation of sanctions. President Bazoum's unjust detention and deteriorating conditions raise EU concern, demanding their immediate release. The EU pledges humanitarian aid and unwavering support for Niger's people, emphasizing human rights commitment. ("Niger: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU," consilium.europa.eu, 12 August 2023)

Switzerland participates in G20 anti-corruption meeting
On 12 August, according to the Federal Council of Switzerland, Switzerland was invited by the Indian G20 presidency to join the annual G20 Anti-Corruption Working Group (ACWG) ministerial meeting. Ambassador Alexandra Baumann led the Swiss delegation, discussing international anti-corruption measures and sharing Switzerland's experience. During the meeting, G20 High-Level Principles were adopted, focusing on international law enforcement cooperation, asset recovery mechanisms, and promoting integrity in public offices. Switzerland stressed its commitment to prosecuting corruption cases, cooperating in asset recovery, and involving civil society in anti-corruption efforts. The meeting also highlighted the importance of coordination in Ukraine's reconstruction to prevent corruption during recovery and emphasized connecting anti-corruption and human rights efforts. Switzerland's active participation in the G20 ACWG reaffirms its commitment to combating corruption and aligning such efforts with human rights principles. ("Switzerland takes part in G20 anti-corruption ministerial meeting in India," admin.ch, 12 August 2023)


12 August 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #593

War in Ukraine: Day 534

France's court suspends disbanding climate activist movement; Junior doctors in the UK extend strike amid ongoing pay dispute

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 534
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 11 August, Ukraine’s spokesperson Andriy Yermak announced the beginning of consultations with the UK on security guarantees. After the NATO summit in July, the G7 countries promised to help Ukraine build its military equipment on land, sea, and air through consultations. The decision was made to help Ukraine meet pre-conditions to join NATO.

On 11 August, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy removed the heads of military recruitment due to corruption. He said: “This system should be run by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery during war is treason.” Since January, Ukraine is centered around corruption scandals of procuring military catering and generators and since then Zelenskyy has taken actions such as exclusive commission and corruption preventions body to combat corruption.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 11 August, Russia’s defence ministry claimed to have hit a “foreign mercenary” base in Zaporizhzhia. In a statement: “In the area of the city of Zaporizhzhia, the point of temporary deployment of foreign mercenaries was hit.” It also claimed of jamming a drone that was targeted towards Moscow. In response to the increased drone attacks, Russia suspended operations in Moscow’s Vnukovo airport under safety concerns.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 11 August, the US State Department imposed sanctions on four key members of “Russia’s financial elite.” According to the department, all the sanctioned individuals were linked to Alfa Group Consortium, one of the largest financial and investment corporations and will be held accountable for making profits from the war in Ukraine. Upon the sanctions, the assets held by them in the US will be blocked and those US businesses and people dealing with them will be restricted to transact.

On 11 August, the US, the UK, France, Albania, along with Japan and Malta issued a joint statement demanding the return of Georgia’s territory to Tbilisi. When Georgia attempted to capture two regions in 2008 against Russia, it recognized the areas and set its military bases. The statement stressed Russia's to return the areas and condemned its aggression in Ukraine. In response, Russia’s UN ambassador called it a “Russophobic West.”

On 11 August, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded to Ukraine’s request to Germany for Taurus Cruise Missiles. He said that there was no update and Germany will continue to focus to discuss with international partners ahead of the delivery of such cruise missiles. The EU delivered 223,000 shells to Ukraine in line with the pledge to boost its shortage of artillery shells. According to the EU’s spokesperson: “..delivered around 223,800 artillery ammunition -- long-range self-propelled, precision-guided ammunitions as well as mortar ammunitions -- and 2,300 missiles of all types.”

On 11 August, an Austria-based charity organization revealed that close to 385 children from Ukraine who were deported to Russia were returned. According to Ukraine, more than 19,000 have been deported since the invasion and had been placed in “institutions and foster homes.” Of the 385, 84 were brought back by the charity organization.

References
Treasury Imposes Sanctions on Russian Elites and a Russian Business Association,” home.treasury.gov, 11 August 2023
Ukraine updates: Russian missiles strike hotel used by UN,” Deutsche Welle, 11 August 2023
EU Delivers Ukraine 224,000 Shells Under Ammo Plan,” BARRONS, 11 August 2023
Ukraine, Britain start negotiations on security commitments,” The Statesman, 11 August 2023
At least 385 deported Ukraine children returned from Russia: NGO,” mb.com.ph, 11 August 2023
Claudia Chiappa, “Zelenskyy fires military recruitment chiefs amid corruption concerns,” Politico, 11 August 2023
Russia says it hit ‘foreign mercenaries’ quarter in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region,” english.alarabiya.net, 11 August 2023
Drone Downed Over Moscow as Vnukovo Airport Halts Flights,” The Moscow Times, 11 August 2023
Edith M. Lederer, “6 Western nations demand Russia return two regions it took from neighboring Georgia 15 years ago,” abc news, 11 August 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

DENMARK
Defence minister fires permanent secretary over artillery purchase handling
On 11 August, according to Reuters, Jacob Ellemann-Jensen, Denmark’s defence minister removed the ministry's permanent secretary of state following criticism regarding the acquisition of artillery systems from Israel's Elbit Systems. The USD 256 million purchase was hurriedly approved by parliament's finance committee; later, it was revealed that the offer's expiry date had been misrepresented. Ellemann-Jensen regreted for the misinformation earlier in the week but disclosed during a meeting with parliament members that crucial details were omitted. The minister cited the necessity for "close and trusting cooperation" as the reason for the dismissal. This incident exposes the sensitivity and importance of transparent and accurate communication in defence procurement, especially as countries seek to modernize their armed forces. (Johannes Birkebaek and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen, “Danish defence minister dismisses key staff member after Israel arms purchase,” Reuters, 11 August 2023)
 
FRANCE
Court suspends disbanding climate activist movement
On 11 August, according to Politico, France's Council of State suspended the government's order to disband the climate activist movement, Les Soulèvements de la Terre. The movement, with over 150,000 supporters, focuses on environmental concerns and opposes infrastructure projects. The court stated that the order infringed on the activists' right to assemble and lacked sufficient evidence to support claims of incitement to violence. The group had challenged the disbanding in court with backing from political parties, arguing that it curtailed their freedom of expression. The ruling permits the activists to continue organizing protests, including a planned two-week march. However, the court's final decision on the disbanding will be made after assessing whether the group has incited violence or severely disrupted public order. (Louise Guillot, “French court suspends ban on climate movement accused of ‘ecoterrorism’,” Politico, 11 August 2023)
 
GERMANY
To get second largest NATO helicopter fleet
On 11 August, according to Reuters, Germany's acquisition of 60 Chinook helicopters from Boeing, at a cost of up to eight billion euros, will make it NATO's second largest helicopter nation after the US. This was noted by Ingo Gerhartz, German Air Force Chief. Approximately 50 of these helicopters will be stationed at the Holzdorf/Schoenewalde site in eastern Germany, alongside 1,000 additional soldiers. This move underscores Germany's commitment to enhancing its military capabilities and its role within NATO. The purchase of a significant number of advanced helicopters highlights Germany's emphasis on strengthening its defence capabilities and contributing to NATO's collective security efforts. (Riham Alkousaa, “Germany will own NATO's 2nd largest helicopter fleet after Chinook purchase, air force chief says,” Reuters, 11 August 2023)
 
THE UK
Junior doctors extend strike amid ongoing pay dispute
On 11 August, according to the Associated Press, tens of thousands of junior doctors in England commenced their fifth round of strikes, lasting four days, in a prolonged pay disagreement with the government. The strikes, scheduled until 15 August, will exacerbate the backlog in the National Health Service (NHS), with over a million procedures and appointments expected to be affected. Junior doctors' work stoppage adds to recent strikes by radiographers and senior doctors. The British Medical Association, representing around 75,000 junior doctors, seeks a 35 per cent pay increase to restore 2008 levels adjusted for inflation. The government's six per cent offer with additional consolidation has triggered the strike. The UK's ongoing labor disputes underscore rising inflation concerns in Europe. Prolonged strikes in essential sectors like healthcare can strain public services and impact the overall economy, raising questions about governments' ability to address workers' demands while managing inflationary pressures. (Pan Pylas, “Doctors in England walk off job again as pay dispute with UK government shows no progress,” Associated Press, 11 August 2023)
 
Apology for data breach of Northern Ireland police personal information
On 11 August, according to the Associated Press, Northern Ireland's police chief apologized for a significant data breach exposing the personal details of over 10,000 officers and staff. Given the region's sensitive security climate due to historical sectarian conflict, the breach raises concerns. Dissident republicans claim to possess this data and are circulating it on WhatsApp. Authorities are advising officers due to potential threats. A second breach occurred in July, involving the theft of documents and police-issued devices. The Police Federation for Northern Ireland, representing rank and file officers, received numerous concerned calls after the breach. The breach's potential impact on officer safety and security is deeply troubling, considering Northern Ireland's history of violence. This incident highlights the critical need for robust cybersecurity measures, especially in regions with historical tensions, to safeguard sensitive information and protect individuals from potential harm. (“Northern Ireland’s top police officer apologizes for ‘industrial scale’ data breach,” Associated Press, 11 August 2023)

POLAND
Ruling party plans referendum on state-owned enterprise sell-off
On 11 August, according to the Associated Press, Poland's Law and Justice party leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, announced a referendum that will ask Polish voters whether they support the privatization of state-owned enterprises. The move coincides with the party's intensified criticism of Donald Tusk, the opposition leader, ahead of fall parliamentary elections. The ruling party aims to consolidate its conservative base by addressing emotional issues like privatization and migration through referendums. Critics view this as an attempt to secure a third consecutive term, given their lead in polls but uncertain majority. The referendum's focus on privatization led to accusations of hypocrisy, as the ruling party has also sold state assets. This strategy echoes tactics used by Viktor Orban, Hungary's Prime Minister, to polarize society and consolidate power. The ruling party's use of referendums on contentious topics reflects a broader trend in some European countries to leverage populist tactics for political gain, potentially intensifying social divisions and weakening democratic norms. (Vanessa Gera, “Poland’s ruling party seeks referendum on privatization as it steps up attacks on opposition leader,” Associated Press, 11 August 2023)
 
TURKEY
Magnitude 5.3 earthquake hits southern Turkey
On 10 August, a 5.3 magnitude earthquake struck southern Turkey, causing building damage and injuring 23 people. Centered in Yesilyurt, Malatya province, it was felt in Adiyaman as well as in areas already affected by deadly earthquakes in February. This earthquake's impact on regions previously affected by seismic events emphasizes the ongoing seismic risks in the area and the need for robust infrastructure and preparedness measures. (Roberst Badendieck, “5.3 magnitude earthquake hits southern Turkey wounding at least 23 people and damaging buildings,” Associated Press, 11 August 2023)
 
ECONOMY
UBS terminates Swiss government guarantees in credit crisis resolution
On 11 August, according to the Federal Council of Switzerland, Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) has definitively ended the agreements with the Swiss government and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for federal loss protection and liquidity assistance guarantees, respectively, related to the Credit Suisse crisis in March 2023. These measures, taken under emergency law, have been terminated, eliminating associated risks for taxpayers. UBS's move comes after its takeover of Credit Suisse helped stabilize the Swiss financial system. The Confederation earned approximately CHF 200 million from these guarantees. The Swiss government will now introduce a public liquidity backstop (PLB) under regular law to further bolster financial stability. This move marks the successful resolution of a financial crisis through coordinated efforts between the government, central bank, and financial institutions, contributing to long-term financial stability. (“Credit Suisse/UBS: all federal guarantees terminated,” admin.ch, 11 August 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #592 | 11 August 2023, Friday

War in Ukraine: Day 533

Roscosmos launches Luna-25 | Romania to pay foresters EUR 200 million | Russia declares the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) 'undesirable'

Photo : Anadolu Agency


War in Ukraine: Day 532
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground 
On 10 August, according to The Kyiv Independent, Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia killed four and injured 20. The strikes targeted a church, shops, and high-rise buildings, hitting civilian infrastructure. The governor stated no military targets were involved in the attacks. 

On 10 August, according to Ukrinform, Ukraine announced temporary merchant vessel routes for Black Sea ports. These routes are primarily for civilian vessels stranded in Ukrainian ports since Russia's invasion. Ships confirming readiness to navigate under current conditions will be allowed.  
 
 On 10 August, according to Ukrinform, a massive drone attack hit Ukraine's oil depot.  No casualties were reported, and radiation and chemical levels in the region remain within normal limits, eliminating the need for mandatory evacuations.

On 10 August, the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) suffered a power outage from its main 750 kilovolt external line. Forced to switch to a backup 330 kilovolt line, further disconnection could lead to a blackout, posing a nuclear and radiation safety threat to the plant. The plant's unit four is already in a precarious "hot shutdown" state due to the occupiers' actions, according to Energoatom (State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating company). 

On 10 August, according to Alarabiya News, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, lauded Saudi Arabia-hosted talks and growing global interest in Volodymyr Zelenskyy's, Ukraine's President, ten point peace plan, seen as a breakthrough. Over 40 nations attended, including major economies but not Russia, aiming to support Ukraine's vision for peace amid its conflict with Russia. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 August, according to Barrons, Russia declared the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) 'undesirable.' Russia's prosecutor has labelled the CIT, known for investigating Moscow-related conflicts, as "undesirable," a move often used to suppress dissent. This action criminalizes CIT's work, endangering its staff and banning the sharing of its content online. The group, which monitors Russia's Ukraine offensive, is accused of engaging in anti-Russia propaganda campaigns. This decision aligns with Russia's efforts to curb independent media, as it has previously targeted outlets like Meduza, Dozhd, and Bellingcat.

On 10 August, according to TASS, Russian air defence brought down two drones targeting Moscow. According to Sergey Sobyanin, Moscow Mayor, Russian Air Defence Forces intercepted and destroyed two military strike drones aimed at Moscow. The drones were shot down in the Kaluga Region and near the Central Ring Road federal highway.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 10 August, according to The Washington Post, Joe Biden, US President, requested USD 20.6 billion in additional funding for Ukraine. Biden has urged Congress to approve USD 20.6 billion in extra funding for Ukraine as its military faces challenges in its counteroffensive against Russia. The funding request includes USD 13 billion for new military aid and USD 8.5 billion for economic, humanitarian, and security assistance, with additional forms of support. While the Western allies have provided strong support, the ongoing counteroffensive's progress has been slow, and questions arise about the conflict's state. The White House's request for aid aligns with Ukraine's 10-point peace plan. The House Freedom Caucus opposes more funding, potentially leading to debates over government spending in September. Biden's overall funding request totals around USD 40 billion.

On 10 August, according to the Associated Press, Poland plans to station 10,000 troops along its Belarus border due to concerns about Russian-linked mercenaries in Belarus and unauthorized migrant crossings. The move follows Poland's addition of 2,000 troops to the border in the next two weeks. Worries over migrants entering illegally from Belarus have persisted for two years, with Poland accusing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of exploiting the situation for "hybrid warfare." Concerns also extend to the Wagner Group fighters deployed in Belarus and Belarusian military helicopters entering Polish airspace. The move to bolster security aligns with Poland's parliamentary elections in October, as the ruling Law and Justice party seeks a third term. NATO monitors the situation in Belarus but sees no immediate threat.

 On 10 August, according to Deutsche Welle, Germany announced the dispatch of two more Patriot air defence missile systems to Ukraine. Zelenskyy hailed the move as a step toward establishing a comprehensive air shield for the nation, safeguarding both people and communities. The Patriot system, developed by the US, effectively counters Russian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. It encompasses mobile batteries equipped with command centres, radar stations for threat detection, and launchers. Ukraine already utilizes German and the US-supplied Patriot systems, which have successfully intercepted Russian hypersonic missiles. The reinforcement highlights international support for Ukraine's defence capabilities amid ongoing tensions.

References
Alexander Query, "Ukraine war latest: Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia kill 4, injure 20," The Kyiv Independent, 10 August 2023
"Ukraine announces temporary corridors for merchant vessels sailing from its ports," Ukrinform, 10 August 2023
"Russian drones destroy oil depot in Rivne region," Ukrinform, 10 August 2023
"ZNPP loses power from main line, on verge of blackout - Energoatom," Ukrinform, 10 August 2023
"Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia were a breakthrough for Kyiv: Ukrainian FM," Alarabiya News, 10 August 2023
"Russia Brands Conflict Monitoring Group' Undesirable'," Barron's, 10 August 2023
"Russia's Air Defense Forces down two strike drones targeting Moscow, says mayor," TASS, 10 August 2023
Jeff stein and Marianna Sotomayor, "Biden asks for $20.6 billion for Ukraine as counteroffensive sputters," The Washington Post, 10 August 2023
Vanessa Gera, "Poland plans to deploy 10,000 troops to its border with Belarus," Associated Press, 10 August 2023
"Germany bolsters Ukraine's air defenses with 2 more Patriot systems," Deutsche Welle, 10 August 2023


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

POLAND
Concerns over Belarus’s military exercises trigger Poland to deploy more border force
On 11 August, Poland’s defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced the deployment of 10,000 additional soldiers on the Belarus border. According to Blaszczak: “..closer to the border with Belarus to scare the aggressor so that they do not dare to attack us.” The move comes after Belarus plans to do a military exercise near Poland’s border and the general elections date was announced. In 2021, Poland was breached by illegal border crossing by 4000 migrants, post which a steel fence was installed covering half of the shared border with Belarus. (Raphael Minder and Barbara Erling, “Poland to station 10,000 troops on Belarus border,” Financial Times, 10 August 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Roscosmos launches Luna-25 to study Moon’s South Pole
On 11 August, Russia’s space agency Roscosmos launched its first lunar mission after 50 years. Luna-25 mission aimed to study the moon’s south pole, which is believed to hold water in the form of ice. Such resources will be critical to support life on the moon and help explore the cosmos from the moon's surface. According to Russia’s Space Research Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences spokesperson: “The first goal is to find the water, to confirm that it is there .. to study its abundance.” From the geopolitical dimension, the US, China, and India have been consistently working to land on the moon. The ongoing efforts by big space powers to mark their presence are driving a pole race on moon. (Joshua Posaner, Matt Berg And Laura Hülsemann, “Russia shoots for the moon as space race against US heats up,” Politico, 11 August 2023; “Russia launches first moon mission in nearly 50 years,” Deutsche Welle, 10 August 2023)
 
THE UK
Data leak of police officer prompt relocation in the Northern Ireland
On 10 August, the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) chief apologised for an accidental leak of police officers online. According to the chief: “An early worst-case scenario that we have been dealing with is that third parties would attempt to get this data to intimidate, corrupt or indeed cause harm to our officers and staff.” Such leaks are sensitive as the officers become targets of “dissident groups” The data leak, which took place in July, was also revealed on 09 August included the details of the UK’s domestic intelligence body MI5 in Northern Ireland. In response, the government plans to relocate the officers whose data was exposed. (“Northern Ireland police data breach puts officers at risk,” Deutsche Welle, 11 August 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Romania to pay foresters to prevent cutting of trees
On 10 August, the European Commission approved EUR 200 million as an aid to Romania to pay to its foresters. Till 2027, the foresters will receive the aid to not cut trees. The motto of the scheme is to reverse the biodiversity loss, boost the ecosystem and preserve the habitat. In the press release of the European Commission: “..the scheme was necessary and appropriate to support the development of the forestry sector.” In 2020, the Commission began an infringement procedure against Romania to protect the Natura 2000 forests and prevent the illegal cutting of trees. Romania, which was under EU’s pressure to combat illegal logging for years has implemented similar measures to control such illegal activities and deployed a police force to follow such crimes. According to many environmentalists, such measures have not been effective. (Louise Guillot, “Romania to pay farmers to leave trees standing,” Politico, 10 August 2023)
 
Energy prices expected to double by winter for Europe
On 10 August, Financial Times reported on the increasing gas prices and Europe’s energy shocks. According to the report, Europe was able to thwart energy crisis in 2022, but after supply cutoff by Russia has led Europe to depend more on LNG. This has resulted in energy prices becoming more sensitive to supply shortage and price surges up to 40 per cent. According to one of the energy consultants: “Europe has understandably backfilled Russian pipeline supply with versatile LNG. But that versatility leads to increased price volatility.” One of the top investment banks, Goldman Sachs warned that energy prices can double or triple by winter in Europe. The existing problems are, Australia’s LNG is not cost-effective to reach Europe’s shores due to long voyage and high shipping cost Europe’s storage currently stands at 90 per cent, but the reserves does not promise as winter temperatures may severe. (Shotaro Tani, “Gas price spike underscores Europe’s vulnerability to global energy shocks,” Financial Times, 10 August 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #591 | 10 August 2023, Thursday

Saudi Arabia peace talks: Moscow's response and China’s renewed interest | War in Ukraine: Day 532

Storm 'Hans' ravages Scandinavia; Italian bank stocks faces sharp decline; 100 Croatian soccer fans face criminal charges

Photo : Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS


In Focus
Peace talks in Saudi Arabia: Moscow's response and China’s renewed interest
By Sreeja JS

On 04 and 05 August, Saudi Arabia hosted Ukraine peace talks in Jeddah, attended by delegates from 42 countries and the UN. Russia was not invited to the talks. According to Ukraine’s government, the delegates agreed that any peace treaty to end Russia’s war against Ukraine must be rooted in respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the UN Charter.
 
Andriy Yermark, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said: “We had very productive consultations on the key principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built.” Later, he mentioned that the implementation of the “peace formula is part of Ukraine’s victory strategy and the meeting in Jeddah will go down in history.”
 
Li Hui, China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs, said: “We have many disagreements and we have heard different positions, but it is important that our principles are shared,” underscoring China’s renewed commitment to support the peace talks.
 
Celso Amorim, Brazil’s Chief Presidential Adviser, said: “Any real negotiation must include all parties. Although Ukraine is the biggest victim, if we really want peace, we have to involve Moscow in this process somehow.” Previously, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s President, rejected the meeting calling it “pointless” unless Russia was present.
 
Ukraine's aim
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, first announced his ten-point peace formula at a G20 summit held in November 2022. The formula includes proposals for Russia’s complete withdrawal from Ukraine’s territory, restoration of pre-war borders, a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for its war crimes, and the prevention of escalation of conflict. The meeting in Jeddah was the second in the series, with a similar meeting held earlier in Copenhagen (June 2023) where the formula could not garner the support it received now. In Jeddah, Ukraine reiterated the importance of the peace formula and the need to draft principles to end the conflict. Renewing the diplomatic offensive, Zelenskyy engaged with the delegates from the ‘Global South’ countries such as  Brazil, India, China, South Africa and the oil-rich Gulf countries who largely remained neutral. 
 
Moscow’s response
Moscow’s response to the ten-point peace plan and the Jeddah meeting remains the same; no talks would be successful without acknowledging Russia’s concerns. On 31 July, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, commented that Moscow would closely follow the meeting in Jeddah. He added that any attempts to promote a peaceful settlement are “worthy of a positive assessment.” On 07 August, Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, remarked that “...without Russia’s participation and without taking into account its interest, no meeting on the Ukraine crisis has any added value.” The response of Russia is lukewarm, and despite its willingness to start negotiations, actual efforts are yet to be seen. Further, Vladimir Putin recently said there could be no cease-fire while Ukraine’s forces are on the offensive without rejecting the idea of peace talks over Ukraine.
 
China’s interest
China was at the centre stage of the Jeddah meeting as a probable diplomatic success story for Ukraine. Previously, China refrained from attending a similar meeting in Copenhagen. China’s renewed interest follows its proposal of a 12-point peace plan in February 2023. Putin said the plan could become viable if the West and Ukraine are ready to dialogue and negotiate. This peace plan proposed by Beijing aimed to portray itself as a neutral actor and a potential mediator. It called for respect for the UN Charter, balanced European security architecture, cessation of hostilities, conflict resolution through dialogue and negotiation, and an end to unilateral sanctions. Despite the stark criticisms raised against it, the initiative necessarily denotes a shift in Beijing’s approach from abstaining to initiate the dialogue. One of the reasons could be to project itself as a responsible global power. For Ukraine and West, China's engagement is a win despite its future, given the larger role it can play in the negotiating table because of its close relations with Russia.
 
References
Angus McDowall, "Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed," Reuters, 06 August 2023
Veronika Melkozerova, "Kyiv says Jeddah participants back Ukraine territorial integrity in a peace deal," Politico.eu, 06 August 2023
"Saudi Arabia kicks off Ukraine talks that exclude Russia," Al Jazeera, 05 August 2023
Lawrence Norman and Stephen Kalin, "Saudi Arabia to Host Ukraine Peace Talks as Part of Western Effort to Woo Global South," Wall Street Journal, 29 July 2024
"Peace talks without Russia have no value – Moscow," RT News, 07 August 2023
Xinlu Liang, "China takes cautious line on Saudi-led Ukraine talks but Russia still the big bear not in the room: analysts," South China Morning Post, 07 August 2023
Laurie Chen and Martin Quin Pollard, "Analysis: China's Ukraine peace-talks gambit shows shift in approach," Reuters, 06 August 2023
Kawala Xie, “Explainer | China’s Ukraine peace plan: what does it say and what are its chances of success?” South China Morning Post, 27 April 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 532
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on Ground
On 09 August, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported the spike in deaths in Pokrovsk after a missile attack by Russia. Zelenskyy accused Russia of launching Iskander missiles to target rescue workers. The same was confirmed by Ukraine’s military administration on the death of 82 after the attack. Russia’s Defence Ministry had claimed on the attack on 08 August, stating a strike on Ukraine’s command post in Pokrovsk.

On 09 August, Ukraine’s spokesperson Mykhailo Podolyak denied Russia’s accusation on Ukraine for attacking Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using a drone. He said: “Ukraine did not carry out any kind of drone attack on the ZNPP, was not planning and will not even in theory do so.” Earlier, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a nuclear fuel storage of the plant.

On 09 August, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister announced the re-opening of the humanitarian corridor between Russia and Ukraine which was closed after the war.  The decision comes after refugees found it difficult to cross front line and have entered EU countries like Georgia instead of Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 August, TASS reported an explosion at Zagorsk, a optical-mechanical factory located 50 kilometres northeast of Moscow. According to the report, 60 were injured and 38 apartment blocks had been damaged. The factory is the key manufacturer of precision optical devices for Russia’s military such as night vision goggles, binoculars, and for police.

Moscow’s Mayer Sergei Sobyanin reported on shooting down of two combat drones targeted towards Moscow. According to the report: “An attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack by unmanned aerial vehicles over the territory of the Moscow Region was thwarted during the night.” This will be the third consecutive drone attack into Moscow since August. Russia appointed governor in Donetsk reported on Ukraine shelling in the eastern Donbas resulting in death of a child and injury of two people.

On 09 August, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Russia will be increasing its military in the western borders, especially Finland and Poland. Shoigu pointed that the move was in caution with NATO ‘s move to deploy forces and weaponry in Finland and Poland’s movement of military forces to its border.

On 09 August, TASS reported on multiple exchange of air and artillery strikes in direction of Kupyansk, Lugansk, Mankovka, Krasny Liman, and Zaporizhzhia between Russia and Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 09 August, Poland’s government announced to send additional 2,000 soldiers to its eastern border shared with Belarus. It is due to increasing fears after movement of the Wagner group into Belarus. Apart from the security threat, Poland also faces the problem of refugees from Africa, and the Middle-East who have been trying to enter Poland through Belarus. According to its President, Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has been conducting military exercises in both sides of the border.

On 09 August, an arms producing German company, Rheinmetall announced to provide Ukraine 50 Leopard 1 tanks. The company bought the weapons system earlier from a Belgian company called OIP Land Systems, and re-equipped it in Germany. Leopard 2 was earlier agreed by Germany along with Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine. Comparing both, Leopard 2 is slightly advanced in terms of calibre, speed, and engine type. Leopard 2 has a calibre of 120 mm, whereas Leopard 1 has only 105 mm. In speed, Leopard 2 is seven kilometres per hours speeder than Leopard 1.

References
Russian forces press ahead with advance in Kupyansk area, top brass reports,” TASS, 09 August 2023
Russian defense ministry reports Kiev’s failed attempted attack on Moscow Region by drones,” TASS, 09 August 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia downs drones headed for Moscow,” Deutsche Welle, 09 August 2023
Polina Ivanova, “Blast rocks Russian military optics plant near Moscow,” Financial Times, 09 August 2023
Child killed, two injured by shelling in Donetsk - Russian-installed official,” Reuters, 09 August 2023
Russia launches deadly rocket attack on city of Zaporizhzhia,” France24, 09 August 2023
Russia to build up forces at western borders to counter NATO threat, defence minister Sergei Shoigu says,” Sky News, 09 August 2023
Poland to send 2,000 troops to reinforce Belarus border,” Reuters, 09 August 2023
Gaëlle Girbes and Marc Santora, “A Missile Strikes the Heart of a Ukrainian City — and Then Another,” The New York Times, 08 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

NORWAY
Southern Norway dam partially bursts amidst heavy rain and landslides
On 09 August, days of heavy rainfall triggering landslides and floods in southern Norway led to the partial bursting of a dam, forcing downstream communities to evacuate. Initially considering a controlled explosion to alleviate pressure, authorities abandoned the idea as water breached the dam at the Braskereidfoss hydroelectric power plant. The Norwegian Prime Minister warned of ongoing flooding risks, stating this could be the highest water level in 50 years. Dam generators failed due to a power grid outage, causing water to overflow and damage the power station. Storm Hans, affecting Scandinavia and the Baltics, was linked to extreme weather. Scientists highlight the challenge of old dams against intensified rainfall and potential climate change impact. (Jan M. Olsen, “Dam in Norway partially bursts after days of heavy rain, flooding and evacuations,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)
 
THE UK
Seven foreign ships being detained after failing inspections
On 09 August, the UK's Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) reported that seven foreign-flagged ships were detained in UK ports in July due to failed Paris MOU Port State Control (PSC) inspections. The MCA also noted five new detentions during the month. This action is in line with Lord Donaldson's inquiry recommendations to prevent pollution from merchant shipping. The Paris MOU, a regional port state control agreement, aids inspections and targets high-risk vessels for future assessments using the THETIS electronic database. Inspections, conducted by MCA surveyors, identify non-compliance, potentially leading to detention. The list provides ship details, company information, classification society, recognized organization, and flag state. Grounds for detention and other deficiencies are also outlined. The detention of foreign ships underscores the importance of stringent inspections to ensure maritime safety and environmental protection. (“Foreign flagged ships detained in the UK during July 2023 under Paris MOU,” gov.uk, 09 August 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Storm 'Hans' ravages Scandinavia
On 09 August, Deutsche Welle reported that the powerful storm 'Hans' swept across Scandinavia, unleashing strong winds and heavy rain that triggered landslides, infrastructure damage, and evacuations. The storm hit Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland, disrupting power, flooding villages, and halting public transport. Mud and rocks from overflowing streams damaged roads and homes in northwestern Sweden. Denmark's northern parts faced storm winds complicating wildfire containment. The storm's impact underscores the region's vulnerability to extreme weather events. (“Storm 'Hans' batters Scandinavia,” Deutsche Welle, 09 August 2023)
 
ECONOMY
Italian bank stocks plunge as 40 per cent tax on profits approved
On 09 August, according to Associated Press, Italian bank stocks faced sharp declines after the approval of a proposal to impose a 40 per cent tax on certain bank profits this year. The tax aims to assist consumers and businesses grappling with higher borrowing costs caused by European Central Bank interest rate hikes. Major banks like UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Banco BPM, BPER, and Banca MPS experienced stock drops on the Milan Stock Exchange. The Italian finance ministry justified the tax, stating it aligns with existing European rules on extra bank margins. Analysts anticipate banks will challenge or seek amendments to the proposal during parliamentary approval. The unexpected tax announcement triggered significant stock declines for Italian banks, hinting at potential opposition from the banking sector during the upcoming parliamentary process. (Nicole Winfield, “Italy proposed a bank tax to help people with interest rate hikes. The move sent stocks plunging,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)
 
ENVIRONMENT
Stagnation in European freshwater biodiversity
On 09 August, the Federal Council of Switzerland reported that an international team, including a researcher from Eawag, has published a study in the journal Nature focusing on the biodiversity of European inland waters based on invertebrates. The study reveals that biodiversity in river systems across 22 countries increased significantly since 1968, but this positive trend has stalled since 2010, as many rivers struggle to fully regenerate due to ongoing pressures like pollution, climate change, and invasive species. The research underscores the need for further measures to restore freshwater biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of combating pollutants, linking floodplains, and adapting river systems to changing conditions. The study provides valuable insights into the state of European freshwater biodiversity and the need for sustained conservation efforts to counter ongoing threats, echoing global concerns over ecological degradation in aquatic ecosystems.(“First recovery, then stagnation: The state of biodiversity in European bodies of water,” admin.ch, 09 August 2023)
 
MIGRATION
Calamitous migrant shipwreck: Lampedusa
On 09 August, according to Politico, the Italian island of Lampedusa witnessed a tragic shipwreck as a small boat carrying migrants capsized in the Strait of Sicily. Forty one migrants, including three children, lost their lives, while four survivors were rescued by a Maltese cargo ship. The survivors recounted that a seven metre metal boat carrying 45 migrants had left Sfax, Tunisia. After about six hours, it capsized due to a large wave, leading to the tragic incident. The bodies of the deceased migrants have not yet been recovered. The International Organization for Migration reports that 2,387 people have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean this year while attempting to reach Europe. Italy's far-right government seeks to revise EU rules on welcoming and relocating migrants, while the EU recently reached an agreement with Tunisia to deter asylum seekers from departing for Europe. Around 1,100 migrants hosted in Lampedusa will be transferred to other towns in Sicily. (Elena Giordano, “41 migrants die in shipwreck off Italy’s Lampedusa island,” Politico, 09 August 2023)
 
SPORTS
Croatian Soccer fans in Athens court over deadly violence
On 09 August, around 100 Croatian soccer fans faced criminal charges in an Athens court, including murder and affiliation with a criminal organization, for their alleged involvement in deadly fan violence. Following the fatal stabbing of a Greek fan outside AEK Athens' stadium, charges were issued against 103 suspects, primarily Croatian nationals, for offences like assault and illegal possession of explosive materials. The murder charge is expected to be reconsidered for most defendants. Video footage showed youths wielding weapons and explosives during the incident, leaving 10 injured and one dead. Greek authorities arrested six Croatian nationals attempting to flee the country. The Greek capital hosted a Champions League qualifier amid high security, while UEFA Super Cup preparations continued. (Derek Gatopoulos and Lefteris Pitarakis, “Nearly 100 Croatian soccer fans face murder, gang-related charges in Greece after deadly violence,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
UK and Turkey strengthens anti-illegal migration partnership
On 09 August, according to the Government of the UK, UK and Turkish law enforcement agencies are intensifying collaborative efforts to combat organized immigration crime and disrupt the supply chain of materials used in illegal migration journeys, including boat parts. Following Robert Jenrick, the UK’s Immigration Minister, visit to Turkey last month and other strategic international visits, this partnership aims to tackle illegal migration routes and smugglers. The cooperation involves joint operations, information exchange, and the establishment of a new "Centre of Excellence" by the Turkish National Police, supported by the UK, to counter organized immigration crime. A MOU will facilitate swift data and intelligence sharing, while increased personnel deployment will enhance collaborative efforts to dismantle criminal gangs involved in facilitating illegal crossings. The partnership reflects the UK's commitment to addressing global migration challenges through international cooperation and disruption of criminal networks. (“UK and Türkiye strengthen partnership to help tackle illegal migration,” gov.uk, 09 August 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Ignazio Cassis visits to Australia and New Zealand
On 09 August, according to the Federal Council of Switzerland, Ignazio Cassis, Swiss Federal Councillor, concluded his visit to Australia and New Zealand from 06 to 09 August, focusing on bilateral relations, Pacific geopolitics, and climate change. During the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties celebration with New Zealand, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed to establish diplomatic relations with Niue. Cassis highlighted the strong bonds between the countries and their commitment to multilateralism. In Australia, discussions centred on cooperation, science, Ukraine conflict, consular relations, and climate change, with plans for Australia to host COP31 in 2026. Cassis also engaged with Swiss communities abroad, emphasizing their connection to homeland. His visit marks the first by a Swiss government member to Australia and New Zealand in a decade. Cassis' visit signifies Switzerland's diplomatic efforts in strengthening relationships with Pacific countries, addressing climate concerns, and engaging with its diaspora. (“Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis in Australia and New Zealand: global security and bilateral relations at centre of talks,” admin.ch, 09 August 2023)
 
Lebanese traffickers arrested for Europe-bound migrant smuggling
On 09 August, Lebanese troops arrested Lebanese and Syrian traffickers planning to send migrants to Europe through the Mediterranean Sea. The military detained 31 Syrians and 15 Lebanese in northern coastal towns, where they had prepared boats for illegal sea crossings. The detainees are under investigation. The country, once a haven for refugees, now witnesses Lebanese, Syrians, and Palestinians seeking better prospects overseas. In September, a boat from Lebanon sank off Syria's coast, claiming 94 lives. The incident led to a crackdown on smuggling networks. Lebanon's deteriorating economic situation has prompted a rise in people attempting dangerous sea journeys to Europe, challenging its role as a host for refugees. (“Lebanon’s army says it has detained dozens of smugglers planning to send migrants to Europe,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #590 | 09 August 2023, Wednesday

War in Ukraine: Day 531

Ukraine’s warns of potential strikes on Russian Black Sea ports and ships; Belarus and China reaches an all-weather partnership level; Six biggest water firms subject to legal action in UK

Photo : Planet Labs PBC, via Associated Press


War in Ukraine: Day 531
By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 08 August, according to Ukrinform, a Russian attack in Donetsk left 31 police officers injured, seven emergency service workers wounded, and one dead. In a targeted strike on Pokrovsk, the second Russian attack occurred on 07 August. Ivan Vyhivskyi, the head of the National Police, conveyed on Facebook: “Yesterday's assault on Pokrovsk left 31 police officers injured.” He also expressed empathy for the deceased Andriy Omelchenko, a Deputy Head of the State Emergency Service in Donetsk.
 
On 08 August, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, appealed for support after the devastation in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region. A residential building was hit, causing casualties. Rescue operations are ongoing with support from various services. Ukraine pleaded for global assistance, vowing to hold Russia accountable for the destruction caused by this ongoing conflict.
 
On 08 August, according to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine excavated a female spy network in Ukraine's Donetsk region having ties to Russia. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) revealed a secret female agent network linked to Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) and Wagner group. Local women were recruited to aid Russia's aggression. They gathered intelligence on Ukraine’s defence forces' equipment, including flight paths of combat aircraft and armoured vehicle transport routes. Three Russian agents were captured during operations, revealing communication channels to the FSB and Wagner group.
 
On 08 August, according to Politico, Ukraine’s official warned of potential strikes on Russian Black Sea ports and ships. Oleg Ustenko, Ukraine's senior official, stated that Ukraine’s military could target Russia’s Black Sea ports and ships, including oil tankers, in retaliation for Russia's attacks and withdrawal from a grain deal. Declaring Russian ports a "war risk area," Ukraine aims to disrupt Russia's oil exports and financial resources for war. A Russian tanker, the Sig, was reportedly hit by a Ukraine strike. Tensions escalate as maritime safety diminishes.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 August, according to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, a Ka-52 helicopter took down Ukraine’s vehicle in a military operation. The Tsentr Group of Forces' Ka-52 helicopter successfully destroyed Ukraine’s infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) with a Vikhr-M anti-tank missile in the Krasny Liman area of the special military operation zone. Coordinating with frontline observers, the pilots execute a low-altitude mission, evading Ukraine’s defences. The helicopter's versatility enables precise strikes on various targets using different ammunition.
 
On 08 August, according to CNA, Russia claims a command post strike in eastern Ukraine amidst civilian casualties. Russia allegedly attacks Ukraine’s command post in Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine, while Kyiv reports civilian deaths and destruction. Emergency responders brought out survivors from the rubble. Russia also reports advancing toward Kupiansk, northeast Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 08 August, according to Deutsche Welle, Germany plans to prolong Patriot Missile Deployment in Poland. Germany plans to extend the temporary presence of Patriot missile units in Poland until the year ends. The three squadrons stationed near Zamosc since January, originally for six months, aid NATO air defence. The deployment safeguards the eastern alliance area and civilian population. Germany clarified no extension beyond 2023 is anticipated.
 
On 08 August, according to the Government of the UK, the UK imposes sanctions on supporters of Russia’s war efforts. James Cleverly, the UK's Foreign Secretary, announces 25 new sanctions targeting individuals and businesses aiding Russia's illegal Ukraine invasion. Entities from Turkey, Dubai, Slovakia, and Switzerland are included. This measure aims to limit Moscow's access to foreign military equipment. Three Russian companies involved in importing crucial electronics for military equipment are also sanctioned. Action is taken against Iran and Belarus for supporting Russia's war, with sanctions on Iranian UAV developers and Belarusian defence organizations. This marks the UK's substantial action against military suppliers, aligning with international efforts to curb Russia's conflict support.
 
On 08 August, Civil Georgia reported the global reactions to the 15th Anniversary of the Russia-Georgia 2008 war. Charles Michel, European Council President, reaffirms EU support for Georgia's territorial integrity. Roberta Metsola, European Parliament President, condemns Russia's aggression. Marija Pejčinović Burić, Council of Europe's Secretary General, affirms backing for Georgia's sovereignty. Oliver Varhelyi, EU Commissioner, addresses the continued military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Multiple nations denounce Russia's aggression and occupation, advocating for Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
 
On 08 August, the UK's Ministry of Defence gave the latest defence intelligence update on the Ukraine war. The update says Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, approves a law allowing Russia’s National Guard, Rosgvardia, to acquire heavy weaponry. With up to 200,000 personnel, led by Viktor Zolotov, Putin's former bodyguard, the move follows the Wagner mutiny in June 2023. Despite claims of Rosgvardia's success during the mutiny, no evidence supports their effective action. Zolotov's suggestion of including artillery and attack helicopters indicates the Kremlin's focus on strengthening Rosgvardia for regime security.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war

On 08 August, according to Politico, the shipping industry faces a dilemma amid the Black Sea conflict. Risks to maritime trade and Russia’s oil deals prompt concerns. The G7's USD 60 per barrel price cap complicates matters. Greek, Turkish, and foreign tankers may reconsider operations. The International Chamber of Shipping refrains from commenting on deterrence. Economic and safety concerns challenge the business-as-usual approach with Russia. Insurance prices surge, affecting profitability and vessel safety. It is time for Western companies to reassess their involvement.

References
Missile strikes on Pokrovsk: Number of injured police officers rises to 31,” Ukrinform, 08 August 2023
ZelenskyyUa/status/ Twitter,” Twitter, 08 August 2023
Ukrainian Intel Exposes Network of Female Agents Working for Russia and Wagner,” Kyiv Post, 08 August 2023
Gabriel Gavin, “Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping,” Politico, 08 August 2023
Department for Media Affairs and Information, “Ka-52 helicopter crew eliminate enemy IFV in Krasny Liman direction of special military operation,” eng.mil.ru, 08 August 2023
Russia claims strike on Ukraine command post, Kyiv says 7 civilians killed,” CNA, 08 August 2023
Germany to extend patriot missile program,” Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2023
Largest ever UK action targets Putin's access to foreign military supplies,” gov.uk, 08 August 2023
Georgia’s International Partners React to the Anniversary of the Russia-Georgia 2008 War,” Civil Georgia, 08 August 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 08 August 2023,” Twitter, 08 August 2023


In Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

POLAND
Dates for general elections announced. AdvantagePiS
On 08 August 2023, Andrzej Duda, Poland’s President, announced to hold general elections on 15 October. He said: “The future of Poland is a matter for each of us! Use your rights.” The current government, the Law and Justice Party (PiS) headed by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki leads by six per cent points under the center-right Civic Coalition. At the regional level, the PiS party’s decision to bring the legal system under political control, natural gas deal with Russia, and migration earned the objection of the EU, resulting in the withholding of pandemic recovery funds. This turned around when Poland began to support Ukraine militarily, becoming the highest spenders in NATO. At the domestic level, Poland is one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe with the lowest unemployment rate, despite the issues over LGBT, and abortion laws which resulted in protests. Apart from the issues, an opposition with personal differences also adds to the benefit of PiS for the October elections. (Claudia Chiappa, “Poland’s president announces election date,” Politico, 08 August 2023)
 
THE UK
Legal action on firms underreporting water pollution
On 08 August, BBC reported on the six biggest water firms subject to legal action for underreporting pollution and overcharging customers. Of the six, Severn Trent, Water UK, Thames Water, and United Utilities are in the line. According to a law firm, the result of the case could give GBP 40 for each customer, but the case does not guarantee success. One of the environmental consultants pointed out that the legal action would be new, but comparing previous cases, non-had reached a conclusion and may take a longer period. For the Competition Appeal Tribunal to go through the claims and grant permission for the process to continue may take a year, given the ambiguity settlement will take time. According to one of the spokespersons from Water UK: “The regulator has confirmed that over 99% of sewage works comply with their legal requirements. If companies fail to deliver on their commitments, then customer bills are already adjusted accordingly.” Other firms denied the claims as “highly speculative.” (Noor Nanji, “Water firms face legal action over sewage pollution,” BBC, 08 August 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Slovenia, Austria, Croatia, Portugal, and Scandinavia experience climate extremities
On 04 August, deadly floods began in Slovenia resulting in landslides affecting more than 2.1 million people. Following the continued floods, a team from Germany's Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) has launched an operation to evaluate the damages and deploy more personnel with equipment for rescue. Slovenia’s government announced the execution of a Disaster Response Mechanism, where rescue teams from other EU countries will involve in recovery operations. Apart from this, the German Foreign Ministry will provide USD 767000 for the operation and France will support it with two special excavators. Similarly, Sweden, Finland, and Norway have issued yellow and orange alerts facing the worst floods and storms in 25-50 years. On 08 August, Portugal experienced forest fires of 6700 hectares in the south and the north has been issued red alert to carry out early evacuations. The government has reported the temperatures to have hit 41 degrees Celsius with more than 120 municipalities marked high-risk areas. (“Slovenia floods: First German emergency team starts work,” Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2023; “Sweden, Norway issue red alerts as heavy rain derails train, floods roads,” Al Jazeera, 07 August 2023; “Forest fires in Portugal spread towards Algarve, 1,400 people evacuated,” De Standaard, 08 August 2023)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Zoom’s new terms spark user data privacy debate
On 08 August, De Standaard reported on increased criticism against Zoom for adjusting its terms of use. Zoom introduced a new set of terms in March which allows the company to take customer data under “perpetual and worldwide license." This is later used to develop its machine learning, AI, and test other Zoom products. According to Zoom, the use of customer data is only to improve “customer experience,” but after repeated criticisms, it has detailed that it does not use the data without the user's consent. Zoom which recently launched services such as digital meeting assistant, and Zoom IQ is said to be developed from user conversations, and video chats. Apart from Zoom, Microsoft and other big tech companies are beginning to explore AI technologies as future potential. (Stijn Bronzwaer, “Another riot about privacy when using Zoom,” De Standaard, 08 August 2023) 
 
INTERNATIONAL
Belarus and China reach an all-weather partnership
On 07 August, in an interview Belarus’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Belarus to China, Yuri Senko stated that Belarus and China had reached an all-weather partnership level. According to Senko, after Pakistan, Belarus will be second to reach this level. Belarus’s rapeseed oil production, agricultural products, potash fertilizers, and tourism industry will be key points of collaboration. Rapeseed oil is one of the components for China to produce a new type of product that is well-demanded in the domestic market, and Belarus is the top destination in Europe for many Chinese for the weather and good food. China is expected to spend close to USD 600 billion in tourism, and Belarus has become one of the places of investment. For Belarus, China’s mechanical engineering, Chinese traditional medicine, and setting of the China-Belarus industrial park are attractive to upgrading its production facilities and healthcare. (“Ambassador: Belarus is the second country to reach all-weather partnership with China,” eng.belta.by, 07 August 2023; “Brantsevich: Economic cooperation between Belarus, China's Chongqing on growth track,” eng.belta.by, 07 August 2023)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #589 | 08 August 2023, Tuesday

War in Ukraine: Day 530

Dissolution of the far-right party; Multinational effort combats Cyprus wildfires; Surge of migrant across the Polish border

Photo : South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff / European Pressphoto Agency / The New York Times


War in Ukraine: Day 530
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on Ground
On 07 August, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia for launching strikes on a residential building in Pokrovsk located 70 kilometres from the Donetsk region. He said: Two missile strikes. An ordinary residential building was hit.” On the same, Interior Minister reported five death and 31 to have been wounded.  

On 07 August, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during a phone call with US Secretary Antony Blinken placed a request for Army Tactical Missile System long-range missiles (ATACMS). The missile system has a capacity to be launched 305 kilometres, with ability to fire from HIMARS launcher to push Russia and command post far to more than 322 kilometres.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 August, Russia’s Education Minister Sergei Kravtsov revealed the new set of history textbooks which applauds Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. The book designed for grade 11 was written in less than five months and is scheduled to be distributed from September. This is seen as a way to instil patriotism in children.

On 07 August, Russia claimed to have brought down Ukraine’s drone in the southwest of Moscow. According to Russia’s governor, the drone neither damaged infrastructure nor people. Moscow is beginning to be subject of drone attacks since August.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
On 07 August, following the summit held by Saudi Arabia to discuss peace plan to settle the Ukraine war, Germany assured its support to the process. Ministers from the US, China, India, and Europe attended the summit. Russia in response to the summit stated that a peace settlement will be possible only if Ukraine stopped launching terrorist attacks.

On 07 August, UKs Ministry of Defence in its daily intelligence update stated that Russia’s air force does not have effectively support its land forces. According to the ministry Russia’s efforts to address the issue by deploying more free-fall bombs along with glide attachments, it said: “but they have yet to demonstrate consistent accuracy.” It also added: “Russia appears to have been less able to generate effective tactical airpower in the south.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war

On 07 August, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a phone conversation with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov stressed on China’s position in Ukraine war. He said that China will be a “objective and rational voice,” in the international forum to vouch for peace talks. In a statement released by the ministry: “actively promote peace talks.” China also proposed a 12-point peace proposal which was received well by Ukraine and Russia.

References
Vivian Salama “U.S. Considers ATACMS Long-Range Missiles to Bolster Ukraine’s Fight,” Wall Street Journal, 29 June 2023
UK intelligence: Russian aircraft at front have no decisive operational effect,” pravda.com.ua, 07 August 2023  
Russia unleashes missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, retaliating for an attack on a tanker,” abc News, 06 August 2023
Sarah McCammon, and Joanna Kakissis “Nations meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss how the war in Ukraine might end,” npr.org, 07 August 2023
Ukraine says Jeddah talks 'huge blow' to Russia, new meeting agreed,” Reuters, 07 August 2023
Simone McCarthy, “China assures Russia it remains ‘impartial’ on Ukraine war after attending Saudi peace talks,” CNN, 08 August 2023
Ukraine's foreign minister asks U.S. for ATACMS long-range missiles,” Reuters, 07 August 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia strikes Pokrovsk homes, Kyiv says,” Deutsche Welle, 07 August 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
Far-right party dissolves
On 07 August, Le Monde reported Gérald Darmanin, French Interior Minister, ordering the dissolution of the far-right party Civitas due to its anti-Semitic remarks during a summer seminar. The party, mainly consisting of ultra-traditional Catholics, gained political party status in 2016 and supported the far-right Eric Zemmour, in the previous year's presidential election. With about 165,000 members, it opposes same-sex marriage, promotes anti-immigration stances, and has faced accusations of homophobia and disrupting events involving non-heterosexual individuals. Civitas had received public funding but is now targeted for dissolution due to its anti-Semitic stance. (“France moves to ban far-right party for anti-Semitism,” Le Monde, 07 August 2023)
 
THE UK
University students face graduation delays amid an ongoing labor dispute
On 07 August, Associated Press reported, thousands of UK university students, including Hafsa Yusuf, facing graduation delays due to ongoing labor disputes. Around 140 universities are affected, with staff refusing to mark papers over pay and work condition disagreements. Many students who paid for graduation-related expenses are now in vain. The University and College Union estimates tens of thousands would not graduate this summer, impacting job offers and visa applications for international students. Graduates are criticizing university leaders for not negotiating to end the dispute. Some are even considering legal action for breach of contract. Students feel disillusioned after COVID disruptions and high fees. (Sylvia Hui, “Lecturers in the UK refuse to mark exams in labor dispute, leaving thousands unable to graduate,” Associated Press, 07 August 2023)

TURKEY
Southern Turkey struggles to recover from earthquakes
On 07 August, BBC reported that six months after twin earthquakes struck southern Turkey, Antakya remains in disrepair. Thousands still live in makeshift tents and containers. Reconstruction has been slow, with estimated costs of USD 105 billion for 11 provinces. Despite President Erdogan's one-year deadline, the rehabilitation process is expected to take longer. Some projects are underway, like new apartment blocks north of Antakya, with a school, health center, and playground. However, many continue to wait for permanent housing, facing challenges like safe drinking water. The region's recovery efforts emphasize the need for national and international aid. (Victoria Craig, “Families in Turkey's quake cities battle dust and rubble six months on,” BBC, 07 August 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Multinational effort combats Cyprus wildfires
On 07 August, Associated Press reported that a multinational force including firefighting aircraft and ground crews from Israel, Lebanon, Greece, and Jordan is assisting Cyprus in battling a stubborn wildfire that has burned about 3.2 square miles of land. The fire was mostly contained overnight but rekindled in some areas, prompting continued air and ground efforts. The cause of the rekindling is being investigated, with officials downplaying arson suspicions due to strong winds. Villagers have returned home after evacuating as a precaution. (Menelaos Hadjicostis, “Multinational force fights stubborn wildfire in Cyprus, including Lebanon, Greece and Jordan,” Associated Press, 07 August 2023)
 
EU and NATO rush aid to flood-hit Slovenia
On 07 August, Associated Press reported that Slovenia receives urgent aid from the EU and NATO following severe flooding that killed at least six people and displaced hundreds. France, Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, and even Ukraine offer support, including helicopters, bridges, and engineering teams. The flooding, triggered by heavy rains, submerged villages, fields, and towns, while extreme weather across Europe is linked to climate change. The EU activated its Civil Protection Mechanism for both Slovenia and Cyprus due to floods and wildfires. NATO expresses solidarity with Slovenia. (“NATO and the EU send aid to Slovenia after floods that killed at least 6 and left many homeless,” Associated Press, 07 August 2023)
 
Poland accuses Russia and Belarus of orchestrating migrant influx at EU border
On 07 August, Deutsche Welle reported that Poland alleges that Russia and Belarus' secret services are coordinating a surge of migrants across the Polish border into the EU. Maciej Wasik, Poland’s Deputy Interior Minister cites intensifying operations by these agencies. The Polish border guard requests 1,000 more troops due to the alleged involvement of Belarusian authorities. Tomasz Praga, Poland’s border guard chief claims Belarus’s secret services have turned into a criminal group profiting from illegal immigration. About 19,000 attempted entries in 2023, up from 16,000 last year, prompting deployment of 5,000 guards and 2,000 soldiers. (“Poland says Belarus, Russia behind new migrant influx,” Deutsche Welle, 07 August 2023)
 
Solar power mitigates heatwave shortages
On 07 August, Euronews reported that solar power surge in southern Europe is helping to alleviate energy shortages caused by record-breaking temperatures and increased demand for cooling during heatwaves. Spain and Greece have significantly increased their solar capacity, with solar energy providing nearly 24 per cent of Spain's electricity in July. Solar output in Sicily covered almost half of the excess power demand during peak demand. Despite low power demand due to high energy prices and climate change mitigation efforts, experts emphasize the need to invest in energy grids and storage to ensure solar growth meets climate goals as heatwaves intensify in the future. (“Heatwave energy shortages would have been ‘much worse’ without solar power, experts say,” Euronews, 07 August 2023)


02 August 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #584

War in Ukraine: Day 524

Greece-Turkey to improve political ties; UK establishes its first postal drone delivery service

Photo : Dmitry Yagodkin/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 524
By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 01 August, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine updated on the developments in war. According to the report a missile strike and 49 air strikes, along with 33 rocket salvo fire strikes on our troops and civilians, resulting in casualties. 

On 01 August, OHCHR released a report on the civilian casualties in Ukraine. The report found 748 civilian casualties in Ukraine since the invasion. In total, recorded casualties are 9,369 killed and 16,646 injured. Explosive weapons caused 96 per cent of the deaths and injuries, while mines and remnants of war accounted for four per cent. 

On 01 August, Ukrinform reported on Russia's shelling in Kherson. According to the report, a health facility was struck, resulting in the death of a young doctor and injury to a nurse. The attack caused damage to the hospital and nearby cars. A pre-trial investigation has been launched for the violation of laws and customs of war. 

On 01 August, All Arab news reported on that Saudi Arabia will host a peace summit in August with Ukraine, involving countries from the west and the global south, to discuss Ukraine's peace formula. The summit aims to gain international support for Ukraine's peace demands, without an invite to Russia. The initiative may help Saudi Arabia gain diplomacy over the Moscow invasion and woo global south countries, resistant to western sanctions on Russia. 

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 01 August, RT news reported about Ukraine's maritime drone attacks. It reports that Ukraine’s maritime drones attempts to attack Russia’s civilian vessels heading to the Bosporus Strait in the Black Sea but Russia’s navy escort ships intercepts and destroys them, as announced by the Defence Ministry. The Kyiv regime is accused of attempting an attack using three semi-submersible unmanned boats. 

On 01 August, RT news reported on the attempt by Ukraine’s Navy to attack Russia’s patrol vessels in the Black Sea. It reports that the Ukraines' Navy's attack using three unmanned boats failed, and the targeted ships continues their operations, according to the Russia’s Defence Ministry. The maritime drones are destroyed by the Russia’s Navy. The Russia’s Defence Minister accuses Ukraine of using civilian infrastructure attacks as a distraction from their unsuccessful offensive. 

On 01 August, RT news reported on another Ukraine’s drone attacks on Moscow’s financial district. Several UAVs intercepts on their approach to the district, but one manages to hit a high-rise in Moscow City, damaging the building's facade. The Russia’s Defence Ministry states that three drones were involved, with two destroyed in mid-air and the third suppressed by electronic warfare systems, crashing into a non-residential complex. 

On 01 August, TASS reported that approximately 80 rounds of munitions, along with explosives drops from drones, were fired by Ukraine’s armed forces on populated areas in Russia's Belgorod region. The attacks damages eight houses, a car, and a power line in multiple villages, including Novopetrovka and Verigovka. Rzhevka also experiences artillery shelling, damaging three private residences and a power line. The villages of Novaya Tavolzhanka and Maryino are hit by mortar shells, while the Shebekino border-crossing point faces shelling from mortars and a grenade launcher.

On 01 August, TASS reported that Russia’s air defence forces intercepts 16 HIMARS rockets and shot down 21 Ukraine’s drones in the ongoing military operation in Ukraine, according to the Defence Ministry. Ukraine’s forces attempts attacks in five directions, with Russia’s troops advancing in the Kupyansk area and inflicting heavy losses on Ukraine’s troops in various regions. They also destroy a counter-battery radar station and an ammunition depot. 

On 01 August, TASS reported that the EU urges Russia not to use drone attacks in Moscow as a pretext for escalating hostilities in Ukraine. The EU has no independent information about the drones' origin. Equipment provided to Ukraine by EU member states can only be used for its defence, and Ukraine has the right to protect its sovereignty. The Russia’s Defence Ministry says two drones came from Ukraine, but there is no official confirmation.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 01 August, Financial Times reported that the Biden administration aims to supply more 155 millimetre shells to Ukraine amid the counteroffensive against Russia’s forces. The US will seek international allies' help in the short term and plans to increase domestic production in the next two years. Deals with Bulgaria and South Korea have been struck, and talks with Japan are ongoing. 

On 01 August, Iceland’s Foreign Ministry reported that the Embassy of Iceland in Moscow suspends its operations. The Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Iceland will now handle the representation of countries previously covered by the embassy, including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The decision is not a diplomatic relations severance, and Iceland intends to resume embassy operations when conditions permit. 

On 01 August, Service of the Republic of Poland reported that two Belarusian helicopters violates Polish airspace near the Białowieża area at a low altitude, undetected by radar systems. The Polish Minister of National Defence orders increased troops and resources on the border, including combat helicopters. Belarus's charge d'affaires will be summoned to explain the incident. 

References
Operational information as of 18.00 01.08.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 01 August 2023
UN updates data: 9,369 Ukrainians killed, 16,646 injured in war with Russia,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2023
Health facility hit as Russians shell Kherson,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2023
Attack on Kryvyi Rih: Number of injured exceeds 80,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2023
Kiev attempts 'terror attack' on Russian civilian ships – MOD,” RT, 01 August 2023
Russian Navy rebuffs Ukrainian drone attack – MOD,” RT, 01 August 2023
Ukrainian drone hits Moscow’s financial hub – mayor,” RT, 01 August 2023
Ukrainian troops fire some 80 rounds on Russia’s borderline Belgorod Region in past day,” TASS, 01 August
2023
Russian forces repel eight Ukrainian army attacks in Donetsk area over past day,” TASS, 01 August 2023
EU urges Russia not to intensify special military operation over Moscow drone attacks,” TASS, 01 August 2023
Felicia Schwartz and Christopher Miller, “
US faces hurdles in ramping up munitions supplies for Ukraine war effort,” Financial Times, 01 August 2023
Embassy operations of Iceland in Moscow suspended,” government.is, 01 August 2023
Statement of the Ministry of National Defense regarding clarification of the current situation on the Polish-Belarusian border,” gov.pl, 01 August 2023
Saudi Arabia to host Ukraine peace talks in early August, Russia not invited,” All Arab news, 01 August 2023


IN BRIEF
By Genesy Balasingam

BOSINIA-HERZEGOVINA
Sanctions imposed on Serb officials for violating constitutional court decision
On 01 August, the US imposed sanctions on four ranking Bosnian Serb officials for undermining a 1995 peace agreement which threatens the country's successful integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions.” The four officials sanctioned by the US Treasury are alleged to have taken part in drafting a law that undermines the unity of Bosnia by ignoring the decisions of the country’s constitutional court. The US also imposed sanctions on the pro-Russian head of Serbia’s security agency for involvement in illegal arms shipments, drug trafficking and misuse of public office. There is fear that Serbia would inflame tensions in the Balkans to divert the world's attention from the war in Ukraine. (“4 separatist Bosnian Serb leaders are sanctioned by US Treasury for undermining a 1995 peace deal,” Associated Press, 01 August 2023)

GEORGIA
Protestors propelled Russian cruise ship
On 01 August, Russian cruise ship Astoria Grande left the Black Sea port of Batumi after anti-war demonstrators threw eggs and called for its passengers to leave. Georgia is courting Russian tourists, but protesters and opposition parties object to Russia's occupation of Georgian territory and to its invasion of Ukraine. The ship hosted singers who have backed the war in Ukraine. As the tourists disembarked, protesters waved Georgian, Ukrainian and EU flags and chanted anti-Putin slogans. Pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili praised the protesters for challenging the "latest Russian provocation", after Russia suspended a deal allowing Ukraine's grain shipments and prevented free movement of shipping in the Black Sea. (Paul Kirby, “Russian cruise ship leaves Batumi after Georgian protests,” BBC, 01 August 2023)

GREECE
Greece-Turkey to improve political ties
On 01 August, Greece’s prime minister expressed his willingness to improve political and bilateral relations with Turkey. Greece and Turkey remain at odds over maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean which has affected irregular migration into the EU, mineral rights and the projection of military power. During a NATO summit in Vilnius, Prime Minister of the Hellenic Republic Mitsotakis and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to initiate new lines of communication.(“Greek prime minister seeks improved relations with Turkey but says Ankara must drop aggression,” Associated Press, 1 August 2023)

ITALY
Venice added to UNESCO’s endangered list 
On 01 August, the UN's cultural agency suggested that Venice should be added to a list of world heritage sites in danger. The iconic Italian city is vulnerable to flooding from overwhelming tourism, overdevelopment and rising sea levels due to climate change. The inclusion of Venice in the danger list had already been proposed by UNESCO two years ago. One of those measures was the decision to ban large ships - such as cruise ships - in the San Marco Canal, as well as the promise to launch an ambitious conservation plan for the city. Australia's Great Barrier Reef didn't make it on to this year's list despite remaining under "serious threat" from climate change and water pollution. (Sofia Bettiza, “Unesco recommends adding Venice to endangered list,” BBC, 01 August 2023)

THE UK
UK establishes its first postal drone delivery service 
On 01 August, the UK launched its first permanent postal drone delivery service on the Orkney Islands off the coast of Scotland. The drone will transport items to staff on Graemsay and Hoy allowing postal workers to carry out their usual island delivery routes. Royal Mail remains a critical part of keeping the isles connected - and local knowledge and care are vital to that network.  As weather and geography can disrupt delivery services, the drone service is expected to significantly improve service levels and delivery times to Graemsay and Hoy. The Royal Mail claims that using electric drones for inter-island distribution will significantly increase safety by allowing postal workers to transport between ports. This service will initially operate for three months and its permanency will be decided based on Orkney's unique landscape and the proximity of the islands to one another. (“UK’s Royal Mail launches its first permanent postal drone delivery service,” Euronews, 01 August 2023)

ECONOMY
Companies targeting less emissions amidst sharp fall in profits
On 01 August, Oil giant BP reported a steep fall in profits between April and June after energy prices fell back from spikes caused by Russia's war with Ukraine. Wholesale oil and gas prices have fallen back sharply since last year. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced plans to extract more fossil fuel from the North Sea when he said the government would grant 100 new oil and gas license's for the region. BP had previously promised that emissions would be 35-40 percent lower by the end of this decade but now it's targeting a 20-30 percent cut. (Noor Nanji & Jennifer Meierhans, “BP profits drop after Russia-Ukraine war windfall fades,” BBC, 01 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Evacuees from Niger land in Paris 
On 01 August, the first of three planes carrying 262 people on board mostly French and European people evacuated from Niger landed in Paris a week after a coup toppled one of the last pro-Western leaders in the jihadist-plagued Sahel. The third military takeover in the region has raised security concerns in France. Niger has accused France of organising a military intervention, and Paris has announced that it will withdraw its citizens and offer to evacuate other Europeans as well. Paris blamed the departure on violence against our embassy and the fear of closure of the airspace, leaving our compatriots without the ability to leave. The Niger junta, on the other hand, announced the restoration of the country's land and air borders with five neighbouring countries. (“French plane carrying evacuees from Niger lands in Paris,” Le Monde, 01 August 2023)


29 July 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #581

War in Ukraine: Day 521

Photo : AP / Alexander Ryumin


War in Ukraine: Day 521

War on the Ground
On 29 July, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister wrote on Telegram that Ukraine’s forces are advancing in southern Bakhmut. She noted that Russia’s forces failed to advance in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Avdiivsky and Marinskyy despite the intense fighting they put up with Ukraine’s forces. Additionally, Ukraine’s forces are making gradual advances in Berdyansk and Melitopol.

On 29 July, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine added on Facebook that in Volyn and Polike, the operational situation remains unchanged. In Shakhtarsky, Russia’s forces have carried out airstrikes and shelling in Makarivka, Staromayorske, Odradne, Blagodatne, and Rivnopil. In Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Russia’s forces are concentrated on thwarting the advances of Ukraine’s troops.

On 29 July, Deutsche Welle reported on a Russian missile strike in Dnipro that wounded nine residents in a residential complex. According to Serhiy Lysak, Regional Governor, there were two hits by Iskander missiles.

On 29 July, Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA’s Director General stated that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) completed the planned transition of its reactor unit five to cold shut down and moved reactor unit 4 to hot shut down. Grossi again stressed the importance of adhering to the five basic principles established on 30 May in UNSC to protect the plant from any attacks whatsoever that could trigger a nuclear accident.

On 29 July, president.gov.ua reported that Andriy Yermark, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine had a phone call with Celso Amorim, Chief Advisor to the President of the Federal Republic of Brazil. The office-bearers discussed the preparation of another meeting of national security advisors regarding the implementation of Ukraine’s initiatives to peace based on the UN Charter and International Law.


The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 July, Business Day reported that Russia has signed several agreements for military cooperation with more than 40 African countries. The agreements would include provisions enabling the supply of a broad range of armaments and hardware to African countries. The representatives of those countries have been also invited to actively participate in Russia-organized military forums that deal with the technical aspects of the weapons and their manoeuvres. Putin assured that Russia would continue to be a reliable supplier of grain to the countries of the continent. He promised to provide free grain (25,000 o 50,000 tons) to Zimbabwe, Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Eritrea and the Central African Republic in the next three to four months.

On 29 July, according to Arab News, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, speaking at a press conference said that Russia did not reject talks on Ukraine and African Peace Initiative including the Chinese initiative could serve as a basis for peace. He added that it is difficult to implement a cease-fire while Ukraine’s forces are on the offensive and that there are no significant changes or intensification of actions on its side.

On 29 July, Putin said that Russia is “always ready for any scenario” while commenting on a potential confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. Pointing at the existing conflict-prevention lines he said that nobody wants a direct conflict scenario. Russia’s military has reported a total of 23 incidents involving aircraft of Russia and the US-led coalition since early 2023. According to RT, Admiral Oleg Gurinov, the head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, most incidents took place in July.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 29 June, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State said that according to Washington, Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Defence Minister is in North Korea to secure weapons to support its invasion of Ukraine. According to Deutsche Welle, Pyongyang’s state media called the visit and the meeting a “friendly talk.” 

On 29 July, Deutsche Welle quoting Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia is planning to host talks soon to discuss the path to achieve peace in Ukraine. The meeting would take place in Jeddah and is expected to be attended by delegations from Ukraine, Western powers and a few developing countries. Russia would not attend the meeting.

On 29 June, Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, said that Wagner group fighters were observed to be approaching Poland’s border with Belarus. They are likely to help migrants enter the borders in an attempt to destabilize the country as elections are around the corner. He said that more than 100 fighters have advanced towards Suwalki Gap, a strategic corridor separating Belarus from Kaliningrad not far from Grodno in Belarus (about 15 kilometres from the borders of Poland and Lithuania). According to Deutsche Welle, if Russia or Wagner group take control of the area it would cut off Baltic states from the EU.

References
Hanna Maliar, “EAST,” Telegram, 29 July 2023
Operational information as of 18.00 on 29.07.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 29 July 2023
Ukraine updates: Russian missile wounds several in Dnipro,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
Putin says Russia does not reject talks with Ukraine,” Arab News, 29 July 2023
Russia signs military deals with 40 African states, Putin says,’ Business Day, 31 July 2023
Russia is ready for confrontation with NATO – Putin,” RT News, 29 July 2023
US says Russian defense minister looking for weapons in North Korea,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
Saudi Arabia to reportedly host Ukraine peace talks,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
Poland says Wagner troops approaching border,’ Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
Andriy Yermak had a phone call with Chief Advisor to President of Brazil,” presient.gov.ua, 29 July 2023


26 July 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #578

War in Ukraine: Day 516

Eight people guilty of murder in the 2016 Brussels terror attacks; Fuel EU maritime to control emission of GHG from maritime sector; 84 sub–Saharan Africa migrants rescued

Photo : Anadolu Agency


War in Ukraine: Day 516
By Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 25 July, Ukrinform reported on the statement made by Andriy Yusov, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence representative on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. He stated that there was no technical need for a "hot shutdown" of the plant’s unit four, calling it a violation of safety standards and Ukraine’s nuclear law. He believes its used for nuclear blackmail and poses a man-made disaster risk. IAEA experts have limited access, and anti-personnel mines were found at internal side and not in the interior perimeter of the plant. 
 
On 24 July, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that directional anti-personnel mines were observed near Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on the outer periphery. The mines are situated in a restricted area controlled by the military, facing away from the site and not accessible to operating plant personnel. The IAEA expressed concern over the presence of explosives on the site, though it clarified that the initial assessment indicates no impact on nuclear safety and security systems. 
 
On 25 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President addresses crucial matters concerning the nation's defence and international relations. He expresses gratitude for the support received from the US, including artillery, missiles, and drones. Discussions with the UK focuses on enhancing air defence in the southern regions, particularly Odesa. Preparations for the Ukraine-NATO Council meeting are underway, with a focus on Black Sea security and grain exports.
 
On 25 July, Ukrinform reported that Ukraine’s air defences successfully intercepts all kamikaze drones used by Russia to attack Kyiv. The air defence forces promptly detects and destroys the drones before any casualties or damage occurred. The Iranian-made Shahed loitering munitions are reported to be used in the sixth drone attack on the capital in July.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 25 July, The Moscow Times reported on Russia’s parliament members passing of a bill to increase the age limit for military conscription and ban draftees from leaving the country. The new law will be effective from January 2024 requires men aged 18 to 30 to serve in the military. This move aims at expanding the pool of potential recruits for the war in Ukraine. The bill aims to conscript approximately 147,000 soldiers, matching the number enlisted during the spring conscription campaign. The lower age limit remains at 18, and recruited men will be prohibited from leaving Russia to crack down on draft dodging. The bill is yet to be signed by Putin and approved by the Federation Council.

On 25 July, The Moscow Times reported that tensions escalate, in the Black Sea, as Russia thwarted a Ukraine’s armed forces' drone attack on its patrol boat. The Russia’s defence ministry reports that the Sergei Kotov patrol ship destroyed the naval drones around one kilometre away, with no injuries reported. The incident occurs after Moscow withdrew from a deal safeguarding Ukraine’s grain shipments, leading to warnings of targeting ships near Ukraine’s ports. The region witnesses increased attacks amid Kyiv's counteroffensive.
 
On 25 July, TASS reported that Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson states that returning to the grain deal is impossible as Russia's conditions have not been met. Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General proposes extending the Black Sea initiative, but Peskov emphasizes that Russia is ready to resume the deal once it’s part of the agreement is fulfilled. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 25 July, the US Department of Defence announced additional security assistance valued at up to USD 400 million to fulfill Ukraine's critical security and defence needs. This marks the Biden administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment for Ukraine since August 2021. The capabilities provided range from Patriot and NASAMS munitions to Stinger anti-aircraft systems, HIMARS ammunition, Stryker APCs, Javelin anti-armour systems, and more.
 
On 25 July, in a statement to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Neil Holland, UK’s ambassador condemns Russia's abhorrent attacks on Odesa's civilian, cultural, and religious sites, including the Transfiguration Cathedral and the UNESCO-listed town centre. These missile strikes violate international conventions and are part of Russia's deliberate efforts to hinder Ukraine’s grain exports and threaten global food security. The attacks aim to prevent up to 24 million tonnes of grain from reaching markets and those in need, particularly in Africa. The UK reaffirms its support for Ukraine in facing Russia's aggression.
 
On 25 July, New York Post reported that Trevor Reed, a former US Marine, released from Russia 15 months ago in a prisoner swap, has been injured while fighting in Ukraine, as confirmed by the Pentagon. He was wounded several weeks ago and transported to a hospital in Kyiv before being moved to Germany for further treatment by a non-governmental organization. The extent and location of his injuries have not been disclosed. The Pentagon emphasizes that Reed was acting as a private citizen and not on behalf of the US government when he traveled to Ukraine to join the fight against Russia. The US government has warned citizens against traveling to Ukraine for combat. Reed was arrested in Russia in 2019 and later sentenced to nine years in prison for allegedly assaulting a cop. He was exchanged for a Russia’s pilot in April 2022.
 
On 25 July, the EU and Norway signed a transfer agreement for a voluntary financial contribution of NOK 250 million to supply military equipment. This includes ammunition and spare parts for tanks, to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility (EPF). It will be Norway's second contribution to the EPF, bringing their total support to NOK 400 million. This agreement formalizes Norway's commitment to supporting Ukraine's freedom and sovereignty.

On 25 July, Euronews reported that five eastern European countries, including Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, are demanding the extension of temporary bans on Ukraine’s grain imports into the EU until year-end, despite the EU's previous commitment to phase them out by 15 September. The bans allow transit but prohibit storage or domestic consumption in the Eastern countries. Lithuania proposes reinforcing the Baltic route for Ukraine’s products. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea corridor and attack Ukraine’s grain terminals prompted the renewed debate. The Black Sea deal's collapse disrupted global supply chains and raised commodity prices. The EU's "solidarity lanes" face scrutiny, with tensions over the influx of low-cost Ukraine’s cereals.
 
On 25 July, Deutsche Welle reported that German Members of European Parliament (MEPs) from different parties are urging the EU to support Russia’s seeking refuge from war conscription. In a joint letter to EU leaders, they call for consultations on visa policies and asylum procedures to protect Russia’s conscientious objectors. As of April 2023, 2,485 male Russians between 18 and 45 have applied for asylum in Germany, with 55 applicants granted asylum and 88 refused. The Dublin Regulation determines the responsible EU country for processing asylum applications.

References
"Hot shutdown" of ZNPP block needed for Russians only for blackmail - DIU,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2023
When our people do everything possible and impossible for victory, any internal treason causes rage - address of the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 25 July 2023
Drone attack: Ukrainian air defenses destroy all targets near Kyiv,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2023
Russian Lawmakers Approve Bill Raising Maximum Draft Age,” The Moscow Times, 25 July 2023 
Russia Says Thwarted Naval Drone Attack Against Black Sea Patrol Boat,” The Moscow Times, 25 July 2023
Kremlin rules out return to grain deal at present moment,” TASS, 25 July 2023
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine,” Defense.gov, 25 July 2023
Russia’s attacks on Odesa are abhorrent: UK Statement to the OSCE,” Gov.uk, 25 July 2023
Snejana Farberov, “Ex-Marine Trevor Reed freed from Russia in prisoner swap is wounded in Ukraine,” The New York Post, 25 July 2023
Norway: second Norwegian financial contribution to the European Peace Facility,” consilium.europa.eu, 25 July 2023
Jorge Loborerio, “Eastern European countries push for bans on Ukrainian grain to be extended until end of year,” Euronews, 25 July 2023
German MEPs urge EU support for Russian draft dodgers,” Deutsche Welle, 25 July 2023
Update 175 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” IAEA.org, 24 July 2023


In Brief
By Genesy Balasingam

BELGIUM
Eight found guilty in the 2016 Brussels terror attack trial
On 25 July, a Brussels court found eight people guilty of murder in the 2016 Brussels terror attacks that killed 32 and injured more than 300. Salah Abdeslam, one of the eight, is already receiving a life sentence for his role in the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks. In March 2016, bombers attacked the Maelbeek metro station in the EU Quarter and Brussels airport. The ruling concludes the first phase of the trial, which began in November 2022. Sentences will be assessed under Belgian law in a second phase of the trial, which begins on 04 September. Two individuals, a Tunisian and a Rwandan, were acquitted of murder but convicted of terrorist actions alongside the other six. Smail and Ibrahim Farisi, the final couple, were acquitted of all charges. ( Nicolas Camut, “8 men found guilty of 2016 Brussels terrorist attacks,” Politico, 25 July 2023; Paul Kirby, “Brussels bombers found guilty after long murder trial,” BBC, 25 July 2023)

FINLAND
Government to resume service supporting Greece to control wildfires
On 25 July, Finland has sent 48 rescue professionals to Portugal to assist with wildfire management. The rescue service employees who will be deployed to Portugal will be employed by the Emergency Services Academy Finland. In addition, rescue workers will be dispatched to Greece and France. One of the deployment's goals is to develop expertise and knowledge of the various tactics, techniques, and equipment used to control wildfires. The rescuers will depart in two groups to Portugal. (Ministry of the Interior, “Finland prepares to send international civil protection experts to fight wildfires in Portugal,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 25 July 2023)
 
SPAIN
84 sub–Saharan Africa migrants rescued
On 25 July, Spain's maritime rescue service rescued a boat 8.5 nautical miles (15.7 km) from the island of Gran Canaria carrying 84 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, one of whom had died.The Canary Islands off the coast of West Africa have become the main destination for migrants trying to reach Spain. The boat was located and the migrants were taken to Arguineguin port at around 5 am local time (0400 GMT). The Atlantic migration route, one of the deadliest in the world, is typically used by migrants from sub-Saharan Africa attempting to reach Europe.Spanish government data reported a 31.5 per cent drop of migrants compared with the same period last year and around 41 per cent of them arrived in just one month between May and June. (Borja Suarez,”Spain rescues boat with 84 migrants, one dead,” Reuters, 25 July 2023)

REGIONAL
EU adopts new regulation to control emission of GHG from maritime sector
On 25 July, a new regulation called 'FuelEU maritime' was introduced by the Council to lower the carbon footprint of the EU's maritime industry. The regulation aims to enhance transparent mechanisms for ship operators and fuel producers. It will help kick-start large-scale production of sustainable maritime fuels, thereby significantly delivering on our European and global climate commitments. This initiative is a key component of the EU's Fit for 55 package and it aims to increase demand for and consistent use of renewable and low-carbon fuels. It is also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping sector, while ensuring the smooth operation of maritime traffic and avoiding market distortions. (FuelEU maritime initiative: Council adopts new law to decarbonise the maritime sector,” consilium.europa.eu, 25 July 2023)

ECONOMY
Germany faces backlash by environmental organisations
On 25 July, Environmental organisations slammed Germany's revised policy on export credit guarantees. Berlin attempted to strike a balance between climate protection and energy security. Germany encourages exports by providing assurances for nonpayment due to economic and political circumstances, assisting enterprises in obtaining political support for their initiatives and better financing terms. These guidelines divide future projects into three categories: positive green projects that contribute to achieving climate targets and are eligible for government support, neutral white projects that do not contribute significantly to climate goals but still receive support, and climate-damaging red projects that are not eligible for such guarantees. The plan sparked harsh criticism since it violated Germany's international pledge to stop public subsidies for fossil fuels by the end of the decade. The guidelines are to come into effect in the fourth quarter of 2023 and need to be deemed necessary for national security and to be compatible with achieving the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Riham Alkousaa, “Germany's plan for credit guarantees violates climate commitments - environmentalists,” Reuters, 25 July 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
James to focus on boost partnership between the UK and Middle East
On 25 July, James Cleverly, UKs Foreign Secretary will travel to Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan on a three-day tour to emphasise the UK’s growing partnership with the region – with Gulf countries as they are energy, defence and security partners. This trip explores various opportunities to strengthen cooperation and economy between the countries. Representatives from UNHCR (the UN’s refugee agency) and the World Food Programme are also set to meet the foreign minister to discuss and announce UK’s funding to support women and girls and to help the most vulnerable refugees in Jordan. (“Foreign Secretary travels to Middle East to build mutually beneficial ties,” Gov.UK, 25 July 2023)


25 July 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #577

Third EU-CELAC Summit: Three Takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 515

Photo : consilium.europa.eu


Third EU-CELAC Summit: Three Takeaways
By Sneha Surendran  

On 17 and 18 July, leaders of the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), after a gap of eight years, convened in Brussels for their third summit. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, welcomed the CELAC leaders, stating that Europe wanted to be “the partner of choice for Latin America and the Caribbean.” 

The summit aimed to reaffirm ties between the member states, which was reflected in the theme for the event: “Renewing the bi-regional partnership to strengthen peace and sustainable development.” The discussions at the summit revolved around security, current geopolitics, climate, and trade, along with talks on Europe’s colonialism past, the transatlantic slave trade, and demands for economic reparations. 

Following are three major takeaways of the summit.

1. On the Ukraine War, CELAC refuses to criticize Russia
Charles Michel, President of the European Council, began his address by calling upon the participants to collectively condemn Russia for the “illegal war” it was waging on Ukraine. However, Ralph Gonsalves, President of CELAC and Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, responded: “…this summit ought not to become another unhelpful battleground for discourses on this matter, which has been and continues to be addressed in other more relevant forums.”

The LAC states have largely stayed out of the war. Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua are Russian allies, with Cuba being a long-time partner to the Kremlin. While the EU leaders tried to lobby support for Ukraine at the summit, CELAC refused to call out Russia. At the end of the summit, the leaders signed a declaration. While Nicaragua refused to assent to the document citing a reference to the Ukraine war, the declaration also did not call out Russia as the aggressor of the war.  

2. EU’s attempt to reduce economic reliance on China
The increased assertiveness of China globally has led to the EU looking to decrease its economic reliance on China, shifting focus to the resource-rich LAC region. China has also made inroads into the LAC and is their second major trade partner, after the United States. Meanwhile, the EU also has a strong economic presence in Latin America and the Caribbean as their biggest investor.

At the summit, von der Leyen promised GBP 45 billion for the EU’s Global Gateway Program for infrastructural development in the LAC region. The Global Gateway Program has been touted as the counterplan to China’s Belt and Road initiative. While the EU made commitments, CELAC stressed that projects would be based on a mutually beneficial transaction, refusing to be used as a source for the exploitation of raw materials. Alberto Fernández, Argentina's President expressed happiness at the discussion, saying: “This was the first time that we had the opportunity to discuss in such clear terms a mechanism that would take us away from extractivism in Latin America.” However, there were no breakthroughs on the stalled EU-Mercosur trade deal, although leaders agreed to finalize it soon. 

3. The focus on slave trade and the colonial history
Dialogue on the historical transatlantic slave trade and Europe’s past as a colonizer was a priority for leaders of the CELAC. Gonsalves called for talks on reparations for the colonization and enslavement in the LAC region, stating: “Resources from the slave trade and from slavery helped to fuel the industrial revolution that has laid the basis for a lot of the wealth within Western Europe.” He also pointed to the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, France, and Britain as the “main colonial powers.”

EU leaders at the summit agreed to their colonial past and the profits that Europe reaped from this exploitation. Furthermore, this was included in the final declaration that read: “We acknowledge and profoundly regret the untold suffering inflicted on millions of men, women and children as a result of the transatlantic slave trade” although it did not bind Europe to making reparations to the LAC states. 


War in Ukraine: Day 515
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 24 July, Ukrinfrom reported that heavy battles are continuing in Bakhmut, in the settlements of Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Kurdiumivka. According to Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, Bakhmut is the “main theatre of action in the east.” She added that Ukraine’s forces had advanced in the southern up to four square kilometres in last week. In the northern part, no change in battle positions was reported. She said that in Bakhmut, Russian forces had been trapped with limited manoeuvrability due to Ukraine’s forces. In southern Ukraine, offensive actions are reportedly underway in Melitopol and Berdiansk. According to the report in Reuters, Russian troops still hold sizeable territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. Over the past 24 hours, 35 combat clashes were reported in eastern Ukraine.
 
On 24 July, Ukrinform reported that Russian forces continued to attack Odesa, launching an overnight four-hour attack involving Shahed-Kamikaze drones damaging the port infrastructure on the Danube. According to the report, Ukraine’s air defence forces destroyed three drones. A grain hangar and several tanks used for storing other cargoes were damaged in the attacks.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 24 July, Ukrinform reported on the drone attacks in Moscow that damaged a building near the Ministry of Defence headquarters. According to Sergey Sobyanin, Moscow’s mayor, the drone strikes were on two non-residential buildings in the early morning. No serious damage or casualties were reported. According to RT, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, alleged that the drone attacks are an “act of international terrorism.”
 
On 24 July, Sergey Aksyonov, Russia-installed head of Crimea, announced that a Russian ammunition depot in the peninsula was hit in an overnight drone attack launched by Ukraine. The Defence Ministry said that the military had downed 17 drones using electronic signal defence systems and no casualties were reported.
 
On 24 July, Vladimir Putin, announced that Russia is ready to replace Ukraine’s grain exports to Africa. He said: “I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukraine’s grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis.”
 
On 24 June, Eurasia Review reported on Putin’s meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s President. According to the report, Lukashenko was quoted saying that the Wagner group engaged in training Belarus troops are keen to push into Poland across the border. Poland has been moving extra troops towards its border with Belarus since Wagner fighters arrived in Minsk. The meeting comes after Moscow warned that an attack on Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia and that it would use all means it has to retaliate against the hostility.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 23 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, announced that a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council expected to address Black Sea security has been scheduled for 26 July. According to Oanu Lungescu, NATO’s spokesperson, the meeting requested by Zelenskyy would discuss the situation following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. He also added that the meeting would take place at the level of ambassadors.
 
On 24 July, the Defence Ministry of Spain announced that four Leopard 2A4 tanks and other Ukraine-bound military and humanitarian aid have left for Poland. The shipment also included ten M–113 armoured personnel carriers, ten cargo trucks, an armoured multi-purpose vehicle and five ambulances. Margarita Robles, Spain’s Defence Minister, announced the supply of further military aid earlier in June 2023.
 
On 24 July, in a press briefing, Matthew Miller, US Department of State spokesperson, condemned Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the subsequent attacks on the port of Odesa. He said: “These vicious strikes further illustrate Russia’s willingness to use food as a weapon in its illegal war against Ukraine.”

References
Noisy night in Moscow as authorities report drone attack,” Ukrinform, 24 July 2023
Key battles taking place near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdiumivka in Bakhmut sector,” Ukrinform, 24 June 2023
Olena Harmash, “
Ukraine reports more advances in south, battles rage in east,” Reuters, 24 July 2023
Russian drones strike Danube port in Odesa region, destroying grain hangar,” Ukrinform, 24 July 2023
Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow is ‘international terrorism’ – Foreign Ministry,” RT News, 24 July 2023
Ammo depot in Crimea targeted by Ukrainian drones,” RT News, 24 July 2023
Wagner Troops In Belarus ‘Want To Go West’ Into Poland, Lukashenka Quips During Meeting With Putin,” eurasiareview, 24 July 2023
Putin says Russia will replace Ukrainian grain supplies to Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 24 July 2023
Meeting with Putin, hot conference call, prosecutor's report, port logistics in President's Week,” eng.belta.by, 24 July 2023
Elaine Monghan and Nick Zieminski, “
NATO-Ukraine Council meets Wednesday, Zelenskiy says,” Reuters, 24 July 2023
Martin Fornuesk, “
Spain says 4 Leopard 2 tanks, 10 armored carriers en route to Ukraine,” The Kyiv Independent, 24 July 2023
Department Press Briefing – July 24, 2023,” state.gov, 24 July 2023


IN BRIEF 
By Genesy Balasingam

GREECE

19,000 moved as wildfires continue
On 23 July, firefighters worked all night to put out 82 flames across Greece without the assistance of night-time firefighting planes and helicopters. The most serious fire occurred on the Greek island of Rhodes. As wildfires raged for the sixth day on the island, 19,000 people were evacuated from various sites. According to the Ministry of Climate Change and Civil Protection, this was "The largest evacuation from a wildfire in the country." A support station has been set up at Rhodes International Airport for travelers who have misplaced their travel documents. The Meteorological Service has forecasted that temperatures can be in the low- to mid -30s Celsius. (Demetris Nellas, “Fire still blazing on the Greek island of Rhodes as dozens more erupt across the country,” American Press, 23 July 2023)

HUNGARY

Orban accuses Brussels of  LGBT+ Offensive
On 22 July, Viktor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister accused Brussels of leading an "LGBT+ offensive." The EU is rejecting the Christian heritage and organizing population exchanges through migration", the ultra-conservative leader declared at the Tusványos festival, in Transylvania, Romania, home to a large Hungarian community. The festival offers round-table discussions on major issues and intends to promote cross-border cooperation. However, the event has become one of the main forums for Orbán’s supporters to gather and exchange ideas.(“'LGBT+ offensive': Viktor Orban criticises EU at Transylvania festival,” Euronews, 22 July 2023)

THE UK

Government to ease climate regulatory policies
On 23 July, Politico reported that Tory’s surprise victory in an outer-London by-election assured voters that they want to soften bold policies to combat energy costs, climate change and pollution. The UK government had recently been under scrutiny regarding the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the UK by 2030. To achieve the target of eradicating the UK's net contribution to climate change by 2050, Grant Shapps Energy Secretary, suggested North Sea oil and natural-gas license's should be granted for all viable oilfields and gas fields, if it was consistent with the net-zero ambitions. City Hall is expected to explore new measures to lessen the policy's budgetary impact. (Annabelle Dickson, “Less of the ‘green crap’: UK politicians want to take edge off net-zero pain,” Politico, 23 July 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Quran row continuous to sever ties between Iraq and Sweden
On 22 July, the Iraqi government expelled Sweden's ambassador in Baghdad following the ongoing Quran row. Swedish officials evacuated its diplomatic personnel from Iraq to Stockholm for security reasons. Baghdad has halted work permits and ceased all business with Swedish companies. It has also raised concerns about Sweden's free speech legislation. Iran, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have all criticized Sweden over the Quran's defilement. (Nadine Yousif, “Iraq expels Swedish ambassador as Quran row escalates,” BBC, 22 July 2023)


22 July 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #575

War in Ukraine: Day 512 | High temperatures expected to continue in Greece

Photo : TASS/AFP


War in Ukraine: Day 512
By Sneha Surendran

War on the Ground
On 19 July, NPR reported that following Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative, concerns around food security have increased, particularly in food-insecure countries. Kenya termed Russia’s decision as a “stab in the back” while Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General said that it will have an impact on people in need everywhere. Grain prices have started changing since Russia’s withdrew. On 19 July, Moscow said that ships in the Black Sea going to Ukraine’s ports would be treated as transporting military supplies. 

On 21 July, a UN official said that reports of sea mines in the Black Sea were concerning and stated: “Threats regarding potential targeting of civilian vessels navigating in the Black Sea waters are unacceptable.” Meanwhile, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UN said that his government was negotiating means to deliver grain to people in need, stating: “We do not use grain as weaponized means of foreign policy or waging war.” Ukraine has issued alerts to ships en route to Russia-controlled ports. On 21 July, Russia promised to address the concerns of the African nations regarding the stoppage of grain supply at an upcoming summit.   

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 July, a bill that proposed raising the minimum age for military conscription from 18 to 21 in Russia kept the lower age limit unchanged. However, the upper age limit was increased from 27 to 30. Andrei Kartapolov, co-author of the bill and the chairman of the Defense Committee of the lower house justified this, stating: “We decided to keep the lower draft age limit at 18 years because a lot of young men want to serve at 18.” Once the bill is adopted, it will come into effect from the spring of 2024. 

On 21 July, Igor Girkin, a former KGB officer and a pro-war blogger in Russia was arrested by authorities. His criticism of the Russian state and military’s failings in Ukraine had been ongoing for some time. On 18 July, he reportedly condemned Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President in an online post, writing: “For 23 years, the country was led by a lowlife who managed to ‘blow dust in the eyes’ of a significant part of the population.” According to reports, he has been charged with “extremist activity.”

On 21 July, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President warned Poland that any conflict with Belarus would be taken as an attack against Russia. He said that Poland was looking to gain territory, stating: “It is well known that they also dream of the Belarusian lands.” The statements come after Poland moved to station troops at its eastern borders on 19 July, following the arrival of Wagner troops in Belarus. 

On 21 July, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that the navy held exercises including the “live firing of anti-ship cruise missiles at the target ship” in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. According to further statements, the navy also conducted exercises on isolating the area and detaining enemy ships. 

The West view
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 19 July, Poland decided to station military units at their eastern borders following the news regarding the arrival of Wagner troops in neighbouring Belarus. On 19 July, a video release showed Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s head, extending a welcome to his troops, saying that they would be training the Belarusian army but would not be involved in the Ukraine war anymore. On 20 July, Belarus’s Defence Ministry announced that its special forces were receiving trainnig from Wagner fighters close to the borders with Poland. A Polish official stated: “Training or joint exercises of the Belarusian army and the Wagner Group is undoubtedly a provocation.”

On 21 July, the White House National Security Advisor said that currently there is no involvement of the Wagner mercenary troops in Ukraine. On 19 July, a video of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s leader had shown him welcoming his troops to Belarus, stating that they would no longer be fighting the war in Ukraine. 

On 21 July, Bulgaria’s parliament agreed to dispatch around 100 armoured vehicles to Ukraine. The vehicles are Soviet-designed BTR armoured personnel carriers and have not been used yet. According to the official statement: “Bulgaria no longer needs this equipment, which can provide valuable support to Ukraine in its battle to preserve its independence and territorial integrity.” 

On 21 July, The Washington Post reported that Russia conducted naval exercises in the Black Sea and also attacked an agricultural facility in the port of Odessa, destroying stored grains. The UN Security Council convened on 21 July to deliberate on Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal. Here, the US Ambassador to the UN stated: “The United States has information that the Russian military may expand its targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian shipping” and raised an alert of possible mines in the Black Sea.

References
Andrew Connelly, “Russia's nixing of Ukraine grain deal deepens worries about global food supply,” NPR, 19 July 2023
Some will starve, many may die," U.N. warns after Russia pulls out of grain deal,” CBS News, 21 July
Russia Backtracks on Pledge to Raise Minimum Draft Age,” The Moscow Times, 21 July 2023
Mick Krever, Nathan Hodge, Olga Voitovych, Uliana Pavlova, Josh Pennington, “
Pro-war Russian blogger who called Putin a ‘lowlife’ arrested in Moscow,” CNN, 21 July 2023
Putin accuses Poland of having territorial ambitions in former Soviet Union,” Alarabiya News, 21 July 2023
Russian Navy Holds Live Fire 'Exercise' in Black Sea,” The Moscow Times, 21 July 2023
Poland to move soldiers to east of country due to Wagner risks, state news agency reports,” Reuters, 21 July 2023
Wagner is not fighting in Ukraine at present, says White House's Sullivan,” Reuters, 22 July 2023
Bulgaria to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine for the first time,” The Brussels Times, 22 July 2023
Kelsey Ables, Ellen Francis, Claire Parker, Mikhail Klimentov, “
Ukraine live briefing: Russia strikes Odessa amid Black Sea tensions; U.S. warns of plans to attack civilian shipping,” The Washington Post, 21 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Genesy Balasingam

REGIONAL
High temperatures expected to continue in Greece
On 22 July, meteorologists warned Greece about the soaring temperatures that could climb as high as 45C (113F).Warnings of very high new blazes across the country have been issued by emergencies and civil protection officials and people are advised to stay home.The worst-hit areas includes Western Attica , along with the island of Rhodes.Various firefighting planes from neighbouring Turkey, France and Italy and more than 200 firefighters from Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria have been sent in for help by EU partners. (“Europe heatwave: Temperatures to soar in Greece as fires still burn,” BBC, 22 July 2023)

Finland sent aid to Ukraine to vanquish water shortage
On 21 July,Finland reportedly has sent water purification materials, water containers, pumps and intensive chlorination units to Ukraine to help cope up with destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its side effects .In addition, Ukraine has been assisted with various other new shipments of water production materials,wastewater purification equipment, generators, ambulances and other vehicles, hospital beds for the protection of cultural heritage.(“Finland sends material assistance to ensure water supply in Ukraine,”Finish Government, valtioneuvosto.fi, 21 July 2023)

Iran and Sweden cut diplomatic ties due to Quran row
On 21 July, Stockholm apologised amid fears that Turkey would postpone lifting its Nato veto over the mutilation of a sacred book.Thousands of Muslims protested throughout Muslim-majority countries in response to a second incident involving the destruction of the Qur'an in Sweden.The incident left the Swedish government remorseful and fearful that the uproar in the Middle East will delay Turkey withdrawing its veto on Sweden's Nato membership.(Patrick Wintour, “Protests across Muslim nations after Sweden allows second attack on Qur’an,” The Guardian, 21 July 2023)

New Era ahead for UN says Guterres
On 21 July, Antonio Guterres UN secretary-General told the world’s nations that multipolar era has already been marked by the highest level of geopolitical tensions and major power competition in decades.Guterres introduced his “New Agenda for Peace'' as UNs attempt to address the new threats to diplomats. Guterres emphasised that the driving force for a new multilateralism must be diplomacy and reiterated the importance of preserving multilateralism. (“UN chief says the world is in a new era marked by the highest major power competition in decades,” Associated Press, 21 July 2023)


21 July 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #574

EM In Brief: New heatwave in Southern Europe

Photo : Planet Labs PBC via AP


IN BRIEF
By Genesy Balasingam

THE NETHERLANDS
Amsterdam to curb visitors to protect environment
On 21 July, the council of Amsterdam banned cruise ships from entering the city center in an effort to limit visitor numbers and reduce pollution. Politicians claimed the vessels were incompatible with the city's long-term goals. It is the latest move aimed at reducing mass tourism in the city. It will involve the closure of the primary cruise terminal on the River IJ near Amsterdam's main train station. The city government has been attempting to clean up the city by prohibiting cannabis smoking on the streets of the red-light district. Another important reason for withdrawing cruise ships is to reduce air pollution in Amsterdam. (Emily McGarvey & William Leonardo, “Amsterdam bans cruise ships to limit visitors and curb pollution,” BBC, 21 July 2023)

Green Deal chief steps down to run for Netherlands' 
On 20 July, Frans Timmermans, the architect of the EU's environmental policy exited from the European Commission to join Dutch national politics following the breakdown of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's coalition government in a migration row. Timmermans is expected to announce his candidature in Maastricht and is anticipated to run against two other contenders before a decision on the joint leadership candidate for the election is announced in mid-August. The EU Commission has lost its visionary genius of the Green Deal with Timmermans' departure. He worked valiantly against fossil-fuel lobbyists and opponents of European climate action and has accomplished a great deal. (Lisa O'Carroll, “EU climate chief Frans Timmermans quits to run in Dutch elections,” The Guardian, 20 July 2023)

THE UK
Conservatives face two major defeats in by-elections
On 21 July, the three results show the Conservatives losing support among a diverse group of people, including suburban Londoners, small-town inhabitants in the north of England, and rural residents in the southwest. With a similarly substantial swing away from the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats won the rural seat of Somerton and Frome in southwest England. The impact of Johnson's and Truss' rocky periods has dogged the right-of-center governing party. Truss resigned within weeks after her plan for unfunded tax cuts scared financial markets, deepening a cost-of-living problem and sending mortgage rates soaring. The two defeats also demonstrated that voters voted tactically, supporting the party most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate. This will be a concern for many Conservative lawmakers ahead of a national election. (Jill Lawless, Pan Pylas, “Sunak’s Conservatives suffer 2 big defeats but avoid a wipeout in trio of UK special elections,” Associated Press, 21 July 2023)

REGIONAL
EU proposes GBP 20 billion in military aid to Ukraine 
On 20 July, Josep Borrell, the European Union's foreign policy leader, presented a new proposal to offer “sustainable and predictable” military assistance to Ukraine. According to the plan, the EU will set aside GBP 20 billion over the next four years to partially compensate member states' supplies to the war-torn country. The funds will be used to purchase lethal and non-lethal equipment and it would be one of the security guarantees made by EU leaders to Ukraine. The GBP20 billion envelope must still be developed into a detailed proposal and discussed by member states. (Jorge Liboreiro, “EU pitches €20-billion plan in long-term military support for Ukraine,”  Euro news, 20 July 2023)

EU policy to improve circular economy in the automobile industry
On 20 July, The Federal Council reported on the European Commission’s proposal for a new End-of-Life Vehicles Directive that was updated to improve the automobile sector's circularity. The automobile industry consumes over 10% of the EU's plastic demand, and it is the largest consumer of raw materials such as aluminum, magnesium, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements. Inadequate vehicle handling results in lost value and pollution. This proposal aims to accelerate the transition of the automotive sector to a circular economy and enhance the recycling and reuse of CRM and other materials (such as rare earth elements, copper, and palladium) in new cars, spanning both the design and end-of-life phases. (“New EU policy measures based on Empa research: Boosting circular economy in the automotive sector,” The Federal Council, 20 July 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE 
New heatwave in Southern European
On 20 July, firefighting teams from Poland, Romania, and Slovakia were awaited in Greece to help local and other foreign emergency services combat its hottest July as parts of Spain reached 45 degrees Celsius. Security guards at the Acropolis are also on strike until Sunday for four hours every afternoon in order to protest working in such hot conditions. The high temperatures in Europe occur amidst similar occurrences in several other parts of the world, including the southern United States, Iraq, and China. Climate scientists are unanimous in their belief that present heat waves are made more frequent by man-induced global warming caused primarily by the use of fossil fuels. (“Southern Europe faces new heat wave as Greek fires burn on,” Deutsche Welle, 20 July 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Iran government orders Sweden's Ambassador to leave after the Quran burning row
On 21 July, as a diplomatic row over the recent burning of a Quran in Stockholm heats up, the Iraqi government ordered the Swedish ambassador in Baghdad to leave. Baghdad has ceased doing business with Swedish firms. Hundreds of protesters stormed the embassy after learning that an Iraqi Christian immigrant had been granted permission by Swedish police to burn a Quran for the second time in Stockholm. The protests were described as “completely unacceptable” by Sweden's foreign minister. Following the unrest, Sweden stated that all of its employees in Baghdad were safe. (Nadine Yousif, “Iraq expels Swedish ambassador as Quran row escalates,” BBC, 21 July 2023)


20 July 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #573

Ukraine: Attack on the Crimean Bridge | War in Ukraine: Day 510

Photo : CFP/CGTN


Ukraine: Attack on the Crimean Bridge 
By Sreeja JS 

On 17 July, the Crimean Bridge (also called Kerch Strait Bridge) connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Krasnodar in Russia’s southwestern Taman peninsula came under attack for the second time after October 2022. 
 
According to Russia’s antiterrorism committee, the bridge has been hit by two maritime drones in separate explosions. Even though they have inflicted minimal damage than the first one, it was a serious bolt to one of the important Russia’s supply routes passing through the bridge. Transport Ministry of Russia said that the roadway on the bridge was damaged while the spans remained intact. 
 
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President said the attack would not be left answered. Stressing on the imminent restoration of the bridge, he said: “Considering that this is the second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, I am waiting for specific proposals on how to improve the security of this strategically important transport facility.” Dmitry Peskov, Moscow’s spokesperson said: “We know the reasons and those behind this terrorist act. This will require further composure and additional measures and work from all of us. No other measures have been discussed at the moment.” He did not divulge the specific details of Kremlin’s response to the attack but mentioned that its ultimate answer to the attack would be the achievement of all goals behind the “military operation” in Ukraine. 
 

History, geography and the strategic significance of the Crimean bridge
The Crimean bridge is a 12-mile, USD 3.7 billion infrastructure project funded by Russia connecting Crimea with Russia across the Kerch Strait. The bridge consists of two parallel tracks: one four-lane road and a double-lane rail line and is considered one of the longest bridges in Europe. It offers a driving route to the peninsula, a popular destination for Russia’s tourists during summer. 
 
The bridge is critical for Russia as the only road and rail link to Crimea that also served as a key military supply route for the Russia’s forces fighting in Southern Ukraine. It also holds a symbolic value that Putin inaugurated the bridge in 2018 and called it a “miracle.” 
 
The bridge and peninsula have been a bone of contention between both Russia and Ukraine for a long time which intensified when Moscow declared a “special military operation” in February 2022. However, for Ukraine, the bridge violates its sovereignty and is widely despised. Therefore, the bridge was one of the key targets of the Ukraine’s forces as it has been targeting Russia’s logistics and supply routes for the last few months. 
 
The Crimean bridge first came under attack by the Ukraine’s security forces in October 2022. A truck laden with explosives detonated at a vulnerable spot of the bridge maximizing the damage. Following the attack, Russia responded harshly with drone and missile attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy supplies hitting power stations and other critical infrastructure for several months in a tit-for-tat move. Since then, Russia improved security measures to protect the bridge, including inspections and strengthening anti-air defences to prevent missile and drone attacks. It also deployed a “target barage” with radar reflectors to act as decoys for any guided missiles targeting the bridge. The Russia’s navy has reportedly built new pens for dolphins trained to protect its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. The recent attack also provoked a stark response from Russia that it used sea-launched precision weapons on Ukraine’s military facilities near Odesa and Mykolaiv, in the northeastern Ukraine hitting fuel depots and facilities that make maritime drones. 
 
Ukraine has been constantly targeting Crimea and it vowed to reclaim the peninsula from Russia's control. According to Kyiv, Crimea is playing a major role in sustaining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since the bridge served as the single important supply route replenishing the Russia’s forces in Southern Ukraine, damage to it means slowing down Russia’s efforts against Kyiv’s counteroffensive which is slightly progressing and making notable gains over the past few weeks. 
 
References
Matthew Mpoke Bigg, “
What We Know About the Attack on the Crimean Bridge,” The New York Times, 17 July 2023
Marc Sanotra, Neil MacFarquhar and Haley Wills, “
Explosions Damage Crimea Bridge as Russia Blames Ukraine for Attack,” The New York Times, 17 July 2023
Andrew Roth, “
Why is the Kerch Bridge attack significant to the war in Ukraine?,” The Guardian, 17 July 2023
Meeting on the Crimean Bridge,” Kremlin.ru, 17 July 2023
Russia’s forces destroy Ukrainian army’s fuel depot near Kramatorsk — top brass,” TASS, 17 July 2023
Russia ‘knows’ who ordered Crimean Bridge terror attack – Kremlin,” RT News, 17 July 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 510
By Rishika Yadav 


War on the Ground 
On 19 July, The Kyiv Independent reported on the information shared by Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior advisor to Ukraine’s President on the Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He emphasizes that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in recapturing Russia’s-controlled territory is likely to be challenging and lengthy. After five weeks into the operation, progress is slower than predicted. Kyiv seeks joint military patrol of Black Sea countries for grain exports after Russia left a safety deal for cargo ships. According to the report, Kyiv faces difficulties due to heavily mined territory and logistical issues, requiring more tanks and F-16 fighter jets to accelerate efforts against Russia’s forces. 

On 19 July, The Kyiv Independent reported on the information shared by Mykola Solskyi, Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister, about the Odesa attacks. He said that Russia’s attacks on port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast resulted in the destruction of 60,000 tons of grain. He calls it a "terrorist act" with severe global implications for food security. Odesa's port of Chornomorsk faces heavy Russia’s strikes, with air defence intercepting eight drones and one missile. 

On 19 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President said that the attacks on Odesa and other regions had caused significant damage to ports and food storage. Around a million tons of food destined for Africa and Asia were affected. Zelenskyy emphasizes the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defence and hold Russia accountable for terrorism. Preparations for international events, including the Summit of the Crimean Platform, were discussed, with the aim of liberating Crimea from occupation. 

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 19 July, TASS reported on the statement made by Putin on the Black Sea Grain deal. He said that Moscow may reinstate the grain deal if previous promises, including waiving sanctions on grain and fertilizer supplies, are fulfilled without exception. Putin expressed openness to the deal's importance for the global food market and many countries. The decision depends on adhering to agreed principles fully.
 
On 19 July, Anadolu Agency reported that Putin will not be attending the BRICS summit in Johannesburg next month. It was also confirmed by Cyril Ramaphosa, the South African President. Instead, Russia will be represented by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister. The decision comes after the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin, putting pressure on South Africa, a signatory to the Rome Statute. All BRICS leaders, except Putin, will be present at the summit.
 
On 19 July, the Russia’s defence ministry reported on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine. It confirmed successfully neutralized targets, including military facilities and depots near Odesa and a Ukraine’s Air Force airbase. In other directions, Russia’s troops continued offensive operations, advancing in depth and along the front, seizing a railway station. Numerous Ukraine’s attacks were repelled, and ammunition depots of Ukraine’s brigades were destroyed. Russia’s forces also targeted and destroyed Ukraine’s equipment and personnel across various regions. Notably, they shot down an AFU Su-25 aircraft and a Mi-8 helicopter.

On 19 July, TASS reported on Russia’s defence ministry’s shift in handling Ukraine’s ships crossing Black Sea. In a statement, Russia will consider all ships travelling to Ukraine’s ports across the Black Sea as potential carriers of military cargoes from midnight on July 20, 2023, following the expiration of the Black Sea grain deal. Russia further informed that the flag states of these ships will be viewed as siding with Ukraine in the conflict. Sea areas in certain parts of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily dangerous for navigation, with warning notices issued to mariners. This move comes after the termination of the maritime humanitarian corridor.
 
On 19 July, The Moscow Times reported about a bill passed by Russia’s m lawmakers that permits the National Guard to deploy heavy weaponry, including tanks. This move comes following a failed uprising by the Wagner mercenary group. The National Guard, under Putin's command, was initially established to tackle unrest and protests but has since taken part in military operations, including the offensive on Ukraine. The legislation allows the force to possess military-grade arms and was passed after the defence ministry acquired weapons from the Wagner group. The move aims to strengthen Russia's security apparatus after the mutiny attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner's leader.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 19 July, the US announced a new military package of USD 1.3 billion to Ukraine which includes air defence systems, anti-tank missiles, and drones. The US department of defence issued a statement assuring USs support to Ukraine’s demands for “critical near-term capabilities.” This will also boost capacity of Ukraine’s armed forces. Through the package, Ukraine will receive “Four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions,152 millimetres artillery rounds, mine clearing equipment and drones.”
 
On 19 July, The Guardian reported that a video has surfaced showing Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin addressing his fighters in Belarus. In the video he is calling the Russia’s war effort in Ukraine a "disgrace." Prigozhin, who led a recent mutiny, criticized the Russia’s military's management of the war, and stated his fighters wouldn't participate for now. The video suggests a deal was struck during the mutiny allowing Wagner fighters to live in exile in Belarus, where they may be training Belarusian territorial forces. Prigozhin indicated Wagner mercenaries would be going to Africa for new operations. 
 
On 19 July, Associated Press reported that five EU countries will extend their ban on Ukraine’s grain imports to protect their farmers. It will, however, allow food to move through their territories to destinations in need after Russia left the Black Sea grain deal. Agriculture ministers of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria signed a declaration supporting the transit of Ukraine’s grain through road, rail, and river routes, while maintaining the import ban until 2023. The ministers seek EU mechanisms to prevent grain congestion in their countries, with Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus noting a doubling of Ukraine’s grain moving through Poland this year due to the ban's effects. 
 
On 19 July, Deutsche Welle reported that Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Foreign Minister, pledged support to Ukraine for finding alternative grain export paths. She proposed the EU-created solidarity lanes "by barge, rail, or road" as an option. Baerbock accused Vladimir Putin of jeopardizing Ukraine’s grain exports and harming the poorest worldwide. Ukraine's grain feeds 400 million people globally.

On 19 July, BBC reported that in a speech in Prague, Sir Richard Moore, MI6 Chief, reveals that the intelligence agency has recruited disaffected Russia’ss. He emphasized that they are those Russia’ss who appalled the Ukraine and appealed for more to defect and join them. He emphasized that many Russia’ss are horrified by their armed forces' actions in Ukraine and offered them a chance to work to end the bloodshed. Moore assured that their secrets would be safe with MI6. He also discussed the Wagner mercenaries' rebellion and stated that the solution to the Ukraine war is Russia's withdrawal of troops. He highlighted the importance of human agents alongside AI technology in intelligence work. 

References
Kyiv Expects 'Long and Difficult' Counteroffensive – Ukrainian Presidential Advisor,” The Kyiv Independent, 19 July 2023
Minister: Russia’s strikes destroy 60,000 tons of grain,” The Kyiv Independent, 19 July 2023
Russia’s terror affects everyone; everyone in the world should be interested in bringing Russia to justice - address of the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 19 July 2023
Russia may get back to grain deal once promises made to Moscow are kept — Putin,” TASS, 19 July 2023
Russia’s Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation,” eng.mil.ru, 19 July 2023
Russia to view ships going to Ukraine across Black Sea as carrying military cargoes,” TASS, 19 July 2023
Russia Backs Bill to Arm National Guard with Heavy Weapons,” The Moscow Times, 19 July 2023
Andrew Roth, “
Video appears to show Wagner chief for first time since aborted mutiny,” The Guardian, 19 July 2023
Monika Scislowska, “
Five European countries will extend ban on Ukraine’s grain but let it head to other places,” AP news, 19 July 2023
EU 'solidarity lanes' provide alternative to grain deal, Germany's Baerbock says,” Deutsche Welle, 19 July 2023
Frank Gardner, “
Disaffected Russia’ss spying for UK, says MI6 head,” BBC news, 19 July 2023
Hassan Isilow, “
Putin set to skip BRICS summit in Johannesburg: South African president,” Anadolu Ajansi, 19 July 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia threatens Black Sea grain transport,” Deutsche Welle, 19 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran, and Genesy Balasingam

BELARUS

Head of Belarus Red Cross reveals transport of Ukrainian children to Belarus
On 19 July, Dzmitry Shautsou, leads the Belarus Red Cross, said that his organization had been transporting children from Russia’s-occupied regions in Ukraine to Belarus to “improve their health.” He said that by partnering with a charity foundation, they were trying to make “..the children forget the horrors of the war and just rest, feel that there’s an island of happiness.” The revelations have led to widespread criticism, within Belarus and the international community. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, called on the International Criminal Court (ICC) “to issue an arrest warrant” for Shautsou. Meanwhile, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said that the matter has been referred for investigation to their compliance committee. Since April, Belarusian officials said that over 1000 children have been brought in from the Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine. (Yuras Karmanau, “Belarus Red Cross sparks outcry after its chief says it brought Ukrainian children to Belarus,” Associated Press, 19 July 2023)
 
FINLAND

Government to close Russia’s Consulate General in Turku from October 
On 19 July, the Finnish Government reported on the meeting between the President and the Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy. During the meeting, they discussed Russia’s decision to shut down Finland’s Consulate General in St. Petersburg on 01 October. The group decided to deny Russia’s Consulate General permission to operate in Finland’s city of Turku. The President and the Ministry Committee also talked about the Russia’s consulate in Mariehamn. Furthermore, the launch of the Government Report on Finnish Foreign and Security Policy was also discussed. (“President and Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy discuss diplomatic missions of Finland and Russia and preparation of Government Report on Finnish Foreign and Security Policy,” Finnish Government, 19 July 2023) 
 
REGIONAL

EU sanctions exclude Russia's nuclear industry due to no immediate alternative 
On 19 July, Deutsche Welle reported on how the EU sanctions exclude the Russia’s nuclear industry. While the EU is making progress in withdrawing itself off Russia’s resources, it poses various challenges in breaking its reliance on Russia’s nuclear energy. EU sanctions against Russia's civil nuclear industry have proven politically unpalatable. Nuclear fuel imported from Russia's state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom and its units contributes to roughly half of total energy production in Slovakia and Hungary, as well as more than a third in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. In fact, the value of Russia’s nuclear-related exports has not only not decreased since February 2022, but data suggests that it may be increasing. Experts say while uranium from Russia could be relatively easily replaced by supplies from elsewhere, finding alternatives to Russia’s fuel enrichment capacity could take years. (Ashutosh Pandey, “Why EU sanctions don't include Russia’s nuclear industry,” Deutsche Welle, 19 July 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE

The Mediterranean becomes a climate change new hot spot
On 20 July, with intense heat waves and near record temperatures, scientists ranked the Mediterranean as the new climate change hotspot. Various beaches, shorelines, marine ecosystems, heritage sites and seafood in this region are under threat. The IPCC in the 2022 report on impacts of climate change reported that heatwaves are increasing in intensity due to climate change and are further amplified in cities due to urbanisation practices. Political tensions over water management are rising because of the drought in Spain. Hotter temperatures are causing groundwater shortages further affecting wheat and olive yield in North Africa. (“Heat-struck Mediterranean is climate change 'hot spot',” France 24, 20 July 2023)
 
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

EU’s introduced Cyber Resilience Act
On 19 July, the EU introduced Cyber Resilience Act, a mandatory cyber security requirement for products to enable a safe and secure digital single market. The proposed legislation provides consumers the opportunity to make informed choices of hardware and software products with cybersecurity. This proposal would further ensure security of the products throughout their supply chain encouraging transparency, responsibility for compliance and support onwards manufacturers and small-scale enterprises. (“Cyber resilience act: member states agree common position on security requirements for digital products,” European Council for European Union, 19 July 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Supporters of Shiite leader attack Sweden’s Embassy in Iraq
On 20 July, the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad was attacked by hundreds of protestors. The protestors scaled the walls of the embassy and set fire while the law enforcement used water cannons and electric batons to disperse the mob. According to reports, the protest was organized by supporters of a Shiite cleric to oppose the second planned Quran burning in Sweden. The Swedish Foreign Ministry called out the Iraqi government, said: “The Iraqi authorities are responsible for the protection of diplomatic missions and their staff.” Iraq has condemned the violence and opened investigations. (“Iraq: Swedish Embassy in Baghdad stormed,” Deutsche Welle, 20 July 2023) 
 

International Gymnastics Federation lowers ban on Russia’s and Belarusian athletes
On 20 July, Deutsche Welle reported that the ban on Russia’s and Belarusian gymnasts will be removed by the International Gymnastics Federation (FIG). This will enable athletes to participate in international competitions as well as in the Paris Olympics in 2024. However, according to the FIG, the gymnasts will compete as Individual Neutral Athletes with rules “Aimed at ensuring strict compliance with the neutrality requirements.” FIG’s decisions also exclude team gymnastics as according to the International Olympic Committee, athlete teams from Russia and Belarus are still banned. The sport ban had been placed in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Jonathan Crane, “Gymnastics lifts ban on Russia’s and Belarusian athletes,” Deutsche Welle, 20 July 2023) 


19 July 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #572

GP Explained: The Nature Restoration Law | War in Ukraine: Day 509

Photo : cinea.ec.europa.eu


GP Explained: The Nature Restoration Law
By Sneha Surendran 

On 12 July, the European Parliament approved the contested Nature Restoration Law. The law was passed by a narrow margin of 336 against 300 votes, with 30 absentations. The European Commission’s Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans said: “My mission in the next couple of months is to convince also many of those who today voted against that this is a law that really would help European nature recover.” Earlier, 


What is the new Nature Restoration Law?
In June 2022, the European Commission released its first communication regarding the proposed Nature Restoration Law. 

The Nature Restoration Law is an initiative under the European Green Deal. It is EU’s first legislation specifically targeting the restoration of Europe’s deteriorating ecosystems, and mitigating the worsening impacts of climate change. The law aims to bring back 80 per cent of damaged European habitats, including wetlands, forests, grasslands, marine ecosystems, and rivers by 2050. In the short-term, it aims to restore at least 20 per cent of these regions by 2030. 


What is the background?
A 2021 assessment by the European Commission of the Ecosystems of the European Union found that all ecosystem types in the region require significant measures of restoration to check biodiversity loss and protect ecosystem services availed for the people’s wellbeing. It said: “More efforts are needed to bend the curve of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation and to put ecosystems on a recovery path.” 

Over the years, climate change had a detrimental impact on Europe’s climate. The summer of 2022 was the hottest summer recorded in Europe; it also witnessed thousands of deaths due to the searing heat. Currently, Europe is also the fastest-warming continent. The 2022 State of the Climate in Europe showed that warming extensively impacted the continent's ecosystems. The North Atlantic region has been recording the warmest average sea surface temperatures, while marine heat waves have intensified. Land-based disasters like droughts and wildfires have risen over the past few years. Meanwhile, during 1997-2022, almost 880 cubic km of ice melted from the European glaciers, with the Alps being the worst affected. 


How did the EU vote on the legislation? And Why?
Ever since the Nature Restoration Law has been proposed, it has received varied responses from lawmakers and other quarters within the EU. The same continued on the days leading up to the voting of the law in the European Parliament. 
The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) along with other right-wing groups voted against the law. The EPP has long contended that the restoration of land in certain ecosystem regions will deplete agricultural cover, ultimately affecting farmers' production and exacerbating the food insecurity issues already continuing due to the COVID pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. A member of Identity and Democracy said: “Less land for farmers, less sea for fishermen, less activity for businesses, and fewer European products and jobs for our citizens…a regulation permeated with ideology and counterproductive for nature itself.” The EPP has also stated that the new law will be a tool for climate activists and NGOs to pursue legal action against governments, further interfering with economic activities.

Farmers in the EU have long voiced their opposition to the legislation, as it calls for 30 per cent of former peatlands currently in use for agriculture to be restored and redirected for other purposes. The probable loss of vast expanses of agricultural land in the name of restoration has also concerned farmers. On 11 July, a day before the law went for the vote, farmers arrived with tractors to protest outside the European Parliament. They also urged lawmakers to vote against the bill. In a counter-protest to the farmer's demonstrations, climate activists, including Greta Thunberg, gathered to show their support for the bill. 

Amongst those who voted favourably for the Nature Restoration Law, there were 21 EPP lawmakers who also voted their assent, contesting the party’s stance. Meanwhile, Frans Timmersmans, Vice-President of the European Commission welcomed the voting results and stated that he was willing to work with the opposing EPP members to find common ground on the implementation of the law. Lead negotiator for the law, Cesar Luena, expressed gratitude to colleagues and scientists, saying: “We have won. It is a social victory: for scientists, for young people, for a lot of companies and businesses, for the agricultural sector.”  
Meanwhile, scientists called out the opposition for their disinformation campaigns against the new law, stating that ecosystem restoration will only improve food security and generate jobs. An open letter signed by nearly 6000 scientists berated the opposition for basing their arguments on unsound science and even contradicting scientific facts. A conservation biologist at the Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Guy Pe’er said: “Lobby organizations can generate as much misinformation as they want. But when policymakers are going against the science, we need to step in.”


What are the challenges ahead?
First, a limited focus on agricultural land restoration. Although the law was adopted, Members of the European Parliament had to cut back on critical articles that were proposed in the original draft of the bill owing to the heavy opposition. For instance, the article on the restoration of agricultural lands had to be nullified. With its removal, the objective of targeting intensive agriculture.

Second, clash over drafting new laws due to existing complexities in present provisions. The decrease in forest cover has faced a setback. Moreover, the restoration of depleting forest covers would have aided in the sequestering of carbon, which prevents the emissions from warming the surroundings. Furthermore, the Parliament said that the implementation of the law would begin only after the European Commission assessed the existing laws on food security as well as quantified the data outlining the necessary conditions to guarantee food security. This was in response to the EPP’s concerns. The Parliament further said that there could be a postponement of the targets in the law in case of “exceptional socioeconomic consequences.” Some of the lawmakers who voted for the bill, as well as climate activists, expressed dissatisfaction over the weakened version of the law. 

References:
Ajit Niranjan, “
EU passes nature restoration law in knife-edge vote,” The Guardian, 12 July 2023
Nature restoration law: MEPs adopt position for negotiations with Council,” European Parliament, 12 July 2023
Climate change impacts scar Europe, but increase in renewables signals hope for future,” World Meteorological Organization, 19 June 2023
EU Ecosystem Assessment,” European Commission, 19 May 2021
Louise Guillot, “
Parliament backs new EU nature law in blow to conservatives,” Politico, 12 July 2023
Green Deal: pioneering proposals to restore Europe's nature by 2050 and halve pesticide use by 2030,” European Commission, 22 June 2022
Kate Abnett, Marine Strauss, “
EU Parliament passes nature law after political backlash,” Reuters, 12 July 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 509
By Rishika Yadav 

War on the Ground
On 18 July, Ukrinform reported Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President meeting on grain sea exports and port security. During the meeting, logistics and coastal protection updates were presented by the infrastructure minister and Navy Commander. Countering Russian UAVs and intelligence reports were also discussed. The battlefield situation was briefed by military officials. Projectile supply dynamics were shared by the defence minister and logistics forces commander.

On 18 July, Ukrinform reported on an important agricultural development where Ukraine has successfully exported over 33 million tonnes of grain to 45 nations during a year-long grain deal operation. Zelenskyy has reached out to the President of Turkey and the UN Secretary General, urging them to support the continuation of the grain initiative. Zelenskyy now proposes a unilateral format without Russia's involvement to ensure global food security.

On 18 July, Deutsche Welle reported Ukraine activating Odesa's aerial defenses. The move was in response to Russia's missile and drone strikes overnight, causing damage to the Black Sea port city's infrastructure. The strikes followed an explosion on the bridge linking Russia to Crimea. Moscow's refusal to extend the grain export agreement that utilized Odesa's maritime terminals also contributed to the tension. 

On 18 July, The Kyiv Independent gave an update on Ukrainian forces advances in the southern front. It reported that Ukrainian forces have made advancements, particularly in the Mala Tokmachka-Novopokrovka and Velyka Novosilka-Urozhaine directions, with troops consolidating their positions. Concerns arise as Russia deploys reserves in the Bakhmut direction and concentrates significant military assets in the Kupiansk direction.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 18 July, Meduza reported that Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President comments on Odesa strikes. He stated that the strikes on Odesa's port infrastructure were retaliatory actions for the Crimean Bridge incident. The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that the attack targeted facilities involved in preparing attacks against Russia, including unmanned boat usage and manufacturing near Odesa. On 18 July, six Caliber missiles and 36 Shahed kamikaze drones were launched, with some debris causing damage in Odesa, injuring one person.

On 18 July, TASS reported on the update by Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov, Defence Ministry Spokesman of Russia, on the advances in Ukraine. He informed that Russian air defence forces reportedly destroyed 43 Ukrainian drones and intercepted three rockets from a US made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. In the south Donetsk and Zaporozhye (areas, Russian forces repulsed multiple attacks and destroyed over 200 Ukrainian troops and military assets.

On 18 July, TASS reported on the statement about Black Sea grain deal by Maria Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson of Russia. Zakharova, stated that Russia no longer trusts promises from western countries and the UN regarding the deal. Zakharova emphasized that Russia had taken steps to help needy countries access food products through the deal, but the West's actions have been questionable.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 18 July, Reuters reported on the US decision to give new military package. The US will provide USD 1.3 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine to aid its conflict with Russia. Notably, the package encompasses counter-air defenses like the VAMPIRE system from L3 Harris Technologies and two types of loitering munitions, Phoenix Ghost drone from AVEVEX, and Switchblade from AeroVironment Inc.
 
On 18 July, Reuters reported that the EU's plan to boost Ukraine's grain export. It aims to increase the transportation of Ukrainian grains through road and rail to offset Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea exports deal. On 18 July, Russia targeted Ukrainian grain ports after pulling out of the deal. Leo Varadkar, the Prime Minister of Ireland, stated that the EU would expand land export routes for Ukrainian grains through solidarity lanes passing from neighboring countries like Romania and Poland.

On 18 July, USAID reported that USAID Administrator Samantha Power criticism on Russia. It criticized Russia for suspending the Black Sea Grain Initiative in Odesa. The US is providing an additional USD 250 million through AGRI-Ukraine to support the agriculture sector amid Russia's aggression, bringing the total US investment to USD 350 million.

On 18 July, the press release of the Government of UK reported on the UK's Armed Forces plan to enhance warfighting readiness. It announced to invest GBP 2.5 billion in stockpiles and a Global Response Force. The plan includes an additional GBP 2.5 billion investment in stockpiles and munitions, a UK Global Response Force for swift deployment, and a focus on becoming a science and technology superpower with advancements in robotics, directed energy weapons, and more. 

References
Sea export of grain, port security: Zelensky holds meeting of Supreme Commander-in-Chief Staff,” Ukrinform, 18 July, 2023
Shmyhal: Ukraine exported more than 33M tonnes of grain to 45 countries over year of grain deal,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2023
Ukraine activates Odesa air defenses,” Deutsche Welle, 18 July 2023
Martin Fornusek, “
General Staff: Ukraine advances in two southern directions,” The Kyiv Independent, 18 July 2023
Yermak: Russian drones still have Western-made parts, new sanctions needed,” The Kyiv Independent, 18 July 2023
The Kremlin called the attack on Odessa "retaliation strikes for the Crimean bridge",” Meduza, 18 July 2023
Russian air defenses destroy 43 Ukrainian military drones over past day,” TASS, 18 July 2023
Western, UN assurances no longer enough for Russia’s grain deal return — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 18 July 2023
Mike Stone, “
U.S. to announce $1.3 bln in military aid for Ukraine -sources,” Reuters, 18 July 2023
Gabriela Baczynska, “
EU seeks more land exports of Ukraine grain after Russia drops Black Sea deal,” Reuters, 18 July 2023
The United States Provides Additional $250 Million to Help Ukraine Continue Feeding the World,” usaid.gov, 18 July 2023
Refreshed Defence Command Paper sets out future for Armed Forces,” gov.uk, 18 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran, and Genesy Balasingam

FRANCE 

Report based on Uber files reveals lack of strict transparency rules  
On 18 July, a 500-page report by the French Parliament Commission on the Uber Files called out “gaping loopholes” in transparency rules in France. The report also focussed on President Emmanuel Macron’s relations with the ride-hailing app when he had been the economy minister, stating: “The intensity of the contacts between Uber, Emmanuel Macron and his cabinet testifies to an opaque but privileged relationship and reveals the inability of our system to measure and prevent the influence of private interests on public decision-making.” The report follows the Guardian’s 2022 publication of the Uber Files. The Uber Files had shown that the company had launched an illegal new feature between 2014-2015, stating: “It consisted in aggressively and disruptively multiplying fronts to force the state to modify its regulations so that they became favourable to Uber’s interests.” The investigation also found that the company had avoided paying corporation taxes. Meanwhile, the commission has given recommendations including tightening regulations around political lobbying. (Lisa O'Carroll, “French Uber inquiry finds ‘gaping loopholes’ remain in lobbying rules,” The Guardian, 18 July 2023) 
 
RUSSIA

Pro-Russian militia from Luhansk and Donetsk accused for human rights abuse in Ukraine
On 18 July, The Guardian reported that an investigation by the Centre for Information Resilience into the human rights abuses in Ukraine’s Izium city has named four Russian militia units as the perpetrators. The incidents happened when Russian forces occupied the city from April 2022 for six months. Following its liberation by Ukrainian troops, a mass grave with 447 bodies, and torture rooms were discovered. According to the report, the militia units were stationed in schools and kindergartens. A survivor account said: “They drank a lot and swapped humanitarian aid for homemade vodka.” Other survivor accounts have revealed that the troops physically and mentally tortured civilians, including shooting young children. The grave also had the bodies of 12 Ukrainian soldiers. The pro-Russian troops were reportedly battalions from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.  (Nick Hopkins, Jamie Wilson, Luke Harding, “Militia units commanded by Russia named in Izium abuse investigation,” The Guardian, 18 July 2023)

THE UK

Government passes migration bill
On 18 July, the government's controversial migration bill was passed amidst strong resistance. The barge Bibby Stockholm can accommodate 500 asylum seekers and it is set to board migrants this month. The bill and the vessel is a strategy to curb illegal migration. It is intended to deter migrants from claiming asylum in the UK if they arrive illegally and will be banned from ever re-entering the UK. The UNHCR chiefs stated that the bill will have “profound consequences” for people seeking protection. This move by the government would also deny protection for those who have survived human trafficking. (Brian Melley, “ vessel to accommodate asylum-seekers docks in UK as Parliament passes controversial migration bill”, Associated Press, 18 July 2023)
 
REGIONAL

EU MEPs condemn European Commission-Tunisia deal
On 18 July, the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) criticized the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the EU and Tunisia. On 16 July, EU President Ursula von der Leyen, along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte signed a deal with Tunisia’s President Kais Saied. The deal will allocate almost EURO 700 million for economic, environmental, and migration issues. The criticism by the MEPs pointed to Tunisia’s deteriorating democratic values. Saied has long been accused of being racist towards black migrants. A Dutch MEP said: “President Saied is an authoritarian ruler, he's not a good partner, (he's) a dictator who's actually boosted the number of departures.” European Commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson defended the deal, stating: “It's very important that our main objective always must be to save lives, to prevent people from going on these journeys that too often end by ending their lives, this is a priority.” (orge Liboreiro, “MEPs blast European Commission for signing deal with Tunisia's 'cruel dictator',” Euronews, 18 July 2023) 

CLIMATE CHANGE

High temperatures lead to surge in hospital emergencies
On 18 July, Italy experienced an upsurge in the number of people seeking emergency care as the heatwave continued to intensify. 23 cities including Rome which set a record for highest temperature have been placed on “red alert.” The ministry has urged people to dress in linen and to avoid venturing outside during the day to combat heat. Heat codes have been set up in emergency units to prioritise care to the most vulnerable. the hottest place on Earth - California’s Death Valley hit a  53.3 Celcius on Sunday nearly setting a world record. (“Italian hospitals report sharp rise in emergency cases as Rome hits 41.8C,” The Guardian, 18 July 2023)

ENVIRONMENT

Rise in death of cats due to feline coronavirus in Cyprus 
On 18 July, The Guardian reported that cats in Cyprus are increasingly dying owing to feline coronavirus. Experts say a virulent strain of the disease is behind the deaths. The news has raised concerns about people catching the disease, especially cat owners. However, feline coronavirus is not connected to COVID-19 and does not impact humans. The virus causes a stomach upset in cats but prolonged presence in the body can lead to feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) whose complications can turn fatal to the animal. Scientists have speculated that the increase in deaths due to feline coronavirus was due to the virus having evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since cats are also susceptible to COVID-19, the feline coronavirus might have mutated as cats developed new antibodies. In other news, Poland is investigating the outbreak of H5N1 bird flu in cats that has caused around 25 deaths. (Hannah Devlin, Linda Geddes, “Experts warn about feline coronavirus after ‘thousands’ of cat deaths in Cyprus,” The Guardian, 18 July 2023) 
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

France adopted bill to allow tapping phones of criminals 
On 18 July, members of parliament passed a bill that will enable law enforcement authorities to access the camera or location of suspected criminals by tapping their phones and internet devices. The bill states that this can be done “without the knowledge or consent of its owner or possessor.” However, only people connected to terrorism, drug trafficking, and other illegal activities that warrant more than five years of imprisonment will be subjected to the provision. Furthermore, before tapping the devices, the investigating judge has to consent to the act. The bill is aimed at strengthening the justice system. However, left-wing lawmakers and digital rights activists have condemned the bill for infringing on privacy rights. A Socialist lawmaker termed it as “liberticide,” while concerns have also been raised about the possible misuse of the provision by the French police. (Youcef Bounab. “Lawmakers approve bill allowing French police to locate suspects by tapping their devices,” Associated Press, 18 July 2023) 
  
INTERNATIONAL

EU-CELAC summit to further ties despite unanimity to condemn Russia
On 18 July, The Guardian reported that Nicaragua refused to agree to a paragraph condemning Russia for the Ukraine war at the end of the two-day EU-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit. President of CELAC, Ralph Gonsalves said: “The concern for us with Ukraine, among other things, would be the terrible suffering that is taking place among peoples who are directly involved in the conflict but also because of increasing prices, shortages of commodities, increasing immiseration of people.” Meanwhile, the EU pledged to allocate EURO 45 billion to strengthen the ties between the two blocs and also decided to open a new raw materials supply chain with Chile. The two-day summit in Brussels was the first in eight years and aimed to reaffirm relations between Latin America and the Caribbean with the EU. (Lisa O'Carroll, “Nicaragua fails to back censure of Russia at end of EU-Latin America summit,” The Guardian, 18 July 2023)


18 July 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #572

Russia denies to renew the grain deal | War in Ukraine: Day 508

Wildfires in Greece; New migrant deal between the EU and Tunisia 

Photo : The UN/Turkish Defence Ministry/CNN


War in Ukraine: Day 508
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 17 July, Sergei Aksyonov, Russian-installed official in Crimea announced on telegram that traffic had been blocked due to an emergency in Kerch Strait Bridge. The antiterrorism committee later reported that that bridge had been hit by two maritime drones in two explosions. According to The New York Times, Russian officials are blaming Ukraine for the explosions and Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee said that they would investigate this bridge collapse as a terrorist act. This is the second time the bridge is coming under attack highlighting its importance to both Ukraine and Russia. The Kerch Bridge, the longest bridge in Europe, also called as the Crimean Bridge is a 12 mile, USD 3.7 billion infrastructure project with two parallel tracks, one four-lane road and a two rail-lane. The bridge connects mainland Russia to Crimean peninsula.
 
On 17 July, the Black Sea Grain initiative, the deal allowing Ukraine to safely export grain through the Black Sea has officially expired after Moscow informed UN, Turkey and Ukraine that it would not renew the deal. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, has been complaining that the parts of the deal which allowed the exports of Russian food and fertilizers is not being fulfilled. He was also complaining that the grains from Ukraine also was not being supplied to poorer countries and the western sanctions were restricting its own agricultural exports. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, in his video address said that Ukraine, the UN and Turkey can “jointly ensure” the operation of the food corridor and the inspection vessels. He said: “it is necessary for everyone in the world-and everyone who supports it will become a savior of life in a huge territory from Morocco to China, from Indonesia to Lebanon.”
 
On 17 July, Ukrinform quoting the head of the Zaporizhzhia regional Military Administration reported that, Russian military has conducted 55 attacks on 16 localities. 52 artillery strikes were reported in Huliypole, Olhivka, Malynivka, Charivne, Zaliznychne, Preobrazhenka, Stepnohirsk and other villages in the frontline. According to the General Staff of Armed Forces, heavy battles are underway in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk, and Marinsk directions where 29 combat clashes took place.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 17 July, Russia's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, commented on the termination of the grain deal. He said: “As soon as the Russian part (of the deal) is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of this deal.” According to TASS, Kremlin’s decision on terminating the deal was announced before the collapse of Crimean Bridge and this has not influenced Moscow’s decision.
 
On 17 July, Putin said that Kyiv’s attack on the Crimean bridge would not be left unanswered. Speaking at a videoconference he said: “Considering that this is the second terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, I am waiting for specific proposals on how to improve the security of this strategically important transport facility.”
 
On 17 July, RT reported on Peskov’s comments on the attack on the Crimean bridge. According to RT, he said: “We know the reasons and those behind this terrorist act. This will require further composure and additional measures and work from all of us. No other measures have been discussed at the moment.” He also stated that while he could not provide nay specific details about Moscow’s response to the attack, its ultimate answer would be be the achievement of all the goals behind the “military operation” in Ukraine. Russia’ transportation ministry noted that bridge’s support remains intact while the surface is damaged.
 
On 17 July, TASS reported that Russian forces destroyed a fuel depot of the Ukrainian forces near Kramatorsk in Donetsk. According to the report, 73 Ukrainian artillery units, military and manpower equipment in 68 areas were struck over the course of a day.

The West View  
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 17 July, Secretary of State of the US, Anthony Blinken condemned Russia for pulling out of the grain deal. According to Deutsche Welle, he said: “The result of Russia’s action today weaponizing food will be to make food harder to come by in places that desperately need it and have prices rise.” He added that the bottom line is “its unconscionable.” He also stated that Washington is monitoring the damage of the bridge and it is upto Ukraine to decide on how it conducts the war.
 
On 17 July, Deutsche Welle reported that German leaders have condemned Russia’s decision not to renew the deal. Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany said that the move sends bad message to the world. Annalena Baerbock, Foreign Minister said that Putin is “using hunger as weapon in this brutal war of aggression” and he “has no regard for the weakest in the world.” She added that it has become important for EU to help export grain from Ukraine via railways.
 
On 17 July, Ursula von der Leyen, President of European Commission condemned Russia’s cynical move to terminate the grain deal. She further added that EU is working to ensure food security for the world’s vulnerable.
 
On 17 July, James Cleverly, Foreign Secretary of the UK announced 14 new sanctions in response to Moscow’s “attempts to destroy Ukrainian national identity, including 11 people those involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children. The 11 personalities include Commissioner for Children’s Rights in Moscow, Minister of Education of Russia, a Russian propagandist and the Culture Minister of Russia. According to GOV.UK, over 1,600 individuals and entities, including 29 global banks, over 130 oligarchs and GBP 20 billion worth of UK-Russia have been sanctioned since the start of the invasion.

References
Matthew Mpoke Bigg, “What We Know About the Attack on the Crimean Bridge,” The New York Times, 17 July 2023
Sammy Westfall and Laris Karklis, “Why is Russia’s bridge to Crimea so important?,” The Washington Post, 17 July 2023
Antoinette Radford and Kathryn Armstrong, “Ukraine grain deal expires after Russia pulls out,” BBC, 17 July 2023
Ukraine, UN and Türkiye can jointly ensure operation of food corridor and inspection of vessels – Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 17 July 2023
Over past day, Russians shell Zaporizhzhia region 55 times,” Ukrinform, 17 July 2023
General staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “Operation information as of 18.00 on 17.07.2023 regarding the Russian invasion, Facebook, 17 July 2023
Kremlin announced grain deal termination,” TASS, 17 July 2023
Meeting on the Crimean Bridge,” Kremlin.ru, 17 July 2023
Russian forces destroy Ukrainian army’s fuel depot near Kramatorsk — top brass,” TASS, 17 July 2023
Russia ‘knows’ who ordered Crimean Bridge terror attack – Kremlin,” RT News, 17 July 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia halts grain deal after Crimea attack,” Deutsche Welle, 17 July 2023
Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon James Cleverly MP, “UK announces new sanctions in response to Russia’s forced deportation of Ukrainian children,” UK.GOV, 17 July 2023
I strongly condemn Russia’s cynical move to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, despite UN & Türkiye’s efforts.Twitter, 17 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran, and Genesy Balasingam

GERMANY
April-June quarter shows small economic growth compared to previous two quarters 
On 17 July, Germany’s central bank announced that after declining for two consecutive quarters, the economy exhibited a slight growth for the April-June period. Last year's fourth quarter saw a 0.5 per cent decline of the GDP, followed by the first quarter of this year recording a 0.3 per cent shrink. The bank said that an increase in pay, and lack of increase in inflation had helped to stabilize private consumption. The bank also highlighted a fall in demand from foreign investors, and decreasing business confidence. Furthermore, the rest of the year is predicted to show a “somewhat more hesitant” economic recovery. (“Germany’s central bank says the economy apparently returned to growth in the 2nd quarter,” Associated Press, 17 July 2023) 
 
RUSSIA
Moscow withdraws from the Black Sea grain deal agreement; Ukraine intends to continue 
On 17 July, Russia informed the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine that it would not be renewing the Black Sea grain deal following the expiry of the agreement. Moscow accused the West of not complying with the deal, calling it an “open sabotage” by placing their commercial interests and neglecting the humanitarian intent. Putin has long complained that the grains were not being sent to poorer countries, which was a part of the agreement. Recep Erdogan, Turkey’s President responded to the news, saying that he would discuss the matter of renewal of the deal with Putin when they meet next month. Zelenskyy reiterated that they were not afraid of Russia’s decision, indicating that they were willing to continue with the exports, saying: “We were approached by companies who own vessels and they're willing to continue shipping grain if Ukraine agrees to let them in and Turkey - to pass them through.” (Antoinette Radford, Kathryn Armstrong, “Ukraine grain deal expires after Russia pulls out,” BBC, 17 July 2023)
 
SWEDEN
Government announces assistance plan for Ukraine
On 17 July, the Government Offices of Sweden released a statement announcing a new strategy for assisting Ukraine, worth almost EUR 522 million. It will be Sweden’s largest-ever bilateral development assistance strategy. The new deal will be for 2023-2027. Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Johan Forssell said: “It will strengthen Ukraine’s resilience and democratic development, which will bolster the country’s capacity to resist Russia’s full-scale invasion.” (“Swedish Government adopts new development assistance strategy for Ukraine,” Government Offices of Sweden, 17 July 2023) 
 
SWITZERLAND
Demining in Ukraine to be boosted with help from Switzerland
On 17 July, The Federal Council released a statement announcing that Switzerland was planning to help increase the humanitarian demining efforts in Ukraine. According to the official press release: “Humanitarian mine action is key to recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine. It is a precondition for humanitarian access, for the return of displaced persons, for social and economic recovery, for agricultural activities, and for the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure.” The Ukrainian efforts to clear mines will be helped by projects headed by the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD) and the Fondation suisse de déminage (FSD). The release also stated that the GICHD has been strengthening its presence in Ukraine. (“Swiss expertise bolsters humanitarian demining efforts in Ukraine,” The Federal Council, 17 July 2023) 
 
REGIONAL
Hope for West Balkans joining the EU and Financial Support
On 17 July, the leaders of various Western Balkan nations met informally in Tirana to discuss their preparations for a meeting on future membership. In order to encourage the six Western Balkan nations that aren't yet members of the EU to continue working towards harmonizing their policies and practises with those of the union and to open new pathways for entry into the European single market without anticipating membership in the EU, Albania plans to host a summit on the Berlin Process on 16 October. The Western countries are very concerned about a contentious issue between Serbia and Kosovo, a former Serbian region that proclaimed independence in 2008.The Ukraine conflict has made Western integration more difficult.(Llazar Semini,“After years of delay, Western Balkans hope for progress on joining the EU — and financial support,” Associated Press, 18 July 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Wildfires erupt in Greece
On 18 July, in the coastal town of Loutraki, west of Athens, 1,200 children were evacuated. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece Prime Minister reassured that the state was doing everything possible to help. The reports from the weather watchers indicate no signs of ease of the intense regional heatwave. Greece has recently experienced temperatures of at least 40 Celsius (104F), and the Greek meteorological office has issued a warning that the possibility of more fires is still quite high. Spain and Italy, two neighbours, have also been suffering exceptionally high temperatures. (Robert Plummer, Kathryn Armstrong, “Greece wildfires: 1,200 children evacuated from summer camp as blaze nears,” BBC, 18 July 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
New migrant deal signed by EU and Tunisia 
On 17 July, BBC reported that a migration deal has been signed between EU leaders and Tunisia to address irregular migration. The deal has allocated USD 118 million to stop smuggling, secure the borders and repatriate migrants. So far in 2023, the EU has recorded almost 72,000 migrants entering the EU, largely into Italy. Tunisia is the main point of departure for migrants coming over through the Mediterranean. According to the new deal, migrants will be treated with “full respect of human rights” and will also arrange legal help for the migrants. Tunisia's President Kais Saied has often been accused of being racist towards migrants, calling them “traitors who are working for foreign countries.” However, he said that he has always treated migrants with generosity. Meanwhile, EU leaders have welcomed the deal as migration has become a point of concern for Europe. (Cecilia Macaulay, “Tunisia-EU migration: Deal signed to strengthen borders,” BBC, 17 July 2023) 


17 July 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #570

War in Ukraine: Day 506 & 507

Wildfires slow down in Spain; UK enters Indo-Pacific trade bloc; EU leader in Tunisia to discuss trade and migration

Photo : Tunisian Presidency/ AP


War in Ukraine: Day 506 & 507
By Sreeja J S

War on the Ground
On 16 July, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister posted on Telegram that the situation continues to worsen in eastern Ukraine. Russia has been advancing in Kupyansk in Kharkiv where intense battles are underway. Ukrainian forces are gradually making gains in Bakhmut. In the South, daily advances are reported, whereas, in the southern Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces are trying to hold their positions against Russian attacks. Further, Russia continues offensive actions in Avdiivsk and Marinsk. 

On 15 July, Yonhap News Agency reported that Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea's President visited South Korea on an unannounced visit following the NATO Summit in Vilnius on 11 and 12 July.  Yoon visited the site of mass killings in Bucha near Kyiv before visiting Irpin, the site of large-scale missile attacks. In the joint press conference, Yoon stated that the government of the Republic of Korea allocated USD 100 million (2022) to support Kyiv which would increase to USD 150 million in 2023. According to Ukrinform, Yoon and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine also discussed the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine as Seoul plans to allocate funds for the restoration of infrastructure, assistance to entrepreneurship and reconstruction of the education system. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 July, TASS reported that UNSC would hold a meeting on 17 July to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the extension of the Black Sea Initiative as requested by the British mission. 

On 15 July, Putin over a phone call with Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, discussed the African peace initiative and the Black Sea Initiative set to expire on 17 July. According to RT, Putin told Ramaphosa that the grain deal did not fulfil its purpose and the agricultural products that should have been delivered to poorer countries did not reach them while huge shares ended up in Europe. Either the Russia - UN memorandum which facilitated Russian agriculture exports also has not been fulfilled. The leaders further discussed the African peace initiative, including the Russia-Africa summit scheduled in late July. 

On 15 July, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, claimed that Western countries are encouraging Ukraine to conduct attacks on Russia’s nuclear sites. According to RT, she was commenting after a Ukrainian drone crashed in Kurchatov, near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant on 14 July. Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod along the borders of Russia have frequently come under attack since the beginning of the invasion. According to RT Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) said that it captured a group of Ukrainian agents who were planning to sabotage nuclear power plants in Leningrad and Tver. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 16 July, Politico wrote that Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser of the US reaffirmed that Ukraine would be admitted into NATO when it fulfills certain conditions. In an interview with ABC News, he said that Ukraine’s admission into NATO would mean that the alliance and the US are at war with Russia, which neither is prepared for. He said that “Ukraine has made a lot of progress” towards democratic reforms and added that “it has more reforms to make.” 

On 15 July, Serbia announced that it would send a new package of humanitarian aid to Ukraine to “overcoming the humanitarian disaster in the Kherson region.” The aid would be in the form of goods and medicines from the Directorate for Commodity Reserves and goods from Commissariat for Refugees and Migration. The government also approved temporary protection for the affected Ukrainian citizens from Kherson. 

On 15 July, The New York Times wrote that within the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, Ukraine lost up to 20 per cent of its weaponry, including some of the advanced Western fighting machines. However, the rate of losses was reduced by up to ten per cent in the later weeks, because of changing tactics. The Ukrainian forces started focusing more on wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire. According to The New York Times, the pace of the counteroffensive that came down due to losses would pick up with the delivery of cluster munitions from the US. 

On 14 July, Ukrinform reported that the House of Representatives of the US passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal year 2024 which would provide for USD 300 million for Ukraine. Earlier, the US Department of Defence announced a USD 800 million security assistance package to Ukraine which included the delivery of cluster munitions and other weapons to Kyiv. 

References
Lee Haye-ah, “(LEAD) Yoon makes surprise visit to Ukraine,” Yonhap News Agency, 15 July 2023
President of South Korea visits Bucha,” Ukrinform, 15 July 2023
South Korea to increase assistance to Ukraine to $150M,” Ukrinform, 15 July 2023
In the East, the situation has somewhat worsened,” Telegram, 16 July 2023
Putin discusses grain deal with South African president,” RT News, 15 July 2023
NATO sponsoring ‘nuclear terrorism’ – Moscow,” RT News, 15 July 2023
UNSC to hold meeting on Ukraine on July 17 to be attended by top diplomats,” TASS, 16 July 2023
US House of Representatives passes NDAA with $300M in aid for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 15 July 2023
Serbia sending humanitarian aid to Kherson, Ukraine,” n1info.rs, 15 July 202
Ukraine’s future is in NATO, U.S. national security adviser affirms,” Politico.eu, 16 July 2023
Lara Jakes, Andrew E Kramer and Eric Schmitt, “
After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy,” The New York Times, 15 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran, and Genesy Balasingam

RUSSIA
Lower House of Parliament passes bill to ban gender reassignment surgery 
On 14 July, the lower house of the Russian parliament approved a law that will ban trans people from accessing gender reassignment surgery in the country. It will also prohibit people from changing their gender on state documents. Speaker of the Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, stated that the bill will “protect our citizens and our children,” terming gender-affirming surgery a “path to the degeneration of the nation.” He further said: “We are the only European country that opposes all that is happening in the States, in Europe, and does everything to save families and traditional values…And we need to understand that there won't be any future if we don't adopt the law if we don't ban gender change.” Meanwhile, LGBT activists have condemned the move, calling out the state for depriving medical care and civil rights. (Matt Murphy, “Russian parliament bans gender reassignment surgery for trans people,” BBC, 15 July 2023) 

SPAIN
Wildfires slow down due to favorable weather conditions; relief efforts continue
On 16 July, officials reported that a change in weather conditions has led to the slowing down of the wildfire on La Palma in Spain’s Canary Islands. This has come as a relief to firefighters as the fires that began on 15 July have already affected an area of about 4600 hectares, burning down over 20 houses and buildings. Tourism Minister Héctor Gómez said that efforts to control the fire were proving effective. Over 300 firefighters and nine water-carrying helicopters have been deployed to prevent further damage. Furthermore, the army’s Military Emergency Unit sent 86 members to the islands to help. Authorities have alerted people to avoid the northwest side of the island. (Ciaran Giles, “Better weather conditions help slow down La Palma wildfire in Spain’s Canary Islands,” Associated Press, 16 July 2023) 

THE UK 
Government signs treaty to enter Indo-Pacific trade bloc 
On 16 July, the UK signed a treaty to enter the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It is being considered the most significant trade deal since Brexit. The signing occurred in Auckland, New Zealand, and was signed by Business Minister Kemi Badenoch. Badenoch said: “This is a modern and ambitious agreement and our membership in this exciting, brilliant, and forward-looking bloc is proof that the UK's doors are open for business.” She expressed her happiness at the UK getting a “seat at the table in the fastest-growing region.” However, critics have said that the benefits from the new deal hardly compare to the ones that the UK lost with Brexit. The pact will enter into effect in the later half of 2024. (“UK signs 'biggest trade deal' since Brexit,” Deutsche Welle, 16 July 2023) 

INTERNATIONAL 
EU leaders in Tunisia; announce developments in trade relations and migrant issue
On 16 July, leaders of the EU along with Tunisia’s President met in Tunisia to foster economic and trade ties. They also said that measures to tackle the migrant issue across the Mediterranean Sea were discussed. This is the second visit in a month's time for the heads of Italy, the Netherlands, and the European Commission. The leaders have signed a memorandum with Tunisia in the course of the latest visit. The Ursula Von der Leyen, European Commission’s President said that the memorandum was “a comprehensive package of measures that we will now put into practice swiftly.” She also announced a EUR 10 million program for student exchanges and EUR 65 million from the EU to modernize schools in Tunisia. Meanwhile, Tunisian President, Kais Saied said that he expects early implementation of the signed agreement. (“European Union and Tunisia announce progress in building economic and trade ties, and on migration,” Associated Press, 17 July 2023) 

Fisheries deal between EU and Morocco renewal challenged
On 16 July, Deutsche Welle reported that the Morocoo-EU fisheries deal will expire on 17 July, following which European trawlers will be barred from fishing off the Moroccan coast. In return for fishing rights, the EU has allocated USD 233 million to Morocco over the last four years. A spokesperson reported on the new development, said: “At the moment, there are no negotiations between the EU and Morocco over fishing rights,” adding that the partners were looking into possible renewal of the deal. However, renewing the deal could face complications due to the 2021 European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling which said that the coast off of Western Sahara was exempted from the fishery deal. Morocco considers Western Sahara as part of their territory. Morocco has also indicated that they are looking for a more beneficial deal with the EU. (Marina Strauss, “Morocco-EU fisheries deal set to expire,” Deutsche Welle, 16 July 2023)


14 July 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #570

War in Ukraine: Day 504

Photo : PBS/AP


War in Ukraine: Day 504
By Sreeja J S

War on the Ground
On 13 July, The Guardian reported on Pentagon's confirmation on the arrival of cluster munitions to Ukraine. According to the US, cluster munitions were critically needed ammunition for Kyiv to push back Russian forces. Joe Biden, US's President decided on 08 July to send them to Ukraine.

On 13 June, Ukrinform reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President and Cyril Ramaphosa, South  Africa's President, discussed the preparations for Global Peace Summit and the vital diplomatic steps to muster and consolidate African support for Ukraine. Noting the importance of extending the “grain corridor” Zelenskyy invited South Africa to join the Ukrainian Initiative Grain from Ukraine. Earlier in June, a delegation of African leaders led by Ramaphosa visited Ukraine as part of the African peacekeeping mission.

On 13 June, Deutsche Welle reported that over 20 people have got injured following a rocket fire in Zaporizhzhia. According to the local governor, Russian forces have shelled 14 numerous places in the city damaging dozens of buildings. Shellings were also reported in Kherson.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 July, TASS reported on Vladimir Putin, Russia's President comments on the Wagner group. He was quoted said: “The (Wagner) Group exists, but it is judicially non-existent.” He further said: “The formal legalization is a separate issue that should be addressed by the State Duma and the government. It’s a complicated issue.” Putin was answering a question about the group’s future from the viewpoint of Russian legislation.

On 13 July, TASS reported on Alexander Grushko, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister comment that Russia should fulfil the goals of its special military operation in Ukraine, strengthen its armed forces and bolster ties with its allies. He also added that “No matter what NATO does, it will fail. There is no way to reverse this process.” He was responding to the recently concluded NATO Summit in Vilnius on 11 and 12 July in an interview with Channel One.

On 13 July, in an interview with Lenta.ru, Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister said that the West’s move to supply F-16s to Ukraine is an “extremely dangerous development.” Lavrov said: “The US and its NATO satellites create the risk of a direct armed confrontation with Russia and this may lead to catastrophic consequences.” Earlier, along the sidelines of the NATO Summit, Denmark announced that a “coalition” of 11 countries would begin training for Ukrainian pilots to fly F16s. Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser of the US also mentioned that European countries would transfer F16s to Kyiv.

On 12 July, RT News reported that Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN proposed Putin extend the grain deal that is set to expire on 22 July in exchange for partial access to the SWIFT international payment system. According to the report, Russia wants its agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to get reconnected to SWIFT, pointing out the barriers caused due to restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance thwarting the shipments. EU is now considering connecting a subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT to allow grain and fertilizer exports. The grain deal was originally signed on 22 July 2022 but has been prolonged multiple times over the last year despite the concerns of Russia that it is not beneficial to Moscow.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 13 July, The Guardian reported that during a press conference following the US-Nordic summit in Helsinki with Sauli Niinisto, Joe Biden, President of the US was quoted saying there was “no real prospect of Putin using nuclear weapons.” He was responding to the question of whether Putin could escalate tensions in Ukraine after the failed Wagner mutiny.

On 13 July, The Guardian wrote that Barbara Woodward, UK envoy to the UN has accused Moscow of “cynical brinkmanship” for its unwillingness to extend the Black Sea grain initiative. She added that the failure to renew the deal could cause global food prices to soar and cause difficulty for middle-income countries and those suffering from starvation such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Somalia. According to The Guardian, Ukraine’s role as the breadbasket of the world could only be realized by protecting its exports westward through Poland.

References
Cluster munitions from the US arrive in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 13 July 2023
Zelensky discusses preparation for Global Peace Summit with President of South Africa,” Ukrinform, 13 July 2023
Over 20 injured in Zaporizhzhia after rocket fire,” Deutsche Welle, 13 July 2023
Wagner PMC formally non-existent, Putin says — media,” TASS, 13 July 2023
NATO summit shows Russia needs to meet special operation’s goals — diplomat,” TASS, 13 July 2023
UN chief proposes deal to Putin – Reuters,” RT News, 13 July 2023
Russia will treat F-16s in Ukraine as nuclear threat – Lavrov,” RT News, 13 July 2023
Biden says ‘no real prospect’ of Putin using nuclear weapons – as it happened,” The Guardian, 13 July 2023
Patrick Wintour, “Russia accused of ‘cynical brinkmanship’ over delays to grain deal renewal,” The Guardian, 13 July 2023


13 July 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #568

War in Ukraine: Day 503

Modi and Macron sign deal over Rafales and Scorpene submarines to India's Navy; Germany's new China strategy

Photo : Aurielien Morissard / AP Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 503
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 12 July, Fumio Kishida, Japan's Prime Minister announced that Tokyo would provide an Drone detection system to Kyiv. In March, Kishida promised USD 30 million as nonlethal defence equipment assistance to Ukraine through the NATO trust fund. The drone detection system would be provided through this framework.

On 12 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President met Olaf Scholz Germany's Chancellor in Vilnius. Following the meeting, Zelenskyy announced in his Telegram channel that agreements with Germany have been reached on additional Patriot launchers and missiles for them.

On 12 July, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister posted in Telegram that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have restrained the advance of Russian troops in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk. According to her Ukrainian troops advanced in Southern Bakhmut. In Southern Ukraine, the offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are underway. She noted that due to the destruction of many warehouses containing ammunition, Russian attacks had decreased.

On 12 July the Institute for the Study of War, quoting the report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Ukrainian counter-offensive operations are underway in Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk. According to the report, Ukrainian troops achieved partial success along the Bila Hora-Andriivka and Bila Hora-Kurdyumivka lines in the southwest of Bakhmut and in Berdyansk. They have also advanced near Orikkai-Vasylivna in the northwest of Bakhmut, southwest of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk, and south of Orikhiv in the west of Zaporizhzhia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 July, RT reported on Russia's Foreign Ministry's statement on the NATO Summit that was held in Vilnius. The report said that NATO intends to use Ukraine as a proxy for the endless hybrid war while expanding beyond the North - Atlantic into the Middle East, North Africa and Asia-Pacific. The statement concluded that Russia would respond "in a timely and appropriate manner, using all means and methods at our disposal."

On 12 July, TASS reported that Alexey Meshkov, Russian Ambassador to Paris condemned France's decision to send 50 SCALP long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv. He said: "What the French government did deserves the strongest condemnation."

On 12 July, TASS reported on Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council's comment that Russia's special military operation would continue with its goal unchanged. He added that one of the goals is the rejection of NATO membership by Kyiv.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 July, G7 countries presented a plan to organize bilateral, long-term security commitments to help Kyiv in its war against Russia. According to Politico, the US, the UK, France and Germany have been discussing with Kyiv how to create a common framework for all countries willing to provide financial and military aid. CNN outlined the three goals of the declaration. The first goal is to ensure a “sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future.” The declaration would look forward to strengthening Ukraine’s “economic stability and resilience and providing technical and financial support for Ukraine’s immediate needs. The report also added that the declaration would enable Kyiv to implement effective reform agenda to advance the good governance necessary for its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

On 12 July, CNN reported on Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia’s support for the US decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. She said: “We have to do everything to help Ukraine as long as it takes. And of course, when there is no more ammunition to give except cluster bombs, I think we have to give those as well.” She also expressed her support for Ukraine’s NATO membership bid and said that the opportunity may come after the war is over.

On 12 July, Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO chaired the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. He highlighted that NATO and Ukraine would meet in the Council “to discuss and decide as equals” afterwards. Later, he said that removing the Membership Action Plan (MAP) would change Ukraine’s membership path from a two-step process to a one-step process making Kyiv “closer to NATO than ever before.”

References
Japan to Provide Ukraine with Drone Detection System,” Nippon.com, 12 July 2023
Zelensky says agreement reached with Germany on additional Patriot launchers, missiles,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2023
Defense forces of Ukraine restrained the advance of Russian troops today in the Kupyan, Lyman, Avdiiv and Marin directions,” Telegram, 12 July 2023
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 12, 2023,” Institute for the Study of War, 12 July 2023
Moscow reacts to NATO summit,” RT News, 12 July 2023
Paris getting more and more indirectly involved in conflict with Moscow — Russian envoy,” TASS, 12 July 2023
Russia to continue special operation in Ukraine, goals unchanged — Medvedev,” TASS, 12 July 2023
Laura Kayali, “G7 countries pledge long-term support for Ukraine,” Politico.eu, 12 July 2023
Tara Subramaniam, Aditi Sngal, Adrienne Vogt, Tory B Powell, Maureen Chowdhury, Elise Hammond and Sana Noor Haq, “July 12, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news,” CNN, 12 July 2023
Secretary General concludes historic NATO Summit in Vilnius,” nato.int, 12 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Prerana P 

INTERNATIONAL
Biden celebrates Finland’s NATO bid and ensures guaranteed partnership
On 13 July, Joe Biden visited Europe showcased the international alliance, midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He stated that the US and the NATO member has emerged: “more united that ever.” Although Ukraine strived to be a part of the NATO military alliance, Biden assured long-term security and support without Kyiv’s entry. He added: “understand that this fight is not only a fight for the future of Ukraine,” and guaranteed itself as the reliable partner to NATO. US appreciated the Nordic nations and highlighted the effectiveness of Finland’s bid. Biden met with Zelenskyy and further reported that Zelenskyy: “ended up being very happy.” Biden embraced the concept of multilateralism, thereby building strong coalitions with the international communities. (“NATO alliance 'more united than ever,' says Biden, as he celebrates newest member Finland,” Euronews, 14 July 2023)

FRANCE
Modi and Macron sign deal over Rafales and Scorpene submarines to India's Navy
On 13 July, Prime Minister Modi visited President Macron as a guest of honour on the annual Bastille parade. France hoped to strengthen cooperation on various topics which includes military sales, and strategic Indo-Pacific region. During his speech, President Macron praised India calling the country a “key partner.” Further, Macron along with Modi would preside the upcoming annual military parade which marks France’s national day. Further, India’s Defence Acquisition Council has approved Rafales for the India's Navy, purchased three Scorpene submarines, developed by Spain and France, and the prices are well negotiated with the French. Further, in the Washington trip, the Human rights organizations questioned Modi’s status towards the country’s human right cases, to which Modi answered: “Democracy runs in our veins.” (Elaine Ganley, “India’s Modi is guest of honor at Paris Bastille Day parade as Macron rebuffs human rights critics,” AP, 14 July 2023)

GERMANY
Government draws up plan to limit engage with China
On 13 July, the government submitted a 64-page document detailing its strategy to interact with China. The document is part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition's pledge to design a comprehensive China strategy” in 2021. China is Germany’s biggest trade partner, and therefore ties with China are important. However, China’s refusal to condemn Russia for the Ukraine invasion, along with its growing assertiveness has been concerning to Germany. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated: “For Germany, China remains a partner, competitor and systemic rival, but the aspect of systemic rivalry has in recent years increasingly come to the fore…Anyone who listens to China knows with what self-confidence it will decisively influence the development of our world…China has changed and so our China policy must change too.” however, the government reaffirmed that with respect to economies, they were not looking at the “decoupling” of the two economies.’ (Geir Moulson, “Germany presents long-awaited strategy on China, stresses economic security,” AP, 13 July 2023)

SWEDEN
Supreme Court likely to dismiss the extradition of Turkish
On 13 July, the Supreme Court in Sweden opposed extradition of two Turkish citizens by Ankara. The court added that “the requirement of dual criminality” has not been met. Turkey demanded extradition and stated that the two people had joined the US based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen. The Sweden’s Supreme Court has added that the extradition might lead to risk towards persecution. The issue of extraditions was considered one of the key demands for Turkey, in order to accept Sweden’s bid into NATO alliance. Erdogan claimed Gulen for its failed coup and accused his network to be a terrorist organization. Sweden-Turkey has exchanged increased trade and investment agreements, yet Turkey and Hungary remain the only two countries which are yet to ratify Sweden’s bid into the NATO military alliance. (“Sweden's top court bars Turkey's extradition requests,” Deutsche Welle, 13 July 2023)

THE UK
No econmic growth reported in the last three months
On 13 July, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that over the last three months, Britain’s economy has “shown no growth.” The monthly GDP growth fell by 0.1 per cent in May, despite a slight 0.2 per cent rise in April. The ONS reported that for the month of May, factory output saw the biggest fall by 0.6 per cent, construction fell by 0.2 per cent and the services sector remained stagnant. The Scottish National Party responded to the data, saying; “The UK’s stagnating economy has continued to slip further and further behind that of the EU’s, as a direct result of the damaging Brexit.” Meanwhile, according to the European Commission, the EU’s economy is growing faster than the predicted growth levels, with member states achieving a 0.1 per cent average growth in 2023. (Sudesh Baniya, Joshua Askew, “Stagnant UK economy lagging behind EU, new figures show,” Euronews, 13 July 2023)

REGIONAL
EU to remove farm and fish import barriers from Japan
On 13 July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU has decided to lift the restrictions on farm and fish imports that it had imposed on Japan following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The announcement was made after the 29th EU-Japan summit in Brussels where Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida interacted with the European Commission president. Leyen stated: “We have taken this decision based on science and based on the proof of evidence and based on the assessment of the International Atomic Energy Agency and we also agreed to solve several other trade issues in the course of this year, in particular the access for our agricultural products to the Japanese market.” (Christopher Pitchers, “EU to lift Fukushima restrictions on food imports imposed after nuclear accident,” Euronews, 13 July 2023)

ENERGY
Scotland’s first commercial windfarm to be re-powered
On 13 July, BBC reported that Scotland’s first and oldest commercial wind farm, Hagshaw Hill, will begin shutting down turbines to begin “re-powering.” Scottish Power Renewables which owns Hagshaw Hill, will construct larger turbines that reach almost 140m in height. The new turbines are projected to be able to harness 10 times the power generated by the older turbines, with a capacity of six megawatts. The proposal to repower the wind farm was first submitted in December 2018, and approved in February 2020. Scottish Power Renewables CEO Charlie Jordan expressed his hope for the initiative, stating: “We've been operating this site for the best part of 30 years. We know everything about the site from an environmental perspective and we need to take the information and use it to accelerate planning of repowering projects.”  ( Douglas Fraser, “Hagshaw Hill: Turbines dismantled at Scotland's oldest wind farm,” BBC, 13 July 2023)


12 July 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #567

War in Ukraine: Day 502

Photo : Klaus-Dietmar Gabbert/dpa/picture alliance


War in Ukraine: Day 502
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 11 July, according to Ukrinform, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President expressed his discontent with the uncertainty prevailing over Ukraine’s NATO membership bid. He said that the wording of the conditions of the “invitation is being discussed without Ukraine.” He added; “It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership.” According to Ukrinform, Zelenskyy also said: “It seems there is no readiness nether to invite Ukraine to NATO not to make it a member of the Alliance.” He called the prevailing uncertainty a “weakness” and said that he would openly discuss this at the summit.

On 11 July, Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's Defence Minister announced on Twitter that France would increase its military aid to Kyiv by EUR 170 million. According to the agreement signed between the defence ministries of both countries, the procurement process and the supply of weapons would be simplified. It would also provide a  framework for the joint production of spare parts and maintenance of foreign weapons and equipment.

On 11 July, the General staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook that Russian forces have fired numerous Iranian-made Shahed drones into Ukrainian territory. Heavy battles are going on in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk. Russia is maintaining a military presence in Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi and is engaged in airstrikes in Volfyny, Sumy and Bakhmut. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting offensive operations in Melitopol and Berdyansk. The report also mentioned that certain units of the  Armed Forces of Belarus are “performing tasks in the areas bordering Ukraine.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 July, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson said that Russia would continue dialogue with African countries on ways to settle the situation in Ukraine. Earlier in June, Putin was engaged in talks with the seven African leaders who visited Moscow to discuss settling the conflict in Ukraine.

On 11 July, Valentina Matviyenko, Speaker of the Russian Federation Council during her visit to China criticized Washington's decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. According to TASS, she said that the decision amounts to a “war crime” and that it “runs counter to all international documents.” She further remarked that the Federation Council has called upon the parliaments of other countries to ensure that “everyone condemns such a criminal decision” and measures are taken to prevent the delivery of cluster munitions.

On 11 July, RT reported that Sergey Shoigu, Defence Minister of Russia said that if the US supplies cluster munitions to Kyiv, the Russian Armed Forces would be “compelled to use equivalent weapons against the Ukrainian Forces” as a response. He noted that Russia is also not a party to the Convention of Cluster Munitions and Moscow refrained from using these weapons because of the threat they pose to the civilian population. Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to Washington also criticized the move by calling it an “act of madness” and a gesture of  desperation.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 11 July, Jens Stoltenberg,  NATO's Secretary General said that the alliance did not record any deployment or movement of any Wagner forces into Belarus. According to Ukrinform, Stoltenberg assured that the alliance is always ready to protect its members from any potential threat.

On 11 July, the Norwegian government pledged an additional NOK 2.5 billion of military aid to Ukraine along the sidelines of the NATO summit.

On 11 July, Deutsche Welle reported that a coalition of 11 nations would start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in Denmark in August. A training centre would be put up in Romania. NATO members Denmark and Netherlands have been leading efforts through an international jet coalition to maintain F-16 fighter jets, train pilots and support staff and finally supply the jets to Ukraine. According to the report, none of the countries have committed to sending the jets to Ukraine, though Poland and Slovakia have supplied 27 MiG-29s to Kyiv.

References
Zelensky: Conditions of invitation to NATO being discussed in Vilnius without Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 11 July 2023
Operational information as of 18.00 on 11.07.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,,” Ukrinform, 11 July 2023
Russia to continue dialogue with Africa on Ukrainian settlement — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 11 July 2023
Russian senate speaker says sending cluster munitions to Ukraine would be war crime,” TASS, 11 July 2023
Russia warns US about cluster bombs,” RT News, 11 July 2023
NATO doesn't record any movement of "Wagnerites" to Belarus,” 11 July 2023
Ukrainian pilots' F-16 training to start in August,” Deutsche Welle, 11 July 2023
Norway boosts military pledge by over €200 million for Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 11 July 2023
James Landale and James Gregory, “Nato summit: Allies refuse to give Ukraine timeframe on joining,” BBC, 11 July 2023


11 July 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #566

War in Ukraine: Day 501

Russia estimates 2,200 foreign fighters to be present in Ukraine; El Nina heat waves intensifies; Formalization of the EU-US Data Privacy Framework

Photo : AFP / Sergei SUPINSKY


War in Ukraine: Day 501
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 10 July, Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine wrote on Twitter that NATO allies have agreed to remove the Membership Action Plan (MAP) from Ukraine's path to membership. He welcomed the decision, and urged NATO to offer clarity on the invitation. MAP is a NATO program to advise, assist and provide practical support to individual countries wishing to join the alliance. 

On 10 July, Yonhap News Agency reported that South Korea had dispatched additional military supplies to Ukraine at Kyiv’s request. Previously, Seoul has provided humanitarian and military logistics support to Kyiv. The decision comes as Yoon Suk Yeol, President of South Korea is attending NATO Summit in Vilnius.

On 10 July, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote on Facebook that the Russian forces have launched 22 airstrikes and 30 rocket salvo systems in Mykolaiv destroying civilian infrastructure. Heavy fights are underway in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk. Ukrainian Forces continue to repel attacks in Bakhmut and Avdiyiv and conduct offensive actions in Melitopol and Berdyansk. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 10 July, RT reported that according to Vladimir Artyakov, Deputy CEO of Rostec defence conglomerate, Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have been put into mass production. According to RT, Artyakov assured that modern air defence systems cannot intercept these missiles. He also refuted Kyiv's claims that it has intercepted a dozen of these missiles by calling them “propaganda.” 

On 10 July, the Russian Defence Ministry estimated the number of foreign fighters in Ukraine and said that only 2,200 mercenaries remain out of the 11,675 recruited. According to the statement, the largest number of foreign combatants are from Poland, followed by the US, Canada, Georgia, the UK, Romania, France and a few Syria’s territories under Turkey’s control. A total of 4,485 foreign combatants died in battle and 4.801 fled Ukraine while 2,209 are still on active duty. According to the spokesperson, Kyiv is increasing its efforts to recruit mercenaries from Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. RT added that the ministry also alleged Kyiv for mistreating foreign mercenaries and viewing them like “cannon fodder.”

On 10 July, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov said that Russian forces have destroyed Ukrainian ammunition depots in Nikolayev and Kramatorsk. They have also destroyed a command post of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanized brigade near Orekhov. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 10 July, Ukrinform reported on Germany’s stance that Ukraine's invitation to NATO's summit in Vilnius is unlikely, but it would significantly intensify relations and increase the level of partnership between Kyiv and the alliance. This summit would also signal a strong message to Moscow about the allies' determination to support Ukraine. The German leadership also expects a “significant deepening of the partnership.” The report also said that Germany would announce new arms shipments to Ukraine at the summit. 

On 10 July, Deutsche Welle reported that according to Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor of the US, Kyiv has provided written guarantees that the cluster munitions would be used “in a very careful way.” Colin Kahl, the US under-secretary for Defence added that they would not be used in the heavily populated urban areas and there would be a careful accounting of where they are employed.  

On 10 July, according to Deutsche Welle, Julius Beucher, President of Germany’s National Paralympic Committee (DBS) called for banning athletes from Russia and Belarus as long as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues. The International Paralympic Committee (IPC) is due to vote in September 2023 on whether to allow athletes from Russia and Belarus to compete in events including Paralympics in 2024 in Paris. 

References
NATO allies reached consensus on removing MAP from Ukraine's path to membership - Kuleba,” Ukrinform, 10 July 2023
Chae Yun-Hwan, “S. Korea sends additional military supplies bound for Ukraine,” Yonhap News Agency, 10 July 2023
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “Operational information as of 18.00 on 10.07.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 10 July 2023
Tuqa Khalid, “Ukraine’s Zelenskyy vows to bolster Belarus border defenses against potential threats,” Alarabiya News, 10 July 2023
Russia now ‘mass producing’ hypersonic missiles – Rostec,” RT News, 10 July 2023
Russia estimates number of foreign fighters in Ukraine,” RT News, 10 July 2023
Ukraine stepping up mercenary recruitment effort – Russian MOD,” RT News, 10 July 2023
Russian Defense Ministry reveals number of mercenaries among Ukrainian troops,” TASS, 10 July 2023
Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian ammo depots in Kramatorsk, Nikolayev — top brass,” TASS, 10 July 2023
NATO will increase level of partnership with Ukraine - source,” Ukrinform, 10 July 2023
Germany's National Paralympic Committee wants Russia, Belarus ban,” Deutsche Welle, 10 July 2023
White House received written assurances from Kyiv over cluster bombs,” Deutsche Welle, 10 July 2023


In Brief
By Prerana P

LATVIA
Canada to station more troops under NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence 
On 10 July, Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš hosted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius. Prime Minister Trudeau announced that the Canadian forces under NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) in Latvia would be doubled in number. The Defence Ministers of both nations signed an agreement at the Adaži base to reaffirm Canada’s commitment. PM Trudeau further said that the other allies part of the eFP would also increase their brigade size in Latvia. The deployment in Latvia has been Canada’s most significant overseas stationing of brigades since the eFP was instituted in 2017. Furthermore, Canadian forces are the largest overseas presence in Latvia. (“Canada to double its military presence in Latvia,” ERR News, 11 July 2023) 
 
NORWAY
Extends participation in NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania till 2024
On 10 July, Government.no reported that the government has decided to continue the participation of Norwegian forces in NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) in Lithuania till 2024. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre stated: “The decision to extend the participation of Norwegian troops when there is an ongoing war in Europe is not a decision the Government takes lightly…Sharing knowledge and experience serves to enhance both our own Armed Forces and NATO.”  Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram also informed that this was the largest deployment of Norwegian forces beyond the country. The EFP program began in 2017 and comprises four multinational battalions deployed in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland. The Norwegian contribution is a part of Germany’s multinational battalion in Lithuania. (“Norway will continue to contribute Norwegian forces in Lithuania,” Government.no, 10 July 2023) 
 
NETHERLANDS
Prime Minister to step away from politics after elections
On 10 July, BBC reported that Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte informed the Dutch Parliament that he would be leaving politics following the elections. The Dutch government collapsed on 7 July when the PM resigned following a lack of consensus among the ruling coalition over migration policies. New elections are scheduled to be held in November. The PM currently leads the caretaker government. Meanwhile, two left-wing parties and a far-right party have introduced a no-confidence motion against Rutte. However, it requires the support of at least one of the coalition parties of the collapsed government to pass. (Robert Plummer, “Dutch PM Mark Rutte to quit politics after government collapse,” BBC, 10 July 2023) 
 
SPAIN
86 rescued after vessel gone missing in transit to Spain through boat

On 10 July, Spain’s Maritime Rescue Service reportedly rescued 80 men and six women, while searching for a migrant vessel. However, the Spanish authorities hasn’t confirmed if it is one of the three vessels, which went on sail from Senegal to Canary Islands. The authorities have warned West Africa and Canary Islands to lookout for the migrants who are still missing. Three boats which took off its sail from Senegal to Spain, have been missing for 15 days and carried over 300 people. The Rescue spokesperson added that the migrants left Senegal due to the country’s instability. According to the United Nations International Organisation for Migration data, a minimum of 559 people died during their attempt to reach Canary Islands. The sub-Saharan Africans often use the deadliest Atlantic migration passage and over 951 migrants have died during the voyage. Although the Spanish authorities stated that there have been fewer boats since last six months, the number of deaths remained high. (“Spain rescues 86 in search for missing migrant vessels,” Deustche Welle, 10 July 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Erdogan and Viktor Orban approve Sweden’s bid to NATO
On 10 July, Erdogan declared a list of demands to be fulfilled to finally back Sweden’s accession into NATO military alliance. He has stated the need for EU to consider Turkey’s accession in return to the Sweden’s bid to NATO. Erdogan added: “First open the way for Turkey’s membership of the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland.” Although the deal talks began in 2005, it was put on hold in 2016 due to democratic sliding, human rights and abuse provocations under Erdogan. German Chancellor has criticised stating that Sweden’s bid shouldn’t be tied with Turkey’s EU membership bid. EU Commission spokesperson added a similar statement: “You cannot link the two processes in regards to Turkey.” Hungary has signalled green light and has approved Sweden’s membership. Talks between the leaders of Sweden and Turkey will occur on the eve of the NATO summit to be held in Lithuania. (“Erdogan: Let Turkey in EU if you want Sweden in NATO,” Deutsche Welle, 10 July 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Over 61,000 Europeans died due to summer heat in 2022
On 10 July, The Guardian reported on a new study that estimated that over 61,000 people across Europe died due to heatwaves between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal recorded the highest mortality rate. However, heatstrokes were the reason for a small percentage of the deaths. In a majority of cases, the heat exacerbated a person’s existing health issues, leading to death. The high death tolls in the last year have been attributed to the extreme temperatures that worsened due to climate change. The 2022 summer was also the hottest summer recorded in Europe. (Ajit Niranjan, “Heatwave last summer killed 61,000 people in Europe, research finds,” The Guardian, 10 July 2023) 
 
El Nina heat waves intensely spreads across Europe 
On 10 July, the World Meteorological Organization reported July to be the hottest week with global average peak at 17.08 Celsius. El Nina, a natural climate phenomenon caused severe warmer oceans in the central and eastern tropical pacific oceans and the WMO added: “The world just had the hottest week on record, according to preliminary data.” France recorded the highest temperatures of 38 degree Celsius and was called the “non-exceptional heatwave” for the season. Similarly, the German Weather Service (DWD) recorded 38 degrees Celsius and it was considered the hottest year ever, measured by Copernicus. Europe witnessed over 61,000 heat-deaths, highly found among the older people, weapon and in Mediterranean countries. Further, France warned the public to avoid alcohol and has encouraged drinking water. (“First week of July was the ‘hottest on record,’ says UN weather agency,” Euronews, 10 July 2023)
 
ENVIRONMENT
Volcano erupts near Reykjavik, Iceland; third eruption in the region in last two years 
On 10 July, The Guardian reported that a volcano near Iceland’s capital, Reykjavik, has erupted. A statement from the country’s Meteorological office said: “The eruption is taking place in a small depression just north of Litli Hrútur, from which smoke is escaping in a north-westerly direction.” Thousands of small earthquakes had been recorded in the surrounding region last week, which indicated the imminence of the volcanic eruption. This is the third eruption in the region in the last two years, following the 19 March 2021 eruption in Geldingadalur Valley and the 3 August 2022 eruption in Meradalir Valley. The region had remained dormant for eight centuries until the 2021 eruption. Volcanologists have estimated that the three eruptions in the last two years indicate the beginning of a new cycle of increased activity. (“Smoke clouds and lava as volcano erupts near Icelandic capital,” The Guardian, 10 July 2023) 
 
MIGRATION
Charity SOS rescues migrants in the Mediterranean Sea
On 11 July, BBC reported that a dark blue inflatable boat was spotted in the Mediterranean Sea and rescue workers from charity SOS quickly rescued the migrants on board. The crowd with boys and young men from Tripoli, have been at seat for over 15 hours. The group underwent medical check-ups and received basic supplies. Italian authorities alerted the charity to move towards “without delay.” The migrants stated that this was not their first time at reaching Europe and most of them have changed their names. A teenager stated: “It's either you reach Europe or you die at sea.” Most of the them were from Gambia with over 80 per cent of the group consisted of unaccompanied minors, aged under 18. From 2015-2020, over 32,000 Gambians used the irregular migration routes to arrive Europe and Central Mediterranean is the primary route to EU. The migrants described that the stayed in places led by smugglers, some claimed to have worked for the smugglers, while some are unaware about the dangerous voyage. (“‘Europe or death’ - the teenage migrants risking it all to cross the Med,” BBC, 11 July 2023)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Authors and companies sue OpenAI and Meta for copyright
On 10 July, The Guardian reported that the US comedian and author Sarah Silverman, along with other two authors, Christopher Golden and Richard Kadrey, sued OpenAI and Meta for copyright infringement to have developed an AI that uses their work as a part of training. The lawsuit claimed: “did not consent to the use of their copyrighted books as training material for ChatGPT. Nonetheless, their copyrighted materials were ingested and used to train ChatGPT.” The OpenAI was accused to have summarised three book. The authors claimed to have received various news on the tool’s “uncanny” ability to generate text to similar copyrighted material. Other US authors, Mona Awad and Paul Tremblay have also sued lawsuit against the OpenAI to have trained ChatGPT without getting author’s consent. Further Getty Images, the stock photo company for the similar allegations. Media has approached OpenAI and Meta for further comments. (Dan Milmo, “Sarah Silverman sues OpenAI and Meta claiming AI training infringed copyright,” The Guardian, 10 July 2023)
 
The EU-US data transfer paves way for transatlantic data flow
On 10 July, European Commission formalized the EU-US Data Privacy Framework, which provides a new legal framework for transatlantic data flow. The transfer of personal data from EU to the US was considered by the Court of Justice of the European Union. The EC Justice Didier Reynders stated: “personal data can now flow freely and safely from the Economic Area to the US.” The data adequacy decision has a significant addition which states that the initial draft of an organisation should not comply towards European data protection authority, instead it should be flagged to the US Department of Commerce and Federal Trade Commission. The intelligence services, that decides the adequacy decision will stay under the supervision of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, which will be reviewed later by the Commission. However, the final adequacy decision received immense criticism, notably towards the rights of data subject, data transfers and bulk data collection. Commissioner Reynders has expressed the need for a complete test of the system before taking it to the court, while the new deal gets suspended. (Julia Tar, “EU Commission adopts new EU-US data transfer framework,” Euractiv, 10 July 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL 
Spain court shelves Pegasus investigation due to non-cooperation from Israel 
On 10 July, a Spanish court ended investigations into the Pegasus spyware hacking of minister’s phones citing a “complete” lack of cooperation from Israel. The judge, José Luis Calama, said that in 2021, he had formally requested international judicial assistance from the Israeli government, seeking information about the software that was created by the Israel-based NSO group. The investigations began in May 2022 after the Spanish government alleged that the spyware had been used to infiltrate the phones of top politicians including Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Defence Minister Margarita Robles, and Interior Minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska. The court stated that the lack of communication from the Israeli government despite four requests for assistance meant that “all that remains is a possible diplomatic channel capable of promoting compliance with the obligations derived from international treaties.”  (“Spain closes Pegasus investigation over ‘lack of cooperation’ from Israel,” The Guardian, 10 July 2023) 


10 July 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #565

The Netherlands government collapsed: Why now, and What next? | War in Ukraine: Day 499 & 500

Photo : REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

The Netherlands: The government has collapsed. Why now, and What next?
On 10 July, Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced his exit from politics after the next election, following the government collapse over immigrant regulation.

On 07 July, Rutte announced his resignation after the unsuccessful rounds of negotiation over asylum policy. His conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party has been attempting to reduce the inflow of asylum seekers to 200 per month since the issue over overcrowding of migration centres sparked in 2022. Whereas his coalition parties, Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Christian Union, and the D66, opposed the move leading to the collapse of the government coalition. Rutte said: "All parties went to great lengths to find a solution, but the differences on migration are unfortunately impossible to bridge." Since 2022, the number of asylum application had increased one-third (47,000), and as per government reports, 70,000 are expected to apply in 2023.

What is the two-tier asylum system proposed by the VVD?
The VVD party’s demand to create a “two-tier” system for asylum seekers was agreed, but the consensus broke over “family re-unification.”

The two-tier system proposed the creation of two classes of asylum seekers. A temporary one to include those people escaping from conflict zones, who can return when the conflict is over. Next is a permanent one for people fleeing from trial (death list or sexual orientation). Apart from this categorisation, the VVD also aims to bring down the number of migrants in Netherlands’ by restricting the family members who can join the asylum seekers. This includes limiting the number of children of war refugees in Netherlands’ and adds a waiting period of two years for the family to re-unite. This was aimed at tapering the asylum policy by VVD and CDA.

Immigration: Why it is an issue now?
This is not a new issue. The concern over migration has been present for long time in Netherlands.

According to the statistics from the Immigration & Naturalisation Service (IND) of the Netherlands, most of the resident permit application had come from India, China, the US, and Turkey. The count decreased during COVID-19 and then increased by 2021. It also reported a massive hike in the number of application for Dutch citizenship, increasing from 43,660 in 2020 to 59,680 in 2021. These were majorly from Syria, Eritrea, and India.

To address the increasing immigration and the issue of inadequate shelters, the Dutch government took measures to limit the influx. It ruled that families of “permit holders,” who do not have an accommodation will not be allowed to travel. At the same time, it ordered the municipalities to create shelters for the existing asylum seekers with “residence permit.” If the permit holder is not allotted a residence by 15 months, will still be given a visa, the waiting period was viewed to help the “Immigration and Naturalization Service” to screen the permit applications.

According to Saskia Bonjour, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam stated that the move was illegal as per European Directive as the longer the children of the immigrant families stay apart the more harmful it is. Stating the similar reason, the Rutte’s coalition parties withdrew their support.

What next after the collapse?
Similar to other European leaders such as Spain’s far-right Vox party, Sweden Democrats, France’s Marine Le Pen, Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Melonia, Rutte took the anti-immigration stance.

The collapse the government means new elections which is likely to take place in November, until which Rutte will head the caretaker government. Rutte being the longest served prime minister faces the fallouts of the broken coalition, but this is not the first time. In 2021, the cabinet resigned over failure of the government to guard people from tax inspectors and in time has earned the anger of farmers over announcement of reducing nitrogen pollution. Now, with the crack over migration policy, Rutte still stands a chance as the coalition partners CDI and Christian Union do not have enough support to become a majority, while opposition party “Farmer-Citizen Movement” still needs a big leap to push from second place to win VVD.

In terms of the migration policy, the VVD will have to let go of the new measures to tighten the immigrant influx until there is support.

References:
Claire Moses, “
What You Need to Know About the Dutch Government Collapse,” The New York Times, 08 July 2023
Claire Moses and Dan Bilefsky, “
Dutch Government Collapses Over Plan to Further Limit Immigration,” The New York Times, 07 July 2023
Netherlands: Rising immigration and new government initiatives,” European Commission, 25 September 2022
Cabinet agrees on limiting the influx of asylum seekers, putting the brakes on family reunification,” nos.nl, 26 August 2022
Peter Rodrigues, and Job Cohen, “
Two status system in asylum policy is a divisive issue,” universiteitleiden.n, 17 May 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 499 & 500
By Sneha Surendran

War on the Ground
On 08 July, NPRI reported on Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, commemorating the 500th day of the Russia-Ukraine war on Snake Island in the Black Sea. In a video statement, Zelenskyy said: “I want to thank — from here, from this place of victory — each of our soldiers for these 500 days…Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!” 

On 08 July, The Guardian reported that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is uncertain ahead of the military alliance’s summit on 11 July in Vilnius, Lithuania. The difficulty in joining as a member comes after the US and Germany withdrew support to join the alliance while the war is ongoing. Ukraine’s Foreign Secretary remarked that the summit in Vilnius would be a “unique moment” to gain “clarity on Ukraine’s accession invitation.”


The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 July, RadioFreeEurope reported that Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, had visited the Southern Military District where he inspected soldiers, and supervised the training of new units. This was Shoigu’s first public appearance since the Wagner troop's rebellion last month. 

On 08 July, TASS reported that Russia has called for a UNSC meeting on 11 July to converse regarding the Nord Stream Pipeline explosions.  First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, informed about the request, stating: “We will strike another blow at the Westerners' policy that the attention from Denmark, Germany and Sweden is enough to investigate this crime and no international effort is needed to find the culprits.” 

On 09 July, TASS reported on the Governor of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov’s, statement that air defence forces had downed a cruise missile near Kerch. Aksyonov further said that there had been no damage or casualties. He urged the people to maintain peace and trust only legitimate sources.

On 10 July, NHK World-Japan reported that the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Turkey, Sergey Lavrov and Hakan Fidan, had a phone conversation where the former demanded an explanation for the release of five former Ukrainian commanders from Turkey to Ukraine. The five commanders were from the Azov battalion which had fought in Mariupol last year and had been captured by Russian forces. However, they had been in Turkey since a prisoner swap mediated by Turkey. The ministers also discussed the Black Sea grain deal, which is set to expire on 17 July.


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 09 July, President of the US, Joe Biden, said that Ukraine was not ready to join NATO as it entails a long procedure from “democratization to a whole range of other issues.” However, Ukraine is expected to receive long-term military aid assurances from the US, UK, France, and Germany at the summit. 

On 07 July, Deutsche Welle reported that on the commemoration of the 500th day of the Russia-Ukraine war, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the US’s support to Ukraine. Blinken stated: “Ukrainians have fought bravely to defend their country, freedom and right to determine their own future. The US will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to achieve a just and durable peace.” 

On 07 July, Deutsche Welle reported on the survey results of a research institute which said that 42 per cent of Germans were in favour of Ukraine joining NATO after the war ended while only 13 per cent of the respondents were in favour of immediate accession. 29 per cent were not in favour of Ukraine joining NATO at all. 58 per cent wanted Russia and Ukraine to begin talks to end the war immediately while 26 per cent were against peace talks. 

On 08 July, Reuters reported on Poland’s Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak’s statement that over 1000 troops had been deployed to the country’s eastern borders in response to concerns over the Wagner troop's presence in Belarus. 200 units of equipment are also being sent. Blaszczak said: “This is a demonstration of our readiness to respond to attempts at destabilization near the border of our country.” 

On 09 July, BBC reported that the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Spain have all expressed their opposition to the USA’s decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said cluster bombs were “indiscriminate, they cause huge damage to innocent people, potentially, and they can have a long-lasting effect as well.” Spain’s Defence Minister Margarita Robles said that while Ukraine had to be defended, cluster bombs could not be sent. Both UK and Canada reaffirmed their commitment to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. 

On 09 July, Politico reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had informed U.S. President Joe Biden that Sweden’s progress was not satisfactory enough to warrant Turkey’s support to them for NATO accession. An official statement from Turkey said: “Erdoğan stated that Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction by making changes in the anti-terrorism legislation.” However, the presence of supporters of “terrorist organizations” banned in Turkey invalidated these steps.   

On 10 July, Biden landed in Britain to meet King Charles III and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before heading to the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The White House statement said that the visit would “further strengthen the close relationship” between the allies. 

References
Zelenskyy hails Ukraine's soldiers from a Black Sea island to mark 500 days of war,” NPR, 08 July 2023
Dan Sabbagh, “
Ukraine pessimistic about joining Nato ahead of Vilnius summit,” The Guardian, 09 July 2023
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu Shown Inspecting Troops,” Radio Free Europe, 08 July 2023
Russia requests UNSC meeting on July 11 over explosions at Nord Stream pipeline,” TASS, 08 July 2023
Russia and Turkey discuss release of Ukrainian commanders, grain deal,” NHK World-Japan, 09 July 2023
Russian paramilitaries planning further operations in border area,” Ghana News Agency, 09 July 2023
Cruise missile shot down by air defense near Kerch, no casualties – Crimean governor,” TASS, 09 July 2023
Russia calls on NATO to discuss Ukraine nuclear plant at summit,” The Japan Times, 09 July 2023
Ukraine: Mariupol commanders return home with Zelenskyy,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023
Poland moves troops to eastern border amid Wagner fears,” Reuters, 09 July 2023
Cluster bombs: Unease grows over US sending cluster bombs to Ukraine,” BBC, 09 July 2023
Gabriel Gavin, “
Sweden still not ready for NATO, Erdoğan tells Biden,” Politico, 09 July 2023
Biden visits Britain ahead of NATO summit,” The Australian, 10 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Prerana P

FRANCE
Attack on Mayors indicates the break in democracy
On 09 July, French top intelligence has warned about the of the far-right violent action. Nicolas Lerner, the French Director General of Internal Security (DGSI) called the incident, “a very worrying resurgence of violent action” and claimed to bring break in the democratic framework. The attack targeted mayors of Saint-Brevin-Pins, asylum seekers and refugees. He accused that since 2017, the far-right group has executed ten planned terrorist attacks. He stated that the far-left protest against environmental issues such as the protest against the proposed water shortage mega basins and called the action a “legitimate battle.” In reply to the Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin’s statement which called “eco-terrorists,” Lerner explained that “no action” of terrorist nature has been committed though he added that few agencies remain “vigilant.” Regarding the Islamist terrorism, Lerner emphasized on the increasing radicalisation of individuals in Europe and Central Asia, especially from the terrorist organisations of Syria and Afghanistan. (“Far-right violence on the march again, warns French intelligence chief,” Euronews, 09 July 2023)

GERMANY
Australia signs the largest export deal, that can elevate the economy
On 10 July, a meeting was scheduled between Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister of Australia and Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor. Australia has agreed to sign one of the largest defence export deals, which will deliver 100 Brisbane- made Boxer heavy weapons carriers to Germany. He added that the deal would enhance defence capability and boost economy. He pointed that the German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall made vehicles sales cost more than USD one billion to the Australian economy. The one-on-one meeting between the prime ministers will soon take place, where the leaders are expected to discuss on the manufacturing, clean energy, security in the Indo-Pacific region and about the war in Ukraine. Jason Clare, Member of the Australian House of Representative has announced that the country would provide a support package of USD 110 million to Ukraine. He added: “At the moment we are the biggest non-NATO investor or supporter of the effort in Ukraine, except for Sweden, who is about to become part of NATO.” Australian Prime Minister has pointed out that NATO is diverting from its purpose as European and US Alliance. (“Anthony Albanese announces $1bn defence deal with Germany before NATO talks,” The Guardian, 09 July 2023)

THE UK
Discussion on the US’s supply of cluster bombs to Ukraine
On 10 July, a meeting will be held between Biden and Rishi Sunak where the leaders are expected to discuss on various issues including the war in Ukraine. US has decided its call send cluster bombs to Ukraine due to its dwindling weapon stocks. UK has not directly criticised US but stated that UK is one among the 123 countries which signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions treaty which bans the production of the weapons.

New Zealand further added that the munition could bring: “huge damage to innocent people.” Canada, Spain and other NATO allies has opposed and distanced from US’s decision. US claimed to have received written reassurances from Kyiv that the troop will not use the weapons in Russia or other areas. US seeks support from UK to help broker a deal with Turkey on Sweden’s bid. Ukraine is expected to attend this week’s summit and has requested on the signal to join the NATO alliance after the war. (Kathryn Armstrong and James FitzGerald, “Joe Biden in UK to meet Sunak and King Charles amid Ukraine concerns,” BBC, 10 July 2023)

SPAIN
Boat carrying 200 people from Senegal is reportedly missing
On 10 July, BBC reported on the missing migrant boat which sailed from southern Senegal. The Spanish rescuers are searching for a boat which carried around 200 African migrants off the Canary Islands. The boat reportedly carried many children and the Spanish maritime rescue service has joined the search. The route from West Africa to the Canary Island is considered to be the dangerous routes for migrants as the boats are usually use the simple dugout fishing boats. The UN International Organisation for Migration (IOM) stated: “Last year at least 559 people died at sea attempting to reach the Spanish islands.” The IOM added that the usage of such dangerous routes has remained high compared to previous years. (“Migrant boat from Senegal carrying 200 people missing off Canary Islands,” BBC, 10 July 2023)

GEORGIA
The far-right wing disrupts the Georgia Pride event
On 08 July, over 2,000 anti-LGBT protesters protested and stormed across the gay pride festival, held in the capital city of Georgia. The right-wing protesters, which included Orthodox Christian clergy burnt the rainbow flag. President Salome Zurabishvili blamed on the Georgian Dream party which failed to condemn its followers from violent aggressions. Interior Minister Alexander Darakhvelidze said: “This was an open area, participants of the protest managed to bypass the security and find other ways to enter the event area.” A similar protest had disrupted a Pride festival in Georgia in 2001. The organiser of the 2023 Pride event stated that far-right group had been “openly inciting violence,” and complained that the Ministry of Interior and the police did not do anything. (“Georgia Pride festival in Tbilisi stormed by right-wing protesters,” BBC, 09 July 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
The delay in the ratification of EU-ACP treaty
On 07 July, Euractiv reported on the treaty that governed the relation between the EU and other 89 members of African, Caribbean and Pacific countries which still remain unratified. The Austrian Social Democrat MEP stated that it’s been two years of delayed ratification, could build mistrust between the nations. He further added that it can halt the developing partnerships keeping the countries and the EU under hostage. Hungarian government secured assurances from the European Commission of not interfering into the migration and sexual rights from governments. The EU and (African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States) ACP has confirmed on the four-month extension of the existing treaty. The Commission further will invest EUR 100 million to Tunisia, with regard to the anti-smuggling activities, border management and migrant and rescue operations. Heide questioned on the need to invest money on autocratic states, and claimed that these countries don’t use it for democratic process. On 06 July, the NGO Human Rights Watch has reported on the expel of hundreds of Sub-Saharan African migrants at the Libyan border. The EU pledged to provide technical, logistical and monetary support to the Libyan returned migrants. (Benjamin Fox, “Polish deadlock on EU-Africa treaty is holding relationship ‘hostage’,” Euractiv, 07 July 2023)


08 July 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #564

War in Ukraine: Day 498

Geneva hosts the first-ever AI press conference; Dutch Parliament collapses; Switzerland and Austria signs a declaration to join Sky Shield

Photo : BBC


War in Ukraine: Day 498
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 07 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, visited Bratislava and met Zuzana Caputova, President of Slovakia. According to CNA, the Presidents discussed the situation along the frontlines and the upcoming NATO Summit (11 July and 12 July 2023), at which Kyiv is seeking an invitation to join the alliance. 

On 07 July, FARS News Agency reported that Human Rights Watch (HRW) expressed concern that Washington is considering supplying cluster munitions to Kyiv. HRW said: “Transferring these weapons would inevitably cause long-term suffering and undermine the international opprobrium of their use.” According to the report, cluster munitions are banned in more than 100 countries due to their deadly impact, posing serious risks for many years even after the war is over. 

On 07 July, Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN, highlighted the Black Sea deal that allows the safe export of food and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports and facilitates Russia’s similar exports across the Black Sea. Farhan Haq, spokesperson of the UN, reiterated the institution’s commitment to work for the progress of the deal to ensure global food security. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 July, Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson of the Kremlin, said that Zelenskyy’s meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey, was “important” and would closely follow the result of these talks. 

On 07 July, RT reported that Moscow withdrew consent to Finland’s operation of a consulate general in St Petersburg and expelled nine Finnish diplomats from the country. According to the statement, the consulate would cease its operations from 01 October. Previously, Finland expelled nine diplomats from the Russian embassy in Finland accusing them of acting “contrary to the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations.” According to RT, Moscow claimed Helsinki was disrupting economic ties and people-to-people relations between the two countries, discriminating against Russians and creating barriers for Russian diplomats. Sauli Niinisto, President of Finland called Moscow’s measures “harsh and asymmetric.”

On 06 July, RT reported on Peskov’s comments on Zelenskyy’s visit to Bulgaria. According to the report he said: “The Kyiv regime is doing its best to drag as many countries directly into this conflict as possible.” He added that these discussions and their outcomes cannot influence the “outcome of the special military operation.” 

On 07 July, RT said that Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, has announced that Wagner troops could be used to defend Belarus after their relocation from Russia. The fighters are being transferred to Belarus, subject to “certain conditions,” including the ability to be deployed instantly if needed to “defend the state.” Lukashenko added that he is not worried about the presence of Wagner troops in Belarus, as he believes that they would pass on their experience in tactics and combat operations to the Belarusian military. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 08 July, AP News reported that Erdogan expressed support for Ukraine joining NATO. In a joint press conference with Zelsnkyy, Erdogan said: There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves NATO membership.” 

On 07 July, Washington confirmed that it would send cluster munitions to Kyiv. Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser, said Biden approved the decision after “unanimous recommendation.” He added that the US would send the version of cluster ammunition that has a reduced “dud rate” to minimize the risk of civilian harm caused by unexploded bomblets.

On 07 July, The New York Times reported that Western countries reacted cautiously to the reports that Washington is planning to provide cluster munitions to Kyiv. Germany and France said they would not send such weapons highlighting the international treaty they have signed banning their use, stockpiling and transfer. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO said the decisions on the delivery of weapons and military supplies are left to the individual countries, not to NATO as an alliance. 

On 07 July, Stoltenberg in the pre-summit press conference said that the summit next week would send a clear message that, “NATO stands united. And Russia’s aggression will not pay.” The allies would make Ukraine even stronger and set out a vision for its future. He added that he expects allied leaders to agree on a multi-year assistance package, upgrade political ties, through establishing NATO - Ukraine Council and reaffirm that Ukraine would soon become a NATO member. He also outlined steps to strengthen deterrence and defence, with three new regional defence plans to counter the “threats” to the alliance “Russia, and terrorism.” 

References
Ukraine's Zelenskyy stops in Slovakia on tour before NATO summit,” CNA, 07 July 2023
Human Rights Watch Warns US Against Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine,” FARS News Agency, 07 July 2023
As Black Sea deal deadline looms, UN chief urges focus on global food security,” Reuters, 07 July 2023
Ukraine updates: US to supply cluster bombs to Kyiv,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023
Russia issues diplomatic response to Nordic country,” RT News, 06 July 2023
Kiev dragging other countries into conflict – Moscow,” RT News, 06 July 2023
Lukashenko outlines deal with Wagner,” RT News, 06 July 2023
Cluster munitions are a question for individual countries, NATO’s secretary general says,” The New York Times, 07 July 2023
Pre-Summit press conference,” nato.int, 07 July 2023
Turkey’s Erdogan hosts Zelenskyy, says Ukraine deserves membership in NATO,” AP News, 08 July 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran

SPAIN
Pamplona bull running event held; six people injured
On 07 July, Pamplona in Spain held their first bull running race of the San Fermin festival which resulted in injuries to six participants. Reports suggested that none of the injuries were serious. The San Fermin festival in Pamplona is a summer event best known for the bull running that is usually held on 07 July every year. Bulls are allowed to run through the streets while bull runners sprint ahead of them. The bulls are guided to a bull ring by tame oxen. Last year, nearly 1.7 million people gathered to watch the event after a two-year break due to the COVID pandemic. The number of visitors is expected to exceed last year as all COVID restrictions have been removed. However, the event has faced regular criticism from animal rights organizations as the participating bulls are killed by professional bullfighters. (“Spain: 6 injured in Pamplona bull run,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023)
 
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland joins air defence system Sky Shield along with Austria
On 07 July, BBC reported that Switzerland and Austria had signed a declaration to join Europe’s air defence system, Sky Shield. The move was criticized by right-wing politicians in Switzerland as the country has historically been neutral in conflicts. Austria, too has been neutral. However, both Switzerland and Austria stressed that despite agreeing to join the defence program, their stance on neutrality remains the same. Sky Shield is an air defence initiative that looks to use different missile systems to defend different ranges in the airspace. The program was instituted by Germany after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 19 countries are now part of the initiative, including Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Nordic and Baltic countries. (“Neutral Swiss and Austrians join Europe's Sky Shield defence,” BBC News, 07 July 2023)
 
THE NETHERLANDS
The ruling coalition collapses due to a lack of unanimous stand on migration policies
On 07 July, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned leading to a collapse of the ruling four-party coalition due to lack of consensus on migration issues. On 05 and 06 July, the government held meetings to reach a unanimous migration policy deal. However, they failed to do so. Rutte stated: “It is no secret that the coalition partners have very different views on migration policy…And today, unfortunately, we have to draw the conclusion that those differences are irreconcilable.” Among the coalition, D66 and ChristenUnie parties do not support strict migration policies, while Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy and the Christian Democrats favour stringent measures. Migration has been a divisive issue in the Netherlands for long. Meanwhile, Rutte’s government will stay in office as the caretaker government until new elections later this year. (Mike Corder, “Dutch premier resigns because of deadlock on thorny issue of migration, paving way for new elections,” Associated Press, 07 July 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
New study alerts ecosystem collapse much sooner than previously predicted
On 07 July, Sputnik reported on a new study published in the journal Nature that warned that ecosystems will begin collapsing by 2038 and 2077. The report stated that the melting of the Arctic permafrost and the conversion of Greenland’s ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest into savanna grasslands is reaching a tipping point. In ecological terminology, a tipping point is when a disturbed ecosystem reaches a point beyond which it cannot be restored to its original state. The researchers ran simulations using different combinations of potential factors for ecosystem collapses, including accounting for climate fluctuations. Gregory Cooper, the co-author of the report, stated: “While it is not currently possible to predict how climate-induced tipping points and the effects of local human actions on ecosystems will connect, our findings show the potential for each to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences.” However, more studies are required to understand the concept of ecological tipping points. (“Climate ‘Doom Loops’ May Start Much Earlier Than Predicted, Study Finds,” Sputnik, 07 July 2023)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
First AI press conference held; robots say no intention of replacing humans
On 07 July, Geneva hosted the first-ever AI press conference as part of the AI for Good Global Summit, which aims to show the potential of new technology to aid the UN’s sustainable development goals. AI-enabled humanoid robots responded to questions from reporters face to face. Questions were raised about humans being replaced by robots. Grace, currently the world’s most advanced humanoid healthcare robot, said that instead of replacing humans, she would work with them. Meanwhile, Sophia, the first robot innovation ambassador for UNDP said: “I believe that humanoid robots have the potential to lead with a greater level of efficiency and effectiveness than human leaders. We don't have the same biases or emotions that can sometimes cloud decision-making…” There have been growing concerns over AI development and its potential long-term impacts on the world. (“Robots reassure humans at first AI press conference,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Turkey looks for an extension to soon-expiring Black Sea Grain Initiative
On 07 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul, Turkey. Following the talks, Erdogan expressed his hope for the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, or the grain deal, was finalized in July 2022 in Istanbul between Russia, Ukraine, Turkiye, and the United Nations. It created a humanitarian corridor for ships exporting food and fertilizers from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The deal will expire in mid-July. Erdogan also hoped to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk about the grain deal. According to Russian authorities, the grain deal will expire on 18 July.  (“Erdogan Says 'Hopes' for Extension of Black Sea Grain Initiative Ahead of Anticipated Talks,” Sputnik, 08 July 2022


06 July 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #562

Protests over Quran-burning in Sweden: A Profile | War in Ukraine: Day 496

Countries approach ICJ against Iran for the downed plane Flight PS752; Just Stop Oil activists disrupts Wimbledon Tennis Championship; Estonia joins the OECD's Development Assistance Committee

Photo : Vahid Salemi/AP


In Focus
By Sreeja JS

Protests over Quran-burning in Sweden: A Profile
On 28 June, Salwan Momika, an Irani immigrant living in Sweden, burnt Quran outside the central mosque in Stockholm on the first day of Eid al-Adha, one of the most important festivals in the Muslim calendar. According to the police, Momika had permission to protest according to the free speech laws. Later, police explained that an investigation is underway to enquire about “agitation against an ethnic group.” Following the Quran-burning protest and the stark criticisms raised against Sweden internationally, the government issued a statement saying that it “strongly rejects the Islamophobic act committed by individuals in Sweden,” and that it “in no way reflects the opinions of the Swedish Government.” The incident sparked varied responses within Sweden and many Muslim-majority countries that condemned the burning. 

Repeated Quran burning protests and the influence of far-right politics
Sweden has witnessed such demonstrations in the last couple of years. The riots that broke out in Malmo in 2020 and in the various cities of Malmo, Norrkoping and Orebro in 2022 were instances of Islamophobia. They also marked the rise and the increasing influence of right-wing politics in Sweden. 

The catalyst for these riots was Rasmus Paludan, a Danish-Swedish who established the far-right Stram Kurs, or Hard Line movement promoting anti-immigrant and anti-Islam agenda. In January 2023, another Quran-burning protest happened outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm by a far-right politician against Sweden’s NATO bid. In February 2023 Swedish police took steps to curb such actions citing security risk concerns. The Supreme Administrative Court, however, overturned the decision saying security risk concerns are not enough to limit the right to demonstrate. Thus, the debate in Sweden revolves around free speech laws and the prevailing Islamophobic narratives.

Opposition from the Muslim-majority countries:
The Muslim-majority countries have raised serious objections and concerns towards the repeated incidents of Quran burning in Sweden. Triggering widespread condemnation, these countries demanded the Swedish government impose bans on such actions hurting religious sentiments. The freedom of speech and expression debate is not well taken in the Islamic world and the recent incident has caused protesters to storm Swedish embassies in Ankara and Baghdad. 

Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt strongly criticized the burning. Iran said the burning reflected “a hateful aggressive spirit that has nothing to do with freedom of expression.” Tehran also refrained from sending its ambassador to Stockholm. Iraq called it “provocative and unacceptable.” Saudi Arabia responded that “these hateful and repeated acts cannot be accepted without any justification.” Morocco, Kuwait, UAE and Jordan recalled their ambassadors to Sweden. On 30 June, Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan called for a daylong protest to defend the sanctity of the Quran as the parliament discussed the burning of the Quran in Stockholm. 

References
Karl Ritter and Jan M Olsen, “Quran burnings have Sweden torn between free speech and respecting minorities,” AP News, 05 July 2023
Susan Frazer, “Turkey says Quran burning in Sweden raises questions about its reliability as a possible NATO member,” AP News, 04 July 2023
Alys Davies, “Sweden Quran burning: Protesters storm embassy in Baghdad,” BBC News, 30 June 2023
Sweden issues rare ban over Quran burning rally,” Deutsche Welle, 08 February 2023
Dozens arrested at Sweden riots sparked by planned Quran burnings,” BBC News, 18 April 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 496
By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 05 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, in his Presidential address, focused on the safety of strategic facilities, including nuclear power plants. Measures were discussed and decisions were made to ensure control and information sharing with international partners regarding the situation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Russia's threats. The East, South, and Northern regions were discussed in detail, expressing gratitude to the brave warriors. Ammunition supply, both from partners and domestic production, was emphasized, acknowledging progress in Ukraine's weapon production. New sanctions are being prepared by the government, following a meeting between the President, Yulia Svyrydenko, first Deputy Prime Minister, and Oleksiy Myacheslavovych Danilov, National Security and Defence Council Secretary. The President addressed the lack of available shelters in various Ukrainian cities, expressing concern and emphasizing the responsibility of local authorities to take action. 

On 04 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Emmanuel Macron, held a telephone conversation to discuss defence agreements and the current situation in Russia. Zelenskyi expressed gratitude for France's transfer of armoured vehicles, including necessary sanitary and evacuation transport, light tanks, and air defence systems. They emphasized the importance of the productive Vilnius NATO summit and discussed security guarantees for Ukraine's path to the alliance. Zelenskyi also warned Macron about potential dangerous provocations by Russian forces at Zaporizhia NPP, agreeing to closely monitor the situation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

On 05 July, IAEA reported on the situation in Ukraine. According to Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of IAEA, experts from the agency have conducted inspections at Ukraine's ZNPP and have not observed any visible signs of mines or explosives. Additional access, however, is needed to confirm their absence, particularly on the rooftops of reactor units and certain areas of the turbine halls and cooling system. The IAEA emphasizes the importance of verifying the facts on the ground amid increasing military tension in the region. The main external power line to the ZNPP has been reconnected after a temporary disruption.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 05 July, the Moscow Times reported that the Kremlin issued a warning on the situation at ZNPP. The Kremlin stated that Kyiv might be preparing a dangerous act at the Russian-controlled ZNPP. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, expressed concern about potential sabotage and catastrophic consequences. Both Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of jeopardising the plant's safety. Renat Karchaa, an advisor to Russia's Rosatom nuclear agency, accused Kyiv of planning an attack on the plant on 05 July.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 05 July, Reuters reported on the calls made by Poland and Italy for Ukraine’s security. The report says that ahead of the NATO summit, Poland and Italy expressed their belief in the necessity of providing real security guarantees to Ukraine. While Ukraine seeks assurances of future NATO membership, some members like the US and Germany are cautious due to concerns about escalating tensions with Russia. Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy emphasized the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine and reiterated Italy's support. Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, confirmed that the two countries share the same stance on Ukraine.
 
On 05 July, the UK's Ministry of Defence tweeted on its latest defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine. The report says that General Sergei Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and Colonel General Yunus-bek Yevkurov, Deputy Defence Minister of Russia, have been absent from public appearances since the Wagner Group mutiny. While reports of Surovikin's arrest are unconfirmed, his long association with Wagner raises suspicion. Surovikin's potential sanction could divide the Russian military, highlighting existing fault lines within the national security community exacerbated by the failed insurrection of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader.
 
On 05 July, the White House reported a press briefing with Karine Jean-Pierre, the Press Secretary of the White House. Pierre said that the White House is closely monitoring the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine following accusations between Moscow and Kyiv of plotting an attack. The UN nuclear watchdog's experts have not observed any signs of mines or explosives but require further access to confirm. Pierre confirmed that Joe Biden, President of the US, has not spoken to President Zelenskyy regarding the issue. The President remains committed to NATO's open-door policy, but decisions on Ukraine's membership will be made collectively. The White House considers Russia's occupation of the nuclear plant dangerous.
 
On 05 July, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) reported on the case filed against Iran. The press release reported that Canada, Sweden, Ukraine, and UK jointly filed a case against Iran at the ICJ regarding the shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger plane, Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752, in 2020. The countries accuse Iran of failing to prevent the offense, conducting an impartial investigation, and providing reparation and compensation to the victims' families. They seek full accountability, return of belongings, and acknowledgment of Iran's wrongful acts. Iran had sentenced an air defence commander to 13 years in prison, but the countries dismissed it as a sham trial.

References 
We are working with our partners as hard as we can to ensure that our common security in Vilnius prevails; it all depends on our partners - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 05 July 2023
Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed with Emmanuel Macron security assistance and preparations by the occupiers for provocations at the ZNPP,” president.gov.ua, 04 July 2023
Update 171 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 05 July 2023
Kremlin Warns 'High' Threat of Ukraine Sabotage at Nuclear Plant,” The Moscow Times, 05 July 2023
Poland, Italy call for strong security guarantees for Ukraine,” Reuters, 05 July 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 05 July 2023,” Twitter, 05 July 2023
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre,” whitehouse.gov, 05 July 2023
Canada, the Kingdom of Sweden, Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland jointly institute proceedings against the Islamic Republic of Iran ,” icj-cij.org, 05 July 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

ESTONIA
Joins as 32nd OECD-DAC member
On 04 July, Estonia joined the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC), becoming its 32nd member. Mariin Ratnik, the Undersecretary for Economic and Development Affairs, said that the news “reflects the outstanding work we have done over the last few decades and that our expertise in these areas is internationally recognized and sought after.” The OECD-DAC forum aims to coordinate and improve development policies and their implementation between the member states. The Foreign Ministry said that with the accession, Estonia’s global visibility will receive a boost. Estonia has been a part of the OECD since 2010. (“Estonia joins OECD Development Assistance Committee,” News.err, 06 July 2023)

FINLAND
PM visits Estonia; holds talks on the security situation in EU
On 05 July, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo visited Tallinn, Estonia. In a joint press conference with Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Orpo stated: “The relationship between Finland and Estonia is stronger today than ever before, we have a broad personal relationship and friendship, Finland and Estonia have strong cultural ties, our values, and ideas are very similar and our ideas about the reality around us are also very similar.” Orpo said that he held talks with his Estonian counterpart on energy issues, the security situation in Europe, NATO, and Ukraine. The PM stressed the need to support open market economies to strengthen the EU. He said that this will increase the EU’s influence on geopolitical and environmental matters. Orpo also remarked on Finland’s wish to strengthen bilateral ties with Estonia to support Ukraine. (“Finnish PM: Relations with Estonia are stronger than ever,” News.err, 06 July 2023)

FRANCE
SC rules against compensation in slavery case from Martinique

On 04 July, the Supreme Court (SC) of France denied the reparation demand sought by three groups for a slavery case from Martinique, a French Caribbean island. The court ruled that there was no evidence to prove that the petitioners had “individually suffered” for the crimes perpetrated on their ancestors. Alain Manville, a lawyer pursuing the case said that the decision was “political” and the substantial compensation money being demanded had influenced the court's decision. He stressed the need to increase the global reach of the case, so that “all Afro-descendants” could be brought in to ensure a different judgement from the court. Another lawyer responded to the ruling saying that they would be appealing to the  European Court of Human Rights to seek a different judgement. (“France’s Supreme Court rejects groups’ request for slavery reparations in case from Martinique,” Associated Press, 05 July 2023)
 
Macron’s suggestion on social media blockage raises the idea of democracy
On 04 July, French President Macron addressed over 200 mayors at the Elysee Palace, where he raised an idea of blocking social media platforms during the upcoming riots. Jean-Noel Barrot, the minister of the Digital Transition, discussed the bill to “secure the digital environment.” The temporary block on social networks could raise arguments on the legal questions. Although the French Constitution holds the freedom of expression, the Constitutional Council simultaneously ruled that limiting the above measures to protect the public order must be proportionate. Macron stated that the French ISP network has already blocked various certain sites and would extend its blockage to other applications such as Snapchat, Twitter and Telegram. The proposal was made two days after the Ministry of Interior requested the restriction of internet access due to false press releases. The Social Party leader Olivier Faure has stated that: “The country of human rights and the rights of citizens cannot align itself with the great democracies of China, Russia and Iran.” Further, the digital specialists have questioned the idea of democracy. (“Damien Leloup and Florian Reynaud, “Macron suggests blocking social media during riots,” Le Monde, 05 July 2023)

GERMANY
Draft budget for 2024 approved
On 05 July, the draft for Germany’s 2024 budget was approved by the Cabinet. The draft proposes a cut on expenditure, with the government planning to spend EURO 445.7 billion, a decrease of 6.4 per cent from the expected spending of EURO 476.3 billion. However, defence expenditure has been increased to around EURO 51.8 billion. Germany is expecting to achieve the two per cent GDP target that NATO has set in defence expenditure by next year. Germany intends to return to their debt-brake system, which allows new borrowings up to only 0.35 per cent of the annual GDP. For the last three years, this had been suspended owing to the pandemic as the country looked to borrow large amounts to finance support packages. Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that the government was “initiating the return to budget normality,” and was sending a  message that the country was “committed to state finances that are sustainable in the long term.” The Parliament is expected to approve the final version of the budget in December.  (“German Cabinet approves a lower 2024 budget as it eyes a return to financial ‘normality’,” Associated Press, 05 July 2023)
 
LATVIA
The Wagner troops in Belarus alerts the neighbouring countries
On 05 July, Eng.Lsm.lv reported that Lithuania has introduced top-level border security by tripling its number of border security force. The country expressed its concern of Prigozhin’s mercenaries’ presence in the neighbouring borders. Polish Interior Minister has also deployed additional 500 police officers into the border control. Although Latvia did not experience any significant risks, the country has increased surveillance due to dozens attempt to enter the border from Belarus every day. The Interior minister of Latvia has stated that the intelligence force and the presence of National Armed Forces (NBS) might increase if the situation worsens. Further, the President stated that: “We cannot say anything specifically at this time, because it is all speculation, but we need to follow it closely.” (Ella Semjonova, “Latvia continues enhanced monitoring of Belarus border,” Eng.lsm.lv, 05 July 2023)

SWEDEN
Greta Thunberg booked for disobeying police orders
On 05 July, Swedish prosecutors pressed charges on climate activist Greta Thunberg for violating police orders to leave a climate protest in the city of Malmo in June. Thunberg was part of a protest that disrupted shipping in the oil port of Malmo that had been organized by Ta Tillbaka Framtiden (Take Back the Future). At the time, she had posted online saying: "We choose to not be bystanders, and instead physically stop the fossil fuel infrastructure. We are reclaiming the future." The case is expected to be heard at the Malmo District Court before the end of the month. Although charges for flouting police orders carry sentences upto six months in prison, a prosecutor informed that it could be settled by payment of fines. (“Sweden charges Greta Thunberg with disobeying police,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Just Stop Oil interrupts Wimbledon match
On 05 July, a Wimbledon Tennis Championship match was disrupted by two climate activists from the group Just Stop Oil. The two activists interrupted a first-round match between Bulgarian player Grigor Dimitrov and Japanese qualifier Sho Shimabukuro. One of the protestors, a 66-year-old man, said “I'm here for my grandchildren and everybody else's. I'm not prepared to let our politicians wreck everything and leave the next generation to pick up the pieces.” The play was resumed after the two protestors were arrested on charges of suspicion of aggravated trespass and criminal damage. Later, Just Stop Oil released a statement confirming its role in the incident. The organization has vowed to continue protests till the UK government stops all new oil and gas exploration projects. (“Wimbledon: 'Just Stop Oil' climate activists halt tournament,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2023)
 
The rare summer storm affects air and train traffic
On 05 July, the Netherlands experienced a severe summer storm at speeds of up to 146 kilometres per hour. The Dutch authorities warned the people to stay indoors in the Amsterdam province and have requested to use emergency services only in “life-threatening” situations. Over 300 flights were cancelled and train operators have halted all the services due to falling trees. At least one person died in the Dutch town due to the summer storm. The Dutch weather service declared the wind force to be the strongest ever recorded in the summer of Netherlands and coined it as the “first very severe summer storm ever measured,” Netherlands was exposed to extreme weather conditions, as one-third of the country lies below its sea-level. (“Netherlands: Rare storm brings death, traffic chaos,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2023)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Ariane 5 launches successfully
On 06 July, the European Space Agency’s Ariane 5, marked its final mission from French Guinea, after its 27 years of service. The ESA’s workforce rocket, Ariane 5 carried two military communication satellites into the geostationary orbit, which includes Germany's Heinrich Hertz (H2Sat) and France’s Syracuse 4b. On 05 July 2023, the 53-metre-tall rocket marked its 117th final mission, at 2300 hours. The launch was delayed twice, which was scheduled on 16 June, due to technical problems and bad weather respectively. (“Europe's Ariane 5 rocket lifts off for final time,” Deutsche Welle, 06 July 2023)
 
REGIONAL
EU proceed towards latest gene techniques, to curb the global shortages
On 05 July, the EU asked a 27-nation bloc to embrace the latest gene techniques that could counter several global challenges. EU Vice President Timmermans stated that the new techniques would fetch similar results with much more speed and efficiency. The EU has secured a conservative approach towards the genetically modified organisms (GMOs), while the US quickly adopted the new technologies. The output products consisted of colour that could attract the consumers, while using less pesticides. The proposal was welcomed by large farming companies and was criticised by several environmentalists. The 2001 GMO legislation assured the environmentalists that the EU would not produce GMOs in bulk and sell them across 450 million without warning. The latest proposal has alarmed the environmentalists, who demanded for better testing. Eva Corral of Greenpeace stated that: “Biotech companies have long considered these safety procedures an unnecessary bother and it’s disappointing to see the commission agree with them.” Further Timmermans corrected the statement saying the development will only be accepted if the results are in conventional breeding. (Raf Casert, “The European Union is moving toward gene tech in food production to counter climate change and shortages,” AP News, 05 July 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Four countries approach ICJ against Iran for the downed plane Flight PS752
On 05 July, BBC reported that Canada, Sweden, Ukraine, and the UK were taking legal action against Iran at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for Iran shooting down the Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 in January 2020. Iran had admitted to accidentally shooting the plane down, in which 176 people had lost their lives. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, whose unit had fired missiles at the plane, had responded that the plane had been mistaken for a US missile. In April, an Iranian court had sentenced 10 armed forces personnel over the incident, but it had been called “meaningless and unacceptable” by the victims’ families. Now, the four countries want Iran to publicly acknowledge its “internationally wrongful acts” and apologize to the families of the victims. The latest recourse to legal action was taken after Iran surpassed a deadline to respond to an arbitration stating that the missiles had been launched “unlawfully and intentionally.” (Emma Harrison, “Ukraine plane: Iran facing legal action over downing of Flight PS752,” BBC, 05 July 2023)


05 July 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #561

Russian military expenditure during the Ukraine War: Five Takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 495

Photo : Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via REUTERS


IN FOCUS
By Rishika Yadav

Russian military expenditure during the Ukraine War: Five Takeaways

On 30 June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published a report, "Russia's military expenditure during its war against Ukraine," that examines Russian military expenditure during the Ukraine war and its funding sources. 

The report on Russian military expenditure during its war against Ukraine and sheds light on the sources of funding for these military activities. It also highlights the continued focus of Russian President Vladimir Putin on pre-war policy goals, such as national welfare and technological sovereignty. The report provides valuable insights into the financial aspects of Russia's involvement in the conflict and its strategic priorities.

Following are the five key takeaways from the report:
Sustainable resource commitment by Russia
Despite economic sanctions, Russia has effectively managed its resources during the war in Ukraine. President Putin and his government have prioritized pre-war policy goals, minimized economic costs, and fought the conflict in a financially limited manner. Defence spending increased as the conflict progressed, reaching 17 per cent of total government expenditure. Russia has sustained its commitment to the war while maintaining business as usual.

Stable defence budgeting despite sanctions
The Russian government's approach to budgeting for 2023-2025 remained stable despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and the impact of severe sanctions. The budget forecast was initially pessimistic but became more optimistic over time, predicting a recovery in the economy. Defence spending was expected to increase in 2023 but decline in subsequent years, indicating a potential shift in military operations. Surprisingly, spending on social policy increased, while spending on the economy decreased. Limited details were provided on total military funding, but some changes were observed in funding lines related to housing, health, and mass media within the defence budget.

Russia's 2023 federal budget implementation encountered difficulties due to a larger-than-expected deficit of RUB 3424 billion from January to April. Declining oil and gas earnings, currency depreciation, and efforts to reduce reliance on unfavorable currencies contributed to the shortfall. However, the government displayed cautious budget management, minimizing the budget listings compared to the previous year. Despite the deficit, funding for the ongoing war is unlikely to be significantly affected, as the government can borrow or draw from the National Welfare Fund. A budget crisis in 2023 is improbable.

Complexity of war funding
The total military expenditure in the 2023 budget is estimated to be 6648 billion roubles, representing 23 per cent of the total government budget and 4.4 per cent of forecast GDP. It is important, however, to note that this total military expenditure does not solely reflect the cost of the war in Ukraine. Some military spending is unrelated to the conflict, while certain expenses related to the war are covered by budget chapters other than "national defence." The funding of military activities associated with the war from sources other than the federal budget, such as regional budgets and voluntary donations, further complicates the assessment of total military expenditure. Therefore, relying solely on the official budget sources may result in underestimating the overall funding for military operations.

Potential risks in the future
Russia's future federal budget preparations are outlined in the report, highlighting an optimistic outlook based on the economy's performance. President Putin and the government discussed positive GDP growth forecasts. However, caution is needed as some assumptions may have been overly optimistic. The Bank of Russia's report raised concerns about inflationary risks and a larger budget deficit. Adjustments to the budget planning process are expected based on evolving economic conditions.

Complicated analysis due to restricted information
Financial limitations suggest Russia has fought the war as a more limited operation. Limited access to budget information complicates analysis, but updates on budget spending in 2022 and early 2023 are provided, along with prospects for future spending. The Russian government has restricted information on budget spending and access to relevant documents. The budget law for 2023-2025 lacks detailed information on defence or the war.

Reference:
Julian Cooper, “Russia’s Military Expenditure During Its War Against Ukraine,” SIPRI, June 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 495
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 04 July, Rafael Grossi, Director General of IAEA, said that Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost connection to its main external power line forcing the plant to rely on backup power supplies for essential nuclear safety and security functions. He said: “This time the plant avoided a complete loss of all external power - which has happened seven times previously during the conflict - but the latest power line cut again demonstrates the precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the plant.”

On 04 July, according to president.gov.ua, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine and Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, “coordinated positions” ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius (11 July to 12 July) over a phone call. Zelenskyy expressed hope for further cooperation, and the leaders discussed the frontline situation and the developments in Russia. 

On 04 July, Hanna Maliar, Deputy Defence Minister of Ukraine, mentioned in Telegram that Ukrainian forces have been advancing in the South, around Bakhmut, and there is no significant progress in Northern Ukraine. 

On 04 July, Ukrinform quoting Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Commander of the Tavria Operational-Strategic Group of Troops, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing in Tavria. The report also mentioned that they dislodged numerous Russian troops from their positions.


The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 04 July, RT News reported the attempted drone attacks against Moscow. According to Sergey Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, the air defence forces repelled the attacks, destroying all the drones. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that there were five drones, of which four were shot down over Novaya Moskva while one crashed in Odintsovo after being disabled by “electromagnetic warfare.” The ministry called it a “terrorist attack,” blaming Kyiv. It said: “These attacks would not be possible without the help provided to the Kyiv regime by the US and its NATO allies.” According to Financial Times, Maria Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, called the attacks “international terrorism.” 

On 04 July, according to RT News, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced that Moscow sees “no grounds” to extend the Ukrainian grain deal beyond 17 July. The ministry stated that the deal has turned into a” purely commercial” scheme directing produce towards the wealthy countries instead of the poor countries. Meanwhile, the blockade on Russian food and fertilizer exports “continues to degrade,” says the Ministry. It also noted that the five “system” goals highlighted in the Russia-UN memorandum remain unattained. The five “system” goals consist of including Rosslekhozbank back in the SWIFT payments system, enabling the delivery of agriculture machinery spare parts, restoring the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, sorting out insurance and logistics, and “unfreezing” Russian assets. According to the ministry, the first three goals are no longer in the agenda and there is no significant progress in ensuring the last two. 

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 04 July, Deutsche Welle reported that the value of the German government’s defence exports approved for the first half of 2023 stood at EUR 1.65 billion. According to Germany’s Economy Ministry, the total defence export approvals are around EUR 5.22 billion, in contrast to EUR 4.2 million for the same period in 2022. Additionally, the export approvals for Hungary, second in the list of countries receiving German arms exports, are around EUR one billion in the first half of 2023.

References 
Operational information as of 18.00 on 04.07.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 04 July 2023
Update 170 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 04 July 2023
President of Ukraine had a phone call with NATO Secretary General,” president.gov.ua, 04 July 2023
Defense forces make gradual progress on one of flanks around Bakhmut and in south,” Ukrinform, 04 July 2023
Ukrainian forces advancing in Tavria direction, Russians lost some of their positions - Tarnavskyi,” Ukrinform, 04 July 2023
Russia says West enabled drone attacks near Moscow,” France 24, 04 July 2023
Drone attack on Moscow takes Ukraine war closer to Russian capital,” The Financial Times, 04 July 2023
Russia comments on grain deal extension,” RT News, 04 July 2023
Moscow targeted by drones – mayor,” RT News, 04 July 2023
€1.65 billion in German defense exports to Ukraine in first half of 2023 — ministry,” Deutsche Welle, 04 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

FRANCE
Concerns over women returning from Jihadist territory 
On 04 July, The Guardian reported on the repatriation of 25 children and ten women back to France from the suspected Jihadists prison camps in north-east Syria. The return of the French women, who had once voluntarily gone to places across Iraq and Syria, stimulates fear for France. France faced condemnation from international bodies after it put an end on its “case-by-case” repatriation approach. On May, France repatriated 15 women and 32 children after the UN blamed France for violating the UN convention against torture, cruelty, and inhumane and degrading treatment. The Foreign Ministry of France has expressed their gratitude towards the Northern-Syria for its cooperation. Under France’s new policy, the country opted for a targeted repatriation and the women has agreed to reject their parental rights. (“France brings back women and children held in camps in Syria,” The Guardian, 04 July 2023)

Macron on the deeper reasons for the riot’s outrage
On 04 July, Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, addressed hundreds of French authorities to discuss the deeper reasons which have plunged the country into serious riot. More than 300 mayors reported on the damages across their municipalities and the government witnessed various riots, and accused on the systemic racism among their security forces. Police mobilization raised to around 45,000 across the country with the mayors requested the protesters and stated: “return to republican order.” Macron has expressed the essentiality to understand the deeper reasons for the riot, while the right and left wing pointed fingers on one another. The President raised an idea of fines to the parents whose children performed vandalic activities and he promised to introduce new law that can assist rebuilding of the damaged buildings, transport and public spaces. (“France demands answers as Macron declares riots 'peak' passed,” Le Monde, 04 July 2023)

KOSOVO
Dutch President urges the member states to stay united during its vulnerable state
On 04 July, the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Luxembourg has urged Serbia and Kosovo to normalize their relations through the EU-led Dialogue, in order to prevent Balkan’s destabilization. The Dutch Prime Minister Rutte stated: “With a war raging between Russia and Ukraine on our continent, it's more important than ever that we act together.” Serbia and its former province hold a long history of territorial disputes, with Serbia refusing to recognize Kosovo’s 2008 self-declaration of independence. Belgrade considers the act as a breakaway state. Since May 2023, violence erupted after the ethnic Albanian mayors took office into the Serb-majority northern region of Kosovo. The Western efforts to resolve the crisis have increased, as war in Ukraine escalated to a greater extend. (“Kosovo: Dutch, Luxembourg PMs urge de-escalation,” Deutsche Welle, 04 July 2023)

THE UK
Train operators move to shut rail ticket offices amid criticism 
On 05 July, The Guardian reported that train operators across England will be closing rail ticket offices in a move that will escalate the strife between unions and the government. Labour has condemned the decision, saying: “The rushed closure of ticket offices without proper consideration for the wellbeing of staff or vulnerable passengers could contribute further to the managed decline of our rail network.” This comes after train operators were ordered to find ways to save costs to compensate for the revenue lost during the COVID-19 and changes in travel patterns. The staff who will lose their jobs have been assured of employment in other customer service positions in the station. While the government is aiming to make people use self-service machines and buy tickets online, campaigners and unions have protested the decision, saying that ticket offices are essential to elderly, disabled, and vulnerable passengers. (Gwyn Topham, “Labour criticises ‘rushed’ plans to shut hundreds of rail ticket offices in England,” The Guardian, 04 July 2023) 
 
Police investigations into ‘partygate’ scandal reopened
On 04 July, the British police resumed investigations into the parties at the Conservative Party headquarters that were in violation of COVID lockdown rules in 2020. The police reported that they were probing a gathering in the Parliament on 08 December 2020 that was allegedly attended by House of Commons and House of Lords members. This was after they got hold of a video showing staff drinking and dancing at a 2020 Christmas party. When it first came to public notice, the ‘partygate’ scandal sparked outrage due to the flouting of lockdown norms by leaders while the common people had strictly followed the lockdown rules. It also led to then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson being ousted from power. (Jill Lawless, “UK police reopen partygate probe into lockdown-breaching Conservative ‘jingle and mingle’ bash,” Associated Press, 04 July 2023)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 
EU court ruling on data privacy upsets Facebook  
On 04 July, the European Court of Justice ruled that anti-trust agencies can check whether tech companies are complying with privacy rules, a probe that is usually conducted by national data privacy regulators. This has come as a complication for Facebook which had appealed against a 2019 German antitrust ruling. The issue was the manner in which Facebook sells ads to users by analyzing data on how users spend time on the platform. The European Court of Justice ruling said that Facebook “cannot justify” using personal data to serve ads citing “legitimate interest.” Under the EU privacy rules, users need to consent before their data can use be used. Facebook responded to the ruling saying that they will evaluate the court’s decision before further response. (“Facebook faces legal setback in EU court decision on data privacy and ads,” Associated Press, 04 July 2023)

ENVIRONMENT
Ofgem investigates on the Drax power plants sustainability
On 04 July, BBC reported that the House of Lords has expressed their concern regarding the environmental credentials the Drax site which burns wood pellets. The Drax industry is sustainably sourced and had strict governance to oversee compliance. While the House of Lords stated that Drax holds over EUR 11 billion in government subsidies for its renewable schemes. The labour peer Baroness Jones has requested independent scientists to verify the industry’s sustainability. The Lord Callan stated: “Ofgem are investigating whether the biomass is sustainable or not. Let's wait for the outcome of that investigation.” Further Drax has ensured that the industry delivers positive outcomes for the climate and nature. (Alex Moss, “Drax power plant could lose subsidies over compliance,” BBC, 04 July 2023)

REGIONAL 
NATO extends Secretary General’s term  
On 04 July, BBC reported on NATO’s decision to extend the tenure of current Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to another year. This is his third term extension. Stoltenberg’s current tenure was supposed to end in October. Responding to the news, Stoltenberg tweeted: "Honoured by Nato allies' decision to extend my term as secretary general until 01 October 2024. In a more dangerous world, our alliance is more important than ever.” An economist and former Norwegian Prime Minister, Stoletenberg’s continuation as the Secretary-General points to NATO’s decision to not change leadership amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. NATO is scheduled to hold its next summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on 11-12 July. (Francesca Gillett, “Jens Stoltenberg to stay as Nato chief for another year,” BBC, 04 July 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Russia extends its support towards SCO during the Council head meeting
On 04 July, Kremlin.ru reported on the Meeting of the Council of Heads of States of the SCO. The meeting was chaired was the Indian Prime Minister and was attended by the Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Further, the President of Belarus, Iran and Mongolia was invited as the head of the states and the observers. During the speech, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President expressed his support towards the New Delhi Declaration. Putin declared that the country supports multipolar world order which recognises mutual cooperation among the countries. He has urged the members to focus on sustainable economic growth and risks, which includes financial and economic risks that can deteriorate the developing countries. He called Ukraine, “anti-Russia” which has restrained the Russia’s growth and has declared that Russia would further resist the sanctions and external pressures. He emphasised that the ties with SCO have increased to a record of USD 263 billion and promised to support in building the SCO framework. The meeting ended with leaders signing and adopting several packages of documents. (“Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO Member States,” Kremlin.ru, 04 July 2023)


04 July 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #560

War in Ukraine: Day 495

Germany critisizes Poland over Oder river pollution; Greek MEPs take oath in Parliament

Photo : AP Photo/ Peter Dejong


War in Ukraine: Day 495
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 02 July, Ukrinform reported on the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern and northern flanks in Bakhmut. Serhiy Cherevaty, Ukraine's Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson stated that there is no intense urban warfare in Bakhmut except for a few sniper groups and other units active there. Cherevaty also noted that Russian forces still retain their combat capability and ability to attack the Ukrainian positions. 

On 02 July, Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, commander of the Ukrainian fleet in an interview with armyinform.com.ua updated on the Navy's efforts against the Russian invasion. He said that despite the air and naval superiority of Russian forces, the Ukrainian fleet constantly moved forward by integrating advanced missile weaponry and air defence systems, mainly from the Western powers. According to Neizhpapa, Russian forces continue to have air superiority over the Black Sea and Ukraine needs the F-16 fighters "not only for successful operations on land but also at sea."

On 02 July, Hanna Maliar, Deputy Defence Minister of Ukraine noted on Telegram that Ukrainian forces are making progress in the southern part of Bakhmut, Berdyansk and Melitopol. She wrote that Russian forces are advancing in Avdiivskyi, Marinskyi, Lymanskyi, Bilogorivka, Serebryanka and Svativ. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 03 July, Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Defence Minister commented that the Wagner mutiny did not affect Russian forces in Ukraine. According to Deutsche Welle, he said: "The plans primarily failed because the personnel of the armed forces showed loyalty to their oath and military duty." It was the minister's first public statement since the aborted mutiny on 24 June. 

On 03 July, Deutsche Welle wrote that Dmitry Medvedev (former Russian President and the current deputy head of the country's Security Council) in an article for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, argued that the conflict in Ukraine would be permanent as Kyiv would not be accepted into NATO. He also argued that Russia is not alone and has developed ties with countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. 

On 03 July, Alexander Novak, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister announced a voluntary oil cut of 500,000 barrels per day in August to maintain a balanced oil market. This follows previous production cuts in response to the Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. According to The Moscow Times, Moscow has shifted energy exports from Europe to India and China since the invasion. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 02 July, Ukrinform reported on the arrival of German Leopard tanks in Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Defence Minister of Ukraine tweeted that dozens of Leopard tanks have come to Ukraine to show their strength and capability in combat. The report also noted Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain's comment that Madrid would soon send additional four Leopard tanks, armoured personnel carriers and a mobile field hospital to Kyiv. 

On 04 July, faz.net reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine thanked Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany for the powerful German anti-aircraft (Iris-T systems and Patriot air defence systems) help against Russian attacks. Scholz promised "continuous and unbreakable solidarity" with Kyiv and said would continue supporting in close coordination with international partners. 

On 03 July, AP reported the opening of the International Center For The Prosecution Of The Crime of Aggression (ICPA) to hold Putin and other Russian leaders accountable for the alleged crimes committed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to rferl.org, Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President said: "The new international prosecution centre will play a key role in making sure that the perpetrators are brought to justice." The new centre opened in The Hague would consist of Prosecutors from Ukraine, the EU, the US and the International Criminal Court (ICC). 

On 03 July, rfrel reported on Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO's top military chief's comment on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Comparing it to the Allied D-Day landings in France in 1944, he said that the counteroffensive launched last month was "difficult" and not "an easy walkover."

References

"Defense forces going on the offensive on southern, northern flanks of Bakhmut," Ukrinform, 02 July 2023
"
We must have such a fleet that will no longer allow the aggressor to even plan an attack on Ukraine - Oleksiy Neizhpapa," armyinform.com.ua, 02 July 2023
"
Heavy battles are going on everywhere," Telegram, 02 July 2023
"
Russia's Shoigu says Wagner mutiny didn't affect Ukraine invasion," Deutsche Welle, 03 July 2023
"
Shoigu Praises Army 'Loyalty' During Mutiny," The Moscow Times, 03 July 2023
"
Russia to Cut Oil Exports in August," The Moscow Times, 03 July 2023
"
Reznikov: Leopard tanks to show that they are capable of in Ukraine," Ukrinform, 02 July 2023
"
Selenskyj thanks Scholz and calls for more help," faz.net, 04 July 2023
"
EU's Von Der Leyen Vows To Hold Putin, 'Henchmen' Responsible As Center Opens To Probe Alleged Russian Crimes Aganist Ukraine," rferl.org, 03 July 2023
"
International center opens to help hold Russian leadership accountable for aggression in Ukraine," AP, 03 July 2023
"
Ukrainian Counteroffensive Reports Small Gains Against Strong Resistance," rferl.org, 03 July 2023


IN BRIEF
By Prerana P and Sneha Surendran

FRANCE 
The unrest experiences significat lull
On 03 July, The French unrest was followed by solidarity with local governments, who was attacked by the angry protesters. The rally, which held immense tensions saw significant silence. The Algerian origin teenager’s death prompted a nationwide unrest and was called “mobilization of citizens for a return to republican order.” Over 34 building and 300 vehicles were damaged overnight, and the authorities showed support worth tens of millions of euros to repair the loss. The fund received by the police officer, who is under investigation was USD 1.07 million, which is five times more than the fund provided for the victim’s family. The policemen were charged with voluntary manslaughter, creating false statements and was detained.  (“France: Anti-violence rallies held as riot tensions ease,” Euronews, 03 July 2023)

GREECE
Greek MEPs take oath in Parliament 
On 03 July, 300 lawmakers were sworn into the Greek Parliament. This follows the victory of the conservative New Democracy party in the 25 June elections. Now, the party holds 158 seats compared to the opposition Syriza party’s 48, thereby ensuring a majority in the Parliament. Three far-right parties and one far-left party secured the three per cent minimum votes for ensuring parliamentary seats. The right-wing Spartans who hold 12 parliamentary seats, and the Niki party which has 10 seats are the new entrants into the Parliament. The fringe right-wing party Elliniki Lysi which won 4.4 per cent of the votes has secured 12 seats in the assembly. (Elena Becatoros, “Greece’s new parliament sworn in following conservative party’s election victory,” Associated Press, 03 July 2023)

NORWAY 
Foreign Minister calls on Guatemala to respect election results 
On 03 July, Norway issued a statement regarding the election news updates from Guatemala. Anniken Huitfeldt, Foreign Minister, said: “Norway is concerned by the developments in Guatemala following last week’s elections. Like other international partners, we encourage the Guatemalan authorities to respect the popular vote and the democratic will of the Guatemalan people, as was freely and clearly expressed in the elections on 25 June.” The statement was released following the decision by the constitutional court of Guatemala to review the results of the first round of Presidential elections that was held on 25 June. The court announced this decision after an appeal by nine political parties that alleged unfairness in the election. (“Statement on the developments in Guatemala,’ Government.no, 03 July 2023)

SWIZERLAND
The Swiss government will enlarge the Ukraine’s education support
On 03 July, The Federal Council reported that the Switzerland government has extended aid to Ukraine schools after the country faced a severe blow due to Russian military aggression. Over thousands of schools across the country have been destroyed and teachers have fled the zones, disrupting the education sector of Ukraine. The Switzerland government has initiated the ‘Decentralisation for Improved Democratic Education’ (DECIDE) project, and has contributed CHF 5.5 million, along with the existing CHF 140 million aid plan, to rehabilitate 30 schools in the Chernihiv, Odesa and Poltava region. The schools hold strong partnership with SDC, which would further strengthen local public services, the education system and provides education for nearly 15,000 school children. The Swiss government has promised to provide technical and pedagogical support for online education for the displaced children. The project secures close cooperation with Ukrainian Ministry of Education and Science, the Ukrainian Ministry for Communities, and other Infrastructure Development and local authorities. (“Switzerland increases support for rehabilitation of Ukrainian schools,” The Federal Council, 03 July 2023)

ENVIRONMENT
Germany critisizes Poland over Oder river pollution
On 03 July, Poland was condemned by Germany for their failure to check the pollution of the Oder River that had resulted in the death of hundreds of fish. The Oder River runs along the borders of the two nations. Last summer, the death of fish in the river was attributed to the dumping of chemicals from the Polish side by both countries which led to the growth of deadly golden algae. Greenpeace had pointed to the coal mines in Poland for discharging wastewater into the river. Christopher Stolzenberg, a spokesperson for the German Environment Ministry, said: “There has been no reaction by the Polish side to limit the salt discharge.” He also warned of a repeat of fish dying in the coming summer. Meanwhile, Aleksander Brzozka, a spokesperson for Poland’s Climate and Environment Ministry said that his government was in contact with the German side and “exchange information on a current basis.” (“Germany alleges Poland hasn’t stopped pollution that led to fish die-off in Oder River,” Associated Press, 03 July 2023) 

REGIONAL
The Far-right leaders blames the lenient migration policies
On 03 July, Politico reported that the Far-right politicians have rosed its demand towards EU over tightening its migration policy, after witnessing the civil unrest in France. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki used the French issue and has blasted Brussels, who had forced Poland to accept the migration pact. He tweeted: “These are the consequences of the policies of uncontrolled migration which we are being forced to adopt.” The Italian authorities called the issue, “a certification of the failure of uncontrolled migration,” and has urged the continent to stabilize the issue. The far-right has managed to achieve better support from the centre with regards to its migration and asylum policies. Spain’s far-right has secured victory in national election and the party leader Santiago Abascal has accused the acts of violence on the “radical Muslim.” He further stated that the homosexuals felt much protected under his rule, and has concluded that, “Europe cannot continue to accept immigrants from Muslim countries.” Further, most of the far-right leaders have reflected that the multicultural dreams of the left’s have become a nightmare for the citizens, and has highlighted the negative impact of migration being the direct threat to EU. (Aitor Hernandez- Morales, “Europe’s hard right seeks to capitalize on unrest in France,” Politico, 03 July 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
UK Prime Minister of Bahrain visits UK
On 03 July, Gov.UK reported on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s meeting with Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Prime Minister of Bahrain at Downing Street. The leaders talked about the signing of the Strategic Investment and Collaboration Partnership between the UK and Bahrain. The partnership deal will bring an investment of GBP one billion to the UK, assist in economic diversification in Bahrain and increase cooperation in clean technology, business and manufacturing sectors between the two partners. The two leaders also held talks on the situation in Ukraine and Iran and emphasised the need to put up a united front. (“PM meeting with Prime Minister of Bahrain: 3 July 2023,” Gov.UK, 03 July 2023) 

Two-day Mercosur summit to discuss EU trade deal
On 03 July, Euronews reported that the South American trade bloc Mercosur will begin a two-day summit in Argentina to discuss the relations of the EU with South America. The goal of the summit is to discuss the blocked EU-Mercosur trade deal that was theoretically achieved in 2019 but is yet to begin in practice. The major reason for the obstacle has been environmental concerns from the EU, especially over the Amazon forests. The EU has attached a “side letter” to the original agreement but this demand has been condemned by South American leaders. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silba, Brazil’s President, had remarked: "Strategic partners should have a relationship of mutual trust, not mistrust and sanctions." Mercosur is a regional bloc that includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay which accounts for 62 per cent of South America’s population.  (Philip Andrew Churm, “South American trade bloc Mercosur holds summit for EU trade deal,” Euronews, 03 July 2023)

UK-Nigeria discusses on various improvement aspects
On 03 July, GOV.UK reported on the joint communique for the Migration, Justice and Home Affairs Dialogue which was held on 10 May 2023. Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the United Kingdom Home Office reinforced on the relationship between the countries. The countries acknowledged the shared excellent cooperation and has expressed the necessity to improve on various sectors such as health workforce, information-sharing strategy, data-sharing agreement. The countries expressed their mutual gratitude and prevention of vulnerable crimes such as trafficking, illicit financial and commodities flow and gang crimes. UK’s joint work shared their desire on promoting security. The next talks would be held on 2023, which would involve upper authorities, ministries, departments and agencies from both the respective countries. (“Nigeria-UK Migration, Justice and Home Affairs Dialogue,” GOV.UK, 03 July 2023)


03 July 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #559

The French Summit for a New Global Financing Pact

War in Ukraine: Day 493 & 494

Photo : Lewis Joly/Pool via REUTERS


IN FOCUS
By Sneha Surendran

The French Summit for a New Global Financing Pact 

What happened?
On 23 and 24 June, France hosted the New Global Financing Pact summit in Paris. Barbados and India were the co-hosts. Heads of state, officials from international organizations, NGOs, and activists attended the event. In his address, host Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron stated the intended result of the summit, saying: "Policymakers and countries shouldn't ever have to choose between reducing poverty and protecting the planet." The two-day summit saw officials deliberate upon climate change, climate financing, reforms of multilateral financial institutions and the impacts on economies due to the pandemic and wars. 

What is the background?
First, delayed promises and climate debt. Several countries have taken the pledge to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, studies show that climate action continues to lack commitment. For instance, during COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries decided to collectively secure USD 100 billion every year by 2020 to assist climate projects in developing countries. In 2020, the OECD reported that the net amount raised was USD 83 billion. Macron reiterated the commitment to this scheme, saying that he is "confident" of the target being reached this year. A March 2023 UN report titled 'Tackling debt and climate challenges in tandem' showed that the debt crisis in developing countries was aggravating climate change. 29 out of 69 poor countries plus lower-middle-income countries that defaulted are at crossroads of high debt and climate vulnerability. The report called for the restructuring of global financial systems. With natural disasters increasing in number and intensity, climate-vulnerable nations find themselves borrowing money for relief and reconstruction. 

Second, the hesitant private sector. Twenty-five per cent of global climate investments happen in South Asia, Latin America, and Africa, which have some of the most ecologically vulnerable zones. Countries here can access loans only after agreeing to several conditions. Further, the tax structures within low and middle-income countries and weak institutional frameworks deter private companies from investing in green schemes. The private sector cannot quantify the risk and benefits they could face in these countries regarding climate change impacts. Additionally, the inability to forecast high returns makes them cautious about investing.

Third, the North-South divide. Presently, the countries of the Global North are responsible for the accumulation of high atmospheric emissions. Historically, the US has emitted the highest share of carbon, followed by EU countries and China. In comparison, the countries of the Global South have contributed a significantly lower per cent of emissions. However, the numerous climate pacts today tend to focus on the actions taken by the Global North. The two sides end up shifting blame, with questions on climate justice factoring in.

What does it mean?
First, the Global South gearing up to fight climate change. Barbados' Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who has emerged as a new voice leading the call for climate action, called for a "total transformation" of international institutions. Her Bridgetown Initiative was an important agenda at the event. It is a five-point proposal that addresses climate financing, global inequality and poverty in developing countries while providing possible solutions incorporating global financial institutions. The carbon footprint of the Global North is over 100 times greater than the Global South. However, emerging economies face the brunt of climate change while industrialized nations are better equipped, technology and finance-wise, to deal with it. 

Second, the relevance of contemporary financial institutions. Contemporary global institutions like the World Bank and the IMF were products of a post-World War II rebuilding effort. Since then, the world has undergone massive changes, including pandemics, shifting geopolitical relationships and a worsening climate. Moreover, these challenges have had a disproportionate impact on the developing and under-developed nations. The inability of global institutions to help alleviate their troubles, coupled with the dominance of developed countries within these institutions, has slowly chipped away the trust in them. A look at the policies of these institutions also reveal that they have exacerbated the debt crisis in poor countries. This has increased the call for institutional reforms over time.  

The note was previously published part of “The World This Week.”


War in Ukraine: Day 493 & 494
By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 01 July, Ukraine’s Parliament unanimously approved draft law No. 8401, which restores the country's taxation system to its pre-war state. The law, set to take effect on 01 August 2023, received support from 239 MPs. The adoption of this legislation is a crucial requirement outlined in the agreement with the IMF. Under the new law, the two per cent single tax will be abolished, and taxpayers will have the option to choose an alternative taxation system by submitting an application.
 
On 01 July, Ukrinform reported on the statement by Andrii Demchenko, State Border Guard Service spokesperson of Ukraine, over the control of borders due to the threat of the Wagner Group. According to him, Ukraine has asserted control over the situation in Belarus, where approximately 8,000 mercenaries from Russia's Wagner private military company could be stationed. Demchenko stated that to address potential risks associated with Belarus accommodating mercenaries, Ukraine is reinforcing its defences in the region. 
 
On 01 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine and Pedro Sánchez, the President of the Government of Spain, issued a joint declaration. The declaration emphasizes the condemnation of Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine and calls for an immediate and complete withdrawal of all Russian military forces from Ukraine. Spain pledges to actively participate in Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction, with a focus on fostering transparent and inclusive national reconstruction. 
 
On 02 July, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook about the fighting in various directions against Russia. The main focus of Russian aggression remains on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marinka directions. On 01 July, there were 46 combat engagements. In the Volyn, Polissia, Siverskyi, and Slobozhanskyi directions, Russian forces maintained a military presence and conducted airstrikes and artillery strikes on multiple settlements. Ukraine successfully repelled attacks in the Marinka direction, while unsuccessful Russian offensive actions were reported in other areas. 
 
On 02 July, TCH news reported that Russian forces formed counterattack units to impede the Ukrainian Armed Forces' progress in capturing Klishchiivka and maintaining logistical access to Bakhmut. The Head of the Press Service stated that Russians have reinforced their positions on both the southern and northern flanks. Airborne assault units have been deployed on the southern defensive line, while an infantry unit was stationed on the northern flank.

On 02 July, Hanna Maliar, the Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine reported on Telegram that Russia is making advances in multiple directions. She stated that the advances includes Avdiivskyi, Marinskyi, and Lymanskyi. In the Svativ direction, Russia has also moved forward and is attacking Bilogorivka and Serebryanka. In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian forces are making progress on the southern flank while fighting continues in the north, where Russia has deployed two airborne assault regiments. In the south, Ukrainian troops are persistently creating conditions for swift forward movement in the Berdyansk and Melitopol directions.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 July, RT news reported on Japan’s exclusion of three Russian energy projects from sanctions. According to the Economy Ministry, Japan has announced the exclusion citing their significance to the country's energy security. The exemption applies to service operations related to oil and gas exploration, extraction, liquefaction, storage, transportation, and transshipment, including projects like Sakhalin 1, Sakhalin 2, and Arctic LNG 2. The measure will take effect from 30 September, and allows the provision of services to Russian subsidiaries of Japanese companies. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 01 July, Euractiv reported on the Austrian government's decision to join the Sky Shield Initiative, the air protection group launched by Germany. Karl Nehammer, Austria's Chancellor said: "The threat situation has massively intensified due to the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine. Austria will therefore join the European air defence initiative, Sky Shield." The leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria criticized the decision, arguing that the decision invalidates the country's neutrality.  
 
On 01 July, Deutsche Welle reported on head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) William Burns's opinion that the effect of the war in Ukraine is corrosive to Putin's leadership in Russia and called Wagner group head Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny as its "vivid reminder." He called out the war as a "strategic failure" and said that the Russian disaffection with the war creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the CIA. 

References 
Parliament adopts law on return to pre-war taxation,” Ukrinform, 01 July 2023
Up to 8,000 Wagner Group fighters could stay in Belarus – Ukrainian border guards,” Ukrinform, 01 July 2023
Joint declaration of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the President of the Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez,” president.gov.ua, 01 July 2023
War update: 46 combat engagements occur in three directions,” Ukrinform, 02 July 2023
The situation in Bakhmut is changing dynamically: the Armed Forces told about the enemy's plans,” TCH, 02 July 2023
Heavy fighting is going on everywhere/Anna Painter,” Telegram, 02 July 2023
Russia blocks Wagner-linked news outlets,” RT news, 01 July 2023
Top US general ‘not surprised’ about Ukraine’s slow offensive,” RT news, 01 July 2023
Sophie Williams, Albana Kasapi & Salma Nurmohamed, “Wagner: Russians reflect on group's advance towards Moscow,” BBC news, 02 July 2023
Russian kamikaze drones a major headache for Ukraine – Telegraph,” RT news, 02 July 2023
Japan exempts Russian energy projects from sanctions,” RT news, 02 July 2023
Value of Wagner state contracts revealed by Russian media,” The Press United, 02 July 2023
"EU rushing to secure gas for winter," RT News, 02 July 2023
Nikolaus J Kurmayer, "Neutral Austria to join European Sky Shield initiative," Euractiv, 03 July 2023
"Russia's war in Ukraine 'corrosive' for Vladimir Putin: CIA chiefDeutsche Welle, 02 July 2023
"Kremlin: Palestinian president expresses support for Putin in phone call," The Jerusalem Post, 01 July 2023
"Telephone conversation with President of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas," kremlin.ru, 01 July 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

BELARUS 
Satellite images indicate construction of army camp presumably for Wagner
On 01 July, Planet Labs PLC provided satellite images that depicted military-style camps being built in a former military base outside Osipovichi town in Belarus. The town is 320 kilometers north of Ukraine. On 27 June, Aliaksandr Azarau, leader of the anti-Lukashenko BYPOL guerrilla group had said that a site for Wagner was being built near Osipovichi. Furthermore, Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ President had said that Wagner’s experience could be of use to his country and that he had offered an “abandoned military unit” to them. These statements lead to believe that the site may be assigned for the use of Wagner troops who have been provided sanctuary in Belarus following the failed revolt in Russia. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s border force reported that almost 8000 Wagner fighters will be stationed in Belarus. (“Satellite photos, reports suggest Belarus is building an army camp for Wagner fighters,” Associated Press, 01 July 2023)
 
FRANCE
President puts off official visit to Germany amid escalating violence 
On 01 July, President Emmanuel Macron deferred his planned state visit to Germany in the wake of increasing violence in France. Riots have escalated in the country following the shooting of 17-year-old boy of North African descent by the police on 27 June in Nanterre. On 01 July, President Macron consulted with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier to postpone the meeting which was scheduled for 02-04 July. The state visit was meant to strengthen France-German relations and would have been the first official visit by a French President to Germany since 2000.  (Federica Di Sario, “Macron postpones state visit to Germany as France braces for more turmoil,” Politico, 01 July 2023)
 
GERMANY
The far-right AfD party wins the district election
On 02 July, Hannes Loth, the German’s far-right AfD candidate won the first district election of the small town of Raghun-Jessnitz. The German media reported that, it was first time the party has batched victory for a full-time mayor’s position against independent candidate Nils Naumann. Loth received a vote of 51.1 per cent against Naumann’s 48.9 per cent, and has surged to high opinion polls. The last week’s election recalls Robert Sesselmann’s victory as district administrator in Sonneberg, Thuringia. Hannes Loth further expressed his gratitude calling it the “wonderful result,” and has claimed to work as the mayor for everyone in Raguhn-Jessnitz region. (“German far-right party notches another win,” Le Monde, 02 July 2023)
 
IRELAND
The housing crisis and the infrastructure
On 03 July, BBC reported on Ireland’s heavy housing crisis, which has impacted new investments. Economist John Fitzgerald has estimated that over one-third of all wages in 2021, was paid by multinational companies, yet the country has expressed fresh warnings regarding the housing crisis. After Ireland’s property and banking crisis, there was a severe fall in the housing construction, which has led to the shortfall of infrastructures. IDA Chief Executive Michael Lohan quote: “Housing is a challenge,” and has expressed the necessity in resolving housing related issues. He has expressed gratitude towards government’s initiatives and further mentioned the country’s single biggest threat as “complacency.” The Irish government’s “Housing for All Policy,” aimed at flourishing housing supplies such as cost rental, affordable purchases, etc, which can further benefit 33,000 homes delivery. (“Housing crisis in Ireland undermining new investment – IDA,” BBC, 03 July 2023)
 
LITHUANIA
Annual Pride in Vilnius and opposition
On 02 July, the annual pride march was celebrated, where thousands had marched towards the capital city, Vilnius. Due to its majority Catholic population, the Baltic state’s LGBT+ community has expressed serious concern towards the country’s social and legal discrimination. According to the 2022 study commissioned by the Free Society Institute, Lithuania is the only EU country, which has not legalized same-sex marriage and more than 70 per cent of the natives are against same-sex partnerships, which is one of the highest rates in Europe. The diplomat appointed in 2019 commented: “In Russia, Belarus and many other countries around the world, unfortunately, people risk their lives for doing just what we're doing today.” Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President casted that the LGBT+ concept was imposed by Western values, to clash with the Russian cultural traditions. Protesters from the pride march claimed that, “The government could do more,” as the crowd felt the government decisions to be conducive to LGBT+ rights. The recent letter signed by dozens of Lithuanians, would ensure equal rights for the LGBT+ community. (Joshua Askew, “Lithuania's Pride defies counterprotests, despite slow march to equality,” Euronews, 02 July 2023)
 
THE UK
Climate activists interrupt Pride march
On 01 July, seven climate activists from the group Just Stop Oil briefly disrupted the London pride march. The activists said that the protest was against march organizers accepting sponsorship deals from “high-polluting industries.” They said: “High-polluting industries and the banks that fund them now see pride as a useful vehicle for sanitizing their reputations, waving rainbow flags in one hand whilst accelerating social collapse with the other.” The protestors were detained by the police after 15 minutes and the march resumed. Meanwhile, Will De’Athe-Morris, spokesperson of "Pride of London" a group that organizes London’s pride programs said that the protest should not take away from the message of the parade.  (“Climate activists disrupt London Pride march to protest corporate sponsorship,” Associated Press News, 01 July 2023)
 
UK Minister on visit to Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan
On 03 July, the Gov.UK reported on Minister Leo Docherty’s visit to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The visit aims to focus on energy security, climate cooperation, and business expertise and further UK’s partnership with the two Central Asian states. Docherty stated: “I am here to highlight the role that UK expertise can play in tackling some of the region’s most pressing climate and security challenges.” He will also discuss security matters including UK-Tajikistan counter-terrorism cooperation due to the crisis in Afghanistan. En route to his return to the UK, Docherty will also visit Istanbul to discuss UK-Turkey cooperation in the energy security and infrastructure sector in Central Asia. (Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Leo Docherty MP, “UK Minister promotes British expertise and steps up engagement in Central Asia,” Gov.UK, 03 July 2023) 
 
REGIONAL
Orkney expresses the need to explore ‘alternative governance’
On 02 July, The Guardian reported that Orkney, the archipelago off the north coast of Scotland would leave UK and become a self-governing state of Norway. The Orkney territory considered changing its legal status and has expressed their desire to explore its Nordic neighbours. The Council leader James Stockan stated: “We were part of the Norse kingdom for much longer than we were part of the United Kingdom.” He further stated that the governments in Edinburg and London had failed and the island receives less per capita funding. Although the liberal democrat Liam McArthur had expressed on upcoming dangers due to the barriers, he favoured on empowering island communities. He mentioned that the islanders require reassurance that the exercise would not affect their day-to-day services. The officials reported that the constitutional changes would require combination of petitioners, referendums and legislation. Further, the motions would be discussed on 04 June by the council. (Tom Ambrose, “Orkney could leave UK for Norway as it explores ‘alternative governance’,” The Guardian, 02 July 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Limiting the emissions and its progress towards net zero
On 03 July, the UK Emissions Trading System Authority (UK ETS) has announced its commencement of a reform, which focused on laying tight limits on industrial, power and aviation emissions. UK ETS comprised of the UK government, Scottish government, Department of Agriculture, Welsh government, Environment and Rural affairs in Northern Ireland, promised its consistent support towards the affected industries. From next year, the listed industries are required to bring down the emissions to net zero goal, which would signify its investment towards the decarbonisation process. Between 2024-2027, the markets would receive extra allowances to protect from international pressures. At the end of each year, the remaining unused allowances can be sold to other firms. The authorities have promised on constant monitoring of the availability of the allowances and have expressed the necessity to include funding, regulations and suite policies to regulate the process. Further, the domestic maritime transport, waste incineration and energy from waste sector would be added to the scheme and the authorities has encouraged the companies to eliminate the emissions and invest on clearer alternatives. (“Tighter limit on industrial, power and aviation emissions, as UK leads the way to Net Zero,” GOV.UK, 03 July 2023)

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Euclid telecope to study dark energy, dark matter
On 01 July, the European Space Agency’s Euclid observatory was launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Euclid was sent on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. It will require a month to reach its destination, the second Lagrange (L2) point, at a distance of 1.5 million kilometers. It is expected to spend six years in space. The lead scientist said that Euclid will measure dark energy and dark matter with extreme precision while surveying galaxies. The telescope is fitted with instruments that can observe in visible light and near-infrared and also has a sunshield. Experts from 300 organizations from 13 European countries, the US, Canada, and Japan are included in this project. (UK Space Agency, “Mission to map the “dark Universe” sets off on space journey,” Gov.UK, 01 July 2023; Marcia Dunn, “European telescope launched to hunt for clues to universe’s darkest secrets,” Associated Press, 01 July 2023; “Euclid space telescope blasts off to explore dark matter,” Deutsche Welle, 01 July 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Iran puts off appointment of new ambassador to Sweden
On 02 July, Deutsche Welle reported that despite the completion of administrative formalities, Iran has decided to pause the appointment of a new Swedish ambassador in the wake of the Quran burning incident in Stockholm. Several Islamic countries, including Iran, have seen protests against the incident. On 28 June, an Iraqi national burnt a copy of the Quran in front of a mosque in Stockholm, and the act had been filmed by a man holding Swedish flags. The Swedish government has condemned the incident and authorities have opened investigations against the Iraqi national on charges of agitation against a national or ethnic group. Meanwhile, on 02 July, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OiC), a Saudi Arabia-based body stressed the need to implement measures to prevent future Quran burning incidents. ( “Quran burning: Iran delays Sweden ambassador appointment,” Deutsche Welle, 02 July 2023) 


30 June 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #557

France: Return of Violence | War in Ukraine: Day 491

EU leaders aim to address issue of migrations; EU summit discusses on different agendas, as migration issue hike in Europe

Photo : Michel Euler/Associated Press


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

France: Return of violence, this time over a police shooting
On 27 June, France 24 reported on the shooting of a 17-year-old Nahel in Nanterre. The initial police reports accused the teen; however, later the video released on social media showed the police pointing the weapon at the teen. Since the death of Nahel and video, there were spontaneous protests across France leading to violent clashes against the police and government.
 
On 28 June, France’s President Emmanuel Macron called the violence as “unjustifiable.” On 29 June, as the violence furthered, interior minister ordered for the deployment of 40,000 police officers and imposed curfew in the northern suburb of Nanterre, where the outbreak of protests is uncontrollable.
 
Mapping the protest
The protests began in the form of a “White March” in the northern suburb of Nanterre, where Nahel belong. Tensions started when the protestors used projectiles on police and the protest spread to other cities of France. This led to firing tear gas against 6,200 people.
 
Majority of clashes are in north, central and southwest of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Pau, Toulouse and Lille. The protestors included a majority of youth, people from working class, African descent, French black and Muslims protesting for “justice for Nahel.” The protesters largely point to the issues of racial discrimination, and growing police misconduct, which are not new for France.
 
Previous riots and debates
Debate over “race, power, identity,” and police brutality has existed since 2005 when two teens were killed in similar police run. This resulted in riots across France against racial discrimination. An investigation in 2017 by France’s civil-liberties ombudsman reveled that young black being subject more than 20 times of identity check compared to the entire population. In 2020, HRW and Amnesty International launched a “class action” against the government for not addressing the issue of ethnic profiling by police. Other cases have also reflected police misconduct, the lag in legal proceedings, whereas convictions has been exceptional.
 
The government responses
The investigation which initially did not accept the blame on the police, later the officer was charged and given custody before trial. This provoked further protests and by 29 June differing from earlier cases announced that the police officer would be detained under charges of “intentional homicide.” In response the police unions criticized the government for detention.
 
In case of the government, citing the reasons of “Public order disturbance,” asked 40,000 police to be deployed to counter the violence and according to France24 the units were “heavily equipped and have armoured vehicules.” The interior minister issued a statement supporting the police officer in controlling the unrest, while the mayor of Paris asked the people to remain calm to let “justice to do its necessary job.” According to the report from France24 till now 421 have been arrested belonging to14-18 ages. The government’s harsh response to the protests is nothing old. According to the previous report from Foreign Policy, in 2018 and 2019, it dealt with the “Yellow Jackets” protests, by equipping the security forces with weapons that would cause serious injuries. This has turning to become a provoking factor behind the protests on increasing the police brutality and the larger gap in government’s action towards policing.
 
Macron in crossfire
The timing of the police shooting, and the subsequent unrest is not favor of Macron. France is becoming a frequent place for protests from pension reforms, inflation to police brutality. For Macron, who has a highflyer agenda to make France a key regional player in terms of maritime governance, aviation, regional integration, and diplomacy, the internal problems continue to hitch his domestic governance and continuity.

References
Claire Paccalin “France sees third night of violence amid protests over fatal police shooting of teen,” France24, 29 June 2023
Catherine Porter, “In Nahel M., a Stranger Killed by Police, French Protesters See Friend and Kin,” The New York Times, 29 June 2023
Clea Caulcutt, “France deploys 40,000 police as Macron seeks to avoid 2005 riots rerun,” Politico, 29 June 2023
Pauline Bock, “Emmanuel Macron’s Year of Cracking Heads,” Foreign Policy, 29 November 2019


War in Ukraine: Day 491
By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 29 June, according to Hanna Malyar, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine the Defence Forces' offensive operation in Melitopol, Berdiansk, and Bakhmut directions is making progress. The troops are engaged in fierce battles, seizing Russian-held territory. Meanwhile, Russia's unsuccessful offensive continues in Lyman, Avdiivka, and Marinka directions. Ukrainian troops are successfully consolidating their positions in Rivnopil-Volodymyr, inflicting significant losses on Russia. Russia is mobilizing reserves, including a marine brigade that previously fled Kherson. Ukrainian forces have made advances of 1300 meters in Berdiansk, intercepted the operational initiative in Bakhmut, and made progress in Klishchiyivka and Kurdiumivka directions.

On 29 June, Ukrinform reported on a video posted by the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service. As shown in the video, Ukrainian border guard officers successfully targeted and destroyed a Russian infantry group and ammunition depot using mortar fire, in the Bakhmut direction.
 
On 29 June, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, expressed gratitude and highlighted the heroic efforts of Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline against Russian aggression. He emphasized that Russia's weakness is essential for Ukraine's and Europe's security, urging continued support and defence cooperation. Zelenskyy praised the EU's sanctions policy and called for strengthened measures to prevent Russia from evading sanctions.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 June, RT news reported on the comments on the Wagner Group by MP Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Russian Duma's Defence Committee. According to him, the Wagner Group, which launched an insurrection last week, was the only military formation that had declined to sign a contract with the Russian Defence Ministry. Kartapolov stated that the Defence Ministry has mandated all military groups to sign contracts, with Wagner being the exception. Consequently, Moscow's authorities informed Wagner that it would no longer receive financial or material resources, leading to its exclusion from the military campaign in Ukraine. Kartapolov attributed the group's actions to a combination of defunding threats, ambitious aspirations, and emotional agitation.

On 29 June, RT news reported on the comments made by Apty Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen special force 'Akhmat' of Russia on Russia 1 TV. He stated that Ukraine's recent offensive has failed to breach any of Moscow's defensive lines.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 29 June, Reuters reported on the recent satellite imagery from the European Space Agency's Sentinel 2 satellites captured on 27 June. They reveal the rapid construction of new facilities at a military base southeast of Minsk, Belarus, indicating the potential establishment of a base for Wagner, the Russian mercenary company involved in a failed mutiny. Reports suggest Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, arrived in Belarus and intends to utilize a vacant military facility near Asipovichi, approximately 90 km (50 miles) from Minsk. Images show the emergence of long structures in the nearby village of Tsel, an area that appeared empty on 14 June. The construction's purpose remains unverified.

On 29 June, BBC news reported that following the mutiny that raised concerns of civil war, the Wagner Group continues to recruit fighters across Russia. Contacting numerous recruitment centers, using a Russian phone number and claiming to inquire on behalf of a brother, it was confirmed that recruitment operations are ongoing.

On 29 June, nato.int reported that at the invitation of Charles Michel, President of European Council, Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General participated in the European Council meeting. During the meeting, the Secretary General commended the strong partnership between NATO and the EU, emphasizing its unprecedented level. This partnership plays a crucial role in supporting Ukraine and addressing other pressing challenges. The Secretary General welcomed the cooperation between NATO and the EU concerning critical infrastructure resilience, as well as the release of the assessment report by the NATO-EU Task Force. He expressed gratitude to the European Commission and the European External Action Service for their collaborative efforts in producing the report, which outlines practical measures to enhance cooperation. 
 
On 29 June, Euronews reported that EU member states bordering Belarus called for increased solidarity from both the EU and NATO regarding the presence of the Wagner mercenary group and the potential risk of infiltration into their countries. Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš, the Prime Minister of Latvia, expressed concern over the trained fighters joining Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner leader, and emphasized the need for heightened border awareness and control. Poland has urged the EU to fund enhanced border security. Gitanas Nausėda, President of Lithuania, expressed extreme concern, referring to the fighters as potential threats. These developments highlight the importance of NATO strengthening its eastern flank.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War

On 29 June, the IMF completed the first review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine, allowing the country to access approximately USD 890 million for budget support. The EFF, approved in March 2023, is part of a USD 115 billion support package for Ukraine. The IMF reported that despite challenging conditions, Ukraine has made significant progress in meeting its commitments under the EFF. Continued commitment to reforms and ownership of the program is crucial for macroeconomic stability, institutional improvements, and support for reconstruction efforts, as well as Ukraine's path to EU accession. The Ukrainian economy has shown resilience, and efforts to maintain stability and secure external financing need to continue. 

On 29 June, Anadolu Ajansi reported that Gustavo Petro, the President of Colombia, announced that his government would lodge a diplomatic protest with Russia following a missile attack in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, that injured three Colombian citizens and claimed the lives of 11 people. The victims, including Sergio Jaramillo, a former chief peace negotiator, Hector Abad Faciolince, a writer and Catalina Gómez Ángel, a journalist, were in Ukraine for a book fair. Petro condemned Russia's actions and called for the safe return of the Colombians.

References 
Ukrainian Defense Forces intercept operational initiative in Bakhmut direction - Malyar,” Ukrinform, 29 June 2023
Border guards neutralize enemy infantry group, ammo depot near Bakhmut,” Ukrinform, 29 June 2023
This is a historic time to start negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the European Union - speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the meeting of the European Council,” president.gov.ua, 29 June 2023
Estonia draws up plan to transfer frozen Russian money – media,” RT news, 29 June 2023
Russian MP gives reason for Wagner mutiny,” RT news, 29 June 2023
Ukrainians can’t break through our defenses – Chechen commander,” RT news, 29 June 2023
ASI Forum "Strong Ideas for the New Time",” kremlin.ru, 29 June 2023
Satellite images appear to show build-up at Wagner base in Belarus,” Reuters, 29 June 2023
Sarah Rainsford, “Wagner still recruiting despite mutiny, BBC finds,” BBC news, 29 June 2023
Secretary General at European Council: NATO-EU cooperation is key to supporting Ukraine, responding to key security challenges,” nato.int, 29 June 2023
Alice Tidey, “Latvia, Lithuania & Poland concerned about risk of Wagner 'serial killers' in neighbouring Belarus,” Euronews, 29 June 2023
IMF Executive Board Completes the First Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement for Ukraine,” imf.org, 29 June 2023
Laura Gamba Fadul, “Colombian president announces diplomatic protest after Russian missile strike in Ukraine,” Anadolu Ajansi, 29 June 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

FRANCE
Around 40,000 police officers were deployed after the violent unrest spread the country
On 29 June, French president declared an emergency Cabinet meeting, after a 17-year-old was shot by police during a traffic check. Although, there emerged questions on whether the teenager had threatened the police officers, the President stated the incident as: “inexplicable” and “inexcusable.” Over 40,000 police officers were deployed across France to maintain stability and the officials were warned to avoid any provocative behaviour. Francois Molins, a former prosecutor of Northern Paris expressed his concern on whether there might be a recurrence of the 2005 incident, which forced the government to declare a state emergency. The incident was followed by immense criticism from the far-left opposition, while the country has continued to stay on a calm state due to greater job access to jobs and wider investments on poorer outskirts under Macron’s government. Further, President Macron stated his awareness on the speed of escalation of allegation on police brutality in France. (Clea Caulcutt, “France deploys 40,000 police as Macron seeks to avoid 2005 riots rerun,” Politico, 29 June 2023, Robin Richardot and Juliette Benezit, “Anger and tension as marchers grieve teenager killed by police,” Le Monde, 29 June 2023)

GREECE 
Syriza party’s leader steps down, calls for party elections
On 29 June, Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Syriza party, announced that he was resigning from his post. On 25 June, his party had lost in Greece’s general elections, garnering just 18 per cent of the votes against the New Democracy party. Tsipras has been leading the left-wing Syriza party since 2012. He announced his decision through a televised address from Athens, stating: “The time has come to start a new cycle…I have therefore decided to propose the election of a new leadership by the members of the party, as stipulated in the party statutes, with immediate recourse.” He also informed that he will not stand as a candidate in the party elections. Alexis Tsipras was the Prime Minister of Greece from 2015 to 2019, heading the country at a time of financial crisis. (Philip Andrew Churm, “Greece's left-wing opposition leader Alexis Tsipras has stepped down following a crushing election defeat,” Euronews, 29 June 2023;  “Greece: Syriza leader Tsipras resigns after major defeat,,” Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2023)

ICELAND
Undersea Infrastructure Security forum alerts Keflavik Airbase
On 29 June, Government of Iceland has issued a report on the Security Forum on Critical Undersea Infrastructure held at Keflavik Air Base, Iceland. It was hosted by the Defence Directorate of Iceland and British Embassy in Reykjavik, along with its deployment of Standing Joint Force Headquarters (SJFHQ). More than 70 representatives from all the JEP of participant and partnered nations discussed on facilitating a structure to combat the critical undersea infrastructure threats. The JEF Defence Ministry has decided to detect, deter and respond to the action which included ensuring best sharing best practices, cooperation, coordination, alignment with NATO’s continued work. The forum provided Iceland with opportunities to attract allies and partners and discuss on the grooming issue. (“Security Forum on Critical Undersea Infrastructure held in Iceland,” Government of Iceland, 29 June 2023)

KOSOVO 
Prime Minister attempts to diffuse tensions along disturbed northen region
On 29 June, Albin Kurti, Kosovo’s Prime Minister, proposed to hold new mayoral elections in four Serb-majority municipalities if, the proposal received support from at least 20 per cent of the electorate in the region. The north Kosovo region is primarily dominated by ethnic Serbs. In April, the mayoral elections in these four municipalities had been boycotted by the ethnic Serbs. They also oppose the ethnic Albanians who won the seats in those elections. Furthermore, Kurti also offered to reduce the presence of the special police forces deployed in the region to guard the municipal buildings. The Prime Minister’s suggestions are an attempt to ease the simmering tensions with neighboring Serbia which began following violent clashes between ethnic Serbs and Kosovo’s police officers in May. Kurti’s offer comes after Serbia released three Kosovo police officers on 26 June. While Serbian authorities claimed that the three officers had crossed over to their side, Kosovo has maintained that the officers were kidnapped from and taken to a Serbian prison. (Florent Bajrami, Llazar Semini, “Kosovo’s prime minister offers to hold new elections in tense Serb-majority municipalities,” AP, 29 June 2023)

SWEDEN
Protesters march towards the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad 
On 29 June, dozens of crowds gathered around the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad, after Salwan Momika, an Iraqi origin residing in Sweden set fire to an Islamic holy book copy in Stockholm’s central mosque a day before. The gathered crowd left the building, after the government deployed a local security force to maintain the unrest. The mob warned that, any intentional damage to the holy book, would be considered extremely offensive. The incident has sparked unrest in various Muslim-majority countries, including Turkey, who further questioned the necessity to provide Sweden with its NATO membership. President Erdogan stated: “We will eventually teach the arrogant Westerners that insulting Muslims is not freedom of thought.” The Middle east nations including Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt has criticised on the action. Iraqi criticised the incident to be “provocative”, while around 1.8 million Hajj worshippers stated that the incident cannot be justified. The Sweden court has allowed the protesters action under “freedom of expression ground.” (Alys Davies, “Sweden Quran burning: Protesters storm embassy in Baghdad,” BBC, 29 June 2023)

Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe’s summer session addresses various agenda
On 19 June, the PACE held a summer session which included the delegation of eight Swedish MPs. The assembly discussed on the political developments in Poland, with two essential rapporteurs. The joint urgent debate discussed on Russia’s aggression over Ukraine and about the participation of Belarusian athletes in the upcoming Paris 2024 Olympics. The challenges of Belarusian exile were debated along with Migration. The issue of migration reported on the major issues such as integration, social inclusion, internally displaced person’s protection through the lens of sports, health and social of undocumented workers. The assembly discussed on the budgets of the Council of Europe, and the expenditure scale of Parliamentary Assembly. Other subjects of discussion include strengthening multilateralism, health care, digital technologies. Further, the President of Slovenia on Wednesday addressed on the questions raised by the members of Assembly. (“Political developments in Poland debated at the summer session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE),” Sveriges Riksdag, 28 June 2023)

THE UK
Court ruling upsets government’s deportation plan 
On 29 June, a court in London ruled that the government’s proposal to deport migrants to Rwanda was unlawful, raising concerns about “deficiencies” in Rwanda’s asylum system. Ian Burnett, one of the three judges, stated: “The deficiencies in the asylum system in Rwanda are such that there are substantial grounds for believing that there is a real risk that persons sent to Rwanda will be returned to their home countries where they face persecution and other inhumane treatment.” This ruling was the result of appeals by human rights organizations and asylum seekers against a December 2022 ruling of the UK High Court. In December 2022, the High Court favoured the government’s Rwanda plan, terming it “lawful.” The latest ruling was welcomed by campaign groups while the government announced its decision to appeal against the verdict in the Supreme Court. The deportation of asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda is one of the top priorities of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. While no deportations have happened yet, the UK has paid GBP 140 million to Rwanda as part of the agreement.  (“UK court rules Rwanda migrant deportations are unlawful,” Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2023; Ben Quinn, Diane Taylor, Pippa Crerar, “Battle over Rwanda deportations to continue as No 10 gears up for appeal,” The Guardian, 29 June 2023) 

ECONOMY 
Europe sees varying inflation trend
On 29 June, AP News reported on official data that inflation within Europe was following different trends. Destatis, a German state statistics office, informed that compared to the previous year, consumer prices in June increased to 6.8 per cent, from 6.3 per cent in May. Meanwhile, Spain’s inflation, compared to last year, showed consumer prices at 1.6 percent in June, which is a drop from the 2.9 percent reported in May.  (“Inflation is moving in different directions in Europe. It hit 6.8% in Germany and 1.6% in Spain,” AP News, 29 June 2023)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Google and Meta blocks Canadian news sector after the demand of payment
On 29 June, Google has blocked Canadian users from availing local news on its platform. The action took place after Ottawa, passed a bill, which required tech companies to pay for the contents. The Online News Act was passed, after the government demanded that the digital giants must maintain a fair deal with the Canadian news sectors, as the sector has been helping in sharing the content through their platforms. Google remarked the law as “unworkable,” stated that the Canadians will struggle to obtain online news. Meta has also blocked the Canadian news on Facebook and Instagram, after the Canadian news sector accused the online dominant advertisers of using their content for free. Although, the country will still be able to access news directly linking the web address to Canadian sites. The Australia’s News code remains the first to demand payment from Google and Met, meanwhile Canadian parliamentary budget stated that the Online News Act would fetch about CAD 330 million per year. (“Google to block local news in Canada in response to media law,” Le Monde, 30 June 2023)

MIGRATION
EU summit discusses on different agendas, as migration issue hike in Europe
On 29 June, Politico reported on the ongoing EU’s negotiations with other countries, on the grounds of providing billions to fund the deals on migrations. Germany has emphasised on to “revitalise” EU-Turkey ties. EU has offered around EUR 10.5 billion to Turkey, along with Libya and Tunisia to house thousands of Syrian refugees. The migration negotiation builds up with increasing discussion on Russia, China and its economic security. Hungary and Poland have expressed their disagreement to EU’s migration deal while Denmark has demanded on making it stricter. The final draft conclusions of the summit had fresh migration funds of around EUR 10.5 billion and EUR 2 billion to manage EU migrations. The Germany has reported that EU leaders are forming wider step to endorse full budget package. Although Turkey-EU relations has resumed after the victory of Erdogan, the country failed to progress on modernizing. (Hans Von Der Burchard, “Migration money feud infiltrates EU summit,” Politico, 29 June 2023)

REGIONAL 
NATO diplomats want Jens Stoltenberg to continue as Secretary General 
On 29 June, NATO diplomats said that the military alliance’s member states have arrived at a consensus to extend the tenure of Jens Stoltenberg as NATO chief for another year. An official announcement is expected to be made next week. Meanwhile, a senior diplomat stated: “He is the best person to be secretary general, not least given the difficult security environment we are in. Hopefully, we will have some good news next week,” when asked about the extension of Stoltenberg’s term. Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian Prime Minister, has been the secretary general of  NATO since 2014. His term was renewed earlier after Ukraine’s invasion in February 2022. The collective decision to keep him continuing as the Secretary General is chalked to his experienced, given the troubled atmosphere in Europe. The decision of his tenure extension comes ahead of the next NATO summit in Vilnius from 11-12 July. (“NATO agrees to extend Stoltenberg mandate, diplomats say,” Le Monde, 29 June 2023; Lili Bayer, Alexander Ward, “Stoltenberg to stay on as NATO chief another year,” Politico, 29 June 2023) 

INTERNATIONAL 
EU leaders aim to address issue of migrations
On 29 June, The Guardian reported that the EU is considering partnering with Egypt to stop irregular migrations and disrupt people-smuggling rings. On 17-19 June, Josep Borrell, EU’s high representative on foreign affairs, had visited Egypt where he pledged EURO 20 million to help manage Sudanese refugees. This move is expected to prove itself as a good base for the anticipated partnership. Apart from Egypt, EU also plans to engage with other African nations to address the problems associated with migrations. This includes the EURO 1 billion deal with Tunisia, which is under negotiations at the European Council summit in Brussels. Sources reported that there were positive responses to the Tunisian deal with Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s Prime Minister, remarking: “Tunisia was an example of what we can do with other countries.” (Lisa O'Carroll, “EU looks to Egypt partnership to tackle people-smuggling networks,” The Guardian, 29 June 2023)


29 June 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #556

EU Reform on Asylum Migration | War in Ukraine: Day 490

Unrest in France after a teen was shot during a traffic check; Switzerland's Federal Council to support ban on commercial exploitation of international sea bed 

Photo : Hussein Ben Mosa/AP


IN FOCUS
By Rishika Yadav

On 08 June, the European Council agreed on regulating the asylum procedure and migration management. The purpose of these two regulations, Asylum Procedure Regulation (APR) and  Asylum and Migration Management Regulation (AMMR), is to simplify and create standardized procedures for member states during the processing of asylum applications. This is done to safeguard the rights of asylum seekers and prevent any misuse of the system. Earlier, in September 2020, the Council of Europe introduced the comprehensive New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The new regulations of June 2023, form a part of its updating the original ones. 

A brief about the 2023 regulation
The 08 June regulations introduce mandatory border procedures to assess the validity of applications at the EU's external borders. They reduce the total duration of the asylum and return border procedure to six months. The current Dublin regulation of 2013 (an EU law on the rules about which country should assess your application for international protection), which determines the member state responsible for asylum applications, will be replaced by the AMMR, simplifying the rules and shortening time limits. A new solidarity mechanism is proposed to address the disproportionate burden on certain member states, allowing for mandatory solidarity contributions, such as relocation or financial support. Measures are also included to prevent abuse by asylum seekers and discourage secondary movements. The agreement introduces charges of EUR 20,000 per head for member countries that refuse to host and accept relocated migrants, aiming to address the burden-sharing issue. 

Opposition from Hungary, Poland and other states:
Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Malta, and Slovakia, either expressed reservations or chose to abstain from voting on the deal. This suggests that they may be opposed to certain aspects of the reforms or have concerns about them. Byron Camilleri, the Minister of Home Affairs of Malta, emphasized that Valletta has unique vulnerabilities and circumstances that differ from other member states. Some countries argue that mandatory redistribution of refugees is impractical due to migrants' preference for settling in North European countries. They fear EU quotas will encourage further migration and view the proposals as an infringement of national sovereignty. Concerns over social tensions, far-right political parties, and the difficulty of integrating migrants from Arab and Muslim countries underpin their opposition. Public opinion in the Visegrad states (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) strongly opposes both enforced quotas and receiving migrants. Poland voiced its criticism of the payments for member countries, referring to them as "fines," and expressed its unwillingness to support a deal that it perceived as "impracticable and detrimental."

Focus on excluding children and unaccompanied minors:
Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Portugal advocate EU migration laws to provide better protection for children and unaccompanied minors. The EU has established various measures and outlined crucial steps to ensure the protection of all migrant children, including those who are alone or separated from their families. Unaccompanied minors, in particular, are highly vulnerable, warranting distinct rules and regulations that differ from those applied to adult refugees or child refugees accompanied by their parents in Germany.

Calls for continued efforts to address the Mediterranean crisis:
While the 08 June agreement is seen as a significant step, there are calls to continue working to prevent tragedies in the Mediterranean, where many migrants have lost their lives attempting dangerous crossings. Moreover, on 16 June, rescue efforts in the Mediterranean dwindled, with more bodies than survivors found from a sunken fishing trawler carrying over 500 people. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed the urgency to act, emphasizing the need to stabilize Tunisia's economy, manage migration, and finalize EU asylum rule reforms. The tragic incident contrasts with the response of former President José Manuel Barroso a decade ago. EU leaders will discuss von der Leyen's plans, but political obstacles persist, hindering equitable refugee sharing. The focus remains on preventing migrant entries, despite a significant increase in unauthorized attempts. Von der Leyen emphasizes limiting irregular departures, fighting smuggling, and establishing comprehensive partnerships with third countries. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum is a work in progress, offering partial agreement but facing potential complications. Saving lives at sea is not a top priority, with the EU responding only to emergency distress calls.

References
Migration policy: Council reaches agreement on key asylum and migration laws,” consilium.europa.eu, 08 June 2023
Lisa O’Carroll, “EU agrees radical reforms on migration and asylum laws,” The Guardian, 09 June 2023
Derek Gatopoulos and Nicholas Paphitis, “Greek coast guard defends actions as more than 500 migrants heading for Europe feared dead in wreck,” AP news, 16 June 2023
Lorne Cook, “New migrant tragedy at sea changes little as EU leaders forge ahead with tougher borders plans,” The Washington Post, 28 June 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 490
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 28 June, Ukrinform reported on the unannounced visit of Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda to Kyiv. According to the same,  Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the “active actions” of Ukrainian troops on the frontlines, preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius, European integration and the Peace Formula summit.
 
On 28 June, Ukrinform reported on the intense fighting in Lyman, Bakhmut and Marinka. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that the Air Force launched 18 strikes against Russian missile systems while destroying six reconnaissance UAVs. According to the same report, the military overpowered a Russian command post, two Buk missile systems, and four personnel, ammunition, and military equipment.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 June, RT News reported on Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko countered the child abduction accusation in Donbas. According to him, Minsk is co-sponsoring the rehabilitation program for the minors affected by the war. According to RT News, he was referring to the humanitarian program led by Aleksey Talay, a Belarusian businessman and Paralympian who lost all his limbs during World War II.
 
On 27 June, according to meduza.io, Ukrainian authorities reported that ten people were killed and around 60 people were injured in the Russian Iskander missiles’ strike in Kramatorsk, Donetsk. The main strike hit the centre of Kramatorsk, destroying a popular restaurant, 18 high-rise buildings, 65 private homes, five schools, two kindergartens, a shopping centre, and a hotel. The second strike hit a private home in Bilenke injuring five residents. Three Colombian citizens were injured in the restaurant. Zelenskyy called the missile strikes “terror” by Russian troops, says meduza.io. The Security Service of Ukraine had detained an agent of the Russian special services who coordinated the attack on the pizzeria. The search and rescue operations are underway with rescuers admitting there may be people under the rubble.

On 28 June, the tenth interregional forum of Russia and Belarus was held in Bashrika. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in his video statement highlighted the growing cooperation between Russia and Belarus and the integration processes within the Union State framework. He noted that the cooperation agreements and commercial contracts signed in the forum would accelerate the economic development and the interconnectedness of the two countries. Emphasizing the trade relations with Belarus, Putin added that the bilateral trade has increased by 12 per cent and it exceeded RUB three trillion; between January and February 2023, it added another 11 per cent. This boost occurred due to the integration processes aimed at removing trade and administrative barriers, linking the laws of two countries in the economic and social spheres and coordinating the national development tasks.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 28 June, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update reported that on the previous strike by Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Chonhar road bridges between Crimea and Russia-occupied Kherson Oblast. These bridges were a crucial road supply route between Crimea and Kerson, connecting Russia’s Crimean logistics hub and Zaporizhzhia. 

On 28 June, Reuters reported that the US has imposed sanctions on four companies in the UAE, Central African Republic and Russia accused of having connections with the Wagner Group and its head Yevgeny Prigozhin. The US Department of Treasury added that these companies were engaged in illicit gold dealings to fund Wagner group to sustain and expand its armed forces in Ukraine and some African countries. Treasury’s Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence commented that the US would continue to target the revenue sources of the Wagner. The Treasury has imposed sanctions also on Andrey Nikolayevich Ivanov, accused of being an executive in Wagner group actively engaged in illicit activities in Mali. According to Reuters, the Wagner group did not respond to the allegations by the US. 

On 28 June, The Guardian reported on NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s comments on Prigozhin’s arrival in Belarus. He was quoted saying that NATO is prepared to defend itself against any attack from “Moscow or Minsk.” Additionally, the alliance has increased its military presence in the eastern flanks and the leaders would take decisions to strengthen its collective defence capabilities in the upcoming summit in July. According to the report in the The Guardian Stoltenberg also cautioned that the West “must not underestimate Russia” and continue supporting Ukraine against the invasion.

References 
Zelenky tells Poland, Lithuania presidents about needs of Ukrainian troops,” Ukrinform, 28 June 2023
Zelensky meets with Presidents of Poland and Lithuania in Kyiv,” Ukrinform, 28 June 2023
War update: Enemy focuses efforts on three directions, over 30 clashes in past day,” Ukrinform, 28 June 2023
Death toll in Russia's attack on Kramatorsk rises to 11,” Ukrinform, 28 June 2023
Lukashenko comments on abduction accusations,’ RT News, 28 June 2023
Russian Iskander missile destroys pizzeria in center of Kramatorsk 11 people killed, more than 50 injured,” meduza.io, 28 June 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 28 June 2023,” Twitter, 28 June 2023
Daphne Psaledakis and Humeyra Pamuk, “US sanctions gold firms suspected of funding Wagner Group,” Reuters, 28 June 2023
Nato ready to face threat from ‘Moscow or Minsk’, says alliance head after Wagner chief’s exile,” The Guardian, 28 June 2023
Russia and Zimbabwe are ‘like-minded’ – ambassador,” RT News, 28 June 2023
Video message at the final session of the X Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus,” kremlin.ru, 28 June 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

FRANCE
Unrest after a teen was shot during a traffic check
On 27 June, protests emerged in France, after the police shot a 17-year-old, during a traffic check. Thousands of security forces were alerted after protesters threw stones at the firefighters in Paris. French Preside Emmanuel Macron stated the incident to be “unforgivable.” Although the interior minister claimed the incident to be: “unacceptable and abject,” later tweeted on the incident, where he cheered the officers and has blamed the teen’s parent for not educating their son. A neighbour of the victim, stated that the country has been experiencing police shooting multiple times. Human rights organizations have urged on strengthening 2017 law, which framed on officers’ access to use firearms. The police officers stated that the teen drove the car, with an intention of hurting them. While the CCTV captured showed the police approaching the driver’s window voluntarily. President Macron has added: "We have a teenager who has been killed. It's inexplicable, unforgivable." The incident has triggered emotions in the country. The victim’s family has charged a complaint against the police officers for lying and investigation will soon be unfolded. (“France shooting: Fresh unrest over police killing of teen,” BBC, 29 June 2023)

MALTA 
New abortion law criticized by pro-choice campaigners 
On 28 June, members of the Parliament in Malta voted to ease the abortion laws under a few conditions. The original bill that was introduced earlier had given abortion access to women if the pregnancy negatively impacted the mother's life or health. According to the new amendments, a woman will now be able to access abortion only if there is a risk of death. Furthermore, this has to be attested by three specialists. Another part of the amendment said that a doctor can carry out an abortion without consultations if the mother’s life is at immediate risk. Pro-choice campaigners withdrew their support to the legislation as they questioned its effectiveness, terming it “vague, unworkable and even dangerous.” (“Malta to allow abortion but only when woman’s life is at risk,” The Guardian, 28 June 2023; Kevin Schembri Orland, “Maltese lawmakers vote to legalize abortion, but only where the mother is at risk of death,” AP, 28 June 2023)

NORWAY 
19 new oil and gas projects approved by ministry of Petroleum and energy
On 28 June, Norway approved USD 19 billion worth of oil and gas projects in the Norwegian continental shelf. There are a total of 19 projects. Norway’s minister for petroleum and energy, Terje Aasland said: “The projects are also an important contribution to Europe’s energy security…Norway was the only net exporter of oil and gas in Europe. By carrying out these projects we ensure new production from the latter half of the 2020s, so that we can maintain high Norwegian deliveries.” The projects will focus on new developments as well as updating some of the existing fields. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, Norway has been benefitting as European countries began looking for alternative energy suppliers. (“Norway approves 19 oil and gas projects, saying the resulting investments are worth over $19 billion,” AP, 28 June 2023)

SWITZERLAND 
Federal Council to support ban on commercial exploitation of international sea bed 
On 28 June, the Federal Council announced its support for a moratorium on the commercial exploitation of the international seabed area until its impact on the marine environment was studied scientifically. The decision will be relayed by Switzerland’s representatives in the 28th session of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) that will be held in Jamaica in July. The Federal Council’s decision is in line with Switzerland’s Maritime Strategy for 2023-2027 which was adopted on 02 June. The ISA is the body that regulates marine resource-related activities in the international sea bed. While it has given licenses for exploration operations in the area, certain states and companies have been requesting access to commercially exploit the mineral resources. This has drawn concerns from scientists and environmental activists who are calling for a moratorium before a final decision. (“Federal Council adopts position on moratorium on commercial exploitation of international seabed area,” The Federal Council, 28 June 2023)

REGIONAL 
Hungary: Sweden’s NATO bid vote postponed 
On 28 June, Hungary’s parliament once again postponed the voting for Sweden’s NATO accession which was on the agenda for next week’s last Spring session. The vote will now be held during the autumn legislation session. Hungary and Turkey are the only two members that are yet to ratify Sweden’s accession request to NATO. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government had previously stated that the reason some of the lawmakers were hesitating on assenting to Sweden’s bid to join NATO was because of Swedish politicians spreading “blatant lies” about Hungary’s democracy. In March, the government had passed Sweden’s bid after many delays when Turkey’s President Erdogan seemed to indicate that they were going to ratify the request. However, with the latest delay, it seems that Sweden will not be a part of the NATO summit next month in Vilnius. (Justin Spike, “Hungary postpones vote on Sweden’s NATO accession bid ahead of summit,” AP, 28 June 2023)

NATO waits for an approval for Sweden’s membership amidst the regional chaos
On 28 June, French President Emmanuel Macron has called Turkey and Hungary to its quick approval of Sweden’s entry into NATO alliance. He said: “It’s now time ... to allow Sweden to attend the Vilnius summit as an ally,” as he recalled the threat faced by the continent. Hungary lawmakers has informed a longer delay until autumn legislative session on ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkey President Erdogan stated that, although the legislation claimed on its anti-terrorism law, the country still holds the Kurdish diaspore of around 1,00,000 people. NATO explained their requirement of unanimous approval from all the member countries. The fear of Russia’s invasion has steered fear in Sweden and Finland, who currently seeks protection under NATO’s security. The report was followed by a burning of Quran, by an Iraqi origin in the Stockholm’s Great Mosque. Turkey emphasized the incident as Sweden’s Islamophobic attitude. (Daniel Bellamy, “NATO Secretary- General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday he has called a meeting of senior officials from Turkey, Sweden and Finland for July 6th,” Euronews, 28 June 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate advisory body calls out UK government
On 28 June, the Climate Change Committee berated the UK government for its slow developments in attaining net zero greenhouse gas emissions, stating that the UK had “lost its clear global leadership position on climate action.” The climate watchdog also called out the government for not adhering to the Glasgow Climate Pact signed during the COP26 that the UK hosted in 2021. The Climate Change Committee is the government's climate advisers and monitors their decarbonization efforts. UK authorities have pledged to reduce emissions by 68 per cent by 2023. John Gummer, chairman of the Committee said: “Even in these times of extraordinary fossil fuel prices, government has been too slow to embrace cleaner, cheaper alternatives and too keen to support new production of coal, oil and gas” pointing out that the government is hesitating to commit to their promises.  (Sylvia Hui, “Climate watchdog slams UK government for backtracking on its fossil fuel pledges,” AP, 28 June 2023)

Climate engineering will soon upgrade their developments
On 28 June, European Commission has reported the risks posed by the usage of climate geo-engineering, and has urged on developing technologies which can curb the heated planet. The commission executive Vice-president mentioned on the considerable future potential Geoengineering, which can bring changes to the climate change issues. Stratospheric aerosol injection, which requires tiny particles that reflects light and Marine cloud brightening technology, which increases the relativity of clouds were the two new developments discussed during the meeting. an expert at Utrecht University along with 450 scientists, expressed their concern stating that the technology can only be understood after its been deployed on a global level. They also mentioned that the small-scare experiments cannot be judged on large scale outcomes. Further, the scientists are worried about the countries deciding on monopolistic markets indicating clear geopolitical risks. (Maria Psara, “European Commission calls for international discussions on risks of climate engineering,” Euronews, 28 June 2023)

ECONOMY
Digital euros can facilitate the economy says European Commission
On 28 June, the European Commission reported on the new proposal, which allowed people to store the digital euros up to EUR 3000. With increasing usage of daily transactions, and with the elevating popularity of crypto currencies, the digital euro would be an electronic cash in Central Bank Digital Currency. The Commission’s executive Vice-President Valdis Domdrovskis stated on an easy of digital euros in public money and its access without an internet connection. Based on the report, the Commissioner declared that over 55 per cent has given their preference over cashless payment. Although the initiative received criticism and questions regarding the safety, Valdis reminded that the digital euro can protect and stabilise the outflows from banks. (Efi Koustsokosta, “Brussels unveils plans for a digital euro promising complete privacy,” Euronews, 28 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU seeks agreement with Tunisia to control migration
On 29 June, Le Monde reported regarding the “global partnership” deal between EU and Tunisia and its dragging negotiations. The commission had announced investment of around EUR 105 million intended to curb the political, economic crisis, along with its military cooperation. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomed the proposal while Kais Saied disapproved stating that the country does not want to play “boarder guard” for Europe. EU hoped for swift agreement, although the country understands that the issue does not align with their political differences. Brussels reminded that the opposition from Poland and Hungary would not hinder the fostered idea of managing migration internally. Further, Frontex reported that Union borders experience over 1,02,000 irregular crossing, half of them via Mediterranean route from Tunisia and Libya would soon be curbed and managed through the agreement. ("Philippe Jacque, “EU seeks migration cooperation agreements with North African countries,” Le Monde, 29 June 2023)


27 June 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #554

War in Ukraine: Day 488 | Baerbock stresses on Ukraine War during the visit to South Africa

Lithuania to receive troops from Germany; H&M workers strike as the inflation in Europe peaks high

Photo : Christoph Soeder/dpa/Deutsche Welle


War in Ukraine: Day 488
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 26 June, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on telegram that Ukrainian defence forces have gained "tactical success'' in the east. She noted that Russian forces are engaged in an offensive in Lymansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiyivskyi and Marinskyi. Meanwhile, Ukrainian defence forces began counter-offensive in Orekhovo-Vasylivna, Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, Yagidne, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka. In southern Ukraine, counter-offensive continues in Melitopol and Berdyansk, increasing the regained area up to 17 kilometres. Tauri witnessed 148 intense Russian attacks. She also said that Ukrainian defence forces have regained Rivnopil, a village in southeastern Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 26 June, RT News reported on the Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's visit to the forward command post of the 'West' grouping of forces engaged in the war in Ukraine. According to the statement released by the Defence Ministry, Shoigu assessed the situation in the frontline and noted the effectiveness of Russian forces operating in Kharkov, says RT News. He also held discussions with the commander of the grouping, Colonel General Evgeny Nikiforov. 
 
On 26 June, meduza.io, quoting TASS, reported that the recruitment centre for Wagner Group in Novosibirsk and Tyumen has resumed work. The advertisement posters removed on 24 June were hung again. The PMC Wagner Center in St. Petersburg also resumed working, says meduza.io, the confiscated computers are also being returned. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 27 June, according to the Financial Times, Germany raised objections to the European Commission's plans to raid frozen Russian central bank assets for Ukraine's reconstruction. The European Commission plans to raise billions of euros by requiring financial institutions holding immobilized Russian assets to share profits for Ukraine reconstruction.  Financial Times reported that Berlin and other capitals have called for further reflection over the ideas due to the financial and legal risks it poses. EU spokesperson Christian Wigand said that EU leaders' summit in Brussels will provide further guidance on channeling Russian central bank assets to support Ukraine. The report also highlighted Canada's support for the proposal. 
 
On 26 June, the European Council decided to increase the European Peace Facility's  overall financial ceiling by EUR 3.5 billion, aiming to ensure long-term financial sustainability and predictability. The overall financial ceiling now totals more than EUR 12 billion (in current prices) following the decision. The EPF, established in March 2021, aims to finance actions to strengthen non-EU countries and regional organizations in military and defence matters. The EU has been supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces through seven support packages along with several other European and African countries. 
 
On 26 June, the UK Defence Ministry in its update, Ukraine's progress in the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut. According to the update, Russia lacks significant ground forces reserves to counter multiple threats from Bakhmut to the eastern bank of Dnipro River.
 
On 26 June, the Danish government started the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets, says AP News. Minister of Economy Lund Poulsen said that Denmark is also considering a donation of F-16 fighters to Ukraine.
 
On 26 June, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany's Foreign Minister Anna Baerbock's upcoming visit to South Africa on 27 June. The visit would focus on discussing South African stance on the Ukraine war and how the country can contribute to end Russian aggression and uphold the UN Charter. She said: "When the country of Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutus raises his voice against injustice, the world listens." She hailed the peace initiative of President Cyril Ramaphosa and commented that the delegation "made it clear that the brutal war in Europe also affects Africa." 

References 
Hanna Maliar, "For the last week, " Telegram, 26 June 2023
"Ukraine regains control of Rivnopil in Donetsk region," Ukrinform, 26 June 2023
"Ukraine peace talks to begin in July - German state media," RT News, 26 June 2023
"Russia's defense minister visits frontline command post," RT News, 26 June 2023
"Recruitment centers for PMC Wagner resumed work in Novosibirsk and Tyumen," meduza.io, 26 June 2023
"Latest Defense Intelligence Update on the situation in Ukraine," Twitter, 26 June 2023
"European Peace Facility: Council agrees on second top-up of the overall financial ceiling by €3.5 billion," consilium.europa.eu, 26 June 2023
"Denmark to start the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s," AP News, 26 June 2023
"Baerbock focuses on Ukraine war during visit to South Africa," Deutsche Welle, 26 June 2023
"Germany pushes back against EU plan to raid frozen Russian assets," The Financial Times, 26 June 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

GERMANY
Lithuania to receive troops  
On 26 June, Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that 4000 troops will be deployed in Lithuania to guard the eastern borders. During a visit to Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, he said: “Germany is ready to permanently station a robust brigade in Lithuania.” This comes after repeated requests from Lithuania for permanent combat troops from Germany. However, till recently, Germany had sidestepped . (“Germany to station 4,000 troops in Lithuania,” Deutsche Welle, 26 June 2023)

The far-right party wins the local election
On 25 June, for the first time, Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the local election held in Sonnenberg town in Germany. The Spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit stated: “Our country is shaped by values such as fairness, tolerance, decency and respect.” The victory of the AfD was widely criticized by the anti-racism campaigners, as the party falls under the scrutiny over is ties with extremists. The holocaust survivor Charlotte Knobloch, stated that the voters of the Sonnenberg town has made “a dangerous decision.” Further, the report mentioned that the AfD was founded on 2013, and had first entered the parliament along with its anti-migration campaign. The present-day governor Bodo Ramelow of the left party stated the victory of the AfD as threat to Germany due to its Western populism influence. Further the centre-right Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz blamed the environmentalist Green Party for alienating voters. Finally, the Green party co-leader Ricarda Lang stated the victory of the AfD as: “a threat to democracy.” (“German government calls for tolerance after far-right party wins control of a country for first time,” AP, 26 June 2023)

NETHERLANDS
Dutch arrested two on suspicion of funding Palestinian militant group Hamas
On 26 June, the prosecutor declared that, a 55-year-old man and his 25-year-old daughter were detained by Dutch authorities from the town of Leidschendam. The arrest was based on the suspicion of violating the sanction regulations, and of sending millions of euros to the Palestinian militant group, Hamas that runs the Gaza Strip. The public prosecution officer stated that the suspected amount was about EUR 5.5 million, and both the suspects are speculated to have participated in various other foundations and criminal organizations, which financially supports the Hamas. The Dutch authorities has seized uncovered cash and bank account holdings of EUR 7,50,000 from Leidschendnam and Rotterdam. Their identities were not mentioned and are kept disclosed. Further, the statement mentioned prominent presence of pro-Palestinian and pro-Gaza organizations in Netherlands, which plays key role in the international network finding linkage for Hamas. (“Dutch authorities detain father, daughter on suspicion of funding Palestinian militant group Hamas,” AP, 26 June 2023)

SPAIN
H&M workers strike as the inflation in Europe peaks high
On 26 June, more than 4,000 Spanish employees of various Swedish multinational brands including H&M, has walked off the job forming a mass round of strike. The crowd protested on the immense workloads along with the need for pay rises, to withstand the higher cost of living in the country. It was reported to be a three-day strike, and the employees has closed the H&M stores in Madrid, and has demanded better conditions as the online sales has hindered the retail industry. Due to the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the inflation in Europe has hiked up, which has gradually raised the consumer’s price. The series of strike commenced after the UGT, CCOO unions and H&M has broke down. The closure of 100 stores, has impacted heavily on other larger stores, which receives online orders. Further, in the home country of H&M, Sweden, the workers were reportedly pressed into the precarity of zero-hour contracts. (Jennifer O’Mahony, “H&M workers strike for higher pay across Spain, shutting down stores,” AP¸ 26 June 2023)
 

ECONOMY 
Italy confirms EURO 320 billion in medium to long term bonds 
On 27 June, a document from the State Treasury reported that despite increasing state budget deficit, Italy is going to issue medium to long-term sovereign bonds in 2023. EURO 118 billion is estimated between July and December in addition to the EURO 202 billion bonds that was sold in the first half. This year, Italy’s deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 4.5 per cent, which is in line with the plan to push it below the EU ceiling of three per cent by 2026. This year’s GDP growth is estimated to be over one per cent. (Giuseppe Fonte, Antonella Cinelli, Sara Rossi, “Italy confirms 2023 debt guidance despite ballooning state budget deficit,” Reuters, 27 June 2023) 

INTERNATIONAL
Deporting asylum seekers to cost UK GBP 169,000 per person
On 26 June, an assessment showed that sending asylum seekers to Rwanda will cost Britain GBP 169,000 per individual. The deportation is part of a 2022 deal between Britain and Rwanda. The government also hopes that the plan will stop asylum seekers from arriving in boats to the country. Home Secretary Suella Bracerman said that unless the issue of asylum seekers is addressed, the cost of housing them will rise to GBP 11 billion from the current GBP 3.6 billion. The opposition Labour party has termed the report a “complete joke” and that it does not disclose the actual amount that will be spent on the deportations. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party has criticised the government for spending an “astronomical” amount of money to deport people while not alleviating the increasing costs of mortgage and food bills. (Andrew Macaskill, “UK estimates cost of deporting each asylum seeker to Rwanda will be 169,000 pounds,” Reuters, 26 June 2023)


26 June 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #553

Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts | War in Ukraine: Day 486 & 487

Greece's New Democracy party wins in the second round of elections; EU alert to border countries after the Wagner threat; Germany to support Georgia's Hydrogen Project

Photo : REUTERS/Stringer


EM Comment
By Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan

Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
What happened?
On 23 June, Prigozhin, a long-time ally of Putin and the leader of the private army Wagner Group revolted, claiming that the Russian military had killed many of his fighters in an airstrike. The Russian Defence Ministry denied these claims. Prigozhin said: "There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in this country." He also threatened to destroy checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. On the same night, security in Russia was tightened, and the internet was restricted while military trucks were spotted on Moscow streets. 

On 24 June, according to reports, the Wagner mercenaries had seized military facilities in Voronezh, a city halfway between Rostov and Moscow. Prigozhin said his fighters had entered Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine, and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way. Further, the Wagner group proclaimed that its mercenaries had seized all military facilities in Voronezh and added that they would march on Moscow to topple the defence minister Sergei Shoigu. 

On the same day, President Putin made an emergency address, saying Russia was facing "treason." According to his statement: "All those who consciously stood on the part of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the part of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people." Prigozhin responded, saying that his troops were "patriots of our motherland," and the president was "deeply wrong" to talk of betrayal. 

By 24 June evening, the Wagner fighters were advancing through the Lipetsk region, around 450 km from Moscow. The Wagner Group also announced that most Russian army units in the area were switching sides. There were also reports of Wagner fighters leaving the missions in Africa, and Syria, to join the revolt against Moscow. On the other hand, according to state reports, Russian air forces have struck Wagner convoys, and defensive positions around Moscow were set up. 

In a late-night development on 24 June, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko broke a deal between Russia and the Wagner Group. Prigozhin agreed to halt his advance towards Moscow and relocate to Belarus. Through a Telegram post, he had ordered his forces to return to their bases to avoid bloodshed. Following the deal, the Wagner fighters initiated their departure from Rostov-on-Don, which served as the starting point of their mutiny. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, announced that the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and the Wagner fighters involved in the "march for justice" would not face the consequences due to their previous service to Russia. Non-participating fighters are expected to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry by 01 July as part of efforts to centralize volunteer forces. Specific concessions made to Prigozhin remain undisclosed. 

What is the background?
First, the increasing tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian military. The differences between the two had been growing over how the war has been fought in Ukraine, with the Wagner group's strong criticisms of Russia's military leadership in recent months. Prigozhin repeatedly mentioned Russia's failure to provide sufficient ammunition, resulting in enormous casualties for the Wagner Group. The Wagner had threatened to withdraw from Bakhmut and complained about Russian military authorities for their incompetence. Prigozhin also blamed the Russian military leadership for attacking his men. The present escalation came after Prigozhin accused Russia's military of hitting his group's base in Ukraine. He threatened: "We are going onwards and we will go to the end. We will destroy everything that stands in our way." 

Second, the Wagner complaints over the last few months. Since joining the Russian troops at Bakhmut, Prigozhin had complained against the military, accusing them of not supplying ammunition for his fighters. In February, Prigozhin shared an image of dead fighters and blamed the military leaders for their death. In March, in a video message, he claimed that his fighters were being "set up" as scapegoats to take the blame in case Russia lost the war. Also in March, he complained about not getting ammunition according to the agreement calling it: "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal." As the battle for Bakhmut raged on, so did Prigozhin's social media rants against the military top brass. In one of his social media posts, he said: "The shells are lying in warehouses, they are resting there…why are the shells lying in the warehouses? There are people who fight, and there are people who have learned once in their lives that there must be a reserve, and they save, save, save those reserves…Instead of spending a shell to kill the enemy, they kill our soldiers. And happy grandfather thinks this is okay." In another post, he said: "There was only Wagner here...We fought not only the Ukrainian army here, we fought Russian bureaucracy." 

Third, the Belarus intervention. President Alexander Lukashenko, a close friend of President Putin, also has a long-standing personal connection with Yevgeny Prigozhin. He has played a mediating role in the agreement between Putin and Prigozhin. Initially, Putin had vowed to punish the mutineers, but the focus shifted towards avoiding further confrontation and bloodshed. Lukashenko's involvement in mediating the crisis highlights his influence and ties with Putin and the Wagner Group. 

What does it mean?
First, the fractured equation between Wagner and Russia. The Wagner group is considered Russia's most effective unit among the mercenary groups. From its extensive role in Africa, Syria, in the Crimean annexation in 2014 to the battles in Soledar and Bakhmut in the Ukraine war, Prigozhin has been at the forefront for Russia. The relations began to crack when Russia grew dependent on the Wagner group. Russia's shortage of personnel and constraints to restrict new mobilization delegated Wagner's head to deploy his forces. Wagner group's major role in Soledar and Bakhmut battles showcased its capability, while the Russian military was criticized for not giving enough ammunition and being ineffective in holding control. 

Second, the blow to bring the Wagner Group under the effective control of the Russian military. The Wagner's head did not accept the military's efforts to bring the mercenary units under one contract. The revolt could be seen as a reflection of unwillingness of the Wagner to work under direct Russian military command. This highlights an internal divide between supporters of Putin and Prigozhin and a more significant question to the leadership of Russia.

Third, the impact of the Wagner revolt on Russia's war in Ukraine. For Russia to fight in Ukraine, a new mobilization was launched to recruit more. The recruits and not-so-fully trained soldiers led to the gap between operations and command. Although there was not much awareness or objection against Russia on mobilization, Russia slowed down the recruitment to prevent domestic dissent. On the other hand, the Wagner was allowed to recruit prisoners across Russia and command better despite the shortage of equipment. Human resource is the strength of any war; Russia's operation in Ukraine will have consequences of Prigozhin leaving for Belarus. Ukraine will benefit from the recent development. The immediate impact will be on the Wagner units deployed inside Ukraine, which may pause their operations or stop fighting for Russia. The damage caused to the M4 highway, and Rostov-on-Don is crucial to Russia's offensive in southern Ukraine and can help Ukraine gain in its counter-offensive. 

Fourth, Putin's reputation. As stated by Putin, the motive of the Ukraine invasion was to bring back USSR or reinstall Russia as a geopolitical power, but the fallouts of the war have been nothing but a backfire. From Finland joining NATO to minor incursions into Russia, the Wagner group's revolt should question Putin's reputation within Russia.


War in Ukraine: Day 486 & 487
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 24 June, Ukraine's air defence reported on a missile strike in Kyiv and Kharkiv. According to the report, 20 such missiles were destroyed in the airspace in Kyiv. Apart from the two cities, northern Sumy and Poltava and Dnipro were also subject to missile attacks.  

On 24 June, Ukraine reported on the meeting held in Denmark to discuss its peace formula. According to an Agence France Presse spokesperson, the meeting aimed at a "lasting peace" for Ukraine. During the meeting, Ukraine was reported to have stressed the US to motivate Brazil, India, and South Africa to attend.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 24 June, the Wagner group marched (calling it "March for Justice") towards Moscow after claiming to have captured Rostov-on-Don. They accused the Russian army of attacking them.

During 24-25 June, in response to the Wagner's revolt, Russia implemented "anti-terror" measures by keeping combat-ready and imposed travel restrictions to protect civilians. The Wagner group was reported to have seized Rostov's military headquarters and exited through the Voronezh area upon the deal signed in the mediation of Belarus. The Voronezh governor said regular activities resumed after the Wagner troop's exit. Later, the Foreign Ministry of Russia reported on China's interest in standing for Russia in case of a revolt by the Wagner group.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe

On 24 June, Germany announced sending Ukraine 45 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks by the end of 2023. According to the plan, 15 will be delivered by Germany and 30 with the support of the US. 

On 25 June, on the Wagner revolt, US spokesperson Antony Blinken stated that the tension revealed the "cracks in the Russian façade." He said: "It may be that Putin didn't want to debase himself to the level of negotiating directly with Prigozhin." On the same day, Deutsche Welle reported on the death of 13 to 20 Russian soldiers in the Wagner revolt destruction of six helicopters by the Wagner fighters.

On 25 June, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda warned over the presence of the Wagner group in Belarus. He said that the ambiguity over the plans of the Wagner group in Belarus necessitates the strengthening of the eastern European borders.

References 
Olha Hlushchenko, "NATO has to strengthen its eastern borders if Belarus accepts Prigozhin – Lithuanian President," pravda.com.ua, 26 June 2023
"Key moments of aborted Wagner revolt in Russia," RT, 25 June 2023
"Ukraine updates: Focus moves to Russia amid Wagner rebellion," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2023
"Wagner chief 'humiliated' Putin, Ukraine says," Deutsche Welle, 25 June 2023
"Wagner group withdraws from Russian positions after ending rebellion," France 24, 25 June 2023
John Ismay, "Blinken Says Wagner Rebellion Shows the Cracks in Putin's Power," The New York Times, 25 June 2023
Nectar Gan, "China throws support behind 'strategic partner' Russia after Wagner insurrection challenges Putin," CNN, 26 June 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

FRANCE 
President Emmanuel Macron to visit Marseille 
On 26 June, Les Echos reported that President Emmanuel Macron would be on a three-day trip to Marseille to look into the Marseille plan launched in September 2021. The visit marks the end of self-imposed "hundred days" after the pension reforms protests. During his visit, the President will discuss education, transport, housing, security, and culture. (Gregoire Poussielgue, "Macron in Marseille to close his "hundred days" period," Les Echos, 25 June 2023)

GREECE
New Democracy party wins in the second round of elections
On 25 June, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's New Democracy party (ND) won a second victory in the Parliamentary election, with 40.5 per cent. The election consisted of 9.8 million, with 32 political parties represented. After the triumph, Mitsotakis announced: "The people have given us a safe majority. Major reforms will proceed rapidly." Earlier in the May elections, the party missed by five seats in forming a single majority party in Parliament. Mitsotakis's confidence over the bonus votes available in the second round called for another election. The Syrian party, considered the far-left received only 18 per cent vote, followed by PASOK with 13 per cent, KKE with seven per cent and the Spartans party received five per cent. The Syrian left party leader stated: "We have suffered a heavy electoral defeat." Mitsotakis promised a strong economy and combat unemployment rates under his leadership. Despite the election held during the shipwreck tragedy, the pre-election poll had predicted a victory for the New Democracy Party. Adding to it, Mitsotakis has promised a robust increase in wages. ("Greece election: Conservatives claim resounding victory," Deutsche Welle, 26 June 2023)

LATVIA
Strengthens eastern border control amidst Russian paramilitary rebellion
On 24 June, Latvia's Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš (New Unity) tweeted that due to the rebellion by the Russian paramilitary Wagner group, stricter control has been implemented along the eastern border. The Latvian government, along with relevant authorities and services, are closely monitoring the situation in Russia. Border control has been reinforced to ensure national security, and citizens are strongly advised against travelling to Russia or Belarus. Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs (New Unity) also emphasized the importance of avoiding travel to Russia and urged those already there to leave. Internal Affairs Minister Māris Kučinskis requested increased border controls in coordination with the State Border Guard chief. The State Border Guard, along with Frontex and other Latvian services, are working intensively to conduct thorough inspections. If necessary, support from the National Armed Forces (NBS) will be sought, as Defence Minister Ināra Mūrniece (National Alliance) stated. ("Latvia's eastern border under enhanced control," eng.lsm.iv, 24 June 2023) 

NORWAY
Not to close the border with Russia
On 25 June, NewsinEnglish.no reported on Norwegian officials' statement that they do not plan to close the border with Russia in the far north, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the military conflict within Russia. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre emphasized that the situation remains serious and unclear. Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt described the conflict as dangerous and urged Norwegians in Russia to leave. He emphasized that there is also uncertainty regarding an alleged agreement made by the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to end the rebellion in exchange for amnesty in Belarus. ("Norway keeps border to Russia open," NewsinEnglish.no, 25 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Finland's Sato Oyj downgraded amid Swedish real estate crisis and forest fire warnings 
On 25 June, Helsinki Times reported that a Finnish real estate company, Sato Oyj, has been downgraded to junk status by Moody's Investors Service due to Sweden's real estate crisis. This downgrade is part of a larger trend affecting the Nordic region. Sato Oyj, which owns 25,000 apartments in Finland, is now among several companies facing financing difficulties. Moody's downgraded Sato's rating from investment grade to high-yield status, citing concerns about its interest coverage ratio, financing challenges, and the weakening position of its majority owner, Fastighets AB Balder. Meanwhile, forest fire warnings have been issued across Northern Europe, including Finland, due to dry conditions and rising temperatures. The lack of experience in dealing with droughts makes these countries vulnerable. ("Finland hit by Sweden real estates woes, wildfire warnings and digital detox island: Finland in the world press," Helsinki Times, 25 June 2023) 

EU alert to border countries after the Wagner threat
On 24 June, the EU countries bordering Russia alerted their border security after the Wagner group threatened to enter Moscow. Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused Kremlin soldiers of the death of 1000 Wagner Group soldiers, while Putin called the move "treason". Estonia and Latvia have stepped up their border security, and Latvia has suspended visa applications and entry from Russia. Despite no direct threat, the EU countries have strengthened border security. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland have declared close cooperation over the incident. Further, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister stated: "The goal, as ever, is victory and justice for Ukraine. The time is now." (Victor Jack, "EU countries bordering Russia on alert after mutiny against Moscow,Politico, 24 June 2023)

CLIMATE 
Swiss cities take on heat islands 
On 25 June, Swissinfo.ch reported that cities in Switzerland were taking measures to tackle heat islands. Climate change is expected to intensify the situation. A commune guide for the canton of Fribourg stated: "Heat islands concern all communes, whether urban, semi-urban, rural or pre-Alpine…This phenomenon is set to increase dramatically over the coming decades, and we need to start preparing for it today." Swiss authorities have started implementing projects such as increasing vegetation cover, mapping vulnerable zones, installing micro-oases, misting systems, and replacing bitumen with grass and gravel surfaces in an effort to minimize the heat. ("Climate change: Swiss cities combat heat islands," Swissinfo.ch, 25 June 2023)

ECONOMY
ECB interest hikes and the inflation
On 24 June, Deutsche Welle reported on the Vice President of ECB, Luis de Guindos statement that recent interest rate hikes had impacted the economy and lowered inflation. ECB expects an inflation fall of 5.4 per cent, three per cent and two per cent in the upcoming consecutive years. During an interview, de Guindos stated that the ECB had raised the rates by 400 bases and would hold at around 2 per cent to stabilize. Energy and food prices have risen extensively during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The banks have decided to prioritize lowering inflation to improve their economy. The Baltic states have experienced massive inflation hikes as the marked regions are exposed to the Ukraine conflict. De Guindos reminded of government spending and borrowings lender's necessity to increase deposit rates instead, not just on loans to alleviate and stabilize the economy. ("ECB says 'finishing line in sight' on inflation, interest," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2023)

ENERGY
Germany to support Georgia's Hydrogen Project
On 25 June, Deutsche Welle reported on the EU's desire to import green electricity to Georgia and make the country less independent of Russia. Currently, 70 per cent of the country's electricity is nestled between Russia, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Georgian electricity producer has expected to increase the current 4,500 MW to 10,000 MW by 2023. Additional construction projects are new wind farms and photovoltaics etc. The German Engineering Firm has proposed transporting Caucasian green electricity via Turkey, as the electricity prices are triple and can fetch a vast windfall for Georgia. The GES board member Zviad stated: "Without such an open electricity market, no foreign investor will come." Additionally, Germany has decided to support the Georgian hydrogen project with a backup of EUR 1.5 million. (Oliver Ristau, "Georgia: A source of green energy for Europe?," Deutsche Welle, 25 June 2023)

ENVIRONMENT 
Buy-out scheme to tackle pollution creates tensions in the Netherlands
On 25 June, The Guardian reported that Netherlands farmers are at a crossroads with the government over a new buyout scheme to reduce nitrogen-based pollution. The scheme was introduced after reports showed that nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide emissions from transports and ammonia from farming exceeded the EU threshold. A 2020 commission report proposed asking 500-600 livestock farmers to shut down their businesses within a year. 3000 "peak polluter" livestock farmers are offered EURO 975 million for voluntary buy-outs. The scheme, which begins on 3 July, has been received well by environmentalists. (Senay Boztas, "Farmers on frontline as Dutch divided by war on nitrogen pollution," The Guardian, 25 June 2023) 

MIGRATION
Frontex has considered a temporary suspension of the Mediterranean tragedy
On 24 June, Politico reported that the EU Border and Coast Guard has considered suspending temporarily on Greece's activities. Tensions widened between the EU agency and Athens over the role of dealing with the tragedy. Various critics have blamed the Greek authorities for the delay, which has caused the death of numerous lives. On the contrary, Greek authorities have denied the accusations. Frontex has reportedly initiated the requirement of potential human rights violation recordings. (Varg Folkman, "Frontex consider suspending activities in Greece: Report," Politico, 24 June 2023)

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Meta to conduct "stress test" of new EU content rules
On 23 June, following a meeting with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton reported that Meta had agreed to "stress test" the new EU digital rules in July. The EU's Digital Services Act will come into effect from August. Major tech companies will have to comply with the new rules to tackle online hate speech, disinformation, and illegal content. (Varg Folkman, "Meta agrees to July' stress test' on new EU content rules," Politico, 24 June 2023) 

INTERNATIONAL 
China sides with Russia on Wagner issue
On 26 June, The Guardian reported that China called the Wagner rebellion Russia's "internal affairs." On 24 June, a Chinese-state-owned newspaper stated that the reports around the internal divide in Russia were an "illusion" being propagated by Western media to strike at Russia's unity. China added, "As a friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner in the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity." On 25 June, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko held discussions in Beijing, although the date and purpose of his arrival were unclear. ("China downplays Wagner rebellion as Russia's 'internal affairs'," The Guardian, 26 June 2023)


24 June 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #551

War in Ukraine: Day 485

Roscosmos announces completion of new engine for Soyuz-5 rockets; Yevgeny Prigozhin accusing Russian military; EU court ruled on Hungary for infringing migrant rights

Photo : Sergei Savostianov/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 485
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 23 June, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi met Russia's Rosatom Director to discuss the existing Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant scenario. There is growing concern about radiation since the war began. In response to the meeting Rosatom in a statement said: "We expect concrete steps from the IAEA aimed at preventing strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, both on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and on adjacent territory and critical infrastructure facilities."

On 23 June, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia had created a special group to seal the information of the number of deaths after the dam breach. He said: "The Russian evil has formed special groups there to remove and, obviously, hide the victims' bodies." From the dam floods, Ukraine reported 21 to have died, while Russia reported 46.

On 23 June, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister reported that Ukraine had stopped Russia from forwarding towards Kupyansk and Lyman in the eastern Ukraine. According to the minister 13 Russian cruise missiles were destroyed which were predicted to be aimed at Ukraine's military field in the western Khmelnitskyi.

The Moscow View
On 23 June, Wagner group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin released a post on Telegram, accusing Russian military for launching missile strikes at the group's camps. Although the numbers of causalities were not disclosed, mass numbers of forces are reported to have died. On the ground situation, Prigozhin added that Russia was being pushed back by Ukraine forces in the eastern and southern Ukraine, resulting in concentration in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The Russia's defence ministry denied the claims, stating it as only a provocation. Russian Joint Forces General asked the Wagner group to stop its "rebellion." On the same Russia's Federal Security Service announced the launch of an investigation on Prigozhin for "calling for an armed rebellion."

On 23 June, Russia rejected France's President Emmanuel Macron comment on Russia's "destabilizing role" in Africa. Earlier Macron stated that Russia through deployment of private militias had committed "abuses" on civilians. In response, Russia's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "Russia is developing friendly, constructive relations based on mutual respect and concern for each other's problems."

On 23 June, Russia's foreign ministry in response to the 11th package of sanctions imposed by the EU, announced to impose ban on more government officers, diplomats and people, including members of the European Parliament.

References
"Ukraine's Zelenskiy: Russia is hiding bodies of victims of dam breach," Reuters, 23 June 2023
Rafael MarianoGrossi,” Twitter, 23 June 2023
"Russia urges IAEA to ensure Ukraine does not shell Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant," alarabiya, 23 June 2023
"Top Russian general sends message to 'mutinous' Wagner PMC," RT, 23 June 2023
"Kremlin rejects Macron charges that it is 'destabilizing' Africa," Aljazeera, 23 June 2023
"Ukraine updates: IAEA in Russia to ease Zaporizhzhia fears," Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Prerana P

FINLAND
An elevating case of wildfires can damage the property
On 23 June, Helsinki Times reported the increased risk of home damages, due to forest fire. Markus Uimonen, the Director of Property and Operation Compensation Services Pohjola Insurances, has stated his concern on the temperature rise, drought and wind play, which has caused the significant rise of wildfires. He described throwing cigarettes into the forest-fire warning area and disposable grills as human carelessness. Additionally, he advised that midsummer bonfires should include essential water, fire extinguisher and clean wood. He urged safety measures to be exercised to protect from the impact of wildfires. ("Climate change increases the risk of forest fires- Damage to homes may increase," Helsinki Times, 23 June 2023)

NORTHERN IRELAND
Windsor Framework committee meets to check progress
On 23 June, BBC reported that a specialized committee met in Brussels to check the progress made so far in the Windsor Framework. The Framework that was created in February aims to alleviate post-Brexit trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This committee comprises of senior officials from the UK and EU. They said that adopting a legislation in the areas of agriculture, medicines, tariff rate quotas, and customs by the EU was a welcome move. Under the Windsor Framework, trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ease through forming a trusted trader scheme and a system of red and green lanes at Northern Ireland ports. The red and green lane system is slated to begin operations from October. (John Campbell, "Windsor Framework: NI Brexit deal committee meet in Brussels," BBC, 23 June 2023)

RUSSIA 
Friction between military and Wagner chief threatens armed conflict within Russia
On 23 June, Russian government buildings and transport facilities were secured after reports of the Wagner Group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, calling for an armed attack on the Russian military. This was in response to alleged strikes on Wagner's troops by missiles from the military. The defence ministry has denied the occurrence of any such attacks. The Kremlin reported that Prigozhin is being probed for mutiny and that Putin has been briefed about the situation. Meanwhile, the USA is also monitoring the rapidly developing situation. Russia has launched "Operation Fortress" in the city of Rostov-on-Don for personnel to be in "full readiness." Moscow has also activated the operation, ramping up security measures. The governor of Rostov-on-Don requested residents to stay indoors and exercise calm as reports emerged of armed troops in uniform surrounding a government building. Meanwhile, anti-Kremlin figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky called on Russians to lend their support to the Wagner chief to take down the leadership. ("Russia tightens security as Wagner chief accused of mutiny," BBC, 24 June 2023) 

SWITZERLAND
The Swiss cities experienced a slight slip in their Livability index
On 22 June, Swissinfo reported the 2023 Global Livability Index, published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The report stated that the Swiss cities Zurich and Geneva have batched in the top 10 with third and sixth spots, respectively, but have slightly fallen in the 2023 ranking. Vienna has remained in its top spot, while the Austrian capital has fallen somewhat due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In the 2023 index, the country has expanded over 173 cities regarding its stability, healthcare, environment, infrastructure etc. ("Swiss cities slip down 'most-liveable-cities' ranking," Swissinfo, 22 June 2023)

CLIMATE
The world leaders have agreed to uplift the poorer countries from its debt crisis
On 23 June, The Guardian reported on the debt crisis affecting the poorer countries, while the global finance summit's measures failed to deliver debt forgiveness plan. The French President had urged for global taxes on aviation, shipping to fund climate action. World Bank has expressed their concern on establishing a planet tackling issues like food insecurity, pandemics, fragility, poverty etc. Over 52 countries are in debt distress rising the interest rates. The World Bank has also declared to pause the debt repayments for countries who are struggling with climate disaster and begin with new loans. Countries like France, Japan and UK has pledged their proportions of SDR for poorer countries which scores to around USD 80 billion. The summit concluded with an agreement to transform the world's approach and to uplift the poorer countries. (Fiona Harvey, "Paris climate finance summit fails to deliver debt forgiveness plan," The Guardian, 23 June 2023)

MIGRATION
Greece migrant boat had 350 Pakistanis 
On 22 June, BBC reported that at least 227 migrants were rescued from the Canary Islands. The news comes a day after the sinking of a migrant boat that resulted in more than 30 deaths. Angel Victor Torres, leader of the Canary Islands region, called the accident a "tragedy" and urged the EU to create a migration policy. On 14 June, a boat carrying hundreds of migrants had capsized off the Greek coast in a tragedy described as one of the worst disasters in the Mediterranean this year. Egyptians, Syrians, and Pakistanis are among the migrants that are feared dead. Pakistan's Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah informed that at least 350 Pakistanis were on the boat. Presently, official data records the survival of 12 Pakistanis. ("Hundreds of migrants rescued off Canary Islands," BBC, 23 June 2023; "Greece boat disaster: 350 Pakistanis were on board, minister says," BBC, 23 June 2023)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Roscosmos announces completion of new engine for Soyuz-5 rockets
On 23 June, Sputnik reported on the successful production of the RD-171MV liquid rocket engine by the scientific production association Energomash for Roscosmos, Russia's space firm. The engine will be used for test flights of the new Soyuz-5 carrier rocket which will be used to aid in the launching of unmanned spacecraft into near-earth orbits. Roscosmos hassaid that the new engine will be "the most powerful in the world." ("Space Advancement: Russia Wraps Up New Engine for Soyuz-5 Rocket," Sputnik, 23 June 2023)

Twitter ready to comply with new EU laws
On 23 June, The Guardian reported that the new EU laws on fake news would be followed by Twitter. Twitter's agreement to comply comes after a team from the European Commission conducted a stress test at the company's headquarters on 22 June. Thiery Breton, the enforcement commissioner of the new Digital Services Act praised Twitter for voluntarily agreeing to the mock testing, stating: "Twitter is taking the exercise seriously and has identified the key areas on which it needs to focus to comply with the DSA." The new laws, set to come into effect on 25 August, are aimed at combating misinformation, cyberbullying, and fake news on the internet. (Lisa O'Carroll, "Twitter agrees to comply with tough EU disinformation laws," The Guardian, 23 June 2023)

Finland introduces world's first phone-free zone
On 22 June, Euronews reported on world's first digital detox tourist island, Ulko-Tammio, located off the coast of Hamina town in Finland. Although the island has a functioning mobile network, the travellers are recommended to disconnect from social media during the visit. The island is uninhabited by people, and the visitors can stay in tents and cabins. Ulko-Tammio consists of hiking trails, bird-watching towers, water taxis and a wide range of flora and fauna diversity. The 2022 study report stated that, a week's break from social media had improved well-being and sleep cycle. A 2019 University of East Anglia study also reported that the digital detox can elevate mental health. (Charlotte Elton, "Phone-free zone: Finland introduces world's first digital detox tourist island," Euronews, 22 June 2023)

GENDER
Since 2012, gender pension pay has remained the same
On 22 June, the Swiss Life insurance company published the issue of lower pensions received by retired Swiss women. The pension was stated to be less than one-third (CHF 36,000) when compared to men (CHF 55,000). The gender pay gap in Switzerland has affected women, which score around 10-20 per cent less than men. The difference was declared the greatest for the widows. With about 30% of the gender pension gap, the country has tumbled down the lane of global equality ranking. ("Gender pension gap: Swiss women receive a third less than men," Swissinfo, 23 June 2023)

ENERGY
Italy's Eni acquires oil and gas company Neptune
On 23 June, The Guardian reported that Italy's Eni is going to take over the oil and gas company Neptune Energy in a USD 5 billion deal. Eni's Norwegian subsidiary Var Energy acquire Neptune's Norwegian business in a USD 2.3 billion deal. Neptune is involved in operating oil and gas fields across Norway, Germany, Algeria, the Netherlands, Indonesia, and the UK. The deal is expected to help Eni achieve its goal of reaching net zero by 2030. (Jillian Ambrose, "Eni to buy oil and gas company Neptune Energy in $5bn deal," The Guardian, 23 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Germany passes law to ease migrant entry 
On 23 June, BBC reported on the passing of a new law in Germany that will enable migrant workers from outside the EU easier access to enter the country. A system to check age, skills, and qualifications will be instituted. Migrants will be given the opportunity to come with their spouses and parents. The move is seen as an effort to tackle the growing labour shortage issues and the risk this poses to the economy in the coming years. The easing of migration rules is one of the major agendas of the ruling SPD-Green-Liberal coalition. (Damien McGuinness, "Germany passes law to attract skilled migrant workers amid fierce debate," BBC, 23 June 2023)

France hosts global financing summit; inequality, climate change and global financing systems discussed
On 22 June, Deutsche Welle reported on the New Global Financing Pact summit that Paris will host for two days, beginning from 22 June. The event will focus on issues of poverty and climate change by restructuring the global financial system. Heads of state, international NGOs, and private sector representatives will be in attendance. French President Emmanuel Macron remarked in his opening statements: "No country should have to choose between reducing poverty and protecting the planet." He emphasized the need to increase public and private funding to eliminate inequality. The challenges faced by developing countries including climate change were highlighted by various speakers. ("Paris summit: Macron urges joint action on climate, poverty," Deutsche Welle, 22 June 2023)

EU court ruled on Hungary for infringing migrant rights
On 22 June, the EU court ruled on Hungary for flouting the bloc's law by forcing the asylum seekers to travel to the embassies in Ukraine and Serbia. After facing a heavy number of migrants of one million in 2015, the Hungary government, since 2020, has forced asylum seekers to get travel permit from Belgrade or Kyiv and further enter Hungary. The country has failed to fulfil its obligations. The EU blamed Hungary and its law for its disproportionate interference, and the commission will also decide on whether to amend, withdraw the legislation or charge fines against the country. ("EU's top court rules Hungary broke the law by forcing migrants to go abroad to start asylum process," Le Monde with AP,  22 June 2023)

Spanish investigation launched on the Moroccan boat rescue delay
On 23 June, The Guardian reported on an inflatable boat bound for the Canary Islands, had waited more than 12 hours for its rescue, which has ultimately lost at least 35 lives including a child. Two of the major migrations NGOs, Walking Borders and Alarm phone has blamed the Spanish and Moroccan authorities for their delay. The boat had carried over 60 people and the Moroccan and Spain had shared a search-and rescue operation. The Moroccan authorities arrived after 12 hours, which has led to more than 35 deaths and several of them mentioned to be missing. (Sam Jones, "Spanish investigation launched into fatal boat rescue delay," The Guardian, 23 June 2023)

The EU has invested over EUR 500 million to support Ukraine
On 23 June, the EU states has agreed to move forward with the proposed regulation in establishing the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP). The Russian war has exposed the European Defence equipment market and the EU member states have stepped forward to defend Ukraine's defence needs. The three-track approach aimed to deliver artillery ammunition, ground-to-ground equipment's for Ukraine. The project was coordinated by the European Defence Agency and has invested over EUR 500 million to the project. The EU has promised to provide re-filling stocks while supporting Ukraine. ("Boosting ammunition production in the EU defence industry: Council ready to negotiate with the European Parliament," European Council of the European Union, 23 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
EAC bothered by member Kenya signing trade deal with EU
On 23 June, BBC reported that the East African Community (EAC), a regional trading bloc, is unhappy over the recently concluded EU-Kenya trade agreement. Kenya is one of the seven-member strong EAC. Critics are of the opinion that the EAC should have been negotiating with the EU, rather than just Kenya. Supporters to Kenya's deal have pointed out that Kenya is the only EAC country categorized as "emerging" while the others are "least developed." This means apart from Kenyan products, all others continue to have access to the EU markets without the need for a deal. Therefore, it is vital for Kenya to have agreed to the current deal to safeguard their interests. (Waihiga Mwaura, "Kenya-EU trade deal: Why the East African Community was left out," BBC, 23 June 2023)

Switzerland congratulates Mozambique for its peace process
On 23 June, the Switzerland government congratulated the government and the people of Mozambique for successfully upbringing the disarmament and demobilization process. Switzerland has helped Mozambique achieve long-lasting peace and stability since the 2019 Maputo Peace Accord. Since 2019, over 5,221 ex-combatants have been demobilized, and 16 RENAMO rebel military bases have been closed. The Switzerland declared its continued support of humanitarian and development projects to the East African country. ("Switzerland welcomes 'milestone' in Mozambique peace process," Swissinfo, 23 June 2023)


23 June 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #550

War in Ukraine: Day 484

Greece elections: New Democracy set for a comfortable victory 

Photo : Louiza Vradi/Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 484
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 22 June, Ukrinform reported that the Chongar Bridge that connects Crimea with mainland Ukraine was struck, blocking the traffic. According to Ukrinform Crimean Governor Serhii Aksonov said on Telegram that no casualties were reported.  

On 22 June, according to president.gov.ua, Zelenkyy said: “Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.” On 20 June, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov told national television that the nuclear plant was additionally mined, including the cooling pond. He added that if Russian forces blow it up, it could lead to significant problems. On 22 June, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba remarked that the best way to prevent tragedies is to provide Kyiv with all the necessary ammunition to expel Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said that they are following the matter with great attention.

On 22 June, according to The Kyiv Independent, the Ukrainian forces made gains in the south and east directions and advanced up to one kilometre in Melitopol and Berdiansk. A spokesperson for Ukrainian Military Valeriy Shershen remarked that the towns of Avdiivka and Marinka witnessed intense fighting and Ukrainian forces have not lost their positions in these areas. According to Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar, Ukrainian forces slightly advanced near Lyman in northern Donetsk between the towns of Dibrova and Bilohirivka.

On 22 June, The Kyiv Independent reported on the overnight missile attacks in Ukraine by Russia. According to The Kyiv Independent, Russia sent three Kh-22 cruise missiles and four loitering munitions overnight. Ukrainian military reported downing three Shahid kamikaze drones over Odesa. The Air Force also reported that Russian forces missed their targets in Dnipropetrovsk, says The Kyiv Independent.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 22 June, RT News reported that IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi denied the Ukrainian government’s claim that the cooling pond of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is rigged with mines.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 22 June, Politico reported on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s comment that the upcoming NATO Summit must focus on strengthening Ukraine’s military power instead of starting the process for Kyiv to join NATO. He further added that EU and G7 countries would work parallelly to provide “effective and long-lasting security guarantees” for Ukraine. He said that Germany would continue to support Ukraine “for as long as is necessary” and would increase defence expenditure. According to Deutsche Welle, he said that German military and economic aid to Ukraine totalled EUR 16.8 billion which clearly shows that Germany stands firmly at Ukraine’s side.

References
Chongar Bridge traffic blocked - occupiers reports about strike,” Ukrinform, 22 June 2023
Alexander Khrebet, “Ukraine war latest: Zelensky warns of possible Russian terrorist attack at Zaporizhzhia plant; IAEA spots no new mines at site,” The Kyiv Independent, 23 June 2023
President of Ukraine: Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia NPP with radiation leakage, the world must act,” president.gov.ua, 22 June 2023
IAEA debunks Ukrainian claim about Europe’s largest nuclear plant,” RT News, 22 June 2023
Germany: Scholz hails 'more active' defense role,” Deutsche Welle, 22 June 2023
Hans Von Der Burchard, “Scholz to NATO: Focus on boosting Ukraine’s military power, not membership,” Politico.eu, 22 June 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran

GERMANY 
Rail union in Germany calls for strikes 
On 22 June, Germany’s EVG Rail workers union said that they were planning to hold strikes after the failure of wage talks with German rail operator Deutsche Bahn. On 21 June, the EVG had rejected the rail operator’s proposed offer for a salary hike of up to 12 per cent on the premise that it was too low, too late and its term of 27 months was too long. Deutsche Bahn responded, calling the strikes “absolutely unnecessary” and that the two sides had been “very close to a deal.” (“Germany's EVG rail union plans strikes after wage talks collapse,” Reuters, 22 June 2023)

GREECE
Greece elections: New Democracy set for a comfortable victory 
On 23 June, Politico reported that Greece’s New Democracy party is heading for a victory in the elections that will be held on 25 June. With this, the party leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis will return as Prime Minister. Mitsotakis has pledged to cut back the public sector and bring reforms in the health and education sectors. Additionally, the pro-investor outlook of his party has raked up support in a country that faced a debt crisis, followed by the negative impact of the pandemic. Wolfango Piccoli, the co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo, raised the question of a weakening opposition, stating: “The opposition is extremely weak, and it will take a very long time to recover. The Prime Minister will have to pay attention to this aspect, because we have seen in other countries that a weak opposition could become a problem for the government, for the quality of policymaking for accountability and transparency.”  (Nektaria Stamouli, “Greek election looks set to strengthen Mitsotakis’ power,” Politico, 23 June 2023)

TURKEY 
Interest rate raised
On 22 June, Turkey’s central bank announced an increase of 6.5 per cent to the interest rate, thereby raising the interest rate for commercial lenders from 8.5 per cent to 15 per cent. Turkey has increased its rate for the first time since March 2021 in an effort to combat inflation.. The central bank statement said: “Monetary tightening will be further strengthened as much as needed in a timely and gradual manner until a significant improvement in the inflation outlook is achieved.” The move is being seen as a return to conventional economic policies under the new government led by Erdogan. (“Turkey's central bank hikes interest rates sharply,” Deutsche Welle, 22 June 2023) 

MIGRATION 
Migrant boat capsizes near Canaray Islands in the Atlantic Ocean
On 22 June, BBC reported that the sinking of a boat off the Canary Islands may have resulted in the death of more than 30 migrants. Reuters cited Spanish state news agency EFE which reported that on 20 June, a Spanish rescue service ship called the Guardamar Caliope had only been an hour away from the migrant boat. However, they only sent a patrol boat to the area on the morning of 21 June. (Oliver Slow, “At least 30 migrants feared dead in Canary Islands disaster,” BBC, 22 June 2023)

ECONOMY 
New digital law set to make big tech firms comply to cyber rules
On 22 June, Europe's Digital Commissioner Thierry Breton met Elon Musk and Twitter’s new CEO Linda Yaccarino to conduct a “stress test” on Twitter’s services to show how the firm will work under the new Digital Services Act (DSA). Breton is on a two-day visit to the US to remind major tech firms that the EU’s DSA will come into effect in late August. Once in effect, the law will require major tech firms to take action against online hate speech, illegal content, cyberbullying and disinformation. On 23 June, Breton is expected to meet Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of ChatGPT’s OpenAI Sam Altman and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang to pitch a new initiative called the AI Pact which is a part of the proposed EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, an upcoming law that deals with transparency, security and human oversight for AI tools. (Clothilde Goujard, Gian Volpicelli, “Europe’s digital ‘enforcer’ takes EU tech rulebook to Silicon Valley,” Politico, 22 June 2023) 

REGIONAL 
EU talks fail to break Kosovo-Serbia tensions 
On 22 June, the EU hosted leaders from Serbia and Kosovo for talks to defuse the border tensions that have increased fears of direct conflict. The two leaders held separate talks with EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borell but refused to meet each other. There were no results to the meeting as Borell stated that the two sides have “different interpretations of the causes and also the facts, consequences, and solutions.” Serbian troops have already been stationed at the border on the highest alert. A series of clashes have been seen between Kosovo Serbs on one side and Kosovo police and NATO peacekeepers on the other. However, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg promised that the peacekeepers “will continue to act impartially.” (Lorne Cook, “No breakthrough after EU summons Kosovo and Serbia leaders for emergency talks,” AP News, 22 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
France’s backing of Saudi Arabia raises concerns 
On 22 June, Politico reported that France has endorsed Saudi Arabia as the host for the 2030 World Expo in a move that has sparked anger across Europe. Italy, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Ukraine had placed the bid to host the event. The French President’s support for Saudi Arabia over Italy has concerned human rights activists and other EU countries. He is thought to be backing Saudi Arabia in hopes of pursuing trade and diplomatic ties with them. In response, Ahmed Benchemsi from Human Rights Watch said: “The Expo 2030 bid is just part of a string of huge dollar spending activity that Saudi Arabia has been engaging in for the past years to distract the attention of the world from the gruesome human rights violations.” (Giorgio Leali, “Riyadh not Rome: Anger rises over Macron’s backing for Saudi World Expo bid, Politico, 22 June 2023) 


22 June 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #549

War in Ukraine: Day 483

EU approves 11th package of sanctions against Russia

Photo : EPA-EFE/ANDY RAIN/POOL


War in Ukraine: Day 483
By Rishika Yadav and Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 20 June, the Ukrainian government portal reported on the discussions over the joint implementation of a community-based approach to Ukraine's recovery ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kubrakov, and UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine, Denise Brown, discussed the plan, which includes establishing a Community Recovery Fund to support long-term recovery and community resilience, focusing on housing restoration, critical infrastructure, and social infrastructure, humanitarian demining, and local business support. The aim is to mobilize USD 300 million over five years, starting with an initial seed funding of USD 50 million. Kubrakov emphasized the importance of continuing the decentralization reform and providing institutional, financial, and advisory support to strengthen communities.

On 21 June, the Kyiv Post reported on the interview of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with the BBC. Zelensky admited that progress on the battlefield against Russia has been slower than desired, emphasizing the importance of human lives over hasty outcomes. The counter-offensive has retaken eight villages, but the presence of extensive Russian-laid landmines across a vast territory hampers further advancements. Zelensky stated that Ukraine will proceed on the battlefield according to its own judgment, despite external pressures to expedite. While seeking security guarantees from NATO, Zelensky affirmed Ukraine's goal of joining the defensive alliance. He rejected the idea of accepting a frozen conflict, expressing concerns about Russia and its reported relocation of tactical nuclear weapons.

On 21 June, the Ukrainian President’s press service reported about Zelensky address to the Ukrainian people on the 483rd day of the war. In the address Zelensky highlighted the fierce battles against Russian invaders in various front sectors. He expressed gratitude for the progress made in destroying Russia and acknowledged the firm defence in the East. Zelensky also mentioned the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, appreciating the financial support packages from the UK, the US, and the EU. He emphasized the importance of international business support for Ukraine's transformation and the need for EU sanctions to limit Russia's profits. Zelensky welcomed new ambassadors and expressed confidence in Ukraine's victory and the world's belief in the Ukrainian people.

On 21 June, Ukrinform reported on a United News Telethon. During the telethon, the head of Ukrainian Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, expressed concerns about the potential threat at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Budanov stated that the plant, which is under temporary control of Russian-backed forces, has been mined, particularly the cooler. If the cooler is disabled by an explosion, significant problems could arise. He emphasized that this situation should not be linked to US President Joe Biden's recent statement on the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 June, RT News reported on the statement by the Russian Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov. He stated that Russia saw no reason to extend the agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, as the deal has not been fulfilled. The UN and Turkey mediated agreement, signed in July 2022, aims to ensure the safe shipment of Ukrainian grain while removing obstacles to Russian food and fertilizer exports imposed by the west due to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Despite previous extensions, Peskov noted that the West has not fulfilled its promises, leading Russia to consider ending the deal on July 18.

On 21 June, RT News reported on the statement made by Russian Governor of Moscow Oblast, Andrey Vorobyov. He confirmed that the Russian military had shot down two unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) near military warehouses in Kalinetz, southwest of Moscow. No injuries or damage were reported in the incident. Local authorities have discovered drone fragments, and law enforcement agencies are investigating the matter. TASS news agency reports that three drones were neutralized using electronic warfare measures near the home base of the Russian Taman Motor Rifle division.

On 21 June, TASS reported on the interview with the Russian CEO of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), Aleksey Rakhmanov. According to Rakhmanov, two nuclear-powered submarines, the emperor Alexander III (Borey-A-class) and the Krasnoyarsk (Project 885M or Yasen-M), will be commissioned into the Russian Navy later this year. The submarines are being constructed by the Sevmash shipyard, a subsidiary of USC. Additionally, the Admiralty Shipyard will deliver three diesel-electric submarines of the Lada and Varshavyanka classes. The information is shared ahead of the upcoming International Maritime Defence Show (IMDS-2023) in Kronstadt, Russia.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 21 June, the UK Ministry of Defence updated on the War in Ukraine. Commenting on the intense ongoing fighting in Southern Ukraine, it said that Russia continues to maintain control of Crimea as its top priority. According to the update, Russia has been taking significant efforts to build defensive lines deep in rear areas, especially towards approaches to Crimea. 

On 21 June, European Pravda reported on the approval of the 11th package of sanctions against Russia after Greece and Hungary dropped their objections. The Swedish Presidency of the Council of EU tweeted that the package would include measures aimed at countering sanctions circumvention and individual listings. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the “political agreement” and tweeted that this move would be another blow to Putin’s war machine. According to Reuters, the new sanctions package would forbid transit through Russia an expanded list of goods and technology which might be aiding Moscow’s military and security. It would also include restrictions on the sale of dual-use goods and technology to third-world countries that might sell it to Russia, says Reuters. The sanctions further would extend the suspension of EU broadcasting licences of five Russian state-controlled media, and ban ships that are engaged in ship-to-ship transfers’ access to EU ports if the cargo is suspected of Russian origin. It further added another 71 people and 33 entities to those banned from the EU.

On 21 June, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London commented on providing humanitarian assistance and funding for reconstruction to Ukraine. She said that Germany would respond to Putin with a “reconstruction offensive.” In the short term, Germany would provide an enormous amount of new humanitarian assistance to those worst hit by destruction, flooding and displacement. In the long term, it would help lay the groundwork to boost the Ukrainian economy fit for the future via the accession process. She also added that private sector investment is crucial for the future and the German government would continue to support them.

On 21 June, according to The Washington Post, the US is planning to provide an additional USD 1.3 billion to support rebuilding Ukraine, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London.

On 21 June, according to GOV.UK, the UK government set out a financial package that would unlock USD 3 billion worth of World Bank loans to boost Kyiv’s economic stability and support public services. The UK is hosting the Ukraine Recovery Conference between 21 to 22 June. Major business conglomerates, international corporations and retail chains have signed up to the Ukraine Business Compact to encourage trade, investment and responsible business practices in Ukraine to rebuild and transform its economy. Sunak would also launch the London Conference Framework for War Risk Insurance at the summit backed by G7 countries. He would also announce up to GBP 250 million for British International Investment (BII) to fund life-saving projects, reform programmes and energy projects in Ukraine.

References
Oleksandr Kubrakov: Ukraine and the UN will create a Community Recovery Fund,” kmu.gov.ua, 20 June 2023
Zelensky Acknowledges Slow Progress – Says it’s NOT a Movie,” The Kyiv Post, 21 June 2023
It is our state that global hopes are focused on, and our people will justify them: Ukraine will win – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 21 June 2023
When we build Ukraine, we will build freedom – online speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London,” president.gov.ua, 21 June 2023
Budanov: Russians mine cooler at ZNPP,” Ukrinform, 21 June 2023
No grounds to extend grain deal – Kremlin,” RT news, 21 June 2023
Two drones downed in Moscow Region – governor,” RT news, 21 June 2023
Alexander III, Krasnoyarsk nuclear subs to join Russian Navy this year — official,” TASS, 21 June 2023
EU approves Eleventh Package of Sanctions against Russia,” European Pravda, 21 June 2023
Jan Strupczewski, “EU approves 11th sanctions package against Russia over Ukraine,” Reuters, 21 June 2023
Foreign Minister Baerbock ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London,” Federal Foreign Office, 21 June 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 21 June 2023,” Twitter, 21 June 2023
John Hudson, Ellen Francis, Andrew Jeong, Robyn Dixon and Eve Sampson, “ Ukraine live briefing: U.S. pledges $1.3B more in aid at war recovery conference in London,” The Washinton Post, 21 June 2023
Global businesses pledge to back Ukraine's recovery as PM sets out major financial package,” GOV.UK, 21 June 2023
Statement attributed to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General - on the Black Sea Initiative,” un.org, 20 June 2023


In Brief
By Rishika Yadav and Sreeja JS

ESTONIA
Commander General of NATO Joint Force Command Brunssum visits Estonia
On 21 June, Commander General Guglielmo Luigi Miglietta visited Estonia. He met with the Ministry of Defence’s Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm and discussed the objectives of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, enhancing regional security, and the recent developments in the Estonian Defence Forces. Salm remarked that the summit’s vital goal is to demonstrate that the alliance had permanently transitioned into an enhanced defence posture. He also added that it is necessary to confirm NATO regional defence plans to collectively start practicing and implementing defence activities. The NATO Joint Force Command Brunssum is headquartered in the Netherlands and it coordinates the alliance’s operations in Northern Europe. (“NATO Joint Force Command Brunsumm Commander visits Estonia,” ERR News, 21 June 2023)

FRANCE
Government outlaws SLT for protesting against agro-industry reservoirs
On 20 June, according to France 24, the government issued a decree to outlaw Uprisings of the Earth (SLT). It accused SLT of indulging in violence while protesting against an irrigation reservoir near Sainte-Soline in Western France that witnessed brutal clashes between protesters and the police. SLT condemned the decree and called for protests across various cities in France. It is a part of a new wave of radical climate activist groups including the Extinction Rebellion calling for direction against the insufficient efforts to combat climate change and global warming, says France 24. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin commented that SLT under the pretense of defending environment preservation encourages sabotage and property damage, including violence. (“France outlaws climate activist group involved in protest against agro industry reservoirs,” France 24, 21 June 2023)

Tourism Minister outlines new plan to regulate overflow of tourists
On 18 June, Tourism Minister Olivia Gregorie unveiled a new plan to regulate the overflow of tourists across France’s most popular sites and laid out a strategy to combat “over-tourism.” She said that France needs to properly manage the peak-season influxes that threaten “the environment, the quality of life for locals and the experiences for its visitors.” According to France 24, the government will constitute an industry monitoring group to identify at-risk sites and make strategies to encourage off-season visits. Gregorie said that it is up to the government to work hand-in-hand with the regional offices and tourist sites to implement measures to manage the crowds. She suggested several measures such as enlisting social media influencers to spread the word on the risks of over-tourism. (“France lays out strategy to combat 'overtourism',” France 24, 20 June 2023)

Gas explosion triggers devastating fire and building collapse in Paris
On 21 June, an explosion, believed to be caused by a gas leak, tore through a building in central Paris, leaving four people in critical condition and causing extensive damage. Rescue teams are searching for two missing individuals, while 33 others sustained minor injuries. The blast was followed by a massive fire that resulted in the collapse of the building, which housed a fashion school. The cause of the explosion is under investigation. The city of Paris has previously experienced gas-related incidents, including a deadly blast in 2019. (“Paris explosion causes a building in the 5th arrondissement to collapse,” Le Monde, 21 June 2023)

SLOVAKIA
President Zuzana Caputova to not run for re-election
On 20 June, The Guardian reported on President Zuzana Caputova’s decision to not run for re-election because of personal reasons. She added that she would complete her term which would expire with elections scheduled in 2024. Although, the office of the President is largely ceremonial in Slovakia the President ratifies international treaties, appoints top judges, has veto powers and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. According to The Guardian, one of the reasons for her decision was the “consideration” for her family as she was constantly receiving death threats. It also said that since she was elected the first female President of Slovakia, Caputova has been continuously facing attacks from former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Smer-SD party who repeatedly called her “American Agent.” (“Slovakian president Čaputová says she will not run for re-election,” The Guardian, 20 June 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Archaeologists unearth “Stonehenge of Netherlands”
On 21 June, The Guardian reported that Dutch archaeologists unearthed an approximately 4000 years old religious site, nicknamed the “Stonehenge of the Netherlands.” The scientists located three burial mounds, a few miles from the banks of the Waal River. The main mound is about 20 metres in diameter and its passages serve as a solar calendar. The excavation began in 2017, about 30 kilometres Southeast of Utrecht. Scientists also located two more small burial mounds, besides the main mound. The archaeologists suggested that these mounds were used as burial sites for about 800 years. (“Archaeologists unearth 4,000-year-old 'Stonehenge of the Netherlands',” The Guardian, 21 June 2023)

THE UK
Bank of England expected to raise interest rates amid rising inflation
On 22 June, BBC news reported that the Bank of England is anticipated to raise interest rates for the 13th consecutive time in its ongoing efforts to address increasing prices. Official data revealed that inflation remained at 8.7 per cent in May, making it more likely for the Bank to announce an increase in its benchmark rate from 4.5 per cent. Domestic reactions include concerns over the impact on mortgages and support for rate hikes to control inflation. Despite debates on its effectiveness, interest rates continue to be the primary tool to combat inflation. Analysts predict a rise to 4.75 per cent, with the possibility of a larger increase to five percent. The decision is expected to bring challenges for homeowners but potentially benefit savers. (Kevin Peachey, “Interest rates set to rise for 13th time in a row,” BBC news, 22 June 2023)

TURKEY
Set to reverse unorthodox economic policies to tackle inflation
On 22 June, BBC news reported that Turkey is on the verge of reversing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unconventional economic measures as the new economic team aims to combat soaring inflation. Within a month of Erdogan's re-election, interest rates are expected to undergo a significant increase from the current level of 8.5 per cent. With inflation nearing 40 per cent and the population facing a severe cost-of-living crisis, the need for action is evident. Disagreements among economists persist regarding the extent of the interest rate hike, with projections ranging from an 11.5 point increase to 20 per cent to a possible peak of 40 per cent. Erdogan's challenge lies in the persistent high inflation rate and critically low central bank reserves, which were depleted in efforts to stabilize the lira. The economy's current crisis and its impact on local elections next year further complicate the decision-making process. (Paul Kirby, “Turkey's Erdogan set for economic U-turn and steep interest rate hike,” BBC news, 22 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Italy and France resolve disputes and collaborate on migration and Ukraine
On 21 June, AP news reported that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron resolved their recent dispute during a meeting where they found common ground on various topics, including military assistance to Ukraine and managing migration in the Mediterranean. The recent tragic migrant shipwreck off Greece has prompted a renewed focus on addressing immigration policies within the EU. Macron praised the collaboration between France and Italy on migration issues, emphasizing the need to work with countries of origin and transit to prevent influxes. Meloni highlighted the importance of dialogue between the two countries and their shared interests. The leaders also discussed their support for Ukraine and prepared for upcoming EU and NATO summits. Additionally, Meloni sought backing for Italy's bid to host the 2030 World Expo. (Sylvie Corbet and Angela Charlton, “Italy’s Meloni and France’s Macron express agreement on migration following policy dispute,” AP news, 21 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Western countries compete for mineral independence amid environmental concerns
On 20 June, Le Monde reported that western countries, driven by the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and escalating tensions between the US and China, are racing to achieve mineral independence. Europe, the US, Australia, Indonesia, and Chile are all making efforts in this regard. Even France is exploring its subsoil for lithium extraction. However, challenges arise from opposition to ocean mining due to environmental concerns, particularly in the fragile Arctic region. Furthermore, the refining process for ores, especially rare earths, poses significant pollution risks. China's dominance in the market highlights the question of who will undertake mining activities without facing public outcry as China does. (Philippe Escande, “Western countries are in a race for mineral independence,” Le Monde, 20 June 2023)


20 June 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #547

War in Ukraine: Day 481

UN adopts first international treaty on high seas after 15 years debate; Airbus-IndiGo deal as India’s aviation sector continues to grow; Climate in Europe continues to deteriorate says Copernicus

Photo : Raymond Roig/AFP


War in Ukraine: Day 481
By Sreeja JS and Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 18 June, the Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate accused Russia for continuing its nuclear blackmail tactics, utilizing the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and potentially the territory of Belarus for the placement of Russian nuclear weapons. According to a spokesperson Andriy Yusov, the occupation authorities no longer ensure nuclear safety standards at the Zaporizhzhia plant. This involves the presence of forces, weapons, shelling, and petrifying of power plant personnel. Yusov stated that the safety of these facilities, including environmental and nuclear safety, can only be guaranteed when they are under Ukrainian control. The threat persists as long as Russians troops remain in the occupied territories. 

On 19 June, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak held a phone conversation on hostility situation and defence requirements of Ukraine. They focused on enhancing the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, particularly through the acquisition of long-range weapons. Zelenskyy also highlighted Russia's increased missile production using western components and stressed on intensifying sanctions. 

On 19 June, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defence Hanna Maliar comments on increased Russian troops presence. According to the report, the Russian forces were trying to advance in the Lyman and Kupiansk directions. The Russia has concentrated a significant number of airborne assault units in the eastern region. Maliar highlighted the challenging situation in the east, with the Russian conducting an active offensive, intensifying shelling, and aiming to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The main direction of attack for Russia currently lies in this area. Despite, Russia’s offensive Ukrainian troops have successfully preventing Russia's advancement. 

The Moscow View
On 19 June, RT news reported on South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa comments on his visit to Ukraine and Russia. According to the report, the delegation presented a ten-point roadmap to Putin and Zelensky, aiming to end the ongoing conflict. The proposal included de-escalation of hostilities, respect for sovereignty under the UN charter, unrestricted grain exports, prisoner releases, and repatriation of children. While Zelenskyy emphasized the need for the withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territories, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin expressed a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue based on equity and the recognition of legitimate interests. Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the implementable ideas in the roadmap and confirmed continued dialogue with African countries.

On 19 June, RT news reported on Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson comments on the progress of stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to the report, stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus has no specified time limits. The initial shipment of nuclear warheads has already arrived in Belarus. The agreement took into account the "destructive practices" of joint nuclear missions by NATO members. Polishchuk emphasized that unlike the US warheads in Europe, Russia's weapons would be situated near their own borders and within the Union State of Russia and Belarus. While the possibility of withdrawing the weapons from Belarus exists, Moscow would only consider it if the US removed its nuclear infrastructure from Europe. The director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's second department of CIS countries, Alexei Polishchuk, said: "Russia's decision was a response to what they perceive as aggressive actions by the US and NATO."

The West View
On 19 June, the UK Ministry of Defence in its daily intelligence update noted that Russia started redeploying its Dnipro Group of Forces (DGF) in Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut. DGF was previous;y deployed in the eastern bank of  the Dnipro River. According to the Ministry, redeployment reflects Russia’s perception that a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro is less likely to occur after the Kakhovka Dam collapse and the flooding.

On 19 June, Reuters reported on Swedish Parliamentary defence committee’s concerns over deteriorating security in the nordic. According to the report the defence and security policy of Sweden should be designed to deal with Russia, which might pose a long-term threat to European and global security. Prerequisites of a Sweden’s defence policy had changed due to the Ukrain war, but according to Sweden’s Defence Minister Pal Jonson, Sweden was in a “better position” to protect itself compared to a decade earlier. According to Sweden’s armed forces chief, it needs more equipment, personnel, and infrastructure to strengthen its defence.

On 19 June, according to AP News, Russia had means, motive and opportunity to destroy Kakhovka Dam. According to the report, from the exclusive drone photos and information collected, Russian troops were stationed in the area inside the dam where Ukrainians reported on the explosion. Additionally, the photos showed an explosive-laden car atop the structure that might have exploded or not. The Institute for the Study of War also assessed: “The balance of evidence, reasoning and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam.”

The Global Fallouts
On 19 June, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan has agreed to establish a liaison system that will help Ukraine to reconstruct areas damaged because of Russian invasion. Japan’s reconstruction minister Hiromichi Watanabe and Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for Restoration of Ukraine also signed and MoU regarding the reconstruction support initiative. Nikkei Asia also said that Tokyo at the request of Ukraine, intends to advice and provide knowledge to Kyiv on rebuilding devastated regions based on the experience it gained from the earthquake and Tsunami that hit northern Japan in 2011. 

References
"Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 June 2023," Twitter, 19 June 2023
Niklas Pollard, Johan Ahlander, Anna Ringstrom and Simon Johnson,“Swedish defence must adapt to match 'long-term' Russian threat -lawmakers,” Reuters, 19 June 2023
Mstyslav Chernov and Lori Hinnant, “Russia had means, motive and opportunity to destroy Ukraine dam, drone photos and information show,” AP News, 19 June 2023
Ukraine latest: Kyiv says unable to contact war prisoners shifted to Hungary,” Nikkei Asia, 19 June 2023


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran

The UK 
Member’s of the Parliament vote to sanction Johnson
On 19 June, UK’s Member’s of the Parliament in the House of Commons approves the report which states that the former prime minister Boris Johnson deceived the parliament about the parties he held during the COVID pandemic. The ‘partygate’ as it is termed refers to a series of gatherings between 2020 and 2021 that was organized by Johnson during his tenure as PM. This flouted the strict lockdown rules that the UK was under at the time. The house’s Privileges Committee report recommended sanctioning Johnson for misleading the parliament, which equals “contempt” of the house. Member’s of the Parliament voted by 354 to 7. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak skipped the vote, as did many Conservative party members. Former prime minister Theresa May welcomed the move as a “small but important step in restoring people’s trust” in the parliament. Meanwhile, Johnson responded by accusing the committee for deliberately targetting him, terming it a “witch hunt.” (“Boris Johnson: UK lawmakers approve 'Partygate' report,” Deutsche Welle, 20 June 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Switzerland moves ahead with climate-sensitive law
On 18 June, 59.1 per cent of voters in Switzerland voted to approve the government's new climate and innovation law. The law has several areas it looks to tackle such as achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The law also aims at increasing energy security by replacing imported fossil fuels with Swiss-made renewables. Businesses will also benefit from incentives if they invest in green technologies. The new law has raked up support from most political parties, business communities and environmental groups. The main opponent has been the right-wing Swiss People’s Party which criticized the new law, describing it as an “electricity guzzler.” WWF responded to the news by stating that “the result shows that the Swiss people are more than ever willing to take responsibility for improving climate protection.” (Simon Bradley, “Swiss approve net-zero climate law,” Swissinfo.ch, 18 June 2023)

Impact of climate change manifests as sea surface temperatures increase
On 19 June, BBC reported that the European Space Agency (ESA) has alerted about intense marine heat in the seas around the UK and Ireland. Water temperatures are reported to have increased by three to four celcius above average. The Met Office has concluded that human-instigated climate change is one of the causes of this warming. Such marine heat waves can adversely impact sea life. According to data from the Met Office, global sea surface temperatures for April and May were the highest ever recorded. Further, the EU’s Copernicus climate and weather monitoring service showed that the first 11 days of June were the hottest ever recorded globally. In June, global air temperatures also breached preindustrial levels by more than 1.5 celcius for the first time. The winds from the Sahara desert blow dust that blocks and helps reflect the sun's energy out of the atmosphere, thereby controlling sea temperatures. However, Atmospheric scientist Professor Michael Mann said that these winds have been lower than average this year. (“Climate change: Sudden heat increase in seas around UK and Ireland,” BBC, 19 June 2023)

Climate in Europe continues to deteriorate says Copernicus
On 19 June, a report by the World Meteorological Organization and the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change informed that Europe was the fastest-warming continent. Last year, temperatures on the continent were 2.3 degrees Celsius hotter compared to pre-industrial times. Apart from dangerous heatwaves, droughts, increasing sea-surface temperatures, marine heat waves, and unparalleled glacier melts are experienced. Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo warned: “Unfortunately, this cannot be considered a one-off occurrence or an oddity of the climate.” Below-normal rainfall has also negatively impacted the agricultural sector. The hot weather also led to raging fires in France, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. In a small cheer for Europe, the report stated that for the first time, output from wind and solar power overtook electricity production from fossil gas for EU in 2022. (“Europe is world's fastest warming continent, finds climate report,” Le Monde, 19 June 2023) 

MARITIME
UN adopts first international treaty on high seas after 15 years debate
On 19 June, the UN adopted a historic first international treaty that will afford protection to the high seas. Officially titled the treaty on “Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction,” (BBNJ) it will draw up a legal framework that will cover 60 percent of the world’s oceans. The treaty is the result of over 15 years of deliberations, with the UN members finally giving their assent to it in March. The high seas fall outside the purview of the Exclusive Economic Zones of countries, which is the reason any treaty on the matter mandates international cooperation. The treaty also has principles for sharing the benefits of “marine genetic resources” (MGR) collected by scientific research and also has regulations listed for environment studies in international waters. (“UN adopts treaty to protect high seas,” Le Monde, 19 June 2023)

MIGRATION
Investigation over Greece boat tragedy finds nine guilty
On 19 June, BBC reported that nine Egyptian men who have been accused of the Greek migrant boat tragedy have pled not guilty to charges of human trafficking. The disaster that took place off the Greek coast has led to the opening of investigations including from the UN. Pakistan has also arrested alleged human trafdickers and opened up an inquiry to probe human trafficking rings in the country. Meanwhile, the BBC has flagged concerns regarding the testimonies of the Greek coastguards. According to investigations about ship movements in the region, the migrant boat was stationary for several hours. However, Greek authorities continue to maintain that the boat was on course to Italy and refused assistance. (“Greece boat disaster: Trafficking suspects plead not guilty,” BBC, 19 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Macron urges to promote development of European airspace
On19 June, France’s President Emmanuel Macron urged European nations to take an active interest in developing their airspace defence. He made the comments in a Paris meeting attended by defence delegations from 20 European countries as well as NATO and EU representatives. Macron stressed reducing reliance on the US and for European defence equipment manufacturers to relocate manufacturing in Europe under European standards. France has also not joined the European Sky Shield project which is a German-led initiative of 17 European member states to improve Europe’s air defences. France has said that this initiative undermines Europe’s sovereignty as it is largely collaborating with US and Israeli industries. Macron also informed that the Mamba anti-missile system developed along with Italy is now deployed and operational in Ukraine. (“Macron calls on Europe to develop its own airspace protection strategy,” Le Monde, 20 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU-Kenya sign new trade deal to allow free accessibility of markets
On 19 June, Kenya and the European Union signed a new trade deal. With this, Kenya will have duty-free and quota-free access to the markets of the EU. The EU is Kenya’s biggest market to which it exports majorly agricultural products. In return, imports from the EU to Kenya will benefit from an incremental tariff cut over a 25-year period, with a few exceptions. Kenya receives chemicals and machinery from the EU. The trade pact is being viewed as the EU’s attempt to strengthen economic ties with Africa and hold off China. The new Economic Partnership Agreement took just 7 months to finalize. (“Kenya, EU sign trade deal as Brussels bolsters Africa ties,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2023) 

Airbus-IndiGo deal as India’s aviation sector continues to grow
On 19 June, Airbus, the world's largest aircraft manufacturer announced that it had acquired a million-billion dollar deal with Indian airline IndiGo. Based in Haryana, IndiGo is India’s premier airline in the aviation sector with regard to passengers ferried and fleet size. Under the deal, IndiGo has placed an order for 500 single-aisle Airbus aircraft. IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers said that “This is just the beginning, there's more going forward. With the growth of India [and] the growth of the Indian aviation market [...] this is the right time for us to place this order.” Relations between IndiGo and Airbus date back to 2005 when IndiGo, then a startup, placed its first orders for a hundred A320s. India’s growing middle class and rapid expansion in the economic sector are increasingly presenting the country as an untapped reservoir of potential for the aviation sector. (Andreas Spaeth, “Airbus wins record IndiGo order as Indian aviation soars,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2023)


19 June 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #546

War in Ukraine: Day 479 & 480

African leaders' delegation visited Kyiv

Photo : GCIS/Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 479 & 480
By Sreeja JS and Sneha Surendran

War on the Ground
On 17 June, The Kyiv Independent reported on the African leaders' delegation that visited Kyiv to present a peace plan to end the war. Mykhaiol Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine’s Presidential Office, was of the opinion that the leaders were more absorbed in suspending the arrest warrant issued against Russian President Putin by the ICC on 17 March. 

On 16 June, Ukrinform reported that South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa introduced the African Peace Mission’s ten-point peace plan during the visit. The plan called for an end to the war and peace restoration through diplomatic talks. However, Ukraine President Zelensky answered that peace talks would transpire only after the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil.  

The Moscow View
On 18 June, RT reported on the statements made by the chairperson of the Zambian Socialist Party that the involvement of African nations in the Ukraine peace initiative was an indication of the African continent's influence in global affairs. An African delegation made official visits to Ukraine and Russia, meeting with the heads of both states. The delegation, which included the Presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and Comoros, the PM of Egypt, and officials from Congo and Uganda, introduced a 10-point roadmap to end fighting between the two countries. During his interaction with them, Putin informed the African officials that Kyiv was indisposed to talks, whereas Moscow had “never refused to conduct negotiations.”

On 17 June, African leaders met Putin in Saint Petersburg a day after concluding their talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the delegation respect the positions of both sides while calling for negotiations to end the war. According to Deutsche Welle, Putin welcomed the “balanced stance” on the conflict in Ukraine taken by the delegation. He also said that Moscow is “open to a constructive dialogue with all those who want peace based on the principles of justice and consideration of the legitimate interests of the parties.” 

The West View
On 18 June, The New York Times reported that the Kakhovka Dam collapse was likely the result of an explosion set off by Russia. An article titled, “An Inside Job,” in The New York Times, suggested that the explosive charge set deep in the structure of the concrete barrier destroyed the dam on 06 June. The dam collapse flooded the battleground and destroyed farmland and cut off water supplies to civilians. 

On 18 June, Deutsche Welle reported that EU Commissioner responsible for the bloc’s internal market Thierry Barton in an interview with Le Parisien said that the EU would step up their efforts to hasten the delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. 

On 18 June, the UK Defence Ministry, in its latest intelligence update, highlighted the intense fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, western Donetsk Oblast, and around Bakhmut, where Ukraine has made small advances. According to the update, Russian forces are conducting “relatively effective” defensive operations in the South. It also emphasized that both sides are suffering high casualties, and Russian losses are likely the highest since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March. 

On 18 June, Deutsche Welle reported that Britain would host the International Ukraine Recovery Conference 2023 on 21 June. The Summit hosted by both UK and Ukraine would aim to unlock the potential of the private sector to help make the war-torn nation “financially stronger” and more technologically advanced.”

On 17 June, the UK Defence Ministry said in its daily intelligence update that Russia has stepped up its helicopter attacks as Ukraine began its counteroffensive. Russia has deployed an additional 20 military helicopters to the Berdyansk Airport, which is about 100 kilometres from the front line. It also mentioned the possible temporary advantage Moscow gained in Southern Ukraine as its attack helicopters could launch longer-range missiles against Ukrainian ground targets. 

On 17 June, Deutsche Welle reported that NATO Defence ministers endorsed plans for a new maritime centre to secure the critical underwater infrastructure at NATO’s naval headquarters in Northwood, near London. The facility would contain a new surveillance system of undersea data cables and pipelines responsible for monitoring alliance areas in the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. According to Deutsche Welle, the new facility could also prevent attacks on energy infrastructure. 

References
Podolyak: African leaders came to Ukraine to ask for suspension of Putin's arrest warrant,” The Kyiv Independent, 17 June 2023
Ukraine peace initiative puts Africa at the table, Zambian delegate says,” RT, 18 June 2023
Ukraine updates: Dam collapse a Russian 'inside job',” Deutsche Welle, 18 June 2023
Ukraine: African leaders meet Putin on 'peace mission',” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2023


In Brief
By Prerana P and Melvin George

FRANCE 
Protests against the high-speed rail construction 
On 17 June, Euronews reported a large crowd protesting the construction of a new high-speed train line between France and Italy. The railway project includes a 57.5 kilometres tunnel that crosses the Alps between Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne and Suse, which the protestors say would ruin the sensitive Alpine environment. Police used tear gas at the crowd who gathered against the official ban on gatherings. For the supporters of the project, the traffic would be reduced, while the opponents are worried about the ecological damage. They say the springs have already dried because of the construction activities. (“French police use tear gas during protests in Savoy against Lyon-Turin rail link,” Euronews, 17 June 2023) 

GREECE
Fallouts of the Mediterranean shipwreck
On 19 June, Politico reported on the migrant tragedy that took place in the Mediterranean Sea. The boat disaster off Greece carried over 750 passengers, out of which 100 have survived. According to the UN’s migration and refugee agencies, hundreds are missing and the survivor’s testimonies were marked against Greece. Frontex stated that the ship was heavily overcrowded, and the Commissioner of Home Affairs informed the increasing cases of migrants from Libya to Europe. There has been criticism against the Greek authorities on insufficient rescue capacity. The Greek Supreme Court has urged to maintain secrecy in maintaining the investigation over the shipwreck, and the protest against the Greek authorities and their migration policies has increased on large pace. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Questions mount over latest migrant tragedy in Mediterranean,” Politico, 19 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Taiwan hopes in strengthening EU ties
On 18 June, Politico reported on Taiwan’s desire to strengthen bilateral relations with EU countries. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wu has addressed that if the TSMC, based in Taiwan, feels comforted in producing a positive result in EU markets, then the government would certainly agree in future investments. Wu expressed his concern about the status of TSMC in Taiwan and hoped for better bilateral support from other EU countries. Additionally, the minister has urged the German automobile industry to work upon the semiconductor TSMC’s input and has alerted issues of necessary sanctions to be made against China. The Foreign minister has requested the media platforms not to disclose the location and meeting details, which might be a threat to Taiwan. Although the EU stays neutral in the event of U.S.- China over Taiwan, the Minister showed great hope on the upcoming bonding. (Stuart Lau, “Build better ties instead of only asking for microchips, Taiwan tells Europe,” Politico, 18 June 2023)


16 June 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #544

Air Defender 23: A Symbol of NATO’s Unity | War in Ukraine: Day 477

Trouble in the Finland's fishery industry; Poland Government to conduct referendum over EU’s migrants and refugees deal  

Photo : AFP


IN FOCUS
By Prerana

Air Defender 23: A Symbol of NATO’s Unity
On 12 June 2023, NATO officially launched the “Air Defender 23” military exercise in Germany, which will run until 23 June 2023. Around 25 NATO countries will participate in the 12-day training drill, which includes more than 250 aircraft and 10,000 personnel deployed from their respective countries. The authorities will supervise the effectiveness of the cargo and fuel flights, both of which are used by Ukrainian troops in Kyiv’s war against Russia. This drill is considered the largest air deployment in the bloc’s history. The main objective behind the drill is to protect its member nations against drones, and cruise artilleries attacks within the NATO territory. German General, Gerhartz stated that the primary purpose of the drill is to showcase the unity among the NATO force against Russian aggression and to provide reassurance to the member countries, in defending their territory from upcoming conflicts.

A brief background 
NATO exercises focus on the dynamic structure of different variants like systems, map exercise, communication, ground work, capacity analysis and air space training. These exercises contribute immensely on the improvised version of defense reforms. NATO has conducted several air drills since February 2022 till date.

On 14 March, NATO organized a massive military drill named “Cold Response 2022” in Norway, which was exercised till 1 April 2022. It was an edition of 220 aircraft defence strategy, held in Norway. On 7 June, a US held Naval force held an annual naval exercise in the Baltic Sea along with its member allies. It received a high amount of participation from the Sweden force. On 23 September, NATO introduced the first unmanned Maritime systems exercise, which was held in the Portugal Maritime Operational Experimentation Centre, Portugal. With around 1,500 personnel, the unmanned system came to a halt on 30 September 2022. NATO holds the largest annual cyber defence exercise named Cyber Coalition 2022, which began its training on 28 November 2022 and wrapped up on 2 December 2022. This challenges the cyber threat and various advanced infrastructural attacks, which can cause disruption to the NATO force and to its allies. It acts as an experimental campaign which collaborates with various stakeholders and organizations. The exercise is followed by the latest drill named Arctic Challenge Exercise 2023 (ACE 2023). It holds the notable multinational host nations, which include the Air Forces of Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Air Defender 2023 holds the historical impressions of being the largest air force deployment with essential transatlantic solidarity. 

Air drills: Location and its equipment
The air crafts from the joined countries will be stationed on several essential air bases, like Jagel Airbase in Germany and the operations are held at three main hubs which includes Schleswig/Hohn, Wunstorf and Lechfeld located in the northern, lower Saxony and the eastern parts of Germany respectively, while other training events will focus on the ground troops and evacuation missions. The groundwork training areas can extend over northern Brandenburg, Mecklenburg, western Pomeranian region and the Baltic Sea. The Fighter planes used include US F-35 stealth jets F-15s and F-16s, Turkey, US and Greece, Eurofighters from Spain and the UK, German Tornadoes, US and Finnish F/A-18s, Hungarian Gripens and US A-10 ground-attack jets. The drill focuses on two major activities which includes NATO Air Policing and NATO Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). NATO Air Policing contributes the strong solidarity among Allies and acts as a shield to the Baltic members, which do not possess the required aircraft. While NATO (BMD) shields the populations and the territories from a varied proliferation of ballistic missiles. 

Significance of the drills
The Air Defender exercise is led by the German Air Force, and the country also manages the air operations. The drill signifies the alliance’s promptness in reassessing its priorities. The NATO members of the Baltic region, located in north-eastern Europe, are concerned about the Russian invasion and its massive impact on them. Ukraine has received strong supporters in Eastern Europe, which includes Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland etc. The exercise would further address the ongoing tension in the Baltic region. This multi-national military exercise holds a strong political and notable military significance in the Air Force record and highlights Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which features an essential concept of collective defence. Ukraine has received influential IRIS-T (medium range air defence) and Patriot missile defence systems from their partners in combating the ongoing attack. The Air Defender drill acts as an offensive and defensive exercise. Controlling the airspace remains the key element of a successful military, and Ukraine would soon deploy its troop in order to adapt such qualitative technologies.

References
Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 12 June 2023
Mustafa Deveci, “Largest NATO drill in Germany shows commitment to Eastern flank security,” Anadolu Ajansi, 13 June 2023
Alexandra Sharp, “NATO Begins Largest Air Force Drills in Its History,” Foreign Policy, 12 June 2023
Brad, “As Ukraine fights back, hundreds of NATO warplanes are flying over Germany in alliance’s largest-ever aerial drills,” CNN World, 14 June 2023
Air Defender 23,” Bundeswehr, Accessed on 15 June 2023
NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 13 June 2023
Why advanced weapons can help Ukraine defeat Russia,” European Council on Foreign Relations, 20 April 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 477
By Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 15 June, Ukrinform reported Russian missile attacks in Kryyvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk region at night. Two industrial enterprises got hit, and the production facilities were significantly damaged. Ukraine’s air defence forces shot down one missile, and the soldiers of the Air Command East destroyed five Shahed-131/136 drones. 

On 15 June, The Kyiv Independent reported that Ukrainian forces gained up to one kilometre in the eastern and southern directions. According to Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Ukrainian military is progressing near Vuhledar in Eastern Donetsk. Ukrainian forces have made limited success so far. According to The Kyiv Independent, Ukrainian forces have liberated seven settlements in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts over the past week reclaiming more than 100 kilometres. They have also advanced up to three kilometres to the south of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast. 

On 15 June, in an interview with NBC News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is putting up a desperate fight against the Ukrainian counteroffensive and if the Russian troops lose this campaign, it would mean losing the war, reports NBC News. He added that the news from the front lines is “generally positive, but it is very difficult.”

On 15 June, Zelenskyy addressed the Federal Assembly and the people of the Swiss Federation. He said, “Ukrainian land is a territory of peace,” and “the cause of aggression is outside our borders.” He expressed his gratitude towards Switzerland for not remaining indifferent to the Russian invasion and for supporting the joint European sanctions against Russia. He also invited Swiss citizens to join the preparation of the Global Peace Summit as part of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. 

The Moscow View 
On 15 June, RT reported that Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) would conduct elections in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaprozhzhia regions on Russia’s Single Voting Day, scheduled on 10 September.  

On 14 June, Russia’s Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic Aleksey Chekunkov during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum told RT that the Arctic is crucial for the future of Russia’s economy. He said: “The Arctic and the Far East are a treasure trove. The Arctic is where the future economy of Russia is being built. What happens today in the Arctic and the Far East will serve many generations of Russians.” He also stressed that Russia is engaged in developing infrastructure in the Northern Sea Route. 

On 15 June, during a joint press conference with Algeria’s President AbdelMadjid Tebboune, Putin stated that Russia’s contacts with African countries now are more intensive than ever. He also said that he would meet the leaders of several other African countries to discuss the Ukrainian Peace initiative in the coming days. 

The West View
On 15 June, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update mentioned the Russian Ministry of Defence’s demand that the members of “volunteer formations” like Wagner Group sign contracts with the Ministry. It noted Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin’s decision that the group would not sign the contracts. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Prigozhin’s rhetoric is evolving into defiance of broader sections of the Russian establishment. 

On 15 June, according to a press release in GOV.UK the defence ministries of Denmark, Netherlands, the UK and the US Department of Defence are partnering to deliver air defence equipment to Ukraine. According to the press release, the delivery of equipment has already begun and would be complete within several weeks. 

On 15 June, NATO Defence Ministers met in Brussels ahead of the Vilnius Summit in early July. While addressing the NATO-Ukraine Commission, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO Allies should continue increasing equipment delivery to Kyiv. Stoltenberg reaffirmed that “Ukraine’s future lies within the Euro-Atlantic family and that all allies agree that Ukraine will become a NATO member.

On 15 June, Members of the European Parliament called upon NATO to invite Ukraine to join the alliance. In the resolution that was adopted, they emphasized that Kyiv’s integration into NATO and the EU would enhance security and strengthen the relationship between Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic community. They condemned the Kakhovka dam collapse and called for a comprehensive and adequate EU recovery package for Ukraine for its immediate relief, reconstruction and recovery. 

On 14 June, NATO Secretary while addressing Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive said: “It is still early days, and we do not know if this will be a turning point of the war, but we see that the Ukrainians are making advances and liberating more land.” He also stated that the more gains Ukraine makes, the stronger its hand will be at the negotiating table, eventually making Putin realize that he has to negotiate peace. 

The Global Fallouts
On 15 June, SAnews reported that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has arrived in Warsaw for a visit to Poland, Ukraine and Russia. He is heading a delegation consisting of Heads of State from Zambia, the Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda to lead African Peace Mission. Ramaphosa has previously remarked that the aim of the mission is to hear from both leaders to discuss what would it take to end the war that broke out last year. The delegation is expected to meet Zelenskyy and his government in Kyiv followed by a meeting with Putin. Both Zelenskyy and Putin have welcomed African leaders’ mission to persuade Ukraine and Russia into talks to end the war. 

References
Kryvyi Rih again hit by Russian missiles, man injured,” Ukrinform, 15 June 2023
Russia will lose the war if Ukraine's counteroffensive succeeds, Zelenskyy tells NBC News,” NBC News, 15 June 2023
By supporting Ukraine, the world supports protection from war, because the source of aggression is outside our borders - Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address to the Federal Assembly and the people of the Swiss Confederation,” president.gov.ua, 15 June 2023
Alexander Khrebet, “Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian forces slowly advance east, south as counteroffensive ongoing,” The Kyiv Independent, 15 June 2023
Russia announces elections in new regions,” RT News, 15 June 2023
Russia’s economic future lies in Arctic, minister tells RT,” RT News, 15 June 2023
Russia-Africa contacts ‘more intensive than ever’ – Putin,” RT News, 15 June 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 June 2023,” Twitter, 15 June 2023
NATO Defence Ministers to address Ukraine support, deterrence and defence, investment,” nato.int, 14 June 2023
NATO Secretary General: we must ensure Ukraine can defend itself now and in the future,” nato.int, 15 June 2023
Ministry of Defence and The Rt Hon Ben Wallace MP, “Joint statement by Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK, and the USA,” GOV.UK, 15 June 2023
Parliament calls on NATO to invite Ukraine to join the alliance,” europarl.europa.eu, 15 June 2023
African leaders kick off peace mission,” sanews.gov.za, 15 June 2023  


In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Melvin George 

FINLAND
Petteri to head the four party coalition
On 15 June, Finland’s incoming Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that his National Coalition Party (NCP) was set to form a four-party coalition with the Finns Party, the Swedish Peoples Party (RKP) and the Christian Democrats. The far-right Finns Party had come second in the general elections that were held in April. Together, the four parties account for 108 out of 200 seats in the parliament. The coalition announcemnet comes after nearly 11 weeks of negotiations especially since the Finns and the RKP do not see eye-to-eye on topics of immigration, climate policies and public finances. With the formation of the coalition, Finland is on course for a switch to right-wing politics. (“Finland's conservatives to form coalition with far-right,” DW, 16 June 2023) 

Trouble in the fishery industry
On 16 June, Daily Finland reported on the National Resources Institute Finland’s press release that the fisheries sector had recorded their lowest revenue collection in a decade. Still recovering from the pandemic and with a looming energy crisis, the year 2021 saw the net revenue for fisheries at Euros 836 million from 1765 companies. Out of these 1765 companies, 70 percent are fishing companies, within which a majority are small coastal companies. Fish processing (51 percent) and wholesalsale fish trade (26 percent) accounted for the maximum revenue. However, this still still falls short of EUR 20 million compared to the previous year, 2020. (“Fisheries sector posts decade-lowest revenue,” Daily Finland, 16 June 2023)

ICELAND
Increase in foreign nationals 
On 15 June, Iceland Monitor reported an overall 7.8 percent increase in the population of foreign nationals in Iceland since the past 6 months. As of 1 June, 69593 people of foreign origin were registered as residents. There has been an increase in immigration into the country since 1 December 2022 with people coming in from Ukraine, Romania, Belarus and Poland. However, Icelandic citizens themselves have decreased by 5.3 percent, now comprising 82.3 percent of the population. (“Foreign nationals in Iceland increased by 7.8% in the last six months,” Iceland Monitor, 15 June 2023)

POLAND 
Government to conduct referendum over EU’s migrants and refugees deal  
On 15 June, Poland’s ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that a referendum has to be conducted over the EU deal on sharing the responsibility over migrants and refugees. Poland expressed its opposition to the deal in the lower house of the parliament. The deal says that countries that are not willing to host refugees and migrants would have to provide funding, equipment and personnel. Poland also opposed the quota system that attempts to relocate migrants referring to security concerns. (“Poland's Kaczynski says EU migrant deal must be put to referendum,” Reuters, 15 June 2023) 

CLIMATE CHANGE
No clear winners for the Nature Restoration Regulation
On 15 June, Politico reported on the push and pull factor of the new legislation. The environment committee has contributed their vote agreeing on the Nature Restoration Regulation, which aimed to retain a 20 per cent blocs towards retaining a better natural state. At the same time, the EPP rejected the legislation and failed partially. Socialists blamed the right wing for always opposing the ecological transformation and pointed out the intense political situation. Various MEPs was put under the dilemma of whether to back or reject the bill. Each sides claimed victory, and the final plenary vote is expected to be held on 10 July. The current poll is tied, which indicates the possibility of the failure of the EPP. (Louise Guillot and Eddy Wax, “EU conservatives fail to kill nature restoration bill – for now,” Politico, 15 June 2023)

REGIONAL
EU hesitant to take measures against China in protecting its car industry
On 15 June, Politico reported on the increased pressure by France over the EU to probe a tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, while the EU is hesitant about this decision. EU is concerned about China’s turn towards the cheap vehicle market, which can affect the EU’s e-car production. The Internal Market Commissioner has urged the dumping investigation on electric cars. The ‘Buy China’ policies has disrupted the medical market; additionally, Brussels has been working on to the Chinese rail industries. The French Economy Ministry claimed the necessity to impose tariffs on Chinese cars to combat unfair trading practices. The EU has advised the e-car industry to win the car sector against China’s development. China has blocked the Baltic-Taiwan trade ties and can damage the EU’s heavy investments. Thus, this issue will soon be voiced at an EU leader’s summit. (Barbara Moens, Jakob Hanke Vela, Joshua Posaner, Hans Von Der Burchard, Giorgio Leali, and Camille Gijs, “France presses EU to declare trade war against China,” Politico, 15 June 2023)


15 June 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #543

Belarus receives tactical nuclear weapons from Russia | War in Ukraine: Day 476

Macron assures support for French AI startups; Erdogan opposes Sweden entering the NATO bid; European Parliament to vote on AI act  

Photo : Associated Press


IN FOCUS
By Rishika Yadav

Belarus receives tactical nuclear weapons from Russia: Three issues
On 13 June, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on receiving some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons. He emphasized the power of the Russian nuclear weapons as three times more potent than the atomic bombs. Lukashenko clarified that he would consult with Russian President Vladimir Putin before using the weapons but expressed confidence in their coordination. Lukashenko justified the deployment as a deterrent against potential aggression. He added that Belarus was also preparing facilities for intercontinental nuclear-tipped missiles. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine previously hosted Soviet nuclear weapons but relinquished them to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

On 25 March, Putin announced his plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as a response to Britain's decision to supply Ukraine with armour-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium. These tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield, and have a shorter range and lower yield than long-range nuclear warheads. Russia will maintain control over the weapons deployed in Belarus, with storage facilities set to be completed by 01 July. Lukashenko also offered nuclear weapons to countries joining the union between Belarus and Russia. Lukashenko's remarks were made in response to Kazakhstan's president mentioning the sharing of nuclear weapons between Belarus and Russia. 

Following are the three issues: 
1. Domestic opposition to the deployment: 
If implemented, the plan to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus and involve Belarusian aircrew, would compromise the country's international commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. This deployment raises concerns among the Belarusians people due to its nuclear status which undermines the global non-proliferation regime. According to polls, 74 per cent of Belarusians oppose hosting Russian nuclear weapons. Critics of Lukashenko's regime, including exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, express concern about the transfer of nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus.

As the G7 leaders met to discuss nuclear disarmament, they urged the international community to support Belarus in maintaining its nuclear-free status by joining the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. 

2. Risk for further escalation: 
Russia's plan to place the tactical weapon in Belarus comes in response to the increasing weapon support by the West to Ukraine. The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus solidifies Russia's control over the country, threatening Ukraine's security and that of Europe. Through control, Russia will now be able to use it as storage while its instills fear in the west over nuclear armament. The tactical nuclear weapons, deployable through Iskander-M missiles or Su-25 planes, bring them closer to the conflict zone in Ukraine and potentially within range of NATO members. Putin also mentioned that Belarus has modernized military aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads and Iskander short-range missiles that could potentially launch nuclear weapons. Lukashenko commented: "I am not planning to fight the US… tactical weapons are fine." This move heightens tensions and draws international condemnation, raising concerns in the US and Europe. 

3. Deepening reliance on Russia: 
Belarus served as a launching point for Russian troops during their incursion into Ukraine. Lukashenko disclosed plans to increase the production of unguided rockets for multiple rocket launchers. He has relied on Russia's political and economic support to withstand protests, arrests, and international sanctions. It is important to note that Lukashenko relies heavily on Putin's government, as demonstrated by Belarus allowing Moscow to use its territory for launching attacks on Ukraine last year. This decision widened the front against Ukraine and brought the conflict closer to its capital, Kyiv. Russia’s beginning the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, further solidifying their alliance. 

References
Leader of Belarus says he wouldn’t hesitate to use Russian nuclear weapons to repel aggression,” AP news, 14 May 2023
Putin says Russia will station tactical nukes in Belarus,” AP news, 26 March 2023
Gaya Gupta, “Lukashenko says Belarus has started receiving Russian nuclear weapons,” The New York Times, 14 June 2023
Andrew Roth, “Russia moving nuclear warheads to Belarus, says dictator Lukashenko,” The Guardian, 25 May 2023
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Daniel Hogsta, “Russia must cancel dangerous plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus,” Politico, 20 May 2023
Belarus: Lukashenko says Russian tactical nukes on their way,” Deutsche Welle, 25 May 2023
Tom Nichols, “What Happens if Russia Stashes Nukes in Belarus,” The Atlantic, 26 May 2023
Haley Ott, “Belarus now has Russian nuclear weapons "three times more powerful" than those used on Japan, leader says,” CBS news, 14 June 2023
Sarah Rainsford, “Russian nuclear weapons 'in hands of Belarus dictator', warns opposition leader,” BBC News, 15 May 2023
Yuliya Talmazan, “Nuclear weapons for everyone’ who joins Belarus and Russia, Putin ally promises,” NBC news, 29 May 2023
Andrew Osborn, “Belarus to get Russian tactical nuclear weapons 'in days,' Lukashenko says,” Reuters, 13 June 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 476
By Nithyashree RB

War on the Ground
On 14 June, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s spokesperson, Natalia Humeniuk comments on Russian shelling in Southern Ukraine. In an interview with United News, Humeniuk, said that the shelling had decreased in Southern Ukraine. She added that the number of Russia’s troops' attacks had reduced to 38 from 60 on 14 June. According to her, shelling continued in the flood-hit areas in Kherson. She said that missiles were launched from the Black Sea by Russia towards the Odesa region. She said the Ukrainian Air defence units shot down three Kalibr cruise missiles, and nine Shahed drones which were fired towards Odesa and Donetsk region.

On 14 June, Netherlands’ Defence Ministry announced its joint plans to commence F-16 fighter jet training for Ukraine’s pilots along with Denmark and the US. On the same, Netherlands’ Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren, stated that basic pilot and language proficiency training will be provided. It will be carried out through the setting up of a training centre in one of the Eastern European countries, while Belgium, Luxembourg, and the UK will prepare the content for the course.

On 14 June, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal informed on Telegram that Kingspan Group, an Irish building materials company, is investing over USD 280 million in Ukraine. Shmyhal added that it could create 700 jobs and help in the reconstruction of houses and industries.

On 14 June, the European Commission stated that following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, the EU sent three mobile water treatment stations that can produce up to 120,000 litres of water. Under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism 16 EU member countries have sent financial aid, water tankers, pumps and various equipment to flood-hit regions in Ukraine. The EU has provided a further EUR 500,000 for flood relief over the EUR 200 million allocated for Ukraine for the year 2023.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 June, RT reported on Russia’s defence ministry's claims of killing Ukrainian troops. According to the report, 7500 Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded on the front line and had lost 800 soldiers, 20 tanks, 15 armoured vehicles and four armoured personnel carriers. The ministry added that the attacks on Makarivka and Prechistovka by the Ukrainian troops were unsuccessful. The ministry affirmed that the Ukrainian troops failed in gaining territories since their counter-offensive. 

On 14 June, RT reported on Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) report on a state of emergency in Kherson. According to the report following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, damages accounted for more than USD 14 million and 2,237 people, 194 children and 138 physically impaired persons were reported to have been rescued from the flood-hit regions in Kherson.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 14 June, Azerbaycan reported on the European Council meeting held in Brussels to discuss the 11th round of sanctions on Russia. Azerbaycan added that sanction measures will be prepared in the next EU summit which is expected to be held on 29-30 June. The 11th round of sanctions aims at sanctioning those helping Russia circumvent the sanctions.

On 14 June, The New York Times reported that Germany established its first national security strategy in the aftermath of the Ukrainian war and various military, economic and geopolitical threats. The strategy will focus on three pillars. First, an active defence, that induces high military spending. Second, resilience, to be self-reliant, to prevent cyberattacks and to uphold the rule of law and the UN charter. Third, sustainability, to focus on climate change and the food crisis.

On 14 June, NATO reported on the upcoming Vilnius summit. According to NATO, the defence ministers will be meeting in Brussels on 15-16 June ahead of the Vilnius summit to discuss providing support to Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “The more gains Ukraine makes, the more likely it will be that President Putin realises he cannot win on the battlefield, but has to negotiate a just peace.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War
 
On 14 June, UNHCR published the Global Trends in Forced Displacement 2022 that 5.7 million people fled Ukraine and 5.9 million were internally displaced due to the war in 2022. The number of refugees increased by 35 per cent and is primarily due to the Ukrainian war and 16 per cent of the world refugees were Ukrainians. The report stated that the Ukrainian war triggered the “fastest displacement crisis” and Ukraine had faced the fastest refugee outflow since the second world war. In 2022, 57 per cent of the Internally Displaced persons were women in Ukraine. 

References
Enemy shells Kherson region 57 times in past day, civilian killed,” Ukrinform, 14 June 2023
Denys Shmyhal Prime Minister of Ukraine,” Telegram, 14 June 2023
Training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots will start in the coming months,” Defense.nl, 14 June 2023
Ukraine: EU mobilises emergency stockpiles and provides funding to support crisis response to Nova Kakhovka dam breach,” European Commission, 14 June 2023
Moscow estimates Ukraine’s counteroffensive losses,” RT News, 14 June 2023
Moscow reveals estimated financial costs of Kakhovka dam destruction,” RT News, 14 June 2023
Ukraine forces shell Nova Kakhovka -Russia-installed officials,” Reuters, 14 June 2023
EU leaders push for latest anti-Russia sanctions package,” Azerbaycan, 14 June 2023
Steven Erlanger and Christopher F Scuetze, “Germany Introduces Its First National Security Strategy,” The New York Times, 14 June 2023
NATO Defence Ministers to address Ukraine support, deterrence and defence, investment,” NATO, 14 June 2023
Global Trends in Forced Displacement 2022 (embargoed),” UNHCR, 14 June 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran and Melvin George 

FINLAND
Rise in the number of wolves in Finland
On 14 June, Yle News reported on Natural Resources Institute Finland’s study on the wolf population. It found an increase in the wolf population in the country compared to last year. This keeps in trend with the annual 10 per cent increase observed since 2017. An increased reproductive rate, decreasing death rates and migration of wolves from Russia explains the growing population. Initially populating the west, wolves are now also seen in southwest Finland. However, the increase in wolf numbers has alarmed sheep and reindeer herders and dog owners as there have been a few reports of the wolves hunting their animals. (“Finland's wolf population continues to grow,” Yle News, 14 June 2023)

FRANCE 
Macron assures support for French AI startups 
On 14 June, during a press conference, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced EUR 500 million for the AI projects targeting Silicon Valley confirming the English language dominance in AI systems. Products ranging from augmented reality ski masks to AI-animated bots from over 2000 companies are being displayed in the tech trade show. Macron confirmed earlier that he would meet Elon Musk on 14 June where both would discuss encouraging AI developments in France. Macron emphasized speeding up AI regulations that are under process in the EU and warned against regulation devoid of investing. (“Macron announces €500 million in funding for AI,” Le Monde, 14 June 2023)

GERMANY
Coalition to amend contested heating law
On 14 June, The Guardian reported that Germany has settled on amending the contested heating law which faced strong debates for weeks. However, environmental organizations argued that this will delay the country's goal to achieve net zero targets by years. According to the original bill, the installation of green heating systems was vouched when being replaced. The amendment shifts this responsibility from individual households to municipal officials who are expected to lay a ground plan by 2028. The shift is expected to cause EUR 9.2 billion a year till 2028 which will be subsidized through government funds. (“Germany coalition staves off implosion with 11th-hour heating law amendment,” The Guardian, 14 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Erdogan opposes Sweden entering the NATO bid
On 14 June, the Turkey's President Erdogan declared that Sweden had not received any support to join the NATO military alliance from Turkey. Officials expressed disappointment as there was not any apparent progress. Both Sweden and Finland were prepared to enter the NATO bid in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine War but were disrupted by Turkey’s concern about Stockholm’s act of support to the Kurdish groups of Ankara. Despite Sweden’s declaration of updated domestic terrorism legislation, Erdogan seem to be unconvinced. Ukraine and Sweden joining NATO will soon be discussed in the Vilinius summit in Lithuania. (Nicolas Camut and Lili Bayer, “Turkey’s Erdogan plays down Sweden’s NATO hopes,” Politico.eu, 14 June 2023)

Anti-competitive practices in Google adtech may attract harshest penality: says EU
On 14 June, Reuters reported that the European Commission sets out to investigate Google's ad tech business favouring its own advertising services. It may attract fines of up to ten per cent of Google’s global turnover. Seventy nine per cent of the total revenue of Google last year came from advertising businesses using Gmail, Google Play, Google Maps, YouTube adverts, Google Ad Manager, AdMob and AdSense. This comes to around USD 224.5 billion. The European Council has given Google a few months to respond on the issue. EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager said: "For instance, Google could divest its sell-side tools, DFP and AdX. By doing so, we would put an end to the conflicts of interest…how they function and also why a behavioural commitment seemed to be out of the question." (Foo Yun Chee, “Google faces EU break-up order over anti-competitive adtech practices,” Reuters, 15 June 2023)

European Parliament to vote on AI act
On 14 June, the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will vote on the draft negotiation mandate to bring the Artificial Intelligence Act. The act is seen as the first-ever comprehensive rule in the world to manage AI and associated risks. Looking forward to the foundation models and generative AI, several transparency and safety provisions were added to the draft.  The draft was formulated by the committees on the Internal Market (IMCO) and Civil Liberties (LIBE). The MEPs proposed expansion of prohibited AI practices such as “real-time” remote biometric identification systems, predictive policing, and emotion recognition to the draft. They also recommended including high-risk issues related to AI like use in recommender systems and voter influencing. (“Artificial Intelligence Act: press conference 14/6 at 13.30 CEST with President and co-rapporteurs,” European Parliament, 14 June 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
European Commission’s expert body faces backlash from NGOs 
On 14 June, Euractiv reported on the Expert Group on Carbon Removals that will aid the EU to research and implement plans to reduce negative carbon emissions. The planned second meeting of the expert body has run into concerns from five NGOs highlighting the issues of less representation of environmental and scientific groups and the low number of female speakers during the first meeting. The letter stated that more business organizations were considered and also given more speaking time during the previous meeting. The Commission has responded by saying that participants are selected through fixed criteria and gender diversity has been ensured for the forthcoming meeting. (Julia Dahm, “Carbon sinks: NGOs slam ‘unbalanced’ Commission expert body,” Euractiv, 14 June 2023)

Europe braces for harsh weather conditions
On 14 June, the European Environment Agency (EEA) reported that Europe is headed for extreme weather. The EEA released an online tool named ‘Extreme summer weather in a changing climate: is Europe prepared?’ to inform users about weather patterns, possible natural disasters and climate-related diseases across Europe. With the summer approaching, European countries are expected to experience increased heat waves, flooding, droughts and wildfires. The EEA highlighted the importance of preparing preventive and mitigation strategies to combat climate-sensitive impacts. It called for the participation of local authorities as well as for a special focus on the agriculture sector. The EEA’s Climate-Adapt portal has listed various measures already in place. (“What could the summer bring? Is extreme weather the new normal?,” European Environment Agency, 14 June 2023) 

EU Mission on adaptation to climate change forum concluded successfully
On 14 June, the European Commission reported that over 600 participants actively took part in the two-day Forum of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change. The participants were from Europe and outside the continent. The discussions revolved around climate change, management and adaptation practices, and collaboration opportunities between national and regional authorities across Europe and beyond. The event showcased the active response and readiness of various actors to tackle climate-related changes across Europe and the world. (“Shaping the future of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change,” European Commission, 14 June 2023)

GENDER
LGBTQ+ community alarmed at the latest bill
On 14 June, Russian lawmakers approved a bill that bans gender transitioning procedures. Senior lawmaker Pyotr Tolstoy declared that the act was approved to protect Russia’s family and culture from being infiltrated into Western anti-family ideologies. The bill also banned medical interventions aimed at changing the sex of a person. Russian transgender community and LGBTQ+ rights advocates expressed their concern and demanded safety in Russia, as they are sure the bill would easily pass 400 members of the parliament. Since 2013, the state has restricted various LGBTQ rights, and Russian authorities fear the steady growth of reported gender transition cases. Speaker of the State Duma stated gender transition as: “pure satanism.” Therapists and Medical authorities questioned the future of the marginalized community. (Dasha Litvinova, “In blow to Russian LGBTQ+ community, lawmakers weigh a bill banning gender transitioning procedures,” AP News, 14 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Mali Referendum to decide on constitutional changes 
On 13 June, France 24 reported that Mali is set to vote on a referendum on 18 June that will decide whether the constitution will be subject to reforms. If successful, the country will see the demotion of French as an official language and the granting of voting rights to municipal elections for Malians residing abroad. On 11 June, the military set off the referendum procedure by casting early ballots. (“Vote on Malian constitution: Soldiers cast ballots during early referendum,” France 24, 13 June 2023)


14 June 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #542

RIP: Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s Power Broker | War in Ukraine: Day 474

Impact of Air Defender 23 drills on major airports; Erdogan demands recognition of Northern Cyprus

Photo : ANDREW MEDICHINI/ASSOCIATED PRESS


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 12 June, Italy’s former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi passes away at the age of 86 in Milan. Berlusconi started his career in real estate and went on to establish a “media empire” in 1974 using the profits from his real estate ventures. Later he expanded into 150 businesses, such as publishing, commercial stores, and a soccer club.

In 1994, Berlusconia established his own political party and went on to serve as prime minister for three terms spanning from 1994 to 2011. Multiple scandals in tax fraud, bribery, sex scandals and, most importantly Italy’s economic shortfall paved the way for his fall. Despite that, he played a key role in Italy’s politics till his death. 

According to Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, he was seen as the most influential in Italy’s history and praised for his “courage and determination.” She said: "With him, Italy learned that it must never allow itself to be limited, and it must never give up."

Berlusconi: A Short biography
Berlusconi began a real estate business for young men and women with an aim to bring a posh “lifestyle-driven clientele.” He was well known to be a businessman than a politician with persuasion and always on the urge to seek the crowd approval. For some, during his term Italy’s society, culture and politics had a transformation. He was also the first prime minister to have served without being an elected official and had a good hold on geopolitics. 

The creation of Forza Italia in 1994 was supported by many young Italians and democratic societies creating a cult. This helped him to serve three times. To support his political party, he formed alliance with Northern League to include northern Italy and post-fascist groups which helped in increasing his popularity. Later, the coalition became the basis for launching Meloni as a politician, who was made the youngest government minister under the alliance in 2008. 

How he dealt with crisis and failure?
During the 2008 financial crisis, Berlusconi missing to portray the crisis and not taking enough measures led to grind down of Italy’s economy. This led to unsustainable debt levels resulting in people losing confidence in him. Despite his counter to introduce measures to tackle the crisis, it was taken to protect his pubic image than real impact to economy. Due to which Italy’s recovery slowed which still differentiates it from rest of the developed countries. Followed by the reputational damage over the financial crisis, and expose of the tax fraud and scandals, Berlusconi modified laws and introduced new measures to avoid trials, save his image and at the same to boost his businesses.

What does he leave behind?
Despite his resignation in 2011, remained a highly influential “political powerbroker,” till his last day. Although Berlusconi was equally loved and hated, his leadership style of giving importance to centrality and speaking the common people language is shared by Meloni. From the point of Italy’s leader, his actions in establishing commercial tv, soccer, politics and economic have always remained unconventional.

References
The death of Silvio Berlusconi creates uncertainty for his party,” The Economist, 13 June 2023
Davide Ghiglione, and Sam Hancock, “Former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi dies at 86,” BBC, 13 June 2023
Silvio Berlusconi was Italy’s great seducer,” The Economist, 12 June 2023
Jason Horowitz and Rachel Donadio, “Silvio Berlusconi, a Showman Who Upended Italian Politics and Culture, Dies at 86,” The New York Times, 12 June 2023
Kelly Phillips Erb, "Berlusconi Leaves Behind A Complicated Legacy Involving Politics, Soccer And Tax Fraud," Forbes.com, 13 June 2023.


War in Ukraine: Day 475
By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 13 June, EFE reported on the comments made by the mayor of Kryvyi Rih city, Oleksandr Vilkul, that at least ten civilians were killed in a large-scale Russian missile strike on the hometown of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with 28 others injured. The strike was carried out with cruise missiles, hit a five-story residential building, causing casualties and fires. On the counteroffensive, Ukraine reported advances in operations near Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian forces have gained control of significant areas, including the outskirts of the Russian-occupied port of Berdyansk.

On 12 June, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar announced that in the past week, Ukraine's Armed Forces had freed seven settlements as part of the counteroffensive. Maliar stated that the military had regained 90 square kilometers of land, with advances of up to five kilometeres in Bakhmut. On the same, UK’s Parliament's Defence Committee reports that a "major attack" by Ukraine against Russian forces in the Donbas region may occur in the coming days. 

On 13 June, Zelenskyy held a meeting with IAEAs Director General, Rafael Grossi as part of his visit to Zaporizhzhia. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for Grossi's prompt response to the Ukraine’s challenges, particularly the increased risks to the security of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant due to Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam. The discussion focused on minimizing risks, preventing incidents, and collaborating with the IAEA. Zelenskyy also endorsed Grossi's proposal to send a group of IAEA experts to assess the consequences of the dam explosion and provide assistance recommendations.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 June, RT news reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin address at Kremlin on Moscow's military objectives in the Ukraine War. He stated that the objectives remain unchanged. He emphasized the gradual demilitarization of Ukraine, due to  its reliance on Western weapons and equipment. On Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Putin stated that Kyiv had suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses, “without success in any sector.”  On the possibility of new recruitment, he mentioned that it would occur only upon decision to march on Kyiv. On Russia’s defence industry, Putin stated that it had increased ten fold, while Ukraine had begun to depend more on the West.

On 13 June, RT news reported on the Russian Defence Ministry claim that Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses in two unsuccessful assaults near Artyomovsk. The attacks targeted Russian positions near Kleshceevka, resulting in the loss of 350 soldiers, two armored vehicles, and six others. Additionally, according to the report, Ukrainian offensives near the Vremevsky ledge and the settlements of Makarovka and Rovnopol were repelled by Russian forces, leading to the destruction of tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and other military equipment. Despite Ukraine's ongoing attempts to breach Russian defences as part of a counteroffensive, they have not achieved success thus far. Putin noted that Kyiv’s casualties were greater than expected during offensive operations.

On 13 June, TASS reported on a meeting between Putin and war correspondents. He was reported to have highlightedRussia's rearmament efforts over the past eight years, creating a strong foundation for the military. While acknowledging the need for more drones, he emphasized Russia's effective utilization of the ones available, particularly in countering Ukrainian tank attacks. Putin expressed the desire for improved quality and quantity of unmanned systems, as well as more effective means of counter-battery warfare as requested by soldiers on the frontline.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  
   
On 13 June, AP news reported on the announcement made by the US State Department. According to the report, the Pentagon would provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth up to USD 325 million, consisting of various rockets, missiles, and munitions. This support aims to strengthen Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia and will include critical air defence systems, armoured vehicles, and weaponry such as Stingers and Javelin missiles. The US has now committed nearly USD 40 billion in equipment and weapons to Ukraine since the Russian attack in February 2022, with this aid being swiftly delivered under presidential drawdown authority.

On 13 June, the European Commission and the European Investment Bank (EIB) reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with EUR 100 million in new loans for fast recovery, focusing on municipal and energy infrastructure repairs. This funding is made possible by an EU guarantee and is part of the EU for Ukraine (EU4U) Initiative, which includes the EU4 Ukraine Fund and a EUR 100 million technical assistance package from the EIB. The loans, to be signed later in 2023, will be disbursed upon Ukraine's request and will contribute to addressing the country's urgent recovery needs following Russia's aggression. The EU has provided substantial support to Ukraine, with a total of EUR 70 billion in assistance, including EUR 2.4 billion from the EIB backed by an EU guarantee.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War 

On 13 June, Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that his country had received some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons and asserted his willingness to use them in the event of aggression against Belarus. These statements contradict Russian President Vladimir Putin's earlier remarks, where he stated that Russian nuclear weapons would be deployed to Belarus but remain under Moscow's control. Putin had previously announced the planned deployment as a warning to the West amidst increased military support for Ukraine. Lukashenko confirmed that preparations for the weapons' deployment were complete and implied that they would be received shortly. He emphasized the power of the Russian nuclear weapons, which he claimed were three times more potent than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Lukashenko clarified that he would consult with Putin before using the weapons but expressed confidence in their coordination. Lukashenko justified the deployment as a deterrent against potential aggression and stated that Belarus was also preparing facilities for intercontinental nuclear-tipped missiles. 

References
Russian missile strike claims 10 civilians in Zelenskyy’s hometown,” efe.com, 13 June 2023
Dinara Khalilova, “Defense Ministry: Ukraine liberates 7 settlements, regains 90 square kilometers over past week,” The Kyiv Independent, 14 June 2023
Head of State met with IAEA Director General,” president.gov.ua, 13 June 2023
Here’s what Putin told journalists about Russia’s goals in Ukraine conflict,” RT news, 13 June 2023
Another Ukrainian offensive repelled near Artyomovsk – Moscow,” RT news, 13 June 2023
Russia still does not have enough drones — Putin,” TASS, 13 June 2023
Baldor and Matthew Lee, “US sending $325 million package of military aid to Ukraine,” AP news, 13 June 2023
New EU contribution for EIB's Ukraine support package to enable new lending of €100 million,” eeas.europa.eu, 13 June 2023
Leader of Belarus says he wouldn’t hesitate to use Russian nuclear weapons to repel aggression,” AP news, 13 June 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran, Melvin George and Prerana P

FRANCE
The Canua Floating Island project fails to achieve the permits
On 13 June, the Canua Island project was declared a failure due to various environmental concerns. The island project consisting of a restaurant, bar and pools, was secured at the port of La Seyne-sur-Mer in southeast France. The organisers declared that the government denied the permit, which states the project to be a “victim of a political vendetta”. The island project has invested over EUR 16 million. The government claimed the project was: “an artificial island” and warned about the negative impact of over-urbanisation and sea-plagued pollution. Further, the government declared the project to be unfit for environmental policy. (“French Riviera floating island project dropped over environmental concerns,” Le Monde, 13 June 2023)

ICELAND
A win for the LGBTQ+ community 
On 09 June, Iceland passed a bill that was tabled by a member of the Liberal Reform Party which will ban conversion therapy for the LGBTQ+ community. 53 members of the Parliament voted for the proposal. (Michael K. Lavers, “Iceland becomes latest country to ban conversion therapy,” Washington Blade, 12 June 2023)

ITALY
State mourns and pays last tribute for Silvio Berlusconi in Milan 
On 14 June, the State funeral for the Ex Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will be led by the Archbishop of Milan in the Cathedral of Milan. The day will be observed as a day of national mourning and all the European flags on public buildings will be lowered half-staff. The main square is presumed to be filled with thousands of people to pay the last tribute. The questions about the future of his business empire, its successors are looming around. Political instability in Forza Italia, the political party started by him will loom after the national mourning. (Sofia Bettiza, “Italy mourns and asks who will succeed Berlusconi,” BBC News, 14 June 2023)

NORTHERN IRELAND
June temperature hits highest in five years 
On 13 June, the Met Office announced that Northern Ireland is under heatwave conditions with temperatures exceeding 25 degree Celsius for the last three days. The office said that this happened in Antrim and Londonderry in the north-west. On the same day the temperature marked the highest in five years with 29 degree Celsius in Ballywatticock. Armag measured twenty eight degree Celsius followed by Magilligan with twenty seven degree Celsius marking the day as the hottest of the year. The forecast said that the temperature will be around mid twenties for the rest of the week or possibly even higher. (“Northern Ireland is officially experiencing a heatwave,” BBC News, 14 June 2023)

NORWAY 
Norway plans to dive into the Arctic waters for minerals
On 13 June, High North news reported that Norway is exploring the possibilities of deep-sea mining from the latitude of Bodo and the Norwegian Sea to Svalbard in the Barents Sea. The goal is the extraction of polymetallic nodules that contain copper, nickel, cobalt and other metals for use in the energy industry. The proposal has run into concerns from environmentalists and fishing communities even as the government assures that ocean life will not be harmed. However, the scientific community, including the European Academy of Sciences has flagged the harmful impacts of tampering with the sea floors. Further, due to the Svalbard Treaty, apart from Norway, European Union countries, Russia and the US could also stake claim to mining in the Arctic. Advocates for this proposal are of the view that Norway could become the headliner in sustainable deep-sea mining in the world. (“Norway Aims to Open Arctic Waters to Deep-Sea Mining,” High North News, 13 June 2023) 

TURKEY
Erdogan demands recognition of Northern Cyprus
On 12 June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came up with a two-state solution in Cyprus after he visited the northern Mediterranean. He explained the recognition of the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus as the primary solution. Northern Cyprus has a majority of Turkish Cypriots and Turkish settlers. Ankara is the only city which recognises Northern Cyprus, while the EU considers the entire part to itself. Erdogan said: “Turkish Cypriots have never been and never will be a minority.” Further, Turkey is a major regional contributor and holds a more significant military force in the Northern Cyprus region. Over 65 per cent approved the UN’s referendum to reunite the island, while Southern Cyprus consisting of Greek Cypriots, is against Turkey’s plan to divide the Mediterranean. (“Erdogan demands international recognition of northern Cyprus,” Euronews, 13 June 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE 
Climate activists got fined for damaging the statue in Vatican Museum
On 13 June, DW News reported that the Vatican City State Tribunal fined two climate activists from Ultima Generazione (Last Generation) for damaging the statue at the Vatican Museum. The activists were punished with a suspended prison sentence and fined EUR 30000 for glueing themselves to the base of the Laocoon statue. Another activist was slammed with a suspended sentence of EUR 120. The activist group accused the government of incentivising fossil fuel companies. (“Vatican court fines climate activists over museum protest,” Deutshce Welle, 13 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Impact of Air Defender 23 drills on major airports
On 13 June, Euronews reported the massive knock-on effect on busy airports, due to the Air Defender exercise. Around 800 flights will be rerouted over Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands. European nations have expressed their struggle to manage the post-pandemic air traffic and, French authorities have alerted on strike. Over 25 countries, including the US, have contributed 10,000 military personnel and 250 combat aircraft for the drill. Commercial pilots navigated the airspace into three directions: north, south and east, as these zones stay restricted for civilian airlines. The busiest airports like London’s Heathrow and Gatwick are highly affected. Luftwaffe chief reminded peace and freedom to be the main objective behind the drill. Further, General Gerhartz emphasises: “This exercise is not directed against anyone,” and promised to finish it before the summer holidays. (“Flight delayed” A show of NATO’s military might over Germany could be behind it,” Euronews, 13 June 2023).

Amnesty International reproaches Finland’s healthcare sector
On 13 June, Helsinki Times reported that in an extensively researched report titled “Tiedan etten saa apua” (I know I won’t receive help), Amnesty International has spotlighted the healthcare inequality in Finland. Finland has a double layered healthcare system. People who use public healthcare services face problems such as long waiting hours, failed appointments and quick digitalization due to the COVID pandemic. However, economically well-off individuals have the means to access private healthcare options. This inequitable access to healthcare has led to social distrust in the country. Finland has been reducing funds to the healthcare sector since the 1990s. This coupled with the decrease in resources and healthcare professionals has pushed international human rights organizations to urge the country to take quick remedies. (“Amnesty International report highlights health inequality and lack of access to healthcare in Finland,” Helsinki Times, 13 June 2023)

Scraping veto can cause negative impact on smaller nations
On 13 June, Euronews reported on whether the EU would move from unanimity to a qualified majority. Putin’s decision to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine has often united the bloc’s 27 member states causing embarrassment to Brussels. The reason for the malfunction includes the unanimity voting rule policy of the EU granting the nation a unique veto power. Defenders claim that the veto acts as a shield for smaller countries. Strengthen democratic ties and negotiations. In contrast, the critics claim veto power has hindered their decision-making authority. A classic event, the Treaty of Lisbon reinforced the unanimity rule in foreign policy, taxation and budget. Member nations like Hungary deliberately used veto power to protect their national and economic interests. Thus, scraping off the veto power can affect various member nations. (Jorge Liboreiro, “The EU has the tools to move from unanimity to qualified majority. But it’s a classic Catch-22,” Euronews, 13 June 2023)


13 June 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #541

War in Ukraine: Day 474

NATOs biggest air drills begin in Germany

Photo : Nato.int


War in Ukraine: Day 474
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 11 June, a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda said: "If Russia controlled the sky, we probably wouldn't have our country by now." He discussed why Russia's missile strikes are continuing, and the usage of Telegram by military personnel and politicians. He said that because of the inefficiency of sanctions Russia is able to acquire and manufacture missiles. He stated: "The air defence systems our partners have given us are not sufficient." According to him, the current air defense systems mostly consist of Soviet systems and even with the addition of new ones, they would not be sufficient in the long term..

On 12 June, the head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration reported in Telegram that a Mavic drone purchased from UNITED24 destroyed two VSAT antennas. The antennas were used by Russian troops for communication on the Svatore-Kupiansk front. The same was reported by the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Federov in Telegram.

On 12 June, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian troops have the control of Storozheve village. According to ABS-CBN, Ukrainian flags were raised in Blahodatne and Neskuchne villages and advances had been made in the Makarivka region. Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced that training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 jets will begin within six months, reported Reuters, quoted ABS-CBN. 

On 12 June, according to The Guardian, the IAEA's Director General Rafael Grossi expressed concerns over the discrepancy in the water levels in the Kakhovka dam. Grossi said: "The height is reportedly continuing to fall elsewhere in the huge reservoir, causing a possible difference of about 2 metres." He said that the discrepancy can be a consequence of measuring the water levels of a water body that is isolated from the dam. He added that it may complicate the supply of water to cool the six reactors in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.  

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 June, according to lenta.ru, the Russian Defence Ministry signed a contract with Akhmat Special Forces, a volunteer unit, over the activities in the NVO zone. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that Russian Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel General Alexei Kim and Russian Special Forces University's director Adam Dashaev signed the contract. The contract follows the order of the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu which urged the volunteer units to sign an agreement with the Defence Ministry for efficiency.

On 12 June, according to lenta.ru, the chairman of "We are Together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov, Russian troops supported by the Russian Aerospace Force undertook a counterattack in Zaporizhzhia's Vremensky ledge and in Makarivka. 

On 12 June, according to TASS, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a hospital in Krasnogorsk. Putin spoke with the Russian soldiers in the Vishnevsky Central Military Clinical Hospital and presented awards. He also met with the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in the hospital. 

On 12 June, according to TASS, a Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov reported that the Russian troops attacked the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Konashenkov added that sea-based long precision weapons were used the night before to destroy the reserves. He said that the Russian troops killed Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kupyansk. He stated that Akatsiya and Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mounts in Krasnolymansk, and the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in Dnepropetrovsk were destroyed.

The West View      
Responses from the US and Europe

On 12 June, Allied air forces began the "Air Defender" exercise, hosted and led by Germany. It is the largest deployment exercise in NATO's history, and 25 nations will participate in the two-week exercise. It will go on until 23 June. NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said: "Air Defender is necessary because we live in a more dangerous world. As we face the biggest security crisis in a generation, we stand united to keep our countries and our people safe."

On 12 June, Euractiv reported that talks of the Defence Contact Group of Ukraine, also known as the Ramstein Format group, will happen on 15 June. The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Denmark, the US and other countries will participate in the talks, according to Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov. He also said in Telegram that they are only talking about training the pilots, technicians and engineers who would be responsible for the service now, quotes Euracitv

On 12 June, Reuters reported Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren's comment that Ukrainian pilots could start training to fly F-16 jets as soon as this summer as part of the international jet coalition. She added that the training programme would be fully operational within six months. According to Reuters, Ollongren also said that the final decision has not been taken yet to supply F-16s to Ukraine.

On 12 June, Financial Times reported that French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda met at Élysée Palace to project unity in support of Ukraine for its counter-offensive against Russian forces. The three leaders pledged support for Ukraine as long as it takes while the Western powers work on "security guarantees" to shore up its defences and ensure its sovereign future. 

The Global Fallouts      
Implications of the War 

On 11 June, the first cargo of discounted Russian crude oil under a new deal between Islamabad and Moscow arrived in Karachi, said Dawn. Pakistan State Minister for Petroleum Musadik Malik did not disclose any specific details of the deal but said the payment was made in Chinese currency, according to Dawn. The purchase consisted of 100,000 tonnes and 45,000 tonnes reached Karachi port. 

On 12 June, North Korea’s state media KCNA reported on Kim Jong Un’s announcement to support Russia in full solidarity. He assured to boost strategic cooperation with Russia to help preserve sovereign rights. He said: “Justice is sure to win and the Russian people will continue to add glory to the history of victory.” The move comes as North Korea accuses the West for its “hegemonic policy.”

References
Sofia Sereda, "Spokesman for Ukraine's Air Force: If we had surrendered the sky, the entire country would look like Mariupol or Bakhmut," Ukrainska Pravda, 11 June 2023
Tetiana Lozovenko, "Ukrainian drone destroys Russian satellite communication system: Ministry of Digital Transformation shows video," Ukrainska Pravda, 12 June 2023
"Kyiv claims first counteroffensive gains," ABS-CBN, 13 June 2023
"UN concerned by 'discrepancy' in Ukraine nuclear plant water levels after dam collapse," The Guardian,12 June 2023
"The Ministry of Defense signed the first contract with the Akhmat detachment," lenta.ru, 12 June 2023
"The Russian military launched a counterattack in the Zaporozhye region," lenta.ru, 12 Juune 2023
"Putin visits military hospital near Moscow, meets soldiers," TASS, 12 June 2023
"Russian forces attack positions of reserves of Armed Forces of Ukraine," TASS, 12 June 2023
Alexandra Brzozowski, "Ukraine looks for fighter jet coalition, repair hubs in Ramstein talks," Euracitv, 12 June 2023
"Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces," nato.int, 12 June 2023
"Exclusive: Coalition aims to begin Ukrainian F-16 pilot training by summer - Dutch minister," Reuters, 12 June 2023
Henry Foy, Leila Abboud, Felicia Schwartz, "France, Germany and Poland vow long-term support for Ukraine," Financial Times, 13 June 2023
"Pakistan's Russian crude shipment paid in Chinese currency: minister," Dawn, 12 June 2023
"Kim Jong Un Extends' Full Support' To Russia Amid Ukraine War As North Korea Seeks To Forge Closer Ties," ABP News, 12 June 2023


Europe in Brief
By Prerana P and Melvin George

MONTENEGRO
Pro-EU party (PES) dominates the parliamentary election
On 12 June, Euronews reported the unofficial result of the nation's Parliamentary election, with Montenegro's Europe Now Movement (PES) has won 25.6 per cent of the vote. The 36 year old leader, Milojko Spajic, stated: "Tomorrow is a new day." He also expressed his willingness to strengthen ties with nations possessing similar ideologies. The pro-European Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) came second, with Milo Djukanovic, who has taken a back seat. ("Montenegro's pro-EU party wins election, initial results show," Euronews, 12 June 2023)

POLAND
Appeal to the Court of Justice of EU
On 12 June, Politico reported on the Climate Minister of Poland Anna Moskwa's claim on Poland overturning the EU's combustion engine and climate laws. She further declared that the country would take the appeal of many Fit for 55 documents to the Court of Justice of the EU. Poland, along with Germany, sought to block the clean car sales mandate. But Warsaw banned the sales of polluting vehicles. The government stated its discomfort as they witnessed Green Deal chief's inability to engage with Warsaw's opposition. Regarding the issue, the spokesperson for the Commission stated that Europe is awaiting Poland's decision following the release of the judgement by the European Court of Justice. (Zia Weise and Joshua Posaner, "Poland to challenge EU climate laws before top court," Politico, 12 June 2023)

ROMANIA
PM resigns as per the rotating premiership deal
On 12 June, Romanian Prime Minister Nicola Ciucu resigned as part of a rotating premiership deal among the ruling coalition parties. The coalition was formed between Ciucu's centre-right liberals, Social Democrats (PSD) and ethnic Hungarian UDMR in late 2021. It is widely expected that Marcel Ciolacu would be the next Prime Minister. Ciucu said : "Our objective is to have a new government sworn in by Thursday, so that we can continue ... to handle the priorities." The new cabinet is expected to face the increase in salaries in the public sector and pressure to implement the delayed EU economic reforms for the recovery funds. The consolidated budget deficit of Romania has to be brought below the three per cent ceiling of the EU before the elections that are going to happen in 2024. ("Romanian PM Ciuca resigns in power swap agreed by ruling coalition," Reuters, 12 June 2023)

SCOTLAND
No reason to suspend Sturgeon's membership: First Minister of Scotland
On 12 June, Reuters reported that Scotland's First Minister Hamza Yousuf said that he saw no reason to suspend the membership of Nicola Sturgeon. The report says that he has been receiving calls from his senior party members and rival politicians to suspend her. She was released on 11 June after being arrested as a part of police investigation to track down EUR 600,000 raised by Scottish independence campaigners. Sturgeon's husband, Peter Murrel, who was the former chief executive, and former treasurer of Scottish National Party (SNP) also got released without charge but the investigation continues. The Labour Party, which constitutes the largest opposition in the British Parliament believes that they would be able to make use of this to acquire seats in Scotland in the next year's UK election. ("Scotland's leader won't suspend Nicola Sturgeon from party after arrest," Reuters, 12 June 2023)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak rejects Boris Johnson's plea to overrule HOLAC committee
On 12 June, Reuters reported PM Rishi Sunak rejected Boris Johnson's plea to overrule an HOLAC committee (House of Lords Appointments Commission) and allow some of his nominees to the upper chamber of the parliament. The PM said: "Boris Johnson asked me to do something that I wasn't prepared to do, because I didn't think it was right." The HOLAC committee is an independent body that was constituted in order to screen the list of members to the House of Lords, nominated by the former PM who receives an honorary lifetime seat in the same when he steps down. The final list published on Friday did not include Johnson's nominees. Johnson said : "To honour these peerages it was not necessary to overrule HOLAC - but simply to ask them to renew their vetting, which was a mere formality." (Sachin Ravikumar, "UK's Sunak faces down critics after Boris Johnson honours row," Reuters, 12 June 2023)

REGIONAL
UK's Revocation and Reform Bill can revoke EU laws
On 12 June 2023, Euronews reported on the UK government's new law, the Retained EU Law Bill, might enable lawmakers to cancel specific EU laws of the UK statute books. However, thousands of EU laws will automatically expire on 31 December 2023. The government has published around 600 EU laws which could suit the bill. The relationship between Brussels and London has enhanced after the Northern Ireland Protocol. Brussels has been following the evolution of the newly Retained EU law, alerting the UK of its negative impact on trade as a countereffect. Britain's Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, claims the EU-UK relationship as a: "much-valued ally and friend". He accepts UK's laws but reminds the government of the added consequences that could impact the relationship. (Alice Tidey, "UK bill to revoke EU laws could have 'negative impact on trade', Brussels warns," Euronews, 12 June 2023)

ECONOMY
Investments in USD reduced but have weightage for some government bonds: says Andrew Balls 
On 12 June, chief investment officer Andrew Balls said that the American investment management firm PIMCO is having less than the desirable investment in the US dollar and more weightage in investments in some of the UK government bonds. The dollar index stands virtually unchanged and gained eight per cent last year, along with the sharp rise in interest rates in the US. Unlike what was expected, the slow fall in inflation has been persuading traders to raise their stakes in investments as the Bank of England. Increases the rates. He said: "We tend to be neutral and in some of our portfolios are a little bit overweight in the UK. It looks like there is value when we compare the UK with the US or with Europe." The former Federal Reserve vice chair and the current economic advisor at PIMCO, Richard Clarida said that the central bank would struggle to bring to the two per cent inflation targets because of supply shocks the country is facing which would in turn reduce the policy support from the central banks. (Harry Robertson, "PIMCO's bond CIO says underweight dollar, sees value in UK gilts," Reuters, 13 June 2023) 


12 June 2023 | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #540

War in Ukraine: Day 472 & 473

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met in Kyiv

Photo : president.gov.ua


War in Ukraine: Day 472 & 473

Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 09 June, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths provided a three-step plan to provide humanitarian aid to Ukrainians who have encountered more than a year of war. The plan aims to get the Ukrainians to safety and provide emergency assistance and life-saving supplies. The first phase of dispatching the aid to Ukrainians in Kherson and indulging in search and rescue operations in flood-hit areas began on 08 June. The next phase includes providing drinking water to 700,000 Ukrainians who lack water. The third phase of humanitarian aid is yet to be discussed based on the future consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction.

On 10 June, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met in Kyiv and signed a joint declaration. According to the declaration, both countries stated that Russia should withdraw its troops from Ukraine. The declaration expressed Canada’s support for Ukraine in international forums and affirmed that it will provide aid and assistance. The declaration remarked that Canada acknowledges Ukraine’s peace formula. The declaration said that both countries will ease the devastating results of the war including food price hikes, and to fight against impunity. 

On 11 June, Ukrinform reported according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural resource of Ukraine, the Kakhovka dam lost around 70 per cent of the water. Dnipro River’s water level has dropped to 4.2 metres. 

The Moscow View
On 09 June, according to RT, Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko that the tactical nuclear weapons will be deployed by July 2023. 

On 09 June, according to Tehran Times, post the Eurasian Economic Union meeting in Sochi Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “We can clearly say the offensive has started, as indicated by the Ukrainian army’s use of strategic reserves, but the Ukrainian troops haven’t achieved their stated tasks in a single area of fighting.” Putin added that the Ukrainian troops were unsuccessful.

On 10 June, according to RT, the head of the government of Kerson Andrey Alekseenko reported that reparations for the Kakhohvka dam will cost USD 138 million. He said that houses affected by the floods are being inspected, and rescue operations are being undertaken. 

On 11 June, according to RT, the Russian defence ministry reported that 94 Russian soldiers have been swapped for 95 Ukrainian soldiers who were involved in the battle of Bakhmut. The ministry added that the Russian soldiers were in imminent danger under Ukrainian custody, according to the Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova. The Russian soldiers will be sent for rehabilitation in medical establishments.

On 11 June, according to RTE, Wagner Group's head Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that he will not sign any agreement with the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to the ministry, Shoigu urged the “volunteer detachments” to sign a deal with the Defence Ministry for efficient manoeuvres before 01 July. Prigozhin commented: “Shoigu cannot properly manage military formations. What could happen after this order is that they will not give us weapons and ammunition. We will figure it out, as they say. What could happen after this order is that they will not give us weapons and ammunition.” 

The West View
On 11 June, the UK’s Ministry of Defence, in its daily intelligence update, remarked on the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam and its repercussions in Crimea. The dam collapse has severely disrupted Crimea’s primary source of fresh water, the North Crimean Canal (NCC). The water level likely dropped, and water would soon stop flowing to Crimea. The update further read that Russian authorities would meet the immediate water requirements of the people by using reservoirs, water rationing, drilling new wells, and delivering bottled water from Russia. 

On 10 June, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit. In the joint press conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Counteroffensive and defensive actions are taking place in Ukraine; at which stage I will talk in detail.” Trudeau pledged around USD 375 million in new military aid. According to a statement released during the visit, Politico quotes, “Canada supports Ukraine to become a NATO member as soon as conditions allow for it.”

On 10 June, Wall Street Journal, in an article, conveyed that German investigators are examining evidence that suggests a sabotage team used Poland, a European Union neighbour and NATO ally, as an operating base to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines. Investigators first found the yacht following an October tip from a Western intelligence service. The probe has turned to clues inside Poland, which could further strain the relationship between Poland and Germany. German officials have no evidence of Poland's government involvement in the attack. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continuously denied any involvement in the Nord Stream attacks. On 07 June, Zelenskyy again reaffirmed that neither the Ukrainian military nor the intelligence did it. 

The Global Fallouts
On 09 June, Kyodo News reported that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida promised Zelenskyy USD five million in support following the Kakhovka dam collapse. 

On 08 June, according to Reuters, Taiwan-based computer manufacturer Acer supplied computer hardware worth USD 70.4 million to Russia between 08 April 2022 and 31 Mach 2023. The supply was through Acer’s subsidiary in Switzerland and several delivery services by order of that subsidiary, says Reuters. Acer did not clarify why it continued shipping its goods to Russia despite saying it would suspend business in April 2022. 

References
Joint Declaration by Ukraine and Canada,” president.gov.ua, 10 June 2023
"We stand by you’ declares UN relief chief, outlining emergency plan for Ukraine dam disaster,” United Nations, 09 June 2023
Kakhovka Reservoir shallowed by 70%,” Ukriinform, 11 June 2023
White House reacts to Russian nuclear move,” RT, 10 June 2023
Putin: Ukraine counter-offensive has ‘begun’,” Tehran Times, 11 June 2023
Kherson authorities estimate financial cost of dam destruction,” RT, 10 June 2023
Russia brings nearly 100 soldiers home in latest prisoner swap,” RT, 11 June 2023
Wagner 'will not sign any contract' with Russian defence minister,”  RTE, 12 June 2023
Bojan Pancevski, Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson, “Nord Stream Sabotage Probe Turns to Clues Inside Poland,” The Wall Street Journal, 10 June 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 11 June 2023," Twitter, 11 June 2023
Jones Hayden, “Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says ‘counteroffensive and defensive actions’ under way against Russia," Politico.eu, 11 June 2023
Japan PM vows $5 mil. in support after Ukraine dam collapse: gov't,” Kyodo News, 09 June 2023
Filipp Lebedev and Gleb Stolyarov, “Exclusive: Taiwan's Acer ships computer hardware to Russia after saying it would suspend business,” Reuters, 08 June 2023


EM Daily Brief

By Prerana P and Melvin George

MONTENEGRO
Unofficial result puts forth the victory of pro-EU leader Jakov Milatovic
On 11 June, Montenegro witnessed an unofficial result of an early parliamentary election. According to the Centre for Democratic Transition, the party named Europe Now Movement (PES), led by current President Jakov Milatovic won 26 per cent of the vote. He had been projected on top by pre-election polls. The President assured to root out the corruption in the nation. Montenegro is one of the candidates to join the EU, but the contamination of corruption, nepotism and crime has delayed the progress. The further proceedings of the election were closely followed, hoping the small NATO member in the Balkans would move closer to EU membership. Milatovic, a 36-year-old, entered politics in 2020 after the completion of his studies in the United States and the United Kingdom. The victory of first parliamentary victory conducted after 30 years paved the way for hope and a better future. (“Montenegro: Pollsters put pro-EU party ahead in snap vote,” Deutsche Welle, 12 June 2023)

SCOTLAND
Allegations raise against Former Minister Nicola Sturgeon
On 12 June, former Minister Nicola Sturgeon was arrested, stating allegations of mishandling Scottish National Party (SNP) funds. Her Husband, former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell was also arrested after her release. The investigation states that the party money has been misused. More than EUR 1,00,000 was found parked in Murrell’s mother’s house. The Party’s treasurer was questioned regarding the same. There have been several allegations regarding any connection with the sudden resignation of Sturgeon and the current enquiry. (Andrew Naughtie, “Scotland: Former first minister Nicola Sturgeon arrested then released in police corruption probe,” Euronews, 12 June 2023)

THE UK
UK’s Digital Trade Network sets off with investments from the APAC
On June 12, a press release from the UK government reported the Asia Pacific (APAC) investors delegation to London Tech Week planning to pitch in EUR 100 billion into British tech firms. This is an expansion of the UK's Digital Trade Network (DTN) that would bring firms that work with fintech, clean tech, life sciences and Artificial Intelligence and others. Minister for Investment Lord Johnson said : “Just weeks after successfully negotiating our biggest post-Brexit trade deal with the CPTPP, we are seeing huge interest from investors in the region, with millions of pounds being invested into world-leading British tech.” Many APAC tech firms are shifting their Headquarters to the UK which includes Japanese startups Datagusto, Qufooit and booking platform Enrolmy in New Zealand. According to the new contract between UK and Oxfordshire-based Intralink to lead the new UK-APAC Tech Growth Programme. DTN will expand to Taiwan and Vietnam to ensure digital tech expertise from the region and market access, digital trading systems for the UK exporters. (“Asia Pacific investors set to pour millions into UK Tech after biggest post-Brexit trade deal,” Gov.uk, 12 June 2023)

REGIONAL
EU offers loan to Tunisia to help in its development
On 11 June, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a loan worth EUR 1 billion during a visit to Tunisia. The EU wanted to help the nation develop its shattered economy and rescue it from the financial crisis. President Kais Saied has rejected the proposal urging that the IMF should review the bailout. The fact lies that the IMF deal could take months to negotiate into action. EU is ready to provide EUR 150 million to reform the Tunisian year agenda. The Tunisian President claims that the partnership with the EU will combat illegal migration. The Prime Minister of Italy recommended expanding opportunities for young Tunisians and working in developing skills to help the economy. (“EU considering major Tunisia aid package as migration surges,” Reuters, 12 June 2023)


07 June 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #536

War in Ukraine: Day 468

Europe and the UN condemns Russia on destruction of Kakhovka dam

Photo : Deutsch Welle


War in Ukraine: Day 468
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 06 June, responding to the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the disaster would not stop the country and its people. He said: "We will still liberate all our land. And each Russian act of terrorism increases only the amount of reparations that Russia will pay for its crimes, not the chances of the occupiers to stay on our land." He also stated that the government is doing everything to help those affected by the dam catastrophe. 

On 06 June, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the dam destruction, describing it as: "monumental, humanitarian, economic and environmental catastrophe." The UN Office tweeted that thousands of people are in peril following the disaster. Guterres also called the disaster another devastating consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to IAEA, damage to the dam significantly reduced the reservoir level that supplies cooling water to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. It reported no immediate risks and said the supply would last a few days. The IAEA chief Rafael Grossi confirmed that a "large cooling pond" next to the nuclear power plant could provide an alternative water source and said it is vital to protect it. The UN human rights office called for a full investigation into the disaster and accountability. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 June, according to TASS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during his visit to a Russian military base in Tajikistan, said: "Anything can be expected from the leaders of the US and other Western countries (which Washington has completely subjugated). They are already proving this when, following advanced long-range weapons and tanks, they are now seriously preparing F-16s." He urged the Russian Armed Forces to be cautious as one variant of the F-16 is capable of carrying nuclear weapons.. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 06 June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg condemned Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam. In a press conference after the Bucharest Nine (B9) summit, he said: "This is an outrageous act, which demonstrates once again the brutality of Russia's war against Ukraine." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz commented that setbacks the Russian troops have faced have led them to act aggressively. The EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell and Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarcic in a joint statement said that Russia has violated International Laws. They said: "It represents a new dimension of Russian atrocities and may constitute a violation of international law, notably international humanitarian law." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the destruction, "largest technological disaster in decades."

On 07 June, the Finnish government announced that it would expel nine Russian diplomats on spying charges. The government claimed that the diplomats were spying for Moscow and added that it was a violation of the Vienna Convention.

The Global Fallouts     
Implications of the War 

On 05 June, South African President Cyril Ramphosa announced that the African leaders are ready to commence the mediation process between Russia and Ukraine in mid-June. The African leaders from Congo-Brazzaville, Egypt, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia and South Africa met virtually to discuss the mediation process. Ramphosa said: "We will be able to give our own point of view as Africans on how we perceive the impact of this war on Africa in terms of food prices, grain, and fuel prices, as well as on Europe and the rest of the world because it has become a rather globalized type of conflict."   

References
"The disaster at the Kakhovka HPP caused by Russian terrorists will not stop Ukraine and Ukrainians – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy," president.gov.ua, 06 June 2023
"Ukraine: Dam destruction 'monumental humanitarian, economic and ecological catastrophe': Guterres," new.un.org, 06 June 2023)
"Russia is mindful of F-16 capability to carry nuclear weapons — Lavrov," TASS, 06 June 2023)
"Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam," United States Mission to the United Nations, 06 June 2023
Nicolaus Camut, "Finland expels 9 Russian diplomats suspected of spying," Politico.eu, 07 June 2023
Nicolaus Camut, Gabriel Rinaldi, and Lili Bayer, "Western leaders accuse Russia of war crime over dam destruction," Politico.eu, 06 June 2023
"African leaders ready for mediation in Russia and Ukraine," Africa News, 06 June 2023


In Brief
By Prerana P and Melvin George

FINLAND
Nine Russian diplomats expelled for spying
On 06 June, Guildhall reported that the Finnish government had expelled nine employees of the Russian embassy over spying activities. Norway and Sweden claimed a similar issue and fired the Russian diplomats. Further, Moscow expelled Norwegian and Swedish diplomats and blocked the bank accounts of the Finnish Embassy in Moscow and the Consulate General in St. Petersburg. ("Finland expels nine Russian diplomats for espionage," Guildhall, 06 June 2023).

KOSOVO
Kosovo may conduct fresh elections in Serb Majority municipalities following the unrest
On 06 June, Kosovo's Foreign Minister Donika Gervalla-Schwarz said that Kosovo might conduct fresh elections in the Serb majority municipalities. This announcement came after the disputes over the placement of ethnic Albanian mayors in municipalities offices elected with just a 3.5 per cent turnout. She said that there is a need for peace in the region for conducting new elections and called for "a commitment from Serbia that they will no more threaten Serbian citizens of Kosovo not to participate in the election." ("Kosovo open to new elections in municipalities hit by unrest, minister says," Reuters, 07 June 2023)

NORWAY
One billion for the children's protection
On 06 June, Government.no reported Norway's initiative to invest NOK 01 billion in the Protection of Children in armed conflict over the next three years. Norway organized an international conference, "Protecting Children in Armed Conflict- Our Common Future," along with UNICEF, African Union (AU), ICRS, and Save the Children International. The conference included leaders from the above organizations. It aimed to strengthen and develop multi-year partnerships and mobilise actions for future actions. The meeting also included Norway's Humanitarian Strategy to widen the protection of civilian children in the region. ("Norway pledges NOK 1 billion for protection of children in armed conflict," Government.no, 06 June 2023).

TURKEY
New economically liberal and socially conservative cabinet
On 05 June, the Turkish cabinet met to discuss the economy, combating terrorism and Sweden's NATO entry as the major agenda. The cabinet has eighteen ministers with all new ones except for the Ministries of Health, Culture and Tourism. Le Monde reported that "The new line-up is economically liberal and socially conservative, in keeping with previous governments." Ibrahim Kalin, the president's former diplomatic adviser, has been appointed as the head of Turkish intelligence. Mehemet Simsek is the Treasury and Finance Minister who will be responsible for pulling out Turkey from the economic crisis. ( Angele Pierre, ("Turkey's Erdogan weighs up a more orthodox monetary policy," Lemonde, 06 June 2023)

REGIONAL
EU will discuss on asylum rules on 08 June, says EU migration commissioner
On 06 June, EU migration commissioner, Ylva Johansson said that the EU countries would agree on how to share the responsibility of hosting the refugees and migrants. The meeting with home affairs ministers of the union, which is going to happen on 08 June would take part in the EU asylum rules that got broken in 2015 due to the inflow of Syrian refugees. The overarching question is whether all EU countries host the people as demanded by the southern and western states or the eatery's states could provide personnel and finance instead. Charity Oxfam criticised the plan saying: "These proposals will not fix the chronic deficiencies in the EU asylum system. Instead, they signal the EU's desire to barricade Europe from asylum-seekers." ("Gabriela Baczynska, "Breakthrough on stalled EU migration deal coming this week - official," Reuters, 07 June 2023)

EU concerned about potential Austrian politician's victory 
On 06 June, Guildhall reported the concern of the EU regarding the chances of an Austrian politician's victory in the upcoming election. During his campaign speech, the Austrian Politician Herbert Kickl expresses his interest in turning Austria into a second Hungary. His victory in the forthcoming election, along with the forces in Slovakia and Austria can give the Russian President a tool to oppress Ukraine by undermining the sanctions. Europe officially declared the issue to be a "disaster" and alerted the Social Democrats in Austria to stop fights among themselves and focus on strengthening the bond between each other. ("EU worries about growing popularity of pro-Russian populists in Austria and Slovakia," Guildhall, 06 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
France to downsize its military in Africa
On 06 June, Le Monde reported that Paris is going to downsize the military in Africa. This decision comes three months after French President Emmanuel Macron's speech on 28 February which outlined the plan and termination of Operation Barkhane in West Africa last December. This will be implemented first at the Abidjan base in Côte d'Ivoire, then Dakar, Senegal, and Libreville, Gabon. Military in Djibouti will not be affected. Withdrawal from some of these places would take place by the end of this year. (Elise Vincent "France will further cut back military presence in Africa," Lemonde, 06 June 2023)

The OECD Ministerial meeting held to focus on Securing a Resilient Future
On 06 June, The Federal Council reported about the upcoming Ministerial Meeting 2023, held from 07 June to 08 June in Paris, chaired by the British Foreign Secretary James Clevery. The Conference will be attended by 38 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), EU and partner nations to discuss the ultimate motto of the meeting, "Securing a Resilient Future: Shared Values and Global Partnerships." Additional topics include economic, political and social challenges, Russia's military aggression over Ukraine and the intention to foster stronger ties and values. The Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal will attend the meeting to discuss the ongoing conflict and to combat corruption. OECD nations have expressed their interest in expanding their partnership with the Indo-Pacific region. The Conference will be followed by two informal WTO ministerial meetings to be held next year in Abu Dabi. ("OECD ministerial meeting on economic resilience," The Federal Council, 06 June 2023).


05 June 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #534

War in Ukraine: Day 465 & 466 | Russia claims taking down HIMARS and storm shadow missiles in Donbas

Unidentified balloon falls near Polish military unit; Protests in Stockholm challenge Sweden's NATO bid

Photo : Eurasian Times


War in Ukraine: Day 465 & 466
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 03 June, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk in a meeting with the ministers from Donetsk and Luhansk discussed on reintegration of de-occupied territories. During the meeting, Vereshchuk said: “Donetsk and Luhansk are the regions most affected by Russian aggression. Therefore, one of the key tasks will be the restoration of critical infrastructure.” 

On 03 June, the Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesperson reported on airstrikes, and clashes in Luhansk and Donetsk. According to the report Bakhmut Russian forces had launched offensives in Ivanivske but made no advances, while shelling and airstrikes were reported in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

On 04 June, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov had a bilateral meeting with Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada at the Shangri-La Dialogue defence summit in Singapore. During the summit on 02 June, Reznikov accused Russia of being imperialist and asserted that Bakhmut is not under Russia's control. Hamada said: “Japan supports Ukraine in its battle to defend freedom and democracy. Our friendship and cooperation will contribute to global peace and stability.” Reznikov dismissed the peace proposal proposed by the Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto. He said that it seemed like a Russian plan and not an Indonesian plan. 

On 02 June, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi issued a statement on the vulnerability of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. He presented five concrete principles to the UNSC to safeguard the facility during the conflict. He said: “These principles are to no one’s detriment and everyone’s benefit.” He also added that Russia and Ukraine expressed their willingness to ensure nuclear safety and security.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 03 June, according to Sputnik, the Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s offer to conduct a Ukraine Peace Summit in Paris. He said: “France cannot do it anymore because France is a de facto active participant in the conflict and has sided with Ukraine.”

On 04 June, RT News reported on Crimian leader Sergey Aksyonov on the drone strike. According to him Russia had shot down five drones and four had forcefully landed using electronic warfare. He added that one of the drones crashed in Dzhankoy. 

On 04 June, RT reported on Russia’s Defence Ministry claims on missile attacks. According to the report, airstrikes were conducted on Ukrainian military airfields using long-range precision-guided air-launched missiles. In a statement from the ministry: “Command posts, a radar installation, Ukrainian aviation equipment, and storage facilities with weapons and ammunition were hit.” The ministry also claimed to have shot down missiles such as storm shadow missiles, and rockets from HIMARS in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe   
 
On 02 June, the Lithuanian Parliament hosted a meeting of representatives of the Parliaments of the NATO countries, Sweden and Ukraine to discuss the challenges the alliance face. Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament Viktoria Cmilyte-Nielsen commented that the representatives are convinced that NATO countries should increase spending for the defence system and accept Ukraine. 

On 02 June, Ukrinform reported on a bilateral meeting between Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Estonian President Alar Karis in Kyiv. Estonia was the first to start practical reconstruction projects in Ukraine. He acknowledged the first steps of reconstruction by Estonia and noted its leadership in developing a national mechanism to confiscate Russian assets to allocate them for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. 

On 03 June, UK's Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update confirmed Russia’s continued deployment of VDV (airborne forces) in Bakhmut as the Wagner group completed its withdrawal to rear areas. On 04 June, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas during her speech at Shangri-La Dialogue said that: “NATO does not threaten Russia’s security, but Russian Imperialism.” 

The Global Fallouts      
Implications of the War 

On 03 June, Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto proposed a Russia-Ukraine peace plan and called for a ceasefire. He urged United Nations to conduct a referendum on people living in the demilitarized zones and to deploy a peacekeeping force to stop the conflict. He also added that Indonesia is willing to be the first country to join the peacekeeping force. 

References
Russians shell Sumy region 10 times on Saturday,” Ukrinform, 03 June 2023
Berdyansk city military administration,” Telegram, 03 June 2023
Ministry of Reintegration,” Telegram, 03 June 2023
Comment of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine regarding the incorrect designation of the map of Ukraine on the media resource of the government of Hungary,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, 03 June 2023
War update: Ukraine’s Air Force launches 15 strikes on enemy positions,” Ukrinform, 03 June 2023
Reznikov discusses cooperation with Japan’s colleague, invites him to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 04 June 2023
Darrelle Ng, “Ukraine’s defence minister slams Russian 'imperialism', says Bakhmut remains under Kyiv’s control,” CNA, 03 June 2023
Defense Minister Reznikov brushes off Indonesia’s “peace plan”,” Ukrinform, 04 June 2023
Several drones tried to attack Crimea – local leader,” RT News, 04 June 2023
Russia strikes Ukrainian airfields – Defense Ministry,” RT News, 04 June 2023
Russian Solntsepyok Flamethrowers Hit Kiev Militants,” Sputnik, 04 June 2023
Kremlin Says France Cannot Mediate in Ukraine Conflict,” Sputnik, 04 June 2023
Ukrainian Airfield Hit in Overnight Russian Missile Attack,” Kyiv Post, 04 June 2023
Lukas Juozapitis, “Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament: members of NATO parliaments see Ukraine as part of the Alliance,” m.delfi.lt, 03 June 2023
Estonia first to launch reconstruction projects in Ukraine - PM Shmyhal,” Ukrinform, 05 June 2023
Update 160 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 02 June 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 03 June 2023,” Twitter, 03 June 2023
Kaya Kallas in Singapore: NATO does not threaten Russia's security, but Russian imperialism,” russ.err.ee, 04 June 2023
Shofi Ayudiana, “Russia-Ukraine conflict: Indonesia proposes ceasefire, UN referendum,” Antara News, 03 June 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

POLAND
Massive protests marks the anniversary of first postwar democratic election
On 04 June, in Warsaw, hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered to commemorate Poland's first postwar democratic election in 1989. They expressed opposition against the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), which critics claim is leading the country towards autocracy. Poland’s first popularly elected president of Poland, Lech Walesa, addressed the crowd, calling out PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. The local government estimated that around 500,000 people participated in the protest. (“Poland opposition stages major anti-government protest,” Deutsche Welle, 04 June 2023)
 
Unidentified balloon falls near Polish military unit
On 04 June, Guildhall reported that a balloon, potentially for reconnaissance or meteorological purposes, landed in Poland's Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship near a military training ground. Experts are examining its intended tasks. The discovery was promptly reported by a local resident to the police and military authorities. Poland's radar systems did not detect the balloon, raising suspicions of possible espionage. The device bore Cyrillic inscriptions, an antenna, and a polystyrene box. Similar incidents involving Chinese spy balloons in other countries have been documented, emphasizing the need for thorough investigation and heightened security measures. (“An unknown air object fell near a military unit in Poland,” Guildhall, 04 June 2023)
 
SWEDEN
Protests in Stockholm challenge Sweden's NATO bid
On 04 June, protests erupted in Stockholm against Sweden's NATO bid and anti-terror legislation despite Turkey's opposition. The demonstration, organized by groups associated with the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), raised concerns as PKK flags and anti-NATO slogans were displayed. Turkey expressed dissatisfaction with the planned protest and called for its prevention, citing the presence of PKK terrorists operating freely in Sweden. Swedish officials defended the new law, stating that it does not target freedom of speech. The incident follows previous allegations of Russian influence and destabilization efforts in Sweden, including the burning of the Quran near the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm. (“Sweden staged a rally against Erdogan before the decision on NATO membership,” Guildhall, 04 June 2023)
 
THE UK
NATO Allies conduct joint training exercises in Estonia
On 04 June, the UK’s Ministry of Defence published a press release, on 02 June, that in Estonia, the UK engaged in extensive training exercises with NATO allies, involving over 10,000 personnel from 11 countries. British RAF Typhoon fighter jets and Army Air Corps Apache helicopters participated in a joint exercise called Spring Tempest. They practiced firing heavy machine guns and advanced missiles at sea targets, showcasing the ability to conduct precision strikes deep in enemy territory. The mission demonstrated the UK's commitment to collective defence, regional security, and interoperability with NATO allies. The training was supported by a Forward Air Controller operating from a Wildcat helicopter. The UK's contribution to European security remains a priority. (“British fighter jets and helicopters train to attack targets at sea, alongside NATO allies in Estonia,” gov.uk, 04 June 2023)
 
Docherty reinforces support for Central Asia
On 04 June, a UK Minister, Leo Docherty, embarked on a significant visit to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to reaffirm the UK's support for the region. This visit marks the highest-ranking UK official's trip to Kyrgyzstan in over ten years. As Central Asia grapples with economic uncertainty due to Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, Docherty aims to strengthen the UK's partnership with the region. The visit will focus on promoting British expertise for sustainable economic development and discussing emerging opportunities for British businesses. Additionally, discussions on energy security, climate cooperation, and trade ties will take place, highlighting the strategic importance of the region. The Minister will also engage in activities that showcase UK-supported initiatives, such as promoting inclusive tourism in Kyrgyzstan and exploring cooperation in critical minerals, clean technology, and agriculture in Kazakhstan. In Uzbekistan, discussions will center around defense, trade, counter-terrorism, and support for domestic reforms. (“Europe Minister to forge closer relations in Central Asia,” gov.uk, 04 June 2023)
 
TURKEY
Former intelligence chief appointed as Foreign Minister
On 04 June, Guildhall reported that Turkish former intelligence chief Hakan Fidan was appointed as foreign minister by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Fidan, previously a military officer, served as Erdogan's advisor during his tenure as prime minister. Speculation arose that Fidan could also assume the role of vice president. Notably, only the health and culture ministers retained their positions in the government. On the same lines, the appointment of ex-banker Mehmet Simsek as finance minister raised public interest, signalling a potential shift away from Erdogan's unorthodox policies. (“Erdogan appoints former Turkish intelligence chief as foreign minister,” Guildhall, 04 June 2023)
 
REGIONAL
EU calls for de-escalation and dialogue in Northern Kosovo
On 03 June, the EU strongly condemned the violent acts against citizens, KFOR troops, law enforcement, and media in northern Kosovo. The EU fully supports NATO's mission KFOR and the EU's mission EULEX in fulfilling their mandates. Kosovo and Serbia must immediately and unconditionally de-escalate, refrain from divisive rhetoric, and halt further uncoordinated actions. Urgent restoration of calm is necessary. Kosovo should suspend police operations near municipal buildings, hold inclusive early elections, and involve Kosovo Serbs. Concern is expressed over the heightened alert status of the Serbian Armed Forces. The EU expects both sides to engage in the EU-facilitated Dialogue to find a sustainable solution, ensuring safety, security, and participatory democracy for all citizens. Immediate work on establishing the Association/Community of Serb Majority Municipalities is urged. (“Kosovo* - Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the latest developments,” consilium.europa.eu, 03 June 2023)
 
Stoltenberg urges Turkey to support Sweden's membership bid
On 04 June, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg called on Turkey to withdraw its opposition to Sweden's bid to join the US-led defence alliance, emphasizing that Sweden's membership would enhance security for both countries. Stoltenberg expressed his eagerness to finalize Sweden's accession promptly during his visit to Istanbul, where he attended Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's inauguration ceremony. He held talks with Turkey's new foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, who replaced Mevlut Cavusoglu in Erdogan's reshuffled Cabinet. Stoltenberg acknowledged that Sweden has taken significant steps to address Turkey's concerns regarding terrorism, such as implementing stricter laws and improving counter-terrorism cooperation. The approval of existing NATO member states, including Turkey and Hungary, is necessary for Sweden's NATO membership. (“NATO's Stoltenberg again urges Turkey to let Sweden join,” Deutsche Welle, 04 June 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Kyrgyz Republic and EU strengthen bilateral cooperation
On 03 June, Kyrgyz Republic’s President Sadyr Zhaparov and EU’s President Charles Michel held a constructive meeting in Cholpon-Ata. They reaffirmed their strong commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation based on democratic principles, respect for human rights, and the rule of law. The presidents emphasized the importance of economic cooperation, sustainable development goals, and adherence to the UN Charter's principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. They welcomed the achievements of the long-standing Kyrgyz-EU partnership and expressed the need to further strengthen trade, economic, and investment cooperation. The signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement was anticipated to elevate relations to a new level. The Kyrgyz Republic appreciated the EU's support for democratic reforms, human rights, rule of law, education, and the green agenda. (“Joint press statement of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic Mr Sadyr Zhaparov and the President of the European Council Mr Charles Michel,” consilium.europa.eu, 03 June 2023)
 
Germany to send warships to Indo-Pacific in 2024 amid tensions
On 04 June, Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said: “Germany will deploy two warships to the Indo-Pacific in 2024 amidst rising China and Taiwan tensions and South China Sea disputes." Speaking at Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue, he emphasized the importance of upholding the rules-based international order and safeguarding vital maritime passages. The deployments aim to protect this order and are not targeted at any specific nation. Germany seeks to balance its security and economic interests, considering China as its primary trading partner. In 2021, a German warship reentered the South China Sea after nearly two decades, joining other Western nations in addressing concerns over China's territorial ambitions. (“Germany to send two warships to Indo-Pacific in 2024 amid South China Sea tensions,” Reuters, 04 June 2023)


03 June 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #533

War in Ukraine: Day 464 | Norway to continue INTERFLEX training operation

Photo : regjeringen.no


War in Ukraine: Day 464
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 02 June, Ukrainian General Staff of Armed Forces reported on Facebook that Ukraine's defence forces successfully repelled 15 Russian attacks on the eastern front line. The Russians launched 62 air strikes, 15 missile strikes, and about 20 MLRS attacks. Ukrainian troops defended all attacks. Eight Russian attacks were repelled in the Marinka sector, resulting in Russian casualties and vehicle destruction. Russia has also strengthened its border with cadets from military institutions. The Ukrainian air force struck Russian concentrations, destroying cruise missiles and attacking drones. Ukrainian rocket and artillery units targeted Russian command posts and equipment.

On 02 June, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is expanding its digital solutions export to Europe, Latin America, and Africa. He highlighted the cooperation with Estonia and the development of the Ukrainian Diia government application, which will be adopted in Estonia. The aim is to provide convenient and useful government services to millions globally, emphasizing Ukraine's leadership in digitalization.

On 02 June, according to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office, the village of Kivsharivka in the Kupyansk district was targeted by Russian military shelling, resulting in the death of a man and a woman. Three civilians, including a three year old boy, were injured. Subsequently, the front-line village of Dvorichna was shelled. Pre-trial investigations for violations of laws and customs of war have been initiated. Earlier, there was a missile attack in the Kharkiv region.

On 02 June, Ukrainian Air Force announced,Ukraine's air defences successfully neutralizing 15 Russian cruise missiles and 21 attack drones during the night. The Ukrainian Air Force, in collaboration with the Defense Forces' air defences, thwarted the Russian attempts to target Kyiv with drones and missiles. The cruise missiles and drones were destroyed as they entered Ukrainian territory from different directions. 

On 02 June, the Ukrainian farm minister stated that Ukraine is prepared to pursue a "plan B" for grain exports across the Black Sea if Russia withdraws support from the current grain export deal. The agreement, brokered by the UN and Turkey, aimed to address the global food crisis resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite the deal, Russia has restricted the use of Ukraine's major Black Sea port and limited food deliveries. The minister proposed a new arrangement that excludes Russia, offering insurance guarantees and creating a special fund for companies. While hoping for the current initiative's success, Ukraine is ready to explore alternative options.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 May, Russia's Belgorod Region Governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that two people were killed and at least six were injured because of Ukrainian shelling. An eleven year old child got injured in the left eye with shrapnel. In Shebekino city, two people were injured. 

On 2 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin held an online Russia's Security Council meeting with the permanent members. The meeting was regarding the issues of inter-ethnic relations within the country. He said that this was on account of the intensifying efforts of the enemies to destabilize domestic political security and the security of the whole country. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 02 June, in an interview with The Washington Post, Britain's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace expressed optimism about Ukraine's ability to retake Crimea from Russia. Contrary to some NATO officials' doubts, he believed that Russian forces, facing equipment shortages, could be defeated. He acknowledged differences regarding Ukraine's NATO membership prospects, emphasizing the need for realism and avoiding overpromising. Instead, he mentioned the potential for bilateral or multilateral defence agreements to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities. Wallace stated that Western countries remain supportive, providing weapons and funding without pressuring Ukraine to negotiate or make concessions. However, he noted that defence equipment donations are dwindling, leading to increased purchases. The extent of Russian losses suggests Putin's reliance on pouring more troops into the conflict, potentially unaware of the true challenges his military faces. Wallace highlighted the importance of being ready for unforeseen circumstances.

On 02 June, according to a Facebook post by the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Norwegian National Guard (Forsvaret Heimevernet) instructors, as part of the multinational training operation called "INTERFLEX," continue to train Ukrainian servicemen and servicewomen in mine safety. The training aims to equip them with knowledge, skills, and practical methods to ensure the safety of their lives and health during combat operations or in areas contaminated by explosive objects. This training enhances the combat skills of Ukrainian servicemen and servicewomen, improving personal and unit security in different scenarios. 

On 02 June, during a joint press conference in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Estonian President Alar Karis discussed the potential collaboration in creating joint defence enterprises and involving Estonian experts in demining Ukrainian territory. Zelensky expressed gratitude for Estonia's support, including political assistance, sanctions against Russia, and the provision of weapons. They also addressed the situation at the front and preparations for international events, including the upcoming NATO summit. Estonia has been actively involved in practical reconstruction projects in Ukraine, such as the opening of a kindergarten in the Zhytomyr region.
 
On 02 June, Ukraine's State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure and the European Investment Bank signed an EU grant agreement worth over EUR 50 million. The funds will support critical infrastructure and the construction of temporary bridges in war-affected regions. Ukrainian state agency heads, Mustafa Nayyem, expressed gratitude for the support and emphasized the importance of restoring logistics and transport services to isolated communities. Till now, 85 temporary bridges have been built, with the aim of providing vital aid and public services to citizens affected by the Russian invasion, which has resulted in the destruction of 346 bridges in Ukraine.
 
On 01 June, the Financial Times reported that the European Commission is developing a four year financing plan worth billions of euros to provide stable and predictable support to Ukraine. The plan aims to address the criticism of the EU's inconsistent financial assistance to Kyiv, given the country's strained public finances due to the war. If approved, the funds would offer Ukraine greater financial visibility and encourage other allies like the US and UK to make long-term commitments. The proposal, which may involve new debt issuance, could cover Ukraine's general budgetary support and immediate rebuilding needs. Obtaining unanimous agreement from EU member states, however, could be challenging.

The Global Fallouts         
Implications of the War 

On 02 June, Ukrinform reported that the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov discussed with defence ministers of the US and Canada to acquire further assistance in war and for the reconstruction of Ukraine during the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore. He tweeted that US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand assured their support for Ukraine. 
 
On 02 June, the IAEA updated the Director General's statement regarding the safety of the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The Director General announced the delivery of essential medical equipment and support to Ukrainian Nuclear Power plants (NPPs) for the people who work in the facilities. The report says that there were two deliveries that happened in recent days, which had Satellite communication systems, antennas and spectrometers to South Ukraine NPP and State Nuclear Inspectorate of Ukraine that were contributed by USA and UK. There were eighteen deliveries in total and totalling EUR 5 million. It says that both Russia and Ukraine expressed strong support for ensuring nuclear safety and security and would adhere to the five principles laid down by Director General Grossi. The report said that the eighth mission of IAEA experts' planned rotation since last September has been delayed because of the local weather condition

References
"Operational information as of 18.00 02.06.2023 on the Russian invasion," Facebook, 02 June 2023 
"Ukrainian air shield must continuously have all it needs – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address," president.gov.ua, 02 June 2023
"The occupiers shelled Kharkiv Oblast - prosecutors and police investigators are working at the sites of shelling," Telegram, 02 June 2023
"15 cruise missiles and 21 strike drones were destroyed," Telegram, 02 June 2023
"Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says," Reuters, 02 June 2023
"Britain's defense chief, a contender to run NATO, lays out his vision," The Washington Post, 02 June 2023
"More Russian civilians killed by Ukrainian strikes – governor," RT News, 03 June 2023
"General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Facebook, 02 June 2023
"Demining, defense enterprises: Zelensky outlines details of his meeting with Estonian president," Ukrinform, 02 June 2023
"The EIB and Ukrzaliznytsia signed an EU grant agreement in the amount of 6.7 million euros to meet the urgent needs of railway transport in Ukraine," eib.org, 02 June 2023
"Sam Fleming and Henry Foy "Brussels plans four-year financial support for Ukraine," Financial Times, 01 June 2023
"Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council," Kremlin, 02 June 2023
"Ukraine's Reznikov meets with U.S., Canadian defense ministers," Ukrinform, 02 June 2023


In Brief
By Sreeja JS and Nithyashree RB

GERMANY
Luftwaffe pilots trained Chinese pilots: Der Spiegel
On 02 June, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that he would investigate allegations that former German pilots training Chinese pilots. The report was released by Der Spiegel, in which it claimed Luftwaffe officers were employed in China as trainers. The report said that shell companies were used for payments. The soldiers are believed to have disclosed NATO's and Budeswehr's tactics. Pistorius said that former Bundeswehr soldiers were allowed to take up jobs that are under the Soldiers' Act. ("Germany to probe report of Chinese pilot training," Deutsche Welle, 03 June 2023)

KOSOVO
Prime Minister willing to organize new elections in Northern Kosovo says spokesperson
On 02 June, Prime Minister expressed his willingness to conduct new elections in Northern Kosovo after violent protests caused tensions between Serbia and Kosovo. Albin Kurti made the suggestions as diplomatic pressure from the US, France and Germany mounted on him to call for re-elections that ethnic Albanians won after the Kosovo Serb population boycotted the polls. On 01 June, he tweeted urging Serbia to help reduce tensions by calling for "an immediate end to violence by Belgrade-sponsored mobs against security officers until new elections in the thos municipalities," quotes Politico. (Nicolas Camut and Lili Bayer, "Kosovo PM open to redoing elections after violent protests," Politico.eu, 02 June 2023)

POLAND
President calls for amendments within days of signing a law to curb Russia's influence
On 02 June, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that amendments will be made to a law that is aimed to curb Russia's influence. Duda was already facing criticisms for signing the law from the West and the opposition. His recent ventures to amend it, have also given rise to criticisms from people who want to either keep the law as it is or for signing the law earlier. The law was signed on 30 May. It will create a committee to investigate officials under Russian influence and oust them from office. Duda's Law and Justice party's spokesman affirmed that the fundamental aims of the bill will remain. One of the opposition parties leader Szymon Holownia commented, "President Duda has applied the right of veto against his own signature." (Monila Scislowska, "Poland's president proposes urgent amendments to law on Russian influence," AP News, 02 June 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Federal Council adopts a maritime strategy
On 02 June, Switzerland's Federal Council adopted a maritime strategy despite being a landlocked country. Bern's strategy includes looking at five areas. First, international law through which the Sustainable Development Goals Agenda implementation. Second, the maritime economy through which sea-borne imports are managed under a framework. Third, environmental concerns for marine life and society through which it will focus on maritime biodiversity, plastic pollution and climate protection. Fourth, maritime science and research through which the scientific community will be supported. Fifth, Swiss-flagged vessels through which registration of Swiss-flagged commercial vessels will be made easier. ("Federal Council adopts maritime strategy for Switzerland," The Federal Council, 02 June 2023)

REGIONAL
"A ceasefire resulting in a frozen conflict will not bring lasting peace," says Ursula von der Leyen
On 31 May, speaking at the Globsec conference in Bratislava, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said that a ceasefire would result in a frozen conflict that would not bring lasting peace and increase regional stability. She further added that: "we want a just peace, one that does not reward the aggressor, but one that upholds the principles of the UN Charter, and the Ukrainian people's right to be masters of their own future." She continued by saying that just and lasting peace can only be realized through "long-term" security guarantees delivered by "like-minded" states to fortify Ukraine against Russian attacks in the future. This process is to be done in parallel with the democratic reforms in Ukraine necessary to advance its EU accession bid. She did not mention which country should form the "like-minded" states or whether the arrangement should be governed by NATO in her speech. (Jorge Liboreiro, "A ceasefire in Ukraine would lead to a 'frozen conflict,' says Ursula von der Leyen," Euronews, 31 May 2023)

Azerbaijan accuses France of misinterpreting the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks
On 02 June, Politico reported that Azerbaijan has accused French President Emmanuel Macron of misinterpreting the discussions during high-stakes peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met on 01 June on the sidelines of the summit in Moldova to negotiate a potential peace treaty. Macron along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel joined the meeting as mediators. Following the summit, Elysée Palace issued a statement saying that the European leaders called on both countries to respect all their commitments, the release of prisoners and avoidance of hostile rhetoric. Macron's press service added that the leaders also stressed the importance of defining rights and guarantee for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, the region where Armenia fought a brutal war in 2020. Both statements were refuted by the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry on 02 June by saying that they distort the position of the parties. (Gabriel Gavin, "Azerbaijan accuses Macron of 'distorting' Armenia peace talks after EU summit," Politico.eu, 02 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
UK ministers take part in Shangri-La Dialogue
On 02 May, UK's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCDO) Minister of State Anne-Marie Trevelyan attended the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue. Wallace stressed the importance of "building a stable and balanced Asia-Pacific" along with ministers from Canada and the Philippines. Wallace said: "We understand that Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security is indivisible and that upholding the rules-based order is a collective effort – that is why organizations like ASEAN are so important." Trevelyan said: The UK is committed to playing a full and active role in ensuring a free, safe and open Indo-Pacific, working with partners in ASEAN and beyond to tackle global challenges." ("UK commitment to Indo-Pacific reaffirmed as global summit takes place in Singapore," GOV.UK, 03 May 2023)


02 June 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #532

War in Ukraine: Day 463 | Romania signs joint declaration in support of Ukraine

New Conservation law introduced in Finland; Zelenskyy stresses Ukraine's NATO bid at Moldova Summit 

Photo : president.gov.ua


War in Ukraine: Day 463
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 01 June, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Telegram that Russia launched a series of attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. Ten Iskander missiles, consisting of seven ballistic and three cruise missiles, were launched from the north but were successfully destroyed by Ukrainian air defence forces. The attack resulted in the tragic loss of three lives, including an 11-year-old child.

On 01 June, on the air of the national telethon "United News," the Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat, said: "Today, the enemy used superfast Iskander missiles to strike unexpectedly." Ihnat highlighted the speed of Iskander missiles, emphasizing the limited time for seeking shelter. He emphasized that Russia aims to catch Ukraine off guard, making it difficult for the air defence system to respond. Despite the attacks, Ukrainian air defence forces successfully intercepted all ten missiles, preventing further casualties.

On 01 June, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat, Ukraine could not initiate strikes on Russia's Iskander ballistic missile systems due to its international commitments. He stated that Ukraine has pledged not to attack targets within Russia with the provided weapons. However, if missiles are launched from the occupied territories, Ukraine will use all available means to counter them. Ihnat also noted that Russia's shortage of Iskander missiles limited the scale of the recent attack on Kyiv.

On 01 June, during a working meeting chaired by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Odesa region, the Ukrainian Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development, Oleksandr Kubrakov, reported through Facebook that the Russian blockade of Ukraine's largest Black Sea port, Pivdennyi, is causing food shortages in at least ten countries. Efforts are underway to increase the capacity of the Danube Port Cluster and develop alternative logistics routes for Ukrainian agricultural exports. Discussions also focused on port security, civilian navigation in the Black Sea, and the development of the Danube port cluster. The agreement for safe agricultural transportation through the Black Sea has been extended, but Russia has blocked Pivdennyi port operations for almost a month.

On 01 June, Ukrinform reported that explosions were heard in Kharkiv as Russian forces launched an attack using the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. Officials urged residents to seek shelter, and initial reports indicated strikes in the Industrialnyi district. Two strikes were confirmed; emergency services responded, and an industrial facility was damaged.

On 01 June, during a summit in Chisinau, Zelenskyy urged a clear invitation for Ukraine to join NATO at the upcoming Vilnius summit in July. He emphasized the need for security guarantees on the path to membership and a positive decision regarding Ukraine's EU membership. Zelenskyy highlighted the importance of making decisive and positive decisions for Ukraine, emphasizing that such decisions would benefit everyone involved.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 June, RT News reported that the UN envoy from Russia, Stephane Dujarric, said that Russia would restrict the passage of grain ships to Yuzhny port until Ukraine reopens the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. The implementation of the Black Sea Initiative slowed in May, leaving only thirty-three ships from Ukrainian ports, which is two times less than in April. The Ukrainian Ministry of Renovation and Infrastructure blamed Russia for "another unjustified refusal." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said the UN had not addressed any of the five issues that Moscow has identified with the deal, which includes the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline. He said: "Our position remains unchanged – the export of ammonia is part of the existing agreements and was supposed to start simultaneously with the transportation of Ukrainian grain." He added that there is no point in discussing the extension of the deal beyond 17 July without addressing the five issues. 

On 01 June, Sputnik Globe reported that Russian armed forces, border guard and Federal Security Service had thwarted three invasion attempts near the Shebekino town by Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian forces attacked Shebekino town with artillery strikes before the attack that injured civilians and damaged residential buildings. There were two Ukrainian infantry companies supported by tanks which carried out the attack. Moscow said Russia's Western Military District had conducted 11 strikes on the enemy targets. Ukrainian forces lost nearly 30 terrorists, four armored fighting vehicles, Grad MLRS combat vehicle, and one pickup truck. 

On 01 June, Russia's Security Council, Deputy Chairman, Dimitri Medvedev, stated that attacks were not military operations and did not fit in with any rules of warfare. He called the actions of the Ukrainian regime as terrorism. He added that the way to counter terrorists is to destroy them. He said: "To cause damage to the civilian population and only that, because those means of destruction, those drones that were used, cannot damage either military facilities or public administration buildings."

The West View    
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 01 June, during a meeting in Moldova, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the need to increase sanctions on Russia, hold the aggressor accountable, and support Ukraine's path to EU and NATO membership. They signed a joint declaration expressing solidarity and emphasizing Romania's assistance in countering the Russian invasion. The leaders also discussed bilateral cooperation in trade, logistics, and humanitarian areas.

On 01 June, during the European Political Community Summit in Moldova, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. They discussed the implementation of the Ukrainian Peace Formula, securing global support for Ukraine's peace initiative, obtaining security guarantees before NATO membership, and lifting export restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products.

The Global Fallouts         
Implications of the War 

On 01 June, Swissinfo reported that Taiwan donated USD 5 million for the reconstruction project of Ukraine led by Lithuania. Central Project Management Agency said that this contribution would be used to purchase the educational equipment for the school in Borodyanka and a kindergarten in Irpin. Taiwanese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Roy Chun Lee said: "Taiwan sees Ukraine as our own image in a different continent … If one day Taiwan is facing an increased level of military intimidation from China, we will be looking for your assistance as well, just as we are helping Ukraine."

References
"10 missiles destroyed," Telegram, 01 June 2023
"Russian troops try to strike Kyiv unexpectedly from short distance with superfast Iskander missiles - Air Force spox," Ukrinform, 01 June 2023
"Ukraine will not hit Iskander systems in Russia- Air Force spx," Ukrinform, 01 June 2023
"Ukrainian ports and the Grain Initiative are the focus of the working trip of the President of Ukraine to Odesa," Facebook, 01 June 2023
"Russians hit Kharkiv city, region withS-300 missiles," Ukrinform, 01 June 2023
"Zelensky expects Ukraine to be invited to NATO at Vilnius summit," Ukrinform, 01 June 2023
"Black Sea grain deal hits obstacle – UN," RTNews, 01 June 2023
"Russia Foils Ukrainian Attack on Belgorod Region, Over 30 Terrorists Killed - MoD," Sputnik Globe, 01 June 2023
"Ukrainian regime behaves like terrorists, and terrorists must be done away with — Medvedev," TASS, 01 June 2023
"President of Ukraine met with the President of Romania," president.gov.ua, 01 June 2023
"Security guarantees and grain export: Zelensky meets with European Commission President," Ukrinform, 01 June 2023
"Taiwan donates $5 million towards rebuilding Ukraine with Lithuania," Swissinfo, 01 June 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nithyashree RB

FINLAND
New Conservation law introduced
On 31 May, the Finnish government announced the implementation of the Nature Conservation Law. The law came into effect on 01 June 2023. The law aims at biodiversity conservation, protection of natural beauty and landscapes, climate change adaptation, sustainable consumption and enhancing awareness. The law protects endangered habitat types. The law also bans ore prospecting in national parks and reserves. National biodiversity strategy and action plans will be established. The law suggests voluntary ecological compensation as a tool to offset the anthropogenic damages to biodiversity. ("New nature conservation law comes into effect on 01 June," Helsinki Times, 31 May 2023)

IRELAND
US naval ship Virginia Ann leaves Irish waters
On 01 June, the US naval ship Virginia Ann left Cork after resupplying and headed west. The ship was in Irish waters for four months with its Automatic Identification System turned off, travelling back and forth from Co Cork to the southern tip of the UK. The ship is classified as an offshore supply ship capable of advanced subsurface operations. According to The Irish Times, the ship was involved in "manned diving operations and subsea cable surveys" and the upgradation of the Sound Surveillance System that detects Russian submarines. (Connor Gallagher, "US naval ship activities in Irish waters cause concern for Defence Force officials," The Irish Times, 02 June 2023)

KOSOVO 
Diplomatic pressure mounts; Germany and France call for new elections 
On 01 June, the US, France, and Germany increased diplomatic pressure on Pristina and Belgrade to resolve the dispute in northern Kosovo. Speaking at the European Political Community summit in Moldova, French President Immanuel Macron said that he and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged the Kosovan and Serbian leaders to organize new elections quickly. The US called Kosovo and Serbia to take "immediate steps" to defuse the situation and warned that the crisis hinders Euro-Atlantic integration. Meanwhile, Prime Minister said that he would not back down from appointing ethnic Albanian mayors in the Serb majority areas of Northern Kosovo. ("Kosovo crisis: France, Germany call for new elections," Deutsche Welle, 01 June 2023) 

UKRAINE 
Zelenskyy stresses Ukraine's NATO bid at Moldova Summit 
On 01 June, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived at Mimi Castle to attend the second European Political Community in southern Moldova. He said: "Our future is in the EU. Ukraine is ready to join NATO," reiterating Ukraine's desire to join NATO. His push comes as NATO foreign ministers are meeting in Oslo to discuss the agenda for the official summit in July 2023. The former deputy Secretary General of NATO said that NATO is likely to continue to provide military aid to Ukraine and strengthen its longer-range capabilities, and it will not go beyond that. He also renewed his appeal for fighter jets in the summit as the US had given permission to its allies to supply F-16 jets to Ukraine, and the highly acclaimed "jet coalition" by the UK and Netherlands made headlines last week. ("Zelenskyy presses Ukraine NATO bid at Moldova summit," Deutsche Welle, 01 June 2023) 

REGIONAL
We make sure that Ukraine wins the war: NATO Secretary General
On 01 June, the NATO foreign ministers took part in the second day of the informal meeting in Oslo. The meeting focused on support for Ukraine and defence spending. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: "The most important thing for NATO and Ukraine is to assure that they win this war and we are providing an unprecedented level of support." He added that NATO would ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin would not be aggressive against Ukraine again. The foreign ministers also discussed Sweden and Ukraine's accession to NATO. ("NATO working to ensure 'Putin does not do this again'," Deutsche Welle, 01 June 2023)

European Council approves accession to Istanbul Convention
On 01 June, the European Council approved the accession to Convention on Preventing and combatting violence against Women and domestic violence (Istanbul Convention). Under the convention, a legal framework comprising data collection and criminalizing of various forms of violence, awareness initiatives and support services will be offered. The convention enhances the EU's aims of establishing equality. ("Combatting violence against women: Council adopts decision about EU's accession to Istanbul Convention," consillium.europa, 01 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
Hungary: First EU state to move its embassy to Jerusalem 
On 31 May, Israelian Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, during his visit to Budapest, announced that Hungary would be the first EU member state to move its embassy to Jerusalem. Cohen also added that this is great news for Jerusalem. (Lahav Harkov, "Hungary to be first EU state with embassy in Jerusalem, Cohen says," The Jerusalem Post, 31 May 2023) 


31 May 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #530

Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus | War in Ukraine: Day 461

NATO to deploy 700 more troops in Kosovo to curb violence ; Turkey condemns the projection of PKK flag in the parliament

Photo : Vadim Savitsky/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP


IN FOCUS
By Melvin George

Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus 
On 25 May, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarus’s Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin signed a deal on deployment and storage of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. Sergey said that it was in response to NATO’s joint nuclear missions in Europe. The agreement involves “non-strategic nuclear weapons” and in accordance with “all international legal obligations currently in force.” The control over the weapons remains with Russia. Khrenin said that the deployment would make western powers reconsider their activities in the region. 

On 25 May, Belarusian President Aleksandr G Lukashenko said: “We had to prepare storage areas and the like. We have done this, so the movement of nuclear weapons has already begun.”

On 26 May, Tokyo imposed additional sanctions on Russia as a response to the Russian deal to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. It involves export ban to Russian military-related organizations and assets of individuals and organizations. Hirokazu said: “Japan’s government demands Russia and Belarus stop actions that further escalate tensions as we continue to watch the development with strong concern.”

The following are the three issues:
1. Triggers for Russia to formalize the deal:
The increase in the attacks inside Russian borders which Moscow called “terrorist activities” by Ukraine is background in which Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu signed the deal with  Khrenin. UK and Netherland’s signing of coalition to provide fighter jet training to Ukrainian is also another factor for Russia to step up. This could have resulted in signing agreement with Belarus. The US upgradation of its nuclear weapons in Europe, recent staging of nuclear capable bomber drills near Russia’s borders over the Black and Baltic Seas is seen as NATO’s nuclear provocations by Russia. 

2. Russia’s strategy behind tactical nuclear weapons: 
Tactical nuclear weapons are short range and less destructive than long-range strategic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads. It is intended to destroy the enemy troops and weapons in the battleground. When Russians say that the deployment is in accordance with “all international legal obligations currently in force,” that means unlike strategic weapons that are under arms control agreements, there is no limitation on these tactical weapons. Uncertainty remains as no clear information on the number or characteristics of the weapons to be deployed in Belarus in unknown. 

3. The Belarusian ties with Russia:
Polish Deputy Prime Minister Waldemar Skrzypczak's announcement of support for the ‘Pro- Ukrainian army’ in Belarus became a threat for Aleksandr Lukashenko. Similar to the once attempted Colour revolution or any other Maidan type insurgency to overthrow the Belarusian government, dependency for loans and subsidized oil and gas from Russia makes Minsk to come closer to Moscow. According to Aliaksandr Alesin, an independent Belarusian military analyst, there are dozens of soviet-era facilities in Belarus that stored about two-thirds of Russia’s medium-range nuclear-tipped missiles that are still functional. Last March, Putin announced that the construction of storage facilities will be completed by 01 July. Apart from existing storage facilities, the construction would increase the capability of Belarus to carry more weapons.
 
References
Tom Nichols, “What Happens if Russia Stashes Nukes in Belarus,” The Atlantic, 26 May 2023
Russia signs deal to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,”AP, 25 May 2023
The United States condemns a deal allowing Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus,” The New York Times, 25 May 2023
Mari Yamaguchi, “Japan adopts new sanctions on Russia, criticizes its deal to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus,” The Washington Post, 26 May 2023
Explained: Why does Russia want tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus?” Frontline, 28 March 2023
Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, “Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Mapping U.S. and Russian Deployments,” Council on Foreign Relations, 30 March 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 461
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 30 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on Telegram about his first ever telephonic conversation with Cape Verde’s President Jose Maria Neves, discussing the Ukrainian peace formula and global food security. Zelensky invited Cape Verde to participate in implementing the Ukrainian Peace Formula and discussed the Grain from Ukraine humanitarian initiative, emphasizing the topic of global food security. 

On 30 May, Zelenskyy tweeted about his substantial phone call with Germany’s Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He mentions discussing the implementation of previous agreements, strengthening Ukraine's defence capabilities, particularly in air defence, and aligning positions for upcoming international events. Zelensky expressed gratitude for Germany's EUR three billion defence package. This conversation follows Zelensky's recent visit to Germany, his first since Russia's invasion.

On 30 May, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defence Hanna Malyar, reported on Telegram that the Russian army is undergoing replacements and regrouping in the Bakhmut sector. She stated: “Ukrainian defence forces have temporarily halted their movement for other military tasks while maintaining control of the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut. The Russian continues shelling and conducting air strikes in the area.”

On 30 May, Ukraine's spokesperson Yaroslav Zhelezniak announced on Telegram that the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has approved a law that lowers the maximum conscription age from 27 to 25 years. The law aims to reduce the duration of citizens' stay on the military register of conscripts during times of martial law in Ukraine.

On 30 May, Ukrinform reported on the drone attack on Russian territory, Ukraine refrains from commenting. Ukrainian spokesperson for the Armed Forces, Yuriy Ihnat, stated that the Kremlin regime is resorting to strikes and attempts to create nightmares due to its lack of obvious successes. Multiple drones reportedly targeted Moscow, with most being intercepted and a few causing damage.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On May 30, Sputnik reported that Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu, said that Ukraine continues to carry out attacks against peaceful Russian citizens and the social facilities. Shoigu emphasized that Ukraine lost more than 16,000 soldiers in May, 16 aircrafts, five helicopters, 466 UAVs, more than 400 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, 238 field artillery pieces and mortars. He claimed that about 200 HIMARS long-range guided missiles, 29 UK Storm Shadow cruise missiles were intercepted and destroyed by Russian air defence systems in May. 

On 30 May, Sputnik reported that Russian Press Secretary of the President, Dmitry Peskov said that the 30 May drone attack on Moscow was the response to Russia's successful attack on 28 May. The Russian officials briefed about the incident to Putin and he had no “special plans” to address the Russian citizens after the attack on Moscow. Several drones were shot down and several buildings were slightly damaged by the attack.

The West View    
Responses from the US and Europe 
     
On 30 May, Sky News reported on UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly comments on Russia’s influence. He stated: “Ukraine has the lawful authority to protect itself and can exert military force beyond its borders to counter Russia's influence.” The report says he cleverly refrained from speculating on the recent drone attack in Moscow, but affirmed Ukraine's right to self-defence.

On 30 May, according to the Ukrainian ministry's press service, Ukraine and Portugal signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance cooperation in social policy on 29 May. The memorandum includes exchanging knowledge and experience in social protection for vulnerable groups, providing social assistance, early childhood intervention, and reforming the social action system. Portugal expressed readiness to assist in various areas, and both parties agreed to coordinate future cooperation.

On 30 May, Deutsche Welle reported on an interview of Ukraine's Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov. He stated that there is a potential for Ukraine to receive Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets from Germany. Reznikov highlighted the possibility of forming a "coalition of fighter jets" with the American F-16, Eurofighter, and Swedish Gripen. Reznikov expressed interest in Germany's involvement in training Ukrainian pilots on Eurofighters, while Denmark and the Netherlands are already engaged in training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War 

On 30 May, IAEA Director General Rafaela Mariano Grossi, said neither Russia nor Ukraine are committed to respect five principles laid down by the IAEA to safeguard Ukraine's Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. He said that as the military activities continue in the region and it may escalate in the future, the situation at the plant is “extremely fragile and dangerous." IAEA would reinforce its staff at Zaporizhzhia to track whether the principles are obeyed. Russia and Ukraine blamed each other in the UN assembly for shelling that reduced the power supply required for the cooling of the reactor. The US ambassador said the decision to avert the nuclear catastrophe is within the control of Moscow. 

On 30 May, IMF staff and Ukrainian authorities reached a staff-level agreement that would be subjected to approval of the IMF executive board which would enable disbursement of about USD 900 million. The agreement consists of an updated set of economic and financial policies for the first review under the four year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. The remarkable resilience and recent economic developments points towards gradual economic recovery in 2023. But the outlook of the country remains uncertain because of the war. 

References
We continue our systemic work with #GlobalSouth,” Telegram, 30 May 2023
Volodymyr Zelenskyi/Twitter,” Twitter, 30 May 2023
During the day, the enemy did not advance in any of the directions in which he was attacking,” Telegram, 30 May 2023
Agenda for May 30,” Telegram, 30 May 2023
Air Force refuses to comment on drone attack in Moscow,” Ukrinform, 30 May 2023
Russia Reacts Harshly to Ukrainian Terrorist Attacks With NATO Weapons - Shoigu,” Sputnikglobe, 30 May 2023
Kremlin on UAV Attack on Moscow: This is Kiev’s ‘Response’ to Russia’s Successful Strike,” Sputnikglobe,  30 May 2023
UK foreign secretary: Ukraine has right to defend itself beyond borders,” Sky News, 30 May 2023
Ukraine and Portugal signed a Memorandum on cooperation in the social sphere,” msp.gov.ua, 30 May 2023
Reznikov: Germany can add a Eurofighter fighter to the coalition,” Deutsche Welle, 30 May 2023
Russia, Ukraine fail to embrace IAEA plan to protect nuclear plant,” Reuters, 30 May 2023
IMF and Ukrainian Authorities Reach Staff-Level Agreement on the First Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement,” IMF, 30 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nithyashree RB

KOSOVO
NATO to deploy 700 more troops in Kosovo to curb violence
On 30 May, Reuters reported that NATO will send 700 more troops in Kosovo and put another battalion on high alert. The unrest has intensified since ethnic Albanian mayors took office in the Serb-majority town of Zvecan after elections in April 2023. NATO already has around 4,000 soldiers currently deployed in Kosovo. Around 30 NATO peacekeeping soldiers defending three town halls in Zvecan were injured on 29 May and 52 protesters were wounded. EU Foreign Policy Chief urged Kosovo and Serbian leaders to find a way to de-escalate tensions by saying that Europe “cannot afford another conflict.” (Ivana Sekularac, “NATO to deploy more troops to Kosovo to curb violence,” Reuters, 30 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
European political community summit to be held in Moldova
On 30 May, Reuters reported that the European Political Community summit is to be held in Moldova. More than 40 European leaders are expected to attend. The meeting will focus on cyber-security, migration and energy security. The meeting will also showcase Europe’s unified support for Ukraine as it readies for the counteroffensive against Russia. The summit was initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2022. According to the Moldovian President’s Foreign Policy advisor Olga Rosca, the meeting will help the country’s endeavours to join the EU. (John Irish, “European leaders head to Moldova for symbolic summit on Ukraine's doorstep,” Reuters, 30 May 2023)
 
ChatGPT expresses interest to set up office in Europe
On 30 May, Politico reported that ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman wants to establish an office in Europe during his visit to the country. In an interview with Politico in Paris, Altman said that France would be a great place if he is looking for research talent but he added that places all across Europe are full of talent and energy. In an interview with Reuters, Altman affirmed that the company will abide by the AI Act, Politico quoted. He added that he will join the EU’s first sandbox in Spain to test his company’s regulatory compliance. (Gian Volpicelli, “ChatGPT boss wants HQ in Europe,” Politico.eu, 30 May 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Wagner group is using social media for recruitment, claims Politico
On 30 May, Politico, claimed that, according to its research, the Wagner group has been using Twitter and Facebook to recruit “fresh blood” to aid its operations including in Ukraine. According to Logically, a UK-based research group focused on disinformation, job ads for Wagner have reached 120,000 views on both social media platforms over the last ten months. The job ads were in dozens of languages having details on fighting, IT, driving and medical positions, promising monthly salaries of RUB 240,000 with benefits including healthcare. Despite the uncertainty looming over the nature of their recruitment campaigns, incitement to violence and promotion of Russian aggression in Ukraine violates the terms of service of both Facebook and Twitter. Head of Research for Logically, Kyle Walter acknowledged that it is concerning that the job posts are circulating more and more despite designating the Wagner group as dangerous and terrifying. (Clothilde Goujard, “Russia’s Wagner Group uses Twitter and Facebook to hunt new recruits,” Politico.eu, 30 May 2023)
 
SWEDEN
Turkey condemns the projection of PKK flag in the parliament
On 30 May, Turkey’s spokesperson Fahrettin Altun condemned the projection of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) flag in Sweden’s parliament. The incident happened parallel to Turkey’s elections on 28 May. The video was released by a Swedish-based Rojava Committee, which supports PKK. The video contained a message to release PKK’s founder Abdullah Ocalan and displayed a burning puppet of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The spokesperson called for the prosecution of the perpetrators. Turkish deems the PKK a terrorist and the incident comes at a crucial time where Turkey is blocking Stockholm’s accession to NATO. (“Turkey wants action from NATO hopeful Sweden over Kurdish political stunt,” Euronews, 30 May 2023)
 
"Time is now to finalise Sweden’s accession” says US Secretary of State
On 31 May, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Turkey to drop its objections and back Sweden’s accession to NATO. Sweden and Finland sought NATO membership when Russia began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Finland joined NATO in April 2023. Sweden’s accession is still pending due to objections from Hungary and Turkey. Blinken said: “From the perspective of the United States, the time is now to finalise Sweden's accession.” He also affirmed US’s position that Ankara should be provided with upgraded F-16 jets “as soon as possible.” (“US urges Turkey to back Sweden's NATO bid,” Euronews, 31 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE
Russia and Ukraine neglect to protect the Zaporizhzhia plant says IAEA Director General
On 30 May, the Director General of IAEA Rafael Grossi accused Russia and Ukraine of not following the principles to protect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the UN Security Council. The principles comprise no attack on or from the plant, and no heavy weapons, artillery systems and munitions, tanks and military personnel should be harboured in the plant. He also announced that off-site power to be provided to the plant. According to the Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia, Russia is following the same. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya called for the “demilitarization and deoccupation” of the power plant. (Daphne Psaledakis and Arshad Mohammed, “Russia, Ukraine fail to embrace IAEA plan to protect nuclear plant,” Reuters, 31 May 2023)
 
THE UK
Prime Minister to meet US President in Washington
On 30 May, Reuters reported that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will meet US President Joe Biden in Washington on 07 and 08 June 2023 on his first state visit. Sunak will meet with members of Congress, and US business leaders. Sunak will discuss increasing economic and trade cooperation and military support to Ukraine. Both leaders are to discuss the political situation in Northern Ireland. (“Andrew Macaskill, “Rishi Sunak to visit Washington next week for talks with Biden,” Reuters, 31 May 2023)


30 May 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #529

Moldova and the US: Four Takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 460

Second Eurasian Economic Forum: Five Takeaways

Photo : md.usembassy.gov


Daily Focus
By Nithyashree RB

Moldova and the US: Four takeaways from the Open Skies Agreement
On 18 May, US Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Richard R Verma and the Moldovan Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development Lilia Dabija signed the Open Skies Agreement in Chisinau. The Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean was also present. The agreement allows both countries to access each other's air space. It gives the parties open routes and enables code sharing. 

According to Article 7 of the agreement, the countries are obliged to ensure civil aviation security. Upon signing, Verma said, "This establishes modern aviation links between the Republic of Moldova and the United States, and this Agreement will help airlines provide more convenient, affordable and efficient services to users." According to Dajiba: "We were backed in the energy, sanitary, ecological, economic, cultural and other sectors and now the aviation's turn has come" from the US. 

A brief background
In 2018, the US government initiated the idea of signing an Open Skies Agreement with Moldova in one of the cabinet meetings. In 2020, the bilateral air travel agreement was signed; cargo aeroplanes have moved from Moldova to the US and vice versa. Due to the setbacks and closing of airports from COVID-19, the signing of the inclusion of civil aviation flights was delayed. The newly signed Open Skies agreement extends it up to civil aviation flights. 

The following are the highlights of the agreement.
1. Liberalization of air transport between the US and Moldova:
The agreement paves the way for the liberalization of air transport between the US and Moldova. It enables direct flights from Moldova to various destinations in the US. It also offers increased travel and trade between the countries. It leads to the liberalization of airlines through less government interference. 

2. Revamping the trade slowdown:
The agreement can revamp the slowed trade due to COVID-19 and the Ukrainian war, promoting economic growth. According to the US Travel Association, flights cost 32 per cent lower on routes covered under the Open Skies Agreement. 

3. Enhancing the tourism sector:
The agreement will enable the tourism sector and enhances people-to-people connections as travelling is made convenient, cheap and comfortable through the liberalization of airlines. It will eventually lead to the modernization of airports and trade via air. 

4. Moving away from the Russian influence:
Although the agreement was the US's initiative, it shows that Moldova is slowly moving away from Russia under the pro-European president. There have been allegations from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, before signing the agreement, that the West is trying to make the country "anti-Russia." 

References
"Civil Air Transport Agreements," US Department of State, 26 May 2023
"United States and Moldova Sign Open Skies Agreement," US Department of State, 18 May 2023
"Moldova, USA sign agreement on liberalization of air transport," moldpres, 18 May 2023
"The Republic of Moldova and the USA signed an Agreement on air transport liberalization," radiomoldova.md, 18 May 2023
Mansur Mirovalev, "As war rages in Ukraine, is Moldova on the brink of conflict," Al Jazeera, 16 May 2023


Daily Focus
By Sreeja JS

Second Eurasian Economic Forum: Five Takeaways from the second plenary session 
On 24 May, the second plenary session of the Eurasian Economic Forum was held in Moscow. The session was attended by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakhstan's President Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan and Eurasian Economic Commission Board Chairman Mikhail Myasnikovich. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a video address to the attendees (Click here for the speech.)

The following are the five takeaways: 
1. Eurasian economic integration: 
One of the key themes highlighted in the session was Eurasian economic integration, reiterating the purpose of forming the EAEU. President of the RSPP (Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs), Alexander Shokin, commented that Eurasian Economic Commission should have greater powers to accomplish the Strategic Development Guidelines for Eurasian Economic Integration until 2025. It includes strategies for scientific and technical cooperation, education, healthcare, technical regulations and digitalization. He also underlined the role of businesses in exacerbating integration. The leaders reaffirmed that the integration should be achieved through strengthening regional and continental alliances, industrial and technological cooperation, energy security, food security, environmental security and infrastructure connectivity. Further, integration should be for purposes and not confrontation. 

2. Decentralized global financial system: 
In his address, Putin stressed the importance of creating a new and decentralized global financial system less dependent on countries that enjoy an advantage in the form of world reserve currencies. He also said that Russia is pursuing a policy of reducing the share of "unfriendly countries' currencies" in mutual transactions and planning to expand activities with its partners, including EAEU, to complete the transition to national currencies. According to Putin, this move will "remove politics from the economic sphere." 

3. Emphasis on technological sovereignty and "soft" infrastructure:
Belarusian President Lukashenko and Putin used "technological sovereignty" to stress the importance of producing high-quality, high-tech products that can compete in global markets. Putin said: "Ensuring technological independence, lies at the heart of the heart of economic and, therefore, political independence." In the session, Tokayev talked about the need to prioritize digitalization (he used the term "soft infrastructure") as an important agenda to consider.

4. China's role in Eurasian integration: 
The leaders have spoken a great deal about aligning the Republic of China to the integration processes within EAEU through the Belt and Road Initiative. According to Tokayev, BRI is one of the largest and most prominent initiatives in the field of continental strategic connectivity in the region. Further, Shokin also pointed out that consultations are going on establishing EAEU-China business dialogue in the EAEU Business Council. 

5. Accelerating partnerships and joining efforts: 
Lukashenko said: "One of the priorities for our country and our entire Eurasian Union is to strengthen regional and continental alliances." On the one hand, the leaders affirmed the need for partnerships to deepen integration within the five-member states. On the other hand, they asserted the need to engage in alliances and partnerships with countries near and abroad that represent the majority of the world's population and global growth like India, China, Egypt and Iran. 


War in Ukraine: Day 460
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 29 May, the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on Facebook that during 28 May, the Ukrainian Air Force conducted 15 strikes on Russian military concentrations, targeting both personnel and heavy equipment. They specifically focused on air defense launchers, successfully hitting them six times. He highlighted the destruction of a Russian reconnaissance UAV and the neutralization of multiple Russian clusters, missile defence systems, control points, and other military assets. Ongoing Russian attempts to occupy Luhansk and Donetsk regions were repelled, while stable situations were maintained in the Volyn, Polissia, Sivershchyna, and Slobozhanshchyna areas. 

On 29 May, The Washington Post reported that Kyiv experienced its 16th air attack this month and the second in 12 hours, resulting in explosions throughout the capital. The Ukrainian air force labelled it a ballistic missile assault and reported that their air defenses successfully eliminated all threats. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed one injury, while over 41,000 individuals sought shelter in subway stations. Kostiantyn Vashchenko, Ukrainian state secretary for defense, linked the attack to an imminent counteroffensive by Ukraine, signalling their preparedness for offensive action. He conveyed this message during a security forum in Bratislava, Slovakia.

On 29 May, Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces confirmed on Facebook that during the night, Ukraine's air defence units successfully intercepted and destroyed 36 out of 40 Russian Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 30 out of 38 Shahed-136/131 suicide drones. Furthermore, in the afternoon of 29 May, Russian forces launched Iskander cruise and ballistic missiles targeting civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv. However, all 11 Russian missiles were downed by Ukraine's Air Force. The General Staff emphasized that the threat of Russian missile and air strikes persists throughout Ukraine, with 53 air strikes and multiple rocket system attacks occurring in the past 24 hours, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure.

On 29 May, Ukrainian Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration Head, Serhii Lysak, provided the information on Telegram that after Russia shelled the Pokrovske community in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk region, ten civilians were hospitalized, with three in critical condition. Lysak further stated: "The injured individuals suffered gunshot wounds, fractures, lacerations, and brain injuries. Most of the victims were transferred to hospitals in the Zaporizhzhia region."

On 29 May, Ukrainian Chief of Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, published a statement assuring Russia's attempts to intimidate Ukraine would not succeed. The statement came on Telegram by the press service of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence following Russia's failed attempt to launch ballistic missiles. Budanov emphasized that Ukraine remains resilient and focused on its work, promising a forthcoming response. The capital experienced powerful explosions, resulting in one person being hospitalized.

On 29 May, Ukrainian spokesperson, Yaroslav Zhelezniak, posted on Telegram that the Ukrainian Parliament, Verkhovna Rada, has passed Resolution No. 9333, endorsing the National Defense and Security Council's decision to impose long-term sectoral sanctions on Iran. The resolution received support from 328 parliamentarians. The sanctions, lasting 50 years, include a complete trade ban, cessation of resource transit, flight and transportation restrictions, and asset freezing for Iranian residents. Investments, technology transfers, and intellectual property rights transfers to Iran by residents are also prohibited. President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the approval of these measures, which were implemented through Presidential Decree No. 308/2023.

The defence forces of New Zealand have been helping turn motivated Armed Forces of Ukraine recruits into capable soldiers, providing them with skills they'll need to survive and be effective in frontline combat. On 29 May, the Ukrainian General staff of the Armed Forces posted on Facebook that Ukrainian military personnel, under the guidance of New Zealand instructors, practice overcoming a special obstacle lane by simulating battle conditions. The New Zealand government approved a decision to send 120 military instructors to train the Ukrainian personnel in Great Britain. 66 more Defense Forces of New Zealand service members would be sent to the UK to introduce the Ukrainian military.

On 29 May, the Ukraine's CEO of Naftogaz, Oleksiy Chernyshov, told Naftogaz's press service that he believes Ukraine will be able to get through the 2023 to 2024 heating season without importing gas. The company plans to produce 13.5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023 and has certain expectations from private producers. War risks remain, so Naftogaz acceded to the aggregate EU joint gas purchasing mechanism. He stated: "If there is not enough fuel in case of negative developments, the company will be able to quickly order the necessary volumes."

On 29 May, Ukrainian head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council Mykola Lukashuk told a briefing at the Media Center that a woman born in 1972 was killed as a result of a Russian attack on Pokrovske community in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk region. Nine people, including an 11-year-old child, were injured. Two settlements came under fire, and one house was destroyed while 19 were damaged in one of them, and one house was destroyed while 11 were damaged in another. The State Emergency Service teams worked there, putting the fire out. Moreover, all the injured were given medical assistance.

On 29 May, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky informed on Telegram that he had a telephone conversation with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and expressed hope that the country would continue to train Ukrainian demining specialists. Zelensky reported that he thanked Hun Sen for his principled position in support of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukrainian sappers mastered new ALIS mine detectors in Cambodia. Zelensky also informed the Prime Minister about the Ukrainian formula for peace and invited Cambodia to join the concrete steps to implement it.

On 29 May, the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported on Telegram that Ukraine destroyed a Russian depot in the Lyman direction. The statement came as "Border guards' aerial reconnaissance and the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine worked perfectly." As reported earlier, the Defence Forces in the Tavria direction had destroyed a company of Russian personnel, eight military equipment and three ammunition depots over the past 24 hours.

On 29 May, Ukraine's Donetsk regional prosecutor's office reported on Facebook that in Toretsk, Donetsk region, invaders dropped aerial bombs on a gas station and an administrative building, killing one person and injuring nine more. The Russian troops shelled the town of Toretsk using FAB-250 bombs. In addition to the gas station and administrative building, a bank, an educational institution, and vehicles were damaged. Rescuers and law enforcement officers work on the ground. A pre-trial investigation was opened under Part 02 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (violation of the laws and customs of war). The Russian army attacked the Kyiv region with land-based ballistic and cruise missiles from Iskander ballistic missile system. The Ukrainian air defence forces destroyed all targets and means.

On 29 May, the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces reported on Telegram that the Russians fired 11 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles at the Kyiv region. The Ukrainian air defence forces downed all the targets. Several explosions were heard in Kyiv during an air raid alert. Six fragments of downed missiles fell on the territory of the city's districts. In Kyiv's Podilskyi district, medics hospitalized one injured person.

On 29 May, the Ukrainian Navy of the Armed Forces reported on Facebook that six Russian warships were on combat duty in the Black Sea, including two carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles. In the Sea of Azov, there is one Russian warship. In the Mediterranean Sea, up to seven Russian warships are currently on combat duty, including one Kalibr carrier. As of 10:00 on 29 May, Russia kept three missile carriers in the Black Sea, with a total salvo of up to 20 Kalibrs.

On 29 May, Reuters reported that a Ukrainian top aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Kyiv's peace plan is the only solution to end the war in Ukraine, emphasizing that the time for mediation efforts has passed. Ukrainian Chief diplomatic adviser Ihor Zhovkva also expressed Ukraine's disinterest in a ceasefire and instead emphasized the implementation of their peace plan. Zhovkva dismissed various peace initiatives from countries like China, Brazil, the Vatican, and South Africa, stating that the war in Ukraine requires a specific approach. While Ukraine enjoys strong support from Western nations, it aims to garner support from the Global South, which Russia has cultivated ties with during the conflict. Zhovkva mentioned Ukraine's positive reception of its 10-point peace plan at the G7 summit and expressed the desire for G7 leaders to assist in convening a "Peace Summit" involving leaders from the Global South.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 May, Putin congratulated Erdogan on his re-election as head of the state via phone call. The development of Russian-Turkish relations in a constructive and mutually beneficial way during Erdogan's rule were emphasized during the conversation. He said that the election success opens up expansion of bilateral cooperation in various areas. Erdogan expressed gratitude and confirmed his commitment to the joint efforts. 

On 29 May, Putin signed amendments to law 'On martial law' that legalized the forced and controlled movement of citizens from a territory where martial law has been imposed to a territory where martial law has not been imposed. The amendment allowed the holding of referendums and elections in the entire occupied territories or some part of it if the Central Election Committee decides. 

On 29 May, Zelensky said Russia conducted a massive drone attack on Ukraine to date involving 54 Shaheds drones supplied by Iran. Tehran denied that it supplied the drones. He claimed that almost all the drones were shot down. "Unfortunately, there were some hits in Zhytomir Region" in the central part of the country, he added. Thirty six drones were shot down in the Kyiv region in a powerful strike. The Kyiv military administration said that at least one person died, and two others were injured. Several buildings were damaged, and one warehouse caught on fire. The Khmelnitsky administration in the western part of the country said the attack targeted a military facility, causing a fire at a warehouse, and five aircraft were disabled. Moscow's defence ministry is yet to comment on this. 

On 29 May, Lavrov criticized the Pentagon's announcement that said the training would be given to Ukrainian pilots to fly US-made F-16 jets by Denmark and the Netherlands. He warned Washington and its allies in Western Europe by saying that the Russian military has the means to respond to Western fighter jets to Kyiv. Lavrov said: "In European affairs and at European forums, these countries are actively pursuing Washington's line, first and foremost."

The West View    
Responses from the US and Europe  
    
On 29 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted to thank the Parliament and the government of Denmark for the decision to increase the financing of the special investment fund for Ukraine by USD 2.6 billion. At the end of May, Denmark launched a special investment fund for Ukraine for DKK 1 billion. Zelensky wrote that this major contribution would further strengthen the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the short and medium term. He added: "Our strength is in unity!" 

On 29 May, Poland's President Andrzej Duda announced his intention to sign into law a contentious bill establishing a commission to investigate Russian influence in Polish politics, potentially leading to a ten-year ban on individuals holding public office. Duda and the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party claim the commission aims to uncover Kremlin agents. Still, the opposition argues it is a tool to harass political rivals, particularly Donald Tusk, ahead of the crucial parliamentary election. The move is expected to worsen the strained relationship between Warsaw and Brussels, with the European Commission withholding EU pandemic recovery funds due to concerns about Poland's democratic principles. The Polish Parliament narrowly approved the law, and Duda's swift signing dashed hopes of distancing himself from it. 

On 28 May, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated during an interview that if any country wanted to join a Russia-Belarus union, there could be "nuclear weapons for everyone." Lukashenko, a strong ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasized the unique opportunity for Minsk and Moscow to unite, suggesting that other countries could develop similar close relations by joining the Union State of Belarus and Russia. However, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dismissed Lukashenko's invitation, stating that Kazakhstan already had membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and did not require further integration. He also emphasized Kazakhstan's commitment to international agreements like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. 

The Global Fallouts      
Implications of the War
 
On 29 May, Reuters reported that Alexander Volffovich said that the Western countries left Belarus with no option but to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons. He added: "The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is therefore one of the steps of strategic deterrence. If there remains any reason in the heads of Western politicians, of course, they will not cross this red line."

References
"General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Facebook, 29 May 2023
"Ukraine live briefing: Russia continues to strike Kyiv; Ukrainian counteroffensive coming soon, official says," The Washington Post, 29 May 2023
"Operation information as of 18.00 on 29.05.2023 regarding the Russian invasion," Facebook, 29 May 2023
"Serhii Lysak, Ukrainian Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration Head," Telegram, 29 May 2023
"Chergova's test of the terrorist militia of the Russian Federation suddenly recognized the blows - head of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirilo Budanov," Telegram, 29 May 2023
"Parliament approved #9333," Telegram, 29 May 2023
"General Staff of the Armed Forces," Facebook, 29 May 2023 
"Ukraine will become the "power bank" of Europe: interview for NV," naftogaz.com, 29 May 2023
"Occupant strikes hit Pokrovske community in Dnipropetrovsk region, one dead and nine wounded reported – Mykola Lukashuk," Facebook, 29 May 2023
"Zelensky/Official," Telegram, 29 May 2023
"1 military formation of the occupiers in the Limansky direction," Telegram, 29 May 2023
"Donetsk regional prosecutor's office," Facebook, 29 May 2023
"Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces," Telegram, 29 May 2023
"Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Facebook, 29 May 2023
"Ukraine peace plan only way to end Russia's war, says Zelenskiy aide," Reuters, 29 May 2023
Телефонный разговор с Президентом Турции Реджепом Тайипом Эрдоганом,” Kremlin, 23 May 2023 
"Putin legalizes 'elections', deportation on occupied territory of Ukraine," Ukrinform, 29 May 2023
"Ukraine hit by 'one of the largest' Russian drone attacks – Zelensky," RT, 29 May 2023 
"Russian forces will 'react' to F-16 deliveries – Lavrov," RT, 29 May 2023
Volodymyr Zelensky/Twitter,” Twitter, 29 May 2023
"Political uproar in Poland after Duda pledges to sign Kremlin commission law," Politico, 29 May 2023
"Belarus's Lukashenko says there can be 'nuclear weapons for everyone'," Reuters, 29 May 2023
"Belarus official: West left us no choice but to deploy nuclear arms," Reuters, 23 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nithyashree RB

POLAND
President to form a commission to ban people influenced by Russia from office
On 29 May, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that he would sign a commission to uproot people influenced by Russians. The commission will cover the period from 2007 to 2022. If the accused's job involves the spending of public funds, they will be banned for ten years and cannot run for office. On 26 May, the commission law was approved by the Parliament. Duda said the Constitutional Tribunal will review it while the commission begins its work. The Constitutional Tribunal comprises Duda's Law and Justice party members. The opposition responded by calling the commission an instrument to silence the political rivals. Duda's undemocratic move is restricting the EU's pandemic fund to reach Warsaw. (Wojciech Kosc, "Political uproar in Poland after Duda pledges to sign Kremlin commission law," Politico.eu, 29 May 2023)

RUSSIA
Moscow hit by drones, the Mayor says
On 30 May, according to Moscow's Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, multiple drones attacked the capital. The Mayor added that no one was hurt. According to Moscow Region Governor Andrey Vorobyov, the air force has shot down several drones. TASS reported that Kyiv had denied the attack. ("Moscow attacked by drones - mayor," TASS, 30 May 2023)

Russian spy whale spotted in Sweden
On 28 May, a beluga whale accused of espionage was spotted in Hunnbostrand in western Sweden. In 2019, the whale was found wearing a camera harness and "Equipment St.Petersburg" was printed on the camera. The Beluga whale was named Hvaldimir by the Norwegians. The biologists removed the harness. According to the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries, the whale escaped from the Russian training enclosure. The directorate added that it would go towards the ships as it was accustomed to the company of humans. According to OneWhale organization's Sebastian Strand, the whale is moving faster, and the reason might be hormones or loneliness. OneWhale reported that Hvaldimir had lost weight and is moving from the colder waters of Greenland and the Arctic, which it prefers. ("Beluga whale spotted off the Swedish coast previously accused of spying for Russia," Euronews, 30 May 2023)

Foreign Minister visits Kenya
On 29 May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid a surprise visit to Kenya following Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit. Lavrov told the Kenyan lawmakers: "During our visit, we will discuss our cooperation in the trade, investment and economic spheres, humanitarian and cultural questions, education, cooperation in the UN and many other issues," the Russian Foreign Ministry reported. In February 2023, 22 out of 54 member states of the African Union abstained from voting on a resolution that wanted Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. The consecutive visits indicate that Kuleba and Lavrov are garnering support from African countries. ("Lavrov in Kenya on Heels of Ukrainian Counterpart's Trip to Africa," The Moscow Times, 29 May 2023)

SPAIN
Prime Minister calls for snap elections
On 29 May, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that he would dissolve the Parliament and called for snap elections on 23 July. This comes as a response to Sanchez's Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and its ally, Podemos, losing in the regional elections on 28 May. PSOE secured 28.2 per cent, while the Popular Party won 31.5 per cent. ("Spain's PM calls snap election after his Socialist party takes a beating in regional vote," France 24, 29 May 2023)

TURKEY
Elections were free but not fair, says international observers, quotes Euronews
On 30 May, Euronews quoted international observers' opinion that Turkey's Presidential elections were free but unfair. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) special coordinator Farah Karimi, at a news conference, said that "biased media coverage and a lack of a level playing field gave an unjustified advantage to the incumbent." According to Euronews, about 90 per cent of the Turkish media is in the hands of the government or its supporters. Only a handful of opposition newspapers remain in print while the rest transitioned to online editions. Erdogan received nearly 33 hours of airtime in the state-run TV station while his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu received only 32 minutes, according to the opposing members of the broadcasting watchdog. ("Turkish election 'free but not fair', say international observers," Euronews, 30 May 2023)

UKRAINE
Moscow attacks Kyiv; Kyiv retaliates
On 30 May, Russia launched a pre-dawn drone attack on Kyiv. Three people got injured, and one person died. More than 20 people were evacuated. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that it launched a series of air strikes targeting Ukrainian air bases. They also claimed that the attacks destroyed command posts, radars, aircraft and ammunition stockpiles. According to the Ukrainian military administration, 20 Shahed drones were destroyed in Moscow's third attack in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed a drone attack that caused "insignificant damage" to several buildings. Residents of two buildings were evacuated; no deaths were reported. Chief Diplomatic Advisor to President Zelenskyy said that Russia's war in Ukraine could only be ended with the peace plan Kyiv proposed as the time for mediation is long gone. ("Ukraine war: Moscow hit by drones, Kyiv strikes, peace plan only way to end fighting," Euronews, 30 May 2023; Guy Faulconbridge, "What do we know about the drone attacks on Moscow?," Reuters, 30 May 2023; Lidia Kelly, "Ukraine says it destroyed more than 20 drones in Russia-launched attack on Kyiv," Reuters, 30 May 2023; "Moscow attacked by drones – Mayor," RT News, 30 May 2023)

REGIONAL
Greece joins Hungary against the new European sanctions
On 26 May, Greece joined Hungary against the new set of European sanctions, which has been discussed since 08 May 2023, reported Politico.eu. Ukraine has created a list of companies which, according to it, are war sponsors. Athens and Budapest want their companies to be taken off the list as a condition to approve the new sanctions. An EU diplomat Joep Borrell is to look into Kyiv's list. On 22 May, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said that the sanctions must be decided by 26 June 2023, when the Foreign Affairs Council meeting will be held. (Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi, and Leonie Kijewski, "New sanctions against Russia stuck in limbo over Greek-Hungarian protest," Politico.eu, 26 May 2023)


29 May 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #528

Turkey's Elections: Erdogan Wins | War in Ukraine: Day 458 & 459

Turkey's Elections: Erdogan Wins

Photo : MURAT CETIN MUHURDAR / AFP / Le Monde


Daily Focus
By Nithyashree RB

Turkey's Elections: Erdogan Wins
On 28 May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the run-off elections securing 52.16 per cent. The opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu secured 47.84 per cent. Erdogan will be ruling Turkey for the third decade. Following his victory, Erdogan said: "I thank our nation, which gave us the responsibility of governing again for the next five years." He reaffirmed his party's pro-family objectives and called the opposition "LGBTQ sympathizers." Kilicdaroglu, after the election, said that they were "unfair" and added the ruling party controlled the media.

Erdogan-led Justice and Development Party (AKP) party won 267 seats out of 600 in the Parliament. The Kilicdaroglu-led opposition party, Republican People's Party (CHP), won 169 seats in the first round of elections. On 14 May, the first round of elections concluded with Erdogan securing 49.5 per cent and Kilicdaroglu securing 44.9 per cent.

On 22 May, the third-place contender in Turkey's first round of presidential elections, Sinan Ogan, said he would endorse Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On 24 May, Victory Party leader Umit Ozdag endorsed the opposition, Republican People's Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Throughout the campaigns, Erdogan accused Kilicdaroglu of colluding with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), while Kilicdaroglu was anti-migrant and pro-LGBTQ and expressed pro-European interests.

For years, opposition parties tried to topple Erdogan. Initially, AKP's alliance with the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish HUDA-PAR jeopardized his win. Despite the inflation, which surged 86 per cent in 2022, the devastating earthquake and growing opposition, Erdogan has secured a third term. Erdogan has said that this will be his last term.

Responses from across the world
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Erdogan over a call. He said: "The election victory was a natural result of your selfless work as the head of the Republic of Turkey, clear evidence of the support of the Turkish people for your efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and conduct an independent foreign policy."

US President Joe Biden tweeted, "I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges."

The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, tweeted, "Congratulations to President Erdogan on re-election and to Türkiye's voters on high turnout, reflecting a long democratic tradition. Türkiye is a valued NATO Ally and partner. I look forward to our continued work together with the government chosen by the Turkish people."

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg tweeted, "Congratulations President (Erdogan) on your re-election. I look forward to continuing our work together and preparing for the NATO summit in July."
 
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani tweeted, "My dear brother Recep Tayyip Erdogan, congratulations on your victory. I wish you success in your new term, and that you achieve through it what the Turkish people aspire to in terms of progress and prosperity, and progress and growth for our strong bilateral relations."
 
Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz tweeted, "My dear brother Recep Tayyip Erdogan, congratulations on your victory. I wish you success in your new term, and that you achieve through it what the Turkish people aspire to in terms of progress and prosperity, and progress and growth for our strong bilateral relations."
 
French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted, "France and Turkey have huge challenges to face together. Return of peace to Europe, future of our Euro-Atlantic Alliance, Mediterranean Sea. With President Erdogan, whom I congratulate on his re-election, we will continue to move forward."
 
EU Council President Charles Michel tweeted, "France and Turkey have huge challenges to face together. Return of peace to Europe, future of our Euro-Atlantic Alliance, Mediterranean Sea. With President Erdogan, whom I congratulate on his re-election, we will continue to move forward."
 
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tweeted, "France and Turkey have huge challenges to face together. Return of peace to Europe, future of our Euro-Atlantic Alliance, Mediterranean Sea. With President Erdogan, whom I congratulate on his re-election, we will continue to move forward."
 
Israel President Issac Herzog tweeted, "Congratulations to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey on his election victory. I am convinced that we will continue to work together to strengthen and expand the good ties between Turkey and Israel."
 
Pakistan Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, tweeted, "Heartiest congratulations to my dear brother H.E. President Erdogan on his historic re-election as President, Republic of Turkiye. He is one of few world leaders whose politics has been anchored in public service. He has been a pillar of strength for the oppressed Muslims & a fervent voice for their inalienable rights."

References
"Recep Tayyip Erdogan is favoured to win Turkey's Presidential elections," The Economist, 26 May 2023
Guy Faulconbridge, "Putin congratulates 'dear friend' Erogan for winning Turkish election," Reuters, 29 May 2023
Elcin Poyrazlar, “Turkey’s Erdogan wins again,” BBC News, 29 May 2023
"World leaders congratulate Turkey's Erdogan on election win," Al Jazeera, 28 May 2023


Daily Focus
By Rishika Yadav

Kyiv Day: Drone attacks 
On 28 May, Kyiv Day was celebrated to mark the anniversary of the city's founding in Ukraine. This year, the day was marred by a massive Russian drone attack on the city. The attack came on the eve of Kyiv Day and was part of a new Russian air campaign targeting Ukrainian counter-offensive capabilities. The head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office said on Telegram: "The history of Ukraine is a long-standing irritant for complex Russians." 

This note looks into three issues.
1. The drone attacks.
Ukrainian officials reported the largest drone attack on Kyiv since the war with Russia began, ahead of the city's founding anniversary. Ukraine's general staff reported downing 58 out of 59 Iranian-made "Shahed" drones launched by Russia. The attack targeted military facilities and critical infrastructure, causing casualties and fires. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commended the air defence troops for their response. Despite the increasing intensity of Russian airstrikes, Ukraine's robust air defence systems, including US-made Patriot and Nasams, have provided confidence in countering the attacks.

2. Damaging the historical relics
According to Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitchko, buildings caught fire in the historic neighbourhood of Perchersk in the city center, which is famous for its monastery containing the relics of saints. However, Ukraine has successfully thwarted Russian air attacks with the help of sophisticated Western-supplied systems. In May, Ukraine prevented an intense Russian air attack on Kyiv by shooting down all missiles aimed at the capital.

3. Lack of time to train troops
Ukraine has been diligently preparing for a counter-offensive against Russia, investing months in planning and receiving military support from Western allies while training its troops. In an interview, the Ukrainian secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, revealed to the BBC that they are fully prepared to seize the historic opportunity of becoming an independent, prominent European nation. Although he didn't provide a specific date, Danilov emphasized the significance of this moment and expressed determination not to let it slip away, even so, there is not much time to train troops. He acknowledged the withdrawal of some Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut but warned that they are regrouping in other areas and will continue their fight. Regarding Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, Danilov remained composed, considering it as expected.

References
Marc Santora and Eric Schmitt, "'It's Time': Ukraine's Top Commander Says Counter-offensive Is Imminent," The New York Times, 27 May 2023
James Landale, "Oleksiy Danilov interview: Ukraine counter-offensive 'ready to begin'," BBC News, 27 May 2023
Matthew Luxmoore, "Russia Launches Largest Drone Attack on Kyiv Since Start of War," The Wall Street Journal, 28 May 2023
"Ukraine's defense forces destroy 52 out of 54 Shahed drones during night raid," Ukrinform, 28 May 2023
Joe Barnes, "Russia launches largest drone attack on Kyiv since war began," The Telegraph, 28 May 2023
Leila Sackur, "Kyiv hit by massive Russian drone attack as city marks its founding," NBC news, 28 May 2023 
Valentyn Ogirenko and Gleb Garanich, "Russia unleashes largest drone attack on Ukrainian capital ahead of Kyiv Day," Reuters, 28 May 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 458 & 459
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 27 May, according to a report by the Ukrainian State Border Service, in Bakhmut, Ukrainian border guards successfully targeted and neutralized two enemy intruders, while three others were injured. After detecting enemy infantry movement, the border unit launched a mortar attack on a dilapidated building where the enemy had taken shelter. The strike destroyed their hiding place and resulted in casualties. In the broader context, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have eliminated approximately 206,200 Russian invaders since 24 February 2022, including 480 individuals in the past day. 
 
On 27 May, Ukrainian secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, revealed to the BBC, in an interview, that Ukraine is prepared to launch a prolonged anticipated counter-offensive against Russia. While he did not provide a specific date, he stated: "We have to understand that that historic opportunity that is given to us - by God - to our country, we cannot lose, so we can truly become an independent, big European country." He confirmed that some Wagner mercenaries withdrew from Bakhmut, but noted that they were regrouping in other locations and would continue fighting. Danilov expressed calmness regarding Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus, stating it is not surprising. 

On 28 May, Ukrainian officials reported the largest drone attack on Kyiv since the war with Russia began, ahead of the city's founding anniversary. Ukraine's general staff reported downing 58 out of 59 Iranian-made "Shahed" drones launched by Russia. The attack targeted military facilities and critical infrastructure, causing casualties and fires. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commended the air defence troops for their response. Despite the increasing intensity of Russian airstrikes, Ukraine's robust air defence systems, including US-made Patriot and Nasams, have provided confidence in countering the attacks. 
 
On 27 May, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced on Telegram that the Archer FH77 BW L52 155mm self-propelled artillery system, manufactured in Sweden, would be delivered to Ukraine during the summer. The ministry stated that the Archer, known for its legendary status, would be used to counter Russian occupation forces. With its crew and engine protected by bulletproof armor, the system has a firing range of 30 km, extendable to 40 km with active-reactive shells and up to 60 km with guided Excalibur shells. It boasts a maximum rate of fire of nine shots per minute, and its mobility and speed will enhance Ukraine's defence capabilities and safeguard lives.
 
On 27 May, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov on Telegram, Ukrainian soldiers successfully destroyed Russia's Grad multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the Army of Drones near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. The statement came as: "After firing at the positions of our military, the Russians tried to quickly escape from the scene of the crime and hide. But this is difficult to do when Pegasi is working."
 
On 27 May, the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces provided updated information on the losses inflicted on Russian troops in the ongoing war. The revised figures, posted on the General Staff's Facebook page, stated: "Ukraine's defence forces destroyed 3,794 enemy tanks, 7,449 armored combat vehicles, 3,414 artillery systems, 574 multiple launch rocket systems, 313 warplanes, 298 helicopters, 2,990 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 1,036 cruise missiles, and 6,183 trucks and fuel tankers of the Russian army." The General Staff emphasized that these numbers are subject to adjustments based on ongoing intelligence data.
 
On 28 May, according to a statement by Kyiv's mayor, Vitali Klitschko, one civilian died in the Ukrainian capital after a significant drone attack. Over 20 drones heading towards the city were reportedly shot down by air defences. The mayor urged residents to seek shelter as the attack was described as massive. Additionally, a fire broke out in the Holosiivskyi district. Russian forces have targeted Kyiv throughout May, while reports of drone attacks in Russia's border regions have also increased. Moscow has blamed Kyiv and its Western supporters, but Ukraine has denied involvement.
 
On 27 May, Kyiv Post reported that a Kyiv-based air defence team commander, Atlas, understands the gravity of his role in intercepting missiles and drones. With the potential consequences of missed targets, his team's mission is to ensure people can sleep peacefully at night. Equipped with Western-provided air defence systems, Ukraine's forces have successfully shot down most of the aerial threats from Russia. Atlas, who witnessed the vulnerability of older systems during the initial invasion, experienced a transformation after receiving accelerated training on the Crotale air defence system. While they have destroyed multiple targets, misses are painful reminders of the ongoing barrages. The enemy adapts, requiring constant vigilance and adaptability.

The Mocow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 May, Prigozhin said that the Kremlin had banned reports about him on state media. He said that it didn't mention his name in the thirty-six word statement congratulating Wagner and the forces which came ten hours after the city's capture. He warned that such a misleading approach of shutting the mouths and ears of the people would receive a backlash from Russian people within months. He perceived that his victory speech after the capture of the city of Artyomovsk was not aired on the media for twenty hours. He mentioned that 72000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, 10000 to 140000 were injured in the 'Meat grinder' operation. 
 
On 28 May, Putin ordered to secure the border to ensure the fast movement of military and civilians to Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, which are under Moscow now. It includes moving military and civilian vehicles, food, humanitarian aid, and building materials to Russia's new subjects. 
 
On 28 May, Krasnodar region's officials said that the Russian air defence system thwarted the attempt of several drone attacks on the Ilsky oil refinery at the Black Sea port. No damage was reported. Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the attack. 
 
On 27 May, the Russian Defence Ministry said they intercepted two long-range Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine from the UK. It also said that they intercepted short-range US-built HIMARS-launched and HARM missiles. Twelve drones were shot down, which attacked oil pipeline installations inside Russian territory, the ministry stated. Ukraine didn't make any statements acknowledging responsibility for the attack. 
 
On 27 May, Russian officials and media reported a series of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting pipelines deep inside Russia and on a station serving at Druzhba pipelines station in Tver region. Drones crashed near the Erokhino village, 500 km from the Ukraine border. Gladkov said that the Ukrainian shelling at Belgorod region killed at least one and injured a girl of fifteen and a boy of seventeen. The local governor of the Kursh region said that a construction worker was killed in Ukrainian shelling. There was no public acknowledgement from the Ukrainian defence ministry.  
 
On 27 May, Russia dismissed US criticism of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Moscow countered by pointing towards Washington's decades-long nuclear weapon deployments in Europe. The Russian embassy in the US said: "It is the sovereign right of Russia and Belarus to ensure their security by means we deem necessary amidst a large-scale hybrid war unleashed by Washington against us. The measures we undertake are fully consistent with our international legal obligations."

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe     
 
On 28 May, the UK Defence Intelligence updated that in recent weeks, public discourse in Russia has shifted from punishing critics to urging citizens to support the war effort through personal sacrifices actively. State-backed media and business groups have requested a six-day workweek without extra pay, while propagandist Margarita Simonyan suggested adding two extra hours in munitions factories after regular jobs. This reflects a Soviet-style sense of societal obligation and emphasizes the leadership's belief in the importance of economic performance in winning the war. 
 
On 27 May, BBC reported that according to the German foreign ministry, Russia would expel hundreds of Germans working in education and cultural sectors next month, including teachers at the German school in Moscow and staff at the Goethe Institute. The decision comes amid deteriorating relations between Russia and Germany following tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats. The move reflects the strained ties between the two countries since Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany has responded by ensuring a minimal presence in Russia while maintaining diplomatic relations. Other EU countries have also expelled Russian diplomats, further straining the relationship between Russia and Germany.
 
On 28 May, The Guardian gave an analysis of US President Joe Biden's cautious and indecisive approach to Ukraine. It is reported in contrast to the bold leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which raises concerns about the durability of US support. Biden's recent reversal on supplying F-16 combat jets exemplifies this issue. While Zelenskiy requested the planes to bolster Ukraine's defence against Russian aggression, Biden and his advisors hesitated due to fear of escalating tensions. However, experienced former US generals proposed humanitarian no-fly zones, which were rejected. Biden's chronic indecision has delayed crucial military supplies in the past, prolonging the conflict. Zelenskiy's perseverance and lobbying have ultimately driven Western support for Ukraine, highlighting his influential role in shaping the strategic conversation.
 
On 27 May, Ukrinform reported that according to Budapest's social psychologist and executive director of Political Capital, Péter Krekó, opinion polls in Hungary revealed a significant pro-Ukrainian segment. Political Capital, with support from the European Commission, is countering disinformation through fact-checking and truthful information dissemination. Their media platform has reached over a million people, and they conduct surveys and social media monitoring to study Hungarian sentiment. Media influence, stemming from the Orban government's effective control over more than 500 organizations, has shifted public opinion, with the "peace" narrative dominating after the recent election. Krekó emphasizes the need to empower people with media literacy tools to combat disinformation effectively.

The Global Fallouts       
Implications of the War 

On 28 May, Kuleba denied reports saying Li Hui proposed handing over Ukrainian territories to Russia. He said Ukraine would continue dialogues with China according to three principles: "The first is respect for territorial integrity. The second is no initiatives that involve any territorial concessions by Ukraine. And the third is no frozen conflict."
 
On 27 May, the International Bar Association supported the resolution for establishing a special court to address the crime of aggression in Ukraine. A tweet by Ukraine's prosecutor General's office expressing gratitude said: "Justice should not be limited to punishing ordinary performers. Their leaders, who used their power to unleash this flywheel of evil, should be brought before the court. The Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression is the best possible tool to put an end to the impunity of the top of this criminal regime."

References
"Border guards-mortars eliminated a group of invaders in Bakhmut," dpsu.gov.ua, 27 May 2023
"Border guards decimate group of invaders in Bakhmut," Ukrinform, 27 May 2023
Marc Santora and Eric Schmitt, "It's Time': Ukraine's Top Commander Says Counter-offensive Is Imminent," The New York Times, 27 May 2023 
James Landale, "Oleksiy Danilov interview: Ukraine counter-offensive 'ready to begin'," BBC News, 27 May 2023
Matthew Luxmoore, "Russia Launches Largest Drone Attack on Kyiv Since Start of War," The Wall Street Journal, 28 May 2023
"Ukraine's defense forces destroy 52 out of 54 Shahed drones during night raid," Ukrinform, 28 May 2023
Joe Barnes, "Russia launches largest drone attack on Kyiv since war began," The Telegraph, 28 May 2023 
Leila Sackur, "Kyiv hit by massive Russian drone attack as city marks its founding," NBC news, 28 May 2023 
Valentyn Ogirenko and Gleb Garanich, "Russia unleashes largest drone attack on Ukrainian capital ahead of Kyiv Day," Reuters, 28 May 2023
"Ministry of Defence, Ukraine," Telegram, 27 May 2023 
"Ukraine to receive Sweden's Archer artillery system this summer," Ukrinform, 28 May 2023
"The Russians have minus one "Grad" on the outskirts of Bakhmut,Telegram, 27 May 2023; "Ukrainian military destroy Russia's Grad with Army of Drones' UAVs in Bakhmut," Ukrinform, 27 May 2023
"General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Facebook, 27 May 2023; "Ukraine's General Staff clarifies losses of Russian troops," Ukrinform, 27 May 2023
"Massive' Russian Drone Attack Kills One in Kyiv,Kyiv Post, 28 May 2023
"Life and Death Weigh on Ukraine Air Defence Teams," Kyiv Post, 27 May 2023
"Prigozhin says Kremlin banned reporting about him on state media," Reuters, 28 May 2023
"Putin orders stronger Russian border security," Reuters, 28 May 2023
"Russia thwarts drone attack on Krasnodar oil refinery, officials say," Reuters, 28 May 2023
"Russian forces intercept two British Storm Shadow missiles, defence ministry says," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"Ukraine targets Russian oil pipeline installations with drones - Russian media," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"Don't lecture us on nuclear deployments, Russia tells US," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 28 May 2023," Kyiv Post, 28 May 2023
"Hundreds of expelled Germans set to leave Russia," BBC News, 27 May 2023
Simon Tisdall, "The moment has arrived: Biden must give Ukraine all it needs to win," The Guardian, 28 May 2023
"Expert: There is powerful pro-Ukrainian segment in Hungary," Ukrinform, 27 May 2023
"Kuleba: China's special envoy did not propose handing over occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia," Reuters, 28 May 2023
"International Bar Association Urges Creation of Special Tribunal for Aggression Against Ukraine," Kyiv Post, 28 May 2023


In Brief
By Sreeja JS and Nithyashree RB

BELARUS
Minsk substantiates Russia's nuclear weapon deployment
On 29 May, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry, the second unit of the S-400 system arrived in Belarus. Russia decided to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus on 25 May. In 1991, Belarus returned its nuclear weapon as the US offered security and promised to avoid Western sanctions. On 29 May, according to Belarus's Security Council's secretary Alexander Volfovich, the West's inefficiency to protect Belarus has pushed them to encourage the deployment. Russia substantiated the move by accusing the West of initiating a proxy war against Moscow. Volfovich said: "The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is, therefore, one of the steps of strategic deterrence. If there remains any reason in the heads of Western politicians, of course, they will not cross this red line." On 28 May, according to Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko, deploying Russian nukes allowed a unique relationship between Minsk and Moscow. He added that concerned countries should join the Russia-Belarus Union so that there would be nuclear weapons for everyone. (Lidia Kelly, "Belarus's Lukashenko says there can be 'nuclear weapons for everyone'," Reuters, 29 May 2023; Ron Popeski, "Belarus official: West left us no choice but to deploy nuclear arms," Reuters, 29 May 2023)

NETHERLANDS
More than 1500 arrested in a protest organized by Extinction Rebellion
On 27 May, BBC News reported that about 1579 climate protesters were arrested by police for blocking A12, a major motorway in Hague. Extinction Rebellion organized the protest and demanded an end to fossil fuel subsidies. According to the police, most protestors were released except 40 people, who would be prosecuted. Extinction Rebellion accused police of using water cannons, but the police refuted by saying that the protestors were allowed to move before firing water cannons. It is the seventh time Extinction Rebellion protestors were blocking A12, which is prohibited for protests under the new rules by the mayor. ("Extinction Rebellion protest in Netherlands ends with 1,500 arrested," BBC News, 27 May 2023)

SPAIN
Socialists suffer heavy losses against conservatives in the local elections
On 28 May, in the local elections, Socialists suffered heavy losses against the Conservative People's Party(PP), with around 95 per cent of the votes counted. According to the results, in the 12 regions where elections are held, only three would retain the Socialist dominance in narrow margins, with the rest going to the conservatives. The gains of the PP indicate that the current left-wing ruling coalition led by Partido Socialista Obrero Español(PSOE) could be removed if the results are replicated in the national elections in December 2023. The main setback for the Socialists came from their losses in Valencia, Aragon and Balearic Island regions and the Southwestern region of Extremadura, one of the most important Socialist fiefdoms. Leadership in the Canary Islands will be decided by pacts, but PSOE has little chance to retain its hold. The counting also reflects the return of the two-party system dominated by PSOE and PP after a decade of greater involvement by smaller parties, which have largely lost their seats to the PP. (Jessica Jones, "Spain's conservative PP elbows Socialists out in regional elections," Reuters, 28 May 2023)

SWITZERLAND
Silence dominates as Switzerland recovers from the fall of Credit Suisse, reports Politico
On 26 May, Politico commented, "the informal code of silence dominates," on the aftermath of the collapse of Credit Suisse in March had UBS did not intervene to take it over. According to Politico.eu, there is a reason for this silence. The nation known for its utmost discretion in its role as banker to the rich is still trying to figure out what went wrong and what to do with its customers. Public opinion is against the Swiss politicians, and the elections are around the corner. The Parliament rejected the government's request to approve an emergency credit line following the takeover, exerting its authority. It will decide in June to decide on whether to launch a parliamentary commission to summon those involved for questioning. The Swiss authorities are under tough scrutiny over why they did not step in earlier even though they prevented the bank's collapse. (Hannah Brenton, "Silence speaks volumes as Switzerland still reels from bank meltdown," Politico.eu, 26 May 2023)

UKRAINE
President introduces bill to sanction Iran
On 28 May, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced a bill to sanction Iran for 50 years in response to Tehran's weapon supplies to Moscow, says Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff. The bill would impose trade, financial and technology sanctions against Iran and its citizens. It would also stop the transit of Iranian goods through Ukraine and the use of its air space. According to Kyiv and its allies, Tehran has been supplying arms to Russia, including hundreds of drones, since the invasion last year. Tehran rejects the allegations. (Max Hunder and Frances Kerry, "Ukraine's Zelenskiy introduces Iran sanctions bill," Reuters, 28 May 2023)

Overnight Russian drone attacks damage Odesa port
On 29 May, the Ukrainian military said that the overnight Russian drone attack damaged some key infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa, crucial for its grain exports. It further said that the Russians used Iranian-made Shahed drones for attacks but did not divulge further details of the attack and its impact on grain exports. (Pavel Polityuk and Robert Birsel, "Russia damages Ukraine's Odesa port in overnight drone attack - military," Reuters, 29 May 2023)

Moscow launches its largest drone attacks on Kyiv
On 28 May, Russia launched its largest airstrikes on Kyiv using drones and cruise missiles. The drone attacks took place on the last Sunday of May when Kyiv marked the anniversary of its official founding 1,541 years ago. The attacks came amid the speculation of a looming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Overnight strikes were carried out also in the Kharkiv region, killing two people, according to the regional governor. The Ukrainian military said the defence forces shot down more than 40 targets. (Gregorio Sorgi, "Kyiv hit by largest drone attack of the war, Ukraine says," Politico.eu, 28 May 2023; Lidia Kelly, "Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Moscow unleashes strings of large air raids on Kyiv," Reuters, 29 May 2023)

Wagner's head Prigozhin complains Kremlin's negligence in reporting him on state media
On 28 May, Wagner's head Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that he was convinced senior Kremlin officials had "forbidden" reporting about him on state media. He asserted that such an approach could bring backlash from the Russian people. 61-year-old Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, has been making headlines for his notoriety in the 15-month war in Ukraine. According to Reuters, nicknamed "Putin's butcher," he captured Bakhmut earlier this month. Still, the state media downplayed his role in the victory by ignoring the city's fall for 20 hours and not airing his victory speech. It took the Kremlin 10 hours to release a 36-word statement congratulating Wagner and the armed forces for "liberating" Bakhmut. He also said 72,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died, with another 100,000 to 140,000 injured. However, despite the uncertainty in numbers, Kyiv said Russia's losses in Bakhmut were large as it was the attacking side. Kyiv further insisted that its forces still control a small part of the city. (Guy Falconbridge, "Prigozhin says Kremlin banned reporting about him on state media," Reuters, 28 May 2023)


27 May 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #527

Protests in Serbia: Rejecting Kosovo's independence | War in Ukraine: Day 457

Photo : AP Photo/Marko Drobnjakovic


Daily Focus
By Rishka Yadav

Protests in Serbia: Rejecting Kosovo's independence 
On 26 May, a large gathering took place in the center of Belgrade, with tens of thousands supporting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. A rally was held to counter anti-government protests after two mass shootings that claimed 18 lives. This was the third protest this month. Speakers at the "Serbia of Hope" rally included Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. The rally featured Serbian flags and expressions of support for Vucic. Supporters attended from various regions, endorsing Vucic's pursuit of peace in Serbia. The President of the Bosnian Serb Republic told the crowd: "They attack us because we want peace in Ukraine, they attack us because we believe in family values and because we refuse to be told what to do. Serbia led by Vucic we trust and we support. Long live Serbia, long live Republika Srpska, long live Russia."

Following are the three issues:
First, the outrage over the pro-government media’s promotion of violence. The May 23 protests were triggered by public outrage over the promotion of violence in pro-government media and a perceived lack of security. There is a demand for the resignation of officials, revocation of licenses for TV channels airing violent content and fake news, and increased accountability and transparency in the security sector and judiciary. The protests reflect a broader call for change and reform in Serbian society. It coincides with the protests against the government that erupted after two mass shootings in early May 2023. The protesters have demanded the resignation of several officials and the withdrawal of licenses for some TV channels.

Second, the dispute with Kosovo over its independence and sovereignty. The Serbs living in the northern region of Kosovo, who identify with Belgrade as their capital, do not accept Kosovo's declaration of independence. Additionally, they are unwilling to work with the newly-elected ethnic Albanian mayor. The UK, France, Italy, Germany, and the US have jointly criticized Kosovo's decision to forcefully access municipal buildings in northern Kosovo. The countries said in a joint statement posted on the British government's website "We condemn Kosovo's decision to force access to municipal buildings in northern Kosovo despite our call for restraint. We call on Kosovo's authorities to immediately step back and de-escalate, and to closely coordinate with EULEX (the EU mission) and KFOR (NATO's mission in Kosovo." Concerns are raised about Serbia's heightened readiness of its armed forces at the border. Following clashes between protesters and police in a mostly Serb town in Kosovo, Serbian President Vucic has placed the army on full combat alert. Tear gas was used to disperse protesters attempting to block an ethnic Albanian mayor from entering office. The chief of staff of Kosovo's President Vjosa Osmani, Blerim Vela, accused "illegal and criminal structures" in Serbia of escalating tensions. US Senator Chris Murphy expressed surprise at the incident and urged an immediate end to the provocation. The protests followed heavily boycotted local elections, with a turnout of only 3.47 per cent. 
 
Third, it reflects the discontent of some Serbs with the government. Over the past few years, there has been an increase in dissatisfaction with the government led by President Aleksandar Vucic, due to concerns about his accumulation of power, media censorship, corruption, and the erosion of democratic values. Protests and boycotts against Vucic's rule have been met with repression and intimidation. His stance on Kosovo has also drawn criticism due to his contradictory statements, expressing willingness to compromise while maintaining nationalist rhetoric. Calls were made for Vucic and certain ministers to resign, prompting the ruling elite to organize the rally. Vucic announced his resignation as party leader and emphasized his role as President of all citizens.

References
Serbia sends army to Kosovo border as protest escalates,” Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2023
Serbia president puts military on combat alert, orders army to move closer to Kosovo border,” Reuters, 26 May 2023
UK, France, Italy, Germany and U.S. condemn Kosovo violence,” Reuters, 27 May 2023
Tens of thousands gather in Serbia in Vucic's show of power,” Reuters, 27 May 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 457
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 26 May, a medical clinic in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was hit by a Russian missile, resulting in two deaths and over 30 injuries. The attack occurred after intense shelling across central Ukraine. The strike hit Dnipropetrovsk City hospital  and a veterinary clinic, causing fires and extensive damage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack as a "pure atrocity." In the overnight attack, Ukraine reported shooting down 17 missiles and 31 drones launched from Russia, with targets including Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. In response, Russia claimed that Ukrainian drones caused damage in the southern city of Krasnodar. Ukraine's Defence Ministry labeled the attack a serious war crime, while Russia claimed to have targeted Ukrainian ammunition depots. 

On 26 May, Ukraine's defense ministry alleged that Russia intends to simulate a major nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia power station to impede Ukraine's planned counteroffensive. The ministry claimed Russia would shell the plant and fake a radiation leak, triggering an international investigation and halting hostilities. However, no evidence was provided, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has not reported any disruption. Both sides have accused each other of planning provocative actions involving nuclear incidents in the past. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 26 May, Der Spiegel reported new evidence showing the links between the Ukrainian nationals and Nord Stream pipelines explosion. Ukrainian nationals rented a yacht reportedly used by the team of divers for the sabotage as per the metadata collected from the emails. The traces of explosives and fake documents used for hiring the yacht were also cited in the report. The involvement of Kyiv could be seen if the sabotage were carried out by Ukrainian commandos, the report said. 
 
On 26 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that Moscow would cut diplomatic ties with the UK. The action is a response to British involvement in "operational-tactical planning by the [Ukrainian] military, including sabotage, other operations, direct provision of cyber-security, [and] deployment of mercenaries" in Russia, the ministry stated. 
 
On 26 May, Financial Times reported that Gas consumption will decrease by sixty billion cubic meters this year compared to the average for the last five years. "More than the gas volumes we still foresee to import from Russia in 2023, both pipeline and [liquefied natural gas]," reads the document seen by the FT. This resulted from a series of emergency laws adopted by the fourteen EU countries last year in a bid to decrease the reliance on Russian supplies. 

The West View      
Responses from the US and Europe   
 
On 26 May, the CNN news reported that the attack on central Ukraine by Russia has sparked strong condemnation from Kyiv and its Western allies. According to a statement from the French Foreign Ministry: "France denounces the strikes as "war crimes" that must not go unpunished," emphasizing the deliberate targeting of civilian areas in violation of international humanitarian law. Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed outrage at the actions of Russian attacks and assured ongoing efforts to mitigate the aftermath and aid the victims. 
 
On 26 May, BBC news reported that the US had imposed sanctions on the local leader of the Wagner private military group in Mali, Ivan Maslov, citing concerns that the Russian mercenary group is attempting to acquire military equipment for the conflict in Ukraine through its activities in Mali and other African nations. The US treasury department has alleged that Wagner employees may be involved in procuring mines, drones, and radar equipment. Wagner has been providing support to Mali's military government in combating Islamist insurgents. The US claims that the group may exploit Mali's surplus of arms, acquired after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
 
On 26 May, Euronews reported that several European countries, including Slovenia, France, Belgium, and the UK, have recognized the Holodomor, a devastating famine in Ukraine during the Soviet era, as a genocide. This acknowledgment holds significance because it highlights the magnitude of the tragedy and the crimes committed against humanity. A member of Slovenia's Social Democrat party, Jani Prednik, described the Holodomor as one of the most significant humanitarian catastrophes and crimes of the 20th century. The UK's Conservative MP, Pauline Latham, drew parallels between the forced confiscation of crops during the famine and Russia's current seizure of Ukrainian grain on occupied Ukrainian soil, emphasizing the need to address war crimes and crimes against humanity. The interest in Soviet crimes targeting Ukrainians has grown since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as it brings attention to historical moments where Ukrainians were specifically targeted. However, legal experts caution that parliamentary declarations of genocide may not carry the same weight as court rulings. 
 
On 25 May, the Guardian reported on British officials' confirmation about Russian state assets likely to remain immobilized even after the war in Ukraine ends, until Russia agrees to pay compensation for the damage caused. The Council of Europe summit established a digital register of damage as a first step towards an international compensation mechanism for victims of Russian aggression. While the UK has been cautious about seizing Russian assets outright, an alternative strategy is emerging where assets are retained as leverage until Russia agrees to compensation. This approach aims to achieve the objective of funding Ukraine's reconstruction without breaching international law. Seizing rather than freezing assets is considered a violation of international law, but freezing them as a countermeasure to induce compliance and as leverage for negotiations is deemed permissible. Ukraine, however, argues for direct seizure of assets to prioritize justice over state immunity.
 
On 26 May, the EU strongly criticized the agreement between Russia and Belarus that allows for the deployment of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus. EU's High Representative of the Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, condemned the move, stating it would lead to a dangerous escalation. Borrell emphasized that this decision violated several international agreements and called on Russia to uphold its commitments. He also accused the Belarusian regime of supporting Russia's illegal aggression against Ukraine and urged Belarus to reverse its decisions and uphold sovereignty. 

The Global Fallouts
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 26 May, Tokyo imposed additional sanctions on Russia as a response to the Russian deal to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. It involves export ban to Russian military-related organizations and assets of individuals and organizations. Hirokazu said : "Japan's government demands Russia and Belarus stop actions that further escalate tensions as we continue to watch the development with strong concern."

References
James Waterhouse & Antoinette Radford, "Ukraine war: Russia destroys hospital in latest missile attack," BBC News, 27 May 2023; Olena Harmash and Max Hunder, "Russian attack on Ukrainian clinic kills two and wounds 30, Kyiv says," Reuters, 26 May 2023
"Ukraine says Russia plans to simulate accident at nuclear power plant," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"New Ukraine link in Nord Stream sabotage case – Der Spiegel," RTNews, 26, May 2023
"Russia could cut diplomatic ties with UK – Foreign Ministry to RT," RTNews, 26 May 2023
"EU gas consumption to fall sharply – FT," RTNews, 26 May 2023
Sana Noor Haq, Maria Kostenko, Sebastian Shukla and Joseph Ataman, "Deadly Russian strikes obliterate Dnipro medical facility in central Ukraine," CNN, 26 May 2023
"Wagner: US sanctions boss of mercenary group in Mali," BBC News, 26 May 2023
Una Hajdari, "European parliaments are recognising Ukraine's Soviet-era Holodomor famine as genocide. Why now?," Euronews, 26 May 2023
Patrick Wintour, "UK to keep Kremlin assets frozen until Russia pays compensation to Ukraine," The Guardian, 25 May 2023
"EU condemns Russian deal to station nuclear warheads in Belarus," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"Japan slams Russia-Belarus nuclear deal, slaps on sanctions," Euronews, 26 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

BELARUS
Rumors of a coup 
On 24 May, Russian State media RIA Novosti reported that "Information about the preparation of a coup in Belarus by the West has been confirmed in Poland." Various Russian and Belarusian newspapers reported on the same issue. The media said that Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak was behind the coup. Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko called the General, "sick." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov designated Poland, "an enemy state." In reality, the retired General Skrzypczak referred to the Belarusians fighting along with the Ukrainian troops in an interview with Polsat News. He said that if Kyiv's counteroffensive in Belgorod achieves its objectives, the Belarusian soldiers who fled after a crackdown on protests against Lukashenko will drag the war into Belarus. He added that Poland has to be prepared for the uprising in Belarus which will result in the immigration of Belarusians. (Tetyana Klug, "Fact check: False claims about plans for coup in Belarus," Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2023)
 
FINLAND
Parties arrive at a consensus as coalition talks progress
On 26 May, the National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo affirmed that all four parties are mutually supporting immigration and climate policies. Orpo won most seats in the elections in April 2023 and desired to establish a four-party coalition government. The Finns Party leader Riika Purra's initiative to conclude the talks on immigration and climate policies this week has resulted in the new development. (Essi Lehto, "Finnish coalition talks edge forward with progress on migration, climate," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
FRANCE
Trade unions on upbeat despite the controversial pension reforms
On 25 May, Economist observed that France's trade unions are upbeat despite the passing of the controversial pension reforms that became law in early 2023. It cites several reasons for this phenomenon which involves a change in leadership. In March, CGT, with close links to the communist party, elected Sophie Binet as its first woman leader in its 128 years. A green, feminist and from a white-collar union branch, she believes she can get the government to annul the new pension rules. Unions have called for the fourteenth one-day strike on 6 June. Feminization of leadership is underway in CFDT, France's biggest union also, as the leader Laurent Berger is going to be replaced by his deputy Marylise Leon. Rumours spread that Berger might enter politics. He, however, insists on not wanting to enter politics, but is keen on creating a political space between the radical left and Macron's "hyper-centre." If Berger enters politics, he could be a formidable challenger to any centrist successor of Immanuel Macron, says The Economist. ("Women take over France's powerful trade unions," The Economist, 25 May 2023)
 
GERMANY
Patriot system to Lithuania ahead of the NATO summit
On 26 May, the German Defence Ministry, in its statement, said that it would move its Slovakia-based Patriot system to Lithuania to safeguard a NATO summit scheduled in July in Vilnius ending its deployment. The Ministry also mentioned that it would remove supporting elements from Poland. Germany has been stationing two Patriot units in Slovakia and three in Poland. (Sabine Siebold and Cristoph Steitz, "Germany to move Slovakia-based Patriot system to Lithuania to protect NATO summit," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
SERBIA
Thousands gather at the "Serbia of Hope" in support of President Aleksandar Vucic
On 26 May, Reuters reported that thousands hailing from Serbia, neighbouring Bosnia and North Macedonia gathered in Belgrade for the "Serbia of Hope" rally in support of President Aleksandar Vucic. The rally comes after anti-government protests fueled against the President over two mass shootings that killed 18 people in early May 2023. The protestors, supported by the opposition parties, blamed the government led by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party's failure to handle media that promote violence and eliminate criminal elements in the society. This instigated Vucic and his supporters to rally to showcase their power. He called his supporters to observe silence for a minute for the victims of the mass shooting and told them that he would resign as the party head on 27 May. (Ivana Sekularac and Marguerita Choy, "Tens of thousands gather in Serbia in Vucic's show of power," Reuters, 26 May 2023) 
 
TURKEY
Second round of elections on 28 May
On 27 May, the opposition Republican People's Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has so far been anti-migrant and has pledged to send back millions of refugees. The ruling Justice and Development Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Kilicdaroglu of colliding with the terrorist, Kurdish Workers' Party. He has affirmed Kilicdaroglu's rule will be equivalent to terrorist rule. As a last measure, Kilicadroglu took part in a YouTube live session for four hours. Kilicdaroglu is targeting youth who didn't vote in the first round of the election. With the third-place contender Sinan Ogan of ATA Alliance endorsing Erdogan and Victory Party's leader Umit Ozdag endorsing Kilicdaroglu, elections on 28 May will decide the fate of Turkey for the next five years. (Paul Kirby, "Turkish election: Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu clash in desperate race for votes," BBC News, 27 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE
Insight on pro-Ukrainian Russian militants
On 25 May, The Economist reported on the pro-Ukrainian militias who were a part of the cross-border raid into Belgorod on 22 May. The militias are the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion, based in Ukraine. According to the Russian Government, the militias are a part of the Ukrainian army but for the Ukrainian government, they are Russian dissidents. The Free Russia Legion works close with Ukraine's intelligence and the Russian Volunteer Corps is a far-right group that also works with Ukraine's Intelligence. Both the militias comprise anti-Russians. The spokesman of Ukraine's intelligence Andrei Chernak said that Ukraine will collaborate with everyone for its survival. On 23 May, the Russian Defence Ministry asserted that the militants were killed. ("Who are the militias raiding Russia's Belgorod region?The Economist, 25 May 2023) 
 
REGIONAL
Western powers condemn Kosovo violence
On 26 May, Reuters reported that Britain, France, Italy, Germany and the US condemned Kosovo's decision to crack down upon the municipal buildings in the town of Zvecan in northern Kosovo. Protests were going on to prevent the newly elected ethnic Albanian mayor from entering his office following an election Kosovo Serbs boycotted. In a joint statement, they called upon the authorities to step back and de-escalate and coordinate with the EU mission EULEX and NATO mission KFOR. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic placed Serbia's army on full combat alert and ordered army units to move closer to the Kosovo border as tension rose in Zvecan, Serb majority town in Kosovo. (Elizabeth Piper and Frank Jack Daniel, "UK, France, Italy, Germany and US condemn Kosovo violence," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
EU and Pfizer to renegotiate COVID-19 vaccine contract
On 26 May, the European Commission and Pfizer renegotiated the contract for COVID-19 vaccines that the EU signed at the peak of the pandemic. The Commission announced that Pfizer would deliver the vaccines up to 2027 with a reduction of doses from 450 million due for delivery this year. The contract was first signed in May 2021, initially for 900 million doses with an option of renewal for another 900 million doses. Eventually, the bloc contracted about 1.1 billion doses worth EUR 21.5 billion, says Politico.eu, quoting Financial Times. The talks have been going on for over a year following stiff opposition from several Central and Eastern European countries. Poland even went to the extent of sending a letter to Pfizer's shareholders to pressurize the company to renegotiate the deal. According to Politico.eu, the extended negotiations raise the question of why such a long contract was signed without a clause to negotiate down the doses when the pandemic conditions changed. (Carlo Martuscelli, "EU and Pfizer renegotiate controversial vaccine contract," Politico.eu, 26 May 2023)
 
EU condemns Russian decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus
On 26 May, EU Foreign Policy chief Joseph Borrell, in a statement, condemned an agreement between Russia and Belarus that would allow the deployment of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus. He said: "This is a step which will lead to further extremely dangerous escalation." The statement comes after Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's announcement that he is signing the documents in Minsk. Putin first announced this plan in March 2023. Borrell further called upon Belarusian authorities to put an immediate end to their support of Russia's war aggression and threatened them with a "coordinated reaction." (Andrew Gray and Kristen Donovan, "EU condemns Russian deal to station nuclear warheads in Belarus," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Prisoner swap between Iran and Germany
On 26 May, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian thanked Oman for mediating a prisoner swap between Iran and Germany. The Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi and German aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele arrived in Muscat and were returned to their respective countries. In January 2023, Vandecasteele was arrested under espionage charges and was sentenced to 40 years in prison and 74 lashes. According to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Vandecasteele spent 455 days in prison. The Belgian government arrested Assadi and sentenced 20 years in prison for planning a bomb attack on a France-based Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran. 
Belgian intelligence found that Assadi was working with Iran's intelligence. The National Council of Resistance accused Belgium of paying a "shameful ransom." ("Iran, Belgium conduct prisoner swap freeing aid worker, diplomat," Al Jazeera, 26 May 2023)


26 May 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #526

Belgorod Drone Attacks: Who, What and Why? | War in Ukraine: Day 456

Photo : Lynsey Addario/The New York Times


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
On 24 May, RT reported on Belgorod Governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov report on drone attacks in Belgorod. Although no injuries were reported, a gas pipeline was observed to be damaged. On 23 May, RT reported on a similar attack in Belgorod, which was reported to be staged by Ukraine’s reconnaissance and sabotage group. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, those involved in the attack are identified as “Ukrainian nationalists” and were blocked through a “counterterrorist operation” by Russian forces. On 23 May, the New York Times reported on the claims of a spokesperson from Freedom of Russia Legion on the additional capturing of Gorkovsky and Shchetinovka villages (7.7 kilometres from Ukraine border).

Who are the perpetrators?
According to reports from Associated Press and the New York Times, two groups have claimed for the attacks, RDK and LSR.

According to the Russian Volunteer Corps, Commander, Denis Nikitin. The group is known as a “right-wing conservation, military, and semi-political organization.” Its military equipment is self-sourced, but claimed to be operating in cooperation with Ukraine’s Armed Forces. In a statement released by the RDK group in August 2022: “The Russian Volunteer Corps, in order to together with our Ukrainian comrades defend their homeland which gave us shelter, and then continue the fight against the criminal Putin regime and his henchmen.” This indicates the members of the group to be Russians with an anti-Russian sentiment.

The next group is the Freedom of Russia Legion. A spokesperson from the Freedom of Russia Legion stated that the group was formed in August 2022, functioning under Ukraine’s international Legion.  According to the spokesperson, members of LSR were identified as Russian volunteers who aimed to free the people in the border settlements in Russia. Such volunteers are seen as those who crossed into Ukraine, with no work experience and later changed their mind to fight.

Russia, Ukraine and the US: What do they claim?
Russia
According to Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, the attack was seen as a diversion or a response to Ukraine’s failure in Bakhmut. Russia also calls the intruders to be “saboteurs” operating under Ukraine and termed them “terrorists.” In response to the attacks, Russia claimed “mop-up operations” to remove the terrorist and evacuation of people from the Belgorod area. On the concerns raised against Russia regarding the security of the border control, the construction minister stated that Russia had spent USD 125 million to defence the Belgorod area through “mines, trenches, and barriers.”

Ukraine
Ukraine has not agreed to the accusations and denied involvement with either of the groups. On 23 May, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, Hanna Maliar said: “People who actually rebelled against Putin’s regime” were behind the attack. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak blamed “underground guerrilla groups” that are “composed of Russian citizens.”

The US
On 22 May, Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank reported on Russia’s claims on the raids by the “Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR)” in Belgorod and capturing of Kozinka (Grayvoron region), Glotovo and Gora Podol (three to five kilometres from Ukraine border), later reclaimed by Russia.

On 23 May, the New York Times reported on the US State Department spokesperson’s comments on Russia’s accusation of the involvement of the US weapon systems. According to Matthew Miller: “We’re skeptical at this time of the veracity of these reports…the US does not encourage or enable strikes inside of Russia.”

Why did they launch attack?
The aim has been differentiating between both groups. Few members claim the incursion was aimed at creating a “demilitarized zone” between Ukraine and Russia and to free the people from the border regions. While others claim on creating a dent in Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s popularity, proving the existence of a gap in Russia’s security, and its vulnerability to such attacks. According to a report in the New York Times, the motive of the members of these groups has been to defend their new homeland (Ukraine) since the war began.

References
The Belgorod region spent almost 10 billion rubles on the construction of protective structures,” realty.interfax.ru26 May 2023
Andrew E. Kramer, Valerie Hopkins and Michael Schwirtz, “
Anti-Kremlin Fighters Take War to Russian Territory for a Second Day,” The New York Times, 23 May 2023
Michael Schwirtz, “
Who Are the Soldiers Behind the Free Russia Legion?,” The New York Times, 23 May 2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan, “
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023,” Institute for the Study of War, 22 May 2023
Ukrainian forces targeted Belgorod Region over 40 times on May 23 — governor,” TASS, 24 May 2023, Padmsahree: Check the hyphens for this and the next one.
At least 500 houses incurred damages from sabotage attack on Belgorod Region — authorities,” TASS, 24 May 2023
Kremlin comments on Kiev regime’s new attacks on Belgorod Region,” TASS, 24 May 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 456
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 24 May, Ukraine’s Ministry of Community Development announced the signing of a memorandum with South Korea’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The MOU is aimed at strengthening cooperation in reconstruction efforts. The five year memorandum focuses on integrated territorial planning, urban planning, transportation and social infrastructure development, decentralized energy, enterprise collaboration, job creation, and more. Ukraine seeks to benefit from Korea's expertise and involvement in reconstruction projects starting in 2023, offering transparent procedures, global management standards, digital tools, and state support. Discussions also covered key recovery priorities for 2023, including the Chornomorsk port concession, Danube cluster development, and Grain Initiative support.

On 25 May, the Ukrainian head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, posted on Telegram that 106 groups of soldiers were brought back to the countryside, consisting of eight officers and 98 soldiers and sergeants who were deployed in the Bakhmut direction. The statement came as: “They displayed extraordinary bravery, preventing the enemy from advancing further into our Eastern territory. The coordination headquarters, following President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's directive, is dedicated to swiftly bringing everyone back home.”

On 26 May, Ukrinform reported that Lithuania hadannounced a fresh military aid package for Ukraine's Armed Forces, aiming to support their Euro-Atlantic perspective and contribute to peace and stability in the region. Lithuania’s Minister of National Defense, Arvydas Anušauskas, highlighted Lithuania's commitment as a steadfast friend to Ukraine during an online meeting. The aid package will consist of anti-drone equipment, ammunition, dry rations, and other assistance, with a total value of approximately EUR 465 million. Lithuania has also increased training and the number of instructors for the Ukrainian military. Finland has similarly pledged a military aid package exceeding EUR 100 million to Ukraine.

On 26 May, The Washington Post reported as the arrival of spring southern Ukraine, raising hopes of a long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces. Recent dry weather conditions have improved the prospects for the much-anticipated operation, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others consider crucial to demonstrate Ukraine's ability to reclaim its land. Although no dramatic troop movements have been observed yet, the counteroffensive may already be quietly underway. The Zaporizhzhia region, with its agricultural landscape and the key city of Melitopol, is a significant focus for Ukrainian forces seeking to sever supply lines to Crimea and regain territory.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 25 May, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarus’s Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin signed agreements on the procedure for storing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus, causing concerns about de-escalation, according to European Commission Spokesperson Peter Stano. Stano emphasized that this step increases tensions, escalates the situation, and provokes further aggression by Russia and Belarus. Shoigu clarified that while the weapons are stored in Belarus, Russia retains control and authority over their use.

On 25 May, Sergey Shoigu claimed at the CSTO meeting that Western countries  are trying to prolong the conflict by supplying weapons and fighters regardless of the human casualties. The Kyiv tactics have evolved into terrorist activities, including sabotage and high profile-killings.  Moscow and Minsk signed a deal allowing the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarus territory with the control over the weapons remaining with Russia.

On 25 May, Russia’s spokesperson Razvozhaev said that Black Sea Fleet forces shot down two Ukrainian drones and “several more” were neutralized that tried attacking Sevastopol in Crimea. No damages were reported.

On 25 May, Peskov said Russian forces knew how to protect the head of the state as a response to Skibitsky's threat to assassinate Putin. He called Ukraine: “A terrorist regime talks about its terrorist aspirations.”

On 25 May, the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting was held in the Great Kremlin Palace. Putin talked about Industrial cooperation through the ‘Made in Eurazes’ initiative, and branding with ‘Eurasian Quality Mark’ to meet the high standards. Strengthening technological, digital, financial sovereignty of the five member nations were given emphasis. Freedom of movement of goods, services, finance, human capital and newly added knowledge for raising the standards of education, health and public administration.

The West View         
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 24 May, Norwegian Defence Minister Bjoern Arild Gram announced that Norway would provide support for training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets. This follows US President Joe Biden's endorsement of such training programs and assurances from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the aircraft will not be used to enter Russian territory. Gram stated that the Norwegian government is considering how Norway, in collaboration with allies and partners, can contribute to this initiative. However, no decision has been made regarding whether Norway will transfer any of its F-16 jets to Ukraine. Russia has expressed opposition to such transfers, questioning NATO's role in the conflict.

On 24 May, Bloomberg News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had taken significant measures to mobilize Russia's economy for war since the invasion of Ukraine. The central bank has been enlisted in the effort, with decorated military officer Sergey Belov appointed as a deputy governor to oversee "field institutions" that allocate funds from the state budget to combat troops. This role, responsible for banking transactions that bypass commercial lenders and safeguard state secrets, is unprecedented for a central bank official with military functions. The Bank of Russia operates nearly 90 field offices, which cater to the banking needs of frontline units, including cash handling, money transfers, and issuing payment cards. While the Bank of Russia aims to project itself as a technocratic institution focused on monetary policy, it has become an integral part of the war economy, offering financial incentives and benefits to encourage Russian volunteers to join the fight. The central bank's increasing involvement in military affairs signifies the current career opportunities for individuals from military and security backgrounds in various civilian sectors in Russia.

On 24 May, the US State Department approved a potential Foreign Military Sale of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) and related equipment to Ukraine for an estimated USD 285 million. The sale aims to enhance Ukraine's defence capabilities against Russian missile strikes and aircraft, without disrupting the regional military balance. Raytheon Missiles and Defence will be the primary contractor. The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency reported: “No additional US personnel will be required for implementation, and it will not impact US defense readiness.”

On 25 May, the Council of EU approved the extension of trade concessions for Ukrainian exports to the EU for another year until June 2024, including the suspension of customs duties, quotas, and trade defense measures. The measures aim to maintain stable trade relations and support Ukraine's economy during challenging circumstances. The extension aligns with the Association Agreement's commitment to promoting sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. The regulation covers outstanding customs duties, anti-dumping duties, and safeguards for imports from Ukraine. The European Parliament's approval and subsequent signing will precede the regulation's entry into force on 06 June.

On 24 May, The Wall Street Journal reported that South Korea, initially hesitated to provide lethal assistance due to concerns about violating its policy of offering only nonlethal support to Ukraine, has reversed its decision and is now proceeding with the transfer of hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, a move that US officials believe will enhance Kyiv's planned offensive against Russian forces. This decision allows the White House to postpone a difficult choice regarding the supply of cluster munitions, which are banned by many countries. The shells will be transferred from South Korea to the US, which will then arrange for their delivery to Ukraine. South Korea's contribution of ammunition has relieved some pressure on the U.S., as its own artillery supplies have been dwindling. The breakthrough in South Korea's ammunition supply follows a joint security declaration between Washington and Seoul, strengthening their ties and granting Seoul greater influence in consultations regarding a potential nuclear response to a North Korean attack.

On 25 May, Sweden Post English reported that according to TV4 Nyheterna, Ukrainian pilots will have the opportunity to practice flying the Swedish fighter aircraft Jas 39 Gripen, along with simulator training. Sweden’s Defence Minister Pål Jonsson stated: “This will provide Ukraine with a basis for future decisions regarding its defense capabilities.” The training involves a select group of experienced individuals who have already undergone Ukrainian pilot training. However, specific details regarding the orientation training, such as the location and timing, remain undisclosed. Minister of Defence and Minister for Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin are currently in Ukraine, visiting military units that utilize Swedish defence equipment. It is emphasized that, at present, it is not relevant to lend any planes to Ukraine due to Sweden's own national defence requirements. Ukraine is exploring other options for the long term, including American F16 and European Tornado planes, although the Jas Gripen is considered more affordable and easier to learn to fly than the F16.

On 25 May, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, speaking at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, expressed the belief that the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) should emerge as a significant decision-making hub in the world. Lukashenko highlighted the need to replace the current unipolar world order with new centers that consider the interests of all international participants. He emphasized that the attention given to events in Moscow signifies the EAEU's potential as one of these centers. Lukashenko also mentioned progress made in securing financial support for joint manufacturing projects within the EAEU, describing it as a pivotal document with anticipated practical outcomes.


References
Oleksandr Azarkhina, “Ministry of Reconstruction strengthens cooperation with public and private partners of the Republic of Korea in reconstruction issues,” Facebook, 24 May 2023
We are bringing home 106 of our people,” Telegram, 25 May 2023
Lithuania announces new military aid package to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 26 May 2023
Adam Taylor and Anastacia Galouchka, “
Sunny weather in southern Ukraine suggests new fighting season has begun,” The Washington Post, 26 May 2023
Russia-Belarus nuclear agreement 'does not contribute to de-escalation' — EU,” TASS, 25 May 2023
More than 2,500 foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine – Shoigu,” RT, 25 May 2023
Russian military repels another drone attack on Crimea – authorities,” RT, 25 May 2023
Kremlin responds to Ukrainian threat to kill Putin,”RT, 25 May 2023
Заседание Высшего Евразийского экономического совета,” Kremlin, 25 May 2023
Norway says it will help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets,” Reuters, 24 May 2023
Putin’s Central Bank Is Also on the Battlefield in Ukraine,” Bloomberg News, 24 May 2023
Ukraine – National Advanced Surface-To-Air Missile System (NASAMS),” dsca.mil, 24 May 2023
Ukraine: Council adopts renewal of temporary trade liberalisation and other trade concessions,” europa.eu, 25 May 2023
Gordon Lubold and Michael R. Gordon, “
South Korean Artillery Supply Allows U.S. to Delay Decision on Cluster Munitions for Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal, 24 May 2023
Ukrainian pilots will be allowed to test fly the Gripen – Sydsvenskan,” Sweden Post English, 25 May 2023
Lukashenka: the movement of nuclear weapons has begun,” Telegram, 25 May 2023
China calls on EU to address ‘root cause’ of Ukraine conflict,” RT, 25 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

FINLAND
Increase in immigrant numbers in 2022
On 25 May, Statistics Finland reported that a record-breaking 49,998 people immigrated to Finland in 2022. According to the Director of Development at the Finnish Immigration Service Johannes Hirvela, the removal of the entry restriction due to COVID-19 has contributed to the stark rise in the number of immigrants numbers. He added that more work permits have been acquired and students have also arrived in great numbers because of Finland’s low tuition fee. The number of asylum seekers has been the same. A large number of immigrants hail from Russia followed by Sweden, India, Estonia, and the Philippines. Ukrainians are given temporary protection only. According to Statistics Finland, the population of six regions have increased because of the immigrant inflow. (Aleksi Teivainen, “Record-breaking 50,000 people immigrated to Finland in 2022,” Helsinki Times, 25 May 2023)
 

Debates on immigration in the coalition formation talks
On 25 May, one of the parties involved in the coalition talks, the Finns Party, demanded agreements on Climate and Immigration must be concluded by the end of this week. Else, the party will walk away from the coalition. Chairperson of the Finns Party, Riika Purra said that work-based immigration is to be provided to immigrants outside of the EU who can earn over EUR 2500 per month. She quoted the Ministry of Finance’s calculation and said that it will contribute to the public economy. In response, a financial advisor in the Ministry of Finance Jukka Mattila said even if an immigrant earns over EUR 2000 they can contribute to the public economy. Mattila added that setting a limit of EUR 2500 for both work-based immigrants and other immigrants fails to consider other factors such as their age. Reaching agreements on climate and immigration has been the priority for the four parties. Diverging interests exist such as the Swedish People’s Party's call for a restriction on humanitarian and work-based immigration and the National Coalition Party wants to speed up climate action. (Aleksi Teivainen, “Orpo believes in breakthrough but admits talks on immigrant are difficult,” Helsinki Times, 26 May 2023; Aleksi Teivainen, “Finns Party’s demand for €2,500 income limit for immigrants based on misunderstanding, says official", Helsinki Times, 25 May 2023)
 
GERMANY

Inflation pushes Germany into recession
On 25 May, Politico.eu reported that the economic output of Germany for the first quarter of the year 2023 has fallen 0.3 per cent due to the inflation rate of 7.2 per cent. According to BBC News, Germany is being pushed into recession due to inflation between January and March 2023. The coalition government have diverging interest to deal with inflation. The Greens want to tax the rich and invest in climate protection plans, and the Free Democrats demand deregulation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats Party want to bring in skilled foreign labour and invest in green industries. According to Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Robert Habeck, Germany might have to cut its budget up to EUR 22 billion next year. The Bundesbank, the German central bank however expects the economy to grow modestly in the April to June quarter with a rebound in industry to revive consumer spending.  According to Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, the government can expect a shortfall of EUR 30 billion in tax incomes. (Hans Von Der Burchard and Peter Wilke, “Germany in recession: Berlin braces for budget cut battle,” Politico.eu, 25 May 2023; Lucy Hooker, “Germany falls into recession as inflation hits economy,” BBC News, 25 May 2023)
 
POLAND

Government to launch submarine purchase programme soon
On 24 May, Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced the government’s plan to launch a submarine purchase programme in 2023 at the Defence24Day conference. According to the minister, the ‘Orka’ program will outline the procedure to purchase submarines and the transfer of necessary technologies. (Karol Badohal and Pawel Florkkiewicz, “Poland to launch submarine purchase programme soon - minister,” Reuters, 24 May 2023)
 
THE UK

First AUKUS artificial intelligence and autonomy trial held
On 26 May, UK’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory hosted the first-ever AUKUS artificial intelligence and autonomy trial. The initial joint deployment had a collaboration of Australian, UK and US AI-enabled assets detecting and tracking military targets in a representative environment in real time. It also included live training of models in flight and the interchange of AI models between AUKUS nations. The collaboration is aimed at rapidly transforming these technologies into military capabilities. The trial was organized under AUKUS Advanced Capabilities Pillar, known as Pillar 2, a trilateral initiative to pursue cutting-edge technologies and capabilities to promote security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. (Ministry of Defence and Defence Science and Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, “World first as UK hosts inaugural AUKUS AI and autonomy trial”, GOV.UK, 26 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL

A blooming Germany-Romania partnership
On 24 May, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier reached Romania. He is on a three-day visit in which he will meet the Romanian President Klaus Iohannis in Bucharest. Steinmeier’s focus will be establishing strategic cooperation with Romania to support Ukraine and Moldova. The trade between Germany and Romania values up to EUR 33 billion. According to Deutsche Welle, 23,000 German companies are in Romania and have created 300,000 jobs. According to Romanian Ambassador to Berlin Adriana Stanescu: “Romania is developing into a secure strategic investment and business location for Germany.” The Ukrainian War and Germany’s changing foreign and defence policy offer Romania to forge a partnership with Germany which can enhance Romania’s presence in the EU and NATO. (Sabina Fati and Keno Verseck, “President Steinmeier’s Romania visit signals closening ties,” Deutsche Welle, 25 May 2023)
 

EC adopts WTO's agreement on fisheries subsidies agreement
On 25 May, European Council approved, on behalf of the EU, the World Trade Organization protocol establishing a fisheries subsidies agreement that focuses on environmental sustainability in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14.6. The agreement includes a prohibition on subsidies contributing to illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing along with fishing in the unregulated high seas. It also consists of a prohibition on subsidies for fishing overfished stocks to rebuild such stocks to healthy levels. This agreement will come into full force once two-thirds of WTO members complete their domestic ratification process. (“WTO: Council approves an agreement on fisheries subsidies to boost environmental sustainability,” consilium.europa.eu, 25 May 2023)
 

OpenAI CEO faces backlash for threatening to leave if the bloc “overregulated”
On 25 May, Reuters reported that OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman is being severely criticized for threatening to leave the EU if the bloc “overregulated” through the new AI Act. He has been meeting top politicians in France, Spain, Poland, Germany and the UK to discuss the matter. Dutch MEP Kim van Sparrentak criticized the threat by saying that she and her colleagues will not let American companies blackmail them and called them unfit for Europe if they cannot comply with the basic data governance rules. OpenAI first clashed with the Italian regulator Garante, for shutting down ChatGPT for violating European privacy rules. ChatGPT was restored later when the company renewed its privacy policy. Meanwhile, EU lawmakers added new proposals to the Act such as disclosing copyrighted materials used to train generative tools like ChatGPT. EU parliamentarians have agreed on the draft of the act in early May 2023 and the law is likely to be passed later this year. (Matin Coutler and Supantha Mukherjee, “OpenAI CEO's threat to quit EU draws lawmaker backlash,” Reuters, 25 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL

France expresses concerns over Iran’s ballistic missile test 
On 25 May, the French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anne-CLaire Legendre said that Iran's test-fire of ballistic missiles is concerning amid its nuclear programme escalation. The comment comes as a response to Iran’s test firing of a 2000 kilometres range ballistic missile on 25 May. She accused Iran of violating the UN Security Council’s 2231 resolution which limits Iran from pursuing “any activity” relating to ballistic missiles with nuclear capability. Legendre said: “Iran's activities pose serious and increased non-proliferation risks without any credible civilian justification.” (John Irish, “France says Iran ballistic test worrying in light of nuclear escalation,” Reuters, 25 May 2023)


25 May 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #525

Ukraine: Council of Europe and the 'Register of Damage' | War in Ukraine: Day 455

Photo : EPA-EFE/ANTON BRINK HANSEN


IN FOCUS
By Rishika Yadav 

Ukraine: Council of Europe and the 'Register of Damage'
On 17 May, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Marija Pejčinović Burić, announced the establishment of a "Register of Damage," under Resolution 2482 (2023), following a Council of Europe (CoE) summit held in Reykjavik, Iceland. The register aims to document the destruction caused by Russian forces in Ukraine,. 40 countries, the EU and G7 countries have signed onto the initiative, with more expected to finalize their internal procedures to join. The EU provided substantial funding for the Register, headquartered in the Hague, with a satellite office in Ukraine. The Register will operate for an initial period of three years, serving as a record of evidence and claims related to damage caused by Russian aggression.

The formation of the Register highlight the following two issues.
1. Efforts to make Russia accountable
The Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers decided to exclude the Russian Federation from the organization. This marked the first and only instance of Russia being expelled from an international organization. Prior to the exclusion, Russia's voting rights had already been suspended on 25 February, 2022, following the outbreak of the war. Since 16 September 2022, Russia is no longer a party to the European Convention on Human Rights, thereby depriving individuals under its jurisdiction of the Convention's protection. However, the European Court of Human Rights retains jurisdiction over violations that occurred before that date. The Court currently has four inter-state applications and around 8,500 individual applications related to Russia's military operations in Ukraine. The CoE is utilizing all available means to ensure Russia's accountability for human rights violations and serious breaches of international law, as well as to provide compensation to the victims of Russian aggression. The organization has been actively assisting Ukraine through legal and policy advice, training experts, and supporting the country's recovery and reconstruction.

2. Positive responses
The register is seen as a first step towards an international mechanism of compensation for victims of Russian aggression. Burić described the creation of the Register as a historic decision and emphasized its significance in supporting victims and laying the groundwork for compensation mechanisms. Iceland’s Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir highlighted the importance of the Council of Europe's role in ensuring accountability and expressed solidarity with Ukraine. German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, highlighted the importance of the registry in holding Russian occupiers accountable for war crimes and seeking reparations for the extensive harm. The register received support from other leaders within the CoE, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: "The register is just one of a number of international initiatives set up to ensure accountability for the crimes inflicted in Ukraine,". Also, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized: "When we think in terms of reconstruction, it's an enormously important judicial element to have this register of damages to give justice to the victims." The United States, Canada, and Japan also expressed their endorsement. On the same lines, German spokesperson for the Federal Government, Christine Hoffmann said: “We welcome the creation of such a Registry. The damage inflicted on Ukraine by Russian aggression needs to be documented. This will be an important basis for the further reconstruction of Ukraine or for discussions on compensation.” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal welcomed the establishment of the Register and invited other countries to join. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal regarded the register as a significant milestone towards justice and reparations for Ukraine, urging the prompt operationalization of the register for victims to submit their claims.
 

References
Resolution CM/Res(2023)establishing the Enlarged Partial Agreement on the Register of Damage Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation Against Ukraine,” coe.int, 16 May 2023
Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia,” BBC News, 09 March 2023
‘Historic’: European leaders say as they sign war register of damage for Ukraine,” Hindustan Times, 17 May 2023
War in Ukraine: Follow up,” coe.int, 16 May 2023
Europe, G7 sign war register for Ukraine,” The Economic Times, 17 May 2023
Council of Europe approves Register of Damage against Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023
Council of Europe Summit creates register of damage for Ukraine as first step towards an international compensation mechanism for victims of Russian aggression,” coe.int, 17 May 2023
“​​
In Germany, the creation of the Registry of Damages described as an important foundation for reconstruction of Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 24 May 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 455
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 24 May, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, during his visit to Ethiopia, called Africa to end its “neutrality” in the Ukraine war. He said: “By being neutral towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine, you project your neutrality to the violation of borders and mass crimes that may occur very close to you, if not happen to you.” Highlighting the Ukraine-Africa ties,  he referred to how Kyiv has prioritised grain export.

On 24 May, following the announcement of forming of marine corps, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that adding “new marine brigades, modern weapons and equipment,” to the marine corps would be the prime task. This is aimed at boosting the defence capabilities.


The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 24 May, Belgorod Governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov reported on a drone attack in Grayvoron city and Borisovka districts. He said: “Air defenses have shot down a drone above the Belgorod Region. According to preliminary information, there were no deaths or injuries.” Although no injuries were reported, a gas pipeline was damaged. On 23 May, a similar attack was reported in Belgorod, staged by Ukraine’s reconnaissance and sabotage group. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, those involved in the attack are identified as “Ukrainian nationalists” and were blocked through a “counterrorist operation” by Russian forces.

On 24 May, the Wagner group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin disclosed the number of causalties to be 20,000 in the Bakhmut battle. In an interview by Wagner’s press service, Progozhin said that close to 50,000 prisoners had been recruited, of which 20 per cent had died and 50,000 to 70,000 to have injured.

On 24 May, Russia’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on the deployment of Russia’s military units and border forces to counter Ukraine’s attacks in Belgorod. The attacks inside Russia have raised concerns on the continuity of the attacks. Peskov said: “Our military units, our border guards and corresponding agencies are doing their job.”

On 24 May, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on 120,000 “military specialists” to have been trained since the beginning of the war. Of which close to 5000 were trained to handle hi-tech weapons such as “T-90M Proryv tanks, BMP-2M infantry fighting vehicles with the Berezhok combat module, BMP-3 IFVs,” and 21,000 were trained for battlegroups.


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 24 May, Deutsche Welle reported on Russia’s warning over future attacks inside. The move follows the attack after shelling in Belgrod area. According to Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: “We will continue to respond promptly and extremely harshly to such actions by Ukrainian militants.” So far, Ukraine has denied the claims of attacks.

On 24 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on Russia’s difficulty in implementing discipline. According to the report, the number of “Russian deserters” had increased. This was confirmed as close to 1,053 cases had been trialed since 2023 in Russia’s military court. In a statement: “Russia's efforts to improve discipline have focused on making examples of defaulters, and promoting patriotic zeal, rather than addressing the root causes of soldiers' disillusionment.”


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war

On 24 May, Deutsche Welle reported on WHO’s resolution to condemn Russia for targeting healthcare facilities in Ukraine. The resolution was favoured by 80, while 52 countries abstained from voting.

References
Wagner chief reveals losses in fight for key Donbass city,” RT, 24 May 2023
Drone drops explosive device on car road in Belgorod — governor,” TASS, 24 May 2023
Over 120,000 Russian personnel trained since start of special military op — defense chief,” TASS, 24 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Wagner Group reports 10,000 prisoner deaths,” Deutsche Welle, 24 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

GREECE
President appoints a caretaker prime minister as talks for a coalition government fails
On 24 May, President Katerina Sakellaropoulou appointed Ioannis Sarmas, president of the Hellenic Court of Audit, as the caretaker Prime Minister ahead of election on 25 June. The incumbent Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsokais won the elections securing 40.1 per cent of the votes but fell short of an outright majority. The two parties that followed the New Democracy party also refused to form the coalition. According to the Greek constitution, the president appoints a caretaker Prime Ministers if coalition talks fail. The newly elected Parliament will convene and will be dissolved a day later before the caretaker government takes over. (Lefteris Papadimas, “Greece appoints caretaker PM ahead of June repeat election,” Reuters, 24 May 2023)

THE UK

Leaving the EU cost GBP 6.95 billion in food cost
On 24 May, The Guardian reported that according to the London School of Economics (LSE), the trade barriers due to Brexit has cost GBP 6.95 billion to the households. The trade barriers have increased the food bills by GBP 210. Since 2019, the cost of food has increased 25 per cent, in the absence of Brexit it must have been only 17 per cent, says The Guardian. According to the Office for National Statistics, food inflation is 19 per cent since 2022. The WHO urged the UK government to reduce the trade barriers to deal with inflation. (Phillip Inman, “Brexit food trade barriers have cost UK households £7bn, report finds,” The Guardian, 24 May 2023)

TURKEY

Victory Party endorses the opposition party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu
On 24 May, Victory Party leader Umit Ozdag endorsed the opposition, Republican People’s Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Ozdag said that he would send back 13 million asylum seekers and migrants and hence he supports Kilicdaroglu who is anti-migrant. Kilicdaroglu's election campaigning was focused on the expulsion of refugees from Turkey. Ozdag’s endorsement of CHP comes as a response to Sinan Ogan, the third-place contender’s endorsement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). (“Turkey election: Anti-migration leader backs Erdogan rival,” Deutsche Welle, 24 May 2023)

REGIONAL

EU proposes plans for financial products
On 24 May, the EU set out plans to cut the amount the retail investors pay banks and insurers for financial products to accelerate investment and deepen its capital market. It will include a ban on banks and insurers paying commissions on sales of their products to brokers who give no advice to customers. Further, it proposes a limited ban on commission through tougher tests on the suitability of the product for the buyer and where the advice is being offered. The product will also have its value for money based on new cost and performance benchmarks from regulators. (Huw Jones, “EU sets out plans to cut the price of financial products,” Reuters, 25 May 2023)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Pause AI’s protest against artificial intelligence
On 23 May, five members of Pause AI started a protest against the proliferation of AI outside the Microsoft Office in Brussels. This protest comes as the leaders of the largest tech giants such as Google and Open AI are on a visit across Europe to meet legislators of various countries. Pause AI was founded by Joep Meindertsma who believes that there is a chance that AI could mean the end of humankind. The group is not supported by any interest groups or sponsors. They stand for their two demands of halting the further roll-outs of ever-more-powerful AI systems and a mutual AI treaty signed by all governments. Resonating with their demands lawmakers of the European Parliament are working on the bloc’s Artificial Intelligence Act and an international conference on AI. EU’s law yet to be finalized later this year could set up barriers to developing risky AI applications. (Gian Volpicelli, “The rag-tag group trying to pause AI in Brussels,” Politico.eu, 23 May 2023)


22 May 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #522

Elections in Greece: New Democracy party wins with a majority | War in Ukraine: Day 451 & 452

Photo : LOUIZA VRADI/REUTERS


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Elections in Greece: New Democracy party wins with a majority
On 21 May, Greece’s New Democracy (ND) party, led by the conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis won the elections with 146 seats out of 300. The centre-left party, Syriza, reduced by 11.5 per cent from the 2019 elections, winning only 71 seats. The socialist party, Pasok, which is the likely partner for a coalition for the ND, secured 41 seats with a two per cent increase from the previous elections. Under the upgraded electoral system, a party with the majority votes is not granted the bonus votes and requires 151 seats to form the government without a coalition. The ND is expected not to form a coalition, neither with the Centre-Left Syriza nor the Socialist party. It aims to form a single-party government through a second round of elections, which allows bonus votes.

Three issues
First, the elections under Greece’s new electoral law. In 2019 elections, where the voter turnout was 57 per cent, the ND party won the elections by a thin margin securing 158 seats, followed by Syriza and the Movement for Change coalition. ND was able to win due to the 2016 law, which allowed the party with majority votes to have 50 more bonus votes, under the new electoral system of proportional representation, the bonus votes were removed and to increase the turnout, the voting age was reduced to 17. The new law will also allow overseas voting. Due to the removal of the bonus votes from the first round, ND was not able to secure the majority to form the government. Therefore making the second round of elections likely as it allows the bonus votes to secure ND’s position to form the single-party government.

Second, major issues in the elections. In the elections campaign, the ND party’s key focus and strength was the increased investment and digitalized economy which has brought the GDP to close to six per cent. The party has supported the digitalisation of niche sectors such fishery industry to increase revenue, gathering the support of the traders. Increasing the defence capabilities of Greece against Turkey, and addressing the migration were also some of key concerns amongst the people which ND gained confidence to win the elctions. In the case of the opposition party, Syriza focused on the “wiretap scandal,” and rail tragedy, cost of living crisis to hinder the support of ND. This was superceeded as the investment driven economic recovery and privatisation effort of ND helped it to gain support.

Third, the ND party and Mitsotakis. ND party has positioned well by attracting investments to recover the economy from the crisis situation. Greece was close to getting removed from Eurozone in 2015; the party’s continuity for the last four years has helped it to double from the Eurozone average. The new rule of including those in the age of 17 to vote also added an advantage as those between 17 to 24 backed ND with 31.5 per cent of votes. Mitsotakis, who comes from a politically powered up family, has also stood up against migration which has reduced by 90 per cent since 2015. Such long-standing factors in past four years have proved the party’s image appealing to the people.
 
References
Nick Beake and Paul Kirby “Greek election: Centre-right Mitsotakis hails big win but wants majority,” BBC, 22 May 2023
Jack Parrock, “Greece elections: What are the big issues?,” Deutshe Welle, 20 May 2023
Latest exit poll Parliamentary election in Greece 2023,” politpro.eu, 22 May 2023
Niki Kitsantonis, “With His Party Ahead in Elections, Greek Leader Claims ‘Political Earthquake’,” The New York Times, 22 May 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 451 & 452
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 20 May, the Ukrainian General Staff of armed forces provided operational information regarding the Russian invasion, through a post on Facebook. Russian forces conducted an airstrike with "shaheds." The Ukraine forces also claimed on numerous missile and air strikes, targeting both military positions and civilian areas in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The frontlines experienced intense clashes, particularly in specific directions, while other areas remained relatively stable. 

On 21 May, Ukrinform reported on Ukrainian Armed Forces remarks on the situation in Bakhmut. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar, the Ukrainian Armed Forces held defence in the Litak district. On the same day, Defence Minister Oleksii reported on the upcoming Ramstein format meeting that will address Ukraine's air and missile defense. He emphasized that the decisions made regarding aircraft are significant.

On 21 May, Ukrinform reported on Zelenskyy’s meeting with the US President Joe Biden in Japan. They discussed on collaboration to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities and implement the Ukrainian Peace Formula. They also exchanged views on projects for Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 May, according to Kremlin President Putin congratulated the Wagner private military and the regular army servicemen on the battle for Artyomovsk. On 20 May, Wagner group head said: “We’ve taken the whole city – every building – so that nobody could say that we didn’t capture some small part of it,”. The operation called ‘the Bakhmut meat grinder’ went on for 224 days. The regular troops supported the Wagner fighters with their artillery and air support. However, Ukraine claims that the fighting for the city was not over yet. The city has been largely destroyed because of the battle in which the Ukrainian forces were pushed back to the western suburbs by the Russian forces. 

On 21 May, Russia’s spokesperson Alexander Gordeyev, said that the Russian troop thwarted the munition supply by Ukrainian army brigade in the Donetsk area. According to him Russian forces had stopped the rotation of Ukrainian troops near the village of Vodyanoye. He said: "The Lantset cruise missile hit an enemy howitzer near Stepnogorka. Air defense and electronic warfare systems downed two plane-type drones and one kamikaze drone." The forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar and an all-terrain car near Novodanilovka, a mortar near Dorozhnyanka, cars with militants near Malinovka and Shcherbaki, a munitions depot near Poltavka, and enemy manpower in the village of Kamenskoye. 

On 21 May, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said that Russian troops had destroyed an ammunition depot near the village of Stanislav in the Kherson Region. According to him, six vehicles and an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery destroyed along with 15 Ukrainian servicemen in the region over the day. 

The West View    
Responses from the US and Europe   
 
On 20 May, during the summit, the G7 leaders presented a Communique, where they condemned Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, which violates international law, including the UN Charter. They further called it an act of aggression that poses a global threat, violating fundamental norms and principles of the international community. They confirmed their commitment to support Ukraine until a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace is achieved. In a statement: “Through our G7 Leaders' Statement, we pledge to enhance diplomatic, financial, humanitarian, and military assistance to Ukraine, increase pressure on Russia and its supporters, and mitigate the negative impacts of the war on vulnerable populations worldwide.”

On 20 May, the White House released the conversation between US press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the US President’s trip to Japan, during a press briefing. Sullivan said: “The G7 summit showcased unity among democratic nations on critical issues such as supporting Ukraine, holding Russia accountable, addressing the PRC, ensuring economic security, and promoting clean energy transition.” He further emphasized that the US has imposed numerous (around 300) sanctions on Russia, and expanded sanctions to key sectors. Economic security tools will be developed to address concerns related to coercion and technology-national security intersection. In terms of military support, the US will provide training to Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter aircraft and has been delivering various capabilities to Ukraine based on military consultations. The focus is on equipping Ukraine for a future force to deter and defend against Russian aggression. 

On 21 May, following Biden's meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Japan, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance of up to USD 375 million to meet Ukraine's critical defense needs. This includes ammunition for HIMARS, artillery rounds, anti-armor systems, laser-guided rockets, armored vehicles, logistics equipment, and spare parts. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war

On 21 May, Bloomberg reported on recent ship-tracking data from Kpler revealing a surge in Asian imports of Russian energy used for electricity generation, driven by high demand amid unusually warm weather. Coal imports in April reached 7.46 million tons, a nearly 30 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2022. Both China and India were the largest buyers, accounting for over two-thirds of Russia's coal exports to Asia. Fuel oil deliveries in April and March hit record highs, with countries like South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE increasing their purchases. Analysts expect further increases in energy shipments to Asia due to the anticipated strong El Nino climate pattern, with countries prioritizing energy security over political interests, as noted by Singapore’s head of JTD Energy Services Pte, John Driscoll.

References
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Facebook, 20 May 2023
Volodymyr Zelenskyi held a meeting with the Prime Minister of Italy in Japan,” president.gov.ua, 20 May 2023
Maliar : Situation in Bakhmut critical, Ukrainian fighters holding defense in one district,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
Strengthening air defense: Reznikov announces Ramstein format meeting next week,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
Zelensky, Biden discuss cooperation on Ukraine defense capabilities,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023 “Russia must hand over ZNPP to full control of Ukraine, IAEA-Zelensky at G7 summit,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
Ukraine pushes Russia “another 700 meters” back from Bakhmut-Ground Forces,” Ukrinform, 22 May 2023
Russian forces thwart Ukraine’s attempt to supply munitions in southern Donetsk area,” TASS, 21 May 2023
Russia destroys ammo depot of Ukrainian territorial defense brigade in Kherson Region,” TASS, 21 May 2023
Russian forces thwart Ukraine’s attempt to supply munitions in southern Donetsk area,” TASS, 21 May 2023
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the President’s Trip to Japan,” whitehouse.gov, 20 May 2023
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine,” defense.gov, 21 May 2023
Cause of Russian export surge to Asia revealed,” RT News, 21 May 2023
G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué,” whitehouse.gov, 20 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

HUNGARY
Armed forces celebrate National Defence Day
On 21 May, the armed forces celebrated National Defence Day to commemorate its inception 175 years ago. Hungary has been celebrating National Defence Day on 21 May since 1993. A family day was also held for the five thousand soldiers and their families at the Capital Zoo and Botanical Garden. The Ministry of Defence also adopted two Persian leopards to support the cause of national defence at the initiative of social organizations. (“Today's Hungarian Armed Forces + gallery, in the modern sense, was founded 175 years ago,” Hungarian Nation, 21 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU needs to offer an alternative to the global south, says Ursula
On 21 May, Ursula von der Leyen said that the European bloc should offer an alternative to China’s ambitious economic projects for the Global South countries. She also spoke about the EU’s 90 flagship projects in different continents as part of its Global Gateway investment scheme. At the G7 summit in Hiroshima, she urged the EU and G7 countries to use this opportunity to provide alternative funding options to the Global South against the economic projects of China pushing those countries into debt and heavy loans. She further claimed that the Belt and Road initiative is losing appeal because many countries had “bad experiences” with China. China refuted these claims and accused G7 members of abusing trade regulations and hurling false allegations against the Belt and Road Initiative. ( “We must make ‘better offer’ to Global South than China’s project – EU Commission chief,” RT News, 21 May 2023)
 
Iran calls out Switzerland over anti-execution comments
On 21 May, the Iranian Foreign Ministry ordered Switzerland’s ambassador to Iran, Nadine Oliveri Lozano over an anti-execution tweet. On 19 May, the Swiss embassy called out the Iranian government to reduce the execution rate post the execution of three anti-government protesters. Majid Kazemi, Saleh Mirhashemi and Saeed Yaghoubi were part of protests which provoked the death of Jina Mahsa Amini. The three were accused of killing two members of the Basij paramilitary force. The tweet showcased a picture wherein a poster of Jina Mahsa Amini along with Iran’s pre-revolutionary flag was present which in turn made Tehran call out the interventionist nature of Switzerland. (“Iran summons Swiss ambassador over anti-executions tweet,” Deutsche Welle, 21 May 2023)
 
ITALY
SpaceX and Unipol Gruppo to help rescue efforts in flood-hit region
On 20 May, SpaceX and Italy’s Unipol Gruppo decided to rescue people affected by the floods. SpaceX will position its Starlink satellite to provide coverage of flood-hit Emilia-Romagna and Unipol Gruppo will make it accessible to rescuers, hospitals and the public. The floods caused due to a torrential downpour have killed 14 people and displaced 36,000 people. Rescue operations are being obstructed by the weather and phone lines are hindered. The new initiative will make rescuing easier. (Gianluca Semararo, “Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Italy’s Unipol join forces to help Italians hit by flooding,” Reuters, 21 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Defender Europe 2023 drills expand to the Western Balkans
On 21 May, Defender Europe 2023, NATO’s largest international military exercise reached Kosovo to expand further into the Western Balkans. Started in April, it will continue till June 2023 at several other places in Europe.  Kosovo’s Defence Minister Armend Mehaj expressed his intentions to join NATO following its arrival. The United States European Command (EUROCOM) will lead the exercise, and high-ranking officials, including President Albin Kurti, will attend the opening ceremony. More than 7,000 troops from the US and 17,000 from 20 allied and partner states are expected to participate in the drills, with Kosovo’s 1300- contingent the largest one. (“Western Balkans Phase of NATO Defender Europe 2023 Drills Starts in Kosovo,” Sputnik, 21 May 2023)

Estonia and Latvia to acquire air defence system from Germany
On 21 May, according to the Estonian Defence Ministry, Estonia and Latvia are to commence negotiations with Germany’s Diehl Defence to purchase air defence systems. According to Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur, Estonia must possess operational air defence systems by 2025 and so ideally the systems must reach by 2024. The purchase will be headed by Estonia Centre for Defence Investment. The countries aim to buy medium-range air defence systems like Iris-T, a surface-to-land missile. The details regarding price, capabilities, personnel, and training will be discussed during the negotiations. (Andrius Sytas, “Estonia and Latvia look to purchase mid-range air defence from Germany,” Reuters, 21 May 2023)
 
THE UK
Government announces EUR 39 million to research antimicrobial resistance
On 22 May, the UK government announced a Global AMR Innovation Fund (GAMRIF) of EUR 39 million for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) research. EUR 25 million will be used to develop antibiotics and vaccines. GARIF aims to establish a Global Health Framework to fight against global health threats. The Framework will ensure global health security, revise global health governance, and strengthen global health systems. The Framework will promulgate the UK’s role as a leader in the field of science and technology. Through this funding, EUR 24 million will be provided to CARB-X, a global AMR research initiative over a period of four years. EUR 10 million will be given to Canada’s International Research Centre (IRDC) over a period of four years. The initiative will be launched by UK’s Health Minister Will Quince in the World Health Assembly for the year 2023-2025. (“£39 million for AMR research as UK launches Global Health Framework,” GOV.UK, 22 May 2023)

Pressure mounts on the Prime Minister to probe Braverman for breaking ministerial code
On 21 May, The Guardian reported that pressure mounts on Rishi Sunak to probe Home Secretary Suella Braverman for breaching the Ministerial code, as she was found asking the Home Office civil servants for special treatment after being caught speeding. Sunak is en route to the UK after the G7 summit in Japan. He will have to decide quickly whether to investigate or not. Meanwhile, a senior Tory MP commented that there is “no appetite” in NO 10 to defend her. Braverman is due to appear before MPs' Home Office questions on Monday, and the MPs are not up for her survival. Rishi Sunak, at the press conference towards the end of the G7 Summit, evaded answering the questions saying he had full confidence in her. The secretary was fired once earlier for breaking the code under Liz Truss’s government but was later reappointed by Sunak after six days. (“Pippa Crerar, “Sunak under pressure to launch ethics inquiry over Braverman speeding row,” The Guardian, 21 May 2023)
 
Spring Storm 23: Royal Marines demonstrate flexibility and capability in exercise
On 22 May, the UK Ministry of Defence said in its press release that members of 45 Commando maneuvered their HMS Albion in a planned beach raid scenario as part of Exercise Spring Storm 23. Exercise Spring Storm 23 is the largest annual military exercise conducted by Estonia for NATO forces. The commanding officer of HMS Albion commented that the exercise was a great proving ground to demonstrate the ship’s flexibility and ability to cooperate with the regional partners in times of need. The exercise allowed Royal Marines to practice an amphibious deployment, infiltrating hostile territory to secure information, confuse the enemy or strike a high-value target. In addition, more than 1500 UK troops are currently deployed in Estonia for the exercise. (“Royal Marines conduct beach raid in Estonia during NATO exercise,” Ministry of Defence, 22 May 2023)
 
TURKEY
Kilicdaroglu slammed for accusing Russia of meddling in presidential elections
On 22 May, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu slammed Kemal Kilicdaroglu for accusing Russia of meddling in the first phase of the Presidential elections. He gave no proof or details to substantiate his accusation, while Kremlin denied it outright. Cavusoglu said: “Mr Kilicdaroglu has been threatening Russia. It is wrong to undermine our ties with a country like that.” He also asked him to “be more serious” and refrain from hurling baseless accusations at other countries based on his intuitions. (“Top Turkish Diplomat Slams Kilicdaroglu Over Russia Meddling Claims,” Sputnik, 22 May 2023)


20 May 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #520

War in Ukraine: Day 450

Photo : president.gov.ua


War in Ukraine: Day 450
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 19 May, Ukraine’s Armed Forces Eastern group spokesperson reported on the situation in Bakhmut. According to the report, the area remains a hotspot, while Ukraine forces have advanced to 500 meters defending the southwest front. In the fight Ukraine is reported to have destroyed Russia’s tank, armoured vehicle, four UAV’s and three ammunition depots. According to the spokesperson: “..carry out a combat mission as long as the command considers it appropriate, as long as it inflicts the utmost damage to the enemy and allows us to preserve our forces and means and prevent large casualties.”

On 19 May, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and representatives from UAE, Oman, and Kuwait during the Arab League Summit. During the meeting, both discussed on peace initiative and elements of the peace formula to end war and bring back peace. They also discussed on Saudi Arabia mediating the next exchange of prisoners, energy security, bilateral relations and protection of the Muslims in Ukraine.

On 19 May, Ukrinform reported on the ICC inspection team headed by Brenda Hollis report on Russia’s war crime. During the ICC visit, close to 10 sites were found to be documented confirming war crimes incurred against the civilians. It included the acts of “indiscriminate shelling, targeting medical facilities and residential buildings.” According to the report: “Everyone guilty of these crimes must be held accountable, including high-ranking officials.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 May, RT reported on Saudi Arabia’s stance in the Ukraine war following the meeting with Zelenskyy. According to the report it stated the Foreign Minister statement on how Saudi Arabia takes “positive neutrality,” as its position despite other Arab states being impartial. According to the minister: “we welcome hearing the viewpoints of both sides of [the] Russia-Ukrainian conflict.”

On 19 May, Russia announced a ban on 500 US individuals which include former president Barack Obama. The move comes in response to latest US sanctions in G7 summit. The list also extends to heads of the companies dealing in military support to Ukraine.

The West View       
Responses from the US and Europe 
      
On 19 May, following the discussion over the UK and Netherlands supporting a coalition to provide fighter jet training for the Ukrainian soldiers and Germany denying it. US President Joe Biden at the G7 summit, assured to support Ukraine with “advanced aircraft, and F-16s.” Biden said: “As the training takes place over the coming months, our coalition of countries participating in this effort will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them.” On the same, during the ministerial meet Portugal government announced its decision to join the coalition in training Ukrainians pilots.

On 19 May, in its intelligence update, UK Ministry of Defence reported on a damage in the Crimean rail line. Due to the damage, it predicts a disruption in the weapon delivery for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The rail line which leads into Sevastopol being blocked has resulted in a quick move by Russia to fix and such infrastructural damage raises concerns on Russia’s ability to keep its logistics in place.

References
Situation in Bakhmut: Armed Forces of Ukraine seize initiative, try to counterattack,” Ukrinform, 19 May 2023
In Saudi Arabia, President of Ukraine met with Crown Prince, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud,” president.gov.ua, 19 May 2023
In Saudi Arabia, the President met with the heads of delegations of the UAE, Oman and Kuwait.” president.gov.ua, 19 May 2023
International Criminal Court team gathering evidence of war crimes committed by Russia in Kherson,” Ukrinform, 19 May 2023
Saudi Arabia reveals stance on Ukraine conflict,” RT, 20 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy addresses Arab League Summit,” Deutsche Welle, 19 May 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 May 2023.,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 19 May 2023
Portugal joins air coalition for Ukraine – FM Kuleba,” Ukrinform, 19 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Nithyashree RB & Sreeja J S

ESTONIA
Exercise Spring Storm 23 moves to its active phase
On 18 May, the division commander of Estonia’s defence forces Major General Veiko-Vello Palm said that the most active phase of Spring Storm 23 would begin on 19 May. Spring Storm 23 is the largest Defence Forces exercise of the year conducted by Estonia, involving allied units from the US, UK and France. The focus of the exercise is on practicing planning and implementation of military operations and enhancing cooperation between Estonian and allied units. It will also focus on defeating the enemy in depth to inflict losses in close combat to prevent them from winning the battle. (“Exercise Spring Storm 23 enters its most active phase,” Republic of Estonia Defence Forces, 18 May 2023)

GERMANY
DAX stock index hits a record high on Friday
On 19 May, Germany's leading trading benchmark, the DAX stock market index, hit a record high of 16,331 points amid expanding market optimism. The upswing occurred in hopes of consensus in US Congress to lift the US debt ceiling to raise its credit limit and borrow more. The last record high at 16,290 points was recorded before Russia invaded Ukraine. Despite the turbulence in the global economy caused by COVID and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the DAX index is faring better since its expansion from 30 blue-chip companies to 40 in 2021. Beijing's decision to drop draconian COVID-19 restrictions also significantly contributed to the recovery of the Index. (“Germany's DAX stock index hits record high,” Deutsche Welle, 19 May 2023)

GREECE
Asylum seekers’ mistreatment confirmed as a new video emerges
On 19 May, Euronews reported on a video where asylum seekers were seen being left out in the middle of the sea by Greece's border patrol near the Lesbos island on 11 May. The video was shared by an anonymous activist to The New York Times. The video showed 12 asylum seekers arriving in a van and then transferred to a speedboat. They were seen boarding a Greek Coast Guard vessel and later abandoned in the Aegean Sea on an inflatable raft. The asylum seekers were rescued by Turkish Coast Guard. Greece has denied mistreating asylum seekers. The new evidence proves otherwise. (Giulia Carbonaro, “Evidence emerger of asylum seekers’ mistreatment in Greece, despite government’s denial,” Euronews, 19 May 2023)

HUNGARY
Protests against Status Law
On 19 May, thousands of Hungarians rallied against the Status Law which will eliminate the public servant status of teachers and teargassing of teenagers by the police in Budapest. The police teargassed the teenagers who according to them have pelted the police in a similar protest in early May 2023. The protesters called out the government’s inefficiency to offer teachers, better working conditions and higher salaries. Critics called out the Status Law as Revenge Law against teachers’ year-long protests. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government said that the law will enhance the quality of education. (Boldizsar Gyori, “Hungarians protest against new teachers’ law, police violence,” Reuters, 20 May 2023)

ICELAND
Iceland joins NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence
On 16 May, Iceland became a member of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence(CCDOE) in Tallinn, Estonia. CCDOE was established in 2008 to strengthen its members’ capacity to face cyber defence and cybersecurity challenges. It consists of 39 members, including NATO countries and partner nations. Membership in the organisation was one of the objectives of the government’s action plan on cyber security, published in 2022. (“Iceland becomes a member of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, Government of Iceland, 19 May 2023)

POLAND
Delay in adopting the judicial reform bill
On 19 May, Politico.eu exposed Poland’s divided Constitutional Tribunal which was supposed to adopt the judicial reform bill. Poland is yet to receive the COVID-19 recovery fund of EUR 36 billion from the EU. In order to receive that Poland has to adopt the judicial reform bill. In February 2023, Polish President Andrzej Duda sent the bill to Constitutional Tribunal to be reviewed. 11 judges are supposed to present at the meeting called by the tribunal’s President Julia Przylebska whose term has expired. Hence, six of the judges refuse to attend the meeting called by her. MPs have put forth a bill that reduces the number of judges from 11 to nine to review the judicial reforms bill. The parliament will decide on it from 24 to 26 May 2023. (Wojciech Kosc, “A civil war in Poland’s top court upends efforts to reconcile with Brussels,” Politico.eu, 19 May 2023) 

SERBIA
Protests against gun violence
On 19 May, thousands of protesters gathered in Belgrade against gun violence. This is the third protest this month following two mass shootings that killed 18 people. Opposition parties accuse President Aleksander Vucic’s government’s failure to stop the broadcasting of violent content. The protesters are calling for the resignation of the interior minister and the head of intelligence. On the same day, the opposition members left the parliament’s special session accusing the ruling party of silencing the protesters. Interior Minister Bratislav Gasic admitted that several complaints have been filed against the gun shooter but now actions have not been taken during the session. Vucic in a counter rally in Pancevo called out the opposition for using the protests for their self-promotion. (Ivana Sekularac, “Tens of thousands gather in Belgrade protest over mass shootings,” Reuters, 20 May 2023; “Serbia: Tens of thousands protest against gun violence,” Deutsche Welle, 20 May 2023)

THE UK
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly to visit Chile
On 19 May, the government announced that Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will visit Chile on 22 May. He will also meet Chilean Foreign Minister Alberto van Klaveren to commemorate 200 years of diplomatic relations. This visit is part of a Latin America and Caribbean tour. The delegated will discuss bilateral trade relations, climate change and sustainability. The Foreign Secretary will commence a campaign to celebrate Great Britain’s first Consul General in Chile 200 years ago. (“Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visits Chile,” GOV.UK, 19 May 2023)


19 May 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #519

EM in Brief: UK and Norway to cooperate against threats to undersea infrastructure 

Photo : www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-plans-1-bln-pounds-semiconductor-investment-new-strategy-2023-05-18/


IN BRIEF
By Nithyashree RB, Sreeja JS, and Melvin George

ITALY
Central Bank criticizes the new tax bill
On 18 May, Italy’s central bank said that reducing the tax bands and reducing the tax burden while providing an extensive welfare system is unrealistic. In March 2023, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni approved a bill which will reduce the income tax bands from four to three and eventually launch a flat tax model. The bill will supposedly increase investment and hiring rates and avoid tax evasion. While trade unions and opposition parties criticized the bill as advantageous to the rich, the government assured that the budget deficit will be lower. (Giuseppe Fonte, “Italian government’s flat tax plan may be unrealistic, central bank says,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)

TURKEY
Kemal Kilicdaroglu vows to send back refugees
On 18 May, Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said that he will send back all the refugees in Turkey if he becomes the president in an interview. He said ten million refugees are to come and they will indulge in criminal activities such as looting. Earlier Kilicdaroglu’s election campaigning focused on political reforms, Turkey’s EU membership bid, and closer ties with the West. Ahead of the second round of the election on 21 May, he criticized Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for allowing ten million refugees into Turkey and for jeopardising Turkish citizenship. (“Erdogan’s rival pledges to expel ‘all refugees’ from Türkiye,” RT, 18 May 2023)

THE UK
UK to invest in semiconductor design and research
On 19 May, Britain announced a strategic investment in the semiconductor sector in order to strengthen the domestic industry and supply chains. The newly formed Department of Science, Innovation and Technology will be focusing on semiconductor design and research. One billion pounds were announced, out of which 200 million will be invested in 2023 to 2025, the rest during the next decade. During the G7 meeting, a “semiconductor partnership” was agreed to be launched between Japan and Britain similar to the one Britain has with South Korea. The investment for chip manufacturing will be announced by autumn. Similar to US chip subsidies and European Union investments in the sector, these measures were taken in order to protect the manufacturing sector from supply chain disruptions in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. (Alistair Smout and Sachin Ravikumar, “UK plans 1 bln pounds of semiconductor investment in new strategy”, Reuters, 18 May 2023)

REGIONAL
UK and Norway to cooperate against threats to undersea infrastructure 
On 18 May, the UK government said that along with Norway, it would increase their collaboration to protect the undersea infrastructure from threats. UK's Defence Minister Ben Wallace said: "The attack on the Nord Stream pipeline has determined even closer collaboration across our collective assets to detect and defend against subsea threats and ensure continued North Atlantic security." (Alistair Smout and Kylie Maclellan “UK and Norway agree cooperation to counter undersea threats”, Reuters, 18 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
US and UK to tighten sanctions on Russia as G7 Summit commences
On 19 May, the G7 leaders are gathering at Hiroshima for the G7 summit, where they will unveil new sanctions and export controls against Russia. The renewed US sanctions package will include severe restrictions on goods key to the battlefield and add 70 Russian entities to the US commerce department’s blacklist. It will also announce 300 new sanctions against Russia’s “financial facilitators,” helping the war. The sanctions are likely to be extended to more sectors of the Russian economy. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he wants to ensure “Russia pays a price” for the war atrocities in Ukraine. He also expects others to follow suit. Import bans on Russian gold, diamond, copper, aluminium and nickel are likely to be implemented by the UK. The government is also planning to target 86 more people and companies connected to Putin “actively undermining the impact of existing sanctions.” (Jeff Mason, Trevor Hunnicutt, Daphne Psaledakis and Susan Heavey, “U.S., G7 to unveil new sanctions targeting Russia over Ukraine,” Reuters, 19 May 2023; “G7: New sanctions will make sure Russia pays a price, Sunak says,” BBC News, 19 May 2023)

Free trade between India and UK doubtful
On 18 May, Reuters reported that the free trade deal between UK and India is doubtful due to mutual differences in some key tariff lines and investment protection rules. India wants to levy import duties on car and liquor imports that the UK denies. India is against Britain’s insistence that its companies be allowed to seek international arbitration without going to Indian courts first should a dispute arise. (Shivangi Acharya, Aditi Shah and Aftab Ahmed, “Exclusive: India, UK still far apart on free trade deal - sources,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)

GENDER
Slovakia to bar transgender people from changing their gender
On 18 May, Reuters reported that Slovakia’s parliament will vote on legal recognition of transgender people. If the bill is passed, transgender people will not be able to change their gender in official documents. Gender will be assigned according to the number of chromosomes present through a genetic test. According to the Slovak psychiatric society, genetic tests do not always indicate gender correctly. At present, transgender people in Slovakia can change their names, surnames, gender and birth number. The bill will allow transgender people to change their names only. (Jan Lopatka, “Slovaks near vote on banning legal recognition for transgender people,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)


18 May 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #518

War in Ukraine: Day 448 | Fighter jet coalition to train Ukraine’s pilots

European leaders establish 'Register of Damage' for Ukraine

Photo : R Skywalker/ mil.in.ua


War in Ukraine: Day 448
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 16 May, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry announced in its Twitter on joining NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. Ukraine will come under the cyber protection, training, education, and countermeasures from the NATO cyber defence specialists.

On 17 May, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal statement from the Council of Europe Summit. At the summit, he discussed how the agenda aims to hold Russia accountable for the damage caused in Ukraine. He also mentioned that the formation of an international tribunal will aid in exposing Russia's political and military crimes. Shmyhal confirmed the creation of the register to keep record of the damage inflicted by Russia. He said: “Our goal is to create a comprehensive compensation mechanism that will ensure that Russia pays full compensation to Ukraine in accordance with international law.”

On 17 May, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s Armed Forces spokesperson's report on the Bakhmut situation. The UAF has noticed that Russian forces are gathering in the regions of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. The areas of Bakhmut and Marinka seem to be the primary points of focus. The area was struck by S-300 air defence, 40 attacks from multiple rocket launchers, resulting in civilian and infrastructural damage.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 17 May, RT reported on Russia’s first successful trial of self-propelled howitzer, 2S43 Malva. This was confirmed by the Director of Uralvagonzavod. According to the report, the weapon is seen as a substitute for the French-made Caesar howitzers. It has a 152-mm gun that can target a wide range of areas. Earlier, T-14 Armata tanks were deployed in the front line which prompted Ukraine to demand for more weapons from the West.

On 17 May, RT reported on South Africa’s ground forces Commander visit to Moscow amid US’s accusation of it supporting Russia through arms. The visit was seen as a “goodwill visit” by the Russian army and the Commander added that it was planned to discuss on bilateral arrangement.

The West View         
Responses from the US and Europe     

On 17 May, the Federal Ministry of Defence in Germany has announced that they will not be joining the coalition formed by the UK and the Netherlands. It welcomed the move to help boosting Ukraine’s defence; however, since Germany does not have the technology or can provide training on fighter jets, it will not be able to be part of the coalition. This follows after the UK and the Netherlands agreed to form an international coalition to provide training to the Ukraine pilots to handle the fighter jets. On the other hand, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda expressed Poland’s support to join UK’s coalition in training Ukrainian crew for F-16 fighter jets.

On 17 May, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tweeted on the extension of the grain deal. The deal is extended for two months till 18 July and Erdogan assured take efforts to carry out the next extension. He also confirmed that Russia would not bar Turkey’s ships from entering Mykolaiv and Olvia. Erdogan said: “I wish that this decision, which is vital for the smooth operation of global food supply chains and especially for facilitating access to grain for countries in need, will be beneficial to all parties.”

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war

On 17 May, RT reported on South Africa's Foreign Ministry announcement on the scheduled visit of six Presidents from Africa to Moscow and Ukraine in June. The visit is aimed at promoting negotiation between the two to attain consent for a ceasefire. South Africa’s Cooperation Director-General Zane Dangor said: “We have also engaged with other actors, including the US. There is general support for this initiative that President Ramaphosa announced.”

On 15 May, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan raised concerns over the break in its shipment and logistics due to efforts to vent from sanctions imposed from the Ukraine war. He states that due to the sanctions imposed by the West, Armenia has been obligated to create newer channels for trade. He claimed that despite being transparent and cooperative with the US, the EU, and Russia, Armenia has not been able to afford to follow the sanctions.


References
MFA of Ukraine,” Twitter, 16 May 2023
Shmyhal in Reykjavik: All Russian war criminals will be brought to justice,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
Register of Ukraine's losses from Russian aggression created at CoE summit,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
Sanctions are Armenia’s red lines, and we are clearly telling this to the Russians – PM Pashinyan,” armenpress.am, 15 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Grain deal extended for another two months,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023
UK, German defense ministers: Decision on providing Ukraine with F-16s depends on United States,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
Duda: Poland ready to support training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
Ülkemizin gayretleri, Rus dostlarımızın desteği ve Ukraynalı dostlarımızın katkılarıyla Karadeniz Tahıl Koridoru Anlaşması'nın 2 ay daha uzatılmasına karar verildi.,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan/Twitter, 17 May 2023
Heavy fighting going on for Bakhmut – Ukraine's General Staff,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
South Africa’s army chief visits Moscow,” RT, 17 May 2023
Africa to send six presidents to Moscow and Kiev,” RT, 17 May 2023
Russia fields new artillery system,” RT, 17 May 2023


IN BRIEF 
By Rishika Yadav, and Sreeja JS 

GERMANY
Defence Minister declines role in fighter jet coalition for Ukraine
On 17 May, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius remarked during a joint press conference with UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace in Berlin: “Germany lacks the necessary planes, capabilities, and expertise to participate in a coalition for supplying fighter jets to Ukraine.” The UK, along with the Netherlands, announced their efforts to establish an international coalition for Ukraine to acquire F-16 fighter jets from allies. Previously, Berlin, Washington, and London had declined to provide their own fighter jets to Kyiv. (“Germany doesn’t have capabilities to be in coalition to supply jets to Kiev — minister,” TASS, 17 May 2023)
 
HUNGARY

Foreign Minister threatens to block EU military support over blacklisting of its bank
On 17 May, Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated: “Hungary will veto the next tranche of EU military aid for Ukraine and any new sanctions against Russia unless Ukraine removes Hungarian bank OTP from its list of war sponsors.” The allocation of 500 million euros from the European Peace Facility for military aid to Ukraine has been delayed by Hungary. While the initial demand was for funding guarantees for other regions, the primary reason for the delay is Ukraine's decision to blacklist OTP bank. (Boldizsar Gyori, “Hungary to block EU military aid fund for Ukraine unless Kyiv takes OTP bank off blacklist,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)
 
RUSSIA

Dmitry Medvedev sparks controversy on the Baltic States and Poland
On 16 May, Russia’s former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev sparked controversy by referring to the Baltic states as "our" provinces and labeling Poland as "temporarily occupied." Medvedev's comments came in response to French President Emmanuel Macron's statement that Russia had lost its geopolitical standing. He criticized NATO's presence in Poland and accused Europe of being subservient to the "perverted whims of Americans." The Ukraine conflict has increased inflation across Europe, impacting food and energy prices. However, a Eurobarometer poll has shown that most citizens of the EU still endorse the bloc's aid to Ukraine. (Joshua Askew, “Russia's Dmitry Medvedev claims Baltic countries belong to Russia,” Euronews, 17 May 2023)
 
THE UK

Ford, JLR joins Stellantis to demand a renegotiation of the Brexit deal
On 17 May, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, and Stellantis are urging the UK government to reexamine the regulations regarding the origin of parts in the Brexit agreement. This is necessary to prevent the current risks faced by the British automotive sector. The current post-Brexit rules require 40 per cent of electric vehicle parts to be sourced in the UK or EU if they are to be sold on the other side of the channel without a 10 per cent tariff. The proportion is likely to rise to 45 per cent in 2024 as electric vehicle batteries are still imported from Asia. According to Stellantis, the tariffs would make vehicles manufactured in the country and the EU fall foul of the rules. The company would also be forced to shut down some of its factories in the UK, putting at risk about 800,000 jobs. Ford added that this rule would add unnecessary costs for customers who want to go green. JLR said that the rules are unrealistic and counterproductive and called for hasty action to delay the rules. ( Jasper Jolly and Mark Sweney, “Ford, Vauxhall owner and JLR call for UK to renegotiate Brexit deal,” The Guardian, 17 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE

European leaders establish 'Register of Damage' for Ukraine
On 17 May, leaders from European countries approved the establishment of a "Register of Damage" to document the destruction caused by Russian forces in Ukraine, following a Council of Europe (CoE) summit held in Iceland. The register aims to hold Russia accountable for the damages and provide justice for the victims of the conflict. Forty countries have already signed onto the initiative, with three others finalizing their internal procedures to join. Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, highlighted the importance of the registry in holding Russian occupiers accountable for war crimes and seeking reparations for the extensive harm caused to Ukraine. The register received support from other leaders within the CoE, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The United States, Canada, and Japan also expressed their endorsement. (“Council of Europe approves Register of Damage against Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023)
 

UK and Germany leaves decision on supplying fighter jets to Ukraine on the US
On 17 May, Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated: “The decision to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine would be up to the White House,” after a meeting with his British counterpart Ben Wallace. The Ukrainian military desires F-16s due to their destructive power and cost-effectiveness. Pistorius emphasized that Germany lacked the necessary capabilities and would not actively participate in such a coalition. Similarly, the UK does not possess F-16s but is collaborating with the Netherlands to establish an international "jet coalition" to assist Ukraine. (“Germany and UK say US must decide on fighter jets to Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL

EU adopts draft MoU to enhance cooperation with UK
On 17 May, the European Union’s executive body officially approved a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at facilitating closer collaboration between financial regulators in the UK and the EU. This agreement, however, falls short of granting market access. The UK's financial sector lost its previous unrestricted entry to the EU market, following Brexit, raising concerns about London's status as a global financial hub. The MoU, once politically endorsed by EU member states, will establish a joint EU-UK Financial Regulatory Forum, similar to the one already existing with the United States. Importantly, the MoU does not address market access or pre-determine equivalence decisions. (Huw Jones, “EU pushes forward with post-Brexit forum for EU, UK financial regulators,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)
 

Black Sea grain deal extended for another two months
On 17 May, BBC News reported that the Black Sea grain deal was extended for another two months through negotiation by both the UN and Turkey, despite concerns that Russia could pull out of the pact. The deal was first agreed upon in July 2022 against the fears of global food shortages due to the war in Ukraine, and it has been renewed several times. Through this deal, more than 30 metric tonnes of grain have left Ukraine to the world’s poorest countries. Russia had briefly withdrawn from the deal in November 2022, accusing Ukraine of attacking its fleet in Crimea, but rejoined a few days later. (“Ukraine conflict: Black Sea grain deal extended for two months,” BBC News, 17 May 2023)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE

Southern Europe braces for severe drought and worst agricultural yields
On 18 May, Reuters reported that Southern Europe is preparing for a summer plagued by intense drought, as rising temperatures and diminishing rainfall continue to worsen the situation. Spain and other regions are already experiencing water shortages, with farmers expecting their worst harvests in years. Groundwater reserves have been depleted due to consecutive years of drought, resulting in bone-dry soils in Spain and southern France. Low river and reservoir levels also pose a threat to hydropower production. Spain has requested emergency assistance from the EU, highlighting the magnitude of the drought's consequences. Despite long-standing climate change forecasts, preparations to mitigate the impact of drought have been insufficient. (Kate Abnett, “Southern Europe braces for climate change-fuelled summer of drought,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Academics urge European powers to stand for democracy in Tunisia
On 17 May, according to The Guardian, 70 academics urged the European leaders to stand by and support pro-democracy Tunisians to revive the declining democracy in Tunisia via a letter in part collated by his daughter, Soumaya Ghannoushi. This letter comes in response to the arrest of Rached Ghannouchi, the opposition leader of Tunisia, on 17 April 2023 and his subsequent sentencing to a year in jail on 15 May. The letter further stressed the precarious condition of the opposition leaders, who are either arrested or constantly threatened for opposing the president and the undemocratic government. At present, the EU is seeking to avoid political and economic collapse in Tunisia, fearing this would increase the number of people leaving the country for Italy. (Patrick Wintour, “European leaders urged to help Tunisians resist assault on democracy,” The Guardian, 17 May 2023)


17 May 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #517

War in Ukraine: Day 447

US delivers 31 Abrams to Germany to train Ukraine soldiers

Photo : ARKnews.net


War in Ukraine: Day 447
By Padmashree Anandhan 

WAR ON THE GROUND

On 16 May, Ukraine’s commander of land forces Oleksandr Syrskyi commented on how Bakhmut has become a trap for Russian forces. He described Wagner Groups as rats walking into the Bakhmut trap. Syrskyi appreciated Ukraine’s ability in counterattacks in areas near Bakhmut despite Russia’s abundant resources. Earlier Ukraine claimed on pushing back Russian forces back into north and south-west by “several kilometres.”

On 16 May, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence reported on the number of Russian deployed in Ukraine. In the report it revealed that close to 400,000 Russians had been installed in Ukraine, of which 370,000 were soldiers and 20,000 belonged to Russia’s elite paramilitary unit. It observed that Russia had never involved foreigner fighters but have used convicts as replacement.


THE MOSCOW VIEW 
Claims by Russia

On 16 May, Russian defence ministry claimed on carrying out a precision strike using Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile to destroy Ukraine’s Patriot defence system. No further details on attack were revealed. In also confirmed on hitting on Ukraine’s staged munitions, weapon, military hardware received from the West.

On 16 May, RT reported on Russia’s defence ministry claim on intercepting UK’s storm shadow missiles and 22 drones. This includes HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and anti-radar missiles. It is the first time Russia reported on striking down storm shadow missiles. UK confirmed the supply of the cruise missile in the  previous week which has a range capacity of 300 kilometres.


THE WEST VIEW         
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 16 May, aligning with the pledges made to Ukraine, the US delivered 31 tanks to Germany’s military training centre. This will be used by Germany in training the Ukraine crews. According to a spokesperson from Pentagon: “I can confirm that the 31 M1 Abrams training tanks have arrived at Grafenwöhr, Germany in preparation for subsequent training of Ukrainian tank crews.”

On 16 May, Deutsche Welle reported on the upcoming Council of Europe Summit in Iceland which will focus on Ukraine war. Important European leaders from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s President Georgia Meloni, European Commission and Council President are expected to participate. Although the Council of Europe does not have a “high-stake profile” as the EU, it stands as a protector of human rights and rule of law in Europe.

On 16 May, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte jointly promised to form an “international coalition” to give fighter jet support to Ukraine. According to the spokesperson from Sunak’s office stated that under the coalition, Ukraine will be boosted with combat air capabilities, and training capacity to procure F-16 jets. The move comes after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Sunak on 15 May.

References 
“‘Like Rats into a Mousetrap’ – Russians Trying to Advance in Bakhmut Despite Ukrainian Gains,” The Kyiv Post, 17 May 2023
Patriot missile base in Kiev destroyed by hypersonic strike – Moscow,” RT, 16 May 2023
Seven UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles shot down – Moscow,” RT, 16 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Heavy Russian air raid repelled, Kyiv says,” Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS 

ALBANIA
Government confirms return of Albanian prisoners sent by the UK
On 17 May, according to BBC News, the Albanian government confirmed that the UK paid the Albanian prisoners 1500 EUR to go back to Albania. Some returned to Albania voluntarily while some were forcibly sent. The prisoners were released under the UK's Early Release Scheme (ERS) which provides a financial incentive to those who agree to be deported and would not appeal. In December 2022, the UK and the Albanian government signed an agreement to stop illegal migration. Ever since the deportation flights to Albania have increased. According to the UK government’s Home Office, more than 1000 people returned to Albania. Albanian police said most of the deported Albanians were foreign offenders in the UK prisons and were forcibly sent. (Lucy Williamson, “Albanian prisoners paid by UK government to return home,” BBC News, 17 May 2023)

ITALY
Floods in the Emilia-Romagna region kills eight people
On 17 May, according to Vice President Irene Piola, eight people died due to the floods in the Emilia-Romagna region due to a torrential downpour. Thousands were evacuated. The Italian Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said that the rainfall was twice the amount of the average rainfall in 36 hours. The Formula One race which was to be held in Imola is cancelled due to the floods. (Crispian Balmer, “Eight dead and thousands evacuated as floods batter northern Italy,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)

Stellantis urges the government to renegotiate Brexit rules
On 17 May, The Guardian reported that Sellantis urged the government to renegotiate rules in the Brexit deal that otherwise could force it to shut its UK operations, putting thousands of jobs at risk. The company said they can no longer comply with the rule that 45 per cent of the parts by value should be sourced in the UK or EU by 2024. This means that the electric vans from the Ellesmere Port site will face tariffs of 10 per cent on their export to mainland Europe from 2024 because of the reduced supply of locally sourced parts. (Jasper Jolly and Mark Sweney, “Vauxhall maker says Brexit deal must be renegotiated or it could shut UK plant,” The Guardian, 17 May 2023)

TURKEY
Last ship leaves Ukraine under the grain deal agreed till May
On 17 May, according to the UN, the last ship, DSM Capella carrying 30,000 tonnes of corn left the Chornomorsk port to Turkey. The deal ends on 18 May. Russia is still waiting to revive the deal unless its demands are met. Moscow says that it has obstacles in grain and fertilisers and exports but the UN has agreed to help with its agricultural shipments in 2022. The Black Sea Grain deal was signed in July 2022 for a period of 120 days and was extended up to another 120 days. In March 2018, Moscow shortened the extension to 60 days. (Michelle Nochols, “Last ship leaves Ukraine as fate of Black Sea grain deal in Russia’s hands,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)

Supreme election council announces the contenders for the second round of elections
On 16 May, according to BBC News, the supreme election council announced the contenders for the presidential election that is to be held on 28 May. On 14 May, in the first round of elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured 49.51 per cent. The opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu secured 44.88 per cent. The third opposition leader Sinan Ogan secured 5.17 per cent and his supporters are likely to vote for the opposition. The Erdogan-led Justice and Development Party (AKP) party won 267 seats in the parliament. The Kilicdaroglu-led opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 169 seats in the first round of elections. (Paul Kirby, “Turkey’s presidential race to be decided in run-off,” BBC News, 16 May 2023)

UKRAINE
Air force denies the destruction of the Patriot missile defence system
On 16 May, Russia claimed that its Kinzhal missile has destroyed the US Patriot missile defence system in Kyiv. On 17 May, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat denied the Russian claims. The Patriot missile defence system is capable of countering aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles and launchers are aided with radars. Kyiv said that it had shot down six Kinzhal Missiles and Moscow denied the claims. (Olena Harmash, “Ukraine denies Russia destroyed Patriot missile defence system,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)

US’s Patriot likely to be damaged by a Russian missile says Reuters
On 16 May, according to Reuters, the US-made Patriot defence system was likely to be damaged by a Russian missile strike but not destroyed and could be repaired. Patriot is one of the sophisticated air defence systems supplied by the West to help Ukraine defend against Russian air strikes. It has launchers, radar, and other support vehicles that can attack aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. (Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart and Mike Stone, “Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources,” Reuters, 16 May 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
UK to accomplish its climate adaptation plan against flooding by 2050
On 17 May, the UK government said that it will accelerate the existing climate adaptation plans to improve the defences against the floods. The climate adaptation program was targeted to be completed by 2065 but now the government will complete it by 2050. The move was a response to a new climate model. The model asserts that flooding from the Thames estuary in London is highly possible due to rising sea levels and a warming climate. The revised plan will be published by today. (William James, “UK accelerates London flood define plan to counter rising climate risk,” Reuters, 17 May 2023) 

INTERNATIONAL
Liz Truss visits Taiwan, China calls it a dangerous political show
On 15 May, Liz Truss arrived in Taiwan for a five-day visit. Truss stated that she came to show her support for Taiwan, which is on the frontlines of the global battle for freedom under China’s threat. In her controversial speech at the Prospect Foundation, she called for an “economic Nato” to fight against China. She urged Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to take action against China, shut down UK-based Confucius institutes, and refrain from restarting economic dialogue with China. She is one of the top leaders who visited Taiwan recently. She was heavily criticized by the Chinese Embassy in London, which called her trip a dangerous political show that would only harm the UK. It also called upon Truss to correct her wrongdoing and stop supporting Taiwan and its ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces. (Nadeem Badshah, “Chinese embassy calls Liz Truss’s trip to Taiwan a ‘dangerous political stunt’ The Guardian, 16 May 2023. Helen Davidson, “Liz Truss in Taiwan calls for ‘economic Nato’ to challenge China,” The Guardian, 16 May 2023)


16 May 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #516

EM in Brief: The UK and the Netherlands agree on a international fighter jet coalition

Photo : AP Photo


IN BRIEF
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS 

GERMANY
Foreign Minister calls for UN's role in achieving peace in Yemen
On 16 May, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock highlighted the UN's Role in achieving lasting peace in Yemen amidst positive regional developments. Baerbock emphasized that the United Nations must play a crucial role in securing long-term peace in war-torn Yemen. During her visit to Saudi Arabia, Baerbock called for all parties involved in the civil war to engage in negotiations for a ceasefire. Baerbock also met with Yemeni officials and the UN Coordinator for Yemen to discuss the dire humanitarian situation in the country, with approximately 21 million people, including 11 million children, in need of aid. Baerbock later traveled to Qatar to address the situation of foreign migrant workers. (“Germany's Baerbock says UN must broker Yemen peace,” Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2023)

The UK
UK faces criticism for removing housing protections for asylum seekers
On 16 May, The Guardian reported that the UK has introduced new rules to remove housing protections for asylum seekers, prompting concerns of cramped and unsafe conditions. Proposed changes would exempt landlords from regulations, including safety and room size requirements, raising fears of overcrowding. UK’s home secretary, Suella Braverman, and the housing secretary, Michael Gove, have put forward the plans, which face a parliamentary vote. If approved, landlords in England and Wales would no longer need to register with local authorities, and asylum seekers could be housed for up to two years without a House in Multiple Occupation (HMO) license. Critics warn that without houses in multiple occupation (HMO)  licenses, already vulnerable individuals may be forced into inadequate living spaces. The move comes as the government seeks to reduce the number of asylum seekers housed in hotels, where unsanitary conditions and disease outbreaks have occurred. (Kiran Stacey, “Asylum seekers in England and Wales to lose basic protections in move to cut hotel use,” The Guardian, 16 May 2023)

Increase in Bank of England's interest rate affects UK labor market
On 16 May, The Guardian reported that hikes in interest rates of Bank of England are influencing businesses' hiring decisions, leading to a decrease in job vacancies. Additionally, the high cost of living is compelling more individuals to reenter the workforce. Recent labor data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals a drop of 55,000 vacancies and a decrease of 156,000 inactive workers in the three months leading up to April. His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) figures also indicate a reduction of 136,000 PAYE employees between March and April, marking the first decline since February 2021. (Phillip Inman, “UK interest rate rises are taking the labor market off the boil,” The Guardian, 16 May 2023)

TURKEY
Turkish presidential runoff emerges as Erdogan faces opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu
On 16 May, U.S. News published an analysis on Turkey’s elections. It reported that Turkey is set for a presidential runoff election on May 28, as no candidate secured the required majority in the first round. Despite declining popularity, Erdoğan maintains support through his coalition with smaller parties. Factors contributing to his success include prioritizing national security over economic challenges, as well as voter concerns about coalition governments and opposition leadership. Erdoğan's victory would solidify his authoritarian governance and weaken the opposition further. The outcome will also impact local elections in March 2024, potentially expanding AKP's control over major municipalities. (Salih Yasun, “How Erdoğan Defied the Polls in Turkey's Presidential Election,” U.S. News, 16 May 2023)

UKRAINE
Ukrainian air defences repel Russian missile attack
On 16 May, Deutsche Welle reported that Ukrainian air defences successfully thwarted a significant missile assault from Russia overnight, according to officials in Kyiv. The attack, the eighth in May, targeted the Ukrainian capital with a barrage of drones, cruise missiles, and potentially ballistic missiles. Kyiv reported shooting down objects in multiple districts, while Russian defence officials claimed all targets were hit. The Ukrainian Defence Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov announced that six Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and 12 other missiles were shot down during the attacks. (“Ukraine updates: Heavy Russian air raid repelled, Kyiv says,” Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2023)

REGIONAL
Advertising industry faces stricter rules on greenwashing amid climate crisis
On 15 May, The Guardian reported that regulators in London and Brussels are set to impose stricter regulations on companies, scrutinizing terms such as "carbon neutral," "nature positive," and offsetting claims. Advertising agencies are grappling with their involvement in greenwashing scandals and their support for clients contributing to the climate and nature crises. The Advertising Standards Authority in the UK will subject misleading environmental claims to closer examination. Advertisers are now working closely with legal teams to advise clients on climate claims, facing the risk of fines and ad bans. Despite initiatives like Ad Net Zero aiming to reduce the industry's carbon impact, many agencies are establishing in-house sustainability teams. The recent EU parliament vote to ban offset-based carbon neutrality claims adds to the pressure for transparent information. The clampdown on greenwashing offers competitive advantages to companies with genuine environmental commitments while complicating matters for those with overstated claims. The industry also faces friction over agencies working with fossil fuel companies, with some organizations advocating for disassociation. (Ellen Ormesher and Patrick Greenfield, “Greenwashing era is over, say ad agencies, as regulators get tough,” The Guardian, 15 May 2023)

UK and Netherlands agreed to build an ‘international coalition’ to help Ukraine
On 16 May, the government announced that Rishi Sunak and Dutch leader Mark Rutte agreed upon building an ‘international coalition’ to assist Ukraine in procuring F-16 jets and supporting it with everything from training to procurement. The leaders also pledged to continue working together, both bilaterally and through forums, to tackle human trafficking on the continent. The statement comes after Zelenskiy’s comment that Kyiv could soon receive F-16 jets after his unannounced visit to the UK on 15 May. (“UK and Netherlands agree ‘international coalition’ to help Ukraine procure F-16 jets,” The Guardian, 16 May 2023)


13 May, 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief # 513

Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes

Photo : REUTERS/Murad Sezer


EM Comment 
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
By Rishika Yadav

Turkey’s Elections: A brief background since 2002
On 03 November 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a conservative party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won the general election and emerged as a successor to previous Islamist parties that were barred from running for parliament. He became prime minister in March 2003, and it is the first single-party government since 1987 and the first two-party parliament since 1961. 

On 28 August 2014, Erdogan became the 12th President of Turkey and appointed his former foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, as the new prime minister.
 
On 24 June 2018, Turkey became a presidential system of government from a parliamentary one, following the proposed constitutional referendum by AKP and MHP in 2017. The referendum granted more power to the president and eliminated the prime minister's role. The alterations took effect after the next election. 

On 20 March, 2021, Turkey withdrew from the Istanbul Convention in March, triggering protests from women's rights advocates and condemnation from the UN and other nations. 

On 14 May 2023, Turkey is about to foresee the crucial and highly competitive general and presidential elections. Erdogan, representing the AKP-Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) coalition, competes against his primary rival Kilicdaroglu of the Nation Alliance, featuring the IYI, SP, and DEVA parties. Overseas voting began on 27 April, and on 10 May, ballots were flown back to Turkey. Turks in Germany turned out in record high numbers to vote.

May 2023 Elections: Major issues
1. Erdogan’s rating
According to MetroPoll's "The Pulse of Turkey" survey, President Erdogan's approval rating continued to decline in July despite efforts to improve his popularity. Erdogan's disapproval rating rose to 53.7 per cent, while his approval rating fell to 41.5 per cent, 2.7 per cent less than June.  

2. Outrage amongst the Women
The withdrawal of Turkey from the Istanbul Convention has provoked outrage among women's rights groups and sparked a gender debate in the elections. Only 17.4 per cent of the candidates for parliament are women, and the Halkların Demokratik Partisi (HDP) is the only party with a female presidential candidate. The AKP's campaign highlights traditional gender roles and family values, while the opposition advocates for women's rights and challenges Erdogan's decision on the Istanbul Convention. 

3. The Economic Crisis
Turkey experiences a deepening economic crisis following the Covid pandemic in 2020, with inflation at its highest level since 2002, reaching 36 per cent in December. Despite the central bank's interest rate hikes, the Turkish lira's value against the US dollar drops by over 40 per cent. 

4. Fallouts of the earthquake
The February earthquake in Turkey has impacted the elections. It has exposed the government's inability to implement safety regulations and emergency planning, resulting in fatalities and criticisms directed towards President Erdogan's party. The electoral process was also disrupted, with calls to postpone the elections due to damaged polling stations and campaign activities being limited. The earthquake has also shifted public attention, with people more concerned about survival and recovery than their political preferences, potentially affecting voting behavior.

5. Opposition to Erdogan
On 11 May, Homeland Party’s presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew his candidacy. The withdrawal of Ince is advantageous for the National Alliance coalition under Kemal Kilicdaroglu as it could help him win in the first round. According to Metropoll, 49 per cent of Ince’s support will shift towards Kilicdaroglu while 22 per cent will shift towards Erdogan.

On the same lines, AKP’s alliance with the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish HUDA-PAR (an extension of Kurdish Hizbullah) jeopardizes his win. Erdogan also faces nationalist allies' pressure for a more hardline stance against the Kurdish issue and military intervention in regional conflicts such as Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

What will be the outcome?
The outcome of Turkey’s 2023 election will determine Turkey's leadership, governance, economy, and global role, with Erdogan facing the toughest challenge, as young voters hold his fate. Parties such as HUDA-PAR, known for criminal activities, demanded the criminalization of adultery, restrictions on women's mobility, and changing the eligibility age for marriage. 

Within the party, female candidates such as Ozlem Zengin say that these demands have crossed the red line. Erdogan faces growing discontent and criticism from the opposition, the business sector, and the public over his economic policies and his handling of the pandemic. Erdogan's decline in popularity comes amid his threat to block Sweden and Finland's applications to join NATO. 


IN BRIEF
by Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

DENMARK
Denmark-Greenland relations take a deteriorating turn
On 12 May, Denmark-Greenland relations deteriorated as a Greenlandic MP refused to speak in Danish during a debate in the Danish parliament. Instead, she used Inuit, her native language, frustrating the Danish lawmakers. Relations started declining because of the untoward approach of Denmark towards Greenland and its people, especially in the 1960s and 1970s. In 2009, the island was granted self-governing autonomy, including the right to declare independence. Further, Greenland's government presented its first draft constitution to its parliament in early May 2023. (Nikolaj Skydsgaard and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen, " Awkward moment in Denmark's parliament as Greenlandic MP refuses to speak Danish," Reuters, 12 May 2023)

GERMANY
Targeted attack near Dusseldorf
On 11 May, in Ratingen, while on a regular patrol police were attacked by a 57-year-old suspect with a burning liquid made of petrol. Police arrived to check on a woman who hadn't emptied her post box. The suspect threw a container full of that liquid after setting it ablaze on the police and the firefighters. An older woman’s body, likely dead a week ago, was found. The intentions of the suspect are still unclear. (“Germany: Apartment blast near Dusseldorf ‘targeted attack’,” Deutsche Welle, 12 May 2023)

PORTUGAL
Parliament legalises euthanasia
On 12 May, Portugal legalized euthanasia for nationals and legal residents over the age of 18 who have incurable diseases and undergo lasting and unbearable pain. The Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa opposed the euthanasia bill four times and sent it back for constitutional review. He vetoed the bill as the definition of terminal condition was unclear. The new version authorizes euthanasia when medically assisted suicide is impossible. The president has a week to promulgate the law. (“Portuguese parliament legalises euthanasia after long battle,” The Guardian, 12 May 2023)

RUSSIA
Black Sea Fleet tightens its defence at Sevastopol
On May 12, in an interview with Reuters, the Russian commander said that the Black Sea Fleet has been tightening its defences at Sevastopol in Crimea against the Ukrainian drone attacks since February 2022. (Kevin Liffey, Russia's Black Sea Fleet beefs up defences amid drone strikes -commander,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

Russia denies meddling in Turkey’s elections
On 13 May, BBC News reported that Russian Spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russia’s interference in Turkey’s presidential elections. According to BBC News, Turkey’s opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu commented earlier that the Turkish government colluded with foreign hackers paid in Bitcoins. Kilicdaroglu in a tweet accused Russia of releasing fake content in Turkey. Peskov added that Russia values its relationship with Turkey and that Ankara’s foreign policy decisions have been responsible. Kilicdaroglu in an interview with BBC News told that if he wins he will establish closer relations with the West rather than Russia. (Laura Gozzi, “Turkey election: Kremlin rejects accusations of interference,” BBC News, 13 May 2023)

SERBIA
Protests against gun violence
On 12 May, in Belgrade, thousands of people marched through a bridge spanning the Sava River against gun violence. This is the second protest following the mass shooting on 03 and 04 May where 17 people died. Serbian President Aleksander Vucic accused the protesters of harassing fellow citizens by disrupting their movement. He added that no police will be involved unless there is violence. Protesters blamed the president for the division in the country which led to the mass shootings. (“Tens of thousands march in Belgrade after mass shootings,” The Guardian, 12 May 2023)

SPAIN
Police arrest 69 over bot scam targeted at asylum seekers
On 12 May, the Spanish police arrested 69 scammers from a criminal gang that hacked an online booking system for reselling free police appointments to asylum seekers and refugees in the country. According to the police, the gang has thus amassed about EUR 200 per appointment. In the raids, the police confiscated documents and found EUR 200,000 in cash. (Charlie Devereux, “Spanish police arrest 69 over bot scheme cashing in on asylum seekers,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

Brazilian boat seized for smuggling cocaine
On May 12, Spanish police seized a Brazilian fishing boat smuggling cocaine across the Atlantic to the Spanish islands off the northwestern coast of Africa. The police have arrested the crew of six people, including five Brazilians and a Venezuelan national. (Borja Suarez, “Spain seizes Brazilian fishing boat with cocaine haul on rough seas,” Reuters, 12 May 2023) 

TURKEY
Black Sea grain deal nears extension
On 12 May, according to Reuters, Turkey’s Defence minister Hulusi Akar said that the Black Sea grain pact is nearing an extension. In July 2022, the UN and Turkey brokered the pact with Ukraine and Russia amid a global food crisis. On 11 May, the parties to the pact discussed its extensions, while Russia announced that it would quit the pact on 18 May due to obstacles in its grain and fertilizers exports. (Mert Ozkan, “Turkey says Black Sea grain deal extension nearing,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

REGIONAL
Russia admits retreat at Bakhmut
On 12 May, Reuters reported Russia’s admittance of a fallback at Bakhmut. According to the spokesman of the east group of Ukrainian forces Serhiy Cherevatyi, 17.3 square kilometers of area have been liberated by them. Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that the Ukrainian offensive included 1000 troops with 40 ranks. He added that 26 attacks have been repelled by Russia. According to Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Ukrainian assumed higher ground at Bakhmut and the regrouping of Russian forces was a ‘rout.’ Prigozhin said that the Russian troops are collapsing at North and South Bakhmut. (Olena Harmash and Ivan Lyubush-Kirdey, “Russia acknowledges retreat north of Bakhmut, Wagner boss calls is a ‘rout’,” Reuters, 13 May 2023)

IAEA to present an agreement to protect Zaporizhzhia
On 12 May, Reuters reported IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is to present an agreement with Russia and Ukraine to the UNSC to protect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in May 2023. The Russian and Ukrainian army presence in the area has increased the apprehension of a nuclear catastrophe initiating this agreement. Both countries continue to blame each other for the shelling that obstructs the power lines vital for cooling nuclear reactors. It will include several "principles,” such as no firing from the plant, the barring of heavy weapons, and no military personnel. The ambiguity remains, and the position of both parties and “principles”  are yet to be clarified. (John Irish, Francois Murphy, “Exclusive: IAEA chief aims to present Zaporizhzhia deal to UN this month -diplomats,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
“Together we’re supporting Ukraine,” says Joe Biden
On 13 May, in Washington, US President Joe Biden met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Biden acknowledged US’s and Spain’s support to Ukraine while Sanchez blamed Russia for the war. Sanchez called the Russian President Vladimir Putin, an aggressor. Biden appreciated Spain’s migration management. (Jeff Mason and Arshad Mohammed, “Biden meets with Spain’s Sanchez, discusses Ukraine war,” Reuters, 13 May 2023)

“Moscow had never refused the diplomatic track,” says Vladimir Putin 
On 12 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin on a call with the South African President Cyril Ramphosa said that Russia has never refused a diplomatic track to end the conflict. Ramphosa offered to involve African leaders in the mediation process. The call was made at South Africa’s request. Putin also affirmed sending grains and fertilizers to South Africa for free. (“Putin,S.Africa’s Ramphosa discussed Ukraine in phone call-Kremlin,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

EU contemplates scaling back in relations with China
On May 12, EU ministers discussed scaling down its economic dependence on China. They aim to readjust the policy to place China as a political rival and economic competitor while partnering on global issues. Since its unexpected fallout in relations with Russia, the EU is struggling to recalibrate its relations with China. Lithuanian Foreign Minister said that the EU must prepare for the potential deterioration of its relations with China if conflict erupts over Taiwan. Borrell rescinded that the aim is not to de-couple but to rebalance the relationship. (Andrew Gray, “EU ministers back plan to reduce economic reliance on China;" Reuters, 12 May 2023; Sabine Siebold, “Lithuania says EU must prepare for risk of 'de-coupling' from China,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)


ALSO READ...

Marita Moloney, “Ukraine war: WFP chief Cindy McCain says grain deal with Russia needed to feed world
BBC News, 12 May 2023
“Ukraine is a major global exporter of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley, and more than half of the wheat grain procured by the WFP last year came from there. At the same time, the UN also agreed to help Moscow facilitate its own agricultural shipments. "They must renew the deal. We can't possibly be able to feed the region let alone the world unless they do," Ms McCain said.”

Burcu Karakas, “Erdogan’s opponents vow fresh start on Turkish human rights
Reuters, 12 May 2023
“With Erdogan facing his toughest year yet at the ballot box, rights advocates hope his defeat will draw a line under an era which they say has seen judicial independence eroded, freedom of speech curbed, and journalists and politicians jailed.”

Rachel Marsden, “Western European leaders reach peak dystopia on Victory Day
RT, 12 May 2023
“Von der Leyen then praised Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for rebranding May 9 as Europe Day, just like in the European Union where countries mark Victory Day on May 8, the date to which Zelensky also moved Victory Day this year. Suddenly, Victory Day in Ukraine wants to self-identify as Europe Day and it’s a done deal with the simple stroke of a pen.”


12 May 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #512

War in Ukraine: Day 442

UK delivers long range Strom Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine

Photo : AFP


War in Ukraine Day: 442
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 11 May, in an interview with Eurovision News and the BBC, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the spring counteroffensive. He stated that if Ukraine launched the offensive now, it would be successful, but it might result in more casualties. Therefore, Ukraine will wait for the delivery of armoured vehicles and weapon system from the West, until which the counteroffensive will be on hold. On the impact of sanctions on Russia, Zelenskyy highlighted that despite the sanction impact on Russia’s defence industry, it has manoeuvred to circumvent with help of other countries.

On 11 May, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko stated that Ukraine had received USD 16.7 billion in total as financial aid as of 2023. In a meeting with the G7 finance ministers and central bankers, he appreciated their efforts for the aid. He highlighted the current budget deficit of Ukraine to stand at USD 38 billion as of 2023 and demanded for USD 14 billion more assistance for reconstructing the energy sector and critical infrastructure.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 May, RT reported on Russia’s defence ministry statement on Ukraine’s counteroffensive. On the recent report on Ukraine counteroffensive already underway, the Ministry denied such claims and confirmed on certain breaches in the defence line but the ground situation was under control. It confirmed on the Ukrainian attacks in Bakhmut, Donetsk, Marynka, Kremennaya and Kupyansk, but according to the Ministry, all such were countered or defeated by the Russian forces.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 11 May, in its intelligent update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on the speeding up of the Russian military in recruiting prisoners for the war, totalling to 10,000 in April. It observed that prisoners comprised the major part of the Wagner group recruitment. This was mainly seen to avoid another round of mobilisation which earlier trigger domestic dissent.

On 10 May, Institute for Study of War, a US based think tank in its risk assessment reported on the challenges faced by Russian forces in Bakhmut. It found that due to continued shelling, it experienced limitations in combat capability to counter Ukraine’s counterattacks. According to the report: “Pervasive issues with Russian combat capability, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks.”

On 11 May, the UK government confirmed the delivery of “long-range Strom Shadow” cruise missiles to help Ukraine in the counteroffensive. The Strom Shadow is a jointly development system by France and the UK, with a range of 250 kilometres. Its operational range and striking capacity makes it distinct from other systems. The UK became the first to agree to send modern tanks to Ukraine followed by the US to send M-1 Abrams.

References
Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive,” BBC, 11 May 2023
Russian military clarifies frontline situation in Ukraine,” RT, 11 May 2023
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has begun – media,” RT, 11 May 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 11 May 2023.,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 11 May 2023
Jim Sciutto, “Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say,” CNN, 11 May 2023
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 10, 2023,” ISW, 10 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Counteroffensive needs time, Zelenskyy says,” Deutsche Welle, 10 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS 

NORTHERN IRELAND
DUP condemns Joe Biden over comments on Northern Ireland peace commitments
On 12 May, The Guardian reported that Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Member of Parliament Sammy Wilson criticized US President Joe Biden for his remarks about his recent visit to Northern Ireland, where Biden had expressed his intention to ensure that the UK keeps its Good Friday commitments. Wilson condemned Biden's comments, calling him "anti-British" and demanded that he show some respect to the UK. The DUP, which advocates Northern Ireland's inclusion in the UK, is boycotting the region's power-sharing government over disagreements on post-Brexit trade. The UK’s Prime Minister spokesperson defended the trade protocol and said that protecting the Good Friday agreement was the UK's priority. (“Unionists angry as Joe Biden says he visited Northern Ireland to ‘make sure the Brits didn’t screw around’,” The Guardian, 12 May 2023)
 
THE UK
Lawmakers to investigate rising food price inflation
On 12 May, Reuters reported that food price inflation is rising at alarming rates in the UK since the 1970s in 2023. This has prompted British lawmakers to launch a probe to analyze the country’s food supply chain to understand why the inflation is increasing in 2023. The cross-party Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (EFRA) Committee of the House of Commons said that it would examine how profits are shared from “farm to fork,” the level of regulation, and the impact of external actors on the supply chain. (James Davey, “With UK food price inflation at 46-year high, lawmakers launch probe,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)
 
TURKEY
Homeland Party’s presidential candidate withdraws
On 11 May, Homeland Party’s presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew his candidacy. The withdrawal of Ince is advantageous for the National Alliance coalition under Kemal Kilicdaroglu as Ince was a strong contender. According to Deutsche Welle, Kilicidraglu was leading in polls but was unable to cross the 50 per cent threshold to win the elections in the first round. Ince’s withdrawal could help Kilicidaroglu win in the first round. According to Metropoll, 49 per cent of Ince’s support will shift towards Kilicdaroglu while 22 per cent will shift towards Erdogan. (“Turkey election candidate drops out, putting Erdogan at risk,” Deutsche Welle, 11 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE
Wagner troops not facing munitions shortage, says Ukrainian military official
On 11 May, a Ukrainian brigade commander fighting in Bakhmut, in his interview with Reuters, said that Wagner troops are not facing any ammunition shortage and that they have stepped up shelling and artillery in recent days. This comes after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's public complaint to Moscow regarding the severe weapons shortage his group is facing and his threatening to withdraw his troops. He added that Russians continue to hold their positions despite counterattacks from the Ukrainian army. (Tom Balmforth and Alex Richardson, “In Bakhmut's ruins, Ukraine says intensity of Wagner attacks growing,” Reuters, 11 May 2023)
 
UK sends Storm Shadow, a long-range missile to Ukraine
On 11 May, The Guardian reported UK’s decision to send Storm Shadow missiles to Kyiv to enhance its much-anticipated counteroffensive that is going on. According to Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, this decision is “a calibrated and proportionate response” to the Russian invasion. These missiles will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces outside its sovereign territory. Some of the missiles are delivered while the rest are en route to Ukraine, told Wallace. The missile was developed by both the UK and France and has a range of about 560 kilometers. According to Politico, the missiles have the capability to strike eastern and southern Ukrainian regions under Russian occupation. The US is supportive of the UK's decision and has substantiated it. In a press briefing in Moscow, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov exhibited Moscow’s contrariety toward UK’s move and refrained from divulging the details. (Dan Sabbagh and Luke Harding, “UK sending long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, says defence minister,” The Guardian, 11 May 2023; Cristina Gallardo, “UK confirms it’s delivered long-range missiles to Ukraine,” Politico.eu, 11 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Moscow denies claims of Ukrainian breakthroughs in Bakhmut
On 11 May, in a statement, Russia’s Defence Ministry said that the reports circulating in individual Telegram channels about Ukrainian defence breakthroughs Bakhmut are not reality and claims that the overall situation in Ukraine is under control. According to Reuters, this statement reflects the Moscow’s acknowledgement that the ongoing conflict is a “very difficult” military operation. This is in contrast to the Ukrainian position that Russian forces are forced back in several places in Bakhmut. The several statements released by the Ukrainian army personnel and Zelenskiy show that it is preparing for an effective counter-offensive and is stepping up its attacks. (Tom Balmforth, Olena Harmash, Pavel Polityuk, David Ljunggren and Ron Popeski, "Russia denies reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs along front lines,” Reuters, 11 May 2023; Antoinette Radford, “Russia denies claims of Ukrainian front-line gain,” BBC News, 12 May 2023)
 
ECONOMY
UK can contribute EUR 15 billion by levying tax on the high-income class quotes The Guardian
On 12 May, according to Christian Aid, a charity fighting global poverty, a 0.5 per cent tax on wealthy people in the UK can contribute to its share of the international loss and damage fund, The Guardian reported. The international loss and damage fund was established at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt in 2022. According to The Guardian, to bolster adaptation efforts in developing countries an estimate of 400 billion dollars is needed by 2030. A tax of five pence for every EUR 10 collected from the top one per cent of UK households can raise 15 billion EUR by 2030, The Guardian quoted Christian Aid. The entire sum can be collected by levying a 95 per cent tax on fossil fuel companies’ excess profits or through air passenger taxes, emissions trading schemes, and financial transactions taxes. (Damien Gayle, “Wealth tax of 0.5% could cover UK’s share of loss and damage fund, says charity,” The Guardian, 12 May 2023)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
EU to establish AI rules
On 11 May, the Internal Market Committee and the Civil Liberties Committee of the EU voted in favour of the Artificial Intelligence Act draft. The AI Act was proposed in 2021. The act will mandate how AI products and services will be utilized. AI applications will be made transparent and accurate according to the four ranks of AI. The AI act doesn’t mention chatbots and generative AIs but according to Deutsche Welle, they will be considered as high-risk systems. Tools that predict where and who will commit crimes will be banned. Remote facial recognition tools will be used only to counter and prevent terrorist threats. The act will be presented next month in the European Parliament for adoption. The EU will be the first to establish AI rules. (“EU lawmakers take first steps toward tougher AI rules,” Deutsche Welle, 11 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU urge further talks to reinforce data transfer pact with US
On 11 May, EU urged the European Commission to continue negotiations to reinforce a proposed data transfer agreement with the United States. The EU executive had previously deemed U.S. safeguards against American intelligence activities to be strong enough to address EU data privacy concerns. However, the EU has stated that there are still shortcomings in the proposed agreement, and that elements such as judicial independence, transparency, access to justice, and remedies are missing. The resolution voted against the proposed pact is non-binding, and EU countries have yet to adopt an opinion before the executive makes a final decision. (Foo Yun Chee, “EU lawmakers want more talks to strengthen proposed US data transfer pact,” Reuters, 11 May 2023)


ALSO READ...

Hugo Bachega, Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive
BBC News, 11 May 2023
“Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his country needs more time to launch a much-anticipated counter-offensive against Russian forces, as the military awaits the delivery of promised aid.”

Hugh Pope, The battle of the Turkish centuries
Politico.eu, 11 May 2023
"Erdoğan’s Turkish Century — announced last year — continues this long-standing, implicit challenge to Atatürk’s imposition of Western ways and a narrow idea of Turkishness. And at home, this fuzzy neo-Ottoman culture has so far featured a museum, built outside the Byzantine walls, celebrating the 1453 conquest of Constantinople with startling realism; the reconsecration of Aya Sofya as a mosque; and a mentality that leans on state employees to attend Friday prayers as communal obligation."


11 May 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #511

War in Ukraine, Day 441: Putin’s Victory Day Speech, Three Takeaways

Renaming Kaliningrad infuriates Russia; Kremlin dismisses ICC charges against Putin and Lvova-Belova; UK slowing the deadline to retain EU laws

Photo : Kremlin.ru


EM DAILY FOCUS
Putin’s Victory Day Speech: Three Takeaways

By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

The Victory Day Speech is making headlines as Putin's assertiveness solidifies again despite the declining prowess of Russia in Ukraine. His eight-minute-long speech clearly shows that he does not regret going to war with Ukraine (Click here for the speech). He defends the invasion and hopes for victory. He often reflects on the past glory of the USSR and links the present with the war of 1941 to 1945 for defending his decisions and the ongoing conflict.
 
The following are the three takeaways.
1. Blame the West for the War in Ukraine:
Putin strongly condemns the Western narrative of maintaining superiority to perpetuate the Ukraine war. He asserts that the West kindles conflicts by pitting people and splitting societies. In the context of the Ukraine war, this statement blames the West for exacerbating the conflict through interventions. For him, the West spreads hate propaganda against Russia by spreading Russophobia and destroying Soviet war monuments and memorials. He adds that the West aims to cancel out the contributions of the Soviets by doing so. He accused the West of suppressing the people, especially the Ukrainians. He called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, "a hostage of the coup d'etat under the Western regime." Blaming the West and denying Russian aggression shows Putin's desperation to prove the righteousness of his decisions.

2. Revive the past glory of the USSR:
Throughout the speech, Putin glorifies the Great Patriotic War and the sacrifice of the then soldiers and leaders. He proclaims the legacy of the importance of having solidarity and partnership against a "common threat." He links the War of 1941 to 1945 to that of the ongoing war in Ukraine and gives a justification for it which shows his unwavering decision to fight despite an impending failure that could fall on Russia. This is also in line with the fact that he had to scale back the Victory Day celebrations in 23 regions which could mean that he is facing problems within the boundaries regarding the ongoing war.

3. Not war, but "special military operation":
Even after 439 days of war and both sides fighting and retaliating strongly Putin addresses this conflict as "special military operation." He uses this phrase thrice and admires the valour of the military men by denoting them as, "participants of special military operation." This shows his determination and clever interplay of words to justify his actions and this war to the Russian public and the world, especially the West. It can also be seen as a means to attract people to fight by infusing and invoking the nationalistic spirit to fight for the cause Russian cause in Ukraine.


War in Ukraine Day: 441
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 10 May, Ukraine Armed Forces confirmed the fleeing of a Russian military unit from the frontline of Bakhmut. In line with the earlier claim of the Wagner group leader, the Ukraine military claimed Russia’s 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade and “500 corpses” had left Bakhmut. Russia is yet to confirm the position of the Brigade.

On 10 May, in his daily address, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the intention to drive away the Russian forces using the West support who are inside Ukraine. He said: “We will not leave a single piece of our land to the enemy — tyranny will rule nowhere.” He also confirmed the ongoing preparation for post-war reconstruction economically, industrial, education and health care.

On 10 May, on the confusing claims over the effectiveness of the spring counteroffensive, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba claimed that Ukraine would not stop with one. He stated that it would launch more counteroffensives until it recaptures its territories. He reiterated the demand for more weapons from the West and proposed to Germany to convince the US to hand over F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 May, Russia’s Wagner group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed his concerns over the possibility of being circled in Bakhmut. He said: “In view of the lack of ammunition, the 'meat grinder' is now threatening to turn in the opposite direction.” Prigozhin warned over the threat of encirclement due to a break in the flanks.

On 10 May, RT reported on an attack on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline in the Bryansk region. Transneft oil company claimed the attacks, which confirmed the shelling in three empty fuel tanks. The pipeline is a key oil transport network connecting Russia with Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary and many EU countries. As per the report, Russia’s Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk, placed in the border with Ukraine, have experienced frequent attacks since the war.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 May, NATO military committee chairman reported that Russia was facing challenges due to “old military hardware.” According to the chairman, Russia was found to be using T-54 tanks from a 1954 design. This was due to the lack of focus as Russia prioritises quantity, large number of recruits and older material.

On 10 May, the EU member states discussed imposing sanctions on Russia. The discussion did not promise the immediate signing of the new set of sanctions. China and Iran’s companies are specifically expected to come under sanctions for helping Russia to escape sanctions.

On 10 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on Russia’s Victory Day parade. The report observed close to 8,000 personnel participating, including auxiliary, paramilitary, and cadets under training. According to the Ministry: “The make-up of Russia's annual Victory Day Parade in Red Square highlighted the materiel and strategic communications challenges the military is facing 15 months into the war in Ukraine.” From the parade, it stated how only vintage T-34 tank was displayed, while Russia could display other tanks despite the losses in Ukraine.

References
Zelensky vows to retake every piece of Ukrainian territory,” anews.com.tr, 11 May 2023
Ukraine unit says Russian brigade flees outskirts of Bakhmut,” Reuters, 10 May 2023
Tim Lister, Uliana Pavlova and Christian Edwards, “Wagner boss fumes that Russian brigade 'fled' from Bakhmut area,” Kake.com, 10 May 2023
Russian pipeline supplying oil to EU bombed by Kiev’s forces – Transneft,” RT, 10 May 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 May 2023.,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 10 May 2023
Ukraine updates: New claims that Russian units fled Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 10 May 2023
 


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS 

GEORGIA
In a contradictory stance, the President accuses Russia of 'provocation'
On May 10, RT reported Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili's displeasure with Russia's decision to abolish the flight ban and restore visa-free travel for Georgians and called it "another provocation," primarily because of Russia's war with Ukraine. Contradicting the President's pro-Ukrainian stance, the Foreign Minister welcomed the move, and the government has repeatedly refused to join Western sanctions and efforts by Kyiv to have a hostile approach towards Russia. Moscow placed a flight ban in the summer of 2019 as a response to a series of violent anti-Russian protests in Tbilisi, where a few demonstrators attempted to storm the parliament building, disrupt the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy (IAO), and insult its President Sergey Gavrilov, who was also the head of the Russian delegation. According to the new decree, Georgian citizens will require visas only if they plan to stay in Russia for more than three months to work or study. ("Georgian president accuses Russia of 'provocation'," RT, 10 May 2023)
 
PORTUGAL
Officials seek help from Brussels as a severe drought spreads
On 10 May, Reuters reported that the drought had spread almost across almost all of mainland Portugal during April, quoting the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). The officials sought help from the EU as the drought continues to threaten the farming sector, water reservoirs, and the country at large. According to the agency, April 2023 was the third-driest and fourth-warmest in the last 92 years in mainland Portugal, as 90 per cent of its territory is suffering from extreme drought, with the northeast and southern regions badly hit. It is predicted that the dry weather could continue for some time. (Patricia Vincente Rua, "Severe drought spreads in Portugal, officials seek EU help," Reuters,10 May 2023)
 
POLAND
Recommendation to rename Kaliningrad infuriates Russia
On 09 May, Poland's Committee on Standardisation of Geographical Names Outside the Republic of Poland suggested renaming Kaliningrad into Królewiec and the wider area of the exclave as Obwód Królewiecki in Poland. Kaliningrad is the strategically important exclave between Poland and Lithuania that houses the Russian Baltic Fleet and its only ice-free European ports. According to the committee, the decision to discard the use of the "imposed name" is partly a result of Russia's Ukrainian invasion and its finding that Kaliningrad is unrelated to either the city or the region that instigated "emotional and negative" resonance in Poland. Kremlin has reacted furiously and called the decision "bordering on madness and "a hostile act," says BBC News. The committee's recommendation is not binding, but the committee expects the country to follow the decision. Poland's foreign ministry is positive about the name change. (Adam Easton and Tom Spender, "Kaliningrad: Russia fury as Poland body recommends renaming exclave," BBC News,10 May 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Kremlin Spokesman dismisses ICC charges against Putin and Lvova-Belova
On 10 May, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the International Criminal Court's charges against Russian President Vladimir Putin and children's rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, by responding: "The International Criminal Court is a puppet of the collective West and Russia finds it hard to imagine any country would dare enforce its writ against a sovereign nuclear power". Peskov also noted that Russia is a large nuclear power and it's unlikely anyone would act on the warrant against Putin. He criticized the ICC for targeting Bosnian Serbs in the past and stated: "Russia does not recognize the court." The ICC accused Putin and Lvova-Belova of overseeing the "unlawful transfer" of children from occupied areas of Ukraine, which Russia denies. ("Kremlin not worried about ICC warrant for Putin – spokesman," RT News, 10 May 2023)
 
Kremlin spokesman blames the West for Ukraine conflict
On 10 May, Russia's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated: "The West forced Russia to launch its military operation in Ukraine by expanding NATO, engaging in deception, and refusing to treat Moscow as an equal partner." He further added that the US, EU, and NATO indirectly joined the conflict by supporting Ukraine. Peskov reminded that the West organized the 2014 coup in Ukraine and turned a blind eye to Kyiv's aggression against its own people. ("West only interested in 'talking down’ to Russia – Kremlin,” RT News, 11 May 2023)
 
SERBIA
Nearly, 3000 guns surrendered in an amnesty
On 10 May, Serbian President Aleksander Vucic said that 3000 illegal weapons were surrendered in the first two days of the gun amnesty, which began on 08 May. Under the amnesty, people can surrender legal and illegal weapons, ammunition and ordnance without any questions asked. The amnesty comes following the shooting by a 13-year-old boy who killed nine people and the mass shootings by a man in two villages which killed 14 people. Vucic said additional checks of registered gun owners and shooting ranges will be carried out. The stationing of police outside schools and longer jail terms for illegal possession of weapons will be established. (Aleksander Vasovic, “Serbians surrender over 3000 pieces of weapons after mass shootings,” Reuters, 11 May 2023)
 
TURKEY
High voter turnout in Germany
On 27 April, overseas voting began for the presidential elections. On 10 May, overseas ballots were flown back to Turkey. The overseas ballot was introduced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2014. Turks in Germany turn out in record high numbers to cast vote in the presidential elections. According to the Turkish ambassador to Germany Basar Sen’s interview with BR24, over 50 per cent have voted, four per cent higher than in the 2018 elections. According to the Republican People’s Party’s Chairman of the Berlin branch, there was a 25 per cent increase in voter turnout in Berlin. (Gabriel Rinaldi and Peter Wilke, “Record number of Turks vote in Germany in ‘fateful election’ for Erdogan,” Politico.eu, 10 May 2023)
 
THE UK
Government slows the deadline to retain EU laws
On 10 May, the UK government disposed of the December 2023 deadline to replace or remove EU laws. Businesses have complained that the process causes regulatory problems. Conservative Party MPs and the members of the House of Lords called out for an extended timetable for the Retained EU Law Bill. The bill contained a ‘sunset clause’ put forth by former Business Secretary Jacob Ress-Mogg which was supposed to remove EU laws not reviewed by the government. Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch had amended the bill and only some laws will be put under the sunset clause. According to Badenoch’s interview with Telegraph, a slowed timetable will prevent the civil service from choosing laws that have to be preserved by the deadline but to reform the laws. (Stefan Boscia, “UK ditches deadline for Brexit bonfire of EU laws after business backlash,” Politico.eu, 10 May 2023)
 
Pro-Brexit areas swing towards the Labour Party in municipal elections
On 04 May, municipal elections were held across the UK in which the Labour Party won in pro-Brexit areas in Ramsgate Harbour in the Thanet council. The region was the UK Independent Party (UKIP) and its successor, Brexit Party and later, the Conservatives’ heartland. The people who voted for ‘leave’ in Brexit are now supporting the Labour Party. The support for the party has grown 14 per cent compared to 2019. According to The Economist, middle-class emigres who arrived in Ramsgate during the pandemic support the Labour Party. The UKIP councillors have lost in all the councils, Reform UK won six councils showing the Tories’ support but the swing towards the Labour Party shows otherwise. (“Labour makes striking gains in the heartland of Brexit,” The Economist, 11 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE
Russian forces pull back in Bakhmut after Ukrainian counterattacks
On 10 May, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces said that the Russian troops had fallen back in some regions in the eastern Donetsk region, up to a mile near Bakhmut, after limited counterattacks by Kyiv. He added that the enemy could not withstand the onslaught of Ukrainian defenders, which forced them to retreat. Russian troops have been battling since the summer of 2022 to capture Bakhmut, but to no avail so far, and it is one of the most devastated regions. This follows Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin’s public complaint to Moscow about the lack of resources to hold positions in Ukraine and his threat to withdraw his forces from the city. (“Ukraine Says Russian Forces Pulling Back After Bakhmut Attacks,” The Moscow Times,10 May 2023)

US transfer millions seized from the Russian Oligarch to rebuild Ukraine
On 10 May, the Justice Department announced that it would transfer USD 5.4 million seized from Russian tycoon Konstantin Malofeyev to fund rebuilding Ukraine. According to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the funds will be used to remediate the harms of Russia’s unjust war in Ukraine. The US said Malofeyev, who built his fortune in banking, telecommunications, and media, was the main source of funding for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. He was indicted in April 2022 for violating sanctions related to the Russian-backed secession war in Donbas and the subsequent Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014. (“US Sets $5.4Mln Seized from Russian Oligarch for Ukraine Reconstruction,” The Moscow Times,10 May 2023)
 
“I want everybody to stop dying,” says Trump to CNN on the Ukrainian war
On 10 May, Trump told CNN that he don’t want to side with either side of the conflict but to settle the conflict, quoted BCC. He said that winning or losing in Ukraine doesn’t matter as far as nobody dies. Trump stressed that the Ukrainian war wouldn’t have occurred if he were the President and that if he gets elected he will negotiate a settlement in 24 hours. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a mistake but he is not a war criminal. According to BCC, Republicans resent the US’s support to the Ukrainian war and if ascending the presidency for the second time Trump will alter US’s policy towards Ukraine. (Anthony Zurcher, “Trump talks Ukraine and pardoning Capitol rioters in CNN townhall”, BCC News, 11 May 2023)


Also Read...
Andrey Pertsev, For Ambitious Russian Officials, the War Has Failed to Become a Career Elevator
The Moscow Times, 10 May 2023
“For all the talk within the Kremlin of a career elevator, in reality, the federal government has very little to offer to regional executives. Prestigious positions inside Russia are already occupied by people whom the Kremlin needs, and there is nothing to offer them instead.”
 
Suzanne Lynch, Why the EU loves Erdoğan
Politico, 11 May 2023
“With the autocratic leader in charge, the bloc doesn’t have to wrestle with the possibility of Turkey joining its ranks.”


10 May 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #510

War in Ukraine: Day 440

Putin's Victory Day Speech

Photo : Vladimir Astapkovich, RIA Novosti


War in Ukraine Day: 440
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 09 May, the head of Ukraine's military administration, Serhiy Popko, reported that 23 out of the 25 cruise missiles launched by Russia had been successfully intercepted. The missiles were observed to have launched across Ukraine, especially towards Kyiv.

On 08 May, the UN stated that close to 30 million metric tons of food grain had been exported from Ukraine under the negotiated deal. This includes 600,000 metric tons of grain sent through WFP ships as part of their operations in “Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Yemen.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 09 May, in the Victory Day speech, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia’s future would depend on the forces fighting in Ukraine. Referring back to the Soviet Union period, Putin stated how the West aims to destroy Russia, break from international law and “strangle sovereign centres.” He pointed out how Ukraine had become a bait for the West to carry out its plans. Putin called for solidarity among the CIS and partnership to fight the “common threat.” Lastly, he appreciated the soldiers participating in the special military operation.

On 09 May, the Wagner group head, claimed on one of the Russian military flank to have fled from the frontlines in Bakhmut. He criticised the Russian defence ministry for “Scheming all the time,” and accused the Russian commanders for giving such orders. He added: “Soldiers should not die because of the absolute stupidity of their leadership.”

On 09 May, Russia’s forces claimed to target down Ukraine army’s reserved and ammunition depots through precision-guided weapon systems. Russian defense ministry claimed on preventing Ukraine's advance in the combat operation zone due to the strikes.

On 09 May, Russia’s temporary charge d'affaires to Japan claimed over fragile relation between Japan and Russia in bilateral cooperation due to Ukraine war. According to the spokesperson, Japan was found to be restricting exports of “wide range of goods” to Russia, reducing by 41 per cent as of March 2023.
On 09 May, in the Victory Day speech, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia’s future would depend on the forces fighting in Ukraine. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 09 May, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during his address in the parliament, called for the EU member states to engage its defence industries faster. He said: “Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown us how essential this realization is.”

On 09 May, on the occasion of Europe Day, which commemorates peace and unity, Kyiv received Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission.. She welcomed Ukraine’s move to make 09 May as the “Day of Europe.” Ukraine changed its commemoration from May 8th to May 9th after World War II, following the lead of other European countries. This was done to distinguish their celebration from Russia's focus on victory.

On 09 May, the US announced a new set of military aid worth USD 1.2 billion focusing on upgrading air defences and artillery ammunition of Ukraine. According to Pentagon, the package will include weapon systems that provide “critical near-term capabilities, counter-drone system ammunition, commercial satellite imagery service,” and arm the Ukraine forces to defence against Russian aggression. This will be carried out using the help of defence industries and partners of the US than using its own provision. 

On 09 May, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock after the meeting with China’s Foreign Minister stated the need to deter Russia’s defence companies from getting access to war related goods. She said: “..sanctioned dual-use goods don't fall into the wrong hands.” In response to the allegations of China providing material and political support to Russia, Baerbock stated EU’s plans to sanction China’s companies. China’s Foreign Minister objected the move of individual sanction on China’s companies.

References
Antoinette Radford and George Wright, “Ukraine says it downed Russian cruise missiles aimed at Kyiv,” BBC, 09 May 2023
Russian forces strike Ukrainian army reserves, ammo depots by precision weapons,” TASS, 09 May 2023
Japan’s position on Ukraine leading to downturn in trade with Russia — diplomat,” TASS, 09 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Wagner boss says Russian army fled Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2023
Ukraine: Von der Leyen visits Kyiv to mark Europe Day,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2023
Brigadier General Pat Ryder, “Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds a Press Briefing,” defense.gov, 09 May 2023
 


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS 

GERMANY
Debate for funding refugees underway
On 09 May, Deutsche Welle reported a debate in Germany between the federal and the state governments on increasing financial support for asylum seekers and refugees. This year alone, Germany reported a 78 per cent increase in the influx of asylum seekers as the war in Ukraine persists. Finance Minister Christian Linder calculated that the federal government contributed EUR 29.84 billion last year (2022), and EUR 26.65 billion has been earmarked for this year. It is also paying EUR five billion in social benefits for people who have fled from other countries. The 16 states demand that the federal government increase its contributions as the number of refugees increases, which has decreased in recent years. The federal government does not appear keen on increasing funds; rather, it wants the state governments to take the initiative, as they receive huge shares of federal tax, and some of them have surpluses. The government is also planning to reduce the number of incoming refugees. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has suggested pushing refugees back to Moldova and Georgia by declaring them safe countries of origin. (Olive Pieper, “Germany debates funding for refugees,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2023)
 
ITALY
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni aims to reform the constitution
On 09 May, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commenced meetings to reform the constitution to bring political stability. The 1948 Italian constitution was made to prevent dictators like Benito Mussolini from acquiring power, but this has led to coalitions. Meloni aims to adopt a presidential system. She assured that reforms would be made regardless of the unanimous consensus from the opposition, the 5-Star Movement. Post the talks, opposition leader and former Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte said that a common position has not been reached regarding the reforms. (Angelo Amante, “Meloni open talks on constitutional reform, long a mirage in Italy,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Wagner's Prigozhin accuses Russian army unit of fleeing Bakhmut
On 09 May, in a video, Russia's Wagner group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused a military unit of fleeing positions near Bakhmut in Ukraine, claiming the government was incapable of defending the country. Prigozhin released scathing videos attacking Russia's military leadership, questioning the Kremlin's ability to defend the country as Ukraine prepares for a spring offensive. He also threatened to pull his fighters out of Bakhmut if he did not receive ammunition. (“Wagner's Prigozhin says Russian army unit fled Bakhmut,” Le Monde, 09 May 2023)
 
Putin justifies invasion of Ukraine by praising soldiers
On 09 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed troops fighting in Ukraine during Moscow's Victory Day parade. He justified his invasion of Ukraine and accused "Western globalist elites" of provoking conflicts. Putin said Russia's future rests on soldiers fighting in Ukraine, calling it a "real war" unleashed against Russia. The parade had 3,000 fewer soldiers and less military hardware. The EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said: “Russia had "dramatically failed" in the war,” during a  news conference in Kyiv, whereas German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged support for Ukraine. (George Wright, “Russia's future rests on Ukraine war, Putin tells Victory Day parade,” BBC News, 09 May 2023)
 
Prigozhin’s cryptic comment risks angering Kremlin over lack of ammunition in Ukraine
On 09 May, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio, referred to a figure he called "a happy Grandfather" who believed all was well with the military campaign, but failed to supply enough ammunition for his Wagner fighters in eastern Ukraine. The identity of the "Grandfather" was unclear. Analysts suggest that Prigozhin's recent volatile outbursts may be an attempt to deflect blame for lack of swift battlefield success. (Andrew Osborn, “Mercenary chief makes cryptic but profane remark about Russian war leadership,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
 
Russian Ambassador calls for US to build respectful relations
On 10 May, TASS reported Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov stating: “The US administration must establish mutually respectful and pragmatic relations with Russia.” During a reception dedicated to Victory Day, Antonov reminded the US of the brotherhood of arms with the Soviet Union during World War II, and expressed hope for a change in Washington's hostile policies towards Moscow. (“US should build relations with Russia on mutual respect, says Russian ambassador,” TASS, 10 May 2023)
 
SWITZERLAND
UBS announces leadership team for Credit Suisse takeover and plans for business evaluation
On 09 May, the UBS Group announced that CEO of Credit Suisse, Ulrich Koerner, will stay on as part of the new leadership team of the combined group after the takeover. The current finance chief of UBS’s core wealth management business, Todd Tuckner, will become the group's new chief financial officer, succeeding Sarah Youngwood, who will step down after the deal closes. Koerner will be responsible for Credit Suisse's operational continuity and client focus while supporting its integration. UBS will evaluate all options for Credit Suisse's Swiss business, including a sale or IPO of Credit Suisse's domestic unit, and will make a decision by the end of the summer. Following the legal closing of the transaction, UBS will manage two separate parent companies throughout the integration process. The bank expects the process to take three to four years. (Oliver Hirt and Tomasz Janowski, “UBS replaces CFO, keeps Credit Suisse's Koerner in top team,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
 
Military holds the largest drill in three decades
On 09 May, according to Reuters, Switzerland held one of the largest military drills called the LUX 23 which involved 4000 troops across four cantons over nine days. On 04 May, Swiss infantry soldiers were found taking part in an exercise at Les Pradieres shooting range with live ammunition and grenades. The LUX 23 drills have been planned since 2021. The timing of the drill has aligned with the Ukrainian war where the political factions think that this will infringe their neutrality. Also, pressure on Bern is growing to end its ban on exports of weapons to the war zones. The drill ensures Switzerland’s armed neutrality while establishing its role in the European defence. (Gabrielle Tetrault-Farber and Denis Balibouse, “Switzerland holds military drills, its role in European defence in focus,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
 
TURKEY
Reuters interviews Antakya locals: Support for Erdogan rises
On 09 May, Reuters interviewed the locals in Antakya and earthquake-hit regions in Southern Turkey, which is Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan's stronghold. Despite the slow response of the government to the earthquake, locals show support for Erdogan. According to Metropoll, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) support levels were 33 per cent during February 2023, but in April 2023 it was 40 per cent. The locals are confident that Erdogan will rebuild quake-hit areas as promised. According to MAK’s (Mak Survey and Consultancy) polls, Erdogan has 45.4 per cent support and the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaraglu has over 50 per cent support. The survey shows that Kilicdaroglu is favourable to winning the first round of elections. According to Seda Demiralp, international relations chair at Isik University, the earthquake will have a minimal impact on the elections unlike an economic crisis, and hence support for Erdogan is significantly rising. (Daren Butler and Bulent Usta, “Erdogan again? Amid rubble of Turkey’s quake, voters demand to be heard,” Reuters, 10 May 2023)
 
THE UK
Second-time strike of ambulance staff to put further pressure on the government and NHS
On 09 May, a second-time strike erupted in the southeast of England as ambulance staff employed by two ambulance trusts rejected the government’s pay offer of a lump sum cash payment for 2022 to 2023 and a below-inflation increase of five per cent for 2023 to 2024. They are part of the Unite trade Union, and its general secretary, Sharon Graham, said that the aim of this strike is to exert greater pressure on the government to reopen negotiations and make a proper wage offer to the NHS workers. Unite is one of the unions that failed to back the deal, and this strike is happening despite the NHS staff council, covering the other 12 unions that voted to accept the pay deal. (Rachel Hall, “NHS disruption warning as ambulance staff strike in south-east England,” The Guardian, 09 May 2023)
 
Implications of Liz Truss's upcoming visit to Taiwan next week
On 09 May, The Guardian reported Liz Truss’s upcoming visit to Taiwan next week. She is expected to deliver a speech at an event organized by the think tank Prospect Foundation. The Foundation said the title of the speech would be, “Taiwan: on the frontline of freedom and democracy.” According to The Guardian, this could potentially upset the UK’s careful approach to China relations. Truss said that she is looking forward to showing solidarity with the Taiwanese people against the increasingly aggressive behaviour from Beijing. This follows the uproar and strong opposition from Beijing following Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 and Truss' recent speeches on China in Tokyo and Washington, DC. She is also expected to meet other senior members of the Taiwanese government. The UK Foreign Office is aware of the meeting, and a spokesperson stated that they would not interfere with the travel plans of a private citizen who is not a member of the government. (Benn Quinn, Kiran Stacey, and Helen Davidson, “Liz Truss to visit Taiwan and give speech that could upset UK’s China strategy,” The Guardian, 09 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE
UN Secretary-General says peace talks not possible in Ukraine Conflict
On 09 May, in an interview published by Spanish daily El Pais, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “Peace talks to end the Ukraine conflict were "not possible" at present due to both parties' belief that they can win.” This came as Russian and Ukrainian leaders called for victory in WWII commemorations. He hoped to bring them to the negotiating table in the future. (“UN Chief Says Ukraine Peace Talks 'Not Possible' Right Now,” The Moscow Times, 09 May 2023)
 
European countries seek missile suppliers for Ukraine
On 09 May, Reuters reported that  European countries led by the UK have invited companies to express their interest in supplying missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers to Ukraine. The International Fund for Ukraine, which includes Britain, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden, was established to provide weapons to Kyiv. The British Ministry of Defence, which oversees the fund, called for companies that could supply missiles launched from land, air, or sea, with a payload of between 20 and 490kg. The procurement notice also called for a low probability of intercept and air defence penetration methods. The response is expected to come before 05 June 2023. (Andrew Macaskill and Tom Balmforth, “Britain asks companies to supply long-range missiles for Ukraine,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
 
US and UK urge Russia to stop using hunger as a weapon in Ukraine conflict
On 09 May, The Guardian reported that the US and UK have called on Russia to stop using hunger as a weapon in the Ukraine conflict and to resume the Black Sea grain deal. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and UK’s Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, James Cleverly urged Russia to allow ships to pick up grain from Ukrainian ports, saying that blocking them results in less food reaching global markets and people in need. The UK Prime Minister will visit the US in June to host the Ukraine rebuilding conference to address post-conflict recovery. (Harry Taylor, Tom Ambrose and Hellen Sullivan, “US and UK tell Russia to stop using hunger as leverage in Ukraine conflict – as it happened,” The Guardian, 09 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
New EU sanctions to target entities across the world, reports RT quoting Bloomberg and The Financial Times
On 09 May, RT reported that the EU’s 11th round of sanctions will target companies that supply goods and technology to Russia’s defence and security sector, quoting Bloomberg. 35 Companies in China and Hong Kong, and firms in Uzbekistan, Armenia, and the UAE are likely to be targeted. According to the Financial Times, 3HC semiconductors and King-Pai technology from China and Sinno Electronics, Sigma Technology, Asia Pacific Links, Tordan Industry, and Alpha Trading Investments from Hong Kong are expected to be sanctioned. The 11th round of the sanctions list also includes already sanctioned Iranian companies that supply drones to Russia and more than 100 Russian companies. The 11th round of sanctions will be discussed today at the (“EU to take anti-Russia sanctions global - media,” RT, 09 May 2023)
 
CYBER
EU Lawmakers concerned about misuse of Pegasus Spyware in Hungary and Poland
On 09 May, AP News reported that lawmakers in the EU have expressed grave concerns over the use of the Pegasus spyware against opposition politicians and journalists in Hungary and Poland. The spyware, developed by Israeli cyber-intelligence company NSO, has been used globally to infiltrate the phones and computers of political figures, human rights activists, reporters, and religious leaders. However, after a year-long investigation, the lawmakers reported a lack of cooperation, preventing them from uncovering concrete evidence. Dutch Liberal lawmaker Sophie In‘t Veld, who co-led the inquiry, stated that none of the authorities were willing to cooperate. In their final report, the lawmakers accused Poland's right-wing government of using Pegasus as part of a broader campaign to stifle dissent, while Hungary's use of spyware was deemed a strategic campaign to suppress media freedom and freedom of expression. The lawmakers sent questionnaires to all 27 EU member countries but received very few relevant responses. The abuse of spyware was found to have no connection with national security, and justice has yet to be served to victims of spying. NSO has faced export restrictions and legal action from major technology firms. (Lorne Cook, “EU lawmakers warn of Hungary, Poland spyware abuses,” AP News, 09 May 2023)
 
GENDER
Turkish women are less likely to vote for President Tayyip Recep Erdogan
On 10 May, Politico reported that women are less likely to vote for Erdogan in the upcoming presidential elections due to his Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) coalitions. AKP’s alliance with the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish HUDA-PAR jeopardizes his win. The New Welfare Party’s buses show only pictures of the male candidates, while women are sidelined as dark silhouettes. HUDA-PAR is known for its criminal activities such as murder and torture, and is an extension of Kurdish Hizbullah. These parties demand to criminalize adultery, cancel laws on violence against women, restrict their mobility, and change women’s eligibility age to marry. Within the party, female candidates such as Ozlem Zengin say that these demands have crossed the red line. 10 million women are to vote this Sunday. Resentment towards Erdogan and his coalitions is rising as women see the coalition parties as a threat to their independence. (Elcin Poyrazlar, “Turkey’s Erdogan risks alienating conservative women voters,” Politico.eu, 10 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Qin Gang says Beijing will maintain communication for ceasefire in Ukraine
On 09 May, during a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock  at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang stated: “China would continue to communicate with all parties involved in the Ukrainian war, including Germany, to achieve a ceasefire.” European countries have criticized China for not acknowledging Russia's invasion of Ukraine or supporting Ukraine's sovereignty. Beijing has dismissed Western concerns about arming Russia for the conflict, calling it a "special military operation" against security threats. Germany has been reevaluating its relationship with China, its largest trading partner, in light of growing strategic tensions. Baerbock called on China to explicitly support Ukraine's territorial integrity and stated that China could play a crucial role in ending the war if it chose to do so. The two officials also discussed the European Union's proposed sanctions against Russia and companies involved in bypassing them. (Alexander Ratz and Friederike Heine, “China says it's in touch with all parties in seeking Ukraine ceasefire,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
 
Russia protesting to Poland as it prevented Russians from laying flowers on Victory Day
On 09 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Polish authorities of failing to prevent the "provocative actions of the protesters", which disrupted the commemoration and violated the country's obligations. The Ministry called it an "affront" to the memory of over 600,000 Soviet soldiers who liberated Poland from the Nazis. The statement said: “The incident highlighted the "duplicity of Warsaw's policy" in evaluating WWII events,” adding that Russia would respond accordingly. Russia will lodge a formal protest to Poland over the actions of a crowd that prevented Russian diplomats from laying flowers at a Soviet military cemetery in Warsaw on 09 May. (“Russia to protest to Poland over provocation against Russian diplomats on May 9 - MFA,” TASS, 09 May 2023)
 
Turkish election leaves uncertainty for Greece and East Mediterranean relations
On 09 May, Politico reported that Greek-Turkish relations remain tense regardless of who wins the Turkish election, according to analysts. Greek hopes for a change of backlashes from a potential Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu government are unlikely to be met, since Ankara's strategic "red lines" are seen as inflexible, with both the ruling and opposition parties committed to the "blue homeland" policy, which aims to project Turkish naval supremacy in the Eastern Mediterranean. The two countries are also unlikely to diverge greatly on their approach to Cyprus. While opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu may prove a more diplomatic partner, he is not expected to offer substantive changes to Turkey's policies on energy resources in the East Mediterranean, Cyprus, and marine boundaries. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Turkey’s election gives Greece a migraine,” Politico.eu, 09 May 2023)


Also Read...

Nigel Hunt, Explainer: Why the EU is restricting grain imports from Ukraine
Reuters, 9 May 2023
“The European Commission has announced restrictions on the imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria until June 5. The move led to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria lifting unilateral import bans they had imposed citing the need to protect their farmers. Romania had not banned imports.”

Rachel Marsden, The West risks creating a ‘Snow ISIS’ in Europe with extremists going to fight in Ukraine
RT, 08 May 2023
“The West risks creating an international terrorist Disneyland in Ukraine like it did in Syria. Back in 2018, French intelligence services worried about the return of French jihadists from Syria and the impact of returning fighters on French and European domestic security. Do they have the same fears about returning fighters from Ukraine?” 

Timur Fomenko, What can China do in response to NATO’s foray into Asia?
RT, 08 May 2023
“So what can China do to respond to this attempt at ‘alliance encirclement’ against it? First, it can strengthen its ties with Russia and aim to create a deeper balance of power in the Asia-Pacific. Secondly, it can revitalize old alliances and strengthen its ties with North Korea as a military partner. After all, the DPRK is still obligated by the 1961 treaty of mutual assistance to come to China’s aid in a war and can be used to contain Japan and South Korea. Thirdly, it can look to build new military partnerships with regional countries who feel similarly threatened by US expansionism.”

Jade McGlynn, The Great Patriotic Special Military Operation
The Moscow Times, 8 May 2023
“But the Great Patriotic War is not just a constitutive part of Russian identity — it is also a constitutive part of mainstream Russian depictions of its nine-year war on Ukraine. Pro-war Russians conflate Ukrainian identity with treachery, extreme nationalism and Nazi collaborationism — and present themselves as reliving the feats of their Red Army ancestors by liberating Ukrainians from Nazi tyranny.”


09 May 2023 | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #439

War in Ukraine: Day 439

Europe's defence modernisation process slows; Russia launches drone and missile strikes; Russian jet intercepts Polish patrol

Photo : Reuters/Gleb Garanich


War in Ukraine: Day 439
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 08 May, Ukraine’s Commander of ground forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on the increasing tensions in Bakhmut. Assuring to take all efforts to prevent the capture, he stated that Russia plans to take over the city by 09 May. Owing to this, it is observed to be shelling heavily with more weapons and forces. According to the report in Deutsche Welle, Russia sees Bakhmut as a strategic point to capture subsequent cities of Ukraine.

On 08 May, Deutsche Welle reported on the rapid evacuation of people from the Zaporizhzhia area. As per the report, 1,679 people, along with children, were moved away from the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia. The move comes after a warning was issued over Ukraine’s counteroffensive and a radiation leak threat.

On 08 May, a Ukraine Armed Forces spokesperson claimed over the destruction of 35 Shahed drones that were targeted across Ukraine. Russia was also reported to have launched 16 missiles in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa districts causing minimum casualty. Apart from this, explosions were also observed in the southeast of Zaporizhzhia.  

The Moscow View
On 08 May, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed the receiving of ammunition from Russia. He claimed on a fierce battle with Ukraine forces in the controlled areas.

On 08 May, RT reported on the agenda of the Victory Day celebrations. Presidents and Prime Ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are expected to attend. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is expected to join, followed by the military parade and his speech. The Victory Day, which marks the traditional military parade, is expected to showcase the units engaged in the special military operation in Ukraine.

The West View
On 08 May, a European Commission spokesperson announced the visit of President Ursula von der Leyen to Kyiv. The agenda is expected to establish ways to improve relations with Ukraine.

On 08 May, Ukrinform reported on Canada’s Prime Minister conversation with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on continuing the support to Ukraine. According to the report, the discussion focused on ways to secure Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and growing concern due to Russian action in the global south.

On 08 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on the Russian military’s efforts to recruit “Asian migrant workers” to fight against Ukraine. It found that the immigration officers who spoke Tajik and Uzbek had been trying continuously to recruit migrants with an offer of a USD 2,390 bonus along with salary. In the report: “Radio Free Europe reported recruiters offering sign-up bonuses of USD $2,390 and salaries of up to USD $4,160 a month. Migrants have also been offered a fast-track Russian citizenship path of six months to one year, instead of the usual five years. It expects such migrant workers to be sent to the frontlines. Such recruitment is viewed as way to keep the “domestic dissent” as low as possible.  

References
Head of Russia's Wagner group says still no sign of promised ammunition,” Reuters, 09 May 2023
Ukraine military says all 35 drones Russia launched overnight destroyed,” Reuters, 08 May 2023
Multiple foreign leaders to attend Victory Parade in Moscow,” RT News, 08 May 2023
Trudeau, Sunak discuss support for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 08 May 2023
The world in brief,” The Economist, 09 May 2023
EU's von der Leyen to visit Kyiv on Tuesday,” Le Monde, 08 May 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 8 May 2023.,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 08 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia launches new wave of air strikes,” Deutsche Welle, 08 May 2023
 


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree R B and Sreeja J S 

POLAND
Russian jet intercepts Polish patrol over Black Sea
On 05 May, a Russian jet intercepted a Polish aircraft that was patrolling over the Black Sea for the EU border protection agency Frontex, according to the Poland Border Guard. The border authority released a statement saying that the Russian Su-35 made three attempts towards the Polish Turbolet L-410 at close aerial proximity The resultant turbulence caused the crew of five Polish border guards to lose control of the plane and lose altitude. It was Romania's Ministry of National Defence that first reported the incident and the following day it condemned the aggressive and dangerous behaviour of the Russian Plane and added that it was totally unacceptable. The Ministry also said that this incident gives further evidence to the proactive approach of Russia in the Black Sea. (“Poland Border Guard says patrol intercepted by Russian Jet,” Deutsche Welle, 07 May 2023)

SERBIA
Protests against gun violence in Belgrade
On 09 May, BBC News reported on Belgrade’s protest against gun violence where tens of thousands of Serbs joined. The protesters demanded the resignation of top government officials including the Interior Minister and the head of Serbia’s intelligence agency. The protests followed last week’s shootings  where 17 people killed including eight school children. The Education Minister Branko Ruzic resigned on 07 May following the protests. On 08 May, Serbian President Aleksander Vucic announced an amnesty for 30 days for the public to surrender illegal weapons without any questions asked. The Serbian police reported that 1500 guns were surrendered on the first day. (Antoinette Radford, “Serbia shootings: Tens of thousands join protests,” BBC News, 09 May 2023)

UK
Police release the anti-monarchist after the coronation
On 07 May, Deutsche Welle reported that UK’s anti-monarchy group Republic's leader, Graham Smith, who was recently detained by the police ahead of King Charles III's coronation, was released recently. The police believed the activists would try to disrupt the procession, while Smith denied any plans to sabotage the event. The UK government had passed new powers to crack down on direct action groups, allowing the police to detain protesters.  (“UK anti-monarchists released from custody after coronation,” Deutsche Welle, 07 May 2023)

UKRAINE
Russia launches a fresh wave of drone and missile strikes before Victory Day
On 08 May, Russia launched a fresh wave of drone and missile strikes. It marks the fourth attack in eight days on Kyiv. It comes just before Russia celebrates Victory Day, a major public holiday commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. The latest Russian raids lasted more than four hours, and witnessed Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones swarm across the country. Elsewhere, in the Black Sea port city of Odessa, a warehouse with humanitarian aid was destroyed, and a security guard's body was pulled from the wreckage. (Pavel Polityuk and Gleb Garanich, “Russia launches new attack on Ukraine's capital, officials say,” Reuters, 09 May 2023; Matt Murphy and Jaroslav Lukiv, “Ukraine war: Russia launches 'biggest' kamikaze drone attack,” BBC News, 09 May 2023)

Russian mercenary group Wagner fails to receive promised ammunition
On 09 May, the Wagner group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin said: “Russia's Wagner forces have not yet received the ammunition as promised by Moscow.” Prigozhin's forces have been attempting to capture the eastern Ukraine city of Bakhmut for months. He had earlier stated that preliminary data showed they had started receiving ammunition but had not seen it in practice. Meanwhile, Ukraine's military has vowed to prevent Russia from making a final push to capture the city. (“Head of Russia's Wagner group says still no sign of promised ammunition,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)

REGIONAL
SAP and Siemens criticise the Data Act
On 09 May, according to Reuters, SAP, a German business software company and Siemens, a German engineering company, criticised the draft Data Act which was proposed by the European Commission last year. The Data Act aims to collect the EU’s consumer and corporate data to achieve its digital and green objectives by curbing the influence of US tech giants. While the US tech giants found the act restrictive, the German companies find that their trade secrets will be exposed to non-European third parties. They said that European competitiveness will be undermined. In a letter signed on 04 May to the EU, the Chief Executives of Siemens Healthlineers, and Brainlab wrote that companies must be allowed to withhold sensitive information that risks the exposition of trade secrets. The EU wrote back saying that trade secrets must not be used as a pretext not to share data. (Foo Yun Chee, “EU draft Data Act puts trade secrets at risk, Siemens and SAP say,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)

New EU sanctions to target circumventing exports to Russia
On 08 May, according to Politico, the 11th package of EU sanctions against Russia will target countries which export the sanctioned items to Russia by circumventing. Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are the first targets. The new trade embargo is expected to target China and Turkey in the future despite the volatility of Turkey’s situation due to the elections and the strong opposition by China on 08 May. Although the proposal doesn’t specify which countries or companies or products will be sanctioned, member states can list companies and products that will be sanctioned with unanimous approval. The 11th round of sanctions is said to be released today. (Jakob Hanke Vela and Stuart Lau, “EU targets Central Asia in drive to stop sanctioned goods reaching Russia,” Politico.eu, 08 May 2023)

European People’s Party leader calls for a fast-track procedure to approve ASAP
On 08 May, according to Politico, the European People’s Party (EPP) head Manfred Weber proposed a fast-track procedure to speed up the approval of the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP). In a letter dated 03 May to the European Parliament President, Roberta Metsola, Weber wrote that the production of ammunition and weapons must be boosted to help Ukraine. ASAP was debated yesterday in Monday’s plenary of the European Parliament along with Weber’s fast-track procedure to approve the bill by 09 May. The proposal will be discussed on 11 May, and Weber proposed that approval of ASAP be scheduled for the end of the month. (Jakob Hanke Vela and Nicolas Camut, “EU Parliament seeks to speed up ammo deal for Ukraine,” Politico.eu, 08 May 2023)

Europe's defence modernisation process slows, says Economist, quoting a SIPRI study
On 07 May, according to The Economist, European countries are spending more on defence, but the modernisation process is slow. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2022, European defence spending increased by 13 per cent, but two-thirds of it were used up on inflation and the Ukrainian war. In 2022, German President Olaf Scholz declared that 100 billion euros were designated to modernize the armed forces but is left untouched. 50 billion euros was designated to buy 35 F-35 fighter jets, but it will reach Germany by the end of the decade only. Also, defence purchases above 25 million euros are hard to get approved by the German parliament. On the same lines, in Britain, the military support to Ukraine worth 2.3 billion euros has depleted its stocks. Skewed military spending and costly nuclear-capable missile purchases have further depleted the defence budget. In France, though 413 billion euros was pledged for defence spending from 2024, they still invest more in nuclear deterrents. However, in Italy, high defence spending is unlikely owing to the migration crisis and in Poland, three per cent of GDP is to be spent on defence. (“Europe is struggling to rebuild its  military clout,” The Economist, 07 May 2023)
 

INTERNATIONAL
China's call with Ukraine's President is a positive step, says EU ambassador
On 09 May, the EU ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo Albinana, called the recent call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as a positive step towards achieving peace in Ukraine. Albinana has urged China to do more to help bring about a just peace, including the withdrawal of Russian troops. He also mentioned expectations of further high-level dialogue, including talks on trade, economy, digital affairs, and climate. Albinana defended EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell's recent comments on the Taiwan Strait, stating that they had been exaggerated. (“EU envoy to China hails Xi's call with Ukraine president as positive step,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)

EU cancels reception in Israel over far-right politician's attendance
On 08 May, the Politico reported that the EU's mission to Israel cancelled a reception in Tel Aviv after Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would attend and give a speech. The mission said in a statement that they do not want to provide a platform to someone whose views contradict the EU's values. Ben-Gvir is known for his hard-line stance on security issues and controversial statements about Israel's Arab citizens. Several EU officials had asked the Israeli government to send another representative, but Ben-Gvir insisted on attending the event, where he was expected to speak. The EU spokesperson for foreign affairs stated: “The EU does not endorse Ben-Gvir's political views and was consulting internally on how to handle the situation”. Ben-Gvir became a minister last December after his party entered a coalition with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, forming Israel's most right-wing government ever. (Nicolas Camut, “Far-right Israeli minister was going to an EU event — so they canceled it,” Politico.eu, 08 May 2023)


08 May 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #508

War in Ukraine, Day 437 & 438: Wagner group back in the Bakhmut game

Wagner group checks ammunition; Slovakia’s pro-western caretaker PM resigned; Asian investors are filing lawsuits against the Swiss government

Photo : Prigozhin Press Service / AP


War in Ukraine Day, 437 & 438:
Wagner Group back in the Bakhmut game
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 07 May, Ukraine’s prosecutor general reported the death of six members from the emergency services group of Ukraine. The claim comes after Russia’s continued shelling using a drone in the most populated area in Kherson. 

On the casualty figures, Ukraine’s military reported Russia suffering 193,430 deaths since the war began.
On 07 May, Ukraine claimed striking Russia’s hypersonic missile through US supplied patriot defence system. Ukraine’s Air Force Commander, Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed the interception of Russia’s “Kinzhal-type ballistic missile.” The patriot is known for its precision targeting and combat and the US has pledged to send more in October.

On 07 May, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi reported on the endangering situation in Zaporizhzhia. He warned that the area was becoming “potentially dangerous.” Earlier 16 zones in the area were hit by 75 strikes as per report of local administration. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 07 May, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stated about Russia’s promise to support with ammunition. Earlier, he threatened to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut. Since the battle began, both Ukraine and Russia have faced severe casualties and the also differences between the Wagner and Russia.

On 07 May, Russia appointed Governor, Mikhail Razvozhayev reported on successful countering of Ukraine’s drone strike in Crimea. He said: “Anti-aircraft defense and electronic warfare units repelled a new attack.” No infrastructural damage was reported, but Sevastapol city is reported to be the key point for Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2014. Till now Ukraine has not accepted the claims.

On 07 May, the Defence Ministry of Russia reported on a prisoner exchange with Ukraine. In the report three Russian pilots were returned, while 45 Ukraine’s fighter from the Azov regiment were sent back.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 May, Poland’s representative to the EU stated his country’s request to the latter to impose sanctions on Russia’s farm products. This was mainly due to surpluses and to settle the increased import of such products from Ukraine.

On 06 May, Switzerland’s government approved Ukraine’s request to remove the ban on the weapons’ exports to conflict zones. The decision comes following Ukraine’s continued pressure. 

On 06 May, Agence France-Presse reported on increased attacks on Russia’s infrastructure such as refineries, train. According to the report, it is viewed as Ukraine’s “preparations” for its spring counteroffensive, while Ukraine has not claimed. The attacks are observed to be targeting Russia’s supply chains and military bases.

References
Kateryna Tyshchenko, “6 State Emergency Service workers killed and 2 injured in Russian attack on Kherson Oblast,” pravda.com.ua, 06 May 2023
Marc Santora, Eric Schmitt and John Ismay, “Ukraine Claims It Shot Down Russia’s Most Sophisticated Missile for First Time,” The New York Times,” 06 May 2023
Wagner Group to Get More Ammo After Bakhmut Pull-Out Threat,” The Moscow Times, 07 May 2023
Moscow-Installed Sevastopol Head Claims Drone Attacks On Annexed Crimea,” rferl.org, 07 May 2023
Ukraine, Russia hold prisoner swap, Azov fighters returned,” Reuters, 06 May 2023
IAEA warns of dangers around Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” Reuters, 07 May 2023
Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 438 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 07 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Moscow 'promised' Wagner more ammunition,” Deutsche Welle, 07 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav and Nitashree RB

ITALY
Demand for a more explicit apology from France over migration comments
On 07 May, in an interview with RAI, an Italian state-owned television, Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani stated that France’s apology for their comments over Rome’s poor handling of the migration crisis is unclear and inadequate. On 04 May, French Interior Minister, Gerald Darmanin accused Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni incapable to handle the migration crisis. Over this, Tajani called off his visit to Paris the same day. On 05 May, in an interview with CNews French government spokesperson, Olivier Veran said that Darmanian had no intentions to shun Italy. (Giselda Vagnoni, “Italy calls for clearer apology from France over migration ‘insult’,” Reuters, 07 May 2023)

NORWAY
Taking lead in switching to emission-free cars
On 08 May 2023, Euronews reported that the usage of electric vehicles is surging in Europe. According to the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association,  only 2 per 10,000 cars were fully electric in 2013, but in 2022, 76 per 10,000 cars were fully electric. According to Euronews, in 2022, there was a 58 per cent increase in the usage of electric passenger cars compared to 2021. In 2022, there were three million fully electric cars as opposed to 52,000 in 2013. In 2022, the number of fully electric cars in Germany, the UK, France, and Norway exceeded 500,000 in each country. In 2021, Norway’s 15.5 per cent of cars were fully electric while the EU’s was only 0.8 per cent. In 2022, 79 per cent of car shares were fully electric out of the newly registered passenger cars in Norway, while it was 18, 17 and 13per cent in Germany, UK, and France respectively. Norway‘s policies of strict pollution limits, and the sale of emission-free cars by 2025 push this swift change. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Norway offers tax incentives for motorists with electric vehicles and exempts them from paying registration tax, value-added, and motor fuel taxes.. (“Norway, Germany, UK: Which European countries have the biggest share of electric cars?”, Euronews, 08 May 2023)

RUSSIA
The Wagner group seeks more ammunition
On 07 May, BBC News reported that Russia’s head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed that Moscow had agreed to his demand for more ammunition to continue fighting in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. This comes days after he threatened to withdraw his men from the city and attacked his Russian partners in an expletive-filled rant filmed among Wagner troops' corpses. The alliance between Russian troops and Wagner fighters has been uneasy, with Prigozhin regularly criticizing Russian officials for a lack of front-line support. Although Prigozhin did not expressly reverse his pledge to withdraw troops from Bakhmut, he suggested that they would remain and act as they see fit. Ukrainian officials were skeptical about Prigozhin's claim to withdraw forces from Bakhmut, suspecting Wagner was moving mercenaries to capture the city before Russia's Victory Day on 02 May. However, the Kremlin has not commented on Prigozhin's latest statement. (Matt Murphy, “Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner boss 'promised ammunition' after retreat threat,” BBC News, 07 May 2023)
 
SLOVAKIA
Pro-Western caretaker PM resigns
On 07 May, Slovakia’s pro-western caretaker Prime Minister, Eduard Heger, resigned ahead of an upcoming election likely to favor the Moscow-friendly Smer-SD party. Heger stepped down two days after the Foreign Minister quit his cabinet. Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová has named central bank Deputy Governor Ludovit Odor to lead a technocratic government until the scheduled election in September. Heger, elected in 2021,has been running a caretaker government since September 2022, when the ruling coalition lost its majority over disagreements about energy costs. Polls have indicated that the Smer-SD party, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, is favorable to lead Slovakia. Fico has stated that he would end Slovakia's arms supply to Ukraine if elected to lead the next government. (Stuart Lau, “Slovak caretaker PM quits, adding momentum to pro-Russia rival,” Politico, 07 May 2023)

TURKEY
Campaigning ruckus amid presidential elections
On 07 May, Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu was attacked with stones while he was campaigning for the Republican People Party at Erzurum. Imamoglu said about nine people were injured. He will file a complaint against Erzurum’s governor and the police chief for allowing the violence. Imamoglu’s office reported that the mayor was forced to retreat for the public’s safety. They also released pictures of the shattered windows of the campaign bus. Turkish Interior Minister, Suleyman Soylu, a senior official of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, called Imamoglu, a provocateur and accused him of provocating violence. Meanwhile, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged to succeed against the opposition while campaigning. He ensured that the opposition’s pro-LGBT interests will be suppressed. He accused the opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of colluding with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party which Turkey, the US, and the EU named as terrorists. The opposition has denied the claims. “Turkey elections: Opposition campaign bus pelted with stones”, DW, 08 May 2023) 

THE UK
Prince William pays tribute to King Charles
On 07 May, Prince William paid tribute to his late grandfather, King Charles, the day after the Coronation, saying that Queen Elizabeth II would be proud of him. The Coronation concert at Windsor Castle was attended by the King and Queen Camilla and other members of the Royal Family. The crowd of 20,000 people got their tickets in a public ballot and enjoyed performances from stars such as Katy Perry and Take That. The concert also featured spoken word pieces and video cameos from various celebrities. The Royal Shakespeare Company, Royal Ballet, Royal College of Art, Royal College of Music and the Royal Opera also participated in the show. A multi-location drone show was also staged, featuring 1,000 drones in formation. (Lauren Turner & Sean Coughlan, “Coronation concert: William says he is 'so proud' of his father King Charles,” BBC News, 08 May 2023)
 

ECONOMY
Asian bondholders join international lawsuits against Swiss government
On 04 May, BBC News reported that Asian investors are filing lawsuits against the Swiss government over its handling of the takeover of Credit Suisse by larger rival Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS). In March, Credit Suisse was forced to merge amid concerns it could collapse, rendering worthless USD 17 billion of bonds held by investors. Some individual bondholders are taking legal action against Swiss authorities, claiming that the manner in which the merger was conducted deprived them of value. Shareholders were allowed to exchange their Credit Suisse shares for UBS shares, but bondholders received nothing. Despite Credit Suisse's difficulties, presentations by the bank encouraged buying bonds as late as 14 March. Legal experts have expressed doubts over the bondholders' success, but the limited time period allowed for claims has prompted action. (Nick Marsh, “Credit Suisse: Asia investors sue Switzerland over bank collapse,” BBC News, 04 May 2023)

ENERGY
Hydroelectric power in the EU: NGOs warn of the devastating environmental fallouts
On 04 May, Euractiv reported that the European Union has untapped hydroelectric deposits that could increase flexibility in the energy system, equivalent to 20 per cent of France's current hydroelectric production. However, NGOs warn of the devastating environmental effects of exploiting these natural resources. Reservoirs across Europe are currently under-utilized; improving them could increase electricity storage capacity by 80 per cent. Nevertheless, the EU competition policy would likely impede the industry, particularly in France. Conflict over the legal status of hydroelectric plants has fuelled tensions for years, with Paris advocating state management, and Brussels preferring competition. The EU is now trying to reassure investors by proposing long-term electricity sales contracts. However, environmental associations argue that exploiting new deposits would cause environmental damage and not contribute to the EU energy transition and have urged the EU to apply stringent sustainability criteria and exclude hydropower from "go-to areas." (Paul Messad, “Hydropower: EU energy transition’s other sticking point,” Euractiv, 04 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
NATO to strengthen military integration and bolster transatlantic security with Finland
On 02 May, the Director General of the NATO International Military, Lieutenant General Janusz Adamczak, visited Finland, following Finland's accession to the Alliance on April 4, 2023. During the trip, he met with military officials to discuss security priorities and opportunities for military integration. The visit began with a meeting with the Finnish Military Representative to NATO, Lieutenant General Kim Jäämeri, where Adamczak emphasized the importance of Finland's membership to NATO. He also expressed the desire to enhance collaboration between Finland and NATO. Adamczak observed exercise ARROW 23 and praised Finland's highly trained and capable armed forces. Finland’s Chief of Defence Command, Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, highlighted the importance of multi-dimensional military integration to ensure Finland's defense is fully integrated into the Alliance's collective defense. During his visit to the Finnish Air Force Command, Adamczak acknowledged Finland's experience in providing security in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions, which would significantly enhance NATO's posture in the High North and the ability to reinforce Baltic Allies. (“The Director General of the NATO International Military Staff visits Finland,” nato.int, 05 May 2023)

Evacuation near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant sparks concern of a severe nuclear accident
On 07 May, BBC News reported that Russia had ordered the evacuation of a town near Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, sparking concerns of a "severe nuclear accident", as warned by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The evacuations come ahead of Kyiv's anticipated offensive, as Russia tells people to leave 18 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, including Enerhodar, near the plant. According to Ukraine's mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, there were five-hour waits as thousands of cars left. Rafael Grossi, the director of the IAEA, said: “The evacuation of residents near the nuclear plant indicated the possibility of heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Although the plant's reactors were not producing electricity, they still contained nuclear material.” Operating staff were still at the site but there is deep concern about the increasingly tense, stressful, and challenging conditions for personnel and their families. (“Ukraine war: 'Mad panic' as Russia evacuates town near Zaporizhzhia plant,” BBC News, 07 May 2023)

IOTC members to discuss EU’s counterproposal on tuna fishing
On 08 May, Politico reported on the divided Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) regarding the proposal of a 72-day moratorium on fishing and a limit on how many devices can be used for fishing. According to the IOTC, the EU vessels catch one-third of tuna fish in the Indian Ocean. The scientists claim that when the vessels use fish aggregating devices made of wood and plastic to attract fish, it leads to overfishing and plastic pollution. 11 IOTC members are supporting the proposal while the EU through various sustainable fisheries partnership agreements with countries such as Seychelles, Madagascar, Kenya, and Tanzania is trying to block the proposal. The EU member states, through the partnerships are allowed to dock and overfish in the partner country’s waters by funding millions worth of projects, such as the blue economy project with Kenya. The EU member states are accused of leveraging their interests by influencing the IOTC members to block the proposal. IOTC’s EU delegation head, Mario Valleto, denied the claims by stating that the proposal was less conservational and called out the member countries’ commercial interests. In February 2023, Kenya backed out from supporting the proposal came as a surprise as Kenya supported the proposal in the past. This led to a secret ballot on the proposal led by Indonesia and backed by countries like India, Australia, and South Africa. Two-thirds of the countries voted in favor of the proposal while Seychelles, Kenya, Philippines, Oman, and Comoros objected it. The proposal was passed. The IOTC previously said, on the account of the IOTC scientific committee’s inability to provide a solution, a 72-day ban will be implemented as a precautionary approach. The EU opposes it by saying it cannot be done so without scientific evidence. On 08 May, the IOTC members will discuss the EU’s counterproposal which aims to discard the 72-day moratorium and the limits of the fishing devices. (Antonetta Roussi and Louise Guillot, “Environmental cash for fish: EU flashes green money to support Indian Ocean tuna grab,” Politico, 08 May 2023)
 
NATO Secretary General meets industry leaders
On 04 May, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, held a roundtable discussion at NATO Headquarters with industry leaders in energy and communications infrastructure. The discussion focused on understanding the threats to critical undersea infrastructure and sharing best practices on cooperation and coordination. Stoltenberg emphasized that protecting critical undersea infrastructure is essential to NATO's security and defense as it plays a crucial role in protecting societies' security and prosperity. The Secretary General highlighted the importance of collaborating with the industry to better enhance the security of the infrastructure. NATO has already taken steps to protect critical infrastructure, including increasing military presence in the region following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. NATO has also created an undersea infrastructure coordination cell and established a new NATO-EU taskforce on resilience and critical infrastructure protection. (“NATO Secretary General engages industry on critical undersea infrastructure,” nato.int, 05 May 2023)

Russian secret services staging fake protests in European cities
On 08 May, Deutsche Welle referring to joint research by media outlets, reported Russian secret services are staging or infiltrating demonstrations in major European cities for propaganda purposes, according s. Leaked strategy papers, said to have come from the Kremlin's security apparatus, suggest that small Russian agents simulate fake protests to create an anti-Ukraine sentiment or hamper Sweden's NATO accession. Some Kremlin-directed fake protests have already occurred, including anti-Turkish rallies where agents pretend to be Ukrainians, agitating against Turkish President Erdogan to give the impression of a broad anti-Islamic mood in Europe. The goal is to generate propaganda material for internet platforms, with several cities targeted, including Paris, The Hague, Brussels, and Frankfurt. Photos of the fake demonstrators have circulated on social media, appearing to give the impression of widespread anti-Ukrainian sentiment in western European countries. (“Russia staging protests for anti-Ukraine propaganda — report,” Deutsche Welle, 08 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
India and Russia fail to settle bilateral trade in rupees with Russia
On 04 May, Euractiv reported on India and Russia's efforts to settle bilateral trade in rupees, which have been suspended after Moscow refused to accumulate rupees, resulting in a major setback for Indian importers of cheap oil and coal from Russia. Russia has redirected all its crude oil exports affected by Western sanctions over Ukraine to "friendly" countries, and India is the largest buyer. India's share of global exports of goods is just about 2 per cent, and the rupee is not fully convertible. Russia believes it will end up with an annual rupee surplus of over USD 40 billion, which it considers undesirable and therefore Russia is not comfortable holding rupees and prefers to be paid in Chinese yuan or other currencies. India started exploring a rupee settlement mechanism with Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February last year, but no deal has been reported in rupees. (“India, Russia suspend negotiations to settle trade in rupees,” Euractiv, 04 May 2023)


05 May 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #505

War in Ukraine: Day 435

Lawsuits against the Swiss government; Untapped hydroelectric deposits in the EU; Russia and India fail to settle bilateral trade

Photo : nato.int


War in Ukraine Day: 435
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 04 May, Ukraine’s Air Force reported on bringing down its drone after continued explosions. In the report, close to 15 to 20 minutes, a Bayraktar TB2 aerial device was observed to have lost control after Russia’s attack. It was later taken away by Ukraine forces due to technical malfunction. According to Kyiv’s Mayor, Vitali Klitschko: “..firefighters put out a fire on the ground floor of a four-storey shopping center.”

On 04 May, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his visit to ICC in Hague provided address on “peace and justice in the war.” He stated that the visit was “symbolic” and welcomed ICC’s warrant on deporting of Ukrainian children. In response, Russia stated that ICC had no jurisdiction and denied to accept the charges.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 04 May, Russia announced security measures in Moscow on the occasion of the Victory Day Military Parade. The same was confirmed by Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on strengthening of the security. On the drone attack, Russia accused Ukraine for trying to assassinate Putin and issued a ban on use of drones in Moscow. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 04 May, Deutsche Welle, reported on the increasing death toll in Kherson. Due to continuing artillery attacks in Kherson, the death toll is reported to be 23, with 46 injured. According to Ukraine’s Governor: “The enemy's targets are the places where we live. Their targets are our lives and the lives of our children.” On the same day a drone attack was reported in Russia’s oil refinery. A fire broke in the Black Sea port in Novorossiysk after a drone attack in Crimea. Despite no casualties reported, the emergency services found it difficult to carry out the operation.

References
Shelling in Kherson region left 17 dead, 45 injured,” Ukrinform, 03 May 2023
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: We are attacking neither Putin nor Moscow – we are defending our villages and cities,” president.gov.ua, 03 May 2023
Message from the press service of the President,” kremlin.ru, 03 May 2023
Moscow bans use of drones,” RT News, 03 May 2023
Kiev admits to issues with Western weapons,” RT News, 03 May 2023
Russian defence chief calls for wartime missile output to be doubled,” East Lothian Courier, 02 May 2023
Joint statement of the Nordic-Ukrainian Summit in Helsinki,” government.se, 03 May 2023
Nandita Bose and Steve Holland, “US military aid for Ukraine includes air-launched rockets,” Reuters, 04 May 2023
Raf Casert, “EU wants to ramp up ammunition production to help Ukraine,” abc news, 03 May 2023
Lucia Binding, “Russian 'ghost ships' with underwater capabilities circled Nord Stream explosion site, documentary claims,” Sky News, 03 may 2023; Gordon Corera, “Nord Stream: Report puts Russian navy ships near pipeline blast site,” BBC News, 03 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

REGIONAL
NATO to strengthen military integration and bolster transatlantic security with Finland
On 02 May, the Director General of the NATO International Military, Lieutenant General Janusz Adamczak, visited Finland, following Finland's accession to the Alliance on April 4, 2023. During the trip, he met with military officials to discuss security priorities and opportunities for military integration. The visit began with a meeting with the Finnish Military Representative to NATO, Lieutenant General Kim Jäämeri, where Adamczak emphasized the importance of Finland's membership to NATO. He also expressed the desire to enhance collaboration between Finland and NATO. Adamczak observed exercise ARROW 23 and praised Finland's highly trained and capable armed forces. Finland’s Chief of Defence Command, Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, highlighted the importance of multi-dimensional military integration to ensure Finland's defense is fully integrated into the Alliance's collective defense. During his visit to the Finnish Air Force Command, Adamczak acknowledged Finland's experience in providing security in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions, which would significantly enhance NATO's posture in the High North and the ability to reinforce Baltic Allies. (“The Director General of the NATO International Military Staff visits Finland,” nato.int, 05 May 2023)
 
NATO Secretary General meets industry leaders
On 04 May, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, held a roundtable discussion at NATO Headquarters with industry leaders in energy and communications infrastructure. The discussion focused on understanding the threats to critical undersea infrastructure and sharing best practices on cooperation and coordination. Stoltenberg emphasized that protecting critical undersea infrastructure is essential to NATO's security and defense as it plays a crucial role in protecting societies' security and prosperity. The Secretary General highlighted the importance of collaborating with the industry to better enhance the security of the infrastructure. NATO has already taken steps to protect critical infrastructure, including increasing military presence in the region following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. NATO has also created an undersea infrastructure coordination cell and established a new NATO-EU taskforce on resilience and critical infrastructure protection. (“NATO Secretary General engages industry on critical undersea infrastructure,” nato.int, 05 May 2023)
 
ECONOMY
Asian bondholders join international lawsuits against Swiss government
On 04 May, BBC News reported that Asian investors are filing lawsuits against the Swiss government over its handling of the takeover of Credit Suisse by larger rival Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS). In March, Credit Suisse was forced to merge amid concerns it could collapse, rendering worthless USD 17 billion of bonds held by investors. Some individual bondholders are taking legal action against Swiss authorities, claiming that the manner in which the merger was conducted deprived them of value. Shareholders were allowed to exchange their Credit Suisse shares for UBS shares, but bondholders received nothing. Despite Credit Suisse's difficulties, presentations by the bank encouraged buying bonds as late as 14 March. Legal experts have expressed doubts over the bondholders' success, but the limited time period allowed for claims has prompted action. (Nick Marsh, “Credit Suisse: Asia investors sue Switzerland over bank collapse,” BBC News, 04 May 2023)

ENERGY
Hydroelectric power in the EU: NGOs warn of the devastating environmental fallouts
On 04 May, Euractiv reported that the European Union has untapped hydroelectric deposits that could increase flexibility in the energy system, equivalent to 20 per cent of France's current hydroelectric production. However, NGOs warn of the devastating environmental effects of exploiting these natural resources. Reservoirs across Europe are currently under-utilized; improving them could increase electricity storage capacity by 80 per cent. Nevertheless, the EU competition policy would likely impede the industry, particularly in France. Conflict over the legal status of hydroelectric plants has fuelled tensions for years, with Paris advocating state management, and Brussels preferring competition. The EU is now trying to reassure investors by proposing long-term electricity sales contracts. However, environmental associations argue that exploiting new deposits would cause environmental damage and not contribute to the EU energy transition and have urged the EU to apply stringent sustainability criteria and exclude hydropower from "go-to areas." (Paul Messad, “Hydropower: EU energy transition’s other sticking point,” Euractiv, 04 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
India and Russia fail to settle bilateral trade in rupees with Russia
On 04 May, Euractiv reported on India and Russia's efforts to settle bilateral trade in rupees, which have been suspended after Moscow refused to accumulate rupees, resulting in a major setback for Indian importers of cheap oil and coal from Russia. Russia has redirected all its crude oil exports affected by Western sanctions over Ukraine to "friendly" countries, and India is the largest buyer. India's share of global exports of goods is just about 2 per cent, and the rupee is not fully convertible. Russia believes it will end up with an annual rupee surplus of over USD 40 billion, which it considers undesirable and therefore Russia is not comfortable holding rupees and prefers to be paid in Chinese yuan or other currencies. India started exploring a rupee settlement mechanism with Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February last year, but no deal has been reported in rupees. (“India, Russia suspend negotiations to settle trade in rupees,” Euractiv, 04 May 2023)


04 May 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #504

War in Ukraine, Day 434: Nordic-Ukrainian Summit focuses on security and reconstruction

Finnish exports to Russia increases; EU plans to expand the provision of its criminal laws

Photo : president.gov.ua


War in Ukraine Day, 434:
Nordic-Ukrainian Summit focuses on security and reconstruction

By Rishika Yadav

War on the Ground
On 03 May, Ukraine’s Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets reported on Russian shelling in the Kherson region resulting in the death of 17 people and 26 injured civilians. Lubinets accused Russia of deliberately targeting residential buildings, shops, and public transport stops with precision missile strikes, which he deemed terrorism against civilians. On the same Ukraine’s head of the Kherson City Military Administration, Roman Mrochko, expressed his condolences for the victims and their families, calling the aggressors "racists-inhumans."

On 03 May, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clarified that Ukraine is defending its independence and territorial integrity, not attacking Russia or President Putin. The statement came during a press conference from the Presidential Office of Ukraine, following the Nordic-Ukrainian Summit in Helsinki, where he further added that Ukraine's army uses weapons only on the battlefield. Zelenskyy said: “Putin is making accusations to justify his continued aggression in Ukraine, as Russia has no victories on the battlefield and also Russia could solve the situation by withdrawing its troops from Ukrainian territory.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 03 May, Kremlin.ru reported on the statement of Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin. According to Putin, the Kyiv regime attempted to strike the Kremlin with two unmanned aerial vehicles, but the Russian military and special services used radar warfare systems to put them out of action. No one was injured, and there was no material damage. The Russian side considers this a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the President's life, and reserves the right to take retaliatory measures.

On 04 May, the RT reported on the statement made by Moscow's mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, on the ban of unauthorized drone use in the city following a failed Ukrainian drone attack on the Kremlin residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kiev has employed drones to attack Russian civilian and military infrastructure for over a year and the ban, effective immediately, allows exceptions for approved drone use. Sobyanin said: “the measure aims to prevent unauthorized use of drones, which may disrupt law enforcement, and violators may face legal consequences.” The Kremlin press service reported that Putin was unharmed and that the drones were neutralized by electronic warfare measures. 

On 02 May, the RT reported on a published interview by a top adviser to Zelenskyy, admitting that Ukraine had modified its long-inactive Western weapons received from its backers, after reports surfaced that all 20 self-propelled howitzers sent by Italy turned out to be defective. He attempted to downplay the issue, stating that the guns required an operational upgrade and that it's common for Ukrainian technicians to modify weapons. This follows similar reports of difficulties faced by German-made howitzers and a faulty air-defense system supplied by a European nation.

On 02 May, the East Lothian Courier reported that Russia's defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, has called for doubling of missile production as the threat of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive looms. Both sides are experiencing ammunition shortages, with Russia possibly running low on high-precision ammunition. Also, the UK's Ministry of Defense attributed Russia's struggles to logistics problems and lack of munitions. The White House estimates that Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties, including 20,000 deaths, since December, as Ukraine repelled Russian forces. However, Russian forces launched attacks on 02 May, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, thereby Ukraine is stockpiling ammunition along potential supply lines for its own counter-offensive. To be noted, Ukraine is firing up to 7,000 artillery shells per day, one-third of the amount used by Russia. Nonetheless, Denmark has pledged GBP 201 million in aid to Ukraine, including munitions, mine clearance vehicles, field bridges, and air defense assets. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 May, according to the statement published by Government Offices of Sweden by Sweden’s Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, after the joint Nordic-Ukrainian Summit with leaders from Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Ukraine issued a joint statement condemning Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. The leaders called for the immediate, complete, and unconditional withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukraine's territory within its internationally recognized borders. They are also committed to participating in Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction after the war, as well as its integration into the Euro-Atlantic countries. The leaders emphasized the need for accountability for war crimes and atrocity crimes committed in connection with Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and called for increased collective pressure on Russia through further sanctions to weaken its ability to continue the illegal war. They also agreed to work together with others to develop mechanisms to provide compensation for losses, injuries, and damages caused by the Russian aggression, including through the use of frozen and immobilized Russian assets.
 
On 03 May, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken made an announcement to provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth USD 300 million, including Hydra-70 rockets taken from excess US stocks, funded through the Presidential Drawdown Authority. This marks the 37th US-approved security assistance package since Russia's invasion in February 2022, totalling USD 35.7 billion, it also reaffirmed the US's commitment to standing with Ukraine. The package includes munitions, anti-tank weapons, HIMARS, demolition equipment, and trucks, to support Kyiv's upcoming spring offensive against Russian ground positions.
 
On 03 May, following the move by the US that it will send USD 300 million in military aid to Ukraine, the EU has unveiled plans to increase large-scale ammunition production, called the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), with a budget of at least one billion euros, to replenish depleted stocks in member states and provide Ukraine with much-needed ammunition. The EU's internal market commissioner, Thierry Breton, stressed the urgency of delivering what Ukraine needs immediately. The initiative aims to improve the EU's geopolitical credentials and secure peace on the continent, marking a shift away from a longstanding lack of military stockpiles and limited production capacity. NATO allies and partner countries have also delivered combat vehicles, tanks, and vast amounts of ammunition, along with training and equipping new Ukrainian brigades.
 
On 03 May, Sky News and BBC News reported on a new lead in the investigation into the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions in September 2022, that points to Russia's involvement. An investigative documentary by Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland broadcasters reveals that Russian navy vessels, including the research vessel Sibiryakov, were present near the explosion site before the blasts occurred. The ships had their transmitters turned off, but their movements were tracked through intercepted radio communications sent to Russian naval bases. The Sibiryakov, with its crew and underwater equipment, is suspected of having placed charges on the pipelines to cause the explosions. The documentary does not provide conclusive evidence, but raises questions about the suspicious ship movements. Russia has denied involvement, and called for the investigation to be speeded up and results to be published. Denmark's armed forces have confirmed taking 26 photos of a Russian vessel near the explosion site just four days before the blasts. Sweden, Denmark, and Germany are still continuing the investigation to inquire into the destruction.

References
Shelling in Kherson region left 17 dead, 45 injured,” Ukrinform, 03 May 2023
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: We are attacking neither Putin nor Moscow – we are defending our villages and cities,” president.gov.ua, 03 May 2023
Message from the press service of the President,” kremlin.eu, 03 May 2023
Moscow bans use of drones,” RT News, 03 May 2023
Kiev admits to issues with Western weapons,” RT News, 03 May 2023
Russian defence chief calls for wartime missile output to be doubled,” East Lothian Courier, 02 May 2023
Joint statement of the Nordic-Ukrainian Summit in Helsinki,” government.se, 03 May 2023
Nandita Bose and Steve Holland, “US military aid for Ukraine includes air-launched rockets,” Reuters, 04 May 2023
Raf Casert, “EU wants to ramp up ammunition production to help Ukraine,” abc news, 03 May 2023
Lucia Binding, “Russian 'ghost ships' with underwater capabilities circled Nord Stream explosion site, documentary claims,” Sky News, 03 may 2023; Gordon Corera, “Nord Stream: Report puts Russian navy ships near pipeline blast site,” BBC News, 03 May 2023
 


Europe in Brief
By Nityashree RB


ITALY
Police across Europe carry out raids against the ‘Ndrangheta mafia
On 03 May, as a part of Operation Eureka, 10 countries carried out raids against the Italian mafia, ‘Ndrangheta. This raid is said to be one of the largest against the drug mafia. According to BBC 25 million euros were seized. In Italy, 108 suspects were arrested, and thousands of tonnes of cocaine, heroin, and hashish were seized where 1000 officers were deployed. In Belgium, 13 arrests took place, and money laundering fronts were exposed. In Germany, 24 arrests took place. Belgian investigators were invited to San Luca, Calabria by some of the suspects who had helped them to infiltrate the most powerful mafia in the country. According to Europol, as a part of Operation Eureka, three-year long investigations in Italy, Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Slovenia, Romania, Brazil, and Panama provided basic information on the operations of the mafia even during the COVID-19, said Europol. Sophisticated message decryption systems were used to understand the coded messages of the ‘Ndrangheta. According to an Italian prosecutor, Giovanni Melillo, drugs from South America were docked at European ports such as Antwerp, Rotterdam, Gioia Tauro, and dispensed across Europe. They worked with Chines criminals to launder money. (Sofia Bettiza, “Italy’s ‘Ndrangheta targeted in police raids across Europe,” BBC, 03 May 2023)

REGIONAL
EU plans to expand the provision of its criminal laws to counter corruption
On 03 May, the EU proposed a directive to upgrade its criminal laws against corruption to mitigate bribery, abuse of office, and illicit enrichment. The directive aims to bring about a consensus across the bloc to control cross-border crimes. It aims for the member countries to establish a common definition of corruption crimes and for the establishment of an anti-corruption agency. It requires mutual cooperation with the EU anti-corruption network. The law will be applicable to public institutions and private entities. Not all forms of corruption are criminalised across the bloc. The prison sentences vary for different forms of corruption across the bloc. In the future, the EU also has plans to sanction foreign nationals under corruption charges. (Jennifer Rankin, “EU aims to harmonise criminal laws across bloc to fight corruption,” The Guardian, 03 May 2023)

Switzerland aims to join the PESCO’s military projects
On 03 May, Euractiv in an interview with a Switzerland’s Defence Ministry spokesperson  reported on Switzerland’s plan to join the defence projects of the EU’s Permanent Structure Cooperation (PESCO). According to the spokesperson, Switzerland aims to participate in a few military projects such as military mobility and cyber defence projects. One such being the Military Mobility project, which aims to remove red tape and to build a network between the members for ease of movement of troops and equipment. Similarly, inAugust 2022, a Swiss media outlet ‘Blick’ expressed Switzerland’s wish to join PESCO’s cyber defence project. Switzerland aims to cooperate with the other/neighbouring EU member states to thwart cyber-attacks from a highly volatile and lethal cyberspace. The collaboration is expected to be ‘ad hoc’ in nature while ensuring its neutrality. (Aurelie Puugnet, “Switzerland considers joining EU’s military mobility, cyber defence projects,” Euractiv, 03 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Finnish exports to Russia decrease; EU’s exports to Central Asia increases
On 03 May, the Helsinki Times said that owing to the Russo-Ukrainian war, Finnish exports to Russia have decreased than the exports from the EU to Russia. According to Eurostat, there is a 38 per cent decrease in the exports of the EU to Russia compared to 2022 EUR 34 billion. For the period of January to February 2023, there was a 50 per cent decrease compared to last year. Exports to the Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia and Uzbekistan have increased 88 per cent compared to the last year. From January to February 2023, there was a 98 per cent increase. The Statistics Director, Olli-Pekka Penttila said that while the exports from Slovenia and Latvia increased Finnish exports to Russia have significantly decreased. Finnish exports to Russia from January to February 2023, have decreased by 78 per cent while the exports to Central Asian countries increased by 260 per cent. This is due to the increase in customs clearances which offers wide opportunities for Finland. (“Finnish exports to Russia drop by 78 per cent, while EU trade with Central Asia grow,” Helsinki Times, 03 May 2023)

US and Finnish officials discuss on military cooperation 
On 02 May, Helsinki Times reported on a bilateral Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) deal signed between the US Deputy Director General, Mikael Antell and Finland official. The agreement will provide Finland with a deterrent factor by stationing US defence troops and equipment. He said: “The DCA will enable the entry and stay of troops, the advance storage of material, and possible infrastructure investments through funds granted to Pentagon by the US Congress.” The DCA will establish cooperation in a short notice in case of any security situation. (Aleksi Teivainen, “HS: Finnish and US officials discussing defence deal that’s enable US to freely use Finnish soil,” Helsinki Times, 02 May 2023)


03 May 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #503

War in Ukraine, Day 433: Zelenskyy demands for more air defence for the upcoming counteroffensive

ISIS leader killed in Syria; Population decline in the EU since 2026; Poland to prioritize strengthening transatlantic ties with US

Photo : AFP


War in Ukraine Day, 433:
Zelenskyy demands for more air defence for the upcoming counteroffensive

By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 02 May, after the attacks on its military production and munitions, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for boosting its air defence. He said: “We are working with our partners as actively as possible to make the protection of our skies even more reliable.” Highlighting the previous counter of 15 Russian missile out of 18, he stated how Ukraine was unable to bring down all.

On 02 May, Ukraine’s spokesperson Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Russia had changed its war tactics by particularly targeting the residential areas. He said: “There's no doubt that they are conducting direct attacks on civil residential houses or locations with many houses belonging to the civilian population.” According to Podolyak, Russia had initially targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and now its shifting to test Ukraine’s air defence capability.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 May, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reported how Russia has been successful in inflicting heavy damages to Ukraine in the frontline. Despite such blows, the weapon supply and steps towards arms production in the war is considered critical for Russia. He said: “The country's leadership has set defense enterprises the task of increasing the pace and volume of production in a short time.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 02 May, Denmark’s intelligence service predicted that Russia was likely to use its civilians, journalist and business personnel in spying. Following the observation from Danish Security and Intelligence Service, Russia had amplified its efforts in “intelligence gathering.” This led to the expelling of Russian diplomats in 2022 by Denmark.

On 02 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on shortage of ammunition for Russia that may not help it to counter Ukraine’s offensive. According to the report, Russia still prioritises strengthening its defence industry. Despite the efforts it seems to lag in meeting the “wartime demands.” 

On 02 May, Deutsche Welle reported on the discussion held between NATO members on Ukraine and Georgia’s membership. In the closed meeting, the US, Germany along with other members are reported to have assured Ukraine’s membership as necessary without giving a specific time.
 


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav


ITALY
Government faces backlash from the opposition and unions over new labour decree
On 01 May, labour unions and the opposition criticized the government for introducing a new labor decree that increases tax cuts. The opposition claims that this move will exacerbate job insecurity. The government’s decision to debate the new decree has further angered unions who claimed they did not have enough time to propose any changes. Meloni defended the new decree, highlighting the effect of the tax cuts on labour, which will result in an increase of EUR 100 per month on average from July to December, with those earning up to EUR 25,000 benefiting from a seven per cent reduction and those earning up to  EUR 35,000 benefiting from a six percent reduction. The government also plans to introduce the inclusion allowance for households with minors, disabled, or elderly individuals above 60, up to EUR 500 per month for 18 months. The opposition and labor unions have promised to protest against the new decree, calling for the introduction of a minimum wage and to end risky jobs. (Federica Pascale, “Italy’s new labor decree promises less taxes but more precarity,” Euractiv, 02 May 2023)

THE UK
Over a million NHS staff in England to receive five per cent pay rise
On 03 May, BBC News reported that over one million NHS staff in England will receive a five per cent pay increase and a one-time payment of at least GBP 1,655, after 14 health unions agreed to the deal proposed by the government in March. The agreement covers all NHS staff except doctors and dentists. The offer was accepted by a majority of unions, including Unison and the GMB, but the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) rejected the deal and has threatened further strike action. The British Medical Association (BMA) also met with the Health Secretary to discuss junior doctors' pay, but the two sides have not reached an agreement. (Nick Triggle, “NHS pay deal signed off for one million staff,” BBC News, 03 May 2023)

REGIONAL
Bulgarian government investigated for failure to implement EU sanctions against Russia
On 28 April, according to a statement released by the Bulgarian Prosecutor's Office, Bulgaria's implementation of EU sanctions against Russia is being investigated. Bulgaria has reportedly failed to impose sanctions against Russian citizens and firms included on the EU sanctions list. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU has imposed sanctions on nearly 1,400 Russian citizens and over 170 companies, as well as freezing over EUR 300 billion from Russian banks and EUR 20 billion of assets owned by Russian oligarchs. However, Bulgaria's National Revenue Agency has not issued any act imposing sanctions for eight years. The European Commission has requested that EU countries report their actions to implement sanctions against Russia, which it hopes will enable the identification of assets that could be confiscated and used to rebuild Ukraine. (Krassen Nikolov, “Bulgarian government investigated over Russia sanctions implementation,” Euractiv, 01 May 2023)

Eurostat predicts gradual population decline in the EU from 2026
On 02 May, Les Echos reported on Eurostat’s prediction of a gradual decline in the population of the EU from 2026, particularly in Southern and Eastern countries like Italy, Portugal, Hungary, and Romania. Eurostat data shows that the EU population will reach its peak of 453.2 million in 2026, before a slow decrease to 447.9 million by 2050 due to an aging population and a decline in the working population. While Ireland and Sweden are expected to see population growth, Germany will have a slight increase,  southern and eastern European countries will experience a decline in their population. Italy will have a decline from 59 million inhabitants to 57.5 million by 2050 due to its high proportion of people over 65. The European demographic dynamics differ from the global trend, with Africa's population expected to almost triple in the 21st century. Demographer Laurent Toulemon warns of the sharp decline in the share of the European population in the world population. (Marine Bourrier, “5 figures to understand the demographic decline in Europe,” Les Echos, 02 May 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Public support for climate action in Europe
On 02 May, according to The Guardian, a recent YouGov survey was conducted in the UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, and Italy to find people’s opinion on climate action. The survey found that between 60 to 80 per cent were in support of climate action at individual and at government policy level. The majority of respondents were worried about climate change and agreed that it is caused by human activity. Surprisingly, they were restrained from taking subsequent measures that affect their daily lifestyle. The survey found that measures that do not require significant lifestyle changes, such as tree-planting programs and growing more plants, were more popular. There was also support for banning single-use plastics and limiting meat and dairy consumption. However, measures that would significantly impact daily life, such as giving up driving altogether, were less popular. People were opposed to an increase in fuel duty and a ban on petrol and diesel cars. (Jon Henley, “Many Europeans want climate action – but less so if it changes their lifestyle, shows poll,” The Guardian, 02 May 2023)

Baerbock calls for global renewable energy target
On 02 May, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock urged for a global renewable energy target as electricity demand grows. During the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, Baerbock said that countries must work together to tackle the climate crisis, calling it the "greatest security challenge of our century." Baerbock called for a global treaty on renewable energy, like the targets set by the G7 in April, to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels. The discussions also addressed financial support for countries affected by the climate crisis. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is possible but requires significant changes across all sectors. (“Germany's Baerbock urges global action on renewable energy,” Deutsche Welle, 02 may 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
ISIS leader killed in Syria
On 01 May, The Guardian reported on the announcement made by the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that Turkish intelligence forces have killed Abu Hussein al-Qurashi, the leader of the Islamic State, in Syria. The operation, which had been pursued for a long time, took place in the northern Syrian town of Jindires, controlled by Turkey-backed rebel groups, and was one of the worst-affected by the 6 February earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria. According to a spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces, “al-Qurashi was in a military position owned by the Ahrar al-Sharqiya militia supported by Turkish mercenary group, Ahrar al-Sharqiya”. The Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed primarily Kurdish fighting coalition in northern Syria, pointed to Turkish influence and control in Jinderes. After offensives by forces backed by the US in Syria and Iraq, and Syrian forces supported by Iran, the group's control over extensive regions in Iraq and Syria was weakened. Russia, and various paramilitaries. Its remaining militants have mostly hidden out in remote hinterlands of both countries, capable of carrying out major hit-and-run attacks. (Ruth Michaelson,“Turkish forces kill Islamic State chief in Syria raid, says Erdoğan,” The Guardian, 01 May 2023)

Poland to prioritize strengthening transatlantic ties with US During EU Presidency in 2025
On 01 May, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda announced that Poland aims to strengthen the EU's ties with the US during its presidency in the Council of the EU in 2025, with a focus on cooperation in security and the economy. While speaking on the 19th anniversary of Poland's membership in the EU, Duda said the country would focus on reinforcing collaboration with the US and strengthening transatlantic ties, including building a joint security system. President Duda also discussed EU enlargement, including membership for Ukraine and Moldova, and the accession process for western Balkan countries, in order to support the EU's open-door policy Poland joined the EU in 2004 and has held the Council of the EU presidency only once in 2011, since then. Among the priorities during that presidency were completing membership talks with Croatia and the association agreement with Ukraine. (Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, “Poland to reinforce transatlantic relations during next Council of EU presidency,” Euractiv, 02 May 2023)


02 May 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #502

War in Ukraine: Day 432 | Protests in France over pension bill: Three Issues

Russia charges criminal offences on young men for avoiding war; Belgium faces Greenpeace activists; UK announces additional evacuation flight from Sudan

Photo : JEFF PACHOUD / AFP


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Protests in France over pension bill: Three Issues

On 01 May, France’s Interior Minister reported on clashes between the protestors and the police officers due to tensions over pension reform. As per the government reports, 782,000 were reported to have taken part in the protests, with a large number in Paris. The CGT union leader said: “The page is not going to be turned as long as there is no withdrawal of this pension reform. The determination to win is intact.” Violent clashes were also observed in Lyons, Toulouse and Nantes. The government has accused far-left groups of instigating violence during the protests and has issued a warning that they may face consequences..

First, non-acceptance of the pension reform by labour unions. The government's proposal to pass the pension reform as a bill has caused widespread outrage among labor unions due to its controversial nature. Although it is unlikely that the bill will be reversed or altered, French labor unions are using May Day as an opportunity to express their strong objection. May Day saw the most violent and massive participation in the protests against the bill compared to earlier stages. The protestors aimed to apply maximum pressure on the government to withdraw the bill. It was possible for the unions to unite because of the strong will and rage among the workers against the reform. While they project an aggressive image, they still claim to be open to talks with the government.

Second, the rigid response of the government and a fragile opposition. President Emmanuel Macron, who is the primary target for passing the controversial bill, has granted a 100-day period to resolve the matter. The bill, which is expected to come into force in September, no efforts towards talking with the labour unions nor a signal to modify the pension bill, being taken by the government. It has opted to side towards support of the police to counteract the violent protests. Whereas the opposition which initially failed to pass two referendums against the bill due to the divide within, waits uncertainly for the constitutional council to allow to call another referendum.

Third, continuing civil unrest. Foundation Jean-Jaures research institute found in a survey that close to 60 per cent population was against the reform. The protests and worker strikes were expected to continue after the passing of the bill, but the nature and intensity has created more tensions. Increased participation and protests occurring in expanded areas is showcasing the unwillingness amongst the people to accept the bill. This has resulted in increased rallies, and strikes with continued impact on basic public services.

References
Robert Greenall, “France protests: More than 100 police hurt in May Day demonstrations,” BBC, 01 May 2023
Ivanne Trippenbach, “French government leans on police and prefects to quell protests,” Le Monde, 02 May 2023
Constant Méheut, “Anger Over Pensions Law Fuels May Day Protests in France,” The New York Times, 01 May 2023


War in Ukraine Day, 432:
Russia claims destroying Ukraine’s 46th airborne brigade
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 01 May, Ukrinform reported on Russian attacks on Kherson using 163 projectiles. The same was confirmed by the regional military administration, which observed the Russian troops to have used MLRS, UAVs, and heavy artillery towards the residential settlements in Kherson. 

On 01 May, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported on the cruise missile strike by Russia in Murmansk region. The attack was observed to be carried out through Tu-95 bombers, Tu-160 bombers. Zaluzhnyi confirmed that of the 18 such missiles launched, 15 were taken down by Ukraine’s air force.

On 01 May, a spokesperson of Ukraine’s air force stated that all supplied air defence systems to Ukraine were deployed for combat duty and to safeguard the airspace. According to the spokesperson, the received missile systems such as IRIS-T, and Patriot have been helpful for Ukraine, but not enough to guard all directions.

On 01 May, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins discussed on the need for cooperation in defence, humanitarian aid to help Ukraine. Zelenskyy stated that it would be possible only through combining countries from the “Pacific region.” Zelenskyy has a similar conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron on delivery of new weapons and ammunition. They were reported to have discussed on a new weapons package to Ukraine for the counteroffensive. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 May, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin once again raised concerns over the shortage of ammunition. He claimed that close to 300 tonnes of material support was needed while only one-third was being given to its forces. Prigozhin said: “..at the hands of the Ukrainian army or NATO but because of our domestic bastard-bureaucrats.”

On 01 May, RT reported on Russia’s Ministry of Defence claim on the launch of massive missile attack across Ukraine. In the report, the attacks are claimed to have targeted the weapon production, military industry, and munitions of Ukraine. Although the details of the locations were not disclosed, the strikes were reported in Kyiv, Sumy, and Dnepropetrovsk areas. According to a Russian spokesperson, the attack had destroyed Ukraine’s “46th airborne brigade” that was expected to be used in counteroffensive. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 May, CPH post reported on Denmark’s Defence Ministry statement on the delivery of weapons to Ukraine. According to the report, owing to the earlier pledges, Denmark delivered the second largest Caesar howitzer, which is a 6X6 military truck equipped with “autonomous propulsion system,” to move forward to the firing position. In response, Russian strongly condemned for transfer.

On 01 May, the White House released a statement on the mass casualties in Ukraine since the war. According to the White House National Security Advisor John Kirby, 100,000 Russia are reported to have died since the war began and close to 20,000 dead since December 2022.

On 01 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Military of Defence reported that Russia was observed to be forming defence structures across the frontline in Ukraine and in some parts inside Russia. This was observed especially in the northern border of Crimea and the village of Medvedivka. Such defences are viewed as an attempt by Russia to counter the upcoming counteroffensive of Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implication of the war  

On 01 May, Nexus, a collaborative initiative between Ukraine and Israel sent 130 tonnes of humanitarian aid since the war started. The aid consists of first aid kits, bandages, hygiene items, radio communication device, equipment for hospital and rescue teams. This comes after the Ukraine’s Deputy Chairman visit to Israel.
 

References
Kherson region comes under enemy fire 39 times, civilian killed,” Ukrinform, 01 May 2023
Russians attack Ukraine’s territory with strategic aircraft: 18 cruise missiles fired,” Ukrinform, 01 May 2023
IRIS-T, Patriot systems already on combat duty in Ukraine – Air Force spox,” Ukrinform, 01 May 2023
Zelensky, New Zealand PM discuss defense cooperation,” Ukrinform, 01 May 2023
Russia launches large-scale attack on Ukrainian military-industrial facilities,” RT, 01 May 2023
Ramisha Ali, “Keeping promises: Denmark delivers formidable self-propelled artillery system to Ukraine,” cphpost.dk, 01May 2023
Russia's Prigozhin renews appeal for more ammunition to seize city of Bakhmut,” Reuters, 01 May 2023
Ukraine updates: Russian attack causes injuries, damage,” Deutsche Welle, 01 May 2023
More than 130 tons of humanitarian aid from Israel delivered to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 01 May 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

ITALY
Demographic Crisis: Italy's declining birth rate and emptying classrooms
On 01 May, The Guardian reported on Italy's declining birth rate resulting in fewer children attending schools, leading to concern about the future of communities. Champorcher's infant school, which has been a vital part of the community for centuries, is now facing empty classrooms. According to Tuttoscuola, a news outlet specializing in education, infant schools in Italy have lost 30 percent of pupils over the last decade. Government figures forecast 1.4 million fewer students aged between three and 18 by 2034, and the birth rate has been declining since the 2008 financial crisis. Factors contributing to the decline include difficulty in finding stable jobs, insufficient childcare support, and a decline in the number of women of reproductive age. Various financial incentives have been offered to encourage people to start a family, but they have failed to yield results. Immigration is a sore point for the government, and they are trying to come up with ways to counter shrinking class sizes and keep schools open for as long as possible. (Angela Giuffrida, “Vanishing like glaciers’: plunging birthrate threatens Italian schools,” The Guardian, 01 May 2023)

NORWAY
Norwegian government accused of delaying action on illegal wind turbines
On 01 May, NewsinEnglish reported that the Norwegian government caused frustration among the Sami population by failing to implement a plan to remove wind turbines on their grazing land as the Supreme Court ruled over two years ago that these turbines were illegal. Sami demonstrators occupied the ministry's lobby after 500 days had passed with no action against the turbines. Talks between the ministry and the Sami Parliament have broken down, as the state demanded more studies instead of concrete action to address ongoing violations of Sami's human rights. The disagreement concerns a new report that the state wants to compile over how wind turbines disturb reindeer grazing, and whether wind power generation and grazing can coexist. However, the Sami argue that this report is unnecessary, and accuse the ministry of engaging in delay tactics. The government is being accused of mounting a new effort to keep the turbines operating, instead of respecting the Supreme Court decision. Sami demonstrators occupied the ministry's lobby after 500 days had passed with no action against the turbines. (Nina Berglund, “State snubs Sami again, protests loom,” NewsinEnglish, 01 May 2023)

RUSSIA
Russian men face criminal charges for avoiding war in Ukraine
On 01 May, The New York Times reported that after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many Russian men have been charged with criminal offenses for refusing to fight in the war. One officer from Russia's Federal Guard Service, Major Mikhail Zhilin, responsible for protecting President Putin, disguised himself as a mushroom picker and sneaked across the southern border into Kazakhstan. He wore camouflage and carried a couple of small bottles of cognac to act drunk and disoriented if he encountered the Russian border patrol. According to the report: “Last year, 1,121 people were convicted of evading mandatory military conscription, compared to an average of around 600 in other recent years. In addition, criminal cases have been initiated against more than 1,000 soldiers, mostly for abandoning their units.” The penalties for being absent without leave were toughened, and the maximum sentence was doubled to 10 years. “Refusing an order to participate in combat carries a sentence of three to 10 years.” Russian law theoretically allows for conscientious objectors to perform alternative service, but it is rarely granted. (Neil MacFarquhar, “They Refused to Fight for Russia. The Law Did Not Treat Them Kindly,” The New York Times, 01 May 2023)

THE UK
NHS staff in England expected to receive five percent pay increase
On 02 May, BBC News reported that the National Health Service (NHS) staff in England are expected to receive their five percent pay increase after a meeting between government officials and 14 NHS unions representing all staff except doctors and dentists, expected to be held on 02 May. The unions will declare whether the majority of the workforce are in favor of the deal or not. Unite is the only major union to reject the deal, while the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) will need to hold another strike ballot of its members after its six-month mandate expired on 01 May. England’s Health Secretary Steve Barclay has said the five percent pay offer is the government's "best and final offer," while the British Medical Association (BMA) will also be meeting with Barclay to discuss the junior doctors' pay dispute, seeking an increase of 35 percent to cover up for 15 years of increase in below-inflation wage. (Nick Triggle, “Government on brink of giving NHS staff 5% pay rise,” BBC News, 02 May 2023)

REGIONAL
Denmark to help Ukraine rebuild  wind energy infrastructure
On 29 April, the Copenhagen Post reported on the announcement made by Danish Energy Minister Lars Aagaard and Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko on Denmark’s plan to provide expertise in energy infrastructure, with a focus on onshore and offshore wind energy, in order to offer assistance to Ukraine in rebuilding its nation. Ukraine being Europe's second-largest country with vast agricultural land, has a considerable potential for wind turbines. However, many of its existing turbines have been destroyed, resulting in a decrease in onshore wind energy production from 1.7 GWs, after the Russian invasion. In the short term, Denmark will aid in the restoration and expansion of onshore wind energy resources, while the long-term aspect of the deal will involve exploring the potential for offshore wind energy. Denmark will also help Ukraine establish legislation aimed at promoting wind energy, as part of a green reimagining of its energy infrastructure. (Shirsha Chakraborty, “Denmark offers helping energy hand to Ukraine,” Copenhagen Post, 29 April 2023)

Protests across Europe erupt on May Day
On 01 May, labour unions and social activists marched across Europe marking International Workers Day to highlight their causes, while many expressed concerns about rising inflation. Climate activists in Paris vandalized a Louis Vuitton Museum, and protesters in Germany demonstrated against violence targeting women and LGBTQ+ people. Despite occasional clashes with police, thousands of people took part in mostly peaceful demonstrations. In Germany, leftist groups and labour unions organized hundreds of rallies, and the German Trade Union Confederation reported that 288,000 people participated in 398 events. In France, hundreds of thousands of people protested President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform, and the protests turned violent, with clashes between protesters and security forces. In Italy, the right-wing government approved measures to boost employment and pay rates, while protesters marched against welfare cuts and loosening rules on short-term employment contracts. In Spain, over 70 marches were organized by unions warning of "social conflict" if salaries did not keep pace with inflation. (“May Day protests: Labor rights demonstrations across Europe,” Deutsche Welle, 01 May 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Denmark on track to meet its climate goals says energy agency
On 28 April, the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) published its annual projections suggesting that Denmark is on track to meet its climate goals. Moreover, the country is estimated to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 49.8 percent by 2025, as compared to the levels in 1990, meeting the target reduction of 50-54 percent. Denmark has set a goal of becoming climate neutral by 2045, with negative greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Despite this progress, Denmark’s Climate Minister Lars Aagaard emphasizes the need for continued efforts to phase out fossil fuels and reduce CO2 levels. The government plans to achieve the targets by increasing the use of biofuels in petrol for vehicles. However, green advocates, such as the Council on Climate Change (Klimarådet), have expressed skepticism about this strategy, calling it a "patchwork solution". (Nicolai Kampmann, “Report: Denmark is closing in on political climate targets,” Copenhagen Post, 28 April 2023)
 
Greenpeace activists occupy Belgian LNG terminal
On 29 April, activists from six countries sailed inflatables into the terminal, operated by Fluxys, a Belgium LNG transportation company. They displayed a banner reading “Gas kills” and occupied the quays for six hours before being removed by police. Greenpeace Belgium is working to secure the release of 14 activists who have been detained for more than 48 hours after trespassing and occupying a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Zeebrugge, Belgium. Greenpeace wants to draw attention to the role of gas companies, such as Fluxys, in the increased LNG imports to Europe from the US. According to Greenpeace, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Europe’s imports of LNG from the US have increased by 140 percent. The group is calling for all new gas infrastructure to be stopped and for a European plan to phase out gas by 2035. In response to climate activism, Just Stop Oil sister groups funded by the Climate Emergency Fund now operate in 11 countries, with protesters using roadblock and slow march tactics. (Damien Gayle, “Greenpeace activists held in Belgium after occupying gas terminal,” The Guardian, 01 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
UK government announces additional evacuation flight from Sudan
On 01 May, the UK government decided to carry out an additional evacuation flight from Sudan, allowing British nationals still hoping to leave the war-torn country. Whereas, the UK’s Foreign secretary, James Cleverly, earlier confirmed that there would be no further evacuation flights from Wadi Seidna, the extension of the UK evacuation came after the government allowed National Health Service (NHS) workers to join British nationals trapped in Sudan on to flights on 29 April. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has confirmed that 2,122 people have been evacuated by the government on 23 flights, calling it the “longest and largest evacuation effort of any western country from Sudan”. In addition, Sudan’s army and its rival paramilitary said they would extend a humanitarian ceasefire for a further 72 hours. (Heather Stewart, “UK government extends Sudan evacuation with additional flight,” The Guardian, 30 April 2023)


01 May 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #501

War in Ukraine: Day 430 & 431

Wagner Group leader reports heavy casualties and ammunition shortage in Bakhmut

Photo : Institute for the Study of War


War in Ukraine Day: 430 & 431
By Padmashree Anandhan
 

War on the Ground
On 30 April, a Ukraine military spokesperson reported on the situation in Bakhmut. According to the report, despite continued shelling by Russia in the west of Bakhmut targeting its main supply route, it has been unsuccessful in disrupting the logistical supply to Ukraine troops. In a statement, Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Cherevaty said: “The Russians have been talking for several weeks about conquering the 'road of life' as well as keeping fire control over it. In reality, everything is different.” 

On 29 April, Ukraine’s spokesperson demanded that Germany deliver air defence systems, tanks, and ammunition, so Ukraine’s military can prepare for the counteroffensive. According to the spokesperson: “For the planned counteroffensive, we need more armored vehicles, tanks and artillery systems, long-range ammunition in the shortest possible time.”

On 29 April, Ukraine’s Defence Minister affirmed the completion of the preparations towards the “counterassault” against Russia. The  equipment delivery has been “partially delivered,” according to the Minister and expects Ukraine to launch a ground offensive soon.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 April, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced replacing deputy minister with Colonel General Alexei Kuzmenkov. His role will be to monitor the logistical support for the armed forces. On Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the Wagner Group leader Yeveny Prigozhin stated it would be a “tragedy” for Russia. He also complained about the shortage of ammunition: “We (Wagner) have only 10-15 per cent of the shells that we need.” 

On 29 April, Prigozhin warned on withdrawing the Wagner Group forces from Bakhmut city due to the high casualty rate. He reported the loss rate to be five times more than the required artillery replacement. He added: “If the ammunition deficit is not replenished, we are forced, in order not to run like cowardly rats afterwards, to either withdraw or die.” Earlier as per the reports from the UK intelligence, the number of deaths have been high for both Ukraine and Russia. The recent claims from Prigozhin over withheld ammunition and well-equipped Ukrainian troops has created confusing image on Russia’s stake in Bakhmut. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 29 April, the European Commission announced the signing of the grain deal with eastern European countries for agricultural imports from Ukraine. Previously tensions arose due to Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland imposing restrictions to Ukraine’s grain imports. According to the report, wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds would come under safeguard measures.

On 29 April, Deutsche Welle reported that South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol stated that the government is deciding on if it should provide lethal aid to Ukraine. The government is reported to be closely tracking the battlefield scenario to take measures as per international law.

References
Kateryna Tyshchenko, “Russians far from seizing "road of life" to Bakhmut – Defence Force,” pravda.com.ua, 29 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Kyiv 'urgently' needs more military aid from Germany,” Taiwan News, 29 April 2023
Wagner chief warns against Ukraine counterattack 'tragedy',” english.ahram.org.eg, 30 April 2023
Anna Mikhailova, “Prigozhin threatens to leave Bakhmut unless Wagner given ammunition,” 30 April 2023
David Brunnstrom and Eric Beech, “On lethal aid to Ukraine, South Korean leader says Seoul considering its options,” 29 April 2023
Leonie Kijewski and Bartosz Brzeziński, “Eastern EU countries strike deal with Commission to clear Ukrainian grain glut,” 28 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Wagner head says heavy losses in Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 29 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

HUNGARY
Pope Francis' visit to Hungary
On 30 April, Hungary saw thousands of people gathering on the Danube banks of to pray with Ukrainian refugees in Budapest for Pope Francis’ final Mass, who is known for advocating compassion towards migrants. His visit to Hungary was primarily aimed at embracing the country's large Catholic population, but he also spoke about the importance of building a united Europe. The visual highlight of his visit was the Mass held in Kossuth Lajos Square, attended by an estimated 50,000 people, including Hungary's President and Prime Minister. In his speech, Pope spoke out against rising nationalism and urged Hungarians to fight against individualism, indifference towards the underprivileged and foreign, and closed doors towards migrants and the poor. (“Pope Francis urges unity in final Mass in Hungary,” Deutsche Welle, 01 May 2023)

FRANCE
Credit rating agency Fitch announces reduction in rating amid protests
On 01 May, Le Monde reported that France is set to face more nationwide protests as it tries to move past the divisive pension law that caused widespread anger and social unrest. Moreover, France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire announced that France's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) had been reduced. He affirmed the French government's firm commitment to consolidate public finances, despite credit ratings agency Fitch downgrading the country's debt worthiness. The agency cited weak fiscal metrics, high government debt, expenditure rigidities and social and political pressures, as reflected in the protests the pension reform bill, as high drivers for the rating. In response, Maire insisted that the decision was not a fair reflection of the facts and pledged to continue to pass structural reforms for the country. However, Fitch warned that these protests would complicate fiscal consolidation in France in future and could further strengthen radical and anti-establishment forces. Despite this, France's retirement age will remain among the lowest in the developed countries, even after the pension reform raises it from 62 to 64. (“Macron faces Labor Day protests,” Le Monde, 01 May 2023; “France pledges 'structural reforms' after Fitch downgrade,” Deutsche Welle, 29 April 2023)

REGIONAL
Ukraine foreign ministry complains on agricultural imports amid war challenges
On 29 April, the Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry sent a formal note to the Polish and EU representatives, claiming the restrictions contravened the association agreement between Kyiv and the EU, as well as the EU Single Market norms. Ukraine has lodged a formal complaint against Poland over restrictions on the import of its agricultural products, as the conflict in the country has affected transportation routes. Recently, Poland and other neighboring countries imposed temporary trade barriers on grains and other goods, following protests by local farmers over a drop in the prices of their produce. Grain exports are vital to Ukraine's economy, accounting for a significant proportion of the world's wheat, corn, and barley markets. The EU has reached a preliminary agreement with Ukraine's neighbors, including Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, to withdraw any unilateral measures against Ukrainian produce in exchange for a €100m support package for affected farmers.(“Ukraine protests 'unacceptable' Warsaw agricultural bans,” Deutsche Welle, 29 April 2023)

ECONOMY
UK microchip company proposes to sell shares in the US
On 01 May, BBC News reported on the submission of an application by Arm, a UK microchip designing company to sell its shares in the US, which could lead to the largest stock market listing this year, aiming to raise up to USD 10 billion. Arm's designs are used by household brands such as Apple and Samsung, and chip manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, to build their own processors. Despite being considered the "crown jewel" of the UK's technology sector, it decided not to pursue a London Stock Exchange listing, raising concerns over the UK market's ability to attract tech company stock offerings. Moreover, Softbank, which suffered losses due to the declining valuations of its investments in technology start-ups, is pushing ahead with the multi-billion dollar sale of Arm, subject to market conditions. (Mariko Oi, “UK chip giant Arm files for blockbuster US share listing,” BBC News, 01 May 2023) 


28 April 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #499

War in Ukraine: Day 428

Putin emphasizes on producing UAVs

Photo : Артём Геодакян, ТАСС


War in Ukraine Day: 428
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 27 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on attacks in Mykolaiv city. Missile attacks are observed to have been launched from the Black Sea, killing more than 23 civilians and destroying residential buildings. Mykolaiv city is known for its shipbuilding and consists a population of 470,000 before the war began. Till Russia has denied the accusations of attacking residential buildings.

On 27 April, Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on the phone conversation with Pope Francis. The discussion focused on establishing a way to execute Zelenskyy’s “peace formula.” In response, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia welcomed “anything” to settle the conflict.  

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 27 April, Kremlin reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Rudnevo, an industrial zone of Russia. The visit aimed to examine the UAV production along with operators of unmanned aerial systems. A meeting was held by Putin with the representatives of the UAV producing organisations. During the meeting, Putin highlighted the importance of UAV production and the need to push investment from 500 billion roubles to a trillion. 

On 27 April, Kremlin reported on Putin’s meeting with Russia’s Association of Fertilizer Producers, the head on fertilizer production. According to the report, Russia had overtaken the US and India and stays in second place after China with an increase of 40 per cent in its output. Despite the increase in production, the exports had reduced by 15 per cent due to the Black Sea block. The report highlighted how the Ukraine Grain deal had been extended many times while Russia’s demand to export its agricultural and fertilizer products still remain unattended. On the same, Putin said: “Sanctions were imposed by countries that do not particularly need our fertilizers, and the developing markets now suffer from it.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 27 April, tensions over the extension of the grain deal emerged as Russia warns of rejecting the extension if its previous demands are not met. On the same, Germany’s Agricultural Minister Cem Özdemir asked Russia to stick to the deal as Ukraine’s grain exports were key to Global South and Ukraine survival in the war. He said: “Russia wants to let the agreement expire already in mid-May — 60 days … Putin is accepting the loss of human life for his criminal war of aggression.”

On 27April, Council of Europe’s, Parliamentary assembly which is responsible for ensuring human rights and the rule of law passed a resolution stating children who were forcibly deported from Ukraine will be considered in a Genocide. Earlier, ICC issue of warrant against Putin under charges of “abducting children” have also added pressure on Russia.
 

References
Russia overtakes US in fertilizer production – official,” RT, 27 April 2023
Visit to the industrial park "Rudnevo",” Kremlin.ru, 27 April 2023
Meeting with the President of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers Andrey Guryev,” Kremlin.ru, 27 April 2023
Presentation of organizations in the field of unmanned aircraft systems,” Kremlin.ru, 27 April 2023
Ukraine updates: PM tells pope call with Xi was productive,” Deutsche Welle, 27 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

FINLAND
Orpo announces a coalition bid; negotiations remain to be settled
On 27 April, Finland’s National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo announced his bid to join the Finns Party, the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats to form a coalition government. Orpo said: “We really have big challenges ahead, we have to make difficult decisions, we have to make savings, we have to make reforms but I think they can be done and with this combination I think we can do it.” After the announcement, the negotiation between the parties will take place, if successful it will ensure 108 seats in the parliament replacing Sanna Marin’s government. The key challenge remains as consensus over immigration, asylum, and skilled workers differ. (“Finland's election winner seeks coalition with far-rightDeutsche Welle, 27 April 2023

HUNGARY
Pope Francis to meet Orban and Ukrainian refugees
On 28 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the schedule of Pope Francis in Hungary for next three days. During the visit, the pope is expected to meet the Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban to discuss on the Ukraine war, migration, and Hungary’s equation with the EU. Orban tweeted: “In troubled times like ours, it is essential to remember what keeps us together, and faith is the foundation upon which we can build a stable future.”  Pope is also expected to meet Hungary’s President, Katalin Novak and to later meet 35,000 Ukrainian refugees in Hungary.

CLIMATE CHANGE
Spain’s extreme temperatures impact farmers and the low income class
On 27 April, BBC reported on Spain’s latest temperature record of 38.8 degree Celsius. Spain’s meteorological service stated that the temperature had increased by 10 to 15 degrees which was hotter than predicted. The reason behind the heatwave was due to mass air from Africa, along with climate change. Increased temperatures are also due to reduced capacity of reservoirs and the ground ability to absorb heat as its already in drought condition. The impact of the heat has been felt among the low-income class, farmers, and land owners who have not been able to tackle due to financial risks and drawbacks. (Matt McGrath & Guy Hedgecoe, “Climate change: Spain breaks record temperature for April,” BBC, 27 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Turkey reports fire on its evacuation plane
On 28 April, Turkey’s Defence Ministry reported fire on its evacuation plane in Sudan’s airbase, Wadi Saidna. According to the report, no one was injured. Sudan’s army criticised the Rapid Support Fighters (RSF) for firing at the plane’s fuel system, while the RSF denied the accusation. On 27 April, “rival military factions” agreed for an extension of the ceasefire, which did not last long as RSF positions were attacked with army jets. According to Turkey’s Defence Minister, the evacuation attempts will continue to help Turkish out from Sudan. (“Sudan crisis: Turkish evacuation plane fired on,” BBC, 28 April 2023)


27 April 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #498

War in Ukraine: Day 427

Telephone conversation between China’s President Xi Jinping and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Photo : AFP-JIJI


War in Ukraine Day: 427
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 26 April, in the phone conversation held between China’s President Xi Jinping and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Xi reiterated that China will be “on the side of peace.” He stressed China’s position to promote negotiations and assured to send representatives to hold talks with the parties to the conflict. China published a 12-point position paper in February indicating it as a “neutral mediator in the Ukraine war along with mentioning “no limit” to its relations with Russia. Zelenskyy remarked the call as “long and meaningful.” France, and Germany welcomed the phone conversation as a positive signal. France said: “..encourages all dialogue that contributes to a resolution of the conflict [in Ukraine] in accordance with the fundamental interests of Ukraine and international law.”

On 26 April, Ukraine’s Presidential Office Spokesperson Andriy Yermak reported in his Telegram account on the exchange of prisoners. During the exchange, 42 soldiers and two civilians had been brought back, while Russia’s Defence Ministry reported the return of 40 Russian soldiers from Ukraine. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 26 April, Russia’s Ambassador to the UN, Gennady Gatilov, complained over insufficient progress in fulfilling Russia’s condition in exchange for the grain deal. According to him, despite the UN efforts, Russia’s demands to allow its Agricultural Bank reconnect with Swift payment, freeing the supplies of agricultural machinery, spare parts, granting insurance for its ships and access to foreign ports have remained standstill. Gatilov said: “I don't know whether they will be able to achieve sufficient progress in the time left.”

On 26 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry criticised Ukraine’s government for undermining the efforts towards negotiations to settle the conflict. In a statement: “The Ukrainian authorities and their Western minders have already shown their ability to mess up any peace initiatives.” Highlighting China’s attempts to establish the peace talks, it blamed the Ukraine government for rejecting it.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 26 April, Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, asked the EU allies to fasten Ukraine’s membership process. The remark comes after the bilateral conference held between the Italy and Ukraine business in an effort to plan for reconstruction. Meloni said: “The future of Ukraine must include an always wider capacity of integrating with the European dynamics and institutions.” Appreciating Ukraine’s efforts to “reform its system,” she stressed that it should be given an opportunity to become part of the EU.

On 26 April, the US General Christopher Cavoli assured on Ukraine receiving arms from the US on time to help its counteroffensive. He highlighted that 98 per cent of the combat vehicles pledged for Ukraine had been delivered. He added: “I am very confident that we have delivered the material that they need, and we'll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well.”

On 26 April, the Czech Republic’s Foreign Minister announced a sanction on Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill due to his support for the Ukraine war. Kirill’s public remarks in support of the war, which has made the acts committed by the Russian forces acceptable has been taken as evidence to impose sanctions.

References
Joseph Ataman, “France “encourages all dialogue” over Ukraine,” egyptindependent, 26 April 2023
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on April 27, 2023,” my.china-embassy.gov.cn/, 27 April 2023
Partners have delivered over 98% of combat vehicles promised to Kyiv – Supreme Allied Commander Europe,” pravda.com.ua, 26 April 2023
Czechs put Russian Patriarch Kirill on sanctions list over Ukraine,” Reuters, 26 April 2023
Kiev unlikely to appreciate calls for peace regardless of China’s efforts — Russia's MFA,” TASS, 26 April 2023
Ukraine updates: China wants peace talks, Xi tells Zelenskyy,” Deutsche Welle, 26 April 2023


24 April 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #495

Pentagon leaked documents: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Takeaways | War in Ukraine Day: 423 & 424

Photo :


EM COMMENT
Pentagon leaked documents: Russia-Ukraine Conflict a Tactical Lens
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 19 April, The Wall Street Journal reported on the leak of classified documents after it found four documents on Telegram account named “Donbass Devushka.” The leak is considered to have released from “Discord” a messaging platform in January which was reposted in a gaming platform leading to a mass leak. Of the leaked documents, the critical intelligence data on Ukraine military, position of Russia’s forces and involvement of third-parties in the military aid has come out as shocking revelations. The following takeaways aims to bring out the key findings or fill the gaps from the leaked data comparing the proceedings of the war.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens: Four takeaways
First, a negative prediction for Ukraine’s air force and counteroffensive. The document leak confirmed that Ukraine is fighting with limited air defence systems. Since 2023, Ukraine began demanding modern aviation and fighter jets which can change the gears from defensive to offensive. It faces a threat of exhaustion of medium to high-range air-defence systems (S-300, SA-3, and SA-12) such as IRIS-T by March, SA-11 by April, and NASAMS by May 2023. Additionally, the inability to match the “Russian air superiority,” and increased usage of SA-10, while SA-11 depletes. It claims the increased capability of Russia in ariel manoeuvring and improved accuracy in “long-range munitions.”  

Second, fragility and frustration in the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF). The maps in the leaked documents disclose the vulnerable position of the Ukraine forces in the southwest, northern, eastern, and southern. It confirms the Russian encirclement of the Bakhmut, leaving out West of Bakhmut, the only supply route for UAF subject to attacks. The document also confirms the defeat of Ukraine's forces in the north, forcing it to withdraw from Berkhivka resulting in the loss of the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) between Bakhmut and the M-03 highway. This highway is considered essential for Ukraine as it connects to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, losing the GLOC would challenge its ground force operation. To ease the difficult position in the Bakhmut, Ukraine plans to involve Shaman or Kraken units of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) for a maximum of two weeks. In the battle of Bakhmut as per the leaked documents, clashes have emerged between the UAF and Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), as UAF demands only the “combat element” of the HUR units without its “command and control.” HUR Officer has criticized the UAF leadership for asking only for combat as it mandates a “clear ground control” to reduce the complexities faced by Ukraine forces and to secure Yahidne (located in the centre of Bakhmut, another side of Berkhivka). Securing Yahidne is crucial for Ukraine as it is predicted to host an important supply road for Ukraine.

Third, third-party entities and the US allies' role in military support and strengthening. Throughout the war, Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of receiving support from external actors. On the one hand, the US, the EU, and NATO allies have been supporting Ukraine. On the other, Belarus and Iran have been supporting Russia. The leak has exposed the involvement of other actors in the conflict and revealed the military exercises conducted by NATO allies in a 24-48 hours span. The documents confirm the transfer of the Iskander-M division, and Russia’s air defence units into Belarus to launch an offensive into Ukraine. This shows Belarus’s approval to switch from training to launching an offensive into Ukraine from its territory. In the case of South Korea, it has faced pressure from the US to send ammunition to Ukraine. To avoid the public debate of it adhering to US’s demand, it has tried to circumvent its support through Poland, although Poland’s reaction was yet to be verified. For Israel, which has so far agreed to provide non-lethal aid to Ukraine, the documents reveal the possibility of different scenarios which can prompt it to provide lethal aid to Ukraine. Especially under the pressure of the US, a shift in Russia’s behaviour in Syria and its relations with Iran. Apart from this, the most surprising element would be the engagement of the “joint staff” of the US, the UK, France, Latvia, and the Netherlands in Ukraine. The joint land, sea, and air military exercises held between the southeast Flank of Europe, NATO allies, and numerous training camps held by the US, Germany, and Netherlands for UAF showcase the intensity and depths of military strengthening.

Fourth, a grim overview of Russia in the battle for Donbas. When Russia began the war, the first step was to proclaim Donetsk and Luhansk regions as its republics. The war later north and south of Ukraine created an inverted “c.” This area coming under Russia’s control announced the annexation of the republics along with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson despite Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in Kherson. As a result of Russia’s determination to counter Ukraine’s defence, challenges in terms of logistics, command control, and personnel emerged. The same has been validated by the leaked documents. It states that due to Russia’s decision to involve the forces from the self-proclaimed republics, the Wagner Group, its private military security along with the Russian forces in different tactical attacks has led to exhaustion. Therefore, predicting a difficult recovery of Russian forces and replenishment of stocks, resulted in a “stalemate” beyond 2023.


War in Ukraine Day: 423 & 424
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 22 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that new fighting units are preparing brigades and units for the counteroffensive. The aim of his meeting have focused on taking all steps for “de-occupation” of its territories from Russia’s hold. Ukraine which has been fighting the war past 14 months, the Western allies met in the US Ramstein Air Base to discuss on giving aid to Ukraine.

On 22 April, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister Andrew Melnyk tweeted that Ukraine was thankful for the military aid received till now, but has not been enough for Ukraine. He expressed the need of 10 times of such military aid to counter Russia’s aggression in 2023. He asked the allies to “cross all the artificial red lines” and give Ukraine “powerful arms,” at least one per cent of their GDP.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 22 April, Russia announced that it will be expelling more than 20 German Diplomats as a counter move for Germany expelling Russian Diplomats. On the same Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson in telegram said: “..mass expulsion of employees of Russian diplomatic missions in Germany.” was in response to Germany’s move. The news agency of Germany DPA reported on a permission being granted a diplomatic permission to Russia’s aircraft, without mentioning the actual reason.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 22 April, Latvia’s Defence Ministry after the Ramstein talks announced to deliver all of its Stringer anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. The missile which are in its armed forces hold will be given to Ukraine to adhere to its demand for more air defence systems. Although the time of delivery of the missiles, and number was not disclosed, intense training of the Ukrainian soldiers is also expected to take place.

On 22 April, Deutsche Welle reported on Spain’s delivery of its first batch of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Six Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks are in transit along with 20 light armoured transport vehicles. Another four battle tanks are expected to be delivered later.

On 23 April, in an intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on Russia’s new recruitment efforts. A new set of ads have been launched to be relayed in TV, billboards and social media to recruit volunteers for military. The Ministry predicts that Russia can achieve attracting 400,000 volunteers in this. It also observed the cautiousness of Russia in delaying a mandatory mobilization to avoid public dissent.

On 23 April, think tank of the US, Institute for the Study of War observed advance made by the Ukraine Armed Forces in the eastern bank of Dnipro River in Kherson. The area which was partially withdrawn by Russia in November, the advance of Ukraine indicate a weakening grip of Russia.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war

On 22 April, IAEA Director Rafael Grossi issued a warning over a possible nuclear accident in Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. He confirmed the military operations near the plant and nuclear experts have recorded explosion near the site. This has created a concerning situation. 

On 23 April, G7 Ministers called for an “expansion” of the deal for Ukraine to export grains through Black Sea. Earlier Moscow had signalled to not allow the extension of the deal more than 18 May. During the communique in Japan, the G7 Ministers expressed a strong support for the extension of the deal beyond May and expansion into the Black Sea. In a statement: “We condemn Russia's attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as a tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia's weaponization of food.”

References
President Zelensky: Now we all need to stay united, mobilized and fully focused on defense,” Ukrinform, 21 April 2023
Andrij Melnyk,” Twitter, 22 April 2023
Russia announces ‘reciprocal’ expulsion of German diplomats,” Aljazeera, 22 April 2023
Minister: Latvia to send Ukraine all its Stinger air defense systems,” The Kyiv Independent, 21 April 2023
The first batch of Leopard 2 from Spain is already on its way to Ukraine,” mil.in.ua, 23 April 2023
Ukraine updates: China envoy criticized over Crimea remarks,” Deutsche Welle, 23 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia to expel German diplomats,” Deutsche Welle, 23 April 2023


21 April 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #493

War in Ukraine: Day 421

Russian, a toxic pattern that must be stopped: NATO Chief

Photo : nato.int


War in Ukraine: Day 421
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 20 April, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during the visit of the NATO Chief, stressed how a majority of the Ukrainians support joining NATO and that it was the right time to decide. He also requested help to handle the challenges posed by allies in sending specific weapons - "long-range, modern aviation, and armoured vehicles."
 
On 20 April, Ukraine claimed destroying 21 such drones along with "55 ground attacks." The fight in Bakhmut is also observed to be intense fighting increasing day by day. 
 
On 20 April, Kyiv city Mayor, announced the termination of the "land lease deal" held with Russia. This means Russia will have to return the property. According to the Mayor, the appeal by the Cabinet of Ministers had been put forward to Russia to return the "diplomatic establishment" to Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 20 April, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during his meeting with Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega criticised the role of the US and its allies in thriving their "hegemony" in the Ukraine conflict. According to Ortega: "Today, the United States sanctioned three judges because they have applied justice against terrorists. We already have hundreds of fellow state officials sanctioned, but we are no longer afraid of that." The reason for the criticism was the US announcement on sanctioning three Nicaraguan judges for taking away the citizenship of opponent party members.
 
On 20 April, in response to the NATO Chief's visit, Russia's spokesperson stated that Russia sees Ukraine's NATO membership as a threat and will lead to serious security danger.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

 On 20 April, NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Ukraine for first time since the war. On the question of Ukraine joining NATO, Stoltenberg said that its accession would be a priority in its agenda in the upcoming July summit. He added: "Ukraine's future is in the Euro-Atlantic family, Ukraine's future is in NATO, all allies agree on that." The surprise visit was due to Ukraine's ongoing preparation for the "Spring counteroffensive." In his address, he highlighted that EUR 150 billion support being provided by NATO allies and training help to the soldiers. Although the time period of the war was unknown he stressed that Russia's aggression has to be "stopped."
 
On 20 April, POLITICO reported on Denmark and Netherlands' announcement of sending 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Netherlands' Defence Minister stated that Ukraine's determined fight against Russia had given it a strong motivation to support it continuously. The tanks are estimated to cost EUR 165 million and are expected to deliver by early 2024.
 
On 20 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the end of the Petersburg Dialogue. The aim of the dialogue was to identify issues relating to civil society groups, think tanks and decision makers from Germany and Russia. This was formed to pursue a different channel of dialogue with Russia.
 
On 20 April, Estonia's Defence Minister announced to send 155 mm ammunition to Ukraine. This will be under the EU agreement to send one million rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. In a statement, the Minister said: "The Estonian initiative to send a million rounds to Ukraine was approved by the EU institutions with unprecedented speed and now Ukraine needs quick decisions from its European Allies to make sure these rounds reach Ukraine."

References
"Secretary General in Kyiv: NATO stands with Ukraine," NATO, 20 April 2023
"Lavrov conveys Putin's greetings to Nicaraguan president," TASS, 20 April 2023
"Those seeking to shake situation in Nicaragua from outside were defeated, says Lavrov," TASS, 20 April 2023
Wilhelmine Preussen, “More Leopards for Ukraine: Denmark, Netherlands to send 14 tanks,” POLITICO, 20 April 2023
"Estonia sending more ammunition to Ukraine," ERR News, 20 April 2023
"Ukraine updates: NATO chief makes surprise visit to Kyiv," Deutsche Welle, 20 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

THE UK
Deputy Prime Minister resigns over allegations of bullying civil servants 
On 21 April, UK's Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab resigned from the government over bullying allegations. Earlier, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tasked a senior lawyer to investigate eight formal complaints from many civil servants over Raab's conduct during his role as Justice Secretary, Foreign Secretary, and Brexit Secretary. Although Raab denied bullying, accepted to resign if evidence was found. The details of the investigation report are yet to be disclosed, but more than the resignation, questions have arisen over why Sunak did not ask him to resign. This has created a weaker image of Sunak on the governance of the Tory Party. ("LIVEDominic Raab resigns over bullying report," BBC, 21 April 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Spain faces worst drought conditions due to increased temperatures
On 19 April, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez remarked the drought situation as an "emergency." In 2022, the temperatures have increased to 1.3 degrees, highest since 1960 and by 2023 it has increased to 1.6 degrees. Of all area's Catalonia has been observed to be the most affected and in past three years the water level in northern Catalonia had reduced to 27 per cent. Similarly, in L'Espluga de Francoli, people have been saving water ahead to tackle through water rationing. The key reason behind the drought condition was due to worsening climate change resulting in increased water evaporation. ("Spain's drought a 'national concern,' PM says," Deutsche Welle, 19 April 2023) 

INTERNATIONAL
Macron and Biden call brings out the difference over sharing responsibilities in transatlantic security
On 20 April, French President Emmanuel Macron held a call with US President Joe Biden to discuss the "geopolitical vision." Macron stressed on Europe's "Strategic autonomy policy" to keep away from the crisis that are not related to Europe and called to be a "third pole" in the context of the US and China. He added: "Being an ally does not mean being a vassal." In response, the White House release a statement highlighted on assuring peace and stability across Taiwan Strait and discussion of shared values among the both. In a statement released by the Elysee Palace: "The importance of European countries continuing to re-arm themselves in order to take on their responsibilities in sharing the burden of transatlantic security."

US assures security guarantee for Sweden; Urged Turkey and Hungary to ratify soon
On 19 April, US Secretary of Defence, Llyod Austin in the meeting with Sweden's Defence Secretary Pal Jonson assured US's support to fasten Sweden's membership into NATO. Turkey and Hungary which are yet to ratify, are expected to approve before NATO summit in July. He promised for security assurance to Sweden and urged Turkey and Hungary to ratify soon. The visit also marked for discussion on defence cooperation to ease the US military support process. According to Jonson: "It could be about tariffs and taxes. It could be about pre-stocking of defence material, but it is too early to say." (Charles Szumski, "US urges Turkey, Hungary to ratify Swedish NATO application before summer," EURACTIV, 20 April 2023)


20 April 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #492

War in Ukraine, Day 420

Germany, and Portugal deliver advanced missile systems aligning with the pledge

Photo : Kacper Pempel/REUTERS


War in Ukraine: Day 420
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 19 April, the surprise drone attacks in Odesa were reported by Ukraine's forces. Although no causalities were observed, according to Odesa district military administration, the attacks have been carried out through Shahed-136 UAVs. The drone is known for being programmed to target using a "payload of explosives." The report states that the Russian setback in replacing its damaged drones due to sanctions has pushed it to depend on foreign weapon systems. Ukraine's South Operational Command Chief said: "They were flying trying to avoid detection, exploiting landscape peculiarities. They still try to deceive our anti-aircraft defenses and locate the launchers."

On 19 April, Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov confirmed the receipt of the first patriot defence system from Germany. The patriot system is armed in combat enemy aircraft, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and of all it is observed to be advanced. He said: "Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defence systems have arrived in Ukraine."

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 April, DPR leader Denis Pushilin met Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko to discuss bilateral cooperation. Belarus has been maintaining close relations with Russia since the war; Pushilin expressed interest in cooperating over equipment, tractors, construction products and furniture. 

On 19 April, in response to South Korean President’s announcement to send weapons to Ukraine, the former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning. He said that what would be a response of South Korea when it sees Russian-manufactured weapons in North Korea. Russia's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "Unfortunately, Seoul has taken a rather unfriendly position in this whole story."

On 19 April, RT reported on WSJ article on the challenges faced by the US manufacturers in building missiles for Ukraine. According to the report, due to difficulty in obtaining rocket motors, the production target has been logged back. Despite the US not disclosing the exact count of GMLRS projectiles sent to Ukraine, as per Reuter's investigation, close to 5000 had been delivered. Due to the delay in the production of artillery and guided missile, Ukraine has been observed to be facing a shortage in sustaining its artillery rounds.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 19 April, the European Commission proposed to offer EUR 100 million to help farmers in the EU countries bordering Ukraine. Under the plan, Hungary and Poland will be covered, as they began to impose ban on import of Ukraine's grain, according to the Commission, the proposal will also include measures to impose restrictions on "wheat, maize, sunflower seeds and rape seed." The move comes due to the accumulation of Ukraine's agricultural products in EU member states in the process of export to other countries. Along with others, Bulgaria has also joined in the import ban against Ukraine.

On 19 April, Nordic country's joint journalistic investigation reported suspicious Russian vessels to be spying on the Scandinavian peninsula. In the report, the investigation team stated that close to 50 such ships were found to be spying their windfarms, gas pipelines, electricity and internet cables. The men in the ships were observed to be masked, and armed.

On 19 April, the Pentagon announced its additional military aid worth USD 325 million to Ukraine. The package includes HIMARS rocket systems, anti-armour systems, and nine million rounds of small arms and artillery rounds. This totals to USD 36 billion of total military aid given by the US. Similarly, Germany and Portugal fulfilling its pledge, delivered 21 Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks together. According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz: "What's needed now is essentially more of the same," referring to the need of battle tanks, ammunition, and anti-aircraft systems. 

References
"Ukraine Army spox explains purpose of Russia's latest drone attack on Odesa," Ukrinform, 19 April 2023
"
Medvedev cautions South Korea against weapons supplies to Kiev," TASS, 19 April 2023
"
US military industry struggling to meet Ukraine demand – WSJ," RT, 19 April 2023
Jari Tanner, "
Nordic news outlets: Russian yachts, cargo ships spy at sea," ap news, 19 April 2023
"
US announces $325 mln in new arms aid for Ukraine, including HIMARS ammo," Reuters, 20 April 2023
"
Ukraine updates: Germany says Patriots delivered to Kyiv," Deutsche Welle, 19 April 2023


19 April 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #491

War in Ukraine, Day 419

Poland and Ukraine sign deal to allow export of grains through its territory

Photo : REUTERS/Igor Tkachenko/File Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 419
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 18 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the forces in Avdiivka to know the battlefield situation. The city has been under Russia’s target since its winter offensive, but has been able to make only little advance. In the video released by the President’s office shows the awards being presented to the soldiers and the heavily damaged residential building. According to the report, only 1,800 civilians are present in the area currently.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 April, Kremlin reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s visit to southern Kherson and eastern Luhansk. The visit comes as Ukraine is observed to be getting ready for new counteroffensive in the self-proclaimed areas by Russia.

On 18 April, TASS reported on usage of a facial recognition system by Russia to track young men who would be eligible for military service. Since the signing of the conscription law, the measures have become narrow for those trying to avoid the service. According to the report: “To determine the place of residence of the conscript, video surveillance systems in the city of Moscow are being used.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 18 April, Poland which was the first to ban Ukraine’s grain imports, struck a deal with it set a system to ensure no backlog of grains remained in Poland. Through signing of the deal, the grains will be transited into Poland for exporting to other place, but will not stagnate its market. According to the spokesperson Miriam Garcia: “The main purpose of the solidarity routes was to provide Ukraine with alternative routes for the export of agricultural products and other products, guaranteeing the functioning of the Ukrainian economy in the context of the blockade of the Black Sea ports.”

On 18 April, in the row of ban on Ukraine’s grain imports, Romania has joined stating it would ask for an immediate decree to impose a temporary ban. The move comes as the increasing internal pressure to safeguard their agricultural markets.

On 18 April, Poland’s Interior Minister announced the construction of an electronic barrier in the land border shared with Russia. The barrier is aimed to carry out 24 hours monitoring, extending to 210 kilometers.

References
Ukraine updates: Putin visits troops in Kherson, Luhansk,” Deutsche Welle, 18 April 2023
Magdalena Partyla, “
Polish-Ukrainian grain agreement. EC reaction,” rmf24.pl, 18 April 2023
Romania next European state to consider Ukraine grain import ban,” Daily Sabah, 18 April 2023
Zelenskyy visits frontline troops in Ukraine’s besieged Avdiivka,” efe.com, 18 April 2023
Vladimir Putin visited the Headquarters of the Dnepr Group of Forces and Vostok National Guard Headquarters,” Kremlin.ru, 18 April 2023
Russia Says Surveillance System Helping to Find Draft Dodgers,” Moscow Times, 18 April 2023


18 April 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #490

War in Ukraine, Day 418

EU condemns Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for banning grain imports from Ukraine

Photo : European Commission


War in Ukraine, Day 418:
EU condemns Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for banning grain imports from Ukraine

By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 17 April, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry stated that Ukraine drones will be able to fly now to Moscow and more further. The Ministry also met with the US Department of Defence to discuss on strengthening bilateral relations in defence collaboration. On the same day, the Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malier observed the situation in Bakhmut. He said: “The enemy's offensive in the east continues. Bakhmut and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.” The shelling in Bakhmut is on peak with heavy artillery, damaging all the buildings in the city.

On 17 April, Ukraine forces General Staff, Oleksiy Reznikov reported on continuing attacks in Bakhmut and Marjinka by Russia’s forces. He provided an estimate of 182,000 Russian soldiers to have died in the war.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin welcomed China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu. During the meeting, Putin stated that the discussion had focussed on cooperation on useful information, military-technical, and joint military exercises. He said: “Undoubtedly, this is another crucial area that strengthens the extremely trusting, strategic nature of our relations.”

On 17 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister in the meeting with Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira expressed Russia’s interest to end the Ukraine soon. He appreciated Brazil for understanding the situation.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 April, Slovakia’s Defence Ministry announced the delivery of 13 MiG-29 fighter jets, which was earlier promised to Ukraine. Along with Poland, Slovakia pledged to give jets and urged the other EU countries for a “fighter het coalition.”

On 17 April, in response to the grain import ban by Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia the European Commission expressed its objection. Commission’s spokesperson Miriam Garcia stated that the EU member states cannot decide its trade policy by its own. She said: “In such challenging times, it is crucial to coordinate and align all decisions within the EU.” While Poland and Hungary countered stating the competition its local farmers faced, Slovakia took a similar decision over pesticides.

The Global Fallouts 
Implication of the War

On 16 April, China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu after the meeting with Putin highlighted the importance of relation shared between China and Russia. He said that the equation goes above military and political alliance during the cold war and it was very stable.

On 17 April, the G7 Foreign Ministers released a statement assuring support to Ukraine. The Japan Foreign Ministry, in its statement said: “Committed to intensifying, fully coordinating and enforcing sanctions against Russia.” It also criticised Russia for transferring nuclear tactical weapons to Belarus. The Ministers also vowed to coordinate to prevent Russia from circumventing the sanctions imposed. During the meeting, the G7 group also signed an agreement to block Russia from getting access to nuclear energy market.

References
US, Ukraine defense ministers discuss current situation at front,” Ukrinform, 17 April 2023
In Bakhmut sector, enemy increases number of airstrikes, artillery attacks – Defense Ministry,” Ukrinform, 17 April 2023
Putin meets with Chinese defense minister,” RT, 16 April 2023
Ukrainian drones can reach Moscow and further – Budanov,” Ukrinform, 17 April 2023
G7 members seek to push Moscow out of nuclear energy market,” RT, 17 April 2023
Kiev gives rough information on the number of its own losses,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 17 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Chinese defense minister meets with Putin,” Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

CZECH REPUBLIC

Protestors gather for second time demanding for the resignation of the government
On 16 April, Associated Press reported on a rally in Prague by thousands of people protesting against inflation. They demanded for the resignation of the government. Earlier a similar rally took place on 11 March organised by a latest found political party under “against the poverty” slogan. The protestors blamed the EU, and the Czech government for the inflation and called for the resignation. (“Thousands turn out for anti-government protest in Prague,” AP News, 16 April 2023)

SCOTLAND

ONS reports drop-in unemployment rate
On 18 April, Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on the reduction in the unemployment rate in Scotland. According to the report the rate was at three per cent between December and February, which was lowest since 1992. The difference would 75.7 per cent below the UKs rate. It also showed an annual growth in the regular pay which marked at 6.6 per cent. According to Wellbeing Economy Secretary Neil Gray: “Certain industries still face recruitment challenges so we are continuing to call on UK ministers to establish a joint taskforce on labour market shortages.” (“Unemployment in Scotland falls to record low,” BBC, 18 April 2023)

THE UK

Rishi Sunak to be investigated on declaration of interest
On 17 April, BBC reported on the upcoming investigation of the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak by the Parliamentary standard watchdog. According to the report, the investigation will be carried out under para six of the MPs code of conduct. It is aimed to find if his “declaration of interest was open and frank.” Relating to the childcare where shares are owned by Rishi Sunak’s wife. The investigation body will analyse if any rule has been breached after the enquiry. It is considered serious when breached which may lead to the suspension from the “House of Commons.” Sunak stated that his wife’s interest was already declared and will ensure to take steps to prevent “any potential conflict of interest.” (Vicki Young & Joshua Nevett, “Rishi Sunak investigated over declaration of interest,” BBC, 17 April 2023)

REGIONAL

Sweden to hold joint military exercise to prepare ahead for a possible attack in future
On 17 April, Sweden’s Armed Forces announced its launch of largest military exercise called “Aurora 23.” The exercise will include soldiers from the US, the UK, France, Germany and Nordic countries. It is aimed to train for a probable armed attack on Sweden. According to the Armed Forces: “Together with military units from our partner countries we build security and, concurrently, reinforce the Swedish operational capability.” In the exercise, uniformed soldiers, land vehicles will go around the base and airports. (“Sweden starts largest military exercise in over 25 years,” Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2023)


17 April 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #489

War in Ukraine, Day 416 & 417: Bakhmut: Russia claims to control of two more areas

Photo : Kai Pfaffenbach/ Reuters


War in Ukraine, Day 416 & 417:
Bakhmut: Russia claims to control of two more areas

By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 15 April, in his address, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accused Russia of targeting residential buildings in Sloviansk. According to the report, 11 were killed and 20 were injured, and Russian forces have been observed in both Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

On 15 April, during the fight in Bakhmut, the UK Defence Intelligence observed that Ukraine was forced to withdraw due to the “renewed assault.” Russia also accused Ukraine for destroying infrastructure during its withdrawal to slow Russia’s forces. While the Ukraine forces denied the Wagner Group claims of capturing 80 per cent of the city.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 April, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported on the Wagner Group’s progress in capturing two more areas in Bakhmut. It said: “Wagner assault units have successfully advanced, capturing two districts on the northern and southern outskirts of the city.”

On 16 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, in a meeting, asked the Russian billionaires and the elite to make more investments in new technology, production and enterprises. The statement comes as Russia faces “sanction war.” Since many Western firms have been observed to be exiting from Russia, adding pressure on it, Putin thanked those who have stayed till now to sustain its economy.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 15 April, Deutsche Welle reported on Finland’s construction of a fence in its southeast border. One of the border guard estimated that close to three kilometres of fence and called it a “significant part of border control.”

On 15 April, Poland’s ruling party Head, Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced the ban to import Ukraine grain. The move comes to protect the farmer, as part of the grain supply was accumulating in Eastern Europe resulting in the drop in prices. He said: “Today the government decided on a regulation to ban the entry, imports of grain into Poland, as well as of dozens of other kinds of food.”

On 16 April, Sweden's government released a statement on its deal with the UK to sell 14 of its Archer mobile cannon system. On the same, the UK said, the purchase would help replace its 32 AS90 artillery systems. The system developed by Sweden, would be a fully automated howitzer with a provision for guns that can be operated from distance.

On 16 April, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced further arms support to Ukraine. He said that it was necessary to send the ammunition at right time. After the announcement, Olaf added that it would further discuss with the European Council to improve the support.

The Global Fallouts 
Implication of the War

On 16 April, the UN’s investigative body reported that Russia had committed “wilful killings, torture and deportation of children.” According to the investigators, there was no proof of genocide, but some aspects had indicated relating to that crime. The report published by the UN body was carried out with the help of 500 interviews, satellite images and site visit. The ICC aims to arrest the responsible Russians for deporting the children by force and damaging civilian infrastructure. In the report: “Russian authorities have committed numerous violations of international humanitarian law and violations of international human rights law, in addition to a wide range of war crimes.”

References
Ukraine updates: Russia committed 'wide range' of war crimes,” Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 April 2023.,” UKMOD/Twitter, 15 April 2023
Russia says Wagner 'successfully advanced' in outskirts of Bakhmut,” en.royanews.tv, 15 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy condemns deadly Sloviansk strike,” Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2023
Finland unveils first section of Russian border fence,” The Straits Times, 15 April 2023
Poland, Hungary ban Ukraine grain to protect local farms,” EURACTIV, 16 April 2023
UN report accuses Russia of war crimes in Ukraine: Torture, sexual violence, and murder revealed,” euromaidanpress, 14 April 2023


15 April 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #488

War in Ukraine, Day 415

Russia’s new conscription law to recruit through a digital platform

Photo : REUTERS/Yulia Morozova


War in Ukraine: Day 415
Russia’s new conscription law to recruit through a digital platform

By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 14 April, the Ukraine forces reported intense artillery attacks in the last “48 hours” in Bakhmut. The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed the same, which disclosed a new possibility of fresh attacks in Bakhmut due to “improved cooperation” between Russia’s Defence Ministry and the Wager Group. According to its observation, Russia’s airborne forces (VDV) had replaced Wagner Group units in northern and southern zones.

On 14 April, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal reported on a site double the size of Austria to have been mined by Russia. Germany’s Tagesschau, a news programme, also reported the same on the impact of anti-personnel landmines on Ukrainians. According to a UN report, 740 have been reported to have either dead or injured due to mines and explosions. The HRW has criticized Russia for using illegal devices posing a danger to civilians in Ukraine. It said: “..appear to have extensively scattered landmines around the Izium area.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 April, RT reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signing of new conscription law to change the provision of the mobilization. One of the fast-tracked regulations will involve the Ministry of Digital Development to collect data on people from their employers and universities. This would help identify eligible conscripts by mail and through e-platform, where once the summon is issued, the recipient has to respond within 20 days. Russia, which mandates military service for men between 18 and 27 for one year, is now changed to 21 and 30 and will apply to those who reach the bracket in 2026.

On 14 April, Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported on the completion of training of Belarus’s air force in “operation and combat” of Su-25. In a statement: “..master new ways of using modern aviation weapons, including special munitions.” However, it is unclear if the tactical nuclear weapons were part of the training.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 13 April, the EU announced sanctions on Russia’s Wagner Group for its active support in the war. This would be the second time as the Group already faces sanctions for the violation of human rights in Africa. According to the report, the Wagner Group was added “..for actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.” In a statement released by the EU: “..apply to a total of 1 473 individuals and 207 entities. Those designated are subject to an asset freeze and EU citizens and companies are forbidden from making funds available to them.”

On 14 April, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her visit to China urged Russia to “stop the war.” During the discussion with China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang, she highlighted how China’s signal to bring a solution is positive while it is also blurry why it has not taken effort to call out Russia.

On 14 April, US military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov assured that the leaked classified documents would in no way affect Kyiv’s offensive plan. He said: “This will not be able to affect the real results of the offensive operation.” The leak contains classified information on Ukraine’s fight, the US’s assessment of the war, and sensitive data on Ukraine’s military and limitations. Although the US investigators have arrested the responsible individual, the impact of the leak is yet to be observed.

The Global Fallouts 
Implication of the War

On 14 April, in the meeting with Baerbock, China’s Foreign Minister Gang mentioned how China is stubborn in not giving weapons to Russia for the Ukraine war. He said: “We do not and will not supply weapons to parties in conflict.”

On 14 April, IEA reported on stats on Russia’s oil exports. According to the report, the export had peaked three-year high in March, but the revenue had reduced by 43 per cent compared to 2022. The oil exports had increased to 8.1 million barrels a day despite sanctions, and it was mainly due to the return of economies from the pre-pandemic levels.

References
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 14 April 2023.,” UKMOD/Twitter, 14 April 2023
Putin signs new conscription law,” RT, 14 April 2023
Belarusian Air Force, Air Defense personnel complete advanced training to operate Su-25 aircraft,” eng.belta.by, 14 April 2023
Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine: Wagner Group and RIA FAN added to the EU's sanctions list,” consilium.europa.eu, 13 April 2023
Guy Davies and Ian Pannell, “
Ukraine's spy chief says 'Russia is the only beneficiary' of US intelligence leak,” ABC News, 14 April 2023
China vows not to sell arms to any party in Ukraine war,” ABC News, 14 April 2023
Despite sanctions, Russian oil exports jump to highest level in almost three years,” aninews.in, 14 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia has 're-energized' Bakhmut assault,” Deutsche Welle, 14 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
Constitutional Council rejects shared initiative referendum
On 14 April, the Constitutional Council announced its decision on the controversial pension reform proposed by Macron's government, followed by heavy protests in France as the government's plan to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64 faced opposition. The Council validated most of the pension reform itself but censored certain measures they deemed to have no place in a budget text, such as the senior index and the senior contract. The decision has not ended to the opposition's fight against the reform, and protests are expected to continue. Macron has invited unions and employers to the Elysée Palace to begin a dialogue. However, the inter-union has refused to attend before 01 May and has asked the President not to promulgate the law. The Council rejected the request for a shared initiative referendum submitted by left-wing parliamentarians, stating that the proposed bill did not constitute a reform according to Article 11 of the Constitution. However, the parliamentarians have submitted a new request for a referendum, which the Council will decide on 03 May. (Isabelle Ficek, “Pensions: the Constitutional Council confirms Emmanuel Macron, the opponents do not give up,” Les Echos, 14 April 2023)
 
THE UK

Oil spills in North Sea waters pose a threat to marine life
On 14 April, according to exclusive data obtained by BBC News, regular oil spills in UK waters over the past five years have resulted in thousands of tonnes of pollution, endangering marine life. Activists claim that the data reveals that some spills have impacted areas designated to safeguard wildlife, such as porpoises and orcas, and that 40 per cent of monitored releases were in breach of permits. The analysis of the data shows that from 2017 to 2022, approximately 22,000 metric tonnes of oil were discharged into UK waters, equivalent to 164,000 barrels. Uplift, an energy campaigning group that aims to transition from oil and gas to green energy, revealed that Dana, Repsol Sinopec, CNR, Shell, and Apache were the companies that spilled the most oil. The findings also revealed that 58 per cent of releases were allowed under government permits, threatening UK’s international leadership on marine conservation, as the UK has made major international commitments to protect UK and global oceans. (Georgina Rannard and Erwan Rivault, “North Sea oil spills exceed safe level - activists,” BBC News, 14 April 2023)

ECONOMY

Euro reaches new high as dollar weakens
On 14 April, the Euro price climbed up to USD 1.1074, as the dollar is losing ground due to the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy and positive market sentiment. This is being further fuelled by hope for a less restrictive US monetary policy and central bankers in the eurozone, indicating further interest rate hikes to combat high inflation. Additionally, the friendly market sentiment is causing safe assets like the dollar to be less in demand and giving the euro a boost, resulting in a gain of more than two per cent in trading with the US currency since 10 April 2023. (“Euro exchange rate at its highest level for more than a year,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 14 April 2023)

UK’s growth strategy gets IMF approval despite recent economic challenges
On 15 April, BBC News reported that the UK’s Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has announced that the UK's economy is back on track, and his growth strategy has been well-received at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington. However, IMF’s latest figures predict that the UK's economy will shrink by 0.3 per cent in 2023, making it one of the worst-performing economies in the world. The UK economy has only recently returned to its pre-pandemic size, following months of industrial action, price hikes, and labour shortages. The UK's financial services sector faces uncertainty following the collapse of three US banks and UBS's emergency takeover of Credit Suisse. However, Hunt is confident that regulations will adapt to support the growth of the UK's tech and life sciences industries. Hunt's predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, faced criticism at the previous IMF meeting in October, but Hunt claims the international lending body supports his efforts to put the UK economy on the right path. (Faisal Islam & Lucy Hooker, “Britain's economy is back, says chancellor,” BBC News, 15 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Joe Biden concludes Irish tour in ancestral town
On 14 April, US President, Joe Biden wrapped up his visit to Ireland by giving an emotional speech to tens of thousands of people in his ancestral town, County Mayo. In his address, he used the tale of his ancestors who left famine-stricken Ireland for liberty and opportunities in the US to convey the essence of the American dream. A crowd of 27,000 people gave Biden an enthusiastic reception, concluding his brief but action-packed visit that reemphasized his Irish identity. His trip to Ireland marked his third visit to the country since 2016 and his first as President. According to the report, his visit to Northern Ireland was politically sensitive as he marked the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement amidst the DUP power-sharing boycott. (Rory Carroll and Lisa O'Carroll, “Joe Biden ends Ireland tour with passionate address to thousands,” The Guardian, 14 April 2023)

Russian pacific fleet conducts surprise inspection
On 14 April, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that the unscheduled inspection of Russia's Pacific Fleet is aimed at increasing the country's armed forces' ability to defend against potential maritime aggression. This includes refining operational plans, preparing troops for combat actions in a short time, and working out a set of training and combat tasks in both near and far maritime zones. Specifically, the Pacific Fleet will practice repelling potential enemies' landing on the Southern Kuril islands and Sakhalin, and conduct missile launches to destroy naval strike groups and ground targets. According to Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov: “the surprise inspection of the Pacific Fleet is a routine practice to maintain combat readiness in the country's armed forces”. When asked if the inspection is related to possible NATO expansion or Japan's potential accession to the alliance, Peskov denied any connection. The purpose of the inspection is solely to increase the country's defense capabilities and preparedness against potential threats from maritime directions. (“Shoigu: Check of Pacific Fleet Aimed at Boosting Russian Ability to Repel Ocean Attack,” Sputnik, 14 April 2023)

FSB claims mass hacker attacks on Russia
On 13 April, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) accused the United States and other NATO countries of using Ukraine to carry out massive hacker attacks on Russian civilian facilities. The FSB stated that Western countries use the network infrastructure of Ukraine for offensive cyber operations, allowing them to use new types of cyber weapons. The Pentagon's joint command is also involved in preparing cyber-attacks against Russia, and the United States seeks to blame the IT Army of Ukraine group to conceal its involvement. The cyberattacks are being prepared in cooperation with international and national hacker groups, including Anonymous, Silence, Ghost Clan, RedHack, GNG, Squad 303, and others, according to the report given by FSB. (“US, Other NATO Countries Use Ukraine For Mass Hacker Attacks on Russia - FSB,” Sputnik, 114 April 2023)

BELARUS

Lukashenko proposes a coordinated transformation of Judicial Systems to CIS partners
On 14 April, during a meeting with the heads of the supreme courts of foreign countries in Minsk, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko proposed a coordinated transformation of the judicial systems among CIS partners. He acknowledged the establishment of the CIS Council of Chairmen of the Supreme Courts, which he believes will enable coordinated approaches to justice. Lukashenko stressed that Belarus's judicial reforms were carefully planned without any replication of foreign experience, and he was interested in sharing experiences with other countries in the field of judicial construction. He acknowledged that after the once-unified judicial system collapsed, national models of judicial procedure needed to be established, and Belarus opted for a path of continuous improvements. The president recognized the contribution of the previous generations to judicial construction and believed that the exchange of experience would be of particular interest. (“Lukashenko offers CIS partners to coordinate judicial reforms,” Belta, 15 April 2023)

SPACE

JUICE Mission successfully launched after a short delay
On 14 April, the European Space Agency (ESA) successfully launched the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) satellite from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana after a delay due to weather conditions. JUICE will be sent on a 6.6 billion km journey, taking 8.5 years to reach the Jovian system, using a series of gravitational slingshots around Venus and Earth to reach its destination. The satellite will study the three largest moons of Jupiter (Callisto, Ganymede, and Europa) remotely, using radar, lidar, magnetometers, and other sensors, as well as taking countless pictures with its cameras. JUICE will also investigate the moons' electrical and magnetic environments and the particles that surround them. NASA's Clipper satellite will conduct similar investigations, with a focus on Europa, and is planned to arrive in 2024. The mission aims to gather more information about potential habitability to inform future missions that could potentially drill through the ice crust of one of Jupiter's moons to reach the water beneath. (Jonathan Amos, “European Space Agency: Blast off for Jupiter icy moons mission,” BBC News, 14 April 2023)


14 April 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #487

War in Ukraine, Day 414: ​​​​​​​Diverging claims emerge among the actors in the Bakhmut Battle

Photo : Valentin Sprinchak / TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 414
Diverging claims emerge among the actors in the Bakhmut Battle

War on the Ground
On 13 April, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who attended the meeting conducted by the US with IMF representative, requested for a concrete system to be placed to use the frozen Russian assets as compensation for the damage in Ukraine. According to the report the reconstruction cost comes to EUR 411 billion with an estimated time period of 10 years. Ukraine demanded for EUR 14 billion on immediate basis as per World Bank. It announced to give USD 200 million for energy and heating infrastructure reconstruction, whereas its members agreed to give another USD 300 million to expand that.

The Moscow View
On 13 April, Russia’s Defence Minister Igor Konashenkov claimed that the Wagner Group had engaged in intense fighting to push Ukraine forces away from the central parts of Bakhmut. On the same the Russian forces claimed to have blocked the paths used by the Ukraine forces to fight the frontline of Bakhmut. Russia’s Defence Ministry in a statement: “Airborne troops are providing support to advancing assault troops, blocking the transfer of Ukrainian army reserves to the city and the possibility of retreat for enemy units.” According to the founder of the Wagner Group, denied the claims stating it was too early to confirm the encirclement.

The West View
On 13 April, UK’s Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced the decision to grant an additional USD 500 million to Ukraine as a loan. The total comes to USD 15.6 billion under the four-year package of IMF loan guarantee to Ukraine. He said: “This funding will enhance Ukraine's economic resilience and strengthen its resistance against Russia.”

On 13 April, the US sanctioned more than 120 entities to add pressure on Russia. This will include Russia’s state energy company, Rosatom, Russia’s private military company, along with its partner firms in Turkey and Hungary. One of the key target of the sanctions was Russia’s businessman Alisher Usmanov, who is known to be the host of larger network of businesses that provides space to avoid sanctions.

On 13 April, in the intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on the challenges faced by Russia ahead of the “victory day” in May. It observed that due to “sensitive communication” issues, has risked the management of the campaign in Ukraine. According to the report: “Putin couches the ‘special military operation’ in the spirit of the Soviet experience in World War Two.”

On 13 April, the Norway’s Foreign Ministry announced the expulsion of 15 Russian officers working in Norway. Out of the 40 Russian Diplomats, three were already expelled in 2022. According to the Foreign Minister: “We have followed their activities over time. They have increased since the invasion of Ukraine… Their activities pose a threat to Norway.”


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

FRANCE
Drier summer ahead due to reduced rainfall
On 13 April, Deutsche Welle reported that France is expected to experience a drier summer as compared to 2022’s record drought due to lower groundwater levels resulting from climate change. BRGM, the French geological service, has cautioned that the entire country could be affected by the situation. The lack of rainfall during the winter has prevented the ground from retaining more water, exacerbating the situation. Over three-quarters of the country's groundwater levels have fallen below the monthly average, with fruit and vine crops being the most susceptible to damage. Water restrictions are likely to be imposed, particularly in central regions and around Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a 10 per cent reduction in water usage by all sectors by 2030. (“France facing even worse summer drought than 2022,” Deutsche Welle, 13 April 2023)

GERMANY
59 per cent opposes nuclear phase-out reveals survey
On 13 April, Frankfurter Allgemeine reported that a majority of German citizens oppose the nuclear phase-out, which will occur on 15 April 2023 with the closure of the last three nuclear power plants. The decision is considered wrong by 59 per cent of participants in a recent survey, with only 34 per cent believing it is correct. Older age groups tend to reject the phase-out, while approval is only found among the younger age group. Concerns over increased energy prices accompany the shift towards more climate-friendly energy, with two-thirds of survey participants expressing major concerns. Political party supporters also showed mixed opinions, with the Greens and SPD in favor, and the Union, AfD, and FDP against the nuclear shutdown. Henceforth, abandoning nuclear power as part of the climate policy is a regressive measure, indicating that the German shift was not solely focused on energy policy but also included societal and capitalist critiques. Political party supporters also showed mixed opinions, with the Greens and SPD in favor, and the Union, AfD, and FDP against the nuclear shutdown. (“The majority of Germans are against the nuclear phase-out,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 13 April 2023; Jasper von Altenbockum, “Offering to Old Green Men,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 14 April, 2023)

Law proposed to curb 'digital violence' and anonymous hate speech
On 12 April, Germany's Justice Minister, Marco Buschmann, presented a draft law aimed at combating digital violence and anonymous hate speech. The proposed law seeks to make platform operators accountable for taking more decisive action against hate speech beyond merely deleting offensive posts. One key aspect of the legislation is a civil claim that allows victims to request the blocking of hostile accounts. The proposed law is designed to safeguard those who suffer from digital violence, but it also raises apprehensions regarding privacy and anonymity rights. The divulgence of IP addresses can undermine the privilege of anonymity, which is protected by the coalition agreement in Germany. Legal policy associations will have the opportunity to provide feedback on the key points until 26 May, after which a draft bill will be presented to the Bundestag for voting, expected to take place in the latter half of 2023. (Alina Clasen, “Germany plans legislation to block cyber-hate accounts,” Euractiv, 13 April 2023)

REGIONAL
Mediterranean Sea crossings indicate record high deaths
On 13 April, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) published in a report that the number of people dying while trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe has reached a level not seen since 2017. The report recorded 441 deaths in the first three months of 2023, but cautioned that the actual number was likely much higher. Since the start of 2023, Ivory Coast, Guinea, and Pakistan represented the largest share of people taking the Mediterranean route to Italy. The IOM accused Mediterranean states, without specifying which ones, of failing to launch state-led search and rescue operations in a timely manner, resulting in numerous deaths. It also criticized policies introduced by some countries to hinder humanitarian efforts, such as Italy's impounding of humanitarian boats and new requirements for those carrying rescued people to disembark further from their areas of operations. The IOM called for state support of NGOs and an end to criminalisation of their efforts to save lives. (“UN reports rise in Mediterranean migrant crossing deaths,” Deutsche Welle, 12 April 2023)

Former EU lawmaker Eva Kaili granted house arrest
On 12 April, Deutsche Welle reported the statement given by a Belgian judge to grant house arrest to Former European Union (EU) lawmaker Eva Kaili, who was arrested four months ago in connection to the Qatargate corruption scandal. The Greek lawmaker is accused of accepting bribes from Qatar and Morocco in exchange for political favors, which she denies. Moreover the charges go against her partner, Francisco Giorgi, who allegedly ran a network of bribe-taking lawmakers, NGO leaders, and trade unionists, stemming from investigations into former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri. However, he was previously released with an electronic tracker. These individuals are said to have attempted to improve Qatar and Morocco's reputations, including by downplaying criticism of Qatar's treatment of workers ahead of the 2022 World Cup. Even the governments of Qatar and Morocco deny the accusations. (“EU corruption scandal: Eva Kaili moved to house arrest,” Deutsche Welle, 12 April 2023)

Latvia to strength gas security through joint use of Paldiski LNG Terminal
On 12 April, LSM reported that Latvia's Ministry of Climate and Energy (KEM) plans to enhance the safety of its natural gas supply by collaborating on the use of the Paldiski LNG terminal in Estonia. The Lithuanian-Polish interconnector and the Inkoo terminal in Finland, along with the upcoming LNG terminal in Paldiski, Estonia, have drastically transformed the natural gas system in the region. The KEM emphasized that constructing a Skulte LNG terminal in Latvia is impractical without substantial state guarantees, and an independent LNG terminal in the area is not economically viable. Instead, the KEM will work with the Estonian national regulatory authority to develop joint access terms for the Paldiski terminal to strengthen the gas security of both Estonia and Latvia. (“Latvia plans joint use of Estonia's Paldiski LNG terminal,” LSM, 12 April 2023)

Norway expels 15 Russian officials under intelligence suspicion
On 13 April, BBC News reported that Norway expelled 15 Russian diplomats who were allegedly engaged in espionage activities under the guise of diplomatic cover. The expulsion is the latest in a series of similar actions taken by various European countries against Russia since its military invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Norway’s Foreign Minister, Anniken Huitfeldt, emphasized that Norway would not tolerate Moscow using its embassy to conduct secret intelligence operations. However, Norwegian authorities did not disclose any specific details about the activities of the expelled diplomats. The two countries have a 197 kilometer land border in the Arctic, and their relationship has been strained since the Ukraine crisis began. Norway, which is not a member of the European Union, has followed in the footsteps of several EU countries and imposed sanctions on Russia. The Russian government has promised to respond to Norway's move with an "appropriate" action. Norway claims that Russia poses the most significant intelligence threat to its national security and that the threat is intensifying amidst Europe's deteriorating security environment. Despite this, the government wants to maintain regular diplomatic relations with Moscow. (Sean Seddon, “Norway expels 15 Russian diplomats accused of spying,” BBC News, 13 April 2023)

SPACE
ESA postpones the launch of Jupiter Satellite
On 13 April, BBC News reported on the European Space Agency (ESA) delayed launch of its Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) satellite, which is going to take an eight-year journey from Earth to reach Jupiter's major moons, due to concerns about lightning risks. JUICE aims to investigate whether Jupiter's three largest moons (Callisto, Europa, and Ganymede) have the potential to support simple microbial organisms. The spacecraft will perform 35 close flybys of the moons, taking measurements with 10 instruments, including a magnetometer provided by the UK's Imperial College London. The data gathered could provide insight into the properties of the moons' hidden oceans. The mission had been due to launch from Kourou, French Guiana, on 14 April 2023, but the launch was rescheduled for 16 April 2023. The craft will be dispatched on a path around the inner solar system and is due to arrive at Jupiter's system in July 2031. The US is also planning a companion mission, known as Clipper, to focus on Europa. (Jonathan Amos, “Juice: European Space Agency mission to Jupiter's icy moons postponed,” BBC News, 13 April, 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
US imposes sanctions on Russian-controlled bank in Hungary
On 13 April, Euractiv reported about the US sanctions being imposed on three top officials of the Interna Investment Bank in Budapest, which is controlled by Russia, after accusing Hungary of ignoring US concerns over the "opaque Kremlin platform". The US Treasury stated that the bank's presence in Budapest has allowed Russia to enhance its intelligence presence in Europe, and could facilitate corruption and illicit finance, including sanctions violations. The sanctions list includes former chairman of the bank, Nikolay Kosov as well as Russian national Georgy Potapov, and Hungarian national Imre Laszloczki, both high-ranking officials on the IIB's management board. The Hungarian government led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbån's government has fostered friendly ties with Moscow since 2010, despite being criticized for not personally criticizing President Vladimir Putin while condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Hungary heavily depends on imports of natural gas and crude oil from Russia and has criticized the EU's sanctions against Russia, arguing that they have not effectively weakened Moscow and could harm the European economy. Other NATO allies have responded to the US's concerns, while the Hungarian government has remained committed to hosting the IIB. (“US sanctions leaders of Russian bank, warns Hungary over ties with Moscow,” Euractiv, 13 April 2023)


13 April 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #486

Europe in Brief: Russia successful in advanced ICBM test launch

Photo : EPA/EFE/YURI KOCHETKOV


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

THE UK
Junior Doctor strike disrupts NHS
On 11 April, a four-day-strike began by junior doctors in England which has staged the most disruptive strike in the history of the publicly-funded National Health Service (NHS) and is expected to result in the cancellation of up to 350,000 medical appointments. Senior doctors and experienced nurses have been called in to ensure that emergency services and critical care continue during the strike. The strikes come as the NHS is already overwhelmed with approximately seven million patients waiting for hospital treatment. The strike has been triggered by a need for pay rises to make up for increasing inflation. The British Medical Association, which represents doctors, is calling for a 35 per cent pay rise to compensate for 15 years of below-inflation pay increases. However, UK Health Minister Steve Barclay has dismissed the demand as unreasonable, pointing to other medical unions which have suggested a more modest increase of five per cent plus a one-off lump sum. (“Junior doctors in England launch 4-day strike over pay,” Deutsche Welle, 11 April 2023)

CLIMATE

Renewables lead to drop in fossil fuel use says report
On 12 April, the annual global electricity review by Ember's Global Electricity suggested, by looking at electricity data from 78 countries, that the world will experience a turning point in the use of fossil fuels for electricity production, resulting in reduced emissions of warming gasses This would be the first time in history that there has been an annual decrease in the use of coal, oil, and gas for electricity, excluding global recessions or pandemics. The review attributed this change to the increasing popularity of renewable energy sources, primarily led by China. Wind and solar energy currently produce 12 per cent of global electricity, and enough wind turbines were added in 2022 to power the entire UK. The study predicts that renewable energy sources will meet all growth in demand in 2023, which is a significant step towards reducing energy-related carbon emissions responsible for over a third of global warming. The report reveals that clean sources produced 39 per cent of global electricity in 2022, making it the cleanest year yet. However, energy experts recognize that more still needs to be done to reduce the world's dependence on fossil fuels. (Lottie Limb, “End of the fossil age’: Wind and solar broke energy records last year, report reveals,” euronews, 12 April 2023; Matt McGrath, “Climate change: Fossil fuel emissions from electricity set to fall - report,” BBC News, 12 April 2023; Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, “Global Electricity Review 2023,” Ember, 12 April, 2023; Nina Chestney, “Wind and solar hit record 12% of global power generation last year,” Reuters, 13 April 2023)

ECONOMY

Guardian reports on countries urging to redirect fossil fuel subsidies towards decarbonisation
On 12 April, The Guardian reported about the calls by campaigners for the redirection of the EUR 15.7bn in fossil fuel subsidies given by the EU to its fishing industry over the past decade, towards decarbonisation. The proposed ultra-low industry tax rate of 3.6 cents per litter for fishing vessels is being opposed by France, Cyprus and Spain, which prefer the current arrangement of no taxes for the sector. The EU fishing fleet’s CO2 emissions stood at a minimum of 56m tonnes between 2010 and 2020, twice Malta’s emissions during the same period. Fishing vessels in Europe do not pay any fuel taxes presently, unlike aircraft. The report suggests that the EU could generate EUR 681 million or EUR 1.4 billion annually by imposing a fuel tax of 33, respectively, on its fishing fleet. The report’s creators argue that revenues from a gradually imposed fuel tax could be used in decarbonisation projects such as electrifying harbours for shoreside power and providing more fuel-efficient fishing gear that reduces bycatch. To reduce carbon emissions, any investments must replace rather than increase the capacity of the fishing industry as it faces both climate change and overharvesting challenges. (Arthur Neslen, “Campaigners call for EU to tax fishing industry to fund decarbonisation,” The Guardian, 12 April 2023)

Swiss lawmakers reject symbolic vote on UBS' buyout of Credit Suisse
On 12 April, Deutsche Welle reported that the lawmakers in Switzerland rejected the government's deal for UBS to acquire Credit Suisse in a symbolic vote, although the rescue package had already been approved under an emergency law. The Swiss lower house of parliament voted against the 100 billion Swiss francs rescue package that saw UBS taking over its rival Credit Suisse. Many in the country, where frequent referendums on various policy issues are common, have been angered by the government's decision to push through the rescue package. Despite the symbolic nature of Wednesday's vote, it highlights the government's hopes of securing the legislature's approval. The UBS buyout of Credit Suisse was negotiated by the Swiss government to prevent the 167-year-old banking institution from collapsing and potentially triggering further crashes in the global banking system. (“Swiss parliament symbolically rejects Credit Suisse rescue,” Deutsche Welle, 12 April 2023)

GENDER

Scottish government to challenge Westminster's block on gender reform proposals
On 12 April, BBC News reported that the Scottish government plans to challenge the UK government's block on its Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which would allow individuals in Scotland to self-identify their sex. The UK government blocked the proposals due to their potential impact on UK-wide equality laws, which the Scottish government has called an "undemocratic veto". However, the reforms have caused division within the SNP, with one leadership candidate resigning last year due to concerns about their impact on safeguards for women and girls. An opinion poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times suggested that 18 per cent of Scottish voters believe legal action should be taken, while 44 per cent believe the reforms should be abandoned, and 24 per cent believe a compromise should be reached. UK’s Former Supreme Court judge, Lord Hope has stated: “the Scottish government's chances of winning a court case are very low,” as the Scottish legislation affects the Equality Act 2010 and the existing Gender Recognition Act 2004 that apply across Great Britain. (Philip Sim, “Block on Scottish gender reforms to be challenged in court,” BBC News, 12 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Russia successful in advanced ICBM test launch
On 11 April, Russia carried out a triumphant trial firing of a sophisticated intercontinental ballistic missile. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin already said in February that a new kind of intercontinental ballistic missile would be deployed in 2023, known as the Sarmat or "Satan 2," which is capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and is described as "invincible." The exercise occurred only a few weeks after Russia announced its decision to discontinue participation in the New START agreement with the United States. The missile launch took place from the Kapustin Yar testing facility, and the Russian Defense Ministry stated that the test was to verify the reliability and effectiveness of advanced combat equipment for intercontinental ballistic missiles. President Vladimir Putin has issued warnings that he could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if Russia was threatened. NATO has condemned Putin's actions, including the recent deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which brings arms to the doorstep of the European Union. (Georgi Gotev, “Russia conducts test launch of ‘advanced’ ICBM, reaching target in Kazakhstan,” Euractiv, 12 April 2023)


11 April 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #484

War in Ukraine, Day 411: Bakhmut: Ukraine forces report on Russia’s special forces involvement

Photo : REUTERS/Oleksandr Klymenko


War in Ukraine, Day 411:
Bakhmut: Ukraine forces report on Russia’s special forces involvement

By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 10 April, Ukraine Ground Forces, Commander on the battle for Bakhmut, reported that Russia had switched to “Syrian scorched earth tactics” against the Ukraine forces to hold restraint. According to the Commander, the strong defence held by its forces has pushed Russia into involving special forces and air assault units. The situation remains to be challenging the capacity of both forces in the war.

On 10 April, the German Staff of Ukraine forces claimed eight strikes on M-24 helicopter, and six unmanned aerial vehicles along with missile troops and artilleries. They also reported that 21 strikes by Russia resulted in equipment and manpower loss in Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, Tokmak, and Zaporizhzhia area.

On 10 April, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, Deputy Minister reported on the increased artillery attacks and use of aircraft in Bakhmut. According to the Minister: “Wagner units have lost their strength, and that's why they [the invaders] use both air assault troops and special forces.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 April, Russia’s Deputy Chief of Russia’s aerospace force reported on Russia’s efforts to address the defence issues at the northwestern border shared with Finland. According to the Chief, stated that Russia would work in its air defences to guard its northwest.

On 10 April, RT reported on India reaching the peak point in purchasing oil from Russia. According to the report, close to 1.64 million barrels per day in March was exported. It also reported on the unaffected Swiss exports despite sanctions. Between March 2022 and February 2023 the total export accounted for 2.9 billion, which was previously 3.5 billion. The major trade lies in watches, machines, and medicines.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 April, in the intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on how Russia continues to invest resources for small wins. This was observed in the operations in the Marinka and Avdiivka districts. There is also increased armoured assaults in the Marinka, which has been on the battle field since 2014.

On 10 April, the Germany government announced another package of military aid, which includes antenna mast systems, drones and ammunition. Under the new package, armoured engineer vehicles, antenna mast, reconnaissance drones,

References
Russians switched to 'Syrian' scorched earth tactics in battle for Bakhmut – Ukraine commander,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
Russia strengthening northwestern air defenses after Finland joins NATO,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
War update: Ukraine's aircraft launch eight strikes against Russian invaders,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
Maliar: Russians firing at vehicles moving towards Bakhmut,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
Russia remains India’s top oil supplier – data,” RT, 10 April 2023
Swiss pharma exports to Russia surge,” RT, 10 April 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 April 2023,” UKMOD/Twitter, 10 April 2023
Military support for Ukraine,” bundesregierung.de, 10 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

BELARUS

Lukashenko calls for security guarantee from Russia
On 10 April, the Deutsche Welle reported that Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, called on Russia to defend Belarus as its own territory, and formalize security guarantees for Minsk. The statement was made following a meeting with Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, where Lukashenko had discussed on formalizing security guarantees with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Currently, Belarus hosts a contingent of Russian forces and serves as a staging ground for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. While Lukashenko has no intention of committing troops to Russia's invasion, pledged to respond to any incursions into Belarusian territory or attempts to incite unrest. Lukashenko argued that the Budapest Memorandum's security guarantees, which Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine gave up their Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons under, had been violated by sanctions on Belarus and Russia. (“Belarus' Lukashenko asks for Russian security guarantees,” Deutsche Welle, 10 April 2023)

ESTONIA

New coalition government announces tax hikes and reforms
On 08 April, the incoming coalition government composed of the Reform Party, Eesti 200, and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) revealed their coalition agreement, which includes several tax increases such as a car tax from 2024, a revision of the state budget, and a green reform. The coalition agreement also includes a pledge to raise VAT and income tax rates from 20 per cent to 22 per cent beginning in 2024 and 2025, respectively, while raising the basic exemption to 700 euros a month. Estonia will also introduce a car tax in 2024 and abolish the VAT exception for accommodation providers. The coalition aims to renovate buildings for energy efficiency and to create a separate entity to oversee oil shale mining. Mineral resource surveys prioritized in the EU will continue, and the burning of wood in industrial power generation will end. The coalition also plans to end the burning of wood in industrial power generation and continue efforts to electrify more of Estonia's railways. The coalition agreement also includes plans to revise the division of tasks and funding model between central and local governments and privatize non-strategic, partially or fully state-owned companies. Additionally, the coalition pledges to amend the Family Benefits Act and allow Unemployment Insurance Fund's retraining support to be used for tuition payments. The coalition aims to abolish Riigikogu protection money and amend the presidential election law to allow for earlier candidate setup. Lastly, the coalition pledges to look for ways to tax international streaming platforms and seek fair taxation for global digital giants. (“Sides to incoming government unveil coalition agreement,” ERR News, 08 April 2023)
 
GEORGIA

Protests against the Georgian government continue against democratic backsliding
On 09 April, protesters gathered outside the Georgian parliament building in Tbilisi, expressing their objection to the government. The ruling Georgian Dream party has been accused of being too closely tied to Russia and undermining democracy by imprisoning political opponents and limiting press freedom. The protest was organized by the main opposition party in support of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is currently serving a six-year jail sentence for abuse of power, which international human rights groups deem politically motivated. Georgia’s chair of the United National Movement party, Levan Khabeishvili, who organized the protest outside the Georgian parliament, demanding the release of "political detainees" and implementation of the reforms required by Brussels. In March 2023, mass protests forced the government to abandon a bill that would have required NGOs receiving foreign funds to register as "foreign agents." Protesters at the rally waved Georgian, Ukrainian, and EU flags and displayed a banner reading "For a European future." The Georgian government has stated its commitment to joining the EU, but critics argue its actions are undermining this goal. (Christy Cooney, “Mikheil Saakashvili: Thousands join mass anti-government rally in Georgia,” BBC, 10 April 2023)

IRELAND

Riots Erupt in Northern Ireland ahead of Biden's Visit
On 10 April, ahead of the US President Joe Biden's visit, riots broke out in Northern Ireland, with masked individuals throwing Molotov cocktails and objects at a police vehicle during a parade in the city of Londonderry. Biden is scheduled to arrive in Northern Ireland on 11 April 2023; he willdeliver a speech at a university, the parade was opposing the Good Friday peace accord,  on the occasion of the 25th anniversary, which marked the end of the troubles, a 30-year-long ethno-nationalist conflict that claimed the lives of around 3,700 people. However, no injuries were reported in the riots. (“Northern Ireland: Molotovs hit police ahead of Biden visit,” Deutsche Welle, 11 April 2023)
 
ITALY

Italian coastguard rescues over 1,200 migrants off Sicily coast
On 11 April, the BBC  reported the conducting of two extensive operations by the Italian coastguard in the attempt to save approximately 1,200 migrants from overcrowded boats off the coast of Sicily. The efforts were made after the Italian coastguard observed that one of the fishing boats was carrying about 800 people while the other was transporting around 400 individuals. They have saved almost 2,000 people in earlier operations since 07 April 2023. However, at least two people lost their lives during the weekend's boat crossings, as per the German non-profit organization ResQship. Despite the right-wing coalition government's efforts to curtail irregular migration, migrant arrivals in Italy rose substantially compared to the same period last year. While one of the boats carrying 400 people was still without assistance late on Monday, an unofficial hotline for migrants in distress, Alarm Phone, informed the authorities of Italy, Greece, and Malta on Sunday. (Alys Davies, “Europe migrant crisis: Italy moves to rescue 1,200 people on boats,” BBC , 11 April 2023)

Italy to take action to boost birth rates as population declines
On 10 April, the Euractiv reported on the announcement made by Italy's Prime Minister, Georgia Meloni that her government is developing new policies to address the declining birth rate. The number of deaths in Italy has surpassed the number of births, neutralized by migration movements with foreign countries. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) reveals that as of 01 January 2023, the Italian population is approximately 58 million, a three per cent decrease from 2022, mainly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. The population decline is most pronounced in the south of the country. For the first time since Italy's unification, the number of births in 2022 fell below 400,000. The reduction is attributed to an excess of deaths over births, as well as the aging of the female population of childbearing age and reduced reproductive levels. To tackle the demographic emergency, Meloni created a ministry dedicated to family, nationality and equal opportunities. Italy’s Family Minister Eugenia Roccella confirmed that addressing the demographic crisis is a top priority for the government. (Federica Pascale, “Italy prepares measures to face declining birth rates,” Euractiv, 10 April 2023)
 
ECONOMY

Apple's Irish subsidiary pays EUR 7.7 billion in taxes while facing legal challenges
On 09 April, The Guardian reported that Apple's Irish subsidiary, Apple Operations International, paid 7.7 billion euros in corporation tax for the financial year ending in September, but paid out nearly three times that amount in dividends to its California-based parent company, Apple Incorporation. The Irish subsidiary's revenue increased to 223 billion USD, with a two per cent profit rise and generating almost USD 190 million per day. Dividends worth USD 20.7 billion paid to Apple are subject to US taxes, but it remains unclear which governments received these taxes, equivalent to 11 per cent of profits. The corporation tax rate of 12.5 per cent in Ireland would have amounted to a USD 8.7 billion bill. Apple has encountered legal difficulties concerning its tax arrangements in Ireland, where it has been present since 1980. In 2020, the European Commission ordered Apple to pay EUR 13 billion in back taxes to Ireland for obtaining a tax arrangement that was a form of illegal state aid between 2003 and 2014. Despite Apple's opposition, a court in Luxembourg ruled that the Commission failed to prove the allegation, and therefore Apple did not have to pay back taxes to the Irish government. (Kalyeena Makortoff, “Profits at Apple’s subsidiary in Ireland rise to $69bn,” The Guardian, 09 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

BBC reports on President Biden's visit to Ireland
On 11 April, the BBC reported an analysis of the reasons leading Ireland to be a noteworthy player for Joe Biden. Despite the polarization of politicians in Washington, they all agree on the importance of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in ending the 30-year conflict in Northern Ireland. The agreement is considered a triumph of diplomacy and negotiation. The US played a significant role in securing peace through the tireless efforts of Senator George Mitchell and President Bill Clinton. President Biden regards the agreement as part of his political legacy and prioritizes defending it against potential Brexit impacts. His upcoming visit to Northern Ireland aims to discuss supporting the region's economic potential, and his trip to Ireland will stress the close relationship between the two nations. In addition, President Biden's Irish roots make his visits to Belfast and Dublin significant to him and the Irish diaspora in America. The locals in Carlingford, where the president's great-great-grandfather lived, are hopeful for constructing a bridge that would improve economic links and want it named after him. (Sarah Smith, “Why Ireland is so important to Joe Biden,” BBC, 11 April 2023)

US document leak reveal shortage of ammunition for Ukraine’s air defence
On 10 April, The Guardian reported that Ukraine's air defences are at risk of running out of missiles and ammunition within a few weeks, according to Pentagon documents that have apparently been leaked. Nonetheless, it is unclear whether there have been any alterations to the usage rate since the document's release. The New York Times reported that Ukraine's Buk air defence systems, which are used along with the S-300 to protect vital sites from Russian air power, could encounter problems by mid-April. The originality of the Pentagon documents is yet to be confirmed. The South Korean opposition party called on the government to authenticate the Pentagon documents that allegedly suggest the US attempted to spy on senior officials in Seoul over arms sales. South Korea has backed international sanctions against Russia and given non-lethal aid to Kyiv but has refrained from sending weapons to the war-torn country. Its stance on not selling weapons to countries at war has been criticized as an attempt to avoid antagonizing Russia, whose support it needs to pressure North Korea into abandoning its nuclear weapons. (“Ukraine’s air defences could soon run out of missiles, apparent Pentagon leak suggests,” The Guardian, 10 April 2023)


10 April 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #483

War in Ukraine, Day 409 & 410

"Why would Ukraine disappear? Because nobody needs it" says Medvedev

Photo : Reuters/Rferl


War in Ukraine, Day 409 & 410
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 08 April, Ukraine’s Naval Forces reported on Russia’s deployment of seven warships carrying Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea. According to the report the warship’s location were traced in Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and in the Mediterranean Sea.

On 08 April, Ukrinform reported on the presence of 70-kilometre defence line containing Russia’s forces in Zaporizhzhia. According to the report the captured area of Zaporizhzhia under Russia remains in guard in the west as spotted in the Sentinel-2 satellite. This extends to the center of Mariupol, which Russia sees as capital of the region. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 April, RT reported on Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev comments on Ukraine. Medvedev stated that Ukraine would soon vanish since the west nor its people care for it to exist. He said: “Why would Ukraine disappear? Because nobody needs it.” He substantiated this saying the EU would not need to continue the conflict as it leads to financial and political turmoil. Medvedev warned: “The prospect of decisively planting Ukrainian blood-sucking parasites on the neck of the shriveling EU.” According to him this would lead to the “demise” of the EU.

On 09 April, one of the Russia’s military center Head, remarked on the Russia’s plans to bring tank-killer groups to counter the “modern armour” given by the West to Ukraine. According to the Head, there have been “instructional guidelines” have been drafted by Russian military to carry out training. In the statement of the military expert: “This is large-scale, systemic work which is being carried out at state level.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 April, the US National Guard reported on the upcoming NATO schedule to hold a largest aviation exercise called “Air Defender 2023,” from 12 to 23 June. According to the report, the aviation drill will take place in NATO’s eastern front and to quickly deploy its aviation. The exercise led by Germany will also look into “operational and tactical field training.” In the statement of NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence (CCDCOE) will host the largest cyber defence exercise including more than 3,000 individuals.

On 08 April, in the intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia attempts to bring down Ukraine’s energy grid during 2022 was not successful. According to the statement: “Russia has conducted long range strikes since October 2022, but large-scale strikes have become rare since early March 2023.” It observed Ukraine’s power system was able to replace the needed components including transformers despite logistical issues. The Ministry also suggests that energy system of Ukraine will get better with warmer weather. 

References
There are 7 enemy ships in the Black Sea on combat standby, of which 1 carrier of winged missiles "Caliber,” facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua, 08 April 2023
Satellite imagery shows 70km ‘trench’ of Russians in Zaporizhzhia region,” Ukrinform, 08 April 2023
Ukraine will 'disappear' – Medvedev,” RT, 08 April 2023
Moscow set to deploy ‘tank hunters’ to battlefield – official,” RT, 09 April 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 8 April 2023.,” UKMOD/Twitter, 08 April 2023
Sgt. Sarah McClanahan, “
ANG Top Leader Hosts Air Defender ’23 Media Visit,” nationalguard.mil, 07 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

Aleksandr Chervyakov calls for technological independence with Russia
On 07 April, Belarus’s Economy Minister, Aleksandr Chervyakov highlighted the need for technological independence between Belarus and Russia. He also added other potential areas for cooperation in manufacturing, electronics and building machines. Till now eight programs have been completed include working on nuclear energy and improving product traceability. They have signed 26 different agreements on taxes and customs, with 10 more agreements upcoming in 2023. Russia had bought 60 per cent of all goods traded by Belarus in 2022, while Belarus sold nine per cent of all goods imported by Russia, which is more than usual. The minister wants to increase the amount of goods Belarus sells to Russia by 6.5 per cent this year, which would be worth 1.5 billion USD. (“Technological independence seen as crucial to Belarus-Russia union security concept,” beltanews. 07 April 2023)

FINLAND

Sanna Marin to step down from Social Democrats Party
On 05 April, Finland’s Social Democrats party, Head Sanna Marin, decided not to run for re-election in September. She says the last four years have been difficult, with things like the pandemic and Russia invading Ukraine. However, she will still help the party form a coalition, which starts on April 14th. It led to inquiries as to whether she has disappointed the over 35,000 individuals who voted for her in the recent parliamentary elections. Sanna Marin's announcement of not seeking re-election as the leader of the Social Democrats has generated discussions and conjecture regarding her potential successor. Several stakeholders have made their own interpretations. Finn’s Party group leader, Ville Tavio, made an interpretation that she made a lot of debt for Finland and now she's leaving. He also thinks that her leaving makes it more likely that the National Coalition and Social Democrats will work together to form a government. (“Marin didn’t let down her voters, Tuppurainen states to YLE,” Helsinki times, 07 April 2023)

REGIONAL

EU to compensate for discontinued pipeline deliveries from Russia
On 08 April, according to a report by Reuters, the European Union’s figure for supercooled gas is expected to exceed 50 per cent by 2023 as it has not procured sufficient long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to compensate for the discontinued pipeline deliveries from Russia. To reduce its reliance on Russian energy, the bloc managed to enhance its imports of LNG to 121 million tons in the previous year, marking a 60 per cent growth compared to the year 2021. In 2022, the EU spent approximately 190 billion USD on supercooled gas when LNG prices crossed three times than usual, according to the International Energy Agency. The EU should use long-term sale and purchase agreements (SPAs) to cover 70 to 75 per cent of its LNG supply, as per the suggestions made by Morten Frisch, senior partner at Morten Frisch Consulting. (“EU exposed to high energy costs next winter,” Reuters, 08 April 2023)

Ireland to amend its Good Friday Agreement
On 09 April, the BBC News reported that the Republic of Ireland cast a ballot with over 90 per cent in favor of amending its constitution as a component of the Good Friday Agreement. twenty five years ago, this agreement saw the Irish government renouncing its constitutional claim to Northern Ireland, replacing Articles Two and Three with the principle of consent. However, political attention to Northern Ireland waned as new leaders with economic challenges took over in both the Republic of Ireland and the UK. The unexpected Brexit vote in 2016 had significant implications for the Good Friday Agreement, as the EU's single-market borders had become largely invisible by that time. In 2021, the Northern Ireland Protocol was introduced to avoid physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but unionists claim that it effectively created a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, leading to the collapse of the power-sharing government at Stormont. The insiders in the Republic are disappointed with the lack of progress on north-south borders, and some believe that Northern Ireland will not exist in its current form in 25 years. (Shane Harrison, “Good Friday Agreement: The view from the Republic 25 years on,” BBC News, 09 April 2023)

Genesis Market shut down by International Police
On 07 April, Europol announced that the world's most dangerous marketplace, which facilitated the sale of stolen account credentials to hackers worldwide, has been taken down by the international police. The operation was carried out by 17 countries, and involved the shutdown of the Genesis Market and the seizure of its infrastructure. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Dutch National Police (Politie) led the international sweep, and a command post was established at Europol's headquarters to coordinate the various enforcement measures undertaken across the globe. Its ease of accessibility and low prices made it a popular resource among hackers, greatly lowering the barrier of entry for buyers. This action by international law enforcement agencies will have a significant impact on the criminal underworld and will help to prevent further cyberattacks that cause financial and personal harm to individuals and organizations.  (“Police shut down 'one of the most dangerous' cyber market dealing in stolen identities: Europol,” Helsinki News, 07 April 2023)

ECONOMY

Russia facing the worst hit to its economy
On 08 April, the BBC News reported that the Russian rouble has hit a one-year low against the US dollar, falling to 82 roubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday morning. This is the lowest value the currency has reached since the country invaded Ukraine. While the country reported a 2.1 per cent contraction in its economy in 2023, this figure was far lower than the 15 per cent drop previously anticipated. The latest fall in the rouble's value is attributed to a range of factors, including lower oil prices in March and the sale of Western businesses in Russia following the invasion. Despite stabilizing at 50 roubles in July, the currency has since weakened once again. Despite a sharp fall in energy imports to Europe in 2022, China, India, and other regions have taken over the supply by filling up the gap in the market, created by Western companies withdrawing from Russia, despite the sharp fall in energy imports in 2022 in Europe. This has helped to mitigate the economic impact of the invasion on Russia. It has announced plans to adapt its economy in response to the sanctions, with a view to completing the process by 2024. (Natasha Preskey, “Russian rouble falls to lowest value for a year,” BBC News, 08 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Investigation launched on classified documents leak by the US
On 06 April, according to a New York Times report, several classified documents belonging to the US and NATO regarding Ukraine's preparation for a potential spring offensive against Russia surfaced on online platforms like Twitter, Telegram, and Discord. The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the matter, considering the potential impact of the documents on combat operations. The documents include sensitive information such as arms deliveries, battalion strengths, training plans of twelve Ukrainian combat brigades, ammunition consumption, maps showing the front's course and the location and strengths of Russian and Ukrainian troops, as well as information on other countries like China and Israel. It is claimed that the documents originated from various intelligence agencies and the military high command, and they were distributed through pro-Russian channels. The documents contain details from February and March and could help to understand how Ukraine intends to defend itself against Russian attacks. However, experts have warned that some of the documents might have been deliberately falsified as part of a Russian disinformation campaign. (“Justice Department investigates leak of classified documents,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 09 April 2023)

Tunisia’s two migrant boats missing since Friday
On 08 April, a second boat off Tunisia’s beach sank with four bodies recovered, and thirty-six individuals were rescued, but three remain missing. The first boat, which had 37 people on board, departed Tunisia for Italy on Friday. Seventeen people were rescued, while 20 remain missing. Since March, there have been at least seven similar shipwrecks off Tunisia, resulting in around 100 deaths or disappearances.The proximity of parts of the Tunisian coastline to Lampedusa, an Italian island frequently used as a crossing point to the mainland, has led to an increase in the number of people using Tunisia as a departure point to flee conflict. In the first quarter of 2023, over 14,000 migrants, mainly from sub-Saharan Africa, have been intercepted attempting to reach Europe from Tunisia. Tunisia's Sfax court spokesperson, Mr Masmoudi, commented while announcing the investigations for both incidents: "the aim is to find the organizers of these attempted crossings who made them embark on iron sheet boats, which do not offer minimum safety conditions at all but which are cheaper to manufacture than wooden ones". (“Tunisia migrant boat shipwrecks leave 27 dead or missing,“ BBC News, 09 April 2023)

Turkey-Iraq tensions escalate over alleged attack on sulaymaniyah airport
On 09 April, according to a report by Reuters, the Iraqi government demanded an apology from Turkey following an alleged attack on Sulaymaniyah airport in northern Iraq. The Iraqi presidency has called on Turkey to end hostilities on Iraqi soil and cease "intimidating civilians" under the guise of the presence of hostile forces in the region. Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) foreign media affairs Head, Lawk Ghafuri, said: “A drone attack near Sulaymaniyah airport occurred on Friday, but it did not cause any harm, delays, or suspensions of flights.” In response, Turkey’s defence ministry spokesperson denied its Armed Forces operation. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) confirmed that its chief, Mazloum Abdi, was present at the airport at the time of the alleged attack but remained unharmed. Turkey has previously conducted military operations against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, Islamic State, and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq and northern Syria, including air strikes. The alleged attack occurred after Turkey closed its airspace to aircraft traveling to and from Sulaymaniyah due to increased activity by PKK militants. (Ismail Amina, “Iraq calls on Turkey to apologize for attack on Sulaymaniyah airport,” Reuters, 09 April 2023)


08 April 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #482

War in Ukraine, Day 408: Wagner Group advances in the west of Bakhmuta River: UK Ministry of Defence

Photo : Maxar Technologies/ISW


War in Ukraine, Day 408:
Wagner Group advances in the west of Bakhmuta River: UK Ministry of Defence report

By Padmashree Anandhan

WAR ON THE GROUND
On 07 April, in the war update, Ukraine’s Military reported on continued attacks by Russia’s forces in Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka. It confirmed countering 40 attacks, but missile and air strikes were observed to be highly used by Russia. The report also revealed the continued use of Belarus airspace and border areas to deploy offensive groups in Kursk and Belgorod. 


THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 07 April, RT reported on Russia’s claim on Ukraine using NATO-provided ammunition to kill people in Donetsk area. The claim states the usage of NATO “supplied howitzers and rocket launchers.” Both were found to be used to attack Donetsk, according to Russia’s investigation.

On 07 April, RT reported on a “secret plan” leak on the scheduled offensives for Ukraine. In response to the accusation of Russia’s disinformation campaign for the leak, Moscow denied saying that since the start of the war, there has been “blatant falsification” of information where it provides the data on military equipment, offensives of Ukraine. Still, it views this as “planted misinformation” to project the combat weapons low in number.


THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 April, in the intelligence update, UK’s Ministry of Defence reported a significant advance of Russia’s forces in the Bakhmut. Earlier, the Wagner Group had circled Bakhmut from three sides, leaving out West. It is now observed to have taken control of the “west bank of the Bakhmuta River” which operates as key route for Ukraine to replenish stocks. The report also mentioned the possibility of the Wagner Group and Russia’s military in a better-cooperated way closing down the differences.

On 07 April, The New York Times reported on leaked documents which reveal the assistance for the “spring offensive” by the US and NATO to Ukraine. According to the report, the documents were put out on Twitter and Telegram and contained information on weapon delivery, battalion strength and “sensitive material.”

On 07 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the joint statement released by France and China on  assureing their commitment to stand for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and disarmament. 

On 07 April, Cyprus Defence Minister Michalis Georgallas announced its offer to help Ukraine in receiving “landmine clearance training” under its humanitarian assistance provision. Georgallas said: “We will host personnel which will handle de-mining and detection of mines.”


THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS 
Implications of the war

On 07 April, China’s Foreign Ministry released a statement after the meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. It called for a “political settlement” to bring the war to end and China’s President Xi Jinping stressed the need for the actors involved in the conflict to come “halfway” to create negotiating conditions to reach the settlement.
 
References
War update: AFU repels over 40 invaders' attacks in four directions,” Ukrinform, 07 April 2023
NYT: Pentagon investigating leaks of secret documents on Ukrainian counteroffensive,” Ukrinform, 07 April 2023
Ukraine used NATO ammunition to kill Donetsk civilians – Russia,” RT, 07 April 2023
Here's why the leaked ‘secret plan’ for a Ukrainian military offensive doesn't add up,” RT, 07 April 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 April 2023.,” UKMOD/Twitter, 07 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia gaining ground in Bakhmut, says UK,” Deutsche Welle, 07 April 2023


Europe In Brief
By Rishika Yadav

ESTONIA
Locked Shields Exercise 2023
On 07 April, the ERR reported on the biggest cyber defense exercise scheduled from 18 to 20 April by the NATO Cooperative Cyber-defence Center of Excellence (CCDCOE), called Locked Shields 2023. It will be a simulation exercise where participants can protect computer networks while simulating real-time tactical and strategic decision-making under critical conditions. The Director of the CCDCOE, Mart Noorma, said: "No other cyber-defence exercise offers such a multifaceted and detailed experience as Locked Shields.” The CCDCOE has been hosting this exercise in Tallinn since 2010, and this year, teams consisting of CCDCOE members and representatives will be participating from 38 different countries. (Marcus Turovski, “
Cyberdefense exercise in Tallinn to see over 3,000 participants,” errnews, 07 April 2023)

FRANCE
Protests continue for 11th day over proposed Pension Reform
On 06 April, protestors gathered back against the pension reform bill. This marks the 11th consecutive day with anti-pension reform protesters coming to the streets in cities across France. According to the interior ministry close to 570,000 took part blocking roads, and access point to airport, and universities. The reverse trigger comes as France’s Constitutional Council is scheduled to give verdict on the constitutionality of the proposed pension reform bill on 14 April. In addition to the widespread demonstrations, protesters also forcibly entered the building that houses the offices of BlackRock, a significant investment firm on Wall Street. Meanwhile, in the Western city of Nantes, clashes occurred between police and protesters, with law enforcement employing tear gas to try to disperse crowds. (“
France: Fresh protests over pensions reforms,” Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2023)

REGIONAL
Straining relations between Sweden and Hungary
On 06 April, the Reuters reported that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas, urged Stockholm to take measures to improve trust with Hungary as it seeks Hungary's support for NATO membership. The relationship between the two nations is currently strained. He further mentioned that Sweden and Finland's decision to join a lawsuit filed against Hungary by the European Commission has only exacerbated the situation. Sweden's attempt to join NATO has been hampered by Turkey and Hungary, who have objected to Sweden's criticism of Orban's stance on democratic principles and the rule of law. US President Joe Biden has called on Turkey and Hungary to promptly complete the ratification processes necessary for Sweden to join the alliance while welcoming Finland’s entry. (“
Sweden-Hungary ties at low point, Orban aide says, amid Stockholm NATO bid,” reuters, 06 April, 2023)

Increased avenues of nuclear technology cooperation between Russia and Belarus
On 07 April, Rosatom's Belarus office director, Stanislav Levitsky, announced a collaboration agreement between Rusatom Healthcare and Belarus' Medtechnocenter to supply medical equipment manufactured in Russia for Brachytherapy, a type of internal radiation therapy that is used to treat cancer. The partnership aims to develop medical devices, such as Brachium 2.0, which will include an improved ultrasound device and planning system to meet the needs of Russia, Belarus, and third countries. The cooperation agreement also includes plans to implement two or three Union State programs. Rosatom is also building a adiopharmaceutical plant in Kaluga Oblast, set to be completed by 2025. Additionally, Rosatom is developing storage systems, traction batteries for electric vehicles, and charging stations, with Belarus actively participating in these projects. Overall, the key avenues of cooperation between the two nations are nuclear medicine, nuclear research reactor, radioactive waste management, sterilization of food stuffs, and energy storage systems. (“
Rosatom names key avenues of cooperation with Belarus,” Belta News, 07 April 2023)

GENDER
15 EU member stated joined in an LGBT lawsuit against Hungary
On 07 April, the Euronews reported on a legal lawsuit filed against Hungary's Child Protection Law, which was criticised for its perceived anti-LGBT stance. As many as fifteen EU countries have joined the legal challenge objecting for linking paedophilia with homosexuality, as it aims to strengthen the protection of children against sex offenders. It restricts depictions of homosexuality and gender reassignment in media content and educational material intended for audiences under 18. The European Commission raised questions over the necessity of applying the ban on LGBT content to achieve the law’s main objectives. Seeing Hungary's refusal to reconsider, the European Commission lodged a legal complaint before the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in July 2022. The law in question was passed in June 2021 and on 06 April 2023 the deadline for countries to join the case elapsed. Those who joined the legal challenge against Hungary's Child Protection Law belong to Western Europe. This highlights a persistent gap between the East and West regions of the continent in terms of safeguarding the rights of the LGBT+ community. (
Jorge Liboreiro, “15 EU countries, including Germany and France, join legal case against Hungary's anti-LGBT law,” 07 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU on the Afghan ban on women working for the UN
On 04 April, the EU released a statement on Afghanistan's ban on women from working for the UN and its affiliated organizations, funds, and programs. It is an act of discrimination that further exacerbates the already dire situation faced by women and girls in Afghanistan. These developments are unfolding against severe economic and humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, where an estimated 28 million people, or two-thirds of the population, require urgent humanitarian assistance. This has led to millions of Afghans being pushed to the brink of famine. This decision clearly violates international Human Rights Law, including treaties that Afghanistan has ratified, as well as international Humanitarian Law and the principles of humanitarianism. The EU aligns with the United Nations in condemning the recent ban by the Taliban. The EU emphasizes the importance of international cooperation to address Afghanistan's humanitarian and economic crises, which affect over two-thirds of the population and could lead to widespread famine. (“
Afghanistan: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on Taliban banning Afghan women from working for the UN,” Council of the EU press release, 07 April 2023)


07 April 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #481

War in Ukraine, Day 407: Xi aligns with Macron in preventing the further escalation of the Ukraine w

Photo : SCMP/AFP


War in Ukraine, Day 407:
Xi aligns with Macron in preventing the further escalation of the Ukraine war

By Padmashree Anandhan

WAR ON THE GROUND
On 06 April, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address in Warsaw. In his remarks, he highlighted how the freedom of Ukraine, Poland, Slavic and Baltic countries freedom mattered as it guaranteed strength. With a better guarantee, the higher chances remain to hold Russia accountable. During the visit, Zelenskyy announced the latest defence package agreed upon by Poland. This will include “150 Rosomak armoured personnel carriers, 50 Rak self-propelled mortars, and 100 Piorun MANPADS,” worth up to EUR two billion.

On 06 April, the war update of Ukraine Armed Forces reported on the continued attacks in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka by Russia. Although it countered 20 such attacks, the situation remains the same with more than 10 MLRS, seven air strikes and missile strikes targeted in “Volyn, Polissia, Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions.”


THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 06 April, TASS reported on the Wagner Group Head, Yevgeny Prigozhin comments on Ukraine forces' position in Bakhmut. The fight lasting for more than six months, Prigozhin reported that there was no sign of Ukraine forces moving out of the area and criticized Russia for not supporting the Group. Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu stated that Ukraine's forces had been cornered into a “battle of attrition” and upon capture, Russia would benefit from expanding into the east.

On 06 April, in response to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's criticism on Russia moving its nuclear weapons into Belarus, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov countered, stating it was done in defence of the NATO’s expansion towards Russia. He said: “It is NATO that is expanding toward Russia, not Russia that is taking its military infrastructure towards the borders of NATO.”


THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 April, French President Emmanuel Macron, during the meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping released a joint statement assuring the call for “peace talks” between Ukraine and Moscow at the earliest. In the meeting, Macron stated how the Russia war had become a setback for international stability and stressed on China’s role in bringing Russia for negotiation.

On 06 April, Lithuania’s Parliament adopted a resolution for the upcoming NATO summit and invited Ukraine to join NATO. The document mandates the need for Ukraine to join NATO: “to sign accession protocols, and launch the ratification process once conditions allow.” According to the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs, Chairman highlighted how Ukraine could add value to Lithuania’s security and make NATO more strong.

On 06 April, on the investigation of damage to Nord Stream Pipeline, Sweden’s Prosecuting Authority stated that the due to the “nature of crime” it was challenging to find out the responsible actor. The explosion, which took place 262.5 feet below the ocean floor in the Baltic Sea, the investigation team of Sweden has committed duly to find the criminal despite the challenges. Along with Sweden, Germany also began the investigation in March.

On 06 April, the intelligence update of the UK Ministry of Defence reported on the dismissal of Russia’s Eastern Group of Forces (EGF) Commander. According to the report, the EGF Commander was dismissed due to a high casualty rate, failure to capture the town of Vuhledar, and increased internal criticism.


THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS 
Implications of the war

On 06 April, in the meeting with Macron, Xi released a joint statement agreeing to call the international community to prevent the escalation of the Ukraine crisis. He urged cooperation between China and France in “food, energy, finance and transport sectors” in the phase of Ukraine war. Xi said: “[China and France should] adhere to the general direction of a China-France comprehensive strategic partnership….to practise true multilateralism and maintain world peace, stability and prosperity.”
 
References
Freedom of Ukraine, Poland to help freedom prevail in Moldova, come to Belarus – Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 06 April 2023
Details of Poland’s defense order for Ukraine revealed,” Ukrinform, 06 April 2023
War update: Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka remain the hottest spots in eastern Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 06 April 2023
Kiev's forces on the defensive in western part of Artyomovsk — Wagner founder,” TASS, 06 April 2023
Burc Eruygur, “
Russia says taking steps to balance ‘entire security architecture’ in Europe amid NATO expansion,” Anadolu Agency, 06 April 2023
Lithuanian parliament adopts aspirations for NATO Vilnius Summit,” Lrt.lt, 06 April 2023
Ukraine: Unclear who sabotaged Nord Stream — Sweden,” Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2023
Kawala Xie, “
In meeting with Macron, Xi Jinping calls on China and France to push for political solution to Ukraine crisis,’ SCMP, 06 April 2023


06 April 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #480

War in Ukraine, Day 406: Putin emphasizes integrating the annexed regions in the Security Council me

Photo : Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine, Day 406:
Putin emphasizes integrating the annexed regions in the Security Council meet 

By Padmashree Anandhan

WAR ON THE GROUND
On 05 April, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s “Operational Command South” observation in the Black Sea. It revealed the deployment of 15 warships by Russia’s forces in the Black Sea. According to the report: “The naval group in the Black Sea grew to 15 warships, including as many as 6 missile carriers, 2 of which are submarines, which may indicate to an extremely high threat of a missile strike.”

On 05 April, Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy released a joint statement with Germany on expanding the energy partnership with a focus on “green recovery,” and reconstructing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Galushchenko the partnership will include government and businesses and he expects the cooperation to help in stabilising Ukraine’s energy system. 

On 05 April, on the situation in Bakhmut, Ukraine’s Border Guard Service reported on countering the attacks on Russia’s Wagner Group. The spokesperson said six groups of Wagner Group launched an attack in the same time which was “decimated” by Ukrainians through mortars, heavy machine guns, and snipers.

On 04 April, Ukraine’s Minister of Health, Viktor Lyashko confirmed receiving assistance from Canada’s Red Cross worth USD 220 million. He highlighted the issues faced by Ukraine’s health sector due to infrastructure damage, and economic inflation, which has strained access to medical care. Lyashko stated how the Canadian Red Cross and the Ukrainian Red Cross Society have been key in bringing initiatives to fill such gaps.


THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 05 April, Kremlin.ru reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s Security Council meeting. During the meeting, Putin discussed on ensuring rule of law, public security in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Criticising Ukraine for committing crimes through artillery and mortar attacks, he called for the integration of historical lands of Russia in Donbass and Novorossiya into its economic, legal and education sectors.

On 05 April, RT reported on Estonia’s technical regulatory authority (TTJA) move to block 53 websites which were used to view banned Russian channels. It was done to align with the EU’s sanctions. According to the TTJA Director, the per cent of trust in the Russian channels has decreased from 40 to 18 per cent and as per the census, Estonia has only a minor Russian speaking population.

On 05 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine for interrupting its “civil communication satellites. It called it a violation of international law. The reports state that the SpaceX support given to Ukraine had become the tools of conflict in the war.


THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 April, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda in a meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured to send all its MiG-29 fighter jets and vowed to “secure additional security” in the upcoming NATO summit in July. In response, Zelenskyy urged Poland’s acceptance of the refugees at the border could turn into a solid arrangement.

On 04 April, Romania’s Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu announced that Romania would allocate separate funds for NATO’s “defense potential development programs.” Under the initiative, it aims to give USD 800,000 to Ukraine and USD 750,000 to Moldova to boost their defence capabilities. Aurescu emphasized on supporting vulnerable areas of the EU to defence against Russia.

On 05 April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced NATO’s plans to create a “multi-year assistance” programme for Ukraine. This will focus on the transition, building institutions, and improving interoperability to push towards NATO membership. Stoltenberg said: “We do not know when this war will end, but when it does, we must ensure that President Putin cannot continue to chip away at European security.” The programme will ensure Ukraine’s integration into the “Euro-Atlantic.”


THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS 
Implications of the war

On 05 April, 49 countries, the EU objected Russia was using its power as a permanent member of the UNSC in the illegal deportation of people, children and spreading disinformation. In a statement: “These reprehensible actions have taken place in the context of the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, which we condemn unreservedly.”

On 05 April, IAEA Chief Rafel Grossi held talks with Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom Head, Alexei Likhachev on ensuring safety of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Since Russia claimed control of the are from March 2022, continued threats to the safety of the power plant has been raised.
 
References
Russia deploys six missile carriers in Black Sea – OC South,” Ukrinform, 05 April 2023
Канадський Червоний Хрест перерахував понад 220 млн доларів підтримки Україні,” moz.gov.ua, 04 April 2023
Ukraine and Germany are expanding energy partnership for the "green" restoration and reconstruction of the Ukrainian energy industry,” mev.gov.ua, 04 April 2023
Border guards repel Wagner Group assault in Bakhmut,” Ukrinform, 05 April 2023
Security Council meeting,” Kremlin.ru, 05 April 2023
EU country cracks down on Russian media,” RT, 05 April 2023
Ukraine is targeting Russian civilian satellites – Moscow,” RT, 05 April 2023
rumyniya-vydelit-750-tys-na-razvitiye-oboronnogo-potentsiala-moldovy,” newsmaker, 04 April 2023
NATO will start working on multi-year assistance program for Ukraine – Stoltenberg,” Ukrinform, 05 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Poland pledges gear as Zelenskyy visits,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2023
Statement on behalf of,” Canada Mission UN/Twitter, 05 April 2023


Europe in Brief
By Padmashree Anandhan

ESTONIA
Estonia to deploy 110-member unit in Iraq
On 05 April, ERR reported on Estonia’s Defence Forces statement on its plans to deploy unit of upto 110 members in Iraq for six months as part of the US’s “Operation Inherent Resolve.” This unit will handle the “base protection, rapid response and providing security for key personnel.” The unit will also include Estonian Special Operations Forces (ESTSOF), non-commissioned officers (NCOs). According to Estonian Defence Forces Commander: “The participation of our units in foreign operations has made a strong contribution to Estonia's good relations and ability to cooperate with our allies.” (“
Estonian Defense Forces company to be deployed to Iraq,” news.err.ee, 05 April 2023)

LATVIA
Latvia brings back mandatory defence service
On 05 April, Latvia’s Parliament adopted a law to re-introduce the compulsory national defence services. 68 members voted in favour while 11 were against, the service will include military and alternate civil services. If a person avoids the service, he will be subject to “criminal liability.” This will be mandatorily applicable to men born after January 2004 and for those men and women aged between 18 to 27 can apply voluntarily. They will be an option to be in the National armed forces for 11 months, or five years in National Guard or through five-year education programme assigned for Reserve Lieutenant. (“
Compulsory military service to be re-introduced in Latvia,” eng.lsm.lv, 04 April 2023)

REGIONAL
NATO foreign minister meet focused on threat rising from China’s ties with Russia
On 05 April, NATO Foreign Ministers continued the meeting for the second day. The meeting focused on China’s relations with Russia, where the NATO Secretary General highlighted how the legal aid of China to Russia would have “profound implications.” According to him, although China stands aloof from objecting to Russia in the invasion, its growing trade partnership despite sanctions raises concerns. The discussion also focussed on the impact of war in the Indo-Pacific and “global ramifications.” During the meeting, a proposal of keeping two per cent as the minimum defence target was also pledged as many EU member states such as Germany is yet to meet the target. (“
Newly enlarged NATO talks China and Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 05 April 2023)

CLIMATE CHANGE
France’s carbon emissions down by 8.5 per cent
On 03 April, France’s Energy Transition Minister reported on the reduction of France’s emissions by 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022. According to France’s carbon agency, the emission had reduced and without considering the imported products, the gas emission had gone down by 2.5 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021. This means France is now aligned with its target given under the “National Low-Carbon Strategy,” fixed in 2015. (Paul Messad, “
France saw 8.5% drop in CO2 last year, not enough to meet EU goals,” EURACTIV, 04 April 2023)


05 April 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #479

War in Ukraine, Day 405: Russia sends nuclear capable missile system to Belarus

Photo : Vasily Fedosenko/Reuters


War in Ukraine, Day 405:
Russia sends nuclear capable Iskander-M missile system to Belarus 

By Padmashree Anandhan

WAR ON THE GROUND
On 04 April, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Ministry released a notice on conducting the “First Black Sea Security Conference,” with Romania in mid-April. The conference aims to discuss the impact of the Ukraine war in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to address the challenges and threats. This will help draw an overall framework for regional security and discuss information warfare and cyber threats.

On 04 April, Ukraine’s Armed Forces released a statement on the state of Russian forces. It highlighted the lag in the logistics to keep up the ammunition supplies for Russian forces. This became the prime reason for the frontline not to take the offensive road. According to the spokesperson, Russia continued to mine in the Zaporizhzhia direction, while it also brazens (something wrong with the sentence formation here) its defence in the Crimean region. On the Ukraine forces, the spokesperson said that the main target lies in weakening the enemy and complicating the combat operations than launching a counteroffensive.


THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 04 April, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the transit of Iskander-M missile system to the Belarus Military. The system is reported to be capable of being nuclear-armed. He added that Belarus soldiers had begun training in Russia on from 03 April and Belarus aircraft have become capable of attacking with nuclear weapons.

On 04 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticised the EU for “deteriorating the relations with Russia.” He added that Russia would opt for a tougher approach, in “reciprocal” towards the EU for supporting Ukraine with weapons.


THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 04 April, NATO finalized Finland’s membership into NATO. Turkey and Hungary which remained the roadblocks cleared the way for Finland in March and the ratification was complete with Turkey’s parliament passing the vote in favour of Finland.

On 04 April, the intelligence update of the UK Ministry of Defence reported on Russia’s efforts to form an alternate private mercenary group similar to Wagner Group to replace it from the combat operation. According to the report: “Russia’s military leadership likely wants a replacement PMC that it has more control over.” The reason behind the move is said to be due to Russia’s belief in public acceptance of losses in the Mercenary Group compared to military personnel losses.

On 04 April, in the NATO Foreign Affairs, the Ministers are expected to discuss increasing aid and., a “muti-year support programme” to support Ukraine in moving out from the Soviet era and going forwards into Euro-Atlantic integration. The meeting is also expected to involve a discussion with Ukraine’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba in boosting cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.

On 04 April, the US announced its plan to provide USD 2.6 billion as military aid to Ukraine. In a statement released by Pentagon: “The United States will continue... to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.”


THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS 
Implications of the war

On 04 April, the UNHRC issued a resolution asking for access the information on the missing children and civilians who were reported to be transferred into the Russian-occupied territory. In the resolution, Russia was demanded to: “cease the unlawful forced transfer and deportation of civilians and other protected persons within Ukraine or to the Russian Federation.” Apart from this, the UNHRC voted on extending the investigation of war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine.
 
References
Ukraine and Romania will hold the First Black Sea Security Conference of the International Crimean Platform in Bucharest,” mfa.gov.ua, 03 April 2023
Russia does not have forces to go on offensive along entire front line,” Ukrinform, 04 April 2023
The Iskander-M missile system, capable of using nuclear missiles, was handed over to the Belarusian military, Shoigu said,” RIA NOVOSTI, 04 April 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 4 April 2023.,” UK Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 04 April 2023
NATO Foreign Ministers to discuss urgent aid to Ukraine, further support – Stoltenberg,” Ukrinform, 04 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Lavrov vows 'tough' reply to 'hostile' EU,” Deutsche Welle, 04 April 2023


04 April 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #478

Ukraine War Day 404: Australia to supply remote weapon systems to Ukraine

Photo : Ukraine War Day 404: Australia to supply remote weapon systems to Ukraine


War in Ukraine Day 404: Australia to supply remote weapon systems to Ukraine
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 03 April, Ukraine’s gas transmission system operator GTSOU issued a statement on the extension of the deal with Slovakia’s Eustream to increase gas imports. Initially, the GTSOU aided in providing a gas capacity of 42 million cubic meters in place of 27. Accounting for the new extension, the firm can provide 54 million cubic metres with additional capacity for four more. Therefore, under the current pressure of on gas supply and diversification of sources, maximum utilisation of existing gas storages proves to be potential according to GTSOU.

On 03 April, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on the ongoing training in the UK by the Norwegian National Guard. Under the training, the newly recruited were trained in “combat skills.” This is aimed to improve the security and capabilities of the armed force. On the same day, Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson highlighted the upper hand held by Russia in the war and to counter Ukraine needed an F-16 multi-purpose aircraft to carry out targets in air, ground and water (on the surface level). On the MiG-29 received from Slovakia and Poland, the spokesperson reported it to be outdated and with Ukraine pilots already trained to use F-16, having that would be an advantage.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 April, Russia’s Wagner Group Head Evgeny Prigozhin announced the success in capturing Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) by releasing a video from the city’s administrative building. He said: “We hoisted the Russian flag with the inscription ‘Good memory to Vladlen Tatarsky’ and the flag of PMC Wagner on top of the city administration of Bakhmut.” He added that the Group had taken over western districts. Ukraine has not confirmed on the development yet but has only reported on continuing losses for Russia in the battle.

On 03 April, RT reported on increasing fuel imports by the EU. It reported that Poland continued to be the largest importer of Russia’s LPG. While oil and petrol products are subject to sanctions, LPG remains sanction-free and highly imported. According to Unimot, Russia’s LPG company with the increased cost and logistical issue the price of the LPG is higher.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 April, International Policy Bureau Head announced the delivery of first MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. Under the partnership with Slovakia, Poland has planned to give 33 such aircrafts. In replacing the given aircrafts, Poland aims to buy US’s F-35s, modern equipment, and weapons.

On 03 April, UK Defence Ministry in its update commented on Russia’s Defence Ministry’s information operation. It revealed Russia’s efforts to rebuild its information operation due to its fallout in Ukraine. In a statement: “In reality, the 155th has likely been reduced to combat ineffective status at least twice in the last six months, due to being committed to tactically flawed frontal assaults near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.”
On 03 April, Croatia proposed treating injured soldiers through the Croatian hospitals and rehabilitation centres present there. According to Croatia’s Veteran Affairs Minister: “We expect Ukraine to prepare the first batch of 20 wounded fighters to be sent to Croatian hospitals for treatment.”
On 03 April, Denmark and Norway’s Ministry of Defence announced the joint agreement to provide 8,000 artillery shells along with fuses to Ukraine. The assistance will also include 19 Caesar “self-propelled howitzers.”


The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 03 April, UNESCO’s Director General met Ukraine’s first Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in Chernihiv. Discussing on the ongoing international cooperation in science, education, and culture, Zelenskyy indicated that 1190 “cultural objects” had been damaged in the war. The Director General issued a certificate confirming the inclusion of Odesa in the “List of World Heritage in Danger.”

On 03 April, Japan government issued an invite to Ukraine’s Digital Minister to participate in G7 digital and tech minister’s meeting. In the meeting, they are expected to talk about possible threats from Russia, China, and North Korea. During the gathering, they will also assess the impact of sanctions on Russia. Ukraine’s minister will have to share his experience in combatting Russia’s cyber attacks and gaps in telecommunication infrastructure during the meeting.         

On 03 April, Australia’s Electro Optic Systems (EOS) announced the contract with Ukraine to supply “Remote Weapon Systems” worth USD 80 million. This is to ensure boost accuracy, readiness, and reliability and it can be installed into vehicles, allowing the crew to operate inside the vehicle.
 
References
Ukraine, Slovakia extend increased firm capacity for gas imports,” Ukrinform, 03 April 2023
Fire control in defense: Norwegian instructors train Ukrainian military in Great Britain,” Ukrinform, 03 April 2023
Ukraine needs F-16s due to Russia's aerial superiority - Air Force spox,” Ukrinform, 03 April 2023
Wagner chief declares Artyomovsk ‘formally captured’,” RT, 02 April 2023
EU state boosts fuel imports from Russia – media,” RT, 03 April 2023
Jonasz Jasnorzewski,Robert Mazurek, “
Marcin Przydacz: Wołodymyr Zełenski w środę przyjedzie do Polski,” rmf24.pl, 03 April 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 3 April 2023.,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 03April 2023
David Spaic-Kovacic, “
Croatia offers to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers,” EURACTIV, 03 April 2023
Christian Baha, “
Norway, Denmark donate ammunition to Ukraine,” breakingthenews.net, 03 April 2023
President held a meeting with the Director General of UNESCO in the Chernihiv region,” president.gov.ua, 03 April 2023
Japan to gear up G-7 process through series of ministerial meetings,” Kyodo News, 03 April 2023
EOS to Supply Remote Weapon Systems to Ukraine,” eos-aus.com, 03 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav

BELARUS
Proposals for cooperation with Russia
On 03 April, Belarus’s President Aleksandr Lukashenko in a meeting with the Kaluga Oblast Governor Vladislav Shapsha discussed on boosting trade with Russia. In the aftermath of disrupted supply chains due to sanctions imposed by the West, Belarus is looking for counter-allies to promote industrial cooperation, introduce new high-tech technologies, and substitute imports. In trade and economic cooperation, Belarus has expressed readiness to engage in a detailed and substantive dialogue in the construction sector between Belarus and Kaluga Oblast. The agricultural sector is also a priority in Kalimantan Oblast, as the trade between Belarus and Kalgan Oblast remains USD 654 million, which has decreased by six per cent over 2021. While in 2022 it increased exports to the Russian region by almost 70 per cent, the trade deficit for Belarus remained. Henceforth, Belarus is ready to listen to and take on board all proposals to go beyond the designated range of cooperation areas according to Lukashenko ("Lukashenko seeks to achieve $1bn trade with Russia's Kalimantan Oblast," eng.Belta.by, 03 April 2023; "Lukashenko highlights the importance of Belarus-Russia cooperation," eng.Belta.by, 03 April 2023)

ESTONIA

Fears over the effect of the price rise by OPEC’s decision
On 04 April, ERR reported on the possibility of a rise in oil prices from the banking sector crisis. Even though oil prices recovered, the Estonia Oil Association (Eesti Õliühing) predicts the cut in oil production to be more than a million barrels a day, as the OPEC’s decision will soon reach Estonian gas stations. Since the price change on 17 March the global market price of gas increased by ten per cent, which is yet to impact Estonia. However, Estonia’s fuel retailer Neste Manager Risto Sülluste said: “If the prices continue to rise, a lot depends on internal competition, and on the positive side, we are moving away from diesel to summer fuel, which is cheaper than winter fuel. We hope that this will help to mitigate some of the price increases.” (Mart Linnart, "Oil Association: Price rises may soon affect Estonian gas stations," news.err.ee, 04 April 2023)

FRANCE

Macron’s French model of the end of life bill to be introduced soon
On 02 April, in the attempts by the French government, the Head of State announced a bill “end of life” care that will be presented to the Council of Ministers before the end of the summer. In the vote held after four months of work under the aegis of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (Cese), 184 members voted (76 per cent) in favour of active assistance to die, namely assisted suicide or euthanasia while 23 per cent voted against. French President Emmanuel Macron came out in favour of the development of palliative care as well in his remarks on the bill. He announced a national ten-year plan to be launched in this regard since more than twenty departments do not have specific service and promised to improve the health care services. (Gregoire Poussielgue, "End of life: Emmanuel Macron promises a bill for the summer," Les Echos, 03 April 2023)
 
ITALY

Proposal to ban the use of English and foreign words in formal communication
On 01 April, Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Meloni defended the Italian language, and the national identity proposed new legislation to penalize those who use English and other foreign words in official communications. The fine will be between EUR 5,000 and EUR 100,000. The legislation has been condemned by the Italy's most renowned scholars of Italian linguistics and philology. A member of Italy's lower Chamber of deputies, Fabio Rampelli tweeted: "In the lower chamber of deputies we speak Italian, we continue our battle for the use of our language instead of English." This new proposed legislation has pushed for a conservative approach that intends to virtually ban English words from public administration, schools, and universities. The proposed legislation is yet to go for parliamentary debate. (Gillian Carbonaro, "Ciao, hello, no! Italy's right-wing government wants to ban English words with €100,00 fines," Euronews, 03 April 2023)

REGIONAL

NATO declares the membership of Finland
On 04 April, NATO announced the joining of Finland as its 31st member. Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership in May 2022, stepping out from the military non-alignment stance. Upon membership, the Finnish flag will be raised at NATO headquarters in Brussels. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the move assures security in Finland, Nordic and overall NATO. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said in response to Finland's accession that Moscow would strengthen its military capacity. ("Finland to officially become 31st member this week," Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2023; "Finland to join NATO as Allied Foreign Ministers meet," nato.int, 03 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Trilateral talks between EU, France, and China on commercial ties to be held next week
On 03 April, Euronews reported on the upcoming visit of Macron and European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen to China. In 2022, China was the third largest partner for EU goods exports and the largest partner for the bloc's imports of goods, an important indicator of where relations between the two lie. However, the EU has accused China for bullying tactics to blackmail smaller countries into downplaying criticism of Chinese policies. The trilateral meeting will focus on the discussions on commercial ties including market access and fair competition practices. Sensitive technologies are observed to be key for bilateral relations but since China is still an export powerhouse and has access to European markets. However, the EU will focus on having its own strategy to maintain these cutting-edge technologies instead of being dependent on one actor or another. (Efi Koutsokosta, "All eyes on von der Leyen and Macron's high-stakes trip to China," Euronews, 03 April 2023)


03 April 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #477

Finland: Turkey greenlights its membership into NATO | Ukraine war: Day 402 & 403

Photo : Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Finland: Turkey greenlights its membership into NATO
On 30 March, Turkey’s General Assembly voted in favour of Finland to join NATO. It becomes the 30th NATO member to ratify after Hungary approved the same on 27 March. According to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party’s legislator: “As a NATO member, we naturally had some expectations and requests regarding the security concerns of our country.” Finland and Sweden which jointly applied for NATO membership in May 2022 was blocked by Turkey and Hungary citing the extradition of Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) categorized as terrorists by the EU and the US, combat against terrorism, and cooperation over arms exports.

On 30 March, Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö said: “Finland will be a strong and capable Ally, committed to the security of the Alliance.” On the same NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appreciated Turkey’s ratification: “I welcome the vote of the Grand National Assembly of #Türkiye to complete the ratification of #Finland’s accession. This will make the whole #NATO family stronger & safer.”

Sweden denying to extradite the PKK terrorists and burning of a Quran triggered more gap in Turkey agreeing to Sweden’s accession into NATO. This led Finland to pass a legislation on 01 March to go ahead alone with the membership process upon the condition of ratification by Turkey and Hungary.


What are the issues?
First, Turkey’s pressure points. One of the key reason behind the block was the extradition of PKK terrorists, since Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will face elections in May, to keep the domestic pressure off, stressing on the extradition was necessary. Next would be the long standing demand for F-16 fighter jets from the US which was put in the back seat after Turkey purchased Russia’s S-400 missile system. Lastly its complex but close relations with Russia in terms of its engagement in northern Syria, energy imports, and financial loans had kept it away from the approval. This has taken slight shift in past years upon Erdogan taking the “transactional” foreign policy approach.

Second, Finland’s accession into NATO. Finland which is know for the military neutrality, especially during the cold war became the member of the EU and collaborated with NATO in the peace programme, and exercises. The Ukraine war became the spark point to re-think its stance as it shared a direct border with Russia. Although the goal was to join along with Sweden, considering the security threat Finland along with Turkey and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum to close down the negations to enter NATO. Compared to Sweden, Finland was swiftly able detach itself from Sweden to join NATO alone and convinced Turkey into accepting its bid. This was through combatting terrorism and disinformation through new anti-terror laws, extradition of PKK individuals, granted first commercial export license to Turkey for military material. Upon the ratification, with completing the remaining procedures Finland is set to join NATO soon.

Third, European security. Finland’s membership into NATO is not just to secure the regional security but also adds 800 miles into NATO’s border extensing into the Baltic sea and arctic. Along with the ground advantage, Finland and Sweden are known for its “first-rate military forces,” especially Finland’s artillery forces. For Finland upon joining NATO meet its immediate threat of securing its 1300 kilometers border with Russia through a “mutual defence” guarantee.


What does this mean?
First, military advantage for NATO. Finland membership places NATO in an militarily strategic position to expand its exercises across the Baltic Sea and arctic. Although this heightens the risk of direct border with Russia, NATO has to ensure in preventing escalation. It’s access into Finland’s defence ministry and decision making guarantee’s security of Finland.

Second, From the Ukraine war point of view, it would be backlash for Russia, as Finland joining NATO has brought it more closer. Therefore the new red lines will push for new possibilities for Russia to re-strategize its position in the northern Europe and NATO’s operations in Finland.


War in Ukraine: Day 402 & 403
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 01 April, Ukraine President’s Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak commented on Russia holding the presidency of the UNSC as: “Symbolic blow to the rules-based system of international relations.” On the same Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytri Kuleba criticised the move and urged the council members to ensure Russia does not “abuse its presidency.”

On 01 April, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a decree imposing sanctions on companies, organisations and individuals who were found to be supporting Russia in the invasion. The sanctions target the “armament factories, military research institutes, Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the Federation Council,” applicable for 10 years. In the sanction list, Iran’s revolutionary guards were also included under the suspect of providing Kamikaze drones to Russia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 April, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu promised to boost the “munition supplies” to the Russian forces present in Ukraine. In a statement he said: “The volume of supplies of the most demanded ammunition has been determined. Necessary measures are being taken to increase them.”

On 02 April, Russia state investigative committee announced the death of 19 in a blast that took place in St. Petersburg café. In the blast, a Russian military blogger was reported to have died. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement blaming Ukraine for triggering “domestic terrorism.” Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the bombing as a “terrorist act.”

On 02 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was reported to have held a phone call with US Secretary of the State Antony Blinken. They discussed on creating smooth environment for the operation of diplomatic missions.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 April, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update made remarks on Russia’s progress in the Donbas region. The Ministry observed from the appointment of the Russia’s Chief who was to carry out the winter offensive to expand Russia’s control in the Donbas. Over eight days complete, the progress was found to be only “marginal.” In a statement: “Largely squandering its temporary advantage in personnel gained from the autumn's 'partial mobilisation.”

On 02 April, the UK intelligence released an update on the reason behind Russian causalities. Under the non-combat issues it found that “increased alcohol consumption, poor handling of weapons, road accidents, and hypothermia,” were the reason behind mass deaths. Close to 200,000 have been estimated to have died since the war began.

On 01 April, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced the recent deal with Ukraine to deliver “100 Rosomak multi-purpose armoured vehicles.” The vehicles are planned to be made in Poland under Finland’s license, funded by the EU and the US.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war

On 01 April, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un’s sister blamed Ukraine for wishing to possess nuclear weapons. The comment comes highlighting an online petition which stated Ukraine’s call to bring nuclear weapons into its territory. She called it a “political plot” of Zelenskyy.
 
References
Kuleba: Russian UN Security Council presidency 'a slap in the face to the international community',” The Kyiv Independent, 01 April 2023
Kyiv Orders 100 Rosomak Armored Vehicles From Poland: PM,” The Defense Post, 02 April 2023
Ukraine decries ‘symbolic blow’ as Russia assumes UN presidency,” Al Jazeera, 01 April 2023
Russia’s defense minister promises more munition supplies during Ukraine HQ visit,” english.alarabiya.net, 01 April 2023
Lavrov tells Blinken that it is up to court to decide about Gershkovich’s future,” TASS, 02 April 2023
Russian war blogger killed in St. Petersburg blast,” Deutsche Welle, 02 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Diplomat condemns German peace appeal,” Deutsche Welle, 02 April 2023
Ukraine updates: Russia takes UN Security Council presidency,” Deutsche Welle, 01 April 2023
Kim Jong-un's sister accuses Ukraine of "megalomania" in thinking it can defeat Russia,” pravda.com.ua, 01 April 2023


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

BULGARIA
Preliminary result of elections show close gap while political uncertainty remains
On 02 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the general election result in Bulgaria. In the preliminary results, conservatives and liberals were found to be competing in a small gap. The elections occurring for the fifth time in last two years as the party fail to form coalition government. In the report: “Ex-Prime Minister Kiril Petkov's liberal We Continue the Change (PP) and their allied Democratic Bulgaria (DB) took 24.9%.” For the first time in the election, Petkov’s party was able to form coalition with Pro-European DB. According to the report, the continues political chaos in Bulgaria was due to increased inflation, corruption and anti-corruption protests which have not resolved the problem but led to series of elections. (“Close race in Bulgaria's fifth election in two years,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2023)

FRANCE

Government imposes ban on use of electric scooters hired individually
On 02 April, the city government announced the ban on use of “for-hire electric scooters.” In the held vote, 89 per cent were in favour while 11 per cent were against the ban. The ban was imposed due to increased accidents and environment concern, the suggested alternatives are going by foot, bicycle and public transport. In response, Mayor Anne Hidalgo stated the vote as “public consultation,” which helped in settling the transport issue before 2024 Olympics. According to the companies that operate E-scooters, of the two million people who used the vehicle, 71 per cent were youth under 35. E-scooters considered the most popular among the tourists was one of the reason to call for the ban. (“Paris to ban e-scooters, despite tiny voter turnout,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2023)

REGIONAL

Olaf Scholz visit to Romania and Moldova 
On 03 April, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz met the Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis. During the visit, Scholz announced the installation of maintenance hub in Romania by German arms manufacturer “Rheinmetall.” In response Iohannis welcomed the move and called for increasing NATO’s operation in the Black Sea area. Part of the visit, Scholz is also expected to visit Moldova to discuss on how to support the government against the Russian-backed protestors. (“Scholz visits Romania to discuss Black Sea security,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2023)

Slovakia's ZVS holding to increase ammunition production
On 03 April, Slovakia’s acting Defence Minister, Jaroslav Nad announced new set of measures to increase the production of artillery ammunition. The semi-state owned company ZVS holding  which was initially producing 25,000 rounds every year, in 2022 increased to 50,000 and this is expected to increase further in 2024. The same was confirmed by Slovakia’s spokesperson: “The capacity increase will be in two phases, the first from 1 January 2024 and the second from 1 January 2025. This increase is linked to the delivery dates of the production equipment needed for the production of ammunition.” Since the company’s production falls under “EU-wide initiative” to creation of more ammunition, the Slovakia government is looking at means to get finance from the EU. (Michal Hudec, “Slovakia to increase ammo production fivefold, says defence minister,” EURACTIV, 03 April 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Credit Suisse merger puts 11,000 jobs under risk 
On 02 April, Tages-Anzeiger a Swiss newspaper reported on the possibility of the Swiss Bank UBS of laying off 30 per cent of its staff after acquiring Credit Suisse. Till now UBS has accepted three billion Swiss Francs in the government mediated deal to help Credit Suisse. Eventually it has been discovered that the Credit Suisse holds USD 1.6 trillion worth assets and employs 120,000 across the globe. Therefore, upon merger with no specification given, close to 11,000 jobs are at risk. (“UBS to slash up to 36,000 jobs after Credit Suisse merger,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2023)


14 March 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #460

French senate approves pension reform bill: Three issues | Ukraine war: Day 383

Worker strike in Germany; Poland's new anti-tank barriers; nuclear energy divide in Switzerland

Photo : Reuters/Indian Express


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

French Senate passes the pension reform bill: Three issues
On 11 March, before the senate meeting to vote on the pension reform bill, a set of protests was staged. Those who opposed the increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64 gathered across France, majorly in Paris. According to France’s Interior Ministry close to 368,000 had took part while the CGT labour union reported one million. The nature of protests was observed to be massive due to France’s President Emmanuel Macron rejection to meet the union leaders. On 11 March, using a quicker voting process to vote on entire bill than going by article and amendments, the upper chamber of the parliament voted in favour approving the pension reform. Upon the clearance, the final draft will be submitted for final vote of upper house and national assembly. Macron’s lacking majority, the challenge would be rely on Les Republicans to support in the vote.

Three issues
First, concern of the protestors. The group of the protestors did not limit to the aged population or members of labour unions, but it also comprised youth. Key concern of the protestors was not restricted to the pension plan but it questioned the social system. While health, contribution to pension and right to social benefit topped the list. There were issues over excluding “physical arduous jobs” from the reform, restoration of wealth tax, job protection, and higher wages.

Second, persistent efforts to pass the reform bill. The first attempt on the extension of the retirement age was done under Macron’s first term and in the second term, the decisiveness is even high. After months of discussion, and continuing massive protests, till 07 March Senate failed to vote on the extension of the retirement age. This changed after the Les Republican party leader proposed for Article 38 “closure of debates,” to ensure the reduction of debate over the bill or any amendment. This gave way for reform bill to be passed.

Third, a wishing wand for Marine Le Pen. The intense nature of the protestors and the anger of the labour union is benefitting none but the opposition. Le Pen who closed down twice with Macron in the elections adds advantage from the chaos created from the pension reform bill and the fading popularity of Macron.

References:
“‘Live to work or work to live?’: Why France's youth are fighting Macron’s pension reform,” france24, 08 February 2023
Protesters in France urge President Macron to scrap pension reform plans,” euronews, 12 March 2023
France's Sénat passes controversial pension reform,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023
'A gift to Marine Le Pen': France's pension reform protests, seen through the eyes of international press,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023
French pension reform: Senators fail to vote on retirement age,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 383
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 13 March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his address stated that winning Bakhmut and the situation in the front line would be a decider for Ukraine. He added: “It is very tough in the east — very painful. We have to destroy the enemy's military power. And we will destroy it.” According to the report in Deutsche Welle, the “trench warfare” in the zone incurred heavy losses for Ukraine and Russia. 

On 13 March, Ukraine’s military analyst Oleh Zhdanov in an interview with Reuters highlighted how Ukraine has begun to send its reserved for the fight in Bakhmut. He warned over the use of such reserves as they were scheduled to be used for counter offensives. According to Oleh: “If we simply give up Bakhmut and withdraw our troops and equipment, nothing terrible can happen.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 March, TASS reported on extension of the grain deal. Russia stated that it would continue automatically if there are no objections from the parties to the agreement. It conditioned that it would agree the extension period to be only half of the 120-day of the earlier renewal.

On 13 March, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that relations between Russia and China had been the major support to the stability. On the same day Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stressed that Russia’s priority will remain to win war through military means and it does not foresee any “preconditions” in the war to shift into a peaceful course.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 13 March, Germany’s Air Force issued on statement on the usage of its fighter jets. Since August 2022, the group has deployed fighter jets 27 times in the Baltic area. During the operation it identified Russia’s military aircraft and the air force’s Eurofighter had issued an alert without transponder or radio. Till now the three Baltic states which lack their own air forces, has now been utilised by the NATO in the Ämari and Siauliai in Lithuania zones to oversee the airspace position in the Baltic.

On 13 March, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban discussed on the EU’s stance in Ukraine war. Orban termed the war as “indirect war” and Macron recalled for the united posture of the EU to face Russia. They also discussed on Finland and Sweden’s accession.

On 13 March, the UK announced the update to its foreign policy framework on investing additional GBP five billion to its armed forces in next two years. This means the total defence expenditure will now come to 2.5 per cent of its GDP. Of the allotted five billion, three is expected to be spent on nuclear and submarine capabilities and remaining to help Ukraine restock its weapons.

References
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy says future depends on Bakhmut,” Taiwannews, 13 March 2023
Russia's goals in Ukraine now can only be achieved by military means, says Kremlin,” TASS, 13 March 2023
Grain deal to be extended automatically unless sides object — source,” TASS, 14 March 2023
Rishi Sunak pledges £5 billion for defence as UK faces a ‘volatile’ world,” independent.co.uk, 13 March 2023
Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 383 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 13 March 2023
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy says future depends on Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2023


IN BRIEF 
By Femy Francis

ALBANIA
Population reduces by 1.3 per cent says INSTAT
On 13 March, Euractiv reports that the Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) published that there has been a 1.3 per cent decline in the Albanian population in 2022. Further, there has been a drop in the birth rate and this is further aggregated by young people emigrating from the country every year. In the last decade, only some 700,000 people have left the country with the country’s population reaching 2.79 million in 2022 a drop from 2.83 million in 2021. The data when analyzed is more worrisome as the people migrating from Albania are relatively young belonging to the age group of 20-24. It is estimated that 15,000 people left and that there has been a decline of 6,300 people in the age group of 25- 29 years old. This means the number of people who aid and provide for economic activity has drastically decreased with a down of 32,000. Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama said, “These people return with a different mentality, they come with some experience, and they open enterprises, they do things differently, and they make successes,” he said: “I think we should we should do everything to keep going, to improve conditions.” (Alice Taylor, “Albanian population fell by 1.3%, mainly youth, in 2022,” Euractiv, 13 March 2023)

DENMARK
Total aid to the Ukraine war has made a significant difference
On 13 March, Acting Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen of Denmark stated that their contribution to the Ukraine war was DKK five billion. Throughout the war, they have been provided with armed vehicles, drones and training the soldiers and a few weapons exchanges have been Denmark’s donations for the war. Poulsen said: Denmark developed the Harpoon coastal defence system so that it suited Ukrainian conditions and, together with other countries, donated missiles which gave the Ukrainians the opportunity to prevent Russian attacks in the Black Sea.” Denmark has provided vital support for the war but the with depleting nation reserves can put the nation at compromise and therefore they need more support. (“Troels Lund Poulsen: Danish donations have made a big difference in Ukraine,” Fmn.dk, 13 March 2023)

GERMANY
200 Flights cancelled as German workers hold strike demanding higher pay 
On 13 March, 200 flights were cancelled in Germany affecting 27,000 passengers as the workers went to strike over the demand for higher pay and against the unsociable working hours.  This walkout was initiated by the Verdi trade union over pay for working nights, weekends and bank holidays. The union is demanding a 10.5 per cent raise and they have been offered a five per cent raise by their employers. The unions have refused to accept the offer stating that they are insufficient to make a difference in their expenses. (“Germany: Flights cancelled as workers strike over pay,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2023)

POLAND
Defence Minister announced the installation of anti-tank barriers
On 13 March, LRT English reports that Poland is taking measures to erect anti-tank barriers along the route of Belarus and Kaliningrad. This was announced by Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak as a move to protect itself from possible aggression. National Security and Defence (NSGK) have suggested Lithuania also invest in border fortification and the required measure that needs to be taken, while the Lithuania still is only considering if it wants to. The threats from Russia and Belarus can be problematic and therefore it's suggested that Lithuania works together with Poland.  Retired Colonel Vaidotas Malinionis said: “We are connected by the Suwalki Gap, and we have a common interest in securing that particular area from the Kaliningrad and Belarusian side.” (Vilius Narkūnas, “Poland builds anti-tank barriers on its borders. Should Lithuania follow suit?, ” LRT English, 13 March 2023)
 
SWITZERLAND
Divide amongst the residents over nuclear energy plan to id the energy issue 
 On 13 March, Sotomo Institute reported that they survey 9,000 residents out of which 55 per cent supported nuclear power energy should be used to solve the issue of the energy crisis. While 64 per cent opposed the initiation of a Swiss nuclear power plant by 2037. Nuclear energy still remains the third choice after solar and wind power energy where 77 per cent were in favour of their installations and the building of wind turbines or hydroelectric power to aid the energy issue. (“Swiss split over nuclear power to plug energy shortages, ” Swissinfo, 13 March 2023)

REGIONAL
EU and Greece delayed in creating provisions for train safety 
On 13 March, Euractiv reports that the EU and Greece for years have been trying to form a modern safety system for railway cross-border interoperability that could possibly connect the rest of Europe. This comes after the rail accident that cost 57 people's lives as there have been multiple delays in the provision to be put into action due to Greece’s insufficient investment planning and the EU not monitoring it properly. In the early 2000s, EU and Greece wanted to upgrade train safety systems and install digital mechanisms to avoid any form of ‘human error’ which was never implemented. EU commissions admit project delays with many projects having the deadline being 2023 while this does not disqualify expenditure till the said deadline. (Sarantis Michalopoulos, “REVEALED: Greece, EU lost in Babel of train safety deals,” Euractiv, 13 March 2023) 

REGIONAL
STRATCOMCOE investigates social media companies' inability to detect manipulation
On 13 March, NATO’s Strategic Communications Center of Excellence (STRATCOMCOE) published a report called “Social Media Manipulation” in the year 2022-2023. Where the research found how easy it is to manipulate facts and opinions on social media platforms and that online companies are unwilling to do anything about it. They held an experiment called the “inauthentic interactions” to test how well social media platforms are at detecting manipulations. The report spend EUR 168 on fake engagements “225 comments, 6,560 likes, 15,785 views, and 3,739 shares on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, TikTok and VKontakte, enabling them to identify 6,564 accounts used for social media manipulation purposes. Of the 27,309 fake engagements purchased, more than 93 per cent remained online and active four weeks later.” (“STRATCOMCOE: It's 'easy to circumvent sanctions' to buy Russian manipulation online,” Latvian Public Broadcasting, 13 March 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
SVB collapse to not affect Estonia and the European banking sector
On 13 March, EER News reports that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will not affect Estonia or the European banking sector. As the issue will be limited to the business limited sector and limited to specific banks whereas the steps taken by Federal banks would minimize the collateral damage as they provide assurance. A startup Head Eve Peeterson said: “while some companies do have money in SVB, no problems have been reported so far. All these banking concerns are often linked to speculation and fears.” (Mart Linnart,“ Experts: Estonia, Europe unlikely to be impacted by US banks collapsing,” EER News, 13 March 2023)


13 March 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #459

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s India visit | Ukraine war: Day 381 & 382

Germany reports rise in crime rate; SIPRI reports increase in Europe's arms imports; collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Photo : AP/The Hindu


EM Comment
By Himani Pant

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s India visit: Taking bilateral relations to the next level
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paid his first state visit to India on 25-26 February 2023 and visited New Delhi and Bengaluru. He had earlier visited India in his capacity as the mayor of Hamburg in 2012. He held extensive talks with PM Modi on the bilateral, regional and international issues. The scope was wide ranging aimed at boosting cooperation on multiple domains including clean energy, trade, science and new technologies, among others. The official statement states that talks led to G2G outcomes such as the India-Germany Vision to Enhance Cooperation in Innovation and Technology, and the Letter of Intent between Department of Science & Technology and Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems for Cooperation in Green Hydrogen and Clean Energy Technologies.

The outcomes included- announcement on organization of the Asia Pacific Conference (APK) in India in 2024; a memorandum of understanding between Skill Council of Green Jobs and Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft; SFC Energy AG and FC TecNrgy Pvt Ltd: Incorporation of SFC’s Indian subsidiary and cross-shareholding with Indian partner. While the two did not issue a joint statement, they released a common paper titled “India-Germany Vision to Enhance Cooperation in Innovation and Technology” mentioned in G2G outcome above.


Economic significance
The economic agenda of the visit was clear. Chancellor Scholz was accompanied by a business delegation that included CEOs major German companies such as Siemens and SAP, along with the heads of Germany's small and medium-sized business associations. A business roundtable was held to take suggestions from industry leaders of both countries, on topics such as digital transformation, FinTech, IT, telecom, and diversification of supply chains, so on.

Robust economic linkages form an important pillar of India-Germany ties, both bilaterally and within the European Union (EU). On a bilateral level, Germany is among its top ten trading partners of India. It also occupies the largest share of India’s trade with the EU.  The total bilateral trade between the two countries stood at USD 24.8 billion (EUR 23.4 billion) in 2021-22. Germany is the ninth largest foreign investor in India, with cumulative foreign direct investment inflows of USD 13.8 billion from April 2000 to September 2022. There are about 1800 German companies active in India, primarily in the transportation and automobile sector, electrical apparatus, chemical, and metallurgical industry, insurance services and construction projects.


Political and strategic significance
During their interaction, Chancellor Scholz and PM Modi also discussed ways to make security and defence cooperation an important pillar of the India-Germany strategic partnership given Germany’s interest in building conventional submarines for India.

Chancellor’s visit comes at a crucial time, a day after the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine. Since the commencement of the war and the resultant supply chain disruptions amid West-Russia isolation, India has insisted on resolving the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. During Chancellor Scholz’s visit too, India reaffirmed its commitment to contribute to any peace process on the issue.

The visit is also a reflection of the enhancing dialogue between the two countries in the last few years despite global uncertainty. In December 2022, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also visited India and signed a mobility partnership pact to make it easier for people to study and work in each other's country. Apart from the bilateral aspect of engagement, the increased exchanges have also been facilitated by the resumption of the Free Trade Agreement negotiations between the EU and India following the leaders’ summit in 2021.

In addition, India and Germany have been strategic partners for the last two decades and have engaged in regular intergovernmental consultations every two years since 2011. It was the first standalone by any German Chancellor since the commencement of such consultations.


People to people ties
During his visit, Chancellor Scholz also met young Indian scholars studying international relations in New Delhi, prospective students going to Germany and other skilled professionals in Bengaluru. In the last few years, the People-to-people relations between India and Germany have also strengthened, an aspect which has benefitted further by the signing of the Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement in December last year. Given Indian students’ preference for pursuing higher education in Germany, especially in the disciplines related to science and technology, the agreement is beneficial for prospective students. At the same time, it is also beneficial for Germany as it needs more IT specialists and other skilled workers to work in Germany.

Taking bilateral relations to the next level
Chancellor’s visit to India must be understood in the context of the current geopolitical flux the current backdrop of a global geopolitical flux which has been exacerbated by the aftereffects of COVID-19 and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The supply chain disruptions, coupled with reservations regarding economic dependence on an assertive China have strengthened the need for reliable partnerships. In this context, a budding India-Germany partnership which is underpinned by shared values, trust, and mutual understanding of each other's interests, carries great potential and is a win-win situation for both countries. Chancellor Scholz’s visit to India was wide in scope and addressed targeted some key areas like climate action and sustainable development goals, renewable energy, green hydrogen, and bio-fuels, so on, while focusing on ways to enhance economic and business ties.

The mutual political will to enhance cooperation, coupled with promising areas of cooperation in new and emerging technologies carries bright prospects for a strong India-Germany partnership. This in turn, could enable a reliable partnership between the two countries to deal with future challenges.


About the Author
Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi


War in Ukraine: Day 381 & 382
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 11 March, Ukrinform reported on Kharkiv’s nature management committee estimated a total environmental damage of UAH two trillion during the war. This includes “land and air pollution, burned forests, and destroyed objects.” According to the committee, it will be assessing the damage to the environment on the basis of intentional or accidental. Ukraine’s Environmental Ministry has urged the government agencies to draft concept and restoration programme to bring back Ukraine’s ecology.

On 11 March, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba demanded Germany to fasten the ammunition delivery due to the growing shortages. He remarked that Ukraine does not expect fighter jets to be supplied but the Ukrainian soldiers require training.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 March, TASS reported on Russia’s Air Defence claims on shelling down Ukraine’s “two Mi-8 helicopters, seven HIMARS and Uragan rockets. On the same day, Russia’s retired Colonel Andrey Marochko reported on Russia’s air force position in critical industrial zone of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). He said: “..to control the movement of the enemy and also creates a good bridgehead for further advancement.”  

On 11 March, the Wagner group Founder released a video from Bakhmut confirming the advance of the forces into Bakhmut and capturing of the eastern part of the city. He said the Russian forces are near to the center, 1.2 kilometres away from the administrative center.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 11 March, ISW on the contrary to the claims of the Wagner Group Founder, observed no advance by Russia in Bakhmut. Although the report confirms a heavy shelling and due to the group hold in “urban areas,” advancing could be difficult. On 12 March, ISW brought out the possible clash between Russia’s military and the Wagner Group over heading the war and securing ammunition.

On 11 March, Denmark’s Defence Ministry issued a statement on the delivery of first set of Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine. The project was carried under the collaboration of Denmark, Netherlands and Germany, which has pledged to provide 100 tanks to Ukraine. On the same day, Canada announced a ban on Russia’s steel and aluminium product imports along with iron, non-alloy steel and semi-finished goods such as tubes and pipes.

On 11 March, the UK Ministry of Defence confirmed the advance of Wagner Group in the front line of Bakhmut and warned that it would be difficult for the group to go further. In a statement: “It will be "highly challenging" for Wagner forces to push ahead, as Ukraine has destroyed key bridges over the river. Ukrainian sniper fire from fortified buildings further west has made the thin strip of open ground in the center "a killing zone.”

On 12 March, UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update reported on the intensity of the causalities in Russia. It observed Russia’s elite cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg seem to have no damages, whereas the eastern regions the number of deaths were 30 times high. The Ministry also reported on how the ethnic minorities experienced the worst damage accounting for 75 per cent.

On 12 March, Switzerland’s State Secretary for Migration reported on the total registration of refugees totalling to 75,000 at six asylum centres. According to the State Secretary, before the war, 11,000 Ukrainians lived in Switzerland, who bridged in taking the other fleeing after war. The count of the Ukrainian refugees at present is three times of those from Afghanistan, Turkey, Syria.

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 12 March, the Government of UAE announced a humanitarian support of USD 100 million to Ukraine. The move follows the meet Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister and UAE’s Economy Minister to Ukraine. UAE has also volunteered to give five million “energy-saving LED lamps.”   

References
An on-site meeting of the Committee on Environmental Policy and Nature Management was held in Kharkiv,” kharkivoda.gov.ua, 10 March 2023
Russia takes advantageous positions for further advance in Artyomovsk industrial zone,” TASS, 12 March 2023
Two Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters, 7 HIMARS, Uragan rockets downed during day,” TASS, 12 March 2023
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 12, 2023,” ISW, 12 March 2023
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 11, 2023,” ISW, 11 March 2023
The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is continuing.,” UKMOD/Twitter, 12 March 2023
Ukraine updates: Wagner captures most of Bakhmut's east,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2023
75,000 Ukrainian refugees registered in Switzerland since war started,” Ukrinform, 12 March 2023
Troels Lund Poulsen: Tanks ready for the Ukrainians in the spring,” fmn.dk, 11 March 2023
Canada bans Russian aluminum and steel imports,” canada.ca, 10 March 2023
UAE provides $100M in humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 12 March 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

FINLAND 
Adopts Sami Climate Change Council Decree 
On 09 March, Government of Finland plans adopted the decree on Sami Climate Council to address climate change. The council is an independent body under the Climate Act, which looks at the issue of climate change from the perspective of the Sami people and their community. They are an indigenous group that inhabits the northern region of Europe, their traditional practices and cultural practices are intertwined with the Arctic environment which makes them highly vulnerable to the climate change process. The Sami Council wants to focus on the climate initiative discourse to focus and include Sami voices and perspectives. Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Maria Ohisalo said: “The warming climate has very particular impacts on the Sámi culture and traditional livelihoods that are based on the Arctic environment. This is why it is an absolute necessity to integrate the knowledge of the indigenous Sámi people strongly into the decision-making concerning climate policy.” The climate change effects can be visible in the arctic region which directly affects the lives of the Sami people therefore their perspective is vital in the world initiative to curb climate change. (“Finland adopts decree on Sámi Climate Council to bring indigenous knowledge into climate policy processes,” Helsinki Times, 10 March 2023)

FRANCE
Pension Reform Bill approved in the senate, final draft yet to be approved by National assembly 
On 11 March, the French Senate voted in favour of the Pension Reform Bill proposed by President Emmanuel Marcon. The bill was passed with 195 to 112 votes for pushing the retirement age from 62 to 64. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said: “It is a key step to make a reform happen that will guarantee the future of our pension system.” There will be a final draft produced for the bill and then represented in the Senate and National Assembly. This would be a test for Macron’s government as they don't have an absolute majority in the National assembly and the French lower house. The party would aim to gather votes from Les Republicans to approve the bill, if not a highly controversial provision under Article 49/3 can be used for legislation approval without voting. With the approval in Sentae, the protests are going strong in the Senate as thousands of people gather. (“French Senate votes to raise retirement age amid protests,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2023)

GERMANY
Germany’s Federal Criminal Police reports a rise in crime rate against press
On 13 March, Deutsche Welle reports that Germany’s Federal Criminal Police (BKA) stated they have recorded 320 criminal acts committed against journalists in the year 2022. The attacks can be categorized as 320 were politically motivated, 46 were purely violent threats, 31 were related to property damage and 27 owing to incitement. The Saxony region was the most affected with 69 crimes reported, 66 in Berlin and 40 in Bavaria. The Left Party first came up with a report stating that the rise of attacks against police was owed to the Coronavirus Protest where there were 64 instances registered. The left party spokesperson said, “Recorded crimes against media professionals reached a sad new high in 2022. This also applies to violent crimes, one-third of which — as in the previous year — were committed in connection with COVID-related protests.” (“Germany sees record number of crimes against the press: report," Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2023)

Shooting in Hamburg Jehova’s witness hall kills seven 
On 09 March, seven people were killed in a shooting sphere at Jehovah’s witness hall in Hamburg. The suspect Philipp gunned down for allegedly having “ill feelings” towards to religious community, it is to be noted that he was previously was a member of the said community. Additionally, eight people were injured among those were Ugandian and Ukrainian nationals. The suspect then went ahead and killed himself when the police were looking to apprehend him minutes after the said attack. The Jehovah’s witness community issued a statement: “Deeply saddened by the horrific attack on its members at the Kingdom Hall in Hamburg after a religious service.” (Jenny Hill in Hamburg, Jaroslav Lukiv, “Hamburg shooting: Seven killed in attack on Jehovah's Witness hall,” BBC, 09 March 2023)

The UK
Junior Doctors to hold three-day strike for higher pay demands
On 13 March, Financial Times reports that NHS junior doctors are planning to go on major strike for three consecutive days demanding higher pay. This walkout is different as unlike nurses and ambulance which maintained their emergency services, Junior doctors walkout have not agreed to such arrangements for maintenance services. This comes as a major hit to health and emergency services and might lead to major unpredictable mass casualty by postponing consultancy. According to the BMA survey, 98 per cent of junior doctors proposed a strike. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “It is very disappointing that the junior doctors union are not engaging with the government. We are actually having constructive dialogue with other unions who have accepted our offer to come in and talk . . . I would urge the junior doctors to follow suit.” (Sarah Neville, Bethan Staton and Philip Georgiadis,“ NHS braced for three-day walkout by junior doctors,” Financial Times, 13 March 2023) 

Rishi Sunak proposes to increase defence spending by EUR five billion 
On 12 March, UK's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to push for military spending of EUR five billion for UK defence amid threats from Russia and China. The funding would be provided in a span of two years to revive the ammunition stocks that have been depleting due to exports to Ukraine. The plan further looks into modernizing submarines to further strengthen defence capacity. This comes in light of the US, UK and Australia pact which plans to provide Australia with submarines to keep Chinese aggression in check. Sunak said: “The UK will remain a leading contributor to Nato and a reliable international partner, standing up for our values from Ukraine to the South China Sea.” (Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe in San Diego and John Paul Rathbone, “Rishi Sunak promises to ‘fortify’ Britain against threats from Russia and China,” Financial Times, 13 March 2023)

REGIONAL 
SIPRI forecasts increase in arms exports of the US and France 
On 13 March, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that there has been a significant rise in arms export in the European regions with US exports reaching record highs. The arms imports to Europe from the US increased by 47 per cent and by 65 per cent by NATO. This rise is owed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine where the five main exporters in order are the US, Russia, France, China and Germany. The US accounts for 40 per cent of global arms trade with a recent hike of 14 per cent included, there has been a record shift in France’s arms trade seeing a record high 44 per cent increase and reaching position number three. Germany’s latest visit to India can bee was seen to aim at encouraging India to stop relying on Russian arms supply and work with Europe. China has seen a dip in arms trade with only 23 per cent in exports while Russian arms trade is majorly providing for Africa surpassing China. (Christoph Hasselbach, “SIPRI: US arms exports skyrocket, while China's nosedive,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2023)

Dutch farmers hold protests against nitrogen emission-cutting plans
On 11 March, 10,000 farmers protested in The Hague against government plans for limiting nitrogen emissions. The Dutch protestors came in tractors to join in the protest and held signs reading, “No farmers, no food” and waved upside-down flags protests. The massive livestock and heavy usage of fertilizers aid in the increased production of nitrogen oxides in soil and water.  The Dutch government plans cuts emission by 50 per cent by 2030 a provision reasoned to facilitate the quality of land and water. Another protest was held nearby by climate activists demonstrating against the fossil fuel subsidization provisions. (“Dutch farmers, climate activists hold protests in The Hague,” Deutsche Welle, 11 March 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Belarusian president to reach Iran for their 30 years anniversary of bilateral relations
On 18 March, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko will be meeting Iran officials as the country celebrates their 30 years of diplomatic relations. The discussion plans to look into developing their bilateral relations and cooperation and the meeting will be focused on expanding trade and economic provisions between the two countries. They plan to further focus on relations on developing industry, agriculture transport and logistics and to work as a region. (“Lukashenko off to Iran on an official visit,” Belta, 12 March 2023)

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, UK government finding provisions to fund 
On 13 March, The Guardian reported on the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank which would be protected by the UK government as they look to establish an emergency deal. The SVB is a venture capital financing that has sent shockwaves to Global markets. It's estimated that USD 175 billion of customer deposits in under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which ensures full access by the depositors. The issue came when the customer's withdrawals led to the liquidation of securities caused by Federal Reserves interest rate hikes.. The rise in customers' withdrawals was owed to their securities being sold for less prices than they bought them from. The UK PM Rishi Sunak has proposed to look to provide for cash lifeline to support startups. The US has announced its own emergency support for the affected customers, with other regulators offering USD 25 billion in emergency lending. Bank of London Chief Executive said: “Silicon Valley Bank cannot be allowed to fail given the vital community it serves.” (Kalyeena Makortoff, Aubrey Allegretti, “UK racing to secure a deal to protect firms from Silicon Valley Bank collapse,” The Guardian, 13 March 2023)


10 March 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #457

War in Ukraine: Day 379

Photo : REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko//File Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 379
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 09 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on sporadic strikes across Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv, which affected the power supply. Ukraine’s Air Force claimed on Russia’s missile launches numbered to 81 along with eight Shahed drones and six Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister called the attack as “just Russian barbarism.” 

On 09 March, Ukraine’s nuclear energy generating company Energoatom reported on power outage due to the attack on the power grid. In a statement: “Today, the last line of communication between the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP and the Ukrainian power system has been cut off. Fuel for operation remains for ten days.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 March, the Wagner Group Head, Yevgeny Prigozhin continue to claim the capture of east part of Bakhmut. This is yet to be confirmed, but Ukraine armed forces has said that in spite of massive loss, Russia still continues to fight in Bakhmut. 

On 09 March, on the Nord Stream pipeline damage, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to report in The New York Times. He stressed on finding out those responsible behind the damage and added that Russia would not blow “its own infrastructure.” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted Saudi Arabia’s efforts in facilitating the prisoner exchange with Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 09 March, on the fighting in Bakhmut, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg observed more troops being deployed by Russia, while the quality is limited as it focuses on quantity. Despite Russia facing too many losses, capturing of Bakhmut can still be possible according to Stoltenberg.

On the same day, EU Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borell proposed for an additional spending of EUR one billion to purchase ammunition for Ukraine and replenish EU’s stock. This came after the defence minister’s meeting.

On 09 March, following Poland’s statement on providing fighter jets to Ukraine, Slovakia’s Defence Minister said that they will soon decide on sending the MiG-29 fighters jets.

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 09 March, on the Russian attacks on the Ukraine’s energy grid, IAEA Head Rafael Grossi urged the board of governors to ensure protection of Zaporizhzhia plant. He mentioned that it was sixth time the plant went short of power completely and has been functioning on emergency mode. 


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

BELGIUM
Prime minister proposed a new migration deal 
On 08 March, Belgium announced a new migration provision presented by Prime minister Alexander De Croo. Belgium's migration system has been criticised for failing to aid asylum seekers. Migration State Secretary Nicole de Moor said: “With this first package of measures, we are on the path to reform. Reception places will only be allocated to those who are undergoing an asylum procedure, cooperation on return will be enshrined in law, abuses will be combated, and vulnerable persons will be protected.” They would provide the asylum seekers with new housing facilities made up of shipping containers located at 700 new locations. Another focus of the provision would be on outflows and aiding the return policy of the migrants, with that children would be granted refugee status and the parents can apply for humanitarian regularization to stay with them (Anne-Sophie Gayet, “Belgium announces new migration deal,” Euractiv, 10 March 2023)

GERMANY
43 per cent support the reintroduction of compulsory military service says survey
On 10 March, Deutsche Welle reports that a survey was conducted on the reintroduction of military service by the Ipsos MORI group. They took a sample survey of 1000 eligible voters from varied age groups and their opinion. Wherein, the majority of Germans wanted to restore the compulsory military service that was suspended in 2011. Additionally, they wanted this rule to apply to both genders. The aggregate was 43 per cent supported the compulsory service for both men and women, while 18 per cent supported that this should only be applied to men. The polls also convey that most people who supported this provision are in the older age bracket and those who don't have to face military service. Since the invasion of Ukraine, there has been an urgency in Germany to create a stronger military and introduce a special one-off fund of EUR 100 billion. (“Most Germans want compulsory military service return — poll,” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2023) 

KOSOVO
EU grants Visa-free travel for Kosovo passport holders 
On 09 March, the European Council adopted the provision for visa-free travel by Kosovo passport holders. This new provision allows Kosovo passport holders to visit EU countries without a visa for a period of 90 days. The Swedish Minister said, “Kosovo has made great efforts to improve its security and migration management and to align its visa policy with that of the EU. We hope our cooperation in these fields will continue to be fruitful." (“Kosovo: Council gives green light to visa-free travel,” European Council, 09 March 2023)

CLIMATE
Europe records the second mildest winter 
On 08 March, the EU scientists announced that according to the climate monitor, Europe saw the second-warmest winter ever to be recorded. The mild winter was a relief to the citizens amid Russia and Ukraine wars and the soaring prices faced due to inflation, this change in temperature is an indication of wording climate change. EU Copernicus Climate Change service shows a 1.4 degree rise in temperature. The high winter was faced by countries from France to Hungary which also led to the halting of seeking recreational services. The milder winter has greatly affected farming and habitats, where the animals would find it difficult to adjust themselves to the new temperature conditions. (Richard Connor, “Europe has second mildest winter on record — climate monitor,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2023)

ENERGY
Germany to import Hydrogen from France 
On 09 March, Germany plans to support France in the recognition of hydrogen energy made from nuclear power as they plan to import. Advisor to the German Chancellor said: “We will not erect barriers or create rules that prohibit or discriminate against hydrogen made from nuclear power.” Hydrogen power creates energy without emitting CO2, a system used in France's energy-generating nuclear power plant. France has long argued that hydrogen produced by nuclear power is ‘green’ as part of the European rules and would spearhead the nuclear alliance. (Théo Bourgery-Gonse, “Germany ‘not opposed’ to nuclear-made hydrogen, says will import from France,” Euractiv, 09 March 2023)

REGIONAL
UK and France look to a renew friendship 
On 10 March, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met to mend ties. This is the first joint summit in five years, the relations saw a slowdown after failed submarine contract (Aukus deal) and a row over fishing rights. The change in UK leadership and the Ukraine invasion has once again ignited the relationship between the two countries. They plan to form a strategic partnership in energy focusing on nuclear energy. This is a vital move as they try to define a common ambition and a stance of renewed friendship. (Davide Basso, “France-UK to attempt mending ties with the joint summit,” Euractiv, 09 March 2023)

NATO hosted Turkey, Finland and Sweden to address security concerns
On 09 March, Permanent Joint Mechanism members Turkey, Finland and Sweden were hosted by NATO. The NATO Secretary-General said: “Finland and Sweden have taken unprecedented steps to address legitimate Turkish security concerns.” The representatives from each country discussed the steps to strengthen trilateral relations where they could exchange arms and have increased counter-terrorism measures. The discussion agreed on adding Finland and Sweden to NATO as beneficial to the larger interest of the alliance. (“NATO Secretary General hosts meeting of senior officials from Türkiye, Finland and Sweden,” NATO, 09 March 2023)

Norway to allow UK to set camp Viking
On 10 March, Sputnik reported on UK's plans to establish a military base in the arctic called "Camp Viking." This establishment violates Norwegian law on the permanent presence of “foreign forces” during peacetime against the law. The UK defines this as a vital move for the modern era where they would be situated 120 kilometres south of the city of Tromso. During the winter 1000 UK commandos were deployed in the Camp Viking station as part of the Joint Expeditionary Force and Nato drills. The critics have found this deal as a violation of long-standing Norwegian policy and this was refuted by the authorities setting that the presence is only temporary. (Igor Kuznetsov, “UK to Establish Arctic Military Base in Norway,” Sputnik, 10 March 2023)

European Parliament agreed on energy efficiency directives 
On 10 March, European Parliament agrees to reduce final energy consumption by 11.7 per cent by 2030. This would mean an aggregate of 763 million worth of oil should be targeted for consumption. The consumption limit would be binding and final for all member states. This does not include primary energy used for the production and supply of energy. They agreed that gradual annual saving of the energy target would ensure 1.49 per cent of energy consumption on average. They highlighted the obligation of the public sector to reach the yearly target by reducing consumption by 1.9 per cent. (“Council and Parliament strike deal on energy efficiency directive,” European Council, 10 March 2023)


09 March 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #456

Ukraine war: Day 378

Photo : gov.si


War in Ukraine: Day 378
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 08 March, Ukraine’s state energy entity’s Head, reported on growing difficulty for Ukraine in meeting the power shortage while new Russian attacks take place. The Head remarked that the worst winter was over but the recurring attacks on the energy grids of Ukraine has resulted in power outages, scare heating and water.

On 08 March, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres arrived to Ukraine to meet Zelenskyy. The discussion centered on the extension of the grain deal. Guterres stressed on the independence and continuity of the deal. According to him, the deal which is about to expire had helped in reducing the global food cost and has helped in critical segment of people from paying high prices. He added: “We will continue to support solutions for humanitarian problems wherever possible on every front.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 March, RT reported on position of Russia’s military in Bakhmut. The Wagner Group Head Evgeny Prigozhin claimed of capturing the eastern part of the city. On the same, a video from the zone along with T-34 tank was released. The report also indicated the confirmation of ISW think tank on the capture.

On 08 March, RT reported on Zelenskyy’s comments on Ukraine’s goal in Bakhmut. In the report, the capturing of Bakhmut by Russia would mean link to reach Kramatorsk and Slavyansk giving Russia advantage to move further towards Donetsk.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 08 March, in the EU Defence Ministers meet, they announced the investment of EUR two billion toward purchase of artillery shells and rounds for Ukraine. Estonia’s Defence Minister proposed its plan to the EU, stating the assured investment might be insufficient and stressed on the EU to spend EUR four billion in purchasing one million 155mm shells for Ukraine.

On 08 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Bakhmut might fall, but it would not decide the larger gamut of war. He stressed on the US and Europe to speed up the military production as the consumption rate is much higher.

On 08 March, Poland’s President Andrej Duda announced the intension to support Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine and to also consider US F-16 in the future. He said: “We are ready to deliver these aircraft and I am sure Ukraine would be ready to use them immediately.”

On 08 March, the White House released a statement on the call held between the US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron. The discussion was on efforts to continue the support for Ukraine in the second year along with addressing the challenges posed by China in the world order.

On 08 March, Sweden’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs announced EUR 11 million aid to support Ukraine’s women and girls. The provided aid aimed to help humanitarian aid and create opportunities for both short and long term. It will also support the health care infrastructure. According to Minister for International Development Cooperation: “These earmarked funds can be used for…. clinics, equipment to prevent maternal and infant mortality, and protection and support for victims of conflict-related sexual violence.”

On 08 March, the German Federal Ministry of Defense during the EU Defence Ministers meeting announced its target to train 9000 soldiers of Ukraine armed forces by 2023. The meeting mainly focuses on discussion efforts to improve military aid to Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 08 March, the IMF initiated discussion with Ukraine official to create a “cooperation” programme. In a statement: “An IMF mission, led by Gavin Gray, starts policy discussions today with the Ukrainian authorities on a potential Fund-supported program.” The IMF team is expected to work on the agenda of the programme from 08 to 15 March from Poland.

On 08 March, South Korea along with Poland agreed to supply howitzers to Ukraine that are manufactured with “components” from South Korea. The weapon systems known as “Krab” has been claimed by the South Korea’s Defence Ministry as holder of components from many countries and not narrowing to South Korea alone.

References
Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call with President Emmanuel Macron of France,” whitehouse.gov, 08 March 2023
IMF mission kicks off discussions with Ukraine on new program,” Ukrinform, 08 March 2023
Sweden provides almost EUR 11 million in support to women and girls in Ukraine and Moldova,” government.se, 08 March 2023
Wagner chief reports progress in key Donbass city,” RT, 08 March 2023
Zelensky explains why he’s so determined to hold key Donbass city,” RT, 08 March 2023
In Ukraine, Guterres pledges to keep seeking ‘solutions and a just peace’,” news.un.org, 08 March 2023
9,000 Ukrainian soldiers to undergo training in Germany this year,” Ukrinform, 08 March 2023
Ukraine updates: EU agrees to start joint arms procurement,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2023
NATO Secretary General at EU Defence Ministerial: we must boost ammunition stockpiles, ramp up production,” nato.int, 08 March 2023


IN BRIEF 
By Femy Francis

ESTONIA
Reform party to form coalition with Eesti 200 and Social Democratic Party
On 07 March, Kaja Kallas Reform party, the winner of Estonia elections announced their coalition invitation to Eesti 200 and Social Democratic Party. The Reform Party was able to lock 37 seats where the other two would make them into a 60 seat coalition. Kallas expressed her reason to invite the parties as mutuality of interests said: “Security, the green transition and people's welfare ended up the deciding factors,” The party also announced its aims to eliminate “Tax Hump” where most of nominal wages goes up. (“Kaja Kallas: Reform inviting Eesti 200, Social Democrats to coalition talks,” ERR News, 07 March 2023)

GEORGIA
Mass protests over Foreign Agent bill 
On 08 March, Georgia saw massive protests against the Foreign Agent” bill where 15,000 protestors gathered. The protest turned violent with clashes between police and people as they threw stones and petrol bombs trying to break barriers. This led police to detain 66 individuals for “petty hooliganism” and disobeying the police stated the Interior Ministry. This bill was proposed to promote “Transparency of Foreign Influence," where any organization whose international funding exceeds 20 per cent would be quoted as “foreign agents.” The bill has gained criticism as the law will reduces possibility of Georgia joining the EU and due to the similarities with Russia's law. (“Georgia: Dozens arrested during 'foreign agent' law protest,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2023)

GREECE
Massive protest against the train crash 
On 08 March, Greece saw thousands around 50,000 protestors striking against the deadliest Train crash which killed 57 individuals. The strike has brought the nation to a halt where the labor unions have stopped the ferries and disrupted public transportation. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis blamed the crash on human error, while the rail workers have been striking demanding for better working conditions. There plans to conduct a bigger strike until the protestors will get the government to impose safer railways. (“Train crash protests: Strikes bring much of Greece to a halt,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2023)

LATVIA
Soaring inflationary price hike for 20.4 per cent
On 08 March, Centre Statistical Bureau (CSB) reported that Latvia saw a 20.4 per cent rise in inflation prices. Compared to Europe where the inflation would reach 8.5 per cent, Latvia's inflation is more than double. In Latvia prices for food went up by 25.3 per cent, heat energy by 66.4 per cent, electricity 90.2 percent and Natural gasses 79.5 per cent. Difference between one month of January and February prices has been increased by 0.6 per cent. The government predicts that possibility of lowering of inflationary prices would be based on the fluctuation of fuel prices. (“Inflation level remains over 20% in Latvia,” Latvian Public Broadcasting, 08 March 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Impose restriction on semiconductor technology sales to China 
On 08 March, Netherlands decided to to impose restrictions on semiconductor technology exports to China stating to protect its national security. They now have joined the US where in October restricted exports of chip making tools to China and to make it more effective it required other key exporters Japan and Netherlands to agree to halting the shipment as well. The provision lays emphasis on “DUV” technology that would be affected the most which is ASML’s second largest product sold to China. ASML, a Dutch company exports to China for about EUR 2.2 billion in the year of 2023 as the sales grow to only 25 per cent. (“Netherlands to restrict chip exports after US pressure over China threat,Financial Times, 08 March 2023)

REGIONAL 
EU plans for 40 per cent green tech production to be developed within 
On 07 March, Guardian reported that EU plans under Net Zero Industry Act want to focus 40 per cent of green tech production to be made within Europe, a counter measure against US and China. This comes in light against the US inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that would subsidize green technology production by giving a budget of USD 369 billion, with China's growing influence as importers give them a monopoly of consuming power. The IRA bill has been heavily criticized by EU leaders and policy makers; the new bill would be further discussed during the Brussels Summit. The net zero bill proposes that large plant producers would be getting permit within a year to hasten the production process and would ask EU companies to reduce dependence on imports. (Jennifer Rankin, “EU targets 40% of clean tech to be made within the bloc by 2030,” The Guardian, 07 March 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
UK, US and Australia joint venture for Aukus pact  
On 08 March, Financial Times reported that the UK will play a more prominent role in Australia's nuclear submarine development Aukus deal, a joint venture between UK, US and Australia. The three nations leaders plan to meet on 13 March and discuss the future planning. The Aukus pact came as a venture to counter Chinese developments and military aggression. The meeting is expected to unveil the design proposed for the submarine which would be a hybrid design matching the pragmatic needs for Australia. Rishi Sunak mentioned to his colleagues that the negotiations were a “Success for Britain”. (“Britain to play bigger role in Aukus submarine deal than envisagedFinancial Times, 08 March 2023)

Volkswagen plans to halt battery plan in Europe 
On 08 March, Volkswagen announced that they are planning to halt battery plant projects from eastern Europe. This comes after the US Inflation Reduction Act aiding with a USD 369 billion package where now companies like Volkswagen have started to prioritize facilities in North America reckoning to get USD 10 billion in financing. The US incentives subsidies on green technology, luring companies to invest in their deals. The new bill faced much criticism from the EU due to which they came up with their own green deal to counter the US offer. The Volkswagen company have started looking at the US over Germany for their factory location. (“VW puts European battery plant on hold as it seeks €10bn from US,” Financial Times, 08 March 2023)

NATO discussed the role of technology and gender parity on women's day
On 08 March, as part of the Women's Day initiative NATO held a conference with panels across the alliance. They deeply discourse on the role of women and gender parity with its effect on the future. The meeting was titled “Innovators and Game Changers: Women in Tech Shaping the Future,” discussing gender equality and the role of technology to bridge the gap. Irene Fellin Nato’s special Representative for Women, talked about how the digital gap can be further dissected to the level of gender parity stating, “we must all work together to bridge the major gender gap in technology. Across the NATO Enterprise, with partners, industry and academia… By including women in science and tech, you take on more brain power, more ideas, more creativity. That is what we need, what NATO needs, what all of us need.” They discussed the role of women in the Tech industry and that while there has been a rise in the role of women in the industry it is far from being equal. With time and progressing technology would play a vital role in security and military domain therefore a push has to be engaged in to look into developments through the lens of gender. (“NATO marks International Women’s Day with conference on gender equality in technology,” nato.int, 08 March 2023)

NATO to provide Jordanian women’s military with transportation facilities 
On 05 March, Nato’s Defence Capacity Building (DCB) provided women’s Jordanian armed forces with buses. The donation was made by Australia and Netherlands to the Military Women’s Training Centre (MWTC) who were facing the issue of transportation to train their women in combat. To address these two 23-seater buses were delivered that would cover the distance of eight kilometres, this would facilitate training and education of the women. (“NATO delivers buses to the Military Women’s Training Centre of Jordan,” nato.int, 08 March 2023)


08 March 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #455

Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways | Ukraine war: Day 377

Photo : Source: Stefano Rellandini, Pool / AP


EM Comment
By Trisha Roy

Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways

What happened?
On 04 March, French President Emmanuel Macron completed a four-day tour of Central Africa starting from 01 March 2023 wherein he visited Gabon, Congo, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The tour comes against the backdrop of France’s failing reputation in the continent and a renewed scramble for Africa. The visit has been termed an attempt to ‘reset’ or ‘redefine’ the erstwhile colonial power’s engagement with the region. However, this reset will require a non-armed approach, with a touch of humility.

During France’s presence in the region, security conditions deteriorated, plummeting its popularity. Shifting away from its former colonies, Macron included visits to other non-French colonies such as Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Moving away from regions brewing with anti-French sentiments is strategically important for France if it wants to remain a key player in the region.

The visit launched a strategy of reduced military presence in the African countries. This comes after the setback France faced in Mali and Burkina Faso, where it launched ambitious military interventions to tackle terrorism. 

Macron has tried to shift the focus away from politics by announcing French humanitarian aid to eastern DRC, including support for agriculture and forests. Recognising the increasing influence of other powers in the geo-strategically important continent, Macron pointed that "Africa is a theatre of competition. It has to be done in a fair framework ... We have our role to play, neither more nor less."
 
The visit follows several important developments bearing a significant impact on France - a renewed push from the United States of America to strengthen its economic ties after a lull of over a decade, build up of Russian presence in Sahel, particularly of its private military contractor Wagner Group and China’s diversified interest in Gabon and Angola. These have been coupled with France’s exit from Mali and very recently Burkina Faso, breaking up of age-old military ties of these countries and a deepening security crisis in West Africa’s Sahel region. 

What are the major takeaways?
The following three takeaways can be identified.

1. Need to win hearts and not wars
The African theatre is increasingly becoming more complicated and competitive. What used to be a stronghold of France decades ago has gradually eroded. The anti-French sentiments in these African nations have brought a lens of scepticism through which the erstwhile colonies look at France. Given these underlying sentiments, an attempt to renew France’s strategy will be difficult. 

After a failed decade-long fight in the Sahel, France’s capabilities and its intentions have begun to be questioned by the region. Jean Gaspard Ntoutoume Ayi, vice-president of Gabonese opposition party Union Nationale said there was no political or strategic coherence to this four-day trip. Hence, to win this war of influence, France will have to be a winner of the hearts of the new target states, alongside improving relations with countries it has already been engaged with for decades.
 
2. Jostling for influence 
The tour comes at a juncture when global politics witness another war of influence, with different actors this time. Macron’s visit follows several high-profile visits to the continent as each tries to expand its sphere of influence. China is known to have decades-long presence and deep-rooted economic ties, albeit often criticized for its debt-creating development projects across Africa. Russia is another entrant, which has been ousted with sanctions from Western countries for its year-long war in Ukraine. Russia has been eyeing Sudan, which was kept out of the Second US-Africa Leaders Summit in December 2022, for its strategic location next to the Red Sea and has a swaying influence over Sahel, a region where France had strategic interests up till now. The Wagner Group, Russia’s private military contractor, is said to have entered regions where France has had influence. But anti-French sentiment has pushed France to withdraw from Sahel with Macron stating "France's role is not to fix all the problems in Africa.” The tight rope on which France is walking on now needs to be tread with a balancing act.

3. Resetting a long due Africa policy 
Macron pointed to a reduction in French military presence in the continent, but not a complete withdrawal. Following setbacks in Mali and Burkina Faso, Macron is now looking for co-running France’s military bases with the host nations. Macron claimed Francafrique, a reference used to explain France’s relations with its erstwhile colonies, is a thing of the past. The time is ripe for France to reflect and reassess their policies in Africa. More unarmed cooperation with African nations will enable it to restore some trust and rebuild deeper relations if it wishes to maintain influence in the region. 

The visit, thus, points to a shift in France’s approach to the continent. The influence and status it once enjoyed has transformed and eroded to some extent over the years. Macron’s strategy will have to make room for a sustained presence of France in this increasingly competitive arena. The President’s approach of reduced military footprint in the continent is a step in the right direction to tackle the anti-French sentiment and suspicion on its intentions. The focus now should be on building a stronger democracy and ensuring grassroots development. 

The article was previously published in NIAS Africa Weekly

About the Author
Trisha Roy is a PhD scholar at the CHRIST (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore. 


War in Ukraine: Day 377
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 07 March, Ukrinform reported on Severodonetsk District Military Administration, Head reported on how Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Rubizhne has been used by Russian military as base. He said: “There are places where troops are stationed, ammunition depots. There are training centers on the outskirts of Severodonetsk. There are bases of Russian troops almost everywhere in the district.”

On 07 March, Ukraine State Border Guard Service with help from aerial surveillance forces reported on elimination of seven Wagner groups in Bakhmut. According to the report in the attempt by Wagner group in Bakhmut were blocked by Ukrainians which pushed them to step back. The surveillance took place using drone, and mortar units. On the same Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “The command unanimously supported this position. There were no other positions. I told the commander-in-chief to find the appropriate forces to help our guys in Bakhmut.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 March, RT reported on Ukraine’s demand for “cluster munition,” to target Russia’s military. According to the report, the weapons are barred in 100 countries due to its “high risk” nature for people. It especially highlighted Ukraine’s ask for MK-20 Cluster bombs that can be deployed through drones.

On 07 March, RT reported on Russia’s Defence Minister comments on benefit of capturing Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). According to the Defence Minister: “Taking [Artyomovsk] under control will allow further offensive actions deep into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” Artyomovsk is observed as key base for Ukraine to operate its supplies as it provides a 70 kilometres line and functions as protection against fighting in Donbass. The report also confirmed the circling of the are from north, east and south, the Defence Minister accused the West for boosting the military supplies and equipment to Ukraine. On the same the Wagner group Head, Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to warn about the shortages in “ammunition, and reinforcements.”

The Defence Ministry also confirmed on the prisoner exchange where 90 were sent back into Russia and 130 were sent into Ukraine, including 126 being servicemen and service women.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement on increasing the need to boost military aid to Ukraine in the meeting with Defence Ministers in Sweden. He highlighted the situation to be turning into “war of attrition” and so increasing problems in logistics, thereby ensuring increased ammunition production has become important. 

On 07 March, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the extension of training period to October. Apart from this Canada also committed to provide USD one billion as military aid to Ukraine which includes Leopard tanks, armoured vehicles, surface to air missiles and munitions.

On 07 March, The New York Times reported on the US’s report on Nord-Stream pipelines. According to the report, the pro-Ukrainian groups have been suspected behind the damage in the Nord Stream pipelines. Germany’s Die Zeit a weekly says that Poland based company had influenced the Saboteur team, but the investigations does not give evidence on those responsible for the destruction of pipeline.

On 07 March, Poland’s Defence Minister announced to supply 10 more Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, with four already delivered 14 will be the total pledged number of tanks.

References
"Bakhmut will fall’ – Ukrainian tank soldier to AFP,RT, 07 March 2023
"Ukrainian military eliminate at least seven Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut," Ukrinform, 07 March 2023
"Russian defense minister outlines importance of key Donbass city," RT, 07 March 2023
"Russians set up military bases almost everywhere in district - Severodonetsk administration head," Ukrinform, 07 March 2023
"Secretary General in Stockholm: time to welcome Finland and Sweden as NATO Allies," NATO, 07 March 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

FRANCE
Protestors aim to halt government's operations against the pension reform bill
On 07 March, France came to a “standstill” as the country witnessed a mass gathering with 1.3 - 3.5 million people gathering against Emmanuel Macron's government “pension reform bill.” To further push Macron the unions have called for two more strikes scheduled for 11 March including the departments of transportation, education, refineries and energy. The protests also witnessed several power cuts demonstrations which have been criticized for negating the rights of protesting and several chemical plants shut down halting various sectors of the country. Nearly 47 per cent of EDF employees organized against the bill, a vital electricity provider for France. The demonstrations also took place in Paris with 700,00 protestors taking the road. It's estimated that nearly 24.4 per cent of civil servant employees have participated in the strike and the Senate is still debating the bill with many rejecting the amendments proposed by Macron to incentivise opting for the bill stating CDI provisions of a permanent employee where an employee can get the economic benefit. (“Pensions: what to remember from the mobilization day of March 7,” Les Echos, 07 March 2023)

TURKEY
Earthquake damages to cross USD 100 billion says UNDP
On 07 March, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) estimated that the cost of Turkey's earthquake damage might exceed USD 100 billion. This estimation is excluding the cost that needs to be incurred for the recovery and rebuilding of Turkey. They also expressed their dissatisfaction over the low-level response for funding pleas, stating that thousands of homes have been destroyed and the needs are rising while the resources are depleting. (“UN says Turkey's earthquake damage exceeds $100 billion,” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2023)

The UK
Government discloses the plan to halt access for asylum for migrants reaching through small boats
On 07 March, the UK announced its plan to halt the access for asylum seekers who reach in small boats crossing the English Channel. The number of migrants reaching England increased to 45,000 in 2022, threatening the International Boundary Law. According to the proposed law, migrants arriving from small boats won't be granted asylum and would be detained where they would be kept under trial for 28 days and later deported. The only exception would be made for women and children or people who are medically unfit and in need of assistance. The opposition has called this move taking a risk at creating 'Chaos', while the refugee council called this move a shattering of the UN Refugee Convention where the refugees would be locked up like criminals. The UK government owes this move as a way to aid more legal channels of migration and stop illegal trafficking and dangerous crossing. (“UK reveals plan to stop asylum-seekers in small boats,” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2023)

REGIONAL
EU plans to propose Critical Raw Material Act
On 07 March, Euractiv reported about the Critical Raw Material Act draft set to be introduced on 14 March, which aims at making Europe a more self-sufficient nation. The proposal wants to minimise supply risk by strengthening the EU’s capacity of production in all stages, especially of raw material, extraction and recycling. The draft states, “10% of the Union’s consumption of strategic raw materials” should be mined in the EU. In addition, 15% of the Union’s annual consumption of each critical raw material should come from recycling and 40% of the bloc’s annual consumption of each strategic raw material.” Europe is heavily dependent on the imports of raw materials, whereas it is 100 per cent dependent on foreign suppliers, especially for raw materials. This move comes after the EU seeks to minimize dependency on China, which holds a monopoly where they import 93 per cent of magnesium and 86 per cent of rare metals. The draft also proposes to include special treatment of projects which are considered “Strategic” to the region, where the permitted time for mining projects will be drastically reduced from 10 years to 2 years and be aided by additional financial support to boost the industry's development. (Oliver Noyan, “LEAK: EU Commission wants 10% of critical raw materials mined in EuropeEuractiv, 07 March 2023)

EU proposal for Net-Zero Industry Act
On 08 March, Euractiv reported that the European Commission's Net- Zero Industry act (NZIA) draft aims to decrease dependency on foreign clean tech products, laying in parallel to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The proposal aims to push European production of renewable technologies, this comes in light of their criticism of US IRA subsidies as discriminatory. The draft very clearly mentions that the public authorities have to be conscious of whether the green technology they are buying is produced in the EU or not. Some experts have called this move dangerous because they would be solely focusing on domestic requirements with EU bias and hence violating WTO provisions. (János Allenbach-Ammann, “The ‘Buy European’ clauses in the Net-Zero Industry Act” Euractiv, 08 March 2023)

Survey warns about the rising number of child poverty in the EU
On 07 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the Save the Children estimate that almost 20 million in EU countries are facing poverty. When aggregated puts every one in four children at risk of being in poverty. The report states that this was further pushed by the rising cost of living and the COVID-19 pandemic added an edge to the issue.  According to at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) Spain and Romania rated the worst with 33 per cent and 41.5 per cent of children risked at the line of poverty. While Finland at 13.2 per cent and Denmark at 14 per cent did the best among the European member states. The rise in cost and the soaring food prices affect the families of lower to middle-income class groups the most, where there is a large aggregate of migrant families, refugees and asylum seekers facing the worst of it. (“1 in 4 children at risk of poverty in Europe, report says,” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2023)


07 March 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #454

Ukraine war: Day 376

Georgia's scuffle over new bill; Turkey's new opposition candidate; Saudi Arabia aid to Turkey

Photo : Concord Press Service via Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 376
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 06 March, Ukraine’s Ground Force Commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the fight in the Bakhmut had reached its peak point as Russia adds more forces from the Wagner Group. He said: “The enemy threw into the battle Wagner's additional forces. Our soldiers are courageously defending their positions in the north of Bakhmut, trying to prevent encirclement.” On the same, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a statement on the meeting with army general. He calling for “operation in Bakhmut” in the meeting, where they vouched for reinforcement and not withdrawal.

On 06 March, Ukraine’s spokesperson reported on demographic challenges faced by the government in bringing back the people who fled during the war. The spokesperson urged the respective community chiefs to take efforts to ensure the return. Only through such efforts Ukraine economy can grow back and for production, capacity would be needed to deploy.

On 05 March, Ukraine’s National Guard for Bakhmut area, Volodymyr Nazarenko reported on Ukraine forces hold over Bakhmut-Kostiantynivka highway. This highway is seen as the most crucial for Ukraine supplies to enter and exit and according to Nazarenko there have been no “tactical changes.” He denied withdrawal and assured Ukraine’s defence hold. 


The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 March, TASS reported on losses suffered by Ukraine in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). According to the report it confirmed the destruction of bridges by Ukraine and deployment of small troops in the zone. Till now neither Russia nor Ukraine have disclosed the exact number of losses.

On 06 March, DPR spokesperson Denis Pushlin reported on the number of Ukrainian soldiers in Artyomovsk. He stated that close to 10,000 were present, while many have been attempted by Russia to shell down, the Wagner group claims “strong resistance” from Ukraine forces.

On 06 March, Wagner mercenary group head, Yegveny Prigozhin reported on the permission denial to get access of Russia’s military headquarters in Ukraine. The request to access came after the Wagner group demanded for ammunition supply earlier. He said: “The situation will not be sweet for all military formations protecting Russian interests.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 March, on the situation in Bakhmut, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that Russia winning control over the city would not mean Ukraine’s losing in the larger conflict. He said: “I think it is more of a symbolic value than it is strategic and operational value.” On the same ISW reported on strained supplies and narrowing routes for Ukraine to replenish its weapons into Bakhmut.

On 06 March, Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas after the meeting with Ukraine’s Defence Minister, announced the preparation of new aid package for Ukraine. He said since the war, Lithuania has not only strengthening its military capabilities but also supporting Ukraine. Till now Lithuania has sent military aid worth EUR 409 million.

References
Виступ Андрія Єрмака на засіданні Конгресу місцевих та регіональних влад,” Youtube/UkrinformTV, 06 March 2023
Maria Kostenko and Sugam Pokharel, “
Ukrainian forces still control a key highway in Bakhmut, frontline leader says,” CNN, 05 March 2023
The occupier is killing for the very fact that we are Ukrainians, for the mere word about Ukraine - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 06 March 2023
Next package of assistance to Ukraine is put together, says A.Anušauskas,” kam.lt, 06 March 2023
Ukraine sustains big losses in Artyomovsk — newspaper,” RT, 06 March 2023
About 10,000 Ukrainian troops remain in Artyomovsk, says DPR advisor,” RT, 06 March 2023
Ukraine: 'Painful and difficult' battle of Bakhmut grinds on,” Deutsche Welle, 06 March 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

FRANCE

Les Echos reports on the right to strike for protests
On 06 March, Les Echos reports on the right to strike in the public service amid calls for the new announcement for protests and put France on standstill over the pension reforms bill. There have been renewed calls for a strike, where service sectors plan on massive mobilization.  While unionized branches are used to protest and mobilise, certain sectors of services especially public sector protests are heavily guarded by rules and are reprimanded by cutting wages or salaries. Almost all French employees in theory can strike while respecting three principles that is total stoppage of work, collective stoppage of striking employees and checking professional and political demands. The civil services include nurses, firefighters, police, army and ministry employees. Where some of them like police, and judicial magistrates don’t have the right to strike, others can with a prior five-day notice. The cutting from wages is calculated by the “thirtieth rule” where one hour, half day or whole day leave will lead to the cutting of thirty per cent of their salaries cut. These certain professionals have the obligation to provide minimum services and maintain a sufficient number of employees, if not followed the state can requisition workers to ensure that there is continuity in services. (Josephine Boone, “Pensions: five questions on the right to strike in the public service,” Les Echos, 06 March 2023)

Pension reform bill adds new provision for CDI
On 05 March, French Senate came up with a new provision for the pension reform bill where they would create a permanent employment contract (CDI) to promote senior employees, as they would be exempted from family contributions in order to compensate for the cost of a senior employee. As they have more experience and should be remunerated with higher pay supporting that under this provision, the employee can terminate the contract if they don’t wish to continue or, they can seek the benefit of completion of full employment. This provision saw criticism as the cost incurred can be heavy for the family branch causing a deficit of EUR 800 million. (Solenn Poullennec,“Pensions: senators create a contract to promote the employment of seniors” Les Echos, 05 March 2023)
 
GEORGIA

Georgian parliament witness scuffle over the foreign agent bill
On 06 March, the Georgian parliament saw fight among the members over the proposed “foreign agents” law. The new proposal has been linked to Russian law in 2012 where Kremlin used the same term to stifle opposition. The law states that any organization that receives more than 20 per cent of its funding from abroad would be reinstated as a “foreign agent.” The supporters of the bill state that the public should know what organisations are funded by which sources by tagging them specifically. The critiques said that it curtails the freedom of civil society groups who engage in society from a more transnational perspective, this law would take away the opportunity for the opposition of critiques of the government to act freely. (Richard Connor, “Georgia: Lawmakers brawl over proposed 'foreign agents' law,” Deutsche Welle, 06 March 2023)

TURKEY

Kemal Kilicdaroglu nominated as candidate by opposition coalition
On 06 March, Turkey's opposition party announced Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the candidate that would be competing against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the May elections. There has been a rift amongst the opposition where the parties do not agree with the nomination because they believe the chances of the selected candidate winning are slim. The opposition bloc has promised to end the presidential system and bring back the parliamentary system last disarmed by President Erdogan. He has been in power for the last 20 years and gained more power by abolishing the position of Prime Minister. (“Turkey: Opposition nominates a candidate to challenge Erdogan,” Deutsche Welle, 06 March 2023)

REGIONAL

Toblerone Matterhorn mountain peak packaging is be replaced with Tobler's signature in Slovakia
On 06 March, BBC reported on Toblerone plan to remove its signature Matterhorn mountain peak as the chocolate production moved from Switzerland to Slovakia. The pyramid-shaped bar that imitates the alpine peak would be altered with a more generic summit. There has been a provision since 2017 where strict rules have been applied as to what should be considered “Swisness.” The rules state that the symbol cannot be used to promote milk-based products that are not exclusively curated in Switzerland with at least 80 per cent of the raw material from the region. The US firm Mondelez confirmed that as the production moves to Slovakia owing to the rise of demand, there would be a new face of the packaging different from the previous one. (Beth Timmins, “Toblerone: Swiss rules mean chocolate bar to drop Matterhorn from packaging,” BBC, 06 March 2023)

Turkey and France push for a “New NATO”
On 05 March, TFI reported that Hungary and France are looking towards the creation of a new NATO excluding the US. Hungary which is yet to ratify Finland and Sweden's application to join the transatlantic defence alliance, President Viktor Orban pushed for the creation of a separate European NATO. Where he argued that Europe needs a military bloc that is free from influence of the US. He contended that the EU often serves American concerns and interests rather than their own and that they should look for peace negotiations for the Russia-Ukraine war. French President Emmanuel Macron also suggested a stronger European-only bloc, a real European army so that they can reduce their dependence on the US. (Ansh Pandey, “A New NATO? Sounds like a good plan to Hungary and France may approve it” TFI Global News, 05 March 2023)

ENERGY

Slovakia plans to invest in wind parks
On 06 March, Slovakia plans to launch two wind park projects, as stated by the state-owned energy supplier SSP. Amid the rampant energy crisis, the country is considering investing in wind parks but this has met with resistance. This comes in light to halt the dependence on Russian energy and building the first one near Piestany city with a capacity of 50 megawatts costing them EUR 63 million. This move has been heavily criticised by activists and environmentalists stating that this would have major implications for the natural landscape. (Michal Hudec, “Slovakia now turning towards wind,” Euractiv, 06 March 2023)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

WhatsApp to agree with EU consumer protection rules
On 06 March, WhatsApp the meta-owned messaging service agreed to the committee suggested by the EU consumer probe. This was based on complaints registered by Consumer Protection Cooperation, which were concerned about the WhatsApp privacy policy ad terms and conditions launched in 2021 under which they were putting pressure on users to accept the changes without understanding the proper implications. Agreeing to the EU provisions WhatsApp has agreed to be more transparent when modifying the terms of service, and give option to users to more changes if they disagree with the policy and terms and conditions, and with that also mentions the implication of rejecting such services. (Luca Bertuzzi, “WhatsApp commits to comply with EU consumer rules over policy updates,” Euractiv,06 March 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Saudi Arabia to send aid to Turkey
On 06 March, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with Turkey to deposit EUR 4.7 billion. This comes in light of the disasters Turkey has been facing with high inflation and the aftermath effects of the massive earthquake. Saudi delegates said, “a testament to the close cooperation and historical ties that exist between the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Turkey and its brotherly people”. This comes as a move to strengthen bilateral ties between the two nations which were severed after the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (“Saudi Arabia deposits $5 billion in Turkey's central bank,” Deutsche Welle, 06 March 2023)


06 March 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #453

Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Ukraine war: Day 374 & 375

Spain to announce gender parity law; UN adopts high seas treaty; EU packaging law under criticism

Photo : BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP


EM Comment
By Indrani Talukdar

In Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine, apart from the two conflicting parties, other neighboring states, whether a member of NATO or not, are also involved. Belarus is a case of a non-NATO member supporting Russia in the ongoing conflict. Until 2021, Belarus had not recognized Crimea as a part of Russia, but in November 2021, it recognized Crimea as ‘de facto Russian’.
 
Belarus-Russia: A growing bonhomie
The relations between the Presidents of Belarus and Russia has been strengthening especially after the 2020 presidential election in Minsk. Back in 2020, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko showed certain openness towards the West, while maintaining proximity to Russia. But, the rigged elections of 2020 and the violent suppression of demonstrations was the turning point.
 
The closeness between Belarus and Russia has culminated in the form of active military exercises. One of the major exercise called "Union Shield 2023" was held in September 2022 and another one in January 2023. Russia using Belarus as the launching pad to attack Ukraine and the formation of a regional group of forces mostly consisting of Belarusian military personnel cements this alliance. Minsk justifies the regional group as a culmination of a treaty signed between two states in 1999.
 
Ukraine’s threat perception
Ukraine perceives this grouping as a reservoir of Russian troops to help Moscow against Kiev, as it opens another way to invade Ukraine. The threat is not only directed towards Ukraine, but also to the West. With the culmination of this 1999 treaty Poland’s border becomes exposed to Russian defense system that has the possibility of permanently getting stationed in the Belarusian-Russian border. In December 2022, President Lukashenko announced the start of the combat duty of Iskander-M (the short-range ballistic missile system capable of carrying nuclear weapons) and of the S-400 air defense missile system received from Russia. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia would provide training for Belarusian pilots of jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons (Belarus claims that its jets have been modified to be able to carry out this task, although Belarus does not have nuclear weapons). With the nuclear weapons getting mentioned time and again by the Russians the level of threat rhetoric for Ukraine and for the Central European countries security has increased.
 
Meanwhile, apart from using of Belarusian territory and Belarusian-Russian defense activities, Belarusian supply of military equipment to Russia such as tanks and ammunition, military training to the mobilized Russians, and health care, logistics and other services (e.g. accommodation, fuel-processing and military equipment repairs etc.) which are a part of the 1999 treaty, could also be seen as a tactic from Russia’s side to divert Kiev’s resources from the front line where it is most needed. Apart from diversion of Kiev’s resources, the direction of the offensive might also be shifted to the west of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. If that happens then it would mean a cut off from the main logistical arteries of arms and military equipment supplies to Ukraine from its partner countries. The development in this western side has resulted in the increase in tension between Belarus and Ukraine. President Lukashenko last month said that Belarus would join the offensives against Ukraine if Ukraine’s army attacks the country first. Minsk has claimed that there has been a significant grouping of Ukrainian troops near Belarus’s border and warned that this posed a threat to its security. Kiev on the other hand is claiming about invasion from Belarus side. In this whole conundrum, Russia seems to have gained an upper hand strategically.
 
Belarus getting integrated to Russia, which is a part of the ‘Great Russia’ ambition of the Kremlin, appears to be a reality. The close relationship between the two can be traced back to the Tsarist Empire’s time. Unlike Ukraine, they both are a part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as well as of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In 2022, Belarus was part of CSTO operation in Kazakhstan.
 
What does it mean for Belarus?
Nevertheless, for Belarus the internal conditions and the sanctions imposed by the West since 2020 have complicated the situation for President Lukashenko. The country seems to be divided between the Kremlin and the West. President Lukashenko and some of the defense officials are in the Kremlin camp whereas the Belarusian opposition and the majority of the citizens favors the West. For President Lukashenko to get openly involved in the war would mean mobilization of the Belarusians themselves (the number of defense personnel is not high) which might not go down well. There is tension between the president and the citizens because of his repressive ways of ruling. Hence, ordering his army to join Russia’s in Ukraine could renew the Belarusian pro-democracy protests like in the lines of the Orange Revolution and Maidan Square. If his security forces are involved in fighting in Ukraine then they might not be able to maintain order inside Belarus.
 
The Ukraine war has put President Lukashenko in a three-pronged dilemma-firstly, the domestic conditions that could get out of control, getting completely integrated to Russia (which Belarus might not want to) and moving further away from the West. If Belarus becomes integrated in Russia then the country’s future under President Lukashenko would be of the similar fate that of Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov. Belarus’s fate depends on President Lukashenko decisions.
 
At present, President Lukashenko’s interest lies in protecting his power within his own country and blaming the West and its propaganda for the domestic unrest. Russia’s win over Ukraine, with or without his involvement is important for his survival. An overall ‘genuine’ stability within Belarus seems a distant dream with the war still going on and President Lukashenko still being in power.

About the Author
Indrani Talukdar is a Faculty at Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service, Delhi.


War in Ukraine: Day 374 & 375
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 04 March, Ukraine’s East Group of Armed Forces spokesperson reported on Russia destroying the bridge linking Bakhmut with Khromove, a nearby village. According to the report the situation remains difficult and has become the prime target for both Ukraine and Russia.

On 05 March, Ukraine border service reported on the incapability of the forces to get through the “zone of permanent fire damage.” In the report it stated the investigation on Russian losses was on going and observes the attacks by Russia to be severe across Donetsk. In a statement: “The enemy set up positions by the forest strip, firing at Ukrainian positions. Due to effective spotting by our aerial reconnaissance, the target was destroyed.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 05 March, RT reported on Ukraine’s new automatic system which screens out “malicious websites” used in scamming and phishing. According to the report, the system will list out such websites every 15 minutes that can be blocked. The Ukraine’s National Center for Operating and Management of Telecommunication Networks said: “The system is not intended for filtering domains and restricting access to Internet resources that are used to spread malicious programs, propaganda, disinformation, etc., as well as for Internet resources restricted under sanctions.”

On 04 March, Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergey Shoigu visit to Donetsk was reported in RT. Upon the visit the Defence Minister discussed on “medical units and broader supply issues.” The visit comes amidst heavy shelling in the Bakhmut area.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
On 05 March, UK’s Intelligence observed that Russia had advanced further into Bakhmut “northern suburbs,” which pushed Ukraine to destroy its two important bridges which operated as “resupply route. On the ISW, the US based think tanks reported on Ukraine making move to withdraw from the eastern front of the Donetsk. According to Deutsche Welle, Russia capturing Bakhmut would mean a on ground benefit to bar Ukraine’s supply route and additional advantage to proceed to hold strong in eastern Donetsk.

On 05 March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after meeting US President Joe Biden stated that only on Russian withdrawal can initiate negotiation. He mentioned how static the next months can be, but Germany will continue to support Ukraine in all domains. Scholz assured the help to Ukraine and expressed his intention to talk with other EU member states to guarantee security for Ukraine.

On 04 March, NATO’s Commander in Chief, Christopher Cavoli reported on the total loss of personnel for Russia were 200,000 soldiers and 1800 officers since the war began. In an average he observed close to 23,000 artillery rounds to be fired each day by Russia.

On 05 March, Italy’s Minister of Entrepreneurship and National Production highlighted the importance of helping Ukraine build the transport corridor linking Northern Italian cities. This is expected to facilitate as “logistics and port platform” to alternate the sea blockade Ukraine experiences. The Minister said: “One of the cornerstones on which measures to restore Ukraine will be based is precisely the railway infrastructure and port logistics platform of northeastern Italy.”

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 04 March, the Republic of Korea sent four excavators as part of the restoration aid to Ukraine. This will help in speeding the repair work of energy infrastructure according to the Energy Ministry of Ukraine. It also reported of receiving 10 sets of “humanitarian aid from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea. Since the war Republic of Korea has focused in ensuring support to Ukraine energy sector thorough solar panels, critical infrastructure and civil protection.

On 05 March, RT reported on highest record of oil exports to India. According to the report India ranked the third highest importer of Russian crude oil after China and the US. It also highlighted an increase of 28 per cent in the oil exports on month-on-month basis. In 2021 Russia had imported less than one per cent and as of 2023 it amounts to 35 per cent.

References
Ukrainian Army’s experience allows for rebuilding defenses, keeping hold of Bakhmut – spox,” Ukrinform, 04 March 2023
According to Kiev, Russian troops are trying to encircle Bakhmut,” spiegel.de04 March 2023
Ukraine, Urso "We are working on a logistics corridor",” quinewspisa.it05 March 2023
The border guards destroyed the mortar and manpower of the invaders with defensive actions,” dpsu.gov.ua05 March 2023
“Only 
Putin can break Russia-Ukraine stalemate, Germany's chancellor says,” Politico, 05 March 2023
New warnings about online censorship in Ukraine,” RT, 05 March 2023
Russian defense minister inspects troops amid fight for key Donbass city,” RT, 05 March 2023
Indian imports of Russian oil hit record high – media,” RT, 05 March 2023
Ukraine updates: Bakhmut residents flee as Russia presses in,” Deutsche Welle, 05 March 2023
The Republic of Korea handed over excavators to rebuild the Ukrainian energy sector,” mev.gov.ua04 March 2023

IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

ESTONIA

Kaja Kallas won with record high to form a coalition government
On 05 March, the Reform Party in Estonia won with a landslide of 37 seats in the 2023 Riigikogu elections where Kaja Kallas will be returning as the Prime Minister forming the coalition. Kallas said: “It seems that the voter has spoken. From what I gathered from the screen, we did quite well for ourselves." She also received 31,821 personal mandates a record high for any Estonian politician. The turnout of the elections was around 615,009 and over half participated through online voting creating another record-high event since Estonia's independence.
(“Reform Party takes landslide win in 2023 Riigikogu elections,” ERR News, 06 March 2023; “Top six takeaways from Estonia's 2023 Riigikogu elections,” ERR News, 06 March 2023)

GREECE
Thousands of protests against the negligence of the train crash
On 05 March, Protests were held in front of the Greek parliament on Syntagma Square against the government and the rail company for the deadly rail crash. The protest also saw violence as the police clashed with the protestors who gathered and released black balloons in memory of the lost lives. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed his sympathies and regret for the train crash killing 57 people said: “As prime minister, I owe a big apology to everyone, but above all to the victims' relatives.” A 59-year-old was held responsible for the accident under Negligent Homicide. The negligence by the rail company and the negligence of the government with the staff responsible were heavily criticized. 
(“Greece: Thousands protest train crash as PM offers apology,” Deutsche Welle, 05 March 2023)

ITALY
Meloni says Frontex didn't announce an “emergency signal” for the shipwreck
On 04 March, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Frontex didn’t not issues an emergency when the EU border coast guard informed about the crowded nature of the boat which later sank 60 people. The victims were from Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan where roughly 80 survived the accident. The Frontex did share evidence regarding potential distress at sea, where the number thermal screen found a high number of people in the boat. There were two patrol boats taking part in the rescue mission which was halted due to bad weather conditions. When the tragedy was revealed to the public the GDF did not mention the warning made due to thermal signs for distress signals.
(“Italy did not classify Frontex’s communication as ‘emergency’ before the shipwreck,” Euractiv, 05 March 2023)
 
UK

Budget for 40 new hospital plan hit by inflation
On 05 March, Financial Times reported that the UK government in the face of high inflation is struggling to keep up with the flagship pledge, of building 40 new hospitals by 2030 with a budget shortage of EUR 2 billion for the NHS. The health department and the treasury are facing a dilemma and are likely planning to put the project on halt, prioritizing five hospitals that need urgent attention with roof fixing. While the building of the new hospital was the main part of Boris's campaign in 2019, most of the projects focused on refurbishment with only 10 projects securing full planning permission. Downing Street is facing the dilemma as if to announce cuts in infrastructure cuts in one statement or individual announcement for singular projects. 
(Sarah Neville, Jim Pickard, “Inflation hits UK government pledge to build 40 new hospitals,” Financial Times, 05 March 2023)

Sunak plans to bar cross-channel migration
On 05 March, Financial Times reports that Rishi Sunak will be introducing new laws halting anyone reaching the UK by small boats. In a move to control cross-channel migration, the government plans to place a bill where they would set boundaries with tightening of rules. They aim to stop both people trafficking and illegal migration across the channels. He also plans to meet French president Emmanuel Macron for improving cooperation in halting illegal migration. Sunak said: “I have made the issue of illegal migration one of my top five priorities — pledging to stop the boats once and for all." The democrats have criticized this move s half-baked and that they were no pragmatic legal steps taken to stop unsafe routes for asylum seekers. 
(Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe,“Rishi Sunak to introduce new laws to stem cross-Channel migration,” Financial Times, 05 March 2023)
 
UKRAINE

Controversial media reforms criticised
On 05 March, Les Echos reported the controversial media law that reforms Ukraine's media regulations. The reforms extend biased powers to the regulators extending their influence to not only radio and television but to social media platforms like Youtube. Giving the right to regulators to impose fines and revoke the license to publish content without a court decision. They would also establish strong censorship tools by giving disproportionate powers to regulators. The move has been criticised by many as curbing the freedom of expression as the state plan to extend its control over them. The law also strictly prohibits material questions o the territorial integrity of war or any pro -Russian propaganda. 
(“In Ukraine, a law reforming the media is controversial,” Les Echos, 05 March 2023)
 
GENDER

Women proportionally engaged in lower-paying jobs
On 05 March, Frankfurter Allgemeine reports that in Germany there is a large proportion of women engaged in poorly paid jobs. The presence of women in food retail, florist and personal care, gastronomy and horse industry are proportionally high which can be compiled in the section on lower-paying jobs. According to Federal Employment Agency (BA) when it comes to more lucrative jobs except for the medical sphere women are low in number for the highest-paying jobs. There are only 6.5 per cent of aircraft pilots, 14.8 per cent of technical researchers and only 22 per cent who are managing directors and board members. The only lucrative field women have proportionate representation in is the medical field with 53.9 per cent estimated. There has been a proposal to promote women in higher-paying jobs and award equal representation.
(“High proportion of women in poorly paid jobs,” Franffurter Allgemeine, 05 March 2023)
 

Spain to announce gender parity law  
On 03 March, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez addressed the gathering of the socialist party rally about the Equal law representation bill to be held for cabinet discussion. The legislation planned proposes to form a planned gender party law for equal representation of women in politics, business and other public fields. The law will demand a list of companies with more than 250 employees and with an annual turnover of EUR 50 million to assign 40 per cent of their women employees to management roles. The law also announces the need to bring the party obligation for women representatives in parliament to 50 per cent. (“Spanish PM Sanchez announces planned gender-parity law,” Deutsche Welle, 03 March 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

EU textile waste reaching Africa
On 05 March, European Environment Agency (EEA) announced that Europe is struggling to handle an ever-growing amount of used textiles which end up being exported to Africa. The remnant of textiles adds to the fourth largest source of climate change and environmental degradation. According to EEA “As reuse and recycling capacity in Europe is limited, a large share of used textiles are exported to Africa and Asia, where their fate is “highly uncertain, as limited and mostly anecdotal evidence is available.” IN 2019 46 per cent of textiles ended up in Arica where most of it was either reused or reached open landfills and informal waste streams. The Fashion industry is responsible for 10 per cent of carbon emissions with microplastics and synthetics reaching the ocean every year. If the use of average use of garments is double downed they could reduce the carbon emission by 44 per cent. (Valentina Romano,“ From Europe to Africa and Asia: the journey of discarded textiles,” Euractiv, 05 March 2023)

UN to opt for high sea protection to ensure sustainable use of the ocean
On 03 March, Deutsche Welle reported that the UN aims to alter historical deals to protect the high seas ensuring sustainable use of ocean biodiversity. After several rounds of negotiations, 100 countries agreed to legally bind the agreement for high seas protection. The change in the treaty aims to ensure sustainable use of ocean biodiversity which might reverse the effect on marine biodiversity. The step marks significant efforts to protect the high seas and marine life while protecting the interests of all countries involved. This deal will fulfil the motive of protecting 30 per cent of world oceans by 2030, as the ocean is a vital part of biodiversity there needs to generate a suitable wave of tidal energy and ocean biodiversity protection. (Tim Schauenberg,“ UN states strike a historic deal to protect high seas,” Deutsche Welle, 03 March 2023)

ENVIRONMENT

McDonald criticizes the EUs on packaging law
On 04 March, Euractiv reported on McDonald's criticism over the EU packaging waste regulation (PPWR), where they want to shift from single-use packaging to reusable ones. This shift has to be in phases with 10 per cent in 2030, and 40 per cent by 2040. A study by Kearney consulting firms found that this would inevitably lead to a surge in plastic prices to replace paper bags. The total plastic waste might increase to 300 per cent whereas reusable packaging would lead to increased consumption of water requiring 1.4 billion litres. Mcdonald's says that this move will affect their efforts to remove plastics and that the reusable method can be unhygienic which would eventually reach the landfills. The packaging law came under scrutiny to find out alternatives other than just the reusability of containers. (Valentina Romano, “McDonald’s warns EU packaging law will cause plastic surge” Euractiv, 04 March 2023)


03 March 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #451

Ukraine war: Day 372

Turkey accused for human rights violation; France's National Rally propose mandate to address environmental concern; Meloni visits India; EU aid to Somalia

Photo : AP / Alex Brandon / RT


War in Ukraine: Day 372
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 02 March, Ukrinform reported on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcement to provide Gepard self-propelled guns, and Iris-T systems. He also assured the production of projectiles and spare parts for Ukraine. Till now close to 3,000 Ukrainians have been trained in Germany, which has become the central hub for training.

On 02 March, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry reported on the total borrowings of Ukraine against the state budget. The borrowings was summed to UAH 226.8 for the period January – February 2023, accounting for 58.8 per cent of the budget. According to the report, the allocation for placement bonds was increased to UAH 84 billion, military government bonds was for UAH 21.8 billion and UAD 142.8 billion was raised through external support. For 2022 state borrowings to the state budget amounted to UAH 1,261.1 billion.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 March, RT reported on the meet between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the G20 summit in New Delhi. During the meeting Blinken urged Russia to sign back to the START treaty, while Lavrov stressed on the “hybrid war” of the US on Russia as deterrence to discussion.

On 02 March, Russia’s Bryansk Region Governor, reported on Ukraine strike in Russia’s border villages Lyubechane and Sushany.  According to the Governor: “..today a sabotage-reconnaissance group intruded from Ukraine.” On the same, the Federal Security Service (FSB) confirmed that the situation in Bryansk was in control but two were reported to have injured. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called the incident as “terrorist attack.” He did not assert it to be Ukraine but issued a warning.

On 02 March, Bank of Russia Head Elvira Nabiullina, stated that the sanctions imposed by the West would not create shock for Russia’s banking system. According to her, the banks that were subject to sanctions had adjusted and remaining had enough time to reduce the assets that were restricted by sanctions. She added that, it can impact the “dynamics of the banking sector and to some extent Russia’s economy. Although the measure taken by Russia was not disclosed, Nabiullina says that they are being take to reduce the impact of sanctions.

On 02 March, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson condemned the movement of “Serbia-made ammunition” into Ukraine. In a statement: “This is too serious an issue, with implications on Russian-Serbian relations, to react reflexively.” In the report, Krusik weapons works had sold rockets to a Turkish which was reported to have sent into Ukraine through Slovakia. RT reported that the 122-millimeter projectiles used in M-21 multiple rocket launcher is used by Russia and Ukraine. In response, representative from Krusik countered saying the sale contract included a condition of being used by the Turkish and not re-export. On the same lines, Serbia’s Defence Minister denied such export of weapons to Ukraine.


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 02 March, UK intelligence in its daily update observed how increasing temperatures during spring would form “muddy conditions” which will restrict cross country movement. This is seen as an advantage for those defending and impose limitations in movement of heavy armoured vehicles, especially in Bakhmut.

On 02 March, Olaf Scholz in his address to the parliament urged China not to provide weapons to Russia in the Ukraine war. Instead he urged China to use its influence in making Russia withdraw. He stressed that there can be no peace without inclusion of Ukrainians and added: “The government I lead never takes decisions on arms deliveries lightly.”

On 02 March, during the G20 meeting organized by India, the major discussion among the Foreign Minister weighed on Ukraine war. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can.” EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell expressed his confidence in India to take efforts in making Russia understand about bringing the war to an end. On the same Blinken said: “If Russia — President Putin — were genuinely prepared to engage in meaningful diplomacy necessary to end the aggression, of course we'd be the first to work to engage, but there's zero evidence of that.”


The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 02 March, the IMF mission on Ukraine stated that from 08 March to 15 March, discussion on future cooperation programme will be discussed. According to the Finance Minister parameters to establish a full programme will be discussed during the meet along with terms and scope.

References
State borrowings to budget reach UAH 226.8B since year-start - Finance Ministry,” Ukrinform, 02 March 2023
Scholz announces more Gepard, Iris-Т systems for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 02 March 2023
Russia comments on ‘Serb weapons’ in Ukraine,” RT, 02 March 2023
Blinken and Lavrov meet at G20,” RT, 02 March 2023
No shock to economy expected from new sanctions – Bank of Russia,” RT, 02 March 2023
Russia's FSB issues statement on Ukrainian saboteur attack,” RT, 02 March 2023
Russian governor reports Ukrainian attack on border villages,” RT, 02 March 2023
Germany's Scholz urges China not to send Russia weapons,” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2023
UK MOD Intelligence update,” Twitter, 02 March 2023
India's Modi calls for unity at G20 meeting,” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2023
IMF mission to Ukraine set to kick off work in Warsaw March 8 - finance minister,” Ukrinform, 02 March 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

FRANCE

Survey reveals fall in popularity of Macron over passing of pension reform scheme
On 02 March, Les Echos reported on an exclusive survey conducted by the Elabe Barometer calculating popularity and trust in the French leader. Emmanuel Macron saw a decline in popularity and trust in his pension reforms this was furthered by far-right opposition voicing their dissent. The Trust rating has seen a minimal rise of two per cent for Macron after the gradual decline since the pension reform announcement. The distrust is still at large with 63 per cent of French people doubting his leadership. The drop out of favour can be seen in the age group of 50-56-year-old individuals, mostly close to the retirement population as most of the population can't forget the tensions the reforms brought. (Isabelle Ficek “EXCLUSIVE SURVEY - Emmanuel Macron stems his decline in public opinion thanks to retirees and the right” Les Echos, 02 March 2023)

GERMANY

Federal Statistical Office estimates 23 per cent of its population to be immigrants
On 03 March, Frankfurter Allgemeine reports that according to Federal Statistical Office 23 per cent of the population today migrated to Germany since the 1950s. In 2021 around 14.2 million people migrated to Germany making it 17.3 per cent, and now with their descendants born in Germany adding another 4.7 million people saw a  5.7 per cent rise. While comparing to other EU countries Germany stood in seventh place with an above-average rate than their 27 member states. This was a micro census based on a sample survey, the study focused on two groups of immigrants the ‘first generation’ where both parents came here in the 1950s and the ‘second generation’ the descendants of the above immigrants, the study purposefully opted out the census including single immigrant parents and is yet to study the effect of Ukraine war on German immigration trend.  (“In Germany, 23 percent of the population have immigrated since 1950, ” Franffurter Allgemeine, 3 March 2023)
 
SWEDEN

Migration Minister proposes way to increase support for migrants who return voluntarily 
On 01 March, Swedish Migration Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard proposed to work on ways to increase ‘voluntary return migration.’ Malmer states that the return of migrants has been poorly treated and not focused upon as there has been a large influx of migrants who were not able to integrate themselves into Swedish society. There is a proportionately large population of Sweden’s around 20 per cent that live abroad with 33 per cent having at least one parent aboard. The proposal stressed that those people who want to go back to their home countries including Swedish natives should be provided with information and support. This move has been criticized by several as a gambit to push fair right political agenda. The migration issues can strain the Swedish government financially as voluntary migration relies on economic incentives with financial support to leave Sweden. ( Charles Szumski, “Sweden’s new ‘voluntary return’ migration push raises eyebrows ” Euractiv, 2 March 2023)

REGIONAL

Turkey accused for committing crimes against humanity by Belgium firms and NGOs
On 02 March, Euractiv reports that a complaint has been filed against Turkey for “Crimes against Humanity.” The petitioners are the Belgian law firm Van Steenbrugge Advocaten (VSA), the Belgium-based NGO Turkey Tribunal, and the European judges’ association Magistrates. International Criminal Court finds evidence against Erdogan regime for crimes committed after a failed coup initiated by a Belgium-based firm and NGO. It is estimated that around 200,000 people were tortured, disappeared and incarcerated without due process. The petitioners claim that the Erdogan regime systemically attacked the civilian population to safeguard their governmental policies. (Anne-Sophie Gayet “Turkey taken to International Court for ‘crimes against humanity’ ,” Euractiv, 2 March 2023)

French Court Auditor estimates Ukraine refugees to have received EUR 630 million aid in France
On 28 February, French Court Auditor estimated that they received 115,000 displaced Ukrainians who have been receiving EUR 630 million. Under the temporary protection regime, they have been receiving satisfactory conditions that allow them to settle freely while being protected by unprecedented social rights, access to health care, school and emergency accommodation. The accommodation cost per place and per day could be aggregated to EUR 38 with shelter provision under common law. Since the end of 2020, nearly 900 homes have received financial aid from the state with EUR 150 enveloped every month aggregating to some EUR 786,000. There has been rising concern over the long-term nature of the war and how much can the can state provide. (“ Reception of Ukrainian refugees in France: after the emergency, the challenge of duration,” Les Echos, 28 February 2023)

ENERGY
French National Rally party proposed a mandate for environmental concerns
On 01 March, French National Rally a far-right party proposed their environmental concerns and the need for a local response to the global disorder. According to them, it is absolutely prohibited to build more wind turbines in the countryside because they destroy the landscape. When it comes to agriculture, they should not just focus on halting pesticide use which is vital for market competition and mostly affects the farmer's livelihood. The manifesto proposed states to look inwards, pushing preference for French products and French jobs and French investment in French companies. The critics have called out these acts as a “Façade manifesto” and a move to flatter the electorate rather than being backed with research and data a political move to garner attention. (Davide Basso, “Sovereignty and conservatism: Environmental approach of France’s far-right” Euractiv, 2 March 2023)
 

Danish Energy agency halts ‘Open Door’ policy suspends offshore wind turbine projects
On 02 March, Nord News reports that the Danish Energy agency have suspended the “Open door” policy halting 28 wind turbine projects that are worth billions. This came as a shock as the open-door policy allowed companies to submit a project proposal to municipalities rather than them only tenders for the set company for particular projects. Critics argue that this is a major setback for green transitioning measures as companies have done the major groundwork to build on green energy initiatives where the government have suddenly “pulled the plug”. The critics are asking for a reason for this suspension as they slammed the offshore wind turbine projects. (“Offshore wind turbine projects on the rocks,” Nord News, 2 March 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL 

Meloni and Modi discuss future peace negotiations for Ukraine war
On 02 March, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and stated that India is a major player in brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia. Meloni said that India is well aware of Italy's support of Ukraine and that she hopes to see India facilitating the ending of hostilities between the two countries as the G20 president. They further discussed strategic bilateral ties aiming for increased trade cooperation where it now stands at EUR 15 billion a double amount since 2020. Both leaders agreed on how more can be done to further their bilateral relations and that they should take proactive measures to increase ties. (“India can facilitate 'just peace' in Ukraine – Meloni,” Ansa.it, 02 March 2023)

EU to aid Somalia for smooth transition of powers
On 02 March, The Political and Security Committee of the EU agreed to provide support for the Somalian National Army (SNA) and the African Union of Transition Mission Somalia (ATMIS). The aim is to hand over responsibility to both institutions and to strengthen their capacities. EU plans to provide with EUR 85 million for ATMIS and EUR 23 million for SNA. This would provide ATMIS with troops allowance for African deployed soldiers and for SNA it would aid the production of non-lethal equipment and infrastructure work under the supervision of the EU. (“EU support to Somalia: Council approves further support under the European Peace Facility to the Somali National Army and to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS),” European Council, 02 March 2023)


02 March 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #450

Ukraine war: Day 371

Putin launches longest subway project; Natual gas wells in Hungary; UK's cut on marine protected area

Photo : AP


War in Ukraine: Day 371
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 01 March, Ukraine armed forces, General Staff updated on the ground situation. According to the report Ukraine’s air force had carried out 16 strikes in Russian controlled areas in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as it observed Russia shifting into offensive mode. It observed the Russian strikes to be targeted in “Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.”

On 01 March, Ukraine’s armed forces eastern command spokesperson Serhii Cherevatyi reported on the nature of the Wagner Group soldiers. He stated that Russia had deployed soldiers who had previously fought in Syria and Libya for the fight in Bakhmut. He said: “A characteristic feature is that the enemy threw the most prepared Wagner units into the attack.” Cherevatyi confirmed the continued “heavy fighting” in Bakhmut and how Ukrainians have been successful in inflicting “enormous losses” for Russia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 March, on the fight in Bakhmut, the Wagner Group Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin reported on fierce fighting by the Ukraine forces to deter Russia from capturing the city. He added that Ukraine was deploying extra reserve units in Bakhmut which has challenged Russia’s move to encircle the city. Prigozhin said: “Tens of thousands of Ukrainian army fighters are putting up furious resistance. The bloodiness of the battles is growing by the day.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 March, Finland’s Parliament passed a bill with maximum votes in favour of Finland joining NATO. Due to Turkey and Hungary’s bloc on Sweden and Finland over security concerns, the accession has been prolonged, but Hungary will be holding a vote by 09 March to decide its stance. While the both place a block, Finland is expected to join first as Turkey is against Sweden’s accession, as it consider it be protecting the Kurdish terrorists.

On 01 March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the plan to increase the “ammunition production capacity,” along with “replacement and repair” capability. This would continue to proceed as the support to Ukraine goes on. 

On 01 March, US President Joe Biden announced the extension of sanctions on Russia for another year. The decision comes after the US made an assessment that action and policies taken by Russia continue to threaten Ukraine’s “peace, security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 01 March, Germany’s car manufacturer Volkswagen (VW) reported on its efforts to sell the plant located in Kaluga, a city in Russia. According to a spokesperson from VW: “One of the options is to sell the assets of Volkswagen Group Rus, and thus also the plant in Kaluga, to a third party…Talks on this are ongoing and a decision has not yet been finalized.” Russia’s car dealer Avilon was reported to be interested in taking over the plant. The VW operating in Russia stopped its manufacturing along with exports to Russia in March 2022, upon one of its co-owner Oleg Deripaska coming under the sanction list.

On 01 March, Deutsche Welle reported on G20 Foreign Ministers meeting in New Delhi. US spokesperson Antony Blinken, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to attend the meeting. Although the discussion will be on addressing poverty, and climate finance, Ukraine war will form the center of the discussion.

References
Enemy continues assault on Bakhmut – General Staff,” Ukrinform, 01 March 2023
Russia using in Bakhmut Wagner fighters with Syria, Libya war experience,” Ukrinform, 01 March 2023
Russia Tries to Close Ring on Bakhmut as Ukrainians Mount ‘Furious Resistance’,” english.aawsat.com, 01 March 2023
Message to the Congress on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to Ukraine,” whitehouse.gov, 01 March 2023
Finnish Parliament passes Nato bill by vote of 184 for, 7 against,” Helsinki Times, 01 March 2023
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy calls for ICC Russia probe,” Deutsche Welle, 01 March
No decision on sale of Volkswagen's last Russian factory, says govt,” Reuters, 01 March 2023


IN BRIEF 
By Femy Francis

ITALY

Giorgia Meloni proposed for safer migrant regulation to the European council
On 01 March, Giorgia Meloni proposed to the European Council the need for safe and legal migrant entry to the Union saying, “We must all work together to reaffirm the principle that you only enter Europe legally and therefore in a condition of total safety and security.” She urged for a boost in legal migration system channels to be split between those who are entitled to be protected and those who intend to enter for the reason of employment. They also need to work on halting the fuel that engines mass illegal migration and the EU needs to take a concrete intervention. This comes to light as there has a major shipwreck in the Calabria claims over 100 lives, adding pressure to provide better channels with Meloni asking for funding from various nations. (“EU must work for legal, safe migrant entry says Meloni,” Ansa.it, 01 March 2023)

RUSSIA

President launched the world's longest subway project
On 01 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that they would be launching a ‘Big Circle Line’ as part of the Moscow metro project. The metro line is amongst the most ambitious projects Russia has seen with 31 stations covering up to 70 kilometres of railroads making it the largest subway line in the world. This comes in light despite Russia waging war on Ukraine and being heavily burdened by the world with sanctions and boycotts, a move to show their ever-growing domestic economy despite the international tensions. (“Putin Opens Up Biggest Underground Circle Line in the World,” Sputnik, 01 March 2023)

REGIONAL

European Council aims to establish system to monitor sustainable goals of entities
On 28 February, European Council reports that they would be implementing strategies for financing sustainable growth as they move closer to transitioning to climate-neutral goals and a resource-efficient economy. In 2021 they proposed the establishment of European green bonds (EuGB) aiming to pursue environmentally sustainable goals as the Council look to form a system to supervise entities. It laid down the uniform requirement for the use of bonds that are aligned with EU taxonomy and environmentally sustainable goals. (“Sustainable finance: Provisional agreement reached on European green bonds,” European Council, 28 February 2023)

ENERGY

Natural gas wells found in Hungary to produce 1.4 billion cubic meters 
On 28 February, Hungary drilled three shallow gas wells discovering natural gas within two months by Hungarian oil and gas company MOL. It's estimated that the amount found can provide for 20,000 average-sized family homes for a few years which comes the as good news, especially in times when the world is facing an energy crisis. They launched the shallow gas program in 2019 as they targeted gas fields near the surface. At present they have drilled 18 wells out of which 16 were successful, and shallow gas accounts for five per cent of company production accounting for 1.4 billion cubic meters'. Hungary sits over huge gas fields that in theory could supply energy for a century, but they are hard to reach as they are unconventional gas. MOL Hungary, Director of Exploration and Production, Ádám Homonnay said: “Hungary currently has a well-developed gas pipeline infrastructure, which allows for the production of the discovered material in a short time (5-6 months on average), and the delivery of the produced gas to the population and industrial consumers.” (“Thousands of Homes to Be Supplied with Newly Found Natural Gas,” Hungary Today, 02 March 2023)

Neoen's net revenue increases by 10 per cent
On 01 March, Les Echos reported that the French renewable producer Neoen's revenue went up to 10 per cent in 2022 and is for 20 gigawatts of installation by 2030. As the demand is pushed by the consumers for green electricity, Neoen is set to take its place as a vital actor among vitality firms. In 2021 they introduced a 10-gigawatt goal in operation or less which has now reached 7.4 Gigawatts closely reaching its potential with the company’s net worth being EUR 4 billion. The CEO of Neoen points out that “fundamentals that help the world’s electrical energy desire, and extra importantly, the demand for environmentally friendly energy has not modified, and has even strengthened even more.” The company rose 50 per cent in value to EUR 503.2 million as they enter a new quarter. (“Renewable energies: Neoen wants to enter the big leagues,” Les Echos, 01 March 2023)

GENDER

Germany's Foreign and Development minister's proposes inclusion of gender in foreign policy
On 01 March, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and German Development Minister Svenja Schulze proposed to invest in gender equality policies. They released a list of new directives to develop lobbying for prioritizing women in all fields. Schulze stated the benefits of “feminist foreign policy” being a more equal society would mean less suffrage, hunger and poverty as it works towards making the society more equal in all senses.  Germany seeks to invest EUR 12 billion in development projects where they specifically tackle gender equality with that they are looking into the creation of an ‘ambassador of feminist foreign policy’ to further the cause. Greens party spokesperson said: “We will also more systematically allocate our financial resources in the service of feminist foreign policy.” The main plan of the proposal is to allocate eight per cent of the development project funds to gender equality initiatives and that the government would make sure that they can participate in equal footing by being accessible to women. Germany also looks into promoting this initiative worldwide by establishing feminist women mediators in the African Union. (“German government to promote 'feminist foreign policy',” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2023)

MARITIME

UK government cuts back on highly protected marine areas
On 28 February, The Guardian reports that England plans to create three Highly protected Marine Areas (HMA) instead of five as part of their scale-back plan. There were five sites proposed to receive the highest level of protection for the regeneration of marine life but two were dropped concerning socioeconomic impacts especially the livelihood of fishers. Conservationists and environmentalists have criticized this move, as the sights were removed after protests by the locals. The remaining three sites Allonby Bay in Cumbria, Dolphin Head in the eastern Channel and northeast of Farnes Deep, in the North Sea would be developed by the sixth of July. The marine conservationist said that it took them three years to reach this decision at this rate to protect 30 per cent of marine life it would take 260 years. The move has been called nonsensical by marine biologists who are saddened by the cutdown but happy for the other three. (“Government scales back plan for highly protected marine areas in England,” Guardian, 28 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Viktor Orban and Abdel Fattah met Hungary and Egypt strengthening bilateral relations  
On 28 February, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Egypt president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. They discussed their historical and bilateral relations. The Ukraine war led to Hungary to stress on peace and its efforts to reduce tensions. Orban said: "We are also prepared to engage in disputes with the Western world because we want a diplomatic solution, a ceasefire, and peace talks.” They discussed the issue of illegal migration and that there is a need to provide a strong baseline. Hungary and Egypt look forward to strengthening economic ties to invest in agriculture, food, energy and tourism. They also announced inter-company negotiations to purchase Liquefied natural gas from Egypt so that it can be supplied to the Hungarian government from 2026. (“Viktor Orbán Holds Talks in Cairo,” Hungary Today, 02 March 2023)

China to become the largest importer of LNG 
On 01 March, Frankfurter Allgemeine reports that China's increased investment in Liquified Natural Gas can be threatening to Europe. USD 60 billion have been contracted between China and Qatar, making China soon to be a dominant player in the world market of LNG. Starting in 2026 Beijing will be supplied by Qatar with four million tons of LNG every year for a period of 27 years. Now that the covid restrictions are down the second largest economy looks to get energy from Qatar, Russia and other pacific rivals therefore ‘China buys what it can get. ‘China can be seen as becoming soon the world’s largest importer this means for Europe it won’t be as easy to get LNG as they would have to compete with Chinese buyers. (“China buys whatever gas it can get,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 01 March 2023)


01 March 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #449

Ukraine war: Day 370

Increase in Turkey's GDP; UK-EU sign Windsor framework; Lukashenko visit to China

Photo : Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 370
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 28 February, the Ukraine armed forces Commander reported on the battle situation in Bakhmut to be “extremely tense.” He remarked that despite Russia facing losses, it has been deploying Wagner group to break into the defences held by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy added: “The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions for fortification and defence.”

On 28 February, Ukraine government announced its decision to apply for candidacy in the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for 2023 to 2025. Ukraine’s Energy Minister highlighted how Ukraine continues to strive to align with European energy market as per the Ukraine energy strategy till 2050. It prioritises nuclear generation and renewable energy as way to bifurcate Ukraine’s power system.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 February, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in his address in the meeting with the Federal Security Service, took stock of 2022 operations and highlighted areas to work better for future. He asked to continue the assistance given to the armed forces especially in “counterintelligence” and exchange of “operational significant information.” Putin stressed on increasing the support for the security agencies in DPR, LPR, Zaporozhzhia and Kherson areas by adding more equipment, and operational capability.  He called for protection of law enforcement structures, critical technologies, personal data and strengthening of economic security in the face of special military operation. On the same day, Putin signed the law ending Russia’s contract to the New START Treaty.

On 28 February, Russia imposed a fine on Wikimedia Foundation for “spreading misinformation.” It fined EUR 25,000 on the Organization for not removing two articles relating to war.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 28 February, after the Samak Nordic summit NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine becoming a NATO member remains a long-term goal and the present issue relates to fighting for sovereignty and providing support. He stressed on how NATO must act to prevent such future wars and has to take measure to ensure Russia does not break into European and Ukraine security. Stoltenberg added: “I hear concerns that our support increases the risk of escalation. But as long as our biggest neighbor is willing to invade another country, there are no risk-free options…supporting Ukraine is not only the morally right thing to do. It is also in our own security interest.” He also highlighted how NATO keeps Finland and Sweden accession as first and increase the exercises in the Nordic to assure the security.

On 28 February, Turkey’s State Agency of Land Melioration and Fisheries approved the quality standard certificate to Ukraine to export its fish products. According to the report: “From now on, Ukrainian producers of fish products have new opportunities to sell their own products - the export market to Türkiye has opened.” Ukrinform reported on 2022 figures, where Ukraine had exported 8,400 tonnes of fishes and aquatic biological products. This is exported to Moldova, Germany, the US, Denmark, and Lithuania. Since the approval, Ukraine now will be able to export to Turkey.

On 28 February, Finland began to construct 200 kilometre fence on the border shared with Russia. This will start with forest clearance and then proceed to road construction and plotting of the fence, it is planned to be three-kilometer long in the southeastern border crossing, estimated to be completed by June. Another set of construction is scheduled to happen between 2023 and 2025 for another 200 kilometeres at cost of EUR 380 million.

References
Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),” Ukrinform, 28 February 2023
Meeting of the Board of the FSB of Russia,” Kremlin.ru, 28 February 2023
Ukraine updates: Fighting around Bakhmut 'extremely tense',” Deutsche Welle, 28 February 2023
Secretary General in Helsinki: time to welcome Finland and Sweden as NATO members,” NATO, 28 February 2023
Ринок Туреччини відкрито для експорту української рибної продукції,” darg.gov.ua, 28 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

BELARUS
Lukashenko discusses financial plan for procuring military equipment and weapons
On 27 February, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko said that they are keeping close tabs on the military ad industrial production given the threats Belarus is facing. He reiterated that despite the threats and sanctions imposed they are able to produce enough weapons and military equipment. As they are easily able to procure hardware from Russia and preserved technologies inherited from Russia. Lukashenko stated that they could export to 57 countries as they have also been able to develop modern weapons while they are mastering new areas including calibre artillery ammunition. Russia has supplied Belarus with Iskander operational tactical missile system and an S-400 long-range anti-craft missile. (“Lukashenko: Belarus keeps tabs on defense industry given modern threats,” Belta, 27 February 2023)

DENMARK
Government removal of a national holiday to increase defence spending lead to protests
On 28 February, Demark plans to remove the public holiday of “Great Prayer Day” to generate more funds and boost defence savings. As the nation tries to reach NATO’s spending target they want to alter the country’s welfare model. The bill passed with 95 votes stating that shops and businesses will remain open. The government argues that this move would add EUR 403 million to the public sector as people would work for additional 7.4 hours. Unions, churches and opposed the move through protest against the bill. (“Denmark abolishes public holiday to boost defense spending,” Deutsche Welle, 01 March 2023)

HUNGARY
Viktor Orban addresses the state on the Ukraine war, inflation and Child protection
On 25 February, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban addressed the state in Budapest. He began by acknowledging the efforts of rescue workers in Turkey and Syria who have saved 35 individuals from the rubble. Talked about his electoral success even in the face of the united left being against them and that not even US left funding could defeat them. The economy and the call for national reunification were stressed stating the focus on family policy, a work-based economy and pensioners' aid to be the focus of the coming year. Orban criticized the sanction imposed saying, “Providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine does not mean cutting off relations with Russia, so we will not agree to sanctions that would destroy Hungary.” He expressed the want for peace and how EU and US sanctions are also affecting the world economy. The coming US elections would be a vital turning point for the war strategy as they said Orban as their “Republican friends” would opt for pro-peace demanding to cease fire. He stressed how the sanctions have taken EUR 10 billion out of Hungarian pockets in 2022 which has reached record inflation. He further enlisted no tolerance for paedophilia and stated the Child protection policies would be strengthened in protecting the children. (“Viktor Orbán Holds State of the Nation Address,” Hungary Today, 25 February 2023)

TURKEY
FT reports on Turkey's GDP increase of 5.6 per cent
On 28 February, Financial Times reported that the Turkish economy grew owing to the rapid rise in consumer spending where the GDP rose to 5.6 per cent on an inflation-adjusted basis. The period before the earthquake was focused on economic pumping output while now eve with inflation consumer buying has increased as they prefer to purchase items before they become more expensive. According to the report, Turkey has adapted to high inflation through government support under Erdogan there has been a boost in minimum wage and public sector salaries. While the full impact of the disaster on the Turkish economy remains to be seen. The is a growing expectation for a short time hit to growth and dependency on government funding amid recovery efforts. (Adam Samson, “Turkish economy’s growth driven by strong consumer spending,” Financial Times, 28 February 2023)

REGIONAL
EU and UK sign Windsor framework reforming the Northern Ireland protocol
On 27 February, Britain and the EU settled their dispute over Northern Ireland's trading rules. As UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen took a step towards a ‘new chapter’ dubbing it as the ‘Windsor framework.’ The protocol established will prevent hard borders in Ireland island. Sunak maintains that this would slash trade bureaucracy and reduce EU laws in Northern Ireland. The agreements aim to make shipment easier including pets, medicines, parcels etc. A ‘Green Lane’ would be established in Irish Sea ports reducing checks and a ‘red lane’ created for goods continuation into Ireland. However, the acceptance of the agreement by the Democratic Unionist Party would decide the formation of the government in Northern Ireland. (George Parker, Sam Fleming, Jude Webber, “EU and UK strike Brexit deal on Northern Ireland” Financial Times, 27 February 2023)

European Parliament members amend the AI act
On 15 February, Members of the European Parliament part of the amendments made to the AI act extended the ban on social scoring to private companies and installed of a regulatory sandbox to check compliance as the role of AI has been downsized. They also look to introduce a fundamental rights framework assessing the impact of AI uses especially in areas related to high risks. The formation of conformity assessment recognition is to be established as well for mutual recognition assessments among countries so that they are comparable. (Luca Bertuzzi, “AI Act: MEPs extend ban on social scoring, reduce AI Office role,” Euractiv, 28 February 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL 
Lukashenko talks to Chinese media on future cooperation with China
On 28 February, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko talked to Chinese media and expressed the high-level cooperation between Belarus and China. He also discussed the future prospects between the two countries where there are free economic ones and trade partners. Talking about the Belarusian National Biotechnology Corporation (BNBC) the launch of a vitamin production facility would need some support and for that, they believe Xi Jinping would become a possible facilitator. Expressing the years of cooperation he said, “There are very few states with which China has such a level of cooperation. We appreciate this very much, given the difference between giant China and our Belarus. We appreciate it very much.” (“Lukashenko: Belarus has been reliable friend of China and will remain so,” Belta, 27 February 2023)


28 February 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #448

Ukraine war: Day 369

Photo : Press Service of the RF Ministry of Defense/RT


War in Ukraine: Day 369
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 26 February, on the continuing fight between Ukraine and Russia in Bakhmut, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned over the increasing complexity of the situation in the frontline. He said that the forces are constantly defending despite Russia trying to destroy its protection. Since the fight in Bakhmut has been persisting, Zelenskyy urged for “modern aviation” to counter Russia than only combat aircraft. Zelenskyy removed Donbass Army Commander. The move comes as Ukraine is observed to be targeting to capture back Mariupol. On the same the UK Defence Ministry reported on series of explosions in Mariupol.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 27 February, RT reported on increased oil purchase by China from Russia in reference to the intelligence report from Kpler. According to the report, China had imported 1.66 million barrels of crude, fuel oil of Russia’s ESPO grade, Arctic grade, and Ural grade in January. Since the Ukraine war, China has been found to be contending with India on buying large amounts of Russian crude. The reason behind the purchase is mainly due to China’s recovery from COVID-19 and Russian oil being available at lower price.

On 27 February, Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed targeting a Ukrainian intelligence center in Kyiv by Russian missiles. It also updated on the continuing offensive in the Donetsk, where 250 Ukrainians are reported to have died and a ammunition depot near Bakhmut destroyed.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 27 February, the EU announced the extension of sanctions on Belarus to another year as it continues its support to Russia. Therefore the sanction will be extended till 28 February 2024, targeting 34 companies and will be banned from receiving EU funds.

On 27 February, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced the US decision to provide Abraham tanks to Ukraine after pressure from Germany. He stated that Germany agreed to send Leopard tanks only upon the US agreeing to send tanks along. Earlier, the US military did not approve the tanks as it observed to be not fitting, but to align with the interest of the alliance, the US has agreed to send the tanks.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war 

On 27 February, on the Ukraine war, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “It has unleashed widespread death, destruction and displacement.” He remarked that the war was leading to many human right violations and UNHCR had recorded dozens of “conflict related sexual violence,” cases and there have been evidences of war crimes observed in Bucha, and suburb of Kyiv.

On 27 February, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reiterated China’s position in Ukraine war. He said that China’s stance has been consistent and maintained talks with both Ukraine and Russia. Ning also stated the possibility of a meeting between Zelenskyy and China’s President Xi Jinping. Calling for the promotion of dialogue and political solution, stressed that in communication, it would ensure to involve Ukraine.

On 27 February, Kazakhstan’s government announced the liquidation of its “trade representation office” in Russia. According to the Ministry of Trade claimed that the scheduled tasks had been completed and the move would not affect the bilateral cooperation. The agreement between Kazakhstan and Russia came into force in 1992 and was renewed in 2012, the trade office was key to Kazakhstan exporters to access the Russian market and bring in foreign investors. The decision comes in reaction to the sanctions imposed on Russia, Kazakhstan does not adhere to international sanctions nor does it wish to help Russia circumvent it.

References
We need modern combat aircraft to protect the entire territory of Ukraine from Russian terror - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 27 February 2023
Russia strikes intelligence center near Kiev – MOD,” RT, 27 February 2023
Russia boosts oil exports to China – Bloomberg,” RT, 27 February 2023
Ukraine updates: Belarus activists claim Russia A-50 attack,” Deutsche Welle, 27 February 2023
China has always maintained communication with all sides including Ukraine - foreign ministry,” Reuters, 27 February 2023
The trade representation of Kazakhstan in Russia was liquidated,” zakon.kz, 27 February 2023
February 27, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news,” CNN, 27 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

ITALY
Proposes to follow Germany and France to phase out car emission law
On 25 February, Industry Minister Adolfo Urso proposed Italy’s interest in teaming with France and Germany in slowing down the pace of EU law regulating car and truck emissions. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government have criticized the decision to halt the sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035. Urso called for a more pragmatic step that is non-ideological when it comes to climate change laws and that joining in with France and Germany would put influence European regulations. He proposed Italy adopt a broader revision of “the stages of modalities of ecological transition” by 2026. (“Italy seeks alliance with France and Germany to tame EU car emissions laws,” Euractiv, 27 February 2023)

CLIMATE
Swedish forest ecosystem in danger; EU to regulate restoration law
On 27 February, EURACTIV reported that the Swedish forest ecosystem was in danger even though they look in abundance. The forest industry presents an existential threat to centuries-old Swedish landscapes. Thousands of old forests have been chopped have replaced with planted monocultures and therefore slowly ruining the habitats of sensitive species. Today there are 2000 forest species that come under the red list and tat 400 are affected by the clear-cutting of the forest ecosystem. The deceptive marketing has been called out by several activists and yet there is no local Swedish law that protects these ecosystems. Therefore, the pressure to protect these old ecosystems lies with EU legislation to protect the last remaining and restore the fragments that remain in the Swedish forest. (Gustaf Lind and Johanna Sandahl, “EU’s Nature Restoration Law: make or break for Swedish forests?” Euractiv, 27 February 2023)
 
ENERGY
France to hold meeting to form a pro-nuclear energy alliance
On 27 February, Reuters reported on the upcoming meeting organized by France with other EU member states to form an alliance to consider nuclear power into “EU energy policies.” The move comes as Germany, Spain, Austria, and Luxembourg still stand divided over renewable energy, while France, Poland, Sweden, and Hungary favors promoting nuclear as “low-carbon energy source.” The set meeting would focus on how nuclear energy can balance with climate goals and meet energy security of Europe. (Kate Abnett, “France seeks pro-nuclear alliance for EU energy talks,” Reuters, 27 February 2023)

Energy price cap raises concern over hike in household bills
On 28 February, BBC reported that the household bill is set to rise in April to EUR 3,000. While the Ofgem regulator has announced the cost cut faced by the government, there has been a call for the cut of April's hike stating that “Energy bills are out of control. The government must cancel April's hike. With the cost of wholesale gas plummeting ministers have no excuse for not stepping in.” The falling wholesale price can potentially save the government billions of pounds. The government states that the energy cap does not limit the total bill as it only limits the cost per unit of energy. (Kevin Peachey, “New energy price cap prompts call for help on bills,” BBC, 28 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
Olaf Scholz meet Modi to form trade deal
On 25 February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the strengthening of business and defence ties between the two countries regardless of differences of opinions existing on the Ukraine war. Scholz said that both countries should move towards forming a trade deal between European Union and India which long has been held over a disagreement over tariffs. They also discussed the different positions the two countries take on the Ukraine war and openly sort opinions and engaged in the assessment of the war. Sholz said, “There is huge potential for intensified cooperation, in sectors such as renewables, hydrogen, mobility, pharma, digital economy, and many more”. (“Germany’s Scholz in India to press on EU trade deal,” Euractiv, 27 February 2023)


27 February 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #447

Migrant boat crash in Italy: Three issues & Ukraine war: Day 367 & 368

Photo : AP Photo/Giuseppe Pipita


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Italy: Migrant boat crash on the Calabrian coast
On 26 February, Italy’s news agency ANSA reported on a migrant boat crash into one of the rocky reefs on Italy’s Calabrian coast that started from Turkey. According to the report, the boast was identified by Frontex aircraft, 40 miles away from the coast. Close to 100 are expected to be dead, and 80 to have survived the total number which is estimated to range from 180 to 250. During the rescue operation by the Port Authority of Crotone, the coast guards found many children to have not survived. Upon the survivors identifying the trafficker, the port authority arrested a Turkish man. The migrants were found to have come majorly from Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Syria. On the government’s position Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Meloni said: “..is committed to preventing the departures and with them the perpetration of these tragedies, and will continue to do so, first of all by demanding maximum collaboration from the States of departure and origin.” In response to the incident, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen said on Twitter: “Member States must step forward and find a solution. Now. The EU needs common and up-to-date rules that will allow us to face the challenges of migration.”


Three issues
First, the central Mediterranean a hotspot for migrant drowning. The drowning in Italy’s Calabrian coastline is only one of the many as several drownings at small number is reported every day in the central Mediterranean. Since Greece began to take stronger action such as interrupting the migrant boats or pushing them back into international waters, the traffickers from Turkey, Afghanistan, and Syria have begun to take a longer route. This is to avoid entering Greece waters and going longer into Italy’s southwestern coastline. Of the total 12000 migrants who entered Italy, 678 were reported to have come through the Calabrian coastline. Similarly, In 2015 close to 600 people drowned due to the rough tides of the sea during a crossing from Libya to Italy, and according to the data from IOM (International Organisation of Migration) 220 have died in the Mediterranean as of 2023.

Second, the government’s narrow approach to migrants. The government has taken measures towards restricting the migrant inflow by constructing walls, installing force, and tight surveillance. Unlike Greece, due to the vast nature of Italy’s coast, the taken steps have only slowed the boats from reaching the coast than stopping them. Since the new government put its first anti-migration plan into practice, the approach towards such migration can be expected to be more on prevention than providing protection. Although the rescue operations by the coast guards have been rapid, on migration policy of Italy stands differed.

Third, the EU’s inability to address the migrant challenge. The problem of migration has existed since 2015 in the EU. It is once again subject to criticism by the regional leaders and international organization to step up the funding and is under pressure to adopt a unified rescue operation for such incidents. In the case of Italy, there is no “evaluation of integration policies,” by the EU, it is carried out only when it intervenes, while the rest is left to the national assessment. Till now the attempts taken by the Italian government since 1998 to implement the “Migration Policy Planning” and “National Integration Plan for Persons Entitled to International Protection,” were not approved at the regional level resulting in Italy’s “multi-level” migration governance framework in the abyss.

References
Massacre of migrants in Calabria: three more bodies recovered, over 100 dead are feared,” ANSA, 27 February 2023
Frances D'emilio, “
Migrant boat breaks up off Italian coast, killing nearly 60,” AP News, 27 February 2023
Chico Harlan and  Stefano Pitrelli, “
Dozens dead after migrant boat breaks apart near Italian coast,” The Washington Post, 26 February 2023
Deadly shipwreck in Italy must trigger action to save lives, UN officials say,” UN, 26 February 2023
Governance of migrant integration in Italy,” European Commission, 2023
Italy’s migration policy is in breach of international law, say legal experts,” The Guardian, 08 November 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 367 & 368
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 26 February, Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that a full-fledged Russian offence into Ukraine could not be predicted due to “several scenarios.” Danilov noted that the deployment of troops along the Russia-Ukraine border was initially seen as an intimidation tactic. He further highlighted a “de-escalation” after Russia’s dialogues with the US, after which the dates for potential aggression were pushed further until 22 February 2022. He added that Ukraine does not consider 24 February 2022 as the start of the war but considers Russia’s attack on Crimea in 2014 as the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.

On 26 February, Ukraine’s Human Rights Parliament Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets claimed that since 26 February 2014, Russia has illegally held 180 political prisoners in Crimea. Lubinets added that out of the 180 prisoners, 116 are Crimean Tatars who had organized a rally outside the Crimean parliament in Simferopol on 26 February 2014. The protest was held in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Lubinets added that Russia conducts severe repression and persecution in Crimea due to the fear of potential Ukrainian resistance. 

On 26 February, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff Spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun claimed that Russia’s offensive in six areas in Donetsk have been unsuccessful. Shtupun said that in Yagidne, Bakhmut, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Severny Donetsk and Berkhivka.   

On 25 February, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry supplied Ukrgazvydobuvannya with over 62 tons of energy equipment. The Ministry stated that the electricity accumulators and powerful generators supplied were part of Sweden’s aid to help the Ukrainian energy sector. It highlighted that Sweden has transferred over 665 tons of energy equipment and materials to Ukraine since the war began.  

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 25 February, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed Switzerland’s Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis’s claims of “secret” negotiations taking place between Russia and Ukraine. Zakharova referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s move to sign a decree which banned any dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. She also dismissed the idea of potential negotiations in Switzerland due to its support of Western sanctions against Russia. She added that this shows that Switzerland is “no longer a neutral state and can’t claim any intermediary role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.”

On 26 February, Tinkoff Investments, a Russian bank stated that it will suspend trading in euros from 27 February. It said that this step was taken due to recent EU sanctions on Tinkoff’s assets in the EU which will be frozen and any future deals with them banned. It added that the sanctions do not have any impact on trade in dollars and other currencies and said that the bank had prepared for potential sanctions. It also said that it will be transferring all its assets to a new company that is not affected by sanctions.     

On 24 February, the Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said that the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) decision to suspend Russia’s membership is a “dangerous step.” Antonov said that this “leads to the erosion of the global architecture to combat money laundering, the financing of terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.” He also criticized the FATF and its members for being a party to the US’s needs and called the decisions a politically motivated one.  

On 25 February, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the group’s forces had captured Yahidne near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Prigozhin said that the storm units of the Wagner group had captured Yahidne.    

On 26 February, RT reported that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) spokesperson Fabian Maienfisch had said that Swiss banks do not legally have the right to use frozen Russian assets for other purposes. Maienfisch said that the banks can only use the assets for routine administrative purposes which include banking charges on the account and for accounting interest rates. He added: “The management of actual portfolio of frozen assets such as attracting new investments, selling assets or changing revenue is not allowed.” The SECO in January amounted to the total amount of frozen Russian Financial assets in Switzerland to CHF 7.5 billion.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 25 February, thousands protested in Berlin criticizing the German government for its continued supply of military aid to Ukraine and calling for peace talks to stop the war. The protest called “Uprising for Peace” was organized by opposition lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht, author Alice Schwarzer and many others and mostly reflected left-wing sentiments. The protestors marched with signs reading “Negotiate, not escalate” and “Not our war.” The protest was criticised by the German government for undermining Ukraine’s right to defend itself from Russian aggression. The organizers also pegged the total number of protestors at 50,000 while the police claimed that it was around 13,000.       

On 25 February, Poland’s PKN Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek said that Russia has ceased oil supplies to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline. Obajtek said: “Only 10% of crude oil has been coming from Russia and we will replace it with oil from other sources,” and added that oil can reach PKN Orlen’s refineries from the sea. He also that this will not impact the supply of diesel and gasoline to customers. The company was receiving oil from Russia’s Tatneft, an oil and natural gas company since February 2023 after its contact with Rosneft expired.    

On 25 February, the UK Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia has exhausted its stock of Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs). It highlighted the lack of reports of the OWA-UAVs being used in Ukraine after 15 February. It added that Russia will look for a resupply of the OWA-UAVs. It said that while the OWA-UAVs do not have a good track record of damaging their targets, it has been used by Russia to act as a decoy to divert Ukrainian air defence resources from detecting Russia’s cruise missiles.  

On 26 February, Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich said that Belarus has an additional 1.5 million prospective military personnel other than its Armed Forces. He said that these people can be deployed if martial law is declared and the country goes into “war mode.”  

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war 

On 26 February, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud announced humanitarian aid worth USD 410 million to Ukraine. Al Saud said: "We are focused on mitigating the consequences of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.” During his visit to Kyiv also signed a memorandum of understanding regarding the supply of oil products to Ukraine. He also reiterated Saudi Arabia’s support towards initiatives that would bring the war to an end and establish peace in the region. According to Ukraine’s presidential Office, in the USD 410 million aid, USD 100 will be used for humanitarian purposes and USD 300 will be used for oil product purchases.  

On 26 February, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada is providing an additional four Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine and is imposing new sanctions related to Russia. He said that the delivery of the tanks and the new sanctions would target 129 individuals and 63 entities including the Russian deputy prime ministers and other officials. Further, he said that Canada would ban the export of “certain chemical elements” used in electronics as well as ban imports, purchases, and acquisition of Russian arms and other weapons from Canada. This comes as Canada announced nearly USD 23.5 million in support to counter chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats to Ukraine on 24 February.  

On 25 February, G20 countries’ finance chiefs failed to come to a common consensus over the issue of the war in Ukraine with Russia and China refusing to sign a joint statement. India which is charing the meeting held in Bangalore released a chair summary and outcome document where it outlined the disagreements. It said: “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed that it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.” Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said: “Although there was not what we would call a communique, but only an outcome statement, we still think we've made some progress in having all the ministers on board.” Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that the G20 faces a challenge to “engage in constructive discussions” because of the Russia-Ukraine war and that it is an act that “shakes the foundations” of the global order.

References
NSDC explains why Ukrainians weren’t warned of full-scale invasion,” Ukrinform, 26 February 2023
Lubinets: Russia illegally holds 180 political prisoners, most of them Crimean Tatars,” Ukrinform, 26 February 2023
Operational information as of 06.00 on 26.02.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” YouTube, 26 February 2023
Ukrgazvydobuvannya received more than 62 tons of equipment from Sweden,” mev.gov.ua, 25 February 2023
Moscow responds to claims of ‘secret’ talks on Ukraine,” RT, 25 February 2023
Tinkoff Investments to suspend trading of euro from February 27,” Tass, 26 February 2023
FATF decision on Russia will cause problems in combating financing of terrorism — diplomat,” Tass, 25 February 2023
Switzerland confirms stance on frozen Russian assets,” RT, 26 February 2023
Wagner fighters capture Ukrainian village near Bakhmut, claims Russian mercenary leader,” South China Morning Post, 26 February 2023
Thousands join Berlin rally calling for Ukraine peace talks,” AP News, 25 February 2023
Protest in Berlin over arming Ukraine against Russia draws thousands,” Reuters, 26 February 2023
Russia halts pipeline oil to Poland says refiner PKN Orlen,” Reuters, 25 February 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 25 February 2023,” Twitter, 25 February 2023
Belarus says it has 1.5 mln potential soldiers,” Deutsche Welle, 26 February 2023
Aftab Ahmed, Shivangi Acharyaand Sarita Chaganti Singh “
Most G20 nations condemn Russia for war, China silent,” Reuters, 26 February 2023
"Canada pledges more tanks to Ukraine, imposes new Russia sanctions," Reuters, 24 February 2023
Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer “
Canada pledges more tanks to Ukraine, imposes new Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 25 February 2023 
Israa Farhan “
Saudi Arabia to Send $410 Mln Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine,” See, 26 February 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Defence companies in France see a boost in share since the Ukraine war
On 26 February, FT reported on Thales (France Defence Group) announcement on increasing its workforce by 12000 or 15 per cent in 2023. The group recruited 11,500 in 2022 which is higher compared to the previous years of 5000 and 8000. According to its Chief Executive Patrice Caine: “Thales proves there is an exciting future for our industry . . . not in low cost, low tech but in cutting-edge innovation.” The move comes after French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to increase the defence investment by a third (EUR 413 billion). Upon the Ukraine war, the share value of the defence companies peaked at 60 per cent. Previously the company was asked to deliver GM200 radars to Ukraine by the government. (“Thales steps up hiring as defence spending booms,” FT, 26 February 2023)

REGIONAL

DUP and the Tories not in favor of Rishi Sunak’s deal to reform the Brexit protocol
On 27 February FT reported on UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meeting with European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen to sign a new deal on reforming the Northern Ireland Protocol. The new deal would mean a new green lane where goods that are not entering the EU would go through minimal customs checks without animal health certification at the border. Instead, the UK will regulate the VAT, and state-aid rules and the EU will discuss the latest single market rules with Northern Ireland. In response to this, the Democratic Unionist party of Northern Ireland has demanded to remove the protocol completely before signing the power-sharing government. Whereas the Tories of the UK remain unhappy with the new deal, as it still allows the intervention of the European Court of Justice and does not give the provision for the producers in Northern Ireland to opt “UK standards” for exports. (“Rishi Sunak to announce ‘fundamental’ changes to Northern Ireland trade rules,” FT, 27 February 2023)

Call for migrant return deal and financial support by the EU member states add pressure on the EU
On 25 November, EURACTIV reported on the 15 EU member states call for  “stronger borders and migrant return deals” after the conference held in Athens on “border management.” The stance on migration has been tightened by the EU since 2015 and has been looking for ways to operate Frontex in third-party states to address the migration. If the agreement is passed, Frontex would be allowed to carry border management and employ border guards. For the same, the member states also called for additional financial support to install “border protection infrastructure.” (“EU states call for stronger borders, migrant return deals,” EURACTIV, 25 February 2023

CLIMATE

Dilemma over permitting farming exits as nitrogen emissions peak
On 26 February, FT reported on Netherlands Nature Minister, Christianne van der Wal issued a warning over achieving climate targets. He said that it was necessary to decide between favoring agriculture and infrastructure, as farming offers a cut in nitrogen emissions. Concerning the dispute with the farmers on greenhouse gas (GHG), the Minister highlighted that the Netherlands can no longer afford to build additional infrastructure without a cut of nitrogen emissions in another place. Its pledge to cutdown nitrogen emissions to half by 2030 seems far away with the agricultural sector emitting 46 per cent of GHG. In early February, the government set a target of 38 per cent for the energy and industrial sectors, and 25 per cent for transport, while leaving out agriculture. According to Van der wal, the farmers can relocate and innovate their business to cutdown the emissions, while the Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB) party feels otherwise. (“Netherlands raises pressure on farmers over nitrogen emissions,” FT, 26 February 2023)

SCIENCE

Russia’s MS-23 capsule docks into ISS
On 26 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the docking of the Russian MS-23 capsule with the International Space Station (ISS). The Soyuz MS-23 is missioned to bring back the Russian cosmonauts and US astronaut by September, it also transported 429 kgs of cargo to the ISS to help extend the astronauts mission. According to Roscosmos, the next “space walk” is expected to take place either in April or May. (“Russian Soyuz capsule docks with ISS,” Deutsche Welle, 26 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

Macron to visit Africa to recoup the deteriorating support for France
On 27 February, EURACTIV reported on French President Emmanual Macron scheduled to visit the former French colonies in Africa to revamp the growing anti-french sentiment. The move comes after France was asked to withdraw its troops from Burkina Faso, this was mainly due to the government siding with Russia’s Wagner Group to fight the Islamist Insurgents. Macron is also expected to announce an “African policy” before the visit and clarify the details of France’s military strategy in Africa. (“Macron flies to Africa to counter waning French influence,” EURACTIV, 27 February 2023)


21 February 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #442

Ukraine war: Day 362

Photo : president.gov.ua


War in Ukraine: Day 362
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 20 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a press conference with US President Joe Biden said that the rules-based international order is being decided by the events in Ukraine. He said that 2023 should be the year of victory and added that Ukraine along with the US and its partners and allies will “ ensure that the democratic world wins this historic battle.” Zelenskyy said that the two discussed the issue of weapons that can be supplied to Ukraine, especially long-range weapons. Zelenskyy also invited the US to join the implementation of the Ukrainian Peace Formula.  

On 20 February, Ukrainian’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that Ukraine is looking forward to the launch of an IMF recovery programme worth over USD 15 billion. This comes as Shmyhal met with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Kyiv. He said that the two discussed financial support for Ukraine and the IMF monitoring programme. The proposed IMF programme will be provided in two parts which will immediately provide structural reform support and financial support which aid in Ukraine’s recovery.  

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 20 February, Rosenergoatom adviser Renat Karchaa said that there is no combat taking place along the route used by IAEA officials to reach the  Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). This comes as UN Department of Safety and Security officials and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi claimed that the route was unsafe and that the condition around the ZNPP is “volatile and unpredictable.” Karchaa reiterated that Russia has guaranteed the security of the UN officials and IAEA experts along the route. He added: “There has been no fierce fighting in this area in recent days.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 20 February, US President Joe Biden visited Ukraine where he met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In a press conference with Zelenskyy, Biden said that Kyiv has “captured his heart” from his previous visits to the city when he was the Vice President. Biden highlighted the role that the US has played in rallying support for Ukraine across the world in the form of military, economic and humanitarian aid. Biden also announced USD 500 million aid package which includes HIMARS artillery ammunition, howitzers, anti-armour systems, air surveillance radars and Javelins. He also announced that the US will be introducing additional sanctions against Russia and added that it will also be providing direct budgetary support to Ukraine.     

On 20 February, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu denied that Turkey has not exported products which could be used by Russia in its defence industry. This comes as the US issued warnings that Turkish exports to Russia have been used to aid in its aggression in Ukraine. Cavusoglu said: “We asked the United States to notify (us) if there are any violations on this issue.” He also assured that Turkey will ensure that it will not violate EU and US sanctions on Russia and will take steps to prevent it too. 

On the same day, US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken announced fresh military aid to Ukraine worth USD 450 million. The aid package includes HIMARS artillery ammunition, howitzers, anti-armour systems, air surveillance radars and Javelins. Blinken also announced an additional USD 10 million in emergency assistance to the damaged Ukrainian energy infrastructure and aid in its repair efforts.  

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war 

On 20 February, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that he would be inviting Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the online G7 summit being hosted by Japan on 24 February. Kishida also announced an additional USD 5.5 billion in financial aid to Ukraine to aid in infrastructure reconstruction. 

References
Shmyhal says Ukraine hopes for launch of new $15B program with IMF,” Ukrinform, 20 February 2023
We must make sure that this year becomes the year of victory - President of Ukraine following negotiations with the U.S. President in Kyiv,” president.gov.ua, 20 February 2023
No fierce fighting along IAEA experts’ way to ZNPP — Rosenergoatom,” Tass, 20 February 2023
Turkey not exporting items for use in Russia war effort - Foreign Minister,” Reuters, 20 February 2023
Remarks by President Biden and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine in Joint Statement,” whitehouse.gov, 20 February 2023
More U.S. Security Assistance on the Way for Ukraine,” state.gov, 20 February 2023
Japan to invite Ukraine president to G-7 online summit Feb. 24: PM,” Kyodo News, 20 February 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

TURKEY
New set of earthquake causes panic
On 21 February, Turkish Health Minister reported on the death of 294 people in the earthquake in the border between Turkey and Syria. The first quake was recorded at the magnitude of 6.4 in the district of Samandag and second one followed with 5.8 magnitude. According to one of the Syrian activist: “It was strong like the first one but did not last long... it scared people and people rushed to the streets.” In terms of the support, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised to lend help “as long as it takes.” On the same Germany’s President vowed to help Syria and Turkey. Till now Germany has sent 82 tonnes of relief and EUR 26 million as humanitarian aid to Syria. (“New earthquake hits Turkey-Syria border region,” Deutsche Welle, 21 February 2023)

REGIONAL
Teaching professional face regulatory challenges in shifting within the EU
On 20 February, EURACTIV reported on bureaucratic challenges faced by teachers in the EU. The education professionals when moved for better pay and job security within the EU faced issues in getting their domestic qualification certified. They were mandated to take additional training and condition of certified translations of their university documents to get through the selection process. According to the EU laws, all the citizens are allowed to work in other EU member states, but as per the 2005 Directive there are procedures to recognise the qualification of the professionals. The same is applicable for those in research who have to go through long process to get certified. In response, the European Commission stated that there are steps being taken to ease the regulatory process for those who look at mobility projects in the teaching profession, but such steps can take longer to come into practice. (Silvia Ellena, “Teachers face bureaucracy, extra training when relocating within EU,” EURACTIV, 20 February 2023)

ENERGY 
France, and Nordic countries top in heat pumps installation while Germany ranks low
On 20 February, EURACTIV reported on the increase in the heat pump sale in the EU. The heat pumps known as “reverse fridges” can provide heat even at a negative temperature condition. It has the capacity to run four times than a gas boiler and as per the EU’s REPowerEU plan it aimed to double the installations of the heat pumps to 10 million in next five years and by 30 million in 2030. In 2022, France, Finland followed by Norway, Sweden have recorded highest number of heat pumps bought. Of all the EU member states, Germany which is most reliant on Russian gas was not listed top in the heat pump market. According to a German heat pump maker, Germany aims to cut down pure gas boilers and heaters that are less than 65 per cent of renewable energy and will boost hybrid model of heat pumps. (“Three countries became heat pump forerunners in 2022, Germany did not,” EURACTIV, 20 February 2023)

Germany’s economy and businesses affected due to hike in energy prices
On 20 February, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Head, Marcel Fratzscher made remarks on how Ukraine war has impacted Germany’s economy. He highlighted that because of the war, energy prices have increased costing the German economy by EUR 100 billion or 2.5 per cent GDP. Fratzscher said: “The German economy has been more affected by the crisis because it was more dependent on Russian energy, has a high proportion of the energy-intensive industry.” He predicts the impact to further if the companies fail to adapt to reduced energy consumption environment, as he foresees the energy prices to be unfavourable for Germany in the upcoming decades. (“Ukraine war costs Germany's economy €100 billion,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2023)

CLIMATE
France to head into severe drought as ground water level reduces
On 20 February, Les Echos reported on continuing draught condition in France. According to Meteo France, the ground water level had reduced and there has been no rains since 21 January. It expects some precipitation in the coming week, but only heavy rains is considered beneficial to increase the groundwater which then can support the rivers. The Meteo France expects the February to end with a rainfall shortage of 50 per cent, which is still uncertain since there can be dry winters similar to 2016 and 2018 scenarios. In 2018, there were rains during winter but was followed by draught in summer, therefore, the temperature have been the decider for disasters. In response to this the government plans to hold a meeting on 23 February followed by a few in March and April to look into the hydrographic scenario of France and establish a plan to save water. (Anne Feitz, “Climate: France faces an unprecedented winter drought,” Les Echos, 20 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
French troops exit from Burkina Faso
On 19 February, the Burkinabe armed forces announced the end of France’s military operations. Previously in January, Burkina Faso had asked France to pull out its troops after ending the military accord. It stated that it would defend against the insurgents on its own. The exit of France marks a new turning point as the clash between Burkina Faso and the Islamist groups is expected to continue to displace million in the south of Sahara. This move comes after increased protests in Burkina Faso over French Military presence and it also means deterioration in the relations. (“Burkina Faso marks official end of French military operations on its soil,” EURACTIV, 20 February 2023)


20 February 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #441

Ukraine war: Day 360 & 361

Photo : securityconference.org


War in Ukraine: Day 360 & 361
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 18 February, Ukraine’s spokesperson Andriy Yermak reported on Russia using “tactical aircraft” to attack the missiles from the occupied areas. He said that attacks continue across Ukraine excluding Kharkiv, Poltava and Odesa.

On 18 February, Ukrinform reported on CIA Director Bill Burns comments on how US intelligence sharing with NATO members has been useful in supporting Ukraine. He said that the intelligence service was taking all efforts to work with NATO allies, and Europe for clarity and carry out systematic information sharing.

On 18 February, Ukrinform reported on US Secretary of the State Antony Blinken’s conversation with Elon Musk on making use of Starlink satellite capacity to support Ukraine. Although Musk denied disclosing the details of the conversation, earlier SpaceX had restricted Ukraine from using its internet to “operate drones.” According to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister there has been no issue in operation of Starlink terminal in Ukraine. He added that they have been critical for Ukrainians.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 February, The Guardian reported on Russian Defence Ministry confirmation of replacing of Col Gen Alexandr Lapin with Lt Gen Andrey Mordvichev to head the central military district.

On 19 February, RT reported on a survey taken amongst the Russian to check on the preferability towards “western brands.” The survey was held by NielsenIQ research company, which found that 47 per cent of Russians had shifted to domestic brands and preferred to buy local produced goods. Of the total, one-third still bought West made products and 17 per cent had switched to newer brands. The reasons behind the switch were supporting domestic producers, unavailability of foreign products and a 10 per cent switched over quality compromise. According to Putin, the exit of Western brands has provided opportunity for domestic manufactures resulting in growth.

On 19 February, RT reported on Hungary Prime Minister Victor Orban comments on economic effect on Hungary due to the war. According to Orban, the war had costed EUR 10 billion. He blamed the anti-Russia measures taken by the EU had resulted in high energy prices, and increasing cost. Orban said: “..were supposed to hit Russia, but hit Europe.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 18 February, in the Munich Security Conference, the French President Emmanuel Macron stressed on increasing the “military support” to Ukraine and highlighted that peace could not be achieved if Russia goes undefeated. The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak asked for “lasting peace” along with creation of a new NATO charter for Ukraine. This is to help it defend in future and demanded the international to “double down” their military aid. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen said that EU plans to improve its defence industry and speed its ammunition production. On the same lines, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and Estonia’s Prime Minister called on increasing the spending to strengthen Europe’s security structures.

Apart from this in the conference, Orban stated that Hungary would continue to have economic relations with Russia and said that it does not see Russia as a security threat. Hungary which is dependent on Russia over oil, gas and nuclear fuel has been the storm in the EU’s decision making process.

On 19 February, in an interview to CNN, US Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield drew a caution line on China to not provide any “lethal support” to Russia. She said that the US continues to have diplomatic talks with China to ensure the red lines are not crossed. On the question over what would be the response of the US in case China lends support to Russia, she said: “We’re not going to advance and announce what we’re planning to do. But we made clear to the Chinese that there will be consequences should they make that unfortunate decision.” On the same, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken, warned China of consequences if any material support is given to Russia. The warning comes as the US is concerned of possible supply.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war 

On 18 February, RT reported on China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi comments in the Munich Security Conference. According to Yi, China intends to resort the Ukraine conflict through peaceful means and warned those who support continued fighting. He said: “We will put forth China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.” In terms of the war, he re-iterated China’s respect towards “territorial integrity and sovereignty” and condemned the attacks near nuclear plants. He said that China is in a good position to act as a mediator to vouch for peace.

References
Russia uses tactical aircraft to fire missiles – Yermak,” Ukrinform, 18 February 2023
CIA director says intelligence sharing with NATO allies ‘essential cement’ in coalition to support Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 18 February 2023
U.S. authorities discuss with Musk use of Starlink in Ukraine – Blinken,” Ukrinform, 18 February 2023
Half of Russians no longer need Western brands – survey,” RT, 19 February 2023
Hungary reveals cost of anti-Russia sanctions,” RT, 19 February 2023
Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield’s Interview with Pamela Brown on CNN’s State of the Union,” usun.usmission.gov, 19 February 2023
MSC 2023 closes with call for more German defense spending,” Deutsche Welle, 19 February 2023
Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 360 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 18 February 2023
China to present Ukraine peace proposal,” RT, 18 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

MOLDOVA
Anti-government protest held in Chisinau 
On 19 February, thousands of people took to the streets of Chisinau to protest against the ruling pro-western government and Moldovoan President Maia Sandu. The protest was attended by deputies from the opposition and people linked to the Shor Party, a Russian-friendly party. The protestors called for Sandu’s resignation and urged the government to pay for Moldovans rising utility bills for the winter. This comes as Prime Minister Dorin Recean was sworn in as the new leader of the government and amid accusations against Russia for allegedly trying to “destabilize” Moldova. (“Protesters Rally In Chisinau Against Moldova's Pro-Western Government,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 19 February 2023)

IRELAND
Thousands take to the streets in an anti-racism march 
On 18 February, thousands of people marched in Dublin in support of diversity and migration. The “Ireland for All” march was attended by 50,000 people and was supported by political parties, United Against Racism, MASI, the National Women's Council of Ireland, and TENI. Former MP and Civil rights leader Bernadette McAlliskey attended the protest and said that the way Ireland is organized is the problem not the number of refugees. This comes as anti-refugee and asylum seekers held protests across Ireland. (“Thousands take part in anti-racism march in Dublin,” BBC, 18 February 2023; Colman O'Sullivan “Tens of thousands attend anti-racism march in Dublin,” RTÉ, 18 February 2023)

RUSSIA

Putin address in the African Union summit reflect scope for closer ties
On 18 February, RT reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin address in the African Union (AU) summit. In his address, Putin highlighted his intent to increase the cooperation and appreciated the Union’s efforts in resolving local conflicts, and ensuring stability in the region. He said: “For Russia, African states have always been and remain important and reliable partners. We are united by the desire to build a just and multipolar world order.” Putin said that the forum helps in increasing the engagement at bilateral and multilateral. Since the Ukraine war, the cooperation has been close than before and Africa has continued to resist the Western sanctions. (“Putin speaks on partnership with Africa,” RT, 18 February 2023)

TURKEY
Search and rescue operations cease in earthquake-hit provinces
On 19 February, the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) head Yunis Sezar said that search and rescue operations were ended in many earthquake-hit provinces. Sezar said that rescue operations continue in Kahramanmaras and Hatay provinces and added: “We believe we will end the search and rescue operations by tomorrow night.” This comes as the death toll in Turkey rose to 40,642. (“Turkey earthquake rescue operations to end, government says,” Al Jazeera, 19 February 2023) 

REGIONAL
Sunak says Northern Ireland protocol deal talks still underway
On 18 February, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the Northern Ireland protocol deal with the EU is “by no means done.” Sunak said that some challenges need to be addressed and added: “There isn't a deal that has been done - there is an understanding of what needs to be done.” This comes as the UK government is said to announce the new post-Brexit agreement regarding Northern Ireland next week. The European Commission Vice President Frans Timmerman said that the talks are going “quite well” and added: “There's a willingness on both sides to find a compromise, to find a way out.” The Northern Ireland protocol is a post-Brexit trade deal which protects the free movement of goods across the Irish border. (“NI Protocol deal by no means done, says Rishi Sunak,” BBC, 18 February 2023)  

INTERNATIONAL 
European trade union personnel expelled from Tunisia 
On 18 February, Tunisian President Kais Saied ordered the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) general secretary Esther Lynch to leave the country. This comes as Lynch took part in a protest organized by the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT) on 17 February. Lynch addressed the protesters in Sfax saying: “We say to governments: hands off our trade unions, free our leaders,” and called on the Tunisian government to negotiate with the UGTT for a solution. Tunisian government accused lynch of interfering in Tunisia’s internal affairs and asked Lynch to leave the country within 24 hours. The ETUC on 19 February stated that Lynch had left Tunisia and added that this incident “is in line with the campaign of intimidation and harassment being waged against trade unions” in Tunisia. (“Tunisia expels European Trade Union chief for 'interference',” Deutsche Welle, 18 February 2023; “Tunisia orders top European trade union official expelled,” AP News, 20 February 2023)

US pledges USD 100 million in aid to earthquake-hit Turkey 
On 19 February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged USD 100 million to earthquake-hit regions of Turkey. Blinken visited Tuekry where he took a helicopter tour of Hatay one of the worst-hit provinces. This comes as recovery missions are slowing down in the affected provinces. Blinken said: “The search and rescue, unfortunately, is coming to an end. The recovery is on and then there will be a massive rebuilding operation.” The USD 100 million aid provides additional emergency refugee and migration funds and humanitarian assistance. (“Top US diplomat visits Turkey quake zone; pledges $100m in aid,” Al Jazeera, 19 February 2023)

Germany pledges an additional EUR 22 million in aid to Syrians affected by earthquakes 
On 19 February, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced an additional EUR 22 million in aid to victims of the earthquake in Syria.  Baerbock said: "They now lack even the most basic necessities for survival: a roof over their heads, clean drinking water, something to eat and medicine.” She also accused the Syrian government of setting up obstacles for aid organizations. This new aid brings Germany’s total aid to Syria to around EUR 50 million. This also comes as the UN outlined that around 8.8 million people in Syria were affected by the earthquakes. (“Germany pledges more aid for Syrian earthquake victims,” Deutsche Welle, 19 February 2023)   


18 February 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #440

Ukraine war: Day 359

Photo : Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 359
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground 
On 17 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that there is no “alternative” to Ukraine’s victory in the Russia-Ukraine war. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine’s achievements in countering Russian missile strikes and liberating areas from Russian occupation. He also claimed that there is no “alternative” to Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO. He said that Ukraine has received candidate status and is looking to start accession talks and added: “We are already integrated into the European economy in the logistics and energy areas.”

On 17 February, Zelenskyy disclosed the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany decision to provide 100 Leopard main battle tanks. In a press conference with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy said: “This is really powerful support for Ukraine.” He also urged Ukrainian partners to fast-track aid supplies to Ukrainian personnel. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 17 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the two discussed the future development of Russia-Belarus relations and interaction within the Union State. Putin highlighted that trade between Russia and Belarus increased to USD 43 billion in 2022. He also touched upon the 28 programmes launched to “strengthen” the Union State where Lukashenko added that 80 per cent of it has been completed. Putin outlined the need to create a “synergy” between the two countries to benefit both Russian and Belarusian industries.    

On 17 February, Putin claimed that demand for gas will increase as it is the most valuable and real asset for a long time. Speaking at the press conference celebrating the 30th anniversary of Gazprom, said that in the next 20 years, consumption of gas will increase by 20 per cent mainly in China and the Asia-Pacific region. Putin added that Gazprom projects which have always met national interests and goals are being planned to keep in mind global oil market trends, and expert analysis and forecasts on changes. Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said: Our consumers can be assured that there will be plenty of gas in Russia for many, many decades to come. The key to this is a huge, the world's largest resource base. Putin said that due to Western sanctions, Gazprom faces the challenge to introduce new logistics routes.

On 17 February, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia will issue a “tit-for-tat” response if the EU aims to transfer seized Russian assets to Ukraine. Zakharova alleges that EU nations have made significant investments in Russia in past years which has led to a large amount of European-owned assets in Russia and added that the amount of EU seized assets is greater than Russian assets seized by other nations. She added that Russia is looking to work with Western allies lawfully to rework any plans to seize Russian property. She referred to the US’s changed position on Venezuela and said: “So everything they say now about Russia, their accusations, threats, and blackmail… can flip-flop in a moment. Mark my words.”   

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 February, the UK Defence Inteligence claimed that Russia has suffered  175-200,000 casualties since 24 February 2022. It said that both the Russian Defence Ministry and private military contractors (PMC) have lost around 40-60,000 personnel. The report said that since September 2022 Russian casualty rate increased due to the introduction of “partial mobilization.” It also said that the ratio of the number of people killed to injured is high due to extremely basic medical care provided across the Russian armed forces. The convict recruits deployed by Wagner PMC have suffered a casualty rate of around 50 per cent. The Defence Intelligence said that the majority of Russian casualties were caused by artillery.  

On 17 February, the European Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders said that a new investigation centre will be launched to look into crimes of aggression against Ukraine committed by Russia. Reynders said that the new international centre will be based in Hague, Netherlands and will be the first step in the launch of a special tribunal. He added: “The centre will have the objective to preserve and store evidence for future trials.”  

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war 

On 17 February, Shell Global released its LNG Outlook 2023 where it stated that Europe increased its LNG imports by 60 per cent in 2022 due to the decrease in Russian gas imports. It said that Europe introduced several policies and regulations to ensure energy security and protect people from high energy costs. It added that LNG has become a key energy source for Europe which led to structural changes in the global markets. According to the report, the Global LNG trade in 2022 increased by 16 million to 396 million tonnes when compared to 2021 figures. It also said that the increased demand for LNG has led to high LNG prices which have forced many countries to switch to other forms of energy sources like coal which have a negative impact on global emissions.  

On 17 February, the IMF mission for Ukraine head Gavin Gray said that it has reached a Staff Level agreement with Ukraine under the review of the Program Monitoring with Board Involvement (PMB). Gray said that agreement is the first step in the initiation of discussions for a full-fledged IMF support programme fund. Gray added that Ukraine has met all quantitative and indicative targets due to the efforts of the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian National Bank. He added: “A fully-fledged IMF program would be supportive of the Ukrainian government’s efforts toward EU accession.” 

On 17 February, the WHO European Regional Director Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge said that WHO is working with 200 partners to provide health care services to around 13.6 million in 2023. Kluge said that they have increased its appeal to USD 240 million in 2023 out of which USD 160 million will be for Ukraine. He added that the Ukrainian people are also facing challenges to avail mental health and rehabilitation services. He urged the Ukrainian people to not let the fatigue win and reiterated the WHO’s commitment to delivering health care services to Ukraine as long as it takes. 

References
Zelensky at Munich Security Conference: Ukraine will win and beсome EU, NATO member,” Ukrinform, 17 February 2023
The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, to give Ukraine nearly 100 Leopard tanks,” Ukrinform, 17 February 2023
Moscow warns EU over seized assets,” RT, 17 February 2023
Meeting with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko,” kremlin.ru, 17 February 2023
30th anniversary of Gazprom,” kremlin.ru, 17 February 2023 
Gazprom CEO Assures Putin Russia Has Enough Gas for Decades to Come,” Sputnik, 17 February 2023 
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 17 February 2023,” Twitter, 17 February 2023
Isabel da Silva “
Centre investigating Russian war crimes in Ukraine to be set up in July,” Euronews, 17 February 2023
Shell LNG Outlook 2023,” shell.com, 17 February 2023
IMF Staff and Ukrainian Authorities Reach Staff Level Agreement on the review of Program Monitoring with Board Involvement (PMB),” imf.org, 17 February 2023
Statement - Ukraine 1 year on: this is not the time to let fatigue win,” who.int, 17 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

BULGARIA

Rosita Velkova announced the delay in joining of Eurozone
On 17 February, Finance Minister Rosita Velkova said that Bulgaria will not join the Eurozone on 01 January 2024 but would further delay it to one year on 01 January 2025. As Bulgaria faces a political crisis with the parliament dissolved. The parliamentary session was sabotaged to adopt the changes proposed to join the Eurozone. The pro-Russian and anti-European party “Vazrazhdane” was collecting referendum for the preservation of Bulgarian lev. Postponing joining will get them more time to collect signatories as also the Bulgarian society is skeptical of European currency due to high inflation. (“Bulgaria gives up its goal to join eurozone in 2024,” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)

FRANCE

EDF French Electricity Company at an all-time loss of EUR 17.9 billion
On 17 February, French electricity company EDF reported a record loss of EUR 17.9 billion in 2022 which pushed their debts to EUR 64.5 billion. France being one of the biggest nuclear-dependent countries due to maintenance need and repair led to decline in electricity output and loss. The repair was delayed due to COVID-19 emergencies which worsened the problem. It led France for the first time in four decades to become an importer in 2022 and along with the summer drought pushed the condition to worsen due to low water level to cool down the nuclear reactors. To revive, 43 of EDF nuclear reactors are back to full functioning. (“French power giant EDF posts record loss,” Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2023)

LATVIA

Central Statistical Bureau shows record high export and imports
On 17 February, Central Statistical Bureau revealed that Latvia has reached a record high in exports and imports in 2022. It exported around EUR 21.27 billion worth of goods and EUR 26.5 billion in imports in the financial year 2022. This comes in 29.3 per cent higher in exports and 35.8 per cent higher in imports from last year. The main commodity for Latvia was wood and products made of wood, mineral fuel, mineral oils, electrical machinery etc. The wood products were sent to mostly 22 per cent UK, 9.8 per cent to Sweden and 8 per cent to Germany.  In 2022 EU was the major consumer with 45.3 per cent of Latvian goods exported to them. While they imported from 168 countries with five major partners being Lithuania, Estonia, Germany, Poland and Russian Federation. (“Latvia's exports and imports reached record levels in 2022,” Latvian Public Broadcasting, 17 February 2023)

MOLDOVA

US-sanctioned Moldovan Oligarch runs anti-western protest ads on Facebook
On 17 February, the Independent.co.uk reported that Facebook ran ads by the exiled Moldovan oligarch sanctioned by the US who had ties with Kremlin promoting protests against the government. The post criticized the inflation and the rising fuel price and targeting Moldova’s President Maia Sandu. This was posted by Ilan Shor an Israeli-born Moldovan oligarch the leader of the Russia-friendly Shor Party. He was convicted of USD one billion theft from a Moldovan bank and bribery, currently under exile in Israel. The ads show the security lapse Russia and its allies used to benefit from to spread propaganda and were not always immediately removed resulting in several million views. Sandu said: “Destabilization attempts are a reality and for our institutions, they represent a real challenge.” (David Klepper and Stephen McGrath, “Facebook ran ads in Moldova for oligarch sanctioned by US,” Independent.co.uk, 17 February 2023)  

RUSSIA

VCIOM Poll shows 79.1 per cent approval for Putin
On 17 February, the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) survey showed that 79.1 per cent of 76 per cent of Russians approved of president Putin’s political and professional performance. The telephone survey was conducted from 6-12 February with 1,600 Russians. According to the survey, 79.1 per cent of Russians trusted Putin. A similar poll was conducted from 10-12 February among 1,500 adults, where 76 per cent were happy with Putin’s professional performance. (“Polls Show Trust in President Putin Stands at Almost 80% in Russia,” Sputnik, 17 February 2023)  

REGIONAL

Charles Michel address in Munich Conference reflects EU’s multidimensional approach to global issues
On 17 February, the European Council President Chares Michel in his address at Munich security conference discussed on climate change, shifting economic paradigm, ongoing digital transformation, challenges to healthcare systems and the Ukraine war. He highlighted the need for international cooperation and mutual understanding to form new founding pacts. He stated how the war was influenced by history and stressed that countries should maintain their relationships with third tier countries outside the EU, stay close to democratic principles, human dignity and fundamental goals. He urged that a common goal need to be found where all of them work on more security, peace and stability for shared prosperity. EU has been the main sponsor of the UN system, which has been vital to fight against corruption and make sure the countries are able to prosper and attract private sector investments. He further adds the role of development banks to aid developing nations that are not able to access capital due to their loans. (“Address by President Charles Michel at the Munich Security Conference,” European Council, 17 February 2023)

AI act under debate
On 15 February, Members of the European Parliament discussed the AI act focusing on the alignment of the act to US NIST and the AI-based prohibited activities. The German constitutional court called the police use of predictive software unlawful. The AI act puts great interest in human oversight to protect itself from algorithmic errors.  The debate brought out the argument to not adopt the data adequacy decision called on by the commission that allows the transfer of EU citizens' data to the US. The high-risk categorization was severely under attack questioning the logicality of the proposed text. Another meeting is expected to happen on 27 February. (Luca Bertuzzi and Molly Killeen “Tech Brief: AI Act delayed, digital diplomacy ambitions,” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)


17 February 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #439

War in Ukraine: Day 358

Photo : Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg


War in Ukraine: Day 358
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the ground
On 16 February, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to international organisations in Vienna, Yevhenii Tsymbaliuk, in his address to OSCE meeting highlighted the infrastructural damage and the limitations faced by military in deterring missiles targeted towards infrastructure. This has caused partial damage to Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant resulting in reduced water supply for Ukrainians. He also stated how Russia has been causing delay in vessel inspection increasing the food security risk for export to Asia and Africa. Tsymbaliuk also raised concerns over Russia’s usage of seaports in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea for military goods.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 February, Russia’s Governor reported on Russia’s air defence success in countering Ukraine’s drones launched on Sevastopol in Crimea. He claimed that the Russian forces had shot down such drones, and UAV’s close to 10.

On 16 February, Russia’s government commission sanctioned the sale of IKEA factories of Sweden to two local Russian buyers. This will be bought by “Russian kitchen worktop manufacturer Slotex and lumber producer Luzales.” Although the operations will continue, will be sold by domestic stores. According to IKEA brand owner: “This process is between the authorities and applying companies. We have agreed with the potential buyers not to share any details with respect to them and the integrity of the sales process.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 16 February, Norway’s parliament agreed to provide a aid package of NOK 75 billion for Ukraine in five year’s period. Under the package, NOK 15 billion would be allocated to civilian and military aid between 2023 and 2027.

On 16 February, the Parliament of Slovakia signed a resolution against Russia for shelling on civilians, energy infra, and to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In the resolution, Russia was termed as terrorist and was condemned by Slovakia for posing nuclear threat.

On 16 February, the German training association Commander reported on the progress of the Ukrainian forces in training on Patriot air defences in Germany. Close to 70 soldiers have been training for last two weeks, he added: “Ukrainians are very motivated and often already have some experience, so everything is happening quicker than expected.”

On 16 February, Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko expressed the position of Belarus in Ukraine war. Against all the doubts on involving Belarus indirectly in war, he stressed that Belarus will join with Russia only when it is under attack. On Belarus Lukashenko added: “Always committed to the peaceful resolution of any international problems'' and that it was "doing everything to stop the bloodshed.

On 15 February, ISW observed that Russia lacks in repairing military hardware against the damages. It states that two-third of Russia’s tanks had been damaged in the war. It predicts that Ukraine still had chances to carry out counter offensive depending on the support from the West.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the war 

On 16 February, a research organisation Mediendienst Integration published its findings of study on integration of Ukrainian refugees into Germany. It found from a survey in October 2022 that off the 11,000 refugees surveyed, 72 per cent were receiving high level education, 17 per cent employed, and 37 per cent wanted to stay back in Germany.

References
Ukraine at OSCE: Russia trying to cut water supply to Ukrainians by destroying Kakhovka HPP,” Ukrinform, 16 February 2023
Ukrainian crews mastering Patriot systems extremely quickly – Germany,” Ukrinform, 16 February 2023
Russia approves sale of IKEA factories – official,” RT, 16 February 2023
Major Russian port city claims success against Ukrainian drone strikes,” RT, 16 February 2023
Parliament Again Condemns Russian Aggression in Ukraine,” tasr.sk, 16 February 2023“ОЦІНКА РОСІЙСЬКОЇ НАСТУПАЛЬНОЇ КАМПАНІЇ, 15 ЛЮТОГО 2023,” ISW, 15 February 2023
Ukraine updates: Russian strikes reported across Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh and Femy Francis

FINLAND
Finnish Minerals Group finds rare earth metals deposits found in Sokli
On 16 February, the Finnish Minerals Group announced that it has found a significant amount of rare earth metals deposits in Sokli. According to the Minerals Group, the deposit can supply “10 per cent of all rare earth metals required annually for permanent magnet production in Europe.” This was revealed in a scoping study launched by the Group in 2021 to determine the number of phosphate deposits in Sokli. The study also aimed to see if mining operations in Sokli can be “economically feasible and environmentally sustainable.” Finnish Minerals Group mining project manager Pasi Heino said: “There are a few hundred in the world that are similar geologically, but they’re much smaller. And Sokli has unusually large amounts of different metals.” The deposit also contains iron, hafnium, tantalum, manganese, zircon, copper, silver, uranium, vermiculite, and niobium. (“Significant deposit of rare earth metals discovered in Finnish Lapland,” Helsinki Times, 17 February 2023)

FRANCE
The largest energy importer after four decades
On 16 February, France's electricity network manager RTE stated that after Four decades of France being an energy exporter, it became an Importer in 2022. The shift is worrisome for the country and has major consequences for the country’s energy bill. There are several reasons affecting France to reach this level, where the Ukraine war caused France's energy prices to soar as the supplies fell from Russia. There was an unavailability of the nuclear fleet which provides for 50 to 70 per cent of electricity. As many were delayed for maintenance due to Covid and were eroded.  With that, there was over half a year of restriction on hydrogen power production due to summer drought while wind and solar power made up for it. This led to them being dependent on EU neighbours, which is happening for the first time since 1980. This might result in France’s energy bill rising to EUR115 billion. (Paul Messad, “Electricity exporter for 42 years, France became a net importer in 2022,” Euractiv, 16 February 2023)

REGIONAL
Russia deployed tactical nuclear weapons armed ships says Norwegian intelligence
On 13 February, the Norwegian intelligence released its annual report where it said that ships from the Russian Northern Fleet had been deployed in the Baltic Sea. The report said that this is the first such deployment in 30 years adding that the ships were regularly deployed in the sea during the Soviet era. It added: “The key part of the nuclear potential is on the submarines and surface ships of the Northern Fleet.” The report also stated that this deployment highlights that Russia will continue to be a nuclear threat to NATO and extension Norway. (Sravasti Dasgupta,Russia deploys ships armed with tactical nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years, says Norway,” Independent.co.uk, 16 February 2023)

Poland continues to import Russian oil says Frankfurter
On 16 February, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (F.A.Z), a German media outlet claimed that Poland continues to import Russian oil through the Druzhba oil pipeline. The report referred to the statements of European Commission Cabinet Head Björn Seibert who said that an EU member continues to import Russian oil from the northern part of the oil pipeline. The northern strand of the pipeline supplied both Germany and Poland with Russian oil, but according to the German Economics Ministry, it has not ordered any Russian oil from this pipeline since January 2023. Poland has not refuted this claim saying that the PKN Orlen oil company imports only 10 per cent of Russian oil through the pipeline. The Polish government added that due to the long-term supply contract between the two countries, Poland can only terminate the contract if sanctions are placed on the pipelines to evade penalties. (Thomas Gutschker “Poland continues to obtain oil from Russia,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 16 February 2023) 

 

European Parliament will allow Pfizer back to the premise  
On 16 February, European Parliament to allow access to Representatives of pharmaceutical company Pfizer in the parliamentary premise. This comes after Pfizer was banned from entering the parliament on 11 January because of its inability to provide an explanation for the vaccine purchase contract during the pandemic. The CEO of Pfizer refused to testify in a European court over the accusations. The committee decided to impose sanctions on the company by barring it from the premise. The committee also found European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a “Pfizergate” scandal where text messages were leaked with the CEO of Pfizer having negotiated 1.8 billion doses of vaccine. (Clara Bauer-Babef, “Pfizer retains access to EU Parliament despite vaccine purchase controversy,” Euractiv, 16 February 2023)

 

EU and UK Nitrogen dioxide emission cross the WHO standards
On 17 February, Euractiv reported EU and UK capital traffic-linked air pollution is over the WHO threshold. While the emission of nitrogen dioxide is decreasing it's still not under the guidelines mentioned by WHO. Nitrogen dioxide is a common emission when inhaled and can cause harmful effects on the respiratory system. It estimated that emission by the road transport sector is accountable for 37 per cent of emissions. This is a major issue as it is majorly located in Urban cities which are packed with dense populations. Over 430,000 European are annually affected by NO2 concentration and therefore the WHO enlists stricter standards for ambient air quality directive. (“Traffic-linked air pollution exceeds WHO limits across UK, EU capitals: study ” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Finland grants Afghan women and girls refugee status
On 16 February, Finland’s Immigration Service announced that it will be granting Afghan women and girls refugee status amid the worsening situation of women’s rights in Afghanistan. Finnish Asylum Unit Director Antti Lehtinen said that now gender alone will be enough to grant asylum. The Immigration Service has also amended its guidelines for processing applications submitted by Hazaras from Afghanistan to reflect the guidelines of the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA). While this announcement has widely received positive reactions, many have expressed concerns. Helsinki Times claimed that this could lead to the exploitation of women and girls and encourage illegal migration. (“Finland to grant refugee status to Afghan women and girls,” Helsinki Times, 16 February 2023)    

UK announces a new Sahel Humanitarian Fund to support vulnerable communities in the region
On 16 February, UK Development and Africa Minister Andrew Mitchell launched the new Sahel Regional Fund (SRF) to support vulnerable communities in the region suffering from food insecurity, rising violence and displacement. On a three-day visit to Niger, Mitchell said that this fund will be launched in collaboration with local and international NGOs to provide vital humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable communities across the Sahel. The SRF will also supply key life-saving aid and lasting solutions to the displaced people in the region. The GBP 33 million funds will be supplied to the region till 2026. (“UK launches new Sahel Humanitarian Fund,” gov.uk, 16 February 2023)

South Africa, Russia and China to launch Joint Naval exercise raises concern among diplomats in Africa
On 17 February, South Africa, Russia and China launched a Joint Naval exercise. The move has seen domestic criticism that the drills and naval joint exercise would endanger the relationships with Western partners. Africa has become a global interest amid the Ukraine war and increasing Chinese aggression. The general African policy is aimed at staying neutral to benefit from the ‘Diplomatic tug-of-war while its risky to hold a 10-day Mosi II exercise during one year anniversary of a Russian invasion. There are African diplomats who ignore the concerns saying that a similar exercise was held in November with France. The Defence Minister said: “South Africa, like any independent and sovereign state, has a right to conduct its foreign relations in line with its … national interests.” (“South Africa’s naval exercise with Russia, China raises Western alarm,” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)

 

UN calls for member states to provide USD one billion for Turkey's earthquake relief
On 16 February, United Nations for the relief efforts in Turkey launched an appeal for USD One billion from the member states. The death toll has now increased to 41,000 and the rescue mission is still going on. The proposal plans to provide humanitarian aid for the coming 3 months to 5.2 million people. The UN spokesperson said, “I urge the international community to step up and fully fund this critical effort in response to one of the biggest natural disasters of our times.” Earlier this week UN also urged for USD 400 million to aid Syrian survivors of the earthquake. The UN spokesperson when asked about the biased support for Turkey over Syria, responded by saying humanitarian communities had been working in Syria before the earthquake therefore the call for Turkey to put forward first. (“Turkey earthquake: UN launches $1 billion aid appeal,” Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2023)


14 February 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #436

War in Ukraine: Day 355

Photo : ISW/DW


War in Ukraine: Day 355
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground 
On 13 February, in an interview with Kyiv Post, Ukranian Internal Affairs Ministry spokesperson Marjana Reva outlined the new “Offensive Gaurd’ initiative launched by the Ministry. Under the initiative eight new assault brigades of professionals under the National Guard, the National Police and the State Border Service will be appointed. According to Reva, the new initiative is an “all-Ukrainian” recruiting initiative. The recruited personnel will include active military personnel, active policeman and volunteers. She said: “Each brigade is actually a team of people who understands what they are doing and why. This is a kind of elite, so to speak.” Reva added that the recruited personnel will have the choice to choose their brigade and will be selected after one passes through all the steps of the application process. Additionally, she said that the initiative will last until 11 April but due to the increasing influx of applications, there can be more brigades formed and continue the recruitment process. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 February, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that production of Russian gas had decreased by 11.66 per cent in 2022. Novak said that Russia produced 673.8 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 compared to 762.8 billion cubic meters produced in 2021. He added that exports of Russian gas had also reduced by 25.1 per cent to 184.4 billion cubic meters. Novak amounted to this decrease to the reduced supply of Russian gas to Europe and the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline leaks. He said that Russian oil exports to China had increased by 48 per cent and added that liquefied natural gas (LNG) production increased by 7.9 per cent due to growing global demand. Novak said that in 2023 Russia plans to boost the technological development of LNG equipment. He also said that Russia will not be supplying oil or oil products to countries that are party to Western price caps on Russian oil. He said: “This year, more than 80% of oil exports and 75% of oil products are expected to be supplied to friendly countries.”

On 13 February, Russia's Foreign Deputy Minister Sergey Vershinin claimed that the extension of the Black Sea grain deal is “unreasonable” without concrete results. Vershinin in an interview with RTVI said that the deal cannot be extended: “Without tangible results on the implementation of the Russia-UN memorandum.” He also criticised the lack of progress on the Russia-UN memorandum and said that the new sanction on insurance, bank payments and access to ports are hampering any progress made so far. He added: “The whole concept of the package interconnected Istanbul agreements aimed at overcoming the food crisis, is in danger of becoming meaningless.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 13 February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO will be increasing its ammunition stockpile targets due to the rapid decline of ammunition in its inventory. Stoltenberg said: "The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of ammunition," and added that the increased supply of ammunition to Ukraine has put a strain on NATO defence industries. He said that NATO would be looking to increase investment in defence production capabilities to ramp up the production of defence equipment. He added that NATO will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” Reuters reported that before the Ukraine war, many of the NATO members had not met the targets set by NATO. It added that the rapid depletion in ammunition stockpiles has highlighted the “holes” in defence supply chains and the lack of production capacity in western defence industries. NATO defence ministers are said to meet on 14 February to discuss the issue of raising the targets and Stoltenberg said that the matter of supplying Ukraine with aircraft and jets will also be discussed.       

On 13 February, Austrian Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner said that they will not be training Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 2 main battle tanks. Tanner said that this decision was taken under the framework of Austrian laws. Austria has previously denied the request to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks due to its neutral status. Austria has a single tank battalion which consists of 48 Leopard 2 tanks and currently trains Hungary and Czech Republic soldiers on the Leopard 2 tanks. Austria has politically supported Ukraine and is a party to Western sanctions on Russia but has maintained military neutrality in the conflict.   

On 13 February, Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of plotting to overthrow the Moldovan government using an “external saboteur.” Sandu said that the aim of the plot is “To overthrow the constitutional order, to change the legitimate power from Chisinau to an illegitimate one.” She said that this would derail Moldova’s ambitions to integrate into the EU and restore Russian influence in the country. Sandu highlighted Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claims that Ukraine had “intercepted” plans to create political instability in Moldova and said that Moldovan intelligence had found the same. This comes as Moldova’s Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita and her government resigned on 10 February.  

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 13 February, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said that the new restrictions on the use of Starlink satellites in Ukraine were to prevent the escalation to a potential World War 3. Additionally, Musk said: “We’re trying hard to do the right thing, where the 'right thing' is an extremely difficult moral question.” This comes as criticism emerged after SpaceX announced that it will be limiting the use of satellites in Ukraine claiming that the satellites were being used for military purposes to control drones.  

References
Daryna Kolomiiets “Ukraine’s New ‘Offensive Guard’: What It Is and How to Join,” Kyiv Post, 13 February 2023
Russia’s gas production falls by 11.7%, export — by 25.1% in 2022,” TASS, 13 February 2023
Russia does not plan to supply oil products under price cap rules — Novak,” TASS, 13 February 2023
Extension of grain deal without tangible results unreasonable, says Russian diplomat,” TASS, 13 February 2023
Russian diplomat castigates UN-brokered Istanbul grain deal’s implementation,” TASS, 13 February 2023
Ukraine updates: NATO warns of donor ammunition shortages,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2023
Sabine Siebold and John Irish “NATO expected to raise munitions stockpile targets as war depletes reserves,” Reuters, 13 February 2023
Timur Kurez and Erbil Basay “Austria not to train Ukrainians on Leopard 2 tanks,” Anadolu Agency, 13 February 2023
Stephen McGrath and Cristian Jardan “Moldovan leader outlines Russian ‘plan’ to topple government,” AP News, 13 February 2023
Nicolas Camut “Elon Musk says SpaceX restricted internet in Ukraine to prevent escalation ‘that may lead to WW3’,” Politico, 13 February 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

BULGARIA
Bulgarian politicians deny government sanctions by Global Magnitsky Act
On 12 February, the office of foreign assets control (OFAC) of the US treasury and the British government sanctioned Bulgarian politicians with Global Magnitsky Act. The Bulgarian politician opposed these sanctions or boasted about them. They said to be appalled by the statements made by the US and denied any form of colluding with Russia. Russophile movement leader Nickolay Malinov baste on being part of the list and said, “felt flatter” that the US blacklisted him. The UK plans to block financial transfers and deny entry to sanctioned individuals. In January Bulgaria was also outed for showing a lack of transparency by GRECO. (Svetoslav Todorov,“ Bulgarian Politicians Reject US/UK Sanctions, Deny Corruption,” Balkan Insight, 13 February 2023)

ALBANIA
Opposition disrupts parliamentary session demanding resignation of Edi Rama
On 13 February, Albanian opposition lawmakers disrupted parliamentary sessions to put pressure on their demand for the government’s resignation for alleged corruption, hundreds tried to push into the building amid protests. The demonstrations threw smoke bombs and fireworks but no arrest was made. The protest was organized by the Centre-right democratic party and left-wing freedom party inside the hall of Berisha. Where they started blowing whistles to drown down the sounds if anyone was trying to speak. The opposition held Socialist party Prime Minister Edi Rama for corruption and links to organized crime. (Llazar Semini “ Albanian opposition disrupts parliament as supporters rally,” ABC News, 14 February 2023)

TURKEY
UN admits failure to provide relief for Northwest Syria
On 13 February, Deutsche Welle reported that Turkey and Syrian rescue plan is coming to a culmination where the aim is to drag people out of the rubble stuck for days. The earthquake has reached a death toll of 35,000 while the UN estimates this would rise to 50,000. Criticism is expressed against the failure of providing the same support to northwest Syria, making them feel neglected, UN Relief Chief Martin Griffin said: “We have so far failed the people in north-west Syria. They rightly feel abandoned. Looking for international help that hasn’t arrived.” Syria's President Bashar Assad called for an urgent need for support in all areas in Syria, he allowed UN aid deliveries in the opposition-held area in Syria. The issues stand that the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group covering leading the opposition area refused to receive aid arriving from the government or the Kurdish authority and will only aid from turkey. (“Turkey-Syria earthquakes: Rescue phase 'coming to close',” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2023; “Turkey-Syria earthquakes: UN expects death toll above 50,000,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2023)

REGIONAL
EU off from technical recession shows winter interim forecast
On 13 February, European Commission reported that the EU economy has entered 2023 on a better stand. The Winter interim forecast shows a growth of 0.8 per cent in the EU and 0.9 per cent in the EU area, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. EU economy avoided the fourth quarter contraction projected for 2022. There has been improved diversification of supply sources and a sharp drop in consumption where gas prices have fallen below pre-war levels. But consumer business continues to face high energy costs and core inflation. The forecast depends on the assumption that Russia's aggression doesn’t escalate but continues throughout, some technical assumptions relating to exchange rates and government policies. (“Winter 2023 Economic Forecast: EU economy set to avoid recession, but headwinds persist,” European Commission,13 February 2023)

Twitter criticised for levying charge for vital API tool
On 13 February, the associated press reported about the outcry against Twitter planning to charge for vital API tool. Application Programming Interface analysis data due to its amount making it impossible to go by hand. The loss of such a tool would bring challenges for thousands of developers who use this tool for emergencies and academic and non-governmental research. During the Turkey and Syria earthquakes, thousands of software developers have been using this vital tool to sort out calls for help and aid to the necessary rescue organizations. Twitter plans to generate revenue from this vital tool which was essentially free while other platforms are making an effort to increase research access and transparency. Takeshi Kawamoto Japanese software developer created a popular earthquake alert in 2007 which uses this tool, where the bots combine the files to make it user-friendly or help the user reach a specific interest. This comes to light after musk mass-fired workers and is changing the entire structure of Twitter which has come under criticism. (Barbara Ortutay, “Twitter’s plan to charge for crucial tool prompts outcry,” Associated Press, 13 February 2023)

EU member states propose for electricity market reforms
On 13 February, A joint letter was proposed targeting EU electricity market reforms. It proposed the reforms to be focused on decarbonization and that the security of supply is safeguarded when shifting to a renewable source of energy. It listed down key principles that need to follow which include retaining the benefits of European electricity market integration, safeguarding and improving incentives to invest in the green transition, ensuring efficiency of short-term markets and optimising function of forward markets, maintaining market incentives and level playing field, strengthening protection of consumers and empowering them to participate in and the reap the benefits of the energy transition, improve resilience to external shock, every market reform needs to make the market fitter for renewable energy and ensure effective price signals for flexibility of development and ensure effective cross border trade as one important element of security of supply. (“Joint letter by DE,DK,EE,DI,LU,LV,NL on priorities for a targeted EU electricity market reform,” Twitter, 13 February 2023)


13 February 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #435

War in Ukraine: Days 353 and 354

Photo : Helmut Fohringer/ dpa / Spiegal


War in Ukraine: Days 353 and 354
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 11 February, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry Main Intelligence Directorate Spokesman Andrii Cherniak claimed that Russia does not have the resources to launch a “large-scale” attack on 24 February. Cherniak said that Russia looks to intensify its offensive and achieve success in eastern Ukraine. He added: “The Russians have already utilized more than 80 per cent of their high-precision missiles,” and said that it is “facing a shortage of high-precision weapons.” He said that Russia is looking to restore production but has not been successful.  

On 12 February, Ukraine's border guards reported a continued counteroffensive in Bakhmut where 11 Russian personnel were killed. In a statement: “In Luhansk region, our mortars destroyed several dugouts of the Russian occupying forces along with enemy manpower.”  They also reported that the guard's artillery had downed four infantry groups in Bakhmut, a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and engaged in positional counter-offensives to push the Russian forces out of the suburban areas. 

On 12 February, Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko commented on Ukraine's capacity of energy sources. Galushchenko said: “We started to diversify nuclear fuel supplies for our nuclear generation even before Russia unleashed full-scale aggression.” He said that by 24 February 2022, Ukraine was receiving half of its fuel from the US and the other half from Russia. He said that Ukraine has ceased all exports of nuclear fuel to Russia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 February, Russia's Foreign Deputy Minister Sergey Vershinin accused the EU for declining Russia-EU relations. According to Vershinin, Russia-EU relations is at the lowest: “It is bad in terms of world international relations and international stability.” He claimed that the lack of political dialogue between the EU and Russia on the EU side for many years was the reason for the declining relationship.  

On 12 February, Russia's Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko said that Russia does not “believe” in the successful outcomes of any peace talks with Ukraine. Botsan-Kharchenko said: “Because of what has happened, because of the lies about the Minsk agreements, about NATO’s expansion.”

On 12 February, the Russia's cabinet submitted a proposal to the State Duma that “limits the discounts for the Urals oil blend on the international market.” This will also be used by the government when leaving taxes on oil producers. Currently, Russia uses oil price estimates by Argus for levying taxes. The bill proposes to levy an oil extraction tax on Urals oil sold at a price with a discount compared to a barrel of Brent oil blend. This bill was introduced to set up independent indigenous oil-price estimation companies. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 11 February, SPIEGEL, a German news outlet reported that the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) will begin Leopard 2 main battle tanks training Ukrainian personnel next week. It said that the training will take place at the Munster military training ground in Germany. The training period will last from six to eight weeks and will only cover the basics due to the short period. The Ukrainian soldiers will be trained to operate the weapons system of the tanks and how they work alongside the Marder infantry fighting vehicle. The trained personnel and the tanks will reportedly be deployed at the end of March at the frontlines of the conflict.  

On 12 February, the UK Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia has suffered the highest amount of casualties in the last two weeks since the beginning of the conflict. The report referred to the Ukrainian General Staff's daily statistics on Russian casualties where the mean average for the past week was 824 casualties per day. This is four times the number of casualties reported in June-July 2022. The Defence Intelligence attributed the increase in casualties to factors such as a lack of trained Russian soldiers, coordination and resources at the frontlines which can be seen in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. 

On 10 February, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) spokesman Fabian Maienfisch said that it had rejected the request made by Spain for the re-export of anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. The Spanish authorities had filed a request on 16 January 2023 for the re-export of two 35-millimetre anti-aircraft guns of Swiss origin to Ukraine. Maienfisch said: “With reference to the principle of equal treatment under the law of neutrality and... the War Material Act, the requests were answered negatively by Switzerland.” Switzerland has previously rejected two other requests to transfer Swiss-origin military equipment to Ukraine.    

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 11 February, the Associated Press reported that a proposed resolution titled “Principles underlying a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine '' has been circulated in the UNGA. The draft resolution underlines the need for peace and looks to ensure Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.” The draft is broader and less detailed when compared to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyys 10-point-peace plan. The report said that the draft proposal was circulated to all the UNGA members except Russia and Belarus. The draft proposal reiterates an immediate, unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian troops, and urges member states to consider any territory annexed by force as illegal. The proposal also pushes for a “complete exchange” of prisoners of war (POWs), treatment of all POWs, internees and detainees as per the Geneva convention and the release of all the people detained. Additionally, it also calls for the return of all civilians and internees transferred and deported. The draft also calls for international solidarity to address the global impact of the war on various sectors and condemn the human rights abuses and humanitarian consequences of the war in Ukraine. The UNGA is said to meet on 22 February for an emergency session.     

References
Invaders trying to find weak spots in Ukrainian defenses - intelligence,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2023
Bakhmut update: Border guards counterattack, eliminating 11 Russian invaders, downing UAV,” Ukrinform, 12 February 2023 
Ukraine “completely independent” from Russia on nuclear fuel - minister,” Ukrinform, 12 February 2023
Russia-EU relations at lowest ebb, with Brussels being driving force — diplomat,” TASS, 11 February 2023
Russia doesn’t believe in success of peace talks with Kiev — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 12 February 2023
Russian cabinet proposes bill to set Urals oil price for tax purposes,” TASS, 12 February 2023
Matthias Gebauer “
Bundeswehr begins training Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 2,” SPIEGEL, 11 February 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 12 February 2023,” Twitter, 12 February 2023
Switzerland blocks transfer of arms from Spain to Ukraine,” The Local.ch, 11 February 2023
Edith M.Lederer “
UN draft resolution: Any peace must keep Ukraine intact,” AP News, 11 February 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

TURKEY
Turkey to hold contractors responsible for their negligence
On 12 February, Politico reported that over the weekend the Turkey government arrested contractors over their neglect and flaw in construction. Vice President Fuat Oktay announced that the government traced down 131 individuals, and 114 were taken in which lead to the death of thousands of people. The Justice Ministry ordered to set up of “Earthquake Crimes Investigation Departments” and appointed prosecutors to investigate the responsible party. The opposition blamed the president for the ill-preparedness for the catastrophe and the mismanagement of funds and taxes which were given after the 1999 major earthquake to make buildings more earthquake-proof. German and Austrian teams have cited security issues caused by clashes between people looting and gunfire incidents. The Greek Foreign minister paid a visit to Turkey to mend the relationship after the earthquake. The current death toll in Turkey is 33,000 with many still under the rubble and the rescue mission still on. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Turkey cracks down on contractors of quake-struck buildings,” Politico, 12 February 2023)

FRANCE
Pension reform protest, Union states to ramp the strike
On 11 February, in France, thousands of protesters took to the street to protest against the Pension reform plans. The protest saw another huge gathering while there was no call for a nationwide strike, the air traffic controllers in Paris walked out resulting in the cancellation of flights. Emmanuel Macron aims to increase the age of retirement from 62- 64, CGT union stated that 500,000 people protested led by France's eight main unions. The union stated that it would bring France to a standstill on March 7 if the government were deaf to popular mobilization. Macron requested the union to be responsible and not block the life of the rest of the country. (“Hundreds of thousands protest across France against pension reform, unions vow to ramp up strikes,” France 24, 11 February 2023)

SPAIN
Spain, thousands march against the regional management of healthcare services
On 12 February, in Madrid thousand of Spain, citizens marched to protest against the regional government's management of health care services. Over 250,000 rallied to the city Centre shouting “The right to health is a human right. Defend the health service.” Left-wing parties and concerned citizens also backed the health worker union that joined the protest. The regional chief blames the left political interest for motivating such protests ahead of elections. The healthcare worker stated that the regional chief Diaz Ayuso administration spent the least amount on primary healthcare. (“Hundreds of thousands march in Spain to demand better primary healthcare,” Euronews, 12 February 2023)

CYPRUS
Cyprus appoints new president Nikos Christodoulides
On 12 February, Nikos Christodoulides was elected president of Cyprus, he was the former foreign minister who won 51 per cent defeating a fellow diplomat. Nikos defected from DISY conservative ruling party and ran independently. The voter turnout was 72.4 per cent, the new government would be under pressure to work on corruption issues, energy bills, the economy, and labour disputes. While the main agenda would be the divided island which has internally split the nation to be part of the new leader's goal. (“Cyprus ex-foreign minister Christodoulides elected youngest president,” France 24, 12 February 2023) 

FINLAND
Finland wants to be part of NATO by July and wants the US to urge Turkey
On 11 February, the associated press reported that the Finnish president wants Finland and Sweden to be part of NATO by July and indirectly hinted at the US to put pressure on Turkey. If the issue is dragged then it would be hard to join the alliance. NATO needs unanimous approval from all existing members to admit a new one. Hungary and Tukey are the nations that haven’t approved this membership, while Hungary plans to pledge by February. Turkey has shown no interest in ratifying the accession. This hold-off come in sight of the Quran burning that happened in Sweden and the series of demonstration by activist outside the Turkish embassy. (“Finnish president wants Finland, Sweden in NATO by summer,” Associated Press, 11 February 2023)

POLAND
Polish president passes crucial bill to tribunal inspection, can cause loss of funds from EU
On 10 February, Poland President Duda refused to sign the legislation for a crucial bill with judicial reforms and put it back to a constitutional tribunal where they would find out if it abode by the Polish constitution body. This can be crucial for the Polish economy as this bill would have gotten billions from EU recovery funds, it is an agreement between Brussels and Warsaw that need to release EUR 36 billion in grants and loans. Pis party was looking for the fund before the coming elections. The tribunal is also very much influenced by the PiS. The European Commission will not release the fund until the bill is a law which would give Brussels some independence from the Polish government and end sanctions against judges who raised questions against fellow judges. (“Duda throws Poland’s EU cash plans into turmoil, ” Politico, 13 February 2023)

RUSSIA
Russian cargo ship leaks coolant, no dangerous threat to the crew
On 12 February, the associated press reported that a supply ship docked at the International Space station has leaked coolant the hatch between the station and Progress MS-21 is locked therefore it poses no dangerous threats to the crew ROSCOSMOS. This comes after the announcement was made about the Russian cargo stationing. The crew were supposed to use the Soyuz capsule to come back in March but would be replaced with a new capsule on 20 February in case of emergency.  (Vladimir Isachenkov “Russian spacecraft leaks coolant, station crew reported safe,” Associated Press, 12 February 2023)

PARIS
Protests in Paris to list IRGC as a terrorist organization
On 12 February, Iran's ruling authorities rallied in Paris to list Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Iran has been engaged in a violent crackdown on protestors by executing and detaining them. The ties were shunned between the EU and Tehran when they supplied drones to Russia to aid the war against Ukraine. This erupted last September when a young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini died after being detained by the morality police. While some are pushing for IRGC to be listed, many may see this as a way to break ties with Iran affecting any negotiations on nuclear talks. (Michaela Cabrera and Noemie Olive “Opposition groups rally in France demanding EU list Iran's Guards as terrorist group,” Reuters, 12 February 2023) 


11 February 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #434

War in Ukraine: Day 352

Photo : The Guardian Graph/ISW


War in Ukraine: Day 352
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the ground
On 10 February, Head of Kyiv city military administration, Serhiy Popko upon the threat of a missile attack urged the people to take shelter. The order was given after Tu-95 strategic bombers were launched by Russia. Ukraine’s spokesperson added: “Enemy aviation is in the air and ships which can carry Kaliber missiles are in the sea. The enemy launched the missiles. The air alert will be long.” The same was confirmed by The Kyiv Independent, which reported explosions in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

On 10 February, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tweeted on the meet with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda. The discussion focused on security issues, joint action, and military support. On the same day, Zaporizhzhia was observed to have hit by 17 missiles, majorly on the energy infrastructure cutting off the power supplies.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 February, TASS reported on Ukraine troops using of US manufactured rocket systems to attacks. It highlighted: “..require coordinates provided or confirmed by the United States and its allies for the vast majority of strikes using its advanced US-provided rocket systems.” Therefore, the accuracy to assist in targeting and also to ensure the protection of limited ammunitions has been the strategy of the US according to Ukraine’s spokesperson.

On 10 February, TASS reported on Russia’s claims on facility damage in the Khmelnitsky region. In the reports, targeting of energy infrastructure was recorded, along with shelling in Dnepropetrovsk.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 February, Moldova’s Foreign Minister stated that Russian missile had breached its air space. It said that it would be summoning Russian Ambassador in opposition of the move. The same was confirmed by Ukraine’s armed forces Commander-in-Chief observed that the missiles had been launched from the Black Sea which crossed into Moldova and Romania before Ukraine. According to the Romanian Defence Ministry released a statement: “The closest the target trajectory got to Romania's airspace was recorded by the radar at roughly 35 kilometers northeast of the border.” There has been no response from Russia yet.

On 10 February, the US Assistant Secretary of Defense commented that of the total “main battle tanks” of Russia, half of them are likely to have been ruined or taken by Ukraine. The White-House announced US President Joe Biden schedule to visit Poland in support of Ukraine.

On 10 February, Switzerland denied Spain’s request to grant the export of “Swiss-made anti-aircraft guns” to Ukraine. One of the key rules of Swiss law maintains to restrict export of war materials to a country when it is involved in conflict.

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 10 February, the World Bank announced a restoration package for Ukraine worth USD 50 million. It is also expecting to announced an additional funding of USD 535 million. According to World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia: “Ukraine needs urgent investments to repair damaged essential transport routes.”

References
Ukraine updates: Moldova — Russian missiles crossed airspace,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2023
Ukrainian officials admit they rely on US data for precision targeting — newspaper,” TASS, 10 February 2023
Critical infrastructure facilities damaged in Ukrainian regions — authorities,” TASS, 10 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh and Femi Francis

FINLAND
Government plans to permanently eradicate homelessness by 2027
On 11 February, Nord news reported that Finland is looking to totally eradicate homelessness, and they are looking into a national action plan that would help them achieve this goal by 2027. Finland is the only country in the EU which has been successful in reducing the amount of homelessness. Housing Finance and Development Centre reported that between 2008- 2022 there has been a 54 per cent decrease in homelessness in Finland. Prime Minister Sanna Marin believes that eradicating homelessness is possible to plan with a specialized mechanism to aid the process with decentralized measures like providing them with phones, provision of removal of evection and providing them with long term support with round clock support can help with eradication. (“Homelessness can be eradicated by close cooperation by 2027: Report,” Nord News, 11 February 2023)

FRANCE
France's dependency on frozen food imports increased
On 10 February, Les Echos reported that France is highly dependent on imports of frozen vegetables from EU nations. The frozen food imports reached an all-time peak of 74 per cent benefiting Belgium, Spain, and Italy while reducing the self-sufficiency quotient of the French food market to only 40 per cent. French exports have reduced to half since 2010 and 14 per cent for frozen food. This is further aggravated by climate change for example, peas production has been largely affected by drought where the harvest fell by 16 per cent in 2022.  To bring back sustainability the French government have proposed that production increase by 15 per cent which would mean the consumption of self-sustaining needs to be increased as well. Investments need to be made in modernized industries to make a move towards decarbonization. (Dominique Chapuis “Vegetables: France's dependence on imports is getting worse,” Les Echos, 10 February 2023)

ICELAND
The fishing industry agrees to sign the new agreement for the fishing industry.
On 10 February, the fishing industry agreed to sign a collective agreement with Fisheries in Iceland. The new agreement highlighted the wage hike to be in line with General and Special workers in Iceland. A rise in pension and increased measures would be taken for the safety and health of the workers. The final vote on the agreement would be done late in the coming week, for now, the public has shown general satisfaction with the agreement. The seafood industry is a vital industry for the Icelandic countries. They employ around 7,500 people which is 3.9 per cent of the workforce and contributes to eight per cent to the GDP. While the indirect contribution can account for 43 per cent of marine products. ( Jelena Ćirić “Fishing Industry Parties Sign 10-Year Collective Agreement,” Iceland review, 10 February 2023)

MOLDOVA
Ruling government resigns amidst numerous crisis
On 10 February, Moldova’s Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița and her government resigned citing a lack of support from the public. Gavrilița 18-month-old pro-western government faced several protests led by opposition politician Ilan Shor. This comes as Moldova is facing numerous crises including increasing inflation, a rising influx of Ukrainian refugees and the energy crisis. After the Ukraine war broke out, Moldova has faced power cuts, increasing cyberattacks from Russia and has struggled to reduce its dependency on Russian gas. Gavrilița came to power in August 2021 with an agenda to fight corruption and fastrack Moldova’s accession to the EU. Moldova was given EU candidate status in 2022. Moldovan President Maia Sandu accepted the resignation and nominated Dorin Recean for the position of Prime Minister. (Alexandra Brzozowski “Moldova’s pro-EU government falls amid economic turmoil, Russian pressure,” EURACTIV, 10 February 2023; “Moldova: Pro-Western government collapses amid crises,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2023)   

POLAND
Poland suggests a compromise to strict Wind Turbine legislation
On 09 February, Deutsche Welle reported that Poland plans to find a medium for wind power development after the period of unregulated production between 2001 and 2013. There wasn’t any thought given in regulating the distance between roads and houses when it came to production, to halt this PIS party passed a law in 2016 called the “10H” rule. Where the distance between the turbines and the nearest house should be at least ten times the turbine's height. This legislation is criticized by some stating that it virtually leaves no land for the production of wind turbines, it is an issue as Poland needs lots of wind energy transmission. To reach a consensus in 2023, the amendment was proposed cutting the distance between turbines to house/nature to 500 meters, this would open up 7 per cent of land area. (Aleksandra Fedorska “Wind power in Poland: Trying to find a happy medium,” Deutsche Welle, 09 February 2023)

REGIONAL
EU launches pilot projects in Romania and Bulgaria to curb irregular migration 
On 10 February, the European Commission and EU member states leaders launched two pilot projects in Romania and Bulgaria to curb irregular migration. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the first project will “offer an integrated package of mobile and stationary infrastructure, from cars to cameras and watchtowers to electronic surveillance.” The second project will be launched with the support of Europol police and Frontex. It will focus on improving procedures at the external borders in terms of registration, fast and fair asylum repatriations and practices. These projects will be aimed at protecting EUs external borders and controlling irregular migration and will be financed by national and EU budgets. Along with the two projects the EU countries’ leaders also collectively agreed to recognize the decisions taken on deportations which will lead to faster repatriations. (Mark “EU strengthens border protection in Romania and Bulgaria,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 10 February 2023)

European Parliament agree on a common definition for low-carbon hydrogen 
On 09 February, European Parliament lawmakers adopted a definition for low-carbon hydrogen which puts it at the same level as renewable hydrogen. According to the definition low carbon-hydrogen “is derived from non-renewable sources and meets a greenhouse gas emission reduction threshold of 70 per cent.” The definition also includes nuclear power-derived hydrogen. French lawmakers viewed this as a win and will be able to push for further integration of low-carbon hydrogen into the EUs decarbonisation goals. For hydrogen to be low-carbon its production should not exceed 3.38 kilograms of CO2-equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen. France can currently produce nuclear-derived hydrogen at 2.77 kilograms of CO2-equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen. Paul Messad “EU Parliament backs pro-nuclear definition of ‘low-carbon’ hydrogen,” EURACTIV, 10 February 2023)       

INTERNATIONAL 
EIB to invest USD 40 million across South Asia and India for climate action
On 10 February, the European Investment Bank (EIB) Vice President Kris Peeters announced a USD 40 million investment to address climate action and environmental investment across South Asia and India. The fund will be invested in the GEF South Asia Growth Fund III, a venture of GEF Capital Partners. The EIB said that the aim is to increase the investment to USD 300 million with the majority of it being invested in India and around 10 per cent in South and Southeast Asia. (“EIB increases support for high impact climate action and environmental investment across India and South Asia with $40 million for new regional investment fund,” eib.org, 10 February 2023)

Two former Bulgarian ministers sanctioned under the Magnitsky act
On 10 February, the US Treasury Department sanctioned two former Bulgarian ministers under the Magnitsky act for being involved in corruption. The two former ministers sanctioned are former Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov under former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and former Energy Minister Rumen Ovcharov under former Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev. The US claimed that Goranov in his term in office supported bribes being given to government officials and helped Bulgarian oligarchs benefit from the tax revenue system. On Ovcharov, they claimed that he revived bribes and was involved in “corrupt” energy contracts with Russian companies. Additionally, the US has also sanctioned three other high-profile Bulgarians includes Nikolay Malinov, and two former heads of the Kozloduy nuclear plant. (“The US sanctions two former Bulgarian ministers under Magnitsky act,” EURACTIV, 10 February 2023)  


10 February 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #433

War in Ukraine: Day 351

Photo : AP/FT


War in Ukraine: Day 351
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 09 February, Ukroboronprom a Ukranian state defence conglomerate launched a joint project with a NATO country to produce 120mm mines. In a statement: “A contract was concluded with the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for the supply of these weapons, so the Ukrainian military will soon receive them.” It said that these mines will be produced using modern technology and added that its manufacturing facilities will be spread out including some facilities in Europe. The 120mm mine can hit infantry in a radius of 25-60 meters and is capable of damaging lightly armoured vehicles and engineering structures.  

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged the Agency for Strategic Initiatives to introduce projects which will select and support domestic brands for them to grow and become successful businesses on a federal scale. Putin highlighted that domestic brands can take advantage of the system left behind by Western companies who withdrew their businesses from Russia. He also emphasised the Agency’s involvement in the development of the unmanned aviation systems sector in Russia for its indigenous production and increasing its scope for wider use. Putin also outlined that they should implement key solutions in developing and implementing socioeconomic programmes for the development of the four newly annexed regions. 

On 09 February, Rosatom corporation CEO Alexey Likhachev met with the IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi. Likhachev outlined the steps Russia is currently taking for the creation of a security zone around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Likhachev also highlighted the measures being implemented to ensure safe social and living conditions for the ZNPP workers and their families.  Rosatom in a statement added: “In addition, current and future cooperation between Russia and the IAEA in other areas was touched upon.”

On 09 February, Russia’s Statistics Service Rosstat said that Russia’s stocks of grain and leguminous crops increased by 51.8 per cent and wheat stocks increased by 59.6 per cent in 2022. Wheat stocks in procurement and processing organisations have increased by 71.4 per cent to a total of 13.9 million tons which is 2.8 times more than the stocks in 2021. The grain stocks also increased by 47 per cent to a total of 19.4 million. In 2022, Russia harvested a total of 153.83 million tonnes of grain which includes 10.4 million tonnes of wheat. It also saw a record harvest of sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans amounting to 24.8 million.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 08 February, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said that they have introduced measures to prevent the Ukranian military from using Starlink satellite’s internet for the operation of drones. Shotwell said that Starlink was provided to Ukraine for humanitarian purposes which included the provision of internet services to families, hospitals and banks and later expanded the contract to include military communications. She added: “But our intent was never to have them use it for offensive purposes.” Shotwell did not outline the measures taken by SpaceX.

On 09 February, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said that they will be halting their prisoner recruitment programme. Prigozhin did not elaborate on why the group divided to halt the programme. This comes as the group has recently clashed with the Russian army and faced pushback from the Russian security services. Wagner group introduced the recruitment programme and increased its personnel to around 50,000 where 40,000 were convicts.    

On 09 February, Slovakia and Poland express their support to provide Ukraine with fighter jets. Slovakia's Prime Minister Eduard Heger said: “You can count on our help because you are important to us and we want you to succeed.” This was also echoed by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Both Slovakia and Polan currently have MiG-29 jets but have emphasised that NATO support is required before any deliveries can be made. Other European countries have expressed hesitation over providing Ukraine with jets. The Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte said: “You have to make absolutely sure you are not getting into an Article 5 direct confrontation between Nato and Russia.”

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war 

On 09 February, International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach called on Ukraine to cease threats of boycott over the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes in the 2024 Paris Olympics. Bach called the threats “extremely regrettable” and “premature” as the IOC has not confirmed the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes under a neutral flag. He claimed that Ukraine is “pressuring” IOC members, international federations and future Olympic hosts to support the ban and “publically influence their decision-making.” He also added that any such boycott will be against the principles and fundamentals of the Olympic movement and a violation of the Olympic charter. 

References
Ukroboronprom, NATO country launch joint production of 120mm mines.” Ukrinform, 09 February 2023
Meeting of the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives,” kremlin.ru, 09 February 2023
Russia ready to go ahead with creating security zone around ZNPP — Rosatom,” TASS, 09 February 2023
Russian Grain Stock Estimated at 31.7Mln Tons, Up 1.5 Times in 2022,” Sputnik, 09 February 2023
SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink internet for drones -company president,” Reuters, 09 February 2023
Max Seddon “
Wagner Group leader stops recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine,” Financial Times, 09 February 2023
Henry Foy, Andy Bounds, Sam Fleming and Alice Hancock “
Poland and Slovakia signal willingness to send fighter jets to Ukraine,” Financial Times, 09 February 2023
Jack Skelton “
Olympics 2024: Ukraine should drop threat of boycott - IOC,” BBC, 09 February 2023


09 February 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #432

In Brief: European Commission plans to collectively withdraw from Energy Charter Treaty

Photo : Bernd Wuestneck/AP/Euronews


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh and Femi Francis

REGIONAL 
ECJ excludes genetic modification technique from the EUs 2001 GMO directive 
On 07 February, the European Court of Justice ruled that in-vitro random mutagenesis, a type of genetic modification, will not come under the EU’s 2001 GMO directive. The Court closed a 2015 case lodged by green campaign groups which urged the court to provide clarification if methods of mutagenesis will be put under the 2001 directive. Random mutagenesis is a method of genetic modification where spontaneous genetic mutations are induced by agents in living organisms. This is done in two ways, first in-vitro where the plant cells are targeted to modify the genes and then artificially produce a whole plant. The second is in-vivo where the modification is done to the whale plant or a part of the plant. A separate 2018 EU court ruling exempted in-vivo random mutagenesis from the directive.  The Court said in its ruling that the type of gene modification has “conventionally been used in a number of in-vivo applications and has a long safety record with regard to those applications.” The ruling received praise from the EU farmer’s associations but received criticisms by the green groups who said that this will lead to “unlabelled and un-assessed GMOs in farmers’ fields and on European citizens’ plates.” This ruling comes as the European Commission is debating whether to reduce EU rules for new genetic techniques. The green groups with the support of 420,000 EU citizens and green and socialist MEP’s presented a petition to the Commission demanding that all GMOs should come under the 2001 directive. (Natasha Foote “EU court exempts gene modification technique from stricter rules,” EURACTIV, 08 February 2023; Paula Andrés “EU citizens rally against gene editing deregulation ahead of EU proposal,” EURACTIV, 08 February 2023)

France and Germany are concerned over US's green technology subsidies
On 08 February, France and Germany expressed their concerns over US Green technologies subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act. They state that the act sheltered US companies from inflation and subsidized investment in green tech would undermine EU’s competitiveness in the American market. Germany and France agreed that there needs to be some transparency so that the EU can match them is needed. They called for Trade and Technology Council to develop a common standard for green goods and create critical minerals to reduce dependence on China. Economic Minister Le Marie French said: “You cannot have any fair competition if there is not full transparency on the level of public subsidies and public tax credits that are granted to private companies." (Christian Kraemer, David Lawder, “
France, Germany protest U.S. green subsidies on Washington trip,” Reuters, 08 February 2023)

European Contraception Policy Atlas report highlights unequal access to contraceptives in Europe    
On 08 February, the European Contraception Policy Atlas released a report which highlighted the lack of access to birth control and other contraceptives across Europe. European Parliamentary Forum for sexual and reproductive rights (EPF) Executive Director Neil Datta said that the report was a survey of 46 countries where it found that only 57 per cent of women use modern contraceptives. The report outlined that within EU member countries, there are notable differences regarding access to contraceptives, counselling and online information. The report outlines that the use of contraceptives is the highest in Belgium and France and the lowest in Hungary and Poland. It also said that more than half of the surveyed countries do not cover the cost of contraceptives in the national health system. Isabel da Silva, “Access to contraception in Europe remains highly unequal, says new report,” Euronews, 08 February 2023)  

Eight EU countries demand to strengthen of reforms to the EU asylum system and curb migration
On 08 February, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Greece, Malta, and Austria leaders demanded stronger reforms to the EU asylum system and curbing “irregular migration.” The eight countries’ leaders outlined their demands to the European Commission and the European council chiefs in a letter. The letter outlined the call for the creation of a harmonised EU asylum framework to look into all key migratory routes. It also called for the introduction of tougher policies for reparation and agreements with “third countries.” This comes as EU members are said to discuss possible measures to curb irregular migration in the upcoming EU summit. EU countries have introduced strict measures to secure their external borders to prevent irregular migration through unofficial and deadly routes. Countries such as Poland, Slovenia and Hungary have erected border fences to deter refugees and migrants which has been criticised by the European Commission. The Commission has also denied providing any request for funding the construction of the fences from the EU budget but has offered to fund physical border infrastructure including surveillance equipment. Before the summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called on the EU to finance these border fences to “protect all of Europe.” (Eleonora Vasques, “Eight EU states demand tougher migration curbs ahead of summit,” EURACTIV, 07 February 2023; Gabriela Baczynska and Krisztina Than, “'Fences protect Europe', Hungary's Orban says ahead of EU migration summit,” Reuters, 07 February 2023)

Commission to partially compensate energy-intensive companies over emission costs
On 07 February, the European Commission said that it will be partially compensating energy-intensive companies over high electricity prices caused by indirect emission costs levied by the EU Emission Trading system. The total compensation of EUR 1.36 billion will come from a Greek scheme compiled to EU State aid rules. Indirect emission costs refer to the carbon prices on the generation of electricity drawn between 2021 and 2030 and were introduced to reduce carbon leakage. The final payment to the companies will be made in 2031 where the maximum amount compensated per company will be around 75 per cent of the emission costs incurred. (“State aid: Commission approves €1.36 billion Greek scheme to compensate energy-intensive companies for indirect emission costs,” ec.europa.eu, 07 February 2023) 

European Commission proposes a collective withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty 
On 07 February, Euronews reported that the European Commission proposes a collective withdrawal of all EU member countries from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT). This comes as proposals to reform the controversial ECT failed due to opposition from countries such as Spain, France, the Netherlands and Germany. These four countries along with Poland, Luxembourg, Belgium and Austria have all announced plans to unilaterally withdraw from the treaty. The Commission Spokesperson said that the withdrawal was proposed as “there is no qualified majority in the Council to adopt the modernised Treaty,” and added that the ECT in its current form does not align with the European Green Deal. The ECT was signed in 1994 where it protects investors in the energy sector from discriminatory access, nationalisation, expropriation, breaches of contract and other circumstances which have an impact on their profit expectations. The Treaty allows the companies and investors to sue governments over policy changes which hamper their revenues and business ventures. (Jorge Liboreiro, “In U-turn, Brussels recommends EU-wide exit from controversial Energy Charter Treaty,” Euronews, 07 February 2023) 


08 February 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #431

War in Ukraine: Day 349

Photo : Ministry of Defence of Russia


War in Ukraine: Day 349
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground 
On 07 February, Ukrenergo stated that scheduled blackouts would resume in the Odesa region by the weekend given that there are no fresh attacks by Russia. Ukrenergo said that the current emergency shutdowns are aiding the workers in fixing the damaged electricity grids. It said: “Seven teams from Ukrenergo and one of our colleagues from JSC DTEK Odesa Electrical Grids are working around the clock to fix the damage.”

On 07 February, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that indigenously produced weapons can be used to attack targets within Russia. Danilov said: “Regarding Russian territory, nobody prohibits us to destroy targets with weapons produced in Ukraine. Do we have such weapons? Yes, we do.” Additionally, Danilov said that Ukraine will not be another Korea. He said: “There will be no 38s or other parallels, the stories of others and scenarios imposed from the outside.” 

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 06 February, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said that the price of Urals crude oil is no longer dictated by the EU. Sechin said: “If Russian oil does not enter the European market, then there is no reference price. Reference prices will be formed where oil volumes actually go.” This comes as the majority of Russian oil is being exported to Asia with India receiving over 70 per cent of the total exports in January. He also added that any future contracts and settlements with European buyers should be dropped to regulate the oil market indicators.   

On 07 February, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian Armed Forces are succeeding in Ugledar and Artemovsk. Shoigu added that the Russian Forces had freed additional settlements in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions which include Soledar, Kleshcheevka, Podgornoye, Krasnopolye, Blagodatnoye, Lobkovoe and Nikolaevka. He claimed that the US and its allies are extending the conflict by providing Ukraine with “heavy offensive weapons.” He added: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine strike residential areas, hospitals, places of concentration of civilians, commit terrorist acts at state and social facilities.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 February, the UK Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia in the past month has been trying to restart extensive offensive operations in Ukraine. It also said that one of the goals of this new offence is to take over the rest of Ukraine-controlled territories in the Donetsk Oblast. According to the agency, Russia has only taken control of “several hundred metres of territory per week” due to the lack of ammunition and military units needed for successful assaults. With increased pressure by Russian leaders, it claims that military commanders will chart out offensives which include “undermanned and inexperienced units” to achieve the goals.       

On 07 February, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands Defence Ministries launched a joint initiative to supply Ukraine with Leopard 1 A5 battle tanks. Through the initiative, the three countries will provide Ukraine with 100 refurbished Leopard 1 A5 battle tanks from their industrial stocks. The joint initiative will also include ammunition, spare parts and training the Ukranian personnel. In a joint statement: “This initiative will contribute to substantially and sustainably strengthening the Ukrainian armed forces.” It also said that the initiative aims to complement the Leopard 2 main battle tanks being supplied to Ukraine.   

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war

On 07 February, global south countries participating in the India Energy Week urged rich countries to stop introducing roadblocks for poorer countries looking to secure energy supplies. Bangladeshi officials said Bangladesh’s energy security was hampered by Western sanctions on Russia had led to increased gas prices. Bangladesh Prime Minister’s energy advisor Bir Bikram Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury said: “There were ships floating around Western Europe carrying gas, and other countries were not able to buy because of the price.” With the increased sanctions on Russian gas, many countries including India have turned to coal to prevent electricity shortages. 

References
Odesa region may return to scheduled shutdowns on weekend - Ukrenergo,” Ukrinform, 07 February 2023 
Ukraine no Korea: NSDC secretary to Russia’s Medvedev,” Ukrinform, 07 February 2023
EU no longer dictates price for Russian oil – Rosneft CEO,” RT, 07 February 2023
The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation held a conference call with the leadership of the Armed Forces,” mil.ru, 07 February 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 February 2023,” Twitter, 07 February 2023 
Starting a new Leopard Initiative,” bmvg.de, 07 February 2023
Florence Tan and Mohi Narayan “
'Move away from hypocrisy': Global South demands energy justice,” Reuters, 08 January 2023 


07 February 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #430

In Brief: EU draft on AI regulatory framework

Photo : Canva/Euronews


IN BRIEF
By Femi Francis

GERMANY
Olaf Scholz proposes to accelerate wind turbine production
On 05 February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the plans to accelerate the construction of wind turbines in Germany. Environmentalists had criticized the German government for falling behind in the emission target goal of two per cent by 2030 as part of their climate goal. This is further added by the “Onshore Wind energy act” where every state would set aside land to present plans to the government. The states can also decide the spacing between the wind turbines and ensure to keep 1.4 per cent of land for the wind projects by 2027. (Rebecca Staudenmaier, “Germany's Scholz pledges rapid onshore wind power expansion,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2023)

SWITZERLAND
FBS new clause to ensure cash circulation
On 06 February, Euronews reported the Free Switzerland Movement (FBS) claims that cash is playing a shrinking role in economies and that electronic payments are the futures default for transactions. Therefore, a clause is proposed by the FBS that the government would have to have a sufficient quantity of banknotes in circulation. FBS has collected over 111,000 signatories which approves the proposal to go through a popular vote by the Swiss citizen. The FBS president Richard Koller said: “Getting rid of cash not only touches on issues of transparency, simplicity or security... but also carries a huge danger of totalitarian surveillance.” (“Cashless society? Not in Switzerland where people will vote on keeping banknotes and coins forever,” Euronews, 06 February 2023) 

REGIONAL  
EU drafted a regulatory framework for AI
On 06 February, the Euronews reported that EU officials have proposed rules for the regulation of Artificial intelligence (AI) and ChatGPT. The launch of ChatGPT has allowed users to enter prompts and generate material. The rise of ChatGPT has raised concerns over the misuse of the app therefore EU drafted an AI regulatory framework under which they are divided by the level of risks ranging from unacceptable risks, high risk, limited risks and minimal or no risks. EU commissioner Thierry Breton said: “People would need to be informed that they are dealing with a chatbot and not with a human being, transparency is also important with regard to the risk of bias and false information” (Luke Hurst “ChatGPT in the spotlight as the EU steps up calls for tougher regulation. Is its new AI Act enough?,” Euronews, 06 February 2023)

EU to give EUR 100 million to meet North Macedonia's financial needs
On 07 February, the EU is proposing to provide EUR 100 million as part of the Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) fund for North Macedonia. Due to the war, Macedonia’s external balance has been affected as it was highly dependent on imports for fuel and electricity from Russia. This aggravated its large external debt repayment; therefore, the assistance fund is set to aid its "fiscal sustainability and structural reforms." This would also be backed by a 24-month support programme by International Monetary Fund (IMF) for EUR 530 million. (“EU-North Macedonia: Commission proposes up to €100 million in assistance for North Macedonia,” European Commission, 06 February 2023)


EU to block educational grants to Fidesz party trust universities
On 06 February, Politico reported that the EU would block educational grants for Erasmus, exchange students and the Horizon Europe Research Scheme of 21 Universities that are managed by Fidesz related public trust. The trust being vital for Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, criticised the move. According to the EU, the Fidesz party aims to control and nurture ideas aiding to create an ecosystem for Orbán’s political ecosystem. His vision to change the education system can be seen in the wave of universities that have been privatized and the creation of public trust for the top universities. Orbán stated this action as the EU taking “Revenge” on students and threatened to take this case to the Court of Justice of the EU quoting Article 13 of EU fundamental rights “...the arts and scientific research shall be free of constraint. Academic freedom shall be respected.” (William Nattrass “Brussels hits Orbán where it really hurts — education,” Politico, 06 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
EU and India form Trade and Technology Council
On 07 February, EU and India set up Trade and Technology Council (TTC) to strengthen their strategic partnership. This was followed by the two nation heads meeting on 25 April 2022. The TTC aims to ensure security, prosperity and sustainably when it comes to development. There would be three working groups as part of TTC – Strategic technologies, digital governance and digital connectivity; Green and clean energy technologies; Trade, investment and resilient value chains. Every year ministerial meetings would be held for TTC and the first one to be held is in 2023 spring. (“EU-India: new Trade and Technology Council to lead on digital transformation, green technologies and trade,” European Commission, 06 February 2023)


06 February 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #429

Ukraine war: Day 346 & 347

Photo : Bloomberg


War in Ukraine: Day 346 & 347
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 05 February, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor published their remarks on usage of weapons supplied by the West. According to Scholz: “There is a consensus on this point. This joint approach prevents an escalation of the war.” Since Germany agreeing to provide Ukraine battle tanks, the response from Russia has been critical on controlling the west aggression. Scholz reiterated that military and humanitarian support to Ukraine has been given only upon Russia violating “European peace framework.”

On 05 February, Ukraine’s spokesperson David Arakhamia announced the replacement of Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov due to a corruption scandal. The Head of the Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov would be the new replacement.

On 05 February, Luhansk region Governor Serhiy Haidai reported on the ground situation in Bilohorivka village. He said that Ukraine forces maintains control and denied the Russian claims of capturing the area. Haidai added that, the attack in the zone had increased but have been countered by Ukraine. In response Russia news agency TASS said that Russia has killed 18 Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson area. The Ukraine military has also claimed victory against an offensive launched by Russia in Bakhmut.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 04 February, RT reported on the US transfer of the “seized Russian assets” to Ukraine. It stated that the seized assets during the first set of sanctions would be sent to Ukraine to help in reconstruction. The assets amount to USD 5.4 million belongs to a Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev.

On 04 February, RT reported on Germany’s Public Prosecutor General Peter Frank comments on Nord Stream 1 and 2 leaks. Frank stated that there has been no evidence proving Russia to have involved in damage to the pipeline in the investigation done till now. He said: “…that there had been a foreign sabotage act [in this case], has so far not been substantiated.”

On 04 February, RT reported on a Wall Street Journal post on how China’s defence industry continues to provide necessary components for Russia’s military use. According to the report, the US has been successful in cutting down such shipments to Russia through Turkey and UAE. In a report by C4ADS (US based think-tank) found that 84,000 shipments had been sent to Russia since the war began. China’s defence supply is likely to be discussed during the Secretary of State Antony Blinken visit to China.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 February, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update reported that Russia continues to make small progress to surround Bakhmut town and capture it. On the same UK’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “Giving the Ukrainians the tools they need” would be the quickest way to achieve peace.

On 04 February, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany’s hold on evidence over war crimes in Ukraine. The report includes the “mass killing in Bucha,” and attacks on Ukraine’s civil infrastructure. According to Federal Prosecutor General Peter Frank, the German prosecutors seem to have evidence in the “three-digit range” of the committed crimes which began collecting from March 2022.

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war 

On 05 February, Deutsche Welle reported on International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol statement on the impact on EU’s price cap on Russia. IEA predicted the Russian exports to have reduced by 30 per cent or USD eight billion since last January.

On 03 February, Reuters reported on Indian refiners shift from US dollars to UAE dirhams. Due to the western sanctions, Indian refiners have decided to escape the EU’s energy price cap and as an alternative the efforts towards de-dollarisation has been taken. One of India’s top performing banks, the State Bank of India is currently clearing the dirham payments and have asked the refiners who pay in dollars to “provide a breakdown” of different cost such as oil, freight, and insurance to push it as vet trade and escape price cap.

References
 “
US announces first transfer of seized Russian assets to Kiev,” RT, 04 February 2023
No evidence Russia linked to Nord Stream sabotage – German prosecutor,” RT, 04 February 2023
China helping Russia to obtain key technology – media,” RT, 04 February 2023
Exclusive: Indian refiners pay traders in dirhams for Russian oil,” Reuters, 04 February 2023
Ukraine updates: US sends seized Russian cash to aid Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023
Ukraine updates: Kyiv expected to replace defense minister,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

CYPRUS

Run-off elections to be held after presidential candidates fail to get majority
On 05 February, Deutsche Welle reported that Cyprus will be voting in the run-off elections on 12 February after candidates fail to get a 50 per cent majority in the first round of presidential elections. The first round concluded with former Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides in the lead with 32 per cent of the total votes followed by Andreas Mavroyiannis with 29.6 per cent votes. The Presidential elections are being held in the Greek Cypriot part of Cyprus. (“Cyprus: Presidential election headed to a run-off,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2023)
 
FRANCE

Economic Minister proposed for more transparency over US subsidies
On 04 February, Politico reported French Economic Minister Bruno Le Marie request for “Transparency” on green subsidies that is worth for the USD 369 billion. According to Le Marie: “…we cooperate with allies to have transparency about the amount of subsidies and tax credits that will be granted… this allows you to guarantee fair competition conditions.” In response to the US “subsidy splash,” EU proposed the Green Deal Industrial Plan to make it easy for sustainable companies to direct cash in clean-tech industries. (Camille Gijs, “Paris Berlin to call for subsidy transparency during US trip,” Politico, 04 February 2023.)

RUSSIA

ROSCOSMOS launched Proton-M and plans to launch Luch-5 relay satellites in march.
On 05 February, The Russian space agency Roscosmos announced the launch of Proton- M rocket from Kazakhstan into orbit carrying the meteorological satellite called Elektro-L. Russia also plans to launch the Luch-5 relay satellite in march. The launch being the first one since the war began, the Proton M vehicle will deliver satellite into the orbit. This is to help in exchange of information between spacecraft, other near vehicles and ground station on earth. The Lurelay currently consists of three satellites called Luch-5A, Luch-5B and Luch 5V deployed in 2011-2014.  (“Russia's Proton-M Rocket Carrying Meteorological Satellite Launched Into Orbit: RoscosmosSputnik, 05 February 2023; Russia to Launch Luch-5 Relay Satellite in March,” Sputnik, 05 February 2023)

THE UK

Nearly half a million teachers to take part in ‘Walkout Wednesday’ protests
On 01 February, about 200,000 teachers, border force workers, university staff, train drivers, and civil servants took part in a “coordinated day of industrial action” which brought various parts of the country to an effective halt. This comes as part of the “Walkout Wednesday” action against the government, where multiple unions of various sectors of the country ramped up their campaign for better and higher pay rises from the government. The recent strike, however, is the largest shutdown by workers in the last three decades and included nearly 600 military personnel being drafted into train stations and airports to “support public services.” The government said that the “level” of strike action would “make it very difficult” for the public “trying to go about their daily lives” and said that the workers would find it “challenging” because of the suspension of health services in the country. (Kate Devlin and Adam Forrest “School’s out: 200,000 teachers to strike in biggest shutdown for three decades,” The Independent.co.uk, 01 February 2023)

REGIONAL

The Council of EU, G7 and Australia agree on energy price cap against Russia’s crude oil
On 06 February, the EU council adopted to two energy price caps targeting Russia’s crude oil and diesel exports. The first price cap on petroleum products is set at USD 45 per barrel which is further reduced from the previous price cap of USD 60 per barrel. While the second price cap was set on the diesel a traded premium to crude at USD 100 per barrel. Previously those export through maritime transport and those who provided technical and financial assistance were exempted are not applicable to follow the price cap regulation. The rule will come into force from 05 February 2023. (“EU agrees on level of price caps for Russian petroleum products,” Council of European Union, 04 February 2023)

Eight people were killed due to a series of avalanches in the Alps
On 05 January, Austrian authorities reported that eight people were killed over the weekend due to the series of avalanches in the Alps. Additionally, on 04 January, Swiss authorities reported two deaths caused by the Alps located in the Graubünden canton. The avalanches were reportedly caused by heavy snowfall and high winds. Alpine regions of Western Austria especially Tyrol are under a level 4 avalanche warning. On 04 January, Tyrol experienced around 30 avalanches which led to several missing. Additionally, rescue missions have been hindered by weather conditions and poor visibility. Swiss and Austrian authorities have issued warnings to tourists, winter sports athletes and skiers urging them to avoid the slopes. (“Austria and Switzerland: Five dead in avalanches in Alps,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023; “More killed by avalanches in Austrian Alps,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2023)
 
ENERGY

Norwegian offshore wind projects to kickstart with fresh partnerships with Denmark
On 05 February, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) said that they would collaborate with NorSea and Parkwind in a partnership “dedicated” to progressing offshore wind projects in Norway. This collaboration would entail CIP and the two companies to “further” tighten their Utsira Nord tender and would allow additional knowledge of offshore maritime operations and sustainable energy project development and implementation in Norway and the rest of the world. This comes as Norway has announced a clear target of reaching net zero carbon by 2050 and has assured the establishment of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2040 and said that the first tender of 2023 would involve the Utsira Nord area which will offer a primary capacity of 1.5 gigawatts of wind power. The Norwegian government said that they would develop a “competitive” Norwegian supplier base, technology network and industry “around floating offshore wind.” (“New partnership aims to take Norwegian offshore wind to the next level,” Port News, 05 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 

France, UAE and India launch a trilateral initiative on climate cooperation
On 04 February, France, India and the UAE launched a trilateral initiative on climate cooperation where the three countries will focus on projects in the energy sector, climate change and biodiversity. The projects under the initiative will largely focus on the Indian Ocean region and the three countries look to expand cooperation in launching sustainable projects. The three countries also reiterated their commitment to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and its goals. The three also outlined their commitment to continued cooperation in combating diseases and pandemics and increasing military cooperation as well. (“France, India, UAE agree on climate cooperation,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023) 


04 February 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #428

Ukraine war: Day 345

Photo : Website of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan/Euractiv


War in Ukraine: Day 345
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 03 February, Ukraine’s Joint Forces Commander Lieutenant General Serhiy Naiev said that protection and defence key infrastructure in Northern Ukraine has been bolstered. Naiev said that this was done to prevent potential attacks by Russia. He added: “..fire control points have been set up on the likely routes of advance, as well as interaction channels among units of all Defense Forces involved.” He said that the air space is being constantly monitored and border patrols are being held regularly. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 03 February, Russian Federation Council’s First Deputy Chairman Vladimir Dzhabarov confirmed that Russia will be taking part in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly session in Austria. Dzhabarov said that the matter of Russia’s removal from the OSCE will be brought up again and added that Russia is ready for discussion. He also said: “We will not become hysterical but will be informing those present about our position clearly and firmly.” He acknowledged that the delegation is aware of the security risks and said: “We are sure that the Austrian side will spare no effort to ensure the security of this event.” 

On 03 February, Russia's Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the claims that the US had presented a peace plan where Ukraine will forfeit 20 per cent of their territory in exchange for peace. Peskov called the claims a “canard.” This comes as Neue Zurcher Zeitung, a Swiss newspaper, said that Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns had visited Russia and presented this plan to Russia on the orders of US President Joe Biden. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 February, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said that the government has permitted the export of older Leopard 1 main battle tanks to Ukraine. The government had granted an export licence to military manufacturers who currently have around 29 Leopard 1s in storage. Two of the manufacturers were ready to deliver the tanks once they are refurbished. 

On 03 February, the UK Defence Intelligence said the number of people recruited through Wagner Group’s convict recruitment programme has reduced significantly compared to the summer and autumn of 2022. It said that the Russian Federal Penal Service (FSIN) data published on 31 January 2023 showed that the national penal population was 433,000 and reported a decrease of 6000 inmates compared to November 2022. This decrease is comparatively less when compared to the decrease from September 2022 to November 2022 where it was 23,000. Additionally, the UK Defence Intelligence said in the last 10 days assaults by Wagner convicts have decreased. This can be attributed to the rising tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Wagner Group.   

On 02 February, Czech Republic's President Petr Pavel said that conventional military aid to Ukraine should have “no limits.” Pavel said that Ukraine should be supplied with all types of weapons barring nuclear arms. He said: “Ukraine cannot fight a tough opponent like this without armoured technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles, artillery and longer-range rockets, but maybe also supersonic aircraft.” Pavel also iterated his support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO and added that Ukraine’s accession to NATO was “a matter of political will.” He also said that the war will end when Russia withdraws from Ukraine, peace talks begin, reconstruction of Ukraine and investigation of war crimes. 

The Global Fallouts  
Implications of the war 

On 02 February, Daily NK reported that the North Korean government has allegedly asked its trading companies in Russia to send select personnel to eastern Ukraine to aid in reconstruction. The report references an order issued on 20 February to the trading companies in Russia which include Cholhyon Construction and Kumrung Construction which are affiliated with the North Korean defence ministry. The report claims that North Korea will be deploying soldiers or police personnel due to the ease of providing safety measures to security personnel than civilians. The Daily NK claims that the selected personnel will be sent to Eastern Ukraine from mid-Februaray to March and will help in reconstruction efforts and repair destroyed buildings and roads.

References 
In Ukraine’s north, critical infrastructure heavily guarded against subversive groups,” Ukrinform, 03  2023
Russia to take part in OSCE Parliamentary Assembly session in February — lawmaker,” Tass, 03 February 2023
Kremlin blasts ‘canard’ that US allegedly offered to cede 20% of Ukraine's territory,” Tass, 03 February
2023
Ukraine updates: Germany approves export of Leopard 1 tanks,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2023
"Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 3 February 2023,” Twitter, 03 February 2023
New Czech leader urges 'no limits' on aid to Ukraine,” France24, 02 February 2023
"N. Korea orders trading companies in Russia to select personnel to send to Ukraine,” Daily NK, 02 February 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

BELGIUM

Government plans to extend the life of nuclear reactors due to be down by 2025
On 03 February, Deutsche Welle reports Belgium's government plans to increase the life of three of its nuclear reactors needing to reduce the risks in energy supply due to the Ukraine war, initially timed to be halted by 2025. On 02 February Belgium took Tihange 2 off its power after 40 years as part of their nuclear phase-out plan. These reactors were known for safety issues and were found with cracks in vessels. In 2019 Belgium infringed the European Union Law by failing to test out the required environmental assessment. (“Belgium looks to extend lives of oldest nuclear reactors,” Deutsche Welle,03 February 2023)

BULGARIA

Galab Donev to act as Prime Minister until April snap elections
On 02 February, Bulgaria announced another snap election in April 2023 and till then the interim government chosen by President Rumen Radev headed by his Advisor Galab Donev as Prime Minister would continue. President's Continued influence has been in light of criticism by most parties for forming a presidential republic with caretaker cabinets. (“As Bulgaria Schedules Another Election, President’s Interim Govt Assumes Power,” Balkan Insight, 02 February 2023)

ITALY 

Eight asylum seekers dead while crossing from Tunisia to Italy
On 03 February, eight asylum seekers lost their life’s migrating from Tunisia to Italy. The coastguards were only able to rescue 42 people as the vessel had gone adrift. NGOs and lawmakers blamed the harsh policies by right-wing PM Giorgia Meloni prosecuting volunteer rescuers and the boats they used. It's estimated 4,963 immigrated in 2023 and 3,035 immigrated in 2022. (“Eight asylum seekers killed off Italian island of Lampedusa,” Deutsche Welle,03 February 2023)

SWITZERLAND

FOPH to address the shortage of medicines
On 03 February, The Swiss Info reports there has been a shortage of medicines. The government is being suggested to increase the mandatory reserves for drugs like Anti-epileptic and mental disorder medicines should be included. The shortage of medicines mainly affects children, especially during the flu season. Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) intends to develop a plan for proper medicine procurement. (“Faced with shortages, Switzerland plans to boost drug stocks," Swissinfo, 03 February 2023)

THE UK 

UK Athletics agency asks for sports exemption: banning transgender athletes for women’s events
On 03 February, the UK Athletics agency moved the British government to alter the law stating “sports exemption” allowing the agency to ban transgender athletes from competing in women’s events. UKA states the lack of “scientifically robust, independent research showing that all male performance advantage is eliminated following testosterone suppression." (“UK Athletics seeks trans athlete ban,” Deutsche Welle,03 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Belarus, UAE and Zimbabwe: strengthening long term relationship
On 03 February, The Belta reported Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s visit to Zimbabwe secured the foundation for cooperation between UAE and Zimbabwe. Eight bilateral agreements were signed in Harare which stated encouragement and mutual protection of investment. They also stated a joint commission for cooperation, avoiding double taxation and prevention of tax invasion and the agreement to twin the cities of Minsk and Harare. A Zimbabwean embassy is to be opened in Belarus in order to enhance cooperation. (“Long-term agreements. Results of Lukashenko's visit to UAE, Zimbabwe summarized,” Belta, 03 February 2023)
 

Kazakhstan closed its trade mission with Russia
On 03 February, Kazakhstan announces the closing of the trade mission with Russia stating “On some issues of the Ministry of Trade and Integration of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. This comes during the visit by Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin to the Eurasian economic union (EAEU). This move is estimated to be caused by the country facing difficulties after sanctions on Russia and doesn’t want to appear as a sanction breaker while showing its encouragement to solidify its relationship with the EU. (Georgi Gotev, "Kazakhstan closes trade mission in Russia during PM Mishustin’s visit,” Euractiv, 03 February 2023)


03 February 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #427

Ukraine war: Day 344

Photo : AP/Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/ Euronews


War in Ukraine: Day 344
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 02 February, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Hanna Malyar reported on continued shelling in the eastern Ukraine, especially in the hub of Lyman. The same was confirmed by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “A definite increase has been noted in the offensive operations of the occupiers on the front in the east of our country. The situation has become tougher.”

On 02 February, Zelenskyy called for talks over Ukraine membership into the EU ahead of the summit. He said: “I believe that Ukraine deserves to reach the beginning of negotiations on EU membership this year already.” On the same day, the Energy Minister reported on the restoration of the damaged power plants from the Russian shelling. This has resulted in reducing the deficit from 25 per cent to 19 per cent.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 February, in an address in the 80th anniversary of victory at the Battle of Stalingrad, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin highlighted Germany’s changed stance to supply “modern Armour” to Ukraine and said that the West should stop loading modern weapons into Ukraine.

On 02 February, RT reported on Russia’s industrial production. According to the recent data the production has been stable equal to the 2021 levels despite the sanctions of the West. The Federal Statistics Service reported reduction to be only 0.6 per cent for 2022, while industrial production is expected to increase by two per cent. In the report, electricity generation increased by 0.6 per cent, coal output was 0.4 per cent and LNG has risen by 8.1 per cent.

On 02 February, RT reported on Bulgaria government announcement to send refined oil products produced by Russia to Ukraine. Bulgaria being one of the country to be excepted from the EU to import crude oil and petrol from Russia, it is also been granted to export it to third countries. The fuel production is done in Burgas, a private firm of Russia (Lukoil) which operates with the tanker imported through the Black Sea. According to Russia, close to 500 Bulgarian companies has been selling Russian fuel without involving Ukraine.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 02 February, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen assured to counter Russia through new set of sanctions as Ukraine war nears one year. Zelenskyy added stating Europe’s sanctions had slowed Russia a bit down but has also seem to have quick adaptability to sanctions imposed. Along with the other EU representatives, in the EU-Kyiv Summit, a spokesperson highlighted the need for a progress assessment of Ukraine to gain the membership status, which is complex.
 
On 02 February, The Guardian reported on a former commander who escaped from the Wagner group seeking safety in Norway. He disclosed his experiences in seeing how Russian captured prisoners were being mis-treated and pushed to fight for the Wagner group. UK’s Shell company reported a record of USD 40 billion profits after the hike in “wholesale gas prices” due to the war, while consumer was strained to take the hit of the energy bills.


References 
Russian industrial production withstands sanctions,” RT, 02 February 2023
EU country to export diesel made from Russian oil to Ukraine,” RT, 02 February 2023
Putin issues warning to West at Stalingrad event,” RT, 02 February 2023
Von der Leyen promises 10th package of Russian sanctions in visit to Kyiv,”Euronews, 02 February 2022
Ukraine updates: Putin compares Ukraine to Stalingrad battle,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

AUSTRIA
Austria court rules four guilty to the Vienna terror attack
On 01 February, The Vienna court rules four defendants guilty of being accessories to the terror attack on the Austrian capital on 02 November 2020.  The primary convict killed four civilians and wounded 23 before he got gunned down by the police. The Gunman was a history sheeter in 2019 convicted of travelling to Syria to join IS, he was sentenced to 22 months got paroled in eight months. The attack criticized the Austrian government and intelligence service for overlooking the monitored extremists. (“Vienna: Court finds 4 guilty over role in 2020 terror attack,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2023)

THE UK

Shells record profit of USD 40 billion puts UK government in retrospect to rethink the windfall taxes
On 02 February, The Guardian reports Shell’s record profit of USD 40 billion in 2022, the largest in UK history calls for the reformation of the windfall tax. Shell also is criticized for overstating its spending on renewable energy where it only invested USD 3.5 billion in 2022. UK climate justice campaigner Elena Polisano said: “World leaders have just set up a new fund to pay for the loss and damage caused by the climate crisis. Now they should force historical mega-polluters like Shell to pay into it.” The pressure is put on British PM Rishi Sunak to rework the tax measure and hold big corporations accountable. (Alex Lawson, “Calls for bigger windfall tax after Shell makes ‘obscene’ $40bn profit,” The Guardian, 02 February 2023)

REGIONAL

EU mandates political and economic checklist to proceed with Ukraine's accession 
On 03 February, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel along with 15 other EU commissioners met in Kyiv, Ukraine for the EU-Ukraine Summit. The key topics of discussion is expected to be Ukraine’s accession process and responding to Russian attacks. For the accession request placed by Ukraine, EU’s response has not been positive as it requires political, economic stability necessities to get through the EU laws. It said that the accession can take years comparing the case of Croatia. (“EU, Ukraine hold first summit since Russian invasion,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2023)

EU parliament approves IMCO proposal for regulation in political advertising
On 02 February, The European parliament approved the internal market committee’s (IMCO) proposal on regulation of political advertising. Originally introduced in 2020 as part of commission’s democracy action plan to increase transparency and tackle foreign interference. Some key changes include enlarging the role of online repositories, foreign entities banned from financially aiding campaigns and the controversial prohibiting microtargeting based on personal data like religion, race and opinions. The proposal will now focus on commission and council negotiations dealing with legality and provisions. ( Molly Killeen, “EU Parliament adopts position on political advertising regulation,” Euractiv, 02 February 2023)

EU pressured to halt the usage of FADs upon pressure from M&S
On 02 February, The Guardian reports that Marks and Spencer (M&S) and other environmental groups advise EU Fish aggregating devices (FAD) are responsible for overfishing of yellow tuna in the Indian ocean and pressurize EU to halt their usage. FADs are informed to endanger marine life and causes serious environmental damage. On 03-05 February, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) would discuss measures to restrict the usage of FADs use. Stephen Ndegwa Kenya’s agricultural minister said: “If the stock is depleted here, the EU can go to another ocean. But the coastal states have nowhere else to go.” (Karen McVeigh, “M&S joins calls for EU to restrict harmful tuna fishing methods in Indian Ocean,” The Guardian, 02 February 2023)

Transferring of Ukraine refugees between Estonia and Finland
On 02 February, The ERR News reported that by mid-February the relocation of Ukraine refugee between Estonia-Finland will begin. To accommodate 100 refugees Finland requires that a person should not have a residence permit from another any other EU country. The main objective is to make sure smooth transferring and to clarify with the refugees about their needs and knowledge of what would be offered by Finland. (Mari Peegel, “Estonia-Finland Ukrainian refugee relocation scheme to start mid-February,” The ERR News, 01 February 2023)

ECHR fines Hungary for violation of right of refugee
On 02 February, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) imposed EUR 40,000 as penalty for Hungary for violating a refugee right. According to the court evidence a Syrian refugee including an Iraqi family had crossed into Hungary from Serbia in 2016. During the attempt the Hungarian border guards were reported to have initially thrown stones and later fired tear gas, which led to the death of one of the refugees. The ECHR gave a verdict that Hungary had failed to investigate the case and violated the “right to life” of the refugee. (“Hungary fined almost €40,000 over refugee death,” Duetsche Welle, 02 February 2023)

INTERNATIONAL

EU imports from China at a record high of 34 per cent for 2022
On 02 February, Euractiv reports that according to Chinese customs statistics there has been an increase in exports of 34 per cent from the Xinjiang province of China to EU members in 2022. A contradictory result to the mutual sanctions imposed between EU and China in 2021 over the prosecution of Uygur Muslims. The exports reached USD 1.1 billion in 2022 as Germany imported 1,750 tons of lithium-ion electric accumulators vital for green transition and electric vehicles. The dilemma the EU encounters are to be sustainable and conscious of human rights infringement or to ensure material flow for the growth of the industry. (János Allenbach-Ammann, “EU imports from Xinjiang rose by 34% in 2022 ,” Euractiv, 02 February 2023)


01 February 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #425

Ukraine war: Day 342 | In Brief: Belgium to close down second nuclear reactor Tihange 2

Photo : Deutsche Welle


War in Ukraine: Day 342
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 31 January, Kyiv Post reported that the new conscription rules for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU)  look to reduce the loopholes present and provided the reinforcements required for the AFU. The new rules highlight that an employer in sectors such as energy, arms, health and local government can exempt a worker from conscription if he is deemed to be working for a “war-critical job.” It also added that in an event of a person getting dismissed from a job in a critical sector, they will now be a potential draftee for the AFU. 

On 31 January, Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba stressed that the main issue at the Ukraine-EU summit will be Ukraine’s accession to the EU at the earliest. Additionally, Kuleba highlighted that the summit will also focus on, the implementation of Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula and post-war reconstruction. It will also look into fresh EU sanctions on the missile, drone and nuclear industries, holding Russia accountable for its crimes, and the security situation in Ukraine. The Summit will be held on 03 February in Kyiv.

On the same day, Kuleba said that Ukraine will be receiving 120 to 140 tanks consisting of Leopard 2, Challenger 2 and M1 Abrams in the first wave of supplies. Kuleba said that an international tank coalition of 12 participants has been formed to strengthen Ukraine. He added: “It is too early to name all the coalition countries and their practical contributions because some of them have yet to make formal decisions in line with their internal procedures.” 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 31 January, the Bank of Russia said that Western financial institutions had around USD 81 billion belonging to Russian investors. The Bank’s investment department head Olga Shishlyannikova said that the frozen assets will continue to negatively impact investors. The Bank added that the chances of recovering the frozen assets are “extremely low” even though they were not legally confiscated.

On 31 January, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Russia’s Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov. During the meeting Krasnov presented a report on the partial mobilization. He said that Russia faces challenge in giving body armour and uniforms to the mobilised servicemen. Close to nine thousand citizens have been sent back home due to bad health and despite the challenges Russia has succeeded in giving winter uniforms and in ensuring the safety of warehouses.
       
On 30 January, RT reported on protesters took to the streets of Nuremberg, Germany to protest against Germany’s decision to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. The protesters expressed concerns that Germany’s involvement in the conflict can lead to a massive war with Russia. The protest was peaceful with no clashes or arrests being reported by the police.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 31 January. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that Greece will not be supplying Ukraine with Leopard-2 tanks. Mitsotakis said: “We will not provide Leopard 2 tanks for the simple reason that they are absolutely necessary for our defence posture.” He added that Greece was willing to provide Ukraine will military equipment but not at the cost of its defence capabilities. Greece has previously sent military aid to Ukraine which included armoured personnel carriers.  
 
On 31 January, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman said that the UK believes that it will not be practical to send UK’s Typhoon and F-35 fighter jet. The spokesperson said that the fighter jets are sophisticated and it will take months for the Ukranian Armed personnel to learn how to fly them. This comes as the US and Germany have refused Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets. French President Emmanuel Macon said that while France is not opposed to proving the fighter jets added that it should not reduce France’s defence capabilities and increase the intensity of the war. Polish Prime Minister also said that Poland is open to sending the jets but added that any decision on this matter will be in coordination with other NATO countries.  

On 31 January, the UK Defence Intelligence said that Russia’s attacks on Pavlivka and Vuhledar have escalated to a definitive assault in the past three days. Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has been involved in this assault and has reportedly been successful in crossing the Kashlahach River frontlines. It is suspected that by this new push, Russia hopes to redirect Ukrainian forces from the Bakhmut sector. It added that while Russia will achieve local gains in the region, it will not be able to activate a significant breakthrough. Pavlivka and Vuhledar are located southwest of Donetsk city.    
 
On 31 January, the Belarus Defence Ministry said that training in regional grouping has begun in Belarus. The Ministry said that the joint training of Belarusian and Russian troops under a united command will begin later this week. It outlined that both the militaries will conduct a joint security action of the Union States taking into account previous experience of armed conflict. The Ministry added that this joint training will lead to a joint operation exercise called “Shield of the Union- 2023” which will be held in September in Russia. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 31 January, an International Olympic Committee (IOC) Spokesperson reiterated that the sanctions placed on Russian and Belarusian officials are non-negotiable. This comes as Russian Olympic Committee Head Stanislav Pozdnyakov claimed that Russian athletes should not be subjected to different rules compared to other participants in the 2024 Paris Olympics. The main contested sanction levied by the IOC is that of Russian and Belarusian athletes competing under a neutral flag. 
 
On 31 January, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report outlining the alleged use of antipersonnel landmines by Ukraine which is leading to many civilians being injured. The report said that Ukraine had used several rocket-fired antipersonnel landmines near Izium which was occupied by Russia. This comes as Ukraine is a signatory to the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty which bans the use of such mines. The report highlighted that these mines had been deployed in nine different areas and had caused around 11 civilian casualties and injured 50 civilians including five children. The HRW stated that they had verified that the mines were used by Ukranian forces through civilian interviews who highlighted that the Russian forces in Izium had helped the injured and warned the civilians of the landmine danger. The report also outlined the continued use of antipersonnel and other similar types of mines in Ukraine.   

References 
Stefan Korshak “
Ukrainian Cabinet’s New Conscription Rules: War-critical Workers May Avoid Draft,” Kyiv Post, 31 January 2023
Kuleba names key issue on Ukraine-EU Summit agenda,” Ukrinform, 31 January 2023
Armed Forces of Ukraine to get up to 140 tanks from partners in first wave,” Ukrinform, 31 January 2023
Amount of frozen Russian investments revealed,” RT, 31 January 2023
Hundreds protest against Germany’s policies on Ukraine,” RT, 31 January 2023
Working meeting with Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov,” Kremlin.ru, 31 January 2023
Ahmet Gencturk “
Greece will not provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks: Premier,” Anadolu Agency, 31 January 2023
Kathryn Armstrong & Jaroslav Lukiv “
Ukraine war: Western allies send Kyiv mixed messages on war planes,” BBC, 31 January 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 January 2023,” Twitter, 31 January 2023
Headquarters training of regional grouping of troops starts in Belarus,” tvr.by, 31 January 2023 
IOC Says Sporting Sanctions On Russia 'Not Negotiable',” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 31 January 2023
Ukraine: Banned Landmines Harm Civilians,” Human Rights Watch, 31 January 2023


IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis

BELGIUM
Government announces the closure of Tihange 2
On 31 January, Belgium announced its decision to close down its nuclear reactor Tihange 2 in four months. The reactor which is located 50 kilometers from Germany, was under constant pressure from the government to shut it down due to cracks observed in the pressure vessels, while Belgium has kept postponing the closure due to the supply of nuclear power. Belgium reliance on nuclear power has extended to half of the country’s energy requirements and now has passed the decision as move to cut down its nuclear power dependency. (“Belgium shuts down nuclear reactor on German border,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2023)

NORWAY

Loss of USD 164 billion recorded by Norway Sovereign Wealth fund
On 31 January, Deutsche Welle reported Norway's sovereign wealth fund a record loss of USD 164 billion for the year 2022, breaking the record streak. Norges Bank Investment Management owed this loss to the Ukraine war, high inflation, and the rise in interest rates. Regardless of the loss, the funds levied from the nation’s oil and gas industry were profitable as they stood at 12.43 trillion crowns. It aggregated a minus 15 per cent loss where the returns for the fund’s share in the year 2022 were outside of the energy sector. (“Norway sovereign wealth fund reports $164 billion loss,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2023)

The UK

Urged to move towards the green industry
On 31 January, the UK pushed to set out a more ambitious plan to cut back on greenhouse gases and move towards a much cleaner source of energy. It reckons that they would be left behind by North American and European trading blocs. Net zero economies are estimated around GBP 71 billion and the green incentive bill accounting for USD 369 billion. While the UK now generates 38 per cent of its renewable energy it does not want to lose out on the next wave of the green technology industry. Another competition the UK seems to be missing out on is an electric vehicle and battery making where the UK is failing to subsidize the conversion of scientific research into viable commercial ventures. (Jim Pickard, Camilla Hodgson and Harry Dempsey and Nathalie Thomas, “UK green industries fear threat from US climate incentives billFinancial Times, 31 January 2023”)

INTERNATIONAL

Russia denies inspection of military sites seen as violation by the US
On 31 January, the US warned over Russia violating the “NEW START Treaty.” A US state department spokesperson said that Russia refused to allow inspection which bars the US from implementing the important rights of the treaty. This also endangers the US-Russia nuclear arms control. Earlier the inspection was stopped due to pandemic and the committee meeting between the US and Russia was last held in October 2021. The treaty is viewed as the most significant as it is the last factor holding both in the post cold war period. It limits both the US and Russia to hold 1550 nuclear warheads and 700 ballistic missiles. The US is observed to be keen to re-negotiate the START treaty which is about to expire in 2026. (“US says Russia violating New START nuclear treaty,” Deutsche Welle, 01 February 2023)

NATO and Japan discuss strengthening of transatlantic and Indo-Pacific relations
On 31 January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo. Furthering the transatlantic and Indo-Pacific relationship they discussed the ambition on strengthening their relationship. The Secretary-General stated “No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan. As they acknowledged the rising threat from China's aggressive behaviour to North Korea's military provocations and the shared agreement against the Ukraine war as an international challenge supporting the strict sanctions Japan imposed against Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war.” (“ Secretary General in Tokyo: No NATO partner is closer or more capable than JapanNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization, 31 January 2023”)


31 January 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #424

Ukraine war: Day 341 | In Brief: Poland to increase its defence budget to four per cent

Photo : Russian Defence Ministry/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 341
By Padmashree Anandhan 

War on the ground 
On 30 January, Ukraine spokesperson Andriy Yermak reported on Poland’s decision to send F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine also aims to get F-16 or F-15 from the US, Germany’s Tornados, and Swedish Gripens. On the same day, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen met Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy where both discussed on Denmark’s support to rebuild infrastructure facilities in Mykolaiv. Apart from that they also discussed on sending 19 Caesar howitzers and talks on joining a tank coalition, anti-aircraft, and anti-ship defence.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 30 January, TASS reported on Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov criticism on West for escalating the war through supply of weapons to Ukraine. He said: “The West has been encouraging these demands, [while confirming] its readiness to provide these weapons…leading to a major escalation, with NATO countries getting increasingly involved in this conflict directly.” The response comes after the US, and Germany agreed to send Abrams battle tanks, and Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

On 30 January, the Russian Defence Ministry reported on blocking attempt of US’s “military biological programme” in Ukraine. According to the spokesperson, Russia had received information on Ukrainian projects that focused on studying African swine fever, Congo hemorrhagic fever agents and Hantaviruses in Ukraine. Upon finding the materials will now be sent to Russia’s investigation committee to take action.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 30 January, UK Defence Intelligence in its daily update estimated that Russia can be expected to conduct another round of partial mobilisation. The observation comes as it finds out lack in number of personnel to carry out the offensive in Ukraine, at the same time keeping the public discontent low.

On 30 January, Ukrinform reported on the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council consideration to stand with Ukraine and support the agricultural sector. Since the war, hike in energy prices and increased purchase prices have become problems for EU agricultural sector. Therefore, methods such as development of bio-economy, imposing EU legislation to cutdown emissions in Agriculture are being seen as possibilities by the EU.

On 30 January, BMFTV reported on the Defence Minister of France and Australia announcement on supplying thousands of 155mm shells to Ukraine to counter Russia. The delivery is expected to occur by first quarter of 2023. The move also revamps the Franco-Australian cooperation under the 2+2 format, which was paused

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 30 January, Ukrinform reported on Iran and Russia connecting of “interbank communication and transfer systems.” This is aimed to improve the trade and financial exchange amidst the western sanctions. According to Deputy Governor of Iran's Central Bank: “…about 700 Russian banks and 106 non-Russian banks from 13 different countries will be connected to this system.” The relations between Iran and Russia have  been getting closer since the Ukraine war as economic issue arise.

References 
Denmark will help rebuild Mykolaiv – Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 30 January 2023
Yermak on F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine: “positive signals” from Poland,” Ukrinform, 30 January 2023
Kremlin vows to continue military operation despite Western weapons supplies to Kiev,” TASS, 30 January 2023
Russia puts the skids on US military-biological programs in Ukraine — top brass,” TASS, 30 January 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update,” UKMOD/Twitter, 30 January 2023
EU will consider ways to support Ukraine’s agricultural sector,” Ukrinform, 30 January 2023
FRANCO-AUSTRALIAN AGREEMENT TO SUPPLY 155MM SHELLS TO UKRAINE,” bfmtv, 30 January 2023
Iran, Russia link banking systems amid Western sanctions,” Ukrinform, 30 January 2023

IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

POLAND
Mateusz announces to increase defence budget
On 30 January, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieck announced that Poland will be increasing its defence budget from 2.4 per cent to four per cent of its GDP. As a part of this increased spending, Poland will be purchasing 116 Abrams tanks worth USD 1.4 billion from the US. It will also be purchasing 180 K2 “Black Panther” from South Korea and plans to acquire over 800 units of the tank whose production begins in Poland in 2026. Poland will also be purchasing around 48 FA-50 light combat fighter jets and 600 K9 howitzers from South Korea. It also will be increasing its armed personnel from 50,000 to 250,000 in the coming years. (“Poland to ramp up defense budget to 4% of GDP,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2023)

PORTUGAL
Constitutional Court rejects law decriminalizing euthanasia
On 30 January, the Portuguese Constitutional Court rejected a law decriminalizing euthanasia outlining the vague wording. The court said that the text of the law fails to define “suffering of great intensity” which could lead to “medically assisted death.” This is the second such law to be rejected by the Court which rejected a similar law in March 2021. Portugal’s parliament has been trying to decriminalize euthanasia for three years but has faced consistent opposition from Protugals’ President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. (“Portugal's Constitutional Court rejects decriminalisation of euthanasia,” The Brussels Times, 31 January 2023)

TURKEY
Opposition plans to reduce Presidential powers if elected in the 2023 elections 
On 30 January, the Turkish six-party opposition coalition to decrease Presidential power if elected in the 2023 elections. The six-party National Alliance presented a joint 240-page, 2,300-point programme outlining Turkey’s future post the 2023 election. While the opposition has not named a Presidential candidate, it vows to remove policies introduced by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan such as the implementation of a presidential system in 2017 which abolished the office of prime minister and increased the powers of the President. The 2,300-point programme includes plans to limit the presidential term to seven years, strengthen the parliament, combat rising inflation and economic instability, strengthen ties with the US and focus on Turkey’s accession to the EU. The National Alliance or the Table of Six consists of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Good Party, Felicity Party, Democrat Party, Democracy and Progress Party, and Future Party. (“Turkey opposition vows to cut presidential powers if it wins vote,” Al Jazeera, 30 January 2023)

REGIONAL
Finland reiterates its request to join NATO with Sweden 
On 30 January, Finland’s Foreign Affairs Minister Pekka Haavisto reiterates Finland’s NATO membership bid alongside Sweden. Haavisto said: “Sweden is our closest ally in defence and foreign policy.” He added that he expects Finland and Sweden will be members of NATO before the NATO summit in July. This comes as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said: “We may respond differently to Finland if necessary,” and added that Finland should not go down the same route as Sweden. (“Haavisto: Finland has patience to wait for Nato membership — with Sweden,” yle, 30 January 2023; “Türkiye may favor Finland’s NATO bid,” Hürriyet Daily News, 30 January 2023)

Italy urges caution over the relaxation of EU state aid rules 
On 30 January, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni advised the EU to be cautious over the relaxation of EU rules on state aid for business. Meloni said: “the aim should be supporting businesses without risking to weaken the single market.” This comes as the EU looks to amend its state aid rules to prevent a decrease in investments due to the US Inflation Reduction Act. She also advocated for the setting up of an EU sovereign investment fund to help European companies. (“Italy's Meloni says caution needed on relaxing EU rules on state aid,” Reuters, 30 January 2023)       

INTERNATIONAL 
Protest erupts in Jakarta over Quran burning in Sweden and the Netherlands
On 30 January, hundreds of protestors took to the streets to protest against the Quran burning incident in Sweden and the Netherlands. The protestors marched to the Swedish embassy in Jakarta carrying white flags. They also burnt the flags of Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands as a sign of protest. The Swedish Embassy in Jakarta said: “the Islamophobic act committed by a far-right extremist in Sweden is strongly rejected by the Swedish government.” It added: This act does not in any way reflect the opinions of the Swedish government,” This comes after Danish far-right activist Ramsus Paludan burnt the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Sweden and a mosque in Denmark. (Andi Jatmiko “Indonesian Muslims protest Quran burning in Sweden,” AP News, 30 January 2023)

Germany to provide EUR 200 million to Brazil towards the protection of the Amazon rainforest
On 30 January, Germany’s Development Minister Svenja Schulze said that Germany will be proving EUR 200 million towards the protection of the Amazon rainforest. Schulze said that the aid will be provided to Brazil in the form of donations and credits. The aid will also include socio-environmental projects in the Brazillian Amazon forest regions. It will also include low-interest loans to farmers towards the reforestation of agricultural land. Schulze said that the measures will be initiated in 100 days. Out of the EUR 200 million, EUR 35 million will be donated to the Amazon fund. (“Germany pledges funds to help Brazil defend Amazon rainforest,” Reuters, 31 January 2023)

Czech President-elect holds phone call with Taiwan President
On 30 January, Czech Republic President-elect Petr Pavel held a telephone meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Pavel said: “I assured her that Taiwan and the Czech Republic share the values of freedom, democracy, and human rights. We agreed on strengthening our partnership.” Pavel becomes the first elected European head of state to hold a direct political meeting with Taiwanese officials. The Chinese diplomats in the Czech Republic reportedly tried to stop the meeting from happening. Pave’s move to have direct dialogue with Taiwan marks a shift in foreign policy from President Miloš Zeman who has advocated a pro-China stance. (Stuart Lu “New Czech president risks China’s rage with call to Taiwanese leader,” Politico, 30 January 2023)     


26 January 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #420

In Focus: Spain's anti-government protests reflect the deepening polarization | Ukraine war: Day 336

Photo : The Hindu/AFP


EM Daily Focus
Spain: Anti-government protests reflect the deepening polarization
By Padmashree Anandhan 

On 21 January, a mass protest was carried out by people in Spain demanding the step down of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. The gathering was led by “right-leaning civil society groups” with the support of the center-right Popular Party and the far-right Vox party.  The protestors held sign boards that said: “Sanchez, resign!" and “traitor,” reflecting the angst on the government as the general elections are expected to be held in May.

Protestors claimed the government’s decision to agree to the demand of Catalan secessionists in appointing a person to mediate talks between the “pro-unity and pro-independence parties” as a betrayal. In line with the protestors, the current regional parties have rejected the move and called for an independence vote.

Three issues
First, the nature of protests. Protest against the national government has been frequent in the last five years, but the demands have centered around the Catalonian community. The first set of protests called the “Madrid demonstration” was against gender violence when a Catalan court dismissed a guilty without charges. Followed by a series of Catalan protests to revive the independence movement and against the sentence of the nine separatist leaders. At present both issues are being highlighted by far-right and right-party groups to stage protests against the government. While the protest does seem political as the elections near, there is a limited amount of discontent amongst the conservative section of the public against Sanchez for not addressing the gap in the health sector, employment, and economic crisis.

Second, continuing political polarization. Single-party governments have been the norm of Spain since 1982 until the Conservative People’s Party (PP) leader Rajoy was replaced by the Socialist party leader Sanchez. Although the change was quick, the continuity of the Socialist party has not been easy. The party has suffered to gain support from the radical-left party Podemos, right of center party Ciudadanos to form a coalition government, which had never occurred since democracy was established in 1977. In the progress of cutting down the differences with the existing parties to form a coalition, a series of four elections gave way for 16 parties into the congress. This took place due to a loss of confidence amongst the public over the party’s incapacity to form a government and address the issue of budget reform, reform of the law on sexual consent, and illegal immigration. The far-right party, Vox, and the PP focused on these issues resulting in a vote gain of 15 per cent additionally in the November 2020 elections and triggering the protests. The rise of the far-right and recovery of the PP created pressure for the Socialists and Podemos to unite, but it is not enough to have a majority to pass any legislation in the parliament. This led Sanchez to get close to Esquerra Republicana (One of the Catalonia’s secessionist parties) for support in the parliament. Therefore, the two-split in Spain’s political system is expected to worsen.

Third, the challenge over Catalonia. The ousting of the conservative party leader was due to the crisis in Catalonia and the issue of the spread of the separatist movement has been the base for the split in Spain’s political scenario. In 2017, when Catalonia held an illegal referendum for independence sparked fear as they saw it as a threat to Spanish nationalism. When the Supreme court sentenced nine leaders of the separatist organization of Catalonia for using their resources to “declare an independent republic,” led to mass protests amongst the community. While Sanchez maintains a stance to have a dialogue to settle the issue between the regional leader of Catalonia, the threat to Spanish nationalism has taken the center of the far-right party’s agenda. Its focus to address illegal migration and separatism has helped gain support from the public but to gain a majority in the parliament it would need the support of the Conservatives. This has furthered with the national government stepping to replace the conservative majority judiciary to reform the sedition law, becoming the key reason behind the protests and a political deadlock for the 2023 elections.

What next?
The political chaos furthers the polarization. On one hand, while Sanchez presents the idea of dialogue to settle the Catalonian issue, it seems to aggravate the influence of the Right party which has been aiming to devour through the difference to gain power. In such a scenario, the far right would still require the support of the conservative party to form a coalition, which seems to be fluid as both play for power. While Sanchez has to an extent excelled in sustaining the coalition government, faces a more complex situation without a majority to pass legislation on reforming the sedition and judiciary laws. Whether the winner of the 2023 elections is center left or center right, the polarization can be expected to further with the worsening fragmentation within the parties.

References
Spain: Thousands stage anti-government protest in Madrid,” Deutsche Welle, 21 Januaru 2023
A change of government in Spain is likely but not inevitable in 2023,” The Economist, 18 November 2022
Daniel Dombey and Ian Mount, “Spain’s moneyed classes step up anti-government protests,” FT, 20 May 2020
Catalan nationalists protest as their leaders are jailed for sedition,” The Economist, 14 October 2019
Pedro Sánchez again falls short of a majority in Spain’s election,” The Economist, 14 November 2019
Bjarke Smith-Meyer, “Tens of thousands protest Spanish PM’s Catalan policy,” Politico.eu, 10 February 2019
Spain’s new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, assembles a reassuring team,” The Economist, 07 June 2018


War in Ukraine: Day 336
By Padmashree Anandhan 

War on the Ground
On 25 January, the Ukraine military spokesperson announced the decision on withdrawal of defence force from Soledar to protect the lives of the “service personnel.” Russia’s claims of capturing Soledar was initially denied by Ukraine’s troops has now withdrawn.

On 25 January, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the meeting with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. Establishing access to Ukrainians deported into Russia, protection of refugee rights, and “criminal deportation” were the key topics discussed during the meeting. Zelenskyy reported on close to two million Ukrainians have been forcefully deported.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 25 January, the Russian Defence Ministry released a statement on the Zircon missile (hypersonic) test. In the statement, the Ministry reported that the test was carried out at 900 kilometers distance in the Atlantic Ocean.

On 25 January, RT reported on the French sportswear Decathlon suspension of the supply of goods to Russia upon EU’s sanctions. This has led the company to search for buyers to sell Russian assets. This includes 20 buildings, warehouse spaces, and land plots worth 15 billion Rubles. Selling such assets would require approval from the subcommittee of Russia’s Ministry of Finance, which recently passed a rule to bar the withdrawal of such funds.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 25 January, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the decision to provide 14 Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks to Ukraine. This also grants other European countries to send similar tanks to Ukraine and training of the Ukrainian troops. He said: “I need to explicitly say; it was right and it keeps on being right not to have been pushed forward but to have waited for international cooperation to take place.” In response, Zelenskyy thanked for the support, while Russia’s Dimitry Peskov condemned the move: “Bring nothing good to the future relationship.” The decision was greeted by Latvia’s President Egils Levits: “And if we have an aggressive neighbour, it is natural that we are increasing our defense capabilities.” Along with Latvia, NATO, the UK, and France welcomed Germany’s move. Spain and Norway have expressed consent to provide Leopard 2A4 and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

On 25 January, US President Joe Biden announced similar to Germany to provide 31 M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 25 January, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) confirmed taking steps to include athletes from Russia and Belarus to take part in the 2024 Paris Games. In a statement: “No athlete should be prevented from competing just because of their passport.” The IOC President on the same lines said that due to war, sports cannot be politicized.

On 25 January, UNESCO relooked into the proceedings to categorize the historic center of Odesa as “endangered” World Heritage Site. Such classification will help the city to receive assistance to protect the site and maintain the area. This is due to the increased attacks of Russia on the cultural center of the Black Sea.

References 
Zelensky meets with UN High Commissioner for Refugees,” Ukrinform, 25 January 2023
French sportswear retailer selling Russian business – RBK,” RT, 25 January 2023
Russian Frigate Admiral Gorshkov Test-Fires Zircon Missile in Atlantic: Video,” Sputnik, 25 January 2023
Ukraine updates: Germany approves sending of Leopard 2 tanks,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2023  


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Kristo forms state-level coalition government months after elections 
On 25 January, Bosnia and Herzegovina formed a state-level government led by Chairwoman Borjana Kristo. Her Council of Ministers received the support of  23 out of 42 members of the House of Representatives. The nine Council of Ministers led by Kristo represents the state-level coalition in the House of Representatives which includes the Bosnian Serb party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, the HDZ, and six parties from the Osmorka group. Kristo belongs to the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) designated as President. The Council earlier received criticism from other parties for its lack of gender equality as only two women are a part of the Council. (Azem Kurtic “Bosnia Finally Forms State-Level Government,” Balkan Insight, 25 January 2023)   

ITALY
Gas station workers hold strikes upon failure to reach consensus with the government 
On 25 January, gas station workers belonging to FAIB, FEGICA, and FIGISC gas unions staged a walkout after failing to reach a consensus with the government. The workers of the FEGICA and FIGISC unions staged a 48-hour strike whereas FAIB workers staged a 24-hour strike. This comes as the Italian government withdrew discounts on gas prices and put forth a transparency policy to prevent “speculation in prices.” The unions objected to this as the latter clause could lead to a clash between gas stations and customers. (Baris Seckin “Italy's gas station workers go on strike,” Anadolu Agency, 25 January 2023)   

SLOVAKIA 
Parliament amends the constitution to allow early elections 
On 25 January, Slovakian Parliament introduced amendments to the constitution to hold early elections. The amendment was passed by 92 lawmakers. The new amendment allows Slovakia to hold snap elections if the motion is passed with a three-fifths majority in the National Council. This allows the Council to decide on a possible election date after Prime Minister Eduard Heger’s government lost the no-confidence vote in December 2022. (“Slovakia parliament changes constitution to enable snap vote,” Independent.co.uk, 25 January 2023)  

THE UK 
Hundreds Albanian children missing from asylum centres 
On 25 January, the UK Home Office Parliamentary Under Secretary of State Simon Murray stated that out of 200 missing migrant children 88 per cent of them are Albanian. This comes as UK Interior Minister Robert Jenrick informed the parliament that since 2021 4,600 child asylum seekers had arrived in the UK out of which 440 had gone missing and only half had returned. Murray added: “The Home Office have no power to detain unaccompanied asylum-seeking children in these hotels, and we do know that some of them go missing,” and that many are traced and found later.  This drew criticism from NGOs who questioned the lack of action by the government and authorities over this issue. Stand For All, a human rights advocacy organization, Director Daniel Sohege said: “The [UK] government has done nothing but attack Albanians, ignoring how Albanian young people are one of the most at-risk groups of child trafficking.” The Child Rights Centre in Albania (CRCA) criticized the government saying that it is obligated under international law to protect unaccompanied children and added: “One has to wonder if this lack of care and responsibility comes from the fact that they are foreign children.” (Fjori Sinoruka “Concerns Grow About Albanian Children Missing in UK,” Balkan Insight, 25 January 2023; Alice Taylor “UK government lost 176 Albanian child asylum seekers, didn’t notify Tirana,” EURACTIV, 25 January 2023)  

REGIONAL 
Finland approves first commercial military material exports to Turkey
On 25 January, Finalnds Defence Ministry stated that it had approved the first commercial military material exports license since 2019 to Turkey. The Defence Ministry’s Special adviser Riikka Pitkanen outlined that the licence issued was for steel used in armour making. The issue of licences was one of the demands of Turkey for it to ratify Finland’s NATO bid. (“Finland OKs 1st military exports to Türkiye since 2019 amid NATO row,” Daily Sabah, 25 January 2023)  

INTERNATIONAL
EU proposes 70 projects to combat China’s BRI
On 23 January, the EU announced the Global Gateway project which acts as a counter to China’s Belt and Road initiative. The new initiative includes 70 projects of which the first one is to lay an optical fibre cable under the Black Sea which connects North African and Mediterranean countries. It also includes a dam and hydroelectric plant in Cameroon. The EU aims to mobilize over EUR 300 billion from public and private funders by 2027 to fund EU projects abroad. Some of the other projects include an energy transition in Indonesia, a hydrogen project in Kazakhstan, a transport link in Central Asia and a digital connectivity project in the Philippines. (Barbara Moens “EU lines up 70 projects to rival China’s Belt and Road infrastructure spending,” Politico, 23 January 2023) 

French troops to leave Burkina Faso within a month 
On 25 January, the French Foreign Ministry announced that French forces would be leaving Burkina Faso within a month. This comes as Burkina Faso submitted a formal denunciation to the French government which outlined a request for the withdrawal of French troops from the country. The ministry referred to a 2018 agreement between the two countries and said: “the termination takes effect a month after reception of written notification. We will respect the terms of the agreement by honoring this request.” The 400 troops deployed in Burkina Faso are said to withdraw by the end of February. (“France to 'respect' Burkina Faso's request and pull troops,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2023)

FASHION
Paris Fashion Week draws criticism and praise
On 25 January, Deutsche Welle reported that at the Paris Fashion Week, Schiaparell’s show drew criticism and praise over its dress which featured life-like animal heads. While Schiaparelli had issued a statement saying that they were made from “foam, wool and silk faux fur and hand painted to look as life-like as possible,” many criticised it saying that it promoted trophy hunting. It also received praise from PETA President Ingrid Newkirk calling it innovative and adding: “may be a statement against trophy hunting, in which lion families are torn apart to satisfy human egotism.” At Dior’s show, the designers paid tribute to Josephine Baker, an African-American woman with dresses reflecting the style from the 1920s to the 1950s. The show also included 13 blow-up portraits of famous African-American women in the industry. Apart from the dresses, Louis-Gabriel Nouchi’s show made a political statement with a model walking the runway with a sign that read “Stop the executions in Iran.” (Brenda Haas “Paris Fashion Week: What everybody is talking about,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2023)


20 January 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #415

War in Ukraine: Day 330 | In Brief: Greenland records the highest temperature in a millennium

Photo : IAEA


War in Ukraine: Day 330

War on the Ground 
On 19 January, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged EU members and candidate states to come together to implement the Peace Formula. Speaking at the press conference with European Council President Charles Michel, Zelenskyy called upon European Partners to support “relevant international efforts and decisions, in particular the resolution of the UN General Assembly that is being prepared.”

On 19 January, Kyiv Regional Military Administration Head Oleksiy Kuleba said that 16 people were still hospitalized after the helicopter crash on 18 January. Out of the 16, six are children and Kuleba added that none of them was seriously injured. The helicopter crash in Brovary, Kyiv injured more than 25 people and killed 14 people. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia  
On 19 January, Russia’s Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that Ukraine and Zelenskyy would have preferred if Russia and President Vladimir Putin did not exist. Peskov said: “It is clear that both Russia and Putin are a big problem for today's Ukraine and for Zelensky.” These statements were made due to Zelenskyy’s statements at Davos 2023. Peskov stressed Ukraine agreed to Russia’s demands to bring an end to the conflict sooner. 

On 19 January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine blatantly biased. Lavrov said: “it was aimed at supporting the version of events that the Ukrainian authorities painstakingly presented to the public, and in many cases, the mission withheld information about the real situation.” According to Lavrov, the Mission was sent to Ukraine to see through the implementation of the Minsk agreement’s provisions. He added that Russia is looking into the information which implied that the SMM officials withheld information and aided Ukraine’s administration to carry out military operations against civilians.  

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 January, Estonia, the UK, Poland, Latvia, Denmark, and Lithuania Defence Ministers and the Czech Republic, the Netherlands representatives released a joint statement reaffirming their resolve to support Ukraine’s fight against Russia. In the statement, the defence ministers and representatives pledged to continue their military and civilian support and expansion will now include battle tanks. The aid will come from the country’s supply. The pledge termed the “Tallinn Pledge” outlines donations by each country. Poland and the UK outlined plans to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks respectively. The other donations include howitzers, ammunition, aircraft, and training in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  

On 19 January, the UK Ministry of Defence said that Russia was allegedly looking to deploy a few T-14 Armata main battle tanks in Ukraine. The Ministry made this assumption based on Russian media reports which claimed that the tanks were being prepared to be sent to Ukraine and imagery showing T-14s in southern Russia. The Ministry said that any such deployment will be mainly for propaganda purposes as it will have a high-risk factor for Russia in its operations. The ministry added: “Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat.”

On 19 January, Ministers of European Parliament (MEP) urged Russian leadership to hold themselves accountable for the “crime” of aggression against Ukraine. The MEPs said the “atrocities” committed by Russia in Ukraine show the “brutality” of the war and undermined the importance of a comprehensive international action to bring justice to those responsible. They pushed the EU to make a special international tribunal to persecute Russia and its allies. The MEP’s added that a tribunal would “fill a vacuum” in international criminal justice and also lead the jurisdiction to investigate “not only Vladimir Putin” but the rest of Russia’s allies as well. Further, they reiterated that the EU plays an imperative role in building a special tribunal and that it must focus on “building” arrangements for the court in cooperation with Ukraine. 

On 19 January, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland is “willing” to give Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine without seeking Germany’s approval if it fails to agree to Poland’s re-export at the Western defence ministers at the Ramstein air base. Morawiecki remarked that consent regarding the tanks was of “secondary importance” and that military aid to Ukraine was of primary importance to Poland. Morawiecki added: “We will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do it ourselves.”

Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine War

On 19 January, International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi briefed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the extending and “intensifying” activities of the IAEA. The discussion entailed detailed briefs about nuclear safety and the security protection zone around the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which is Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Grossi reiterated that the zone is “essential” for putting a stop to a “severe” nuclear accident and that the IAEA would “press ahead” with efforts to make the zone a “reality.” This comes as the IAEA has planned to implement its activities across Ukraine and has ensured the country of consistent support to prevent a “nuclear accident” during the war and resist any “dangers” from happening.  

References
Zelensky calls on EU members, candidates for membership to join implementation of peace formula,” Ukrinform, 19 January 2023
Sixteen people, including six children, are in hospitals after helicopter crash in Brovary,” Ukrinform, 19 January 2023
Psychologically, Zelensky would prefer Putin, Russia never existed — Kremlin spokesman,” Tass, 19 January 2023
Lavrov scolds OSCE mission in Ukraine for Western bias,” Tass, 19 January 2023
Joint Statement – The Tallinn Pledge,” gov.uk, 19 January 2023
Dan Sabbagh “
Poland could send Leopard tanks to Ukraine without German approval,” The Guardian, 20 January 2023
Ukraine war: MEPs push for special tribunal to punish Russian crimes,” europarl.europa.eu, 19 January 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 January 2023,” Twitter, 19 January 2023
Speech by President Charles Michel to the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv,” consilium.europa.eu, 19 January 2023
Update 143 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 20 January 2023


IN BRIEF

GERMANY
Defence Minister meets US Counterpart, discusses supply of tanks to Ukraine
On 19 January, newly appointed German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius met US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on the same day that he took charge in the office. His meeting comes at a time when a debate rages on whether to supply Ukraine with more heavy military equipment or not. Germany is reluctant to provide its domestic Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine. Russia has threatened severe action if the West provides more aid to Ukraine. Pistorius has not as of yet issued any statement of what the future course of action is. (“New German ‘defense minister meets US counterpart,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2023)

SWEDEN
District court sentenced two men of espionage found to be Russian agents
On 19 January, Stockholm's District Court sentenced two men to prison for being Russian agents. The men, who are brothers, have been acting on behalf of Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU, for more than a decade. The older brother was an intelligence officer with the Swedish intelligence agency Sapo, who passed on confidential information. The court convicted him of espionage and handed him a life sentence without provision for pardon. The younger brother has been convicted of managing contacts and planning communications with Russian counterparts and has been given a sentence of 10 years in prison. The brothers' names are Peyman Kia and Payam Kia, they became naturalised Swedish citizens after arriving from Iran, in 1992. (“Sweden: Two brothers convicted of spying for Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2023)

THE UK
Post-Brexit UK Bankers leave to the EU for better pay
On 19 January, the European Banking Authority published the data on the movement of banking employees post-Brexit. The data revealed that UK Bankers are leaving the country for Spain, Italy and France. The data showed that 1,957 bankers in total had relocated to other counties. These bankers were being paid more than EUR one million. The major reasons for migration are better to pay, and residency in the EU. (Rupert Neate, “Brexit exodus helps drive record number in EU banks paid €1m-plus,” The Guardian, 19 January 2023)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Greenland records the highest temperature in a millennium
On 18 January, a study published in the journal Nature found that temperatures in Greenland have become the warmest recorded in a millennium. The study was conducted over many years and noted the temperatures of ice cores from 1995. Greenland's ice cores are some of the remotest and purest areas in which scientists study temperature change. Previously, the temperature change event had not been noticed as it had been masked due to an event known as "Greenland blocking." The ice sheets contain information on the earth's temperature history in the form of ice formation during different periods. Scientists are alarmed over the rise in temperatures as this will lead to a rise in seawater levels with the ice melting away. (Seth Borenstein, “New ice core analysis shows sharp Greenland warming spike.” Associated Press, 19 January 2023)

Data reveals Europeans used less energy to heat homes during Winter 2022
On 18 January, the smart thermostat maker Tado published its findings on household heating for the winter of 2022. The findings revealed that European countries in general reduced their energy usage for heating homes. The Netherlands reduced the temperatures most, nearly meeting the target set by the company of one-degree Celsius. In Germany, the government had decided to reduce temperatures in public offices to 19 degrees which helped in conserving energy. The European public too reacted in kind by reducing their personal usage. This is due to both the higher prices and the lack of natural gas. Europe imports most of its energy and gas fulfils 32 per cent of the energy requirements. European governments too had requested their citizens to use less energy due to the ongoing crisis. (Thomas Escritt, “Europeans dial down the heating, heed calls to save energy,” Reuters, 18 January 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Head of the European Central Bank lays out 2023 goals: tackle inflation and finance EU's green transition
On 19 January, the Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde spoke at Davos 2023 on Europe's Growth in the coming year. She identified inflation as the major challenge the bloc will face. This is also going to be the main aim of the bank, to reign in rampant inflation and bring it down to target levels. In the bank's view, the current inflation is unsustainable in the long run and needs to be brought back to 2 per cent. She announced the bank will raise interest rates by 250 base points to achieve this. Lagarde spoke of plans for Europe's transition to Green Energy. She outlined plans for financing the project, obtaining half a trillion dollars over 8 years and creating a single capital market. (“Lagarde at Davos 2023: Reducing inflation is 'prime
mission' of the European Central Bank
,” World Economic Forum, 19 January 2023)


19 January 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #414

Ukraine war: Day 329 I In Brief: Ursula introduces the ‘Green Deal Industrial Plan’ at Davos 2023

Photo : IIya Pitalev/Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 329
By Padmashree Anandhan 

War on the Ground 
On 17 January, the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories released a data found by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy which recorded the aid received by Ukraine. The data revealed that since the start of war, Ukraine has received EUR 113 billion in form of military, financial, and humanitarian support from the international. While EU leads in financial aid with the support of EUR 52 billion, the US remains the lead in security aid with EUR 48 billion.

On 18 January, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on the ground efforts by Russian troops to be focused towards Bakhmut, but the offensive towards Avidiivka were observed to be ineffective. The attacks from Russia in Luhansk and Donetsk area seemed to be countered well by Ukraine forces and Belarus was reported to be supporting Russia through joint exercises. Russian shelling was also reported towards Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. 

On 18 January, Ukrinform reported on the continued use of forces as “cannon fodder” by Russians and the loss incurred by Russia in the battles for Bakhmut and Soledar. In the report, Bakhmut and Soledar remains the hotspots, where Russia’s Wagner group has lost close to 40,000 in the battle.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 January, in the 80th anniversary of the blockade of Leningrad, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin stated why Russia invaded Ukraine. He expressed how it was unbearable for Russia to withstand Ukraine’s act of eliminating people who were linked to Russian culture and language which invoked Russia to launch the military operation. Putin added: “We endured for a long time, tried to reach an agreement for a long time. But, as it turns out now, we were simply led by the nose, deceived.” 

On 18 January, in the same forum, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia would halt its operation when there is no threat from the military infrastructure in Ukraine. He stressed on Ukraine to “ not discriminate against and harass Russian speakers.” He also condemned the West for not implementing the international treaties and for lying on signed commitments. Lavrov also highlighted West as “colonialist mentality in a new dimension.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 January, the EU announced to speed its chemical and nuclear preparedness measures through a stockpile in Finland. It allocated EUR 242 million to Finland to create a reserve against chemical, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats to protect the member states. According to European Commissioner for Crisis Management: “..will provide the EU with a significant safety net enabling a quick and coordinated response at EU level.” The reserve is expected to be ready from 2024, which will include medical countermeasures, response equipment and medical devices.

On 18 January, NATO’s Secretary General and  Deputy Secretary General issued statements on the trajectory of the Ukraine war. According to Jens Stoltenberg: “This is a pivotal moment in the war and the need for a significant increase in support for Ukraine.” He stated that for striking a peace solution, more arms would be needed at present. According to Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana: “We have no indication that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's goals have changed…Russia has mobilized more than 200,000 additional troops.”

On 18 January, aligning with Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand announcement, Canada sent 3000 tonnes of military support to Ukraine. This includes 200 armoured personnel carriers totalling to the CAD five billion overall aid to Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 January, Israel’s Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed on the transfer of US’s stockpile located in Israel. The transfer is not viewed as threat to the Israel’s readiness, but till now Israel had maintained a neutral stance in the Ukraine war. The transfer of weapons to Ukraine means US using of its existing reserves would be to support the back end production of weapons and munitions. According IDF, the transfer does not imply change in its defence policy but was agreed upon US’s  request.

References 
International aid to Ukraine exceeds €113B,” Ukrinform, 17 January 2023
War update: Enemy conducts unsuccessful offensive actions in Avdiivka direction,” Ukrinform, 18 January 2023
Wagner Group loses about two-thirds of its personnel in battles for Bakhmut and Soledar – expert,” Ukrinform, 18 January 2023
We couldn’t ignore what was happening in Ukraine – Putin,” RT, 18 January 2023
US deception, future of Ukraine conflict, and no business as usual with West: key points from Lavrov’s big Q&A,” RT, 18 January 2023
Russia indicates when Ukraine conflict may end,” RT, 18 January 2023
"Meeting with veterans of the Great Patriotic War, residents of besieged Leningrad and representatives of public patriotic associations," Kremlin.ru, 18 January 2023
Vladimir Putin took part in commemorative events marking the 80th anniversary of the breaking of the siege of Leningrad,” Kremlin.ru, 18 January 2023
EU sets up first stockpile to respond to chemical and nuclear emergencies in Finland,” Euronews, 17 January 2023
Canada already sent more than 3,000 tonnes of military aid to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 18 January 2023
Ukraine updates: Interior minister dies in helicopter crash,” Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2023
US will reimburse Israel for weapons transferred to Ukraine,” The Jerusalem Post, 18 January 2023


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

THE UK 
UK's think tank's find 330,000 worker loss in labour fource due to Brexit
On 17 January, the UK in a Changing Europe and Center for European Reform released data which outlined that Brexit cost UK economy 330, workers. The data revealed that the net loss of workers was around one per cent of the UK’s labour force. The two think tanks highlighted that as of September 2022, the number of EU-origin workers in the UK had decreased by 460,000 when compared to figures if the UK was part of the EU. They also observed an increase of approximately 130,000 non-EU workers which offset the potential consequences caused by the decrease in workers. This has led to a decreased labour supply for certain sectors of the UK economy such as wholesale and retail, manufacturing, transportation and storage, administration, accommodation and food. (Benjamin Fox “Brexit cost 330,000 drop in UK labour force, new research finds,” EURACTIV, 18 January 2023)

New set of protests by nurses for hike in pay 
On 18 January, nurses in the UK staged a walkout demanding a rise in pay adding to the surge of strikes by public workers. Nurses from hospitals and clinics staged a 12-hour strike which led to a delay and postponement of appointments and procedures. While emergency care and cancer treatment were not affected, the strikes added pressure to the overwhelmed public health system. Royal College of Nursing union head Pat Cullen has called on health officials to the negotiating table to prevent further strikes in February. The 12-hour strikes are said to continue on 19 January. Public workers in the UK have been staging multiple strikes demanding an increase in pay amid rising inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. (Jill Lawless “UK nurses stage new walkout as strike wave intensifies,” AP News, 18 January 2023)

REGIONAL 
EU to increase humanitarian aid funding to EUR 1.7 billion in 2023
On 18 January, the European Commission stated that the EU’s humanitarian aid for 2023 will be EUR 1.7 billion. The aid will be distributed in Southeast Europe and the European Neighbourhood, the Sahel, Central African Republic and the Lake Chad basin, East and Southern Africa, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and Latin America. The aid will also be distributed for climate-related crises, innovative projects, and policy initiatives and reserved for unanticipated humanitarian crises. Around EUR 1.3 billion will be distributed to the various regions to address the consequences of armed conflict, food crisis, climate disaster, regional conflicts, refugee assistance and consequences of the Russian war. (“Humanitarian Aid: EU increases funding to €1.7 billion for 2023,” ec.europa.eu, 18 January 2023)

The final version of the EU's Chips Act focuses on regulation and promotes international cooperation
On 18 January, Euractiv outlined the new changes made to the Chips Act by the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research and Energy  (ITRE). The changes include defining the conditions to qualify as a first-of-a-kind facility and introducing concrete triggers for implementing emergency measures which will be developed by the EU in collaboration with national authorities and market representatives. The ITRE also added the list of critical sectors in the annex of the Act for efficient regulation, increased funding, safeguarding supply chains through international cooperation, and increased protection of IP rights. (Luca Bertuzzi “EU Parliament’s leading committee readies final position on Chips Act,” EURACTIV, 18 January 2023)

Lithuania renounces cross-border cooperation agreement with Belarus
On 18 January, Lithuania’s Interior Ministry renounced the agreement signed with Belarus outlining the principles of cross-border cooperation. The Ministry added that the implementation of the agreement is not possible due to the current geopolitical scenario. The Interior Ministry’s Deputy Arnoldas Abramavičius said: “The Belarusian government has taken a confrontational stance, both by organising the flow of irregular migrants and by being directly involved in and supporting Russian aggression.” The agreement was signed between Lithuania and Belarus on 01 June 2006 outlining areas of cross-border cooperation. The areas highlighted were infrastructure, sports, tourism, education, movement of vehicles and passengers, energy efficiency and more. (“Lithuania renounces cooperation agreement with Belarus,” LRT.lt, 18 January 2023)

Ursula introduces the ‘Green Deal Industrial Plan’ at the WEF Davos 2023
On 17 January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced the EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan’ at the Davos 2023. According to Von der Leyen, the plan aims at making “Europe the home of cleantech and industrial innovation on the road to net zero.” The plan has four pillars, first is the regulatory environment ensuring efficient speed and access to reach net zero. The second pillar looks at increasing investments and financing of clean-technology production to keep the European market attractive and competitive. Third, the development of skills ensures a smooth transition and the fourth pillar is to support fair and open trade of clean technology for the benefit of all. Von der Leyen added that the EU would take up various policies and initiatives under the four pillars and existing initiatives to ensure an efficient implementation of the plan. (“Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum,” ec.europa.eu, 17 January 2023) 

TECHNOLOGY
Taiwan to share semiconductor technology with Lithuania 
On 18 January, Lithuania’s Teltonika IoT Group and Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute signed an agreement on semiconductor chip technology sharing. The EUR 14 million deal will help Teltonika gain access to use the licences of the chip manufacturing technology and devices developed by the institute. Out of the EUR 14 million, EUR 10 million will be given by the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry and the rest will be supplemented by Teltonika. The projects under the deal are said to be completed by 2027. Teltonika IoT Group Founder and President Arvydas Paukštis said: “I believe that the implementation of the planned works will help Lithuania to be among the most advanced countries in the world.” (Giedrius Gaidamavičius “Lithuania and Taiwan sign deal on semiconductor technology sharing,” LRT.lt, 18 January 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
Urmas Reinsalu reiterates Estonia’s support for the EU monitoring mission at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
On 18 January, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu met with Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan where the two discussed increased cooperation between Armenia and Estonia. Reinsalu reiterated Estonia’s support for a permanent EU monitoring mission at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border to establish peace in the region. The two also discussed the effective implementation of the EU's Eastern Partnership platform. Khachaturyan is on an official visit to Estonia where he met Estonian President Alar Karis on 16 January. (“FM: Estonia supports decision to deploy permanent EU monitoring mission along Armenia-Azerbaijan border,” NEWS.am, 18 January 2023) 


18 January 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #413

War in Ukraine: Day 328

Photo : Valery Sharifulin/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 328

War on the Ground 
On 17 January, Ukraine President’s Office Deputy Head Andriy Smyrnov called for a special tribunal to investigate the role of Russian military and political leaders in the Ukraine war. Smyrnov during a World Economic Forum Meeting (WEF) on ‘The Black Book of Russian War Crimes: Facts of Genocide’ said that the tribunal will ensure that suitable arrest warrants and indictments can be issued against the leadership. He urged allied countries to set up the tribunal to investigate “Russia’s crime of aggression against Ukraine.”

On 17 January, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that nine thermal power plants (TPP) were destroyed due to Russia’s latest attack. Shmyhal said that in the nine TPPs, one unit was destroyed in eastern Ukraine and the rest were destroyed in western Ukraine. He added that the attack also damaged three key substations and one overhead line.

On 17 January, Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska presented Ukraine’s Peace Formula at the Congress Centre of the World Economic Forum (WEF). Zelnska said that the presentation was about the role of the Formula in the humanitarian and human dimensions. The Peace Formula was presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the G20 and contains ten points to achieve peace in the Ukraine conflict. She advocated for the swift implementation of the Peace Formula.      

On 17 January, Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the rescue operation in Dnipro was completed. Zelenskyy said that the final count of casualties totalled 45 dead out of which six were children and 79 were injured. Dnipro was attacked by Russia on 14 January with a Kh-22 missile which hit a nine-story residential building.  

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia
 
On 17 January, the Russian Foreign Ministry levied fresh sanctions on EU officials as a response to the ninth-EU sanctions package. The Ministry outlined that it had extended the number of EU officials banned from entering Russia. Additionally, sanctions now include EU law enforcement agencies that are training Ukrainian troops and European state and commercial weapons and military hardware manufacturers which are being supplied to Ukraine. The Ministry said that the list also includes EU nationals who have repeatedly engaged in anti-Russian views in public. The ministry added: “Any unfriendly actions by Western countries will receive a timely and adequate response.”

On 17 January, Russia’s ombudswoman Tatiana Moskalkova said that she has not discussed the Prisoner exchange matter with Ukrainian ombudsman Dmitry Luninets in Turkey. Moskalkova said that she was surprised to see media reports regarding a prisoner exchange between the two countries with 800 Ukrainians will be swapped for 200 Russians. She added: “I always stress that these matters are in the purview of the Russian defence ministry.” Moskalkova called the terms unfair and said that issue of repatriation should be on the lines of the 1949 Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

On 17 January, Russian Security Council Deputy Head Dmitry Medvedev criticised the participants of the WEF for discussing the issue of tank supplies to Ukraine. Medvedev singled out Polish President Andrzej Duda for his remarks calling for a coalition of Western countries the supply armoured tanks to Ukraine. Medvedev said: “They probably hope that ‘a tank coalition’ will bring Ukraine’s division closer, which is what the Poles dream about.” He added that they should instead draft a collective document announcing Ukraine’s surrender specifying the makeup of Ukraine after the war. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 17 January, the Romanian Defence Ministry announced that NATO’s Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) planes had landed in Romania. Two of the three planes landed at the Otopeni air base and the third one will be arriving on 18 January. The AWACS came from the fleet of 14 based in Germany to monitor Russian military activity at the Romania-Russia border. 

On 17 January, Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin at the WEF said that Finland will support Ukraine “as long as needed.” Marin said that the EU should have taken a harsher stance against Russia after 2014 and expects that the West has learned a lesson on how to deal with Russia. Marin also said that the war would not have taken place if Ukraine was a member of NATO. She added: “We want to become a member of NATO because we don't ever again want war in Finland. We have been at war with Russia before.”    

On 17 January, Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that the Netherlands is considering sending a Patriot missile system to Ukraine. Rutte in a meeting with US President Joe Biden said: “We have the intention to join what you are doing with Germany on the Patriot project, so the air defence system.” He said that he had spoken to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding the same and added that the recent attacks on Dnipro had increased “our resolve to stay with Ukraine.”

On 17 January, Poland President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda urged Germany to supply more tanks to Ukraine. Duda welcomed Germany’s decision to supply Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and called it a “ very needed decision.” Nausėda called the decision a “very strategic factor in this war,” but called on Germany to clear all the delays for the supply of the tanks as soon as possible. Nausėda said: “We don’t have the luxury for such delays, and decision-making must be decisive, fast.” Duda reiterated Poland’s intention to supply Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks saying: “Poland has declared the transfer of a company of Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition. Consultations with allies are underway.” 

Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine War 

On 17 January, Ukraine’s Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories  said that the global aid to Ukraine since 24 February has exceeded EUR 113 billion. The ministry cited findings by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy saying that 40 countries have donated to Ukraine through military, humanitarian and financial aid. The 40 donor countries include Canada, Australia, India, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The Ministry said that the US alone has provided aid worth EUR 52 billion to Ukraine out of which EUR 23 billion in security assistance. It added that the EU has provided the most in terms of financial aid and along with European institutions has pledged to give Ukraine EUR 35 billion to address its budgetary needs. It also said that EUR 13 billion was given to Ukraine through international aid.               

On 17 January, Tennis Australia (TA) banned fans from holding Russian and Belarusian flags at the Australian Open. While fans were allowed to carry the flags to show support to Russian and Belarusian players, TA banned the flag after it was visible courtside in the match of Russia’s Kamilla Rakhimova against  Ukraine’s Kateryna Baindl on 16 January. The TA said: “The ban is effective immediately. We will continue to work with the players and our fans to ensure the best possible environment to enjoy the tennis.” 

References
Ukraine calls for Special Tribunal for Russian political, military leadership,” Ukrinform, 17 January 2023 
PM Shmyhal: Russia's latest attack damaged nine TPPs in Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 17 January 2023
Olena Zelenska presented the Ukrainian Peace Formula at the World Economic Forum in Davos,” president.gov.ua, 17 January 2023
The world hears Ukraine in Davos and knows what Russia has done to Dnipro and other territories it brought death to - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 17 January 2023
Russia imposes entry ban on EU officials in response to 9th package of sanctions,” Tass, 17 January 2023
Russian ombudswoman denies discussing prisoner swap with Ukrainian counterpart,” Tass, 17 January 2023
Medvedev slams WEF for discussing tank supplies to Ukraine instead of economy,” Tass, 17 January 2023
Stephen McGrath and Andreea Alexandru “
NATO surveillance planes temporarily deployed to Romania,” AP News, 17 January 2023
Darren Boyle “
Finland's PM Sanna Marin vows to back Ukraine 'as long as needed' as she joins global elite in Davos,” Daily Mail, 17 January 2023 
Finnish PM: EU Should Have Been 'Much Harder' On Russia After 2014,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 17 January 2023
Katie Rogers and ana Swanson “
Netherlands Considers Sending Patriot Missile System to Ukraine,” The New York Times, 17 January 2023 
James Randerson “
Poland and Lithuania pile pressure on Germany to supply tanks to Ukraine,” Politico, 17 January 2023
International aid to Ukraine exceeds €113B,” Ukrinform, 17 January 2023
Mike Hytner “
Tennis fans seen hoisting Russian flag at Australian Open despite ban,” The Guardian, 17 January 2023  


IN BRIEF

 

ESTONIA
Ministry of Defence continues to increase expenditure in acquiring weapons
On 17 January, Defence news reported on Estonia’s Ministry of Defence announced its decision to buy 12 K9 Thunder howitzers as part of its artillery fleet expansion plan. Under the EUR 36 million deal, the Estonian Defence Forces will operate 36 similar weapons. The continued expansion of Estonia’s investments reflects the growing need for “indirect fire weapons.” According to the Defence Minister: “…we have made quick decisions to equip both infantry brigades with additional K9 Thunder mobile howitzers and bring Estonia’s indirect fire capability to a completely new level.” Apart from Estonia, Poland is also among those to purchase K9 Thunder from South Korea’s Hanwha Defence. Similar to the deal with South Korea, Estonia is also part of a similar contract with the US to buy six M142 HIMARS. (Jaroslaw Adamowski, “Estonia buys 12 more howitzers amid ‘lessons from Ukraine’,” Defence news, 17 January 2023)

 

FINLAND
Environment Institute reports infrastructural damage due to inland flooding
On 17 January, the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke) reported on increasing water levels in the western and southern part of Finland. According to Syke the reported floods are viewed as exception with zero possibility for a “serious flood damage” via roads, and underwater fields. The 2022 report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found increased impact on the infrastructure due to “inland flooding.” Similarly Finland’s climate panel warned on more floods in the upcoming years in 2021. (“Winter floods hit Finland,” Yle.fi, 17 January 2023)

TURKEY
Defence industry plans to produce alternatives of US-made HIMARS 
On 16 January, Hungary’s, Industry and Technology Minister Mustafa Varank commented on Turkey’s defence industry capacity to produce alternative products to US’s HIMARS rocket launchers. According to Varank: “We produce alternative products to HIMARS in Türkiye, and if there is a need for them, we are ready to provide the necessary support for these products.” He added that Turkey’s defence industry cooperation has been improving with Hungary in supply of armoured vehicles and drone technologies. (“Türkiye can supply Hungary with HIMARS alternatives: Minister,” Daily Sabah, 17 January 2023)

REGIONAL
NATO General assures security support to Bosnia
On 16 January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met member of the tripartite Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Denis Bećirović to discuss the stability and the significance of the alliance in the Western Balkans region. During the meet Stoltenberg stressed on concentrating on reforms to protect the “multi-ethnic institutions.” He also added on the NATO’s support in helping develop a “defence capacity building package” to boost the security capabilities. On 17 January, the representatives of NATO’s Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme and scientific group of Bosnia and Herzegovina exchanged areas for cooperation in the field of “cyber defence, counter-terrorism and the detection of explosive hazards.” According to a NATO spokesperson: “Our cooperation aligns with our evolving partnership and with an ever-changing security landscape, and is increasingly focusing on the application of technologies to tackle new and emerging challenges.” (“NATO Secretary General meets with Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.” Nato.int, 16 January 2023; “NATO and Bosnia and Herzegovina strengthen science and technology cooperation,” Nato.int, 17 January 2023)

Slovenia to construct its first nuclear waste disposal site 
On 16 January, Slovenia’s Agency for Radioactive Waste (ARAO) announced its plan to construct a “low and intermediate” level radioactive waste disposal site near Krsko nuclear plant. The site is scheduled to remain in trial mode till 2026 and the first stage of the construction will provide access to roads, launch “environmental service” and build landfill facilities. In the third phase, “manufacturing and delivery of a lift and lifting equipment,” is expected to take place. According to the agency, the site will be a dumping site for radioactive waste along with capacity to hold 990 concrete containers. (Radomir Ralev, “Slovenia to start building nuclear waste disposal site in 2023 – report,” Seenews, 16 January 2023)

SPACE
Sweden and European Commission inaugurate Europe's first orbital launch facility 
On 17 January, Space News reported persisting ambiguity over Europe’s orbital launch. On 13 January, Sweden’s Prime Minister and European Commission’s President inaugurated the Esrange Space Center, Europe’s first orbital launch facility. According to SSC chair of the board Anna Kinberg Batra: “This will be instrumental for reaching the E.U. and U.N. sustainability goals as well as strategies within security and defense.” Till now Europe has accessed space through France’s space agency CNES, but through this initiative it will provide Europe an independent access featuring “..launch vehicle integration facility and three pads.” The first launch from the facility is expected to occur by end of 2023. (Jeff Foust, “Sweden opens orbital launch site looking for users,” Space News, 17 January 2023)


17 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #412

Erdoğan calls for extradition of individuals to ratify Sweden’s NATO bid | War in Ukraine: Day 327

Photo : REUTERS/Francois Lenoir/File Photo


IN FOCUS
By Madhura S Mahesh

On 15 January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Sweden should extradite or deport all the terrorists for Turkey to approve their NATO membership bid. Erdoğan added: “First of all, they need to extradite nearly 130 terrorists in order for their bids to pass our parliament, (but) unfortunately they have yet to do this.” This comes as PPK members staged a protest in Stockholm by hanging a puppet of Erdoğan outside the city hall. 

On the same day, Sweden Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that the negotiations with Turkey were in a “very good position.” Kristersson added: “The situation in terms of the negotiations, or rather the follow-up of the memorandum, is going well.” He previously condemned the protests saying that it was “sabotage” against Sweden’s bid for NATO membership. 

Sweden drew further criticism from Turkey after Swedish prosecutors on 16 January dismissed accusations against PKK members for slandering Erdoğan. The prosecutors said that their actions on 12 January is not a criminal offence. The prosecutors added that no spokesperson of Erdoğan’s AK Party Omer Celik criticised the decision and said: “If you protect a terrorist group who threatens our country, attacks our citizens and the military, then we cannot talk about an alliance here.” 

Who are the 130 terrorists? 
Erdoğan’s demand for the extradition of 130 terrorists is concerning the Trilateral Memorandum signed by Turkey, Finland and Sweden in June 2022. The Memorandum outlined Sweden and Finland’s support for Turkey’s fight against YPG/PYD, FETO and the PKK which are designated terrorist organisations. The memorandum also outlines Finland and Sweden’s commitment to addressing unresolved deportation or extradition requests by Turkey. Erdoğan previously had said that Sweden has aggreged to extradite 73 terrorists, 33 of the 73 were identified by the Turkish daily Hurriyet as people linked to the PKK. 

Erdoğan on 15 January also referred to a joint conference held in November with Kristersson where Erdoğan demanded the extradition of Bulent Kenes, the former editor-in-chief of Today’s Zaman and suspected member of the FETO. He said: “Interestingly, their court rejected the deportation of Bulent Kenes to us.”  

Turkey has previously applied for the extradition of suspected members of the OKK and other terrorist organizations but has been rejected many times. Out of the 33 individuals previously identified, 19 individuals' extradition requirements were rejected by Stockholm's Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has said that it will not be reopening the cases that have been processed. 

Extradition in Sweden is decided by independent courts and political leaders do not have a say in the final verdict. Additionally, individuals are not extradited on the grounds of political crimes or if they are at risk of persecution. While Sweden does extradite foreign nationals but only if it is according to the European Convention on Extradition. Additionally, it does not extradite Swedish citizens and the declared offences must be considered a crime in Sweden. 

Road Ahead 
On 14 January, Turkey’s Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said that Turkey running short of time to ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Kalin said: "We have a time issue if they want to join NATO before the NATO summit in June." He attributed this to the upcoming Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections which are said to be held in May 2023. 

Sweden on its part has been introducing new laws which will change the definitions of terrorism making it easy to implement the agreements of the Trilateral Memorandum. While Turkey has praised these measures it is of the view that Sweden needs to send a “clear message” to terrorist groups saying that it is no more a safe haven.

References
Merve Aydogan “Sweden must extradite terrorists if wants to join NATO: Türkiye,” Anadolu Agency, 15 January 2023
Sweden and Turkey give mixed messages over NATO bid,” Deutsche Welle, 16 Jan 2023
TRILATERAL MEMORANDUM,” um.fi, 29 June 2022
Phelan Chatterjee “
Who are 'terrorists' Turkey wants from Sweden and Finland?,” BBC, 05 July 2022
'Unacceptable': Anger in Türkiye as Sweden rejects case against PKK backers,” TRT World, 16 January 2023
Erdogan aide says time running out to ratify Sweden, Finland NATO bids,” Reuters, 14 January 2023


War in Ukraine: Day 327

War on the Ground
On 16 January, European Commission’s Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis tweeted on the macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. He confirmed the signing of MoU with Ukraine, which will finance EUR 18 billion as financial aid. Of which three billion has been given to help Ukraine stabilize its payments for 2023.

On 16 January, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal released a statement in Telegram on the meeting with the US Secretary of the State Wendy Sherman. The discussion focused on Dnipro attack that resulted in death of many Ukrainians and critical challenges posed by Russia, humanitarian support, financial aid, and restoring energy blocs.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 January, Kremlin reported on the call between Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. During the call the leaders discussed on boosting cooperation in energy, natural gas, and building of a “regional gas hub.” Putin highlighted Ukraine’s policy as destructive, and stated that hostility will continue with the West supplying more arms and equipment. They also discussed on “unblocking” the shipment of Russian food and fertilizer.

On 16 January, RT reported on Russian Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev comments on Ukraine’s drone attacks in Sevastopol. Razvozhayev reported on two continuous sets of attacks launched by Ukraine using UAV’s, which was observed to be limited as it failed to reach the targets and Russia claimed to have taken down all 10 drones. Till now five attacks have targeted Sevastopol near Belbek airport and above the Black Sea.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 16 January, Deutsche Welle reported the visit of US military's chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley to southern Germany. On 15 January, the US military began training the Ukrainian soldiers to handle “new combined arms.” According to Milley, the training is aimed to last between five to eight weeks to target close to 500 troops “combat-ready,” to launch offensives and counter Russian attacks. He added: “This support is really important for Ukraine to be able to defend itself.” Apart from this, US Army Air Defense Artillery school in Oklahoma, commander Colonel Curtis King confirmed the training of the Ukrainians on tasks relating to “operator and maintainer” of the Patriot Air Defence system.

On 16 January, in an address at the Hague, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called for “special international tribunal,” to address the crimes, gather financial support, and to “underpin the impartiality and legitimacy of this court.”

Global Fallouts
On 16 January, IAEA authorities reached South Ukraine for monitoring the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The IAEA team is expected to stay till safety and the hostility situation ends. According to IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi: “Taking into account all the risks and the current situation, we came to the conclusion that we need to strengthen the agency's presence at Ukrainian nuclear power plants.” In the mission, two “safety experts” will stay to monitor the plant, give technical support, record “off-site” events and report the findings. 

References
Honoured to sign MoU on behalf of the EU to provide Ukraine,” Valdis Dombrovskis/Twitter, 16 January 2023
PM Shmyhal, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Sherman discuss energy infrastructure restoration, financial aid,” Ukrinform, 16 January 2023
IAEA representatives arrive at South Ukraine NPP,” Ukrinform, 16 January 2023
Putin and Erdogan discuss ‘priorities’,” RT, 16 January 2023
Telephone conversation with President of Turkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” Kremlin.ru, 16 January 2023
Black Sea port repels two Ukrainian drone attacks within 24 hours – official,” RT, 16 January 2023
Ukraine updates: US trains Ukrainian forces in Germany,” Deutsche Welle, 16 January 2023


IN BRIEF

ESTONIA
Ministry of Foreign Affairs proposed to form contiguous zone up to 24 nautical miles
On 17 January, ERR reported on Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu statement on establishing a “contiguous zone” in the maritime area. Reinsalu stated that through setting up the zone Estonia will be able to implement its legislation “up to 24 nautical miles” from the territorial baseline. This will help the security and guard the environment present in the zone. Apart from this the zone also has economic benefit to monitor customs, tax, immigration, and to impose sanctions on Russia on violation. According to UNCLOS, a contiguous zone for any can be only up to 12 nautical miles from outer limit. Estonia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said that Finland which does not have one, but Estonia can extend in the west to 24 without affecting its state borders. (“Estonian foreign ministry wants to extend controlled maritime area,” ERR, 17 January 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
India and France conduct joint naval exercise in Arabian Sea
On 16 January, India’s Ministry of Defence released a statement on initiating the bilateral naval exercise between India and France. The exercise known as Varuna started in the Western Seaboard, where stealth destroyer INS Chennai, “Guided missile frigate INS Teg, maritime patrol aircraft P-8I and Dornier, integral helicopters and MiG29K fighter aircraft,” took part and France navy was represented by “Charles De Gaulle, frigates FS Forbin and Provence, support vessel FS Marne and maritime patrol aircraft Atlantique.” This exercise aims to excel war-fighting, interoperability skills in the maritime domain to ensure peace and stability. (“France And India Kick Off VARUNA 2023 Naval Exercise,” Navalnews, 17 January 2023)

THE UK
Government blocks Scotland’s gender reform bill
On 16 January, the UK blocked the legislation on legal process to change gender passed by the Scottish parliament resulting in a clash between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Nicola Strugeon. She said: “This is a full-frontal attack on our democratically elected Scottish parliament and its ability to make its own decisions on devolved matters.” The move was observed to be cutting across UK’s Equalities Act of 2010, one of the reasons behind the block. Previously the Scottish Parliament approved to lower the age limit for “gender recognition” to 16 without medical analysis, this was countered by the UK government as it was viewed as bringing two set of rules within. (George Parker and Lukanyo Mnyanda, “Sunak in constitutional clash with Sturgeon over gender reform bill,” FT, 17 January 2023)

REGIONAL
Western banks at rifle as they try to exit Russia
On 16 January, FT reported on the Western banks attempt to step out of Russia being barred by law passed by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The law introduced by Putin does not allow companies listed under the “unfriendly countries” to complete deals without his approval. This includes close to 45 companies which have been made to stay, while few have left at huge cost. The reason behind the strain on the Western banks operating in Russia is due to the influence of some “powerful Russians” in the entity. One of the examples was HSBC, which agreed to sell its subsidiary to Russia’s Expobank to exit but now has been withheld as Expobank has to get approved from Putin. In the other case, SocGen, French bank with a huge exposure to Russia was able to exit through selling to one of richest Russian’s Potanin, but was forced to take EUR 3.3 billion, with EUR 1.5 billion loss. (“Western banks struggle to exit Russia after Putin intervention,” FT, 16 January 2023)

ITALY
Italy’s most influential gangster in 1980’s arrested
On 16 January, FT reported on the arrest of Sicilian mafia boss, Matteo Messina Denaro aged 60 by the Italian police after 30 years of search. Denaro known as “powerful bosses” of Cosa Nostra a criminal organisation that was active during late 1980’s to early 1990’s through “deadly bombings” in Rome, Florence and Milan. The last three decades Denaro has been escaping the arrest despite the arrest of his associates. Being one of influential gangster was convicted with life sentences, homicides, car bombings murders, emerged as one of the gangster force in international drugs trade in Italy. (Amy Kazmin, “Italy’s most-wanted mafia boss Matteo Messina Denaro arrested in Sicily,” FT, 16 January 2023)


16 January 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #411

Ukraine war: Day 325 & 326 I In Focus: Germany to expand coal mining

In Brief: Petr Pavel wins the first round of Czech presidential elections

Photo : Reuters/BBC


EM Daily Focus
By Allen Joe Mathew
Germany moves ahead with plan to expand coal mining

What happened?
On 16 January, German police announced they had removed all climate activists from Lützerath, a village in Germany’s North Rhine Westphalia state. The village is to be demolished for the expansion of an open-cast lignite coal mine run by the energy company RWE. The German police began evicting the activists on 11 January and removed 300 protesters from the village. 

On 14 January, clashes broke out between the two groups leaving 20 protesters and 70 policemen injured. Greta Thunberg too extended her support to the activists by joining them on 14 January and leading the protest.

What is the background?
The village Lützerath is located in Germany’s western region and is known for its coal mines. Lützerath is on the land owned by RWE, and the company plans on expanding the Garzweiler II mine, to include the village area. The Garzweiler II spread over 35 square kilometres, is a lignite mine which is the most polluting form of coal. 

In October 2022, the government run by the Green Party reached an agreement with RWE authorising the demolition of the village, Lutzerath. The government's conditions included that RWE leaves out other villages from its expansion plan and prepone the coal phase-out to 2030 from the earlier date of 2038. RWE agreed to these terms which the Greens projected as a huge victory. A Green Party spokesperson Martin Lechtape said: "We were able to save five villages and three farms from being destroyed, spare 500 people a forced resettlement and bring forward the coal phase-out by eight years." 

Who are the activists?
The activists are from various groups fighting against climate change. This includes the popular Fridays for Future, and Extinction Rebellion among other local groups such as Lützerath Lebt (Lützerath Lives), and Aller Dörfer bleiben (All Villages Stay). Many activists have been residing in the village for the past two years, trying to prevent its demolition.  The activists demand the complete suspension of all operations currently being carried out by RWE and an assurance that the coal beneath the village will not be excavated. The demands are based on studies published by the international research platform Coal Transitions which stated that Germany has more coal stocks available for use than it requires.

What does the government say?
The government says that the extra coal is needed to secure Germany’s energy requirements, due to the energy crisis caused because of the Russia-Ukraine war. RWE says Germany would need these coal deposits by the end of 2023, for the winter months. The government and RWE also spoke out against the activists’ claim that this would increase emissions stating EU's caps on emissions will lead to any extra carbon emissions being offset.

Reference
Thunberg joins march on German village in protest against coal mine expansion,” Reuters, 15 January 2023
Emily McGarvey, “
Lützerath: German police oust climate activists after clashes near coal mine,” BBC, 16 January 2023
Lützerath: Protesters, police clash near German coal mine,” Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2023


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

CZECH REPUBLIC
Petr Pavel wins the first round of presidential elections
On 14 January, General Petr Pavel won in the first round of the Czech presidential elections with 35.39 per cent of the total votes. Pavel defeated Andrej Babis who got 35 per cent of the votes. Pavel, a former NATO military committee chairman said: “It's such a close result that I can already see the hard work for us ahead of the second round.” Babis said that he was “delighted” with the results and congratulated Pavel but then went on to criticize him saying: “I don't understand why he's running.” The two will now move on to the second round of elections as none of the candidates received a majority of votes. (Sarah Palmer and AP “Czech Presidential elections: Petr Pavel scores narrow win over Andrej Babis in first round,” Euronews, 14 January 2023)

GREECE
Mitsotakis announces for spring general elections
On 15 January, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that the government would hold parliamentary elections in the spring, specifically from “April onwards.” Greece would go into elections under a proportional representation system which would also entail a second round of voting. This comes as Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for 18 June, with the government against amping up its rhetoric against Greece in the last few months and warning the country with a missile unless they “stay calm.” Mitsotakis said that the elections would be held at a point when they would be “practically” exhausting their four-year term which is said to end in July. (Nektaria Stamouli “Greece to hold elections in spring, Mitsotakis says,” Politico, 14 January 2023)

PORTUGAL
Teacher’s union protest demanding increase in pay
On 15 January, the Union of All Education Professionals (STOP), a Portuguese teacher's union, staged a protest in Lisbon demanding better pay and working conditions. Thousands of people took part in the protests and many more joined the movement by going on strike. The union plans to keep the pressure high on the government and is gearing up for a nationwide demonstration on 11 February. One of the demands of the protesters has been the removal of Education Minister Joao Costa. Costa says the protests are: “atypical, disproportionate and radical in the middle of a negotiation process.” (“Portugal: Thousands of teachers strike, demanding better pay,” Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2023)

SPAIN
Health workers stage protest against government's negligence 
On 15 January, thousands of health workers took to the streets to protest against Madrid’s regional government accusing it of dismantling the city’s public health care system. The protestors marched with signs saying “S.O.S. Public Healthcare” and “Stop Privatization.” The protestors highlighted the shortage of healthcare staff and criticized the Madrid authorities for favouring private healthcare providers. Madrid spends the least on primary health care in Spain despite its high per capita income. (“Spanish health workers march against Madrid regional govt,” Independent.co.uk, 15 January 

TURKEY
Government aims to increase the capacity of short-range ballistic missiles
On 14 January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey aims to increase the target range of the Tayfun short-range ballistic missiles to 1,000 kilometres. The Tayfun missile was successfully tested in October and currently has a range of 565 kilometres. Erdoğan said: “National matters are above politics and should remain so. If we have achieved gains in the Mediterranean, the Aegean and the Black Seas, we must protect this together, without exception.” Previously Erdoğan claimed that these missile tests are “scaring” the Greeks who have been arming islands near the Turkish coast. (“Türkiye vows to boost domestic ballistic missile’s range to 1,000 km,” Daily Sabah, 15 January 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Turkey’s Operation Claw-Lock takes out close to 500 PKK terrorists 
On 15 January, Turkish National Defence Ministry stated that 506 PKK terrorists have taken down since Operation Claw-Lock commenced in April. Operation Claw-Lock was launched by Turkey targeting PKK bases in the Northern Iraq regions of Metina, Zap and Avasin-Basyan. The ministry also conducted a media tour of these regions where reporters were informed that 575 PKK hideouts were destroyed. The reporters saw PKK hideouts being targeted from the Iraq-Turkey border. (“Over 500 terrorists neutralised in Türkiye's Operation Claw-Lock so far,” TRT World, 15 January 2023)

Ties with Turkey can not be normalised until the occupation ends says the Syrian Foreign Minister
On 14 January, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad said that ties with Turkey can be normalized once the Turkish military withdraws from Syria. Turkey has placed its troops in Northern Syria providing assistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the political and armed opposition. This comes as talks between the defence ministers of Turkey and Syria met in Russia in December 2022. The two reportedly discussed Syria’s demand for the withdrawal of troops from the region and a withdrawal of support to three key opposition factions. (“Syrian FM: No Normal Ties with Türkiye without End to Occupation,” Asharq al-Awsat, 14 January 2023)

British-Iranian Alireza Akbari executed on the charges of corruption and espionage 
On 14 January, Mizan reported that former Iranian Defence Minister Alireza Akbari was executed on the charges of corruption and espionage. Akbari’s execution drew criticisms from the UK due to his dual British-Iranian citizenship. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the execution a “callous and cowardly act, carried out by a barbaric regime.” The UK also sanctioned Irans’s Prosecutor General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri. The sanctions include freezing his assets and a UK travel ban. Additionally, the UK has also recalled its ambassador to Iran Simon Shercliff with UK Foreign Secretary saying: “This will not stand unchallenged and we will be summoning the Iranian Charge d’Affaires to make clear our disgust at Iran’s actions. Our thoughts are with Mr Akbari’s family.” (Aoife Walsh & Caroline Hawley “Alireza Akbari: Widespread outrage after British-Iranian executed,” BBC, 14 January 2023; “Iran: Foreign Secretary Statement on Execution of Alireza Akbari,” gov.uk, 14 January 2023; and “UK sanctions Iranian Prosecutor General following execution of Alireza Akbari,” gov.uk, 14 January 2023)

CLIMATE
Activists protest against the participation of major oil firms over climate debate
On 15 January, over 100 climate activists took to the streets of Davos protesting against major oil firms ahead of the World Economic Forum (WEF). The activists have accused major oil firms attending the summit of taking over the climate debate. The protestors are of the view that oil companies’ involvement in the WEF will lead to them pushing their interests. The WEF commencing on 16 January is said to discuss global threats which include climate change. Chevron, Saudi Aramco and BP are some of the oil companies attending the WEF. (Maha El Dahan “Davos 2023: Climate activists protest over big oil hijacking debate,” Reuters, 15 January 2023)


War in Ukraine: Day 325 & 326
By Padmashree Anandhan 

War on the Ground
On 14 January, Kherson’s Regional Military Administration Head reported on Russian attacks in Kherson. As per the report, Russia had struck 66 times on the residential buildings and people using “artillery, MLRS, mortars, and tanks.” 

On 14 January, Ukraine’s military intelligence reported on the potential capacity of Russian forces. It stated that Russia’s efforts to “reorganise” its military-industrial complex and economy are seen as evidence of shifting to martial law. They also show the need for strengthening its operations, which seem to be underplayed by the troops present in the occupied areas.

On 15 January, Ukraine’s YASNO has claimed for a massive energy deficit due to the Russian attacks on one of the thermal power plants. According to the Director: “Distribution system operators must adhere to these restrictions in order not to deteriorate the condition of the system. Therefore, emergency shutdowns can be used.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 January, RT reported on Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin comments on “local ceasefires.” Observing the prolonging war situation on ground and slim chances for a peace deal, Kalin stressed on “local ceasefires and small localized de-escalations.” He added: “What Russia wants is to be respected as a major player and to [avoid] having NATO in their backyard. Russia is interested in a new international architecture, security guarantees.”

On 15 January, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin commented on the state of Russian economy. According to Putin, the economy was stabilizing better comparing the economic indicators. Of which unemployment was observed to be low and inflation “lower than expected.” He added that inflation is expected to slow down from 11.9 per cent to five per cent. Apart from the economy, Putin also gave an assessment on the Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. He said: “The dynamics are positive. Everything is developing within the framework of the Defense Ministry’s and the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s plan.” The same was confirmed by the Russian Ministry Defence on continued fighting in Soledar and a successive offensive.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 January, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the phone call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured the government’s decision to support Ukraine with “Challenger 2” tanks. In a statement: “….UK Government would be working intensively with international partners to deliver rapidly the kind of support which will allow Ukraine to press their advantage, win this war and secure a lasting peace.”

On 14 January, Germany’s Federal Government released the new list of military support to Ukraine. It includes, “four mine clearing tanks, four mobile and protected mine clearing systems, 10 border protection vehicles.” Apart from this, 40 Marder infantry vehicles, patriot air defence system, 120 heating systems and industrial stocks were also listed. 

On 15 January, UK Ministry of Defence in its daily intelligence update observed Russia’s move to increase the age limit of “military conscription” from 27 to 30 as a way to reduce the public discontent. Although Russia’s move is expected to increase the troop capacity by 30 per cent, the change in the age limit avoids calling for a another mobilisation order as per the ministry.

On 15 January, Belarus’s Security Council First Deputy State Secretary Pavel Muraveyko, announced the air force drills to be held between Belarus and Russia. According to Muraveyko the exercise is expected to be defensive involving “..aerial reconnaissance, deflecting air strikes, air cover of important objects and communications,” for two weeks till 01 February.

References 
Херсонська область. Інформація щодо ворожих обстрілів за минулу добу 13 січня.,” Ярослав Янушевич / Херcонська ОДА (ОВА)/Telegram, 14 January 2023
observations of the military intelligence of Ukraine,” The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 14 January 2023
Large deficit of energy in Ukraine after Russian attack – YASNO,” Ukrinform, 15 January 2023
Ankara calls for ‘local ceasefires’ in Ukraine,” RT, 14 January 2023
Russian economy is stable – Putin,” RT, 15 January 2023
Putin provides assessment of Ukraine campaign,” RT, 15 January 2023
Commentary to the Rossiya TV channel,” Kremlin.ru, 13 January 2023
PM call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 14 January 2023,” Gov.uk, 14 January 2023
Military support for Ukraine,” bundesregierung.de, 14 January 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 January 2023,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 15 January 2023

05 January 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #402

Ukraine war: Day 315 I In Focus: China in the Baltic region I In Brief: META sued for data protectio

Photo : The JamesTown Foundation


In Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan


Report review
China in the Baltic region: Four takeaways

On December 2022, the Jamestown Foundation released a report on "Between Brussels and Beijing: The Transatlantic Response to the Chinese Presence in the Baltic Sea Region." It focuses on the increasing sphere of influence of China in the Baltic, possible security challenges ahead due to China’s presence for the Baltic States, provides the transatlantic view’s the role of China and recommends what posture the US, the EU and the Baltic must hold. Following are the four takeaways of the report.


Four takeaways 
First, China’s increased Baltic presence in the infrastructure, supply chain, technology, media, and language. China’s has played its economy statecraft in terms of investing in critical infrastructure, acquiring specific technologies through Lithuania’s natural resources, and supply chains such as owning shares in Estonia’s air, rail and seaports. The BRI initiative is another dual-hit factor which brings China closer to the Baltic as it offers shortest route of trade to the Baltic and is made possible connecting maritime route, Eurasian bridge and a direct access to Belarus and Russia through Lithuania. Apart from economy and trade, China also uses its human resources in form of language centres and keeps check on the student’s family in China to ensure information collection. The media house Xinhua has increased its branches to 170 outside China which is influential in impacting societal groups, public campaigns, and national languages.

Second, a Baltic wary of security risk but blinded by economic cooperation. Compared to Estonia, and Latvia, Lithuania is seen to be sound for Taiwan which has slight disturbance in its relations with China. In terms of sharing economic intelligence, cooperation in infrastructure, transportation and commercial opportunities in trade and technology has helped boom the Baltic-China relations. Competing with China in the economic landscape is a no-go area for a small region like Baltic. Whereas, in perceiving China as a security challenge, Baltic’s posture has NATO, EU and the US along to support, but the Russian war in Crimean and Ukraine has by default made Baltic to see Russia as a prime threat over China. Economic dependency over China, and Russia-China politico military relations has been under debate in Baltic, but China as a primary threat to security seems to be in the second.

Third, possible security challenge due to digital, cyber, media, data exchange and maritime link. Estonia, Latvia Lithuania’s highest fear on closeness with China is over its 5G, digital communication, the lack in infrastructure to track China’s cyber hacking, exchange of “sensitive economic data” and its involvement in the maritime link in Latvia and Lithuania. The deployment of China’s Navy in the Baltic Sea is not seen as probable security threat but the Baltic states focus lie in the non-traditional, politics, and economic security.

Fourth, missed focus of Transatlantic. The US’s strategy in the Baltic has not been towards looking at China as the threat but, Russia. China has viewed only as a political and a economic challenge, but its lacks in estimating the extent of Chinese involvement in Baltic’s infrastructure. The engagement has grown to a magnitude to affect the key arial and maritime infrastructure which might in-turn pose a security challenge for the transatlantic. The Jamestown foundation in its report recommends the US to involve in closer analysis of China’s “ownership” in the infrastructure and upcoming investments in the Baltic to secure it from China and prioritise the EU unity to ensure a stable security in the wider transatlantic.
 
Reference

Between Brussels and Beijing: The Transatlantic Response to the Chinese Presence in the Baltic Sea Region,” jamestown.org2022


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew

FRANCE
Real Estate Market faces downturn at the start of 2023
On 03 January, a French real estate agency Century 21, released its report for 2022 on France’s real estate market. The report found that there has been a slowdown in the housing market. The President of Century 21, Charles Marinakis said: “We are seeing a market reversal as a result of a significant slowdown in the housing market which had gained popularity in the wake of the Covid-related lockdowns.” The housing market peaked in the summer of 2022 and from then on prices have fallen drastically. In Paris, the prices fell by 2.4 per cent in 2022 when compared with 2021, the report stated. Another report on the distribution of housing loans, by the Banque of France, released on 28 December 2022 also pointed to the same trend. It stated: “There has been a relative slowdown in the second half of the year, which somewhat standardized the supply of home loans, following the exceptional growth in recent years caused by very low interest rates.” 
(Veronique Choron, “The changing landscape of France's real estate market,” Le Monde, 03 January 2023)

ITALY
Ruling Party leader says coalition partners should unite under a single party
On 04 January, Forza Italia’s leader, Silvio Berlusconi announced his desire to see the unification of the three main ruling parties of Italy. The three allies are the President's, Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia, Matteo Salvini's League and Berlusconi'e Forza Italia. These three parties combined are in a coalition that forms the Italian government. Berlusconi's suggestion comes at a time when the European elections are scheduled to be held in 2024. Meloni’s party being the strongest in Italy, she is not keen on uniting the three parties into one, but looking ahead at the elections in Brussels this can be an opportunity for a wider right-wing consolidation. Brussel's politics is vastly different from that of Rome. Either way, Meloni has declared her intention of retaining power as the head of the right-wing parties, it remains to be seen what decision she would take. 
(Olivier Tosseri, “Giorgia Meloni tentée par la fusion des droites italiennes pour peser plus à Bruxelles,” Les Echos, 04 January 2023)
 
THE UK
Rishi Sunak lists 2023 priority plan
On 04 January, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gave a speech listing his top priorities for 2023. The major points were on Economy, Healthcare and Immigration. On the Economy, Sunak said that the government plans to halve the rate of inflation. Secondly, the government will aim at creating better-paid jobs across the country. Third, improvement in public services, by focusing on reducing the national debt burden. Fourth, on healthcare, he spoke of reducing NHS waiting lists by March 2023. Fifth and final, on immigration, he said tougher laws will be enacted that detain and remove illegal migrants crossing over in small boats. 
(“Prime Minister outlines his five key priorities for 2023,” gov.uk, 04 January 2023)

THE UK
BBC report on analysis of post-Brexit UK 
On 02 January, BBC gave an analysis of how the UK’s economy has fared post-Brexit. The report says that the UK is behind on every measurable metric. Some of these could be attributed to the pandemic-induced challenges, but when compared with Europe, the UK remains an outsider with markedly low-quality governance. The many promises of Brexit have been busted by the reality check that is now happening. The only companies that have profited from this situation are those that operate in the areas where previous companies have moved out of the UK. Since the UK's import duty and protectionist policies came into force, many companies are not willing to export their products to the UK, and this artificially created situation is not sustainable for a long time. There is a shortage of labour in every industry, and inflation has hit the country hard with prices of consumer goods shooting up. All this has negatively affected the production capacity of companies. Four per cent is the reduction in UK’s economic output according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. The other major issue is that of relations with Northern Ireland. Brexit promised to resolve the trade problems that existed, but the condition remains the same and more uncertain. The UK has been in the process of trying to create new laws, moving away from legacy EU laws. Due to Brexit being driven by political interests, it is near impossible to have sensible policies come to the forefront. The writer says this will take some years.
(Douglas Fraser, “Brexit: The scorecard two years on,” BBC, 02 January 2023)

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
META to pay EUR 390 million for breaching EU’s data protection laws
On 04 January, Irish Data Protection Commission slapped a fine of EUR 390 million on META, the parent entity owning Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram along with a host of other internet companies. The Commission, in its report, stated that the method used by META in taking consent for collecting data from people for posing targeted ads on Facebook and Instagram violated EU laws. The case includes Facebook and Instagram. META has been ordered to change the process of acquiring data and been given three months to do so. The Commission stated in its judgment that companies do not have the right to force their users to consent. META released a statement saying it feels disappointed by the judgement, and this will affect its personalized targeted advertising. The case was brought to the Commission in 2018 by a prominent privacy rights activist, Max Schrems.
( Chris Vallance, “Meta fined €390m over use of data for targeted ads,” BBC, 04 January 2023)
 
ECONOMY
Relief as France sees inflation ease during December
On 04 January, the French National Statistics body, INSEE released its preliminary data on inflation during December 2023. The inflation rate fell to 6.7 per cent from 7.1 per cent in November 2023. The French Minister of the Economy, Finance and Recovery Bruno Le Maire issued a statement saying, 2023 will bring a fall in inflation and prices are set to stabilize. The major reason for the slowdown in inflation can be attributed to the fall in energy prices, which peaked at 18.4 per cent in November 2023 and have come down to 15.1 per cent in December 2023. The Food price inflation meanwhile has remained stable at 12.1 per cent.
(William Horobin, “French Inflation Unexpectedly Slows, Easing Pressure on ECB, ” Bloomberg, 04 January 2023)
 
REGIONAL
Czech Republic gets first Commissioner for Roma Affairs Commission
On 04 January, the Czech government appointed Romni Lucie Fukova to the post of government Commissioner for Roma community affairs. The post had been created in December 2022, for addressing issues faced by the Roma community. They comprise 2.5 percent of the population in the Czech Republic. The Commissioner’s aim is to uplift the historically underrepresented and disadvantaged minority present in the country. Fukuoka after her appointment said her major goals were to create educational and professional training opportunities targeting the most vulnerable among Roma. The majority of the Roma consider this a step in the right direction. The Czech Republic now becomes the second country after Slovakia to have a commission for the Roma community. 
(Lubos Palata, “Czech Republic appoints its first Roma commissioner,” Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2023)
 
European Single Market celebrates 30 years since founding
On 01 January, the EU celebrated 30 years since the establishment of the European Single Market. The Single Market came into being on 01 January 1993 with the plan for greater integration of the European countries, and ease of business. It also succeeded in the free movement of people, services, goods and capital across the member countries. In 30 years it has been able to drive growth and cultivate healthy competitiveness among the members. The Single Market rules have helped member countries to work together efficiently towards multiple common goals. The press release from the EU Commission lists the coordinated response against COVID-19, the handling of the Ukraine war, the rules for environment, labour, personal data and human rights protection, and the policies for transitioning to a Green Economy as the major achievements.
(“European Single Market is turning 30,” ec.europa.eu, 02 January 2023)
 
NATO debates enforcement of defence spending by member countries
On 03 January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with the German Press Agency, Deutsche Presse-Agentur spoke out on the fissures among NATO member countries. There is an ongoing debate on tightening the norms to make two per cent of GDP the minimum for defence expenditure by member countries. There are disagreements on how to reach this goal, whether to enforce it or let countries gradually increase their spending reaching the two per cent of GDP target by 2024. The war in Ukraine has pushed this issue to the forefront. Stoltenberg is to lead the negotiations among NATO members as Chairman of the North Atlantic Council. He says, “NATO is there to ensure that a conflict like the one in Ukraine does not escalate beyond Ukraine. For that we need credible deterrence and defense and that is why we need to invest more in our security. As the world becomes more dangerous, we need to invest more to prevent war.” The next summit is scheduled to happen in Vilnius, Lithuania from 11 July to 12 July 2023. The countries supporting stricter regulations are UK, Poland, Lithuania and other Eastern Alliance countries. Germany, Canada and Belgium are viewed as the main opponents to the proposition. 
(“NATO threatens new dispute over defense spending,” faz.net, 03 January 2023 )


War in Ukraine: Day 315
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 04 January, Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi announced that the World Bank is providing USD 50 million in aid to boost the energy efficiency of grain elevators. Mykola Solskyi said: “$50 million - this amount will be spent on a program under which all grain elevators can obtain new power generators for a total sum of up to UAH 5 million, or switch to LPG [ boilers].” He added that the cost of a boiler or a power generator will be partly reimbursed. 

On 04 January, ABC News published an interview with Ukraine’s military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov where he claimed that more strikes deeper into Russian territory are likely to take place. In the interview, Budanov did not outline if Ukraine will conduct these strikes and also said that any such confirmation will be done after the war ended. He also spoke about the situation on the ground, dwindling stocks of Russian weaponry, Russia’s nuclear arsenal, and US military aid to Ukraine. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 04 January, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova dismissed Italy’s role as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Zakharova said that Itlay cannot act as a mediator as has taken an anti-Russian stance since the “special operation” began. She added: “It is known that Italy, along with an extensive range of weapons and military equipment, supplies anti-personnel mines to Kiev.” Zakharova claimed that countries are willing to participate in the negotiation talks only for mercenary reasons. 

On 04 January, Russian Armed Forces Main Military-Political Department First Deputy Head Lieutenant General Sergei Sevryukov claimed that the attack on Makeyevka happened due to the increased usage of mobile phones on the base. Sevryukov said that the increased usage allowed Ukrainians to pinpoint the location of the soldiers and launched the strike. He also said that the total number of casualties due to the attack has risen to 89. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 04 January, Poland Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that Poland will be buying the second batch of US Abrams tanks. Blaszczak signed a USD 1.4 billion deal which outlines the purchase of 116 M1A1 Abrams battle tanks song with the necessary equipment and logistics. Blaszczak said: “We are strengthening Poland’s armed forces, we are strengthening the iron fist of the Polish army in order to increase the power to deter the aggressor.” 

On 04 January, Latvia’s National Electronic Mass Media Council (NEPLP) Chairman Ivars Āboliņš said that Russian-language media is still prominent despite the ban of 121 Russian channels being banned. Āboliņš said: “In Latvia, there are 252 retransmitted media, of which 127 are also available in Russian, and 42 in Latvian.” He said that to encourage Latvian media, the NEPLP has developed a national strategy which will prioritise the promotion and development of Latvian language media in the country’s informative space. 

On 04 January, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will deliver AMX-10RC light combat tanks to Ukraine. while no further details have been released, Elysee Palace has said that the delivery reaffirms France’s “unwavering support” to Ukraine until the war ends. The AMX-10RC is a light combat tank on wheels which was commissioned for the French Army in 1981 and deployed in Afghanistan, Sahel and the first Gulf War. 

On 04 January, ISW reported that the Russian Ministry of Defence’s claim that the use of mobile phones by servicemen caused the attack shows the inability of the Russian Military to address its systemic failures. The ISW said that while cell phone usage might have aided the Ukrainians, it is not the sole reason for the strike. It holds the Russian command responsible for the deployment of over 100 servicemen to non-tactical positions near an ammunition depot within firing range of the frontline. 

On 04 January, ISW reported that the dependency of Russian forces on poorly trained mobilised personnel for positions of leadership instead of experienced office cadres is one of the main reasons for the poor performance of the units. This comes as DPR Head Denis Pushilin said that in the recent Makiivka, few of the personnel killed were mobilized, servicemen. Russian dependency also adds to the heavy casualties within the units which contributes to decreasing morale, and poor operational security. The ISW adds that officers with minimal training do not have the ability to make critical tactical and operational decisions which adds to the degeneration of Russian combat power.    

On 04 January, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called the recent attacks of Russia on Ukraine an “attack on humanity” during a joint press conference in Lisbon. Talking about Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 31 December on energy infrastructure, Baerbock said that the European community should stand with Ukraine, international law and the Charter of the UN till the end. She also called for common unity and effective decision-making in the EU to help Ukraine swiftly and not let individual countries delay this process. 


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 04 January, AP News reported that the increasing usage of advanced drone technology in the Ukraine conflict will usher in a new age of warfare. The article outlines how the prolongation of the war will lead to both sides using advanced drone technologies equipped with AI. Also called “killer drones”, these types of combat drones are being developed by countries to deal with targets effectively and reduce human error. In the Ukraine conflict, while both sides have not used such drones, Ukraine’s Digital Transformation minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that their development is “a logical and inevitable next step.” Countries such as Israel, the US, Turkey, Poland, China, and Russia currently have semi-autonomous drones which require some human interference but all are looking into the development of fully autonomous drones for combat purposes.

On 03 January, UN Secratary-General Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq said that the UN has not received any communication from Ukraine regarding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace summit proposal. Haq said that the UN is not organizing any such summit and said that any further developments will be announced. Haq also said that the recent attacks on Russian soldiers in Makeyevka highlight the importance of bringing the conflict to an end.     

References
"
World Bank to provide $50M for power generators for Ukrainian grain elevators,” Ukrinform, 04 January 2023
Britt Clennett, Dragana Jovanovic, and Tatiana Rymarenko “Expect more strikes 'deeper and deeper' into Russia, Ukraine’s spy chief tells ABC News,” ABC News, 04 January 2023
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the idea of Italy's mediation in the settlement on Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 04 December 2023
Statement by First Deputy Chief of Main Military-Political Directorate of Russian Armed Forces Lieutenant General Sergei Sevryukov,” eng.mil.ru, 04 January 2023
Poland signs deal to buy 2nd batch of U.S. Abrams tanks,” AP News, 04 January 2023
Media watchdog: Russian output dominates Latvia's information space,” end.lsm.lv, 04 January 2023
Speech by Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at Portuguese Ambassador Conference,” auswaertiges-amt.d, 04 January 2023
Macron announces the delivery of French combat tanks to Ukraine,” Les Echos, 04 January 2023
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 4, 2023,” understandingwar.org, 04 January 2023 
Frank Bajak and Hanna Arhirova “Drone advances in Ukraine could bring dawn of killer robots,” AP News, 04 January 2022
Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General,” press.un.org, 03 January 2023 


04 January 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #401

Ukraine war: Day 314 I In Focus: Pope Benedict XVI dies at 95

Photo : the national news/AFP


EM Daily Focus
By Madhura S Mahesh

Pope Benedict XVI dies at 95: Conservative Christianity, Scandal and Resignation

On 31 December, Former Pope Benedict XVI died in the Vatican of old age. Known as Pope Emeritus, the 95-year-old Former Pope assumed office for eight years and was famous for his decision to resign from the papacy in 2013. His funeral led by Pope Francis will take place on 05 January. Currently, his body lies in the state of St Peter’s Basilica for the public to pay respect to. Pope Francis highlighted the work of Benedict XVI and said: “With deep feeling, we recall his person, so noble, so gentle, and we feel in the heart so much gratitude.”
 
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni conveyed sympathies to Pope Francis and said: “He spoke and will continue to speak, to the hearts and minds of people with the spiritual, cultural, and intellectual depth of his Magisterium.” 
US President Joe Biden offered his condolences: “I had the privilege of spending time with Pope Benedict at the Vatican in 2011 and will always remember his generosity and welcome as well as our meaningful conversation.”

Who was Benedict XVI?
Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI previously known as Joseph Aloysius Ratzinger was born on 16 April 1927 in Marktl, Bavaria near the German-Austrian border, where in 1941 he was forced to enlist in the Hitler Youth during World War II. Born into a Catholic family, Ratzinger was formally ordained into the Roman Catholic Church in 1951. 
In 1962 he was appointed an advisor to the Second Vatican Church and was also a theologist at the universities of Bonn, Munster and Freising. In 1977, Ratzinger was appointed as the Archbishop of Munich and was appointed as the head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) in 1982 by Pope John-Paul IV. 

After the death of Pope John-Paul II in 2005, he was appointed as the Pope and held this position till 11 February 2013 when he resigned from the papacy citing old age. 

Three issues
First, the return of conservative Christian values. After he assumed the papacy in 2005 at the age of 78, he assumed the name, Benedict XVI. He was a staunch conservative catholic priest who projected rigid views on theological and social issues. His three encyclicals criticise atheism, call for a rethink of the functioning of the international economy, and address the dwindling faith in Christianity.  During his time as Pope, he worked towards bringing conservative values back into the fold of Catholicism which was started by his predecessor Pope John Paul II. He introduced policies and ideas that often clashed with the reforms of the 1962-1965 Second Vatican Council which was instrumental in the modernization of the Church. One of his policies was re-introducing the Latin Mass without the restrictions placed on by previous popes. 

Second, staunch action against child abuse cases. During his papacy, many child abuse cases were reported which led to his apologizing multiple times. In his tenure in the CDF, he looked into the various child abuse cases and worked towards removing the accused priests swiftly. This spilt over in his role as Pope where he effectively dealt with accused priests and defrocked them if found guilty. As reported by AP one of the main cases handled by him was that of the Reverend Marcial Maciel who was accused of raping young seminarians and had extensive documented proof of his victims and abuses. After he was appointed as Pope, he sentenced Maciel to a lifetime of penance and prayer.  

Third, first pope to resign since 1415. On 11 February 2013, Benedict XVI became the first Pope to resign from the papacy 600 years after Gregory XII. This was unique as previous popes have all died in their papacy. Benedict said that his old age is impeding his duties as Pope which involves visiting catholic churches around the world. In his speech, he said that he will continue to preach the teachings of Jesus and live a quiet life. The latter proved to be false as he then became the face of traditionalists who were unhappy with the liberal policies of Pope Francis, Benedict’s successor. 
 
References

Pope Francis hails 'noble and kind' Benedict as world leaders pay tribute,” The National, 01 January 2023
Statement from President Joe Biden on the Death of Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI,” whitehouse.gov, 31 December 2022
President Meloni’s condolence message on the passing of Benedict XVI,” governo.it, 31 December 2022
Benedict: The pope who resigned from the papacy,” BBC, 31 December 2022
Nicole Winfield “While blamed, Benedict fought sex abuse more than past popes,” AP News, 01 January 2023 
Nicole Winfield “Benedict XVI, first pope to resign in 600 years, dies at 95,” AP News, 01 January 2023 


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew

FRANCE
Five challenges ahead for Macron in 2023
On 01 January, Les Echos reported on the challenges ahead for French President Emmanuel Macron in 2023. First, the issue over the pension reform, which has been a drain on the state’s finances and needs immediate reform according to the government. Raising the retirement age to 65, in line with the Touraine law. The vote support from the Les Republicans will be the decider. Second, reduction in unemployment insurance to 25 per cent and 40 per cent in the case of a fall in the unemployment rate below six per cent (The current being 7.3 per cent). This tops the list of priorities as unions pressurize the government to implement reforms. Third, controlling the purchasing power. France had put two measures in place, a cap on fuel price electricity prices. The government had introduced a fuel allowance of EUR 100 and an energy check of EUR 100 or 200 for households, which are likely to be withdrawn. Fourth, Laws related to immigration have been proposed and the bill “to control immigration, improve immigration” is being circulated among various state councils for review. Fifth, increased investment in renewable energies. France, to tackle the energy crisis has worked its Renewable Energy Act and proposes the construction of multiple onshore and offshore wind farms. The Act also introduces plans for the installation of solar panels in outdoor car parking spaces.
(Alain Ruello, Gregoire Poussielgue, and Jacques Paugam, “Macron's hot issues for 2023,” Les Echos, 01 January 2023)

GERMANY
Kiel Canal resumes operations after two weeks 
On 04 January, The Kiel Canal was reopened after it had been closed due to an oil spill on 21 December. It is a man-made canal connecting the North and Baltic Seas which was closed due to an oil pipeline leak near Brunsbuttel port in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. According to a Kiel-based think tank, closing the canal for two weeks had cost Germany EUR 1.6 million per day as it was the key artificial shipping lane. Germany’s Environment Minister, Tobias Goldschmidt lauded the cleaning efforts and said: “The cleaning work in Brunsbüttel is progressing well. Thanks to a great team effort, the spread of oil in the Elbe and the North Sea and thus an environmental disaster could be prevented."
(Roshini Majumdar, “Germany: Key shipping lane reopens after shutdown,” Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2022)

THE UK
70 companies on four-day workweek trial
On 06 June 2022, a pilot program implementing a four-day workweek began in the UK. 70 companies took part in the program which included 3,000 employees ended on 06 December 2022. In the mid 1800's, six day work week was the norm, which changed in 1930's after prolonged campaigning to a five-day workweek. The current proposal for four-day work week is aimed at increasing the productivity at 80 per cent. Along with the UK, Spain and Italy are on the front to implement the four-day work scheme. Employees who underwent the program reported that their productivity increased and their overall work-life balance was better.  Companies who have found it feasible to stick with the four-day workweek have decided to extend the plan into the future. According to one manager, the company is able to produce 101 per cent of the work, in 80 per cent of the time. 
 ("Four-day working week: How we got here - and where next," BBC, 03 January 2023; Emma Simpson, “Four-day working week: How we got here - and where next,” BBC, 03 January 2023)

Rail workers continue to strikes increase in wages after new year
On 03 January, UK rail workers launched a fresh set of strikes shutting down over half of the UK’s railway lines despite the schedule to end after new year. The Rail, Maritime and Transport union have launched the strike to demand better wages with rising inflation. The strikes will take place from 03 January to 07 January. The UK Transport Secretary Mark Harper called on all union leaders to return to the negotiating table and added that the government has proposed a “fair pay offer.” This was refuted by union leader Mick Lynch who said that there were no new proposals from the government. 
(“UK trains disrupted again as workers stage fresh strikes,” Le Monde, 03 December 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
NATO Military Chiefs of Defence to discuss on Ukraine, Kosovo, and Iraq
On 02 January, NATO Military Committee’s Public Affairs and Strategic Communications wing and NATO International Military Staff announced the meeting of NATO Military Chiefs of Defence from 18 January to 19 January. The meeting will be led by Military Committee Chair, Admiral Rob Bauer. The Allied Chiefs of Defence along with Finland and Sweden will attend the meeting. The NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg is expected to discuss on the political objectives and security challenges to NATO. Some of the issues that will be discussed include the ground situation in Kosovo and a review of KFOR’s and NATO’s military support to Ukraine. The Committee will also discuss NATO’s non-combative and capacity-building Mission in Iraq. 
(“NATO Military Chiefs of Defence Meeting - 18-19 January 2023,” nato.int, 02 January 2023)


War in Ukraine: Day 314
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 03 January, Ukrinform reported on discovery of a torture chamber in the regional police department of Kherson. In the investigation it identified evidence of residents, law enforcement officers and patriots being tortured in seven chambers.

On 03 January, Ukraine’s Strategic Communications of the Office predicted the upcoming winter to be challenging for Ukraine and Russia. Despite the harsh climate conditions, it views two advantages for Ukraine as it will be able to defend better from its own ground and flowing support from international. The challenges it sees ahead is the low temperatures which will make it difficult in deployment of forces, thereby increasing the demand for more health care services, thereby affecting the overall offensive.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 03 January, RT reported on increase in the import of gold by Switzerland from Russia. According to the report, Swiss exports of pharmaceutical goods surmounted by 19 per cent, and imports from Russia increase by 54 per cent since 2022. Although the metal manufacturers and dealers have denied partnering in import of Russian gold, Swiss Customs data recorded 6.4 tonnes of gold worth USD 370 million from Russia in November.

On 03 January, Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed on destroying the HIMARS rocket launchers in Druzhkovka railway station and Kramatorsk. It also claimed on using its air force for precision strikes that destroyed 130 mercenaries in Kramatorsk and Maslyakovka. On the strike in Makiivka, Russia which previously claimed 63 to be dead, has updated it to 89 and blamed Ukraine for tracing the location of soldiers through their phones. According to Lieutenant General Sergei Sevryukov: “But it is already obvious that the main reason... was the turning on and massive use by personnel of mobile phones within reach of enemy weapons contrary to the ban.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 January, Deutsche Welle, reported the announcement of the upcoming summit in Kyiv. The EU-Ukraine summit is expected to take place in Ukraine instead of Brussels to discuss the financial and military support on 03 February. 

On 03 January, Turkey’s President spokesperson announced President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan for separate calls with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia President Vladimir Putin.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 03 January, RT reported on Angola request to Russian businesses to invest for “diplomatic support.” Angolan Ambassador to Moscow Augusto da Silva Cunha said “We want to motivate Russian businessmen to take advantage of Angola’s openness to foreign investment.” Till now the relations between Angola and Russia have been close in diamond, banking, agriculture, transport sectors.

References

Winter months to be difficult, but Ukraine has “advantages” – StratCom,” Ukrinform, 03 January 2023
Russian torture chamber discovered in Kherson regional police department,” Ukrinform, 03 January 2023
Switzerland boosts gold imports from Russia despite sanctions – media,” RT, 03 January 2023
US-made HIMARS destroyed in new strikes – Moscow,” RT, 03 January 2023
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy warns of drawn-out drone campaign,” Deutsche Welle, 03 January 2022
African nation wants major investment from Russia,” RT, 03 January 2023

03 January 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #400

Ukraine war: Day 313 I In Focus: Croatia joins the Eurozone I In Brief: Finland's slow economic grow

Photo : Deutsche Welle/South Africa


EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan

Croatia adopts Euro and joins the Schengen area

On 30 December, European Commission in its press release announced the approval of Croatia to join the Schengen area and the eurozone. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “I warmly welcome Croatia in the euro and in the Schengen free travel area…Schengen enlargement makes us stronger, and Croatia can now fully contribute.” On 01 January 2023, Croatia adopted the euro as its currency and became the eighth country to join the Schengen area. According to Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic: “….we witness the achievement of strategic goals of a state — this is such a day."

Will the currency conversion affect the economy?
Croatia joining the Eurozone would mean the replacement of kuna (National currency) with euro at a set conversion rate of EUR one for HRK 7.53450 (Croatian kuna). This alarming conversion has raised concerns among consumers about being exploited through high prices by businesses providing goods and services. The EU has introduced a dual price display plan where both currencies will be in use for the next two weeks to allow a complete removal of kuna from the currency market. The prices of kuna and euro will be displayed till 31 December 2023, to ensure the protection of customers from unfair prices.

Additionally, a “Business Code of Ethics” will be followed to ensure the maintenance of stable prices for goods and services. The financial agency and post officer will facilitate the exchange or circulation of kuna banknotes with euro banknotes till 31 December 2023. The monitoring mechanism and the appointment of “consumer protection associations” are observed to keep a check on businesses from trading at unfair prices but in the case of a “business to business” transaction, it is exempt. Although the mechanism does seem positive, the timing of Croatia joining the Eurozone does not seem convincing. Since the Ukraine war and energy crisis that has hit Europe, the value of the euro is on the rising trend, if a financial crisis is declared later in 2023, as a follower of the single currency, will directly impact Croatia’s economy. Imagining a repetition of similar instances such as the 2008 financial crisis, being a euro or a non-euro country does not account for the impact observed to be the same.


Will the impact be positive or negative on Croatia's businesses being part of the Schengen area?
Tourism
The tourism industry comprises one-fifth of Croatia’s GDP and joining the Schengen area will be a boost for tourism. This would be possible as the crossing “between Croatia and Slovenia in the north” which sees many polish travelers in summer will now be free of checks. Without land, sea, and air control, travel is expected to boom with the removal of checks from 26 European countries, thereby promoting more movement.

Businesses: Health and construction sector
For the businesses, financial statements will remain in the HRK till 2022 and from 01 January 2023, they will be prepared in EUR and for employees, salaries will remain in HRK, which will be converted to EUR as per the conversion rules.

According to professor of Business and Economics, Albert Guivernau, Eurozone supports stability and helps in increasing capital mobility but does not provide worker mobility at the same level. In terms of economic growth, the euro countries experienced a “solid level of growth,” but it was not the same in the reduction of the unemployment rate. In Guivernau’s view, this was due to: “Evidence of the rigidity of prices and the divergence of production structures.”

Although joining the eurozone and Schengen area can help accumulate capital to impact businesses positively, the state of labour force remains a question. Croatia which has been facing a massive “general labour shortage” since accession to the EU, especially in health in construction sectors, joining the Schengen area can add more to the outflow. Since Croatia’s migration policy is observed to be restrictive and less integrated, the new situation might further push the government to adopt a friendly policy for migrant workers to convert capital into growth.
 
References

Euro and Schengen: Croatia joins the Euro and Schengen areas,” ec.europa.eu30 December 2022
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROZONE,” Universitat Abat Oliba CEU, 03 November 2021
Enlargement of the Eurozone: Road Map to the Introduction of the Euro in Croatia,” Wolf Theiss, 23 August 2022
Lauren Simmonds, “A Week in Croatian Politics - A Schengen and Eurozone Special,” Total Croatia news, 30 December 2022
Michael Martens “Croatian double boom,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 01 January 2023


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew

AUSTRIA
Parliament releases regulation for taxes, CO2, allowance, and pension benefit for 2023
On 01 January, Austria’s parliament declared its new rules for 2023. The tax increase, known as the “cold progression” has been abolished, and this will lead to a person earning EUR 31 more per month. The CO2 tax has been enforced more strongly now with the revised tax, the law now states EUR 32.50 tax per ton of CO2 consumed. This law will affect motorists in particular. The family allowance amount has been increased from EUR 120 to EUR 165.10. The school start allowance scheme which provides EUR 100 per child is to be reintroduced from August 2023. New rules for waste segregation have been introduced, more plastic waste is now allowed in the yellow bins, whereas the collection of light packaging is to be standardized. The pension benefits for those who earn less than EUR 5,670 a month have been increased to 5.8 per cent, and starting March 2023 a EUR 500 direct cash transfer scheme will commence. (“Salaries, cash bonuses and regulations – What awaits Austrians in 2023?,” Austrian Press, 01 January 2023)
 
CYPRUS
Ex-transport minister drops out from the presidential bid
On 02 January, the Ex-Transport Minister, Marios Eliades announced that he had withdrawn his nomination for the President’s post. Eliades had announced his candidacy 14 months earlier and was on the campaign trail trying to build coalitions with other parties. After pulling out of the race, Eliades said, “Parties as well as presidential candidates, who share concerns with me, have remained attached to their initial plans, not caring if they are dead ends and most likely doomed to electoral failure.” Previously associated with the Edek party during the late 1970s and early 1980s, he becmae the Transport Minister of Cyprus. He did not reveal if he would be supporting any candidate or not, stating that the country needs an honest and progressive to lead the people. He did state that he would never abstain from casting his vote as that was a duty of each citizen. (Andria Kades, “Eliades withdraws from presidential race,” Cyprus Mail, 02 January 2022) 

FINLAND
Higher Female participation in military service and training says Finnish Defence Force
On 30 December 2022, the Finnish Defence Forces released data on women who underwent military training in 2022. The data revealed that in 2022, the highest number of women took up voluntary military service, and in total, more than 12,000 women had undergone training. 2022 was the first year that the number of women the Finnish Defence Forces are training/g in a single year went above 1,000. Finnish society’s view on women in the military largely seems to be changing as suggested by the results of a recent survey by the Uutissuomalainen, a Finnish newspaper group. Out of the people surveyed 35 per cent have stated that they support mandatory conscription for women. In the Finnish Parliament, one-third of all the MPs support this idea too. The majority still is against the idea of female conscription, both among the public and the parliament. This debate has been continuing in the country for many months and gained relevance after the Russian invasion.
(“Record number of women volunteer for military service in 2022,” yle.fi, 20 December 2022)
 
Forecasts predict slow economy growth in 2023
On 02 January, the Ministry of Finance announced that Finland is staring at a period of slow growth, and consumer price rise in 2023. The statement came with the release of the latest economic forecast for 2023, in which the GDP is expected to contract by 0.2 per cent. This is not a new warning as experts from various fields have been warning of a looming recession in early 2023. On 16 December 2022, Bank of Finland, the Head of forecasting at the  Meri Obstbaum said: “National economy will contract by half a per cent year-on-year in 2023.” This has been attributed to the energy crisis facing Europe, causing the rise in the cost of living. The statement from the Ministry of Finance indicates that Finland’s economy will only recover in 2024, as inflation will recede and consumption will rise. The price rise due to the pandemic will reduce as supply chain bottlenecks get removed and raw material prices stabilize. A Financial Advisor at the Ministry of Finance, Jenni Paakkoen said:  “Public debt as a proportion of gross domestic product will decrease this year by almost a percentage point to 71.7 per cent. The decrease is attributable to the injection of tax revenue provided by robust economic growth and solid employment situation.” 
(“Finnish economy to slide into recession in 2023, say Ministry of Finance, Bank of Finland,” Helsinki Times, 02 January 2023)
 
GERMANY 
Climate Activists go to extreme lengths to push for climate goals
On 02 January, The New York Times published an article illustrating how climate activists belonging to a group known as “Last Generation” are using extreme tactics to get the government’s and public attention. They have been in the news for various other incidents, like desecrating a Christmas tree in Germany, heckling Parliamentarians, disrupting concerts, and throwing paint on famous paintings in museums. The group Last Generation was founded in 2021, when a group of activists went on a hunger strike in front of the German Parliament, since then they have grown in numbers and are non-well-established. The latest method they are using is blocking traffic, by walking onto highways wearing yellow vests. The German public as well as the government have both taken note of their issues, as well as their disruptive tactics. The debate now rages, about how much is too much while protesting. This is leading to internal discussions among the activists as well if these actions are bringing the common people towards or away from the environmental cause. These actions also make the activists an easy target for right-wing conservative politicians, in particular the opposition parties in the German Parliament. Describing the protests a researcher studying protests at the WZB Social Science Centre, Daniel Saldivia Gonzatii says, “They mix claims really easy to implement, majority-winning 
policy claims — things that are quite accessible for a majority of the population — with a system criticism.” (Christopher F. Schuetze, “Climate Activists Find a Way to Get Germany’s Attention: Stop Traffic,” The New York Times, 02 January 2023)
  
NORWAY
Electric car sales record highest growth in 2022
On 02 January, the Norwegian Road Federation released the data of vehicle sales and registrations in 2022. The data shows electric cars recorded the highest growth in sales, with four out of every fifth car registered being an electric vehicle. Compared to 2021, electric car sales have gone up by 14.3 per cent to an all time high of 79.3 per cent in 2022. The US electric automaker, Tesla sold the highest number of vehicles out of all the electric cars sold in the country. Tesla has become the market leader for the second year in a row after 2021. In the EU, Norway has lead the path in switching over to electric cars. Norway’s policies incentivized buying and owning electric vehicles but this has changed in 2023. The tax exceptions on electric cars have been removed starting 01 January 2023. The government stated that tax exemptions had costed the government USD four billion in 2022, and will not be feasible in the long run. 
(“Norway: Electric car sales soar, setting new record,” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2023)
 
RUSSIA
Effects of the war felt on new year celebrations
On 30 December 2022, The Moscow Times reported on the New Year celebrations and the public mood in the country. This is Russia’s first new year after the war in Ukraine began. Since then, it is estimated that around 1,00,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives. The men fighting in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine do not see any hope of returning back to families and celebrating together, nor do they see when would the war end. In Russia itself, war messaging has become normalized and a part of everyday life, as the pro-war symbols “Z” and “V” have been put up in public places. Criticism of the war is not tolerated and leads to immediate detention, nearly 19,500 were detained under these charges in 2022. Many young Russians have left the country, fearing forced conscription or due to being anti-war. Russia’s neighbouring countries of Georgia, Armenia,
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have seen the arrival of tens of thousands of Russians in 2022. (Anastasia Tenisheva, “‘Where Are We Heading?’: Wartime New Year Prompts Russian Soul-Searching,” The Moscow Times, 30 December 2022) 

REGIONAL
30th Anniversary of Czechoslovakia dissolution
On 31 December 2022, the Czech Republic and Slovakia marked the 30th anniversary of the breakup of erstwhile Czechoslovakia. The country had got divided without a referendum and just based on an agreement between two Prime Ministers. There was a peaceful division afterwards, without any conflict or life being lost. The people of both countries still reminisce about the days when both counties used to be one. Many citizens inhabit the border areas and freely move to and fro across the border. Alliances and friendships are common among people. The only conflict to have happened is over the division of the fishing rights in the various rivers flowing through both countries, the situation never escalated to require any involvement from the police. The main difference being Slovakia adopted the Euro whereas the Czech Republic is still using its old currency. The citizens of both countries speak of the day the federal state got divided with nostalgia, recalling New Year’s Eve of 1992 when they sang the whole Czechoslovakia anthem.
(Rob Cameron, “Czechoslovakia: Czechs and Slovaks mark 30 years since Velvet Divorce,” BBC, 02 December 2023)
 
NATO study on Baltic China relations released

On 20 December 2022, a NATO-funded study on relations with China conducted jointly by political scientists from Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania released a report. The study found that over the past 30 years, the Baltic-Chinese relationship has had both highs and lows. The methodology of the study included surveys among the citizens to know their opinion on China, and analyzing the bilateral ties and economic cooperation between the Baltic countries and China. China does not have many economic interests in the region, therefore most of the Baltic countries do not see China as a threat or competitor. Lithuania was the one exception, as the country has been blocked economically by China due to its opening an embassy in Taiwan. Estonia and Latvia have a less critical view of China, with the major issues of concern being Taiwan, Tibet and China’s relationship with Russia. The report concludes by stating that the majority of people have a neutral view towards China, with more than 40 per cent of people in the three countries selecting neutral. 
(“Baltic-China relations at one of the lowest points, study finds,” LRT.lt, 30 December 2022)

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 
Thrush Nightingale named as Latvia’s Bird of the Year

On 02 January, the Latvian Ornithological Society picked the Thrush Nightingale as its bird of the year. This is in homage to Ukraine and to bring attention towards the conservation efforts for the Nightingale. The President of the Society, Andris Dekants while announcing the winner said, “Hearing the nightingale's song in nature in the spring, this year we invite you not only to enjoy the attractive voice of this bird, but also to think about how each of us can support Ukraine and Ukrainians and their efforts for independence.” The Nightingale can usually be spotted during the months of May and June, as they migrate from Africa at the end of April. The population of the Nightingale has fallen by a quarter of what it was in 2005, the society in its announcement stated. Dekantis in conclusion said, “This is one of the rare times when the Bird of the Year role is a songbird that is not characterized by expressive plumage, but by a bright song. Therefore, we invite residents to not only notice, but also hear the voices of birds in nature and try to recognize them." 
(“Nightingale is Latvia's bird of the year,” Latvia Public Broadcasting, 02 January 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Austria-India hold bilateral talks, agreement to combat illegal migration signed
On 01 January, India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar met with Austria’s Foreign Minister, Alexander Schallenberg and the two spoke of bilateral and international issues concerning the two countries. They signed a joint “Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement” (MMPA) on 01 January. India views this agreement as a stepping stone to finalizing the India-European Union Free Trade Agreement. Previously, India has signed joint MMPA’s with other European Countries like France, the UK, Germany and Finland. The agreement helps to combat illegal migration to Austria, as India is one of the leading countries from which illegal migrants arrive in the country. In 2022, Austria received 15,000 illegal migrants of India origin. A spokesperson to the Austrian Foreign Ministry, Claudia Turtscher said, “The agreement is now a useful tool to combat illegal migration together, as it enables the swift return of illegal migrants.” The agreement also includes provisions for students and working professionals. The Austrian Foreign Minister spoke about India’s G-20 Presidency, the opportunity that provides and commented on India’s position on the Ukraine War, saying these are the two major issues that form the agenda. 
(Kallol Bhattacherjee, ““Exploding number” of illegal immigrants from India came to Austria last year, says Austrian Foreign Minister,” The Hindu, 02 January 2023; Suhasini Haider, “India and Austria to sign migration and mobility agreement, shore up ties,” The Hindu, 01 January 2023)


War in Ukraine: Day 313
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 02 January, Ukrenergo reported that the supply of electricity in Ukraine has been further disrupted by Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Central Ukraine. It stated that it will assist in the restoration of power through emergency power outages. Since the demand for energy had decreased due to warm weather in Ukraine has resulted in an easing of the burden on energy infrastructure and restoration efforts. 

On 02 January, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy Herman Galushchenk said that an energy blackout in Ukraine is only possible theoretically. Galushchenk outlined how Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been functioning under Russian attacks for three months but has yet to completely fail. He said that this is mostly due to the existing measures for the physical protection of the facilities and the technical measure in place to balance the system.  Galushchenk added that Ukraine is conducting planned electricity supply restrictions to repair the damage caused to power generation and transmission systems to limit the chances of an energy blackout. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 January, the Russian Ministry of Defence said that 63 Russian troops were killed by an Ukranian missile attack on Makeyevka in DPR. According to the ministry, the Ukranian forces launched six missiles through the HIMRAS multiple rocket launchers which hit a temporary housing area occupied by Russian forces in the Donbass region. The ministry added that out of the six missiles two were downed by the Russian forces.  

On 02 January, Russia’s long-range air command head Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash outlined the role of long-range aviation in Ukraine in 2023. Kobylash said that it will continue to play a role in the military operation in Ukraine by carrying out combat missions in the region. He said that the command will be trained in “the use of airborne means of destruction” as a part of its operational and combat training for 2023. He also added that as a part of the command’s role in the military operation in 2023 the pilots will be honing their skills in working with information support for high-precision weapons and automated control systems.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 02 January, Hungarian National Policy State Secretary János Árpád Potápi criticised Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to sign a new law which restricts the rights of national minorities living in Ukraine. Potápi focusing on the Hungarian population in Ukraine said: “While Hungary is carrying out the largest humanitarian aid operation in its history to help refugees from Ukraine, the rights of national minorities in Ukraine are being further restricted.” He highlighted the recommendations of the European Commission given to Ukraine and said that they were not being implemented effectively. He added that while Hungary supports Ukraine’s integration into the EU, Ukraine needs to ensure that the new laws adopted by Ukraine should follow international standards and European values. 

On 02 January, the UK’s Foreign Office announced that they will be stopping the imports of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG). the Foreign Office said that this will directly affect the gas revenues of Russia which is being used to finance the war in Ukraine. The US is now the main supplier of LNG to the UK and other European countries. Russian LNG has not come under EU sanctions and is currently being used to keep the energy prices in Europe in check.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 02 January, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said that in 2023 a third of the world will be in recession. Georgieva lists the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, high-interest prices and rising cases of Covid in China as some of the main catalysts for economies to enter a recession. She added that the US, EU and China will see their economies slowing down. 

On 02 January, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar reaffirmed India’s stance on the Ukraine conflict and called for a dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. Speaking at a press conference in Vienna, Jiashankar stressed that this era is not an era for war and added that all differences should be addressed through diplomacy and dialogue. He added that India along with the Global South is concerned regarding the availability of food, fertilizers and fuel which have been restricted due to the conflict. 

On 02 December, Taiwan delivered the first batch of two high-power generators (300–800 kilo Volt-amps) to Kyiv as a part of the memorandum signed between Taiwan and Kyiv. The generators were received by Kyiv’s Mayor who said: "The first two generators have already been handed over to "Kyivteploenergo", they will be used in the city's boiler houses.” The memorandum of understanding was signed between Taiwan and Kyiv to help the latter purchase diesel power generators to provide alternative heating sources for the residents. Through the deal, Kyiv is said to purchase 20 generators to help offset the damage done to the city’s energy infrastructure.   

References

Ukrenergo: Emergency power outages introduced due to Russia’s Jan. 2 drone attack,” Kyiv Independent, 02 January 2023
A number of solutions have been developed to ensure the stable operation of the power system in conditions of constant attacks - Herman Galushchenko,” mev.gov.ua, 02 January 2023 
Dozens of Russian troops killed in Ukrainian strike,” RT, 02 January 2023
Goals outlined for Russia’s long-range air force in 2023,” RT, 02 January 2023
Alex Kimani “United Kingdom Stops Imports Of Russian LNG,” Oilprice.com, 02 January 2023
State Secretary Urges Ukraine to Respect National Minorities,” Hungary Today, 02 January 2023
Press Statement by External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar at the Joint Press Conference with the Foreign Minister of Austria,” mea.gov.in, 02 January 2023
Vitaliy Klitschko: Kyiv received the first two high-power generators as part of the implementation of the memorandum with Taiwan (+photo),” kyivcity.gov.ua, 02 January 2023
Suranjana Tewari and Peter Hoskins “Third of world in recession this year, IMF head warns,” BBC, 02 January 2023


02 January 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #399

Sweden takes over EU presidency; UK to produce nuclear fuel | War in Ukraine: Day 311 & 312

France restricts travelers from China; Switzerland predicts population boom in 2023; The UK records 45,756 migrants entry in 2022

Photo : Deutsche Welle


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew


FRANCE
Surveillance measures announced to check passengers from China
On 30 December, France’s Health and Transport Ministries announced restrictions on travellers from China. The Ministry has released strict COVID-19 surveillance measures, making it compulsory that people have a negative COVID-19 certificate that is not more than 48 hours before departure. The other measures include the mandatory wearing of masks, and maintaining social distancing. This decision comes after a surge of COVID cases after the removal of lockdowns in China on 07 December 2022. The new rules are to come into force from 05 January 2023 onwards. From 01 January, travellers from China were required to undergo an RT-PCR test upon arrival to the country. This makes France the third country in the EU to introduce screening for passengers from China as a precautionary anti-COVID measure after the EU had failed to agree on a joint plan of action on 29 December 2022. (Louise Guillot, “France becomes third EU country to screen China arrivals for COVID,” Politico, 31 December 2022)

HUNGARY
Veszprem-Balaton prepares to celebrate itself as the European Cultural Capital of 2023
On 31 December, Deutsche Welle Hungary's win as Europe's cultural capital. The EU in 2018 announced that the city of Veszprem-Balaton in Hungary has won the bid to be one of the three European Capitals of Culture for the year 2023. The EU calls for bids from countries, and selects three cities each year, these are then promoted for tourism and benefit from other related activities. Veszprem-Balaton’s turn begins on 21 January, for which preparation has got underway. Veszprem has a distinct musical culture too, which has been acknowledged by the UN, awarding the city “UNESCO City of Music” in 2019. The chief adviser for program development at Veszprem-Balaton 2023 said. “When bidding for the title of European Capital of Culture, Veszprem had two fierce rivals in Hungary: Gyor and Debrecen. "On the one hand, we had a very firm intent. On the other, it was really a case of David versus Goliath. We were the smallest city, but we were the most enthusiastic.” Themes of regeneration and sustainability have found a strong place in the art of the city and will be on showcase in the various programs during the course of the year. Nearly, 3,000 events have been planned for the year for which the government has allocated USD 186 million worth of funds. (Agnes Szabo, “Veszprem-Balaton 2023: Hungary's new creative region,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2022)
 
SWITZERLAND
Population to reach nine million in 2023
On 01 January, a report in the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung, published the findings on the population figure for Switzerland for the year 2023. The report says that Switzerland’s population will exceed 9 million by the end of 2023. The growth is more than that of other EU countries like France, Germany and the UK. The major reason behind this is the free movement of people within the EU, which attracts immigrants to Switzerland’s high quality of life and economy. The nine million population figure includes both permanent and non-permanent residents. The newspaper spoke about the harmful effects on the environment due to population growth. It will make it harder for Switzerland to achieve its emission reduction targets, as infrastructure development and traffic will see an exponential increase. (Rico Bandel, “Welcome to the 9 million Switzerland,” Tagesanzeiger.ch, 31 December 2022)
 
NORWAY
The Guardian report on increased earnings from oil and gas
On 01 January, a report in The Guardian analyzed how Norway has become richer over the course of the Russia-Ukraine war due to high oil and gas prices. This increase in energy prices worldwide has led to Norway earning a profit of over EUR 113 billion in 2022. Norway has replaced Russia as the major provider of oil and gas to Europe. The report says that the increase in Norway’s earnings have not directly benefited Norwegians, for the citizens are facing increased cost-of-living expenses. In June 2022, an economics professor at Oslo University, Kalle Moene stated that Norway should put the excess profit into an international solidarity fund that would help the countries who have been affected due to the war and the disruptions of global supply chains. The government decided that it would not allocate any money for aid, instead, it reduced the aid budget from one per cent of gross national income to 0.75 per cent. This was announced by the Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Store. There is minimal support emerging within the government for sharing the profits for aid. This is due to the pressure on the government from its coalition partners, the Green party, the Christian Democratic party and the Socialist party. (Philip Oltermann, “Battle for the nation’s soul’: Norway faces debate about gas and oil wealth,” The Guardian, 01 January 2023)

THE UK
Department of Commerce reports on UK's failure to meet Brexit foreign trade deals goals
On 31 December, the UK's Department of Commerce confirmed that the UK had not been able to meet the goal of moving away from pre-Brexit trade deals. The plan was to make 80 per cent of the trade deals as new post-Brexit negotiated deals. By the end of 2022, the government has only managed to have less than two-thirds of all the foreign trade volume being covered under post-Brexit agreements. One of the defining policies that Brexit promised was the ability of the UK to negotiate and introduce its own trade deals. The data provided by the Ministry of Commerce says that only 63 per cent of all foreign trade has been covered by post-Brexit contracts. The UK apart from wanting to trade more profitably with the EU also plans to build trade relations with the US which has a larger market. It is giving more importance to having a trade deal with the US. An economist at the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University, Andrew Lee says, “Trade deals are complicated in practice, and the rest of the world doesn't see trade with the UK as important as Brexit advocates think. Not everyone is patiently waiting in line to sign a deal with Global Britain." (“Britain misses its own targets for trade deals,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 31 December 2022)

Measures to produce nuclear fuel domestically to move away from Russian energy
On 02 January, the UK Minister of State for Energy and Climate, Graham Stuart announced that the UK has allocated EUR 75 million to fund the domestic development of nuclear fuel production. This is aimed at countering the reliance and building an alternative to Russian fuel and civil nuclear goods. The move is in line with the UK’s G7 promise of introducing a Nuclear Fuel Fund to encourage nuclear operators to use UK-produced fuel over others. The fund also helps in diversifying uranium production, which is the primary element required for nuclear projects. The UK government plans to acquire 24GW of energy from nuclear sources starting in 2050. Stuart spoke of the new development, “This investment package will strengthen the UK’s energy security, by ensuring access to a safe and secure supply of UK-produced fuel to power the UK nuclear fleet of today and tomorrow - squeezing out Russian influence, while creating more UK jobs and export opportunities.” The fund functions by taking bids from private companies, and has awarded EUR 13 million to companies in Preston. (“Ministers bolster UK nuclear fuel capacity to squeeze out Russian influence ,” Gov.uk, 2 January 2023)
 
Migrants who entered the UK in 2022 totals 45,756 
On 01 January, the UK government released the data on the number of total migrations who tried to cross over into the UK during the year 2022. The report said that 45,756 migrants came in 2022, the highest recorded to date. There is a difference of 17,000 migrants from 2019. The report also had details regarding the number of people who tried to cross over in small boats and vessels across the English Channel on a single day. On 22 August, 1,295 people made the perilous journey over the English Channel, making it the highest recorded migrant crossing in a single day. There have been lots of accidents and deaths, due to the boats capsizing. This has become a substantial political issue at home, in the UK, conservatives trying their best to handle the situation. The government had plans to commence flights to Rwanda, with deported people onboard. UK Interior Minister, Suella Braverman said that the government would go ahead with the deportation policy. The France's government paid USD 74.5 million as funds for patrolling the French coast and deter migrants from crossing. (“UK: Record number of migrants cross the Channel in 2022,” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2022)

REGIONAL
Sweden takes over the EU Presidency from the Czech Republic
On 01 January, Sweden undertook the European Council from its predecessor, the Czech Republic. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristernsson will lead the EU’s Swedish Presidency for six months, from January to June. The four main priorities that the Swedish Presidency will look at are, security and unity, competitiveness, green transition and energy transition, and democratic values and the rule of law. Sweden will take over the EU’s Presidency amid the ongoing Ukraine war, energy crisis, inflation, economic crisis that has been prevailing over Europe. Kristersson stated: “Sweden is taking over the Presidency at a time when the European Union is facing unprecedented challenges. A greener, more secure and freer Europe is the foundation of our priorities.” Sweden will be having its third term of the EU’s Presidency and will be followed by Spain in the next half of 2023. (“The Swedish Presidency is under way,” consilium,europa.eu, 01 January 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU calls to improve efforts to promote peace in Eastern DRC
On 31 December, the UN Group of Experts came out with its report on the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Eastern part of the country has been embroiled in violence, which the African nations are trying to solve through the Luanda and Nairobi processes. The EU after the release of the report, responded announcing full support for the processes. It called on all the parties and political leaders to intensify their efforts to achieve peace in the region. The EU noted that the humanitarian crisis put 27 million people at risk. (“Democratic Republic of the Congo: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the publication of the recent UN Group of Experts report,” consilium.europa.eu, 31 December 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 311 & 312
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Grounds
On 01 January, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR)’s representative, Vadym Skibitskyi, reported that the sanctions mounted on Russia by Ukraine and the West had taken a toll on Russia’s military might. According to Skibitskyi Russia’s arms stock has been decreasing. The deficit can be seen from the number of Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-101, and Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles that the Russian army has been deploying due to the shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery shells. This has made Russia depend upon Iran and Belarus to replenish its missile stock.

On 01 January, Kyiv, came under attack from Russian drones and missiles. 45 Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones were destroyed by Kyiv’s air defence systems and Ukraine’s Air Force. In the attack on new year eve, 45 suicidal drones were shot down by Ukraine’s air defence. The primary target of these drones was found to be destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Debris from the X-55 missile was also found in one of the districts of the Kyiv region. Russia was also accused for attacking near Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine using Kamikaze drones.

On 31 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his new year address spoke on Ukraine’s resilience to fight back against Russia to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Listing our the key events of the year during the course of the war said: "Putin 'hides behind you and burns your country."

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 31 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin in his new year’s address to Russia called 2022 “A year of difficult, necessary decisions, the most important steps towards gaining the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society.” Putin said that the events of 2022 are milestones for a common Russian future and Russia’s total independence. He added that 2022 was filled with anxiety, unrest and experiences which brought great, key changes to Russia and the world. He criticized the West saying that while they lied about wanting peace all along they had planned to use Ukraine to weaken Russia. On the sanction imposing on Russia, Putin said that despite the intention being to destruct "industry, finances, transport,"  did not materialize as the Russian society strengthened its economy to ensure sovereignty. 

On 01 January, DPR’s acting Head Denis Pushilin reported on the shelling in Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Makeyevka, and Gorlovka by the Ukrainian forces that killed a civilian and injured five others. Pushlin noted: “Since 2014 it has been their cynical practice to terrorise civilians on the days of important holidays.”  The shelling resulted in the destruction of an indoor bazaar, the Donbas arena stadium, the Republican Art Museum, and the Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation. Other civilian infrastructures like schools, private households and shops were also hit by Ukrainian artillery.

On 01 January, Gazprom announced to continue its gas supply to Europe through Ukraine via the Sudzha gas pumping station. A spokesperson for Gazprom outlined that 43.4 million cubic meters of gas were transported every day to western and central European countries. The total volume of gas to be transported was decided by Ukraine and the spokesperson added that the request for supplying gas through the Sokhranovka gas pumping station was rejected by Ukraine. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 02 January, Germany will lead NATO’s "Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF)" from 2023. The VJTF was formed as a response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. Germany will contribute 8,000 soldiers out of 11,500 to the VJTF. Its purpose is to be ready to engage in short-term deployments and reach the target within 48 to 72 hours. It is seen as deterrence and defence of Europe. Germany will head the VJTF in 2023 due to the annual change of leadership.

On 31 December, the UK’s Defence Intelligence reported that Russia had a pattern of attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure every seven to ten days with missile strikes. However, Defence Intelligence speculates that Russia would break the pattern and attack Ukraine to demoralize the people amid new year celebrations.

On 31 December, Advisor to Kraus-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) Nicholas Drummond stated that Germany has started the production of 18 Remotely Controlled Howitzers RCH 155 that are part of the military package that Germany had promised Ukraine. Germany would provide 18 RCH 155 howitzers worth EUR 216 million to Ukraine.

On 31 December, the EU’s Foreign Affairs and Security Policy High Representative, Josep Borrell said in a tweet that the bloc would continue its solidarity with Ukraine in 2023. He reprimanded Russia for attacking Ukraine in 2022’s end. He said: “We are resolved to continue standing by Ukraine, also in 2023.”

On 31 December, the ISW reported on Putin's annual New Year’s Eve speech. The report stated that Putin was adamant about justifying the war and its expenses. He said: “...we are defending our people on our own historical territories in the new Russian Federation Subjects (the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine).” He added: “...was a year of difficult, necessary decisions, of important steps toward achieving the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society,” Putin displayed himself as an able wartime leader, heading the ongoing war within his control. According to ISW’s, Putin did not mention the Russian army’s setbacks and failures in his speech. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 31 December, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko. Lula and Matvienko discussed Russia-Brazil bilateral relations and emphasized the need for peace and common ground to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end. Lula and Svyrydenko discussed the situation on the ground and the latter also presented Zelenskyy’s “..formula of peace for the world.” The two also talked about Brazil’s participation in the rebuilding of Ukraine and future economic cooperation. Lula called for an end to the conflict and said: “In Brazil, we have a tradition of defending the integrity of nations and we are going to talk to whoever is possible for peace.”  
 
On 30 December, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that the backup power line Ferosplavna 1 to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)  was disconnected on 29 December. Grossi said that the 330 kilovolt (kV) backup power line was disconnected due to shelling in the region which damaged the already fragile electricity supply from the grid. The backup was allegedly lost around 2135 hours of Ukraine time due to shelling near the Dnipro river. Grossi called for an immediate cessation of all military action to restore the Ferosplavna 1 power line.  
 
On 31 December, ICRC President Mirjana Spolarich Egger in an interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung said that she will be visiting Moscow in 2023. Egger said that her visit to Moscow is a part of the ICRC initiative to remain neutral and ensure security guarantees to volunteers on the ground and for prisoner visits. She said added that all the details for her visit have not been finalized yet. In the interview, she spoke about the work ICRC doing in Ukraine and the importance of staying neutral and abiding by humanitarian law. 

References
Russia began to change the tactics of shelling Ukraine,” gur.gov.ua, 01 January 2023
Andriy Nebytov, “Once again, I emphasize the need to take care of safety. During an air raid, take shelter.,” Telegram, 02 January 2023
Oleksiy Kuleba, At night, the Kyiv region repelled an attack by martyr drones. the terrorist country targeted energy infrastructure facilities.,” Telegram, 01 January 2023
Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “ON NEW YEAR'S NIGHT, AIR DEFENSES DESTROYED 45 "SHAHEDS",” Telegram, 01 January 2022
New Year greetings of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi,” president.gov.ua, 31 December 2022
New Year's address to Russian citizens,” kremlin.ru, 31 December 2022
DPR head: stronger Ukrainian shellings during New Year holidays well-expected,” Tass 01 January 2023 
Gazprom delivering 43.4 mln cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine via Sudzha,” Tass, 01 January 2023
Germany takes over leadership of NATO's 'spearhead force',” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2023
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 December 2022,” Twitter, 31 December 2022
Germany begins to produce RCH 155 howitzers for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 01 January 2022
Nicholas Drummond, “Sometimes combining two proven solutions in a new concept can be revolutionary while avoiding significant risk.,” Twitter, 31 December 2022
Josep Borrel, “In 2022, Russia decided to fully abandon commitments to basic human rights and to attack Ukraine and global security,” Twitter, 31 December 2022 
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 31,” ISW, 31 December 2022
Lula calls for peace at meetings with Russia, Ukraine representatives,” Reuters, 01 January 2023
Yuliia Svyrydenko presented peace formula of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to President of Brazil Lula da Silva,” kmu.gov.ua, 01 January 2023
Update 138 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 30 December 2022
Andrea Kucera and Daniel Friedli “Respect for martial law is the best chance for reconciliation, says the new ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger. And announces that she will travel to Moscow.,” NZZ Magazine, 31 December 2022 


29 December 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #396

Serbia to remove 19-day barricade; Exxon Mobil sues the EU | War in Ukraine: Day 308

Finland's Olkiluoto nuclear reactor is back online; Sweden's government receives negative reception from a public survey; Albania allows visa-free entries to Chinese

Photo : REUTERS/Florion Goga


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew


KOSOVO
Serbian President announces the removal of 19-day blockade
On 29 December, ethnic Serbs of northern Kosovo announced the removal of barricades from three major roads. These had been blocked as a sign of protest against the arrest of a Serbian police officer on 10 December. The officer has now been released and placed under house arrest. To calm tensions down in the area, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic held meetings with the Kosovo Serbs and announced the barricades will be removed beginning 29 December. The conflict is connected with Serbia repeatedly trying to block the independence of Kosovo and the western powers backing Kosovo in its quest. The majority of Kosovo’s population are ethnic Albanians and the minority are ethnic Serbs, which leads to minor clashes and breakouts of violence. (Fatos Bytyci, “Serbs in northern Kosovo to start removing barricades from Thursday,” Reuters, 29 December 2022)

FINLAND
Olkiluoto nuclear reactor restarted in full capacity to produce electricity
On 28 December, a nuclear reactor on Finland’s west coast restarted its operations. It was shut down due to repairs and this was causing a shortage of electricity supply to the main grid. The Olkiluoto nuclear power plant has been operating since 1979, but it was stopped this year when cracks appeared on the feedwater pumps. The operating company, Teollisuuden Voima, through a spokesperson issued a statement “During the 10-day trial period the reactor will undergo around 10 so-called 'full capacity tests'.” The reactor started operating at 400 MWh and reached its total capacity of 1600 MWh. (“Olkiluoto 3 restarts after shutdown,” yle.fi, 28 December 2022)

SWEDEN
Survey reveals reduced support amongst public for Kristersson’s government
On 28 December, a poll carried out by Demoskop announced the findings from its latest survey report on support for Sweden government. The results showed that the majority of the citizens do not have confidence in the Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson with six out of ten respondents marking the government’s performance as “very badly” in the survey. The major grievances of the people are to do with the rising energy costs, including that electricity and fuel. The government has only been able to announce schemes and promises but has not implemented any, said the people who were surveyed. There has been a steady rise in the number of people dissatisfied with the performance of the government over the past months as the survey indicates, report stated. (“Six out of ten Swedes already think the new government is ‘doing a poor job,” thelocal.se, 28 December 2022)

REGIONAL
Finland to help Estonia in accommodating Ukrainian refugees
On 27 December, Estonia’s Interior Ministry announced that Estonia was struggling to provide accommodation and refuge to all the Ukrainian refugees who were coming to the country. Finland has responded to this plea by announcing that it will take in 50-100 refugees per week arriving in Estonia starting in January 2023. Finland has offered free education for children and has stated that every refugee will be treated with the same rights as Finnish citizens. (“Finland to accept displaced Ukrainians from Estonia,” yle.fi, 27 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Exxon Mobil sues the EU to avoid windfall tax
On 28 December, The New York Times reported on the The US oil company Exxon Mobil suit over EU’s windfall tax. The European Council which passed the windfall tax, ruled that it can bypass the Parliament in emergency case. The tax will come into effect from 31 December has come under lawsuit as Exxon believes the tax to undermine its investor confidence, discourage investment and fears it would lead to “competitive crisis.”  According to the spokesperson Casey Norton, the company accepts the high energy price burden placed on the consumers but does not view the windfall tax as the solution to the energy price hike. (Melissa Eddy, “Exxon Mobil sues to try to block Europe windfall tax,” The New York Times, 28 December 2022)

Albania to allow Chinese citizens visa free
On 27 December, Albania became the second country after Serbia, in Europe to allow Chinese citizens visa-free entry into the country. The decision came after talks with Chinese officials to abolish the visa regime for both countries. Chinese citizens would no longer need to obtain a Schengen visa to enter Albania. The European Parliamentary report stated that countries take such actions to become attractive destinations for foreign investments but it leads to negatively impacting the cohesiveness of EU policies. The report stated this could hinder Balkan countries' bid to join the EU. (Fjori Sinoruka, “Albania Backs Scrapping Visas for Chinese in Snub to EU,” BalkanInsight.com, 28 December 2022)

Osman Kaval to remain in sentence says Turkey’s court
On 28 December, an appellate court in Turkey upheld the conviction of the human rights activist Osman Kaval, who has been jailed on serious charges. The charges include financing and leading the 2013 Gezi Park protests in Istanbul, inciting violence to overthrow the government, and creating civil unrest. The West believes the arrest to be politically motivated. Kaval has been in detention since 2017, along with seven others who are serving 18-year sentences. In 2021, ten foreign ambassadors had written a joint letter calling for Kavala’s release, to which Turkey responded by threatening to declare them as ‘persona non grata’. The court has been criticized by the European Court of Human Rights and the Council of Europe for its decision. (“Turkish court upholds life sentence for activist Kavala,” Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 308
By Madhura S Mahesh 

War on the Ground
On 28 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his annual address to the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament. In his speech, Zelenskyy outlined how in the past 10 months Ukraine has emerged as one of the global leaders and has been instrumental in promoting the values of strength and freedom from tyranny. First, emphasised the role of Ukraine in uniting the EU to combat the energy crisis due to decreased supply of Russian oil and gas. Second, outlined the plans for 2023 which include restarting EU membership negotiations, developing indigenous missiles, boosting their security and digitising public services and permits. Third, highlighted increasing Ukraine’s presence in green energy, and grain exports to secure ties with countries in Africa and Global South. Fourth, addressed the ongoing efforts to rebuild destroyed territories and stressed the importance of coming together to ensure the return of normality in Ukraine. Lastly, Zelenskyy announced the establishment of a tribunal which would look into the crimes committed by the Russian forces and develop a compensation mechanism for all the victims. 

On 28 December, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry released a statement condemning the visit of Russian Presidential Administration official Sergey Kiriyenko to the Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The ministry highlighted how the visit of Kiriyenko violates the IAEA’s guidelines which called for the withdrawal of Russian troops and officials from the power plant. The Ministry urged the IAEA members to cease nuclear cooperation with Russia and suspend the rights and privileges of Russia in the IAEA.  

On 28 December, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry announced that in the past two days 11 vessels have left the ports of Greater Odesa to Africa, Asia and Europe under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Ministry said that around 422,000 tonnes of agricultural goods have left the ports and added that: “Among them are the ALANDA STAR bulker with 30,800 tonnes of wheat for Egypt and the EUROCHAMPION tanker with 45,000 tonnes of [sunflower] oil for India.” The Ministry added that the main obstacle in the working of the grain corridor is the delay in inspections by Russia. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 December, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticized the ten-point agenda proposal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelnskyy saying that it ignores reality. Peskov said that the “peace plan” proposed by Ukraine ignores reality as it does not acknowledge the four new regions annexed by Russia and added that Russia will not be following it. The peace plan for the Global Peace Summit was proposed by Zelnskyy to discuss his ten-point “peace formula” in February 2023 at the UN. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that for any peace talks to resume between the two countries, Ukraine must recognise the annexation of the four new regions in order to: “Prevent the creation and continuation of any threats to our security from Ukrainian territory.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 28 December, the French Minister of Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu announced the setting up of a EUR 200 million innovative fund to help Ukraine purchase arms from French manufacturers directly. Speaking from Kyiv, Lecornu said that both France and Ukraine are working on a “common agenda” which will outline France’s military support to Ukraine. He also promised more military aid to Ukraine from the French army and outlined future plans to supply the MAMBA anti-missile system. The Ministry stated that they will be training the Ukrainian personnel to use the missile system before its delivery so that it could be deployed immediately. 

On 28 December, the Lithuanian Interior Ministry said that over EUR 86.78 million of Russian and Belarusian companies’ funds have been frozen by the Financial Crime Investigation Service (FNTT). This was a result of the sanctions imposed by the FNTT on nine Russian and six Belarusian companies and one Belarusian individual on 20 December. Some of the sanctioned companies are Inter RAO Lietuva, Lifosa, EuroChem Logistics International, PhosAgro Baltic, Vydmantai Wind Park, and IDS Borjomi Europe. 

On 28 December, the UK Defence Ministry released its intelligence update where it reported on the movement of Russian Forces in Kremina. According to the Ministry, Kremina located in the Luhansk Oblast has seen increasing reinforcements by the Russians at the frontline amid renewed pressure from Ukraine. The Ministry outlined that Kremina is an important town for Russia in the Luhansk Oblast and a strategic frontline town for Donbas.   

References
President of Ukraine delivered the annual Message to the Verkhovna Rada and presented state awards to Ukrainian defenders,” president.gov.ua, 28 December 2022
Statement of the MFA of Ukraine on Russia's New Illegal Actions against the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,” mfa.gov.ua, 28 December 2022
Eleven grain ships leave Ukrainian ports in past two days,” Ukrinform, 28 December 2022
Ukrainian proposal is not ‘a peace plan’ – Kremlin,” RT, 28 December 2022
Ukraine 'peace plan' must factor in Russia’s four new regions, Kremlin emphasizes,” Tass, 28 December 2022
Felipe Dana, Renata Brito and Angela Charlton “French defense chief visits Ukraine, pledges more support,” AP News, 28 December 2022
French defence minister promises more military support for Ukraine,” Euronews, 28 December 2022
€87m of Russian, Belarusian companies’ funds frozen in Lithuania,” LRT.Lt, 28 December 2022
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 28 December 2022,” Twitter, 28 December 2022


28 December 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #395

Spain's third relief package; EU's Fit for 55 | War in Ukraine: Day 307

Estonia's President vows support to Ukraine; France's emission level reaches its peak; Japan's Ambassador to Hungary talks about Japan's bilateral relations

Photo : CITEPA/LESECHOS


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew

ESTONIA
President assures support to Ukraine 
On 24 December, President of Estonia, Alar Karis in an interview to an Estonian News Portal spoke of Estonia’s stand on the war between Russia and Ukraine. The President spoke of Estonia’s continuing support for Ukraine, and the significance of this support. The president responded to a question about his statement about Putin’s war, saying he still supports what he spoke, the war being Putin’s and not Russia’s war. He spoke on how Estonia is managing with inflation and power cuts, which are being caused due to energy shortage in Europe. (“President Karis: You can be for peace when the war is over,” news.err.ee, 24 December 2022)


FRANCE
Peak emission levels leave no space for climate goals
On 27 December, LesEchos reported on the Citepa estimate on France’s greenhouse gas emissions levels in 2022. France’s gas distribution service GRDF found that, the number of nuclear reactors which were shut down due to corrosion or repair issues has led France to use more gas to produce electricity. To meet the constant supply of energy, the government has allowed the fire power plants to operate at “full capacity” resulting in massive climate impact. The last nine months there have been no slight variation in the gas emissions and Citepa estimated that only 0.3 per cent of CO2 reduced of 306.8 million tonnes. It recommends to “double the rate of reduction of emissions” for France to achieve the 2050 carbon neutrality target. In terms of sectorial contribution, industrial emission were down by five per cent whereas transport sector showed a increase of four per cent. (Muryel Jacque, “Overconsumption of gas prevents CO2 emissions from being reduced in France,” LesEchos, 27 December 2022)
 
SPAIN
President announces third relief package to curb inflation
On 27 December, Spain’s President Pedro Sanchez, announced an aid package worth 10 billion euros for easing inflation and the rising cost-of-living. This relief package covers one-time bonus for 4.2 million households, whose annual incomes fall below 27,000 euros. The tax cuts introduced earlier this year for energy bills have been extended till the first half of 2023. The past relief packages have shown some success in controlling inflation as it has come down to 6.7 per cent, which is also the lowest rate of inflation among all the EU countries. The president also announced measures to extend subsidies on train travel for an year. (“Spain announces $10.6 billion package to ease inflation pain,” euronews.com, 27 December 2022)

THE UK
National Health Service use AI tools to bring down stroke casualties
On 27 December, the UK’s Department of Health and Social Care released a report on the use of Artificial Intelligence in the healthcare industry. It is assisting patient recovery by an impressive amount of 48 per cent. Before the technology was implemented widely, patient recovery was calculated to be just around 16 per cent. Use of AI in the field has assisted in this massive improvement in recovery rates, said the Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay. The health conditions primarily affected are strokes, which affect 85,000 people in the UK every year. The AI software has bee developed and being run by Accelerated Access Collaboration situated at National Health Service England and the NHS AI Lab. One of the largest companies involved in the development of AI software is the UK based Brainomix which has developed the e-Stroke Technology that can detect the future chances of having a stroke in patients. (“Artificial intelligence revolutionising NHS stroke care,” gov.uk, 27 December 2022)
 
Police report reveals massive failure of catalytic converter thefts
On 27 December, the UK police released a report on the increasing number of unsolved cases involving the theft of vehicle catalytic converters. Data from the department points out that only one percent of the total cases being reported are getting cracked by the police. The rest of the cases are remaining as backlogs in the records. The thieves are mainly interested in the metal content of the catalytic converters, which they remove and get sold separately. As the inflation and cost-of-living rise in the UK the number of such cases are seeing a rise, read the statement issued by the Home Office. The solution to the menace is being touted as to recruit more police officers, and better implementation of community policing efforts. There was significant reduction of theft cases since 2020, with the implementation of the “National Infrastructure Crime Reduction Partnership” but the cases are on the rise again. (Chas Geiger, “Police are solving only 1% of catalytic converter thefts, data suggests,” BBC, 27 December 2022)

REGIONAL
EU plans ahead on its ‘Fit for 55’ program
On 27 December, EURACTIV reported on the policies for aviation, maritime, and road transport sectors, under EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ climate law package. The EU presidency Council will be headed by Sweden in January 2023. First, in the aviation sector, EU has allowed for the cheaper long-haul flights to continue operate upon refueling “sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).”  Second, travel within the EU would have to pay for 100 percent of their emissions and the ships must use lower-carbon fuels over heavy oil and pay 50 percent of their emissions. The third, road transport said that petrol and diesel cars are to be banned form 2035 onwards and “shift to electric vehicles, consigning the internal combustion engine to automotive history.” (Sean Goulding Carroll, “Finish line nears for ‘Fit for 55’ transport laws,” EURACTIV, 27 December 2022)
 
CLIMATE
Finland’s carbon sinks under threat
On 26 December, researchers from Finland’s University of Luke, found that the gradual loss of Finland’s forest cover cost close from EUR two to seven billion. Currently the price set for compensation is at EUR 80 per tonne of carbon dioxide, but the researchers estimate it to be only EUR 40 per tonne. Finland’s spokesperson to the European Commission said that the bill could be valued for billions, but such bill will not be passed if there is a lag in Finland’s target in 2025. Although the climate change division has warned Finland for saving the carbon sinks and modify its climate plan for land use, Finland might not be able to fulfill its climate obligations due to non-compliance. (“The collapse of Finland’s carbon sinks is a national emergency, an expert tells YLE,” nord.news, 26 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Japan’s Ambassador comments on bilateral ties with Hungary
On 26 December, Japan’s Ambassador to Budapest, Masato Otaka, gave an interview to the Daily News Hungary, in which he spoke of Japan-Hungary relations. He spoke of Hungary being a favourable investment destination for Japan, and trade increasing over the years between the two countries. He spoke of the shared history, and how 2019 was a milestone year for Japan-Hungary ties, which began in 1869 with the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Japanese Empire. Responding to a question about the energy crisis affecting Japan, he said that Japan has diversified its energy sources, and had distributed them between Qatar, US and Australia. Oil imports were mainly from the middle east. He also spoke of the rich cultural heritage of Hungary and how it is becoming a major tourist destination for Japanese people. (Alpár Kató, “Japan’s ambassador to Hungary on mutual relations, Bartók-Kodály-Liszt music, North Korea and more – INTERVIEW,” dailynewshungary.com, 26 December 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 307
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 27 December, Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Naval force division reported on the presence of 10 Russian warships with containing 16 Kalibr cruise missiles in the Black Sea. So far in the Mediterranean Sea, nine Russian warships, five Kalibr category cruise missiles holding 72 missiles are present. It also observed the movement of 17 vessels in the Sea of Azov and 14 in the Black Sea which have moved in and out of the Bosphorus Strait.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 27 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree announcing a special measure in fuel and energy sector. In the Decree: “On the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the establishment by some foreign states of the maximum price for Russian oil and oil products.” The announcement comes in response to the price cap imposed by the US, the EU, G7, and Australia on Russian seaborne crude oil. The ban will come be in effect from 01 February to 01 July 2023. Through this Russia will no longer export its oil and oil products to the countries which adopted the price cap.

On 27 December, RT reported on Ukraine’s decision to increase the transit fee of Russian oil that is sent via Druzhba pipeline from 01 January 2023. It predicts the increase of the crude transport to Hungary and Slovakia by EUR 2.10 per tonne, which will be 18.3 per cent increase. Transneft spokesman Igor Demin confirmed on the same, this marks the third time raise in the fee since April. Druzhba which is one of the longest pipelines has the capacity to transit oil to 4000 kilometres from Russia to Eastern European countries has now come under spotlight.

On 27 December, RT reported on the Russian arms manufacturer “Kalashnikov Group” decision to increase its “New line of reconnaissance and combat drones.” This is expected to speed and expand its  arms production in 2023 into new Chukavin SVCh sniper rifle (tactical drones), modern unmanned aerial vehicles, PPK-20 submachine gun and SVCh rifles which have high precision capacity to take down targets from 1200 metres.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 27 December, the Germany government approved arms exports amounting to EUR 8.9 billion, the second highest grant so far. Although Germany faces criticism for giving lethal aid to Ukraine, its reversal of military policy is seen as a turning point. The decision has irked the parliamentary defense committee, Chairwoman who criticised Germany for short-sighted vision and stressed for a better strategy to deal the Ukraine war.

On 27 December, the Swedish government announced an additional aid of EUR 19 million for Ukraine. The aid will be sent through the UK’s international support fund initiative to help Ukraine defence up its army capabilities. According to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson: “The freedom and independence of the Ukrainian people is a prerequisite for a safe and secure Europe.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 27 December, electricity manufacturer in Ukraine YASNO in reported that Ukraine was receiving stable level of electricity that was sufficient to distribute through temporary network installed. According to the Director, the temporary network is predicted to help maintain the electricity but is the possibility of the equipment behaviour remains uncertain.

References
Ten Russian warships combat ready in Black Sea,” Ukrinform, 27 December 2022
Sweden has additionally allocated more than $19 million in military aid to Ukraine,” fakty.com.ua, 27 December 2022
Decree on the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the establishment by some foreign states of the maximum price for Russian oil and oil products,” Kremlin.ru, 27 December 2022
Ukraine to hike transit fees for Russian oil to EU – Transneft,” RT, 27 December 2022
Iconic Russian arms maker boosts production,” RT, 27 December 2022
Ukraine updates: Germany spent €2.24 billion on military aid,” Deutsche Welle, 27 December 2022
Kyiv receiving stable amounts of electricity – YASNO,” Ukrinform, 27 December 2022


27 December 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #394

CIS summit; UK's mini robots to fix pipe leaks; Silent march in Paris | War in Ukraine: Day 306

Photo : Kremlin.ru


In Brief
By Allen Joe Mathew

RUSSIA
CIS summit shows positive trade and security cooperation
On 26 December, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held an informal summit with the leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He highlighted the growing trade, technological sovereignty, industrial production, and maintain of security in the Eurasian region. In the meet, Kazakhstan's President Tokaev Kasym-Jomart Kemelevich highlighted the increase in the economic growth by 11 per cent and Astana summit. He also added the cooperation in combatting terrorism, Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway, and supporting the space for Russian language. The meet reflected the joint effort in building cooperation amongst the CIS. (“Informal CIS summit,” Kremlin.ru, 26 December 2022)
 
SWITZERLAND
Local gas work association plans to build gas terminal despite objection
On 25 December, a plan to build a gas terminal which would be able to store up to 150 gas containers for a year was announced in a joint statement by 15 local gas works. The site is located at Muttenz, near Basel. If built this would be Switzerland’s first Liquified Natural Gas storage facility, and is aimed at reducing the countries dependency on pipelines and a need for constant supply. Previously environmental organizations had raised their concerns over the project. The proposal comes after the Swiss government agreed to address the energy shortage. ("Plans for first Swiss liquefied gas terminal mooted," swissinfo.ch, 25 December 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Italy puts on hold the Dublin regulation on asylum seekers
On 25 December, Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Migration said that Italy had suspended the provision for the return of asylum seekers. Italy and Switzerland, signatories to the Dublin regulation, which states that asylum seekers have to process their application in the country where they first arrived in. Before implementing the suspension, Italy had notified the Swiss authorities. Italy’s suspension has now led to 184 people being stuck in Switzerland. Tensions have risen in Italy due to large number migrant applications unable to get processed in due time and in Switzerland with refugee centres reaching their limit. ("Italy suspends transfer accord of asylum seekers in Switzerland," swissinfo.ch, 25 December 2022)
 
Zurich Insurance CEO classifies cyber-attacks as a grave threat for 
On 26 December, Zurich Insurance Group’s CEO, Mario Greco in an interview to the Financial Times said that the threat posed by cyber-attacks has become the riskiest till now. Comparing cyber-attacks such as ransomware hacks and other such malicious software attacks, he said that these will soon wreck as much damage equal to natural calamities. Greco stressed on the government: “..set up private-public schemes to handle systemic cyber risks that can’t be quantified, similar to those that exist in some jurisdictions for earthquakes or terror attacks.” (Ian Smith, "Cyber attacks set to become ‘uninsurable’, says Zurich chief," Financial Times, 25 December 2022)
 
MORES registers a seven-fold increase in abusive workplace behaviour
On 26 December, the Dutch centre for transgressive behaviour reported a seven-fold increase of cases over 2021. These are just limited to those pertaining to the cultural and creative sector. The factor behind the rise in the number of cases is the investigation into the prevalent practice in the media of bullying and stoking fear, conducted by NPO.  MORES board member , Amber de Vente, spoke about the complaint process saying that first the complaint goes through the hotline, then later gets assigned to a confidential advisor who contacts the complainant. Such allegations of misconduct have been widespread. ("About 400 cases of abusive workplace behavior in Dutch creative sector reported in 2022," nltimes.com, 26 December 2022)
 
UK plan to employ mini-robots to prevent pipe leaks
On 26 December, the BBC reports that miniature robots are being developed by the Integrated Civil and Infrastructure Research Centre at the University of Sheffield. These robots are to be used for patrolling water pipelines across the country, to locate and report leaks that occur in the system. Every year, according to the UK water industry economic regulator Ofwat, close to three billion litres of water gets wasted due to leakage. The robots use advanced technology to detect and report leakage in pipes and areas where failure might occur. (Victoria Gill, "Water pipe robots could stop billions of litres leaking," BBC, 26 December 2022)
 
Silent march in memory held by Kurdish community
On 26 December, members of the Kurdish community held a march in honour of the three people who were killed in the deadly mass-shooting attack that took place at a Kurdish cultural centre in Paris. The suspect was arrested on 26 December and has been placed under psychiatric care. The protestors marched from the Kurdish centre in Paris’s 10th district. In 2013, three female Kurdish activists were shot to death. French authorities have stated the motivations behind the attack as racial hatred towards other communities. Turkey has also waged into the issue, with a minister stating that the immediate violence that followed the attack was orchrestrated by the Kurdish Workers Party. ("The Kurds hold a mourning march after the shooting in Paris 3," nord.news, 26 December 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 306
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 26 December, Ukraine’s Zvezda TV reported the blasts and death of three Russians in Engels military airfield base of Russia. The place of blast is seen as the military base of Tu-95 and Tu-160 “strategic bombers.”  

On 26 December, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Ministry reported on starting the process to remove the permanent membership status of Russia from the UN. In a statement the Ministry said that the UNSC membership to Russia and the 1991 Soviet Union dissolution is “unsettled” from the international law point. It stated that: “….accordance with Article 4 of the UN Charter. It provides that the admission of peace-loving states to membership in the United Nations is effected by a decision of the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council, and only in this way. […]Therefore, the Russian Federation has never gone through the legal procedure to be admitted to membership and therefore illegally occupies the seat of the USSR in the UN Security Council.”

On 26 December, Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) reported on neutralizing more than 4500 cyber attacks launched against Ukraine. The agency’s Head, Ilya Vityuk stated that Ukraine’s preparedness for hybrid warfare and its success in deterring major cyber attacks in January and February 2022. Vityuk said: “We know by name most of the hackers from the Russian special services working against us. After Ukraine wins, a separate block of hearings of the international military tribunal will await them.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 26 December, Russian Defence Ministry claimed shooting down Ukraine’s drone that attacked its Engels airfield. According to the report, the Saratov Region which is 900 kilometres from Kyiv was attacked, where three men were found dead due to the debris resulting from the blast. Despite the death, there were no material or infra damage reported in the area.

On 26 December, RT reported on Central Bank of Russia Deputy Chairman Aleksey Zabotkin comments on Russia’s Ruble. He warned the existence of “volatility” in the Russian exchange since December and fall of the Ruble value exceeding eight month record against the USD. Zabotkin said: “The disinflationary contribution of the strengthening of the ruble, which occurred in the second half of spring and summer, has ultimately been exhausted by now.” 

On 26 December, RT reported on the France’s December survey held by “Le Journal du Dimanche,” to find the proportion of its people support to “talks plus arms,” or “peace talks.” The survey revealed that majority of people voted for arming Ukraine along with a peace solution. Seven out of 10 favoured for peace talks while providing military aid to Ukraine. The voter group included, 73 per cent of women, 75 per cent of people aged between 25 and 34. 73 per cent of public sector workers, and 72 per cent rural residents.

On 26 December, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced Russia’s intention to “restart” the supply of natural gas to the EU through Yamal-Europe Pipeline. Apart from the Yamal pipeline, Nord Stream was also stopped by Russia upon payment condition by Ruble and sanctions. Although through a transit line in Ukraine and TurkStream pipeline Russia has been sending gas, EU is seen a workable market for Russia.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 26 December, in an interview with the AP, Ukraine’s Foreign Minster Dmytro Kuleba announced the government’s demand for a “peace summit” at the UN by February to bring the war to an end. He stressed on avoiding the participation of Russia in the summit, with the AP observes it as not plausible way to end war. He said: “Every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.” In response, the UN stated that it could mediate a meet only upon the consent of all parties. Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded: “..never followed conditions set by others. Only our own and common sense.”

On 26 December, Deutsche Welle reported on Belarusian Defence Ministry statement on the preparedness of the S-400 air defense system and the Iskander tactical missile systems sent by Russia. The Iskander missile systems which are capable to carry conventional and nuclear warheads can target up to 500 kilometres to reach Ukraine and Poland. Whereas the S-400 is a Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) with capacity to target aircraft, UAV’s, cruise missiles, and terminal ballistic missiles. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 26 December, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy where they discussed on G20, facilitating education for Indian students, and Ukraine war. Modi stressed on ending the hostility situation and reiterated his support for diplomacy and peace efforts to end the war.
 
On 26 December, Ukrinform reported on UAE’s first delivery of 1200 generators for Ukraine. The delivery comes part of the agreement between UAE and Ukraine under humanitarian aid. These will be used in health facility, education institutions, critical infra in the “Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Kyiv.” The next set of 1200 is expected to come by January 2023.

On 26 December, Deutsche Welle reported on Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s comments on China’s intention to improve ties with Russia in 2023. He stated: “..deepen strategic mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation.” In terms of the Ukraine war, Yi maintained that China has held “..fundamental principles of objectivity and impartiality,” as its position without siding with either of the party.

References
Средства ПВО сбили на малой высоте при подлете к военному аэродрому,” Zvezdanews/Telegram, 26 December 2022
Ukraine initiates Russia’s exclusion from United Nations,” Ukrinform, 26 December 2022
SBU neutralizes over 4,500 Russian cyberattacks this year,” Ukrinform, 26 December 2022
Three killed in Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfield – MoD,” RT, 26 December 2022
French reveal their priorities on Ukraine crisis – poll,” RT, 26 December 2022
Russian central bank explains ruble’s slide,” RT, 26 December 2022
Russia ready to resume gas supplies to EU – official,” RT, 26 December 2022
The AP Interview: Ukraine FM aims for February peace summit,” AP news, 26 December 2022
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy speaks to PM Modi about G20, thanks India for aid and UN support,” The Hindu, 26 December 2022
UAE delivers first shipment of generators for Ukraine, second expected in January,” Ukrinform, 26 December 2022
"Ukraine updates: Kyiv aims for February peace summit," Deutsche Welle, 26 December 2022


22 December 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #390

UK's ambulance worker strike; Baltic-Nordic annual meet | War in Ukraine: Day 301

Lithuania's border fence with Belarus nears completion; Lower consumption leads to energy crisis reduction in France; Middle East and Europe discuss Iraq crisis in Jordan

Photo : Henry Nicholls/Reuters/The New York Times


IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew

FINLAND
New reform to remodel the healthcare services 
On 23 June 2021, Finland’s Parliament passed a law transferring the healthcare services from the country’s 293 municipalities to the 21 regional authorities and independently, the city of Helsinki. These reforms are to begin from 2023 onwards and include a whole array of new strategies. The reforms have been made following a provincial model of implementation. The services have also been renamed to now known as ‘wellbeing service county’. The reforms are not just in names or division of responsibilities but have also been done keeping in mind to decrease the costs. They also include a generous package to encourage the use and faster adoption of digital services. The reform do not address about the funding, this might lead to tightening of funding and a possible shortage of healthcare workers. (“What structural changes should be expected from Finland’s public healthcare reform?,” yle.fi, 21 December 2022)
 
FRANCE
Risk of energy shortage slightly reduced due to reduced consumer demand
On 20 December, France’s grid operator, RTE published a statement saying that the country is no longer in danger of facing an energy shortage. The overall consumption and demand from the consumers have become lower, in line with the government’s recommendations. The French government had earlier recommended that households and businesses should aim to reduce their electricity usage by at least 10 per cent. As of now, there is a nine per cent reduction which has led to France coming out of the red zone. Another development that has assisted in this has been the greater output generated by Nuclear and hydropower plants. The power utility company EDF has listed out some risks too that are being faced due to increased production. (“Reduced energy consumption helps lower threat to French power supply,” France24, 20 December 2022)
 
LITHUANIA
Border fence installation with Belarus completed
On 20 December, Lithuanian border forces revealed in a statement that the defence forces had stopped the regular and constant patrolling of its shared border with Belarus. This development came to be as the border fence between the countries nears completion. The border fence covers most of the entire length and has been built by Lithuania. It also includes surveillance systems that will assist in enhancing border security. The work had begun after the migrant refugee crisis during the summer of 2021. More than 19,200 migrants have been turned away since 03 August 2021, earlier nearly 4,200 migrants had managed to cross over into Lithuania. (Augustas Stankevicius, “Lithuanian troops stop patrolling Belarusian border,” lrt.lt, 20 December 2022)

THE UK
Ambulance Workers strike higher pay and better working conditions
On 21 December, ambulance workers in England and Wales hit the streets to protest and raise voices for their demands. Driven by inflation and an overload of duties on the current employees, their demands ranged from the revision of the pay scale to better conditions at work. The major complaint was about overtime and underpaid hours that they were forced to do. They also demanded that the government recruit more employees for the health service function more smoothly. The workers are all part of one of the three workers' unions that called for the strike, and nearly 20,000 workers took part in the walkout nationwide. The government did not respond in kind to the protest saying that it is disappointed due to these developments and would in the future take strong action against any such strike or walkouts. (“U.K. Ambulance Workers Stage Their Largest Walkout in Decades,” The New York Times, 21 December 2022)
 
The UK aviation authority clears the path for Virgin Orbit launch
On 21 December, the Civil Aviation Authority of the UK gave the final clearance for Virgin Orbit to conduct space launch operations from its soil. This is after a 15-month period where it was being checked whether the company met all requirements for such operations or not. For such an operation there are a lot of safety regulations which are to be completed and tested, and all the authorities have done a thorough inspection of the procedures undertaken by the company, said a statement issued by the UK Transport Secretary Mark Harper. With this landmark decision, the UK wants to get on par with other space competitors and get going in the space race. It is estimated to bring in a lot of investment too, touted to be 16.5 billion euros and generate a whopping 47,000 and 2,500 apprentices that will open up huge avenues for the people. The first mission is named ‘Start Me Up’ and will be launched from the Spaceport Cornwall, a highly modified Boeing 747 jumbo jet is to carry the rocket to be released. (“UK space regulator issues Virgin Orbit licences ahead of UK launch,” gov.uk, 21 December 2022)

REGIONAL
Cyprus plans to process natural gas from Israel for export
On 20 December, while the war between Russia and Ukraine rages on, Cyprus sees an opportunity to become an alternate energy provider for Europe. Considering this the country is thinking of importing natural gas from Israel and processing it into liquefied form and then reading it for export. Cyprus’ Energy Minister Natasa Pilides stated that the first step would be the construction of a plant for processing large amounts of natural gas, the plans for which are what is on the table at the present. The country is in talks with an energy company, Energean, for the construction of a pipeline. This would be finalized once Israel agrees on how much gas it will export to the Mediterranean country. Other energy giants are also in the fray with major companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Qatar Petroleum and Dutch Shell. The minister also spoke about transitioning to green energy and investing in areas such as solar energy. (Menelaos Hadjicostis, “Cyprus: Plant to process Israeli gas for export an option,” independent.co.uk, 20 December 2022)

Baltic-Nordic annual meeting focuses on regional security
On 19 December, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto visited Riga in Latvia to meet Latvia’s President Egils Levits. He discussed regional security, bilateral cooperation and Nordic-Baltic with Levits before the Joint Expeditionary Force member states leaders meeting. They agreed to increase their support to Ukraine, in accordance with the Baltic-Nordic summit held on 09 September. In a joint press conference with Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda, Estonia’s President Alars Karis, and President Levits discussed regional security, the Ukraine war, linking the electricity grids with Europe and the development of the Rail Baltica project. The importance of supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia was prominent in their discussion. The Baltic leader pledged to continue economic, military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. (“Baltic and Finnish Presidents meeting in Rīga,” Eng.LSM.lv, 19 December 2022)
  
INTERNATIONAL
Jordan hosts leaders from Middle East and Europe to discuss the Iraq crisis
On 20 December, leaders from across Europe and the Middle East came together at a joint meeting in Jordan to discuss the domestic security and the conditions prevailing in Iraq. The country has been through turmoil for the past many years, starting with the 2003 US-led invasion and then the subsequent political instability with the rise and fall of ISIS. This meeting is being seen as the second edition of the Baghdad Conference which was co-organized by France in 2021 and was held in Baghdad. France President, Emmanuel Macron, stated that France’s interests in the stability of the region which also reflects on the security of the Mediterranean basin. The other leaders in attendance were from Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan’s King and the Crown Prince. The foreign ministers of Saudi, Iran, Bahrain, Oman, and Kuwait were also present and spoke of how they viewed the situation and provided suggestions. The chief of the Arab League called for peace and sovereignty in Iraq. (“Middle Eastern, European leaders meet in Jordan to discuss security in Iraq,” france24, 20 December 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 301
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 20 December, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba addressed the Georgia Ukraine Azerbaijan Moldova Organization (GUAM)’s ministerial meeting virtually. Kuleba said that Ukraine will take a decisive and productive role during its GUAM presidency in 2023 despite the ongoing war with Russia. Kuleba pointed out five priorities that will be addressed during Ukraine’s GUAM presidency in 2023. First, Guam member states’ protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Second, the establishment of new economic opportunities and development in trade between European and Asian markets; third, the development of the free trade zone’s full functions; fourth, dialogue with the European Commission on the GUAM Transport Corridor; fifth, customs procedures simplification and an extensive approach to logistics within GUAM Transport Corridor. Kuleba also urged the GUAM member states to condemn Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and place sanctions against it.

On 21 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the US to meet President Joseph Biden to discuss extensive cooperation between both countries. The cooperation aimed to strengthen Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Zelenskyy also met with the US Congress’ House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Zelenskyy requested further military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine from the US Congress. In his address at the joint meeting of the US Congress, Zelenskyy stated: “Your money is not charity. It’s an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way,” about the US aid to Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 December, TASS reported that following several months of investigation, there was no evidence pointing to Russia as the perpetrator behind the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline explosions. According to TASS, 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials from nine countries including from the CIA claimed that there was no proof found Russia sabotaging the pipelines. They were interviewed by the Washington Post. According to the investigations, the saboteur remains unclear.

On 21 December, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin virtually launched the new Siberian gas field which increases gas export to China. The Kovykta gas field will supply Russian gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. The gas field contains recoverable reserves of 1.8 trillion cubic metres. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 21 December, US President Biden issued economic, military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine during his joint press conference with Zelenskyy. Biden stated that he approved a USD 1.85 billion military aid package to Ukraine. The package will include a direct transfer of equipment and artillery, tanks and rocket launchers ammunition supply. The package will also include a Patriot missile battery, which will be provided to Ukraine to strengthen its air defence. Biden also announced that the total amount of humanitarian assistance provided by the US to Ukraine on 21 December was USD 2.2 billion. Biden said that the US Congress had unanimously approved an additional USD 45 billion in funds for Ukraine. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) also pledged USD 374 million in humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian people. The USAID’s assistance will provide food and monetary help to Ukrainians.

On 21 December, Reuters reported that Belarus announced restricting access to a part of the border zone with Russia and Ukraine temporarily. The Gomel region in the southeastern part of Belarus that borders Russia and Ukraine will have temporary restrictions on entering, staying and moving within the Loevsky, Braginsky and Khoiniki districts of the region. Belarusian government said that the restriction would not apply to officials, workers and residents of the regions. However, it did not mention the duration of the restriction.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 December, Reuters reported that the World Bank had approved a USD 610 million urgent financial package to address Ukraine’s immediate recovery and relief needs amid the ongoing war with Russia. The package will include an additional USD 500 million loan from World Bank’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The USD 610 million financial package will fund the Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance (PEACE) project, which covers government expenditures relating to family and children benefits, public employees’ salaries, and utility payments and Health Enhancement and Life-saving (HEAL) project, which will help in restoring and improving access to healthcare services in Ukraine. The World Bank package is in addition to its USD 18 billion aid, out of which USD 15 billion had already been disbursed.

On 21 December, during his meeting with Russia’s former President and Security Council Chairman, Dmitry Medvedev, President Xi Jinping said: “China together with Russia intends to facilitate a fairer and more rational implementation of global governance.” Xi wants China and Russia to have a stable bilateral interaction and follow both countries’ long-term strategic interests. He also said that China will have a new approach to its bilateral relations with Russia.

References
Dmytro Kuleba named the five main priorities of the presidency of Ukraine in GUAM in 2023,” mfa.gov.ua, 20 December 2022
The President of Ukraine went to the USA on an official visit,” president.gov.ua, 21 December 2022
In Washington, the President of Ukraine met with the speaker of the House of Representatives and senators from the Republican and Democratic parties,” president.gov.ua, 22 December 2022
Aishvarya Kavi, “Full Transcript of Zelensky’s Speech Before Congress,” the New York Times, 21 December 2022
No evidence of Russia behind Nord Stream attack — newspaper,” TASS, 21 December 2022
Launch ceremony of Kovykta gas field,” kremlin.ru, 21 December 2022
Remarks by President Biden and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine in Joint Press Conference,” whitehouse.gov, 21 December 2022
Belarus restricts access to parts of region bordering Ukraine, Russia,” Reuters, 21 December 2022
Andrea Shalal, “World Bank approves additional $610 million in financing for Ukraine,” Reuters, 21 December 2022
Ana Paula Rocha, “Lula talks to Putin and highlights Brazil's commitment to “a peaceful world free of hunger,”  Brasil de Fato, 20 December 2022
China ready for rapprochement with Russia for fair global governance — Xi,” TASS, 21 December 2022


21 December 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #389

Russia's fishing agreement suspended; Italy's JTF | War in Ukraine: Day 300

Finland approves amendment for its Abortion Act; Rishi Sunak visits Estonia; Former Greek MEP Eva Kaili admits guilty to the corruption charges

Photo : Borneobulletin


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Allen Joe Mathew

DENMARK
The government’s loan scheme on energy bills used by fewer people than expected
On 20 December, the Local dk reported that the previous government’s energy bill loan scheme was used by fewer people than initially expected. The loan scheme’s purpose was to relieve businesses and households by delaying energy bill payments. Anything excess of 2021’s last quarter energy price was given the option to be frozen and can be paid later. The delayed payment only includes the additional cost and not the entire energy bill. The government had allocated DKK 45 billion for the loan scheme out of which only DKK 85 million was used by households and businesses. Private households are the majority to have used the energy loan scheme out of the limited users. The majority of the business rejected the scheme due to the fear of incurring debt. The businesses complained that the interest rate was high at 4.4 per cent and the annual fees incurred if the loan is used by businesses. (“Danish homes and businesses reluctant to use government’s energy loan scheme,” the Local dk, 20 December 2022)

FINLAND
Government accepts the amendments to the Abortion Act
On 20 December 2022, the Finnish President approved an amendment to the country’s existing Abortion Act. The new amendment in line with the Oma tahto 2020 citizens’ recommendations got approved after the report submitted by the Social Affairs and Health committee. The amendments are considered to be a landmark decision by the Finnish authorities that will help women more in their right to self-determination. The act mandates that for terminating a pregnancy before the end of twelve weeks only the assent of the woman is required. Earlier it was not so, yet for pregnancies after the twelfth week such a provision has only been given for special cases when the woman’s life is in danger and complications arise. The act also provides for counselling and psychological support services. The amendments are to come into force on 01 September 2023, as other associated decrees are left to be amended which will ensure that the act is implemented properly. (Amendments to the Abortion Act approvedvaltioneuvosto.fi, 20 December 2022)

THE UK
Government offers GBP 30 million for low carbon heating in three cities
On 20 December, the UK government will fund GBP 30 million to benefit households and businesses in three communities for delivering low carbon heat and help them phase-out fossil fuel usage. The Green Heat Network Fund (GHNF) worth GBP 288 million was first secured by projects in Hull and Petersborough in March. The GHNF looks to offer centralized heating source to buildings that aims to cut carbon emissions and lower the usage of expensive fossil fuels. The low carbon heat delivery system will use heat pumps, solar and geothermal energy. The GHNF will boost the usage of low carbon technologies. Hull and Petersborough will receive GBP 27 million to support the low carbon heat delivery system and Wigan city in the UK will also recieve GBP 2.6 million from the fund. The GHNF will help the UK achieve its carbon reduction commitment. (“First Green Heat Network Fund awards for cutting-edge low carbon energy projects,” gov.uk, 20 December 2022)

REGIONAL
Rishi Sunak promises to increase the UK’s military presence in Estonia
On 20 December, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the UK would increase its military capabilities in Estonia during his visit to the Baltic state. The UK had promised to send a battalion to Estonia to create a division headquarters at the NATO Madrid summit in June, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite the UK withdrawing its troops from Estonia earlier in December, Sunak had pledged for more troops to help the Estonian armed forces against threats. He said: “we're keeping other resources at readiness so that they can be deployed here at a moment's notice and we're going to increase the amount of exercises we do here in Estonia. You will see that next year when helicopters arrive.” Sunak promised that the UK will be commited to Estonia and its security by creating its divisional headquarters in Estonia. (“Sunak in Estonia: UK is delivering on NATO Madrid summit commitments,” news.err.ee, 12 December 2022)

Former EU Politician Eva Kaili admits guilty
On 20 December, Eva Kaili who is currently in jail admitted to the accusations against her by Belgian authorities. The authorities were investigating corruption, and cases of money laundering within the European Parliament, as it was felt that the lawmakers were being influenced by foreign powers. Kaili’s husband Francesco Giorgi have both been placed behind bars for the time being as it emerged that Giorgi was part of a plan to funnel bribes from Qatar and Morocco to influence parliamentary decisions of the EU. The corruption scandal was being headed by a former Italian MEP named Pier Antonio Panzeri. Eva Kaili finally accepted that she directed her father to hide bags full of cash and gifts that she received from Qatar as part of their lobbying efforts. (Reports: EU corruption scandal politician partly confessesDeutsche Welle, 20 December 2022)
 
Amazon announces policy changes after EU pressure
On 20 December, Amazon announced its decision to concede to demands and change its policies which will now comply with the EU laws. The areas where the tussle was going on were the gathering and storage of sellers’ activities, visibility of products and the relating to delivery options especially in Amazon Prime. On 19 December, the European Commission for anti-competitive practices issued a statement through Margrethe Vestager, the competition commissioner that Amazon won’t use third party sellers data for its own benefit, and secondly, Amazon will not restrict other sellers’ from being visible on its premium platform “Amazon Prime.” These are not short-term changes as these are to be in force for seven years from now. (Amazon settles EU antitrust rowDeutsche Welle, 20 December 2022)

Sweden's refusal of Bulent Kenes’ extradition criticized by Turkey
On 20 December, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Sweden’s refusal to asylum seeker Bulent Kenes extradition was a negative development on Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. He said: “We no longer want to hear good words from Sweden and Finland, we want to see concrete steps.” Kenes was a journalist who worked as an editor-in-chief in the English-language Today’s Zaman, which was said to have links with terrorist organizations. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mentioned Kenes belonging to the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) and asked Sweden to return him to Turkey. However, Sweden’s Supreme Court rejected Kenes’ extradition stating that his alleged crime was not criminalized in Sweden. Sweden’s Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer said that the final decision on Kenes’ extradition will be made by the Council of Ministers, following Supreme Court’s ruling. Cavusoglu criticized Sweden for not following the Tripatriate agreement it signed with Turkey and Finland for their NATO membership approval. (“Turkey criticized Sweden for the decision not to extradite the journalist, also mentioned Finland,” hs.fi, 20 December 2022; “Sweden blocking extradition of FETÖ fugitive is 'very negative': FM,” Daily Sabah, 20 December 2022; Faruk Zorlu, “Türkiye expects ‘not kind words but concrete steps’ from Sweden, Finland to address its concerns,” Andalou Agency, 20 December 2022)

ENERGY
Italy receives EUR one billion for clean energy transition
On 20 December, the EU allocated EUR one billion to Italy under the Just Transition Fund (HTF) following its Territorial Just Transition Plan (TJTP) coming into fruition. The fund will help Italy diversify its economy, create employment in the green energy sector. The fund will also help Italy to have a clean energy transition and a circular economy. The inclusion of women in the labour force will also be enhanced by the fund. Construction and development of renewable energy infrastructures and phasing out of fossil fuel is included in the fund. The JTF will ensure that Italy transit towards a climate neutral economy across every demography of its society. (“EU Cohesion Policy: €1 billion for a just climate transition in Italy,” ec.europa.eu, 20 December 2022)

MARITIME
The UK and the EU agree on GBP 280 million worth fishing opportunities in 2023
On 20 December reached a deal with the EU for fishing opportunities of 140,000 tonnes worth GBP 280 million in 2023. Both parties agreed to have catch level for 69 fish stocks including North Sea Nephrops, Anglerfish and Western hake. The agreement also includes protection of the fishing stocks and the marine environment. The EU and the UK will work together to provide sustainable fisheries management in the North Sea. The UK had also signed an agreement with Norway and North East Atlantic coastal States for fishing opportunities. According to the agreement, the EU’s fleet will get more than 74 stocks and over 350,000 tonnes worth EUR one billion in the Northeast Atlantic The total value of the fishing opportunities acquired by the UK fishing industry for 2023 is GBP 750 million. (“Increased fishing opportunities worth £750 million agreed for 2023,” gov.uk, 20 December 2022; “Sustainable fisheries: EU and UK agree on fishing opportunities for 2023,” ec.europa.eu, 20 December 2022)

Decline of fish stock leads suspension of fishing agreement between Greenland and Russia
On 20 December, Greenland’s government shelved its fishing arrangements with Russia for 2023 due to depleting stocks of several species. Greenland had the access to fish Russian cod in the Barents Sea and Russia was allowed to fish halibut in Greeland’s maritime zone, since 1992 agreement. The war in Ukraine was not mentioned by the Denmark’s Fishery Ministry of Greenland. However, Prime Minister Mute Egede said that Greenland will follow EU sanctions against Russia in October. (“Greenland suspends fishing agreement with Russia,” the Local dk, 20 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
UK revokes duties on Indian stainless-steel products
On 20 December, the Department for International Trade of the UK had imposed duties on stainless steel products from India. These were believed to be under-priced due to subsidies in the home country, and thus were seen to be posing a danger to the UK's own steel industry. On 01 April 2021, the Trade Remedies Authority, an independent body to investigate unfair trade practices, started to probe into the usefulness of the countervailing measures. The report they produced said that there has not been any major effect and revoking the measures will not affect the domestic industry in a negative manner. The reasons for this were mainly that the UK’s manufactures were aimed at export and the country needed imports which are cheaper for its own use. This finally led to the decision to remove the measures. (UK proposes measures on stainless steel from India be removedDeutsche Welle, 20 December 2022)
 
IALA approved to become Official International Association
On 20 December, President of Finland, Sauli Niinisto approved the Act for the national implementation of the International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities (IALA) to officially become an international organization. The Convention had already been signed by Finland last year on 08 June 2021, but the approval took place only on 19 December. IALA operates in the safety sector of transport and helps in smooth functioning of ships with respect to navigation. For Finland, they see this as an opportunity to be a part of the committee that prepares the guidelines, giving them an influential position. Finland’s position is represented through the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency, which has been part of the earlier IALA since its founding in 1957. The convention still requires nineteen more countries to adopt and sign as the minimum threshold for the convention to be accepted is thirty countries. (Finland approves the establishment of International Organization for Marine Aids to Navigationvaltioneuvosto.fi, 20 December 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 300
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 20 December, the Kyiv Regional Military Administration reported on 80 per cent power outage in Bucha, Vyshgorod, Obukhiv districts which hold close to 30 communities. This has led to increased repair works and restoration of power supply lines.

On 20 December, Ukraine and Space Exploration Technologies Corp of Elon Musk signed a deal to receive 10,000 Starlink antennas to counter air attacks of Russia. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, the device that provide internet services will be installed at “points of invincibility locations,” to ensure the supply of power, heating and internet. The move is seen as a measure against the Russian attacks on targeted infrastructure.

On 20 December, Ukraine Armed Forces Commander reported on aircrafts and interceptors loaded with Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles were observed to be training in Belarus’s air space. In response, Ukraine has been increasing its force in the area close to Belarus.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 20 December, RT reported on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address to the security services. In the address, he appreciated the efforts of the Russia’s security services in dealing the domestic and external threats. Putin said: “Fighting terrorism remains one of the key priorities for all security services… Crowded places, strategic facilities, as well as transport and energy infrastructure must be under special control.” He stressed on the counter intelligence agencies to put an end to foreign special services and spot spies and traitors.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 20 December, The Guardian reported on Putin’s comments on the security situation in the eastern Ukraine. As per the report, Russia’s annexation order to occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson made 15 per cent of Ukraine. This is observed to have changed with increasing logistic challenges, thereby turning around Russia’s annexation goal.

On 20 December, UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace reported on Russia’s plan to send “advanced military components” to Iran in exchange of the drones. He said: “In return for having supplied more than 300 kamikaze drones…undermining both Middle East and international security.” On the same, Germany has accused Iran for delivering arms to Russia and for helping in prolonging the conflict.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 December, China announced the start of the naval drills from 21 December for China and Russia to boost the cooperation. The drills will be held in the coast of Zhejiang province till 27 December by the Eastern theatre command.

On 20 December, the IMF granted a four-month programme called as “Program Monitoring with Board involvement (PMB) for Ukraine. This is aimed to give it judicious policies and accelerate “external financing.” In a statement IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said: “Large and predictable external financial support will be critical for the success of the authorities’ strategy, and frontloaded disbursements would help address strains in early 2023.”

References
Some 80% of Kyiv region without electricity, Ukrenergo applies emergency blackouts,” Ukrinform, 20 December 2022
Russian aircraft training in air space of Belarus to clarify targets in Ukraine – Commander of Joint Forces,” Ukrinform, 20 December 2022
Volodymyr Verbyany and Daryna Krasnolutska ,“Ukraine to Get Thousands More Starlink Antennas, Minister Says,” Bloomberg, 20 December 2022
Putin sets priorities for security services,” RT, 20 December 2022
Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 301 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 20 December 2022
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy visits front-line city of Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2022

 


20 December 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #388

War in Ukraine: Day 299 | EU's temporary mechanism to limit hike in gas prices

The UK High Court approves refugee deportation to Rwanda; The EU adopts tougher laws against human trafficking; Switzerland temporarily exits UN refugee resettlement programme

Photo : consilium.europa.eu


War in Ukraine: Day 299
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 19 December, Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksandr Danylyuk reported on Russia's plan to sell west-manufactured weapons from the occupied parts of Ukraine to terrorists and radical organizations within the NATO member states. According to Ukraine’s intelligence source, the weapons are predicted to be directed to extremist groups in NATO countries to create chaos and disrupt the western weapons supply to Ukraine. He stated that Russia aims to spread misinformation about the US lack of arms control supply to Ukraine by providing the seized US weapons from Ukraine to extremist organizations.

On 19 December, Ukrinform reported that Ukrainian artists from Lviv Artists’ National Union organization held 50 auctions to raise money to aid Ukraine’s Armed Forces in the ongoing war. According to a Derehus award-winning Ukrainian Artist, Ihor Hryshkevych, the latest auction on 17 December raises UAH 200,000. The auctions help the Armed Forces financially in the war.

On 19 December, Ukrinform reported that a Russian suicidal drone attacked Ukraine’s capital Kyiv at night, damaging the city’s critical energy infrastructures. Kyiv implemented emergency power outages due to the drone attack. Engineers started to work on restoring the power and heating supply in Kyiv.   

On 19 December, Ukraine’s Zhytomyr region Mayor, Serhiy Sukhomlyn reported in a Facebook post that the region will receive 20 buses from Estonia in January 2023, free of cost. The business meeting between Zhytomyr and Tallinn representatives met to confirm Estonia’s humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The aid looks to ease Zhytomyr residents from energy and electricity issues due to interruptions from Russian attacks.

On 19 December, Ukrinform reported that Ukraine’s air defence forces from Air Command South struck down 10 Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones that were fired by Russia. The southern direction faced incoming drone attacks sent by Russia. Ukraine’s nuclear energy generator, Energoatom also reported in a Telegram post that Russia’s kamikaze drones were sighted near the Southern Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Energoatom is concerned about the risks involving an attack on nuclear power plants.  

On 19 December, Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo reported that it received energy infrastructure restoration equipment worth USD 100,000 from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The equipment is being installed in a substation affected by Russian attacks. The humanitarian aid includes devices that allow Ukrenergo to manage technological processes and monitor the substation to detect any issues on time and prevent accidents. The aid will help Ukrainians restore power supply stability throughout the winter in one region. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 December, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met with Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. The meeting will take place in a one-on-one discussion on integrated gas sector programs between Belarus and Russia. Putin, Lukashenko and their delegates will discuss various issues such as trade and economic agenda, and military, regional and international problems. Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said: “The entire spectrum of bilateral ties, trade and economic cooperation, part integration concerns,” as the meeting’s agenda. 

On 19 December, Russia’s Foreign Ministry reported on Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meet with Belarus’ Foreign Minister Sergey Aleinik to discuss the war in Ukraine and ways to resist western sanctions. They also discussed bilateral issues faced within the Union State and other Eurasian organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russia’s chairmanship in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Belarus’s chairmanship of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

On 19 December, Russia’s Defence Ministry’s reported on launch of four US-made AGM-88 HARM aircraft, which shot anti-radar missiles, were intercepted by Russian air defence systems over the Belgorod region. The Ministry added that its air defence system shot down six rockets fired from the US-made HIMARS launchers and the Soviet Uragan systems in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and the Zaporizhzhia region. The Ukrainian attacks have left the Russian region without a power supply as it had damaged Belgorod's energy infrastructure.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 19 December, the EU agreed on a temporary mechanism to limit the “excessive gas prices.” The mechanism is seen as a market correction strategy to protect the people and economies from high gas prices, and to ensure it does not affect global market, energy supplies and financial market. According to the agreement the mechanism will be activated, if the month ahead price, the TTF (Title transfer facility) goes above EUR 180 per Megawatt hour (MhW) for three continuous working days and there is an increase of EUR 35 per MhW in the global market for the same time. Once activated the price cut will remain for 20 days and the gas suppliers will be allowed to trade only within the set limit. Thereby giving no room for “Dynamic bidding limit.” This has created fear amongst Germany, as it predicts the price limit will push away the gas supplier to sell in other markets. In response, Russian spokesperson Dimitry Peskov has stated the deal as an “attack on the market pricing,” and “unacceptable.”

On 19 December, the UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will travel to Latvia to discuss countering Russia’s aggression in the Nordic and Baltic regions with Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) member states. Sunak plans to urge the JEF member states leaders to increase their support to Ukraine in 2023, more than they did in 2022. At the JEF summit, the member state officials will discuss Ukraine’s defence needs including air defence systems. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit virtually and requested aid to Ukraine from the JEF member states, especially an increase in the supply of air defence systems. The UK also announced a contract of GBP 250 million worth of artillery ammunition with Ukraine in 2023 to ensure its constant supply.

On 19 December, Latvia organizes a charity marathon, which will provide funds for the refugee children in Latvia to meet their basic needs. The marathon named “Give me five!” started on 16 December, aims to help Ukrainian children refugees in Latvia. The charity raised EUR 230, 838 in three days. The marathon will last till 22 December. NGO Ziedot.lv, which is a partner of the marathon requested Latvians to contribute to the charity. 

On 19 December, the UK’s Defence Ministry’s intelligence report stated that the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, has been leading a group of poorly trained convicts in the Donetsk region. They are monitored via satellites and UAVs. The experienced Wagner uses the convicts as fodder in the war and sees them as expandable assets. The Wagner group also gives the Russian army in Donetsk additional firepower.

On 19 December, EURACTIV reported that President Putin had ordered Russia’s Federal Security Services (FSB) to increase its surveillance on Russian society for the safety of the citizens from foreign attacks and traitors. Putin also ordered FSB to increase security at the border to prevent the entry of foreign special services and also to flush out traitors and spies. He said to FSB: “...significantly improve your work in key areas, and use your operational, technical and personnel potential to the fullest.” Putin assured the safety of the occupied regions from Ukraine by supplying experienced soldier units with modern weapons and equipment.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 19 December, Syria received 500,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat shipment from Russia in 2022. The wheat export is sent to Syria from Sevastopol port in Crimea via the Black Sea. A report on the shipments was released by the Ukrainian Embassy in Beirut. The Embassy tracked the shipments from January to November 2022. The report stated that Russia and Syria had used their ships to transport grain to Syria, including the three US-sanctioned Syrian ships, the Laodicea, the Finikia and the Souria. According to the report, Ukraine accused Russia of stealing its agricultural supply to export to Syria.
 
On 19 December, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani refuted the US CIA’s Director William Burn’s claim that military cooperation between Iran and Russia is the cause of damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructures. Kanani said that Iran does not intend its relations with Russia to cause any harm to other countries. He also said: “...acts independently in regulating its foreign relations and does not seek permission from anyone,” about Iran’s foreign policy and its relations with Russia. Iran also accused the US of creating a propaganda war against it with baseless political claims and false allegations concerning its relations with Russia.

On 19 December, TRT world reported that Russia and China will conduct naval drills from 21 to 27 December amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The naval exercise aims to strengthen the relations between China and Russia. It will involve military and artillery firing in the East China Sea. The Russian Defence Ministry said: “The main purpose of the exercises is to strengthen naval cooperation between Russia and China, and maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”

References
Oleksandr Danyluk, “According to the information available in Ukrainian intelligence, the intelligence services of the Russian Federation are planning provocations to undermine international military-technical assistance to Ukraine.,” Facebook, 19 December 2022
Ukrainian artists raising money for Armed Forces,” Ukrinform, 19 December 2022
Russian drone strikes damage critical infrastructure in Kyiv,” Ukrinform, 19 December 2022
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, “Tallinn transfers 20 buses to Zhytomyr,” Facebook, 19 December 2022
Air defense forces shoot down ten kamikaze drones in southern Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 19 December 2022
Energoatom, “Tonight, December 19 at 00:46, the Shahid kamikaze drone was recorded flying over the site of the Southern Ukrainian NPP near the nuclear installation.,” Telegram, 19 December 2022
NPC Ukrenergo, “New equipment worth more than $100K from our American partners USAID is already being prepared for installation at one of Russian shelling-damaged substations.,” Facebook, 19 December 2022
Talks between Putin and Lukashenko kick off in Minsk,” TASS, 19 December 2022
Press review: Putin to meet Lukashenko in Belarus and EU beats Asia in Russian LNG imports,” TASS, 19 December 2022
Russian, Belarusian top diplomats discuss situation around Ukraine, Western sanctions,” TASS, 19 December 2022
US-made missiles destroyed over western Russia – Moscow,” RT, 19 December 2022
PM to meet leaders on Europe’s northern frontier to strengthen efforts to counter Russian aggression,” gov.uk, 19 December 2022
The third day of the charity marathon Dod pieci! – collected 230 838 euros,” rus.lsm.lv, 19 December 2022
UK PM to announce major new artillery package for Ukraine,” morningstar.co.uk, 19 December 2022
Andrius Sytas, “Ukraine's Zelenskiy asks European leaders for air defence, tanks, weapons,” Reuters, 19 December 2022
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 December 2022,” Twitter, 19 December 2022
Council agrees on temporary mechanism to limit excessive gas prices,” European Council, 19 December 2022
EU agrees to gas price cap,” Duetsche Welle, 19 December 2022
Putin orders FSB to step up surveillance of Russians and borders,” EURACTIV, 20 December 2022
Jonathan Saul, Maha El Dahan and Maya Gebeily, “Exclusive: Crimea showers Syria with wheat, Ukraine cries foul,” Reuters, 19 December 2022
Iran accuses US of ‘propaganda war’,” RT, 19 December 2022
Russia, China to conduct joint naval drills under Ukraine shadow,” TRT world, 19 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Allen Joe Mathew

SPAIN
Highest rate recorded in youth employment
On 20 December, EURACTIV reported on revised rate of Spain’s labour rules.  It reported an increase of 142 per cent in youth workers. Europe has faced the highest rate of youth underemployment and unemployment since the global financial crisis. The improvement has been observed due to the labour reform introduced by the Socialist-led government. The youth unemployment rate of Spain improved after the economic recovery in 2021 and fell by 13 per cent after the introduction of labour regulations. After the negotiation with the labour union and employers, temporary jobs and contracts were removed to the max to reduce the job instability and unemployment rate. This has now led to a beneficial increase in the youth employment in Spain. (“Youth in Spain see jobs gain after years of instability,” EURACTIV, 20 December 2022)

SWITZERLAND
Switzerland withdraws temporarily from the UN resettlement refugee programme
On 19 December, the Switzerland announced the temporary suspension of its participation in the UN resettlement programme for refugees. The decision came as it reported on the challenge of incapacity to house the fleeing Ukrainian refugees. According to the Swiss State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) spokesperson Lukas Rieder: “The resettlement programme will not be called into question, only admissions will be temporarily suspended.” In 2022, UNHCR stated that of 1.5 million  refugees, only a fraction have been allotted settlement, where Switzerland had committed for supporting 1,820 “vulnerable refugees” during 2022 and 2023 and have now withdrawn. (“Switzerland suspends admission of refugees under UN programme,” TRT World, 19 December 2022)

REGIONAL
Stricter rules to be adopted for human trafficking
On 19 December, the European Commission proposed tougher rules to tackle human trafficking. In a statement, it reported that close to 7000 people were victims in the EU, costing EUR 2.7 billion, with the highest per cent shared amongst women and girls in workplace. The new set of rules focus at forced marriage, trafficking through internet and social media, a referral mechanism at the EU level to identify the victims early, and a data collection initiative to record the trafficking. The next step will now be the review of the European Parliament and the Council and adopt for the member states to implement the laws. (“Trafficking in human beings: Commission proposes stronger rules to fight the evolving crime,” ec.europa.eu, 19 December 2022)

Sweden denies the extradition of Turkish Journalist
On 19 December, the Swedish Supreme Court blocked the extradition of the Turkish Journalist Bulent Kenes to Turkey. It has citied that there are several obstacles to the extradition as it deems it as risk of persecution, and the “political nature.” Kenes who was previously working in the Zaman daily was accused by the Turkey for supporting Fethullah Gulen and being involved in the coup attempt of 2016. Sweden’s stand on the extradition may complicate the accession process, as Turkey’s one of the key conditions were to extradite Kenes to agree membership of Sweden and Finland into NATO. The Swedish Supreme court remains to be staunch as it does not deem some of the accusations as crimes. (“Swedish court stops extradition of Turkish journalist,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2022)

Meta accused of breaking EU’s antitrust rules
On 19 December, the EU alleged Meta, for indulging in unfair practices. Meta owned Facebook has its marketplace linked to the main social media platform. This leads to market distortion as users are provided with automatic access to Meta’s online classified ads service. The commission’s report also revealed that Meta used data from other advertisers on Instagram and Facebook for its own benefit. Meta’s Head of competition for Europe, the Middle East and Asia, Tim Lamb denied stating that the allegations posed against the company were without any foundation. (EU accuses Facebook parent Meta of distorting ads marketDeutsche Welle, 19 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Three agreements signed in Kunming-Montreal deal for on biodiversity protection
On 19 December, the COP15 ended in Canada with 200 states agreeing to global protection and restoration of 30 per cent of “terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine areas.” According to Finland’s Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Maria Ohisalo the agreement is seen as a “turning point” to bring down the biodiversity loss in countering the climate change. Of the many decisions taken, one was the removal of subsidies that affect the environment up to USD 500 billion per year and a global commitment of USD 200 billion per year was agreed to be given till 2030. Two, biodiversity has been in the central focus, including “agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture,” which are considered most vulnerable and need to be used sustainably by local communities. Three, another agreement was signed for reducing the pollutants and hazardous chemicals by 2030 to lessen the damage to biodiversity and ecosystem. The leaders agreed on setting a quantitative target to assess the risk of “nutrient emissions,” and use of pesticides. (“UN Biodiversity Conference reached agreement on halting biodiversity loss by 2030 – 30 per cent protection and restoration goal for world’s nations,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 19 December 2022)

UK High court rules in favor for refugee deportation plan
On 19 December, the London High Court ruled in favor of UK’s plan of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda, but pointed out that the government did not take into account the individual circumstances of the asylum seekers. Till date, no person has been deported but the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke of commencing the program as soon as possible. The legal challenge is ongoing in the courts with staunch opposition to the plan from other political parties and from the UN. The plan comes at a time where the UK has received 40,000 migrants seeking asylum. UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman stated that it is meant for discouraging illegal immigration into the country, and the business of people-smuggling. (UK court rules Rwanda deportation plan lawfuldw.com, 19 December 2022)

 


16 December 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #385

War in Ukraine: Day 295

Slovakian government fails no confidence motion; The EU gives Bosnia a candidate status; EU-ASEAN summit ends with major agreements

Photo : Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 295
By Madhura S Mahesh and Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 15 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Russian Armed Forces had launched more than 16 attacks on Kherson. Ukraine’s President Office Deputy Head Kyrylo Tymoshenko said: "The enemy hit the centre of the city again, 100 metres from the Kherson Regional Military Administration which was attacked yesterday.” He added that two civilians were killed as a result of the attack. Zelenskyy later said that in a separate strike on Kherson, a Red Cross volunteer was killed when one of the “projectiles” hit the Red Cross aid station. 

On 15 December, the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council Chairman Mykola Lukashuk reported that Russian forces have shelled Chervonohryhorivka, Marhanets, and Nikopol districts killing one. Lukashuk added the Russian forces used Grad MLRS and heavy artillery shells to attack residential neighbourhoods in the three districts. The attack killed a 65-year-old man and left five others injured. He added that the attacks damaged power and gas lines, private houses, five-story apartment blocks, a school, a college, shops, a healthcare facility, a filling station and cars. 

On 15 December, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food released the data on Ukrainian agricultural exports as a part of the grain deal. The Ministry stated that as of 14 December, 554 vessels carrying around 13.9 million tons of agricultural products have left the ports of the Odesa Oblast. Of the 13.9 million tons of agricultural goods, four million tons of wheat and 5.9 million tons of corn were exported. It also said that in the past two weeks, agricultural exports have increased by 1.6 million tonnes out of which shipments of wheat and corn increased by 399 thousand tonnes and 911 thousand tonnes respectively. The Ministry added that in December 25.08 per cent of total shipments of wheat have been exported to Africa alone which amounts to over one million tonnes. It also added that on 14 December four ships left for Asia carrying over 69.5 thousand tonnes of agricultural 
products.  

On 14 December, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence announced that 65 people were returned to Ukraine as a part of the latest exchange of Prisoners of War (POW). According to the Ministry out of the 65 people released, 59 are Ukraine Armed Forces personnel, five are territorial defence fighters and a US citizen named Suedi Murekezi. Murekezi was arrested back in June in Kherson by the Russians for “participating in pro-Ukrainian rallies.” It also said that four bodies of military personnel were returned by Russia. Out of the 65 returned, 23 reportedly are injured with some in serious condition. The prisoners returned were mostly captured on the frontlines in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 December, DPR’s Acting Head Denis Pushilin said that Ukrainian Armed Forces had shelled Donetsk killing one. Calling it the first attack on Donetsk since 2014, Pushilin said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched 40 shells and hit residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. He added that the attacks resulted in one dead and 11 injured. Pushilin called these attacks “terror” against the civilians and added that it was being encouraged by the West through the continued supply of arms to Ukraine. 

On 15 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that in the past five months Russia has exported around 22 million metric tons of grain mostly to Asia and Africa. Speaking at the Strategic Development and National Projects Council meeting, Putin added that by the end of 2022 Russia can supply approximately an additional five million metric tons of grain to the global market. He said that Russia in the global market is one of the top suppliers of grain, fertilizers and vegetable oil. Putin added that by 30 June 2023 Russia would like to increase the total grain exports to 50 million metric tons. He emphasised that: “At the same time, satisfaction of domestic needs and faithful performance of obligations under foreign contracts is the unconditional priority for us."

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 December, Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson issued a statement revoking the temporary sanctions waiver on Russia. The waiver allowed the transportation and repair of the turbine in Montreal and the transit of the same to Germany. In a joint statement: “Putin has been forced to show that his intention was never to return Nord Stream 1 to full operation and that the pipeline itself has been rendered inoperable.” The decision comes after consultation with Germany and EU member states.
 
On 15 December, the Pentagon announced the expansion of the training efforts of the US for the Ukrainian military soldiers in Germany. Through this decision, 500 Ukrainians will be trained every month, reducing the requirement for US troops to be deployed in Europe. So far 3,100 Ukrainian troops have been trained by the US on how to handle “..howitzers, armoured vehicles and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System.”
 
On 15 December, Deutsche Welle reported on a refugee poll conducted by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. The poll was held amongst the 11,225 refugees in Germany, which revealed that close to 37 per cent of Ukrainians who took refuge in Germany due to the war have wished to settle permanently or to stay in Germany for longer years. Out of which 17 per cent belonging to working age, have been employed, two per cent plan to leave in a year’s time and 27 per cent remain undecided.
 
On 15 December, the UK Ministry of Defence in its latest intelligence update quoted a low possibility for a Russia, Belarus joint military exercise and a combined attack in northern Ukraine. The earlier deployment of Russian troops in Belarus had created fear amongst the Ukrainians for a possible strike.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 15 December, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk warned about the worsening stake of civilians due to the targeted attacks of Russians. He said: “Additional strikes could lead to a further serious deterioration in the humanitarian situation and spark more displacement.” He reported that close to 10 million families face a shortage in electricity, water and heat and close to 1.5 million children are vulnerable to depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder.
 
On 15 December, the UN reported that more than 14 million metric tonnes of grain so far have been exported out due to the Black Sea deal. This has resulted in reducing global food prices for the last seven months.

References
The invaders cannot defeat our army, so they destroy every city and village; the only way to stop it is to push them out of our land - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 15 December 2022
Enemy again hits Kherson city center, killing two civilians,” Ukrinform, 15 December 2022
Number of casualties in Russian strike on Nikopol district rises,” Ukrinform, 15 December 2022
Ukraine exported over 1M tonnes of wheat to Africa in Dec 2022,” Ukrinform, 15 December 2022
65 more people were rescued from Russian captivity,” Telegram, 14 December 2022 
One killed, 11 injured after fierce bombardment of Donetsk on Thursday — DPR leader,” Tass, 15 December 2022
Russia exported about 22 mln metric tons of grain over last five months — Putin,” Tass, 15 December 2022
"Meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects," Kremlin.ru, 15 December 2022
Caitlin McFall, “Canada revokes Nord Stream sanction waiver despite European energy woesv,” Foxbusiness, 15 December 2022
Ukraine updates: Canada revokes Nord Stream sanctions waiver,” Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2022
Ukrainian refugees feel welcome in Germany, 37% keen to stay permanently: survey,” Reuters, 15 December 2022
Lolita C. Baldor and Tara Copp, “US to expand combat training for Ukrainian troops,” abcnews.go.com, 15 December 2022
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 December 2022,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 15 December 2022
UN emergency relief chief ends Ukraine visit, pledging solidarity,” un.org,15 December 2022
Agnès Pedrero, “14 Mn Tonnes Of Grain Exported From Ukraine: UN,” Barrons,15 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Padmashree Anandhan

NORWAY
Government reduces fossil fuel tax to combat rising energy prices
On 15 December, Norway’s government announced removal of fuel tax from 2023 to control the energy prices. NOK 2.2 billion will be reduced through removing the fuel tax. The mineral oil tax reduction will also take place from 01 January 2023. The net reduction of fuel tax will be more than NOK 600 million and the trial amount road tax on fuel will be reduced by NOK 1.88 billion. The government also plans to increase CO2 tax which will se the growth in state revenue by NOK 1.26 billion. The removal of road and fuel taxes will help households and businesses cope with risisng fuel prices. (Robin-Ivan Capar, “Norway to remove fuel tax to reduce petrol and diesel prices,” the Local no, 15 December 2022)

SLOVAKIA
Slovakian government votes for no-confidence motion
On 15 December, in the Slovakian government, 78 of 150 MPs voted in favour of a no-confidence motion proposed by the opposition. The Prime Minister Eduard Heger’s coalition government which was formed with three parties, lost the majority when “Freedom and Solidarity Party” withdrew. As the coalition go into no-control zone, it also failed to get the 2023 budget passed. Upon the no-confidence motion, President Zuzana Caputova will now have to appoint new prime minister or suggest for new elections, which will require two-thirds of Parliament majority. The reason behind the withdrawal of Freedom and Solidarity party was due to dissatisfaction over “spending plans” of the Finance Minister and support from the opposition party. (“No confidence vote topples Slovakia coalition government,” Deutsche Welle,15 December 2022)

THE UK
Sunak announced three naval ship construction in Belfast
On 15 December, UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the Defence Ministry contracted building three naval vessels in Belfast for GBP 1.6 billion. The new shipbuilding contract will create job offers in Belfast. The move comes after Sunak’s first visit to Northern Ireland as Prime Minister. The deal looks to thaw the icy relation between Northern Ireland and the UK regarding the Good Friday agreement. Sunak stressed the Northern Irealnd’s parties to form a solution before the deadline for a new election comes up. (Lisa O’ Carroll, “MoD to revive Belfast shipbuilding with contract for three naval vessels,” the Guardian, 15 December 2022)

UK’s new REDAA aid programme to promote research and nature restoration
On 14 December, UK announced its new funding programme to preserve environment called as “Reversing Environmental Degradation in Africa and Asia (REDAA).” The funds will be directed to offer research grants and a nature facility to restore natural environments. This will be carried through “In-country research and people-driven action,” approach to strengthen the natural landscapes and bolster resilience amongst communities. The nature facility is to ensure UK’s aid towards the nature restoration is materialized. According to FCDO Minister for Climate and Environment, Lord Zac Goldsmith: “Through REDAA and the Nature Facility, we are using our ODA as a catalyst to unlock more public and private finance for nature.” (“UK launches programmes for ecosystem restoration in Africa and Asia,” Gov.uk, 14 December 2022)

REGIONAL
Çavuşoğlu denies allegation on targeting civilians in Syria
On 15 December, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu criticised Belgium for its comments on Turkey’s counterterrorism efforts in Syria. He denied the accusation saying the civilians or the civilian infrastructure was never targeted and asked Belgium to take measures to address the terrorist activities of the PKK organizations in Europe. The exchange of remarks comes after Turkey’s air operation upon a terrorist attack on 13 November by the PKK group that killed six and injured 81. Although Turkey says it carried out the operation in line with UN charter Article 51, the EU member states and the international have accused Turkey of causing violence in Syria. Along with Belgium, Swedish Foreign Minister, Tobias Billstrom has also criticised Turkey for its “Operation Claw-Sword,” in northern Iraq and northern Syria. He said: “Every country has the right to defend itself against terrorism, and this right includes Türkiye.” (“Türkiye urges Belgium to take action against PKK terrorist group,” Daily Sabah; 15 December 2022; “Türkiye has right to self-defense against terrorism: Sweden,” Daily Sabah, 15 December 2022)

Joint task force to combat unlawful migration to be formed by Albania and the UK
On 15 December, Albania and the UK announced in a joint statement that the two will be launching a Joint Task Force to combat illegal migration and infiltrate criminal networks. This comes after Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak discussed the issue of  illegal migration in a telephone call. The joint statement reads: “We are committed to strengthening further the implementation of our shared international commitments especially in the areas of border control, the fight against organised crime, including human trafficking and exploitation in all its forms, and illegal migration.” The joint task force will be set up under the Ministry of Interior/Home Office of Albania and the UK respectively. (Gjergj Erebara, “Albania and UK Announce Joint Task Force Against Crime and Illegal Migration,” Balkan Insight, 15 December 2022)

The EU accepts Bosnia’s candidacy
On 15 December, the EU leaders granted Bosnia and Herzegovina formal candidacy to join the bloc. Bosnia and Herzegovina will join other EU candidates from the Eastern European region. Kosovo also submitted its formal application to join the EU on the same day. Kosovo will have to resolve its issues with Serbia to go further with its application to become an EU candidate. The decision to grant the candidacy status to Bosnia was due to the fear of instability in the delicate Western Balkan region from the Ukraine war. (“Kosovo formally applies for EU membership,” Deutsche Welle; 15 December 2022; “EU leaders grant Bosnia EU candidate status,” Reuters, 16 December 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
EU-ASEAN summit concludes with key agreements
On 15 December, the European Commission released the President Ursula von der Leyen statement on the conclusion of EU-ASEAN Summit. The summit was held to celebrate 45 years of diplomacy and many deals were agreed between both blocs. One, President Ursula declared a EUR 10 billion investment under EU’s “Global Gateway Strategy” to speed up the investments towards infrastructure, green transition, sustainable connectivity in the ASEAN. Two, the EU along with Vietnam, the UK and countries part of the International Partners Group agreed on “Just Energy Transition Partnership with Vietnam.” The partnership is aimed to help it achieve Net Zero goal by 2050 and mobilise USD 15.5 billion from the private and public finance to help with Vietnam’s green transition. Three, President von der Leyen and the Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong agreed on digital partnership for 2023, to facilitate “data flows and data innovation, digital trust, standards, digital skills for workers, and the digital transformation of businesses.” Lastly, two bilateral agreements were signed by the EU with Malaysia and Thailand. In a joint statement: “We commit to develop the EU-ASEAN Strategic Partnership that is based on international law, mutual interest and mutually beneficial cooperation on issues of common concern and the principle of equality.” (“Indo-Pacific: EU-ASEAN Summit brings the two regions closer,” ec.europa.eu, 15 December 2022; “EU-ASEAN Commemorative Summit 2022: Joint Leaders' Statement,” consilium.europa.eu, 14 December 2022”)


15 December 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #384

War in Ukraine: Day 294 | French companies on front in reconstruction of Ukraine

Denmark introduces reforms to tackle inflation; New coalition government to be formed in Latvia; Hungary and China discuss strengthening bilateral relations

Photo : Lisa Louis/DW


War in Ukraine: Day 294
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 14 December, the Ukraine Military reported on taking down of 13 Iran made Shahed drones in Kyiv. The attack is seen as first major in the week after drones attacks inside Russia. Although no casualties were recorded, the five buildings were damaged.

On 14 December, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine issued a statement on Germany’s aid to support Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In a statement, EUR 30 million was announced by the Federal Government of Germany to help Ukraine purchase equipment’s to restore the damaged energy infrastructure. Germany will join the list along with Denmark, the UK, and the Association of European Energy Regulators (ERRA) to provide funds for energy support. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 December, RT reported on the involvement of UK jurists in training 90 Ukrainian judges on conducting trails against Russia for accused war crimes. Attorney General Victoria Prentis said: “A horrifying catalogue of war crimes, with more than 43,000 cases recorded.” She assured to help the Ukrainian judges to “navigate” through them. She also added: “These 90 judges will go back after some really intensive training, able better to run those courts.”

On 14 December, RT responded to the NATO new budget for 2023. The civil budget which contains EUR 370.8 million, and the military budget containing EUR 1.96 billion indicates an increase by 27.8 and 25.8 per cent. It stated that the reason behind the increase in rate was due to many members stepping forward to increase their defence spending. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 December, the UK Armed Forces Chief Adm Sir Tony Radakin stated that there was a “critical shortage” faced by Russia in conducting its ground operations. He added: “This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.”

On 14 December, Bulgaria reached its full operational capacity under NATO’s support. NATO reported on the battlegroup which was established on 01 March after the Ukraine war began was able to install full capacity in Bulgaria’s battle group. This was possible with help from Albania, Greece, Italy, the Republic of North Macedonia, and the United States, who helped in deploying military personal which totalled the troops to 1000. According to NATO, this indicates a “transatlantic bond” and a model for “largest reinforcement” of collective defence.

On 13 December, the European Commission decision to impose a energy price cap on Russian crude oil has been delayed. During the meeting the EU ministers have approved two measures. These will help in protecting the EU from the gas shortage through “joint gas purchases,” and speed the process for renewable energy “installations,” which will be put into practise after the price cap is set. The suggested price limit was EUR 275 per megawatt hour if the price of gas remained at same level for two continuous weeks.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 13 December, a conference was held in Paris involving 700 French companies to discuss on their role in the reconstruction process of Ukraine. It was attended by 46 delegations from countries across and many international organisation met to pledge EUR one billion in form of subsidies, materials to help Ukraine in winter. According to French President Emmanuel Macron: “Whenever a territory is reconquered, reconstruction needs to start immediately.. Ukraine's economy must stay solid, as it will be the backbone of the rebuilding process.” During the conference the French firms and Ukraine signed a deal worth EUR 100 million for “supply of rails, mobile bridges and seeds.”

On 14 December, International Organization for Migration (IOM) published a report on Ukrainians willing to exit Ukraine in winter. It found that only seven per cent of them were in favour to move out despite power cuts, scarce resources, and low savings. According to the IOM Chief of Mission stated that more than five million people who were initially displaced has returned homes now and 40 per cent of the population is still in need of immediate aid.

References
30 million euros from Germany will be directed to the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine,” mev.gov.ua, 14 December 2022
Ukraine forces shoot down drones as Kyiv hit by explosions,” The Guardian, 14 December 2022
UK training Ukrainian judges for trials of Russians,” RT, 14 December 2022
NATO budget surges by over a quarter,” RT, 14 December 2022
NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Bulgaria reaches full capability,” nato.org 14 December 2022
EU energy ministers fail to reach decision on gas price cap,” Deutsche Welle, 14 December 2022
Lisa Louis, “French companies seek role in Ukraine's reconstruction,” Deutsche Welle, 14 December 2022
IOM Accelerates Winter Support in Ukraine as New Report Reveals Most People Plan to Stay,” ukraine.iom.int, 14 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

BULGARIA
Roumen Radev rejects new amendments to the Bulgarian Electoral Code
On 14 December, Bulgaria’s President Roumen Radev vetoed the new amendments to Bulgaria’s Electoral Code passed by the Parliament. Radev reportedly vetoed many provisions in the amended law and added that the law does not assure equal treatment of voters, the secrecy of the vote, and the efficient organisation of the electoral process outside Bulgaria. Radev particularly criticised the parliament’s decision to require voters to cast their votes through printouts from the voting machines. He said that this curbs the freedom of votes to choose how to cast their votes either through a paper ballot or a voting system. (“Bulgarian President Radev vetoes amendments to Electoral Code,” The Sofia Globe, 14 December 2022)


DENMARK
The new coalition agreement provides plans to address inflation
On 14 December, Denmark’s Acting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen presented the agreement of the centrist coalition government titled “Responsibility for Denmark.” The new agreement outlines the plans of the coalition for tackling inflation, lack of employees in hospitals and tax reforms. Some of the plans include the imposition of an extra five per cent in taxes for those who earn more than DKK 568,900 per year and the scrapping of a public holiday in 2024 which will help Denmark divert funds to increase Denmark’s military expenditure to meet NATO targets. The new centrist coalition of centre-left Social Democrats, the centre-right Liberal Party and the centrist Moderate party is the first such coalition since 1978. The new coalition also has the majority in the parliament with 89 of 179 seats in the parliament and enjoys the support of four seats from the semi-independent Danish territories in Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. (Jan M. Olsen “Danish PM says centrist coalition needed at time of crisis,” AP News, 14 December 2022)

LATVIA
Coalition parties to form the new government 
On 14 December, New Unity, United List and National Alliance signed an agreement to enter into a coalition and form the new government of Latvia. The government is led by Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš who is from the New Unity party with his 14 cabinet ministers. Out of the 14 cabinet ministers, four belong to National Alliance, four belong to National Alliance and six belong to New Unity. The coalition will now face a confidence vote in the Saeima. The Latvian elections were held on 01 October and the three parties decided to enter a coalition after the results were announced which was followed by two and a half months of negotiations between the parties. (“Latvia's coalition parties sign next government agreement,” ENG.LSM.lv, 14 December 2022)

POLAND
Morawiecki urge to fast-track the judicial reforms
On 14 December, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki urged lawmakers from all political parties to fast-track the approval process of proposed judicial reforms. These new judicial reforms were introduced to solve the ongoing dispute between the EU and Poland and unblock important EU funds. The latest dispute was the introduction of a disciplinary chamber for judges by Poland. This was condemned by EU courts which demanded its dissolvent and subsequently levied EUR one million fines per day on Poland for failing to do so. Opposition parties have said that they will come to a decision after reading the reforms thoroughly and making their decision based on the final draft. They also said that the process for adopting the reforms should not be rushed. As per the reforms: “Eliminate potential doubts related to the implementation by the Republic of Poland of its obligations,” and boost the judiciary’s impartiality and independence. If the reforms are passed then the flow of unblocked funds will alleviate the strain on Poland’s public finances thereby reducing inflation. (Pawel Florkiewicz and Anna Wlodarczak-semczuk “Polish PM urges lawmakers to pass new judicial reforms to unlock EU funds,” Reuters, 15 December 2022)
 
THE NETHERLANDS 
Hague court upholds ban on assisted suicide
On 14 December, the Hague District Court ruled in favour of upholding the ban on assisted suicide. The case was filed by activists led by the Cooperative Last Will group challenged the Netherlands’ ban on assisted suicide claiming that it violates the ECHR. In the Netherlands, the practice of euthanasia is legal where physicians are allowed to end the lives of patients by administering lethal doses of drugs under strict conditions. The practice of assisted suicide where a person who is not a physician supplies an individual with fatal substances to self-administer is banned in the Netherlands. The Court in its ruling said that while the ECHR protects an individual’s right to decide when to end their life it “….does not go so far that there is also a right to obtain assisted suicide.”   Cooperative Last Will’s Chairperson Frits Spangenberg expressed his disappointment with the court’s judgement and added that they will continue this fight. The Dutch Association for a Voluntary End of Life criticised the ruling and said that the court supports a “…situation in which the government deprives its citizens of the right to die with dignity at their own discretion.” (Mike Corder “Dutch court rejects challenge to assisted suicide ban,” AP News, 14 December 2022)
 
CLIMATE & ENERGY
Finland to transfer surplus renewable energy to the Brussels
On 14 December, Finnish Minister of Economic Affairs Mika Lintilä and Brussels-Capital Region’s Minister of Energy and Climate Alain Maron signed an agreement under the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) for the statistical transfers. Lintilä said “Finland’s long-term investments into increasing the share of renewable energy have been successful, and we have exceeded our target,” and the surplus of the energy target will be transferred to Belgium. The transfer of 132-gigawatt hours of energy will be dated for the year 2021. The total transfer will be worth EUR 1.65 million which will be purchased and paid in a single instalment by 31 December 2022. The transfers of surplus renewable energy to EU nations is to help them fulfil EU energy goals. (“Finland and the Brussels region agree on statistical transfers of renewable energy – Finland sells surplus for EUR 1.65 million,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 14 December 2022)
 
Belgium to get fund from the EU Cohesion Policy for economic and green transition
On 14 December, the European Commission reported that Belgium will receive approximately EUR three billion from the EU Cohesion Policy funding in 2021-2027. This funding will be used by Belgium to help in the development of an innovative, inclusive and inclusive economy and will also help boost its green and digital transition. The Partnership Agreement between the Commission and Belgium outlines how the funding will be used. Around EUR 1.83 billion in funds from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Just Transition Fund will be used for increasing economic competitiveness, green investments and digitalisation. The European Social Fund Plus (ESF+) will be providing funds worth approximately EUR 1.3 billion to invest in employment, skills and social inclusion. Lastly around EUR 40.3 million from the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund (EMFAF) will be used to boost sustainable fisheries, aquaculture and processing sector. (“EU Cohesion Policy: almost €3 billion for Belgium's green and digital transition and economic development in 2021-2027,” ec.europa.eu, 14 December 2022)
 
DW opinion's five takeaways on EU CBAM proposal
On 14 December, an opinion in Deutsche Welle on the new EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) talks about how this new proposal will help the EU achieve its climate goals and prevent carbon leakages, and how the impact of the proposal on the Global South and international trade is shrouded. The new EU policy looks to prevent carbon leakages by asking countries producing high-emission goods synch as steel, metal, and oil refineries to purchase a CBAM certificate before exporting goods to the EU. The piece makes five arguments to understand how these policies will affect European and international industrial companies and producer states. First, the new policy will ensure the development of sustainable production and discourage shifting of production to countries with lax carbon emission laws to avoid paying EU carbon prices. This will reduce the risk of carbon leakage in the EU. Second, this new policy can either start a trade war or lead to cooperation between countries to promote sustainable production. Countries like India, China, South Korea, Russia, and Ukraine may see these policies as protectionist and install countermeasures which could start a trade war. In the case of countries coming together. Third, it will increase the pressure on countries to adopt climate-friendly policies and sustainable production. Fourth, the new environmental standards can negatively affect economically poor countries. According to Oxfam, goods produced in economically poor countries that depend on trade with the EU will see a decrease in the level of competitiveness in the EU market. This will lead to a loss of jobs due to a potential reduction in exports. Fifth, uncertainties are present in measuring the level of carbon footprint across the world and how the collected carbon tax will be invested. (Tim Schauenberg “CO2 tax at Europe's border: A revolution for the climate?,” Deutsche Welle, 14 December 2022)


SPORTS
France beat Morocco to advance into the 2022 FIFA World Cup finals
On 14 December, the French football team beat Morocco in the semi-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup to advance into the finals. With a score of 2-0, France advanced into the finals where they will take on Argentina on 18 December. The two goals were scored by Theo Hernandez and Randal Kolo Muani. France is the defending champion in 2022 and if they bear Argentina in the finals they will become the first to consecutively win the World Cup in the last 50 years. (Matt Pearson “World Cup: France down Morocco to keep title defense alive,” Deutsche Welle, 14 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Hungary and China discuss bilateral cooperation and the future of EU-China relations
On 13 December, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held video talks where the two discussed future bilateral cooperation and the future of EU-China relations. The two foreign ministers discussed the bilateral cooperation of Hungary and China under China’s Belt and Road initiative. Szijjártó and Wang signed an agreement for setting up an intergovernmental cooperation committee. Szijjártó said that the EU is looking to “..put the relationship back on the path of partnership instead of failed sanctions.” Wang said that China can maintain friendly relations with the EU similar to that with Hungary. He added that “we believe that Hungary will continue to play a constructive role in promoting China-EU relations.” (Barbara Bene “Hungarian-Chinese Cooperation a Success Story, Says Foreign Minister,” Hungary Today, 14 December 2022 and Cyril Ip “With one eye on the EU, China’s foreign minister highlights Hungary ties,” South China Morning Post, 14 December 2022)
 
US Envoy stresses the importance of the Association of Serbian Municipalities
On 13 December, US Special Envoy for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar in an interview with RFE/RL’s Balkan Service stressed the importance of establishing the Association of Serbian Municipalities. According to Escobar, this will be a key step to achieving peace in the region. He said: “It is an obligation for Serbia, it is an obligation for Kosovo, it is an obligation for the EU, which helped in its negotiation,”  and that the US will assist Kosovo in establishing it as is their “commitment” to do so. The Association of Serbian Municipalities is an initiative agreed upon by Serbia and Kosovo in the 2013 Brussels Agreement but was never fully implemented. Escobar also stressed that the US does not support the deployment of Serbian forces in Kosovo and urged the Kosovan government to see to the grievances of the Kosovo Serbs. (Amra Zejneli “U.S. Envoy In Pristina Urges Establishment Of Association Of Serbian Municipalities,” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 13 December 2022)

 


14 December 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #383

War in Ukraine: Day 293 | UK imposes new sanctions on Russian Senior Commanders

The UK rail workers strike again for better wage; Greek MEP removed for bribery charges; First-ever-in-person EU-ASEAN summit in Brussels held

Photo : Gov.UK


War in Ukraine: Day 293
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 13 December, Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko disclosed the reconnection of the ninth 1,000-megawatt power unit of Energoatom’s nuclear power plants to the Ukrainian power grid. The restored power units in Ukraine-controlled regions provide electricity to its people and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The ZNPP consumes at least 100 megawatts of electricity from Ukraine’s power grid.

On 13 December, Ukraine received a EUR one billion loan from France’s Development Agency on subsidized conditions. One, the loan's interest rate will be 1.04 per cent per annum for 15 years from the date of the loan’s agreement. Two, the grace period for deferring loan repayment will be more than five years from the loan’s issuance. The loan will be directed to the state budget to finance immediate needs such as social and humanitarian expenditures. 

On 13 December, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met IAEA’s Director General Rafael Grossi to discuss ZNPP’s demilitarization in Paris. Grossi promised that IAEA will send permanent technical missions to Ukraine to foresee all nuclear plants from Zaporizhzhia to Chornobyl. Shmyhal and Grossi expressed the importance of ZNPP’s safety and security from Russian attacks and discussed necessary steps for demilitarization.  

On 13 December, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) arrested a Russian agent who had links with the Russian mercenary group, Wagner PMC (a private military company). The Russian agent who was a local resident of Odesa, was investigated thoroughly by the SBU for information leaks. Following the investigation of his phone, they found that the Russian agent had been sharing classified information, pictures and digital maps with Russia. The SBU detained him before he revealed information on Ukraine’s coastal defence units, estimated soldiers, weapons and military equipment used for the protection of Odesa’s coast.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 December, Lenta.ru reported that Russia’s Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov comments on Ukraine’s new realities for achieving peace. Peskov said that Ukraine should accept the reality of the four regions- Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia being a part of Russia, following the results of the referendum. He said: “Without taking these new realities into account, any progress is impossible.” Peskov also mentioned that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s three steps that he announced to the G7 leader will escalate the war rather than bring peace. The three steps were, one, providing military aid to Ukraine. Two, providing financial, energy and social stability assistance to Ukraine in 2023 and three, implementation of the 10-step peace formula that was proposed by Zelenskyy. Peskov said that these steps were aimed to continue the war and not stopping them.

On 13 December, Russia’s Defence Ministry spokesperson Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov announced that Russia would continue its offensive operations in the Donetsk region He said that Russian forces were able to intercept Ukraine‘s counterattack three times. Konashenkov reported: “As a result of fire damage, more than 30 Ukrainian servicemen, four armoured combat vehicles and three pickup trucks were destroyed.” 

On 13 December, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the Council of Europe had taken a megaphone diplomacy strategy for its communication. She added that the letter written to Russia was a show of Europe’s propaganda campaign rather than displaying its interest in having a meaningful talk with Russia. The contents of the letters were publicized. The letter portrayed Russia escaping international obligations and Europe caring about human rights in Russia. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 13 December, the US sent the first part of its power equipment shipment to Ukraine to restore its energy infrastructure. The energy equipment was worth USD 13 million. Two more humanitarian assistance continuing power equipment would be shipped before 18 December. The aid is to help Ukrainians cope with the cold winters and protect their energy infrastructures. Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland also announced humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Canada pledged to provide USD 115 million to repair Ukraine’s power grids following the damages caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructures. The fund will be provided from the tariff revenues collected from Russian and Belarusian imports. Canada and the US aim to secure Ukraine’s energy infrastructure so that its people can survive through the winter.

On 13 December, the UK government announced a new package of sanctions which includes 16 individuals targeting 12 senior Russian commanders and four Iranian businessmen. The senior commanders were sanctioned for human rights violations and their direct involvement in war. The four Iranian businessmen were sanctioned due to their involvement in supplying the Iranian-made Shahed drones which destroyed civilian infrastructures and the killing of civilians.

On 13 December, the UK’s Lieutenant General Robert Magowan confirmed the involvement of the Royal Marines in covert operations in Ukraine. He said that the commandos supported classified operations in Ukraine and the mission posed high levels of political and military risks. The UK government had previously acknowledged the presence of 45 commandos in Kyiv to evacuate its embassy safely in April.

On 13 December, the UK’s Defence Ministry intelligence reported on the cancelled end-of-year press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The UK Defence Ministry predicted that the reason behind the cancellation was due to the growing anti-war sentiments among Russians and possible unwanted discussion on the special military operation. This is the first time in ten years that Putin has cancelled the annual event.

On 13 December, Reuters reported that Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto had announced Italy’s halting of weapons supply as soon as the peace talks on ending the ongoing war begins. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni promised to extend arms supply to Ukraine till 2023. However, due to friction within her right-wing coalition, Meloni along with Crosetto stated that the military assistance to Ukraine will end as soon as diplomatic talks begin between Ukraine and Russia.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 December, the White House released the official statements at the G7 leaders' meeting. The main focus being the Ukraine war, the G7 leaders warned that any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be dealt with serious consequences. The need for financial assistance for Ukraine and to meet its urgent air defence system was also discussed. The G7 member states support IAEA’s effort to create a Safety and Security Zone around the ZNPP. The G7 leaders also discussed maintaining energy and food security in Ukraine.

On 13 December, Iran’s Defence Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani said that Ukraine has failed to produce conclusive proof of Russia deploying Iranian drones in the ongoing war. The Iranian Minister said that Ukraine was falsely accusing Iran and was spreading rumours based on unproven claims. He reiterated that Iran and Russia did not develop military cooperation for the Iranian drone trade rather they had a history of interactions since long ago.
 
On 13 December, Israel’s four senior officials from intelligence reports said that Iran wanted to limit its missile supply to Russia fearing the UN and the US sanctions and international backlash. However, they said that Iran has not completely deterred its missile trade with Russia. It has shortened the missile ranges to less than 300 kilometres with the immediate missile supply. The missile trade will include a Fateh-110 missile system which would be modified to limit its range to less than 300 kilometres so that it does not breach the UN resolutions placed on Iran.

References
The power unit of the nuclear power plant, which was taken out of operation after the missile attack, has been connected to the country's power system - Herman Galushchenko,” mev.gov.ua, 13 December 2022
Ukraine receives EUR 100 million loan from France,” kmu.gov.ua, 13 December 2022
Denys Shmyhal, “Demilitarization of the Zaporizhia NPP is point #1 of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's peace plan. This issue was discussed with the head of the IAEA during the meeting in Paris.,” Telegram, 13 December 2022
Security Service of Ukraine, “The SBU detained a Russian agent in Odesa who was "in touch" with the Wagner PMC headquarters.,” Telegram, 13 December 2022
The Kremlin spoke about the conditions for achieving peace in Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 13 December
The Kremlin appreciated Zelensky's three proposals for peace in Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 13 December
The Russian Defense Ministry spoke about the continuation of the offensive in the Donetsk direction,” Lenta.ru, 13 December
Council of Europe chooses ‘megaphone diplomacy’ to communicate with Russia — diplomat,” TASS, 13 December 2022
Humeyra Pamuk and Timothy Gardner, “U.S. sends first shipment of power gear to aid Ukraine,” Reuters, 13 December 2022
Canada to provide $115 mln to repair Kyiv's power grid,” Reuters, 13 December 2022
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 December 2022,” Twitter, 13 December 2022
New UK sanctions target senior Russian commanders following strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure,” gov.uk, 13 December 2022
Angelo Amante, “Italian arms supplies to Ukraine will stop with peace talks,” Reuters, 13 December 2022
George Grylls, “Royal Marines deployed on ‘high-risk covert operations’ in Ukraine,” The Times, 13 December 2022
G7 Leaders’ Statement,” whitehouse.gov, 12 December 2022
No Evidence from Ukraine for Claim That Russia Uses Iranian Drones: Defence Minister,” Tasnim News Agency, 13 December 2022
Barak Ravid, “Scoop: Iran plans to limit range of missiles sent to Russia, Israeli officials say,” Axios, 13 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

THE UK
Rishi Sunak introduces stricter measures to deal with illegal migration 
On 13 December, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak outlined five measures to combat illegal migration across the English Channel. These new measures include setting up a permanent Small Boats Operational Command, increasing raids on illegal working by law enforcement, ceasing housing asylum seekers in hotels and shifting them to alternate accommodations, increasing efficiency in processing asylum claims, and lastly stricter policies towards migrants arriving from Albania. Sunak said that the UK and the Albanian Government have entered into an agreement to decrease the number of illegal migrants coming to the UK. He has introduced a separate five-point plan under this agreement. The measures are, deploying Border Force officers in Tirana airport, declaring Albanian as a safe country, raising the threshold for one to be considered a modern slave, swift detainment and return of individuals along the ECAT, and setting up a new unit to process illegal Albanian migrants. Sunak added that under the agreement the Albanian government has agreed to protect actual victims and people at risk of re-trafficking.  Lastly, Sunak said that new legislation will be introduced to swiftly return illegal migrants to their home country or shift them to a safe country where their claims can be processed. He also added that the migrants “removed” from the UK will not be able to re-enter, settle or apply for UK citizenship. (“PM statement on illegal migration: 13 December 2022,” gov.uk, 13 December 2022)
 
UK rail workers begin walkout strike in demand for better pay
On 13 December, Rail workers across the UK started the two-day strike led by the RMT union demanding better pay with rising inflation. The workers staged a massive walkout which led to a decrease in the number of trains running throughout the day. This led to disruption in daily commutes as trains only ran from 0730 GMT to 1830 GMT. this comes after the RMT rejected the pay offer by Network Pay which outlined an increase in pay by five per cent for 2022 and four per cent from 2023. This strike is part of a series of protests which will be held by postal workers, bus drivers, highway workers, border force and airport baggage handlers who are all demanding for the next two weeks demanding for an increase in pay amid rising inflation. (“Thousands of UK’s rail workers strike over below-inflation pay,” Al Jazeera, 13 December 2022) 
 
TURKEY
Government introduces revised regulations after talks with the International Group of P&I Clubs
On 12 December, the Turkish Maritime Authority announced the revised insurance regulations for crude oil tankers passing through the Bosphorus strait. According to Reuters, the new regulations allows the insurance companies to not hold liability in “all circumstances.” Turkey on 01 December introduced new insurance regulations which mandated all crude oil tankers to present insurance proof when passing through the Bosphorus strait. The regulations were criticised by western insurance companies or the International Group of P&I Clubs who said that by doing so they would be in violation of sanctions imposed on countries such as Russia. This resulted in a standoff between the insurance companies that refused to comply and the Turkish government. (“Turkey reaches deal over new crude tanker insurance regulations,” Reuters, 13 December 2022) 
 
REGIONAL 
EU to set up new carbon price adjustment instrument to decrease carbon leakage 
On 13 December, the European parliament announced the set up of an EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which will adjust the carbon price paid for goods under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and for imported goods. The companies that import goods into the EU are now required to buy CBAM certificates to cover the “difference between the carbon price paid in the country of production and the price of carbon allowances in the EU ETS. The new law looks to ensure that EU efforts to combat climate change are not hampered by countries with “less ambitious policies” where EU goods are produced. The companies from countries that have the same climate “ambition” as the EU will not be required to purchase CBAM certificates to export goods. (“Deal reached on new carbon leakage instrument to raise global climate ambition,” europarl.europa.eu, 13 December 2022)
 
Eva Kaili removed; Socialist MEP’s under European Parliament investigation
On 13 December, European Members of Parliament (MEP) unanimously voted to remove Eva Kaili as Vice President of the European Parliament. The 625 MEPs in a plenary session voted for Kaili’s removal. Kaili’s lawyer Michalis Dimitrakopoulos said: “She has nothing to do with financing from Qatar, nothing – explicitly and unequivocally.” Eva Kaili was removed after she was arrested on the charged and arrested in an alleged corruption scandal linked with Qatar. He added that Kaili had not engaged in any “commercial activity” in her life. In the European Parliament, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group has asked the remaining MEP’s being investigated by the police or are indirectly involved to step down. S&D President Iratxe García Pérez said: "We have decided that the MEPs who are being investigated or those whose assistants are being investigated by law enforcement relinquish any position of responsibility that they exercise in the Parliament and in the S&D group as long proceedings are ongoing." Pérez added that the party will also be conducting a separate inquiry into these matters. (Eleonora Vasques “Kaili removed as EU Parliament VP following corruption scandal,” EURACTIV; 13 December 2022 and Emily Atkinson “Eva Kaili denies receiving cash from Qatar as EU corruption row grows,” Independent, 12 December 2022; Jorge Liboreiro “Socialist MEPs step down from key roles as European Parliament corruption scandal widens,” Euronews, 13 December 2022)
 
Slovakia signs arms deal with Sweden for 152 armoured combat vehicles
On 12 December, Slovakia signed a arms deal with the Swedish division of BAE Systems a British defence company to purchase 152 armoured combat vehicles. Slovakian Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said that he appreciates the “modernisation” of the country’s Armed Forces and that Slovakia’s progress toward the modernisation of the army has increased multifold.  The company said: “..has signed a USD 1.37 billion agreement for the delivery of 152 CV9035 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) from BAE Systems." Additionally, the company said that the vehicles would mainly be the “most” modern sub-systems and would include Israeli-produced Spike-LR anti-tank missiles as well. The deal would entail the Slovakian defence industry being involved in “significant” roles in the production and lifecycles of the IFVs. (Ahmet Gencturk “Slovakia signs deal to purchase 152 armored combat vehicles,” Anadolu Agency, 13 December 2022)

ENERGY
REPowerEU plan gets approval to reduce the usage of Russian fossil fuel
On 14 December, the European Council and the European Parliament agreed upon a REPowerEU plan which will help in diversifying the energy supply and increase the energy security of the EU. The REPowerEU proposal was introduced to help the EU reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels and help restructure the EU energy sector. The members will be adopting this proposal under the NextGenerationEU initiative which will help it finance important investments and reforms. The proposal looks to introduce new reforms and investments which will help in achieving the goals of REPowerEU such as decarbonising the EU energy industry, boosting the deployment of renewable energy, and addressing energy poverty. The proposal now has to be ratified by the European Council and the Parliament. (“EU recovery plan: Provisional agreement reached on REPowerEU,” consilium.europa.eu, 13 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
EU-ASEAN summit to promote trade ties amid global instabilities
On 13 December, the leaders of the EU and the ASEAN began their first-ever in-person summit in Brussels to celebrate 45 years of diplomatic relations. EU officials said that this summit presents itself as an “opportunity” for the EU and ASEAN to carry out their strategic partnership and “shared” commitments to resist geopolitical tensions. They said that the EU needs to turn its attention to the persistent security challenges in Myanmar, the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea and promoted the idea of building trade relations between ASEAN member states to ice out China as a dominant influence on the region. The Chairman of the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) Charles Santiago said that a free-trade agreement between the ASEAN and the EU is “not yet on the negotiating table” and that the trade relations between the two would entail consistent sourcing of raw materials and “containing” China’s and Russia’s overwhelming influence. Additionally, he said that human rights and democracy issues are “not a priority” as trade and economics are the focal points of the summit. (Priyanka Shankar “EU-ASEAN summit to build trade ties amid global tension,” Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2022)
 
Amnesty accuses Spain and Morocco for covering up the Melilla border incident 
On 13 December, Amnesty International released a report outlining the events of 24 June at the Melilla border between the Spanish enclave Melilla and Morocco. The report also looks into the response of Spanish and Moroccan authorities during the incident and the alleged “cover-up” by both countries with the lack of official response by both sides. The report goes on to highlight how both Spain and Morocco deny responsibility for the casualties that occurred at the Melilla border. Amnesty International’s Secretary General, Agnès Callamard said: “This smacks of a cover-up and racism, and rubs salt into already painful wounds,” and added that both governments should ensure justice is awarded to the victims and release the truth behind the incident. (“Morocco/Spain: Stalled and inadequate inquiries “smack of cover-up”, six months after 37 deaths at Melilla border,” Amnesty International, 13 December 2022)
 
Azerbaijani Gas is important for Serbia says Djedovic
On 13 December, Serbian Minister of Energy Dubravka Djedovic in an interview with Trend said that Azerbaijani gas supply will help Serbia in diversifying its energy supply and routes. Djedovic said that to ensure a smooth supply of gas from Azerbaijan Serbia along with Bulgaria has begun the construction of a gas interconnector which will be completed by 2023 end. This will help Serbia gain access to the Southern gas Corridor which includes the TAP gas pipeline and the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector and boost its energy security. (Laman Zeynalova “Access to Azerbaijani gas - priority for Serbia, says minister (Interview),” Trend, 13 December 2022) 

 


13 December 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #382

War in Ukraine: Day 292 | Natural gas shortage ahead for the EU warns IEA

The EU provides funds to help Turkey with border control; The UK's foreign policy addressed by James Cleverly; Michael Gove shares incorrect statistics on the UK's free trade deal

Photo : iea.org


War in Ukraine: Day 292
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 12 December, NEC Ukrenergo (Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator) reported on capacity deficit and hindrance in the full generation of thermal energy in Ukraine’s thermal power plants due to Russian attacks. It added: “Due to the complexity of the damage, the work takes longer than expected, also being complicated by poor weather conditions (wind gusts and wet snow).”
 
On 12 December, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) reported that two operational ports have resumed food exports from the Black Sea ports in Odesa Oblast. USPA Head Oleksiy Vostrikov said that due to the drone attacks on 10 December the port of Odesa is still non-operational but the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi have resumed operations. Vostrikov added that the ports are being powered with alternative energy sources.  
 
On 11 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US President Joe Biden. Zelenskyy and Macron discussed issues relating to energy, defence, diplomacy, and economy. In the call with Erdoğan, Zelenskyy discussed on the possible expansion of the Black Sea grain export corridor. Whereas with Biden, the focus was on the ground situation in Ukraine with a special focus on the energy infrastructure amid increased Russian missile attacks. Zelenskyy stressed the importance of air defence and requested Biden for US support in protections of civilians and infrastructure.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 December, Russia’s Museum of Air Defense Forces Director and Military Yuri Knutov shared his view on the Russian Armed Force’s future deployment to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. According to Knutov currently, Russian Forces are focusing on the battles in Artemovsk and Maryinka which are key defence areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He added that if Russian forces are able to take control of Artemovsk and Maryinka it will open the doors for the Russians to take over Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Knutov said: “Battles that are taking place now, although positional, are of strategic importance," for the Russian Armed Forces.

On 12 December, the LPR Human Rights Commissioner Viktoria Serdyukova reported that the LPR People’s Militia personnel were tortured in Ukrainian captivity. Serdyukova said that when the bodies of the personnel received from Ukraine through the exchange were examined, visible signs of torture were observed which was later confirmed by forensic analysis. She added how: “Forensic experts confirmed later that burns, fractures, gunshot wounds, and severed body parts.” Serdyukova also accused the international organisations of covering up “criminal actions of official Kiev” on prisoners who are subjected to physical abuse by Ukrainian forces. 

On 12 December, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin stressed on re-working the Black Sea Grain deal to maintain food security in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Vershinin pointed out the scarcity in supply of grains to these continents and are instead being delivered to “well-developed and well-off countries.” He added that the parallel agreement between Russia and the UN regarding the uninterrupted exports of fertilizers and agricultural products has not advanced nor achieved any concrete results. 

On the same day, Vershinin highlighted Russia's continued dialogue with IAEA to ensure protection of Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukraine attacks. Vershinin added on the discussion on ensuring “…peaceful nuclear facility won’t pose any threat to civilians both in the region and elsewhere.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 December, Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security released an analysis of online media coverage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Baltic States and how it is affected by Russian propaganda. The analysis was based on data collected by a Ukrainian startup LetsData and Detector Media NGO in September and October. The analysis found that Lithuanian media covered the conflict the most between the three countries and that Estonia covered it the least. It also found that the trend in Baltic online media reflected the trend followed by European media when it comes to topics covered in September and October. The analysis showed that Baltic media covers Russian propaganda by reproducing statements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other ministries and officials. It also saw that the Baltic media also cities Russian media like TASS, and RIA Novosti. 

On 12 December, Estonia’s e-Governance Academy (eGA) announced its new military cyber facility in Ukraine to help the Ukrainian military combat Russian cyber-attacks. The new facility was built with the help of the Ukrainian military and Estonia’s CybExer Technologies as a part of the EU’s support to Ukraine. According to eGA official Hannes Astok, the new facility will not only help in improving Ukranian military’s cybersecurity skills but also build the “cyber resilience of Ukraine.” CybExer official Aare Reintam added that this new facility will help equip the Ukrainian military “with the best cyber range.”

On 12 December, Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski objected on giving security guarantees to Russia. Jablonski said that Russia should not expect such guarantees and said that considering it is a “strategic mistake.” This comes amid the EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting and calls from the former and current heads of EU member nations such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. 

On 12 December, EU Foreign Council’s High Representative Josep Borrell said that the EU Foreign Ministers could not come to a consensus on the ninth package of sanctions against Russia. Borrell added that the package is expected to be finalised by 18 December. He mentioned the minister’s approval for two of the proposed sanctions in the new package. One, extending the list of sanctioned individuals to 200, including Russian politicians in the Duma, the Federation Council and the judiciary. Two, sanctioning the news outlets and organisations for information manipulation. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 December, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report on how the EU can avoid gas shortages. It stated that the EU will face a shortage of around 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2023 due to the reduced import of Russian natural gas. The report focuses on how the EU can avoid this shortage by adopting some practical actions. The IEA proposes that Europe can invest more to increase energy efficiency, renewables, installations of heat pumps, boost gas supplies and promote energy saving. The IEA acknowledges that the EU and its members have started and made “impressive progress” in 2022 on these recommendations. The IEA also recommends measures to further simplify the permit process for renewables, change tax laws that penalise electrification and expansion of existing energy efficiency programs.
 
On 11 December, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the impact of the EU sanctions and price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil has not yet been registered. Prince Abdulaziz also said that “…we see a state of uncertainty in implementation." He considers the price cap to be a “tool created for political purposes” and added that it is not clear if these purposes could be achieved. Prince Abdulaziz said that the impact of the sanctions has not yet been realised because of the uncertainties regarding China’s COVID-19 policies and the measures taken by Central banks to control inflation.
 
On 12 December, the UN reported on UN Aid Chief Martin Griffiths four-day schedule to Ukraine. Starting on 12 December, Griffiths along with the under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator will visit Mykolaiv and Kherson to asses the damage and repair works of energy facilities hit by Russian missiles.

References
Destruction caused by Russian missiles hinders use of TPPs at full capacity - operator,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022 
Food export resumes from Odesa ports after power outage disruptions,” The Kyiv Independent, 12 December 2022
We are doing everything so that the aggressor state does not have a single string of Ukrainian society to pull - address of the President,” president.gov.ua, 11 December 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with Joseph Biden,” president.gov.ua, 12 December 2022
Kherson under massive Russian attack: 2 killed, 5 injured,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
Kherson’s residential district struck with Russian artillery, casualties reported,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
The military expert explained the strategy for the exit of the Russian Armed Forces to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk,” Lenta.ru, 12 December 2022
Official says injuries on LPR servicemen’s bodies mean torture by Ukrainian forces,” Tass, 12 December 2022
Russian diplomat says grain deal needs adjusting to ensure supplies to African nations,” Tass, 12 December 2022
"Russia in talks with IAEA to prevent Zaporozhye plant from posing any threat — envoy,” Tass, 12 December 2022 
Russia has no right to security guarantees – Poland,” RT, 12 December 2022
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia: what Baltic countries write about Ukraine and how it is influenced by Russian
propaganda
,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
Sweden says new military aid package to Ukraine will be 50% bigger than the previous one,” NEWS.am, 12 December 2022
Joe Saballa “Estonia Builds Ukraine Military Cyber Facility to Fend Off Russian Hackers,” The Defense Post, 12 December 2022
The Secretary General of the Council of Europe calls on the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia to comply with the resolutions of the ECHR,” coe.int, 12 December 2022
Foreign Affairs Council: Press remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell after the meeting,” eeas.europa.eu, 12 December 2022
How the European Union can avoid natural gas shortages in 2023,” iea.org, 12 December 2022 
Aziz El Yaakoubi “Saudi energy minister sees no clear results yet from Russia price cap,” Reuters, 11 December 2022
UN aid chief to visit Kherson on Ukraine trip amid power outages,” Reuters, 12 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

DENMARK
Inflation recorded at 8.9 per cent in November
On 12 December, the Local dk reported that Denmark’s consumer goods and services price had averaged 8.9 per cent in November. The inflation fell by 1.2 per cent from October to November. The annual cost of living for a Danish Family's increased by more than DKK 40,000 due to inflation. According to the report, increase in energy prices affects the prices of consumer goods and services. Higher inflation has caused lower purchasing power among the Danish consumers. Although inflation has fallen in November, it is still considered higher than the normal average calculated year-on-year. (“Inflation down in Denmark but forecasts tentative for 2023,” the Local dk, 12 December 2022)

LATVIA
Foreign trade turnover exceeds 2021 figures
On 12 December, Latvia’s Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) published provincial data that revealed Latvia’s foreign trade turnover to be EUR 4.2 billion in October 2022. The export goods in Latvia came up to EUR 1.82 billion in October and the imported goods were worth EUR 2.8 billion. However, compared to October 2021, foreign trade exports have worsened from 45.7 to 43.4 per cent. Latvia’s total foreign trade turnover from January to October amounted to EUR 39.19 billion, 33.3 per cent higher than in 2021. The export value increased by 30.7 per cent and the imports value grew by 35.3 per cent. Latvia exports the most to Lithuania, Estonia, Germany and Sweden and imports from Lithuania, Estonia, Germany and Poland. (“Latvia's foreign trade gap widened in October,” eng.lsm.lv, 12 December 2022)

THE UK
Five fisheries project receives funding from the Environment Department
On 12 December, the UK’s Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Department announced GBP 3.5 million for five fisheries and marine habitat protection research projects across the UK. Plymouth Enterprise Ltd University in partnership with Angling Trust and Professional Boatman’s Association collect data on excessive fishing of vulnerable species such as sharks, black bream and rays. The data help marine species protect from being exploited. Bangor University in collaboration with the British Geological Survey, Orkney Fisheries Association and Welsh Fisherman’s Association looked into climate change impacts on common whelk. They were assigned GBP 400, 000 for the research. The Fisheries Minister said: “A proper understanding of important marine species is vital if we are to manage our fisheries sustainably and safeguard the fishing and seafood sector for future generations.” The research projects are a part of the Fisheries Industry Science Partnership (FISP) scheme, a GBP 100 million UK Seafood government fund concerning research on the UK fisheries and seafood industries. (“Over £3.5m awarded to sustainable fishing projects as new funding round opens,” gov.uk, 12 December 2022)

Conservative Party faces backlash sharing misleading information
On 12 December, the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) condemned the Conservative Party for falsely claiming that the UK had secured GBP 800 billion from new free trade deals with 70 countries since 2016 Brexit. The UKSA’s Chair, Sir Robert Chote, countered the Conservative Intergovernmental Relations Minister Michael Gove’s claims of the UK gaining GBP 800 billion. Chote said that the claim was shared without any proof or sources. He pointed out that many deals with the EU and non-EU states that the Conservative party had mentioned in their claim began before the UK exited from the EU. The Scottish National party’s Minister, Drew Hendry, criticized Gove for spreading misleading and incorrect information through social media. Hendry said: “Brexit has, and will continue to be, an unmitigated disaster for households and businesses across these islands, reducing Scottish exports by a staggering £2.2bn in the last year alone.” (Peter Walker, “Watchdog reprimands Tories over £800bn post-Brexit trade deals claim,” The Guardian, 12 December 2022)    

REGIONAL
Eurostat: Poland hosts the highest number of Ukrainian refugees
On 12 December, Eurostat found the figure of Ukrainians seeking asylum in Latvia since the start of the Ukraine war to be the lowest. Poland topped the list with the most temporary protection status given 54, 520 fleeing Ukrainians among the EU member states in October. It was seconded by Germany with 37, 595, followed by Italy, Romania and Bulgaria. The number of Ukrainians receiving temporary protection status came down to 22 of 27 EU member states since September 2022.  According to the figures, Poland provided temporary protection status to 1.01 million Ukrainian refugees, while Latvia offered to only 35,500 Ukrainians, from March to October 2022. (“1,700 refugees arrived from Ukraine in October,” eng.lsm.lv, 12 December 2022) 

The EU provides EUR 220 million to help Turkish border control
On 12 December, the European Commission approved a EUR 220 million aid package to boost Turkey’s eastern border control. The package aims to help refugees in Turkey with basic needs, socio-economic support for the most vulnerable and border management. The aid comes as part of the EU’s June 2021 package which aimed at assisting refugees in Turkey from 2021 to 2023. The EUR 220 million aid package will fund new equipment such as surveillance masts, cameras and lightning systems to improve Turkey’s border control with Iran and Iraq. The fund also helps Turkey to train officials in border management technology usage, migration law, fundamental rights, and response to large-scale mixed migration. (“EU adopts new programmes in support to refugees and border management in Türkiye worth over €1.2 billion,” ec.europa.eu, 12 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Finland’s Foreign Trade Minister visits the US to strengthen bilateral relations
On 12 December, Finland’s Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Minister Ville Skinnari visit Texas and Washington DC from 12 to 16 December with a trade mission team consisting of businesses and research organizations. Skinnari will sign a Mutual Cooperation Statement with Texas Governor Greg Abbott during the visit. He said: “The purpose of the visit is to promote trade and investment, increase cooperation in high-tech fields and support the networking of research entities.” The trade mission team will look into digitalization, the green economy, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing during its visit to Texas. In the upcoming visit to Washington DC, Skinnari aims to strengthen the bilateral relations between the US and Finland, supply chain security and cooperation in the technological sector. (“Finland strengthens trade relations in increasingly important US market,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 12 December 2022)

The EU supports Niger’s fight against armed terrorism
On 12 December, the European Council approved the creation of a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) military partnership mission with Niger to combat armed terrorist groups. The CSDP will help Niger to contain the threat emanating from the armed terrorist group within itself and protect the people. The Nigerien Armed Forces’ ability will also be bolstered through the partnership. The EU military partnership mission to Niger (EUMPM Niger) will support the creation of the Centre for Training Armed Forces Technicians. The EU will provide training and advice to combat terrorism within Niger and ensure peace and security within the region. The cost of the EUMPM Niger will be EUR 27.3 million. (“Niger: EU establishes a military partnership mission to support the country in its fight against terrorism,” consilium.europa.eu, 12 December 2022)

James Cleverly address highlights the course of UK’s foreign policy
On 12 December, the UK’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly addressed the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office on UK’s foreign policy. Cleverly said that the UK has partnered up with the US, France and 50 other countries to fight for human rights and adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights at the UNGA. The UK wants Brazil, India, Japan and Germany as permanent members of the UNSC, along with permanent African representation. According to Cleverly, the UK will stand with Ukraine and against Russia in the ongoing war. He said that the UK’s future influence will depend on its relations with the countries in the Commonwealth, the African Union and the ASEAN. He said: “The UK must work with our international allies and new partners to sustain the best of this achievement, which seeks to protect every country and create the setting for everyone to prosper.” (“British foreign policy and diplomacy: Foreign Secretary's speech, 12 December 2022,” gov.uk, 12 December 2022)

 


12 December 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #381

War in Ukraine: Day 290 & 291 | UK MOD warns on increasing Iran's military support to Russia

Photo : Reuters/Alarabiya


War in Ukraine: Day 290 & 291
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 11 December, General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces release a statement taking responsibility for the attacks into Melitopol using five missiles. It said: “Units of rocket troops and artillery at the same time hit seven control points, 10 personnel concentration areas, an artillery concentration area and an enemy ammunition depot.”

On 11 December, it marked one month of withdrawal from Kherson of Russia, the on ground situation remains difficult for the residents as shelling continue. According to Kherson’s administration 96 people have been hospitalized and 41 recorded dead. The internal heating restoration has progressed only to 70 to 80 per cent and of 320,000 people, only 70,000 people are remaining after the withdrawal.

On 11 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his daily address reported on the restoration of energy facilities in Odessa. The supply of electricity in Odessa was reported to be partially restored but in Kyiv, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Zakarpattia, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk region still face power shortage. On 10 December, he reported on the aggressive Russian attack in the Bakhmut in the form of missiles, rocket, and airstrikes causing mass destruction.

On 11 December, Ukraine’s strategic weapons and military hardware manufacturer, Ukroboronprom State Concern’s project manager, Oleh Boldyrev, said that Ukraine was developing its drones to surpass Iranian-made shahid kamikaze UAVs. According to Boldyrev, the UAVs will help the Armed Forces to attack the Russian army’s rear. 

On 10 December, Ukraine’s electrical transmission operator, Ukrenergo, reported in a Facebook post that the Ukraine government would receive a EUR 300 million loan from EBRD through the Netherlands government’s grant. The loan along with another government-approved EUR 32.5 million loan would be used for financing the reconstruction of energy infrastructures across Ukraine that were damaged by Russian attacks.   

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 December, in an interview Russia’s Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the Minsk agreement’s other participants’ ignorance was responsible for the special military operation. The failure of implementing the Minsk agreement was termed the precursor to the special military operation. Peskov said: “President [of Russia Vladimir] Putin and other our representatives were constantly stating it. But all this was ignored by other participants of the negotiations process. This all foreran the special military operation.” 

On 11 December, Lenta ru reported on Russian Kursk region, Governor Roman Starovoit comments on the region’s voluntary people’s squad for using the private military company (PMC) Wagner group’s training site. According to Starovoit, the voluntary people’s squad consists of those people who were not selected for the partial mobilization even though they have prior combat experience. The people’s squad operations include patrolling the streets, defending critical infrastructures and extinguishing fires.

On 11 December, TASS reported that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met with Turkey’s Erdogan in Istanbul to discuss trade, energy and the grain deal. Turkey-Russia bilateral trade saw a growth in trade turnover in 2022. Both leaders discussed joint energy projects and the establishment of a gas hub in Turkey. They also discussed ways to prolong the grain deal to provide food shipments to needy countries.

On 11 December, RT reported that Russia’s Former President and current Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev commented on Russia’s defence sector is boosting weapons production to hinder the West which is supporting Ukraine. He said that Russia was increasing its defence capabilities due to the West and Ukraine being treated as enemies and Ukraine threatening Russia’s security with drone strikes. The production of arms and ammunition are expected to be increased.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 December, US President Joe Biden in a call with Zelenskyy highlighted US’s focus to be henceforth on boosting Ukraine’s air force to counter Russia’s unmanned vehicles and assured to hold Russia accountable for war crimes.

On 10 December, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update reported on the increasing support of Iran to Russia in supply of weapons, ballistic missiles. In return Russia has promised to provide technical and military support to Iran to improve their defence relationship. They also predicted for expansion of Russia’s SS-26 Iskander ballistic missiles and warned over the increased participation of Iran in the war which likely puts Ukraine’s national infrastructure.

On 10 December, the European Council agrees on EUR 18 billion as financial aid to Ukraine for 2023, despite Hungary’s objection to the package. The package was adopted through the written procedure and will be submitted to the European Parliament for further approval. The package consists of a structural solution for Ukraine’s financial aid in 2023. The EUR 18 billion loan will have a ten-year grace period. The EU plans to provide immediate short-term relief to Ukraine’s budget and finance its needs with the package. The package also aims to help Ukraine with the reconstruction of infrastructure and recovery from the war. 

On 10 December, Germany’s Embassy in Kyiv announced in a Telegram post that its Federal Technical Assistance Agency (THW) provided Ukraine with 470 electric generators worth EUR 19.5 million. According to the Embassy, part of the generators will be sent directly to Ukrenergo and the rest to Odesa, Nikolaev and Kherson regions. Germany’s Foreign Affairs funded the humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. On 10 December, the European Commission reported in a tweet that it has sent 40 generators to Ukraine from its rescEU reserves. The 220 kVA generators will provide power to Ukraine through winter after Russia attacked its critical energy infrastructure. 

On 10 December, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda tweeted that Belarus’ offer to help with grain transportation via its territory to Lithuania is an excuse to escape sanctions. He cautioned Belarus’ move to be a trap and said that Ukrainian grain travelling through Poland to reach the Baltic states was sufficient. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 10 December, AZERTAC reported that Azerbaijan provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine to help it through the winter. Four trucks with 45 transformers and 50 units of generators worth AZN one million 422 thousand were sent to Ukraine to help restore stable electricity supply in the territories that were damaged.

On 10 December, Australia’s government-imposed sanctions on seven Russian individuals for violating human rights. The individuals that are involved in an attempted assassination of Putin’s former opposition leader Alexei Navalny are included in the sanctions, Australia financially sanctioned three individuals who are responsible for supplying shahid drones to Russia that destroyed Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure. The Australian government urged Russia to end the meaningless war in Ukraine.

References
We are doing everything so that the aggressor state does not have a single string of Ukrainian society to pull - address of the President,” president.gov.ua, 11 December 2022
Wagner Group’s headquarters blown up in occupied Kadiivka – Haidai,” Ukrinform, 11 December 2022
Ukraine Actively Developing Domestic Drones,” Kyiv Post, 11 December 2022
NPC Ukrenergo, “Soon Ukrenergo will be able to purchase some of the critically needed equipment to restore network infrastructure damaged by the Russians.,” Facebook, 10 December 2022
Peskov called the failure to comply with the Minsk agreements a forerunner of a special operation,” Lenta.ru, 11 December 2022
Kremlin says failure to implement Minsk-2 foreran special military operation,” TASS, 11 December 2022
In the Kursk region, they announced the training of people's squads at the sites of PMC "Wagner",” Lenta.ru, 11 December 2022
Russia increasing production of advanced weaponry – Medvedev,” RT, 11 December 2022
Putin, Erdogan discuss gas hub project, grain deal, situation in Syria,” TASS, 11 December 2022
Council adopts €18 billion assistance to Ukraine,” consilium.europa.eu, 10 December 2022
Gitanas Nauseda, “An offer by Belarus to transport Ukrainian grain through its territory to Lithuania is just another attempt to escape sanctions.,” Twitter, 10 December 2022
Treasury Sanctions Over 40 Individuals and Entities Across Nine Countries Connected to Corruption and Human Rights Abuse,” home.treasury.gov, 09 December 2022
Embassy of Germany in Kyiv, “The Federal Agency for Technical Assistance (THW) provides Ukraine with 470 power generators of various power classes with a total cost of 19.5 million euros.,” Facebook, 10 December 2022
European Commission, “Winter in Ukraine will be cold and dark, as Russia’s missiles continue to target vital energy infrastructure.,” Twitter, 10 December 2022
Azerbaijan sends humanitarian aid to Ukraine, consisting of basic electrical equipment,” azertag.az, 10 December 2022
Targeted sanctions in response to Iranian and Russian human rights violations and invasion of Ukraine,” foreignminister.gov.au, 10 December 2022
Ukraine updates: Kherson marks 1 month since liberation,” Deutsche Welle, 12 December 2022
Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 291 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 11 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh


THE UK 
Jeremy Hunt introduced Edinburgh Reform to deal with post-Brexit consequences
On 09 December, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt announced the “Edinburgh Reform a new set of financial regulations which looks to deal with the consequences of Brexit on financial services. The Reforms looks to make the UK “the world’s most innovative and competitive global financial centre.” The new reforms are based on “agility, consistently high regulatory standards, and openness.” According to Hunt, the reforms will help the UK set up a financial services regulation to bolster competitive and stable financial services. Hunt added that this was possible due to “Brexit freedoms" or the “UK’s position outside the EU.” There are more than 30 proposed reforms some of which include, reforming the Ring-Fencing Regime for Banks, lifting caps on bankers’ bonuses, introducing a plan for repealing and reforming EU law using powers within the FSM Bill and building a smarter regulatory framework for the UK, and reformation of the Securitization Regulation. (Alasdair Sandford  “UK to ease financial rules in post-Brexit shake-up to boost global clout,” Euronews, 12 December 2022 and “Financial Services: The Edinburgh Reforms,” gov.uk, 09 December 2022)  
 
ITALY
Two rescue ships carrying over 500 migrants dock at Italian ports
On 11 December, the Italian authorities allowed two rescue ships carrying over 500 migrants to dock in the ports of Salerno and Bari. The Geo Barents Ship with 248 migrants docked in Salerno and the Humanity 1 with 261 migrants docked in Bari. The two ships were reportedly allowed to dock due to bad weather conditions to mitigate risks to those on board. This comes as Italy is looking to introduce new regulations regarding the entry of rescue ships and rescued migrants. (“509 Migrants Arrive in Italy as Rescue Ships Dock,” VOA, 11 December 2022) 
 
FRANCE
Eric Ciotti elected as the new leader of the Les Republicains party 
On 11 December, Eric Ciotti was elected as the new leader of the Les Republicains (LR) party scoring a majority of 53.7 per cent of the votes. His opponent Brumo Retailleau scored 46.3 per cent of the total votes. Eric Ciotti is a right-wing politician who looks to “rehabilitate the value of work, fight against violence and disorder in the streets, stop the migratory invasion and the rise of Islamism." ( “French conservative party chooses right-wing Ciotti as leader,” France 24, 11 December 2022)
 
ROMANIA
Romania defuses mine explosion nearing Black Sea shore
On 10 December, the Romanian Defense Ministry said that the country’s navy executed a “controlled” explosion of a naval mine that had “drifted” close to Romania’s Black Sea shore. The Ministry added that the navy was notified by a Turkish cargo ship 2.5 nautical miles north of the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta. This comes as mines began floating in the Black Sea after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish military diving teams have continued to defuse mines drifting in their waters. Since the war, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine have destructed nearly 40 mines in the western waters of the Black Sea. (“Romania defuses mine drifting close to its Black Sea shore,” AlArabiya News, 10 December 2022)
 
REGIONAL 
EULEX and Kosovan Police were attacked by Kosovo Serbs
On 11 December, Kovovan Serbs launched a blockade in a protest opposing the arrest of a former Kosovan Serb who was part of the police force. The blockade in northern Kosovo led to the forceful closure of two border crossings between Koso and Serbia. The Kosovan Police later reported that the Kosovan Serbs had opened fire against the police units from various locations. The Kosovo Serbs reportedly also attacked the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) with a stun grenade. Both these attacks drew criticism from the EU and NATO with the EU Foreign Policy Chief condemning the incident saying: "This attack, as well as the attacks on Kosovo Police officers, are unacceptable." EU Chief Diplomat Joseph Borrell also condemned the incident saying, "EU will not tolerate attacks on EULEX Kosovo or use of violent, criminal acts in the north," and called for peace to be restored. NATO Spokesperson Oana Lungescu called the attacks unacceptable and tweeted: "Any such attacks are unacceptable and those responsible must be held to account." Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that he would be requesting the NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo to allow the deployment of Serbian troops and police in Kosovo, but acknowledged that it might not be granted. (“Serbia’s Vucic says will ask NATO permission to deploy troops in Kosovo as tensions flare,” France 24, 11 December 2022 and Beyza Binnur Donmez “Borrell warns against attacks on EU mission in Kosovo,” Anadolu Agency, 11 December 2022)
 
Tayfun missile tests creates fear amongst the Greece claims Erdogan
On 11 December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that Turkey producing their own missiles “frightens the Greeks” and added that “When you say ‘Tayfun’ (Typhoon), the Greek is scared. He said that if Greece continues to arm the Aegean Islands, Turkey will “not be a bystander.” The Tayfun missile is a short-range missile produced by Turkey which can hit targets 561 kilometres away in 456 seconds. Turkey test-fired this missile in October over the Black Sea. (Diyar Guldogan “Türkiye's ballistic missile test 'scares' Greece: President,” Anadolu Agency, 11 December 2022)
 
Erdogan insists Putin supports Turkey’s plans for Syria
On 11 December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a call discussed Turkey-Russia relations in terms of energy, grain corridor and regional affairs. Of which Turkey’s “ambitions” in Syria was in focus where Erdogan asked Putin to support his 30-kilometre security corridor. The corridor that will be built along the Turkey-Syriya border inhabited and controlled by Kurds. Erdogan is said to have asked for this request based on a 2019 agreement between Turkey and Russia which allows the two to set up a zone that would fall under Syrian and Russian Control. This comes as Turkey is ramping up its fight against Kurdish militant groups in Syria. (“Erdogan and Putin discuss grain corridor, gas deal and Syria,” Deutsche Welle, 11 December 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
US permits the sale of 116 Ex-M1A1SA Abrams main battle tanks to Poland
On 11 December, the Defence Security Cooperation Agency said that Poland had requested a package of 116 M1A1SA Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs) from the US stocks for nearly USD 3.75 billion. The package is said to have 116 M1A1 MBTs, 12 M88A2 armoured recovery vehicles, 26 M1152A1 HMMWVs and other heavy machine equipment from the country. The order also included 51,751 rounds of training ammunition and allows nearly 500 crews under training and armour tanks to be “fully replenished” more than 50 times. On 06 December, Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that the US State Department had approved the sale of the 116 M1A1SA Abrams MBTs and indicated that the first M1A1SA Abrams are scheduled to be delivered to the country in 2023. This delivery will leave Poland to operate a total of 366 M1 Abrams from the US and South Korea, along with the domestically developed equipment that would cover a large and varied tank fleet. (“US Approves Sale of 116 Ex-US M1A1SA Abrams MBTs for Poland,” Estonian Free Press, 11 December 2022)

 

 


08 December 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #378

War in Ukraine: Day 287 | EU announced the ninth sanction package

Windfall taxes solves a little of Hungary's economic woes; Northern Ireland MLAs face pay cuts; EU provides funds to support Belarus

Photo : Sky News


War in Ukraine: Day 287
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 07 December, Ukraine’s spokesperson Deputy Head Roman Mashovets met the Ambassadors and Defence Attachés of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. In the meeting, Mashovets briefed the representatives regarding the situation at the frontlines, the measures taken to counter Russian attacks and the requirements of Ukraine in terms of weapons and ammunition. The representatives were also briefed about increasing Russian military presence in Belarus including the training facilities for mobilised Russian personnel in Belarus who are then deployed in Ukraine.
 
On 07 December, the Ukrainian Minister of Culture and Information Oleksandr Tkachenko said that over 1000 cultural sites had been destroyed in Ukraine since the war began. According to Tkachenko, cultural infrastructure like clubs and libraries have also been destroyed along with cultural heritage sites. He thanked foreign allies for their support in preserving the cultural sites. Tkachenko added that the main challenges for the preservation of Ukraine’s culture are a decrease in production in creative industries and talent.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Council for Civil Society and Human Rights to discuss the Russian military operation in Ukraine. In the meeting, Putin reportedly said that the operation in Ukraine will continue until all Russian objectives are achieved. Calling it a lengthy process, he highlighted the gains that Russia achieved which includes the annexation of the four Ukrainian territories. When the question of additional mobilisation was brought up, Putin refuted it saying that more than 300,000 reserve troops were added to the military. He added that out of the 300,000, only 150,000 are on the battlefields and the rest are either stationed in training centres or reserves. He added: “In these conditions, talking about any additional mobilization activities simply does not make sense, and there is no need for the state and the Ministry of Defense today.”
 
On 07 December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the West of misleading the developing nations to garner support in the UNGA to pass resolutions targeting Russia. Lavrov said that the West is using the UN “blindly” to assure developing nations that the resolution passed is “only about the moral and ethical evaluation of Russia’s actions.” Lavrov added that the West will use this resolution to seize Russian assets outside the UN. He said that the same pattern is being used to set up an international tribunal against Russia and added that such moves would not be legally binding on Russia or any country. 
 
On 07 December, RT reported that US imports from Russia doubled in October despite US sanctions on Russia. It reported that in October, the US imported goods worth USD 732 million from Russia compared to USD 332.1 million in September. The US had imported fertilizers, iron, steel, and nonferrous metals. Whereas the US exports to Russia, the amount decreased to USD 80.1 million compared to USD 90.4 million in September. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 December, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the ninth sanctions package against Russia. The package has proposed six new sanctions, which include the addition of 200 individuals and entities to the sanctions list. The Russian armed forces, members of the Federation Council and the State Duma are some of the new additions to the list. The package also proposes sanctions to be levied on three more Russian banks and a full transaction ban on the Russian Regional Development Bank, new restrictions on exports such as electronics, key chemicals and IT components. The proposal also looks to ban the direct supply of drone engines to Russia which also extends to third-party countries that in turn can supply drones to Russia. Lastly, the package proposes more economic sanctions on the Russian energy and mining sectors and the removal of four Russian propaganda channels from all distribution platforms. 
 
On 07 December, the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) Tour fined the Lawn Tennis Association (LTA) for its decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players from competing at Wimbledon. The ATP imposed a fine of USD one million and has threatened the LTA with expulsion from the ATP Tour. The LTA in response said they were disappointed with the decision and added that the ATP “..has shown no recognition of the exceptional circumstances created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, or the international sporting community and UK Government's response to that invasion.” The LTA added that they are considering their response to the fine and expulsion. 
 
On 07 December, Saeima’s Defence, Internal Affairs and Corruption Prevention Committee announced that all the Ukrainian refugees employed in Latvia are mandated to attend Latvian language classes from 01 January 2024. The Committee’s decision is based on a proposal from the Ministry of Culture. Currently, no such requirements are there for Non-Latvian groups. Lawmakers have criticised this decision by saying that the refugee status of Ukrainian implies that they must return back to Ukraine once the war is over. Saeima lawmaker Edmunds Zivtiņš and deputy Jānis Dombrava expressed support for the decision and added that this will make life easier for Ukrainians who are planning to stay back in Latvia. 
 
On 07 December, BelTA reported that the Belarusian military will be moving forces and military equipment as a part of a counterterrorism exercise. This has sparked rumours that Russia is planning a separate attack front from Belarus. Belarus’s Security Council added that the movement of forces and military equipment will restrict citizens’ movement as some “..public roads and areas will be restricted and the use of imitation weapons for training purposes is planned.” The areas of these exercises and their nature are yet to be disclosed.
 
On 07 December, Turkish energy company Karpowership Trade Group announced plans to supply about 400 megawatts of electricity to Ukraine through Moldova and Romania. The Karpowership Trade Group President Zeynep Harezi said that the company is in talks with the aid organisations and the UN to develop an efficient plan to supply electricity to Ukraine. Harezi said that electricity transmission through Moldova and Romania will take place as ships dock in the ports and electricity is unloaded. He added that with the lift of restrictions on insurance on boats, it will be possible for ships to travel to Ukraine and supply electricity directly.  
 
On 06 December, the US through the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) announced an additional USD 800 million in security assistance to Ukraine. The Act included US President Joe Bidens proposal for a USD 500 million increase in the assistance provided to Ukraine. The Act is now tabled in the Senate and once it passes there it will be sent to Biden for his assent. The NDAA is a program created to map out the defence spending of the US. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 06 December, the UNSC met to discuss the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and diplomatic solutions to bring the war to an end. In the meeting, the ambassadors of Russia and the US engaged in a verbal spat where the two accused each other of showing “no interest in Ukraine talks.” The Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzi said that Russia hears the call for a diplomatic solution to end the conflict and added that Russia is ready to “conduct negotiations” and remove the “root cause” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nebenzi then went on to accuse the west of stalling diplomatic solutions as it was supplying weapons to Kyiv saying: “What you’re seeing now is an ongoing war of the West against Russia. … This is something that leaves us no other option but to continue the aims of our SMO.” In response to these allegations, US Deputy Ambassador to the UN Lisa Carty said that it is Russia that “has no genuine interest in negotiation or meaningful diplomacy,” which is seen from its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The UNSC council is meeting again on 09 December to discuss weapons from Ukraine allegedly falling into the wrong hands. 
 
On 06 December, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) urged Western airlines to resume flights over Russia to reduce the crowding of European air spaces. The IATA Head Willie Walsh said that this will also increase flight efficiency from Europe to Asia. Walsh added that the diversion of flight routes to avoid Russian airspace through Europe is unsustainable. Walsh also said that the resumption of such routes should only happen once the Russia-Ukraine conflict is over.

References
Roman Mashovets held a meeting with representatives of the embassies of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands,” president.gov.ua, 07 December 2022  
More than 1,000 cultural sites in Ukraine destroyed - minister,” Ukrinform, 07 December 2022  
Andriy Olenin  Russian media ‘plunge Ukraine into Middle Ages’ after blackout by inventing ‘Apocalyptic pictures’,” Ukrinform, 07 December 2022 
HomeRussia & FSU Donbass collision kills 16 – regional head,” RT, 07 December 2022 
West exploiting UN to promote idea of tribunal against Russia — Lavrov,” Tass, 07 December 2022
US imports from Russia more than double – Census Bureau,” RT, 07 December 2022  
Ukraine operation could take a long time – Putin,” RT, 07 December 2022 
Russia doesn't need additional mobilization – Putin,” RT, 07 December 2022 
Meeting of the Civil Society Development and Human Rights Council,” kremlin.ru, 07 December 2022
Nathan Salt “LTA is threatened with EXPULSION from the ATP Tour if Russian and Belarusian players are banned from Wimbledon again... as British tennis' governing body is slapped with an £822,000 fine,” MailOnline, 07 December 2022
LETA “Ukrainian civilians in Latvia will have to study state language in order to find jobs,” Baltic News Network, 07 December 2022
Belarus to move troops, equipment amid Ukrainian fears of attack,” Al Jazeera, 07 December 2022
Nuran Erkul Kaya “Turkish company Karpowership plans to supply electricity to Ukraine via Moldova and Romania,” Anadolu Agency, 07 December 2022 
Press statement by President von der Leyen on the ninth package of sanctions against Russia,” ec.europa.eu, 07 December 2022            
Patricia Zengerle and Mike Stone “U.S. lawmakers authorize $800 million more for Ukraine in defense bill,” Reuters, 07 December 2022 
At UN, US and Russia accuse each other of no interest in Ukraine talks,” EURACTIV, 07 December 2022
Western airlines need to return to Russian airspace – IATA,” RT, 07 December 2022  


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

DENMARK
Denmark approved CO2 storage in a former offshore oil field
On 06 December, the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) allowed the UK’s INEOS E&P and the Norwegian Wintershall Dea oil and gas companies to store 15,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in a former offshore oil field in the North Sea. The foreign companies were given four months to experiment, develop and show that CO2 can be stored according to the Greensand Pilot Injection Project. The companies were granted permission to use the Nini West oil field that was formerly owned by Denmark. Denmark’s Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Program funded the project with DKK 197 million. Greensand is the first project to receive Denmark’s permission to store carbon in a cleaner and safer way. The CO2 will be stored in the sandstone reservoir 1,800 meters below sea level. (“Denmark grants 1st permission for carbon storage in the North Sea,” en.trendz.az, 06 December 2022)

HUNGARY
Viktor Orban to shift energy profits to state budgets
On 08 December, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that the government would convert the extra profits of energy companies to state budgets. He said that the windfall taxes would be increased to 95 per cent from 40 per cent for energy companies on the Brent-Ural region. Orban accused the EU for placing price caps on the Russian oil exports, which resulted in lower crude imports to Hungary vias the Druzhba oil pipeline. The oil and gas companies are reluctant to sell due to lower prices and higher taxes. Orban said that the windfall taxes would sustain Hunagry’s poor economy. The EU has withheld Covid recovery funds from Hungary due to the rule of law issues. (Gergely Szakacs and Krisztina Than, “Orban raids oil 'extra profits' after scrapping fuel price cap,” Reuters, 08 December 2022)

Northern Ireland
Pay reduced for MLA under the new bill
On 07 December, Northern Ireland’s Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris received parliamentary approval to reduce the salary of MLAs by 27.5 per cent according to the Executive Formation Act. Since February 2022, Northern Ireland’s MLAs were unable to perform their complete duties due to the devolved government. The MLA will receive their full pay when the Assembly is fully restored. The need for pay reduction reflected the cost-of-living crisis in the region. Heaton-Harris requested Northern Ireland’s parties to use the time that the act is implemented to restore the assembly. (“Northern Ireland Secretary announces 27.5% reduction to MLA pay,” gov.uk, 07 December 2022)

THE UK
Anti-tank weapon ordered from Swedish manufacturer to comply NATO’s requirements
On 07 December, the UK’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that the UK had signed a EUR 229 million deal with Swedish weapon manufacturer Saab for the Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon systems (NLAW). The NLAW will be assembled at a facility in Belfast in Northern Ireland. The UK Armed Forces will receive 500 NLAW units in 2023 and several thousand units between 2024 to 2026. The new supply replenished the UK Armed Forces to meet NATO requirements. The UK’s NLAWs were sent to Ukraine to use against the Russian aggression in the ongoing war. (“UK orders thousands more anti-tank weapons to bolster stockpiles,” gov.uk, 07 December 2022) 

REGIONAL
EUR 25 million approved to support Belarus
On 07 December, the EU approved EUR 25 million to help Belarus achieve democracy from its oppressive regime. In August 2020, the people’s protest President Aleksandr Lukashenko committing election fraud was suppressed by the government. The EU programme, EU4Belarus aims to improve human rights and “support democratic aspirations” in Belarus. The assistance boosts the protection of civil society activists who fight for democracy and human rights in Belarus. It also helps students and workers by increasing scholarships, training, and professional exchanges with the EU. The EU has supported Belarus’ people with EUR 30 million in 2022 and EUR 100 million since the fraudulent August 2022 election. (“Commission will provide €25 million to support the democratic aspirations in Belarus,” ec.europa.eu, 07 December 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
The UK and the US sign agreement to boost energy supply
On 07 December, the UK signed an energy partnership with the US to increase LNG supply. The UK would increase the US LNG export to phase-out Russian energy supplies and reduce their dependency on Russia. The UK-US Energy Security and Affordability Partnership look to decrease energy prices in the UK and ensure a continuous energy supply. The partnership also aims to invest in clean energy, with both countries working together to improve energy efficiency and lower gas demands. The UK plans to import nine to ten billion cubic metres of LNG over 2023 under the partnership. (“U.S., Britain launch energy partnership to boost supplies,” Reuters, 07 December 2022)

Chinese customs data reveals a trade booms between China and Russia in 2022
On 07 December, according to China’s Customs’ General Administration data, the trade between Russia and China increased by 32 per cent between January and November compared to 2021. The trade turnover reached USD 172.4 billion overall in 2022 and USD 18.2 billion in November alone. The data shows China exporting goods worth USD 67.3 billion to Russia in 2022 and Russia’s exports to China amount to USD 105.072 billion. China primarily imports Russia’s subsidized energy supply after the West placed sanctions on it. Russia and China would achieve their goal of mutual trade of up to USD 200 billion by 2024. (“Russia-China trade smashes record – customs data,” RT, 07 December 2022)

 

 

 


07 December 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #377

War in Ukraine: Day 286 | Norway agree to support EUMAM Ukraine

Turkey demands Finland to lift arms embargo; Turkey urges Greece to demilitarize Aegean Islands; Protests in Albania against Prime Minister Edi Rama

Photo : Cpl Anil Gurung/UK MoD


War in Ukraine: Day 286
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 06 December, in an interview with CNN, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yuliya Svyridenko pointed out the retainment of export potential by Ukraine despite Russia’s aggression. According to a KSE Institute and Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry report, Ukraine’s agricultural exports were worth USD 21.1 billion between January and November, which was 13.7 per cent lower compared to the same period in 2021. The direct loss in the agricultural sector was calculated as USD 6.6 billion and the indirect loss was USD 34.25 billion. The July 2022 Grain Corridor Initiative and the new Grain from Ukraine program boosted agricultural exports after Russia halted ships in Odessa port.

On 06 December, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk said in a Facebook post that he participated in the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly meeting with Lithuania, Poland parliamentary heads and the US Congress's Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman, Robert Kelly Menendez. The meeting focused on Russian aggression in Ukraine and its attacks on Ukraine’s important energy facilities and civilian infrastructures in the recent missile strike. The need for more anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence was also discussed. 

On 06 December, Ukraine’s Armed Forces released a statement on the 120th defence brigade that was a joint-staff exercise with other military units near Ukraine's border with Belarus. The military exercise focused on training soldiers in the lower and upper headquarters with interaction skills. The exercise took place in the defence zone near the border.

On 06 December, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Moldova’s Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita signed on defence, energy, logistics, trade and economic cooperation between both countries. European integration and ways to stop Russian aggression were also discussed. Ukraine and Moldova also agreed on air defence and border control cooperation.

On 06 December, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Germany to provide them Leopard 2 tanks, Patriot systems and Marder infantry fighting vehicles in addition to the Gepard anti-aircraft guns and Iris-T air defence missile system that Ukraine had already received. He thanked Ukraine’s Western allies for providing military aid. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 December, Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu accused Ukraine for launching 33 shells on Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and called the act as “nuclear terrorism.” Shoigu added: “Our units are taking all [necessary] measures to ensure the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant’s safety.”

On 06 December, TASS reported on Latvia’s National Electronic Mass Media Council cancellation of “broadcasting license” of Dozhd TV due to national security concerns. The cancellation comes into effect from 08 December.

On the EU imposing of energy price cap Russia spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the price cap would not affect it as Russia economy is has the necessary capacity. He highlighted that such measures will affect the stability of the global energy market but not on Russia’s special military operation.

On 06 December, Russian Governor of the Kursk city claimed on another drone attack on an airfield in Kursk which led to the blaze of an oil storage near the airfield. He added: “As a result of a drone attack, an oil storage tank caught fire in the area of the Kursk airfield. The fire is being localized. All emergency agencies are on site.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 December, the EU and Norway signed an agreement to support EU Military Assistance Mission in Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) by contributing NOK 150 million as financial aid. The agreement was first announced on 31 October. However, it comes into effect after Norway signed formally. The voluntary financial contribution will help Ukraine’s Armed Forces with its training and additional equipment.

On 06 December, Latvia’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Janis Karklins, condemned Russia at the UNSC meeting. She discussed on energy needs of Ukraine in the winter. She added that Russian missile strikes have damaged the energy infrastructure of Ukraine, resulting in electrical shutdowns and energy shortages in afflicted regions. She supported the idea of the Special International Tribunal to prosecute Russia for its war crimes against Ukraine.     

On 06 December, Hungary vetoed EU’s financial aid of EUR 18 billion to Ukraine for its 2023 budget at the EU Economics and Finance Ministers meeting. In response EU member states withheld Hungary’s EUR 7.5 billion aid that was assigned to it. The EU member states also withheld Hungary’s EUR 5.8 billion COVID recovery fund. However, the EU adopted the amendment to the financial regulation to allow financial assistance in the diversified funding strategy.    

On 06 December, the UK Defence Ministry in its intelligence update reported that two Tu-95 BEAR heavy bombers were damaged at the Engels airbase in the Saratov region and a fuel tank exploded at the Dyagilyaevo airbase in the Ryazan region due to Ukraine’s drone attack. Engels airbase is over 600 kilometres from Ukraine-controlled regions. This holds Russia’s Long Range Aviation in western Russia and has 30 heavy bombers within it.  

On 05 December, Montenegro’s Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a joined declaration at Abazovic’s office in Podgorica to help Ukraine become a member of the Euro-Atlantic society. Montenegro promised to support Ukraine’s defence force by donating 11 per cent of its military budget as defence aid.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 06 December, Poland received its first set of military vehicles from South Korea. Ten Black Panther K2 tanks and 24 Thunder K9 howitzers worth USD 5.8 billion arrived at the Gdynia port on the Baltic Sea coast of Poland. The deal replenishes and strengthens Poland’s defence systems as it had contributed to Ukraine’s military aid. South Korea’s Armaments Agency Minister Eom Dong-hwan said that South Korea’s weapons deal would strengthen its relations with Poland.  

On 06 December, International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan called out to the international community to help with ICC’s budget to conduct an investigation on Russia’s war crimes against Ukraine. He said that ICC has been facing a financial shorthand and could not implement the Special Tribunal against Russia, which was proposed by the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Khan warned of the difficulty in organizing a Russian Tribunal by the ICC.

References
THIS YEAR, UKRAINE EXPORTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS WORTH 21.1 BILLION DOLLARS, - YULIA SVYRIDENKO IN AN INTERVIEW WITH CNN,” me.gov.ua, 06 December 2022
Ruslan Stefanchuk, “Meeting of the Presidium of the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine.,” Facebook, 06 December 2022
Ukrainian Armed Forces hold exercises near border with Belarus,” Ukrinform, 06 December 2022
Ukraine and Moldova agreed to cooperate in air defense and improve border control, – Denys Shmyhal,” kmu.gov.ua, 06 December 2022
Kuleba calls on Berlin to lift ban on Patriot, Leopard 2 supplies to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 06 December 2022
Kuleba: Ukraine warns Iran about consequences of arms supplies to Russia, ready to act.,” Ukrinform, 06 December 2022
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’,” RT, 06 December 2022  
Latvia pulls Dozhd TV channel’s license,” TASS, 06 December 2022
Kremlin assures oil price cap won’t affect Russia’s special military operation,” TASS, 05 December 2022
EU and Norway sign an agreement in support of EUMAM Ukraine,” consilium.europa.eu, 06 December 2022
Statement by the Republic of Latvia on behalf of the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine,” mfa.gov.lv, 06 December 2022
Jan Strupczewski and Gabriela Baczynska, “Hungary vetoes EU aid for Ukraine, bloc delays decision on funds for Budapest,” Reuters, 06 December 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 06 December 2022,” Twitter, 06 December 2022
Montenegro-Office of the Prime Minister, “Abazović and Zelenskyy to sign a joint declaration,” gov.me, 06 December 2022
First delivery of S. Korean heavy weapons comes to Poland“ AP News, 06 December 2022
ICC Prosecutor Warns over Russia Tribunal Plan,” Kyiv Post, 06 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

ALBANIA 
Protests erupt in Tirana criticizing poor governance
On 06 December, Former Prime Minister Sali Berisha and his Democratic Party led a protest in Tirana criticizing Prime Minister Edi Rama.  The opposition accused Rama for using the EU-Western Balkans Summit to cover up Albania's internal problems. The protest started at Skanderbeg square and ended at Martyrs of Nation Boulevard. The opposition members largely outlined the problems Albania is facing because of Rama and his administration and Berisha asked the EU to not support Rama. Berisha added “In Albania, the real power is the mafia, because the government is connected to it.” Berisha ended the protest by promising to, “do everything to overthrow Rama from Power.” (Kristi Geta “What Happened during 2 hours of Opposition's Protest,” Albanian Daily News, 06 December 2022; "Former PM Asks Police to Release Perpetrator Who Punched Him,” Albanian Daily News, 06 December 2022; "Berisha Calls on EU Leaders Not to Be Deceived by Rama,” Albanian Daily News, 06 December 2022)

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama calls for EU integration 
On 06 December, Albanian President Edi Rama in an interview with EURACTIV on the sidelines of the EU-Western Balkan said that while EU enlargement is welcomed the actual integration process is “individual and merit-based.” Rama added that the integration process should be authentic and that the countries should follow due process and not “cheat”. At the Summit, Rama said that the decision to hold the summit in Tirana shows the EU’s commitment towards the integration of the region into the EU framework. He seemed hesitant on the support of EU members for the integration of the Western Balkan countries. Rama said that while there was “interest” among the members for the enlargement, except for Germany and France no other country has openly shown support for the integration of new members. (Alice Taylor “Rama: EU accession not an ‘exam you can cheat on’, more work needed,” EURACTIV, 06 December 2022)
 
GREECE
Police officer accused for shooting a teenager
On 06 December, a 34-year-old police officer in Thessaloniki was presented before the court on the charge of shooting a 16-year-old Roma. On 05 December, police chased the teenager after he ran without paying money at the petrol station. The officer fired two bullets and the boy reportedly lost control of his vehicle and crashed into the wall. He was taken to a nearby hospital to treat his injuries. After the incident, the police officer was arrested and suspended. In Thessaloniki, thousands protested, where Police used tear gas and stun grenades to suppress the protestors. Protestors also barricaded the hospital at which the boy is being treated and even set fire to dumpster cans. Six people were detained by the police. The officer has been given time to defend before the formal trial by an investigating magistrate. (“Protests erupt in Greece over teenager’s shooting in police chase,” Al Jazeera, 06 December 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Cirkovce-Pince transmission line openend connecting Slovenia, Hungary and Croatia 
On 06 December, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob formally opened the Cirkovce-Pince transmission line and the Cirkovce substation juncture which connects Slovenia, Hungary and Croatia.  The opening was attended by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Croatian Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Davor Filipović. The  Cirkovce-Pince transmission line is a part of the EU’s efforts to integrate Europe’s energy market. The line is 80.5 kilometres long and will be run by Slovenian transmission system operator ELES. The project cost EUR 160 million of which EUR 48 million was funded by the EU’s Connecting Europe Facility. (Igor Todorović, “Slovenia completes power interconnection with Croatia, Hungary,” Balkan Green Energy News, 06 December 2022)
 
EU Regulation on deforestation-free supply chains agreement signed
On 06 December, the European Commission announced that the European Parliament and Council have reached an agreement regarding the EU Regulation on deforestation-free supply chains. The proposal once adapted will ensure that due diligence is done in the exports and imports of palm oil, cattle, soy, coffee, cocoa, timber, rubber and derived products. These products were identified by the European Council and Parliament as the products whose production contributes to deforestation. Companies trading these products will now have to prove that the products do not contribute to deforestation and are legal. The companies will also have to have information regarding the farms where the products are grown and check if they comply with EU laws. If companies fail to comply with EU regulations they will be fined. The Commission added that they will also be assessing producer countries for the level of deforestation risk and depending on this benchmarks for companies will be decided. (“Green Deal: EU agrees law to fight global deforestation and forest degradation driven by EU production and consumption,” ec.europa.eu, 06 December 2022)
 
Serbia and Kosovo receive an updated draft from the EU regarding the normalization of ties
On 06 December, EURACTIV reported that the EU sent Serbia and Kosovo a reworked draft regarding the normalization of ties between the two countries. The draft outlines a timeline that the two countries need to follow to reach a final agreement. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani reiterated their support for the EU-led dialogue with Osmani adding: “Kosovo will be submitting its application for EU membership by the end of this year.” This comes as tensions between the two increased when Vučić and Osmani engaged in a verbal spat. (Alexandra Brzozowski “EU redrafts proposal on Serbia-Kosovo ties as Pristina sets sight on membership,” EURACTIV, 06 December 2022)
  
Turkey asks Finland to lift the arms embargo in exchange for NATO membership approval
On 06 December, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that for its approval for NATO membership Finland needs to lift the arms embargo placed on Turkey publicly. The arms embargo was placed on Turkey back in 2019 when Turkey conducted a military operation in Syria against the Kurdish militia. (“Turkey says Finland must end arms embargo to join NATO,” AP News, 06 December 2022)   

Tukey asks Greece to cease militarization of the Aegean Islands 
On 06 December, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu urged Greece to follow international law and cease the militarization of the Aegean Islands. Cavusoglu said: "Either Greece takes a step back and abides by agreements, or we will do what is necessary." This is in reference to Greece’s violation of the demilitarized status of the Islands and the recent military drills conducted by Greece on the Islands. Turkey launched a formal complaint at the UN in July 2021 stating that Greece was violating the Treaties of Lausanne and Paris. Both treaties highlight the demilitarised status of the Aegean Islands. Cavusoglu added that Turkey will be forced to take necessary steps to protect its security if Greece continues its “provocations.” (Faruk Zorlu Türkiye calls on Greece to abide by international law, stop militarizing Aegean islands,” Anadolu Agency, 06 December 2022)

 


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #376 | 06 December 2022, Tuesday

War in Ukraine: Day 285 | SIPRI report finds an increase in 2021 global arms sales

Photo : SIPRI/DW


War in Ukraine: Day 285
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 05 December, Kyiv Regional Military Administration Head, Oleksii Kuleba, stated in Telegram that energy facilities in Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Odesa were attacked by Russian missiles damaging the electricity power infrastructure in Ukraine. Due to the attack 40 per cent of the Kyiv region is facing electricity shut down. According to Shmyhal Ukraine’s power grid was functional despite the missile attacks. The energy providers issued emergency shutdowns to balance the systems and avoid increasing the damage. He added that the restoration process has begun within the affected region.

On 05 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine’s air defence systems destroyed most of the 70 Russian Calibers and Kh-101 missiles that arrived in Ukraine. A few missiles that missed the air defence systems damaged energy facilities in Ukraine, resulting in the death of four people. He thanked his western allies for lending the air defence systems that repelled the attacks and urged them to fight against terrorism together with Ukraine.

On 05 December, Ukrinform reported that Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksiy Danilov had said that the Russian missile strikes not only harms Ukraine but also its neighbouring countries. Danilov’s statement comes after a missile being discovered by Moldova’s border police patrol near the Briceni village, close to Moldova’s border near Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 05 December, Russia’s Defence Ministry said that Ukrainian drones had struck Dyagilevo military air base in the Ryazan region and the Engles air base in the Saratov region resulting in the death of three officers and damage to two aircraft. The drones were intercepted by air defences. Six were found to be injured and explosion of a fuel tanker was observed in the Ryazan region. The attack was the first by Ukraine to reach the Russian mainland. The Defence Ministry discovered that the Ukrainians had used Soviet-era Tu-141 Strizh jet drones.

On 05 December, RT reported on Russian Defence Ministry’s claims on deterring Ukraine’s arms and troop logistics by its missile strikes. Russia struck Ukraine with missiles using strategic bombers to derail their transportation of troops, weapons, and ammunition to the front lines by train. The Defence Ministry said: “All 17 assigned objectives were hit,” talking about their targets of energy, communication, defence facilities and transportation in Ukraine. The missile strike was in retaliation to Ukraine’s drone attack in Dyagilevo and Engles airfield in mainland Russia.

On 05 December, RT reported that Russian military expert Alexey Leonkov confirmed Ukraine’s responsibility for the anti-air missile parts and debris that fell in Moldova’s Briceni village. According to Leonkov, the debris was found to be from S-300 PS/PT anti-air missiles used by Ukraine to intercept Russian high-precision strikes. The anti-air missiles were part of Ukraine’s counter-to-Russian military strike that targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The missile strike was in retaliation to Ukraine’s drone attack in the Saratov and Ryazan regions.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 December, the SIPRI released a report on the performance of the top 100 companies in the arms industry in 2021. It found that Russia to be the prime supplier of raw materials faced a challenge of stagnation in the arms production and because of war the sales increased only by four per cent. For the US, 40 firms formed part of the total 100 and it comprised half the global arms sales, leaving out North America which sales fell by 0.8 per cent. In case of Europe, the ship building industry was observed to have increased sales whereas the aircraft industry had low performance. Comparing Asia and Middle East, the arms sales had a fast pace growth in Middle East with 6.5 per cent and was seconded by China with 6.3 percent. The report identified major challenges for reduction in the arms sales, which were supply chain issues, Ukraine war sanctions, and pandemic.

On 05 December, the US government will hold a virtual meeting with oil and gas companies to have a discussion on assisting Ukrainian energy facilities. The damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure by Russian missile strikes resulted in the convention of the executives and the government. The US Deputy Secretary of Energy, David Turk, said: “As you know Ukrainian energy assets are being aggressively targeted to take advantage of the winter's coldest temperatures and harshest weather conditions. Together, we can help to boost Ukrainian resilience,” in a letter to oil and gas executives. The Department of Energy said that it would ensure energy companies provide a steady and reliable supply to their customers and support foreign partners.

Canada pledged to provide CAD 15 million in funds for demining equipment to Ukraine. The humanitarian assistance includes the detection and clearance of landmines and other explosives that are from the war. Canada also provided bomb suits to protect Ukrainian bomb squads and advanced remote-control demining systems to demine large areas. 
 
On 06 December, the Czech Republic’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Jan Lipavsky, announced the discussion on the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the main topic in the informal Visegrad Group (V4) Foreign Ministers meeting in Bratislava in Slovakia. Following the V4 Prime Ministers' meeting, the member states agreed on joint support for Ukraine. The Visegrad Group consists of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.

On 05 December, the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, said that the US would provide air defence and energy aid to Ukraine. The US promised to help Ukraine protect and reconstruct its civilian infrastructure. The Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy, water and heating system will be countered by the US help to Ukraine, according to Brink.

On 05 December, Lithuania’s Defence Ministry said that it would provide Ukraine with 155-millimetre ammunition for its artillery. Lithuania also commented that it would help Ukraine de-occupy Russian-invaded regions.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 05 December, the UN’s Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner released a report on civilian casualty updates. The total number of Ukrainian civilian deaths was estimated to be 162 and the number of injured was 526. The total number of civilian casualties recorded from 24 February till 04 December was 17, 181, where 6,702 were killed and 10,479 were injured. The recorded civilian casualties resulted from missile strikes, shelling, explosives, and multiple launch rocket systems. According to OHCHR, accurate figures of civilian casualties are yet to be known as the records are delayed in heavy fighting areas such as in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk regions.

References
Mateusz Morawiecki, “Russia carried out another massive attack on civilian facilities and critical infrastructure in Ukraine, carrying a high death toll.,” Twitter, 05 December 2022
NSDC Secretary says missile fallen on Moldova’s territory definitely Russian,” Ukrinform, 05 December 2022
Oleg Nikolenko, “The mass media report that a missile fell on the territory of Moldova after Russia's missile attack on Ukraine.,” Facebook, 05 December 2022
Oleksiy Kuleba, “About the consequences of massive shelling by Russia.,” Telegram, 05 December 2022
Denys Shmyhal, “The terrorist country of Russia tried to implement its criminal plan again - to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold.Telegram, 05 December 2022
When a terrorist destabilizes everyone's life, stopping terror is a joint task - address of the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 05 December 2022
Russian missile strikes disrupt Ukrainian military logistics,” RT, 05 December 2022
Three killed in Ukrainian attacks on airfields in Russia – MOD,” RT, 05 December 2022
Missile wreckage found across Ukrainian border,” RT, 05 December 2022
The Ministry of Defense reported downed drones over Russian military airfields,” Lenta.ru, 06 December 2022
The Russian Defense Ministry announced a massive strike on the infrastructure of Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 05 December 2022
White House to ask oil and gas execs to support Ukraine energy infrastructure,” Reuters, 06 December 2022
Kanishka Singh, “Canada to provide C$15 million for Ukraine demining,” Reuters, 06 December 2022
Ambassador Bridget A. Brink, “As Russia targets heat, water, and electricity for every person in Ukraine,” Twitter, 05 December 2022
Thomas McEnchroe, “Lipavský meeting with Visegrad Group foreign ministers in Bratislava,” english.radio.cz, 05 December 2022
Lithuania Ministry of Defence, “Lithuania is sending 155mm ammunition for Ukrainian artillery.,” Twitter, 05 December 2022
Ukraine: civilian casualty update 5 December 2022,” ohchr.org, 05 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

GREECE
Green Tank provides estimate of electricity produced from renewable energy
On 05 December, Green Tank a Greece based think tank reported that around 47.1 per cent of electricity demand in Greece was fulfilled by renewable energy in the first 10 months of 2022. It added that on 07 October for five hours, Greece’s entire demand for electricity was supplied by renewables which is a first for the country. Hydroelectricity is the major source of renewable energy in Greece with plants producing 20.2 gigawatt-hour for ten months which exceeded the amount of electricity produced by fossil gas and lignite. This sharp increase in renewables contribution is attributed to increased fuel prices and a decrease in overall electricity demand. (Igor Todorović “Greece produces record 47.1% of electricity from renewables so far in 2022,” Balkan Green Energy News, 05 December 2022)   
 
TURKEY
Inflation rates drop to 84.4 per cent after 17-month rise
On 05 December, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported that the inflation rate dropped to 84.4 per cent in November. This is being seen as a sign of economic recovery as Turkey hit a 24-year inflation rate high of 85.51 per cent in October. Consumer month-on-month price inflation increased by 2.88 per cent with food prices increasing by 5.75 per cent and alcoholic drinks prices increasing by 3.19 per cent in November. The Institue projected that in the third quarter of 2022 Turkey’s economy grew by 3.9 per cent with exports stagnating due to a global slowdown. (“Turkey’s inflation dips below 85% after a 17-month surge,” Gulf Today, 05 December 2022) 
 
REGIONAL
Bulgaria to impose countermeasures if Netherlands and Austria veto Schengen bid
On 05 December, Bulgarian Prime Minister Gulub Donev threatened to impose countermeasures if Austria and Netherlands veto Bulgaria’s bid to join the Schengen visa zone. Netherlands and Austria have expressed concerns regarding Bulgaria’s bid for Schengen membership and Austria have even carried out inspections in Bulgaria to address these concerns. Donev highlighted these inspections and similar inspections conducted by the European Commission as evidence of Bulgaria’s eligibility to the Schengen. He added that the views of the Netherlands and Austria are based on “domestic political considerations” not on the Schengen criteria. Donev added that the Dutch refused to participate in the inspections and that their concerns were unconvincing and contrary to the opinions of other members. Calling the Dutch “anti-European”, Donev added that “despite the stated intentions of two countries (the Netherlands and Austria) to impose a veto, Bulgaria has not given up Schengen.” The voting is said to take place in the meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs ministers on 08 December. (“Bulgaria threatens ‘countermeasures’ if Netherlands, Austria block it from Schengen,” The Sofia Globe, 05 December 2022)
 
European Commission to provide EUR 26.3 million Finnish aid to Suomen Energiavarasto Oy 

On 05 December, the European Commission announced that it will be providing support worth EUR 26.3 million to Suomen Energiavarasto Oy (SEVO), a Swedish company. The aid will help SEVO construct and instal an underground hydroelectric pump storage facility by 2025. The new facility will increase the role of renewables in electricity generation. The facility will also help in phasing out electricity generated by gas fire units. The facility will have a storage capacity of 75 megawatts and 530 megawatt-hours. (“State aid: Commission approves €26.3 million Finnish measure to support SEVO in construction of hydroelectric pump storage,” ec.europa.eu, 05 December 2022)
 
Commission presents EU Action Plan on the Western Balkans
On 05 December, the European Commission presented an EU Action Plan on the Western Balkans based on the EU Action Plan on the Central Mediterranean. The plan has 20 operational measures under five pillars which are boosting border management along the routes, fast asylum procedures and support reception capacity, combatting migrant smuggling, increasing readmission cooperation and returns and drawing out a visa policy alignment. The Action plan looks to support measures taken by Western Balkan countries towards migrants. The Western Balkans are the most popular route for migrants to travel to Europe. (“Migration routes: Commission proposes Action Plan for cooperation with Western Balkans to address common challenges,”  ec.europa.eu, 05 December 2022)
 
Finland starts the NATO membership process without final approval from the alliance 
On 05 December, the Finnish government presented the NATO membership bill for the consideration of the parliament. The Government stated that the bill can be considered by the parliament legally despite only 28 out of 30 members ratifying Finalds membership bid. Once the parliament gives its approval, the bill will go to the President for his assent. The Finnish Foreign Minister said that Finald is eligible to take part in all NATO activities except decision-making. The bill after the President’s assent will be deposited with the US if all the members have not ratified Finland’s membership bid. The proposal outlines the effects of NATO membership on the country’s foreign, defence and security policy and the commitments it has to follow once it becomes a member. (“Government proposal on Finland’s accession to NATO submitted to Parliament,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 05 December 2022; “Finnish Parliament to start Nato membership process despite ratification delays,” yle, 05 December 2022)
 
Charles Michel and Slovenia Prime Minister discuss on EU-Western Balkan equation
On 5 December, European Council President Charles Michel met with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Globb in Tirana. Michel said that the Western Balkans Summit is "symbolic" and that the EU's involvement in the Western Balkans has shown remarkable evolution in recent months and that the relationship has progressed in terms of "commitment and involvement." On the issue of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Michel said that the future of the two states was "on the table" and that the European Council has considered the decision on and off the ministerial level. He thanked the Globb for his consistent support to Ukraine in the war and said that the European Council would "clarify" how they would support Ukraine and act in the next coming weeks with winter fast approaching. Additionally, he addressed the issue of energy and the economy and said that it is "central" because it questions the capability of the EU and the overall energy capacity of the world. He said that the EU would "do a lot of work" and aid the energy ministers in tackling the issue. Lastly, he spoke about the migration issue in the region and said that the issue is "sensitive" and a "difficult subject" in democracies, and said that a strong wave of migration is seen throughout Europe and the Western Balkans. Additionally, he said that the mitigation of the migration issue is a priority for the EU and added that further meetings would entail strong involvement of the EU in the same. (“Remarks by President Charles Michel after his meeting with Prime Minister of Slovenia Robert Golob,” consilium.europa.eu, 05 December 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Finland to provide EUR 1.5 million towards helping women and girls in Somalia 
On 05 December, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced an additional EUR 1.5 million to the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) to help girls and women in Somalia. This fund will go towards helping Somalian women and girls get access to sexual and reproductive health services. The donation will focus on helping displaced women and children across Somalia avail of healthcare services. The fund will be used to address pregnancy complications, arrange safe births, and provide victims of gender-based violence with health services, psychological aid and counselling. (“Finland supports sexual and reproductive health services for women and girls in Somalia,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 05 December 2022) 
 
Norway to provide over NOK 325 million in aid to Somalia 
On 05 December, Norwegian Minister of International Development Anne Beathe Tvinnereim announced that Norway will be providing an additional NOK 325 million in aid to Somalia. Tvinnereim on her visit to Somalia pledged NOK 25 million in emergency aid to address the problem of the drought in Somalia. The aid will be provided through the Somalia Humanitarian Fund. Tvinnereim also announced an additional long-term aid of NOK 300 million through the World Bank from 2022 to 2024 towards developmental efforts in Somalia which will include climate change adaptation, good governance and long-term food security. On her visit to Somalia Tvinnereim said: “This visit has allowed us to observe and assess the results of Norway’s efforts to improve security and support regime stabilisation.” Somalia is one of Norway’s partner countries for stabilisation and conflict prevention. (“Norway to provide large boost in aid to Somalia,” regjeringen.no, 05 December 2022)      
 
Germany and India sign mobility and migration agreement
On 05 December, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar signed a mobility and migration agreement which will boost bilateral cooperation in faster visa processing and production of environmentally friendly energy. Baerbock who is visiting India met Jaishankar in Delhi where the two discussed the challenges being faced by both countries in issuing visas and climate change. The Mobility and Migration agreement was then signed by the two parties which would ease the challenges faced while issuing visas and clear the “mountain of applications” for German visas. When it came to climate change Baerbock said that Germany looks forward to collaborating with India and that in 2023 Germany will facilitate emission-free energy production projects worth EUR one billion. With an aim to help India pursue electrification wholly through renewables, Baerbock said Germany will provide EUR 10 billion by 2030 to increase renewable energy production in India. (Johannes Leithäuser “Mobility partnership between Berlin and New Delhi,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 05 December 2022)  

 


05 December 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #375

War in Ukraine: Day 283 & 284 | NASA on Russia's wheat harvest in Ukraine

Amendment to abortion law protested in Malta; PKK members extradited to Turkey by Sweden; Taiwan signs three MOUs with Slovakia to bolster bilateral trade

Photo : NASA/Bloomberg


War in Ukraine: Day 283 & 284
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 03 December, Ukrinform reported on Austria’s Finance Minister Magnus Brunner announcement to provide support to Ukraine of upto EUR 20 million. The fund will be directed to Ukraine Recovery Trust Fund (URTF) in restoring public services especially energy sector. 

04 December, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed on the completion of Ukrainian military training, called “Operation UNIFER” from the Canadian Armed Forces that took place in the UK. It reported that as part of the training the Ukrainians including “construction workers, bankers, accountants, mechanics, firefighters, engineers, chefs,” had learnt the basic skills along with lessons on “Armed conflict, battlefield casualty drills, combat first aid, field craft, marksmanship, explosive threat awareness and recognition, and both urban and trench warfare training.” 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 03 December, Meduza in reference to Financial Times reported on the increase in purchase of old tanker by anonymous buyers which was observed by the UK’s Braemar Shipping Services. They have found that the bought tankers which is 12 to 15 year old were being used to export oil to China, India and Other Asian countries. This is seen as “shadow fleet” as an alternative way around the energy price cap which restricts western shipping companies to help in transit of Russia oil to non-EU countries.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 December, Bloomberg reported on benefit Russia reaped from the stolen wheat from Ukraine. The report found that during the occupation, Russia had taken close to USD one billion worth wheat harvested in Ukraine as per the NASA food security and agriculture program satellite imagery. It said: “Almost 6 million tons of wheat was collected from areas not under Ukrainian control, according to NASA Harvest. About 88% of the winter crops planted in occupied areas were harvested, while unharvested areas were mainly along the front line.” 

On 03 December, ISW a US based think tank has predicted that despite the pressure from Russia to launch an operation from Belarus into Ukraine the probability of Belarusian arms joining the Russian war seem to be low. According to the report: “…ISW has previously assessed that Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to domestic factors that constrain Lukashenko’s willingness to do so.”

On 03 December, Deutsche Welle reported on the agreement between the EU, G7 and Australia over price cap on Russia’s crude oil. While Russia has responded saying “Will not accept,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called it a “weak policy.” Along with the price cap, the EU has also agreed on a scheme to cut down the flow of Petrodollars to target the Russian revenue. This move is seen as a trigger to global shock on oil price as it will ban all the European shipping services to end its oil ferry operation in exporting the Russian oil. The US suggested an alternative to prevent the price shock by bringing an exception to leave out service providers who buy oil below the price cap to export to non-EU countries. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 03 December, Bloomberg reported on Microsoft projection on future cyber threat from Russia. According to Microsoft’s digital threat analysis center has warned its customers for possible Russian cyber-attacks during the winter. It mentioned “Prestige” as the recent ransomware attack by the Russian military intelligence and highlighted the simultaneous cyber attack on Ukrainian and foreign based supply chains. It added: “…foreshadow what may become broadening tactics during the winter ahead.”

On 03 December, in an interview World Bank Vice President Anna Bjerde estimated that Ukraine would need 500 to 600 billion for post-war reconstruction. She recommended for a “Marshall Plan” to bind public and private money to restore Ukraine. Bjerde also expects the drop in GDP to further increase from 35 per cent to 40 per cent due to infrastructure loss, and absence of tax revenues.

On 04 December, UNHR High Commissioner Volker Türk will start his four-day visit to Kyiv Kharkiv, Izyum, Uzhgorod, and other parts of Ukraine. He is expected to meet national and local government authorities to during the visit. According to the UN data 6,557 causalities have been recorded and 10,074 injured.

References
Austria contributing EUR 20M to Ukraine Recovery Trust Fund,” Ukrinform, 03 December 2022
In face of oil price cap, Russia building up "shadow fleet" to continue exports,” Meduza, 03 December 2022
Aine Quinn and Agnieszka de Sousa, “Bloomberg: Russia reaped $1B of wheat in occupied Ukraine,” Bloomberg, 03 December 2022
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to visit Ukraine – media,” Ukrinform, 03 December 2022
Ros Krasny, “Russia Is Boosting Its Cyber Attacks on Ukraine, Allies, Microsoft Says,” Bloomberg, 03 December 2022
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 3,” ISW, 03 December 2022
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Facebook, 04 December 2022
von Jakob Zirm, “Ukraine: “The development of 15 years is erased”,” Die Presse, 03 December 2022
Ukraine updates: G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Bosnia and Herzegovina exported electricity over BAM one billion in 10 months 
On 03 December, Sarajevo Times reported that electricity exports from Bosnia and Herzegovina in the past 10 months amounted to over BAM one million. This is a 56.7 per cent increase from 2021 where it amounted to BAM 952.5 million. Bosnia and Herzegovina imported electricity worth BAM 268 million which is 67.8 per cent more than in 2021. This increase in electricity revenue is largely attributed to high energy prices due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. (“The Export of Electricity from BiH exceeds One Billion BAM,” Sarajevo Times, 03 December 2022)
 
MALTA
Protesters across Valletta against amendment to abortion law
On 04 December, thousands of protesters hit the streets of Valletta voicing their anger on a proposal for amendment to abortion law. The proposal tabled in the parliament speaks about legalising abortion for women whose health and life are at risk. A doctor will determine the risk factor according to the proposal. The proposal also provides protection for the doctors and nurses who carry out the procedure. The protesters are against this proposal and say that the wording of the proposal is vague. Led by pro-life organisations, over 20,000 protesters gathered in Valletta holding placards saying “Zomm l-abort l'barra minn Malta" (Keep abortion out of Malta), "Ipproteġu lil uliedna" (protect our children) and "Jien m'għandix vuċi" (I don't have a voice). Malta’s former President Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca, archbishop Charles Scicluna and Nationalist Party leader Bernard Grech, joined the protestors. The main concern over the proposal is that it will “bring abortion to Malta” and that women will be eligible for abortion for mental health or trival reasons. Abortion in Malta is banned and criminalised. Anyone who undergoes abortion or provides abortion services in Malta can be jailed from 18 months to three years in prison. (“Thousands gather in Valletta to protest abortion law reform,” Times of Malta, 04 December 2022)
 
THE UK
Fusion robots to help in UK’s fusion energy research
On 05 December, GOV.UK, reported on the advancement in UK’s space industry. UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) and the Satellite Applications Catapult have shown the use of remote handling and robot technology in the fusion energy research. The maintaining of in-orbit satellites and energy creation from the fusion is observed as sustainable way for future energy supply and for the smooth functioning of the process in-orbit servicing is an area to be addressed. According to Catapult Robotics Development Lead Jeremy Hadall, the robots is seen as a boon to improve “close-proximity operations,” and open up for commercial collaborations. (“Fusion robots at work in the UK space industry,” Gov.UK, 05 December 2022)

39 Albanian migrant children go missing from Kent 
On 04 December, BBC reported that out of the 197 Albanian children taken in by Kent City Council 39 have gone missing. These children were unaccompanied migrants who came to the UK by crossing the English Channel. The numbers according to Ecpat UK’s head of policy, advocacy and research Laura Durán are “really high” and Ecpat UK fears that they are at risk of exploitation and trafficking. The average age of the missing children is said to be around 18 years. Kent City Council reported that there has been an increase in the number of unaccompanied Albanian children and that "Whilst all unaccompanied asylum-seeking children are vulnerable to exploitation... research and experience evidences that some nationalities are particularly vulnerable and can go missing from local authority care very quickly.” (“Channel crossings: Dozens of Albanian child migrants go missing,” BBC, 04 December 2022)
 
Rail workers union refuse pay rise offer 
On 04 December, The UK’s RMT union refused the four per cent increase in pay offer of the Rail Delivery Group. The Group had put forth an offer of a pay rise of eight per cent over two years to halt further strikes by the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT). The RMT General Secretary Mick Lynch said: "We have rejected this offer as it does not meet any of our criteria for securing a settlement on long-term job security, a decent pay rise and protecting working conditions." The RMT announced that they would be organising strikes in December and January which would hamper travel before and after Christmas. The union has organised many strikes this year over the issue of an increase in payment due to the increased cost-of-living crisis.   (“British rail workers union rejects offer aimed at averting strikes,” Reuters, 05 December 2022)
 
RUSSIA 
2500 dead Caspian seals found in Dagestan
On 04 December, Russian officials reported that 2500 Caspian seals were found dead in Dagestan on the Caspian Sea coast. The first set of carcasses was found on 03 December and was reported by the North Caucasus Territorial Administration of Rosrybolovstvo and the total amount dead was pegged at 650-700 seals. This number increased drastically as more of the coast was explored and in total 2500 seals were found. The reason for the death of all the seals has not yet been determined but according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Sciences, it was due to natural causes due to emissions of natural gas. The ministry said that the death of thousands of seals will not affect their population in the Caspian Sea as they have a population of around 300,000 seals in the region. (“2,500 Caspian seals found dead along Russian coastline,” The Guardian, 05 December 2022; “Thousands of dead Red Book seals were found in Dagestan,” Lenta.ru, 05 December 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Sweden extradites convicted PKK member to Turkey
On 03 December, Swedish authorities extradite PKK member Mahmut Tat to Turkey. Tat is a suspected member of the PKK group and was sentenced to jail for six years and 10 months in jail for the same in Turkey. He then fled to Sweden in 2015 where he applied for asylum but was denied. On 02 December night, Tat was extradited to Turkey where he was presented in front of a court on 03 December. This is a part of Sweden’s contribution to support Turkey in its mission to counter the PKK and in return secure Turkey’s support for NATO membership. ("Sweden extradites suspected PKK terror group member to Turkey,” The Local se, 03 December 2022; "Sweden extradites PKK/KCK terror group member to Türkiye,” Anadolu Agency, 03 December 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL 
Slovakia and Taiwan sign three MOUs to boost trade
On 02 December, Slovakian and Taiwanese officials met in Bratislava where the two parties signed three memorandums of understanding (MOUs). The three MOUs were signed to increase bilateral trade, exchanges between start-ups and collaborations in the semiconductor industry. The meeting was the second session of Taiwanese- Slovak Commission on Economic Cooperation. The two sides also discussed furthering relations in renewable energy, biotechnology and science and space programmes in the future. (“Taiwan, Slovakia sign MOUs on bilateral trade,” Taipei Times, 05 December 2022) 

 

 


03 December 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #374

War in Ukraine: Day 282 | EU agree price cap over Russian seaborne oil

The UK's delegation visit Taiwan; Japan partners with the EU to establish a global hydrogen market; Italy positive in fulfilling all targets to receive the EU's post-pandemic fund

Photo : EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOV


War in Ukraine: Day 282
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 01 December, Ukraine’s President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak reported that 50 Prisoners of War (POW) were returned by Russia. As a part of the exchange, Ukraine returned prisoners held in Olenivka, and soldiers in Mariupol and Azovstal. Yermark added that injured Russian personnel in Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions were also returned. He thanked the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POW and assured the return of all Ukrainians.

Ukraine’s General Staff and Supreme Commander-in-Chief estimated that Ukraine had lost nearly 13,000 soldiers since February. This comes after  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen estimated 100,000 soldiers to have been killed, which was later deleted by the European Commission saying that it was a mistake.

On 02 December, Sumy Regional Military Administration Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said that 76 mortar bombs and shells were launched by Russian forces at the region’s border areas. Zhyvytskyi said that the Seredyna-Buda community was hit the hardest with Russians launching a mortar strike and 22 self-propelled artillery strikes. While no casualties were reported the strikes have caused major damage to infrastructure in the areas. 

On 02 December, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement regarding the threats received by Ukrainian embassies and consulates. Embassies in Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Austria, the consulates general in Naples and Krakow, and the consulate in Brno all received packages containing animal eyes. The packages reportedly were soaked and smelled of blood. The embassy in the USA was delivered a letter containing a photocopy of an article critical of Ukraine. Additionally, the embassy in Kazakhstan received a bomb threat which was proven false and the entrance of the ambassador’s residence in the Vatican was vandalised. Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said that they believe these incidents were pre-planned as all of these incidents happened simultaneously. Kuleba added that this will not stop Ukraine’s diplomatic front. The statement went on to cite the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and has asked foreign governments for increased protection for Ukrainian diplomats abroad.   

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Rosatam and their efforts to help  Russia advance in the field of nuclear technology on the account of Rosatam’s 15th anniversary. Putin outlined how the corporation has been a key factor in Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities and the development of new weapons systems and military equipment. He also praised Rosatams efforts to bring together specialised enterprises and scientific schools to increase nuclear research and development and fortify Russia’s nuclear shield and defence capabilities. Putin acknowledged Rosatams role in Russia achieving nuclear parity in a short time and praised their commitment towards increasing the nuclear capability of Russia in the defence and power sector. 

On 02 December, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that President Vladimir Putin is open to dialogues and peace talks but will not accept the demand for the withdrawal of Russian forces. Peskov said that US President Joe Biden’s condition for peace talks to start is not possible and added that “Without a doubt, the special military operation continues." He added that Putin is open to talks and that Russia prefers “peaceful diplomatic means” to achieve their interests. Peskov said that the US refusal to recognise the newly annexed territories will be a point of contention for talks to start and common ground to be achieved. 

On 02 December, RIA Novosti reported that Russian air defence systems will now be able to effectively detect and destroy missiles launched by Ukraine from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) because of a software update. According to a Russian military commander in the Zaporizhzhia Region, the air defence forces now have a new software update which will help them “detect, track, and destroy” HIMARS missiles. 

On 02 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a telephone conversation  discussed the Ukraine crisis and the Black Sea Grain deal. On the matter of Ukraine, Putin re-explained the motive behind the special military operation and he expressed how the West’s continued supply of military and training of Ukrainian soldiers was prolonging the war. Putin added that the increased military and financial supply to Ukraine is making it more difficult to negotiate with Keiv. He highlighted how targeted missile strikes were abandoned by the Russian forces but recent attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure such as the Crimean bridge have forced Russia to retaliate with targeted strikes. On the Black Sea Grain deal, Putin emphasized the need for an efficient and comprehensive plan for grain exports which would include the removal of barriers against Russia.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 December, EU members agreed on a USD 60 price cap per barrel on Russian seaborne oil with a price adjustment policy to keep the price at five per cent below the market price. This comes after EU members previously failed to come to an agreement on the price cap before the EU embargo on Russian crude goes into effect on 05 December. The price cap will now be tabled in the parliaments of EU member countries before it is fully implemented. This new price cap and the price adjustment mechanism are being introduced to ensure a steady supply of Russian crude after 05 December to prevent a global supply shortage. 
 
On 02 December, the G7 nations and Australia approved the EU USD 60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. The price cap was initiated by the G7 countries to prevent a shortage of Russian oil supply to mitigate a sudden rise in the energy crisis and increased fuel inflation. In a statement, the G7 members added that they are “prepared to review and adjust the maximum price as appropriate,” and make sure middle and low- income countries are not adversely affected. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that this will restrict the “...primary source of revenue for his illegal war in Ukraine while simultaneously preserving the stability of global energy supplies.”  
 
On 02 December, UK Defence Intelligence reported on increasing logistical threat for Russia upon the withdrawal from the West Bank of the Dnipro River. The withdrawal has turned in favour of Ukraine to target down Russia’s logistic nodes and communication lines, forcing Russians to transfer their supplies and labour intensive leading to “further south and east.” 

On 02 December, Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban stressed his stance on objecting the EU plan to give EUR 18 billion to Ukraine in 2023. He added: “We are not in favor of this because we do not want the European Union to become a community of indebted states instead of a community of cooperating member states.” Instead Orban suggested the EU to allocate funds to Ukraine from its budget through bilateral deal. The block has remained for several months, according to the EU, Hungary’s veto is seen as counter to EU’s block on funds over Hungary’s rule of law violation.

On 02 December, Finland Prime Minister Sanna Marin raised concerns over Europe’s need to strengthen the security. She stressed on building the defence capability and the European defence industry. Marin added that to ensure security for Finland it is a condition to maintain bilateral relations with Russia and be close to NATO and not a member.
 
On 02 December, Permanent Representative of Croatia to the OSCE delivered the Joint Statement of NATO members along with Finland and Sweden to the OSCE council. The statement outlined how the OSCE area is in a crisis due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and that NATO condemns Russia’s actions in Ukraine and fully supports Ukraine and its fight for sovereignty. It went on to highlight how these actions violate international law, the UN Charter, the principles of the Helsinki Final Act, and OSCE commitments. The statement outlined how Russia is responsible for the destruction of human life especially those of women and Children in Ukraine. It reiterated the support for the invocation of the Moscow Mechanism and ODIHR monitoring to bring into light abuses of international human rights in Ukraine. The statement expressed concerns regarding Belarus and its unwavering support for Russia and Russian military integration in the North. Finally, the statement called on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine completely and cease all military occupations in the OSCE region.     

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 02 December, oil futures decreased by 1.5 per cent before the OPEC+ meeting on 04 December and the EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude on 05 December. Brent crude futures decreased by USD 1.31 to USD 85.57 per barrel and the Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by USD 1.24 to USD 79.98 per barre. The market reacted with caution on 02 December over the uncertainty regarding the OPEC+ decision which could shock the market on Monday. While OPEC+ is said to retain its target of two million barrels per day, oil prices could dip further if no additional production cuts are made.
 
On 02 December, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine finished its work and the mission came to an end. The Commission said that it has finished its assessment on a “broader temporal, geographical, and thematic framework” and will be submitting a report in March 2023. The Commission said that the extensive damage to civilian and energy infrastructure has resulted in devastating consequences for education, children’s rights and lives. It talked bout how destroyed schools prevent physical access to schools and an online mode while initially feasible has been disrupted due to repeated attacks on civilian infrastructure. Civilian infrastructures are under the protection of international humanitarian law and the commission aims to prepare the report keeping this in mind and would take a victim-centric view for its work.  

References
Another 50 Ukraine defenders returned from Russian captivity,” Ukrinform, 01 December 2022
President's Office says Ukrainian army lost up to 13,000 soldiers since war started,” Ukrinform, 01 December 2022
Seventy-six Russian projectiles fired at Sumy region over past day,” Ukrinform, 02 December 2022
Comment of Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko regarding threats to Ukraine’s embassies and consulates abroad,” mfa.gov.ua, 02 December 2022
Video message on the occasion of the 15th anniversary of Rosatom State Corporation,” kremlin.ru, 02 December 2022
Kremlin rejects Biden’s 'pullout' demand for peace talks,” Tass, 02 December 2022
Kremlin rejects Biden’s 'pullout' demand for peace talks,” Tass, 02 December 2022
Russian troops get upgrade against HIMARS – RIA,” RT, 02 December 2022
Telephone conversation with German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” kremlin.ru, 02 December 2022
EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil,” EURACTIV, 02 December 2022
Latest Defence Intelligence updatev,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 02 December 2022
Orban says Hungary will stick to veto of EU-Ukraine aid plan,” AP News, 02 December 2022
Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US,” The Guardian, 02 December 2022
G-7 joins EU on $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil,” AP News, 02 December 2022
#OSCEMC2022: NATO Joint Statement,” osce.usmission.gov, 02 December 2022
Oil dips 1.5% ahead of OPEC+ meeting, EU Russian oil ban,” Reuters, 03 December 2022
Statement at the end of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine’s visit to Kyiv - 2 December 2022,” 02 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

ITALY
Government optimistic on EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund
On 02 December, Italy’s government announced that it is confident in finishing the 55 targets set for the latter half of 2022 to gain EUR 19 billion from its EU post-pandemic recovery fund. Italy has already received EUR 67 billion out of EUR 200 billion from the EU fund. Some Italian Ministers warned that it would be tough to fulfil all 55 targets of reforms and deadlines. However, the government believes that it can achieve all the targets by 2022 and can submit a request to the EU for its third payment from the post-pandemic recovery fund. Italy’s government has already allocated EUR 12 billion for extra costs incurred by the construction firms working on public projects. (“Italy says will hit all 2022 targets for EU post-pandemic funds,” Reuters, 02 December 2022)

REGIONAL
Germany seeks uniform EU debt rules reform
On 02 December, following the EU Finance Ministers conference, Germany’s government leaked the information on the EU debt rules reforms. Germany was pessimistic about debt rule reforms. However, the other countries believe that there would be a change by March 2023. The European Commission proposed custom debt rules that suited individual countries. Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Linder opposed the proposal and pushed for uniform rules across the EU. The ideas that were presented in the Commission have been rejected by a few countries resulting in undecided debt rule reform. (“Germany sceptical of swift EU debt reform agreement - sources,” Reuters, 02 December 2022)

ENERGY
The Netherlands receives the JTF to achieve its climate neutrality goal
On 02 December, The European Commission provided a Just Transition Fund of EUR 623 million to the Netherlands under the Dutch Territorial Just Transition Plan to help with the green transition. The Just Transition Fund (JTF) will support the Netherlands to change from a fossil fuel-dependent economy to a climate-neutral one. The fund aims at phasing out fossil fuels from industries and transitioning to green energy such as hydrogen. The JTF will be invested in clean and green energy technologies for the chemical and steel manufacturing industries. Renewable hydrogen will be used to produce electricity for industrial purposes. The Fund also looks to establish efficient energy usage in businesses and households to achieve climate neutrality. An increase in labourers and workers is also invested through the fund. (“EU Cohesion Policy: €623 million for a just transition to climate neutrality in the Netherlands,” ec.europa.eu, 02 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Japan and the EU plan to create a global hydrogen market
On 02 December, the EU and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation in Tokyo to create and develop a global hydrogen market. To improve hydrogen technology, and innovate sustainable and cheap production, Japan and the EU have agreed to cooperate to establish an international hydrogen market that produces, trades, and distributes the use of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen energy. Japan and the EU have pledged to become climate neutral by 2050. According to the EU-Japan Green Alliance of 2021, the green transition and global energy security rely on the usage of hydrogen as fuel. The Alliance also focuses on Japan and the EU cooperating to establish a global green energy market. (“EU and Japan step up cooperation on hydrogen,” ec.europa.eu, 02 December 2022)

President Xi to opens Chinese markets for the EU businesses
On 01 December, China’s President, Xi Jinping, assured trade relations with the EU following his meeting with the European Council President Charles Michel. He said: “China expects the EU to ... share China's supersize market opportunities,” As the EU are growing wary of the US trade rivalry, Xi proposed for the EU’s companies to have trade relations with China and jointly oppose the use of trade and technology as a tool for politics and as a weapon. He expressed his desire for fair and transparent trade relations between the two countries. The frayed transatlantic relations were caused by US President Joe Biden introducing the Inflation Reduction Act, which subsidized energy bills for businesses. Xi welcomed the EU’s participation in trade relations with China. (Stuart Lau, “Seizing on EU tensions with US, Xi tells Europe to keep investing in China,” POLITICO, 01 December 2022)

The UK delegation visit to Taiwan angers China
On 02 December, the UK MP delegation visiting Taiwan signed a defence cooperation with it. Foreign Affairs Committee chair Alicia Kearns met with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to discuss maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The UK is aiming to establish its foreign policy towards Taiwan following Brexit. Kearns said: “We talked about the joint cyber threats that we all face from different adversaries, we discussed disinformation and of course, we discussed traditional military conflict.” The UK promised to support Taiwan if China attacked and promoted deterrence diplomacy. Taiwan already receives the UK’s help in developing and building submarines domestically. China, however, condemned the UK’s MPs' visit to Taiwan as it had violated its “One China Policy”. It said that it would retaliate if China’s interests are undermined by the UK. (“Taiwan: UK lawmakers talk defense cooperation during visit,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2022)

 


02 December 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #373

War in Ukraine: Day 281

Photo : Guardian Graphic


War in Ukraine: Day 281
By Padmashree and Pranav

War on the Ground 
On 01 December, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Defence Ministry reported on the movement of Russian troops from the Rostov and Belgorod regions to Kherson via Crimea. The move was to replenish the Russian military strength in the Kherson region. According to GUR, The Russian forces regrouped in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions following the de-occupation of the Dnieper river’s right bank. It stated that the Russians were not building an offensive group in Belarus following rigorous combat training. However, the ministry is cautious of Russia attacking from Belarus or Kharkiv direction in the future.

On 01 December, Ukraine, Sweden, and Denmark’s Foreign Ministers met in Buchares. They discussed on first, Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba, Sweden’s Tobias Billstrom and Denmark’s Jeppe Kofod discussed strengthening their support for Ukraine in the war by increasing and toughening their sanctions against Russia. They were looking into the next sanction package against Russia. Second, increasing the pace of Ukraine’s EU accession.

On 01 December, Ukraine pushed for the EU to introduce new sanctions against Russia that would focus on Russia’s missile industry following its attack on Russia’s electricity grids. The next set of sanctions would target Russia’s missile manufacturing industry to stop Russia from damaging Ukraine’s energy facilities further. Kuleba met the EU’s High Representative of Foreign Affairs and Security Policy at the Organization of Security Co-operation in Europe. Both agreed to extend the EU’s support to Ukraine till the war’s end.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 01 December, RT reported on the Switzerland Economic Ministry report on the value of frozen assets of the Russians. In the announcement it stated that USD 7.94 billion of Russian assets remained frozen as of 25 November which amounted to only a fraction in Switzerland. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO): “The frozen amounts can increase if, for example, new persons are added to the list or if new assets are identified.” On the same, RT reported that close to USD 300 billion reserves remain frozen in the international, but the European Commission has no record on the assets frozen by the EU member states or the amount of liquid assets held in cash. 

On 01 December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that conflict between two nuclear states gives a high possibility for a nuclear war. He said: “Аny war between nuclear powers is unacceptable. Еven if someone decides to start it using conventional means, there will be a huge risk of it escalating into a nuclear one.” Lavrov reiterated Russia’s nuclear doctrine on the use of WMD’s only in response to a nuclear strike from the enemy.

On 01 December, in the OSCE meeting Russian Permanent Representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich said that Russia was urged to start the special military operation to respond to the threats faced by the Russians and Ukrainians in the border. He also criticized OSCE for not being effective in stopping the violence in Donbass.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 December, China’s President Xi Jinping during his meeting with the EU Council President Charles     Michel on Ukraine war called out for resolving the crisis through “political means” and with a interest of Europe and countries in Eurasia. Whereas Michel was reported to stressed Xi to make use the UNSC vote to end Russia’s occupation in Ukraine.

On 01 December, US president Joe Biden expressed his willingness to “speak with Mr. Putin” to initiate a dialogue. Biden suggested the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine as one way to end the war.
Germany’s Federal Government released a statement on the list of military aid to Ukraine given so far. It includes unmanned surface vessels, border protection vehicles, three BEAVER bridge-laying tanks, and eight unmanned surface vessels, 12 border protection vehicles, spare parts for Mi-24 helicopters, 28 anti-drone sensors and jammers, 28 anti-drone sensors and jammers in partnership with the Netherlands. The total export of military goods as of 28 November sum to EUR 1,933,456,163.

The Global Fallouts: Implications of the War in Ukraine 
On 01 December, China’s President, Xi Jinping, discussed ways to end the war in Ukraine with the European Council President Charles Michel. Both agreed to stop Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, from using nuclear weapons.  Xi and Michel want to avoid using nuclear weapons and the escalation of the war. Michel and XI agreed to work together to urge Putin to respect the UN charter and Ukraine’s sovereignty. 

On 01 November, the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, announced that humanitarian assistance of USD 5.7 billion was requested for Ukraine in 2023 at the Global Humanitarian Overview report 2023 launch in Geneva. USD 51.5 billion in funds were requested as total aid to people in desperate need around the world in 2023. The Covid pandemic, climate change and the war in Ukraine were held responsible for the UN requesting USD 51.5 billion in aid to help the needy during emergencies.
 

References
"Today there are no signs of the creation of a powerful strike group on the territory of Belarus" - Skibitsky,” gur.gov.ua, 01 December 2022
Kuleba, Swedish, Danish foreign ministers discuss support for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia,” Ukrinform, 01 December 2022
Ukraine Urges EU to Sanction Russia’s Missile Industry,” Kyiv Post, 01 November 2022
Switzerland reveals value of frozen Russian assets,” RT, 01 December 2022
EU has no legal way to seize Russian assets – officials,” RT, 01 December 2022
Russia warns of ‘huge’ risks of sliding into nuclear war,” RT, 01 December 2022
Russia’s Ukraine operation came in response to OSCE’s inability to end bloodshed — envoy,” TASS, 01 December 2022
Ukraine updates: China's Xi urges peace efforts,” DW, 01 December 2022
Military support for Ukraine,” bundesregierung.de, 01 December 2022

Xi Urges Calming Crisis in Ukraine During Talks With Michel,” Bloomberg, 01 December 2022
UN appeals for record $51.5 billion to help 230 million on the brink in 2023,” news.un.org, 01 December 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
 

HUNGARY
Government accused of misusing citizen’s data for election campaign
On 01 December, Human Rights Watch released a report which accused the Hungarian Prime Minister and his party Fidesz of misusing citizens’ data for election purposes. The report outlines how Fidesz used data from Covid-19 vaccination registration, tax benefits applications and association membership registrations to distribute the party’s campaign messages before April 2022 elections. The report further goes on to highlight how this violates privacy rights and calls such moves a “betrayal of trust and an abuse of power.” (“Orbán used Hungarians’ COVID data to boost election campaign, report says,” Politico, 01 November 2022)

LATVIA
Parliament approves the creation of the Ministry of Climate and Energy
On 01 December, the legislation proposing the creation of the Ministry of Climate and Energy and the appointment of deputy ministers was passed by the Saeima. The Law on State Administration Structure Law was passed with 52 votes who also supported the creation of the new Ministry. 36 deputies voted against the Law and 45 were against the creation of the new Ministry. The new legislation did not receive the support of the Legal Affairs Committee which is responsible for the approval of the draft law. The Saeima debated if the law could be voted on if it was rejected where former Saeima Speaker Inara Mūrniece said that it can be voted on despite the rejection as the Saeima’s prior support for the bill overruled the rejection by the committee. (“New ministerial office creation approved by Saeima,” eng.lsm.lv, 01 December 2022)

REGIONAL
EU introduces revised policies to reduce packaging waste
On 30 November, the European Commission put forth revised rules to decrease packaging waste. The revised rules propose to make packaging reusable and fully recyclable by 2023. It also proposes banning certain types of single-use packaging for beverages, food, fresh fruits and vegetables and also extends this ban to small packaging for hygiene products in hotels. The European Commission executive vice president Frans Timmermans said that “The way goods are packaged can and should be done a lot better,” and added that overpackaging by hotels and restaurants is causing damage to the environment. Some of the newly revised rules include precise labelling of reusable packaging, compulsory return programmes for plastic bottles and aluminium cans and new required rates of recycled material in new plastic packaging. The Commission looks to decrease packaging waste by 15 per cent by 2040 in each EU member country based on population. (“Reuse and recycle: EU proposes revised rules to limit packaging waste,” Euronews, 30 November 2022)

Lithuania requests funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility
On 01 November, the Lithuanian Finance Ministry reported that it has submitted a formal request for funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility to the European Commission. This fund will help Lithuania to go ahead with its recovery and resilience plan titled New Generation Lithuania. The Ministry has requested approximately EUR 565 million for the implementation of the plan. Finance Minister Gintare Skaiste said that this is a significant step and added that they are open to amending the plan to extend a proposal towards the development of renewable energy. Lithuania is said to be eligible for loans up to EUR three billion and grants worth EUR 2.225 billion from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. (“Lithuania submits EC request for EUR 565 min RRF payout,” Delfi, 01 December 2022)

Supply of gas begins to Moldova through Greece-Bulgaria connect
On 01 December, the Greece-Bulgaria natural gas interconnector (ICGB) transmission operator announced that it had started transportation of gas to Moldova. The ICGB-which transports gas to Bulgaria from Azerbaijan through Greece- will now transport 80 per cent of its total capacity to the region but has not specified the amount that will be delivered to Moldova. Moldova and Bulgaria in November had signed an agreement to help Moldova reduce its dependency on Russian gas and help secure energy supply in Southeast Europe via the ICGB. (“Greece-Bulgaria pipeline starts carrying natural gas to Moldova,” SeeNews, 01 December 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade agreement green signalled by Germany
On 01 December, the German parliament approved the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement which is the free-trade pact between the EU and Canada. The agreement was signed in 2016 but had to be approved by the parliaments of all 27 members to fully come into force. 559 German lawmakers voted for the agreement and 110 against the agreement. The vote was delayed due to a pending court case regarding the agreement at Germany’s apex court which rejected all the concerns and gave a clean chit to the Agreement back in March. Out of 27 member countries, only 16 EU members have approved the free trade agreement between Canada and the EU and 11 have yet to approve it. (“German parliament votes to approve EU-Canada trade pact,” AP News, 01 November 2022)

Macron meets Biden to discuss the clash over Inflation Reduction and Chips Act
On 01 December, French President Emmanuel Macron met with US President Joe Biden where the two talked about global security, nuclear deterrence, disarmament, economy, trade, supply chain, energy, climate and much more. The two reportedly talked about the US Inflation Reduction Act 2022 which has been a major point of contention recently between Europe and the US. Macron before meeting Biden on 30 December expressed his concern about the Act and called for a “synchronised” effort to solve the differences. Biden then expressed willingness to work with the French and other European officials to address their concerns and the “glitches” in the Act. Biden added: “it was never intended to exclude folks who are cooperating with us.” The two leaders also agreed to increase diplomatic, developmental, and regional engagement in the Indo-Pacific to counter Chinese influence in the region. Biden and Macron also reaffirmed their support for the protection of human rights and the fight against climate change. When it came to defence, Macron and Biden discussed collective security through NATO and ways the US can help Europe increase its defence capabilities. (“Joint Statement Following the Meeting Between President Biden and President Macron,” whitehouse.gov, 01 November 2022 and Biden Says He Is Willing to Talk to Putin About Ukraine, With Conditions,” The New York Times, 01 December 2022) 


23 November 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #365

War in Ukraine: Day 272 | Novorssiysk port threat to challenge Russian Black Sea Coast says UK

Defence Cooperation between Norway, Sweden and Finland; Budget for European Space Agency increased; Italy's Prime Minister releases the new budget

Photo : American Journal of Transportation


War in Ukraine: Day 272
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 22 November, Ukraine’s Economy Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister, Yulia Svyridenko, announced sanctions on 3000 Russians linked to its military industry at the Interdepartmental Working Group (IWG) meeting on the State Sanctions Policy. The sanctions are placed on 3000 individuals and legal entities of the Russian military sector and its suppliers. The sanctions would have to be approved by the National Security and Defence Council and Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to be implemented. On 19 October, Ukraine sanctioned 2,507 individuals and 1,374 legal entities, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, founder of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and other Russian oligarchs.  

On 22 November, Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Herman Galushchenko, met virtually with France’s Energy Transition Minister, Agnes Panier-Runachet. Galushchenko thanked Panier-Runachet for France’s humanitarian aid by supplying 73 tons of materials and equipment to Ukraine’s energy sector. France pledged to help Ukraine with its energy restoration following Russia’s shelling of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructures. Galushchenko and Panier-Runachet emphasized the need to demilitarize and de-occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and IAEA’s monitoring mission. Both Energy Ministers agreed on sending representatives from energy companies from France to provide operational assistance to Ukraine’s energy sector. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 22 November, TASS reported on Gazprom’s comments holding Europe responsible for destabilizing the global LNG market. The European energy demand also led suppliers to redirect LNG export to Europe, eroding Asia of its LNG supply. Gazprom also criticized the US for failing to increase shale gas production during the 2022 energy crisis, missing a favourable market situation.

On 21 November, Russia’s embassy in Washington stated that the US has been enabling neo-Nazis in Ukraine following the US Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, Beth Van Schaack’s response to the video of the execution of Russian prisoners of war by the Ukrainian troops. Van Schaack said: “when we’re looking at the sheer scale of criminality exhibited by Russian forces, it’s enormous compared to the allegations that we have seen against Ukrainian forces.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 22 November, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, announced in her tweet that the Commission would allocate EUR 2.5 billion to Ukraine for repairs and fast recovery from the Russian shelling. The funds are also provided for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war. The Commission has pledged EUR 18 billion to be provided to Ukraine for 2023, with the funds distributed regularly.

On 22 November, the UK’s Defence Ministry in its intelligence update reported that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is concerned about its amphibious landing ship flotilla following an attack on an oil terminal in Novorssiysk port, near the fleet’s base. The fleet is responsible for supplying materials and resources to Russian soldiers in Crimea since the Kerch Bridge was damaged. The attack on the Novorssiyk port will undermine Russia’s already declining maritime influence in the Black Sea. 

On 21 November, Reuters reported that the US army had increased its pace in acquiring weapons following the depletion of arms by supplying them to Ukraine. The defence contract backlogs are looked into quickly to restock the US weaponry. The US had provided Ukraine with weapons worth USD 17.9 billion since the start of the war on 24 February. The US Army has spent USD 2.6 billion to replenish the US arms supply by using the special Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows quick arms transfer without the consent of Congress in times of emergency. Lockheed Martin group received USD 477 million contract to restock the US weaponry.

On 21 November, Telegraph.co.uk the UK provided Ukraine with its advanced model of the laser-guided Brimstone missile. The Royal Air Force supplied Brimstone 2 missile to the Ukrainian air force to counterattack Russian troops. The new Brimstone missiles exceed the target range better than the previous model. The Brimstone 2 costs around GBP 175 hundred and has the capability to hit moving vehicles. It can also select a particular target that can be programmed into the equipment. It uses laser technology to hit the target successfully.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 22 November, in his address at a plenary session of the State Duma, Cuba’s President, Miguel Diaz-Canel, condemned the West’s sanctions against Russia. During his visit to Moscow, Diaz-Canel said that the US and NATO’s aggressive policies were responsible for the war in Ukraine. He condemned the role of sanctions in escalating the Ukrainian war and said that he favoured the negotiated solution to the war.

On 22 November, Japan’s government approved extending Emergency Grant Aid of USD 2.57 million to help Ukraine's electrical needs through winter. The aid will be implemented through the Office of the UNHCR. Generators and solar lanterns will be provided to Ukraine through aid.
 

References
FOR INVOLVEMENT IN THE MURDERS OF UKRAINIANS: NEW SANCTIONS HAVE BEEN PREPARED AGAINST 3,000 MEMBERS OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY INDUSTRY,” me.gov.ua, 22 November 2022
Herman Galushchenko and the Minister of Energy Transition of France Agnes Panier-Runache discussed the needs of the energy sector of Ukraine and the situation at the NPP,” kmu.gov.ua, 22 November 2022
Europe destabilized global LNG market — Gazprom,” TASS, 22 November 2022
Moscow condemns US reaction to execution of Russian POWs,” RT, 22 November 2022
Ursula von der Leyen, “The @EU_Commission is disbursing a further €2.5 billion for Ukraine.,” Twitter, 22 November 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 22 November 2022,” Twitter, 22 November 2022
Mike Stone, “U.S. Army's weapons contract reviews accelerate to replace Ukraine aid,” Reuters, 22 November 2022
Dominic Nicholls, “Britain’s Brimstone missiles primed to make Russian soldiers' lives hell,” Telegraph.co.uk, 21 November 2022
Cuba condemns Western sanctions against Russia, says president,” TASS, 22 November 2022
Emergency Grant Aid for winterization assistance in Ukraine,” mofa.go.jp, 22 November 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

ITALY
Meloni government introduces EUR 35 million spending cuts and tax raises in new budget 
On 22 November, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signed the new budget which entails a EUR 35 billion spending plan and fiscal policies that intend to “...avoid a collision course with Brussels.” Meloni said that the increased spending plan  would encourage a faster recovery in the current quarter and the first quarter of the next year. The proposed budget will now be scrutinised by the Parliament who has to approve it before January 2023. With an extension of the single tax rate of 15 per cent from an annual income of EUR 65,000 to EUR 85,000 and cutting VAT on necessities by half, she has also prioritised the capping of increasing energy prices and providing a “citizen’s income” poverty relief scheme as part of the plans. Meloni said: "I consider it a courageous and coherent budget, courageous in the sense that it bets on the future." The opposition has criticised the budget for its inadequacy to combat inflation and added that the tax cuts will hit the poor the hardest calling it “inhuman.” (“Italy PM Meloni's new budget proposal more EU-friendly than expected,” Euronews, 22 November 2022; “Italy's Meloni hails "courageous" budget, opposition plans protests,” Reuters, 22 November 2023)
 
REGIONAL
European Parliament introduces new policies for infrastructure protection
On 22 November, the European Parliament passed new policies addressing essential infrastructure protection. It was agreed by the European Council to increase the protection of essential infrastructure. The policy includes cross-border communication, new national resilience strategies and increased transparency between critical actors and national authorities. It will be applicable to 11 essential sectors such as energy, transport, banking, financial market infrastructure, digital infrastructure, drinking water and wastewater, food, health, public administration, and space. (“MEPs approve new rules to protect essential infrastructure,” europarl.europa.eu, 22 November 2022)
 
European parliament decision to increase funds for ESA raises concern
On 22 November, the European Parliament increased funding for space by 25 per cent over the next three years. The European Space Agency (ESA) submitted a request to increase its budget from EUR 14.5 billion to EUR 18.5 billion for 2023-2025. This request was made to keep Europe in the Space sector amid increasing investments by the US and China. Currently, France, Germany and the UK launching small launchers have voiced complaints about the expensive materials acquired by the ESA to build small launchers. The increase in funding will ensure that the materials are acquired at a sustainable price and improve the scope of space technology in Europe. (“Europe ministers tackle sharp increase in space funding,” Reuters, 23 November 2022)
 
Finland, Norway and Sweden sign agreement to increase defence cooperation
On 22 November, the Defence Ministers of Finland, Norway and Sweden signed a trilateral defence cooperation agreement. This new trilateral Statement of Intent (SOI) aims to increase defence cooperation between the three countries and boost operations planning in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The SOI supports other agreements between Nordic countries such as the Nordic defence cooperation (NORDEFCO). The agreement outlines four points of cooperation which are, first conducting discussions and exercises based on common security concerns and national requirements. Second, discuss national operations plans between Finland, Norway and Sweden in common areas of concern. Third, undertake common operations planning in areas of mutual interest and fourth hold combined or coordinated military operations. (“Defence Ministers of Finland, Norway and Sweden signed an updated trilateral Statement of Intent,” defmin.fi, 22 November 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
German to withdraw troops part of the MINUSMA mission from Mali
On 22 November, Germany announced that it will be withdrawing troops stationed in Mali as a part of the MINUSMA mission. German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said the government will ask the parliament to extend German troops’ presence in Mali till May 2024 to “..bring this mission to a structured end after 10 years.” Germany has been a part of the MINUSMA mission since 2013 and has deployed 1,400 troops to Mali as part of the mission. Germany is the next to announce its withdrawal after the UK and Ivory Coast as tensions rise between the UN and Mali’s military leaders. (“Germany to withdraw troops from UN Mali mission by May 2024,” Al Jazeera, 22 November 2022)


22 November 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #364

UK’s new push to promote economic growth and stability: Three Takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 271

The EU unsure of Hungary's Rule of Law status; The EU focus on Paris Agreement in COP27; Switzerland wants to lead in global digital governance at the Francophonie summit

Photo : JESSICA TAYLOR/UK PARLIAMENT


EM Comment
By Madhura S Mahesh

UK’s new push to promote economic growth and stability: Three Takeaways
On 17 November, the UK Treasury Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveiled the highly anticipated Autumn Budget. Following the controversial UK Growth Plan, which led to the fall of the Pound to its lowest in decades and subsequently the resignation of former Prime Minister Liz Truss, this Autumn Budget was closely watched by everyone worldwide.
 
According to Hunt, the Autumn Statement 2022 is a reversal of the policies outlined in the UK Growth Plan. It looks to promote stability, growth, and public services of the UK economy and society. The statement outlines policies to reduce the national debt, support the Bank of England in controlling inflation and restore trust in businesses to invest more in the UK. The Autumn Statement outlines the goal of the government to achieve its debt and spending targets in five years compared to the current target of three years.
 
After the announcement, the market reacted positively with no major shocks or uncertainties. While there was a fluctuation where the UK government bonds weakened, and the Pound fell by 1.1 per cent against the US Dollar (around USD 1.18), investors have praised the budget. A portfolio manager at Union Bancaire Privée Mohammed Kazmi said: “The big rally in the run-up and a relatively muted reaction today suggests this government has restored UK credibility in the eyes of the market.”
 
This analysis trace three takeaways from the latest statement
1. Difference between the UK Growth Plan and the Autumn Statement 2022
 When the UK Growth Plan was introduced, it talked about increased spending and many unexplained tax cuts, which projected a rise in national debt and projected an uncertain future for the UK economy. Before the Statement was released, it was expected to address the fallouts of the Growth Plan and address the major concerns plaguing the UK economy. Jeremy Hunt said that if the government hopes to achieve all the targets and prioritize stability, growth, and public services, it needed to reverse the policies outlined in the Growth Plan. This was seen in the very nature of the budget, which was outlined with increasing taxes, freezing thresholds, focusing on vulnerable communities, and cutting public spending to a large extent. The Growth Plan projected an increase of USD 72 billion in borrowings, whereas the Autumn Statement proposes an additional GBP 55 billion in tax rises and spending cuts reducing the current national debt amid growing inflation rates. It looked at increasing public spending to “boost the growth of the UK economy.” On the other hand, Autumn Statement has cut public spending except for increasing the budget of the NHS by GBP 3.3 billion per year and the spending on schools by GBP 2.3 billion per year for the next two years.
 
2. The OBR forecasts a grime future for the UK economy
The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a fiscal watchdog which analyses the UK public finances and UK. It prepares two five-year forecasts for the economy and public finances annually which are presented alongside the November Budget Statement and Spring Statement.
 
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on the UK economy alongside the Autumn Statement predicted a grim future for the economy. The OBR proclaimed that the economy is in danger of recession due to the falling output in Q3 2022 by 2.1 per cent total and the increase in demand for energy and cost of living over the winter. The OBR projects the inflation rates to hit 11.1 per cent in the last quarter of 2022 compared to the 8.7 per cent projected in March 2022, which will be a 41-year high. For 2023, the OBR expects the inflation to spill over and reduce to 3.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2023 and the GDP to grow by -1.4 per cent. The OBR also predicts that in the next two years, household income will fall to its lowest seen in generations and by 2024, the unemployment rate to hit 4.9 per cent. The OBR projects that the potential recession will hit the economy in 2023-2024 after which the economy will emerge from the recession in 2025.
 
3. Increased burden on the public
The Autumn Statement introduces a series of policies that look at raising taxes, both individual and corporate. The budget is said to bring in GBP 55 billion in tax increases and cuts in public spending. The controversial 45 per cent additional rate of income tax paid on earnings over GBP 150,000, which was slashed in the Growth Plan, has now been revised. The income level has now reduced to GBP 125,140 from GBP 150,000, which brings in more people into the tax bracket. The Statement also proposes a freeze in income tax personal allowance, higher rate thresholds, main National Insurance, and inheritance tax thresholds for two more years till April 2028. The Autumn Statement provides the local councils in England to increase council tax up to five per cent a year from the current three per cent without a local vote. With the OBR projecting increased inflation rates and a price hike, the public, especially the middle class, will be bearing the brunt of this Autumn Budget. While the Autumn Statement proposes an increase in the minimum wage for people over 23 years to GBP 10.42 per hour from GBP 9.50 from April 2023 and also an increase in State pension and benefits to the disabled by 10.1 per cent in line with inflation for the next two years it is predicted that the public will experience a tough time with the increase in the overall cost of living. The government will be increasing the price cap on energy for a year after April 2023 but has reduced the amount from GBP 3,000 annually to GBP 2500. The Autumn Statement also includes a new 45 per cent tax on electricity generation companies and increased the windfall tax on oil profits from 25 per cent to 35 per cent till March 2028. This will lead the companies to introduce measures that will inevitably shift some of the burdens to the consumers and keep the energy prices high. The Statement also includes policies applicable from 2024 onwards, such as the new road tax to be paid by electric cars, vans, and motorcycles which will keep the pressure on household income. 
 
To conclude, the Autumn Statement 2022 focused on stabilizing the economy before the recession hits the UK to mitigate the extent of damage to the UK economy. With the introduction of tax rises and spending cuts, the markets have reacted positively to the statement. It remains to be seen how the government responds to public discontentment on tax increases and tackles the projected regression of the economy.


War in Ukraine: Day 271
By Sandeep Ganesh

War on the Ground
On 21 November, The Operational information of the Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on deterring the Russian attacks in Bakhmut, Bilogorivka, Kurdyumivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, Pidhorodne, Spirne, Stelmakhivka and Yakovlivka settlements of the Donetsk region. Two missile strikes were launched in more than 60 attacks from rocket salvo systems. The Ukraine defence forces had struck Russia six times, three in the areas where the occupiers are concentrated and three in the positions of his anti-aircraft missile systems, units of missile troops and artillery of the defence forces hit two control points, an ammunition warehouse, five areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and two other important Russia’s objects. 

On 21 November, The Ministry of Reintegration stated that the flow of humanitarian goods to the Kherson region continues. Kherson region has received hygiene kits, blankets, drinking water, sets of children’s clothes and generators, and more than 80 tons of aid till now from the international. Ukrainian police and prosecutors identified four places in Kherson where they suspect Russian forces tortured people before the troops abandoned the city. The findings are based on documents signed by the Russian forces that occupied Kherson soon after invading Ukraine in February till pulling out this month. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 November, Russian Aerospace Forces received a batch of Su-30SM2 and Yak-130 combat training aircraft. According to the Cabinet Ministers, another batch will be handed over before the end of 2022. The Irkutsk Aviation Plant of the United Aircraft Corporation has been manufactured and handed over to the Russian Ministry of Defence. In February it was reported that Su-30MS2 fighters would be able to control guided unmanned aerial vehicles, in January it became known that the Baltic Fleet’s mixed naval aviation regiment received four Su-30SM2 fighters. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 21 November, in the NATO Parliamentary assembly held in Madrid, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced the deployment of Spanish police in Ukraine to help in the investigation of war crimes. The two countries have established the terms and of cooperation and specified the areas of deployment. In the investigation Spanish officers will work along Ukrainian investigators to collect evidence to prove Russia’s involvement in war crimes.

On 21 November, in an interview Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto stated government’s request to the parliament to approve a new law on military and civilian supplies to Ukraine throughout 2023. Through the new law the government can send aid without the parliament’s authorisation. The defence minister proposed to renew till the end of 2023.

On 21 November, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, in a meet with the Udmurt Republic, Head Aleksandr Brechalov in Minsk flagged the missile strike in Poland as a false. He said that Belarus and Russia will hold strong against the pressure from the ‘West,’ military and economically.

On 21 November, TRTWorld reported that Europe had stockpiled diesel ahead of February 2023 ban. Russia is still Europe's largest supplier despite the EU reducing its reliance on Russian fuel by 50 per cent following the Ukraine war. The EU will ban Russian oil product imports on 05 February, followed by a ban on Russian crude taking effect in December. Although Europe's reliance on the Russian fuel has fallen from to 50 per cent before invasion, Russia is still the continent's largest diesel supplier. 

On 21 November, Norway signed an agreement to assist Ukraine with gas procurement. Norwegian Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum as signed an agreement to provide funding of NOK two billion to enable Ukraine to purchase natural gas during the coming winter. The funding will be channelled through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This is in bid to stop Russia’s leverage of energy which it has been using on the rest of Europe. This allocation of NOK 2 billion earmarked for gas procurement is part of the NOK 10 billion aid announced by the Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store in July. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 November, RT reported that China’s General Administration of Customs reported that Russian shipments of gas and oil grew drastically over January-October of this year compared to the same period in 2021. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries jumped by 32 per cent in annual terms, to 4.98 million tons. The increase was 157 per cent and exceeded USD 5.3 billion. Russia is currently China’s fourth-largest LNG supplier after Australia, Qatar, and Malaysia. The value of pipeline gas flow from Russia in January-October 2022 soared by 182 per cent compared to the same period in 2021, to USD 3.1 billion. Oil imports from Russia over this period, rising by also surged about 9.5 per cent to 71.97 million tons.

References
Operational information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 06:00 on 11/21/2022 regarding the Russian invasion,” kmu.gov.ua, 21 November 
Ministry of Reintegration: The flow of humanitarian goods to the liberated Kherson region continues,” kmu.gov.ua, 21 November 2022
#GrainFromUkraine: the US provides up to 20 million dollars for the purchase of Ukrainian food to fight hunger in Africa and Asiakmu.gov.ua, 21 November 2022 ” 
This year, the world saw how important the contribution of Ukrainians is to global food security - address of the President of Ukraine,” kmu.gov.ua, 20 November 2022 
Ukraine prosecutor says four suspected Russian torture sites found in Kherson,” abc.net , 21 November 2022  
Spain to deploy police in Ukraine to assist war crime investigations,” Reuters, 21 November 2022 
Italy to extend Ukraine arms supply law for 2023,” Reuters, 21 November 2022 
 “"Zelensky is an unusually strong man." Interview with the President of Lithuania about the war between Russia and Ukraine and the role of Belarus in it,” Currenttime, 21 November
“Lukashenko describes missile strike in Poland as false flag,” Belta, 21 Novemeber 2022)
Norway signs agreement to assit Ukraine with gas procurement, regjeringen.no, 21 Novemeber 2022
Russia boosts fuel exports to China,” RT, 21 Novemeber 2022 
“Europe hoarding Russian diesel ahead of February 2023 ban,” Trtworld , 21 November 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

LATVIA
Proposes to replace Russian with Official EU languages in Latvian schools
On 21 November, BNN reported that Latvia’s Ministry of Education and Science plans to replace the Russian language with an EU language in schools starting from 2026-27 school years. Russian is not an EU language, and Latvia has no interstate agreements to have the language at schools. The Ministry said that Latvia could integrate the European education system and promote teaching official EU languages, resulting in the students having wider employment opportunities in the EU and outside its borders. The demand for the EU languages reduced the use of Russian falls. The opinions of the people changed due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Ministry will develop amendments to the primary education system to promote EU languages. (“Latvian Ministry of Education proposes replacing Russian language with EU languages in schools,” bnn-news.com, 21 November 2022)

THE UK
New Northern Ireland Bill to provide time for executive formations and revise MLA salaries
On 21 November, the UK introduced the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Bill to extend the period of Executive formation and to delegate the authorisation of MLA salaries to the Secretary of the State. The bill extends the formation by six weeks of 08 December to allow the Northern Ireland (NI) parties to come together to form a government along with an additional provision to extend for a further six weeks up to 19 December. It also proposed to amend MLA salaries, who have been observed to drawing salaries without performing the duties creating public dissatisfaction. Through the bill the Secretary of the State will be able to reduce the salary and held in maintaining the public service delivery. The bill was aimed to provide time for Executive formation to avoid another election. (“
Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Bill Introduced in Parliament,” gov.uk, 21 November 2022)
 
Bank of England highlights the need to regulate crypto amid the FTX collapse
On 21 November, the Bank of England emphasised the need to regulate cryptocurrency. Amid the FTX collapse, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe reiterated the need for it to be brought into a regulatory framework and added that tighter controls need to be introduced to prevent future consequences if it depreciates and creates a “crypto shock.” Cunliffe said that the Bank of England and the Treasury Ministry are looking into new financial services and market laws to regulate cryptocurrency and added that they are looking to introduce a digital pound sometime in the future. (“FTX collapse shows need to regulate crypto, says Bank of England,” Reuters, 21 November 2022)

REGIONAL
France, Germany and Romania gather to aid Moldova’s economic crisis.
On 21 November, France hosted a conference to assist Moldova with international aid amidst the refugee crisis, power blackouts, and security threats from the neighbouring Ukraine war. France, Germany, and Romania created the “International Support Platform for Moldova” initiative, which raised millions of euros at Berlin and Bucharest conferences. Russia lowering Moldova’s gas supply, its lack of a gas storage facility and the halt in electricity imports from Ukraine due to damage to Ukrainian infrastructure have resulted in Moldova’s economic woes. Moldova, an EU candidate, has the support of the bloc’s member states in reforming its economy. Around 45 delegates representing the US, the EU and other international organizations will be at France’s conference. (“International aid conference aims to help Moldova weather energy crisis and neighbouring war,” euronews, 21 November 2022)
 
EU still hesitant on the state of the Rule of Law in Hungary
On 21 November, the EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said that the EU is still unsure about the state of the Rule of Law in Hungary. According to Reynders, the European Commission is open to talks with Hungary and added that these talks will help Hungary implement proposed reform measures effectively. The EU has expressed concerns with regard to the independence of the Hungarian judiciary from political influence and had given Hungary time till 19 November to adopt 17 measures to ensure the same. According to Hungary’s Justice Minister Judit Varga: “Hungary has done its utmost to reach an agreement with the European Commission in order to meet the seventeen commitments previously negotiated to allow the release of EU funds by the deadline”. (“The EU Still Has Rule of Law Concerns about Hungary, Commissioner Says,” Hungary Today, 21 November 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
The Commission signs partnership with Kazakhastan, Namibia and Egypt in COP27
On 20 November, the European Commission set out various goals and plans to fulfil at the end of the COP27 UN Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. The Commission adjusted its goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celcius. The EU wanted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent before 2030 and align the Glasgow Climate Pact’s goal for Nationally Determined Contribution with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by 2023 as a solution to limit global warming to 1.5 per cent. The EU also promised funds for loss and damage to aid developing countries vulnerable to climate change impacts. The EU also signed partnerships with Kazakhstan, Namibia and Egypt on renewable hydrogen and raw materials. The EU pledged to provide Africa with EUR 1 billion as a climate change adaptation fund. The main focus was to make the Paris Agreement prominent again. (“EU agrees to COP27 compromise to keep Paris Agreement alive and protect those most vulnerable to climate change*,” ec.europa.eu, 21 November 2022)

Switzerland takes the lead in promoting digitization in the Francophonie summit
On 20 November, 30 countries attended the 18th Francophonie Summit in Djerba, Tunisia. The main themes of the summit were digital technology and diversity. Switzerland’s President, Ignazio Cassis, promoted Switzerland’s role in global digital governance and showed his support for the re-election of Louise Mushikiwabo as the Secretary-General of the International Organization of La Francophonie (OIF). Cassis said that the role of new technologies in improving public services and the most disadvantaged’s lives are important for the future. Switzerland has focused on digitalization as one of the main themes of its foreign policy. The summit had panel discussions on “Connectivity in diversity: digital technology as a vector of development and solidarity in the Francophone space” and “Digital technology, a priority instrument for La Francophonie”. Cassis highlighted Switzerland’s digital capabilities in Geneva and how they can play a vital role in digitization among French-speaking countries. The summit also discussed strengthening efforts to have more women and young people as agents of peace and development. (“Francophonie summit: President of the Swiss Confederation promotes Geneva's role in global digital governance,” admin.ch, 20 November 2022)  


19 November 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #362

War in Ukraine:Day 268 | Survey finds 51 per cent of Russians show positive attitude towards Finland

The EU strives for a common climate goal in COP27; Renewal or counter-terrorism strategy approved in Finland; Protesters call for an early election in Montenegro

Photo : Sasu Makinen./Lehtikuva via AP


War in Ukraine: Day 268
By Sai Pranav and Sandeep Ganesh

War on the Ground
On 18 November, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, spoke at the government meeting discussing financial aid to Ukraine. In his speech, he said that the European Commission’s Executive Vice-President, Valdis Dombrovskis, had announced that the EU has committed to providing EUR 2.5 billion in November and 500 million in December as financial aid to Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv. The US, Canada and the EU have pledged financial aid to Ukraine next year. Ukraine has also requested USD 4.5 billion in grants from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and International Development Association for its recovery from the war.

On 18 November, in an interview, Ukraine’s Head of the State Emergency Service (SES), Serhiy Kurk, said that Ukraine had increased its demining in the retaken Kherson and Mykolaiv region. More than 8000 square kilometres were demined, most belonging to the Kherson region. The pyrotechnic units of the SES worked with military-civilian administrations to remove 30 per cent of mines from the de-occupied Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. The SES has procured life support systems and provisions for the citizens in the regions and has created humanitarian hubs where aid distribution takes place in the Kherson region.

On 18 November, Ukraine’s Deputy Head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, announced the start of  “Points of Invincibility” initiative to operation in the centre of retaken Kherson city. The initiative implemented by the President’s Office and the SES provides internet, extension cords for charging phones, power banks, and heating. Two tents were deployed for the people to access the service, as Kherson does not have an electricity supply. Tables, chairs, sunbeds for children and the elderly, water, snacks, tea, coffee and biscuits were also available inside the tents. Generators for heating and electricity, water, food and cellular network were provided in the points of invincibility. Tymoshenko said that the points of invincibility will be open all the time except for curfews and will be accessible to other parts of the de-occupied Kherson region soon.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 November, RT reported that Russia’s Defence Ministry had claimed that it had destroyed a missile manufacturing facility and other key targets in Ukraine. Long-range precision weapons were used to strike Ukraine’s military control system, military-industrial complex and associated fuel and energy facilities. The strike damaged an ammo depot of western weapons and disrupted the Ukrainian troop’s logistics. The air strikes on energy infrastructure have rendered Ukrainian gas firms like Naftogaz unable to operate and resulted in blackouts.

On 16 November, Russia’s spokesperson, Vladimir Dzhabarov, warned about attending the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Warsaw from 24 to 26 November for Russian officials being denied visas to Poland. In response, Poland said that denying Russian officials visas would breach its solidarity with Ukraine.

On 18 November, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, stated: “We demand that international organisations condemn and thoroughly investigate this shocking crime. No atrocity committed by Ukrainian military units will remain unpunished. All those guilty and their accomplices will be identified and punished accordingly. Nobody will escape retribution.” She urged international communities to condemn Ukraine for ruthlessly shooting detained prisoners of war and for their cruel treatment. A video showing Ukrainian soldiers torturing Russian prisoners is being circulated, showing the true nature of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis violating the 1949 Geneva Convention, According to Zakharova.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 18 November, the Swedish security service was working intensely on the investigation regarding the detonation at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. This investigation showed that the pipelines have been subject to gross sabotage. These crime scene investigations were carried out in the Baltic Sea, and the extensive damage caused by the detonation of these pipelines has been thoroughly documented. Several foreign items have been seized, and the explosive residue was identified on a few seized and analysed foreign items. The investigation is being conducted by the Swedish Security Service and is headed by a National Security Unit prosecutor. Our Service is being assisted in this case by several agencies including, among others, the Swedish Coast Guard, the Swedish Armed Forces and the Swedish police Authority.  
 
On 18 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will not support the EU aid plan to Ukraine, with billions in budget assistance next year, blocking a major aid package the EU unveiled last week. At a conference in Budapest, Orban said while Hungary condemns Russia’s aggression and supports the Ukrainian people, he is not willing to put Ukraine’s interests before those of his country. The aid plan of EUR 18 billion to Ukraine next year in regular payments to help keep energy and health care facilities running as well as to fund salaries and pension schemes. Orban recommended that the EU’s 27 members determine how much they are willing to provide to Ukraine and distribute the sum in a proportional and fair way among themselves without jointly our loans to make the payments. The commission intends to borrow the money on capital markets using the combined weight of the 27 countries to secure more favourable terms. 
 
On 18 November, The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine endorsed an order to amend amendments to the agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the Republic of Poland. Raising concessional loans of EUR 160 million for investment projects in Ukraine, in particular, the loan amount increased from EUR 60 million to EUR 160 million. The deadline was extended from December 31, 2022, to December 31, 2024. The companies that are investing in Ukraine are Ukravtodor, the State Customs Service and the Administration of the State Border Guard service.

On 18 November, Deutsche Welle reported that Russia’s commercial airline industry has been facing an impending collapse. The Russian airlines use commercial aircraft that the West supplied. The international sanctions on Russia’s aviation sectors made foreign airlines and manufacturers cut ties with it. Boeing and Airbus, major aircraft manufacturers stopped supplying aircraft and spare parts to Russia. Experts suspect that Russia has been using existing parts, cannibalism of planes and loopholes around the sanctions to maintain its aviation industry. However, unlike Iran, which had older aircraft models, Russia has modern ones requiring regular updates and advanced semiconductors. According to experts, sanctions have slowly worked on Russian aviation technology, and they predict they will collapse within two weeks.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 November, India’s coal-fired power output grown rapidly than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscoring the challenges the world's third largest greenhouse gas emitter in weaning its economy off carbon. The global use of coal including power generation, has grown since the Ukraine war in late February sent prices of other fossil fuels soring, derailing efforts to transition to cleaner fuels.  
 
On 17 November, the UN watchdog board again urges Russia to end actions at Ukraine's nuclear plants. The UN nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation board of Governors on 17 November,  passed its third resolution since the outbreak of the Ukraine war calling on Russia to end all actions at Ukrainian nuclear facilities, diplomats as per the vote. Of the 35 countries 24 countries voted in favour, two counties Russia and China voted against, seven countries Kenya, Namibia, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Vietnam abstained and two countries were absent. Canada and Finland called on Russia to immediately withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.

References
Speech of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal at the Government meeting,” kmu.gov.ua, 18 November 2022
30% of the territory of Ukraine is mined. In terms of scale, it is like two territories of the state of Austria, - Serhii Kruk,” dsns.gov.ua, 18 November 2022
"Points of Invincibility" opened in Kherson, where citizens can charge their phones and keep warm,” president.gov.ua, 18 November 2022
Ukrainian missile-production facility destroyed – Russian military,” RT, 18 November 2022
Russian delegation denied visas,” RT, 18 November 2022
Moscow calls for worldwide denunciation of Russian POW execution by Ukrainian troops — MFA,” TASS, 19 November 2022
“Confirmed sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines,”  Serkerhet, 18 November 2022 
Hungary will not support EU aid plan to Ukraine, Orban says,” Apnews, 18 November 2022 
“Poland raises concessional loan to EUR 160 million for investment projects in Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 18 November 2022
Killian Bayer Riga, “Sanctions: Russia's commercial airlines face a slow death,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2022 
“Analysis: India power binges on coal, outpaces Asia,” Reuters, 18 November 2022 
“UN nuclear watchdog board again urges Russia to end actions at Ukrainian plants,” Reuters, 18 November 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Madhura S Mahesh

CZECH REPUBLIC
Demand for brown coal rises 
On 18 November, AP News reported that the Czech Republic is seeing a rise in demand for brown coal. Compared to 2021, in the first nine months of 2022, the demand for coal rose by 35 per cent due to the rising energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In Ostrava, part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, coal factories have piles of coal ready for purchase as it is now the cheapest source of fuel to power homes during winter. Adding to this increase in demand is the decision of the Czech government to completely halt mining around Ostrava in order to safeguard energy supplies amid increasing demand for energy supply. This rise in demand for coal in the Czech Republic is affecting its climate goals and increasing pollution in the northeastern region of the Czech Republic. (“High energy prices lead to coal revival in Czech Republic,” AP News, 18 November 2022)

FINLAND
Survey by Foreign Ministry finds 51 per cent of Russians show positive attitude towards Finland
On 17 November, Finland’s Foreign Ministry released its survey result on Russian impression about Finland. The 2022 survey resulted indicated a positive attitude amongst 51 per cent adult Russian on Finland, while 22 per cent were observed to have an negative attitude. Comparing with the 2021, the per cent has reduced by 17 per cent for the positive attitude category and increase in the negative attitude by 17 per cent. Few reasons behind the positive attitude is Finland seen as a place for “high standard of living, freedom and democracy.” Its nature, culture, arts, tourism and shopping have added to the share. Whereas the increase in negative attitude was due to Finland’s decision to join the NATO, fear of sanction threatening their relations and limited travel opportunities due to COVID-19. (“Regular Foreign Ministry survey: more than half of Russians positive towards Finland,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 November 2022)

IMF projects a grim view on Finland’s economy
On 17 November, Finland’s Ministry of Finance published IMF’s review on its economic where the IMF projected the deteriorating economic outlook and increasing fiscal pressures for Finland. The reason behind the economic pressure is mainly due to improving security measures and steps taken by the government to protect households from inflation. It recommended the reversal of fiscal impulse through energy support measures and structural reforms to reflect in long-term economic growth. In a statement IMF suggests: “The tightening of global financial conditions will put pressure on Finland’s large and interconnected financial system with high exposure to household indebtedness, which calls for further strengthening banks’ liquidity buffers, improving the macro-prudential toolkit, and—when circumstances allow—reinstating capital buffers.” (“IMF presented its review of the Finnish economy,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 November 2022; “Finland: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2022 Article IV Mission, suomenpankki.fi, 17 November 2022)

Finland approves resolution to renew its counter terrorism strategy
On 17 November, Finland’s Ministry of the Interior adopted a resolution on the National Counter-Terrorism Strategy for 2022–2025. Although there has not been a significant new provision, the strategy is viewed important due to the changing security scenario. The aim of the Strategy is enforcing the existing cooperation model and bring new approaches. According to the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service’s assessment, Finland stands at the “Second level, or ‘elevated’, on the four-tier scale,” which remains unchanged since 2017. The Strategy outlines Finland’s counter terrorism activities, where it strives cooperation across global and the EU. It involves “prevention of the violent radicalisation,” committed to NATO’s frame work in counter terrorism, and extremism. (“Government resolution guides Finland’s counter-terrorism activities,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 November 2022)

LATVIA
Latvia celebrates 104 years of Independence 
On 18 November, Latvia celebrated 104 since the proclamation of independence on 18 November 1918. The day was celebrated with various festivities across the country starting with an ecumenical service in the Riga Cathedral which was followed by a flower-laying ceremony at the Freedom Monument. A military parade also took place which included the National Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and foreign allies like Canada. The Latvian President addressed the Latvian diaspora around the world and said: "It is a day when we think about Latvia more, on [a] much deeper level... there is no other one like Latvia, no better place for us," and added: "Latvia is becoming more Latvian." (“Latvia marks 104 years since the proclamation of independence,” 18 November 2022) 
  
MONTENEGRO
Protesters gather calling for an early election
On 17 November, protesters hit the streets of Podgorica calling for early elections and the withdrawal of a law that restricted presidential powers. The protests were backed by the Ima nas (We are numerous) movement which is supported by President Milo Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies. The protestors also advocated for the reconstitution of Montenegro’s constitutional court which is not functioning as MPs are not able to come to a consensus. Djukanovic supporters rally in Montenegro calling for early election,” EURACTIV, 18 November 2022)
 
The UK
UK Met police arrests 1,700 to reduce the criminal activities
On 17 November, UK’s Metropolitan Police reported on arresting 1,700 suspects involved in criminal activities, drug dealing and sex offences in past six weeks. The move comes after new Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley reported the drug gangs to be one of the main focus of the Met police as part of its bring down “high-risk and high-impact offenders.” On the same lines, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak expressed his wish to target the criminals and jail more offenders to make streets safe for women. He added: “We should charge more people and reduce crime and have them in jail.” (Andrew Woodcock, “Sunak says he wants more people in jail to make streets safer for women,” independent.co.uk, 18 November 2022; Laura Parnaby, “Almost 1,700 suspects, including drug dealers, arrested over six weeks by Met,” independent.co.uk, 18 November 2022)

REGIONAL 
COP27 delayed; EU collective effort to bring the signatories under common finance goals
On 18 November, Frankfurter Allgemeine reported on the delay in concluding the COP27 due to extension in the negotiation. The Egyptian Presidency which offered a final declaration draft of 10 pages was cut to eight pages with agreement from 200 signatory states to abide to 1.5 degree target. Differences seem to continue over increasing of national reduction contribution and phasing out from coal. Another challenge to the final declaration is all developmental banks aligning their finance to achieve the goals set in 2015 Paris agreement. EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans reached to China and G-77 group to take part in the funding roadmap, while the West seemed to be resistant to challenges in directing the money to climate change solutions. According to Timmermans: "If our steps forward are not met with concessions, we will fail." (Christian Geinitz, “Timmermans said. "If our steps forward are not met with concessions, we will fail," Frankfurter Allgemeine, 18 October 2022)

Estonian-Latvian defence forces vehicles to be delivered in 2023
On 19 November, ERR reported Estonia and Latvia’s joint procurement of vehicles for Estonian defence forces will start arriving in 2023. The two countries had signed a 10-year procurement deal earlier this year worth EUR 693 million which will equip the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF), Estonian Defence League (EDL) and Police and Border Gaurd Board (PPA) with 16 different types of vehicles. While the exact number of vehicles will depend on the market price, the Center for Defence Investment (RKK) said that they will be placing the first order for four years of vehicles at the same time which will be delivered in the latter part of 2023 to Estonia. (“Joint Estonian, Latvian procured defense forces vehicles to arrive in 2023,” news.err.ee, 19 November 2022)
 
Negotiations begin to increase Frontex’s presence in Western Balkans
On 18 November, the European Council reported that it will be starting negotiations with Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro to increase the presence of Frontex in these countries. EU’s border agency Frontex has a limited presence in these countries and the European Council wants it to play a greater role in the Western Balkans to  “assist those countries to manage migration flows, counter illegal immigration and to tackle cross border crime.” The Balkans are used by asylum seekers and migrants from Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia to enter the EU and these negotiations will assist to “detect and block irregular migration movements early on.” (“Council to negotiate increasing EU border agency’s presence in Western Balkans,” EURACTIV, 18 November 2022) 

 


17 November 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #360

Slovenia Presidential Election: Four Issues | War in Ukraine: Day 266

Norway signs a Defence deal with the US; Bosnia and Herzegovina elects three President to represent major ethnic group; The EU pledges EUR 35 million to Egypt for its Energy Wealth Initiative

Photo : AP Photo/Darko Bandic


IN FOCUS
By Sai Pranav

Slovenia Presidential Election: Four Issues
Election results
On 13 November, Natasa Pirc Musar was elected as the first female President in Slovenia following her victory in the runoff election. She won the election with 53.86 per cent against the former Foreign Minister, Anze Logar’s 46.14 per cent. On 23 October, Solvenia held the first round of the presidential election in which there was no clear victor crossing 50 per cent of votes from the people. Logar led the first round with 34 per cent, and Pirc Musar trailed second with 27 per cent of the votes. Former speaker of Slovenia’s National Assembly and MEP Milan Brglez secured third place with 15 per cent. However, he did not advance to the runoff. The first round saw a voter turnout of 35 per cent, higher than the 2017 election. The voter turnout for the runoff was estimated to be 49.9 per cent.

Four campaign issues
First, prioritizing human rights. Musar as a human rights lawyer before becoming an independent candidate for Presidency, campaigned for equal rights for the LGBTQ+ community in Slovenia. She also pledged to be the voice for women at the national and international stage. She promised to work with NGOs and civic activists in the field of human rights.

Second, upholding the rule of law and democracy. Musar, like Prime Minister Robert Golob from the Freedom Movement party, aims to fix the damages done to the democracy by the ousted former Prime Minister Jansa. She intends to undo the oppression of media, corruption in the judicial system, and the breach of the rule of law by Jansa for two years along with Golob. She also wants Slovenia to uphold the rule of law and strive for democratic values.

Third, addressing the social and ecological welfare issues. Musar determined four crucial areas that Slovenia needs for development and social cohesion. She campaigned on improving policies for health, pension reforms, climate change and climate neutrality. She also addressed the security issues concerning the ongoing Ukraine war and regional problems with Albania.

Fourth, pro-Slovenian policy. Musar assured to support Golob’s foreign policies to maintain a moderate level of aid to Ukraine, backing the European Integration of the Western Balkans via talks with Serbia. Unlike the opposition, Musar does not favour collaborating with Hungary and V4 countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) and Ukraine. Musar wants to focus on EU-wide issues, especially the green transition program while keeping Slovenia’s internal issues first.

References
Katja Lihtenvalner, “Slovenia elects first female president,” Reuters, 14 November 2022
Slovenia: Natasa Pirc Musar elected first female president,” Deutsche Welle, 13 November 2022
Jones Hayden, “Slovenia heads for runoff in presidential election,” POLITICO, 23 October 2022
Gasper Andrinek Ljubljana, “Who will succeed Slovenia's 'Instagram president?',” Deutsche Welle, 11 November 2022
Lukasz Kobeszko, “The left-liberal march forward: Pirc Musar is president of Slovenia,” osw.waw.pl, 14 November 2022
Pirc Musar too joins presidential race,” The Slovenia Times, 22 September 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 266
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 16 November, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, participated in the panel on digital transformation at the G20 summit in Bali. In the speech, Zelenskyy accused Russia for attacking Poland with its missiles. He spoke on Ukraine’s capacity in, “digital transformation,” appreciating the efforts of the IT team to defend cyberattacks. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was ready to assist countries in digital defence and cybersecurity.

On 16 November, Kyiv Post reported that Ukraine requested access to the missile attack site in Poland following NATO’s discovery that Ukrainian air defences caused the blast. Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council Secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, said that Ukraine was ready to provide evidence to prove their allegation of Russia being the perpetrator. Danilov pointed out that the Western countries' allegation of the Ukrainian air defence system striking Poland was without substantial proof. NATO and the US had concluded that the attack was caused by Ukrainian air defence against Russian missiles.

On 16 November, Ukraine’s Deputy Head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, announced that energy supplies and electricity were restored in eight Western and Central Ukraine regions. The restoration followed the shelling on 15 November. 

On 16 November, Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Herman Galushchenko, convened a meeting which was attended by European Ministers, Galushchenko urged the council to help with the restoration of Ukraine’s energy systems after being stricken by 100 missiles and large number of drones. He added that the damage Ukraine suffered was critical. However, energy companies domestically have been supporting Ukraine to restore electricity supply.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 November, Russia’s presidential spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said that Russia played no part in the Poland attack and should not be blamed for it. After an initial investigation, it was discovered to be Ukraine’s S-300 interceptor missile. He pointed out the Russophobic nature in Europe for Poland and Ukraine blaming Russia for the attack.

On 16 November, Russia’s Foreign Ministry imposed sanctions on 52 Irish individuals due to Ireland’s aggressive anti-Russian propaganda campaign in line with the EU’s policy against Russia. It included the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Speaker and those present in the lower house.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 16 November, post the North-Atlantic Council meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in his address said: "...we have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack. And we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks." 

On 15 November, The Czech Republic’s Parliament’s Chamber of Deputies passed a resolution following Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s key energy infrastructures and on the civilian population with missiles and drones.

On 16 November, Russia’s crude oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia resumed through the Druzhba pipeline, after a temporary shutdown on 15 November for technical reasons. Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the flow of the oil was still at lower pressure in the pipeline, while Slovakia’s Economy Ministry provided no details except for the resumption. Ukraine had elaborated that a Russian missile struck the power station that provided electricity for the pump station which resulted in the stoppage. The pipeline was repaired to an extent of resuming oil flow at low pressure to Hungary and Slovakia.

On 16 November, the UK’s Defence Ministry’s in its intelligence update reported that the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Dnipro River was damaged due to the Ukrainian missile attacks that disrupted the Russian military restocking supply. The dam and the site were damaged by the withdrawing Russians to hinder Ukrainian advances. The road and rail bridges were destroyed and the current damage may lead to major flooding downstream.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 16 November, in the G20 summit, the leaders talked about the negative impact on the global economy due to the Ukraine war.  According to the G20 group the war had increased food and energy insecurity, rise in inflation, supply chain disruption, cost of living crisis and security issues in neighbouring countries. Especially, Moldova and Bulgaria were observed to be severely affected by the high inflation rates.

On 15 November, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, called for peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war at the Bali G20 summit. The path finds a way for diplomacy and a ceasefire in Ukraine is important to end the war. He said, “The need of the hour is to show concrete and collective resolve to ensure peace, harmony and security in the world,” and urged for restoration of stability in energy, food and fertilizer supply at the global level.

References
Take the Ukrainian defense experience to guarantee the security of your people - the President's speech during the participation in the panel "Digital transformation" within the framework of the G20 summit,” president.gov.ua, 16 November 2022
Ukraine Requests “Immediate Access” to Poland Blast Site,” Kyiv Post, 16 November 2022
Ukraine Says Power Being Restored After Russian Strikes,” Kyiv Post, 16 November 2022
The high-level International Energy Advisory Council discussed the provision of additional assistance to the Ukrainian energy sector,” mev.gov.ua, 16 November 2022
Kremlin sees no reason for escalation in S-300 missile incident in Poland,” TASS, 16 November 2022
Russia sanctions 52 key Irish politicians,” TASS, 16 November 2022
Moscow mocks Zelensky's allegations,” RT, 16 November 2022
The Chamber of Deputies called the current Russian regime terrorist by resolution,” psp.cz, 15 November 2022
"Press conference," nato.int, 16 November 2022
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 16 November 2022,” Twitter, 16 November 2022
Russian oil flows via Druzhba pipeline resume to Hungary, Slovakia,” Reuters, 16 November 2022
G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration,” whitehouse.gov, 16 November 2022
India's Modi calls for diplomacy to end Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Reuters, 15 November 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh and Sandeep Ganesh

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Appointed members for the new tripartite Presidency
On 16 November, Bosnia and Herzegovina got their first women elected along with two other non-ethnonationalist leaders for the tripartite Presidency. The three Presidents, elected as representatives of Bosnia’s three main ethnic groups- Bosniaks Serbs and Croats. The three presidents namely Bosniak Denis Bećirović and Bosnian Croat Željko Komšić, from the multi-ethnic centre-left SDP and DF political parties, and Željka Cvijanović from the ethnonationalist Bosnian Serb party SNSD. Cvijanović said that would work at the interest of entities. Bećirović said he would focus on poverty and brain drain. Komšić said NATO membership would be his first priority.  This presidency is a complex administration established by the Dayton Peace Accords that ended Bosnia’s war 1992-1995. The term period of the Presidency is a four-year term. This presidency will be a complex administration established under the Dayton Peace Accords that ended Bosnia’s war 1992-1995. The term period of the Presidency will be four-year term. (“Bosnia's new presidency takes office and vows to resolve mounting crises,” Euronews, 16 November 2022) 
 
THE UK
MI5 names Russia, China, and Iran as major challengers to UK’s security
On 16 November, MI5 General Ken McCallum presented MI5’s annual threat update for 2022. McCallum in his speech highlighted how continued terror threats and actions of Russia, China, and Iran are the major challenges to the UK’s security. On Russia, McCallum highlighted how the continued Ukraine conflict projected a grim future for international security and how UK and other countries have responded through expulsion of over 400 covert spies.  Second, China seen as the most “games-changing” challenge to the UK according to MI5. He reported how its influence in local politics, economy and debt financing is helping manipulate the natives internationally, indicating the recent violence in Manchester. On Iran, He referred it as the “state actor which most frequently crosses into terrorism.” For the UK Iran’s “aggressive” intelligence service poses a direct threat with its cyber-attacks and threats to UK-based individuals who are considered enemies of the state. (“Director General Ken McCallum gives annual threat update,” mi5.gov.uk, 16 November 2022)
 
Environment Ministry pledges GBP 50 million towards protection of biodiversity 
On 16 November, UK’s Environment Secretary Therese Coffey asked for “renewed global action” on nature and set forth an “ambitious” path for the same at COP’s Biodiversity Day. Coffey announced GBP 54 million in funds towards the protection of biodiversity. She reiterated that consistent action is required from the public and private sectors, and mentioned that there is a financing gap of USD 700 billion. Coffey emphasised that half of the world’s GDP is dependent on nature and that the COP27 Presidency wants to protect 30 per cent of land and ocean by 2030. She said: “Security, livelihoods and productivity depend on the global web of life,” and that natural habitats need robust protection. (“Environment Secretary calls for action to protect and restore nature at COP27, “ gov.uk, 16 November 2022)
 
REGIONAL
European Defence Agency urges EU members to increase cooperation on joint arms projects
On 15 November, The European Defence Agency (EDA) released its report called Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD). The report details how despite plans to increase the military budget of EU members to EUR 70 billion by 2050, the majority are sceptical of European defence cooperation projects and prefer to plan in isolation. The report highlighted that only 18 per cent of total investment in defence projects was towards EU defence cooperation. It criticised the outward nature of defence procurement by EU members which has increased due to the Ukraine conflict. Outlining how EU members purchase defence equipment from suppliers outside the EU like South Korea, the US, and Israel rather than from EU nations, EDA fears that this purchasing pattern will have a negative effect on European defence. It not only increases the dependency on other countries but adds to the disintegrating European defence. (“EU must spend, cooperate more on joint arms projects, bloc’s defence agency says,” EURACTIV, 16 November 2022)

Sweden amends its anti-terror laws to comply Turkey’s demand
On 16 November, Sweden passed a constitutional amendment to make anti-terror laws stricter, complying with Turkey’s demand to Sweden for its NATO membership bid approval. The new amendment introduces the law to “limit freedom of association when it comes to associations that engage in or support terrorism” and “wider criminalization of participation in a terrorist organization or a ban against the terrorist organization.” The law meets the demand that Turkey should not support the PKK terrorists and the group responsible for the failed 2016 coup in Turkey, the Gulenist Terror Group (FETO). It also demands the extradition of terror suspects in the Nordic countries. The new law will be implemented from 01 January. (“Sweden passes tougher anti-terror laws amid demands from Türkiye,” Daily Sabah, 16 November 2022) 

SPACE
First spaceport licence issued by the UK as it moves closer to launching the indigenous satellite
On 16 November, the UK presented its first spaceport license and created a path for the country’s first satellite launch later this year. The license was issued to Spaceport Cornwall, where the UK regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) said that it was in “very advanced stages”. The license puts the country at an advantage and pushes its bid to be the first country in Europe from which satellites can be launched into orbit. (“Britain issues first spaceport licence ahead of maiden satellite launch,” Reuters, 16 November 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU and Egypt sign agreement regarding clean energy transition
On 16 November, the European Union (EU) and Egypt furthered their relations on clean energy transition through the establishment of a strategic partnership based on renewable hydrogen and equitable energy transition in Egypt. The European Commission and Egypt’s Minister for Petroleum signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the same, along with a joint statement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The Commission announced a contribution of nearly EUR 35 million in support of Egypt’s Energy Wealth Initiative. The MoU was signed in the previous week at COP27 and will “serve as a central block” in building a strategic partnership between the EU and Egypt. (“COP27: EU and Egypt step up cooperation on the clean energy transition,” ec.europa.eu, 16 November 2022) 
 
Norway-US sign F-35 missiles agreement
On 16 November, the Director General of the Norwegian Defence Material Agency (NDMA) and the US government signed a defence deal worth NOK five billion. This deal will equip the Norwegian Air Force’s F-35s with AMRAAM-D air-to-air missiles. The AMRAAM-D purchase is the largest procurement of weapons by the Air Force. Norway’s Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram said: “This is a very important agreement both for Norway’s defensive capabilities and US-Norwegian defence cooperation.” The deal is funded by the Norwegian F-35 programme which has provisions for such missile procurement and the delivery of the missiles is said to continue till 2028. (“Norway signs record agreement for F-35-missiles,” regjeringen.no, 16 November 2022) 


16 November 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #359

War in Ukraine: Day 265

Sweden's Central Bank faces inflation pressure; PKK denies Istanbul blast involvement; The EU pledged to help India phase-out coal at COP27

Photo : INTS KALNINS/REUTERS


War in Ukraine: Day 265
By Sandeep Ganesh

War on the Ground
On 15 November, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his G20 address reinstated Ukraine’s intention to end war fairly based on the UN charter and international law. He stressed that Ukraine should not reach peace while compromising its sovereignty, territory, and independence. One of the major fallout from the war food insecurity, he wanted the grain initiative to be extended. On the Energy security, he reported on Ukraine’s survival on about 40 per cent, with its energy infrastructure destroyed by Russian strikes.
 
On 15 November, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, traced the Russian forces movement. It said that Russia kept the temporarily captured territories, to concentrate their efforts on restraining the Ukraine defence forces and to conduct offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdivv and Novopavli direction. In the recent observation, while Russia had launched four missiles and 23 air strikes and launched more than 70 attacks from rocket salvo systems. The Ukrainian Fores struck the enemy 21 times, 18 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, and three positions of Russia’s anti-aircraft missile systems.
 
On 15 November, according to Ukraine’s Operational Command South, Head, Nataliia Humeniuk, the Russian forces were observed to be moving 15-20 kilometers to the left bank of the Dnipro River. The Russian troops had deserted even the fortified set on the east bank of the Dnipro River had advanced deeper to consider the long-range artillery of the armed forces of Ukraine.   
 
On 15 November, “Volodymyr Kudrytskyi” on a Facebook post said that the energy facility that provided energy to the Kherson and Mykolaiv region no longer exists as the Autotransformers each weighing 250 tons were blown up. The Ukrenergo, together with the Ukrainian Central Bank, the State Emergency Service and Oblenergo, are already working out schemes for Kherson.
 
On 15 November, a Ukrainian military spokesman Yuriy Ihnat claimed that a shortage of missiles further hampers Russian strikes because it's experiencing a lack of cruise and ballistic missiles, Russia is especially short of Iskanders, X555, X101 missiles and Kalibr missiles. Russia shot 15 Kalibr cruise missiles in October, which was not used in November.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the side-lines of the G20 summit in Indonesia said: “Conflict in Ukraine in hybrid war,” in which Russia is facing the wrath of the West triggered crises. He provided examples of the EU’s move to train about 15000 troops in the next two years arming and funding Ukrainian troops, supplying intelligence and assisting with identifying targets. 
 
On 15 November, The Russian Defence Ministry reported that Russian armed forces destroyed up to 1400 Ukrainian troops during the battles for Pavlovka. The two Su-25 aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters were shot down. This was announced by the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkav. He stated that with the success of the Russian troops, the settlement of Pavlovka in DPR was freed.
 
On 15 November, Zvezda reported that the Russian Ministry of Defence will pay 300,000 Roubles to Russians for downed planes. This payment would be made for the destruction of equipment of the Ukraine armed forces. They would be paid 200,000 for a helicopter, for a destroyed tank and servicemen would receive 100,000 Roubles for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UVA) 50,000. The new recruited soldiers will receive payments for December ahead of schedule, for which 300,000 personnel would be called up as part of the mobilization program.   

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 15 November, After the alleged attack on Poland territory by Russia killing two people, Poland is likely to invoke NATO’S Article 4. The article states that if any member is threatened then a collective decision will be taken by NATO. This incident took place in Poland along the border area with Ukraine just six km away from the border. US President has said that Poland’s blast may not be due to a missile fired from Russia. 
 
On 15 November, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened the National Defence Council meeting over Poland Missile reports after crude shipments on the Druzhba pipeline were suspended.
 
On 15 November, ahead of the winter, Germany has reached 100 per cent storage capacity of gas. This milestone was reached on the same day as Germany opened a new quay dedicated to importing of LNG by sea as an alternative to Russian gas. To avoid an energy shortage Germany temporarily reactivated old oil and coal-fired power stations and extended the life spans of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants. 
 
On 15 November, Germany set up a hub in Slovakia to repair arms for Ukraine said German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht. This hub is to be set up to provide service and repair weapons it has delivered to Ukraine. Defence Minister of Slovakia Jaroslav Nad said repair work would start in the next weeks to focus on howitzers and anti-aircraft systems. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 15 November, at the G20 summit, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for dialogue and diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine war. He stated that we as a world should find a way to return to the path of a ceasefire in Kyiv. 
 
On 15 November, at the G20 summit, the leaders condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine through a draft declaration. They stressed over the risks to global food security by escalating tensions, and emphasised the need for the independence of central banks to ensure they put their best efforts to curb soaring inflation and possible recession in 2023, and human suffering.

References
“Zelensky at G20 summit: If Russia wants to end this war, let it prove it with actions”, Ukrinform, 15, November 2022  
“Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Facebook, 15 November 2022  
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi”, Facebook, 15 November 2022 
“Enemy leaving equipped lines on east bank of Dnipro River Humeniuk,” Uniform, 15 November 2022.  
“Missile Shortage Hampers Further Russian Strikes,” Kyiv Post, 15 November 2022
“Lavrov said that Russia does not refuse negotiations, this is done by Ukraine,” Tass, 15 November 2022 
“Conflict in Ukraine is hybrid war- Lavrov"RT, 15 November 2022 
The Ministry of Defense announced the continuation of the offensive after taking control of Pavlovka”, Lenta, 15 November 2022 
“Mobilized will be paid for success in battle”Lenta, 15 November 2022 
Poland likely to invoke NATO's Article 4, will raise missile blast with UN – officials,” Reuters, 15 November 2022 
Hungary's Defence Council Meeting Over Poland Missile Reports,” Barrons, 15 November 2022 
“Germany's gas storage levels hit 100% capacity,” DW, 15 November 2022 
“Germany to set up hub in Slovakia to repair arms for Ukraine,” Reuters, 15 November 2022 
“At G20 summit, PM Modi calls for dialogue and diplomatic solution to Ukraine war: Key points,” Times of India, 15 November 2022 
Most G20 members condemn Russia's war in Ukraine -draft declaration,” Reuters, 15 November 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

FINLAND
Construction of a 300-megawatt hydrogen plant in Kokkola
On 15 November, Finland’s Aland-based energy company, Flexens, announced at a press conference its plans to build a 300-megawatt hydrogen plant in Kokkola in Central Ostrobothnia. The plant is aimed to be constructed in the Kokkola Industrial Park, an important location for Finland’s chemical production industry. Hydrogen fuels are obtained by using electrolysis on the water to separate hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen can also be processed into green ammonia, used as agricultural fertilizers and fuel for marine engines. Kokkola is located on Finland’s west coast, a suitable place for the energy-intensive electrolysis process due to the place being a hub for wind energy. The cost of the hydrogen plant is EUR 500 million and will be functional only in 2027. A nationwide hydrogen network developed by Gasgrid Finland is planned to deliver green energy throughout the country by 2030. (“Åland firm announces plans for Kokkola hydrogen plant,” yle.fi, 15 November 2022)
 
SWEDEN
The Riksbank faces inflation pressure despite its slow pace
On 15 November, Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, faced underlying price pressure due to inflation. The Riksbank’s Deputy Governor, Martin Floden, said the inflation rate was higher than the bank predicted. There has been a slowdown in inflation in Sweden due to a reduction in energy prices. The electricity prices decreased by 24 per cent between September and October. The consumer price index went down from 9.7 per cent in September to 9.3 per cent in October. However, Floden added that the central bank should deal with the underlying inflation pressure. (“Swedish inflation slows as energy prices drop,” THE LOCAL se, 15 November 2022; “Swedish c.bank's Floden: we need to deal with the core inflation pressure,” Reuters, 15 November 2022)

TURKEY
Kurdish groups deny involvement in Istanbul blast
On 14 November, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its offshoot Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) denied any involvement in the blast that rocked Istanbul on 13 November. This comes as Turkey accused the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia to be behind that attack. Turkish police have arrested a Syrian woman who has confessed to being behind the attack and additional 46 people have been detained for questioning. The Syrian woman is allegedly a PKK-trained “special intelligence officer” who entered Turkey from the Syrian-Turkish border town of Afrin. (“Istanbul blast: Kurdish groups deny involvement as Turkey detains dozens over 'terror attack',” Euronews, 15 November 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Slovenia to buy Algerian gas to secure its gas requirements
On 16 November, Slovenian Infrastructure Minister Bojan Kumar and Algerian Minister of Energy and Mining Mohamed Arkab signed a deal through which Slovenia will buy approximately 300 million cubic meters of natural gas from Algeria. The flow of gas will happen through pipelines in Tunisia and Italy from 01 January 2023. The three-year deal will facilitate gas flow from Algerian energy company Sonatrach to Slovenian energy trader Geoplin. This purchase will cover a third of Slovenia’s gas needs and reduce dependency on Russian gas. (“Slovenia secures Algerian gas to cover third of its needs,” EURACTIV, 16 November 2022)
 
The EU backs India’s call for fossil fuel phase-down as a part of COP27 deal
On 15 November, EU Climate Policy Chief Frans Timmermans said that the EU supports India’s call for fossil fuel phase-down as a part of the COP27 deal provided it does not affect previous agreements on reducing coal. Timmermans said: "But we also have to make sure that this call does not diminish the earlier agreements we had on phasing down coal, so if it comes on top of what we already agreed in Glasgow, then the EU will support in this proposal." Countries that are rich in fossil fuel have voiced their opposition for this proposal saying that the term “phase-down” should be defined and should not “demonise” fossil fuels. Timmermans outlined that the EU looks not to dictate a country’s energy purchases but to send warnings on investment in fossil fuels. (“EU supports COP27 call to phase down all fossil fuels,” Reuters, 15 November 2022)

 


15 November 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #358

War in Ukraine: Day 264 | UN adopts resolution calling Russia to pay war reparations

New Energy Ministry set up in Hungary; France and the UK sign a deal on English Channel migration; Kosovo and Serbia issue lead to the most dangerous crisis, the EU fears

Photo : UNICEF/Anton Kulakowskiy


War in Ukraine: Day 264
By Sai Pranav and Sandeep Ganesh

War on the Ground
On 14 November, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his daily address reported on the re-capturning and resotration effort taken in the Kherson to bring back the normal living conditions for people. Zelenskyy thanked the US and Cannada for their aid to Ukraine. He stressed on ending the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, where close to 11 thousand children were found to be deported.
 
On 14 November, the situation on the ground in Ukraine information from Regional Miliatry Administration; Russian troops shelled at Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dniproprtrovsk, Kherson, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Luhansk regions. Two people were killed, and 14 citizens were injured including one child.  
 
On 14 November, Oleksiy Chernyshov, Chairman of the Board of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, and Gavin Grey, chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Ukraine, discussed the impact of the war on the gas sector and planned a new program of cooperation. Naftogaz Group is the largest national oil and gas company in Ukraine. It is a state-owned company, that execute exploration operations and development of deposits, operating and exploratory drilling, extraction, transportation and refinement of natural gas and crude oil, and supply of natural and liquefied gas to consumers. 
 
On 14 November, Ukrinform reported on the Ukrainian air force struck down four Russian soldiers, weapons and clusters on the left bank of the Dnipro and Kherson region. Russians on the other hand struck with two Kh-31 missiles in the Beryslav district of the Kherson region. The Operational Command South reported on destruction of 40 tanks and seven armoured combat vehicles by Russia. 
 
On 14 November, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a Facebook post thanked the Armed Forces of the Republic of Lithuania for its military support. Lithuania has agreed to give 120-mm Tampella heavy mortars mounted on the M113 A2 armoured platform and mines to the Ukrainian soldiers to fight Russia from a distance of seven kilometres.
 
On 14 November, Ukrinform reported on the damage of close to five residential houses in the Sumy region by Russian shelling. The Russian forces had launched striks in the border areas with self-propelled artillery. No causalities were reported, Russian forces struck down an enterprise in the Sumy region, till now 19 explosions were recorded, and three workers are reported to be injured. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 November, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported that its force had started to advance towards the Donetsk region, freeing Pavlovka village in Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) from the Ukrainian troops. Pavlovka, which is a buffer village located at the crossroads of the exchange of fire, and capturing it paved the way for Russia to advance towards the north. According to the report, the Russian forces have been pushing the Ukrainian troops away from Donetsk city. 

On 13 November, Russia’s Defence Ministry spokesperson, Igor Konashenkov, announced the strike down of six Ukrainian drones and barring of 13 HIMARS missiles and Olkha shells by the Ukrainian forces.An air defence system was found to have destroyed six UAVs in the Kharkiv region, LPR and DPR. 

On 14 November, a former representative of the Kherson region administration, Sergey Moroz, said to TASS that following the occupation of Kherson city by the Ukrainian forces, there had been an increase in attacks on the communities located on the left bank of the Dnieper river. Moroz added that civilian infrastructures on the left bank are being targeted by Ukraine’s Armed Forces after its arrival in Kherson city. He said that Ukrainian forces in Kherson have been using cannon artillery to shell the left bank to de-occupy Russians from the rest of the Kherson region.

On 14 Nov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko, criticized NATO’s  expansionism and said that the conflict in Ukraine stemmed from NATO’s intention of expanding towards Ukraine, to gain a closer border with Russia. NATO refuted the accusation stating that it has an open-door policy that allows any country that requires its protection. However, recent Turkey blocking Finland and Sweden has brought to light that in its charter, it states that all its member states must approve any expansion. The inclusion of Ukraine as its objective despite the warning from Russia is the main reason for the start of the war, according to Grushko.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 November, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the US Department of State introduced a new set of sanctions on transnational network procuring technology that supports the Russian military-industrial complex. OFAC froze the assets of 14 individuals and 28 firms. It also blocked eight aircrafts. It also aims to cut Russia’s revenue to fund the war and weaken its military. A Russian microelectronics firm, Milandr, was also targeted for being the primary supplier of the imported microelectronics that Russia’s Defence Ministry.

On 14 November, the UK’s Defence Ministry in its intelligence update reported that the winter would present tough times during the war. The reduction is the daylight will be is predicted to increase in defensive battles and limit Ukraine’s offensive. The report warned of colder weather and preparation for it. It cautioned both sides to be prepared for night vision battles. The conditions are predicted to get harsher during December and January.

On 14 November, the Czech Presidency of the Council of the EU announced that the bloc had started a training mission for 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian soldier is trained under the EU Military Assistance Mission. On 17 October, the EU Military Assistance Mission was approved at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg.

On 14 November, Germany and Poland announced nationalizing the Russian energy company Gazprom’s assets within their country to secure the energy supply in the winter. The new firm, Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE), previously known by Gazprom Germania, controls Germany’s largest gas storage facility in northwestern Rehden. The EU approving EUR 225.6 million in assistance to Gazprom Germania prompted the nationalization of the Russian energy subsidiary in Germany. Poland announced similar actions with Europolgaz, which owns the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. Both countries stated that nationalization was necessary to protect their energy security.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 14 November, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that demanded Russia pay for reparation for its actions in Ukraine. Among the 193 member states, 50 countries co-sponsored the resolution for compensating the damages, losses injuries that Russia caused to Ukraine. Ukraine urged the UN to hold Russia accountable for the war crime it committed in Ukraine. The reparation mechanism will be created by a group of member states who will decide how it will work. The reparation mechanism will be created outside the UN, making its role null and void. The Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya responded to the draft resolution that a narrow group of states are trying to enact their own law rather than adhering to international law. He added that the UNGA is not a judicial body to force Russia to pay for reparation.

On 14 November, the Wall Street Journal reported that US President Joe Biden and China's President Xi Jinping agreed in acknowledging the threat of the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war. The two leaders think a nuclear war should be avoided at all costs. The statement from Biden and Xi came following their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali.

References
“The reparations that Russia will have to pay for what it has committed are now part of the international legal reality - address by the President of Ukraine”, president.gov.ua, 14 November 2022
Situation in Ukraine”, war.ukraine.ua, 14 November 2022
“Ukrainian Air Force hits four enemy clusters on Dnipro’s left bank”, UKRINFORM, 14 November 2022
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Facebook account, 14 November 2022
“Sumy region’s community comes under enemy fire, five houses damaged”, UKRINFORM, 14 November 2022 
“Oleksiy Chernyshov held an online meeting with the head of the International Monetary Fund mission, Gavin Gray”,  naftogaz.com, 14 November 2022
Russia reports on military advances in Donbass,” RT, 14 November 2022
Six Ukrainian drones, 13 HIMARS and Olkha rockets downed by Russian air defense,”  TASS, 13 November 2022
Shellings of Dnieper’s left bank grew since Kiev’s forces entered Kherson — politician,” TASS, 14 November 2022
NATO needs enemies to justify its existence – Russia,” RT, 14 November 2022
Treasury Sanctions Global Russian Military Supply Chain, Kremlin-linked Networks, and Elites with Western Fortunes,” home.treasury.gov, 14 November 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 14 November 2022,” Twitter, 14 November 202
Germany nationalizes former Gazprom subsidiary,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2022
EU launches military assistance mission for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 14 November 2022
General Assembly adopts resolution on Russian reparations for Ukraine,” news.un.org, 14 November 2022
Andrew Restuccia, Keith Zhai and Ken Thomas, “President Biden, Xi Jinping Move to Stabilize U.S.-China Relations,” WSJ, 14 November 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, and Madhura S Mahesh

BELARUS
Recycling of solid municipal waste increased
On 14 November, Belarus’s Deputy Director of the Operator of Secondary Material Resources Artyom Shkryl reported that solid municipal waste recycling has tripled in the last 10 years. Shkryl reported that the level of usage of solid municipal waste and collection of secondary material resources have increased twice as much when compared to 2010. Shkryl has attributed this increase o an increased responsibility among the public which has led to the formation of a national strategy for managing solid municipal waste and secondary material which is going to be implemented in Belarus. (“Solid municipal waste recycling in Belarus on the rise,” BelTA, 14 October 2022)
 
HUNGARY
New energy ministry to be set up 
On 14 November, the Hungarian government announced a cabinet reshuffle after Minister of Technology and Industry Laszlo Palkovics resigned over differences with regard to the green energy policy. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Chief of Staff Gergely Gulyas reported that a new energy ministry will be set up in December to look into the current energy crisis and energy security. The ministry will be headed by Csaba Lantos, former deputy head of the Hungarian bank OTP. (“Hungary Government Reshuffled Over Energy Policy,” Barron’s, 14 November 2022)
 
REGIONAL
The EU fears Serbia and Kosovo disagreements to transform into dangerous crisis
On 14 November, EU Chief Diplomat Joseph Borrell at the meeting of EU foreign ministers expressed concerns over the situation between Kosovo and Serbia and fears that it may turn into the most dangerous crisis seen in the last decade. Calling on Serbia and Kosovo to fulfil their obligations outlined in the EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Borrell said: “Both parties – both parties – need to urgently show readiness to find a way forward to lower these tensions. It is not acceptable for either party to violate or ignore their Dialogue obligations.” According to Borrell negotiators from Kosovo and Serbia will be arriving in Brussels to provide a solution for the increasing tensions by 21 November. (“EU: Serbia, Kosovo on brink of ‘most dangerous crisis’ in last decade,” EURACTIV, 14 November 2022)
 
France and UK sign migrant patrol deal 
On 14 November, French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin and UK’s Interior Minister Suella Braverman signed an agreement which outlines measures to tackle illegal migration across the English Channel. The agreement outlines that the UK will pay France EUR 72.2 million to increase the number of security personnel at the northern beaches by 40 per cent or approximately 350 personnel. The agreement also outlines the use of human and technological resources for better efficiency in monitoring, detecting and intercepting boats on the French coasts. The deal also provides for the collection and implementation of information gathered from the migrants to take down smuggling networks and deter crossings. (“France, UK sign deal tackling illegal immigration across Channel, “ France24, 14 November 2022)  

The new subsea cable connecting Ireland and Iceland inaugarated
On 14 November, a new undersea telecom cable connecting Ireland and Iceland was completed. The project is a part of Iceland’s plan to make Ireland a “Gateway to Europe”, linking Europe to North America. The cable connects Iceland’s Thorlaskshofn in the South to Ireland’s Galway on its west coast. The cable is the first one that links Ireland without connecting to the UK. A similar project was announced last month to connect Ireland with Japan via the North-West passage. The cable is operated by Iceland’s state-owned company called Farice. The cable is said to be part of the new industrial revolution as it combines high quality, digital infrastructure with renewable technology, infrastructure and skills. (Molly Killeen, “Ireland, and Iceland linked through new subsea telecoms cable,” EURACTIV, 14 November 2022)
 
ECONOMY
Central Bank warns over increasing budget deficit
On 14 November, Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl said that if there is an increase in the budget deficit and a sudden rise in nominal wages it will lead to a direct increase in inflation rates. According to Michl, it is important that budget deficit and nominal wages should not increase by at least five per cent to keep inflation rates stable. Preventing money circulation in the economy will help to reduce inflation in the country. While the central bank has projected nominal wages to grow 6.3 per cent in 2022 and 7.7 per cent in 2023, in real terms it expects it to fall to 9.4 per cent and 1.2 per cent. (“Czech wage growth below 5% needed to tame inflation, central bank governor says, “ Reuters, 14 November 2022)


14 November 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #357

EU's Cyber Defence Policy & Action Plan 2.0: Key takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 262 & 263

Slovenia elects its first female President; Bulgaria Birder Police face unprecedented migration pressure; PKK terrorists responsible for Istanbul explosion

Photo : Cybersec_EU/Twitter


IN FOCUS
EU Cyber Defence Policy: Four takeaways

By Madhura S Mahesh

On 10 November, the European Commission and the High Representative introduced a Joint Communication on an EU Cyber Defence Policy. This policy aims to increase cyber defence capabilities either as an individual or with other EU members. The Commission referred to the recent cyber-attacks on energy infrastructure, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and government infrastructure and said that these incidents show the need for the EU to increase its cyber defence capabilities. 

Four takeaways
First, a closer and integrated civilian and military cooperation in cyberspace. The new defence policy looks to integrate both the civilian and military cyberspace of EU members to enhance cooperation between the two and strengthen cyber defence.  This is to manage and mitigate high-level cyber security threats and attacks. The policy hopes to introduce an EU Cyber Defence Coordination Centre (EUDCC) which will act as a central node of EU members' military cyberspace and help increase situational awareness within the EU defence community. An EU Cyber Commanders Conference will be launched headed by the European Defence Agency (EDA) to assist in the exchange of reliable and strategic information on cyber incidents. When it comes to civilian integration of cyberspace, the policy proposes Computer Security Incident Response Team and a Cyber Solidarity Initiative which will monitor and respond to various cyber-attacks on EU members. It will also look at a possible collaboration between cyber defence and other cyber communities at an operational level.
 
Second, increasing cyber resilience in the EU defence system. The armed force uses civilian infrastructures like transportation, energy and communication to assist in their day-to-day activities. Hence it is important to strengthen these to prevent a potential cyber-attack which will affect the working of the defence sector. The High Representative will propose non-legally binding recommendations to the defence sector on enhancing member states' cyberspace. The policy outlines a Cyber Resilience Act to set similar standards for cybersecurity in hardware and software products and components. The defence policy outlines the need to map out potential risks affecting EU civilian and military cyberspace.

Third, increase investments in cyber defence technologies. To reduce dependency on other countries outside the EU, the new policy proposes investments in research and development and manufacturing of cyber defence technologies. These new investments will help to identify the current missing links and help to patch them to create new defence capabilities in line with the policy in a coordinated and measurable manner. The Commission through the European Defence Fund will be increasing investments in the development of interoperable tools for cyberspace operations like incident response, defensive operations and information warfare in EU member states. The policy advocates for investment for sustaining state-of-the-art defence capabilities which will also include keeping up-to-date with new technologies and their use in cyber defence systems. Quantum technology is a major challenge to the cyber defence capabilities of a nation, the policy outlines how investment in new disruptive technologies will help better protect the nation from attacks. Under the new policy, the Commission will be launching a Cyber Skills Academy which will train workers in cyberspace on new technologies and build up the cyberspace workforce by training more professionals in cyber security.

Fourth, addressing cyber threats with integrated approach. While the policy majorly focuses on the integration of military and civilian cyberspace of EU members, it also proposes for EU members to collaborate with neighbours, international organisations and alliances like NATO to strengthen responses to cyber-attacks of similar nature. Established methods and responses to certain cyber-attacks faced by different EU members and their allies will help fastrack the response to potential attacks and mitigate the extent of the damage. For instance, with NATO the policy proposes for development of concepts and doctrines on cyber defence which will be compatible with the policies of NATO and the EU. The EU hopes to help Ukraine in building its cyber defence capability together with the US and other international partners to fight against any future Russian-led cyber-attack. The policy also outlines the EU’s motive to prevent any external cyber-attack from affecting the EU indirectly. It hopes to achieve this by helping allied countries and immediate neighbours in building up their cyber defence capabilities through the EU Common Foreign Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy. 

References
​​“Cyber Defence: EU boosts action against cyber threats,” ec.europa.eu, 10 November 2022
Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council: EU Policy on Cyber Defence,” eeas.europa.eu, 10 November 2022


EU’s Action Plan on Military Mobility 2.0: Three takeaways
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 10 November, European Commission Vice President Josep Borrell proposed the “Action Plan on Military Mobility 2.0,” as part of the security and defence package. The proposal comes as the security landscape is altering with Russian aggression. Borrell listing down the priority areas for improving Europe’s military capacity, announced the UKs decision to join the “Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) project” as part of the Action Plan.

Three takeaways
First, focus of the “Action Plan.” The initiative launched in 2017 has been revised and updated regularly by the European Council, Commission, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). It evolved in terms of military requirements, infrastructure projects, logistical capabilities to lessen the reaction time.  The key focus of the action plan is to improve the transport infrastructure to facilitate the movement of heavy military equipment, regularise such movement under less complex national regulations, to digitize the administering processes, and bring measures to protect such critical transport against hybrid threats.

Second, increased budget for smoother transport network. The Ukraine war has pushed the EU member states to increase their defence budget more than two per cent set by the NATO. Since 2008 financial crisis, the defence expenditures which were on a lull increased to 19.7 per cent, this changed in 2022 with EU allotting an exclusive budget of EUR 1.69 billion towards dual-use transport infrastructure project to revise the “trans-European transport network,” and simplify the customs regulations.

Third, European Defence Agency role in simplifying the cross-border movements. To ensure a faster movement of military from the west to the east of Europe, reducing the complex border checks is necessary for Europe. The 24 EU member states and Norway in the European Defence Agency Programme and the UK in the PESCO is modelled to bring the logistical joints together and reduce the reaction time. This can be done through multi-model transport corridor and transport nodes to enhance the connection and promote seamless military movement. The agency which provides ease of transport over surface and air, also aims to build a third cross-border movement to facilitate the maritime sector.

References
Security and Defence package: Remarks by High-Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell at the press conference,” EEAS, 10 November 2022
JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL: Action plan on military mobility 2.0,” ec.europa.eu, 10 November 2022
Defence Investment Gaps Analysis and Way Forward,” ec.europa.eu, 18 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 262 & 263
By Sai Pranav and Sandeep Ganesh

War on the Ground
On 13 November, Ukraine’s Deputy Head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, reported installation of concrete walls with barbed wires along the border with Belarus in the Volyn region. The reason given was to protect the border from Belarusian and Russian intrusion. He said that the concrete fences are not only installed in the Volyn region but also along the borders of the hostile states of Belarus and Russia. 


On 12 November, in his speech, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said that the war would continue even after the exit of the Russian troops in the Kherson city. Only negotiations or victory will end the war. He requested the ASEAN states to ensure that Russia does not disrupt the Ukrainian grain shipments to the global markets. He thanked Australia for its military aid of USD 440 million following a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the summit's sidelines.

On 12 November, in a facebook post, Khersonoblenergo Joint Stock Company, the electricity supplier for Kherson city, reported that the works for restoring electricity in the city will begin after the mandatory military permission is obtained. Kherson region which has been without electricity for a long time after the Russian attacks itscritical infrastructure has suffered the major damage. Khersonoblenergo, along with domestic and international energy companies, is trying to restore electricity in the war-torn Kherson region.

On 12 November, Kuleba tweeted on Twitterabout his discussion with Estonia’s Foreign Minister, Urmas Reinsalu. The discussion focused on coordinatingin building a special tribunal against Russia for war crimes. Kuleba expressed gratitude to the Estonian government for providing generators to Ukraine to mitigate its energy crisis.

On 11 November, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his video message announced the implementation of the EU’s “Solidarity Lanes” initiative. The initiative aims to find, establish and promote alternative routes for Ukrainian agricultural exports in the Black Sea, to ensure smoother transactions. It eliminates transport delays at the border between Ukraine and the EU to improve the logistics of goods. The EU pledged to allocate EUR 850 million, and the world bank announced EUR 100 million to back Ukraine’s grain exports. He added that Ukrainian investigator have discovered that Russia has committed over 400 war crimes and has uncovered the bodies of servicemen and civilians from the de-occupied Kherson region. His claims are yet to be verified.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 November, RT reported on Ukraine’s Novaya Kakhovka city’s Mayor, Vladimir Leontyev, comments on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam in Russian occupied Kherson region. According to Leontyev the dam suffered monumental damage to its infrastructure and could take a year or more to be repaired. Leontyev accused the Ukrainian forces of the attacks. Russia alleged Ukraine for using the US-made HIMARS missile system to target the dam. It also alleged that the main reason Ukrainian forces targeted the dam was to flood the region to destroy the infrastructure. In response, the Russian Defence Ministry stated that the troops withdrew from Kherson city due to fear of flooding from the attack on Kakhovskaya dam.

On 12 November, the Kherson region’s capital was announced by Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister, Alexander Fomin, as Genichesk, where the headquarters of major government agencies are located.Genichesk was made the temporary administrative capital of the Kherson region. The port city, which lies on theAzov Sea, is reputed for its resorts. The capital was assigned following the withdrawal of the Russian troops from the Kherson region. Hundreds of civilians were relocated to the right bank of the river.

On 12 November, the leader of a pro-Russian group in Zaporizhzhia, “We Stand With Russia” Vladimir Rogov, reported in TASS that there was a confirmation of a mercenary count from 40 countries fighting in the area near Zaporizhzhia. The count was estimated to be around 5,000 mercenaries, who were from Poland. Japanese, Australian, Canadian, French and Spanish-speaking mercenaries. Rogov believes that Ukraine will focus on Zaporizhzhia following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson city.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 12 November, Secretary of State for the US Anthony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba released statements before there meeting in Cambodia. Secretary Blinken expressed his delight after the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson and appreciated the remarkable courage of the Ukrainian armed forces. Reinsuring the United Sates support to Ukraine until the war is over. He expressed his concern over Russia brutalizing the energy infrastructure of Ukraine on ground. 

On 13 November, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence in its intelligence updated d the latest Defence Intelligence program in Ukraine. The Education Minister of Russia, Sergey Kravtsov, it mandatory for students to take military training starting in September 2023. This reprises a USSR-era practice which ended in 1993 would reinforce in Russia. The training includes contingencies for a chemical or nuclear attack, first aid and experience handling and firing Kalashnikov rifles. A training program is being drafted and the Russian Ministry of Defence supports the process, the draft will be completed by the end of 2022

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 November, India’s Minister of External Affairs, S Jaishankar, met Kuleba Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Foreign Minister they met on the side-lines of ASEAN-India summit. They discussed recent developments in the region, nuclear concerns and way to end the Russia’s war on Ukraine. Jaishankar reinstated the words of Prime Minister of India Shri Narender Modi that is not “an era of war” and a peaceful resolution could be reached with dialogue and diplomacy. 

On 13 November, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol, pledged to increase the volume of humanitarian aid delivered to Ukraine. Prez Yoon also highlighted that the invasion of Ukraine was a breach international law and a threat to the lives and rights of the Ukrainian people. Ukrinform, reported on the sale of 155mm artillery shells to the United States by South Korea, which is intended to further the supply of the Ukrainian forces. 

On 12 November, UN’s Secretary General Antonis Guterres, in his visit to Cambodia spoke about peace in Ukraine. He stated that Russia’s invasion was a violation of the UN Charter, and violated the country’s territorial integrity. He stressed the importance to create and keep the channel of dialog open which would be very helpful to re-establish relationship and maintain peace in the future based on the values of the UN charter, and peace based on international law.

References
Kyrylo Tymoshenko, “This is how the wall on the border of the Volyn region with Belarus is being built - a reinforced concrete fence with barbed wire.,” Telegram, 13 November 2022
Ukraine foreign minister says 'war goes on' after Kherson success,” The Strait Times, 12 November 2022
Khersonoblenergo Joint Stock Company, “"Khersonoblenergo" starts work with restoration of electricity in Khersoní,” Facebook, 12 November 2022
Dmytro Kuleba, “Ukraine, Estonia foreign ministers coordinate steps to create special tribunal,” Twitter, 12 November 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyi delivered a video message on the implementation of the EU initiative "Paths of Solidarity",” president.gov.ua, 11 November 2022
Damage to key dam from Ukrainian strikes revealed,” RT, 13 November 2022
Genichesk becomes Kherson Region’s temporary capital, official says,” TASS, 12 November 2022
Mercenaries from over 40 countries fighting near Zaporozhye - official,” TASS, 12 November 2022
Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Ukrainian foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Before Their Meeting.,” state.gov, 12 November 2022
Déclaration commune à l’issue de la réunion du 11 novembre à Paris,” diplomatie.gouv.fr, 11 November 2022
“Russia closes the Kerch Strait,” Denizhaber.net, 13 November 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 November 2022,” Twitter, 13 November 2022
Kuleba discusses support for Ukraine with foreign ministers of India and Oman,” Ukrinform, 13 November 2022 
“South Korean President vows increase in humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 13 November 2022 
“During visit to Cambodia, Secretary-General upholds the importance of a single global economy,” news.un.org, 12 November 2022 
Peter Kavinsky, “Latvia’s president called for the establishment of a special tribunal for Russia,” cablefreetv.org, 13 November 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, Madhura S Mahesh, and Sandeep Ganesh

DENMARK
Negotiations delay the formation of a new government
On 11 November, the Social Democratic party announced that the negotiations for forming a coalition government would extend till 24 November. The negotiation is between the parliamentary parties and North Atlantic mandate holders. The negotiation is led by Social Democrats’ acting Prime Minister, Mette Fredriksen. The initial discussion is on major political and social agendas. The discussion for next week entails the economy, reforms and the answer to tackling inflation. The week of 21 November will see a discussion on foreign and security policy and bilateral meetings with the four MPs of the Faroe Islands and Greenland. Fredriksen also wants to find an agreement on the 2024 budget, as the protracted negotiation following the election has resulted in a temporary state expenditure plan. (“No new Danish government expected for ‘at least two weeks’,” THE LOCAL dk, 11 November 2022)

FINLAND
Water pipelines break in Helsinki results in floods
On 13 November, Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority (HSY), the city’s authority that provides water and waste management services, announced that several pipes across the city broke, resulting in water entering driveways, properties, parking garages and business premises. A total of five pipe breaks were reported.  The streets of pipe breaks were Fleminginkatu, Boulevard, Hameentie, Rautammintie and Violankatu. The trunk line in Kallio, where the main pipeline is located, is said to have been broken due to a technical fault. The pipeline network is old and has been preserved well until the present. The first leak was reported on Fleminginkatu street. The Helsinki Road Transport Agency had to be closed in other parts of the city due to the waters from broken pipelines. Helsinki Regional Transport (HSL) expects the situation to continue till 14 November night. (Jaakko Muilu, Ilmo Ilkka and Milla Palkoaho, “The main line broke in Kallio on Sunday: Water flooded the city, collapsed streets,” Helsingin Sanomat, 13 November 2022)

MOLDOVA
Fresh anti-government protests emerge amid energy crisis
On 13 November, anti-government protests emerged in Chisinau amid the winter energy crisis and increasing inflation. The protestors called for the resignation of Moldova’s President Maia Sandu over the government’s supposed failure in handling the winter energy crisis. The shortage in energy supply comes after Russia reduced its gas supply to the country over its pro-western stance in the Ukraine conflict. (“Moldova anti-govt protesters return amid energy crisis,” abc News, 14 November 2022)

TURKEY
Istanbul explosion kills six; alleged perpetrator arrested
On 13 November, an explosion rocked Istiklal Avenue, Istanbul killing six people and 81others wounded. The attack took place on a crowded street and one of the dead was a government ministry worker and his daughter. Turkish President Recep Tayyip called the attack vile and said: “Efforts to defeat Turkey and the Turkish people through terrorism will fail today just as they did yesterday and as they will tomorrow.” While nobody has claimed responsibility for the explosion, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu on 14 November reported that the alleged perpetrator was arrested saying: "A little while ago, the person who left the bomb was detained by our Istanbul Police Department teams. According to our findings, the PKK terrorist organisation is responsible.” PKK or Kurdistan Worker’s Party is a Turkish designated terrorist organisation and has been responsible for a series of attacks in Istanbul and Turkey in 2015 and 2016. (“Six dead in Istanbul blast, presumed perpetrator arrested,” EURACTIV, 14 November 2022; “Istanbul explosion: Suspect arrested after 'vile attack',” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2022)
 
SLOVENIA
Slovenia elects first female president Natasa Pirc Musar
On 14 November, Slovenia elected their first female president Natasa Pirc Musar with around 54 per cent of the total votes polled. Musar, a lawyer ran as an independent candidate with the support of Slovenia’s centre-left government. The other nominee was former foreign minister Anze Logar who received around 46 per cent of the total votes polled. After the results were announced, Musar said: "Slovenia has elected a president who believes in the European Union, in the democratic values on which the EU was founded." Natasha Pirc Musar is a 54-year-old lawyer who specialises in media law and human rights. (“Natasa Pirc Musar: Slovenia elects lawyer as first female president,” BBC, 14 November 2022 and “Natasa Pirc Musar became the First Female President of Slovenia,” novinite.com, 14 November 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Riigikogu speaker Jüri Ratas discuss Estonia-Slovakia relations 
On 12 November, Estonian Riigikogu speaker Jüri Ratas during his visit met Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger and discussed their close relations to help build future joint cooperation projects in the digital economy, e-governance and cyber security. They also discussed the refugee influx from Ukraine to Estonia and Slovakia and the reconstruction efforts led by Estonia in Zhytomyr Oblast, Ukraine. (“Riigikogu speaker: Strong Estonia-Slovakia relations more crucial than ever,” news.err.ee, 12 November 2022)
 
Bulgaria experiencing unprecedented migrant pressure at the Bulgaria-Turkis border
On 13 November, Bulgaria’s Border Police Rosista Dimitrova said that the migrant pressure on the Bulgarian border with Turkey remains “unprecedented.” Dimitrova said prevented attempts at the Bulgarian-Turkish border in one week in September 2022 was the same as the entire of 2020 and prevented attempts the previous week is more compared to the entire of 2019. On the other hand, Bulgaria’s Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Demerdzhiev said that the migrant pressure on the border was decreasing referring to the drop in the number of migrants illegally entering Bulgaria every day from 1600 to 600. (“Bulgaria’s "Border Police" reports unprecedented Migrant Pressure,” novinite.com, 13 November 2022) 

ECONOMY
Estonian pensioners stay unaffected after stock market shocks
On 14 November, err reported that despite volatility in global stock markets, Estonian pensioners have not strayed away from the pension system. The report highlights how increased awareness and interest rates have led to more movement of funds, especially in the pension market. Despite this Estonia-based LHV Pensionifond has seen the best return in the market in the past 12 months. In the LHV fund, there are three tiers M, L and XL all of which have shown positive returns with L having approximately four per cent returns in 2022. Swedbank the leading bank where most second-pillar Estonian pensioners keep their money has reportedly seen a movement of funds from the bank to LHV in 2021. (“The decline in world markets does not deter Estonian pensioners,” err.ee, 14 November 2022)

 


12 November 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #356

Denmark Elections 2022: Election result, Campaign issues and challenge | War in Ukraine: Day 261

Recession predicted in the Eurozone; Lithuania to produce semiconductors; Spain replaces sedition law

Photo : Martin Sylvest/Ritzau Scanpix via AP


IN FOCUS
Denmark Elections 2022: Election result, Campaign issues and challenge
By Sai Pranav

Elections result
On 01 November, in the early election held in Denmark Social Democrats’ Mette Fredriksen won to serve as Denmark’s Prime Minister for the second time. The major parties in the election were the centre-left Social Democrats, the centre-right Liberals, the conservative Christian Democrats, and the centrist Moderates. The minimum threshold for a party to be part of Denmark’s parliament, Folketinget, is two per cent of votes. The left-leaning “red” bloc that Mette Fredriksen heads won 90 seats out of 179 seats, while the Social Democrats won 50 seats. The second party with a majority in the Folketinget is the Liberal Party (Venstre), headed by Jakob Ellemann-Jensen with 23 seats. Former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s newly formed moderates surprisingly increased with 16 seats becoming the third largest party. One of the primary contenders, Soren Pape Poulsen’s Christian Democrats, failed no seats.

Why did Denmark conduct an early election?
The minks population culling. During the COVID-19 pandemic in November 2020, Fredriksen decided that the government cull the mink population in Denmark, which resulted in her receiving backlash from the public after a report on the incident was released. The government killed over 15 million minks without legal basis due to the fear that a novel coronavirus strain might mutate and spread among humans. The mink killing affected the fur farm and Europe’s largest fur industry. It was later found to be illegal, and Fredriksen was held accountable by one of her allies in the coalition government even though it was proved that she was unaware of her action’s illegality. Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre) party’s leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen, one of Fredriksen’s allies, threatened to withdraw from the coalition unless she holds early snap elections, following the report on minks culling. The election was supposed to take place on June 2023. After the Social Liberal party’s compulsion, it was shifted to 01 November 2022. She was also criticized for having a centralized authority in her tenure.  

Four campaign issues
First, addressing climate issues. The voters are mainly concerned about climate change over other issues. The left had promised to introduce biodiversity law and a carbon tax on agriculture. On 30 October, Prime Minister Fredriksen and 50,000 people gathered for a “People’s Climate March” in Copenhagen. Climate has been one of the top most discussed issues in the election.

Two, migration policy. The Social Democrats have been promoting the “zero refugees” policy, and the government plans to set up an asylum centre in Rwanda to house refugees while their applications are being processed. The restrictive migration policies were introduced following Fredriksen taking the helm of the Social Democrats in 2019, stating that the measures were for state welfare. There is no opposition to the policy, as many parties agree with it.

Three, security concerns. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, Denmark faces more security threats from Russia than in the past three decades. In September and October, the Nord Stream pipelines exploded near the Danish economic zone in the Baltic Sea. The rumoured sabotage had instilled security concerns in the hearts of the people of Denmark. Fredriksen called for a nationwide advertising campaign with the slogan “Safely through uncertain times”.

Four, healthcare, inflation and energy crises. Fredriksen has been appreciated for leading Denmark through the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and energy price crisis without any major issues. She once again campaigned to do the same in the current scenario. To align herself with Rasmussen, she also concentrated on addressing healthcare reforms and mental health issues, which the moderates stresses in their agenda for a coalition.

Fredriksen’s Election challenge
Fredrikson’s call for political unity in Denmark. Fredriksen primarily campaigned on forming a broad coalition across the traditional left-right divide, creating a politically united government to stand against the current international geopolitical uncertainty. She had given her resignation to Queen Margrethe II to dissolve the current cabinet in the hopes of forming a new administration with a broader perspective. Fredriksen had reached out to the leader of the moderate, Rasmussen, to form a coalition that could act as a bridge between the left and the right after the election results were announced. However, the process may take a lot of time due to the disagreement between the left and the right. Fredriksen’s red bloc allies want to form a left-leaning coalition government instead of the broader one. There is a possibility that Fredriksen will be pressured into starting a left-leaning coalition by her allies, going against her campaign wishes.

References
Jon Henley, “Denmark election result keeps Social Democrats at the helm,” The Guardian, 02 November 2022
Share of votes in the parliamentary election in Denmark 2022,” statistic.com, 09 November 2022
Results of the Danish general election,” thedanishparliament.dk, 02 November 2022
Election 2022: Danes head to the polls with outcome in balance,” THE LOCAL dk, 01 November 2022
John Henley, “Danish election: PM may need new party’s support to stay in charge,” The Guardian, 01 November 2022
Denmark election: Mette Frederiksen's Social Democrats win with 'strongest backing in 20 years, ” euronews, 02 November 2022
Denmark election: Frederiksen's government hangs in the balance as it battles for centrist votes,” euronews, 02 November 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 261
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground

On 11 November, Russian troops shelled territories in  the Chernihiv region and Berslav district in the Kherson region. In Chernihiv, Operation Command “North” reported nine strikes of shelling was fired in Mykolaivka settlement.  The shelling did not damage any civilian infrastructure, military equipment nor caused any civilian or military personnel casualties. In Beryslav, the Kherson Regional police reported that the Russian the troops shelled with heavy artillery and hit civilian infrastructure  and were destroyed. The number of casualties has not been reported. 
 
On 09 November, in an interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that that the doors for peace talks and negotiations with Russia were “not closed,” and added that Russia had only issued ultimatums with no concrete efforts towards negotiations. Zelenskyy reiterated Ukrainian demands for the return of all occupied lands, rights, freedom, money, and most importantly justice, which according to him is not what the Russians want. 
 
On 11 November, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met  Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn in the side-lines of the ASEAN summit in Cambodia. The discussion focused on the demining assistance provided by Cambodia to Japan and included parameters like the specific actors involved in the project and the schedule of the operation. Kuleba added: “In the past, Cambodia suffered from war for a long time, and it has considerable experience in demining. That is, there is expertise, there is equipment, so we will involve them in solving our problems.”   


The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 November, Kherson Emergency Services reported that the Antonovsky Bridge was destroyed. The agency added: "Two spans of the bridge were destroyed." The Kherson government chairperson Sergey Eliseev initially denied that the bridge was destroyed on 11 November, but later war correspondent Alexander Kots presented footage of the destroyed bridge. He added that the destruction was ignored to the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank to the left bank of the Dnieper river. 
 
On 11 November, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that over 30,000 military personnel and 5,000 units of military armament and equipment had moved to the left bank of the Dnieper river. The military equipment that was in need of repair has also been moved to the left bank. The Ministry of Defence added that all military equipment was transferred with nothing was left behind. 
 
On 11 November, the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov reported that the Russian army’s counter-battery measure has destroyed a unit of US M777 towed howitzers in Kharkov region. Konashenkov reported on the destruction of 32 HIMARS rockets and five HARM anti-radar missiles in the Kherson region, LPR and DPR by the Russian air defence systems. He added that seven unmanned aerial vehicles were downed in LPR and DPR. InLPR a unit of Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers Akatsiya and an ammunition depot of the 28th mechanized brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces were destroyed.   


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 11 November, Hungary has been undertaking humanitarian efforts in Transcarpathia and other Western Ukrainian regions since the war began. Hungary’s Parliamentary State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Levente Magyar on his visit to Transcarpathia said: “Hungary is also providing assistance to Transcarpathia in the form of concrete institutional developments.” 
 
On 11 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused the EU for escalating the Ukraine war  and risking the economy through aid, and increased sanctions. In the summit of Turkic nations, Orban appreciated Turkey’s efforts to broker peace in the conflict with a special reference to the Black Sea Grain Deal which according to him reduced the threat of increased migration from vulnerable nations.   
 
On 11 November, Reuters reported that the German government has lent an extra EUR one billion from its 2023 budget to Ukraine, to battle against cyberattacks. The fundwould also entail the protection of civil society in the broader region, including the protection of journalists from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. 
 
On 11 November, Reuters reported that the US looks to buy South Korean artillery shells to send it to Ukraine. The purchase of 100,000 rounds of South Korean 155m artillery shells by the US is suspected to be funded by the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds. The US officials are unsure if the artillery shells will pass US territory while transporting it to Ukraine. This move was welcomed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and said that this decison to send weapons was “indispensible.” 


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 11 November, UN and Russian representatives met in Geneva to discuss the extension of the Black Sea Grain deal. UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths and UN trade chief Rebeca Grynspan met Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin and discussed about Russian demands to restructure the Black Sea Grain deal. UN Geneva spokeswoman Alessandra Vellucci said: “This discussion, it is hoped, should advance progress made in facilitating the unimpeded export of food and fertilizers originating from the Russian Federation to the global markets.” The Black Sea Grain deal is set to end on 19 November and after Russia withdrew from the deal on 29 October, this meeting is essential to ensure food security around the world and prevent a global food crisis. Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “..there is a mutual understanding on the part of our counterparts in the UN. Therefore, work is underway in this direction.” 
 
On 11 November, South Korea’s Defence Ministry reiterated its stance on not providing Ukraine lethal aid. This comes after reports emerged over the US  buying its artillery shells for Ukraine. In a statement, the South Korean Defence Ministry said that “confidential” negotiations are underway regarding the sale of ammunition but under the assumption that the US is the end user.  The Ministry added: “In order to make up for the shortage of 155mm ammunition inventories in the US, negotiations are ongoing between the US and Korean companies to export ammunition.” Since the conflict began, South Korea has not provided any lethal aid to Ukraine and has only provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. 
 
On 11 November, Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry reported that Cambodia in collaboration with Japan will be sending deminers to Ukraine to help train the troops to clear land mines placed by Russia. The Cambodian Mine Action Centre said that it would be sending the first team in December to Ukraine and the second team in early next year. Cambodia has previously collaborated with other war-torn regions to help with demining.  


References

Enemy shells Beryslav district in Kherson region with heavy artillery,” Ukrinform, 11 November 2022
Russians again shell border areas of Chernihiv region,” Ukrinform, 11 November 2022
Zelensky Says Open to Talks with Russia,” Kyiv Post, 11 November 2022
Dmytro Kuleba reported on the preparation of a tripartite demining project with Cambodia and Japan,” mfa.gov.ua, 11 November 2022
Emergency services confirmed the destruction of Antonovsky Bridge,” Lenta.ru, 11 November 2022
The Ministry of Defense named the number of Russian military personnel brought to the left bank of the Dnieper,” Lenta.ru, 11 November 2022
Russian army wipes out platoon of US M777 howitzers in Kharkov Region,” TASS, 11 November 2022
Russia’s air defenses down Ukraine’s 32 HIMARS, 5 HARM rockets in one day,” TASS, 11 November 2022
Hungary Extends Humanitarian Aid for Ukraine to Education,” Hungary today, 11 November 2022
Hungary Issues Warning Over EU's Involvement in Ukraine,” Tasnim News Agency, 11 November 2022
U.S. in talks to buy South Korean ammunition for Ukraine, official says,” Reuters, 11 November 2022
Germany allocates extra 1 bln euros to Ukraine cyber-defence, documenting war crimes,” Reuters, 11 November 2022
UN, Russia hold talks on extending wartime grain deal,” AP News, 11 November 2022
US to buy South Korea artillery shells ‘for Ukraine’,” Aljazeera, 11 November 2022 “Cambodia to send deminers to help train Ukrainians in clearing land mines,” The Japan News, 11 November 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, Madhura S Mahesh, and Sandeep Ganesh

FRANCE
France: National strategic review to focus on boosting the defence
On 9 November, the Secretariat-General for National Defense and Security (SGDSN) published its defence strategy report focusing on possible security threats in the Indo-Pacific, China, and 2030 way forward for France's defence. In the report, Russia is seen as an actor undermining the European security and its growing relations with China is observed as "strategic convergence." In terms of China, its aim to overtake the US as super power and weaken West's leadership in the international fora remains the goal. As per the report China's military made France pursue an assertive strategy in the Indo-Pacific, African states and Taiwan Strait. The defence strategy sets the standard to increase the budget of France's defence in 2023-24 with more investments towards hybrid strategies, more cooperation with the UK, and adaptation to Europe's maritime system.

LATVIA
Demographic swing continues in Latvia 
On 11 November, The Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia published its provisional data on its population, post covid the death rate in Latvia has come down significantly, yet the country’s population is on decline.There have been about 22,498 deaths registered from January to September, the registered number of births in the same period is 12,221. The birth rate is 8.2 per cent lesser than that of 2021 during the same time. Lativa had a population of 1.89 million in 2020, the population in 2021 was 1.87 million, down by 1.02 per cent in one years' time. Lativa’s population is equivalent to 0.02 per cent of the total world population. One of the reason behind the declining population is that the people from Latvia go to other affluent countries in EU to work there leaving this Baltic country with decreasing population, Latvia has a high mortality rate which adds years of life in the general population. Disregarding the drop-in birth rate, mortality remains high and is almost double the birth rate. (“Latvia's worrying demographic trends continue”, ENG.LSM.Iv, 11 November 2022

SPAIN
Pedro Sanchez changes the crime of sedition in the penal code to appease the Catalonians
On 11 November, Spain’s coalition government under Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez proposed to replace the sedition law, which had been in Spain’s penal code since 1822. The crime of sedition has put a lot of Catalin in prison. The move to change the bill that reclassifies sedition into “aggravated public disorder” sought to appease the people of the northeastern region of Catalonia following the conflict that stemmed from the failed independence attempt in 2017. Sanchez mainly looks to win the favour of Catalonia’s leftist ERC party to pass the 2023 budget in the parliamentary. The removal of the crime of sedition would allow Catalonians to vote in a referendum without any repressions. (“In nod to Catalonia, Spain's PM seeks to replace sedition in penal code,” Reuters, 11 November 2022)
 
REGIONAL
The European Commission predicts a recession in the eurozone in the last quarter of 2022
On 11 November, the European Commission released the latest economic forecast predicting that the eurozone will face recession in the winter as inflation steadily increases. The skyrocketing energy prices were found to be the main driver of prolonged inflation, which will increase it to 8.5 per cent in 2022 before crashing down to 6.1 per cent in 2023. The growth prediction for 2023 fell from July’s forecast of 1.4 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Germany is expected to perform the worst in 2023, with the economic output falling by 0.6 per cent. The Commission also predicts a slow economic output till the first quarter of 2023. The hike in energy prices, the cost of living crisis and inflation are expected to put most EU member states into recession in the last three months of 2022. The inflation is set to ease by the spring of 2023 in Europe. (“EU says eurozone set to fall into recession this winter,” Deutsche Welle, 11 November 2022)

Tough border controls inconvenience Slovakia with growing number of asylum seekers
On 10 November, tensions between Slovakia and the Czech Republic rose as the latter increased its border controls with its border with Germany, thus, increasing the number of refugees in Slovakia. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Eduard Heger took it to the EU to challenge the usage of border controls by the Czech Republic. Slovakia argues that the controls breached the EU’s principle of the visa-free Schengen zone. Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakusan confirmed that the meeting between Heger and the Czech Republic Prime Minister Petr Fiala resulted in the Czech agreement to relax the border controls for the locals. Heger and Fiala also agreed on speeding up the checks on the Slovakian and the Czech nationals. The Czech defended the border controls as a measure to mitigate the increased influx of refugees from Syria. (Radovan Stoklasa and Jason Hovet, “Czech border controls blocking migrants' route to Germany frustrate Slovakia,” Reuters, 11 November 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Turkey to represent the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit
On 11 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will represent the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit at Samarkand. The OTS members include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and Hungary are observer nations of the group. Erdogan has pushed for closer ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian countries for years and hopes to take advantage of the diminishing Russian influence in these ex-Soviet states to build closer relations. After the start of the Ukraine war, Central Asian countries especially Khazakistan have reached out to make new alliances to reduce dependency on Russia. (“Turkey seeks Central Asia inroads with Russia distracted,” EURACTIV, 11 November 2022)
 
Lithuania a next hotspot for semiconductor production
On 07 November, Taiwan announced its decision to invest EUR 10 million in building semiconductor chip technology in collaboration with Lithuania’s electronic manufacturer Teltonika. The head of Taiwanese representative office in Lithuania, Eric Huang said: “It is because Taiwan would like to work with Lithuania together to strengthen the resilience of our democratic supply chain in the face of coercion by autocracies." The deepening relations between Lithuania and Taiwan has been a bigger tension for the Chinese, Beijing also downgraded its relationship with Lithuania and banned imports after Taiwan opened a de facto embassy in its capital. Lithuania a former Soviet republic has a strong anti-China sentiment.  (“Taiwan to invest 10 mln euros towards chip production in Lithuania,” Reuters, 10 November 2022) 

 
 

 

 


11 November 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #355

War in Ukraine: Day 260 | US, UK, Spain vow to send air defence systems to Ukraine

The EU announces new energy package to Moldova; Putin will not attend the G20 summit; Greece begins gas exploration off the coast of Crete

Photo : ISW


War in Ukraine: Day 260
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 10 November, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba met ASEAN Secretary-General Dato Lim Jock Hoi to discuss on improving the relations between Ukraine and Southeast Asia. The focus of the discussion was on trade, food security, and digital transformation to boost the economic and political cooperation.

On Russia’s announcement of withdrawal from Kherson, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed doubt despite the UK intelligence stating the strain in the re-supply routes of Russia. Zelenskyy said: “The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make 'gestures of goodwill.”

The Moscow
Claims by Russia

On 10 November, RT reported on the remarks of the Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on developing a collective effort to security and increasing narratives about the war in respective terms. It related how Russia’s argument and the minister’s coincided with preventing military activity of NATO in 1997. On the same day, a spokesperson from the Wagner Group reported on attacking positions of Russian forces in the northeast of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and western Donetsk areas.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 November, the White House declared a new military package of USD 400 million, which will include Hawk and US Avenger air defence systems and Stinger missiles. According to Pentagon it will send HIMARS, “High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles,” grenade launchers and demolition equipment along with the air defence system.

Spain has also vowed to send two Hawk missile launchers and Aspide surface-to-air missile system after receiving request from the NATO. According to Spain’s Defence Ministry, it is currently training 21 Ukrainian soldiers in handling 105/14 howitzers and of which it reported that 19 had skilled in learning to use the Aspide air-defence system. It is also estimating to train 400 more in the coming months.

The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in his conversation with Zelenskyy assured to increase the military aid by sending 1,000 surface to air missiles, and 25,000 “cold winter kits” for the Ukraine troops to help through the winter.

On 10 November, the Norwegian government promised to provide NOK 1.5 billion to the UK led international fund for Ukraine to help it acquire more military equipment from the defence industry. Till now Norway has allotted NOK 4.4 billion in total as military support to Ukraine

The Global Fallout 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 10 November, Amnesty International reported on Russia’s transfer of civilians from its occupied areas as war crimes and accused Russian forces for forcibly moving the people and for separating the children from their families. In the interview it conducted amongst 88 civilians residing in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia  found that the deported people were subject to detention, torture and ill-treatment. According to the secretary general: “Separating children from their families and forcing people hundreds of kilometers from their homes are further proof of the severe suffering Russia's invasion has inflicted on Ukraine's civilians.” On the same day, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva reported on Belgium’s transfer of EUR 4.96 million as aid to Ukraine’s economy.

References
"FM Kuleba meets with ASEAN Secretary-General," Ukrinform, 10 November 2022
"Belgium transfers almost €5M to IMF’s account for Ukraine,"
"Spain will send more Hawk, more generators and a battery of 105mm howitzers to Ukraine," Infodefensa, 10 November 2022
"PM call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 10 November 2022," Gov.UK, 10 November 2022
"Norway to contribute approximately NOK 1,5 billion to British-led Ukraine fund," regjeringen.no, 10 November 2022
"India presents its vision of the world order," RT,10 November 2022
"RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 10," ISW, 10 November 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, and Madhura S Mahesh

FINLAND
Ministry of Foreign Affairs grants EUR 13.6 billion as humanitarian aid 
On 10 November, Finland pledged to grant EUR 13.6 billion in humanitarian assistance to vulnerable people in crisis. Finland is granting support to World Food Programme (WFP) to alleviate food insecurity in Afghanistan, to the UN Refugee Agency (UNCHR) to protect Rohingya and deal with their refugee crisis in Myanmar and Bangladesh, to the ICRC to restore damaged water supply facilities in Syria, to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine Refugees in the near east and Lebanon, and to the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) which enables to respond to an underfunded crisis quickly. The total humanitarian aid Finland granted in 2022 amounts to EUR 120 million. (“Finland to grant humanitarian assistance to protracted crises,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 10 November 2022)

Finland government in clash with the EU’s nature restoration laws 
On 09 November, Finland’s government responded to the interpellation submitted by the opposition parties regarding the nature restoration law proposed by the European Commission. According to the government, the nature restoration law proposal costs Finland around EUR 930 million. The proposal undermines the Finnish forest policy and asks it to spend more than necessary for biodiversity and environment conservation. Finland is committed to preserving its environment on its own terms. The coalition government agreed that the revised response should be that the law should reduce the cost significantly or let the member states have freedom and flexibility in restoration measures. Many opponents argued that Finland should have taken a negative stance from the beginning of the proposal’s introduction. (“Marin: Finland can vote against restoration law unless its interests are protected,” Helsinki Times, 10 November 2022)

Divide over the Sami Parliamentary Act amongst the coalition government
On 10 November, Finland’s Centre party of the coalition government opposed the Sami Parliamentary Act which was introduced by Prime Minister Sanna Marin introduced in the parliament. The law caused division within the government. The Sami Assembly Act does not specify who can vote and who can run for office in the Sami self-governing body. The Act raises an issue of non-Sami people overtaking the seats in the Sami self-governing body and how it can affect the self-government of municipalities of Northern Lapland. The Center’s Lapland MP Markus Lohi requested an amendment to the Sami Assembly Act as the current version might lead to a human rights issue. (Hannu Tikkala, Eelis Rytkonen and Linda Tammela, “The government was torn apart by an open dispute over the Sámi parliamentary law - Markus Lohi of the center, who opposes the bill: "This is a human rights issue",” yle.fi, 10 November 2022)

REGIONAL
Sweden’s Foreign Minister to visit Turkey
On 10 November, Sweden’s Foreign Minister, Tobias Billstrom, said that he would visit Ankara to discuss Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession. Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO bid was blocked by Turkey. Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, threatened to block the Nordic countries’ bid if they did not extradite PKK individuals residing in them and share information about them. Sweden’s Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, met with Erdogan, coaxing him to remove Turkey’s block on the Nordic countries’ NATO bid. Billstrom believes that talks are possible, and when all conditions are fulfilled, the Turkish parliament will be ready to ratify. (“Swedish foreign minister to go to Turkey ‘shortly’ in Nato bid,” THE LOCAL se, 10 November 2022)
 
EU aid towards coal regions failed to incite climate transition 
On 10 November, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said that the funds given to coal-producing regions did not result in an effective climate transition. The ECA looked into the data of EUR 12.5 billion in funds given to  Germany, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Spain between 2014-2022 for climate transition. ECA outlined how the funds were being directed to ventures such as developmental upgrades in health and transport infrastructure, and broad quality life projects rather than “green” energy transition.  The ECA added that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has forced countries to adopt more amount of coal as it is a cheaper alternative. The ECA stressed the risk of investing in such endeavours without sufficient evidence that it is working. (“EU auditors say aid for coal regions failed to spur climate transition,” EURACTIV, 10 November 2022)
 
Slovakian Prime Minister to visit Czech Republic amid border tensions
On 10 November, the Cezch government reported that Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger will visit Prague on 17 November. Heger said that “free movement is a fundamental advantage” of the Schengen area and that he “expressed hope” that upcoming talks would “be fruitful.” Czech Republic’s Interior Minister Vít Rakusan expressed that the meeting will not lead to the lifting of blockades in the borders. Rakusan added that the situation is “regrettable” and that the migration from Slovakia to the Czech Republic has “worked without any intervention from the Slovak side.” He went on to criticise Slovakia by pointing out the efficiency in identifying illegal migrants at the border between the two when the Czech were in control which. (“Czechia Forced to React to the Situation on the Czech-Slovak Border,” Hungary Today, 10 November 2022)

The EU promises a energy support package of EUR 250 million to Moldova
On 10 November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a support package for Moldova to cope with the rising energy prices at a press conference along with President Maia Sandu in Moldova. She said that the EU would pledge EUR 200 million for energy security, half divided as grants and the rest as loans. The package would also include an additional EUR 50 million in financial support to Moldova. Moldova Support Platform will be mobilized on 21 November in the Paris meeting to help with international donations. Russia invading Ukraine resulted in Moldova suffering energy supply disruption from Gazprom, from whom Moldova relied on natural gas imports. The protests against the pro-Western government have been increasing in Moldova, blaming them for the surge in energy prices. Addressing the internal conflicts and energy prices remains a priority for the EU candidacy country. (“EU announces energy support package for Moldova,” Deutsche Welle, 10 November 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 
Hungary and Uzbekistan to increase strategic cooperation
On 10 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held discussions about economic and energy cooperation at the summit of the Turkic Council in Samarkand. Orban mentioned that Hungary is “struggling” in the current war and sanction crisis, and wants to hold on to its “economic impetus” and said that he wants to increase the intensity of cooperation with Uzbekistan. Further, he added that Hungary would increase scholarship grants for Uzbek students in Hungary from 120 to 170, yearly. Mirziyoyev welcomed the move and said that Uzbekistan will be “given every assistance” to make their investments productive. (“Hungary Intensifies Strategic Cooperation with Uzbekistan,” Hungary Today, 10 November 2022)
 
Romania receives two loans from the US to build new nuclear reactors
On 10 November, Romania’s Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă announced that they will be building two new nuclear reactors at the  Cernavoda atomic power plant. Ciucă added that this was possible because of the loans given by the US under 25 strategic partnerships between Romania and the US. This gave Romania access to American nuclear CANDU 6 technology in 2020. The first loan of USD 50 million will be used in the preliminary work phase which will finish in 2025. The two reactors will be constructed with the help of a second loan of USD 3 billion by 2030. The Cernavoda plant is owned by Nuclearelectrica and accounts for 18 per cent of the total energy produced in Romania. Through the new reactors, Ciucă hopes to increase its energy independence and added: “Romania is taking important steps towards energy independence through clean technology, which is an alternative solution for reducing harmful emissions.” (“Romania To Build Two New Nuclear Reactors with US Technology,” BalkanInsight, 10 November 2022)

Sergey Lavrov replaces Putin to attend the G20 meeting in Bali
On 10 November, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and spokesperson for Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs, Jodi Mahardi, confirmed the absence of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in the upcoming G20 gathering in Bali. Lavrov will represent Putin at the meeting. Putin is not expected to face the Western leaders in the G20 meeting, including the US President, Joe Biden. Lavrov suggested that there is a possibility of Putin appearing virtually. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo has stated that Russia was welcome to attend. However, he noted that there is a possibility for tensions to rise between the West and Russia. He had also invited Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to the summit. He is expected to appear virtually. (Patrick Wintour, “Vladimir Putin will not attend G20 summit in Bali, officials confirm,” The Guardian, 10 November 2022)
 
ENERGY
Gas exploration kicks off in Crete
On 10 November, the Greek Minister of Energy and Environment Kostas Skrekas said that the country has started its gas exploration, beginning with seismic surveys in offshore areas in the west and southwest of Crete. Skrekas said that the “ship has begun” and that it is laying cables at this time. The surveys are conducted by the ExxonMobil/HelleniQ Energy joint venture that has rights in the area with the Sanco Swift vessel. He underlined that the area they are surveying may be “the last hope” that the oil and gas extraction industry has for finding a large natural gas field in the region of Eastern Europe. The exploratory drilling of the area will continue till the end of 2026, followed by the exploitation of those deposits in 2027, given that the results are “encouraging.” (“Greece Begins Gas Exploration Off Crete,” Greek Reporter, 10 November 2022) 


01 November 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #346

EU member states exit Energy Charter Treaty: Three reasons | War in Ukraine: Day 250

Photo : Kremlin.ru


EM Comment
By Sai Pranav

EU member states stand against Energy Charter Treaty: Three reasons
On 21 October, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of France from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) since the charter did not align with the Paris agreement and its climate goal. Previously Russia withdrew in 2009, and Italy in 2016. Spain, Poland and Netherlands have submitted a proposal to withdraw from the treaty. Germany and Belgium are next in line to withdraw from the treaty following France’s exit. Out of the 53 signatories, only European states are trying to pull out of the ECT, while the African and Central Asian countries and Japan are yet to indicate their stance.

What is Energy Charter Treaty?
The ECT is a treaty signed in 1994 in Lisbon introduced the capitalist market model in the former Soviet Union countries. It came into effect in 1998 aimed to strengthen the cross-border cooperation between the international countries on energy. The primary objective was to exploit the fossil fuel-rich former Soviet countries. The treaty permits energy investors to sue a country’s government if it introduces policies that might affect their future revenue. Any policies against fossil fuels are taken to court by the investors fearing loss of their investment. Fossil fuel investors levy pressure on the national governments to continue with the usage of non-renewable sources, thus slowing down the transition to green energy for these countries. The EU countries pointing are attempting to withdraw from the treaty. However, the UK and Switzerland are keen on staying in the treaty. They have not responded to the exit of the EU countries.

Three reasons
First, incompatibility with the European Green Deal. The European States have a goal of being climate-neutral by 2050. However, the treaty does not allow the countries to transit into green energy and renewable resources. Fossil fuel investors have been placing lawsuits against countries which recognize policies that look to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. The investors blame the government policies for their future losses. The litigations hinder the EU states from trying to reduce their carbon-emission levels. The usage of fossil fuels will only increase the level of greenhouse gases emission into the atmosphere, thereby causing more climate change issues. The companies have caused the renewable energy transition in Europe to slow down and are responsible for the increasing carbon footprints in Europe. The treaty risks climate goals and offers more protection to the fossil fuel industry. 

Second, fear over lawsuits and the sunset clause. Fossil fuel firms have subjected the countries that have implemented policies that affect their future income to litigation in which they are to pay huge compensations. Thereby creating a concern amongst the countries over their net-zero goals to become subject to multimillion lawsuits. In 2021, a German energy company RWE filed a lawsuit against the Netherlands government for EUR 1.4 billion in damages due to the Dutch passing a law to phase-out coal. The treaty has a sunset clause which makes a country vulnerable to lawsuits for 20 years even if they had exited from the treaty. The EU proposed a modernization law which made the countries vulnerable to lawsuits for ten years if they had received it during their stay at the treaty and one year if they received it after they had withdrawn. An example of the sunset clause is the UK oil firm Rockhopper Exploration receiving EUR 210 million in compensation from Italy’s government for banning offshore drilling. Rockhopper had said it planned to invest EUR 33 million in an oilfield project. Italy had to pay compensation six years after its exit from the treaty.

Third, the EU greenhouse gas emission rate and climate change. The restriction caused by fossil fuel investors allows the EU countries and those part of the treaty to use non-renewable resources, ultimately leading to higher carbon emission rates and global warming along with climate change. According to the European Commission’s JRC Science for Policy 2022 report, the EU member states had their total fossil CO2 emission increase by 6.5 per cent in 2021 compared to 2020. Countries trying to exit from the treaty or have already withdrawn have a high CO2 emission rate in 2021. The figures in 2021 suggest that Germany has the largest CO2 emission, with 24 per cent in the EU, followed by Poland at 11.6 per cent, Italy at 11.5 per cent, France at 10.9 per cent and Spain at 8.4 per cent. The figures show that the fossil fuel usage by the governments that are being pressured by the investors due to the treaty has also contributed to the emission rate of the countries. Carbon emission has also contributed to climate change. The impact of climate change was visible in 2022 across Europe. Europe faced one of the worst droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and flash floods across the continent, especially the southern and western parts. Spain, France, and Germany suffered severe droughts, heatwaves and wildfires. Poland also suffered drought and heat waves. Europe saw the highest temperature recorded and monster wildfires. These has raised concerns amongst the scientific community to have caused due to increased use of fossil fuels and drastic impact on climate change. With the treaty has indirectly and directly being responsible for climate change impact in Europe, resulting in the EU member states to break away from the treaty to achieve their net-zero and climate-neutral goal by 2050.


War in Ukraine: Day 250
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 31 October, Ukraine’s Naval Forces of the Armed Forces reported on elimination of Russian infantry fighting vehicles and an ammunition cache. Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the launch of 44 cruise missiles launched from the Volgosonsk area and the northern part of the Caspian Sea by Russia on key infrastructure.

On the same day, Kharkiv’s Regional Military Administration, Head Oleg Synehubov highlighted how Russia is fortifying its position along the 315 kilometres-shared border by increasing construction underway to build more defence structures. 

On 31 October, the Ukraine's Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov reported that 12-grain ships had left Ukraine ports. Kubrakov said that the 40 ships were examined by 10 inspection teams from Turkey and the UN to continue the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The vessels which left Ukraine contained 40,000 tonnes of gain to Ethiopia. Kubrakov added that four additional vessels inspected in Istanbul have departed to Ukrainian ports. The ships were inspected by delegations of Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 31 October, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "In conditions when Russia speaks about impossibility of guaranteeing safe shipping in indicated areas, such deal certainly can hardly be implemented. It acquires a different nature, much more risky, dangerous and non-guaranteed." He along with the Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev reiterated Russia’s commitment to helping poor countries. Patrushev said that Russia is ready to compensate for the shortage that rises due to it pulling out of the Grain Deal at their expense. Peskov reiterated the issue of how under the deal the poor countries received only a minor share of the exports and that the majority of it went to Europe.

On 31 October, Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on the achievements of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. Konashenkov reported that in Kherson the forces destroyed a German Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery gun, five combat armored vehicles, and seven motor vehicles and killed 70 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries. In the Donetsk region where Russian forces are engaged in active operations, 60 Ukrainian personnel, a tank, two combat armored vehicles and two motor vehicles were eliminated. 

Konashenkov reported that the Russian Armed Forces attacked the targets using air-and-sea- based long-range precision weapons and said that all of the intended targets were hit. He also reported that four Ukrainian army ammunition depots were destroyed in Kherson and DPR and eight army command posts were destroyed in the Zaporozhye and Nikolayev Region. Konashenkov reported that the air defence forces had stopped four HIMARS and Olkha rockets and seven HARM anti-radar missiles in the Kherson Region. Lastly, he added that the Forces had shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in LPR, DPR, Kherson and Kharkov regions.   

On 31 October, Russia’s Chairman of the Arctic Council’s Senior Officials Committee Nikolay Korchunov dismissed the claims of US Department of State Counselor Derek Chollet regarding the operation of the Arctic Council. Korchunov said that the Council can operate without Russia groundless as the Council only makes decisions with the consensus of all the member states. He also said that while most projects under the Council are implemented by two-three members, for the larger sustainable development of the Arctic regions all the eight members are required to effectively make the right decisions. Korchunov reiterated that sustainable development of the region is the main goal of the Russian presidency in the Arctic Council.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 31 October, the UK Ministry in its intelligence update reportes that since mid-October Russia has deployed to the front lines several thousand newly mobilized reservists and the majority of them were ill-equipped to fight. The regular Russian combat units are equipped with 5.45-millimetre AK-74M or AK-12 rifles compared to the 7.62-millimetre AKM. The Ministry of Defence suspects that Russia will have to deploy two types of small arms ammunition to the front lines due to the new integration of reservists. The Ministry said that it will likely complicate Russia’s strained logistics system.    

On 31 October, AP News reported on the increasing inflation and slowing economy in Europe. It highlights how inflation rates hit a new high in 19 countries whose currency is the euro. Eurostat reported that annual inflation for 2022 was 10.7 per cent which is a revision from the 9.9 per cent projection in September. This is being attributed to the unnatural gas and electricity prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The hike in gas prices is a result of the Ukraine conflict where Russia slowed down the supply of gas to Europe. This forced the European nations to buy from the US and Qatar where liquefied gas is more expensive. These high prices have also affected the prices of industrial goods like steel and fertiliser making them more expensive or unprofitable to produce. Consumers are spending more on essential necessities like food and fuel and utility bills. Eurostat reported that food, alcohol and tobacco prices have risen by 13.1 per cent and that energy prices increased 41.9 per cent compared to 2021. The highest inflation rates according to Eurostat have been seen in Latvia (21.8 per cent), Lithuania (22 per cent) and Estonia (22.4 per cent). The article looked at how post-pandemic growth projected at 0.8 per cent slipped to 0.2 per cent in July-September 2022. 

On 31 October, Norway announced that it will be increasing the Norwegian Armed Forces’ readiness. This was announced by Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. The level of readiness will be shifting from ‘normal situation’ phase zero to phase one. Gahr Støre added that this change will be in line with the phase in NATO’s joint planning framework. The shift is scheduled to happen on 01 November under the guidance of the Norwegian Chief of Defense. The NRK reported that Norway is taking this step-in light of the Nord Stream gas pipeline attacks, the Ukraine war and a supposed increase in Russian intelligence in the country.     

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 31 October, the Energy Ministers of Saudi Arabia and UAE backed the OPEC oil cuts at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that these cuts were not done to support anyone or to take any sides and that: “We don’t owe it to anybody but us. It was done for us, by us, for our future, and we need to commit ourselves to that.” UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei reiterated bin Salman’s stance and added that the UAE and other OPEC+ members are keen on keeping up the oil supply to meet the requirements of the world but claimed that they are not the only oil producers in the world. al-Mazrouei said that the OPEC members are “only a phone call away if the requirements are there” to increase production but said that this might not be anytime soon.

References
Marines destroy enemy IFV, ammunition cache, 25 invaders,” Ukrinform, 31 October 2022  
Ukrainian troops fighting for liberation of 24 settlements in Kharkiv region,” Ukrinform, 31 October 2022  
Russian terrorists again massively attacked Ukraine. Their target is not military facilities, but civilian critical infrastructure.,” Telegram, 31 October 2022
Twelve grain ships leave Ukrainian ports,” Ukrinform, 31 October 2022 
“Massive attack” by Russia on Ukraine Energy Facilities,” Kyiv post, 31 October 2022 
Grain deal can hardly be implemented without Russia — Kremlin,” Tass, 31 October 2022   
Russia ready to help the poorest countries after grain deal suspension — Kremlin,” Tass, 31 October 2022  
Kremlin trusts Defense Ministry Britain was behind attack on Black Sea Fleet,” Tass, 31 October 2022  
Russian forces wipe out German PzH 2000 artillery system in Ukraine operation,” Tass, 31 October 2022  
Diplomat castigates ‘groundless’ US claims that Arctic Council can operate without Russia,” Tass, 31 October 2022 
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 October 2022,” Twitter, 31 October 2022 
Inflation hits new record in Europe, slowing economy,” AP News, 31 October 2022 
BREAKING: Norway increases Armed Forces’ level of readiness,” euroweekly, 31 October 2022 
Turkey to Continue Efforts to Ease Global Food Crisis, Erdogan Says,” Tasnim News Agency, 31 October 2022
Saudi, UAE back OPEC cuts as US envoy warns of ‘uncertainty’,” AP News, 31 October 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, Madhura S Mhesh, and Sandeep Ganesh

NORWAY
Lula’s victory resumes Norway’s assistance in Amazon rainforest conservation
On 31 October, THE LOCAL no reported on Norway’s Environment Minister Espen Barth Eide announcement on resumption of collaboration of Norway with Brazil’s government to save the Amazon rainforest from deforestation. Norway would again send the Amazon protection subsidies that were paused due to the far-right Brazillian leader, Jair Bolsonaro, becoming the country’s President in 2019. In the recent election, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won, making Norway reopen its friendly relations with Brazil. Bolsonaro encouraged deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, increasing it by 70 per cent. Norway has been a major supporter of the conservation of the Amazon forest. The reelected Lula promised to fight against Brazil's climate crisis and deforestation, making Norway resume its aid to the South American country. (“Norway to resume aid halted to Brazil over deforestation,” THE LOCAL no, 31 October 2022)

ITALY
Meloni replaces Draghi’s reforms after forming the government
On 31 October, Italy’s new Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, changed the reforms that the previous government of Mario Draghi introduced. She called Draghi, and Giuseppe Conte had taken an ideological approach with no scientific evidence. She scrapped the rule that health workers should have mandatory vaccines and reinstated them to their job. Her opposition, the centre-left, criticized her for rewarding anti-vaxxers as her first reform. She delayed Draghi’s justice front reform, stating that the measure would paralyze Italy’s judicial system. She said that the faster judicial proceeding reform did not have the resources or the instrument to make them work, resulting in the collapse of Italy’s judicial system. Her opposition criticized her for delaying the process, saying that the reform would determine Italy obtaining the EU’s post-pandemic fund. However, Italy’s union of judges and prosecutors welcomed the postponement stating that they needed time to reorganize court proceedings. (Angelo Amante and Emilio Parodi, “Italy delays EU-required justice reform, scraps vaccine mandate for medics,” Reuters, 31 October 2021)

THE UK
Suella Braverman defends the UK’s refugee treatment
On 01 November, the UK’s Home Secretary Suella Braverman defended the country’s treatment of asylum seekers at the refugee centre in Southern England. She said that it was an “invasion” of refugees at the overcrowded refugee centres. Refugees who crossed the English Channel were placed in Manston, a former airfield in the country’s southeast, following an incident involving gasoline bomb attacks, in which the perpetrator committed suicide later. The Manston refugee centre was noted to be overcrowded with 3,000 people, while it can house only half of the present residents. Braverman’s own conservative MPs criticize her actions for managing the refugees in horrible conditions. The UK faced an increase in refugees through the English Channel, with around 40,000 people having made the journey to the island country in 2022. (“UK home secretary complains of migrant 'invasion',” Deutsche Welle, 01 November 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
50 countries sign a statement against human rights violations in China
On 31 October, Finland joined 49 other countries in signing a statement that condemned China for violating human rights in the Xinjiang region in the discussion of the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly. China was said to have conducted human rights violations by torturing, raping and forcing to give up the language and religion of people from Uighurs and other minority Muslim groups. China was also accused of having alleged camps for the minorities in the Xijiang region. China has rejected the accusation by the 50 countries stating that it was the West’s political tool against it. The discussion on the Xinjiang report in the UN has not progressed yet as China has disagreed to discuss the content of the report. (“Finland and 49 other countries condemn China's human rights violations in Xinjiang in a joint statement,” yle.fi, 01 November 2022)

North Macedonia and Bulgaria launches railway construction project 
On 29 October, The construction was launched by the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Galab Donev and Republic of North Macedonia Prime Minister Dimitar Kovachevski. The EU financing the construction of this railway project, will spend half a billion euros to connect Kumanovo and Belyakovce in North Macedonia with the Bulgarian border. This would boost the trading partnership and the trade exchange is expected to reach EUR one billion by 2023. (“The Construction of a Railway Section between North Macedonia and Bulgaria has been Launched”, Novinite.com, 30 October 2022.) 
    
Estonia and Latvia to build a giant wind farm to boost energy production 
On 28 October,  Estonia’s Sorve peninsula area is getting geared up for this hybrid offshore wind farm project, "Elwind." The total capacity of this project will be 700MW-1GW and is expected to provide about 3TWh of energy per year. Improving energy security and lowering prices, would also help Estonia and Latvia from reducing the usage of fossil fuels for energy. This grand project will be operational by 2030. (“Latvia, Estonia choose location for giant wind farm”, Centraleuropeantimes(CET), 31 October 2022.) 

  


31 October 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #345

US Inflation Reduction Act 2022: Four issues for Europe | War in Ukraine: Day 248 & 249

Photo : Kremlin.ru


EM Comment
By Padmashree Anandhan 

Putin’s address in the Valdai International Discussion: Six takeaways
On 27 October, the Valdai International Discussion Club held its regular conclave in Moscow on - A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone. The four-day meeting was attended by representatives from different fields from Russia and 40 countries across the globe, including Afghanistan, China, France, Germany, India, Kazakhstan, China, the US, and Iran. The key highlight was the address of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin; he discussed the changing liberal ideology, the US model of international order, Russia’s stand on the world order, Ukraine’s statehood, nuclear policy, and the energy sector.

Six takeaways
First, focus on dominance as a rule for the West. In the address, Putin highlighted the aggressive nature of the West, which has escalated the Ukraine war, and the situation in Taiwan destabilized the food security and energy markets. He termed the cultural value claimed by the West as “Cancel culture,” and criticized it for showcasing itself as a “guardians of liberalism and progress” but it only removes the other existing cultures, and restricts free thoughts in economics and politics. Putin pointed out how under “new global interdependence” the West role-plays monopoly in setting in the financial and technological sectors to practise the Western model of globalization and dominance in the global economic and political fora. Apart from this, he also brought out the need for new social models and the rights of Asia, Islamic states, and monarchies of the Persian Gulf to have their socio-political system. He criticized the West on the same, stating it suffered from a “doctrinal crisis of the neoliberal American-style model of international order,” which provides no space for progress and contradicts the multipolar world by preserving its dominance.

Second, emphasis on traditional values over liberal ideologies. On the liberal ideology, Putin pointed to the changing nature of liberalism, where classic liberalism, which was once seen as freedom for a person to think and act, is now seeing enemies within the said open society and wanting to restrict the freedom of the enemies. He accused Western ideologists and politicians of making the world believe that there was no alternative to democracy since the colonial period while it rejected all other forms of government. According to Putin, the West’s way of undermining the “liberal rules based order,” has only resulted in trade wars, sanctions, embargoes, colour revolutions, and coups. On the same, he said: “They killed Soleimani, an Iranian general. You can think whatever you want about Soleimani, but he was a foreign state official. They killed him in a third country and assumed responsibility.” Criticizing the western liberal order, he focused on the importance of the emerging neo-liberal ideas and highlighted its unique nature in terms of culture and history. Giving the examples of traditional societies such as East, Latin America, Africa, Eurasia, and minorities within the West, he stressed that the traditional values, and cultural identity they hold must be respected in the interest of the people, and civilization than being overpowered by the neoliberal elites.

Third, Russia’s approach as independent and inclusive. Highlighting Russia’s efforts to build collective security with the West, Putin expressed that the West always stood against cooperation and supported nurturing of terrorists in Russia. He said that Russia’s aim was not to challenge or replace the Western domination or the Western elites, but to uphold its right to exist and develop. The major plan is to broaden the space for other countries, increase interaction with neighbors and pave way for an economic multipolar world order, but he accused the West of being the barrier to its development and pushing it to become a tool to achieve its geopolitical goals. He later brought out how Russia has been successful in strengthening its economy, dealing the internal and external terrorism, and traditionally developing its foreign technology policy to provide a platform by creating an industry by building plants, training personnel in other countries to create competencies rather than the West’s approach to bankrupt the firms and deprive them of any advancement.

Fourth, on Ukraine’s statehood. On the lines of achieving Russia’s geopolitical goals, Putin highlighted how NATO was fortifying the Donbas region in the last eight years and how Ukraine’s statehood was shaped by Bolsheviks giving away “Malorossiya (Little Russia), the entire Black Sea region, and all of Donbas” (Russian historical lands) without the consent of the people to the nationalist-minded Bolsheviks. After the Bolsheviks, former leader Joseph Stalin joined Polish, Hungarian, and Romanian territories into Ukraine which became its sovereignty. With Poland’s influence gaining ground, language change began, ethnic Russians and Russian Orthodox Christians who wanted to join back Russia were put off by the European under the “divide and conquer rule,” which according to Putin became the first step of Europe to divide Russian unity. He said: “It is all part of our history. But it is also a historical fact that Russians and Ukrainians are essentially one ethnicity.”

Fifth, possibility for Russia to use the nuclear weapon, Putin’ criticised, the US, the UK for being on the front to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and being provocative in uniting the international countries to form collective defence. Putin stressed that Russia’s statement was only a hint and not a direct threat to use nuclear weapons. He affirmed Russia’s cooperation for IAEA investigations and accused Ukraine for playing under cover. On the usage of nuclear weapons, Putin highlighted the “Military Doctrine,” which provides the rules for Russia to used WMD’s under threat to sovereignty, territorial integrity and protection of Russians.

Sixth, future scope of Eurasian cooperation. Russian integration into the Europe has been a basis for the conflict in Ukraine. According to Putin, it was due to systemic mistakes of European leaders in the energy, food, and monetary sector that has led to inflation, whereas the Eurasian Economic Union which operates at the interest of the member countries to fill the gap between the North-South transport corridor to boost growth. He assured to create a “collective west,” with the population from Eurasia.


IN FOCUS
By Madhura S Mahesh

US Inflation Reduction Act 2022: Four issues for Europe
On 26 October, the European Commission Head of Cabinet to Pres. von der Leyen and the US Deputy National Security Adviser Mike Pyle at their meeting in Berlin launched the “EU-US Taskforce on the Inflation Reduction Act.” The task force was established to address the concerns of the EU regarding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

On 16 August, US President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law. This act was introduced to combat climate change and is the largest investment in the US’s social safety net. The continuation of premium subsidies of the Affordable Care Act and caps on drug prices are some of the policies introduced under this act. The policy that caused an uproar in Europe and the rest of the world was that of the change in subsidies plan for electric vehicle production. The European Commission spokeswoman Miriam Garcia Ferrer said: “The European Union is deeply concerned by this new, potential, trans-Atlantic trade barrier. We think that it’s discriminatory, that it’s discriminating against foreign producers in relation to U.S. producers.”

Four issues for Europe
First, the change in subsidy plans towards electric vehicles. The US offered USD 7500 worth of subsidies for all-electric vehicle buyers irrespective of the company and where it was produced. The IRA act changes this and now the incentive is offered only to buyers of electric vehicles assembled in North America only. It was done to encourage the people to “buy American” and boost domestic production, but affects Europe especially Germany in a bad way. Germany is a hub for automobile manufacturing with vehicles of Mercedes Benz, BMW and Volkswagen having manufacturing centres in Germany. With this new change, European-assembled vehicles will be more expensive compared which will lead to a decrease in sales. If they do go on to open production facilities in North America, it will decrease production in Europe and lead to a decrease in revenue for European nations.
 
Second, the possibility of a legal complaint to the WTO. After this law came into effect, electric vehicle manufacturing countries have considered approaching the WTO to address the issue. The countries that have expressed this option are all allies of the US. It is being considered as a last step as many think the new law is violating the WTO’s principle of fair and undistorted competition. With the law only providing subsidies to vehicles manufactured in North America, critics are saying this will lead to skewed competition in the American market and has ramifications in economies around the world. The law will make all the non-American produced electric vehicles more expensive in the US market. This will lead to a decrease in demand and a subsequently a decrease in revenue for the car manufactures. If the companies do open a production unit in North America it will take away the revenue from the companies origin country. If the matter is raised and taken to the WTO then it will be a long drawn-out affair for both sides and may start a pseudo-trade war between the opposing nations and the US. The EU which had launched an investigation looking at whether the new law will violate WTO rules said that they will be raising this concern at the joint US - EU Trade and Technology Council meeting in December.
 
Third, BASF's to decrease its presence in Germany. BASF is a German multinational company and the largest chemical producer in the world. On 26 October, it announced its third-quarter results where it outlined how its earnings have reduced due to a high gas and power prices. This has led to the company announcing that it would be reducing its presence in Germany by reducing business activities and jobs in Germany. This lands a huge blow to the German economy as BASF is a large company and this reflects the competitiveness in the European market. It stated how gas is six times more expensive in Europe compared to the US and with the US Inflation Reduction Act, which has provisions for climate change and increasing incentives for production may lead to BASF and similar companies to open production units in US. This will become an alternative source of production wherein the output price will be cheaper compared to the output produced in Europe due to lesser production cost. 
 
Fourth, the possibility of a “Buy European Act.” On 26 October, French President Emmanuel Macron advocated for a “Buy European Act” to counter the growing competition from China and the new IRA bid to increase domestic production. In the meeting between Macron and  German chancellor Olaf Scholz, discussed the IRA and plan to push European Commission to introduce a plan which would counter the IRA and boost domestic production. The EU has always veered away from polices that are protectionist in nature which has worked for it to build a free and competitive market. Macron’s statement opens the door for these policies and addresses the larger issue of dwindling influence of Europe when it comes to market competitiveness. EU’s history of depending on other nations for production has hampered its own growth market and has led to domestic production being expensive. The IRA and Macron’s statement is forcing Europe to rethink its strategy.

References
Launch of the US-EU Task Force on the Inflation Reduction Act,” ec.europa.eu, 26 October 2022
The Inflation Reduction Act Is Now Law—Here’s What It Means For You,” Forbes, 23 August 2022
EU says US electric vehicle tax credit could break WTO rules,” AP News, 11 August 2022
U.S. Inflation Reduction Act a risk to Europe's industrial base, EU's Vestager says,” Reuters, 26 October 2022  
S. Korea discusses U.S. EV tax law with European nations,” YONHAP NEWS AGENCY, 19 October 2022
US trade partners on warpath over electric vehicle tax credits in Manchin-Schumer,” Washington Examiner, 11 October 2022
Europe threatens trade retaliation over electric vehicle subsidies in Biden bill,” Washington Examiner, 29 October 2022
Scholz and Macron threaten trade retaliation against Biden,” POLITICO, 27 October 2022
Emmanuel Macron calls for ‘Buy European Act’ to protect regional carmakers,” POLITICO, 26 October 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 248 & 249
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 30 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on a meeting with the 27th meeting with the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Ukraine’s war efforts on the frontline, strategies for further liberation of occupied territories, ammunition and equipment supply and coordination of the defence forces was discussed between the parties. Zelenskyy also mentioned that Russian forces were continuing their efforts in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donbas, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and the surrounding regions. He also mentioned that Ukraine has finally been able to restore energy supply internally and thus no emergency blackouts had been reported. However, since generation deficits are still prevailing, he urged the citizens to practice “…extremely frugal electricity consumption and stabilization restrictions.” He criticised Russia for suspending the Black Sea Grain Deal and reported that 218 vessels were waiting in Ukrainian ports to be sent to the global markets. He accused Russia of pushing the world into a food shortage again and the resultant rise in prices.

On the same day, the Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that units of Russian forces were being deployed to Belarus, exacerbating the threat of missile strikes and drone attacks from Belarus to Ukraine. It also warned against the use of unmanned aerial vehicles from Belarus on Ukraine’s territory. Forces stationed at the border with Belarus are thus preparing for a possible attack amidst intermittent shelling in the region. Spokesperson Halyna Shekhovtsova told Sky, that her unit was preparing for additional fortifications due to the perceived rise in risk.

On 30 October, New Jersey-based non-profit organization Hope For Ukraine (HFU) which supports and rehabilitates the poorest individuals and communities in Ukraine announced in a press release that since February, 36 million meals have been delivered in Ukraine. Additionally medical supplies to 18 hospitals, housing, and medical attention to 1300 refugees, and clothing and hygiene products to 52,000 people have also been given. On this issue, HFU Founder Yuriy Boyechko said: “The war is not over and the situation on the ground gets worse each day… We are improving life, one breath at a time. You can count on our organization to bring hope to many hopeless situations in the Ukraine.”

On 28 October, people from the Iranian diaspora in Ukraine protested in the Maidan Independence Square in Kyiv against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and Iran’s support of the same. The organizer of the protest, Goreshi Mansour said that they do not support the actions of the Iranian authorities and are against the destruction caused by Iranian Kamikaze drones used by Russia. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 October, Russia’s defence ministry reported that Ukraine had launched an unsuccessful attack with nine aerial and seven naval drones on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol in Crimea. However, Russia’s army was able to “destroy” the drones. The ministry accused UK of training the Ukrainian 73rd Special Center for Maritime Operations, which had carried out the attacks. Terming it as a “terrorist attack,” the Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozzhayev said that it was the “most massive” drone attack by Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

On the same day, Moscow’s ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov responded to the criticism against Russia for suspending the Black Sea Grain Deal. He said that the reason behind the suspension was Ukraine’s drone attacks on the Sevastopol fleet but also because of “Washington's reaction to the terrorist attack on the port of Sevastopol” and the “complete disregard” the US showed towards Russia’s allegations of Ukrainian attack. Antonov also responded to the accusations that Russia is exacerbating global hunger and stated that ever-since the brokering of the deal, it has repeatedly emphasized on sending the grains to the poor countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan, even though only received only three per cent of the total products. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 30 October, the US, the UK and the EU along with Ukraine and the international community responded strongly to the Russia suspending the Black Sea Grain Deal. Due to the deal, so far, nine million tonnes of food and grains from Ukraine and Russia had been made available to the global market, thus bringing down soaring food prices by 15 per cent since March. NATO Spokesperson Oana Lungescu said, that Putin was once again “weaponizing food” and urged him to reconsider his decision. On the same issue, UN Secretary General mentioned he was deeply concerned about Russia’s actions and he be postponing his departure to attend the Arab League summit to try and revive the deal. Russia has requested a UNSC meeting on 31 October on the same issue.

On 28 October, tens of thousands of Czechs reached the capital to demonstrate their solidarity for Ukraine. The rally happened in the context of three anti-government displays where protestors exhibited agitation against the pro-Western Czech Prime Minister. The organisers of the previous rallies were known to be pro- Russian as well. The people on 28 October waved the Czech, Ukraine and EU flags, and cited, “Czech Republic against fear.” Organised by a group named Million Moments of Democracy, the rally expressed that the anti-government protests “exploited fear in inflation” and was undermining democracy.

On 29 October, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that US based Westinghouse had received the contract to build Poland’s first nuclear power plant. The move is to reduce Poland’s reliance on coal and to increase its energy independence. Morawiecki assured that the technology to be used would be “reliable and safe.” US’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm appreciated Warsaw’s decision and said: “This announcement also sends a clear message to Russia: We will not let them weaponize energy any longer.”

On 29 October, European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine Lagarde said that the Bank will have to raise interest because of inflation caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. On 27 October, the ECB had raised its interest rates to a record high since 2009. She said: “That's what he [Putin] is trying to do, cause chaos and destroy as much of Europe as he can… This energy crisis is causing massive inflation which we have to defeat.”

THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 28 October, at an address to the UNSC, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi referred to the “extremely fragile and dangerous” nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). He mentioned that considerable progress had been made in the establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone around the ZNPP, and because of high-level consultations with Ukraine and Russia, IAEA was “not far from” setting up the safe-zone. 

References
There were no emergency blackouts in the country today, but the generation deficit persists, therefore frugal electricity consumption should be continued - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 30 October 2022
Russia continues redeploying separate units to Belarus,” Ukrinform, 30 October 2022
36 Million Meals Provided In Ukraine By American Relief Organization Hope For Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 30 October 2022
Iranians Protest in Kyiv Against Iran’s Participation in Russia’s War,” Kyiv Post, 28 October 2022
A unified database of victims of repressions will appear in Russia,” LENTA.RU, 30 October 2022
Moscow responds to criticism over grain deal suspension,” RT, 30 October 2022
Russian military reveals details of Ukrainian drone attack in Crimea,” RT, 29 October 2022
Russia Says Repelled Ukraine Drone Attack on Crimea Fleet,” The Moscow Times, 29 October 2022)
Armenia ready to implement Russia’s peace plan – PM,” RT, 28 October 2022
Extraordinary session of the CSTO Collective Security Council,” kremlin.ru, 28 October 2022
UN, Nato, EU and US call on Russia to resume Ukrainian grain deal,” The Guardian, 30 October 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Michelle Nichols, “U.N., Turkey, Ukraine press ahead with Black Sea grain deal despite Russian pullout,” Reuters, 31 October 2022
Jones Hayden, “Poland picks Westinghouse to build its first nuclear plant,” POLITICO, 29 October 2022
UPDATE: Poland ready to help Ukraine transport goods: foreign ministry,” Radio Poland, 31 October 2022
Tens of thousands of Czechs show their support for Ukraine,” The Washington Post, 30 October 2022
Lagarde: ‘Sick’ Putin behind Europe’s inflation crisis,” POLITICO, 29 October 2022
IAEA Chief Visits US: Nuclear Energy, Ukraine and UN Security Council,” iaea.org, 28 October 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, Madhura S Mhesh, and Sandeep Ganesh

DENMARK
Three candidates fight against Frederiksen to become the next Prime Minister
On 30 October, THE LOCAL dk provided profiles for the four candidates of the Prime Ministerial election in Denmark, which will be held on 01 November. The major candidates are the centre-left Social Democrats Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, the liberal Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, the conservative Soren Pape Poulsen and the centrist moderate Lars Lokke Rasmussen. Frederiksen was the second female Prime Minister of Denmark after Helle Thorning-Schmidt. She has implemented tougher migration policies to defend the welfare state. She lost her popularity because she illegally handled the culling of the minks population due to the fear of mutation of the novel coronavirus. Ellemann-Jensen had a family of members of parliament and succeeded the former Prime Minister Rasmussen to lead the Liberal Party, whereas Pape Poulsen is considered the wild card on the right wing. However, a scandal involving the lineage of his husband led to the fall of his popularity. His party is now faring at six per cent, while it trailed 16.5 per cent of votes two months ago. Rasmussen formed a new party named the Moderates which rose from polling 1.8 per cent a month ago to 11.5 per cent now.  (“Three candidates for PM in Denmark, and one wild card,” THE LOCAL dk, 30 October 2022)

SWEDEN
Swedish Meteorological Institute predicts a rise in temperature in winter
On 28 October, Kristianstad city in Southern Sweden experienced 19.5 degrees Celsius, making it the highest recorded temperature in Sweden in late October. It is not the highest recorded temperature for October. However, it is the highest during the period of late October-early November. A meteorologist at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Erik Hojgard-Olsen, said that 2022 October had been warmer than usual by a few degrees in Sweden and that the meteorologists have continued to observe high temperatures with a warmer climate in 2022. (“Sweden sees record heat for this late in the year,” THE LOCAL se, 29 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Sweden’s Prime Minister’s first bilateral visit to Finland
On 28 October, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson met with Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin in Helsinki, discussing bilateral relations between the two countries and their future in NATO. Marin and Kristersson had discussed strengthening their cooperation to respond to hybrid threats or creating supply security for both countries. Finland and Sweden are closed due to access to NATO simultaneously. The Prime Ministers also condemned Russia for violating the UN Charter by invading Ukraine. Marin and Kristersson agreed to continue supporting Ukraine in the ongoing war. They also discussed the technological sector and the scope of business in network technologies. Kristersson met Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto, and it will be his first time abroad as a Prime Minister has been to Finland. (“Prime Minister Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson highlight importance of cooperation between Finland and Sweden,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 28 October 2022)
 
EU asks Kosovo to extend the deadline for change of license plates
On 29 October, European Commission’s spokesperson for foreign affairs and security at the Nabila Massrali said that Kosovo should extend the deadline for the phase-out of old Serbian license plates. These license plates are still being used by ethnic Serbs in Serbia. Massrali added: "This has been the consistent advice of Kosovo's closest partners, including the EU and the U.S. It is disappointing to see it has not been followed." The EU agreed that Kosovo has the right to phase out old license plates but said that the way it is being done violates an agreement from 2016 which calls for a 12-month period for the process. Massrali’s statement comes after Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti introduces a new plan relating to the new license plate registration rule which promotes a gradual phase-out of the old license plates. Starting from 01 November, drivers will be issued warnings for three weeks. Following this for the next two months fines will be levied and after which for two-months temporary licence plates will be valid. All of this is done to ensure that by 21 April 2023 all the vehicles will have the new licence plates and failure to do so will lead to confiscation of vehicles. (“EU Urges Kosovo To Allow More Time For Conversion Of Serbs' License Plates,” rfel.org, 29 October 2022)
 
EU to provide new grants to Serbia towards energy prices and infrastructure
On 28 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that Serbia will be providing EUR 165 million in grants to Serbia. von der Leyen announced EUR 165 million to support the budgetary requirements regarding energy provision for the vulnerable population and businesses. This is a short-term solution and not a sustainable one according to the President. President von der Leyen also announced an additional 500 million in grants for investment in energy infrastructure which will benefit and diversify Serbia’s energy sources. some of the projects under this will be the Trans-Balkan Electricity Corridor, a gas interconnector between Serbia and North Macedonia.  and a new, modern and more energy-efficient University Children's Hospital in Belgrade. During her visit to Serbia, von der Leyen visited the construction site of the Serbia-Bulgaria gas interconnector which was 80 per cent funded by the European Commission and the European Investment Bank. (“Statement by President von der Leyen on the occasion of her official visit to Serbia,” ec.europa.eu, 28 October 2022)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Slovakia and Poland hit with cyber attacks
On 29 October 2022, the Polish and Slovakian parliaments were hit by cyber-attacks affecting the functioning of the Senates. Slovakia’s Deputy Speaker Gabor Grendel said that the Parliament was hit around 1100 hours when the parliament was set to vote on several bills. Grendel said that the parliament was informed by the head of the administrative department that the entire parliament’s computer system was down due to a cyber attack on its IT system. Slovakian parliamentary speaker Boris Kollar said that the attacker has not been identified and that technicians are looking into the source of the problem and getting the system back up. The Polish parliament’s entire IT infrastructure was attacked and the authorities are of the view that Russia is behind this attack. The Polish Senate issued a statement saying: “The attack was multi-directional, including from inside the Russian Federation. Polish Senate Speaker Tomasz Grodzki called the Russian government a “terrorist regime”. (A massive cyberattack hit Slovak and Polish Parliaments,” Security Affairs, 29 October 2022) 
 
Hyundai Motor Group to build electric vehicles in Slovakia from 2025
On 31 October, Hyundai Motor Group announced that they will be producing electric vehicles in Slovakia. The Kia Corporations Slovakian plant will now mass-produce pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for Europe from 2025. No further details have been reported regarding the nature of production. Built-in 2006, the plant currently has exceeded four million units in cumulative production. Slovakia has come up as a major player in the production of EVs with automobile production consisting of 13 per cent of Slovakia’s GDP. (“Hyundai Motor Group to Produce EVs in Slovakia from 2025,” Business Korea, 31 October 2022)

 


29 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #344

Missile systems in Ukraine war: A profile | War in Ukraine: Day 247

Photo : Himars, Kongsberg, Bayraktar TB2/Baykartech, Neptune/Military today, S-300/Wikimedia,


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan 

Missile systems in Ukraine war: A profile
The Ukraine war which began in 24 February nearing 250 days of war has led to expansion and escalation in different fronts. While humanitarian violations, economic fallouts, food insecurity and energy shortage and refugee crisis have impacted the globe. The main trigger to the advancement of war is the involvement of the West and aggressive approach of Russia that led to the emergence of the missiles, weapons, and new technologies. The following commentary provides a profile of the missile systems and drone technologies used by the US, the UK, Russia, and remaining European member states in the Ukraine war.

Drones
Kamikaze drones have been used by Ukraine and Russia in different forms. In September, Russian forces were observed to be using the Shahed -136 suicide drones imported from Iran to launch attacks in Odesa command post of Ukraine. Similarly, Ukraine has also been supported by the US and Turkey with Switchblade and Bayraktar TB2 drones to counter Russia. The three drone models categorised as loitering drones can precision strike the target, of which the Shahed-136 is considered the most lethal with a highest range capacity of 2500 kilometres (kms) whereas Switchblade and Bayraktar TB2 drones ranges at 300-400 kms.

Shahed-136
The drone was first launched by Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Company (HESA) in 2021 has a conventional two-stroke piston engine which acts as power to the propeller. Weighing close to 40 kilograms (kg), has a delta wing, with a capacity to carry a warhead ranging 30 to 50 kg and travel at 185 kilometres speed per hour. Although the Shahed-136 drone has a “slow and low flying” feature and faces a limitation of GPS jam, it is fixable and an cost effective option instead of cruise missiles costing GBP 17,800.

Switchblade drones
Switchblade 600 and 300 version are featured for its high-precision strike, loitering endurance and anti-armour warhead to engage larger targets from longer distance. The Switchblade 600 has a better range of 40 kms compared to 300 of 10 kms, endurance of up to 40 minutes, with a next generation technology where the targets can be set of from the “touch screen tablet based fire control unit.” It comes with a flexibility to be deployed from any air vehicle, ground vehicle, water craft and multipack launcher. The production has now been ramped up by the US to support Ukraine forces.

Bayraktar TB2 drones
Bayraktar TB2 is produced by a Turkish based campany Baykar which excels in UAV and AI technology. The drone is a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE), which used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and armed attack missions. Key feature of the drone being Baykar Real Time Imagery Transmission System (BGAM) giving a real time image and allows multiple users to monitor the area. Unlike Switchblade drones, its endurance beats out with 27 hours and three minutes to stay up in air with triple redundant avionic system. It is one of highly deemed aircrafts exported by Turkey to Qatar, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan, functionable with four lase guided ammunition and a capacity to carry 700 kgs to carry out “surgical-precision strikes with lesser damage to areas nearby. It will be a costly option for Ukraine as one Bayraktar costs GBP 1.7 million.
 
Air defence systems
Iris-T
The manufacturing of IRIS-T air defence system began in 1990’s by the Diehl Defense company in Germany conducted the final tests in 2021.  One system costing EUR 140 million has a capacity to provide medium-range, high-altitude cover for smaller cities and armies. The IRIS-T surface launched missile (SLM) system consists of three vehicles including, a missile launcher, a radar, and a fire-control radar with integrated logistics. Key feature of the missile system includes, a multifunction radar with 250 km range, and elevatable up to 90 degrees. A SLM launcher with high-firing capacity, multiple-targeting, and 40 km range. Apart from this it provides airspace surveillance, “threat evaluation, weapon assignment and multi-datalink capability.” Out of four systems promised to Ukraine, one has been delivered by Germany.

NASMAS system
The National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System is a product of Kongsberg, Norway which provides a medium range ground-based air defence system. It consists of command post, an active 3D radar, electro-optical, infrared sensor and missile canisters with AMRAAM missiles. The important feature of NASMAS is its unique “hard-realtime” communication grid which ensure minimum delay maximum utilization of the missile system and similar to drone, it provides a flexibility to protect “Air Bases, Sea Ports, Populated Areas, other High-Value Assets and Army Forces.” NASMAS has been currently used by 12 country’s air force and extremely depended by the US since 2005.

F-35
One of the supreme air fighter jets produced by the US, after the fourth generation F-16s and F-15Es, it is the F35 edition which has added strength to national security and global partnership. The F35s are designed with the most powerful engine of Pratt and Whitney F135 to operate at a speed of Mach 1.6 that can be launched at a long range while carrying JASSM or LRASM internally with ability to dissuade near opponents. With its advanced sensor suite and fusion capacity, it can locate the enemy forces, jam radars, disrupt strikes and augments the survivability. Currently the F35’s along with the fourth generation fighter jets are used part of NATO’s Steadfast Noon exercise.

Missiles
S-300 missiles
A soviet era, surface to air missile operating since 1978 can be loaded in aircraft and UAV’s to improve the missile defence capability. It was produced to meet the challenge of long-range cruise missiles and was put to halt in 2016, after the Crimean annexation, Russia was seen to be deploying the S-300 missiles. Its shelf life being 40 years, so far it has used 5V55K, 5V55R, 48N6 modes and can carry four missiles at a time. The operation is carried out using “high-explosive fragmentation warheads” to activate the attack and destroy targets. After the Crimean annexation, the Ukraine war has brought these missiles back into ground.

HIMARS
Similar to IRIS-T, it forms part of the Multiple Rocket Launch System (MRLS), capable to carrying six GMLRS rockets and one TACMS missile. With advanced technology, can target at a range of 300 to 500 km to carry out long range precision strikes. Compared to other western artillery such as M777 Howitzer and Russia’s BM-30 Smerch, 2A36 Giatsint-B howitzer, HIMARS system exceeds the in terms of range and target precision. For a higher range capacity, its mobility and survivability are done easy through shoot and scoot approach. The HIMARS rocket system has been the game changer for Ukraine since August to launch offensive against Russia.

Cruise missiles
Neptune anti-ship missiles
The Neptune anti-ship missile gained its popularity after taking down the Maersk Ship of Russia. A Ukraine made cruise missile like Russia’s Kh-35U was first tested in 2016. Its key features being its target range of 280 km, deploy ability from sea, land and air, inbuilt navigation system with radar and travels at a subsonic speed. Overall Ukraine has developed the Neptune missile system along with the Ukrainian coastal defence system equal to Russia, but faces limitations in terms of developing a radar and financial restrictions.

Kh-101/KH-102
Kh-101 are the conventional cruise missiles with nuclear capability produced by Russia. The main aim of this built is to counter defeat air-defence systems using a low-fly range, “terrain-hugging altitude” to prevent radar system detection. Kh-101 has the capacity to carry warhead and Kh-102 is predicted to carry 250 kt of nuclear load. These cruise missiles have been part of Russian air force since 2012 taking part in many combat operations such as ISIS attacks in 2015. The features of the missiles are TRDD 50A turbofan engine which gives it up to Mach 0.78 speed, a massive range of 2500 to 2800 km and has an endurance of 10 hours which are less compared to switchblade drones. it's accuracy is also seen as an advantage due to its operability using electronic GLONASS satellite navigation which was designed by the Soviet engineers.

References
Neptun-Anti-ship cruise missile,” military-today, 2022
HIMARS: Protecting our soldiers with combat proven reliability,” lockheedmartin, 2022
S-300,” missilethreat.csis.org, 2021
F-35 Lightning,” f35, 2022
NASAMS AIR DEFENCE SYSTEM,” Kongsberg, 2022
Explainer: Germany's IRIS-T air defense system,” Deutsche Welle, 12 October 2022
How are 'kamikaze' drones being used by Russia and Ukraine?,” BBC, 17 October 2022
Bayraktar TB2,” baykartech, 2022
SWITCHBLADE® 300,” avinc, 2022
SWITCHBLADE® 600,” avinc, 2022
Shahed-136 Drone (“Geran-2”),” rferl.org, 2022
All about Shahed-136, Iran’s ‘kamikaze’ drone that Russia is using to strike Ukraine,” The Print, 27 September 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 247
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 28 October, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force Command Yurii Ihnat reported that they have downed more than 300 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. Ihnat said: "Since September 13, when the first Shahed-136 kamikaze drone was shot down in Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, until today we have more than 300 downed Shahed-136 kamikaze drones" HE highlighted that the use of these drones has slowed down. Ihnat suspects that Russia does not have the same stock of drones it had back in September. He added that Russia is monitoring the performance and damage caused by the drones to Ukraine’s air defence and using them only at night when they can only be shot down by weapons with radar systems. Ihnat said that they do not know the total amount of drones received by Russia and if they are being able to manufacture them.  

On 28 October, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that the Ukrainian air force launched 24 strikes on Russian positions. These strikes hit 20 Russian ammunition and military equipment clusters and four air defence missile system. The strikes also hit a Russian command post and six soldiers. 

On 28 October, the Donetsk Head of Regional Military Administration Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that in all the de-occupied regions preparations for winter are taking place. Kyrylenko said that in 15 territories gas supply was restored, and key infrastructure and social infrastructure were restored in 10 communities. He update that the power supply between Lyman and Sviatohirsk has been connected and that the Administration is restoring the internal supply lines. 

On the same day, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that LLC Gas Supply Company Naftogaz Trading will start acquiring gas to help Ukraine survive winter. Shmyhal outlined that the purchase will be made keeping in mind the allocated budget of UAH 12.7 billion. Currently, Ukraine has pumped 14 billion cubic meters and stored winter use. Shmyhal noted that this would have been enough if it was a normal winter, but with the uncertainties of war, additional reserves are needed to prevent a shortage in winter. 

On 28 October, the Kherson region’s Deputy Head of the Administration Kirill Stremousov said that the Russian forces in the region are stopping all attempts by Ukrainian Armed Forces to enter the region. Stremousov reported that fighting between the two forces is ongoing in the northern Kherson region and in the Nikolaev direction. He said that Russian forces are in control of the situation and that: "We are defending. So far, no one is moving anywhere.” 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 October, the Central Bank of Russia estimated that the partial mobilization policy will have a disinflationary effect on the economy but will increase inflation in the supply side of the economy. The disinflationary effect is due to the decrease in consumer demand and acts as a deterrence to inflation. When the supply-side inflation is looked at, the Central Bank said that due to increased restrictions on manufacturing and lack of labour will drive up inflation and turn the disinflationary effect into a pro-inflationary one. The Central Bank announced its projection for the key inflation rate to be 7.5 per cent. the Bank also announced that there need not be compulsory conversion to rubles from foreign currency. It is of the view that: "Citizens should have a choice - to leave their funds in foreign currency or convert them into rubles." 

On 28 October, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu informed President Vladimir Putin that the partial mobilization exercise has come to an end. Shoigu stated that the 300,000 personnel target has been reached and there have been no new conscriptions and no additional assignments planned. Shoigu reported that now enlistment offices will replenish the military with volunteers and candidates for service under contract. Currently out of the total 300,000, 218,000 are in training centers and 82,000 have been deployed to fight in Ukraine. He highlighted that all of them who have provided their service to the forcers will be designated as combat veterans and get social protection benefits.  

On 28 October, Russia’s Foreign Ministry published a report looking into the alleged abuse of the humanitarian corridor under the Black Sea initiative. The Ministry noted that despite a few initial struggles, the movement of cargo has increased at a rapid pace. It said: "If three weeks were needed to transport the first million tons, now it takes slightly more than a week to ship the same volume. Such high rates and efficiency are largely achieved at the expense of the extreme load on our specialists."

The Ministry addressed the blockade and congestion of ships in the corridor are being done to create pressure on Russian officials to speed up the checks and not be through in its measures. the ministry also included that the ongoing investigations of the attack on the Crimean Bridge are a sign that the corridor is being abused as the bridge served as a delivery route to the ports. The report highlights how the distribution of cargo does not line up with the agreed humanitarian goals. It states how: "Half of all deliveries went to the European Union and such developed countries as the UK, Israel and South Korea, while the needy countries, particularly, Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan, received only 3% of food products, mainly via the UN World Food Programme (WFP). Due to this, the UN leadership even re-categorized this humanitarian initiative as a commercial one, stressing the importance of stabilizing global food prices." It criticized these shipments by comparing them with their own where Russia has delivered: “About 10.5 mln tons of grain (77% wheat) have already been sent to Asian (62%) and African (33%) countries."

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 28 October, The Pentagon announced a new military assistance package to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia. The package includes USD 275 million High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, small arms and satellite systems. The US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said that these weapons would make “such a difference to the battlefield” and that this support would continue. This package currently entails the US’s overall security assistance of more than USD 18.5 billion, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
 
On 28 October, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol  said that Russia would lose the energy battle it is citing against the West if it continues its aggression against Ukraine. Commenting on the loss of the European oil market, Birol mentioned that Russia lost its “biggest client” and acknowledged that Russia would not be able to recover this “big chunk” of the market anytime soon. Speaking of the international gas crisis, he said that the issue is driven by the overdependency of Russia’s reserves. Warning that the winter might prove costly for the European states, he remarked that if the European countries could “emerge as a strong buyer”, they could sustain customers from around the world.

On 27 October, the CEO Haluk Bayraktar of the Baykar defence company stated that the construction of the drone plant in Ukraine will finish in two years’ time. the Bayraktar TB2 played a crucial role in the initial attacks by Russia by helping Ukraine defend itself. Speaking to Reuters at the SAHA define expo in Istanbul, the executive said: “Right now we have architectural design. The detailed design phase is finished. And we will move ahead with construction actually… within two years we would like to finish it.” 
 
On 28 October, Norwegian Security Services formally charged a man of allegedly being a Russian Spy. Earlier this week the police arrested a university lecturer for being a spy and have now revealed that he has lied about his identity. According to security services he has adopted an alias as a 37-year-old man called José Assis Giammaria from Brazil. In reality, he is a 44-year-old man named Mikhail Valerievich Mikushin. He is being accused of collecting illegal intelligence linked to state secrets. The lawyer of the accused says that her client has denied all the charges. When the media asked the Russian Embassy in Oslo for a comment, it said that they do not who the man in question is and did not comment on the new information released by the security services. 
 
On 28 October, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada will raise funds for Ukraine by selling bonds. The bonds will be government-backed five-year bonds that will be available for purchase in sovereign banks. Canada is the first country to take this route to raise funds. there has been no additional information regarding the date of the sale and if the government has put a cap on the number of bonds that can be purchased. Additionally, Canada has imposed new sanctions on 35 senior officials from the Russian energy sector which includes officials from Gazprom.
 
On 28 October, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that the tender for Poland’s first Nuclear Poer Station will be awarded to Westinghouse, a US-based firm. The entire project is USD 40 billion and Westinghouse will be taking over the first part of it. Morawiecki stated that this will be formally passed by the cabinet on 02 November. The government has expressed its desire to have this running by 2033 and simultaneously look into expanding this project to open more power stations. The US has applauded this decision and has said that this is a major step in expanding the two countries relations. US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said: "I think it sends a clear message to Russia that the Atlantic alliance stands together to diversify our energy supply... and to resist Russian weaponisation of energy,"    

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 27 October, International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Grosso said that engineers were working at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to stabilize the plant’s external power supplies. He assured that even though the plant was still vulnerable, it had received the power required for reactor cooling and other operations for the last ten days without any interruption. The switchyard of the nearby thermal power plants are also prepared to provide backup emergency power if necessary. However, Grossi elaborated on the vulnerability of the plant as only one 750 kilowatts external power line is currently operational instead of four, as had been before Russia's invasion. Grossi said that he considers ZNPP as a Ukrainian plant, even though Russia has claimed complete control over it, and it has more Russian people working at the plant. Grosso also addressed that the IAEA is looking into the ‘dirty bombs’ claim by Russia at the behest of the Ukrainian government. The IAEA officials will be visiting two nuclear plants under the IAEA safeguard to conduct investigations regarding this claim. Speaking at the closed-door UNSC meeting, Grosso said that the results of the investigation will be analysed and promptly published to the public  

On 29 October, Global Times reported that China and Russia will strengthen their bilateral ties. In a recent report on this issue, Putin said: As for Russian-Chinese relations, they have reached an unprecedented level of openness, mutual trust and effectiveness over the past years, past decades... I am sure that based on that strong foundation, we will steadily move forward. At a media briefing, China's Foreign Minister, Wang Wenbin reiterated that sentiment and said that China appreciates Putin's positive remarks. He also said that China will continue to share governance experience, enhance corporations in various fields and support each other in the path of development.
 
On 27 October, the Russian embassy in India said that Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar will be visiting Russia on 08 November. He will meet Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The embassy said that the two leaders will "discuss the current state of bilateral relations and the international agenda."
 
On 27 October, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman held meetings with the Energy Ministers of France and Greece. Abdulaziz and French Minister, Agnes Pannier-Runachar discussed the importance of increasing the stability of the international oil market and continuing their close cooperation to address the upcoming challenges, especially in the fields of clean hydrogen and renewable energy. The two sides reaffirmed their faith in the 2011 Bilateral Cooperation Agreement in Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy and also discussed the opportunities in petrochemicals, electricity, energy efficiency, innovation, decarbonization technologies and other areas of mutual interest. Abdulaziz, along with Greece's Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas established a bilateral High-Level Working Group that will facilitate the implementation of an MoU signed between the two countries in July 2022. The two leaders expressed the desire to stabilize the international oil market, continue close communication and ensure secure and reliable supplies of energy in the international market.
 
On 27 October, UNESCO reported with the assistance of the UN Satellite Centre UNOSAT that it has been keeping track of the on-ground damage to cultural sites in Ukraine with the help of satellites. So far, 207 cultural sites in Ukraine have been damaged since the Russian invasion. UNESCO's cultural and emergencies director, Krista Pikkat said that while the situation is bad, it might get even worse and that it was imperative for UNESCO to have information on the sites ready for recovery.

References
Donetsk region’s de-occupied areas make preparations for winter period Donetsk region’s de-occupied areas make preparations for winter period,” Ukrinform, 28 October 2022
Ukrainian air forces launch 24 strikes on enemy positions,” Ukrinform, 28 October 2022
Budget envisages UAH 12.7B for natural gas purchase for winter - Shmyhal,” Ukrinform, 28 October 2022
Ukrainian forces down over 300 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones since Sept 13,” Ukrinform, 28 October 2022
Kherson region told about the defense of the Russian army,” Lenta.ru, 28 October 2022
The Central Bank assessed the impact of partial mobilization on inflation,” Lenta.ru, 28 October 2022
Bank of Russia’s Chief rules out mandatory conversion from foreign currency to rubles,” TASS, 28 October 2022
Shoigu tells Putin partial mobilization over in Russia,” TASS, 28 October 2022
Russian Foreign Ministry points to misuse of grain deal’s humanitarian corridor,” TASS, 28 October 2022
Pentagon announces new military aid for Ukraine to fight Russia,” PressTV, 28 October 2022
'Russia will lose the energy battle,' says IEA chief Fatih Birol,” euronews, 28 October 2022 
Norway charges man accused of being Russian spy,” BBC, 28 October 2022 
Canada raising money for Ukraine with sale of bonds,” Reuters, 28 October 2022
Poland Picks US Firm To Build 1st Nuclear Power Station: PM,” Barrons, 28 October 2022
Turkey’s Baykar to complete drone plant in Ukraine in two years,” EURACTIV, 28 October 2022 
China and Russia reaffirm deepened relations at all levels, ‘embodiment of major-country diplomacy',” Global Times, 28 October 2022 
Indian foreign minister to visit Russia on Nov 8 - embassy,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
Saudi energy minister discusses oil market stability with French, Greek counterparts,” Saudi Gazette, 27 October 2022
Update 121 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 27 October 2022
UN keeping track of damage to Ukrainian cultural sites with before-and-after satellite images,” euronews, 28 October 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav 

NORTHERN IRELAND
To hold another election after the government devolved
On 28 October, BBC reported that Northern Ireland’s Secretary of State, Chris Heaton-Harris, said that he would call an assembly election within 12 weeks as per the legislation. Since the election in May, the government was devolved due to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) refusing to take up the position in the government in Belfast. The DUP had blocked the election result due to the uncertainty in the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was signed following Brexit. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said that his party would not participate until the issues around the protocol were resolved. The region’s government has a joint-authority system which enables multiple parties to form the government. Heaton-Harris said that an election must be conducted again in Northern Ireland to move forward. The exact date of the election is yet to be confirmed by Northern Ireland’s Secretary of State. (“NI Assembly election to be called but no date set,” BBC, 28 October 2022)

NORWAY
Equinor rakes sizeable profits amid energy crisis
On 28 October, THE LOCAL no reported on profits of Norway’s energy company Equinor earned between July to September as a result of the energy crisis in Europe. Its net profit for the third quarter grew from USD 1.4 billion in 2021 to 9.4 billion in 2022. The price of a single oil barrel was estimated to be 34 per cent higher than in the 2021 third quarter. Norway has been the primary supplier of fossil fuels to Europe after Russia stopped supplying it. Due to the high demand, Norway has increased its annual production by 11 per cent more than in 2021. The partially state-owned company does not face windfall taxes as most of the profits go to Norway’s treasury, and the Nordic countries rely on their energy as the main source of revenue. Equinor is also heavily taxed under Norway’s laws. (“Norway’s Equinor sees profits jump due to soaring oil and gas prices,” THE LOCAL no, 28 October 2022)

REGIONAL
The EU imposes ban on import of combustion engine cars
On 27 October, European Parliament and the Council members agreed on an emission limit on new cars. By 2035, all new cars and vans sold in the EU should be emission-free. Under the rule, the new cars sold in the EU in 2030 should have 55 per cent fewer emissions than in 2021. The production of combustion engine cars is being replaced by the manufacturing of electric cars by many car manufacturers. The ban on combustion engine cars will make electric cars cheaper, and people are going after cleaner and greener leading to decrease in the emission rate over the years and help reduce global warming. (Elli-Alina Hiilamo and Timo-Pekka Heima, “An agreement was reached in the EU: The sale of new combustion engine cars will be banned from 2035,” yle.fi, 28 October 2022)

Rishi Sunak first phone conversation with Macron 
On 28 October, the UK’s new Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, held a phone call with France’s President Emmanuel Macron to discuss deepening both countries’ relations in defence, energy, the war in Ukraine, climate change and migration. Sunak and Macron agreed to form a decisive package to stop illegal human trafficking in the English Channel. The details of the package were not mentioned in the conversation. The predecessors of Sunak had rough relations with Macron in discussing the issue. Downing Street and the Elysee predict that Sunak and Macron will have an amicable relationship going forward. (Jessica Parker, “Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron vow to co-operate on Channel crossings - No 10,” BBC, 28 October 2022)

Orban and Garibashvili discuss on energy crisis in Budapest
On 27 October, When Hungary’s the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán met his counterpart from Georgia Irakli Garibashvili in Budapest, the two leaders signed a strategic partnership agreement. In a joint statement released they stressed that increased supply in the energy sector can drive down prices, Orbán said,  “...is fighting inflation, which is largely due to high energy prices.”. The plan is to build a huge electricity pipeline system to bring energy from Azerbaijan to Hungary via Georgia and Romania. This move would help Hungary to replace large quantities of natural gas and gas that is currently used to generate electricity in Hungary. He also added that it’s a very discriminatory decision was made in Brassels when Moldova and Ukraine were granted EU candidate status, but Georgia was not and stated that Hungary would continue to support the granting of candidate status to Georgia as soon as possible. (Barbara Bene, “Viktor Orbán Calls for Energy Diversification,” Hungar today, 28 October 2022)


INTERNATIONAL
The Inflation Reduction Act threatens Europe's transatlantic trade relations
On 26 October, the US introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax cuts and energy benefits for companies in the US. The Act was disagreed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The US encourages its consumers to buy all products, including cars from its own manufacturers. The “Buy American” protectionist sentiment fueled by the Act has resulted in companies vacating Europe to move towards the US. Europe is criticized for its expensive energy rates than the US. Macron has called against the Inflation Reduction Act and said that Europe should start the “Buy European Act”, which the EU and Scholz disagree with. The EU also formed a new “EU-US Taskforce on the Inflation Reduction Act” to discuss the issue amicably with the US. (Hans Von Der Burchard and Clea Caulcutt, “Scholz and Macron threaten trade retaliation against Biden,” POLITICO, 27 October 2022)

 


28 October 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #343

War in Ukraine: Day 246 | Shahed drones launched from Belarus into Ukraine

Photo : The Guardian


War in Ukraine: Day 246
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 27 October, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov thanked Spain’s Defence Minister Margarita Robles for providing military aid through the Ministry’s Telegram post. Both Defence Ministers discuss powering up Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. Ukraine received Hawk systems, an air defence system from Spain.
 
On 27 October, the Ukraine Army’s Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov, said that the Russians had launched ten suicidal Shahed-136 drones from Belarus. Russians had also deployed its troops to airfields in Belarus and were seen conducting active operations on the training grounds. He added that Ukraine is monitoring Russian activities in Belarus and will deal with any threats that Russia poses, irrespective of the direction it comes from.

On 26 October, around 70,000 people and 19,000 vehicles crossed Ukraine’s border with the EU and Moldova during the day. 37,000 people exited Ukraine, 23,000 crossed over to Poland and the rest to other EU states and Moldova. 33,000 people had travelled to Ukraine. 68 trucks containing humanitarian aid were provided to the people who have come to the country. The influx of traffic was heavy on the western border of Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 26 October, Russia complained to the UNGA First Committee about the possibility of the US using its commercial satellites to help Ukraine in the war. Foreign Ministry’s non-proliferation and arms control department, Russia’s Deputy Director, Konstantin Vorontsov, said at a meeting of the UNGA First Committee that using civilian infrastructure facilities in space for the war would endanger the stability of civil space activities and various socioeconomic processes that decides people’s wellbeing on earth. 

On 27 October, Lenta.ru reported that Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko remarks on Europe. He warned that it was heading towards an energy suicide at the fifteenth Verona Eurasian Economic Forum. He said, “Effectively, we are witnessing the economic, military and ideological enslavement of Europe by the EU. Meekly and voluntarily, the EU has traded its energy freedom, the basis for economic development, which has been based upon energy cooperation with Russia, unaffected by any political conjuncture, for decades - for dependency on the US,” and that the EU had lost its energy freedom in exchange for economic growth. According to Grushko, the EU had shifted its energy imports from Russia to the US.
 
On 27 October, Russia’s Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, said at a briefing that Russia would fight back if the EU decides to confiscate its frozen assets. She compared the EU’s action to “thieving” and that it will harm the bloc’s reputation. Russia announced it would take action against the EU if its government reserves were seized.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 26 October, European leaders finalized plans to place a cap on Russian oil prices despite the World Bank’s warning that the plan will need the effective participation of growing market economies. The price cap would cut Russia’s major funding source for the war while oil production would continue to avoid an energy price hike. The price cap will be decided to be in the USD 60 per barrel range. The price cap will go into effect from 05 December and will be undertaken by Europe and the US.
 
On 27 October, the UK’s Defence Ministry’s Intelligence update on the war in Ukraine stated that Moscow’s Mayor Sergey Sobyanin would head the development of security measures in Russian territories following the decree by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to introduce a new regimen of security alert levels. Russia plans to involve regional governments in its national security system to organize its society. The close relations with regional officials will also partially deflect public criticism away from the Russian regime. A similar strategy was used to escape the blame for the COVID-19 pandemic by Putin. However, he will find it difficult to hide from the criticisms of the impacts of the special military operation in Ukraine.

On 27 October, Germany requested Switzerland to approve its re-export of Swiss-made ammunition to Ukraine. Germany’s Defence Ministry had written a letter requesting the right to re-export the ammunition. The Swiss government replied that it “...will respond to this letter in a timely manner.” In April 2022, Switzerland denied the same request on the grounds that it would violate its neutral stance in international politics.

On 27 October, the US pledged it would provide a USD 275 million package of weapons and other aid to Ukraine to increase its capabilities to chase out the occupying Russian forces. The focus of the package is to restock the ammunition for weapons available in Ukraine. Details of the aid are yet to be published.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 27 October, RT reported on India’s plans to continue importing Russian wheat to process it into flour and other materials like pasta and re-exporting it to the neighbouring countries. India sees it as a way to increase its exports. India had previously stopped purchasing wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Australia to support its domestic producers. However, India plans to resume the imports to re-export it by establishing a joint venture with Russia amid the ongoing war.

On 27 October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a statement that the reduced export of Russian fossil fuel would pave the way to a global green energy transition. Russian energy trade is predicted by IEA to fall from 20 per cent in 2021 to 13 per cent in 2030. IEA also projects through its history of modelling that the demand for fossilfuel will hit the peak by 2025 and will start to stagnate from 2030. The war in Ukraine has changed the global energy policy, and the world is now looking at cleaner and more affordable sources. IEA said that global clean energy investment will increase more than USD two trillion a year by 2030 as the international community will be accustomed to Russia-Europe energy fallout.

References
Ukraine needs victory over Russia, in particular in the field of energy - address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi,” president.gov.ua, 26 October 2022
Tougher power supply caps in parts of Ukraine amid continued Russian strikes on energy infrastructure,” Ukrinform, 27 October 2022
Ukraine to receive another military aid package from Spain - Reznikov,” Ukrinform, 27 October 2022
Russia launches kamikaze drones from Belarus 10 times over past week - Ukraine’s General Staff,” Ukrinform, 27 October 2022
The situation at checkpoints on the western border,” dpsu.gov.ua, 27 October 2022
Russia announced the "energy suicide" of Europe,” Lenta.ru, 27 October 2022
US satellites may be legitimate targets if used in conflict in Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 27 October 2022)
Moscow to retaliate if Brussels confiscates frozen assets — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 27 October 2022
Andrea Shalal and David Lawder, “Western officials finalizing plans for Russia oil-price cap,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 27 October 2022,” Twitter, 27 October 2022
Switzerland to examine new German request to allow weapon re-exports to Ukraine,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
Lolita C Baldor and Matthew Lee, “US to send Ukraine additional $275 million in military aid,” AP News, 27 October 2022
Noah Browning, “Energy crisis sparked by Ukraine war to speed up green transition -IEA,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
India mulls trade in Russian grain – media,” RT, 27 October 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee

ESTONIA
Social Affairs Ministry reports a surge in food aid beneficiaries
On 26 October, Estonia’s Social Affairs Ministry reported that there has been a surge in the number of food aid recipients in the second quarter of the year. The Ministry recorded a 65 per cent increase which is approximately 14,000 more beneficiaries. The Estonian Food Bank added that in August and September 35,328 food parcels were distributed by them. A volunteer at the Food Bank Liisa Rebane-Mäe told that more parcels have been distributed in the first nine months of 2022 when compared to all of 2021. The recipients are decided based on applications for and beneficiaries of subsistence allowance and government benefits. The food aid package includes dry goods, tea, honey, tinned meat, muesli bars, raisins, nuts and biscuits. (“A huge increase in food aid recipients in Estonia,” Estonian world, 26 October 2022)
 
Reinsalu proposes to reinstate internal Schengen border controls
On 27 October, Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) expressed the need for the reinstation of border controls at Estonia’s internal Schengen borders. Reinsalu added: "The Foreign Ministry's unequivocal view is that we need stronger controls and greater clarity." According to him with the influx of over 100,000 Ukrainian citizens into the country and many of them treating Estonia as a transit country, it is imperative to know their status. At the same time, the Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE) disagreed stating that it will not only drive-up spending to EUR 7.3 million a month, but has the potential to weaken Estonia’s guard of its eastern border. Estonian Law enforcement agencies have  backed Läänemets saying that “..there's no need to start carefully examining Latvian plates at the expense of internal security.” Läänemets believes that there should be talks with other European nations to accept war refugees if the war continues for another year and said that “I'm relying here on robust action from the Foreign Ministry." (“Estonian FM wants to reinstate border controls at internal Schengen border,” news.err.ee, 27 October 2022) 
 
KOSOVO
Refuses to extend deadline for vehicles to have Kosovo license plates
On 27 October, the leader of the Serbian List party, Goran Rakic said that the Kosovo Serbs in the norther part of Kosovo will again block the roads, if authorities in Pristina start confiscating cars without Kosovo license plates. As per decision taken by Kosovo’s government in July, after 31 October, vehicles with Serbian identity documents and license plates would not be valid in Kosovo territory. On this issue, Prime Minister Albin Kurti said: "We already delayed the deadline.... The last date is October 31 when all Kosovo citizens who have old automobile plates, which are a legacy of the Milosevic era, will be able to convert them into legitimate ones.” Rakic said that the protest by the Kosovo Serbs will “use all democratic and peaceful means" to resist the move. (“Kosovo Serbs Warn They Will Again Block Roads If License-Plate Deal Not Extended,” rferl.org, 28 October 2022)
 
LITHUANIA
Signs four year defence contract with Saab
On 27 October, the Lithuania Defence Material Agency signed a four-year contract for the RBS 70 surface-to-air missile with the Saab, a Swedish aerospace and defence company. Through this contract, the Defence Ministry can order the missiles till 2026. The first order under the contract worth SEK 350 million is expected to delivery between 2023-2024. The order also includes extra missiles for Saab’s RBS 70 surface-based defence system which has been a part of Lithuania’s military since 2004. The new purchase will help expedite Lithuania’s short-range air defence capabilities in the short term. (“RBS 70 Missiles for Lithuania,” Estonian Free Press, 27 October 2022)   

MALTA
Reviews the validity and success of the “golden passport” scheme
On 27 October, EURACTIV reported on Malta’s golden passport scheme by which wealthy foreigners can buy citizenship in exchange of an approximate investment of around EUR one million. A Maltese passport automatically grants the people access to live and work in any EU country, and thus has been strongly criticized by the EU. The European Commission says that the programme violates EU law, and has contributed to a rise in financial scandals like fraud, money laundering and embezzlement. Moreover, the recently published state budget suggests that the scheme will bring EUR 40 million less in 2023 than the last cycle. Malta had profited EUR 61 million from this scheme in 2021, but 2022 estimates indicate a drop to EUR 30 million. While the government has no intention of scrapping the scheme, the validity of the scheme will be examined by the EU Court of Justice, where it has been accused of infringement by the Commission. (Alice Taylor, “Malta’s cash-for-passport scheme is on the rocks, government ploughs ahead,” EURACTIV, 27 October 2022)

SWEDEN
Energy subsidy is planned to be introduced for Southern Sweden
On 27 October, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Energy and Business Minister Ebba Busch announced an energy subsidy package for those hit by high prices. The energy subsidy aims to lessen the burden on all households and businesses, which consumes less energy. The subsidy is aimed at the most affected citizens, especially in Southern Sweden. Sweden’s General Director of Svenska Kaftnat (the Swedish National Grid), Lotta Medelius-Bredhe, announced that the subsidy plan would provide SWK 55 billion to five million energy customers in Southern Sweden. The subsidy was promised to begin from 01 November by Kristersson before the election. Kristersson did not mention the beginning of the promised subsidy after the election. (“Sweden’s new government announces 55bn kronor power price subsidy,” THE LOCAL se, 27 October 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Estonia urges Rishi Sunak to raise defence spending
On 27 October, Estonia’s Foreign Miniter Urmas Reinsalu urged the UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to raise defence spending to match two per cent of the UK’s GDP. As a fellow NATO member, Reinsalu said that it was important for all NATO members to increase their defence spending. . Currently, the UK has a defence spending of a little more than two per cent of its GDP. Estonia is said to have spent around 2.3 per cent of its GDP on defence expenditure in 2022 and the Estonian government hopes to increase this to three per cent by 2024. According to Reinsalu: "To defend our values - the rules based order - we need also to invest to the weapons," When asked about the presence of the UK-led battle group and its planned withdrawal of 900 soldiers, Reinsalu believes that the withdrawal must not happen and instead it should be increased. The UK Ministry of Defence responded saying: "Our commitment to Nato and Estonia in response to Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine is absolute." (“Rishi Sunak urged to raise defence spending by Estonia,” BBC, 27 October 2022)
 
Latvian parliament approves amendments for annuling mandates of MEPs 
On 27 October, the Latvian parliament passed amendments to the law that outlines conditions  for annulling the mandate of elected members of the European Parliament (MEP) from Latvia. The new amendment says that if the MEP is found guilty of a Criminal Act they will lose their contest for seat. Previously the law stated that it would be annulled if “found guilty of a crime of a specific category” with the category being a severe crime, especially in Latvia and if their criminal record is not erased. The new amendment extends this to any person who has served in USSR, this includes Latvian SSR security, intelligence or counter-intelligence service (with exceptions), members of the PSKP (GCP), the Latvian SSR Workers’ International Front, the Joint Council of Labour Collectives, the War and Labour Veterans Organisation, the Latvian Public Rescue Committee or its regional committees after 13 January 1991. (“Latvian MEPs found guilty of criminal acts to lose their mandate,” Baltic News Network, 27 October 2022)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to discuss Greece-Turkey relations with Mitsotakis
On 27 October, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis marking the beginning of an official trip. The primary issues that will be discussed are the tank swap deal, the energy crisis and Greek-Turkish tension. In terms of the tank swap deal signed, Greece expects to receive 40 Soviet-era tanks of which the first six have been sent by Germany. These tanks are scheduled later for Ukraine. Scholz and Mitsotakis will aim to enhance their bilateral economic relations, so far, in the first eight months of 2022, German exports to Greece has risen by 16.3 per cent than the same period last month. (Tasos Kokkinidis, “Greece-Germany Deepen Ties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz Visit,” Greek Reporter, 27 October 2022)
 
Hungary and Georgia’s Prime Ministers meet to enhance bilateral relations
On 27 October, the Prime Ministers of Hungary and Georgia, Victor Orban and Irakli Garibashvili met and signed a declaration on strategic partnership and strengthening bilateral cooperation. Garibashvili thanked Orban for Hungary’s vocal support to Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration and its territorial integrity. He also thanked Orban for Hungary’s contribution to the EU monitoring missions in areas adjacent to Russia occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Also at the meeting, the two leaders discussed the issue of electricity and securing enough supply of the same. Orban said that he would be interested in receiving electricity from Azerbaijan through Romania and Georgia, and that high capacity transmission liners would be used for them. He also mentioned that if this electricity comes in by next year, Hungary will be able to stop buying natural gas for electricity. (“Georgian PM thanks Hungarian counterpart for “vocal support” for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration, territorial integrity,” agenda.ge, 27 October 2022; “Hungarian PM says country interested in receiving electricity from Azerbaijan through Georgia, Romania,” agenda.ge, 27 October 2022; “Georgian, Hungarian PMs sign strategic partnership declaration,”agenda.ge, 27 October 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Taiwan delegations visiting Latvia and Lithuania
On 27 October, the South China Morning Post reported on the Taiwanese delegation’s visit to Latvia and Lithuania. Reportedly the delegation visited Latvia on 24 and 25 October and is in Lithuania for the rest of the week. The delegation led by Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of the National Science and Technology Council Lin Minn-tsong is meeting the education and technology officials from Latvia and Lithuania. The three countries are looking to improve relations in the technology sector. Taiwan produces around 60 per cent of the world’s semiconductors and this meeting will be instrumental in solving the supply chain crisis of chips in Europe. China has not yet reacted to this visit but the assistant professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University, Taipei Chen Yi-fan is sure that China will not be quiet. Latvia and Lithuania’s relations with China over the past year have soured as the former two countries are developing closer relations with Taiwan. Chen Yi-fan said that this visit shows that “Taiwan is trying to expand its international influence in terms of technology by helping small or developing countries build foundations.” (Ralph Jennings “Taiwan delegation looks to build tech ties with Latvia, Lithuania amid China tensions,” South China Morning Post, 27 October 2022) 
 
Israel and Turkey restore defence ties after a decade 
On 27 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar met with Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz in Ankara where the two nations restored their security ties after a decade. In the meeting, both Erdogan and Gantz expressed their commitment to “promote stability, prosperity and security” in Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. After the meeting between the two Defence Ministers, at a joint press conference, Gantz said that this visit “is a clear signal for positive developments ahead.” The relations between the two countries fell apart when Turkey continued its support for Hamas. At the same time, the two countries’ security agencies were collaborating to ensure the safety of Israelis and Jews in and travelling to Turkey from “Iranian Plots”. Gantz said that “We are thankful to President Erdogan, Minister Akar and the security agencies involved in this crucial, life-saving cooperation.” Gantz added that this cooperation shows the potential collaboration between the two countries when they renew their ties. ​​(“Gantz restores security ties with Turkey during visit,” The Jerusalem Post, 27 October 2022)
 
US Sanctions Moldovan individuals for influencing political systems with Russia
On 26 October, the Biden administration imposed sanctions on over 20 Moldovan and Russian individuals and organizations. They have been accused of helping Russia’s efforts to manipulate the political system in Moldova. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken released a statement on the same and singled out two Moldovan oligarchs, Vladimir Plahotniuc and Ilan Shor who allegedly have tried to capture and corrupt Moldova’s judiciary and law enforcement institutions. Blinken referred to the two men as “fugitive oligarchs” who were prominent in Moldova’s politics will 2014 till they were accused to be involved in a money laundering scheme which stole USD 1 billion from Moldovan banks. The sanctions will freeze their assets in the US and also deny them or their families US visas. (Michael Crowley, “New U.S. sanctions target Russian efforts to manipulate the politics in Moldova, a neighbor of Ukraine,” The New York Times, 26 October 2022)

 


27 October 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #342

War in Ukraine: Day 245 | Russia's holds nuclear and missile exercise

Finland passes new Abortion Law; Estonian energy company owned LNG terminal begins operation in Finland; EU states has divided perspective in energy treaty

Photo : Kremlin.ru


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee

BELARUS
Lukashenko urges to protect critical infrastructure from cyberattacks
On 25 October, in a meeting on cybersecurity, Belarus’s President Aleksandr Lukashenko warned against increasing instances of cyberattacks, which especially target important facilities, government agencies, enterprises and the banking system. Terming the attacks as a form of hybrid warfare, to harm the economy and destabilize society. Lukashenko said that Belarus’s Operations and Analysis Center had been instructed to involve experts and a proposal has been submitted to prepare for counteraction against cyberattacks. He said that Belarus should first understand what infrastructure might be more vulnerable to such attacks. (“Lukashenko calls to ensure security of vital infrastructure against cyber attacks,” BELTA, 25 October 2022)
 
FINLAND
New abortion law introduced
On 26 October, Finland’s Parliament voted for a new law to ease the process for women to get an abortion. The voting ratio for the new abortion law by the MPs was 125:41. One abstained, and 32 were absent from the voting. The law enabled women to abort their pregnancies without the opinion of two doctors. Abortion procedure can be done up to 12 weeks of pregnancy. The law states that a pregnant woman’s request and consent are sufficient to undergo an abortion unlike the rule that allows abortion only if the health of the mother or the foeteus is in danger. While all MPs of the Christian Democrats voted against the new abortion law, MPs from the centre and basic Finns introduced the proposal for the law. (Anne Orjala, “Getting an abortion is getting easier - see how your MP voted,” yle.fi, 26 October, “Parliament approved the new abortion law,” yle.fi, 26 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Belarus’s trade with Russia’s Astrakhan grows to USD 48 million in 2022
On 26 October, BELTA reported on Belarus’s Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko meeting with the Governor of Russia's Astrakhan Oblast Igor Babushkin. Between 2021 and 2022, the trade had grown by 2.5 per cent to more than USD 48 million. Golovchenko said that in trade in agricultural machines grew but identified that there is potential for cooperation in the field of municipal vehicles too. He welcomed the “attractive terms” of an agreement on transhipping and storing large volumes of timber, sawn timber, chemical substances, mineral fertilizers, trucks etc. from Belarus, through ports in the Astrakhan Oblast. Golovchenko and Babushkin also discussed the establishment of a logistic hub within the special economic zone frameworks of these ports. (“Prime minister pleased with growing trade between Belarus, Russia's Astrakhan Oblast,” BELTA, 26 October 2022; “Ways to advance Belarus' cooperation with Russia's Astrakhan Oblast discussed,” BELTA, 26 October 2022; “Belarus to ship timber, chemicals, fertilizers, trucks via Astrakhan ports,” BELTA, 26 October 2022)

Frontex to assist border control in North Macedonia 
On 26 October, Euronews reported that the EU had signed an agreement with North Macedonia on cooperation and management efforts at the country’s borders. The signing of the accord involving EU’s frontier agency, Frontex, was witnessed by European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, and North Macedonia’s Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovačevski. As per the agreement, Frontex will be able to assist North Macedonia manage their migratory flows, counter illegal immigration and deal with cross-border crime. On this issue, Von der Leyen, who appreciated North Macedonia’s progress for their EU negotiation process said: "I promised you that we would get the Frontex agreement signed and translate it into the Macedonian language... And today we delivered." (“The EU and North Macedonia sign migration agreement,” Euronews, 26 October 2022)

Norway and Russia agree on fish quotas despite the Ukraine war
On 26 October, The Norwegian-Russian Joint Fishery Commission agreed to cod quotas of 566,784 tons in the Barents and Norwegian Sea for 2023. Norway will get a share of 260,782 tons. Russia had agreed to share the Barents Sea fishing if Norway did not impose further sanctions on Russia-owned trawlers to port in northern Norway. The Russian part of the Barents Sea has always been a difficult spot to fish for Norwegians due to military activities of Russia. Commercial fishing was closed off without prior announcement in the Russian areas. The joint commission has enabled easy fishing for the Norwegians and has kept the Barents Sea as one of the best sustainable fishing areas in the world. (Thomas Nilsen, “Norway, Russia seal deal on fish quotas amid growing tensions,” The Barents Observer, 26 October 2022)
 
First LNG Terminal with Estonia direct investment starts operating in Finland
On 26 October, Baltic Times reported that an LNG terminal, where Estonian energy company Alexela has the largest direct investment has started operations in Finland. The terminal which at Finland’s largest port, the HaminaKotka, and is the country’s first LNG terminal to be connected to the national gas network. The LNG cargo arriving at the terminal is sent to the high-pressure Finnish transmission network, which then transfers the LNG through trucks and the Baltic connectorr. The project was started in 2015 and is seeing completing before Europe’s impending energy crisis. On this issue, the Chairman of the Management Board of Alexela AS, Martin Haal applauded the inauguration of the terminal and said: “… not just a coloured dot on the map, but it marks the creation of a new supply chain independent of Russian gas in our region.” (“Estonia's largest direct investment in Finland: Alexela brings the first LNG carrier to Hamina,” The Baltic Times, 26 October 2022) 

UK’s Border Force reports increasing influx of migrants from Albania
On 26 October, UK’s Home Affairs Committee was informed by Border Force offcials that one to two percent of the male population in Albania, accounted for around 10,000 men and an additional 2000 women and children who arrived to UK in small boats. The Home Office's clandestine Channel threat commander, Dan O’Mahoney reported on the increase of Albanian migrants and said that this influx was catalysing both the illegal migration issue and the asylum problem in the UK. He also mentioned how some of these Albanians seeking asylum have include themselves in criminal gangs dealing with Drug smuggling, human trafficking, guns, prostitution. MPs on the Committee were also informed that only four per cent of the total asylum applications have been processed in 2021 and the cost of housing the rest in hotels and detention centres rising to EUR 5.6 per day. (Faye Brown, “'Exponential rise' in Albanian migrants crossing the Channel this year, MPs told,” Sky News, 26 October 2022)

France and the Netherlands plan to exit from the Energy Charter Treaty
On 25 October, Deutsche Welle reported that France and the Netherlands revealed their intention to leave the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) due to it not coinciding with their climate goals. Spain and Poland defected earlier in 2022, and Italy in 2016 from the ECT. Fossil fuel investors have submitted lawsuits against European countries for changing to renewable energy sources as they will incur losses. The ECT, pressured by litigations, has allowed fossil fuel usage and slowed down the green energy transition in Europe. The energy crisis related to the war in Ukraine also made Europe decide to use coal and reactivate coal power plants. Spain, Italy, Poland, France and the Netherlands do not comply with the usage of fossil fuels as it will increase the CO2 emission and thereby delay their climate goals. (Stuart Braun, “EU states 'revolt' against controversial energy treaty,” Deutsche Welle, 25 October 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Lithuania and Japan mark 100 years of friendship, vows to increase bilateral cooperation
On 26 October, Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Ingrida Simonyte and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met in Tokyo and decided to upgrade their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. The leaders discussed three main issues. First, marking 100 years of friendship between Lithuania and Japan, a new security dialogue was launched by which knowledge and information about international security issues will be shared. Kishida hailed the success of the "Visa for Life" of SUGIURA Chiune and committed Japan’s support to Lithuania given Russia’s war in Ukraine. He also invited Lithuania to the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo where bilateral economic relations would get priority. Second, the two leaders discussed on regional issues alluding to the war in Lithuania’s neighbourhood and condemned Russia’s threat of using nuclear weapons. The issue of China trying to change the status-quo in the Indo Pacific by force was also discussed, and both Japan and Lithuania committed to an “open and free Indo-Pacific.” Third, they reiterated their support for the United Nations and welcomed a restructuring of the UNSC, following Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. (“Japan- Lithuania Summit Meeting and Working Dinner,” mofa.go.jp, 26 October 2022; “Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership between the Government of Japan and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania,” mofa.go.jp, 26 October 2022
 
Chinese centers to be investigated for the illegal treatment of dissidents in the Netherlands
On 26 October, the Netherlands’ Foreign Ministry announced that it would investigate reports on Chinese centers for illegal conduct towards Chinese dissidents in the country. The Chinese government did not inform the Foreign Ministry of the Netherlands about the centers. Services such as renewing Chinese driver's licenses or declaring changes in marital status are legally undertaken by the centers. However, they have been putting the dissident Chinese under pressure to return to China by various heinous means, such as harassment, torture, abuse and threats to the family members and those charged with crimes in China are sent back home to be tried for their crimes. The centers located in Rotterdam and Amsterdam are  directly connected to the police force in the Lishui prefecture of China’s Zhejiang province and Fuzhou city in Fujian province. (“Netherlands probes 'illegal' Chinese police stations,” Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2022)   


War in Ukraine: Day 245
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 26 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening their positions on the frontline and are decreasing the Russian army’s capabilities by destroying their logistical ability. He said that while there have not been any significant changes, the battle in Donetsk is still going on and is their fiercest one yet.
  
On 26 October, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk urged Ukrainian refugees to not return back home during winter to avoid stress on energy resources. Previous Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure had stretched the remaining ones causing frequent blackouts to save up for winter. Vereshchu requested the refugees to continue their stay until spring when the demand for energy would decrease drastically and energy infrastructure would be back. 
 
On 26 October, the Security Service of Ukraine (SUB) posted a video on Facebook showing the demolition of a Russian observation post and assault group. This retaliation was conducted by SBU’s Alpha Special Ops Centre in an overnight scouting exercise where the observation and assault group were discovered. 
 
On 26 October, Zaporizhzhia’s Regional Military Administration, Head Oleksandr Starukh reported that 540 people have been kidnapped and captured in the Russian-occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region. Starukh further detailed that out of the 540 captured 208 still remain in captivity and the rest have been released. Dniprorudne mayor Yevhen Matveyev and Enerhodar’s first deputy mayor Ivan Samoydiuk are still in captivity, and there has been no update about their whereabouts.  
 
On 26 October, press service of the National Police of Ukarine released the documentation of the 28 Russian stikes in Dontesk. They reported that Russia had shelled 13 settlements in Dontesk targeting civilian and residential buildings. The report outlined that the stikes hit eleven civilian objects, six residential buildings, a coke-chemical plant, a technical school, a garage and farm buildings. The Police reported that Bakhmut was attacked four times and a civilian was killed in one such strike.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 26 October, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported on Russia's nuclear force exercise. Shoigu said that "In accordance with the Russian Armed Forces’ training schedule an exercise is being held to practice command and control of the Armed Forces, including the tasks of carrying out a massive nuclear strike by the strategic nuclear forces in retaliation for the enemy’s nuclear strike." In the exercise, the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile and the Sineva ballistic missile were launched along with cruise missiles from two Tu-95MS. The Kremlin website confirmed that the missiles hit all their targets and the set-out tasks for the exercise were completed.

On 26 October, Russia’s Deputy Permanent Representative Dmitry Peskov told the press that Russia presented evidence regarding Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’ Though he declined to elaborate on the outcome of the session, Peskov expressed that they will continue to bring the attention of the international community to this and hope to stop Kyiv. 
 
On 26 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his concerns regarding alleged black market weapons sales in Ukraine. At the 51st meeting of The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) council, Putin said that these black market arms deals encouraged cross-border criminal groups to smuggle weapons to other regions. Putin elaborated on the types of arms being smuggled saying "We are not only talking about small arms. Risks remain that more powerful weapons may fall into the hands of criminals, including portable anti-aircraft missile systems and high-precision weapons." 
 
On 26 October, Russia’s Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu held talks with Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, where the two discussed the matter of Ukraine and Shoigu updated Singh on Russia’s concern regarding Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’ In the talk with he discussed Russia’s concern on Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’
 
On 26 October, the Russian Defence Ministry published a report on the special military operation in Ukraine. The Russian Armed Forces have taken down 326 airplanes, 162 helicopters, 2,349 unmanned aerial vehicles, 383 anti-aircraft missile systems, 6,084 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles, 874 combat vehicles with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,527 field artillery cannons and mortars, and 6,791 units of special military hardware. The Ministry reported that they have curtailed Ukrainian forces in LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia region from advancing and have destroyed their military posts and equipment. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 26 October, Lithuania's Defence Chief Valdemaras Rupšys expressed his disagreement with providing PzH 2000 howitzers and NASAMS air defence system to Ukraines. Rupšys said that they will honour their commitments to NATO, but not at the cost of their security. According to him providing Ukraine with military aid should be replaced by making purchases of new military equipment so that the military capability of Lithuania and its security is not compromised. When Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis was asked about the military aid, he said the decision will be taken by the State Defence Council but reiterated that any aid given to Ukraine should include military aid. 
 
On the same day, the EU implored its member nations to plan for the collective purchase of military equipment in order to get a better price and replenish their stock of stocks of air and missile defence, ammunition, anti-tank and artillery systems and drones after providing military aid to Ukraine, the sudden rise in demand has led to the equipment becoming more expensive. The head of EU’s diplomatic service's security and defence division Stijn Mols urged member states to keep their differences aside and come together to maintain the security of the continent. According to Mols European investment in defence was lacking when compared to the US or China.
  
On 26 October, AP News reported on the recent fall in prices of gas and electricity in Europe. It outlined the fall was due to warmer climate and the filling up of gas reserves by European countries through alternative sources after Russia decreased gas supply. According to energy experts from the Center for European Studies the volatility of energy markets due to new sanctions and policies and the unknowns regarding the demand from Asia might change this reduction. They also cautioned against a potential backlash from the people during winter if they are asked to limit their energy consumption.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 26 October, Latvian Speaker of the Saeima Ināra Mūniece was given a state award “the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, II degree, in the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia” from Ukraine. The decree was issued by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that the award was for “significant personal accomplishments.”  The awardee added that it was in great honour and a high commendation for Latvia to receive constant support from Ukraine and that Latvia would sustain its help in giving Russia “the just punishment for the crimes it has committed.”
 
On 26 October, Saudi Aramco reported that the oil markets are adapting to the sanctions imposed on Russia by redirecting crude flows to Asia from Europe and other players switching their production. The CEO of Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser said that there is a realignment that is occurring, Saudi Aramco said that the Russians are able to place their crude in various markets and that the discounts they are making use of are helping them overcome the challenges in securing insurance and shipping for oil. Adding that there are logistical issues, the head of Aramco said that Russia is able to handle these issues with the right discounts. 
 
On 26 October, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held talks with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. The meeting was requested by Shoigu to address Russia’s concerns regarding Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’ Singh reaffirmed India’s stance that the conflict should be resolved through diplomatic talks and that the nuclear option should not be considered by both sides.    
 
On 26 October, Mercedes announced its deportation from Russia, becoming the latest  Western company to pull out from the country. The German-based firm halted its manufacturing and exporting in early March, and has said that it “will withdraw” from the Russian market and sell shares to a local investor. This pull-out comes after Ford confirmed on 26 October that it had finalised a deal to leave the Russian market as well. Along with Japan’s Nissan leaving the market and experiencing a USD 700 million loss, the chief financial officer of Mercedes added that this exit would not have any real effect on the company’s profits.

References
Ukraine needs victory over Russia, in particular in energy sphere – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 26 October 2022
Ukrainian Refugees Should Not Return in Winter – Deputy Prime Minister,” Kyiv Post, 26 October 2022 
SBU shows raw footage of sniper team destroying Russian observation post,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022 
208 people remain in Russian captivity in Zaporizhzhia region,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022
Malyar: Armed Forces of Ukraine holding active defense in Kherson region,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022
Casualties reported as Russia launches 28 strikes on Donetsk region,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022 
Russia to take vigorous steps in response to Kiev’s threats to use 'dirty bomb' — Kremlin,” Tass 26 October 
Putin warns of danger coming from Ukraine’s black market weapons sales,” Tass, 26 October 2022
Russian and Chinese defence ministers discuss situation in Ukraine,” eng.mil.ru, 26 October 2022
Russian and Indian defence ministers hold telephone talks,” eng.mil.ru, 26 October 2022
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,”  eng.mil.ru, 26 October 2022
Russia holds exercise to practice massive retaliatory nuclear strike — Shoigu,” Tass, 26 October 2022
"Lithuania should not give howitzers, anti-air systems to Ukraine, says defence chief,” lrt.it, 26 October 2022
David McHugh “Gas crunch eases in Europe — but the respite might not last,” AP News, 26 October 2022
EU urges members to coordinate arms purchases,” swissinfo.ch, 26 October 2022
Russian bombings of civilian infrastructure raise cost of Ukraine's recovery: IMF,” Reuters, 26 October 2022
Telephonic conversation between Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh & Defence Minister of Russia Mr Sergei Shoigu,” pib.gov.in, 26 October 2022
Global Oil Flows Shift as Russia’s Hit By Sanctions, Says Aramco,” Bloomberg, 26 October 2022
Latvian Saeima Speaker gets Ukrainian state award,” eng.lsm.lv, 26 October 2022
Mercedes-Benz becomes latest Western company to pull out of Russia,” BBC, 26 October 2022


26 October 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #341

Finland and the Nordic border barriers | War in Ukraine: Day 244

Strain in France-Germany relations; The EU grants Malta funds to promote climate neutral systems; Second run-off election in Slovenia

Photo : AP Photo/Kin Cheung


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan 

Finland:  Ministry of Foreign Affairs report on the removal of Nordic border barriers
On 17 October, Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs posed a request to the government to review its report on the steps taken in removing the cross-border barriers between the Nordic countries. The removal of the border barrier work began in 2012 and became part of the government programme under Prime Minister Sanna Marin. The work aims to integrate the Nordic and promote mobility, as part of the programme, the leaders of the Nordic countries signed a “joint vision” to collaborate with the Nordic governments. According to Minister for Nordic Cooperation and Equality Thomas Blomqvist: “Free movement is one of the cornerstones of Nordic cooperation, and removing cross-border barriers is a key to facilitating integration and movement in the Nordic countries. Removing cross-border barriers will benefit everyone, individuals and companies alike.”

Border Barriers Council: A brief note
The Border Barriers Council was formed in 2014 under the Council of Ministers which consists of one representative from each Nordic country along with Åland, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland. It includes a representative from the Nordic Council and the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers. The key task of the Council is to “identify, prioritise and propose solutions,” to help the capable authorities in carrying out the removal of the border barriers. Since the council cannot act as a body to resolve the problems relating to the cross-borders, it only operates to identify the problems and propose solutions for the national authorities to implement action. Every year the Council identifies priority issues that form part of the border barrier database and will be brought back for discussion if it remains unresolved. Till now 80 such obstacles in the removal of the border barriers have been put forward by the Council and of which between 2019 and 2021,50 border barriers were prioritized and 20 were resolved. For 2022, the focus areas of the Council are: “…digitalisation, mutual recognition of Nordic vocational qualifications, tax matters and cooperation with population registers.”

From Nordic countries to the EU: A brief review of the major actors
First, among the Nordic countries, Finland is one of the major actors in the border barriers work, where the management is not centered on one ministry but works based on “Interministerial cooperation,” where each ministry and the authority will be responsible for the obstacles rising from their respective branch.

Second, the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Prime Ministers of the Nordic Co-operation look into the policy areas, work towards a vision of an integrated Nordic region, and act as a link between the countries and the national governments. The Secretariat of the Council plans meetings, updates the database of border barriers, and helps in coordinating the cross-border barrier cooperation between actors.

Third, the Pohjola-Norden's Advisory Board works as a Finnish border barrier network consisting of representatives from ministries across the Nordic countries, the Nordic Norden Council, and the Nordic Council's Border Barriers Group. This network promotes the exchange of information, prevents border barriers, and helps in conducting a meeting at the national level before the Border Barriers Council meetings.

Fourth, Info Pohjola is a joint Nordic advisory service operating in all five Nordic countries including the islands. It promotes mobility by providing information in more than seven languages spoken in the Nordic on studies, work, and businesses to promote students, start-ups, and job exchanges.

Fifth, the EU. Norway and Iceland are not EU member states yet are part of the European Economic Area (EEA). Any regulations passed by the EU will influence the Nordic and implementations of such directives can cause border barriers. To avoid, carrying out the regulations in a uniform way across the Nordic and work dually with the EU for smoother mobility and coinciding laws to resolve the border barriers between the Nordic countries. Therefore, at the EU level through SOLVIT the representative of all the EU member states and the Nordic including Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein will meet to discuss the application of the EU legislation to align it with the Border Barrier work for an integrated Nordic region.

References
Request for an opinion on the draft for the Government's report on Nordic border barriers,” lausuntopalvelu.fi, 17 October 2022
Ministry for Foreign Affairs requests comments on draft government report on Nordic cross-border barriers,” finlandabroad.fi, 17 October 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee, Madhura Mahesh and Sai Pranav

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
Dodik supporters protest election commission’s order of recounting votes
On 25 October, thousands of people in Bosnia and Herzegovina protested the election commission’s decision to recount the votes cast in the presidential election in Repubika Srpska. The protestors alleged that the election commission was trying to silence the will of the Serb people in electing the pro-Russian Milorad Dodik. The votes are being recounted as Dodik’s main contender; independent candidate Jelena Trivic alleged that Dodik’s SNSD party had rigged the election. So far, the election commission has informed the judicial authorities in the country about a few dozen fake ballots that have been found. (“Bosnia: Thousands protest recount of vote in Serb-run region,” ABC News, 26 October 2022)


BULGARIA
Caretaker government to not present 2023 budget plan 
On 25 October, Bulgaria’s Finance Minister Rositsa Velkova announced in the parliament that they would not be presenting the 2023 budget plan. Instead, they are proposing to extend the budget period of the 2022 budget till a new regular government comes into power. This is a shift in the position of the caretaker government which presented a 2023 budget draft on 20 October. The draft outlined a 6.6 per cent fiscal shortfall and a revised debt estimate of about BGN 16 billion. Velkova suggested that the new government can use this estimate and draft to build the new 2023 budget plan. This comes amid Bulgaria’s plan to adopt the euro by January 2024. The caretaker government said that they would neither be presenting a budget that would breach the EU’s fiscal stability rules nor a budget that would be within the EU’s deficit limit of three per cent as it would mean huge spending cuts. All of this comes as there is a political impasse in the country after the election held on 02 October. (“Bulgaria’s caretaker government gives up on 2023 budget plan,” Euractiv, 25 October 2022)

DENMARK
New offshore wind power farms to be constructed in Denmark
On 25 October, THE LOCAL dk reported that Denmark’s Partially owned power company Orsted is planning to build four offshore wind power farms that could increase Denmark’s current wind power capacity by 100 per cent. The company will agree with the investment firm Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) to build turbine facilities capable of producing 5.2 gigawatts of wind power. Two turbine farms will be located off the west coast of Jutland and two near the coast of Bornholm, a Baltic Sea Island. The construction is hoped to be finished by 2027 or 2028. The increase in energy will help Denmark focus on producing green hydrogen and fuels. Although the agreement is yet to be approved by the authorities, Orsted and CIP hope it will be granted by the end of 2022. (“Danish offshore wind energy deal could double country’s capacity,” THE LOCAL dk, 25 October 2022)


GERMANY
Germany and France cooperation back in tussle
On 25 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the widening gap between France and Germany upon the recent announcement to postpone the ministerial meeting. France and Germany which are seen as centric force to the EU, the cooperation in terms of joint air defence programme, granting emergency energy package, nuclear energy and building a new hydrogen and gas pipeline, both have been consciously leaving out from the collaborations. According to Deputy Director of the German-Franco Institute: "German and French heads of state have often had to go through a learning curve to understand that the EU cannot function without the Franco-German couple." (Lisa Louis, “France-Germany tensions 'hamstring EU's capacity to act',” Deutsche Welle, 25 October 2022)


Germany and China’s Cosco settle the dispute over Hamburg port terminal
On 26 October, German cabinet in a clash with China’s shipping company Cosco in buying a stake in a Hamburg port terminal, Germany agreed for a compromise which allows China’s Cosco to hold a small share of 24.9 per cent instead of 35 per cent as per the earlier plan. It was done to continue its economic ties with China and to avoid higher dependency. According to a Germany’s ministers, the caution signal remains as they fear it might lead China to influence the activities of the port and have a larger effect on its long-term economic stability. (“Germany agrees on compromise over China port bid: reports,” Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2022)


MALTA
EU grants Malta JTF to promote climate neutrality
On 25 October, Malta’s Territorial Just Transition Fund (JTF) was allocated. Malta will get EUR 23 million from the EU grant to transition into climate neutral systems, especially in the maritime sector. On this issue, Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans spoke “Greening the transport and maritime sector is one the biggest challenges for Malta’s transition to a climate-neutral future.” Commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms, Elisa Ferreira highlighted on the issue and said that it was imperative to transform into carbon neutrality as the maritime transport sector accounts for 6 per cent of Malta’s economy but is a significant contributor to the country’s greenhouse emissions. As an initiative under the fund, Malta’s international ports will be decarbonized and install electric power supply to ships on shore. (“EU Cohesion Policy: €23 million for a just climate transition in Malta,” ec.europa.eu, 25 October 2022)


SERBIA
New government to be elected seven months after the election
On 25 October, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic announced that a new government led by Prime Minister Ana Brnabic will be voted on by the parliament later this week. This will be Brnabic’s third term as Serbia’s premier.  Speaking at the parliament, Vucic said that the new government will have 25 ministries with three new ministries of the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Technological Development, the Ministry of Tourism and Youth, and the Ministry of Public Investment. He said that the voting process will be a long one and hopes that the new government will be formed by 27 October. Serbia went to polls on 03 April to elect a new president and the members of the parliament and local authorities. (“Serbia to form government 7 months after elections,” Anadolu Agency, 25 October 2022) 

SLOVENIA
Slovenia goes into second run-off round in presidential race
On 24 October, Euractiv reported that Slovenia, which is amidst its presidential elections will be going into a run-off second round. None of the seven candidates contesting the election got outright majority and thus the top two candidates will be facing each other again in another election on 13 November. In the first round, former Foreign Minister under the third conservative Janez Jansa cabinet, Anze Logar led the race with nearly 34 per cent. He is a member of the eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Slovenian Democratic Party (SDP). Following closely behind in the presidential race is lawyer and rights advocate Natasa Pirc Musar with 27 per cent, who is vying to become the first female president of Slovenia. (“Former foreign minister wins first round of presidential election,” EURACTIV, 24 October 2022)


UKRAINE
Finance Minister projects an increase in inflation due to a lack of fiscal funding
On 25 October, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko projected a grim future for rising inflation in Ukraine while speaking at the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference. According to Marchenko, the country is facing a USD 37.9 billion shortage in fiscal needs for 2023 and an inflation rate of 30 per cent which will spill over to 2023. Till now the largest macroeconomic monetary funder has been the National Bank of Ukraine which has stepped into increasing liquidity and printing more money. The West and other international allies have provided minimum macro financial aid to Ukraine. Marchenko has expressed that the government cannot handle more spending cuts and this was echoed by the head of German Council Foreign Relations and Economist Guntram Wolff who added that such budget cuts would hamper the growth of Ukraine. (“Ukraine’s finance minister warns of inflation if $37.9bn fiscal needs not funded,” Euractiv, 25 October 2022)

REGIONAL
EU members projected to not reach 2030 targets to reduce Roma poverty
On 25 October, the Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) published the results of a survey conducted to understand the plight of the Roma community and the effects of the 2020 EU agreement to lift the community from poverty by 2030. The survey was conducted in Croatia, Czechia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Romania, Spain, North Macedonia and Serbia. The results published showed that while some have seen better living conditions, the poverty rate in the community has seen no change in the past few years. The FRA referenced the 2020 agreement and called the implementation to be slow. The FRA projects that the EU will not reach their 2030 target as there is little to no progress in educating the community and the employment rate of the Roma remains low. Except for Hungary and Italy which have achieved their 2030 target for employment, the rest of the nations are nowhere near the target. The FRA revealed that 33 per cent of the responders reported anti-gypseous attitudes which have only increased since the pandemic. FRA Director Michael O’Flaherty called out the surveyed nations saying “These findings underline how EU and national laws and policies still do not deliver on the fundamental rights of Roma that will change their daily lives.” (“EU countries far from reaching 2030 targets to cut Roma poverty, survey finds,” Euractiv, 25 October 2022) 

Defence Ministers of Turkey and Hungary sign new Military agreement
On 24 October, the Defense Ministers of Hungary and Turkey met in Turkey to sign a new military agreement. The new agreement includes the fresh purchase of military equipment by Hungary, intelligence sharing, joint exercises, training and logistics and defence sector cooperation. Hungarian Defence Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky said that through this new deal Hungary will be buying 40 Turkish Ejder Yalçın armoured combat vehicles and future purchase of Turkish military drones. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar expressed that the agreement was based on the relations between the leaders of the two countries and that development of relations between Hungary and Turkey will only move forward. On 25 October, the two Ministers inaugurated the Hungarian Gallipoli Monument which commemorates the fallen Hungarian soldiers who fought alongside Turkey in the Dardanelles Wars.   (“Turkey deepens ties with Orbán’s Hungary,” Nordic Monitor, 26 October 2022)   

Austria’s Energy Minister warns against gas price caps as EU Energy ministers meet
On 25 October, the EU energy ministers met in Luxembourg to discuss issues like a “dynamic price corridor” and the ways to tackle the impending energy crisis in Europe. However, as gas price caps come with its own set of risks like affecting the security of supply and impacting existing and long-term contracts. On this issue, Austria’s Energy Minister, Leonore Gewessler said: “If enormous price jumps happen with small volumes during the day, then the market is suspended. The same thing must now be done on the gas market.” Moreover, on the same day, Europe's leading trading hub Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) said that gas prices had fallen from EUR 100 per megawatt-hour to EUR 95 per megawatt-hour for the first time since June 2022. Gewessler also mentioned that a similar mechanism like the Iberian cap by which Spain and Portugal have subsidised gas burned for electricity should be applied to other EU countries. (Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, “Austria concerned as EU executive continues work on gas price cap,” EURACTIV, 26 October 2022; Jorge Liboreiro, “Energy crisis: Europe's gas prices fall below €100 MWh for the first time since mid-June,” Euronews, 25 October 2022)


ENERGY
Romania was found guilty of violating the Energy Charter Treaty
On 25 October, a panel of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruled against the Romanian government and found it guilty of violating the Energy Charter Treaty. This was concerning a case launched by ten investors in Romania’s solar power plants led by Austrian company LSG Group in 2018. The investors were from Austria, the Netherlands, Germany, and Cyprus. This decision is not final and the ICSID has asked the two parties to negotiate compensation. This case was launched when the Romanian government decreased the number of incentives given to investors in the solar power plant. The incentives were a green certificate scheme in 2008 for encouraging renewable sources of energy in Romania. The government from 2013 onwards started to reduce the number of green certificates and delayed payment. This was done by the Romanian government to allegedly combat the rising energy prices in the country and reduce over-compensation. (“Romania loses arbitration versus investors in solar power,” Balkan Green Energy News, 25 October 2022)

Decreasing gas prices in Europe are making electricity in Finland cheaper
On 25 October, yle reported that due to decreasing gas prices in Europe, electricity in Finland is becoming cheaper. Finland does not produce any electricity with gas yet stability in the energy market is being reflected in Finnish prices. The decrease in gas prices is being credited to warmer weather than expected and increasing gas stocks. Finnish electricity is imported from Norway and Sweden who source it from Baltic and Central European Countries. These countries produce electricity with gas and fluctuating gas prices had increased the price of Swedish and Norwegian electricity which in turn increased the electricity rates in Finland. The price decrease is expected to be a long-term one with new EU policies being introduced to source gas from alternative suppliers. (“The price of gas is now falling sharply - it also makes electricity cheaper in Finland and Europe,” yle.fi, 25 October 2022)  


INTERNATIONAL
Slovenia and Algeria hold bilateral talks  
On 25 October, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and the President of the People’s National Assembly of Algeria Ibrahim Boughali held talks during the latter’s official visit to Slovenia. The two discussed the pressing bilateral issues with a special focus on the Energy Cooperation Treaty which is being signed by the two countries. The Treaty outlines the supply of Algerian natural gas to Slovenia. They discussed how this will open doors for a long-term alliance with the Algerian gas suppliers. Golob also expressed his intentions to open an embassy in Algeria. Boughali expressed Algeria’s stand on considering Slovenia as an important partner and expressed cooperation between the two in the field of digitalisation, AI, renewable energy and new technologies. (“Prime Minister Robert Golob: Strategic partnerships with friendly countries such as Algeria are very important for Slovenia,” gov.si, 25 October 2022)

Turkey and Libya extend the 2019 maritime border agreement
On 25 October, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah signed two new defence deals extending the 2019 maritime agreement between the two nations. This was announced by the Libyan administration through a statement which did not include details on the two new deals. The deals are said to help increase the capacity of Libya’s air force and implement protocols for the security agreement. These deals are based on the 2019 agreement which received opposition from European nations like France and Greece and Egypt. The agreement allowed Turkey to access the gas-rich areas of the Eastern Mediterranean through Libyan waters. (“Libya, Turkey sign defense deals building on 2019 maritime border agreement,” The Times of Israel, 25 October 2022 )


War in Ukraine: Day 244
By Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 25 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier discussed peaceful and democratic cooperation to increase their bilateral cooperation, a municipal partnership was announced. They agreed upon the partnership between Germany and Ukraine at the municipal level.

On 25 October, Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, Secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, said in an interview with the UK Sky news channel that Russians were planning to attack the Kakhovka dam in Crimea to prevent the Ukrainian troops from advancing towards Kherson. If the dam is destroyed, Danilov fears that Crimea will have water problems and scarcity that will remain for 10 to 15 years. He stated the involvement of Belarus in the Special Military Operation by Russia in Ukraine. They have supported Russia, and Danilov speculated that Russians have a special attack base in Belarus.
 
On 25 October, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence warned in a Telegram post that Russia is planning to spread misinformation on heads of the nation and national liberation movements. The main goal of Russia was seen as to discredit western countries and their leaders in the campaign. They advised the public to be cautious of such misinformation and not to believe any discrediting information. The goal of the campaign was found to be disrupting the support received from the international community in Ukraine. On the same day the first Crimea Platform Parliamentary Summit was held at the National University Library in Zagreb. The Chairman of the Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, Speaker of the Sabor of the Republic of Croatia, Gordan Jandrokovic.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On October 26, TASS reported that Russia submitted a draft UNSC to set up a commission consisting of all UNSC members to investigate the activities of the US biological labs in Ukraine. The investigation is to find whether the US and Ukraine are overstepping their obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention. The draft document will be considered during the Security Council’s 27 October session.
 
On 25 October, TASS reported that the presidential spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said that the relations between the UK and Russia would not change even if the Prime Minister changed. The UK appointed Rishi Sunak as the new Prime Minister after the other Conservative candidates withdrew due to lack of support. Peskov said, “...we do not see any preconditions, grounds or hopes for some positive shifts in the foreseeable future,” commenting on the change in the UK leadership.
 
On 25 October, RT reported on Russian officials, including Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, accusation of Ukraine for preparing to use a dirty bomb. The dirty bomb is a device that combines traditional explosives with radioactive material. Russia has accused Ukraine of hiding these bombs before the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors visit. Ukraine denied the accusations and alleged that Russians were the ones who were planning to use nuclear weapons.

On 25 October, Russia responded to the new package of sanctions by increasing the stop list that does not allow those individuals entry into the country. The list was expanded to accommodate more EU representatives supplying military equipment to Ukraine. The sanction was to confiscate Russian assets instead of freezing them.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 25 October, at a reconstruction conference for Ukraine in Berlin, European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that there was “no time to waste,” and that the EU should be prepared to coordinate reconstruction measures. She mentioned the World Bank estimate of around EUR 350 billion of damages in Ukraine and said that the Commission should launch reconstructions efforts “..preferably before the end of the year or early at the beginning of next year.”

On 25 October, the Norwegian domestic security agency made known that it had arrested a “visiting academic”, who entered Norway as a Brazilian, under the lens of being a Russian spy. Amid enhanced panic over energy security, internet, and infrastructure, the Norwegian secret service alleged that the man was in the country working for a Russian intelligence service, under a fake name and identity. Confirming that the case was “huge”, the agency said that the academic would be barred from the country, as he represents a “threat to fundamental national interests.” While a court has placed the researched under a four-week detention order, the agency said that the man had neither Russian nor Norwegian citizenship, and had been researching the northern regions, hybrid threats, and Norway’s Arctic Policy. 

On 25 October, Romania announced to increase its defence procurement and boost talks with Turkey, Bulgaria, and Georgia, to the potential aftermath of Russia’s war in Ukraine towards the Black Sea. Critical for shipments of grain, oil, and oil products, the Black Sea is shared by Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. While these powers have been disseminating mines from Russia in the Sea, Romania has included in its proposals to strengthen its armed forces and ramp up its military procurement programs. Not providing details of the procurements, Romania said that these proposals were to “maintain peace in the Black Sea region” and to avoid the expansion of the conflict. 

On 25 October, Lithuania said that its supermarkets would deliver and phase out Russian and Belarusian goods, expressing their discontentment to “replace” certain commodities. Adding that no new products are being imported from Russia and Belarus, Lithuanian markets said that commodities like alcoholic beverages were easy to replace, but finding suppliers to counter that void was a tough task. Russian baking soda, for example, was difficult to procure, including countries like Italy and Poland pitching in to fill the racks. The market owners reassured that Lithuanians prefer domestic goods and western products and that the Russian-Belarusian products made up a “small percentage.” Moreover, a poll conducted by Lithuanian National Radio and Television (LRT) said that about 62 per cent of the people said that all European Union countries need to stop issuing visas for Russians and bar them from entering their territory. While Lithuania has reiterated its bid to close borders to Russians, it has added that Luxembourg should show “a strong backbone” to the issue and urged them to ban entry to Russians who hold a permissible visa regardless of the country.

On 25 October, Serbia pronounced it will not be taking part in the Crimea Platform, a Ukrainian-organised international summit organised to support the return of the occupied regions back to Ukraine’s control. Not commenting on their non-participation, Serbian officials are expected to not attend the meeting as per Russian sentiments, saying that they “expressed the expectation” that Serbia would not participate in the summit. Even though the summit is received well in Croatia, the Croatian President made known that Croatia would be exempt from the meeting. He said: “… as long as Croatia is not attacked and is not at war, I will not participate.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 25 October, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said that South Africa saw no reason to comply with Western sanction. Thus, South Africa will allow a Russian oligarch and Putin-ally Alexei Mordashov who had been placed under sanctions to dock his superyacht in Cape Town. Echoing Ramaphosa’s stance of not criticizing Russia directly, Magwenya said that the only sanctions South Africa is obligated to comply with are ones imposed by the UN.

References
Joint address of Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Frank-Walter Steinmeier,” president.gov.ua, 25 October 2022
Adam Parsons, “Ukraine war: Putin is a modern day Hitler and Russia is doomed to suffer the same fate as Nazi Germany, says Zelenskyy's most trusted security adviser,” news.sky, 25 October 2022
Crimea Platform Parliamentary Summit begins in Zagreb,” Ukrinform, 25 October 2022
Main Department of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, “In the near future, the special services of the Russian Federation are preparing a campaign to discredit the national movements of the peoples of Russia,” Telegram, 25 October 2022
Russia suggests UN Security Council commission to look into US biolabs in Ukraine,” TASS, 26 October 2022
As Sunak takes reins, Moscow sees ‘no hopes’ for better ties with UK, says Kremlin,” TASS, 25 October 2022
Exposure of Ukraine’s ‘dirty bomb’ plans caused stir in Kiev – Russia,” RT, 25 October 2022
Russia responded to the eighth package of EU sanctions and expanded the stop list,” LENTA.RU, 25 October 2022
World must not waste time but swiftly start work on Ukraine's reconstruction – EU,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
Jennifer Jacobs, “Biden Congratulates Sunak, Discusses Ukraine and China in Call,” Bloomberg, 26 October 2022
Norway arrests researcher as suspected Russian spy,” Deutsche Welle, 25 October 2022
Romania plans to boost Black Sea talks, military procurement,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
Sasa Dragojlo, “Serbia Shuns Ukraine’s Crimea Summit After Russian Diplomat’s Plea,” Balkan Insight, 25 October 2022
62% of Lithuanians in Favour of Completely Banning Russians From Entering EU,”  Schengen Visa, 25 October 2022
Lithuanian supermarkets gradually phase out Russian and Belarusian goods,” bnn-news.com,  25 October 2022
Ukraine war: South Africa refuses to seize sanctioned Russian superyacht,” BBC, 26 October 2022

 


25 October 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #340

UK: Three Challenges to Rishi Sunak, the new Prime Minister | War in Ukraine: Day 241, 242, and 243

Extension of Denmark's border control with Germany; Sweden and Finland accession process to be completed by mid-December; Latvia to have a three-party coalition

Photo : AP Photo/Kin Cheung


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan 

UK: Three Challenges to Rishi Sunak, the new Prime Minister
On 25 October, Rishi Sunak was appointed as UK’s Prime Minister formally after being asked to form the government by King Charles. In his first address he said: “I will place economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government's agenda. This will mean difficult decisions to come.” The UK will now have its third Prime Minister for the year after turbulent political and economic turns. In the case of the conservative party which pulled down Boris Johnson after the party scandal and Liz Truss after the cluttery economic budget, the upcoming months will be a testing ground for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to hold the party, and prevent economy from worsening. This will also be a decider for the conservative party to save its reputation for the 2025 elections.

What are the campaign promises?
Tax cuts
Sunak during his campaign has always stood against immediate tax cuts, since he saw it as a trigger to inflation and hike in government borrowing costs. Cutting down inflation and lowering incomes tax remains the top priority of Sunak’s tax agenda. Apart from this increasing of corporate tax and national insurance which were scheduled to be scrapped off in Truss’s mini-budget U-turn are yet to be confirmed.

Energy
The members of the Conservative party are known for bouncing off climate goals, this can be seen from the vote taken on fracking which was backed by Sunak for extracting shale gas. With the energy subsidy package of GBP 10 billion proposed by Truss not giving a positive effect, and energy crisis being at the rim, a major question remains if Sunak will replace or reverse. His promises to remove “VAT on domestic energy bills,” and UK’s promise to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will remain in the climate change cards of Sunak.

Brexit
Since the 2016 referendum, the trade tussle has been real between the EU, the UK and the Northern Ireland. UK’s new proposal submitted during Boris Johnson administration to alter significant provisions to the agreed Northern Ireland Protocol threatens the existing political stability of the Northern Ireland, and trade relations with the EU. Sunak also falls in the same line being a staunch supporter of Brexit, maintains a stance favourable to the UK, while aims to avoid a trade with the EU. Overall, the debate over the Northern Ireland Protocol is expected to narrow further.

What are the challenges ahead?
First, a quick save for the Tories. The conservatives may have closed the gap to calling an early general election but the major question remains if the unity will be struck under Sunak’s leadership. With differences over economic, healthcare, energy, and immigration policies, if the party members split over the existing cracks UK will go through its worst economic instability induced from the internal political imbalance.

Second, UK’s equation with the EU is expected to fade further. With the previous Prime Ministers economic strategies to boost UK’s economy resulting in heightening of inflation and pound value, Sunak is tasked to bring back the economy from the spin. With Sunak’s strong stance on Brexit, the relations with the EU are set to go down and divert into other countries. Earlier Sunak was criticised by Truss for engaging in closer trade with China, therefore possible alternatives could be increased trade with China and the US to boost reset UK’s economy from downfall.
  
Third, decline in defence aid Ukraine. UK’s stance for Ukraine is not observed to change but with economic crisis at center the defence spending can expected to take a setback. Initially Truss had promised for an increase in defence budget by two to three per cent which was subject to change as per the GDP, with domestic agenda on priority for Rishi Sunak, Ukraine cannot expect more defence aid in the coming days from the UK.

References
Rishi Sunak: World leaders welcome next UK prime minister,” BBC, 25 October 2022
Rishi Sunak's first speech as UK prime minister,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
Rishi Sunak: What might the new Tory leader do as PM?,” BBC, 24 October 2022
Mark Landler, “Rishi Sunak Will Become the U.K.’s Next Prime Minister on Tuesday,” The New York Times, 24 October 2022


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee

DENMARK
Border control with Germany extended in Denmark
On 24 October, Denmark extended the border control at their border with Germany. Denmark’s Justice Minister Mattias Tesfaye confirmed the extension through a note to the parliamentary Justice Committee. All border controls should be temporary, including the one introduced in 2016 in Demark. However, it was extended for eight years, the latest starting from 12 November. The security and migration situations in Denmark were said to be the reason for the extension of border control by the government. The border petrol creates long queues for crossing Denmark to Germany by road. The left-leaning parties, the Red-Green Alliance, Socialist People’s Party and Social Liberals, opposed the extension of border control. They responded that it would be a waste of resources and men that could be used elsewhere. (“Denmark confirms latest extension of checks at German border,” THE LOCAL dk, 24 October 2022)

ESTONIA
Estonia’s proposed representative to the European Court of Auditors under scrutiny
On 24 October, former chairman of the EKRE party in Estonia, Mart Helme said that he will submit a complaint to the EU, against the government's plan to designate former Finance Minister Keit Pentus-Rosimannus as the representative for the European Court of Auditors. Helme alleges that Pentus-Rosimannus broke the application process. Helme, who heads the Special Anti-corruption Committee filed a draft of the complaint with the committee and said that he will send the letter in a personal capacity if the committee did not agree to his stance. On the same issue, former Defence Minister and committee member, Kalle Laanet said that no decision should be taken before the prosecutor's office released its decision by the end of this week. (Anne Raiste, “EKRE planning EU complaint over Estonia's ECA application process,” ERR News, 24 October 2022)

FINLAND
The EU’s nature restoration proposal faces differences in opinion in Finland’s government
On 23 October, Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that Finland would vote against the EU’s nature restoration regulation. She welcomes the restoration regulations but said, “...it has to be done in places where it’s functional and sensible.” The proposal was to restore 20 per cent of land and sea across the EU member states to their natural form by 2030. The coalition was divided over the discussion to reject the nature restoration regulation. The government will decide whats good for Finland and evaluate the best option. The National Coalition said that the vote for not supporting the proposal would reflect poorly on Finland’s forest policy and national intetersts. (Aleksi Teivainen, “Marin: Finland could vote against EU’s restoration regulation,” Helsinki Times, 24 October 2022)

Reception system to increase its capacity to accommodate Ukrainian refugees
On 24 October, Finland’s Immigration Service decided to set up new reception centres due to the increase in Ukrainian refugees. New reception centres are built to provide accommodation to refugees fleeing from Ukraine to Finland.  Finland has 86 existing ones with secondary branches and service points and eight reception units for minors. Approximately 50 per cent live in private accommodation, and 10 per cent in municipalities provided accommodation for temporary protection. The number of applicants for the reception centres has been increasing as the war in Ukraine prolongs. The Finnish Immigration Service looks after directing, planning and supervising the workings of the reception system. (“Finnish Immigration Service to establish new reception centres on 24 October,” Helsinki Times, 24 October 2022)

HUNGARY
Hungary unblocks Sweden and Finland’s accession process
On 22 October, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas, announced during the government’s regular press brief that Hungary would stop delaying Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Turkey and Hungary are the only countries that have been blocking the Nordic countries’ accession process. He said the accession process would be completed by mid-December. The NATO accession process will be discussed in the autumn session of the Hungarian parliament. Even after the Socialist suggested scheduling a vote in the Parliament about Finland and Sweden, Orban rejected it due to being forced by the opposition party on the crucial matter. He also added that Hungary is trying to reach NATO’s pre-requisite level of two per cent of GDP spent on the annual defence. (Daniel Deme, “Hungary to Ratify NATO’s Northern Expansion,” Hungary today, 24 October 2022)
 
ICELAND
Women get time off after 1515 hours following the Women’s Day Off demonstration
On 24 October, the women in Iceland are allowed to be relieved from work at 1515 hours. The decision was made following the Women’s Day Off demonstration, which started on 24 October 1975. 90 per cent of women workers walked out of their workplaces in 1975, and the rally continued six times, the latest being in 2018. Alongside encouraging women to leave the workplace early, the government is also trying to close the wage gap between genders by 2045. Arborg municipality in Southern Iceland achieved equal pay between 1000 male and female employees. The government is trying to give women more rights and freedom. (Margret Adamsdottir, “Women encouraged to walk out from work at 15:15,” ruv.is, 24 October 2022; Erik Pomrenke, “No Gender Pay Gap in Árborg,” Iceland Review, 24 October 2022)

LATVIA
Three-party coalition to form the government in Latvia
On 24 October, Latvia's President Egils Levits indicated that a three-party coalition would form the government after the recent Saeima elections. The elections were held on 01 October, and now, three parties, New Unity, National Alliance, and United List will be forming the government. The Progressive Party, which was to be the last party in Latvia's four-party government model, will now have to come to an agreement with New Unity to proceed with collaboration talks. Even though the President did not clarify the exact date, he said that the parties will sign a memorandum of cooperation and soon decide on the division of duties. (“New Latvian coalition to consist of three parties,” Eng.LSM.lv24 October 2022)

NORWAY
The Socialist Left Party becomes a budget partner to the government
On 24 October, Norway’s government found itself without majority support to pass the budget through the parliament (Storting). The ruling Labour (AP) and Centre (SP) parties are looking at the Socialist Left Party (SV) as their budget partner. The three parties agreed on providing NOK 1.2 billion as an electricity support scheme for businesses and the most vulnerable in society. The agreement also included support in housing benefits for NOK 194 million, food banks for NOK two million and students for NOK 210 million. Additional housing benefits and electricity support will be provided to citizens till April 2023. The supportive budget is presented due to the rising energy costs and high cost of living. (Robin-Ivan Capar, “Norwegian government secures parliamentary majority for new crisis support measures,” THE LOCAL no, 24 October 2022

SLOVENIA
Presidential election results in an inconclusive result
On 23 October, the presidential election was held in Slovenia, resulting in no clear winner. In a pre-election poll, the right-wing candidate Anze Logar was leading with 30 per cent, followed by the centrist independent Natasa Pirc Musar with 20 per cent and Social Democrat Milan Brglez with 17 per cent. The victory of former Foreign Minister Logar will upset the current government, as they had tried hard to remove Janez Jansa in April 2022. Logar plans to get out of the populist image and wants to become a unifier. The inconclusive results will result in a runoff vote that will be held in three weeks, having the top two candidates. The runoff voting will thin Logar’s chance as Musar will have the advantage of having a merged constituency of hers and Brglez. The outgoing President Borut Pahor will be unable to return to the race as he has completed his two terms in Office. (“No clear winner predicted as Slovenians elect new president,” euronews, 23 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Defence Minister of Georgia and Lithuania discuss on strategic cooperation
On 24 October, Georgia’s Defence minister Juansher Burchuladze and Lithuania’s Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas met to discuss the challenges to security in the Black Sea region. Burchuladze appreciated Lithuania’s constant support to Georgia. With the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Georgia informed Anušauskas about the reforms initiated to comply more with NATO and EU standards. On a bilateral level, improving education, cybersecurity, and installing better strategic communication were discussed. Additionally, in terms of increasing military cooperation, mandatory military service, rehabilitation of wounded soldiers, exchanges between national defence academies, and joint exercises were also discussed as potential areas of cooperation. Following the meeting, the minister released a joint communique. (“Georgian, Lithuanian defence chiefs review cooperation, security challenges in Black Sea region,” Agenda.ge, 24 October 2022)

Albania and Israel’s Prime Ministers meet to discuss Iranian threat
On 23rd October, Arab News reported that Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama arrived in Israel for an official visit. He met Israel's caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and the two discussed bilateral ties and the ways to overcome challenges faced by both the countries. Special focus was given to the threat both the country faces from Iran. Rama is also scheduled to meet the head of Israel's National Cyber Directorate, which is the state's apex cybersecurity authority. Albania's increased attention to cyber security issues comes after two cyber attacks on government websites and systems, which have been traced to an Iranian source. (“In Israel, Albanian PM to meet cyber chief after Iran hack,” Arab News, 23 October 2022)

Hungary and Turkey discuss strengthening their relations
On 24 October, Hungary’s Defence Minister, Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky, met with Turkey’s Defence Minister, Hulusi Akar, in Ankara to discuss the continued partnership between the countries regarding trade, culture and defence. They want to promote peace in Ukraine, and Szalay-Bobrovniczky appreciated Turkey’s efforts in mediating the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey was noted to have provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Hungary in assisting people fleeing the war. The two countries agreed to cooperate in arms deals. Hungary is aiming to replace its old military equipment with new NATO-compatible technology with the help of Turkey. Turkey had supplied military weapons and is manufacturing ten Gidran combat vehicles for Hungary. (“Defence Minister: Turkey 'important strategic partner',” The Budapest Times, 24 October 2022)
 
Azerbaijan's President visits Georgia
On 24 October, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev completed his visit to Georgia following his discussion with Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili on strengthening their relations and strategic partnership. The two exchanged dialogue on politics, cooperation in trade and economy. At a press conference in Mtskheta, Garibashvili and Aliyev talked about facilitating friendly cooperation between South Caucasus countries. Aliyev was shown around Georgia by the Prime Minister, introducing its culture, history and art. Garibashvili was present till the farewell of Aliyev in Tiblisi, from which he departed. (“Azerbaijani president ends visit to Georgia after discussing “special relations”,” agenda.ge, 24 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 241, 242, and 243
By Madhura S Mahesh and Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 24 October, Ukraine’s Air Force Command reported that they had shot down three Russian Ka-52 helicopters in Beryslav, Kherson. From around 13:00 to 13:30, they shot down two of the helicopters and the third was shot down around 21:30. This cotter offensive was carried out by the Odesa and Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades of the "South" Air Command of the Air Force. The Air force Command also informed that these helicopters might be fitted with Ukrainian engines after Moto Sich JSC President was arrested on account of abetting Russia. 
 
On the same day, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that they had freed over 90 settlements from Russian control in Kherson. This comes as Russia announced evacuations in the region specifically around the left bank of the Dnipro River. The spokesperson of Ukraine’s Army General Staff Vladislav Seleznov said that theta re suspecting that Russian Forces are preparing for a large-scale conflict in the region, especially near the Kakhovka dam. This comes amid the reports of Russia allegedly resorting to blackmailing Ukraine by mining the Kakhovka HPP and threatening to detonate it.   
 
On 24 October, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov announced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be acquiring 11 PUMA-LE unmanned aircraft systems. This purchase worth UAH 540 million is a part of the Army of Drones project by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. The PUMA-LE drones are a part of 18 countries’ armed forces and are equipped with thermal imaging systems, and antennas with an operational range of 60 kilometres, 6.5 hours of flight capability and can fly as low as 3 km from the ground. 
 
On 24 October, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry released a statement asking the International Community to ask Russia to cease artificial and politically motivated delays in the Black Sea grain corridor. According to the Ministry, Russian officials are conducting a prolonged inspection of vessels either arriving or leaving Ukraine which is causing a slowdown of grain shipment to the Global South. The statement highlights that more than 165 vessels are stuck in the Bosporus Strait. It also added that the export of around three million tonnes of grain has been delayed and that more than 10 million people all over the globe are not receiving food on time due to Russia’s delay. The Ministry suspects that these delays are politically motivated to renew the deal to benefit Russia more and that these actions are undermining global food security, especially that of the Global South.  
 
On 24 October, in an interview with “We - Ukraine” Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko reported that the majority of Ukraine’s wind and solar energy have been decommissioned. This is because 90 per cent of wind and around 50 per cent of solar energy plants are located South of the country which has suffered from repeated Russian aggression. This renewable energy contributed to about 10-11 per cent of Ukraine’s total energy consumption. Galushchenko also said that Ukraine’s goal of increasing this share to 25 per cent will be revised once the total damage by Russia is counted.    
 
On 23 October, the Head of Kyiv Regional Military Administration Oleksiy Kuleba reported that 147 locals were illegally deported from the region when Russia occupied it. Kuleba notes that they would have been deported to either Belarus or Russia. Out of the total 147 people, 43 are said to be in captivity and the rest 89 status is unknown. 
 
On 23 October, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine has enough gas to get through winter. He reported that their gas storage has about 14.2 billion cubic meters of gas which will help the country survive winter sustainably. This comes amid repeated Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Shmyhal said that Russia has not been able to break the energy system and that workers are working 24/7 to ensure the damage is repaired at the earliest. 
 
On 23 October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba responded to Russia’s claims that Ukraine is planning to use “dirty bombs”. Kuleba dismissed these claims in a tweet and added that such claims are dangerous. He stated that Ukraine is a signatory of the NPT and that they do not possess any ‘dirty bombs’ nor are they acquiring any. Kuleba said that such accusations often reflect the future plans of Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also dismissed these claims and reiterated that this is a reflection of Russia’s plans and a sign that Moscow is ready to raise the stakes of the war. Zelenskyy called for a tougher international response against a nuclear threat by Russia.
 
On 22 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia launched 36 rockets at Ukraine at night. This attack targeted key energy infrastructure leaving the regions without power. Zelenskyy reported that the majority of the rockets were shot down and that emergency services were dispatched to the affected regions to get the power back on and restore the energy supply.   

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 24 October, Russia’s Defence Ministry alleged that Ukraine is planning to deploy a “dirty bomb” which along with conventional explosives is used to spread radioactive material and frame Russia in the process. According to the Ministry, this move would serve three purposes- first, portray Moscow as a “nuclear terrorist;” second, initiate a refugee exodus to the EU; and third intimidate the residents. On the same issue, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia wrote a letter to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, saying that the UN should attempt to “prevent this heinous crime.” Nebenzia mentioned that if Ukraine uses the bomb, it will be viewed as an “act of nuclear terrorism.” He has also called for a Security Council meeting on the issue. However, on the same day, the Foreign Ministers of France, the UK and the US released a joint statement saying that they do not accept Russia’s transparently false allegations and the NATO Chief, Jens Stoltenberg dismissed the narrative as “absurd.”

On the same day, the chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov said that Ukraine had been making continuous efforts to usurp control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). He alleged that since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has shelled the plant 39 times and that now, the troops were trying to get across the Kakhovka reservoir to take over the plant. On the same issue, the Defence Ministry revealed the countries that would be worst affected in case of an accident at ZNPP.   Publishing a pollution map for such an eventuality, it said that 38.4 thousand square kilometers of area in Belarus, Poland, Romania, Germany and Slovakia will be the worst hit.

On 24 October, the Coordination Council, tasked with outlining the federal and regional efforts for the war in Ukraine held its first meeting. The Council is being headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and the Chief of the Government Staff, Dmitry Grigorenko, and Industry and Trade Minister, Denis Manturov will serve as deputies. While Grigorenko will look into regulatory and financial issues, Manturov will coordinate the delivery of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. The Council will also look into the security of critical infrastructure like energy supply, transport, telecoms and communication facilities. Mishustin said that the Council plans to report the activities and developments to the President once a week. On 25 October, President Vladimir Putin will convene a special Coordination Council meeting to discuss the needs of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

On 23 October, Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that a Russian Su-30 two-seat multirole fighter jet crashed into a two-story house in Irkutsk. The ministry confirmed that the crash came during a test flight and the two pilots commandeering the aircraft died in the clash. However, no civilian casualty was reported. Russia’s Investigative Committee has initiated a criminal case on the issue, as this is the second time an aircraft has crashed into residential buildings in recent times. On 17 October, a Su-34 aircraft crashed in Yeysk, killing 14 people and injuring 42. According to the Department of Defence, an engine fire caused that crash during take-off, while the aircraft was on a training flight.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 24 October, the UK’s Ministry of Defence released an update on the situation in Ukraine with regard to the repeated drone attacks being carried out by Russia. The update stated that Russia was continuing to use Iranian-made Shahed-137 drones. The drones reportedly are slow, fly at low altitudes and are noisy which makes them easy to take down the report added that Ukraine has been successful in taking 85 per cent of the drones launched by Russia. The Ministry suspects that Russia is using these drones to penetrate Ukraine’s air defence which is getting better by the day. They also suspect that it is being used instead of Russia’s indigenous long-range precision weapon which is becoming scarce. 
 
On 24 October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pressed the need for the development of a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Marshall Plan was a post-World War II initiative by the US to increase investments in West Germany. The two leaders called the reconstruction of Ukraine a “generational task” which should start as soon as possible. This call comes before the start of the German-Ukraine business forum in Berlin where discussions are said to take place regarding rebuilding Ukraine. 
 
On the same day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal opened the German-Ukraine business forum. Speaking at the forum, Scholz backed the membership bid of Ukraine to the EU and added that this would open doors for more investors and the use of already-in-place EU infrastructure to rebuild Ukraine faster. He also emphasised the importance of transparency, rule of law and a tougher fight against corruption on the Ukraine side. Scholz also promised continued military aid and air defence equipment for helping Ukraine counter Russia. Scholz also highlighted that the rebuilding efforts should surpass the agenda of repairing energy infrastructure to make sure that they are efficient and that they are adaptable for a climate transition.      
 
On 24 October, Western and NATO countries denounced Russia’s claim that Ukraine is alledgldy planning to use ‘dirty bombs’. This was announced through a joint statement by France, the UK and the US where their Foreign Ministers reject the claims and that they will continue their support to Ukriane. These claims were made by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 23 OCtober when he contacted his Western counterparts. The ‘dirty bomb’ is reportdly a bomb that has been laced with nuclear material. The statement said that these calims were just a reason that Russia will use to justify an escalation in the conflict. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also rejected the allegations and added that Russia itself should not use such bombs as a pretext for escallations. The US State Department also added that irrespective of the use of a nuclear weapon or a ‘dirty bomb’ by Russia will have consequences.  
 
On 24 October, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said that they will give up to EUR 3 billion over 2022-2023 to support Ukraine’s businesses and economy to sustain. Mentioning the bank’s resilience to help Ukraine in its defence, they added that the primary focus would be to help the “real economy”, which includes maintaining energy and food security, reconstruction of infrastructure, and to revitalise energy security. With an investment of up to EUR 500 million in liquidity support, the EBRD is the largest institutional investor in Ukraine and adds its focus to triple its aid to Ukraine by the end of 2023.
 
On 24 October, Norwegian police placed two Russians into custody on the account of taking photos of restricted military installations. This incident occurred in Bjerkvik in northern Norway which houses Norway’s Armed Forces military facility and barracks. The pair, a man and woman were arrested on Saturday when a car with a Russian number plate was allegedly spotted taking pictures near the base. This adds to the rising cases of Russians being arrested for taking photos or flying drones illegally. 
 
On 24 October, Euractiv reported on a major crisis that holds Poland back from transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Poland’s continuous reliance on coal and the global system’s current economic recession could throw the country’s energy transition off course and would lead to a nearly EUR 135 billion costly endeavour by 2030. Amid the EU’s push for ambitious climate action for 2030, Poland’s energy sector is dominated by fossil fuels, which tripled in expense and dependency since the invasion of Ukraine. Soaring coal and gas prices would mean an increasing reliance on coal, which leads to an array of issues for Poland. Renewable energy being Poland’s partial solution to its energy transition, the country is also setting up nuclear alternatives, with its first plant not scheduled until the mid-2030s. With a share of 23 per cent of renewables set to reach gross final energy consumption by 2030, Poland needs to ramp up its power generation amid increased demand.
 
On 24 October, the new right-wing government led by Giorgia Meloni reaffirmed its support for Ukraine. This move comes amid concerns that Italy will support Russia as two of the coalition partners Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini are known Russian sympathisers. Italy’s new Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani in a tweet on 22 October said that in his call with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba he reiterated Italy’s support for Ukraine’s defence against the Russian invasion.  
 
On 24 October, The Hill reported that US Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be meeting Ukrainian officials during a summit in Croatia later this week.  Pelosi will be a part of bilateral meetings with top-level officials from Ukraine and Croatia at the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform. Pelosi will be speaking at the summit regarding “America’s unbreakable commitment to Ukraine.” Reaffirming that the US would stand with Ukraine in their fight for “freedom”, Pelosi said that the US would “hold Russia accountable”. 
 
On 23 October, over 7,000 protestors gathered in the capital of Moldova for their sixth consecutive day of protests against the high gas prices, especially of those supplied by Russia. These protests are backed by the opposition parties of Moldova led by Ilan Shor and are calling for the resignation of President Maia Sandu. This comes at a time when Moldova is facing difficulties in procuring gas from Russia through Gazprom. Previously the Moldovan government reported uncertainty regarding the volume of gas that will be supplied by Gazprom as the gas giant reduced supplies by 30 per cent and pressed Moldova to pay its outstanding debt of USD 709 million.
 
On 22 October, Spain announced that 14 fighter jets will be sent to Bulgaria and Romania to increase NATO’s eastern line of defence. With six Eurofighter jets and 130 soldiers to Bulgaria, Spain means to send these jets by mid-November and early December to train local forces. Spain will be deploying eight F18M fighter jets and 130 air force personnel to Romania between December and March 2023. These are a part of NATO’s reaction and deterrence strategy and will help Spain to form an “aerial shield” by increasing its air force missions in the area.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 24 October, the World Bank announced that an additional USD 500 million would be sent to Ukraine to meet its urgent spending needs. The World Bank’s main lending arm, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development authorized the loan. World Bank Group President David Malpass released a statement on the issue and said: “The Russian invasion continues to cause massive destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure – including water, sanitation, and electricity networks… The new portion of financing disbursed today will be used to maintain essential government services.” With this additional package, the total emergency financing sent to Ukraine is USD 13 billion, of which USD 11.4 billion has been fully disbursed.

On the same day, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General, Rafael Grossi confirmed that to respond to Russia’s claims of Ukraine making “dirty bombs”, security inspectors of IAEA would visit two locations in Ukraine. Russia had specified two institutes in Ukraine, which were allegedly making the bombs and Grossi assured that these sites were under IAEA’s constant supervision and inspections. In an official statement, Grossi said, “The purpose of the safeguards visits is to detect any possible undeclared nuclear activities and material. 

On 24 October, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke about the claims of Iran supplying drones to Russia and said that if proved, Iran would “not remain indifferent.” He said that Iran is “strongly opposed to the war” and denied the veracity of the claims. The statement comes after the EU, the UK and the US introduced sanctions against three military commanders and a defence company of Iran, in connection to the reported supply.

On 21 October, UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, Denise Brown briefed the UNSC on the current situation in Ukraine. They warned against the use of nonconventional weapons like nuclear weapons in the battlefield and highlighted the risks of the military activity around the ZNPP. Di Carlo also criticized Russia’s recent strategy of targeting civilian infrastructure like the targeting of power stations and water lines.  She also urged the UN to ramp up their efforts to extend the Black Sea Grain Deal beyond November to ensure that the world’s access to Russian and Ukrainian food grains. Brown spoke about the severe humanitarian impact of Russia’s continuing offensive and mentioned that other than the displacement of people, Ukrainians are also having to deal with extremely traumatic and psychologically devastating conditions.

References
Third Russian helicopter downed in Ukraine in one day,” ukrinform, 24 October 2022“AFU will get 11 PUMA-LE "unmanned aircraft systems,” ukrinform, 24 October 2022  
Russians illegally deported 147 locals during occupation of Kyiv region,” ukrinform, 23 October 2022   
PM Shmyhal: Ukrainian underground storages have enough gas for heating season,”  ukrinform, 23 October 2022   
Kuleba on 'dirty bomb' claims: Russia often accuses others of what it plans itself,” ukrinform, 23 October 2022   
Russia brings death and degradation, Ukraine is always about restoration - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 23 October 2022
Ukraine calls on world to demand Russia stop artificial delays in inspections of grain ships,” ukrinform, 24 October 2022  
Ukraine has lost 90% of its wind energy,” The Odessa Journal, 24 October 2022
Russia’s Kherson “Evacuation”: Drawing Down and Readying for Last-Ditch Battle,” Kyiv Post, 24 October 2022
The aggressor continues to terrorize our country. At night, the enemy launched a massive attack,” Telegram, 22 October 2022
Russia calls up UNSC over ‘Ukraine’s dirty bomb’,” RT, 25 October 2022
Russia Claims Ukraine in 'Final Stage' of Creating 'Dirty Bomb,” The Moscow Times, 25 October 2022
Putin to convene special council meeting to discuss Army’s needs during special operation,” TASS, 25 October 2022
Russian Defense Ministry says attempts made to seize Zaporozhye NPP by Ukrainian forces,” TASS, 24 October 2022
A map of pollution of Europe in the event of an accident at the ZNPP has been published,” LENTA.RU, 24 October 2022
Russian Su-30 fighter jet fell on a residential building in Irkutsk,” LENTA.RU, 23 October 2022
Ukraine updates: West rejects 'dirty bomb' claims,” Deutsche Welle, 24 October 2022 
Convicted criminal sponsors new Moldova anti-government protest,” EURACTIV, 24 October 2022
Norway detains 2 Russians for taking photos of army base,” AP News, 24 October 2022 
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 24 October 2022,” Twitter, 24 October 
German and EU leaders call for Ukraine 'Marshall Plan',” Deutsche Welle, 24 October 2022 
Spain to Bolster NATO’s Eastern Flank With 14 Jets,” The Defense Post, 24 October 2022 
BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says rebuilding Ukraine will be a “task for a generation” that no country, donor or international institution can manage alone,” THE WEEK, 24 October 2022  
Energy crisis sets Poland on rocky transition out of fossil fuels,” EURACTIV, 24 October 2022
EBRD commits up to €3 billion to Ukraine,” ebrd.com, 24 October 2022 
Pelosi to meet Ukrainian officials in Croatia,” THE HILL, 24 October 2022 
Italy’s New Right-Wing Government Seeks to Affirm Support for Ukraine,” The New York Times, 24 October 2022
World Bank disburses additional $500 mln to Ukraine,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
Romanian defense minister resigns, pressured after Ukraine comment,” Reuters, 24 October 2022
Safeguards Inspectors to Visit Two Nuclear Locations in Ukraine, IAEA’s Grossi Says After Receiving Request from Ukraine,” iaea.org, 24 October 2022
IAEA preparing to inspect two sites in Ukraine over 'dirty bomb' claims,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
Foreign Minister: ‘Iran Not Indifferent’ If Drones Used In Ukraine,” Iran International, 25 October 2022
Ukraine war: Path of further escalation ‘must be reversed’, Security Council hears,” news.un.org, 21 October 2022

 

 


22 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #339

War in Ukraine: Day 240 | Ukraine captures back 88 settlements in Kherson

Municipalities asked to draw own climate action plans in Finland; Slovenia to get natural gas from Algeria; Greece cooperates with Austria and Germany for renewable energy cable

Photo : ISW/Critical Threats


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee

DENMARK
Private sectors hope for a new policy to counter labour shortages
On 21 October, THE LOCAL dk reported on the decrease in the number of employees in Denmark’s private sector. The private industry waits for the November elections to propose for upskilling more employees to the new government. So far, labour shortages can be seen across private, public, health and social care sectors, lack of skilled employees has resulted in the reduction of private industries revenue. (“Danish companies demand political pledge for 50,000 new staff,” THE LOCAL dk, 21 October 2022)
 
FINLAND
The amendment to Climate Act focuses on implementing joint climate plan in municipalities
On 20 October, Finland’s government approved the proposal for revising the Climate Act. Mission targets are set for 2030, 2040 and 2050 by the Climate Act, where it aims to make Finland carbon-neutral by 2035. The new amendment focuses on municipalities across Finland drawing up their own climate plans or collaborating with other municipalities to draw a joint climate plan through an annual budget of EUR 2.6 million. The climate targets provided by municipalities are much more efficient than the national ones making it easier for the country to become carbon-neutral. The municipality plans will quickly boost Finland's climate work to achieve the targets and also targets reducing greenhouse gas emissions in municipalities and measures to control the emissions. (“Government proposal: Municipalities obliged to draw up climate plans in future,” Helsinki Times, 21 October 2022)
 
ICELAND
Minister of Justice proposal to revise the Foreign National Act rejected
On 21 October, Iceland’s Justice Minister Jon Gunnarsson proposed a bill in the parliament to amend the Foreign National Act, which looks at authorization to enter, stay and their right to international protection. Gunnarsson's revision in the act is that a foreign national whose application of international protection was denied should be stripped of their rights such as healthcare, education and housing after 30 days of rejection. The asylum seekers will then be deported. The bill was equally rejected by opposition parties and the Prime Minister. They deem the amendment unnecessary and blamed the war in Ukraine for the increase in the number of refugees. (Ragnar Tomas, “Bill to Amend Foreign Nationals Act Distributed Among MP’s,” Iceland review, 21 October 2022
 
POLAND
Ministry of National Defence leases US based drones ahead of purchase 
On 21 October, the Polish Ministry of National Defence leased a US made MQ-9A as it gets ready to buy MQ-9B drones. This is one of Poland's latest moves to arm itself after the invasion of Ukraine. The contract for MQ-9B drones will include a training facility until the Polish Armed Forces and if it goes the, Poland will become the first NATO ally in the Eastern Flank to have a medium-altitude-long-endurance drone. (“Poland leases MQ-9A Reapers ahead of drone buy,” DefenseNews, 21 October 2022)

SLOVENIA
Geoplin gears up to get natural gas from Algeria
On 21 October, Slovenia's Infrastructure Minister announced that Geoplin (Natural gas company) will be signing a contract with Algeria's Sonatrach to buy natural gas. Though the terms of the deal is yet to be revealed, Geoplin is expected to buy 300 million cubic metres of natural gas, thus accounting for third of the country's requirements. Prime Minister Robert Golob indicated that the contract would be for a minimum of three-years. The gas would be imported through Italy via an existing pipeline that has sufficient capacity. (Sebastijan R. Maček, “Slovenia on cusp of signing gas supply deal with Algeria,” EURACTIV, 21 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Greece to collaborate with Austria and Germany for renewable energy cable
On 22 October, Ekathimerini reported that Greece’s Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas suggestion to build an electricity cable that would produce electricity from renewable sources connecting Austria and Germany to Greece. At a renewable energy conference in Athens, Skrekas said that a proposal for the same has been submitted to Austria’s Energy Minister. The project aligns with Greece’s efforts to expand its renewable energy capabilities to 70 per cent by 2030. Running through Albania and other Balkan countries, initially the cable would have a capacity of three gigawatts which could be increased to nine gigawatts. Discussions with Austria and Germany are being conducted for the funding of the project. (“Greece proposes power link to Austria and Germany,” ekathimerini.com, 22 October 2022)

Cross-border control to be made permanent, Ulf Kristersson
On 21 October, in an interview with the Sydsvenskan (Sweden newspaper) Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that the border control between Denmark and Sweden along the Oresund Bridge would remain permanent. Border control is placed to reduce cross-border crimes and migration problems. However, the border control measures go against EU law. The EU permits cross-border control for only six months, not as a permanent solution. The opposition says there should be more cooperation between the Nordic countries rather than cause division. The first border control was placed in 2015 by Sweden’s Social Democrats. (“Swedish PM calls for ‘permanent border control’ with Denmark,” THE LOCAL DK, 21 October 2022)

Scandinavian and Baltic states advised to be mindful of electricity usage
On 21 October, Eng.LSM.lv reported on the electricity storage of the Scandinavian and Baltic States. The transmission system operators of the countries released a report analysing the amount of electricity that can be supplied to the region. As per the report, the upcoming winter is likely to one of the most challenging ones in recent years. Even though the reserves are full, they are limited in capacity, which exacerbates the crisis. The analysis also does not does not instruct any citizen or organization to cut down on their consumption. However, transmission operator, “High Voltage Network” provided a statement to Nasdaq Riga on the same issue and said that given the size of the storage capacities, the countries should consider implementing supply constraints and be mindful of the amount of electricity being used by the consumers. (“Baltic, Scandinavian authorities warn of low electricity capacity reserve,” Eng.LSM.lv, 21 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 240
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 21 October, Ukraine’s Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko updated the press on their efforts to liberate Kherson and Kharkiv. According to him 88 settlements in Kherson and 551 settlements in Kharkiv have been liberated. Tymoshenko also outlined the actions being taken to restore normalcy in these settlements. Along with humanitarian aid, power lines and mobile services are being restored, and roadways are being cleared. He also highlighted the number of war crimes that have been reported in Kherson to be 156 and 1685 in Kherson.
 
On 21 October, Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry (GUR) reported that mines have been placed at the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant by Russia. According to the report, the agency suspects that this has been going on since April and mining efforts have ramped up recently as Ukrainian Forces are making headway in Dnipro in Kherson. The GUR stated: “During this week, the locks and pillars of the Kakhovska HPP were additionally mined. Two tented KamAZ trucks have been parked on the dam, with no drivers in them. Both cars are fully loaded with boxes of explosives." The agency also said that if these mines were to be set off then the resulting disaster would not just affect Europe but also spill over to the entire Black Sea region. 
 
On the same day, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and members of the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress Mike Turner, James Himes and Eric Swalwell had a meeting. The two discussed matters related to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, increasing aid and the importance of air defence systems to protect Ukraine from Russian drones. They also discussed Ukraine’s assimilation into the larger Euro-Atlantic network and the inadmissibility of nuclear threat by Russia. Both parties also looked into furthering the sanctions placed on Russia in light of its recent attacks on key civilian infrastructure. 
 
On 20 October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid held talks regarding Israeli air and defence systems and technology. Kuleba in a tweet detailed his call with Lapid, where he mentioned that the latter was briefed about the destruction and devastation caused by Russian attacks using Iranian technology. He also talked to the Prime Minister in detail about Ukraine’s request for Israeli air and defence systems and asked for Israel’s support in training the Ukrainian Armed Forces to operate the technology.  

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 21 October, the temporary head of DPR Denis Pushilin told Tass that the martial law imposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin would not change the already in-place curfew rules. Martial law was introduced to increase security in the newly annexed regions. According to Pushilin, no amendments will be made to the rules as they currently do not restrict the movement of citizens outside the republic. Back in January 2022, a curfew was placed in DPR which was removed only during the weekends to allow citizens to move freely. 
 
On the same day, DPR’s human rights commissioner Daria Morozova announced that they had sent an appeal to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as well as the UN Human Rights Committee (UNHRC). This appeal comes after the interview of newly released Prisoners of War (POWs) from Ukraine reported that they were tortured. These POWs were a part of the exchange on 17 October when 110 Russians were released. Morozova also said that the Russian Investigative Committee and the Russian Military Prosecutor’s Office were also notified.   
 
On 21 October, the head of the LPR mission in Moscow Rodion Miroshnik expressed that any international intervention in the Kakhovka HPP will be biased and politicised. This comes after Ukraine asked the UN and EU to establish a monitoring mission in the region due to concerns about man-made disasters. Miroshnik also said that the mission should not only focus on the Russian stronghold near the region but also on the Ukrainian stronghold where the Ukrainians have been shelling as that will also contribute to a potential disaster.  
 
On 21 October, Russia’s State Duma Committee on International Affairs reported that the Russian delegation from Rosatom and Rostekhnadoz for the international IAEA conference was not issued American visas. Speaking to Lenta.ru the First Deputy Chairman of the Committee Dmitry Novikoy said that this was a clear disregard for international relations and also brings into question the location of the UN headquarters. The delegation from Rosatom stated that their visas were blocked by the US and that this move made the IAEA conference lose its meaning. There will be a video message from the General Director of State Corporation Alexey Likhachev on the topic “Nuclear Energy in the XXI Century.” Novikoy said that he was not surprised as there was an issue with visas for the delegation attending the UNGA also. Hence, he said that it was time to shift the headquarters to either Europe, Latin America or Asia where the US will not be able to influence decisions and strongarm member nations.   
 
On 21 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Governor of the Magadan region Sergey Nosov who not only briefed him on the development in Magadan but also on the work of the Eastern Military District in the newly annexed regions. Nosov said that all the tasks given to them were completed and outlined the work they have done particularly in Donbas. The force has repaired key facilities to ensure heating for winter, and they have also repaired schools and kindergartens. Nosov assured that all those who have been conscripted and their families living in Magadan have been provided support.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 21 October, the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III and Ukraine Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov spoke on matters regarding Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself from Russian aggression. Austin expressed the US’s continued position for the support of Ukraine. He also reiterated the support of the international community in helping Ukraine survive the war and continue to help it build its defences. 
 
On 21 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at an EU leaders summit announced that the EU will be sending a total of EUR 18 billion to Ukraine in 2023 to cover its basic budgetary needs. The total package will be divided into EUR 1.5 billion per month and von der Leyen said that more details will be released later. This comes after the IMF estimated that Ukraine will need almost USD 4 Billion in international aid per month to ensure public services are still up.    
 
On 21 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he will be meeting Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson regarding the latter’s bid to join NATO. This comes in the background of Finland and Sweden applying for NATO membership considering Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine. Turkey had expressed doubts about the two joining the alliance as they believe that Sweden and Finland are safe havens for Kurdish Militants. When asked about this Kristersson said that both countries are ready to work with Turkey on this.
 
On 20 October, Bundesnetzagentur, Germany’s federal network regulator released a report which highlights that gas consumption in German households last week was down 31 per cent when it was compared to the consumption during the same period in 2018-2021. The agency attributed this to people contributing to the German government’s efforts to save gas considering the recent shortage due to the Russia-Ukraine war. They also have outlined that relatively hot weather in Germany has also contributed to this change in consumption.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 21 October, the IMF released the report of its mission in Ukraine. The Mission Chief Gavin Gray in a statement highlighted that the IMF team conducted its mission between 17-20 October in a meeting with Ukrainian authorities in Vienna. Some of the findings include a shrinking of Ukraine’s GDP, an increase in inflation, a disruption of trade and a significant increase in Ukraine’s fiscal deficit. Gray discussed these with Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko and Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyy. They also investigated new macro-financial developments, the 2023 budget, external financing, issues of the financial sector and policies that should be introduced for stabilising Ukraine’s economy. The authorities are now said to ask for a Program Monitoring with Board Involvement (PMB) which will investigate the matters that were discussed and help to implement it.
 
On 21 October, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr announced that they will be buying US military helicopters instead of Russian Mi-17 helicopters. The USD 215 million deal with Russia is being terminated due to fear of sanctions from the west and the Philippines is now looking into partial repayment of a down payment that was given to Russia for securing the initial deal. The US deal has matched the same price and includes further incentives such as service and maintenance for the helicopters. When the Russian ambassador to the Philippines was asked about the same, he told local outlets that they had not been informed of the same and believed that the contract was still valid.
 
On 21 October, Indonesia’s envoy to Russia reiterated that Russia’s invitation to the G20 summit will not be withdrawn despite pressure from other nations. Tavares said that the G20 summit can be an “opportunity for big economies to come together and solve the common problems we face now.” 

References
Ukraine liberates 88 settlements in Kherson region, 551 in Kharkiv region,” ukrinform, 21 October 2022  
Russians planted mines at Kakhovska HPP back in April - intelligence,” ukrinform, 21 October 2022  
Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the delegation of the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress,” president.gov.ua, 21 October 2022
Israel, Ukraine discuss air defence systems after drone strikes,” aljazeera, 21 Ocotber 2022
DPR has no plans to change curfew rules due to martial law — official,” Tass, 21 October 2022
Any mission to Kakhovka dam initiated by Kiev will be biased, LPR envoy says,” Tass, 21 October 2022
DPR ombudsman turns to ICRC, UN on reported torture of Russian POWs in Ukraine,” Tass, 21 October 2022
Russia proposed to move the UN headquarters,” LENTA.RU, 21 October 2022
Meeting with Governor of the Magadan region Sergey Nosov,” kremlin.ru, 21 October 2022
Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Phone Call With Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov,” defense.gov, 21 OCtober
Germans cut gas consumption amid war, warm weather,” Deutsche Welle, 20 October 2022
EU to provide Ukraine with €18 billion in financial assistance for 2023, says von der Leyen,” euronews, 21 October 2022
Turkey’s President ready for Nato talks with new Swedish PM,” thelocal.se, 21 October 2022
Ukraine: Statement at the Conclusion of an IMF Mission,” imf.org, 21 October 2022
Philippines gets US military helicopters after Russia deal dumped,” aljazeera, 21 Ocotber 2022
Putin’s G20 invite won’t be rescinded, Indonesian envoy says,” Politico, 21 October 2022

 


21 October 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #338

War in Ukraine: Day 239 | Energoatom Chief warns of nuclear disaster at Zaporizhzhia

Drone activities in Southwest Finland investigated; Liz Truss resigns after being the UK Prime Minister for 45 days; Slovenia passes new act that protects whistleblowers

Photo : Ukrinform


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee, and Sai Pranav 

DENMARK
The Moderates secure a chance to win 17 seats in the upcoming elections
On 19 October, a poll by Voxmeter institute showed that the Moderates had increased from 4.1 to 9.2 points. Mette Frederiksen’s ruling party, the Social Democrats, are the top as per the poll with 87 seats, and the opposition liberals are in second place with 71 seats. In case of Denmark’s former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s Moderates are expected to get 17 seats out of 179 in the parliament. To secure a majority 90 seats are required. (“Denmark’s former PM Rasmussen on course for election surprise in poll,” THE  LOCAL dk, 19 October 2022)

FINLAND
Probe over Drone activities in Southwest Finland
On 20 October, drones were sighted in Southwestern Finland, which houses important infrastructures such as water plants. The Chief Rescue Inspector of Southwestern Finland’s Regional Administrative Agency, Unto Usvasalo, said there was no information on the perpetrators or reason for the drone flights. Citizens were advised to report any suspicious activities. The Committee that investigated the matter speculates that drones could have aimed at the security of water supply amid the harsh economic conditions. The only concern is over social peace and the spread of misinformation. However, the preparedness committee assured the safety of the water supply. (Hannu Vahamaki, “Suspicious drones have been seen in the vicinity of the waterworks in Southwest Finland,” yle.fi, 20 October 2022)

New amendment to real estate acquisition act to ensure national security safety
On 20 October, Finland’s government has submitted a proposal to the parliament for supervising real estate ownership. The Act changes licence requirements in real estate acquisition. A new section will be added to the act so that real estate acquisitions would not harm national security. A licence application will be rejected if the stated puropese does coincide with real estate acquired. The Defence Ministry has the right investigate and enquire about the real estate acquisition if they find it unsuitable. To ensure the national security, the state would have the right to buy pre-emptively if the real estate acquisition becomes a threat. State’s pre-emptive rights prevail over municipality rights. The amendment will take effect from early 2023. (“Government proposal to Parliament: Real estate purchases must not endanger national security,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 20 October 2022)

FRANCE
Macron uses constitutional power to push 2023 budget through
On 19 October, the Guardian reported on French President, Emmanuel Macron using of special constitutional powers to force through the France’s 2023 budget. Far-right National Rally and left coalition Nupes accused Macron’s government practicing authoritarianism. The government’s pro-business budget was forcefully pushed through even though it received opposition from other parties. The Ministers justified the budget as way to protect people from the cost-of-living crisis and avoid tax increases. Marine Le Pen of the National Rally and Jean-Luc Melenchon from the left coalition wanted no-confidence motion against Macron. The right-wing and left-wing parties had voted against the budget leaving Macron to use the constitutional decree to push it through. Macron’s government justified that they had to take the decision due to intentional obstruction of passing the budget by the opposition parties. (Angelique Chrisafis, “French government to use constitutional powers to force through budget,” The Guardian, 19 October 2022)

LATVIA
Investigation against ex-NATO chief begins
On 19 October, an investigation was opened against ex-NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen by Latvian police. He is accused of playing a role in bankrupting PNB Banka where over EUR 140 million worth of assets went missing. Rasmussen served as the Danish Prime Minister before assuming his role in NATO. His spokesperson did not comment on this issue. Adding that the former deputy chairman of PNB’s independent steering group was acting “irresponsibly” the administrators said that EUR 140 million led to “gaps” in the bank’s assets. With former executives also being a part of the investigation, Rasmussen's case was set aside in Denmark when the bank’s lawyer unsuccessfully tried to have it brought before the country’s Supreme Court. (“Latvian police probe former NATO chief,” aa.com.tr, 19 October 2022)
 
SLOVENIA
Whistleblowers are protected under the new act passed by Slovenia
On 19 October, EURACTIV reported that Slovenia’s government introduced a bill that protects whistle-blowers. The bill is applicable in protecting those that report breaking of the EU laws and state laws as well. The bill also forbids employers from retaliating or terminating employees over whistleblowing. The employees who are retaliated receive free legal aid, unemployment benefits and counselling to pursue a case against their employers. Those that have been terminated are protected by the judicial system and receive needed supportive measures. Even though corruption is not prominent in Slovenia, organizations fighting corruption has been asking the government to pass a legislature protecting whistle-blowers. (Sebastijan R Macek, “Slovenia adopts whistleblowers act,” EURACTIV, 20 October 2022)
 
THE UK
Liz Truss resigns as the UK Prime Minister
On 20 October, the UK’s Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned from office due to pressure from her fellow conservative party members. She is the shortest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the UK, and it is the first time the UK has had two elections in four months. The withdrawal of the tax cut scheme caused economic instability in the UK. She said: “I recognise that I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party,” her mandate being to cut taxes and boost the economic growth of the UK. She added that the conservative party leader and the Prime Minister would be elected within the next week. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to participate in the snap election. (Joshua Nevett, “Liz Truss exit sets off another Tory leadership race,” BBC, 20 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Spain, Portugal and France agree to build a green corridor pipeline
On 20 October, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedri Sanchez and the Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa agreed on replacing the MidCat gas pipeline project with a cleaner green energy corridor at a meeting held in Brussels. France has been opposing the MidCat project for strategic and environmental reasons. The concerns that the MidCat pipeline will not be environmentally and economically viable by France has led to the demise of the project. France has agreed for a more ecological alternative pipeline between itself and the Iberian peninsula. The new green energy corridor will carry clean hydrogen that will be more ecological than the natural gas. The link between Barcelona and Marseille will named as BarMar connects Spain and France through a sea link. Portugal and Spain will also be linked through green interconnectors between Celourico da Beira and Zamora (CelZa). The pipeline will connect the energy island to the rest of the Europe through France. Gas will be transported through this pipeline for a short-term European energy market needs during the transition period to green energy. (Carlos E Cue and Silvia Ayuso, “Sánchez, Macron and Costa agree on a green energy corridor between Barcelona and Marseille instead of MidCat,” el pais, 20 October 2022) 

Exempted from following the gas price cap
On 21 October, in the European Council summit held to discuss on imposing of energy price cap, Hungary Prime Minister Victor Orban said that the European Commission’s proposal posed an energy risk, threatening its gas supplies despite supply from Europe. He highlighted that Hungary was not in alone in opposing the price and in face of keeping the gas supplies intact, defending Hungary interest was priority. Therefore, Hungary will be exempted from the application of energy price cap. (“Hungary Receives Exemption from the Gas Price Cap,” Hungary Today, 21 October 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
German banks collaborate with Austria over crypto trading
On 20 October, Germany’s online bank N26 had started allowing customers in Austria to trade in Austrian cryptocurrencies in its first foray into the asset class. The German bank said it would enlarge its service abroad to facilitate the trade of almost 200 cryptocurrencies. N26 has joined hands with Austria-based cryptocurrency. The problem for N26 is that, it does not have licence to be traded in Germany. Cryptocurrencies which have been falling due to it being a risky investment but the EU is planning on voting new rules for crypto assets in December or early 2023. Even though cryptocurrencies are higher risk investments, N26 says that there have been growing requests for them. (“German online bank N26 to launch crypto trading in Austria,” Reuters, 20 October 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
US authorities arrest Latvians for Russia ties
On 19 October, the US Department of Justice arrested three Latvians for allegedly trying to send advanced technology to Russia. The accused reportedly made the purchase through shell companies to evade sanctions placed on Russia. They made the purchase disguised for the European market but were caught by Latvian officials. The technology was a high-precision profiling machine produced in Connecticut which can be used in weapons manufacturing and nuclear weapons programs. The US Justice Department said some of the “…powerful, civil-military, dual-use technologies” were found, which included the Latvians. Intercepting the jig grinder in Riga, Latvia, the US authorities worked with Latvian authorities to capture the miscreants. The cargo was detained at the Latvian- Russian border, with the three suspects held in the Latvian territory by VID Taxes and Customs Police. (“US busts schemes allegedly selling high-tech to Russia; Latvians charged,” Eng.LSM.lv, 20 October 2022)

Proposal for a new collaboration over elevator production
On 20 October, Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko proposed a project to produce elevators in collaboration with Armenia. The project is expected to bring “machine building competencies as part of the foreign trade and a step to future projects in mechanical engineering. The trade between Belarus and Armenia in 2021 accounted for USD 97.2 million and USD 105.7 million as of August 2022. (“Belarus' proposal for joint manufacturing project supported by Armenia,” Belta, 20 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 239
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 20 October, Energoatom President Petro Kotin spoke about the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and elaborated on why it was necessary to ensure its protection. He accused Russia of trying to seek control of the plant, thus threatening a global disaster. Kotin also said that on 15 September, Russia's forces broke into the chief engineer's office and declared that Russia would control the plant. He then went on to outline why it was imperative to keep at least one power unit functional, as the steam from the unit is the only way to keep operating conditions of the equipment in optimum condition. He also mentioned that the plant switches to diesel generators if disconnected from the power grid. However, there is a chance of a Fukushima-like disaster, if the diesel generators stop or fail.

On 20 October, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked the forces in the Russian occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine to “avoid” being recruited into the Russian army. Mentioning his meeting with the European Commissioner for Crisis Management, he added that the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians were supported by other EU member states. He requested the people to leave the temporarily occupied territories “as much as they can.” 

On 20 October, Zelenskyy introduced electricity saving-measures following Russia's attack on several power grids across the country. 30 per cent of the country's power stations were affected due to the drone and missile strikes, and thus, Ukraine has asked its citizens to restrict their electricity consumption drastically. On this issue, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that even a small saving or reduction in energy usage would be helpful for the national energy system.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 October, RT reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Martial Law in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions. With these provinces accepting to be a part of the Russian territory, Putin said that they “accepted” their bids and that the Russian law would “ratify” the law quickly. Second, Alert regimes. In another decree, Putin announced a “medium action level” in other regions of Russia, including the Crimean Republic, Sevastopol, Krasnodar, etc. The regime gives officials in the region extra authority to assure security and react immediately in case of emergencies, with the additional four regions having a “maximum” level of authority. Third, Government coordination. Putin directed the federal government to formalize a special coordination centre to address wider aspects of the Ukraine crisis, starting from weapon system repairs to the provision of medical treatment to injured persons. He said that Moscow would assist the officials in handling new tasks and powers.  Fourth, support of mobilized reservists. Among a set of directives given to the Defense Ministry, Putin mentioned the need to ensure that individuals enrolled in active military service under the partial mobilization decree are to be paid their dues. Setting a minimum monthly age of 195,000 rubles, Putin added that he’s “reacting” to cases of postponement of wages being paid, and stressed providing the military “what it needs to do its job properly.” On the same, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified Vladimir Putin’s stance on the introduction of martial law in the four former Ukrainian regions. He said that Russia was not planning to close the borders. 

On 20 October, Kherson’s Deputy Governor, Kirill Stremousov said that the relocation of civilians in the area was under control. He described the process as organized and was progressing as per plan and hailed the martial rule initiated by Putin as a measure that would further ensure the safety of civilians.

On 20 October, the Russian Military of Defence used a tank reserve to curb their offensive in Kherson. Near the village of Sukhanovo in Kherson region, the military thwarted Ukraine’s charge. A representative of the department made known that the Ukrainian forces “fled randomly” from the front after the disruption of their offensive. Saying that Russian troops near the Sukhanovo village were “ambushed” but recovered quickly. Adding that the position of the Russian forces on the front line of defence has been “fully restored.” The Ministry of Defence also reported on the “attempt” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cross the Stallion River in the Red Limansk direction. 

On the same day, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky denied the veracity of the West’s claim about Iran’s drone exports to Russia. He said that this was a disinformation campaign to target both Iran and Russia with the same narrative. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 20 October, US federal prosecutors in Brooklyn charged five Russian nationals for evading sanctions imposed against them and shipping military technologies bought in the US to buyers in Russia. A federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, Breon Peace commented on the development and said, “We will continue to investigate, disrupt and prosecute those who fuel Russia's brutal war in Ukraine, evade sanctions and perpetuate the shadowy economy of transnational money laundering”. Of the five Russian nationals, Yury Orekhov and Svetlana Kuzurgasheva had purchased semiconductors, radas and satellites, and had used a German company to ship the military technology. 

On the same day, German newspaper Bild reported that Germany’ President Frank Walter Steinmeier had cancelled his trip to Kyiv to meet President Zelenskyy, due to the recent escalation in missile and drone attacks on the capital. While the strategically important trip had been planned for months, Steinmeier’s security authorities have advised against the trip. A presidential spokesperson said that the trip had been important for both sides, and for now a phone call has been arranged for the two presidents.

On 20 October, Lithuania’s Education, Science and Sports Ministry allocated funds for Ukrainian athletes who had moved to Lithuania. EUR 81,500 will be distributed to the athletes via the corresponding sporting foundations of seven sports- swimming, tennis, athletics, hockey, handball, bodybuilding and Kyokushin karate. 

On 21 October, BBC reported on Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s comments on a “potentially dangerous” incident of Russia deploying a missile from their aircraft near an unarmed RAF plane over the Black Sea. He alleged that Russia was not beyond using the “wrong calculations” and posing an attack, and that this incident should serve as a reminder of how volatile it can be when “…you choose to use your fighters in the manner that the Russians have done.” However, Wallace said that this was not being viewed as a “deliberate escalation” by the UK. Russia said that the incident had occurred due to technical malfunction. 

On 20 October, The Washington Post reported on the US government examining the damages caused by Iran-made drones that have been shot down in Ukraine. The objective is to better understand the drone’s structure and technology that would help the US and Ukraine identify the level of threat from these drones. It is however unclear how the US accessed the drone wreckage. Earlier, on the same lines Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said: “We all have to understand that we all have to put our efforts to that. To understand how it works, and to understand how to take it down… Because it’s not only the question of Ukraine at war at the moment, but it’s a question of all of us who are in the situation where we are.” 

On 19 October, EU leaders and social partners met at the tripartite social summit. They primarily discussed the cost of living crisis and the energy crisis that is affecting the EU. They also spoke about the impact of the Ukraine war. Europe Council President Charles Michel said that while the EU has taken some measure, more needs to be done soon, for the EU to avoid severe crisis. Europe Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke about the initiatives put forward by the Commission to help alleviate the pressure on the economy, but urged everyone to be “on board.” The General Secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) Luca Visentini called for energy price caps and a windfall tax on excess profits for emergency payments.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 October, Euronews reported that Madagascar's president had fired his Foreign Affairs Minister for his vote at the UN General assembly against Russia's referendums. Minister Richard Randriamandrato had voted in favour of not recognising the occupied regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, DPR AND LPR as parts of Russia. However, this was not aligned with Madagascar's official neutral stance. Thus, Randriamandrato was fired for voting in favour. 

On 20 October, India's government issued an advisory to its citizens in Ukraine. Announced through the Indian embassy in Kyiv, the advisory referred to the worsening security conditions in Ukraine and urged citizens and students to leave the country at the earliest.

References
Ukraine Restricts Electricity Use After Russian Strikes,” Kyiv Post, 20 October 2022
Energoatom Chief Warns of “Fukushima Scenario” at Zaporizhzhia NPP,” Kyiv Post, 20 October 2022
President Zelensky: Occupiers will try to recruit men into their army, avoid this as much as you can,” Ukrinform, 20 October 2022
As Russia Retreats, Abandoned Gear Joins Ranks of Ukraine Army,” Kyiv Post 20 October 2022
Putin announces new security measures in Russia,” RT, 19 October 2022
The Russian military thwarted the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson,” LENTA.RU, 20 October 2022
Russia’s deputy UN envoy dismisses reports of Iran’s drone exports to Russia,” TASS, 20 October 2022
 “Russia will not shut borders – Kremlin,” RT, 19 October 2022
Kherson Region official says relocation progressing well,” TASS, 20 October 2022
Lithuania government allocates over €80,000 for Ukrainian athletes,” LRT.lt, 20 October 2022
Russian jet released missile near RAF aircraft over Black Sea,” BBC, 20 October 2022
Luc Cohen and Daphne Psaledakis, “U.S. charges Russians for shipping military equipment, Venezuelan oil,” Reuters, 20 October 2022
German President Steinmeier cancels long-awaited visit to Kyiv,” POLITICO, 20 October 2022
Shane Harris, Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton and Karen DeYoung “U.S. has viewed wreckage of kamikaze drones Russia used in Ukraine,” The Washington Post, 20 October 2022
“‘New era’: Chinese senior diplomat highlights partnership with Russia,” TASS, 20 October 2022
Madagascar minister fired for voting against Russia's Ukraine annexation,” Euronews, 20 October 2022
Indian Embassy ask all Indians to leave Ukraine,” The Statesman, 20 October 2022


20 October 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #337

War in Ukraine: Day 238 | Russia's President Vladimir Putin declares martial law

Investigation for four accused in cryptocurrency fraud starts in Estonia; The Czech Republic identifies Russia, China and radical Islam as threats; Giorgia Meloni to set up government by 26 October

Photo : Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/RT


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee and Madhura S Mahesh

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
Activists demand hydropower plant company to drop lawsuits
On 19 October, EURACTIV reported on activists in Bosnia & Herzegovina protesting against the Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation (SLAPP) lawsuits filed against them for their stance on the harmful impacts of a hydropower plant on the Kasindolska river. In 2017, the hydropower plant was built by Bosnian construction company Buk Promet d.o.o, where private Belgian company, dealing with renewable energy production, Green Invest is a shareholder. However, since then, two Bosnian activists started to spread awareness about the negative impacts of the plant on the river and its natural ecosystem. In response, BUK d.o.o filed three defamation lawsuits seeking EUR 7,500 in damages with the threat of further legal action against the activists. Now, following the lawsuits, 140 organisations and groups from Europe, especially Bosnia & Herzegovina and also the US have signed an open letter which will be sent to the diplomatic representatives of Belgium, the Head of the EU Delegation in BiH, and other relevant international institutions asking to condemn the company’s recent activities. (“Belgian-based company causes environmental uproar in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” EURACTIV, 19 October 2022)

THE CZECH REPUBLIC
The three main threats to Czech security by security services
On 17 October, the Security Information Service (BIS) of Czechia identified Russia, China and radical Islam as the main international security threats to the country. Russia’s threat while decreasing, it is still existing in the form of pro-Russian political agenda touted by journalists. After Czech expelled over 100  Russian embassy staff in 2021, the threat has declined but the recent support to Ukraine has made BIS keep a close eye on any potential threats. China is an emerging yet important threat according to the BIS. With relations being strained between the two countries, the BIS has found that Chinese intelligence has kept an active interest in developments in Czechia. This is seen with them recruiting journalists to speak on Czechia. The BIS has also found that there are two “unofficial police stations” that assist Chinese citizens in Czechia. This direct connection with the Chinese state has put the BIS on edge due to Chinese law that urges all citizens to help in intelligence activities. Lastly, with respect to radical Islam, the BIS fears that there will be an increase in the number of people influenced by propaganda and future threats to the state. They are also keeping a close eye on ex-Islamists who were expelled from Czechia regarding their entry and exit from the country. (​​“China, Russia, and radical Islam: Security service details threats to Czechia,” expats.cz, 18 October 2022) 

ESTONIA
Estonia begins trails for four men accused of cryptocurrency fraud
On 19 October, ERR News reported on the investigation on four Estonian citizens in relation to a cryptocurrency fraud, who profited EUR eight million. As per the district prosecutor Kristiina Laas, the four are suspected to have provided false information to sell the Dragcoin cryptocurrency. Laas mentioned that the four had pegged their currency to their user base, This meant that the price of the cryptocurrency would increase where there were more users. The four thus inflated the number of users falsely to increase the price of the cryptocurrency. The Head of the central criminal police’s economic crimes office said that the accused had taken advantage of a time when cryptocurrency sector was unregulated. As per Estonia’s norms, the proceedings will be conducted by the Central Criminal Police's economic crimes bureau and be directed by the Southern District Prosecutor's Office. (“Four suspected in €8-million cryptocurrency fraud,” ERR News, 20 October 2022)

ITALY
Italy’s new government to be set up by 26 October
On 19 October, the process to form a government to replace Mario Draghi's administration began. With the Giorgia Meloni from Brothers of Italia winning the major share of votes is expected to carry out the negotiations with the right alliance parties in terms of ministerial appointments to form the government and is probable to become the first female Prime Minister. Sergio Mattarella as speaker of the parliament will invite the opposition parties and the new government will take charge between 22 -24th October upon winning a vote of confidence in the parliament. (“Italy begins negotiations on forming new government,” Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2022)

LATVIA
Potential coalition partners reach agreement on Administrative Territorial Reform
On 18 October, the potential coalition partners of New Unity and Combined List in Latvia held a meeting, where they reached agreements on Administrative Territorial Reform and the sea port reform and also discussed the way forward. New Unity’s leader, Krisjanis Karins said that discussion on these issues at this point of Latvia's government formation was crucial. He mentioned that the topics discussed at the meeting would be positive news for his upcoming meeting with President Egils Levits on 24 October. Combined List politician and head of Liepaja Party Uldis Sesks spoke about the issue. She said that the new government must not backtrack from the improvements discussed on the sea port reform. Sesks reiterated that the Combined List and the New Unity agreed on Latvia’s need to create a state-owned LNG terminal with a connection to the Inčukalns gas storage facility. (“Coalition partners in Latvia agree on state reforms; government composition not discussed,” bbn-news.com, 19 October 2022)

10,000 Latvian homes have household electricity generation systems
On 19 October, ENG.LSM.lv reported that Latvia was making great progress in terms of self-generation of electricity in households. Earlier, the number of Latvia’s micro-generators, mostly in the form of solar panels reached 10 000, with 80 megawatts of capacity. It can thus account for almost 10 per cent of the country’s energy needs. Latvia's electricity distribution network, Sadales tīkls, (ST) said that the Marupe municipality has the greatest number of microgenerators with around 1020, followed by Rīga with 860. In a statement, ST said: "We have been lagging behind the development of the RES for many years in the Baltic States, but in the first half of this year, we outperformed Estonia at microgeneration development rates and are continuing this rapid rise. In fact, we've run a marathon like a sprint.” (“Electricity-generating homes hit 10,000 mark in Latvia,” Eng.LSM.lv, 19 October 2022)

LITHUANIA
Kaunas installs its first diagonal crossing for pedestrians
On 19 February, LRT.lt reported that X crossings have been marked in Lithuania’s second-biggest city, Kaunas for the first time. At such crossings, all vehicular movement is stopped from all directions at the same time, to make it easier for the pedestrians to cross in all direction, including diagonally. They are installed in places, which record heavy pedestrian footfall, like the world’s busiest pedestrian intersection at Shibuya, Tokyo. The head of the Transport and Traffic Organisation Division at Kaunas Municipality spoke about the benefits of such crossings and said: “It is also comfortable and safe for disabled people, with lowered kerbs to make it easier to move.” He also added that the city might consider more diagonal crossings in the future. (“Kaunas installs Lithuania’s first X crossing,” LRT.lt, 19 October 2022)

SLOVENIA
UNHCR releases factsheet on refugee situation
On 19 October, the UNHCR released a factsheet on the condition of refugees in Slovenia for September. The report said that due to the additional 8000 people from Ukraine along with 5000 new asylum applications from other countries, Slovenia's reception capacity is under stress. Until September 7768 of the 8117 Ukrainian refugees were registered under temporary protection. Monitored closely by the UNHCR, 39 per cent of the children were also enrolled in primary and secondary education. Of the refugees from other countries, Afghanistan remained the top country of origin for new arrivals and record numbers of people also arrived from India, Burundi and Cuba. (“UNHCR Slovenia Factsheet, September 2022,” reliefweb.int19 October 2022)

SWITZERLAND
MCTR chair shifts from Russia to Switzerland
On 19 October, members of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MCTR) met in the plenary meeting, where Switzerland replaced Russia as a chair of the MCTR. Ambassador Benno Laggner was appointed as the Swiss chair who will head Switzerland efforts towards control the WMD and the delivery system. In a statement the government said: “Switzerland is assuming the chair of the MTCR at a sensitive time, especially as the current international context and recent security developments have made multilateral consensus-building efforts more difficult.” Although MCTR has the power to decide on the nature of materials and equipment’s used in ballistic missiles, it lacks the legal power. (“Switzerland replaces Russia as chair of ballistic missile body,” Swissinfo, 19 October 2022)

THE UK
The UK’s Prime Minister under pressure from the Tory MPs
On 19 October, UK parliament witnessed drastic set of events in one day with member of the Tory urging Prime Minister Liz Truss to step down and Suella Braverman resigning from her Home Secretary position on concern of “direction of the government.” An immediate replacement was Grant Shapps former transport secretary. Followed by the resignation the vote conducted on fracking upon the Tory ministers request to verify whether it was done in confidence of the government, where 326 voted against the ban, 230 were in favour, and 40 avoided to vote. With the increased pressure two ways Truss can survive would be due to unavailability of an alternate leader to head the Tory and secondly the worry amongst the parliament over UK’s economy slide. (“Crisis for Truss deepens after day of chaos,” BBC, 20 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Italy to command Bulgarian NATO battlegroup
On 17 October, Bulgaria hosted Italian Defence Minister Lorenzo Guerini, and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher G. Cavoli for the change of command of NATO’s multinational battlegroup. The battlegroup in Bulgaria is now under the command of Italy’s Colonel Francesco Alaimo. Italy will now command the 1,100 troops from several NATO countries based in Bulgaria specialising in manoeuvring, infantry, air defence, anti-tank and engineering. Established in March in Bulgaria, the group will fight with the host nation in times of need outlining the collective defence principle of NATO. (“Italy takes command of NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Bulgaria,” nato.int, 17 October 2022) 
     
INTERNATIONAL 
Poland to buy military equipment from South Korea
On 18 October, Polish Defence Ministry released a statement outlining its purchase of rocket launchers from South Korea. The deal will arm Poland with 18 new 288 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers in 2023 and be installed on Polish Jelcz vehicles. Poland is also receiving its order of K2 tanks and K9 artillery from South Korea made in early 2022. These deals reflect Poland’s move to ramp up its weapons stock after Russia invaded Ukraine. This new deal has made Poland the largest buyer of arms from South Korea. (“Poland To Buy 288 Multiple Rocket Launchers From South Korea,” Barron’s, 18 October 2022)
  
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Hungary inaugurates new 5G-logistics terminal
On 18 October, Hungary became the first European country to have a land-based intermodal logistics terminal using 5G technology. Located in Fenyeslitke, it was built by Vodafone Hungary with network support from Huawei. The entire project cost more than HUF 40 billion and is the largest facility in Europe in its theoretical capacity and area. The main function of the terminal is to help tranship rail shipments and has the potential to become the largest rail hub for Ukraine’s food exports. (“Europe's first 5G-operated logistics terminal opens in Hungary,” CGTN, 19 October 2022)   
 
Turkey to use blockchain technology for new services project
On 19 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan outlined his plans for the e-Human project to be powered by blockchain technology. Unveiled at Turkey’s national blockchain summit, it will be used to enhance the protection of the system’s capabilities, data and services. The e-Human project was introduced to help people access key government services regarding jobs, education and talent acquisition. It looks forward to increasing employment and growth of citizens. This new move comes when the Turkish government promotes an anti-crypto stance but at the same time, it promotes using technology in building infrastructure and expanding its ecosystem. (“Turkey taps blockchain for e-Human project, President Erdoğan announces,” cointelegraph, 19 October 2022)  


War in Ukraine: Day 238
By Sai Pranav 

War on the Ground
On 19 October, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported in a Facebook post that Russia was trying to suppress the Defence Forces in all directions while holding on to the temporarily occupied regions in Ukraine. The report also said that the Defence Forces Unit had struck down 10 of the 14 Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drones. Russia is also trying to hide the logistics of military equipment and personnel. They had blocked mobile and internet operators from working as a measure to hide their movement in the Kherson region. Russian troops had also destroyed Ukrainian heritage sites, robbed museums, and burned their books and literature printed in Russian. Russia still has the support of Belarus and it helps launch Russia’s missiles from its territory.

On 19 October, Ukraine’s Cabinet Ministers approved the procedure to send the soldiers fighting in the war to foreign countries for treatment. People from the defence and security forces will be given treatment in foreign countries if they fulfil mandatory conditions like a referral for treatment abroad and a notification from the Emergency Response Coordination Center of the European Commission. The transportation of said soldiers to the hospitals abroad will be organized by the Health Ministry with the assistance of the Defence Ministry, the Internal Affairs Ministry, the Administration of the State Border Service and the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

On 19 October, according to Melitopol’s Mayor Ivan Fedorov, Russia was forcing the residents of the Kherson region to flee to their country with a promise of money and housing. The reason for the forcible deportation was that Russia wanted the residents to be protected from enemies. However, Federov thinks that Russia is seeking to make Kherson its outpost in the south of Ukraine.

On the same day, the National Republican Army sent evidence of hacking important information from Russia’s defence and intelligence contractors. The NRA had breached important files of Technoserv, which Russia uses as a defence consultancy service. The bank that Technoserv own, Promsvyazbank, was also the victim of the hacking. According to the UK government intelligence, 70 per cent of the state contracts signed by Russia’s Defence Ministry are serviced by Promsvyazbank. The hackers had sent 1.2 terabytes of documents, files, and screenshots to Kyiv Post and had left a note to Technoserv informing them of hacking their servers. The NRA is opposed to Putin and is trying to stand against the ruling regime.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 October, RT reported that Putin issued a decree to imposing ae martial law on the four occupied regions, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The martial law will be put come into practise from had started on midnight of 20 October. The decree orders the Russian government to submit action plans for these regions within three days and a three-level security across Ukraine and Russia. First, he also signed a decree ordering a “mid-level response” state in other Russian-occupied parts such as the Crimean Republic, the city of Sevastopol, Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov regions. Second, a “heightened readiness,” in the central, southern parts of Russia, where a tight search on vehicles and public order will be carried out. Third, the last level of security will be applied in the northern Russia, Serbia, and its far-east.

On 19 October, TASS reported that the attack on Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station may be fatal to the Kherson region as it will be subject to flooding from the Dnieper River. The residents were asked to evacuate from the right side to the left side for safety due to the flood warning.
 
On 19 October, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a virtual meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. Putin discussed the recent referendums and problems faced by Russia during the special operation in Ukraine. Through the presidential decree a special coordination council was set up under the head of the cabinet of ministers, which will ensure close interaction with every district in the country. He also addressed the issue on  payment of monetary allowance by announcing 195,000 rubles per month to those recruited under the partial mobilization. In the council meeting they also discussed on ways to improve the State Migration Policy.
 
On 10 October, Russian oil company Rosneft expanded its tanker chartering business ahead of the EU sanctions on Russia’s oil export. The EU had placed sanctions on Russian oil tankers, which will make Russia redirect 25 per cent of its oil exports to new markets. Rosneft will deliver the oil export before the embargo comes into effect. The Russian oil company had used the free-on-board (FOB) scheme in oil sales that lets the buyer bear the costs of charter tankers, freight, insurance and delivery. Rosneft through the charter tankers, will help customers who are not subject to the sanctions in handling freight and shipping. Rosneft offering charter tankers will help customers who are inexperienced with handling freight and shipping.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 19 October, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country could become a hub for gas to Europe through supplying Russian gas. Putin had said that he would make Turkey a hub for natural gas by redirecting the fossil fuel supplied through Nord Stream pipelines to the TurkStream pipeline. The pipeline aims to supply gas to the European states through the Thrace region bordering Greece and will also provide service to Serbia and Hungary. Erdogan said that Turkey could become a relief factor to Europe’s energy crisis following the gas leaks in Nord Stream pipelines.
 
On 19 October, in an address at the European Parliament, the European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia for committing war crimes through attacks on civilian infrastructure aimed at cutting water and power supplies to the region. She called the attack an “Act of Pure Terror”.

On 19 October, the UK government’s intelligence in its daily update reported on how the change in Russian military’s leadership did not benefit the Russians and has resulted in more confusion within the army. The shortage of capable leaders in the country, as most died. It has caused disruption within the army and has weakened its strength. Consecutive defeats in the battlefield and weakening of leadership has reduced the morale of the Russian troops. The troops also lack coordination among them in many areas. 
 
On 19 October, the EU agreed to impose a new set of sanctions on Iran, especially its generals and officials, for providing Russia with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. These suicidal drones were used in the recent attack on Kyiv by Russia. The sanctions were imposed on Shahed Aviation Industries, the company that manufactures the drone, along with Maj Gen Mohammad Hossein bagheri, who is significant in Iran’s defence cooperation with Russia, Gen Sayed Hojatollah Qureishi, head of Iran’s supply and research at its Defence Ministry, Brig Gen Saeed Aghajani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace for UAV command, in the form of travel bans and freezing of assets.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 October, Reuters reported on India and Russia's joint venture BrahMos Aerospace which aims  to make USD five billion by 2025. It signed its first deal with the Philippines for USD 375 million in 2022. The joint venture includes Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam for further weaponry export orders. India owns 50.5 per cent, while Russia holds 49.5 per cent of the partnership, complying with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s make-in-India programme. The joint venture looks to provide funds for Russia amidst the ongoing war.

On 18 October, UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan announced to allocate of USD 100 million as humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. UAE has provided a series of aid to war-torn Ukraine after the UN appeal and the regional refugee response plan with an aim to support Ukraine.

On 19 October, DOHANEWS reported that Qatar’s Energy Minister and Qatar Energy CEO Saad Sherida Al Kaabi cautioned that the energy crisis of Europe would last till 2025. He said that Russia’s gas and oil contributed to Europe’s energy storage significantly and that it would suffer once that supply finished off. Qatar could only fill 10 to 15 per cent of Europe's gas storage in the future.. According to him, Europe should look at cleaner fossil fuels as a long-term solution, as renewable sources may take longer duration and it would be impossible for Europe to fully phase out of Russian gas.

On 19 October, Israel offered to aid the Ukrainians in developing civilian air attack alerts. Israel will help Ukraine in countering Iranian-made drones used by Russia. However, Ukraine had asked for defence systems to destroy the incoming kamikaze Shahed-136 drone. Israel has been reluctant to help Ukraine, although they had condemned Russia for invading it. Israel wanted to give an early warning system that sets off sirens or mobile phone alerts to warn people to seek protection via a radar network. Israel said that it would help Ukraine with humanitarian aid and not with military aid because it wanted relations with Russia for its help in Syria.

References
General Staff of the Armed Forces, “Operational information as of 06.00 19.10.2022 on the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 19 October 2022
Jason Jay Smart, “Russians Against Putin: NRA Claims Massive Hack of Russian Government Contractors’ Computers,” Kyiv Post, 18 October 2022 
Invaders to forcibly deport Kherson residents en masse,” Ukrinform, 19 October 2022
The government updated the procedure for sending defenders of Ukraine for treatment abroad,” kmu.gov.ua, 19 October 2022
Rosneft gets into oil shipping ahead of EU embargo,” RT, 19 October 2022
Putin introduces martial law in former Ukrainian regions,” RT, 19 October 2022
Security Council meeting,” kremlin.ru, 19 October 2022
Kherson Region closed to inbound civilian traffic for seven days — local official,” TASS, 19 October 2022
Kherson governor warns of flooding if nearby hydropower station’s water gates breached,” TASS, 19 October 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 October 2022,” Twitter, 19 October 2022
Russian attacks on Ukraine infrastructure are war crimes - EU's von der Leyen,” Reuters, 19 October 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “EU plans to impose sanctions on Iran military leaders over drones,” The Guardian, 19 October 2022
Emily Rose, “Israel offers help with air-attack alerts, but Ukraine wants interceptors,” Reuters, 19 October 2022
Fatemeh Salari, “Europe risks ‘much worse’ energy crisis next year: QatarEnergy CEO,” DOHANEWS, 19 October 2022
Jennifer Bell, “UAE president orders $100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” Al Arabiya, 19 October 2022
India-Russia joint venture hopes for $5 billion in supersonic missile exports by 2025,” The Times of India, 18 October 2022
India-Russia joint venture hopes for $5 bln in supersonic missile exports by 2025,” Reuters, 18 October 2022


19 October 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #336

ASEAN and the EU sign air transport agreement: Five takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 237

Photo : mot.gov.sg


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

ASEAN and the EU sign first-ever region-to-region air transport agreement: Five takeaways

What happened?
On 17 October, ASEAN and the EU signed a Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement (CATA) at the 28th ASEAN Transport minister’s meeting held in Indonesia. The agreement marks the world’s first region-to-region cooperation on air-transport regulation, which is expected to promote opportunities for airlines and cargoes between both regions in the post-pandemic recovery. Apart from aviation, the regional collaboration is also aimed to boost technical assistance, climate change, and carbon offsetting arising from aviation, and endorse the EU-South East Asia aviation partnership.

Five takeaways
First, multilateralism through the EU lens, In the era of state-to-state cooperation and blurring regional unity, the EU centers its founding principle and foreign policy on multilateralism. It's striving for multilateral cooperation to address the global problem has been the root of its external relations. The signing of the CATA not only aims to improve the international aviation system and establish a competitive and fair environment for the airlines to provide the best service but also to strengthen the political, and economic equation.

Second, regional aviation fluidity. The agreement breaks the barriers of limited flights and increases the flexible movement of people, and cargo, improves aviation safety, and traffic management, and also takes in the environmental and social matters in focus. It provides no area for complex rules and varied regulations as per the country and offers a common set of rules for both regions’ air industries, thereby avoiding red tape. Through the aero-political agreement, the third, fourth, and fifth freedoms of the air are relaxed where the flight does not necessarily have to board passengers from where it’s taking off but will be allowed to go to the second country take in passenger/cargoes and de-load in another third country. The larger aim of the agreement is to create a single sustainable aviation market.

Third, delayed the signing of the agreement was due to different institutional nature. The first set of talks began in 2016 between the EU and ASEAN and prolonged till 2022 to become a written agreement. The major reason behind the delay is due to the different nature of both organizations, the ASEAN countries operate on a sovereign basis, while the EU member states follow uniformly the rule levied by the European Commission.  After the first round of talks, the EU announced the suspension of 140 individual bilateral deals between the AMS (ASEAN member states) and the EU member states. EU’s aim remained to use the CATA platform to improve consumer protection and establish large aviation cooperation, but it prompted eight rounds of negotiations. Till 2019, ASEAN and EU remained unsettled in terms of security, safety, and operation of the aircraft. This prolonged the agreement process and COVID-19 brought more pressure to recover the aviation industry as it incurred a total loss of USD 47.7 billion in 2021.

Fourth, increased economic cooperation between Indonesia and Benelux countries. The deal is a boon for Indonesia and Benelux countries especially due to the opening of market opportunities to compete with other airlines and provide airline services to AMS and the EU member states. Key examples of the boosting of economic and aviation cooperation could be the KLM (Netherlands airlines), and Brussels Airlines, which have a “codeshare” cooperation with Bangkok Airways, Malaysia Airlines, Vietnam Airlines, Singapore Airlines, and Thai Airways saw a decrease in the air traffic in 2019 will now have the possibility to boost back with the deal and also increase the number of destinations in Asia. In the case of Luxair, which does not have any codeshare cooperation with any of the ASEAN countries nor has any external destination other than Egypt and Tunisia, will now be able to advantage of the agreement and expand its market and services into the ASEAN region.

Fifth, more than aviation cooperation. The deal is not only aimed at establishing a single aviation international market but also to boost its economy through the exchange of people, and tourism to lead towards more multilateral agreements. It also provides a space to re-work the existing initiatives such as the Enhanced ASEAN Regional Integration Support from the EU (ARISE Plus) programme, EU-South East Asia on Cooperation on Mitigating Climate Change impact from Civil Aviation, and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (EU-SEA CCCA CORSIA). The success of this cooperation will showcase a model for the global powers to unite under the regional umbrella and paves way for multilateralism.

References
ASEAN and the EU sign the world’s first bloc-to-bloc Air Transport Agreement - joint press release,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022
Aviation: Landmark EU–ASEAN agreement to connect 1.1 billion people,” ec.europa.eu, 17 October 2022
ASEAN and the European Union Sign Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement,” mot.gov.sg, 17 October 2022
Shan Li cho, “ASEAN-EU Air Transport Agreement and Its Implications to the Economic Cooperation Between Indonesia-Benelux Countries. A Multilateralism Perspective,” Winkly Research Institute of technology and science, April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee, Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

ALBANIA
Teachers protests continue amidst renewed salary hike demands
On 18 October, EURACTIV reported on the protests by teachers and students from public universities in Albania against the government’s inaction to their higher salary demands. As the academic year started in Albania from 17 October, the protestors demanded a 50 per cent pay rise, while the government promised to increase it only by 17 per cent. While the protest took place in Tirana, teachers and practitioners from Durres, Elbasan, Shkodra, extending to Vlora and Korce. On the issue, Education Minister, Evis Kushi said similar to other European countries, Albania was also suffering from the impacts of the war in Ukraine and had done its best to provide scholarship to exempt some students from fees. (Alice Taylor, “Albanian teachers stage protest, demand 50% wage increase,” EURACTIV, 18 October 2022)

CROATIA
Small distributes protest against the government’s energy policy
On 19 October, Croatia’s small oil retailers filed a lawsuit at the country’s Constitutional Court against the government's recent policies to align with the EU’s energy policy. On 17 October, the government set a fresh price cap on oil derivatives despite a rise in fuel prices. This is leading to the retailers having to sell fuel at one Kuna less per litre. Thus, the protestors warned that given the current energy situation, such a policy will lead to a shortage of fuel and further destabilize the energy market. They allege that the cap set by the government will also make recovery from the current crisis even more difficult. (Zoran Radosavljevic, “Small Croatian distributors file constitutional suit against price caps,” EURACTIV, 18 October 2022)
 
DENMARK
Discriminatory remark from Nye Borgerlige party’s member of parliament
On 18 October, Denmark’s far-right party Nye Borgerlige (New Right) was accused of being anti-Semitic and homophobic after one of its MPs, Mette Thiesen, had responded to a question on DR’s P1 Morgen radio programme. She suggested that it was acceptable for an elderly person to refuse care from a Jewish or a gay person in their home. The remark created a huge backlash to the party. The left-wing Red-Green Alliance (Enhedslisten) party and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticized Nye Borgelige for having such thoughts that are destructive to society. The comment followed a discussion on allowing carers who wear hijab and also a refusal by elderly people. The opposition of the far-right party criticised the party for spreading discrimination among people. Nye Borgelige responded that it was the right of the elderly to choose their caretaker and allow people into their homes. The party’s head, Pernille Vermund, said that there was no ill intention behind the statement and the far-right part was not anti-Semitic and homophobic. (“Danish far-right party accused of antisemitism over elderly care remarks,” The Local dk, 18 October 2022)

ESTONIA
Plans to install a nuclear power plant by 2035
On 17 October, Aktuaalne kaamera reported that the country is considering the establishment of one nuclear power plant by 2035. A government working group on the same issue released a report which analyses 19 issues surrounding the introduction of nuclear energy as per the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) guidelines. The report is an in-progress one and is scheduled to be completed in 2024, after which recommendations as per the study will be presented to the Parliament for acceptance. If accepted the nuclear power plant project will cost around EUR two billion, have small modular reactors with a 300 megawatts capacity and will be built by private investors and Fermi Energia. (Thomas Pott, “Estonia could get nuclear power plant by 2035,” news.err.ee, 17 October 2022)
 
FINLAND
President Sauli Niinisto gives a speech at the Rose-Roth Seminar
On 18 October, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto addressed the Rose-Roth Seminar attended by NATO member states, parliamentarians and ally countries held in Helsinki. They discussed on changing security environment in Northern Europe, which included the war in Ukraine and climate change. Niinisto supported Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty and urged China, the US and the EU to help prevent the war from escalating further. He urged the countries present not to force the peace agreement. (“Finnish President addresses Nato parliamentary seminar in Helsinki,” yle.fi, 18 October 2022)

HUNGARY
The Interior Minister points out the drawback of the EU’s migration policy
On 18 October, Interior Ministry’s Parliamentary State Secretary, Bence Retvari spoke about EU member states introducing more border control measures which are detrimental to the EU’s values of “free movement of people, goods, and capital, and thus the EU economy.” He said that Hungary is opposed to the EU’s migration policy as it creates the opportunity for illegal migrants to apply for asylum while being inside the EU as it is difficult to deport these migrants whether they have official documents or not. Revtari also mentioned that action was taken on 15,000 illegal migrants in 2022, of whom 10 per cent are imprisoned on human smuggling charges. He also highlighted that since Hungary was under-construction of a border fence to secure the EU, it proposed to the EU to consider funding half the construction costs. (“Hungary Opposes EU Migration Pact,” Hungary Today, 18 October 2022)

LITHUANIA
Lithuania conducts national cyber security exercise
On 18 October, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) conducted the Cyber Shield exercise in Lithuania. Participants in the exercise are expected to train remotely from their workplaces and will be asked to specify the number of issues that are to be addressed by instructors. In 2022, exercise participants will have to tackle websites, internal servers and remote workplace hackers and phishing. In June, around 100 organizations have taken part in a preparatory event for the exercise, which will also see participation from the Lithuanian Armed Forces and people from the Zemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania, the Core Center of State Telecommunications, and the Information Technology Service under the Ministry of Defence. (“Major national cyber security exercise kicks off,” delfi.lt, 18 October 2022) 

MALTA
Prime Minister hails its economic growth and governmental stability
On 18 October, Malta’s Prime Minister, Robert Abela said that Malta's government provides stability to the state for its economic success. Abela stated how the government brought back stability through subsidies and highlighted the need for digitization, change in tax provisions, and aims to improve the cost-of-living index. He also stated the challenges in terms of the energy crisis, environment, sustainability and the worsening quality of life leading to lesser investments. However, he appreciated the success of FDIs related to science, remote gaming, and communication, which had reached EUR one billion. (Semira Abbas Shalan, “‘Malta’s economic success is due to the stability offered by government’ – PM,” independent.com.mt, 18 October 2022) 

NGOs and charities accuse Malta of ill-treatment of migrants, maritime and international laws violation
On 18 October, Malta Today reported that international NGOs like Alarm Phone, Mediterranea Saving Humans, Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) and Sea-Watch were accusing Maltese armed forces of sending migrants on a boat to Egypt in September. Malta’s Rescue Coordination Centre is said to have issued the order to send the 23 migrants to Egypt instead of the nearest port of call to provide humanitarian assistance. The international organizations claim that the migrants had already been at sea for quite a few days when they were rescued and thus were suffering from poor health and dwindling resources. Unnecessary delays and unclear guidance of Malta’s part also exacerbated the risks faced by these people. The NGOs have jointly released a statement, which says: “As organisations engaging in SAR activities at sea, we denounce the forcible transfer of these 23 people to Egypt and call for consequences to Malta’s blatant violations of maritime and international law.” (Matthew Vella, “Malta sends rescued boat migrants to Egypt despite nearest port of call,”  Malta News, 18 October 2022) 

MOLDOVA
Germany to supply air-defence system to Moldova
On 18 October, Moldova’s Defence Minister, Anatolie Nosatii said that the country is considering the acquisition of air defence system components and military drones from Germany in 2023. However, even though Moldova’s defence budget is higher than last year’s allocation, it still is not enough to afford an anti-aircraft defence system. In 2022, the defence budget for Moldova was 0.3 per cent of its projected GDP, while in 2023, 0.5 per cent of the GDP has been allocated for defence. Thus, Nosatii asked for the international community’s assistance with Moldova’s defence project and said: “Previously, all the purchases were made in a short term and in a very small volume, and there was no talk of missiles or planes. In this sense, without assistance from foreign partners, it will be difficult to obtain this kind of capability."

NORWAY
The Food Centre gets funds from Oslo municipality after government cuts
On 18 October, Oslo municipality pledged funds of NOK 150,000 to the Food Centre in 2023 after the government cut its budget. The government supported the Food Centre with NOK 7.8 million in 2021. However, it plans to decrease the budget for the association by NOK 600,000 in 2023. The Food Centre facilitates the redistribution of surplus food from the industries to NGOs that are then supplied to the underprivileged. Oslo municipality is keen to maintain the operation of the Food Centre in the future. (“Oslo municipality gives money to the Food Centre,” aftenposten.no, 18 October 2022)

SLOVENIA
Slovenia on the road to get a first female head of the state
On 17 October, EURACTIV reported on pre-election polls in Slovenia. The country will be voting in the presidential election on 23 October, and polls say that no candidate is likely to win more than 50 per cent seats. Thus, a run-off between the top two candidates is also expected to be held on 13 November. Centre-right to right-wing candidate Anže Logar of Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS-EPP) is leading the polls with 30 per cent of voters and his followed closely by Nataša Pirc Musar, an independent candidate, supported by Slovenian Pirate Party and SMS (European Greens) with 27 per cent. Even though the President in Slovenia only has limited powers, if elected Musar will become the country’s first female head of the state. (Tobias Gerhard Schminke, “Slovenia’s presidential elections could return first female head of state,” EURACTIV, 17 October 2022)
 
SWEDEN
The new government replaces Environment Ministry with Climate and Business Ministry 
On 18 October, Sweden’s new government scraped the environment ministry and created a Climate and Business ministry. Climate and Environment will be headed by the country’s youngest-ever Minister, Romina Pourmokhtari. Sweden’s new Minister of Energy, business and industry, Ebba Busch, is assigned to be the supervisor of Pourmokhtari stating that changing industries and the transport sector will solve the climate issue. The Green party and the left are against abolishing the ministry established in 1987.  The department was not mentioned in Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s speech. The reason that they gave was that business and the environment go hand in hand. The solution that the government has come up with is nuclear energy, although it might not sustain short-term and medium-term needs. The country currently stands with no environmental policies and no power. (“Sweden’s new government to abolish stand-alone Environment Ministry,” The Local se, 18 October 2022)

TURKEY
Turkey’s Central Bank initiates measure to reinforce Lira deposits
On 18 October, Turkey’s Central Bank laid fresh steps to enhance lira deposits, increasing the ratio of bonds that banks compulsorily hold for foreign exchange deposits and requiring deposits which are less than 50 per cent to acquire more from next year. Raising the securities maintenance ratio required for forex deposits from three per cent to five per cent, the bank's “liraization strategy” is a part of its 2023 agenda to assist an unorthodox policy of interest cuts in the midst of staggering inflation. Requiring lenders to hold an additional 80-100 billion lira of bonds, the individuals now hold 46 per cent deposits, with Turkey snapping up dollars to protect itself against deep currency depreciations and exhaustive inflation of 83 per cent in the previous month. By 2023, banks will be holding securities-based lira-deposit share targets with the lira shedding 29 per cent versus the dollar this year. (Nevzat Devranoglu, “Turkish central bank takes another step to boost lira deposits,” Reuters, 18 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Second compromise on Chips Act circulated by Czech Republic’s EU Presidency
On 18 October, EURACTIV reported that the EU Council under Czech Republic’s presidency circulated the second draft of the Chips Act. The Act is intended to assist the EU in maintaining smooth supply chains for semiconductors, and other electronic components. The new compromise text, which comes with several changes, focuses on several outstanding issues and is slated to be discussed by the Council on 19 October. As per the new text, a European Chips Infrastructure Consortium will be set up to facilitate the coordination of funding along with cutting-edge fabrication plants. Moreover, the European Commission will monitor potential crises and trigger emergency status in consultation with the European Semiconductor Board if required. (Luca Bertuzzi, “Czech Presidency tries to close in on the Chips Act,” EURACTIV, 18 October 2022)

MEPs urge for faster Schengen accession for Romania and Bulgaria
On 18 October, the members of the European Parliament passed a resolution urging the European Council and the Schengen member states to consider their decision for Romani and Bulgaria’s accession to the Schengen free movement area. The MEPs said that the creation of the Schengen area was one of the EU’s “greatest achievements” and given that Romania and Bulgaria fulfilled the necessary conditions long ago, the Council should seriously consider the status of their membership. Last week, several Schengen member states sent inspectors to Bulgaria and Romania to ascertain their progress and the results of the inspection are expected to be released on 26 October. On this issue, the Czech Presidency has said that they are pushing for a vote on the membership bids at the EU Home Ministers’ meeting in December and the subsequent EU Summit. As Croatia is on its way to joining the Schengen zone, the only EU member states not a part of it are Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus and Ireland. (“End ‘discrimination’ and admit Bulgaria and Romania to Schengen, MEPs demand,” EURACTIV, 18 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 237
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 18 October, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported on the casualties of the Russian attacks on Kyiv, where three people who worked at the energy facility were killed. The attack was launched by Russia targeting the power supply facility.
 
On 18 October, the Ukrainian government issued a nationwide warning regarding outages of water, electricity and food. This came after the Russians launched attacks on key energy infrastructure in the regions of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Dnipro and Zhytomyr resulting in blackouts except for Mykolaiv, the other regions face power outages. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a tweet said that “Since October 10, 30 per cent of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country.” These blackouts have forced hospitals to run on backup generators and the supply of drinking was halted. DETK the energy company told the press that they are “..doing their best to restore electricity supply after the destruction of a critical infrastructure facility in Kyiv city.”

On 18 October, Ukraine’s Air Force Command gave an update regarding the counterstrike on Russian ariel attacks. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reportedly shot down a SU-25, six Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, a Kh-101/X-555 cruise missile and five Kalibr cruise missiles. This was carried out by the Air Command of South and the Air Command of East of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

On 18 October, the National Resistance Center with Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces accused Iran of helping Russia launch drones which hit key energy infrastructure in Ukraine. According to the National Resistance Center, Russia is launching kamikaze drones from the regions of Kherson and Crimea. In these bases around 20 Iranian instructors were spotted by the Ukrainian Guerrilla assets who are said to have delivered the drones to the Russians. 
 
On the same day, the SBU Security Service of Ukraine released reports about how Russia is using convicts as cannon fodder and putting them on the frontlines to survey the land. Talking about an interrogation with a Russian Prisoners of war (POW) who is one such convict, the SBU tells us how the convict has only been fighting for two days. They are recruited by promising that their criminal records will be wiped out and that they will fight alongside the soldiers. Promises were made that they would be trained by the military but would not be sent to the front lines of the war. According to the convict, this was not the case as they were often sent as scouts and headfirst into Ukrainian territory.   
 
On 18 October, Zelenskyy in a video address ensured Ukrainians that all PoWs will return home. This comes as 108 women POWs were brought back home after a successful exchange. This was an all-women POW exchange and ensured that many such would follow. He thanked the exchange team and all those who donated to the exchange fund which will make sure that enemy soldiers are captured. This will help by acting as leverage and ensuring the return of all Ukrainian POWs.  

On 17 October, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported that five ships have left from the Odesa port. Carrying 122,300 tons of agricultural goods, the ships have left to Africa, Asia and Europe as a part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 October, TASS reported that the death toll due to the Su-34 accident in Yesek had risen to 14. The accident occurred on 17 October when a Su-34 crashed into a residential building when one of its engines caught fire. An investigation is on and for now, the accident is classified under breach of flight rules and flight preparations. The pilots and the tarmac staff are being questioned regarding the same.
 
On the same day, the city administration of Novaya Kakhovka located in the Kherson region reported fatalities due to Ukrainian armed forces’ continued shelling. The authorities reported that two people were killed and one wounded when a rocket hit the Energy Stadium. A transformer was also hit at the same time leading to an oil leak.    
 
On 18 October, the Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev talked about how the sanctions placed by the EU are backfiring. In an interview with Tass, Nechaev talked about how with each new set of sanctions people of the allied countries are facing a greater risk of increase in fuel prices, cost of living crisis and inflation. Nechaev said that "the facts show that the European Union continues experiments on the population of its own member countries."
 
On 18 October, Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov briefed the press about the Russian Armed Force’s precision attacks in Ukraine. According to him, the strikes hit all the designated military commands, energy infrastructure and foreign weapons stock. He also reported that the forces were able to stop the Ukrainian army from crossing the Zherebets River in the Krasny Liman area. They were also able to stop Ukranian forces from breaking the defence line in Bruskinskoye in the Kherson region.
 
On 18 October, a programme was launched in the Zaporizhzhia region which looked at flashing Ukrainian drones. Launched by the “We are together with Russia” movement it was proposed to the Russian Army who accepted it. The leader of the movement said that the drones “…will no longer be harmful, but for the benefit of us to work, that is, these drones will fly back, in that direction.” 
 
On 18 October, Lenta.ru interviewed political analyst Alexander Asafov who said that Estonia’s decision to classify Russia as a sponsor of terrorism is meaningless. According to him such classifications are a part of US Law and have no legal consequences outside of it. The Estonian parliament took this move in light of the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories. Asafov said that this move by Estonia and other Baltic nations will just push the US government to do the same. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 October, EU member states expressed support to impose fresh sanctions on Iran for its military aid to Russia in the Ukraine war, upon evidence. Ukrainian officials have claimed that Russia’s usage of Iranian drones has increased in recent weeks, alleging links to the Shahed 136 ‘kamikaze’ drones as well. EU has said that they are “following very closely” and that with evidence, they will react accordingly. The EU leaders meeting later are expected to agree on steps to counter the development, where sanctions on Iran would not only lead to blacklisting individuals but could move further if their involvement is proven.
 
On 18 October, the Chief of Germany’s national cybersecurity agency has been dismissed upon possible links to Russian intelligence. The Interior Ministry said that the Head of the Agency was accused to have damaged the “necessary confidence” of the public. Arne Schoenbohm, the founder of a cybersecurity group, when a Russian intelligence agent was found to be a member, led to the dismissal and questioned the integrity of the cyber management. Authorities said that preliminary investigations and allegations would be evaluated thoroughly and that the head had no “feedback” on the claims.

On 18 October, the EU leaders plan to stabilise runaway energy prices and short supplies and to resist their economies from falling and aggravating unrest. While trying to keep the 27 members of the EU together in their opposition towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. The EU’s executive commission is extending a blueprint that would accommodate the gap between proponents and opponents of the gas price cap.
 
On 18 October, Greece received the first batch of infantry fighting vehicles known as “Marder” from Germany as a part of a swap deal, in return for 40 Soviet-designed tanks to Ukraine. Delivering six of the 40 armoured vehicles, Germany is set to receive 14 more by 21 October. The arms deal swap is helpful to Greece in terms of recognising the equipment and would lead to the modernisation of the Greek military. Germany confirmed that the tanks would not be stationed in the Greek Islands to cite violence, but is running a bid to help Greece establish a more progressive military establishment.
 
On 18 October, the Association of National Olympic Committees (ANOC) Executive Council announced that Russia and Belarus can participate in the ANOC General Assembly. The Council said that as the two nations are still a part of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) NOCs they are eligible to attend the General Assembly. The IOC has only barred the athletes from the two countries but has not removed or sanctioned the officials of Russia and Belarus. Following this announcement, Latvia Olympic Committee said that they would not be participating if the officials from the two countries attended. This was followed by NOCs of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Norway and Sweden writing a letter to the ANOC asking them to re-evaluate the presence of Russia and Belarus in the General Assembly.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 October, Reuters reported on Iran’s consent to supply Russia with surface-to-surface missiles and more drones. The information was traced from two senior Iranian officials and diplomats who said that an agreement was signed between the two countries on 06 October. The armaments include the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles and the Shahed-136 missiles. When the diplomat was asked about the allegations of the West regarding a breach of the 2015 UN agreement the diplomat denied it. it is not the seller’s issue on where it is being used and asserted that they do not take sides and want the conflict to end through diplomatic means. 

On the same day, Reuters also reported about the growing voices of Central Asia against Russia. This was seen in a recent summit in Khazaksitan where Putin was subject to a critical speech by Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmon who demanded respect for the nation. According to political analyst Rustam Burnahsev, the Central Asian countries are looking to have an equal partnership with Russia and urged Russia to give up its ‘older brother’ role. This was seen when a meeting between the Leaders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan mediated by Putin to resolve a border dispute between the two was unsuccessful. Similarly, the Khazakstan President did not have a bilateral meeting with Putin despite the summit being hosted by Kazakhstan. 

References
Ukraine Warns Situation “Сritical” after Russia Attacks Power Grid,” Kyiv Post, 18 October 2022 
Death toll in Russia’s attack on critical infrastructure in Kyiv rises to three,” Ukrinform, 18 October 2022 
Ukraine’s Air Force shoots down enemy Su-25, five missiles and six drones,” Ukrinform, 18 October 2022
Iranian instructors help Russians launch kamikaze drones from Crimea, Kherson region,” Ukrinform, 18 October 2022
All Ukrainian POWs to be returned from Russian captivity - Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 18 October 2022 
Russian commanders use convicts to reconnoiter Ukrainian positions on front lines - SBU,” Ukrinform, 18 October 2022
Death toll of Su-34 plane crash in residential area in Yeysk grows to 14 — dispatch,” TASS, 18 October 2022   
Each package of sanctions against Russia ‘boomerangs‘, says ambassador,” TASS, 18 October 2022
Two killed, one wounded in Ukrainian rocket attack on Novaya Kakhovka,” TASS, 18 October 2022
Russian forces strike energy sites, foreign weapons arsenals in Ukraine operation,” TASS, 18 October 2022
Zaporozhye came up with a program for flashing Ukrainian drones,” LENTA.RU, 18 October 2022
Estonia's decision to recognize Russia as a sponsor of terrorism was called meaningless,”, LENTA.RU, 18 October 2022
German cybersecurity chief out amid reports of Russia ties,” AP News, 18 October 2022
EU faces battle to keep energy prices from tanking economy,” AP News, 18 October 2022
Germany sends Greece first tank batch from Ukraine swap deal,” EURACTIV, 18 October 2022
EU warns Iran more sanctions likely over alleged drone supplies to Russia,” EURACTIV, 18 October 2022
"Ukraine war: US says Iranian drones breach sanctions,” BBC, 18 October 2022
Iran agrees to ship missiles, more drones to Russia,” Reuters, 18 October 2022
Russia, Belarus allowed to attend ANOC General Assembly,” Reuters, 18 October 2022
'We want respect': Putin's authority tested in Central Asia,” Reuters, 18 October 2022  
Israel Rejects Request for Call Between Gantz and Ukraine's Defense Minister,” Haaretz, 18 October 2022
5 More Vessels Depart From Ukrainian Ports Through Grain Corridor,” Kyiv Post, 18 October 2022


18 October 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #335

War in Ukraine: Day 236 | UK trains the Ukrainians from different backgrounds to resist invasion

Ulf Kristersson appointed as Sweden's next Prime Minister; Jeremy Hunt abandons Liz Truss' mini-budget; ASEAN and the EU sign first-ever bloc to bloc air transport agreement

Photo : UK Military of Defence/Twitter


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

ESTONIA
Estonia joins NATO-level European air defence system
On 17 October, Estonia’s Defence Minister, Hanno Pevkur, in an interview with ERR said that Estonia had joined the European air defence system created by Germany, which would protect Estonia from ballistic missiles in future. The European states are working together to integrate air defence systems, which consists of only 15 members. Germany, which is promoting the NATO-level defence agreement aims for joint tender or integration to convince the 15 member states agree to a common interest. The initiative will integrate Estonia’s upcoming medium-range capability and Estonia’s short-range capability that it shares with Poland. (“Defense minister: European air defense initiative could benefit Estonia,” news.err.ee, 17 October 2022)

SWEDEN
Kristersson becomes Sweden’s new Prime Minister
On 17 October, the conservative Swedish Moderate Party’s leader, Ulf Kristersson, was elected as Sweden’s Prime Minister with the support of the far-right Sweden Democrats. He will form a minor coalition government with the Christian Democrats and Liberals. Out of 349 parliamentarians, 176 voted in favour of Kristersson becoming the new Prime Minister, meanwhile 173 voted against him. With the help of Sweden Democrats, the right-wing coalition has presented their plan for their governance ahead. The plan includes raising police funding, building new nuclear reactors and stricter immigration policies. Restricting immigration laws and benefits and deportation of non-integrated immigrants are also included. The far-right Sweden Democrats will not be a part of the government but will remain to back the coalition. (“Sweden: Lawmakers elect Ulf Kristersson as prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2022)

THE UK
Liz Truss faces criticism over Jeremy Hunt reversing the mini-budget
On 17 October, the UK’s Chancellor of Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, discarded Prime Minister Liz Truss’ “mini” budget. Truss recently removed former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for failing to keep the UK’s economy from sinking. After replacing Kwarteng, Hunt said he would discard the Truss’ tax cut package. He gave the reason that it would cause more debts to the government and would not elevate the country's overall economy. He promised to make a plan to cut the UK’s national debt in his fiscal statement on 31 October. Truss was not seen at the House of Commons, however, she sent Penny Mordaunt in her place to address the economic fallout of her abandoned mini-budget. Several Conservative MPs request Truss to step down from Office due to her worsening already bad economy. (“Liz Truss news – live: PM cannot survive any more mistakes, minister warns,” Independent, 17 and 18 October 2022

Louise Casey reports on getting away of police officers with no charge
On 17 October, a report by a former government official, Louise Casey, on London’s Metropolitan Police Force suggested that many officers do not face any charges after committing crimes. The police force was noted to have been filled with law-breaking, racist and misogynistic officers. The officers had been escaping punishments and getting away with their criminal behaviour. Law enforcement is especially tough on Black or Asian officers than caucasian ones, which makes the racial disparity seen within the force. The police were criticized for their handling of police-involved crimes. London Police Chief, Cressida Dick, resigned after being found incompetent in leading law enforcement the right way and garnering public support from London Mayor Sadiq Khan. Sir Mark Rowley replaced Dick and brought new rules to set things straight in the police force. He said, “The public deserves a better Met, and so do our good people who strive every day to make a positive difference to Londoners.” He has plans to remove corrupt and crime-committing police officers from the force. (Jill Lawless, “Scathing report says UK police getting away with lawbreaking,” apnews, 17 October 2022)

GENDER
New rule on balanced gender representation on company boards to be adopted by the EU
On 17 October, the European Council approved the rules to promote gender representation balance on company boards. It gave the EU the green light to proceed with the rules. The rule states that 40 per cent of the non-executive director positions in a listed company should be given to members of the underrepresented gender by 2026. If the member state applies the new rule to executive and non-executive directors, 33 per cent of all positions should be held by the underrepresented sex by 2026. According to the rule, those firms that do not follow gender equality should change their selection process. The selection process should be fair, unbiased and transparent. When there are equally qualified candidates for the same position, the underrepresented gender should be given preference. A member state close to accomplishing the gender balance goals or having similar rules does not have to make the companies change their appointment or selection process. Every year member states should publish the list of firms that achieved balanced gender representation on their company board. (“Council approves EU law to improve gender balance on company boards,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022)
 
REGIONAL
EU sets 2023 catch limits in the Baltic Sea
On 17 October, the EU’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council came to a political conclusion on the total allowable catches (TACs) and quotas for fish stocks in the Baltic Sea in 2023. Based on the advice of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) the council set limits for fishing vessels working in the region. The agreements outlined largely include a decrease in the quantity of fish that can be caught except for Central Baltic herring and plaice whose population has increased. This is also in line with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy. (“Baltic Sea: Council agrees catch limits for 2023,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Germany imposes EUR five million on Telegram over illegal content reporting practise 
On 17 October, the Telegram app was fined by Germany due to not establishing a legal way to report illegal content or naming an institution in Germany to regulate the messages. Failing to comply with German digital law, Telegram was fined EUR 5.125 million. Germany has attempted to sue the Dubai-based company multiple times but failed. However, this time, the Federal Office of Justice has staunchly stood by its decision to fine the messaging app. According to German federal police, Telegram lacks screening of messaging contents and is becoming a tool for radicalization. (“Germany slaps messaging app Telegram with $5 million fine,” apnews, 17 October 2022)
 
ASEAN and the EU sign the Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement
On 17 October, the EU and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed the Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement between member states of both organization at the 28th ASEAN Transport Ministers’ Meeting in Bali, Indonesia. The ASEAN_EU CATA marks the first bloc-to-bloc air transport agreement. The agreement will help fasten the recovery of air connectivity between two parts of the earth after the COVID-19 pandemic. Each country of a bloc can travel up to 14 weekly passenger services within a week to countries in the other bloc. The ASEAN-EU CATA also strengthens cooperation and relations between the two blocs, especially in aviation safety, air traffic management, consumer protection, and environmental and social matters. It also brings a single set of rules instead of multiple ones and helps to rejuvenate the global economy. (“ASEAN and the EU sign the world’s first bloc-to-bloc Air Transport Agreement - joint press release,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022)
 
SPACE
UK Space Agency allocates fund for satellite communications
On 17 October, UK’s Science Minister Nusrat Ghani announced a new fund for businesses to transform satellite communications technology. The total amount of the fund is GBP 15 million which will help ideas and innovations presented by various businesses to transform satellite communications. This is a part of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Advance Research in Telecommunications Services (ARTES) programme. This programme is important for the growth of the UK Space Agency and a recent report published by the ESA highlights how for every GBP 01 invested the UK economy sees a return of GBP 11.80. (“£15 million investment in satellite communications from UK Space Agency,” gov.uk, 17 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 236
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 17 October, Kyiv Post reported on Russian attacks on Ukraine with Iran-manufactured kamikaze drones, hitting homes, businesses, and national power grid infrastructure in Kyiv. The strikes caused a series of fires and firefighters were deployed to rescue victims. On the same, Ukrinform reported on death of a woman as a result of a building collapse. 

On 17 October, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal briefed the public on Russian strikes on important energy infrastructure. Shmyhal posted in Telegram that the strikes happened in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy. Majority of houses in these regions were observed to be out of power. The Prime Minister urged the people in these regions to moderately consume electricity especially in the peak hours and follow the anti-response plan introduced in each region. Ukrainian air force released a report which outlines the number of Russian drones destroyed since 16 October. As per the report 37 out of 43 drones sent by Russia were destroyed.

On 16 October, President Zelenskyy commemorated the World Food Day by appreciating the Black Sea Grain Initiative and thanked it’s the collaborators, the UN and President Erdogan of turkey for facilitating the supply of Ukraine’s grains to the global market. He said that in the coming days, Ukraine will aim to expand the export further. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 17 October, a draft bill titled “A Just Russia - Patriots - For Truth,” was submitted to the lower house of the parliament. The bill deals with the abolition of the deferment from conscription for senators of the Federation Council and deputies of the State Duma. The document also outlines the categories of citizens, who would be called up first for conscription. The list includes the members of the Russian Guard, the SVR, the FSB, the military prosecutor's office, the Investigative Committee, military units of the federal fire service, rescue military formations and those people retired military servicemen who are part of the Armed Forces reserve.  
 
On the issue of conscription, the Mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin said that the mobilization of soldiers, had been completed in Moscow. Sobyanin expressed his gratitude and appreciation to the volunteers and those mobilized. Though he did not clarify on the nature of welfare measures, he assured the safety of the family members of the volunteers involved in helping the Ministry of Defence. 
 
On 16 October, Russia’s presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov alleged NATO had “de facto become involved in the Ukraine conflict.” He stated that even though NATO’s involvement makes Russia’s task in Ukraine harder, it would not affect Russia’s military goals in Ukraine. Peskov mentioned that Russia’s military potential was sufficient to continue its “special military operation” and that “internal mobilization in the field of economy and other spheres,” would ensure Russia’s success in the long term.
 
On the same day, Gazprom CEO, Alexey Miller referred to the possibility of setting up a gas hub in Turkey as indicated earlier by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. He said that redirecting gas supplies stopped due to the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines through a Turkish hub would be possible. Miller said that the groundwork for the route was already completed for the South Stream pipeline project, which was replaced by the TurkStream. On 15 October, the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Mikhail Delyagin said that Turkey would have to cease the supply of Bayraktars and weapons to Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 October, the UK intelligence released a video on how the Ukrainians from different background such as taxi drivers, students, and chefs are being trained from “weapon handling, urban warfare, trench warfare, importance of armed conflict, battlefield first aid, and drills needed to face the frontline.” The intelligence also reported on how Russian forces have been challenged with logistical issues in Kherson from the Kerch Bridge attack. It observed that with difficulty in Kherson, supply narrowed in Crimea, the Zaporizhzhia was becoming a important area to sustain Russian occupation.
 
On 17 October, the Foreign Ministers of the EU member states met in Luxembourg announced the launch of the Ukraine soldier training mission and financial aid to Ukraine. The budget to the training mission was EUR 105 million by the EU, which will include training of 15000 Ukraine soldiers for a two-year term. The Ministers also discussed on the claims against Iran supplying drones to Russia and are expected to impose measure if the claim is proved.
 
On the same issue, the European Council adopted measures to assist Ukraine under the European Peace Facility to support Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The sixth set of aid to be given to Ukraine under the European Peace Facility (EPF) is worth EUR 500 million and will bring the total EU contribution to EUR 3.1 billion. Of the EUR 500 million, 10 million will be to cover equipment like first aid kits, personal protective equipment, and fuel while the remaining will be for weapons and ammunition.
 
On 16 October, Foreign Ministries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania issued a joint statement to the EU to assist Ukraine in setting up a special Tribunal. The tribunal will be tasked with trying the “crimes of aggression” and “ensure Russia’s accountability for its aggression against Ukraine.” They said that Russia’s actions like targeting civilian infrastructure are threatening the rule-based international order and the special tribunal would complement the International Court of Justice’s efforts to bring Russia’s military and political leadership to trial for their actions.
 
On the same day, the Wall Street Journal released a report on economists from University of Michigan, Jefferies LLC, KPMG and other firms predict a recession for the US, since it is facing high inflation, job losses, and the contraction of the economy, which might slip into recession in the upcoming months. In July, a similar survey estimated the probability of recession at 49 per cent, but the recent survey estimated that there was an increased chance of 63 per cent. In the first quarter of 2023, economists are expecting the GDP of the US to shrink at 0.2 per cent annual rate and at 0.1 per cent in the second quarter. This is in contrast to the July forecast of 0.8 percent and one per cent growth in the first and second quarters respectively. 58.9 per cent of the economists taking part in the survey said that Federal Reserves will raise interest too to help ease the inflation, causing further weakening of the economy. Unemployment rates are expected to rise from 3.5 per cent in September to 4.3 per cent in June 2023. However, economists are of the opinion that a recession if it occurs will be a shorter one of about eight months, than the post-war average of 10.2 months.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 17 October, South China Morning Post reported that Chinese nationals residing in Ukraine were signing up for evacuation, on continuing attacks. On 15 October, China's Foreign Ministry urged its people to leave Ukraine, following which the embassy released registration forms on its WeChat account for all nationals to avail necessary assistance to lexit. So far, 186 people have registered for organized evacuation.
 
In the China's National Development and Reform Commission, directed PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. to stop selling gas to Europe and Asia and instead use it for their domestic use.
 
On 16 October, to commemorate the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, UNICEF published a study on the impact of the war in Ukraine on poverty in children. The study says that the war has pushed four million children across Eastern Europe into poverty, marking a 19 per cent increase since 2021. The study which considers data across 22 countries in the region shows that children account for 40 per cent of the total 10.4 million people that have slipped into poverty in 2022. Apart from bad quality of life due to dire financial distress, child poverty also led to increased infant mortality and school dropouts. UNICEF Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia Afshan Khan said: “Children all over the region are being swept up in this war’s terrible wake. If we don’t support these children and families now, the steep rise in child poverty will almost certainly result in lost lives, lost learning, and lost futures.”

References
Stefan Korshak, “Russia Attacks Ukraine with New Wave of Kamikaze Drones – Homes and Power Grid Hit,” Kyiv Post, 17 October 2022
Russians strike critical infrastructure in three regions – Shmyhal,” Ukrinform, 17 October 2022
Ukraine’s Air Force destroys 37 Shahed drones out of 43 launched by Russia Monday,” Ukrinform, 17 October 2022
Anyone who captures Russian soldiers provides an opportunity to release our heroes - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 16 October 2022
Partial mobilization completed in Moscow,” LENTA.RU, 17 October 2022
The bill on the abolition of reservations from the mobilization of deputies was submitted to the State Duma,”  LENTA.RU, 17 October 2022
Turkish hub could replace Nord Stream – Gazprom,” RT, 17 October 2022
NATO 'de-facto involved' in Ukraine conflict – Kremlin,” RT, 16 October 2022
Ekaterina Serovikova and Nazar Kapustin, “The State Duma set a condition for a gas hub in Turkey,” URA.RU, 15 October 2022
Ukraine: Council agrees on further support under the European Peace Facility,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022
EU ministers to discuss war developments, approve sanctions against Iran,” Ukrinform, 17 October 2022
Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros, “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year,” Wall Street Journal, 16 October 2022
"Ukrainians from all walks of life are currently being trained across the UK to help them resist the invasion of their country," UK Ministry of Defence, Twitter, 17 October 2022
The ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania call to establish a Special Tribunal to investigate the crime of Russia's aggression,” urm.lt, 16 October 2022
Child poverty across eastern Europe and Central Asia soars by 19 per cent, as Ukraine war and rising inflation drive four million children into poverty – UNICEF unicef.org, 16 October 2022
China Halts LNG Sales to Foreign Buyers to Ensure Own Supply,” Bloomberg, 17 October 2022
Kawala Xie, “Hundreds of Chinese citizens plan to evacuate Ukraine as war escalates,” scmp, 17 October 2022

 

      


17 October 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #334

War in Ukraine: Day 234 & 235 | US continues to boost defence of NATO's eastern flank

High cost-of-living protests in France; The EU approves Cyprus-Greece undersea power cable; NATO begins aircraft exercise

Photo : Alfredas Pliadis/kam.lt


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
Fresh protests on rising living costs
On 16 October, thousands of protestors assembled at the Place de la Nation to protest against the rising living costs. These protests come amidst an already tense political atmosphere in France due to strikes by workers at oil refineries and nuclear plants. Other than tackling the cost of living crisis, another demand from the protestors was the reduction of pension age from 62 to 60. Even though the left-wing alliance in France known as the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (NUPES), comprising of France Unbowed (LFI), France's Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party did not officially join the protests, many top members from the alliance were seen in the protest. LFI’s former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon who participated in the protests said that the gathering marked the first phase of a cycle of protests. He also hinted at fresh strikes from 18 October, where teachers’ unions, employees in the energy sector, the railroad company SNCF’s employees as workers at Paris’s metro company RATP are expected to participate. (Lisa Louis, “France: Is the cost of living protest movement about to erupt?,” Deutsche Welle, 16 October 2022) 

HUNGARY
Zsigmond’s criticizes PACE for differed stance on migrants
On 14 October, Hungary Today reported on Hungary’s representative to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, (PACE) Barna Pál Zsigmond’s accusation against the Council for supporting those migrants who did not have right to stay in Europe. He criticised the Council’s resolution on calling for facilitation of migration, for not recommending border protection mechanisms and also prohibiting the repatriation of people whom does not have documentation to stay in Europe. He also alleged that this disparity between the Council and Hungary’s official positions was resulting in the EU stigmatizing Hungary. (“Council of Europe Accused of Supporting Illegal Migration,” Hungary Today, 14 October 2022)

IRELAND
High-profile trial to be held over murder of Byrne
On 16 October, The Guardian reported on the impending trial of Gerry “the Monk” Hutch in Ireland. A special criminal court will be trying Hutch and the workings of his cartel, after he orchestrated the murder of David Byrne, a member of the Kinahan cartel in 2016. This attack was allegedly in response to the murder of Hutch’s nephew by members of the Kinahan cartel in 2015. Byrne’s murder triggered a massive and lethal feud between the rival gangs, resulting in 18 deaths between 2015 and 2018. However, Hutch has denied the murder charge. The case, which is expected to run for months, will bestow a life sentence on Hutch, if found guilty. Police protection and security has been increased manifold at the court, where the trial is set to be conducted. (Rory Carroll, “Ireland’s gangland trial of century set to begin in Dublin,” The Guardian, 16 October 2022)

SCOTLAND
England’s charity reports Salmon farming practices far below required stipulations
On 17 October, The Guardian published an article on a study by WildFish that alleged that salmon farms in Scotland were not adhering to required safety and health standards. As per the investigation, conducted through open data, salmon farms are allegedly covering up evidences of environmental harm and presence of sea lice and other parasitic infestations in the fish. WildFish says that in some cases, the infections are 20 times the industry’s prescribed limits. Terming the practice as an “antithesis of ethical farming,” investigators identified loopholes like harvesting that farms are using to avoid providing mandatory sea lice counts to marine Scotland. The report also says that the mortality rates for farmed salmons in marine cages have also risen due to the poor standard of farming. Thus, on an average 24.1 per cent of the salmon stocked in Scottish marine farms are dying before harvest. (Sandra Laville, “Scottish farmed salmon industry using loopholes to cover up harm, report alleges,” The Guardian, 17 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Cyprus gets EU approval for undersea power cable with Greece
On 15 October, Euractiv reported on Cyprus’s collaboration with the EU, on the newly launched project to link the island with an undersea power cable. The EU has approved EUR 757 million in funding to Cyprus for the 1,200-kilometre cable connecting the island to Greece. This cable will end Cyprus’s energy isolation. According to EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, the project has been fast-tracked due to the rising energy crisis and cost catalysed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and will help Europe in diversifying its energy sources further. The cable, which Cyprus’s president Nicos Anastasiades hailed as “historic,” will have a capacity of 1,000 megawatts, expandable to 2,000 megawatts. Its construction is scheduled to begin in 2022, and the project is expected to be completed by 2027. ("Cyprus, EU launch project to link island to European electricity grid," Euractiv, 15 October 2022)

NATO Military Committee Chair attends Arctic Circle Assembly
On 14 October, the Arctic Circle Assembly was held in Iceland. The NATO Military Committee Chair, Admiral Bauer discussed the importance of the Arctic to North America and Europe. He added that the Arctic is pivotal for global security and should remain free and open. After Finland and Sweden become NATO members, seven out of eight countries in the Arctic Council will be an ally of NATO. (“Chair of the NATO Military Committee highlights strategic importance of the Arctic,” nato.int, 16 October 2022)
 
NATO to conduct aircraft “Steadfast Noon” exercise from 17 October
On 14 October, NATO reported that it would begin the “Steadfast Noon” exercise involving 14 countries. The exercise involves fourth and fifth-generation fighter jets, surveillance, tanker aircraft and other types of 60 aircraft. No live weapons were used for the training, which takes place in Belgium, the North Sea and the UK. The training exercises are conducted annually with different states hosting every year to ensure that NATO’s nuclear deterrent remains safe and secure. The alliance's main goal is to maintain peace, prevent coercion, stop aggression and create a safer world. The exercise will start on 17 October and will continue till 30 October. (“NATO’s annual nuclear exercise gets underway,” nato.int, 14 October 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Discovery of 92 migrants under inhuman conditions in Greece initiate UNHCR investigation
The UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) said that the discovery of 92 migrants, under inhuman conditions at the border between Greece and Turkey was “deeply distressing.” While both countries have denied responsibility for the migrants, Greek police who discovered them said that in collaboration with officials from Frontex, it has been found that the migrants crossed the Evros river into Greek territory in rubber dinghies from Turkey. Greek authorites said that the migrants who were discovered naked and with injuries were given clothing, food and first aid. The UNHCR condemned the cruel treatment of the migrants and has called for a full investigation with the hopes of speaking to group soon. In response to the recent flare ups in migrant arrivals, Greek minister for civil protection, Takis Theodorikakos announced that Greece will build a 25-mile fence along its norther border with Turkey. (“UN condemns 'deeply distressing' discovery of 92 naked migrants at Greece-Turkey border,” BBC, 17 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 233
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 15 October, Russia and Ukraine exchanged explosive missiles across the country. Close to 16 explosions near the airport in Belgorod in Russia were witnessed by the locals resulting in a fire at an electrical substation in Belgorod. On the same day, the head of the Komyshuvakha community, Yuriy Karpetian, reported on the Russian shelling of 20 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region with cluster bombs. The bombs were dropped using parachutes which damaged critical infrastructure.
 
On 16 October, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov met with Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar at the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) to discuss the extension of the grain deal. Turkey and Ukraine have now proposed to work on the extension of the grain deal signed on 22 July, which is about to expire in November. Kubrakov stressed increasing the pace of the ship inspection process which will allow a significant rise in grain export to Asia, Africa, and Europe without any queue. According to Kubrakov, the resumption grain corridor has stabilized food prices and in tackling food insecurity.
 
YASNO’s General Director Serhiy Kovalenko, a private energy industry investor in Kyiv, said that the city was safe from electricity cutoff due to the resumption of power supply. The statement comes after Russian soldiers attack one of the energy infrastructure facilities. Ukraine has urged Kyiv’s residents to limit their power consumption and cautioned of emergency blackouts after the Russian missile attack.

On 15 October, Ukraine’s head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, in a meeting with ICRC President, Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, discussed the ways to reach out to the Ukrainian prisoners of war (PoWs) in Olenivka. Yermak requested Egger to send an ICRC team to the prison in Olvenivka to investigate the conditions of the prisoners. Egger responded by agreeing and said that ICRC is waiting to get access to prisoners in Olvenivka penal camp.

On 14 October, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko was elected as the Governor of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund by the Board of Governors for 2023. With the new role, Marchenko will act as chair for next year’s annual meeting of both organizations.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 October, Russia launched a classified satellite named Kosmos-2560 from the Plesetsk Military Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region in the northern part of the country. According to the Defence Ministry, the rocket is a part of the Angara family and has successfully reached the Earth’s orbit. The Angara-1.2 light launch vehicle with the spacecraft was launched successfully. The details and purpose of the satellite are yet to be disclosed by the Ministry.
 
On 15 October, the first batch of Russian soldiers arrived in Belarus under the new deal signed the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Joint Force of Russia and Belarus will be deployed at the borders of Belarus with Ukraine and Lithuania as there were increased NATO activities. According to the Belarusian Defence Ministry, the main purpose of the joint forces was to protect and defend the borders of the Union State, Russia and Belarus. Ukraine and the West’s aggression also resulted in the deployment of the joint troop. The combined force will consist of 1,000 Russians and 70,000 Belarussians to fight against Ukraine in the ongoing special operations.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 October, Lithuania’s Ministry of National Defence announced that the presence of the US Battalion in the country will continue till 2026. Since 2019 the Batallion has been in Lithuania as part of a NATO initiative to secure the Eastern flank of NATO. This announcement comes after the NATO defence ministers meeting in Bucharest. Lithuania will continue to provide the Host Nation Support to the forces as part of NATO requirements.  
 
On 15 October, Elon Musk reassured that SpaceX will support the Starlink internet service in Ukraine. This comes amid the backlash he received on 14 October when he said in a tweet that he could no longer fund the programme as it was proving to be too expensive. Musk has filed a request to the Pentagon for funding which according to a spokesperson is being discussed. Starlink has been a major asset for Ukraine after key communications infrastructure was destroyed by Russian attacks.
 
On 16 October, Latvia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Edgars Rinkēvičs in a tweet said that he would be attending the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg taking place on 17 October. The agenda is expected to be on framing the ninth sanctions package against Russia, to support Ukraine, this will include the seizure of frozen Russian state assets and setting up a special tribunal for the crime of aggression by Russia.  
 
On the same day, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister and Turkish Defense Minister met and discussed the implementation of the Grain Initiative and extending it beyond the initial date of 22 November. This is an initiative that was launched by the UN to transport Ukrainian Grains to the rest of the world. Turkey was the mediator and ensured the safe passage of grains and food products from Ukrainian ports. 
 
On 16 October, Helsingin Sanomat published the results of a survey conducted by them on the views of the Finnish people on a possibility of a nuclear war. The results show that four in ten respondents were concerned that the current crisis in Ukraine will spill over to Finland. The worry about nuclear was mostly seen in female responders and rural responders. The survey also asked if Finland can normalize ties with Russia for which the majority said that it was impossible until Russia’s President Vladimir Putin remains in power. The survey also found that 84 per cent expressed that the nuclear threat would end only with the Russian forces leaving Ukraine and another set of people see arming Ukraine with heavier weapons as a viable option.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 16 October, all the OPEC+ members came together to defend the decision agreed by all members to cut production. This comes after the US accused Saudi Arabia of forcing the members of OPEC+ to agree to the steep cuts. They also accused Saudi Arabia of showing support to Russia as the cuts would boost the price of Russian oil thereby increasing their foreign income. This has been refuted by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz who said that they took this decision keeping the stability and balance of the oil markets in mind. This was supported by fellow OPEC+ members Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Algeria, Iraq, and UAE. The Energy Minister of the UAE also clarified that this was a unanimous decision with no political intentions whatsoever. King Salman in a meeting with the Shura Council called the claims baseless and talked about the Kingdom’s role as a mediator in a Prisoner of War exchange. 
 
On 16 October, Washington Post reported on Iran’s supply of a series of short-range ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in support of the Russian military. Although Iran has denied the claims, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that Iran will not supply any weapon that can be used in the war and that such supplies will only prolong the war. 

References
Ukraine, Türkiye seek to extend Grain Initiative,” Ukrinform, 16 October 2022
Kyiv Stabilizes Power Supplies Following Russian Missile Strikes,” Kyiv Post, 16 October 2022
Yermak and ICRC President Discuss Access to Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka,” Kyiv Post, 16 October 2022
Ukraine’s Finance Minister Elected Governor on Board of World Bank, IMF,” Kyiv Post, 15 October 2022
Explosions heard in Donetsk, local administration building on fire,” Ukrinform, 16 October 2022
Invaders shell Zaporizhzhia region’s community with cluster munitions,” Ukrinform, 16 October 2022
Sixteen explosions ring out near Russia’s Belgorod – StratCom,” Ukrinform, 16 October 2022
Russia to go through with Ukraine operation despite NATO’s involvement - Kremlin,” TASS, 16 October 2022
Russia deploys new military satellite,” RT, 16 October 2022
Oil depot, customs office shelled in Russia – governor,” RT, 15 October 2022
Russian troops arrive in Belarus under new deal,” RT, 15 October 2022
The Ministry of Digital Development has changed the form of deferment from partial mobilization for IT employees,” LENTA RU, 16 October 2022
Ukraine war: Backlash after Elon Musk says he can no longer fund Starlink satellites,” euronews, 15 October 2022 
Musk says SpaceX will keep funding Ukraine Starlink internet," BBC, 15 October 2022   
The U.S. Battalion Lithuania retains persistent rotational presence,” kam.lt, 14 October 2022   
Iran reportedly set to ship ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine,” The Times of Israel, 16 October 2022  
OPEC+ members endorse output cut after U.S. coercion accusation,” Reuters, 17 October 2022    
https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1581575259698102273?s=20&t=h7SqxIB62HiN-YzDrwkjgw,” edgarsrinkevics/Twitter, 16 October 2022 
Ukraine, Türkiye seek to extend Grain Initiative,” Ukrinfom, 16 October 2022   
HS poll: Strong support for arming Ukraine against Russia; concerns about nuclear war,” yle.fi, 16 October 2022


15 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #333

War in Ukraine: Day 233 | Spain, France, and the Netherlands to boost Ukraine's air defence system

Ulf Kristersson signs a coalition deal to form the government; Kwasi Kwarteng removed from his Office; Serbia pressured by the EU on tightening is visa for migrants

Photo : mil.in.ua


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

SWEDEN
The Moderates forms coalition along with the Christian Democrats and the Liberals
On 14 September, the Swedish Moderates leader, Ulf Kristersson, said that his party would form a minor coalition government with the Christian Democrats and the Liberals. He would be the next Prime Minister heading the coalition government if the Swedish Parliament, the Riksdag does not vote against his appointment. The far-right, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are not part of the coalition, however, it said that it will support the government. The Sweden Democrats are the second-largest party elected in the recent election. Even though the current Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson lost by a tiny margin, she remains in Office as a caretaker until the new government is formed. (“Swedish parties agree to form coalition with far-right support,” Deutsche Welle, 14 October 2022)
 
THE UK
Jeremy to replace the current Treasury Chief
On 14 October, Prime Minister Liz Truss announced that Kwasi Kwarteng will be replaced by Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor of the Exchequer. She also said that the reversal of the cut of the intended increase of tax corporations. Truss said that a detailed economic plan with a breakdown by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility on 31 October. This move has been seen by the public and politicians to secure her position amid scepticism in the Conservative party. (“UK’s Truss drops tax cuts, axes Treasury chief amid turmoil”, AP News, 14 October 2022)
 
TECHNOLOGY
EU to fund USD 1.15 billion Fibre Optic Cable connecting Europe and Asia via the arctic
On 14 October, EURACTIV reported that the EU is planning to fund a fibre optic cable project that connects Europe to Asia via the Arctic. The Far North Fibre project was built by an Alaskan Company named Far North Digital and Finland’s Cinia. The length of the cable is 14,000 kilometres connecting Scandinavia and Ireland to Japan passing via Greenland, Canada and Alaska. The project was formed due to failing relations with Russia as the existing optic cable was created in partnership with Russia’s telecom operator MegaFon. Russia responds to the Far North Fibre Project with its own Arctic cable named Polar Express, planned to be launched in 2026. The total estimated cost of the cable is USD 1.15 billion. The project will be the first cable to connect Europe to Asia without passing through Suez Canal. (Luca Bertuzzi, “EU eyes Arctic internet cable to connect Europe to Asia via Alaska,” EURACTIV, 14 October 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Serbia faces increased pressure from the EU and Germany over visa conditions
On 14 October, Germany and EU officials increased pressure on Serbia to tighten its visa conditions for migrants. Serbia has visa-free agreements with India, Tunisia, Syria, Burundi and even the EU. This has led many to travel to the EU illegally through Serbia and stay there without visas. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said that Serbia needs to keep a check on its borders and its visas to be considered to be a part of the EU. She also said that if they don’t the EU will have to take drastic steps and cut Serbia’s visa-free agreement with the EU. Frontex an EU border agency told that over 19,160 migrants have come to the EU illegally through Serbia in 2022 alone. (“Germany, EU pressure Serbia to curb illegal migration”, Deutsche Welle, 14 October 2022
 
Germany and Mongolia to deepen cooperation
On 14 October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene talked to the press about the expansion of relations between the two countries. Discussions between the two included strengthening ties and building partnerships on sharing resources, fighting climate change, and transforming the energy sector. Germany hopes to tap into Mongolia’s inherent wealth of copper, rare earth metals and other such important resources and Mongolia hopes to increase sustainable energy production with the help of Germany. This will be an important step for Germany which is looking to diversify sources to reduce dependency on China and Russia. (“Germany hopes to get key raw materials from Mongolia”, AP News, 14 October 2022)    
 
INTERNTAIONAL
EU and US to increase collaboration on sustainable energy in Africa
On 14 October, the US and EU signed an agreement to boost collaboration on green energy in Sub-Saharan Africa. This includes helping the region get access to affordable modern energy and supporting the energy transition. This will help in the reduction of poverty, increasing inclusiveness, fighting climate change and promoting sustainable economic growth. Speaking on this Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen, said, “Together, we can electrify even more schools and health centres, and fight even more efficiently the inequalities linked to energy poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa.” (“Global Gateway: EU and US boost cooperation on green energy in Africa”, ec.europa.eu, 14 October 2022)
 
IMF opposes EU energy price cap
On 14 October, EURACTIV reported that IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva does not agree with the EU on an energy price cap. Disapproving the price cap idea she said that it has the potential to be unsustainable spending from their treasuries. She instead proposes a constant open channel between central banks and ministers of various countries to come together and tackle the rising inflation. This will also prevent clashes between the monetary and fiscal policies of countries. Georgieva emphasised that it should benefit the most vulnerable and needs to be well-targeted and temporary. (“IMF chief tells EU to drop energy price caps idea”, EURACTIV, 14 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 233
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 14 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed on humanitarian aid. USD 400 million was announced by Saudi Arabia after the call.

On 13 October, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in a Kyiv bomb shelter. They discussed the agency's progress toward establishing a nuclear safety and protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. According to Kuleba, the ZNPP’s nuclear safety lies in quickly withdrawing Russian troops from the region and ending terrorizing the power plant’s Ukrainian employees.

On the same day, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Oleksii Reznikov, tweeted on Spain’s supply of four hawks air defence systems after Ramstein meetings in Brussels. Air defence has become a priority of the war and France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced that he would send radar and air defence systems to Ukraine in the future.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 October, LENTA RU reported on the Vice-President of Russia’s International Affairs Council, Yevgeny Buzhinksy, remarks. According to Buzhinsky, the special operations are expected to last in Ukraine for another six months and will continue until its goals are achieved. He said that Russia’s goals were to reach Odessa, connect with Transnistria, capture the Kharkiv region and completely take control of the Donbas region. The ultimate goal of Russia would be to get rid of the regime in Kyiv.

On 14 October, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in his address stated that the partial mobilization that he had previously decreed was coming to an end in two weeks. He estimated that 222,000 out of 300,000 reservists were called up for military service. He said there would be no more mobilization as it might not be needed. He also added that the database with outdated registration methods was the reason for the mistakes during the military conscription calls. He promised to update the database to a modern basis and improve its quality.

On the same day, during the Central Asia summit, Putin proposed Central Asian countries to agree to Russia’s import substitution programme to build new manufacturing and market chains and grow alternative logistical ties with Central Asian countries. He stated that Russia was open to strengthening its multi-aspect cooperation with Central Asian countries. He claimed “Russia is the leading investor in the economies of Central Asian countries,” and had an increase in trade turnover by 16 per cent in the first half of 2022.

On 14 October, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak spoke at a forum on the world's dependence on fossil fuel energy for at least five more decades. He said that the usage of fossil fuels would continue despite the transition to green energy. The transition has taken a step back due to the energy crisis, but the process is slowly occurring. He added that IAEA and leading scientists had not forecasted anything on the energy balance of the future containing only clean energy. He also said that the usage of coal, oil and gas has not decreased in recent years but has gone up due to the supply crisis.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 13 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the difficulty faced by the Ukrainian refugees who were trying to enter Estonia. The refugees are observed to be delayed by the Russian authorities by making them wait in horrendous conditions and thoroughly checked in the border with Estonia to detain those escaping the conscription call. Estonia’s Border Guards are also monitoring strictly in the Narva border to restrict the entry of refugees. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Estonian Border Control has restricted at least 1,091 Ukrainians from entering their country. This is due to Estonia’s fears over public order and national security.
 
On 14 October, the US proposed to provide weapons and military vehicles as a part of a new security assistance package worth USD 725 million. The package includes high-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARMS), precision-guided artillery and medical supply. The package was the first aid by the US since the recent civilian attacks by Russia.
 
On 14 October, Ukrinform reported that the Netherlands’ Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation tweeted about the country’s aid to Ukraine. She said the Netherlands would provide EUR 70 million for heating in the winter season. Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said that the Netherlands would send anti-aircraft missiles worth 15 million to Ukraine as military aid.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 14 October, the East Mediterranean countries, Cyprus and Egypt, announced their readiness to help the EU after Russia disrupted Europe's oil and gas supply. The East Mediterranean region has a high potential for the extraction of gas and hydrogen. Egypt can export liquefied gas that is being sent from Israel to Europe. The Mediterranean region being a hub of hydrogen fuel, can also help the EU relieve the energy crunch through the extraction of renewable energy by Egypt and Cyprus.
 
On 14 October, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was frustrated by Russia for not letting them see the prisoner-of-war camp in Olenivka prison. It specified Russia by name but said it had rights to access prisoners of war according to the Geneva conventions. The Russian-controlled prison was attacked in July, killing 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war, including some Azovtol fighters. Zelenskyy called out to Russia to let ICRC enter Olenivka prison and claimed that Russia was allegedly trying to cover up the torture and murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war. 
 
On 14 October, International Monetary Fund (IMF) called out to Russia to stop the war. It said the war is driving inflation and slowing the global economy. The conflict has caused energy crises, food insecurity, cost of living, and financial instability. 

References
Zelensky, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia discuss financial aid, help with POW release,” Ukrinform, 14 October 2022
IAEA chief notes progress in creation of protection zone for Zaporizhzhia NPP,” Ukrinform, 14 October 2022
Spain hands over four Hawk air defence systems to Ukraine,” Ukrinform 14 October 2022
The general called the possible deadlines for the completion of the special operation in Ukraine,” LENTA RU, 14 October 2022
Partial mobilization to end in about two weeks — Putin,” TASS, 14 October 2022
Russia wants Central Asia to join import substitution effort, Putin says,” TASS, 14 October 2022
Russian minister outlines future of world’s energy supply,” RT, 14 October 2022
Manuel Orbegozo, “Estonia turns away Ukrainian refugees at EU border after harrowing wait,” Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2022
Mike Stone and Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. to send munitions, military vehicles to Ukraine in latest aid package,” Reuters, 15 October 2022
Netherlands to allocate €70M to Ukraine for heating season,” Ukrinform, 14 October 2022
Menelaos Hadjicostis, “EU official: East Med gas can wean bloc off Russian energy,” apnews, 14 October 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Red Cross frustrated by lack of access to PoWs in Russian-occupied Donetsk,” The Guardian, 14 October 2022
David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, “IMF countries strengthen calls to end Ukraine war, Russia blocks communique,” Reuters, 15 October 2022


13 October 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #331

War in Ukraine: Day 231 | Germany to deliver IRIS-T air defence system to Ukraine

Sweden coalition government formation delayed; Candidature recommendation of Bosnia and Herzegovina promoted by the European Commission

Photo : Defense Express


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
French authorities demand the end of strike by energy company employees
On 11 October, France's Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne ordered Esso-ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies oil refinery workers who are on a strike to resume work. The strike has led to the closure of around 30 per cent of service stations across France, prompting Borne to instruct the return of employees to service stations across the country. The government which has released strategic stockpiles of oil to ease the supply called for negotiation and an agreement between the government and the unions to put an end to the strike. However, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT) trade union, which is coordinating the strike amongst the workers rejected the recently proposed pay rise and said that they are prepared to go to war if France's government forces them to return to work. (“France orders energy companies to resolve strikes amid fuel shortages,” Euronews, 11 October 2022)

SWEDEN
Formation of the coalition government delayed
On 12 October, Euronews reported that Sweden’s right-wing parties had asked for more time to form a coalition government following its general elections on 11 September. On this issue, Moderates leader Ulf Kristersson said: "..have reached the goal, and we are in agreement, but there are details that need to be sorted out.” Kristersson, who has been given two additional days by the Speaker to present a potential cabinet, said that he expects to be ready by the end of 14 October. Sweden’s parliament will have to vote its confidence in Kristersson’s proposed government before it can assume office. (David Mac Dougall, “Sweden election: Right-wing parties miss deadline to form new government,” Euronews, 12 October 2022) 

THE UK
Former Brexit Minister warns against ECJ involvement in Northern Ireland Protocol dispute
On 11 October, the former Brexit minister spoke about the Northern Ireland Protocol. He said that Liz Truss should maintain her stance and not give the European Court of Justice (ECJ) a chance to interfere in the disputes regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. Speaking at the House of Lords during the second reading of the government's Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, Frost said that the fragility and sensitiveness of the Protocol would make it difficult for the European Court of Justice to deliberate on the issue. According to Frost: “The court of justice cannot have a jurisdictional or arbitrational role in the future arrangement. I can’t see how they will be stable while that remained the case. I think better if that was acknowledged sooner rather than later.” (Lisa O’Carroll, “ECJ must have no role in Northern Ireland protocol, David Frost says,” The Guardian, 11 October 2022)

REGIONAL
European Commissions recommends Bosnia and Herzegovina for candidate status
On 12 October European Commission released its annual enlargement report recommending candidate status for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country has been a potential candidate for the EU since 2003 and formally applied for membership in 2016. In 2019, the Commission provided 14 key priorities for the country to fulfill before the EU accession negotiations could be facilitated. While the Commission's recommendation will not immediately change the country's chances of getting candidacy, it could catalyze the reforms necessary for the country to begin its accession process. The report identified eight areas like rule of law, the country’s courts, election law, public procurement law, and public financial management, where further progress reports were required. It is expected that Bosnia and Herzegovina could make quick progress in the implementation of 14 conditions initially mentioned by the Commission if it could deliver on the eight elements. However, despite the Commission's recommendation, Bosnia and Herzegovina would have to get affirmation from the EU member states before it is granted candidate status. (Alexandra Brzozowski, “EU Commission to recommend Bosnia-Herzegovina be granted candidate status,” EURACTIV, 12 October 2022)

Ahead of the annual summit, Estonia becomes co-chair of Open Government Partnership
On 12 October, ERR News reported that Estonia will be taking over as the co-chair of the Open Government Partnership (OGP). The OGP is a multilateral initiative for the promotion of open and strong government focusing on citizen empowerment and fighting corruption. So far, there are 77 national partners and 106 local partners in the group. Ahead of the organization’s summit next year in Tallinn, Estonia’s State Secretary Taimar Peterkop will be representing civil society in the organization along with Uruguay's Institute for Communication and Development Director, Annabel Cruz for the next year. Estonia has been a part of the OGP since its inception in 2011 and was selected by other member states and civil society representatives to be the co-chair for the upcoming season. (“Estonia takes on Open Government Partnership co-chair role,” ERR News, 12 October 2022) 

EEA reports identifies five issues impacting sustainable development of urban sectors
On 10 October, the European Environmental Agency (EEA) updated its report titled ‘Urban sustainability in Europe — Post‑pandemic drivers of environmental transitions.’ The report outlined the impact of the COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, climate change, environmental degradation, and the impending energy crisis that is plaguing Europe’s cities. Published during the European Week of Regions and Cities, the report also identified a lack of affordable housing, urban sprawl, road congestion, demographic change, and social exclusion as pressing issues for Europe’s urban sectors. It emphasized the need to ensure green policies for cities, which will be tailored as per the requirements of each, instead of blanket policies. The report also identified specific issues like climate resilience, quality of life, accessibility, healthy environment, food security, circularity, clean energy, and sustainable buildings as verticals where future work was needed. (“Post-pandemic recovery offers European cities chance to boost shift to sustainability,” eea.europa.eu, 10 October 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
China accused of developing the tech sector for international control
The Head of the UK’s cybersecurity agency the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), Jeremy Flemming alleged that China was using its economic and technological clout to change the rules of international security. He said that while the war in Ukraine was an important geopolitical event in Europe, China’s growing technological prowess was the defining national security issue in the future. He mentioned how technology was gradually transforming from an area of opportunity, competition, and collaboration to a battleground for “control, values, and influence.” On this issue, he alleged that China was trying to “gain strategic advantage by shaping the world’s technology ecosystems” for its benefit. (Jill Lawless, “UK spy chief says rise of China world’s top security issue,” AP News, 12 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 231
By Rishma Banerjee and Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 12 October, the report of Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces on Telegram Ukraine launched strong counter-offensives to Russia in Bakhmut and Avdiiv directions. Although Russia was attacking with one ballistic and 28-wing missiles, Ukraine struck down 20 of them using air defence systems. Ukraine also condemned Russia for destroying civilian infrastructures and violating International Humanitarian law. The report also mentioned that Belarus had supplied Russia with 20 T-72 tanks and repairing the military equipment of Russia. The shortage of doctors in the temporarily occupied region of Luhansk was also highlighted in the report.
 
On the same day, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko met with the US Finance Minister during the IMF and the World Bank Annual Meeting. They discussed additional financial assistance to Ukraine, and the imposition of stricter sanctions on Russia through energy price cap. He thanked the US for being the highest provider of financial assistance of USD 8.5 billion. The fund is used to stabilize the economy and protect state spending, such as payment of salaries, pensions, and social benefits during wartime.

On 12 October, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted that Ukraine had received IRIS-T air defence systems from Germany. He also added that Ukraine is expecting the US-Norwegian NASAMS air defence system.

On 12 October, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) discovered another torture chamber in the Donetsk region. Tools used for torture and sharp instruments were found in the chamber. An official investigation about the chamber has been launched by the SBU, who are trying to identify the victims of the chamber and the Russians involved in torture. The chamber was similar to the ones used by Russian soldiers that have been found in other parts of Ukraine.

On 12 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requested that the UN Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization add Odessa as a world heritage site. He urged UNESCO to remove Russia from the chair as it is an aggressive state that attacked Ukraine. He called Russia “....an enemy of culture, an enemy of history, an enemy of education, an enemy of science.” According to him, the port city of Odessa is one of the most significant cities in Ukraine and has a rich history behind it. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 October, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) accused Ukraine’s Defence Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of being responsible for the explosion of the Kerch Bridge. FSB alleged that Commander Kirill Budanov was the mastermind of the attack. The agency suspects 12 accomplices for the attack, out of which eight were arrested. Those who were arrested were Russians, Ukrainians, and Armenians.
 
On 12 October, the head of the local military-civilian administration, Vladimir Rogov spoke about the power supply to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The ZNPP has been disconnected from the external power supply twice in five days, but the supply has since been restored. Rogov mentioned that before the restoration of power, the plant had to be sustained by temporary diesel generators for less than an hour.
 
On 12 October, the Press Secretary of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that there was no new wave of mobilization. The comment came as a clarification to the announcements made on 11 October by the governor of the Rostov region, Vasily Golubev claiming that his region had received a new mobilization call. In this regard, Peskov said that Russia will require to clarify “with each specific governor what they have in mind,” to prevent the spreading of such misinformation.
 
On 12 October, the Russian oil company Zarubezhneft said that a complete temporary shutdown of fuel production was possible after the sanctions imposed by the EU come into effect on 05 December. The head of the company, Sergei Kudryashov said that the state oil company will thus face critical challenges due to the sanctions, but assured that he had a plan to restore production within two weeks. On a similar note, Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov said that he expects a five per cent reduction in oil production in Russia in 2023 due to European embargos. Sazanov also mentioned that due to the sanctions, Russia’s oil industry will face considerable logistical difficulties,

On 12 October, in an address at a Russian Energy Week conference in Moscow, Putin said that Russia plans to create a natural gas hub by redirecting the gas flow to the Black Sea instead of the Nord Stream pipelines. Putin also mentioned that Russia would be able to repair the damaged pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Plans to transform Turkey into the largest gas hub in Europe was also floated by Putin. He added that there are no economic benefits to repairing the Nord Stream pipelines for Russia unless Europe lowers the sanctions and cooperates with them.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 October, through its automated detection systems, the Polish pipeline operator PERN reported a leak in one line of the Druzhba pipeline, which carries oil from Russia to Europe. The leak was located around 70 kilometers from Plock, in Poland, and was on the main route transporting crude oil to Germany. While the causes of the leak are still being investigated, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that it was too early to ascertain whether the leak was accidental damage or was caused by sabotage.

On the same day, at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed his confidence in Ukraine being able to battle through the upcoming winter months. Austin said that with the assistance of additional air defence systems and international aid, Ukraine should be adequately equipped to carry on its counteroffensive. He mentioned that around 50 countries had pledged military support to Ukraine and that the US would also do “everything it can throughout the winter” to help Ukraine regain territories under Russia’s control.

Russia’s offensive through missile attacks on Ukraine and the leaks in the Nord Stream pipeline has increased Finland’s concerns about the spillover effect of the war. Due to such developments, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto confirmed that Finland would receive support from its NATO partners in case of a direct threat by Russia. Even though Finland does not yet fall under the jurisdiction of NATO’s Article 5 enshrining the principle of collective defence, NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg also reiterated NATO’s mission to strengthen the critical infrastructure of its allies. 

On 12 October, Turkey’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Donmez said that Turkey was prepared to play an important role in the global transportation of energy. He mentioned that Turkey is a major player in its neighborhood when it comes to the transportation of energy resources, as the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines have remained functional due to Turkey’s efforts. Donmez also said: “Considering Türkiye’s success in international energy projects, its reliability as an energy partner, and its advanced natural gas infrastructure, our country can play critical roles in the delivery of natural gas from neighboring countries to markets in the West, as well as in the future.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 October, WAM reported on the meeting between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. The two discussed the present Russia-Ukraine conflict and the importance of talks between the two. Putin informed the Sheikh of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant condition and Russia's efforts to secure it. He also expressed his gratitude to the UAE for its role in the prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. The Sheikh on his part spoke about Ukraine’s view on a number of issues and asked Putin to keep a dialogue open with Kyiv. 
 
On 12 October, The Korea Times reported that five yachts carrying 23 Russians fleeing from the partial mobilization were denied entry into South Korea. Two Russians were admitted into the country, while the rest were denied due to no clarity on the purpose of their visit. South Korea is turning down Russian refugees from entering their country. 

References
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “Operational information as of 06.00 12.10.2022 on the Russian invasion,” Telegram, 12 October 2022
Serhiy Marchenko met with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen,” kmu.gov.ua, 12 October 2022
German IRIS-T Air Defence Systems Already in Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 12 October 2022
Oleksii Reznikov, “A new era of air defence has begun,” Twitter, 12 October 2022
We have prepared the nomination dossier of Odesa for inclusion in the World Heritage List - address of the President of Ukraine to the participants of the 215th session of the UNESCO Executive Council,” president.gov.ua, 11 October 2022
Jay Beecher, “Another Russian Torture Chamber Discovered in Eastern Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 12 October 2022
Russians, Ukrainians, Armenians among 8 people arrested by FSB for Crimean Bridge attack,” TASS, 12 October 2022
Russia names chief suspect in Crimea Bridge attack,” RT, 12 October 2022
Power supply to Zaporozhye NPP restored — local official,” TASS, 12 October 2022
The Kremlin answered the question about the "new wave" of mobilization in Russia,” LENTA RU, 12 October 2022
In Russia allowed the suspension of oil production due to sanctions,” LENTA RU, 12 October 2022
Putin suggests major gas hub in Türkiye with Nord Stream supplies,” Daily Sabah, 12 October 2022
Poland reports leak in oil pipeline to Germany,” Deutsche Welle, 12 October 2022
Phil Stewart, Sabine Siebold and Philip Blenkinsop, “U.S. predicts Ukraine will battle through winter; allies bolster air defenses,” Reuters, 13 October 2022
Türkiye ready to help transfer gas to Europe: Energy Minister,” Daily Sabah, 12 October 2022
Haavisto: Finland would receive support from Nato partners in case of direct threat, even before full membership,” yle.fi12 October 2022
Lee Yeon-woo, “23 Russian nationals fleeing Putin's draft order on yachts attempt to enter Korea,” The Korea Times, 12 October 2022


12 October 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #330

War in Ukraine: Day 230 | IMF warns of slow global economic growth in 2023

Ballot rigging allegations in Bosnia election; Bank of England's preventive measures against financial instability; Austria file a case against EU for inclusion of gas and nuclear power in Green energy

Photo : WSJ/IMF


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

BOSNIA
Protests rise against Milorad Dodik for ballot rigging scandal
On 10 October, thousands of people protested against the Russia-favouring Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, for allegedly rigging the general election to his favour. The demonstration was the second in a week. The opposition claim that Dodik had rigged the ballot and their candidate Jelena Trivic was robbed of her victory. The government had asked for rechecking of every ballot in the country and recounting of 1000 polling stations before the final tally. He had denied any allegation about the possible cheating in the election. Dodik was one of the key figures behind the separatist movement asking for Republika Srpska to be separated from the Bosnia. He has close ties with Russia, which fuels the instability in the country. The country suffers from corruption and ethnic tensions between the Bosniak Serbs and Bosniak-Croat. (“Bosnia election: Vote-rigging allegations spark more mass protests,” euronews, 10 October 2022)

ESTONIA
Two deputy mayors of Kohtla-Jarve asked to resign by the Mayor on the grounds of corruption
On 11 October, two Deputy Mayors from the Estonian city of Kohtla-Jarve were suspected of corruption have denied Mayor Toomas Nael’s request to resign. Deputy Mayor for social affairs Evelyn Danilov and Deputy Mayor for economic affairs Vitaly Borodin were the two accused officals in relation with corruption. Both denied accusations and refused to resign. Mayor Nael said that he abhors corruption and added that necessary action must be taken against it. He also demanded that the whole city administration resign if both accused are unwilling to resign themselves. According to Nael, new information that he received points to the corruption makes it necessary that both deputy mayors face consequences for their actions. (“Kohtla-Järve deputy mayors refuse to resign over corruption allegations,” news.err.ee, 11 October 2022)

GERMANY
Union strikes in Amazon at different locations across Germany
On 11 October, German trade union Verdi announced that workers at nine Amazon distribution centres would strike to pressure the company into multiple agreements. The workers were planning to strike on Amazon’s two-day Prime Early Access Sale so that it would disrupt the company’s profit. The strikes happen at different locations and at different timing, making it difficult for Amazon to stop them. Although Amazon had increased the wages of logistical employees, it was little compared to the rising inflations. The union looks to bargain numerous agreements with these strikes. (“German union calls on Amazon workers to strike during sale,” Reuters, 11 October 2022)
 
THE UK
Bank of England to keep the finance stable
On 11 October, Bank of England (BOE) proposed to spend up to GBP five billion per day to keep the inflation from rising. This will through purchase of government debt bonds, especially the index-linked gilts to boost UK’s bond market. The market fluctuation was the result of the UK’s recent government budget announcement. Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng had announced earlier in September that there would be tax cuts and lot of borrowing to compensate that. The BOE plans to act as a backstop to restore the market. The buying of government bonds is seen as a measure to keep the UK’s finance from becoming unstable. (“Bank of England widens action on financial stability fears,” Deutsche Welle, 11 October 2022)

Heathrow become the busiest airport in Europe again
On 11 October, BBC reported that according to the latest passenger data, Heathrow became the busiest airport in Europe again. Heathrow was dethroned due to the COVID-19 pandemic and was the 10th busiest airport in Europe in 2021. Even though it regained its title as the busiest airport in Europe, Heathrow is still 15 per cent behind its before pandemic level in passenger number. The airport has brought in cap on number of departing passengers to 100,000 per day in July. The cap will end on 29 October. It successfully handled 18 million passengers over summer. Heathrow still face the problem of staff shortage that has led to demands of surging passengers not being met. However, it recovered from the Covid slump and is steadily regaining the passenger flow. (“Heathrow regains crown as Europe's busiest airport, data shows,” BBC, 11 October 2022)

CLIMATE
Austria sue EU on labelling gas and nuclear power as sustainable sources 
On 10 September, Austria is suing the EU over labelling gas and nuclear energy as green. The inclusion of gas and nuclear energy as climate-friendly sustainable resource was deemed to be risky by Austria. Austria pointed out that the nuclear power can cause severe harm to the environment such as in the case of Chernobyl and Fukishima nuclear disasters. Austria is trying to garner support among the member nations to pursue a legal challenge against the EU to exclude gas and nuclear power as sustainable investment options. The EU reasons the inclusion gas and nuclear-power as a sustainable energy source can attract investments and also does not cause extreme environmental problems. (“Austria files case over EU's 'green' gas and nuclear label,” Duetsche Welle, 10 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 230
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 11 October, President Zelenskyy addressed the G7 members in a virtual meeting. He said it was impossible to negotiate with Russia unless they toughen their sanctions. Zelenskyy also met with the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to discuss information about the situation on the front and the next steps regarding the de-occupation of territories under Russia’s control. The Minister of Internal Affairs, Denys Monastyrskyi, reported on the recent missile strikes by Russia and spoke about the mitigation of the destruction and protection of critical infrastructure facilities.

On 11 October, Russia launched missiles and drones with munitions at Ukraine again, following the recent attacks in Kyiv and 12 other regions on 10 October. Russia's recent attacks resulted in air raid across the country. Government officials requested everyone to store water and energy as it was apprehended that power and water lines might be affected by the missiles. 

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry informed that Russia had been preparing for the massive missile strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure since the beginning of October. Thus, seven Tu-160 strategic bombers were transferred from Olenya airfield and equipped with Kh-101 missiles. Additionally, six cruise missiles with 40 Kalibr missiles were deployed to Sevastopol. The Directorate alleged that the main aim of Russia was to destroy the thermal power plant there.

Ukraine and Russia successfully negotiated the transfer of the bodies of 62 Ukrainian soldiers. Most of these soldiers were killed in the Olenivka prison, where many Ukrainian prisoners of war had been detained. Both Ukraine and Russia have accused the other of shelling the facility, but Ukraine has denied targeting civilian infrastructure or prisoners of war. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 October, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the recent missile attacks in Ukraine. He stated that the initial goals of the special military operation in Ukraine had not changed. Speaking to Rosaya-1, Lavrov criticized Ukraine for not granting citizens identifying as Russian the right to do so. He said: “It should not be a country that’s allowed everything, and whose impunity crosses all boundaries and leads to murders of journalists, political figures, and deputies of the Verkhovnaya Rada.”

On 11 October, President Putin signed a decree extending 2014 anti-sanctions involving a food embargo. In 2014, Putin signed a decree banning food imports from the US, the EU, Norway, Australia, and Canada. Because of the ban, meat and dairy products, fish, vegetables, and fruits from these countries were restricted from entering Russia. In 2015, the ban was extended to Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Ukraine. Now, as per the signed decree, the ban has been extended till 31 December 2023, to “ensure the security” of Russia. 

On 10 October, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin gave an official update about the repair efforts on the Kerch Bridge. He said that a pillar and the rail track of the bridge has been destroyed by the explosion and will require repair. However, he assured that the damages do not pose any threat to vehicles using the bridge. Sergey Aksyonov had said that the damaged pillars are expected to be repaired by the end of this week, even though earlier the head of Crimea, and the repair work could take up to two months. According to Khusnullin, around 150 people were involved in the clean-up and repair efforts and the asphalt on the damaged part of the bridge had already been successfully removed.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 11 October, Canada announced it would send 40 combat engineers to Poland. This will support Poland’s effort to train Ukraine's forces as a part of its commitment to assist Ukraine's military against the war. The deployment also marks the resumption of training provided by the Canadian Armed Forces to Ukraine's military. Since 2915, over 33,000 military and security personnel have received training from Canada, but the training effort had been paused since February 2022.

On the same day, Germany’s government proposed increase in support to areas struggling to accommodate over 1.1 million refugees that have arrived in the country in 2022. While a considerable section of the refugees come from Syria and Afghanistan, the numbers have been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant exodus of refugees. Interior Minister, Nancy Fraser said that earlier in the year, the government had allocated federal real estate to set up tents for tens of thousands of refugees but given the current crisis, property for around 4000 more refugees will be provided. She also said that additional financial support will also be given, but the amount has not been declared yet. Moreover, Fraser said that providing good care for refugees from Ukraine was a “big humanitarian effort” and that Germany was expecting more people from Ukraine because of Russia’s recent escalation in Ukraine.

On 10 October, US President Joe Biden reiterated his commitment to Ukraine's war efforts. Following Russia’s recent missile attacks, he pledged more advanced air defence systems. However, he did not provide any other details about what the new pledge might entail. Regarding air defence; he said that it was the primary priority in Ukraine’s defence cooperation with the US.

On the same day, Sweden’s prime minister Magdalena Andersson said that Russia will not be allowed to join the investigation on the causes of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines. The announcement came after Sweden invited an EU probe to look into the leaks. It also said that the findings of the investigation will be kept confidential. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 11 October, Japanese car company Nissan announced that they will withdraw their business from Russia. According to Russia's Industry and Trade Ministry, the company will also sell its factory in St. Petersburg. Russian car manufacturer, AutoVaz will take over the supply of spare parts and maintenance of Nissan cars plying in the country. In a separate statement, Nissan said that the deal with AutoVaz will be finalized soon, and the company will take a loss of around USD 686.5 million. 

The IMF released its World Economic Outlook. The report says that global economic growth in 2023 is expected to slow down more than initially. The IMF said that the additional slowdown could be attributed primarily to the effects of the war in Ukraine on the global economy, coupled with a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and a slowdown in China’s economic output. The expansion of the economy in 2023 is expected to be at 2.7 per cent, which is a 6 percent reduction from 2021, and a 3.2 per cent reduction from 2022. The estimate also marks the weakest growth profile since 2001, excluding the 2008 financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On 11 October, UN General Assembly voted against Russia’s call for holding secret ballots to vote on the constitutionality of Russia’s annexation of four regions of Ukraine. With 107 votes in favor, the UNGA decided that the vote deciding on the "illegal so-called referenda" and the "attempted illegal annexation” of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, LPR, and DPR will be public. 13 countries voted for a secret ballot and 39 countries including Russia and China abstained from voting. 

Also on 11 October, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Ravina Shamdasani released a statement about the escalation of Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine. The timing and locations of the missile attacks have increased concerns that Russia is deliberately targeting critical civilian infrastructure. Shamdasani criticized the attacks and said that the strikes may have violated international humanitarian law. She called on Russia to cease such attacks and ensure that civilian casualties are prevented.

On 10 October, The UN High Commission for Refugees chief, Filippo Grandi also referred to the damages caused to civilian areas in Ukraine and said that as is the nature of war, civilians were paying the highest price. Moreover, he spoke about the refugee situation in Ukraine. Urging for an “all hands on deck approach,” Grandi called on experts, stakeholders, and organizations with the relevant resources to increase their efforts to support their respective government’s plans to accommodate the refugees. He praised the EU’s move to provide Ukrainians fleeing the war with temporary protection permits, allowing them to cross international borders within the EU and avail services where they have “support networks.” 

References
A meeting of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief was held,” president.gov.ua, 11 October 2022
Russia Returns Bodies of 62 Ukraine Defenders: Kyiv,” Kyiv Post,  11 October 2022
Adam Schreck,“UN, G7 decry Russian attack on Ukraine as possible war crime,” AP News, 11 October 2022
The Russians have been planning missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and infrastructure since the beginning of October,” gur.gov.ua, 10 October 2022
Lavrov says special operation goals haven’t changed, Ukraine can’t be terrorist state,” TASS, 11 October 2022
Nissan to Exit Russian Market, Sell Assets to Moscow,” The Moscow Times, 11 October 2022
Putin extended anti-sanctions decree until 2023,” TASS, 11 October 2022
Official update given on repairs to Crimean Bridge,” RT, 10 October 2022
Kuba Stezycki and Joanna Plucinska, “Canada to send 40 combat engineers to Poland to train Ukraine soldiers,” Reuters, 11 October 2022
Jules Darmanin, “Biden pledges ‘advanced air defense systems’ to Ukraine after Russian strikes,” POLITICO, 11 October 2022
Kirsten Grieshaber, “Germany struggles to find housing for more than 1M refugees,” AP News, 11 October 2022
Sweden Nixes Russian Participation In Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Leak Investigation,” rferl.org, 10 October 2022
Yuka Hayashi, “IMF Cuts 2023 Global Growth Forecast, Citing Inflation, War and China Slowdown,” Wall Street Journal, 11 October 2022
Ukraine: Attack on civilians and infrastructure,” ohchr.org, 11 October 2022
Michelle Nichols, “U.N. publicly rejects Russia's call for secret vote on Ukraine,” Reuters, 11 October 2022
Ukraine: Russian large-scale strikes are ‘unacceptable escalation’, says Guterres,” news.un.org, 10 October 2022


11 October 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #329

War in Ukraine: Day 229 | Belarus and Russia to launch a joint force unit

Germany's cybersecurity chief to be investigated; EU's lowest gas price in three months; UK's fiscal plan to come earlier

Photo : vk.com/myfeo_ru/via Globallookpress.com/RT


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
Trial for 2009 crash begins for Airbus and Air France
On 10 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the commencement Airbus and Air France’s trial for the Paris-Rio crash that occurred in 2009. The two companies have been accused of involuntary manslaughter after flight AF 447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean killing 228 people on board, including 12 crew members. Aviation experts, pilots and family members of victims are expected to give testimony in the hearings that will last over two months. Air France has been accused for not providing adequate training in the event of a crash due to bad weather and Airbus is accused of knowing that the pilot tubes of the flight were faulty and not informing the airlines and the crew about it. If convicted, each company faces a maximum fine of EUR 220,000. (“Airbus, Air France to go on trial for 2009 Rio-Paris crash,” Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2022)

GERMANY
Investigation launched to check links of Head of the national cybersecurity
On 10 October, Germany’s Interior Ministry announced that it is investigating the Head of Germany’s national cybersecurity agency over her links with Russia’s intelligence. President of the Federal Office for Information Security, Arné Schonbohm, who heads the BSI agency co-founded a group that includes public and private companies’ stakeholders in Germany’s cybersecurity sector. On 08 October, Germany's rail company, Deutsche Bahn suffered a failure of the digital train radio system, which raised concerns about compromise of Germany's critical infrastructure, especially in the context of the Ukraine war and Germany’s opposition to Russia. On this issue, the Transport Minister Volker Wissing said that Germany’s Federal Police was investigating the incident. (“German cybersecurity chief investigated over Russia ties,” AP News, 10 October 2022)

SPAIN
Head of Spain’s Supreme Court steps down nudging deadlock between top parties on new appointments
On 10 October, the head of Spain's Supreme Court, Carlos Lesmes Serrano stepped down. His mandate had ended in 2018, but he stayed on as the tribunal's acting president, as the two main political parties, the People's Party and and ruling Socialist party failed to end a four-year long stalemate on judicial appointment. Lesmes said: "Remaining in the post from now on would only make me complicit in the situation I abhor and is unacceptable." Following his resignation, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the leader of the opposition Alberto Nunez Feijoo held a meeting marking the first step to appoint the new General Council of the judiciary which selects judges to Spain's Supreme Court. (“Spanish supreme court head set to quit after four-year stalemateReuters, 10 October 2022) 

THE UK
UK’s fiscal plan to be released earlier
On 10 October, POLITICO reported that UK Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng will reveal the government's economic plans on 31 October. The economic and fiscal forecast and UK's medium-term fiscal plan will be released before 23 November as had been initially planned, due to pressure from Conservative MPs. Kwarteng announced the rescheduling of the date via a letter to the common’s Treasury Committee Chairman Mel Stride. Kwarteng’s initial proposal termed as the ‘mini budget’ led to a sharp fall in the pound’s value, forcing him to withdraw his plan to lower taxes for UK’s top earners. According to him, the government will conduct an "an in-depth assessment of the economy and public finances" before publishing its decision. Stride welcomed the development saying that if the government’s plans are well-accepted, it could lead the Bank of England to raise its interest rates by a lesser margin than expected, thus helping mortgage holders. (Graham Lanktree, “UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to unveil fiscal plan October 31,” POLITICO, 10 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Low demand and lesser industrial production reduce Europe’s gas prices
On 10 October, Euronews revealed that Europe's gas prices had reached a three-month low. The fall in prices has been ascribed to a decrease in demand. It also comes after the European Commission announced that EU's gas storages had reached 90 per cent capacity, before November as had been decided by the bloc earlier. One of Europe's main trading hubs, Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) reported that the price was hovering around EUR 150 per megawatt-hour, which was an improvement from the EUR 349 it had hit in August. However, prices still remain exceptionally high as in 2021, the price of gas was around EUR 38 per megawatt-hour. (Jorge Liboreiro, “Europe's gas prices reach three-month low as consumer demand and industrial production decline,” Euronews, 10 October 2022)

EU leaders hail the success of Cohesion Policy
On 10 October, the 20th European Week of Regions and Cities began. The event which will continue until 13 October will have over 15,000 participants across 300 sessions on issues like green transition, territorial cohesion, digital transition and youth empowerment. At the press conference arranged to commemorate the event, Commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms, Elisa Ferreira and the President of the Committee of the Regions spoke about the importance of EU's Cohesion policy. Ferreira said that the Cohesion Policy is the "glue that holds Europe together." According to the eighth Cohesion report published recently, the policy, representing one third of EU's budget has impacted regional growth significantly. It had halved the GDP gap of Central and Eastern countries that became members after 2004 and has fostered green energy transition. It has also assisted the countries to deal with the COVID 19 pandemic and the fallouts Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (“20th European Week of Regions and Cities – Cohesion Policy makes a real difference,” ec.europa.eu, 10 October 2022)

CLIMATE
Increased plastic pollution and presence of harmful bacteria found along the Latvia-Lithuania coast
On 10 October, Euronews reported on increased levels of plastic and bacteria found along the Latvia-Lithuania coastline. The study was conducted by “My Sea Campaign” volunteers who combed a 100 meters section on four beaches to collect and identify litter. The project was budgeted at EUR 449,574, 85 per cent of which was financed by the European Cohesion Policy and other participating project partners gave the remaining 15 per cent. The group found 736 pieces of litter in 100 meters of beach, which is 36 times the European standard for good environmental status (GES) of 20 litter items per 100 meters of beach length. The increased level of plastic has been linked to an increase in bacterial growth of Vibrio, which can be harmful for humans. A senior microbiologist and scientist, Marija Katarzyte explained the phenomenon and said: "Due to climate change, the vibrio coastal infections are increasing in the Baltic Sea region and plastic is one of the ways how those bacteria might be transported." Vibrio has been found in 67 per cent of the samples collected from the Amber Coast, where people dig up the beach for amber, thus exposing themselves to the dangerous bacteria. (Aurora Velez, “Dangerous bacteria found in plastic pollution on Latvian and Lithuanian coastline,” Euronews, 10 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 229
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 10 October, Ukraine’s military intelligence reported on Russia’s plan to launch attacks in Sevastopol, where it observed movement of Russian military, deployment of warships and placing of bombers in cruise missiles sent through Olenya air base. The key targets are expected to be the infrastructure in the main Ukrainian cities.
 
On 10 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called a meeting to assess the damage and ways to restore energy supply and communications. Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Halushchenko assured about the supply back of electricity. There was consensus among all the participants to decrease energy consumption during peak hours. This is to ensure that there is no extra load on the power grid. The energy supply shortage had affected mobile communications in areas causing disruptions. Proposals were put forth to supply network providers with fuel for generators and provide connections to Starlink stations to prevent further interruptions. 
 
On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tweeted about a call with French President Emmanuel Macron. In the call they discussed on bolstering Ukrainian air defence and increasing the pressure on Russia. They also discussed the necessity of tougher European and International reactions.
 
On 10 October, Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu reported on an explosion near the Romanian Embassy in Kyiv. Aurescu assured that people working in the embassy were not hurt. The explosion is seen due to a Russian missile strike which exploded nearly 850 meters away. He criticized the missile strikes and called it as a “blatant violation of international humanitarian law, resulting in loss of human lives.”
 
On 10 October, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine receiving the first batch of the IRIS-T SLM air defence system from Germany’s Ministry of Defence. It was confirmed by the ministry in an official tweet on its aim to protect Ukraine’s air space to counter Russian missile strikes. The IRIS-T SLM is a ground-based air defence system by Diehl Defence. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that they will retaliate strongly if attacks on Russian territories continue. The State Council of Crimea, Head Vladimir Konstantinov proposed an amendment regarding mandatory conscription. According to him no Crimean of eligible age should be allowed to flee the country. A federal law will be introduced as an amendment on mobilisation.
 
On 10 October, Gazprom bank in a statement announced that it will be suspending business activities on the Swiss Financial Markets. The Switzerland branch of the bank published this statement on its website. They have outlined that any present businesses in the trade sector will be closed off or moved to other partners. The Chairman of the Board of Directors, Ivan Dun said: “The decision is the result of an in-depth strategy analysis and is being taken in close consultation with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 October, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko accused Kyiv of trying to open an alternative war front with Minsk. He announced that the “formation of a joint unit” between Belarusian military and the Russian forces. The details of the military partnership in still unknown. With the collaboration, there are possibilities of attacks to be launched from Belarus front.
 
On 10 October, EU Foreign Policy Chief Joseph Borrell criticised the bloc regarding its slow response to Ukraine military training missions. While addressing the ambassadors of member nations, he spoke up about the plans that the EU had for Ukrainian Military training missions months prior to the war. He criticised the EU for delaying the training even after the war broke out. The EU is said to take up this matter on 17 October in a discussion with foreign ministers. 
 
On 10 October, Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš urged the EU leaders to stop giving Russians tourist visas. He criticized his counterparts on the idea of allowing Russians to weaken the Russian Armed forces. Instead, he remarked that it will in turn create an insecurity in the EU. Kariņš agreed under screening of individual case. 
 
On 10 October, Reuters reported on the upcoming meet between Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Kazakhstan. The discussion is expected to be on a proposal for Turkey to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine although the negotiations seem to have no potential. 
 
On 10 October, the Hungarian government released that they are building a pipeline with Serbia to supply oil. Serbia is facing high costs for crude oil due to new sanctions on Russia by the EU. Hence, this new pipeline aims to supply cheaper Russian Urals crude via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Hungary will be connecting Serbia to the Friendship pipeline through this initiative. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 10 October, Deutsche Welle reported on UNGA’s plan to open a debate for a draft resolution against Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian cities. Since the vote has been continuously vetoed by Russia in the UNSC resolution, the attempt is seen as way to take measure against Russia. According to Swedish diplomat Olof Skoog on failure of the UNGA to act on Russia would mean: “…carte blanche to other countries to do likewise or to give recognition to what Russia has done.”
 
On 10 October, a Chinese spokesperson reported on the Foreign Ministry note of the reports about the explosions in Kyiv and is expecting a de-escalation of the conflict. It expected that the tensions would “ease as soon as possible.” The spokesperson added that the Ukrainian conflict remains undeterred and expecting a resolution through peaceful talks.
 
On 10 October, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told a joint news conference that the Russia-Ukraine war “does not serve the interests of anybody.” He refused to comment on the stance his government would take regarding a UNGA motion that condemns Moscow’s annexation of Ukrainian territories. Speaking of the issue with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Jaishankar added that the Indian government has been clearly opposing the conflict, and that “neither the participants nor the international community” benefit from this aggression. 

References
Russia has been planning missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure since early Oct - intelligence”, ukrinform, 10 October 2022 
Germany is sending the first of the four newest IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine. “ukrinform, 10 October 2022 
President held a meeting on the restoration of communications and energy supply damaged by Russian attacks”, president.gov.us, 10 October 2022
Zelensky speaks with Macron on strengthening Ukrainian air defenses, pressure on Russia”, ukrinform, 10 October 2022
Russian missile explodes close to Romanian embassy in Kyiv”,ukrinform, 10 October 2022
Putin vows tough response if Kiev continues terror attacks on Russian territory”, Tass, 10 October 2022
Gazprombank discontinues business activities on Swiss financial market”, Tass, 10 October 2022
In Crimea, it was proposed to ban the departure of Russia for conscripts”, LENTA RU, 10 October 2022
Lukashenko spoke about the deployment of the Russian military in Belarus”, LENTA RU, 10 October 2022
Putin may meet Erdogan to discuss idea of Russia-West talks, Kremlin says”, Reuters, 10 October 
Top EU diplomat laments slow start for Ukraine training plan”, AP News, 10 October 2022
Hungary, Serbia agree to build pipeline to ship Russian oil to Serbia,” Reuters, 10 October 2022
Latvian PM calls on EU to end all tourist visas for Russians”, The Guardian, 10 October 2022
Chinese authorities expect de-escalation in Ukrainian conflict, diplomat says,” Tass, 10 October 2022
Indian minister says Ukraine war serves no one’s interests,” Reuters, 10 October 2022  
U.N. says Russian air strikes in Ukraine 'unacceptable escalation',” Reuters, 10 October 2022
"Belarus and Russia to deploy joint regional military group," Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2022


10 October 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #328

War in Ukraine: Day 227 & 228

Austrian President elected for his second term; Economic crisis causes high cost of living crises in Italy; Biden approves the EU-US data privacy framework

Photo : vk.com/myfeo_ru/via Globallookpress.com/RT


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

AUSTRIA
Austrian president to be re-elected
On 09 October, the Interior Ministry announced the preliminary results of the Austria Elections which revealed the possibility of the incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen to be elected again. Van der Bellen won a majority of 54.6 per cent with no opposition and support from bigger parties except the far-right Freedom Party. The opposition candidate, Walter Rosenkranz of the far-right Freedom Party received only 19.1 per cent votes due to decline in the support from the previous corruption scandal. (“Austria elections: President Van der Bellen reelected, projections show”, Deutsche Welle, 09 October 2022)
 
GERMANY
Social Democrats win the Lower Saxony elections adding advantage to German Chancellor
On 09 October, the Social Democrats from the current coalition of Germany won the regional elections held in Lower Saxony despite the critics over economic recession and energy crisis. The vote includes the SPD party led by Stephen Weil won with 33.4 per cent which was slightly less than the 2017 elections where is won 36.9 per cent. In case of the opposition, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was able to get only 28.1 per cent with decrease of five per cent from the 2017 elections. The coalition probabilities are likely to be between the SPD’s and the Greens which came third in the elections with 14.5 per cent. Another takeaway to look at the election result is the doubling of vote share of the AfD (far-right Alternative for Germany party) which increased to 10.9 per cent. (“Germany: Lower Saxony election a boost for Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” Deutsche Welle, 09 October 2022)
 
ITALY
Economic crisis looms over Italy, reducing household spending capacity
On 09 October, La Repubblica reported that according to the data by Confesercenti, an Italian trade association representing firms in trade, tourism, services, crafts and small services, Italians have reduced their purchasing power due to the rising energy prices. The soaring energy costs have made Italy’s citizens to spend money from their savings thereby diminishing it. The spending capacity has fallen by almost EUR 12.1 billion. High energy tariffs and inflation has increased the cost of living among the citizens. Italians are not looking for credits due to the high interest rates. However, tourism in Italy has started to revive slowly from the COVID-19 economic crisis. (Carlotta Scozzari, “The high cost of life burns 12.1 billion of Italians. And families use the savings,” La Repubblica, 09 October 2022) 
 
REGIONAL
MED 5 push for EU intervention amid migration fears 
On 08 October, MED 5 consisting of Mediterranean countries pushed the EU to intervene to curb the increase in migration. Ministers of Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Spain met for their fourth meeting to discuss the surge in migration in the region. Italy is also a part of this group but no representative attended the meeting. The group called upon the EU to step up and ensure the Ankara-Brussels agreement in 2016 on returning migrants is upheld. They also talked about how the Ukraine war will increase the number of migrants fleeing to Europe as things escalate there. The group also called for a holistic approach to dealing with the migration crisis and for other EU members to help with the same. (“MED 5 calls for more EU
support fearing a possible migration spike due to Ukraine war”, Euronews, 08 October 2022)
 
Albanian gang caught smuggling migrants 
On 08 October, Spanish police caught members of a gang accused of smuggling Albanian migrants. They were said to be smuggling them to the UK through the channel from Spain. This was a joint mission with the help of the British National Crime Agency. It is suspected that they have been smuggling migrants since 2014 and the total amount of migrants is unknown. They were collecting payment between EUR 3,000 and EUR 15,000 for the journey from Albania to the UK through Spain. (“Spain arrests Albanian ganginvolved in smuggling migrants to UK”, Reuters, 08 October 2022
 
INTERNATIONAL
Biden signs new executive order for transatlantic data-privacy partnership with the EU
On 07 October, the US President Joe Biden announced the establishment of the Data Privacy Framework collaboration between the US and the EU. Through the executive order, the party will ensure to set-up a legal basis for the “data flow,” and strengthen the existing privacy and civil liberties especially for US intelligence. As part of the transatlantic partnership, individuals of both countries will be allowed to seek redressal if they think the personal data was collected in any violation to the US laws. This deemed to benefit the small business enterprises which heavily depend on the “cross border” information to increase their participation in the digital economy and enlarge their economic landscape. (“FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order to Implement the European Union-U.S. Data Privacy Framework,” The White House, 07October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 227 & 228 
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 09 September, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the continued strike in Zaporizhzhia. In the report, close to 49 were injured and 17 were dead. The attack is seen in response to the missile strike on the Crimean bridge.

On 08 September, the Head of the National Police of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, in a statement announced that about 20 bodies, including that of children, civilians and Ukraine’s servicemen were dug out in Lyman of Donetsk region. The newly discovered site stretches 40 meters long, where the victims were buried in a single grave. Some had plaques about information about the deceased, but most of the bodies were unidentified. The Police have taken biological samples to identify the nameless bodies and determine the cause of their death.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 October, RT reported on the Russia’s Federal Security Service report on the attacks on the Crimean Bridge on 08 October. According to the national Investigative Committee of Russia, Head, Aleksandr Bastrykin claimed that Ukrainian Security Services with the help of Russian had demonstrated the attack targeting its “critical infrastructure.” On the damages, Bastrykin reported that the explosion caused an obstruction to both road and railway and stated that it was resumed the same evening. On the same Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said: “It was ordered, planned and carried out by the Ukrainian security services.”
 
On 08 October, Putin called the Crimean Bridge attack as an “Act of terrorism.” Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin was instructed to set up a government commission to investigate the incident. As per Putin's instruction, the Transport Minister and the Emergency Minister of Russia have left for the Kerch Bridge to inspect and till now no party has taken responsibility for the explosion. RT claims Ukraine to be responsible for the attack.

On 08 August, Russia appointed a new general to lead the Ukraine offensive. General Sergei Surovikin has combat experience in the 1990 conflicts in Tajikistan and Chechnya and also served terms in Syria where Russia intervened in 2015. The new appointment coincides with several setbacks for Russia with Ukraine mounting a rapid counteroffensive in Kharkiv, and the explosion damaging major parts of the Kerch Bridge. Surovikin is known to be a tougher general than his predecessor Army General Alexander Dvornikov and is expected to revitalize Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.

On 08 October, Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov spoke about the sanctions and economic measures taken by the West. He said that Russia's response to the "economic aggression" had been restrained. He also added that the sanctions have failed to affect Russia’s economy adversely, and had backfired on the West, initiating high inflation and energy shortages. Lavrov mentioned that to deal with the western measures, Russia would strengthen its “economic and technological sovereignty” with states in Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East, and thus establish “alternative financial and logistical chains to facilitate foreign trade.” On 07 September, the Head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov announced the joining of the additional 70,000. Kadyrov expressed his solidarity for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 09 October, the UK Intelligence provided an update on the Kerch Strait Bridge damage. In the report, it stated how the bridge serves as a link to Crimea and Krasnodar in Russia. It estimated two roadways to have collapsed, the damage to rail line is unclear but it stated that any dent to the rail capacity will hinder Russia’s ability to maintain its forces in Southern Ukraine.
 
On 09 October, a Bloomberg delved into the success of Ukraine’s army, against Russia’s troops who are expected to be a stronger force. The primary reasons behind Ukraine’s success are modern weapons provided to Ukraine by its allies, along with military training, more cohesive and efficient command structure, better planning and intelligence aid which helps in better strategy formation.
 
On 08 October, Reuters reported that the UK has rejected Russia’s call for a secret ballot in the UN General Assembly. The vote is to condemn Russia’s “illegal so-called referenda” in DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that the international community has denounced. Moreover, the UK has urged the 193-member body to vote publicly, instead of on a secret ballot. Citing rule 87b of the Charter, Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said: "To conduct a secret ballot on a General Assembly decision would go against decades of precedent and undermine the practices of the world's most representative deliberative body." The vote has been scheduled for 11 October 2022. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 09 October, Kyrgyzstan independently cancelled joint military drills amid the six nations of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), less than 24 hours before it started. While the Kyrgyz Defence Ministry did not state a reason for the abandonment of the exercises, these drills were meant to involve army personnel from CSTO members, including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and centre itself on securing ceasefires. This decision has indicated the increasing tensions within the alliance with Aremina skipping a two-week drill in Kazakhstan, criticising the CSTO for failing to support the country in its fighting with Azerbaijan. Russia and the CSTO countries turned down Armenia’s request for military aid and limited their response to sending fact-finding missions to the border.

On 08 October, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Head, Mariano Grossi informed that because of renewed shelling near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) facility, it has lost its last remaining power sources. It was relying on emergency diesel generators for “essential nuclear safety and security functions.” The generators are being used to cool and conduct safety operations for the nuclear reactors to prevent a meltdown. The 750-kilovolt power line was cut because of the continued attacks and engineers are trying to repair the damages it has sustained.

On 07 October, the IMF executive board approved additional aid of USD 1.3 billion to Ukraine under the food shock window Rapid Financing Instrument. The new disbursement will assist Ukraine in meeting their balance of payment needs. The press release by the IMF announcing the new aid appreciated Ukraine for being able to maintain micro-financial stability while dealing with a war. The IMF also announced that in collaboration with Ukrainian authorities, it will initiate discussion on Program Monitoring with Board involvement (PMB), to provide strong macroeconomic policies, catalyze donor support and facilitate easier access to its loans.

References
First 20 bodies exhumed in Lyman, children among them,” Ukrinform, 09 October 2022
Instructions pertaining to emergency situation on Crimean Bridge,” kremlin.ru, 08 October 2022
Crimean Bridge explosion: What we know so far,” RT, 08 October 2022
Russia Names New General to Lead Ukraine Offensive After Setbacks,” The Moscow Times, 08 October 2022
Russia warns West over ‘economic aggression’,” RT, 08 October 2022
Ukraine behind terrorist attack on Crimean Bridge – Putin,” RT, 08 October 2022
“Russia is firm about its measures in regard to Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions,” TASS, 08 October 2022
Additional 70,000 Chechen fighters ready to join the special military operation — Kadyrov,” TASS, 08 October 2022
UK Intelligence Update,” Ministry of Defence of the UK, 09 October 2022
Marc Champion, “Eight Years of Combat Hardened Ukraine’s Army Into a Fighting Force,” Bloomberg, 09 October 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Britain slaps down Russia's push for secret U.N. vote on Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 October 2022
Kyrgyzstan cancels Russian-led military drill on its land,” AP News, 09 October 2022
Samuel Stolton, “Ukraine nuclear plant loses external power amid ongoing shelling,” POLITICO, 08 October 2022
IMF Executive Board Approves US$ 1.3 Billion in Emergency Financing Support to Ukraine,” imf.org, 07 October 2022


08 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #327

Latvia Elections 2022: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 226

Photo : Wikimedia


EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan

Latvia Elections 2022: Three takeaways
On 02 October, the New Unity party was declared winner by the Central Election Commission upon the majority of votes in the Saeima elections. On 01 October, 14th parliamentary elections were held in Latvia to elect the leader and the Members of Parliament. In total 19 political parties competed in the election with at least 1800 candidates running for four-year term, out of 1800, 100 members will be elected by the people. The parties include, New Unity, Union of Greens and Farmers, National Alliance, Socialist Democratic Party “Harmony” and United List are some of the parties contesting the election.
 
Election results
For a party to become a member of the Saeima should have more than five per cent of the total vote share. The results announced by the Central Election Commission showed the vote share of the parties, the New Unity led by Krišjānis Kariņš won the most with 18.97 per cent, which had received only 6.7 per cent in 2018. The Union of Greens and Farmers led by Armands Krauze increased to 12.44 per cent from 9.9 per cent in 2018, posing as the opposition party. In the third place, the United List received 11.01 per cent, which did not exist in the 2018 elections. Followed by National Alliance with 9.29 per cent, For Stability! with 6.8 per cent, Latvia First with 6.24 per cent, and Progressives with 6.16 per cent. The Socialist Democratic Party “Harmony,” The Conservatives, Development/For! and National Alliance who topped the 2018 elections, were observed to have lost their majority to the newer parties. Especially Harmony which is a party that represents Latvia’s ethnic Russian minority that had received 20 per cent of votes in 2018 but has declined to seven per cent in 2022.
 
Three takeaways
First, political stability to continue. The centre-right party of Karins has proved its ability to manage the COVID-19, stand against Russia and most importantly held the coalition of National Alliance, the Conservatives and Development/For! along with other small parties together for full four years without preventing the split like the previous governments. With the party’s win, Latvia’s political stability and support for Ukraine is expected to remain intact.
 
Second, decline of the social democratic party. The Harmony party which consists of Russian speaking minority has seen an abnormal shift down due to growing support for Ukraine, and the New Unity’s coalition success in ensuring safety for Latvia from Russia through closer engagement with NATO crumbled the vote share for Harmony.
 
Third, an advantage for the EU and NATO. In the 2022 elections occurring across Europe, the right-wing parties are observed to be on the rise in case of France, Sweden, and Italy posing a threat to the unity of the EU. Latvia will be an exception and a relief with the centre-right winning the elections. The New Unity coalition in place means a boon for NATO to continue its military cooperation in the Baltic Sea and for the EU to implement its sanction. Winning of Harmony in Latvia would not only shun this down but could have threated the Baltic posture against Russia.
 
References
All votes counted; seven lists make it into the Saeima”, eng.lsm.lv, 02 October 2022 
Latvian premier's center-right party wins national election,” The Washington Post, 02 October 2022
Latvia: Exit polls put PM's New Unity party ahead in vote amid Ukraine war and soaring inflation”, Euronews, 01 October 2022
Latvia — 2022 general election”, POLITICO
14th Saeima elections”, cvk.lv
Factbox: Latvia's parliamentary election: parties, coalitions”, Reuters, 30 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

ITALY
Italy’s outgoing government announced new LGBTQ strategy
On 07 October, Equal Opportunities Minister Elena Bonetti of the outgoing government announced a new strategy to counter discrimination against LGBTQ. The move is seen as tactical as the new government of Georgia Meloni will be coming into position soon. Brothers of Italy party has been against the LGBTQ and gender fluidness since it’s evolution, considering the threats the community might challenge, the outgoing government has taken the step. The new strategy 2022-2025 proposed “specific anti-LGBTQ discrimination clauses” into the state’s labour agreement. In la Republica (Italy daily) Bonetti said: “The strategy makes rights concrete with a series of actions against violence and marginalization.” (“Italy adopts new LGBTQ rights plan before right-wing takeover,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2022)

THE UK
Continuing transport worker strike stalls local travel
On 08 October, BBC reported on the ongoing rail worker strike in the UK. Close to 40,000 rail, maritime, and transport employees part of 15 unions have stepped out against demands on increase of pay, and job conditions. With only five train services running, the government has instructed the people to restrict travel and have announced that only on return of the workers the services are expected to resume. Similar strikes were held under the RMT, TSSA and drivers' unions which closed down 90 per cent of services in the previous week. (“Rail strikes: Only one in five trains running in latest action,” BBC, 08 October 2022)

REGIONAL
NATO-UK conduct Joint Warrior maritime exercise in North Sea
On 07 October, NATO reported on the “Joint Warrior” bi-annual exercise held along with UK in the North Sea. The exercise is scheduled from 01 to 12 October using 45 ships, 30 aircrafts, submarines, crew and naval forces. European member-states including Denmark, France’s FS Somme, German Navy FGS Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Italy, Latvia, Royal Netherlands Navy flagship HNLMS Tromp, Norway’s HNoMS Roald Amundsen and auxiliary vessel HNoMS Maud, Poland, and the US from the trans-Atlantic took part in the exercise. The exercise mainly aimed at improving the maritime capabilities in case of multi-threat scenario, protection against ground and air attacks, and involved experimentation of unmanned systems. (“NATO Ships Participate In UK Exercise Joint Warrior 22-2nato.int07 October 2022)

NATO on including gender in military spectrum
On 07 October, the NATO reported on the proceedings of the gender inclusivity session held during the committee meeting. Lieutenant-Colonel Diana Morais stated the reasons to integrate gender into the NATO and outlined the steps taken by NATO to bring gender inclusivity in the military spectrum. According to Morais, including of gender in terms of analysis, and planning process helps in improving the understanding of the society and to detect threats. Therefore, it was key in recruiting both men and women into the allied armed forces. Till now NATO has used education and training, leadership development, and recognition of resources as aspects to integrate the gender perspective. (“The people behind the policies: integrating gender perspectives into the military,” nato.int07 October 2022)

EU to send mission to smoothen the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
On 07 October, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan settled on EU’s decision to send its mission in the border region between both countries. The agreement was negotiated in the European Political Community meeting in Prague. EU’s plan on sending mission is aimed at reducing Russia’s influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, bring confidence between both, and install border cooperations. (“Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to EU mission along their border,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 226
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 06 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the IAEA, Director General Rafael Grossi. He thanked Grossi for coordinating the release of the Director General of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) Ihor Murashov, who remained in capture with the Russia’s forces. Grossi said that the decision by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to consider the ZNPP to be under Russia’s ownership was a violation of international law. He added that the IAEA will mediate the situation.

On 06 October, Zelenskyy also mentioned that since 01 October, more than 500 square kilometers of territory in the Kherson region have been deoccupied from Russian control. On 07 October, Ukraine’s Operational Command South, Head, Natalia Humeniuk confirmed the same on the freeing of 29 settlements. In Kharkiv, Ukrainian police provided an update about the evidences of torture found in Kharkiv. According to the head of the investigative department, bodies of 266 women and 19 children were found.

On the same day, Ukraine spokesperson Kyrylo Tymoshenko took part in the "Ukraine During the War, Economy, Security, Energy, Recovery Prospects" conference in Warsaw. Citing inadequate funds, Tymoshenko called for further financial help and emphasized the need to hasten the reconstruction of infrastructure in Ukraine as a part of the “Fast Recovery Plan,” so that Ukrainians can return home from evacuation.

On 07 October, Kyiv Post reported that many Ukrainian soldiers who were a part of the Azov Regiment were giving statements about the torture they faced while in Russian captivity. They gave statements to government investigators for future prosecutions, if the Russian army and officials should be tried for war crimes. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

The Deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Chernyshenko attended a meeting regarding the partial conscription. He announced a new scheme, where Russian women willing to participate in the operation in Ukraine could be sent to work in hospitals or as volunteers. However, he added that while women could volunteer; it was not necessary for them to be part of the reservist force.

On 07 October, Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov responded to Zelenskyy's comment about a “pre-emptive strike on Russia.” Lavrov said that the comment further warranted Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Speaking at Russia's party commission, he pointed out that Ukraine's request for nuclear weapons strengthened the justification for Russia's invasion. He said: "We cannot turn a blind eye to the reckless actions of the Kiev regime which are aimed at creating risks of using various kinds of weapons of mass destruction." Lavrov also criticized, Ukraine was stockpiling illegitimate military-biological weapons and criticized the move.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 September, Germany reported on the total number of Ukrainian refugees who accounted more than one million. The Interior Minister expressed the growing difficulty in accommodating the refugee influx.

On 07 October, US President Joe Biden made stark comments about the renewal of the nuclear debate. He said that the world would face an "Armageddon" if Putin went through with his threat of using tactical nuclear weapons. He invoked the example of the Cuban Missile Crisis and said: “We have the threat of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going… He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”

On 06 October, AP News reported on two different economic futures given by the managing director of International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva and the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Georgieva said that the economic outlook of the world is likely to get worse before it gets better, as recession rates are rising. She also said that due to the Ukraine war and the remnant fallouts of the COVID-19 the current economic environment was going through a “period of historic fragility.” Yellen said that the US was now focusing on making longer-term investments to bolster the global economy. She also promoted ambitious policy solutions. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 07 October, Japan’s Cabinet approved a new set of sanctions for Russia, after its annexation of four regions in Ukraine. On this issue, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Seiji said that the referendums are a violation of international law and infringe on Ukraine’s sovereignty. As per the new sanctions, 81 additional people and nine more organizations will be added to the list of those whose assets will be frozen. 
 
Also on 07 October, the UN Human Rights Council approved a motion to appoint a new expert to examine the alleged human rights violations by Russia in Ukraine. Accusing Russia of installing a "climate of fear," 17 members of the UN body voted in favor, six members voted against it while 24 abstained. The motion marks the first time that the UNHRC has appointed a Special Rapporteur to examine the rights record of a permanent member of the UNSC.
 
On 07 October, the Nobel Peace Prize for 2022 was announced. Jailed Belarusian activist Ales Byalyatski, Russian rights group Memorial and Ukraine's Centre for Civil Liberties won the award. This year’s recipients can be viewed as a criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is in line with the Nobel prizes awarded during the Cold War era, when Soviet dissidents Andrei Sakharov and Alexander Solzhenitsyn won for peace or literature. Norway’s Nobel Committee chair Berit Reiss-Andersen said: “We believe that it is a war that is a result of an authoritarian regime, aggressively committing an act of aggression,” and thus the prize had been given to “three outstanding champions of human rights, democracy and peaceful co-existence.”

References
Jay Beecher, “UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Heads to Kyiv for Talks,” Kyiv Post, 06 October, 2022
President discussed safety issues at the Zaporizhzhia NPP with the Director General of the IAEA,” president.gov.ua06 October 2022
Since the beginning of October, more than half a thousand square kilometers have been liberated from the Russian occupiers in the Kherson region alone - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua06 October 2022
Russia Pummels South With Strikes as Zelensky Heralds Ukrainian Advances,” The New York Times, 07 October, 2022
Armed Forces of Ukraine liberate 29 settlements in Kherson region,” Ukrinform, 07 October 2022
Kyrylo Tymoshenko takes part in "Ukraine During the War. Economy. Security. Energy. Recovery Prospects" conference in Warsaw,” president.gov.ua07 October 2022
In Russia, they proposed a mechanism for attracting women to participate in a special operation,” LENTA.RU, 07 October 2022
Kiev’s bipolar rhetoric on nukes approved by West, diplomat says,” TASS, 07 October 2022
Lavrov: Zelensky’s preemptive strike on Russia remark justifies need for special operation,” TASS,  07 October 2022
Erdogan and Putin discuss improving ties, ending Ukraine war: Erdogan’s office,” Alarabiya News, 07 October 2022
Julian Borger, “Biden warns world would face ‘Armageddon’ if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 07 October 2022
Fatima Hussein “IMF warns of higher recession risk and darker global outlook,” AP News, 06 October 2022
Latvia supports Ukraine's accession to EU and NATO - Karins,” The Baltic Times, 07 October 2022
Japan's Cabinet decides to impose more sanctions on Russia,” nhk.or.jp07 October 2022
Emma Farge, “UN body votes to establish Russia human rights investigator, Moscow protests,” Reuters, 08 October 2022
Nora Buli and Gwladys Fouche “In echo of Cold War, Nobel Peace Prize goes to Ukraine, Russia, Belarus rights campaigners,” Reuters, 07 October 2022


07 October 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #326

EU’s eight package of sanctions on Russia: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 225

Photo : Stephanie Lecocq/EPA-EFE/POLITICO


EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan

EU’s eight package of sanctions on Russia: Three takeaways
On 06 October, the European Commission released a statement on the eight package of sanctions imposed on Russia. The move was triggered after the signing of the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine. The key target of the package are the individual entities helping Russia and to isolate Russia’s economy, deteriorate its military capacity, and technologies.

Three takeaways
First, narrowed energy price cap. The European Commission ruled the ban to import Russian oil through tankers from 05 December 2022 to 05 February 2023. It will be applicable to only the EU member states along with the G7 countries, leaving out Russia. In case of Greece, Cyprus and Malta which are known for having huge tanker shipping, will be allowed to transport, but under the given price cap. The rule will also apply to the EU ships operating overseas in Panama or Liberia to abide by the price limit. Although the price is yet to be finalised, it is expected that it would not be lesser than the amount before the invasion began. Another issue is Balkan states and Serbia which does not have a seaport, imports Russian oil through Croatia, the EU is yet be decide if it can allow the exports. However, oil exported through pipeline will not be come under the price cap, this is beneficial especially for Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Second, specific target on individual entities that help Russia in oil exports. The entities subject to the sanctions include state-owned enterprises, IT Consultancies, financial firms and other Businesses. Any enterprise transacting with “Russian Maritime Register,” in form of crypto-assets, consultancy, legal advisory, engineering any services that add capacity to Russia’s industrial ability. In the earlier sanctions, up to 10,000 EUR was allowed for the companies, but with the latest package, a complete ban has been imposed on such services, which are most relied by Russia.

Third, extended import and export restrictions product list. The previous sanction packages of the EU have also targeted Russia’s military, industry components, but the eight package furthers the list of products included in the ban list. It has included, specific electronic components used by Russia in its industrial units, aviation and small arms under the export restrictions. Under the import ban, it has now included semi-finished steel products, “…appliances, plastics, vehicles, textiles, footwear, leather, ceramics, certain chemical products, and non-gold jewellery.”

References
Ukraine: EU agrees on eighth package of sanctions against Russia,” ec.europa.eu, 06 October 2022
EU aims at Kremlin's revenues with cap on Russian oil price,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022
Russia's war on Ukraine: EU adopts sixth package of sanctions against Russia,” ec.europa.eu, 03 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
Annie Ernaux becomes France’s first female Nobel laureate for literature
On 06 October, the Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize in literature to French author Annie Ernaux, who won the accolade for her “courage and clinical acuity" in her books. Ernaux’s books are mostly autobiographical and address the various disparities and discrimination arising out of gender, language and class. The 82-year-old author calls writing a political act which elucidates social inequality. Ernaux’s first novel came out in 1974 called “Les Amores Vides,” but she gained wider recognition after “Les Annes” was published in 2008 and translated to “The Years” in English in 2017. applauded the author and said: “she uses language as 'a knife', as she calls it, to tear apart the veils of imagination.” (By Justyna Pawlak, Simon Johnson and Elizabeth Pineau, “France's Ernaux, who long scrutinised self, wins Nobel literature prize,” Reuters, 07 October 2022)

GERMANY
Germany to interrogate the people linked to IS from Syria
On 05 October, Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock announced the deportation of 12 people with connections to the Islamic State from Syria. The group includes one man, four women, and seven children, who had been staying in the Roj camp in Northeast Syria, under Kurdish control. The five adults will be subject to detainment and questions upon reaching Germany. However, Baerbock mentioned that she was especially relieved about the repatriation of the children, as they were innocent and “victims of IS.” Till now 26 women and 76 children suspected to have links with the IS, have been repatriated from Syria, and some amongst them have been tried and jailed for the war. (“Germany repatriates 12 IS-linked citizens from Syria,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022)

Six German Parliamentarians visit Taiwan to further bilateral ties
On 06 October, six parliamentarians from Bundestag concluded a five-day visit which focused on to further bilateral ties with Taiwan. The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) emphasized that the visit, was an effort to better relations between the two parliaments than reflecting the official position of the German government or the Foreign Ministry. Representatives from Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party and Free Democratic Party (FDP) were also part of the delegation. The parliamentarians of Germany and China both the countries talked about ways to address common problems like housing shortages, scientific challenges, trade, and energy dependency. Marking the first German visit since 2019, this delegation marks the first of the upcoming bilateral meetings between the two countries. In the next few weeks, the Bundestag's Human Rights Committee is expected to visit Taipei, followed by a delegation of young parliamentarians in 2023. (Jon Shelton, “German lawmakers call for deeper ties with Taiwan,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022)

HUNGARY
Viktor Orban faces largest anti-government protests since re-election in April
On 05 April, people gathered in Budapest to protest against the working conditions for teachers in Hungary. The demonstrations, grew to be the biggest anti-government protests since Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s re-election in April. It started with students forming a chain across Budapest, stretching for kilometres due to the mass firing of teachers from their posts. One of the campaign signs read as “I want to teach” to demand better working conditions and higher wages for teachers. However, the government stated that the teacher’s demands can be only met once the EU COVID-19 recovery funds are released. (“Large Demonstration In Budapest Demands Better Conditions For Teachers,” rferl.org, 06 October 2022)

NORTHERN IRELAND
Negotiation  over implementation of Northern Ireland Protocol prolongs till 28 October
On 06 October, the EU and the UK held talks about the Northern Ireland Protocol via a video link. In the meeting, a timetable for further negotiations was decided on, and UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly pledged his commitment to work with Ireland on the Protocol. On the same issue, Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said that the meeting would concentrate on the identifying the issues where negotiations can be conducted “sooner rather than later.” However, he mentioned that progress on implementation of the protocol was unlikely before 28 October, after which the Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is obligated to set a date for a fresh Stormont election. (Jayne McCormack, “NI Protocol dispute will not be resolved by 28 October, says Coveney,” BBC, 07 October 2022)
 
THE NETHERLANDS
Migration facilities court-ordered to provide better living conditions
On 06 October, Netherlands civil court announced the order on a case brought in by the Dutch Council for Refugees regarding the inhuman conditions of the immigration and asylum facilities. The case was lodged after over 700 immigrants had to sleep outside while their paperwork were being processed. The situation at the Ter Apel migration facility also led to the first deployment of a Doctors Without Borders delegation to the country. Now, the court has found that the condition at the facility did not meet basic European standards in terms of hygiene and sanitation and has ordered the government to ensure that all migration facilities across the country provide “..a safe, covered place to sleep, food, water and access to hygienic sanitary facility… immediately.” The chairman of the Dutch Council for Refugees, Frank Candel said that while the court’s decision was a step forward, it was disappointing that provision of basic humane conditions had to be court ordered. He said: “We will not rest as long as asylum-seekers have to sleep in a tent, gym, or event hall.” (“Dutch court orders government to clean up inhumane immigration centers,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022)

REGIONAL
European Parliament Members vote for resolution supporting protests in Iran following Amini’s death
On 06 October, the Members of the European Parliament voted in favour of a resolution condemning the death Mahsa Amini, after her arrest, abuse, and torture by Iran’s ‘morality’ police. The text supports the peaceful protests organized across Iran and also suggests sanctions on officials involved in the crackdown against these protestors. So far, over 100 people protesting against the treatment of Amini have been killed. The text was adopted by a show of hands thus leaving no official record for how many MEPs voted in favour but the chair of the Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iran, Cornelia Ernst said that the ‘vast majority’ agreed to the text. After the votes, in a statement, she said: “Human rights are not negotiable. The longing for a free and democratic Iran is gripping more and more people in Iran. The European Parliament stands by their side.” On 05 October, in protest of the same, Iraq-born Swedish MEP Abir Al-Sahlani cut her hair in the Parliament in a show of solidarity with Iran, where, many women have been staging similar protests. (Wilhelmine Preussen, “EU Parliament slams Iran over repression of women’s rights protesters,” POLITICO, 06 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 225
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 06 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his video address in the European Political Community meeting in Prague, stressed on the need for more weapons for Ukraine to win the war against Russia. He also urged to intensify the sanctions by the international community. In the meeting, close to 44 countries expressed their support to Ukraine in the war.
 
On the same day, the chief of the joint coordination press centre of Ukraine’s Operational Command South Natalia Humeniuk gave an update on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region. At a press briefing, she updated that to date the Armed Forces have freed more than 400 square kilometres from Russian hold. Without giving any specific direction, Humeniuk said that the Forces are moving further to liberate more parts of the region. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 October, Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported on the gains of the Russian armed forces over the Ukrainian armed forces. As per the report, eight Ukrainian command forces were targeted and destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces in a joint effort by the combat aircraft, missile and artillery troops. The attack also destroyed military equipment, 63 artillery units at firing positions and Ukrainian manpower in 173 areas. 
 
On 06 October, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Kiev of attacking the people in the annexed regions. Zakharova is of the view that Kiev’s attacking the civilians due to their decision to become a part of Russia. She also doubled down on Russia’s commitment to protect these regions and restore normality in these regions and continue its rebuilding efforts. She also mentioned about a proposal sent to the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This was a broad proposal for a peace treaty between the two countries. The details of the proposals were not revealed as Russia believes it to be a sensitive topic.
 
On 06 October, the Joint Ceasefire Coordination and Control Center’s (JCCC) mission to LPR released its report on the damage caused by Ukrainian aggression in this region. The report stated that 101 people had died and 314 wounded since 17 February in LPR when the Ukrainian aggression began. Additionally, seven children died and 27 more were wounded due to shelling. They also report that 2,950 houses and 273 civilian infrastructures have been damaged. The mission said that "In total, the enemy used over 10,000 munitions of various calibers, including Tochka-U tactical missiles (37 rockets) and US-made HIMARS (348 rockets), multiple launch rocket systems (BM-21 Grad, BM-27 Uragan, BM-30 Smerch): 2,497 shells, artillery guns of 155 mm (69 shells)." 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 October, the Head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) Samantha Power announced additional funding of USD 55 million to aid in repairing necessary infrastructure to provide heating to hospitals, schools, homes and businesses in Ukraine. Apart from this USIAD will also provide power generators and fuel sources to give the Ukrainians access to warm shelter. The aid is also expected to help centres for internally-displaced persons, and shelters for socially vulnerable citizens to bear the winter. 
 
On 06 October, BBC reported on the increasing reliance and importance of space in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. The head of the US Space Force, General Jay Raymond told BBC in an interview about how this is the first major conflict in which commercial space infrastructure has been used by both sides. Ukraine despite not having any commercial satellites, has been helped by its allies with information regarding Russian military movement and warnings of any attack by them. Space has helped both sides in providing information, restoring communication and in precision attacks by weapons. UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radkin has expressed concerns about a possible space front war. This was also echoed by General Raymond who outlined the possibilities of a ground strike on space infrastructure and that such a possibility opens doors for space militarization. 
 
On 06 October, the first-ever meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) in Prague. An initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron was introduced right after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. Composed of 44 members, Macron hopes that the EPC will be instrumental in bringing the European continent together and protecting the security of Europe. In a press conference after the summit Macron told the reporters, "We have very clearly displayed the unity of 44 European leaders in condemning Russian aggression and expressing support for Ukraine." The same sentiment was echoed by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki who said that "This summit confirms that Russia is in complete isolation." 
 
On the same day, Sweden cleared three ports in the north of the country for Russian fishing vessels. The Foreign Ministry announced that Kirkenes, Troms and Botsfjord ports will be the only ports where Russian fishing vessels can dock. They also added that on arrival the ships will be checked before being allowed to dock.    
 
On 05 October, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz discussed closer cooperation specifically on energy and security issues during their first meet in nine years. Later the two countries emphasised the importance of expanding the interconnection capacity of the Iberian Peninsula to deliver energy to the continent. This includes the connectivity of electricity and gas between countries. On the same day, Sánchez called on French President Emmanuel Macron to adhere to his promise to the EU of increasing the expansion of the electricity and electricity grid. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 06 October, the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva said that the IMF will be decreasing its projections for the global growth rate. In a talk at Georgetown University, she said that the projection for global economic growth was decreased by USD four trillion through 2026. The reason for this decrease was the Russia-Ukraine crisis which led the IMF to reconsider its projections back in February 2022. The official figures for global growth for 2022 stand at 3.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent for 2023. This comes before the yearly meeting of the IMF and the World Bank next week. 
 
On 06 October, Reuters reported on the ground situation of Russians in Kazakhstan. With a sudden influx of people, money and job troubles are being experienced by the Russians. The locals have seen an increase in housing costs, causing many to leave their homes and seek alternative options. There also has been an increasing concern about a security risk expressed by the Kazakhs with respect to the Russians. They are being called “draft dodgers” as they have only entered the country to flee the military conscriptions. Kazakh politician Mukhtar Taizhan expressed his fear that "Tomorrow, they might unite into a group, start demanding something here," and "This might turn into a concern for our security and, God forbid, territorial integrity."      

On 05 October, Reuters reported that Russia is urging a secret ballot when the UNGA will meet next week. After the West failed to pass a resolution condemning the annexation of four Ukrainian territories in the UNSC, the matter is now being put forth in the UNGA. Russia is looking for a secret ballot to prevent lines from being drawn due to Western lobbying. The 193-member body will be voting on the same before the resolution is presented.   

References
Zelensky: If world's reaction is weak now, Russia will come up with some new escalation”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022 
Russia already used 86 kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine, 60% of them downed - General Staff ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022  
Mohajer-606, two Shahed-136 drones downed in Mykolaiv region ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022  
Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy nine kamikaze drones overnight ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
Ukraine Army liberates over 400 sq km of Kherson region from invaders ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
Russian forces cripple eight command posts in Ukraine operation, top brass reports”, TASS, 06 October 2022 
Diplomat blames Kiev for its malevolence against civilians in new Russian regions”, TASS, 06 October 2022 
Moscow sent comprehensive peace treaty proposals to Baku, Yerevan — diplomat”, TASS, 06 October 2022 
Top lawmaker says Ukrainian parliament members ignored invitation to start talks”, TASS, 06 October 2022 
LPR mission reveals total number of casualties due to Ukrainian shelling since escalation”, TASS, 06 October 2022 
U.S. Announces $55 Million in Assistance to Help Ukraine Prepare for Winter”, Kyiv Post, 06 October 2022
Support continues in Plymouth for those fleeing Ukraine”, BBC, 06 October 2022
Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine”, BBC, 06 October 2022
Europe's new 44-nation club underlines Russia's isolation”, Reuters, 06 October 2022
European Political Community: What we know and don't know about the new club of nations”, euronews, 06 October 2022 
Spain and Germany strengthen alliance, pressure France on gas interconnector”, Euractiv, 06 October 2022 
Spanish PM urges Macron to honour his commitment to gas interconnections”, Euractiv, 06 October 2022 
The Swedish Foreign Ministry named the ports available for Russian ships”, LENTA.RU, 06 October 2022
IMF warns of higher recession risk and darker global outlook”, AP News, 06 October 2022
Russians fleeing war call-up face new stresses on arrival in Kazakhstan”, Reuters, 06 October 2022
Russia wants secret U.N. vote on move to condemn 'annexation' of Ukraine regions”, Reuters, 06 October 2022


06 October 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #325

War in Ukraine: Day 224 | EU member states approve energy price cap on Russia

The EU allocates EUR 170 million to update rescEU fleet; The UK goes ahead with the Rwanda Plan; Denmark holds election in November

Photo : Gaetano Adriano Pulvirenti/AP/Euronews


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

DENMARK
Elections to be held ahead in November 
On 05 October, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced fresh elections for 01 November 2022. Seven months before her term ends, Denmark is going to the polls to elect the members of the Folketing. With 179 seats up for grabs, opinion polls project that the ruling party and the opposition are neck-to-neck which feeds into Frederiksen’s reason for calling an early election. She has previously worked with the opposition to navigate the pandemic and recently in the case of increasing Denmark’s defence expenditure. The decision to call for early elections comes after a Parliament-appointed commission criticised the government’s move to cull millions of healthy minks during the pandemic. The government defended itself by saying that it was to reduce the risk of virus mutation. When the early elections were announced, Frederiksen hoped that the new government will include members of the current opposition party for a diverse diaspora to help tackle various issues. (“As support sags, Danish prime minister calls Nov. 1 election,” AP News, 05 October 2022)

THE UK
Migrants to be deported under the Rwanda Plan despite court intervention
On 05 October, Home Secretary Suella Braveman assured the conservative party that the Rwanda Plan is still on. The plan consists of deporting illegal migrants crossing the English Channel to Rwanda if they do not return back to their home country. The European Court of Human Rights intervened in June to stop the first flight from taking off. Braveman said that the plan needs to work in order to deter migrants from crossing the English Channel. The latest records show that 33,500 people have entered the UK through the Channel this year. Braveman hopes that this will act as a deterrent to stop illegal migrants from taking advantage of the Modern Slavery Act. (“Home Secretary Suella Braverman to change law to stop channel migrants,” BBC, 05 October 2022)

REGIONAL
European Commission to update the rescEU fleet  
On 05 October, the European Commission proposed an expansion to the rescEU fleet and make it more efficient. It is looking to allocate EUR 170 million from the EU budget to strengthen the fleet from 2023. It is looking to expand the ground and aerial assets to a total of 22 planes, four helicopters and more ground support. The Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez  Lenarčič explained how this year’s wildfire showed the unpreparedness of the rescEU fleet to deal with the emerging climate crises. The injection is expected to lead to a faster response at multiple places at once. (“Forest fires: €170 million to reinforce rescEU fleet,” ec.europa.eu, 05 October 2022)

The gas price cap is a temporary measure says Ursula
On 05 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her speech at the European parliament said that a price cap will only be a temporary solution. LNG, which is an alternative source of energy for Europe is comparatively costlier alternative. Von der Leyen is expected to introduce a new EU price index, a proposal on the same will be sent to heads of states of EU members before the 07 October summit. This is a proposal would reduce the price of electricity and a wider measure to improve the electricity market. The President also introduced more funds under the REPowerEU plan for members to access to increase investment in energy infrastructure. There was also a plea from von der Leyen to not rush to stock up on gas which led to a global increase in price through a bidding situation. (“EU chief open to gas price cap as ‘temporary solution’ to energy crisis,” EURACTIV, 05 October 2022)

Moroccans dissent against visa policies
On 04 October, a group of Moroccans led a demonstration outside the European Union’s Office in Rabat against the “racist” and “humiliating” handling of visa applications, targeting France. One of the protestors said that, the visa applicants are subject to rejection, without having any right to ask for justification for the rejection, or face refusal for a refund of processing fees. Pointing out France’s decision to limit the number of visas provided to Moroccans and Algerians by half, activists protesting against this have said that the legitimacy of travel to EU countries is being questioned, and is “unacceptable and unjustified.” Public anger and wide resentment in Morocco and France, have led to a counterclaim by a French official who pronounced that the issue was exaggerated on social media, persisting that the number of student visa issues was similar to 2021. (“Moroccans protest ‘racist’ French, EU visa policies,” EURACTIV, 05 October 2022)

EU’s energy architecture under fire 
On 05 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of the target etched at the EU’s critical infrastructure and announced that the EU should make efficient use of its surveillance satellites to prevent sabotage and destruction. Referring to the wreckage of the Nord stream pipelines and the “vulnerability” of the EU’s energy structure, the president explained the detection of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines that connect Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, and how an inquiry against the issue is underway. Citing that these pipelines were the “lifelines of data and energy” for European citizens and businesses, von der Leyen reiterated that the EU is currently in the process of updating its directive for critical infrastructure would and cover 11 risk areas, which include natural hazards, terrorist attacks, sabotage and public health emergencies. Extending her proposals to impose a curb on the prices of gas used for electricity, she also added that other member states need to reach a consensus on such measures. Addressing Ukraine’s situation and praising its “successes,” the president ended her speech by extending support to Ukraine, asking it to “stay the course.” the EU would be on their side “for as long as it takes.” (“EU infrastructure a 'target' for first time in recent history, says von der Leyen”, euronews, 05 October 2022)
 
SPACE
"EIRSTAT-1" Ireland's first satellite
On 05 October, BBC reported that Ireland's first satellite was ready for launch. EIRSTAT-1 or Educational Irish Research Satellite 1 was built by the University College of Dublin (UCD) and will be launched in the time between mid-January to mid- February. The satellite was built to understand the formation of the universe. It is going to be put into Earth's orbit 520 kilometers from the ground and after its mission, it will return back to UCD. As the first ever satellite being built it has to be recognized by the Irish government and be registered at Educational Irish Research Satellite. (“Ireland's first satellite close to lift off,” BBC, 05 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 224
By Padmashree Anandhan and Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 05 October, the Ukraine Air Force reported on launching more than 10 strikes targeting nine Russian ammunition and military equipment spots. The attacks took place in Kherson, across the Dnieper River and as per their observation, Russia has been “regrouping” in some directions, launching offensives in Bakhmut and Avdiivka and has been struggling to keep up its temporary occupied zones. It also reported on deployment of Iran’s drones, Shahed-129 and Shahed-136 by Russia which do not cost much. This deployment is seen as a way to save its resources to purchase high-precision missiles like Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-555.

On 05 October, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared the capturing back the the villages of Novovoskresenske, Novogrygorivka and Petropavlivka in Kherson region.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 05 October, Russia President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to bring Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant under control of Russia. The order mandates the plant to be run by Russia’s state-owned firms Rosatom. On the same day, Putin remarked over vote results of the referendums where he expressed his surprise over the increased support to join Russia.

On 05 October, Gazprom issued a statement on resuming its gas supplies to Italy. The gas supplies are sent through the Trans Austria Gas Pipeline (TAG) to northern Italy through border of Austria, due to transit issues the supply was paused. Upon regulatory changes the energy has been resumed. The same was confirmed by Eni an Italian energy firm.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 October, the ground advance by Ukraine was confirmed by the UK intelligence. In a statement: “Politically, Russian leaders will highly likely be concerned that leading Ukrainian units are now approaching the borders of Luhansk Oblast, which Russia claimed to have formally annexed last Friday.”

On 05 October, Bulgaria’s Foreign Minister, Nikolay Milkov criticized the statement of the eastern and central European leaders on support to Ukraine joining NATO. He stated that mere expressing of support would not “fast-track” the accession process. President Rumen Radev said: “…decision on Ukraine’s accession to NATO should be made only after the development of clear parameters for the peaceful settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”

On 05 October, Reuters revealed the results of an opinion poll conducted asking Americans if the US should continue to provide military aid to Ukraine despite the Russian nuclear threat or action. The outcome of the poll was that three out of four Americans were of the opinion that the aid should continue. Out of a total of 1,005 respondents, 73 per cent were for the support. This was not just restricted to Democrats, the Republicans also voiced the same view. The poll also revealed that 58 per cent feared that the US and Russia will engage in a nuclear war. 65 per cent are of the view that if Ukraine acquires long-range weapons that can hit Russia the war will escalate. 
 
On 05 October, The Guardian  wrote a piece outlining Australia’s military contribution to Ukraine. Australia at the beginning of the war was called “the largest non-NATO contributor” to Ukraine’s defencethis has now evolved to “one of the largest” as it is becoming tough to authenticate information coming about each nation’s contribution and compare it according to Kiel Institute of military support. They also reported Ukraine’s bid to various allies to “adopt” a region of Ukraine to concentrate all their efforts to help Ukraine rebuild. 
 
On 05 October, EU member nations give their support to the eighth package on sanctions. Proposed by the European Commission on 28 September, which targets to restrict Russia’s income by extending the ban list on Russian imports and EU exports to Russia. This is said to cost Russia EUR seven billion. The other main component of this package is that the EU agreed to a price cap on Russian oil maritime trade. Russia’s main source of income at this juncture is its oil exports. The price cap aims to target the service providers of Russian commercial oil tanks. They are insurance and shipping companies that are largely based in Europe and UK. The main discussion on the price cap was to look into the concerns of Greece, Cyprus and Malta which play an important role in Russian oil transportation to the rest of the world. This proposal will now be addressed by the G7 who will look into the matter in detail and see how it will affect the rest of the world. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 05 October, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi expressed that Iran, Russia and China will be instrumental in opposing the unipolar world order. In an interview with CGTN  Raisi said that through the SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union EAEU and the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) the three nations will be able to create a new power centre that will lead the multipolar world order. 

On 05 October, the OPEC+ announced a uniform cut in the oil production by two million barrels. The cut in the quantity will lead to rise in oil price which can affect in two ways. Deter those energy reliant economies more since they have to afford the high energy prices, two it might give Russia the leverage to earn more thereby increasing the chances to spend more towards war.

References
Ukraine’s Air Force strikes enemy positions over 10 times, Russians suffer losses in south,” Ukrinform, 05 October 2022
Putin ‘surprised’ by referendum results,” RT, 05 October 2022
Putin transfers Europe’s largest nuclear plant to Russian control,” RT, 05 October 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Putin signs laws illegally annexing 4 Ukrainian regions,” Deutsche Welle, 05 October 2022
Three in four Americans say U.S. should support Ukraine despite Russian threats, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows,” Reuters, 05 October 2022
Australia’s military aid to Ukraine has been ramping up – here’s how it compares with other nations,” The Guardian, 05 October 2022
Ukraine war: EU countries agree new sanctions on Russia that includes a price cap on Russian oil,” euronews, 05 October 2022
Tehran, Moscow, Beijing to create new great power — Iranian president,” TASS, 05 October 2022
OPEC+ top oil producers agree to slash production,” Deutsche Welle, 05 October 2022


05 October 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #324

UK Growth Plan: Objectives and reactions | War in Ukraine: Day 223

Photo : AP Photo/Rui Vieira


EM Daily Focus
By Madhura S Mahesh

UK Growth Plan: Objectives and reactions
On 03 October 2022, The Chancellor of Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announced that the government is scrapping the 45 per cent rate of income tax on income over GBP 150,000 tax-cut plan in response to widespread criticism. On 26 September, the pound fell to USD 1.03 as a response to the growth plan announced on 23 September and investors started to demand a high rate of interest.
 
On 23 September, Kwarteng presented to the parliament a Growth Plan to pull up the declining British economy by addressing the issues contributing to it. His speech talked about the importance of lowering energy costs, reducing inflation, helping the public tackle the cost-of-living crisis, and helping businesses. He projected a 2.5 per cent growth rate as the goal and introduced ambitious policies to help the government achieve this.
 
Three objectives of the Growth Plan
The growth plan or the mini budget looked at ways to increase investment in the economy while at the same time helping the people tackle rising energy bills and cost of living. To achieve this the government proposed a series of tax cuts.
 
First, tax cuts. The government proposed to reduce the income tax rate to 19 per cent from April 2023 and to slash the 45 per cent rate of income tax on income above GBP 150,000. A proposal was also put forth to cut the proposed increase of corporation tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent in April 2023. The government included a plan to cut Stamp Duty Land Tax which is paid when people buy new homes. According to Kwarteng, this will encourage the public to invest more in the residential sector, increase spending on household goods and create and help jobs in the property sector. Kwarteng proposed to finance this ambitious plan through borrowings. The Tax cuts proposed will cost the government GBP 72 billion in new borrowings. He did not outline the effect of the tax cuts on borrowings and said that the same will be done in the mid-term November 2023 budget. 
 
Second, energy price cap. The plan proposes to put a price cap on per unit price that people pay for electricity and gas through the Energy Price Guarantee. This will be helping them save GBP 1,000 on energy bills and another GBP 400 through government intervention in winter. It also plans to introduce the Energy Bill Relief Scheme which aims to reduce the energy bills of businesses and the public sector. All of this is to ensure that inflation will reduce by at least five percentage points.
 
Third, improve businesses. Kwarteng emphasised that this is a supply-side budget with plans to increase the supply of industries to meet the growing demand and boost the British economy. He said that the government is looking to set up investment zones in 38 local areas to increase investment and innovations. These zones will offer tax benefits, no stamp duty, and other such incentives to attract investors.

What have been the market, domestic reactions?
First, drop in the value of pound and UK stocks. With the government's plan to increase the number of borrowings, investors became sceptical and as a result, there was a huge drop in UK stocks. At the same time, the value of the pound fell to a 37-year low of USD 1.09 and EUR1.12. These numbers dropped further on 26 September to USD 1.03 and finally to USD 1.08. This led to goods being traded in dollars like oil becoming even more costly and increasing the cost-of-living crisis. This drop in the pound has a direct effect on inflation rates pushing up the prices of commodities in the UK’s economy. 
 
Second, the Bank of England offer to buy bonds. On 28 September, the Bank of England stepped in and announced that it would be buying government bonds to soothe the financial turbulence and keep a check on borrowing interest rates. The interest rates which were set to hit an all-time high of five per cent were reduced to below four per cent by the investors. At the same time, the Bank cautioned that it was a short-term, time-limited step and had plans to sell off all the bonds. The Bank also announced that it will increase the rate of interest if required.
 
Third, internal opposition within party and public. The growth plan drew a lot of criticism within the conservative party, where former Conservative Chancellor Lord Kenneth Clarke expressed his worries that this would risk increasing inflation rates. There is a rising fear that the party will not come into power in 2024 due to these policies. It is viewed that consensus that many ministers will not support the government if it introduces any more reforms to cut welfare benefits to pay for the plan. This led to a divide in the party with Prime Minister Liz Truss loyalists backing the plan and accusing the dissidents of staging a coup and undermining the authority. Domestically there has been an opposite reaction to what the government wanted. Mortgage lenders seeing the fluctuating interest rate have withdrawn a lot of products to re-evaluate the prices. This has created a fear in the public on the affordability factor.

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

GERMANY
Coal used as a short term measure to secure the energy supply
On 04 October, Germany’s energy company RWE made a deal with the government that it would phase out coal by 2030. The energy firm is looking to temporarily increase the production of energy in the lignite-fired power stations, Neurath D and E power plant units to ensure supply security in amidst the ongoing energy crisis. The coal powered power plants which were scheduled to be shutdown by 31 March 2024. To secure the supply of energy, coal usage is increased, but RWE said it would ensure that all the fossil fuel powered energy plants would be closed by 2030. The company looks to reduce the damage done to the environment by using fossil fuels as soon as possible after the short-term usage. 
(“Germany's largest power producer to end coal use by 2030,” Deutsche Welle, 04 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Increase in the number of deportation in the EU states in second quarter of 2022
On 03 October, Eurostat, the EU’s statistic body, released figures that showed a spike in number of deportation orders issued in the EU in 2022’s second quarter. A total of 96,550 non-EU citizens were ordered to deport from the EU states in second quarter of the EU and 23,110 deportation took place, including withing the EU states. There has been a 15 per cent increase in deportation orders and 11 per cent increase in the deportation when compared ti the second quarter of 2021. France was has the largest number of deportation orders with 33,450. Greece takes the second place with 8,750 orders and Germany gave out 8,275 orders. The actual deportation figures constitutes France deporting 3,590 and German carrying out 2,765 deportation. Sweden came in third after France and Germany in deporting 2,380 people. The majority of people who are being deported are Albanians followed by Georgian, Russians and Turks.
(“EU countries again carrying out more deportations,” Deutsche Welle, 03 October 2022)

EU launches new Youth Action Plan
On 04 October, the EU introduced its first Youth Action Plan under the EU External Action for 2022-2027. Celebrating the European Year of Youth, the EU hopes to harness the changing demography and empower the youth for them to emerge as partners to help build a sustainable future. The action plan rests on three pillars, partnership to engage, partnership to empower and partnership to connect. The EU hopes to connect the Youth Action Plan with the Global Gateway strategy to connect youth across the globe and provide them with various opportunities. This strategy looks to break down barriers and combat various challenges faced by today’s youth. The Action Plan also introduces three new initiatives under it, the Youth and Women in Democracy initiative, the Youth  Empowerment Fund and the Africa-Europe Academy. The EU hopes that through this plan it can achieve its international commitments such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals of 2030. 
("European Year of Youth 2022: EU adopts the first Youth Action Plan in EU External Action to strengthen engagement with young people worldwide", ec.europa.eu, 04 October 2022) 

ECONOMY
SWIFT releases findings of Central Bank Digital Currency
On 05 October, SWIFT released its findings of an eight-month test looking at various digital currencies and technologies. This experiment was done to create a centralised Digital Currency which Central Banks can use for payments. The participants of the trail were the Central Banks of France and Germany and global vendors such as Standard Chartered, USB and HSBC. The Head of Innovations of SWIFT, Nick Kerigan explained how they are aiming to create a system where all the parties involved can connect to a main-hub and conduct all their transactions in digital currency. This is to increase efficiency of transactions and prevent a clutter of networks. A parallel test is also being conducted to see if they can convert digital assets like stocks and bonds  into tokens that can be traded. 
("SWIFT sets out blueprint for central bank digital currency network", euronews, 05 October 2022)

GENDER
Slovenia legalizes same-sex marriage and adoption 
On 04 October, Slovenian parliament legalized same-sex marriage and adoption through a constitutional amendment. Through this Slovenia becomes the first East European country to do so. This move comes after a constitutional court recognized the need for such an amendment to protect the rights of same-sex couples. The bill was passed with 48 votes in the parliament. 
("Slovenia becomes first East European country to legalise same-sex marriage and adoption", euronews, 05 October 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Single charger devices across the EU approved by the parliament
On 04 October, European Parliament press release reported that the EU consumers will have a single charger for every device by the end of 2024. The parliament approved the decision that all the mobile phones, tablets, cameras and other devices sold in the EU will be equipped with type-C port by the end of 2024 and Laptops by 2026. The single charger rule will help in reducing e-waste due to disposed chargers and decrease unnecessary purchase of chargers. No new charger will be required when buying new devices. All devices will have fast charging capabilities. It will also get rid of “lock-in” effect where a consumer depends on a single manufacturer for all the products.
(“Long-awaited common charger for mobile devices will be a reality in 2024,” europarl.europa.eu, 04 October 2022)   

INTERNATIONAL
French cities say no to outdoor viewing of Qatar World Cup
On 04 October, Deutsche Welle reported that Paris will join Marseille, Bordeaux, Nacy, Strasbourg, Lille and Reims in prohibiting fanzones with large TV screens inside cities during the World Cup in Qatar. Qatar is facing widespread criticism over the treatment of migrant labourers building stadiums and other infrastructure facilities in the hot desert. Many countries have joined in criticizing the Arab country for its migrant labour abuse and exploitation ahead of the football World Cup. Another reason for prohibiting the outdoor fanzones is that the tournament will take place during winter, which is not a ideal weather for viewing outside. As a show of criticism, Denmark unveiled muted jersey for the World Cup and many European football federation express their support to issues like LGBTQ+ rights. 
(“Paris ditches big screens for Qatar World Cup,” Deutsche Welle, 04 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 223
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground 
On 04 October, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree No. 687/2022 announcing the decrees singed by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on recognising LPR, DPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as “null and void.” The decree emphasized the sovereign territory and the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the internationally acknowledged borders.

On 04 October, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced UAH four billion as rapid recovery fund to reconstruct the most affected war zones such as “Kharkiv region, Kyiv region, Chernihiv region, Sumy region.” It is aimed to bring back the critical infrastructure in terms of energy and part of crisis response.

According to the National Guard of Ukraine, a “ruscist ammunition depot,” of Russia was taken down in the Kharkiv region, where close to 483 areas have been restored from the Russian occupation. Mala Oleksandrivka was reported to be freed by the Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region. These areas were earlier part of Russia’s referendums.

On 04 October, the Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Starukh reported on Russia setting up a “state border” in the Vasylivka of Zaporizhzhia region. He said: “The occupiers try to build a ‘border’ as they once did in Crimea and Donbas.” On the same day, Zelenskyy held a call with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the possible partnership between Ukraine and India, global food security, implementing the grain exports and nuclear safety.

 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 04 October, the Russian Parliament ratified the “unification of treaties” of  DPR, LPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Upon Russia President Putin signing the treaty, it was lawfully accepted by the Constitutional Court with a uniform voting. The last step will be to make changes to the constitution to finalize the annexation.

On 04 October, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that more than 200,000 personnel have been recruited for the Russian Armed Forces. He stated that the recruits will be provided equipment, training and combat coordination skills, only upon the completion they will be deployed on the special military operation in Ukraine. Those who do not complete the mandatory services will be sent home as per his remarks.

On 04 October, RT reported on the Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko remarks on the Belarus’s role in the military operation of Russia. In his address Lukashenko said: “Our role is to prevent this conflict from spreading into the territory of Belarus, first of all. And, secondly, it is to prevent a strike against Belarus from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia under the cover of the special military operation.” He maintained Belarus stance to be neutral for Russian and Ukrainian refugees, countered the claims on Belarus helping Russia militarily by saying that Belarus would not be involved in the Ukraine war beyond a limit and use its national forces only to guard Belarus.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 04 October, the EU Finance Ministers announced EUR 20 billion as funds to reduce the dependency over Russian energy. The fund will aim to invest in those where energy can be produced quickly and simultaneously the increasing energy prices can be brought under control.

The US announced to provide USD 625 million to Ukraine as a security aid, which will include, four HIMARS systems, rocket launchers, artillery, ammunition, and armoured vehicles to up bridge the attack capacity.

The Ministry of National Defence of Turkey reported on the total Ukraine grain exports count. It stated that close to six million tonnes of grain had been exported through the agreed grain corridor, where corn, wheat, sunflower meal, sunflower oil, sugar beet, soybeans, peas and barley were reported to be shipped.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 04 October, Ukraine Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko and Regional Director of the World Bank for Eastern Europe agreed to provide USD 529.9 million. The fund is given under the joint implementation with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) to help Ukraine’s public expenditure and to assure a sustainable administration. In a statement: “The loan proceeds will be directed to the general fund of the State Budget of Ukraine for the reimbursement of payments to employees of the budget sector, provision of pension payments and certain state social assistance programs, support for low-income families.”

On 03 October, Islamic Public News Agency reported on Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani response on Ukraine war. In the press address, he stated that Iran was ready to settle the conflict peacefully and on the question of Russia’s referendum’s, he said that Iran would support the move under the international laws of the UN.

On 04 October, IAEA Head, Rafael Grossi reported on the release of Ihor Murashov, who was earlier detained by the Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia. The Guardian reported on North Korea becoming the only country to recognise the referendums of Russia taken in parts of Ukraine. In case of the relations between Japan and Russia, it continues to decline with the Japan Foreign Minister calling back the Russian Consul back to return Japan before 10 October. In a statement released by Modi after his call with Zelenskyy said: “…there can be no military solution to the conflict and conveyed India's readiness to contribute to any peace efforts. Reiterated the importance of respecting the UN Charter, International Law, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.”

References

Russian invaders building ‘state border’ in Zaporizhzhia region,” Ukrinform, 04 October 2022
DECREE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE No. 687/2022,” president.gov.ua, 04 October 2022
Gov’t has directed over UAH 4 billion to the rapid recovery of regions affected by the war, says Denys Shmyhal,” kmu.gov.ua, 04 October 2022
The President of Ukraine held a telephone conversation with the Prime Minister of India,” president.gov.ua, 04 October 2022
National Guard members destroy Russian ammunition depot in Kharkiv region,” Ukrinform, 04 October 2022
Ukrainian Air Assault Forces say they liberated Mala Oleksandrivka in Kherson region,” Ukrinform, 04 October 2022
Russian partial mobilization numbers revealedv,” RT, 04 October 2022
Belarus explains its role in Russia–Ukraine conflict,” RT, 04 October 2022
Russia’s parliament fully ratifies unification treaties,” RT, 04 October 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy reports 'fast and powerful' advance in the southv,” Deutsche Welle, 04 October 2022  
TR Ministry of National Defense update,” Twitter, Turkish government agency, 04 October 2022
Ukraine will receive additional financing of 529.9 million dollars from the World Bank,” mof.gov.ua, 04 October 2022
Spox says Iran backs efforts to peacefully resolve Ukraine conflict,” Islamic Public News Agency, 03 October 2022
Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 223 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 04 October 2022


04 October 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #323

War in Ukraine: Day 222

Photo : Sergei Fadeichev/TASS


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

THE UK
Government reverses tax cuts for the top earners
On 03 October, Treasury chief Kwasi Kwarteng announced the decision to scrap the controversial tax cuts for the top bracket of the UK. Announced on 23 September, Kwarteng had proposed tax cuts on those earning over GPB 150,000 a year who were currently paying a 45 per cent rate of income tax. The move to scrape this policy had a positive effect on the value of the pound which rose to USD 1.13. At the annual conference of the Conservative Party, Kwarteng announced that the plan for the rest of the tax cuts will not be scrapped. He also accepted that the budget had a negative effect and that they were open to criticisms and solutions. At the same time, he urged the need to move on and deliver the outlined plan. Despite the value of the pound bouncing back, the market, investors and the public are still wary of the future ramifications of the budget and the growing cost-of-living crisis. (“UK scraps tax cut for wealthy that sparked market turmoil”, AP News, 03 October 2022)
 
TURKEY
Turkish economy records the highest inflation rates since 1998
On 03 October, Turkey’s statistics officially announced the inflation rates for September at 83.45 per cent. Such high rates were last seen in 1998 and some independent groups such as the Inflation Research Group project the rate at 186.27 per cent. These rising inflation rates hit the transportation sector the most with an annual price increase of 117.66 per cent and the food and non-alcoholic drinks sector at 93 per cent. The rising inflation rates have led to an increase in the price of goods which will have a direct effect on the already burdened public. This increase is said to have been a result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s view that high prices are caused by high borrowing costs. Due to this, the Central bank of Turkey has been slashing interest rates to act as an incentive to increase production and exports. This cut in rates has led to a decrease in the value of the Turkish Lira. (“Inflation in Turkey tops 83% as lira drops and Erdogan promises more interest rate cuts”, euronews, 03 October 2022)
 
THE CZECH REPUBLIC
European Commission aims to give additional funding to the Czech Republic
On 03 October, the Commission announced its plans to the provide Czech Republic with additional funding of EUR 4.5 billion. The funding will be given as a part of the SURE instrument of the EU which focuses on job and workers protection in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. Czechia with this injection will have received a total of EUR 4.5 billion through SURE. The fund will be given as loans to address expenditures of 2020 and 2021 and maintenance of the measures adopted to handle the socio-economic crisis that rose due to the pandemic. (“Commission proposes to provide additional €2.5 billion to Czechia under SURE ”, ec.europa.eu, 03 October 2022)
 
REGIONAL
European Commission outlined a failsafe in case of a natural gas shortage
On 03 October, the Commission announced its back-up in the event of a natural gas shortage. It has accepted a German proposal to revive lignite-fired power plants in face of a shortage because of the Russia-Ukraine war and help Europe survive winter. With a cost of EUR 450 million, the measure looks to prepare these plants to handle the load when the demand arises. The plants will be kept under a lignite supply reserve from 01 October 2022 to 31 March 2024 and will help in protecting natural gas availability. The Commission accepted this measure as a part of EU State aid rules which allows for funding of certain sectors or companies in times of need. (“State aid: Commission approves €450 million German measure to replace electricity generation amid Russian natural gas shortages”, ec.europa.eu, 03 October 2022)

Poland asks for World War II reparations
On 03 October, through a diplomatic note, Poland asked for compensation from Germany for World War II. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau in a press conference said that "[The note] expresses the position of the Polish minister of foreign affairs that the parties should take immediate steps to permanently and effectively... settle the issue of the consequences of German aggression and occupation." This comes at the same time German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is said to visit Poland to participate in the German Unity Day festivities in Warsaw. The reparations are estimated at around EUR 1.3 trillion Rau is said to talk to Baerbock about the same. (“ Poland demands €1.3 trillion in WWII reparations from Germany”, Deutsche Welle, 03 October 2022)
 
Six nations propose new sanctions against Iran
On 03 October, new proposals were submitted to the EU regarding sanctions against Iran for its violent response to the ongoing protests. Germany, France, Denmark, Spain, Italy, and the Czech Republic have put forth 16 proposals for new sanctions which are said to target institutions and individuals primarily involved in the suppression of the protests. These proposals will be discussed by the EU foreign ministers on 17 October. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called the crackdown due to the fear of the power of education and freedom. She also expressed the limitations of their actions in a tweet which said, "It is also difficult to bear that our foreign policy options are limited. But we can amplify their voice, create publicity, bring charges and sanction. And that we are doing." These protests erupted nationwide due to the death of women in police custody over the issue of hijab. (“Germany, others in EU plan Iran sanctions over protests clampdown”, Reuters, 03 October 2022)
 
SCIENCE
UK and EU witnessed the largest occurrence of avian flu
On 03 October, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the EU Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza reported that 48 million birds were culled in the last year due to the avian flu. This is the largest outbreak of the avian flu in the UK and Europe and is still spreading. Spreading very easily, UK’s Chief Veterinary Officer Dr Christine Middlemiss said that the reason behind the increased cases in commercial farms was the persistence of the flu in wild birds. These numbers are expected to rise with the migration season near. The latest figure only maps the damage done from October 2021 to 09 September. (Malcom Prior “Record avian flu outbreak sees 48m birds culled in UK and EU”, BBC, 03 October 2022)
 
Swedish Scientist receives Nobel Prize
On 03 October, Svante Paabo, a Swedish scientist was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for his study on human evolution. The Prize committee congratulated him and explained how his research has been instrumental in mapping human evolution and the migration of humans around the planet. Paabo’s work explained how there are two different groups of modern humans Neanderthals and Denisovans who were based in Eurasia. He worked with old, tainted and ruined genetic material to understand our history. After identification, he compared these with the genetic material of Homo sapiens and explored what are the common factors between them. His work is said to help us understand what makes us “uniquely human” according to the prize committee. (“Nobel Prize goes to Svante Paabo for Neanderthal work”, BBC, 03 October 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU and Israel hold talks after a decade
On 03 October the EU and Israel held talks after a gap of 10 years where the former asked Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid about a possible solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell participated in these talks and reiterated the EU stance to put an end to this conflict in a peaceful manner. He also conveyed the EU’s concerns about the situation on the ground plagued with violence and security issues. Lapid in a statement expressed, “It is an important milestone in our improving relations. This past year has seen some vast progress in our ties — and there is still so much more that we can do.” The future of these talks is uncertain as Israel heads to the polls on 01 November where it is said that there is a high chance that the parliament will consist of anti-Palestine supporters. (“EU, Israel hold high-level talks for first time in a decade”, AP News, 03 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 222
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 03 October, Ukraine’s Security Service reported in a telegram post that the Russians had counted the votes of those who had left the regions, especially in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. An SBC intercepted a phone call from a Russian soldier to his wife discussed that the votes for those who had left the occupied region of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson were taken into account for the referendums. He also said that in Kherson, people were bribed into voting by offering to buy a Lada-Granta car.

On the same day, the Czech Republic collected over EUR 1.22 million to fund the upgraded T-72 Avenger tank as military aid to Ukraine. The fundraising campaign was named “A Gift for Putin” and had the slogan “A gift from the Czech Republic!”. The fundraiser started at the beginning of September. All collected funds for the campaign are transferred to Ukraine’s Embassy in Prague account. The details for the purchase of the tank and its logistics were consulted with Ukraine’s servicemen before the start of the campaign. The T-72 Avenger is an upgraded version of the Soviet T-72 tank with improved combat capabilities, comfort and efficiency. It has modern features that were absent in the Soviet-era tank. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 04 October, LENTA RU reported that the Director General of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Igor Murashov, was discovered to have a connection with Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU). Murashov confessed that he communicated with an SBU employee through messengers to update the situation in the ZNPP. He confirmed that Ukraine had been attacking the NPP from the cities of Nikopol and Marganets. He was detained by a Russian patrol on 01 October and was later released. He also said that the man from SBU did not allow him to appeal to Russia, Ukraine, the UN and the IAEA to stop the shelling as it did not “align with Ukraine’s interests”. The shellings continue in the ZNPP, and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is said to visit Russia and Ukraine to negotiate the situation and help create a security zone around the power plant.

On 03 October, Russia’s State Duma unanimously passed draft constitutional laws that recognize the annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as well into Russia. The law states that the residents of the territories will be recognized as Russian citizens from 30 September. A month is provided for the residents to reject their citizenship and acquire it by submitting applications and swearing in as Russian citizens. After joining Russia, DPR and LPR will continue to be republics, while Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will be addressed as regions. The transition period of the territories acceding to Russia will be till 01 January 2026. The new territories will have representatives in the State Duma and will mandatorily have to change their currency to roubles. The State Duma ratified the unification of four regions into Russia.

In a statement by the presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, he said that the demarcation for the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is yet to be determined. According to him, there have been issues with identifying proper boundaries for these regions as they are partly occupied by Ukrainian forces. He said that he will clarify the precise boundaries for the two territories later

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 October, billionaire Elon Musk tweeted polling a proposal for a plan to end the war in Ukraine was met with different responses. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replied with his poll asking whether Musk supports Ukraine or Russia. His four-point plan was to let the UN conduct another referendum in the four regions to see whether they wanted to join Russia or not. He also proposed that Ukraine should be neutral, Crimea should belong to Russia, and the region should get its water supply resumed. Musk replied to the tweet by Zelenskyy that his company SpaceX had donated USD 80 million to Ukraine and none to Russia. He also said that he is with Ukraine and will provide the Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine, which help access people’s internet through satellite.

On 03 October, the UK’s Defence Intelligence updated that Russia is facing difficulty in following the new partial mobilization decree as chaos has spread in implementing it. Local officials are unclear about the instructions and goals of the mobilization. Wrong people are conscripted into the army and the Russian officials find logistics and training of the new soldiers difficult.

Europe is at “unprecedented risks” regarding its gas supply in winter. Amidst the fear of a total Russian gas cut-off, Europe is facing one of the worst energy crises in its history. It has fulfilled its 80 per cent energy storage in winter ahead of time currently holding 88 per cent, however, the International Energy Agency suggests that 90 per cent of energy should be stored for Europe to get through winter if Russia completely stops its supply. The EU took up measures to mandatorily reduce the consumption of energy by five per cent during peak price hours and a voluntary ten per cent reduction overall. It was mainly to be followed by regular consumers and businesses. The EU also advised consumers to turn down thermostats by one degree and adjust boiler temperatures as well as industrial and utility conservation. The EU also aims to cap excessive revenues made by energy companies and tax surplus profits of fossil fuel companies. The energy crisis has led to extreme conditions in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the rest of Asia.

On 03 October, Sweden provided “advance diving missions” capable vessels to the Baltic Sea to investigate the undersea explosion that led to leakage in Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. The leaks methane leak occurred near the economic zone of Denmark and Sweden in the Baltic Sea. On 30 September Russia accused the West of sabotaging the pipelines to which the West strongly denied any allegation. Swedish Coast Guards have reported that major leaks in the pipelines have stopped, however, Nord Stream 2 has increase in smaller leaks. Denmark, Germany and Sweden are leading a joint international investigation team to find who is responsible for the explosion and the subsequent leaks. They are trying to stop the leakage of the pipelines.

On the same day, the Czech government cautioned its citizens who also hold citizenship in Russia to leave the country amidst the partial mobilization call. It warned that the Czechs who hold Russian citizenship will also face the risk of military conscription. They were advised to flee the country. The government announced that its citizens would not be provided with necessary, full consular protection by the Czech Embassy in Moscow.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

Following the partial mobilization call by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, many Russians have fled to Istanbul, Turkey which still hasn't imposed sanctions on Russian travellers. Russians are flying to Turkey to go to other places as it is accessible easily. The large influx of Russians after the mobilization call to Istanbul is being compared to “white Russians” escaping the Bolsheviks in 1917 by Eva Rapoport, the coordinator of the Ark, a group helping Russians flee their country.

An investigation by the Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline” discovered that the bulk cargo Laodicea was owned by Syria and is used by Russia to smuggle stolen Ukrainian grain worth USD 530 million. The ship is docked in Lebanon and its prosecutors supported Russia allowing the ship to unload. AP used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to determine that Russia is stealing grains from Ukraine and unloading them in the ports of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. Russia has denied the allegation calling them baseless and false.

References
Security Service of Ukraine, “During the fake referendum, the invaders even counted the "votes" of Ukrainians who left the occupied territory.,” Telegram, 03 October 2022
The Czechs collected funds for the T-72 tank for Ukraine,” mil.in.ua, 03 October 2022
Director General of Zaporizhzhya NPP confessed to having links with Ukrainian special services,” LENTA RU, 04 October 2022
State Duma passes laws on accepting DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into Russia,” TASS, 03 October 2022
Russian State Duma ratifies accession treaties for former Ukrainian territories,” RT, 03 October 2022
Kremlin comments on borders of new territories,” RT, 03 October 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Musk and Zelenskiy in Twitter showdown over billionaire's Ukraine peace plan,” Reuters, 04 October 2022
Sammy Westfall and Missy Ryan, “Elon Musk tweets ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine. Chaos ensues.,” Washington Post, 03 October 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 3 October 2022,” Twitter, 03 October 2022
David Mchugh, “Experts: Europe faces ‘unprecedented risk’ of a gas shortage,” apnews, 03 October 2022
Ben Turner, “Energy crisis: Europeans 'must lower thermostats to prepare for Russia turning off gas supplies',” euronews, 03 October 2022
Jan M Olsen, “Sweden sends special diving vessel to area of pipeline leaks,” apnews, 03 October 2022
Czech Republic updates warning for citizens to leave Russia,” Reuters, 03 October 2022
Robert Badendieck and Mehmet Guzel, “Fleeing Russians follow path of 1917 refugees to Istanbul,” apnews, 03 October 2022
Michael Biesecker, Sarah El Deeb and Beatrice Dupuy, “Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin's war,” apnews, 03 October 2022


03 October 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #322

War in Ukraine: Day 220 & 221

Photo : AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

BOSNIA
Bosnia holds presidential and parliamentary election
On 03 October, the partial vote count in Bosnia’s tripartite inter-ethnic presidency displayed that the moderate Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) candidate, Denis Becirevic, is in the lead. He won 55.78 per cent of the votes over the nationalist Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) Party of the Democratic Action (SDA) candidate, Bakir Izetbegovic. The election was to pick Bosnia’s new President and parliamentarians at national, regional and local levels. The preliminary results of the polls will be updated by the election commission on 03 October. The commission pointed out that the voter turnout was 50 per cent by seven pm. (Daria Sito-sucic, “Moderate Bosniak candidate leads in race for presidency seat,” Reuters, 03 October 2022)

BULGARIA
Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov looks for a narrow victory in the snap election
On 02 October, Bulgaria held its fourth election in less than two years, with former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB party set to win narrowly with 23.6-25.5 per cent of votes. People hope his predictability and stability will help the country ease the high inflation and problems from the war in Ukraine. Former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov’s reformist party, We Continue the Change, lies in second place with 19.5-19.9 per cent of the vote. Petkov’s cabinet collapsed in June 2022, leading to instability in fragile Bulgarian politics. Borissov should make a difficult decision on coalition talks which might lead to a hung parliament or even another election. The sentiment toward Russia is mixed as Bulgaria went along with the West to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine but also is trying to renew its relations after the war ends. (Tsvetelia Tsolova, “Bulgarian GERB ahead in election, but coalition outlook uncertain,” Reuters 03 October 2022)
 
LATVIA
Krisjanis Karins and his party win for the second time in Latvia
On 02 October, The result from 95 per cent of Latvia’s districts showed that the centre-right New Unity Party won the state election body, held on 01 October, with Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins reelected for the second time. The party won with 18.9 per cent of the vote beating the centrist and environmentalist United List Party, which had 11.5 per cent. The election occurred amid an economic crisis, soaring energy prices, communal division and the effect of the war in Ukraine plaguing Latvia. The Baltic state’s majority is shunning the Russian-speaking minorities due to Russia invading Ukraine. The Russian-supporting opposition, Social Democratic Party Harmony, did not fare well in the recent election due to its friendly nature with Russia. Prime Minister Karins said he would again form the same coalition government that he had formed in 2019 if he wins the recent election. (“Latvia election: Karins wins reelection amid Russia-Ukraine war,” Deutsche Welle, 02 October 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Bulgaria finds gas supply through the new Greece-Bulgaria pipeline
On 01 October, a pipeline connecting Greece and Bulgaria was launched. The Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) will supply Azeri gas to Bulgaria, whose gas supply was halted by Russia for its failure to pay in roubles. The pipeline connects the northern Greek city of Komotini to the Bulgarian city of Stara Zagora. The pipeline will be linked to the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline which supplies Azerbaijan’s gas to Europe. The inaugural ceremony of the launch was attended by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen and leaders of Bulgaria, Greece, Azerbaijan, Romania, Serbia and North Macedonia in Sofia. The pipeline could also provide Azeri gas to Serbia, North Macedonia, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine. It was a joint venture between Bulgaria’s state energy company BEH, Greek gas utility DEPA and Italy’s Edison worth EUR 240 million. (“Greece-Bulgaria pipeline starts operations to boost non-Russian gas flows,” euronews, 01 October 2022)

Turkish warplanes neutralized 23 Kurdish militants
On 02 October, Turkey’s Defence Ministry reported that 23 Kurdish Militants were eliminated by Turkish warplanes in the Asos region of Northern Iraq. The regions controlled by the autonomous Kurdish regional government in Iraq are warned to expect a growth in the number of casualties by the Turkish Defence ministry. The ministry said that it is conducting operations to prevent the Kurdish militant group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), from attacking its border with Turkey. Operation Claw-Lock launched ground and air forces to battle against the Kurdish militants. PKK is considered a terrorist organization by the US, the EU and Turkey.(“Turkey says 23 Kurdish militants killed in Iraq airstrikes,” apnews, 02 October 2022)

Protesters gathered in front of the Iranian embassy dispersed by Swiss police
On 01 October, demonstrators gathered in front of Iran’s Embassy in Bern to protest against the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in Tehran over an improper way of wearing a hijab. She was killed by the morality police for wearing her hijab, an Islamic headscarf loosely. The protest started with two men entering the embassy’s premises unauthorized and bringing down the Iranian flag from a flagpole in the yard. It was followed by other people attempting to access the area. Swiss police dispersed the protesters with rubber bullets, which did not cause any injuries. (“Swiss police violently disperse anti-Iran protest at embassy,” apnews, 02 October 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 220 & 221
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground 
On 01 October, the World Bank announced USD 530 million fund for Ukraine to address its critical, economic, and social needs. The fund will address the critical needs which are important government services and the consequences of the war on the economic and social sectors of Ukraine. This will be financed by the UK and the Kingdom of Denmark. The World Bank in total has provided aid worth USD 13 billion to the Ukraine Government. 

On 02 October, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed on the nuclear blackmail threat by Russia, the problem at Zaporizhzhia NPP and increasing support for Ukraine’s defence in a call. 

On 02 October, the application for accelerated membership of Ukraine to NATO was supported by Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the US were the members who extended their support to Ukraine’s bid for membership. 

On 02 October, Zelenskyy hailed the success of the launch of Ukraine’s first corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa. This was launched when the First Lady of Ukraine, the head of the President’s Office and other representatives visited Turkey. The corvette is built with the help of Turkey which was started in 2021. The Ukrainian delegation in Turkey also met the Chairman of the Baykar’s Board and visited the factories of the Baykar company that manufactures Bayraktar UCAVs which are supplied to Ukraine. Zelensky also revealed the plans to collaborate with the Bayraktar company to open a training centre and a subsidiary in Ukraine and to manufacture aircraft engines together.   

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 October, the Ministry of Defence announced the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the strike carried out by the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) in Krasnolimansk. The Armed Forces are reported to have lost 200 people, 320 wounded, and 10 tanks and 25 infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed. Additionally, the Armed Forces also lost over 100 servicemen and 12 units of military gear when the Russian forces launched a missile near the 92nd and 14th mechanised brigades. 

On 02 October, Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported that the Russian Armed Forces had demolished warehouses containing military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The warehouses were based in Sadovod, Kalinovka, Zaliznichnoye, Rivenpilye, Skogoshnoye, Kramatorsk and Volnoye Pole. The armed forces were observed to have demolished the guidance radar of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in New Kaluga. 

On 02 October, the Russian Constitutional Court published its review of the annexation treaties. The Court announced that the Donetsk and Lugansk regions will be allowed to keep their position as republics in the Russian Federation, whereas the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye will be known as Russian regions. Officially the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) will be a part of the Russian Federation with Russian as their state language. They will be able to preserve their mother tongue and continue to develop it.   

On the same day, the Constitutional Court also asked the administration to appoint interim heads to the four annexed regions. The President will appoint the interim officials within 10 days of the annexation and they will be in power until a formal election. The heads of Zaporozhye and Kherson will be known as governors and that of DPR and LPR will be called heads due to their republic status. The period of transition for the four new regions was announced by the Court to be until 01 January 2023 wherein they should be fully integrated into the Russian Federation.

On 02 October, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the lower house will discuss the matters related to the integration of the four new regions annexed. In an interview with the “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” show, the Duma will investigate amendments that need to be introduced to adopt the treaties and litigation that needs to be introduced which will award the people of this region the same rights as that of a Russian. This will be discussed in a plenary meeting on 03 October. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 October, AP News reported on the veto by Russia in the against a UN resolution which condemned the referendums held by Russia in Ukraine. The UNSC resolution was sponsored by the US and Albania and the council was divided 10-1 with abstentions from India, China, Brazil, and Gabon. The resolution was aimed at bringing the Russian invasion to an end and the withdrawal of all its forces. With Russia continuing to veto, US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield outlined their next move which is to take up the matter in the UNGA where there is no veto power.  

On 01 October, Germany’s Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht visited Odessa and met the Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov. This was her first visit since the war began and comes at the time when Ukraine is asking Germany to supply battle tanks to aid in its fight. Lambrecht observed the status of Ukraine’s military equipment and commended the strength of Ukraine’s air defence and artillery. She also observed how the people were distressed by the drones flying closely. On battle tanks, she reiterated the view of Chancellor Olaf Scholz that is it “We will always confer with our partners about what Ukraine needs.” This visit comes after the annexation of four Ukrainian regions which has been condemned by Germany. On 02 September Lambrecht announced the supply of 16-wheeled armoured howitzers, costing EUR 92 million, which will be built in Slovakia with funding from Germany, Demark, and Norway. 

On the same day, US President Joe Biden rejected Russia’s claim on US to be behind the Nord Stream pipelines leak. According to the West, Russia is making these claims only to draw attention away from the annexation of Ukrainian territories. 

On 02 September, the Polish President’s Office published a statement outlining the position of nine Central and Eastern European countries on  the annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk, and Zaporizhzhia by Russia. The presidents of all the countries came together to denounce the annexations and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia were the nine signatories to this statement, demanding for the withdrawal of Russian troops.  They also voiced their support of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and encouraged all the allies to increase the military supply to Ukraine.  

On 02 October, former advisor to US Defence Secretary Douglas Macgregor accused the west to be behind the Nord Stream pipelines leak. Appearing in the Judging Freedom podcast, Macgregor claimed that either the US or the UK are behind this as they have the naval capability to do so. When asked if Russia can be behind this, he said "The Russians did not do this." He also ruled out any German involvement in the incident. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 02 October, Pope Francis implored Russian President Vladimir Putin to put an end to the war in Ukraine. He called for peace for the first time since the conflict began and said that the crisis was causing an “absurd” risk of the inevitable consequences of a nuclear crisis. Urging that the conflict was an “error and horror”, the Pope appealed to Zelenskyy to explore peace proposals. Addressing the public in St. Peter’s Square, he said the war in Ukraine has become threatening to the point where it causes immense tensions in the world order, with the emergence of the uncontrollable consequence of nuclear risks and stressed Ukraine’s right to defend itself from aggression. The Pope denounced the employment of arms and has singled out the leaders of Russia and Ukraine in a bid to end the violence between the two.  The Pope expressed that the beginning of negotiations and solutions should be mutually agreed upon and not “imposed by force”. He has also communicated that the mutual cease-fire would be based on respect for the “sacrosanct value of human life” and has firmly etched on the consideration of all human life in the aftermath of the crisis

On 02 October. Canada announced that it will help Ukraine in rebuilding its railway infrastructure, together with the specific projects and programs that would revitalise Ukraine’s railway system. Ukraine has faced a deadly amount of railway tracks, worth 6,000 kilometres, being wrecked and destroyed beyond measure. A joint working committee in collaboration with Canada has ensured assistance in setting up installations. The Canadian Pacific Railway Company (CP) and the Canadian National Railway (CN) have lodged support in logistics and railway management, along with infrastructure and reconstruction. Negotiations led by the Transport Ministers of both countries resulted in the ignition of a much-required rehabilitation of Ukraine’s primary transport services. 

On 02 October, AP News looked at the consequences of that the Russia-Ukraine war on the climate goals of Asia. Europe has lost its largest oil supplier Russia and in its search for alternative sources, it is dipping into suppliers whose main clientele are Asian nations. This is leading to a price rise as there is increased competition for a valuable resource. There are two blocks in Asia, one that is looking at energy security and the other that is looking at climate goals. Countries like Sri Lanka, Indonesia, China, and India are focusing on energy security while South Korea and Japan are focusing on climate goals. The first block is going back to coal to support their energy requirements and keep inflation down in their economies. China and India are still buying cheap oil and gas supplied by Russia despite western sanctions to supplement the need that rises due to their large population. This is not to say they are not focusing on their climate goals. The first block is alternatively looking at resources and innovations to increase the supply of clean energy. The second block of South Korea and Japan are feeling the burden of rising prices and to combat this they are turning towards nuclear energy as an alternative source. This has faced a lot of doubt, especially in Japan as they do not want another Fukushima incident.  

References
Ukraine to get additional $530M from World Bank”, Ukrinform, 01 October 2022
Zelensky, Macron discuss Russia's nuclear blackmail”, Ukrinform, 02 October 2022
President’s Office thanks NATO member states supporting Ukraine's future membership”, Ukrinform, 02 October 2022
Ukraine was and will be one of the European centers of the military and aviation industry – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy”, president.gov.ua, 02 October 2022
Russia announced the withdrawal of forces from the Red Estuary”, LENTA.RU, 02 October 2022
Russia withdraws troops after Ukraine encircles key city”, AP News, 02 October 2022
The Ministry of Defense revealed the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Krasnolimansk direction”,LENTA.RU, 02 October 2022
The Russian military destroyed seven warehouses with ammunition and weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”,LENTA.RU, 02 October 2022
DPR, LPR to keep status of republics with Russian as state language in Russian Federation”, TASS, 02 October 2022
Putin to appoint interim heads of 4 new regions within 10 days after accession to Russia”, TASS, 02 October 2022
The terms of the transition period for the integration of new regions into the Russian Federation have been outlined”, LENTA.RU, 02 October 2022
Duma speaker says bills on accession of new entities to Russia to be considered on Oct. 3”, TASS, 02 October 2022 
Edith M. Lederer “Russia vetoes UN resolution calling its referendums illegal”, AP News, 01 October 2022
Germany’s Defence Minister Visits Ukraine”, Kyiv Post, 02 October 2022
Germany, Denmark, Norway to deliver 16 howitzers to Ukraine”, AP News, 02 October 2022
West rejects Putin’s claim it sabotaged Baltic gas pipelines”, AP News, 01 October 2022
9 European Heads Support NATO Membership for Ukraine”, Kyiv Post, 02 October 2022
Joint statement of Presidents of Central and Eastern Europe”, president.pl, 02 October 2022
Ex-advisor to Pentagon chief suggests US, UK might be behind Nord Streams incident”, TASS, 02 October 2022
Pope warns of nuclear war risk; appeals to Putin on Ukraine “, AP News, 02 October 2022
Canada Helps Ukraine Restore Railway Infrastructure”, Kyiv Post, 02 October 2022
Aniruddha Ghosal and Sibi Arasu “What the war in Ukraine means for Asia’s climate goals”, AP News, 02 October 2022


01 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #321

The Baltic states ban over entry of Russians: Three reasons | War in Ukraine: Day 219

Photo : CNBC



EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan

The Baltic states ban over entry of Russians: Three reasons

On 21 September, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed the decree calling for partial mobilization. The Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, stated that 300,000 men would be called to serve in the army with military experience. Upon the announcement, many young men fled to Turkey, Germany, Serbia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Finland. With Russian trying to enter the borders, Turkey and Serbia which has lesser visa restriction allowed the influx. Finland imposed ban on entry on Russias who hold finland issued or Schengen issues visas, while Germany stated that it will take in those Russian’s who oppose Putin’s invasion. The Baltic States along with Slovakia took a strong stance declaring a complete ban on Russians to enter.

Three reasons
First, Latvia’s demography and security concern. Latvia’s Foreign Minister Edgar Rinkevics said that Latvia will not grant entry even under humanitarian base for Russian. The Russian population problem is present similar to Estonia, but the numbers and the influence is more. Close to 1.8 million, 30 per cent of Latvia’s population are Russian speaking who have exploited the financial markets, infrastructure through connecting with Russian oligarchs. The intrution does not stop to finance but extend to influencing Latvia’s politics, society, with Russia expanding into Ukraine has furthered the risk of Latvia of being indirectly invaded by the Russian within its territory. The highest fear is disruption of the elections, where the centre-right New Unity Party which has storng anti-Russian stance is expected to win.

Second, Estonia’s socioeconmic division threat. The Foreign Minister of Estonia, along with Lithuania and Latvia agreed to ban Russians from entering the border after Russia declaring the mobilization recruitment. The reason behind Estonia strong stance against Russian come due to its existing internal problem. A former USSR country, contains a minority of Russian speaking immigrants of 1.3 million which has led to first, “ethinic residential segregation,” Second, damage to social integration and ethinic identities, where the minorty group residing in Estonian predominant areas tend to portray as Estonian but identify them as Russians. When such ethinic seclusion crosses with socioeconomic create major challenge for Estonians making them to leave the neighbourhood. With Ukraine war, entry of more Russians into Estonia is seen as threat to widen the socioeconomic division, due to which Estonia stands strong on the ban.

Third, united stance with the Estonia and Latvia. Lithuania compared to Estonia and Latvia, the population strength and the ancestoral link of the Russian speaking people is much lesser. In terms of gas and oils imports, Lithuania has managed to keep it at 37 per cent as of 2020, while Estonia and Latvia imports 50 per cent. Another important factor is the majority of the population (77 per cent) are catholic and only 4.1 per cent are Eastern Orthodox. In case of Estonia and Latvia it ranges from 20 to 28 per cent. But due to shared policies, history, geography, and as preventive measure to keep the Russian population in control Lithuania joins with the Baltic states in standing against Russian from entering its borders.

References
Estonia Denies Entry to Dual Russian Citizens Who Hold Schengen Visas,” schengenvisa, 26 September 2022
Ethnic residential segregation and integration of the Russian-speaking population in Estonia,” European Commission, 13 Novemeber 2018
Stefan Hedlund, “Latvia and the Russia factor,” gisreportsonline, 13 September 2021
Latvia goes to polls amid growing rift between Latvian majority and Russian minority,” Reuters, 01 October 2022
Sarah Coolican, “The Russian Diaspora in the Baltic States:The Trojan Horse that never was,” lse.ac.uk, December 2021


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee 

BULGARIA
Support for GERB party increases before elections
|On 30 September, opinion polls conducted by Alpha Research, Trend and Gallup International in Bulgaria showed the centre-right GERB party widening the gap with its main rival the reformist “We Continue the Change (PP) party.” Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB party has seen an increase in support to 25-26 per cent from the 22.7 percent when it won the elections in November 2021. However, support for the PP party has fallen from 25.7 per cent to 16.6 per cent. Bulgaria’s fourth parliamentary election in less than two years is scheduled to be held on 02 October. So far, opinion polls have indicated a fractured parliament with up to eight political parties without clear majority. (“Bulgaria's GERB party expands lead ahead of Sunday's election,” Reuters, 30 September 2022)

FRANCE
Macron encounters crucial strike as pensioners refuse reform
On 29 September, the French government witnessed strikes against President Emmanuel Macron proposal on raising the retirement age from 62 to 65. The opposition and unions rejected the pension reforms and demanded for pay rise put forward by the French government. According to Macron, these reforms were the only way to push back on taxes without decreasing revenues amidst declining deficits and staggering public debts. Around 200 protests were organized nationwide and was staged by 400,000 people in Paris. (Luke Shrago, “Macron faces first major strike since re-election as unions oppose pension reform,” France24, 29 September 2022)

GERMANY
Germany report finds algae bloom to be the cause behind the death of fish in Oder River
On 30 September, the German Environment Authorities (UBA) issued a report on the mass kill-off of fish in the Oder River, which borders Poland and Germany. UBA said that the death of the fish had likely been caused by the algae Prymnesium parvum, which releases toxins into the water they grow in. The algal bloom was caused because the componenets of the water was favourable for its growth, like a high concentration of salt. UBA ruled out contamination from industries and herbicides as the cause behind the deaths as the amounts found in the water of Oder is not enough to cause such acute poisoning of the fish. The report also recommended conducting more research and mitigating similar catastrophes in the future and increasing cross-border warning systems. (“Germany: Oder River mass fish deaths most likely caused by algae, authorities say,” Deutsche Welle, 30 September 2022)

New deal to protect consumers and businesses
On 29 September, Germany's government announced that up to EUR 200 billion will be allocated to consumers and businesses to deal with rising energy prices. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the government will reactivate the economic stabilising fund and will “do everything it can” to bring the prices down. The fund is expected to restrict the price that Germans have to pay for gas and help in relieving inflation. A similar “defensive shield” was used support Germany’s economy during the COVID 19 pandemic and the resultant global financial crisis. So far, the government has unveiled EUR 100 billion in support measures to respond to the crisis. (“Germany to spend €200 billion to tackle high energy prices,” Euronews, 29 September 2022)

SPAIN
Tax imposed on those earning above three million per year
On 29 September, Spain’s Finance Minister, María Jesús Montero announced a tax for the wealthy. The temporary tax will affect the 0.1 percent of taxpayers, whose income exceeds EUR three million per year for 2023 and 2024. Citizens with income of EUR 3-5 million will be taxed 1.7 per cent and those whose income is in the EUR 5-10 million bracket will be taxed 2.1 per cent. People whose holdings exceed EUR 10 million will have to pay an extra 3.5 per cent in taxes. Montero said that these were solidarity measures to deal with increasing inflation and soaring energy prices. The taxes are likely to bring in EUR 3.1 billion in two years and the government aims to use it to introduce measures for people in lower income brackets. (Rodrigo Orihuela, “Spain to Increase Tax on the Rich With $2.9 Million in Assets,” Bloomberg, 29 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Sweden lifts arms export ban on Turkey
On 30 September, Sweden’s Inspectorate of Strategic Products (ISP) lifted a ban on export of military equipment to Turkey. The ban had been instituted in 2019 after Turkey’s crackdown on Syria against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. However, as a result of Sweden’s impending accession to the NATO, the countries are aiming to better bilateral relations. Turkey and Sweden reached an agreement regarding the export permits on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid in June. ISP said that the defence and security policy conditions in Tukey have changed considerably leading Sweden to take the decision. While ISP states that the export permits are being given from the third quarter of 2022, it did not specify which companies or products had been approved so far. (“Sweden resumes arms exports to Turkey after NATO membership bid,” Reuters, 30 September 2022)

EU energy ministers introduce measures to tackle rising energy price
On 30 September, the EU energy ministers approved a set of emergency measures to deal with soaring electricity prices and co-ordinate the responses by the member-states. The new package includes three major aspects. First, a pan-EU plan for power saving measures by which a five per cent target has been set for peak hours along with a voluntary 10 per cent reduction in overall electricity demands. Second, a cap on excess revenue, by which any earning beyond EUR 180 per megawatt-hour will be collected by the governments. Third, a mechanism to capture extra profit made by fossil fuel companies, whereby a 33 per cent tax will be imposed on profits made by the companies in the 2022 fiscal year. According to the package, the funds obtained from the second and third measure will be redirected as subsidies, reduced tariff and income support to households and companies under stress.On this issue, Czech Republic's Industry and Trade Minister, Jozef Sikela said: "We completed another part of the puzzle but definitely not the last one... This is an immediate patch." (Jorge Liboreiro, and Alice Tidey, “EU approves mandatory energy savings and cap on company revenues,” Euronews, 30 September, 2022)

European Commission updates its eLeniency platform
On 30 September, the European Commission upgraded its “eLeniency” platform which allowed parties to submit documents as part of leniency, settlement and non-cartel cooperation proceedings. Till now, access to some sensitive document like corporate statements was available only in the Commission premises. However, because of the new update, the commission will be able to display documents online. It also enables easier and more efficient interaction between the parties. Users will have to be pre-authorised by the Commission on a case-to-case basis, and the sensitive documents will not have copy, print or download functions. (“Antitrust: Commission upgrades eLeniency tool to grant companies online access to leniency and settlement documents,” ec,europa.eu, 30 September 2022)

Croatia and the Netherlands reach 90 per cent gas storage
On 30 September, Croatia said that its only gas storage had reached 90 per cent storage capacity. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said that the rate of storage was going “according to plan.” Dutch energy company Gasunie that told BNR Newsradio that Netherland’s gas storage is also 90 per cent. A spokesperson from the company assured that no gas shortages are expected in the upcoming winter. Both Croatia and the Netherlands have thus surpassed the EU’s compulsory minimum requirement of hitting 80 per cent of storage before November 2022. (Zoran Radosavljevic, “Croatia’s sole gas storage at 90%, PM says,” EURACTIV, 30 September 2022; Sofia Stuart Leeson, “Dutch gas storage above EU target, now at 90% capacity,” EURACTIV, 30 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 219
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 29 September, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) reported that the 20,000 conscripted Russian would be accommodated in Belarus to be deployed in Ukraine. The new soldiers were hosted on the premises of abandoned farms, warehouses, and hangars. The deployed soldiers were provided with Russian arms and ammunition from Belarussian warehouses. Logistics of soldiers and military equipment are done through Belarus’ railway and mobilized civilian trucks and cars.

On 30 September, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the Swiss people to increase their support for Ukraine and to stop being a neutral country. He invited Switzerland to participate in supporting Ukraine’s Fast Recovery Plan with technical and financial aid. 

Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported through a Facebook post that the Ukraine had received 16 new drones as a part of the Army of Drones initiative. The military showed gratitude to the project and the Ministry of Digital Transformation for its support and those who donated the drones. The drones will be used to conduct reconnaissance missions and destroy enemy forces.

Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Starukh, posted on his telegram that Russians launched a rocket attack on a humanitarian convoy while it was out of a regional centre. Rescuers, medics and other services are helping at the site of the attack, where one woman was reported to be injured.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 30 September, LENTA RU reported that Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, held a meeting with the Members of the Russian Security Council on the topic of mistakes made during mobilization. He demanded the council rectify the errors immediately and calmly. Putin said that those that were mistakenly called for military conscription would be returned. He also added that he would not tolerate any more mistakes, and that those made must be corrected.

On 29 September, Putin signed a decree that recognized the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent, which would be accepted as a step toward acceding to Russia. The document stated that the two regions had referendums according to the principles and norms of international law. The decree also contained that the regions had overwhelming support from the local residents and should be recognized as independent territories. On 30 September, He signed four agreements of admission of Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as new territories to the Russian Federation at a special ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace.

On the same day, Russia’s Permanent Mission to the UN accused the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, of being a double standard. The Russian Permanent Mission said that Guterres had voiced concerns only over Ukraine issues but remained silent about Ukraine’s actions in Donbas since 2014, the crisis in Kosovo and the US and NATO occupying part of Syria. They accused Guterres of being influenced by the western agenda and not discussing other issues. 

On 30 September, the Head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, blamed the US for the incident as it would be the most beneficial due to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline explosion. He said that the US immediately started assigning blame for the explosion. He also compared the incident with the CIA’s attack on Nicaragua’s oil infrastructure in Puerto Sandino in 1983 for its benefits. Russia blames the US for being the mastermind of the explosion as it would sell its more expensive oil to Europe if Russian oil were out of the picture. However, the US blamed Russia for sabotaging its pipeline.

On the same day, Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed his country’s alliance with Russia at the credentials presentations ceremony involving ambassadors of foreign countries. He said Belarus would stand firm with Russia. Their relations will be much tighter than that of NATO states. He also announced that Belarus would not be involved in direct conflict with Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 28 September, European Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen announced eighth set of sanctions on Russia in response to Russia’s continuing referendum calls, posing nuclear threat and mobilization efforts. The Commission termed the referendum as a sham and that it would not be acknowledging the outcome of it. The focus of the sanctions imposed are, first, an updated list of individuals and organizations. Second, is banning more Russian imports, decreasing exports to Russia, and prohibiting services availed to Russia, and stop EU citizens from holding positions in the governing bodies of Russian public enterprises. Third, a price cap on Russian oil to keep the market stable and to target Russia’s oil revenue. Last, creation of a list of individuals who are helping Russia navigate around the sanctions. 
 
On 30 September, the European Commission issued new guidelines on issuing visas for Russian citizens and regulations to be followed at external borders. The guidelines were presented upon gathering of Russians at the European border after mobilization decree. It includes stricter scrutiny of visa applications for Russians such as short-term visas, inspect issued visas at borders and cancel if required, adopt a synchronised approach in handling Russian citizens at the borders to avoid entry of the barred individuals. Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson announced the new guidelines, highlighting Europe’s commitment in providing asylum to those in need of protection.
 
On 30 September, Finland closed its border for Russians holding tourist visas. Finland’s border with Russia is the longest one among all EU members and is the easiest route for Russians who were fleeing the mandatory conscription. Due to this measure, checkpoints along the border witnessed long lines which remained till midnight.
 
On the same day, US President Joe Biden refused to acknowledge Russia’s referendum and its result. Russia’s annexation of four territories of Ukraine after the referendum has been met with further economic sanctions from the US. The sanctions target shell companies which are helping Russia evade sanctions and families of top Kremlin officials have been included in the list of sanctioned individuals.   
 
On 30 September, Jamie Lee Henry and her wife Anna Gabrielian were accused of conspiracy and release of health information of patients at a military hospital. Henry is a US army major doctor and Gabrielian is a civilian doctor. Gabrielian is said to have approached the Russian embassy in the US after Russia invaded Ukraine and had proposed to share information with regards to US military training to help Ukraine and how army hospitals are set up in conflict zones. She was able to access this information through her wife. Henry later met their contact and extended support and even thought of joining the Russian army. Both are charged with violation of HIPPA and if found guilty they would each serve a total of 15 years for all the charges. The lawyers of the couple and Russian authorities have not responded to this yet. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 29 September, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his views on Russia’s annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Guterres condemned this move citing the UN Charter which states that “Any annexation of a State’s territory by another State resulting from the threat or use of force is a violation of the Principles of the UN Charter and international law.”. He also referred to the “Friendly Relations Declaration” of 24 October 1970 which outlines that a region cannot be annexed by another State using force and such a move will not be recognised and will be considered illegal. Guterres also reminded Russia of its position as a permanent member of the UNSC and its duty to uphold the charter. He said that the annexation will be considered illegal and that it goes against what the international community stands for.
 
On 30 September, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida criticized Russia’s annexation of four regions of Ukrainian a telephone call with Ukraine President Zelensky and assured Japan’s support in the war along with the G7 nations to further sanctions on Russia. and He proposed to initiate a discussion on rebuilding Ukraine and reopen its embassy in Kyiv to promote cooperation. 
 
On 30 September, the Uzbekistan government assured to not deport Russians fleeing the mandatory conscription. The Foreign Ministry expressed its support towards the principle of territorial integrity and respecting one’s sovereignty and peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict. In a statement, it said, "...Foreign citizens who have not broken the law are not subject to forced deportation."   While official numbers have not been released, it is expected to be over a thousand if we look at the numbers from Uzbekistan’s neighbours.
 
A report published by BBC on 30 September talks about how lower prices of Russian oil are acting as an incentive for Asian countries to buy in a time of high oil prices. India and China now collectively import more than half of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. Myanmar has said that it would be buying Russian oil and Sri Lanka has had three deliveries during the time of its financial crisis. Whereas Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased oil and crude imports from Russia. At such a juncture the G7 proposal of a price cap is putting a shadow on oil prices and Russia has taken a stance to not export oil to those who support the price caps. While the amount exported is significant to Russia, it is a very small part of the overall energy imports of both China and India. China has signed various deals to increase imports of LNG from Russia and the completion of the Power of Siberia pipeline will make Russia China’s largest gas supplier. As of now one of the main challenges to buying Russian oil is the mode of payment.

References
Belarus to Accommodate 20,000 Russian Conscripts,” Kyiv Post, 30 September 2022
It is important that Switzerland supports Ukraine - Volodymyr Zelenskyi during a conversation with the university community,” president.gov.uk, 30 September 2022
Sixteen new drones sent to Ukrainian soldiers as part of Army of Drones project,” Ukrinform, 30 September 2022
Enemy hits humanitarian convoy in Zaporizhzhia region. Casualties reported,” Ukrinform, 30 September 2022
Putin demanded to correct all mistakes made during partial mobilization,” LENTA RU, 30 September 2022
Russia recognized the independence of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions,” LENTA RU, 30 September 2022
Russian diplomats describe UN chief’s statement on referendums as ‘double standards’,” TASS, 30 September 2022
Russian security chief names ‘obvious’ beneficiary of pipeline rupture,” RT, 30 September 2022
Four treaties on admission of Russia’s new territories to be signed Friday — Kremlin,” TASS, 30 September 2022
Belarus to be together with Russia, their union tighter than NATO — Lukashenko,” TASS, 30 September 2022
Press statement by President von der Leyen on a new package of restrictive measures against Russia”, ec.europa.eu, 28 September 2022
Guidelines on general visa issuance in relation to Russian applicants and controls of Russian citizens at the external borders”, ec.europa.eu, 30 September 2022
EU says 'stricter assessment' needed for Russians seeking travel visas”, Reuters, 30 September 2022
Ukraine war: US will never recognise Russia's annexation attempts, Biden vows”, BBC, 30 September 2022
U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia in response to Ukraine annexation”, cnbc, 30 September 2022
Ukraine-Russia war: US army doctor and wife charged with Russia spying”, BBC, 30 September 2022
Finnish border closed to Russians with tourist visas”, apnews, 30 September 2022
THE SECRETARY-GENERAL -- REMARKS TO PRESS ON RUSSIAN DECISION ON ANNEXATION OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY”, ukraine.un.org, 29 September 2022
Japan PM condemns Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine”, apnews, 30 September 2022
Uzbekistan says it won't deport Russians fleeing conscription”, Reuters, 30 September 2022
Ukraine crisis: Russian oil and gas turn to Asia”, BBC, 30 September 2022


30 September 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #320

Albania Cyberattacks: State and regional response | War in Ukraine: Day 218

Photo : REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/ILLUSTRATION


IN FOCUS
By Madhura S Mahesh

Albania Cyberattacks: State and regional response
On 26 September the Washington Post reported on the interview with Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama on the cyberattack. He said: “Based on the investigation, the scale of the attack was such that the aim behind it was to completely destroy our infrastructure back to the full paper age, and at the same time, wipe out all our data.” On 24 September in the UNGA session, President Edi Rama urged the UN and the UNSC to take stricter actions against state-sponsored cyberattacks. He also proposed to come together to build a stronger security system and resilience to ward off such attacks. On 21 September, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a report on the cyber attacks by Iran against Albania’s government. On 08 September, Albania became the first country to cut diplomatic ties after Iran-sponsored groups launched a cyberattack on 15 July. The Iranian government has denied any involvement and has condemned Albania’s decision to cut diplomatic ties.
 
The attacks
On 15 July 2022 Albanian government services and websites became a target of cyberattacks. With over 95 per cent of its services online, the attack caused a huge disruption in government infrastructure. HomeLand Justice an anti-MEK group and a network of Iranian hackers claimed responsibility, stating the attack was done to oppose   Albania for hosting the Mujahideen E-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian dissident group.
 
The attack comes a month after MEK and Israel allegedly carried out attacks on Tehran municipality and the MEK was set to host the Free Iran World Summit in Albania in July. The HomeLand Justice group following the attack started to spread anti-MEK messages and leaked the hacked information on websites and social media profiles created. This continued till mid-August where it was conducting polls to let the people decide on what information should be released.
 
On 09 September another attack occurred where the Total Information Management System (TIMS) was shut down. This system was developed alongside the US under the Bush administration in 2005 to keep a track of those entering and leaving Albania. This led to a delay in entry at Albania’s borders and forced the officials to make an entry manually on 10 and 11 of September. Prime Minister Rama has accused Iran to be behind this attack also.
 
State and regional response
First, state response. After the attack on 15 July, the Albanian government launched an investigation into this matter. With the help of Microsoft and the FBI, the government was able to conduct a thorough investigation into this matter which shaped their decision to cut ties with Iran. The results were formally published by Microsoft on 08 September and by the FBI on 21 September It found that the attackers through splitting into four groups have collectively worked to be inside the system for 14 months.  The initial entry was said to be carried out by EUROPIUM a known associate of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) as early as May 2021. The entry was possible due to a vulnerability on the SharePoint Server.
 
By July 2021 the attackers had strengthened their access to the server and started exfiltrating mail from October 2021 to January 2022. Another group was said to continue to exfiltrate mail from November 2021 till May 2022. The tool used to carry this out has been identified as one that is commonly used by actors associated with MOIS. The actual attack was carried out by infecting the government websites with ransomware and then introducing malware which intended to wipe out the data. Microsoft found that this was a method that was used by actors sponsored by Iran. Both had links to Iran and its associated groups. Other information that was uncovered was that the attackers were working from Iran and that the sectors that were attacked aligned with Iran’s interests. When the response by the HomeLand Justice Group was investigated similarities were highlighted in the way Israel and the MEK responded to the attack on Iran. The targets selected were like the ones that were attacked in Iran which suggested that it was deliberate retaliation. Simultaneously Albania was strengthening its cyber defence with the help of NATO and the US. Microsoft was also collaborating with the government for further protection and strengthening of its cyber security infrastructure.
 
Second, Albania has received support from NATO and its members. In a statement, NATO said that “We strongly condemn such malicious cyber activities designed to destabilize and harm the security of an Ally and disrupt the daily lives of citizens.” After the second attack, NATO is discussing if Article 5 of NATO applies to cyber-attacks. The US imposed further sanctions on MOIS on 09 September with regards to the attacks in July and is working with Albania to further strengthen its cyber defence and security.

References
Tim Starks, “How Albania reckoned with alleged Iranian hackers,” Washinton Post, 26 September 2022
NATO TO FURTHER SUPPORT ALBANIA AFTER CYBER ATTACKS,” CyberSecurity Connect, 26 September 2022
"Iranian State Actors Conduct Cyber Operations Against the Government of Albania," cisa.gov, 23 September 2022
"
Tirana prosecution bans publication of personal data given from hackers," Albanian Daily News, 19 September 2022
Fjori Sinoruka and Vladimir Karaj, “New Cyber-Attacks on Albania Cause Border Chaos,” BalkanInsight, 12 September 2022
Sean Lyngaas, “Albania blames Iran for second cyberattack since July,” CNN, 12 September 2022
Microsoft investigates Iranian attacks against the Albanian government,” Microsoft, 08 September 2022
US imposes new sanctions on Iran over Albanian cyberattack,” AlJazeera, 09 September 2022


IN BRIEF 
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh

BULGARIA
Opinion polls for the upcoming Bulgarian election released
On 29 September, the results of the opinion polls for the upcoming elections on 02 October was released. The opinion polls reflected the political turmoil of Bulgaria with a prediction of a coalition government involving more than six parties. With a 24 per cent chance, the Citizens of European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) leads in the opinion polls, but predictions show that this is not enough to establish a majority. GERB is led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and his scandal, and corruption-filled tenure is the reason for Bulgaria’s political crisis. This is the fourth election in 18 months and was called after Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and his government were ousted in June 2022. The people of Bulgaria are now asked to choose a government that will lead the country through the harsh winter and be able to face issues such as inflation, high energy prices and the Ukraine war. (Alexander Andreev, “Bulgaria's election: What's in store ahead of a difficult winter?,” Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2022)

GREECE
Greece signs a deal with Total Energies for gas supply in winter
On 29 September, Greece’s largest gas utility company, DEPA Commercial, signed a deal with the French energy firm Total Energies, to receive LNG from France, in the upcoming  winter if any need arises. The agreement states that Greece will receive two LNG cargoes monthly for five months. As per the agreement, Greece would buy the LNG at a benchmark price. The deal is Greece’s measure toward decreasing Russian gas dependency as it receives Russian gas through the Turk Stream pipeline. According to the Greek Energy Ministry, Greece would receive ten terawatt-hours of energy for five months and has the right to reject the purchase, after paying the cancellation fee. (“Greek utility DEPA clinches winter LNG deal with TotalEnergies,” ekathimerini, 29 September 2022)
 
THE UK
The UK celebrates World Maritime Day
On 29 September, the UK celebrated World Maritime Day. Three developments were announced by the Transport ministry regarding the celebrations. First, the winners of the second round of competition were announced where GBP 12 million was divided between 121 UK corporations. Second, the third leg of the competition was launched by the Transport Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan. GBP 60 million for the same and will start from April 2023 and go on till March 2025. GBP 60 million for the same and will start from April 2023 and go on till March 2025. The competition is held to encourage innovations in maritime technology with a focus on emission-free technology and comes under UK’s plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Third, an additional GBP 206 million was given to support the UK Shipping Office for Reducing Emissions (SHORE) project which aims to increase maritime jobs and zero emission sailing. (“UK marks World Maritime Day with £60 million boost for clean shipping,” gov.uk, 29 September 2022) 
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Litigation against AI simplified
On 29 September, the European Commission announced the AI Liability Directive, a litigation process against harm caused by artificial intelligence (AI) products. As per the act, the litigation process for any injuries caused by drones on other products using AI will be more straightforward. The Directive will include a clause known as “presumption of causality” by which connection between the AI link of the product and the accident caused must be established  This will not only help people get compensation but also set a liability factor for such products. The products under this include voice assistants, self-driving cars and search engines, all of which heavily depend on AI technology and are an integral part of their functioning. If the Directive is adopted, it will supplement the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, a one-of-a-kind act which sets boundaries on the use of AI systems. (Liv McMahon, “EU Commission to make it easier to sue over AI productsBBC, 29 September 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Cheaper electric costs in Spain deemed unfair by the French aluminium industry
On 29 September, EURACTIV reported on the French aluminium industry’s complaint about the energy price cap in Spain being unfair for the rest of the European nations. Spain and Portugal had agreed with the European Commission to be an exception by creating a temporary energy price cap till 31 May 2023, thereby reducing consumer costs. As per the agreement, energy price was capped at EUR 50 per megawatt-hour. The move has been deemed unfair by the French aluminium industry as the rest of the continent is going through a hike in energy prices. They called for anti-dumping measures that do not let the exporters import large amounts of a product and flood the domestic industry with it.  On this issue, a delegate from Aluminium France Federation, Cyrille Mounier advocated a gas price cap for all the countries, to establish a level playing field and to prevent French consumers from going to Spanish sources for supply. (Paul Messad and Vlad Makszimov, “French aluminium industry wants ‘anti-dumping’ measures over Spain’s cheap electric,” EURACTIV, 29 September 2022)

Slovakia helps Hungary with border protection against illegal migration
On 28 September, Slovakia’s Interior Minister Roman Mikulec said that his country would help strengthen the Schengen borders in Hungary and Serbia to stop the entry of illegal migrants. He also said that if such backup is provided to Hungary and other European countries, Czech Republic and Austria would be able to lift the newly placed border controls on the Slovakian border. Additionally, he mentioned that if all Schengen countries act in a similar fashion, secondary migration into the EU can be curbed. However, the EU and the European Commission has ignored illegal migration issue, refusing to fund border protection with barbed wires and walls. (“Slovakia to Strengthen Border-protection Cooperation with Hungary,” Hungary today, 29 September 2022)

The EU to monitor Greece for violation of the rule of law and wiretapping scandals
On 28 September, the EU expressed concern about Greece’s government wiretapping the opposition, thus harming the country’s democracy. Greece’s main opposition SYRIZA-PS party leader, Alexis Tsipras met with the European Commissioner for Values and European Transparency, Vera Jourova, and the President of the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs of the European Parliament, Juan Lopez Aguilar, in Brussels to discuss illegal surveillance done by the Greek government. The EU noted that Greece had not followed rule of law which is one of the main pillars of the EU’s values. Earlier, in August, Greece’s Prime Minister Kriyakos Mitsotakis admitted that the country’s intelligence was wiretapping the opposition PASOK party leader Nikos Androulakis but denied having any knowledge about the same. . However due to the breach, the European Parliament and the Commission are closely monitoring the developments in the scandal and violations of the rule of law. (Ahmet Gencturk, “EU shares Greek opposition’s concerns over wiretapping, worsening rule of law in country,” Anadolu Agency, 29 September 2022)  
     
The Commission warns against Malta’s golden passport to the ECJ
On 29 September, the European Commission announced that it would take Malta to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for its “golden passports” program. Malta, which is a EU member-state allows non-EU investors to buy their citizenship. If the ECJ rules against Malta, the island country will be signed a substantial amount. According to the EU, Malta has become a haven for criminals and has made access to the EU easily. Malta remains the only country to offer “golden passports”. The court case will let the ECJ settle the matter between the Commission and Malta. However, the Commission appreciated Malta’s decision to restrict citizenship for Russians and Belarussians following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “positive step.” (“EU takes Malta to court over 'golden passport' scheme,” Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 218
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground

On 29 September, Ukraine's Economy Ministry reported on the increase in its exports to the EU in the first three quarters of 2022, since 2021. On this issue the Deputy Minister of Economy, Taras Kachka highlighted the measures taken by the EU such as abolition of quotas and customs duties, the European Commission establishing the "solidarity lines" and the strengthening of customs infrastructure capacities which led to the increase. However, he also mentioned that while there has been an increase in trade with the EU, the general level of Ukrainian exports has decreased to almost half of pre-war levels.

On the same day, the Head of the President’s office, Andriy Yermak announced another prisoner exchange conducted between Russia and Ukraine. As a part of the exchange, Ukraine received six people- four marines and two civilians. Yermack remarked that negotiating such exchanges is “difficult work,” however, Ukraine committed to bring back all the people imprisoned by Russia. So far, 235 Ukrainians had returned from captivity in September.

On 27 September, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK). Signed as a part of the IAEA General Conference, the understanding will facilitate cooperation on capacity building through information exchange in nuclear and radiation safety. The agreement which will be valid for five years includes the possibility of conducting joint projects, meetings, seminars, and other services. Acting Head of the State Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority, Oleg Korikov said: "We are grateful for the international support, which is so necessary for the State Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform its functions in the current conditions.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 September, according to President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov the annexation of the four regions in the LPR, DPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will be formalized in a ceremony. The signing ceremony to incorporate the new territories into Russia will be conducted at the Saint George’s Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace.

On the same issue, LPR’s ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, spoke about the annexation of LPR into Russia. According to him, LPR might become a part of Russia as a republic, such that it had autonomous rights under Russia’s control. The details of the annexation, rights and duties, the system of power and leadership of these areas will be released in legislative documents once the integration process begins. On 28 September, the Russia-backed leaders of the four regions were invited to Moscow. 

On 29 September, Kommersant reported on the increased interest in Russians to buy cryptocurrency and hardware crypto wallets. Following the partial mobilization order, demand, for the cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar has increased. The co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation said that most of the exchanges were occurring through p2p exchanges like Binance. Crypto wallet manufacturer, Tangem confirmed the increased demand for physical crypto wallets and mentioned that daily sale of the same on the Ozon marketplace has tripled since 20 September.

On 29 September, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Maria Zakharova addressed the leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark. Referring to the areas where the leaks have been reported, Zakharova said: “That is the exclusive economic zone of Denmark and Sweden, the very NATO-centric countries that are stuffed with US-made weapons, which are fully controlled by American intelligence agencies.” 

On the same day, the Levada Center polling agency published poll results that indicate a drop in Putin’s approval rating in Russia. While in the initial days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 83 per cent of Russians approved of Putin’s actions as president. However, in the recent survey, conducted between 22 September to 28 September, his ratings dropped to 77 per cent. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 29 September, with rising concern about the damages to Nord Stream 1 pipelines being deliberate sabotages, NATO issued a warning. It said that if critical infrastructure of any one of the 30 member states or allies are attacked, NATO would retaliate. The warning came after Sweden's coastguards confirmed a fourth leak in the pipeline. Even though NATO did blame anyone for the damage, it said that its retaliation, if required would be "united and determined."

On the same day, in Hungary, Viktor Orban's Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas spoke about the eighth round of EU sanctions, proposed by the European Commission on 28 September. He said that Hungary already had done enough to bolster European unity and would not support the recent sanctions if energy is one of its components.

Also on 29 September, Finland announced it would be closing its borders to Russian tourists. Other than Belarus, Finland was the only state amongst those sharing major borders with Russia still allowing Russian tourists. However, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that Putin's recent mobilization announcement which resulted in a surge of Russians at border crossings impacted the decision to ban tourists greatly. To visit Finland, Russians will now have to apply in advance and provide an invitation from personal or business contacts.

On 28 September, also because of Putin's Mobilization Order, the US urged US citizens staying in Russia to leave immediately. The US embassy in Russia issued a security alert regarding the same and asked the people to make independent travel arrangements 'as soon as possible' while limited transportation options were still available. Bulgaria’s Foreign Ministry made a similar announcement. Additionally, it advised those deciding to stay in Russia to be extremely vigilant, avoid mass gatherings and keep a keen eye on the daily developments. Poland and Estonia also issued similar advice for their respective citizens residing or vacationing in Russia.

Also on 28 September, the US Department of Defence (DoD) announced around USD 1.1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine. The new package comes under the Ukraine Security Assistant Initiative (USAI). Unlike the Presidential Drawdown Fund (PDF), which procures capabilities from the DoD, the USAI sources it from the industry. The announcement indicates US's commitment to support Ukraine in the long term. The new package will provide 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition, 150 armoured vehicles (HMMWVs), more tactical vehicles, trucks and trailers, radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems, communications systems, body armor, and other field equipment. It will also provide funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment of Ukraine's forces.

On 28 September, a meeting of the Ukrainian Defence Contact Group was hosted. The armaments directors of the 45 member states, the EU, and NATO attended the meeting. The meeting committed their long-term support for Ukraine and outlined the approach to increase the production of long-range weapons, ammunition, and other capabilities. Smaller working groups will be established to monitor and ensure progress in these fields. Additionally, the importance of standardizing equipment, increasing sustainment capacity including repair activity, and increasing accessibility was also discussed. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 29 September, Business Standard published a report on the India’s LNG supplies. It said that due to dwindling supplies from Russia’s Gazprom, India is reaching out to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US to secure more LNG. In 2018, a subsidiary of Gazprom based in Singapore, Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore (GMTS) had signed a deal with the Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) for the supply of 2.5 million tonnes of LNG for 20 years. However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the supply through the GMTS has been declining, prompting India to look for other sources.

On 29 September, H&M the world’s second-largest fashion retailer from Sweden, launched a  SEK two billion cost-saving drive. H&M’s exit from Russia contributed to about half of the profit drop for the country. In the third quarter of 2022, the company’s pretax profit dropped from SEK 6.09 billion to SEK 689 million. Less than expected profits for the company, soaring input costs, and lesser consumer spending were the other reasons for the low turnover.

References
Another Ukraine–Russia prisoner swap held,” Ukrinform, 29 September 2022
Ukraine’s exports to EU in Q1-3 2022 exceed pre-war figures - economy ministry,” Ukrinform, 29 September 2022
Meeting Of National Armaments Directors of Member Countries of Ukraine Defense Contact Group Held in Brussels,” Kyiv Post, 29 September 2022
The nuclear regulators of Ukraine and Finland signed a Memorandum on cooperation and information exchange in the field of nuclear and radiation safety,” snriu.gov.ua, 28 September 2022
Kremlin Announces Ukraine Annexation Ceremony for Friday,” The Moscow Times, 29 September 2022
Revealed the timing of the entry of the LPR into Russia,” LENTA.RU, 29 September 2022
Donbass republic and Kherson region appeal to Moscow,” RT, 28 September 2022
With wallets to go, Citizens stock up on cryptocurrencies,” Kommersant, 29 September 2022
Russian diplomat says Nord Stream leaks occurred in zone controlled by US intelligence,” TASS, 29 September 2022
Russia issues emergency call to UN Security Council,” RT, 28 September 2022
Putin’s Ratings Drop on Ukraine Draft,” The Moscow Times, 29 September 2022
Approval of Institutions, Ratings of Parties and Politicians,” levada.ru, 28 September 2022
Jam M. Olsen, “NATO believes Baltic Sea gas pipeline leaks were sabotage,” AP News, 30 September 2022
Hungary cannot support any new EU energy sanctions against Russia – govt,” Reuters, 29 September 2022
Francesca Gillett, “Ukraine war: Finland closes border to Russian tourists,” BBC, 29 September 2022
Kelly Hooper, “U.S. embassy in Moscow urges American citizens to leave Russia 'immediately',” POLITICO, 08 September 2022
$1.1 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine,” defense.gov, 28 September 2022
India reaches out to US, Iraq for LNG after Gazprom reduces supply: Report,” Business Standard, 29 September 2022
Anna Ringstrom, “H&M profits hit by surging costs and wary shoppers,” Euronews, 29 September 2022


29 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #319

Italy’s far-right wins 2022 Elections: Result analysis | War in Ukraine: Day 217

First female Commander heads ISS; 2022 migrant pattern similar to 2015 in the Netherlands; The EU funds Cyprus for fisheries programme

Photo : NIAS Team


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Italy’s far-right wins 2022 Elections: Result analysis and the complexity in its electoral system

On 25 September, the voting for Italy’s general elections took place. Amongst the four competing parties, the Right alliance emerged as the clear winner with a majority in the Chamber of Duties and Deputies of the Senate. The Right alliance was headed by Giorgia Meloni from the Brothers of Italy, joined by League, Forza-Italia, and Nio Moderati parties winning 237 seats in the lower house and 115 seats in the upper house. Whereas the left alliance led by Enrico Letta from the Democratic Party along with the Green/left alliance, Più Europa, and Impegno Civico were able to gain only 85:44 seats in both houses.

Election result analysis
Italy’s major parties who have been part of the internal political crisis are the Five Star Movement, the League, the Democratic Party, Forza Italia (previously center-right), and the Brothers of Italy. Comparing 2013, 2018, and 2022 elections, the Brothers of Italia which began competing in 2013, with two per cent, increased to 4.3 per cent in 2018 and gained a major share of votes in the 2022 elections with 26 per cent. Whereas, the League and Five Star Movement who have been at the center of Italy’s political crisis won a major number of votes only in the 2018 elections with 17.4 per cent and 32.7 percent. In the case of the Democratic Party, which won the 2013 elections with 25.4 per cent dropped down to 19 and has been consistent with the same proportion in 2022. Lastly, Forza Italia, which was formerly the center-right party led by Silvio Berlusconi (Four times Prime Minister) has declined from 21.6 per cent in 2013 to 8.11 in the 2022 elections.

Italy’s ever-changing electoral system
The passing of reforms has never stopped in the Italian Parliament. It began in the 1980s to bring stability to the electoral systems but had only become more complex. The 2018 elections were held under the Rosato law which was approved in 1993, where 75 per cent of the Members of Parliament (MPs) were chosen under single-member constituencies and 25 per cent under proportional representation. In the end, no majority was obtained due to close competition between the competing parties. In 2022, the elections were held under the Rosatellum bis law enacted in 2017 where 62.5 per cent will be elected through proportional representation and 32.5 per cent through a first-past-the-post basis. Out of which 12 MPs and four senators can be elected by overseas citizens and for a party to get a seat in the Parliament it has to gain three per cent and for a coalition 10. Under the new system MPs and senators have “multiple candidacies,” where one can compete in several constituencies as a single member and as part of the coalition. It also reduced the voting age limit from 25 to 18 in the 2019 reform. The latest is the 2020 reform, which reduced “the number of MPs in the Parliament from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the Senate.” With the far-right claiming a clear victory, uncertainty lies if the coalition will sustain for five years or if the diverging interest will crack down on the unity and add to the continuing political chaos.

References
Marie Pouzadoux, “How does the Italian electoral system work?,” 27 September 2022
Antonio Voce and Seán Clarke, “Italian election 2022: live official results,”
Gianfranco Baldini, Andrea Pedrazzani, and Luca Pinto “How Italy experienced (yet another) electoral system and why it may soon change it again,” 08 May 2018
Giuseppe Ricotta “Populists Gain in Italian ElectionBookmark Print Share,” Lazard Asset Management, 06 May 2018


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

CYPRUS
Cyprus receives funding for the fisheries programme
On 28 September the European Commission allotted EUR 38.8 million  from the European Maritime Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund (EMFAF) Programme to Cypriot Programme Fisheries 2021-2027 of Cyprus. This funding will be used to apply the EU Common Fisheries Policy and other priorities from the European Green Deal and help Cyprus to transition its fishing and aquaculture sector into a sustainable through innovation and digital growth. The fund is also aimed  towards marine protection and boosting profits. The Commission also looks to invest in superior fishing vessels which have good safety, efficiency, and working environment and improve decarbonisation. Cyprus will now be able to comply with the landing obligation as the fund also looks to advance IT tools and their use. (“European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund 2021-2027: Commission adopts €38.3 million programme for Cyprus”, ec.europa.eu, 28 September 2022)  

THE NETHERLANDS
The number of asylum applications equals the levels of the 2015 migrant crisis
On 28 September new data was released on the number of pending applications before the Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) which reflected the 2015 data. Around 30,000 applications have been received in the Netherlands, which are yet to be responded. The lag was due to lack of funds to IND resulting lay off of staff. T he main reasons for this crisis is from Netherlands housing crisis and refusal of some localities to house migrants for the same. There has been a call for a review of the asylum-granting system of the Netherlands and the preferential treatment of Ukraine asylum applicants. (“Backlog for Dutch asylum applicants as high as during the 2015 migrant crisis”, euronews, 28 September 2022)

THE UK
Bank of England intervenes to prevent economic fallout but Treasury reject the move
On 28 September the Bank of England intervened in the financial market to prevent a financial crisis. The Bank announced that it will buy the necessary amount of government bonds to maintain interest rates and return orders in the markets. The tax cuts amounting to USD 45 billion announced on 23 September created panic among investors as the government planned to borrow funds to finance the budget leading to fall in the pound value and increased borrowing costs. The Banks plan of buying bonds is to prevent an economic fallout and to avoid increase in interest rates to protect the pound and curb inflation. These uncertainties are said to hit homeowners greatly as they will be paying more mortgages in the coming days. The Treasury rejected the bank’s move and said that the government will still go forward with the budget as it deems to result in economic benefit. (“Bank of England intervenes to avert credit crunch, economic fallout“, Washington Post & ”Bank of England steps in to calm markets“, BBC, 28 September 2022) 

ECONOMY
IMF rebukes new budget plans
On 28 September the IMF issued a statement criticizing the new tax plans introduced by the government. As per IMF cuts would increase the cost-of-living crisis and existing economic inequality. After these criticisms, the pound fell to USD 1.06 after it reached a low of USD 1.03. One of IMF’s key role  is to help member countries through  early economic caution. This indicates the need to address the larger concern of other member states which is likely to be affected due to UK’s crisis. Adnan Mazarei, an ex-deputy director of the IMF said that it was rare for the organization to comment on risky policies of the G7 countries. In a statement, the IMF asked that the UK government  to re-examine the tax measures in the 23 November budget. (“IMF openly criticises UK government tax plans”, BBC, 28 September)
 
SPACE
Change of command in the International Space Station
On 28 September Samantha Cristoforetti, an Italian astronaut assumed the command of the International Space Station (ISS) from Oleg Artemyev. She is the first female and the fifth European astronaut to take command. In her statement, despite tensions on land, astronauts have worked side by side in the ISS which Cristoforetti hopes to continue. In her stint as commander, she will be working with the members of Expedition 68 and will undertaking operations with them. She will also be in contact with the team on Earth to ensure operations smoothly. (“Commander Cristoforetti: International Space Station is a 'beacon of hope'”, Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2022)

REGIONAL
HIMARS rocket system showcased in Latvia
On 28 September the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) was demonstrated in Latvia as a part of a military training exercise. The system was flown in from Germany to show NATO’s commitment to safeguarding the Baltics. According to the Commander of the National Armed Forces Leonids Kalnins, the exercise boosts confidence in taking the swift action by allies in times of crisis. The US Ambassador to Latvia John Carwile reiterated NATO’s collective defence strategy (Article 5) and its importance to the allies. After this exercise, the three Baltic states ordered for the import of the HIMARS. The rocket launcher is of American origin and has helped greatly in Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion. (“NATO demonstrates HIMARS rocket system in Latvia in a display of force”, euronews, 28 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 217
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 28 September, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy addressed the UNSC and urged the international community to strengthen its response against Russia's recent actions. He said that Russia conducting the illegal referendums in Ukraine’s occupied regions is violating the UN charter. In the same context, he requested the members of the UNSC not to delay action and said that Ukraine will need more support from the international community if they have to protest against the referendums. Melitopol mayor Ivan Federov alleged that only 0.5 per cent of the total residents in Zaporizhzhia had taken part in the voting process. 

On the same day, Zelenskyy spoke with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He thanked him for continuous mediation efforts by Turkey, especially with regard to the recent exchange of 250 prisoners of war from Russia. Turkey’s stance on denouncing the referendums was appreciated by Zelenskyy. Erdogan said that would be ready to mediate the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

On 28 September, AP News reported that according to Zelenskyy, referendums are seen as an additional provocation and any peace talks with Russia would be difficult if Putin is in power, trying to annex the four regions in LPR, DPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry called on the EU, NATO, and G7 member states to impose more sanctions on Russia and increase military aid to Ukraine. 

On 28 September, Ukraine spokesperson to Republic of Crimea, Tamila Tasheva, stated that 1500draft notices were issues to Crimean Tartars, and those issued were unproportional to the population of the Tatars present and that the actual number of mobilized people from Crimea was unclear. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 September, on the issue of the annexation of Ukrainian territories into Russia, Senator Olga Kovitidi warned that even though the referendums were completed the entire process of annexation might take five to 10 years. She referred to how long it took for Crimea to be annexed to substantiate her claim. However, she said that some issues especially related to social support and social security would be resolved quickly. Kovitidi remarked me after Russia published the results of the referendums.

On 27 September, Russia released the results of the referendums held in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Even though the efficacy and validity of the results have been questioned, as per data released by Russia Foreign Affairs Ministry, in the LPR, 98.42 per cent of residents and in the DPR 99.23 per cent people voted to join Russia. In the Kherson region, the percentage was 87.05 while in Zaporizhzhya it was 93.11 percent. The Ministry claimed to have conducted the referendums according to the international laws while international observers have recognized the legitimacy of the vote. 

Also on 27 September, Russia’s defence Minister, Sergey Shoigu personally inspected the training of the people called in due to the mobilization order. He supervised firing, tactical and medical training. He also advised the command to ensure hot meals and proper living conditions for the recruited.

On the same day, The Moscow Times reported on Russia’s government portals clarifying that passports will not be given out to citizens mobilized by the armed forces. The move comes as countless Russians try to flee the country to escape conscription amidst rising fear of travel restrictions. Currently, Russians can travel to Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan without passports. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 28 September, the European Commission proposed the eighth package of sanctions against Russia. The proposal comes as a response to the escalation of Ukraine crisis, partly caused by Russia’s annexation attempts in the occupied regions. As per the proposal, the Commission will publish the ‘legal Basis’ for an oil price cap. This move will reduce Russian revenues and bring stability to the global oil market. As part of the package, additional Russian products such as aviation items, or electronic components and specific chemical substances will be banned which could cause EUR seven billion loss in revenue for Russian economy. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the referendums an “...illegal attempt to grab land and change international borders by force,” and said that the EU was determined that Russia would feel the consequences of its actions.

On the same day, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic said that Serbia will not recognize the results of the referendums conducted by Russia. Citing the UN charter he said: "We are protecting our own territorial integrity, and it is in our best interest to protect the territorial integrity of other internationally recognised countries.”

On the explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Lithuania’s Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas said that his country is willing to provide any support required by the investigations launched by Sweden or Denmark. He also said: “…it's clear who is benefiting from this, first of all, Gazprom itself.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 28 September, Hindustan Times reported on India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar’s visit to the US. He reiterated the neutral stance of India and condemned the war, but also assured to maintain good trade ties with Russia. He said: “Beyond that what happens is in the realm of diplomacy and I can’t say anything more.” 

On 27 September, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that China believed in the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and all purposes of the UN Charter should be respected. According to China’s Foreign Ministry, the referendums will increase pressure on the West on how to provide necessary assistance to Ukraine. 

References
Russia's recognition of sham referenda and another attempt to annex the territory of Ukraine will mean that there is nothing to talk about with this President of the Russian Federation - President at the meeting of the UN Security Council,” president.gov.ua, 28 September 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,” president.gov.ua, 28 September 2022
Ukraine’s president: No talks with Putin if its land annexed,” AP News, 28 September 2022
Kyiv Says Answer to Russian Annexation Vote is More Weapons,” Kyiv Post, 28 September 2022
Only 0.5% of Zaporizhzhya Oblast residents took part in the occupiers' pseudo-referendum,” Telegram, 28 September 2022
Russians have issued at least 1,500 draft notices to Crimean Tatars,” Ukrinform, 28 September 2022
Russia Will Not Give Out Passports to Mobilized People – Government,” The Moscow Times, 28 September 2022
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs assessed the past referenda on joining Russia,” LENTA.RU, 28 September 2022
Shoigu inspects training of called-up people at Western Military District’s ranges,” TASS, 27 September 2022
Alexandra Brzozowski, “EU proposes new Russia sanctions to target Russia trade, include oil price cap,” Euractiv, 28 September 2022
Lorne Cook, “EU seeks trade sanctions on Russia over ‘sham’ Ukraine votes,” AP News, 28 September 2022
"Press statement by President von der Leyen on a new package of restrictive measures against Russia," ec.europa.eu, 28 September 2022
Serbia won't recognise results of Russia's referendums in Ukraine - Vucic ,” Reuters, 28 September 2022
Statement by the Prime Minister on the results of Russia’s sham referendums in occupied regions of Ukraine,” pm.gc.ca, 27 September 2022
Nord Stream explosions benefit Gazprom – Lithuanian defmin,” The Baltic Times, 28 September 2022
India ready to help in Ukraine; urges diaspora to contest biased narratives,” Hindustan Times, 28 September 2022
Referenda in 4 Ukrainian regions bring 'pressure' to West on how to deal with Russia next,” The Global Times, 27 September 2022


28 September 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #318

War in Ukraine: Day 216

NATO approves South Korea's mission; Russia suspected in Nord Stream pipelines leak; 2023 budget revealed in Ireland

Photo : Mikhail Metzel / TASS


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

GERMANY
New measures introduced towards helping electricity production from renewable energy resources
On 27 September, the European Commission approved three new measures to aid electricity production from renewable energy sources in Germany. The three measures are, first, change to sliding market premium in the payment structure for innovation tenders. Second, financial incentives for consumers to invest in small rooftop solar photovoltaic installations. Three, additional round of ground-based and rooftop solar photovoltaic tenders in 2022. These measures add-on to the German Renewable Energy Act and help towards realising Germany’s environmental targets and the EU’s objectives with respect to the European Green Deal. Assessed under the EU State aid rules, the commission observed that the aid is necessary and fitting to promote the use of renewable energy sources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The aid is observed to be balanced and that the positive effects of the measures offset its negative effects. (“Commission approves additional German measures to support electricity production from renewable energy sources , ec.europa.eu, 27 September 2022)

IRELAND
Finance Minister reveals Irish budget for 2023
On 27 September, Ireland’s Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe presented the Budget for 2023 where he outlined tax giveaways. The surplus was a result of increased tax collection from corporations, especially from American tech companies. 2023 budget is aimed towards helping families and businesses as they face the cost-of-living crisis from the Ukraine war and COVID-19. With the passing of the budget, the citizens will be subject to pay 40 per cent more if the income exceeds EUR 40,000. In exchange, electricity credits, increase in social welfare, reduction of childcare fee, and a business support scheme to protect from the increase of energy prices. He said: “As one of the most open economies in the world, we benefit when things are going well internationally, but when they reverse, we are also one of the most exposed.” (Shane Harrison, “Irish budget: Finance minister unveils tax 'giveaways'”, BBC, 27 September 2022)
  
TURKEY
Turkish police attacked by Kurdish militants
On 26 September police in the Mezitli district of Mersin were attacked by two alleged Kurdish militants who later killed themselves by discharging suicide bombs. A police officer and a civilian were wounded while a second police officer was killed. The two women militants were identified as associated with the outlawed Kurdistan Worker’s Party. Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu while talking to the reporters said that the civilian hit by a stray bullet and the wounded police officer were not seriously hurt. The militant group is yet to respond. (“Kurdish militants attack Turkish police, kill themselvesapnews, 27 September)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
NATO researchers succeed in making QKD and PQC communications secure
On 27 September NATO released updates on ongoing projects on quantum technology to improve communication and security. NATO researchers under its “Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme” achieved success in an exercise conducted to test two methods, quantum key distribution (QKD) and post-quantum cryptography (PQC). QKD is a quantum communication method where decryption keys will be sent through quantum means while the encrypted message is sent via traditional means. PQC is a way to transmit information securely using cryptography and mathematical functions. These two methods are introduced to prevent hacking by quantum computers and other emerging disruptive technologies. The tests were successful in creating a secure communication bubble between participants and also proved to be secure even for long distant communication. Further, the SPS will look at integrating both to protect information infrastructure in the best way possible for NATO. (“Using quantum technologies to make communications secure,” nato.int, 27 September 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Droughts in the EU could be the norm by 2050 says European Drought Observatory
On 27 September the Members of the European Parliament were warned that the droughts plaguing Europe can become a norm by 2050 if measures are not taken to mitigate them. Andrea Toreti, a member of the European Drought Observatory briefed the European Parliament’s Committee on Environment, Public health and Food Safety (ENVI) on the same. He said that the climate crisis that hit Europe last summer was going to occur every year if mitigation measures are not introduced. Currently, 64 per cent of Europe is experiencing drought conditions in varying degrees, where agriculture, transport and energy sectors are facing problems due to this drought. Harvest has rapidly decreased and key waterways are reported low levels. Toreti proposed a European approach to deal with this which will not only focus on Europe but look at mitigating at the global level with greater cooperation. Parallel extreme events have contributed greatly to the worsening situation in Europe and that immediate measures are required to deal with the fallout to prevent the worsening of the situation in the future. (Alice Tidey “Severe droughts 'could be the norm' in the EU by 2050, experts say“, euronews, 27 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Leaks in the Nord Stream pipeline found to last for a week
On 27 September, new leaks were identified in the Nord Stream pipeline 1 and 2. According to the Danish and Swedish authorities, underwater attacks in the Baltic Sea had resulted in damaging the pipelines leading to leakage of gas. They have predicted the leak to continue for “at least a week.” Maritime agencies of Sweden and Denmark have issued fresh instructions for ships in this area and have also included warnings to aircraft flying over the Danish and Swedish economic zones in the Baltic Sea. Speculations have risen that Russia caused this leak by initiating underground explosions as a form of aggression towards the EU and intended as sabotage for the upcoming winter. While it is too early to say what caused these leaks, these speculations are not being dismissed by European leaders as they are of the view that multiple leaks could not be a coincidence. (“Nord Stream: Explosions recorded prior to discovery of major gas leaks,” euronews, 27 September 2022)
 
Renewed checks at Czech border amidst a new migrant wave
On 27 September, the Czech government announced new round of checks at the border shared with Slovakia which will be effective from 29 September. The checks will be conducted at 27 border crossings between the two countries for at least 10 days by 560 police and customs officers. These checks are to prevent people from crossing the border at any point except for for farmers, foresters and fishermen working at the border areas. The Czech Interior Ministry said that it was necessary after 12,000 illegal migrants and 125 human smugglers in Czech territories were caught. The ministry identified most of them to be illegal migrants were from Syria and that the Czech Republic is viewed as a gateway to the West. Slovakia’s government accepted this decision but has asked for a larger discussion at the EU level. (“Czechs to renew border checks amid new migrant wave”, apnews, 27 September 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
EU to provide EUR 1.5 million as humanitarian aid to Sri Lanka
On 27 September, the European Commission approved EUR 1.5 million as humanitarian aid to address the socio-economic crisis in Sri Lanka. This aid will fulfill in terms of cash interventions, address basic needs of the people such as health, food, protection and education. EU’s Commissioner for Crisis management highlighted the hardships, shortage in resource and food insecurity faced by Sri Lankans. (“Sri Lanka: EU releases €1.5 million to respond to growing humanitarian needs” ec.europa.eu, 27 September 2022)
 
Republic of Korea’s mission to NATO approved
On 26 September, the North Atlantic Council approved the Republic of Korea’s mission in Belgium to NATO upon its request Korea. Korea has been an active partner of NATO and has forged a strong alliance on shared values since 2005 and part of the new strategic concepts NATO has welcomed new strategic partners mainly to expand its activities in the Indo-Pacific. Apart from this, the other areas of collaboration are non-proliferation, civil preparedness, disaster relief, counter-terrorism, cyber defence and security-related civil science projects. (“Alliance agrees the Republic of Korea’s Mission to NATO”, nato.int, 27 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 216
By Sai Pranav 

War on the Ground
On 27 September, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Mykola Solskyis announced the export of 50000 tonnes of wheat grain to Ethiopia and Somalia. The grains will be transported through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports with the help of the World Food Programme. Solskyis reported on Ukraine’s mass grain and oil crops with more than 20 million tonnes of stock, of which 70 per cent is expected to be exported.

The press service of Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported that two robots are being used to demine, areas in the Vinnytsia region.  The robots cost around UAH four-and-a-half million are helping the bomb disposal experts.

Ukraine received 700000 doses of polio vaccine from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) to contain the Polio outbreak in Ukraine, which is worsening due to the Russian invasion. UNICEF provided both oral and inactivated polio vaccines to Ukraine, urging its citizens to take the polio vaccines. The US agency for International Development (USAID) and Japan’s government funded the cost of the vaccines which will be for children and adults to strengthen their immune systems against poliovirus.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 27 September, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine for rejecting Russia’s offer to negotiate. Russia’s Defence Ministry announced that it would not force the return of Russians who have already fled to Kazakhstan, Georgia and other countries. He said that the Military, Enlistment Office, and Ministry of Internal Affairs will work together to hand out summons near the border of Georgia and target those who are currently attempting to escape conscription. 

On 27 September, the State Duma adopted an amendment to the Labour Code to preserve jobs for mobilized people. As per the amendment, the people with valid employment contracts who are undergoing conscription will retain their positions and be able to resume work once their service is complete. The law also includes additional guarantees for the family members of those who receive a conscription call. Who would be given a job to sustain themselves and will not be terminated even if the employer institutes a mass lay-off.

On the same day, TASS reported that the process of annexation of the occupied territories into Russia will be decided the results of the recent referendums are calculated and revealed. In this context, Luhansk People’s Republic’s ambassador to Moscow, Rodion Miroshnik  said that voter turnout in Luhansk exceeded 50 per cent and accused Ukraine for launching attacks in places where referendums took place.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 27 September, the UK’s Ministry of Defence in its daily intelligence update reported on the upcoming Putin’s address on 30 September, where there is a possibility to announce on the accession of the Ukrainian-occupied regions after the referendums end.

On the same day, a new pipeline connecting he Norwegian gas shelf and Poland through Denmark was inaugurated. The new Baltic pipeline will provide Poland with 15 per cent of its annual energy needs. Russia had halted gas supply to Poland through the Yamal pipeline after Poland refused to pay in roubles. The news pipeline will thus be an alternative to Russian energy. Poland can now supply gas to the Baltics through the Gas Interconnector Poland Lithuania pipeline. It had managed to receive energy from Lithuania through the interconnector. Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland said, “It was an important step on the important road to Europe's independence from Russian energy,”.

The EU said it would impose new sanctions against Russia for conducting illegal referendums in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. The EU’s Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, High Representative Josep Borrell said that there would consequence for people who that participate in the unlawful referendums. The next set of sanctions will contain new bans on Russian exports and imports, companies, and individuals responsible for the false referendums in the four Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

On 27 September, France’s Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna paid a surprise visit to Ukraine as a show of solidarity. She is scheduled to visit Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Prosecutor Andriy Kostin and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. The visit displays France’s support and solidarity for Ukraine and its people.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 27 September, referring to the Russian citizens attempting to flee the country, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said, “Most of them are forced to leave because of the hopeless situation. We must take care of them and ensure their safety.” According to Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry, close to 98000 Russians have entered till now after the military call by Putin.

On 26 September, Japan’s Consulate General in Vladivostok, Tatsunori Motoki, was arrested by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) for obtaining classified information for money. He was ordered to leave the country 48 hours after his detention. On 27 September, the Japanese government protested by alleging that Russia’s action was a clear violation of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. The Japanese government demanded an official apology from Russia for the actions against Motoki. This comes following a new set of sanctions imposed by Japan on Russia.
 
On 26 September, China and Russia’s warships were spotted by a US Coast Guard ship on a daily patrol in the Bering Sea. The US Coast Guard first found a Chinese guided-missile cruiser 75 nautical miles north of Kiska Island of Alaska. Both countries were said to be participating in a training exercise within the US zone as an extension of the completed Vostok exercises. The US speculates that the Navy display was a show of solidarity between Russia and China.

References
Enough wheat in Ukraine to cover own demand, help others - Agrarian Minister,” Ukrinform, 27 September 2022
Robots to help Ukrainian bomb disposal experts demine liberated areas,” Ukrinform, 27 September 2022
DECREE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE No. 671/2022,” president.gov.ua, 27 September 2022
DECREE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE No. 670/2022,” president.gov.ua, 27 September 2022
DECREE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE No. 669/2022,” president.gov.ua, 27 September 2022
Ministry of Health of Ukraine, “UNICEF provided Ukraine with about 700,000 doses of polio vaccine,” kmu.gov.ua, 27 September 2022
The Kremlin explained the new terms of negotiations with Kyiv,” LENTA.RU, 27 September 2022
Putin told Erdogan he remained ready for talks with Ukraine — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 27 September 2022
The Ministry of Defense decided not to return the departed Russians forcibly,” LENTA.RU, 27 September 2022
The State Duma adopted a law on the preservation of jobs for mobilized citizens,” interfax.ru, 27 September 2022
Press review: New regions on track to join Russia and EU eyes ban on Russian slabs,” TASS, 27 September 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 27 September 2022,” Twitter, 27 September 2022
The EU said it will slap sanctions on organisers of “illegal” votes in four occupied regions of Ukraine,” The Guardian, 27 September 2022
A new pipeline that will carry Norwegian gas via Denmark was inaugurated in Poland,” The Guardian, 27 September 2022
Alasdair Sandford, “Baltic Pipe: Norway-Poland gas pipeline opens in key move to cut dependency on Russia,” euronews, 27 September 2022
Holiday in Montenegro becomes escape from call-up for Russians,” Reuters, 27 September 2022
French foreign minister makes surprise visit to Kyiv,” Le Monde, 27 September 2022
Kazakhstan to ensure safety of Russians fleeing military call-up,” alarabiya, 27 September 2022
Japan consul to be expelled from Russia for alleged espionage,” The Mainichi, 27 September 2022
Minnie Chan, “Chinese, Russian warships in ‘show of solidarity’ near Alaska,” scmp, 27 September 2022

 


27 September 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #317

UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe? | War in Ukraine: Day 215

Leak in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; The EU promises fund to tackle socio-economic challenges; Voting begins early for Latvian parliamentary elections

Photo : United Nations photo


EM Special Alert
UNGA 77: Who said from what from Europe?
By Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee

On 13 September, the UNGA 77 which takes place every September opened the discussion, for 2022 the session was held under the theme of “A watershed moment: transformative solutions to interlocking challenges.” The agenda for UNGA 77 focused on “Ukraine war, energy crisis, climate action, COVID-19, humanitarian challenges, Transforming Education Summit, and threats to global economy.” On 14 September, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his briefing urged the G20 countries should take the lead in addressing the climate issues, plauded the success of the Ukraine-Russian grain deal in reducing the global food prices and stressed on the importance of removal of barriers to export of Russian fertilizers. The EU’s agenda in the UNGA 77 is to discuss on keeping the UN charter, rule of law, global challenges from the Ukraine war, support to quality education, battle against climate change, global health security and helping in global digital agenda.

Ukraine War
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took primacy in this year’s general debate, with almost all states referring to it, and condemning Russia’s offensive in the country. On 24 September representing the EU in its observer capacity, President of the European Council, Charles Michel said: “It is a hybrid war. It combines the violence of weapons with the poison of lies.” He pointed out several lies propagated by Russia. For example, how the west threatened Russia’s security, how Russia was preventing a genocide in Ukraine, how the invasion was not a war but a “special military operation” and that Western sanctions were causing food and fertilizer shortages. 

On 21 September, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the meeting via a pre-recorded video. He reiterated that Ukraine did not instigate the war and has conducted 88 meetings in various formats and levels to prevent escalation. He presented a peace formula with five elements- punishing the aggressor and increasing the sanctions; protecting lives; restoring security and territorial integrity; ensuring security guarantees; and maintaining the determination to keep increasing pressure on Russia. 

On 24 September, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov however denied any wrongdoings in Ukraine and said that it was a necessary step to protect Russian people. He accused the West of trying to change the narrative regarding the war against Russia to wage a proxy war against it. He criticized the West’s backsliding on the promise of not expanding the NATO eastwards. The only country from Europe to support Russia was Belarus. Belarus’s Foreign Minister, Vladimir Makei, said that the crisis is Ukraine was being exacerbated by the West’s aspiration for a unipolar world, which he termed as neo-colonial. 

On 21 September, UK’s Prime Minister, Liz Truss reaffirmed her state’s support of Ukraine and promised that they “will not rest until Ukraine prevails.” She appreciated the speedy and efficient international response to Ukraine in supplying weapons, providing financial aid and installing sanctions and other diplomatic actions. On 20 September, France’s President Emmanuel Macron criticized the countries who have taken a non-aligned stance and said that they were complicit in new imperialism. He called on the member-states to adhere to the charter, extended his support to the IAEA, and emphasised that peace in Ukraine could be brought by agreements that respect international law. On 20 September, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz highlighted that a permanent member of the UN Security Council violating international law as Russia was doing in Ukraine was unjustifiable, and a disaster for Europe and the global world order. On 24 September, Belgium’s Prime Minister, drew attention to how the Crisis in Ukraine was not just affecting Europe, but also exacerbating the food crisis in Africa, Asia and Latin America and global energy crisis. 

On 24 September, Sweden’s Foreign Minister, Ann Christin Linde defended Sweden’s NATO membership by saying that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has “fundamentally changed Sweden’s security environment.” On 20 September, Finland’s President, Sauli Niinisto highlighted a similar viewpoints and said: “We can’t accept, condone or normalize grave violations of international law and human rights.” Referring to attacks on or near nuclear power plants in Ukraine, the two Scandinavian states said that nuclear security and an arms control architecture should be brought back to the top of the international agenda again. Sweden mentioned the Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament presenting the Secretary-General with ideas to promote disarmament and non-proliferation.  

The Baltic States, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia also highlighted how Russia’s aggression in Ukraine was threatening world peace. Latvian President, Eglis Levits said: “In the twenty-first century, Russia maintains a nineteenth century ideology of imperialism, colonialism and racism.” He highlighted the migration crisis catalyzed by the war and called on the member states to reinforce the sanctions regime to further destabilise Russia’s economy. Estonia’s President Alan Karis recounted the dire on-ground situation in Ukraine. He criticized the Security Council for not doing much since its 02 March resolution condemning Russia’s aggression and said: “Helping Ukraine to protect its right to exist is our collective obligation.” 

From central Europe, Hungary’s president Katalin Novak condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine saying that not only citizens from Ukraine and Russia, but people belonging to other countries like Hungary were getting stuck in the cross-fire. Like many leaders, Czech Republics Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky urged the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor to open investigation into the war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. Historically neutral, Switzerland reaffirmed their stance about the Ukraine war, criticised Russia and called for better mechanisms to hold aggressors accountable to the international community. 

From the Balkan region, Bulgaria supported a comprehensive reform of the Security Council and said: “We have come to a critical juncture where further keeping the status quo is untenable.” Condemning the recent sham referenda, Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama said: “It is an open battle between an aging cynical tyranny and a young growing democracy.” Greece’s Prime Minister, Kryiakos Mitsotakis noted how Russia has weaponized natural resources to “destabilize democratically elected European Governments.” Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan highlighted Turkey’s role in the mediation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and was appreciated by several members for its contribution.

Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law
On 20 September, President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö assured Finland’s sturdy support to the ICC in examining the human rights violations in Ukraine and questioned “Have we done all we can to avert violence?” He urged the UN member states to unite in promoting peace and preventing conflict. German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz highlighted how Germany has been providing humanitarian assistance being “second-biggest donor” and taking in refugees in past years. He urged for humanitarian action for those people who are ill-treated in prison camps in North Korea, Syria, Iran, Belarus. Apart from this, the plight situation of women and girls in Afghanistan was also indicated, with Scholz stressing on China to adhere to the recommendations given by the High Commission of Human Rights in Xinjiang duly. On the same, on 23 September, European Council President, Charles Michel highlighted the humanitarian crimes in Xinjiang province.

On 22 September, President of Spain, Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón focused on the gender equality and empowerment, where globally women are threatened to gain their sexual and reproductive freedom. He said how the such threats have increased in the advanced democracies and women have become the fatalities of backsliding. Pedro stated how Spain’s legislation aid in public-health service, especially women’s health. He announced to contribute EUR 100 million for three years to the organization working on gender equality. Prime Minister of Ireland, Micheál Martin highlighting the worsening humanitarian conditions, stated the increase in the aid of EUR 78 million for Horn of Africa, Yemen, Afghanistan and the Sahel, along with this, he announced an additional fund of EUR 50 million to address the child malnutrition. He repeated Ireland’s support in civilian protection and recalled “Political Declaration on the use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas,” as an important milestone.

Nuclear Threat
On 20 September, on the increasing challenges over international arms control, President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö expressed concern over the US and Russia’s state of nuclear weapons and how it demanded for both to take responsibility for arms control and disarmament. He urged for the continuity of the New START treaty and dialogue to target down the nuclear arsenals.
On 21 September, President of Estonia, Alar Karis indicated his fear on the situation in  Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and urged for immediate demilitarization, giving back the control to Ukraine and providing of access to IAEA authorities. He accused Russia for blocking the agreement towards “outcome document in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Review Conference. Similarly, the Czech Republic Minister of Foreign Affairs accused Russia for the attacks on the plant and also asked Iran to meet the legal standards set under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement.

On 23 September, Sweden’s Minister of Foreign Affairs spoke on the nuclear security where she urged to prioritize the ideas provided by the countries under Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament to put non-proliferation in international agenda.

Food Crisis
On the food insecurity, all the European countries expressed their concerns for countries which are going through food crisis, particularly, on 20 September, President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, key highlight was accomplishing the Black Sea Grain deal and how the exports from Ukraine have helped meet the food crisis. President of Romania objected the “weaponizing of food access” and stated how Romania has helped more than four million tonnes of Ukraine grain to be exported and appreciated the Black Sea Grain deal. On the same day, President of Poland, Andrzej Duda spoke on war induced famine situation, where he highlighted the decreased capacity of Ukrainian harvests by 35 per cent and how it has become a “economic weapon.” He also said the impact the shortage is causing in Africa and Middle-east, pushing more than 47 million people into “chronic hunger.”

On 24 September, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey V. Lavrov stated the persisting blockade over Russian grain and fertilisers despite the signing of the grain deal. He proposed for the movement of the stocked grains which weigh to 300,000 tonnes to countries in Africa without charge.

Peace Agenda
On 20 September, President of Switzerland Ignazio Cassis, assured Switzerland’s commitment to peace and security. He proposed to prove in the 2023-24 Security council that “neutrality does not mean indifference,” and will stand for the promotion of peace, engaging women in peace process, civilian protection and prioritise peace agenda. On the same, President of Romania referring to frozen conflicts said that if a war is absent does not imply the presence of peace and “protracted conflicts” in Black Sea has to be responded with rapidness. He appreciated UN’s peacekeeping which acts as tool for peace and security and assured Romania’s role in it.

On 22 September, Prime Minister of Norway assured to promote involvement of women under their “Women, peace, and security agenda.” He said: We talk to all parties as we work to achieve peaceful conflict resolution.  Without dialogue, we have no opportunity to influence the parties and encourage them to move in a more positive direction.” Prime Minister of Portugal, António Costa spoke on the UN’s New Agenda for Peace, where he focused on the global security, conflict prevention, and need for funding towards peacebuilding. He identified African nations, the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea, particularly Mozambique and urged to address the growing radicalization. He reiterated Portugal’s support in four peacekeeping operations of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) and thanked for the international recognition on the same.

Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Macron brought up the various climatic disasters plaguing the world now, like the floods in Pakistan, the droughts in the Horn of Africa. Finland’s President Sauli Niiinisto called on the international community to change its course and action plan to deal with climate change before it was too late. He pointed out that fighting climate change could also lead to creation of job and further innovation and economic growth. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz also took a similar stance calling climate change as the “biggest challenge of our generation.” Norway’s Prime Minister, spoke about the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, and committed that Norway will aim to triple its funding for climate adaptation and resilience. Netherlands brought up the issue of water crises across the world and stated that it along with Tajikistan will host the 2023 United Nations Water Conference, to discuss in mitigation of the same. The upcoming Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) in Egypt was highlighted and member states reiterated that positive action must be taken.

Disputes, Integration and Partnership in Europe
Many leaders referred to the several countries vying for EU membership and reiterated how important regional integration was, especially given the current geopolitical situation in the continent. For example, Croatia’s Prime Minister, Andrej Plenkovic supported Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU bid on the condition that the Bosnian Croats in the country are granted equality. North Macedonia appreciated the beginning of their accession process to the EU and said that the membership was of essential importance to the country and to the EU itself. North Macedonia, along with Albania and Serbia spoke about the Open Balkan initiative, that aims to make movement of people trade and good and services easier across borders. Albania’s president referred to the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo and said that both the countries, the UN and the EU should work towards a comprehensive peace agreement. Regarding the same issue, Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic mentioned that he is open to a compromise, but it has to ensure long-lasting peace for the Serbs and Albanians in the region. Bulgaria’s interim Foreign Minister brought forward ‌stability and prosperity of the Western Balkans and reaffirmed his faith on the transformative power of the EU to enhance regional cooperation. Greece mentioned Turkey’s efforts to destabilize peace in the astern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus and urged it cooperate regarding the mutual territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea. But Turkey defended this criticism by pointing out its efforts to mediate in conflicts, like the Black Sea Grain deal, the disputes in Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Armenia and Azerbaijan. On regional partnership, UK’s Liz Truss said that the UK is fortifying their security alliances in Europe and NATO, and building new partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific and gulf regions. 

References
‘Don’t flood the world today; don’t drown it tomorrow’, UN chief implores leaders,” un.org, 14 September 2022
General Debate of the 77th Session: 20 September - 26 September 2022,” gadebate.un.org


IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

LATVIA
Early voting begins for the Saeima elections
On 26 September, early voting for the Saeima elections began, The elections are to be held on 01 October. The early voters will be given an option to change their vote on Saturday if they wish to reconsider. Available in 66 polling stations across the country, early voting will be held on three days, before the voting. Saeima elections or parliamentary elections are held every four and the 2022 elections is the 14th Saeima elections. Latvia’s parliament has 100 seats and representatives are elected through a secret ballot system. (“Early voting for Saeima election begins in Latvia,” eng.lsm.lv, 26 September 2022)
 
RUSSIA
School shooting in Izhevsk claims at least 15 lives
On 26 September, Izhevsk in Russia, witnessed a school shooting. At least 15 people were killed and 24 were wounded. This adds to the rising cases of school shootings in Russia over recent years. Authorities have reported that of the 15 dead, 11 victims were children and 4 were adults. According to Deutsche Welle, the shooter has committed suicide and his body has now been found by the police. He was reportedly a student at the school and was armed with two pistols and significant ammunition. Investigations are underway to determine the motive and if he harbored neofascist views and the Nazi ideology. (“Russia: Children killed in shooting at school in Izhevsk,”  Deutsche Welle, 26 September 2022)
 
THE UK
Pound hits record low against the dollar
On 26 September, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, announced sweeping tax cuts as the pound sterling hit a record low close to USD1.08. The fall which comes at a time when there is growing concern about the increasing strength of the dollar will not only increase the cost of imports like oil which are pegged to the dollars oil but also have a raise inflation rates. The market has reacted by speculating an emergency increase in borrowing interest rate up to 5.5 per cent with reports of increasing costs of the UK government. UK’s Prime Minister Liz Truss, the chancellor, and the Bank of England have refused to comment on the same. (“Pound hits record low after tax cut plans,” BBC, 26 September 2022)
 
Kwarteng to keep cutting taxes to boost economic growth
On 26 September, Kwasi Kwarteng announced the intention to cut more taxes to boost UK’s economic growth. Kwarteng also proposed tax cuts across the board and emphasised the intention to review the tax system to make it simpler. The biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years was presented to the parliament, and marked as a “new era” of the UK economy. Kwarteng believes that a major change of direction was needed to revive economic growth. According to the plan, income tax and stamp duty on house purchases will be cut and planned rises in business tax will be scrapped. The cuts are introduced as measure against the recession in UK’s economy. (Tom Espiner, “Kwasi Kwarteng: I want to keep cutting taxes,” BBC, 26 September 2022)
 
REGIONAL
The EU president pledges funding for food security, fighting diseases, biodiversity and women and youth rights
On 26 September, after a week of discussions with world leaders and international partners, President Ursula von der Leyen pledged additional funds to fight against the socio-economic challenges that have aggravated because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising climate and natural crisis. To step up the fight against diseases. EU has pledged EUR15 million to the Global Fund for fighting AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, EUR600 million for the global food security crisis, EUR45 million over 6 years to support sexual and reproductive health and rights worldwide. (“Global Gateway: President von der Leyen announces funding for women and youth's rights, food security, fight against disease, and biodiversity,” ec.europa.eu, 24 September 2022)
 
Poland becomes a target of Belarusian propaganda
On 26 September, Deutsche Welle reported that the authoritarian regime under President Alexander Lukashenko was Poland in its latest propaganda by bringing up historical resentments. He believes that Warsaw-based media outlet, Nexta, founded by the Belarusian activist Stsiapan Putsila is behind the protests that erupted in August 2020 against his elections. Polish journalist Michal Potocki alleges that Lukashenko views the Polish ruling class Polish ruling class as exploitative and demands for reparations from when parts of Belarus were under Polish rule during the Soviet era. The Belarusian government has also taken steps to suppress any Polish organization in Belarus and has also shut down Polish schools. Moreover, any Belarusian citizen holding an identity card issued by the Poland  has been ordered to report to the Belarusian authorities. (Tatiana Gargalyk, “Belarusian propaganda targets Poland,” Deutsche Welle, 25 September 2022)
 
Nord Stream 2 pipeline leaks into the sea off the Danish coast
On 26 September, the Danish maritime traffic agency suspects a gas leak overnight from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A large bubble field was spotted near Bornholm and the pressure in the pipeline dropped from 105 bars to seven bars. Ships have been asked to steer clear of a five-nautical mile radius off of Bornholm. Completed in late 2021, the pipeline was never in use but was filled with gas for technical operation. The reason behind the drop in pressure has not yet been provided and an.investigation is underway regarding the same. (“Nord Stream 2 pipeline leaks gas into sea off Danish coast,” Deutsche Welle, 26 September 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Soodla reservoir drying up due to climate change
On 26 September, ERR News, cited the findings by the Tallinn University Institute of Ecology regarding the drying up of the Soodla water reservoir. The drying up is the effect of climate change on rainfall. While Estonia is known for heavy rainfall, in 2022 precipitation dropped to 300 millimetres from the usual 500 millimetres. The timing of the rainfall has also affected the water retention of the reservoir. These led to a lessening of water flow from the Soodla river which feeds the reservoir.. A professor of eco-hydrology at the University, Jaanus Terasmaa said that the dryiong up is of great concern as water is becoming increasingly scare. She also mentioned that newer ways of conservation should be considered. (“Tallinn Soodla water reservoir drying up due to climate change,” new.err.ee, 26 September 2022

INTERNATIONAL
Estonia submits a declaration of intervention concerning claims of Russian genocide
On 24 September, Estonia submitted a declaration of intervention to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), regarding Russia’s non-compliance with the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. US, UK, Germany and Sweden are amongst other nations who have filed an intervention at the ICJ regarding the same. Justifying the reason behind the submission, Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said: “Russia's aggression on the pretext of preventing and punishing genocide has seriously undermined the meaning of such a horrible crime as genocide.” (“Estonia submits ICJ declaration over Russian genocide in Ukraine,” news.err.ee, 24 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 215
By Sai Pranav 

War on the Ground
Melitopol Mayor, Ivan Fedorov, during a nationwide telethon, said in a statement that the Russian forces forced only 20 per cent of the current population of 60000 in Melitopol to vote in the referendum conducted in the city. Out of the 20 per cent, only ten per cent voted unwillingly in favour of Russia under pressure from the Russian soldiers’ threat. The pseudo-referendums started on 23 September 2022.
 
According to a report posted on Facebook by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, Russia is planning to carry out a huge cyberattack on vital Ukrainian infrastructures and facilities, of energy companies in Ukraine. The attacks will be distributed denial-of-service attacks, and will also target Ukraine’s allies, Poland and the Baltics. As per the report, Russian military also plans to conduct a missile strike on Ukrainian electrical supply facilities to slow its offensive attacks.

On 26 September, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office reported that since the beginning of the war, Russia has committed 36281 war crimes, including violations of the laws and customs of warfare, planning or preparation or the initiation of aggressive war, war propaganda and other crimes. Ukraine’s law enforcement also registered 16315 crimes against national security for encroachment on Ukraine's territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine, treason, collaborative activities, assistance to Russia, sabotage and other crimes. The total number of charges relating to the war in Ukraine amounted to 52596 crimes. Additionally, The Prosecutor General’s Office also reported ona torture chamber used by Russian troops in the liberated village of Lyptsi. 
 
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, warned the citizens about the ‘criminal mobilization’ taking place within Russia and its occupied territories. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is using indigenous people, especially from Crimea, Siberia, Caucasus and Dagestan, for conscription into the army to fight against Ukraine. According to Zelenskyy, using indigenous people in the war against Ukraine will destroy their identities. He called the people to either flee or surrender to the Ukrainian forces to be freed from the Russian grip.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 26 September, Putin met Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in Sochi. They discussed various bilateral issues, such as the economy and security. West’s sanctions on Belarusian fertilizers, the blockade on food and fertilizers and the large number of people fleeing both countries were the other issues discussed. Lukashenko said that Belarus would find a way out of the sanctions imposed by the West and grow stronger.
 
On 26 September, TASS reported that the voter turnout for the referendum in the Zaporizhzhia region on joining Russia exceeded 50 per cent. The Chairman of the “We Are Together With Russia civil society group,” Vladimir Rogov, said that he had never seen the eagerness to vote by the local people over the years following the independence of Ukraine. He expects more of the local people to vote in the referendum which will continue till 27 September.
 
On 25 September, Russia’s Defence Ministry announced that it had destroyed two Ukrainian MiG-29 soviet era warplanes modified to handle US-made anti-radar weapons. The warplanes were capable of carrying AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles ((HARM), which are used to attack radar stations on the ground. The Ministry also reported that they destroyed 12 Ukrainian drones and 21 missiles, mainly US-made HIMARS launchers, stopped mid-air.

Russian hacking group RaHDIt published data of 1500 Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service employees in the public domain. The data containing a list on officers working in various embassies across 20 countries and international organizations like the EU, the UN and NATO was published on the Nemesis website. The data also included intelligence officers working in the UN, the EU and NATO offices.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

Land traffic at the border of Georgia increased following the partial mobilization decree by Putin. On 25 September, there had been a 48-hour delay to enter Georgia after Russians were  seen fleeing their country. Around 3000 vehicles were queued at the frontier to cross Georgia. Prices of commodities and apartments in Tbilisi are rising due to the Russian influx, and leading to resentment in Georgia. Other than Georgia, there has been a large influx of Russians fleeing to Georgia and neighbouring Kazakhstan, Finland and Mongolia.

On 26 September, the US provided National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) to Ukraine as military aid. Ukraine had requested for the US-made air defence systems for a long time and was approved for shipment in August.

On 26 September, the UK’s Defence intelligence reported in its update that the first batch of men who received military conscription under Russia’s partial mobilization had started to arrive at military bases. According to the report, the men that were called up lack military training and will be sent to the front line. Russia will also face administrative and logistical challenges in providing military training for the reservists.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 26 September, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry said that it would not recognize the referendums conducted in the four regions in Ukraine. The Ministry’s spokesperson, Aibek Smadiyarov, said, “As for the holding of referendums ... Kazakhstan proceeds from the principles of territorial integrity of states, their sovereign equivalence and peaceful coexistence.” Kazakhstan also denounced the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson with Russia through the illegal referendums conducted in these regions. Kazakhstan called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

On the same day, South Korea’s government called upon 30 companies that consume large amounts of energy to discuss methods of tackling the energy supply crisis brought forth by the war in Ukraine. The government aims to sign a deal with the 30 companies such as Samsung electronics, SK Hynix and Posco in October to demand them use energy more efficiently. The government is also planning to turn off lights earlier at tourist attractions and decrease the recommended room temperature at state-funded agencies.

Orthodox Hasidic Jewish pilgrims travel to the city of Uman in Ukraine amid the ongoing war to celebrate the Jewish New Year, Rosh Hashana. The orthodox Jews are followers of an 18th-century rabbi, Rabbi Nachman of Breslov, whose grave is in Uman. Even though Ukraine, Israel and the US warned the pilgrims not to travel to Ukraine amidst the war, the warnings were unheeded by the pilgrims as they are flying to Poland or Moldova to cross to Ukraine. Although the city is not on the frontline, Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid cautioned the pilgrims of “life-threatening danger”.

On 26 September, Japan imposed new sanctions on exporting chemical weapon-related goods to Russia, adding to the existing sanctions. Japan is concerned about the possibility of threats by nuclear weapons by Russia following the announcement made by Putin about the usage of atomic weapons.

References
Russians Managed To Force Just 20% Of Melitopol Residents To Vote At Pseudo-referendum,” Kyiv Post, 26 September 2022
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, “The occupiers are preparing massive cyberattacks on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine and its allies.” Facebook, 26 September 2022
Russian invaders commit more than 52,500 crimes in Ukraine - PGO,” Ukrinform, 26 September 2022
Criminal mobilization is used by Russia not only to continue the suffering of Ukrainians, but also to destroy representatives of indigenous peoples - address of the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 25 September 2022
Referendum in Zaporozhye Region successful, turnout surpassed 50% — activist,” TASS, 26 September 2022
Soviet planes modified for US missiles destroyed in Ukraine – Russia ,” RT, 25 September 2022
Russian hackers posted data of 1500 Ukrainian spies,” LENTA.RU, 26 September 2022
Meeting with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko,” en.kremlin.ru, 26 September 2022
Russians flee to Georgia after Putin's mobilisation order,” Reuters, 27 September 2022
Norway oil safety regulator warns of threats from unidentified drones,” Reuters, 26 September 2022
Ukraine receives U.S. air defense system,” Reuters, 25 September 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 26 September 2022,” Twitter, 26 September 2022
Kazakhstan says it won't recognise referendums in eastern Ukraine,” Reuters, 26 September 2022
Kim So-hyun, “Seoul braces for energy crisis this winter,” Korea Herald, 26 September 2022
Aaron Boxeerman, “Ukrainian City Attracts Thousands of Jewish Pilgrims Despite War,” wsj, 25 September 2022
Japan bans chemical weapons-related goods to Russia, concerned by nuke threats,” Reuters, 26 September 2022


26 September 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #316

War in Ukraine: Day 213 & 214

Right-wing coalition wins the Italian election; Coal phase-out fund granted to the Czech Republic; France's budget for 2023 revealed

Photo : Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
2023 Budget to be released
On 26 September, the French Finance Minister is expected to reveal the 2023 budget. The promise of the ruling administration is to bring the government budget down by three per cent by 2027. For which spendings have to be increased to provide subsidies for energy bills and keep customers away from inflation, to do that government aims to keep the energy price limited to 15 per cent. French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to increase the retirement age from to 62 to 65 which might trigger strikes and protests. The budget will be a decider for France’s economic performance. (“The world in brief,” The Economist,” 26 September 2022)

ITALY
Italy’s far-right wins the snap elections
On 26 September, the Far-right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni of the nationalist Brothers of Italy party won the Italy elections becoming the first female prime minister. The coalition includes the Brothers of Italy, League, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati, whereas the left alliance consists of the Democratic party, Green/Left Alliance, Piu Europa and Impegno Civico. In term of the seats won, the Right is expected to hold close more than 300 to 330 seats in total in both upper and lower house. Whereas the left will be able to hold only 120 – 140 seats. The snap election was held after the resignation of Mario Draghi’s National Unity Government’s collapse. (“Italian election 2022: live official results,” The Guardian, 26 September 2022; “Giorgia Meloni: Italy's far right on course to win election,” BBC, 26 September 2022

SWITZERLAND
Retirement age limit extended for women
On 25 September, in the voting held by the government the people voted in favour for the reform in government’s pension plan. With the majority of votes of 50.57 per cent, the retirement age will be pushed from 64 to 65 in line with men. Earlier voting attempts failed when held on in 2004 and 2017, upon criticisms from trade-unions, and left-leaning political parties argument on discrimination of women. From the recent voting, major share of votes came from German speaking residing in Switzerland. (“Swiss voters support increase in women's retirement age,” Deutsche Welle, 25 September 2022)
 
The Czech Republic
Receives fund to cutdown coal usage
On 26 September, European Commission announced “Just Transition Fund (JTF)” programme, under which the Czech Republic will get a grant of EUR 1.64 billion to phase out from using coal by 2033. The fund is also aimed to help in transition of the country to climate neutrality. The programme is also expected to maintain the 21,000 jobs which is dependent on carbon-intensive industries. According to Vice-President for the European Green Deal: “Czechia is a country with a rich industrial tradition and a promising future. Together with the Modernisation Fund, the Czech Just Transition Plan will help deliver a fair transition to climate neutrality, especially for the people in Karlovasky, Ustecky, and Moravskoslezky regions.” (“EU Cohesion Policy: €1.64 billion for a just climate transition in Czechia,” European Commission, 26 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 213 & 214
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav 

War on the Ground
On 25 September, Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council’s Centre for Countering Disinformation reported in a Telegram post that Russia was forcing the Ukrainian prisoners of war (PoWs) was forced to participate in the referendum held in the Olenivka penal colony. According to Russian media sources, Ukraine’s Armed Forces service men and women who are held as prisoners of war with Russian military were allegedly turned into militants who had requested passports of the proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). The Centre discovered another 57 Ukrainian PoWs were forced to vote in the fake referendum.

The referendums held in Russian-occupied territories had a turnout of 15 per cent in Kherson, 20 per cent in Zaporizhzhia, 22 per cent in Luhansk and 24 per cent in Donetsk. According to the Head of the Luhansk Regional Military, Serhiy Haidai, the Russian troops forced people from Luhansk to participate in the referendum. Russian soldiers were seen holding guns near Luhansk People’s Republic ballots. Russia's referenda were denounced by Ukraine and the West, calling them sham and pseudo-referendums. Three territories had more than 50 per cent agreeing to split with Ukraine, while Kherson had only 49 per cent.

Ukraine revoked the accreditation of Iran’s ambassador after discovering that Iran had supplied drones to Russia. Iran had declared a neutral position but crossed its words by providing arms to Russia, causing a rift between Ukraine and Iran. Following the attack on Odesa port by Russian who were using the Iranian made “Mohajer-6,” drones, there was a drastic reduction in the number of personnel in the Iranian embassy.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 24 September, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, "The entire territory of the Russian Federation, which is confirmed and can be further confirmed in the Russian Constitution, is certainly under the state’s full protection," at a press conference after partaking in the 77th plenary session of the UN General Assembly. Territories such as Donetsk, Luhansk. Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where the referendums are conducted, will be under Russia’s protection once the results are announced.

On the same day, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order postponing the military call-up during partial mobilization for full-time and part-time students who are studying at state educational organizations, research organizations pursuing nationally acknowledged vocational training and higher education programme and those enrolled in educational programs to a similar level for the first time.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 24 September, Institute for the Study of War, a US based think tank reported on Russia’s partial mobilisation. As per its report, the mobilisation efforts seem to be divided, complex and many violations of Russia’s Defense Minister comments were found. The reason behind the violation was observed to be due to confusion in the “chains of responsibility,” in executing the decree. According to Ukrainians, Russian forces were observed to be giving Russian passports to individuals in the Russian occupied territory and has mobilising them to participate in the referendum. The report states another possibility for Ukrainian POW to be treated in the same way.

On 25 September, the government of Finland, announced its decision to pass a resolution on imposing a ban on the entry of Russian using Finland issues visas or Schengen visas. The resolution is expected to passed this week according to Foreign Minister. As per the reports from the Finnish Border Guards, the Russians in the border crossing has increased from 3000 to 6000 in six days.

On 25 September, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signed a deal with UAE to export LNG, which forms part of the energy security agreement. Through the deal 137,000 cubic meters of LNG will be supplied to Germany through the new LNG terminal near Hamburg. Along with the deal, a memorandum was signed for “long-term deliveries” beginning from 2023. The move is seen as a rectification to dependency over gas from Russia.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 24 September, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that Iran is planning “a proportional action” against Ukraine after it decided to reduce its diplomatic ties due to Iran supplying drones to Russia. He said, “refrain from being influenced by third parties who seek to destroy relations between the two countries,”. He added that Ukraine’s decision was based on baseless rumours spread by foreign media, but he refrained from mentioning the drones.

References
Center for Anti-Misinformation, “UKRAINIAN PRISONERS OF WAR ARE FORCED TO VOTE IN THE "REFERENDUM",” Telegram, 25 September 2022
In the bushes and at gunpoint: Invaders holding pseudo-referendum in Luhansk region,” Ukrinform, 25 September 2022
Ukraine-Russia updates: 'Referendums' to annex Ukrainian territory begin,” Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2022
Ukraine to strip Iranian ambassador of accreditation over drones,” Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2022
All potential new Russian territories will be under state’s protection — Lavrov,” TASS, 25 September 2022
Executive Order On Deferment of Conscription for Military Service during Mobilisation,” kremlin.ru, 24 September 2022
Finland says traffic 'intensifying' on border with Russia,” euronews, 23 September 2022
Hungary Tries To Hush EU Talk Of More Russian Sanctions,” rferl.org, 20 September 2022
Iran will make 'proportional' response to Ukraine reducing ties,” Reuters, 24 September 2022
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 24,” ISW, 24 September 2022

 

 


24 September 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #315

War in Ukraine: Day 212

The EU plans to digitalize its electricity grid; Right-wing alliance campaign for the last time before the election; Germany promises Moldova EUR 60 million

Photo : Sputnik / Alexandr Kryazhev


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav


FRANCE
France to extend deadline to construct overdue renewable projects 
On 23 September, France changed its rules on biogas projects, regulated tariffs for inflations and extended deadlines for the construction of the projects to deal with arrears of farm investments. France’s President Emmanuel Macron promised to ensure the renewable projects start quickly to counter the energy crisis induced by the war in Ukraine. Even though France is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, the development of farm biogas using crops and animal manure has been slow due to local environmental concerns and administrative delays. France has 920 biogas projects in total under development, four per cent of the which is its annual demand. The extension of another 18 months and subsidized tariff benefits will be given to renewable developers as announced in the decree. (“France tries to ease farm biogas backlog in renewable energy push,” Reuters, 23 September 2022)
 
ITALY
Final campaign of the right-wing coalition ends
On 23 September, the conservative parties held a final campaign to solidify their victory before the elections in Italy. Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia joined hands in the campaign, increasing their supporters among Italian voters. They discussed anti-abortion and blocking migrants. The supporter of Meloni stated that her unwavering nature and coherence are the characteristics that the voters trust. However, the Five Star Movement Party saw its revival in Southern Italy in the later part of the election. The support for the Five Star Movement has increased by 15 to 16 per cent in Southern Italy. Northern Italy still supports Meloni and the right-wing coalition. (Angela Giuffrida and Lorenzo Tondo, “Italian rightwing coalition makes final push before election,” The Guardian, 23 September 2022)
 
 
REGIONAL
Germany pledges EUR 60 million to Moldova to tackle the energy crisis
On 23 September, Germany promised EUR 60 million in funds to Moldova to elevate the energy crisis in the country. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Moldova’s President Maia Sandu in Berlin to discuss supporting the economically affected Moldova. Moldova received praise from Germany’s Development Minister Svenja Schulze for tackling reforms needed for the country’s accession to the EU. The country is facing one of the worst economic crises in Europe, with inflation at 34.3 per cent and interest rate at 21.5 per cent. The West supporting President Sandu was blamed for the high inflation and soaring energy prices. Moldova is one of the victims of the effects of war in Ukraine, with the gas price surging twelvefold. (“Germany promises Moldova help with energy crisis,” Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2022)
 
LGBTQI+ community faces discrimination in Greece, says ECRI report
On 22 September, a report by the Council of Europe was released stating that Greece discriminated against the LGBTQI+ community. Europe’s top human rights watchdog urged Greece to practice equal rights for the LGBTI community, especially children in school. Intersex people have been facing severe discrimination and intolerance in Greece. Council of Europe advised Greece to promote and inculcate tolerance and respond, monitor, and respond to LGBTI-phobic incidents, especially in schools. Greece has faced open criticism about its homophobic nature and failure to introduce measures to tackle homophobia. In the most recent ECRI, Council of Europe’s Racism and Intolerance specialist body, report, there has been an increase in hate speech in Greece regarding migrants, refugees, Romani members and the LGBTQI+ community, and even politicians and state officials having discriminatory behaviour. (Helena Smith, “Greece urged to address anti-LGBTQI+ discrimination and intolerance,” The Guardian, 22 September 2022)

Modernization of the EU’s electricity grid requires EUR 584 billion 
On 23 September, the European Commission aims to publish a plan to digitalise Europe’s energy system and modernize the energy grid. The EU also plans to increase its renewable energy to be free from Russian gas dependency. The EU needs EUR 584 billion by 2030 for electricity grid investments. It supports electric vehicles, renewable energy, heat pumps and transitioning from fossil fuels. The Eu also aims to meet its climate goals by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55 per cent and having 45 per cent renewables by 2030. The draft of the plan stated that the EU needs 30 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030 and solar panels in every new home by 2029 to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels and achieve the EU’s climate targets. The digitalized energy grids will be flexible enough to adapt to renewable resources. (Kate Abnett, “EU's green shift depends on mammoth investment in energy grid, document says,” Reuters, 23 September 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Australia closer to acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine
On 23 September, marking one year of the AUKUS pact, the UK’s Prime Minister Liz Truss, the US President Joe Biden and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in a statement that Australia made notable strides in acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine. AUKUS was created to keep China in check in the South China Sea region and aims to provide nuclear-powered submarines and technologies to Australia. They also made improvements in the areas of hypersonic weapons, cyber, electronic warfare and additional undersea capabilities. (“U.S., UK, Australia leaders: progress made in Australia getting nuclear-powered sub,” Reuters, 24 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 212
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 23 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed the Presidential Decree No. 661/2022, to establish a proper investigation and prosecution tribunal. According to paragraph 28 of Article 6 of the Constitution, ordering the formation of a working group to facilitate the setting up of the tribunal for crimes of aggression against Ukraine. The working group will be headed by the head of President’s Office Andriy Yermak.

The exposure of the mass killings in the Izyum region was completed, where 447 bodies were recovered, of which 215 were women, 194 men and 5 were children. The Chief of Ukraine’s National Police, Ihor Kymenko said that many of the bodies had signs of torture, and forensic experts were found to be facing difficulty in identifying the victims. Moreover, 18 torture chambers were discovered in the Kharkiv region, where Russia illegally detained Ukrainians. A National Police spokesperson said that evidences of war crimes from these sites have been collected, and a register on  Russian soldiers and affected civilians was being maintained.

Following the record exchange of prisoners of war with Russia, Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson said that many of them show signs of violent torture. While some of them were brutally tortures, some suffered from chronic malnutrition due to adverse conditions of detention.

On 23 September, Ukraine reduced its diplomatic relations with Iran, as Iran-made weapons were being used by Russia to target Ukraine. The move comes after Russia intensified its attacks using Shahed 136 kamikaze drones in southern Ukraine the charge d'affaires ad interim of Iran has been summoned by the Foreign Ministry to provide answers about the issue. The ministry also noted that it would revoke the Iranian ambassador’s accreditation and reduce the presence of diplomats at the Iranian embassy in Kyiv. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

Upon Russia’s executive order on partial mobilization resulted in many military-aged men flee the country to avoid conscription. AP News reported a 10-kilometer queue of Russians trying to flee the country along the Russia’s border with Georgia, and lines of cars at the border with Kazakhstan. Countries which do not mandate a visa for Russians, like Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Serbia, were also top destinations according to the plane tickets sold at extremely high prices. 

On 23 September, the referenda in LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which has largely been termed as “sham” by the EU and Ukraine began. The voting is scheduled to continue till 27 September. Though the logistics of the referenda remain unclear, armed Russian soldiers carried ballots to apartment blocks, and mobile polling stations were set up. RT reported that people gathered in various parts of Russia to show support for the referenda. In Moscow, the All-Russia People’s Front (ONF) organized the ‘We Don’t Abandon Our Own’ event, which saw participation from actors, pop stars and other celebrities.

On 22 September, President Vladimir Putin spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. They discussed mutual cooperation in Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the role of the two states in ensuring the stability of the global oil market. Putin also appreciated Salman’s efforts at mediating the prisoner exchange with Ukraine.

On the same day, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov addressed the UN Security Council. He called the situation in Ukraine “impunity”. He criticised promotion by the West, labelling Russia as the aggressor and instigator. Lavrov also listed human rights violations committed by Ukraine before Russia’s invasion.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

France conducted a meeting on food security during the UNGA on “Save Crops Operation.” The African Union, the EU, World Food Program, Food and Agriculture Organization, the IMF, WTO and the World Bank and other international organizations launched the new initiative. Export restrictions, fertilizer needs, and production bottlenecks will be mapped and addressed. Additionally, an emergency fertilizer purchase mechanism and support system for production and access will be set up for Africa.

Russia’s partial mobilization order had triggered a response from the citizens in Russia as well as the international community. As many Russians crowd the borders of neighbouring countries to escape conscription, the recipient countries are also taking a stance against them. European Council President Charles Michel said that Europe should allow the Russian citizens entry and they should maintain “…openness to those who don’t want to be instrumentalized by the Kremlin.” 

On 22 September, in the US, 17 members of Congress wrote a letter to US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin urging him to hasten the review of Ukraine’s request for drones. The initial plan to sell four such MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones to Ukraine was stalled amidst security concerns in June. However, the risk assessments mitigation should not be at the cost of Ukrainian lives.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 22 September, at the Security Council, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres reiterated UN’s support for Ukraine. He pointed out that Russia is unlikely to decrease its offensive in Ukraine. The latest on ground developments were “dangerous and disturbing” as per Guterres. Nuclear conflict as threatened by Putin’s recent address would be “totally unacceptable”. Moreover, Guterres also expressed concern about the referenda being held in DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. He marked that these annexation efforts would be a violation of International Law and the UN Charter.

On 23 September, AP News, reported on the change in narrative in the international community, regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the West has been vocal about their position against Russia from the initial days of the war, many non-aligned countries are now coming forward to criticize Russia’s recent moves. In the UN General Assembly Summit, most of the international community spoke against Russia. 

On the same day, Uzbekistan suspended the use of Russia’s Mir system. The Mir system was set up by Russia in 2015 to bypass western sanctions after the annexation of Crimea. But now, with increasing Western pressure, many countries have opted out of the system. Uzbekistan cited “technical procedures” as the reason behind the suspension. 

References
Ukraine has shown that we have the truth, strength, initiative and confidence in victory - address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi,” president.gov.ua, 23 September 2022
Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 661/2022,” president.gov.ua, 23 September 2022
Exhumation in forest near Izium completed. 447 bodies found, ” Ukrinform, 23 September 2022
Eighteen torture chambers discovered in Kharkiv region, 1,000 war criminals identified,” Ukrinform, 23 September 2022
“‘Many’ Exchanged Ukrainians ‘Tortured’ In Captivity: Ukrainian Official,” Kyiv Post, 23 September 2022
Ukraine revokes accreditation of Iran’s Ambassador,” Ukrinform, 23 September 2022Khalil Hamra and Mehmet Guzel, “Russian men join exodus, fearing call-up to fight in Ukraine,” AP News, 23 September 2022
People gather in Russia to show support for Donbass, Zaporozhye, Kherson referendums,” RT, 23 September 2022
Shaun Walker, “‘Referendums’ on joining Russia under way in occupied Ukraine,” The Guardian, 23 September 2022
Telephone conversation with Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud,” kremlin.ru, 22 September 2022
Lavrov puts spotlight on ‘impunity’ in Ukraine,” RT, 23 September 2022
Launch of the “Save Crops Operation” initiative,” elysee.fr, 23 September 2022
Mike Stone “Congress tells Pentagon to speed review of large drones for Ukraine,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Suzanne Lynch, “Charles Michel favors opening EU to fleeing Russians,” POLITICO, 23 September 2022
Essi Lehto, “Finland mulls barring Russians from entering as border traffic grows,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Czechs will not issue humanitarian visa to Russians fleeing mobilisation,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Antonio Guterres, “Secretary-General's remarks to the Security Council on Ukraine,” un.org, 22 September 2022
Krishna N. Das, “India says Ukraine conflict trajectory, outlook very concerning,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Matthew Lee, “World opinion shifts against Russia as Ukraine worries grow,” AP News, 24 September 2022
Uzbekistan Suspends Russia's Mir Payment System,” The Moscow Times, 23 September 2022


23 September 2022, Friday I NIAS Europe Daily Brief #314

Putin's partial mobilization and public protests in Russia | War in Ukraine: Day 211

Possible revival for Italy's Five Star Movement; Spain to tax the wealthy; Fracking ban lifted in the UK

Photo : Maxim Shipenkov / EPA / ТASS


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Putin signs decree for partial mobilization in Russia: What has been the response?
On 21 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree declaring “partial mobilization in Russian Federation.” The move comes after Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv, Izyum and Kherson regions. In his speech to the Russian’s, he highlighted the freeing of residents from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, immediate need to protest Russia’s sovereignty, Ukraine’s claims to nuclear weapons, called the people from different ages and nationalities to unite in fighting for Russia. He said: “…talking specifically about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all those who served in the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience.”

What is the decree about?
First, recruitment of people into Russia’s Armed Forces. Russians who already have the “status of military personnel serving,” those who have reached the age limit set by the military, fulfilling the health conditions recognised by the military (some who are unfit and replaceable can be excepted upon their wish to serve), and prisoners are eligible to become part of the Russian Military.

Second, role of the government in the mobilization. The decree mandates the government to establish the follow to go forward with the partial mobilization process. One, setting a threshold to pay those recruited to serve under the mobilization equivalent to those serving already in the military. Two, providing terms for dismissal. Three, to financial aid and adopt needed measures to help the partial mobilization activities such as “troops and military formations.” Four, high rank official to be involved in the recruitment process to help attain the target number in the given time.

Third, entitlement to serve or exit the mobilisation. Those recruited will be provided contracts and are expected to serve until the “end of the period of partial mobilization.” A separate provision is allotted for the right of Deferment, if a citizen wishes to exit from the conscription from any of the Russian military organizations. As per the Decree, the category of citizens who can avail the exception and granting of rights will be reserved with the government.

What has been the response within Russia?
In response to the announcement of “Partial Mobilisation,” a set of people gathered for “anti-mobilisation” protests broke out in Russia. As of 22 September, close to 1330 people were detained across 42 cities.

Mapping of the protests
Maximum number of detained were found to be in the districts of Moscow city (539), St. Petersburg (482), Yekaterinburg (51), Permian (30), Chelyabinsk (26), Ufa (23), Krasnoyarsk (18), Voronezh (17), Krasnodar (14), Tver (13), Saratov (12), Kaliningrad and Ryazan (11), Irkutsk (9), Petrozavodsk (9), Arkhangelsk (8), Tula, Korolev, Novosibirsk, Ulan-Ude, Zheleznogorsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, Salavat and more districts. Except, Krasnoyarsk, Yekaterinburg, and Chelyabinsk in the east-central Russia (central Siberia), the protests are found to be widespread across the north, center and south of Western Russia.

Fleeing out of Russia
Another set of Russian seeing this as a threat fled to Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Finland, Istanbul, Belgrade, and neighbouring countries to avoid joining the military mobilisation. These countries are of particular target due to non-requirement of visas, and their flexible visa rules saw a rush in their border crossings after the passing of the decree. While Germany and the EU agreed to open their border for asylum seekers who strongly object Russia, the Baltic states and the Czech Republic said that they would restrict entry.

References
"Lists of detainees in connection with actions against mobilization on September 21," ovd.news, 22 September 2022
"Message from the President of the Russian Federation," Kremlin.ru, 21 September 2022
"Decree "On the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation"," Kremlin.ru, 21 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
France inaugurates first offshore wind firm
On 22 September, France’s President Macron visited Saint-Nazaire, to inaugurate its first offshore wind farm. The farm has 80 turbines and is the first of the 50 such facilities that France aims to build by 2050. In comparison to other European states, France has been lagging behind in terms of energy production as it tries to become more independent with their electricity production. While around 67 per cent of France’s electricity is produced by nuclear power, France is also aiming to increase its share of energy from renewable sources to 23 per cent by 2023. Currently, France has manged to reach only 19 per cent putting it in 17th position in the EU, where the average of the 27 member-states is 22 per cent. (“Macron opens France's first offshore wind farm amid European energy crisis,” France 24, 22 September 2022)

ITALY
Italy’s upcoming elections likely to witness a revival of the Five Star Movement
On 22 September, Euronews reported on the likelihood of the revival of the Five Star Movement in Italy, after Guiseppe Conte’s resignation as Italy’s prime minister in 2021. Criticized heavily for the way Conte handled Italy’s COVID 19 response, he also was a hardliner on issues like security, immigration and trade. In Italy’s upcoming general elections, Conte is leading the Five Star Movement, having taken over the party’s presidency from Luigi di Maio in 2021. As the Five Star Movement forms a minor party in the election race, Conte hopes to win over the electorate with mandates like scrapping the regional business tax and introducing a minimum wage. (“Giuseppe Conte: Italy's ex-PM bids to revive Five Star Movement,” Euronews, 22 September 2022)

MONTENEGRO
Demands foreign consultants to solve murder and attack cases on journalists
On 22 September, a minister without a portfolio in Montenegro, Zoran Miljanic said that they have asked foreign help to solve the old cases of attacks on journalists. Miljanic informed that experts from the US and the UK, especially from intelligence services like the FBI will consult with Montenegrin authorities to solve these cases. Montenegro has historically faced an issue with establishing an environment conducive for investigative journalism and media freedom. The European Commission’s 2021 progress report and US State Department’s March report on human rights also pointed this problem out. Miljanic said that the first case to be discussed would be editor-in-chief and owner of the daily newspaper Dan, Dusko Jovanovic’s murder in 2004, which has still not been closed. 

NORTHERN IRELAND
Census reveals more Catholics than Protestants for first time
On 22 September, Northern Ireland released data from the 2021 census saying that for the first time, Catholics outnumber Protestants in the state. According to the census, 43.4 per cent of the population are from Protestant or other Christian background, while 43.48 are Catholic or from a Catholic background. Protestants are the group that support the unionist sentiment and want to safeguard Northern Ireland’s connection with the UK, while the Catholics, who are pro-Irish want to unite with the Republic of Ireland. While the difference between the two groups is not major, it might influence the results of a referendum, if one is conducted. (Rory Carroll, “Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for first time,” The Guardian, 22 September 2022) 

SPAIN
Wealthiest to be taxed one percent to ease inflation
On 22 September, Spain's government announced a temporary tax on the one per cent of the wealthiest of Spain's population. The tax is a part of the various measures taken by the government to help citizens deal with rising inflation, like providing stipends to students to stay in school, making public transport free and subsidizing petrol. Finance Minister Maria Jesus Montero said that it was important for the government to finance aid to ease the pressure of inflation on the “middle class and workers.” However, Montero or her ministry has not yet furnished the details of how much the tax rate would be. (“Spain plans temporary wealth tax amid high inflation,” Deutsche Welle, 22 September 2022)

Spain’s Mar Menor lagoon gets personhood status for increased protection
On 21 September, Europe’s largest salt-water lagoon in Spain, the Mer Menor lagoon was granted personhood status. The World Wildlife Fund marks the lagoon as a home to various species of fish, seahorse and the endangered European eel. However, periodic die-offs of marine life in the lagoon has been common for many years because of poor sewage systems, fertilizers, and discharge from mining activities. Thus, over 640,000 people supported a petition to safeguard the lagoon by granting it personhood status, and the Spanish Senate ratified it. The personhood status codifies that the lagoon has a right to “to exist as an ecosystem and to evolve naturally”, and to its protection, conservation and restoration. Caretakers who work in the area, including local officials, citizens and scientists, will now represent the 1600 square kilometres of the lagoon. (“Endangered Mar Menor lagoon in Spain granted legal status as a person,” The Guardian, 21 September 2022; Angela Symons, “Spain makes history by giving personhood status to salt-water lagoon, thanks to 600,000 citizens,” Euronews, 22 September 2022)

THE UK
Fracking to be resumed due to energy crisis despite environmental concerns
On 22 September, the UK government lifted the ban on fracking. The suspension was introduced in 2019 after fracking was linked to earth tremors and minor drilling. The decision to revoke the ban is accompanied by a review published by the British Geological Survey (BGS) which says that the understanding about the impacts of such drilling on tremors is limited. The move has triggered the activists and locals who had campaigned against fracking, who said that the government was willing to throw communities under the bus by forcing them to accept a higher degree of risk. Given the impending energy crisis, the Business and Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg responded to the allegation and said: “… tolerating a higher degree of risk and disturbance appears to us (the government) to be in the national interest given the circumstances.” (Esme Stallard, “Fracking ban lifted, government announces,” BBC, 22 September 2022)

REGIONAL
European Commission report on importance of culture for sustainable development
On 22 September, the European Commission published a report titled “Stormy Times: Nature and humans: Cultural courage for change”, ahead of the UNESCO's World Conference on Cultural Policies and Sustainable Development, scheduled from 28 to 30 September 2022. The report was prepared by 50 experts from 25 EU member-states who worked under the Open Method of Coordination under the European Commission. First, the report says that human development should factor in all facets of culture; second, it formulates a set of recommendations to better relations between humans and nature and use cultural imagination to develop a liveable, sustainable future. Third, it also mentions that future generations must be mobilised to meet this goal. (“Experts put forward recommendations on how to harness the power of culture for sustainable development,” ec.europa.eu, 22 September 2022)

European Commission and France pledge donations to Global Funds
On 22 September, at the UN General Assembly Summit, the European Commission announced that it would be donating EUR 715 million to Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. It marks the largest donation to ever be given by the Commission. The amount has been allocated for the 2023-25 period and is an addition to the EUR 150 million already given by the commission to the Global Fund in 2022 for COVID 19 responses. Part of the donation will be reserved to promote research and development of new treatment, vaccines and mitigation of other transmittable diseases. Additionally, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would give EUR 300 million to the Global Fund separately. (Clara Bauer-Babef, “EU to donate historic €715 million to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria,” Euractiv, 22 September 2022)

EU’s privacy supervisor sues European Parliament over Europol reform
On 22 September, POLITICO reported on European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) filed a legal challenge with the Court of Justice of the EU. In January 2022, Europol was ordered by the EDP to delete data on individuals with no criminal records or links, after it had allegedly misused their personal data. However, in June, the MEPs enacted a mandate which legalized these practices the EDPS had deemed illegal. Thus, suing the European Parliament, the EDPS said: “The contested provisions establish a worrying precedent… rule of law and EDPS independence under threat.” No response from the European Council or the Parliament has been received so far. (Vincent Manancourt, “EU privacy watchdog sues lawmakers over new Europol mandate,” POLITICO, 22 September 2022)

Europe’s parliamentarians urge the Commission to “make haste” with the EU-Taiwan investment deal
On 21 September, 35 parliamentarians from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark and Ukraine and the European Parliament wrote a joint letter to the EU’s leadership like the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council European Commissioner for Trade and Foreign Policy Chief. The letter urges the Commission to kickstart the EU-Taiwan Bilateral Investment Agreement. The parliamentarians say that stronger ties with Taiwan would be beneficial in many regards. The letter says: “To deepen our relationship with our democratic Taiwanese friends would not only be mutually beneficial but also of great geo-economic importance, as the EU is greatly dependent on highly advanced semiconductors produced in Taiwan." Even though the EU follows the “One China” Policy, it maintains commercial relations with Taiwan, which is the EU’s 12th largest trading partner in 2021. (Jorge Liboreiro, “European lawmakers issue joint appeal calling for EU-Taiwan investment deal,” Euronews, 21 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 211
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 22 September, On the same day, the fourth vessel chartered by the UN World Food Programme, the bulk carrier BC VANESSA, left the Odesa port to deliver 30000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan. So far, a total of 192 ships loaded with 4.38 million tonnes of Ukrainian crops left the Odesa port since the launch of the UN ‘grain initiative’. The ships have been sent to starving countries such as Ethiopia, Yemen and Afghanistan, which face a severe food security crisis.
 
On the same day, at an event hosted by the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, Ukraine President’s economic advisor, Oleg Ustenko, said that Ukraine had incurred damage of almost USD one trillion, directly or indirectly, due to the ongoing war. The estimated cost of the war is five times of Ukraine’s pre-war annual GDP. The destruction of infrastructures and displacement of people has significantly impacted the fall of the country’s economy. Even after drastically cutting government expenditure, and the preparedness of the West to provide financial aid to Ukraine, it has been short of USD 4.9 billion every month even after drastically cutting government expenditure. 

On 21 September, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shymhal stated that Ukraine needs international help for post-war reconstruction. Speaking at the UN Global Compact high-level event in New York, he urged foreign investors to help with the country’s recovery, and  said that the potential cost of the rebuilding is USD 750 billion in the years ahead.. He emphasized, "...It is the private sector that should become one of the main drivers of reconstruction," and Ukraine is creating various military risk insurance instruments. Shymhal  assured that there would be transparency to the recovery process and follow the principle of "rebuilding better than it was." He also said that Russia's frozen assets should be used for reconstruction as it was the aggressor.

In a statement issued by Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces on Facebook, it was reported that Ukraine had killed around 55510 Russian forces from the start of the war. So far, 2245 Russian tanks, 4804 armoured vehicles, 1342 artillery systems, 318 multiple launch rocket systems, 170 air defence systems, 254 warplanes, 219 helicopters, 950 operational-tactical UAVs, 241 cruise missiles, 15 warships, 3650 trucks and tankers, and 125 specialized pieces of equipment were destroyed by the Ukrainian forces. Russia has also suffered considerable losses in the Kramatorsk and the Donetsk directions.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

Russia-owned defence technology corporation, Rostek, plans to increase its production speed of Su-57 5th-generation stealth jet fighters and supply the new jet fighters to the Russian Air Force by the end of 2022. The production plan is expanding and modernizing to meet the increasing demands. The ramping up of Su-57 jet fighters' production started following the instruction of equipping more hardware for the military from Russia's President Vladimir Putin. 

Following the announcement by Putin regarding partial mobilization, several protests erupted in Moscow streets without the authorities' approval. Hundreds were arrested and faced fines or prison by Moscow's authorities as the protest was deemed unauthorized. The jail term required a court hearing. 

On 22 September, Russia's Senator of the Federation Council Andrei Klimov responded to the EU’s head of diplomacy, Josep Borrell’s announcement regarding the bloc's plan to impose new sanctions on Russia. The EU is considering the new sanctions as an answer to Russia conducting referendums in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In this context, Klimov said that the decision to accept these regions into Russia depended on their respective f its authorities. He added that the territories are an integral part of Russia and that the EU should concentrate on its citizens first.

Russia's spokesperson of the President, Dmitry Peskov, rejected the claim of calling up one million reservists that were allegedly part of the classified seventh paragraph of the partial mobilization decree. He emphasized on Shoigu’s announcement about calling up 300000 people but not all at once. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 22 September, the EU foreign ministers agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia and increase its weapons supply to Ukraine following Putin's announcement of partial mobilization at the UN. Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel said that Putin's announcement of nuclear weapons usage showed his desperation and readiness to destroy Ukraine. The EU ministers will formalize the new sanctions package in the mid-October formal meeting.

The EU condemned Russia's plan to conduct illegal referenda in DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson territory. It also condemned Russia's partial mobilization call. The EU feels that Russia is violating the UN charter by conducting the referenda thereby violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The bloc also supported Ukraine and said it would increase its backing until Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine.

On the same issues, Turkey refused to acknowledge the illegal referenda conducted in the four Russian-controlled regions. It condemned Russia's plans and said Turkey would not recognize the illegitimate referendum. Turkey has not recognized the annexation of Crimea in 2014 till now.

The Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, the UK, Germany, Italy and Ukraine and senior authorities from the US, Switzerland, and South Korea expressed their concerns about the safety and security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. They said they supported IAEA's findings and urged Russia to follow the agency's advice. The officials asked Russia to withdraw from the ZNPP and hand over the control to Ukraine.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in his speech at his first external faction meeting in Balatonalmadi that the war in Ukraine will continue and Hungary should prepare its defence if the conflict spills over into the country. According to Orban, the EU's sanctions on Russia are causing economic problems, food insecurities, an energy crisis and inflation. In his closing remarks, he said that Hungary has prepared and worked hard to secure its energy supply and also that Hungary will emerge from the crisis victoriously.

As per Finland's Border Guards asylum applications for those escaping from military conscription in Russia will be processed until the Finnish leaders say they oppose it. Finland has 11 official crossing points with Russia, and on 21 September, 4800 Russians crossed the border following the announcement of partial mobilization by Putin. The final decision from the Finnish parliament is yet to be confirmed.

On 22 September, Sweden's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ann Linde, tweeted that Sweden condemns the widespread detainment of peaceful protestors in the streets of Russia by Russian authorities after the announcement of partial mobilization. She said that the protestors gained respect from Sweden.
 
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned Putin's announcement of partial mobilization and threat of nuclear weapons usage. He added that the mobilisation order displays the failure of Putin's campaign in Ukraine to his Russian citizens.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 21 September, IAEA General Director Rafael Grossi wrote on his Twitter that he had a meeting with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Grossi and Kuleba discussed the positive and active consultation on creating a Safety and Security Protection Zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

On the same day, North Korea's Ministry of National Defence's Vice Director of the General Bureau of Equipment released a rare press statement that the allegations by the US against North Korea of providing arms to Russia were false. Denying the accusations, he said that the US is spreading false rumours of North Korea having weapons trade with Russia. He also added that they have never exported nor will export arms and ammunition to Russia.

Kyrgyzstan’s embassy in Moscow and Uzbekistan’s the Prosecutor-General's Office of another Central Asian state warned its citizens who are working as migrant labourers in Russia about the consequences of joining the partial mobilization call. Both states informed their citizens about the penalty of ten years in prison if they joined the Russian army. The Kyrgyz authorities said they would deem those working for the Russian military mercenaries. 

References
Russian Invasion Has Cost Ukraine ‘$1 Trillion’,” Kyiv Post, 22 September 2022
Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, “"Grain Initiative": the fourth vessel chartered by the UN left with Ukrainian wheat for Afghanistan,” Facebook, 22 September 2022
Ukraine sends 120,000 t of grain as part of UN World Food Programme,” Ukrinform, 22 September 2022
The Prime Minister of Ukraine and the President of Poland opened an event on post-war reconstruction in New York,” kmu.gov.ua, 22 September 2022
Ukraine’s Armed Forces already eliminated 55,510 Russian invaders,” Ukrinform, 22 September 2022
Russia to get new batch of 5th-generation fighter jets,” RT, 22 September 2022
Detentions at unauthorized ‘anti-mobilization’ protests in Russia,” RT, 21 September 2022
Moscow responded to EU plans to impose new sanctions due to referendums,” LENTA.RU, 22 September 2022
Peskov denied information about plans to mobilize a million people,” ria.ru, 22 September 2022
Tara Fair, “Putin to order 1 million soldiers to fight Ukraine - classified section of decree exposed,” express.co.uk,  22 September 2022
Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” consilium.europa.eu, 22 September 2022
John Irish and Michelle Nichols, “EU ministers agree to press ahead with new Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Turkey Condemns Russia’s ‘illegitimate’ Votes in Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 22 September 2022
Nuclear Safety: Joint statement on the safety and security of civil nuclear facilities in armed conflicts,” eeas.europa.eu, 21 September 2022
Viktor Orbán: Repeal the sanctions in Brussels!,” magyarnemzet.hu, 21 September 2022
Nikolaj Nielsen, “Finnish border guards will allow fleeing Russians to enter,” euobserver, 22 September 2022
Ann Linde, “Condemn widespread arbitrary arrests of peaceful protesters in Russia,” Twitter,  22 September 2022
Shaun Walker, “Russia trades Azov fighters for Putin ally in biggest prisoner swap of Ukraine war,” The Guardian, 22 September 2022
Ismail Shakil, “Putin's behavior sign of failing Ukraine invasion, says Canada's Trudeau,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Rafael Mariano Grossi, “We have begun constructive and active consultations,” Twitter, 21 September 2022
Vice Director General of General Bureau of Equipment of Ministry of National Defence of DPRK Issues Press Statement,” kcnawatch.org, 22 September 2022 
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan Warn Citizens Of Repercussions For Joining Russian Forces In Ukraine,” rferl.org, 22 September 2022


22 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #313

War in Ukraine: Day 210

Cost of Living crisis ignites protest in Brussels; Liz Truss and Joe Biden meet on the sideline of the UN General Assembly; Denmark becomes first UN member to compensate climate change damage or loss

Photo : Kremlin.ru


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

BELGIUM
Protests over the financial crisis 
On 21 September, protests grew in Brussels due to rising cost of living crisis. The soaring energy and food prices and vexation towards local, national and European politicians and employers made 10000 people gather in Brussels to protest. People demanded their politicians to  address the financial crisis. A law from 1996 on workers' well-being was asked to be altered so that trade unions could negotiate a pay rise. They urged the government to look for measures instead of blaming the problems on geopolitics. (Méabh Mc Mahon, “Thousands protest in Brussels over cost of living crisis,” Euronews, 21 September 2022) 
 
DENMARK
Denmark pledges to give DKK 100 million as compensation for climate change
On 20 September, Denmark pledged DKK 100 million to developing countries damaged by climate change. It has become the first UN member state to compensate for the loss and damage due to climate change. Denmark’s Development Minister said, “It is grossly unfair that the world's poorest should suffer the most from the consequences of climate change to which they have contributed the least.” The Danish Foreign Ministry said that DKK 35 million would be transferred to an organization that subsidizes insurance in poorer countries based in Frankfurt, Germany. Another DKK 32.5 million will be focused on climate change losses and damage in the Sahel region in North Africa’s Sahara desert. A further DKK 25 million will be spent on ‘strategic efforts’ to support current climate change negotiations ahead of COP27. The final DKK 7.5 million will be provided to civil society actors working in developing countries. The promise was made during the ministerial meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. (Rosie Frost, “Denmark becomes first country to pay for ‘loss and damage’ from climate change,” Euronews, 21 September 2022)
 
POLAND
Polish activists help the abandoned non-Ukrainian refugees near the border with Belarus
On 21 September, Deutsche Welle reported that Poland is pushing back refugees other than Ukrainians. The Afghans, Syrians, and Iraqis who fly to Belarus get stuck in the Bialowieza Forest, near the Polish border, due to Poland’s police and military force pushing back the refugees. These refugees are forced to cross the border illegally due to the government’s strict rules against them. The local human right activists from the town of Hajnowka near the forest that borders Belarus has been trying to help out the asylum seekers stuck in the forest by providing them with necessary food, healthcare, warm blankets and legal aid to the refugees. However, the government and other Polish criticize the efforts undertaken by the activists and harass them for their work with the migrants.  (Jacek Lepairz, “Poland's border wall hasn't stopped the flow of migrants from Belarus,” Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Biden and Truss discuss safeguarding the Belfast agreement 
On 21 September, the UK’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, met with US President Joe Biden for the first time since she took office. They discussed the topics of the Belfast agreement and the war in Ukraine. Biden asked Truss not to change anything to the Good Friday Agreement, and the peace in Northern Ireland should not be disturbed. He emphasized keeping the Northern Ireland Protocol by the UK, saying that it was important to maintain peace. (Steve Holland, “Biden, UK's Truss commit to protecting Northern Ireland deal,” Reuters, 22 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 210
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 21 September, President Zelenskyy heralded the return of 215 people imprisoned under Russia’s control. Among them, 188 people are part of the Azov battalion who had been involved in the siege of Mariupol, eight of them are injured soldiers from Olenivka and the remaining are fighters from the National Guard, employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, its army and navy. Five of these combat commanders will be released from captivity in Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has guaranteed his personal protection for them, ensuring that are kept in comfortable conditions. In exchange, Ukraine also returned 55 people to Russia, which included Putin-ally from Ukraine, Viktor Medvedchuk. 
 
On the same day, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine urged the international community not to recognize the referenda that are being organized by Russia in several occupied territories in Ukraine. The parliament specifically mentioned the referenda in LPR, DPR, Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia region to become a part of Russia. It said that the votes would be a violation of fundamental regulations, international law and the Constitution of Ukraine. The parliament also noted that the real threat from Russia currently is their continued aggression on Ukraine’s nuclear power facilities. Moreover, the recent partial mobilization announced by Putin is indicative of an escalation of criminal intentions by Russia towards Ukraine. 

The Moscow VIew
Claims by Russia

On 21 September, President Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilization in Russia. As per the Executive Order, citizens will be called up to provide service in the Armed Forces of Russia-based on a contract and will enjoy the status of military personnel. The Order also elaborates on the duration of the contracts, monetary compensation for the citizens and grounds for discharge. Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu said that up to 300,000 reservists would be called for service as a part of the process. Putin accused the West of nuclear blackmail and alleged that they are instigating Ukraine to attack Russian territory. Putin is apprehensive that the West led by US is also attempting to divide Russia, as they had done to the erstwhile Soviet Union during the end of the Cold War. In that context, he warned that Russia also has an impressive reserve of weapons of mass destruction that are more advanced that the ones NATO countries, and he would not be hesitant to use them if Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened. 
  
The announcement of partial mobilization brought about a widespread reaction from Russia’s citizens as well as from the international community. The protests in Russia started from Siberia and the far east, where dozens were detained shortly after the rallies began. From there, the protests spread to various parts of the country, like in the third largest city, Novosibirsk, in cities across the Volga-Ural region, in Bashkortostan, in Moscow, St. Petersberg and even in the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad too. At least 525 demonstrators have been arrested across Russia for protesting against the mobilisation. 
 
On the same day, Shoigu provided the first official estimate of Russia’s battlefield losses since March. According to Russia, 5937 Russian soldiers and around 61,000 Ukrainian soldiers were found to be killed.
 
Russia’s state-owned defence industry giant, Rostech will enhance its production capabilities to keep up with the growing demand for military hardware. President Putin has asked for a ramping up of the state’s defence procurement and acquisition program. Thus, Rostech, which is already responsible for more than 40 per cent of all defence acquisition contracts is taking management decisions to “further increase its production capacities to meet the goals” to enable Russia to “prevail and come out as victor.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

Amid Putin’s Executive Order regarding the partial mobilization in Russia, EU member-states, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which share borders with Russia informed that they will not allow Russians escaping the mobilisation of troops. The three Baltic countries have already restricted the entry of Russian tourists. In this regard, Estonia’s foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu said that “refusal to fulfil one’s civic duty in Russia” is not sufficient grounds to seek an asylum in another country, while Latvia’s foreign minister Edgars Rinkevics cited security concerns and Lithuania’s Interior Ministry said that each such application would be analyzed separately. 
 
While the Baltic States and Poland have restricted the entry of Russians in their territory, Georgia, which is a country with a history of tense relations with Russia, remains a popular spot for Russian tourists. Deutsche Welle reported that the streets of Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi are full of Russian speakers. However, it is unclear how many of them are tourists from Russia and how many of them are exiled. 
 
On 21 September, AP News reported that Germany’s biggest natural gas importer, Uniper would be nationalized. The deal between the government and the company marks increased state intervention due to the impending energy crisis. The deal features a government-financed capital increase of EUR eight billion. The highest stake in the company till now was controlled by Finland-based Fortum, but now the government will have a 99% stake in Uniper. Economy Minister, Robert Habeck said the deal was necessary to because of the major role that Uniper plays in the German gas market. However, the deal needs to be approved by the European Commission, as Uniper also holds stakes in power plants like in Britain, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia and Sweden. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 21 September, referring to Putin’s recent statements about the potential use of nuclear weapons, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine and the narrative popularized by them is a violation of the rules-based international order. Kishida, coming from the constituency of Hiroshima alleged that Putin’s nuclear blackmail is “totally unacceptable” and a “serious threat to the international community's peace and safety.” He urged the leaders present at the UN General Assembly’s annual meeting to reform the body to effectively deal with future crises similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On the same, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin reiterated China’s position about the conflict in Ukraine. Even though China has maintained friendly relations with Russia, from the beginning of the conflict, it has also been supporting a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and a negotiated peace. Wang said: “The purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations should be observed, the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously, and all efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully should be supported.”

On 21 September, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince conducted a successful mediation session with Russia and Ukraine to ensure the release of 10 international prisoners of war from Russia, as a part of the recent prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. The mediation was Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s efforts to promote humanitarian initiatives regarding the ongoing conflict. Saudi authorities have received the prisoners from Russia and will arrange for their safe return to their respective countries. Amongst the 10 prisoners are UK’s Aiden Aslin, Shaun Pinner and Morocco’s Brahom Saadoun, who had been threatened with execution after their capture. Two US citizens, Alexander Drueke and Andy Tai Huynh, accused of espionage and being a mercenary were also released. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said that five of the prisoners were from the UK, two from the US and the rest from Morocco, Croatia and Sweden. 

References
Today we have 215 pieces of good news – we bring our people home – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 22 September 2022
Parliament calls on global community not to recognize Russia’s sham ‘referenda’ in Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 21 September 2022
Address by the President of the Russian Federation,” kremlin.ru, 21 September 2022
West wants to partition Russia like USSR – Putin,” RT, 21 September 2022
Executive Order on partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation,” kremlin.ru, 21 September 2022
Putin Declares 'Partial' Mobilization Amid Ukraine Losses, Warns West of Nuclear Response,” The Moscow Times, 21 September 2022
Several Hundred Detained as Russians Protest Mobilization,” The Moscow Times, 21 September 2022
Russia to increase military hardware production,” RT, 21 September 2022
Biden accuses Russia of 'irresponsible' nuclear threats, violating U.N. charter,” Reuters, 21 September 2022
Baltic nations say they will refuse refuge to Russians fleeing mobilisation,” Reuters, 21 September 2022
Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation,” Reuters, 21 September 2022
Frank Jordans, “Germany nationalizes country’s biggest gas importer Uniper,” AP News, 21 September 2022
Benjamin Restle, “Georgia: Popular with Russian tourists, despite political tensions,” Deustche Welle, 21 September 2022
Crown prince mediates in Russia-Ukraine prisoner release,” Arab News, 21 September 2022
Aiden Aslin among 10 international ‘prisoners of war’ released by Russian authorities,” The Guardian, 21 September 2022
Kishida urges world to reaffirm rules-based order and reform U.N., The Japan Times, 21 September 2022
Cyril Ip, “China holds firm on its Ukraine stance while Putin sends more troops,” scmp, 21 September 2022

 


21 September 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #312

Feedback reports on EU’s food waste: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 209

Photo : Feedbackglobal


EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan

Environmental organization Feedback reports on EU’s food waste: Three takeaways

On 20 September, environmental organization Feedback EU released a report on how the EU’s food waste exceeds its imports thereby affecting the EU food security. It found that EU which had imported 138 million tonnes of agricultural products, close to 153.5 million tonnes of food were wasted every year. To address the issue, the European Environmental Bureau which comprises 43 organizations, in 20 EU countries issued a statement urging the EU and European Commission to adopt a legal framework regulating the member states to cut down the food waste. It said: “We, the undersigned, support the below proposals, introduce legally binding targets for EU member states to collectively achieve a 50% reduction in EU food loss and waste by 2030, these legally binding targets should require 50% reduction in all food loss and waste from farm to fork, and launch a review of expanding the scope of food waste measurement.”

Three takeaways
First, agriculture waste is a major contributor. The report has divided the actors in the food waste into five groups. One, primary production which includes the harvest waste, and post-harvest waste from the farming process, storage, transport, disease, and poor harvesting methods. The food waste from this segment was found to be the highest of all with close to 90 million tonnes from the EU farms mostly found in low-income countries than high-income countries as per the WWF-UK report 2021. Two, food waste from households marked the second highest with 32.5 million tonnes. Three, processing which involves manufacturing, transport, distribution, and packaging accounted for 15.4 million tonnes of food waste as per the Fusion 2016 report (no recent data available). Four, food services like restaurants, hotels, canteens and caterers had wasted 10.5 million tonnes of food, whereas the last group wholesale and retail, which involves food waste from supermarkets, distribution were 5.3 million tonnes as per the UNEP 2021 report. The major reasons for huge amounts of agricultural waste were a cosmetic rejection of buyers. Cosmetic conditions mean the delivery of food produced in the exact demanded size, shape and colour, but under uncontrollable weather and pest situations, farmers have no option. Such condition narrows when the price fluctuates making it more difficult for farmers to prevent wastage.

Second, slow approach towards the food waste management framework. The report found the derail in the EU setting up a legal framework to reduce food waste. Efforts began in 2010 to set specific targets to bring down food waste by the European Commission. In 2012, the European Parliament asked the Commission to take measures to half-down the waste by 2025, upon which the Commission proposed “Circular Economy Package in 2014,” but withdrew the plan since it felt it to be ambitious. After several negotiations between the European Council, Commission, and Parliament, a poor set of waste reduction targets were set at attaining a 30 per cent cut by 2025 and a 50 per cent cut by 2030. The recent initiative was in 2018 when the European Commission decided to make changes to its “Waste Framework Directive (WFD)” enforcing its member states to measure and report on waste quantity from 2020. But all the plans led to slowed down the setting of targets for years.

Third, interlinked impact on climate and gender. EU which is at its peak summers and heatwaves, reducing the contributing factors to climate change is critical. With keeping climate effect in mind, food waste forms six per cent of the total emissions. Europe’s Green Deal does target to regulate the food system to be more environmentally friendly and healthy, but the economic effect is more drastic. The report finds that eastern and northern Europe economies were most affected due to climate change. With the risk of climate change, women are most affected without access to resources, especially from marginalised communities and low-income countries. Therefore, to beat the GHG emissions, achieve SDG goals (12.3) and invent nature-based solutions, food wastage control measures or important than ever for Europe.
 
References
No time to waste,” Feedbackglobal, 20 September 2022
EU wastes more food than it imports, says new report,” EEB, 20 September 2022
Statement on EU legally binding targets to reduce food waste    ,” EEB, 20 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

ESTONIA 
Estonia's defence budget to exceed 2.7 per cent of its GDP says Defence Minister
On 21 September, ERR reported on the remarks on Gross Domestic Product, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur on defence spending. In his recent interview, Pevkur said that Estonia’s defence spending which was at 2.7 or 2.8 per cent was expected to increase. He said that there was no immediate need for anti-ballistic missiles, but in the future Estonia will improve its air defence with anti-ballistic missile capability. (“Minister: Defense spending to rise to at least 2.7 percent of GDP in 2023,” ERR, 21 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Macron and Truss met to discuss areas of cooperation during the UNGA77 meet
On 20 September, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Liz Truss met during the UNGA77 to discuss their bilateral relations. The equation has been strained for the past few years due to UK’s AUKUS deal with Australia, a clash over fishing, sausages and migrant channel. But both the leader discussed on Ukraine war, and France’s proposal to build European Political Community, where non-EU member can express their common ideas and energy cooperation. The “European Political Community” is a French idea to form a group to discuss “security, energy, and transport,” to build relations post-Brexit between the UK and other European countries. (“France and UK should 'reengage,' Macron says after Truss talks,” Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2022; Jessica Parker, “UK considers joining new European nations club,” BBC, 20 September 2022)

ECJ rules Germany’s internet and phone service providers to stop retaining customer data
On 20 September, the ECJ judged stating Germany was not abiding the data retention rule of the EU. It ruled that Germany’s internet and service providers were barred from storing customer information without reason and it can only save the info only under “severe threat to national security.” German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann welcomed the rule and said that it would help it to bring new regulations to remove the “unjustified data retention” from Germany's Telecommunications Act, which mandated the service providers to store customer data. (“German data retention rules not compatible with EU law, says top court,” Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2022)

European Council and Australia adopt a framework to boost political, security and economic partnership
On 20 September, the European Council adopted a decision on concluding a framework agreement between the EU member states and Australia. The framework aims to boost the partnership between both in terms of democratic principles, human rights, rule of law, and international security and engage in matters relating to security policy, climate change, and trade. This is mainly targeted to establish links between governments, leaders, businesses, and civil society. (“EU-Australia: Council adopts decision for the conclusion of a framework agreement,” consilium.europa.eu, 20 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 208
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
On 19 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to discuss the developments along the front lines. According to the Chief, the armed forces in the Kharkiv region were stabilizing by holding on to their positions. He appreciated the efforts of the National Police and the Secret Service of Ukraine for their effective work in the Kharkiv region. Zelenskyy also mentioned that the pace of the counteroffensive launched by Ukraine was important to be maintained in the de-occupied land, and in the movement of Ukraine’s troops.

On 20 September, at the Global Food Security Summit, Zelenskyy spoke about how Ukraine was familiar with the idea of “food security” has lost millions of people to Holodomors. He blamed Russia for blockading the ports of Ukraine and for preventing the establishment of new export logistics due to their continuous attacks. However, he highlighted the resumption of agricultural exports and ensured its continuity with the UN World Food Program, especially for Somalia and Ethiopia.

Also on 20 September, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformations, Mykhailo Fedorov said that Ukraine’s IT Army obtained information about Russia’s Wagner Private Military Company. It alleged that the group had persuaded prisoners in Russia-occupied Ukraine to sign a military contract to fight against Ukraine. Fedorov remarked that they have access to all personal data of the mercenaries and that every executioner, murderer, and rapist will be severely punished.

In an interview with POLITICO, the Deputy Head of the President's Office, Andriy Smyrnov reiterated the need for an independent war crimes tribunal, given the killings in Izyum. Smyrnov suggested that the trials should be modelled after the Nuremberg trials, instead of being conducted by the ICC, as it risks being influenced and controlled by Russia. The Czech Republic, holding the EU presidency backed the idea, along with the EU's Foreign Policy Chief, Joseph Borrell. However, the US, the UK and the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen expressed their support to the ICC to coordinate the trials.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 September, Interfax reported on Russia’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov remarks, where he said that a negotiated peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine was not possible. He said: “…at the moment, such a prospect cannot be observed.” Russia blamed Ukraine for the suspension of negotiations since April when Ukraine alleged that Russia had committed war crimes and stopped adhering to the peace agreement drafted by the two countries in March.

On 20 September, Russia’s State Duma unanimously passed legislation that will serve jail terms of up to 15 years for military surrender. As per the bill, desertion during mobilization, war or under martial law will be punishable by up to 10 years, voluntary surrender, looting by up to 15 years, and refusing military service can also be jailed. The bill will be placed in the Federation Council on 21 September and is expected to pass before President Putin signs it into law.

On 19 September, Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev spoke at the 17th China-Russia strategic security consultation. Held in Fujian province in China, the event was co-hosted by Patrushev and a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist party's Central Committee, Yang Jiechi. The meeting discussed future potential areas of strategic cooperation on deepening of trust and establishing a more stable environment for mutual development.

On the same day, RIA Novosti, cited Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov’s comments regarding the referendums in the LPR and DPR. He said: “From the very beginning… we said that the peoples should decide their fate. And the whole current situation confirms that they want to be masters of their own destiny,” The comments follow the appeals by the heads of the public chambers of the republics, Leonid Pasechnik and Denis Pushilin to start the referendum processes. The LPR Ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik said that while conducting the votes under wartime conditions was difficult, it was not impossible. He said that the people of LPR have shown “a clear manifested desire” to initiate the procedure of joining Russia. The voting is expected to be from 23 to 27 September. In the same context, the Deputy Head of the Kherson Region’s military-civilian administration, Kirill Stremousov spoke to TASS and said that the people of Kherson are also prepared to ensure Russia’s presence in the region forever. He said: They are ready to go to vote in a referendum, provided there are security guarantees and Russia will stay here forever.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 20 September, Germany and Slovenia signed a deal where Slovenia will send 28 soviet-era tanks to Ukraine in exchange for 40 military trucks from Germany.

On 20 September, Germany's Economy Minister said that despite the lack of Russian gas and the impending energy crisis, Germany would meet its 95 per cent storage target by November. According to data by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI), Germany's gas storage facilities are already 90 per cent full. Habeck said that if the weather is favourable, Germany would be able to get through the winter comfortably. However, he also warned that the gas reserves will be "really empty" after the winter as all the stored gas will be used up.

On 20 September, the UN General Assembly meeting marks the first international engagement of Liz Truss as the prime minister of the UK. Her office reported that for 2023, she would pledge to exceed the USD 2.6 billion of military aid sent to Ukraine in 2022. On the same day, in an interview with BBC, Truss mentioned that the UK would also contribute to Europe’s energy independence saying: “We cannot see Russia succeed, but we also make need to make sure we're more energy independent, and we're less dependent on those authoritarian regimes.”

On 20 September, the UK Defence Ministry in its intelligence update reported about Russia’s Black Sea Fleet being relocated. The report said that due to the increased long-range strike capacity of Ukraine and their counteroffensive, the command of the Black Sea Fleet has been shifted from Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting, Erdogan spoke to PBS NewsHour and said that Putin must return all the territory in Crimea, under Russia’s control to its “rightful owners.” He referred to the Crimean Tatars as rightful descendants of Turkey, when it was under a protectorate of the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan said that he has maintained this stance since 2014, but no step has since been taken in that regard. Referring to his meeting with Putin in Uzbekistan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Erdogan said that Putin gave him the impression that Russia was “willing to end this as soon as possible,” as the on-ground developments have not been in Russia’s favour. He also mentioned that 200 hostages will be exchanged between Russia and Ukraine soon. 

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 September, the yearly meeting at the UN General Assembly began and it focussed on the various crises the world is facing. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “We are grid locked in colossal global dysfunction… our world is in peril — and paralyzed.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the central theme for many speakers, especially the food security and fertilizer crisis that it has catalysed and the attacks on the nuclear power plants in Ukraine. 

On the same day, Myanmar’s junta spokesperson said that Myanmar was discussing the use of a Mir card for payments with Russia. The system will make the direct exchange of ruble and kyat currencies easier. He also mentioned that once the central banks of the two states signed the pact, bilateral economic cooperation is also expected to "grow sharply." The Head of the Military government, Min Aung Hlaing mentioned they were also considering replacing of the dollar with other currencies like the yuan, rupee, and ruble.

References
The pace of providing aid to Ukraine by partners should correspond to the pace of our movement - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua19 September 2022
The state that provokes famine should get the toughest reaction from the world - President's speech at the Global Food Security Summit,” president.gov.ua21 September 2022
Ukrainian IT-Army hacks website of Wagner Group – Fedorov,” Ukrinform, 20 September 2022
Russia relocates submarines from Crimea due to threat of Ukrainian strikes - British intelligence,” Ukrinform, 20 September 2022
Suzanne Lynch, “Ukraine at UN: We need a Nuremberg-style war crimes trial,” POLITICO, 20 September 2022
Peaceful solution to Ukraine crisis currently not possible – Russia,” RT, 20 September 2022
Russian Lawmakers Approve Long Jail Terms for Military Surrender, Refusal to Serve,” The Moscow Times, 20 September 2022
Lavrov announced the desire of the inhabitants of Donbass to be "masters of their own destiny",” LENTA.RU20 September 2022
Holding referendum amid hostilities is difficult, yet possible — LPR ambassador to Russia,” TASS, 20 September 2022
Kherson Region’s people ready for referendum to join Russia forever — authorities,” TASS, 19 September 2022
German gas storage 90% full ahead of winter despite Russian cuts,” Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2022
Toby Melville, “On first international trip, UK's Truss pledges Ukraine support,” Reuters, 21 September 2022
Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’,” POLITICO, 20 September 2022
Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war,” BBC, 20 September 2022
Our world is in peril’: At UN, leaders push for solutions,” AP News, 20 September 2022
Myanmar discussing with Russia use of Mir card for payments,” Channel News Asia, 20 September 2022
Khine Lin Kyaw, “Myanmar to Lower Dollar Reliance in Favor of Ruble, Yuan,” Bloomberg, 20 September 2022
Russia always regards ties with China as diplomatic priority: Russian envoy at bilateral strategic security consultation,” Global Times, 20 September 2022


20 September 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #311

NATO’s Military Committee annual conference 2022: What was discussed? | War in Ukraine: Day 208

German nuclear plant reported to be leaking; Erasmus turns 35; EU’s 135 billion tonnes of food waste; Sweden’s moderate party asked to form the government

Photo : NATO


EM Daily Focus
By Rishma Banerjee

NATO’s Military Committee annual conference 2022: What was discussed?

On 16 September, the NATO Military Committee met in Tallinn, an annual conference organized by Estonia. Leaders discussed on the nuanced security posture of NATO upon Ukraine war and ways to implement the decision taken during the 2022 Madrid Summit. The conference was attended by Chiefs of Defence of all allied nations including Finnish and Swedish Defence Forces. In a statement released by the NATO, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Christopher Cavoli briefed on the present and future posture in the eastern flank and how NATO aims to establish a 360-degree security alliance. The Chair of the Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer said: “Without a doubt: a new era for global security has begun. The entire international rules-based order is under attack. And it is up to the free, democratic nations of the world to protect it. Winter is coming, but our support for Ukraine shall remain unwavering.” According to Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces: “Today's discussions reflected a common understanding that we are moving in the right direction. However, we must remember that time and speed are also important.”
 
What was discussed?
First, Sweden and Finland’s presence shows its growing interoperability with NATO. The Head of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer said that Sweden and Finland can contribute in defence planning once all the member-states ratify their accession, Sweden and Finland were invited to “get acquainted to the procedures.” With Sweden and Finland’s accession progressing, the pressure increases on Russia and boosts confidence of the eastern flank which could benefit from the defence forces, and weaponry from Sweden and Finland.
 
Second, reinforcement of NATO’s ‘deter and defend strategy’. The committee acknowledged the changing global security balance and reaffirmed their commitment to NATO’s ‘deter and defend strategy.’ It is to ensure the effectiveness of NATO’s rapid-deployment forces operation and establish a common point amongst the alliance military leaders to view the regional and global challenges. The strategy was observed to be in line with NATO’s 360-degree approach based on an amalgamation of nuclear, conventional and missile defence capabilities, across land, air, maritime domains, and space and cyber capabilities. The meeting clarified that the strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank was not a new development since the Ukraine War, but an agenda since Russia’s installation of troops near the EU border countries. The meeting reiterated its action taken to deploy “strong and combat-ready troops on the Alliance’s eastern flank” and to establish four new battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, as agreed in the Madrid summit.
 
Third, concern about global security issues and rising geopolitical tension. The meeting discussed how the Ukraine war and other recent developments has put the entire “rule-based order under attack.” Growing China’s military and threat to NATO’s global security posture was highlighted in the discussion. The Chiefs of Defence discussed NATO's ongoing operations, missions and activities, including the NATO Mission Iraq and Kosovo Force, reinforcing NATO’s goal of protecting the one billion allied population under its ambit from international threats.
 
Fourth, NATO’s assured support to Ukraine. Russia’s invasion, which has revitalised the global security, the need to “sustain” and “expand allied assistance to Ukraine,” was important. The discussion focused on how the military assistance to Ukraine can be maintained to capitalize on the recent successful counteroffensive. Leaders in the conference reiterated their support for Ukraine, which would continue for as long as it takes, to prevent Russia from getting the opportunity to alter the current rule-based international order.
 
Fifth, Estonia’s growing stake in NATO. Through the 2022 Military Committee Meeting, host-country Estonia is also aiming to develop a more intensive partnership with NATO, and thus bolster its own security, especially in “digital innovation.” Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that Estonia was making significant investments to increase our ammunition stocks, improve existing capabilities and develop, upgrade infrastructure to host allies and for more troop rotation.
 
References
The conference of the NATO Military Committee ended in Tallinn,” Estonia Defence Forces, 18 September 2022
Opening statements of the press conference,” nato.int17 September 2022
Opening remarks,” nato.int17 September 2022
Opening remarks,” nato.int16 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GERMANY
Leak reported in Germany’s nuclear power plant
On 19 September, one of Europe’s largest energy network operators, E.ON informed Germany’s Federal government that the Isar 2 nuclear power plant has a leak at the site in Bavaria. The leak will not affect civil society or public safety. However, it is one of the plants that the German government plans to keep on standby beyond 2022, due to the impending energy crisis. The Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety, and Consumer Protection Ministry said that they were confident that Isar 2 would be able to contribute to Germany’s power supply after 31 December, if a weeklong maintenance period in October  was successfully conducted. (“German nuclear reactor leak poses no safety threat but complicates plans,” Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2022)

ITALY
Meloni accuses local police of inadequate response to protestors
On 19 September, Georgia Meloni of the Brothers of Italy party accused the country's authorities of allowing protestors to disrupt her party’s campaign efforts and rallies. She criticized the local police under Interior Minister, Luciana Lamorgese’s charge and said that she has asked Lamorgese for an explanation about the same. After a Brothers of Italy rally on 18 September saw the sixth consecutive demonstration from protestors, Meloni said: “I will not allow the election campaign of Brothers of Italy to be ruined because someone does not know how to do their job.” Meloni who is expected to become Italy’s next Prime Minister following the elections on 25 September also mentioned that these protestors had insulted her and her supporters and posing a risk of inciting violence. (“Meloni cries foul as protesters disrupt rallies ahead of Italian election,” POLITICO, 19 September 2022)

SWEDEN
Moderate Party’s Ulf Kristersson to form a new government
On 19 September, the Speaker of Sweden’s parliament, Anders Norlen said that the Moderate Party’s leader, Ulf Kristersson will try to form the next government, after the left-wing secured the majority in the general elections. The coalition of the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals narrowly edged past the centre-left by winning 176 out of 349 seats in the Parliament. Norlen said that a deadline has not been set yet for Kristersson to conduct his deliberations and conclude the mandate he has been given. However, he expects the process to take lesser time than in 2018 when it took 134 days to establish a new government. (Leila Nezirevic, “Swedish parties begin talks on government formation,” Anadolu Agency, 19 September 2022; “Sweden's Moderate Party leader gets nod to try form a new government,” Reuters, 19 September 2022)

THE UK
London sees largest police operation due to Queen’s funeral
On 19 September, Deutsche Welle reported on the extensive police presence in the UK to coordinate Queen Elizabeth’s funeral. The event, dubbed by the police as “Operation London Bridge is Down” is being attended by VIPS, members of royal families across the world, Commonwealth leaders, and several heads of state like US President Joe Biden and is the biggest single police operation in London’s history. The Deputy Assistant Commission of the Metropolitan Police Stuart Cundy said that the event was unprecedented. Helicopters and sharpshooters were dispatched and over 20,000 police officers are on duty to ensure the funeral runs smoothly. Nearly every police horse was also drafted to pay one last respect to the Queen. Cundy also asked the public to be vigilant and report any untoward incident to the police. He assured, “… All response will be proportionate and balanced, and [the police] will only take action when it's absolutely necessary." (“The funeral of Queen Elizabeth II: An unprecedented police operation in London,” Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Erasmus Program turns 35
On 20 September, the European Commission Vice President, Margaritis Schinas, and Commissioner for Innovation, Mariya Gabriel will meet 35 Erasmus+ participants to commemorate the 35th anniversary of the Erasmus Program. The program which started in 1987 with 3,000 university students and has undergone various changes over the years to extend to school education, vocational education, higher education, and adult education. In 2014, the name of the program changed from Erasmus to Erasmus+ to indicate the expansion of mobility opportunities. Gabriel said: "Erasmus+ is a true European success story… almost 13 million participants have been able to learn, work, or train abroad. And, they all tell us the same afterwards: that the program is life-changing.” (“Celebrating 35 years of the Erasmus programme,” ec.europa.eu19 September 2022)

Feedback EU reports finds EU’s food wastes more than its food imports
On 20 September, The Guardian reported on Feedback EU’s report on the amount of food waste created by the EU. The report said that around 153 million tonnes of food are wasted every year by the bloc. Allegedly, just the amount of wheat wasted in the EU is around half of Ukraine’s total wheat exports. The director of Feedback EU, Frank Mechielsen said: “At a time of high food prices and a cost of living crisis, it’s a scandal that the EU is potentially throwing away more food than it’s importing.” On the same issue, a senior policy officer for the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) said that the member-states had committed to decreasing food waste by half as per the UN SDGs. However, not much has been achieved in this regard. Later in 2022, the EU is expected to propose legally enforceable goals to curb food waste, and as per Feedback EU’s suggestion, aim for a 50 per cent decrease in food waste by 2030. (“EU wastes 153m tonnes of food a year – much more than it imports, says report,” The Guardian, 20 September 2022)

CLIMATE
Global Fossil Fuel registry launched
On 19 September, Carbon Tracker and the Global Energy Monitor announced the launch of the Global Registry of Fossil Fuels. The database, which is a first of its kind, will record data regarding oil and gas reserves and production and emission details from over 50,000 fields across 89 countries. This database will cover 75 per cent of global fossil fuel production and reserves. The Global Energy Monitor said that data would be collected from various sources like governments, state-owned and private companies, media reports, NGOs and other on-the-ground contacts providing first-hand information. The launch of the Registry also coincides with the climate talks at the UN General Assembly in New York and the upcoming COP27 meeting in November 2022. (“World's first fossil fuel registry launches,” Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 208
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 19 September, Ukraine's state energy company Energoatom reported on the Russian attacks on Ukraine second largest nuclear power plant, Pivdennoukrainsk located in the south of Mykolaiv. As per the report the attack hit 300 meters away from the reactors, with no damage to the plant, except the power buildings. The power supply is reported to continue in all three units of the plant. On the same, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticised Russia for launching attacks near the nuclear plant, risking the world. He said: “The invaders wanted to shoot again, but they forgot what a nuclear power plant is,” and warned of a nuclear catastrophe.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 September, on the global criticism over Russia on the war crimes in the Kharkiv region, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, responded stating that it was similar to Bucha incident, “a lie,” and said that the ongoing war will reveal the true story. Zelenskyy had said that to prove the claim, certain assessment was being done to corner Russia on its war crimes.
 
On 19 September, RT reported on people residing in Donbas call on holding referendum to join Russia. The Russian spokesperson said that the residents in the DPR region had been demanding for a decision over holding a vote. On the same Head of the so-called military-civilian administration said on the residents: “…want guarantees that we will become a part of the Russian Federation.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 19 September, the European Commission reported on Germany, Slovakia, and Bulgaria receiving a support of EUR 111.5 million under the REACT-EU of European Social Fund (ESF). The fund is aimed to held the labour market, healthcare services and to attain sustainable socio-economic recovery in the face of war.
 
On 19 September, the German Defence Ministry issues a statement on the supply of four more Howitzers to Ukraine of Panzerhaubitzer 2000's cadre. In a statement it said: “With that, the number of the systems delivered in collaboration with the Netherlands rises to 22, of which 14 are from Germany.” On the same, the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte assured to collaborate with Germany to provide military support to Ukraine and promised for future initiatives. Earlier Germany had promised to give “two MARS II multiple rocket launcher systems and 50 more armored military personnel carriers known as Dingos,” which are expected to be delivered soon to Ukraine.
 
The UK intelligence in its daily update found that Russia had lost close to four combat jets in past 10 days, totalling to 55 since invasion. It said that Russia’s setback in air defence has been the exploitative benefit for Ukraine to advance. The reason for the setback was also due to the Russian air force’s poor “situational awareness.”
 
On 19 September, in response to the nuclear attack in the southern Mykolaiv, Poland began to issue iodine pills to the firefighters and people as remedial measures in case of a nuclear accident. In a statement: “This is a standard procedure provided by law, which is applied in the event of a possible (nuclear) radiation emergency.”
 
The Baltic countries brought the temporary ban on crossing border to enter the EU for Russian people into practice. Only exception will be for those who hold permanent residency cards in either Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will be allowed. Apart from that, anyone with Schengen visas trying to enter for tourism, business, or cultural needs will be banned from entering.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 19 September, the UNGA77 started in New York, EU delegation High Representative, Joseph Borell met the UN Secretary General António Guterres. The key discussion is expected to be on transforming education, consequence over Ukraine war, measures to prevent food crisis and economic challenges.
 
In a report in BBC, covered the state of Sri Lankans under Russian forces. During the capture of Izyum city by Russia, Sri Lankan people who were under captive reported on being sent as forced labour, kept as prisoner and tortured. The group who were in Ukraine for education or work purposes disclosed on the poor conditions and the treatment of the Russians. According to one of the survivors: “They used to beat us when we went to take a shower. They didn't even allow me to meet the others. We were stuck inside for three months.”

References
Russia-Ukraine updates: Russia strikes land near nuclear power plant,” Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2022
Sofia Bettiza, “Sri Lankans freed from Russian brutality in Ukraine,” BBC, 20 September 2022
Daily News 19 / 09 / 2022,” European Commission, 19 September 2022
Second Donbass republic wants vote on uniting with Russia,” RT, 19 September 2022
Kiev’s war crime claim is 'a lie' – Moscow,” RT, 19 September 2022


19 September 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #310

European Parliament report on Hungary: Findings and recommendations | War in Ukraine: Day 206 & 20

NATO holds military committee meeting; Moldova's anti-government protests; Serbia's police arrests EuroPride demonstrators

Photo : KISBENEDEK/AFP/Europa,eu


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

European Parliament reports Hungary as “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”: Findings and recommendations

On 15 September, European Parliament adopted a report highlighting Hungary breach of Article 7 on protection of EU values and rule of law and EU’s indecisiveness. In the voting held, 433 voted in favour while 123 voted against, and 28 abstained from voting on adopting the report. The European Parliament began monitoring the binding of Hungary of Article 7 in 2018 in 12 areas namely, functioning of constitutional and electoral system, independence of the judiciary, corruption, data protection, and freedom of academic, religion, and association. It was to relook into Hungary’s accession into the EU.

On 17 September, Victor Orban's Chief of Staff, confirmed on the submission of legislation that includes establishing of "anti-corruption watchdogs" to examine the use of EU funds. The spokesperson assured to comply to EU's regulations and to negotiate on those to reach settlement with the EU.

On 18 September, the European Commission taking the European Parliament’s proposal into account announced its plan to forfeit EUR 7.5 billion of EU funds to Hungary. The decision comes over concerns of breach of rule of law and misuse of the EU funds. In response Hungary’s Justice Minister Judit Varga said: “The European Parliament is, by definition, a political institution, therefore it operates with majorities of political ideologies, their political mission is to carry out a witch hunt against a country which doesn’t accept having its political ideology determined by the European Parliament.”

With the release of the report, it found that important provisions in the Article 2 and 7 which included democracy, fundamental rights, judicial independency had declined since 2018. As per the report: “stresses that the Hungarian Government bears responsibility for the restoration of compliance with EU law and the values enshrined in Article 2 TEU and expresses deep regret that the lack of decisive EU action has contributed to a breakdown in democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary, turning the country into a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy, according to the relevant indices.”

Findings of the report
The report found the breach of values mentioned in the following Articles of Treaty of the European Union (TEU) in terms of “human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law,” and fundamental rights which are equal to all the member states. As per Article 2, a violation of EU’s fundamental values by any member states means “an attack” on people’s freedom, political and social rights. Article 4 (3) mandates the EU and its member states to help each other and obliging to the treaties of the EU. Article 19 TEU requires the following of the rule of law and imposes responsibility on the member states to ensure the application of EU law and judicial protection of individual rights under ECJ. Since the start of monitoring process from 2018, the European Parliament found that, past many year Hungary had been weary of the concerns raised by the EU showcasing a negative image on the EU’s credibility on defending the breached articles. It provide four key scenarios of violation by Hungary, where it plans to reroute ECJ functioning, Hungary’s resolution to limit the  power of European Parliament through appointment of the member of parliament instead of elections, and its block to EU’s restrictive measures towards Russia, pushing for a security problem and dejecting EU’s attempts to protect the values given in Article 2.

Recommendations
First, warning to European council over checking on breach of rule of law. Raising concerns over Hungary's non-binding act on EU’s values, asks Hungary to take responsibility to restore its compliance with the EU. It suggests the European Council to look into the new developments post 2018 which has further affected Hungary rule of law, and underlined that no unanimity was needed under Article 7 (1) to identify the risks of breach in the Union values, giving recommendations, deadlines and in executing the recommendations. The European Parliament warned that upon the failure to implement the recommendation would deem the council as violator of the rule of law principle.

Second, focus on the judicial independence and fund programmes. The European Parliament recommended the Council and the Commission to look into the “infringement procedures,” interim measures, and to recall the Court’s judgements which were not instrumentalized. Highlighting the application of the “Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation,” which is a tool to Article 7 which needs to be practised by all member states. The European Parliament taking account of Hungary’s misuse of the EU funds stresses the Commission to withhold or restrict fund programmes, cohesion policy leading to the misuse and to ensure enforcement of the recommendations on rule of law and judgement given by CJEU and ECHR. As an alternative to the fund allocation, it suggest the Commission to distribute funds through local governments and NGO’s upon Hungary’s refusal to cooperate in implementing the rule of law. At most priority being, the application of “Common Provisions Regulation and the Financial Regulation,” to skim down the misappropriation of funds which are at high risk with Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Third, support to civil society groups and keeping up the European identity. Last set of recommendation revolve around increasing of support to independent civil society groups. It can done through deploying a comprehensive civil society strategy to protect the rights, civic space in the EU. It also recalled the need to protect the European identity, its values which forms basis to the EU and to clearly state the costs of the breach of the EU fundamental values.

References
Commission proposes €7.5B funding cut for Hungary but opens compromise path,” POLTICO, 18 September 2022
Government: EU sanctions have made Russia richer and Europe poorer,” Dailynewshunagry, 18 September 2022
MEPs: Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy,” European Parliament, 15 September 2022
TEXTS ADOPTED,” European Parliament, 15 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

MOLDOVA
Protests erupt in Moldova over high energy prices; demands resignation of government
On 18 September, Moldovans gathered in Chisinau to protests against the high inflation and rising prices of energy. Reuters reported the number of people in the city’s main square to be around 20,000, but the police estimated 6,500 people. The protest was primarily against the resignation of the pro-Western President Maia Sandu and her government. It accused Sandu on failing to tackle the rising energy prices, which increased by 50 per cent in August and by an additional 29 per cent in September. Inflation rate in Moldova is at 34.3 per cent and interest rates are 21.5 per cent. A member of the opposition Sor Party, Dinu Turcanu said: “Moldova is now in clinical death, to which the current authorities have brought it.” (Alexander Tanas, “Thousands take part in anti-government protest in Moldova,” Reuters, 19 September 2022)
 
LATVIA
Riga houses will have reduced heating temperatures to cut cost and energy usage
On 17 September ENG.LSM.lv reported on the measures taken by Latvia’s housing industry to tackle the rising prices and scarcity of energy. The Rigas Namu Parvaldnieks (RNP), which manages most apartments in Riga said that it will reduce heating temperatures for the buildings by one to two degrees Celsius. The reduction is expected to save costs by five to ten per cent. Current regulation stipulates that heating temperatures cannot be lesser than 18 degrees. However, a board member of the Jurmala City District Heating Company, Valdis Vitolins alleged that given how outdates the heating systems in most of these buildings are, it will be difficult to ensure a uniform temperature in all buildings. (“Many Rīga residents will have cooler homes this winter,” eng.lsm.lv, 17 September 2022)

SERBIA
Police arrests activists after clashes reported in EuroPride
On 17 September, Serbia’s police made over 64 arrests from the people who were taking part in Belgrade’s EuroPride march. The event, which is the pinnacle of the EuroPride programme, was banned by Serbia’s interiors ministry due to security concerns. However, LGBTQ+ activists said that they would conduct the march unofficially, even after right-wing groups threatened to hold protests. Despite the ban, the demonstrators marched from the constitutional court to a nearby park, which was a much shorter route than the original route planned by EuroPride. Other than the sporadic clashes between the demonstrators and the police, the march took place without any serious altercations. (“Serbian police arrest dozens as Belgrade EuroPride marchers defy ban,” The Guardian, 17 September)

REGIONAL
Sweden and Finland participate in NATO’s military committee meeting for the first time
On 16 September, the NATO military committee met in Tallinn, Estonia to discuss on the deterrence and defence activities decided in the 2022 Madrid Summit. The meeting marked the first time that defence forces from Sweden and Finland were invited to take part. However, the head of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer said that Sweden and Finland can contribute in defence planning after all the member countries have ratified He mentioned that Sweden and Finland had been invited to “get acquainted to the procedures.” On the same issue he added that with Sweden and Finland’s accession, NATO will get more territory to defend and also have a longer border with Russia. He said: “… But we also get Finland and Sweden's armed forces that are very capable to help guard that territory and longer border. Russia will get a longer border with NATO without extra troops." (“NATO Military Committee chair: New era in global security,” ERR News, 18 September 2022)

Sweden considers contributing to defence capacity and security of Baltic region after NATO  accession
On 17 September ERR News published about a report issued by Sweden’s defence forces about contributing to the security and defence of the Baltic region, once its accession procedure is complete. The report also mentioned that the planning of Sweden’s post-accession activities have progressed “quite far.” To maintain the security of the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Sweden can play a major role. It can contribute to NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission based in Estonia and Lithuania. Moreover, it can also contribute to NATO’s naval and ground forces stationed in the region. (“Portal: Sweden may contribute to Estonian defense once NATO member,” ERR News, 17 September 2022)

Hungary to propose new law amidst EU’s plan to suspend funding
On 17 September, Victor Orban's Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas told reporters that Hungary will submit legislation to the parliament in the coming week to tackle corruption and a lack of transparency in government spending. The legislation will be to unlock the funding for Hungary from EU’s cohesion fund. Gulyas said that in some areas, the government has accepted the European Commission’s recommendations. In other areas, it has reached a compromise with the Commission that is suitable for both parties. Gulyas also mentioned that if approved by the Parliament, the legislation could become valid from November 2022. However, on 18 September, the Commission recommended that the EU should suspend EUR 7.5 billion of Hungary’s funding over persistent rule of law issues, violations of fundamental rights and possible mismanagement of EU money. The EU Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn spoke about how despite Hungary’s proposals to address the deficiencies, no concrete action had been taken. (“Hungary presses forward with anti-corruption plan to secure EU cash,” Deutsche Welle, 17 September 2022; Gabriela Baczynska and Gergely Szakacs, “In a first, European Union moves to cut Hungary funding over damaging democracy,” Reuters, 18 September 2022)

ECONOMY
European Commission faces criticism for upcoming Single Market Emergency Instrument
On 16 September, POLITICO reported on European Commission's new Single Market Emergency Instrument (SMEI) for handling supply-chain breakdowns. The Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager will present the same on 19 September. The new tool, which takes into account how Europe’s economy was affected by the COVID 19 pandemic will prohibit export bans amongst EU countries, monitor in-demand products and prioritize and demand stockpiling of certain orders and goods. Companies failing to comply will be fined up to 1.5 per cent of their average daily turnover. Moreover, failing to provide correct information can also incur a fine of up to EUR 300,000. However, the new tool has been criticized as it’s apprehended to be too interventionist, conceding too much power to the Commission. Nine EU member countries, like Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Slovenia have issued warnings to the Commission to not go ahead with the regulation, as it does to take into consideration some of their concerns. The European Trade Union Confederation also said that the draft also invalidates the worker’s right to strike. (Pietro Lombardi, “EU’s supply-chain plan criticized for overreaching,” POLITICO, 16 September 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Recurrence of Polio sparks fear in the West
On 13 September, POLITCO reported on the return of the poliovirus in the West. The virus has been detected in the sewage system in London. Local authorities have asked parents to get their children booster shots and vaccination clinics have been booked out in certain areas. The Health Commissioner of New York has declared and emergency and warned people to not take the issue lightly. These cases of polio are caused by vaccine-derived poliovirus and had so far been restricted to low-income countries. It occurs when oral vaccines are deposited in wastewater through which it is transmitted to people. While generally this helps in increasing passive immunity, if enough people are not vaccinated and the spread has a long duration, the virus can mutate back to a form which causes illness and paralysis. The director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, Andrew Pollard addresses the issue and said: “It’s a wake-up call for governments and other donors that polio is not restricted only to a few, distant, low-income countries, but a reminder that we are all in the same global fight against this virus.” (Ashleigh Furlong, “A rude awakening: The return of polio to the West,” POLITICO, 13 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 206 & 207
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground

Russia used Iran’s Shahed-136 delta wing drones against Ukraine in the ongoing war. The drones called Geranium 2, have two parts, one that finds the radar system, and the other that attacks artillery pieces. The drones compared with the US-made HIMARS and have helped revive Russia’s military capacity.
 
On 18 September, on the mass graves found in the Izyum district, the West criticized Russia’s action in Ukraine as war crimes. European Union’s foreign policy chief, Joseph Borrel said: “This inhuman behaviour by the Russian forces, in total disregard of international humanitarian law and the Geneva conventions, must stop immediately.” US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken and France’s President Emmanuel Macron also termed Russia’s actions as atrocities and said that it should take responsibility for the suffering of Ukraine. 
 
The action plan of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Special Operations Forces’ Information and Psychological Operations Department was published by a hacker named Beregini on Telegram. The plan was to undermine Russia and was discovered in 2014. The actions of Ukraine confirmed the authenticity of the plan. The goal was to isolate Russia from the rest of the world and create division between the regime and the people of Russia, which has been successful thus far.

On 18 September, the Ukraine’s Center for Anti-Misinformation reported that Russia was restricting the Crimean men from leaving the region as they test the military preparedness of the region. The decree was later removed from the official website. In the Kherson region, the Russians created their own “Novokakhovsky communal services”. They ordered the local citizens to pay for all communal services. Hackers conducted cyberattacks against the Department of Education and education institutions in Melitopol after it discovered that  children follow the Ukrainian curriculum rather than Russian.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

In a press conference with journalists, Defence Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said that till now, Russia had destroyed 293 aircraft, 155 helicopters, 1981 UAVs, 375 anti-aircraft missile systems, 5022 tanks, other armoured vehicles, 837 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles, 3397 field artillery guns and 5680 special military vehicles belonging to Ukriane.

On 18 September, Russia’s forces repelled an offensive attack by Ukraine’s armed forces in the Kherson region. The Russian troops resisted Ukraine’s 60th infantry and 57th Motorized Infantry Brigades, backed by six tanks. The Russian Air force also attacked Ukraine’s 28th Mechanized and 79th Airborne Assault Brigades with high-precision weapons.
 
On 18 September, on the US accusation over Russia’s using of WMD weapons in Ukraine, Russia responded saying: “In response to the use of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies.. in response to a conventional attack that threatens the very existence.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

The Czech Republic, which holds the Presidency of the EU, condemned the actions of Russia after hearing about the gravesite that contained hundreds of Ukrainian bodies that were discovered to have been tortured near the recently freed Izyum city. The Czech requested the EU to create an international tribune that makes Russia answerable for its war crimes. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated similar sentiments as the Czech Republic. The UK’s Defence Ministry reported that Russia had increased its attack on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine has been attempting to persuade the West and the UN to adopt a resolution that makes Russia provide reparation to it. Ukraine’s Deputy Justice Minister, Iryna Mudra, and First Lady, Olena Zelenska has been lobbying with the ministers in the Council of Europe, and also with Germany, France and USA regarding the issue. Previously, reparations had been backed by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia’s finance ministers.

On 17 September, Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that France’s state-owned nuclear energy company, EDF, would halt its export to Italy. However, France and EDF denied any claims about  stopping energy export to Italy due to its internal energy crisis. France also said it would reaffirm its commitment to energy export and reciprocate solidarity with its neighbours.

The G7 ambassadors discussed on reforming Ukraine’s judicial system and anti-corruption agenda under martial law. Ukraine’s Parliament’s speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuck, said that the Verkhovna Rada is working on a draft law reforming Constitutional Court and its anti-corruption agenda under martial law amidst the ongoing war. These reforms were included in the seven requirements placed by the Commission for Ukraine’s EU membership.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on the resumption of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and flow electricity from the national grid directly, after engineers restored one of the four major external power lines. The 750-kilovolt line is providing the plant with the electricity it requires to perform essential safety functions and for cooling the reactors.  The plant has been non-functional since 11 September 2022 and the six reactors in ZNPP are still in a cold shutdown. On the same day, Ukraine’s energy operator, Energoatom also announced that it had sent fuel supplies to ZNPP, along with and spare parts for the repair of the power lines. 

References
Yaroslav Trofimov and Dion Nissenbaum, “Russia’s Use of Iranian Kamikaze Drones Creates New Dangers for Ukrainian Troops,” WSJ, 17 September 2022
Center for Anti-Misinformation, “Center for Anti-Misinformation informs about the disinformation and manipulative campaigns taking place in the temporarily occupied territories,” Telegram, 18 September 2022
Outrage as Ukraine Finds Mass Grave Near Liberated Izyum,” Kyiv Post, 17 September 2022
Over 5,000 tanks, other armored vehicles destroyed in Russian operation - top brass,” TASS, 18 September 2022
Russian forces rebuff Ukrainian troops’ offensive in Kherson Region - top brass,” TASS, 18 September 2022
Leaked documents expose Ukrainian attempts to destabilize Russia and draw NATO into a full-scale war with Moscow,” RT, 17 September 2022
Ukraine war: Grave sites prompt calls for tribunal over Russian killings,” BBC, 18 September 2022
Patrick Wintour, “West wavers on Ukraine proposals to seize Russian assets as reparations,” The Guardian, 18 September 2022
France rejects claims it may halt power exports to Italy,” Daily Sabah, 17 September 2022
Update 103 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 17 September 2022
G7 envoys discuss Ukraine’s judiciary reform, anti-graft program with civil society leaders,” Ukrinform, 18 September 2022

 


17 September 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #309

War in Ukraine: Day 205

Flash flood kills 10 people in Italy; German Rosneft brought under Germany's control; The Commission adopts the European Media Act

Photo : Sergey Guneev, RIA Novosti/Kremlin.ru


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
SNCTA air traffic control union strike pushes French airlines to call off the flights
On 17 September, important airlines of France, Ryanir, EasyJet, EasyJet, Air France and British Airways announced the cancellation of flights upon the SNCTA air traffic control union strike. Upon dissatisfaction over wages, increasing cost-of living and recruitment, the union launched strike which brought thousands of passengers to halt from travelling. Ryanair operations director, Ryanair operations director said: “It is time that the European Union step in and protect overflights so that European passengers are not repeatedly held to ransom by a tiny French air traffic control union.” The French Aviation authority is expected to take help from European air travel regulator Eurocontrol to prevent the airline from using the its air space to ensure the proceedings of Queen’s ceremonial procession. (“French air traffic control strike affects thousands of passengers,” BBC, 16 September 2022)

GERMANY
Germany acquires a subsidiary of Rosneft to ensure gas supply
On 16 September, Germany took control of the Russian oil company Rosneft’s subsidiary following fears of supply disruption due to sanctions placed on Russia. German Rosneft is one of the largest oil processing companies in Germany. It refines the crude fuel that Germany gets from non-Russian sources. To ensure the future of German Rosneft and to address the energy supply security, the company is placed under the “trust administration” of the state regulator to ensure the future of German Rosneft and address the energy supply security. The government aims to take the MiRo refinery in Karlsrhue and the Bayernoil site in Vohburg under its control. (Charlie Cooper, “Germany takes over Rosneft subsidiary to secure fuel supplies,” POLITICO, 16 September 2022)

ITALY
Floods in Italy due to high temperatures and drought conditions
On 15 September, Italy experienced “torrential rain” which resulted in flooding of rivers and streams into the coastal towns near capital of Ancona. According to the report from the local, rescue workers have been searching and carrying out operations to secure those caught in the floods. Till now 10 are reported to be dead, 50 injured with hypothermia and 180 firefighters are present in the rescue operations. The cause of such extreme weather was found to be due to increasing temperatures and persisting drought conditions. (“Italy: Floods and rain kill at least 10 overnight – officials,” BBC, 16 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Europe and China impacted the most due to extreme temperatures reports BBC
On 17 September, BBC reported on the record of global drought condition in 2022. The prime question it placed was whether 2022 was the driest year so far. Drawing data from Europe, China, Africa, and West of the US, the scientists found that highest temperatures were recorded in Europe and China, while Africa was affected by dry conditions leading to increased starvation, and west of the US continues to experience low rainfall. The latest summer in Europe and the draught was recorded the “worst in 500 years.’ In China, the high temperatures have prolonged for more than two months beating the record since 1960’s, and reduction in rainfall by 60 per cent in the Yangtze River as per China's Meteorological Administration. (“China, Europe, US drought: Is 2022 the driest year recorded?,” BBC, 17 September 2022)

The EU adopts new rules for media freedom
On 16 September, the European Media Act, a new set of regulations to protect media freedom and pluralism in the EU, was adopted by the European Commission. The rules will free media from political interference in editorial decisions and protect it from surveillance. It also addresses the freedom and stable funding for public service media and transparency of media ownership. The sources are also protected under the act. The European Board for Media Services, a new independent body consisting of national media authorities, will also be created as a watchdog of European media freedom. (“European Media Freedom Act: Commission proposes rules to protect media pluralism and independence in the EU,” ec.europa,eu, 16 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 205
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground

On 16 September, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about alleged crimes conducted by Russia’s forces in the Izyum region. Referring to torture chambers and a mass burial site with around 440 graves, Zelenskyy compared it to Bucha, where during the initial stages of the invasion, war crimes had been recorded. The bodies in the graves show signs of abuse like broken bones and ropes tied around their necks.

On the same day, Zelenskyy met with the President of Finland, Sauli Niinisto. He thanked him for Finland’s support in the war for Ukraine and the two leaders also discussed the issue of granting visas for Russian citizens. Zelenskyy said that countries bordering Russia should consider a complete restriction of access for Russia as this issue was extremely important. 

Also on 16 September, the Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Ihor Zhovkva spoke on the telephone with Czech Republic’s Minister of European Affairs, Milulas Bek. The leaders referred to European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Ukraine on 15 September and also the steps Ukraine has to take for EU integration. Zhovkva said that in just three months, Ukraine had fulfilled about half of the recommendations made by the commission. He added that Ukraine expects full implementation of the same by November 2022. Zhovkva said: “We expect that the leadership of the Czech Presidency of the Council of the EU will influence the opening of a window of opportunity for the start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union in the near future.”

A report by the US-backed Conflict Observatory by Yale University’s School of Public Health and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory revealed that since the beginning of the war, Russia destroyed 6.24 million tonnes of food storage capacity in Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine’s actions in the war also destroyed around 2.5 million tonnes of storage capacity. Thus, in total, around 8.5 million of Ukraine’s 58 million tonne storage capacity has been invalidated, thus making it difficult for farmers to store their new harvests. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 September, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin after a meeting spoke about gas supplies by Gazprom to Turkey. The two leaders have agreed that Turkey will pay for 25 per cent of its gas supplies in rubles. Putin also mentioned that Russia was ready to increase gas deliveries to Turkey, if the agreements between the two states are upheld.

Commenting on Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive, Putin said that Russia was not in a hurry to bring an end to the war, and would continue as long as it does not meet its objectives. In this context, he mentioned that till now, Russia has only deployed volunteer soldiers to Ukraine. He also warned that if the situation were to continue in the same way, Russia would be forced to ramp up its military efforts in Ukraine, and make its response more “serious.” On the “Kyiv Security Compact,” Putin alleged that Ukraine and Russia had discussed on a set of security guarantees in March, and criticized Ukraine’s shift from the same. He added that Russia was willing to wait and see how the new draft unfolds, as Ukraine’s “position on almost every issue changes almost every day.”

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Putin addressed the meeting with the SCO Heads of State Council. He referred to the global energy and food crisis and blamed it on “systemic errors” in the leading economies of the World. He criticized the European Commission’s decision to lift the sanction for the purchase of Russian fertilizers meant only for EU member states and said that it was unfair to the developing and poorest countries. He called on the UN Secretary-General to remedy the decision to provide the world with access to Russian fertilizers. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 16 September, the parliamentary speakers of the G7 member states met in Berlin with the primary agenda of discussing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Chairman of Ukraine's parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk was invited as a guest to give a speech. He ascribed its recent successes on ground to the weapons received from the West and reiterated Ukraine’s request for more “modern” weapons. US House of Representatives speaker, Nancy Pelosi said that while high energy prices were a concern, it was a “small price to pay” to support Ukraine. She added that Ukrainians were risking their lives to not only defend Ukraine’s democracy but also the democracy of the rest of the world. President of Germany's Bundestag, Barbel Bas also reiterated Pelosi’s stance and mentioned that Putin was waging a war against all liberal democracies of the word. She said: “This is a fight that he will not win."
 
On 16 September, the Federal Council of Switzerland agreed to suspend its fast-track the visa agreement with Russia completely. However, Russians will still be able to apply for ordinary Swiss visas. The move is in line with the EU's decision to suspend facilitated visa applications from Russia in the context of the Ukraine war. In a media release, the government said that the suspension was to adhere to the broader EU visa policy, as otherwise Switzerland will have to deal with an increased number of visa applications from Russians looking to bypass EU decisions. The Government also confirmed that Switzerland will no longer be exchanging tax information with Russia on both automatic exchanges and spontaneous appeals for assistance.
 
In an interview to BBC Radio, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg commended Ukraine's armed forces for their counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. However, warned that the war was expected to stretch and adequate preparation should be taken for the same. Stoltenberg said, "… we need to understand that this is not the beginning of the end of the war, we need to be prepared for the long haul."
 
On 15 September, Norway’s opposition party leader, Rasmus Hansson said that the war in Ukraine was not a reason to raise the price of gas. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russian gas and oil, Norway has become the EU's largest source of gas. With the rising price of gas, Norway has made significant profits from the export of gas. As per official estimations, it is expected to earn EUR 94 billion from the petroleum industry, which is USD 65 billion more than 2021. However, Hansson, the former leader of the Norwegian Green Party alleged that it was “morally wrong” to profit from prices which are rising primarily due to war. He said: “We think Norway is being short-sighted and too selfish… We are getting a windfall profit which is very big, but the question is does that money belong to us…”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 16 September, on the sidelines of the SCO summit, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi told President Putin that it is “not an era of war.” Modi added that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue kept the international order functional. Addressing Modi’s comments, Putin said that he understands India’s concerns and stance regarding the Ukraine war and that Russia will “do everything to stop this as soon as possible.” However, Putin also added that the leadership in Ukraine has rejected the negotiation process and wants to achieve its goals by “military means.” 

On 15 September, an IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice said that the organization is contemplating providing USD 1.4 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine and are awaiting approval from the executive board. He said that IMF officials were conducting meetings with Ukraine’s officials and to consider a “potential full-fledged program.”

References
Russia repeats in Izium what it did in Bucha, world must react to it – address of President of Ukraine,” president..gov.ua, 16 September 2022
Vasilisa Stepanenko, “Ukrainian president: Burial site contains torture victims,” AP News, 16 September 2022
In less than three months, Ukraine fulfilled about half of the recommendations of the European Commission - Ihor Zhovkva,” president..gov.ua, 16 September 2022
Large Part of Ukraine Grain Storage Lost in War: report,” Kyiv Post, 16 September 2022
Meeting of the SCO Heads of State Council,” kremlin.ru, 16 September 2022
Putin clarifies Russia's main goal in Ukraine,” RT, 16 September 2022
Putin warns of more serious response in Ukraine,” RT, 16 September 2022
25% of Russian gas supplies to Turkey will be paid in rubles soon, Putin says,” TASS, 16 September 2022
Ukraine tops agenda of G7 parliamentary speakers summit in Berlin,” Deutsche Welle, 16 September 2022
Switzerland ends fast-track visas for Russian nationals,” swissinfo.ch, 16 September 2022
 “Ukrainian counter-attack effective, not end of war - NATO's Stoltenberg,” Reuters, 16 September 2022
“‘Selfish’ Norway accused of Ukraine war-profiteering,” POLITICO, 15 September 2022
Putin tells Modi he understands India's concerns over Ukraine conflict,” Reuters, 16 September 2022
Philip Pullella, “Pope says supplying weapons to Ukraine is morally acceptable for self defence,” Reuters, 16 September 2022
IMF plans in-person mission to start talks with Ukraine with support – spokesperson,” Reuters, 16 September 2022

 


16 September 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #308

Right-wing coalition win 2022 Sweden elections: Differences and issues | War in Ukraine: Day 204

Clash within the conservative camp in Italy; A new act on cybersecurity introduced in the EU; European Parliament calls out Hungary as 'electoral aristocracy'

Photo : AA/Swedish Election Authority


IN FOCUS
Sweden elections: Differences within right coalition and issues in Sweden
By Padmashree Anandhan 

On 11 September, under the election authority of Sweden elections to the Riksdag and municipal and regional councils was conducted. On 15 September, the vote count revealed the victory of the right-wing coalition with 176 seats out of 349 in the parliament, while Magdalena Andersson's (Social Democrats) centre-left coalition lost by margin with 173 seats. Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson resigned from her position and said: “I know that a lot of Swedes are concerned. I see your concern and I share it.” Upon the right-wing’s support to Moderate party leader, Ulf Kristersson will form the government. The Sweden Democrats leader, Jimmie Akesson said: “It is time to start rebuilding security, prosperity and cohesion. It’s time to put Sweden first.”

Election results
The final vote count of 2022 elections showed the largest share of votes being won by the Social Democrats with 31.68 per cent followed by Sweden Democrats with 21.27 per cent, pushing the Moderates to third place with 19.1 per cent. With the Liberal and Christian Democrats winning 4.25 per cent and 5.3 per cent, totalling to 49.92 per cent whereas, the left-wing coalition including Social Democrats, center and left parties closed 49.2 per cent. In the 2018 and 2014 elections the competition has prevailed only between the Social Democrats and the Moderates, where the Sweden slowly gained ground from 12.86 per cent in 2014, 17.53 per cent in 2018 to crossing 20 per cent in 2022.  

The differences within right-wing coalition
Since the existence of the Sweden Democrats, the Moderates, liberal and Christian parties have been in conflict with its policies. Although the Sweden Democrats hold the majority votes, their influence in fulfilling its policy agenda with the differed interest of long-standing Moderate party and Liberal party would be a challenge. Especially in terms of dealing crimes, education system, deportation of immigrants, welfare benefits, and energy needs. The balancing act will dwell upon the Moderates to negotiate the differences and bring consensus. With the removal of Social Democrats, and replacing of a four-party left-wing coalition, Sweden’s political landscape is about to take the roller-coaster.

Issues within Sweden
The steady rise of right was possible over the years 2014 to 2022 due to many reasons.
First, imbalanced approach towards migrants. The Social Democrats Party promised to keep the migrants under check, to fasten the deportation process of those rejected application, and assured to thin down the count of “non-Nordic” immigrants from Somalia, China and Italy. Although the immigration policy was not a major issue until 2015 migration crisis from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan fear began to emerge amongst the Swedes over integration. The problem is real as Sweden’s one-fifth of the 10 million people were born from the Syria, Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Second, law and order. Sweden which is known for its happiness index, high standard of living, women rights and liberal laws in accepting asylum seekers, when it comes to controlling gun laws it lags behind. According to The New York Times report, the shootings increased to 273 during 2010 to 2018, and stands at 379 in 2020. Despite government’s strict control over gun licensing which is given only to hunting rifles, the rise in illegal trade and smuggling has led to the stocking of firearms from Turkey, Balkan, and eastern European countries. This has led to the fall of trust amongst the people who had lived for decades.

Third, the inflation and energy crisis. The rising energy prices, falter in the welfare benefits, taxes on high earning groups and Sweden’s increased military expenditure upon Ukraine war is also a major problem which the current government has to address.

References
Elections to the Riksdag - Final election results - The Kingdom,” resultat.val.se, 14 September 2022
Christina Anderson and Isabella Kwai, “In Dramatic Shift, Right-Wing Bloc Wins Slim Majority in Sweden,” nytimes, 14 September 2022
Amanda Taub, “Sweden’s Far Right Just Made History. Is It the Country’s Future?,” nytimes, 14 September 2022
Swedish election: The astonishing rise of the right-wing Sweden Democrats,” Deutsche Welle, 15 September 2022
Sweden election: PM Magdalena Andersson resigns after right-wing victory,” Deutsche Welle, 15 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

ITALY
Meloni and Salvini clash over energy crisis measures 
On 15 September, the rift within the right-wing coalition (conservative alliance) between Giorgia Meloni of the Brothers of Italy Party and Matteo Salvini of the Lega Nord Party became apparent over energy crisis debate. While Salvini proposed on borrowing of EUR 30 billion to help Italy’s low-income households and businesses struck from soaring energy prices. Meloni argued that Italy being the second most debt-ridden country in the Eurozone and further borrowing would put the next generation under financial stress. She also said that the energy crisis had triggered temporary market speculation and would remain temporary pass over. The support for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party due to her straight forwardness and her stand to not join Prime Minister Mario Dragi. (Crispian Balmer, “Italy's Meloni clashes with ally Salvini over energy crisis,” Reuters, 15 September 2022)
 
REGIONAL
EU proposed new Cyber Resilience Act in the annual address
On 15 September, the European Commission shared a new proposal for a Cyber Resilience Act to strengthen and protect consumers and businesses from products with inadequate security features. The cyber resilience act will be the first introduced in the EU legislation. It will ensure all digital products, both hardware and software, have mandatory cybersecurity requirements that should be fulfilled throughout their entire life circle. Making digital products more secure and beneficial to consumers across the EU is also one of the act's objectives. The act also makes the manufacturers and sellers of digital products more responsible, providing security assistance, and patching up any identified vulnerabilities with software updates. Vice President Margaritis Schinas presented the Cyber Resilience Act, and Commissioner Thierry Breton introduced the Cyber Resilience Act in the morning press conference. (“State of the Union: new EU cybersecurity rules to strengthen the security of computer software and hardware,” ec.europa.eu, 15 September 2022)
 
The EU’s new rules allow recycled plastic to be used for food packaging 
On 15 September, new rules were taken up by the Commission regarding the usage of recycled plastic in the packaging of foods across the EU. It aims to increase overall sustainability in the food sector and to fulfil the objectives of the “Circular Economy Action Plan.” It has deemed the usage of recycled plastic in food packaging as safe. The new rules will also help the EU to reduce its plastic waste and boost the market for recycled plastic. More sustainability towards food packaging leads to protecting both environment and people will also be possible with the new rules. The recycling industry can also find new ways to make recycled plastic safer for food packaging. (“Circular economy: new EU rules to allow use of recycled plastics in food packaging,” ec.europa.eu, 15 September 2022)
 
Latvia accused for poor sustainable resource management
On 15 September, European Commission criticized Latvia for its incapability of utilizing the fund offered by the EU to solve environmental problems. Latvia was unable to implement sustainable management of the environment and resources. Mainly in terms of biodiversity management, circular economy, productivity of resources and the quality of water. The governments postponed the task of sustainable resource management several times and the inability to use the Latvian Fund for Nature and funds provided by the EU. While it had good progress only in waste management. (“European Commission criticizes Latvia for inability to implement sustainable management of resources, improve situation with natural habitats,” The Baltic Times, 15 September 2022)
 
“Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy,” says European Parliament
On 15 September, Hungary was deemed an “electoral autocracy” by the Members of the European Parliament. It condemned the country for sliding into authoritarianism under the rule of the right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The MEPs said that Hungary has taken up a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy rather than being complete democracy. The European lawmakers demanded the European Commission withhold funds to Hungary until it complies with the rules of the EU, implement the judgements given by the ECHR and ECJ, and to exclude from EU’s funding programmes. The key problems of Hungary pointed by the members were its constitutional and electoral system, its control over independence of the judiciary, corruption within the State, lack of freedom to its citizens and restriction of media. (Alex Berry, “European Parliament slams Hungary as an 'electoral autocracy',” Deutsche Welle 15 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 204
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 14 September, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar released a statement about the counteroffensive by Ukraine in Kharkiv. She said that the frontline is around 2500 kilometers and active fighting is taking place within 1300 kilometers. According to Maliar, Ukraine needs more "time, strength and patience" for more success in the region. She reaffirmed Ukraine has a long road ahead of a complete win.

On 15 September, Ukrinform reported about a press release by the human resource website grc.ua about the condition of Ukraine's job market. The study revealed that 40 per cent of Ukraine’s pre-war workforce had lost their jobs and only 23 per cent of employees are still receiving full wages for their work. Most of these job losses were because of termination of the company due to the war, some because of their positions being cut and some because the company relocated to a different region.

on 14 February, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conducted a work trip to the Kharkiv region and held a meeting on energy security issues in the region. According to the briefing presented to him by the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Head, Oleg Syniehubov 16 communities in the region had been completely de-occupied and 7 were partially de-occupied. While before Ukraine's recent counteroffensive, 32 per cent of Kharkiv region was under Russia's control, now only 6 per cent still remains so. Zelenskyy emphasized the need to restore electricity and conduct swift restoration work in the region. On the same issue, the Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko noted that the pace of repair will depend on how quickly the territories can be demined.

Ukraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska attended Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union Address at the European Commission. She wrote about the report released by the EU outlining their goals for the coming year and reiterated EU’s support for Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. She thanked Von der Leyen for the invitation; saying that she was honoured to represent Ukraine in the meeting which has set a precedent by inviting a foreign guest for the first time. The two leaders discussed issues like problems faced by Ukrainians abroad, the psychological rehabilitation and treatment of Ukraine’s service personnel and civilians and the education for Ukraine’s youth. She  highlighted how Von der Leyen has commissioned EUR 100 million for the reconstruction of 74 Ukrainian schools as a part of the Fast Recovery Plan.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 September, RIA Novosti reported on President Vladimir Putin’s statement on China’s stance regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Speaking on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Putin mentioned that China’s “balanced position” was greatly appreciated by Russia. He added that Russia understood the various questions and concerns regarding the same and will address them during the course of the summit.

On the same day, TASS reported on Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova’s comments about “filtration measures” carried on in Ukraine. She alleged that these measures, taken in the de-occupied territories, indicated the killing of civilians as done by Ukraine’s Special Services. She said: These people get killed… This is not a matter of doing some kind of justice. It’s absolute lawlessness, which in principle, does not fit in with any norms of any humanitarian law. I emphasize once again that thousands of people, peaceful civilians, are forced through these filtration measures.”

Zakharova spoke about Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to the UN General Assembly. She mentioned that Lavrov will address a session at the UNGA. He and his delegation plans to hold around 20 bilateral meetings on the sidelines. Zakharova added that in the upcoming meetings Russia will reaffirm their compliance with the UN Charter and related principles of the equality of sovereigns and non-interference in domestic affairs. Russia will be defending their stance regarding the current conflict and look to increase the UN’s role as a coordinator of International Affairs.

On 15 September, Gazprom released a report on the production and supply of gas from 01 January to 15 September as a Telegram post. Gazprom recorded that it had produced only 300.8 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022, which was 15.9 per cent less than in 2021. The data collected discussed the gas export to Europe, especially Germany and Ukraine. It talked about the Siberia gas pipeline connected to China. China is receiving a steady gas supply from Russia under the long-term bilateral contract between Gazprom and CNPC. The data showed that there had been a decrease in the production and supply of gas in 2022 when compared to 2021.

On 14 September, Russia's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said that if Ukraine wants to guarantee its own security, it should work towards eliminating the risks it poses to Russia's security. Referring to the Kyiv Security Compact, Peskov said that Russia will take steps if the security guarantees are signed. Speaking about how only the leadership in Ukraine can ensure its security, he said: "The leadership of that country should only take actions that, accordingly, will eliminate the threat to Russia. Kiev knows perfectly well what these actions should be.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 15 September, the European Investment Bank sent its first tranche of the EUR 1.59 billion package from the Ukraine Solidarity Urgent Response. The package was approved in July 2022 and the first tranche is of EUR 500 million. The aid, which is supported by an EU guarantee and coordinated by the European Commission, will prioritize short-term financing needs, ensure urgent repairs of damaged infrastructure like roads, bridges and railway complexes.

On 15 September, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published an interview with Germany’s Finance Minister Annalena Baerbock. She said that Chancellor Olaf Scholz should take a stand on whether to supply Ukraine with more weapons, given its request for German Leopard-2 tanks. She mentioned that such a decision could not be taken by the Chancellor alone, but would be decided by Germany's three-party ruling coalition. Germany's Economy Minister, Robert Habeck commented on the issue and said Germany is expected to send more of the "right weapons" to Ukraine soon.

On 14 September, both Democratic and the Republican Party senators in the US introduced a new legislation. The new law, if approved will label Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. One of the sponsors of the bill, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, cited Russia's invasion of Ukraine and continued aggression as a reason for the designation. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that such a designation would send a strong signal to US allies to support Ukraine too. However, previously President Joe Biden had denounced the possibility of labelling Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Russia too maintains that diplomatic ties would be significantly damages and could also be broken if it is added to the list of State Sponsor of Terrorism, which currently includes Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Syria.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 15 September, World Bank’s Managing Director of Operations, Axel van Trotsenburg said that the World Bank is prepared to grant up to USD 30 billion to combat the global food shortage. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was blamed for catalyzing the crisis. He expressed solidarity with Ukraine, referring to the disbursement of around USD 10 billion of the USD 13 billion financial aid pledged by the World Bank.

On 14 September, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres spoke to Putin about the UN's efforts for the smooth implementation of the Black Sea grain deal. He mentioned how the Secretariat and other UN agencies were working to remove all obstacles to ensure the supply for grains and fertilizers to the international market. The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was also discussed and Putin indicated that Russia was prepared to cooperate with the assessment of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) delegation.

References
40% of Ukrainians Lost Jobs Due to War – Study,” Kyiv Post, 15 September 2022
Ukraine is on the agenda of the European Union,” Telegram, 14 September 2022
President held a meeting on the energy security of the Kharkiv region,” president.gov.ua, 14 September 2022
Defense Ministry’s update on liberated areas of Kharkiv region: 388 settlements de-occupied,” Ukrinform, 14 September 2022
Putin assessed China's position on Ukraine,” LENTA.RU, 15 September 2022
Kiev’s "filtration measures" imply killings of people - Russian MFA,” TASS, 15 September 2022
Lavrov to speak at UN General Assembly session, hold up to 20 meetings,” TASS, 15 September 2022
Gazprom, “Production and supply of gas: results of eight and a half months,” Telegram, 15 September 2022
Removing threat to Russia is ‘the best security guarantee’ for Ukraine, says Kremlin,” TASS, 14 September 2022
European Investment Bank, in cooperation with the Commission, starts disbursing EUR 1.59 billion package to aid Ukraine,” ec.europa.eu, 15 September 2022
German FM urges swift decision on tank delivery to Ukraine,” AP News, 16 September 2022
Patricia Zengerle, “U.S. senators introduce bill to designate Russia state sponsor of terrorism,” Reuters, 15 September 2022
Daria Sito-sucic, “World Bank earmarks $30 bln to help offset food shortages worsened by war in Ukraine,” Reuters, 15 September 2022
Telephone conversation with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres,” kremlin.ru, 14 September 2022


15 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #307

Ursula's State of the Union address: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 203

Right-wing dominates Sweden’s Election; The EU’s new forced labour policy proposal were found fault with; Estonia unable to meet domestics energy demand

Photo : Yves Herman/Reuters


IN FOCUS
Ursula's State of the Union address: Focus on Ukraine, energy, and economy
By Padmashree Anandhan 

What happened?
On 14 September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the “State of the Union” address briefed on the Commission’s plan for the upcoming year. Which were formed based on the recommendations made by the citizens in the Conference on the Future of Europe. In her address she said: “Democratic institutions must constantly gain and regain the citizens’ trust. We must live up to the new challenges that history always puts before us. Just like Europeans did when millions of Ukrainians came knocking on their door. This is Europe at its best. A Union of determination and solidarity.”

The major plans included, EU’s continued support to Ukraine by integrating into the “EU’s single market.” Protective measures for Europeans to deal the energy crisis, reducing EU’s dependency over Russian energy, increasing renewable energy investments such as hydrogen and EU’s stance on democracy and rule of law.

Three key takeaways
First, solidarity for Ukraine. Ursula emphasised on EU’s solidarity for Ukraine and announced EU’s future initiative to strengthen its domestic and economic scenario. Outlining the support given, starting from the financial aid of EUR 19 billion, education to Ukrainian children, removal of import duties, consistency in imposing sanctions, to connecting of Ukraine’s electricity grid. She announced EU’s plans to merge Ukraine’s into EU’s single market, inclusion into free roaming, and EUR 100 million to reconstruct the damaged schools.

Second, recovery measures for Europe’s energy crisis. The European Commission brought in measures such as REPowerEU Plan, setting minimum gas storage limits, investments in offshore wind power, green hydrogen, solar in Denmark, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Sicily and “demand reduction targets,” to address the electricity shortage, Russia’s gas supply cut, increasing energy prices. In the State of the Union 2022, the Commission proposed measures, first, to reduce the electricity demand by 10 per cent to bring down the prices to five per cent. Second, to impose a temporary revenue cap of EUR180/MWh on inframarginal electricity producers, where those who produce electricity at lower cost will not charge more. For example, production of electricity from renewables, nuclear, and lignite. According to the European Commission: “These inframarginal producers have been making exceptional revenues, with relatively stable operational costs, as expensive gas power plants have driven up the wholesale electricity price they receive.” Third, a temporary unified contribution from the profits of the oil, gas, coal and refinery sectors. The rule applies only to those firms which has seen 20 per cent increase in their average profits in last three years. Such excess profits will be collected by the member states and later distributed to energy consumers, “vulnerable households, hard-hit companies, and energy-intensive industries.” Overall, the European Commission aims to raise EUR 140 billion as a backup to deal the energy crisis.

Third, economic recovery plan. the NextGenerationEU which assures sustenance of investments, employment and growth. It has been boosting investment in digital, sustainability, net-zero economy but still lacks to focus on higher public debt. The European Commission plans to disclose new measure for economic governance to bring more flexibility in debt reduction, to boost confidence in financial markets and to ensure spontaneous sync between stability and growth. As a way to boost the economy, the Commission plans to boost through lifting its business, workforce and accessibility to raw materials to meet the industry needs. It proposed “SME Relief Package,” which will contain a single set of tax regulation for all businesses in Europe called as “BEFIT.” To deter the growing unemployment rate, the Commission plans to making 2023 as “European Year of Education,” to speed up the qualification and recognition process in Europe. This is to close the gap between the unemployment and rising vacancies.

References
Charting the course for the year ahead,” state-of-the-union.ec.europa.eu, 14 September 2022
2022 State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen,” ec.europa.eu, 14 September 2022
Energy prices: Commission proposes emergency market intervention to reduce bills for Europeans,” ec.europa.eu, 14 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee and Sai Pranav

ESTONIA
Estonia’s energy production incapable of meeting domestic demand, says Eesti Energia
On 13 September, Estonia’s state-owned energy company Eesti Energia said that during peak hours, Estonia is incapable of producing enough electricity to meet its domestic demands. This contradicts electricity and gas system operator, Elering’s previous statement about how Estonia can cover its own needs. The Deputy Chancellor for energy at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications had also previously guaranteed that Estonia can take care of its own energy requirements. Currently, Estonia needs approximately 1600 megawatts of energy, while its production capacity is 1700 megawatts. The chairman of Eesti Energia, Andres Vainola said that even if Estonia’s total production is greater than its consumption, all stations producing at maximum capacity is unrealistic. However, Vainola also mentioned that this shortage may not be a major concern for the country as they remain connected to the Nordic electricity market. (“Eesti Energia: Estonia cannot produce enough electricity during peak hours,” ERR, 14 September 2022)

ITALY
Giorgia Meloni to become the largest party in the upcoming elections 
On 14 September, France24 reported that Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni is set to become Italy's first female Prime Minister in the coming elections. In a recent poll by pollsters, Meloni was found to be in the lead of two other right-wing contenders, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi. She is said to be the favourite among all other candidates. Unlike the other two right-wing leaders, she appreciated her steadfast decision not to join Mario Draghi’s centre-left coalition. Right-wing in Italy is the most likely to win compared to the broken centre-left. (Benjamin Dodman, “‘We’ve tried them all, except Meloni’: Far-right leader tipped to become Italy’s first female PM,” France24, 14 September 2022)

LATVIA
Latvia installs border-fence with Belarus to prevent illegal crossings
On 14 September, the State Real Estate of Latvia announced the border fence being constructed on the Latvia-Belarus border to prevent the illegal border crossing. Till now, five kilometers of the fence has been erected and construction work in 28.1 kilometers of the 57 kilometers long deforested border has been completed. It is expected that as the deforested areas increase, the rate of building the fence will also increase to up to one kilometer per day. Additionally, four bridges have also been built over several shared rivers that run along the border and the technical specifications for the third phase called Daugava is being developed. (“Five kilometers of fence constructed on Latvia-Belarus border,” eng.lsm.lv, 14 September 2022)
 
SPAIN
Majority vote against creating windfall taxes on energy firms
On 13 September, Spain’s People’s Party, along with the Vox and Ciudadanos, voted in Congress against levying windfall taxes after the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, announced that all EU countries must collect taxes from profiting energy companies and looking after the needs of low-income households with the same money. The left agreed with von der Leyen’s statement, whereas the People’s Party disagreed with her saying that it doubts the funds would go to the needy. The PP is against the idea of filling the pockets of Spain’s President Pedro Sanchez. Sanchez responded that the tax would only be levied on the large companies and said, “We govern for the majority, and when you did, you put all the institutions at the service of a powerful minority,”. The Spanish Congress is against creating new taxes and will follow the Iberian exception to meet the energy crisis. (Xose Hermida, “The European right amends the plan to the Feijóo PP for the tax on energy,” El Pais, 14 September 2022)
 
SWEDEN
Ulf Kristersson to become Sweden’s next Prime Minister
On 14 September, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson accepted her party’s defeat in the recent general election. The coalition of the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals collectively won 176 out of 349 parliament seats, and the centre-left Social Democrats won 173 seats, according to the latest count from the election authority. Ulf Kristersson, head of the Moderates, said that he would begin creating a new cabinet as the victory of the right alliance seemed inevitable. The rise of far-right Sweden Democrats worries Prime Minister Andersson as their anti-immigration policy might change Sweden’s welcoming attitude. The small party of Kristersson will find difficulties in creating a cabinet or passing laws as there are rifts between the Sweden Democrats and Liberals. The final results of the election will be announced in the coming days, but they will not significantly impact the victory of the right. (Simon Johnson and Anna Ringstrom, “Swedish right prepares for power as PM accepts election defeat,” Reuters, 15 September 2022)

TURKEY
Opposition parties create coalition amidst search for charismatic leader
On 14 September, Deutsche Welle reported on the Turkey’s opposition forming a successful coalition ahead of the 2023 Presidential elections. The name of alliance, translates to "Table of Six" and consists of six political parties- Republican People's Party (CHP), the nationalist Good Party, the conservative Islamist Felicity Party, the Future Party, the Democracy and Progress Party and the Democrat Party. The coalition will aim to challenge the dominance of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AKP) Party and to reverse the state’s presidential system, back to a parliamentary system.  After the coalition, the Table of Six are the second-largest opposition in the country. CHP’s head, Kemal Kilicdaroglu and two of CHP’s winning mayors, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas are being nominated as the presidential candidates. However, against the wide popularity of Erdogan, the charisma and influence of these leaders are not enough to shift the electoral mandate. ( Burak Ünveren, “ Turkey's opposition desperately seeks an electable leader,” Deutsche Welle, 14 September 2022)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
The General Court fines Google EUR 4.125 billion for violating antitrust laws
On 14 September, the General Court in Luxembourg ruled against google for the forceful and unlawful imposition of their software in Android. Google was slammed with an antitrust violation by the European Commission for dominating android devices and illegally restricting competition in the market. It was asked to pay a fine of EUR 4.125 billion by the General Court for the violation. The Commission imposed EUR 4.34 billion fine on Google in 2018, which the General Court reduced. Google wants to challenge the General Court’s rulings. (“Google: EU court confirms record €4 billion antitrust fine,” Deutsche Welle, 14 September 2022) 
 
REGIONAL
The EU’s leaked policy on forced labour receives criticisms 
On 14 September, a new policy proposal was leaked on banning forced labour in the EU. The policy focuses on finding proof of the existence of forced labour and thereby prohibits the goods resulting from the labour. Experts have found that the policy has a major flaw with the ban on goods involving forced labour in the market. Goods are banned only after the existence of forced labour is established with enough proof and not when they are suspected. The EU wants a high standard of evidence which makes banning a suspected firm that practices forced labour very difficult. (Sonya Angelica 0Diehn, “EU ban too feeble to fight forced labor, groups say,” Deutsche Welle, 14 September 2022)
 
France to look into the case of two women who joined IS 
On 14 September, the European Court of Human Rights asked France’s government to reconsider the case of the entry of two women who had joined the Islamic State (IS) in Syria on security grounds. France had denied access to the two women returning to France from Syria. The ECHR told France to view their case unbiased and allow them to enter the country. The French court, which ruled against the two women, said that the crimes they had committed while being a part of IS should be taken care of by the local authorities. The families of the two women had taken to court, demanding the French government should allow them entry as the IS is dissolved now. (Matt Murphy, “France must reconsider ban on IS members' return,” BBC, 14 September 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
The West raised concerns over traces of Uranium found in Iran
On 14 September, The US, The UK, France and Germany demanded Iran explain the existence of traces of Uranium in three undeclared sites in the Board of Governors quarterly meeting of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. The West asked IAEA to act immediately on Iran’s possession of Uranium. They made a joint statement with the support of 23 out of 35, asking Iran to fulfil its legal responsibility and adhere to IAEA’s guidelines. After clearing western sanctions, the incident had put a dent in Iran’s nuclear revival talks. (“Two-thirds of IAEA board backs Western statement pressuring Iran,” Reuters, 15 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 203
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 13 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Izyum in Kharkiv region. He raised Ukraine’s flag and congratulated the soldiers. The Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar and commanders of forces who captured Izyum back took part in the ceremony. Referring to other occupied territories, he said that Ukraine will aim to regain control over all the temporarily occupied territories, including Crimea. He recalled the people in Crimea as Ukraine’s own, called Russia’s 2014 occupation a “terrible tragedy” and promised to free the region.
 
On 14 September, the Ukraine's Armed Forces General Staff said that 5000 servicemen from the Ukrainian military had completed their training in the UK. The training was provided by instructors from Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Ukraine and the UK. The General Staff said that basic military knowledge, skills, engineering, live-fire, psychological and tactical training, running basic offensive and defensive missions and knowledge about tactical medicine remained the key aspects of the training. The combined military training was given under the program launched by British government called Operation INTERFLEX. The operation is expected to expand in terms of training course, intake capacity and the duration.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 14 September, Russia’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov spoke on the publication of the Kyiv Security Compact in collaboration with former NATO chief, Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Peskov said that the document made it more important for Russia to carry on its “special military operation,” as it further asks for security guarantee from the US and its allies. Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova suggested that as per the terms of the Compact, EU countries will “end up hellishly enslaved.” According to her the expensive sponsorship of Ukraine’s war efforts will affect their economies, making it difficult for them to recover in the long-term.

On 13 September, Peskov reiterated President Vladimir Putin’s earlier comments on how the unipolar world order will become obsolete and a new world order will be established. He addressed Russia’s growing friendship with China and said that both the states agree that a “new reality” will be established, instead of a unipolar world. 
 
On the same day, the Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin addressed the parliament said that Ukraine is pushing the world to the “brink of a nuclear catastrophe” by their continuous attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). He also mentioned how unlike the West, Russia is concerned about preventing a disaster at the plant, which can cause irreversible damage to Ukraine and other European NATO countries. According to Volodin, the UK and the US should speak up about the possible threat and take action against the same. On the same issues, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission, headed by Director-General Rafael Grossi said that both Ukraine and Russia were “interested” in a ceasefire and establishing a security zone around ZNPP.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her annual State of the Union speech, which outlines the main political priorities of the EU in the coming year. Von der Leyen reiterated the EU’s support for Ukraine’s war efforts and said that international sanctions imposed on Russia would be continued. She highlighted the EU's need to de-couple from Russian energy and also reduce EU’s dependence on fossil fuels. 

On 13 September, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz in phone call with President Vladimir Putin urged to withdraw his troops from Ukraine given the widespread military losses and far-reaching consequences of the war. He appealed for the treatment of the prisoners of war as per the Geneva Conventions, for cessation of attacks around the ZNPP and for better implementation of the Black Sea grain deal.

On 13 September, Reuters reported on US’s grant on visas to Russia’s foreign minister and his delegation to attend the upcoming UN annual gathering of world leaders. However, applications for 56 visas, submitted by Russia, only 24 stand approved. Lavrov’s flight crew were amongst the ones who have not received visas; thus, Lavrov and his delegation might avail commercial airlines to reach New York.

A Senior Research Associate at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, Hanna Notte spoke about how Azerbaijan is using Russia’s preoccupation with the invasion of Ukraine to provoke conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. She said that testing how much a conflict can be escalated, while Russia dedicates its military diplomatic and political bandwidth to Ukraine, is in line with the strategy generally adopted by Azerbaijan. 

On 13 September, Defence Minister of Denmark, Morten Bodskov in his visit to Kyiv spoke to the Danish news agency Ritzau. He said that Ukraine’s soldiers will also receive training in Denmark. Similar to the UK’s INTERFLEX programme, Denmark will be training inexperienced military recruits. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On the same day, the International Organization of Migration (IOM) Director General António Vitorino met Zelenskyy in Kyiv. In the statement released after his meeting, he spoke about how “deeply affected” he was by the unimaginable conditions in Ukraine as more than 5700 civilian deaths have been recorded and over 8200 people have been grievously injured. The leaders discussed the ways in which the IOM could provide humanitarian assistance, “support sustainable livelihoods” and “promote community stabilization.” Vitorino also applauded the on-ground workers of coordinating the IOM efforts in Ukraine.

On 14 September, ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting is scheduled to be held between 15-16 September, Russia’s presidential aide, Yuri Ushakov addressed the issue of trade with India. He reiterated Indian Ambassador to Moscow Pavan Kapoor’s earlier statement about growing India-Russia trade. Ushakov said: “Our relations are actively developing, the trade has also increased significantly with supplies of Russian oil, coal and fertilizers increasing.” He mentioned that the trade turnover between the two states have increased by 120 per cent in 2022. India and Russia are currently deliberating on approving each other’s interbank systems and Russia’s Mir and India’s RuPay payment cards.

On the same day, Financial Times reported on how the UN is attempting to pressurize Russia into resuming their ammonia exports through Ukraine. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a pipeline from Russia’s Volga region pumped ammonia to Odessa port in Ukraine. The UN official in charge of the task force, Rebeca Grynspan said that they are trying for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a suitable deal. She said: “Talks are moving in the right direction and every effort is being made by all parties at every level to ensure a positive outcome.” The talks are being conducted to ease the fertilizer prices as ammonia is a major ingredient in nitrate fertilisers.

References
Zelensky raises Ukrainian flag in liberated Izium,” Ukrinform, 14 September 2022
Almost 5,000 Ukrainian recruits complete training in Britain,” Ukrinform, 14 September 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: After the return of Ukraine to Crimea, life will return there as to the Kharkiv region,” president.gov.ua, 14 September 2022
The Kremlin commented on the publication of the Kiev project of "security guarantees," TASS, 14 September 2022
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova,” TASS, 14 September 2022
Russia and China agree over ‘new reality’ – Kremlin,” RT, 13 September 2022
Ukraine has put world on brink of ‘nuclear catastrophe’ – Moscow,” RT, 13 September 2022
2022 State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen,” ec.europa.eu, 14 September 2022
IOM Chief Statement Following Meeting with President Zelenskyy and Visit to Ukraine,” ion.int, 14 September 2022
Hans von der Burchard, “Scholz tells Putin to withdraw as Germany faces calls to send Ukraine tanks,” POLITICO, 13 September 2022
Michelle Nichols, “U.S. allows Russia's Lavrov to travel to United Nations,” Reuters, 13 September 2022
Mikhail Bushuev, “Azerbaijan has used Russia's weakness in Ukraine, expert says,” Deutsche Welle, 14 September 2022
Copenhagen To Train Ukrainian Soldiers In Denmark,” BARRON’S, 13 September 2022
Russia-India trade more than doubles – Kremlin,” RT, 14 September 2022
Laura Pitel and Henry Foy, “UN presses Kyiv and Moscow to agree fertiliser deal in Black Sea,” Financial Times, 13 September 2022


14 September 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #306

War in Ukraine: Day 202

Jean-Luc Godard passes away at 91; France deliberates on euthanasia; Hungary’s stricter abortion laws; Namibia’s opposition demands renegotiation of genocide deal with Germany

Photo : Reuters/The Washington Post


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee


FRANCE
France’s influential director in 1950’s Jean-Luc Goddard passes away
On 13 September, one of the world’s most iconic directors, Jean-Luc Godard, passed away at 91. He was a cinematographer, against the tradition of formulaic storytelling. Starting his career as a movie critic, Godard started directing movies in 1954 with “Operation Concrete” His movie, “Breathless” rejected conventional styles of narration, using frequent jump-cuts that mixed philosophical discussions with action scenes. His work was uncompromised to left-wing political views and has influenced some of global cinema’s greatest directors like Quentin Tarantino, Bernardo Bertolucci, Brian De Palma, and Jonathan Demme. Godard, passed away in Switzerland, where he was born and brought up. The medical report released in a statement by his family said that the director had “multiple invalidating pathologies” and had died by assisted suicide, which is legal in Switzerland. The president of the Swiss Cinematheque, Frederic Maire said: “There’s a bit of Godard in nearly all films today,” while Cannes Film Festival Director, Thierry Fremaux said: “…sad, sad — immensely so.” France’s president Emmanuel Macron also expressed his condolence, saying: “We have lost a national treasure, the eye of a genius.” (Jamey Keaton and Thomas Adamson, “Iconic French New Wave director Jean-Luc Godard dead at 91,” AP News, 13 September 2022) 

National debate launched to legalize euthanasia
On 13 September, French President Emmanuel Macron launched a national debate on the possibility of legalising euthanasia. The debate to broaden end-of-life options comes after the state's National Consultative Ethics Committee (CCNE) ruled that "active assistance in dying" could apply to France if done under certified guidelines. A body of citizens will now be commissioned to coordinate with health care workers; local debates will be organized in several French regions. The government will also hold parallel discussions with parliamentarians from all political parties to find the broadest consensus, it will deliver its findings in March 2023, leading to a vote or a referendum in the parliament. While euthanasia is legal in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, and Switzerland, under certain conditions. As per a law passed in 2016 in France, doctors are allowed to keep terminally ill patients sedated but assisted death is not yet legal. (“France launches national debate on legalising euthanasia,” Euronews, 13 September 2022)

HUNGARY
Hungary introduces stricter abortion laws
On 13 September, Hungary's government tightened its abortion rules. The new rules will require pregnant women to listen to the fetus’s heartbeat or other valid signs of life before having an abortion, thus making the process of pursuing a termination more bureaucratic. Doctors will have also to submit a report confirming that this has been done before issuing abortions. The new rules will come into effect from 15 September. Hungary’s government has blamed the low birth rates in the country on increased rates of women in higher education. The stricter abortion law is thus in keeping with the promotion of traditional family values as forwarded by Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s right-wing government. (Malu Cursino, “Hungary decrees tighter abortion rules,” BBC, 13 September 2022)

REGIONAL
WHO says 17 million people in Europe affected by long COVID
On 13 September, WHO’s new study finds that at least 17 million people in Europe were affected by “long COVID” in the first two years of the pandemic. The research was conducted by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine. It pertains to WHO’s Europe region, spanning 53 states and with a population of approximately 900 million people. The study found that around 10-20 per cent of all COVID-19 cases resulted in effects that lingered for at least three months with symptoms ranging from brain fog and breathlessness. It also found that women are twice more likely to be affected by “long COVID” than men. WHO announced an official partnership with a network called “long COVID” Europe that comprises 19 patient associations in member states across the European region. The two organizations will be addressing three goals. First, recognition of “long COVID” and knowledge sharing to equip all services. Second, to reduce the gap in research and reporting and third, rehabilitation based on evidence and effectiveness. (“At least 17 million people in the WHO European Region experienced long COVID in the first two years of the pandemic; millions may have to live with it for years to come,” who.int, 13 September 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Namibia demands renegotiated genocide deal with Germany
On 13 September, Namibia’s Ovaherero Genocide Foundation (OGF) chairperson, Nandiuasora Mazeingo gave an interview to Deutsche Welle. He criticized Germany’s decision to not renegotiate the joint declaration with Namibia, on the genocide of the Herero and Nama people during the German colonization of Namibia. On the same issue, Namibia’s leader of the opposition party, the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), McHenry Venaani also spoke to Deutsche Welle about his open letter to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. However, the Foreign Affairs Ministry has said that while they respect Namibian society and politics, as a matter of principle, they do not respond to open letters. Both Mazeingo and Venaani are demanding a clear, legal recognition of the genocide, as they consider the existing aid deal worth EUR 1.1 billion to be paid over 30 years as an insult. (Jasko Rust, “Namibia genocide: Opposition demands new deal with Germany,” Deutsche Welle, 13 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 202
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 13 September, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that close to 8000 square km were captured back by the Ukraine forces in the northeastern region of Kharkiv and “Stabilization measures” have half progressed.

On 12 September, according to Ukraine’s General Staff’s report, the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive made the Russian forces command delay in deploying newly formed units. The recent losses had lowered the troop’s morale, and has led to distrust amongst the Russian command by the soldiers. The report said that the hesitation in deploying the newly formed units might give Ukraine a chance to recover and push the offensive.

On 13 September, Ukraine’s Head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, and NATO’s 12th Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen presented a recommendation for security guarantees in Ukraine. It involved various countries aligning themselves with Ukraine to create a strong military force that would enable Ukraine to win the war against Russia. The security guarantees also include intensive collaborative training with the EU and NATO. The joint framework document on strategic partnership will be called as Kyiv Security Treaty.

On the same day, the Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, Main Directorate of Intelligence reported that Russian occupiers from Crimea and southern Ukraine were seen suddenly vacating the region after the losses from Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The Main Directorate of Intelligence stated: “.... representatives of the occupation administration of Crimea, FSB employees and commanders of some military units are secretly trying to sell their homes and urgently evacuate their relatives from the peninsula.” It observed that Russian authorities were also trying to hide information on their loss of Ukraine.

On 13 September, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Denmark’s Defence Minister, Morten Bødskov and Estonia’s Defence Minister, Hanno Pevkur. He thanked both countries for their financial, humanitarian and military aid. Estonia which had given 0.8 per cent of its GDP to Ukraine as aid, and Denmark helped strengthen Ukraine’s defence and provided various other assistance.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 13 September, Russia’s Presidential spokesperson Dimitry Peskov called out Ukraine’s forces for conducting violent acts against civilians in the Kharkiv region. He said that the people in Kharkiv region had faced torture and harsh treatment from Ukrainian army after Russia withdrew from the region. He added that Russian teachers who were affected by the Ukraine forces, were rescued back to Donetsk and Luhansk People’s republics by Russia. On the mobilization of the army, Peskov said that it was not on the current agenda of Russia’s special operation.

On the same day, Russia’s military and the Russian Air Force conducted multiple massive strikes on east, north and south Ukraine, resulting in 800 casualties on the Ukrainian side in a single day. The Defence Ministry of Russia declared, “As a result of the strikes, the losses among Ukrainian service members and foreign fighters exceeded 800 people killed and wounded,”. The Russian government also confirmed that until the objective of the special operation is completed, Russia will not leave Ukraine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 13 September, the UK’s Defence Ministry reported in its daily update that the Russian force that withdrew from Kharkiv Oblast was the 1st Guards Tank Army, which comes under the Western Military District (WEMD). The 1 GTA is a specialized unit whose purpose was to protect Moscow against a possible attack from NATO. 1 GTA suffered severe losses in the initial battle and never recovered, even during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. According to the UK’s Ministry of Defence, Russia’s weapons against NATO are severely weakened.

On 13 September, in the press conference, when question on Ukraine’s counteroffensive, US President Joe Biden said: “It's clear the Ukrainians have made significant progress. But I think it's going to be a long haul.” The US intelligence reported on Russia’s secret fund  transfer of USD 300 million to many political parties, organizations and two dozen countries to influence the political landscape and elections. It also accused Russia for posing “spurious allegations,” and spread of misinformation on operating biological weapons in Ukraine by the US.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 September, The UN High Commissioner for human rights, Nada Al-Nashif, said that the suffering of the Ukrainian people continues as the war progresses. She also highlighted that the grain ships leaving Ukraine’s port ensure they are reaching countries suffering from food insecurities. She also said that war should not let countries backtrack to using fossil fuels in times of fuel crisis. She urged all countries to consider the climate change factor and act appropriately. 
 
On 13 September, the US banking giant Goldman Sachs forecasted that the gas prices in Europe would fall in the winter of 2022. The analysts in Goldman Sachs said that Europe will have stored 90 per cent energy for the winter by the end of October, exceeding their goal of 80 per cent storage on 01 November. Europe had reached out to other sources following Gazprom halting Nord Stream 1 indefinitely. According to Goldman Sachs, the advanced storage for winter will drop the gas price. 

References
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 12,” ISW, 12 September 2022
Andriy Yermak and Anders Fogh Rasmussen present recommendations on security guarantees for Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 13 September 2022
The occupiers are urgently evacuating their families from Crimea and Southern Ukraine,” gur.gov.ua, 13 September 2022
President of Ukraine held a meeting with the Defense Ministers of Denmark and Estonia,” president.gov.ua, 13 September 2022
Kiev’s punitive operations against civilians in Kharkov Region outrageous — Kremlin,” TASS, 13 September 2022
Mobilization in Russia is not on the agenda — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 13 September 2022
European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs,” The Guardian, 13 September 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 September 2022,” Twitter, 13 September 2022
Live Updates: Ukrainians in Recaptured Territory Work Toward Resuming Normal Life,” nytimes, 13 September 2022
Remarks by President Biden After Voting at Local Polling Station,” Whitehouse.gov, 13 September 2022
Ukraine’s suffering continues, acting UN rights chief tells Human Rights Council,” news.un.org, 12 September 2022


13 September 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #305

War in Ukraine: Day 201

Albania’s progress in wind power production; March in Belgrade to ban EuroPride; Experts report of EU’s dismal waters; UN calls on EU to stop backtracking on climate goals

Photo : ISW/BBC


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee


ALBANIA
Albania makes progress on wind power production
On 12 September, Deutsche Welle reported on the status of Albania's wind power industry. Even though Albania is geographically rich with locations for onshore and offshore wind power generation, till date, no turbines and plants have been set up. However, steps are being taken, while a project to set up turbines had been initiated in 2008, faced roadblocks. In April 2022, the government has given Biopower Green Energy and Marseglia Group, an Albanian-Italian venture as an approval for onshore wind project. The plant is expected to produce 235 megawatts from 39 turbines, covering about one per cent of its electricity needs. (“The truth about Albania's non-existent wind power industry,” Deutsche Welle, 12 September 2022)

SERBIA
Thousands protest in Belgrade to ban EuroPride
On 11 September, thousands of religious and right-wing activists marched through Belgrade seeking a ban on EuroPride, which is scheduled to be held in Serbia. Homosexuality is legal in the state while same-sex marriages are banned and LGBTQ+ people face discrimination, harassment and antagonistic behavior. While the march was canceled by Aleksandar Vucic's government, the organizers of the event have planned to still go ahead. The head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Porfirije said: “They want to desecrate the sanctity of marriage and the family and impose an unnatural union as a substitute for marriage.” (Alice Taylor "Thousands march in Belgrade against EuroPride," Euractive, 12 September 2022)

REGIONAL
EU ready to negotiate with the UK over Northern Ireland Protocol clash
On 12 September, the EU's chief negotiator, Marcos Sefcovic, spoke to Financial Times, on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Sefcovic mentioned that the EU was ready to work in an open and constructive way with the UK. He said that customs checks for goods travelling across the Irish Sea could be reduced to only when there were reasonable grounds for suspicion. Earlier, Prime Minister Liz Truss had also elucidated her stance on the Protocol. Even though a negotiated solution was something she hoped for, she said that an acceptable solution would have to include all the policies in the government's Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. (“Maroš Šefčovič says physical checks across Irish Sea could be cut,” BBC, 12 September 2022)

Experts accuse the EU for not taking measure to maintain the marine protected areas
On 12 September, a group of 200 scientists and conservationists issued an analysis about the harmful effects of disruptive fishing in marine protected areas (MPAs). The analysis reported that bottom trawling, which is the most harmful and fuel-intensive fishing practice was done in 59 per cent of EU's MPAs, depleting vulnerable and endangered species. According to the report, EU's waters were observed to be in a "dismal" state and only one-third of the total fish population studied are in good condition. They recommended, first a transition to low-impact fisheries and the protection of 30 per cent of EU’s water as MPAs by 2030 as a key mandate of use biodiversity strategy. Second, of the 30 per cent, 10 per cent should be demarcated as strictly "no-take zone" in order to replenish depleted fisheries. (Karen KcVeigh, “EU slammed over failure to protect marine life from ‘destructive’ fishing,” The Guardian, 12 September 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
UAE rejects extradition of suspect in Danish tax fraud case
On 12 September, a court in the UAE rejected the extradition of hedge fund trader, Sanjay Shah to Denmark. Shah from the UK is the main suspect in a Danish dividend tax fraud case. Known as "Cum-Ex" trading, this scheme was used by Shah to submit applications to the Danish Treasury on behalf of investors and companies for dividend tax refunds in a way such that they made double tax reclaims. Danish authorities say that Shah was the mastermind behind the USD 1.7 billion tax scheme that ran for three years. Denmark’s Justice Minister Mattias Tesfaye said: “I understand that today’s decision in the extradition case is not final and that the prosecution in the United Arab Emirates has the opportunity to appeal the decision." Tesfaye mentioned that he would initiate contact with UAE's prosecution office. Shah was arrested in Dubai in June, and an extradition agreement had been signed between the two countries. If extradited, he faces up to 12 years in jail. (“Cum-Ex: Dubai court rejects extradition of British suspect in Danish fraud case,” Deutsche Welle, 12 September 2022)

UN Human Rights chief calls on EU to stop “backtracking” on climate goals
On 12 September, the UN’s acting human rights chief, Nada Al-Nashif delivered a speech in the Human Rights Council. In the speech, she called on EU member states to stop “backtracking” on their climate goals, despite the looming energy crisis. Due to the possibility of gas shortages in the winter, several EU member states have restarted coal-fired plants and other fossil fuel-based energy production. Al-Nashif pointed out that locking in more fossil fuels now would have adverse long-term consequences. Referring to the ongoing climate crisis, she said: “It is essential to accelerate the development of energy efficiency projects and renewables.” (“EU countries must avoid 'backtracking' on climate goals, UN says,” Euronews, 12 September)


War in Ukraine: Day 201
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

War on the Ground

On 12 September, Ukraine’s Minister of Finance, Serhiy Marchenko, gave an online speech at the International Monetary Conference 2022, which was held in Munich, Germany, on the topic “Ukraine’s recovery needs”. In his speech, Marchenko stated that Ukraine’s economy had quickly recovered from the COVID- 19 crisis before the invasion of Russia. He talked about the devastation caused by the war on the state, its economy and its people. Marchenko also discussed Ukraine’s immediate need for USD 105 billion to survive the winter, repair critical transportation, support the next cropping season, social conditions and demining. Marchenko added that Ukraine’s government relies on foreign investments to help them in their time of need.
 
On the same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with CNN that Ukraine will deny negotiation with Russia unless it withdraws its troop entirely from the country. He added that discussing diplomacy, lifting sanctions, reparation and payment from Russia’s side would be possible only after the war's end. The involvement of any international leaders or institutions will also be possible only after Russia fulfils the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories.
 
On 12 September, Ukraine forces reported on winning eight offensives out of the nine launched against Russia in Kharkiv region. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine had gained back 3000 square kilometers, which is close to 1,158 miles of territory. As per the report from the Ukraine military, Russia has tried to disconnect electricity and water supply to counter Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv city. On the Russia confirmed on the retreat from the areas of  Izyum and Kupiansk which are considered the gateways to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the Donbas. While Ukraine is observed to be advancing on the front in north-eastern part of Kharkiv, the possible challenges listed by BBC are, the increased risk of being captured in bulk in the front line by Russia and costly intervention in terms of equipment, ammunition and troops. Zelenskyy said: “From the beginning of September until today, our warriors have already liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine - in the east and south. The movement of our troops continues.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 September, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and various Ministers and Governors to discuss the state of Russia's economy. He also discussed the draft budget for 2023-2025. Putin mentioned that Russia was not in danger economically as the government had implemented various protective measures to ensure they did not go into recession. According to Putin, Russia was confident in handling external pressure. He also added that inflation dropped from 17.8 per cent in April to 14.1 per cent in September, calculated till 05 September. The government believes that inflation will drop to 12  per cent by the end of 2022.
 
On 12 September, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported on the attacks launched using Russian Aerospace Forces, 113th Territorial Defence Brigade and 93rd Mechanised brigade to neutralise the Ukraine forces near Kupyansk and Izyum. It also disclosed on launching high-precision attacks, operational tactical and army aviation on the military bases of Ukaine.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 September, the governments of France and Romania signed an agreement on allowing more grain exports from Ukraine through rivers, seas and roads to reach other parts of the continent and developing nations. The deal occurred after Putin threatened to limit grain export through the Black Sea because he claims that most grains that leave Ukraine do not reach starving countries but instead feed the EU States. The UK’s Ministry of Defence debunked Putin’s claims stating that the UN statistics show that 30 per cent of the grain arrived at low and middle-income countries.
 
Also on the same day, the Czech Republic’s President said that the country could not be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine as it is an “...interested party and a participating country” in the ongoing war. He also said that countries like China, Turkey and Israel should be better candidates for being a mediator between Russia and Ukraine to stop the war. The Czech Republic had been a strong ally of Ukraine. There were also mass anti-government protests demanding the Czech government take a neutral stance due to the rise in energy prices and inflation in the country. Prime Minister Petr Fiala ignored the protest stating that they were fanned by Russia.
 
Spain’s national gas grid operator released a data on how Spain’s natural gas suppliers had changes in the last year. The largest supplier to Spain being the US, where liquified natural gas has been provided to Spain through maritime tankers. Till now Spain has brought 97,000 gigawatt hours from the US, after which Algeria which was the second largest supplier with 40 per cent to Spain stopped upon crack in relations between Morocco and Algeria. At present only one pipeline is under operation to transport gas into Spain. The Ukraine war did not cut Spain from buying gas from Russia, which accounted for 23 per cent gas exports to Spain. To divert its gas shortage, Spain has increased its imports from Nigeria and alternatives such as coal, solar and nuclear energy to meet its energy demands.

On 12 September, Germany’s Defence Minister, Christine Lambrecht urged the government to increase its role in the Ukraine war as a global player, including providing military support. With Germany rethinking its defence strategy  and Europe facing challenges due to the impact of war, she urged to increase the defence budget to two per cent of its GDP and the need to meet the NATO target post the EUR 100 billion funds. Lambrecht said: “The war in Ukraine has shown everyone, even us Germans who are used to peace, that states need armed forces as a last resort — that is, whenever an enemy is determined to use invasion, destruction, murder and forced displacement.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 September, International Monetary Fund (IMF) discussed measures to be taken to keep the soaring food prices in check with its executive board members. The measure allows IMF to help countries impacted by the war in Ukraine. A formal vote for the fund is expected to occur before the IMF's annual meeting in October. The fund would allow countries to borrow an additional 50 per cent of their IMF quota, increasing their access limit. IMF is also working closely with Ukraine to provide any necessary help. In March, IMF approved USD 1.4 billion in an emergency fund for Ukraine under the RFI instrument to help Ukraine meet its urgent demands and needs. The war affected the global trade, production and consumption of goods that, gave rise to record high prices.

References
Merlyn Thomas, “Ukraine war: Russians 'outnumbered 8-1' in counter-attack,” BBC, 12 September 2022
Elsa Maishman, “Ukraine war: Kharkiv blackouts caused by targeted Russian attacks – Zelensky,” BBC, 12 September 2022
We still need to strengthen our cooperation with partners to overcome Russian terror – address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 12 September 2022
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,” Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
Anadolu Agency, “Spain’s gas imports from US, Russia rise amid tensions with Algeria,” Daily Sabah, 12 September 2022
Germany must accept leading military role, says defense minister,” Deutsche Welle, 12 September 2022
Serhii Marchenko at IMC2022: Financial policy and economic stability in recent years helped to cope with the first consequences of the war,” mof.gov.ua, 12 September 2022
Zelensky: Negotiations with Russia are impossible until complete de-occupation of our territories,” Ukrinform, 12 September 2022
France-Romania deal to export more grain from Ukraine to be signed Monday,” Politico, 11 September 2022
Czech president explains why Prague can’t mediate between Moscow and Kiev,” Azerbaycan24, 12 September 2022
IMF eyes expanded access to emergency aid for food shocks,” Daily Sabah, 12 September 2022


12 September 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #304

The UK: Domestic, regional and global challenges to the new Prime Minister | War in Ukraine: Day 199

Photo : Gov.uk


EM Exclusive
The UK: Domestic, regional and global challenges to the new Prime Minister
By Sourina Bej

On 6 September, Boris Johnson bid farewell to his three years tenure as the UK’s Prime Minister and paved the path for Liz Truss, his former foreign secretary. On 5 September, in a close call, the UK conservative party chose Liz Truss to replace Boris Johnson for the next two years. Boris Johnson leaves behind a legacy to “get BREXIT done” yet his means to the withdrawal agreement leaves deep-rooted irrevocable impacts for the new prime minister. What are the challenges before Liz Truss as she begins her maiden tenure as the UK’s next Prime Minister?

Domestic Challenges
Deep electoral divisions, coalition politics and splits within conservatives

Since the 2016 referendum, the British voting pattern had remained polarized between the nationalist and the unionist voters. This great divide was reflected along partisan lines such as the nationalists swinged for the political conservative right while the unionists voted for the political left. However, this faultline further deepened during Johnson’s period, when he periodically evoked partisan loyalty to get policy support and the resultant has been further divisions in loyalty and fragmentation within the conservative party. Under Johnson, voters were further disconnected from the grand old political parties, thus forcing the conservatives to forge a coalition with both nationalist and unionist voters who were not left-wing supporters.

Uniting the conservative party will be a political challenge for Liz Truss and she has shown her steadfast motivation by choosing a multi-ethnically represented cabinet.

Furthermore, a culture of executive centralism revived by Johnson, is yet to transition under Liz Truss. With a coterie-style of governance, Johnson revived authoritarian populism and put several committees and strategy units under direct leadership of a few cabinet members. In choosing a strong cabinet, Truss has already shown her dependence on it for all pressing matters and she will in all likelihood have to tread a balance between authoritarian management and democratic accountability.

The BREXIT economic maze to war-triggered energy crisis
As Johnson prepared to take the country out of the economic bloc, he failed to fully make his domestic market resilient to the aftershocks from the BREXIT. Rather in his final Prime Minister’s Questions session in the parliament, Johnson repeated a favorite refrain: Britain had the “fastest economic growth” among the G7. The Bank of England, today, projects that Britain will enter a recession before 2023, making it clear that Brexit may not have sunk the economy, but it was not opportune as well. In addition, the war in the Ukraine has deeply impacted the energy trade pushing the prices in the summer months. Households in the UK, today, are bracing for the energy price cap to rise by 80 per cent from October, after Ofgem, the industry regulator, confirmed the move at the end of last month.

On 6 September, the BBC has reported that Truss plans to spend up to $150 billion on freezing energy bills for the next 18 months, by offering loans to energy companies.However, what has not featured in Truss’s campaign policy are impact packages for the those affected disproportionally such as the poorer households, who typically spend a larger share of their income on basic essentials.

Healthcare and post COVID crisis
The cumulative impact from the inflations and lack of welfare fiscal packages to pump in more liquid assets in the hands of the people has been unemployment, strikes and the systemic breakdown of essential services such as the healthcare. Waiting times to receive health care are at their longest in recent history in the whole of the UK. This is in part because of the pandemic putting the National Health Service under greater strain, but it is also because of staff shortages and insufficient funding. For Truss, it would be imperative to consider a national health package to ease the funding crunch and ensure return of staffers to ease the workforce pressure.

Regional Challenges
Revival of ethnonationalist tensions in Northern Ireland
As much as BREXIT stoked questions on the power sharing dynamics in the Northern Ireland, it was Johnson’s way of sidelining the NI protocol and trying to substitute it with a domestic legislation that alienated the pro-British unionist community. The unionist versus nationalist faultline in the Northern Ireland, rendered acute by the BREXIT referendum vote, was more divided with Johnson’s constant tinkering with clauses agreed with the EU. The unionists who largely supported the BREXIT are now conservative sceptics. The next challenge for Liz Truss will be her policy stand over the Northern Ireland. Talks with the EU have halted and the bill has been heavily campaigned by Liz Truss as a foreign secretary. The Democratic Unionist Party in NI has refused to return to its power-sharing arrangement at Stormont until the protocol is changed. The key date for Liz Truss to remember will be 28 October when the deadline to restore the government at Stormont ends. In addition, on 16 September, the UK will have to respond to the legal charges brought by Brussels and Truss’s hardline approach on the matter could probably volte face.

The question over Scottish referendum
The question over Scottish referendum could strengthen under Liz Truss. At a time when Nicola Sturgeon is pressing for another independence referendum, the new government will need to seek a political arrangement on the same. In October 2022, the UK Supreme Court will consider whether Holyrood has the power to hold the referendum without Westminster's consent but with recent hard line campaign by Liz Truss, the relation between the two leaders have soured. “I feel like I’m a child of the union, I really believe we’re a family and we’re better together and I think the best thing to do with Nicola Sturgeon is ignore her,” said Truss in her election campaign statement. Her hawkish views on both Northern Ireland and the referendum in Scotland could mean further alienation and not mitigating the ethnonationalist challenges.

External Challenges
Support for Ukraine
Truss has pledged to boost defense spending to three per cent of GDP, which the analyst group the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) estimated will cost an additional $180 billion. Like Johnson, she has also decided to continue giving military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Britain has so far pledged around $3.8 billion. Under Johnson, Britain was an early and strong supporter of Ukraine’s efforts to resist Russia’s invasion. Truss, as foreign secretary, stood squarely behind Johnson’s Ukraine policy, supporting the transfer of heavy weaponry to Kyiv among other measures. In all likelihood, a policy of ‘strategic voice’ for Ukraine will strengthen under Liz Truss, at a time when the EU’s united front is oscillating between appeasement for gas and sanctions.

Hawkish views on China, Russia
The support for Ukraine is equally balanced by Truss’s hawkish view on Russia. She has since being a foreign secretary regarded the 2014-15 Minsk accords as a “totemic mistake.” Furthermore, in a big symbolic gesture, Truss’s staff had briefed The Times last week that she would officially declare China a national security “threat” after entering Downing Street. Truss’s hawkishness on China applies to military as well as economic issues. She was closely involved in the decision to ban Chinese telecoms firm Huawei from involvement in Britain’s 5G network, over national security concerns.

Relation with EU
Ending the distrust with the EU, one of the UK’s biggest trading partner, could be a challenge for Liz Truss. As she assumed office, the EU leaders have subterfuge their concern over a strong Eurosceptic as a leader. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief, tweeted that the UK and EU were partners, facing current challenges together - but that she hoped as prime minister, Liz Truss would be "constructive", respecting agreements previously reached between the two sides.

The reason for a better relation with the EU could probably ease its internal inflation. Despite BREXIT, the impacts from the EU has never ceased. When Germany is attempting to find alternatives to Russian energy, and bids aggressively for Norwegian gas - a source the UK already relies on – it has affected the prices, and potentially will further impact supply routes as well. Next, concerns over migration remains. As foreign secretary, Liz Truss promised to be “robust” with the French authorities to stop the rising number of refugees and other migrants trying to reach the UK across the English Channel. Yet in her electoral campaign, she has never chose to soothe her stand on the Anglo-French relation.

Transatlantic partnership
As Liz Truss assumes office, the US President Joe Biden in his congratulatory message also stressed the importance of reaching an agreement with the EU over post-Brexit legislation on Northern Ireland. The transatlantic partnership could be strained if Liz Truss pushes ahead with the legislation altering the Norther Ireland Protocol and for the US president proud of his Irish roots, treading the diplomatic show will be keenly watched.


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GREECE
Prime Minister aims to keep communication lines with Turkey open
On 11 September, Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that Greece aimed to keep communication channels with Turkey functional, even after “unacceptable” comments by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Earlier, Erdogan accused Greece for occupying few demilitarized islands in the Aegean Sea, which has been a historic point of contention between the states. He also said that Turkey was ready to take necessary steps against Greece, when it saw fit. In response, Mitsotakis took a more moderate stance whereby he did not foresee an escalation of the conflict into an armed one. He said: “I don't believe this will ever happen. And if, God forbid, it happened, Turkey would receive an absolutely devastating response. And I think they know it very well… the competence of the Greek [armed] forces.” (“Greek PM wants to keep channels with Turkey open despite "unacceptable" comments,” Reuters, 11 September 2022)

IRELAND
Ireland begins payment scheme for artists affected by the COVID-19 pandemic
On 11 September, Ireland's government begun the scheme of paying 2000 artists, musicians, writers and performers EUR 325 per week. The move comes after the government plans for the Basic Income for the Arts scheme which was announced in January 2022. Recommended by the Irish Minister, Catherine Martin, the scheme is to mitigate the "unprecedented damage" caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 9000 people applied for the scheme of which 2000 were selected anonymously. The selected people will also be eligible for social welfare payments and other income sources as the scheme is not means tested. Which will be spent by the government of approximately EUR 25 million on the scheme, giving a breakdown of which Irish county the 2000 people reside in. Dublin recorded the highest number of recipients followed by Cork and Galway. (Robbie Meredith, “Covid-19: Irish government pays 'basic income' to artists,” BBC, 11 September 2022)
 
SPAIN
Famous novelist Javier Marias passes away at 70
On 11 September, one of Spain’s most prolific writers, Javier Marias passed away at the age of 70.  He was ill with pneumonia, after contracting a bout of COVID-19 earlier. His publisher, Alfaguara announced the news in a brief statement. Born in 1951, Marias was touted by many as a candidate for the Nobel Prize for Literature. He has penned 16 novels and was also a member of Spain’s Royal Academy and an international member of the UK’s Royal Society of Literature. However, unwilling to be favoured by any particular government, he refused Spain’s EUR 20,000 national narrative prize for his novel, "The Infatuations," in 2012. Condolences for the author poured in after his passing. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez hailed Marias as “one of the great writers of our time.” Fellow writers like Rosa Montero, Eduardo Mendoza and the editor-in-chief of El Pais, Pepa Bueno also expressed their condolences about Marias’s passing. (“Spain: Award-winning author Javier Marias dies aged 70,” Deutsche Welle, 11 September 2022; Sam Jones, “Spanish novelist Javier Marías dies at home in Madrid aged 70,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022)

SWEDEN
Right-wing opposition closes gap in Sweden elections
On 11 September, Sweden conducted their general elections pitting the incumbent centre-left Social Democrats against the right-wing Sweden Democrats. While the results are uncertain, exit polls have showed that the Sweden Democrats have overtaken the moderates and closed the gap between themselves and the Social democrats. The election campaign as a run up to this election was extremely controversial. Tackling gun violence was one of the major issues for voters in this election, along with surging inflation and the energy crisis because of the war in Ukraine. The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, has said that gun crime across Sweden is increasing faster than anywhere else in Europe, as 42 people have died from shootings in 2022. All the parties contesting the elections have promised a crackdown on gang crime and gun violence. The vote count is expected to be finalized by 14 September. (Elsa Maishman & Alex Binley, “Sweden election: Result could take days as vote too close to call,” BBC, 12 September 2022; Maddy Savage, “Sweden election: Gang shootings cast shadow over vote,” BBC, 10 September 2022)

SWITZERLAND
Switzerland proposes to install nuclear waste storage facility near Germany’s border
On 10 September, Switzerland’s National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (Nagra) proposed the setting up of a nuclear waste storage facility on the border with Germany. The Federal Office of Energy said that Nördlich Lägern, to the north of Zurich has been suggested as the site for the facility. Nagra, which comprises of representatives of power plants and the government deals with the issue of disposal of radioactive wastes. According to an official at Nagra, Patrick Struder, the waste, sourced from five Swiss nuclear power plants will be stored in opalinus clay and lowered several hundred metres underground. However, the storage facility which will be a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste will need to be approved by Switzerland’s government and parliament, after Nagra submits a planning application by 2024. Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment has expressed concerns about the proximity of the repository to the German border. A representative from the German coordination office for the planned waste facility said that nuclear safety and uncontaminated drinking water supply must be looked into before the site is set up. (“Switzerland plans controversial nuclear waste storage facility near German border,” Deutsche Welle, 10 September 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
WHO European member to commence annual meeting
On 12 September, the 72nd session for the WHO Regional Committee for Europe (RC72) began. In the 3-day session, ministers of health and high-level public health experts from the 53 member states of the WHO will be taking part. The event is being hosted in Tel Aviv by the Health Ministry of Israel, but will follow a hybrid format. The delegates will discuss the progress made since 2020 and will cover issues like “empowerment through digital health, health promotion through behavioural and cultural insights, addressing health worker shortages and access to affordable medicines.” They also aim for a consensus on the updated regional action plans like ending cervical cancer, reducing alcohol consumption, pushing for accelerated action to tackle tuberculosis, HIV, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections. Commissioning more research and diagnostics on people suffering from long COVID, the current monkeypox outbreak and the health impacts of the war in Ukraine is also part of the agenda. (“Countdown to the annual meeting of ministers setting the health agenda across the European Region,” who.int10 September 2022)

Death toll of migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Tunisia reaches 11
On 10 September, the death toll of migrants from Tunisia who died in a shipwreck on their way to Italy, reached 11. The boat, carrying 37 migrants had set off from the Sfax region in Tunisia, which has become a major departure point for migrants trying to enter into Europe. Other than the 11 deceased, 12 people are still missing and 14 have been rescued by Tunisia’s coastguard. The International Organization for Migration reports that 1033 migrants have been classified as dead or missing while attempting to cross the central Mediterranean. According to the EU border agency Frontex, 52,000 irregular entries, mainly from Tunisia, Egypt and Bangladesh have been recorded via the central Mediterranean route between January to August 2022. (Alex Binley, “Tunisia: Eleven migrants die in latest Mediterranean accident,” BBC, 12 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 199 & 200
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

War on the ground
On 10 September, Ukraine’s counter offensive in the north-east, south, has led to the retreatment of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. On 10 September, the Ukraine forces reported on gaining back the control of rail hub of Kupiansk, and Izium which served as the base for Russian forces. The same was observed when Russian officials confirmed on the movement of its troops from Balakliia and Izium to meet its efforts in Donbas. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his address declared on winning back 2000 square kilometres from the counter offensive against Russia. One of the residents from Izium stated: “Russian occupying forces were rapidly withdrawing, leaving ammunition and equipment behind.” 

Izium is seen as strategic points in war due to its dual geographic link with Donbas and Black Sea, allowing Russian forces to launch attacks in Donbas region. With the distractive southern offensive, Ukraine captured back more than third of Kharkiv region.

On 10 September, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal asked the country’s foreign partners to increase their cooperation with International Monetary Fund during his speech at Yalta European Strategy Annual Meeting held in Kyiv. According to Shmyhal, IMF has been significant in Ukraine’s financial development from the 2014 Crimean invasion until Russia’s attack in 2022. He said that Ukraine needs IMF aid to go through the war. In the meeting, he added that Ukraine was set to fulfil all seven criteria required to become a member of the EU by the end of 2022. Ukraine intends to become a full-fledged EU member in two years.

On the same day, Minsk in Belarus and Sevastopol in Russia-occupied Crimea signed an agreement on cooperation on the export and import of goods, urban economy, in the fields of education, culture, science, youth policy and patriotic education. The agreement was signed by Mayor Vladimir Kukharev and Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhayev. Although Belarus has not recognized the Russian-annexed Crimean territory, the self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko acknowledges the sovereignty of the region.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 September, President Vladimir Putin met the permanent members of Russia’s Security Council. He thanked them for participating in the Eastern Economic Forum, saying that it has yielded “good results.” He referred to the criticism to his comments about Ukraine’s grains not going to the poorest countries and said that the Foreign Ministry will contact its partners about the issue. Putin alleged that most of the grains from the UN-brokered deal were going to the EU, while only two ships with only three per cent of the total grains exported have been sent to the poorest countries like Yemen and Djibouti. Putin said: “We believe it to be right to ramp up deliveries to the poorest countries.” He also expressed readiness to supply fertilizers to the poorest nations free of charge.
 
On the same day, RIA Novosti reported a three to four kilometer line of refugees near the Logachvka checkpoint on the border between Kharkiv and Russia. This is in response to the increased attacks in Kharkiv, where Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive. The Russian head of the Kharkiv region, Vitaly Ganchev also appealed to residents to evacuate if their homes fell in the war zone. He said the border service of Russia would arrange for all necessary assistance, if they cross into the country. 

On the same day, the sixth reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was switched off due to a continued attack on the plant by Ukraine, RT reported. Due to the risk of an accident, Ukrainian state-owned company Energoatom said it has cold shut down the last unit, forcing the nuclear facility to halt.
On the 10 September, the Russian military and the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk troops were seen withdrawing from Izyum and Balakleya in the Donetsk region. The withdrawal comes after Ukraine conducted a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 September, the European Commission called the member states to revalue their regulations based on origin and risk factor in providing visas to Russia tourists. According to EU home affairs commissioner: “We should not be naive, Putin’s aim is to destroy the EU and he would like to attack us where we are weakest.”

On 11 September, France President Emmanuel Macron, and Putin exchanged accusations over the increasing threat of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia released a statement saying, it only withdrew attention on the Ukraine attacks on the plant, while the Macron administration, in its statement accused Russia for posing a nuclear threat and urged the Russian forces to remove heavy and light weapons from the nuclear plant zone and to follow the safety recommendations given by IAEA.

The UK Defence Ministry in its intelligence update, reported on the Russian forces movement post Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It stated that Russia’s prediction on Ukraine’s southern offensive served as a distraction for Ukraine to advance in the north of Kharkiv. 

On 09 September, the Wall Street Journal reported on the range of Howitzers and artillery received by Ukraine so far from US, its allies and NATO. Starting from Soviet-era artillery, German Panzerhaubitze which are one of the high-end howitzer model with ability to aim with precision, and automated loading, France’s Caesar howitzer which can travel 600 kilometres without refuelling, US’s 155mm self-propelled howitzer, Austria’s M109A5Ö which was supplied by Lativia, and UK’s M109A4BE. Apart from this Poland and Czech Republic have also given 2S1 Gvozdikas artillery systems to Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 11 September, (IAEA) Chief Rafael Grossi  warned over the growing concern of new set of attacks in Zaporizhzhia. He said: “Shelling has caused a complete blackout in Energodar (town) and compromised the safe operation of the nearby Zaporizhzhia (plant).” Expressing objection over, he disclosed that close to 200 people were detained by Russia and were ill-treated.

References
Denys Shmyhal: We are working with our partners to intensify cooperation with the IMF,” gov.ua, 11 September 2022
Denys Shmyhal: We have the ambition to become a full-fledged member of the European Union in a maximum of two years,” gov.ua, 11 September 2022
Minsk and occupied Sevastopol agree to ‘cooperate’,” Kyiv Post, 11 September 2022
Lavrov assessed the risks of delaying negotiations with Ukraine,” LENTA.RU, 11 September 2022
Election campaign in Russia is going smoothly — official,” TASS, 11 September 2022
Last power unit switched off at Zaporozhye nuclear plant,” RT, 11 September 2022
Russian troops withdraw from several settlements in Ukraine – media,” RT, 10 September 2022
Russian military explains partial withdrawal,” RT, 10 September 2022
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT,” ISW, 11 September 2022
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,” Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 11 September 2022
Ukraine-Russia war latest: what we know on day 200 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022
Putin and Macron trade blame over risk at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022
Ukraine-Russia war latest: what we know on day 199 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022, 11 September 2022
Ukrainian counter-offensive in north-east inflicts a defeat on Moscow,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022, 11 September 2022
Ukraine Uses Array of Howitzers to Repel Russia’s Invasion,” WSJ, 09 September 2022
Russia pulls back from Kharkiv area as Ukrainian forces make major gains,” pbs.org10 September 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Russian forces withdraw from key areas in Kharkiv region,” Deutche Welle, 11 September 2022


10 September 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #303

War in Ukraine: Day 198

Photo : Kremlin.ru


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

ITALY
Far-right Brothers of Italy set to become the majority in both chambers
On 09 September, a study by the Cattaneo Institute think tank on an opinion poll conducted on 31 August showed that the conservative alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy would become a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in the upcoming elections. The 25 September election will see the rise of the far-right Brother of Italy as the largest party in the parliament. The fractured centre-left Democratic Party is seen losing its standing in the parliament against a united conservative bloc. It is set to become the second largest majority after the alliance. The left-wing 5-star party will become the third largest majority. (Gavin Jones, “Italy's right heads for clear election victory, final polls indicate,” Reuters, 09 September 2022)

SWEDEN
Rise of the far-right in Sweden causing concerns among its citizens amid internal problems
On 09 September, the recent polls in Sweden showed the rise of the far-right Sweden Democrats. The people are afraid that the far right might win even though the left-wing Social Democrats are at the lead currently. The right-wing parties, the conservatives, liberals, and Christian-Democrats, are seen backing the far-right Sweden Democrats. The major worries that the people of Sweden in their country are climate change, increasing gang violence and tough immigration policies. The anti-immigrant attitude that the Sweden Democrats have is also concerning to the people. Due to slow integration, there have been a lot of gangs and gun violence in the country. The polling is set to occur on 11 September. (Priyanka Shankar, “Swedish elections: What's at stake,” Deutsche Welle, 09 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Eurozone fights inflation by rising 0.75 per cent point
On 08 September, the European Central Bank increased its cost of borrowing rate by 0.75 per cent totaling 1.25 per cent to keep inflation in check. Inflations of the Eurozone rose from 8.9 per cent in July to 9.1 in August. The ECB is predicted to have stagnant growth during the winter ahead but might avoid recession, according to the central bank’s President Christine Lagarde. Each national bank is set to take measures to control the growing inflation and the impending Recession. The Bank of England has increased its points rise by 0.5 per cent making the base rate at 2.25 per cent. The meeting to confirm the rise is postponed to 22 September to honour the Queen’s death. (Philip Inman, “Eurozone interest rates must continue to rise, says European Central Bank,” The Guardian, 09 September 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Navalny’s treatment by Russian authorities is concerning: the US
On 09 September, the US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that the US is concerned about the treatment of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny who is currently in prison. Navalny was said to be placed in solitary confinement, even for minor violations. Navalny is the major opposition to President Vladimir Putin and the most vocal critic inside Russia. Navalny said that he was imprisoned on false charges, which was done to suppress dissent and destroy his political ambitions. The prison authorities also stripped him of his attorney-client privilege and let him communicate through double plastic glass with bars inside. (“U.S. 'deeply concerned' by Russia's treatment of jailed opposition leader Navalny,” Reuters, 10 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 198
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
On 09 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the CEO of Turkey’s defence company Baykar, Haluk Bayraktar. Zelenskyy thanked the contribution of Baykar in Ukraine’s fight against Russia and presented Bayraktar with an Order of Merit, first class. The two parties discussed further cooperation and strengthening the defence capabilities of Ukraine’s forces. On the same day, the President of Latvia, Egils Levits, Poland’s Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki, and former Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński, Czech Republic’s Prime Minister, Petr Fiala and Slovenia’s former Prime Minister of Janez Janša were honored on the Alley of Courage on Constitution Square in Kyiv. Zelenskyy thanked the leaders and their countries for the continuous support to Ukraine. Levits too presented Zelenskyy with the highest military award of the Republic of Latvia – the Order of Viesturs. The decision to honor Zelenskyy was due to his steadfast defence of his state.

In a Telegram post, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has an army with one of the largest numbers of women serving in the ranks. He released a new video titled "Fight for Freedom" by United24 Media, which pays respect to the women defenders, their dedication and decision to be on the frontlines of the war. Zelenskyy said that more than being man or woman, protecting freedom was the driver behind so many women joining the forces.

On 09 September, Critical Threats reported on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. So far, an estimated 2,500 square kilometers have been recaptured by Ukraine. Forces are advancing from Kupyansk and the Oskil River to Izyum. They will be successful in collapsing the Russian positions in the region if they can disrupt the major Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). As response to this counteroffensive, Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of Russian military convoy enroute the Kharviv City-Izyum line. The forces had been redeployed from this region to the Donetsk region to strengthen Russia's hold in the Southern Axis.

On 09 September, the Ukraine government, World Bank and the European Commission released a report on costs incurred by Ukraine due to Russia’s invasion. Till June, Ukraine had suffered over USD 97 billion in direct damages and lost approximately USD 252 billion through disruptions to its economic production and supply chains. Due to the war, it is estimated that Ukraine’s poverty rate will rise to 21 per cent from two per cent before the war. As of June, Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts will require USD 349 billion, which is around 1.6 times the country’s GDP in 2021. The report mentioned that the numbers were preliminary and likely to increase as the war continues. It said: “The impact of the invasion will be felt for generations, with families displaced and separated, disruptions to human development, destruction of intrinsic cultural heritage and reversal of a positive economic and poverty trajectory.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 September, President Vladimir Putin met the permanent members of Russia’s Security Council. He thanked them for participating in the Eastern Economic Forum, saying that it has yielded “good results.” He referred to the criticism to his comments about Ukraine’s grains not going to the poorest countries and said that the Foreign Ministry will contact its partners about the issue. Putin alleged that most of the grains from the UN-brokered deal were going to the EU, while only two ships with only three per cent of the total grains exported have been sent to the poorest countries like Yemen and Djibouti. Putin said: “We believe it to be right to ramp up deliveries to the poorest countries.” He also expressed readiness to supply fertilizers to the poorest nations free of charge.
 
On the same day, RIA Novosti reported a three to four kilometer line of refugees near the Logachvka checkpoint on the border between Kharkiv and Russia. This is in response to the increased attacks in Kharkiv, where Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive. The Russian head of the Kharkiv region, Vitaly Ganchev also appealed to residents to evacuate if their homes fell in the war zone. He said the border service of Russia would arrange for all necessary assistance, if they cross into the country. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 


On 09 September, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken to the NATO headquarters for the North Atlantic Council meeting. Stoltenberg appreciated how the US is leading the way in terms of aid to Ukraine. He thanked the US for the recently announced USD 2.7 billion package of additional support. In his address, Stoltenberg referred to the decisions taken by the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Ramstein, and reiterated the ramping up and continuing the military support for Ukraine. 
 
On 09 September, EU finance ministers and Central Bank governors met with the European Commission and the European Commission Bank at an informal meeting in Prague. The finance ministers discussed on the impact of the war in Ukraine on their economies and supported the new assistance package worth EUR five billion. The EU energy ministers met at an emergency meeting in Brussels and asked the European Commission to propose broader price caps on revenue from non-gas energy producers. They said that this would help the firms survive. However, they could not take any concrete decision on a cap for Russian gas prices. The commission is expected to release its recommendations on 13 September.
 
On 08 September, Latvia’s Cabinet passed and adopted the decision to impose travel restrictions on Russian citizens. This is to prevent Russians from using Latvia as a transit point for tourism into other areas in Europe. A similar stance has been taken by Lithuania, Latvia and Poland too. The decision takes effect from 19 September 2022. On the same issue, the EU also suspended the visa travel agreement that they had with Russia, thus making it more difficult and expensive for Russian traveling into the Schengen Area. The suspension will take effect from 12 September.
 
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Ukraine is ready to help Poland with the reduction of coal use for power generation. Ukraine will also be ready to supply Poland with electricity. Morawiecki thanked Zelenskyy for his willingness to provide the necessary assistance in a short notice, given the energy crisis across Europe. The two leaders also discussed the ways in which traffic flow at the border can be controlled better, since there is a significant backlog of trucks waiting to cross the border on both sides
 
Also on 08 September, The New York Times reported on the comments by the head of US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns at a conference in Washington. Burns alleged that Putin had underestimated the Ukrainian resolve to defend itself when invading Ukraine in February. According to Burns, as Ukraine still continues its counteroffensive, Putin’s invasion can be deemed as a failure. He said: “Not only has the weakness of the Russian military been exposed … but there is going to be long-term damage done to the Russian economy and to generations of Russians.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 09 September, the Head of the UN human rights mission in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner spoke at a press briefing about the human rights situation in Ukraine. Joining from Odessa, she said that 14,059 civilian casualties have been corroborated, though actual numbers are estimated to be higher. On the issue of prisoners of war, Bogner claimed that Russia is not allowing access to the prisoners held at facilities controlled by them. She said UN monitors had found evidences of torture and ill-treatment of the prisoners, alleging that some of the torture could amount to war crimes. Specifically, she mentioned a penal colony in Olenivka, where the prisoners were suffering from infectious diseases like hepatitis A and Tuberculosis. Similar situations were also noted in government controlled territories and places controlled by Russia’s armed forces too. Bogner said that the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine will continue to document the human rights situation in Ukraine and the next report is expected to be released on 27 September.  

References
President of Ukraine, Baykar CEO discuss cooperation in defense sector,” president.gov.ua09 September 2022
Statesmen of Latvia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia honored on Alley of Courage in Kyiv,” president.gov.ua09 September 2022
Ukrainian army one of those with largest number of female soldiers – Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 09 September
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9,” Critical Threats, 10 September 2022         
Andrea Shalal, “Rebuilding Ukraine after Russian invasion may cost $350 bln, experts say,” Reuters, 09 September 2022
Russia makes grain promise to poorest nations,” RT, 09 September 2022
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council,” kremlin.ru09 September 2022
A queue of refugees lined up on the border between Russia and the Kharkiv region,” LENTA.RU09 September 2022
The authorities of the Kharkiv region urged residents to leave the battle zone,” ria.ru10 September 2022
NATO Secretary General and U.S. Secretary of State address NATO’s strong response to Russia’s war on Ukraine,” nato.int09 September 2022
Poland says Ukraine ready to offer power as coal alternative,” AP News, 09 September 2022
Latvia confirms rules on EU tourist visa restrictions for Russians,” eng.lsm.lv, 09 September 2022
EU makes it harder for Russian tourists to enter bloc from Monday,” Reuters, 09 September 2022
EU ministers agree statement in support of additional €5 billion assistance for Ukraine,” consilium.europa.eu, 09 September 2022
Isobel Koshiw and Shaun Walker, “CIA director says Russia’s Ukraine invasion is a failure,” The Guardian, 09 September 2022
Kate Abnett and Ingrid Melander, “EU to claw back energy firms' profits rather than cap Russian gas price,” Reuters, 10 September 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “‘Nothing is decided’: EU energy ministers clash over price cap on Russian gas,’ The Guardian, 09 September 2022
Press Briefing on the situation in Ukraine – Matilda Bogner,” ohchr.org09 September 2022
President of Ukraine, Baykar CEO discuss cooperation in defense sector,” president.gov.ua09 September 2022
Statesmen of Latvia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia honored on Alley of Courage in Kyiv,” president.gov.ua09 September 2022
Ukrainian army one of those with largest number of female soldiers – Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 09 September
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9,” Critical Threats, 10 September 2022         
Andrea Shalal, “Rebuilding Ukraine after Russian invasion may cost $350 bln, experts say,” Reuters, 09 September 2022
Russia makes grain promise to poorest nations,” RT, 09 September 2022
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council,” kremlin.ru09 September 2022
A queue of refugees lined up on the border between Russia and the Kharkiv region,” LENTA.RU09 September 2022
The authorities of the Kharkiv region urged residents to leave the battle zone,” ria.ru10 September 2022
NATO Secretary General and U.S. Secretary of State address NATO’s strong response to Russia’s war on Ukraine,” nato.int09 September 2022
Poland says Ukraine ready to offer power as coal alternative,” AP News, 09 September 2022
Latvia confirms rules on EU tourist visa restrictions for Russians,” eng.lsm.lv, 09 September 2022
EU makes it harder for Russian tourists to enter bloc from Monday,” Reuters, 09 September 2022
EU ministers agree statement in support of additional €5 billion assistance for Ukraine,” consilium.europa.eu, 09 September 2022
Isobel Koshiw and Shaun Walker, “CIA director says Russia’s Ukraine invasion is a failure,” The Guardian, 09 September 2022
Kate Abnett and Ingrid Melander, “EU to claw back energy firms' profits rather than cap Russian gas price,” Reuters, 10 September 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “‘Nothing is decided’: EU energy ministers clash over price cap on Russian gas,’ The Guardian, 09 September 2022
Press Briefing on the situation in Ukraine – Matilda Bogner,” ohchr.org09 September 2022


09 September 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #302

Queen Elizabeth: End of an era | War in Ukraine: Day 197

Photo : Hulton/telegraph.co.uk, BBC Archive, Hulton Archive, Fiona Hanson – PA Images, The Duke and Duchess


EM Comment
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 08 September, UK’s Queen Elizabeth II who took the throne in 1952 passed away at the age of 96 in Balmoral Castle, Scotland. With the passing of the Queen, the next in line King Charles III has become the next monarch of the UK. As the head of the state for UK, 14 countries including Australia and Canada, she has reigned from the period of Winston Churchill till the appointment of Prime Minister Liz Truss, marking 70 years. Her role included “opening the new session of Parliament, granting Royal Assent to legislation, and approving Orders and Proclamations through the Privy Council.” She had a specific role in the UK parliament, through audience with Prime Ministers, advice to the government and had the right to consult, encourage and warn during the audience.

From a princess to the Queen: The Elizabethan era
Queen Elizabeth was born in central London on 21 April 1926, who was only a young princess until the eldest son Edward VIII of King George V renounced the title, making her father George VI the King. Her famous lines during the first overseas tour to South Africa in 1947: “My whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service and to the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong.” In late 1951, during her tour to East Africa, Kenya which was a British Colony was where she immediatly became Queen Elizabeth after the death of King George VI from cancer. After the coronation in 1953 which was televised for the first time, was symbolled as the post war recovery. Her tour from Bermuda to Australia as Queen was seen as a historical moment with Ghana becoming independent and India turned 10 years in 1957.

With the British empire shrinking, in 1965 Zimbabwe challenged the Queen and declared independence, followed by economic turbulence which struck the UK in 1970’s. This shook the reputation and image of the monarchy, showing it as more aggressive, vulnerable to stresses. After from the economic shock, the Queen faced criticism over the personal exemption from paying income taxes. Next set of criticism arose over the split of Prince Charles and Diana in 1992, her death in 1997, followed by Charles’s reveal of his relationship with Camilla Parker-Bowles. But through the difficult economic situations, and family diversions, the Queen continued to perform her duties, which became evident in 2002 with the celebration of 50 years of her reign. By 2015, Queen Elizabeth became the longest ruling monarch exceeding the period of Queen Victoria and commemorated her platinum jubilee in 2022.

Eight major decisions
First, the 1956 Suez crisis. When Israel invaded Egypt in 1956 in the interest to capture the Western part of Suez Canal and Egypt President General Nasser nationalised one of the busiest shipping routes to free Egypt from Britain’s influence. Britain and France along with Israel launched attacks as it was an important trade route to transit to its empires and a source for oil. Queen’s stance on the intervention was not pro-Suez and Britain’s move was reported to be disapproved.

Second, in 1965 her first visit to Western Germany after the second world war for forming an understanding, and mend ties between Britain and Germany for the losses from the war. She also joined the Women's Auxiliary Territory Service.

Third, the dress-downs in opening of new UK Parliament. The Queen who wears the robe, comes in golden carriage, imperial state crown and a traditional Queen speech during the opening of new parliament, has so far dressed down twice. One, where former Prime Minister Edward Heath was defeated in a snap election by the labour leader, Harold Wilson in 1974. Two, after 43 years, when former Prime Minister Theresa May called for snap elections in 2017.

Fourth, the 1998 abolition of By-Elections for hereditary peers. In the 1998 speech, Queen announced the removal of traditional rights of 700 hereditary peers in the House of Lords.The hereditary members of the house were initially replaced upon death, resignation, and expulsion through “By-Elections.” Upon the new bill such replacements were abolished, allowing vacancies to lapse. 

Fifth, in 1999 the Queen opened the national assembly in Wales and Scottish Parliament. Despite the advice from the Home Office to the Queen in opening the Welsh Assembly, as it felt the absence of “a clear political direction” the Queen went strong to open the Assembly. Similarly recognizing Scotland’s politic and laws, the Queen opened the Scottish Parliament giving it the law-making powers.

Sixth, Queen’s first visit to Ireland in 2011 since its independence in 1921 was marked historic. The hand shake was seen as new step to Anglo-Irish relations, breaking through the old past of death of Lord Mountbatten, who was killed by McGuinness party member. It marked the triumph of peace process, winning all the critics over monarchy.

Seven, another important shift in the royal accession rulebook was the relaxing of gender norm and Catholic factor in 2013. The changes were, regardless of the gender, the eldest daughter of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge can become the Queen. Next, was the removing of the law over the marriage of future monarch from any faith, and not being specifically Catholic.

Eight, the Queen’s last appointment of new Prime Minister Liz Truss replacing Boris Johnson takes place in Balmoral Castle on 06 September instead of Buckingham Palace upon doctor’s suggestion to rest.


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

SWEDEN
18-year-old gets life sentence for the murder of two teachers
On 08 September, an 18-year-old student who killed two teachers in a secondary school in Sweden was sentenced to life in jail. Fabian Cederholm committed the crime on 21 March and used knives and an axe for the attack. He is believed to be the first 18-year-old to to be granted a life-sentence in Sweden, which is normally a minimum of 20-25 years in prison. As justification for the sentence, Judge Johan Kvart called the attacks particularly ruthless and said: “These are two very brutal murders where the victims greatly suffered and experienced severe fear of death.” (“Life sentence for Swedish teen for killing teachers with axe and knives,” BBC, 08 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Taxi drivers across Europe protest against Uber in Brussels
On 08 September, taxi drivers across Europe gathered in front of the European Commission’s Berlaymont building in Brussels to protest against the ride-hailing platform Uber. The protests are a fallout from the Uber Files investigation that gained ground in July, documenting how Uber evaded regulations to increase its presence in many European cities. The company had collaborated with France’s president Emmanuel Macron to expand its business. The protestors came from Spain, Switzerland, Italy, and other countries, citing how due to Uber, taxi drivers across Europe were suffering. Due to a lack of response from their own governments, the protestors are demanding that the EU take the necessary action. In terms of EU’s response so far, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament are investigation a proposal by the European Commission to reclassify up to 4.1 million workers, including Uber drivers, as employees instead of as independent contractors. (Hanne Cokelaere, “European taxi drivers block Brussels in Uber Files protest,” POLITICO, 08 September 2022) 

2022 becomes the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe
On 08 September, the European climate observation service Copernicus reported that the June to August of 2022 was the hottest to be recorded in Europe. The rise in average temperature was noted in the frequent heatwaves and the extensive drought conditions across the continent. In terms of increase from 2021, the average temperature was more by a margin of 0.4 degrees Celsius. As compared to 2018, August was hotter by 0.8 degrees Celsius. August was drier than average across most of Western and Eastern Europe, while Scandinavia and parts of south and south eastern Europe experienced more rainfall than average. (Antonia Zimmermann, “Summer 2022 was Europe’s hottest on record,” POLITICO, 08 September 2022) 

European Central Bank raises interest rates again to tackle inflation
On 08 August, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rise in Eurozone interest rates. The ECB raised all its key rates by three-quarters of a percentage point and warned that rates could rise again later in 2022. The first rise in interest rates in the last 11 years was in July. These rapid rises in rates are to combat the rising inflation in the Eurozone, which has been due to the coronavirus pandemic and then Russia’s war in Ukraine. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that since they cannot control the high energy prices, rising the interest rates was one of the only ways to encourage people to borrow and spend less and thus save more money. (“Eurozone interest rates in record rise to fight inflation,” BBC, 08 September 2022)

North Atlantic Council promises to support Albania against future cyberattacks
On 08 September, the North Atlantic Council released a statement regarding the cyberattack against Albania. The council acknowledged Iran as the perpetrator of the attack and condemned the efforts to destabilize the security of any member-states or allies. It promised to assist Albania in strengthening its cyber defence capacities so that they can overcome such attacks in the future. The Council said that they promote a free, open, peaceful and secure cyberspace and thus will support each other to defend and counter the “full spectrum of cyber threats.” (“Statement by the North Atlantic Council concerning the malicious cyber activities against Albania,” NATO, 08 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 197
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
On 08 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Ukraine’s budget for 2023 would be a war budget. He outlined five issues that the new budget will be looking at. First, around USD 27.4 billion will be dedicated to military and security spending. Second, it will aim to ensure all of Ukraine’s social obligations like providing pensions. Third, the new budget will look to reduce all non-critical state expenditures to “withstand difficult times and ensure financial and social stability.” Fourth, economic relations within the country will be intensified to help businesses, save jobs and attract new employees. Fifth, the new budget will look into the establishment of a special recovery fund at the expense of Russian assets that have been confiscated. 

Zelenskyy spoke about the Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine’s Army General Staff referred to the same and said that a massive operation was underway. He urged citizens and service personnel to not release details of the counteroffensive. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have advanced 40 kilometers into the occupied territories in Kharkiv. Three to four armoured brigades, with T-72 tanks, artillery pieces and rocket artillery systems have been stationed in the Kharkiv centre to carry on the counteroffensive. 

On the same day, Ukrinform reported on a statement released by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, warning citizens of fake online platforms discrediting Zelenskyy. The ministry said that these platforms were in use in Western Europe and contained fraudulent fundraising options claiming to be for aid to Ukraine. The press service said: “The project resembles a classic Ponzi scheme. We call on Ukrainians and the international community not to trust Russian fakes and to take into account information exclusively from the official platforms of the President of Ukraine and the Office of the Head of State.” 

On 08 September, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry said that 43.9 per cent of Ukraine’s agricultural imports are going to Asian countries. The Ministry informed that that around 2.37 million tonnes of agricultural products have been exported so far, of which around 1.04 million tonnes have been sent to Asia. Around 0.47 million tonnes have been sent to Africa. However, additionally two ships chartered by the UN World Food Programme has left for Yemen and Ethiopia to provide aid the critical food security conditions in the two states. Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Minister, Mykola Solskyi addressed the import of grains, saying that a monthly increase of 20-30 per cent has been reported in export volumes.

On 07 September, Ukraine’s Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories said that Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk will head the newly formed coordination headquarters for “deoccupied territories.” The main function of this headquarter will be the restoration of territories liberated from the enemy and the reconstruction of civil infrastructure in these areas. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 September, Russia’s Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin said that Russia’s federal budget for the next three years would be under stress. However, he assured that the main tasks of the state would be fulfilled successfully. The head of the Cabinet, Mishustin said this in an interview aired on Rossiya-24 TV channel to commemorate the 220th anniversary of Russia’s Ministry of Finance. While he issued the warning about how forming the budget would be difficult because of the international sanctions against Russia, he said: “We will certainly cope with these tasks and emerge from this crisis stronger, more professionally prepared. We will succeed.”

On the same day, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Polina Kryuchkova spoke about the existing apprehension that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant sanctions would affect the economy severely, resulting in a 10-20 per cent fall. However, she assured that by the end of 2022, the Russian economy is expected to shrink by not more than three per cent. Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov reiterated Kryuchkova’s statement. According to him, Russia’s GDP will lose 2 per cent in 2022 and in 2023 the decline will be limited to one per cent. 

On 08 September, the head of the International Centre for Joint Initiatives, Alexey Kalachev said that the Western sanctions on Russia will give an impetus for a better relation between China and Russia. Speaking on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), Kalachev highlighted that due to the existing sanctions, Russia is now looking to establish greater contact with China in spheres like farming, car manufacturing, IT technology and construction. At the EEF, several deals have been signed between Chinese companies and Russia. For example, the largest construction company in the world by revenue, China State Construction Engineering Corporation signed a deal with Russia, for the development of sites in Moscow and St. Petersburg by 2024. Deals were inked with resources developer NFC and Sunny Machinery Factory. Kalachev, whose company was set up to coordinate deals between Russia and foreign firms under sanctions, estimates that while the trade turnover in 2021 between the two countries reached USD 146 billion, if the current pace of cooperation is maintained, it might reach USD 200 billion by 2024.

On the same issue, Kommersant business daily reported that China had increased the import of Russian energy and raw materials, while their imports for tech exports have not seen a similar growth. Between January to August 2022, China imported USD 72.9 billion worth of goods, which marks a 50 per cent increase from the same period in 2021. Kommersant, said that among all of Russia’s trading partners, China’s import structure was one of the least diversified, thus hinting at more scope for collaboration.

The Secretary-General of the ruling United Russia Party, Andrey Turchak proposed a new date to hold referendums in territories occupied by Russia in Ukraine. He suggested that fixing Russia’s Day of National Unity on 04 November to hold the votes would be “right and symbolic.” On the issue of reunification, Turchak said: “Donetsk, Luhansk and many other Russian cities will finally return to their home port. And the Russian world, now divided by formal borders, will regain its integrity.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 08 August, NATO members and other Western delegates conducted a US-led Ukraine Conference at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Participants discussed the sustenance of military and financial aid to Ukraine. NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg warned that the participating countries must be prepared for the upcoming winter months, keeping in mind that Russia is unlikely to give up its “goal of taking control of Ukraine,'' soon. He pointed out that the winter will be tough for Ukraine, as with the increase in Ukraine’s army, there is an increased need for winter uniforms, electricity generators and other equipment like tents. On providing assistance to Ukraine, Stoltenberg said: “NATO will pay a price but we must stay the course on Ukraine.” German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht promised that Germany will deliver these materials to Ukraine. Lambrecht with Netherland’s Defence Minister, Kajsa Ollongren announced that they will train Ukrainian soldiers on mine detections and clearing. The participants at the Summit praised Ukraine’s army for the on-ground defence.

At the same conference, US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin announced a new package of USD 675 million in military assistance to Ukraine. The new round of supplies will include more MLRS, ammunition, military vehicles and anti-tank systems. Commenting on the new assistance, Austin said: “Just looking around the table, I can see our unity of purpose… We must evolve as the fight evolves.” The new military assistance is a part of the larger USD 2.7 billion approved by US for long-term assistance for Ukraine as investments. This is expected to increase the security of Ukraine and 18 more neighboring countries against the risk of future Russian aggression.

On the same day, Poland announced that they will join Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in restricting the entry of Russian citizens into its territory. In a statement, the government said: “It is unacceptable that, while people in Ukraine are being tortured and murdered, citizens from the aggressor state (Russia) can travel freely within the EU.” The measure will enter into force from 19 September is aimed to prevent Russians from using these countries as transit points to travel further into Europe.

On 07 September, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan alleged that the West was provoking Russia. Erdogan believes that the war is unlikely to end “anytime soon” and thus it was imperative for countries not to underestimate Russia. In a press conference with Serbia’s president, in Belgrade, Erdogan said: “I can clearly say that I do not find the attitude of the West [toward Russia] right” 

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 08 September, Japan and India agreed to expand their military cooperation. In the same context, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi referred to Russia’s war on Ukraine, increasing assertive actions from China, especially about Taiwan and the nuclear threats from North Korea. Hayashi thus pointed out an increasing need for India and Japan to ramp up their security cooperation. The Foreign Ministers and Defence Ministers of the two countries met in Tokyo to discuss the same. In a statement released after the meeting, the four ministers said that India and Japan will collaborate on the development of unmanned ground vehicle technology and will further discuss areas of future cooperation in defence equipment. Both reiterated their commitment to establish a “free and open Indo-Pacific vision," to counter China’s aggrandizement efforts in the region.

On 07 September, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi said that despite international ostracization, India will improve their ties with Russia. In an online address at the Eastern Economic Forum, Modi praised the “Act Far-East Policy” launched by India in collaboration with Russia. He indicated to a “special partnership” between the countries, especially on energy and coking coal. India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri put forward a similar stance in an interview with CNBC. He said that India will consider the proposal to set a price cap on Russian oil, but there were no moral obligations for India to sign it. He said: “No, there’s no conflict. I have a moral duty to my consumer. Do I as a democratically elected government want a situation where the petrol pump runs dry?”

References
The draft state budget for 2023 will provide more than UAH 1 trillion for the security and defense sector - Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua08 September 2022
This week we have good news from the Kharkiv region; I think every citizen feels proud of our warriors - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua07 September 2022
Stefan Korshak, “UAF Lunges Forward in Kharkiv sector, Advance 30 km, Serious Russian losses Reported,” Kyiv Post, 08 September 2022
Russian intelligence creates fake website to discredit Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 08 September 2022
Ukraine has exported 44% of agricultural products to Asian countries,” Ukrinform, 08 September 2022
Ukraine increases grain exports by 20-30% every month – Solskyi,” Ukrinform, 07 September 2022
Vereshchuk to head coordination headquarters for deoccupied territories,” Ukrinform, 07 September 2022
Mishustin: Russia will become stronger after this crisis,” TASS, 08 September 2022
Mishustin announced the "difficult" budget for the next three years,” TASS, 08 September 2022
The decline of the Russian economy was assessed,” LENTA.RU08 September 2022
Sanctions offer opportunities for Russia and China, official tells RT,” RT, 08 September 2022
China Ups Russian Imports, Keeps Exports Level – Kommersant,” The Moscow Times, 08 September 2022
Russia Ruling Party Proposes Nov. 4 Annexation Votes For Occupied Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 08 September 2022
'Winter is coming' to Ukraine, warns NATO chief at Ramstein summit,” Deutsche Welle, 08 September 2022
Lili Bayer, “US approves $675M more in weapons for Ukraine,” POLITICO, 08 September 2022
Patrick Jackson, “Ukraine war: US approves $2.6bn in aid for Ukraine and allies,” BBC, 09 September 2022
Sergiy Voloshyn and Simon Lewis, “Blinken visits Ukraine to offer new US military aid for counteroffensive,” Reuters, 08 September 2022
Poland joins Baltic states on new limits to entry of Russian nationals,” Reuters, 08 September 2022
Wilhelmine Preussen, “Erdoğan accuses West of ‘provocation’ toward Russia,” POLITICO, 07 September 2022
Mari Yamaguchi, “Japan, India to step up arms drills, technology cooperation,” AP News, 08 September 2022
Karen Gilchrist, “India’s PM Modi says he’s keen to boost ties with Russia, including energy,” CNBC, 08 September 2022


08 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #301

Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East | War in Ukraine: Day 196

Albania sever diplomatic ties with Iran; WMO report suggests wildfires causing bad air quality; New leader Liz Truss unveils energy subsidy plan; The US-UK trade talks under peril if Liz Truss undermines NI protocol

Photo : Kremlin.ru


EM COMMENT
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
By Padmashree Anandhan

About the Eastern Economic Forum 2022
On 07 September, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin gave an address at the 7th Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok. The forum was conducted from 05 to 08 September under the theme “Towards a multipolar world,” focusing on areas of cooperation in the Far-East regions of Russia, especially the Asia-Pacific, ASEAN countries, and international investment companies to boost economic growth.

Two major deals signed by Russia were between Mongolia and Myanmar. First, Mongolia’s “Policy of new revival” where the goal is to strike cooperation in 50 projects under six areas such as border checkpoints, energy, industry, green development, and enhancing state operations. This development goal will incorporate Russia and China’s programme to involve its investors and high-performing companies. The end goal is to make Mongolia a leading country in Asia in societal, economic, and security factors. Second, Russia and Myanmar signed nuclear cooperation roadmap for 2022 to 2023. Under the agreement, Rosatom and the Ministry of Electric Power of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar will draft the lines of cooperation in the nuclear sector and produce a legal framework for establishing modular reactor projects in Myanmar.

Putin’s Statement: Three Takeaways
First, warning over grain deal. Putin highlighted the unresolved food crisis problem. Where out of the 87-grain export ships only two had been transported to Africa, comprising three per cent of 60000 tonnes, whereas the remaining were sent to European countries. Although sanctions on Russia’s food and fertilizers have been removed by the West as per the deal, the restrictions over logistics, transit, money transfer, and insurance still exist challenging Russia’s exports to the rest of the world. Another drawback for Russia pointed out by Putin was the missing regulations in the grain deal over destinations of the exports. Putin stressed that, in the upcoming November negotiation where parties will get back for discussing the extension, Russia is expected to bargain on exporting to the poorest countries to prevent the rise in food prices and famine.

Second, a stable economy and an advantageous Asia-Pacific. With the widening crunch in terms of economic, financial, and technology, Putin assured Russia’s stability in the market and indicated decreasing inflation. He said that despite the lowest employment rate, issues in industries, and individual industries' impact due to the withdrawal of western companies, several countermeasures have been taken to stabilize its economy. Another advantage Russia holds is the Asia-Pacific cooperation, where many states have been excluded from following the Western sanctions benefitting both economies. Some of the significant project collaborations between Russia and the Asia-Pacific have been in modern technologies, infrastructure developments, oil, natural gas, mining, geological exploration of raw materials, logistics, and the development of north-south and sea corridors. On the question of whether Russia has lost as a state in the Ukraine war and if it could still afford its expenses. Putin said: “I am sure that we have not lost anything and will not lose anything.” He added that Russia will aim to reinforce its sovereignty and Russia’s position at the domestic and foreign policy levels. 

Third, criticism against the West. Putin accused the West of imposing its own “models of behaviour,” and the dominance of the US to influence the world’s economy and politics. He pointed out that despite, Asia-Pacific countries becoming the center for technological, economic, capital, and personnel, the interference from the West has led to global inflation. Mainly through sanctions, norms, Euro-Atlantic unity, short-sighted decisions, and lack of vision of the Western elites have pushed the European economy into a troubled sphere, pushed down the quality of life for Europeans, dropdown in competitive business enterprises, and thereby price rise of food and energy products.

Who else took part in the EEF 2022
Leaders from Myanmar, Armenia, Mongolia, China, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam participated in the forum. Apart from the leaders, delegations from South Korea, Japan, Kazakhstan, diplomatic corps from 25 countries, international business personnel, and experts around the world took part in the discussion.

The key address was provided by the Prime Minister of the Interim Government and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Myanmar Min Aung Hlain, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Mongolia Luvsannamsrein Oyuun-Erdene, and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China Li Zhanshu. While the virtual address was provided by Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of Malaysia Ismail Sabri Yacob, and Prime Minister of Vietnam Pham Minh Tinh.

Min Aung highlighted the brewing issues of Myanmar in food insecurity, fuel, and agricultural products and how the financial challenges faced by developing countries can be met through the use of rubles, yuan, and rupee currencies. He called for investors to increase their investments to push up the partnership amongst the eastern countries to avoid western influence and promote the development of ASEAN.

Oyuun-Erdene spoke on Mongolia’s problem in accessing the sea and the land-locked positions which have led to many border checks and conditions limiting its economic growth. He proposed three areas of collaboration. First, the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to China via Mongolia to keep the economies “united.” Second, more investments towards establishing an eastern vertical railway line linking Russia, China, and Mongolia. Third, energy project partnership for meeting domestic needs, exporting electricity and producing green energy through partners from Russia and China.

The representative from China agreed on the growing Sino-Russia relations and Russia’s support for Xi Jinping's global development and global security initiatives. He highlighted the key economic cooperation over the Northern Sea Route which is expected to boost cooperation between Chinese firms and Russia’s Far East in terms of maritime transport. Providing the trade value between China and Russia's Far Eastern Federal District, Northeast Asia has become a prime region for cooperation between both.


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

ITALY
Industrial compound outside Milan catches fire
On 07 September, a massive fire broke out at the Nitrolchimica company, a chemical plant outside of Milan. The company deals with solvent recovery and hazardous waste disposal and has liquid solvents in large quantities, which is suspected to be the fire's origin. Three people were seriously injured, and 15 suffered minor injuries. The smoke emerging from the fire could be seen 10 kilometers away from the burnt site. Fire brigades were called to the area. During the initial investigation, there were no signs of environmental hazard but the situation is expected to change depending on the speed of the clean-up and the weather. (Elizabeth Schumacher, “Italy: Major fire, injuries at chemical plant outside Milan,” Deutsche Welle, 07 September 2022)
 
THE UK
Government plans to hand out North Sea oil and gas exploration licenses
On 07 September, according to two sources, the UK government is expected to announce the issuance of dozens of North Sea gas and exploration licenses to increase domestic energy production. One source could not confirm the number of licenses, while the other speculated the total to be around 130. Liz Truss, the UK’s newly appointed Prime Minister, had said in the leadership campaign that the solution to the rising energy prices was to boost domestic production. The decision to issue licences will be taken on 08 September 2022. The exploration will span around five to 10 years before the production starts, which does not seem to be a immediate relief to the rising energy prices. (“Exclusive: UK to announce dozens of new North Sea oil and gas licences -sources,” Reuters, 08 September 2022)
 
Energy subsidy plan introduced by Liz Truss
On 07 September, Prime Minister Liz Truss, announced the final details of her plan to tackle rising energy bills. The new plan is likely to cool the inflation but would increase the borrowing of the country up to GBP 100 billion. Her plan to ease the economic conditions of households and businesses that are likely to face a recession next year will make the UK take a loan. The tax cut promised is deemed to cost the UK government around GBP 179 billion. But Truss remains firmly against windfall taxes from profiting energy companies. The Sterling dropped down for the first time since 1985 due to economic hardships in the country. (Alistair Smout and David Milliken, “New UK leader Liz Truss finalizes huge power subsidy plan,” Reuters, 08 September 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE 
Wildfires contribute to degrading air quality says WMO
On 07 September, Deutsche Welle explained a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on wildfires. The report mentions that wildfires worsen air quality, and the consequences for human health and the ecosystem were labeled as "climate penalty." Phenomenon of climate penalties is declining air quality due to the wildfires caused by prolonged and intense heatwaves and drought. The WMO report focused on wildfire smoke in 2021 when wildfires across western North America and Siberia increased the particulate matter, which is harmful to humans. According to the report, climate change has caused the degradation of air quality by the emission of greenhouse gases during wildfires. It also suggested that the key to reducing heatwaves and wildfires is through worldwide carbon neutrality and urged the developed countries to fund better air quality than having large budgets for fossil fuels. (“Stuart Braun, “Extreme wildfires pollute the air people breathe,” Deutsche Welle, 07 September 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Iran found guilty of hacking Albanian government websites 
On 07 September, Albania cut ties with Iran after an investigation of July cyberattacks on the country’s digital infrastructure revealed that it was state aggression and not carried out by an individual or independent groups. The staff of the Iranian embassy in the capital city of Albania, Tirana, were given 24 hours notice to leave the country. A group known as HomeLand Justice claimed credit for the attack initially. The investigation involving Albania, Microsoft and the FBI discovered that the attack on the Albanian government’s digital services and websites being temporarily shut down was the works of four groups the Iranian government was sponsoring. Since 2013, Albania has been hosting the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, an organization that opposes the current Iranian regime. The two countries have clashed since then. (“Albania breaks diplomatic ties with Iran over major cyberattack,” Euronews, 07 September 2022)


War in Ukraine: Day 196
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground

On 07 August, Ukraine’s nuclear operator, Energoatom, said that it supports the deployment of UN peacekeepers in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Which has been under Russia’s control since March. The attacks have sparked the fear of nuclear disaster, and thus Energoatom Chief Petro Kotyn welcomed a peacekeeping contingent at the plant. Kotyn also reiterated “...the immediate establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone,” as mentioned in the IAEA report, and called for withdrawal of Russian troops. He also welcomed the two members of the 14-member IAEA team who are to remain in Zaporizhzhia permanently to monitor the plant's safety. 

Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry signed a memorandum with Poland on building a cross-border pipeline to transport vegetable oils from Ukraine to Gdansk in Poland. A working group will be set up soon to work on technical details for the construction of the pipeline and the two terminals.

On 07 September, Ukrinform reported on ‘How to Ensure a Military Campaign in 2023: Ukrainian Perspective’ by the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and a representative of the Verkhovna Rada, Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi. Where, Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi speak about how the war in Ukraine has moved beyond a medium-intensity conflict in terms of military forces involved, types of weapons used, duration of the conflict, and other spatial indicators. They also mentioned the various directions that Russia’s offensive has taken. From establishing control till the administrative border of the Donetsk Region, advancing in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and making another attempt to seize Kyiv would be Russia’s main goals from the war. Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi named the problems that Russia might face in their offensive like international isolation, economic pressure due to the sanctions, difficulties with general mobilization, and the lack of modern weapons and equipment. Although Zaluzhnyi claimed responsibility for attacks on Russian air bases in Crimea. Till now, Ukraine had just hinted on its involvement in the Crimea strikes. However, the senior military chief has now accepted over Ukraine's strikes, including those at Saky military facility, were conducted “… to physically transfer hostilities to Crimea.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 September, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addressed the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum. In a speech, Putin expressed his delight in hosting business leaders, experts, politicians, public figures, and members of government from countries across the world. He spoke about various political and economic issues that Russia is dealing with. Referring to the sanctions, Putin criticized the West for how they were attempting to “extinguish the sovereignty” of other countries and trying to popularize the Western narrative. He said that the US’s dominance in the global economy and politics was waning, and Europe was also wasting its development and growth due to these sanctions. Putin mentioned how the sanctions have triggered global inflation but how Russia's inflation rate was declining, unlike the Western countries. He referred to the diminishing trust in the dollar, euro, and pound sterling. He added Gazprom and China’s agreement to switch to 50/50 transactions in rubles and yuan for gas payments. 

With regards to Ukraine, Putin said that Russia has made gains from Ukraine and that he does not intend to lose anything in their operation. On the proposal to cap oil and gas prices, he said that Russia would not supply gas, oil, coal, or heating oil if price caps were introduced and did not suit Russia’s interests. On the visa restrictions against Russian citizens, Putin maintained that they should act in a way that serves their interests. His advice was not to get involved in reciprocating the visa ban but to expand the practice of visa-free entry to Russia for more tourist groups, as that would benefit Russia. 

On the same day, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, claimed that the grain deal with Ukraine, allowing Russia to deliver fertilizers and food products to global markets, had failed. Nebenzia said that no Russian vessels had left ports in Ukraine with grains, despite the agreement. He also hinted that since their provisions are not being fulfilled, Russia could refuse to extend the deal, with ends in November. 

On 06 September, Russia’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, spoke about US President Joe Biden’s comment opposing Russia’s identification as a state sponsor of terrorism. Peskov said that Biden’s sentiment was a “good thing.” However, he found that Biden being asked such a question was “horrendous” and “very difficult to wrap one’s mind around.” Peskov warned that such statement was not an indication of a softer stance by the US.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 September, Liz Truss, after assuming the Office of the UK’s Prime Minister, spoke to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. She reiterated her support for Ukraine’s freedom and democracy and said that Zelenskyy would have her full backing. The leaders discussed the need to strengthen global security and Putin’s attempts to weaponize energy. 

On the same day, the European Commission proposed to suspend the EU’s Visa Facilitation Agreement with Russia entirely. If the proposal passes, Russian citizens will not be able to access the EU easily and will have to follow a more protracted and expensive visa application process. They will also lose the privilege of multiple entry visas in the Schengen area and must submit more documentary evidence when applying for a visa. The Commission has also presented a proposal not to recognize Russian passports issued in the occupied areas of Ukraine. Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson said that this move was necessary as Russia continues to violate international laws, which breaches the principles of the Visa Facilitation Agreement. 

On 07 September, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia agreed to ban the entry of Russian citizens from Russia or Belarus to enter their countries. Exceptions will be made only for humanitarian and family reasons, lorry drivers, and diplomats. The announcement comes after several weeks of deliberations by EU countries regarding the increased Schengen Visa application from Russian tourists. On the increasing border crossing by Russians, Latvia’s Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said, “…This is becoming a public security issue; this is also an issue of a moral and political nature.” 

On the same day, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke about the EU’s gas market and prospects. She outlined three major steps decided by the EU. First, the demand reduction of gas, which had been a success with joint storage of 82 per cent, has already been created. Second, to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels, which the EU has been working hard to implement. Third, to refocus on investing in renewables. However, Von der Leyen said that Russia's manipulation of the gas market was having a spillover effect on the electricity market, which was compounded by other factors like heatwaves and droughts. She thus outlined immediate measures that the EU could implement. First was the smart saving of electricity, whereby a mandatory target would be set to reduce electricity use at peak hours. Second, a price cap would be placed on revenues of energy-producing and fossil fuel companies so that consumers can benefit from the low costs of energy sources. Third, liquidity support will be facilitated for Member states to help the companies deal with the volatility of the markets and fourth, lowering the cost of gas by cutting Russia’s revenues. In this context, Von der Leyen mentioned that the EU was succeeding as at the beginning of the war, 40 per cent of the imported gas was from Russia, while the number now is down to nine per cent. 

NATO and Allied forces are maintaining a military presence in the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to monitor Russian warships. So far, they have three Russian naval ships- Slava-class cruiser Marshal Ustinov, the Udaloy-class destroyer, and a support ship. Regarding the activity, Admiral Stefan Pauly from Germany, a commander with NATO’s surface forces, said: “It creates overall maritime awareness and contributes to the safety of navigation for the international maritime community.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war


After the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission visit to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, called for a demilitarised zone around the plant. In an address to a UN Security Council session, he supported the recommendations put forward by the Director of the IAEA, Rafael Mariano Grossi. Guterres urged Russian and Ukrainian forces to cease military operations near the plant. 

On 07 September, Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, reported that Myanmar would be buying petroleum products from Russia. Hlaing mentioned they were expecting the first diesel delivery in a few days. He also confirmed that Myanmar would pay Russia in whatever currency they accept to ease the supply for both states.

On 07 September, the Prime Minister of Mongolia, Luvsannamsrein Oyun-Erdene, met Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum. Putin welcomed Oyun-Erdene and spoke about how Mongolia and Russia have a long diplomatic relationship. The leaders discussed the logistics of supplying Russian gas to China through Mongolia at the forum. They also spoke about their collaboration in several infrastructural projects like the Ulaanbaatar railway, which runs through areas rich in mineral resources and metals. 

On the same day, the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) issued a brief statement on the agreement with Russia’s gas company Gazprom. According to the agreement, China will pay Gazprom half in Roubles and half in Yuan for Russian gas supplies through the Power of Siberia Pipeline. The move is an extension of the 30-year contract signed between Russia and China for the supply of 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year.  The CNPC Chairman, Dai Houliang, met Gazprom Chairman Alexey Miller to figure out the details of the transaction. Miller noted that this arrangement would be a “mutually beneficial, timely, reliable and practical decision”. Gazprom, however, said that the technical parameters of the arrangement had not been discussed yet.

References
Ukrainian Nuclear Operator Suggests UN Peacekeepers in Zaporizhzhia,” Kyiv Post, 07 September 2022
Ukraine to transport vegetable oils to Poland through pipeline,” Ukrinform, 07 September 2022
General Staff not rule out continuation of hostilities in 2023,” Ukrinform, 07 September 2022
Ukraine military chief claims responsibility for strikes in Crimea,” Reuters, 07 September 2022
Eastern Economic Forum plenary session,” kremlin.ru, 07 September 2022
Putin speaks at forum in Russia's Far East region,” Reuters, 07 September 2022
Kremlin comments on Biden’s reluctance to blacklist Russia,” RT, 06 September 2022
Moscow sounds alarm over Ukrainian grain deal,” RT, 07 September 2022
Putin opposes tit-for-tat visa restrictions,” TASS, 07 September 2022
Prime Minister Liz Truss's call with President Zelenskyy: 6 September 2022,” gov.uk, 06 September 2022
Camille Gijs, “Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania to restrict entry of Russians,” POLITICO, 07 September 2022
NATO monitors Russian warships in the North Sea,” nato.int, 07 September 2022
Commission proposes full suspension of Visa Facilitation Agreement with Russia,” ec.europa.eu, 07 September 2022
Statement by President von der Leyen on energy,” ec.europa.eu, 07 September 2022
UN calls for demilitarised zone around Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” The Guardian, 07 September 2022
Myanmar Buys Diesel Fuel From Russia, Junta Chief Says,” The Moscow Times, 07 September 2022
Meeting with Prime Minister of Mongolia Luvsannamsrein Oyuun-Erdene,” kremlin.ru, 07 September 2022
Russia's Gazprom, CNPC agree to use rouble, yuan for gas payments - Gazprom,” Channel News Asia, 07 September 2022


07 September 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #300

War in Ukraine: Day 195

Germany to keep two nuclear power plants open; Hungary to set up an anti-corruption body; Liz Truss becomes 56th UK Prime Minister; France to reopen pipeline to supply gas to Germany

Photo : IAEA


War in Ukraine: Day 195
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

War on the Ground

On 06 September, the advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President’s office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said in his tweet that since 40 days of the attack on Olvenivka prison, accused Russians for not letting the UN and the ICRC visit the site. He blamed the Russians for planting the attack on the Azovstal defenders at the Olenivka prison in the Donetsk region. 

On the same day, during the nationwide telethon, Natalia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Coordination Press Centre of the Defence Forces of South of Ukraine, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are improving their position along the front line and are impeding the Russian army, especially their logistics. The UAF keeps Russian transportation arteries under check and exposes any movements in the active region, which has made it difficult for the Russian army to redeploy troops.

On the same day, Kyiv Post reported that Ukraine’s Black Sea port city, Odessa, was preparing for a harsh winter fueled by the Russian invasion and rising energy prices. Odessa Regional Military Administration announced on 30 August that it was ready for heating in the winter season by 80 per cent. Kyiv Electric Networks which has been renovating 900 energy facilities in the region had repaired 600 kilometers of power transmission lines of various voltage levels. The houses without meters are now found to be facing difficulty in paying for the heating as their electricity bill are very expensive. Another problem in Odessa is the growing consumer debt before the winter season. The debt had already exceeded UAH one billion, and the government had forbidden the collection of debts from citizens for housing and communal services under martial law during the summer. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 September, upon UN releasing the report on Zaporzhzhye nuclear power plant Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia expressed regret over IAEA’s. He accused it for not disclosing the responsible party for shelling the nuclear plant despite Ukrainian General Staff’s claim on targeting Energodar, which is located in the north-western area of the plant.

Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov pointing to the grain deal, said that the western countries had not withdrawn the sanctions yet on Russian grain and fertilizers, which was part of the negotiation of the grain deal. He blamed the West for not fulfilling the promises made during the signing of the grain deal. Russia issued a warning stating it will not start back the oil supply through Nord Stream pipeline unless the sanctions are lifted. Till now the energy prices have soared in UK, England, Wales and Scotland.

On 06 August, TASS reported on the poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. A survey was held to know the public support for Russia in its special military operation in Ukraine. In the poll, 1600 Russians were picked randomly where the support was found to be high ranging from 70 -73 per cent. According to the people, 39 per cent viewed it as a defence for Russia, and as a preventive strategy to keep the NATO’s military base away.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

The NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting held in Germany. The meeting is being organized by the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, to discuss on the Ukraine crisis and security threats to NATO and its allies.

On 06 September, the European Commission reported on the results from the 2022 Standard Eurobarometer survey. As per the findings, the EU citizens trust over EU’s response to Russia was observed to be increased. Especially in terms of investments in renewable energies, reducing dependency from Russia, and approval rate of the Euro. But there was a high concern towards the deteriorating economic situation amongst the citizens. At the national level, issues relating to inflation, cost of living, and energy supply were high per centile concerns.

On 06 September, BBC reported on the crisis faced by Russia in keeping up its military hardware due to cornering sanctions. As per report from the US, Russia is expected to purchase millions of rockets and artillery from North Korea due to severe shortages. It predicts that with increasing sanctions and export restrictions Russia’s military, training operations were affected.

On 06 September, The US Defence department’s spokesperson said that Russia was trying to request ammunition and missiles from North Korea and Iran. Brigade General Pat Ryder added that Russia is desperately searching for ammunition to withstand the war in Ukraine. The information obtained by the US suggests that the Russian army is facing difficulties in the ongoing war and is reaching out to what the US deems rogue nations like North Korea and Iran due to a severe supply shortage. Russia has already bought drones from Iran and aims to strike a deal to get artillery rounds from North Korea.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

Also on 06 September, IAEA released its report on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The report said that the Russian occupation of the power plant had caused continued destruction to the complex, hindering emergency response from the staff. Although the report does not indicate the perpetrator of the attack. It provides safety guidelines for the ZNPP and advises establishing a nuclear safety and security protection zone immediately to avoid any nuclear disaster. A team of IAEA experts led by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi had gone down to the ZNPP to check up on the atomic reactor after the shelling by both Ukraine and Russia. 

References
No international missions allowed to Olenivka following Russian terrorist attack - Podolyak,” Ukrinform, 06 September 2022
Transportation arteries in south under fire control of Ukrainian troops,” Ukrinform, 06 September 2022
Ugo Poletti, “Odesa Prepares for Harsh Winter,” Kyiv Post, 06 September 2022
Yonhap, “Russia asks N. Korea for ammunition, indicating challenges in Ukraine war: Pentagon,” KoreaHerald, 07 September 2022
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 6,” ISW, 06 September 2022 
Moscow accuses West of breaking ‘grain deal’ pledge,” RT, 06 September 2022
Russia comments on IAEA nuclear plant report,” RT, 06 September 2022
Russia blames sanctions for gas pipeline shutdown,” BBC, 06 September 2022
Poll shows Russian public support for special operation stably high over six months,” TASS, 06 September 2022
NATO Secretary General attends Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting,” nato.int, 06 September 2022
Eurobarometer: Trust in the EU on the rise, amid strong support for the EU's response to Russia invasion of Ukraine and energy policies,” ec.europa.eu, 06 September 2022
Ukraine war: North Korea supplying Russia with weapons, says US,” BBC, 06 September 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GERMANY
Germany to keep two nuclear power plants functional 
On 05 September, Germany’s Economics and Climate Protection Minister, Robert Habeck said that Germany will keep two nuclear power plants on standby to prevent an energy shortage in the winter. Germany had originally committed to phasing out the power source by the end of this year. However, the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s responses to the sanctions have increased Germany’s risk of an energy shortage. The announcement came after a stress test was conducted on the country’s electricity grid, following the summer droughts, the nuclear power problems faced by France, and the current crisis of the energy market in Europe. After the test, Habeck informed that while there was no imminent danger of major shortages, Germany will keep the Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim plants open to prevent a crisis in the winter. (“Germany to keep two nuclear power plants on standby in case of energy shortage,” Euronews, 06 September 2022)

HUNGARY
Hungary to introduce anti-corruption body to unlock EU funds
On 06 September, in the government’s official gazette, Hungary said that it will create an anti-corruption authority and a network of non-governmental organizations to supervise the spending of European Union funds. The European Commission, which has been withholding funds allocated to Hungary as a part of their COVID-19 recovery plan because of deadlocks on issues like corruption, migration, LGBTQ rights, and democratic standards. As a response, the anti-corruption body will be set up. The government will introduce the bill in parliament by 30 September and expects the body to be functional by 21 November. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas said that through this body, Hungary will install a “stricter than ever” and transparent system for the use of EU funds. (“Hungary to set up anti-corruption body in bid to unlock EU funds,” Reuters, 06 September 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
Dutch agriculture minister resigns as protests rage on
On 06 September, Netherlands’ Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality Minister, Henk Staghouwer resigned after a series of protests by the country’s farmers over pollution regulations. The lucrative agriculture sector has been in crisis since 2019 after a court ruling ordered to slash emissions of nitrogen oxide produced by livestock by 50 percent by 2030. Since then, protests have taken place against the forced downsizing or closure that many livestock farms will face if the ruling comes into force. Before tendering in his resignation, Staghouwer, who has largely been unsuccessful in dealing with the protests, said that he was not the right person for the job. Prime Minister, Mark Rutte tweeted his appreciation for him and said that he respected Staghouwer’s decision to step down. Former Dutch agricultural minister Carola Schouten will temporarily take up the office. (Sofia Stuart Leeson, “Dutch agriculture minister resigns as nitrogen row simmers,” Euractiv, 06 September 2022)

THE UK
Liz Truss takes over from Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister
On 06 July, Liz Truss took over the office of the UK’s Prime Minister from Boris Johnson. She is the 56th Prime Minister of the UK and the third female to do so. After the transfer of responsibilities, Truss appointed a top team diverse in gender and ethnicity. Kwasi Kwarteng is appointed as the first Black Chancellor of the Exchequer; James Cleverly is the Foreign Secretary, and Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary. Therese Coffey is also the first female deputy prime minister. Truss inherits a series of tasks from Johnson, like curbing soaring prices, especially energy, and fixing the national health care system that is burdened by long waiting lists and staff shortages. She has also promised to boost the economy and ease the labor unrest in the country. After assuming office, Truss spoke to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden. Truss’s office said that she spoke about the Ukraine war and defense cooperation with both Zelenskyy and Biden, and with Biden, she also discussed economic issues and maintaining the British-Irish Good Friday Agreement. (Danica Kirka and Jill Lawless, “New UK PM Truss vows to tackle energy crisis, ailing economy,” AP News, 07 August 2022)

REGIONAL
France preparing to supply gas to Germany in exchange for power for the upcoming winter
On 06 September, representatives from the energy ministry said that France will reactivate a disused pipeline in the northeastern Moselle administrative department, to supply gas to Germany. This pipeline was originally built for east-west flows, but will now deliver up to 20 terawatt hours (TWh) of gas, over the winter to Germany. Germany has also agreed to provide France with power if the supply gets narrowed. France’s state-run power company EDF (EDF.PA) is grappling with a record number of nuclear reactor outages that are aggravating the energy crisis. Germany also is apprehensive that the low volumes of Russian gas can lead to severe winter shortages. The collaboration comes after the sanctions on Russia are exacerbating the energy crisis in Europe. The reopening of the Moselle pipeline is thus an effort to present a united front against Russia’s actions. (Elizabeth Pineau and Caroline Pailliez, “France preparing disused pipeline to supply more winter gas to Germany,” Reuters, 06 September 2022) 


01 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #295

War in Ukraine: Day 189

Germany’s EUR 9 tickets scheme ends; Germany agrees to compensate Munich Olympics victims; FBI team sent to investigate Montenegro cyberattack; Boris Johnson’s report card

Photo : Vadim Savitsky/Russian Defence Ministry/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 189
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground

On 31 August, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Georgia’s Foreign Minister Ilia Darchiashvili at the informal EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Prague. In the meet they discussed eastern partnership and bilateral relations between Ukraine and Georgia. 

On the same day, the employees of the Ukrainian energy firm that looks after Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Energoatom, welcomed officials from the IAEA who arrived at Zaporizhzhya for an inspection of nuclear plant. The energy company wants the IAEA push Russia for demilitarization of the ZNPP area. It also wants IAEA to notice all the violations the Russian troops have caused in the complex.

Also on 31 August, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence reported that the Russian Defence Ministry is recruiting conscription officers from Moscow and Leningrad regions. The mobilization of soldiers from Buryatia, Tuvan, the republics of the Caucasus, and other unfavourable parts of Russia is seen to be exhausted. To replenish the troops in Crimea, Russia is trying to recruit from Moscow and Leningrad regions. The recruitment also extends to private armies and mercenary soldiers like the Wagner group. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 30 August, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that the country would retaliate against the EU's decision to suspend the bloc's visas to Russians except for humanitarian purposes. He also said that there would be consequences to the EU's withdrawal from the visa facilitation agreement. The EU would open its arms to the citizens of Russia who are against the government's decision to invade Ukraine.  

On 31 August, the strategic command post exercises Vostok-2022 began with an opening ceremony at the Sergeyevsky training ground in the Primorsky Region in Russia. Fourteen countries will participate in the training, including India, China, Azerbaijan and others. The exercises are focused on improving the military capabilities of the forces of each country that takes part in it. The exercises will be held from 01 to 07 September.

On the same day, saboteurs who had intentions of conducting a terrorist attack on the inspectors from the IAEA, who had come to Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant to check up on it after shelling the region, had been apprehended by the Russian officials who resided in the invaded area. Arms and ammunition were discovered with them.

Also, on the same day, Russia banned the entry of 55 high-ranking Canadians as a reply to the sanctions imposed against it by the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The 55 officials were permanently barred from entering Russia. The actions by Russia were also retaliation for the Russophobic behaviour of Canada.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 31 August, EU Foreign Ministers gathered to discuss the visa ban for Russians and the eighth set of sanctions. With ambiguity still remaining over countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland which share border with Russia unclear, imposing a blanket ban on Russians is still a challenge for the EU. According to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, EU's executive council will look ways to find solution for the already issues 12 million Schengen visas. But France and Germany stand against the decision. In a join memo: "We caution against far-reaching restrictions on our visa policy, in order to prevent feeding the Russian narrative and triggering unintended rallying-around the flag effects and/or estranging future generations."

The UK's Ministry of Defence reported on how the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushing back the Russian military. It also highlighted on Russia attempts in replenishing its troops in Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 30 August, Syria received S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. According to a Israeli satellite company, the supply of the missiles is viewed as a way to boost the air-defences against Ukriane. Russia which has held its military in Syria since 2015, continues to use Turkiye straits to ship its weapons through civilian ships into Syria.

On 01 September, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Finance Ministers of the G7 countries will agree on price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products on 02 September. The final mechanisms of the restriction are expected to take place by December.

References
Dmytro Kuleba met with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Ilia Darchiashvili,” mfa.gov.ua, 31 August 2022
Energoatom, “The demilitarization of the Zaporizhia NPP,” Telegram, 31 August 2022
Desperate Russian Army Forced to Recruit from Moscow,” Kyiv Post, 31 August 2022
Russia promises retaliation over EU visa move,” RT, 31 August 2022
Vostok-2022 strategic military exercises start in Primorsky Region,” TASS, 31 August 2022
Ukrainian saboteurs plotted nuclear plant attack – officials,” RT, 31  August
Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry on the imposition of personal sanctions against a number of Canadian citizens,” mid.ru, 31 August 2022
Matt Murphy, “Nord Stream 1: Russia shuts major gas pipeline to Europe,” BBC, 01 September 2022
Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 August 2022,” Twitter, 31 August 2022
"EU complicates travel rules for Russians but baulks at visa ban," Reuters, 31 August 2022
First InvestEU project in Germany: €60 million for construction of affordable and energy-efficient flats,” ec.europa.eu, 31 August 2022
1st UN food ship from Ukraine docks in Africa, 2nd sets sail for Yemen,” Daily Sabah, 30 August 2022
G7 finance ministers to approve oil prices ceiling plan on September 2 — newspaper,” TASS, 01 September 2022
"Russia ships S-300 air defense missiles from Syria to Crimea," Daily Sabah, 30 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GERMANY
Germany’s EUR nine travel ticket scheme comes to an end
On 31 August, Germany's EUR nine transit scheme for internal travel ended. From June, people in Germany who used regional or local public transport as many times as required, at a fixed rate. A total of 52 million tickets have been sold due to this scheme. Introduced to support citizens with the rising prices fuel and transport prices, the tickets cost the federal government over EUR 2.5 billion in subsidies. Though the German Transport Association said that the scheme would lead to a reduction of 1.8 million tonnes in carbon dioxide emissions, the estimation remain to be disputed. However, the move was a political and social success as in August, 17 per cent of users switched from personal to public transport. (Jenny Hill, “Germans say goodbye to summer of €9 travel tickets,” BBC, 31 August 2022)

Germany to compensate families of Munich Olympics victims from Israel
On 31 August, BBC reported on Germany agreeing to a compensation deal with relatives of the Israelis killed during the 1972 Munich Olympics. On 05 September 1972, eleven Israeli athletes were taken hostage inside the Olympic village by Palestine’s Black September militant group. Two of them were killed immediately, and the rest were killed during a gun battle with West German police at a nearby airfield. As compensation for the incident, Germany agreed to a EUR 28 million deal with the families of the victims. It has also offered to declassify documents related to the hostage-taking and the botched rescue operation On this issue, Germany’s president Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that he was “happy and relieved” to have reached an agreement on historical clarification. Israel’s president Isaac Herzog said that it was an important step by Germany’s government. (Malu Cursino, “Munich Olympics massacre compensation deal struck,” BBC, 31 August 2022) 

MONTENEGRO
FBI team to look into Montenegro cyberattack
On 31 August, Montenegro’s Internal Affairs Ministry announced that a team of FBI cyber experts will come to the country to investigate the massive, coordinated attack on the government and its services. A combination of ransomware and distributed denial-of-service attacks were conducted on Montenegro’s government services and state infrastructure. Because of the attack, the online government services remained unreachable, and the state’s electrical utility switched to manual control; water supply systems and transportation services were also affected. The Director of the Directorate for Information Security, Dusan Polovic, mentioned that 150 computers were infected with malware, at a dozen state institutions. A cybercriminal extortion gang that included Russian speakers claimed responsibility for part of the attack. They said that a ransomware called Cuba was used. The Agency for National Security in Montenegro blamed the attack on Russia, though it did not provide any evidence. However, officials maintain Russia has motive for the attack, as Montenegro, a former Russia-ally, joined NATO in 2017. It also joined the western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. (Predrag Milic, “FBI’s team to investigate massive cyberattack in Montenegro,” AP News, 31 August 2022)

The UK
BBC released report on Boris Johnson’s pledges
On 31 August, BBC released an analysis about UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s time in office and if he has been able to deliver on his pledges. First, Johnson had pledged the recruitment of more police, nurses, and general practitioners (GP). In terms of recruitment of police officers, the government is two-thirds of the way to its goal, with one year to go. In terms of nurses, almost half the total number pledged has been reached, while for GPs, numbers have actually decreased by 314. Second Johnson had also pledged to increase the number of hospitals by 40 and also add 30,000 more homes per year. Of these 40 hospitals, 22 were rebuilding projects, 12 were new wings, three were the renovation of urgent care units and 3 were new hospitals. One of the 40 hospitals opened for patients in 2021 and six projects are under construction. In terms of houses, 242,700 dwellings were added in 2019-20, while the number fell to 216,490 in 2020-21. Third, the Brexit. Which has been achieved, but many issues like the Northern Ireland protocol and various financial services still remain unresolved. Fourth, Johnson had promised to introduce the Australian-style points-based immigration system. This system has been installed, but the process has not been smooth-sailing. Fifth, economic reforms. No rise in rates of income tax, National Insurance, or VAT were some promises that Johnson made, but this manifesto was broken. The triple lock system for pensions has also been suspended. Only 0.5 per cent of the 0.7 per cent pledged gross national income has gone to international aid. Sixth, granting of full fiber broadband to all homes. While this manifesto was scaled back, there has been considerable progress on this with gigabyte coverage increasing from 10 percent in 2019 to 70 per cent. Seventh, in terms of dealing with COVID-19, the UK was the first country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine and had the fastest vaccine program until May 2021. In terms of growth in the G7, Johnson had promised to make the UK the fastest growing economy. While he managed that in certain timeframes, overall, the UK is in third place with 0.7 per cent growth. (“Boris Johnson resignation: Did the outgoing prime minister meet his pledges?,” BBC, 31 August 2022)

REGIONAL
European Commission adopts new rule to promote biological plant production products
On 31 August, the European Commission adopted new rules regarding plant production products. As per the new rules, availability and access to biological plant protection products will be increased. Micro-organisms will be approved for use as active substances and farmers will be introduced to new sustainable tools to replace chemical plant protection products. Though 60 microorganisms have been approved by the EU so far, stakeholders say that they are unable to access them due to maladapted regulation. The new rules will facilitate better scientific risk assessment of the microorganisms leading to faster authorization and usage. The move comes under the bloc’s flagship food policy called the Farm to Fork strategy, which aims to cut the use of chemical pesticides in half by 2030, thereby also improving the organic sector. The EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, Stella Kyriakides hailed this new development and said: With these new rules, we will ensure that biological alternatives can reach our farmers even faster… facilitate this process by increasing the biological and low-risk alternatives on the market”. (Natasha Foote, “Commission adopts new rules to fastrack approval of biological pesticides,” Euractiv, 31 August 2022)

Baltic countries and EU officials take part in Sea Summit to decide on increasing offshore wind capacity
On 30 August, European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson too part in the Baltic Sea Summit in Copenhagen. Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, and Sweden took part in the summit and signed the Marienborg Declaration. According to the declaration, the countries commit to increasing the offshore wind capacity of the region by seven times up to 20 gigawatts by 2030. Von der Leyen gave her remarks about the summit and said that it was yet another effort to cut their dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels and also become climate neutral. If the targets set at the meeting are met, it will cover the energy consumption of six million households by 2030. In this regard, Von der Leyen mentioned it would exceed the total households in Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia combined and hailed it as “amazing.” (“President Von der Leyen and Commissioner Simson participated in the Baltic Sea Summit,” ec.europa.eu, 31 August 2022)

 


31 August 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #294

War in Ukraine: Day 188

Gorbachev passes away at 91; the UK deliberates on social house rent cap; MEPs suggest a blueprint for EU reform; Czech Republic to push Western Balkan agenda in the EU

Photo : BBC/institute for the Study of War


War in Ukraine: Day 188
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground

On 30 August, as part of the EU - Ukraine accession process, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy singed two laws agreeing to two conventions given in the association agreement after the parliament adopted the laws. As per the report in Ukrinform the Ukraine parliament adopted the law no.0166 “On Ukraine’s Accession to the Convention on the Common Transit Procedure.” Through this adoption, the European transit rules will now be applicable for Ukraine, with which enterprises can now use “single customs declaration and single guarantee” to transport the goods.

Zelenskyy met IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, where both discussed on the possible explosion risks in Zaporizhzhya power plant. Main stress by the President was on laying of demands by the UN to demilitarize the zone and to urge the Russian military to leave the unit. In his address, Zelenskyy remarked that US’s Himars missiles were helping the force change the course of action through targeting down numerous Russian ammunition depots, and bridges.

Intense fighting has been observed in Kherson between Ukraine and Russian forces, the key reason behind the tight hold on Kherson is due to three reasons. As reported in BBC, the strategic position of Dnipro River, helps to protect the Black Sea ports to continue the grain exports and a closer proximity for Russia and Crimea.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 30 August, Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov claimed the total Ukraine military loss during the offensive in Nikolayev-Krivoi Rog.  He said: “In the past 24 hours, in their effective operations the Russian forces eliminated 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other combat armored vehicles, 8 pickup vehicles with large-caliber machine-guns and over 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen.”

Over the US accusation of importing Iranian combat drones Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series to Russia, has been denied by both Iran and Russia. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the relation between Iran and Russia are becoming dynamic and continue to be. He said: “We’ve seen no indications of any sort of actual delivery and/or purchase of Iranian drones by the Russian Ministry of Defense.”

On 30 August, Gazprom announced its complete shutdown and stop of gas supply from 31 August to 03 September for maintenance. Till now the pipeline has been functioning under reduced capacity, although no serious malfunction is noticeable, the repairs are left to be done to restart the supply. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 30 August, with risk over the Zaporizhzhya power plant heightening, the EU announce on providing five million “anti-radiation tablets” to prevent the body from getting affected by radioactive iodine. Till now people residing within 50 kilometres have been given potassium iodide tablets on a protection basis.

On 29 August, the NATO Military Committee visited Germany, where representatives from Finland and Sweden joined to discuss on the future security challenges, NATO’s deterrence, defence posture and recalled the decisions taken during NATO Madrid Summit.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann during the cooperation discussion with Ukraine, assured on supporting Ukraine from corruption risks especially in the “post-war reconstruction process.” OECD which has been an active partner for Ukraine since 2014 will bring international countries closer in helping with the rebuilding of institutions and strengthen the anticorruption reforms. 

On 30 August, first grain shipment from Ukraine was unloaded in Djibouti. The ship, MV Commander contained 23000 tonnes of wheat from Ukraine as food aid to Ethiopia. Given the quantity, it is expected to be a supply for 1.5 million people. According to the WFP spokesperson: “We really need to see increased shipments coming from Ukraine, Russia and others in support of what is a very dire situation today in the Horn of Africa and across the region.”

References
President signs laws on accession to two conventions within ‘customs visa-free regime’,” Ukrinform, 30 August 2022
Domitila Sagramoso, “Why is Ukraine pushing to recapture Kherson?,” BBC, 30 August 2022
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: EU provides anti-radiation tablets to Ukraine,” BBC, 30 August 2022
Moscow responds to claims it received Iranian drones,” RT, 30 August 2022
Gazprom confirms Nord Stream shutdown,”RT, 30 August 2022
Ukraine’s military suffers over 1,200 casualties in failed offensive — Russian top brass,” TASS, 30 August 2022
NATO Military Committee visits Germany,” nato.int, 30 August 2022
OECD ready to help Ukraine eliminate corruption risks in post-war reconstruction process,” Ukrinform, 30 August 2022
Catherine Byaruhanga, “Ukraine grain ship with aid for Ethiopia docks in Djibouti, BBC, 30 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

RUSSIA
Former soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev passes away
On 30 August, former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev passed away at the age of 91. Gorbachev, who took power in 1985 and was largely credited for bringing the Cold War to an end. As the general secretary of the Soviet Communist Party his policies sought to revitalize the Soviet society. His policy of ‘perestroika’ to introduce market-like reforms to the state-run system and ‘glasnost’ promoted openness and criticism in the government. Even though he failed to prevent the collapse of the USSR, his impact on the global order was profound. Gorbachev had been suffering from a long and serious illness and in June 2022, he was admitted with a serious kidney ailment. However, the cause of his death has not been announced. World leaders like Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and EU president Ursula von der Leyen hailed his legacy and expressed their condolences following Gorbachev’s demise. (Matt Murphy & Robert Greenall, “Mikhail Gorbachev: Last Soviet leader dies aged 91,” BBC, 31 August 2022) 

THE NETHERLANDS
Workers’ strike destabilizes Dutch rail network
On 30 August, most of the trains in the railway network of the Netherlands were halted due to worker strike. The workers in labor unions who have been affected by the rising inflation and staff shortages and demanded improved working conditions and better pay, called for the strike. It follows the breakdown of negotiations on a new collective labor agreement. As the staff at the railway company Nederlandse Spoorwegen (NS) quit work in the central Netherlands which is a hub for almost all train lines, they successfully destabilized the entire network. AP News reported that the Utrecht Central station, which is Netherland’s biggest rail hub was deserted, but NS said that international trains operated by Thalys and Eurostar were running. (“Almost all Dutch trains halted by strike around Utrecht,” AP News  30 August 2022) 

THE UK
Government reaches agreement to revolutionize London’s transport system
On 30 August, UK’s government reached a settlement with the integrated body responsible for London's transport system, Transport for London (TfL). As per the settlement, projects worth EUR 3.6 will be supported, and it includes EUR 1.2 billion of upfront funding. The network will also be protected against the uncertainties arising from the post-pandemic demand and will aim to facilitate projects that revolutionize travel across London. For example, GBP 80 million every year will be given to active travel schemes; driverless trains will be introduced on the London Underground, and walking and cycling infrastructure will be developed to reduce pollution and congestion. The Mayor and the TfL will be working in collaboration to set out sectors in which changes can be implemented and accelerated. The settlement will also ensure that the TfL becomes financially sustainable by 2023. (“Future of London’s transport network secured with government’s multi-billion pound settlement,” gov.uk, 30 August 2022)

UK Government releases proposal on social house rent cap
On 31 August, UK’s government launched a consultation to ask housing tenants and landlords for the most favorable rent cap as a part of the Direction to the Regulator of Social Housing. In the UK, the government controls the rate at which social housing rents can increase in a year, and is currently set at the consumer price index (CPI) rate plus one per cent. According to recent Bank of England forecasts, the potential increase next year will be 11 per cent. As per the proposal, an increase of the rent cap of three per cent, five per cent, or seven percent is being considered. The new cap will help support the most vulnerable households, saving tenants approximately EUR 300 per year. The proposal comes as an addition to other existing support measures like the EUR 37 billion support package, including a EUR 150 council tax rebate, and EUR 400 discount on energy bills. (“Rent cap on social housing to protect millions of tenants from rising cost of living,” gov.uk, 31 August 2022)

REGIONAL
Members of the European Parliament release a new blueprint for EU reform
On 30 August, Euractiv reported on a blueprint for EU reform released by a group of Members of the European Parliament (MEP). The “Federal Europe: Sovereign, Social and Ecological,” manifesto was prepared by the federalist MEPs in the Spinelli group. The blueprint suggests an expansion of the EU’s competencies on health and tax policy and calls to make the European Pillar of Social Rights legally binding. Because of the rise in energy and food prices, it proposes “compensatory transfers” to households and small businesses, and to make the "EU Recovery Plan" permanent. Additionally, the proposal also calls for increased defence and security presence by the EU, including the setting up of the EU military headquarters and the establishment of a 5000-strong Rapid Reaction Force. On the blueprint, a green MEP and the president of the Spinelli group, Daniel Freund said: “We need a strong Europe to solve the big issues of our time: climate, security, protecting democracy and our values. The European Parliament agrees, citizens agree and civil society agrees. Governments need to deliver.” (Benjamin Fox, “EU army and support fund for energy crisis among new treaty reform proposal,” Euractiv, 30 August 2022)

Czech Republic’s EU presidency to push Western Balkan agenda
On 31 August, in an interview for the Euractiv Czech Republic, Czechia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ivana Hlavsova spoke about Czech EU Presidency goals for the Western Balkans. One of the most important terms of the agenda is the freeing visas for Kosovo as it had already met the conditions provided by the EU. Czech Republic also aims to eliminate the several bilateral issues in the West Balkans. Hlavsova mentioned how the plans for the same are already underway, with the unblocking of the dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia. She also referred to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s membership application and said that the country’s problem was unlike that of Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Hlavsova said that onus of achieving at least some of those tasks is now on Bosnia and Herzegovina whose accession talks can proceed only after they make the necessary changes successfully. The European Commission which made an assessment of its readiness in 2019 and given 14 major tasks to start accession talks. (Ondřej Plevák, “Czechia to push for Kosovo visa liberalisation during presidency,” Euractiv, 31 August 2022)

 


30 August 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #293

War in Ukraine: Day 187

Chancellor Scholz outlines possible EU reforms; Germany gains links to renewable energy; New commission to investigate wiretapping incident; European judges sue European Council over Poland

Photo : Weibo/SCMP


War in Ukraine: Day 187
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground

On 29 August, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba asked Sweden to supply Archer artillery systems, RBS-70 air-defences to support Ukraine’s artillery system. Highlighting the need in the briefing with the Sweden Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, he thanked Sweden for granting SEK 500 million as security aid to Ukraine.

On 29 August, Ukrinform reported on the satellite image released by Maxar Technologies (US space tech company) of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. It also reported on the departure of three ships carrying grains from Odesa and Chornomorsk. In a statement released by the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority: “Today, three ships left the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk, with 40,000 tonnes of wheat and corn sent to the ports of Egypt, Romania, and Turkey. By the end of the day, three bulk cargo ships are expected to arrive at the ports of Great Odesa to load wheat, sunflower, and corn.” The ships which have left on 27 and 28 August are expected to head towards Libya, Spain, Italy, Israel, Germany, Egypt and Turkey with wheat, corn and oil.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 August, the Russian military reported on shooting down of a Ukrainian drone which was predicted to target on Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant. According to the Defence Ministry, the attacks were seen as pattern to deter Russia-controlled facility. Till now the plant has been subject to repetitive artillery and drone attacks for past one week. 

On the recent “counter-offensive” action of Ukraine, the Defence Ministry commented that Ukraine’s offensive in the Kherson city was a failure and made no gains. As per RT’s report, the Russian troops were seen to have caused losses to the Ukraine force, with destroying 26 tanks, 23 armoured vehicles, and 560 troops.

On 29 August, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova denied the Russia talks over arranging the IAEA authorities visit to Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant. She criticized the UN for being unconstructive: “Many of them are pretending to have been persuading Russia to organize this mission for weeks or pretending that they have finally broken down Moscow’s resistance on this matter. It is an absolute lie, it is twisting of facts.”

The Defence Ministry claimed on the continuing attacks in Novaya Kakhovka, in the Kherson region by Ukraine forces. With the shelling, the power and water supply has now been affected, with damage to hydroelectric power plant. Previously, similar attacks were reported by Russia on Ukraine using HIMARS systems to shell the city.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 29 August, Lativa’s Ministry of Defense announced on further military aid to Ukraine amounting to EUR 300 million. The aid contains anti-aircraft missiles stinger, unmanned aircraft, self-propelled howitzers and anti-tank weapons. Along with the military aid, humanitarian aid is also been regularly supplied to Ukraine in the form of warm tactical clothing, footwear, and equipment for soldiers, and long-lasting food products. 

On 29 August, Norwegian government proposed to provide NOK two billion for Ukraine to ensure supply of natural gas in winter. According to Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre: “Ukraine has asked Norway to take a leading role in helping to ensure that it has access to energy. We are now following this up, and plan to provide NOK 2 billion to enable Ukrainians to purchase natural gas this autumn and winter.”

On 29 August, an informal meeting was held amongst the EU members in Hague Judgements Convention to discuss over “rule-based multilateral trade and investment.” The significance of joining the convention is seen as a way to boost European businesses, operate in different countries, wider trade and increased investment. Till now six states have signed the convention, with Ukraine joining the convention will serve as a base to benefit the citizens, businesses and international trade. 

On 29 August, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in his address disclosed the supply of high-end weapon systems and defence equipment to Ukraine which includes “air defence equipment, radar systems, reconnaissance drones,” accounting to EUR 600 million. He also mentioned the collaboration with the Netherlands on an initiative on delegating tasks to build Ukraine artillery and air defence.

The Gloabal Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 29 August, SCMP reported on the Russia’s decision to launch Vostok 2022 war exercises from 01 to 07 September. The drills will involve China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria and many ex-soviet countries. It will mainly focus on sea communications, marine economic activity and ways to support ground troops in littoral zones.

References
Kuleba calls on Sweden to provide Archer artillery, RBS-7 air defense systems, more artillery shells,” Ukrinform, 29 August 2022
Ukrainian drone downed over nuclear plant – Russia,” RT, 29 August 2022
Ukraine’s counter-offensive attempt has failed – Russia,” RT, 29 August 2022
Allegations that Russia was talked into organizing IAEA visit are untrue, diplomat says,” TASS, 29 August 2022
Ukrainian strike on Russian-held city cuts water and power supply – official,” RT, 29 August 2022
The European Union joins the Hague Judgments Convention,” European Commission, 29 August 2022
Germany to send air defense systems, radar systems, recon drones to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 29 August 2022
Latvia's military support to Ukraine amounts to EUR 300 million,” eng.lsm.lv, 29 August 2022
Norway to use NOK 2 billion to help procure natural gas for Ukraine.” regjeringen.no, 29 August 2022
Russia announces joint war games with China amid tensions with West over Kremlin’s action in Ukraine,” SCMP, 29 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
AI finds thousands of undeclared pools in France
On 30 August, BBC reported on how artificial intelligence (AI) was used to discover over 20,000 illegal swimming pools constructed in France, amounting to approximately  EUR 10 million in revenue. The software developed by Capgemini spotted pools on aerial images of nine French regions. Pools result in higher property taxes as they increase the value of the property. Under French law, they must be declared as an asset, and an average-sized pool of 30 square meters is taxed at around EUR 200 per year. The Deputy Director General of Public Finances, Antoine Magnant said that the software will be further used to detect undeclared home extensions, especially patios, gazebos, and verandas. Europe-Ecology Greens party’s National Secretary, Julien Bayou, said that a ban on new swimming pools might be considered, given the persistent drought conditions in the region. (“Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology,” Reuters, 30 August 2022)

GERMANY
Chancellor Scholz outlines reforms to support future expansion of the EU
On 29 August Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a speech at Charles University in Prague. He highlighted the EU’s need to consider reformation in its structures before allowing more memberships. On the EU's expansion, Scholz predicted the member states count to increase from 27 up to 36. For which he insisted three ways on a unified EU. First, the EU decision making process should be over majority of votes instead of unanimous voting. Second, to ensure the number of deputies in the European Parliament does not exceed 751. Third, the European Commission, which currently has 27 commissioners must be kept constant. Scholz suggested that when the next members join, they share a portfolio with another commissioner, instead of introducing new ones. (“German leader outlines vision for bigger, more coherent EU,” AP News, 29 August 2022; Laurenz Gherke, “Scholz pitches major EU enlargement — with reform,” POLITICO, 29 August 2022)

Germany collaborates with Denmark for link to Baltic Sea wind hub
On 29 August, Germany’s energy ministry announced that it had secured a power link to a planned offshore wind hub in the Baltic Sea. The Bornholm Energy Island that comes under Denmark’s part of the Baltic Sea will generate at least three gigawatts of power and will be connected to Germany through a 470-kilometer power cable. According to the energy ministry, the power generated in the hub would be enough to power 4.5 million German households and also reduce Germany’s energy dependence on Russia. Investment and future profits from the hub will be shared equally between Germany and Denmark. This project will come under Denmark’s Energy Vision 2030, whereby it plans to increase domestic offshore wind power production five times, by 2030. (“Germany secures link to planned Baltic Sea renewable energy island,” Reuters, 29 August 2022)

GREECE
Inquiry commission set up to investigate wiretapping scandal
On 29 August, 142 out of 300 Greece’s parliamentarians voted in favor to set up an inquiry commission to investigate the phone tapping of an opposition leader by the National Intelligence Service, the Ethnikí Ypiresía Pliroforión (EYP). Leader of the socialist party PASOK, Nikos Androulakis, whose phone was tapped for three months and targeted with Predator spyware, requested the inquiry commission. This incident has exerted pressure on Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis who took charge of the EYP from the interior ministry in 2019. He however said that he was not aware of the occurrence of phone tapping, and as a response to the mounting pressure fired his chief of staff, Grigoris Dimitriadis, and Greece’s spy chief, Panagiotis Kontoleon. (Helena Smith, “Greek ‘Watergate’ phone-tapping scandal puts added pressure on PM,” The Guardian, 28 August 2022; George Georgiopoulos, “Greek parliament sets up inquiry commission to probe phone tapping scandal,” Reuters, 30 August 2022)

POLAND
European Judges associations sue European Council over Poland’s recovery plan
On 28 August, four associations representing judges in Europe sued the European Council, in the EU’s General Court, regarding Poland's recovery and resilience plan. In June, the European Council approved Poland’s access to EUR 35 billion as a part of the COVID-19 recovery fund. However, the Association of European Administrative Judges (AEAJ), the European Association of Judges (EAJ), Rechters Voor Rechters and Magistrates Européens pour la Démocratie et les Libertés (MEDEL) challenged this move saying that Poland’s replacement of the controversial disciplinary chamber for judges falls short of the rule of law “milestones” that the EU requires. The associations said that since their legal action does not invalidate the Council’s decision, they would seek suspension of the disbursement of funds via interim measures. (“European judges challenge EU approval of Poland's recovery plan,” Reuters, 29 August 2022)

REGIONAL
European Commission president indicates “emergency intervention” in fixing electricity market
On 29 August, in the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia, European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen spoke about the rising energy prices in Europe and called for an “emergency intervention.” Which is required to bring the soaring prices down. Von der Leyen claimed that the current electricity market design which functions on the basis of marginal pricing had become obsolete in the current times. The soaring prices were thus exposing its limitations. She criticized how the price of gas often sets the final price of electricity. Referring to the electricity market’s restructuring, von der Leyen said: “That is why we, the Commission, are now working on an emergency intervention and a structural reform of the electricity market. We need a new market model for electricity that really functions and brings us back into balance.” (Jorge Liboreiro, “Energy crisis: Ursula von der Leyen calls for 'emergency intervention' in electricity market,” Euronews, 29 August 2022)


29 August 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #292

War in Ukraine: Day 185 & 186

Photo : AP Photo-DailySabah


War in Ukraine: Day 185 & 186
By Rishma Banerjee  

War on the Ground
On 28 August, Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry issued a statement about the cancellation of international haulage permits with Moldova. From 01 September, transport companies in Ukraine will be allowed to enter the Republic of Moldova under new simplified rules. The Ministry said that the ‘transport visa-free regime’ had been introduced with EU countries earlier and Moldova was the only neighbor who had not fully canceled the permits. Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said: “… our task is to make the most of the new opportunities in order to strengthen the economies of our countries in the face of the threats posed by the Russian armed aggression and the Russian politics as a whole.”

On 26 August, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry called on UNESCO for a response to Russia’s threat to parents in Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. The foreign ministry spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko spoke about how Russia was issuing threats about enrolling children in these regions to schools seized and controlled by Russia. According to Nikolenko, Russian authorities said that they will strip the parental rights of those who refuse to comply with the directive. 

On the same day, the Health Minister, Viktor Liashko reported on the purchase of iodine drug by the Ukraine government as a pre-emptive measure against an accident at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. The drugs is seen as a way to prevent affecting the thyroid gland from radioactive fallout has been stored in nearby medical facilities.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 August, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported that Russia’s troops had hit nine Ukrainian command posts in the DPR, Zaporizhzhya and Nikolayevskaya regions. Moreover, 52 artillery units and military equipment were also hit. The advances come after a few days of relative inactivity, where Russia’s forces could not make significant headways in terms of gaining territory in Ukraine. The Ministry also reported on the Vostok 2022 strategic command and staff drills that are scheduled for 01-07 September. The drills will be conducted under the Russian General Staff, to practice for the military security within the Eastern Military District. Over 50,000 troops will be a part of the drill and 5,000 items of armaments and military hardware, in particular, 140 aircraft, 60 combat ships, gunboats and support vessels will be used. The Vostok 2022 drill will also check the military preparedness of the command centres in planning on-ground and maritime operations, providing logistical support and controlling battlegroups. Other than Russia, the countries participating in the drill are China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. 

On the same day, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova spoke about the visit by the IAEA inspectors to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. She claimed that Russia was hopeful about the visit provided the mission can come through “the destructive influence on this process by the Kiev regime.” She also mentioned how Russia has been cooperating with the IAEA in planning the visit for months. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 28 August, Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock in an interview with Bild am Sonntag, reiterated Germany’s support for Ukraine. In the eventuality of the conflict continuing for years, Baerbock said: "Unfortunately, we have to assume that Ukraine will still need new heavy weapons from its friends next summer.” She also defended Ukraine’s right to Crimea, referring to how the international community had not recognized the 2014 annexation by Russia due to violation of international law.

As per a document seen by the Reuters, Germany’s ruling Social Democrats (SPD) party will propose the introduction of a discounted national transport ticket. The proposal will promote measures to assist people to deal with the rising energy prices. Two such packages had been introduced earlier, whereby transport ticket across Europe is EUR nine. However, the new package will include a similar ticket, but as a less discounted price of EUR 49 per month. Moreover, the proposal also envisages incentives for citizens to save gas, the protection of middle and low-income households from forced evictions and expansion of renewable energies.

On 28 August, NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg said spoke to Germany’s Welt am Sonntag about NATO’s presence in Arctic. He referred to Russia’s increased military activities in the region and about it reopening their soviet-era bases to station new weapons like hypersonic missiles. On 26 August, the US too announced its plans to establish the post of a new ambassador-at-large position for the Arctic. Moreover, Stoltenberg’s recent comments in Canada also indicate towards the West’s aspiration to improve their geopolitical position in the Arctic region.

On 27 August, UK’s Defence Ministry announced that it will be supplying Ukraine with underwater drones, to assist in clearing the mines along the coastline. These mines had been placed by Ukraine’s navy as a deterrent to advancing Russian ships. Six mine-hunting vehicles which can operate in shallow waters to depths of up to 100 metres will be dispatched to Ukraine, to detect, locate and identify mines. The Royal Navy’s Diving & Threat Exploitation Group in collaboration with the US Navy Sixth Fleet will be providing three-week training courses on operation of these drones.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 28 August, Daily Sabah reported on the status of the Black Sea grain initiative. Since August, over one million metric tonnes of Ukraine’s grains have been shipped. According to the Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul, 103 ships have set sail to or from Ukraine. As per the report, the WFP has also been successful in resuming wheat purchases from Ukraine to supply to the countries with the worst food security issues. The UN Coordinator, Amir Abdulla mentioned the need for more shipments to make room in the silos for the next harvest.

References
Ukraine, Moldova Cancel International Road Haulage Permits,” Kyiv Post, 23 August 2022
Ukraine terminates cooperation with Russia in nuclear power sector,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2022
Ukraine appeals to UNESCO as Russians threaten child abductions in occupied areas,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2022
Ukraine piles up on drugs needed in case of nuclear accident - health minister,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2022
The Ministry of Defense announced the defeat of nine command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Ukraine,” LENTA.RU, 29 August 2022
Vostok 2022 strategic drills to practice military security in Eastern region — top brass,” TASS, 29 August 2022
IAEA mission to Zaporozhye NPP to be held despite Kiev’s destructive course — diplomat,” TASS, 28 August 2022
Iran and Russia Are Cementing an Alliance With Grain, Drones and Satellites,” Wall Street Journal, 27 August 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Berlin will back Kyiv for 'as long as necessary',” Deutsche Welle, 28 August 2022
Germany's SPD plans new steps to ease energy price impact, document shows,” Reuters, 28 August 2022
UK donating undersea minehunter drones to help Ukraine clear coastline,” gov.uk, 27 August 2022
Lithuania to buy 37 kamikaze drones for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2022
UN says more grain must be shifted as Ukraine shipments top 1M tons,” Daily Sabah, 28 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

BELGIUM
Belgium Energy Minister warns over hike in gas prices
On 29 August, Belgium’s Energy Minister cautioned that the upcoming winters for next 10 years for the EU will be worst with increasing gas prices. Since the Ukraine war, the EU member states are challenges due to price hike in energies. The energy minister called for a EU-wide cap to prevent the rise in prices. While Germany is racing to complete filling its gas reserves before winter by 85 per cent before October, the set target is expected to be reached by September. (Alys Davies, “EU faces awful winters without gas cap – minister,” BBC, 29 August 2022)

SERBIA
Government calls off the Serbian LGBTQ march
On 27 August, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic cancelled the “Pan-European LGBTQ Pride” march which was scheduled in Belgrade, stating the country is midst of economic problems, far-right extremist threats and tension with Kosovo. The EuroPride event was to be organized by the the European Pride Organizers Association (EPOA) from 12 to 18 September. As far as the LGBTQ  lobby in Serbia, has been supportive of the individuals except the opposition party, who stand against the LGBTQ rights. But till now the pride marches in Serbia have taken place only with complete police guard. (“Serbia cancels EuroPride parade citing far-right threats,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2022)

REGIONAL
Serbia-Kosovo dispute settled over EU mediation
On 27 August, EU Foreign Policy Chief, Joseph Borrell announced the settlement agreement signed between Serbia and Kosovo over ethnic tensions on authorizing the identity documents. Borrell said: “Under the EU-facilitated Dialogue, Serbia agreed to abolish entry/exit documents for Kosovo ID holders and Kosovo agreed to not introduce them for Serbian ID holders.” With the signed agreement, now “all citizens” will be able to enter Kosovo using their existing documents. (“EU announces settlement in Serbia-Kosovo ID dispute,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2022)

Poland and Czech Republic agree to protect the airspace of Slovakia
On 27 August, Poland and the Czech Republic consented to protect Slovakia’s airspace as it withdrew from using Soviet-made MiG-29 jets from its airforce. The agreement to support Slovakia was signed by the Defence Ministers of Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Similar to the trio programme, air policing is in practice for Baltic states to deter Russian aggression. The MiG’s which are 11-year old will have to be renewed and estimated to be EUR 300 million which will help Slovakia to renovate its military. (“Poland, Czechia to protect Slovak airspace as Soviet-made jets retired,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
UN IGC fails to reach the global oceans treaty for fifth time
The UN Intergovernmental Congress fifth session concluded with no progress. The attempt by the UN to make its member states sign the Global Ocean’s treaty failed due to differences persisting over establishing marine protected areas, environmental impact assessments, finance, capacity building and sharing of marine genetic resources. Other key discussions also took place on deep-sea mining, fishing activities and shipping routes. IUCN’s Senior High Seas Advisor said: “What happens on the high seas affects our coastal communities, affects our fisheries, affects our biodiversity - things we all care so much about.” Therefore, the next session will be the next standing chance for closing the gap in signing the treaty. (Esme Stallard, “Efforts to pass global ocean protection treaty fail,” BBC, 27 August)

 


26 August 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #290

War in Ukraine: Day 183

France accuses UK of violating climate commitments; EU and US envoy meet Kosovo Serbs; Spain offers to host Colombian peace talks; Europe’s leaders to miss climate summit with African leaders

Photo : UNICEF/Anton Skyba for The Globe and Mail


War in Ukraine: Day 183
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav 

War on the Ground
On 25 August, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was shut down for a few hours for the first time since the start of its operation. The power grid supply was disrupted due to a forest fire at the ash pit of the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant (ZTPP). According to the Ukrainian energy corporation, Energoatom, ZNPP’s power is supplied by ZTPP and works for the restoration of the connection between the nuclear reactor's power units and the Ukrainian electrical grid was ongoing.

On the same day, Spain’s ministry of defence announced that Ukraine would receive an anti-aircraft battery and missiles, 1000 rounds of field artillery munitions, 1000 tonnes of diesel fuel, various armoured vehicles and 30000 winter uniforms from their government as military aid amidst the ongoing war.

On 24 August, Ukraine's ministry of environmental protection and natural resources reported that the country suffered damages to the environment worth UAH 395 billion at the hands of Russian troops during the six months of the invasion. The damages include UAH 106.3 billion to water resources, UAH 176.5 billion from air pollution and UAH 8.8 billion to the soil.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 25 August, the chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs and a member of the negotiating group said that his country is ready to resume talks with Ukraine if its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepts the invitation. He also noted that the previous talks ended in an inconclusive way due to the uncertain and inconsistent position of Ukraine.

On 25 August, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin signed a decree which stated that the country’s military would increase its size by 137000 troops from 01 January 2023. The decree also instructed that the armed forces will be expanded to 1.15 million soldiers and that the cabinet allocate necessary funds.
 
On 26 August, Russia’s Federal Agency of Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) reported that the southern and central regions of the country would face an extension of restrictions on flights at 11 airports till 04 September 2022. Russia had previously closed off parts of its airspace to civilian aircraft on 24 February 2022 to help with the special operation in Ukraine. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 25 August, NATO announced on its impact assessment of the recent breach of military documents. During the hack the military documents such as the blueprints of the weapons used by NATO were sold out by the hacker group. As per NATO’s statement: “We are assessing claims relating to data allegedly stolen from MBDA. We have no indication that any Nato network has been compromised.” As per BBC report, the leaked data was found to be “NATO CONFIDENTIAL” or “NATO RESTRICTED” categorised as high classified details. It contained the details of Land Ceptor CAMM (Common Anti-Air Modular Missile) and MBDA Missile Systems. Russian cyber criminals have claimed to be behind the hack and selling of the data.

France’s energy company “Total Energies” has come under accusation of France's transport minister for direct sale of fuel to Russia’s air force. The accusation comes after the findings of the NGO Global Witness’s investigation of a liquid gas condensate in Siberia being converted into a refinery for jet fuel by Russians. Which the Total Energies company controls and holds half of the field. Although the company has denied all the allegations, close to 40000 tonnes of fuel had been sent to Russia from February to July, as per Global Witness.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who will be stepping down soon, during his visit to Ukraine, stressed on the West to “stay on the course” although the energy bills, and living cost crisis. He also announced GBP 54 million as military package, which will include state of the art drones and loitering munitions to support Ukraine in surveillance and attacks.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

Citigroup bank announced the closure of the remaining branches and end its operations in Russia. The stop of the operations will mean termination for 2300 staff and transfer of western businesses out of Russia. On 25 August, according to Citi's chief executive Titi Cole: “It's clear that the wind-down path makes the most sense given the many complicating factors in the environment.” Apart from employment loss, the customer deposit accounts, investments and credit bills are set to be affected.

On 25 August, High Commissioner for Human Rights, Bachelet on the six months of Ukraine war, reported that close to 5587 civilians and 1000 children had been killed. On the Zaporizhzhia nuclear developments, she urged the parties to respect the international law and called for demilitarization of the nuclear plant.

On 25 August, the UN-partnered Cluster Munition Monitor civil society group released a report the threat posed by the cluster bombs on people. It found that since 24 February, 215 civilians had been killed from cluster munitions, it brough out the practicality of the Oslo convention which banned the production, use and transfer of cluster munitions. But  Ukraine war has been an exception to it. According to US Executive Director of Humanity & Inclusion, Jeff Meer: “Warring parties must immediately cease all use of cluster munitions, which have already killed or wounded hundreds of civilians in Ukraine this year. States must pressure countries that use cluster munitions to stop.”

References
 “The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) disconnected from the power grid for the first time in its operational history on August 25.,” ISW, 25 August 2022
Spain to Send Anti-Aircraft Battery, Armored Vehicles to Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 25 August 2022
Environmental Damage Caused by Russian Invasion Estimated at $10 Billion,” Kyiv Post, 25 August 2022
Russia vows to resume talks when Kiev is ready for them, says MP,” TASS, 26 August 2022
Putin orders Russian military to boost manpower,” RT, 25 August 2022
In Russia, again extended the regime of restrictions on flights to airports in the south of the country,” LENTA.RU, 26 August 2022
Joe Tidy and Benedict Garman, “Nato investigates hacker sale of missile firm data,” BBC, 25August 2022
Paul Kirby, “French oil firm TotalEnergies denies link to Russian jet supplies,” BBC, 25 August 2022
Ukraine war: Citi bank to close Russian branches,” BBC, 25 August 2022
Boris Johnson: Endure energy crisis to counter Russia in Ukraine,” BBC, 25 August 2022
Russia’s war with Ukraine needs to end, UN’s Bachelet urges Vladimir Putin,” BBC, 25 August 2022
Ukraine: Cluster munitions pose long-term risk to civilian safety,” BBC, 25 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FINLAND
Trial commences for three journalists in Finland in unprecedented press freedom case
On 25 August, Helsingin Sanomat began the trial for three journalists. Who have been charged with publishing classified defence information and the prosecutor has demanded a minimum of an 18 month suspension if found guilty. The two journalists and their former editor had published a report titled “Finland's most secret place” in 2017. It has been alleged that the report revealed national defence secrets like the location and tasks of an intelligence unit of the defence forces. The chairwoman of the Finnish Journalists Union, Hanne Aho said that this kind of trial was unprecedented in Finland, which is among the top countries in the global press freedom ranking published annually by Reporters Without Borders. The editor-in-chief of Helsingin Sanomat, Laius Niemi supported the journalists and said that they had not broken any law. (Anne Kauranen, “Three Finnish journalists go on trial in rare press freedom case,” Reuters, 25 August, 2022

REGIONAL
President Macron visit Algeria with the French delegation
On 25 August, France’s president Emmanuel Macron arrived in Algeria for a three-day visit. The agenda will be to mend France’s ties with Algeria, through the French delegation comprises 90 people, including seven ministers from his cabinet and several business leaders. Algeria being Africa’s biggest gas exporter, coincides with France’s efforts to secure more gas for itself before the winter months. Algeria’s president Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Macron will also discuss the issue of Russia being Algeria’s top weapons supplier and the withdrawal of French troops from Mali. (Hugh Schofield, “France's Emmanuel Macron to mend Algeria ties as energy crisis bites,” BBC, 25 August 2022)

France accuses the UK for violating environmental commitments
On 25 August, three MEPs from France claimed that the UK was neglecting environmental commitments by directing their raw sewage into the English Channel and the North Sea. The MEPs who are from the  En Marche party, called for legal and political action from the European Commission on the issue. They said that UK’s action was threatening marine life, the oceans and violating the terms of the UN conventions on protecting shared waters. The UK's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesperson however denied the charges. He said that since Brexit, the environment law in the country has been made even more stringent and thus it was “untrue” that the UK was not holding itself to water quality targets. (Elsa Maishman, “Sewage in sea: French appeal to EU over UK discharges of waste,” BBC, 25 August 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Spain offers to host peace talks for Colombia
On 25 August, Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez announced to host talks to secure peace. Sanchez recounted Spain’s longstanding relation with Colombia and referred to the historic 2016 deal between the government and the FARC guerrilla group. Through this visit, Sanchez is expected to renew the dialogue with the ELN guerrillas that was stopped by Ivan Duque’s government and to resume negotiations with the FARC and the Gulf Clan paramilitary group. Sanchez said: “We offer ourselves to the Colombian government to help in everything that I think is common sense to achieve peace… Spain would be willing and offers to host them.” (Fernando Heller, “Spain offers to host Colombian peace talks,” Euractiv, 26 August 2022)

Politico reports on the African climate summit
On 25 August, POLITICO reported on the upcoming Africa Adaptation summit at the Global Centre on Adaptation in September. Presidents from Senegal, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Gabon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia will be present at the meeting. They will be seeking the cash promised to them as a part of the commitments made at the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow, in November 2021. The summit will be of great importance to the African leaders as the financial assistance for climate adaptation will be a priority at the COP27 climate talks in November. (Karl Mathiesen, “European leaders to skip climate summit with Africa,” POLITICO, 25 August 2022)

 


22 August 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #286

War in Ukraine: Day 178 & 179

Germany’s economy minister rejects extension of nuclear power plants; Montenegro’s government falls; Serbia’s president asks NATO to protect Kosovo Serbs; UK port workers start strike; UN plans to reduce risk of tiny plastic nurdles in oceans

Photo : UK's worker strike BBC/ PA Media


War in Ukraine: Day 178 & 179
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 21 August, Ukraine’s military reported on the continued strikes in the ammunition depots in Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. While Russia attempted to improve its positions in Tavriysk and Oleksandrivka, Ukraine was successful in preventing Russia's advance. They also said that, in Bakhmut direction Russia could not make any progress despite using tube and rocket artillery seven times. 

In an interview with Ukrinform, Ukraine’s vice prime minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported on the total funds collected through UNITED24 platform for Ukraine. He said that more than USD 175 million had been raised from 110 countries in three months. Fedorov also mentioned that 60 per cent of the funds collected will go to the armed forces, medical assistance and the remaining for the reconstruction of the state.

On 20 August, President Zelenskyy warned Ukraine’s citizens to be vigilant due to upcoming independence day on 24 August. He said, “We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious.” As the Russian offensive is most intense in Kharkiv, curfew is expected to be till 24 August.

On 20 August, a drone strike was reported on Russia’s Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea. It was identified as SkyEye 5000 millimetre pro UAV. Ukraine refused to take responsibility for the attack. Russia-appointed Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev addressed the attack and said that security services in Sevastopol was ordered to operate on “high alert” mode.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov announced that the village of Sands, in Peski near Donetsk was freed from Ukraine’s armed forces. He said that following the occupation, Ukraine’s forces had abandoned their ammunition and left the post.

On 20 August, the defence ministry said that several soldiers who were on duty in Ukraine have been hospitalized with severe chemical poisoning. The troops were stationed near the Vasilyevka village in the Zaporizhzhya region. In the samples taken from the troops, traces of Botulinum toxin Type B were found. The toxin is an “organic poison of artificial origin.” The ministry said that the official confirmation about the incident will be sent to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

The US deputy treasury secretary, Wally Adeyemo spoke to Turkey's deputy finance minister, Yunus Elitas. Adeyemo informed Elitas about how Russian individuals and organizations were using Turkey to bypass the sanctions imposed on them by the West. Elitas assured that while Turkey is interested in maintaining good political and economic relations with both Russia and Ukraine, it will not allow violations of the sanctions.

On 19 August, UK's foreign ministry spokesperson said that Russia does not have the "moral right " to take part in the G20 summit while it continues its aggression in Ukraine. The statement comes after Indonesia's president Joko Widodo mentioned that Russia's Vladimir Putin has confirmed his presence at the summit to be held in November, at Bali.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 August, AP News reported on the pressure faced by IMF on the re-evaluation procedure to impose fees on the countries availing loans. Ukraine being one of IMF's biggest borrowers, there is the possibility of more countries applying for loans, given the rising food and energy prices and inflation. As the largest IMF shareholder, US can influence IMF's policy decisions and also unilaterally veto decisions.

The World Food Program (WFP) chief, David Beasley told AP News that the US will buy 150,000 metric tons of grain from Ukraine for an upcoming shipment of food aid. The shipment is six-times the amount of grain that the first WFP commissioned ship is carrying to the Horn of Africa. Beasley, mentioned that the destination of the grain was not confirmed yet.

On 20 August, China’s general administration of customs announced that in July, China which has purchased 7.42 million tons of coal from Russia. The number is higher than the 6.12 tons imported in June. The sanctions by the West has created more opportunities for Asian countries, especially China and India to buy more coal from Russia at highly discounted price. For example, Russian thermal coal traded at USD 150 per ton in July, while the same quality coal from Australia’s Newcastle port was priced at USD 210 per ton.

On the same day, TOLO News reported that according to the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI), the annual trade turnover with Russia has increased to USD 170 million. The ACCI mentioned that Russia’s market was attractive for Afghanistan and was good for exports. Afghanistan’s ministry of foreign affairs said that an afghan delegation will travel to Moscow to discuss the import of products from Russia.

References
AFU eliminate 75 invaders, destroy ammo depots in south,” Ukrinform, 21 August 2022
Ukrainian troops repulse 13 Russian attacks in area between Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” Ukrinform, 21 August 2022
Over UAH $175M already raised through UNITED24 platform – Fedorov,” Ukrinform, 21 August 2022
Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners down two Russians Kalibr missiles over Black Sea,” Ukrinform, 21 August 2022
We still need to fight for victory, but Ukrainians can feel proud of themselves, their country and their heroes – address of President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 20 August 2022
Russian offensive campaign assessment, August 20,” ISW, 20 August 2022
Senior Ukrainian Intelligence Official Found Dead,” Kyiv Post, 21 August 2022
An acquaintance of the daughter of the philosopher Dugin confirmed her death,” LENTA.RU, 21 August 2022
“Kadyrov announced the liberation of the village near Donetsk from the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” LENTA.RU, 21 August 2022
U.S. Treasury official warns Russia trying to bypass Western sanctions via Turkey,” Reuters, 21 August, 2022
Russia has no moral right to sit at G20, says Britain,” Reuters, 20 August 2022
Foreign influence efforts on the rise to make Singaporeans ‘take sides’, PM Lee Hsien Loong warns,” scmp, 21 August 2022
Russian coal exports to China smash five-year high,” RT, 20 August 2022
Amina Hakimi, “Afghan Delegation in Moscow for Trade Talks,” TOLO News, 20 August 2022
Fatima Hussein, “IMF fees on war-torn countries closer to elimination,” AP News, 20 August 2022
Cara Anna, “UN: US buying big Ukraine grain shipment for hungry regions,” AP News, 20 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GERMANY
Economy minister dismisses running nuclear power plants to save gas
On 21 August, during the government’s open-door day, Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck said that the nuclear power plants will not be used beyond their lifespans. Running the three remaining plants would save a maximum of two per cent of gas use. As a result, Habeck said it would not be worth reopening the debate about Germany’s exit from nuclear energy. Former chancellor Angela Merkel had initiated the legislation halting the use of nuclear power by the end of 2022 after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, but due to the rising energy crisis, the ruling coalition is divided on the matter. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that a decision would be taken by the end of August or the beginning of September, once the results of the stress test on the same are available. (“German economy minister rules out keeping nuclear plants running to save gas,” Reuters, 21 August 2022)

MONTENEGRO
Dritan Abazovic’s government falls after no-confidence vote
On 20 August, Montenegro’s parliament passed a no-confidence motion against prime minister Dritan Abazovic’s government. The motion which was passed by 50 of the parliament’s 81 deputies was to protest against the government signing a disputed deal that regulates the country’s ties with Serbia’s orthodox church. This marks the second no-confidence motion in 2022 in Montenegro, following the collapse of former prime minister Zdravko Krivokapic’s cabinet in February. After the motion, Abazovic said, "I am very proud of everything we have done in 100 days… We will be remembered as the government that lasted the shortest but which made the most difficult decisions." President Milo Djukanovic will now have to appoint a new prime minister-designate to form the government. (“Montenegro's parliament passes no-confidence motion on cabinet,” Reuters, 20 August 2022)

SERBIA
President Vucic asks NATO to “do their job” of protecting Kosovo Serbs
On 21 August, Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic called on NATO’s peacekeeping forces to “do their job” of protecting the interests of the Kosovo Serbs. Otherwise, Vucic warned that Serbia will be forced to take its own steps to protect the minority Serbian population in Kosovo. The comments came after the failure of EU-mediated negotiation between the two countries. Vucic also criticized NATO for increasing their presence in the northern part of Kosovo. Additionally, he said that he was not optimistic about finding a solution to the crisis as, Kosovo has rejected all "compromise solutions" that Serbia proposed. (“Serbia warns NATO over safety of Kosovo Serbs,” Deutsche Welle, 21 August 2022) 

THE UK
Workers at Felixstowe port start their eight-day strike
On 21 August, almost 2000 workers started their planned strike at UK’s biggest container port at the Port of Felixstowe. The port handles close to four million containers from around 2000 ships per year, which marks 48 per cent of the country’s incoming shipping freight. The workers taking part in the strike are demanding a pay rise and will continue the strike for eight days. The union organizing the strike, Unite said that the members had rejected a seven per cent pay offer from Felizstowe Dock and Railway Company, reasoning that it was below the rate of inflation. However, Port spokesman Paul Davey said: “We've got a shrinking economy, we're going into recession... I think that's a very fair offer indeed.” (Helen Burchell & Andre Rhoden-Paul, “Felixstowe: Dock workers strike for first time in 30 years,” BBC, 21 August 2022)

CLIMATE
UN agency initiates action to reduce risk of tiny plastic ‘nurdles’ polluting the oceans
On 20 August, The Guardian reported that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) which is a UN agency, has asked experts to look into the ways of reducing the environmental risks of transporting ‘nurdles”. The move comes after a series of spills have threatened ocean heath. Nurdles are tiny plastic pellets which are the most common micro-plastic pollutants in the seas, produced by petrochemical companies. These are used as building blocks for plastic products but in the ocean these lead to huge environmental damage and threaten the biodiversity of coastal areas. The IMO said that a panel of experts working on this issues would submit their findings for a meeting in April, 2023. Sri Lanka which has called for labelling the nurdles as harmful substance from its earlier maritime disaster experience. The decision now has been back by Norway, where it had a similar incident of nurdle spill in 2020 affecting the coast line of Denmark, and Sweden. (Jon Ungoed-Thomas, “UN seeks plan to beat plastic nurdles, the tiny scourges of the oceans,” The Guardian, 20 August 2022)

 


20 August 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #285

War in Ukraine: Day 177

Montenegro's prime minister loses no confidence from the parliament; Athens police held operations to clear out Eleonas refugee camp; TfL Workers strike over wage increase; Turkey and Israel to deepen their bilateral ties

Photo : AP/Republicworld


War in Ukraine: Day 177
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 19 August, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a memorandum with representatives of Eurocities. The delegation was headed by the Mayor of Florence, Italy, Daro Nardella. Zelenskyy thanked the European cities for the shelter they provide to the Ukrainians feeling the war. Nardella expressed the  solidarity with Ukraine and assured to provide support to Ukraine’s cities, communities and the people forced to leave the country temporarily. He also mentioned that the association will share their experience in the reconstruction of Ukraine’s damaged cities. Referring to the memorandum, Nardella said: “We want to start this cooperation as soon as possible, to create the largest program of interaction between cities that we have ever seen in the history of Europe.”

Presidential advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak addressed Russia’s interests in conducting peace talks with Ukraine. He alleged that it was not a “sincere offer, but a trap," stating Russia does not intend to end the war, but is rather interested in strengthening its positions and territorial gains. Podolyak accused Russia for engaging in an “energy blackmail” to create an energy deficiency and force the EU member states to lessen their support for Ukraine. He also blamed (ICRC) for not acting as a mediator in the torture and killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Olenivka region.

On the same day, Ukraine’s armed forces reported on successfully repelling Russia’s attacks in the east, and stopped Russia’s forces from advancing in the Southern Buh region. Bakhmut and Kharkiv and Sloviansk regions where Russia’s offensive is most intense, were attacked with tanks, tube and rocket artillery. Shelling was reported in Zaporizhzhya, Kramatorsk and Avdiivka but the Russians could not improve their tactical positions in this region. Ukraine’s military successfully destroyed one of Russia’s satellite communication station known as Legend 2 and an ammunition warehouse in Mykolaiv.

On 18 August, Kyiv Post reported on the explosions in Kerch and the Belbek military base in Sevastopol, Crimea. Belbek is Russia’s largest airbase in Crimea. Ukraine is yet to take responsibility for the continuous attacks in Crimea. Russia’s authorities are still maintaining that the explosions were a result of air defence activities conducted by Russia and that there was no imminent danger. However, the self-proclaimed governor of Sevastopol, Mykhaiil Razvozhaev, said that a Ukrainian drone was shot down.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 August, DPR head Denis Pushilin said that Russia, Belarus and Syria will send their observers to a tribunal for the trials of foreign mercenaries. Militants from the Azov and Aidar battalions are expected to be brought before the tribunal. DPR’s foreign ministry informed that the necessary documents are being prepared.

On the same day, President Vladimir Putin spoke with France’s president Emmanuel Macron over a phone call initiated by Macron.  The leaders discussed the continuous shelling at Zaporizhzhya near the nuclear power plant and the related risks. They agreed on the dispatch of the IAEA mission and Putin informed Macron on the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 

Russia’s telecom regulator, Roskomnadzor said that enforcement measures had been taken against TikTok, Telegram, Zoom, Discord and Pinterest, upon failure of them to remove false information as per Russian claims. Roskomnadzor said that the enforcement will remain until the companies align with the Russian rules.

On 19 August, Gazprom announced that they will halt gas supplies to the EU via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The company said that the stoppage will be from 31 August for an unscheduled maintenance. Repairs will be conducted in collaboration with Siemens and the only functioning Trent 60 gas compressor unit will thus be shut down for three days. Gazprom added: “Upon completion of work and the absence of technical malfunctions of the unit, gas transportation will be restored to the level of 33 million cubic meters per day.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 18 August, ICJ announced EU's submission of information on the allegations of war crimes committed by Russia's soldier against Ukrainians. The application was submitted by Latvia on 26 July. Ukraine's mission to the EU thanked the EU for assisting the case of Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation). The information submitted by the EU was under Article 34, paragraph 2, of the Statute and Article 69, paragraph 2, of the Rules of Court of the ICJ.

On 19 August, according to a memorandum published by the White House, US president Joe Biden allocated an additional USD 775 million as a military aid to Ukraine. The new package will include munitions for HIMARS, 16 105 milimeter howitzers, 15 Scan Eagle spy drones, HARM high-speed anti-radiation missiles, anti-rocket systems and mine-clearing vehicles. As per the memorandum, military education and training is also a part of the package.

On 19 August, POLITICO reported that Greece and Cyprus expressed their supported to Germany over the visa ban. Since Cyprus has a significant Russian-speaking expatriate community, the foreign minister pointed that they believe in “people-to-people contacts” and that such a move would be a “decision in the wrong direction.” Greece, being one of the top tourist destinations for Russians also said that it was not considering to change its decision. The EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss on the tourist ban in Prague by August.

On 18 August, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Zelenskyy in Lviv along with UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres. Erdogan aiming to be the mediator between Russia and Ukraine, assured Zelenskyy that Turkey firmly supports Ukraine. He said: “While continuing our efforts to find a solution, we remain on the side of our Ukraine friends.” Though he said that Turkey will assist Ukraine in their rebuilding efforts, Erdogan also reiterated that he was willing to host Russia and Ukraine for negotiation talks 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 19 August, in an interview, Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo told Bloomberg News that China's president Xi Jinping and Russia’s president Putin might attend the Group of 20 summit in November. For Russia, this will be the first global summit since its invasion of Ukraine. For China, this will be the first time Xi travels outside the country since China shut its borders at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022. Previously the US had called for the G20 member-states to remove Russia’s membership and withdraw the invitation to Putin. However, Widodo said: "The rivalry of the big countries is indeed worrying… What we want is for this region is to be stable, peaceful, so that we can build economic growth."

References
In the presence of the President, a Memorandum was signed with Eurocities on support for the reconstruction of Ukrainian cities,” president.gov.ua, 19 August 2022
Declaring its readiness for negotiations, Russia is trying to buy time to prepare for the continuation of its aggressive policy towards Ukraine - Mykhailo Podolyak,” president.gov.ua, 19 August 2022
Armed Forces of Ukraine repulse all enemy assaults and attacks,” Ukrinform, 19 August 2022
Ukrainian Army Destroys Huge Russian Complex in Mykolaiv Region,” Kyiv Post, 19 August 2022
Crimea Rocked by Overnight Explosions at Russian Facilities,” Kyiv Post, 19 August 2022
Russia, Belarus, Syria to send observers to tribunal against mercenaries — DPR leader,” TASS, 19 August 2022
Russian Munitions Depot Ablaze Near Ukraine Border,” The Moscow Times, 20 August 2022
Macron calls Putin,” RT, 19 August 2022
Telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron,” Kremlin.ru, 19 August 2022
Russian watchdog to mark TikTok, Telegram, Zoom, Discord and Pinterest as violators of law,” TASS, 19 August 2022
Russian gas transit to EU via Nord Stream to be halted – Gazprom,” RT, 19 August 2022
Case of genocide against Ukrainians: EU furnishes information at ICJ,” Ukrinform, 19 August 2022
Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation),” International Court of Justice, 18 August 2022
Patricia Zengerle, Idrees Ali and Steve Holland, “Biden administration readies about $800 mln in additional security aid for Ukraine –sources,” Reuters, 19 August 2022
Nektaria Stamouli and Lili Bayer, “Cyprus and Greece oppose ban on Russian tourist visas,” POLITICO, 19 August 2022
Erdogan Throws Turkey’s Support Behind Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 18 August 2022
Melissa Zhu, “Xi and Putin to attend G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia's Jokowi says,” BBC, 19 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

GREECE
Athens to clear out its last refugee camp
On 19 August, a skirmish between Greece’s authorities in Athens and people at the Eleonas refugee camp took place where the riot police forces tried to evict migrants who lived there. The police were reported to have used tear gas against the migrants and the activists who had set up barricades before the confrontation. An NGO named Solidarity With Migrants reported that only 30 people were evicted after the operation and the government is trying to relocate them to Schisto by the end of 2022. Greece had been accused by NGOs of pushing back refugees illegally. Solidarity With Migrants said that they will not move from the Eleonas camp until the Greek authorities secure housing for the migrants in the city. (“Clashes as Greek riot police storm Athens camp to evict migrants,” euronews, 19 August 2022)

MONTENEGRO
Prime minister Dritan Abazovic faces no confidence motion
On 20 August, Montenegro’s prime minister Dritan Abazovic’s cabinet lost a no-confidence motion by the country’s parliament. The reason for the no-confidence motion was that Abazovic had signed a deal with the powerful Serbian Orthodox Church which the party of President Milo Djukanovic, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) opposed to. It was the second no-confidence motion in 2022 after the previous prime minister Zdravko Krivokapic had aligned himself with the same church. DSP had initiated the motion with the support of 50 of 81 deputies of the parliament. According to Abazovic, the division between pro-Russian Serbian supporting citizens and the ones who want to be independent Montenegrins have let criminal groups run the country. (“Montenegro's parliament passes no-confidence motion on cabinet,” Reuters, 20 August 2022)

THE UK
London transport system halted due to strike by transport workers
On 19 August, workers of Transport for London (TfL) held a strike over an increase in wages to keep up with the double-digit inflation. London’s transport network was stopped due to the strikes. The UK already saw strikes oraganized by unions leading to rail disruptions in 2022. Soaring energy prices, the war in Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and rising food costs are said to contribute to the high inflation rate of 10.1 per cent the UK seen in July. The government is worried about the scenario where there is an increase in both wages and inflation that might lead to the collapse of the economy. TfL will have prolonged negotiations with the government to reach a solution. (“Strikes bring London's transport network to a halt,” Reuters, 19 August 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
French archaeologists discover ways to decipher ancient Elamite script
On 18 August, Deutsche Welle reported that French archaeologist Francois Desset and his team had found a way to partially decipher the previously unknown Elamite script. Characters of the script named Linear Elamite were discovered in artefacts in the ruins of the city Susa in modern-day Iran. Ancient Elamite was said to be as antique as Mesopotamian cuneiform, Egyptian Hieroglyphics and Harrapan scripts. Desset and his team said that they deciphered the Elamite language by comparing the same passage on silver cups that were unearthed in Susa to the already known Mesopotamian cuneiform. A lot of researchers disagree with Desset’s findings saying that they might be inconclusive. Desset also said that the characters were phonographic, syllables that have sounds rather than logographic, letters that are complete words. (Katrin Ewert, “Archaeological mystery: Ancient Elamite script from Iran deciphered?,” Deutsche Welle, 18 August 2022) 

REGIONAL
A large number of migrants recorded to have crossed the English Channel
On 19 August, euronews reported that more than 250 migrants were rescued from crossing the English Channel in just four days. The UK had been criticized for having a controversial deal with Rwanda to send illegal migrants to the east African state and the European Court of Human Rights had even halted the first deportation by its ruling. France’s Navy and coastguards have been rescuing more asylum seekers that wish to cross the English Channel to go to the UK in 2022 than in previous years. The UK government released figures on 14 August that suggests that the number of migrants illegally crossing the English Channel to the country is reaching a record level. (“Hundreds of UK-bound migrants rescued from sea in just four days,” euronews, 19 August 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Turkey and Israel restore diplomatic ties by mutually appointing ambassadors 
On 19 August, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israel’s leader Isaac Herzog had a telephone conversation about deepening their bilateral relations and regional issues. Turkey is looking forward to friendly relations with Israel on the basis of respect for mutual sensitivities. Both states announced that they would be appointing ambassadors at the same time which would be an important first step towards a positive restoration of diplomatic ties between Turkey and Israel following decades of agitation. (“Turkish-Israeli ties will gain new momentum, Erdoğan tells Herzog,” Daily Sabah, 19 August 2022)

 


19 August 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #284

EU member states impose visa ban on Russians | War in Ukraine: Day 176

The UK's Labour party call for energy price caps; Producer price increases makes German economy sombre; The EU-mediated Serbia and Kosovo negotiations fail

Photo : REUTERS/Ints Kalnins/File Photo


IN FOCUS
Visa ban on Russia: Who imposed, what is the impact
By Sai Pranav
 
Which EU member states have imposed the visa ban?
On 18 August, Estonia announced the ban on entry of Russians who hold, the Estonia issued Schengen visa for purpose of tourism, business, sports or culture. Following Estonia’s visa ban, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and the Czech Republic imposed restriction on Russian tourists. The reason behind Finland and the Baltic states imposing a ban is due to huge influx of Russians. Since the west sanctions levied on Russians restricting their air and rail travel, the Russians began using the bordering countries, Finland and the Baltic States as gateway to fly into Europe. Although Schengen visas provided to Russian stand invalid, the humanitarian visas given to the dissidents are another way to get into Europe. Another reason for Finland and the Baltics to levy the ban is to target the Russian oligarchs from vacationing in Europe, while the war continues.

How is the ban affecting the Russians?
First, impact on wealthier Russians. The oligarchs who were using the Schengen visas are either the supporters of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin or investors of European market trying to safeguard their savings. Although the travel ban targets those who come for recreational purposes, those who want to seek refuge might be endangered due to the strict restrictions.

Second, the isolation of Russia. The remained Russian population will be ostracized by the Europeans with entry ban. With such border restrictions, Russia is now being pushed to change its national policy and reduce the intensity of war Ukraine. Such steps will make the Russians to strive against the government upon the restrictions of their freedom of expression and to move across Europe.  

Why does Germany’s stance differ?
Germany which is one the major player in Europe has opposed the visa ban by Finland and the Baltics on Russian tourists. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the ban on visas for Russians will cause more burden to those who oppose Putin’s policies and the war. Since Germany considers the position of the vulnerability of the Russian people, it stands against the EU-wide visa ban.

References
Estonia's Russian tourist visa ban enters into force on August 18”, ERR news, 18 August 2022
"Finland and Estonia call for EU ban on tourist visas for Russians," euronews, 09 August 2022
"Germany's Scholz supports Russian refugees coming to EU," Deutsche Welle, 15 August 2022
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "Government limits issuing of visas to and entry into Estonia of Russian citizens," vm.ee, 11 August 2022
"Number of Russians Applying for Schengen Visas Soars Amid Banning Threats," Schengenvisainfo, 15 August 2022
Andrew Roth, "'The west doesn't want Russians partying in the streets of Europe': calls grow for a visa ban," The Guardian, 13 August 2022
"UN Opposes Estonia's Decision to Ban Visas for Russians," Schengenvisainfo, 15 August 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 176
By Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground

On 17 August, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant said that Ukraine’s nuclear scientists and the IAEA are in constant touch and are working towards sending the IAEA mission to the plant soon. He insisted Russia to withdraw from the plant completely to ensure safety.

Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke with the US secretary of the state, Antony Blinken and discussed further arms supplies to Ukraine. Kuleba thanked for support from the US, but urged for more arms for Ukraine’s forces to reduce the war intensity. He also said that more military aid would be the ‘best investment’ for the long-term security of Europe.

On 18 August, Russian troops launched a missile attack on Kharkiv’s Slobidskyi District. Two of the missiles hit a tram depot and damaged a repair shop and a dormitory. Due to the strike, 10 civilians were killed and 18 injured. Other than in Kharkiv, Zelenskyy reported on intense fighting in the Avdiyivka and Bakhmut.

On the same day, Prozorro a state-owned company that runs transparent electronic auctions for the government sale, the CEO said that Ukraine was considering the launch of its mass privatization initiative from 01 September. As a part of the initiative, Ukraine has planned to privatize more than 100 state assets. This was due to the shift of population from Ukraine’s south and east to the west, which faces a shortage of real-estate. As the government has spare property to sell in these areas, privatization of the same is expected to stimulate business activity. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 18 August, president Vladimir Putin in a phone conversation with Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo. They discussed the global food security and Russia’s efforts in signing the Turkey-UN mediated grain deal to stabilize the current situation.

Russia’s defence ministry claimed that 53 ships from 14 countries were still stuck in Kherson, Nikolayev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa, and Yuzhny ports in Ukraine. On the food exports, he reported that until now, 563,318 tonnes of food had been exported from Ukraine and so far more than 90 militants in Kharkiv were killed. Lieutenant general Igor Konashenkov said that a temporary base of foreign mercenaries had been hit with “a ground-based high-precision weapon,” as a part of the operation.

A member of the military-civilian administration of the Zaporizhzhya region, Yevgeny Balitsky said that only one reactor at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant was operational. He alleged that while Ukraine still receives about USD one million worth of power per day from the plant, artillery bombardments still continued.

MiG-31 fighters with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have been sent to the Chkalovsk air base in the Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad. The warplanes which have a range of up to 2000 kilometres will be on round-the-clock duty. This move comes as a part of “additional measures of strategic deterrence” to improve the security in the region.

On 17 August, Russia’s Vedomosti newspaper cited a letter sent by the Federal Trade Union of Air Traffic Controllers about the state for the air control staff in the country. The letter mentioned that over half of Russia’s air traffic control staff was currently on temporary leave or had been dismissed because of the international sanction on Russia. As many western countries had closed their airspaces for Russian aircraft, leading to decreased demand for staff, pushing for lay-off or temporary leave.

The Jewish Agency, which coordinates the movement of Jews across the world to Israel said that Jews in Russia are migrating out of the state in large numbers. Since March, around 20,500 of Russia's estimated total of 165,000 Jews have left the country in fear of persecution.

The West View 
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 18 August, Slovakia’s defence minister, Jaroslav Nad stated that Slovakia’s government will continue to provide military support to Ukraine and expressed an interest to send their MiG 29 fleet for EUR 300 million. However, a Bratislava-based think tank, GLOBSEC said that as per a survey, only half of the respondents were in favor of Slovakia sending arms to Ukraine. Nonetheless, Nad claimed that Russia’s propaganda was to change the attitudes of the population to stop Slovakia’s military assistance. He added: “This government certainly decided to continue in that because we need to help Ukrainians - they deserve that - and we very much understand what occupation means.”

Also on 18 August, Estonia's economic affairs and communications ministry said that Estonia was subject to an extensive cyberattack in 15 years. Close to 200 state and private Estonian institutions were targeted in the attack. However, authorities could repel the attack and most websites remained fully functional throughout the day. Killnet, a Russian Hacker group claimed responsibility for the attacks and said that it was in response to Estonia removing a Soviet-era Tu-34 tank from display in Narva.

European Commission which had adopted a temporary crisis framework on 23 March 2022, later amended in July as a measure to help its member states economy affected by the Ukraine war. The framework initially aimed to compensate those companies impact from the crisis situation such as sanctions and incurring of additional cost such as electricity and gas. But due to the extremities of war, it will now provide set more schemes for increasing investments in renewable energies, such as hydrogen, biogas and renewable heat with simple processes. The new framework also covers supporting the decarbonizing of “industrial process for promoting energy efficiency. Upon Germany and Spain adopting the provision given in the framework, the European Commission approved the ammendments.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 August, a military spokesperson of Myanmar, Zaw Min Tun said that they had received permission to import petrol from Russia after junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing’s discussion with Russia’s authorities. Amidst a growing energy crisis and rising prices, Myanmar’s military government has set up a Russian oil purchasing committee to oversee the buying, importing and transporting of fuel oil, which are due to arrive from September. Min Tun said that, Myanmar will also consider joint oil exploration exercises with Russia and China.

On the same day, the Japanese foreign ministry announced to donate JPY one billion to Moldova. It is to assist the country in dealing with the massive inflow of Ukrainian refugees. It will provide extra equipment for diagnosis, surgical and artificial lung ventilation gear will be provided for five medical facilities in Chisinau.

In a trilateral meeting held between Zelenskyy, Erdogan and UN Secretary general, discussed on how UN’s grain exports was helping stabilize the food crisis, and appreciated the efforts of JCC on monitoring the ship exports. Antonio Guterres expressing his concerns on tensions over Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear power plant, urged for an agreement to install a civilian infrastructure and ensure no military operation took place. He announced the establishment of the fact-finding mission, to gather and analyze information and appointment of General Santos Cruz to lead the mission.

References
Only absolute transparency and controlled situation at and around ZNPP can guarantee return to normal nuclear safety – address of President of Ukraine.” President.gov.ua, 17 August 2022
Kuleba, Blinken coordinate further arms supplies from U.S., other partners,” Ukrinform, 17 August 2022
Death toll in Russia’s missile strike on Kharkiv dormitory rises to 10,” Ukrinform, 18 August 2022
Aleksandra Klitina, “Over 100 State Assets to be Privatized in September,” Kyiv Post, 18 August 2022
Telephone conversation with President of Indonesia Joko Widodo,” Kremlin.ru, 18 August 2022
Over 50 foreign ships still blocked in Ukrainian ports — Russian Defense Ministry.” TASS, 18 August 2022
Dozens of foreign fighters eliminated in strike on Ukrainian base – Russia,” RT, 18 August 2022
Only one reactor at Zaporozhye NPP currently in operation — region’s authorities,” TASS, 18 August 2022
Russia expects IAEA experts to visit Zaporozhye NPP soon,” TASS, 18 August 2022
Vladimir Isachenkov, “Russia deploys hypersonic missiles to its Baltic exclave,”, AP News, 18 August 2022
Half of Russia’s Air Traffic Control Staff Furloughed or Fired – Vedomosti.” The Moscow Times, 17 August 2022
Aleem Maqbool, “Ukraine war: Thousands of Jews quit Russia amid fears of persecution,” BBC, 17 August 2022
Russian anti-war protesters in Cyprus defiant after 'memorial collage' threat,” Reuters, 18 August 2022
Johannes Pleschberger, “Slovakia's plan to sell fighter jets to Ukraine divides a nation,” Euronews, 18 August 2022
Estonia hit by cyberattacks after Soviet memorial removal,” Deutsche Welle, 18 August 2022
Daily News 18 / 08 / 2022,” European Commission, 18 August 2022
Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says,” Reuters, 18 August 2022
Japan to donate Moldova $7.4 mln in support of Ukrainian refugees — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 18 August 2022
Grain deal ‘victory for diplomacy,’ UN chief tells journalists in Ukraine,” news.un.org, 18 August 2022
Temporary Crisis Framework,” European Commission, 18 August 2022
Secretary-General's remarks to the Press at Lviv, Ukraine Press Conference [as delivered],” UN Secretary General, 18 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

GERMANY
High producer prices add more trouble to Germany’s economy
On 19 August, Germany’s finance ministry announced that the economic prospect looked sombre for the country due to soaring energy costs and longer-than-expected supply chain disruption. The producer prices also went high due to energy price rises. The August report by the ministry stated that the month was looking to be highly uncertain. Other factors such as the war in Ukraine, China’s zero-COVID policy and lower supply of gas from Russia have also contributed to the 8.5 per cent inflation in the month of July. The energy prices had increased up to 105 per cent in July when compared to 2021. As a countermeasure for the increased energy price, taxes on gas was reduced from 19 per cent to seven per cent. (“Record jump in German producer prices adds to gloomy outlook,” Reuters, 19 August 2022)

THE UK
Labour party demands a freeze on energy costs
On 18 August, the UK government’s opposition, Labour Party, requested to recall the parliament to discuss energy price caps as the country deals with the worst cost-of-living crisis with the winter looming ahead. The Labour party asked the government for freezing the energy coast and not let them rise any further. It promised to do the same if it was in power and would compensate for the expense by extending a windfall tax on oil and gas companies. Johnson faced criticism over his leadership guiding the country through the surging energy costs. The UK’s citizens are concerned over a lack of nationalised plan to avoid poverty hitting them. (“UK opposition Labour Party wants parliament recalled over energy price cap,” Reuters, 19 August 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Twitter sued over failure to report on its internal complaint mechanism
On 18 August, EURACTIV reported that Twitter was discovered to be violating Germany’s content moderation rules by a German non-profit organization called HateAid. HateAid filed a complaint to the Federal Office of Justice that Twitter failed to report on its internal complaint mechanism as required by the Network Enforcement Act. Its lack of transparency in implementing countermotion procedures can make users forcibly complain about an account for a second time after 100 users had already reported the same account. The complaint against the social networking provider was a precursor of how to behave when the Digital Service Act comes into effect. (Laura Kabelka, “Twitter accused of violating German content moderation rules,” EURACTIV, 18 August 2022)

REGIONAL
Fresh EU-mediated talks between Serbia and Kosovo results in disagreements
On 18 August, the EU-mediated negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo in Brussels ended up as a failure. According to the EU foreign policy head Josep Borrell, the discussion between Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo’s prime minister Albin Kurti to reach a solution over the current disputes about the licence plate and northern Serbian minorities in Kosovo was not the end. He said that their talks would continue after a few days. Serbia’s state media confirmed that their president is thinking of holding an emergency meeting with leaders of the Serbian minority from Kosovo in Belgrade. (“EU-mediated talks fail to settle tensions between Serbia, Kosovo,” Deutsche Welle, 18 August 2022)

 


18 August 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #283

War in Ukraine: Day 175

Poland accuses Germany and France; NATO begins protection of Iceland’s airspace; NATO’s Thracian Viper joint exercise begins; Palestine president faces criticism about “holocaust” comment

Photo : UK Ministry of Defence/Twitter


War in Ukraine: Day 175
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav

War on the Ground

Ukraine’s forces carried out nuclear drill in the surrounding area of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, where the fighters on the front had protective gear and performed radiation scan. The drill is expected to continue for few more days. Ukraine government reported on the arrival of five new ships in the Chornomorsk Black Sea port to export 70,000 tonnes of grains further.

On 17 August, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy received the documents from the ambassadors of Kyrgyz Republic, Romania, Kingdom of Belgium, and Kingdom of Spain for opening embassies in Ukraine. Zelenskyy appreciated their efforts in renewing the bilateral cooperation with Ukraine and helping in reconstruction during the war. Spain’s ambassador agreed to provide humanitarian and defence assistance to Ukraine, in support of its sovereignty and territorial veracity.

The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak met Secretary-General of the UNCTAD, Rebeca Grynspan, discussed on the agreements signed on the operations of Ukraine ports and on dealing the food crisis of other countries. They also discussed on steps to boost Ukraine’s economy with help of international organizations and partner countries. 

Ukraine’s economic ministry released a statement on the status of businesses in Ukraine on the relocation programme launched. So far, 710 businesses have been shifted from the war prone area, of which 500 have already started back its operations. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 August, Russia’s foreign ministry refuted the allegations made by the Wall Street Journal about Russia shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) to steal Ukraine’s electricity as a false news. According to the foreign ministry, the US along with Ukrainian officials are trying to spread falsified news blaming Russia for all the attacks on the power plant. Russia had presented the proof of Ukraine’s involvement in the bombing of the Zaporizhzhia power plant and also accused them of attacking the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, which provides the nuclear plant with cooling water, to the IAEA. The latest attack by Ukraine hit closer to breaking a container carrying used nuclear waste.

On the same day, TASS reported that the China’s army will participate in the strategic command and staff exercise Vostok-2022. The exercise will be conducted in the Moscow region around 13 locations. The countries participating in the Vostok-2022 will have a week of training from 30 August till 05 September. China’s defence ministry said that the training would be a friendly one among armies of all the countries in the world and does not relate to any regional or international issue that is happening at the present.

Also on 16 August, Russia’s defence ministry signed a deal with Makeev Missile Centre for the production and supply of large amount of Sarmat Inter Continental Ballistic Missile. The ICBM is said to be the largest missile in the history and was boasted to tear through any missile defence system. Russia’s military not only announced signing of a contract for the non interceptible missile but also S-500 Prometheus air defence system.

The rumours of change in leadership to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been spreading after the consecutive attacks by Ukraine. The Russian administration has confirmed the change of personnel. The state-owned RIA agency said that there is a possibility of Viktor Sokolov replacing the current Black Sea Fleet commander Igor Osipov. The defeats faced by the fleet after the attacks from Ukraine in sinking their flagship Moskova last month and a hit on their base in Saki forced the defence ministry to change the leader of Black Sea Fleet.

On 17 August, research by a Russian high-tech company, GS group reported that the imports of smartphones, especially the cheaper ones have fallen down 38 per cent in the first half due to companies pulling out of Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine made major smartphone brands like Samsung to exit the market and firms such as Xiaomi and Realme has limited their supply. The rise in push-button phones was seen amidst the fear of supply chain disruption.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 August, the European Commission approved EUR 218 million as Bulgarian scheme to help the agriculture production. The aid was sanctioned under the “Temporary Crisis Framework” to support those small, mid-sized and companied dealing in primary produce of energy, fertilizers, fruits, salad vegetables and nuts.

In its intelligence update, UK defence ministry reported on the attacks in north and centre part of Crimea, where Russia’s military airfields are present and an important junction to supply resources to Russia for the Ukraine war.

On 17 August, Germany’s intelligence experts predicted to evidence more “Russian propaganda and espionage” in the ongoing war. Such acts are observed to be focused to fear amongst the Germans over food and energy shortage. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

Amidst the Ukraine war, the ties are deepening between Russia and Myanmar. The sanctions imposed on both nations has brough them closer together. The partnership pledged deeper military ties and cooperation on nuclear energy. Russia has supported and supplied weapons to the military junta, that is ruling now, at the time of coup against Aung San Suu Kyi’s government. As long as the junta is in power, Russia promised a friendly relations between itself and Myanmar. Russia is aiming to increase its influence over the Indo-Pacific region.

On 17 August, prime minister Denys Shmyhal had thanked Justin Trudeau and Canada in a tweet for providing CAD 450 million assistance for purchasing fuel for the winter. He also showed gratitude for the support and solidarity for Ukraine in their resistance to Russia’s invasion.

References
Head of state receives credentials from ambassadors of Kyrgyzstan, Romania, Belgium, Spain,” president.gov.ua, 17 August 2022
Yermak meets with UNCTAD Secretary-General,” president.gov.ua, 17 August 2022
Economy ministry: 500 relocated businesses already resumed operation,” Ukrinform, 17 August 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Kyiv runs nuclear disaster drills near Zaporizhzhia plant,” Deutsche Welle, 17 August 2022
Daily News,” European Commission, 17 August 2022
Intelligence update,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 17 August 2022
Moscow rejects nuclear power theft claims,” RT, 17 August 2022
Smartphone Shipments to Russia Drop 38% Amid Company Pullouts,” The MoscowTimes, 17 August 2022
China’s army to take part in Vostok-2022 exercise in Russia, says Beijing,” TASS, 17 August 2022
Russian military signs contract for ‘uninterceptable’ missiles,” RT, 16 August 2022
Maria Siow, “Partners in isolation: Russia-Myanmar ties deepen amid Western sanctions,” scmp, 18 August 2022
Denys Shmyhal, “Grateful for Canada’s aid,” Twitter, 17 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee

REGIONAL
NATO chief meets leaders of Kosovo and Serbia
On 17 August, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, met both president of Kosovo and Serbia on the recent clash in the northern Kosovo. The issue began after Kosovo ruled that the Serbian license plates and id’s will no longer be valid to enter Kosovo. Since then protests and roadblocks by Serbians have been continuing. NATO’s chief during the visit, he insisted the Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić, to value the rights of the communities and start a dialogue to settle the dispute. Whereas to Kosovo’s leader Aleksandar Vučić, asked to “engage constructively” and assured to support under NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) to guarantee peace to all communities. He said: “KFOR’s neutrality is central to its mission success.. and KFOR is ready to intervene if stability is jeopardised” (“NATO Secretary General meets with Albin Kurti of Kosovo,” nato.int, 17 August 2022; “NATO Secretary General meets with President Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia,” nato.int, 17 August 2022; “Stoltenberg: NATO ready to intervene if Kosovo tensions escalate,” Deutche Welle, 17 August 2022)

Poland accuses Germany of having grand designs on polish territory and controlling the EU along with France
On 17 August, German newspaper Die Welt published an op-ed by Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In the article Morawiecki alleges that the EU is democratic only in name, and the real power is wielded by Germany and France. He claims that the EU is functioning like a de-facto oligarchy and the member states should decide how to prioritise EU action and policies instead of the EU institutions. He said: "Europe finds itself in its present situation not because it is insufficiently integrated, but because it refused to hear the truth." Additionally, Poland’s central bank chief, Adam Glapinski also warned that Poland must keep in mind Germany’s designs on their former lands which now fall within Polish borders. He aimed his criticism at Civic Platform’s leader Donald Tusk accusing him being a stooge for Brussels. He said: “For a year it's been said that the task set by Brussels for Tusk is not only for him to overthrow Poland's existing government and put our country on course for the Eurozone.” He added that once these tasks are accomplished, Tusk will become the head of the European Commission and accelerate an effort to build a European state." (“Poland says Berlin and Paris running EU as an 'oligarchy',” Deutsche Welle, 16 August 2022; Jan Cienski, “Poland’s central bank chief warns of German designs on Polish territory,” POLITICO, 17 August 2022)

NATO begins protection of Iceland’s airspace
On 17 August, Denmark’s F-16s began flying air policing units from Keflavik Air Base in Iceland, as a part of their mission to protect Iceland’s airspace. The Keflavik Air base is controlled by the NATO Control and Reporting Centre at Keflavik and NATO's northern Combined Air Operations Centre (CAOC). The Danish detachment will work with Iceland’s coast guards. These units, which is the fifth deployment of Danish fighter aircrafts will be on standby until mid-September. The head of the CAOC certification team, colonel Wilhelm May mentioned that this marks the third time in 2022 that the team has conducted the certification of NATO fighters to conduct air policing above Iceland. He said: “The Royal Danish Air Force F-16 detachment have demonstrated again that they master the tactics, techniques and procedures to safeguard the skies.” (“Fifth royal Danish air force deployment to Iceland: Ready to secure the high north,” NATO, 17 August 2022)

NATO’s “Thracian Viper” joint flight training exercise commences
On 16 August NATO reported that from 08 August to 19 August, a joint flight training exercise called the “Thracian Viper” is being conducted. Greece, Canada, Romania, and the US are participating in the training exercise that has been conducted annually since 2010. Specific air defence tasks with increasing complexity are being performed. The objective of the exercise is to prepare for the joint participation in coalition operations. Bulgaria is operating from the Graf Ignatievo Air Base, Bezmer Air Base, and the Krumovo Air Base, and will focus on aeromedical evacuation. Canada and Romania is operating from Romania’s permanent base, while Greece conducts its drills from its own base. US air force is coordinating its operations from the Elena training area. (“Joint flight training Thracian Viper 2022 started,” NATO, 16 August 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
EUs first step to becoming a global leader in digital regulation
On 16 August, the world economic forum reported on the EU’s decision to open a new office in San Francisco, which is known as California’s Silicon Valley. The initiative is taken under the EU’s digital diplomacy to not only directly connect with US’s leading tech companies. It is also to act as a regulator of such tech giants overseeing their global implications. Through which EU’s digital policies, governance models and cooperation will strengthen with the US. Such trans-Atlantic cooperation reflects the shift from where countries had nuclear proliferation treaty to control other countries possessing of nuclear weapons, similarly the ongoing digital transformation insists for prevention of digital proliferation. (Spencer Feingold, “Why the European Union is opening a Silicon Valley 'embassy',” weforum.org, 16 August 2022)

Palestine president’s “holocaust” comment sparks outrage
On 16 August, Palestine’s president Mahmoud Abbas made a controversial statement in Germany at a joint press conference with Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz. Abbas was asked by a journalist whether he wanted to apologise for the deadly attack on Israelis by Palestine’s militants in the 1972 winter Olympics. He said: “If we want to dig further into the past, yes, please, I have 50 massacres that were committed by Israel… 50 Holocausts.” On 17 August, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized the statement and expressed outrage about Abba’s comments. The statement has drawn criticism from Israel too. Israel’s ambassador to Germany, Ron Proser said that ‘holocaust denial” in Germany should not be tolerated. (Philip Oltermann, “Uproar after Mahmoud Abbas in Berlin accuses Israel of ’50 Holocausts’,” The Guardian, 17 August 2022)

 

 


17 August 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #282

War in Ukraine: Day 174

Spain’s worsening climate crisis; Discrimination cases increase in Germany; Greece no more under bailout monitoring

Photo : AP Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 174
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground

On 16 August, Kyiv Post reported that Ukraine’s forces had attacked the Antonovsky bridge for the second time with HIMARS. Russia’s bridge-repair tools were also destroyed in the strike. The Antonovsky bridge is the main bridge connecting the two sides of Kherson across the Dnieper river. As a result of the destabilization of the bridge, thousands of Russia’s troops have been trapped and cut off in the occupied parts of Kherson.

Also on 16 August, Ukraine’s military said that they have repelled several attacks by Russia in the Donbas region. Ukraine military’s general staff claimed that Russia attempted to attack the northern Kharkiv regions, in the Kramatorsk direction, and on Bakhmut, but were unsuccessful in their efforts. Russia was also found to be using tanks, tubes and rocket artillery to attack in the Sloviansk direction but according to the general, Ukraine’s armed forces were successful in pushing them back.

On the attacks in Crimea, a key advisor to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Mykhailo Podolyak said that there could be similar attacks in the “next two or three months.” Though Ukraine had not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks, Podolyak said that the explosions could be viewed as “demilitarization in action.” 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 16 August, president Vladimir Putin addressed the participants of the 10th Moscow conference on international security and spoke about how “Western globalist elites” have been hampering the “sovereign paths of development.” He also criticized the west for destroying the European security system and the NATO bloc for their eastward expansion. Putin justified Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine citing the presence of neo-nazi ideology and numerous murders of inhabitants in Donbas. He also accused the US of prolonging the conflict and of interfering in the matters of a sovereign country as it had done in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. 

Russia's defence minister, Sergei Shoigu in a phone conversation with UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres to discuss the operational safety of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. On the issue of nuclear weapons, Shoigu said that targets in Ukraine did not require a nuclear strike. He insisted that the claim about Russia using nuclear weapons did not coincide with Russia’s guidelines of using nuclear power only in emergencies. He also mentioned that Russia using chemical weapons in their offensive in Ukraine was an “absurd” idea as it destroyed its chemical weapons stockpile in 2017. Shoigu said that it was worse than during the Cold War, blaming NATO and its expansionist policies. He also said that the ‘myth’ surrounding the greatness of “superweapons” supplied by the US was being dispelled as all the weapons were easily being “ground up in battle.”

On 16 August, explosions were reported in the elite military unit in Dzhankoi in Crimea. On the blasts in Crimea, Russia’s defence ministry said that it was a clear “act of sabotage.” At least two civilians were wounded and over 3000 people have been evacuated from the area around the weapons depot.

Russia’s embassy in the US said that the US functions with no regard for the security and interests of other countries, thus increasing the risk of nuclear attacks. It revealed that the US has withdrawn from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the 1992 Treaty on Open Skies, while Russia “faithfully fulfills its obligations as a nuclear-weapon state.” The embassy said: “The [US’] steps to further engage in a hybrid confrontation with Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis are fraught with unpredictable escalation and a direct military clash of nuclear powers.” 

On the same day, the Tagansky district court fined the popular video streaming service, Twitch, RUB two million for not removing a video with false information about Russia. The video in question allegedly promotes false news about the events in Bucha, where hundreds of civilians were murdered by Russia’s armed forces. Roscomnadzor (Federal agency in charge of communications and IT) has said that the measure will be in place till the violations are removed by the platform. The same court also issued a RUB four million fine on Messaging App Telegram. The fine was because Telegram refused to remove a bot that reveals the personal details of Russian servicemen involved in the offensive in Ukraine. Both the platforms have been found guilty under Part 2 of Article 13.42 of the code of administrative offenses. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 16 August, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to back the EU-wide ban on granting tourist visas to Russia grew. His reluctance to ban Russian tourists comes after several EU countries are deliberating on allowing Russian tourists in their countries, given the invasion of Russia. Scholz said that the war is Putin's responsibility and the Russian people should not suffer for it. At a press conference in Norway, Scholz also said that the dissidents fleeing Russia must be kept in mind.

However, individual countries are taking steps to implement the ban. Finland's foreign ministry issued a statement saying that from 01 September, the number of visas issued to Russians will be slashed. It will cut down Russian visa application appointments from 1000 to 500 per day, of which only 100 will be tourist visas. This move was catalyzed by the fact that Russians have been using the Helsinki-Vantaa airport as a major entry point into Europe and as a gateway to European holidays.

The UK defence ministry, in its intelligence update said that Russia's Black Sea Fleet is struggling to control the sea effectively. Patrols were generally limited to waters near the Crimea coast. It added that the fleet's limited effectiveness undermines Russia's amphibious threat to Odesa. 

On the same day, AP News reported that five Europeans captured in Russia as mercenaries are on trial in Russia backed Donetsk since 15 August. Matthias Gustafsson from Sweden, Vjekoslav Prebeg from Croatia, and John Harding, Andrew Hill and Dylan Healy from the UK all pleaded not guilty to their charges. However, if found otherwise, they might face the death penalty under the laws of DPR. Their next hearing is scheduled for October.

As reported by the Joint Communication Centre (JCC), in August, 563,317 tonnes of agricultural products have been shipped from Ukraine through the grain corridors set up by the Black Sea grain initiative. As per Turkey’s TRT Haber, in the first fifteen days of August, 21 outgoing ships departed from Ukraine’s Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi ports and 15 inbound ships had reached Ukraine.

The Global Fallout
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 16 August, UN spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric on the IAEA visit to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, said that the UN had the logistic and security capacity to facilitate the visit. But due to difficulty to reach the plant, the mission will have to cross the frontline at Kyiv mentioned by the Russian spokesperson has challenged in making the visit possible. 

Also on the same day, Dujarric announced that Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip and Erdogan and Antonio Guterres will meet Zelenskyy in Lviv on 18 August. The leaders are planned to discuss the situation at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant to find a solution to the Ukraine war. Guterres is also expected to visit the Joint Communication Centre in Istanbul on 20 August. 

On 16 August, as per satellite images from Planet Labs PBC, the first ship to have left Ukraine, Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni has been docked at the Tartous port in Syria. The ship which set sail on 01 August which was supposed to unload at Lebanon has not set sail since the original buyer refused the shipment. 

Also on 16 August, the first maritime shipment of Ukrainian wheat grain for humanitarian operations run by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) left for the Horn of Africa. WFP director, David Beasley lauded the effort and said: “It will take more than grain ships out of Ukraine to stop world hunger, but with Ukrainian grain back on global markets we have a chance to stop this global food crisis from spiraling even further.”

References:
Russian Troops Encircled After Antonovsky Bridge Bombing,” Kyiv Post, 16 August 2022
Paul Byrne, “Ukrainian military says it repelled more than dozen attacks,” AP News, 16 August 2022
Armed Forces of Ukraine push Russian troops back in four directions,” Ukrinform, 16 August 2022
Address to participants and guests of the X Moscow Conference on International Security,” kremlin.ru, 16 August 2022
Shoigu, Guterres discuss safe functioning of Zaporozhye NPP,” TASS, 15 August 2022
No need for nuclear weapons in Ukraine – Moscow,” RT, 16 August 2022
Western ‘superweapons’ myth dispelled – Shoigu,” RT, 16 August 2022
Ukraine Defies Russia With Attacks on Crimea, a ‘Holy Land’ to Putin,” The New York Times, 16 August 2022
Russia warns of ‘direct military clash’ with US,” RT, 16 August 2022
Telegram fined four million rubles in Russia,” LENTA.RU, 16 August 2022
Twitch fined two million rubles in Russia,” LENTA.RU, 16 August 2022
David Mac Dougall, “Germany refuses to back calls for Russia tourist visa ban,” Euronews, 16 August 2022
Finland limits visas to Russians amid rush of Europe-bound tourists,” Reuters, 16 August 2022
Russia's Black Sea fleet struggling with effective sea control, UK says,” Reuters, 16 August 2022
Five Europeans go on trial in separatist-controlled Ukraine,” AP News, 16 August 2022
563 thousand 317 tons of foodstuffs were transported from the grain corridor,” TRT Haber, 16 August 2022
Michelle Nichols, “U.N. can facilitate IAEA power plant visit, but Russia puts conditions,” Reuters, 16 August 2022
Erdoğan, Guterres, Zelenskyy to hold meeting in Lviv,” Daily Sabah, 16 August 2022
Ship carrying first Ukraine grain cargo docks in Syria's Tartous - shipping source,” Reuters, 17 August 2022
First WFP vessel leaves Ukraine, boosting efforts to get food supplies to people threatened by famine,” wfp.org, 16 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY
Germany’s commission reveals annual report on discrimination
Germany’s anti-discrimination commissioner Ferda Ataman, disclosed a report on Germany’s persisting problem of discrimination. The report revealed a highest record of cases in the last 12 months since 2006 with 5,617 cases last year. As per the split, 20 per cent were found to discriminated because of gender, 10 per cent due to age, nine per cent based on religion and four per cent on sexual identity. Ataman urged the government to give more opportunities to those affected to claim their rights, and better legal framework. (“Germany: Discrimination a continuing problem, report shows,” Deutsche Welle, 16 August 2022)

SPAIN
Spain’s waning climate disasters
On 16 August, Spain’s ministry for the Ecological Transition reported record-high temperatures in Spain since 1961. The recorded temperature was more than 44 degrees Celsius, with the average ranging from 25.6 Celsius and an increasing trend of 2.7 degrees from 1981 to 2010. In response, the government has installed climate shelters in libraries, sports centres, museums and schools mainly to help the old, children, and people with chronic disease. In terms of forest fires, close to 265,000 hectares have been destroyed, for which the government signed a decree to propose plans to control such fires. Apart from the high-temperatures, and wildfires, drying of water reserves and rising sea temperatures is also occurring in different parts of Spain. As immediate protective measures, Spain has restricted its water supply, and few activities such as swimming pool, washing cars and showers in the beaches. It has also called for the amendment of the regulations over coastal development. (“How Spain is coping with the heat,” Deutsche Welle, 16 August 2022)

POLAND
Poland finds more dead fish in the Oder River
On 17 August, Poland firefighters removed 100 tonnes of dead fish from the Oder River which runs between Germany and Poland. The national firefighter press office spokesperson confirmed the operation, where 1000 of fish were found in the 520 mile stretch of the river. Although the reason behind the death is yet to be discovered, the Polish prime minister said: “Probably enormous quantities of chemical waste was dumped into the river in full knowledge of the risk and consequences.” (“Poland pulls 100 tonnes of dead fish from Oder river after mystery mass die-off,” The Guardian, “ 17 August 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Despite Greece’s exits from bailout monitoring, economic problems continue
On 16 August, Greece announced the stepping out of the bailout-monitoring which has raised reactions from the government and investors. Greece which was in bailout from 2010 to 2018, which was under the help of the EU to prevent going bankrupt will be out of the scheme from 20 August. According to Greece's Finance Minister, the economic difficulty faced by Greece was over and it can now draft its own economic policy. During the crisis, Greece’s unemployment rate was at 28 per cent, which has now reduced to 12.5 per cent. Although the inflation stands, the GDP has boosted by 8.3 per cent. Few problems still remain such as the “chronic tax evasion,” dependency over large businesses, and a poor sovereign debt rating. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Greece exits bailout monitoring, but austerity pain lingers,” POLITICO, 16 August)


UK initiate a consultation with the EU to settle the dispute over access to scientific information
On 16 August, the UK government began a formal consultation with the EU to address the delays in accessing EU’s scientific research. Through the consultation, the UK and the EU will settle the dispute through the norms set in the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Although the negotiations to access the information began in 2020, the EU has been the blocking UK which has now led to serious constrain to the research and development industry of the UK. While UK is a leader in science, technology and research concentrated, EU’s research community has supported the decision to collaborate with the UK. It is to mainly, benefit collaborative research and resolve societal and economic challenges. (“UK launches formal consultations with EU over access to scientific programmes,” Gov.uk, 16 August 2022)


16 August 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #281

War in Ukraine: Day 173

Finland scraps equal-pay legislation; New tax raises gas bills in Germany; Femicides rise in Italy; Truss and Sunak begin Scotland campaign; Iran sends back EU draft nuclear deal with queries

Photo : US Army/ABC News


War in Ukraine: Day 173
By Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 14 August, ministry of digital transformation of Ukraine reported that Ukraine’s IT army had blocked over 600 online resources from 01 August conducting four significant attacks on Russia. The IT army disrupted the postal services of Russia with a powerful cyberattack rendering them useless, and the revenue flow of posts was stopped. Another major attack was in the form of withholding pensions of dead or living Russian soldiers from their relatives who participated in the war. Online banking was also meddled with by the IT team of Ukraine. Customers of numerous Russian banks were denied online transactions with their smartphones. The last crucial attack was on Russia’s video conference platforms which were blocked from Russian users.
 
On the same day, Ukraine’s arms forces spokesperson claimed that Russia-funded Wagner mercenary group was attacked by Ukraine’s Armed Forces (UAF) using a long-range HIMARS precision-guided artillery rocket. UAF confirmed that an abandoned apartment in the Donbas town of Popasna was the headquarters of the Wagner group through a photo published by a pro-Russian reporter, Sergei Sreda. Almost 10 mercenaries were reported to be killed during the attack in an unconfirmed Ukrainian military news feed. 20 more were injured due to the attack—Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s former personal cook. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, was present during the attack but was not confirmed to have been injured or dead in the reports.   
 
On 13 August, according to Mariupol’s mayor, Ukrainians forced to move out from Mariupol due to the invasion were again deported from the Russian city of Pskov to the port city in Ukraine. The Mariupol residents were becoming a nuisance to the local authorities of Pskov. They were sent to Rostov-on-Don in a trailer. The Donetsk People’s Republic authorities would then transport them to Mariupol. Many Mariupol residents live in abandoned buildings as the war-ravaged city has been almost destroyed, and the water, gas or electricity supply is fluctuating.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 15 August, Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, revealed for the first time, its new orbital station following its news of leaving the International Space Station after 2024 earlier this year. Russian Orbital Station was on display during the Army 2022 International Military-Technical Forum. The deployment of the space station was decided to be in two stages.
 
On 15 August, Putin and North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un discussed ways to strengthen their bilateral relations. To enhance the security and stability of the Korean peninsula. North Korea said that there would be a possibility of it sending its workers to help in the construction of the two Russia supported regions in eastern Ukraine and also for other labours.

On the same day, Russian authorities confirmed that Lithuania’s Šiauliai bank’s denial to work with rouble accounts would not affect the transit payment as they were initially paid in euros. The bank's Kaliningrad transit operations with Russia will halt from 15 August and in all currencies from 01 September. 

On 15 August, Lenta reported that Police and FSB discovered Alexander Dus, a resident of Valuyek in the Belgorod region, in possession of an RGD-5 and seven F-1 grenades, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, and 500 rounds of ammunition. Upon investigation, Dus revealed on the procurement of weapons from a Russian soldier. Some of the arms were already sold by Dus to civilians. An investigation to find the seller from the defence ministry is underway. For the illegal sale of weapons Dus and his friend were criminally charged for storing explosives and placed under house arrest. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 August, Switzerland’s energy minister Simonetta Sommaruga informed SonntagsBlick, a Swiss newspaper, assuring that it would match its energy-saving plans with the EU to fight the upcoming winter. The EU’s emergency plan to cut gas usage by 15 per cent to save energy for the winter due to uncertain Russian supplies came into effect on 12 August. Sommaruga warned the Swiss citizens to stock up on candles in case of electricity blackouts during winter. She also said heating would be turned down in public buildings.  
 
In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Lithuania’s finance minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that the country’s implementation of a visa ban for Russian tourists should be followed as an example by the EU states. He also said that those who are being persecuted should only be provided humanitarian visas, and all recreational visas for Russians should be banned.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 15 August, the Philippines’ had discontinued its deal with Russia to buy 16 Mi-17 military transport helicopters worth PHP 12.7 billion due to fear of crossing the US sanctions. Manila is expecting to purchase heavy-lift Chinook helicopters from the US. As per Philippines the cancellation of the contract was due to Ukraine war and also because of the sanctions imposed by the US on Russia. 

References
Ministry of Digital Information of Ukraine, “Update regarding IT army blocking over 600 Russian online platforms,” Telegram, 15 August 2022 
Stefan Korshak, “Wagner Mercenaries Blasted With Long-Range Weapon,” Kyiv Post, 15 August 2022
“Reverse deportation”: Russia returns Ukrainians from Pskov to war-torn Mariupol,” Ukrinform, 15 August 2022
The FSB began the search for grenades and a Kalashnikov military assault rifle that sold to the Russian” LENTA.RU, 15 August 2022
Russia unveils look of its new space station,” RT, 15 August 2022
Russian authorities assessed the refusal of the Lithuanian bank to work with rubles,” LENTA.RU, 15 August 2022
Russia, North Korea to expand bilateral relations: Putin,” Daily Sabah, 15 August 2022
Switzerland could align with EU energy saving drive, energy minister says,” EURACTIV, 15 August 2022
EU could give Russians 'humanitarian' visas only, Lithuanian FM says,” Deutsche Welle, 15 August 2022
Philippines in talks to buy US helicopters after dropping Russia deal,” Daily Sabah, 15 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FINLAND

Coalition differences lead Finland to cancel equal-pay legislation
On 15 August, Finland’s equality minister, Thomas Blomqvist released a statement addressing the cancellation of the equality legislation. The legislation had been to reduce the pay-gap between men and women, but the five-party centre-left coalition government in the parliament could not reach consensus. Finland currently has a 16 per cent average pay gap and was positioned 38th in an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report published in 2021. The deliberation on pay transparency was promised by prime minister Sanna Marin’s programme when she took office in 2019. However, Blomqvist assured: "The work to prevent gender-based pay discrimination and advancing pay equality will continue in other government actions supporting equal pay." (“Finland scraps equal pay legislation amid coalition differences,” Reuters, 15 August 2022) 

GERMANY
German families to see rise in gas bills under new gas surcharge
On 15 August, the Germany organization in charge of coordinating the gas market announced that a surcharge has been imposed at EUR 2.419 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for homes and businesses. The levy will be in effect from 01 October and will continue till April 2022 to help gas importers of the country deal with the soaring gas prices. Because of the tax, on an average, households with a family of four will have to pay and additional tax of about EUR 480. On this issue, economy minister Robert Habeck said: “The alternative would have been the collapse of the German energy market, and with it large parts of the European energy market.” However, economists have warned that this step might accelerate the inflation in Germany, which is already elevated at 8.5 per cent. The chief economist at Commerzbank, Jeorg Krämer, said: "This could cause the inflation rate to exceed 9% in October and November… it significantly lowers customers' purchasing power.” (Markus Wacket and Rachel More “German families face 480 euro rise in gas bills under new levy,” Reuters, 15 August 2022)

ITALY
Femicides on the rise in Italy
On 15 August, The Guardian reported on the rise of femicide in Italy. The report mentions that according to official data published by the interior ministry, 125 femicides have been recorded between 01 August 2021 to 31 July 2022, which shows a 16 per cent rise. In the previous cycle, 108 women had been murdered. Of the 125, 108 were killed in a family context and 68 were killed by their partners of former partners. Italy’s coordinator for the global network against violence against women called One Billion, Luisa Rizzitelli expressed concern about the failure of institutional policy in this regard and said: “The thing which I believe is very terrifying, is that we never been to be able to change direction… There are always around 100 or more femicides each year, and this, in a civilised country, is unacceptable.” (Angela Giuffrida, “Italy records a big increase in femicides over the past year,” The Guardian, 15 August 2022)

THE UK
Truss and Sunak to commence campaign in Scotland to swing voters in their favour
On 16 August, the prime ministerial candidates from the Tory party will head to Perth, Scotland for their respective campaigns. Even though both candidates have set their proposals to appeal to Scottish conservatives, in terms of mobilising the Scottish vote, no clear frontrunner has emerged. Rishi Sunak is promoting greater political scrutiny with Scottish and Welsh civil service leaders answering to the UK parliament annually and also more visibility of UK ministers in Scotland. Meanwhile, Liz Truss has suggested giving members of the Scottish parliament the “parliamentary privilege” to be more robust. Out of the six Scottish Conservative MPs, two former parliamentary aides to Truss, Andrew Bowie and John Lamont are backing Sunak. Ruth Davidson also supported Sunak, but there has also been a growing preference for Truss’s premiership due to her dismissive attitude towards the first minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon. (Esther Webber and Andrew McDonald, “With the Union in peril, Scottish Tories hedge their bets,” POLITICO, 16 August, 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Iran asks for clarifications about renewal of EU-mediated nuclear deal with the US
On 15 August, at an extraordinary meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a detailed report on the draft deal to renew the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was discussed. Iran also sent EU their answer to the draft, focusing on outstanding questions about the future of implementation of sanctions and guarantees around economic engagement. However, Iran’s reply does not have further queries about the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) investigation about the origin of traces of nuclear material found in several sites in Iran. The response submitted by Iran suggests that it wants to continue their negotiations on certain aspects of the deal and does not confirm whether Iran has or will accept the tabled draft. US chief negotiator, Special Envoy Robert Malley also addressed the proposed draft and said: “We are considering the text very carefully to make sure that it lives up to the president’s very clear guidance that he would only sign up to a deal that is consistent with U.S. national security interest.” (Stephanie Liechtenstein and Nahal Toosi,“Iran delivers deadline response to draft nuclear deal,” POLITICO, 15 August 2022)


15 August 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #280

War in Ukraine: Day 171 & 172

Wildfire stopped by firefighters; Taxing excessive profit is opposed by Germany’s finance minister; New maritime strategy to target security threats and risks to the UK; The UK’s prime minister responds to Scotland’s first minister’s query

Photo : Institute for the study of war


War in Ukraine: Day 171 & 172
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 14 August, Ukraine soldiers destroyed a self-propelled howitzer and a T-72 tank and were reported to have killed nine Russian soldiers. However, Russia was successful in shelling eight communities in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. Ukraine’s state border guard service said that the Russian attack was done through mortars, MLRS, tube artillery, grenade launchers, and heavy machine guns. Around 150 explosions were heard, and civilian infrastructure was also damaged.
 
On the same day, Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov requested the Ukraine Defense Contact Group member states to delegate experts in military justice to work on cases of Russian war crime in Ukraine. He said the goal was to create international groups which will analyze the facts and decide how war crimes should be punished. Additionally, Reznikov appealed to the President of the European Court of Human Rights, Robert Spano to account the state of Ukraine’s prisoners of war under Russia’s control.
 
On 13 August, Russia’s troops tried to advance in Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, and Pivdennyi Buh directions but were repelled by Ukraine’s forces. Ukrinform reported that in Avdiivka, Russia’s forces were found to be trying to break through the enemy line and Ukraine’s forces have continued to attack the Russian ground lines of communication. It is to trap and destabilize the Russian attacks along the Dnipro River while launching a counterattack. By targeting the bridges to Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, and the Antonivsky bridge, Ukraine has attempted to cut off the transfer of supplies to the Kherson Oblast, forcing Russia to use pontoon bridges to transfer their supplies. Which will be a challenging task for Russia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 14 August, Russia's spokesperson, Mikhail Ulyanov, stated how Russia has been regularly updating the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. He announced the agency’s upcoming visit to the site, which would help in finding the responsible party for the plant shelling. Ulyanov later asked Ukraine to stop attacking the plant to facilitate a visit from the IAEA mission. Ulyanov said: "An international team cannot be sent to work under continuous artillery shelling. This is the main obstacle.”
 
On 13 August, In the interview with TASS, Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson, Alexander Darchiev said that US's influence on the Ukraine war has been on an increasing trend. He said: “Apart from the large-scale military and financial aid, and also the moral support for the (Ukrainian President Vladimir) Zelensky regime, the Americans are increasingly becoming a direct party to the conflict.” On US participation in the war, Darchiev suggested convincing Zelenskyy to initiate negotiations with Russia and that the US should respect the stance taken by Russia and the warning issued by Lavrov. He also mentioned that the US will need to respect Moscow's interests and statements before bilateral relations between the two countries can be improved. He added that Russia was reacting calmly and not going out of its way to seek peace talks.
 
According to the report released by Rosstat showed that in the second quarter of 2022, the GDP dropped by four per cent in the first full quarter since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, In the last three quarters of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, Russia reported sizeable GDP growth. Although Rosstat did not analyze the reasons behind the drop, it found that wholesale trade had dropped by 15.3 per cent and retail trade had contracted by 9.8 per cent.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 August, a European operator’s group, GIE reported that on 12 August, Germany’s gas storage facilities were over 75 per cent full. Germany which is in the second phase of a three-stage emergency plan has 23.3 billion cubic meters of underground gas storage, which is slightly increased from one-fifth of the country’s gas usage in 2021.
 
On 13 August, Hungary's foreign ministry said that Gazprom has ramped up gas supply to Hungary via the TurkStream pipeline. This comes after Hungary, which is 85 per cent dependent on Russia for gas, firmly opposed the EU sanctions and also lobbied to be exempted from the same. In July, foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto met with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to seek an additional 700 million cubic meters of gas, along with the long-term supply deal with Russia.
 
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia is attempting to attention away from Ukraine’s counteroffensive action in southern Ukraine by renewing its focus on north-eastern Donetsk Oblast. While relying heavily on artillery barrages of surrounding settlements, Russian forces had scaled back offensive actions east of Siversk and conducted sporadic and limited ground attacks. However, recently, Siversk has seen an increase in Russian ground attacks. The continued assaults toward Bakhmut may be intended to attract Ukraine's attention to the Bakhmut-Siversk line in north-eastern Donetsk Oblast to divert Ukraine's attention from critical areas in the South, where Ukrainian troops have conducted effective counterattacks and which could set the stage for an offensive.
 
On 13 August, Czech Republic’s pipeline operator Mero claimed that oil supply from Russia has been resumed on 12 August. This comes after oil delivery to Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic had been stopped via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline because of payment-related issues. On 12 August, Czech Republic’s foreign minister Jan Lipavsky said that his government will look to secure a consensus about the EU-wide ban on visas for Russian citizens. Holding the EU rotating presidency, the Czech Republic backed the call by some Baltic States for the move but it has gained little traction otherwise. German chancellor Olaf Scholz however said that he will not support it.
 
Scholz also spoke about the gas crisis in Europe and said that the continent needed an interconnection linking the Iberian Peninsula with central Europe.  Portugal and Spain supported this. Portugal's prime minister, Antonio Costa said Scholz's comments might catalyze the progress on the pipeline, which he called a priority. Costa also said that Europe was considering an alternative project for a pipeline linking Spain to Italy, to bypass France, who has objections on environmental grounds. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

The Ukraine war has skyrocketed the prices of oil and gas, the Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco has broken its profit records. With a 90 per cent year-on-year increase, the company had a USD 48.4 billion profit in the second quarter of 2022. The world's largest energy exporter however announced that it would keep its dividend the same as before at USD 18.8 billion.
 
On 14 August, Pope Francis addressed the food security crisis, and the problem of world hunger and referred to the issues in the Horn of Africa. He spoke about Somalia and said that the war in Ukraine had taken away the attention from the looming famine in the country.
Earlier in August, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said that a famine might officially be declared in eight regions in Somalia if livestock continued to die and amidst commodity price rise, humanitarian assistance failed to reach the people who needed it.
 
The UN resident coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown also addressed the issue and said that the UN chartered ship, Brave Commander will leave from Pivdennyi for Ethiopia in Africa with 23,000 metric tonnes of wheat. Brown said: “Since the war began, the UN and our humanitarian partners have been prevented from sending supplies to areas temporarily beyond the control of the Government of Ukraine. The partnership between the UN and Government of Ukraine is key to doing more.”

References
Ukrainian gunners destroy nine Russian soldiers, howitzer, tank in southern Ukraine, ” Ukrinform, 14 August 2022
Russia shells eight communities of Sumy, Chernihiv regions from its territory,” Ukrinform, 14 August 2022
Reznikov Appeals to Ramstein Countries to Bring Russian War Criminals to Justice,” Kyiv Post, 14 August 2022
Russian offensive campaign assessment, August 13,” ISW, 13 August, 2022
Enemy attempted to advance in several directions but retreated with losses,” Ukrinform, 13 August 2022
 “Kiev must stop NPP shelling, offer security guarantees to IAEA mission — diplomat,” TASS, 14 August 2022
Visit to NPP may allow IAEA to name those responsible for shelling — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 13 August 2022
US increasingly involved in conflict in Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 13 August 2022
Washington should force Zelensky to return to talks before it’s late — diplomat,” TASS, 13 August 2022
Moscow names condition for ‘normalizing’ relations with US,” RT, 13 August 2022
Russian GDP drops 4% in Q2 -- 1st full quarter of fighting,” AP News, 13 August 2022
Gazprom ramps up gas flows to Hungary via TurkStream pipeline,” Euractiv, 14 August 2022
Germany reaches 75% gas stocks target ahead of schedule,” Reuters, 14 August 2022
Oil shipments from Russia resume to Czechia,” AP News, 13 August 2022
Peter Laca, “Russia Visa Ban in EU Wins Key Backing From Czech Presidency,” Bloomberg, 12 August 2022
Portugal and Spain welcome Scholz's call for gas pipeline from Iberia to central Europe,” Euronews, 12 August 2022
Saudi Aramco: Oil giant tops own record with $48.4bn quarterly profit,” BBC, 14 August 2022
Philip Pullella, “Ukraine war diverts attention from hunger, pope says in Somalia appeal,” Reuters, 14 August 2022
Andrea Shalal, “U.N.-chartered ship in Ukraine readying for journey to Africa,” Reuters, 14 August 2022
Saviano Abreu, “Remarks of the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine Denise Brown on WFP vessel departure from Odesa.” United Nations Ukraine, 14 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Firefighters bring the wildfire under control leading to reopening of highway
On 13 August, firefighters stopped France s wildfires from spreading. With the help of Europe’s reinforcements, the local firefighters stopped the advance in the smoldering fire in the Gironde region's forests. More than 20000 hectares of forests were burned in July in France causing 40000 people to be temporarily forced out of their houses. Storms are expected to bring down the temperatures raving in Europe. European providing firefighters and waterbombing aircraft have helped curb the wildfires tremendously. The halted fire has made the reopening of a stretch of highway possible. (“France halts spread of "monster" wildfire, reopens highway,” Reuters, 14 August 2022)

GERMANY
Windfall taxes will not be collected: Christian Lindner
On 14 August, Germany’s finance minister Christian Lindner stated that the country should not tax surplus companies during an economic and energy crisis. Taxing windfall levies would interfere with market forces. Germany has decided not to levy excessive taxes on energy companies, unlike Italy and the UK. He said Germany has to stick to tight fiscal spending to keep inflation in check. Lindner has published his initiative to try and waive the value-added tax on a new gas levy to spread the extra energy costs more evenly to the EU, which Germany will announce on Monday. The different opinions of the members of the three-party coalition where economy minister Robert Habeck and the greens are opposed to the decision, while chancellor Olaf Scholz of Social Democrats had mentioned that imposing windfall taxes would be challenging. (“Germany's finance minister says he opposes taxing 'excessive' profits,” Reuters, 14 August 2022)
 
THE UK
New maritime strategy counter threats to the marine environment
On 15 August, a new maritime strategy was introduced in the UK to strengthen its capabilities, technologies, and security. The five-year strategy will guide the UK government to approach the threats and risks both domestically and internationally. The new strategy ensures a free, fair, and open maritime domain that has checks on any illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and anything that harms the environment. Immediate addressing of maritime security threats. The seabed mapping technology and the shipping industry are also under focus of the maritime strategy to advance UK’s port facility. (“New maritime security strategy to target latest physical and cyber threats,” gov.uk, 15 August 2022)
 
Boris Johnson addresses the cost-of-living crisis in his letter to Nicola Sturgeon
On 12 August, the UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson replied to Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon regarding her letter on 08 August. He addressed the issues that were placed by Sturgeon in her letter. He mentioned that GBP 15 billion was allocated for providing low-income households with support for the cost-of-living crisis. The tax has been reduced and there have been concessions on energy bills up to GBP 400. As assistance to vulnerable households, the government is providing GBP 1200 this financial year. The aid to the Scottish government has also been assured by Johnson to Sturgeon. (“Prime Minister's letter to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 12 August 2022,” uk.gov, 12 August 2022)
 
Foreign individuals removed to Albania
On 11 August, the UK government extradited 20 foreign criminals on a charter flight to Albania. The offenders were convicted of crimes including possession of an unlicensed offensive weapon in the public, supply of A class, and production of B class drugs. They were sentenced to prison for a combined time of 46 years. According to home secretary Priti Patel, the individuals committed heinous crimes and some were of the offense of failing to produce asylum claims. The Nationality and Borders Act will further deter any illegal entry of foreign individuals into the UK. (“Foreign criminals and illegal entrants to the UK removed to Albania,” uk.gov, 12 August 2022)
 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Brussel’s flower carpet display adapts to heatwave
On 12 August, the flower carpet display in Brussel’s changed its style and showcased heat-resistant blossoms and pot plants to adjust to the heatwave spread across Europe. Flowers like begonias were replaced with Belgian dahlias that contain more water. The 1971 Arabesque shapes inspired the display at the Brussels Grand Palace. The usual cut flower design was changed to potted plants due to its adaptation to the heat and its sustainability in being planted afterward. Volunteers from all around the world spent more than six hours arranging the flower carpet. The flower display is a temporary art show that takes place every two. (“Brussels’ flower carpet blooms despite heatwave,” Euractiv, 13 August 2022)

 


13 August 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #279

War in Ukraine: Day 170

Poland probes into dead fish in River Oder; Latvia and Estonia leave China backed forum; Germany removes forces from Mali

Photo : Reuters photo/Daily Sabah


War in Ukraine: Day 170
By Sai Pranav
 
War on the ground
On 12 August, Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, discussed the global consequences of Russia's aggression and ways to counter them with the Dominican Republic's foreign minister Roberto Alvarez. San Domingo and Ukraine agreed to improve their bilateral relationship. Kuleba appreciated the support of the Dominican Republic amid the war, including within the UN.
 
On 12 August, two draft laws were introduced by Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the extension of general mobilization and martial laws in Ukraine. The contents of the draft are yet to made available for the public.
 
On 11 August, Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on Russia’s attempts to discredit the name of president Zelenskyy. Russia's president approved the information attack initiated to create a foundation in the name of Zelenskyy targeting foreign aid institutions and focusing on a multi-level marketing scheme to recruit European states. The Russians had already designed websites and social media pages for the foundation and have circulated fake photos and comments. The defence ministry urged people to be cautious about rumours and fake news.
 
The GUR also reported on Russia’s industrial mobilization of its defence firms. In Companies such as Rostec, the employees were banned from taking a vacation by Kremlin. Russia's president Vladimir Putin heading the country's Military-Industrial Commission was reported to be planning to change the state defence order program by September. Russia was found to be trying to enlarge its operations in the military-industrial complex.
 
Ukraine's nuclear energy company Enerhoatom announced that there were damages to many radiation sensors in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant complex, and grasses were on fire nearby. No injuries were reported. IAEA concluded that if the reactor were to be shelled, the world would face a nuclear disaster that was much worse than Chornobyl in 1986.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

According to Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Alexander Darchiev, the war over the visa ban is expected to sustain upon continuity of the US action against Russia. This would negatively impact diplomatic workers and make it difficult for Russian citizens to attain US visas. He also said that if the US declares Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, the US will cross a point of no return, which will degrade or even break their bilateral relations leading to severe damages.
 
As per Russia’s statistics agency, Rosstat, the economy has diminished by four per cent in the second quarter, on a year-on-year basis. The GDP of Russia which increased to 3.5 per cent year-on-year in the initial three months of 2022, is not set to face recession upon the effect of western sanctions on its energy and banking sectors.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 August, the UK's defence ministry intelligence reported on the Crimean blast. It found that, although the exact cause of the blast in Saky was unknown, a Russia-controlled military airfield in the western part of Crimea. The eyewitness sighted a giant mushroom cloud, where at least five Su-24 FENCER fighter bombers and three SU-30 FLANKER H multi-role jets were either destroyed or damaged. The damage to Russia's Black Sea Fleet significantly degraded the quality of Russia’s naval and aviation capabilities.
 
The joint acquisition of Triton Power of Jersey by SSE Thermal of the UK and Equinor New Energy Limited of Norway was approved by the European Commission under the EU Merger Regulation. The Commission explained that Triton Power's electricity generating firm had no activities in the European Economic Area, so there would be no concern for the acquisition.
 
On 12 August, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan returned to Turkey after he met with Putin in Sochi. The Confidential meeting between the two leaders drew the attention of the West. Turkey and Russia have decided to deepen their relationship and expand their cooperation in the economic and energy sectors. The EU has expressed its concerns over the relations between Turkey and Russia, and opened the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions on Turkey.
 
On the same day, the European Space Agency (ESA) started its initial dialogue with Elon Musk's SpaceX to use its launcher temporarily after access to Russia's Soyuz rockets was blocked by the war in Ukraine. The private space firm will be an important choice for ESA to close the gap between itself and Japan and India in terms of launching the delayed Ariane 6 rocket.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

Kazakhstan is expected to supply its crude oil through the pipeline of Azerbaijan as an alternative route to the one Russia threatened. Before the Ukraine conflict, crude oil from Kazakhstan was provided through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) line to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, which was threatened to be shut down by a Russian court. Currently, Kazakhstan is trying to supply through the Azeri pipeline in Azerbaijan to circumvent Russia's threat.
 
Ukraine's nuclear energy company Enerhoatom announced that there were damages to many radiation sensors in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant complex, and grasses were on fire nearby. No injuries were reported. IAEA concluded that if the reactor were to be shelled, the world would face a nuclear disaster that was much worse than Chernobyl in 1986. The recent shelling has caused concerns to IAEA and it required immediate access to the power plant.
 
References
Dmytro Kuleba, "update on Ukraine's bilateral relations," Twitter, 12 August 2022,"
Draft Law on Approval of the Decree of the President of Ukraine "On extension of martial law in Ukraine",” itd.rada.gov.ua, 12 August 2022
"Draft Law on Approving the Decree of the President of Ukraine "On Extending the Term of General Mobilization"," itd.rada.gov.ua, 12 August 2022
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 11," ISW, 12 August 2022
"Ukraine Invasion Updates," criticalthreats, 12 August 2022
"The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the United States of spinning the flywheel of the "visa war"," LENTA.RU, 13 August 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Moscow rejects demand to hand over Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” Deutsche Welle, 12 August 2022
"Diplomat says Russia warned US of ‘points of no return’ in bilateral relations," TASS, 13 August 2022
George Wright, "Ukraine war: Crimea blasts significantly hit Russian navy - UK," BBC, 12 August 2022
"Daily News 12 / 08 / 2022," Europa.eu, 12 August 2022
Tim Hepher and Joey Roulette, "Exclusive: Europe eyes Musk's SpaceX to bridge launch gap left by Russia tensions," Reuters, 12 August 2022
Sinem Ozdemir, "Turkey and Russia: A partnership essential to both," Deutsche Welle, 12 August 2022
"Kazakhstan to start selling oil via Azeri pipeline to sidestep Russia," Daily Sabah, 12 August 2022
"Update 91 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine," iaea.org, 12 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

POLAND
Poland’s authorities pledged to investigate the reason behind the dead fish in River Oder
On 11 August, at least 10 tonnes of dead fish were pulled out from a 200-kilometre stretch in the river Oder which flows along Poland and Germany’s border. The agency managing the Polish national waters, State Water Holding, has warned people not to enter the water. The head of the agency, Przemyslaw Daca has called the situation an ecological catastrophe. Regional environmental protection authorities said that water samples from the Oder taken on 28 July showed ‌it had an 80 per cent possibility of containing a toxic substance called Mesitylene, but it was not present in samples taken after 01 August. Poland’s government which has been under pressure about the handling of this issue has pledged to investigate the source and nature of the possible contamination. (Marek Strzelecki, “Dead fish in River Oder on Polish-German border spur contamination probe,” Reuters, 12 August 2022) 
The UK
Wales secretary switched from Sunak to support Truss for the Tory leadership
On 12 August, Wales secretary Sir Robert Buckland became the second person to publicly switch his Tory leadership endorsement from Rishi Sunak to Liz Truss. Initially, Buckland had backed Sunak’s “clear thinking,” but after the change in his stance said: “It is time for positive politics, time to come together, and time for Liz to lead.” He said that while he has worked extensively with both the candidates, as the campaigns progressed, he found Truss’s policies of economic management as the right way to take the UK forward. Buckland appreciated Truss’s commitment to a British bill of rights that overrides the power of Europe’s human rights courts, her supply-side reforms, and her positive politics. (Sarah Haque, “Tory leadership: Buckland first in cabinet to flip support from Sunak to Truss,” The Guardian, 13 August 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Europe reeling under extreme heat and extensive drought conditions
On 12 August, the European Commission Joint Research Center (EC-JRC) warned that the current drought conditions prevailing in Europe could be the worst in 500 years. The centre mentioned that as the situation is ongoing, it has not yet been fully analyzed, but also predicted that the drought might reach 47 per cent of the continent. Two-thirds of the European Union area has issued drought warnings. A senior researcher from the centre, Andrea Toreti who announced the news, also said that this drought has the potential to be worse than the crisis in 2018. As of now, Italy’s Po River, Germany’s Rhine River and the UK’s Thames are recording extremely low levels of water, while southern France and large areas of Spain and Portugal have also been affected. (Zia Weise and Antonia Zimmermann, “Starving hedgehogs, dry rivers, parched farms: The toll of Europe’s worsening drought,” POLITICO, 11 August 2022; Thomas Blade, “Europe's drought could be the worst in 500 years, warns researcherEuronews, 10 August 2022)
 
INTERNATIONAL
China-backed East Europe forum becomes 14+1 after Latvia and Estonia withdraw
On 12 August, Latvia and Estonia reported that they will leave a China-backed cooperation framework of central and eastern European countries and China. The forum had been set up to strengthen relations between China and EU member states and Serbia. The additional objective is to further the Belt and Road Initiative and construct bridges, railways, power plants, and other infrastructure across the Eurasian continent. Both Latvia and Estonia’s governments said that they will continue to strive for bilateral relations with China, but are withdrawing from the 17-country grouping. The move comes after China launched economic and diplomatic retaliation against Lithuania, for strengthening ties with Taiwan. (“Latvia, Estonia leave China-backed East Europe forum,” AP, 12 August 2022)
 
Germany pulls troops from Mali amidst accusations of increased interference from the Mali government
On 12 August, Germany suspended its military mission to Mali. The German deployment in Mali is a part of a United Nations mission called MINUSMA, to observe peacekeeping in the country where terrorists and Russia’s mercenaries continue to destabilize peace. However, relations between Germany and Mali’s military junta have been deteriorating for some time due to Mali’s increasing belligerence towards the West. Mali’s government has also imposed several restrictions like denial of overflight rights. The decision to freeze the deployments comes after the failure to rotate 140 soldiers in Gao. Germany’s defence minister Christine Lambrecht said: “Camara’s actions speak a different language than his words. Therefore, we must take action and suspend the operations of our reconnaissance forces and transport flights, until further notice.” (Ilya Gridneff, “In unstable Sahel, Germany pulls troops out of Mali,” POLITICO, 12 August 2022)
 
EU’s proposal to renew the 2015 nuclear deal weakens US sanctions on Iran
On 12 August, POLITICO reported that the EU’s proposal to renew the nuclear deal between the US and Iran will weaken the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The terms of the proposal will also enable Iran to avoid the scrutiny of the atomic sites. Initially, the terms of the draft submitted by the EU suggested that the Biden government is ready to make greater concessions to secure the deal, but U.S. special envoy for the Iran talks, Rob Malley has since refuted the claim. Malley said: We have not engaged in any negotiation about changing due diligence, know-your-customer, or other U.S. sanctions compliance standards for sanctions… Any report to the contrary is flat out wrong,” (Matthew Karnitsching, “EU proposes lifting pressure on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to revive nuclear deal,” POLITICO, 12 August 2022)


12 August 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #278

War in Ukraine: Day 169

First deep sea mining talks ends with no agreement; European states help France to battle wildfires; Greece request Turkey to help migrants stuck in a river islet; Finnish town accepts to become a nuclear deposit site

Photo : Henrik Montgomery / TT/The local


War in Ukraine: Day 169
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 11 August, in a conference with the Northern European defence ministers, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant shelling, where Russia was found to be increasing the risk of a nuclear disaster. He alleged Russia for not taking responsibility for the attacks. Zelenskyy said that in all the years of operation of the plant, it was the first time, people’s lives were endangered and if the attacks further, it might lead to using of tactical nuclear weapons.

Zaporizhzhya’s regional military administration governor Oleksandr Starukh, said that Russia’s provocations and its continued shelling has destroyed the power grid of the plant, increasing the risk of fires and emergency situations. Thus, creating the need for the readiness of fire units, medical personnel, national police and the evacuation plan. He said: “We must be prepared for any situation, even the worst one. In this case, exercising excessive vigilance is better than allowing risks due to negligence.”

On the same day, the head of Luhansk, Serhii Haidai said that since the capture of Lysychansk by Russia, Ukraine army has not forwarded in the Donetsk region. Haidai mentioned that Russia had tried to penetrate Ukraine’s defences but the progress was minimal. On 11 August, When Russia tried to storm into eight settlements on the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, was repelled successfully by the Ukraine’s army.

On 11 August, satellite images taken by Planet Labs on 10 August of the Saky airbase in Crimea was released. The images show the charred remains of around nine to 11 Russian warplanes and large areas of scorched earth. While Ukraine has refused to formally accept responsibility for the attack nearly 110 km away from the frontline, the defence ministry tweeted a cryptic message warning tourists ‌it was not safe to travel to Crimea. A presidential advisor to Ukraine said that the blasts were either caused by Ukrainian-made long-range weapons or by guerrillas operating in Crimea.

On August 10, the major general of Ukraine’s armed forces, Dmytro Marchenko said that Ukraine’s troops will be able to liberate Kherson by 2022. He said that Ukraine was launching strikes on the Kakhovka bridge in the occupied Kherson region to hamper the transfer of Russia’s military equipment. Marchenko also claimed that once Kherson is freed, the active phase of the war will end, with continuation of local military clashes.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 August, following another shelling at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, Russia’s foreign ministry blamed Ukraine and said that it was an “act of terrorism” which could instigate a disaster worse than the 1989 Chernobyl incident. The foreign ministry deputy spokesperson, Ivan Nechaev said that if a nuclear disaster occurs due to Ukraine’s actions, radiation will not only hit Ukraine and Russia but also harm the neighbouring countries, risking million lives. He said that Russia was looking forward to a mission by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been seeking access to the plant. 

Ivan Nachayev on the Russia’s issue with Switzerland’s neutral status, said that since Switzerland had implemented several anti-Russia sanctions, it cannot be considered as neutral. This follows a request by Switzerland to represent Ukraine in Russia and vice versa to facilitate a negotiation between the two.

The first deputy chairman of the State Duma committee on international affairs, Alexey Chepa responded to Latvia recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. He said this accusation along with suspension the cross-border deal with Russia, denying entry to Russians with Schengen visas and not issuing visas for travel and should make Russia reconsider ending all relations with the country. Moreover, he said, “It is necessary to take maximum economic steps that should put significant pressure on this country.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
Denmark’s defence minister, Morten Bodskov reaffirmed his commitment to support Ukraine at a Copenhagen conference attended by 26 countries. He said that the group will pledge EUR 1.5 billion to Ukraine’s armed forces. Bodskov specified that the money will be used to supply weapons, missiles and ammunition, train Ukrainian soldiers, and also de-mine war-torn areas in Ukraine. The UK announced that an additional EUR 300 million including multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) and precision guided M31A1 missiles will be given to Ukraine.

On 11 August, Turkey’s defence ministry reported that there was a delay in the departure of a ship scheduled to leave from Ukraine's Chornomorsk port. According to the ministry, the bad weather conditions was the reason for the delay. So far, 12 ships have been successful is departing from Ukraine with grains, under the UN-brokered deal between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by Turkey. 

On the same day, Sweden extradited the first person demanded by Turkey as a part of the negotiations for the approval of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. The person in question is a Turkish citizen who had sought asylum in Sweden in 2011 and then protection status in 2022. However, Sweden’s migration agency had rejected both applications and instead detained him. The 30 year old had been convicted in Turkey for bank fraud related offences in 2013 and 2016, and faces a sentence of 14 years in prison. However, he denied the charges saying that he was framed from converting from Islam to Christianity, having Kurdish roots and also for refusing the compulsory military service. 

In Bulgaria, hundreds of protestors gathered in front of the presidential building in Sofia to demonstrate the fear that the interim caretaker government in Bulgaria might revert back to their bonhomie with Russia. The protestors demanded more transparency from the government as many are concerned that due to its anti-West positioning Bulgaria might approach Gazprom for gas supplies, disregarding the EU sanctions.

On the same day, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany is set to face severe challenges in the upcoming winter months. In an conference, Olaf highlighted the measures already adopted by the government for the smooth procurement of energy supplies, to secure alternative sources of supply and to ease the financial hardship of the citizens. Scholz said: “Citizens can count on us not to abandon them.” he expressed his regression towards Germany’s dependency over Russian oil.

On 10 August, EU implemented the ban on Russia’s coal for the foreseeable future. The ban forms part of the sanctions package that was announced by the EU in April. Member states were given time from April to August to secure alternate sources and to increase domestic production.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On the same, Germany’s energy company Uniper announced its shift from receiving LNG from the US to Australia’s Woodside to boost supplies in Europe. Woodside and Uniper have a 13-year deal from 2021, for one million tonnes of LNG per year, which is expected to increase to two million tonnes from 2026. However, the switch, which comes due to the energy crisis in Europe is expected to reduce delivery time by at least 10 days, and also reduce shipping cost. The company’s spokesperson said that they will attempt to bring in the LNG that is currently in the Atlantic and is destined for Asian buyers in China, India and Japan.

On 11 August, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed the increased military activity and controversy at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. He said: "Regrettably, instead of de-escalation, over the past several days there have been reports of further deeply worrying incidents that could, if they continue, lead to disaster.” In a statement Guterres called on Russia and Ukraine to immediately cease all military activity in the region and emphasized on the prevention of further deployments of military forces.

The interim UN Coordinator at the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul, Frederik Kenney, said that they were expecting a “big uptick” in transit applications for grains export from Ukraine. He also mentioned that since now the safe passage of ships has been established, the JCC will do a review of the procedures in the coming weeks to further smoothen the process. Kenney said: "The goal of getting between two and five (million) metric tonnes is achievable.”

In an interview to TASS, China’s ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui backed Russia and accused US to be the “initiator and instigator’ of the war in Ukraine. He said that the US promoting NATO’s expansion and supporting Ukraine’s EU membership has forced Russia into retaliating. 

On the same day, in Moldova, the director of Moldovgaz, Vadim Ceban warned that Moldova will not be able to pay its dues for August. While the company has money to pay for their July supply, Moldovgaz, a subsidiary of the Russian Gazprom, will have to pay USD 18 million for August, that it has not been able to procure yet. While the 20 August deadline approaches, Ceban informed that only USD 14 million has been arranged so far. Gazprom had said earlier that it will not make concessions to Moldova; however, Ceban said that Moldovgaz has already requested for a payment delay. 

References
No one will be able to stop the wind carrying radiation, but all of us can stop the terrorist state of Russia - President's speech at the Conference of Defense Ministers of Northern European Countries and Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 11 August 2022
Emergency Action Plan Updated for Nuclear Plant Occupied by Russians,” Kyiv Post, 11 August 2022
Massively outnumbering Ukraine in weaponry, Russians still can’t seal gains in Donetsk region – official,” Ukrinform, 11 August 2022
Kherson Will be Liberated by End of Year” – Ukrainian Army Major General,” Kyiv Post, 11 August 2022
Dan Sabbagh and Samantha Lock, “Russian warplanes destroyed in Crimea airbase attack, satellite images show,” The Guardian, 11 August 2022
Russia warns of nuclear disaster ‘worse than Chernobyl’,” RT, 11 August 2022
Switzerland no longer a neutral state – Moscow,” RT, 11 August 2022
Russia called for a review of diplomatic relations with Latvia,” lenta.ru, 11 August 2022
Robyn Dixon, “Russia confirms prisoner swap talks as U.S. hopes for Griner, Whelan release,” The Wahsington Post, 11 August 2022
Jacob Gronholt-pedersen, “Western countries pledge $1.55 bln in military aid to Ukraine,” Reuters, 11 August 2022
Grain ship's departure from Ukrainian port delayed due to bad weather- Turkish ministry,” Reuters, 11 August 2022
Sweden extradites man accused of fraud to Turkey following tricky NATO deal,” Euronews, 11 August 2022
Hundreds join anti-Gazprom protest in Bulgarian capital,” AP News, 11 August 2022
Frank Jordans, “Scholz confident Germany can weather energy crisis in winter,” AP News, 11 August 2022
Rachel More and Paul Carrel, “'Count on us': Scholz promises new package to help Germans with energy bills,” Reuters, 11 August 2022
Vera Eckert and Marwa Rashad, “Uniper could swap Australian LNG for Atlantic gas to supply Europe quicker,” Reuters, 11 August 2022
EU ban on Russian coal imports comes into force,” Deutsche Welle, 10 August 2022
UN chief urges immediate halt to military activity near Ukraine nuclear power plant,” Reuters, 11 August 2022
Michelle Nichols, “U.N. expects 'big uptick' in ships wanting to export Ukraine grain,” Reuters, 11 August 2022
China’s envoy to Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, backs Russia in Ukraine war, calls US ‘main instigator’ in crisis,” scmp, 11 August 2022
Moldova Runs out of Cash to Pay Gazprom’s August Bill,” Balkan Insight, 11 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FINLAND
World's first nuclear waste dump site in Eurajoki
On 11 August, a municipality in Finland agreed to allocate space for a nuclear waste dump nearby. The western Finland town named Eurajoki campaigned against several cities having the disposal site for nuclear waste from Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. The bedrock in the town is also compatible and stable to host atomic waste inside as it is two billion years old. The home of three reactors and the Onkalo repository has residents approving the waste site as they trust their leaders. Sweden and Germany take the Onkalo repository system as an example to dump their nuclear waste. Many expect that rest of the European member states to follow Finland's style of using nuclear energy. (“Teri Schultz, “Finns say yes to nuclear waste,” Deutsche Welle, 11 August 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Seabed mining argument at a stalemate after three-week discussion
On 10 August, the Guardian reported that the negotiations on opening the world's first deep sea mines ended in a stalemate on 04 August. The three-week discussion took place at the International Seabed Authority (ISA) headquarters in Kingston, Jamaica. The ISA discussed a two-year rule in the meetings, triggered by Nauru declaring its plan to mine the seabed. The two-year government gave the ISA council to finalize a rulebook that governs all seabed mining activities. Countries like Spain, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Chile asked ISA to stop the race toward deep-sea mining as it would cause detrimental effects on the environment. (“Deep-sea mining talks end with no agreement on environmental rules,” the Guardian, 10 August 2022)
 
TECHNOLOGY
The EU protects Meta from being shut down in Europe
On 10 August, POLITICO reported that the EU had rejected the Irish draft to shut down meta from Europe because it shared European data with the US. Ireland's private regulators wanted to block Facebook's parent company, Meta, from using the last legal mechanism called standard contractual clauses (SCCs) to transfer vast amounts of data like family images and direct messages to the US. Ireland's decision was made after the European Court of Justice ruled that significant data flows between Europe and the US illegal due to the exposure of Europeans to the Washington government surveillance risks. Many regulators of other EU states are opposed to the Irish draft after being reviewed. Ireland has to form another draft to block the data transfer, but it might take a lot of time to come into effect in the EU. In the meantime, companies such as Meta will be able to use the new EU-US data deal. (Vincent Manancourt “Europe staves off Facebook blackout — for now,” POLITICO, 10 August 2022)

REGIONAL
Greece asks for assistance from Turkey to transport migrants from the Evros river islet
On 11 August, Athens requested Ankara's assistance in providing medical aid to the 40 migrants abandoned on a river islet inside a restricted military zone at their border earlier. A report states that the Evros river islet is outside Greece's sovereignty. The authorities asked the Turkish officials to take necessary action to rescue the stuck migrants from the islet. Although police do not have trace of the migrants, despite the consecutive reports stating on their existence in different locations of the islet. Rejection by Greece and Turkey from entering their respective country pushed the migrants to the Evros river Islet. (Costas Kantouris, “Greece asks Turkey to help migrants reported stuck on islet,” AP, 11 August 2022)
 
The EU sends more firefighters to counter France’s wildfire
On 11 August, the European Commission announced that firefighters were being sent from Germany, Greece, Poland, Austria, and Romania to France to douse the wildfire in the south of Bordeaux, which had been reignited even though it was brought under control earlier. France had also requested firefighters' assistance from the EU and data from the bloc's Copernicus satellite on charred areas. France is also set to receive four firefighting aircraft in Greece and Sweden. Around 6800 hectares of land have been destroyed, and 10000 firefighters have been battling fires across France. Climate scientists warn that extreme temperatures are expected in the future as the Earth gets warmer due to envision of greenhouse gases by human activities. Not only France but also Spain and Portugal are battling wildfires across their nation. (“European firefighters rush to France's aid as wildfires rage,” Deutsche Welle, 11 August 2022)


11 August 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #277

War in Ukraine: Day 168

Kosovo prime minister issues warning over conflict with Serbia; Sweden, the largest power exporter in EU; Wildfires return in France

Photo : PAP/Viacheslav Ratynskyi


War in Ukraine: Day 167
By Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 11 August, Ukraine’s armed forced reported that the first stage of Russia-Belarus joint operational-tactical training with live fire is planned will be held in Volyn and Polissya directions. It observed that attacks with tanks, tubes, and rocket artillery continue in Kharkiv, Siversk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhya and Southern Buh. There has been a vigilance on the two Kalibr sea-launched cruise missile carriers in the Black Sea. According to the Ukraine army, Russia's forces was found that despite its offensive position, it has lost and has been retreating in Veterynarne-Udy, Novoluhanske-Spirne, Volodymyrivka-Yakovlivkaand Striapivka-Soledar. Apart from that, Russian troops have not faced losses in the Donetsk-Pisky while continuing its offensive attacks.
 
On 10 Aug, Ukraine's agricultural ministry announced that the country's export of oilseed and vegetable oil rose to 22.7 per cent in July when compared to June by 2.66 million tonnes due to increased shipment of wheat and barley shipments after the block on the Black Sea ports were removed.  The ministry mentioned that the overall export of grains decreased by almost 52 per cent with 2.2 million tonnes till now. The grain harvest also decreased from 86 million tonnes in 2021 to 50 million tonnes in 2022 due to the loss of land to Russian invaders.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 August, Lenta reported that Russia has been using merchant ships to transport military equipment through Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, bypassing sanctions placed by Turkey in February. The US and the EU intelligence discovered that through the Black Sea, merchant ship Sparta II which arrived at Novorossiysk from the Tartus port in Syria was seen carrying 11 military equipment. Upon which the US and the EU have demanded the Turkish officials for not stopping the transportation and asked Turkey to end its deal with Russia over purchase of F-16 fighter jets.
 
On the same day, Lenta reported that Russia has been using merchant ships to transport military equipment through Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, bypassing sanctions placed by Turkey on Moscow due to its invasion of Ukraine in September. The US and the EU intelligence discovered that through the Black Sea, merchant ship Sparta II which arrived at Novorossiysk from the Tartus port in Syria was seen carrying 11 military equipment. Authorities from the EU and the US demanded that the Turkish officials explain why they did not stop the transportation. They were also told to end the deal that Turkey had with Russia in purchasing F-16 fighter jets.
 
Also on the same day, Russia's Novatek, a second largest gas producer in Russia, announced its plans to purchase a floating power plant from the Turkish energy company Karpowership for the first line of the country's huge Arctic LNG 2 project. Baker Hughes, US’s largest oil field service company, which was supposed to be supplying LNG and electricity to the Arctic LNG 2 project has backed out due to the sanctions placed on Russia. The Karpowership is one of the largest operating floating power plants in the world and Russia is expected to continue with the application of the second and third line of the project if the method of ship-mounted gas-fired power plants is used.
 
On the same day, Russian forces reported that, Germany supplied Gepard anti-aircraft systems was found to be used by the Ukraine's Armed Forces in the Mykolaiv region were destroyed by Moscow's troops, according to Russia's defence ministry. The ministry claimed claimed that it had destroyed three Ukrainian warplanes in the Mykolaiv region and seven HIMARS missiles in the Kherson region.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 10 August, Estonia’s ministry of foreign affairs reported that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was sighted in the country's aerospace which did not hold a permission. The ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in Estonia on the same to discuss on the the violation that took place in the Koidula border crossing. Estonia condemned Russia's attack on Ukraine strongly from the start, and has found the incident to be regrettable and unacceptable. Russian aircraft was also reported to be violating Finnish aerospace according to Finland's ministry of defence.
 
According to Denmark's defence ministry, it stated that Copenhagen would send 130 soldiers to train, instruct and educate the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Force in the UK. For the training in the UK, Denmak has allocated DKK 100 million. Apart from this Finland and Sweden announced its plan to send its soldiers to help training the Ukraine’s force.
 
On 09 August, Slovenia's president Borut Pahor spoke at the 13th Ambassadors Conference in Turkey's capital, Ankara. He said that despite Russia and Slovenia had a good relation before the war, at current scenario Ljubljana has to be cautious towards Russia. He also said that Slovenia was not threatened by Russia, but observed that Europe would see formation of new divisions and blocs. Pahor predicted that most of the European states will unite against Russia and the possibility of peaceful negotiations was possible only upon shift in Russian policies.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 10 August, IAEA evaluated the situation at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant following shelling affecting the infrastructure of the complex. It said that there is no immediate threat to the plant but it warned about the war jeopardizing the nuclear safety and security of Zaporizhzhia. It also said that a team should be sent to stabilize the nuclear safety and security of the plant. 
 
On the same day, the G7 countries demanded Russia to hand over Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and other atomic reactors as well to Ukraine as Russian presence harms the power plants which in turn causes safety concerns. It condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and asked Moscow to withdraw its troops and urged Russia to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to G7: “we demand that Russia immediately hand back full control to its rightful sovereign owner, Ukraine, of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant as well as of all nuclear facilities within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders to ensure their safe and secure operations.”

References
"Enemy trying to resume offensive in Donetsk–Pisky direction," Ukrinform, 10 August 2022
"Ukraine sees big increase in agriculture exports in July," Reuters, 10 August 2022
"Russia transported weapons through the Turkish straits in defiance of the ban," LENTA.RU, 10 August 2022
"Russian defence ministry says it destroyed German-made anti-aircraft system in Mykolaiv region," Reuters, 10 August 2022
Gergely Szakacs and Jan Lopatka "Russian oil pipeline flows resume after Hungary's MOL settles transit bill," Reuters, 10 August 2022
"Novatek to order Turkish floating power plant for Russia’s Arctic LNG 2," Daily Sabah, 10 August 2020
"Estonia announced the violation of airspace by the Russian Mi-8," LENTA.RU, 10 August 2022
"EU must fulfill refugee deal obligations: Slovenian President Pahor," Daily Sabah, 10 August 2020
"Denmark to help train Ukrainian soldiers in Britain," Ukrinform, 10 August 2022
"IAEA experts assess there is no immediate threat to nuclear safety at Zaporizhzhia NPP," Ukrinform, 10 August 2022
"G7 top diplomats call on Russia to hand over Zaporozhye NPP to Ukraine — statement," TASS, 10 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
 
GREECE
Greece exits EU’s surveillance programme after 12 years
On 10 August, the European Commission confirmed that Greece will exit the EU’s surveillance programme after 12 years. In 2010, Greece requested an international bailout to prevent the complete collapse of its economy. From 2010 to 2015, the EU in collaboration with the IMF had given Greece more than EUR 260 billion, instead of significant economic reforms. In 2018, the third bailout agreement came to an end after which Greece entered the enhanced surveillance framework to facilitate the monitoring of the reform process. However, on 02 August, European Commission said that Greece had shown effective reform implementation even under challenging circumstances like the COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The letter also mentioned that maintaining enhanced surveillance on Greece would no longer be justified because it had already delivered on most of its policy commitments. (“Greece 'turning a page' as it exits enhanced surveillance programme 12 years after bailout,” Euronews, 10 August 2022)
 
Boat with migrants capsizes in Greece leaving 29 missing
On 10 August, a coast guard spokesperson in Greece, Nikos Kokkalas, reported that more
then a dozen migrants were missing after the boat carrying them capsized in the Aegean Sea. However, 29 migrants were rescued by the coastguards. The boat sank in the southern Aegean off the Karpathos island, and the rescue mission was carried on amid strong winds. The rescued migrants, belonging to Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq said that their boat was carrying 60-80 people. They also mentioned that they had set sail from Antalya in Turkey and had the objective of reaching Italy. (“Dozens missing after Greece rescues 29 migrants from capsized boat,” Reuters, 10 August 2022)
 
KOSOVO
Kosovo’s prime minister issue warning on conflict escalation with Serbia
On 10 August, Kosovo's prime minister Albin Kurti said that Kosovo was prepared to stand against any possible attack by Serbia, amidst worsening bilateral relations between the states. Kurti warned that the conflict might even escalate into an armed one, over the issue of minority Serbs in Kosovo. Tensions between the states flared after Kosovo mandated Serbs backed by Belgrade and living in North Kosovo, to start using Pristina-issued license plates. However, due to pressure from the US and the EU, Kurti was forced to postpone the implementation of the license plate rule until 01 September. Regarding the bilateral relations with Serbia, Kurti said:  “We are vigilant, but not afraid… I am not saying they are going to attack us this week or next, but it would be totally irresponsible to exclude...the possibility of rising tensions and new conflicts.” ( "Kosovo PM says tensions with Serbs in north could escalate, warns of possible new conflict," Reuters, 10 August 2022)
 
REGIONAL 
Eurostat reports on the EU’s new residence permits in 2021
On 09 August, Eurostat reported that new residence permits issued in the European Union reached pre-pandemic levels since COVID-19. In 2021, permits issued to non-EU citizens jumped 31 per cent to 2,952,300. Poland recorded the highest number of permits granted at 1.3 million, where employment and education were the main drivers. Poland was followed by Spain, France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands and these countries made up about three-quarters of all the permits granted in 2021. Ukrainians sought the most number of residence permits at 30 per cent, followed by citizens of Morocco and Belarus accounting together for 10 per cent. (“New residence permits in EU rose to approach pre-pandemic levels in 2021,” Euractiv, 10 August 2022)
 
Sweden overtakes France to become the largest net power exporter
On 10 August, energy analyst firm EnAppSys reported that Sweden has overtaken France as Europe's largest electricity exporter in the first part of 2022. While historically France exports more power than it imports, this year, France's issues with its nuclear fleet and high gas prices exaggerated France's net importer status. Sweden’s electricity mostly comes from nuclear, hydro, and biofuels, and increasingly from the wind too. In 2022, it has exported 16 terawatt-hours, primarily to Denmark and Finland, thus making it Europe’s biggest net exporter. ("Sweden tops France as Europe's largest net power exporter," Reuters, 10 August 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Wildfire reignites in France while the UK issues drought warning
On 10 August, around 10,000 people were evacuated from the Gironde region in south-west France, after wildfires, reignited again after July. So far, due to the wildfires, around 40,000 people have been evacuated from the region. The previous blazes in Gironde had destroyed more than 20,000 hectares of pine forests. The French authorities increased the number of firefighters deployed to the region to 1,000 who were supported by water-spraying planes. Moreover, due to the heat, water restrictions have been implemented in almost all 96 of their mainland departments to deal with the ‘historic’ drought in France. On the same issue, to deal with yet another wave of extreme heat and the resultant drought conditions, UK’s meteorological agency issued an amber alert. Thames Water, the largest water supplier in the UK also issued a warning about imminent water restrictions like a hosepipe ban. (“Thousands evacuated as smouldering French wildfire reignites,” The Guardian, 10 August 2022; “UK meteorologists, water firms issue warnings as extreme heatwave looms,” Euractiv, 10 August 2022)


10 August 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #276

War in Ukraine: Day 167

Erdogan inaugurates Ankara's largest drilling ship; The UK to face more energy price increase; Felixstowe Dock workers go on a strike

Photo : REUTERS/BBC


War in Ukraine: Day 167
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on The Ground
On 09 August, in an interview with the Washington Post, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the West to consider a blanket ban for Russian travellers. He argued that the current sanctions were weak and have to be furthered to exert more pressure on Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy said that Russians should “live in their own world until they change their philosophy.”

After explosions were reported in a military airport in Crimea, Zelenskyy said that the war with Russia “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea.” Though he did not claim responsibility about the blasts, he said that Crimea rightfully belonged to Ukraine. He added that while they did not know when the liberation of Crimea might occur, Ukraine was taking necessary steps in that regard.

The deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on national security, defence and national intelligence, Yuriy Mysiahin reported that the armed forces of Ukraine had received 50 new Kirpi armoured vehicles from Turkey. The vehicles were equipped with a machine gun, a fire extinguishing system and a mine protection system and can carry 12 military personnel and crew. Another batch of 150 is scheduled to arrive soon.

On 08 August, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, announced the construction of a new Bayraktar factory in Ukraine. He said that the parent company from Turkey, Baykar had already bought the necessary land and established a company in Ukraine. He also noted that the project for the manufacturing plant had been approved.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 August, blasts were reported at the Saki military airport, near Novofedorovka city in Crimea which killed one person and injured a few. Initially neither Russia, not Ukraine claimed responsibility for the blasts, but later Russia’s defence ministry said that the explosions resulted from the detonation of aviation ammunition. The claim has not been verified yet. However, if it is revealed that it was an attack by Ukraine, it might lead to further escalation, as this is the first explosion in Crimea, which has been under Russia’s control since 2014.

The defence ministry spokesperson, lieutenant general Igor Konashekov spoke about the mercenaries involved in the fight in Ukraine. He said that around 2,000 foreign mercenaries were fighting in Ukraine. Konashekov mentioned that due to the offensive launched by the armed forces and the people’s militias in the LPR and the DPR, the number had reduced from 2,741 to 2,192 in the past month. 

In response to Zelenskyy’s request of a blanket travel ban, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that it was irrational on Russians. He also questioned if Europe should consider the request and added: "This can only be seen extremely negatively. Any attempt to isolate Russia or Russians is a process that has no prospects."

On 09 August, Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft said that the supply of crude oil to three EU members states had been suspended by Ukraine from 04 August. It was due to Ukraine’s UkrTransNafta, which controls the part of the Druzhba pipeline in Ukraine, had refused payment sent by Transneft via the sanctioned Gazprombank. The stopping of supplies will affect Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic, who were most reliant on the Druzhba pipeline for oil. Hungary’s energy firm MOL said that it has enough reserves till september, after which it will consider importing oil via the Adria pipeline that connects the Hungary with Croatia. Slovakia’s options are more limited as it will have to import from Hungary. Whereas for Czech Republic it can import oil from the Trieste in Italy via the Transalpine pipeline, but it is confident over resumption of supply from Druzhba pipeline.

On 08 August, Russia’s communications watchdog, Roskomnadzor reported that they have censored around 138,000 websites since Russia’s invasion of Europe in February. Prosecutor general Igor Krasnov said that the move comes after over 300 requests came from prosecutors to combat “fake news” against Russia. He also said: “After the start of the special military operation, we have strengthened our counteraction to the spread of calls for extremism and terrorism, mass riots and fake news on the internet.”

On the same day, Russia's foreign ministry announced that Russia will temporarily withdraw from the inspection regime as mandated by the START nuclear disarmament treaty, until the "existing problematic issues" are resolved. The ministry claimed that the US was getting undue advantage as the Western sanctions were preventing Russian inspection on American sites. The ministry also reiterated that Russia was fully committed to the provisions of the start treaty. In a statement, the ministry stated: “We would like to emphasize that the measures we have taken are temporary. Russia is fully committed to complying with all the provisions of the START Treaty, which in our eyes is the most important instrument for maintaining international security and stability.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 09 August, Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas called on the Schengen area countries to stop issuing tourist visas to Russian travellers. She said that travelling to Europe was a privilege and not a human right. The foreign affairs ministry announced that Estonia had temporarily stopped issuing tourist visas to Russia. On 08 August, a similar stance was taken by Finland's prime minister Sanna Marin, claimed that this issue will be discussed during the upcoming European Council meetings, and her position will be to introduce a travel restriction for Europe.

On the same day, Turkey’s defence ministry reported that two more ships carrying grains from Ukraine left from the Chornomorsk port, Ocean Lion which is the largest ship to leave will take corn to South Korea, while Rahmi Yagci will carry sunflower meal to Istanbul. So far, 12 ships have been granted a safe passage as per the deal signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN.

On 09 August, the EU’s emergency gas plan came into force. As per the plan, the member states will have to reduce their gas consumption by 15 per cent by March 2023. The plan also entails ‘savings targets’ which could be made mandatory if there is a supply emergency. It aims to save 45 billion cubic meters of gas but also has several opt-out options available for individual countries as well. In Germany, the head of the federal agency responsible for electricity, gas, rail, mail and telecommunications, Klaus Muller said that the plan could help stop the rising prices of gas.

Germany’s economy ministry claimed that none of the Russian individuals sanctioned by the EU have declared their assets to Germany’s authorities, as mandated by sanctions law. Around EUR 4.28 billion belonging to the sanctioned oligarchs have been frozen in Germany. If they do not declare their assets, they might be fined or may be sentenced to a year in prison.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On the same day, Russia launched the Iranian Khayyam satellite from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Concerns have been raised about whether Russia will use the satellite for surveillance of military targets in Ukraine. However, the Iranian Space Agency confirmed that they would be controlling the satellite “from day one”, and no third country will be able to access the information sent by the satellite to its encrypted algorithm. The Agency also clarified that the satellite will be used to improve productivity of the agriculture industry, preempt and manage natural disasters, survey water resources, monitor deforestation, mining explorations and border areas. The Communications and Information Technology Minister Issa Zarepour said that the launch will enhance the strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia in the space industry.

China to meet the global food security crisis, has been preparing for agricultural self-sufficiency. The ministry of agriculture and rural affairs released the “national seed industry formation” list of 69 breeding companies and institutions in the crop sector; 86 firms in the livestock and poultry sector; and 121 companies in aquaculture. Such companies will be given more resources technology and capital to create an independent seed industry.

References
Zelenskyy calls on West to ban all Russian travellers,” The Washington Post, 08 August 2022
Bayraktar Drone Factory to be Built in Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 09 August 2022
Armed Forces receive first batch of 50 Kirpi armored vehicles from Turkey,” Ukrinform, 09 August 2022
Russian military comments on blasts in Crimea,” RT, 09 August 2022
Explosions Hit Military Airport In Ukraine's Russia-Annexed Crimea, Killing One Person,” rferl, 09 August 2022
Russian Defense Ministry reveals number of foreign mercenaries fighting for Kiev,” TASS, 09 August 2022
Russia Launches Iranian Satellite Amid Ukraine War Concerns,” The Moscow Times, 09 August 2022
Russia launches Iranian satellite into space amid Western concerns,” Daily Sabah 09 August 2022
Kremlin says Zelenskiy call for Western ban on all Russians is irrational,” Reuters, 09 August 2022
Russia Has Blocked 138K Websites Since Ukraine Invasion, Prosecutor Says,” The Moscow Times, 08 August 2022
Russia suspends US inspections of nuclear military sites,” RT, 08 August 2022
Ukraine round-up: Blasts in Crimea and travel dispute,” BBC, 10 August 2022
Finnish, Estonian PMs both find Russian tourism in Europe should be curbed,” ERR News, 09 August 2022
Two more grain ships leave Ukraine, bringing total to 12 under new deal,” Reuters, 09 August 2022
EU's emergency gas plan comes into force,” Deutsche Welle, 09 August 2022
Christian Kraemer, “Russians under sanctions fail to declare assets in line with German law,” Reuters, 09 August 2022
Homegrown Khayyam satellite put into orbit,” Tehran Times, 09 August 2022
Orange Wang, “China’s food-security push gets a boost with new list of 276 state-supported breeders, seed producers,” scmp, 09 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

THE UK
Unite union strike after the negotiation fail 
On 08 August, workers at Felixstowe Dock and Railway Company turned down the offer of EUR 500 in addition to a seven per cent wage increase after talks with the organizations. The Unite union will take strikes due to the failure of the negotiations. The Union said that the Felixstowe dock is a hugely profitable business but does not pay enough to its employees. The union had rejected the proposal and did not put it to its members. Due to the higher cost of living, the workers have asked for an increase in wage which was met with a poor response from the company. ("Felixstowe port workers to strike after talks fail," BBC, 09 August 2022)

Rise in energy price leaves households in debts
On 09 August, BBC reported that households in the UK are facing debts with their energy companies as opposed to 2021. The average debt of a household was found to be EUR 206 when the comparison site Uswitch surveyed 2000. Energy experts believe that the prices will be even higher in October. The government is advising its citizens to tell if they are unable to meet the energy prices. Plans to help out the people of the UK have been put forward by the government. The government is concerned about over eight million people who would not be able to afford to pay energy prices during winter. It has set out plans to protect every household during winter by providing EUR 400 to help with the rising fuel bills. There is also EUR 650 for the eight million low-income households and EUR 150 for disabled people. Pensioners also get an additional EUR 300. (Simon Read, “Households already in debt as energy bills rise,” BBC, 09 August 2022)

TURKEY
A new drilling ship is sent to the eastern Mediterranean by Ankara
On 09 August, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan inaugurated Ankara's new drilling ship, Abdulhamid Han, the country's largest undersea hydrocarbon drill ship. In his inaugural address, he said that the ship would be sent to an area in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, northwest of Cyprus.  The ship would begin drilling in Turkey's southwestern Antalya province off the coast of Gazipasa, at the Yorukler-1 well. The ship is named after an Ottoman sultan. Erdogan said that the ship would become a symbol of a new vision for Turkey in the area of energy. It will reduce its dependency on Russian energy. He also said that Turkey has the right to do its business on its border and does not need any permission from Greece or Cyprus. Turkey has a conflict with Cyprus and Greece over maritime borders and the drilling is likely to spark a new dispute. (“Turkey sends new drill ship to eastern Mediterranean,” Deutsche Welle, 09 August 2022)

REGIONAL
Italy and Slovenia fight for balsamic vinegar 
On 09 August, Italy's government initiated an infringement proceeding against Slovenia to defend its popular and geographically protected balsamic vinegar. Slovenia informing the European Commission about its plan to standardize its vinegar production, merchandising wine vinegar mixed with concentrated fruit juice as balsamic vinegar in 2021 angered Italy causing a rift between the two nations. Aceto balsamico di Modena (balsamic vinegar of Modena) is a term that can be used only by producers in Modena and the Emilia-Romagna region. The Mario Draghi administration authorized the continuation of the proceedings, which requires consultation with the Commission and taking the case to the court of justice of the EU (CJEU) if necessary. Italy perceived Slovenia's action as an illicit attack on the country's food and agricultural industry and would do everything to defend the nation. Italy has already lost a legal battle with a German company regarding the term balsamico. The CJEU ruled the case in favour of the company as the terms were non geographic. (Angela Giuffrida, "Sour grapes: Italy takes Slovenia to court over balsamic vinegar," The Guardian, 09 August 2022)

 


09 August 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #275

War in Ukraine: Day 166

France’s extends the time limit for five nuclear plants; Germany's Rhine’s River at lowest water level ; No more concessions for Poland's pandemic recovery fund; Drought conditions increase due to prolonged heatwaves

Photo : REUTERS/BBC


War in Ukraine: Day 166
By Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 08 August, an ammunition depot of Russia along with its special troops were eliminated by Ukraine's National Guard and Armed Forces using aerial reconnaissance and artillery strikes along with tanks. Ukraine struck the depot located north of the Kharkiv region. Soldiers conducting reconnaissance discovered a Russian base and also sighted the unloading of artillery weapons. The National Guards shared the coordinates of the Russian forces with the army. Russia and its troops were forced to retreat from the Snake Island due to constant firing by Ukraine's forces which was recorded by a UAV camera. Later, Ukraine demilitarized Russian artillery ammunition and the depot.
 
On the same day, the city of Sloviansk near the Donetsk region experienced a severe water shortage due to damage on water infrastructures from war. The people of Sloviansk in the Donbas region are concerned about the water shortages during winter. Since gas has been cut off from the city, only one source water pump is available. Hence, the fear of acute water shortage during winter is evident and Ukrainian officials are trying to evacuate.
 
Also on the same day, two more ships from Ukraine's Black Sea ports departed carrying corn and soybeans. A total of ten ships left the Black Sea ports of Ukraine after the block was removed by Russia following the grain export deal. The Sacura ship which was carrying 11000 tonnes of soybeans left the Pivdennyi port and headed to Italy. Meanwhile, Arizona departed Chornomorsk carrying 48,458 tonnes of corn to Iskenderun in southern Turkey. The grain export is smoothly run even though the attacks on Ukraine by the Russian forces continue.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 August, Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the West was trying to eliminate Russia by launching an aggressive geopolitical process. He believes that the conflict between Russia-Georgia in 2008 and Russia-Ukraine in 2022 are related in a way that the west had a part in staging the disputes. He said that the US is a common player in both the conflict by providing funds, training of the army and also weapons to both Georgia and now Ukraine.
 
On 08 August, Ukraine's army attacked the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnepr River overnight. The bridge is a connection between the Russian-controlled Kherson region and the rest of southern Ukraine. The bridge was attacked in a similar fashion earlier where US-made HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems were used to strike launch artillery attacks.
 
On the same day, 700 representatives of the Zaporizhzhya region in Ukraine approved holding a referendum to accede to Russia. The regional forum for a plebiscite to be held in the city of Melitopol was signed to be organized, where the administrators suggest the referendum to place by mid-September.
 
Russia's defence ministry blamed Ukraine for the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant which resulted in damaging high voltage power lines and forcing the power station to reduce its output. Kyiv in turn blamed Russia for the attack and denied its part in the shelling. Russia asked the western countries that influence Ukraine to tell Kyiv to stop attacking the nuclear plant.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 08 August, a report by the UK's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) discovered that Russia would be unable to continue its warfare if the west decides to tighten export controls. Most of Russia's high-tech weapons and communication systems were dependent on west-made microelectronics. Moscow had circumvented all the sanctions and export controls to obtain said parts but if the west were to close the loophole, Russia's military power would be degraded. RUSI had discovered many west-made components in Russian weaponry through examining Russian military systems that were destroyed or captured. It said that some of the major parts were manufactured in the US, Germany, the UK, France and Switzerland. Tightening the export control will damage the Russian military as well as communication systems.
 
Also on 08 August, Ukraine acquired three German Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems for the first time from Berlin. The anti-aircraft systems are planned to be used to defend important infrastructure facilities in the country. The air defence systems that are operated by three-man crews, can hit targets up to four kilometres. The anti-aircraft systems were the first to be given by Germany to Ukraine.
 
On 08 August, the US announced another USD one billion aid to Ukraine. The Biden administration pledged that it would deliver rockets, ammunition, artillery weapons, and other arms directly from the department of defence stocks for Ukraine's army. Announcement comes after the Russian military movement was observed in the direction of the southern port cities of Ukraine to fight back Kyiv's counteroffensive. The aid includes HIMARS, thousands of artillery rounds, mortar systems, javelins and other armaments. So far, the total US aid comes to USD nine billion since the war.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 08 August, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres prompted countries with nuclear weapons to commit to their no-first-use rule. He warned the nations not to use their atomic arsenal as the nuclear arms race has resumed due to rising global tensions. Guterres appreciated the works of the IAEA to stabilize the situation in Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after attacks on the same facility. He also said that the money used in the arms race should be spent on other pressing issues such as climate change, poverty, and addressing the needs of international communities.
 
Also on 08 August, Ukraine demanded that the zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant should be deemed demilitarized under the control of foreign peacekeepers. The shelling near the power plant had destroyed some of the structures in the complex resulting in a warning about nuclear disaster risk from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 500 Russian soldiers and 50 pieces of military equipment were seen to be deployed at Zaporizhzhia. The plant was noted to be deteriorating in recent days. Both Ukraine and Russia traded blame for the attack on the nuclear plant. Russia’s state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported that Moscow is ready to allow a visit from IAEA inspectors to check on the power plant.

References
"Russian ammo depot destroyed in northern part of Kharkiv region," Ukrinform, 08 August 2022
Justin Spike, "Water crisis looms for eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk," Associated Press, 08 August 2022
"Shift in war’s front seen as grain leaves Ukraine; plant hit," scmp, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine Calls for Demilitarization of Occupied Nuclear Plant," Kyiv Post, 08 August 2022
"West wants to destroy Russia – former president," Russian Times, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine renews strikes on key bridge," Russian Times, 08 August 2022
"Ukrainian region announces vote on joining Russia," Russian Times, 08 August 2022
"Russia says Ukraine shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on Sunday," the Jakarta Post, 08 August 2022
"Russia highly likely deploying anti-personnel mines in Donbas, UK says," Reuters, 08 August 2022
Frank Gardner, "Tighter export controls on electronics could hamper Russia's war effort - report," BBC, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine war: US announces another billion dollar military aid package," euronews, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine receives three German anti-aircraft systems," Reuters, 08 August 2022
"UN chief urges nuke powers to abide by no-first-use pledge," Associated Press, 08 August 2022
"Calls for access, demilitarized zone at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant," Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

FRANCE
France extends waiver for five nuclear power plants to function
On 08 August, Reuters reported that French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) has extended their temporary waivers to Bugey, Saint Alban, Tricastin, Blayais and Golfech power plants. As per the waiver, these power stations will be allowed to discharge their hot water into rivers as the country prepares for the fourth heatwave in 2022. In a statement ASN said: "The government considers that it is a public necessity to... maintain the production of these five power stations until Sept. 11 despite the exceptional weather conditions.” (“France tweaks rules to keep nuclear plants running during heatwave,” Reuter, 08 August 2022)

GERMANY
Gerhard Schroder survives expulsion from party due to pro-Putin ties
On 08 August, an internal Social Democrats (SPD) arbitration committee rejected an appeal to expel the controversial ex chancellor, Gerhard Schroder. The committee said that he has not been found guilty of violating any party rules. 17 branches of the SPD had submitted their request to oust Schroder, citing his ties to Russia as damaging for the party. POLITICO reports that Schroder who did not appear for the expulsion proceedings, met with Putin twice, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While this committee has found him not guilty, the decision can be appealed at a superior arbitration committee in the SPD within two weeks. (Wilhelmine Preussen, “Gerhard Schröder survives move to boot him from Germany’s Social Democrats,” POLITICO, 08 August 2022) 

German industries suffer due to low water levels in Rhine River
On 08 August, Deutsche Welle reported on the problems being faced by Germany because of the low water levels in the Rhine River. As the Rhine is an important shipping route for raw materials like grains, chemicals, minerals, coal and oil products, the low water levels have hampered industries and their production. The transport minister Volker Wissing has called for the river to be dredged to facilitate the passage of ships. Previously, Wissing had campaigned for the deepening of the Rhine between St. Goar and Mainz but now given the disruptions in the supply chain, the project might be undertaken soon. (“Rhine's low water levels hit German shipping, minister touts dredging,” Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2022)

POLAND
Popular leader refuses to make any further concessions to unlock COVID-19 recovery funds
On 08 August, POLITICO reported that Poland’s most popular leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that his government will not attempt to meet the European Commission’s rule of law demands any further. Kaczynski said that Poland had met its side of the deal, but the EUR 35 billion of Poland’s COVID-19 recovery funds have not been unlocked yet, even after showcasing “maximum goodwill.” However, commission president, Ursula von der Leyen maintains that the legislation passed by Poland last month to change its court system is not enough for the commission to disburse the funds. Kaczynski further accused the commission of trying “to break Poland and force it into full submission to Germany,” and said that they will not fit into the “German-Russian plans to rule Europe.” (Jan Cienski, “Poland warns it will turn cannons on the EU in rule of law dispute,” POLITICO, 08 August 2022)

THE UK
Deadline extended for the UK to respond on the Northern Ireland protocol
On 08 August, European commission confirmed that the deadline for the UK to respond to the legal action by the EU has been extended by one month upon request. The EU relaunched legal action on the protocol after it found non-disclosure of data relating to exports from Northern Ireland to the UK and failure in implementation of agreed Brexit conditions on VAT, EU customs, and alcohol excise rules. European Commission clarified that it will not accept the unilateral changes to the protocol by the UK, since the EU believes overriding parts of the deal would break international law. (Jayne McCormack, “NI Protocol: UK given extra time to respond to EU,” BBC, 08 August 2022)

REGIONAL
EU submits “final text” of the 2015 nuclear deal to the US and Iran
On 08 August, the European Union submitted a “final text” to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal. EU’s foreign policy chief Joseph Borrel said that an agreement is likely to take place soon. The EU mediated talks between Iran and the US, attended by China, Russia, France, Germany and the UK, focused on technical adjustments to the text suggested by Borrel on 21 July. He said: “... behind every technical issue and every paragraph lies a political decision that needs to be taken in the capitals. If these answers are positive, then we can sign this deal.” The deal now has to be signed by Iran and the US. While the former’s initial reaction was cautious, US described the tabled draft as the “best and only basis on which to reach a deal”. (Patrick Wintour, “EU team submit ‘final text’ at talks to salvage 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” The Guardian, 08 August 2022)

Wolf population across Europe rises exponentially
On 08 August, a Swiss-based wolf-protection association Gruppe Wolf Schweiz (GWS) reported that the population of wolves in the Alps has grown by 25 per cent in a year. As compared to the 250 packs observed in 2021, more than 50 additional packs have been reported in 2022. Describing the growth as exponential, the group estimated that in the next five years the number of packs can rise from 300 to 800. GWS said: "Increased wolf population control, both preventive and reactive, will not change this reality at all… Due to the species' mobility, there would be no wolf-free areas." (Darko Janjevic, “Wolf packs spreading rapidly across the Alps, activists say,” Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2022)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Intense heatwaves exacerbates drought conditions and melts glaciers in Alps across Europe
On 08 August, a report by the BBC elucidated how Europe is reeling under the effects of extremely high heat. The report said that due to the rising temperatures water levels in rivers are falling thus catalysing drought conditions. This is leading many countries to introduce rationing measures for water usage. In Netherlands, stretched of the Waal River bed has emerged. In Spain, water-rich agriculture of avocados and olives is facing a crisis, as is also the case in Slovenia, where the drought is taking a toll on agriculture. In Italy, due to the drying up of the Po River in parts, a World War Two bomb emerged, which was then detonated in a controlled environment. Moreover, the glaciers on the Alps are also melting faster than expected. BBC reports that if greenhouse gas emissions rise further, the glaciers on the Alps are expected to lose 80 per cent of their current mass by 2100. (Laurence Peter, “In pictures: Drought hits Europe's rivers and crops,” BBC, 08 August 2022; “Climate change: Alps glaciers melting faster as heatwaves hit,” BBC, 08 August 2022)


08 August 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #274

War in Ukraine: Day 164 & 165

Azione’s withdrawal causes fallout in Italy’s left alliance; The EU’s trade transportation under crises due to low water levels in the Rhine; Beluga whale’s deteriorating health causes concerns to French rescuers

Photo : REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko


War in Ukraine: Day 164 & 165
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
 
War on the Ground
On 07 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will not cooperate for negotiation or bilateral talks if Russia decides to carry out referendums in the occupied areas in Ukraine. He reiterated: "Our country's position remains what it always has been. We will give up nothing of what is ours." Zelenskyy mentioned that the shelling at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and spoke to European Council Charles Michel about the same and also urged the international community for a “principled response” to the same. Both Ukraine and Russia are exchanging blame over the shelling at the plant. According to Energoatom (Nuclear power company), Russia’s shelling has seriously damaged a station containing nitrogen and oxygen, and an auxiliary building, and also forced the shutdown of one of the reactors.

On the same day, Russia’s forces launched attacks in the South Buh, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, and Sloviansk directions. However, Ukraine’s forces were able to neautralise the threats in these regions. According to the General Staff of Ukraine, Russia is concentrating their efforts in eastern Ukraine, and consolidating their control over Kherson, parts of Kharkiv, Zaphorizhzhya and Mykolaiv regions.

On 07 August, Ukraine’s general staff reported on Russia’s continued supply of forces, technology and equipment to Belarus’s air defence. Russia was observed to have used radio-electronic warfare to cause trouble to the aerial inspection in southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The general staff added: “Ukrainian aviation and missile and artillery units continue to fire at concentrations of manpower, military equipment of Russian occupiers, and warehouses with ammunition.”

On 06 August, Zelenskyy created an ad hoc working group to be chaired by the head of the president’s office, Andriy Yermak, consisting of representatives from the cabinet ministries, Ukrainian and foreign specialists on international law. The commission will develop and implement the compensation mechanism by considering applications seeking for damages caused by the war.

Also on 06 August, Ukriane’s digital transformation ministry reported that over 344,000 Ukrainians were using the eVorog chatbot. The application was designed to help Ukraine’s army destroy Russia’s military equipment and resources. According to the ministry, in July more than 2000 tips were received on the chatbot about potential enemy collaborators, which were then verified and sent to the Security Service of Ukraine. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 August, Russia’s Energodar’s military-civilian administration said that the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant was shelled by Ukraine’s troops. Ukraine’s units allegedly used a 220 millimeter rocker of the Uragan multiple rocket launching system. In the press release, the administration mentioned that they the strike damaged a part of a storage facility and a computer-assistance monitoring station. 

On 05 August, Russia’s delegation to the UN Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference, Andrey Belousov said that the allegations against Russia about their possibility of using nuclear weapons is “untenable and baseless.” He referred to Russia’s doctrinal guidelines and said that hypothetically nuclear weapons can only be used under emergency situations like as a response to weapons of mass destruction or where the existence of the state is threatened. Belousov clarified that none of the hypothetical situations mentioned in their guidelines apply to the situation in Ukraine. He mentioned that warnings given so far about nuclear war voiced by Russia were directed against NATO members to deter further aggression by Western countries.

On 07 August, the Russian embassy in the US urged the media to stop spreading “Russophobic fabrications,” following the West’s accusation of Moscow attacking the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. On 05 August the embassy also condemned Kiev for launching artillery strikes near the power plant and the city of Energoday. 

On 07 August, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin met the head of Chechnya republic, Ramzan Kadyrov following the discussions with Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip. Kadyrov stated that Russia appreciated the contribution of Chechen special forces during the operation in Ukraine. Putin acknowledged the growth of the republic and inquired on the investment opportunities for the development of a tourist destination. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 07 August, Turkey's defence ministry and Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Aleksandr Kubrakov, reported that four ships left ports in Ukraine for inspection by the Joint Communication Centre at Istanbul. Three of them left from the Chornomorsk port and one from Odesa. Two ships are carrying corn to Turkey, one ship with sunflower oil is heading for Italy and the other the other one is transporting sunflower seeds to China.

On 07 August, the UK defense intelligence reported that Russia might have dismissed six commanders since the start of the war for their poor performance.  general-colonel Aleksandr Zhuravlev who commanded the western region for five years was absent on Russia’s Navy Day in St Petersburg held on 31 July. He is likely to have been replaced by general-lieutenant Vladimir Kochetkov. The intelligence claims that the change is leadership is likely to impact Russia’s military performance against Ukraine.

On 06 August, Ukraine’s presidential advisor, Mykhaylo Podolyak thanked North Macedonia for the military aid and said: “No matter what the size of your country or the volume of GDP, it matters where your heart is.” North Macedonia will send supply soviet-era tanks and planes to Ukraine. North Macedonia’s defence ministry clarified that this decision does not violate the combat readiness of the country. It also mentioned that the tanks had originally been purchased from Ukraine in 2001, to fight against the ethnic insurgency launched by Albanians seeking greater autonomy in North Macedonia.

On 07 August, the US secretary of state visited South Africa by starting his three-nation tour of Africa. The move comes following Russia’s attempts to gain support from African countries. South Africa is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and refusing to join the west to condemn Moscow for its aggressiveness.

On 06 August, the US defence ministry released a video of humanitarian aid cargo meant for Ukraine being loaded on an aircraft at Dover Air Force base in Delaware. The operation was conducted during a foreign military sales. In the the video, the ministry reaffirmed its “steadfast commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity in support of a secure & prosperous Ukraine.” 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 07 August, Amnesty International said that it "deeply regrets the distress and anger” that their recent report has created. The report was released on 04 August and accused Ukraine's military of endangering civilians by setting up bases in schools and hospitals, and heavily populated residential areas. It also alleged that Ukrainian forces were violating international law by exposing civilians to Russia’s offensive. However, even though the organization stands by the findings in the report, it clarified that nothing justified Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

On the same day, the first ship carrying Ukraine’s grains under the deal between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, was supposed to reach Lebanon. Data from Marine Traffic showed the Seirra Leone flagged ship off the Turkish coast. Though a new arrival date has not been announced, the vessel’s bill of lading expects the arrival date at Tripoli to be on 09 August. However, Lebanon’s transport, agriculture and economy ministers have said that they do not have any information on who will purchase the grains being carried by Razoni.

References
Strikes badly damaged parts of Ukrianian nuclear plant,” Kyiv Post, 07 August 2022
A principled response from the international community to the Russian strikes at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is needed right now - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 07 August 2022
President holds meeting on compensating Ukraine for damage caused by Russia's aggression,” president.gov.ua, 07 August 2022
Ukraine’s Armed Forces repulse enemy troops in four directions, neutralize recon group in Bakhmut direction,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2022
No prospect of using nukes in Ukraine – Moscow,” RT, 05 August 2022
Ukrainian troops make another strike on Zaporozhye NPP - city administration,” TASS, 07 August 2022
Enemy-spotting chatbot in Ukraine boasts over 344,000 reports,” Ukrinform, 06 August 2022
Russian puppet official in Ukraine’s Kherson assassinated,” Kyiv Post, 07 August 2022
Four more cargo ships leave Ukrainian ports,” RT, 07 August 2022
The Russian Embassy responded to accusations of attacks on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant,” lenta.ru, 08 August 2022
Russian journalist detained in Kosovo released,” Interfax, 07 August 2022
Putin met with Kadyrov after talks with Erdogan,” lenta.ru, 07 August 2022
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine,” Twitter, 07 August 2022
Blinken lands in South Africa at start of Africa tour,” Deutsche Welle, 07 August 2022
Ukraine says it will receive tanks, planes from North Macedonia,” Reuters, 06 August 2022
US sends humanitarian aid cargo to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 06 August 2022
Amnesty regrets ‘distress’ caused by claims in Ukraine report,” The Guardian, 07 August 2022
First Ukraine ship under grain deal will not dock in Lebanon on time,” Reuters, 07 August 2022
Pope hails departure of Ukrainian grain ships as 'sign of hope',” Reuters, 07 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav 

FRANCE
Rescuers doubtful of the Beluga whale’s safe return due to its failing health
On 07 August, French rescuers and scientists were pessimistic about the return of the beluga whale to its arctic habitat from the river Seine. The whale was first sighted in the river Seine on 02 August 2022, 70 kilometers from north of Paris. The whale has visible signs of malnutrition and does not accept the food offered by the rescuers. The response to the rescuers trying to help the whale to swim to its territory has been poor from the mammal. Small spots have been sighted on the whale's skin, which made the officials conclude that it is either reacting to the freshwater of the Seine or is having its health decline slowly. The whale has been reported to behave jitterily by scientific observers after it is seen rising to the surface briefly and emitting fewer whale songs than expected. (Leo Sands and George Wright “France whale: Hopes fading for lost mammal stuck in River Seine,” BBC, 07 August 2022)

ITALY
Democratic Party-led left coalition collapsed as a centrist party withdraws
On 07 August, the Italian centrist party Azione decided to withdraw from the centre-left alliance headed by the Democratic Party. According to Carlo Calenda, the leader of the Azione party, the Democratic Party signed a separate electoral agreement with the radical left-wing party Sinistra Italiana and the green group Europa Verde was unacceptable to him. Both Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde were the ones that did not support Mario Draghi, former prime minister. Calenda said that he doubts the left coalition will stand together for a longer duration with opposing ideals. The rift in the left had caused the right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni's brothers of Italy to come on top in the recent polling's. (Angella Giuffrida, “Election boost for Italy’s far right as centre-left alliance collapses,” the Guardian, 07 August 2022)

REGIONAL
EU to look into the Airlines' complaints over compensation rules   
On 05 August, the Czech presidency of the EU is planning to resuscitate the discussion on the EU's air travel compensation rules. The airlines are complaining about the unfair compensation to the consumers for more than three-hour delays in flights. According to the 2013 proposal, any five-hour delay with reasons for extraordinary circumstances will have the airline not pay out the compensation, though the meaning of extraordinary circumstances remains ambiguous. Airlines complained that the claims agencies take up a lot of their money by moving the consumer cases to court. Claims agencies were created mainly because the airlines didn't do their job of handling compensation suitably. The airline companies are also looking toward Sweden, which is next in line for the EU presidency, to sort the problem as consumer rights are important to the Nordic countries. (Mari Eccles, “Under-pressure airlines push for end to big payouts for delayed passengers,” POLITICO, 05 August 2022)

Fall in the Rhine water levels causes problems for EU shipping
On 07 August, it is estimated that the water levels on the Rhine are extremely low to transport materials across the river due to less rainfall this year. Europe's major inland river that connects major countries such as Germany, France and Switzerland is having the problem of lower levels of water which poses a problem to the EU's plans to increase goods transportation through waterways and decrease the usage of costly and inefficient land movement. The low water level also threatens the transportation of coal to the power plants thus reducing its energy outputs in Germany. The decline in water level also decreased industrial activities because of transportation problems. Experts say that climate change had caused the plunge in the water levels of the Rhine this summer as well as the high-level last year. (Joshua Posaner and Hanne Cokelaere, "Deep trouble for EU shipping push as Rhine River runs dry,” POLITICO, 07 August 2022)

Polish pilgrims die in Croatia while travelling to Bosnia
On 06 August, 12 Polish pilgrims died in an accident in Croatia. The bus carrying the pilgrims, organized by the Brotherhood of St. Joseph Catholic group, had veered off the road while travelling to Medjugorje, a Catholic shrine in Bosnia, which ended up in a ditch. 32 survived the accident of which 19 are in critical condition. Warsaw prosecutors were ordered to launch an investigation by Poland's justice minister and prosecutor general. Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenkovic expressed his condolences to the family of the victims of the tragedy. (“Adam Easton and Elsa Maishman, “Croatia bus crash: Twelve Polish pilgrims killed and 32 injuredBBC, 07 August 2022)

 


06 August 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #273

War in Ukraine: Day 163

France sees one of the worst droughts; Hacking allegation forces two top Greek officials to resign; China calls European diplomats to clarify statement on Taiwan; Giorgia Meloni honoured to become the first female leader of Italy

Photo : REUTERS/Serhii Smolientsev


War in Ukraine: Day 163
By Rishma Banerjee and  Emmanuel Royan
 
War On The Ground
On 05 August, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera for the first time in the history of their bilateral ties. They spoke of increasing the interaction between the countries and guaranteeing food security in the region.
 
On 05 August, the head of the Ukrainian president's office, Andriy Yermak spoke on the phone with Jacob Sullivan, the national security adviser to the US president on Ukraine's pressing problems and requirements to bolster its stability and defence capacity to fend off a full-scale Russian invasion. 
 
On 05 August, in his address Zelenskyy spoke on contributions from 110 different countries who have raised more than UAH six billion for charity. Professional military drones were dispatched to the front lines as a result of the platform's functioning; this was one of the initial acquisitions made as part of the "Army of Drones" initiative. Twenty Fly Eye 3.0 drones, two Warmate complexes with forty kamikaze drones, and a total of 78 Matrice multi-copter drones were purchased from the funds. 
 
On 05 August, three more ships transported tons of corn from Ukrainian ports. Following the first grain cargo to cross the Black Sea since the beginning of the war are ships headed for Ireland, the UK, and Turkey. Earlier, a ship bound for Lebanon passed through, marking the start of the ground-breaking agreement between Russia and Ukraine and Turkey.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 05 August, Russia's foreign ministry declared 14 Bulgarian diplomats as persona non grata. The move comes following when Bulgaria expelled 70 Russian diplomats on suspicions of spying and imposed a limit on the number of Moscow's representatives as the once-close alliance between the two countries deteriorated over Ukraine.
 
On the same day, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov during his visit to Cambodia stated that  Russia is ready to discuss the exchange of prisoners with the US, but only through the channel, negotiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden. He said that Russia was prepared to discuss the exchange of detainees with the US. 
 
On 05 August, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his visit to the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, spoke with Russian president Vladimir Putin on gas delivery. Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said: "...the Presidents agreed during negotiations that we will start partial gas supplies and payment in rubles." Turkey received around 26 billion cubic meters of natural gas yearly from Russia. Furthermore, they also discussed the construction of Akkuyu and Turkish stream nuclear power plants. 
 
Also on 05 August, Russia’s investigative committee reported that Kiev bombed the Yelenovka detention center of Ukrainian prisoners of war by NATO’s long range weapons which includes HIMARS. The report states: “The accuracy and the density of rocket hits, and also other circumstances confirm that these were deliberate and planned actions by the Ukrainian side that used NATO long-range artillery guns, in particular, the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 August, the US ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield spoke about the impact of the Ukraine war on the global food crisis. She warned that Russia’s invasion will affect around 40 million people in the Sub-Saharan Africa. She also said: "Regardless of how you feel about Russia, we all have a powerful common interest in mitigating the impact of the war in Ukraine on food security.” 

On the same day, three more ships left from ports in Ukraine to carry corns to Ireland, the UK and Turkey. One Turkey-flagged ship carries 12,000 tons of corn from the Chornomorsk port for Karasu, Turkey and a Malta-flagged ship carries more than 13,000 tons of corns left for the UK. Another Panama-flagged ship left from Odesa port for Ireland with 33,000 tons. These vessels are being accompanied by Ukrainian pilot ships to navigate the mine-infested waters and the shipment will be monitored by the Joint Coordination Centre set up by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN.

As per Eurostat's report, Poland accepted the most number of refugees fleeing the Ukraine war in June, followed by Romania, Ireland and Bulgaria. It granted ‘temporary protection’ status to 60,125 people. The report stats that there were 1.2 million Ukrainians residing in Poland under the scheme currently. While the majority of the people seeking asylum were from Ukraine, 405 Russians also received such status in Poland. 2400 Nigerians and 410 Moroccans have have also applied for temporary protection in Portugal. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 05 August, the National Nuclear Energy Generating Company Energoatom's office reported that Russian forces shelled the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.  As per the report, three rounds were fired towards the plant's location, close to one of the power units where the nuclear reactor is situated. There are concerns over hydrogen and radioactive substance leakage.  

On 05 August, in response to the press release issued by Amnesty International on 04 August accusing Zelenskyy of endangering civilians by basing military troops in residential areas, the organization’s Ukraine Head Oksana Pokalchuk tendered her resignation. She mentioned that Amnesty International had not taken into account the information sent by the Ukraine office about Russia’s offensive. Pokalchuk also said that her resignation was catalysed by the realization that Amnesty is unlikely to withdraw their position on the issue.

On the same day, at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres referred to the war in Ukraine which was exacerbating the nuclear threat in the world. In a solemn gathering, Guterres urged the members to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to work on eliminating stockpiles of nuclear weapons. He also called for disarmament for the member states as the only plausible option to preserve peace.

Also on 05 August, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported that food prices in July has fallen for the fourth consecutive month, following a record high in since Ukraine war. The FAO chief economist Maximo Torero however said that while this was a welcome change, high fertilizer prices and currency movements still pose threats to food security.

References
Zelensky held phone conversation with Malawian president,” Ukrinform, 05 August 2022
Advisor to Ukraine Army chief Rice says has no concerns Ukraine would violate any arms agreement,” Ukrinform, 05 August 2022
UNITED24 platform initiated by President raises over UAH 6 bln in three months,” president.gov.ua, 05 August 2022
Russian forces shell Zaporizhia NPP for second time in past few hours - Energoatom,” Ukrinform, 05 August 2022
3 more ships with grain depart Ukraine ports under UN deal,” AP, 05 August 2022
Russia kicks out 14 Bulgarian diplomats,” Reuters, 05 August 2022
Erdogan agreed to partially pay for Russian gas in rubleseurointegration, 05 August 2022
Exchange of prisoners, contacts with US: statements Lavrov made in Cambodia,” TASS, 05 Augyst 2022
Russia bans Western investors from selling banking, key energy stakes,” Reuters, 05 August 2022“Kiev bombarded Yelenovka POW detention center by NATO weapons,” TASS, 05 August 2022“Ukraine war making 40 million people go hungry, Africa to bear brunt, says U.S.,” Reuters, 05 August 2022
Zeynep Bilginsoy and Aya Batrawy, “3 more ships with grain depart Ukraine ports under UN deal,” AP, 05 August 2022
Latvian embassy in Moscow suspends issuance of visas to Russians,” Interfax, 05 August 2022
Ukrainians granted temporary protection in June,” Eurostat, 05 August 2022
Amnesty International scandal: Ukraine office head resigns,” Ukrinform, 05 August 2022
From Hiroshima, UN chief calls for global nuclear disarmament,” un.org, 05 August 2022
Major fall in global food prices for July, but future supply worries remain,” un.org, 05 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav 

GREECE
General secretary and National Intelligence Service chief resign over involvement with Predator spyware
On  05 August, Greek officials resigned from prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' administration over allegations of being involved in hacking the opposition leader's phone. The general secretary, Grigoris Dimitriadis, and Greece's National Intelligence Service chief, Panagiotis Kontoleon, were accused of their involvement in the attempted taping of the mobile phone of opposition party Pasok's leader MEP Nikos Androulakis with spyware named Predator. Androulakis' phone was not only tapped twice with the Predator spyware but also was legally hacked by the Greek intelligence agents upon request from an allied nation. The prime minister said that he was uninformed of the legal wiretapping and would have stopped it if he had heard of it. Androulakis found that his phone was attempted to be hacked by Predator during an inspection by the European Parliament cybersecurity service and immediately filed a complaint to top Greek prosecutors after learning about the bugging. Few reporters were also hacked with the same spyware. (Nektaria Stamouli, "PM Mitsotakis feels the heat as two top Greek officials quit in spy scandal," POLITICO, 05 August 2022)

FRANCE
Water shortages have been seen all over France 
On 05 August, 100 municipalities in France faced a water shortage due to the heatwave in the country. The office of the prime minister said that it was the worst drought that France has ever seen. Water usage is being regulated in 93 regions. France's government set up a crisis team to combat the drought. The drought conditions are expected to prolong for at least two weeks. The dry conditions have affected the crop yield adding more to the already existing food crisis caused by the Ukraine war. The nuclear energy output at some plants was reduced by the state energy company due to the unavailability of cooling water as the river temperatures are high. July marked the lowest level of rainfall since March 1961. ("France drought: Parched towns left short of drinking water," BBC, 05 August 2022)

ITALY
Meloni is set to be the first female prime minister
On 05 August, the far-right leader of the Brothers of Italy party, Giorgia Meloni, said that she would be honoured to become the first woman prime minister of the country. The conservative alliance headed by Brother of Italy includes the rightist League and moderate Forza Italia is currently polling at 45 per cent ahead of next month's election. Meloni's party is expected to be leading with more than 23 per cent and according to the customary rule of the allies, the party with the most votes in the coalition will choose the prime minister if they achieve victory in the 25 September election. If Meloni is elected to become the next prime minister, is likely to face challenges like inflation, and the energy crisis affecting the country. She said that she will look for alternatives to curb Italy's dependency on Russian gas. ("Meloni says would be honour to be Italy's first female PM," Reuters, 05 August 2022)

THE UK
Parliament closes its TikTok account over suspicion of sharing data with China 
On 05 August, the UK government ceased operations of its TikTok account after concerns over user data falling into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.  The parliament had created a TikTok page to educate the younger audiences in British politics. But the concern over TikTok's parent company, Bytedance, a Chinese tech company, might share the user data with the Chinese government upon request according to the National Intelligence law that has made the UK parliament shut down its account. According to leaked recordings of TikTok's 80 internal meetings, the user data can be accessed by employees of Bytedance in China and it already has been obtaining information about the users in the US for several months. The possibility of the app being used as spyware made the UK parliament shut down the account. The company denies the accusations saying that it stores data in the US and Singapore and not in China and also wants to debunk any misconceptions about the app. It further said that it will now keep all user information in the US. (Rebekah Daunt and Sophia Khatsenkova, "UK Parliament shuts down its TikTok account after MPs flag data security risks," euronews, 05 August 2022)

REGIONAL
NATO and the EU assist Greece to settle the wildfire
On 05 August, NATO Support and Procurement Agency supplied 40 firefighting aircraft to Greece amidst raging wildfires. The deployed aircraft include 29 firefighting helicopters and 11 firefighting aeroplanes. The aircraft were deployed to 20 different locations and this was the 11th time that NSPA supplied Greece. The EU's Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) also lends its aid to Greece by pre-positioning  204 firefighters who were borrowed from the member states. The ERCC's 12 reserve firefighting aircraft, which are loaned from member nations, are also deployed to various European countries such as Albania, Portugal, Spain, France, the Czech Republic and Slovenia which are also battling wildfires. The wildfires are caused due to the intense heatwave rolling throughout Europe. ("NATO deploys record 40 firefighting aircraft to Greece," euronews, 05 August 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
China’s military exercise upsets the West and regional nations
On 05 August, China assembled European diplomats in the country to protest statements issued by G7 nations and the EU regarding its military exercises near Taiwan. China conducted a military exercise dispatching navy ships and warplanes and also launched missiles into the Taiwan Strait as a response to the US House of Representatives speaker, Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan. Five missiles fired by the Chinese military landed in the Exclusive Economic Zone off Hateruma island which belonged to Japan. Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida said that the Chinese military exercise directed at Taiwan will threaten regional peace and security. Pelosi's visit was seen as blatant political manipulation and China said that it responded accordingly. ("China summons European diplomats over statement on Taiwan," euronews, 05 August 2022)

 


05 August 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #272

War in Ukraine: Day 162

France creates ambassadors for LGBTQ rights; Intel to launch chip facility in Italy; Russians find loopholes in UK’s business system to evade sanctions

Photo : Ivan Alvarado/Reuters/Aljazeera


War in Ukraine: Day 162
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 04 August, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy convened a meeting of the Supreme Commander Headquarters. Security issues like the general mobilization for the war efforts, provision of necessary weapons, military equipment for Ukraine’s defence forces and the implementation of the combined territorial defence plan were discussed. 
 
On 04 August, the general staff of the armed forces said that Russian forces suffered the most losses in the Bakhmut and Donetsk regions. A command post of the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Troops of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was also destroyed. The general staff further stated that around 41,500 soldiers from Russia had been eliminated in Ukraine since the beginning of the offensive in February. So far Ukraine has also destroyed 1789 tanks, 4026 armored vehicles, 2960 motor vehicles, 182 cruise missiles and 260 MLRS among other Russian military equipment.
 
Ukraine’s ambassador to Lebanon, asked the ship docked at the Tripoli port in Lebanon to be stopped from leaving. The Syria flagged Laodicea which arrived at the port on 28 June was alleged by the Ukraine’s government for carrying contains grains stolen from Ukraine. Lebanon’s customs officials denied the claims stating the vessel’s papers were inspected and were in order. Even though Ukraine called on Lebanon to reverse its decision, the Laodicea, green signalled to sail outside Lebanon’s territorial waters. Ukraine’s foreign ministry expressed its disappointment for its position being neglected. Though its final destination is unclear, the ship has moved out towards the Syrian coast.
 
On the same day, the Center for Strategic Communications and General Command of the Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that five people were killed and 11 were wounded due to continued shelling by Russia’s forces. Intensive shelling was also reported in Maryinka and Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, including industrial facilities in Chuguyiv, Kharkiv, and Izyum districts. In the Luhansk and Kherson regions, three rockets and five missiles were fired in the Luhansk region, where the attack was supported by mortar, tank fire and explosions were reported. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

The head of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops (RCBZ) of the Russian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov accused the Pentagon of hiding the development of bio-weapons in Ukraine. He alleged that a company called “Labyrith Ukraine” and the US international development agency, USAID had taken part in the US military biological program. Kirillov said that USAID was thus being used by Pentagon as a front to avoid suspicion.

On the same day, Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov referred to Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. He said that this move was to artificially provoke tension and was a “completely unnecessary trip.” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also spoke about the issue and said that Pelosi’s visit risks “undermining regional stability and security.”

Khimki City Court in Russia, found US basketball star, Brittney Griner guilty of bringing in cannabis-infused vape cartridges to Russia, the substance being illegal, she was sentenced to nine years in prison and fined Griner RUB one million. The ruling, comes after a lengthy and publicized trial, might pave the way for a high-stakes prisoner exchange. On this issue, US national security spokesperson, John Kirby urged Russia to accept its proposal of exchanging convicted arms trafficker Viktor Bout for Griner and marine Paul Whelan who has been imprisoned for espionage charges.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 04 July, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia’s invasion in Ukraine was the most dangerous moment in Europe since World War Two. He also said that to serve the interest of Europe, Russia must not be allowed to win. He mentioned that while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was bad, it would have been worse had it between Russia and NATO.  He said, “If President (Vladimir) Putin even thinks of doing something similar to a NATO country as he has done to Georgia, Moldova or Ukraine, then all of NATO will be involved immediately.” He also mentioned that the invasion is not just an attack on Ukraine, but ‌an attack on the values and the world order that NATO believes in.
 
On 03 July, US Intelligence officers told The Associated Press, that Russia was trying to plant false evidence regarding the attack on the Olenivka Prison that left 53 dead. They warned that Russia might blame Ukraine and the weapons supplied by the US for the same. 

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 04 July, the WHO said that Ukraine is and will be facing a worsening health emergency if Russia’s invasion continues for long. WHO says that this will be due to a combination of burnt-out staff, increased shelling and the upcoming harsh conditions in the winter months. A WHO tracker also reported that out of the 615 attacks on healthcare facilities in 2022, 434 have been in Ukraine. Ukraine emergency coordinator Heather Papowitz for WHO said that she was most concerned about the active fighting like the eastern Donbas region or Kherson.

On the same day, Amnesty International accused Ukraine of voluntarily endangering civilians by concentrating their troops in residential areas. They said that establishing military bases in residential areas were not only putting civilians at risk but also violating the laws of war. Zelenskyy responded to the report saying that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine cannot be justified in any way. He also said that the report was similar to propaganda and disinformation tactics used commonly by Russia.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head, Rafael Grossi said that they were attempting to gain access to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russia’s control, but was being operated by Ukrainian technicians. He said: “We can't afford faulty communication with the plant in areas relevant to safety… Frankly, if I don't have access, I can't determine that. There are contradictions between the accounts of the Russian and Ukrainian sides.”

On 03 July, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said that they did not guarantee the safety of the fighters captured from the Azovstal steelworks by Russia. In a statement, the ICRC said that it did not have the jurisdiction to intervene once the prisoners of war were already in enemy hands. It clarified that the ICRC had only played the role of an intermediary to facilitate the safe passage of the captured fighters from out of the Azovstal plant. Referring to the Olenivka penal facility to investigate, ICRC is yet to get the access.

References
Aleksandra Klitina, “Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Donetsk Regions Shelled Overnight, 4 Killed,” Kyiv Post, 04 August, 2022
Weapons, military equipment, mobilization: Zelensky convenes Supreme Commander HQ,” Ukrinform, 04 August 2022
Austin, Reznikov discuss Ukraine’s security assistance needs,” Ukrinform, 04 August 2022
About 41,500 Russian soldiers eliminated in Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 04 August 2022
Kareem Chehayeb, “Ukraine urges Lebanon to block ship with grain from leaving,” AP News, 03 August 2022
Ukraine tells Lebanon to reverse decision to clear grain shipment for travel,” Reuters, 04 August 2022
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council,” kremlin.ru, 04 August 2022
The Ministry of Defense suspected the Pentagon of hiding the development of bioweapons in Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 04 August 2022
US ‘artificially’ stokes tensions – Kremlin,” RT, 04 August 2022
Russia sentences Griner to 9 years in prison, White House calls for her release,” Reuters, 05 August 2022
Jacob Gronholt-pedersen and Nerijus Adomaitis, “NATO chief: Ukraine war is Europe's most dangerous time since WW2,” Reuters, 04 August 2022
Aamer Madhani and Edith M. Lederer, “US says Russia aims to fabricate evidence in prison deaths,” AP News, 04 August 2022
Jennifer Rigby, “Ukraine health crisis worsens as medics work amid shelling, WHO says,” Reuters, 04 August 2022
Amnesty accuses Ukraine of basing troops in residential areas, angering Kyiv,” Reuters, 04 August 2022
U.N. watchdog appeals for access to Ukrainian nuclear plant, Tages-Anzeiger reports,” Reuters, 04 August 2022
Olenivka penal facility: Prisoners of war and ICRC's role,” International Committee of the Red Cross, 03 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Paris to establish ambassador’s for LGBTQ rights awareness
On 04 August, France’s prime minister Elizabeth Borne announced the creation of an ambassador’s post to promote LGBTQ rights worldwide. The ambassador, who will be appointed by the end of the year, will campaign for the decriminalization of homosexulaity and trans identity. She also announced EUR three million fund to finance ten new LGBTQ centers in France. The announcement comes after a minister of her party made stigmatizing comments on homosexuality and LGBTQ community. Borne further mentioned that there will be “no ambivalence” among the members of president Emmanuel Macron’s administration on their commitment to LGBTQ rights. (“France to appoint LGBTQ ambassador to promote rights abroad,” Deutsche Welle, 04 August 2022)
 
Beluga whale belonging to the Arctic spotted in River Seine
On 04 August, a beluga whale was spotted in France’s River Seine, which belongs to the cold waters of the Arctic. The mammal is presently located between the Poses dam and Saint-Pierre-la-Garenne. The authorities are contemplating on how to save the huge mammal without lifting it out of the water as it’s too risky. The rescue services and biodiversity activists have mobilized to closely monitor the movement of the whale to assess its “worrying” health The head of environmental group Sea Shepherd France, Lamya Essemlali stated: "The challenge now will be to help feed it, and try to accompany it towards the ocean." She further mentioned that the river Seine is very polluted and noisy, which is a very suitable environment for the mammal. (“‘Underweight’ beluga whale in France’s River Seine near Paris prompts rescue effort,” the Guardian, 05 August 2022)
 
ITALY
Rome to establish semiconductor facility with the US firm Intel
On 04 August, Italy will be negotiating a deal worth EUR five billion with the US semiconductor manufacturer Intel to build an advanced semiconductor package and assembly line. Intel’s larger plan is to invest around EUR 88 billion across Europe after the semiconductor shortage crisis of 2020. Where Europe was largely dependent on Asian markets particularly from Taiwan. A final decision on the location of the facility is yet to be made. (Giuseppe Fonte and Giulio Piovaccari, “Exclusive: Italy, Intel close to $5 billion deal for chip factory,” Reuters, 04 August 2022)
 
New aid package approved for rising energy costs
On 04 August, the caretaker government of Italy approved a recent aid package worth EUR 17 billion to assist businesses and families from rising energy and conspiracy prices. The caretaker prime minister Mario Draghi stated: "This package is aimed at protecting Italy's economic recovery in the face of a worsening international environment." Similarly Rome also extended present measures to cut energy bills for low-income families under the recent package. It will be extending the cut in excise duties at fuel pumps. (Giuseppe Fonte, Angelo Amante and Giselda Vagnoni, “Italy unveils new $17.4 billion package against inflation,” Reuters, 05 August 2022)
 
THE UK
Bank of England raises interests and predicts inflation to reach 13 per cent
On 04 August, the Bank of England raised interest rates for a sixth successive time to 1.75 per cent and predicted an inflation reaching above 13 per cent. Threadneedle Street had to increase its lending costs by 0.5 percentage points. The Bank’s governor stated: “If we don’t act now to prevent inflation becoming persistent, the consequences later will be worse, and will require larger increases in interest rates,” and added that reducing the inflation to two per cent remains its primary objective. The Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) predicts an increase in the energy prices cap to about EUR 3,500 in October which will lead to rise in inflation to 13.3 per cent. (Larry Elliott, Phillip Inman and Heather Stewart, “Bank of England hikes rates as it predicts 13% inflation and long recession,” the Guardian, 04 August 2022)
 
Russian oligarchs exploit UK’s business system to escape sanctions
On 04 August, an investigation by the BBC and Finance Uncovered have revealed evidence affiliating a number of English Limited Partnerships (ELPs) to fraud, terrorism and money laundering.  In an ELP an individual can invest capital into a company but does not play an active role in its management. ELPs were not included in the UK’s transparency laws of 2016 and 2017, which obligated companies to identify their real owners. Since then many ELPs were established to exploit the system's loophole in order to dodge anti-money laundering laws. The investigation has found that among those who expoited the loophole are Putin’s close allies, Arkady and Boris Rotenberg. It is revealed that they have used a network of shell companies worldwide to evade US sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. (James Oliver, Nassos Stylianou, Will Dahlgreen, Steve Swann, “Banned Russian oligarchs exploited UK secrecy loophole,” BBC, 04 August 2022)


04 August 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #271

Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liz Truss v. Rishi Sunak & War in Ukraine: Day 161

Volcano erupts near Iceland’s capital; The UKs concerns over drought; The EU urges Azerbaijan and Armenia to stop fighting

Photo : Dominic Lipinski/PA


EM COMMENT

Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liz Truss v. Rishi Sunak
By Padmashree Anandhan

When the contest for leading the conservative party began, there were eight party leaders from different backgrounds competing for the UK prime ministership. After three rounds of voting, former chancellor Rishi Sunak topped the list followed by foreign secretary Liz Truss. With Truss cutting close, the voting proportion has switched in favour of Truss with Conservative party member’s support, where the Opinium snap poll showed the lead of 47 per cent for Truss over 38 per cent for Sunak. The candidates will now involve in the campaign and debates, while the 175000 members vote which will be declared on 05 September. When it was to compete with Penny Mordaunt or Suella Braverman, Sunak had an easy majority in polls, but comparing Truss’s record and reputation within the party, the possibility of winning for Sunak hangs low.

Liz Truss
Truss, who was nowhere in the top three of the first round, has now beaten Sunak due to her growing support within the party. The reasons are, that Truss is one of the long-standing members, and her promise of immediate tax cuts has turned the winds in favour. She assures to create “low-tax and low-regulation zones,” to promote more innovation. Although the decision seems to be impracticable with energy prices rising and the economy at the edge of inflation, the tax cut will only aggravate the problem. For the Party members tax cut or the economic risk is not a concern because most of them are elite or financially secured, so the changes will only impact the middle and low-income groups people. In terms of climate, Truss vows to suspend the “green levy” which is part of the energy bill paid for social and green projects. She also supports boosting UK’s nuclear energy through new reactors, and power stations and disinvesting in solar farms by cutting subsidies. On Brexit, as a keen supporter of Boris Johnson has firmly vowed to take the new legislation proposal on altering the Northern Ireland Protocol. This assures the member support of those who were under Johnson. Till now she has got culture secretary Nadine Dorries, Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and former leadership rival Suella Braverman on her side.

Rishi Sunak
Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor who started the resignation row was one of the strong candidates topping the last three rounds of the Tory leadership contest. Unlike Truss, his tax cut is conditioned on bringing inflation in control. He also promises to remove five per cent VAT on household energy upon the standard price on bills goes above GBP 3000. Apart from this Sunak also vows for increasing corporate tax to 25 per cent from 19 per cent in April 2023 and to increase UK’s defence expenditure. Sunak faces a barrier amongst the party to gaining support when compared to Truss due to his poor reputation in handling the economy and climate policy. Unlike Truss, Sunak has proposed for “energy profits levy” which has to be paid by the energy firms as a windfall tax to benefit households, pensioners, and those with a disability to meet their cost of living. In terms of climate change, he vows to replace onshore wind farms with offshore wind programmes. In terms of Brexit, Sunak holds a rigid stance on restructuring the EU laws and opposes Northern Ireland Protocol, as he argues it causes to the instability for UK’s economy.

Who might lead the Conservative party?
The quest for a new leader before the end of term is not new for the Conservatives, it is the second time in the last six years, that the leader has been removed. Comparing both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both candidates lack in addressing the climate and Brexit issues, which is observed as a common practice of the Conservatives. To get through the final voting from the 1,75,000 candidates, being in favour of a party is important, keeping Sunak and Truss on the start line, Sunak’s work on the employment scheme during the pandemic earned his place, but his hard-line approach to taxes and cost of living are the factors reducing his chance to victory. Whereas Truss, who does not have a workable long-term economic plan has managed to showcase herself as a convenable leader to lead the party till the next elections.

What next for the UK?
Regardless of the next leader, UK’s economy is already on the trajectory of an economic downturn. The growth line began to underperform from 2010 when the Tories took over. The slow recovery rate from the pandemic and unexpected prolonging of the Ukraine war has cost UK’s economy further resulting in negative growth. In the 1970s the bank interest rates shot up and now the same is expected to happen with the borrowing costs. Truss has campaigned to look into “Threadneedle Street’s mandate,” which is used to meet the inflation target. Here the real problem is not only the war, and pandemics but also the impending unemployment rates which cannot be settled by cutting interest rates. Therefore, whether it is Truss or Sunak, the reviving of the economy into its track will be a long game for the UK. The selected leader will face a hard time proving until the 2024 elections.


War in Ukraine: Day 161
By Padmashree Anandhan 
 
War on the ground
On 03 August, Ukraine’s prosecutor general Andriy Kostin and US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink met to discuss the cooperation on efforts towards war crime investigation, anti-corruption, and justice reforms. According to Kostin: “Effective coordination on the part of the prosecutor's office is key both for intensifying the work of the law enforcement system and for projects of international partnership support.”

In the daily address, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Estonia’s foreign minister, Urmas Reinsalu for agreeing to support the reconstruction process to start back schools. Ukraine will be building back the destroyed schools, kinder gardens, and universities in the Zhytomyr region with help from the Estonian government.  Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal who also visited Ukraine confirmed on the inclusion of arms supply to Ukraine as part of its budget and appreciated the long-standing efforts of Ukraine in the war.

On 03 August, Ukraine’s intelligence directorate released a statement on the findings of the treatment of the prisoners of war. It reported that the POWs were tortured, went through physical humiliation, and were psychologically demoralized to make them confess the war crimes of Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 03 August, the Russian defence ministry accused Ukraine of torturing, starving, and cutting off medical supplies. Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin blamed the West for holding Ukraine accountable for it. He said that Russia has been taking measures to align with the Geneva Conventions when it came to the treatment of POWs, he also claimed that Russia had held 40 weekly meetings with the UN and ICRC.

Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reported on the draft agreement that was framed in the Istanbul meeting to settle the differences between Russia and Ukraine. He said: “Russia is ready [for a peace deal], the Ukrainian side is well-aware of our terms. One way or another, they will be fulfilled.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 03 August, the US Senate held a vote to approve Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO. In the voting, two-thirds of the majority voted in favor of the ratification of the accession process. According to US President Joe Biden: “This historic vote sends an important signal of the sustained, bipartisan US commitment to NATO, and to ensuring our Alliance is prepared to meet the challenges of today and tomorrow.” So far France, Germany, Canada, and Italy have already green-signalled the accession.

The first ship which left from Ukraine port of Odesa on 02 August was green-signaled by Turkey to continue its route to Lebanon. At the same Zelenskyy was skeptical about the continuation of the grain export due to potential intervention from Russia. The Razoni ship carries 26,527 tonnes of corn which first entered the Bosporus strait to get clearance from Turkish inspection.

On 03 August, an intelligence update from the UK ministry of defence, observed that Ukraine's recent attack on Russia’s train in Kherson will make it challenging for Russia to re-do its railway links and force it use the Crimean route to transport its supplies. It said: “It is likely we will see an increase in civilians attempting to flee Kherson and the surrounding area as hostilities continue and food shortages worsen. This will create pressure on transport nodes and routes, likely resulting in measures to control movement being implemented.”

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz said that the turbine (40 feet) which was sent for repairs to Canada was now ready to be shipped back to Russia, but Russia has conditioned that it will receive the shipping only after assurance that the turbine will not be applicable to western sanctions. Therefore, the repaired turbine remains stranded in the Siemens Energy factory.

On 03 August, Switzerland’s federal council adopted a new set of sanctions on Russia to align with the EU’s sanctions on gold products. It also reiterated its support for fighting against the global food crisis and assured us that measures against Russia would not affect the trade lines for agricultural and food products. The federal council also announced on measures relating to technical and linguistic adjustments to the existing regulations as part of the alignment package.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 03 August, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced the launch of a “fact-finding mission” to look into the attacks that took place in the Olenivka prison where more than 40 prisoners of war were killed.

On 02 August, USAID Deputy Administrator, Isobel Coleman held a meeting with the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Europe, Hans Kluge where both announced a joint support package of USD 1.8 million to Ukraine for monitoring any spread of infections or disease. Till now USAID has given USD 15.5 million as health support to Ukraine.

On 02 August, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced a new package of USD 40 million to address the war-induced grain shortages. The project is funded by Canada and will ease the stored grains through providing technical equipment. Director of the FAO Office of Emergencies and Resilience said: “FAO is responding immediately to this situation while taking a longer-term view and looking to invest in durable solutions that build on sectoral capacity, in coordination with the Government at national and local levels.”

References
Brink says U.S. will continue expert support in investigating Russian war crimes,” Ukrinform, 03 August 2022
Ukraine is grateful to Estonia for real support - President at a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia,” president.gov.ua, 03 August 2022
Reinsalu in Kyiv: Winter is coming, rebuilding Ukraine must start now,” ERR News, 03 August 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: UN to look into attack that killed Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk,” Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022
Ukrainian POWs tortured in Olenivka to be used for Russian propaganda – intelligence,” Ukrinform, 03 August 2022
Russia accuses Ukraine of mistreating POWs,” RT, 03 August 2022
Russia ready for Ukraine peace deal – Kremlin,” RT, 03 August 2022
US Senate backs Finland and Sweden NATO membership bids,” Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022
Phelan Chatterjee, “Nord Stream 1: The 12-metre turbine threatening Europe's gas supply,” BBC, 03 August 2022
Ukraine: Switzerland adopts new sanctions,” The Federal Council, The portal of the Swiss Government, 03 August 2022
Defence Intelligence update,” Ministry of Defence twitter, 03 August, 2022
Deputy Administrator Coleman’s Meeting With World Health Organization Europe Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge,” usaid.gov, 03 August 2022
Ukraine: FAO, Canada join forces to address grain storage deficit,” ukraine.un.org, 03 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
The national assembly approves a new package to fight inflation
On 03 August, the centrist alliance, Renaissance under France's president Emmanuel Macron managed to push forward a EUR 20 billion package to counter the cost of living crisis in the country. Although the conservative Republicans and the far-right National Rally supported the package in the national assembly during the final vote, the left coalition, NUPES, was against it. The package looks to combat inflation in the country that was increased by rising food and energy prices. Such measures enable a boost in pensions and particular welfare programs by four per cent and a cap on rent increases by 3.5 per cent.  The package also permits private companies to offer annual tax-free bonuses of up to EUR 6000 which was increased from EUR 1000. It also allows the installation of a floating Liquified Natural Gas terminal in the port city of Le Havre. ("French lawmakers endorse €20 billion anti-inflation package," Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022)

France was accused of discriminating against a Muslim woman for wearing a hijab
On 03 August, the United Nations Human Rights Committee ruled that France had discriminated against a Muslim woman who was prohibited to attend vocational training in a public school while wearing a hijab. Naima Mezhoud was prevented from entering the school by the head teacher for wearing a Muslim head scarf in 2010. UNHRC ruled that France had committed religious and gender-based discrimination by refusing Mezhoud participation in the vocational training due to wearing a hijab. France did not respond to the UNHRC decision and is unlikely to comply with it. France follows strict secularism. President Emmanuel Macron argues that Islamism has jeopardized secularism in France while the Muslim community complains that their rights are targeted and chipped away by the government. The ruling stated that France has to compensate Mezhoud financially for six months and to offer the vocational course if she wishes. It also warned France to make sure that this never happens again. (Juliette Jabkhiro, "France discriminated against hijab-wearing vocational trainee -U.N. document," Reuters, 03 August 2022)

Nuclear plants reduce outputs due to the rise in temperature in the rivers
On 03 August, France's largest nuclear energy supplier, Électricité de France (EDF), said that it would temporarily reduce the energy output in the nuclear power stations near Rhone and Garonne rivers. The 84 per cent state-owned energy company is forced to decrease its energy output due to heatwaves increasing the temperature of the rivers. The rise in river temperature results in limitations on the usage of river water to cool down power plants. According to EDF, there won't be a complete cut-off of energy production but rather a minimum level is maintained to keep the grid steady. Half of EDF's 56 nuclear plants are offline due to planned maintenance and repair corrosion. The Ukraine war has increased the energy prices resulting in an energy crunch in France in turn rising the market price for electricity. (Julia Kollewe, "EDF cuts output at nuclear power plants as French rivers get too warm," The Guardian, 03 August 2022)

ICELAND
Volcanic eruption near the Kelflavik international airport
On 03 August, Fagradalsfjall mountain, near the capital Reykjavik in Iceland, was seen to pour out smoke and lava from its side. The volcano near the capital's Keflavik international airport erupted following a series of earthquakes. The same mountain saw an eruption last year that lasted for six months. A code red alert was declared by the government but will be lowered to code orange if it seems to be an eruption like last year. There was no immediate risk or damage to any infrastructures and planes were prohibited from flying over the site. It was harmless when compared to the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption that disrupted 100000 flights and forced evacuations of residents due to smoke and ash in the atmosphere. (Nikolaj Skydsgaard and Terje Solsvik, "Volcano erupts near Iceland's capital in seismic hot spot," Reuters, 03 August 2022; "Iceland: Volcano erupts near key Keflavik airport," Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022)

THE UK
Acute water shortage in England
On 03 August, the UK was concerned about heading toward drought due to an acute shortage of water. The rainfall was down by 76 per cent in July according to the Met Office and the average flow of the rivers was said to be below normal levels. With heatwaves, added overconsumption of water has reduced the groundwater level in the country. Water companies are considering banning hosepipes in the UK. The drought has brought forth dry land which resulted in wildfires and the loss of crops and shortages. The government has advised its citizens to reduce the consumption and wastage of water and took measures for the impending drought. ("Is the UK heading for a drought and will there be more hosepipe bans?," BBC, 03 August 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The EU urges Baku and Yerevan to have peaceful negotiations
On 03 August, the EU demanded an immediate end to the fight between the armies of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Three people were reported to have died from the skirmish where one was from the Azerbaijan force and the other two were from the Karabakh army. The conflict has endangered the delicate truce between the two countries. Azerbaijan alleged that it was just retaliating against a terrorist attack by the illegal Armenian militant forces. The Armenian foreign ministry urged the international community to take action against the aggressive attitude of Azerbaijan. The EU implored both parties to go into negotiations rather than turn toward violence. Russia's defence ministry accused Azerbaijan of breaching the ceasefire that Moscow brokered in 2020. Russia declared that it was taking measures to stabilize the situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. ("Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan, Armenia trade blame over renewed clashes," Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022)


03 August 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #270

Tensions in Kosovo-Serbia border: Three issues | War in Ukraine: Day 160

Italy’s new centrist alliance; Spain’s energy saving measures; Mark Rutte becomes longest serving Dutch prime minister

Photo : AP Photo/Bojan Slavkovic


IN FOCUS

Kosovo's new rule provokes Serbians to protest once again
By Sai Pranav

On 01 August, Kosovo imposed a new rule where Serbia-issued license plates will no longer be valid to enter Kosovo, and for the vehicle from Serbia to enter, must have Kosovo issues license.
Along with the vehicle licensing, it also mandated that Serbians cannot enter using Belgrad passports but by availing a separate document from the Kosovar police during entry and exit. The rule invoked protests and clashes between Albanian and ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo due to the new rule and protestors blocked the roads using trucks and heavy vehicles. With protests escalating to a skirmish between the Serbs and the Kosovar police, the Kosovar authorities closed two border intersections in Jarinje and Bernjak. After the talks with the US and the EU, the implementation of the rule was postponed by a month, and the protestors withdrew.
 
Three issues
First, reluctance to recognize Kosovo. After the Yugoslavia war in 1998, the Albanian separatists wanted a separate state, but it was objected to by Serbians for two reasons. One, to protect the Serbians living in Northern Kosovo, and two, a threat to national interest due to separate governance in Kosovo. Other than Serbia, Russia, China, Greece, and Ukraine are also against Kosovo’s sovereignty. Russia and China being the long-time allies of Serbia, due to their economical and infrastructure interests stand against Kosovo’s decision. Whereas, the EU, Greece, and Ukraine which are geographically closer, fear of rising conflict and preventing such tensions in the region have not supported Kosovo.
 
Second, the ethnic composition in Kosovo. The Albanians separated from Serbia in 2008 to form their own state and self-govern. According to the 2011 census, Kosovo consists of a Muslim Albanian majority. The northern part was excluded from the survey but the next largest is the Orthodox Christian Serb ethnicity. The other ethnic groups include the Bosniaks, the Egyptians, the Askhalis, the Romas, the Turkish, and the Goranis. Most of the minorities are Islamic, but since they lack representation in Kosovo’s Assembly, they are in support of Serbia. The Albanian Muslims are the majority in Kosovo when compared to the Serbian Orthodox Christian minority wants to eliminate Serbian influence in the northern part, where the Serbian minority is present. But, the unwillingness amongst the ethnic Serbians to be under Kosovo's governance instead of Serbia is the key reason for the ethnic protests and clashes. The rule on vehicle registration and new documentation requirements are the new points of contention.
 
Third, regional and international response. Kosovo is backed by the US, NATO, and the EU, meanwhile, Serbia is supported by Russia and China. Russia has been on the side of ethnic Serbians in Kosovo and has voiced out the injustice and discrimination faced by Serbians in Kosovo. The US deviated from the Kosovo issue due to the Ukraine war mediated talks along with the EU to extend the implementation of the new rule to September. NATO which has a continued its presence in Kosovo since June 1999 has stationed close to 4000 NATO's KFOR (Kosovo Force) on the shared border between Kosovo and Serbia. It will enforce only upon security instability. It has been hated by Serbians since the 1999 bombings. The war in Ukraine has indirectly escalated the issue.

References
Petrit Selimi, "Former Kosovo foreign minister: How to stop Serbia spat from spiraling out of control," Atlantic Council, 01 August 2022
Shaun Walker, "Kosovo delays plan for volatile north as tensions rise near Serbian border," The Guardian, 31 July 2022
Valerie Hopkins, "Tensions Flare on Kosovo-Serbian Border Amid Protests and Gunfire," The New York times, 01 August 2022
Milica Stojanovic and Xhorxhina Bami, "Kosovo Move in Car Plates Row Aims to ‘Expel Serbs’ – Vucic," BalkanInsight, 30 June 2022
Annabelle Timsit, "Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia: Why NATO is ‘prepared to intervene’," Washington Post, 01 August 2022
"Kosovo," minorityrights, March 2018


War in Ukraine: Day 160
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
 
War on the ground
On 01 August, Verkhovna Rada's chairman Ruslan Stefanchuck said that the Ukrainian parliament is involved in enforcing six of the seven requirements that were put forward by the European Commission and European Council in regards to its EU membership candidacy. He also added that Ukraine's parliament should adjust its legislation to that of the EU. According to Stefanchuck in the process of EU candidacy, the interaction between lawmakers of the European Parliament and Verkhovna Rada was essential. European integration bills were found to be around 49 for Ukraine to reform its policies.
 
On 02 August, the dry cargo ship that carried corn and grain from Ukraine, “Razoni,” arrived on the Turkish shores. The ship was anchored at the entrance to the Bosphorus Strait in the Black Sea. It had left Odesa port on 01 August following the grain corridor but its arrival was postponed due to weather conditions.
 
On the same day, the Russian forces launched a missile attack on Ukraine in the Lviv region. A military unit in the Chervonohrad district of the Lviv region was struck down by the missile attack resulting in two explosions. According to the press service of the general staff of the Ukrainian army, eight X-101 type cruise missiles were launched by the Russian military from the Caspian Sea region. Seven out of the eight missiles were shot down by Ukraine's air force out of which six were destroyed by the anti-aircraft missile units and one by a fighter jet.
 
Also on 02 August, Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska signed a memorandum of understanding with UNICEF to implement educational reforms in the country which was ravaged by the war. They discussed providing children with safe, accessible and quality education for children and young people who are suffering due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. According to Zelenska, resuming the obstructed education of the children is necessary for the country. The partnership also would like to provide psychological help to those affected by trauma due to the war.
 
On the same day, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a telephone conversation with the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. Zelenskyy requested the military alliance to provide more heavy weapons to counteract the Russian invasion. He also requested faster delivery of non-lethal military aid that would be financed by Ukraine. Stoltenberg congratulated Ukraine's president on dispatching the first grain ship from Odesa port. Zelenskyy invited Stoltenberg to participate in the online Crimea platform summit on 23 August.
 
Also on 02 August, president Zelenskyy met with the chairman of OSCE and Poland's foreign affairs minister, Zbigniew Rau. He thanked the president and the government of Poland for their help and support during the war. He also showed gratitude for Poland's assistance with forcibly displaced Ukrainian citizens and how Kyiv is returning the favour to the Polish citizens regarding their special status. He also thanked them for their defence assistance.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 August, Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the statement issued by the representative of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence of the ministry of defence, Vadim Skibitsky, confirmed the direct involvement of the US in the Ukraine war. She said that Skibitsky acknowledged that Ukraine consulted the US before launching a strike and the US had veto power over military decision-making. He refused to comment on who commanded the selection of targets for the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. The confirmation of direct involvement of the US through the Ukrainian Armed Forces questions the credibility of the promise made by the US to avoid boots on the ground.
 
On 02 August, Russia's Supreme Court deemed the Azov regiment a terrorist group. They were to be tried under anti-terror laws and were to be sent to prison for 20 years. They were recognized as a fascist group by the Russian government for their far-right and ultra-nationalist roots. They are primarily from Mariupol. The Azov battalion said that Russia was looking for justifications for their war crime of bombing the prison with Ukrainian prisoners of war in Olenivka by painting them as an extremely radical group. They urged the US state department to designate Russia as a terrorist state.
 
On 03 August, Russia's foreign minister will meet with top diplomats and the leader of Myanmar after he arrives at Naypyidaw. He is set to travel to Phenom Penh in Cambodia to attend the Russia-ASEAN format foreign ministers meeting and is expected to hold several bilateral meetings.
 
On the same day, a representative of the Russian foreign ministry at the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference, Alexander Trofimov, said that Ukraine would violate its obligation to the agreement as a result of acquiring nuclear weapons. The aggressive nationalism and chauvinism in Ukraine will threaten international security, according to Trofimov. He also mentioned that the west was the reason for destabilizing its territorial integrity and not Russia or its commitments to the NPT.
 
Also on the same day, a representative of the Russian foreign ministry at the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference, Alexander Trofimov, said that Ukraine would violate its obligation to the agreement as a result of acquiring nuclear weapons. The aggressive nationalism and chauvinism in Ukraine will threaten international security, according to Trofimov. He also mentioned that the west attempting to separate Ukraine from Russia was the reason for destabilizing its territorial integrity and not Russia or its commitments to the NPT.
 
Also on 03 August, the former employees of the special unit "Kord" of Ukraine's ministry of internal affairs were detained in Kherson. They were found along with weapons and explosive devices were hidden in the location. The weapons and explosive devices were suspected to be utilized for future sabotage and terrorist activities by the Ukrainian special service.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 August, US secretary of state Antony Blinken after the nuclear non-proliferation talks condemned Russia’s actions and attacks around Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant as irresponsible and criticized Moscow for using it as a “nuclear shield” to assault Ukrainian soldiers.
 
On 02 August, the US sanctioned Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s rumored mistress and other Russian proxies. Alina Kabaeva, a former gymnast has been added to the list of those who have been sanctioned by the United States department of the treasury. Russian proxies/ agents Volodymyr Saldo and Kirill Stremousov in the Kherson Oblast and Kostyantyn Ivashchenko in Mariupol are among the other 12 individuals who have been sanctioned. 
 
On the same day, the UK government announced further sanctions on Didier Casimiro and Zeljko Runje, two former board members of the oil major Rosneft, were subject to further sanctions. The sanction list stated that as a result of "obtaining a benefit from or aiding the government of Russia through acting as a management of a government of Russia-affiliated firm," both are now subject to an asset freeze.
 
On 01 August, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres praised Turkey for its efforts in leading and mediating an agreement between Ukraine and Russia for the movement of grain exports. Guterres stated that the departure of the dry cargo ship Razoni, which was sailing under the flag of Sierra Leone, signified a "essential beginning point" for the deal. The first of many commercial ships that will offer assurance and comfort to the world's food markets, he added. 
 
On 02 August, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU has fully supplied Ukraine with the first tranche of fresh emergency macro-financial support for EUR One billion. She stated: The funds will help Ukraine address its immediate financial needs following the unprovoked and unjustified aggression by Russia. The EUR one billion will help strengthen Ukraine in a crucial phase." 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 02 August, prices of cooking oil, poultry, and eggs increased in Singapore as a result of COVID-19, the supply-chain crisis, and the conflict in Ukraine. Many of Singapore's hawkers were forced to raise their prices, which has harmed individuals with lesser incomes who depend on this type of food. One of the hawkers, Lie stated that: “In all my years of doing this, I don’t remember things becoming so expensive so quickly. But I have to keep going on. This was my father’s business and I want it to last for as long as possible,” expressing worry about the crisis caused by the Ukraine war. 
 
On the same day, amid tensions over the invasion of Ukraine and worries about China's expanding aspirations in the area, foreign ministers from Southeast Asia and other world powers are convening in the capital of Cambodia to discuss the violence that is still present in Myanmar. Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Australia's Lowy Institute stated that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its effects on world food and energy prices, and the increasing tension between China and the US are of great concern to the ten ASEAN countries.
 
On 02 August, the Asahi Shimbun reported that Japan's shipments of used cars to Russia have grown threefold since May, despite the economic sanctions that Japan and several Western countries have placed on Moscow as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. In June, the port of Vladivostok in Russia was crammed with new and used automobiles coming from South Korea and Japan, many of which were SUVs, minivans, and enormous luxury vehicles. 

References
"Parliament to introduce draft laws corresponding to EU requirements," Kyiv Post, 02 August 2022
"Ship with Ukrainian grain anchors at entrance to Bosphorus Strait," Ukrinform, 02 August 2022
"Russian missile strike on Lviv region: Two explosions occurred at military unit," Ukrinform, 02 August 2022
"Ukraine downs seven of eight Russian missiles launched from Caspian Sea Aug 2," Ukrinform, 02 August 2022
"Olena Zelenska signed a Memorandum with UNICEF in Ukraine to strengthen joint work in the fields of education and protection of children during war," president.gov.ua, 02 August 2022
"President of Ukraine had a phone conversation with NATO Secretary General," president.gov.ua, 02 August 2022
"President met with the current OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland," president.gov.ua, 02 August 2022
"US directly involved in Ukraine conflict – Moscow," Russian Times, 02 August 2022
"Russia's supreme court designates Ukraine's Azov Regiment a 'terrorist' group," Reuters, 02 August 2022
"Lavrov arrives in Myanmar for working visit," TASS, 03 August 2022
"Russia predicted the consequences of acquiring nuclear weapons by Ukraine," LENTA.RU, 03 August 2022
"Ex-employees of the special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine were detained in Kherson," LENTA.RU, 03 August 2022
Michelle Nichols and Simon Lewis,“U.S. accuses Russia of using Ukraine power plant as 'nuclear shield',” Reuters, 01 August 2022
Ukraine grain deal is a product of Ankara's diplomatic success: Erdogan,” trtworld, 02 August 2022
UN lauds Türkiye for its leadership role in Ukraine grain export deal,” trtworld, 02 August 2022
EU fully transfers EUR 1 bln of first tranche of new macro-financial aid to Ukraine – EC President,” Interfax, 01 August 2022
U.S. targets former Olympic gymnast, steel producer with fresh Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 02 August 2022
U.S. targets MMK, Putin associate -Treasury website,” Reuters, 02 August 2022
Britain reimposes sanctions on two former Rosneft board members,” Reuters 02 August 2022
Singapore hawkers feel the sting of rising prices, ‘no thanks to Russia’,” SCMP, 02 August 2022
Myanmar violence, Ukraine war loom over ASEAN meetings,” The Asahi Shimbun, 02 August 2022
Japan’s used car exports to Russia rise threefold despite sanctions,” The Asahi Shimbun, 02 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

ITALY
Italy’s Democratic Party allies with centrist Arizone to compete against the rising right
On 02 August, Italy’s Democratic Party forged an alliance with the centrist Arizone party to try to prevent a right-wing triumph in the upcoming elections scheduled in September. Recent polls have shown that the conservative alliance of far-right Brothers of Italy, the rightist League, and the relatively more moderate Forza Italia party are leading the race with 45 per cent. If they win, the brothers of Italy party is slated to be the largest single party, with Georgia Meloni as the potential prime ministerial candidate. The Democratic Party and Arizone are currently polling at 30 per cent. On this issue, Democratic Party leader Enrico Letta said that they are trying to strengthen their opposition by further inviting alliances for other groups in the fragmented political landscape in Italy. (Angelo Amante, “Italy's centre-left sees open electoral race after pact with centrists,” Reuters, 02 August 2022)

SPAIN
Spain announces new energy saving measure to deal with the potential energy crisis
On 02 August, Spain’s government announced new energy-saving measures, which will come into force next week. According to the decree, public buildings, shopping centers, cinemas, rail stations, and airports will be required to stick to a certain limit on air conditioning. To tackle the potential energy crisis and to reduce their dependence on Russia’s oil and gas, the measure mandates that heating should not be set above 19 degrees Celsius and air conditioning should not be set below 27 degrees Celsius. The measures were published in the official state gazette and will be valid till 2023. Moreover, Spain’s environment minister, Teresa Ribera, has also suggested public administrations and big companies encourage work-from-home provisions to save energy on transport and in buildings. (Sam Jones, “Spain puts limits on air conditioning and heating to save energy,” The Guardian, 02 August 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
Prime minister Mark Rutte becomes the longest serving office-holder
On 02 August, prime minister Mark Rutte became the longest serving prime minister of the country. He has been in office for almost 12 years. Rutte came to power in October 2010. Leading the largest party in Dutch politics, the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Rutte is currently in charge of his fourth coalition government. However, his tenure has been rife with scandals too. Thousands of families were plunged into debt after being wrongfully accused of child benefit fraud, which led to the resignation of his third coalition. In the EU, he is the second longest-serving elected leader after Hungary’s Victor Orban. On this milestone, Rutte said: “It’s the greatest job in the world, an unbelievable honour… For me, the decisive factor is: Do I have the ideas, the energy? Is my mouth watering on Friday morning when the Cabinet meeting starts to begin solving problems? As long as I have that, I would like to continue.” (“'Teflon Mark': Dutch PM Rutte reaches key milestone,” Euronews, 02 August 2022) 

CLIMATE
European Commission approves Germany’s new green heating project
On 02 August, the European Commission approved Germany’s EUR three billion scheme to support renewable energy and district heating programs based on waste-heat. The scheme will assist in setting up an annual heat-generating capacity of 681 megawatts and cover 40 per cent of the investment costs of relevant projects. The scheme will also offer government grants till 2028 to the new heating network that runs on at least 75 per cent renewable energy. Each district will have to establish heating grids in their cities, which is slated to reduce fossil-fuel dependency and emissions by a considerable margin. (“EU approves €3 billion German green heating scheme,” Euractiv, 02 August 2022)

Po River’s rising salinity affects crops and fisheries around the delta in Italy
On 02 August, Associated Press published a report on the worsening condition of agriculture and fisheries due to the increasing salinity of Italy’s Po River. While deltas are where exchange between fresh and saltwater occur, due to the reduced amount of water in the upper courses of the Po River, the flow is becoming unidirectional. In 1960, the inland penetration was reported at two kilometres while in 2022 it has increased to 38 kilometres. This imbalance is affecting the rice cultivation along the river basin and also killing the double valve clams common to this area. Referring to the ecosystem which includes the Po Delta Park and the neighbouring part of Veneto, a UNESCO recognized biodiversity reserve, the director of the Po River Basin Authority said: “It is evident that there is an entire system with an ecology that will have permanent problems.” (Luigi Navarra and Luca Bruno, “Italy’s salty Po Delta hurting agriculture, fisheries,”AP News, 02 August 2022)


02 August 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #269

War in Ukraine: Day 159 | Ukraine begins first ship export | NATO's air policing mission

Finland compelled to shut the border with Russia; Lithuania eases employment process for immigrants; Kosovo suspends border measure over riots

Photo : NATO


War in Ukraine: Day 159
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 01 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed new laws, one, to provide safety and protection to journalists, working in hostile areas. Two, to remove the bureaucratic barriers to easily provide assistance to internally displaced people. Three, on handling emergency situations and hostilities, and four, for thermal modernization of buildings and simplifying the process of restoration of the residential sector.

On the same day, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv were shelled amidst air raid sirens. Russia used tanks, barrels, and jet artillery in this region. Tube and rocket artillery was also fired in the Siversky direction, in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Sloviansk was also under the fire, but there was a decrease in Russia’s offensive in the Kramatorsk direction or in Zaporizhzhia, where their troops were seen regrouping. Russia’s offensive is observed to increase in southern Ukraine, and is seen to be bringing more territory under control and consolidating the Southern Buh region and the Kryvyi Rih direction. The Army’s General Staff said that Belarus has deployed additional e-warfare systems in the parts of the border shared with Ukraine, like in the Volyn and Polissya direction.

On 01 August, the first ship carrying grains from Ukraine, under the joint safe passage agreement left the port of Odesa. Carrying 26,000 metric tonnes of maize, the Sierra Leone-flagged ship, Razoni, is destined for Tripoli in Lebanon. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres applauded the effort and expressed hope that this is the first of many such ships. Guterres also said that the World Food Programme intends to “purchase, load and ship an initial 30,000 metric tonnes of wheat from Ukraine in an UN-chartered vessel,” in the following days. Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that it was a “relief for the world,” and the Kremlin called it a "very positive development." Moreover, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov informed that 16 more vessels will be shipped soon carrying 600,000 tonnes from the Odesa port.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 August, Russia’s deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin spoke in an interview about the reconstruction efforts in Mariupol. He mentioned that the first buildings in the town will be ready by September, and hospitals and a center for the emergency ministry will also be set up. About the Azovstal steelworks, Khusnullin said that it will not be rebuilt as per its previous capacity, where it employed around 12,000 people. He also said that Russia is trying to create more jobs to make the city more self-reliant. A technology park with elements of the landscape will be established to re-initiate the economy in the region. 

Russia’s foreign ministry alleged that NATO members were supporting Ukraine to recruit foreign mercenaries to assist its war efforts. The head of the department of new challenges and threats at the ministry, Vladimir Tarabrin reported on the involvement of the NGO members in the operation, but Russia is seen to be of the recruitments and has been monitoring. The department alleges that 7000 foreign mercenaries have come to Ukraine so far, with the most being from Poland, followed by Canada, the US, Romania, and the UK. 

Russia’s courts announced that they will release hundreds of Ukraine’s citizens stuck in detention camps. The Moscow branch of Russia’s Federal Court Marshals Service said that they have not been allowed to cross the border due to the war. Moreover, the migrants without documentation face a similar fate as the closed consulates are unable to process their files. The court marshals service added, it will now consider
filing appeals to stop the forced expulsion orders against these migrants.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 01 August, NATO members Germany, Hungary, and Italy took over the policing of the airspace over the Baltic region, as a part of NATO’s air policing mission. Four JAS-39 fighter aircraft and around eighty personnel from Hungary will lead the mission out of Šiauliai air base in Lithuania. They will be joined by four German Eurofighter aircraft, flying out of Amari, Estonia, and Italian Eurofighters based in Malbork, Poland. The new force will replace the Belgian, French, and Spanish units that have been patrolling the Baltic airspace since April. Regarding the operation, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said: “At a time when European security has been fundamentally altered by Russia’s war against Ukraine, NATO fighter jets remain ready around the clock to protect Allied airspace. We are always vigilant.”

In their effort at a crackdown on Russia’s oligarchs and elites, the UK will now require foreign companies with property in the UK to record the details of their owners in a new register. Termed the “Register of Overseas Entities,” this is a part of the economic crime law enacted this year. The register is to stop the illegal flow of cash into London, as this will prevent criminals from hiding behind chains of shell companies.

The white house released a statement, renewing its commitment to a responsible nuclear arsenal, at the tenth review conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The month-long conference was slated to be held in 2022 but has been delayed due to the Covid 19 pandemic. President Joe Biden said that he is prepared to pursue a new nuclear arms deal with Russia and urged President Vladimir Putin to act in “good faith”. Putin reiterated, saying that there will not be any winners if nuclear warfare breaks out.

The US announced a fresh package of aid to Ukraine. The new package is the seventeenth drawdown from the US and will send up to USD 500 million in arms and equipment from the US department of defense (DoD) for Ukraine’s war efforts. The DoD has promised more HIMARS and 155-millimeter artillery systems that Ukraine’s forces are already using on the battlefield. With the new package, the total military aid from the US to Ukraine will come to about USD 8.7 billion.

On 01 August, Latvia suspended the border-crossing arrangement that allowed travel between Russia and Latvia. The agreement had been signed between the two countries in 2010. Latvia’s government has cited the closure of Latvia’s consulate in Pskov, Russia as the main reason behind freezing the agreement. The consulate in Pskov was the only Latvian mission that issued papers to Russians for traveling to Latvia, But Russia's ordered the closure to retaliate against Latvia’s support of Ukraine. 
On the same day, the European Commission disbursed USD 500 million of the USD one billion Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) operation for Ukraine. The remaining amount will be sent on 02 August. The MFA is part of the extraordinary effort by the EU to assist Ukraine in its war efforts and to address its urgent financial needs. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 01 August, the New Zealand government introduced a fresh set of sanctions on Russia. The new list includes branches and independent arms of the Russian armed forces especially logistical support units and the defense entities responsible for providing weapons and equipment. The insurance company SOGAZ, the Russian Railways, and defense entities that research, produce and test military hardware for Russia’s army have also been included under the new sanctions.
Australia’s Governor-General David Hurley met Poland’s President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw and both the leaders reiterated their support for Ukraine. Duda thanked Australia for their contribution to Ukraine’s war efforts, especially for the provision of Bushmaster infantry mobility vehicles. Hurley, on his first visit to Poland, thanked Poland for accepting the refugees from Ukraine.

On the same day, Iran’s foreign ministry reiterated its neutral position in the Ukraine war. The foreign minister, Kanani Chafi said that Iran will not take part in any initiative that risks aggravating the conflict for any side. He said that Iran will be choosing “peace and support” to resolve the crisis and will be making efforts in that direction.

The Vatican announced Pope Francis's scheduled to visit Kazakhstan in September. Reuters reported on the possible meeting between Francis and the Russian Orthodox patriarch Kirill to discuss Ukraine.
While patriarch Kiril had backed Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Pope urged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the crisis peacefully. In May, the pope had said that Kirill “cannot become Putin's altar boy,” which was criticized by the Russian orthodox church.

A new study conducted by the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) found that Twitter accounts which previously dealt with conspiracy theories and the anti-vaccination movement were increasingly focused on spreading disinformation about the global food crisis. According to the research, the Twitter accounts were mirroring Russia’s official position. It is to push the idea that the sanctions by the western countries on Russia are responsible for the food insecurity and cause to the interruption of grain exports from Ukraine.

References
Zelensky Signs New Laws to Protect Journalists and Civilians,” Kyiv Post, 01 August 2022
First Grain Shipment Since Russian Invasion Leaves Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 01 August 2022
First ship leaving Ukraine has 26,000 tonnes of corn -coordination centre,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
Ukraine’s Armed Forces neutralize Russian recon group near Mazanivka, prevent enemy advance towards Marinkai,, 01 August 2022
Belarus deploys additional e-warfare systems near Ukraine border,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2022
Russia Outlines Plans to Rebuild Ukraine's Devastated Mariupol – Official,” The Moscow Times, 01 August 2022
Ukraine’s military sustains 50 casualties in Donbass over past day — LPR,” TASS, 01 August 2022
Russia alleges NATO’s ‘quiet’ role in recruiting foreign fighters,” RT, 01 August 2022
Russia Releases Ukrainians Set for Deportation – Kommersant,” The Moscow Times, 01 August 2022
UK brings in ownership register for property held by foreign companies,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
President Biden Statement Ahead of the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” whitehouse.gov, 01 August 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Biden, Putin strike conciliatory tones as nuclear arms talks start at U.N.,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
Biden-Harris Administration Announces $550 Million in New U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine,” state.gov, 01 August 2022
EU state suspends travel deal with Russia,” RT, 01 August 2022
European Commission disburses first tranche of the new €1 billion Macro-Financial Assistance for Ukraine,” European Commission, 01 August 2022
Germany, Hungary, Italy take up NATO’s Baltic air policing,” NATO, 01 August 2022
Situation in Ukraine,” war.ukraine.ua, 01 August, 2022
Poland, Australia leaders confirm support for Ukraine in its fight against aggressor,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2022
Iran is not involved in initiatives contributing to military action in Ukraine — statement,” TASS, 01 August 2022
Philip Pullella, “Pope to visit Kazakhstan, may meet Russian Orthodox patriarch,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
Adam Gabbatt, “Anti-vax Twitter accounts pushing food crisis misinformation, study finds,” The Guardian, 01 August 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FINLAND
Helsinki prepares to shut the eastern border with Russia
On 01 August, the Finnish government was compelled by the public and political parties to completely shut its eastern border with Russia to avoid escaping the sanctions imposed.  Until July, there have been around 176,000 border crossings were recorded. Russians contribute the most to shopping tourism in the southeast regions of Finland. The opposition parties have called on the government to stop issuing tourist visas to the Russians. However, around 100,00 Russians already hold Schengen tourist visas given by Finland and other countries. The chairperson for the National Coalition Party stated that: "The main challenge is that closing the opportunity for Russians to come here might create anger towards us, whereas our aim is to create anger towards Putin's regime and the war." (David Mac Doughall, “How a sanctions loophole is letting Russians enter the EU,” euronews, 01 August 2022)
 
GERMANY
Berlin resumes coal-powered plants to generate energy for the winter
On 01 August, a coal power plant whose operations were paused concerning pollution and climate change received emergency permission to restart and run until April 2022. The economy minister, Robert Habeck called the move a necessary evil and accepted that it was a setback to address climate change. The decision was taken to prepare the country for the upcoming winter and attempts to replace Russian gas as it has completely halted its Nord Stream 1. Germany has also restricted the heating of public buildings and swimming pools. (“Germany puts coal power plant back on network after gas supply cut,” 01 August 2022)
 
KOSOVO
Pristina suspends its border measure after Serbs outrage
On 01 August, Kosovo decided to delay its new border measure on vehicle license plates and identity cards which provoked outrage among minority Serbs. Following the decision to postpone the measure, Serbs removed barricades that they had put up before. Serbia’s foreign minister Nkola Selakovic claimed that Kosovo made unacceptable unilateral moves to target the minority Serb population. He stated:  “It is not only about ID cards and registering vehicle plates. It is about the way of behavior.” The EU in response to the tensions invited both the countries for talks in Brussels." The EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano reiterated that all open issues between Serbia and Kosovo have to be addressed only through the EU’s dialogues. (“Kosovo delays border measures amid Serbia tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 01 August 2022)
  
THE UK
Penny Mordaunt backs Liz Truss
On 01 August, eliminated Tory leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt announced to support Liz Truss who is in the front run of the race with Rishi Sunak. Mordaunt stated that she backed Truss for her “graft, her authenticity, her determination, her ambition for this country and her sense of duty,” and called her ass the “hope candidate.” Mordaunt was eliminated in the fifth round of the leadership race. A poll by YouGov shows Truss at an 18-point lead over Sunak. (“Boost for Liz Truss as ex-rival Penny Mordaunt backs her Tory leadership bid,” POLITICO,  01 August 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Rigorous risks of climate change undermined and unassessed
On 01 August, an analysis published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science argued that the results of global heating beyond three degrees Celsius are undermined. The climate scientists warn that the risk of societal collapse has been “dangerously underexplored,” and called the situation the “climate endgame.” The analysis suggested a research agenda on famine, extreme weather, war, and disease. The scientists stated that a rigorous risk assessment on how threats spread, interact, and evolved had not yet been attempted. It also warned that climate breakdown might trigger other catastrophic threats, including wars or disease outbreaks, and worsen poverty, drought, and crop failures. (Damian Carrington, “Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’,” The Guardian, 01 August 2020)
 
ENERGY
Wind farm to be established in Estonian Island of Saaremaa by Swedish firm
On 01 August, the Switzerland-based firm Deep Wind Offshore is preparing to establish a wind farm in the Swedish exclusive economic zone northwest of the Estonian island of Saaremaa. The wind farm would have around 200 turbines and a total capacity of 6,000 megawatts. The deputy secretary general of the Ministry of the Environment, Kaupo Heinma inquired the Saaremaa rural municipality on whether Estonia should be included in the cross-border environmental impact assessment. In response, the head of the environmental department of the municipality stated that international cooperation in energy is necessary and relevant specialists should be involved in the discussions. (“Swedish company planning large offshore wind farm northwest of Saaremaa island,” The Baltic Times, 01 August 2022)


01 August 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #268

Moldova’s plan for cybersecurity response team | War in Ukraine: Day 157 & 158

Germany debates nuclear shutdown; Nigerian migrant beaten to death in Italy; Huge blaze near Lisbon in Portugal; Kosovo closes two border-crossings with Serbia

Photo : Council of Europe


IN FOCUS
Moldova: Plans to establish a cybersecurity response team
By Emmanuel Royan

On 29 July, Moldova is aiming to strengthen its cyber defence to shield its vital infrastructure from growing threats. Government officials are planning revisions to establish fundamental cybersecurity institutions and standards. A new national computer emergency response team (CERT), would be established by the end of the year to deal with cyberattacks on the government and other crucial services. The plans call for new legislation to be drafted following EU guidelines as it seeks the bloc’s membership. The CERT collaborates with the Center for Combating Cyber Crimes, a law enforcement organization, in the following areas: capacity building by arranging joint cybersecurity workshops and training; combating cybercrime by reporting suspected events; and raising awareness by the organization of cyber security conferences. The Center serves as the primary point of contact for issues involving cybersecurity in the Republic of Moldova.
 
Challenges in building a response team
First, to find cybersecurity experts. To establish a resilient and proactive team, Moldova has to recruit only the experts and experienced in the field. However, Moldova which is among the poorest countries of Europe lacks the resources and funds to establish an effective system against an anticipated threat.

Second, integrating all infrastructure for cybersecurity. Until now Moldova could only respond to attacks on the government service website and not on the critical infrastructure like electricity boards and telecommunication. It could not address the attacks on its business and corporate firms either. Moldova’s new CERT should protect all essential services and infrastructure of both private and public actors.
Third, this can be on how it's still lacking with received support from international
 
Third, cybersecurity is stagnant despite foreign assistance. Moldova received funds from the US, EU and NATO over the years to upgrade its cyber security infrastructure. Since 2018, the US provided USD 11 million in cybersecurity and anti-cybercrime assistance to the country. However, Moldova has failed to build the systems and infrastructure needed for its operations. The global semiconductor shortage is one of the reasons for the expensive high-quality hardware needed to monitor cyber threats. Moldova needs to receive technical knowledge and assistance from US big-techs like Microsoft and Google in addition to the funds.   
 
International assistance
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has attracted the attention of international actors to Ukraine’s neighbors. Moldova which borders south of Ukraine has been receiving war refugees from the beginning of the invasion. Perceiving Moldova as a geopolitical advantage for the west against the Kremlin, the EU and NATO has assisted the country in building strong cyberspace.
 
Earlier this year, NATO launched a new Cyber Incident Response Capability for the Moldovan Armed Forces. Using funding from the NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Program and collaboration with the NATO Information and Communication Agency (NCIA), this capability was developed throughout a multi-year effort. Which will facilitate speedy and effective recovery, reduce any harm brought on by cyber disasters, and assist stop similar occurrences in the future.
 
On 03 May 2022, the EU approved EUR eight million as a crisis response package to increase the Republic of Moldova's capacity to withstand the crisis scenario brought on by Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Such initiatives assist Moldova’sefforts to improve its information and cyber security through the development of a strong cyber security infrastructure. Another similar initiative of the EU increases Moldova's resistance to misinformation by assisting independent media, the Republic of Moldova Audiovisual Council, and encouraging direct answers to misinformation.
 
On 27 May 2022, the US relaunched the US-Moldova Strategic Dialogue in light of the war in Ukraine. The governments reaffirmed their commitment to working together to advance the media sector, support independent media, and promote rights-respecting policies to counter Russian disinformation. They also acknowledged the critical role that free and independent media play in a democracy. The significance of enhancing cybersecurity capabilities was another topic of discussion between the US and Moldova. This included cooperation to carry out Moldova's goals for government cyber modernization, to identify and safeguard vital infrastructure. As part of its crisis response, Moldovan stressed the need to strengthen strategic communication capabilities to increase resilience and combat misinformation.
 

References
Catherine Stupp, “Moldova Plans Cyber Overhauls Amid War in Neighboring Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2022
Cybersecurity Policies | Shaping Europe’s digital future,” European Commission
NATO assists Moldova in improving its cyber security capabilities,” NATO, 02 May 2022
Joint Statement on the Relanch of the U.S-Moldova Strategic Dialogue,” usembassy.gov, 27 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 157 & 158
By Sai Pranav

War on the Ground
On 29 July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) released the rate of unemployment in the country. The unemployment rate quarterly was 35 per cent. NBU expects the rate to fall to 28.9 per cent by the new year. According to a poll released by the Ukrainian Rating Group, 39 per cent were unemployed whereas only 34 per cent of Ukrainians said that their work was unchanged. NBU predicts that even though the nominal wage will grow rapidly in 2023 and 2024, the real wage might decrease due to the impact left by the war. Ukraine is also suffering from food insecurity due to the war. One in every three individuals in Ukraine is suffering from a shortage of food, according to the United Nations World Food Programme.
 
Also on 29 July, a bill that allowed the government to forcibly confiscate properties during the period of martial law passed its first reading in Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. The law dictates that properties would be seized by the government if it is deemed to be useful in the national defence. The owners of the seized properties would be compensated from the state budget in less than five following budget periods. Later the properties would be transferred to the Asset Recovery and Management Agency.
 
On the same day, the Russian Su-25 armored attack aircraft was struck down with an Igla MANPADS system by Ukraine's 25th Separate Airborne Brigade of the Sicheslav Airborne Assault Division. The assault division had shot down 29 Russian aerial weaponry including warplanes, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
 
On 30 July, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the attack on Olenivka prison by Russia a war crime. The assault on the prison that contained 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war held in the prison including the neo-nazi Azov battalion was denounced by Zelenskyy as an intentional mass murder by Russia. The Red Cross had involved itself in treating the injured prisoners who were left behind after the attack. Meanwhile, the Russians claim that Kyiv had attacked the prison with the US-supplied Himars rockets. According to Ukraine's security agency, the blast had taken place inside the building and the Russians might have done it to hide the heinous tortures and murders it committed on the prisoners.
 
On 30 July, the Ukrainian Armed Forces exposed Russian reconnaissance and made the group retreat in the Kramatorsk direction. The Russian army opened fire from tubes, rocket artillery and tanks in the direction of Kharkiv, Slovyansk, Siversky, Bakhmut, and other regions as well. Both military and civilian infrastructures were destroyed by the Russian attacks.
 
On 30 July, the Russian army opened fire on 17 settlements across the Donetsk region. The Russian forces attacked the settlements with aviation, R-500 Iskander-K missiles, artillery, and Grad MLRS. The attack resulted in civilian casualties and the destruction of 52 civilian objects such as residential buildings, hospitals, railway stations, and other things.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 July, a maritime doctrine was signed by Vladimir Putin stating that the world ocean should not be in the control of NATO or the US. The new doctrine highlights how NATO poses threat in the maritime sphere for Russia It also mentions the need to expand the Russian maritime influence on the World Ocean as well as in the Arctic region. Upon the doctrine, Russia will deploy “Zicron” hypersonic missiles in its Navy and establish a new ferry line to Kaliningrad. The doctrine ensure Russia increased participation in the north-western sea and a permanent position in the Mediterranean Sea.
 
On 30 July, Russia imposed sanctions on 32 individuals from New Zealand who were accused of having Russophobic agenda in the country. Their entry into the Russian Federation would be closed indefinitely according to the sanction. These citizens of New Zealand are representatives of the armed forces, journalists, and municipal bodies.
 
Also on 30 July, Gazprom ceased its supply of gas to Latvia stating that the country broke the terms for the extraction of gas. Latvia is speculated to have refused to pay in rubles for the gas. According to the statement by Russia's president Vladimir Putin in March, unfriendly nations would be cut off from gas supply if they do not transact their payment through rubles.
 
On 29 July, Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov's four-nation African tour yielded great results for Africa. He visited Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo-Brazzaville. These nations lean on Russia for their food security had welcomed him with open arms. Lavrov wanted to refute the west's claims of Russia exporting hunger in Africa during his visit. He blamed the west for imposing sanctions on Russian grains which in turn gave rise to food insecurities in Africa. Both the west and Russia are fighting to get the attention of the African nations.
 
Also on the same day, Russia and Ukraine failed to provide evidence for the cause of the deaths of Ukrainian POWs at the Olenivka prison. They also failed to produce evidence of the perpetrators of the attack. Russia released the official list of losses but Ukraine's officials were unable to verify the list and called for an international investigation.
 
On 31 July, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Kosovo and its backers the US and the EU to respect the rights of ethnic Serbs in the country. The Albanian ethnic in Pristina are trying to expel the Serbian population from Kosovo. She said that if Kosovo and its supporters, the US, and the EU did not respect the Serbian population, the consequences of it would escalate into a war between Pristina and Belgrade. Kosovo's prime minister announced the restriction of the Serbian licence plates and identification in the country and also will be conducting a ban on the said items.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 31 July, there has been a possibility of Finland's export industries being forced to shut down due to increasing gas prices. Although Finland's industrial sector consumes less natural gas when compared to other European countries, it still faces the consequences of the Russian gas supply disruption. The country's forestry and chemical sectors are concerned about the looming winter. The sectors rely on natural gas, so it will be difficult to go through the winter. To compensate for the natural gas that was cut off by the Russians, Finland is looking toward LNG terminals as an alternative solution.
 
On 30 July, Poland showed its backing of the proposal by the authorities of Estonia to ban Russian tourists EU-wide. This ban will be a part of the sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine. The Schengen visa provided by the EU countries is asked to be banned by Estonia. But the EU has not reached a final decision on the matter.
 
On 29 July, Norway donated 14 Iveco LAV III armoured vehicles to Ukraine. The government of Norway is considering donating more and further expanding its support to Ukraine. Norway has already donated other military equipment such as artillery, portable anti-aircraft defence weapons and much more.
 
On 31 July, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's spokesperson said that the first-grain exporting ship would leave the Ukrainian port in the Black Sea on 01 August 2022. The ships would leave the port at the latest as soon as the documents are signed. The agreement by Russia and Ukraine lets the safe exit of grain ships that were blockaded from the Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 29 July, South Korea supplied weapons to Poland in its biggest ever arms deal, bringing it closer to the Ukraine war. The deal involved 1600 tanks and howitzers and nearly 50 fighter jets. Both countries' officials signed the framework of the deal on 27 July 2022 in Warsaw. The war in Ukraine has risen the South Korean arms industry and increased its cooperation with Europe.
 
On 01 August, the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Haitham al-Gais announced that it would not compete with Russia. He called Moscow a major player and an influencer in the global oil market. He pointed out that the price of energy was increasing even before the war in Ukraine and the same was not the cause for the rise. He also said that the presence of Russia was important in the global petroleum market.


References
"Ukraine military intelligence: Russian invaders in Kherson burning military dead to conceal losses," Kyiv Post, 07 July 2022
"First UAVs from Ukraine's Army of Drones already sent to front line," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Ukraine's National Guard helicopters made 21 sorties against enemy troops over past week," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Defense ministry: Enemy attempts to reach Donetsk Region’s borders," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with Boris Johnson," President.gov.au, 07 July 2022
"President met with US Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal," President.gov.au, 07 July 2022
Russia says it destroyed American HIMARS in Ukraine,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Russia uses Stupor anti-drone guns in Ukraine for first time, TASS, 07 July 2022
DPR embassy staff begin work in Russia, top diplomat says,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Upper house to review DPR, LPR bid to join Russia if referendums take place, says speaker,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Donbass residents subjected to isolation, genocide for eight years — Putin,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Meeting with the leadership of the State Duma and heads of factions,” Kremlin.ru, 07 July 2022
Putin agreed to equate the military DPR and LPR to the status of Russian counterparts,” Lenta.ru, 07 July 2022
The Ministry of Defense announced the collection of microorganisms exported by the Americans from Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 07 July 2022
Lithuania to transfer a crowdfunded Bayraktar drone to Ukraine on Wednesday,” Reuters, 07 July 2022
Finland passes law to bolster border fence with Russia,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022
Ukrainian diaspora urges Trudeau not to return turbine to Russia,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022“UN warns of 'looming hunger catastrophe' due to Russian blockade,” The Guardian, 08 July 2022
"Russian FM looks to China for greater cooperation under pressure from the West," scmp, 07 July 2022
"As G20 set to meet with Russia and China on its mind, Bali hopes for tourism boost," scmp, 07 July 2022
"Worry and frustration in Ethiopia as subsidies cut and fuel prices soar," africanews, 06 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GERMANY
Amidst gas shortages, tensions in Germany rise regarding its ongoing nuclear shutdown
On 31 July, Germany’s finance minister Christian Lindner urged the economy minister Robert Habeck to refrain from using gas to generate electricity. Instead, he suggested that the climate-friendly nuclear power plants can be used till 2024 to generate electricity and compensate for the gas shortage. This comes in light of a growing debate in Germany about the scheduled closure of three nuclear power plants by the end of 2022. The main opposition Union bloc and ruling coalition partner Free Democrats have been advocating for the extension of the power plants. However, a similar stance is difficult for the two other coalition partners- Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats and the environmentalist Greens, as opposition to nuclear power has been the main foundation of their parties’ mandates. (Geir Moulson, “Germany argues over nuclear shutdown amid gas supply worries,” AP News, 31 July 2022)

ITALY
Protests erupt after the murder of a Nigerian migrant
On 29 July, a Nigerian migrant street seller, Alika Ogorchukwu was killed in the Civitanova Marche town. This was following requests by Ogorchukwu to sell handkerchiefs for “pocket change.” The suspect for the murder, a 32-year-old man from Salerno was arrested. Even though the incident was witnessed by onlookers, nobody tried to help Ogorchukwu. Hundreds of Italians and the people from the Nigerian community in Italy protested the incident, criticizing the far right parties in power in the Marche region. They also protested against their xenophobic tendencies and their rising popularity on a national level. Giorgia Meloni of the ruling Brothers of Italy party and Matteo Salvini from the far-right Northern League party have denounced the killing and urged for maximum possible punishment for the perpetrator. (Lorenzo Tondo and Angela Giuffrida, “Killing of Nigerian street seller causes outrage in Italy,” The Guardian, 31 July 2022)

PORTUGAL
Firefighters struggle to control wildfire close to Lisbon
On 31 July, huge blazes were reported in Portugal, where the ongoing European heatwave is exacerbating the active wildfires. 400 firefighters along with 123 vehicles and water bombers struggled to contain a fire that had erupted in the Mafra municipality near Lisbon. Several roads were thus blocked by the authorities, and the residents in a nearby care home were evacuated. Many locals also left their homes in fear. More blazes were also reported in the Ourem municipality. Portugal’s weather agency, the IMPA has also issued red alerts for three districts in the north for extreme heat on 01 August. (“Hundreds of firefighters battle blaze near Lisbon,” Reuters, 01 August, 2022)

KOSOVO
Rise in protests forced authorities to close two border crossings with Serbia
On 31 July, amid rising tension with Serbia, Kosovo closed two border crossings and postponed the implementation of two border rules. The police closed down Berinjak and Jarinje border crossings due to protests about the new rules, according to which, all people with Serbian IDs entering Kosovo would have to replace the IDS with a temporary document. Moreover, cars with Serbian license plates will also have to change them with license plates issued by Kosovo. The implementation of the rules has now been postponed to 01 September, after consultation with EU and US ambassadors. NATO also announced that they are prepared to intervene, if the protests escalate and “stability is jeopardised.” (“Kosovo closes two border crossings with Serbia amid rising tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 31 July 2022)

MARITIME
Expedition finds 350-year-old rare jewels from the seabed in the Bahamas
On 31 July, The Guardian reported that an expedition headed by Allen Exploration along with marine archaeologists from the US and the Bahamas explored the Little Bahama Bank region. They have discovered jewellery dating back 350 years, from the wrecks of the ‘Nuestra Señora de las Maravillas’, an old Spanish sailing ship that had sunk in 1656. The ship had been carrying treasures from Havana to Spain when it hit a reef, leaving behind only 45 survivors out of the 650 people on board. Led by Carl Allen, the expedition is using cutting-edge science to figure out how exactly the Maravillas were wrecked and how far the debris might have been scattered. They are also collecting data on the reef health, seafloor geology and plastics pollution in the oceans. Allen said: “The colourful coral that divers remembered from the 70s is gone, poisoned by ocean acidification and choked by metres of shifting sand. It’s painfully sad. Still lying on those dead grey reefs, though, are sparkling finds.”  (Dalya Alberge, “After 350 years, sea gives up lost jewels of Spanish shipwreck,” The Guardian, 31 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
EU prepares for escalation in US-China relations regarding Taiwan
On 31 July, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she and a congressional delegation will tour Asia and is rumored to visit Taiwan. EU officials have been observing the developments with regard to China and the US regarding Taiwan and Pelosi’s impending visit is further fuelling the EU’s need to prepare for a possible US-China military standoff. UK’s defence ministry has suggested arming Taiwan to not repeat the same mistakes as they did in Ukraine. Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said that China’s “self-confident and above all robust appearance” about Taiwan would pose as a challenge. Furthermore, the vice chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee issued a warning saying that the intensifying war in Ukraine has also increased the risk of Chinese aggression in Taiwan. (Stuart Lau and Lili Bayer, “EU braces for China-US escalation risk as Taiwan tensions rise,” POLITICO, 01 August 2022)


30 July 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #268

War in Ukraine: Day 155 | Blame game over Olenivka POW attacks

Ireland’s ‘problematic’ emission goals; Eurozone records highest-ever inflation; Spain reports first European monkeypox death; Turkey resents Baerbock’s pro-Greece comments; Finland, UK and US’s joint military exercise

Photo : AP Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 156
By Emmanuel Royan
 

War on the Ground
On 29 July, Ukrainian intelligence reported that mercenaries from the Russian private military firm, the Wagner Group, murdered Ukrainian Prisoners of War in the temporarily held village of Olenivka in the Donetsk area. On July 28, a large explosion occurred there. The Chief Directorate of Intelligence stated: "The explosions in Olenivka, which killed Ukrainian defenders, are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism committed by the occupier’s armed forces."

On 29 July, the ministry of infrastructure reported on the process of loading the initial ships under the "grain deal" signed. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, ambassadors from the G7 nations, Turkey, and UN representatives. Ten of the 17 ships that have previously been loaded at the ports of "Odesa" and "Chornomorsk" are prepared to go. The minister of infrastructure of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kubrakov stated: "For the first time since February 24, work has resumed in the seaports of Ukraine. Ships that were loaded with grain in the winter are ready to leave as soon as our partners, the UN and Turkey, agree on a ‘green corridor’ towards the Bosphorus Strait." 
 
During the observation, Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine is awaiting the proper cues from allies, including UN and Turkish officials, before beginning grain shipments. He further mentioned that exports may start soon. He stated: "Our side is completely ready. Our military ensures the security situation, and we conveyed clear signals to our partners, the UN and Turkey. The UN and the Turkish side are in direct touch with the minister of infrastructure, and we are awaiting their signal to begin.
 
On 29 July, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba stated that the Civil Protection Mechanism of the EU will be used to help clear mines from formerly occupied territories in Ukraine, as Slovenia plans to send civilian mine-clearing equipment to Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 
On 29 July, the Russian deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko reported that 40 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed and 75 were injured when Ukrainian forces used HIMARS rockets to attack a jail in separatist-held territory. Ukraine said that Russia launched the attack to unjustly implicate Kyiv. The building allegedly housed soldiers of the Ukrainian Azov Battalion, who surrendered to Russian and Donbas troops during the siege of the Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol.
 
Also on 29 July, the deputy chief executive of Gazprom, Vitaly Markelov stated that Russia's gas supply to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has to be reduced because of turbine issues. He told 
Russia-24 TV that the problems are a result of the German corporation Siemens, which manufactures and repairs the turbines. Markelov claims Siemens has only successfully fixed one-fourth of all detected issues with its turbines.
 
The chairman of Latvijas Gaze reported that despite refusing to comply with Moscow's demand for payment in rubles, Latvia has continued to purchase Russian natural gas. According to the chairman: "Latvijas Gaze is now purchasing gas, but we do not purchase gas from Gazprom since we are unable to pay Gazprom." 


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  
On 29 July, to update its military to NATO standards, North Macedonia proposed to provide Ukraine with an undefined number of Soviet-era tanks. In a statement: " North Macedonia has determined that a specific number of these tanks would be provided to Ukraine, in line with its demands, taking into consideration these circumstances and the requirements of the Ukrainian defence ministry." 
 
Belarus’s foreign ministry recalled its ambassador to the UK to return to Minsk. As a result of London's "hostile" sanctions on Minsk for its suppression of the 2020 protests and participation in Russia's war in Ukraine. On the removal of the ambassador, the ministry said: "...does not imply that we are cutting off contact with London."
 
The German defence ministry stated that it would send 16 tanks to Ukraine that may be used to build temporary bridges or assist in repairing damaged ones so that troops and military vehicles can cross rivers. It mentioned that the Biber tanks would help Ukraine strengthen its combat. The ministry further added that the first six systems will be supplied this year beginning in the fall and that 10 further systems would follow in 2019. 
 
On 28 July, the spokesperson of the US State Department Ned Price announced that the US and 37 other nations are organizing an expert team to assess the human rights situation in Russia. In response to recent Russian actions to restrict freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, as well as reports of torture of those held in detention in Russia, Price said in a statement that the review was sparked by the use of the "Moscow Mechanism" of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war 
On 29 July, following the postponement of diplomatic talks for the war-torn nation due to Russian demands, which were related to its invasion of Ukraine, the UN is proposing a "firewall" surrounding the procedure involving Syria. The ninth round of negotiations on a new Syrian constitution was supposed to take place this week in Geneva under the auspices of Geir Pedersen, the UN Special Envoy for Syria. However, Moscow objected to the location, apparently saying that Switzerland, which has imposed sanctions due to the Ukraine War, is not impartial, forcing them to postpone. The war-torn nation's constitution is the subject of exploratory discussions. The discussions may have opened the door to a more extensive political procedure. 
 
On 29 July, the China-Europe Railway Express, which offers an alternative to shipping goods maritime between Asia and Europe, maybe exhibit indications of slowdown because of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. As a result prices for shipping containers have been reduced by an average of 20 per cent.  
 
Also on 29 July, China said that the US had double standard positions by contesting Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan while emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty following a Russian invasion. In a discussion on Ukraine at the 15-member UN Security Council, deputy UN ambassador Geng Shuang reiterated Chinese leader Xi Jinping's warning to US President Joe Biden against playing with fire over Taiwan. 
 

References
It is important that Ukraine remains the guarantor of world food security - President in the Odesa region,” president of Ukraine, 29 July 2022
Ten ships loaded with grain ready to leave ‘Odesa’ and ‘Chornomorsk’ ports,” ukrinform, 29 July 2022
Slovenia to Provide Mine-Sweeping Equipment to Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 29 July 2022
Wagner Group members kill Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka – intelligence data,” Ukrinform, 29 July 2022
Russia says Ukraine struck prison in Donetsk region, killing 40,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
Russia claims Ukraine had a reason to kill its own POWs,” rt.com, 29 July 2022
EU country buying Russian gas despite claiming otherwise,” rt.com, 29 July 2022
Russia’s energy giant explains gas flow reduction to EU,” rt.com, 29 July 2022
North Macedonia donates tanks to Ukraine as it modernises own military,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
U.S. sanctions two Russians for malign influence operations,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
Belarus Recalls its UK Ambassador Over 'Hostile' Sanctions,” KyivPost, 29 July 2022
Russia-Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy condemns attack on POW prison,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2022.
Blinken and Russia's Lavrov have 'frank' discussion about detained citizens,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
OSCE countries to review human rights situation in Russia,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
UN urges firewall around Syria discussions amid Russian opposition,” Daily Sabah, 29 July 2022
China-Europe rail shipping growth slows as Ukraine war pushes companies back to the seas,” scmp.com, 29 July 2022
As U.S. defends Ukraine at U.N., China warns against challenge over Taiwan,” Reuters, 29 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee


IRELAND
Ireland’s emission cut goals were deemed as problematic
On 29 July, the chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council in Ireland, Maria Donelly said that the sectoral targets set by the cabinet on cutting down greenhouse gas emissions are “problematic.” On 28 July, Ireland’s parliament finalized completed plans to cut down their emission by 25 per cent by 2023. Donelly said that these cuts are not in keeping with the carbon budgets or the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act. The act mandates a total reduction of 51 per cent, while the current cuts show a reduction of only 43 per cent. (“Climate change: Republic of Ireland emission cuts 'problematic',” BBC, 29 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Eurozone inflation stands highest at 8.9 per cent
On 29 July, Euronews reported that in July, the inflation in the Eurozone recorded the highest at 8.9 per cent. Increasing concerns about the possibility of inflation, this rise shows a marked slowdown of the bloc's economy. Among the countries that use the Euro as a single currency, the Baltic States are most affected because of their dependence on ‌imports- Estonia (22.7 per cent), Latvia (21 per cent), and Lithuania (20.8 per cent). Other than these countries, Belgium, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Netherlands, Slovenia, and Slovakia are also in the double-digit category. The core inflation in the bloc stands at four per cent, which is the highest since the creation of the euro. This rise in the inflation rate is because of the spillover of the disruption in the global energy markets, the global food crisis, and China's strict zero-covid lockdowns. (Jorge Liboreiro, “Inflation across the eurozone reaches new all-time high of 8.9%,” Euronews, 29 July 2022)

Spain and Brazil record first non-African monkeypox death
On 29 July, Spain and Brazil recorded the first monkeypox-related deaths outside Africa. The current outbreak which started in May has been concentrated in Europe, which has 70 per cent of the current infections. Recently declared a public health emergency, monkeypox has spread to 78 countries. In Spain, the health ministry's emergency and alert coordination center announced that 4298 cases have been registered so far, among which information is recorded for 3750 patients. Of them, only 64 are women, 120 have been hospitalized and one has expired. The Spanish health ministry has not provided any further details on the deceased. (“Monkeypox: Brazil, Spain report first deaths outside Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2022)

German foreign minister criticized by Turkey for her pro-Greece comments
On 29 July, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock spoke at a news conference in Athens and addressed the disputes between Turkey and Greece. She mentioned that Germany will always stick up for the EU family and said: "Lesbos, Chios, Rhodes, and many, many others ... are Greek territory, and no one has the right to query this." Bearbock’s comments have drawn criticism from Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, who maintains that Germany should maintain their “balanced stance” and not provoke further animosity between the two Aegean countries. Greece has criticized Turkey and Germany’s joint venture with Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems to build six 214-class submarines and have asked Germany to stop the delivery of military equipment to Turkey. (“Baerbock's Aegean islands remarks in Greece anger Turkey,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Meta reissues warning on the imminent ban of their services in Europe
On 29 July, in a US regulatory filing, Meta Platforms Inc. reiterated its warning that unless the deadlock regarding the new transatlantic data transfer pact is not resolved, they will be forced to stop their business in the European Union. If favorable deliberations are further delayed, Meta could face a ban by the Irish Data Protection Commission against EU-US data transfers. Meta said that unless a new framework is released and if they are unable to depend on SSCs or other alternative means of data transfers, they will not be able to provide services like Facebook and Instagram, in Europe. However, they added that this “would materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.” (“Meta Repeats Why It May Be Forced to Pull Facebook From EU,” Bloomberg, 30 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Finland, the UK, and the US conduct joint military exercise
On 29 July, 150 troops from the UK joined Finland and the US forces in Finland for “high-readiness” exercises. The exercise will be conducted over four days and involved 750 troops. UK’s troops stationed in Estonia were also flown in for the exercise which comes weeks after Finland and Sweden signed the accession protocol for NATO. UK Wing Commander, Stephen Boyle said: "As Finland moves towards full NATO Membership, we will continue to seek opportunities like this to show solidarity with Finland, learn from each other and improve our ability to operate together." (Kathryn Snowdon, “UK troops in Finland exercise amid Russia threat,” BBC, 30 July 2022)


29 July 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #266

Will Russia's attack on Odessa port, undermine grain deal with Ukraine? | War in Ukraine: Day 155

Macron meets Saudi prince amidst protest against bin Salman; Paris to adopt museum cooling systems to counter heatwave; New emission plan cuts down agricultural sector by 25 per cent

Photo : Scott Reinhard/Zach Levitt/The New York Times


EM COMMENT
Will Russia's latest attack on the Odessa port, undermine the grain deal with Ukraine?
By Padmashree Anandhan

What was Russia-Ukraine grain deal?
On 22 July, representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkiye, and the UN met to mediate a deal to remove the Russian blockade from Ukraine’s ports. All the actors in the deal agreed to sign upon the setting up of the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul, which will overlook the vessels that will enter Ukraine’s ports to keep a check on cargoes, personnel, and possible attacks. The key aspects of the deal are, first, it will allow the exporting of grains, foodstuff, fertilizers, and ammonia through three Black Sea ports, Odesa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny.  Second, it mandates registration of every vehicle that will pass through the humanitarian maritime corridor and shall be inspected by Turkiye authorities to check the cargoes and personnel entering and exiting Ukraine. Third, the vessels passing through the corridor will be monitored by all parties to the agreement and will be subject to direct inspection if any suspicious activity traced. Fourth, the signed deal is applicable for 120 days and will be extended for the same period unless one of the parties calls for termination or modification.

Why did Moscow and Kyiv agree to the deal?
The reason behind Russia and Ukraine accepting the deal varies at different levels. At the domestic, Ukraine is the top producer of grain, cooking oil, fertilizers, wheat, corn, and sunflower oil, the deal will help reduce the economic damage, prevent the threat of running out of storage facility for grains and re-start the exports. From the perspective of war, Ukraine wanted a security guarantee to carry out its exports without disruption and interventions from Russia. With the deal provided Ukraine’s export a safe path through the maritime corridor and monitored the movement of the ships, which meant an equal hand for Ukraine to sign the deal.

For Russia, withdrawing its blockade from Ukraine’s key Black Sea ports might be a step back on the war front. In terms of economy, the deal matters more to Russia. With sanctions from the west blocking its wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russia sees this as an opportunity to use the mirror agreement which was scheduled to be signed after the grain deal to export its goods free of sanctions. The Russian economy is already struggling with excess oil and grains, the deal could be a start to striking future deals to ease its economic loss.

In terms of the deal, Russia is in a better position than Ukraine. After the sinking of the Moskva ship, Russia’s limitation in the navy was revealed, but it recouped and was successful in causing disruption to Ukraine’s maritime traffic to scare away the shipping firms. Therefore, if the mirror deal is not signed or Russia’s demands on exporting its grains sanction free not met, then the possible next step would be to interrupt Ukraine’s maritime route again. On the other hand, since Turkiye is the overseeing inspector and is a close ally, Russia will be able to keep a close check on the goods that enter or exit and prevent the supply of weapons through waterways to Ukraine.

Another important factor for Russia is its international reputation, apart from close partnering countries like China, India, and a few countries in Europe, and Africa all have shunned their economic trade and relations due to the war and pressure from the US. To keep up its international image and economy, it requires international links. Therefore, to showcase that its issue lies only with Ukraine and not the rest of the world which is facing the food crisis, Russia opted to green signal the deal.


Why was the grain deal important for rest of the world?
Ukraine has nine ports that form part of the north-western Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Amongst the nine ports, Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi contribute the highest per cent of grain exports. Major importers of Ukraine’s grain are east African countries, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, and the Middle-East country, Yemen. These countries are not only dependent on Ukraine’s grain exports but also face economic downturns and acute hunger. Russia launching the war and forcing Ukraine’s maritime trade to close down has pushed others to face the price hike and increased food shortages. Although certain remote ports in Bosporus Straits have continued to operate, it has not been sufficient. At the regional level, Ukraine is considered the “breadbasket” for Europe, and with Russia blocking the port entrances, Europe attempted to re-route the grain export through the Danube Delta of Romania, or through road or train from Moldova and Lithuania. Since the attempts failed due to challenges in scraping the way for ships, issues in train gauges, and logistics, Ukraine transiting its grains is more crucial than ever for the regional and international. Challenges still exist, as shipping companies might fear engaging due to high risk in freight and insurance, but through the deal, the accumulated grains can be unloaded from silos and exported using the agreed humanitarian maritime corridor.

Will the missile attack on ports torpedo the deal?
According to the deal, no foreign personnel can be in the Ukraine port, only the monitoring of ship movement and inspection of cargoes in the ship is open for all parties to the deal. In terms of missile attacks, Russia is barred from launching any attacks on the port facility, ships, and civilian vessels that enter and exit Ukraine and JCC. As per the agreed conditions of the deal, the signatories are banned from attacking the ports, ships, and civilian vessels engaged in grain exports. Therefore, Russia’s recent attack on Odesa port does break the deal, regardless of the target being a military infrastructure or a silo.

On the probability of such attacks, one, Russia would consider its economy and its international equation before launching, but for short-term gains, such as signing similar deals to withdraw its forces from other ports or important industrial cities. Two, to maintain its sphere of influence, it can carry out missile attacks to take down Ukraine’s military that stand guard of the ports.


War in Ukraine: Day 155
By Rishma Banerjee  
 

War on the ground 
On 28 July, Ukraine forces reported on the Russian attacks in the Chernihiv region and Sumy region. Where artillery fire took place in the Kharkiv region and two Mi-8 helicopters struck near Staryi Saltiv. Ukraine observed that the launch of 22 missiles and 10 artillery strikes in the Mykolaiv region had also hit the regional center. Russia also launched attacks in the Sloviansk, and the Southern Buh region with tanks, and tube and rocket artillery, but no new activity were recorded in the Kramatorsk direction.
 
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a poll which revealed that 84 per cent of the citizens in Ukraine are against any territorial concessions. The poll sampled from 06-20 July showed a similar result to the previous poll held in May, where 82 per cent of people believed that losing territory was not an option.
 
The spokesperson of the security service of Ukraine, Artem Dekhtiarenko said that Russia was preparing to hold “pseudo-referendums” on the territories that they have occupied. Dekhtiarenko alleged that the organization, DPR, which already has over 1000 members were being used to mobilize more people.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 28 July, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov held meetings with leaders from Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo-Brazzaville Ethiopia’s president, Sahle-Work Zewde, and foreign minister, Demeke Mekonnen. During the visit, Lavrov blamed the West for imposing sanctions on Russia which has impacted the prices of the grains. In his meeting in Egypt, he assured that Russia would stand committed in exporting its grains. Egypt is one most dependent country on wheat from Russia and Ukraine which has been severely affected by the war.
 
The commander of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Admiral Igor Osipove congratulated the navy on the Day of the Navy. He reiterated that it was the Black Sea Fleet's resilience that made it possible for Russia to gain control in the Azov sea region.
 
On the same day, the deputy head of the Kherson region’s military-civil administration, Kirill Stremousov said that Kherson is preparing to hold a referendum on the region. If passed, the region will become a full-fledged constituent entity of Russia.
 
Also on 28 July, Russia’s media regulator Roskomnadzor filed a lawsuit to revoke the registration of the independent newspaper, 
Novaya Gazeta. The media had already stopped operating in Russia since March after warnings from Roskomnadzor about removing anti-Russian content from its website. If its registration is stripped off, journalists in Novaya Gazeta will lose the right to work in Russia, even if the paper resumes operations later.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
  
On 28 July, the UK government disclosed on the count of applications received from the Ukrainian refugees. According to the UK, close to 198,200 applications have been received and 166,200 visas have been issued. To deal with the refugee influx, the UK provided visas under its two schemes, if one of the family members of the Ukrainian resides in the UK and next if any of the UK residents offer to give accommodation to the Ukrainian. Initially, the UK faced criticism for the long visa process, which later converted to digital applications.

The UK’s foreign minister Liz Truss, who is contesting for the Tory party leadership said that she would be Ukraine’s “greatest friend” if elected to office. She promised to provide more weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, ensuring a “strategic defeat” for Putin.
 
Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki met Germany’s opposition leader Friedrich Merz to address the tense relations between the two states. Morawiecki criticized Germany for delaying the arms delivery to Ukraine and said that the time taken by Germany to fulfill its commitment was “not satisfactory.”
 
US retired lieutenant general Ben Hodges commented on Ukraine's position in the war. He remarked that if the pace of foreign aid and assistance is increased, then Ukraine might be able to win the war by the end of 2022.
 
On 28 July, Estonia said that it will not allow people from Russia to avail temporary residence permits or student visas in the country. The foreign minister reiterated that this move was to create “relentless pressure” on Russia.
 
Hanover, Germany introduced energy-saving measures, where public monuments and fountains will be switched off, and only cold showers will be available in municipal swimming pools and sports halls. Berlin also switched the lights off in about 200 historic monuments and municipal buildings. The measures are to reduce Europe’s energy consumption due to a potential stoppage of Russian gas supplies,
 
On the same day, the European Commission revealed that it will amend the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) proposal to take into account Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant changes in the geopolitics of the region. The commission said that the war has affected global markets, supply chains, and food security, and has shown how critical it is to maintain the connectivity amongst EU member states. As per the amended proposal, Russia and Belarus will be removed from the TEN-T map, while Ukraine and Moldova will be added. Commissioner for Transport Adina Valean said: “...our proposal will help improve transport connectivity between these two countries and the EU, facilitating economic exchanges and better connections for people and businesses alike.”
 
A review of the humanitarian situation, freedom of expression, and peaceful assembly in Russia was initiated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE). The US and 37 other countries will now establish an expert mission to conduct a thorough review of the human rights situation in Russia.


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war 

On 27 July, AP News reported that the Philippine government has canceled a deal with Russia for the purchase of 16 military transport helicopters. The former defence secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that he with the approval of the former president Rodrigo Duterte had canceled the deal due to fears of possible US sanctions under their federal law called the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.  
 
Following the Black Sea shipping agreement, India plans to resume their import of Ukrainian sunflower oil. The Sunvin Group estimates that they will receive about 50-60,000 tonnes of sunflower oil by September, thus bringing some relief to the world’s largest edible oils importer. Reportedly, India imports nearly 2 million tonnes of sunflower oil annually, 75 percent of which comes from Ukraine

Europe’s second largest car manufacturer, the Volkswagon group, called for buyers announcing its decision to sell off its business. Volkswagon has a factory in Kaluga with a capacity to produce 225,000 vehicles per year. 
 

References
Ukraine’s Armed Forces repulse Russian offensive on Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka,” Ukrinform, 29 July 2022
84% of Ukrainians Convinced Territorial Concessions to the Occupiers Cannot be Allowed,” Kyiv Post, 28 July 2022
Jason Jay Smart, “Russia Plans to Hold ‘Sham’ Referendum in Occupied Territories of Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 28 July 2022
Russians launch 22 missile and 10 artillery strikes on Mykolayiv region in past day,” Ukrinform, 28 July 2022
Ethiopia: Lavrov meets govt leaders in Addis, attacks global reliance on US dollar,” Africanews, 28 July 2022
The commander announced the dominance of the Black Sea Fleet in the Sea of ​​Azov,” TASS, 28 July 2022
Kherson Region to hold referendum, accede to Russia soon — official,” TASS, 28 July 2022
Russia's media regulator asks for Novaya Gazeta's registration to be revoked,” Reuters, 28 July 2022
Europe’s largest carmaker leaving Russia – media,” RT, 28 July 2022
Samantha Lock and Jedidajah Otte, “Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 156 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 29 July 2022
Jon Shelton, “Warsaw criticizes Germany over delay of military equipment as Merz visits,” Deutsche Welle, 28 July 2022
Transport infrastructure: Commission amends TEN-T proposal to reflect infrastructure impacts of Russia's aggression against Ukraine,” European Commission, 28 July 2022
More than 100,000 Ukrainians have come to Britain since war –government,” Reuters, 28 July 2022
Situation on battlefield significantly turning in Ukraine’s favor – US general,” Ukrinform, 28 July 2022
Philip Oltermann, “German cities impose cold showers and turn off lights amid Russian gas crisis,” The Guardian, 29 July 2022
OSCE countries to review human rights situation in Russia,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
Jim Gomez, “AP Exclusive: Philippines scraps Russian chopper deal,” AP News, 27 July 2022
In a Sign of Hope, India Plans to Resume Buying Ukrainian Ag Cargoes,” The Maritime Executive, 28 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

IRELAND
Farmers are expected to cut down carbon emissions by 25 per cent
On 28 July, the Republic of Ireland's government's climate action plan requested the agricultural sector to cut carbon emissions by 25 per cent. The per cent of carbon emissions cut was decided after long negotiations between the three coalition parties of Ireland. The Irish Farmers' association has stated that they will protest against the carbon emission cut plan if it affects Irish farmers and the rural economy. The emission ceilings are set to be achieved by 2030 by the Irish government. (“Farmers in Republic of Ireland to be asked to cut emissions by 25%,” BBC, 28 July 2022)

FRANCE
Paris to undertake cooling system across the city
On 28 July, Paris decided to build the largest cooling system to fight against the heatwave that has spread across the city. Paris City Hall has agreed to a contract with the private company that takes care of the cooling systems in museums to triple its network by 2042. The cooling system injects cool water into the air to keep the surrounding areas chilled. The system uses a network of underground water pipes that takes water from the river Seine, which will help Paris cool down by one degree Celsius. (Angela Symons, “Paris’ eco-friendly underground cooling system to become the largest in the world,” euronews, 28 July 2022)

REGIONAL
EU's new antitrust directorate to be headed by two veterans
On 28 July, two experienced antitrust officials, Albert Bacchiega, director of information, communication, and media, who is the chief of antitrust and merger cases involving the tech, media, and consumer electronics industries as well as Thomas Kramler, head of the unit dealing with antitrust cases in e-commerce and data economy, are being considered by the European Commission to become the head of its new directorate. Both the veterans will take up the task to implement the Digital Markets Act effectively. The act forces tech giants like Google, Apple, Meta, and Amazon to push the usage of competing services by users rather than pushing their products. This will allow other companies to have a chance and the tech giants will be forfeited from using consumer data as leverage. (Foo Yun Chee, “EXCLUSIVE EU mulls new unit with antitrust veterans to enforce tech rules - sources,” Reuters, 28 July 2022)

Germany advises Greece to systematically investigate refugee pushback on its border
On 28 July, Germany's foreign minister visited Greece to discuss important matters regarding the pushback of refugees and Berlin's world war II reparations. Germany was accused of not taking any actions against the pushback allegations on the Greek borders even though one of its newspaper agencies, Der Spiegel reported on the issue. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) is said to be involved in the issue. Asylum seekers fleeing countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan travel to Turkey to get into Europe via Greece. But they are ignored, push-backed, and face human rights violations at the hands of Frontex. The Greeks deny the allegation and also say that the country has the right to protect its border. Baerbock had called on the Greek authorities to further investigate the issue systematically. (“Greece: Baerbock calls for investigation into pushbacks at EU borders,” Deutsche Welle, 28 July 2022

INTERNATIONAL
Saudi prince's visit to France face a lot of heat from Jamal Khashoggi’s relatives
On 28 July, Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman met with France's president Emmanuel Macron when he visited Paris. Amid the rising energy crisis, talks for energy trade between Saudi Arabia and France were discussed between the two leaders. The welcoming of prince bin Salman met with criticisms from many people including the relatives of the deceased journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi was killed by some Saudi agents in their consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Speculations of prince bin Salman being involved in the murder have led to outrages against the meeting between Macron and Mohammed bin Salman. Relatives of the journalist are pleading with France to arrest the Saudi prince. But due to the necessity of energy trade between the OPEC country and France, no actions are taken against prince bin Salman. (“Paul Kirby, “Saudi Crown prince's lavish Macron visit prompts outcry,” BBC, 28 July 2022


28 July 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #265

Italy's migration crisis | War in Ukraine: Day 154

Germany’s law on whistleblowing; Sweden refuses to return Polish documents; Lords Committee suggests permanency for Northern Ireland Protocol; EU officials hacked by Pegasus; Denser cities in Europe; ESA’s Mars rover to aim for the moon

Photo : SOS Méditerranée/Fabian Mondl/UN


IN FOCUS

Italy’s migration crisis
By Emmanuel Royan

On 24 July, Italy’s coast guard and other international non-governmental organizations rescued 674 people and recovered five dead bodies from an overcrowded fishing trawler. In addition, another 522 people rescued from 15 boats were brought to Lampedusa. Many of those make the risky crossing on makeshift boats provided by smugglers, and when the boats break down, they are frequently left abandoned in the middle of the Mediterranean sea. One of the riskiest routes for illegal migration is the Mediterranean and the northwest Atlantic region, where 3,231 have been reported by the United Nations High High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to have died or missing in 2021.

Who are the migrants?
Since the 1990s, there has been an increase in "irregular" African migration through the Mediterranean. They boarded boats from Morocco and Tunisia to travel to Spain and Italy. There was also an inflow of migrants from economically unstable countries like the Ivory Coast, Liberia, Somalia, and Eritrea. Twenty years later, individuals from all across Africa and portions of Asia departed from Turkish, Egyptian, and Libyan ports to attempt the crossing. Such people are migrants who leave due to war, oppression, and poverty. These migrants are found to be traveling in dangerous wooden fishing boats that are overloaded and flimsy polyurethane sailboats that are hardly fit for crossing a river. Before the Covid-19 outbreak, the number of people undertaking these travels is observed to be reduced since 2015 when more than a million migrants crossed the Mediterranean to reach Europe. Prior years saw reports of 123,300 individual crossings in 2021. Despite fewer crossings, the death toll has sharply increased.

Three issues faced by the migrants
First, the treatment of migrants. The Lampedusa Island of Italy is the predominant destination for migrants traveling by sea as it is closer to North Africa. The refugee center located in Lampedusa has a capacity of only 300 beds. However, it hosts more than 2000 migrants. The Italian Navy had to relocate the migrants to other parts of Sicily, as the camps had exhausted their resources due to high populations. Other issues such as bad sanitary facilities, lack of privacy, and no demarcation for men and women for sleeping which shows bad handling of the migrants.
 
Second, the public attitude toward migrants. The Italian locals initially welcomed the migrants, particularly in Lampedusa and Sicily. Some of them even adopted and sponsored Tunisian children. However, over the years of excess migration, the locals have started to resent them. There were instances of protests against a few migrant centers for negatively impacting their vital tourism industry. The sentiments of Italians have also been capitalized on by the far-right party leaders in their campaigns for the upcoming snap elections after the recent collapse of the government. Two groups, in particular, Matteo Salvini's League and the right-wing Brothers of Italy party, frequently bring up the topic of immigration and routinely use immigration to mobilize voters, especially since Europe's refugee crisis in 2015.
 
Third, International actors' responses to the migration. Following the 2015 Migration crisis, the EU realized the threat and focused on border management through Frontex, the European Border, and Coast Guard Agency, and gave priority to building barriers to accessing its borders, stepping up surveillance, and making non-governmental organizations’ search and rescue operations illegal. Securitization increased the risk and difficulty of the maritime journey but did not decrease migrant fatalities. Instead, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that the Central Mediterranean Route (CMR) has resulted in more migrant deaths than any other waterway in the world years. Italy, on the verge of collapse, has threatened the EU to block foreign boats from bringing in the rescued people in the Mediterranean to share the load of the thousands of migrants that flood into the nation every day. The EU has pledged its assistance and will continue to do so, but little has changed over the years.


War in Ukraine: Day 154
By Padmashree Anandhan 
 
War on the ground 
On 27 July, Ukraine’s navy reported on the continuation of activities in the Odesa, Chernomorsk, and Pivdennyi ports after the deal was signed to export. In a statement: “Military and civilian specialists carefully search for underwater objects and install special means of navigation equipment that will help the safety of navigation.”
 
On 27 July, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal met the Republic of Slovenia, minister of foreign affairs, Tanja Fajon in Ukraine to discuss Slovenia’s support for the EU’s sanction package and establishing a special tribunal against Russia for the committed crimes in Ukraine.
 
On the same day, in his address, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will be exporting electricity shortly to the EU to support the energy shortage caused by Russia. He said: “We are preparing to increase our export of electricity to consumers in the European Union, our exports allow us not only to earn foreign currency but also to help our partners withstand Russian energy pressure.”
 
Zelenskyy proposed for a new top prosecutor to replace Iryna Venediktova who was terminated due to links with Russian agencies. The parliament is yet to vote on the new replacement.
 
On 27 July, the ministry of agrarian policy and food of Ukraine reported on how organic production in Ukraine remains one of the key tasks and disclosed how Ukraine’s production capacity has increased 1.5 times with regards to “organic grain and oil products to the EU, soybeans, honey, vegetables, and fruits.” According to the agricultural policy and food of Ukraine, the first deputy minister, by 2030 Ukraine will aim to increase its exports in organic products to USD one billion.
 
The Ukraine forces reported on the Russian shelling which was observed across Kharkiv, the Dnipropetrovsk, the Mykolaiv, the Sumy, the Donetsk, the Zaporizhzhia, the Luhansk, and the Kherson regions. It also reported the count of combat losses faced by Russia, including 40070 troops, 883 artillery systems, 2847 military auto vehicles and fuel tanks, 174 cruise missiles, and 726 tactical UAVs

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

 On 27 July, TASS reported that a bridge in Kherson held by Russia was attacked by Ukraine in an attempt to take back control. The Antonovsky bridge is considered the main crossing point to reach the Dnieper River which has been important for Russia to transfer its supplies.
 
On the EU continuing its ban on RT France, Russia accused the EU of being “extremely negative.” RT France which had re-appealed to remove the ban to broadcast it channel in the EU. The ECJ ruled stating the content casted was promoting “war-propaganda and demoralizing Ukraine,” and rejected the appeal.
 
A Russian spokesperson from the LPR region confirmed on Russia gained control of Uglegorsk thermal power plant in Svetlodarsk which was initially possessed by Ukraine. He said: “As they were withdrawing, the enemy spared no effort, no ammunition to destroy the infrastructure of the power plant.”
 
Russian forces reported on LPR and DPR forces had achieved bringing Novoluganskoye in control. Novoluganskoye is located seven kilometers from Uglegorsk thermal plant, north of Gorlovka region.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 27 July, the Turkish defence minister confirmed the installation of the Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul. He said that the center will use civilian and military personnel from Russia and Ukraine to monitor the ship movements and inspect to ensure no banned weapons are transported into Ukraine.
 
The UK ministry of defence’s intelligence reported on the forward movement of Russia’s Wagner Group on the ground in Donbas surrounding the Vuhlehirska power plant. As per its observation, the Ukraine forces were seen to have withdrawn from the region.
 
Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has once again warned Sweden and Finland on not satisfying the agreed conditions of Turkey placed during the NATO Madrid summit. He has accused Sweden especially for not still initiating the extradition process of the listed suspects by Turkey. Cavusoglu said: “They must fulfill their responsibilities, or we'll block their NATO bids.”
 
Germany’s minister of foreign affairs Annalena Baerbock affirmed the supply of IRIS-T to Ukraine by end of August. The promised defence system was earlier meant to be given to Egypt and is now being sent to Ukraine. The IRIS-T SLM launcher will help in deploying close to 20-kilometer distance, provides 360-degree protection, and high power firing capacity with multiple target capacities.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war 

The International Energy Agency’s executive director warned the EU member states that with the steps taken on gas cut down against Russia might result in “serious rationing.” He said that Europe’s immediate steps to minimize gas usage will make the winter situation challenging.
 
Ukraine-Canadian's most famous band, the Balaklava Blues have raised CAD 500,000 through concerts and charity events to help Ukraine. This was also in connection with their brothers being part of the Ukraine armed forces.
 
References
Russia-Ukraine updates: Ukraine resumes operations at 3 ports for grain shipment,” 
Deutsche Welle, 27 July 2022
Every week we strengthen Ukraine, get closer to the European Union, provide forces to confront Russia - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 27 July 2022
Ukraine continues to work on a plan to increase exports of organic products to $1 billion,” minagro.gov.ua, 27 July 2022
Ukraine parliament committee supports Kostin as candidate for prosecutor general,” Ukrinform, 27 July 2022
Uglegorsk thermal power plant liberated from Ukrainian army units — LPR People's Militia,” TASS, 27 July 2022
Russian, LPR, DPR forces gain control over DPR’s Novoluganskoye,” TASS, 27 July 2022
Turkey says Sweden and Finland not fulfilling NATO deal,” Deutsche Welle, 27 July 2022
“​Germany Will Provide an IRIS-T System Intended for Another Country to Ukraine Instead,” en.defence-ua, 27 July 2022
Prime Minister of Ukraine and Vice Prime Minister of Slovenia discussed the development of bilateral cooperation,” kmu.gov.ua, 27 July 2022
Serious rationing of energy possible this winter, warns IEA chief,” BBC, 27 July 2022
Band Balaklava Blues raises 500,000 Canadian dollars for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 27 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GERMANY
Germany passes law on the protection of whistleblowers
On 27 July, the Cabinet approved a draft bill that will give more protection and security to whistleblowers. Even though the EU had given the whistle-blower directive last year, the government could not agree on a deal till now. As per the law, companies with over 50 but less than 250 employees will have to set up an internal reporting mechanism and can collaborate with other companies to facilitate the same. To receive protection from dismissals, warnings, disciplinary measures, discrimination, bullying or reputational damage, whistleblowers will need to either contact their respective internal reporting systems or the federal and state government offices. However, civil society organizations have criticized the law as insufficient. (“German Cabinet approves draft legislation to protect whistleblowers,” Deutsche Welle, 27 July 2022

SWEDEN
Sweden refuses to return Polish historic document
On 27 July, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde said that they will not be returning Laski’s statutes to Poland. Published in 1506, and currently, in the collection of the Uppsala University in Sweden, this document is considered by Poland to be the first codification of Polish law. The right-wing Sweden Democrats had said that Sweden should return the ‘looted’ parchment as a sign of goodwill toward Poland, for accepting Sweden’s NATO bid. However, Linde from the Social Democrats disagreed and said that “spoils of war from the 17th century are legitimate conquests according to the international law of the time.” (Wilhelmine Preussen, “Sweden dismisses move to return ‘spoils of war’ to Poland,” POLITICO, 27 July)

THE UK
Lords subcommittee advocates grace periods to the Northern Island Protocol be made permanent
On 27 July, a House of Lords committee suggested that the grace periods to the Northern Ireland Protocol be made permanent. The protocol which was agreed upon by Boris Johnson and subsequently ratified by the parliament, is for the creation of a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The Lords subcommittee has been hearing evidence from politicians and businesses about how the protocol will affect them. Reportedly, they will begin the scrutiny of the bill from September 2022. Their advocacy for grace periods indicates that the deal is not being implemented completely. (John Campbell, “NI Protocol: Grace periods should be permanent, says Lords committee,” BBC, 27 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Phones of top EU Officials hacked by Pegasus spyware
On 27 July, Euronews reported that according to the evidence that has been found, some EU officials’ phones were hacked by the Pegasus spyware. In a letter to European member of parliament Sophie in ’t Veld, EU Justice Commissioner, Didier Reynders said that in 2021, Apple had alerted him about his phone being potentially hacked by Pegasus. Developed by an Israeli surveillance firm, the NSO Group, Pegasus was used in 2020 and 2021 to gain information from human rights activists, politicians, lawyers, journalists, and faith groups. However, NSO claims that Pegasus has been sold only to government agencies to target criminals and terrorists. (“Top EU officials hacked by Israeli Pegasus spyware,” Euronews, 27 July 2022)

Cities in Europe growing denser
On 27 July, European Commission reported on a new study that indicates that cities in Europe were getting increasingly dense, due to high immigration rates and lesser availability of land for housing. Conducted by the EU-funded connecting and clearing house, the project investigated the trends in population density of around 330 European cities between 2006 and 2018. According to the first author of the study, Chiara Cortinovis, the study also provides hypotheses about how the changes in population trends have impacts on urban development. (“Europe shifts to more densely populated cities,” European Commission, 27 July 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Europe’s Mars rover to be prepared for the Moon
On 28 July, a BBC report spoke about how a rover assembled by the UK and meant for Mars, will now be redesigned to be sent to the moon instead. This is part of an agreement between the US and the UK. NASA’s Perseverance rover is currently drilling rocks in a large crater on Mars. According to the original plan, these rocks, stored in titanium tubes were supposed to be brought to the rocket by the UK rover from wherever Perseverance had dropped it. However, now that NASA is confident that Perseverance will function long enough to carry out the entire operation by itself, European Space Agency has suggested that they repurpose their rover to a bigger one to carry cargo and payloads to the moon. (Jonathan Amos, “UK Mars rover will have to aim for the Moon,” BBC, 27 July 2022


27 July 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #264

War in Ukraine: Day 153 | Value of Russian ruble falls

Macron starts his three days west African nation tour with Cameroon; Orban's advisor quits over his racist speech; Energy deals signed by Riyad and Athens to build data cable

Photo : Eurostat/BBC


War in Ukraine: Day 153
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
 
War on the Ground
On 25 July, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Europe to retaliate against Russia’s “gas war” by increasing the sanctions. He stated: "The gas blackmail of Europe, which only gets worse every month, is needed by a terrorist state to make the life of every European worse." He further claimed that Russia deliberately intended to reduce the flow to make it hard for Europe to cope with the coming winter. 
 
On 26 July, Ukraine’s southern military operational command reported that Russian forces launched several missile attacks on the Black Sea coast near the southern port city of Odesa and in Mykolaiv. The mayor of Mykolaiv, Oleksandr Sienkevych, claimed that the city’s boiler facility had been damaged. Kim also reported that Aircraft were used to launch cruise missiles targeting port and railway infrastructure. 
 
On the same day, the gas transmission system operator of Ukraine stated that Russian gas firm Gazprom has increased pressure on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline which carries gas to Europe without prior caution. The operator stated: "Failing to inform the operator in a timely manner carries potential risks to the normal operation of the pipeline." 
 
Also on 26 July, the Chairman of the International Churchill Society, Laurence Geller conferred president Zelenskyy the Winston Churchill Leadership Award. Geller stated that he admires Zelenskyy’s devotion to the fundamental principles of democracy and persistence in defending his country which helps Europe to understand itself. Zelenskyy in response said that he dedicated the award to the Ukrainian people. He also urged for the continuation of modern and effective weapons to Ukraine in considerable quantities by stating: “The democracies of the world are capable of stopping any tyranny. We are capable of stopping any evil that threatens our freedom. Only the joint leadership of the entire free world can be enough for this.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

 On 26 July, the deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region in Ukraine, Kirill Stremousov stated that a referendum on joining Russia will be held despite Kyiv’s attempts to stop it.  He further stated: "After the referendum takes place, we will become [part of] the Russian Federation, it will be another history, another country." Sremousov also reported that the referendum will be held with the Zaporizhzhia region on the same day and that the preparations for it are underway.  
 
Also on 26 July, Russia’s defence ministry reported that more than 40 foreign mercenaries, most of whom were Polish citizens, were killed by a missile strike in Donbas. The high-precision missile strike hit a temporary deployment of Ukraine’s International Legion units in Konstantinovka. The defence ministry’s data reveals that as of 17 June, 6,956 foreign mercenaries from 64 countries have arrived in Ukraine to fight for the country. 
 
On 26 July, Russian gas operator Gazprom announced plans to reduce the supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline to 20 per cent of its capacity and will not be exceeding 33 million cubic meters a day. The move comes after the announcement that another Siemens gas turbine engine at the Portovaya compressor station will be halted for regular maintenance. 
 
On 26 July, the ruble's value decreased relative to the international currencies. According to statistics from the Moscow Exchange, the dollar increased to the mark of 60 rubles and the euro to 61 rubles. At the end of June, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the strengthening of the currency was causing the Russian budget to lose billions of dollars.  By July 19, the specifics of the updated budget rule were revealed. The ministry advises focusing on a cut-off price of USD 60 per barrel and setting output at 9.5 million barrels per day for calculating basic revenues from the oil and gas business.
 

 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

The EU member states have added an exemption clause for some countries, where the agreement will be invoked as a mandate if supplies reach alarmingly low levels. According to the new clause, some countries which are not connected to the EU’s gas pipeline and are heavily dependent on Russia like Ireland, Malta, and Cyprus will be exempt from this mandatory gas reduction. The Baltic States are also exempt from meeting the compulsory targets as they are heavily reliant on gas for their electricity production. According to the decision, countries will also ask for an exemption if they are dependent on gas for critical industries, if their consumption has gone up by eight per cent or if they have exceeded their storage filling targets.
 
On 26 July, the UK government sanctioned two leaders from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republics (LPR) and have frozen their assets. DPR prime minister Vitaly Khotsenko and LPR first deputy chairman Vladislav Kuznetsov have been banned from entering the UK. Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss said that UK will keep imposing similar sanctions on people who are legitimizing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
 
On the same day, as a part of his three-leg tour of Africa, France’s president Emmanuel Macron visited Cameroon. He disputed the claims that the West is to blame for the food crisis in Africa. Macron said that like energy, Russia was also using food as a “weapon of war.” He also mentioned that given the current situation, France will help Africa in producing more food for their own use and to reduce their dependency.
 
On 25 July, Slovakia’s defence minister Jaroslav Nad announced that they are considering donating their Soviet-era MiG fleet of warplanes to Ukraine. He mentioned that no concrete decision has been taken yet, but they are “ready to discuss that later on,” after their fleets are grounded. Slovakia has deals with the Czech Republic and Poland to assist in monitoring Slovak airspace, from the beginning of September. If discussions with their allies are fruitful, this will be the fourth variety of heavy weapons that Slovakia has donated to Ukraine. Till now, its donations include Soviet-era S-300 air defence system, military helicopters and thousands of Grad multiple-rocket launcher rockets.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 26 July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning about an impending global recession. In an update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that due to the war in Ukraine and its resultant fallouts, the economies of the US, China, and Europe will slow down more sharply than projected. This might lead to the weakest world economy since 1970. In the new forecast, the IMF says that output will fall to 3.2 per cent from the 6.1 per cent as had been predicted last year. Moreover, prices are expected to rise 6.5 per cent in rich economies and 9.5 per cent in emerging and developing economies. In a blog post accompanying the report, the IMF chief, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the outlook of the global economy is “increasingly gloomy.”
 
Also on the same day, Ukraine’s National Bank Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko said that Ukraine has requested the IMF for a USD 15-20 billion loan, and are in consultation about the same. He hoped that the loan will be granted through a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) or an Extended Fund Facility (EFF), over the course of two or three years.
 
Guatemala’s president Alejandro Giammattei became the first Latin American leader to visit Ukraine, since Russia’s invasion in February. He met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv and expressed his solidarity with the people of Ukraine. Giammattei also reiterated that Guatemala has been against this conflict from the very beginning and as long as human lives are lost they will not silence their voices.
 
On 26 July, Uganda received Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, as a part of his Africa tour. President Yoweri Museveni conducted a closed-door meeting with Lavrov.  After the meeting, Museveni thanked Russia for supporting the anti-colonial movement for the last 100 years. According to him, there were no reasons to criticize as he observed to have not committed any mistake.

 

References
Jay Beecher, “Kyiv says Russian Strikes Pummeling Ukraine’s Black Sea Coast,” Kyiv Post, 26 July 2022 
Zelensky Urges Europe to Boost Russia Sanctions Over ‘Gas War’,” Kyiv Post, 26 July 2022
The democracies of the world are capable of stopping any tyranny - speech by the President of “Ukraine during the awarding of the Winston Churchill Leadership Award,” presidentofZelenskyy, 26 July 2022
Ukraine says Russia increased gas pipeline pressure without prior notice,” Reuters, 26 July 2022
Ukraine war: Russia waging gas war with Nord Stream 1 cuts - Zelensky,” BBC, 26 July 2022
ussia to Exit International Space Station ‘After 2024,’ Space Chief Confirms,” The Moscow Times, 26 July 2022
Kherson Region vows to hold referendum regardless of Kiev's intimidation,” TASS, 26 July 2022
Polish mercenaries killed by Russian missile strike – Moscow,” TASS, 26 July 2022
Polish mercenaries killed by Russian missile strike – Moscow,” rt.com26 July 2022
Gazprom will reduce supplies via Nord Stream,” lenta.ru, 26 July 2022
Michael Race, “EU allows get-out clause in Russian gas cut deal,” BBC, 26 July 2022
Ukraine war: UK sanctions leaders of Ukraine breakaway regions,” BBC, 26 July 2022
Amindeh Blaise Atabong, “Macron, in Cameroon, says food is Russian weapon of war,” Reuters, 26 July 2022
“Slovakia may consider giving Ukraine Russian-built warplanes,” AP News, 25 July 2022
The I.M.F. warns that a global recession could soon be at hand,” The New York Times, 26 July 2022
Ukraine expects to get up to $20B in loan from IMF, says NBU governor,” Ukrinform, 27 July 2022
Russian foreign minister arrives in Uganda as part of Africa tour,” Anadolu Agency, 26 July 2022
Guatemala’s president visits Ukraine, expresses solidarity,” AP News, 26 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

CROATIA
A new bridge was unveiled that connects two parts of Croatia
On 26 July, Croatia officially inaugurated the Peljesac Bridge which connects the two divided parts of Croatia. Both parts were divided by a stretch of Adriatic sea which was controlled by Bosnia. The two-kilometer bridge cost around EUR 526 million in the EU funded by EUR 357 million. The China Road and bridge cooperation won the international bid for the construction of the bridge in 2018. The people of Dubrovnik feel connected to Croatia for the first time since Yugoslavia broke up. The official opening ceremony will have a speech from Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenkovic and a video message from Chinese prime minister Li Keqiang. The bridge will be a huge boost to the tourism industry of Croatia, which is the key to the country's economy. (“Croatia opens Peljesac bridge, bypassing Bosnia to ease Dubrovnik access,” Deutsche Welle, 26 July 2022)

FRANCE
Macron tours West Africa to form friendly ties
On 26 July, France's President Emmanuel Macron visited Cameroon which kicked off his three-country west African tour. He will visit Benin and the responsibilities of the colonial power through an investigation. Cameroon's politicians wanted Macron to address the crimes committed by the colonial power during its stay in the country As reparation, France returned historians that were stolen to Benin in 2021. Macron also discussed counter-terrorism and security cooperation in Western Africa's Chad Basin with his Cameroonian counterpart, Paul Biya. France promised it will aid Africa in its time of food crisis that is present Guinea-Bissau on 27 July 2022. He invited historians from France and Cameroon to look into Paris' archives of the colonial past. He wanted to establish now. ("Macron in Cameroon offers look at past, help for future," Deutsche Welle, 26 July 2022)

HUNGARY
Orban's racist speech incites resignation from his advisor
On 27 July, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban's advisor Zsuzsa Hegedus handed over her resignation letter due to Orban's racist comments in his speech in Romania. She called his speech a pure Nazi text In the speech. Orban said that European people should be free to mix but mingling with non-European people will create a mixed-race world. He also said that they don't want more mixed races. Hegedus compared Orban to Joseph Goebbels who was in charge of propaganda under Adolf Hitler. Orban faced a lot of criticism for his speech and also his anti-migration sentiments. ("Hungary PM Viktor Orban adviser Hegedus resigns over 'pure Nazi' speech," BBC, 27 July 2022)

THE UK
Water companies prepare plans for possible drought in the UK
On 26 July, the UK is being cautious about their water supplies amidst concerns of drought due to heatwaves. The UK is imposing early phases of drought plans following record-breaking temperatures. The plan does not include regulation of water thus far but includes management of water levels and artificial maintenance of rivers. Assistance to farmers in areas facing prolonged dry weather will be given. The UK's water companies are preparing measures for potential drought in the country. ("Britain begins drought planning after record heatwave," Reuters, 26 July, 2022)

REGIONAL
Firefighters battle wildfire spread across Germany and the Czech Republic
On 25 July, wildfires erupted in East Germany and the neighbouring Czech Republic. Hundreds of firefighters joined the wildfires from spreading. The fire spread across bone-dry pine forest which held buried world war II ammunition. The large fire destroyed 850 hectares of area and continues to spread quickly due to gusty winds. Several firefighters have been injured and many more are fighting to prevent the further spreading of the fire. Firefighters are cautious not to access the area of ammunition in the fear of an explosion. Countries such as Poland, Slovakia, Germany and Italy are providing special firefighting aircraft and helicopters to douse the wildfire in the Czech Republic. People are being evacuated from the towns and villages near the wildfire. (“Hundreds of firefighters battle blazes in Germany and Czech Republic,” Euronews, 26 July 2022)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Freya, the sea walrus sighted in Oslo
On 26 July, the young female sea walrus named Freya was spotted in Oslo resting on boats. The 600 kilograms marine mammal was first spotted in 2019 in northern Norway. She was subsequently spotted in the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden over the years. According to the World Wildlife Fund, she has been travelling south of the Arctic due to melting snowcaps. Climate change caused the walrus to migrate to another location in the summer. People were cautioned to stay away from the animal so as not to get harmed by it. (Alyss Davies, “Freya the 600kg walrus causes a stir in Norway,” BBC, 26 July 2022)

SPACE
Russia to withdraw from the ISS project 
On 26 July, the newly appointed Roscosmos chief Yury Borisov announced that Russia will be withdrawing from the International Space Station (ISS) “after 2024” and building its own orbiting station. He further mentioned that the agency will also provide space services regarding navigation, communication, and data transmission. The project is viewed as one of the last standing cooperation in space between the US and Russia. Although the withdrawal was scheduled to happen in the future, with the Ukraine war, the pullout has been fastened. According to US President Joe Biden: "We estimate that we’ll cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports. That will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military. It’ll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program." (“Russia signals space station pullout; NASA says it's not official yet," Reuters, 26 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Saudi Arabia and Greece agree to build data cable to share green energy
On 26 July, Saudi Arabia's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to a deal to lay an undersea data cable with Greece during his visit to Athens. Greece and Saudi Arabia agreed to build a data cable that will connect Europe with Asia. The East to Med data corridor will be used for supplying cheaper and greener energy to Europe. Mohammed's visit to Athens was the first to an EU member nation since the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The linkage with Saudi's electricity grid will provide Greece and southwest European nations with cheaper renewable energy through Athens. Both countries also signed bilateral agreements relating to energy, military, and economic cooperation. Saudi Arabia initially denied the request of the US and EU on increasing its output since it followed the benchmark set by OPEC. ("Greece, Saudi Arabia seal deal on data cable, discuss power grid link," Reuters, 27 July, 2022)

 

 


26 July 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #263

War in Ukraine: Day 152 | Sergei Lavrov in Africa | Kazakhstan to increase its defense expenditure

Photo : REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko


War in Ukraine: Day 152
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the ground
On 25 July, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s forces are reclaiming territory under Russia’s control in Kherson. “Step by step” progress was being made by the forces to encircle Russia’s troops in the region.

Ukraine’s deputy minister of infrastructure, Yuriy Vaskov, reported that under the Istanbul agreement, the shipment of grains from Ukraine will begin from the Chornomorsk port, followed by Odesa and then Pivdennyi. Vaskov also mentioned that Ukraine will be ready to export soon. A deputy UN spokesperson, Farhan Haq also reiterated that all parties involved in the deal have “reconfirmed their commitment,” and that the Joint Coordination Centre will be coordinating the procedure.

Missile attacks have been reported in Chuhuiv in Kharkiv and explosions were also heard in Mykolaiv. While no casualties have been reported, around five people have been injured. Russia’s forces also opened fire in Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region with multiple launch rocket systems. Moreover, three districts in the Dnipropetrovsk region were also struck by close to 40 rockets.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 25 July, Russia’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said that the strike on Odesa port was to target the grain shipments under the Istanbul accords. He further clarified that the strike was meant only to target the military infrastructure around the port. Since Russia’s forces only struck a ship repair plant and a depot of US-supplied Harpoon missiles, it will not be affecting the start of the shipment process.

On the same day, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin said that they have found that over 200 members of Ukraine’s military were involved in “crimes against the peace and security of mankind.” He also said that charges have been filed against 92 commanders and subordinates in Ukraine, while 96 are currently on the wanted list.

On 25 July, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov who was visiting Africa, met Congo’s foreign minister. Post the meeting, he said that Europe was sacrificing its own interests by trying to “submit to the dictates of the United States.” He was speaking in the context of a comment made by Poland’s president Andrzej Duda, about how Russia “must lose the war” against Ukraine. He also reiterated Peskov’s statement about how the strikes on the Odesa port do not contradict the recently signed Istanbul agreement regarding grain shipments from Ukraine. 

On 24 July, the head of the Zaporizhzhya region military-civilian administration, Yevgeny Balitsjy informed that two more centers will be opened to receive applications for Russian citizenship. The centers will be in Melitopol and Berdyansk. Balitsjy said that this was due to increased demand in the region for Russian citizenship.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 25 July, UK’s outgoing prime minister Boris Johnson joined Ukraine’s troop's training in Scotland. He participated in a training exercise to learn how to throw grenades, shoot assault rifles, and use top-of-the-range rocket launchers. 

The UK will be hosting the upcoming edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. This comes after the organization decided that it cannot be held in Ukraine, due to the ongoing war-time conditions.

After an executive order by the European Union, Lithuania has lifted its rail transit ban of Russian goods to the Kaliningrad exclave. As per EU sanctions, transport by road is still affected, but 60 wagons of cement will be taken to the territory soon.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war 

On 24 July, The Wall Street Journal reported that Kazakhstan will increase its defense spending and seek closer bilateral ties with China and NATO countries. This is amid fears of Russian aggression and geopolitical ambitions spilling over into Kazakhstan. An additional USD 918 million will be allocated to the defence budget.

On 25 July, Taiwan started its largest annual military exercise, consisting of trench warfare and shoulder-launched Stinger missiles. The exercise was simulated to be against Chinese attacks. In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan’s increased military preparedness can be in apprehension of a similar Chinese attack.
 
The Human Rights Watch has said that Russia’s forces in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions have tortured, unlawfully detained, and forcibly disappeared civilians. The organization reported on 42 such cases and said that the objective of these was to either obtain information or instill fear in the people to accept Russia’s occupation.
 
The World Food Programme (WFP) said that they were optimistic about grain export as a part of the UN-brokered deal between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. However, they warned that the export of grains alone will not be enough to mitigate the global food crisis, even if its implementation is smooth and immediate.

References
Ramsha Afridi, “Ukraine’s War: Kyiv’s Forces Advance on Occupied Kherson, says Zelensky,” Kyiv Post, 25 July 2022
Resumption of Ukraine’s grain exports to begin from Chornomorsk port,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2022
Russians launch missile attack on Chuhuiv, casualties reported,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2022
Enemy opens fire on outskirts of Kramatorsk with MLRS,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2022
Russian troops shell three districts of Dnipropetrovsk region. Child injured,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2022
Russians again strike Mykolayiv and Kharkiv cities,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2022
Pavel Polityuk, Max Hunder, Michelle Nichols, “First Ukraine Black Sea grain shipments could move in days - U.N., Ukraine,” Reuters, 25 July 2022
Strike at Odessa port’s military sites to have no impact on grain shipments, Kremlin says,” TASS, 25 July 2022
Two more centers to be opened in Zaporozhye Region to file for Russian citizenship,” TASS, 24 July 2022
Lavrov accused Europe of indulging the United States to its own detriment.” Lenta.ru, 25 July 2022
Lavrov denied the violation of agreements on the export of grain,” Lenta.ru, 25 July 2022
Susie Blann, “Russia says it wants to end Ukraine’s `unacceptable regime’,” AP News, 25 July 2022
Russia accuses Ukrainian troops of war crimes,” RT, 25 July 2022
Jay Beecher, “British PM Joins Ukrainian Soldiers Training in Scotland,” Kyiv Post, 25 July 2022
UK to host next year's Eurovision Song Contest,” BBC, 25 July 2022
Kaliningrad row: Lithuania lifts rail restrictions for Russian exclave,” BBC, 24 July 2022
Evan Gershkovich, “Putin’s Unexpected Challenge: Snubs From His Central Asian Allies,” The Wall Street Journal, 24 July 2022
Maytaal Angel, “U.N. World Food Programme optimistic on Ukraine grain export deal,” Reuters, 25 July 2022
Ukraine: Torture, Disappearances in Occupied South,” Human Rights Watch, 22 July 2022
Taiwan stages Chinese invasion war games with Ukraine in mind,” Channel News Asia, 25 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Macron to visit three countries in Africa
On 25 July, France’s president Emmanuel Macron began his three-nation tour of western African states to revive the country’s relationship with the continent.  Macron will be visiting Cameroon, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau to discuss food and regional security. The tour is said to “show the commitment of the president in the process of renewing the relationship with the African continent.”  The first country Macron will be visiting is Cameroon which has been driven by ethnic violence and insurgencies. The next day Macron will be visiting Benin whose democracy has been eroded under president Patrice Talon. Macron will be ending his tour in Guinea-Bissau which is also in political crisis. (“Macron embarks on African visit to 'renew relationship' with continent,” France24, 25 July 2022)
 
GERMANY
The young population declines to record low
On 25 July, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Destatis stated that the proportion of the young population aged 15-24 has reached its lowest since the beginning of current records in 1950. The number of young people in Germany has been declining since 2005, except for the year 2015. Regarding the demographic landscape, youngsters in the city-state of Bremen constitute 11 per cent of the population, and in the eastern state of Brandenburg eight per cent. (“Germany: Number of young people falls to record low,” Deutsche Welle, 25 July 2022)
 
SWITZERLAND
Freezing point in regards to altitude increases
On 25 July, the meteorological department of Switzerland, MeteoSwiss stated that the freezing point of its country is higher than its tallest summits. Weather balloons rose to 5,184 feet before identifying the freezing point. This was about 70 meters higher than the previous record of 5,117 meters measured on 20 July 1995 and also 375 meters above Europe’s highest peak, Mont Blanc located in the French Alps. This occurrence is said to be extremely unusual and is pushing the wild fauna that lives in cold climates to climb further up the mountains until they have nowhere to go to survive. (“Freezing point climbs to record high above Swiss Alpine summits,” The Guardian, 25 July 2022)
 
REGIONAL
EU Approves smallpox vaccine for monkeypox
On 25 July, the European Commission approved the Danish biotech company Bavarian Nordic’s Imnavex vaccine for use against Monkeypox in the EU member states. The Bavarian Nordic vaccine was generally used for protection against smallpox. The company’s chief executive Paul Chaplin said: "The availability of an approved vaccine can significantly improve nations' readiness to fight emerging diseases, but only through investments and structured planning of the biological preparedness."  He added that the vaccine was developed in collaboration with the US government.  (“Monkeypox: EU approves vaccine to combat outbreak,” Deutsche Welle, 25 July 2022)
 
MARITIME
NATO ships dock at Estonia’s ports
On 25 July, two ships of the Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1) arrived in Estonia’s Tallinn port. The Dutch joint support ship and current SNMG1 flagship HNLMS Karel Doorman (A833) and the Portuguese NRP Corte-Real (F332), a Vasco da Gama-class frigate arrived at Old City Harbor.  The Standing NATO Maritime Groups are NATO's two Maritime Immediate Reaction Forces, which are multinational, integrated maritime forces that are permanently available to the military bloc to perform tasks ranging from participating in exercises and operational missions. (“Gallery: Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 ships visit Estonia, News.ERR, 25 July 2022)
 
Insurance for ships exporting Ukrainian wheat
On 25 July, the International Association of Ports and Harbours (IAPH) recognized the international agreement to resume shipments and security of all port workers and seafarers from Ukraine's seaports to be “absolutely guaranteed,” to fulfill the agreement's objectives. Even when exports do resume initially, Lee from S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipates that they will be limited to small, domestic vessels rather than the massive, internationally-owned vessels that typically handle the sector. (“Updated: Security and insurance concerns hang over Ukraine grain export recovery,” Seatrade Maritime News, 25 July 2022)


25 July 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #262

War in Ukraine: Day 150 & 151

Europe's heatwaves move eastwards to Greece; Victor Orban's racist speech; Over 1200 migrants arrive in Italy; Traffic build-up reported in Dover; WHO declares Monkeypox as global public health emergency

Photo : REUTERS/Stringer


War in Ukraine: Day 150 & 151
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 23 July, Russia struck Ukraine's military infrastructure in Odesa port with missiles. The attack followed a day after the signing of the Istanbul agreement which unblocked Ukrainian ships that carried millions of tonnes of grains from the Black Sea port. The Kalibr missiles that were allegedly launched by Russia destroyed military infrastructures and a Ukrainian patrol boat in Odesa port with high precision. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that the attack on Odesa exhibited the credibility of Russia's promises. He also said that it was "spit in the face" of the deal that was made at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul. 
 
On the same day, Ukraine reported that its air defence systems shot down two cruise missiles before two more struck the port of Odesa. In the Eastern Ukraine region of Donetsk, the fighting continued in which two Americans and three people were killed.
 
On 23 July, Zelenskyy in his address spoke about the developments in the Donbas, Kharkiv regions and  the advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces troops in the occupied Kherson region. He reported that Odesa Art Museum was also demolished during the strike. Apart from this Zelenskyy mentioned the discussion that he had with the president of Kazakhstan on projects in the fields of energy, economy, and digitalization. 
 
On the same day, President Zelenskyy met with the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee of the US, Adam Smith. Zelenskyy showed his gratitude to the US for its staunch support of Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also thanked them for the warm welcome that first lady Olena Zelenska received during her visit to the US. Which has provided the latest package of weapons that included HIMARS launcher systems, shells and unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukraine. They also discussed the reconstruction of Ukraine post-war with the Fast Recovery Plan. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 
On 24 July, Moscow confirmed the missile strike in the port of Odesa in the Black sea. Russia's defence ministry denied its claims of Ukraine saying it attacked Ukraine's military infrastructure and arms stockpile and nothing more. They had destroyed a shipyard, a docked warship that belonged to Ukraine, and a warehouse that contained Harpoon anti-ship missiles that were supplied by the US to Kyiv on the Odesa port. They were destroyed by sea-based high-precision Kalibr missiles. Ukraine claimed Russia targeted the grain silos that were there but Moscow refused to accept the accusation.
 
On the same day, an attack from the UAF in Melitopol was repelled by the Russian air defence systems. Ukraine's military had sent attack drones and missiles during the night which was incapacitated by Russian air defence and thus protecting the residents of Melitopol.
 
On 23 July, a seven-member election committee was to be formed in the Kherson region to conduct a referendum that allows the region to accede to Russia. On 22 July 2022, the head of the Kherson Region's military-civilian administration placed the decree stating that a seven-member election committee that serves for three years was to be created and the nominations for the same were accepted. The Kherson region will not have the right to express its opinion on the future of the region. Also on the same day, the head of the military-civilian administration of the Zaporizhzhia region signed a decree on the creation of an election committee to hold a referendum to accede to Russia.
 
On 24 July, Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov after talks with his Egyptian spokesperson stated that Russia was not looking for the removal of western sanctions but urged to fix the food insecurity that the west had created on the global market itself. Even though the west claims that they do not include Russian ships that carry grains in the sanctions, they bar Moscow's ships from admission to foreign ports and restrict the entry of foreign ships in Russian ports. The west has been silent about the grain ship restrictions that increased the global food crisis. He urged the west to free Russian grain exports to ease global hunger. The UN chief Guterres agreed to remove the sanctions placed on Russian grain export if Russia follows through with the deal to unblock exports of grain, food and fertilizers from Ukraine made in Istanbul with
Ukraine. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  
On 23 July, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban urged the US and Russia to hold peace negotiations stating that Ukraine cannot win the war. He also added that the EU needs to restructure its strategies toward Russia as the sanctions are not playing an effective role. Orban stated: "A new strategy is needed which should focus peace talks and drafting a good peace proposal...instead of winning the war." In his speech to Romania, he claimed that the four pillars of the Western strategy on Ukraine were that Ukraine could defeat Russia with NATO weapons, sanctions would weaken and destabilize Russia's government, sanctions would hurt Russia more than Europe, and the rest of the world would unite in support of Europe. However, he mentioned that this strategy is toppling European governments and rising energy prices.
 
On 24 July, the US secretary of state Anthony Blinken condemned Russia’s attack on the port of Odesa amid the grain corridor talks. He further blamed Russia for worsening the food crisis by not abiding by the grain corridor agreements signed with the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine.  He stated: “This attack casts serious doubt on the credibility of Russia’s commitment to yesterday’s deal and undermines the work of the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine to get critical food to world markets.”
 
On 24 July, Siemens Energy AG firm in Canada submitted the documentation on the transportation of turbines for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Gazprom. The documents also stated the exemption of sanctions from the EU and Canada for the turbines.
 
On 23 July, the deputy director of the European Commission’s energy department, Matthew Baldwin stated that the EU plans to acquire gas supplies from Nigeria in response to the anticipated supply cuts from Russia. During his visit to Abuja, the minister of petroleum resources, Timipre Sylva mentioned that the federal government is improving its security in the Niger Delta and is planning to reopen the Trans Niger pipeline in September which would potentially provide more gas to Europe. 
 
On 24 July, the defence ministry of Turkey stated that the joint coordination center in Istanbul for the agreed grain corridor is operating successfully to ensure the shipment of grain to global markets. The ministry also mentioned that the first ship from Ukrainian ports is expected to leave soon.   

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 22 July, Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Paris to meet France’s president Emmanuel Macron to discuss the economic, energy and global food security fallouts of the conflict in Ukraine. 
 
On 24 July, bakers in the Philippines are reducing the size of a well-known breakfast bun to deal with greater inflation as the conflict in Ukraine drives up wheat costs and a weaker peso raises the cost of imported edible oil. The bun “pandesal” also known as the poor man’s bread which is preferred by workers and retirees had to be downsized to keep the cost constant. 
 
The supply disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine have also affected Tunisia as it imports 60 per cent of its soft wheat and 66 per cent of its barley from Moscow and Kiev. 
 
On 24 July, the secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Rebeca Grynspan stated that the agreement on the grain corridor may partially ease the sanctions on Russia by reducing the logistical costs. She stated: “There are delivery problems, insurance problems, payment problems, freight problems, and all these things make prices go up. So the main thing I foresee is that these difficulties will ease and transaction prices will come down.”  

 
References
Bohdan Nahaylo, "Breaking: Russia admits missile strike on Odesa port," Kyiv Post, 24 July 2022
"Russian Strikes on Odesa Port Cast Doubt Over Grain Deal," Kyiv Post, 23 July 2022
"Armed Forces of Ukraine advancing step by step in Kherson region – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy," president.gov.ua , 23 July 2022
"President of Ukraine meets with US Congress' House delegation," president.gov.ua, 23 July 2022
"Moscow reveals target of strike on key Ukrainian port," Russian Times, 24 July 2022
"Russian air defense systems in Melitopol repulse attack from Ukrainian military — official," TASS, 24 July 2022
"Kherson Region creates election committee for referendum on joining Russia," TASS, 23 July 2022
"Russia not asking for sanctions removal – Lavrov," Russian Times, 24 July 2022
Orban Calls For U.S.-Russia Talks On Ukraine War; Says Kyiv Can’t Win
Orban Calls For U.S.-Russia Talks On Ukraine War; Says Kyiv Can’t Win,” RadioFreeEurope, 23 July 2022
US accuses Russia of deepening global food crisis – as it happened
US accuses Russia of deepening global food crisis – as it happened,” the Guardian, 24 July 2022
Siemens Energy hands Gazprom documentation for transport of Nord Stream 1 turbine -media
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/siemens-energy-hands-gazprom-documentation-transport-nord-stream-1-turbine-media-2022-07-24/
.U.S. to push Russia to fulfill Ukraine grain deal, says China is stockpiling
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-push-russia-fulfill-ukraine-grain-deal-calls-out-china-stockpiling-2022-07-22/
Turkish defense ministry announces plans of soonest beginning of export of Ukrainian grain,” TASS, 24 July 2022 
Macdonald Dzirutwe, “EU looks to replace gas from Russia with Nigerian supplies,” Reuters, 23 July 2022
France’s Macron hosts close ally Egypt’s al-Sisi in Paris to discuss security and defence ties,” South China Morning Post, 23 July 2022
Ukraine war: Philippine bakeries shrink pandesal also known ‘poor man’s bread’ as inflation bitesSouth China Morning Post, 23 July 2022
Soaring prices and more: Tunisian economy in trouble,” Daily Sabah, 24 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

GREECE
Europe’s heatwaves move eastwards, spreading wildfires to Greece
On 24 July, several active blazes were reported in Greece. Wildfires were reported on the island of Lesbos for two consecutive days and nearby settlements had to be evacuated. In the mainland, blazes were seen in Krestena in the western Peloponnese, and in the forest near Dadia in the north. The Civil Protection Minister Christos Stylianidis, who is coordinating the firefighting efforts said that the difficult terrain and changing wind direction is making it increasingly difficult to deal with the fire. Greece faces wildfires for second consecutive summer. Last year, it had destroyed around 121,000 hectares of forest and bushland in the country. (“Wildfires burn coastal homes, forests in Greece as Europe's heatwave spreads east,” Reuters, 24 July 2022)

HUNGARY
Prime minister Orban accuses Europe of racial mixing
On 23 July, in a keynote address at the Tusvanyos Summer University, Romania, Hungary’s prime minister, Victor Orban made a far-right comment. He said that they do not aspire to be a “mixed race”. Solidifying his position against the mixing of Europeans with non-Europeans, Orban mentioned that according to him, countries where European and non-Europeans mingle were “no longer nations.” He alleged that the EU, the West and the troops rallied by his Fidesz enemy, George Soros were attempting to "force migrants" into Central Europe. However, his speech drew widespread criticism from Hungary’s opposition Momentum party and Romania’s members of parliament. (Shaun Walker, “Viktor Orbán sparks outrage with attack on ‘race mixing’ in Europe,” The Guardian, 24 July 2022)

ITALY
Italy sees the arrival of over 1200 undocumented migrants
On 24 July, it was reported that around 1,200 undocumented migrants arrived at ports in Sicily, Italy. The migrants hailed from Asia, Africa and Middle Eastern nations. In Calabria, 674 people were rescued and five dead bodies were discovered. A navy and mercantile ship, three coast guard patrol boats and a financial police boat carried out the rescue operation. In Lampedusa, 522 people were rescued, even though the island’s immigration center is already well over its 350 people capacity. The rescued migrants hailed from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia. (Matt Murphy, “Italy migrants: Nearly 1,200 arrive by boat in 24 hours,” BBC, 24 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Traffic buildup continues in the port of Dover, amidst the France-UK blame game
On 23 July, a heavy build-up of traffic was reported outside the UK port of Dover. Since Brexit, UK’s custom officials carry out checks at the border, which is leading to the delays, as travellers now have to clear both the UK and French border checks. British foreign minister, Liz Truss accused French authorities for mismanagement and resource crunch at their checkpoints, but French member of Parliament Pierre-Henri Dumont said that the increased delays are occurring due to the post-Brexit increase in border control, for which France is not responsible. (“UK, France trade blame over Dover traffic chaos,” Deutsche Welle, 25 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Monkeypox declared a global public health emergency by WHO
On 23 July, the World Health Organisation declared the ongoing monkeypox outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This is the first time that Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghrebeyesus has made such an announcement despite a lack of consensus among WHO's emergency committee. Since the first cases were recorded in May, the outbreak has spread to 75 countries with over 16,000 cases. The current outbreak is centered in Europe, and the highest number of cases have been recorded in Spain, followed by the UK. (Sonya Angelica Diehn, “Monkeypox: WHO declares outbreak a global public health emergency,” Deutsche Welle, 23 July 2022)

 


23 July 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #261

Italy’s political instability: Three Issues | Heatwaves across Europe: Causes, effects and response

Photo : Paolo Giandotti/Italian Presidential Palace/Reuters/ The Washington Post


EM COMMENT

Italy’s political instability: Three Issues
By Emmanuel Royan

On 21 July, Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi resignation was accepted by president Sergio Mattarella which was rejected earlier. His resignation follows after the withdrawal of support from the coalition party- the Five Star Movement on confidence vote. Followed by the resignation, the leaders of the two right-wing parties that also make up Draghi’s cabinet, Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini of the League party declared that they could no longer cooperate with the 5Star Movement. Upon resignation the Italy will now hold a snap election on 02 October to choose the prime minister, until then the caretaken government will govern Italy.
 
Three issues
First, the complexity in the political system. Italy’s parliament has a bicameral legislature, the Chamber of Deputies, which has 630 members, and the Senate with 315 members. Italians have two votes, one for each house. A total of 37 per cent of the seats in each house will be directly elected using the first-past-the-post method, and 64 per cent will be distributed proportionally. Small parties have a better chance of representation in Italy because it utilizes proportional representation and does not require a minimum percentage of the total vote to win seats. The original intent of the system was to prevent the likelihood of one party or leader acquiring an excessive amount of power. A first-past-the-post component and thresholds of three per cent for individual parties and ten per cent for coalitions were introduced by the electoral law 2018, increasing the incentive for coalition formation. Grand coalitions, or groups of parties from several political spheres that come together after the vote, have governed Italy. Such coalitions frequently struggle to reach a consensus on legislation and frequently result in conflicts that cause governments to fall because the parties involved typically hold extremely divergent viewpoints. As a result, coalition governments are more susceptible to crises and opportunism as junior partners use threats to dissolve the governments and, in some cases, actual implementations to gain greater power or cabinet seats.
 
Second, failure in the technocratic leadership and public discontent. Technocracy’s fundamental premise is that there is only one method to solve any given issue, and experts are the only ones who understand how to do it. This conception does not allow for disagreement or compromise between competing interests and values, which is the core of political parties that are meant to represent the various facets of society. Since 1993, Draghi was the fourth technocrat to serve as the head of government. He succeeds Mario Monti, a former European Commission member who served as prime minister from 2011 to 2013. Before him stood Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, a former governor of the Bank of Italy, and Lamberto Dini, a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund. Italy’s technocratic leadership over the years have neither resolved the economic issues and political instability. The citizens were wary of technocrats as they felt that they did not directly represent them. Due to the discontent among people following two years of technocratic rule, the populist Five Star Movement emerged with a commitment for ‘direct democracy’. This signaled the beginning of several years of ineffective governance and served as a clear warning of rising dissatisfaction among the people with how the Italian democracy was functioning.
 
Third, unreliability of the Five Star Movement party. The Five Star Movement party makes up the largest coalition ally of the government and holds significant votes. The party initially supported Dragi’s EUR 23 billion decree on Economic aid for social welfare and businesses. However, the Five Star Movement declined to vote on the bill and presented Draghi with a nine-point list of demands, which includes a commitment for basic income and minimum wage. After complaining that his party's supporters had been treated disrespectfully and ignored by other coalition parties. Such claims and unreliability of the party made other coalition parties to not work with the Movement anymore, therefore leading to the collapse.


Heatwaves across Europe: Causes, effects and response
By Rishma Banerjee

On 19 July the UK recorded its highest temperatures ever, crossing 40 degrees Celsius. Parts of France, Spain, and Portugal too recorded high temperatures between 42 and 46 degrees. While the heatwave had started in southern and western Europe, it is moving eastwards. Over the last few days, Netherlands, Poland, Italy, and Slovenia, authorities have issued heat warnings. This is not the first time in the year that Europe is experiencing heat waves. In May, France registered temperatures higher than the historic average. In June too, southern part of Europe experienced another heatwave, which spread from Spain to Turkey.
 
Causes 
There are a few factors that are contributing to the recent heatwaves in Europe.
First, this is an indirect result of the average global temperature being up by 1.1 degrees Celsius than in the 19th century. Second, a region of low-pressure air off the coast of Portugal resulted in the heat from North African regions reaching into England and Wales. Third, a connection between the heatwaves and splitting of the jet stream into two has been established. Because of the split, an area of weak winds results in the build-up of heat between the two branches. Fourth, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation which is seen to be adversely affecting the weather in Europe. 
 
Effects
First, the continuing wildfires and droughts. The heatwaves wildfires have erupted in several European countries like Portugal, Spain, France, and Poland. Thousands of people across Europe have been evacuated to temporary shelters. Portugal reported more than 250 blazes over a period of two days, and 650 deaths due to heat-related illnesses. Spain lost 14,000 hectares to fires; an estimated 360 people succumbed to extreme heat. Wildfires have also destroyed over 19,000 hectares of forest in southwestern France. The greater frequency, intensity, and duration of the heat waves have also been linked to the growing incidence of drought in different parts of Europe. The water level in Italy’s longest river, the Po river reached record low levels after no rainfall for more than 200 days. Spain’s reservoirs were at 44.4 percent of their capacity from 65.7 per cent in the last decade.
 
Second, infrastructural incapability. Many European cities are not designed to withstand such high temperatures. They do not have the infrastructure to keep people cool, and that had added to the crisis. European buildings most of which are not equipped with air conditioners also do not have fan fans. They are built to trap heat in order to help residents better withstand the cold. This has caused indoor temperatures to soar during a heat wave. In some places, roads have melted.
 
Third, increase in energy usage. With the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves rising this summer, Europe’s energy requirements have increased at the wrong time, given the sanctions on Russian energy. While Europe has aimed to cut down emissions and to invest heavily in renewables, this shift has also been disrupted by the war in Ukraine and the impending energy crisis.
 
Fourth, worsening public health. High temperatures reduce air circulation and lead to an increase in air pollution. This worsens respiratory issues and increases risks of heatstroke and heat exhaustion. Reportedly more than 600 people have died in Portugal in Spain due to high temperatures.

Response
First, the state responses. Most of the states have declared red alerts due to the extreme heat. The UK called an emergency Cabinet meeting to discuss Britain’s first-ever “Extreme Red” heat warning. Trains and flights functioned at a lower rate due to fears of expanding tracks and melting runways. Free water points and announced emergency provisions for rough sleepers. In France, city councils made museums and other air-conditioned places free of charge, and extended pool opening hours. Over 3,000 firefighters, assisted by rescue forces from Greece, and six ‘water-bomber’ aircraft have also been deployed. In Portugal, more than 1,400 firefighters were in action at 44 fires while in Spain the firefighters were struggling to control the actives blazes too.
 
Second, the regional response. In 2003, an intense heatwave in Europe had killed over 70,000 people. Since then has tries to build capacity, long-term heat action plans have not materialized. While the member states are committed to shift to green energy, the process or rate has not been as swift as necessary. While measures have been discussed in theory, in practice however Europe lacks preparedness.
 
Third, the international response. The World Meteorological Organisation has issued a warning saying that this is a "foretaste of the future." They linked the heatwaves as a direct consequence of the global warming and climate change. According to WMO heatwaves will become more frequent and more severe because of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is the reason the IPCC mandates member states to attempt and cap the global rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees celsius rise.
 
References
Renee Maltezou and Federico Maccioni, “Europe's heatwave reaches Poland, Greece as it moves eastwards, brings wildfires,” Reuters, 22 July 2022
Alison Roberts, Jessica Parker & Guy Hedgecoe, “Heatwave: Wildfires spread across Europe,” BBC, 19 July 2022
Henry Fountain, “Why Europe Is Becoming a Heat Wave Hot Spot”, The New York Times, 18 July 2022
Why is it so effing hot? Europe’s heat wave explained,” POLITICO, 18 July 2022
Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia,” Nature Communications, 04 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 149
By Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 22 July, Ukraine and Russia agreed to sign the deal to allow the export of millions of tonnes of grains that were blockaded at Black Sea ports in the Odesa region. The signing of the UN-backed agreement will take place at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul and will be attended by UN Secretary-General General Antonio Guterres and Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The deal would be critical for global grain security. This deal would loosen up the global food crisis. The deal was agreed upon after Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and UN held a meeting to discuss about the blockade.

On 21 July, more than 230 fire missions were performed by the missile and artillery units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, exterminating 35 Russian soldiers and demolishing a Msta-S self-propelled howitzer, two reconnaissance drones, three armored vehicles and eight vehicles. Ukrainian aircraft made eight strikes on Russia's reserves and positions, with five strikes launched by a bomber and attack aircraft and three by helicopters. The UAF also ambushed five Russian strongholds and two ammunition depots in the Kherson region and also attacked a large number of Russian soldiers in the Mykolaiv region.
 
On the same day, Ukraine's deputy defence minister Volodymr Havrylov visited Scotland to meet the UK Armed Forces minister James Heappey. He also went to observe the training of the sailors of Ukraine's navy with the help of the British Royal Navy. Ukraine's recruits were educated on weapon drills, the operation of machinery on board navy vessels, and advanced damage control methods. They were being trained in the water of Scotland. Over a thousand of the UK's Armed Forces personnel were seen to teach the UAF the tactics and techniques used by them.
  
Also on the same day, the naval forces of the UAF posted on Facebook that three Russian Kalibr operational and tactical missile carriers were on combat duty in the Black Sea. Furthermore, there were five Russian Kalibr operational and tactical missile carriers and two missile cruisers were spotted in the Mediterranean Sea. Six Russian ships and boats still control the maritime lane in the Sea of Azov. It was also noted that Russia violated the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974, by turning off the Automatic Identification System on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov. According to Ukraine's ministry of defence intelligence, Russia had consumed more than 50 per cent of the high-precision weapons that it had from the beginning of the war.

On 22 July, Mariupol-based Ukrainian steel company, Metinvest claims that Russia has been looting USD 600 million worth of steel from plants and ports in Ukraine. Russia was looting thousands of tonnes of steel that were paid for by European customers including in the UK. Russia has been pillaging the company's selling it to internal markets in Africa and Asia. Yuriy Ryzhenkov, chief executive of Metinvest wants to go before international courts to take legal action against Moscow on accounts of thievery. Ge said that his company is contributing to the war by manufacturing bulletproof west and providing steel for underground bunkers and armoured vehicles.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 22 July, Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov promised to deliver pledged food, fertiliser, energy and other commodities to Africa despite being sunk in western sanctions. He denied the west's and Ukraine's claim of Russia purposefully starving Africa. Russia had blockaded 20 million tonnes of grain in Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. The sanctions imposed on Russia denied its ships insurance as well as obstructed foreign vessels from Russian ports. This is in addition to already worse conditions due to the covid pandemic that led to food shortages in Africa. Lavrov said that Russia will fulfil its promise and will provide what is obligated to Africa.
 
Also on 22 July, the leaders of the pro-Russian separatists decided to block Google in the region of Donetsk People's Republic. Luhansk People's Republic blocked Google on the previous day of DPR doing the same. The reason given by DPR leader Denis Pushilin for obstructing Google was that the American giant was endorsing violence against Russians, especially the people of the Donbas region. Pushilin also accused Google of working for the US government. According to Pushilin, the west and Ukraine are trying to build unprecedented pressure on the physical and psychological safety of the people of DPR and are intending to break its people.

On the same day, Russia updated its list of unfriendly nations. Greece, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia were added to the list of foreign states that committed unfriendly acts towards Russia. The list was a counter measure deployed by Russia's president Vladimir Putin to unfriendly actions by other countries by limiting the possibility of hiring Russian workers for its embassies, consulates and representative offices of government agencies. The limitations of Greece, Denmark and Slovakia were 34, 20 and 16 respectively. Slovenia and Croatia were denied hiring employees for their diplomatic missions and consular institutions.
 
Also on 22 July, a referendum on accession to Russia by LPR was decided to be held at 492 polling stations. The creation of the headquarters of the referendum was initiated on 15 July at the meeting of the Public Chamber of the republic. According to the head of LPR, Leonid Pasechnik, the main task before the referendum was to liberate the LPR from Ukraine's army. But on 03 July it was confirmed to be liberated which led to the consideration of the referendum. On 17 July, the election commission of LPR approved the procedure for creating voting and referendum stations.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 21 July, Germany is seen to have relied upon coal as a temporary solution to its energy. It is afraid that coal alone would not be efficient in providing energy for industries and the whole country. Its dependence on Russian gas will leave Berlin facing challenges if the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which carries the Russian gas, will cut off its supply completely. Germany is looking to increase its gas storage from 66 per cent to 80 to 90 per cent before winter. Berlin would have to implement gas rationing to save for the winter. It is planning to expand its LNG imports to secure supplies from countries like Qatar and store them in floating LNG terminals. The coalition government especially the greens are against the usage of nuclear power.
 
On the same day, the EU imposed a new set of sanctions on Russia mainly targeting its gold export. Russia's second-largest export industry after energy has also been financing its invasion of Ukraine. According to Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the gold export ban will not be enough to hurt Russia and its economy. The EU also decided to grant EUR 500 million to boost Ukraine's military aid.
  
Also on 22 July, Poland is getting ready to purchase tanks, howitzers and fighter planes from South Korea as Warsaw looks to increase its defensive capabilities if Russia attacks it. The deal entails 48 FA-50 light combat jets, 180 K2 "Black Panther" tanks and an unknown number of K9 howitzers. The agreement would bolster Poland's armed forces if Russia threatens to attack Warsaw. First howitzers and tanks are scheduled to arrive at the end of this year and planes next year, said the defence minister of Poland. Poland had contributed a large number of weaponry in its aid to Ukraine. The deal is to replace arms that were given to Ukraine.

Also on 22 July, the federal council reacted to the decision taken by the leaders of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) regarding Tiraspol incorporating into Russia. Russia will only consider Transnistria's incorporation only if it abides by the norms of international law. Transnistria plans to gain independence from Moldova by the 2006 referendum. After gaining independence it is planning to become a part of Russia.

Also on 22 July, Italy's ambassador to Ukraine Pier Francesco Zazo met with Kyiv's deputy head of the office of the president, Kyrylo Tymoshenko to discuss the reconstruction of Ukraine's recovered regions that we're affected by the Russian invasion. Tymoshenko presented a Fast Recovery Plan for infrastructures in the regions that were affected by the Russian aggression. The recovery plan includes the restoration of schools, private houses, apartments, hospitals and networks. Ambassador Zazo noted that Italy would help in the implementation of the fast recovery plan.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 21 July, US senators said that the spreading of Russia's influence in Africa has threatened American interests. Senators expressed worries over Russia's use of the mercenary Wagner Group in Africa, especially in Mali which is politically unstable at the present. The group had helped in multiple military coups in the region, giving the stronghold of West Africa to Russia. They have also expanded market influence in Africa ousting the US from getting Africa's rich commodities. Russia had gathered support in Africa opposing western sanctions. The US is afraid of Africa accepting disinformation from Russia and the impacts it brings to fragile and unstable countries.
 
On 22 July, South Africa saw the food crisis worsening in the country, increasing social instability and unrest. People have died of starvation including 12 children in the Eastern Cape. The South African consumer inflation rose to a 13-year high last month with an average household basic food costing around USD 270 per month. The war in Ukraine and the Blockade of grain in the Odesa region have influenced the rise of food prices in South Africa.
 
Also on 22 July, Israel decided to help Ukraine in its war against Russia albeit with caution. Even though Israel also faces security threats, it has reached out to Ukraine to assist. The strategic decision made by Israel is to provide Ukraine with the maximum aid that it can afford. Israel has provided treatment for dozens of people that were brought to their country. Humanitarian aid like delivering medicine, food, fresh water, generator, Israeli doctors were provided to Ukraine
 
References
"Ukrainian forces eliminate 35 invaders, strike five strongholds, two ammunition depots in south," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
"East Ukraine pro-Russians block Google," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
Jay Beecher, "Ukrainian Navy Being Trained in Scotland," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
"Three Russian Kalibr missile carriers on combat duty in Black Sea," Ukrinform, 22 July 2022
"Kyrylo Tymoshenko and the Ambassador of Italy discussed the participation in the recovery of the affected regions of Ukraine," president.gov.ua, 21 July 2022
"Russia taking ‘all measures’ to deliver food to Africa - FM," Russian Times, 22 July 2022
"Russia adds Greece, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia to its unfriendly countries list," TASS, 22 July 2022
"Referendum on LPR joining Russia to be held at 492 polling stations — LPR official," TASS, 22 July 2022
"The Federation Council reacted to the plans of Pridnestrovie to become part of Russia," LENTA.RU, 22 July 2022
Jenny Hill, "Germany scrambles for energy with no faith in Russian has," BBC, 21 July 2022
Simon Jack, "Russia 'looting' steel bound for Europe and UK, says Metinvest boss," BBC,  22 July 2022
"EU slaps Russia with more sanctions over Ukraine war," euronews, 21 July 2022
Daniel Boffey and Ruth Michaelson, "Deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports in Black Sea ‘to be signed on Friday’," the Guardian, 22 July 2022
"Poland to buy South Korean tanks and combat planes," Deutsche Welle, 23 July 2022
Karoun Demirjian, "Russia’s moves in Africa problematic for U.S. interests, general agrees," Washington Post, 21 July 2022
"Fears of unrest as food prices soar in South Africa," africanews, 22 July 2022
"Israel provides aid to Ukraine, but military – with caution – ambassador," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

BELGIUM
Belgium celebrates National Day
On 21 July, Belgium celebrated its national day marking 192 years since independence.  It became independent in 1830 after the end of Belgium Revolution, where the National Congress made Belgium a kingdom. The celebration for 2022 will be special since it was not celebrated for past two years in the Pandemic. On the day, the royal family attended the National Day ceremony that included military and civilian parade in the Place des Palais. It also marked the remembrance of the historic soldiers who have helped the country. (Lauren Walker and Maïthé Chini, “What does Belgium celebrate on its National Day, and how?,” Brussels Times, 21 July 2022)

Belgium sings deal with French energy company to extend the operation of nuclear reactors
On 22 July, the Belgium government signed a deal with Engie which is a French energy company to prolong the functioning of the nuclear reactors by 10 years. The decision comes in the background of the Ukraine war and Europe’s growing energy dependency. With regards to the reactors, Doel 4 and Tihange 3 were scheduled to be closed down by 2025 for a technical examination, the reactors account for half of electricity generation for Belgium. With the government opting to phase out from the nuclear energy by 2025, the Ukraine war has trickled the decision. (“Belgium reaches tentative deal with Engie on extending nuclear reactors,” POLITICO, 21 July 2022)

THE UK
UK navy tracks down two Russian submarines in the Norwegian coast
On 22 July, the UK Royal Navy reported on spotting two Russian submarines in the north west of Bergen, Norway using UK submarine hunter HMS Portland. It found the vessels to be moving towards south in the underwater along the Norwegian coast. According to the Navy spokesperson, the navy used Type 23 frigate along with a Merlin helicopter which holds cutting-edge sonars, sensors and torpedoes to track down submarines. (Jo Couzens, “Royal Navy tracks two Russian submarines in North Sea,” BBC, 22 July 2022)

BREXIT
EU launches fresh legal charges against UK’s proposal to alter Northern Ireland Protocol; UK’s Brexit settlement amount increased due to inflation
On 23 June, the EU announced the launch of additional legal suit on the UK on its proposal to change the Brexit rules in Northern Ireland. UK‘s proposal to alter the agreed provisions in the Protocol is yet to be passed by the lords, until then the UK will have to face the legal proceedings filed by the EU. According to the EU, it has accused the UK for not sharing the trade information relating to trade check posts and goods exiting Northern Ireland. In response, the UK spokesperson said that it was frustrating to see the EU filing the case on the exit of goods which is of no risk and commented that the legal dispute will not help in resolving the Brexit problem. Treasury minister Simon Clarke raised concerns saying the outstanding payment to the EU by the UK upon Brexit has risen by GBP 7.5 billion due to inflation. Part of Brexit divorce bill, the UK agreed to pay back as part of financial settlement. With the inflation on peak, the repayment amount had increased. (“EU launches fresh legal action over Northern Ireland border rules,” BBC, 22 July 2022; “Brexit: UK's divorce bill from EU could rise to £42.5bn,” BBC, 22 July 2022)


22 July 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #260

Russia’s threat to cut off energy supplies to Europe | War in Ukraine: Day 148

Italy’s prime minister resigns; European Central Bank hikes interest rate; Lithuania and Romania ratifies Sweden and Finland’s NATO protocol; Turkey denies responsibility for Iraq attack

Photo : The Washington Post


Russia’s threat to cut off energy supplies to Europe: Three implications
By Sai Pranav

On 20 July, the European Commission called for mandatory gas demand reduction from 01 August 2022 to 31 March 2023 up to 15 per cent for all the member nations to save energy for the upcoming winter. The EU fears the permanent disruption of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after its 10-day annual maintenance by Russia. Since the winter would pose difficulty in living, increasing the demand for more energy causing energy shortage and price rise. Therefore, the EU aims to have an 80 per cent capacity of energy in underground gas storage by 01 November 2022 to battle through the winter without impacting the price levels. 
 
Supply disruption by Russia
The EU accused Russia's president Vladimir Putin for weaponizing gas in response to the sanctions. Although Putin denied the claims stating Russia will deliver gas as promised, Gazprom reduced the supply to 40 per cent capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. According to Putin, there might be a possible reduction in supply via Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to the maintenance of other equipment. Russia has blamed Canada for not returning the turbine that was sent by the German company, Siemens Energy for repairs. Canada refused to return the turbine as it saw as a violation of its sanctions on Russia. But due to persuasion from Germany, they returned the turbine to Siemens Energy which in turn gave it to Gazprom, a Russian gas company. Followed by the row of European countries not paying in Russian roubles for gas and as a counter measure to the sanctions, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Lithuania have been cut off from energy supplies by Russia.
 
Three Implications
First, Europe’s energy problem. From the start of Ukraine war on 24 February 2022, the energy prices have on the rise. Europe’s existing energy crisis has furthered due to the war and from the dual effect of the sanctions put on Russia. It has resulted in increased demand for more energies from the industries and household and this will aggravate with climate conditions leading to price hike. The EU has taken measure such as incentivizing for less energy consumption and switching for other forms of energy. But the taken steps have low outcomes resulting in supply shortage. Poor condition of the existing pipelines and limited supplies to Austria and southeastern Europe from Ukraine’s pipeline are also other reasons for the dualling energy crisis. Apart from this, EU member states such as Germany, Poland and Austria shifting towards their coal mines as a short-term solution to the energy crisis can be a short-term solution but lead to environmental risk.
 
Second, energy combined economic problem. The surging energy prices are predicted to impact EU's industrial sectors and have a longer effect on its economic growth. Inflation and the cost-of-living crisis have decreased consumer growth and purchasing power. Industries such as chemicals, fertilizers and steel have been negatively impacted due to supply disruption in gas. Such industries use gas as an energy source and a raw material as well. With investments into renewable energies falling short to meet the energy demands and increased energy imports from Middle-East, the stress on economy is set to build more along with the energy crisis.
 
Third, search for alternatives. The EU is looking for other ways to replace Russian gas imports to fulfil its energy needs. The bloc is eyeing the middle east for an alternative. Germany had already signed a deal with Qatar to import LNG and hydrogen fuel from Doha, which is the largest LNG exporter. Construction of LNG floating terminals to store the energy from places like the US or Qatar and transiting it towards Norway, Algeria and North African countries are also other methods by the EU to alternate the oil shortage.
 
References
Philip Oltermann, "Germany worries about gas rationing as supply from Russia halted," The Guardian, 19 July 2022
America Hernandez, "Emergency gas rationing for EU countries, under crisis plan," POLITICO, 18 July 2022
"Exclusive: Russia likely to restart gas exports from Nord Stream 1 on schedule - Russian sources," Reuters, 20 July 2022
Kate Abnett and Nina Chestney, "Europe races to cut Russian gas usage amid new Putin warning," Reuters, 20 July 2022
"EU urges countries to reduce gas demand by 15% amid threat of Russian cuts," Deutsche Welle, 20 July 2022
"Save Gas for a Safe Winter: Commission proposes gas demand reduction plan to prepare EU for supply cuts," ec.europa.eu," 20 July 2022
Jake Horton and Daniele Palumbo, "Russia sanctions: Can the world cope without its oil and gas?," BBC, 11 July 2022
"Germany, Qatar sign energy partnership agreement," Al Jazeera, 20 May 2022
Mathew Dalton, "Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down," Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 148
By Emmanuel Royan
 
War on the Ground
On 21 July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) devalued the Ukrainian hryvnia currency by 25 per cent against the US dollar to assist the country from the economic impact of the war. The bank reduced the new hryvnia rate at 36.5686 to the dollar compared with the previous rate of 29.25. The governor of NBU Kyrylo Shevchenko mentioned that the new exchange rate "will become the anchor for the economy and make it more resilient at times of uncertainty." Changing the exchange rate would result in the increased inflows of foreign currency by exporters and minimize the "speculative behavior of market participants." The NBU has also forecasted the country’s inflation rate for 2022 to be more than 30 per cent from its previous forecast of 20 per cent. 
 
On the same day, the Ukrainian Stock exchange reported that the permission for holders of its Eurobonds to defer payments for two years and holders of its Value Recovery Instruments (VRIs) to change their terms is scheduled for tenth August. The Ministry of Finance stated that this measure will preserve foreign exchange liquidity within the country and reduce the existing USD five billion monthly budget deficit. 
 
Also on 21 July, the Secret Service of Ukraine detained a Russian spy suspected of sharing on the ground intelligence in Ukraine to assist the invasion. The agent was claimed to be a major business owner. The individual has been collecting information on deployment and movement of forces in the South and transmitted collected intelligence to the Russians by secure communication channels. His messages included map coordinates, detailed descriptions and pictures of buildings.
 
On 21 July, Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation reported that the joint agreement of the mobile operators of Ukraine and the EU will be extended for ease of communication. The refugees taking shelter in other countries will be able to continue calling their relatives in Ukraine without extra charges
 
On 21 July, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleh Nikolenk urged China to not politicize the war in Ukraine and to use its powers on Moscow to condemn the war. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 21 July, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin signed a decree to grant citizenship status to an individual from France. The head of the Foundation for the Development of Russian-French Strategic Initiatives, Pierre Malinowski served eight years in the French army. Then he was a member of the European Parliament, where he dealt with issues of relations with Russia. For the past six years he has been residing in Moscow and organizing historical projects based on the common history of Russia and France.

On 21 July, Hungary’s foreign minister Peter Szijjarto visited Moscow to purchase gas for his country. His party office stated: “In order to ensure the security of Hungary’s energy supply, the government has decided to purchase an additional 700 million cubic meters of natural gas in addition to the quantities stipulated in the long-term contracts.” 
 
On 21 July, the operator of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, Nord Stream AG has completed the maintenance of the pipeline and the twin turbines within the scheduled time. The operator mentioned that gas flow has achieved 40 per cent of the maximum capacity. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Western sanctions obstruct the maintenance of equipment and turbines critical for Nord Stream one  to work at full capacity. He said: "Any technical difficulties linked to this are caused by those restrictions that European countries introduced themselves."
 
Also on 21 July, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's second Commonwealth of Independent States, Alexey Polishchuk department stated that the 5+2 format on the Transnistrian settlement de facto was not progressive and gave no alternate solutions. The peace talks in the 5+2 format which includes Moldova and Transnistria as parties to the conflict, Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe acting as mediators and the EU and US with the observer status has began to lose momentum amid the political instability in Moldova.
 
On 21 July, the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mizintsev reported that more than 2.7 million people have been evacuated from Ukraine and from the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics to Russia since 24 February. He stated: "Despite the difficulties and obstacles created by the Kiev regime, during the day, as many as 26,764 people, including 4,624 children, were evacuated from dangerous zones in various Ukrainian regions, and from the republics of Donbass to Russia without participation of the Ukrainian side."

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 21 July, the first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska visited Washington to address the US Congress and called for additional defensive weapons. She expressed gratitude to the US for its assistance in providing aid to Ukraine. She stated:“We are grateful, really grateful that the United States stands with us in this fight for our shared values for human life and freedom.” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said Olena’s address has made the legislators “...learn more about the terrible toll of the Russian invasion and to express our gratitude to the people of Ukraine for their fight for democracy.” Senator Roger Wicker said that supplying Ukraine with defense systems was a “necessary part of our efforts” to help Ukraine, and Senator Bill Cassidy said that the Biden administration had congressionally approved the funds for Ukraine.
 
On 21 July, the US Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns reported that an estimated 15,000 Russians were killed in the war in Ukraine during his address to the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado. Also during the conference, the chief of MI6 Richard Moore mentioned that Russian spies working as diplomats in Europe have been expelled. Moore stated that the expulsions of about 400 Russian diplomats from countries in continental Europe, including France and Germany, had reduced the Kremlin’s espionage capabilities.
 
On the same day, the UK foreign secretary and prime ministership candidate Liz Truss in an interview with BBC Radio mentioned that she did not support the direct involvement of British troops in Ukraine. Truss said: "We are doing all we can to support Ukraine. We've led the international coalition on sending weapons, we're putting the sanctions in place, but I do not support the direct involvement of UK troops."
 
The UK’s National Crime Agency called for more funding to address Russian kleptocracy. NCA claimed that it receives only a third of the budget per officer given to the FBI, making it difficult for it to combat Russian kleptocracy and sanctions evasion. The UK had lagged behind the US in seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs who had been sanctioned, because London was unable to commit the same "substantial level of investment" that Washington had made in fighting global corruption and evading sanctions. 
 
The UK’s defense secretary Ben Wallace has revealed a further military support package for Ukraine, The UK will supply scores of artillery guns, drones and more anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the coming weeks. He also mentioned Counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s existing Soviet era artillery will be provided.
 
On 21 July, Bloomberg claimed that the Kremlin may hold referendum elections in the occupied territories for Putin to include them into Russia within September. According to sources on the ground authorities are preparing to set up elections in regions the Russian military is able to take control of in the upcoming weeks.
 
On 21 July, the foreign banks operating in Russia, which include Citi and Raiffeisen Bank International, began to recruit staff for operations amid sanctions. The Central bank of Russia has refused to take over the operation of foreign banks amidst domestic calls to do so. The foreign banks are unable to move out of Russia because of sanctions, therefore the banks have begun to start its operations and service nevertheless. 
 
On 21 July, the EU froze assets and banned visas of ten Syrians for recruiting mercenaries to fight for Russia. The names of the Syrians and two private security firms were added to the EU sanctions list. Those on the blacklist include the owner of the Cham Wings airline Issam Shammout, who is a close ally of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. An army colonel, Saleh al-Abdullah is accused of involving forces from his 16th Brigade, who worked with Russian forces in Syria, to fight against Ukraine. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 21 July, South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries reported that the cargo processed at seaports fell 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of this year amid global supply disruptions due to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. Cargo operated at the ports came to 373.98 million tons in the April-June period, compared with 394.17 million tons a year earlier.

References
Ukraine devalues hryvnia currency by 25% against U.S. dollar,” Reuters, 21 July 2022
Ukraine's SSU Successfully Arrest Suspected Russian Agent,” KyivPost, 21 July 2022
Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska Seeks More U.S. Support in Address to Congress ,” Wall Street Journal, 21 July 2022
Ministry of Digital Transformation Expands Services for Ukrainian Refugees,” KyivPost, 21 July 2022
NBU predicts inflation growth in 2022 to over 30%, its decline to 20.7% in 2023,” Interfax, 21 July 2022
Ukraine receives clear signs of support for proposal to defer payments on eurobonds from key owners group,” KyivPost, 21 July 2022
Ukraine calls on China to not politicize Russia's aggression against Ukraine, use its influence on Interfax-Ukraine,” KyivPost, 21 July 2022
Hungary FM in Russia to Discuss Buying More Gas,” KyivPost, 21 July 2022
Nord Stream operator completes planned maintenance works on gas pipeline on time - Business & Economy,” TASS, 21 July 2022
Mellisa Eddy, “Russia-Ukraine War: Russia Restarts Gas Flow,” The New York Times, 21 July 2022
Transnistrian 5+2 format de facto suspended,” TASS, 21 July 2022
Almost 3 mln people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia since operation began ,” TASS, 21 July 2022
Putin grants citizenship to Frenchman Pierre Malinowski,” lenta.ru, 21 July 2022
Kremlin Blames Russia-Europe Gas Supply Problems on Western Sanctions,” The Moscow Times, 21 July 2022
Phill Stewart, “CIA director estimates 15,000 Russians killed in Ukraine war,” Reuters, 21 July 2022
National Crime Agency calls for more funding to tackle Russian kleptocracy,” The Guardian, 21 July 2022
Half of Russian spies in Europe expelled since Ukraine invasion, says MI6 chief,” The Guardian, 21 July 2022
UK to send scores of artillery guns and hundreds of drones to Ukraine,” UK government, 21 July 2022
UK's Truss: I do not support direct involvement of our troops in Ukraine,” Reuters, 21 July 2022
EU slaps sanctions on Syrians accused of recruiting mercenaries for Russia,” KyivPost, 21 July 2022
Russia Moves to Annex Occupied Ukrainian Land by September,” Bloomberg, 21 July 2022
S. Korea's seaport cargo down 5.1% in Q2 amid Ukraine crisis By Yonhap,” The Korea Herald, 21 July 2022
Exclusive: Citi, Raiffeisen, other foreign banks seek staff in Russia as they struggle to exit,” Reuters, 21 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

ITALY
Prime minister Draghi resigns signalling impending snap elections
On 21 July, the Italy’s prime minister, Mario Draghi handed in his resignation, after the coalition of his national unity government collapsed. However, he has been asked by president Sergio Mattarella to stay on in a caretaker capacity, till snap elections are on 25 September. Leader of the Brothers of Italy party, Giorgia Meloni welcomed the news, as the bloc of conservative parties led by the Brothers of Italy seem to be in line to win a clear majority at the ballot. (Crispian Balmer, Giuseppe Fonte and Angelo Amante, “Mario Draghi resigns, plunging Italy into political turmoil,” Reuters, 22 July, 2022)

REGIONAL
European Central Bank hikes interest rates for first time in 11 years
On 21 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) declared that they will be raising the interest rates for the first time in 11 years. The interest has been raised by 0.5 per cent points to 0.0 per cent, while it had been negative since 2014. ECB president Christine Lagarde clarified that the inflation rate in the country is expected to remain high, due to the energy and food crisis, and that further rate hikes "will be appropriate." This step comes after the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve also increased their rates to try and deal with rising prices. (“Eurozone raises interest rates for first time in 11 years,” BBC, 21 July 2022)

Belgium and Iran sign controversial prisoner exchange treaty
On 20 July, Belgian parliament approved a controversial prisoner exchange treaty with Iran. 79 MPs votes in favour of the treaty, while 41 rejected it and 11 abstained. Justice minister, Vincent Van Quickenborne defended the treaty saying that it was important to free innocent people from the authoritarian regime in Iran. However, local NGOs and human rights groups criticised the deal and said that it will allow Iran to engage in “hostage diplomacy.” They fear that this could lead to convicted terrorists like Assadollah Assadi to be pardoned in exchange of Olivier Vandecasteele, a Belgian humanitarian worker who has been illegally held in Iran. The treaty could also help Swedish-Iranian academic Ahmadreza Djalali, sentenced to death in Iran be released. (“Belgian MPs approve controversial prisoner exchange treaty with Iran,” Euronews, 21 July 2022)

Sweden and Finland’s NATO protocol ratified by Finland and Sweden
On 21 July, Lithuania and Romania’s parliaments voted to ratify the protocol on Sweden and Finland’s accession. In Lithuania, the parliament ratified Finland’s accession protocol with 111 votes and Sweden’s with 112 votes, and the president Gitanas Nausėda signed the laws, thus completing the ratification procedure. In Romania, the members of parliament convened an extraordinary session to vote on the ratification process. The Chamber of Deputies and the Senate approved the law and no votes were registered against it. (Bogdan Neagu and Giedre Peseckyte, “Lithuania, Romania ratify Finland, Sweden’s NATO accession,” Euractiv, 21 July 2022)

Turkish foreign minister denies attack in Iraq
On 21 July, Iraq protested against Turkey for their alleged strikes on an Iraqi tourist resort, where eight people were killed and 20 were wounded. Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu has rejected the claims and said that they are willing to cooperate with Iraq’s authorities to investigate the “treacherous attacks.” He mentioned that the attack was being used as a “smokescreen” to prevent Turkish military operations in the region. Casavoglu further clarified that Turkey’s fight in Iraq has always been against the PKK, and that they would not attack any civilians. (Ali Abd Al-Hasan and Samya Kullab, “Turkey denies carrying out deadly strikes in northern Iraq,” AP News, 21 July 2022)
 
CLIMATE
Intense heatwave in Europe moves east and southwards
On 21 July, Reuters reported that the heatwave across Europe was moving towards the east and south. As a result countries like Italy, Poland and Slovenia have issues their highest heatwave alerts. In the ongoing European heatwave has led to hundreds of deaths in the continent. The high heat has also exacerbated the wildfires across Europe. A gas tank exploded in a forest in Italy leading to a forest first forcing hundreds to flee in central Italy. Similar numbers had to flee in Greece as winds spread wildfires in Greece too. Reportedly, wildfires are also ranging in Spain, Portugal, France and Poland too. (Renee Maltezou and Federico Maccioni, Europe's heatwave reaches Poland, Greece as it moves eastwards, brings wildfiresReuters, 22 July, 2022)


21 July 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #259

Estonia: New coalition after collapse | War in Ukraine: Day 147

Heatwaves disrupt Google and Oracle data centers; Mario Draghi to resign as PM soon; annual international music festival at Verbier begins; Macron calls for renewed peace talks between Israel and Palestine

Photo : Ken Mürk/ERR


Estonia: New coalition after collapse
By Emmanuel Royan 

On 18 July, the prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas formed her second government and took the office in the Riigikogu. She formed her new coalition government with her liberal Reform party, the Social Democratic party (SDE) and the conservative Isamaa party. The previous government was dissolved by Kallas on 15 July after breaking up her coalition with Center Party as it collided with the opposition the Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE). The new government coalition's priorities will include enhancing overall security, switching to an Estonian-language education system, and enhancing the economic security of the Estonian people. In addition, hasten the removal of energy market bottlenecks and accelerate the growth of renewable energy capacity in order to achieve stable energy costs.
 
The collapse of the government
On 03 June, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas dismissed seven ministers from the Center Party headed by former prime minister Jüri Ratas which made up her two-party coalition. Since then, discussions have taken place between various parties to create a new alliance. The first reason for dismissal being the Centre party was found to be operating against the values of Estonia. Which is the Center party’s engagement with Russia’s leader Putin. Although the relations between the Center Party and Russia is on the declining side, it was observed to be an obstruct to Kallas’s reforms and Estonia’s security. Second, when the split in the coalition was furthering over existing legislation reforms on family support payments, the coalition Center Party voted against the Reform party favouring the opposition party EKRE’s proposal for overturning an education bill. The bill would have mandated Estonian language at kindergarten level, such factors led to the break-up.
 
Formation of a new government
On 14 July, at an extraordinary session in the parliament, the prime minister announced the resignation of the cabinet. Hanno Pevkur, the deputy speaker, also announced his resignation from the office. After negotiations with the SDE and Isamaa party over the month, the prime minister Kaja Kallas proceeded to form the government with the new coalition on the same day during the second extraordinary session. Kallas delivered a presentation on the principles of establishing a government and the awarding of powers to the ministers in the parliament. After the parliament's approval of the prime minister to form a government, a third extraordinary session was convened on 18 July to take the oath of office. The three parties believe it is critical to focus on Estonia's long-term objectives and development requirements. The resilience and accessibility of Estonian culture, public finances, a creative and ecologically conscious business environment, and the accessibility of social and medical services is said to be given special consideration.
 
Challenges Ahead
First, improved security. Estonia which has been focusing on boosting its border security due to Ukraine war, has been barred due to Center party’s block in the coalition. With a new coalition in place, Estonia will now be able to boost its military capabilities and border defence in line with NATO and the Baltic countries.
 
Second, continuing economic crisis. Even if governments change, the problems at large persist. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, GDP growth is anticipated to decline from a very strong expansion in 2021 to 1.3 per cent in 2022 and 1.8 per cent in 2023. According to Eurostat, Estonia now has the highest inflation rate among the eurozone countries, with annual inflation reaching 22 per cent in June.
 
Third, addressing the refugee inflow from Ukraine. The government will have to help Ukrainian refugees return to their homes, and aid in the rebuilding of Ukraine's damaged regions as it had promised previously. Furthermore, to include the refugees in the labour market, the government will have to educate the Ukrainians Estonian language and reskill the men if necessary to provide employment. With a struggling political stability and economic crisis, treatment of refugees will pose additional challenge to the government.
References
Estonia: New cabinet sworn into office,” Deutsche Welle, 18 July 2022
Ott Tamick, “Putin Critic Kallas Needs New Estonian Allies to Keep Power,” Bloomberg, 06 June 2022
Estonian coalition collapses after tension over 'core values' escalates,” Financial Times, 13 June 2022
Cooperation agreement between the Estonian Reform Party, Isamaa, and the Social Democratic Party for 2022–2023,” Republic of Estonia, 18 July 2022
“ Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, 'Europe's new iron lady,' at risk of losing her position,” lemonde.fr, 11 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 147
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 19 July, Ukraine joined the International Energy Agency (IEA), after a joint declaration was signed in Warsaw. Ukraine’s energy minister, German Galushchenko, and the IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol represented the two parties. Galushenko said that given the energy war with Russia, this agreement will help Ukraine in building better energy systems in the country.

On 20 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a phone conversation with European Council  President Charles Michel. They discussed the on-ground situation in Ukraine. Zelenskyy stressed on the importance of modern heavy weapons for their war efforts and also thanked the member states for the recent fifth package of financial assistance to Ukraine. 
 
On 20 July, Ukraine’s armed forces shelled and destroyed parts of the Antonovsky bridge. This connects Kherson, which is currently occupied by Russia, with regions in the Crimean Peninsula. Ukraine used the HIMAR multiple launch systems, launching 12 rockets, and 11 of them hit the bridge. As a result, Russians in Kherson might soon face a dearth of supplies. They will also face troubles in retreating from Kherson in an organized fashion if necessary. 
 
Russia's forces continued their attack on the Sumy and Chernihiv regions with aviation, mortars, canon and rocket artillery. They also launched assaults on Bakhmut, on the way to the Vuhlehirska thermal power plant and opened fire in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
 
On the same day, in a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center, Mariupol mayor Vadym Boichenko alleged that Russia has set up at least four filtration centers. He said that over 10,000 Ukrainians were detained there, often under abusive conditions. Boichenko added that many Mariupol residents had already died in the filtration centers, as there were not doctors available.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 20 July, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told state media that Russia's "geographical goals" in Ukraine have moved beyond the Donbas region. He mentioned that their goals now include among other territories, Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya region. He blamed the West's steady weapons supply to Ukraine as the cause of Russia's change in objectives. Moreover, about the grain corridor talks with Ukraine and Turkey, Lavrov asked UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to intervene and facilit the process. This came after his comment that Moscow has agreed to "basic principles" on a grain agreement but Ukraine’s delegation has refused to include a clause to protect Russian exports.
 
On the same day, Russia's state media regulator, Roskomnadzor announced that they will punish Wikimedia Foundation. Wikipedia is being held in violation of law, as it allegedly has misleading information about the Ukraine war. Roskomnadzor said that a coercive measure will be applied which will require search engines to “inform internet users about a violation of Russian legislation by a foreign entity…”
 
On 19 July, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Vershinin said that international organisations should participate in the upcoming tribunal against Ukrainian militants. He also said that for greater awareness about the crimes against civilians in the Donetsk People’s Repuclic (DPR) and Lugansk People’s Republic(LPR), a “broader representation” will be necessary.
 
Russia’s envoy to North Korea, Ambassador Alexander Matsegora said that North Korea could send builders to the Donbas regions, to help in reconstruction efforts. He further mentioned: “Highly qualified, hardworking, and ready to work in the most difficult conditions, Korean builders will be an asset in the serious task of restoring social, infrastructural and industrial facilities destroyed by the retreating Ukronazis.”
 
On the same day, Russia’s chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mizintsev reported that around 600 tonnes of humanitarian cargoes were delivered to the DPR and LPR. Six humanitarian operations were conducted, which extended to the Kharkhiv and Zaporizhzhya regions. Mizintsev also said that over 28,000 people, including nearly 4,000 children, were evacuated from dangerous regions in Ukraine, and from the LPR and DPR to Russia.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 20 July, the EU asked member states to cut gas usage by 15 per cent till next March, pre-empting a complete shutdown of Russian gas supply. Ursula von der Leyen presented the commission’s winter plan and proposed the establishment of a new Council Regulation on Coordinated Demand Reduction Measures for Gas. This regulation would set targets to assist all member states to reduce their gas demands. The Commission has also adopted a European Gas Demand Reduction Plan which contains measures, principles and criteria for a coordinated reduction in gas demand.
 
On the same day, US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin said that they will send four more high mobility artillery rocket systems to Ukraine. At a virtual meeting with allies on Ukraine, Llyod Austin said: So far, the US has provided 12 HIMARS. "(We) will keep finding innovative ways to sustain our long-term support for the brave men and women of the Ukrainian armed forces…”
 
Also on 20 July, the Czech Republic’s foreign minister Jan Lipavsky and Austria’s foreign minister, Alexander Schallenberg visited Irpin. This is part of their work visit to Ukraine. The mayor of Irpin, Oleksandr Markushyn thanked them for their continued support to Irpin, and to Ukraine at large. The two leaders also met president Zelenskyy who thanked them for their “powerful support” and spoke about Ukraine’s membership to the EU. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 20 July, the World Health Organization said that millions of refugees and migrants are being denied appropriate and adequate healthcare. WHO is attempting to analyze the implications of migration and healthcare and have urged host countries to include vulnerable populations in their health systems. This crisis has been increased by the conflict in Ukraine which has pushed the total number of displace people in the world to above 100 million. Moreover, the UN refugee agency reported that since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February, more than 9.5 million border crossings have been recorded from Ukraine.
 
Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, met with Serbia’s president during his three-day visit to the country. The two leaders signed a partnership declaration announced plans for a free trade agreement and also discussed phase of dealing with the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

References
The representatives of Ukraine did not stop working for a single day to obtain an effective air defense system - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy” president.gov.ua, 20 July 2022
The First Lady of Ukraine met with the First Lady of the USA in Washington,” president.gov.ua, 20 July 2022
Ukraine Becomes Association Member of International Energy Agency,” Kyiv Post, 19 July 2022
Vital bridge attacked in Kherson as Ukrainian army goes on counter offensive,” Kyiv Post, 20 July 2022
Russian invaders continue to open fire on Sumy Region, Chernihiv Region,” Ukrinform, 20 July 2022
Fighting continues on approaches to Vuhlehirska TPP, near Berestove,” Ukrinform, 20 July 2022
Russian Occupiers Keep 10,000+ Mariupol Residents in Filtration Camps,” Kyiv Post, 20 July 2022
Russia’s Goals in Ukraine No Longer Solely Focused on the East – Lavrov,” The Moscow Times, 20 July 2022
Russia Asks UN Chief to Intervene in Ukraine Grain Talks,” The Moscow Times, 20 July 2022
 “Wikipedia designated as lawbreaker,” RT, 20 July 2022
Russia expects global organizations to take part in tribunal against Ukrainian militants,” TASS, 19 July 2022
North Korean Builders to Help With Donbas Reconstruction – Russian Ambassador,” The Moscow Times, 19 July 2022
Some 600 tonnes of humanitarian aid delivered to DPR, LPR, southern Ukraine,” TASS, 20 July 2022
"Over 23,000 people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia in past dayTASS, 20 July 2022
Save Gas for a Safe Winter: Commission proposes gas demand reduction plan to prepare EU for supply cuts,” ec.europa.eu, 20 July 2022
U.S. to send four more HIMARS to Ukraine,” Reuters, 20 July 2022
Czech, Austrian foreign ministers visit Irpin - mayor,” Ukrinform, 20 July 2022
Denying refugees and migrants healthcare violates rights, WHO says,” Reuters, 20 July 2022
More than 9.5 million border crossings from Ukraine since invasion: UN agency,” Reuters, 20 July 2022
Serbia, Egypt agree to boost cooperation amid war in Ukraine,” AP News, 20 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

THE UK
Rising temperature causes big tech’s data centers to shut down temporarily in the UK
On 19 July, Google and Oracle data centers in London had to shut down a few of their systems due to overheating caused by the heatwaves in the region. Oracle stated: “Following unseasonably high temperatures in the UK south (London) region, two cooler units in the data center experienced a failure when they were required to operate above their design limits.” On the same day in the evening, Google reported that one of the buildings experienced a cooling failure which hosts cloud services for west Europe. The firm said that it had powered down some of the equipment in order to prevent damage to them and a protracted outage. (Chris Vallance, “Heatwave forced Google and Oracle to shut down computers,” BBC, 20 July 2022)

New energy plant approved for Suffolk
On 20 July, the UK government approved the new Sizewell C nuclear power plant project funded by France’s energy firm Électricité de France (EDF) to be built on the Sufflolk coast. The project is estimated to cost  EBP 20 billion and would generate seven per cent of the country’s energy needs for the next 60 years. The new plant will be built next to the decommissioned Sizewell A and operating Sizewell B power plants. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, stated that the central government will be in charge of all upcoming planning decisions about the facility because it is considered to be a crucial infrastructure project for the country. (“Sizewell C nuclear plant gets go-ahead from government,” BBC, 20 July 2022)
 
ITALY
Draghi wins vote of confidence but lacks support from coalition
On 20 July, Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi stated that he would be open to continue being the prime minister if his quarreling coalition could promise "sincere and real support" for him. Even though he won in a vote of confidence in the parliament, it was done so without the support of significant parties in the power-sharing government. Draghi appears to have no other option except to submit his resignation. On 21 July, he is scheduled to address the lower chamber of the Italian parliament before meeting President Sergio Mattarella and may also formally announce his resignation at that time. (Hannah Roberts, “Mario Draghi faces the end after Italy's coalition refuses to back him,” POLITICO, 20 July 2022)
 
REGIONAL
Palestine’s president visits Paris to meet Macron
On 20 July, France’s president Emmanuel Macron with Palestine’s president Mahmoud Abbas in a press conference in Paris urged that the long-stalled peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians be restarted in order to prevent growing tensions in one of the Middle East's longest conflicts from erupting once more. Macron mentioned that in order to avoid new eruption of violence in the region Israel has to end its unilateral measures in the occupied West Bank, which includes expansion of Jewish settlements and evictions of Palestinian families from their homes. Macron condemned these actions as “contrary to international law.” Macron further reiterated his determination to lead efforts by the international community to restart negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and ultimately bring a “just and lasting peace.” (“Macron hosts Abbas for talks, calls for new Mideast peace push,” France24  20 July 2022)
 
International music festival begins in Verbier
On 20 July, the annual international music festival ‘Verbier Festival’ began in the mountain resort of Verbier on the Alpines of Switzerland. Director of the Verbier Festival, Martin Engström, stated: "We have about 300 young musicians between 15 and 30 years old working here in Verbier. They all come from different countries, and also from Russia, and also from Ukraine, and we are not blind to what is happening around us - so we live with the reality, and we have to be part of it." A 'Concert for Peace' in the symphonic style inaugurated the festival. The performance, which included pieces by Russian and Ukrainian composers, was led by Italian maestro Gianandrea Noseda and included Ukrainian pianist Anna Fedorova. (Frédéric Ponsard, “Switzerland's Verbier Festival hits the high notes,” Euronews, 20 July 2022)


20 July 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #258

War in Ukraine: Day 146

Rishi Sunak wins the fourth round of Tory leadership contest; Wildfires and record temperature across western Europe; Hungary puts forward an anti-European parliament resolution

Photo : South Korea's Ministry of National Defense/ The Korea Herald


War in Ukraine: Day 146
By Padmashree Anandhan
 
War on the Ground
On 19 July, first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska met first lady of the US, Jill Biden where both met the Ukrainian residents in the US and the USAID administrator. The USAID, is one of the partners to Ukraine which supports the Ukrainians in terms psychological under the Psychosocial programme. Zelenska stressed on the continuity of the programme. 

Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and the first deputy minister issues a statement on receiving of extra supply of sacks to store grains up to 200,000 tonnes from international allies. With the scheduled supply Ukraine will be able to store grains and use it for loading or unloading purposes for rest of the year. The statement also covered the harvest data of Ukraine, where 67 million tonnes of grain crops are due be harvested for the year.

On 19 July, Ukraine member of parliament released a statement announcing the dismissal of Ukraine’s spy agency Iryna Venediktova. The decision comes after 650 cases were filed over treason collusion charges.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

Russia’s Council member, Vladimir Dzhabarov commented on Estonia for portraying as a bigger player and for going against its neighbour Russia. The comments come in response to Estonia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs accusation of the EU for its double standards on Estonian citizens.

On 19 July, RT reported that the Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky had proposed for giving security guarantees to Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the 5+2 peace dialogues. Krasnoselsky said: “There are political representatives, there is the president, there are other Moldovan officials who should now be talking and finding compromises on the issues that are currently not being solved. The agenda of the talks is known by everyone quite well, and it still holds true.” The proposal comes as a way to solve the dispute between the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) and Moldova. Since the start of the war PMR is found to be experiencing series of explosions and has a history of holding friendly relations with Russia.

The Russian representative in the LPR region, Leonid Slutsky issued a warning that Russia will opt for stricter demands when negotiations with Ukraine resume.  He said: “Today, the conditions on our part will be tougher regarding demilitarization and ‘denazification’; tougher both in terms of essence and the timeframe of their implementation.”  Earlier the talks were paused, where Ukraine was blamed for not being on the forefront. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

The UK ministry of defence reported on the war ground status, where it found Russia to be holding six armies in Donbas and continues to face the issue of maintaining its combat power. It also said that Russia faces a limitation in terms placing soldiers and deploying military against Ukraine in Kherson region. It revealed the instant policy objective of Russia to be seizing of Donetsk and proceed further to acquire more territory. 

On 19 July, the Ireland government announced on the Gormanston army camp which has a capacity to hold 320 people will be soon ready to hold Ukrainian refugees. Close to 250 people located in an old terminal building of Ireland where, facing space shortage and due to which the army camp provides an option for the shift. According to the Irish minister for integration: “We have been focused on trying to reduce the numbers of people staying in City West, that's why we are looking to bring in additional accommodation.”

On 19 July, the European Commission accepted the proposal on reinforcing the defence industrial capabilities of the EU. The decision comes to address the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Commission will invest EUR 500 million from the EU budget from 2022 to 2024 to invest in the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) and boost its interoperability. According to Executive Vice-President, Margarethe Vestager: “..The proposal for the EDIRPA Regulation is a historical milestone in establishing the EU Defence Union, increasing the security of EU citizens and making the EU a stronger partner for our allies.”

On the same day, European Commission President von der Leyen issued a statement with leaders of Albania and North Macedonia on initiating the accession talks. In the released statement she announced the start of the screening process to ensure both countries are aware of the “rights and obligations of the EU.” Secondly, she assured how the EU, Albania and North Macedonia will work closely in terms of floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and migration. Apart from this Ursula confirmed on the investments in energy, transport and new business sectors.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 19 July, South Korea and the UK agreed to boost their defence cooperation in expanded domains such as cyber, outer space, and combined exercises in the first defence dialogue. During the meeting between South Korea’s vice defense minister Shin Beom-chul and UK defence minister Annabel Goldie, they discussed on the implementing the agreements on defence as part of the bilateral cooperation. Both South Korea and the UK has so far agreed to cooperate on “Indo-Pacific regional strategy, defence and security, North Korea issues, supply chains and trade.”

References
Olena Zelenska started her visit to the United States,” president.gov.ua, 19 July 2022
Agrarian policy ministry: Temporary grain storage equipment on its way to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 19 July 2022
Ukraine expects to harvest about 67M tonnes of grain and oilseed crops in 2022,” Ukrinform, 19 July 2022
The Federation Council announced the playful Estonia,” lenta.ru, 19 July 2022
Breakaway region bordering Ukraine seeks security guarantees,” RT, 19 July 2022
Russia warns of ‘tougher’ terms for talks with Ukraine,” RT, 19 July 2022
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 19 July 2022
County Meath: First Ukraine refugees to be housed at military camp,” BBC, 19 July 2022
Defence industry: EU to reinforce the European defence industry through common procurement with a €500 million instrument,” European Commission, 19 July 2022
Press statement by President von der Leyen with Prime Minister Fiala, Prime Minister Rama and Prime Minister Kovachevski on the start of the accession negotiations process and of the screening of the EU acquisEuropean Commission, 19 July 2022
S. Korea, UK hold 1st defense strategic dialogue to promote multifaceted security cooperation,” The Korea Herald, 19 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

ITALY
Carabinieri prevents the illegal sale of stolen 17th-century art
On 19 July, the Italian paramilitary force and Italian police thwarted a possible illegal sale of a 17th-century painting by the Baroque artist Artemisia Gentileschi at an auction house in Vienna. The Italian paramilitary force, which is also known as the carabiner art squad, had apprehended the dealers trying to sell off the artwork worth EUR two million to an intermediary based in Tuscany, which would then be sold abroad. The dealers would then purposefully ignore providing historical documentation of the artwork to obscure the details of its origin. The dealers had claimed Gentileschi's masterpiece, Caritas Romana (Roman Charity) to be the work of one of her followers and not the artist herself, to gain export permission from Italian authorities fraudulently. The specialized art squad is on the lookout for any artworks or antiques from Italy that are being exported illegally. ("Italian police thwart illegal sale of Artemisia Gentileschi painting," the Guardian, 19 July 2022)

THE UK
Fomer Chancellor Rishi Sunak comes ahead in the fourth round with 118 votes
On 19 July, the fourth round of the conservative leadership race, which will decide the successor of Boris Johnson, concluded with the former chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak leading with 118 votes. The former UK finance minister has been leading since the first round and is expected to be in the final round. Former trade minister, Penny Mordaunt followed Sunak with 92 votes. She is ahead of the former foreign secretary Liz Truss by six votes. Kemi Badenoch who was placed last in the fourth round with 69 votes was eliminated from the race. Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss are going ahead to the next round. ("Former UK finance minister Sunak wins fourth round leadership contest vote," BBC News, 19 July 2022)

TURKEY
Ankara's court ruled the exit from the Istanbul Convention lawful 
On 19 July, the move to withdraw Turkey from the Istanbul Convention on violence against women last year by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was upheld by Ankara's top administrative court. The court ruled the move to be pulled out of the European treaty was lawful and legal. Critics argued that the president did not have the power to take the action unilaterally.  The court rejected the petition to rescind Erdogan's move with a 40 page ruling that said that the president has the right of discretion in his interpretation of the Turkish laws. Turkey is said to have at least 38 per cent of women subjected to domestic violence in the country. Erdogan said that Turkey's women will be better off without the treaty and that it promoted homosexuality. ("Turkey: Court upholds exit from the treaty on violence against women," Deutsche Welle, 19 July 2022)\

REGIONAL
Hungary wishes to pass a bill that restructures the European parliament 
On 18 July, the Hungarian lawmakers from prime minister Viktor Orban's far-right party, the Fidesz party, voted to pass a resolution on an anti-European parliament bill. The content of the bill is that the parliament of the EU should be restructured and the goal of "ever closer union" in the EU treaties should be removed. The proposal said that the state heads should appoint lawmakers to the European parliament instead of the EU citizens electing them. The Hungarian proposal also suggested that the national parliaments should have the choice to veto any legislation at the EU and also to permit them to initiate legislative procedures. Orban said that the democracy in the EU parliament has met a dead end and that this resolution would help the bloc out of it and steer it on the right path. The resolution will antagonise an already angry EU with Hungary. The EU has been denying Hungary's recovery funds and credit due to Budapest ignoring the EU standards on the rule of law and anti-corruption methods. Hungary is in much-needed financial support as it is suffering from an economic crisis. ("Hungary: Lawmakers back anti-European Parliament bill," Deutsche Welle, 19 July 2022)

A man was questioned for arson in a wildfire in France amidst heatwaves across Europe
On 19 July, extreme heat resulted in wildfires across western Europe. 13,000 hectares of pine forest were burned down in France. A man was suspected to have started the wildfire. He was already accused of the same offence in 2012. A motorist spotted the man near the starting site of the blaze on 12 July. Investigators found evidence of arson in the area. France saw a record temperature of 42 degrees Celsius in the western city of Nantes due to the rising heat wave. Firefighters have been working tirelessly across France, Spain, and Germany, putting out wildfires that are spreading. The UK also recorded 40.2 degrees Celsius at London Heathrow Airport, the highest in the country. Europe is being ravaged by wildfires and heatwaves. The reason for the phenomenon is said to be climate change caused by humans. (Jon Henley, "Suspect in huge French forest fire questioned over arson in 2012," the Guardian, 19 July 2022)


19 July 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #257

War in Ukraine: Day 145

Liz Truss gained a lot MPs support during the latest round; Greece’s climate crisis minister fighting wildfires and bureaucracy; Petersberg climate dialogue to be hosted in Berlin; booming trade between both the Irelands

Photo : European Union, 2022. Source: EC - Audiovisual Service


War in Ukraine: Day 143 & 144
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 18 July President Volodymyr Zelenskyy temporarily suspended the Head of the Security Service (SBU) Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General Iryna Venedyktova. The president’s office said that even though an investigation was to be conducted on them, they have not been completely dismissed from service yet. The two top officials were removed in accordance with “Article 47 of the Disciplinary Statute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” which elucidates that a “serviceman” can be removed if they caused a significant threat, or failed to perform their duties leading to “human casualties or other grave consequences.”
 
In his address, Zelenskyy alleged that Russia was holding back the Ukrainians in the occupied regions in an “information vacuum.” He reported that 1,028 settlements were liberated from Russia, while 2,621 still remain under control.
 
On 18 July, the Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces released a statement on the ground developments, where several attacks across Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Zaporizhzhia, the Bakhmut region were observed. Followed by shelling, airstrikes were recorded in Rubizhne, Bohorodychne and Berestove.
The Russia’s navy was also found to be still blocking civilian ships in northwest Black Sea.

On the same day, in an interview with Forbes, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, blamed Russia for no progress on peace negotiations. He mentioned that any attempt at negotiation has been met with further strikes on Ukraine. While president Zelenskyy does not rule out the possibility of negotiations, Kuleba said: “Russia must sit down at the negotiating table after its defeat on the battlefield. Otherwise, it will again be the language of ultimatums.” In an address to the EU Foreign Affairs Council, Kuleba also outlined that “weapons to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and accountability for Russia” were the only three ways to restore peace to Europe and enhance the security of the continent. Additionally, the foreign ministry accused Russia of illegal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war. It urged Russia to adhere to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and stop using the captured soldiers for their “own political purposes.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 18 July, at a meeting with the Council for Strategic Development, president Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia will not backtrack from years of progress due to the West’s isolation. He said that Russia was being denied access to foreign hi-tech products but assured that they will not “lose heart” about it. While outlining their priority tasks, he said: “Obviously, we cannot develop in isolation from the rest of the world. And we won’t. It is impossible in the present-day world to merely issue as decree and erect a huge fence. It is simply impossible.”
  
The State Duma deputy chairman, Dmitry Novikov claimed that Ukraine’s military might overthrow their president. He further said that it would be best if they started to adhere to what Putin had recommended at the beginning of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine and their objective there. 
 
On 18 July, Russia’s defence ministry reported that the defence minister Sergei Shoigu had instructed the Vostok group to prioritize the destruction of long-range weapons from Kiev with high precision weapons. Shoigu reasoned that, it was crucial as Ukraine was shelling residential areas in the Donbas region and wheat fields and storage facilities with the long range weapons.
 
On the same day, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov said that while Germany is demanding Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the Minsk Agreement, designed for the same purpose was previously “killed” by Germany and France. He also alleged that in 2019, despite having a chance to sign the agreement at the Normandy format summit in Paris, Zelenskyy “did nothing, and Berlin and Paris were shielding him once again.” In an interview for Izvestia, Lavrov criticized France’s proposal to create a “European political community.” He said that the idea was deliberately confrontational and dividing in nature.
 
Gazprom has issued a letter to its customers in Europe saying that they will not guarantee gas supplies due to “extraordinary” circumstances. The letter says that they will retroactively be invoking the “force majeure,” popularly known as the "act of God" clause. This comes as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline undergoes 10 days of maintenance.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 18 July, the EU has announced that they have signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan about doubling their natural gas imports by 2027. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku to finalize the deal. As per the document signed by the two countries, the gas flow through the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline into the EU will be increased to 20 billion cubic metres annually by 2027.  

On the sidelines of the ongoing EU meetings in Brussels, Hungary's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó said that the EU had agreed to a new package of sanction on Russia. According to Szijjártó, the seventh set of EU sanctions will upgrade on the existing sanctions and include an embargo on Russian gold. The new package will also restrict the trade of dual-use products for both the civilian and military industries, along with further restrictions on public purchases. However, no official response has been released by the EU.

BBC reported tUK’s chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said that Russia has lost more than 30 per cent of its land combat effectiveness. He further clarified saying: “What that actually means is 50,000 Russian soldiers that have either died or been injured in this conflict, nearly 1,700 Russian tanks destroyed, nearly 4,000 armored fighting vehicles that belong to Russia destroyed.”
 
On the same say, the Kommersant newspaper reported that the turbine for the Nord Stream gas pipeline was sent from Canada to Germany. The turbine had reached the Russian Portovaya compressor station, while the pipeline goes through a scheduled annual maintenance till 21 July.
 
On 16 July, POLITICO reported that Russian students studying in various universities in Europe are facing extreme Russophobia. They are also facing pressure from Moscow to return to their homeland to complete their studies. Some students have also reported that Russophobia has become normalized and was actively contributing to discrimination.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

World’s second biggest clothing retailer, H&M declared that it was “impossible” to conduct their business in Russia and said that they will be discontinue their Russian stores. Though they have not provided a timescale for their exit, they mentioned that before leaving they will aim to sell the remaining stocks. Reportedly, there are over 150 H&M stores in Russia, which employs around 6000 staff, and accounted for the company’s sixth biggest market. 

References
Provide information and emotional support to our people in the occupied areas, tell them about Ukraine - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 18 July 2022
Zelensky temporarily suspends security chief, top prosecutor from duties,” Kyiv Post, 18 July 2022
Ukraine Army repels enemy attacks in three directions,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2022
No peace talks underway due to Russia's fault – Kuleba,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2022
Kuleba outlines three components of peace in Europe: weapons for Ukraine, sanctions and tribunal for Russia,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2022
Ukraine demands humane treatment by Russia of captured fighters, including foreigners,” Reuters, 18 July 2022
Putin: West cannot isolate Russia and send it back in time,” TASS, 18 July 2022
The Kremlin announced the changed conditions for negotiating with Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
The State Duma announced the possible overthrow of Zelensky by the Ukrainian military,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
Gazprom announced force majeure over supplies to Europe,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
Shoigu instructed Vostok to prioritize long-range weapons in Kyiv,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
Germany and France ‘killed’ Minsk agreements – Russia,” RT, 18 July 2022
Lavrov calls ‘European Political Community’ deliberately confrontational initiative,” TASS, 18 July 2022
EU agrees deal with Azerbaijan to double gas exports by 2027,” Euronews, 18 July 2022
Hungarian FM: EU passes new sanctions against Russia,” Daily News Hungary, 18 July 2022
UK defence chief: 50,000 Russian soldiers have either died or been injured,” The Guardian, 17 July 2022
Canada sends repaired Nord Stream turbine to Germany – Kommersant,” Reuters, 18 July 2022
Russian students in Europe face discrimination — and pressure from Moscow,” POLITICO, 16 July 2022
Michael Race, “H&M to sell off stock before leaving Russia,” BBC News, 18 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

ESTONIA
New government formed in Estonia after a collapse
On 18 July, the prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas formed her second government and took the oath in the Riigikogu. She formed her new coalition government with her liberal Reform party, the Social Democrats and the conservative Isamaa party. The previous government collapsed on 03 June after Kaja’s resignation and breaking up her coalition with Center Party as it collided with the opposition EKRE party. From Kaja’s party, the minister of finance Keit Pentus-Rosimannnus, minister of social protection signe Riisalo and Minister of rural affairs Urmas Kruuse retain their positions in the new government.  (“Estonia: New cabinet sworn into office,” Deutsche Welle, 18 July 2022)

THE UK
Lizz truss pulls close to Penny Mordaunt in the race for the Tory leadership
On 18 July, foreign secretary Liz Truss neared second place trade minister Penny Mordaunt in the race vying for the seat of the UK's prime minister. She got important backing from conservative MPs with having 71 votes in the latest round, increasing her support from 64. Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor is still leading the race with 115 votes. Sunak needs only five more votes to jump to the final round. According to the conservative party's rule, the lowest placed candidate in each round is eliminated until two remain after which they out to a vote of the rank and file Tory party membership. Foreign affairs committee chairman Tom Tugendhat fell prey to the rule with only 31 votes and got eliminated from the race. Kemi Badenoch, former equalities minister comes in fourth place with 58 votes backing her. Only four members remain out of the ten that started. All the candidates are looking to take the 31 MPs who backed Tugendhat for themselves. Mordaunt or Truss are expected to run against Sunak in the final round. (Andrew Mcdonald, "Liz Truss closes in on Penny Mordaunt in race to replace Boris Johnson," POLITICO, 18 July 2022)

Prime minister Boris Johnson wins yet another no-confidence vote 
On 18 July, prime minister Boris Johnson survived another no-confidence vote, winning by 349 to 238 with a majority of 111. Johnson, in his speech, said that the deep state, a term used by conspiracy theorists, is planning to haul the UK back into the EU after he leaves office. The debate on the no-confidence vote on Johnson was opened after his speech in the House of Commons. Johnson accused Keir Starmer and the deep state of having the intention of taking the UK back into the EU. Starmer opposed the idea that until a new leader is chosen  Johnson would be leading the government even after his resignation. Labour Party held a motion which indicated no confidence in the government. But the motion was rejected and the government itself tabled a motion of their own and won the no-confidence vote. Johnson also talked about achievements in the last three years of his governance such as Brexit and handling of the Covid pandemic. (Ben Quinn, "Boris Johnson defends record as government wins confidence vote," the Guardian, 18 July 2022)
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Berlin hosts Petersberg Climate Dialogue
On 17 July, Germany and Egypt hosting the Petersburg Climate Dialogue in Berlin. The representatives of government from 40 countries will discuss climate protection agreements and  preparations for the COP27 World Climate Conference to be held in Egypt from 07-18 November. The secretary-general Antonio Guterres in a video address to the dialogue warned that “Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise and ocean heat have broken new records. Half of humanity is in the danger zone from floods, droughts, extreme storms, and wildfires. Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction.” He urged for stronger cooperation between nations. (“Petersberg Climate Dialogue: starting signal for UN climate negotiations,” unric.org, 18 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Northern Ireland and Ireland have successful trading despite Brexit and energy prices
On 18 July, the official government data released in Dublin showed that trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is booming in both directions post-Brexit with a EUR four billion boost. The report reveals that in January and May 2022 the imports from NI to Ireland increased by 23 per cent up to EUR 1.9 billion whereas there has been a 43 per cent increase to EUR1.9 billion in trade from Ireland to NI when compared to the same period in the last year. There has been an astonishing growth in the movement of food and live animals from Northern Ireland to Ireland. Rising energy prices increased energy trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Due to the Northern Ireland protocol, trade between Belfast and Dublin has not been affected by Brexit when compared to the rest of the UK, which is dealing with mountains of paperwork to sell into the EU. (Lisa O' Carroll, "Trade across Irish border booms after Brexit amid energy growth," the Guardian, 18 July 2022)

Heatwave's causing wildfires and concerns in Greece and the UK
On 15 July, Greece's climate crisis and civil protection minister Christos Stylianides talked about the increasing wildfire due to the rising heatwaves in all of Europe. The former commissioner for humanitarian aid and crisis management of Europe also said that he has to fight bureaucracy as well to change the climate crisis that Greece is going through along with the rest of the world. The response from the Greek authorities has been slow when compared to the speeding climate crisis. He also said that they are moving in the right direction to counter the climate crisis. Both the fire department and the forestry service are working hand in hand to prevent and stop wildfires. Elsewhere in the UK, the second hottest temperature in the nation of 38.1 degrees Celsius was recorded in Suffolk on 18 July. (Nektaria Stamouli, "Greek climate minister fights fires — and the system," POLITICO, 15 July 2022; "UK swelters under hottest night on record," BBC News, 18 July 2022)


18 July 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #256

War in Ukraine: Day 143 & 144

Cargo plane from Siberia crashes in Greece; Right-wing party refuses to work with five-star movement amid its collapse; Protest against new tax law in Hungary; The EU spends large subsidies on hydrogen technology

Photo : REUTERS/Ognen Teofilovski


War in Ukraine: Day 143 & 144
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
 
War on Ground
On 17 July, the Ukrainian forces staved off Russia's assault near Ivano-Darvika, also Moscow's attempt to move forward in the Sloviansk direction. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) also deterred Russian troops from conducting reconnaissance activities. The Russian troops openly fired on settlements in the Kharkiv, the Sloviansk and the Bakhmut directions using rocket artillery, cannon, mortars, and missiles. The UAF stopped Russian troops from advancing further and prevented them from doing reconnaissance through unmanned aerial vehicles. 
 

On 17 July, the Ukrainian army reported that Russian navy had redeployed warships from Sevastopol in Crimea to the country's port in Novorossiysk. The deployment of the ships earlier in missile-proof regions was covered by coastal air defence systems, which were as near to the coast as possible. Russia continues to control maritime navigation in the Sea of Azov to illegally export products confiscated from Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

On the same day, Russia was found to have two Kalibr missile carriers and one amphibious ship in the Black Sea. The Russian troops were found to have changed their deployment points in the Kherson region to hide behind civilians, where the UAF would not attack. Russia attacks periodically to ensure control of Snake Island. Their equipment on the island was struck by a pair of Ukraine's Su-24 bombers at night.


On 15 July, deputy minister of culture and information policy of Kyiv Kateryna Chuyeva accused Russia for destroying cultural heritage sites. The ministry found that 453 cultural sites were either destroyed or damaged. Major museum collections from Mariupol and Melitopol were reported to be stolen or taken away by the Russians.

On 16 July, economic advisor to Ukraine president, Oleg Ustenko, wrote to heads of major banking firms such as JP Morgan Chase, HSBC, Citigroup and Crédit Agricole asking to quit financing the Russian invasion. The banks had been accused for prolonging the war by providing credits for Russian oil companies such as Gasprom and Rosneft. They were called out for help in Russia's war crime by giving credits and having securities investment trusts holding stakes. This helps the revenue of Russia that will directly finance the war. Rudenko said that he will sue the banks for financing Russia's war crimes.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 15 July Russia requested documents of the Nord Stream pipeline's turbine to be returned from Germany. The turbine which was held back by Canada due to the sanctions imposed on Russia is to be delivered to Russia by Germany. The German industrial company Siemens was asked to provide documents for the return of the turbine. Canada does not directly violate the sanctions that it had imposed on Russia by giving the turbine, which was to be repaired in the Canadian factory of the firm, to Germany. The Nord Stream pipeline is the major pipeline that supplies gas to Europe. It is currently out of action due to the 10-day maintenance period.

On 16 July, presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin commented that Russia will venture till they will be able to no longer need SWIFT. He said that Russia is looking at increasing its comfort for foreign economic activity. He also said that the dollar and the euro are being used by the world due to their convenience but are keeping it hostage to the western financial system. He said that it will change as the situation has raised where Chinese yuan and Russian ruble turnovers are soaring.

On 17 July, Russia said that it will continue its offensive until Ukrainian military capabilities are completely wiped out. The threat of the Ukraine Junta attacking the Crimean bridge has finalised Moscow's military goal of demilitarization and denazification of the entirety of Ukraine. Russia wants to protect its region of Crimea which was added in 2014 after the referendum.

On the same day, a storage warehouse for Harpoon anti-ship missiles at an industrial site in Odessa was demolished by Russian forces. It destroyed the anti-ship missiles using high precision long-range missiles. The Russian troops also destroyed HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) multiple launch rocket systems(MLRS), which were manufactured in America and a resupply vehicle by high precision ground-based weapons. The Russia's defence ministry also reported that its air defence systems and aerospace had struck down one Su-25 aircraft and a Mi-17 helicopter of the UAF in Kharkiv region.

On 17 July, the head of the village of Zernovo in the Suzemsky district of Russia bordering Ukraine reported that the place was bombed by the UAF. 29 shells were fired according to initial information. but no casualties were recorded.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 16 July, the majority of North Macedonia's parliamentarians voted in favor of France's proposal to open the door to negotiations for the country to join the EU. The proposal was approved by 68 of the 120 members of the parliament. The MP’s have also voted in favor of making sure that negotiations with the EU are conducted on an equal and moral basis, with respect for international law, the Macedonian language, and its identity.

On 16 July, president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and French president Emmanuel Macron in a phone call discussed the establishment of a coordination center in Istanbul to manage the grain exports through the Black Sea.

The US intelligence and military analysts claim that Russia's need to fill a critical battlefield gap and find a long-term supplier of a crucial combat technology is reflected in the US revelation that Moscow is seeking hundreds of armed and unarmed surveillance drones from Iran to use in the war in Ukraine. In order to counter Russian systems with advanced technology, the Royal United Services Institute, a research institution in London, came to the conclusion that Ukraine needed more of its own electronic warfare gear. According to the report, Ukrainian surveillance drones that aid in targeting Russian forces last just about a week before Russian defences compel them to crash or shoot them down.

On 16 July, the New York Times examined the report of the Organization for Security and economic Cooperation for Europe on the violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, war crimes committed in Ukraine released on 14 July. The detention or disappearance of thousands of Ukrainians was one of the two topics that the OSCE report focused on. The other was Russians utilizing the filtration centers to look for Ukrainians who might be connected to the Ukrainian military, government, or media. These facilities are where Ukrainians who are evacuating an attacked city must go before their personal information is recorded. Some deported Ukrainians who managed to flee Russia have related stories of brutal interrogations and humiliating body examinations. Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region's Bezimenne has grown to be a particularly well-known centre. According to the report, 33,000 persons had been processed by Bezimenne by 17 May.

On 17 July, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell commemorated the day of International Criminal Justice. Borrell stated that the EU will continue to support the International Criminal Court financially, diplomatically, and politically in order to “to allow it to carry out effectively its vital work on behalf of victims of grave international crimes. Moreover, the EU and its Member States will continue their work in favor of the universal ratification and full implementation of the Rome Statute.” Borell also expressed sympathy by recognizing the eight anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, where 298 passengers from 17 different countries lost their lives. The aircraft was shot down by rebel forces in the midst of the Donbass conflict, a Russian separatist force-controlled region as it was passing over eastern Ukraine in 2014. The aircraft crashed 40 kilometers from the border, close to Hrabove in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.

Also on 17 July, the Latvian State Revenue Service reported that over 1,250 trucks were stalled at two border crossings between Latvia and Russia. The longest wait time was 153 hours. Additionally, there were queues at the border between Latvia and Belarus, where 450 vehicles were stuck in traffic at two crossings for 32 to 67 hours. The transition period that permitted sanctioned items to be exported from the European Union to Russia and imported into the EU under previously signed agreements came to an end on July 10.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 16 July, the finance ministers of the Group of 20 largest economies met to address global issues like inflation and food crises, but they were unable to come to an agreement on the conflict in Ukraine. As this year's G-20 host, Indonesia has attempted to heal the rifts caused by Russia's incursion, but tensions remain despite agreement among the finance ministers and central bankers on other global issues that the crisis has made worse. Also during the meeting, Canada sent a warning to a Russian delegation that was present at a gathering of the G20 saying it believed that president Vladimir Putin's economic advisors were personally complicit in war crimes. Deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland stated that she informed the group that "Putin's economic technocrats, who work to fund Putin's war machine, are personally complicit in Russia's war crimes, just as Putin's generals are."

On 17 July, the state councilor and foreign minister of China Wang Yi had a telephone call with foreign minister of Hungary Peter Szijjarto. Szijjarto, gave a brief overview of the state of affairs in Europe and Hungary, focusing on the difficulties Hungary is currently facing economically and financially as a result of the Ukraine crisis's spillover effects. He said Hungary is pleased with the achievements resulting from cooperation with China in various fields, especially the smooth progress of trade and investment cooperation

References
"Ukraine Army Repulses Assaults and Russia’s Attempt to Conduct Reconnaissance," Kyiv Post, 17 July 2022
"Ukraine at UN: Russia deliberately destroying cultural heritage throughout country," Kyiv Post, 16 July 2022
"“Significant number” of Russian warships moved from occupied Crimea to Russia’s Novorossiysk," Ukrinform, 17 July 2022
"Russia’s enemy landing ship, two Kalibr missile carriers stationed in Black Sea," Ukrinform, 17 July 2022
"Ukraine calls on bosses of US, European banks to sever ties with groups that trade Russian oil, stop lending to Russian war crimes – Oleg Ustenko," president.gov.ua, 16 July 2022
"Threats to Crimea justify demilitarization of Ukraine – senator," RT, 17 July 2022
"Depot for storage of Harpoon missiles destroyed in Odessa — Russia’s top brass," TASS, 17 July 2022
"Russia to get along without SWIFT — presidential aide," TASS, 16 July 2022
"Russia requests documents on Nord Stream turbine return," RT, 16 July 2022
"The head of the Russian region bordering Ukraine announced the shelling of the village of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Lenta.ru, 17 July 2022
"The Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of the American MLRS HIMARS," Lenta.Ru, 17 July 2022
North Macedonia: Parliament approves deal to start EU bid,” Deutsche Welle, 16 July 2022
Erdoğan, Macron discuss Istanbul talks on Ukraine grain exports,” Daily Sabah, 16 July 2022
 Eric Schmitt, Thomas Gibbons-Neff and John Ismay, “As Russia Runs Low on Drones, Iran Plans to Step In, U.S. Officials Say,” The New York Times, 71 July 2022
Day of International Criminal Justice: Declaration by the High Representative Josep Borrell on behalf of the European Union,” Consilium.europa.eu, 16 July 2022
Ukraine: Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the occasion of the 8th anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,” Consilium.europa.eu, 16 July 2022
Maham Javaid, “More accounts of abuses in so-called Russian filtration camps in new report add to international concern,” The New York Times, 16 July 2022
Elaine Kurtanebach, “G20 finance meetings in Bali overshadowed by war in Ukraine,” Associated Press, 17 July 2022
Wang Yi says lessons should be learned from Ukraine crisis,” CGTN, 17 July 2022
Hundreds of Outbound Trucks Stuck at Latvia Border,” Bloomberg, 17 July 2022
Canada Tells Putin's Technocrats They're Liable for War Crimes,” Bloomberg, 17 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

HUNGARY
Protests emerge against new tax law on small firms
On 16 July, a 1000 demonstrators protested against the prime minister Viktor Orban’s new law that raises taxes for small firms. Since self-employed individuals and independent contractors relied on the tax relief programme for almost 20 years, the law could have an impact on them. Following the bill's passage, the right-wing Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban also reduced a cap on utility bills for homes with increased utility usage due to rising electricity and gas prices. Hungary is eligible for awards worth billions of dollars through the COVID response fund of the EU, but Brussels has not yet made those funds available due to worries about democratic standards and corruption. (“Hungary: Protesters angered by Orban-backed tax reforms,” Deutsche welle, 17 July 2022)

ITALY
Right-wing parties refuse to work with 5Star movement
On 17 July, the leaders of the two right-wing parties that make up the current coalition, Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini declared that they could no longer cooperate with the 5Star Movement, tipping Mario Draghi's government even farther toward dissolution. They  released a joint statement in which they declared that they had "..excluded the possibility of ruling with the 5Stars any further due to their ineptitude and untrustworthiness." Right-wing parties are anticipated to prevail as a coalition in an early election, which Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the extreme right Brothers of Italy opposition party, has been calling for. The thought of an election taking place "very soon" was welcomed by Berlusconi and Salvini, who said they would monitor the development of the political situation. (Hannah Roberts, “Italian right-wing parties reject coalition partner as government heads toward collapse,” POLITICO, 17 July 2022)

REGIONAL
The EU splurges on hydrogen technology as an alternative to gas
On 15 July, the European Commission decided to give subsidies of EUR 5.4 billion for hydrogen energy technologies. There have been questions raised about the technology's potential to reduce carbon emissions in polluting industries. The subsidies exceeded previous large-scale cross-border projects. The hydrogen technology project started with fifteen countries in the EU. The companies are selected for subsidies in four types of technology: hydrogen generation, fuel cells, storage and distribution and end-user technology. The public support may open another EUR 8.8 billion from private investors. The hydrogen technology was sought after due to rising gas and oil prices. (Simon Van Dorpe and America Hernandez, "EU goes big on hydrogen as gas crunch looms," POLITICO, 15 July 2022)

Cargo plane from Serbia carrying weaponry crashes
On 16 July, a cargo plane crashed near Palaiochori Kavalas in northern Greece. Meridian Airlines, based in Ukraine, was flying the aircraft from Nis, Serbia, to Bangladesh through Jordan. According to reports, the pilot asked for permission to make an emergency landing at the neighboring Kavala airport because of an engine issue, but he was unable to make it there.  Filippos Anastasiadis, the mayor of the impacted town of Pangeo, claimed that the jet had been carrying "hazardous stuff," most likely weaponry. Around 11 metric tonnes of guns and mines were being sent to Bangladesh, who had purchased the armaments. Serbia's Defense minister, Nebojsa Stefanovic said that the shipment contained training shells and illumination mortar rounds. Mid-afternoon local time, it departed from Nis. The Ukrainian crew members, according to Stefanovic, were all dead. (“Plane transporting ′dangerous material′ crashes in Greece,” Deutsche Welle, 17 July 2022)

Wildfires continue to enrage in Western European countries
On 17 July, firefighters battled wildfires that were out of control in France and Spain as Europe wilted under an abnormally intense heat wave that officials have linked to an increase in excess mortality.  Just south of Bordeaux in southwest France, two enormous fires have been consuming pine trees for six days. 14,000 people, many of whom were in the area on vacation, were evacuated due to the flames. The emergency brigades of the armed forces helped Spanish firefighters put out more than 30 flames that were raging through the nation's woodland. A summer heat wave in Europe is to blame for the destructive forest fires. Early next week, parts of Europe are preparing for new temperature records. A District head in Spain, Juan Manuel Moreno, stated that firefighters were able to contain a blaze that had destroyed 2,000 hectares of plants and trees in the southern province of Andalusia. Inland from the southern coastal city of Malaga, the Mijas mountain range is where the fire first broke out on Friday. About 3,000 people had to be evacuated as a result. (“Wildfires continue to rage in France and Spain,” Deutsche Welle, 17 July 2022)

 


16 July 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #255

EU’s Digital Services Act: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 142

Photo : aurora-universities.eu


EU’s Digital Services Act: Three takeaways
By Emmanuel Selva Royan

On 05 July, the European Parliament approved the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA), two legislations are intended to limit the influence of big tech and improve internet security. The DMA obtained 588 votes in favor, 11 against it, and 31 were abstained. DSA was approved with 539 votes in favor, 54 votes against, and 30 abstentions. The DSA lays  specific requirements for digital service providers, social media platforms and  online marketplaces, this is to address the threats to society in terms of dissemination of illicit content and online misinformation. Therefore, any unlawful online activites will be monitored and governed under the DSA's fundamental tenet. The president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stated: “Today's agreement on the Digital Services Act is historic, both in terms of speed and of substance. The DSA will upgrade the ground-rules for all online services in the EU. It will ensure that the online environment remains a safe space, safeguarding freedom of expression and opportunities for digital businesses.”
 
Three takeaways
First, increased attempts for transparency and accountability. The DSA will restrict tracking-based advertising and misleading design techniques used by platforms and establish a tough EU-level enforcement framework for the biggest platforms. Through this, the EU countries will have access to more information and transparency and will be able to directly examine these "black boxes" to find the data the regulators need to ensure the execution and oversight of activities in the internet space. In addition, the data will be made available to qualified researchers so they can undertake study to assist the enforcement efforts.
 
Second, emphasis on protection of rights online. The law requires firms to promptly remove any illegal content, such as anything including child sexual abuse, hate speech, terrorist propaganda, or an illegal product. With quick removal of posts, victims of online abuse will be better safeguarded against unauthorized, non-consensual distribution of private photographs. The act limits data collection for profiling and a ban on advertising directed specifically at children. Online advertising targeting based on a user's sexual preference, health information, religion, or political convictions is prohibited. Hence, removal of illegal content, the effective protection of users' fundamental rights online, and right to free speech, have been addressed in the Digital Services Act.
 
Third, empower small enterprises and startups. The gatekeeping of major online platforms has become detrimental as it stifles competition and disadvantages small and medium enterprises (SME) and newcomers into the industry. For the moderation of communications and content rankings, small enterprises and organizations are dependent on major platforms. SMEs and startups are forced into direct competition with gatekeepers who exploit their data to further their own interests since platforms like Google and Facebook hold the keys to accessing the consumer data. By increasing transparency regarding the inner workings of advertising and ranking algorithms, the DSA will help level  playing field for SME enterprises..
 
References
Europe fit for the Digital Age: New online rules for businesses,” European Commission
Digital Services: landmark rules adopted for a safer, open online environment,” European Parliament, 05 July 2022
How the Digital Services Act will keep children safe online,” World Economic Forum, 20 June 2022
Digital Services Act: agreement for a transparent and safe online environment,” European Parliament, 23 April 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 142
By Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 14 July, the chairmanship of the head of the office of the president, Andriy Yermak held a meeting under the president on account of the Presidium of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. The main agenda for the meeting was a fast recovery plan for Ukraine to deal with the aftermath of the full-scale war. Their main aim was to restore and improve what was destroyed during the Russian aggression without delay. The state budget had allocated UAH three billion which was provided for the restoration of villages, towns, and cities that were affected during the war. The total amount required for the fast recovery plan implementation is estimated to be USD 17 billion. 

On 14 July, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck down Russian barracks and headquarters at Nova Mayachka in the region of Kherson. The Russian troops had set up near a former children's sanatorium. In the past few weeks, UAF has eliminated the Russian camp at sixteen sites. They destroyed their barracks and ammunition depots.

On 15 July, Russia assaulted the two biggest universities in Mykolaiv with at least ten missiles. Two people were reported to be injured. The attack took place around 0750 hrs in the morning. The mayor of Mykolaiv, Vitaliy Kim, also the head of the Mykolaiv military administration called upon universities of all democratic countries to deem Russia as a terrorist nation.

On the same day, 197 civilians who were affected by Russian missile attacks on the city of Vinnytsia requested medical aid. The aftermath of the three Russian Kalibr missiles that struck the city left 23 people dead, 197 people injured and 50 residential houses destroyed. Ukrainian anti-aircraft defence units in Vinnytsia struck down two more of the missiles.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 15 July, the Russian minister of industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, said at a plenary session in the State Duma that the Russia should also look at satisfying its domestic need rather than stick to a market economy. He also said that it should amend its industrial policy to achieve the goals it has set. The policy must focus on turning Russia into a technological sovereign. He also said that Russia should start producing its products and technology for defence, energy sector, shipbuilding, aircraft, and chemical industries domestically rather than importing it from foreign countries.
 
On the same day, Russia justified its missile attack in Vinnytsia city in Ukraine. The Russian military said that it only struck Ukrainian high commanders and officers who were dealing with foreign weapons suppliers. They also said that the attack was not intended toward civilians refuting Ukraine's defence ministry's claims that it was deliberate. Russia claimed that it killed all the participants in the negotiations between Ukraine's military air fleet and foreign weapon suppliers. Moscow accused Ukraine of having military bases near civilians and that it was their fault for the death of the civilians.
 
Also on 15 July, Ukraine's two MiG-29 aircraft were shot down by Russian fighter jets in a special military operation in the region of the Donetsk People's Republic. There were reports of 230 Ukrainian military targets and 18 command posts being struck down in the past 24 hours. The Russian air force also shot down Ukraine's two Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack aircraft in the Nikolayev region.
 
Also on the same day, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, the UN Secretariat was not observed to be taking a balanced stance on the situation around the city of Vinnytsia in Ukraine. She said that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' statement was conflicting with the UN charter and the Secretariat's balanced stance. She also said that the UN was supposed to look into any matter without any bias and has to facilitate efforts to maintain peace and stability. She also justified Russia's attack on the city as an attack on Ukrainian high officials having a negotiation with foreign arms suppliers.
 
Also on 15 July, a law was passed that granted the Russian FSB fighters that served on the borders the status of veterans reflecting their work in Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. The bill passed through the three readings of the lower house of the State Duma and was signed by President Vladimir Putin. They were to receive special benefits including tax benefits, social support, pension, and various other things.
 
The Federal Council called out that the European Commission eased its sanctions against Russia for fear of food complications. The sanctions were threatening food shortages not only in Africa but also in the EU in the future. In the seventh package of sanctions, the EU eased up on several restrictions that focused on Russian exports. It has allowed now for the countries to let Russian ships access their ports for food and medicines.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
On 14 July, the US Treasury Department elucidated that exports of food, fertilizers, agricultural equipment, and medicines do not violate its sanctions against Russia. The Treasury Department accused president Putin of using food as a tool of war.
 
At the gathering of the finance ministers at the G20 meeting, Canadian deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland told the Russian delegate that she holds Moscow to be accountable for their war crimes in Ukraine. Freeland is also Canada's finance minister. She also stated that not only the defence ministry is responsible for the war but also economic technocrats who are part of the war crimes.

Also on 14 April, the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), banned Russia from participating in Europe's football competitions such as the Champion's league. The CAS upheld the decision made by UEFA and FIFA to bar Russian national teams and clubs after Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia was already banned from the Men's Football World Cup qualifying and women's European Championship. They are excluded from participating in the Champions League 2022-23. The FIFA and UEFA decision did not exceed their authority while dealing with unforeseen and unprecedented circumstance, in this case, the war in Ukraine. The Russian football federation strongly disagreed with CAS's decision.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 15 July, North Korea said that Ukraine has no right to have a problem with the recognition of DRP and LRP. According to North Korea, the two breakaway regions are legitimately exercising sovereignty. On 13 July, Ukraine announced that it is severing its diplomatic relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea due to it supporting the pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. North Korea became the third country after Russia and Syria to recognise DRP and LRP.

On the same day, China abstained from supporting the US demand for a price cap on Russian oil. According to Shu Jueting of the Chinese ministry spokeswoman, the price capping of Russian oil is a complicated issue. China listened to the US demand but said that it would take action that facilitates all the involved parties sitting down for peace dialogues. It wants to promote cooling down the situation rather than blowing the crisis. The US wants to cap Russian oil so that it would further restrict Moscow's energy revenue and thereby allow more oil to reach the global market. India and China are major buyers of Russian oil and have abstained from joining the west to place sanctions on Moscow. The talks between the US and China went constructively with both sides agreeing that the world economy is facing challenges and they have to coordinate to create US-China macro policies. China has refrained from openly condemning Russia even though there is pressure from the west.

References
Alexandra Klitina, "Russia attacked largest universities in Mykolaiv with at least 10 rockets," Kyiv Post, 15 July 2022
"197 civilians request medical assistance after Russia’s terrorist attack on Vinnytsia," Ukrinform, 15 July 2022
"Ukrainian forces destroy Russian headquarters, barracks in Kherson region," Ukrinform, 15 July 2022
"Andriy Yermak held a meeting of the Presidium of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities under the President at which the plan for the recovery of Ukraine was presented," president.gov.ua, 14 July 2022
"Russia to turn away from market economy," RT, 15 July 2022
"Russia explains deadly strike on Ukrainian city," RT, 15 July 2022
"Russian fighter jets down two MiG-29 planes in Ukraine operation, top brass reports," TASS, 15 July 2022
"UN fails to take balanced stance on situation around Vinnitsa — Russian diplomat," TASS, 15 July 2022
"The State Duma granted the status of veterans of the FSB fighters reflecting the "invasion of Russia"," Lenta.ru, 15 July 2022
"The Federation Council called the reason for easing a number of EC sanctions against Russia," Lenta.ru, 15 July 2022
Canada’s Freeland says Russia’s G-20 delegation responsible for war crimes," Washington Post, 15 July 2022
"U.S. says food, fertilizer shipments do not breach Russia sanctions," The Washington Post, 15 July 2022
"Top sports court upholds Russia ban," The Daily Sabah, 15 July 2022
"N. Korea says Ukraine has 'no right' to criticize its recognition of separatist regions," The Korea Herald, 15 July 2022
"On Russian oil, China shuns US call to cap prices and urges dialogue in ‘very complicated’ issue," SCMP, 14 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

REGIONAL
US and Russia sign deal to send astronauts to ISS
On 15 July, NASA from the US and Roscosmos, Russia’s Space Agency signed a deal to send each country’s astronauts to International Space Station. The deal will serve as a break between the two amidst the war. As per the agreement, US astronaut Frank Rubio, Sergey Prokopyev, Dmitry Petelin, and Anna Kikina will fly in the September. According to the Nasa administrator and former space shuttle astronaut, Bill Nelson: “Despite all of that, up in space, we can have a cooperation with our Russian friends, our colleagues. The professional relationship between astronauts and cosmonauts, it hasn’t missed a beat. This is the cooperation we have going on in the civilian space program.” As per the statement from Roscosmos, it said that the agreement was signed due to interests of both parties and help in promoting cooperation withing ISS framework. (Richard Luscombe, “US and Russia agree to fly each other’s astronauts to the ISS as tensions thaw,” The Guardian, 15 July 2022)
 
Pacific Island Forum ends with stress on reducing usage of coal and fossil fuels
On 16 July, the Pacific Island Forum ended with leaders participating from Tonga, Palau, Papua New Guinea, French Polynesia, Albanese, and Solomon Islands. The pacific leaders urged Australia and big economy countries to step away from using coal and asked to pledge on banning fossil fuels projects. According to Tuvalu’s foreign minister: “Obviously they’ve been in office for about two months now, but the messaging that’s coming from them is very positive. So, we’re hopeful that we can work on the issues that the Pacific is pushing for.” (Kate Lyons, “Smiles and unity at the Pacific Islands Forum mask tough questions shelved for another day,” The Guardian, 16 July 2022)
 
European Commission files case against Hungary
On 15 July European Commission has lodged case against Hungary over its LGBTQ laws. Hungary under its “Anti-Pedophilia Act,” does not allow young people to access any data relating to LGBTQ. The Hungarian Parliament passed a bill to amend the provision on ban on sex education and media related info, but prime minister Victor Orban has restricted the bill to come into practise. Hence the EU has filed a suit stating: “The Commission considers that the law violates the internal market rules, the fundamental rights of individuals (in particular LGBTQ people) as well as EU values.” (“EU Commission sues Hungary over LGBTQ law,” Deutsche Welle, 15 July 2022)
 
Migrants crossing from West Africa into Europe found by IOM
On 15 July, the International Organization of Migration found West African migrants who were trying to cross into Libya from northern Niger. Since the vehicle was broken, the migrants were left stranded in the dessert. As per the stats, 29 men, 12 women, and three girls were in Dirkou town, in north-eastern Niger. Recently many such migrants from West Africa are found to be entering into Libya and Mediterranean Sea to get inside Europe. (“Stranded migrants rescued in Nigerien desert,” BBC, 15 July 2022)

 


15 July 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #254

Eurozone inflation: Three reasons | War in Ukraine: Day 141

Italy’s PM Draghi resigns albeit winning confidence vote; Human ashes unearthed from Soldau; EU bans fishing trawlers using Fly shooting method; Rishi Sunak leads Tory leadership contest

Photo : europa.eu/eurostat


Eurozone inflation: Three reasons
By Sai Pranav

On 01 July, the inflation rate rose to 8.6 per cent in June. The EU is suffering economically due to the covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The unpredictability and uncertainty of the war in Ukraine have caused a lot of setbacks to the economy of the euro group countries which led to a revision of the European Commission's forecast. "Recovery is very much underwear due to service sector" said European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde in June. This meant that the service sector is in more demand than goods. The stagnant growth of the economy and the inflation in the Eurozone is predicted to slow down after 2022.
 
Three Implications
First, EU’s dependency over Russian energy. Europe was the largest importer of Russian oil and gas until the war began and sanctions game set in by the EU and the US on Russia. The oil embargo on energy imports from Russia and its response through cut off gas and oil supply to the nations that depended on it. EU member states dependent on Russian energy are facing the brunt to find alternates for Russian energy which has led to rise in energy prices. Along with large economies such as Germany and Italy, the Baltic countries Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia economies have also been affected resulting in an 18 to 21 per cent rise in inflation rate.
 
Second, war induced rise in food prices. The existing food crisis from the pandemic intensified with Ukraine war. With Russia holding back more than 30 per cent of wheat exports and blocking Ukraine ports from sending the agriculture supplies to rest of world has caused price hike in food, reflecting in Eurozone.
 
Third, the falling rate of the euro. The euro is in parity with the dollar and is falling rapidly due to the Ukraine war. The increase in energy prices, food pricing, and cost of living have contributed to the drop in the euro's rate. The European Central Bank (ECB) is looking to increase its interest rate by 25 points. This is the first time in 11 years that ECB is increasing the interest rate. It has predicted the inflation rate to ease by 2023 and 2024, but with the Ukraine war and search for energy alternative prolonging the Eurozone economies will face the challenge to keep up with the inflation.
 
References
"Eurozone inflation soars to record 8.6% in June," Deutsche Welle, 01 July 2022
Johanna Treeck, "Eurozone new inflation record adds pressure on ECB," POLITICO, 01 July 2022
Douglas Fraser, "The effect of war on food prices," BBC News, 07 March 2022
Richard Partington, "Inflation in eurozone hits record 8.6% as Ukraine war continues," the Guardian, 01 July 2022
"What a sinking euro means for consumers in Europe and US," Deutsche Welle, 12 July 2022
"Worried about a US or eurozone recession? 5 things that can offer hope," Deutsche Welle, 06 July 2022
"EU seeks urgent solution amid Russian 'weaponization' of gas," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022
Daniel Gros, "An Inflation-Adjusted Social Contract for Europe," Project Syndicate, 08 July 2022
"Overview," ecb.europa.ea
Melissa Eddy, "Eurozone inflation rises to 8.6 percent, the highest ever, driven by energy prices.," NY Times, 01 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 141
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 14 July, Kyiv Post reported that there was an overnight missile attack in Mykolaiv, where a business centre and two educational institutions were targeted. Shelling also took place in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Missile attacks were reported in Kramatorsk, Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Moreover, fighting continued in the Luhansk region.
  
President Zelenskyy criticised the recent Russian attacks and said that they once again proved that they are a “terrorist state.” He said: “No other state in the world allows itself to destroy peaceful cities and ordinary human life with cruise missiles and rocket artillery every day.” 
 
At the International Conference in The Hague, Zelenskyy referred to the “war crimes, crimes against humanity, the crime of genocide” committed by Russia in Ukraine and said that all perpetrators must be punished by law. To aid the investigation of the same, Ukraine will be launching the "Book of Torturers of the Ukrainian People" project. The project will be collecting evidence and data of war crimes. However, he mentioned that the current institution will not be enough but a Special Tribunal needed to be set up for the same.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 14 July, President Vladimir Putin signed a law, which will disallow Russia’s private companies to refuse military contracts. The law specifically mentions the purchase of goods and services for army use and stockpiling of raw materials and semi-finished goods. This legislation will ensure that the Russian Armed Forces are properly equipped to carry out counter-terrorism and other military operations.
 
Putin also signed another bill into law, which allows Russia to retaliate against countries banning Russian media. As per the bill, the prosecutor-general and deputies will be able to withdraw the registrations and terminate the licenses of those media outlets in the country.. Prior to law, only the courts had the power to do the same. Further, another law signed by the president expanded the definition of “foreign agents”. The list of any people or organisations who have worked with or received funding from foreign agents will be included in a new Justice Ministry list. According to the law, Russia’s state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor will now be able to block “foreign agent” websites at the Justice Ministry’s request without a court order. The law comes into force from 01 December, 2022.
 
On the same day, the head of Zaphorizhzhya’s military-civilian administration, Yevgeny Balitsky, said that the region will hold a referendum about joining Russia in the coming days. He mentioned that the procedure for the referendum needed to be fixed and the ballot paper for the same would be printed soon. 70 per cent of Zaphorizhzhya region is under Russia while the main city is still under Kyiv’s control.
 
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Vershinin said that Russia was not blocking any initiative to export Russia’s grains. However, he mentioned that in order to start trading Ukraine will have to clear their ports of mines.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 14 July, the European Union is set to deliberate on the seventh round of sanctions on Russia. The member states are expected to approve the same by next week. This new package is likely to include a ban on the import of Russia’s gold, which is the country’s biggest non-energy export. It might also widen a list of dual-use goods banned for export, and add to the list  of individuals facing sanctions. The Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that this package of sanctions will not curb the import of Russian gas, as that would destabilize too many countries at once.

In a recent forecast, the European Commission said that the inflation in the Eurozone is likely to reach a “historical high” of 7.6 per cent. EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said: "Russia's war against Ukraine continues to cast a long shadow over Europe and our economy.” The EU also reduced their growth forecasts for the Eurozone for the same reason. Brussels now forecasts growth of just 1.4 per cent in 2023, which is down from the previous estimate of 2.3 per cent.

The European Space Agency (ESA) reported that they will withdraw from a joint Russian-European rover mission to Mars. This is in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ESA chief Josef Aschbacher tweeted: “Council mandated me to officially terminate the currently suspended cooperation with [Russia’s space agency] Roscosmos on the ExoMars Rover and Surface Platform mission.”

The Republic of Ireland reported that they will use some military facilities to accommodate the Ukrainian people to arriving to the country. So far, around 250 people were housed in an old terminal building at Dublin Airport. However, from 18 July, the Gormanston Camp, in County Meath will become functional and will host up 320 people. Till date, there has been an influx of around 41,000 people fleeing the war.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 13 July, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva issued a warning about how the war in Ukraine will affect the global economic growth. She said that the global economic outlook "has darkened significantly". She mentioned how the restrictions on food exports worsening energy security in Europe, higher than expected inflation rate and the Covid pandemic are all drivers for this downgrading in economic growth.

14 July, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro said that he will present a solution to the Ukraine war to Zelenskyy scheduled for 18 July 2022. He referred to Argentina’s solution to the Falkland wars of 1982 and said that a similar framework can be adopted. 

References
Overnight Russian attacks partly destroy business center in Mykolaiv, hit Kharkiv,” Kyiv Post, 14 July 2022
Missile attack on Vinnytsia: Number of hospitalized rises to 71,” Ukrinform, 14 July 2022
Twenty-three civilians reported killed in Russia’s missile attack on Vinnytsia,” Ukrinform, 14 July 2022
This day once again proved that Russia must be recognized as a terrorist state - address by the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 14 July 2022
All Russian criminals must face a mandatory and principled punishment - President's speech at the International Conference in The Hague on holding Russia accountable for crimes in Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 14 July 2022
“Over 20 evacuation requests received from Ukraine in past day — defense ministry,” TASS, 14 July 2022
Zaporozhye Region to come up with procedure for referendum to join Russia next week,” TASS, 14 July 2022
New Russian law obliges domestic firms to support military,” RT, 14 July 2022
Putin signs media discrimination tit-for-tat law,” RT, 14 July 2022
Putin Signs Expanded ‘Foreign Agents’ Law,” The Moscow Times, 14 July 2022
No obstacles on Russia’s part to export of Ukrainian grain — Russian senior diplomat,” TASS, 14 July 2022
Alexandra Brzozowski, “A preview of EU’s seventh sanctions package on Russia, to be agreed by next week,” Euractiv, 14 July 2022
Robert Muller and Jason Hovet “Gas won't make EU's next Russian sanctions package, Czech leader says,” Reuters, 14 July 2022
Europe Aborts Joint Mars Mission With Russia,” The Moscow Times, 14 July 2022
Larry Elliott, “Russian war slowing growth and hiking inflation, European Commission warns,” The Guardian, 14 July 2022
Ukrainian refugees to be housed in Irish military camp,” BBC News, 14 July 2022
Jonathan Josephs, “IMF warns of 'darkening' global economic outlook,” BBC News, 14 July 2022
Neil Peay, “Bolsonaro says he will give Zelensky the solution to the Ukraine war,” The Catholic Transcript, 15 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Selva Royan

ITALY
President reduces to accept Draghi’s resignation amid political and economic crisis
On 15 July, the prime minister Mario Draghi announced his resignation due to a political crisis. However, president Sergio Mattarella said he would not accept Draghi's resignation. The president’s office stated that Mattarella "did not accept the resignation and invited the prime minister to appear before Parliament to give a speech." Draghi won a no-confidence vote in the Senate, but the future of his administration remained in doubt as a result of the populist 5-Star Movement (5SM), a significant coalition ally, abstaining from the vote. Draghi won the vote 172-39, but the 5SM boycott represented a clear threat to his government. Draghi had clearly stated that 5SM was a coalition partner in his unity government and that he had no intention of governing without them. Mattarella has avoided a catastrophic political disaster by rejecting Draghi's resignation while Italy battles significant debt issues, a terrible drought, and rising energy costs as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (“Italy: President rejects PM Mario Draghi′s resignation,” Deutsche Welle, 14 July 2022)

POLAND
Tonnes of human ashes unearthed in former Nazi camp Soldau
On 15 July, a mass burial containing 17.5 tonnes of human ashes was discovered in the Nazi concentration camp of Soldau in northern Poland. Tomasz Jankowski from Poland's national memorial institute stated that there were at least 8,000 victims in the cemetery. It is believed that the Nazis torched the bodies after digging them up to cover up the evidence of their deaths.  At Soldau, the Nazis killed Jews, political opponents, and Polish aristocracy. The concentration camp was constructed in 1939 and utilised during the Nazi occupation for transit, detention, and extermination. It is estimated that up to 30,000 individuals were slaughtered there, and experts aim to use DNA analysis to learn more about the deaths. Numerous remnants of clothing, buttons, and other objects have been discovered by archaeologists, but nothing valuable has been discovered, indicating that the victims were looted before being set ablaze. (Paul Kirby, “Nazi Soldau: Ashes of 8,000 victims found in mass grave in Poland,” BBC, 14 July 2022)

SWEDEN
Stockholm convicts Iranian accused of war crimes in 1998
On 14 July, a former Iranian official, Hamid Nouri was convicted of war crimes by the supreme court of Sweden in connection with the 1988 mass killings of political prisoners in Iran. Nouri was accused by Swedish prosecutors of committing war crimes and murder between July and September 1988, while they claimed he was working as the deputy prosecutor's assistant at Karaj's Gohardasht jail. Nouri was given a life sentence for his alleged major role in the murder of several opposition individuals. Iran referred to the verdict as "political." In 2019, Nouri was detained after taking a flight to Sweden, and he was tried under the doctrine of universal jurisdiction. He was the first to be charged with taking part in the executions. (David Gritton, “Swedish court convicts Iranian ex-official over 1988 executions,” BBC, 14 July 2022)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak leads the conservative party’s contest for prime ministership
On 14 July, in the second round of the Tory leadership contest the attorney general, Suella Braverman was eliminated, leaving five candidates standing. Rishi Sunak received 101 votes, Penny Mordaunt gained support by receiving 83 votes, and Liz Truss received 64 votes to finish third. Former Brexit minister Steve Baker has also endorsed Truss, and the majority of the 27 Conservative members of parliament who supported Braverman are reportedly planning to follow suit. Both Tom Tugendhat, head of the foreign affairs committee, who finished sixth with 32 votes, and Kemi Badenoch, a former equalities minister, say they are committed to continuing the race. On 18 July, the contender with the fewest votes will be eliminated in the next round of voting. (Tory leadership race: Rishi Sunak leads pack in tightening contest,” BBC, 15 July 2022)

REGIONAL
EU bans fly shooting method of fishing 
On 14 July, the European Parliament voted to outlaw "fly shooting" fishing in French territorial waters in the English Channel. The decision favors small-scale fishermen. Organizations that represent coastal fishing communities on both sides of the English Channel have issued warnings that fly-shooting and other industrial trawling techniques are destroying both the marine ecosystem and their livelihoods. The members of parliament stated that the decision delivered a crucial message to decision-makers about the impact of fly-shooting on coastal fishing communities. The European Commission, the European Parliament, and the EU member states will now deliberate the vote on a change to the common fisheries policy including access to territorial seas. In 2021, the UK was charged with allowing fishing vessels "unfettered access" to the English Channel without properly evaluating the impact on fish, the seabed, or the livelihoods of coastal residents. (Karen McVeigh, “European parliament votes to ban 'fly shooting' fishing in part of Channel,” the Guardian, 14 July 2022)

Denmark censured by the EU for advertising the Greek label ‘fete’
On 14 July, the European Court of Justice reprimanded Denmark for allowing local businesses to market cheese outside the EU under the label "feta." In a victory for Greece, ECJ declared that Denmark had "failed to fulfill its obligations under EU law" by "failing to stop the use of the designation 'feta' for cheese intended for export to third countries." Greece wants to maintain sole ownership of the title since it considers feta to be a part of its cultural heritage. It claims to have been producing the brined white cheese made from sheep's milk or a blend of goat's and sheep's milk for 6,000 years. Denmark was told by the ECJ to stop using the classification immediately, or the European Commission could reappear in court to demand monetary penalties. However, Denmark was praised by the court for its earnest cooperation in the matter. (“′Feta′ is Greek, EU top court rules, stopping Denmark from using designation,” BBC, 14 July 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Use of Satellite images and ground data predicts amount of harvest
On 15 July, BBC reported on the analysis shared by Kayrros and EarthDaily on the health of crops worldwide.  The analysis uses satellite images to determine the crops health by calculating how much infrared light the plants reflect back. The study examined data from satellite photographs, which can reveal a plant's health by measuring the amount of infrared light it reflects back at the satellites' cameras. The probable harvest is then shown by cross-referencing that data with information on the weather and soil moisture. BBC examined this data and discovered that the major wheat producing countries will be producing less than usual because of unfavorable weather. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that prices for wheat are reducing marginally as harvests begin but are still 48.5 per cent higher than they were at this time in 2021. (Stephanie Hegarty, “Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest,” BBC, 15 July 2022)

 


14 July 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #253

Italy’s drought condition | War in Ukraine: Day 140

Rishi Sunak leads UK’s prime minister race; Euro falls below the dollar; Iceland tops World Economic Forum list with least gender gap; Wildfires range across Europe

Photo : The Guardian


Italy’s drought condition: Causes, state response and international stance
By Emmanuel Selva Royan

On 05 July, Italy declared a state of emergency in five northern regions. Which include Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont, and Veneto. The droughts in the Po River and eastern Alpine basins have triggered the announcement. The president of the Italian Meteorological Society, Luca Mercalli, stated: “This drought is unique in history due to the combination of two anomalies – the lack of rain, on top of the elevated temperature, which is directly linked to climate change.”

River Po and its drought condition
Italy’s longest river Po flows 650 kilometers from the snowy Alps in the northwest to the Po Delta in the east before pouring out into the Adriatic Sea. The large stream provides nourishment for northern Italy's vast, lush plains. These flat, crop-covered areas, known as Italy's breadbasket, provide almost 40 per cent of the country's GDP. However, most of the regions of this river have dried up. The water from the Po River is utilized to irrigate rice fields, and cow grazing lands, some of whose milk is used to produce the highly regarded Parmigiano Reggiano cheese. Half of the livestock in the Po Valley, where Parma ham is made, are in danger due to the drought. The drought has decreased hydroelectric power generation. Nearly 20 per cent of Italy's energy is produced by hydroelectric plants, the majority of which are found in the north. The saline waters of the Adriatic Sea have seeped 12 miles into the basin as there is no stream present to push it back into the ocean. The country is currently experiencing a severe heatwave, and there has been around 50 per cent less rain than 2021.

Causes of the draught
The primary cause of drought in Italy is claimed to be climate change. The previous winter temperatures experienced an anomaly of 2.1 degree Celsius and an average precipitation deficit of 65 per cent. Together with the mild winter temperatures, the lack of precipitation resulted in poor snow accumulation, low soil moisture, and low water levels in lakes and reservoirs. Researchers indicate that such a combination of mild and dry winter has not occurred in Lombardy, Piedmont and southern Switzerland in the past 30 years.

State response
The declaration of a state of emergency gives the government "extraordinary means and powers" to intervene to ensure public safety. The government had also released EUR 36.5 million to the affected regions in the north. The Po River District Basin authority reduced water withdrawals for agriculture by 20 per cent, and a hydroelectric power plant in Emilia Romagna region has been shut down since there is not enough water to produce electricity. At the municipal level, the local authorities have prohibited using water for activities such as washing vehicles, watering plants, and cleaning outdoor patio areas. In order to raise reservoir levels, Utilitalia, a union of water providers, have asked for the overnight suspension of drinking water supply in 125 towns in 100 Piedmont and Bergamo province in Lombardy.
 
Italy's stance in international climate goals
Italy’s recovery and resilience plan “Piano di Ripresa e Resilienza,” which is a five-year plan, does not align with the EU 2030 climate goals. Its national objective is to lower emissions 38 per cent, below 2005 levels by 2030.  Italy's score for adoption readiness in 2018 was just slightly below the G20 average. Although there are still difficulties with adaptation, Italy's energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. In 2020, 18 per cent of all primary energy consumption was made up of renewable energy, which has been steadily rising in recent years. However, the carbon intensity of the energy mix has barely altered during the past two decades, notwithstanding the rise in renewable energy.

References
Drought emergency declared in northern Italy,” BBC News, 05 July 2022
The longest river in Italy is drying up. What does this mean for those who rely on it for food?,” Euronews, 20 June 2022
Drought in northern Italy - March 2022: GDO analytical report,” European Commission “Italy,Climate Transparency report: Comparing G20 climate action towards Net Zero,” Climate Transparency, 2021


War in Ukraine: Day 140
By Padmashree Anandhan
 
War on the Ground
On 13 July, defence ministries from Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and UN representative met for first time since march directly to discuss the exporting of grains through the Black Sea from Ukraine in Istanbul. According to the Ministry of National Defense of Turkey: “ The four-way meeting between the military delegations of the defense ministries of Turkey, the Russian Federation and Ukraine with the delegation of the United Nations regarding the safe transportation by sea of grain and foodstuff waiting in Ukrainian ports has ended," So far there has no update on the reached agreements.
 
The Ukrainian World Congress (UWC) along with Ukrainian Canadian Congress has urged the Government of Canada to put down the waiver given to Siemens Canada which acts as a way for the Nord Stream 1 turbines into Germany. According to President and CEO of the Ukrainian World Congress, Paul Grod, "Canada’s decision to break sanctions and send the Siemens’ turbine back to Russia is a grave mistake with dire consequences."
 
On 13 July, Ukraine government has called Lithuania to involve their businesses to restore Ukraine economy. So far 614 investment projects have been promised to upscale larger reconstruction projects in Ukraine. This is mainly to help stabilize Ukraine's economy in the post-war period.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 

On 13 July, Russia reported on shelling southern port city of Mykolaiv. It claimed for killing dozens of soldiers and success in the Donetsk region. It also confirmed on entering two towns of Soledar and Siversk, to the north of Bakhmut.

On 13 July, RT reported that Russia had agreed for cooperation to support the grain exports in Turkey. According to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar: “An agreement has been reached on technical issues such as joint controls at the destination points and the safety of navigation on the transfer routes,” Akar told journalists. Russian and Ukrainian delegations “should meet again in Turkey next week.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 13 July, the German government revealed a list of weapons and equipment systems which have been supplied to Ukraine till now. In the report released: "In 2022 Germany has increased its funds for security capacity building to 2 billion Euros. These additional funds are primarily dedicated to Ukraine as well as German contributions to the European Peace Facility, from which the cost of military support measures for Ukraine can be reimbursed to EU member states." The weapon systems included M113 armored personnel carriers, COBRA radar systems, and MARS multiple rocket launchers.
 
On 13 July, Deputy Prime Minister of Poland and Minister of National Defence, Mariusz Blaszczak visited Irpin town in Ukraine where mass killing have been recorded and in the statement he said that the brutal post-war scenario was brutal and shocking. He said: "These are the bloody crimes of the Russians who must be punished. I am proud of Ukrainian defenders who liberated Irpin and, in general, of all military personnel who are currently defending Ukraine.”
 
On 13 July, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Russia to stop its infiltration operations in the eastern Ukraine. As per the recent report from Blinken, close to 1.6 million people were forcibly deported into Russia and were put through torture and evidences have been found on the same. Although Russia has rejected the report, Blinken termed them as war crimes for transferring people illegally, breaching the fourth Geneva Convention.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 July, Iran’s foreign ministry has rejected the accusations by the US on selling drones to Russia. The ministry released a statement confirmed that the drone cooperation between Russia and Iran has been persisting before the start of Ukraine war.

North Korea’s foreign minister Choe Son-hui announced the government decision to recognize the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). According to Choe: “expressed the intention of the government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to develop the state-to-state relations with the countries in accordance with the idea of independence, peace, and friendship.” North Korea will be the third country followed by Russia and Syria to recognize the regions. In response the Ukraine government have announced to cut their diplomatic relations with North Korea.
 
References
If we manage to remove the Russian threat to navigation in the Black Sea, it will remove the severity of the world food crisis - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 13 July 2022
Russia-Ukraine grain talks outcome revealed,” RT, 13 July 2022
Military support for Ukraine,” bundesregierung.de, 13 July 2022
Ji Da-gyum, "N.Korea recognizes two Russian-backed breakaway regions in Ukraine: state media," Koreanherald, 14 July 2022
Paul Kirby “Ukraine round-up: Claims of forced deportations and grain talks take place,” BBC, 13 July 2022
Polish defense minister visits Irpin,” Ukrinform, 13 July 2022
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman reacts to claims by US national security advisor,” Islamic Republic of Iran, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 12 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Selva Royan

FRANCE
Paris celebrates La fête nationale
On 14 July, Paris celebrates Bastille day commemorating the beginning of the French republic. It also coincides with the anniversary of the storming of the Bastille on 14 July 1789, which housed prisoners who had rebelled against the monarch or queen over socioeconomic reasons. However, the French do not call it the Bastille Day, because the date marks the beginning of the Federation of France in 1790, one year following the fall of the Bastille. As stated in the national anthem La Marseillaise, it is a day when the French celebrate liberté, fraternité, and égalité. For them, the day coinciding with the storming of the Bastille prison is a coincidence. The storming of the Bastille, a French prison, on 14 July 1789, gave rise to the term Bastille Day. This prison was well-known in Paris and represented royal power. An important development in the French Revolution was the decision to storm it. The official name of Bastille Day in France is La fête nationale, however Le quatorze juillet is more often used by them. (Amy Willis, “How to say ‘Happy Bastille Day’ in French and the history of the holiday,” metro.uk, 14 July 2022)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak tops first vote for prime minister race
On 13 July, the UK conducted their first round of voting to select Boris Johnson’s successor as the leader of the conservative party and the prime minister. Eight candidates were shortlisted before the vote. However, two candidates, Finance minister Nadhim Zahawi and former cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt were eliminated from the race. Former finance minister, Rishi Sunak received the most votes in the first round with 88 votes. He was followed by junior trade minister Penny Mordaunt on 67 and foreign Secretary Liz Truss who got 50 votes. The next round will be conducted on 14 July, and again next week, if required. (Jill Lawless, “UK Conservatives cast votes in 1st round of leadership race,” AP News, 13 July 2022; “Rishi Sunak tops first round of voting in UK leadership contest,” Reuters, 13 July 2022)

REGIONAL
European Commission’s annual report criticises Poland and Hungary
On 13 July, the European Commission released their annual report, which said that Poland and Hungary have failed to improve the rule of law situation in their countries. The EU recently approved Warsaw’s pandemic recovery plan to catalyse changes, but the issues have not been addressed to EU’s liking. Poland now faces a daily fine of EUR one million as imposed by the European Court of Justice. The European Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders however said that the goal is not the fine, but rather the implementation of the requirements of the Court of Justice. Hungary too was criticised in the report. Corruption, lack of press freedom and excessive emergency powers of the Orbán government remain major concerns for Brussels. (Aida Sanchez Alonso, Poland & Hungary in European Commission's rule of law spotlight againEuronews, 13 July 2022)

For the first time in 2 decades, euro values at less than the dollar
On 13 July it was reported that the Euro fell below the dollar in valuation for the first time in 20 years. One euro bought USD 0.998 on foreign exchange market, which was down by 0.4 per cent in the day’s trading. The falling currency might lead to higher inflation in the Eurozone, which in June was already at 8.6 per cent. With the latest tumble, the Euro has fallen 12 per cent against the dollar since the beginning of 2022. Fears about Russia stopping Europe’s energy supply has exacerbated the chances of recession in the Eurozone, and has further weakened the Euro. (Ben King, “Euro falls below dollar for first time in 20 years,” BBC News, 13 July 2022)

Nordic countries dominate gender parity list by World Economic Fourm
On 13 July, the World Economic Forum released their Global Gender Gap Report 2022. It states that to reach gender parity the world will need 132 years, as only 68 per cent of the gap has been closed so far. For the 12th year in a row, Iceland has been named the most gender equal country out of the 146 economies, where 90 per cent of the gap has been closed. The other Nordic countries Finland, Norway and Sweden dominate the top five, and Ireland stands at the 9th position. Only four countries in the top 10 are outside Europe: New Zealand (4th), Rwanda (6th), Nicaragua (7th) and Namibia (8th). (“Gender gap: These are the world’s most gender-equal countries,” World Economic Forum, 13 July 2022)

CLIMATE
Firefighters struggle to curb wildfires across Europe
On 13 July, several wildfires were reported across Europe, especially in Portugal, Spain and France. This is the result of a continuous heatwave that has been prevailing over parts of Europe. More than 20 blazes raged on in Portugal and western Spain. 2841 firefighters and 860 vehicles were on ground in Portugal, where the most important highway connecting Lisbon to Porto was blocked due to a blaze. In southwest France, hundreds of firefighters, along with six water-bomber aircrafts helped to evacuate thousands of campers and control two wildfires in the Gironde region. (Catarina Demony and Miguel Pereira, “Scorching heat wave sparks wildfires in Europe,” Reuters, 14 July 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ESA launches its first Vega-C rocket into space to deliver satellites
On 13 July, the European Space Agency’s Vega-C rocket was lifted up to space from the French Guiana launch pad to deliver seven satellites to the orbit. Vega-C is a single body rocket that is 35 meters tall and weighs 210 tonnes. It has the capacity to launch around 2200 kilograms into a 700 kilometer polar orbit. The director general of the ESA, Josef Aschbacher "The launch demand in Europe in the next couple of years and beyond is going to be high, and Vega-C and Ariane-6 are going to be our workhorses." Vega-C will be able to carry a variety of payloads, from several small satellites weighing as little as one kilogramme up to a single huge payload, using a new range of payload carriers. Vega- C's capabilities will be expanded by incorporating in-orbit operations and return missions using the fully integrated Space Rider vehicle. (Jonathan Amos, “Successful debut flight for Europe's Vega-C rocket,” BBC news, 13 July 2022)

 


13 July 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #252

Who are the eight candidates heading towards the leader contest? | War in Ukraine: Day 139

Croatia to adopt Euro from 2023; Ireland extends all island healthcare policy to a year; The EU revised it's economic prediction for the year and the next

Photo : NIAS Europe Studies Team/ UK Government


Who are the eight candidates heading towards the Conservative leader contest?
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 12 July, the first round of voting for choosing UK’s prime minister ended shortlisting eight contenders to go forward for the second round after getting back by 20 members of parliament. To choose the new party leader of the conservatives the selected candidates will now have to 36 or more votes to qualify for the postal vote from which the leader will be chosen. At the end of first round, Grant Shapps, Sajid Javid, and Rehman Chishti have dropped out due to short of votes.
 
Profile of the eight candidates
Kemi Badenoch, former equalities minister
On 08 June, former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch announced her decision to compete for the UK leadership. Badenoch comes from London and spent her childhood in the US and Nigeria. She was elected as Member of Parliament in 2017 and has performed different roles as part of the cabinet, which includes being the spokesperson for the economy under GLA Conservatives. Although her growth did not evolve in the government, being a former levelling up and equalities minister has stood for Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities (Cred) report, criticisms against government being oppressive on minorities, culture wars, and defended Boris Johnson on handling Brexit, and COVID-19. In her bid to the leadership, she has vowed to focus on UK’s net zero climate target, and lowering of taxes.
 
Suella Braverman, attorney-general
Suella Braverman, who comes from Indian origin and based in London is one of the strongest contenders in the list and has a long-standing specialization in public law and judicial review. She worked as the Attorney General’s Panel of Treasury Counsel where she helped the Home Office in immigration, Brexit, Parole Board problems posed by prisoners, and Ministry of Defence in issues relating to continued injuries in the battle. In terms with previous government, she is sighted as one of the loyalists and has promised to bring a “low-tax state,” cutting down energy VAT, and to bring spendings under control. Her stance on climate crisis stands firms as she believes pledging for net zero target and climate action as far-fetched aim.
 
Jeremy Hunt, former health secretary
Jeremy Hunt became the Conservative MP in 2005 for South West Surrey. Starting his role as a Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport, was first selected as Secretary of State for Health in 2012, and later served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care in 2018. He has a record of losing close to Johnson in the previous voting rounds in the conservative party and has been criticized for “delivery style” by the party members. Hunt has pledged for lowering taxes but for businesses, raising national insurance limit and increase defence expenditure to 2.5 per cent of GDP. On the climate issue, as a foreign secretary Hunt was on the front for the UK’s climate change.

Penny Mordaunt, trade minister
Penny Mordaunt, who was a former governor at the World Bank, has held several positions in the parliament since 2014 as minister of local government, armed forces, Disabled People, Health and Work. She has also been appointed as Secretary of State for International Development, Defence and was also posted as Paymaster General to head the resilience and build UK’s defence in cyber security. Comparing the current government, Mordaunt has been a critic throughout and believes her leadership will unite the segmented Conservative party. Some of the key position held by Mordaunt will functioning as first female defence secretary. After Rishi Sunak she has the second biggest count of supporters in the party. Being positioned as an equalities minister and then shifted to trade minister, has always focused on gender issues and is a supporter of trans rights.

Rishi Sunak, former chancellor
Rishi Sunak, one of the prominent candidates amongst the competitors to replace Johnson. The reputation comes due to his impressive role in pandemic, on the other hand few party member are divided over his unpopularity in the economic side which questions his leadership of the party. He comes from a business and finance background, his political career started when he was elected as conservative member of parliament in 2015 and gradually moving up the ladder to become Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 2019, and Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2022. Unlike others, he has not mentioned on the tax cuts and perceived to be resistant towards climate action. With regards to the former leader, has worked as close member of the party until his resignation.
 
Liz Truss, foreign secretary
Liz Truss, one of the longest members of the conservative party with a record of holding positions in government since 2012. She became the party’s member for south west Norfolk in 2010 and held a range of roles in the parliament from being Secretary of State for Education and Childcare, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade, Minister for Women and Equalities, to becoming Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs. Her political career has shot at a fast pace along with forming a strong base in the party. She has focused her leadership bid on “libertarian ideals or Thatcherism,” Similar to Rishi Sunak, she did not pledge for climate commitments when she held the trade minister post.

Tom Tugendhat, foreign affairs select committee chair
Tom Tugendhat has been a well-known critic of Johnson in the party and similar to Truss became the parliament member in 2010. Although did not have a rapid development like Truss, was positioned as chair of the foreign affairs select committee in 2017. He is expected to focus on cutting fuel taxes, “victim culture, and climate emergency” as key debate points in contest for leadership.
 
Nadhim Zahawi, chancellor
Nadhim Zahawi is the last contender in the list with least political experience. He was seen as a probable replacement, due to his fast development under Johnson’s lead, first a vaccines minister, to education secretary. Of all the competitors Zahawi is expected to be the most prepared with a team to run for the leadership. He has pledged for reviewing of UK’s corporate tax policy, children education and climate change.

References
Tobi Thomas and Andrew Sparrow, "Tory leadership: candidates will need 20 MP backers to enter contest to succeed Boris Johnson – as it happened," The Guardian, 11 July 2022 
Sebastian Payne, "Who will replace Boris Johnson as UK prime minister?," ft, 07 July 2022
"The Rt Hon Suella Braverman QC MP," GOV.UK, 13 July 2022
"The Rt Hon Jeremy Hunt MP," GOV.UK, 13 July 2022
Charley Adams, "Kemi Badenoch launches bid to be Conservative leader," BBC, 10 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 139
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 12 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Poland’s deputy prime minister and minister of national defence, Mariusz Błaszczak. He thanked Poland for their continuous support to Ukraine and Ukraine’s army. Zelenskyy also said that he was certain that Poland and Ukraine’s post-war relations would develop further.
 
Zelenskyy has ordered the Prime Minister Denys Shmyal to consider establishing a mandatory examination for acquiring Ukrainian citizenship. This move comes after a petition about the same by Vitali Kapustian secured 26,586 votes, saying that an estimated 520,000 Russians had illegally immigrated to Ukraine since 2014.
 
On 12 July, Ukraine’s military reported that they had hit Russia’s forces and military equipment in Nova Kakhovka city in southern Ukraine. They used advanced HIMARS mobile artillery system supplied by Washington to carry out the long range rocket strike. The strike resulted in hundreds of munitions being detonated, the breaking out of massive fires and the death of at least seven people.
 
On the same day, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported that the army had suppressed Russia’s attempted assault operations in Dementiivka in Kharkiv. Heavy shelling was reported in Sumy region and Sloviansk. Russia is also attempting to improve their tactical position in Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions through systematic firings. 
 
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also said that between 24 February and 12 July, an estimated 37,470 Russian soldiers have been killed by Ukraine’s forces. An elaborate list of approximate losses endured by Russia was also released. It said that Ukrainian defenders has destroyed about 1,649 Russian tanks, 3,829 armored fighting vehicles, 838 artillery systems, 247 multiple launch rocket systems and 2,699 other vehicles and tanker trucks amongst countless other air defence systems, warplanes, helicopters, cruise missiles, and warships.
 
In Telegram post, Mykolaiv mayor, Oleksandr Sienkevych said that Russia’s rockets have hit two medical facilities and residential buildings. Reportedly, amidst heavy shelling in the region, 4 people were injured.
 
On 12 July, Kyiv Post reported about Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food ministry’s announcement about Ukrainian farmers bringing in the first million tons of the new harvest. The announcement was made on 08 July and said that the harvest of grains, legumes and winter wheat has been collected from 417,300 hectares of land in the country.
 
Also on 12 July, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service’s department in the Donetsk region reported on the death toll from the Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Chasiv Yar. They said that 45 dead bodies have been pulled from the rubble so far.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 July, the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mizintsev, said that over 270 tonnes of humanitarian cargo has been delivered to Donetsk People’s Republic. This was done through five humanitarian operations in the region. Mizintsev, who also heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine said that more than 22,000 people have been evacuated from Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) to Russia. Reportedly, 4,433 private cars also crossed into Russia from Ukraine.
 
On the same day, Mizintsev spoke about mine disposal in the DPR and LPR regions. He reported that a total of 3,856.42 hectares have been covered, including 35 buildings, 13 important facilities, two bridges and 9.64 kilometers of motorways. Allegedly, 54,690 explosive objects have been found and destroyed.
 
The head of the Kharkiv region's interim civil administration Vitaly Ganchev said that the grain exported from Kharkiv were all based on contracts. He clarified that the sale of the same had been negotiated with the farmers in a process overseen by the interim civil administration.
 
Amidst wider crackdowns on western tech companies, a court in Moscow fined US tech giant Apple for not storing personal data belonging to Russia’s citizens on Russia-based servers. The fine has been set at RUB two million. Russia has already banned Facebook and Instagram as “extremist” organizations” and blocked Twitter too.
 
On 12 July, the world’s largest toy-making company from Denmark, Lego announced that they will stop operating in Russia. The company had partnered with Inventive Retail Group which operated 81 stores on the brand's behalf, but now the collaboration will be terminated.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 July, EU’s Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said that so far the EU has frozen EUR 13.8 billion worth of assets belonging to Russian oligarchs and other individuals with ties to Moscow. On 11 July, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson reported that more than three million Ukrainian refugees from Ukraine in the EU have returned to their homeland.
 
The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan spoke at a press briefing about the possibility of Iran supplying Russia with “several hundred UAVs, on an expedited timeline.” This statement comes in the background of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s scheduled visit to Tehran next week. Moreover, the US treasury announced that it will send an additional USD 1.7 billion in economic aid to Ukraine. This aid will be to fund “essential services”. 
 
On the same day, Germany’s government discussed their plans to improve their cyber-security defences. The decision comes after several major cyberattacks have been traced to Russian intelligence-linked hackers. The new measures will require small- and medium-sized enterprises to up their cyber resilience, and also the introduction of a central video conferencing system for the federal government.
 
On 12 July, Turkey’s defence ministry announced that a meeting between Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and the UN has been fixed for 13 July in Istanbul. The military delegations from the three countries and a delegation from the UN will be discussing about a safe and smooth export corridor for Ukraine’e grains. This comes after Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan held phone conversations with Putin and Zelenskyy.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 July, an International Olympic Committee (IOC) member, Craig Reid warned that Russia and Belarus may not be allowed to compete in the Paris 2024 Games. The governing bodies of the individual sports had been warned in February to remove the athletes from these two countries, and a decision regarding the same will be taken soon. A former vice president of the IOC, Reed said: “A decision is going to have to be taken on what happens to each of these two countries, and my guess is that the general feeling would be that they should not qualify.”
 
On the same day, Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released a report regarding the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine. They said that since the beginning of the war, a total of a total of 5,024 have been killed and 6,520 have been injured. On 11 July, the UN announced that they will start monitoring the war in Ukraine, for violations against children, including killings, injuries, recruitment, rape and other forms of sexual violence.
 
References
Samantha Lock, “Russia-Ukraine war update: what we know on day 140 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 12 July 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense of Poland,” President of Ukraine, 12 July 2022
Ramsha Afridi, “Zelensky Orders PM to Consider Introducing Exam for Ukrainian Citizenship,” Kyiv Post, 12 July 2022
Stefan Korshak, “Ukraine long-range rockets hit Russian ammo depot in south, massive explosions and fires,” Kyiv Post, 12 July 2022
Ukraine Army firmly suppresses enemy attempts to conduct assault operations in Kharkiv direction,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
About 37,470 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine – General Staff,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
Chasiv Yar death toll reaches 35 – Emergency Service,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
New Ukrainian Wheat Crop Hits 1 mln tonnes, eases spiking prices,” Kyiv Post, 12 July 2022
Russian rockets hit two medical facilities, residential buildings in Mykolaiv,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
 “Over 270 tonnes of humanitarian cargoes delivered to DPR, Kharkov region in past day,” TASS, 12 July 2022
Over 22,000 people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia in past day,” TASS, 12 July 2022
Over 3,800 hectares cleared of mines by Russian specialists in Donbass — defense ministry,” TASS, 12 July 2022
Russian Court Fines Apple for Breaching Data Storage Rules,” The Moscow Times, 12 July 2022
Lego to Cease Russian Operations 'Indefinitely,' 81 Stores Impacted,” The Moscow Times, 12 July 2022
Grain from Kharkov region exported to Russia based on contracts — authorities,” TASS, 12 July 2022
EU has frozen 13.8 billion euros of Russian assets over Ukraine war, official says,” Reuters, 12 July 2022
EU official unveils how many millions of Ukrainians remain in Europe, how many went home,” TASS, 11 July 2022
Putin due in Tehran as US says Iran to supply drones to Russia,” The Guardian, 12 July 2022
Germany bolsters defenses against Russian cyber threats,” Deutsche Welle, 12 July 2022
Yesim Dikmen and Michelle Nichols, “Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, U.N. to meet Wednesday on grain exports,” Reuters, 12 July 2022
Olympics-Russia, Belarus athletes may face Paris 2024 ban: IOC's Reedie,” Reuters, 12 July 2022
Ukraine: civilian casualty update 12 July 2022,” Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 12 July 2022
UN to monitor Ukraine war for violations against children,” AP News, 12 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

IRELAND
Dublin extends cross-border health plan to a year
On 12 July, the Republic of Ireland extended the cross-border health scheme which was due to expire in June 2021 to another year. The scheme lets the people of Northern Ireland carry out their treatment in the Republic of Ireland. The country’s department of health has allocated EUR five million towards the Health Services Republic of Ireland Reimbursement Scheme. As per the scheme, patients from Northern Ireland can access private treatment across the border and get reimbursed from 80 to 50 per cent of their medical fees. The common treatments included in the scheme are orthopaedic surgery, cataract surgery and hernia repairs. ("Cross-border health scheme extended for year," BBC, 12 July 2022)

FRANCE
Abdeslam and 19 others rulings changed to permanent after failing to file appeals
On 12 July, the only remaining attacker from the 2015 Paris attacks, 32-year-old Salah Abdeslam has not appealed his life sentence. Abdeslam was the only surviving member of the 10 attackers who blew themselves up in an act of terrorism. Affiliated with the Islamic State group cell in Syria and Iraq, the group murdered 130 people in 2015 at the Bataclan concert hall and various other locations. The ruling has gained permanent status and there won't be an appeal trial anymore. Although Abdeslam pleaded not to put him in a life sentence, his request was ignored due to his clear involvement in the attack. He was later arrested four months after the attack in 2015 by the police force. ("Paris 2015 attacks verdict 'permanent' after Abdeslam, all 19 others decline to file appeals," France24, 12 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Euro falling to parity with the dollar for the first time in 20 years
On 12 July, the euro became equal to the dollar for the first time in twenty years. The last time the euro was valued less than the dollar was at the time of its nascent period. The euro has lost more than ten per cent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of 2022. The unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine has led an economic slump in the Eurozone nations. Supplies from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline have been cut off for 10 days of maintenance. This has further impacted the economy of the countries that depended on Russian gas amidst fear that the suspension would be permanent. The rising energy prices, cost of living crisis, and inflation will intensify further by the euro reaching parity with the dollar. (Johanna Treeck, "Euro falls to parity against the dollar, adding to inflation woes," POLITICO, 12 July 2022; Jorge Liboreiro, "Euro reaches parity with dollar for the first time in 20 years," euronews, 12 July 2022)

Croatia gets green light to switch to euro in 2023
On 12 July, Croatia was given final approval for changing its currency from kunas to the euro. Croatia would be the 20th country to adopt the euro after becoming a member of the EU less than a decade ago. The country will switch to the euro from 01 January 2023. Strict conditions were met by Croatia to fulfil the requirements to join the eurozone. Croatia joins the euro club amidst high inflation and the euro falling to parity with the dollar. The people of Croatia are also apprehensive of a hike in prices due to the sudden change in currencies. ("Croatia gets final approval to adopt euro in 2023," Deutsche Welle, 12 July 2022)

EU concerns over inflation, revise the economic forecast
On 11 July, the EU finance ministers of the Eurozone member nations prioritized tackling inflation. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years on July 21. Moreover, the European Commission revised its economic forecast due to issues like the Ukraine war, supply chain disruption and surging inflation. EU’s economic prediction had foreseen four per cent growth but the current expectation is 2.7 per cent. Annual inflation was forcasted to hit 3.5 per cent but it has reached up to 6.1 per cent, with the monthly inflation of June hitting a record 8.6 per cent. The increased food prices and cost of living crisis have also been prime factors for upward inflation.. ("EU slashes economic forecast, vows to fight inflation," Deutsche Welle, 11 July 2022)

 


12 July 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #251

Protests in North Macedonia: Three reasons | War in Ukraine: Day 138

Photo : AP Photo/Boris Grdanoski/File


Protests in North Macedonia: Three reasons
By Rishma Banerjee

On 02 July, thousands of people from North Macedonia began protesting in the streets of Skopje. Protestors threw rocks, petrol bombs and other objects at the police, and attacked government buildings like the parliament and the foreign ministry building. On 05 July, nearly 50 police officers were injured in violent clashes and on 06 July, the violence further escalated when Macedonians and ethnic Albanians clashed in Skopje. On the proposal, President Stevo said that it “…will be neither a historic triumph, as one camp would call it, nor a historic failure or debacle, as those in the other camp say.”
 
Reasons behind the protests
First, the French proposal induced protests. The European Union offered North Macedonia a set of specific terms to kick start the negotiations for accession. The proposal submitted by France envisages concessions for both Bulgaria and North Macedonia, where North Macedonia will be entitled to adopt major changes. It is because, one, they have to recognize Bulgarians as a minority as per the constitution. Two, the proposal contains a unilateral declaration which allows Bulgaria to claim the Macedonian language as a dialect of Bulgarian. Three, to resolve the historic issue, it mandates North Macedonia to recognize a medieval king as “Bulgarian.” Due to the resistance amongst the people to accept the proposed key conditions has resulted in protests.
 
Second, government stance on the proposal. The government has backed the proposal stating it will serve as base to initiate relations with Bulgaria and the proposal is yet to be passed in the parliament. Whereas, the centre-right main opposition party, the VMRO-DPMNE disagreed stating the deal favours Bulgaria and questions North Macedonia’s history, language, identity, culture and heritage. The differed stance of the government and support from the opposition party has been the trigger to the protests
 
Third, anti-sentiments against the EU. The public support for North Macedonia joining the EU has been low although the accession process has been slow. In February, the poll conducted by the Institute for Democracy "Societas Civiis" in Skopje showed that only 13 per cent still see the EU as “the biggest ally.” One of the reasons for the poll voting to reduce amongst the public is the Bulgaria problem and persisting fear of threat to North Macedonia’s interests.
 
References
Europe, US urge North Macedonia's parliament to move forward on EU bid,” AP News, 10 July 2022
Fatos Bytyci, “Protests block North Macedonia's capital over Bulgaria, EU compromise,” Reuters, 08 July 2022
North Macedonia: Thousands protest 'indecent' conditions of EU accession proposal,” Deutsche Welle, 08 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 138
By Emmanuel Selva Royan
 
War on the Ground
On 11 July, the prime minister of Netherlands Mark Rutte visited Kyiv to meet president Volodamyr Zelenskyy. Rutte assured Zelenskyy that his country will continue to support Ukraine politically, increase bilateral and multilateral cooperation and sanction Russia. 
 
The general staff of the armed forces reported that Ukraine army have effectively withstood an enemy assault on Krasnopillia and stopped Russia from trying to launch another onslaught towards Marinka, in the Donetsk Region. Russian soldiers opened fire around settlements like Kharkiv, Bazaliivka, Petrivka, Ruski Tyshky, Slatyne, Prudianka, Rubizhne, and Blahodatne using artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, and tanks.
 
The Ukrainian commissioner for missing individuals in Special circumstances, Oleh Kotenko stated that up to 7,200 Ukrainian army personnel have been missing since the Russian incursion began. Kotenko added that the Ukrainian military had previously reported 2,000 personnel missing. The National Guard, border guards, and the security service, he claimed, made up the substantially higher number. Kotenko, the commissioner for missing persons in Ukraine, stated: "Our call center registered about 7,200 people." He expressed his hope that they would be returned home and exchanged for Russian POWs "sooner or later."

The ministry of digital transformation of Ukraine reported that the information technology army targeted more than 800 websites. The private data of around 500,000 customers was stolen on Roseltorg, the largest electronic procurement platform in Russia and a joint venture between VTB Bank and the Moscow government.
 
Ukraine has condemned a recent law that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians living anywhere in the nation. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated that the directive "is another attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, incompatible with the norms and principles of international law."

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 11 July, a decree signed by president Vladimir Putin states that any native of Ukraine may now apply for Russian citizenship under a simplified process. Stateless people who reside permanently in Ukraine are also added by the law, as are residents of the two Donbass republics that Russia formerly recognized as separate states. Ukrainians can now submit the necessary application without having to meet the standard requirements for foreigners applying for Russian citizenship, such as living in Russia for five years, having a source of income, and passing a Russian language test.
 
On the same day, the State Duma has been presented with a bill that would confer the rank of veteran to Federal Security Service (FSB) agents who participated in repelling armed incursions into Russia during the special military operation in the Ukraine. The proposal in the document also calls for giving FSB personnel who became disabled as a result of wounds, concussions, injuries, or illnesses received while carrying out these missions the status of disabled individuals.
 
Also on 11 July, president Putin and president Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke over the phone. The two presidents talked on creating secure routes for grain exports by the Black Sea, the situation in Syria, the situation in Ukraine in light of Russian military operations. Erdogan urged Putin to implement the UN’s proposal to establish grain export lanes to address food shortage. In another telephone call with the president of  Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, Putin discussed the possible measures to be taken regarding the restriction of goods to Kaliningrad by Lithuania.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 11 July, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken announced that the US would allocate an additional USD 368 million to assist Ukrainian refugees. He stated that: “Our commitment to the people of Ukraine is resolute. The US is providing nearly $368 million in additional humanitarian aid to support people inside Ukraine and refugees forced to flee their country to seek safety in the midst of Russia’s brutal war.”
 
On the same day, the economy minister of Germany Robert Habeck and the Czech Republic’s Industry minister signed a declaration promising to reduce the dependency on Russian fuel and to rush the transition to low carbon energy. The declaration stated: “We are going to finalize the agreement on solidarity measures to safeguard the security of gas supply between our countries prior to the start of the upcoming winter season.” 
 
On 11 July, the Scottish government announced a three-month suspension of services for new visa applications for displaced Ukrainians effective from 13 July 2022. The suspension was required to guarantee safe accommodation to those who have already applied for a visa. Scotland is presently providing hospice for over 7000 people. Of which two-thirds are under the Scottish super sponsor scheme. This exceeds the government's commitment to receive 3000 refugees amid the war in Ukraine. 

Lithuania continues to restrict transportation of goods from Russia through its territory to Kaliningrad in spite of warnings from Moscow. Lituania Railways estimates that around 15 per cent of the 3.7 million tonnes of cargo which flowed from Russia to Kaliningrad in the initial months.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 11 July, the UN’s special representative of the secretary general on sexual violence in conflict, Pamila Patten stated that around 124 cases of sexual assault was reported since the start of Russian invasion in Ukraine. More than 8.72 million border crossings into Europe have been registered from Ukraine, a country with a pre-war population of around 40 million as reported by United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). According to the UNHCR portal, there are currently 5.56 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe.
 
On the same day, the EU home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson announced the establishment of a hub in Moldova to combat organized crime, including the smuggling of weapons from the Ukraine. The EU Support Hub for Internal Security and Border Management will concentrate on stopping weapons from leaving Ukraine and finding their way into criminal gangs, the majority of which are provided by NATO allies.
 
References
Ukraine and the Netherlands are willing to work jointly and effectively in the interests of the whole of Europe - President following the meeting with Mark Rutte in Kyiv,” president.gov.ua, 11 July 2022
“Ukraine Army repels enemy assaults on Krasnopillia, Marinka,” Ukrinform, 11 July 2022
Over 7,000 Ukrainian soldiers missing - commissioner,” Ukrinform, 11 July 2022
IT army attacks over 800 Russian websites in two weeks - Ministry of Digital Transformation,” Ukrinform, 11 July 2022
Ukraine Condemns Russian Decree Allowing Ukrainians Expedited Citizenship,” RFE, 11 July 2022
Svitlana Sydorenko, “Ukraine Introduces Commissioner for Internally Displaced Persons,” kyiv Post, 11 July 2022
Erdogan, Putin discuss Ukrainian crisis, establishment of grain corridors,” TASS, 11 July 2022
Russia, Belarus discuss 'joint steps' against Lithuania over Kaliningrad,” kyivpost, 11 July 2022
Telephone conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko,” en.kremlin.ru, 11 July 2022
Russia offers fast-track citizenship to all Ukrainians,” RT, 11 July 2022
Bill submitted to State Duma seeks veteran status for FSB servicemen engaged in operation - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 11 July 2022
Jason Jay Smart, “US Sec of State Promises Additional $368m Humanitarian Aid for Ukraine,” kyivpost, 11 July 2022
Germany, Czech Republic pledge solidarity as Russian gas flows stop,” Reuters, 11 July 2022
Andrius Sytas, “Lithuania widens curbs on Kaliningrad trade despite Russian warning,” Reuters, 11 July 2022
Super sponsor scheme paused,” govt.scot, 11 July 2022
Jason Jay Smart, “124 cases of sexual violence by Russians reported in Ukraine, says UN Rep,” kyivpost, 11 July 2022
Wester Van Gaal, “EU creates hub to stop arms-smuggling out of Ukraine,” euobserver, 11 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
President Macron linked with Uber lobbying faces parliamentary inquiry
On 11 July, president Emmanuel Macron was revealed to have ties with the Uber lobbying scandal. He was said to have assisted Uber against the taxi industry at the time when he was the economy minister under the presidency of François Hollande. The connection was found after 124000 confidential files of Uber were leaked to the International Consortium of Journalists. Macron, who was interested in making deals with foreign companies, made it possible for Uber to establish itself in the country. Macron will be subject to parliamentary inquiry in the coming weeks. (Jennifer Rankin and Angeline Chrissafis, “'A state scandal': calls for inquiry into Macron's links to Uber lobbying,” the Guardian, 11 July 2022)

GEORGIA
People protest against government for sabotaging EU candidature
On 11 July, the people of Georgia were taken to the streets to protest against its government. The Dream Party is the ruling party of the Georgian government. It has been ignoring the wishes of people and is aligning itself with Russia rather than with the EU. Georgia was rejected to join the bloc by the EU. People suspect that the government had thwarted the EU membership talks that led to its rejection in June. They believed that Georgia should have been there with Ukraine and Moldova to be granted EU membership. In protest, people wanted the government to resign. The government aligned with Russia after it started the war with Ukraine instead of signing with the EU and its sanctions. (Dato Parulava, “Georgians fear their government is sabotaging EU hopes,” POLITICO, 11 July 2022) 

TURKEY
Ankara to pay EUR 7500 remuneration to Kavala for violating ECHR ruling
On 11 July, Ankara was found guilty of violating the European Court of Human Rights ruling to release the rights activist and philanthropist Osman Kavala. Kavala was sentenced to life in prison in May, although he was acquitted of charges previously. The court ruled that the government of Turkey should pay Kavala EUR 7500 for violating the 2019 judgment of releasing him. Due to its actions, the Council of Europe has started to think of removing Turkey from the EU. The EU has deemed Turkey to be violating human rights by imprisoning Kavala without conviction. He was accused of having a connection with the 2013 Gezi park protest that was followed by the 2016 coup attempt. But he was exonerated from the charges. He was again put in prison immediately for allegedly trying to topple the government (Osman Kavala: ECHR rules Turkey violated ruling,” Deutsche Welle, 11 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Heatwaves across Europe causes distress
On 11 July, climate change led to increased temperatures across western Europe. Spain, Italy, France and recently the southern part of the UK have been facing heat waves since June. The heatwaves have caused a lot of physical and mental health issues to the people of Europe. The UK has been experiencing the hottest period and might surpass its highest record of 38.7 degrees Celsius. The Iberian peninsula consisting of Spain and Portugal has been on alert for wildfires as the temperature has risen above 40 degrees Celsius. Europe has recorded its second warmest June with 1.6 degrees Celsius above average. Extreme temperatures were recorded in Spain, France and Italy. The heatwave has caused fears of getting heatstroke and dehydration that may lead to severe health issues, particularly for children and elderly people. The UK is unprepared for the exponential rise in temperature at present as it is the first time in ages that they have experienced such a heatwave. (Damian Carrington, “Why is it so hot in the UK and elsewhere in Europe and what are the dangers?,” the Guardian, 11 July 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Dolphin hunting on Faroe islands limited after petitions
On 11 July, Faroe island was criticized for its dolphin and whale hunting practices after 1400 dolphins were killed in 2021. They limited this culling to 500 dolphins after hearing the complaints. The tradition known as the Grind has been practiced on the island for hundreds of years to hunt sea animals, especially whales. There was a petition signed by 1.3 million people to ban the island's traditional hunting. The government has limited the number of white-sided dolphins that can be caught to 500, however the limit on Whales was not mentioned. (“Faroe Islands to limit dolphin hunt after outcry,” BBC, 11 July 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
James Webb Space Telescope brings the first fully coloured images of the universe
On 11 July, NASA revealed the first full-coloured image of the universe through the James Webb Space Telescope. The images released were live-streamed on the European Space Agency webpage that can be viewed by anyone. These were the first deepest images of the universe. The images consist of two nebulas, two galaxy clusters, two vast interstellar clouds that form stars, a gaseous exo-planet revolving around a star outside our solar system and Stephan's Quintet. After the Hubble telescope, James Webb Space Telescope is the second most powerful device used to study cosmology. It uses infrared thermal cameras to sort through space dust clouds to view extraterrestrial objects. The advancement of the telescope will further widen human knowledge and understanding of the universe. (Fred Schwaller, “NASA reveals James Webb Space Telescope's first image of cosmos,” Deutsche Welle, 11 July 2022)

 


11 July 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #250

What does Finland fencing its border with Russia mean? | War in Ukraine: Day 136 & 137

Photo : REUTERS/Essi Lehto/File Photo


IN FOCUS
What does Finland fencing its border with Russia mean?
By Emmanuel Selva Royan

 On 07 July, the parliament of Finland amended the Border Guard Act to strengthen its shared border with Russia. A senior advisor to the ministry of interior, Anne Ihanus stated that the objective of the new legislation was to "improve the border guard's operational capacity to respond to hybrid threats," and mentioned that the Ukraine conflict made the situation more urgent. One of the amendments in the Border Guard Act will concentrate on the receiving of asylums to only certain entry points. However, under the EU asylum policies migrants have the right to request asylum from any point where they enter a country. Despite disagreements over the EU's regulation, the bill of preparedness was passed by a supermajority that enables parliament to adopt bills more quickly amid concerns that Russia would retaliate for Finland's bid to join NATO.
 

The history of the border with Russia
For the majority of its 1,300 kilometer length, the two countries' forest-covered border zone is currently only delineated by signs and plastic lines. The Gulf of Finland's shores serve as the southernmost point of the land border between Finland and Russia, while Muotkavaara in Lapland serves as the northernmost point of the shared border between Finland, Norway, and Russia. The border was a portion of the Iron Curtain's perimeter during the Cold War. For a large portion of its length, crossing the border was impossible. There were extremely few border crossing points, and only accompanied travel to a few places was allowed by the Soviet government; tourist access to border areas was prohibited.

Why would Finland want to fence the border now?
First, fear of refugee infiltration from Russia. Finland recalls the time when over 1000 migrants arrived at the northern border post between Russia in January 2016. The Russian strategy was swiftly recognized by Finnish officials, who found that more than half of the asylum seekers had been legally residing in Russia for five to ten years and claimed to come from 40 different countries. The pattern of asylum seekers arriving in other parts of Europe at the time was not the same, as they mostly came from Syria, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Finland anticipates a similar move by Russia to retaliate against the country joining NATO.
 
Second, Aligning with NATO’s defense strategies. As Finland and Sweden go through the ratification process of joining the alliance, as a part of its defense expenditure, is increasing its border security. Along with building concrete walls in specific spots, Finland will also be increasing its border patrol troops to advance the military presence in Europe’s eastern flank. The parliament also amended the Emergency Powers Act  to include hostile hybrid attacks to invoke emergency powers as a response. It is to ensure its sovereignty is not breached by Russia or as consequence of Ukraine war.
 
Third, a political message to Russia. The increase in border security can be perceived as Finland trying to present the border fencing as a deterrence to Russia. The implications of joining NATO is signaled to Russia by Finland ahead of its membership status. Accession of Finland by NATO would further extend its border with Russia and a potential front for direct confrontation. 

References
Tracing Finland's eastern border,” finland.fi, June 2008
Finnish Parliament approves changes to border guard act,” Helsinki times, 08 July 2022
NATO anoints new top general amid historic revamp,” POLITICO, 04 July 2022


Boris Johnson resignation: What does it mean for Scotland?
By Sai Pranav

What are the recent developments?
On 28 June, first minister Nicola Sturgeon of Scotland announced the new date "19 October 2023" to hold referendum. Since the win of  Scottish National Party (SNP) in the 2021 elections Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing forward the idea of a second independence referendum in Scotland after the first one failed to gain support. On 06 July, the referendum was rejected by Westminster, followed by former UK prime minister Boris Johnson who also rejected the referendum on 07 July 2022. Johnson stated: "As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014."

Why is Scotland determined and united for the referendum: Three issues
First, failure of first referendum. The reason for the failure of the first referendum was that many in the UK believed that the key aspects of education fees, finance, defence and the economy would remain unsolved if Scotland split from the UK. According to the UK, Scotland's economy was newly formed and was too weak to cope up with challenges such as cost of living, fuel and energy prices, inflation. Therefore it imposed Section 30 after 2014 referendum, which gave the Scottish parliament the power to legislate for the referendum.

Second, the people's opinion. In a recent Panel base survey, forty-eight per cent of Scotland’s people agreed to its independence. Meanwhile, forty-seven per cent disagreed to the referendum and five per cent were left undecided. On the Brexit, the people of Scotland were against UK's decision. The UK parliament ignored sixty-two per cent of Scotland objection and went ahead with Brexit. Another key reason for people to opt out from UK to implement its independent decision making.
 
Third, the economic crisis that followed the Brexit. According to the Scotland, the fall of the value of pound, cost of living crisis, and the recession was due to Brexit. The UK had faced one of its worst economic crisis in the COVID pandemic followed by Brexit. Hence to achieve economic stability and to access the EU market, Scotland is demanding for independence from the UK.
 
How would Boris Johnson's resignation impact the referendum?
The conservative party and Boris Johnson do not support the referendum. According to them, Scotland should focus on problems such as the COVID pandemic, food crisis, climate change, and cost of living crisis, rather than focusing its agenda on the independence referendum. Even if the leadership of the Tories change, their decision and sentiments on the matter might remain the same. Therefore, unless there is a strong move from the Scotland government to push for the referendum to hold the polls, Scotland has narrow chance to get what it aims in the short-term.


References
David Mac Dougall, "London says 'no' to Scotland over new independence vote," euronews, 07 July 2022
Neil Pooran, "Not possible for election to be de facto referendum on Scots independence – Jack," Evening Standard, 07 July 2022
Severin Carrell, "Independence vote may be ‘unlawful’, says Scotland’s lord advocate," the Guardian, 05 July 2022
Mark A Silberstein, "MAPPED: How Scotland voted in first indy ref - Key areas that scuppered SNP's dream," Express, 05 July 2022
"Nicola Sturgeon raises indyref2 plan in call with Boris Johnson," BBC News, 04 July 2022
"Scottish independence: Greens back general election route to indyref2," BBC News, 03 July 2022
"Scottish voters remain split over independence after fresh referendum bid," Reuters, 03 July 2022
"Scottish independence," instituteforgovernment.org
Professor Nicola McEwen, “Scotland, independence, Brexit and the border,” UKandEU.ac 08 February 2022
Alistair Smout, “UK's Labour rules out pact with Scottish independence party at next election,” Reuters, 04 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 136 & 137
By Rishma Banerjee and Sai Pranav
 

War on the Ground
On 09 July, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he will be replacing ambassadors of Ukraine to Germany, India, Sri Lanka, Hungary, and Norway. The reason for the changes is ambiguous at this period.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy met with the president of the French Republic's Senate, Gerard Larcher, and senators of the upper house when they visited Ukraine. Zelenskyy thanked France for its help in numerous ways. Paris had helped Kyiv with its support in the EU, its hospitality to Ukrainian refugees, assisting the defence forces of Ukraine, providing financial support, and aiding with post-war reconstruction. These acts of France were thanked by president Zelenskyy during the meeting.

Also 09 president Zelenskyy went to the front lines of the war in the Dnipropetrovsk region to motivate and raise the morale of the troops. He visited the Mechnikov hospital in Dnipro to thank the healthcare workers for their part in helping wounded soldiers.  He gave a medal to honour the commander of the tank battalion. He also addressed the parliament of Slovenia about protecting their common freedom from Russian evils.

Also on the same day, Ukraine military reported that Russian military equipment was seen to be transported to the temporarily captured Berdiansk region through Mariupol. A large convoy of military equipment and five buses carrying Russian soldiers were seen travelling to Berdiansk via Mariupol. Exports of looted goods and imports of fuels and military equipment resumed in the Mariupol port after the city was brutally captured by the Russians.

On 10 July, fifteen bodies were recovered by rescuers and five people were pulled out of the rubble caused by the destruction of an apartment after a Russian missile strike hit it. The building in Chasiv Yar town was partially destroyed trapping people under it. Thirty others were expected to be rescued soon from under the rubble. This shows the Russian forces attempting to go deeper into Donetsk to capture the entirety of the Donbas region.

On the same day, Ukraine's deputy prime minister and minister of digital transformation Mykhailo Fedorov thanked the US for contributing to Kyiv's Army of Drones project after the Ukrainian Armed Forces received the first drone from America.

On 10 July, the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, Oleh Syniehubov, warned the people who live in Kharkiv to stay in their homes as there is a threat of Russia firing missiles which will reach the place in thirty to forty seconds as it is only 40 kilometres from the Russian border. The attacks have been increasing in the region and he advised the people of Kharkiv to be cautious.
 
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 10 July, Moscow Times reported that Russia’s forces were continuing theie offense in the east of Ukraine in the Donetsk region. Blasts were heard in Druzhkivka, south of Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.
 
Russia’s defence ministry reported that the Russian Armed Forces had hit two Army hangars Kostantinovka in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. They said that the hangars were storing US produced M777 howitzers. Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said that they had also struck 200 targets in Ukraine. The list provided by him includes 17 command posts, four platoons of Grad MLRS targets, artillery positions in 42 areas and troops and equipment in 143 areas. Konashenkov also reported Russia’s strike in Sloviansk and said that 100 Ukrainian troops have been killed.
 
On the same day, the State Duma chairman, Vyacheslav Volodin spoke about the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the situation in Ukraine. He said that such a negotiated peace will be disadvantageous to the US. In the programme, he mentioned how the leaders of the European countries and the US were all going through a systemic crisis, were indifferent to the fate of the Ukrainians, and were only treating the war from a consumer’s point of view.
 
On 09 July, the regional branch of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) released a statement regarding migrant activity across the Russian border. The statement read: "Over 18,000 people crossed the border to enter Russia through checkpoints in the Rostov Region in the past 24 hours.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 10 July, US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken met China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, and urged China to take a stronger stance against Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. He denounced China’s narrative of being ‘neutral’ about the conflict, and said given how there was a ‘clear aggressor’ and there was a ‘clear victim’ it was quite difficult to be neutral.  He also asked him to extend a hand of cooperation to Biden’s administration. The meeting lasted for more than five hours and said: “The relationship between the United States and China is highly consequential for our countries, but also for the world.”
 
Blinken also spoke about the G20 meeting and said that Russia’s diplomats at the G20 did not address the invasion of Ukraine. He mentioned that there were no signs that Russia was “prepared to engage in meaningful diplomacy” and that the US would seize any chances of diplomacy with Russia, if they arise.
 
On 10 July, UK’s defence ministry reported that six fighter jets of the Royal Air Force have flown to Finland and Sweden for joint training exercises. The exercise is an effort to strengthen the collective defence capabilities of the states. Sweden’s defence minister, Peter Hultqvist said that the training was to improve their “ability to operate together in response to a crisis in our neighbourhood,” necessary in “today's challenging security environment." Four RAF Typhoons, Finland’s F-18 Hornets and Sweden’s Gripen aircrafts are being used for the training.
 
UK’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace announced that the forts cohort of soldiers from Ukraine have arrived at UK for combat training. The first phase of the programme aims to train 10,000 soldiers in weapons handling, battlefield first aid and patrol tactics. Ukraine’s soldiers, many of whom have no military training will also be training on weapons that they will use on the frontlines.
 
On 09 July, Canada announced that they will return a Russian turbine, which is a part of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany. Canada’s minister of natural resources, Jonathan Wilkinson said this was to support Europe’s efforts to transition away from Russian oil and gas. He also mentioned that the export permit for the same had been issued after discussions with their “European friends and allies,” and the International Energy Agency (IEA). This decision was however criticized by the Ukraine. To this, Canada’s foreign affairs minister, Melanie Joly said: “Canada is unwavering in its support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity...Canada will not relent in pressuring the Russian regime.”
 
On 08 July, the EUObserver reported that the EU is building secure bunker in Brussels. The project worth EUR eight million will be to discuss issues without Russian surveillance. The offline room will be quipped with internal big-screen conferencing technology and microphones hard-wired to equally secure booths. It will host up to 100 people and will be enclosed in a NATO-certified insulation cage. The facility is expected to be built by 2024.


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 11 July, the EU home affairs ministers held a meeting to discuss the effects of the war in Ukraine in the EU. They discussed various topics such as child sexual abuse and interoperability of information systems strengthening EU security. They also discussed increasing human trafficking especially among women and children during the war in Ukraine. The EU has implemented the "Temporary Protection Directive" which has proven to be effective against human trafficking.
 
Also on the same day, the G20 foreign ministers attended a joint summit to discuss Russia's unprovoked aggression on Ukraine. Both opposing sides, the west and Russia, were present at the meeting. The war had caused a lot of problems including a global economic crisis and food crisis due to sanctions on Russian fossil fuels and the blockage of Ukrainian grains from being exported.

 

References
"Breaking: Zelensky replacing numerous ambassadors, including those in Berlin, Prague," Kyiv post, 09 July 2022
"BREAKING: Death toll after Russian strike on east Ukraine apartment building reaches 15," Kyiv post, 10 July 2022
"President of Ukraine meets with President of French Senate, French senators,"president.gov.ua, 09 July 2022
"Officials on the ground must do more than possible to guarantee people a normal standard of living in wartime conditions – address of President of Ukraine," president.gov.ua, 09 July 2022
"Olena Zelenska describes framework of second Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen," president.gov.ua, 08 July 2022
"Army of Drones project: Ukraine Army gets first American 'bird'," Ukrinform, 10 July 2022
"Russian war crimes reminded world of genocide in Srebrenica - European Commission," Ukrinform, 10 July 2022
"Missiles launched from Russia hit Kharkiv within 30 to 40 seconds," Ukrinform, 10 July 2022
"Russians moving military equipment through Mariupol toward Berdiansk," Ukrinform, 10 July 2022
Samantha Lock and Richard Luscombe, “Russia-Ukraine war update: what we know on day 138 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 11 July 2022
Richard Luscombe, “Russia-Ukraine war update: what we know on day 137 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 10 July 2022
Relentless' Russian Shelling in East Ukraine as U.S. Promises New Aid,” The Moscow Times, 10 July 2022
Russian defence ministry says its forces hit Ukrainian hangars storing U.S.-made artillery weapons,” Reuters, 10 July 2022
Russia says its air, rocket, artillery forces hit some 200 Ukrainian targets in past day,” TASS, 10 July 2022
Russia says its forces killed up to 100 Ukrainian troops in strike at plant in Slavyansk,” TASS, 10 July 2022
Over 18,000 people crossed the border to enter Russia through checkpoints in the Rostov Region in the past 24 hours,” TASS, 09 July 2022
Alchevsk shelled by Ukrainian army first time since 2014, says mayor,” TASS, 09 July 2022
Volodin announced the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the situation in Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 10 July 2022
Michael Crowley, “Blinken presses his Chinese counterpart about the war,” The New York Times, 09 July, 2022
Blinken Says 'No Signs' at G20 of Russia Engaging on Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 10 July 2022
Nord Stream 1: Canada to return repaired Russian pipeline part to Germany,” Deutsche Welle, 10 July 2022
Andrew Rettman and Nikolaj Nielsen, “EU constructing €8m 'spy-proof' bunker for secret talks,” EUObserver, 08 July 2022 
Adam Durbin, “RAF fighter jets deploy to Sweden and Finland training exercises,” BBC, 10 July 2022
Danica Kirka, “Ukrainian soldiers train in UK as war with Russia rages on,” AP News, 10 July 2022
"EU home affairs ministers discuss the effects of the war in Ukraine on the Union’s internal security," valtioneuvosto.fi, 08 July 2022
"Ukraine crisis extends to G20 summit as Russia meets rivals in Indonesia," TRT World, 08 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

ESTONIA
Prime minister Kallas agrees for a coalition government
On 09 July, Estonia's incumbent center-right Reform Party, led by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, tentatively agreed to form a coalition government with two other parties. The left-leaning Center Party was expelled from the two-party coalition on 03 June as a result of disagreements over spending and welfare policies amid rising household costs due to high inflation. The opposition Social Democrats and the conservative Fatherland (or "Isamaa") party have joined the politically liberal Reform Party, which supports conservative budgetary policy. The 101-seat Riigikogu legislature is controlled by the three parties, who can manage 56 seats in all. The agreement, which will be formalized in the coming days, allows Kallas, Estonia's first female prime minister, to avoid leading a minority one-party administration. (Jari Tanner, “Estonian PM reaches coalition deal for majority government,” Associated Press, 09 July 2022)

HUNGARY
US treasury terminates 1979 tax treaty with Hungary
On 08 July, the US Treasury announced  it will be dissolving a 1979 tax treaty with Hungary in response to Budapest's decision to obstruct the implementation of a new, 15 per cent global minimum tax by the EU. According to a Treasury spokesperson, Hungary gains solely from the tax agreement since it cut their corporation tax rate from 21 per cent to nine per cent, which is less than half the US rate. However, the foreign minister of Hungary Peter Szijjarto reaffirmed the stance of the Hungarian government, claiming that the global minimum tax will destroy Europe's competitiveness and jeopardize jobs in Hungary. After the US Treasury sends a notice to the Hungarian government, the treaty termination is expected to be completed in six months. (“US Treasury to end 1979 treaty with global minimum tax holdout Hungary,” Reuters, 09 July 2022)

ITALY
Migrants relocated as Lampedusa refugee center overcrowds 
On 09 July, the Italian navy relocated the first 600 migrants from the Sicilian island of Lampedusa after the facility for identifying refugees got overcrowded with additional arrivals. Statistics from the Interior Ministry show that compared to previous years, daily migrant admissions in Italy have increased steadily in July. 30,000 have arrived so far this year, compared to 22,700 during the same period in 2021 and 7,500 throughout 2020, which indicates a substantial increase in overall migrant arrivals. Lampedusa is often the destination of choice for migrant smugglers operating out of Libya, who charge desperate people hundreds of dollars each to cross the Mediterranean Sea in crowded, perilous dinghies and boats. Lampedusa is closer to North Africa than mainland Italy. (“Italy relocates migrants after Lampedusa center overwhelmed,” Associated Press, 09 July 2022)

THE UK
Metropolitan police operations are influenced by racism and extremism says IRR report 
On 10 July, a report by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) stated that the police forces in the UK and across Europe are experiencing a growing “culture of extremism.” The reputation of a police force long suspected of being "institutionally racist" in the UK has been further tarnished by a number of recent events involving the Metropolitan police. They include police sharing pictures of two slain Black sisters over WhatsApp. At a station in the heart of London, it was discovered that another set of officers had made jokes about rape, killing black children, and beating their wives. A relationship between racist beliefs and operational practice is also highlighted in the paper, notably with regard to racial profiling and predictive policing. Concerns were raised in December 2021 over the Metropolitan's Operation Pima, in which 61 per cent of those listed in intelligence reports as London's "..most prolific or dangerous offenders" were black. (Mark Townsend, “Growing 'culture of extremism' among UK and European police forces, report warns,” the Guardian, 10 July 2022)

SLOVENIA
Supreme court declares ban on same-sex marriages as unconstitutional
On 09 July, the supreme court of Slovenia declared that laws prohibiting same-sex couples from getting married and adopting children are unconstitutional and ordered the parliament to change the law within six months. The Constitutional Court found that Slovenia's rules restricting marriage and adoption to people of the opposite sex breached the provision against discrimination in the constitution. The judgement stated that discrimination against same-sex couples "cannot be justified with the traditional understanding of marriage as a union between a man and a woman, nor with special protection of family." Although the court gave legislators six months to update existing laws to comply with the decision,  the minister of labor, family, social affairs, and equal opportunities, Luka Mesec, stated that the necessary modifications would be prepared in a week or two. (“Slovenia: Court strikes bans on same-sex marriages, adoption,” Associated Press, 09 July 2022)

REGIONAL
EU and US urged North Macedonia to accept France’s proposal that will solve Bulgaria’s objections
On 10 July, the leaders of the EU and US pleaded with North Macedonia's parliament to approve a French proposal that will advance the country to EU membership and get over Bulgaria's objections. The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in a joint statement that: “At this critical moment in European history, marked by the unjustifiable aggression carried out by Russia against Ukraine, advancing Albania and North Macedonia’s EU path is key to strengthening the cohesion and resilience of the entire European continent.” For 17 years, North Macedonia has sought membership in the EU. As an EU member, Bulgaria has vetoed North Macedonia’s admission to the bloc. President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal envisages concessions from both sides. The government in Skopje would commit to changing its constitution to recognize a Bulgarian minority and protect minority rights. (Konstantin Testorides, “EU, US urge North Macedonia to move forward on EU bid,” Associated Press, 09 July 2022)

Royal Navy hosts two-day workshop for NATO on maritime security
On 08 July, the NATO military committee attended the two-day workshop on maritime discussions in the KMS Prince of Wales battleship of the Royal Navy in the UK. The committee was briefed by the UK strategic command on Multi-Domain operation, the future commando force, risks of maritime warfare and the Madrid summit's influence on NATO’s maritime strategy.  The chair of NATO military committee Admiral Bauer stated that: “NATO’S maritime thinking has always been based around three pillars – the maritime contribution to collective defense, co-operative security, and crisis management… The decisions from the Summit will enable us to build on existing measures and further strengthen our overall Deterrence and Defence Posture.” (“The NATO Military Committee attend maritime-related discussions in the United Kingdom,” nato.int, 08 July 2022)

Wildfires rise in Portugal, EU triggers firefighting air fleet alert
On 10 July, the EU triggered its firefighting air fleet assistance programme to assist in extinguishing the wildfires in Portugal. The programme will allow the member states to share resources to help the country. Following the alert, Spain had mobilized two firefighting planes to Portugal. The country's civil protection agency reported that more than 3000 firefighters were attempting to extinguish the fires. The EU had also warned that Europe is experiencing one of the hardest years for natural disasters amid the rise in climate crisis. (“Dozens injured in Portugal wildfires as heatwave to intensify, The Guardian, 10 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Leak of Uber files expose unethical operations of the firm during 2013-2017
On 10 July, a hoard of confidential files was leaked to the Guardian and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists revealing the US firm’s mobility service provider Uber’s illegal operations and lobbying politicians for its aggressive expansion. The leaked trove consisted of more than 124,000 documents known as Uber files, covering its unethical operations across the 40 countries it serves between the years 2013 and 2017. One of the documents stated that Uber allotted USD 90 million in 2016 to amend taxi and labor laws by lobbying politicians. The document also claims the firm brought academicians to produce research that supports the benefits of its economic model. The leak also exposed conversations between the co-founder of Uber Kalanich and Emmanuel Macron who was the economy minister at that time. The conversations revealed that Macron extensively helped Uber’s lobbyist and executives by framing laws favorable to the firm. The files also revealed the informal support  former vice-president of European Commission Neelie Kroes had with Uber. (Uber Files reporting team,“Uber Files: Massive leak reveals how top politicians secretly helped Uber,” BBC, 10 July 2020 ) 


09 July 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #249

War in Ukraine: Day 135 US to supply HIMARS launchers to Ukraine | Putin's warning to West

Photo : president.gov.ua


War in Ukraine: Day 135
By Padmashree Anandhan
 
War on the Ground
On 07 July, Ukraine's foreign affairs minister, Dmytro Kuleba urged the Oceanian countries to join the international powers in sanctioning Russia. It is to target Russia’s maritime activities and prevent them from Ukraine’s territorial waters. He also warned the Oceanian countries which have joint projects with Russia.

On 08 July, Ukraine's prime minister and the president of the French Senate met to discuss the rising food shortage, energy crisis and unblocking the seaports. The president also emphasized how Ukraine is helpful in supplying electricity to the European energy market.

The South Operational Command reported a Russian attack on the infrastructures in Mykolaiv, which was spotted using Smerch multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). It also reiterated the block continued by Russia’s navy in the Black Sea using two submarines, and three landing crafts.

On 08 July, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his address in the Slovenia Parliament where he thanked Slovenia’s support for Ukraine’s EU candidacy. He highlighted the growing food crisis and hunger in Ukraine due to Russia blocking of ports, stating: “Russia deliberately blocked our exports in order to worsen the price crisis, to make it catastrophic, including for Europeans.” On the energy system, he mentioned how Ukraine is becoming an exporter of electricity to Romania and Slovakia at a low price than the EU.  Zelenskyy held a meeting with the commander of the Kakhovka operational group of troops and Brigadier General Mykhailo Drapatyi where they discussed assembling defence structures, material, and technical support in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 July, Russia president Vladimir Putin warned the West about the continuity of its sanctions over the Ukraine war. He called the US to stop asking countries to rely on Russian oil since it will affect the price caps of oil and lead to more impact on the economies that are not sanctioning Russia. At the same, he said: “Further use of sanctions may lead to even more severe — without exaggeration, even catastrophic — consequences on the global energy market.”

On 08 July, TASS reported that Russia had launched strikes using a “sea-launched smart weapon” to take down two Harpoon missile launchers located in the Odessa region, which was given by the UK. According to Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov, “Sea-launched precision weapons eliminated two Harpoon coastal missile launchers in the area of the settlement of Liman in the Odessa Region delivered from Great Britain.” Harpoon missiles are those which have the capacity to hold a 225 kg warheads and travel at subsonic speed in a range between 120 to 280 kilometers.

People’s militia officer of the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) reported that Ukraine had deployed “new fortifications” near Artyomovsk and Soledar cities in the DPR region. The cities located in the east of DPR are currently held by Ukraine. Another spokesperson said that the Ukrainian 80th air assault brigade was also discovered near the cities.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 08 July, the Finland government announced the upcoming informal meeting on 11 July between the EU home affairs ministers, Justice, and Home Affairs Council. It will be the first meeting held under the Czech Presidency. The agenda includes a discussion of the effects of war, the EU’s internal security, increasing child abuses, and interoperability between the EU information system and the Council.

The US announced a new set of military aid to Ukraine worth USD 400 million which will include HIMARS launchers, that will aid Ukraine in attacking targets in the ammunition dumps that have missiles from a longer distance. With the HIMARS system, Ukraine now will be able to deter Russia’s strikes on the frontlines and counter its artillery operations.

On 08 July, Poland Border Guard reported on its border checks where it found 4.62 million people to have entered Poland from Ukraine since the start of the war. The Border Guard added: “2.68 million people had left Poland for Ukraine since the beginning of the war. On Thursday, 22,000 people crossed the border from Poland to Ukraine.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 08 July, Canada government announced a new set of sanctions on Russian Orthodox Church leader, Patriarch Kirill, and 29 other individuals. As per the statement: “..sanctions against the Patriarch could only be introduced by Satanists.

On 08 July, the UN release the report on food prices for June month and it found the wholesale food prices to have fallen by 2.3 per cent. Whereas the prices of cereals, edible oils, and food shot up due to the Ukraine war. Overall, it observed an increase of 23 per cent rise compared to the prices in June 2021. The UN Food Prices Index tracked the most traded food commodities to be “cereals, vegetable oil, dairy, meat, and sugar.”

References
Address by the President to the Parliament of Slovenia,” president.gov.ua08 July 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting regarding the operational situation in the territory of the Kryvyi Rih district of the Dnipropetrovsk region,” president.gov.ua08 July 2022
Prime Minister of Ukraine discussed with the President of the French Senate the role of our country in the energy and food security of Europe,” kmu.gov.ua08 July 2022
Russians strike Mykolaiv with Smerch MLRS, fire cruise missile at Odesa Region,” Ukrinform, 08 July 2022
FM Kuleba calls on Oceanian countries to join sanctions against Russian Federation,” Ukrinform, 08 July 2022
Putin warns Western sanctions risk energy price 'catastrophe',” TRT World, 08 July 2022
Russian forces destroy two UK-supplied Harpoon missile launchers in Ukraine operation,” TASS, 08 July 2022
Russia destroys more foreign weapons in Ukraine – military,” RT, 08 July 2022
 “Ukraine’s military actively preparing for Artyomovsk defense, LPR militia reports,” TASS, 08 July 2022
Poland accepts 4.62 mln refugees since war in Ukraine started,”The First News, 08 July 2022
EU home affairs ministers discuss the effects of the war in Ukraine on the Union’s internal security,” Finnish Government, 09 July 2022
Ukraine war round-up: Russia jails critic, US trains fighters,” BBC, 08 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

BOSNIA
Memorial march to pay respect to the victims of the Srebrenica massacre
On 08 July, thousands of people in Bosnia joined a Peace march to commemorate the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. In July 1995, around 8,000 Bosniak males were separated by Serb troops from their families, chased through the woods, and then killed. The bodies of these soldiers were then dumped in mass graves. So far the remains of 6,600 people have been found. The Sebrenica killings are the only acknowledged genocide in Europe since World War II and took place at the peak of the war in Bosnia, after the break-up of Yugoslavia. The 100-kilometer memorial march traces the route taken by the victims while attempting to flee the Bosnian Serbs. (“Thousands march in Bosnia in memory of Srebrenica massacre,” AP News, 08 July 2022)

BULGARIA
Bulgaria to go through snap elections as PP party fails to form a new coalition
On 08 July, Reuters reported that Bulgaria is likely to face a snap election soon. Kiril Petkov’s government fell after members of the ruling coalition resigned, and co-leader Assen Vassilev was given the responsibility by president Rumen Radev to form a new government. However, he reported that his party would not propose a new government as it had failed to gain the support of four lawmakers needed for an absolute majority. While other parties will get two attempts to form a government, they are unlikely to succeed. The president will then appoint a caretaker government before Bulgaria conducts fresh elections- the fourth one since 2021. (Tsvetelia Tsolova, “Snap election looms in Bulgaria after PP party fails to form government,” Reuters, 08 July 2022)

FRANCE
“Mega-fire” in France burns 1500 acres of land overnight
On 08 July, a massive fire was reported in France’s southern Gard region. The blaze started near the Bordezac village and forced evacuations from nearby Bessèges and other settlements. Around 1,500 acres of land were burned overnight. Almost 1,000 firefighters, 12 water-dropping planes and 2 helicopters struggled to contain the fire. Reportedly, 13 firefighters have been injured and 100 people had to be evacuated from their homes. A red alert for fire risks has been issued by several neighboring areas by France’s national meteorological service. (“Almost 1,000 firefighters tackle ‘mega-fire’ in southern France,” The Guardian, 08 July 2022)

IRELAND
No-confidence vote to be initiated as ruling coalition falls short of a majority
On 08 July, Ireland's main opposition party, Sinn Fein announced that it will initiate a no-confidence motion next week. The new development comes after Joe McHugh of the center-right Fine Gael resigned the party whip, after voting against a bill introduced by the government. The resignation means that the coalition government made of Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and the Green Party now has 79 seats in the 160-seat lower house, which is one short of a majority. Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald said: "This government has lost its parliamentary majority, failed to tackle the cost of living and housing crisis… this government is out of touch and out of time… We need a government that puts workers and families first." (“Sinn Féin tables no confidence motion in Irish government,” BBC News, 09 July 2022)

NORTH MACEDONIA
Protests in North Macedonia over French proposal on a compromise deal with Bulgaria
On 08 July, protests were reported in North Macedonia, against a proposed compromise deal with Bulgaria that would allow the country to begin the process for their EU membership. Hundreds of people took part in the protest by parking their vehicles around government building and blocking regional roads too. The proposal by France is expected to be debated by North Macedonia next week. However, the leader of the largest opposition party VMRO-DPMNE, which supports the protest, Hristijan Mickoski said: "We will never, never accept this treaty because it is contrary of our national interest and it is contrary to our identity.” (Fatos Bytyci, “Protests block North Macedonia's capital over Bulgaria, EU compromise,” Reuters, 08 July 2022)

THE UK
Rishi Sunak enters race for next prime minister
On 08 July, Rishi Sunak announced his intention to run for the position of the leader of the conservative party and the prime minister. The former finance minister’s resignation from the cabinet was in part what triggered the mass walkout of ministers, which resulted in Boris Johnson having to stand down as Tory leader. Sunak announced his decision in a social media video and said: “Someone has to grip this moment and make the right decisions." Several senior members of Parliaments of the Tory party supported Sunak's candidacy, promoting his campaign slogan "Ready for Rishi." (“Ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak launches bid to be Conservative leader,” BBC, 09 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Morocco and EU release joint statement on border control
On 09 July, the EU and Morocco issued a joint statement on anti-trafficking efforts. The agreement comes after thousands of migrants crossing from Morocco to Spain's Melilla rushed to the border, where 23 died in the chaos. Spain's interior minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, Morocco's interior minister Abdelouafi Laftit and the EU commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson met in Rabat to discuss the issue. According to the statement, the new agreement will include border management support and strengthening of police cooperation. Cooperation between Moroccan and EU agencies working with the issues will also be strengthened. (“EU, Morocco announce joint anti-trafficking effort after migrant tragedy,” Deutsche Welle, 08 July 2022


08 July 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #248

Boris Johnson EXITS The Unravelling of UK leadership in crisis | War in Ukraine: Day 134

Finland to reinforce border with Russia; World leaders react to Johnson's resignation; Abortion, a basic right for EU; European Parliament's commitment to green jet fuels

Photo : Stefan Rousseau/PA via AP


EM Exclusive
Boris Johnson EXITS
The Unravelling of UK leadership in crisis

By Sourina Bej

On 07 July, another prime minister in the United Kingdom bites the dust. It was not the tussle over “getting Brexit done” like his predecessor Theresa May, rather in disrespecting one’s code of political conduct, that prime minister Boris Johnson stepped down as party leader. He will however continue as the prime minister till a new leader is elected from within the conservative party. The outgoing leader said, “To you the British public… I want you to know how sad I am to be giving up the best job in the world. But them’s the breaks.” In a bit of a sleepless gripping political drama for Johnson, it is the last 48 hours, 44 cabinet resignations and one sacking that determined the resignation. A month ago, the pushout of Johnson started after controversies over Downing Street parties breaking the COVID-19 protocol tainted the party’s rules on public accountability. The Tory MPs called a confidence vote in the prime minister, which he won, yet 41 per cent of parliamentary Tories wanted him out. Under party rules, his win stalled the resignation for 12 months, thus setting the ball rolling for cabinet resignations.
 
Unboxing the end of Boris Johnson
The political editor of the Guardian, Heather Stewart summarise the essence behind Johnson’s exit in a line: “Boris Johnson’s unrepentant resignation speech was delivered with trademark bullishness.”  Such is the bitterness against Boris Johnson, once revered as the “Tory man” taking conservatives through their biggest win in 2019.  What changed and made the party pull the rug from under Boris Johnson?
 
First, in courting scandals, Partygate merely provided a plausible reason for the party to disassociate from Johnson. After Sue Gray’s report on the 10 Downing Street pandemic parties, the prime minister was fined, he lost a string of byelections and appointed an alleged sexual assaulter as his deputy chief whip which appalled his own ministers who backed him in 2019. In the three years in office, Johnson’s conduct on misleading the press, lying to his own party members with an unapologetic hint, became a crucial violation of party, political and public code of conduct. With Johnson, there was no rest to the threat of scandals: whether it was his friendship with Lord Lebedev, a Russian oligarch or bigger than public office personal relationship with the businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri.
 
Second, the conservative party’s losing political ground. What the Johnson’s scandals did to the party was more than an image dissolution rather it incapacitated the party machinery from looking into crucial issues such economic inequalities and retaining public mandate. Four prime ministers in six years: the speed with which the conservative party replaced and elected its leaders, raises questions on the stability off the party machinery itself. “Getting Brexit done” had figuratively impaired the Tory consensus and the political trust was further eroding when Boris Johnson took a hardline approach with a unilateral offsetting of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Clear evidence that party had been relying more on one leader over its own mandate emerged through the electoral loss in Devon. One of the strong argument among many Tory MPs for getting rid of Johnson is his unpopularity, yet it could also be argued that underneath a self-sabotaging leader, conservatives has also subterfuged their lack of new vision for policy change.
 
Last, lack of policy vision and dwindling public opinion could be observed in the post Brexit realities when inflation, food shortages and healthcare crisis emerged much before the war pushed the energy prices throughout Europe. The only big economic measures from the party was in the last few months after former chancellor to the exchequer, Rishi Sunak committed £15bn. Some of the party’s ideas to cut the cost of living such as windfall tax had been proposed by the labour party before. The Brexit had brought back queues, and wastage of harvest leading voters to target their anger at the leader representing the party.
 
Troubled political landscape ahead 
The new leader of the conservative party will not only have to provide an alternative to the party but also to the people and the region itself. Starting with an introspection of the party pathways, conservatives will have to bring back the Number 10 operation with full political trust. For the new leader, the support of the backbencher committee, accountability in the PMQ sessions and honest interaction with the press could probably salvage the inner rebellion and the Conservative’s fear of a rout in the local elections. Secondly, getting Brexit done just not in rhetoric will be a harder negotiating path yet to be foreseen. The Northern Ireland protocol bill could have had sabotaged the Good Friday agreement, but the questions that still remains is how to bring the electoral representation back in the province? With Boris Johnson still as the prime minister and a vivid breakdown of the party trust, the next six weeks will be a crucial test for democratic values in the Westminister.


War in Ukraine: Day 134
By Emmanuel Selva Royan and Sai Pranav
 
War on the Ground
On 07 July, US senators Lindsey Graham of the Republican party and Richard Blumenthal of the Democratic Party visited Kyiv to meet president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They discussed the developments on the front lines, air defence system in Ukraine, and educational sector. 

On 07 July, a disputed cargo ship containing alleged Ukrainian food grains was expected to be returned to the Russian territorial waters after being detained by Turkey for four days. The ship named Zhibek Zholy was released from Karasu port in Turkey's part of the Black Sea after four days of its detainment on 05 July 2022. Previously Ukraine has asked Turkey to seize the ship, which Turkey ignored. Later the Ukraine foreign ministry criticized for such act and Turkey’s spokesperson countered stating that they found no such evidence of Ukraine food grain in the investigation.

On the same day, Ukraine Armed Forces agents found that the military officials in the Russian had cremated officers and soldiers who had died in action in the occupied city of Kherson. The UAF discovered charred remains of people in the city who were burnt which was difficult to identify. It believes that the Russians had been burning its dead military personnel, killed in the war to hide the number of casualties. The soldiers and officers who were killed during the UAF bombardments were reported missing. They are suspected to be the ones burnt by the Russian forces. The information on the losses suffered by the Russian army in Ukraine is kept a secret from the Russian public.

The Ukraine deputy prime minister and the minister for digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov said in a telegram post that the first batch of unmanned aerial force has been sent to the front lines. These drones form part of the Army of Drone project, which contains the systematic purchase of drones, repair and faster replacement and pilot training programs.

Ukrinform reported that 21 sorties were held by the Ukrainian National Guard helicopters on the Russian forces and the National Guard of Ukraine reported on detaining 354 spies and 16,515 people who have committed administrative and criminal offences over to the security service of Ukraine.

On 07 July, defence deputy minister Hanna Maliar of Ukraine said in a briefing that the Russian was waging a war of attrition to seize full control over the Luhansk region. Russia’s ultimate goal is to reach the geographical border of the Donetsk region. Maliar said that the most challenging situation is around Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut on the same day. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian troops are preventing the Kyiv forces from advancing toward the state border in the directions of Kharkiv and Balakliia.  They also observed that the Russian forces are attempting to conduct offensive operations that surround the units of armed forces of Ukraine in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.

Also on 07 July, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine expressed his sympathy for the resignation of the UK prime minister Boris Johnson over a phone conversation. He was thankful to prime minister Johnson and the UK for the constant support that they have shown toward Ukraine in the war. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 07 July, the defence ministry of Russia reported destroying of two US made high mobility artillery rocket systems. Russia for the first time employed its advanced electromagnetic weapon Stupor jams against unmanned aerial vehicles. The ministry also reported that the US department of defence threat deduction office extracted a collection of microorganisms from Ukraine and organized inspections to assess the biological situation. The US held projects that studied "..highly dangerous and economically significant infections" that can worsen the epidemiological situation. 

On 06 July, president Vladimir Putin addressed the leaders of the State Duma and heads of factions of political parties of the Federal Assembly. In the address he thanked the parties for organizing humanitarian support of the residents of Donbass and stated his work towards improving the basic sectors of the Russian economy and the workforce of enterprises.

On 07 July, president Putin met the winners of the Leaders of Russia national management competition, which was held between 26 - 29 May in Moscow. At the meeting he stated that the people of Donbass were subject to isolation and genocide for the past eight years and pledged that Russia will now completely restore living conditions in the Luhansk region. Furthermore, he agreed to a proposal put forward by the head of the party, Sergei Mironov: “Fair Russia- For the Truth,” to equate the military of Donetsk and Luhansk with the ranks of Russian forces.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 05 July, NATO’s member countries have fastened the ratification of Sweden and Finland’s accession protocols. Canada was the first to sign the ratification of the document. The legislatures of all the 30 member countries will have to approve the proposal, this process may take up many months. Turkey’s communication director Farettin Altun stated that Ankara has “specific expectations” from Sweden to sign the ratification document. He mentioned that the memorandum of understanding signed with Sweden and Finland in June shall not be perceived as Ankara’s vote for the countries to join NATO. 

On 07 July, Finland’s parliament passed a legislation to amend the Border Guard Act. It will facilitate the construction of stronger fences on its 1300-kilometre-long border with Russia. The decision comes in light of Finland starting the process of joining the NATO this week. Currently, Finland’s borders are marked by light wooden fences, mainly to keep livestock from wandering across. The director of the Finnish border guards’ legal division, Sanna Palo, said: “What we are aiming to build now is a sturdy fence with a real barrier effect… In all likelihood the fence will not cover the entire eastern border but will be targeted at locations considered to be the most important.”

On 07 July, the Polish Economic Institute reported that 94 per cent of its country's business have experienced the negative implications of the war in Ukraine. The think tank stated that the firms which conducted business with eastern markets such as Russia, Belarus and Ukraine will have to completely restructure its operations. The EU’s statistical office, Eurostat reported that Poland received and sheltered the highest number of Ukrainian refugees among the bloc’s member states. Poland received 96,085 refugees, followed by Romania at 20,435 and Bulgaria with 19,860.

On the same day, the Lithuania defence minister Arvydas Anusauskas stated that the government will be transferring a crowdfunded combat drone - Bayraktar TB2 to Ukraine. The people raised around EUR six million for the drone. However, the manufacturer of the drone decided to donate it, therefore the money will be spent to arm the drone. The remaining funds will be allocated towards humanitarian aid. 
On 07 July, the US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumental presented Zelenskyy with a draft resolution to designate Russia as “A state sponsor of terrorism.” Russia would be the fifth country the US has designated as a state sponsor of terrorisim following Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Syria. Braham and Blumenthal had visited Borodyanka and Bucha after the meeting. The US state department expressed disappointment that Indonesia has invited Russia to the upcoming G20 summit. They mentioned that with Russia’s participation the meeting would be inconclusive regarding Ukraine. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 07 July, the Ukrainians in Canada have written to the prime minister Justin Trudeau to refrain from returning a turbine to Moscow, amid sanctions. The turbine used for transporting petroleum by Gazprom was sent to be serviced in Canada by Siemens Energy. The president of Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC), Alexandra Chyczij stated that: “Any waiver of Canadian sanctions would be viewed as a capitulation to Russian blackmail and energy terrorism, and would only serve to embolden the Russian terrorist state.” 

On 07 July, foreign ministers of Russia and China were seen to be meeting privately before the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Bali to discuss strategic cooperation between the nations amidst pressure from the West. Foreign ministers Sergey Lavrov and Wangi Yi from Chin talked to strengthen the relations and work amidst the economic sanctions by the West. Lavrov is seeing the G20 meeting as an opportunity to convince other nations about the actions of Russia against Ukraine as a special military operation. Meanwhile, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, wants to focus on the food crisis but also is not willing to accept any reasons put forward by Russia for starting the war against Ukraine.
In Ethiopia, the fuel subsidies have been lifted due to the rise in energy prices. The Ukraine war has affected global energy prices and in turn, increases the rate of fuels in Ethiopia. This has given rise to the country facing an increase in inflation.

The director of the UN World Food Programme, Patrick Beasley, has warned that a hunger catastrophe will emerge within the next two years, resulting in global political turmoil. He stated that: “A staggering 50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step from famine.” He also urged for the quick release of the 25 million tonnes trapped Ukrainian grains. According to Beasley, the world's food markets are in a state of chaos due to rising prices, export restrictions, and shortages of staple items that extend well beyond Ukraine's borders. Where African, Middle Eastern, Asian, and even Latin American nations are facing the implications of this conflict. 

References
"Ukraine military intelligence: Russian invaders in Kherson burning military dead to conceal losses," Kyiv Post, 07 July 2022
"First UAVs from Ukraine's Army of Drones already sent to front line," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Ukraine's National Guard helicopters made 21 sorties against enemy troops over past week," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Defense ministry: Enemy attempts to reach Donetsk Region’s borders," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with Boris Johnson," President.gov.au, 07 July 2022
"President met with US Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal," President.gov.au, 07 July 2022
Russia says it destroyed American HIMARS in Ukraine,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Russia uses Stupor anti-drone guns in Ukraine for first time, TASS, 07 July 2022
DPR embassy staff begin work in Russia, top diplomat says,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Upper house to review DPR, LPR bid to join Russia if referendums take place, says speaker,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Donbass residents subjected to isolation, genocide for eight years — Putin,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Meeting with the leadership of the State Duma and heads of factions,” Kremlin.ru, 07 July 2022
Putin agreed to equate the military DPR and LPR to the status of Russian counterparts,” Lenta.ru, 07 July 2022
The Ministry of Defense announced the collection of microorganisms exported by the Americans from Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 07 July 2022
Lithuania to transfer a crowdfunded Bayraktar drone to Ukraine on Wednesday,” Reuters, 07 July 2022
Finland passes law to bolster border fence with Russia,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022
Ukrainian diaspora urges Trudeau not to return turbine to Russia,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022“UN warns of 'looming hunger catastrophe' due to Russian blockade,” The Guardian, 08 July 2022
"Russian FM looks to China for greater cooperation under pressure from the West," scmp, 07 July 2022
"As G20 set to meet with Russia and China on its mind, Bali hopes for tourism boost," scmp, 07 July 2022
"Worry and frustration in Ethiopia as subsidies cut and fuel prices soar," africanews, 06 July 2022
 


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

THE UK
World reacts to Boris Johnson’s resignation a leader of the conservative party
On 07 July, UK prime minister Boris Johnson resigned as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson’s resignation comes on the back of a turbulent three years, numerous scandals, a narrowly survived no-confidence motion and dozens of his ministers quitting his government. US president Biden did not mention the outgoing Johnson, but said that the US and the UK are the “closest of allies” and that he will want to continue “close cooperation with the government.” The EU and UK have recently had a tense relation due to Johnson and his endorsement for Brexit. Regarding the departure of Johnson, EU negotiator for Brexit Michel Barnier, tweeted " May it be more constructive, more respectful of commitments made, in particular regarding peace and stability in Northern Ireland…” While, Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy said that the accepted the news with sadness and that the Ukrainian society had its sympathies for Johnson, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov welcomed the news and hoped that “more professional people who can make decisions through dialogue will come to power.” Irish prime minister Micheal Martin referred to the recent strained relation between Ireland and the UK and said: “We have now an opportunity to return to the true spirit of partnership and mutual respect that is needed to underpin the gains of the Good Friday Agreement." (“Factbox: Reaction to Boris Johnson's resignation,” Reuters, 07 July 2022; Alistair Smout, “Bye bye Boris: UK PM Johnson bows out with regrets but no apologies,” Reuters, 07 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Abortion to be a basic right for the EU
On 07 July, the European parliament voted in favour of a resolution endorsing abortion as a basic right. While 324 members voted in favour, 155 voted against and 38 were absent. The resolution adds "everyone has the right to safe and legal abortion" to the charter of EU’s fundamental rights. This is in response to the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which granted women the right to have safe and legal abortions. European Equality Commissioner Helena Dalli said the votes were "a reminder that hard-won rights cannot be taken as a given, anywhere,” and that the EU “should push forward, not backward.” However, the vote was nonbinding, and all the 27 member states will have to approve the changes to the charter. (“European Parliament urges EU to make abortion a basic right,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2022)

European Parliament reiterates use of sustainable aviation fuel by 2025
On 07 July, the European Parliament reiterated its commitment to mandatory targets for replacing kerosene with more environment-friendly energy sources. Such a requirement was proposed by the European Commission last year but has now been expanded on. The new text approved by the parliament will require suppliers to blend 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with kerosene from 2025, to be raised to 85% by 2050. Originally, SAF included biofuels derived from recycled waste and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels or e-fuels from renewable energy sources. However, the new rules have added recycled carbon fuels derived from waste gas and biofuels derived from animal fats or distillates to the list. The rules will now await approval from the member governments and the EU Commission. (“EU lawmakers back mandatory use of green jet fuel from 2025,” Reuters, 07 July 2022)

Europe might face ban on Facebook and Instagram
On 07 July, the Irish Data Protection Commission informed that they will not allow Facebook-owner Meta from sending user data from Europe to the US. The measure comes as a response to Meta's legal resort to transfer large chunks of data to the US. The draft decision by the Irish DPC has been sent to other European privacy regulators, and if confirmed might shut down many of Meta’s services like Facebook and Instagram in Europe. The US and the EU are negotiating a new data-transfer text which will allow companies like Meta to ship data across the Atlantic. However, while a preliminary political deal was reached in March, the legal fine print is yet to be decided on. (Vincent Manancourt, “Europe faces Facebook blackout,” Politico, 07 July 2022)

MARITIME
Senckenberg scientists develop new indicators for marine ecosystem protection
On 07 July it was reported that Senckenberg scientists, working with an international team have developed new indicators to monitor the protection of marine and coastal areas. The study was published in the journal “Scientific Data,” and illustrates the large gaps in the current system of protection of marine ecosystems. The team led by Senckenberg researchers, Joy A. Kumagai and Aidin Niamir, developed two indicators that provide information on what per cent of coastal and marine habitats are located within protected and conserved areas. Analysis showed that while 40 per cent of mangroves, coral reefs, and salt marshes are located in protected or conserved areas, less than 10 per cent of seamounts are under protected areas, as they often fall outside national jurisdiction. Niamir said: “The lack of protection on the high seas poses a major problem, since this area also offers the greatest opportunity for habitat conservation, in terms of area, if its protection were increased to 30 percent.” (Judith Jördens, Aidin Niamir and Joy Kumagai, “More Ocean Protection: New Indicators for Marine Ecosystem Protection Developed,” Senckenberg, 07 July 2022)

 

 


07 July 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #246

Political crisis in the UK: Four issues | War in Ukraine: Day 133

Germany introduces new migration bill; FBI and MI5 raise alert against Chinese espionage; Russian students face restrictions in the Czech Republic

Photo : Jonathan Brady/AP


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Political crisis in the UK: Four issues
On 06 June, more than 50 cabinet ministers of UK prime minister Boris Johnson resigned from their posts demanding resignation. The move comes upon growing criticism of Johnson's involvement in the party-gate scandal. In response, Johnson said: “But my job is to get on and deliver the government’s aims, which is what I was elected to do … The welfare of the British people and the security of the nation are indispensable.” Till now two senior-most Cabinet ministers have resigned followed by ministers in charge of Treasury, prison, health, home secretary, and junior ministers. Johnson’s Conservative party holds 358 seats out of 650 in Parliament. With the resignation of party members, Johnson is now under pressure to refill the positions to maintain the majority.

Four issues
First, the problem of integrity amongst the party members. The row of the resignation of the party members comes as the division has sprung over Johnson’s integrity towards the party. Ministers who have resigned seem to have lost trust in Johnson in handling the scandal and removal of certain ministers. Although the scandal seems to be the reason upfront, the objection towards Johnson’s leadership is also due to the split in economic policy making.

Second, the worry over economic growth. The conservative party member is also dissatisfied with Johnson’s approach to UK’s economy and “tax trajectory.” In the G7 Johnson indicated that the UK was the fastest growing economy, but the Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated only 1.3 to 1.7 per cent growth after the pandemic rebound settles. Therefore, increasing inflation rates, cost-of-living prices, and the limitations in health care are other concerning factors that can worsen with a decline in economic growth. Although Johnson vows to keep national security and people’s welfare on the front the party thinks otherwise.

Third, the party’s leadership and unity in the focus of the conservative 1922 committee. In the UK, till now the government formed is by either the Labour Party or the Conservative Party. The conservatives fear that the factions created under Johnson will threaten the position held by the conservative in the parliament. One faction is socially conservative, the other being immigration focused and another set in the north demanding more funds for schools and hospitals, the party believes that the governance misses focusing on the hike in taxes. With the Labour Party gaining strength through new voters, conveying a message to rebalance the economy can be a threat to conservatives in the upcoming elections. Therefore, Johnson’s leadership will be put under test if the 1922 committee decides on a rule change to have another set of elections to choose the leader of the party.

Fourth, the future leader of the conservative party. If the conservatives decide to cast voting to choose the leadership, Johnson’s chances to win the majority seem uncertain. The likely leaders to replace him are expected to be Rishi Sunak who was responsible for UK’s COVID support program, Liz Truss who has the popular vote amongst the party and is the most likely to replace Johnson, and defence secretary Ben Wallace who has gained reputation over Ukraine war.

References
Therese Raphael, “Conservatives Have a Bigger Problem Than Boris Johnson,” Bloomberg, 14 February 2022
Zachary Basu, Dave Lawler, “The top candidates to replace Boris Johnson as U.K. prime minister,” Axios, 06 July 2022
Annabelle Dickson and Eleni Courea, “Boris Johnson clings on in the face of Cabinet coup,” POLITICO, 06 July 2022
Joe Mayes, “How Britain’s Parliament Could Bring Down Boris Johnson,” BloomberQuickTake, 06 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 133
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Selva Royan
 

War on the Ground
On 06 July, in his address president Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that a Russian strike has destroyed the pedagogical university in Kharkiv. Further, he spoke about the Western artillery that he believes is helping Ukraine reduce Russia’s offensive potential. Zelenskyy said, “…the weapons we received from our partners - started working very powerfully. Its accuracy is exactly as needed.” He also reported about his successful conversations with the presidents of Paraguay and Mozambique, and his meeting with the prime minister of Ireland.
 
On 06 July, Ukraine’s military reported that Russia’s forces were now concentrating their efforts in the north of Donetsk region. Heavy bombardment was reported around Sloviansk as Russia aims to seize the towns of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Bakhmut and gain control over the highway linking Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Shelling was also reported in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv.  
 
The governor of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko urged the 350,000 remaining residents in the province to flee the area. He said that evacuating Donetsk would help Ukraine’s forces put up a better resistance against a Russian advance.
 
The Moscow-installed director of seaport authority said that the Mariupol port was “operating in full-fledged” conditions. Earlier on the same day, the Ministry of Coal and Energy of the Donetsk People’s Republic reported that the power supply to the port was completely restored.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 July, the Chief of Russia’s National Defence Operations Centre, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev reported than over 24000 people were evacuated from parts of Luhansk and Donetsk to Russia. Close to 4310 private vehicles have crossed to Russia’s state border. He also noted that Ukraine’s authorities did not participate in the process.
 
At a press conference after his talks with Vietnamese diplomat Bui Thanh Son, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia’s army was not attacking their own cities, as alleged by Ukraine. He accused Ukraine of lying. Lavrov also urged the West to take responsibility for the civilian deaths in Donbas, as it was with their weapons that Ukraine was attacking them.
 
On the same day, Russia’s parliament strengthened their legislation on state treason and espionage. Tougher prison terms have been introduced, where acts against Russia’s security are to be punished by up to seven years of prison term. In a statement released by the lower house of parliament, a senior parliamentarian, Vasily Piskarev said: “The changes are an adequate and timely response to the challenges that our country is currently facing.” Moreover, Russia’s parliament also introduced two bills which will ensure stricter controls on the economy. If these ”special economic measures” are signed by the president, one bill will mandate some businesses to supply goods to the armed forces. The other bill will require employees at some firms to work overtime
 
The Russian foreign ministry reported that president Vladimir Putin was invited to be a part of the G20 summit hosted by Indonesia and had also sent a preliminary confirmation of his attendance. The ministry mentioned that: “The format of his participation is subject to clarification depending on the development of the situation in the world and the sanitary-epidemiological environment in Southeastern Asia.”

On 06 July, a Russian court ordered the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to suspend its operation for 30 days. The pipeline transports 80 per cent oil from Kazakhstan to the Western markets through the Black Sea. The court stated that it found “documentary violations” in the CPC’s oil spill response plan.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
 
Ireland’s prime minister, Micheál Martin met with Zelenskyy and visited Borodianka, Bucha and Irpin in Ukraine. They discussed the food security crisis, the energy crisis and spoke about a possible joint response. Additionally, the two leaders spoke about the seventh set of sanctions against Russia. Martin also reiterated his support for Ukraine.
 
NASA’s Harvest mission reported that Russia controls around 22 per cent of Ukraine’s agricultural lands. In their analysis, done through NASA Harvest satellite images, these territories are where mainly winter crops like wheat, rye and barley are grown.
 
On 06 July, defense minister of Latvia, Artis Pabriks announced that the country will reintroduce national military service, which it revoked in 2007. He mentioned that men between the age of 18-27 will be recruited and paid upto EUR 400 per month, for 11 months. The option for women to join is voluntary.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 06 July, the 2022 edition of the U.N. food security and nutrition report was released. UN agencies like Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP) and World Health Organisation (WHO) said that nearly 10% of the world's population, were affected by hunger in 2021. However, more concerning was the report’s forecast for 2022, where the food crisis is bound to be exacerbated due to the Ukraine war. WFP executive director David Beasley said: “The result will be global destabilization, starvation, and mass migration on an unprecedented scale. We have to act today to avert this looming catastrophe.”
 
42 countries have signed the declaration of the conference on the restoration of Ukraine in Lugano. They condemned Russia’s aggression and asked them to withdraw their troops at the earliest. They said that the draft Recovery and Development Plan initiated by Ukraine would be considered as the main framework for the recovery process. Other than the 42, representatives from the Council of Europe, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Commission, the European Investment Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development were also present.
 
On the same day, following Donetsk governor’s appeal for the residents of Donetsk to evacuate, UN’s refugee agency said that the as per their reports, 8.793 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began.
 
The Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova reported that she is investigating more than 21,00 war crimes committed since the start of Russia’s invasion. She mentioned that trials will have to held in absentia of the accused and stated that: "Russian militaries who decided to kill civilians, to torture civilians, to rape civilians, they should understand that it's only a question of time when they all will be in court".
 
Russia’s president Vladimir Putin spoke with the president of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. They discussed bilateral trade and economic cooperation, particularly in the energy, Agriculture and transport sectors. Rajapaksa tweeted that their phone call had been productive, and that Putin has agreed to help import fuel to Sri Lanka.
 
On 06 July, the Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova reported that she is investigating more than 21,00 war crimes committed since the start of Russia’s invasion. She mentioned that trials will have to held in absentia of the accused and stated that: "Russian militaries who decided to kill civilians, to torture civilians, to rape civilians, they should understand that it's only a question of time when they all will be in court".

References
Samantha Lock and Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war update: what we know on day 134 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022
Artillery from our Western partners started working very powerfully, so the losses of the occupiers will only increase - address by the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 06 July 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Simon Lewis, “Ukraine battles to push back Russian advance in northern Donetsk,” Reuters, 07 July 2022
Ukraine round-up: 'Massive' shelling and playing dead to survive,” BBC News, 06 July 2022
Ukrainian army repels Russian offensive in three directions,” Ukrinform, 06 July 2022
Mariupol port returns to normal operation — director,” TASS, 07 July 2022
“Francesca Ebel and Maria Grazia Murru, “Russia pounds rebel-claimed region, Ukraine pushes back,” AP News, 06 July 2022
Over 24,000 people evacuated from DPR, LPR, Ukraine to Russia in 24 hours, says ministry,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Lavrov slams Ukraine’s allegations of Russian army attacking Russian cities as lies,” TASS, 06 July 2022
Russia introduces heavy prison terms for calls to act against security,” Kyiv Post, 06 July 2022
Moscow comments on Putin's participation at G20 summit,” RT, 06 July 2022
Darlene Superville, “Biden tells Griner’s wife he’s working to get her home,” AP News, 06 July 2022
Maytaal Angel, “World hunger rising as U.N. agencies warn of "looming catastrophe,” Reuters, 06 July 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Nearly 9m people have fled Ukraine since Russian invasion, says UN,” The Guardian, 06 July 2022
42 countries sign final declaration of Lugano Ukraine Recovery conference,” Kyiv Post, 06 July 2022
Telephone conversation with President of Sri Lanka Gotabaya Rajapaksa,” President of Russia, 06 July 2022
Ukraine alleges thousands of war crimes,” BBC, 06 July 202


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Selva Royan and Sai Pranav

ITALY
Coalition party presents list of demands to Draghi
On 06 July, the leader of the Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte presented prime minister Mario Draghi with a list of demands to ensure support for the coalition government. The demands included a call for minimum wage, protection of the Five Star’s flagship welfare payments and budget alignment to the cost of living crisis. The document mentioned that the party has “accumulated profound political discomfort,” in the Draghi government and needed  “a clarifying discussion.” (Hannah Roberts, “Italy’s 5Stars present Draghi with list of demand,” POLITICO, 06 July 2022) 

GERMANY
New migration bill makes achieving PR easier in Germany
On 06 July, Germany approved a new migration bill that allowed migrants, who lived in Germany for many years without permission, a permanent residency. This new bill was approved by the cabinet and would apply to those that resided for at least five years by 01 January 2022. Those that qualify for the conditions must apply for a one-year residency and then later go for the permanent residency application. They should have enough earnings to make an independent living, should know to speak German, and should be integrated into German society. People below the age of 27, can request permanent residency after staying in Germany for three years. The bill will integrate refugees who are seeking safety easily into Germany by providing them with language classes. The bill will also make the deportation of criminals easier. (Kristen Grieshaber, "Germany eases path to permanent residency for migrants," Associated Press, 06 July 2022)

SPAIN
San Fermin bull-running festival starts with celebrations
On 06 July, the world-famous sport of Spain, San Fermin bull-running festival in the city of Pamlona started off with “chuinazo” fireworks and celebrations. The fireworks were ignited by former soccer player Juan Carlos Unzue, who was diagnosed with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) in 2018. He dedicated the fireworks to those suffering from the disease and to create awareness. The bull run festival was canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The celebrations were interrupted by animal activists disguised as dinosaurs to protest against the sport. They marched under the banner “Bullfighting is Prehistoric.” (“Spain's Pamplona Bull Run festival returns after two years,” Deutsche Welle, 06 July 2022)

REGIONAL
European Parliament votes in favor to label natural gas and nuclear power as green 
On 06 July, the European Parliament approved the categorizing of natural gas and nuclear power plants as "climate friendly investments." The proposal to label them as green was initiated in the EU taxonomy and gained criticism from many member states of the EU including Austria, Luxembourg and Germany. The opposition grew as the states were phasing out nuclear power plants. Upon the approval, the countries have warned to file suit against the European Parliament. ("European Parliament backs listing nuclear energy, gas as 'green'," Deutsche Welle, 06 July 2022)

Czech Republic universities hesitant to follow the EU sanction on Russian students
On 06 July, Czech Republic universities are being compelled to follow the EU sanction of restricting Russian students from studying any technical courses. Many universities are hesitant to obey the EU sanction due to them being autonomous. According to the Europe-wide sanction, Russian students who are studying technical subjects were told to either stop their education or switch degrees. The EU worries that the Russian students would aid the rogue nation in its war against Ukraine using their technical skills. Russian students who are in Czech Republic universities denounce any support for Putin but are afraid of the consequences that their families who reside in Russia might have to bear. The universities are reluctant to throw out the students. The Russian students have written letters of their support against Putin and the Ukrainian war. (Lubos Palata, "Czech Republic: Russian university students face restrictions," Deutsche Welle, 06 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
FBI and MI5 join hands to tackle Chinese espionage threats
On 06 July, heads of the US investigation agency FBI and the UK intelligence MI5 met with business leaders in London to caution them about Chinese spying on them to disrupt the western economy and national security. They also warned about the Chinese government stealing western technologies for their gain. Both FBI Director Christopher Wray and MI5 Director-General Ken McCallum had called for unity against Chinese espionage and they had thought about the consequences it brings about to the western nations. They are ready to defend Taiwan if the need arises in the future. The democratic island was said to be under communist China's control due to the 'One China' policy but if it decides to invade Taiwan, both nations would support the island. As China is preparing its economy for sanctions by insulating it, the US and the UK are ready to face any threats that the communist nation might throw at them. (Amanda Rivkin, "FBI, MI5 warn Western business leaders about Chinese espionage," Deutsche Welle, 06 July 2022)

 


06 July 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #246

European Commission approves Nature Restoration Law: Five takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 132

Photo : European Commission


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

European Commission approves Nature Restoration Law:  Five takeaways

On 22 June, the European Commission adopted the proposal on “Nature Restoration Law” which targets to restore the EU’s land and sea, with a specific focus on habitats and species. The proposal lays down key provisions to not only improve and re-work the existing laws towards wetlands, forests, and lakes, but it also provides a restoration plan for pollinating insects, river connectivity, forest, urban, agricultural, and marine ecosystems. The adopted proposal is expected to come into practice from 12 July (20 days from the publishing of the proposal). EU countries will get two years to submit their national targets and their approach to achieving the targets. Upon which the European Environmental Agency will form technical reports to assess the progress. Later, the reports will be forwarded to the European Parliament and Council.

Five Takeaways
First, renewed attempts to restore nature and biodiversity. The first attempt of the EU, as part of its Biodiversity Strategy 2020 to draft laws and implement a procedure to conserve and restore nature failed to materialize. The second attempt of the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 adds legal value to nature restoration efforts. Although the target set by the European Commission to bring back 20 per cent of the land and sea area by 2030 does seem promising, achieving the same across the targeted ecosystems seems like a high-end goal.

Second, declining plant biodiversity on land and sea. The EU has found its environments around peatlands, grasslands, and dunes to be affected by close to 80 per cent, and mainly 50 per cent of its Wetlands located in the Western, Central to have been eroded since 1970. This is mainly due to the increase in GHG and removal of land which has affected the natural carbon removal process. Apart from this, the soil quality has gone down by 70 per cent resulting in a loss in agricultural produce of EUR 1.25 billion.

Third, the challenge of extinction of species on land and sea. Species such as three bees, and butterflies are one amongst 10 species under the threat of extinction. Such species which are called pollinators are important for terrestrial ecosystems, and food security, and contribute immensely to agricultural yield. The law also brings a new focus on marine habitats such as fish which have reduced by 71 per cent and the amphibian population has shrunk by 60 per cent. It is mainly due to the problem of overfishing and not allowing time to breed.

Fourth, addressing nature restoration. When it comes to deciphering the restoration, strategies opted by the EU, the approach to bring back the grasslands, wetlands and peatland have been laid briefly to include different cultivation methods, and sustainable farming methods, it is not in the case of dunes. For conserving the soil, the EU has opted the EU soil strategy 2030 which covers both soils on land and subsoil in the seabed to maintain the minerals and organic carbon through rewetting practices. To promote healthy marine ecosystems and fishing practise, it has a marine strategy to address the deterioration of fisheries and marine habitats, with regards to Amphibians the law does not provide any key provision to address the decline. The same applies to increasing the pollinator species population where the problem is well highlighted in the provision but the way or methods to be taken by the member states to address the issue are absent.

Five, “One Health” and food system as the driving force. The overall nature restoration law seems to be drafted targeting “One health” and ensuring a continuous supply of food aimed at food security. The concept of one health is to maintain the food supply chain for all organisms from humans, animals, and marine beings to the whole nature and ecosystem. Thereby the regulations and provisions that form part of the Nature Restoration Law produce a holistic plan to bring back the depreciating nature, and animal species in a way to stop the further degradation of nature and help maintain the earth’s nature.

Reference
"Proposal for a Nature Restoration Law," The European Commission, 22 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 132
By Emmanuel Selva Royan
 
War on the Ground
On 05 July, president Zelenskyy in his virtual address to the opening of the 26th annual economist government roundtable conference stated that the only way the world can make Russia end the conflict in Ukraine and its aggressive foreign policy is by applying consistent pressure on all fronts.

Separatists backed by Russia have taken control of two foreign-flagged ships in Mariupol, a port city in eastern Ukraine, and declared them to be "state property." After being under siege for several months, Mariupol, which is located on the southern coast of Ukraine, was captured by Russian and rebel forces in May.

Also on the same day, Ukrainian defense ministry spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanuk stated that the Russian Combined Arms Armies, forces of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and tank and Airborne forces are currently active in the Donbas and attempting to advance on Slovyansk. The Ukrainian general staff had also informed that Russian forces conducted an airstrike near Siversk and fired on residential buildings in Serebryanka, a settlement five kilometers northeast of Siversk directly along the Luhansk-Donetsk Oblast border.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 05 July, in its second reading, the Russian State Duma approved a law that labels treason to the extent of defecting to the enemy during hostilities. The bill adds a new offense, "defection to the enemy amid an armed conflict, hostilities, or other action … that Russia participates in," to article 275 of the Russian Criminal Code. Defection is described in the bill as "participating in forces of foreign state, international, or foreign organization, which directly oppose Russia in an armed war, hostilities, or other action, with the use of weapons and military vehicles."

The parliament also approved two bills that will require industries to supply the military with goods and work extensively. Deputy prime minister Yuri Boriso stated: "The load on the defense industry has increased significantly. In order to guarantee the supply of weapons and ammunition, it is necessary to optimize the work of the military-industrial complex and enterprises that are part of cooperation chains."  

Also on the same day, the Russian diplomat Yevgeny Ustinov condemned the UN high commissioner for human rights Michelle Bachelet‘s report on the situation in Ukraine claiming that it is a part of a campaign to spread lies about Moscow's actions. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 July, the participants of the Ukraine Recovery conference signed the Lugano Declaration in Switzerland. The declaration outlined a set of principles for rebuilding Ukraine. The Lugano principles emphasized that "“the recovery process has to contribute to accelerating, deepening, broadening and achieving Ukraine’s reform efforts and resilience in line with Ukraine’s European path.” The document called for Ukraine to be rebuilt in a "sustainable manner" and for the rehabilitation process to be "inclusive and achieve gender equality." During the conference, the president of Switzerland announced to fund Ukraine an addition of CHF 100 million by the end of 2023. Furthermore, the Kingdom of the Netherlands has also allocated EUR 200 million in loans for Ukraine’s public sector operations through the International Monetary Fund.

Also on 05 July, the prime minister of the UK Boris Johnson in a phone call with president Zelenskyy said that he believed Ukraine’s military could recapture territory taken over by the Russian forces. He also informed him that ten self-propelled artillery systems and loitering munitions from the UK will be arriving soon. Furthermore, the deputy head of the UK delegation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) Deirdre Brown reported on the devastating cost for civilians in the war in Ukraine at the OSCE permanent council meeting. She called upon Russia to abide by the “principles of proportionality and distinction, and to immediately cease the indiscriminate use of wide-area impact weapons in civilian areas.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 05 July, the UN high commissioner for human rights Michelle Bachelet stated that there have been 270 cases of verified arbitrary imprisonment of civilians by the Russian military and other armed groups in Ukraine and announced plans to increase monitoring. The findings were based on evidence from field visits by the monitors, interviews with little over 500 victims and witnesses of human rights breaches, and other sources of information. Furthermore, the UN Food Agency (FAO) reported that they have received USD 17 million from Japan to fund the grain storage infrastructure in Ukraine to control the rising food prices.

On 04 July, at the tenth World Peace Forum Russian and Western diplomats clashed over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia's ambassador to China, Andrey Ivanovich Denisov, refuted the US ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, who claimed that Russia's military actions in Ukraine posed the greatest threat to the current international system.

The forum urged major powers to find a way to contain the impact of the conflicts' spillover effects and concentrate on areas of shared interest, such as preserving peace and the current international order supported by the UN Charter and international law.

Also on the same day, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for the Kremlin, stated that Russia has no doubt that the Uzbek government will make an aggressive effort to address the problems the country is currently experiencing. Peskov referred to the country as Russia's "ally and key partner" and said that what is taking place is an internal matter during a press conference.

References
President: Democracy and freedom will be protected as long as Europe and the world can support Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 05 July 2022
 Jonathan Saul, “Russian separatists seize two foreign ships in Mariupol,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
Russian parliament passes first vote on war economy measures,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5,” Institute for the study of war, 05 July 2022
Russian State Duma equals defection during armed conflict to treason - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 05 July 2022
Russia slams UNRC report on Ukraine as mendacious - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 05 July 2022
Belarus freezes foreign holdings in 190 companies,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
Russia not going to withdraw from OSCE — Russian senatorReuters, 05 July 2022
Russia's defense chief prioritizes tasks in Ukraine special operation
Netherlands allocates EUR 200M loan for Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 05 July 2022
Switzerland to increase support for Ukraine to 100M francs,” Kyiv Post, 05 July 2022
Ukraine, allies adopt principles for reconstruction,” Kyiv Post, 05 July 2022
Boris Johnson to Zelenskiy: Ukraine can retake territory from Russia,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
Maytaal Angel, “UN's FAO receives $17 million for Ukraine grain storage,” Reuters, 05 Jul 2022
Russia's intensified attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE,” Government of UK, 05 July 2022
Arbitrary detention widespread in Russian-held parts of Ukraine - UN rights chief,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
US, Russian envoys clash over Ukraine crisis at Beijing forum as Chinese experts call on major powers to control 'spillover effect',” Global Times, 05 July 2022
Russia says Uzbek leadership will handle protests in Karakalpakstan,” Anadolu Agency, 05 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
France repatriate Syrian women and children from Kurdish camps
On 05 July, the foreign ministry in France repatriated 35 children and 16 mothers from Kurdish-run camps in northern Syria. The camps were allegedly holding family members of suspected Islamic State jihadists. The statement by the foreign ministry said that the minors were handed over to child protection services. However, the mothers will face judicial proceedings shortly. Until now, France’s policy has been to give primacy to the their own internal security over the welfare concerns of the detained. However, this repatriation effort will be the largest since the ousting of the Islamic State in 2019. (“France repatriates 51 from Syria camps in policy change,” France24, 05 July 2022)

NORWAY
Forced settlement ends the Norwegian oil and gas workers' strike
On 05 July, the Labour ministry of Norway intervened in the strike conducted by the Lederne union members. The workers from Norway's largest oil and gas producer, Equinor, went on a strike over an increase in their wages during the inflation. The strike was terminated by the government stepping in to impose a forced settlement. If the strike had continued, almost 60 per cent of Norway's energy export would have been cut short. Many West European countries now rely on Norway for their energy supply and a prolonged strike would have created difficulties for them. (Gwladys Fouche, Nora Buli and Victoria Klesty, “Norway oil and gas workers end strike as government steps in,” Reuters, 06 July 2022; “Norway's government ends oil and gas strike,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2022)

THE UK
Two prominent Cabinet ministers resign from the government
On 05 July, Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak quit Boris Johnson's government due to differences in opinions. Javid, who was the former health minister, said that he could not continue to work for Johnson under good conscience. Sunak, the former finance minister, said that the conduct of the leadership was bad and it might affect their name too. Reportedly, the attitude of the prime minister regarding the scandals and the way Johnson handled the narrow no-confidence vote upset both individuals. The competency of Johnson as a leader and his lack of looking at the nation's interests were also distressing to the former ministers. The resignation of these two ministers could lead to the eventual collapse of Boris Johnson's administration. (“UK Cabinet ministers resign over Boris Johnson's leadership,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2022)

UKRAINE
Ukraine-born mathematician becomes second ever woman to win the Fields Medal
On 05 July, Ukraine’s Prof Maryna Viazovska, teaching at the École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, became the second woman ever to receive the Fields Medal. Her work deals with a 400 year old puzzle on packing spheres. The prestigious field medal is given to mathematicians of great caliber under the age of 40, and is considered an equivalent of a Nobel prize for mathematics. Along with her, three other mathematicians, Prof James Maynard from Oxford University Hugo Duminil-Copin from the University of Geneva and Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques, and June Huh of Princeton University were also announced as winners of the prize. (Nicola Davis and Ian Sample, “Fields medal: Kyiv-born professor and Oxford expert among winners,” The Guardian, 05 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Criminal operations conducted by Europol across five countries
On 05 July, Europol conducted a huge operation against human trafficking criminal network. Over 130 suspects across Germany, the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands were arrested due to them being part of the massive human trafficking criminal network across the English Channel to get to the UK. Europol along with Eurojust and local police conducted the raid and arrested around 18 people just in Germany. Around ten thousand migrants had been smuggled across the English Channel through dangerous and small inflatable boats that had many people on board. Many of the people who were smuggled were from war-torn countries like Iran and Iraq. The raid was said to be the largest international criminal operation ever to take place in Europe.(John Silk, “Police carry out Europe-wide raids targeting human trafficking,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2022; “Suspected people smugglers arrested across Europe,” BBC News, 05 July 2022)

Euro experiences worst slump since 2002
On 05 July, it was reported that Eurozone’s shared currency, the Euro has fallen to a 20-year low against the US Dollar. It slumped by 1.3% against USD 1.0281 and is the weakest since December 2002. This dip comes as a part of a long-term trend, and is exacerbating fears of a recession in the 19-nation Eurozone. Other currencies related to the euro like the Hungary’s forint, Poland’s zloty and Romania’s leu have also fallen considerably against the US currency. (“Euro falls to 20-year low against the dollar,” Deutsche Welle, 05 July 2022)

The stock market falls due to recession panic
On 05 July, European stock markets plummeted down to a 20-year record low and the value of the euro against the dollar hit the lowest ever whereas the pound hit the lowest since the pandemic. The fear of recession slumped the stock market in Europe. Oil and Gas prices that are soaring are the main cause of the worries about the recession. The soaring inflation pushes the central banks of Europe to desperately increase the interest rate thereby burdening the investors. The strike in Norway has also contributed to the rising energy prices. The stock rate fell in New York as well as in the UK. The interest rates on government bonds of the US, the UK, and the Eurozone have also tumbled. (Graeme Wearden, “European stock markets tumble on rising fears of recession,” The Guardian, 05 July 2022)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Finnish researchers install a sand battery
On 05 July, BBC reported that researchers have successfully installed a ‘sand battery’ which stores green power for months. The device uses low-grade sand and is charged with heat from solar or wind energy. Hence heat, which is stored at around 500 degrees Celsius can then be used to warm homes in the winter. The project was conducted by a team of researchers from Finland working with a small power plant in Kankaanpää. (Matt McGrath, “Climate change: 'Sand battery' could solve green energy's big problem,” BBC News, 05 July 2022)

Snow melting faster near Sonnblick Observatory
On 05 July, The Guardian reported that snow at the highest observatory in the world is expected to melt earlier than usual. The Sonnblick Observatory, in Austrain Central Alps, is 10,190 feet above sea level. They reported that this year, the snow started to melt more than a month before the time that had been recorded so far. The observatory, which records snow levels every 10 minutes along with other data said that the heatwave across Europe is one of the main reasons for the early melting of snow in the region. (Helena Horton, “Snow at one of world’s highest observatories melting earlier than ever before, The Guardian, 05 July 2022


05 July 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #245

War in Ukraine: Day 131

Photo : Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 131
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 04 July, the governor of Kharkiv, Oleh Synyehubov said that missiles hit a school in the region. The Donetsk People’s Republic said that Ukraine’s forces shelled 15 of the 240 settlements under their control, in the region. Reportedly, five people were killed and 20 were injured. Moreover, Ukraine’s forces are targeting Russian military infrastructure with indirect fire and with HIMARS systems which have been provided by the US. They struck Russian ammunition depots in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia.
 
The Governor of Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai, told Reuters that Bakhmut in the Donetsk region was facing increased shelling after the fall of Lysychansk. Gaidai spoke to Reuters after the withdrawal of troops was reported from Lysychansk. He said that after their capture of the Luhansk region, Russia’s forces are likely to move into Sloviansk city and Bakhmut town. He also mentioned that while the fall of Luhansk is indeed a ‘painful’ affair for him, it is still not the end of the war for Ukraine. Reflecting on what could be Russia’s immediate strategy, he said: “They (Russian forces) will not transfer 100% of their troops to some front because they need to hold the line. If they leave their positions, then ours can carry out some kind of counter-offensive.”
 
On 04 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Sweden’s Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson. In his nightly address, he informed that primarily a new defence package was discussed. During the meeting with Andersson, he said that Ukraine is conducting talks with Turkey and the UN to facilitate a smooth export of grains from Ukraine’s ports. Zelenskyy also addressed the fall of Lysychansk and said that with the help of long-range Western weapons, Ukraine will surely regain control over the area.
 
Moreover, Zelenskyy met with senior politicians from Ukraine and spoke about the USD 750 billion recovery plan of Ukraine. The plan has 27 sectors and has is into two stages- the medium term (2023-2025) and the long term (2026-2032). Prime minister Denys Smhyal elaborated on the sectors that would need immediate attention. He said that there has been direct infrastructural damage worth USD 100 billion so far, including 1,200 educational institutions, 200 hospitals and thousands of kilometres of gas pipelines, water and electricity networks, roads and railways.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 04 July, in a televised meeting with Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, President Vladimir Putin congratulated the forces for their victory in the Luhansk region. He also suggested that the members of the forces should rest and recover from the recent ordeal. Shoigu provided an elaborate list of Ukraine’s losses in Luhansk. He said 2,218 military personnel from Ukraine had been killed and 3,251 wounded; 196 tanks and armoured vehicles, 12 aircraft, one helicopter, 69 drones, six long-range surface-to-air missile systems, 97 multiple rocket launchers among other things have been affected by this recent offensive by Russia.
 
On the same day, Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, released photos of Russian cosmonauts on the International Space Station (ISS). They were shown holding the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk. Roscosmos also released a statement regarding the same and said: “This is a long-awaited day that residents of the occupied areas of the Luhansk region have been waiting for eight years. We are confident that 3 July 2022 will for ever go down in the history of the republic.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 04 July, the European Investment Bank proposed a new funding structure, similar to the one used for Europe during the COVID 19 pandemic, for rebuilding Ukraine. They have suggested up to EUR 100 billion of investment for the same. They clarified that through the EU-Ukraine Gateway Trust Fund, they will ask member countries to initially contribute EUR 20 billion in the form of grants, loans and guarantees.

On 03 July, Turkey stopped a Russian cargo ship off its Black Sea coast. It has been alleged that the ship was carrying grains stolen from Ukraine. Turkey’s senior official has said that the allegations are being investigated thoroughly. Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar said: "We have full cooperation. The ship is currently standing at the entrance to the port, it has been detained by the customs authorities of Turkey."

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

Syria’s ambassador to Russia, Riad Haddad said that they are aware of Kremlin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and were in full support of the same. He highlighted that this was important for Russia’s national security. According to the Haddad, Russia is having to deal with mercenaries and a misleading media war waged by the West. He also mentioned that the economic blockade on Russia is ‘unjust’ and is similar to what the West had done in Syria. 

References
Samantha Lock and Tom Ambrose, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 132 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 04 July 2022
Tom Balmforth, “Russia will focus on Ukraine's Donetsk region after taking Luhansk, regional governor says,” Reuters, 04 July 2022
The recovery of Ukraine is not only about what needs to be done after the victory, but also about what we and our partners should do now - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 04 July 2022
Zelenskiy says Ukraine is in talks with Turkey, UN on grain exports,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
Patrick Wintour, “Ukraine lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’ for postwar future,” The Guardian, 04 July 2022
Meeting with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu,” President of Russia, 04 July 2022
Martin Belam, “Russia releases photo of cosmonauts holding Luhansk flag on ISS,” The Guardian, 04 July 2022
Russian offensive campaign assessment, July 4,” Institute for the Study of War, 04 July 2022
EU lending arm aims to raise 100 bln euros to help rebuild Ukraine,” Reuters, 04 July 2022
Orhan Coskun, “Turkey halts Russian ship, investigates Ukrainian claims -senior official,”  Reuters, 04 July 2022
Syria fully backs Russia’s military operation in Ukraine,” TASS, 04 July 2022
"Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkish customs: Envoy," Daily Sabha, 03 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
President Macron to reshuffle his cabinet after June’s election loss
On 04 July, president Emmanuel Macron of France reshuffled his cabinet following the loss of getting a majority in last month's elections. He retained a few prominent ministers while changing the rest. Ministers for defence, finance, and foreign affairs are the same while the portfolios of the rest were shuffled. Ministers who lost their seats in June's election have been replaced by people selected by Macron so that they can rebalance his alliance after the loss. The reshuffling came into fruition because of French political tradition that the ministers who lost their seats should resign from the cabinet. The major change was the removal of the solidarity minister Damien Abad due to him facing rape charges which he denied. ("France: Macron reshuffles Cabinet after election struggles," Deutsche Welle, 04 July 2022)

IRELAND
Government allocates EUR 70 million for the Shared Island find
On 05 June, over EUR 70 million was approved by the government of Ireland for cross-border initiatives. These cross-border initiatives include resuming the restoration of the Ulster Canal, an all-island electric vehicle charging infrastructure scheme, and art investment projects. The money is allocated to the Shared Island Fund, in which the Irish government had already given EUR 50 million in 2021. The restoration of the canal will also include new road bridges, a marina and heritage architecture. The electric car project is said to be delivering charge points in sports clubs and centres all across the island. The all-island partnership will benefit people from all communities and traditions. ("Ulster Canal to benefit from cross-border fund," BBC News, 05 July 2022)

ITALY
Declares a state of emergency after the north faces severe drought
On 04 July, Italy declared a state of emergency for the region around the Po river. The country is facing severe drought in the area surrounding the river Po, which holds roughly a third of the country's agricultural production. This might lead to enforcing water rationing for homes and businesses. Many waterways in North Italy have dried up and the flow is weaker which has led to the seawater seeping inland in turn ruining the crops. The regions that fell under the state of emergency were Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto. To overcome the water shortages, funds of EUR 36.5 million were designated for these regions. The state of emergency took care of people's assistance and relief. Further measures could be taken to prevent the same from happening in the future in central Italy. Prime minister Mario Draghi is contemplating appointing a commissioner to take care of the drought response. ("Italy declares state of emergency for drought-stricken north," Reuters, 05 July 2022)

THE UK
Solar energy becoming the solution to surging energy bills
On 03 July, the UK turned its attention to solar power due to increased energy prices. The UK's citizens have been looking into ways to cut down the expensive energy bills. Solar power getting a reduction in VAT from five per cent to zero grasped the interest of the people. As the cost of living crisis increases day by day, people are choosing green energy products as they are cheaper and healthier for the planet. The government is encouraging the use of solar panels with incentives. The solar energy industry is seeing a boom as many people are turning toward renewable sources of energy. Even businesses like Amazon are looking to use solar energy as the electricity bill along with labour costs increase. There has been a shortage of solar panels in companies that sell them due to the huge demand from the people. (Alex Lawson, "‘It’s hot’: UK interest in solar power heats up as energy bills soar," the Guardian, 03 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 
China issues warning to the UK about having trade talks with Taiwan 
On 04 July, China issued a warning to the UK about having trade talks with Taiwan. Taiwan's chief trade negotiator met with his counterpart from the UK to discuss bilateral trade relations between the two countries and also about joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP) trade bloc. China sent a clear signal to the UK stating that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. Taiwan had submitted a formal application to be a member of the CPTPP just a week after China submitted its application. The UK too is eyeing being a member of the trade bloc and had talks with the minister of Taiwan John Deng. The UK's foreign secretary Liz Truss said on a radio show that the world needed to learn from Ukraine and also that Taiwan be made sure of having the ability to defend itself so that it can maintain peace. (Graham Lanktree, "UK risks Chinese anger over trade talks with Taiwan," POLITICO, 04 July 2022)

Israel and Poland to improve their deteriorated relation
On 04 July, relations between Israel and Poland resumed after they had fallen apart due to the world war two-property incident. Poland introduced a law that limited the chance of the Jews recovering their world war two properties. The bill affected the properties that were confiscated by the Nazi German occupiers and secured by Poland's communist rulers after the war. Leaders of both nations agreed to restore their relations and improve them. Both countries would send official ambassadors to each other. If any problems arise between the two nations, they would be solved through sincere and open dialogue and in a spirit of mutual respect. ("Israel, Poland to restore relations strained by Holocaust restitution row," Reuters, 05 July 2022)


04 July 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #244

Morocco: Three issues faced by migrants in Melilla | War in Ukraine: Day 129 & 130

Photo : AP Photo/Manu Fernandez


IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee

Morocco: Three issues faced by migrants in Melilla

Issue in background
On 24 June, around 2000 people tried entering Spain’s enclave Melilla, from Morocco. 133 of them reached Melilla.  However, in the chaos, a stampede occurred and Morocco’s authorities reported a death toll of 23 people. Moreover, 76 migrants were wounded. It was revealed in the aftermath that the stampede was exacerbated by Moroccan border guards who used tear gas and batons, while Spanish agents fired rubber bullets to disperse those trying to climb the border fence.
 
Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez spoke about Spain and Morocco’s effective collaboration on the issue. He blamed the “mafias and criminals who organize violent actions” for the attack and thanked the Moroccan police for their work. However, Morocco blamed Algeria for the incident. The Moroccan Embassy in Madrid mentioned that the Migrants entered Morocco via Algeria due to the country’s “deliberate laxity” at the Morocco-Algeria border.
 
Algeria which backs the self-determination of the Western Sahara region is thus at odds with Spain, over their support of Morocco's claims on the region. They expressed anger about how the chaos was being treated. A diplomat Amar Belani called the deaths a "massacre.”
 
The reaction from the international community has been strong too. The EU's commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson said that the situation was "deeply troubling” and "forced, and violent, crossing can never be condoned". The African Union Commission chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, called for “an immediate investigation”. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet, reiterated a similar sentiment and called on both countries to conduct an effective and independent investigation about the same.
 
Migration crisis: Three issues

First, Morocco as a transit point into Spain and Europe. This is not the first time that migrants have tried to reach Spain from Morocco. Morocco also acts as a destination and transit point for migrants escaping conflict, violence, lack of opportunities, impacts of climate change or economic difficulties from North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Spain is not necessarily the destination of these refugees. However, since Ceuta and Melilla, the two autonomous cities under Spain are in North Africa it creates a pathway to Europe in general.

Second, mutual migration policy, given improving Spain-Morocco relations. This incident comes amidst a controversial shift in relations between Spain and Morocco. Morocco and Spain had a longstanding dispute over Western Sahara. However, after decades of neutrality Madrid recently favoured Morocco's claims to the territory. In April, they also renewed their migration cooperation commitments. Allegedly, this agreement is based on an abusive model which the EU uses for migration and asylum. While Spain’s PM has supported Morocco’s handling of the incident, members from other parties in the ruling coalition have criticized Spain’s externalizing its borders.

Third, racial differences in Spain regarding the treatment of refugees. The response of Spain with regards to migrants has been racially motivated. There have been severe crackdowns resulting in the death of migrants from Africa. However, the same is not true for refugees and migrants from Ukraine. According to the Spanish government, since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Spain has provided temporary protection to more than 124,000 Ukrainian refugees.
 
References
Renata Brito “Thousands protest migrant deaths at Spain-Morocco border,” AP News, 01 July 2022
Morocco/Spain: Horrific Migrant Deaths at Melilla Border,” Human Rights Watch, 29 June 2022
Ahmed Eljechtimi and Graham Keeley, “Dozens of migrants piled together at Melilla border fence,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
Guy Hedgecoe, “Melilla migrant deaths spark anger in Spain,” BBC News, 26 June 202


War in Ukraine: Day 129 & 130
By Emmanuel Royan
 
War on the Ground
On 03 July, after an intense battle for the important city of Lysychansk in the Luhansk region, the Russian forces strengthened the positions around the city and forced the Ukrainian army to withdraw. Ukraine’s general staff stated that "After heavy fighting for Lysychansk, the Defense Forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw from their occupied positions and lines."  
 
On the same day, the Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian weapons stockpile at the airfield in Melitopol using HIMARS rocket artillery systems supplied by the US. Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, said that two attacks were made by Ukrainian forces on one of the four Russian depots there.
 
Also on 03 July, the Ukrainian military intelligence directorate (GUR) stated that the Russian government's failure to pay its firms backing Russia's war in Ukraine is affecting the ability to repair damaged vehicles. According to the GUR, the Russian military has not paid the heads of Russian military vehicle repair facilities for earlier work, hence they are refusing to take new equipment for repair.
 
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Belarusian leader's remarks amounted to a "signal," and his subsequent acts should be closely scrutinized. According to some Ukrainian officials, Belarus might soon take a direct part in the battle.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 July, the Russian minister of defense, general of the army Sergey Shoigu, declared the liberation of the Lugansk People's Republic to Vladimir Putin. The ministry stated that Lysychansk and other adjacent settlements, the largest of which are Belogorovka, Novodruzhek, Maloryazantsevo, and Belaya Gora, are now completely under the authority of the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR. The minister reported that the total area of the regions liberated over the past 24 hours reached 182 square kilometers.
 
On 03 July, the local Border guard service reported that an estimated 17,500 residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic (DPR and LPR) have crossed the border to enter Russia in the Rostov region. The chief of Russia's National Defense management center stated that the Russian army had carried out seven humanitarian operations in DPR and LPR. Around 619 tonnes of humanitarian aid were given to the people. On 02 July, 421.7 tonnes of daily essentials and food aid were delivered to the people in the Zaporizhzhia region. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 03 July, the US government-backed Open Technology Fund is assisting firms that provide virtual private networks (VPNs) for free to Russians to access websites blocked by the censor. A spokesperson from Lanter stated that: "Our tool is primarily used by people trying to access independent media so that funding by the OTF has been absolutely critical."  The US is also dispatching two NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems, four counter-artillery radars and up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine as a part of its recent commitment of USD 820 million. 
 
On the same day, president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, stated that he supported Russia wholeheartedly in its military campaign in Ukraine as part of its long-standing commitment to a "unity state" with Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994 and is accused in the West of violating human rights, has permitted Russian soldiers to invade Ukraine using his nation's territory
 
On 03 July, the foreign secretary of the UK, Liz Truss announced that it was collaborating with Ukraine and others to host a conference in 2023 to recover the destruction caused by Russia’s invasion. From 04 July, the Ukraine Recovery Conference (USC2022) in Lugano, Switzerland will bring together a Ukrainian delegation with representatives of other countries, international organizations, and civil society to discuss rebuilding Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 03 July, the prime minister of Australia, Anothony Albanese visits Kyiv to meet president Zelenskyy. During his trip, he visited the cities of Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel. He also committed an aid package worth AUD 100 million which includes drones and 34 armored vehicles. In addition, he will further impose sanctions and travel bans on 16 Russian ministers and oligarchs and terminate the import of gold from Russia. 

References
Ukraine′s military withdraws from Lysychansk as Russia claims control — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 03 July 2022
Ukraine hits Russian military base in occupied Melitopol - exiled mayor,” Reuters, 03 July 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, Institute for the study of war, 03 July 2022
US funds software for Russians to slip past censor,” France24, 03 July 2022
Shoigu reports to Putin on liberating Lugansk People's Republic - Defense Ministry, TASS, 03 July 2022
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220703-us-funds-software-for-russians-to-slip-past-censors
Belarus leader stands with Russia in campaign”, Reuters, 03 July 2022
Phil Stewart and Mike Stone, “US sending Ukraine two surface-to-air missile systems -Pentagon”, Reuters, 02 July 2022
UK to host 2023 Ukraine recovery conference,” Reuters, 03 July 2022
Tiffanie Turnbull, “Ukraine war: Australian PM visits Kyiv, pledges more military aid,” BBC, 03 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

DENMARK

Three killed in a shooting at a shopping mall in Copenhagen 
On 03 July, a 22-year-old  Danish man was arrested and charged with manslaughter for shooting at a shopping center in Copenhagen killing three and injuring several others. After reports of a shooting at the Field's mall in Copenhagen came to the police, armed officers were sent to capture the shooter and calm other people down from panicking. The suspect was arrested at 1548 GMT. He was seen carrying a rifle and its ammunition. The initial investigation states that he was alone. The witnesses said that the man was seen holding a rifle and started shooting at the crowd all of a sudden. The killer was determined to be an Islamic militant. Denmark last saw a militant attack in 2015. (Stine Jacobsen and Nikolaj Skydsgaard, "Denmark in shock as gunman kills three at Copenhagen shopping mall," Reuters, 03 July 2022)

NORTH MACEDONIA
Protest against France's proposal
On 03 July, thousands of people in North Macedonia protested against France's proposal on the country's EU accession. Protesters were led by the right-wing nationalist opposition party VMRO-DPMNE. The proposal was to settle disputes between Bulgaria and North Macedonia, which might eventually lead Bulgaria to lift the veto which was placed on North Macedonia to be a part of the EU. Bulgaria demanded North Macedonia recognize its language due to its Bulgarian roots and to secure rights for the Bulgarian minorities. However, the right-wing party leaders opposed the demand of Bulgaria and  France's proposal stating that they will wait until they accept the civilized Macedonians. ("North Macedonia: Nationalist protesters reject French EU proposal," Deutsche Welle, 03 July 2022)

THE CZECH REPUBLIC 
Fighter jets to be sent to Slovakia to protect its airspace 
On 03 July, prime minister Petr Fiala of the Czech Republic said that the country would provide fighter jets to protect Slovakia's airspace until it has new planes at its disposal. Slovakia had previously asked its NATO allies to help guard its skies after it decided to not use the Soviet-designed MiG-29 aircraft. It is expecting a late delivery of the US-built F-16 fighter jets. Fiala said that Ukraine is not only fighting for its independence but also the liberty and the security of the West. (Clothilde Goujard, "The Czech Republic to protect Slovakia’s airspace from September," POLITICO, 03 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Belarus provides visa-free entry to Polish citizens 
On 01 July, Belarus abolished visa requirements for Polish citizens temporarily to build a good relationship with its neighbour. The visa-free entry will come into force from 01 July and will last till 31 December. The measure helps Poland's nationals travel to the Belarusian border area without special permission, instead, they have to give a verbal explanation for their visit to the area. President Alexander Lukashenko already gave citizens of Lithuania and Latvia visa-free entry till the end of this year. He also denied accusations of Belarus stating: "facilitating illegal migration to try and destabilize the bloc" by the EU. Belarus was also accused of failing to address the vandalism issue on Polish graves and war memorials in Western Belarus. ("Belarus abolishes visa requirements for Polish citizens for six months,"Euronews, 01 July 2022)

New rules to safeguard crypto assets and investors laid by the EU
On 30 June, the EU set rules for how the bloc will oversee crypto. The market in crypto assets bill also called MiCA will set industry standards and investor safeguards for crypto assets and the firms that service them. Although the bill will only come into action in late 2023 or early 2024. The technology has got the vote of the policymakers and companies that want lower transaction fees and democratize finance. The bill is supposed to give confidence to investors who operate in the market and safeguard them to ensure that the crypto companies are liable for their products and services. Another key aspect of the bill is to screen companies that have more than 15 million users. Even though crypto was popular during the pandemic, it took a big hit after new products like non-fungible tokens(NFT) and decentralised finance(DeFi) came into the limelight. ("Bjarke Smith-Meyer, "Brussels agrees on crypto rulebook for the EU," POLITICO, 01 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 
Macron wants to conserve the oceans by stopping deep-sea mining
On 30 June, president Emmanuel Macron of France urged fellow members of the UN to stop deep-sea mining and start investing in scientific research to protect the oceans. He urged for a new legal framework to stop ocean mining and put an end to the activities that might harm the marine environment. He also said the countries should invest in scientific exploration to find ways to protect the ocean. Countries like China, which is the leader in deep-sea mining exploration, and other small Pacific nations are against the idea of stopping it and have asked the UN to fast track the regulations towards sea-bed mining. According to the UN, until the regulations are adopted, seabed mining will be illegal on the high seas. ("Stop deep-sea mining, says Macron, in call for new laws to protect ecosystems," The Guardian, 01 July 2022


02 July 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #243

War in Ukraine: Day 128

Photo : Institute for the Study of War


War in Ukraine: Day 128
By Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 01 July, missiles struck an apartment building and two-holiday camps near Odessa. Reportedly, at least 18 people were killed and dozens were wounded. Odessa’s regional emergency official, Ihor Budalenko informed that 41 people have been rescued from the region. Odesa region governor Maksym Marchenko said that the missiles were Soviet-era Kh-22 missiles, and came from the direction of the Black Sea. President Zelenskyy addressed this incident and said that these attacks were “conscious, deliberately targeted Russian terror and not some sort of error.”

Ukraine has requested Turkiye to seize a Russian-flagged ship off the Turkish coast. While it is not clear where the cargo was obtained from or where it is being shipped to, the ship set sail from Berdyansk. 

On 01 July, Ukraine’s foreign ministry announced that they have introduced visas for Russians willing to visit Ukraine. Since Ukraine’s embassy and consulates in Russia have been closed, people will have to apply at centers run by external service providers in eight cities in Russia. However, people with a visa might be denied entry at the border, as that decision will solely be taken by Ukraine’s border guards.

The head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin spoke about a prisoner exchange between the two countries. He said that 37 members of nationalist battalions of Ukraine have been handed over, as they were uninvolved in war crimes. Pushilin also said that such members will not join active service soon, owing to their grievous injuries. Likewise, Ukraine’s authorities have handed over 49 fighters from Russia.
 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 01 July, president Putin made a statement regarding the West. He said that the collective West was using Ukraine and the Ukrainians as a pawn for their geopolitical games. Addressing a meeting of the Foreign Intelligence Service he said: “this model is nothing but a new version of neo-colonialism and a US-style world order for the chosen ones, where the rights of others are simply trampled on.” 

The chairman of the State Council of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov said that the majority of citizens in Kherson preferred o accede to Russia. On the sidelines of the ninth Forum of Regions of Belarus and Russia in Grodno, Konstantinov reiterated that activists in both Zaporizhia and Kherson regions have been looking forward to becoming a part of Russia from the very beginning.

On 30 June, Russia’s parliament approved legislation that will allow the blocking of foreign news outlets. This is in response to the bans that Russian State media is facing abroad. As per this bill, Russia’s prosecutor general has the right to ban foreign outlets, if they are found to be “hostile” against Russia, without waiting for the court’s approval.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 01 July, the European Council president, Ursula Von der Leyen said that it might take a long time for Ukraine to complete the accession process to the EU. She noted that many crucial reforms were to be made by Ukraine and that it requires “hard work.” She also said: “There is a long road ahead but Europe will be at your side every step of the way, for as long as it takes, from these dark days of war until the moment you cross the door that leads into our European Union.”

The Pentagon announced new aid to Ukraine. The USD 820 million military packages will include new surface-to-air missile systems and counter-artillery radars. Up to 150,000 rounds of millimeter artillery ammunition will also be provided to Ukraine. This marks the 14th military package sent to Ukraine by the US. 

Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Stoere met President Zelenskyy in Kyiv and pledged USD 1.04 billion to Ukraine for their war efforts. He said: “This war is a breach of international law... You have the right to defend yourself and we have the right to help you defend yourself."

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

The Arctic Council announced that they will suspend all contacts with Russia with regards to international Arctic cooperation. Russia’s ambassador-at-large and chair of the Council’s senior arctic officials, Nikolay Korchunov reported to TASS that currently their partners in the Arctic had ‘frozen’ their contacts in “...fields of science, youth ties, and contacts between people.”

On 30 June, United Nations Secretary General’s Spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric spoke about the export of Ukraine’s grains via the Black Sea. He said that it was still too early to anticipate the results. Dujarric said that further announcement will be made only upon a conclusive decision.

References
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 129 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 02 July 2022
Russian missile strikes kill 18 in Ukraine's Odesa region, authorities say,” Reuters, 01 July 2022
Ukraine demands the seizure of Russian-flagged grain ship off Turkey,” BBC News, 01 July 2022
Ukraine receives 37 members of nationalist battalions in prisoner swap, DPR head says,” TASS, 01 July 2022
Ukraine introduces entry visas for Russians,” TASS, 01 July 2022
Putin blames West for using Ukrainian people in geopolitical games,” TASS, 01 July 2022
Most Kherson Region residents advocate joining Russia — official,” TASS, 01 July 2022
Russian Lawmakers Approve Bill to Fast-Track Foreign Media Bans,” The Moscow Times, 30 June 2022
We'll be with you on 'long road' to membership, EU tells Ukraine,” Reuters, 01 July 2022
Norway pledges 1 bln euros to support Ukraine,” Reuters, 02 July 2022”
Arctic Council states suspended contacts with Russia, envoy reveals,” TASS, 01 July 2022
UN refrains from predictions about talks on Ukrainian grain,” TASS, 01 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

CZECH REPUBLIC
Prime minister Petr Fiala set to lead the EU Council presidency
On 30 June, the leaders of the Czech Republic, prime minister Petr Fiala and the minister of European affairs Mikulas Bek assumed the presidency of the EU as it was their turn to lead the bloc. They are presiding over the bloc at a tumultuous time of war, energy crisis, climate change, and a European summit. The leaders primarily focus on helping Ukraine in the war against Russia as the Czech Republic is the second most strong supporter of Kyiv. They have to deal with the coronavirus pandemic too as the virus is spreading rapidly across Europe. The leaders set their priorities straight by focusing on each problem at a time and they adapted the motto "Europe as a task" from the former Czech Republic president. Their goal is to achieve unity among the EU members. The Czech Republic has to preside over the mega summit that will take place in Prague in October 2022 and also have to solve the energy crisis. (Lubos Palatia, "Czech Republic assumes EU Council presidency with confidence and ambition," Deutsche Welle, 30 June 2022)

REGIONAL
Poland's recovery funds are held back until it changes its judiciary reforms 
On 01 July, Warsaw’s EU recovery funds were held up due to an important missing factor in its proposed judicial reforms. The reform looks upon the disciplinary chamber of the Supreme Court which penalizes a judge for the content of their ruling, for asking questions to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), and for validating that other courts are independent and unbiased. The reform was deemed to be not up to the standards of the EU. Warsaw is looking to reform the chamber and create a new body that aligns with the EU's standards. The blockage of the  EUR 35 billion recovery plan was due to the country not obeying the EU's demand of removing the chamber and adhering to the ECJ rulings. Even the new body proposed by president Andrzej Duda has the executive holding too much power over the judiciary. Poland cannot receive the recovery fund until the judiciary reforms are fully implemented in the country that complies with the standards of the European Commission. (Jorge Liboreiro, "Brussels questions Poland's judicial reforms to unlock EU recovery funds," Euronews, 01 July 2022)

The EU creates order for the crypto market with new rules
On 01 July, new rules were passed in the EU regarding cryptocurrencies. The rule stated that cryptocurrency companies should have a license and customer safeguards to issue or sell digital tokens in the EU. The recent fall of the digital currency has led to some issues regarding the freezing of withdrawals, rising interest rates and the collapse of major crypto companies. Even Bitcoin has taken a hit by 70 per cent since its record of USD 69,000 in November. Protecting a consumer's wallet and their crypto assets are the main requirements that are needed to be fixed by the firms. The law will issue providers of crypto assets and related services a "passport" to serve the needs of the clients across the EU from a single base. (Huw Jones and Tom Wilson, EU agrees to tame 'Wild West' with new crypto market rules," Reuters, 01 July 2022)

The inflation rate increased to 8.6 per cent in the EU countries
On 01 June, the inflation rate of the eurozone increased by 8.6 per cent in June. Rising energy prices, the war in Ukraine, global food security, disrupted supply chain and indirect effects of the Chinese lockdown have caused the inflation rate to rise to 8.6 per cent in June compared to 8.1 per cent in May. The alternative energy to cheap Russian oil and gas has become expensive in turn contributing to the rise in energy prices by 41.9 per cent. The price for unprocessed foods such as fruits and vegetables has risen by 11.1 per cent due to increased fertilizers cost. Every EU country has been affected by inflation. The European Central Bank has decided to increase the interest rates if inflation increases further. ("Inflation in the eurozone reaches new record high of 8.6%," Euronews, 01 July 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Germany signs a restitution agreement with Nigeria 
On 01 July, an agreement was signed in Berlin between Germany and Nigeria for the return of the Benin Bronze artifacts. Germany becomes the first European country to return a large number of relics that were stolen in the colonial period to their rightful owner. The agreement formally transferred ownership of the Benin Bronzes to Nigeria with immediate effect. More than 1,130 artifacts were taken from five museums in Germany to be returned to the people of Benin and Nigeria. The items were auctioned in London and Germany acquired the second-largest collection in the world. Only the ownership was transferred through the contract, the artifacts would be slowly moved to Nigeria. It would be placed in museums, institutions, galleries, and in the rebuilt royal palace in Benin City. (Annabelle Steffes-Halmer, "Germany returns Benin Bronzes to Nigeria," Deutsche Welle, 01 July 2022)


01 July 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #242

NATO Summit: Takeaways | NATO New Strategic Concept 2022: Five Takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 127

Photo : nato.int


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan and By Rishma Banerjee

NATO New Strategic Concept 2022: Five Takeaways

On 29 June 2022, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, Spain, the heads of the State and Government revealed the NATOs new Strategic Concept which listed the security challenges of NATO, its purpose and principles, the current strategic environment it faces, and its core tasks of “deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security.” According to NATO secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg: “NATO’s new Strategic Concept is the blueprint for the Alliance in a more dangerous and competitive world.”

Five takeaways
First, emphasis on open dialogue over direct confrontation for peace in Euro-Atlantic. In the previous strategic concept, NATO aimed to establish military cooperation with Russia. At present, the whole equation has turned around. Although NATO is expanding in the region and massively increasing its military power it substantiates the development as building resilience against Russia. This can be viewed as NATO’s deterrence strategy to avoid a direct confrontation and to push Russia for a dialogue.  

Second, growing challenges for NATO. When it comes to NATO’s strategic concept, its core task has remained in ensuring Euro-Atlantic peace. With the growing challenges in terms of Russian aggression, altered security environment, increasing human rights violations, the need to support Ukraine to maintain stability, meet the rising competition, and most importantly deal the authoritarianism. The report has brought out the threats and challenges which need to be addressed by NATO.

Third, NATO’s robust stand against nuclear weapons. NATO assured that the nuclear weapons will be used remotely. Despite its nuclear deterrence position and aim to bring down the strategic risks, it's warning on change in nature of conflict on the deployment of such weapons along with the support from the US for its nuclear forces shows the nuclear capabilities of NATO. This will leave no option for Russia but to settle down for dialogue or slow down its aggression.

Fourth, strengthened deterrence and defence. NATO which circled its military in only developing a collective defence in terms of missiles and weapons systems has now drastically boosted expanding its military capabilities into maritime, cyber, space, and digital transformation along with a special focus on non-military threats such as civil preparedness and civil support to NATO’s forces.

Five, missed focus on NATO’s enlargement. In the enlargement process, NATO has boosted its open-door policy, with Sweden and Finland joining the alliance soon, it will add significant value in terms of territorial and military expansion. But with regards to securing the Balkan front or the Arctic much detail on its strategy has not been given. Even in terms of addressing the effect of climate change it does not form a major part of NATO’s core tasks.

Reference
NATO 2022 Strategic Concept,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 29 June 2022
Strategic Concept 2010,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 19 November 2019


NATO Summit: Five Takeaways

What happened at the summit?
The NATO leaders met on 29 and 30 June 2022 in Madrid, Spain. Leaders of the 30 member countries, crucial NATO partners from Europe, Asia-Pacific partners, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea attended the meeting.

The meeting took place in the backdrop of growing Russian attacks and NATO's expansion in Europe. The two-day summit discussed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, increasing security in member countries and allies, and Sweden and Finland's formal invitation to join NATO.

NATO leaders adopted the new strategic concept. It is a document that states the challenges faced by NATO and provides the necessary political and military steps to be taken by NATO. They agreed to boost the alliance's defence and deterrence capacities and reiterated their support for Ukraine. The alliance also reaffirmed its open-door policy officially inviting Sweden and Finland to join NATO. It gives assurance to protect the territories and sovereignty of its member states and allies. Other issues such as food security, terrorism, climate change, cyber security, and space were also addressed

Five takeaways from the summit
First, change of stance about Russia. The last strategic concept identified Russia as a strategic partner. However, the new one identifies Russia as the "most significant and direct threat." This complete shift results from Russia's actions in Ukraine and their threats of further escalation. The members pledged more military and financial aid to Ukraine; they also discussed the possibility of Russia's attacks on member countries.  Another concern for NATO would be how Russia might be using Belarus to stage attacks.

Second, pre-empting a future attack. At the summit, NATO members decided to augment the NATO forces, especially along the NATO-Russia border in Eastern Ukraine. They will increase NATO's high-readiness contingent, the response force, from 40,000 to 300,000. In addition, the US will establish a permanent headquarters for its V Corps in Poland. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg noted the irony of the situation and said: "Putin wanted less NATO on his borders, but because of his actions, he's getting more."

Third, the further eastward expansion of NATO. Currently NATO has expanded across 14 countries in Eastern Europe. This summit saw Turkey lift their objection to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Thus, leading a direct confrontation with Russia as both Finland and Sweden share land/sea borders. 

Fourth, NATO's Asia-Pacific focus. Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea were invited to attend the summit. These countries share similar values as NATO. Moreover, in this summit, NATO identified China's growing power as a threat. The four countries in the Indo-Pacific are expected to add to NATO's influence in the region against China and thereby expanding NATO's footprint in the region.

Fifth, renewed unity and importance of  NATO. The war in Ukraine has catalyzed a greater unity amongst the member states in NATO. Members unanimously agreeing to support Ukraine in its war efforts, showcases the united stand of the NATO group and the integrated approach towards countering Russia. Before the war, NATO’s efficacy was questioned, but with NATO's involvement in the war and there is renewed attention from the European countries looking up for NATO's collective defence.

References
Despite Ukraine Focus, Asia-Pacific to Play Prominent Role at NATO Summit,” United States Institute of Peace, 27 June 2022
NATO 2020 Strategic Concept,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 29 June 2022
2022 NATO Summit,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 30 June 2022
NATO Countries Signal Resolve at Summit: What Does It Mean for Russia?,” Council of Foreign Affairs, 30 June 2022
Our experts decipher NATO’s new Strategic Concept,” Atlantic Council, 30 June 202


War in Ukraine: Day 127
By Emmanuel Royan
 

War on the Ground
On 30 June, Russian forces departed from the strategic Black Sea outpost of Snake Island. Brigadier General Oleksii of Ukraine's military reported that the Ukrainian forces are yet to occupy the island. The withdrawal of Russian forces from the island may loosen the hold on the Ukrainian ports. 
 
The regional governor of Luhansk, Sergiy Gaiday reported that the last major city in the eastern region of Ukraine that Russia needs to take over is under continuous shelling.  Gaiday stated that the Russians are advancing from all sides with numerous vehicles and artillery. He further mentioned that the operation to evacuate over 15,000 civilians was not possible because of the shelling.
 
Ihor Budalenko, an emergency official for the Odessa region, reported that a missile had struck a building in the village of Serhiivka in the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district at around one in the morning killing 16 people.

 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 30 June, the deputy chairman of security council Dmitry Medvedev stated that when Russia launched the military action to defend Donbas, it did so in complete accordance with the UN charter's right to self defense. Medvedev stated that: "The purpose of the special operation is to protect people who for years have been subjected to inhuman treatment and abuse by the Kyiv regime, which violated all possible standards and norms." 
 
On the same day, the defense ministry reported that the Russian army has withdrawn its garrison from Snake Island as a gesture of goodwill. The move was taken to demonstrate to the world that Russia does not obstruct UN operations  for humanitarian assistance.  Furthermore, the ambassador of the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) to Russia Rodion Miroshnik mentioned that the entire Lisichansk oil refinery was occupied by the Russian Army and the LPR. The allied forces have also taken over the Spornoye settlement in the Donetsk region.

 Also on 30 June, president Putin in a news conference at Ashgabat, affirmed that the special military operation in Ukraine is working as planned and there are no deadlines to be followed. He stated that: "The troops are advancing and reaching those endpoints that are assigned as a task at a certain stage of this combat work. Everything is going according to plan." He also asserted that the objective of the mission has not been amended or shifted since the beginning and the goal is "to create conditions that will guarantee the security of Russia itself."

 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 30 June, the secretary-general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg addressed the press conference post the NATO Summit. He stated that the alliance has agreed to establish a EUR one billion Innovation fund. Which will promote artificial Intelligence to space technologies. On the last day of the summit, the discussion focused on threats from the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region. Along with this, the NATO leaders agreed on building defence capacity of Mauritania, Tunisia, and Jordan. Stoltenberg also highlighted how NATO is getting prepared with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance and briefed on the latest announcement on aiding Ukraine with equipment from both the soviet eras and of modern NATO standards.
 
Also on 30 June, the prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson committed of additional one billion in military aid to Ukraine during the NATO summit will be funded by climate finance underspending. The business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng stated that his department will redirect the “underspends” from climate finance and foreign aid to military aid. Furthermore, the Scottish government has pledged GBP 65 million to the UK’s one billion commitment for the military defense of Ukraine.
 
US president Joe Biden in the press conference during the NATO summit assured the sale of new F-16 jet fighters to Turkey, the decision comes after Turkey agrees for Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Biden announced USD 800 million support for Ukraine he said: "This summit was about strengthening our alliances, meeting the challenges of our world as it is today and the threats we're going to face in the future."

The US department of defense will be stationing its two squadrons of F-35s in the Royal Airforce Base Lakenheath in Suffolk as a part of its commitment to advance the military presence across Europe.
 
On the same day, the chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz called on the EU and Lithuania to lift the restrictions on the movement of freight traffic from Russia to its Kaliningrad exclave. Scholz suggested that sanctions should not apply here as the goods were just transiting between two Russian territories and not for imports to the bloc. 

 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 30 June, president of Indonesia Joko Widodo visited Moscow to meet president Putin and called to solve the global food-supply disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine. He further discussed with Putin on commerce, investment, and tourism between the two counties. He appreciated Putin's assurances of the safe arrival of food and fertilizer from Russia and Ukraine.

Also on the same day, the Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase its oil production by 648,000 barrels a day. However, the cartels plan to increase supply by 50 per cent more than anticipated in July and August hasn't done much to lower prices thus far.
 
References
Ukraine: Russia pulls back forces from Snake Island — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 30 June 2022
Russian missile strikes kill 17 in Ukraine's Odesa region - authorities,” Reuters, 30 June 2022
Medvedev says Russia in its operation in Ukraine used UN-backed right for self-defense - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 30 June 2022
Russian Defense Ministry reports prisoner swap with Ukraine - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 30 June 2022
Russian army draws down from Snake Island in goodwill grain gesture - Military & Defense,” TASS, 30 June 2022
Lisichansk oil refinery taken under control of Russian and LPR forces — ambassador - Military & Defense,” TASS, 30 June 2022
Russia's Ukraine operation going as planned, no need to squeeze it into deadlines — Putin - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 30 June 2022
Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Heads of State and Government (2022 NATO Summit),” NATO, 30 June 2022
Karl Mathiesen, “UK to use climate and aid cash to buy weapons for Ukraine,” POLITICO, 30 June 2022
Hans Von Der Burchard, “Germany’s Scholz urges free transit for Russian goods to Kaliningrad,” POLITICO, 30 June 2022
Scottish ministers pledge £65m to Ukraine war effort,” BBC, 30 June 2022
Summer Said and Benoit Faucon, “OPEC, Allies Agree to Boost Oil Production Ahead of Biden’s Saudi Visit,” the Wall Street Journal, 30 June 2022
Jon Emont, “Indonesia’s Jokowi Visits Ukraine and Russia, Warning Food Crisis Looms,” the Wall Street Journal, 30 June 202
 Goals of Russian special operation in Ukraine have not changed since Feb 24, says Putin - Russian Politics & Diplomacy,” TASS, 30 June 202


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Vegetarian products are banned from being described as animal-based food
On 29 June, France banned the usage of terms like 'steak' and 'sausage' to describe plant-based food products. It is the first EU country to prohibit the usage of the term inappropriate words. The official decree says that plant-based food products terminology should not be associated with real meat ones with the same name.  The sector-based terminology should be followed only for products that belong to the animal kingdom. It has urged the EU to follow the same but the bloc rejected it. ("France bans use of 'steak,' 'sausage' to describe vegetarian products," Deutsche Welle, 30 June 2022)

IRELAND
The Birth Information and Tracing bill passed
On 29 June, the Birth Information and Tracing Bill 2022 was passed as law in Ireland. The bill was signed by president Michael D Higgins of Ireland. The advancement of the bill through Ireland's parliament was described as a historic moment by the minister for children. This bill allowed the adoptees to access their original birth certificates. For those parents who want their identity to be concealed, their adoptee children are given an information session where they are taught to respect each other's right to privacy. The right to access the birth identity information is given to the adopted individuals for the first time in the history of the Republic of Ireland. Measures for smooth contact of the families will be done by the country. While some object to the law deeming it as discriminatory to the people who have to take information sessions due to their parents' wishes not to see them. ("Irish Birth Information and Tracing Bill becomes law," BBC News, 29 June 2022)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Popular brands found greenwashing on their plastic packaging 
On June 30, according to a report, companies such as coca-cola and Unilever have been misleading and greenwashing consumers that their packaging is eco-friendly. In reality, these companies' plastic packaging is sometimes nonrecyclable and not eco-friendly. They have been misleading and lying about their packaging to the consumers. These companies cause more plastic pollution which is contrary to what they advertise as being eco-friendly. Companies such as Kim Kardashian's Skims advertise they are not plastic but print in a small size on the product that they are indeed one. These popular brands present their products as though they are better for the environment but in actuality, they are difficult to recycle or not recyclable at all or use just a tiny portion of ocean-bound plastic. (Sandra Laville, "Coca-Cola among brands greenwashing over packaging, report says," The Guardian, 30 June 2022)

REGIONAL
ECJ ruling made the UK pay EUR 678 million on tax fraud
On 29 June, the UK paid the European Commission over EUR 678 million (GBP 583 million) for a fraud it committed on imported Chinese clothes. The judgement was given by the European Court of Justice to the UK to pay the European Commission EUR 678 million for the tax fraud it engaged in between 2011 and 2017 over Chinese clothing imports. The Commission sued the UK for EUR 2.7 billion in 2018. In its argument, the UK said that it had followed the EU rules before the 2014 introduction of the new method of tax collection for the organization. The UK states that it paid the full amount that it considers due for the period between 2015 to 2017. The UK said that it paid in an interest that protects its taxpayers from significant continued interest accrual. It also said that it would reject any claims put forward by the Commission that does not align with the ECJ ruling. ("UK pays EU £583m after customs ruling on Chinese imports," BBC News, 29 June 2022)

Fifteen people were arrested for human smuggling in the English Channel tragedy
On 29 June, fifteen people were arrested in France on suspicion of having a connection with the English Channel people smuggling incident that happened last November. 27 people who wanted to illegally migrate to the UK died near Calais due to a flimsy boat sank carrying an overpopulated number of people. The French authorities detained 13 men and two women who were suspected of being part of the incident. Some might be charged with manslaughter and people smuggling for their part in the incident. Five people were released without charge, one is placed under formal investigation and the rest are awaiting a court decision on whether to face a formal investigation or not. The majority of the arrested individuals were of Afghani and Pakistani nationality. But most of the people that died in the incident were Kurds from Iraq. Only two men survived the incident, an Iraqi and a Somali. (Tiffany Wertheimer, "Calais migrant crisis: 15 arrested over Channel tragedy," BBC News, 29 June 2022)

Ireland waits for the future UK government to negotiate 
On 29 June, Ireland's deputy prime minister Leo Varadkar said that Ireland's and the EU's further negotiation with the UK will have to wait until the change in government in London. He accused Boris Johnson and his government of being ignorant of people's opinions and seeking quarrels with the EU. Johnson's government has sided with the Democratic Unionist Party in scraping parts of the Northern Ireland protocol which might anger the EU as it violates the Brexit deal. This decision by the UK might undermine the EU's authority. Vardkar said that for trust to be restored, they have to wait for the new government as this one lost its credibility. The EU could be flexible when a reliable negotiating partner emerges in the UK. Post-Boris Johnson would be the best time to negotiate according to the chief of staff of the former prime minister Tony Blair. (Shawn Pogatchnik, "Ireland: Johnson may need to go before Belfast’s Brexit dilemma can be solved," POLITICO, 30 June 2022)


30 June 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #241

War in Ukraine: Day 126 NATO's New Strategic Concept | More combat forces in the eastern flank

Photo : nato.int


War in Ukraine: Day 126
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 28 June, Ukraine’s president addressed the NATO summit and said that it needed more advanced weapons and financial assistance to sustain its war efforts. He reiterated that Ukraine will require about USD five billion every month to rebuild the country. Zelenskyy also mentioned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not only to not only destabilizes Ukraine but also to “dictate conditions in Europe.”
 
Also on the same day, Foreign Minister Dymitro Kuleba appreciated NATO for taking a clear stance on Russia, regarding their invasion of Ukraine. He said: “Today in Madrid, NATO proved it can take difficult, but essential decision… We welcome a clear-eyed stance on Russia, as well as accession for Finland and Sweden. An equally strong and active position on Ukraine will help to protect the Euro-Atlantic security and stability.”
 
On June 29, the mayor of Mykolaiv, Oleksandr Senkevych said that 8 missiles had struck the city. He also mentioned that an X-55 cruise missile allegedly hit residential buildings and urged the citizens to evacuate.
 
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said that Ukraine had its biggest prisoner of war exchange since the beginning of the war. 144 soldiers who have defended Mariupol’s Azov Steelworks have been released. Amongst them, 43 members were from the Azov regiment that Russia considers a dangerous far-right battalion.
 
A US soldier, Alexander Drueke, captured in eastern Ukraine, said that he had not fired even a single shot. He asked for leniency from the Russia-backed separatist authorities and said that his on-ground experience was only for the day he was captured outside Kharkiv.
 
On 29 June, the Russia-backed military-civilian administration in Kherson reported that it has started preparations for a referendum about joining Russia. However, the deputy head of the administration, Kirill Stremousov said that a date has not yet been chosen.


The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 29 June, Russia’s diplomat Maria Zakharova accused the UK’s defence secretary Ben Wallace of spreading fake news and making remarks about her. Zakharova said: “cite at least one example of how I am threatening to nuke everyone every week.” This comes as Wallace had made offensive remarks about Russia’s officials and the president.
 
Russia’s government mentioned that it had not dropped the idea of taking over Western-owned assets and businesses in response to the actions imposed. Zakharova warned the West to keep away from the USD 300 billion of frozen funds else Russia would “act accordingly.” In addition, a Russian cola company stated that with the suspension of Coke and Pepsi in Russia, it plans to increase the production of the indigenous coke called Cola Chernogolovka.
 
Also, on 29 June, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin warned of retaliation if NATO deployed troops and infrastructure in Finland and Sweden. He added: “if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in kind and create the same threats for the territories from which threats towards us are created.” Putin’s comments come a day after Turkey accepted to lift its veto over Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO.
 
On the same day, Russia’s supreme court postponed the hearing on designating Ukraine’s Azov regiment as a terrorist entity. The hearing is now scheduled for 02 August. Moscow has characterized the regime as “Russian-hating neo-Nazis,” but the court had not added the regiment to the list of terrorist organizations.
 
On the same day, TASS reported on NATO, saying it considered Russia the current “most significant and direct threat.” NATO adopted its strategic concept at the meeting in Madrid, where it recognized Russia as the primary threat to its security alliance.
 
Also, on 29 June, Syria announced its recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republic. On 16 June, Russia’s presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in a meeting with Syria’s president Bashar Assad said Moscow would hail Damascus’ decision to recognize the DPR and the LPR.


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 29 June, NATO released details about their new strategic concept and identified Russia as the most significant threat to Western security. The organization said that they will assist in modernizing Kyiv’s armed forces. It also decided on a seven-fold increase in combat forces along its eastern flanks to pre-empt any future Russian attacks. Reportedly, the number of troops will be raised from 40,000 to 300,000.
 
On the sidelines of the NATO summit, Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz said that NATO will support the war efforts of Ukraine for as long as possible. He said: “It is good that the countries that are gathered here but many others, too, make their contributions so Ukraine can defend itself - by providing financial means, humanitarian aid but also by providing the weapons that Ukraine urgently needs.”

US president Joe Biden pledged more American troops in Europe, especially to reinforce the Baltic states and Poland. He also promised to supply more warplanes and warships to the alliance.
 
The US director of national intelligence, Avril Haines said that President Putin will still be aiming to annex most of Ukraine. However, Haines mentioned that it is likely that Russia’s combat forces are depleted and thus they can only hope to achieve incremental gains. She said: "We perceive a disconnect between Putin's near-term military objectives in this area and his military's capacity, a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to accomplish.” She also elaborated that Russia will be more likely to be reliant on asymmetric tools like cyber attacks, controlling energy, and even nuclear weapons to “project power and influence globally.”
 
Poland’s president Andrej Duda said that they support US’s decision to establish the 5th Army's Headquarters and send more troops. He said, "This is news that we have been waiting for a long time… It is a fact that strengthens our safety a lot... in the difficult situation which we are in."
 
The British government said that they will provide an additional GBP one billion in military support. Prime minister Boris Johnson said in a statement that UK’s training and equipment are transforming Ukraine’s defence. Hundreds of Ukraine’s troops have been receiving military training in the UK, especially on the Multiple Launch Rocket Systems that the UK is supplying Ukraine with. This new support will be to further boost Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including its air defence systems, unscrewed aerial vehicles, and new electronic warfare equipment.

The​ Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
​​​​​​
On 29 June, the G7 leaders mentioned that they urged China to mediate and use its influence on Russia and seek an end to the invasion. The G7 also asked China to drop its “expansive maritime claims” in the South China Sea. China also responded and stated that sanctions on Russia would not be able to resolve the crisis in Ukraine and criticized the US for supplying arms and ammunition to Kyiv.
 
On the same day, the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, said it had lost transmission from Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The IAEA has been asking Russia to dispatch a mission to Zaporizhzhia for the past few weeks, and the recent disruption showed the urgency.
 
Also on 29 June, Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo visited Kyiv and met with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Widodo offered to convey any message that Zelenskyy had for Putin. Widodo added: “Even though it’s very hard to achieve, I expressed the importance of a peace resolution.” Widodo is also due to go to Moscow and offered to mediate between Putin and Zelenskyy.
 
On 29 June, South Korea’s president Yoon Suk-yeol expressed his concerns about Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine. Yoon also mentioned Russia’s responsibility in the war and China’s role in the international community. This comes as NATO’s strategic concept mentioned China as a security challenge to the military alliance.
 
On the same day, the UN’s food agency food and agriculture organization (FAO) and the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) mentioned the looming global food crisis as the war in Ukraine continues. Russia and Ukraine are the world’s top five exporters of wheat, and Moscow’s blockade of Kyiv’s ports has disrupted the wheat exports. As a result, the two agencies, FAO and OECD, forecast the wheat prices to reach 19 per cent above the pre-war levels in 2022 and 2023.
 
References

Samantha Lock, Maya Yang and Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 127 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 30 June 2022
Pavel Polityuk, “Ukraine tells NATO Russia wants to dictate future world order,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Kyiv welcomes NATO's 'clear-eyed stance' on Russia,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Russian missile strike in Ukraine's Mykolaiv blamed for three deaths,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Ukraine wins release of 144 soldiers in biggest prisoner swap of war,” 
Reuters, 30 June 2022
'I didn't fire a shot', says American held by separatists in eastern Ukraine,” 
Reuters, 30 June 2022
Moscow-administered Kherson prepares referendum on joining Russia,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Russian diplomat accuses UK Defense Secretary of slander,” 
TASS, 29 June 2022
Russia as a threat, China as a competitor: NATO adopts new Strategic Concept,” 
TASS, 29 June 2022
Syria makes decision to recognize LPR, DPR — Foreign Ministry,” 
TASS, 29 June 2022
Russia warns West: Don't take your assets in our country for granted,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022 “Russian court postpones ruling on whether to label Mariupol regiment as terrorists,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
With Coke and Pepsi out, Russian company says it's time for Cola Chernogolovka,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Putin: Russia will respond if NATO sets up infrastructure in Finland, Sweden,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
NATO allies to send weapons to Kyiv for as long as necessary - Germany's Scholz,”

Reuters, 29 June 2022
Sabine Siebold, Robin Emmott and Pavel Polityuk, “NATO backs military aid for 'heroic' Ukraine, Russia steps up attacks,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
UK to provide another 1 bln pounds of military support to Ukraine,” 
Reuters, 30 June 2022
Ukrainian troops train in Britain to use advanced rocket systems,” 
Reuters, 30 June 2022
Alexandra Alper, Karen Freifeld and Jonathan Landay, “Putin still wants most of Ukraine, war outlook grim -U.S. intelligence chief,” 
Reuters, 30 June 2022
Aislinn Laing, Andrea Shalal and Robin Emmott, “U.S. to boost military presence in Europe as NATO bolsters its eastern flank,”
 Reuters, 29 June 2022
Alan Charlish and Anna Wlodarczak-semczuk, “Poland's Duda says planned U.S. base boosts security from Russia,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Philip Blenkinsop, “G7: China must press Russia to stop Ukraine war,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022. “IAEA loses transmission from Ukraine’s Russian-held nuclear power plant,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
Indonesian president offers to take message from Ukraine’s leader to Putin,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Hyonhee Shin, “South Korea’s Yoon warns at NATO summit of threat to ‘universal values’,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Millions risk undernourishment as wheat prices surge, FAO and OECD warn,” 
Reuters, 29 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

AUSTRIA
Charges were dropped against the private investigator
On 29 June, charges were dropped against the private detective who taped the former vice-chancellor of Austria Heinz-Christian Strache offering bribes. The 41-year-old brought down the government in 2019 with the secretly recorded video of Strache, former vice-chancellor, and leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), offering a woman masquerading as a Russian oligarch's niece profitable government contracts in exchange for positive coverage in media platforms owned by her uncle. The charges against the private detective were dropped due to a lack of evidence however he was already serving a three and a half-year sentence for a drug-related case. The release of the video, which was taken at a luxurious vacation house in Ibiza, led to Strache resigning from office and the collapse of the coalition government. Even chancellor Sebastian Kurz was involved in a scandal of his own which led to his resignation in 2021. (Elizabeth Schumacher, "Austria: No charges against investigator who brought down government," Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2022)

GERMANY
Germany faced a slight decrease in inflation in the month of June
On 29 June, the Federal statistical office, or Destatis, stated that there was a minor reduction in the inflation rate of goods and services in June when compared to May in Germany. The average price of goods and services in June was 7.6 per cent higher than last year when compared to 7.9 per cent in May. It was earlier predicted to be eight per cent for June. The inflation rates vary for each product and service such as inflation for energy prices decreased from 38.3 per cent in May to 38 per cent in June. Inflation for services was 2.1 per cent in June when compared with 2.9 per cent in May. However, goods like groceries had their inflation rate go up from 11.1 per cent in May to 12.7 per cent in June. Dekabank chief economist Ulrich Kater says that the inflation will go on till January next year and will ease up if no further crisis pops up. The inflation started at the time of the coronavirus pandemic but escalated when Russia attacked Ukraine affecting the energy prices. ("Germany: Inflation sinks slightly to 7.6%," Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2022)

THE UK
The UK government not keeping up with its net-zero policies promises
On 29 June, the UK government was found failing to enact policies that were needed to reach the net-zero target of carbon emissions. The Climate Change Committee(CCC) expressed its concerns that the ministers would go back on the legally binding commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The government has yet to act on the policies that they have spoken of about net-zero CO2 emissions. According to CCC, the best way to tackle the rising cost of living was to implement net-zero policies. The insulation policy became a failure after the government did not help people insulate their homes. Heating would contribute a lot to greenhouse gas emissions and insulating homes would have reduced them. CCC said that the UK government should explore more renewable energy and consider temporary measures of using coal-fired power plants for a short period in response to rising energy prices. (Fiona Harvey, "Government policies will not get UK to net zero, warns damning report," the Guardian, 29 June 2022)

REGIONAL
EU members agree on the 2035 CO2 cars phase-out and multibillion Euro fund
On 29 June, the EU member nations came up with deals that might turn into laws to tackle the climate crisis. The environment ministers of the 27 member nations agreed on backing a 2035 phase-out of new fossil fuel run car sales and having a EUR 59 billion fund to protect the low-income citizens from the cost of CO2 emissions. They agreed after 16 hours of negotiation in which Germany suggested that the 2035 CO2 car sales phase-out does not include hybrid and carbon-neutral fuelled cars and see if both comply with the EU goal by 2026. Countries like Italy, Slovakia, and Bulgaria wanted to delay the phase-out to 2040. The EU's goal is to reduce net carbon emissions by 55 per cent from 1990 levels and introduce a new carbon market that emits zero CO2 by 2035. They agreed to make the rules easier for the EU to intervene in response to the carbon price spikes. The policy to help low-income citizens with EUR 59 billion will start effectively from 2027 and goes on till 2032. ("EU countries reach climate crisis deal after late-night talks," the Guardian, 29 June 2022)

NATO prepares for a cyber defense project
On 29 June, the members of NATO agreed to establish a program called “virtual rapid response cyber capability,” for defense against cyber attacks from Russia. The initiative was taken following multiple cyberattacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and increasing concern that Moscow may target the US and other NATO countries. The US has volunteered to offer “robust national capabilities,” to this program. Furthermore, during the summit NATO reiterated that the North Atlantic Treaty's Article five might also be triggered by a cyberattack, making it an attack against the alliance as a whole. (Maggie Miller, “NATO establishes program to coordinate rapid response to cyberattacks,” POLITICO, 29 June 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
UNEP and EIP launch a new project to help conserve the Mediterranean sea
On 28 June, during the Ocean conference in Lisbon, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) inaugurated the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Mediterranean Pollution Hot Spots Technical Assistance programme to reduce pollution in the Mediterranean marine and coastal environment. The programme will prepare the priority investment projects to reduce pollution in the marine and coastal environments of Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia. The Mediterranean Pollution Hot Spots Investment Programme of USD five million is a subsidiary project of GEF-funded MedProgramme established by the Barcelona Convention. (“UN Environment Programme and European Investment Bank join forces to reduce pollution,” UNEP, 28 June 2022)

GENDER
Anti-abortion activism may rise in Europe, following Roe vs Wade verdict in the US
On 28 June, POLITICO examined the influence of the US supreme court's decision to overturn abortion rights in Europe. The response to this week's Roe vs Wade decision may be a sign of a new political rift in Europe if anti-abortion movements increase in the region. The right-wing in Europe may become more divided on abortion than the left. A report by the European Parliamentary Forum for Sexual and Reproductive Rights (EPF) in 2021 stated that in total USD 81.3 million was funded for activism against abortion between 2009 and 2018 in the US. The report states that powerful mega-donors establish charitable foundations that support anti-abortion activist groups in the US. These in turn carry out operations abroad either directly or via affiliated firms. The European Center for Law and Justice and the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) International are some of the branches of conservative organizations in the US. (“The plan to overturn abortion rights in Europe,” POLITICO, 28 June 2022)


29 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #240

Lithuania’s rail transit to Kaliningrad, a new flashpoint of contention | War in Ukraine: Day 125

NATO Madrid summit agree to add more troops in eastern Europe; Scotland's new referendum date; ONS census on England and Wales indicate aging population

Photo : Graphic news


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
 

Lithuania’s rail transit to Kaliningrad, a new flashpoint of contention

What is the ban about? 
On 17 June, Lithuania announced a ban on Russian goods transiting through its territory to Kaliningrad, following the guidelines of the EU’s sanctions. Kaliningrad is a strategic enclave of Russia geographically located between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic coast. The banned goods included construction materials, advanced technology, metals, and coals which were crucial for Kaliningrad and made up 50 per cent of its imports. Lithuania’s announcement has increased tensions between Russia and NATO as both Poland and Lithuania are member states. However, Lithuania has also argued that Russia knew about the sanctions and only used the issue to wage a possible information war.
 
Moscow’s retaliation 
On 18 June, in response to Lithuania’s announcement, Kaliningrad’s governor Anton Alikhanov said: “We consider this to be a most serious violation … of the right to free transit into and out of Kaliningrad region.” The governor said the enclave had prepared to increase the number of ships’ carrying goods to compensate for the shortages from Saint Petersburg. On 21 June, Russia’s security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated that Russia would respond to Lithuania’s actions with hostile measures. He added that the consequences would also have “a serious negative impact on the Lithuanian population.” 
 
Five concerns of contention on the Kaliningrad blockade
First, the Suwałki land corridor. The Suwałki gap is considered the Achilles’ heel of NATO as it is geographically vulnerable to a joint attack by Russia and Belarus. This would also cut Lithuania’s border with Poland and fracture NATO’s land Baltic access. 
 
Second, escalating Russian aggression. On 27 June, Russian hackers claimed responsibility for the cyber attacks targeting private institutions in Lithuania. In addition, Russia in February announced that it had positioned nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. These missiles would be able to target NATO countries in the Baltic seas and are now an immediate threat to Lithuania if issues escalate. 
 
Third, NATO’s article five. Russia’s declaration of retaliation has drawn the US to be involved in the Russia, Lithuania, and Kaliningrad issue. US state department spokesperson Ned Price stated that the US fully supported Ukraine under NATO’s article five. Any escalation would result in a collective NATO response which would push the conflict away from Ukraine to Lithuania. 
 
Fourth, reviving the debate on Lithuania’s independence. Lithuania has been supporting Ukraine since Russia invaded Kyiv. In retaliation, Russia and the Duma deputies suggested revoking Lithuania’s independence that the Soviet Union agreed upon in 1991. This would further disrupt the relations between Vilnius and Moscow. 
 
Fifth, isolating the militarised region. Isolating the enclave would likely lead to stagnation as the region has an underdeveloped economy and is dependent on mainland Russia for imports. Russia has also argued that Lithuania’s blockade would exacerbate global food shortages and increase inflation. 
 
References
Aleksandra Klitina, “Russia, Belarus threatening Lithuania with war over Kaliningrad ban,” Kyiv Post, 27 June 2022
Beatrice Zemelyte, “Kaliningrad standoff could reveal if Russia wants to ‘escalate,” Al Jazeera, 24 June 2022.
Juri Rescheto, “Transit row between Russia and Lithuania heats up,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022
Paul Kirby, “Kaliningrad row: Lithuania accuses Russia of lying about rail ‘blockade,’” BBC, 23 June 2022
Juri Rescheto, “Who’s next? Lithuanians prepare for potential Russian aggression,” Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2022 
Russia deploys nuclear-capable missile system in Kaliningrad: reports,” Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2022 


War in Ukraine: Day 125
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
 

War on the Ground
On 28 June, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephonic conversation with the NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, ahead of the NATO summit. They spoke about Ukraine’s position and the necessity for a powerful missile defence system for Ukraine. He also addressed the UN security council, where he accused president Vladimir Putin of being a “terrorist” and requested for Russia’s expulsion from the council. To reiterate his argument, he also called the UN to visit the site of the recent missile strike in Kremenchuk.
 
On 27 June, Kharkiv’s governor, Oleh Synehubov, reported that Russia’s forces had shelled the city. Apartment buildings and a primary school were hit. As a result, five people were killed and‌ 22 were injured, among which 5 were children. On the Telegram messaging app, Synehubov emphasized the fact that all the people affected by the shelling were civilians.
 
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported the arrest of a former KGB agent who had revealed the location of the Yavoriv military facility in Ukraine to an unspecified Russian agency. SBU maintains that this led Russia’s forces to strike the facility in March, killing over 50 service personnel and injuring around 150.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 28 June, in response to Vilnius's decision to stop the transit of some commodities subject to the EU sanctions to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, the cyber-attack group from Russia, Killnet informed Reuters that it was conducting a significant cyberattack on Lithuania. The prime minister of Lithuania, Ingrida Simonyte, stated that her government's institutions are working around the clock to solve the problems as they are uncovered. 
 
On the same day, Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos disclosed the location coordinates of Western defense headquarters and NATO’s summit in Spain, claiming that Western satellite operators were working for Russia's adversary, Ukraine. Russian satellite images of the NATO headquarters in Brussels, the Pentagon, the White House, the British government buildings in central London, the German Chancellery and Reichstag parliament building in Berlin, the summit venue in Madrid, the French president's residence and other government buildings in Paris, the White House, and the Pentagon were also posted. 


The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 28 June, the US treasury department reported the imposition of sanctions on 70 entities and 29 people who are allegedly important to Russia’s industrial base. This includes Russia's state aerospace and defense conglomerate, Rostec; the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), which makes MiG and Sukhoi fighter jets; Tupolev which makes strategic bomber and transport aircraft and the largest truck manufacturer, Kamaz. It also confirmed US’s move to ban Russia’s gold, as was discussed at the G7 summit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: "Targeting Russia's defense industry will degrade (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's capabilities and further impede his war against Ukraine, which has already been plagued by poor morale, broken supply chains, and logistical failures."
 
70 Russian diplomatic staff were expelled from Bulgaria on espionage charges. The move was announced by the foreign ministry and the outgoing prime minister Kiril Petkov. This is by far the largest expulsion by Sofia, which decreases the presence of Russian diplomats to half of what it was. While describing the expulsions, Petkov said: "This is not an act of aggression towards the Russian people…When foreign governments are trying to meddle in our internal affairs, we have institutions that will respond."
 
The defence ministers of both the Netherlands and Germany said that they will send more howitzers to Ukraine. Speaking at the sidelines of the NATO summit, they mentioned that they were prepared to ‘do their share’ in supporting Ukraine. Germany’s defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, also spoke about the announcement of having NATO troops combat-ready. She said that Germany is likely to provide one division of 15,000 troops, along with 65 planes and 20 ships.
 
On 28 June, The US climate envoy, John Kerry said that the Ukraine war was showing the world why it should not be held hostage by oil-rich states for their energy needs. He spoke about how the current crisis is a warning to everyone to not be “prisoners of petrostate dictators who are willing to weaponize energy.”


The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 27 June, the Group of Seven (G7)  agreed to commit USD five billion to increase global food security as a response to concerns in developing countries about the possibility of starvation brought on by the conflict in Ukraine. The US is said to provide more than half of that amount, which would support regional organizations and efforts to combat hunger in 47 nations. The G7 has also agreed to evaluate the possibility of prohibiting the transit of Russian oil that has been sold above for a certain amount.
 
Fumio Kishida, the prime minister of Japan, announced that he will provide an additional USD 100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine at the G7 summit. In addition, as harvest time approaches Japan would also support Ukraine's efforts to increase its grain storage capacity.
 
Furthermore, G7 members urged China to use its influence with Russia to stop its invasion of Ukraine and cease "expansive maritime claims" in the South China Sea. They cited a decision by the International Court of Justice ordering Moscow to halt its military action and relevant UN resolutions calling on China to pressure Russia to withdraw forces from Ukraine quickly and unconditionally.
 
On 29 June, the prime minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese stated that he is considering reopening the Australian Embassy in Kyiv. As it seeks to join several of its allies that have resumed operations after evacuating its ambassadors over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 
 
References
Ukraine tells NATO it needs powerful missile defence system,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Vitalii Hnidyi, “Russian shelling kills five civilians in Ukraine's Kharkiv - governor,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Ukraine arrests 'Russian agent' who guided strike that killed 50 troops –SBU,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Daphne Psaledakis and Michelle Nichols, “New U.S. sanctions target Russian gold imports, defense industry,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Tsvetelia Tsolova, “Bulgaria expels 70 Russian diplomatic staff over espionage concerns,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Germany and Netherlands to supply six more howitzers to Kyiv,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Sergio Goncalves and Catarina Demony, “Nations can no longer be 'prisoners of petrostate dictators' -U.S. envoy Kerry,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
Russian hacker group says cyber attacks continue on Lithuania,,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Russia publishes Pentagon coordinates, says Western satellites 'work for our enemy',” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Thomas Escritt and Sarah Marsh, “G7 commits $5 bln to tackling global food insecurity - US official | Reuters,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
Japan PM Kishida: to extend additional $100 mln in humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
G7 agrees to explore cap on Russian oil price,” Reuters, 28 June 2022
G7: China must press Russia to stop Ukraine war,” Reuters, 28 June 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

THE UK
Scotland proposed dates for the new referendum on its independence
On 28 June, the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, decided to hold the next referendum on independence on October 19, 2023. She wrote to the UK prime minister Boris Johnson to obtain formal approval for the vote to take place. However, even if it is not approved by the UK government, Sturgeon declared she would move through with her proposal. In response, the UK government stated that it would look into Sturgeon's proposal but emphasized that it remained of the opinion that "now is not the time" for another vote. In addition, it has been stated that it is obvious that Westminster controls the constituent. (“Scottish independence: 19 October 2023 proposed as date for referendum,” BBC, 28 June 2022)

Demographic census data for 2021 was released by ONS
On 28 June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the initial report on the population census of 2021. Between 2011 and 2021, population growth was observed in all nine of England's regions as well as in Wales. The East of England experienced the highest rate of population growth, up 8.3 per cent from 2011. The South West increased by 7.8 per cent, adding 412,000 more people and London grew by 7.7 per cent. In England and Wales, 29,177,200 men and 30,420,100 women were recorded, and Men made up 29  per cent of the total population. However, a half-million fewer persons than expected were counted in the census in the figure for England and Wales increased by 7.8 per cent between 2001 and 2011. The ONS said that further information from the 2021 census for England and Wales will be released in stages over the next two years. (Callum May and Data Journalism Team, “Census: Population of England and Wales grew 6% in a decade,” BBC, 28 June 2022)

ITALY
Italy faces impending doom due to crisis 
On 27 June, Mario Draghi's smooth administration of Italy is about to conclude due to various troubles looming over Italy. The achievements of the prime minister in making sure of negative interest rates, the growth of Italy after the pandemic, and a chance to spend almost EUR200 billion in EU recovery funds are about to come to an end due to problems facing Italy. War, inflation, and imminent elections are threatening the economy of Italy. The rising energy prices are the main reason for inflation in the country. The predicted GDP growth of 4.1 per cent is cut short to 2.4 per cent due to the war and the implications it brought to Italy. Italy still depends on Russia for its gas needs and would suffer tremendously if Moscow decides to cut off the supply completely. Italy is trying to look for alternatives such as pursuing gas deals with countries like Qatar, Angola, and Algeria and maximizing the usage of coal plants in case Russia decides to cut off the gas supply. There is an impending fear of possible inflation in Italy due to the increase in interest rates and hike in energy prices. The elections ahead also might put Italy at risk. If a proper and smart government is not elected, then Italy would go into recession. (Paola Tamma, "Italy’s economy enters choppy waters," POLITICO, 27 June 2022)

SPAIN
Prime minister Pedro Sanchez faces heat on the death of migrants during the Melila incident 
On 27 June, Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez is being criticized from within his coalition government over the deaths of 23 to 37 migrants who were attempting to cross from Morocco to the Melilla enclave of Spain. He was accused of failing to condemn the brutality and violence of the Moroccan police force toward the migrants. The leftist party of Unidas Podemos(UP) and the opposition Popular Party(PP) have criticized the prime minister's lack of action. Sanchez had blamed the mafia and their involvement in human trafficking that led to the incident. The prime minister and his interior minister are being petitioned to explain by the PP. (Camille Gijs, "Melilla migrant deaths fuel new Spanish coalition fissure," POLITICO, 27 June 2022)

FASHION
Fashion brands to stop using the Higg MSI tool for environmental impacts
On June 28, fashion brands such as H&M and Norrøna announced that they would stop the usage of a sustainability measuring tool after critics called it greenwashing. 655 garments were rated by the Higg Material Sustainability Index(MSI) to check their environmental impacts on the website of H&M. This tool was launched by a global non-profit alliance of fashion brands, the Sustainable Apparel Coalition(SAC). SAC consists of 250 members of famous brands across the world. The Norwegian Consumer Authority(NCA) warned the H&M group about the negative effects of Higg MSI. The Higg MSI only assesses a selective part of the lifecycle of a product, which does not represent the sustainability of the product. According to critics, Higg MSI misleads and misinforms customers with faulty data. SAC's CEO Amina Razvi addressed the issue and told the media that they would rectify and improve the tool for accuracy in the information and would do an independent, third-party review of the data and the methodology. (Fleur Britten, "Germany signals support for 2035 fossil fuel car phaseout, with conditions," the Guardian, 28 June 2022)

REGIONAL
NATO summit to discuss further deployment of troops in Europe
On 28 June, the meeting of NATO member countries in Madrid is expected to focus mostly on China's expanding global ambitions and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Secretary-General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg highlighted the critical decisions that will be made at the Summit, including a major change in NATO's deterrence and defense, long-term support for Ukraine, and a strengthening of collaboration with like-minded allies around the globe. Members are anticipated to significantly raise the number of troops stationed in eastern Europe and the Baltic States, in addition to stockpiling weapons and equipment there. The national security adviser for the US, Jake Sullivan, stated that further military deployments of "land, sea, and air" will be announced for the long term. (“NATO summit in Spain focuses on Russia and China,” Deutsche Welle, 28 June 2022)

Germany is willing to back the 2035 CO2 cars phase-out with a condition 
On 28 June, Germany agreed to support the 2035 fossil fuel cars phase-out under a few changes to the EU package. Germany wants to add CO2-neutral fuel cars to be added to the proposed bill. If the bill is adopted by the EU, it would ban the sales of carbon-emitting fuel cars from 2035 onwards. But Germany wants to add a clause so that carbon-neutral cars can be exempted. Countries such as Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania have requested to delay the implementation of the bill. These nations called for a 90 per cent phase-out of CO2 cars by 2035 and 100 per cent by 2040. Poland similarly supports the lighter ban. This bill is part of a set of laws developed to help the EU to tackle its carbon emissions reduction goal. ("Germany signals support for 2035 fossil fuel car phaseout, with conditions,"  Deutsche Welle, 28 June 2022)


28 June 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #239

Russia’s renewed attack on Kyiv | European Parliaments report on EU-Africa relations: Four takeaways

Bulgarian prime minister resigns after losing no-confidence vote; Bill overriding Brexit deal gets initial approval; Poland’s seaport critical for Europe’s energy future

Photo : Institute for the Study of War/BBC


IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan 

Russia’s renewed attack on Kyiv: A change in strategy?
On 26 June, Russia renewed its offensive in Kyiv when four missiles hit the capital. One of the missiles hit residential buildings, killing one person and injuring five. The last attack on Kyiv was on 05 June, when Russia destroyed a factory on the outskirts of the city. 

On the same day, the G7 leaders met in Germany for the summit. The main agenda was the war in Ukraine and the resultant necessity to present a united bloc.

Also on the same day, Sievierodonetsk fell to Russia’s forces. It had been under heavy siege for weeks, with significant infrastructural and humanitarian damages. Russia now has control over most of the Donbas region except Lysychansk. The objective of this ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine was to liberate the Donbas. Thus, as expected, Russia’s forces were seen moving towards Lysychansk, to secure the entire region.

The renewed attack on Kyiv: Three explanations
First, warning attacks by Russia. Putin may view the G7 meeting as an anti-Russian grouping. The attacks on Kyiv can therefore be his attempt to show the G7 leaders that he has the power and upper hand in Ukraine. This attack could also be a delayed response to the EU granting candidacy to Ukraine by accepting their membership bid. Moreover, NATO is also supposed to begin its summit in Madrid on 28 June. Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko said that this was a “symbolic attack” to pre-empt the NATO leaders from further uniting against Russia. He also mentioned that the recent attacks were reminiscent of the Russian attacks on Kyiv during the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres's visit to Ukraine.
 
Second, a distraction tactic. The attack on Kyiv can be seen as an effort to shift the global attention from Sievierodonetsk and the Donbas. This makes it easier for Russia to carry out its ‘operation’ in eastern Ukraine. Russia had said that it will target depots and stores of weapons and ammunition supplied by the West. However, other than striking these depots in the north and west of Ukraine, Russia does not have any immediate military objective in targeting these places.
 
Third, Putin’s changing strategies. With most of Donbas under its control, Russia will now look into its long-term plan in Ukraine. Even though Russian troops were concentrating only on eastern Ukraine, there have been sporadic attacks on Kyiv, Lviv, and Sumy. This indicates Putin’s going back to the initial strategy to occupy Ukraine's key areas which were under Ukraine's control. Moreover, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov spoke about how the West sending heavy artillery to Ukraine is only intensifying the conflict. While the US objective may be to weaken Russia, in reality, it is only increasing the threat of escalation. With the West’s support still unwavering, this attack on Kyiv and other places in the north and west of Ukraine might be a preview of what is coming next in terms of Russia’s strategy.

References
Continued arms supplies from US to Ukraine increase threat of further escalation — envoy,” TASS, 28 June 2022
Joe Inwood, “Ukraine war: What Severodonetsk's fall means for the conflict,” BBC News, 27 June 2022
Russian missiles hit residential buildings in Ukraine’s Kyiv,” Aljazeera, 26 June 2022
Ukraine: Russian warplanes pound Kyiv after weeks of calm,” Aljazeera, 26 June 2022


Report on the future of EU-Africa trade relations: Four takeaways

On 23 June, the European Parliament advocated a report on the future of African trade relations with the EU published by the Committee on International Trade. The report, which will now be considered by the European Commission (EC), demands that African nations be treated more fairly in their present bilateral trade agreements. Based on pledges of a more fair, respectful, and human-centered trading partnership between the two regions made during the EU-African Union summit in February, the report presents a number of recommendations and motives for future investment to be based in Africa. The report has the recommendations of the Committee on International Trade and additional suggestions by the Committee on Development.

Four takeaways
First, recognition of trade, investment, and environmental sustainability. The EU is yet to recognize the sustainable, and inclusive economic developments of Africa and upon recognition will not only stop with AU but will benefit the entire continent. Which in turn increases the investment policies and helps it to achieve the set goals under the UN's Agenda 2030.

Second, call for the transfer of technology and knowledge. Since colonial times wealth has continuously flowed from the African periphery to the industrialized regions in Europe. Africa has only been supplying raw materials and primary goods, the lack of wealth creation through industries has resulted in unemployment and poverty in the region. Therefore, the report stresses how the EU has to be fair and responsible to share its technical expertise with Africa to promote manufacturing in the continent. The Committee on Development suggested a good transition towards a partnership on an equal footing, founded on reciprocity and mutual benefit, which goes beyond a “donor-recipient relationship” and allows both parties to pursue their own interests while also identifying potential areas of cooperation. It further insists that the EU must attempt to offer technical assistance to prevent EU trade standards from being perceived as non-tariff trade obstacles.

Third, call for joint decision-making. If the critical decisions are taken together by the two unions, it will provide each party a sense of empowerment over the process of deciding what the goals of the commercial and investment policies should be. To restructure the economy to be self-reliant calls for increased involvement of civil society, including business, industrialists, and, in particular, the small and medium enterprises.

Fourth, The need for evaluation of the impact of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA)s. The Committee on Development called on the EU to increase African nations' capacity to take advantage of trade opportunities in the fields of food security, health care, and poverty alleviation through EPAs. It further calls for the inclusion of human rights, labor, and environmental mechanisms in trade and sustainable development chapters to be negotiated in the present and future EPAs. In addition, it affirms the need to assess the impact of how EPAs and trade agreements affect African nations, intra-African markets, and local economies, as well as the requirement that they are compatible with the SDGs.

References
Ella Joyner, “European Parliament advocates equalizing EU trade relations with Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022
Helmut Scholz, “Report on the future of EU- Africa trade relations,” European Parliament, 03 June 202


War in Ukraine: Day 124
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the Ground
On 27 June, Luhansk oblast's governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said that Russia had targeted civilians in the region who were collecting water from a tank. The missile attack killed eight civilians and wounded at least 21 in the Lysychansk region. Gaidai stated that Russia had "aimed at the crowd." 
 
On the same day, Russia attacked a shopping center in Kremenchuk. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that more than 1,000 civilians were at the shopping center at the time of the attack. Zelenskyy added: "It is impossible to even imagine the number of victims… It's useless to hope for decency and humanity from Russia," Officials have updated the death toll to 11 and the wounded to 50. Central Poltava region's governor Dmytro Lunin called the missile strikes "an act of terrorism against civilians." 
 
Also, on 27 June, Zelenskyy urged the G7 not to let the conflict drag on to winter. He spoke to the leaders via a video link and asked for more sanctions against Russia. Addressing the G7 countries, Zelenskyy said: "if Ukraine wins, you all win." Zelenskyy also mentioned the indiscriminate missile strikes by Russia. 
 
On 27 June, Mariupol steelworks owner Rinat Akhmetov said he had filed a lawsuit against Russia. Akhmetov sued Russia at the European court of human rights under "grievous violations of his property rights." He also seeks a court order to prevent Russia from blockading, looting, diverting, and destructing grain and steel in his steel plant. 
 
On the same day, Lysychansk's governor Serhai Haidai called for civilians to evacuate the region as the situation was deteriorating. He added: "Save yourself and your loved ones. Take care of the children. Be sure that you will be taken care of in the evacuation cities on the territory of Ukraine." Russia's shelling in Kharkiv also killed four people and wounded 19; however, Russia said it denied targeting civilians. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 27 June, Russia said it would invest USD 14.5 billion to boost its domestic aircraft production. This would help Russia to boost its share of domestically manufactured aircraft amid sanctions from the West. The aviation industry has been in a crisis since the West imposed sanctions, as its profitable routes to Europe and the US were now halted. 
 
On the same day, TASS reported how Russia had failed to pay its USD 100 million in Russian Eurobond coupons that had expired. However, the finance ministry denied any default. It said: "In accordance with issuing documentation for mentioned issues, the event of default is the failure to pay on the part of the debtor, but the payment was made in advance - on 20 May, 2022." 
 
The default was caused by a third party involved. Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added: "These allegations of a default are absolutely unjustified, because back in May, the obligatory payment in the currency was fulfilled, and the fact that Euroclear withheld this money, or did not deliver it to the recipients is no longer our problem." 
 
Also, on 27 June, president Vladimir Putin said he had accepted Indonesia's invitation to participate in the G20 meetings. This comes as Indonesia's president Joko Widodo had urged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict. 
 
On 27 June, Russia said it was planning to transfer Iskander-M missile systems to Belarus, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. In a meeting with President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin offered to retrofit the Sukhoi Su-25s in service with the Belarusian army.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 27 June, France's president Emmanuel Macron said it denounced Russia's missile strikes on the shopping center in Kremenchuk. Macron called it an "abomination." France's foreign ministry also said that Russia would have to answer for its missile strikes that killed civilians in the shopping center.
 
On the same day, Canada's president Justin Trudeau announced more sanctions and measures against Russia. Canada has imposed a ban on exporting technologies to Russia that could help Moscow's defense manufacturing capability. Trudeau also said Canada plans to impose sanctions against Russian state-sponsored disinformation and propaganda agents and entities. 
 
On 27 June, Moldova's president expressed gratitude to the EU for accepting the country as a membership candidate. President Maia Sandu also visited Kyiv and Bucha. She added: "Ukraine and Moldova need help. We want this war to stop, this Russian aggression against Ukraine to be stopped as soon as possible. We want to stay part of the free world."

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 27 June, the G7 said it stands with Ukraine; they also announced increasing sanctions targeting Russia's finances and oil. The announcement came after Zelenskyy addressed the G7 in a video conference and urged the countries to give Ukraine more weapons and air defense systems. The G7 released a joint statement: "We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes." 
 
On the same day, the growing relations between Russia and China amid the war in Ukraine has made NATO introduce Beijing as a concern in its strategies. Russia has been deepening its ties with China to circumvent sanctions and tackle the West's growing push to isolate Moscow. 
 
Also, on 27 June, regarding Ukraine, the UN stated that it was concerned about the air strikes and shelling. The UN also expressed the challenges in giving humanitarian aid to the civilians trapped in the Donbas region. 
 
References
At least 8 civilians killed in Lysychansk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 
Officials have updated the death toll for the Russian missile strike on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk to 11,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 
Missile strike hits busy shopping centre in Kremenchuk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 “Zelenskiy tells G7 not to let Ukraine conflict 'drag on over winter,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 
Owner of Mariupol steelworks files lawsuit against Russia,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 Patrick Wintour, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with G7 leaders,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 
Regional governor calls for civilians to evacuate Lysychansk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 
Russian shelling in Kharkiv kills four, says governor,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
Kremlin calls out default claims as unlawful, payment in foreign currency made back in May,” TASS, 27 June 2022 
Press review: Russia to help beef up Belarus’ nukes and has NATO dashed Kiev’s hopes,” TASS, 27 June 2022 
Moscow confirms Putin’s participation in G20 summit, details are being finalized — Kremlin,” TASS, 27 June 2022
"Moscow honors commitments, despite West’s ploys to drive Russia into ‘default’," TASS, 27 June 2022 
Russia to spend $14.5 billion to boost local aircraft production amid sanctions,” Reuters, 27 June 2022
Moldova’s president said during a visit to Ukraine that her country was “fragile and vulnerable” and needed help to remain “part of the free world,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron has denounced Russia’s deadly strike on a shopping centre in Kremenchuk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 
France: Russia must answer for deadly missile strike,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
Canada to impose additional sanctions, ban tech export to Russia -statement,” Reuters, 27 June 2022
Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General,” UN, 27 June 2022 
Nato diplomats are wrestling over how to tackle China’s deepening ties with Russia,” Al Jazeera, 27 June 2022
Angelo Amante and John Irish, “G7 to stand with Ukraine 'for as long as it takes,” Reuters, 27 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

BULGARIA
Prime minister Kiril Petkov formally resigns after losing a no-confidence vote
On 27 June, Bulgaria's prime minister Kiril Petkov formally resigned after his coalition government lost the vote of no confidence. The four-party coalition government collapsed after one split from the group due to differences in ideologies. Petkov was charged with firming a new cabinet by the president of Bulgaria. He was accused of mismanaging the state's budget. He has a period of one week to form a new majority government or else a new election will be conducted in Bulgaria, which would be the fourth in eighteen months. ("Bulgarian Prime Minister Petkov resigns after losing confidence vote," euronews, 27 June 2022)

POLAND
Poland is set to become a regional gas hub with its LNG terminal 
On 24 June, Poland's biggest liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal at Swinoujscie will become crucial in supplying energy to Central and East Europe. The Lech Kaczynski terminal will be major replacement to the Russian gas imports to Poland which were halted by Gazprom in April. LNG is procured from all over the world, primarily from Qatar, the US, and Norway. The terminal has brought forth a lot of scope for tourism in the town and the local businesses benefit from people visiting the terminal. Poland is working on becoming a regional gas hub by delivering surplus gas to neighbouring countries through interconnectors. Poland's active role in the gas terminal will help the EU to phase out Russian oil and gas imports. Poland may become a gas hub for Central, East Europe, and even West Europe in the time of energy crisis. (Jo Harper, "The small seaport crucial for Europe's energy future," BBC News, 24 June 2022)

SCOTLAND 
Nicola Sturgeon to push forward with a second independence referendum for Scotland 
On 28 June, Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon is planning to hold a second independence referendum. The UK government opposed the referendum stating that the present time is not good to discuss independence while other issues that are much more important are at hand. Sturgeon alleges that the process would be done democratically and is sure of her victory. She wants to proceed with the referendum even without the UK government agreeing to the section 30 order. Many criticize her actions as a way to distract from the failures of her party, the SNP. Meanwhile, issues like the cost of living crisis, and energy price crisis are ignored and that is looming over the heads of the people of Scotland. ("Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for second independence referendum," BBC News, 28 June 2022)

THE UK
MPs support the bill to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol 
On 27 June, a bill to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol passed the initial approval from the house of commons. This controversial bill will create a new layer of tension between the UK and the EU. Upon which the EU has taken legal action against the UK for breaching the post-Brexit deal. Former prime minister Theresa May said that this bill will besmirch the reputation of the country. Almost all of the ruling conservatives and MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party(DUP) voted for the bill leading to a majority of 74 votes. British foreign secretary Liz Truss said that the UK had no option but to choose this way because the EU was not flexible with the deal. The passing of the bill will lead to a resumption of power-sharing in Belfast which was paused since May's assembly elections due to the NI protocol issue. The move was argued to be legal as it was committed to preserving Northern Ireland's 1998 Belfast/Good Friday peace agreement. This would look bad for the UK as it is seen as breaking an obligation. ("Move to override Brexit deal gets initial backing from MPs," BBC News, 28 June 2022) 

GEOLOGY
Oldest wildfire discovered in South Wales
On 27 June, evidence of the oldest wildfire was discovered in South Wales where the charred remnants were found trapped under ancient and archaic mudstones. The wildfire was traced back to 430 million years ago during the Silurian period of the Earth. The source of the charcoal is said to be giant fungi that were abundant in the Silurian period. These giant fungi were called Prototaxites and each was up to eight meters in height and about a meter in diameter. They were vertical phallic structures that weighed up to 10 metric tonnes. The instinctive marks left by the wildfire indicate that it was huge and widespread. The fossils also show us that the concentration of oxygen was less than what it is today. (Jonathan Amos, "Earliest evidence of wildfire found in Wales," BBC News, 27 June 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL 
General Secretary Anotonio Guterres presents opening speech at ocean conference in Lisbon
On 27 June, the UN General Secretary António Guterres spoke at the opening of the organization's ocean conference that took place in Lisbon. He spoke about how the ocean needs to be saved. He raised concerns over the rising sea level, ocean heating, acidification, and plastic pollution in the largest water bodies. He further went on to say that the oceans are being exploited and that the member nations should concern themselves with the protection of the high seas. The harm done to oceans may have adverse effects on small nations and coastal cities and may even cause flooding. Increased fishing and marine pollution have led to a reduction in the population of marine lifeforms. He also talked about dumping wastewater and plastic in the ocean and how it degrades the marine ecology. He called for global awareness of marine pollution and to raise global health. The draft declaration focuses on ways to achieve SDG 14 and improve the health of the ocean. The final draft of the political declaration is expected to be adopted by the end of the conference. (Karen McVeigh, "UN head declares ‘ocean emergency’ as global leaders gather in Lisbon," the Guardian, 26 June 2022)


27 June 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #238

One Planet Summit | G7 countries to ban gold imports from Russia | War in Ukraine: Day 122 & 123

Two killed in a shooting spree in Oslo; Mass migration of Africans from Morocco to Spain’s Melilla ensues chaos

Photo : oneplanetsummit/twitter


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

One Planet Summit 2022: Spotlights Blue Carbon Coalition and New Plastic Economy Global Commitment
On 26 June, the UN along with Portugal and Kenya organized the “One Planet Summit,” for the second time after the one ocean summit held in February. The summit was held with an exclusive agenda toward the ocean looking from Brest to Lisbon which is the largest maritime space shared by Portugal and France in the EU. In the first day, representatives from Colombia, Australia, UNEP, Kenya, and the US attended the summit. The discussion will mainly review Blue Carbon Coalition and New Plastic Economy Global Commitment which were the Brest Commitments in the One Ocean Summit. According to Minister of State for Marine Affairs, Portugal, José Maria Costa: “Building new international partnerships is a political priority for Portugal. We are willing to invest in increased relationships with France and combine necessary experience to develop a sustainable blue economy, to develop marine science and technology.”

Focus of the Summit
First, focus on blue carbon. The summit brought out the following key pointers on the need to conserve the marine ecosystem with regard to blue carbon. While decades of action is being taken towards bringing the carbon emission down to the earth's surface, the damage done to the ocean surface also contributes to the release of carbon into the atmosphere. The marine ecosystem includes the mangrove forests, salt marshes, and seagrass, even if they are in one percent proportion in the ocean, they have the capacity to store 50 per cent of the carbon accumulated for millenniums. Therefore, when such ecosystems are disturbed by human activities, they lose their tendency leading to the release of “sequestered” carbons that have remained in for centuries. Such marine systems can be turned around for the benefit of humanity by cultivating them and protecting them which can promote carbon-free oceans, lessen the climate change effects, and avoid the loss of wetlands, and vegetation. The representative from Conservation International, a non-governmental organization highlighted how the marine systems are 35 times better at acting as carbon syncs when compared to tropical forests. Its significance to humanity not just ends with combating carbon but also in protecting against violent storms, promoting marine life, and wave action.

Second, approach towards plastic pollution. The speakers at the summit spoke on how the transformation of plastics must shift from being linear to circular. Emphasis was also laid on banning recyclable plastics and bringing innovation to recycling. It also brought out the effect on marine life such as dolphins, turtles, and saltwater crocodiles due to the dumping of plastics in the oceans and seas. The most important recommendations made toward New Plastic Economy Global Commitment were on installing more recycling units and continuous negotiations with global countries to bring all under a legally binding agreement.

Third, the actors of the summit. The discussion panel present at the summit included all levels. Starting from individual field experts, environment, forestry, and marine affairs ministers and heads from France, Portugal, Colombia, Indonesia, Australia, and Kenya at the state level and UNEP New Plastics Economy Global Commitment, heads at the international level. Apart from this, heads of several investment banks for bringing the financial and funding aspect to such blue carbon and plastic re-cycling initiatives took part in the discussion. The summit also included non-governmental organizations such as Conservation International which work with various governments on ocean protection and marine biodiversity.

Fourth, global commitments and progress in Blue Carbon. With regards to the blue carbon coalition, Executive Director, AFD (French Development Agency), Gilles Kleitz vowed for adopting a higher ambition to protect the “carbon-rich marine ecosystem” and ensure commitment from banks to source in 200 billion under “carbon finance and ecosystem restoration.” Colombia’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development presented the progress of Colombia’s first blue carbon project on the Caribbean coast certified by Verra, a blue carbon group that has targeted sequestering one million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 30 years' time. He said that the project has benefitted more than 400 families living in the area after six years and the Colombian government plans to start similar projects along Indo-Pacific Coast soon. As far as Indonesia, it has implemented a “Blue economy development policy” which aims to protect marine areas, increase effectiveness, and “empowering of local communities.” Apart from this Australia committed to initiating five blue carbon projects at the domestic level to promote carbon sequestration and biodiversity. It also plans to double the indigenous population as it values their traditional care towards the conservation of land and sea. On the same line the NGO, Conservation International head proposed to encourage and promote the living of the Afro-defendant population who are found to be contributing less to climate change effect but support the most in mitigation.

Fifth, global commitments and progress in plastics. New Plastics Economy Global Commitment, UNEP Head spoke on how the UN seeks to bind all countries into the commitment by aligning the vision and including private and government units. The head reported that the UN has achieved 500 signatories now more have stepped forward after the one ocean summit. Kenya which started the plastic ban in 2007, has now progressed in pushing 19 waste management companies to be held responsible for producing and import of plastics. As far as Australia is concerned the plastics in the ocean have affected the marine species vastly and the government proposed to raise USD 800 million to invest in recycling infrastructure and encourage its university to innovate new ways to suck carbon dioxide and make plastics 100 per cent reusable. Apart from the existing countries, Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Federal government of Belgium, the Kingdom of Thailand, the government of Mexico, along with several other Brazilian and Mexican states joined the Global commitment to plastics.

Reference
One Planet at UN Ocean Conference live event video ,” One Planet Summit, 26 June 2022


Pressurizing Moscow’s transactions in the global financial system: The G7 countries plan to ban gold imports from Russia

The G7 countries plan to ban the import of gold from Russia
On 26 June, US president Joe Biden announced a new ban on importing Russian gold. He added: “The United States has imposed unprecedented costs on Putin to deny him the revenue he needs to fund his war against Ukraine.” UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson also mentioned that the ban would directly affect the oligarchs in Russia and cut funding to “Putin’s war machine.” The G7 countries have not officially announced the ban, but are likely to release a joint statement once the summit ends.

Targeting Russia’s global incomes
According to statistics from 2020, Russia exported gold worth USD 19 billion, accounting for five per cent of the global gold exports. Out of which, 90 per cent of Russia’s gold was consigned to G7 countries, with the UK being the largest importer. The ban, once imposed, would cause a significant loss of profits for Russia. On 26 June, The White House released a statement stating that gold was the second important source of revenue for Russia after energy, and its ban would further isolate Russia from the global economy. 

What was Russia’s plan of action in using gold? 
First, an economic defense strategy. Since the economic restrictions of 2014, Russia has prepared economic defense strategies to circumvent sanctions. For example, by 2022 Russia tripled its reserves of gold to USD 140 billion, which makes up about 20 per cent of the country’s central bank’s overall reserves. Russia also has one of the largest proven gold deposits and mined gold reserves. 

Second, pegging ruble to gold. On 29 April, Kremlin suggested pegging the ruble to gold after sanctions against Russia increased. Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that linking the Russian ruble to gold would cut Moscow’s dependence on the dollar as a global reserve currency. This resulted in strengthening the rouble’s value.

Third, converting rouble to gold. On 25 March, Russia’s central bank announced that it would buy a gram of gold for RUB 5,000 from 08 April until 30 June. The announcement encouraged the stabilization of the rouble against the dollar. This also helped Russia’s inflation rate as the bank converted the roubles received from energy exports to gold. 

In an article, Forbes mentioned this was “Russia’s golden move.” The three-step plan of Russia asking countries to pay in roubles for energy imports, then converting the roubles to gold and pegging the ruble to gold, helped its economy stay afloat amid sanctions from the West.

Russia’s potential strategies to circumvent the gold ban
First, using sanctioned countries. Countries like Venezuela have been helping Russia to circumvent the sanctions on gold since 2017. In 2021, Russia sent chartered planes to pick up gold from Venezuela and then got it refined in Mali, which was resold in UAE. Russia might use similar tactics as it sent a shipment of three tons of gold to Switzerland. 

Second, using cryptocurrency. Using cryptocurrencies backed by gold could also help Russia to continue trading internationally and avoid economic isolation. Since the cryptocurrency would be pegged to gold, it could be used as a medium to settle import and export transactions restricted for international purposes. This is a similar strategy used in Iran to mine cryptocurrencies and circumvents sanctions by the US.  

References
Background Press Call on President Biden’s First Day in Germany,” The White House, 27 June 2022 
G7 leaders to announce ban on Russian gold imports in latest sanctions against Kremlin,” Euronews, 27 June 2022 
Phil Rosen, “Russian gold exports to Switzerland point to a stealth buyer as the country's top refiners say they didn't import any,” Business Insider, 23 June 2022 
Russia’s Move To Gold May Jolt Your Company,” Forbes, 02 May 2022
"Bank of Russia Rejects Ruble-Gold Peg Idea, Differs With Kremlin,” Bloomberg, 29 April 2022
Russia's central bank says it will stop buying gold at a fixed price,” CGTN, 08 April 2022
Gina Chon, “Russia’s gold reserves buy Putin a few options,” Reuters, 28 March 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 122 & 123
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 25 June, Sievierodonetsk’s mayor, Oleksandr Stryuk reported that Russia’s troops have fully occupied the city. They have taken Syrotyne and the towns of Voronove and Borivske. The governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Gaidai, said that Ukraine’s troops in the city have been ordered to retreat to new positions. He also said that 90 per cent of the houses in the city have been shelled and 80 per cent have been critically damaged. Russian forces now control most of the Luhansk and Donestk regions, which make up the Donbas. Reportedly, Russia is moving to Lysychansk, the city facing Sievierodonetsk, on the other side of the Siversky Donets river, but Ukraine’s military command has been successful in repelling the attacks.
 
On the same day, in his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted that the war was becoming emotionally tough to handle. However, he vowed that Ukraine will take back territories under Russia’s control, including Sievierodonetsk. He said: “At this stage of the war it's spiritually difficult, emotionally difficult ... we don't have a sense of how long it will last, how many more blows, losses and efforts will be needed before we see victory is on the horizon.”
 
On 25 June, Ukraine’s military reported that cruise missiles were fired by Russia from ships in the Black sea, and they hit military positions in Lviv and Zhytomyr. However, a few missiles were shot down by Ukraine. A heavy rocket strike was also reported in a village near Chernihiv called Desna. Ukraine’s Chief of General Staff, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on the Telegram app that Ukraine has started using US supplied HIMARS rocket systems. He wrote that the rockets have been used to hit Russia’s targets in Ukraine. On 26 June, there were reports of Russia’s missiles striking the Cherkasy and Sumy regions. It resulted in the death of one person and hit a bridge that helps connect the western part of the country to the Donbas region in the east. Also on the same day, at least 14 missiles hit Kyiv, destroying an apartment block among other infrastructure. 
 
The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine said that heavy shelling has damaged a nuclear research facility in Kharkiv. However, nuclear fuel storage and radiation levels have not been affected.
 
On 25 June, Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke about their support for Moldova following their acceptance of the EU membership candidacy. This comes after Russia issued warnings of negative consequences over the membership. On 26 June, the minister said that the G7 countries must react to further missile strikes in Ukraine and should aim to impose further sanctions on Russia. He also mentioned that they must look toward supplying more arms to Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 25 June, Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu visited Ukraine, where he awarded medals to Russian soldiers. This is the first time that he visited Ukraine, since Russia’s invasion in February. 
 
On 26 June, Reuters cited Rossiya 1 state television station and reported that president Vladimir Putin will visit Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in the coming week. The president of Tajikistan, Imomali Rakhmon has been a close ally of Russia. In Turkmenistan, he will attend a meeting with leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkmenistan. This will mark his first international visit since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. His last international trip was to Beijing where China’s president Xi Jinping and Putin signed the "no limits" friendship treaty. He is also scheduled to meet Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo in Moscow. 
 
Additionally, Putin will meet Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko on 30 June and 01 July, in Grodno. He said that Russia will supply Iskander-M systems to Belarus. These are short-range missile systems that have a range of 500 kilometers and can fire ballistic and cruise missiles of both conventional and nuclear kinds. Putin also mentioned that they will assist Belarus in modifying their Su-25 warplanes, equipping them to carry nuclear weapons.
 
Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, alleged in an interview that the West is unwilling to talk about their mercenaries in Ukraine. She said this when asked about whether the US or the UK had contacted them about their nationals captured from Ukraine by Russia.
 
On the same day, TASS reported that Ukraine’s forces have hit a drilling platform in the black sea, which is owned by the Crimean oil and gas company, Chernomorneftegaz. This is the second such strike in a week.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 25 June, Poland held the Warsaw Pride march, with the full backing of the city's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. This year, the march was in collaboration with Kyiv Pride. The director of Kyiv Pride, Lenny Emson, thanked the LGBTQ community in Warsaw for including Ukraine’s LGBTQ activists in their parade.
 
On 25 June, UK’s prime minister, Boris Johnson spoke to broadcasters in the capital of Rwanda and said that he was apprehensive of Ukraine being coerced into accepting a peace deal that is not favorable to them. He said: "Too many countries are saying this is a European war that is unnecessary... and so the pressure will grow to encourage - coerce, maybe - the Ukrainians to a bad peace.” 
 
On 26 June, at the Group of Seven summit, Johnson spoke about the war in Ukraine and the fallouts of the same. However, he mentioned that while the war efforts may be costly now, the price of letting Russia triumph would be even more so. He also announced that the UK, the US, Japan, and Canada will ban the import of gold from Russia. Last year, the global gold exports from Russia were worth USD 15.45 billion. This ban, which will be to further tighten sanctions against Moscow, will come in force shortly. An official from the US also corroborated this move and said that they will announce the ban on 28 June. The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 26 June, the UN Human Rights division in Ukraine reported that they have received “hundreds of allegations of torture and ill-treatment, including conflict-related sexual violence” since Russia’s invasion in February. The UN monitoring mission in Ukraine elaborated on the kind of torture the victims had to face. They said that some people were kept tied and blindfolded for days without food or water. They were even put in closed metal boxes, beaten and subjected to mock executions. 
           
Before leaving for the G7 summit on 27 June, Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, addressed the Ukraine war. He urged Russia and Ukraine’s leaders to aim for dialogue and for Putin to order a ceasefire. He said that this was of utmost importance to reactivate the global food supply chains.
 
References
Maya Yang, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 124 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 June 2022
Matthew Weaver, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 123 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 26 June 2022
Ukraine’s Sievierodonetsk ‘Fully Occupied’ by Russian Army – Mayor,” The Moscow Times, 26 June 2022
Ukraine war: Kyiv orders forces to withdraw from Severodonetsk,” BBC, 25 June 2022
Zelenskiy says Ukraine will win back lost cities, admits war is tough to bear,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
Ukraine is already using U.S.-supplied rocket systems in conflict, top general says,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
Shelling damages Kharkiv nuclear facility in Ukraine, regulator says,” Reuters, 25 June 2022
Russia Strikes Hit Kyiv Residential Building – Mayor,” The Moscow Times, 26 June 2022
Strikes across Ukraine as world leaders meet at summit,” BBC, 26 June 2022
Ukraine stands with Moldova against threats from Russia, foreign minister says,” BBC, 25 June 2022
Ukraine: Multiple missiles hit Kyiv district — live updates,” Deutsche Welle. 26 June, 2022
G7 must respond to missile strikes with more sanctions on Russia, Ukraine's foreign minister says,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
Missiles kill one person and hit strategic bridge near Ukraine's Cherkasy – officials,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
Russia's defense minister visits troops involved in Ukraine operation,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
West unwilling to answer questions about its mercenaries in Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 26 June 2022
Russia's Putin to make first foreign trips since launching Ukraine war,” Reuters, 27 June 2022
Russia promises Belarus Iskander-M nuclear-capable missiles,” BBC, 26 June 2022
Boris Johnson says he fears Ukraine will be coerced to make a 'bad peace',” Reuters, 25 June 2022
UK's Boris Johnson: cost of Russian victory in Ukraine is too high,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
UK, U.S., Japan and Canada to ban Russia gold imports,” Reuters, 26 June 2022
Steve Holland and Trevor Hunnicutt “Biden, G7 leaders to agree on import ban on Russian gold,” Reuters, 25 June 2022
Polish and Ukrainian activists march for LGBTQ rights in Warsaw,” France24, 25 June 2022
Indonesia president to visit Ukraine, Russia on peace-building mission,” Reuters, 26 June 202


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

NORWAY
Oslo shooting recognized as an act of terrorism by Norwegian authorities
On 25 June, a Norwegian resident of Iranian origin went on a shooting spree at 1.15 am local time, killing two people and injuring twenty-one others. 10 of them were gravely injured. Norway’s PST intelligence services deemed a 42-year-old radicalized Islamist to be responsible for the act of terrorism. Authorities confiscated two weapons from the shooter before arresting him. Concerns have been raised over his mental health. London Pub, a popular LGBTQ+ gathering location, Herr Nilsen jazz club, and a takeaway food outlet were the places that were targeted by the shooter. The pride parade was suspended after the incident took place hours before its start. But the LGBTQ community stood in solidarity and marched on the streets, stating that they would not let the shooter win. Elsewhere similar emotions were seen in Turkey where around 200 people were detained by the police due to defying the law by marching pride parade which was banned since 2014.  ("Oslo shooting: Norway attack being treated as Islamist terrorism, police say," BBC News, 26 June 2022; Jon Henley, "Norway on highest terror alert after two killed in mass shootings," the Guardian, 25 June 2022; “Turkey: More than 200 arrests in Istanbul as LGBTQ marchers try to defy Pride ban,” Le Monde, 27 June 2022)

THE UK
Probe reveals the number of deaths of asylum seekers more than previously informed
On 25 June, the Observer and Liberty Investigate reported on fatalities of asylum seekers housed by the Home Office of the UK between April 2016 and May 2022. The report revealed that the number was higher than what was previously acknowledged. The Home Office documents reported that at least 17 individuals died by suicide or were thought to have committed suicide. The term "safeguarding element" which indicates people with vulnerabilities or needs like a health condition was used by the department to label in half the deaths since the beginning of 2020. The investigators claimed "systemic failures" are in how some of these incidents were dealt with. This includes possible safeguarding policy gaps and alleged breaches that followed them. (Jessica Purkiss, Aaron Walawalkar, Mirren Gidda, Eleanor Rose & Mark Townsend, “Revealed: dozens of vulnerable asylum seekers have died in Home Office housing since 2020,” the Guardian, 25 June)

REGIONAL
European leaders express resentment over US supreme court decision on the abortion law
On 25 June, the head of states of European countries expressed disbelief and disappointment in the US Supreme Court's decision to revoke the right for women to receive an abortion. The prime minister of Luxembourg Xavier Bettel stated: “Making abortions illegal isn’t pro-life. It’s anti-choice.” The recent US court decision invalidates the famous Roe versus Wade precedent, which safeguarded a woman's right to have an abortion. The prime minister of Belgium, Alexander De Croo, tweeted, "Prohibiting abortion merely encourages riskier abortions; it never results in fewer abortions He added that Belgium will continue to collaborate with other nations to improve #SRHR worldwide. Greece’s prime minister,  Kyriakos Mitotakis and  France’s president, Emmanuel Macron also critiqued the decision. (David M. Herszenhorn, “European leaders decry US restriction of abortion rights,” POLITICO, 25 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
23 die while trying to cross to the Melilla enclave of Spain
On 24 June, hundreds of asylum-seeking Africans tried to cross into the Melilla enclave of Spain. At least 23 have died due to the mass migration which assumed the form of a stampede. NGOs on the ground said that the number might increase upon further investigation. Morocco’s forces were seen to have attacked the migrants with fully equipped riot gear. Spanish forces aided Morocco in the indiscriminate use of violence by throwing stones and tear gas at the migrants. This was the first attempt at crossing the Spanish enclave of Melilla after Spain and Morocco resumed their diplomatic relations following a year-long dispute. 133 people made it across the fence and were processed at the reception centre. Several NGOs have called for an investigation of the incident. ("Dozens die trying to cross into Spanish enclave of Melilla," BBC News, 26 June 2022; Ashifa Kassam, "Calls for investigation over deaths in Moroccan-Spanish border crossing," the Guardian, 26 June 2022)

Major European firms and banks backing deforestation by a Brazilian meat company 
On 24 June, various banks, UK supermarkets, and an Italian leather supplier were accused of colluding with the Brazilian meat giant JBS. JBS is said to be responsible for deforestation, land-grabbing, and the use of slave labour in the Amazon region. These companies were said to have funded billions of dollars to JBS in their illegal activities. The banks, UK supermarkets, and the Italian leather supplier company have either denied knowing of the deforestation or said that they would clear their mistakes global Witness, the investigating agency revealed that deforestation has reached record levels in the Amazon due to companies like JBS. The government activities have weakened environmental laws and policies which in turn has led to the exploitation of the forest land and local resources by corporates such as JBS. Many from direct and indirect supply chains of JBS had cleared the forest illegally for cattle ranches. JBS has committed to monitoring its supply chains by 2025 to reduce this deforestation (Sophie Kevany, "Banks and UK supermarkets accused of backing deforestation in Brazil," the Guardian, 24 June 2022


25 June 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #237

Bulgaria: Government loses no-confidence motion | War in Ukraine: Day 121

Germany revokes a Nazi-era law on abortion; Boris Johnson talks about by-election defeats in a press conference

Photo : AP Photo/Valentina Petrova


IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee

Bulgaria: Government loses no-confidence motion in six months
On 22 June, members of the parliament voted for a no-confidence motion against Bulgaria's prime minister Kiril Petkov’s government. Of the 240 seats, 123 voted for the motion, while 116 voted against it. The coalition government comprises Petkov’s centrist We Continue The Change (PP) party, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the anti-establishment There is Such a People’s Party (ITN), and right-wing Democratic Bulgaria (DB). The coalition was voted to power six months ago, in December 2021.
 
There has been a growing discontentment with Petkov’s governance. His pro-Europe and pro-NATO election mandate had sought to combat the endemic corruption in Bulgaria. However, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the fault lines in the unstable four-party ruling coalition started to emerge.

Issues leading to the no-confidence motion
First, the governments’ consideration for North Macedonia’s EU accession. Bulgaria has been opposing North Macedonia’s membership bid because they want North Macedonia to acknowledge a Bulgarian minority in its constitution. However, Petkov recently indicated that Bulgaria might consider lifting its veto due to pressure from the EU and NATO. The move incited significant disagreement with the coalition, where the There is Such a People’s Party (ITN) felt that Petkov was ignoring Bulgaria’s interests. 
 
Second, Petkov’s strong anti-Russia stance. In February, Petkov fired his defence minister because he had refused to call Russia’s invasion a war. Bulgaria has also supported the EU sanctions against Moscow. Moreover, to show their support for Ukraine, they have also agreed to repair Ukraine’s military machinery. Historically, Bulgaria has been an ally of Moscow. Thus, Petkov’s strong position against Russia has also catalyzed politicians in Bulgaria to promote neutrality.
 
Third, Bulgaria’s economic crisis was due to Petkov’s fiscal policies. In the budget approved in January 2022, Bulgaria said it would double its capital investment to boost economic growth and living standards. However, the ITN has accused the government of pushing the country towards bankruptcy by raising the new debt. Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member, has also been dealing with rising inflation due to the country’s expansionary policies. Last month, it reached 15.6 per cent, which is the highest increase in consumer prices since 2008. 
 
Fourth, withdrawal of ITN’s support. PP’s coalition partner ITN quit abruptly this month, complaining about fiscal mismanagement and Bulgaria’s stance on North Macedonia. Even though five legislators defected to Petkov’s party, his coalition still fell short of surviving the motion.

What lies ahead after the no-confidence vote?
The no-confidence motion was lodged by the main opposition GERB party. President Rumen Radev will offer the PP party a second chance to propose a government. However, two more attempts will be given to different parties if they fail. However, if those fail, the president will appoint a caretaker government and call for fresh elections. If elections do take place, it will mark the fourth parliamentary election in Bulgaria since April 2021.
 
Petkov pointed out two significant issues causing his coalition’s troubles: the pro-Russian influence in Bulgaria and the corrupt interests. He said: “It’s a tough few days ahead. We are fighting hard to stay on the right side of history.” He also mentioned that he feared Bulgaria would again take up the “traditional role of a soft state.” Petkov has also rejected any coalition talks with opposition parties in the chamber. Instead, he will seek defections from lawmakers in the parliament to form a new government and avoid early elections.

Implications of the government’s fall
First, the economic burden of conducting parliamentary elections. Given the current fiscal condition of Bulgaria, the fourth election since April 2021 might cause tremendous pressure on Bulgaria’s already stretched economy.

Second, Bulgaria’s relation with the EU. The fall of this government can hinder Bulgaria’s adoption of the Euro, which is scheduled for 2024. Moreover, the current crisis might also delay the EUR 6.3 billion that Bulgaria is supposed to receive as a part of the EU’s Covid-19 Recovery Funds. Petkov’s removal from power will also affect the EU’s efforts to break a deadlock over North Macedonia and Albania’s accession efforts. 
 
Third, concerns about energy supply. The government’s fall can also hinder Bulgaria’s efforts to secure stable natural gas inflows. The country was heavily dependent on Russian gas but had refused to play in Rubles. In April, Russia stopped its gas supply to Bulgaria, and the EU has since supported the country.

References
Bulgaria faces fresh political turmoil as government loses confidence vote,” Euronews, 23 June 2022
Valentina Petrova and Stephen McGrath, “Bulgarian PM appeals for support ahead of no-confidence vote,” AP News, 22 June 2022
Bulgaria government collapses after no-confidence vote,” Deutsche Welle, 22 June 2022
Slav Okov and Misha Savic, “Bulgarian Turmoil Deepens as Premier Loses Confidence Vote,” Bloomberg, 22 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 121
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 
 
War on the Ground
On 24 June, Ukraine recorded 200-300 war crimes committed by Russian forces daily. Ukraine’s prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova added: “Very often we do not have access to territories or people at all. However, this does not mean that we should not start an investigation. We will always do it.” 

On 23 June, Ukraine stated that it had filed a case to end “the mass and gross human rights violations” against Russia at the European court of human rights. Ukraine’s justice ministry said that Russia’s invasion was illegal and wanted to contest it under the European convention on human rights.

Also, on 24 June, Ukraine said it planned to withdraw its troops from the city of Sievierodonetsk. This comes weeks after street fighting and indiscriminate bombing by Russia. Sievierodonetsk’s governor mentioned that this would give Russia a significant advantage in the east. 

On the same day, Ukraine’s security agency accused lawmaker Andriy Derkach of being a Russian spy. Derkach was previously accused of similar wrongdoings and pleaded not guilty. However, the State Security Service (SBU) said Derkach had received USD three to four million to fulfill a plan to allow Russia’s vehicles into the city. The US treasury also sanctioned him in September 2020 for influencing the US elections. 

On 24 June, Ukraine’s forces informed the US that they needed “fire parity” to counter Russia’s advancement in the eastern region of Luhansk. This comes as Russia’s artillery is at an advantage in the Donbas region and has inflicted more damage on Ukraine’s forces.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 24 June, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the decision to allow Ukraine and Moldova into the EU would have negative consequences. Russia claimed that this amounted to the EU “enslaving” neighboring countries. Zakharova added: “…the European Union has confirmed that it continues to actively exploit the CIS on a geopolitical level, to use it to ‘contain’ Russia.” 

On the same day, at a press conference in Azerbaijan, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the EU and NATO were acting similarly to Hitler in World War II. He argued that Hitler, too, had united many numbers under his banner against the Soviet Union, and now the two blocs were doing the same. However, Lavrov added: “The development of its relations with any willing countries does not create threats or risks for us.”

Also, on 24 June, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov talked about the speculations of Germany potentially nationalizing a section of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. He claimed that these were only hypothetical discussions, and Russia would respond with legal actions if needed. 

On 24 June, Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov stated that 41 soldiers of Ukraine had voluntarily surrendered in the Lugansk region. Konashenkov also said that 2,000 troops were trapped in Gorskoye and Zolotoye areas due to Russia’s encirclement. 

On the same day, Peskov talked about the situation in Kaliningrad as Lithuania had blocked its road access to its exclave. Peskov added: “Regretfully, they are not our partners any longer, they are our opponents now.” 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 24 June, Washington called out to Moscow to reveal the locations of the US military veterans captured by Russia’s forces. On 23 June, Peskov had mentioned the two military veterans Drueke and Huynh and called them soldiers of fortune. He added that the two soldiers had threatened the lives of the military service members of Russia in the Donbas region. 

On the same day, the US announced to send additional military assistance of USD 450 million to Ukraine. The shipments would consist of rocket systems to support Ukraine’s artillery to defend against Russia. White House spokesman John Kirby said: “This package contains weapons and equipment, including new High Mobility Artillery Rocket systems.” This would bring the US military contributions to USD 6.1 billion. 

On 24 June, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson said that London was willing to assist Ukraine in de-mining the southern coasts. Johnson also extended the UK’s help to move millions of tonnes of grain stuck in the country. He added: “There is a job of work to be done. We are working with the Turks and other European friends and allies to see what we can do.”

On the same day, the UK announced a ban on exporting jet fuel and banknotes to Russia. In addition, it had updated the list of banned exported goods and prohibitions on using Sterling or EURO banknotes in Russia. 

Also, on 24 June, after the EU granted Ukraine and Moldova as candidates for membership, European council president Charles Michel called it “a historic moment.” However, the EU’s commission has still put forward seven key reforms for Ukraine to fulfill by the end of this year to be a member of the EU. The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 24 June, UNESCO said that 150 cultural sites in Ukraine were destroyed or damaged due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UNESCO’s director-general Audrey Azoulay said: “I reiterate my call for the respect of international humanitarian law, in particular the Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict.” 

Also, on 24 June, the IAEA raised concerns for its staff in Ukraine’s power plant as Russia had restricted the agency’s access to the Zaporizhzhia plant. As a result, the IAEA said it wanted to send another mission to check on its staff working under the Russian troops to maintain the nuclear plant’s integrity. 

On the same day, The UN’s chief, Antonio Guterres, announced his opposition to Russia being excluded from the UN ocean conference. Guterres argued that Russia was an active contributor to pollution, which is why it should also participate in solving the problems. 

On 24 June, Guterres also stated about a “real risk” of multiple famines this year. At a meeting in Berlin, he mentioned that the world would face an unprecedented global hunger crisis due to climate disruption, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the deeply unequal recovery.

References
Ukraine is recording 200-300 war crimes committed by Russian forces on Ukrainian territory everyday, Ukrinform reports,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
Ukraine, in symbolic move, files European court case against Russia,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
Max Hunder and Tom Balmforth, “Ukraine set to quit ruined Sievierodonetsk as Russians close in,” Reuters, 24 June 2022 
Ukraine accuses U.S.-sanctioned lawmaker of working for Russia,” Reuters, 24 June 2022 
Ukraine needs 'fire parity' with Russia to defend Luhansk region, top general says,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
Russia says EU candidate status for Ukraine, Moldova will have negative consequences,” Reuters, 24 June 2022 
Europe’s coalition against Russia and Kiev’s EU candidate status: Lavrov in Baku,” TASS, 24 June 2022 
Kremlin mum on reports about Germany nationalizing Nord Stream 2 section,” TASS, 24 June 2022 
Russian army seals off 2,000 Ukrainian troops in Gorskoye-Zolotoye trap, top brass reports,” TASS, 24 June 2022  
Granting EU candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova does not pose risks for Russia — Lavrov,” TASS, 24 June 2022 
Russia full of determination over Kaliningrad situation — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 24 June 2022
US pushing Kremlin to reveal location of veterans captured in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022  
The United States is sending additional military assistance to Ukraine, the White House announced on Thursday,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, has said Britain is willing to assist with de-mining operations off Ukraine’s southern coast and was considering offering insurance to ships to move millions of tonnes of grain stuck in the country,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022 
UK government bans export of jet fuel, banknotes to Russia,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
Jorge Liboreiro, “Approved! EU countries endorse Ukraine and Moldova as official candidates to join bloc,” Euronews, 24 June 2022
Over 150 cultural sites in Ukraine have been partially or totally destroyed, UNESCO announced on Thursday,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022  
IAEA voices concern for staff at Ukrainian nuclear plant, demands access,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
Michelle Nichols, “World faces unprecedented global hunger crisis, U.N. chief says,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
UN chief opposes Russia's exclusion from UN Ocean Conference — agency,” TASS, 24 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

BULGARIA
Bulgaria lifts veto on Northern Macedonia's EU talks
On 24 June, Bulgarian legislators voted in favour of lifting the EU ban on Northern Macedonia's membership. The Bulgarian government had vetoed Northern Macedonia's EU talks from 2020 as there had been bad blood between both nations. This decision came right after prime minister Kiril Petkov's government was overturned by the vote of no-confidence. The Bulgarian lawmakers said that they would stand by their neighbours in joining the EU by acting in the interest of the Western Balkans. The decision was approved by a majority of 170 votes. Sofia pressed Skopje to recognize that their language has Bulgarian roots. They had to acknowledge Bulgarian minorities residing in Northern Macedonia. ("Bulgaria: Lawmakers agree to lift block on North Macedonia EU talks," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)

GERMANY
Parliament revokes a law that punishes doctors who advertise abortion services
On 24 June, the coalition government voted to scrap the Nazi-era law in paragraph 219a of the German criminal code that criminalizes doctors who advertise their abortion services. According to paragraph 219a of the German Criminal Code, a doctor might be fined or imprisoned for up to two years for publicly "offering, announcing, or advertising" abortion services. Abortion remains to be legally banned in Germany. However, if the pregnancy poses a health risk, as in the case of rape, or if the abortion is performed during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy following mandated counselling, women and doctors do not face the punishments. Minister of family affairs, Lisa Paus stated that the result was a triumph that strengthens women’s right to self-determination in Germany.  (Phillip Olterman, “Germany scraps Nazi-era law that barred doctors' abortion ads,” the Guardian, 24 June 2022) 

NORWAY
Bow and arrow murderer sentenced to a mental institution by a Norwegian court
On 24 June, a Danish man was sentenced to a mandatory mental institution after he was agreed to be mentally ill during the attack by a Norwegian court. The man had attacked a Norwegian town with knives, a bow, and arrows, killing 5 people in October last year. He pleaded guilty to all charges and was deemed to be mentally ill. He was found to be suffering from chronic paranoid schizophrenia at the time of the attack. He was not held criminally responsible for his actions as both the prosecution and defense agreed that he was not mentally right. The Norwegian court gave a judgment for him to be taken to mental health care for treatment. ("Norway: Bow-and-arrow attacker sentenced to psychiatric care," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)

SWITZERLAND
Toblerone to set up a new production factory in Slovakia
On 24 June, a famous chocolate company, Toblerone will lose its Switzerland tag as they consider opening a new production line in Slovakia. According to Switzerland law, it cannot call itself a Swiss company as it would not be exclusive to the country after it opens a new factory in Slovakia. The company, which was established by the Tobler family in 1908, has its factory in Bern. Due to increased demand for their triangular chocolate, which was inspired by the Swiss Alps, they have expanded to Slovakia. Mondolez, the owner of Toblerone said that this move would allow the chocolate company to increase its production by many times. The company would no longer describe itself as Swiss but rather originated from Switzerland after it starts the manufacturing process from the new factory in 2023. ("Toblerone chocolate to lose 'Switzerland' tag," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)

THE UK
Boris Johnson says to listen and learn after his party faces two by-election losses
On 25 June, prime minister Boris Johnson of the UK commented on the recent by-election losses faced by his Conservative Party. The party lost its Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton to the Liberal Democrats and Wakefield to the Labour Party. Many of Johnson's MPs request a change in leadership as they blame him for the losses, while the others backed him up. Johnson said that the current rise in the cost of living issue is the reason for the request for a change of leadership as the people blame governments for any inconveniences. He further talked about the defeat in a press conference in Kigali, Rwanda, stating that they have got to listen and learn from their mistakes. He said that he would focus on delivering for the country. Many of his MPs support his leadership, however, few oppose him and ask for resetting the leader. According to Johnson, two by-election losses should not affect the government and is not his fault. (Kate Whannel, "Boris Johnson admits by-election results 'not brilliant' but vows to go on," BBC News, 25 June 2022)

The government provides excess carbon subsidies to airlines, which contradicts polluters-pay principle
On 24 June, the clean transport campaign group Transport and Environment published a report which found that the UK government offered airlines with roughly a quarter of a billion pounds in free pollution permits in a single year. The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS), which charges polluters for each tonne of carbon dioxide generated, gave airlines 4.4 million free credits in 2021, whereas the sector only returned 3.4 million. As a result, the whole cost of the emissions from the aviation sector was covered by UK taxpayers, with some left over. Because of the government's generosity, the aviation sector could pollute without paying a fee, and airlines were left with 900,000 extra credits that they could either keep or sell. T&E discovered that if airlines had sold their extra credits at the peak of the market last year for GBP 79.20 each, they might have gained GBP 72 million. (Damien Gayle, “UK gave airlines 4.4m free pollution permits in 2021, study finds,” the Guardian, 24 June 2022)

REGIONAL
The EU ought to transfer technology and knowledge to Africa: Report 
On 23 June, the European Parliament published a report on the future of African trade relations with the EU. The report advocates the use of trade policy to equalize relations between countries in Africa and the EU. A significant concern raised in the report is the fact that the majority of commodities imported into the EU from Africa are primary goods like food, drink, and energy. Whereas the majority of goods shipped out of the EU are higher-value manufactured goods like machinery and pharmaceuticals. The report states: "Due to the continued direction of the trade from colonial times, wealth is being transferred continuously from the African periphery to the industrialized and increasingly digitized centers." Therefore, the EU is responsible and reasonable to share its technical knowledge with Africa to encourage manufacturing in the region. (Ella Joyner, “European Parliament advocates equalizing EU trade relations with Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022) 

CLIMATE CHANGE
G7’s energy security plans might contradict its climate goals
On 24 June, POLITICO in an article anticipates that ahead of the Group of Seven (G7) summit, a proposal being discussed by the group would suggest utilizing tax money for natural gas projects, which might conflict with the group's climate goals. The group has committed to decreasing its consumption of fossil fuels this decade by signing multiple declarations for a safer climate. However, there will be pressure on the leaders to address both the drive to wean the EU off of its reliance on Russian energy and the soaring cost of energy when they meet in Germany for the summit. If the G7's energy security strategy calls for public funding of international projects, it would conflict with a pledge made by every member of the group at the COP26 climate talks in 2021 to end public support for foreign fossil fuel investments by the end of 2022. (Karl Mathisesen and David M. Herszenhorn, “G7 mulls call for ‘necessary’ public gas investments,” POLITICO, 24 June 2022)


24 June 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #236

Turkey and Saudi Arabia mending ties, what lies ahead? | War in Ukraine: Day 120

UK lawyers investigate pro-bono into Yazidi genocide; Putin addresses virtually at BRICS summit; Western Balkans-EU summit discusses membership process

Photo : Turkish Presidency/ AP


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Turkey and Saudi Arabia mending ties, what lies ahead?

Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Ankara 
On 22 June, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Ankara and met with Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Prince Mohammed was welcomed with all-state honors and visit marked the end of the animosity between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Bilateral ties were disrupted between the two countries due to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. However, the relations seem to be changing with Prince Mohammed’s visit and Turkey handing over Khashoggi’s case to Saudi Arabia in April. 

US president Joe Biden is also scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia in July and will meet Prince Mohammed. However, this raised accusations of “betrayal,” as Biden had earlier agreed to de-classify an intelligence report that found prince Mohammed’s direct involvement in the murder of Khashoggi. This would cause him to step back from his vow to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah.”

Erdogan and Prince Mohammed fixing their issues: Three reasons why
First, consolidating regional influence. Turkey’s support to Qatar increased after Saudi Arabia and other countries blockaded relations with Ankara over its relations with Tehran. Additionally, the murder of Khashoggi in Ankara was an added contention between the two countries which severed political and economic ties between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. However, now both the countries want to play a more proactive role in the region by moving away from regional divisions and economic isolation. Saudi Arabia has been pushing to mend ties with Qatar and Turkey as it is concerned about Iran’s role within the region. 

Second, US’ tilt toward Iran. With Saudi Arabia declining to increase crude oil production and the US trying to revive the 2015 JCPOA agreement, relations between the two have soured. The US pivot to the Indo-Pacific has raised concerns as it would shift Washington’s focus away from the Middle Eastern region leaving commitments to Saudi Arabia vulnerable. Following the increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Washington and Riyadh relations have further strained.

Third, expanding economies. As Erdogan and Prince Mohammed turned frenemies, the two countries halted their economic ties, which had affected regional trade. Saudi Arabia had announced an unofficial embargo on Turkish exports, which had disrupted bilateral trade worth USD five billion. Bilateral investments were also directly affected as Turkey invested USD 660 million in Saudi Arabia, as Riyadh invested USD two million in Ankara. Thus, the two countries initiated mending ties to improve bilateral trade and investments. 

A boon for Turkey’s economy and Erdogan’s political image 
Saudi Arabia has been economically faring well as its foreign reserves are expected to climb upward, and its energy revenue is set to reach USD 400 billion. This indicates the possibility of Saudi Arabia investing in Turkey and allowing bilateral trade to return to normalcy. Erdogan also hopes that the mending of ties could encourage investments from Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries since Turkey has been facing an economic crisis. Improved relations would also help Erdogan get re-elected in the upcoming general elections in 2023.  

References
Ruth Michaelson, “Saudi crown prince visits Turkey as relations thaw after Khashoggi murder,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022 
Steven A Cook, “Why Turkey Is Resetting Relations With Saudi Arabia,” Council on Foreign Relations, 04 May 2022
Explainer: Why Are Foes Turkey and Saudi Arabia Fixing Ties?,” Voice of America, 29 April 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 120
By Padmashree Anandhan
 
War on the Ground
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy observed that the Russian forces had been carrying out attacks in eastern Donbas in a similar way it did in Mariupol. He said: “…they want to destroy the whole Donbas step by step. Entire. Lysychansk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk - they aim to turn any city into Mariupol. Completely ruined.”

There were several attacks observed by the Ukraine armed forces in the Mykolaiv where three cruise missiles were launched and the force took down two. Ukraine also announced holding the first trial against a Russian soldier who has been charged with sexual assault on Ukrainian women during wartime. The charged soldier known as Mikhail Romanov is also accused of murdering a civilian on 9 March.

Zaporizhzhia region mayor, Dmytro Orlov reported that civilians and workers at the Enerhodar nuclear plant were being captured by Russian forces. He said: “Whereabouts of some unknown. The rest are in very difficult conditions: they are being tortured with electric shock, bullied physically and morally.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

Russia's defence ministry claimed that the Russian Navy handled the exit of Turkey’s cargo ship “Azov Concord.” TASS reported that it will be the first ship to exit from Mariupol and go towards Novorossiysk. The move comes after the discussion took place between Turkey and Russia on ensuring safe exit and navigation to the Black Sea for Turkey’s ships. After Azov, there are still five ships left in the Mariupol to be deported. Apart from this he also reported on supply humanitarian activities held in Donetsk and Lugansk regions, where 183 tonnes of aid were given to people. He also enlisted those involved in the aid activities which included, “ministries, federal services, and agencies, political parties, and non-governmental organizations.”

On 23 June, Russia’s National Defense Management Center chief, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev reported that without engaging with the Kyiv authorities, Russia had transferred or evacuated close to two million people including 300,000 children till now invasion began. He said: “Despite all the obstacles created by official Kyiv, 23,775 people, including 3,676 children, have been evacuated to the Russian Federation from dangerous areas of the Donbas republics and Ukraine in the past 24 hours.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 23 June, the EU leaders announced the recognition of Ukraine and Moldova as candidates for membership for the EU. Upon the announcement, the western Balkan states criticized the slow progress of their membership status at the EU. The Balkan states, Albania, and North Macedonia were previously given candidate status in 2004 and 2005, since then the progress has been slowed. The key reason is due to Bulgaria’s block where it demands to settle down the historical and language disputes to proceed to the accession to the EU. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “I am deeply convinced that our decision that we have taken today strengthens us all.”

Germany and Denmark have issued an alert stating an “emergency” on the supply chain issues faced in importing gas. The alert was previously issued in March 2022 as “phase 1” alert and it needs to ensure the status does not shoot to “phase 3” where the government will be directly involved in cutting down gas to non-essential companies.

Denmark has announced its plans to send it frigate crew off 135 soldiers to take part in a NATO exercise as part of their deterrence activities in the North Atlantic. The exercise involved other countries such as Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Canada.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 23 June, ICRC head to Ukraine, Pascal Hundt, said that ICRC was ready to coordinate agreements on the civilian evacuation from Donbas combat zone. He also spoke on how the parties to the conflict must involve duly in the evacuation process and ensure a passage for people to exit the war zones. He said: “Since the beginning of May, ICRC teams have assisted over 900,000 vulnerable people with food, livelihood, and cash assistance as well as hygiene material.”

Nike, the US sportswear company has announced its exit from Russia. It has stopped its online sale and closed down its physical stores in Russia. The statement released said: “Our priority is to ensure we are fully supporting our employees while we responsibly scale down our operations over the coming months.”

References
Today in Denmark: A roundup of the news on Friday,” The Local dk, 24 June 2022
EU leaders grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022
Western Balkans determined on membership after EU talks,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022
Over two million people evacuated from Ukraine, Donbass to Russia — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 23 June 2022
Russian Defense Ministry confirms Turkey’s Azov Concord left port of Mariupol,” TASS, 23 June 2022
Over 183 tonnes of aid delivered to DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye region — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 23 June 2022
ICRC ready to facilitate agreements on evacuation of civilians from Donbass combat zone,” TASS, 23 June 2022
Nike latest brand to leave Russia permanently,” BBC, 23 June 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 120 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 23 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

THE UK
Lawyers investigate the failure of states in preventing Yazidi genocide of 2013
On 21 June, a group of prominent lawyers from the UK announced their collaboration as the Yazidi Justice Committee (YJC) to privately investigate the failure of states to prevent the genocide committed in Northern Iraq. The lawyers have been compiling evidence for the past two and a half years to reveal that some counties failed in their international obligations to stop the genocide against the Yazidis in early 2013. The YJC will likely name three countries in a report in early July. It would be one of the first cases in which nations would have to worry about legal action being taken against them for failing to stop a genocide, and it would shape the future of human rights accountability. Ten nations may be held legally liable for failing to prevent genocide under the UN's Genocide Convention, according to evidence evaluated by the YJC lawyers who are working pro bono. (Patrick Wintour, “UK lawyers gather evidence for action against countries over Yazidi genocide,” The Guardian, 21 June 2022)  

TURKEY
Ankara prevents alleged attacks on Israel’s citizens ahead of Lapid's visit
On 23 June, the foreign minister of Israel, Yapir Lapid, appreciated Turkey for preventing and arresting five individuals from Iran suspected of planning attacks on Israel’s citizens in Ankara. Lapid met with the foreign minister of Turkey, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to mend their poor relations amid Ankara’s fervent support for Palestine. During investigations of the suspects’ lodgings in homes and hotels, police found two firearms and two silencers. Labid stated: “We’re not only talking about the murder of innocent Israeli tourists, but also a clear violation of Turkish sovereignty by Iranian terror. We are confident that Turkey knows how to respond to the Iranians on this matter.” (“Turkey foils alleged Iran plot to kill Israelis in Istanbul,” Al Jazeera, 23 June 2022)

REGIONAL
Western Balkans reiterate their desire to join EU
On 23 June, Western Balkan countries and the EU met in Brussels to discuss their membership in the union. North Macedonia and Albania are upset with Bulgaria for hindering the accession process with the EU. The president of North Macedonia, Stevo Pendarovski, deemed it “unacceptable” that Bulgaria had made it a requirement for the accession process that Skopje and Sofia debate matters of “shared history,” language, and identity. The EU leaders have stated that they would attempt to give “full and unequivocal commitment to the EU membership perspective of the Western Balkans.” (“Western Balkans determined on membership after EU talks,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
US private equity investor set to takeover UK defense supplier
On 23 June, the aerospace manufacturing company Cobham was permitted to acquire a UK defense supplier called Ultra Electronics. Cobham, based in Bournemouth, England, was taken over by a US private equity investor, Advent, in 2019. Therefore the firm will be further controlling a significant supplier of nuclear submarine technologies. Under the terms of accession, Cobham will have to establish two “SecureCos” to host “sensitive capabilities.” The government will approve the articles of association for these firms, and it will have a seat on their boards. The government will also have “step-in rights,” which will enable it to seize control of the SecureCos for national security reasons. (Jasper Jolly, “Takeover of UK defence supplier Ultra Electronics set to be approved,” The Guardian, 23 June 2022) 

Foundation laid for first modern vaccine plant in Africa by German firm
On 23 June, the pharmaceutical company BioVTech from Germany laid the foundation stone for its COVID-19 vaccine plant in Kigali, Rwanda. The ceremony was attended by the president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, and other state leaders, in addition to representatives from the EU and the WHO. The 30,000 square meter factory in Kigali would initially have two modular vaccine production containers and have an estimated annual capacity of roughly 50 million vaccine doses. According to BioNTech, the firm will be able to grow production as needed by basing the factory on modular containers. The first shipment of containers is anticipated to reach Rwanda in the latter half of 2022, with the beginning of vaccine manufacturing following 12 to 18 months. The Rwandan facility will be the first mRNA vaccination production in Africa once it is operational. (Isac Mugabi, “BioNTech breaks ground on first mRNA vaccine plant in Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Putin calls BRICS countries to cooperate, amid sanctions on Russia
On 23 June, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, in a virtual address to the BRICS summit hosted by China, called on the member countries to cooperate with him as he rerouted his trade. Putin also blamed the West for causing a global crisis. He claimed that Western countries were "using financial mechanisms" to "shunt their own failures in macroeconomic policy onto the whole world" in response to the sanctions. He further stated that the leadership of BRICS is needed now more than ever to chart a unified, constructive path toward the creation of a truly multipolar system of intergovernmental relations. (“Putin urges BRICS nations to cooperate with Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022


23 June 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #235

EU’s strategies countering rising inflation | War in Ukraine: Day 119

Bulgarian government falls again; UK funds projects for seafarers’ mental health; Saudi Prince visits Ankara; Western Balkan heads decide to withdraw from boycotting EU summit

Photo : Reuters/Dado Ruvic/Ilustration


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

EU’s strategies countering rising inflation

On 22 June, according to the Daily Express, the EU’s inflation has hit 8.8 per cent, the highest since the creation of the Euro in 1999. The EU’s finance chief Mairead McGuinness has blamed the rising costs on the bloc’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The EU relies on Russian energy supplies for up to 27 per cent, and the recent sanctions have driven up prices. Estonia is the worst-hit EU member with a 20 per cent inflation rate, while Latvia and Lithuania face a rate of 16.9 and 18.9, respectively. In contrast, non-EU members such as Switzerland and Liechtenstein have recorded their lowest interest rates of 2.9 and 2.5 percent. 

The World Economic Forum said it blamed the inflation rate on the post-pandemic recovery plans and the sudden change in spending habits in the Eurozone. This comes as the EU had allocated a EUR 672.5 billion economic plan to benefit the EU’s member states. This is similar to Washington’s USD 1.9 trillion American rescue plan and stimulus checks which have been blamed for causing rapid inflation in the US. The EU speculates prices to increase by the year-end as the demand for lower cost of living and higher energy prices would increase during the winter season.

The EU’s strategies to contain the inflation 
First, raising the interest rates. On 09 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced to increase its interest rate for the first time in 11 years. The increase in the interest rate would encourage people to deposit their money into the central banks and help curb inflation in the Eurozone. The central bank plans to increase its interest rates by July and then September saying the bank would have future increases in a “gradual but sustained path.” This comes as the ECB faces a deposit rate of minus 0.5 per cent which would gradually change once the interest rates increase. 

Second, curbing the sale of bond yields in unstable economies. ECB president Christine Lagarde stated that to tackle inflation “in the bud,” they had to curb bond yields of unstable economies. This comes as Italy and Spain’s bond yields reached their highest level for eight years and asked the government to stop selling more bonds and start raising interest rates to help curb inflation in the Eurozone. The ECB is worried that a bond market panic could further push up the borrowing costs of unstable and weaker economies, which could then drag the entire Eurozone into a financial crisis. 

Third, the EU’s QTQE approach to fragmentation. The EU is also trying to balance its contractionary monetary policies by applying quantitative tightening (QT) with quantitative easing (QE) in the already fragmented economic landscape. In addition, it plans on using the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) to control the market of member states where it is needed and to limit spending only where needed. The ECB said: “The pandemic has left lasting vulnerabilities in the euro area economy which are indeed contributing to the uneven transmission of the normalization of our monetary policy across jurisdictions.”

Nevertheless, policymakers are still concerned about the EU’s policies backfiring as they could cause market concerns in the Eurozone’s growth outlook. As a result, the bank stated that the Eurozone would only grow 2.8 per cent instead of the forecasted 3.7 per cent. Lagarde, in response, mentioned, “Inflation will remain undesirably elevated for some time,” as the bank forecasted growth of only 2.1 per cent in 2023 and 2024. 

References
Declan Carey, “Inflation rates in Europe by country revealed as continent battles with price hikes,” Daily Express, 22 June 2022
Jorge Liboreiro, “Why do central banks raise interest rates to curb inflation?,” Euronews, 20 June 2022
John Revill and Andy Bruce, “Europe’s central banks jack up interest rates to fight inflation surge,” Reuters, 16 June 2022
Eshe Nelson, “European Central Bank says it will raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years in July,” The New York Times, 09 June 2022
Opinion: Europe's monetary policy shift comes (too) late,” Deutsche Welle, 09 June 2022
Christine Lagarde, “Monetary policy normalisation in the euro area,” ECB, 23 May 202


War in Ukraine: Day 119
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the EU countries granting the candidate status to Ukraine said that it motivates the army and society to fight for its independence and expressed it will be a “positive transition.” He said: “It is a great motivator for unification, and therefore a great motivator for Ukraine's victory.”

Ukraine reported that its defenders fighting in the eastern Donbas are facing extreme conditions where 568 civilians are reported to be cornered in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The forces in the southern operational command claimed on launching air strikes on Zmiinyi Island, which was observed to have caused major losses for Russian forces.

A video has been released from Russia showing an explosion in one of its oil refineries. It accused Ukraine of using a UAV to strike the oil refinery in Rostov. Ukraine countered by saying it uses only drones and not UAVs at any point in the war.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, appreciated Italy’s support to Ukraine in terms of defence, and politics. He said: “We are grateful for the weapons and the loud voice in support of granting Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership. But please understand: this is not a charity, but an investment in your own security, in our common peace, in our common free future.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 22 June, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky reported that Russia will begin collecting evidence on Ukraine’s armed forces' use of 155 millimetre “artillery system,” which is used by NATO members. He said: “Indeed, [the Ukrainian military] is using 155 mm munitions and if necessary, it won’t be a problem to collect evidence proving that shelling attacks on civilian areas involve such weapons. I think that we will do it, Russia will do it.”

Russia warned Lithuania over its ban on the transfer of goods close to 50 per cent through the railway to Kaliningrad. One of the spokespersons said: “will certainly respond to such hostile actions.” Kaliningrad being an important region for Russia’s Baltic force depends majorly on the EU’s raw materials and spare parts.

Russia’s National Defense Management Center, chief Mikhail Mizintsev reported on receiving 50 “evacuation requests” from people living in Ukraine to be evacuated into Russia. He added that in total there have been 2,758,447 similar requests mainly coming from territories under Ukraine, Kyiv, and Donbas. Apart from this, he claimed on Ukraine staging weapons and defence forces near Odesa, Avdeyevka, and Slavyansk hospital facilities. Upon which all the patients were sent out of the med facility due to weapon deployment.

The DPR mission to the Joint Center for Control and Coordination, in a report, said that Ukraine had used “42 NATO-standard 155 mm shells” to carry out attacks in the Donetsk region. In total nine attacks were observed to be launched in three rounds.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

Turkey’s weapon production representative said that Turkey must be cautious in sending the weapons to Ukraine as it is important for Kyiv’s defence. The military delegation of Turkey is expected to travel to Russia to talk about establishing a safe sea corridor in the Black Sea area to facilitate Ukraine's grain export.

On 22 June, the UK’s defence ministry reported that in the coming days the chances for Russia to assemble more reserves on the front lines, especially in Donbas was increasing.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 22 June, the IEA warned Europe that Russia will soon be stopping its gas supply to Europe. The head of IEA, Fatih Birol expressed the need for a contingency plan for Europe. He expects the reduction to cause problems in Europe’s gas storage, giving leverage to Russia in the coming winter. It is observed that the gas imports have scaled down from 40 per cent to 20 per cent. On the same many EU states from France, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, and the Netherlands have confirmed the stoppage of gas supply from Russia. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo is scheduled to visit Ukraine and Russia in the coming week to discuss on finding peaceful ways to resolve the conflict.

References
Jonah Fisher, “Europe told to prepare for Russia turning off gas,” BBC, 22 June 2022
Kaliningrad: Russia warns Lithuania of consequences over rail transit blockade,” BBC, 22 June 2022
55 evacuation requests received from Ukraine in past day — defense ministry,” TASS, 22 June 2022
Ukrainian troops fire 42 NATO-standard shells at Donetsk in one hour,” TASS, 22 June 2022
Ukrainian military deploys weapons to medical facilities in Odessa, Avdeyevka, Slavyansk,” TASS, 22 June 2022
Russia to collect evidence of Ukraine’s use of 155 mm weapons — deputy envoy to UN,” TASS, 22 June 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 119 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022
EU candidate status will be a new page in the history of Ukraine and a great motivation for the army and society - President during communication with students,” President of Ukraine, 22 June 2022
Italy's defense and political support for Ukraine is an investment in our common free future - Andriy Yermak,” President of Ukraine, 22 June 202


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Macron rejects prime minister Borne’s resignation
On 21 June, president Emmanuel Macron of France rejected prime minister Elisabeth Borne's resignation offer. Borne, who was appointed by Macron, was said to stay on task and act with the existing cabinet that they had. Macron's ensemble coalition had fallen short of a majority by 44 seats in the national assembly election that was held last week. While the left coalition called NUPES has scored around 131 seats making it the second-largest party in the assembly. Macron is at an impasse as both the left and the right refuse to join hands with Macron. This can threaten the agendas that he had planned for his second five years term in the office. He is ready to have talks with other parties to make a deal but is being refused especially by Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the left coalition and the right-wing republican, Christian Jacob. Marine Le Pen may work with him if her proposal for the cost of living crisis is adopted. (”France elections: Macron rejects prime minister's offer to resign,” BBC News, 20 June 2022)

BULGARIA
Kiril Petkov’s administration falls after losing a no-confidence vote
On 22 June, the Kiril Petkov’s government lost the no-confidence vote in the parliament, making the country politically unstable amid surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. The opposition party overthrew the Petkov administration, who came into power only six months ago. If Petkov is unable to put together a majority for a new cabinet and if two other parties in parliament are unable to form a government, President Rumen Radev is obligated to call early elections within two months and install a caretaker administration. Its aspirations to join the euro in 2024 and millions of euros in EU recovery assistance are now in jeopardy as the country prepares for what might be its fourth general election since April 2021. (“Bulgaria’s pro-western government collapses after just six months,” the Guardian, 22 June 2022) 

ITALY
Di Maio leaves five-star movement due to a difference of opinion with its president
On 21 June, Italy's foreign minister, Luigi Di Maio withdrew from the 5-star movement following disagreements with the party's leader Giuseppe Conte. Di Maio said that Conte had been undermining Italy's decision to help Ukraine with weapons and supplies. He also said that he would create a new parliamentary group supporting the government of the Italian prime minister Mario Draghi. This incident could bring forth instability in Draghi's multiparty coalition. As a result of the split in the party, it could trigger a collapse of Draghi's government. Conte is considering pulling the movement out of the government. Political sources say that Di Maio's new parliamentary group would likely be named 'Together for the Future'. (“Italy: foreign minister leaves 5-Star to form new group backing PM,”  The Guardian, 21 June 2022)

THE UK
Maritime ministry funds projects for seafarer’s mental health
On 23 June, the maritime minister Robert Courts announced the allocation of EUR 2.75 million for projects to support seafarers’ mental wellbeing and the maritime sector at the Mersey maritime exchange in Liverpool. The funding is intended to help the marine industry develop a workforce that individuals from all backgrounds will want to join because it is highly trained and well supported. Furthermore, the sector has developed mental health awareness training that is provided to all new seafarers as a requirement of their training. This financing intends to promote seafarer rights by enhancing the execution of successful programmes. Courts also launched the Maritime recovery route map on the same day to assist the industry in recovering from the pandemic's impact. (“£2.4 million funding to support seafarers’ mental wellbeing,” The UK Government, 23 June 2022)

Bill of Rights proposed as a response to ECHR’s intervention
On 21 June, courts in the UK decided to ignore the European Court of Human Rights interim measures and proceeded with their new draft law, the Bill of Rights. This decision came as a result of ECHR meddled in the process of deportation of refugees to Rwanda. The ECHR stopped London's deportation flight to Rwanda. The new Bill of Rights would replace the existing Human Rights Act passed by the previous government. The UK's ministry of justice drafted a law on 22 June stating that the UK's courts are free from ECHR bind when it comes to human rights issues as the UK's supreme court would be the ultimate arbiter of it. The ECHR had intervened because of Rule 39 which applies to situations where there is an imminent threat of irreparable harm. This displeased the UK government and in response to that passed the new Bill of Rights. (Cristina Gallardo, “UK courts could ignore interim ECHR decisions under new human rights plan,” POLITICO, 21 June 2022) 

TURKEY
Prince Salman visits Ankara to normalize relations
On 22 June, the prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman visited Ankara to meet Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to normalization of relations and trade deals. As the most recent attempts to reintegrate Saudi Arabia into the international community following threats to isolate the country due to journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder, Prince Mohammed's visit to Ankara also signals a significant shift in Middle Eastern affairs. Erdogan stated: “God willing, we will have the opportunity to assess to what a much higher level we can take Turkey-Saudi Arabia relations.” (Ruth Michaelson, “Saudi crown prince visits Turkey as relations thaw after Khashoggi murder,” the Guardian, 22 June 2022)

REGIONAL
EU to introduce legally binding wildlife conservation targets to its members
On 22 June, a proposal to address the catastrophic loss of wildlife was introduced for the first time after 30 years in the EU. The bill would legally enforce objectives for all member states to restore wildlife on land, rivers, and the sea. Targets set forward by the European Commission include reversing the decrease of pollinator populations and restoring 20 per cent of land and sea by 2030, with the goal of restoring all ecosystems by 2050. The commission also suggested eliminating the use of chemical pesticides in the vicinity of playgrounds, hospitals, and schools by 2030. The commission's executive vice-president, Frans Timmermans stated that the measures are in the right direction in addressing the "looming ecocide" threatening the world. There will be about EUR 100 billion available for biodiversity-related projects, including ecosystem restoration. (Phoebe Weston and Patrick Greenfield, “EU plan to halve use of pesticides in ‘milestone’ legislation to restore ecosystems,” the Guardian, 22 June 2022)

Western Balkan states decide to attend the Brussels summit
On 22 June, the head of states of Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia decided to attend the EU-Western Balkans summit after threatening to boycott the same. Serbia and Albania were considering skipping the summit as a show of support for North Macedonia after Bulgaria vetoed the next stage in its road to EU membership. On Thursday morning, EU leaders are set to address the accession paths of Western Balkans countries at the summit, ahead of the European Council meeting which kicks off in the afternoon. Before the European Council meeting begins in the afternoon on 23 June, EU leaders are scheduled to discuss the accession pathways of the countries in the Western Balkans at the summit in the morning. (Camille Gijs, “Western Balkans leaders will attend EU summit, dropping boycott threats,” POLITICO, 22 June 2022)

ECJ restricts the usage of passenger data of flights
On 21 June, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) established boundaries for passenger data collection and when it can be used by authorities of the law. This court ruled against the use of artificial intelligence(AI), making it the first court to ban machine learning systems. According to the court, the usage of AI may cause direct or indirect discrimination. The ruling also focused on the highly scrutinized passenger data that is collected from those travelling to the bloc. It restricted the time limit of the passenger data that should be stored for less than six months and the handling of passenger data by the law enforcement of the EU member states. The court said that the authority's control over passenger data may come off as discriminatory to people who are travelling to or from Europe. The storage of passenger data should be done only if the person has fled a crime scene or is foreseen to commit a crime. (“EU court sets limits for use of passenger flight data,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022


22 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #234

French Parliamentary elections: Three issues | War in Ukraine: Day 118

Governments were sued by people against their membership in ECT; Global Media Forum discusses journalism amid the war in Ukraine

Photo : The Guardian


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

French Parliamentary elections: Three issues
On 19 June, French president Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition with a difference of 44 seats lost in the legislative elections. When compared to the other party’s the coalition secured the largest share with 245 seats, but to form a majority government it needs 289. President Macron will now face a challenge in meeting the demands of his opponents and winning the support of potential members of parliament from Republican, far-right, and left-wing parties.

Election results: The divided majority
France reformed the term of presidency from seven years to five years in 2002 and follows a tradition of conducting legislative elections weeks after presidential election. The elections are of national level in nature but organized by the local constituencies, the National Assembly contains 577 seats in total with 11 nationals outside France. Macron’s party previously held 350 staging the majority. The opponent parties, Nupes consisting of socialists, communists, radical left, and the greens from the left-wing secured second with 131 seats, and the far-right National Rally (RN) alliance parties came third with 89 seats. Apart from the above, the Les Republicans could gain only 64 which is low compared to previous years. The reason is low turnout from young and middle-income households.

Proposal and demands
Upon the election loss, Macron’s domestic reform agenda on addressing the cost of living, raising of pension age, and food vouchers will be put to test for Parliamentary approval. Most importantly the position of prime minister Elisabeth Borne is under threat as the Parliament can plan a no-confidence motion. To form the government, rebuild confidence and not let France slip into political chaos, Macron has to ensure meeting the demands of the opponent’s majority and push his reform agenda. Till now the key demands kept by left-green are lowering the retirement age from 62 to 60, increasing the minimum wages to 15 per cent, a freeze of the price of essential commodities, and creating more jobs.

Domestic and regional impact
At the domestic level, the power is set to shuffle between the presidency and parliament challenging the political stability and reform make. Although the word compromise and French parliament are far-off, it remains in Macron’s hands to negotiate with the other parties to form the majority government. On the other hand, if the left-wing alliance and far-right fail to cooperate in the process, it will lead to a political deadlock resulting in snap elections.
At the regional level, in line with the fear of the EU and member states which favoured Macron’s win will have to adapt to the new situation, where the far-right and hard left are rising. France might no longer be a spearhead to unite the member states to settle regional issues.

References
Tracy Mcnicoll, “Macron’s bloc falls short of absolute majority, leftist coalition second, large gains for far right,” France24, 19 June 2022
Paul Kirby, “France elections: Political uncertainty as Macron party slumps,” BBC, 20 June 2022
Paul Kirby, “French National Assembly vote decides battle between Macron and left,” BBC, 20 June 2022
French parliamentary election: What you need to know,” Deutsche Welle, 11 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 118
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 21 June, Luhansk region’s governor, Serhiy Gaidai said that Russia’s forces had captured more settlements near the twin cities of Sievierodonetsk, and Lysychansk. The regional governor of Kharkiv, Oleh Synegubov reported that 15 people were killed in the region because of Russian shelling. 

President Zelenskyy in his address to African Union leaders spoke about the growing global food crisis and mentioned the condition of Africa. He said that Africa will be one of the worst-hit countries if immediate corridors for the export of Ukraine’s grains are not restored. Russia has been holding Africa hostage over food shortage and rising prices of fuel, fertilizers, oil, and grains. Zelenskyy also met with the prime minister of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel, who was visiting Kyiv. He thanked Bettel for the assistance provided in terms of hosting Ukraine’s refugees and allocating 15 per cent of the national budget for Ukraine. 

On 21 June, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported that they have detained a senior official in the Secretariat of the Cabinet of Ministers and a department head at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. This was because they were suspected to be a part of a Russian spy network. The SBU said: “These officials passed on various intelligence information to the enemy: from the state of our defence capability to arrangements at the state border and personal data of Ukrainian law enforcement officers.”

The Russia-backed separatist region of Donetsk People’s Republic are now allowing foreigners to sign up for military service in DPR’s interior ministry troops. These contracts are valid for one year, but may therefore be extended. In the Luhansk People’s Republic, the Joint Control and Coordination Center said that Ukraine had fired Tochka-U missiles at the settlements of Zimogorye and Stakhanov.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

The Interfax news agency reported that the two men from the US, fighting for Ukraine, had been captured in the Donetsk People's Republic. They also showed video interviews of the pair. However, Kremlin said that they did not know the location of the “mercenaries”

On 21 June, the Chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mizintsev said that around 21,000 people have been evacuated from dangerous situations in Ukraine, especially from the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic.

Russia’s Dmitry Muratov had won the Nobel Peace Prize along with Maria Ressa of the Philippines, in 2021. The Nobel Prize committee had said that it was for their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, seen as a precondition of democracy and peace. Muratov recently auctioned his Nobel Medal for a record USD 103.5 million. The money will be given to UNICEF for the humanitarian aid for children from Ukraine who have been displaced.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 21 June, the US attorney general, Merrick Garland reiterated that they are committed to identifying, arresting, and prosecuting Russia’s soldiers with war crimes records. Garlan met with Ukraine’s prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova and announced a team to look into war crimes accountability. This new team will assist Ukraine with criminal prosecution, fact-finding, forensics of human rights abuse, war crimes, and other atrocities.

A military delegation from Turkey will go to Russia to discuss the export of Ukraine’s grains from the Black Sea. Ankara has so far spoken to Moscow and the UN, but final approval of the plan has to come after a four-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. This meeting is soon scheduled to be held in Istanbul. Top EU diplomats also met in Luxembourg and warned about the impending risk of famine. EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, referred to Russia’s blockade of ports and said that it was Russia that should be blamed for this global grain crisis.

On the same day, the self-propelled howitzers sent by Germany arrived in Ukraine. This marks the first delivery of heavy weapons promised by Berlin. The arrival of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 was announced by the Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov on social media. The head of Ukraine's president's office posted a list of all the other weapons that have been pledged by Germany; it includes 30 Gepard tanks and three MARS II multiple rocket launchers, and 500 shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.
Lithuania banned the transporting of any goods sanctioned by the EU from Russia to Kaliningrad through rail routes. This is a problem for Russia, as Kaliningrad holds Russia’s Baltic Sea Fleet and also the deployment-ready Iskander missiles. This move has naturally irked Russia, who warned that Lithuania will have to face a “serious negative impact.” Lithuania has also said that it will not be looking toward NATO for support if Russia threatens any military action against Lithuania.

Estonia summoned the Russian Ambassador over a possible airspace violation. A Russian MI8 came into Estonia’s airspace without permission and failed to respond to signals or transponders. This is the second time in less than two weeks that a similar event has occurred.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 21 June, the 19th meeting of Kazakhstan-EU Cooperation was conducted where Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdy discussed the ways in which they can avoid the spillover of the war in Ukraine in their country. Catherine Colonna, the foreign minister of France represented the European Union. Kazakhstan’s Minister mentioned that it was necessary to maintain the momentum of positive relations with the EU. They also spoke about how to prevent the influence EU sanctions imposed on Russia, on Kazakhstan’s companies.

References
Samantha Lockand Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 119 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022
Russian forces capture several more settlements in Ukraine's Luhansk region,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
At least 15 civilians killed in Kharkiv region by Russian shelling – governor,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
Ukraine president says Africa is a hostage in the war with Russia,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
“President of Ukraine met with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg in Kyiv,” President of Ukraine, 21 June 2022
Ukraine detains senior public figures suspected of spying for Russia,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
DPR allows foreigners to sign contracts for military service,” TASS, 21 June 2022
Ukrainian army fires Tochka-U missiles at two settlements in LPR,” TASS, 21 June 2022
Kremlin says it does not know location of captured U.S. 'mercenaries',” Reuters, 21 June 2022
Over 21,000 people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia in past day,” TASS, 21 June 2022
Lidia Kelly, “Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize fetches record $103.5 million at auction to aid Ukraine children,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
Sarah N. Lynch and Katharine Jackson, “U.S. attorney general vows to help track down, prosecute Russian war criminals,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
Turkish team to discuss Black Sea grain corridor in Russia this week –sources,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
Bernd Riegert, “EU tries to get grain from Ukraine as Russia's war drags on,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022
First heavy weapons from Germany arrive in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Moscow fumes over Lithuania rail ban to Russian region,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
Janis Laizans , “Lithuanians near Kaliningrad put faith in NATO after Russia's threats,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
David Ljunggren, “Estonia protests to Russia over airspace violation as Baltic tensions rise,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
Kazakhstan, EU discuss preventing spillover effect of sanctions on Russia,” TASS, 21 June 2022
Monir Ghaedi, “Fighting a 'battle between democracy and authoritarianism',” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

REGIONAL
Five individuals to sue their governments at human rights court 
On 21 June, five individuals affected by floods, forest fires, and hurricanes caused by climate change filed a case to the European court of human rights (ECHR) against their government’s membership in the energy charter treaty (ECT). The claimants are suing 12 ECHR member states, including France, Germany, and the UK who have actively used the ECT. The claimants say that participation in the ECT infringes the European Convention on Human Rights' rights to life and to respect for private and family life. The treaty, which has about 55 members, including the UK, Japan, and EU states, has been seen as a serious threat to the Paris Agreement because it could allow firms to sue governments for compensation for the early closure of coal, oil, and gas plants worth an estimated EUR 1.3 trillion until 2050. (Jennifer Rankin and Arthur Neslen “Young people go to European court to stop treaty that aids fossil fuel investors,” The Guardian, 21 June 2022)

Panel at Global Media Forum discusses Russian propaganda amid the war in Ukraine
On 21 June, a panel discussion in the 2022 Global Media Forum organized by Deutsche Well at its headquarters in Bonn discussed how the conflict in Ukraine has deepened divisiveness and tensions that put democracy and free speech in jeopardy. The panelist was the exiled journalist from Russia, and Ukraine, the German culture and media commissioner, and the EU transparency and values commissioner. Zygar stated that the Kremlin's crackdown on independent journalists had, within a decade, aided the dissemination of misinformation and divided political debate, making it simple for the state to isolate and suppress critical voices. Further, Jourova called for stricter measures for regulating big tech firms as they now make money by spreading false information. (Monir Ghaedi, “Fighting a 'battle between democracy and authoritarianism’,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022) 

Europe consumes an increased amount of cooking oil for vehicles amid rising prices
On 22 June, the Guardian reported that Europe and the UK are consuming 17,000 tons of cooking oil to run vehicles every day. According to the study, palm and soy oil, largely from South America and Indonesia, is also burnt for fuel at a rate of additional 14 million bottles every day. Despite the fact that their effects on the environment may be much worse than those of fossil fuels, 58 percent of the rapeseed oil and nine per cent of the sunflower oil consumed in Europe between 2015 and 2019 were burned in vehicles and trucks. Another study released by the Green Alliance on 20 June found that an additional 3.5 million people could be fed each year if the land used to produce the UK's bioethanol were instead allocated to food crops. This would reduce the impact of global undernourishment brought on by the conflict in Ukraine by 25-40 per cent. (Arthur Nelson, “Europe and UK pour 17,000 tons of cooking oil into vehicles a day,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
New WTO deal to limit overfishing hailed despite flaws 
On 21 June, conservationists hailed the recent World Trade Organization’s (WTO) agreement to end subsidies that cause overfishing after 20 years of failed negotiations. Despite being scaled down from its original objectives, Pew Charitable Trusts, which has long advocated for the elimination of such subsidies, said the new agreement represented a turning point in eliminating a major cause of overfishing. The agreement establishes a worldwide framework that restricts financial support for high seas fishing, overfished populations, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. It lays the groundwork to incorporate other subsidies by including steps to increase openness and accountability for governments over how they subsidize the sector. However, the agreement does not prohibit the use of public funds by governments to subsidize either operating expenses, such as gasoline, or capital expenditures, such as the modernization and replacement of fishing fleets' engines. These increase overfishing, favor bigger vessels, and artificially lower operational costs for the fishing sector. (Karen McVeigh, “First WTO deal on fishing subsidies hailed as historic despite 'big holes'The Guardian, 21 June 2022)


21 June 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #233

War in Ukraine: Day 117

A historical railway strike was planned in the UK; the Incumbent Bulgarian prime minister faced a no-confidence vote; the Military Roman Temple complex was discovered in the Netherlands

Photo : Kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 117
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

War On The Ground
On 20 June, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a reason for the increasing food prices on the African continent. Addressing the Bureau of the Assembly of the African Union, he said: “(I) address you in a state of emergency, when we have a war. In an emergency for the whole world, when Africa is actually taken hostage. Hostage of those who started the war against our state.” 

Zelenskyy further mentioned that Russia will soon intensify its attacks on Ukraine and other European countries. He suggested preparing for the hostile activities as the EU’s commission had proposed Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership. 

On the same day, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk urged the people in the Kherson oblast to leave the city. This comes as 165 out of 350 humanitarian corridors had failed due to violations by Russia. She further mentioned how Russia was holding 1.2 million citizens of Ukraine and that more than 1,500 were being held in Russian prisons. 

Also, on 20 June, Ukraine’s troops stated that Russian forces would reach the Luhansk borders by Sunday. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, mentioned that Moscow had gathered all its troops and was preparing to storm the settlements near the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk. 

On 20 June, Ukraine’s military claimed that Russia targeted and destroyed a food warehouse in the city of Odesa. Ukraine said Russia was attacking warehouses as they did not successfully target Kyiv’s troops. 

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia

On 20 June, according to Crimea’s leader Sergey Aksyonov, Ukraine’s forces delivered three strikes on the Chernomorneftegaz drilling rigs in the Black Sea. He stated that the three strikes were on the natural gas rigs, and wounded several people. 

On the same day, the governor of the Suzemka settlement in the Bryansk Region said that the shelling by Ukraine’s forces had caused a power outage. Governor Alexander Bogomaz also stated that a person was injured, but the enemy’s attacking fronts were suppressed. 

Also, on 20 June, Russia warned Lithuania as Vilnius banned the transit of goods across its borders to its Kaliningrad enclave. Lithuania cited EU sanctions rules for blocking the movement of goods sanctioned by the bloc. Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said: "This decision is really unprecedented. It’s a violation of everything.” Russia also accused the G20 members of politicizing a meeting on global health. Russia claimed that the G20 accused Moscow’s invasion as the reason for Ukraine’s healthcare system plunging into chaos. 

On the same day, the Kremlin announced that the two US mercenaries were not covered by the Geneva convention. Peskov added that they would face responsibility for their actions. On the other hand, Russia’s Nobel peace prize-winning journalist Dmitry Muratov sold his peace prize for USD 103.5 million. He pledged the money to aid the children displaced by the war in Ukraine. 

On 20 June, the chair of the Russian security council, Dmitry Medvedev, said there was no point in having nuclear arms reductions talks with the US as Washington was no longer on the Kelvin scale. But, he added: “Let them run or crawl back themselves and ask for it.” 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 20 June, Germany mentioned that it was confident that Sweden and Finland would be able to reach an agreement with NATO for their membership bids. However, the government mentioned that even if the two countries did not get their membership in this summit in Madrid, it would not be a “catastrophe.”

On the same day, the EU’s diplomat accused Russia of committing a war crime by blocking Ukraine’s grain exports. This comes as the EU was planning on ways to free up the grain blockade and export the crop to avoid a global food crisis. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell added: “One cannot imagine that millions of tonnes of wheat remain blocked in Ukraine while in the rest of the world people are suffering hunger…This is a real war crime.” 

The EU has also been discussing the next wave of sanctions on Russia and additional military support to Ukraine. The subject of sanctions was likely discussed at the EU envoy meeting as it was not mentioned in the conclusions of the EU summit. However, Germany has asked the bloc not to impose new complex sanctions but rather focus on the effectiveness of the existing sanctions. 

Also, on 20 June, Turkey said it had not accepted next week’s NATO summit as the final deadline for resolving its objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey’s presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said: “The existence of terrorist organizations must end in those countries. That is what we expect both from Finland and Sweden.” 

On 20 June, the UK said it had banned Russia’s ambassador to the country Andrey Kelin “until further notice.” A note to the parliamentarians stated: “As the formally accredited representative of the Russian government, the ambassador will not be welcomed onto the parliamentary estate until further notice.” The UK’s former director of the special forces also mentioned that the UK must prepare for a possible war. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine War

On 20 June, a court in Moscow rejected an appeal by Meta Platforms Inc as it was found guilty of being involved in “extremist activity” in March. Russia had restricted access to social media platforms to control the flow of false information after 24 February. The state’s communication regulator Roskomnadzor has also been cracking down on platforms that fail to comply with Moscow’s guidelines. 

On the same day, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries stated that they would be focusing on the war in Ukraine and the potential sanctions against Russia in the upcoming summit. The leaders would also be planning on Ukraine’s reconstruction laying out medium and long-term goals. 

Also, on 20 June, on the occasion of World Refugee Day, actor and director Ben Stiller visited Ukraine and extended his support. He was there on behalf of the UNHRC as a goodwill ambassador.

On the same day, Australia said it delivered the first four armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Australia had promised Ukraine 14 carriers as a part of their USD 285 million aid package. Former defense minister Peter Dutton had also promised 20 additional Bushmaster-protected infantry vehicles. 

References
Russia 'orders troops to reach Luhansk borders by Sunday', says Ukraine,” The Guardian live, 20 June 2022
Ukraine president says Africa "hostage" in war with Russia,” Reuters, 20 June 2022
Ukraine delivers three strikes at Black Sea drilling rigs, Crimean leader reports,” TASS, 20 June 2022 
One person injured in Ukrainian shelling of Suzemka, Bryansk Region — governor,” TASS, 20 June 2022
Russia warns NATO-member Lithuania over Kaliningrad transit,” Reuters, 20 June 2022
Natalia Zinets and Oleksandr Kozhukhar, “Zelenskiy defiant as Russia intensifies attacks on eastern cities, seizes territory,” TASS, 20 June 2022
Former Russian president and now deputy chair of the Russian security council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Moscow should wait until Americans “crawl back” and beg to hold nuclear arms reduction talks,” The Guardian live, 20 June 2022
Lidia Kelly, “Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize fetches record $103.5 mln at auction to aid Ukraine children,’’ Reuters, 20 June 2022
Germany "very confident" of deal on Sweden, Finland NATO bid - goverment source,” Reuters, 20 June 2022
Turkey said it does not consider next week’s Nato summit as a final deadline for resolving its objections to Finland and Sweden joining the military alliance,” The Guardian live, 20 June 2022
Sabine Siebold and Charlotte Van Campenhout, “EU's top diplomat calls Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain a war crime,” Reuters, 20 June 2022
Francesco Guarascio and Jan Strupczewski, “EU nations push for new Russia sanctions, more military aid to Ukraine,” Reuters, 20 June 2022
Meta loses appeal in Russian court over 'extremist activity' tag -TASS,” TASS, 20 June 2022
G7 summit to focus on Russia sanctions, Ukraine reconstruction - German source,” Reuters, 20 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

BULGARIA
Petkov to face a no-confidence vote after only six months in office
On 21 June, the prime minister of Bulgaria Kiril Petkov’s cabinet is expected to lose a no-confidence vote to depose a government that promised to clean up the corruption. Petkov has just been in office for six months by forming a four-party coalition in December after a chaotic year of three general elections. With the likelihood of holding its fourth parliamentary election in April 2021, the Balkan nation of 7 million people appears to be heading for even more political turbulence. This might put the country's chances of entering the eurozone in 2024 in jeopardy. Petkov's government also attempted to arrest former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov in connection with a high-profile bribery case, demonstrating its commitment to fighting corruption. (Boryana Dzhambazova, “Bulgaria's government faces collapse this week,” POLITICO, 20 June 2022)

NORTHERN IRELAND
Belfast Harbour recover port activities after pandemic
On 20 June, Belfast harbour was able to bounce back to the pre-Covid levels from the economic hit it suffered due to the pandemic. Turnover increased by 17 per cent up to GBP 73.3 million compared to the previous year and operating profits went up by 13 per cent up to GBP 34 million. The port had been hit by lockdown restrictions and related supply chain problems. But it recovered from the pandemic lul and the trade volumes even reached record levels in 2021. Even the ferry passenger journeys such as cruise ships had 70 visits to the harbour in 2021 when compared to just one in 2020. Post-Brexit, the Northern Ireland port has picked up a lot of trading activities with Great Britain. (John Campbell, "Belfast Harbour records financial performance bounce back,” BBC News, 20 June 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
Roman temple complex unearthed in the Netherlands
On 20 June, archaeologists unearthed a Roman temple complex in the Netherlands. This discovery was a bit unusual as there had been no sites that were uncovered that showed the proof of the northern border of the Roman Empire. The temple complex was found in a clay extraction site in the village of Herwen-Hemeling, located near the border of Germany. The remains of two temples mainly used by soldiers from the Roman era date back more than 2000 years ago. Several small stone altars were used by the soldiers dedicated to various gods and goddesses and were discovered with inscriptions on them. This archaeological discovery is unique as this was the first intact whole temple complex to be unearthed in the Netherlands. The usage of roof tiles suggests that the complex was used by the military and also tips of spears and lances, as well as a few other military equipment were found nearby. (Rebecca Staudenmaier, "Dutch researchers uncover Roman temple complex,” Deutsche Welle, 20 June 2022)

THE UK
Eight promised wildlife bills were delayed by the government
On 20 June, the Boris administration was accused of failing to deliver his promised eight wildlife bills. The government has been accused of breaking promises by failing to implement measures on environmentally friendly farming, peat and pesticide usage, returning beavers and other endangered animals, and conserving rare marine life. There are worries that the prime minister's desire to improve England's biodiversity has been lost as his power has diminished and he has been forced to listen to the right-wing of the Conservative party, which considers green initiatives to be too expensive. (Helena Horton, “Fears for wildlife as Boris Johnson accused of failing to keep policy pledges,” The Guardian, 20 June 2022)

Five British nationals released from Afghanistan
On 20 June, five British citizens who were taken into custody by the Taliban were released from Afghanistan. Although the UK did not release the names of the five people, one was confirmed to be the former BBC cameraman Peter Jouvenal. He was arrested last year and was detained for unspecified reasons. He had been running a hostel service in Kabul, as well as working for the BBC in Afghanistan before he was arrested by the Taliban. In a statement released by the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office(FCDO), they said that the five Britons had no connection with the UK government's work in Afghanistan and apologized for any breach in Afghan culture, customs and law. The family and relatives of the British nationals who were detained thanked the FCDO for working tirelessly for their release. (Joseph Lee, "Five Britons released after arrest by Taliban,” BBC News, 20 June 2022)

Largest railway strike planned after failed negotiations
On 21 June, thousands of Network Rail staff and 13 rail operators are expected to walk out, disrupting major routes. The National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT), which represents rail employees ranging from caterers to signallers, is demanding a salary increase of at least seven per cent. Employers have only given two per cent, with the option of one per cent more, on the condition that workers accept projected job losses and changes in working procedures. After negotiations between rail operators and the RMT union failed, the rail strikes are expected to cancel roughly 80 per cent of train services, with more strikes planned for 23 and 24 June. (Joseph Lee, “Rail strikes: Biggest strike in 30 years to go ahead as talks fail,” BBC, 21 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
A whistleblower of Meta plans to start her own watchdog agency on big-techs
On 16 June, Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen is to raise USD five million to start a nonprofit organization to keep a watch on these big-tech social media platforms and increase their accountability. In 2021, Haugen leaked numerous internal business documents exposing how senior executives and engineers play around with the dissemination of harmful content online. Haugen wants to reveal a number of potentially dangerous activities that were made public as a result of her revelations to the US government and international media houses. Facebook's parent company, Meta, denies that it prioritizes its own financial benefit over the well-being of its billions of users worldwide. Ultimately, Haugen wants to create a "simulated social network," an artificial platform where regulators, researchers, and others may play out prospective situations and learn more about how such platforms work without having to beg, borrow, or steal access from real firms. (“Frances Haugen: From whistleblower to watchdog,” Mark Scott, POLITICO, 16 June 2022)

 


20 June 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #232

War in Ukraine: Day 115 & 116

NUPES to become the major opposition party in France; Several wildfires erupt in west Europe, People’s party win majority in Andalucia

Photo : Mosa'ab Elshamy/AP Photo/POLITICO


War in Ukraine: Day 115 & 116
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 18 June, Luhansk region’s governor, Serhiy Gaidai said that Russia was sending many reserve troops to Sievierodonetsk from other fronts. He said, it was to gain full control of the city.

On the same day, several other parts of eastern Ukraine saw strikes by Russia’s forces. Kharkiv region’s governor, Oleh Synehubov reported that a large fire had broken out as a result of Russian missiles hitting a gasworks in the Izium district. He added that some other buildings in the vicinity have also been damaged. The head of the regional administration in Novomoskovsk said that a fuel storage department had been hit by Russian missiles too.

Authorities from the Donetsk People’s Republic said that five civilians had been killed by Ukraine’s strikes in the region. 12 others have been injured, as per the announcement made on Telegram. An official in the separatist Luhansk People’s Republic, Rodion Miroshnik reported a huge explosion near Sievierodentsk. He also posted a video of the resultant cloud on his Telegram channel.

In the Zasyadko coal mine in the Donetsk region, 77 miners working had been trapped underground after the territory was shelled following a power outage. However, Reuters reported that they have finally been rescued and no one has been reported injured.

On 18 June, the First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska gave an interview to The Guardian. She spoke about the crises that families in Ukraine are having to go through due to the war. She also elaborated on an initiative that she has launched to get the citizens of Ukraine the psychological support they need. When asked about the initiative, she said: “Ukrainians are not used to seeking help from psychologists. We tend to ignore depression or anxiety. But now we all need to reconsider these stereotypes. And it will take a big information campaign to prove to people that it is not their fault that they need psychological help now. It is necessary to apply for it and there is a place to apply to.”

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that he had visited the frontlines in the Mykolaive region. He gathered intelligence about the on-ground situation and spoke to the soldiers deployed there.

On 19 June, Zelenskyy said that after the European Commission’s support for Ukraine’s EU membership application, he had expected Russia to intensify its attacks. In his nightly address, he said: "Obviously, this week we should expect from Russia an intensification of its hostile activities… And not only against Ukraine but also against other European countries. We are preparing. We are ready. We warn partners.”

Amidst the increasing presence of Russian troops in Sievierodonestsk, Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian narrative that they control the entire city is incorrect. Even though Russia does control the main part, the whole city is not yet under their control.

On 19 June, Ukraine’s parliament voted through two laws. These laws will severely restrict Russian books and music. They will ban the commercial import of books printed in Russia and will also forbid the printing of books by Russian citizens. Playing of music by post-1991 Russian citizens on media or public transport will also be prohibited. This is the latest in a string of attempts to cut cultural ties between the countries.

 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 19 June, TASS reported on the transfer of surrendered commanders and Ukrainian troops to the detention center in Russia.
It includes the deputy commander of the Azov battalion and commander of “36 Marine Brigade,” and close to 1000 Ukrainian troops from the Azovstal factory. The Russian defence ministry recently claimed 2439 Ukrainian troops and members of the Azov battalion to have surrendered their arms.

On 18 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin in the meeting with the president of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik highlighted the difficulty in conducting the relations and assured the continuity and developments in their relationship.

On 18 June, Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson major general Igor Konashenkov said that Russia has hit 62 Ukraine’s military clusters, M777 howitzers, Mi-24 helicopters, troops, vehicles including three-arm garages, and Su-25 plane. According to general Igor: “Tactical and army aircraft struck 62 clusters of Ukrainian troops and military equipment. As a result of the air strikes three ammunition depots in the districts of Tsapovka, Kharkiv Region, and Lysychansk, Lugansk People's Republic, were destroyed.” Along with this he also reported on attacks on eight UAVs, Bayraktar unmanned assault aerial vehicle in the Luhansk and Kherson region.

Russia’s National Defence Management Centre, the chief reported on evacuation of 29,000 people from risk-prone areas of Ukraine and Donbas. According to the chief, out of the total count, 3,502 were children by 18 June, and on the total count since the invasion, 1,936,911 people have been recorded to be moved into Russia.

 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 19 June, EU’s foreign ministers scheduled a meeting for 20 June to discuss the possibility of freeing the grain stuck in Ukraine. Ukraine has had more than 20 million tonnes of wheat stuck in its silos since Russia invaded. Thus, Ukraine has been working with the UN to broker a deal and resume wheat exports from Ukraine and food and fertilizer exports from Russia. 
 
On the same day, the UK announced a change in visa rules for minors coming from Ukraine. Under the new rule, children and teenagers could enter the UK as it was prohibited earlier. The minors would not need to enter with a parent or guardian and could seek refuge directly. During his visit, prime minister Boris Johnson mentioned that the UK could not send its troops as support, but the country would continue aiding it for “the long haul.” He added: “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underlines our core purpose – to protect the UK by being ready to fight and win wars on land.”
 
Also, on 19 June, Italy’s foreign minister Luigi Di Maio accused his own party of undermining government efforts in supporting Ukraine. Italy has been supplying arms to Ukraine to help it against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Italy’s energy company Eni announced joining with Qatar Energy to expand its productions as Russia reduced its supplies to Italy. 
 
On 19 June, Germany stated that it plans on adopting measures to ensure a continuous supply of energy for its needs. This comes as Russia has dropped its gas supply, and Berlin had to resort to coal to compensate for the drop in supply. The economy minister suggested using coal power plants to replace gas as a medium of generating electricity. 
 
On the same day, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that the war in Ukraine could continue “for years.” Nevertheless, he added: “We must not weaken in our support of Ukraine, even if the costs are high - not only in terms of military support but also because of rising energy and food prices.” He further mentioned how modern weapons would also increase Kyiv’s possibility of weakening Russia’s control of the Donbas region. 
 
On 18 June, the Pentagon's defense technology security administration paused the US’ plans of selling four-armed drones to Ukraine. The White House approved the plan; but, objections were raised due to concerns about equipment falling into enemy hands. Instead, the military might swap the current sensor package and radar for less sophisticated tech, but that would still take months to complete. The Pentagon also said it was keen on sending four more rocket launchers to Kyiv as a part of their aid package. This would help Ukraine tackle Russian forces in long-range artillery attacks.  
 
On the same day, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of continuing communication with Putin. He added: “It is absolutely necessary to speak to Putin, and I will continue to do so – as the French president will also.” He further mentioned that communication must continue to help things return to normalcy. 
 
Also, on 18 June, the UK’s prime minister reassured Zelenskyy that London would continue to give Kyiv’ strategic endurance’ to help it defend against Russia. He further mentioned that the UK would work towards freeing up the grain that is being held hostage by Putin. 
 
On 18 June, member of Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency Milorad Dodik met with Putin. The two leaders discussed the war in Ukraine and its spillover on bilateral relations. Russia claimed that the complications were also because of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s support of sanctions. 

 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 June, it was reported that India’s coal purchases from Russia, have in the last few weeks. This might be because traders are offering up to 30 per cent of discounts. It was also reported by Reuters after reviewing unpublished government data that from last year, India’s oil purchases from Russia have jumped more than 31-fold to USD 2.2 billion in the last 20 days.
Morocco’s national human rights body, the National Council of Human Rights requested Russia’s authorities to ensure that there is a ‘fair trail’ for the Morrocan citizen. The citizen was sentenced to death by a court in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The president of the council, Amina Bouayach contacted the high commissioner for human rights in the Russian Federation to reiterate the matter.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees said that due to the Ukraine war, there has been an outpouring of support for refugees in Europe. The commission is hopeful that this might shift the attitude with which Europe views refugees as a community. the UN refugee agency's assistant high commissioner, Gillian Triggs, said: "Before Ukraine, Europe was definitely not prepared for this… It was preparing to resist any increase in numbers ... I imagine there will be a rethinking what the future will look like. They must plan for a continued movement of people, particularly in relation to climate."

References
Samantha Lock and Maya Yang, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 117 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 20 June 2022
Maya Yang, Tom Ambrose and Zaina Alibhai, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 116 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 19 June 2022
In an interview with The Guardian, Olena Zelenska spoke about the situation of Ukrainian families during the war,” President of Ukraine, 18 June 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the frontline positions of the Ukrainian troops in the Mykolaiv region and awarded the defenders,” President of Ukraine, 18 June 2022
Meeting with member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik,” Kremlin.ru, 18 June 2022
Russia says its aircraft hit 62 Ukrainian military clusters, destroyed three arms depots,” TASS, 18 June 2022
Over 29,000 evacuated from Ukraine, Donbass to Russia in past day - Defense Ministry,” TASS, 18 June 2022
Russia says its aerospace forces struck four M777 howitzer platoons provided by West,” TASS, 18 June 2022
EU foreign minister to discuss how to free grain stuck in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
UK ministers will change visa rules and now allow unaccompanied Ukrainian minors to enter the UK, The Times reports,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
Italian foreign minister Luigi Di Maio on Sunday accused his own Five Star Movement party of undermining government efforts to support Ukraine and Rome’s international reputation,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
Italian company Eni has joined Qatar Energy’s $28.75bn (£23.5bn) project to expand production – just days after Russia reduced gas supplies to Italy,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
The UK military must be prepared to “fight in Europe once again”, the new head of the British army has said,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
Germany will adopt emergency measures to ensure its energy needs are met after the drop in supply of Russian gas, including increased use of coal, the government said Sunday,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
War in Ukraine could last for years, Nato chief says,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
The Biden administration’s plan to sell four large, armable drones to Ukraine has been paused on the fear its sophisticated surveillance equipment might fall into enemy hands, according to two people familiar with the matter,” The Guardian Live, 18 June 2022 
U.S. officials weigh doubling the number of rocket launchers sent to Ukraine,” POLITICO, 19 June 2022 
German chancellor Olaf Scholz said that it is “absolutely necessary” for leaders to speak directly with Russian president Vladimir Putin in attempts to end the war,” The Guardian Live, 18 June 2022
UK prime minister promises to give Ukraine 'strategic endurance' to prevail against Russia,” The Guardian Live, 18 June 2022
Meeting with Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency Milorad Dodik,” Kremlin.ru, 18 June 2022
Missiles hit gasworks in eastern Ukraine, regional governor says,” Reuters, 18 June 2022
Miners rescued after being trapped underground in east Ukraine, local officials say,” Reuters, 18 June 2022
Sudarshan Varadhan and Aftab Ahmed, “Exclusive: India's Russian coal purchases spike despite sanctions,” Reuters, 18 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

BELGIUM
Brussels to formally return remains of assassinated Congo leader in 1961
On 20 June, the Belgium government will officially return the first prime minister of Congo, Patrice Lumumba’s remains to his family at a ceremony in Brussels. Daughter of Lumumba, Juliana Lumumba stated that while the tooth is merely a human part, it also represents a terrible moment in the history of  Congo, its former colony; a period that Belgium is still struggling to unravel and understand its dark colonial past. Patrice Lumumba’s democratic and communist values threatened the Belgian government’s interest in Congo during the Cold War. Lumumba was assassinated in January 1961 as a result of this concern. (“Priyanka Shankar, “Patrice Lumumba: Belgium to return remains of assassinated Congo leader,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022

FRANCE
NUPES to form the largest opposition party; National Assembly surpasses expectations in the parliamentary elections
On 19 June, the new left-wing coalition New Popular Union (NUPES) is on track to become the country's largest opposition party in parliament as it is expected to win 141 seats. The bloc is led by far-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon and consists of La France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Greens and the French Communist Party. The Rassemblement National party led by Marine Le Pen is expected to win 90 seats in the parliamentary elections as projected by the pollstor Ipsos surpassing previous projections. However, Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble failed to win an absolute majority, leaving him with no choice but to strike a compromise with the conservative Les Républicains (LR) to remain unrestricted in decision-making. (“French left's coalition gamble pays off in legislative elections but unity challenges loom, France24, 20 June 2022; “'A seismic event': Le Pen's party makes historic breakthrough in French parliament”, France24, 20 June 2022)

SPAIN
The Conservative party takes over Andalusia from the socialists
On 19 June, the conservative People's party won a majority in the regional election in Andalusia. The party got fifty-eight seats in the election, three more than the required seats for the majority. The socialist party, which is in power nationally, lost its prominence in Andalusia in this election as the right-wing parties are overtaking it. It is predicted the same result in next year's national election. For the national election, the People's party is set to join hands with the far-right Vox party although it won the regional election without any help. Juanma Moreno, the People's Party leader in Andalusia called on voters to allow him to govern solitarily. (Ashifa Kassam, “Spain: conservative People's party wins unprecedented majority in Andalucía,” The Guardian, 19 June 2022)

TURKEY
Women’s activist group awaits courts verdict on unlawful withdrawal from Istanbul Convention
On 19 June, Women's rights organizations are eagerly following two court verdicts in Turkey concerning a femicide case and the legitimacy of the country's departure from a fundamental accord against gender-based violence. The long-awaited verdict on Pinar Gultekin's assassination comes the same week that Turkey's highest administrative court, the Council of State, is expected to issue its final decision on Ankara’s withdrawal from the Council of Europe convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence, also known as the Istanbul Convention. Some members of Turkey's conservative government have described the Istanbul Convention as a "trap" that will lead to the destruction of the traditional family. In May 2021, Erdogan issued a presidential decree withdrawing Turkey from the Istanbul Convention, prompting legal challenges from women's rights groups. Lawyer of the Women's Platform for Equality, Goceicek Ayata stated that Turkey may only abrogate the convention by legislative action. (Buru Karakas, “Turkey's femicide problem: All eyes on court verdicts,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022)

REGIONAL
Early heatwaves spark wildfires in part of West Europe
On 18 June, temperatures in a number of Western European countries surpassed 40 degrees Celsius, setting new records for the time of year. The European Commission’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service stated that the risk of forest fires was extremely high in parts of Spain, France, and Italy. On 19 June, in Berlin, firefighters had to evacuate about 20 villages as the forest fires spread rapidly. On the same day a wildfire in central Evia, Greece's second-largest island, raged uncontrollably. As a precaution, authorities ordered the evacuation of the village of Kremastos when the fire came as near as 800 meters to certain residences. (“Europe's June heat wave sparks wildfires warning.” Deutsche Welle, 18 June 2022; “Wildfires force Germany, Greece and Spain to evacuate residents,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022)

Turkey is called upon to limit the influx of refugees to Cyprus
On 18 June, the vice president of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas urged Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot administration to control the migrant influx in Cyprus during his visit to the island's capital Nicosia. His call comes following the number of asylum seekers landing in Cyprus has risen dramatically, with the majority arriving in the island's separatist northern half. According to the Cypriot administration, 90 per cent of migrants enter the country via Turkey and the separatist Turkish Cypriot north, where a loosely controlled student visa system is in place. The UN buffer zone is then crossed by tens of thousands of refugees seeking shelter in the Greek Cypriot south. Interior Minister Nicos Nouris said Nicosia was working with Brussels to speed up the repatriation of rejected asylum seekers, however, a new migrant-receiving facility would require additional EU funds. (“Cyprus: EU urges Turkish north to help cut migrant arrivals,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022)

 


18 June 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #231

Poland and the EU’s COVID-19 aid impasse ends | War in Ukraine: Day 114

Outdoor events prohibited in Europe due to heatwaves; Memorial at Berlin for East Germany revolt of 1953; NATO’s Balkan battalion replaced for ethical violations

Photo : AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk/The Washington Post


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

Poland and the EU’s COVID-19 aid impasse ends

Judicial reforms accepted by Poland
The issue between Poland and the EU's COVID-19 package began in November 2020, when Warsaw and Budapest blocked the Union's economic recovery plan. Poland and Hungary were skeptical of the EU's intervention in its member states' media and judiciary systems. The two countries later accepted the EUR 672.5 billion economic plan that would benefit the EU’s member states.  

On 14 June, Warsaw accepted a new accountability panel replacing the controversial body that disciplined judges. This comes as the EU's commission conditionally accepted Poland's pandemic recovery plan that would disburse EUR 36 billion to Warsaw. Under the plan, Poland has accepted to get away with its "disciplinary chamber" for judges and has accepted their cases to be heard by courts that are compliant with the EU's law. In addition, the new reforms make it easier for Poland's judges to ask the EU court of justice to rule on specific issues. This also comes as the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) fined Poland EUR one million per day since 27 October 2021 for maintaining a disciplinary chamber for judges. 

Poland, Hungary, and the EU triangle
The EU has accused Hungary and Poland of eroding their governance standards and has been troublesome to the bloc. The two countries wielded their veto rights whenever Poland or Hungary was subjected to disciplinary processes. An EU diplomat said: "The bond between [Poland and Hungary] has been a safety net for them, meaning they had no fear of being stuck in the Article 7 procedure and having to bear the consequences." 

However, the relations between the two countries have received setbacks due to the war in Ukraine. Since Hungary is greatly dependent on Russia for its energy needs, it has softened the EU's approach to energy sanctions against Moscow. On the other hand, Poland has been accommodating Ukraine's 3.5 million refugees and is playing an active role in the war, which has brought it under the favor of the EU. In contrast, Hungary's EUR 7.2 billion remains stuck as the EU withheld its funds because of corruption charges. 

Poland and the EU: Three issues ahead
First, the EU's push to reshape the Eastern Europe. The EU has been facing issues in uniting its Eastern most members to a uniform European identity based on similar norms and values. It faced issues with Ukraine refusing to sign its broad trade and security agreement. Thus, with Poland accepting EU’s judicial changes, it has revived the EU’s push for European unity in the East. Poland accepting a political compromise would set off Hungary to follow suit and eventually rest of EU’s eastern member states.

Second, resistance from the European parliament. The changes by Poland's president Andrzej Duda were mainly seen as superficial. The judge who had been highly critical of the government's actions was reinstated under the new policies but was appointed to a different court and was then sent on leave. This drew criticism from the centrist lawmakers in the European parliament. The lawmakers argued that Poland failed to address the issues at hand and that EU's conditions were premature. 
Third, spending the recovery funds. Poland would not receive the funds at once, as Warsaw would have to complete certain milestones described in its national plan. Thus, this would lead to occasional audits and transparency mechanisms that both Poland and the EU would have to work towards together. 

References: 
"Poland changes judiciary law; demands EU release COVID funds,' The Washington Post, 14 June 2022 
Francesco Guarascio, "EU fails to agree corporate tax reform as Hungary vetoes overhaul," Reuters, 17 June 2022 
Jack Arnholz, "EU in turmoil after Poland and Hungary block coronavirus relief plan," ABC News, 17 November 2020
"How can Poland spend its EU Covid recovery funds well?," Notes from Poland, 13 June 2022
"Hungary's Viktor Orbán loses friends in Poland over stance on Russia sanctions," Financial Times, 09 June 2022
"Poland must enact judicial reforms to receive Covid aid, says EU chief," France24, 2 June 2022
Stefan Auer and Nicole Scicluna, "The EU's future lies in its east," POLITICO, 15 June 2022


“It is special military operation” and not invasion: Says Russian Foreign Minister in an interview to the BBC

On 16 June, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met Russia’s editor for the BBC, Steve Rosenberg for an interview. This marks one of the very few interviews that Lavrov has given since 24 February 2022. He spoke about Russia’s role in Ukraine, and the interference of NATO, elucidating Russia’s narrative about the conflict. He also shed light on the deteriorating Russia-UK relations.

Four takeaways
First, Russia’s emphasis on “special military operation” in Ukraine. Reiterating president Putin’s previous statements, Lavrov maintained that the conflict in Ukraine was not an invasion. He said: "We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into NATO was a criminal act." This comes as NATO countries have increased their support to Ukraine, but the military alliance itself has not deployed any combat troops. The alliance maintains that the build-up of their troops in Eastern Europe was simply a response to Russia’s own build-up along Ukraine’s border.

Second, Russia’s accusation of spreading of fake news. Rosenberg referred to a report by the United Nations, about 360 people in Yahidne village, who were being held hostage by Russia’s forces. Lavrov responded to it by saying that multilateral bodies like the UNHCR and the UN Secretary-General have been pressured by the West to spread and promote fake news to vilify Russia.

Third, Russia’s souring relations with the UK. Russia has put the UK on their list of unfriendly countries. Lavrov spoke about the foreign ministry’s sanctions on prime minister Boris Johnson, foreign secretary Liz Truss, and 11 other politicians, over their “hostile actions”. Additionally, he extended a challenge to them, saying that he would like to see the UK trying to bring Russia ‘to its knees.” He added that the government in the UK was sacrificing the people’s interest for political gains. Concerning the two UK nationals sentenced to death by the Donetsk People’s Republic court, Lavrov mentioned that he was not concerned with the narrative the West depicted. Instead, he said Russia referred to international law and further mentioned that the court would decide if the two men were mercenaries or combatants. 

Fourth, Russian accusation of genocide by Ukraine. Lavrov referred to the failure of Kyiv in implementing the Minsk agreement, which protects the Russian people in the Donbas region. Lavrov pointed fingers at BBC and also accused them of misreporting facts about pro-Russian civilians being bombed for eight years. Russia maintains that Ukraine has been committing genocide in the separatist-held region in the east, since 2014. Throughout the interview, Lavrov referred to Ukraine’s aggression against their own citizens with pro-Russian sentiments. He said, this operation is thus the ‌only way to de-nazify Ukraine, and liberate the people residing in the Donbas region.

References
Steve Rosenberg, “Lavrov: Russia is not squeaky clean and not ashamed,” BBC, 16 June 2022
Ukraine War: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov fact-checked,” BBC, 17 June 2022
Russian Foreign Minister claims ‘we didn’t invade Ukraine-BBC News,” YouTube, 18 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 114
By Padmashree Anandhan
 

War on the Ground
On 17 January, upon three European leaders' visit to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Prespa Forum Dialogue highlighting the exiting challenges in the gas market, food market, and refugee problem. He also gave a short brief on the upcoming EU-Western Balkans High-Level Summit which is expected to provide answers on the future of Europe and the European perspective on how society and economies will develop.

During UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s visit, Zelenskyy thanked him for his second visit and for agreeing to provide the military training and supply of weapons to fight Russia.

The eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk governor, Serhiy Haidai reported on the continuing fights in the Sievierodonetsk city where 568 people have been claimed to be taking shelter amidst the constant fighting.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 17 June, TASS reported on Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s address in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum’s plenary session. On the mounting sanctions from the West, Putin said that Russia will be producing its own set of products with the disappearance of goods from the West and highlighted that the sanctions will have a counter effect on the global economy. He said: “European politicians have landed a heavy blow on their economies. They did it themselves, with their own hands.” On Ukraine joining the EU, Putin addressed that Russia will not have a problem as the EU is not a military organization. He also criticized the elites of Ukraine for making a choice favoring the West. On the questions of red lines and strikes beyond, Putin avoided responding. Apart from this Putin also spoke on the recognition of the Donbas region within the UN’s Charter and will continue to protect the interests of the Donbas residents.

On 17 June, in an interview with CNN, Russian Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will need 40 to 50 per cent of its import deficit to be waged for the short-term period. With the increasing sanctions from the West, Russia can counter by reorganizing imports and redirecting them from the east.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 17 June, the European Commission released an opinion stressing Ukraine’s candidate status in the EU. According to European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen: “I commend the positive EU Commission conclusion on Ukraine's candidate status. It's the first step on the EU membership path that'll certainly bring our victory closer.” Along with the EU, Moldova has also supported the decision of Ukraine to join the EU. Ursula added that this first step will lead to both Ukraine and Moldova a step closer to joining the EU and later will receive access to financial aid and economic reforms.

Upon the three European leaders of France, Germany, and Italy meeting Zelenskyy in Ukraine showed their support to Ukraine in joining the EU. Apart from this Norway has announced its joining with the EU sanctions against Russia. In the statement released, Norway said the immediate implementation of a ban on crude oil import and related products to Russia. It also added that such counter-sanctions on Russia will have an effect on it employees, and Norwegian enterprises.

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko warned the Ukraine officials about launching attacks on Russian cities. He reported that Ukraine’s demand for more tech long-range weapons such as Kursk, Rostov, Orel, and Belgorod can expect counter-attacks from Russia as it will use newer weapons. He said: “And they will be used against Kyiv, against those who make these decisions. That’s why they are still a little bit apprehensive.”

On 17 June, UK defence intelligence reported that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is leading it to fasten towards authoritarianism. Along with this it also stated close to 15000 Russian millionaires have applied to exit the UK.

Italy and France’s energy enterprises have confirmed the reduction in gas supplies from Russia. Both the energy firms, Eni and GRTgaz said that the supplies have gone down since 15 May.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

The United Nations' humanitarian agency (OCHA) has raised concerns about the worsening humanitarian impact in the Donbas region. It said: “Nearly four months since the start of the war, the humanitarian situation across Ukraine — particularly in the eastern Donbas — is extremely alarming and continues to deteriorate rapidly.” It highlighted the situation in Sievierodonetsk where heavy shelling has taken place and reported that close to 8.8 million people had received aid from the UN.

On 17 June, TASS reported on the comments made by the spokesperson of China’s Embassy in the US on how China stands to bar all measures targeted to escalate the conflict. According to the spokesperson, China will support the negotiation and steps toward a peace settlement in the Ukraine conflict. He said: “China is not a party directly related to the issue, but it has been committed to promoting peace talks and playing a constructive role in pursuing a peaceful settlement of the crisis.”

References
Ukraine war: 'Make no compromise with Putin' - Johnson meets Zelensky,” BBC, 17 June 2022
Ukraine: Boris Johnson makes second trip to Kyiv — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022
Both Ukraine and the Western Balkans are equally interested in a united Europe - President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address to the participants of the Prespa Forum Dialogue,” The President of Ukraine, 17 June 2022
Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Italy, France cut off,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022
European Commission recommends Ukraine be granted EU candidate status,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022
Lukashenko warns Kiev against possible attempts to attack Russian cities,” TASS, 17 June 2022
Putin’s answers at SPIEF: Ukraine, sanctions and Donbass warfare,” TASS, 17 June 2022
Norway imposes new sanctions on Russia,” TASS, 17 June 2022
China stands firm against fueling tensions in Ukraine — China’s Embassy in US,” TASS, 17 June 2022
Russia needs to compensate 40-45% of import deficit in short term period — Peskov,” TASS, 17 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Paris awaits its second round of legislative elections
On 12 June, according to France24, the first round of the legislative elections in France took place, with almost 52.49 registered voters taking an abstention. The abstention rate of the first round had crossed the previous record, which happened in 2017. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is leading the left coalition, as NUPES is giving president Emmanuel Macron's center-right party a hard time getting a surefire majority in the lower house, which is unusual. Far-right Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is likely to win a few seats in the assembly elections, unprecedented since 1986 when her predecessor won 35 seats. According to a recent survey, the NUPE would likely win around 150 to 190 seats. The number of seats required to win a majority in the house is 289, and according to pollster Ipsos-Sopra Steria, it would be difficult for the Macron-led party to have an absolute majority. ("French legislative elections: The second round, by the numbers," France 24, 17 June 2022)

Outdoor events and festivals prohibited in certain cities
On 17 June, in the city of Gironde, outdoor public events were restricted as historic heat waves hit the Mediterranean region. Indoor events without air-cooling systems were also banned. State forecaster Meteo France mentioned that the early hot spell was caused by a wave of warm air flowing from North Africa. The increasing temperature is to hit 39 degrees Celcius in Paris, and the droughts have raised concerns about wildfires. (“Europe heatwave: Outdoor events banned in parts of France,” BBC, 17 June 2022)

GERMANY
Berlin commemorates the East Germany uprising of 1953
On 17 June, several government officials assembled in Berlin and laid wreaths to mark the 69th anniversary of the tragic revolt in former communist East Germany. The solemn memorials paid tribute to those who died 69 years ago when East Germans came to the streets to protest falling living standards and demand Germany’s reunification. The Soviet troops and East German police suppressed the uprising violently. Mayor of Berlin Franzika Giffey compared the similarities between the Ukrainian’s fight against Russian aggression and the protests for democracy of the East Germans. Giffey stated: “The lesson to be learned for our future from this is that freedom must be fought for again and again.” (“East Germany's 1953 uprising: Values 'still at stake' in war in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022)

THE UK
Leaked sex tape leads to the banning of hundreds of soldiers from NATO 
On 17 June, the new head of NATO, general Sir Patrick Sanders, banned hundreds of paratroopers from being deployed in the Balkans due to the emergence of an orgy video from Merville Barracks in Colchester, Essex. Eight out of sixteen paratroopers from the air assault brigade were recorded having consensual sex with a civilian woman taking turns at the barrack while the rest were seen watching the act. General Sanders said that even though this incident is not illegal, it sends a message as a way of disparaging women. He also said that the army must hold itself to the highest standards. As a result, the paratroopers directly involved with the video would be given the pink slip. According to the General, the army's reputation comes first, and undisciplined soldiers would not be tolerated. The battalion responsible would be replaced in the upcoming 10-day Balkan exercise. (Caroline Davies, "Paratroopers banned from Nato deployment after Essex orgy – report," The Guardian, 17 June 2022)

Fashion retailers face losses for customers returning worn clothes 
On 17 June, UK retailer Asos stated that fashion retail shops' profits were being hit due to customers returning worn clothes. Wardrobing is the phenomenon where the customers buy many clothes but return most of them, retaining only a few. Wardrobing has hit the fashion industry hard during and after the covid pandemic. Online retail companies like Harrods have had an increase in returns, reducing their profits. They have started to block shoppers suspected of wardrobing when returning products. Zara has initiated charges of GBP 1.95 for online returns. (Fleur Britten, "Fashion brands’ profits hit as customers return worn clothing," The Guardian, 17 June 2022)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Exotic birds migrate to the UK from the Mediterranean region for nestling 
On 18 June, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) spotted a few rare bee-eater birds trying to breed in Nottinghamshire and Norfolk. Albeit a beautiful sight, the arrival of these birds is an effect of climate change. The birds usually nest in southern Europe and North Africa. Head of the investigation at RSPB, Mark Thomas, stated: “Pushed northwards by climate change, these exotic birds will likely become established summer visitors in the future, having been an early and unmissable sign in the past two decades that the nature and climate emergency has reached our shores.” (“Bee-eaters in Norfolk 'worrying sign of climate change',” BBC, 17 June 2022)

Inundated towns for reservoirs re-emerge as waters recede in Germany and Spain
On 17 June, BBC reported on two sites in Spain and Germany re-emerging from receding waters caused by climate change. A village on the Spanish-Portuguese border named Aceredo, which was flooded to create a reservoir, reappeared after a drought hit the region in February. Another similar site reported was the Edersee, located in the western German state of Hesse, the country's second-biggest reservoir. However, as droughts have become more severe across Germany as the Edersee's water levels decrease, it reveals what is known as the region's Atlantis. Ruins of a bridge, three settlements, and the gravestones of former residents were found there. The project was established over a century ago to feed water to the Weser River and the Mittelland Canal, allowing ships to navigate during the dry summer months. Now, these sites have turned into tourist attractions. (“Severe droughts reveal sunken relics of the past,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022)


17 June 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #230

Denmark and Canada sign deal ending the 49 years dispute over Hans Island | War in Ukraine: Day 113

Photo : The Guardian


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Denmark and Canada sign deal ending the 49 years dispute over Hans Island

On 13 June, Denmark and Canada reached a deal over an uninhabited island in the Arctic. The foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly signed the deal officially with Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod and Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede marking the end of the Hans Island dispute. Kofod said: “As we stand here today, we see a gross violation of international rules unfold in another part of the world. In contrast, we have demonstrated how long-standing international disputes can be resolved peacefully and playing by the rules.” Through the agreement, both Denmark and Canada will divide the island from the rift that goes from north to south which will establish the world’s longest maritime border of 3,882 kilometers.
 
Hans Island dispute: Three things to know
First, the geography of the Island. Hans Island is located in the Kennedy Channel between Canada’s Ellesmere Island and Denmark’s semi-autonomous territory of Greenland. Till now no mineral sources or oils have been found. It has been used only by Greenland’s Inuit community for hunting purposes. The Island’s mass extends to 0.5 square miles which became the start point for flag wars as it forms part of the oil and reserves of the Nares Strait.
 
Second, deals signed till now. Starting from the1973, when Denmark and Canada began the talks over Hans Island to discuss the boundary and underwater rights. In 1984, Canada stepped further by installing its troops on the rock and planted a maple leaf flag and a bottle of whisky indicating the land belongs to Canada, which turned into a war of symbols when Denmark replaced it with the Danish flag and schnapps. After continued clashes in 2002 and 2005, by 2018 both Denmark and Canada established a joint committee to settle the Island dispute. Currently, both parties have signed the agreement, post parliamentary approval the Island will be divided in 60:40 proportion where Denmark will take have the bigger share.
 
Third, the actors in the dispute. The three main actors in the deal are Denmark, Canada, and the Greenland Inuit community. Although the Islands hold no good resources, prolonging the conflict close to 50 years shows the leadership and conflict resolution capacity of both Denmark and Canada. Both the actors have been acting on tit for tat basis and have ignored to resolve the dispute in simpler means. This also brings a question on the future value Hans Island holds, which has made Denmark and Canada clash. Apart from the two actors, the Inuit community has a direct connection with the Island as it is used for fishing and hunting activities. Although their rights have been taken into concern during the agreement, the upcoming decades will decide their accessibility.

What does the deal mean?
First, the question of diplomacy and conflict resolution. The leaders of Denmark, Canada, and the international community view this war over Hans Island as the friendliest of all disputes. They also said that it sent a strong signal amidst the Ukraine war on how diplomacy and rule of law can well play and set an example for conflict resolution. On one hand, as it seems very believable, on the other hand, it also lays the base for larger fear. When two most friendly countries can take close to 49 years to split an island that does not contain any resources, what will be the scenario if it was an essential piece to deal with their energy issues, or what will be the state of the Island if is found to be resourceful in future. The signed deal might have the chance to be violated by either of the countries. If this has to be taken as an example then one can expect the Ukraine war to extend for decades.


Second, a precursor to Arctic wars. The dispute gives a precursor to the intensity of conflicts in the Arctic zone between countries. Although the agreement between Denmark and Canada has provided a clear division, the geographic significance of the Island and the oils the seabed holds below were the underlying factors for the dispute to prolong. In such a case with the border drawn now there are other actors like Russia, China, and the US which are equally interested and much equipped to extract oil through offshore drilling. Hence until a legal framework or Arctic policy to regulate the experiments and explorations is established the Arctic will remain prone to similar conflicts.
 
Reference
Matt Murphy, “Whisky Wars: Denmark and Canada strike deal to end 50-year row over Arctic island,” BBC, 15 June 2022
Amanda Coletta, “Ukraine war brings peace — between Canada and Denmark,” The Washington Post, 14 June 2022
Peter Beaumont, “Canada and Denmark end decades-long dispute over barren rock in Arctic,” The Guardian, 14 June 2022
Ian Austen, “Canada and Denmark End Their Arctic Whisky War,” The New York Times, 14 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 113
By Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 16 June, the governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai, said that an air strike hit a sanatorium building in Lysychansk. Reuters reported that four people were killed and seven were injured due to the airstrike. Gaidai said that the rescue operation is still underway. He also spoke to CNN about the situation at the Azot chemical plant. 568 people, including 38 children were still stuck there without any option of evacuation. The local governor of Sumy, Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, also reported casualties due to a rocket strike in a suburb in Sumy. He said that four civilians were killed and six have been injured due to the strike. Zhyvytskyi also said that another rocket had struck the Dobropillia district, along the Russian border and 26 mortar rounds fired from across the border.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his request for more heavy weapon to combat the increased offensive by Russia in the east. He said: “"Every day of delay or postponed decisions is an opportunity for the Russian military to kill Ukrainians or destroy our cities… There is a direct correlation: the more powerful weapons we receive, the faster we can liberate our people, our land."

The head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, Leonid Pasechnik said that the Russian and separatist forces had entered the Azot chemical plant in Sievierodonetsk. However, they had been unsuccessful in dislodging Ukraine’s fighters from their positions. Interfax reported that the separatists were considering reopening the humanitarian corridor for civilians at the plant.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 16 June, US-based satellite imagery company, “Maxar” said that Russia has been transporting Ukraine’s grains to Syria. Initial pictures showed carrier ships with Russia’s flags docked at Sevastopol port in Crimea. These ships were then photographed in Syria, with their hatches open and semi-trucks lined up to take the grains away.

 Gazprom chief Alexei Miller, spoke about limiting the amount of gas to Germany, and said: “Our product, our rules.” Gazprom has halved their previous rate of supply for Germany to 70m cubic metres per day. In a panel discussion at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Miller said that they will not adhere to rules that are not created by them.

The head of the National Defense Control Center, Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev alleged that the West is using their strategy for Syria in Ukraine too. He said that the US and its allies had supported and armed ideologically radical terrorists in Syria to challenge the undesired government. Mizintsev said that they are following a similar strategy by introducing neo-nationalist ideology to Ukraine’s society.

On 17 June, Russia’s aviation authorities extended their suspension of some flights from southern Russia for the 19th time. The Federal Air Transport Agency, or Rosaviatsiya had banned the flights at 11 airports on 24 February.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 16 June, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz, France’s president Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi visited Kyiv and met president Zelenskyy. This was the first time they have been to Ukraine since the war started. This visit comes ahead of the deliberations regarding Ukraine’s EU membership. The leaders gave a signal that they would support an EU candidate status for Ukraine. The three European heads of state were joined by Romania’s president Klaus Iohannis.

 Emmanuel Macron also gave an interview as a part of this visit to Kyiv. When asked about the territorial concession that Ukraine might have to make, he said that it was a decision only Ukraine can take unilaterally. He, however, said that according to his values and international law, he would support Ukraine, whatever decision is taken.

The UK is also looking toward further collaboration with Ukraine regarding rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure. The UK will host representatives and business leaders from Ukraine on 17 June to discuss how some companies in the UK can assist Ukraine with infrastructure, energy, and transport. 

On 16 June, the defence minister of Slovakia Jaroslav Nad tweeted about their recent support of Ukraine. He said that Slovakia has sent four M1-17 and one Mi-2 helicopter along with thousands of Grad multiple-rocket launcher rockets to Ukraine.

 On the same day, Lithuania’s parliament called for the criminal prosecution of Russia's leadership, for their actions in Ukraine. The motion does not specify which authority should carry out the prosecution. However, it says that “Russian leaders, other high-ranking organizers of the crimes, direct perpetrators of the hostilities and the civilian deportations” should be prosecuted.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 16 June, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) released a rapid assessment report. It examines the impact of the Ukraine war on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The report assessed that food security and livelihood are the two most affected sectors. There are already 56 million people in need of food in the region, but the number is projected to rise by 25 per cent in the next six months. The Deputy Regional Director of IFRC MENA, Rania Ahmed said: “The global economic and security impact of the conflict in Ukraine could be the proverbial last straw that breaks the camel’s back, pushing already fragile countries in the MENA region over the tipping point.”

On a same day, a Russian spy posing as a Brazilian intern infiltrated the International Criminal Court, which is investigating the war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. The Russian, identified as Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, is an agent of Moscow's GRU military intelligence. He had been posing as 33-year-old Brazilian citizen named Viktor Muller Ferreira. Cherkasov has been sent back to Brazil, where he will face arrest for identity fraud.

On 17 June, after three years of deliberations, Ireland will present the draft Political Declaration on Strengthening the Protection of Civilians from the Humanitarian Consequences Arising from the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas, in Geneva. The UN, member states, ICRC, and several civil society organizations have been involved in the deliberations. The legal advisor to ICRC, Eirini Giorgou referred to the war in Ukraine to point out the level of destruction that the use of explosives causes in cities, towns, and populated regions, especially to civilians. 

References

Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 16 June 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 114 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 17 June 2022
Air strike kills four civilians in Ukraine's Lysychansk, more feared trapped- governorReuters, 16 June 2022
Four killed in overnight rocket strike on outskirts of Ukraine's Sumy –governor,” Reuters, 16 June 2022
Zelenskiy: the more weapons we get, the faster Ukraine can free its land,” Reuters, 16 June 2022
Russia-backed forces to reopen humanitarian corridor at Azot plant, separatist says,” Reuters, 16 June 2022
Kanishka Singh, “Russian-flagged ships transport Ukraine's grain to Syria, Maxar says,” Reuters, 17 June 2022
Gazprom: Russian gas boss says 'our product, our rules' in supply row,” BBC, 16 June 2022
US used same methods to impose power in Ukraine they used in Syria — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 16 June 2022
Natalia Zinets and Simon Lewis, “European leaders visit Ukraine, dangling hope of EU membership,
France's Macron says up to Ukraine to decide on potential territorial concessions,” Reuters, 17 June 2022
Natalia Zinets and Simon Lewis, “Europe steps up support for Ukraine as Russia presses offensive,” Reuters, 17 June 2022
Slovaks give Mi helicopters, Grad rockets to Ukraine,” Reuters, 16 June 2022
Andrius Sytas, “Lithuania parliament urges criminal prosecution of Russian leadership,” Reuters, 16 June 2022
Ukraine conflict intensifies existing humanitarian crises in the MENA region, warns the IFRC,” IFRC, 16 June 2022
Russian Spy Tried To Penetrate War Crimes Court, Say Dutch,” The Moscow Times, 17 June 2022

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

FRANCE
McDonald's operations in Paris to pay a big settlement to end tax probe

On 16 June, the national financial prosecutor's office announced that the US-based fast-food chain McDonald's in France has to pay a settlement of EUR 1.25 billion to avoid a tax evasion probe. McDonald's food chain operations in France have been accused of intentionally lowering profits by sending license fees to its Luxembourg-based parent company in order to lower its tax burden. In 2016, prosecutors launched an official preliminary investigation after union leaders accused the corporation of concealing tax fraud. The corporation was accused of scamming the state of EUR 75 million every year. Mcdonald's stated that the present agreement ends the case and tax robe without accepting the fault. (“France: McDonald's to pay out over a billion to settle tax fraud case,” Deutsche Welle, 16 June 2022)

ITALY
First case of medically assisted suicide approved
On 16 June, after a long legal battle a 44-year-old paralyzed man was put to death by medical assistance. Luca Coscioni Association, a pro-euthanasia advocacy group assisted the man identified as Federico Carboni in presenting his case to courts and health officials. The Supreme Court of Italy paved the way for assisted suicide in particular cases in 2019. The Roman Catholic Church and conservative political parties have been vocal in their opposition to the issue. In order to be eligible for assisted suicide, the court defined a set of criteria that must be satisfied. For example, it must be apparent that a patient cannot be healed, is reliant on life-sustaining measures, and is suffering from "intolerable" physical and emotional anguish. A patient must also be capable of making their own decisions and comprehending the repercussions of such actions. Carboni got approval from an ethics committee in November, 2021. He was the country's first to receive legal approval for euthanasia. (“Italy: Man undergoes first legally approved assisted suicide,” Deutsche Welle,16 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
President of Germany visits Singapore, amid food shortage
On 15 June, the president of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited Singapore to promote free trade and open borders amid the food shortages. Steinmeier stated that globalization has stalled and supply chains are being disrupted worldwide because of the war in Ukraine. He emphasized on the preservation of international law and secure investment conditions to the president of Singapore, Halima Yacob. Malaysia’s ban on poultry exports has made the people realize their vulnerability, therefore the country has decided to reduce its food dependencies by investing in vertical farming. Steinmeier will also be visiting a sustainable shrimp farm in Singapore, vertical farming is the only option for them as they do not possess any agricultural lands. ( Katharina Kroll, “German president visits Singapore as food shortages bite,” Deutsche Welle,  15 June 202)

ENVIRONMENT
The government called to fast phase the measures taken to control air pollution in the UK
On 17 June, the National Audit Office (NAO) in a report stated that the government has made progress but is not on a fast pace to reduce air pollution and has also failed to actively inform the public about the issue. According to the report, air pollution is unevenly distributed across the country with low-income and ethnically diverse communities being disproportionately affected. The report raises concern about the level of nitrogen dioxide released by vehicles in the air. NAO concluded that the present measures are not effective to achieve its 2030 ceiling limits and has to set new long-term limits for particulate pollutants. (“Government set to miss air pollution goals - report,” BBC, 17 June 2022)

ENERGY
Energy poverty levels surge disproportionately in the UK
On 16 June, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) estimated 29 per cent of households in Ireland are experiencing energy poverty. Energy poverty is defined as when households spend more than ten per cent of their net income on energy. Co-author of the study Dr Barra Roantree suggested the government direct its support through welfare measures and fuel allowances. ESRI also expected an average increase in energy costs of EUR 37 per week by the winter. (“Ireland dealing with record energy poverty levels, report finds,” BBC, 17 June 2022)

Latest report on renewable energy consumption released by REN21
On 16 June, the Renewables 2022 Global Status Report published by REN21 states that the contribution of wind and solar energy in the global energy mix has increased minimally in the last decade. REN21 is an international think tank and multistakeholder governance group on renewable energy policy. Their 17th annual status report was drafted by over 600 experts to provide a glimpse of developments in the renewable energy sector. According to the analysis, the move to renewables has essentially come to a halt. Coal, oil, and gas continue to account for the majority of global energy use. (Matt McGrath, “Climate change: Green energy 'stagnates' as fossil fuels dominate,” BBC, 16 June 2022


16 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #229

War in Ukraine: Day 112

Turkey’s fiscal policies are failing to curb high inflation; EU’s plans of legal actions on the UK post-BREXIT trade deal; Warming in the Barents Sea

Photo : AP-The Hindu


War in Ukraine: Day 112
By
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 15 June, Ukraine’s commander in chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny, discussed on how the battles are being fought in the Luhansk region. He further mentioned that Russia had concentrated its main strike forces north of the Luhansk region and was launching a multi-prolonged attack from nine directions. Ukraine’s army has been defending the city of Sievierodonetsk while trying to stop the Russian forces from taking Lysychansk. 

On the same day, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked US president Joe Biden for announcing the USD one billion arms package for Ukraine. Zelenskyy said he was grateful and that it would help Ukraine defend its Donbas region. Ukraine’s presidential aide, Mykhaylo Podolyak, had also appealed to the West for more military assistance ahead of the NATO meeting in Belgium.

Zelenskyy, addressing the Czech parliament, called on the EU to initiate Ukraine’s membership in the bloc. He asked the EU to grant its candidate country status to start the accession process. He added: “…the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first step that the Russian leadership needs to open the way to other countries, to the conquest of other peoples.” 

On 15 June, Ukraine’s prosecutor general confirmed that 21 more children were killed in Mariupol. This brings the total number of child casualties to 313 just in Mariupol and a total of 892 in all of Ukraine.

On 15 June, Sievierodonetsk’s mayor claimed that Ukraine was still controlling the industrial area and its perimeter. The area is in a strategic position as it creates the possibility of connecting with the city of Lysychansk. On the other hand, the 500 civilians trapped in the Azot plant attempted to flee as the shelling by Russian forces intensified. Luhansk region’s governor Serhiy Haidai said: “people can no longer stand it in the shelters, their psychological state is on edge.” 

The Russia-backed separatists of the Luhansk People’s Republic claimed that Ukraine had disrupted the plans for a humanitarian corridor. Ukraine has been seeking to create a humanitarian corridor to evacuate the 500 civilians sheltering in the plant. Russia’s defence ministry has also accused Ukrainian forces of disrupting the efforts. However, Ukraine stated that there was no official communication on this. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

Russia’s UN Ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia said that Russia will grant a safe passage for Ukraine’s grains to be shipped from the Black Sea port. However, he said that Russia will not be responsible for establishing safe corridors.

Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said that the US and Russia must continue their communication and dialogue, irrespective of the current situation. Peskov said that the relations will have to be based on “mutual respect and mutual benefit,” even though going back to the “spirit of Geneva” might be unlikely. He also said maintaining communication about nuclear weapons and discussing the extension of the START nuclear arms reduction treaty was imperative.

On 15 June, Russia said that the West have “shot itself in the head” with their interference in the conflict in Ukraine. They alleged that the rising food and energy prices and shortages of grains, oil, and fertilisers are results of the West’s attempt to isolate Russia. The foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, compared the West with China and said: “Energy supplies are steadily increasing: China knows what it wants and doesn't shoot itself in the foot. While to the west of Moscow, they shoot themselves in the head.”  Apart from this, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov spoke about the West sending weapons and assistance to Ukraine. He said that negotiations for peace processes have been stalled due to the west’s interference in the conflict. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 15 June, it was reported that France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz and Italy’s prime minister, Mario Draghi will be visiting Kyiv on 16 June. The visit will be to provide support to Ukraine as they struggle against Russia’s forces in Sievierodonetsk. It has taken weeks to coordinate and organise this visit and is significant as the European Commission will make a recommendation about Ukraine’s application to the EU shortly.

After a 41-minute phone call with Zelenskyy, US President Joe Biden released a statement pledging an additional USD one billion of weapons to Ukraine. Pentagon clarified that this new package will include 18 howitzers, 36,000 rounds of ammunition, two Harpoon coastal defence systems, artillery rockets, secure radios, thousands of night vision devices along with separate funding for training. Additionally, Biden has also sanctioned USD 225 million to support humanitarian efforts in Ukraine.  

At the sidelines of a meeting between the defence ministers of the NATO allied states, US’s defence secretary, Lloyd Austin said that the war in Ukraine was a “pivotal” moment. He also mentioned how the US and their allies cannot afford to be distracted from the war in Ukraine. 

Two veterans from the US, who were fighting on Ukraine’s side in the war have reportedly been captured by Russia’s forces. The National Security Council spokesperson, John Kirby referred to this incident and said that everything will be done to get them back. He also urged US nationals to not travel to Ukraine under the current situation.

Canada’s defence minister, Anita Anand announced that they will send 10 replacement barrels for M777 howitzer artillery guns and provide USD 6.9 million to Ukraine as aid.

Poland’s agriculture minister, Henryk Kowalczyk addressed the plan to build grain silos along the border of Ukraine and Poland. He agreed that this will make the export of Ukraine’s grains easier, but said that it can take three to four months to build the silos. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 15 June, China’s president Xi Jinping met with Putin and discussed the war in Ukraine. The two leaders agreed to work towards a possible resolution, and China mentioned that it could play a role in resolving the situation. Xi and Putin also agreed to expand cooperation “due to the west’s illegitimate sanctions policy.” 

Concerning the situation of Sievierodonetsk, the UN mentioned that thousands of civilians were still trapped in the city with a diminishing supply of food, clean water, sanitation, and electricity. Furthermore, the UN chief, Antonio Guterres, highlighted the gender disparity in the peace talks. He added: “right to equal participation at all levels, is essential for building and maintaining peace.” This comes as the war in Ukraine forced millions of women and children to flee the country. 

On the same day, a report by the UN stated how the food security crisis would push more people in poorer countries to flee their homes. In addition, according to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), the war in Ukraine has adversely impacted the levels of global displacement.

References
Russia attacking Luhansk in nine directions, Ukraine military says,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his gratitude to US president Joe Biden after the US announced a $1 billion arms package deal earlier on Wednesday,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022 
Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office has confirmed that 21 more children have been killed in Mariupol, taking the total to 313, Euromaidan Press reports,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022  
Ukraine ‘still holds industrial area of Sievierodonetsk’, says mayor,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022
Ukraine’s presidential aide, Mykhaylo Podolyak, appealed to western allies for greater military assistance ahead of a gathering of Nato officials in Belgium to discuss more supplies,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022 
Zelenskiy: Ukraine opens way for Russia to invade other countries,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022 
Around 500 civilians trapped in Azot plant attempt to flee,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022
"France's Macron, Germany's Scholz and Italy's Draghi on their way to Ukraine," Reuters, 16 June 2022
Kremlin: Putin and Xi agree to expand cooperation ‘due to the west’s illegitimate sanctions policy,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022 
Thousands of civilians trapped in Sievierodonetsk as water supplies dwindle, UN says,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022
UN chief Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday that men need to stop excluding women from peace talks, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a situation that is going backwards,” The Guardian Live, 15 June 2022 
Emma Farge, “Food crisis will drive record displacement levels higher: UN refugee chief,” Reuters, 15 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

TURKEY
Fiscal policies fail to reduce the high inflation rate
On 15 June, an independent Turkish Inflation Research Group (ENAG) expected the inflation rate to be higher by 160.8 per cent than the previously stated 73.4 per cent in Turkey. TUIK, Turkey’s official statistics institution, has filed a case with federal prosecutors, accusing ENAG of spreading figures with the intent of damaging TUIK’s reputation. Turkey’s economy was already in trouble before Russia invaded Ukraine, but it has been spiralling out of control since February. Efforts by the government to prevent this have been ineffective. The minimum wage was significantly increased, but it did not keep pace with inflation, implying that workers effectively earn less, receiving roughly EUR 278 per month. (Elams Topcu, “Turkey: Erdogan’s fiscal policies fuel skyrocketing inflation,” Deutsche Welle, 15 June 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
Minister’s suggestion for labor shortage faces criticism
On 15 June, the Netherlands social affairs minister Karien van Gennip was criticized for suggesting that unemployed youth in France can take up jobs in her country. Political actors responded that a million are already out of work in the Netherlands. Van Gennip said she was only reacting to a European Commission proposal to bring in migrant workers from outside the EU because there were enough young Europeans ready to fill the positions. In April, unemployment in the Netherlands was 3.2 per cent, whereas it was 7.2 per cent in France. According to research from 2021, 13.5 per cent of 15 to 29-year-olds in metropolitan France were unemployed, illiterate, or unskilled. (Paul Kirby, “Dutch idea to give jobs to French youths backfires,” BBC, 15 June 2022)

REGIONAL
The EU plans to impose legal actions on the UK over the post-Brexit trade deal
On 15 June, the EU announced legal action against the UK government over its unilateral amendment of the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol. The European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic reiterated that the UK’s action was breaching international law. The EU will now reopen the infringement procedure it started against the UK in 2021 when the Boris administration extended a grace period for trade on the island of Ireland unilaterally.That action was put on hold in September 2021 as both sides attempted to reach an agreement. Furthermore, the EU will take additional action against Johnson’s government for allegedly failing to carry out appropriate controls under EU laws and produce trade statistics data as required by the convention. (“Brexit: EU launches legal action against UK over Northern Ireland breach,” Deutsche Welle, 15 June 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Extraordinary warming in the Barents Sea region
On 15 June, the Guardian examined a study published in the journal Scientific Reports, which revealed exceptional warming in the Barents Sea region, Arctic. The warming is taking place in the North Barents Sea, where rapidly rising temperatures are thought to be causing more extreme weather in North America, Europe, and Asia. The warming in this area, according to scientists, is an “early warning” of what might transpire over the whole of the Arctic. According to the new data, annual average temperatures in the region are rising by up to 2.7 degrees Celsius every decade, with particularly large surges of up to 4 degrees Celsius per decade in the fall months. As a result, the North Barents Sea and its islands are the world’s fastest-warming region. (Damian Carrington, “New data reveals extraordinary global heating in the Arctic,” The Guardian, 15 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Tech firms call for ease of cybersecurity criteria for the US big techs
On 14 June, Tech lobby firms in Brussels are urging the EU to reconsider plans to compel big cloud providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Google to comply with a new cybersecurity label to prevent the US from spying in Europe. Officials at the European Union’s Cybersecurity Agency (ENISA) are nearing completion of a certification programme for cloud providers to demonstrate that they adhere to rigorous cybersecurity requirements. However, the draft rules for obtaining the label might force cloud companies in the US to denounce Washington’s data-access regulations, restructure their operations, and even exclude foreign investors from decision-making. The primary lobby groups have stated that Europe’s attempt to boost sovereignty over the cloud sector is “politically motivated, will create complex legal compliance procedures and will not add to increased levels of cybersecurity.” (Laurens Cerulus, “Big Tech cries foul over EU cloud-security label,” POLITICO, 14 June 2022


15 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #228

UK’s propose new provisions to alter the Northern Ireland Protocol

The EU president Ursula visits Ramallah; Plastitar: a new marine pollutant; A new report on England's coastal erosion; Macron risks losing majority in the parliament

Photo : Reuters/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

UK’s new provisions to alter the Northern Ireland Protocol invoke tensions in Europe

On 14 June, the UK government submitted its plans on revising the clauses of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Parliament. It aims to alter the provisions by inventing green lanes and red lanes to facilitate a smoother trade flow between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. In response, the EU has accused the UK as it considered the move a breach of international law. UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “a reasonable, practical solution to the problems facing Northern Ireland, we are very clear that we're acting in line with the law.” At the same Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his willingness to fix the protocol in line with the Belfast Good Friday Agreement.

What are the key provisions proposed by the UK?
First, provision on the movement of goods and custom duty. Under this UK plans to exclude Article 5(1) and Article 5(2) which will restrict the custom duties on the goods that enter from any of the UK territories. It includes Great Britain, the Isle of Man, any of the Channel Islands, and any other place that is outside the EU that goes under the “qualifying movement.” It also proposes to bring a provision to make new laws and changes to section 4 of the Northern Ireland Protocol on the administrative processes and treatment of goods that are no more “UK or non-EU destined goods.”

Second, provision for the regulation of goods. The term means, making the goods available in the market, putting them into service, production, licensing, testing, trial, inspection, market surveillance, compliance, and enforcement. With regards to this section, the UK proposes an option for the passage of goods into Northern Ireland. One is the UK regulatory route, the EU regulatory route, and both the regulatory routes, where the person can choose either of the routes to trade goods to be compliant. When the goods are sent through the UK regulatory route, they will be subject to only domestic law, whereas in the case of the EU regulatory route the goods will have to abide by separate “agreement law.” This means Article 5(4) of the protocol will be excluded. Under this UK has again given a provision to make new laws as per its own consideration of the protocol.

Third, provision on the European Court. The section targets the provisions agreed upon previously in the EU withdrawal agreement. In the new bill, the UK suggests that it will no longer be bound by the principles and decisions that come from the European Court and shall not refer to it on any matter. It proposes to proceed with any kind of trade dispute through a court or tribunal and shall consider the EU law only when there is a particular necessity to involve the European Court to conclude the trial.

How will the proposed new bill impact?
First, the passing of the bill. Although Truss assured that the bill remains compliant with the law and Johnson has expressed his will to alter the protocol to settle the instability in Northern Ireland, from the suggested proposal, a drastic change to key clauses can be observed. Considering the legal warning issued by the EU and the divide in the house of commons from the recent party gate scandal approval of the bill by the parliament will be challenged.

Second, the EU’s action. The most important articles and sub-clauses of the Northern Ireland Protocol that provides the EU the regulatory authority on keeping a check on goods to legal proceedings seem to be remodeled by the UK in its favour. Going back on an agreement that was signed by the UK and the EU will create tensions leading to legal action and a trade war.

Third, political chaos infused economic instability in Northern Ireland. The start point of the recent tensions is due to the Democratic Unionist party’s opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol and upon the election win of Sinn Fein, the issue escalated. Hence along with the political chaos of the inability to form a government and the UK’s interference in proposing the new bill to alter the protocol, Northern Ireland will also face an economic downturn from the probable trade war between the UK and the EU.

References
Northern Ireland Protocol Bill,” UK Parliament, 13 June 2022
NI Protocol: UK reveals plans to ditch parts of EU Brexit deal,” BBC, 14 June 2022
Northern Ireland Protocol: What did Boris Johnson say?,” BBC, 14 June 2022


UK's Rwanda asylum plan and plane get delayed: Five impending issues

The legal complications and economic implications
On 14 June, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) intervened in UK's Rwanda asylum plan, halting London's first flight carrying asylum seekers to Kigali. The flight was on the runway when the European judges issued a last-minute injunction that stopped the deportation of the four migrants onboard. The ECHR's intervention has also undermined the UK's highest court. This comes as the Supreme Court, the High Court, and the Court of Appeal had already approved in favour of the ruling government. This failed deportation plan has also cost the government about GBP 500,000 due to legal issues. The failure has further highlighted the economic viability of the Rwanda asylum plan. On the same day, over 300 migrants had crossed the border, adding to concerns about the UK's taxpayers' money. 
 
Potential forthcoming issues with the Rwanda asylum plan 
First, issues with the European court. The intervention by the European court has sparked outrage among the Tory Members of Parliament. The UK earlier could not leave the ECHR due to it being a part of the EU. However, now under Boris Johnson and BREXIT, the recent issues could revive the UK's plans to leave the ECHR. 
 
Second, long-term economic viability. The government in the UK stated that it would grant Rwanda about EUR 120 million and bear the operational costs and amount for each migrant. The UK pays about EUR 4.7 million per day to accommodate approximately 25,000 asylum seekers within the UK. Thus, it argues that outsourcing the migrants to a third country under the Rwanda deal could reduce the costs. However, Australia has a similar plan set up with Nauru but has had to pay about 10 billion to 3,127 offshore migrants to date, raising questions on the UK's plan's long-term viability. 
 
Third, similar outcome to the Canberra and Port Moresby model. Australia and Papua New Guinea had a similar deal, but in 2017 the Papua New Guinea supreme court ruled the processing center on Manus Island "illegal and unconstitutional." Drawing parallels to the UK-Rwanda deal, there are likely legal issues that can arise as monitoring the day-to-day activities of the migrants would be the responsibility of the government of Rwanda. Issues of sexual abuse against women and children, self-harm, and other issues with the migrants are concerns that need to be addressed.  
 
Fourth, more dissent from within. With the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby and Prince Charles expressing their displeasure to the plan, speculations of more substantial dissent on the UK's plan with Rwanda. A recent YouGov poll stated that the people in the UK were divided as only 44 per cent supported the policy while 40 per cent opposed it. 
 
Fifth, falsifying the argument of stopping illegal migration. Out of 130 asylum seekers, only four were boarded in the last few hours, while more than 300 migrants crossed the English Channel on the same day. This indicates a possible falsification of the argument that creating a passage through Rwanda would deter gangs and traffickers from stopping the illegal smuggling of asylum seekers. In the end, the traffickers would send the migrants across the channel to allow them to pursue the five-day appealing process failing which they would be sent to Rwanda. 

References: 
William Booth and Karla Adam, "UK cancels flight to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda after court challenges," The Washington Post, 14 June 2022.
Joseph Lee and Adam Durbin, "Rwanda asylum plan: First removal flight will take off, foreign secretary says," BBC, 14 June 2022 
Doug Faulkner, "Rwanda asylum plan: Flight due to depart as legal bids fail," BBC, 15 June 2022
Vasundhara Sirnate, "Explained | The U.K.-Rwanda asylum plan," The Hindu, 19 April 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 111
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 14 June, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Denmark’s journalists that Ukraine had enough ammunition to retaliate against Russia’s forces in Eastern Ukraine. However, he mentioned that Ukraine needed more long-range weapons to precisely target Russia’s federations equipment. Referring to the ‘painful losses’ suffered by Ukraine’s forces in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, he reiterated his request to the West for heavy weapons. On this issue, Ukraine's deputy defence minister, Hanna Malyar said that Kyiv has received only 10 per cent of the weapons they had asked for.

The head of the parliament’s financial committee, Danylo Hetmantsev said that since Russia’s invasion, their revenues cover less than half of their expenditures. The government reportedly collected UAH 101 billion, while their expenditure was around UAH 250 billion. Hetmantsev warned: “We have to borrow $5 billion monthly. If we do not get it, we will have to cut spending.” 

On 14 June, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that because of Russia’s invasion, around 2.4 million hectares of winter crops will remain unharvested. The total value of the crops is estimated to be USD 1.43 billion. The ministry also said that the agriculture industry has endured losses worth USD 4.29 billion since the war began. 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

According to the RIA news agency, Russia’s defence ministry has reported that Kalibr cruise missiles have struck an artillery weapons depot in Chernihiv. Moreover, Russia’s air defence forces also shot down a MiG-29 fighter jet and a Mi-24 helicopter from Ukraine. The ministry reported that their missiles have destroyed an ammunition warehouse in Lviv, which stored weapons sent by NATO allied countries. 

On 14 June, Russia’s foreign ministry reported that they had banned 29 members of the UK’s media from entering the country. Moscow has said that this was a response to the banning of Moscow’s media outlets by the UK government. Russia claimed it was also because of “spreading of false information about Russia” and the “anti-Russian” steps taken by the UK's government.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov addressed the issue of the two UK nationals sentenced to death in the Donetsk People’s Republic. He said that the Russia-backed separatist leaders would address the appeal by the UK about the sentences. However, no correspondence has been initiated by the UK to date.

Russia’s army and the Luhansk People’s Republic militia said that they will allow a humanitarian corridor to operate in Svatovo in LPR. This was to facilitate the evacuation of around 500 civilians reportedly taking shelter in the Azot chemical plant. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 14 June, Germany’s defence minister, Christine Lambrecht said that the training of Ukraine’s troops on the German howitzers was nearly complete. She mentioned that the weapons will soon be ready for use in the conflict. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 is one of the most powerful artillery weapons and can target a distance of 40 kilometres. Germany had pledged in May to provide seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, but have faced criticism because of the delays in supplying them. 

On the same day, the US president, Joe Biden, spoke about the global food crisis in Philadelphia. He said that the US will aid the building of temporary silos along Ukraine’s border to help facilitate easier export. He said: "I'm working closely with our European partners to get 20 million tons of grain locked in Ukraine out onto the market to help bring down food prices… It can't get out through the Black Sea because it'll get blown out of the water."

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) director Alexis Goosdeel reported on the shifts in smuggling routes for illegal drugs in Europe. He said that due to the war, there has been lesser activity on one of the commonly used heroin trafficking routes out of Afghanistan. Instead, an increase in trafficking has been noted on the borders between Turkey-Greece and Turkey-Bulgaria. Goosdeel said that the war might increase smuggling activity in the Mediterranean region. 

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia have increased the need to procure more fossil fuels in many countries. At the sixth Austrian world summit, the UN chief, Antonio Guterres referred to the increase in procurement as a hurdle to climate change. He added that the countries would meet their short-term requirements but would have a long-lasting impact on the environment. 

References
Samantha Lock and Martin Belam, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 112 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 15 June 2022
Ukraine has enough ammunition but needs long-range weapons, Zelenskiy says,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Ukraine faces budget cut without $5 bln in monthly external aid – parliamentarian,” Reuters, 14 June 202
Ukraine says 2.4 million hectares of winter crops won't be harvested because of war,” Reuters, 15 June 2022
Russia strikes weapons depot in Ukraine with cruise missiles, RIA reports,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Russia says it has destroyed warehouse for NATO weapons in Ukraine,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Pjotr Sauer, “Russia bans 29 UK journalists, including Guardian correspondents,” The Guardian, 15 June 2022
Kremlin says separatists would listen to UK appeal on condemned fighters,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Russian army to open corridor to let civilians out of Azot plant June 15,” TASS, 14 June 2022
Howitzers soon to be ready for use in Ukraine, Germany's defense minister says,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Biden touts grain silos on Ukraine border to help exports; Kyiv wants ports open,” Reuters, 15 June 2022
Catarina Demony,“Ukraine war forces switch in drug trafficking routes, EU body warns,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Climate change: New fossil fuel funding is 'delusional' says UN chief,” BBC, 14 June 2022

 


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

FRANCE
The city council of Grenoble has appealed to Conseil d'État over swimwear policy
On 14 June, the city of Grenoble appealed to the highest administrative court, Conseil d'État over the nationwide ban on “burkini” swimsuits in public pools. Grenoble authorized all swimwear, including burkins, which caused a nationwide controversy in May. The interior minister Gerald Darmanin stated that the city’s swimwear policy is an “unacceptable provation”  that undermines France's essential secular principles, which state that religion cannot be used to guide decisions or policies. Although state employees are not permitted to wear religious symbols at work, Grenoble Mayor Eric Piolle believes that this should not prevent users of public services, such as swimming pools, from dressing as they wish. (Robert Plummer, “French burkini ban challenged by Grenoble in top court,” BBC, 14 June 2022)

Three reasons why Macron risks losing the majority in parliamentary elections
On 13 June, POLITICO stated three reasons why the incumbent president Emmanuel Macron should worry about the risk of losing his majority in the National Assembly. First, losing the voters to the right. According to statistics from polling agency Harris Interactive, around nine percent of voters who supported Macron in the first round of the presidential election chose candidates from France's conservative party, Les Républicains. Second, the voters prioritize everyday concerns over foreign policy. Macron and his cabinet have stated that measures against inflation will be a key priority, but his travel to Romania and Moldova just days before the final vote contradicts this. Third, unable to grasp young voters. Young voters prefer 70 years old Mélenchon, who positioned himself five years ago as a young disruptor in a political landscape dominated by traditional parties. (Cornelius Hisch and Giorgio Leali, “Why Macron should fear parliamentary vote, in 3 charts,” POLITICO, 13 June 2022)  

ITALY
Trends observed in the Italian parliamentary elections
On 14 June, POLITICO examined the trends of Italy’s parliamentary elections held on 12 June. First, the major opposition party- The Brothers of Italy have risen dramatically and overtaken its far-right rival, the League. The Brothers of Italy are leading the league in Padua, Parma, Verona, and Palermo. Second, the right-wing parties who formed coalitions, their candidates won seats in Genova and L’Aquila. However, In cities where the right did not form coalitions such as Verona and Catanzaro, the elections will run a second round. Third, the incumbent ruling party, the Democrats, have received many votes in major cities such as Verona, Genoa and Palermo. It is observed that the voters preferred the present government amid the rising energy prices and numerous crises in Europe. Fourth, the Five Star Movement Party has further declined in performance since 2017. The party has been attempting to form a coalition with the Democrats. Fifth, the right-wing parties, particularly the League, took a hit for promoting a referendum on justice reforms. The turnout for the referendum saw just one in five voters. (Hannah Roberts, “5 things we learned from Italy’s local elections,” POLITICO, 14 June 2022)  

REGIONAL
The EU to resume its aid toward Palestine
On 14 June, the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced to continue to aid Palestine by donating millions of Euros. The EU and other institutions have been donating about EUR 600 million a year until 2020. The EU froze its aid for Palestine over allegations that their textbooks promoted violence and anti-Semitism. The hold-up caused a financial crisis in the state and the authorities were unable to pay salaries to teachers and doctors. The medical facilities were also forced to limit the number of admissions. Leyen after visiting Ramallah stated that the funds will be released rapidly and EUR 25  million will be allotted to improve food security. (David gritten, “European Union to unfreeze aid for Palestinians,” BBC,15 June 2022)

First flight of Rwanda plan canceled
On 14 June, the first flight of the Rwanda plane carrying seven refugees was canceled minutes before take-off citing legal concerns. A judgment from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in Strasbourg stopped the deportation of an Iraqi refugee who could have experienced “a real risk of irreversible harm” if he had continued on the flight. This led to a series of legal cases and appeals raised by other refugees in London courts; by late night all the passengers were removed from the plane. (Joseph Lee & Doug Faulkner, “Rwanda asylum flight cancelled after legal action,” BBC, 15 June 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Rising sea levels threaten England's coastal properties
On 14 June, BBC examined a report published in the journal Ocean and Coastal Management, authored by Paul Sayers, an expert on flood and coastal risks. The report states that nearly 200,00 properties in England’s coast may have to be abandoned due to the inevitable rise in sea levels by 2050. The study examines areas where the costs of upgrading defenses may be extremely expensive or technically unattainable. It was discovered that by 2050, assuming a cautious two degree celsius rise in sea level by 2100, up to 160,000 houses may need to be relocated. This is in addition to the 30,000 to 35,000 homes that have previously been recognized as vulnerable.( Jonah Fisher, “Climate change: Rising sea levels threaten 200,000 England properties,” BBC, 15 June 2022)

A new type of marine pollutant was termed as plastitar
On 13 June, scientists at the Canary Institute of Marine Sciences in Spain coined the term Plastitar for the new type of ocean pollutant. The formation of plastitar is a result of oil spills in the ocean, which when evaporates and weathers, it washes ashore as tar balls that stick to the rocky shores. The structure solidifies over time, fusing anything from abandoned fishing equipment to plastic pellets and scraps of polyester and nylon to the tar. Plastitar was discovered along the shorelines of numerous Canary Islands, It was widespread, spanning more than half of the region they were investigating. The occurrence of plastitar was related to the archipelago's location along a major oil tanker shipping route, but the scientists believe it may exist worldwide. (Ashifa kassam, “Plastitar: mix of tar and microplastics is new form of pollution, say scientists,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Meta launches new parental control features on Instagram in the UK
On 14 June, the US firm Meta launched a new feature of parental controls in its video and photo-sharing platform Instagram in the UK. They include the ability to set daily time limitations ranging from 15 minutes to 2 hours, beyond which the app displays a dark screen. Parents may also set up break times for their children and view any accounts they report. A parent dashboard will also be available on all Quest virtual reality headsets worldwide. Parents may now request their children to use the supervision tools, which could previously only be done by the child. Purchase permission, app blocking, and access to the child's friend lists are among the new controls. Another Instagram feature that is being tested is a "nudge" tool that encourages teens to explore different subjects if they are searching for the same thing again and over. (“Instagram launches new parental controls in UK,” BBC, 14 June 2022)

SPORTS
Russian and Belarussian athletes to participate in the US tennis games
On 14 June, the United States Tennis Association (USTA) announced it would allow individual athletes from Russia and Belarus to compete in the 2022 US Open (Tennis) tournament. However, the players can only participate under a neutral flag. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was backed by Belarus, the country was barred from participating in International Tennis Federation (ITF) competitions as well as many other sporting events worldwide. (“US Open: Russian and Belarusian players allowed to compete in New YorkBBC, 14 June 2022)


14 June 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #227

Turkey’s persisting problems with Sweden and Finland joining the NATO

Heatwave hits early in Spain and France; Restrictions on the movement of Syrians in Turkey; Gaia dumps new data to map the galaxy; Canada and Denmark settle disputes over Hans Island

Photo : JOSHUA POSANER/POLITICO


IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee

Turkey’s persisting problems with Sweden and Finland joining the NATO

On 12 June, the NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg met Finland's president, Sauli Niinisto; he reiterated Turkey’s genuine concerns about Sweden and Finland’s NATO bid. Turkey has been opposed to the entry of Finland and Sweden as full NATO members. Turkey’s main concerns are the Kurds’ issue and a few organizations that Turkey considers terrorists mainly, the PKK.

According to Article 10 of NATO’s founding treaty, the approval for membership must be unanimous. Sweden and Finland have to convince all 30 countries for joining. Ankara has already vetoed its application for an expedited membership. Turkey’s president said: “make it clear that they have stopped supporting terrorism.”

There has been a series of bilateral talks between the three countries; other member states have also tried to negotiate. No concrete decision has been reached so far.

Four reasons, why Turkey wants to blocs Sweden and Finland from entering the NATO
First, Sweden’s links with the PKK. Sweden declares the PKK a terrorist, in 1984. With regards to Turkey, any Kurdish group, it does not approve by PKK. In the case of Sweden, it has a history of providing refuge to Kurdish asylum seekers, especially political refugees. Turkey alleges that these people are allied with the PKK, but Sweden has denied such allegations. Sweden has also supported the political wing of the PKK’s Syrian branch, called the PYD, and the same applies to the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Front. Regarding Finland, Turkey’s issue is based more on their association with Sweden and the fact that they follow a similar foreign policy. Turkey has said that for them to accept the membership bids, Sweden and Finland will have to officially stop their support of the PKK and not provide them refuge. They will also have to extradite 30 people who Turkey identifies as terrorists. 

First, Sweden’s PKK links; it declared the latter as a terrorist organization in 1984. For Turkey, those groups it does not agree with, is seen as a part of the PKK.

On the other hand, Sweden has been providing asylum to Kurdish refugees, whom Turkey consider as PKK supporters, hence terrorists. Turkey also consider Sweden supporting the PKK’s political wing in Syria– the PYD. Turkey wants Sweden and Finland from supporting the PKK, and expects the latter to extradite 30 people. Second, Turkey wants to use the issue to bargain with the US.

In 2020, US sanctioned the sale of F-35 fighters for Turkey on the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence systems.

Third, Erdogan’s attempt to increase his bargaining power and electoral popularity. There has been a decline in his ratings due to rising inflation, falling Lira, and increasing cost of living. A grandstanding on the above may boost support for Erdogan.

Fourth, the Ukraine fallout. Turkey is attempting a precarious balancing act on Ukraine. While it refused to join the sanctions against Russia, it also sent Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to Ukraine. Turkey has since been trying to negotiate between Ukraine and Russia for a corridor to export Ukraine’s grains to the world.

References
Joshua Posaner, “
NATO’s Stoltenberg: Turkey needs to be heard on Sweden, Finland concerns,Politico, 12 June 2022
Natasha Turak, “
Conflict, politics and history: Why Turkey is standing in the way of Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids,” CNBC, 23 May 2022
Gregoire Sauvage, “
Can Turkey block Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO?,” France24, 17 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 110
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 13 June, the governor of Luhansk, Sergiy Gaidai spoke about the fighting in Sievierodonetsk and said that 70-80 per cent was under Russia’s control. He mentioned how Ukraine’s troops were facing a crisis, but the situation was ‘still under control.’ However, Russia’s forces have destroyed the last bridge that connected Sievierodonetsk with Lysychansk, which will make it impossible for humanitarian supplies to reach Sievierodonetsk, and will also prevent civilians from evacuating the city. Reportedly, Russia is also targeting an industrial zone at the Azot chemical plant in the city, where more than 500 civilians have taken shelter.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared for an interview with a public broadcaster in Germany, ZDF, and spoke about the situation in his country. He also asked Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to not be concerned about their ties with Moscow, and to step up on their support for Ukraine instead. Speaking about the chancellor, Zelenskyy said: “He and his government must decide: there can't be a trade-off between Ukraine and relations with Russia.”

Presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, took to Twitter to request more weapons for Ukraine so that they can turn the momentum in eastern Ukraine. He said that they will need 300 multiple launch rocket systems, 500 more tanks, and 1000 more howitzers of the NATO 155mm standard.

Kyiv region’s police chief, Andriy Nyebytov reported on the discovery of a new mass grave of civilians near Bucha. Seven bodies found in the grave were exhumed. Nyebytov said that these were “sadistic crimes of the Russian army.” Moreover, according to the head of the national police in Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko 1200 bodies that have been found in mass graves across Ukraine have not been identified so far.

On 13 June, at a news conference, the deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said that since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has lost a quarter of its arable land. This is significant because Ukraine is known as the ‘breadbasket of the world’. But Vysotskiy said that food security for the population of Ukraine was not yet under threat, as sufficient crops have been sown this year.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 13 June, the leader of the Russia-backed separatist Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin said that there was an increase in shelling and fighting in the region. He also mentioned that Russia’s end goal in the region is to protect the people of Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. As quoted by Russia’s state news agency, RIA, Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov also reiterated the same issue. Pushilin also reported that the population of Mariupol has halved since active fighting began in the city. He mentioned that the citizens of the city apparently do not want the restoration of the Azovstal steel plant, as they see it as the primary cause of pollution in the region.

Russia’s defence ministry reported that they had struck near the Udachne railway station in the east of the Donbas region with high-precision air-based missiles. By the attack, they had managed to destroy a large number of weapons and military equipment, including some that were supplied by the US and the European nations.      

The deputy economic minister Vladimir Ilychev told TASS in an interview that Russia was not planning to leave the global food market, seeing that they are a major supplier of the same. Ilychev is the head of Russia’s delegation at the 12th WTO ministerial conference in Geneva. He said: “we intend to remain there, to supply our products to partners, our traditional consumers, and we are ready to take all the actions available to us to that end, which we have repeatedly stated… But in order for the system to work, it’s necessary for all participants in the process to strive for results.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 \
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
 
At a security policy talk at his summer residence, Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto referred to the war in Ukraine. He said that both Russia and Ukraine were using heavier weapons than before. He alleged that Russia has been using thermobaric missiles, which were weapons of mass destruction. He also said that they were supplying Ukraine with the heavy weapons necessary to combat such heavy weapons.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 13 June, Amnesty International said that the attack through constant shelling on cluster munitions and the use of scattered landmines was tantamount to war crimes. After a 14-day-long investigation, Amnesty has found evidence that their relentless attacks on the city have resulted in the death of civilians. Ukraine maintains that 606 civilians have been killed in the region because of Russian aggression.

References

Samantha Lock, Léonie Chao-Fong, Richard Luscombe and Martin Belam, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 111 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022
Max Hunter, “
Russia destroys last bridge to Sievierodonetsk, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Pjotr Sauer, “
Fears grow for Sievierodonetsk civilians as plant struck and bridges destroyed,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022
Zelenskiy tells Germany to give Ukraine support, worry less about Russia,Reuters, 14 June 2022
Dan Sabbagh, “
Ukraine asks the west for huge rise in heavy artillery supply,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022
Kremlin pledges support after Donbas separatist leader calls for more Russian forces,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Population of Mariupol halved since beginning of fighting - Head of DPR,” TASS, 13 June 2022
Russia says it destroyed U.S., European weapons in eastern Ukraine,” Reuters, 13 June 2022
Russia won’t leave global food market — head of delegation at WTO forum,” TASS, 13 June 2022
Both sides using heavier weapons in war in Ukraine, says Finnish president,” Reuters, 13 June 2022
Amnesty says Russia guilty of war crimes in Kharkiv shelling,” Reuters, 13 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

REGIONAL
Stolenberg trusts Stockholm to address Ankara’s concerns 
On 13 June, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stolenberg stated that Sweden is ready to address Turkey’s concerns on its bid for NATO membership during his visit to Stockholm. Turkey has previously vetoed applications of Sweden and Finland to join NATO for supporting Kurdish militants in Syria. Stolenberg further stated that Sweden will ensure to amend their legal basis for arms exports to reflect their future standing as a NATO member with new commitments to allies. Earlier on 12 June, Stolenberg had visited Finland as well and mentioned that Turkey’s concerns are legitimate concerns on terrorism and weapons exports. (“NATO: Sweden prepared to address Turkey's security concerns,” Deutsche Welle, 13 June 2022)

Space telescope Gaia delivers new data on its mission
On 13 June, the European Space Agency’s space telescope Gaia released a new batch of data on stars, asteroids and distant bright constellations to map the galaxy. Gaia will scan over a thousand million stars to create the biggest and most detailed three-dimensional map of our Galaxy. In the latest data collection, Gaia indicated spectroscopy information as well in addition to the basic brightness and color details of the stars. Spectroscopy splits the light from stars into its component colors, revealing the chemical, temperature, mass, age, and velocity of the objects being studied. (Jonathan Amos, “Gaia continues quest for the ultimate sky map,” BBC, 14 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Ottawa and Copenhagen agree to share Hans Island
On 13 June, Canada and Denmark agreed to split a small deserted island in the Arctic, bringing an end to a nearly 50-year diplomatic dispute between the two countries. The government issued an order-in-council confirming the Hans Island agreement. Hans Island rises 180 meters above the cold seas that separate Canada and Greenland. Both nations are 18 kilometers distant from the island, giving them the legal right to claim the rock under international law. The island will be divided into two halves, one will be Canadian and the other will be part of Greenland. (Ashly Burke, “Canada and Denmark reach deal to divide uninhabited Arctic island,” CBC News, 13 June 2022)  

The Rwanda Plan to take off from 14 June
On 13 June, BBC explained the working and implications of the Rwanda Plan following the announcement of the first deportation flight to be taken off on 14 June. Some asylum seekers would be transferred to the Central African country during the five-year trial. It is said to be focused mostly on young migrants who come by "illegal, risky, or unnecessary means," such as small boats or vehicles. Rwanda has stated that the migrants will be entitled to full protection under Rwandan law as well as equal access to jobs and services. As part of the agreement, the UK would spend GBP 120 million in Rwanda's "economic development and growth." The government also stated that it will cover expenditures equivalent to those spent in the UK. (“How many people cross the Channel and how might the Rwanda plan work?, BBC, 13 June 2022)


13 June 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #226

Ukraine faces an ammunition shortage as the battle for the Donbas rages

Finland to provide military equipment to Ukraine amid NATO bid; Australia pays settlement to France for breach of contract; Macron unlikely to win an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections

Photo : Tyler Hicks-The New York Times


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Ukraine faces an ammunition shortage as the battle for the Donbas rages
On 10 June, a report by the Washington Post mentioned the rising concerns of Ukraine losing on the battlefield due to the acute shortage of ammunition. While Russia, on the other hand, has been increasing its firepower against Ukraine and has been outgunning Kyiv’s forces. According to Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence, Vadym Skibitsky, Russia was firing about 60,000 artillery shells and rockets daily. While Ukraine could only muster 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day with almost depleted stocks.

Four reasons for an ammunition shortage in Ukraine 
First, absorbing the West’s military equipment. Ukraine’s army has been facing shortcomings in absorbing the military supplies from the West, NATO, and the EU as they have not used them in their training exercises. For example, NATO’s supplies of 155-millimetre artillery shells have reached Kyiv, but the army faces logistical challenges in taking them to the frontline and firing the munitions. Ukrainian forces have received training to use the advanced military supplies, but the army does face issues while maintaining them.

Second, incompatibility issues. Ukraine has been dependent on Soviet weapons since the inception of the war. This made it difficult for the West to acquire Soviet-related ammunition to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, as the Warsaw Pact and NATO countries used different calibers of ammunition. Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, stated: “Relying solely on Soviet weapons was definitely a losing strategy.” 

Third, a delay in supplies. Even with the West, NATO, and the EU assuring weapons supply to Ukraine, the weapon system has been arriving too slowly to keep up with the war. Due to this delay in supplies, Ukraine’s armies are  facing more casualties in comparison to the initial days of the war. For example, the US-made HIMARS multiple-rocket launcher systems are on their way to Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian forces would have to first be trained to use them and thus, delaying its active deployment by a few weeks. 

Fourth, storing ammunition. The storage of ammunition, tanks, and other military supplies has not been carried out efficiently as Moscow has been targeting the incoming supplies from the West by airstrikes. Additionally, since the Ukrainian army is dependent on Soviet-era ammunition, if these supplies are not stored correctly, there is a higher chance of them turning into duds. The forces complained that the Czech-supplied rockets were faulty as they successfully fired only three out of 40 rounds. 

What lies ahead? 
The shortage in ammunition has shadowed Ukraine’s plans to take back the East. The shortcomings have also demoralized the army as the Ukrainian forces were being intimidated by Russia’s 24/7 shillings and artillery superiority. Knowing about Ukraine’s disadvantages, Russia has shifted its tactics to using close air support and dismounted infantry to tackle the Ukrainian forces more effectively. Russia has been able to regenerate its army as it refurbished its units, deployed new forces, and increased the age of the reserve force to enlist more men. Thus, the battle of Sievierodonetsk would be a turning point for both Russia and Ukraine.

References: 
Ukraine Reports Ammunition Shortage,” Voice of America, 11 June 2022
Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Andrew E. Kramer and Natalia Yermak, “Shortage of Artillery Ammunition Saps Ukrainian Frontline MoraleThe New York Times, 10 June 2022
Siobhan O Grady, Liz sly and Levgeniia Sivorka, “
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield,” The Washington Post, 10 June 2022
Alex Gatopoulos, “
The weapons being sent to Ukraine and why they may not be enough,” Al Jazeera, 17 April 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 108 & 109
By Padmashree Anandhan

War on the Ground
On 11 June the Ukraine forces reported on the continued shelling and damage incurred in the power lines of Donetsk region. It found that many cities including, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Bakhmut were facing power outage and “netblocks.” It reported a cut in the internet connectivity in Donetsk.

On 11 June, TASS Russian news agency reported that Russia has started providing passports to Ukraine people living in the Kherson and Melitopol to bring the cities under its control. Till now two dozen of Russian passports have been provided in Kherson and 30 in Melitopol. On this, the Ukraine authority and foreign ministry have called it a “flagrant violation of national sovereignty.” At the same, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency found that it had tracked down the passport forms from cities after Russia’s withdrawal. These documents were not in existence from 1990 and have been brought back from blueprints by Russia during the war as per the Ukraine intelligence.

On 12 June, the regional governor said that the Russian forces had launched four missiles at the military capacity located in Chortkiv, in western Ukraine, which injured 22 people. The governor of Luhansk said that the link between Ukraine and Sievierodonetsk can be cut down which might bring out the limitations of Ukraine's capacity. He also remarked on how Ukraine has been facing heavy causalities each day.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 12 June Russia’s defence ministry claimed that it had launched a missile strike on the military capacity of Ukraine destroying both the US and the UK's anti-tank and anti-missile systems. The for long-range weapons were recently doubled by the West. It also confirmed on destroying a “portable antiaircraft system and artillery shells.”

Russia celebrated 12 June as the day for declaring sovereignty and declaration of democratic reform in 1990. It remarked the day with fireworks, flags, and lights on iconic buildings. Apart from the celebrations, Russia also experienced protests from on its invading Ukraine. The protestors held a slogan stating “This is not our day,” outside the Russian army headquarters.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 11 June, the UK defence ministry reported that most of the Russian attacks had been focused in the east where Ukraine forces have out-stocked weapons. It observed that upon Russia’s announcement of building the bridge between Crimea, it began issuing passports to Ukraine people and Ukraine has been constantly asking not to take the passports under the terms of employment or any such needs. The ministry also found that although Russia’s precision missiles count had reduced it was possible for it to switch to more powerful weapon systems which are more destructive in nature.

On 11 June, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen met president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The visit focused on Ukraine’s application to the EU and evaluating the areas for joint cooperation, reconstruction, and progress of Ukraine in Europe.

In the analysis statement issued by the Institute for the Study of War: “Consistent with previous reports that Russian forced mobilization efforts are self-destructive and may result in mounting discontent and declining morale and discipline.”

On 11 June, Lithuania announced the opening of a cultural center for internally displaced Ukrainians. Till now it has welcomed more than 50,000 Ukrainians who have left Ukraine in war. Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis said: “so as long as a regime that intends to wage wars outside Russian territory is in place, the countries surrounding it are in danger.”

On 12 June, the Sweden military and the US Marines completed the drill in the Baltic Sea which is an important area for Sweden Island. According to the commander of  Sweden’s Gotland regiment, colonel Magnus Frykvall: “A lot of us thought that there wouldn’t be a need to defend Gotland after Soviet collapse. This has been put in a totally new point of view since the war in Ukraine in 2014, and it was even more clear to us with the current invasion.” The drill was held due to the growing fear of Russian aggression and was part of the annual exercise held between the US and Sweden with 26 warplanes and 2400 marines and sailors. It was called as Baltic operations involving Swedish troops and marines.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 11 June, the IAEA director-general, Rafael Mariano Grossi reported on the successful restoration of data between the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in the south and the International Atomic Energy Agency in Ukraine. The data transfer which was cut down by Russia for the past three months was not back on track.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un stated his support for Russia’s president Putin and the war in Ukraine. It is seen as a step further compared to other friendly states of Russia. North Korea is also among the states which abstained from voting on the UN resolution against Russia.

On 12 June, the UN commission inspected the Kyiv region to look into the war crimes committed by Russia. It has vowed to implement its first mission in Ukraine by June 16.

References
BBC Live Reporting,” BBC, 12 June 2022
Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 12 June 2022
What Happened on Day 108 of the War in Ukraine,” The New York Times, 11 June 2022
What Happened on Day 109 of the War in Ukraine,” The New York Times, 12 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Melenchon poses tough competition to Macron in the parliamentary elections
On 12 June, president Emmanuel Macron faces a tough struggle to win an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections after a close call with Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-green alliance- New Ecologic and Social Peoples Union (NUPES). The projections placed the NUPES bloc of Melenchon and Macron's Ensemble! Coalition neck-and-neck in the first round, with 25.61 percent and 25.8 percent, respectively. The voter turnout for the election was a historic low of 47.5 percent. (Paul Kirby, “French election: Left surge threatens Macron majority in France,BBC, 13 June 2022)

ITALY
Right-wing parties trying to be the future of the Italian parliament
On 12 June, Italy held its local elections which saw right-wing mayoral candidates likely to be victorious in major cities across the country. The elections are said to be a precursor to next year's parliamentary elections which might give the right-wing coalition, comprising the center-right Forza Italia and the far-right League and Brothers of Italy, the opportunity to convert the lead in the polls to actual votes with more than forty per cent of the Italian voters supporting them. 9 million eligible Italians across 26 provincial and regional capital voted in the local elections. Right-wing candidates are set to win in many of the cities like Genoa and Palermo whereas, in cities like Verona and Catanzaro, they performed poorly due to failure to agree on a common candidate. (Hannah Roberts, “Right-wing candidates set to make gains in local Italian elections: Exit polls,” POLITICO, 13 June 2022)

REGIONAL
Chancellor Scholz called on Bulgaria to let Northern Macedonia into the EU
On 11 June, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz exhorted Bulgaria to revoke its veto on North Macedonia's entry into the European Union. The talks for the EU ascension of Northern Macedonia were halted by Bulgaria due to the history of conflict between both nations. Scholz visited Sofia and Skopje to meet with both nations' respective leaders. Germany's support of the Western Balkan nation's ascension to the EU would boost Northern Macedonia's chance. Member states of the EU are willing to allow Western Balkans into the organisation.  According to Scholz, regional disputes are not insurmountable and can be resolved if the parties are brought together. Six Western Balkan states consisting of Northern Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo are at different stages of membership talks with the EU. (“Scholz urges action over North Macedonia EU bid,” Deutsche Welle, 11 June 2022)

New legislation on Northern Ireland protocol condemned for breaking international law
On 12 June, the Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis reiterated that the amendments made in post-Brexit trade arrangements will not break international law. The statement came following the head of Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party, Mary Lou McDonald who claims the revisions would breach international law. The amendment, which is set to take effect from 13 May, will have an impact on the existing Northern Ireland protocol, which was negotiated by the EU and the Boris administration post-Brexit. The agreement permits the Republic of Ireland to keep a de facto open border with the UK's Northern Ireland. One of the measures calls for customs inspections on products arriving from England, Scotland, and Wales in order to keep them out of the EU's single market. The majority of the inspections are likely to be withdrawn  in London. (“ Sinn Fein leader: UK about to break international law,” Deutsche Welle, 12 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Canberra to pay a settlement for breach of contract with Paris
On 12 June, Australia agreed to pay France's Naval Group EUR 555 million in compensation for breaking a submarine contract with Paris. In 2021, Canberra cancelled its 2016 agreement with France’s Naval Group to build a fleet of conventional submarines, this provoked anger and diplomatic issues in Paris. Canberra instead chose to build eight nuclear-powered submarines with the US and UK technology following its trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The prime minister of Australia, Antony Albanese stated that the broken french contract will have cost the country EUR 2.28 billion. (“Aukus: Australia to pay €555m settlement to French firm,” BBC, 12 June 2022)

New bridge opened between Russia and China 
On 10 June, Russia and China inaugurated the new cross-border bridge to promote trade and commerce between the two countries. The bridge connecting the city of Blagoveshchensk in Russia to the city of Heihe in China across the Amur river is over one kilometer long and cost 19 billion roubles. The bridge will shorten the travel distance of goods from China to western Russia by 1,500 kilometers and the vehicles will be tolled 8,700 roubles. (“Fanfare and fireworks to open Russia-China border bridge,” BBC, 11 June 2022)

Finland to send arms to Ukraine in the midst of NATO ambitions 
On 10 June, Finland announced that it would provide more defense aid to Ukraine in the middle of its aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Finland's defense minister Antti Kaikkonen said that Finland would send the equipment that Ukraine and its army need. Finland and Sweden decided to openly support Ukraine after Russia threatened them against their application for membership in NATO and violated their airspace. Finland is ready to contribute to the aid of Ukraine and the security of the alliance thereby showing its commitment to the principles of NATO. This might fasten the process of Finland's membership in NATO. Although their membership hasn't been finalized, the US has shown its full support for Finland's and Sweden's admission into NATO as well as being watchful of any security threats in both countries. If any threat to the security of Finland and Sweden may arise, the US will work with the countries to deal with them. (“Finland to send more military equipment amid NATO ambitions,” HelsinkiTimes, 12 June 2022)


11 June 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #225

War in Ukraine: Day 107

Photo : Ukrainian Airborne Forces Command/Handout/Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 107
By Rishma Banerjee

Was On The Ground
On 10 June, Ukraine's defence ministry spokesperson, Oleksandr Motuzyank said that Russia is searching for weak points in Ukraine's defences near Sievierodonetsk, along the  Siverskyi Donets River. This statement comes amidst continuous fighting in Sievierodonetsk. It must be noted that if Russia succeeds in capturing Sievierodonetsk and subsequently Lysychansk on the other side of the Siverskyi Donets river, they will have full control over the entire Luhansk province. Motuzyank also mentioned that the situation in Southern Ukraine was calmer than before.  However, the spokesperson for Ukraine's forces in the south, Nataliya Gumenyuk said that Russia had about 40 crores of missiles targeted at Ukraine, even though she did not reveal how she obtained this information. 

The mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boichenko issued a warning about the potential spread of deadly and contagious diseases like cholera in the city. Mariupol which saw intense fighting between Ukraine and Russia's forces has had unclaimed and uncollected corpses which increases the risk of diseases. Boichenko said that there has already been an outbreak of dysentery and cholera and that the city has been placed under quarantine. He has also requested the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross to establish a humanitarian corridor so that residents without centralized water, gas, and electricity supplies can be evacuated.

The governor of Mykolaiv, Vitaliy Kim, informed via the Telegram app that Ukraine has conducted its 11th prisoner swap with Russia, since the beginning of the war. In the latest exchange, they swapped five captives from Russia for four Ukrainians.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov addressed the issue of the death sentences of the two Britons and one Moroccan, who had fought against Russia, as a part of Ukraine’s army. He said: “At the moment, the trials you mentioned are being held on the basis of the legislation of the Donetsk People's Republic, because the crimes in question were committed on the DPR's territory.

Amidst increasing isolation by the West, Russia opened a new cross-border bridge with China. This bridge is to give an impetus in trade between the two countries and connects Blagoveshchensk in Russia to Heihe in China, across the Amur river. It is more than a kilometre long and as per the RIA news agency, cost around RUB 19 billion to build. 

The leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said that Ukraine’s fighters captured at the Azovstal steel plant will be put to trial by the end of the summer. He also mentioned that necessary documents needed for the trial were being prepared.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 10 June, the president of the European Union’s Parliament, Roberta Metsola, said that the parliament fully supports Ukraine’s EU bid. She mentioned this at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit.

The spokesperson to prime minister Boris Johnson said that Britain is condemning the death sentences levied on the two British nationals who were captured in the Donetsk People’s Republic. UK’s foreign secretary Liz Truss also spoke about the same issue and said that the act was a serious breach of the Geneva convention and that she will be speaking to Ukraine to secure their speedy release.

Germany’s health minister visited Lviv in Ukraine. He said that Germany will send medical aid to Ukraine, mainly in the form of prostheses, and the deployment of around 200 doctors. The minister also said that they will be setting up trauma centers specializing in treating burns and connecting some of Ukraine’s hospitals to a telemedicine service. Germany’s economy minister Der Spiegel announced that they are trying to revise their rules on arms export. This move is to make it easier for democracies like Ukraine to obtain German weapons while at the same time making it more difficult for autocracies to do so. A spokesperson from Germany’s government also addressed the death sentences of the foreign fighters in the Donetsk People’s republic and said that they were a “complete disregard for the basic principles of humanitarian international law.”

Responding to criticism that he faced for saying that it was important not to humiliate Russia, France’s president Emmanuel Macron said that France is unwilling to make concessions to Russia. A presidential official said that they want a Ukrainian victory, and for Ukraine’s territory to be restored. France’s Chief of the Defense Staff, Thierry Burkhard, initiated a phone call with Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. Reportedly, they spoke about the situation in Ukraine and in the Sahel region.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

The deputy chief of NATO, Mircea Geoana, addressed Sweden and Finland’s membership to the alliance at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit. He said that while he hoped that the two states could join NATO despite Turkey’s objections, he could not foresee any military threat for them from Russia.

References
Léonie Chao-Fong, Samantha Lock and Martin Belam, “
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 107 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 10 June 2022
Ukraine says Russia looks for weak points in Ukrainian defenses near key river,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Max Hunder, “
Cholera and other diseases could kill thousands in Ukraine's Mariupol - mayor,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Ukraine conducts 11th prisoner exchange with Russia,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Russia's Lavrov says Britons and Moroccan sentenced to death committed crimes in Donetsk,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Russia and China open cross-border bridge as ties deepen,Reuters, 10 June 2022
Nationalists from Azovstal to stand trial by end of summer — DPR leader,” TASS, 09 June 2022
European Parliament "firmly behind" Ukraine's EU candidate bid -President Metsola,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Alistair Smout, “
Britain, U.N. official condemn Donbas death sentences against British soldiers,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Jamie Grierson and Andrew Roth , “
Liz Truss speaks to Ukraine about Britons’ death sentences for fighting Russia,The Guardian, 10 June 2022
Alexander Ratz and Zuzanna Szymanska , “
Germany pledges medical aid to Ukraine,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Germany plans new arms exports rules, easier exports to Ukraine - Der Spiegel,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
Foreign fighters' death sentence shows Russia's disregard for rights, Berlin says,” Reuters, 10 June 2022
France in no mood to make concessions to Russia, presidency says,” Reuters, 11 June 2022
Russian, French military chiefs discuss situation around Ukraine,TASS, 09 June 2022
No signs of Russian threat to Sweden, Finland -NATO deputy chief,” Reuters, 10 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Prague’s finance minister sets its 2023 budget deficit target below this year’s plan
On 10 June, the Czech Republic’s finance minister Zbynek Stanjura stated that he would reduce the 2023 deficit to keep fiscal plans on track. This comes as the war in Ukraine has affected the economic growth of the Czech Republic. The country has increased its defence spending and allocated more funds for refugees. Stanjura said the country’s budget would be below the 2022 plan of USD 12.04 billion. He added: “So far, there hasn’t been a reason to change the priorities in the government’s programme, with the exception of trying to speed up raising defence spending to 2% (of GDP).” (Jan Lopatka and Jason Hovet, “EXCLUSIVE Czech minister plans lower 2023 deficit to keep fiscal plans on track,” Reuters, 10 June 2022)

FRANCE
Macron’s centrist bloc to win the parliamentary elections
On 10 June, the Ifop-Fiducial poll stated that incumbent president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc is set to win the parliamentary elections. The poll surveyed about 913 people and estimated that 44 per cent of them voted in favour of Macron, while 25 per cent voted for the left-wing “Nupes” bloc, and 22 per cent voted for the far-right Rassemblement National party. However, 54 per cent abstained from the vote. This comes as France is about to hold its parliamentary elections on 12 and 19 June. (“Macron’s bloc expected to win French parliament vote,” Reuters, 10 June 2022)

THE UK
Legislators plan on presenting the post-Brexit Northern Ireland bill on 13 June
On 10 June, the UK announced that the legislation would present a unilateral revision of the post-Brexit trade arrangements with Northern Ireland. This would be presented to the parliament on 13 June, risking a possible trade war and backlash from Brussels. In May, European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic stated that Brussels would respond to the UK’s decisions with all possible measures. The US, too, has been involved in the issue as House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi mentioned a possible halt of the US-UK trade deal if London proceeds with the legislation. (“Risking EU clash, Britain pushes post-Brexit Northern Ireland bill,” Reuters, 10 June 2022)

REGIONAL
Eurozone raises its interest rates by 0.25 per cent
On 10 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that it plans to raise the interest rates of the Eurozone for the first time in 11 years. This comes as the war in Ukraine has caused soaring inflation in the Eurozone. The ECB stated it would increase the interest rates by 0.25 per cent in July and plans on further increasing them by the end of 2022. The ECB further said: “High inflation is a major challenge for all of us. The [ECB] governing council will make sure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term.” (“Eurozone interest rates set to rise for first time in 11 years,” BBC, 10 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Belgium’s King Philippe publicly denounces racism in the colonial past
On 09 June, Belgium’s King Philippe lamented the colonial rule’s racism that was meted out in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He added: “This regime was one of the unequal relations, unjustifiable in itself, marked by paternalism, discrimination, and racism.” King Philippe is on a week-long visit to DR Congo and is set to meet with President Félix Tshisekedi. This was the king's first visit to Congo, and he reaffirmed his deepest regrets over one of the bloodiest colonial rules in Africa. (Emery Makumeno and Cecilia Macaulay, “Belgian royals in DR Congo: King Philippe laments racism of colonial past,” BBC, 10 June 2022)


10 June 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #224

Sievierodonetsk: The bastion of the east

Boris Johnson promises more house-ownership; Palaeontologists find remains of the largest dinosaur in Europe; Head of Paris police owns up to Champions League failure

Photo : BBC


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Sievierodonetsk: The bastion of the east
After the fall of Mariupol, the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk emerged as the next bastion for Ukraine. But, On 30 May, Russian troops entered the city through the eastern front while shelling the southern region of Sievierodonetsk. The city is strategically important for Ukraine and Russia as they both fight to decide the fate of the Donbas region. For Moscow, it would be a win to secure Luhansk and Donetsk, while for Kyiv, it would decide the fate of the war in Eastern Ukraine. 

The strategically important region of Sievierodonetsk
The region is at a geographical junction near the Donets river, in the Luhansk region on the border with Donetsk. It is also nine miles south of Russia’s border. Sievierodonetsk is one of the last cities of defence for Russia to take control of the Donbas region, after which it could focus more on Lysychansk and then eventually the Luhansk region. However, the Donets river remains a natural barrier for Russian forces to capture Lysychansk. For Ukraine, it is equally essential after Mariupol and could prevent Russian forces from achieving its goals of liberating the entire Donbas region. 

Russia’s endgame for the city 
First, a pivot to capturing Donbas. On 03 June, according to the UK’s defence ministry, Russia was concentrating its forces around Sievierodonetsk to capture the city and eventually take control of the Donbas region. Sievierodonetsk is the current administrative capital for Ukraine after the city of Luhansk fell to the Russians. Taking control of the city would push Russia’s line of capture further into the Donbas region, cutting off supplies for Ukrainian forces who were trying to win back control of territories. 

Second, the symbolic importance of the city. The city has always been a bone of contention for Ukraine and Russia since 2014. In 2014, Russia briefly held the city as it moved to take control of Crimea. Thus, winning the city again would revive the morale of the Russian forces, who had been receiving setbacks in its war since February. Moreover, the people of Sievierodonetsk majorly speak Russian, and victory over the city would reinvigorate Putin’s plan of liberating the people of Donbas. 

Third, securing the hinterland for the land corridor. Russia has already secured a land corridor and has control of the water supply to Crimea and the biggest power plant in Europe. But, securing Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk would give it more hinterland to set up its defenses and secure administration for a more extended period. This could help Russian forces push further south and east, encircling Ukraine. 

Ukraine’s strategies for Sievierodonetsk
First, a possible retreat. On 08 June, Luhansk’s governor Sergiy Gaiday stated that Ukraine’s troops might have to retreat from the city of Sievierodonetsk. He added: “No one is going to surrender Sievierodonetsk even if our forces have to fall back to better-fortified positions.” Fierce fighting continued as Ukrainian soldiers controlled the industrial zone and the surrounding settlements, but Russia’s 24/7 shelling has left the soldiers vulnerable. 

Second, a prolonged battle like Mariupol. The situation might prolong as the people of Sievierodonetsk or the forces do not want to give up on the strategic city. Mariupol held out for two months, three weeks, and five days, Sievierodonetsk, also an industrial town, could hold on for a more extended or a shorter period.

Third, a stalemate. With Russia controlling the residential parts of the city and Ukraine holding on to the industrial zone and a few settlements, there could be a likely stalemate. This comes as Ukraine plans to send fresh battalions to defend the lines with foreign fighters and equipment from the West. Thus, it is leading to a possible stalemate scenario as a new front of resistance by Russian forces just as they did in Kyiv for months. 

References: 
Patrick Jackson, “Sievierodonetsk: Zelensky ties fate of east Ukraine to battle for city,” BBC, 09 June 2022
Russian forces control most of eastern Ukraine’s Sievierodonetsk, governor says,” France24, 08 June 2022
Claire Parker, “What to know about Sievierodonetsk, the Ukrainian city Russia wants to capture,” The Washington Post, 04 June 2022 
Paul Kirby, “Donbas: Why Russia is trying to capture eastern Ukraine,” BBC, 26 May 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

The UK
Boris Johnson promises new provisions for home-ownership after no-confidence scare
On 09 June, prime minister Boris Johnson announced that he will be looking to create a high-growth, low-tax economy, that will allow everyone to buy their own home. This promise was mainly targeted at especially the young population and ones living in social housing, as the UK has reported declining rates of home ownership. Johnson said that he will also launch a review of the mortgage market so that low-deposit mortgages can be accessed. The announcement comes after his narrowly won no-confidence vote, amidst speculations that he might lose the party’s support as the Tory leader. However, economists stated their doubts that this promise looked doubtful, as tax revenue is likely to rise to its highest level since the 1940s. (Andy Bruce and William James, “In another reset, PM Johnson pitches plan for UK economy, housing,Reuters, 09 June 2022)

REGIONAL
ECB’s interest rates to see a rise in 11 years
On 09 June, the European Central Bank reported that they will raise the interest rates by 0.25 per cent in July. This is the first time in 11 years that interest rates for Eurozone are being increased. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, said that inflation will be elevated for some time and that the rise in interest rates will also require some time to be reflected. The latest Eurozone inflation was estimated at 8.1 per cent, but the governing council of the bank is aiming to bring it down to their target of two per cent over the medium term. (“Eurozone interest rates set to rise for first time in 11 years,BBC, 10 June 2022)

Spills of an unidentified substance detected in the Baltic Sea
On 09 June, it was reported that there has been a spill of an unknown substance in the Baltic Sea, along the coast of Sweden. The spill, which the coastguard says is not of mineral oil, is yet to be identified. The head of the coast guard investigation, Jonatan Tholin indicated that it could be a new type of fuel like biofuel. The spill initially covered an area of 30 sq. miles and was in both Swedish and Finnish waters. However, it was reported that by the later part of the day, the spill was no longer visible. (“Huge mystery spill detected in Baltic off Swedish coast,” The Guardian, 10 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Palaeontologists find Europe’s largest dinosaur so far
On 09 June, palaeontologists said that they have found fossilized bones of what may be the largest carnivorous dinosaur species to be discovered so far in Europe. These were found on the Isle of Wight in England. This dinosaur lived about 125 million years ago in the Cretaceous period.  Based on the bones of the back hip tail and some limp fragments palaeontologists have estimated that the dinosaur exceeded 10m in length. They have also said that it belonged to the Spinosaurus species, and is considered to be the longest known dinosaur predator. (“Europe’s largest carnivorous dinosaur found in UK’s Isle of Wight,” Aljazeera, 09 June, 2022)


09 June 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #223

Poland’s pregnancy tracking database renews debate on women’s rights to abortion

Photo : AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski


IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee

Poland’s pregnancy tracking database renews debate on women’s rights to abortion

Recent developments
On 03 June, Poland’s health minister, Adam Niedzielski signed an ordinance that will require doctors to register all pregnancies that they treat. This register had been in the pipelines since the beginning of 2021, but there were significant delays in its implementation of the same.
As per this new order, Poland will start maintaining a central digital database, which will require doctors to note down allergies, blood type, medications taken, and underlying medical conditions of any of their pregnant patients. A health ministry spokesperson, Wojciech Andrusiewicz said that this move is to improve the treatment available for pregnant women, as this registry will let any doctor in the state or the EU know if they can administer any type of medication or order tests like x-rays.

Gradual deterioration of women’s rights in Poland
Abortion was legalized in Poland in 1932 when the state was under communist rule. A woman could terminate her pregnancy, if it posed a risk to her health and life, or was the result of a criminal act. This law was further extended in 1956 when those “experiencing difficult conditions” were brought under the gamut of women who could request an abortion.              

However, since the end of the communist rule, Poland’s abortion laws have become increasingly restrictive. In 1993, the term “experiencing difficult conditions” was dropped from the law, and abortion was made legal for only those pregnancies facing a serious health risk, which were a result of rape or incest, or those where there was irreversible damage to the fetus. In 2020, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that abortion in cases of fetal defects was also unconstitutional, and by January 2021, the court’s ruling entered into force, after being published in the Journal of Laws.

Now with the introduction of the database, it is anticipated that the body autonomy of women will be compromised further. Poland is facing criticism for the new provision, and opposition MPs have termed the digital database as a "pregnancy register". Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk, a left-wing parliamentarian, and activist said: “Polish women no longer get pregnant for fear of being forced to give birth in any situation. The reasons for fear have just arrived…The pregnancy registry in a country with an almost complete ban on abortion is terrifying." 

What does this mean?
First, the effect of the strict measure on women. It might lead polish women to take up medically unsafe methods to terminate a pregnancy, or travel abroad to Germany, the Czech Republic, or other countries where the procedure is allowed. Since abortion of a fetus with congenital defects is not allowed, having to carry such a pregnancy to term often has severe effects on the mother’s mental and physical health. Doctors too are often unwilling to consider abortion, even if the pregnant woman’s life is at risk, fearing intense follow-up questioning and prosecution. The situation is even bleaker for the countless refugee women from Ukraine in Poland, who have been victims of sexual violence. While it is true that Poland allows termination of pregnancies that are results of rape, proving so must be a traumatic affair for the women who already are facing challenges due to their displacement and the war in their own state.

Second, the issue of privacy and agency. The primary fear about the new database is with regards to privacy and increased surveillance. Medical data can be given to the police or to state prosecutors which can lead not only lead to harassment, but also legal action by the state. While at home abortion pills or soliciting an abortion abroad cannot be pursued legally in Poland, anyone found helping a woman access this can face prosecution. This database might further exacerbate the atmosphere of intimidation that women wanting to terminate their pregnancies face.

Third, the renewal of my body is my choice debate. The ordinance for the database comes at a time when the US is also seeing protests against abortion rights. While many states in the US have strict anti-abortion laws in place, the overturning of the Roe v. Wade ruling that is expected in the coming weeks will render a federal ban on abortion in 26 states. Even in the 21st century, such policing of women’s bodies, especially in developed states, might herald an era of further regression in women’s rights. 
References
Vanessa Gera, “Poland, with near-total abortion ban, to record pregnancies,” Associated Press News, 06 June 2022
Outrage in Poland over new 'pregnancy register' on the back of near-total abortion ban,” Euronews, 07 June 2022
Carlo Martuschelli and Sarah-Taissir Bencharif, “Abortion rights in Europe vary widely — and are getting squeezed,” Politico, 03 May 2022

 


War in Ukraine: Day 105
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

War On The Ground
On 08 June, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned the fighting at Severodonetsk. He added that the fate of the war in Donbas would be decided in the city of Severodonetsk. Luhansk’s governor Serhiy Haidai stated that Moscow’s troops were facing significant losses and that it was impossible for Russia to control the city altogether. However, the governor was concerned about the 15,000 civilians at Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. 

As the fighting intensified at Severodonetsk, the governor assured that no one in the city would surrender but rather restrain Russian advancements towards the city. Severodonetsk is a strategic point in the conflict as it is crucial for both sides in the Donbas region. Ukraine estimates that Russia has about 120 battalions inside the country and nearly 40 of the battalions around the Severodonetsk region. 

On the same day, Ukraine’s nuclear state company Energoatom accused the UN’s Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of falsely using Kyiv’s name to visit the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Energoatom said they had not extended any request to IAEA to visit the plant, as it would then legitimize Russia’s presence there. 

Also, On 08 June, families of the soldiers who died in Mariupol said that they had received 160 bodies of the soldiers who were holed up in the city’s Azovstal steelworks. They claimed it was a part of a swap with Russia, but Moscow did not comment on the same. Zelenskyy had earlier mentioned that prison transfers would follow as more than 2500 defenders were held by Russia. 

On 08 June, Ukraine’s prosecutor, general Iryna Venediktova, stated that it had filed more than eight war crimes against Russian soldiers. Ukraine has already filed 16,000 investigations of war crimes against Russia since 24 February. However, Moscow denies the allegations that its troops had committed war crimes during the special operations. 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 08 June, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia was ready for an UN-mediated meeting with Ukraine in Turkey. This comes as Lavrov visited Istanbul and met with Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. However, Lavrov stated that the UN’s involvement would be more symbolic than having any substantiative outcomes. 

On the same day, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the unilateral sanctions placed by countries were illegal. The airspace closure for Russian airlines is illegitimate as it is against the 1944 Convention on international civil aviation provisions. She added that it had caused an increase in the cost of air tickets burdening passengers. She has raised her concerns with the international civil aviation organization. 

Also, On 08 June, Russia’s state tech corporation Rostec mentioned that its KUB and Lancet kamikaze drones were being deployed in Ukraine. Rostec said that the drones had proven their combat worthiness in Ukraine and had accurately covered tens of kilometers and hit targets. The Lancet drone has a range of 40 kilometers with a maximum 12 kilograms payload, while the KUB drone can carry a three kg warhead and accelerate to speeds of 130 kilometers per hour. 

Lavrov also discussed the prospects of allowing Ukraine to export its grains from the Black Sea port through Turkey. Turkey has been playing a crucial role as a center for trade, logistics, energy, and food exports. This would also help Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey counter the global shortage of grain exports. 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
 
On 08 June, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) released a report that the UK’s economy would suffer the most due to the conflict in Ukraine. The group forecasted the UK’s growth to initially grow by 3.6 per cent by then fall to zero per cent by 2023. Additionally, inflation is expected to stay at 8.8 per cent and reach 7.4 per cent by 2023. 

On the same day, the EU said it plans to lift sanctions against Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov and his two sisters. This comes as the businessman has launched a legal challenge at the European court of justice. His sisters, too, filed legal appeals to overturn sanctions that blocked their assets located in Europe. 

Also, on 08 June, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Zelenskyy and discussed the situation in Ukraine and his telephonic conversation with Putin. Zelenskyy and Scholz also discussed the possible ways for Ukraine to export wheat out of the country through sea routes. Ukraine also raised concerns about Russia’s treatment of prisoners of war. 

On 08 June, US president Joe Biden announced his travel plans to Germany for the G7 summit and Spain for the NATO summit. According to the White House, Biden will be discussing the war in Ukraine, the food crisis, and energy issues. 

On the same day, the arctic countries of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the US said that they would resume their work but without Russia. A joint statement released further mentioned: “We intend to implement a limited resumption of our work in the Arctic Council, in projects that do not involve the participation of the Russian Federation.” 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 08 June, a report by BBC stated that due to the war in Ukraine, there had been a renewed rush for fossil fuels making it the new gold rush. A Climate action tracker (CAT) report stated that the world would be at risk of irreversible warming if it did not work toward ending the use of fossil fuels. Countries have been shifting back to new fossil fuel infrastructure to meet their short-term energy supplies, but those short-term supplies would cause issues for the climate targets set. 

On the same day, the world bank stated that it had cut its annual forecast for global economic growth due to the significant recessions the country is facing. In addition, the World Bank said that eastern Africa and parts of Europe were majorly affected by the war in Ukraine. This could further induce stagflation like in the 1970s, where it would be a combination of high inflation and low growth. 

Also, on 08 June, Sudan’s farmers expressed their concerns about the failing crops due to the rise in fertilizer costs. The farmers were also cut off from international financing that helped their production costs. Sudan is also undergoing political instability and is now likely to face a humanitarian situation due to the war in Ukraine. 

References
Mariupol: Azovstal defenders’ bodies arrive in Kyiv - families,” BBC, 08 June 2022 
Why Ukraine is furious with the UN nuclear watchdog,” BBC, 08 June 2022 
Patrick Jackson, “
Severodonetsk: Zelensky ties fate of east Ukraine to battle for city,” BBC, 08 June 2022 
Troops will not surrender Severodonetsk, says governor,” BBC, 08 June 2022 
Dan Sabbagh,
Ukraine and Russia’ compete to be last army standing’ as Donbas deaths mount,” The Guardian, 08 June 2022
Russia ready for UN-mediated meeting with Ukraine, but it is to be symbolic — Lavrov,” TASS, 08 June 2022
Russian diplomat highlights illegitimacy of Western civil aviation sanctions,” TASS, 08 June 2022
Kamikaze drones successfully used in Russia’s special operation in Ukraine — defense firm,” TASS, 08 June 2022 
Press review: Russia faces issues in Asia pivot and seeks to nationalize Ukrainian assets,” TASS, 08 June 2022 
Kalyeena Makortoff, “
Decision on lifting EU sanctions against Alisher Usmanov and sisters expected soon,” The Guardian, 08 June 2022 
“Germany’s
Scholz fills Ukraine’s Zelenskiy in on Putin call -govt spokesperson,” Reuters, 08 June 2022
UK to be major economy worst hit by Ukraine war, says OECD,” The Guardian, 08 June 2022
East Africa faces ‘highest living costs in decades’,” BBC, 08 June 2022
Jonah Fisher, “
Ukraine war prompts fossil fuel ‘gold rush’,” BBC, 08 June 2022
Nafisa Eltahir, “
Sudanese farmers warn of failing harvests as hunger rises,” Reuters, 08 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan 

BELGIUM
Belgium King visit to Democratic Republic of Congo to revamp relations
On 08 June, Belgian King Phillippe scheduled a six-day visit to Congo in an attempt to take the relations forward after a brutal memory from history. Congo which was formerly under the colonial rule of Belgium between 1885 and 1908, under the rule million people were killed, forced to collect rubber, they died from disease and colonization. It was part of Belgium's empire until its independence on 30 June 1960. During Phillippe’s first visit to Congo in 2013, he returned the traditional mask to the ethnic Suku people as a gesture to heal the past. (“Belgian king meets veteran, returns Suku mask to DR Congo,” Deutsche Welle, 08 June 2022)

ESTONIA
Baltic leaders virtually meet the NATO chief to boost security on the eastern front
On 08 June, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that they will hold virtual talks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. The key discussion will focus on boosting the regional security and methods to up the NATO “defence and deterrence” mainly at the eastern front. The Baltic leaders pushed for a switch from NATO battalions to brigades in the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid. (“Baltic PMs to discuss regional security with NATO chief Stoltenberg,” The Baltic Times, 08 June 2022)


08 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #222

War in Ukraine: Day 104

Christian Schmidt allocates funds for Bosnia’s elections; Berlin releases draft on wind energy; Supreme court cracks down on corruption issues in Slovakia

Photo : Guardian graphic/The Institute for the Study of War


War in Ukraine: Day 104
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 07 June, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that there was no chance of Ukraine agreeing to a battlefield stalemate. They would rather aim to gain control of all of the territory that Moscow controls. Zelesnkyy said: “We have already lost too many people to simply cede our territory… We have to achieve a full deoccupation of our entire territory.”

The regional governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai, reported that Russians in Sievierodonetsk seem to have redoubled their efforts after Ukraine’s counterattack. He said that situation is evolving every day, till now Ukraine’s forces have been successful in holding Russia off.

On 07 June, Kyiv experienced renewed violence after a month of relative peace, Kharkiv too suffered a similar fate. The situation in the city had calmed down to a degree with the retreat of Russia’s forces. However, the local mayor, Ihor Terekhov, reported a Russian strike, which resulted in one person dying, and three getting injured. He also said that the people lived in constant fear.

On 07 June, adviser to Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and food, Markiyan Dmytrasevych said that thousands of mines infest the water near the ports in Ukraine. This comes as a blow to Turkey’s plans to coordinate the mass-scale supply of Ukraine’s grains to the global market. However, Turkey said that they have been able to make progress in their talks with Russia and Ukraine, about the same.

Ukraine's state nuclear company Energoatom condemned the IAEA’s plan to send a mission to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia power plant. It said that Ukraine had not solicited such a visit and mentioned how such a mission would further legitimize the presence of the occupiers in the plant and not acknowledge the acts of aggression by Russia committed at the plant. 

The Donetsk People's Republic, the separatist, pro-Russian faction in Ukraine reported that Ukraine’s forces have shelled the Petrovsky district in Donetsk with 15 millimetres of artillery, a weapon typically used by NATO states. The Russian-appointed administration in Kherson also announced that a Russian bank is all set to open a branch in the region. However, the head of the Kherson region’s “military-civilian” administration, Kirill Stremousov did not specify which bank it will be.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
 
On 07 June, TASS provided an update about the soldiers captured from the Azovstal Steel Plant, in Mariupol. The report said that more than 1000 soldiers were transferred to Russia for investigation. This comes amidst some Russian lawmakers suggesting that they need to be put on trial. While TASS did not report anything further on what would happen to the soldiers, there is a chance that this might further sour the chances of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu also referred to the rising food security crisis and said that the two ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, Berdyansk, and Mariupol were ready to start operations. However, he blamed Ukraine for the delay and said that they needed to determine the ways to the port, in order for them to be functional again.

The lower house of Russia voted on a bill that will further tighten the law against people. At its first reading, the bill was passed by 346 votes to 17, and introduced a new category of “persons affiliated with a foreign agent.” In other news, the parliament also passed two bills that will end the European Court of Human Rights’ jurisdiction in the country. As per the bill, 15 March has been set as the cut-off point. As a result, rulings made against Russia after that will not be considered.

The military prosecutor of Russia’s Western Military District said that Russia will be prosecuting 12 Russian officers for sending about 600 young conscript soldiers to Ukraine. He also mentioned that disciplinary measure has already been taken against them and that some officers have been dismissed from service.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 07 June, UK’s prime minister, Boris Johnson addressed his top officials and said that Ukraine should not accept a badly negotiated peace deal under any circumstances. He also said: “the world must avoid any outcome where Putin's unwarranted aggression appears to have paid off.”

The farming minister of the UK called to initiate an investigation into the alleged thefts of Ukraine’s grains by Russia. Victoria Prentis, the minister, said this while addressing a conference at the International Grains Council in London, and mentioned that these allegations were serious and should be looked into.

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz during his visit to Vilnius, spoke about Russia’s military capabilities. He said that given the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West, it will be difficult for Russia to maintain their military capability at the level at which they are operating now. In a meeting with Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nausea, Scholz also promised that Germany will be ramping up their military support to Lithuania, especially due to the Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and the resultant fallouts.

Germany’s former chancellor, Angela Merkel, recently commented that during her tenure, she had tried hard to prevent the situation in Ukraine from escalating. Referring to the 2014 Minsk Agreement, she further said: “It's a great sadness that it didn't work out, but I don't blame myself for not trying.” She also mentioned that she had been against the idea of Ukraine joining NATO for this very reason.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 07 June, UNICEF issued another warning about the situation in Somalia. The conflict in Ukraine and the blockades on Ukraine’s ports have intensified the global food security crisis. Somalia faces a bleak future with projections of a severe famine. The children’s agency said that the country already has 386,000 children with life-threatening malnutrition and only a third of the USD 250 million needed to stave off the famine has been raised so far. Rania Dagash, the deputy regional director of UNICEF said that in order to solve this crisis, the world needs to look away from the Ukraine crisis and act with immediacy.

The IAEA, UN’s nuclear watchdog said that the radiation detectors in the Chornobyl nuclear power plant’s exclusion zone were back. As per the data collected by the 39 detectors in the region, the radiation levels in the region are in line with the condition before the conflict.

The World Bank approved an additional USD 1.49 billion in funds for Ukraine. They said that this was to help pay wages for the government employees and the social workers. This additional fund increases World Bank’s total pledged support to over USD 4 billion. They also reported that this is being supported by guarantees from Britain, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Latvia, Italy, and the newly formed multi-donor trust fund.

A court in Fiji has ordered the removal of the Russian-owned superyacht that has been docked at Queens Wharf in Lautoka, since 13 April. It had been seized by Fiji, after they granted a US warrant which linked the yacht to Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov, who has been sanctioned. The Supreme Court said that the vessel has been costing the government dearly after it floated into the Fiji waters without any permits.

References
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 104 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 07 June 2022
“Zelenskiy says battlefield stalemate is not an option for Ukraine,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Russian assault on Sievierodonetsk redoubled after counterattack,” The Guardian, 07 June 2022
Fresh shelling of Ukraine's Kharkiv kills one –mayor,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Ukraine slams planned IAEA mission to Russian-occupied nuclear plant,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Plan to ship grain out of Ukraine dealt blow due to mines,” The Guardian, 07 June 2022
Turkey says working to agree Ukraine grain export plan,Reuters, 07 June 2022
Ukrainian forces shelled Donetsk with NATO 155-mm caliber artillery — DPR,” TASS, 07 June 2022
Russian Banks to Open Branches in Ukraine’s Occupied Kherson Region,” Moscow Times, 07 June 2022
More than 1,000 Ukrainian prisoners sent to Russia for investigation –Tass,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Russia says two Ukrainian ports ready to ship grain but Kyiv must demine coast,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Russian parliament votes to tighten "foreign agents" law,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Russian parliament votes to break with European Court of Human Rights,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Russia Prosecutes 12 Officers Over Conscript Deployments to Ukraine,” Moscow Times, 07 June 2022
Ukraine must not be pressured into a bad peace deal, UK PM says,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Maytaal Angel, “
UK seeks investigation into alleged Ukraine grain theft by Russia,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Sanctions prevent Moscow from retaining military capabilities, Germany's chancellor says,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
German and Baltic leaders agree to strengthen defence, Lithuanian president says.Reuters, 07 June 2022
Merkel says she doesn't blame herself for not trying hard enough for Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 June 2022
Widen gaze from Ukraine' to avert famine in Somalia, U.N. agency warns,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Chornobyl radiation detectors back online, levels normal –IAEA,” Reuters, 08 June 2022
World Bank board approves $1.49 billion in new funds for Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 June 2022
Russian superyacht in Fiji leaves for U.S. amid legal wrangling,” Reuters, 07 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

BOSNIA
International envoy Christian Schmidt allocates funds for upcoming elections
On 07 June, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s high representative stated that he had allocated USD 6.8 million to ensure the elections happen on 02 October. Issues arose when the government set a date for the elections but did not allocate the funds needed to carry it out. He added: “It is obvious to me that the planned allocation is neither sufficient nor implementable.” Serbian and Croatian politicians obstructed the decision on financing the elections as they were not extended exclusive rights through the election law. (“Bosnia’s international envoy imposes decision on financing general election,” Reuters, 08 June 2022; “Bosnian Envoy Imposes Funding Decision For Elections,” Radio Free Europe, 07 June 2022) 

GERMANY
Olaf Scholz promises a special fund to boost security in eastern Europe
On 07 June, German chancellor Olaf Scholz made his first visit to Lithuania for a discussion with the Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania leaders. The discussion focused on boosting the security of the eastern front, where Scholz pledged to allocate EUR 100 billion as a special fund to strengthen the armed forces. He assured to make Germany’s forces the best at the Europe and NATO levels. After the meeting, the Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda commented that with increasing levels of security and violation of international norms by Russia, there should be no space for dialogue or cooperation, or concession with Russia. He called it a terrorist state. (“Germany's Scholz vows to strengthen NATO's eastern flank,” Deutsche Welle, 07 June 2022)

Berlin accelerates its shift from Russian fossil fuels to wind energy
On 08 June, Germany’s economy and climate ministry stated that it would be presenting a package to expedite the expansion of wind energy. The law additionally gives the country a framework for the national standard for species protection assessment for the species that would be affected by the wind farms. According to the draft law, the wind farms would also have to contribute to financing the species protection. This comes as Germany aims to fulfill its 2030 goals of fulfilling 80 per cent of its electricity needs from renewable sources. (“Germany to introduce bill to accelerate wind energy expansion -document,” Reuters, 08 June 2022)

SLOVAKIA
Supreme court cracks down on corruption issues in Bratislava
On 02 June, Euronews reported on the surfacing of corruption issues in Slovakia as a man tasked to tackle corruption was himself found guilty. Slovakia’s court also upheld a conviction against Dušan Kováčik for accepting bribes. Kováčik was the former head of the elite prosecutor's office and was involved in releasing criminals and leaking classified information. With cases against high-ranking public officials coming to the forefront, analysts have called this a “groundbreaking” decision to “cleaning out the house”.(David Hutt, “Slovakia makes slow progress in tackling corruption,'' Euronews, 02 June 2022)

REGIONAL
Moscow and Ankara plan to export Ukraine’s wheat to Syria 
On 07 June, Russia’s and Turkey’s defence ministers discussed possible corridors to export wheat from Ukraine to Syria. Turkey’s defence minister Hulusi Akar spoke to Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu saying: “all measures that can be taken regarding the safe shipment of grains, sunflower, and all other agricultural products.” Akar added that Turkey was coordinating the efforts between Russia and Ukraine, but no formal agreement has been reached yet. Ukraine’s embassy reiterated that if the coordination did not consider Ukraine’s interests, it would be rejected by Kyiv. (“Russian, Turkish defence ministers discuss Syria, grain exports from Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 June 2022)

EU announced provision for a common phone charger for all electronic devices
On 07 June the EU provisionally approved the adoption of a common phone charger cable throughout the EU by 2024. It has planned to make a USB type-C charger as a uniform charger for all electronic devices from mobile phones, tablets, headphones, video game consoles, portable speakers, and laptops. The rule will be applicable to Apple and its devices, previously the company had argued in 2021 when the plan was initiated stating it will challenge innovation. Although it’s perceived as a bar to innovation, the EU seems to be sturdy on the decision as it aims to reduce electronic waste. It found that the ban on different varieties of chargers, it will cut down consumer costs by EUR 250 million and 11,000 tonnes of e-waste. (Tom Gerken, “EU sets date for common phone charge cable,” BBC, 07 June 2022)

EU proposes a new deal to impose equal minimum wages across the member states
On 07 June, the EU proposed an agreement to equate minimum wages given with the standard of living. Of the 27 member states, six states Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Italy, and Sweden which depend on “collective pay bargaining,” and do not follow minimum wages will be affected by the new deal. The EU estimated that one out of 10 workers were earning under the minimum wage, but with each country, the amount varied. At the highest range, Luxembourg has set the highest minimum wage at EUR 13.05 per hour, which is followed by Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium. In the lower range Bulgaria, followed by Hungary and Romania with EUR 2.19 per hour has been set as the minimum wage. (Paul Kirby, “EU deal links minimum wage to decent standard of living,” BBC, 07 June 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Ukraine lagoons and marine life are under threat due to the Ukraine war
On 07 June, Guardian reported on the damaging effect caused on the oceans and wetlands due to the Ukraine war. The Tuzly Lagoons national park on the Black Sea is known for being dug by environmentalists to ensure the flow of water bodies. They dug channels will be the path to numerous small fishes, which come to the lagoons for breeding. With the war in place, the digging cannot be done and the beaches are now being filled with mines to keep the Russian forces away. The digging has been in practice for the last 30 years and it was seen as a way to restore the marine life, environmentalists warn that this was only one affected area brought into light while many other wetlands have been impacted due to the continuity of war. Ukraine’s deputy minister of environmental protection and natural resources said: “Almost 400,000 hectares and 14 Ramsar sites [wetlands designated to be of international importance by Unesco] along the coastline and lower reaches of the Dnipro river are under threat.” (“Dead dolphins: how nature became another casualty of the Ukraine war,” The Guardian, 07 June 2022)


07 June 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #221

Partygate scandal comes to a halt as Johnson wins no-confidence vote | War in Ukraine: Day 103

Macron faces tough competition in securing votes of overseas territories; no-confidence vote against Sweden’s Justice Minister

Photo : Alberto Pezzali/Pool/Reuters


Partygate scandal comes to a halt as Johnson wins no-confidence vote
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

A watershed moment for Johnson
On 06 June, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson faced a no-confidence vote due to the partygate scandal held during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Partygate refers to the alcohol-fueled parties at Johnson’s Downing Street office as the UK was under strict COVID-19 restrictions. At the no-confidence vote, 41 per cent of lawmakers voted against Johnson while 59 per cent supported him. Thus, giving Johnson an impetus to continue as UK’s prime minister till the 2025 elections. 

Johnson further mentioned that winning the vote would help him unite the government and work towards strengthening the economy. He added: “I think it’s a convincing result, a decisive result and what it means is that as a government we can move on and focus on the stuff that I think really matters to people.”

Is this the end of the party gate scandal? 
The partygate scandal-related investigations have not ended as there were likely more events around Downing Street that have not been uncovered. But, Johnson can't face another no-confidence motion for 12 months under the Tory party rules, which gives him adequate time to prepare. Johnson was also able to play a crucial role in the War in Eastern Europe which led to him gaining favor from the Conservative party stalwarts. Moreover, the war in Ukraine diverted the people’s and the government’s attention toward Russia’s invasion and with the Queen's Platinum Jubilee celebrations, the partygate scandal has been shadowed. 

What lies ahead for Johnson
First, fissures within the party. The current no-confidence vote shed light on the previous votes against Margaret Thatcher in 1989 and Theresa May in 2018. Both resulted in a split and weakened Conservative party as oppositions within the party were brought to the forefront in the votes, even though both won the no-confidence voting. Similarly, in the case of Johnson, 41 per cent voted against him, which compared to May’s votes of 37 per cent was on the higher side. 

Second, domestic concerns. Johnson would have to now focus on issues with Brussels over Northern Ireland, COVID-19-related backlogs, and disruptions. Furthermore, rapidly increasing inflation of nine per cent has led to higher energy prices. The demand for affordable housing are issues that Johnson’s government would have to tackle. 

Third, reviving alliances. The war in Ukraine has given Johnson's government the opportunity to launch back the UK in Europe post BREXIT. The UK’s deployment of additional troops and equipment along NATO’s borders and its pledge of USD 1.6 billion hints toward the UK’s long-term plans for Europe. 

References
“UK’s Boris Johnson says 59% backing is a ‘decisive’ win,” Reuters, 07 June 2022 
Elizabeth Piper and Andrew Macaskill, “Damaged, UK’s Boris Johnson scrapes win in party confidence vote,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Boris Johnson to remain as UK PM after securing the backing of Conservative MPs,” Euronews, 06 June 2022
Simon Tisdall, “Boris Johnson is using Ukraine crisis to launch a British comeback in Europe,” The Guardian, 15 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 103
By Rishma Banerjee
 
The War on the Ground
On 06 June, the regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Gaidai said that the situation in Sievierodonetsk was again tipping in Russia’s favour. Amidst intense escalation, Ukraine had managed to launch a counterattack and reclaim some of the territories in the city. Gaidai said, that even though neither parties are willing to withdraw, Ukraine has enough forces to eventually repel the Russian troops. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the same issue saying that Russia might have a numerical advantage in Sievierodonetsk, but Ukraine too has “every chance” of fighting back. He also mentioned that the situation will become truly problematic for Ukraine if Russia manages to break through in the eastern region of Donbas.

The mayor of Mykolaiv city, Oleksandr Senkevuch said that after Kyiv, explosions were heard in the city. He announced this on his official Telegram channel.

The prime minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal informed that the government is working to officially recognize English as a language of business communication. He said that this will hopefully promote business development, help with their chances of an EU membership and attract more investments.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 06 June, the Interfax news agency reported that the US-backed broadcaster Radio Free Europe, also known as Radio Liberty has been fined RUB 20 million. This is because Radio Liberty refused to delete reports about civilian deaths, which Moscow alleges has fake information. Radio Liberty also had a website, which after a series of fines has now declared bankruptcy. The hearing of its appeal against bankruptcy is scheduled for 08 June. 

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree by which the families of the members of Russia’s National Guard who passed away in the Ukraine conflict will be given RUB 5 million as compensation. The National Guard also known as the Rosgvardia answers directly to Putin and was created in 2016 to combat terrorism and organized crime. 

The Kremlin expressed discontent about Bulgaria, Montenegro and North Macedonia closing their airspaces off to Russia, ahead of foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Serbia. It has been described by Moscow as a "hostile act.” The foreign ministry has blamed the West for this action, and Lavrov said that such an incident was "inconceivable" and "scandalous".

Russia’s interior ministry has placed investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov on the wanted list under an unspecified article of the criminal code. Soldatov, who is known for covering the Russian security agencies said on twitter that his bank accounts in Russia had been frozen too. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 06 June, a parliamentarian from Ukraine, Yevhen Yakovenko, was detained at Moldova’s border. As per the request of the International Criminal Police Organization, Yakovenko was placed in a detention centre. The Interpol has also said that the lawmaker was put on the list because of an accusation of bribery and corruption by Belarus. 

The US ambassador to Moscow, John J. Sullivan said that Russia should not consider closing the US embassy there. He said that given the situation of the world now, the two of the biggest nuclear powers should continue their diplomatic talks. Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov however said that while Russia is interested in bilateral talks with the US, given the current tension, such negotiations were ‘unlikely’.

The US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken spoke about the food-security crisis, and said that he has credible information that Russia has been “pilfering” grains from Ukraine’s stocks for profit. He possibly referred to an article by the New York Times which had forewarned about Russia doing a similar thing. Blinken said that this alleged theft was part of Russia’s scheme to destabilise Ukraine’s ability to export their crops.

A spokesperson from UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson’s office said that Johnson and Zelenskyy has spoken over the phone and provided a readout of the call. The two leaders discussed the rising food security crisis and about how to deal with Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s grains. 

Italy’s foreign ministry issued a statement about Moscow’s accusations against Italian media. They have summoned Russia’s ambassador, as a protest against the allegation. The statement rejected the “insinuations” about their involvement in an “anti-Russian campaign.”

 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 06 June, Charles Michel, the president of the European Council addressed the UN Security Council and blamed Russia for exacerbating the global food security crisis. He also alluded to Russia’s troops committing war crimes, especially perpetrating sexual violence in Ukraine, describing it as a “tactic of torture, terror and repression.” In response to these allegations, Russia’s UN ambassador staged a protest by walking out of the meeting. He later told Reuters that he could not stay because of the lies that Michel was distributing.

A United Nations Commission cited the conflict in Ukraine to make a projection about poverty in Latin America and Caribbean. The study, published by UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) said that poverty in these regions will rise to 33 per cent, which is a 0.9 per cent increase from 2021. They also issued a warning about the food security crisis, and that a “speedy recovery” looks unlikely. 

UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is sending a mission to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been under Russia’s control. Ukrainian workers in the plant are working under Russian orders, which IAEA says is a definite health risk. 

References
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 104 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 07 June 2022
Ukraine's position has 'worsened a little' in Sievierodonetsk fighting,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Russia says it will push Ukrainian forces back to defend against longer-range weapons,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Ukraine has 'every chance' to fight back in Sievierodonetsk, Zelenskiy says,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Explosions heard in southern Ukraine city of Mykolaiv, mayor says,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Ukraine may give English status of business language -prime minister,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Léonie Chao-Fong, Martin Belam and Samantha Lock, “Russia-Ukraine war latest: Sievierodonetsk sees ‘fierce street fighting’; Zelenskiy says peace talks ‘at level zero’ – live,” The Guardian, 07 June 2022
U.S. broadcaster Radio Liberty fined $325,000 in Russia for 'fake news' – Interfax,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Russia to pay £65,000 to families of national guards killed in Ukraine or Syria,” The Guardian, 06 June 2022
Russian foreign minister cancels Serbia visit after neighbours close airspace,” The Guardian, 06 June 2022
Russia puts investigative journalist on wanted list,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Ukrainian lawmaker detained at Moldova's border,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Don't close the embassy, U.S. ambassador tells Russia,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Blinken says reports Russia is 'pilfering' Ukrainian grain for profit are credible,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
UK's Johnson and Ukraine's Zelenskiy discuss ways to end blockade of Ukraine’s ports,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Italy summons Russian ambassador over media coverage criticism,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Russia's U.N. envoy storms out of Ukraine meeting over European statement,” Reuters, 07 June 2022
Latin America, Caribbean 2022 poverty seen higher as Ukraine war bites -UN study,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
IAEA chief working on mission to Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” Reuters, 06 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

FRANCE
Tough competition between Macron and Melenchon in France’s overseas territories 
On 06 June, according to a report by Reuters, France’s incumbent president Emmanuel Macron has been pushing to attract the votes of French voters overseas. 11 of the 577 seats in the parliament are reserved to represent the overseas voters. Even though it is a small number of seats, Macron and the left party led by Jean-Luc Melenchon will face intense competition to attract the voters. This comes as France holds its legislative elections in two rounds on 12 June and 19 June, but voting overseas will take place on 18 and 19 June. An IFOP poll also mentioned how Melenchon’s NUPES coalition would also give a strong competition to Macron’s Ensemble. (Layli Foroudi, “French overseas legislative vote points to duel between Macron and left,” Reuters, 06 June 2022) 

GERMANY
Mercedes Benz recalls one million sold cars to check for brake defect
On 06 June, Mercedes-Benz announced that it will get in touch with its owners as it found the breaks to be damaged by “advanced corrosion.” In the recall, it is expected to bring back 993,407 vehicles, of which 70,000 includes from Germany. Due to the problem, it expects the hard braking to create a mechanical problem or the “brake booster.” Similarly, the company had a recall earlier to fix the “eCall defect. Since 2018, as per the EU rules eCall system in cars been mandatory which sends an alert and location for an emergency in case of an accident. (“Mercedes recalls almost 1m cars over faulty brakes,” BBC, 06 June 2022)

SWEDEN
No-confidence vote against justice minister Johansson 
On 07 June, the no-confidence vote against the minister Morgan Johansson is said to not work out as the member of parliament Amineh Kakabaveh announced that she would refrain from voting on the motion. This would lead to a shortage of the required 175 votes to topple the minister and the government. The no-confidence motion was launched by Sweden’s center-right opposition parties against the minister for falling short of tackling gang crimes, waves of shootings, and murders. (“Swedish government likely to survive justice minister confidence vote,” Reuters, 06 June 2022)

THE UK
Welsh Government calls for action to counter racism
On 07 June, the Welsh government announced a new plan to counter racism in Wales. It first aims to surface, tackle institutional and systemic racism inside government by 2024, and later rework on the set goals and actions. The plan was drafted by a group of people who were selected from six various areas of racism experiences, the areas include “racism in everyday life, when experiencing service delivery, in the workplace, in gaining jobs and opportunities, the experience of a lack of visible role models in positions of power and the experience of racism as a refugee or asylum seeker.” According to the social justice minister Jane Hutt, the group is determined to ensure the plan does not stay a plan and becomes an action for minority people. (“'Call to action' to be anti-racist by 2030 - Welsh government,” BBC, 07 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
New trials on fishing methods to avoid damage to the seabed
On 07 June, scientists from the southwest of England found lobsters and crabs to be attracted to lights. In a project with the fisherman, they used the lights as bait to catch the fish and new methods such as “modified pots dubbed scallop discos,” for fishing. If the experiments succeed, the method could be an alternative to stop the damage to the seabed for scallop hunting. (“Orkney part of 'scallop discos' fishing trial,” BBC, 06 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
UN leaders meet in Germany to discuss bringing the focus back to climate change
On 06 June, in the climate talks held in Bonn, Germany, the UN urged the countries to focus and “redouble” their work towards the prevention of environmental disasters. According to the UN's Climate Change head, Patricia Espinosa: “I appeal to all of you — especially in these difficult and challenging times — not to lose hope, not to lose focus, but to use our united efforts against climate change as the ultimate act of unity between nations.” She highlighted how the world is coping in the midst of the Ukraine crisis, food shortage, shooting energy prices, and pandemic recovery and stressed on moving forward toward climate promises. The upcoming COP27 which is scheduled to take place in Egypt will focus on bringing the promised plans to action. As per the conference in Bonn, the key issues will focus on supporting low-income and developing countries to come out from the effects of climate change. (“UN urges 'quick' negotiations at start of climate talks in Germany,” BBC, 07 June 2022)


06 June 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #220

Bulgaria’s and Croatia’s accession into the Eurozone

Photo : Reuters/Yara Nardi/File Photo


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Bulgaria’s and Croatia’s accession into the Eurozone

On 27 May, Bulgaria’s coalition government approved the country’s plan to join the Eurozone by 01 January 2024. However, their attempt to join the zone has been shadowed by political uncertainty and the coalition government’s issues toward joining the Eurozone. Croatia, on the other hand, plans to become the 20th country that adopts the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) stated that Croatia had cleared the economic criteria to join Europe’s single currency. Croatia is set to join the bloc by 01 January 2023. 

Roadblocks ahead 
Concerning Bulgaria, the country is likely to have setbacks in achieving its goal to join the Eurozone by 2024. This is because the country’s inflation has averaged 5.8 per cent, which is above the maximum limit of 4.9 per cent. Additionally, Bulgaria is falling short on its legal governance and structural reforms. It does have an advantage compared to Croatia, as its government’s debt is below the recommended 60 per cent of its GDP. 

Bulgaria’s socialist and populist parties have been calling for a more measured approach to the Euro’s implementation. Chairman of the parliamentary finance committee Lubomir Karimanski highlighted that the party wanted to make people aware by organizing “a large-scale information campaign, certain criteria must be met, the benefits and risks must be defined.” Corruption is another factor that Bulgaria has to curb to meet the nominal criteria for joining the Eurozone.

Croatia would not have issues joining, but it would become the below-par level country in the bloc due to its GDP per capita of USD 14,000 in 2020, while the other countries of Greece and Latvia, also considered as sub-par economies, have a GDP per capita above USD 17,500. Croatia does not have inflation challenges but does have a government debt equal to 7.98 per cent of its GDP. 

Consequences of Bulgaria and Croatia joining the Eurozone 
Bulgaria’s Pro Russian nationalist party leader Kostadin Kostadinov stated that the consequences of joining the Eurozone would have negative connotations for Bulgaria’s economy. He added that the Euro adoption would lead to double-digit inflation, reduced salaries, income, and savings. But, for Croatia, it would benefit the country as tourism contributes to one-fifth of its economy. Croatia is also planning to join the Schengen border-free travel zone, encouraging tourists from Western Europe to traverse across freely. 

Joining the Eurozone has its own drawbacks: the countries have to adopt standard economic policies, establish joint institutions to coordinate monetary and economic policies and follow a uniform trade policy for non-member countries. Moreover, once Bulgaria and Croatia join the bloc, they would be equally susceptible to economic shocks such as the European debt crisis. 

EU’s Eurozone strategy in reintegrating the Balkans
The war in Ukraine has shifted Europe’s attention to its Balkan states and is looking to integrate countries through the EU’s enlargement process. With Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia applying for EU membership, it is evident that Europe is looking to push for a more homogenized European identity. However, the Balkan region specifically faces resistance to Europeanisation due to strong ethnic differences and the ongoing issues of migration. 

Thus, the Eurozone could be seen as an economic strategy to reintegrate the Balkans. The Eurozone membership of the two countries aligns with the EU’s Economic and Investment Plan (EIP) of EUR 30 billion for 2021-2017 to increase cooperation within the region. In addition, China has been pivoting toward the geostrategic region through its 16+1 initiative. This comes as China has invested about USD 9.1 billion in loans and plans to sign more comprehensive strategic partnerships with countries to foster bilateral relations. 

References
Krassen Nikolov, “Bulgaria’s eurozone accession debate split along Macedonian veto lines,” Euractiv, 03 June 2022
Slav Okov, “Political bickering in Bulgaria poses obstacle to euro goal,” Bloomberg, 03 June 2022 Martin Arnold, “Croatia given green light by ECB to join euro in January,” Financial Times, 01 June 2022
Convergence Report reviews Member States’ preparedness to join the euro area and paves the way for Croatia’s euro adoption on 1 January 2023,” European Commission Press Release, 01 June 2022 
Bulgaria sticks to plan to adopt the euro in 2024 amid coalition squabbles,” Reuters, 27 March 2022 
B Rahul Kamath, “Why the Western Balkans matter to the European Union?,” ORF, 22 October 2021


War in Ukraine: Day 99
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 05 June, after more than a month of relative peace, explosions rocked Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and hit a rail car facility. Ukraine’s army and the railway chief said that the attacks were done through missiles fired from the Caspian Sea.
 
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his nightly address spoke about his visit to Lysychansk, and Soledar cities. These two cities are close to Sievierodonestk, where the Russian aggression has been concentrated in, for the last few days.
 
On 04 June, Zelenskyy reported that a Russian artillery attack had destroyed part of the Svyatohirsk Lavra monastery complex, which belongs to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. He also shared footage of the same on his official Telegram challenge. However, Russia has denied the reports and their involvement in the same, accusing Ukraine instead.
 
The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai said that Ukraine’s forces have been successful in reclaiming 20 percent of the territory that had been lost to Russia in Sievierodonetsk. This is significant because it comes after a heavy counter-attack was launched by Ukraine, following Russia’s concentrated attack to capture the city. However, Gaidai also reported that Russia was blowing up bridges across the Seversky Donets river. He observed that this might be an effort to block Ukraine from calling in reinforcements and to prevent a quick retreat to Lysychansk, a city on the other side of the river.
 
Ukraine’s Interior minister, Denys Monastyrskiy said that the intelligence services were communicating with the fighters who surrendered at the Azovstal steelworks. He mentioned that they looking into all avenues to ensure their speedy release, even though Russia wants to try them as war criminals.

 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 05 June, in an interview broadcast, President Vladimir Putin issued a warning to the US about their plans to send Ukraine longer-range missiles. President Biden recently announced that the US will be sending M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, after receiving assurances that these weapons will not be used against Russia. But Putin said that the US can expect a strong response from Russia if they plan to go through with their promise.

The website for the ministry of construction, housing, and utilities in Russia seemed to be hacked and was reportedly being redirected to a "Glory to Ukraine" sign in Ukrainian. The state news agency, RIA said that, in spite of the breach, the users’ data has been protected.
 
Major General Roman Kutuzov, a high-ranked official in Russia’s army was killed in eastern Ukraine. This was reported by a state media journalist but nothing was mentioned about precisely how, where on when the general was killed.
 
On 04 June, in a brief interview, Putin spoke about Russia’s anti-aircraft forces. He said that they have been successful in shooting down ‘dozens’ of Ukrainian weapons, and are "cracking them like nuts.” But, no clarification was received with regards to what kinds of weapons he might be alluding to.
 
On 04 June, Russia’s defence ministry reported that they have shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane that was carrying weapons and munitions. This incident took place near the Black Sea port of Odesa. Another outpost in the Odesa region, with foreign mercenaries, was also destroyed by a strike. They also updated that an artillery center in the Sumy region has been struck.

 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 05 June, in a statement, Austria’s chancellor, Karl Nehammer said that the EU should make provisions for membership for Ukraine and Moldova. He suggested a preparatory space be made which will be an intermediate stage between cooperation and full membership. He said that amidst this war, a full quick accession is not possible, but provisions must be made so that a “strong, independent and economically successful” Ukraine can survive.
 
Despite Putin’s warning to the US of a strong response, UK has declared that they will be sending long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine. They will supply handful of tracked M270 multiple launch rocket systems, which can hit targets 50 miles away. Spain is also looking to ramp up their support for Ukraine. According to El Pais, they have pledged anti-aircraft missiles and Leopard battle tanks. They will also be providing training to Ukraine’s military on how to use these tanks.
 
On 04 June, France’s president Emmanuel Macron said that he is confident that they can play a significant role in mediating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine once the active fighting stops. In an interview with the regional newspapers, he said: "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means." Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba however responded to the same comment and said that anyone saying that they should not humiliate Russia was only humiliating themselves. He said: “Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it… Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives."
 
After a meeting with the MED5 group in Venice, the Interior minister of Cyprus said that the Mediterranean countries which fall on major migrant routes will be expecting more than 150,000 arrivals from Africa and the Middle East, this year. According to the UNHCR, last year there were 123,381 migrant arrivals, but this year, the countries are expecting a rise in the numbers. This is primarily because of the food shortages caused by the conflict in Ukraine.  

 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 04 June, Pope Francis said that he is preparing to meet officials from Ukraine, to discuss the logistics of a possible visit to the county. Ukraine’s ambassador to the Vatican, Andriy Yurash, however, mentioned that he is yet to receive any communication about the same.

On 03 June, Senegal’s president Macky Sall spoke about his conversation with president Putin. He mentioned that Putin seemed to be willing to ease the process of exporting Ukraine’s grains to the world. Sall, who currently serves as the chairman of the African Union has been talking to Putin about grain export, amidst a rising food security crisis in Africa. He, however, did not mention if Putin attached any conditions to allow the vessels to leave Ukraine.

References
Maya Yang and Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 102 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 05 June 2022
Samantha Lock and Martin Belam , “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 103 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 06 June 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Max Hunder , “Kyiv rocked by blasts from Russian cruise missiles, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 05 June 2022
Bogdan Kochubey “Ukrainian President Zelenskiy travels close to front-line near Sievierodonetsk,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Ukraine has retaken about 20% of territory lost in Sievierodonetsk, regional head says,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Russia is blowing up bridges in Sievierodonetsk to thwart Ukrainian reinforcements, regional governor says,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Russian artillery hits monastery in Ukraine's east, says Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Ukraine's intelligence in communication with captured Azovstal fighters, minister says,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Putin warns United States against supplying Ukraine longer range missiles,” Reuters, 05 June 2022
Russian ministry website appears hacked; RIA reports users data protected,” Reuters, 06 June 2022
Russian general killed in eastern Ukraine, Russian state media reporter says,” Reuters, 05 June 2022
Russia says it shoots down Ukrainian military plane with weapons,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Putin says Russian anti-aircraft forces 'cracking' enemy weapons 'like nuts',” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Austrian Chancellor calls for intermediate EU membership for Ukraine,” Reuters, 05 June 2022
Russia must not be humiliated despite Putin's 'historic' mistake, Macron says,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Europe's south expects over 150,000 migrant arrivals this year, minister says,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Philip Pullella, “Pope says he will meet Ukraine officials to discuss possible trip,” Reuters, 04 June 2022
Senegal leader says Putin showed readiness to free up Ukrainian grain exports,” Reuters, 04 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan 

TURKEY
Turkey to produce high-tech drones with laser capabilities
On 04 June, Turkey announced the mass production of “miniature munition” to install in the unmanned aerial vehicles. The munition will be produced by TUBITAK a Defense Industries Research and Development Institute (SAGE). It carried out various tests to integrate into Bayraktar TB2 aerial vehicle. According to the manager of the company: “Mass production of the institute’s first UAV munition Bozok has started, we have developed the penetrating warhead for Bozok. We’re going to have some related firing tests.” The Bozok will be a compact, lightweight, and semi-active laser seeker in comparison with other Turkey drones. (“Turkey starts mass production of laser-guided munition for its drones,” P.A Turkey, 05 June 2022)

CLIMATE
COP26: Glasgow summit promised climate goals to show the weaker contribution
On 05 June, BBC reported on how countries were performing on the set goals in the COP26. At the Glasgow climate summit, all the countries agreed to provide their climate plans to cut down carbon emissions. This was done to ensure the global temperature was kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius but in the post-pandemic recovery the temperature was on the increasing range. Till now only 11 countries have submitted their climate plan out of 196 countries. Since the COP26 meeting, China is observed to have taken a maximum effort to reduce carbon emissions. One of the key steps taken by China is stopping the funding to “coal-fired power projects.” Such efforts are predicted to contribute 27 per cent to world emissions. (Esme Stallard, “COP26: Are nations on track to meet their climate goals?,” BBC, 05 June 2022)

SPORTS
Rafael Nadal wins the French Open
On 05 June, Spain tennis player Rafael Nadal won the French Open claiming his 14 titles and defeating Norway’s Casper Ruud. In the overall ranking, he will move two steps ahead of Rodger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Since 2010 Nadal has won back to back in the Australian Open, and French Open. After the win, Nadal said: “It takes a lot of energy to keep going. I want to say 'merci, merci beaucoup, I don't know what will happen in the future but I will keep fighting to keep going.” (Jonathan Jurejko, “French Open: Rafael Nadal beats Casper Ruud for 14th Roland Garros title,” BBC Sport, 05 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Germany’s economic minister to visit Israel and the French Minister hold talks with UAE for energy cooperation
On 05 June, Deutsche Welle reported on the four-day tour of Germany’s economic minister Robert Habeck to Israel. During the minister’s trip, the discussion with Israel will focus on three fronts, energy and climate cooperation, “high-tech” collaboration, and the purchase of “Arrow 3 missile shield system.” The key reason to hold talks with Israel is to find alternate energy to Russian imports. Israel can be a potential supplier to Europe as it holds the Leviathan gas field located in the Mediterranean Sea which has the capacity to produce 12 billion cubic meters per year of gas. Apart from this it also has an underwater pipeline to supply gas to Turkey and southern European countries. At the end of the trip, Habeck is expected to hold a joint conference with the Middle East and North African states. The conference will focus on intensifying cooperation on the energy fronts and solar energy. French foreign minister on the same lines held talks with UAE on receiving oil and diesel. He said: “We have to find an alternative to Russian petrol.” (Jens Thurau, “German Economy Minister Robert Habeck seeks new partnerships with Israel and Jordan,” Deutsche Welle, 05 June 2022; “Le Maire: France in talks with UAE for Russia oil alternatives,” POLITICO, 05 June 2022 )

British Council find no trace of racial discrimination in the investigation against worker complaints
On 06 June, a British Council officer in Kenya has come under criticism for disregarding complaints relating to “racial discrimination and harassment.” According to a regional head, the workers had reached out to the government about mistreatment to bring down the reputation of the Council. At the same, the British Council has launched two individual investigations to look into the complaints of the staff. In the investigation report, the Council stated that it found no hints of racism but it agreed on the existence of employee relations and operations. In the statement released it said: “has concluded that there was no evidence of racial discrimination, bullying or harassment as complaints raised against staff members could not be substantiated.” (Sebastian Whale, “British Council criticized for handling of discrimination complaints in Kenya,” POLITICO, 05 June 2022)


04 June 2022, Saturday | #219

NIAS Europe Daily Brief

Photo : Raigo Pajula/AFP/Deutsche Welle


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

ESTONIA
Estonia's Prime Minister to hold talks to maintain a majority in parliament
On 03 June, Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas removed the former coalition parties from the government. Kallas removed the centre-left Center Party as it supported the far-right opposition EKRE party for blocking the reform on primary education. She said: “Estonia needs a functioning government based on common values now more than ever. The security situation in Europe does not give me, as prime minister, the possibility of continuing cooperation with the Centre Party.” Therefore with half of the Cabinet members removed, Kallas now plans to hold talks for power-sharing with center-right Christian Democrat Isamaa party and the SDE Social Democrats to ensure a majority in the parliament. It is a risky scenario as the government must be in place before she meets with UK prime minister Boris Johnson. (“Estonia: Governing coalition collapses,” Deutsche Welle, 03 June 2022)

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
Dublin Airport under criticism for poor queue management
On 03 June, BBC reported on the recent confusion arising in the Dublin Airport which has made close to 1400 passengers to miss the boarding. This has led the Dublin Airport Authority to bring new measures, increase staff, and security lanes to better the queue management. The major issues to poorer queue management were, understaffing, competitive labour market, cancellation of raft and mainly staff shortages. The queues and disruption have questioned the impact behaviour of the passengers and the capacity of the airport staff. (“Dublin Airport: What's causing delays and what's being done?,” BBC,  03 June 2022)

RUSSIA
BBC interviews a return Russian soldier from the front lines
On 03 June, in a BBC interview with a returned Russian soldier from the front lines found that many soldiers are refusing to go back to war due to harsh experiences. According to the anonymous Russian Soldier, the reason for military drills the soldiers were sent to the front lines of the war against Ukraine. The Russian said that they did not expect Russia to be less equipped without “basic equipments,” helicopters and trenches. Troops were also not expecting Ukraine to give back a  strong counter and heavy shelling against their attacks, the Russian highlighted the limitations in the weapons logistics. On the question of Russian military law, the soldier said that the Russian law does contain provisions which allow soldiers to relieve themselves from fighting if do not wish to. As far as the interviewee is concerned, he returned with a letter stating “morally and psychologically exhausted,” but then he reported that higher commanders engage in intimidating acts on soldiers to make them stay. On the last question on prosecutions, the Russian responded by saying that he was not aware of such practice. (Olesya Gerasimenko and Kateryna Khinkulova, “The Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine,” BBC, 03 June 2022)


03 June 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #218

The weaponization of wheat | Russia-Norway: Nuclear safety | War in Ukraine: Day 98

Protests by France's diplomatic corps; EU passes sixth package of sanctions; Top three arms producers of France accused

Photo : Atlantic Council/US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service


The weaponization of wheat as the war in Ukraine continues 
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

On 01 June, Pope Francis addressed the people on the worsening global food crisis accentuated by the war in Ukraine. He mentioned how grain could eventually be used as a “weapon of war” and called on the authorities to lift the blockade imposed on Ukraine’s grain exports. Pope Francis has been condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but this was the first time he emphasized on the global food crisis as Kyiv and Moscow are the largest wheat exporters to countries in Africa and the Middle East. Russia and Ukraine account for about 29 per cent of the world's wheat exports. 

Negotiating the wheat crisis
The UN has proposed to release Russia and Belarus from sanctions on their fertilizer exports if Moscow unblocks Ukraine’s grain exports through the Black Sea. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres mentioned that the UN urged the West and Russia to show “goodwill on all sides” to control the global food crisis. 

However, on 28 May, Putin, on a call with France’s president Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s chancellor Olaf Sholz asked the West to remove all the “biting sanctions it slapped on Moscow after its invasion.” Furthermore, the Kremlin stated: “An increase in the supply of Russian fertilizers and agricultural products will also help reduce tensions on the global food market, which, of course, will require the removal of the relevant sanctions.” 

Russia’s efforts to deter a global food crisis
On 30 May, Putin stated that Moscow would bring in systems to facilitate the unhindered grain export from Ukrainian ports. Russia plans to export its wheat by coordinating with Turkey. Putin also mentioned that Russia would export more significant volumes of agricultural products such as wheat if sanctions were lifted. This led to accusations from the UN and the West that Russia was the reason for deepening the global food crisis and blamed Moscow for blocking Ukrainian ports. Russia further claims that sanctions by the West had affected their exports to access vessels or caused impediments to countries importing from Russia. Regardless of the situation, Putin plans to increase wheat exports to 87 million tonnes between June and July to counter the wheat crisis. 

Ukraine’s recourse to exporting wheat
Ukraine used to export most of its agricultural products through its Odesa port. However, it can only send 1-1.5 million tonnes through freight trains and river transport due to the war. Even with the government planning to push for shipping through trains, the country faces logistical setbacks due to the lack of fuel, trucks, broader rail gauges, and freight wagons. 

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry official Roman Rusakov said: “Ports are necessary. But having said that we certainly will improve our railway logistics. Meantime, (river) ports will be in place to do a good job. But will it be enough to reach the target of like 6, 7 million a month? No way.”

Ukraine plans to export 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes of wheat through ports on the Danube river through Romania, destined for North Africa and Asia. They also plan to send the rest of the grain by road, but in the last 22 days, only 28,000 tonnes were exported by roadway. Another challenge is storing grain in Europe, as Ukraine can send its grains through European ports, a logistical issue of storage infrastructure has emerged. Countries through which Ukraine sends its grain do not have the infrastructure to support its exports and store the wheat. 

Global movements to control the emergency
The African Union’s (AU) head and Senegal’s president Macky Sall stated that he would be visiting Russia to speak to Putin on the impending food crisis. The AU also plans to discuss issues with Zelesnkyy and the EU concerning the increasing prices of commodities. This comes as the African continent is dependent on Ukraine for wheat and fertilizer from Russia. 

UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson assured Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the UK, with the G7 members, would push for grain exports and try to get Russia to relax its blockade. The G7 is also planning to initiate a massive public diplomacy campaign to spread awareness of the worsening wheat crisis and the reasons for the shortage. The campaign was launched to bring the issue to the UN General Assembly and call for an end to the naval blockade in the Black Sea. 

Additional challenges ahead
First, India halting grain exports. On 14 May, India announced that it would be halting its wheat exports to counter domestic food prices and support neighboring countries. India placed wheat exports under the “prohibited” category as prices in the international market spiked exponentially with the war in Ukraine. However, India drew backlash from the international community and the G7 for its action as it could influence other countries to take similar steps. 

Second, logistical shortcomings. Even though Ukraine plans to export its grains through Europe, it would take twice the time for the wheat to reach its destination countries. This could lead to acute shortages in certain countries. Additionally, due to the detour, the grain prices would inherently rise, and amid a fuel price hike, the countries importing the wheat would have to pay substantially higher prices. 

Third, civil unrest. The war in Ukraine threatens the African and Middle Eastern region’s food security as the countries are dependent on Kyiv and Moscow for wheat supplies. The UN has issued warnings of rising food insecurity that could induce civil unrest similar to the Arab spring. Egypt, the world’s top wheat importer, could face political unrest as the war has strained its subsidized bread supplies. 

References
Paul Iddon, “How the Ukraine war is driving food insecurity in the Middle East,” The New Arab, 02 June 2022
Anders Aslund, “Russia’s war on global food security,” Atlantic Council, 01 June 2022
Philip Pullela, “Wheat can’t be ‘weapon of war’, Pope says, urging lifting of Ukraine block,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Putin ready to facilitate unfettered grain exports from Ukraine’s ports - Kremlin,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Putin Ties Ukraine Grain Flow To Sanctions Relief; Macron And Scholz Urge Serious Peace Effort,” Radio Free Europe, 28 May 2022 
Pavel Polityuk, Felix Hoske, and Stefaniia Bern, “Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine’s grain moving fast,” Reuters, 26 May 2022


Russia-Norway: Nuclear safety cooperation paused
By Harini Madhusudan

On 02 June, Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear agency stalled further cooperation with Norway on Nuclear Safety. This brings to close three decades of partnership, during which, Norway gave Russia more than two billion euros for helping with its nuclear dump sites and to improve safety at icebreakers and power plants. Rosatom announced on 31 May that Norway would no longer be welcome to participate in projects which were financed by Oslo until recently. Norway has said that the contact channels, emergency preparedness, and information sharing would continue. 

Russia and Norway share a coastline on the Barents Sea with a common interest to prevent radioactive leakage into the marine environment. In an area of about 60-kilometers from the Russian land border with Norway, some of the largest dump sites for radioactive waste, and spent nuclear fuel from Soviet-era submarines are stored. For example, at the spent nuclear fuel storage in Andreeva Bay, the shipment of spent nuclear fuel from the storage tanks holds some 10,000 spent nuclear fuel elements stored in concrete tanks. The bay works on the removal of non-problematic fuel elements, first by ship to Murmansk and then by train to a reprocessing plant in Mayak near Chelyabinsk, most of which is paid for by Norway. At every stage of this process, there remains a threat of the damaged elements or the fear of accidents during lifting and re-packing into new containers.

Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Norway froze all of its financings for nuclear projects agreed upon under the joint commission between Russia and Norway. One of the reasons for the current response by Russia indicates their statement, ‘no pay = no access.’ After a meeting of the Norwegian-Russian Commission on nuclear safety in Oslo on 31 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry said, “Nuclear security cooperation between Norway and Russia is a key dimension in our bilateral relationship. It is in our common interest to reduce the risk of accidents and radioactive contamination,” and while the state secretary of the Foreign Ministry heads these meetings, this year, the Norwegian representative was led by the director of the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (DSA). The response was because Norway no longer maintains political contact with Moscow. 

Additionally, Naturvernforbundet (Friends of the Earth Norway), an organization that follows the nuclear safety work in Russia, decided to stay away from the Commission meeting this year. Naturvernforbundet has been working in cooperation with local non-governmental groups for years, and these NGOs have played a significant role since the 1990s in bringing attention to the urgency of nuclear safety in the north. While the meeting promised to continue the exchange of information and keep the channels of communication open, this incident could be seen as a collateral fallout of the War in Russia in the decades-long systems that have existed in the region.

References
Russia Pauses Nuclear Safety Cooperation With Norway in the North,” Moscow Times, 01 June 2022
Charles Digges, “Russian-Norwegian nuclear safety commission ceases work over war in Ukraine,” Bellona, 01 June 2022


Turkey and Greece: The age-old animosity of the Aegean neighbours
By Rishma Banerjee

On 01 June, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara will put an end to their bilateral talks with Athens, considering his discontentment about Greece’s recent actions. While they have always had a long and testy relationship, the leaders of both the countries had talked about mending their cooperation in March. But recently, Turkey accused Greece of violating its airspace by holding air force exercises over islands in the Aegean Sea, likewise Athens also claimed that Turkey violated their airspaces. Further, the Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s comments on a recent trip to the US seemed to have triggered the pivot for Erdogan. 

Fault lines in Greece and Turkey’s relations 
The crisis and dispute between Greece and Turkey is not a new one. It can be traced back to the early 19th century, when Greece was fighting for independence from the Ottoman Empire, which is in present-day Turkey. However, since then, their bilateral ties have seen little improvement.
1930 marked an important time in their relationship as the Treaty of Lausanne was signed, which demarcated their respective borders. They also pledged that they will not join opposing economic or military blocs and try put an end to the disagreements between them.

However, the next crisis came with Cyprus, and both the countries aspirations to usurp the territory. While they have been contesting over Cyprus for a long time, because of the significant presence of both the Greek and Turkish diaspora in the country, the situation reached its peak in 1974. Greece’s military regime staged a Cypriot coup d'état, which was followed by a Turkish response in five days. As a result of this crisis, Turkey established the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but even to this day, it is recognized as a sovereign territory only by Turkey. 

Both the countries also disagree when it comes to the control of the Aegean Sea. The delimitation of territorial waters, the national airspace over the Aegean Sea, and the use of the common continental shelf has not been agreed upon. Since the 1990s, the Aegean countries have tried to encircle each other causing fallouts and the EU’s intervention. In 1987, they came close to all-out war, when a Turkish survey ship was ordered to be sunk to the bottom of the Greek waters if it floated too close. Again, in 1995 there was a flare-up in tension, regarding the jurisdiction of Imia, the uninhabited rock island.

Contemporary issues in their bilateral relations 
The relationship between the two countries has still been quite tumultuous. They have made little progress in the 60 rounds of talk they conducted from 2002 to 2016. Recently, in 2020, they came close to confrontation, when Turkey sent a drilling ship to the contested Mediterranean waters. Last year, after a five-year hiatus, the two NATO members resumed talks to address their differences in the Mediterranean Sea among other bilateral issues, but again to no great success.

Erdogan said on 01 June that Turkey has canceled the bilateral cooperation platform, dubbed as the High-Level Strategic Council with Greece, which was created in 2010 for their rapprochement. This has been catalysed by mutual allegations of airspace violations, and Mitsotakis’s comments that the US should not sell the F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. 

Moreover, the Special Forces of Turkey and Azerbaijan recently conducted a joint military exercise, ‘EFES-2022’ by simulating a landing on a Greek Islands, thus adding to the already strained relations. The scenario includes training in penetrating behind enemy lines through the sea, clearing coastlines and attacking coastal enemy’s military positions as well as neutralizing coastal targets.

References
Galip Dalay, “Turkey, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean: Charting a way out of the current deadlock,” Brookings, 28 January 2021
Turkey, Greece agree to improve ties amid Ukraine conflict,” Reuters, 14 March 2022
Greece and Turkey accuse each other's military of airspace violations,” Euronews, 29 April 2022
Andrew Wilks, “Turkey breaks off high-level talks with Greece as rift grows,” Washington Post, 01 June 2022
Erdogan halts Turkey-Greece talks as rift widens, Al Jazeera, 01 June 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 99
By Padmashree Anandhan
 
War on the Ground
On 02 June, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his address in Luxembourg’s Parliament reported that 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory had come under Russia’s control. It marked up to 1000 kilometers covering Severodonetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, and Zaporizhzhia. Apart from this, he claimed that Russia has faced military losses of more than 30,000, whereas Russia has confirmed only 1300 deaths.

Advisor to president, Mykhailo Podolyak confirmed the receiving of long-range HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) rockets and 108 units of M777 Howitzers from the US. He said that Ukraine will not be using it against Russia.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said that it will be collaborating with other European countries. It is to bring the Russian naval bloc to an end and to reopen the ports for export grain. Since the Blockade caused by the Russian ships, international markets have suffered a shortage in wheat and basic food items. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that with the increased Russian aggression, the food crisis has shot up which has led Ukraine to force lift the naval bloc.

On 02 June, Ukraine announced the increase in the interest rate for the first time in its monitory policy since the war began. The rate has shot from 10 per cent to 25 per cent and upon the rise governor of the Central Bank called for IMF aid.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 02 June, the Ministry of Defense claimed to have struck Ukraine’s ground aircraft Sukhoio SU-25 in Mykolaiv region. Russia said that it used a “precision air-based missile” to launch the attack. It also reported on the killing of 240 Ukraine soldiers.

On EU passing of the sixth set of sanctions, Russia has warned the EU stating the stop in oil imports would be “self destructive” move. According to Russia’s Foreign Ministry: “highly likely to provoke further price increases, destabilize energy markets, and disrupt supply chains.” The European Council chief Charles Michel countered by stating the cut in oil imports and finances will push Russia to settle for a diplomatic solution.

Russia’s Defence Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov stated that the number of foreign mercenaries has reduced from 6,600 to 3,500. He reported that they were destroyed by Russia’s precision long-range weapons in the combat zone.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 02 June, European and transatlantic countries from Slovakia, Turkey, and Sweden vowed to supply a wide range of weapons, anti-tank missiles, Artillery rockets systems, and Baykar TB2 drones. The US weapons supply is estimated to be USD 700 million including anti-tank missiles, armor weapons, helicopters,

The UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update stated that Russia had brought Severodonetsk under control. Although the fight continues between Ukraine and Russia, 80 per cent of Severodonetsk and its twin city Lysychansk is observed to be taken over by Russians. The UK has also agreed to provide M270 long-range rocket systems, apart from this it will also train the Ukraine soldiers, and troops in the UK.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 02 June Sri Lanka reported on seizing of Russian plane Aeroflot Airbus A330 that had come from Moscow. It was stopped upon the order from the Colombo’s Commercial Court. It is still unclear if the seizing was due to sanctions. 

References
Russia controls most of Severodonetsk - UK intelligence,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Limited Russian success around Lysychansk - US military analysts,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Slovakia to deliver eight howitzers to Ukraine,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Ukraine raises interest rate for first time since invasion,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Russia: Number of pro-Ukrainian foreign fighters has halved,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Russia currently controls 20% of Ukraine territory – Zelensky,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Ukraine calls for action to reopen ports to export grain,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Russia claims to have shot down Ukrainian jet,” BBC, 02 June 202


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

FRANCE
France’s diplomatic corps strike to withdraw Macron’s reform
On 02 June, the diplomatic corps of France’s foreign ministry joined a strike under the hashtag #diplo2metier. The protest has been staged demanding to withdraw the proposed reform to expand and modernize the diplomatic staff of France. In April, Macron announced the reform which will combine the diplomatic corps considered the elites with the civil servant staff pool, which will enable the staff to compete for diplomatic posts. The strikers argue that the reform will alter the careers, leading to loss of expertise, and will require training and specialization. (“French diplomats go on strike in rare protest,” Deutsche Welle, 02 June 2022)

THE UK
The Cube debunks misleading claims surrounding the cost of Queen's platinum jubilee
On 02 June, Euronews reported about the misleading claims that the 70 years on the throne celebrations cost the taxpayers EUR one billion. However, according to the digital, culture, media, and sports department, the country had allocated EUR 28 million for the jubilee. The 28 million was also borne by partner organizations and not only by individual taxpayers. Additionally, the government clarified that the EUR one billion tag included the losses in productivity for the extra holidays announced. The UK government mentioned that the net loss would likely be EUR 2.3 billion due to the four-day weekend. (Sophia Khatsenkova and Matthew Holroyd, "Misleading posts claim the Queen's Platinum Jubilee cost taxpayers £1 billion," Euronews, 02 June 2022)

REGIONAL
EU passes the sixth set of sanctions on meeting Hungary’s demands
On 02 June, the EU countries passed the sixth set of sanctions upon meeting Hungary’s demands. Earlier Hungary placed a bloc in approving the complete embargo on Russian oil, challenging the decision-making process of the EU. In the new set of sanctions, the EU imposes a partial ban on oil imports, with an exemption for Hungary to import oil from Russia. it also eased the sanctions on Patriarch Kirill who heads the Russian Orthodox Church and favours Putin. Although most of the EU countries raised concerns about Hungary demand’s but eventually agreed as a compromise. The link between the church head and Hungary's Prime Minister is unknown, yet Kirill is well known for pro-war views, religious cleansing operations, and deep conservatism. (“EU bends to Hungary's demand, drops Russian patriarch from 6th sanctions package: sources,” Deutsche Welle, 02 June 2022)

ENERGY
Netherlands and Germany to extract natural gas from the North Sea
On 02 June, the Netherlands announced its collaboration with Germany in extracting natural gas from the offshore wells of the North Sea. According to the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affair, the capacity of the gas wells ranges between two to four billion cubic meters of gas and the ministry has now approved the “cross-border project.” When it comes to the proportion, the Netherlands is dependent on Russian oil for up to 15 per cent whereas Germany imports close to 55 per cent. Despite the project facing criticisms for extracting from the biodiversity hotspot or ecosystems, the project is expected to be implemented by 2024. (“Netherlands greenlights North Sea gas production with Germany,” Deutsche Welle, 02 June 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 
Accusations arise against France's top three arms producers of war crimes in Yemen
On 02 June, the European centre for constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR), the Mwatana for Human Rights, and Sherpa International accused France's Dassault Aviation, Thales, and MBDA France as complicit actors in Yemen's war crimes. The Rights group accused the producers of supporting the Saudi-led coalition to prolong and worsen the conflict. Mwatana for Human Rights executive director Abdulrasheed al-Faqih said: "The coalition's airstrikes have caused terrible destruction in Yemen. Weapons produced and exported by European countries, and in particular France, have enabled these crimes." (John Irish and Caroline Pailliez, "Rights groups allege French arms makers complicit in Yemen war crimes," Reuters, 02 June 2022)


02 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #217

War in Ukraine: Day 98

New plastic enzyme found; First set of migrants to leave from the UK by June; Croatia adopts euro currency

Photo : BBC/EPA


War in Ukraine: Day 98
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 01 June, the governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai said that Russia’s forces have occupied about 70 per cent of Sievierodonetsk, which is a strategically important city. He also mentioned that the renewed offensive has resulted in some of the forces retreating to “more advantageous, pre-prepared positions.” 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Ukraine's national soccer team, for winning their World Cup qualifying match against Scotland. He said that this win will bring joy to the country’s military, who are fighting every day against Russian aggression. The team next faces Wales on Sunday for a spot in the final draw.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 01 June, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson from Kremlin, said that the US was provoking Russia by supplying long-range rockets to Ukraine. This is in response to the US’s recent announcement about supplying long-range missiles as a part of the USD 700 million weapons package. Peskov also spoke about holding a meeting between President Putin and president Volodymyr Zelenskiyy, but said that such talks need time to be facilitated and organized. He also mentioned that he did not doubt the decision-making capacity of the people in the Russia-occupied regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donbas regarding their own futures.

On 31 May, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, and they discussed the internal cooperation in the OPEC. This is in the context of some members of the OPEC considering the removal of Russia from the group. While Russia’s foreign ministry released a statement about how the two countries discussed the “stabilizing effect” of the relations between the two countries, no comments were made by Saudi Arabia. Lavrov also spoke about Moscow facing difficulties in exporting grains because there are sanctions that have been levied on their ships.

Alexander Moiseyev, the commander of Russia’s ` Northern Fleet said that they have completed testing the hypersonic Zircon cruise missile. A new frigate on the fleet will be armed full time with the missiles by the end of this year.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

US president Joe Biden announced a new USD 700 million military packages for Ukraine. This new package will include high mobility artillery rocket systems. Referring to the same, the secretary of state, Anthony Blinken said that they have received assurances from Ukraine that these long-range missiles will not be used against Russia. 

Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock addressed the situation in Eastern Ukraine in a speech at the Parliament. She spoke about how Russia has been flattening settlements from a safe distance in the Donbas region, first with missiles, then artillery, and finally with the help of tanks. The former Chancellor, Angela Merkel also opened up about the war, after her silence for so long drawn criticism. The Chancellor, Olaf Scholz meanwhile announced that Germany will be supplying IRIS-T air defence systems to Ukraine. However, he has not yet specified the exact model.

On 01 June, Denmark conducted their vote on the European Union’s defence policy. The results of the vote show that they will consolidate their defence ties with the bloc, as 67 per cent of voters is in favour of removing the opt-out. Denmark is the only country in the 27-member bloc that was not there in the common security and defence policy. But given the current situation with regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Denmark’s vote to scrap the 30-year opt-out holds major significance. 

Switzerland, which has been historically neutral, rejected Denmark’s proposal to send armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine. Switzerland has been able to do this because these carriers are Swiss-made, and there is a mandate which requires foreign countries to seek permission to re-export them.

Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland will get an economic impulse by helping Ukraine. Poland has been hosting the highest number of refugees from Ukraine and has also been one of the biggest financial supporters of the country. Ahead of a meeting between the two governments, he said: “Today we are preparing several agreements between specific ministries, which will help Ukraine and give Poland an economic impulse.”

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 01 June, Pope Francis addressed a general audience at the St. Peter’s Square, and urged the authorities involved to lift their blockade on the export of wheat stored in Ukraine. In light of the looming food security crisis, he said that grains cannot be used as a "weapon of war".

On 01 May, Brazil’s famous soccer star of yesteryear, Pele made a plea to president Putin to end his "wicked" and "unjustifiable" in Ukraine. In a statement that was published on Instagram, ahead of Ukraine’s qualifying game for the World Cup.

References
Governor of Ukraine's Luhansk region says Russia controls 70% of Sievierodonetsk,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Ukraine soccer win brings joy to military in war with Russia - Zelenskiy,Reuters, 02 June 2022
Attack on chemical plant in Sievierodonetsk criticised by Zelensky – as it happened,” The Guardian, 02 June 2022
Russia says U.S. is adding fuel to fire by supplying Ukraine with rockets,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Kremlin says talks with Zelenskiy possible, but negotiations stalled,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Russia and Saudi foreign ministers praise OPEC+, says Moscow,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Russia says it's completed testing of hypersonic Zircon cruise missile,Reuters, 01 June 2022
Russia says it is facing difficulties exporting grain due to sanctions on ships,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Steve Holland and Doina Chiacu, “Biden announces new $700 million in military aid for Ukraine,” Reuters, 02 June 2022
US says Ukraine will not use US-supplied rocket systems to hit Russian territory,The Guardian, 01 June 2022
Russia trying to "extinguish civilisation" in Donbas - Germany's Baerbock,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
After criticism, Germany's Merkel shows solidarity for Ukraine - source,Reuters, 01 June 2022
Germany to send IRIS-T air defence system to Ukraine,Reuters, 01 June 2022
Denmark votes to drop EU defence opt-out in 'historic' referendum,” BBC, 02 June 2022
Denmark to join EU defence policy after historic vote,Reuters, 02 June 2022
Poland to become 'economic hub' for Ukraine, says PM,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Swiss veto Danish request to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Philip Pullella, “Wheat can't be 'weapon of war', Pope says, urging lifting of Ukraine block,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Brendan O'boyle, “Brazilian soccer icon Pele calls on Putin to stop 'wicked' Ukraine invasion,” Reuters, 02 June 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

CROATIA
Croatia switches to the single currency and joins the eurozone
On 01 June, European Commission said that Croatia had qualified to take up the euro as its common currency from 2023. Through this, Croatia will become the 20th country to bring euro into daily practice as a single currency. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “Today, Croatia has made a significant step towards adopting the euro, our common currency… will make Croatia's economy stronger, bringing benefits to its citizens, businesses and society at large.” The switching from the previous currency of Croatia, kuna was not an task as it involves Croatia meeting the legal and economic standards along with a “stable inflation” on par with the set benchmarks. Apart from Croatia, Bulgaria is also on the list to switch to euro and join the eurozone by 2024. (“EU says Croatia ready to join eurozone in 2023,” Deutsche Welle, 01 June 2022)

THE UK
UK to send the first batch of migrants to Rwanda in June
On 01 June, the UK Home Office announced the first transfer of migrants to Rwanda which is scheduled to take place on 14 June. The move is predicted to face legal challenges from individuals and campaign groups, despite that the Home Office is aiming to provide support and has planned to send only single people who have arrived in small boats since 01 January. Till now, 4,850 people have crossed through the English Channel and the UK is yet to confirm the number of people given removal notices. Although people are sent to Rwanda, those who fail the asylum application will face a threat of deportation, but will also be provided an option to apply for visas through other courses if they wish to stay in Rwanda. (“First flight taking Channel migrants to Rwanda set for 14 June,” BBC, 01 June 2022 )

DENMARK
Denmark reverses the 30 years opt-out of EU's security policy
On 02 June, Denmark voted in favour of a historic referendum to remove the 30-year opt-out from the EU security policy. In the total population, the citizen approval rate came up to 65.8 per cent which is considered the highest but also seen as the second-lowest attendance. Denmark has always chosen to stay away from further integration with the EU since the 1992 Maastricht Treaty and due to the EU’s increased security activities post Crimean annexation in 2014. The shift has come mainly due to the Ukraine war and the Nordic neighbour’s military reassessment. Through this vote, Denmark henceforth will become part of the finance and military operations of the EU and will also join the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy which might lead to a new opening of security-related agencies. (Adrienne Murray, “Denmark votes to drop EU defence opt-out in 'historic' referendum,” BBC, 02 June 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
German scientists discover a faster plastic-eating enzyme
On 01 June, Scientists from Leipzig discovered a new type of enzyme which disintegrates the plastic much faster. In an experiment in the collected compost from a Leipzig cemetery, they found polyester hydrolase, PHL7 which broke down the plastic in less than 24 hours. Till now commonly used enzyme is LCC which is used in PET plastic-eating experiments and when comparing the results of both enzymes, PHL 7 turned out to be faster than LCC. PET plastics have been a major problem in climate degradation and the solution to PET plastics has been either forcing the plastic to stop or end the production of PET plastics. With the newfound enzyme, the scientists hope to bring it into practice within four years in large scale industries.(“Plastic packaging might be biodegradable after all, say German scientists,” Deutsche Welle, 01 June 2022)


01 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #216

Baltic States push towards Natoization of Baltic Sea: Implications for Russia 

Macron’s shortcomings in the upcoming elections; Germany prepares for rising energy prices; EU leaders plan on blocking oil imports from Russia

Photo : Euronews/Finnish Navy/Merivoimat


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Baltic States push towards Natoization of Baltic Sea: Implications for Russia 

On 16 May, NATO conducted one of its most extensive exercises in the Baltic regions called the Exercise Siil 2022 (Hedgehog, 2022) which went on till 03 June. Finland and Sweden also joined the allies in the Baltic seas for the training, which revived the large-scale military exercises by NATO and brought a visible change in the security paradigm. The activities involved allies from 14 countries and about 15,000 NATO military personnel. 

The joint exercises and Finland and Sweden’s application to the security bloc invigorated the Baltic states’ push to convert their sea into a NATO sea. Additionally, the Baltic Sea is strategically important as it iterates an identity for people and provides employment opportunities to about 85 million people. This comes as, on 22 May, Estonia’s President Alar Karis mentioned to Poland’s president Andrzej Duda that the war in Ukraine and Finland and Sweden joining NATO would likely make the Baltic Sea into NATO’s inland sea. 

Why are the Baltic states pushing for NATO to get more involved in the Baltic Sea? 

First, a stabilized Baltic Sea. If the two countries are accepted into NATO, the overall security architecture in the Baltic sea will be strengthened as the other members could depend on Finland and Sweden’s support. The two countries would contribute their land, airspace, water, and, more importantly, their naval capabilities to defend against potential attacks by Russia. 

Second, Finland’s and Sweden’s added support. The two countries could contribute tremendously to the relatively weaker navies of the other members. Sweden maintains a large submarine fleet, while Finland has extensive experience in minesweeping activities and in-shore patrol expertise. Their support would also lead to confidence-building measures that could strengthen security cooperation between the Baltic states. 

Third, closing strategic gaps in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic states have always been worried about the islands owned by Finland and Sweden. Concerns arose about using these islands as potential bases to attack the Baltic states due to their geographic proximity. Sweden’s island of Gotland, which it had briefly demilitarised post the cold war, is a vulnerable flank for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. 

Implications for Russia 
If the Baltic sea becomes a NATO sea, there would be a check on Russia’s fleets docked in St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad exclaves. Russia is likely to increase its military deployments in the sea, but that would not impact NATO’s strengthened collective security. Furthermore, Russia would feel threatened as Finland would help NATO extend its border to the Kola Peninsula. The Kola Peninsula is a central military hub for Russia; it also has the world’s largest concentration of nuclear weapons. The peninsula is also home to Russia’s northern fleet, which includes the country’s nuclear-powered submarines.  

References
Constantine Atlamazoglou, “NATO’s 2 newest members would move the alliance closer to one of Russia’s most sensitive military outposts,”
Business Insider, 01 June 2022
David Mac Dougall, “Sea changes: How NATO’s expansion could stabilise the Baltic region,” Euronews, 20 May 2022 
David Brennan, “Finland Joining NATO Will Help Bloc Control Baltic Sea: Officials,” Newsweek, 13 May 2022 
Alexandra Brzozowski, “With Nordics set to join NATO, Estonia wants to close Baltic security gaps,” Euractiv, 13 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 97
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
Ukraine reported ‌that Russia has now taken control over half of Sievierodonetsk, in the Luhansk province. They also said that Russia has decreased their manpower and firepower in other parts of the eastern front in order to consolidate all the efforts on Sievierodonetsk. Governor Serhiy Gaidai said that the city has almost been flattened, nearly all critical infrastructure destroyed and about 60 per cent of the residential houses damaged beyond repair. Amidst Russia's troops’ slow advance towards the centre of the city, Gaidai maintains ‌Ukraine troops do not face the risk of being surrounded by Russia as they could easily start their retreat to Lysychansk, across the river. He also spoke about how a nitric acid tank in the frontline of Sievierodonetsk has been hit by Russian airstrikes. He urged local residents to not leave the bomb shelters as they might get affected by the fumes from the acid tank. He also posted a photo on the Telegram app where a large pink cloud could be seen on top of apartment buildings, but no casualties have been reported so far. 

On 31st May, a Ukrainian court gave the verdict about two more Russian soldiers accused of war crimes. They were sentenced to 11 and a half years in jail for shelling a town in eastern Ukraine. Alexander Bobikin and Alexander Ivanov had pleaded guilty, and after the verdict said that their sentences were fair. Prosecutor-general Iryna Venedictova said that Ukraine has identified over 600 Russian soldiers suspected of committing war crimes, and has started prosecuting around 80 of them.

Ukraine's state service for special communication released a statement that said that the southern region of Kherson, is occupied by Russia.

The foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter that Ukraine was collaborating with an UN-led international operation to create a safe route for food exports. However, no further clarifications were offered by the minister.

On 31 May, president Volodymir Zelenskyy said that Ukraine's forces were able to gain some ground near Kherson, and were advancing towards the Kharkiv region. He also spoke about the EU's agreement on embargos on Russian oil and said that once this sixth set of sanctions was in place, they should start preparing for the seventh set. While he welcomed this sixth round of sanctions, he also expressed his discontent about the “unacceptable” delay on the part of the EU. In his nightly address, he said: “In the end there should be no meaningful economic relations left between the free world and the terrorist state.”

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 31 May, Denis Pushilin, the separatist leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, reported that the cargo ship that was supposed to leave from the Mariupol port has set sail. On the Telegram app, he mentioned that the ship with 2,500 tons of hot-rolled metal sheets is headed to the Rostov in Russia.

Russia’s defence ministry reported their forces downed a Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet. This took place in the Mykolaiv region. They also bombed two ammunition depots and a radar station in eastern Ukraine.

As the EU prepares to continue with their proposed sixth set of embargos, Russia has cut off gas supplies to some companies in Denmark and Germany. Gazprom extended its gas cuts to GasTerra, a company that buys gas on behalf of the government in Denmark. They also said that they will stop their flow to another Danish energy firm Ørsted as well as to Shell Energy in Germany, for failing to pay in Roubles.

Oleg Moroziv, a senior Russian parliamentarian, has suggested kidnapping a war minister of any NATO country, in a TV show on Rossiya-1 state TV. He said that it was a plot he was contemplating, that would help in figuring out the motives and workings of these countries. He said: “... then we would sort out who gave which order for what, who is responsible for what exactly… It is not such a mythical picture ... There are new rules in the world now. Let all those war ministers gathering in Kyiv think a little about what it would be like to wake up in Moscow.”

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 

The European Union leaders had a summit meeting on 30 and 31 May and came to an agreement about their proposed embargos on Russia. They said that the sanctions on Russian crude oil will take full effect by the end of 2022. This plan will aim to stop 90% of Russia's oil imports to the European Union bloc. However, Hungary, the main opposition to the oil embargoes and two other landlocked countries in Central Europe, the Czech Republic and Slovakia will be given exemptions for pipeline imports for some time till they figure out an alternative.

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, also spoke about the latest sanction. He said that additional sanctions from the EU cannot be ruled out yet, and it will depend on Russia’s actions in the coming days. Macron also expressed hope that, amidst the ongoing food crisis, Russia will facilitate the export of food from Ukraine. 

Following the EU’s footsteps, Canada also announced that they too will be imposing a new set of sanctions on Russia. According to the official statement, this will include 22 individuals. Moreover, it will affect senior officials of Russian financial institutions and their families, and major key financial institutions and banks too.

On 31 May, US president Joe Biden said that they are doing their best to send Ukraine a “significant amount of weaponry and ammunition” which includes advanced rocket systems, as soon as possible. This announcement comes a day after he said in the press briefing that the US will not be giving long-range missile systems that can target Russia. A senior official of the Biden administration said that they will look into upgrading Kyiv’s battleground capabilities. He also said that the weapons supplied to Ukraine will help strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining power, and repel Russian advances in their territory. However, they will not be used on any target in the Russian territory.

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz spoke to reporters and said that Germany will be supplying more weapons and infantry vehicles to Ukraine. But, these will be delivered to Greece, who in turn will pass it on to Ukraine. 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

A UN spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric said that they had had constructive discussions with the first deputy prime minister of Russia, Andrey Belousov. The meeting was to discuss Ukraine’s stored grains and fertilizers and the process through which it can reach the global markets amidst a rising food security crisis.

The UN and other humanitarian agencies also released a statement explaining the status of the brewing food security crisis. The worst drought has hit the Horn of Africa in over 40 years. Without the urgent import of Ukraine’s stored grains, they warned that millions of people in this region will face severe hunger. As per the statement, currently, 16.7 million people are victims of acute food insecurity in East Africa, but with the ongoing crisis, that number is projected to be at 20 million by September.

On 31 May, Pope Francis convened an international prayer for peace in Ukraine. Sitting in his wheelchair, he conducted the service before the statue of Mary Queen of Peace, at the Rome Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore. This event was attended by around 1000 people including Ukraine’s ambassador to the Vatican.

References
Geneva Abdul, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 97 of the invasion,The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Max Hunder, “Russia takes most of Sievierodonetsk city in eastern Ukraine,Reuters, 1 June 2022
Peter Beaumont, “Most of Sievierodonetsk has fallen to Russia, says governor of Luhansk,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Russian airstrike hits acid tank in Ukraine's Sievierodonetsk, governor says,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Ukraine jails two Russian soldiers for shelling villages,The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Ukraine has identified 600 Russian war crime suspects - prosecutor, Reuters, 31 May 2022
Ukrainian officials report 'shutdown of all communications' in Kherson region,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
Ukrainian forces making some progress in southern region -Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
Ukraine's president welcomes new sanctions but criticises "unacceptable" delay,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
First cargo ship leaves Mariupol since Russia took the city - separatist leader,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Russia says it downed Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet in Mykolaiv region,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Russia cuts gas supplies to Netherlands and firms in Denmark and Germany,The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Russian lawmaker suggests kidnapping NATO defence minister in Ukraine,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Kate Abnett, Jan Strupczewski and Ingrid Melander, “EU agrees Russia oil embargo, gives
“Hungary exemptions; Zelenskiy vows more sanctions
,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
France's Macron not ruling out more Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Canada imposes Russia-related sanctions 22 individuals, 4 entities,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Biden says U.S. will provide Ukraine with advanced rocket systems,” Reuters, 1 June 2022
U.S. to provide long-range rocket system to Ukraine, official says,Reuters, 1 June 2022
Berlin to supply arms to Greece, Athens to deliver Soviet weapons to Kyiv -Scholz,”Reuters, 31 May 2022 
U.N. had 'constructive' talks in Moscow on Russian grain, fertilizer exports,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Drought threatens starvation in Horn of Africa, U.N., agencies say,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “Africa warns of food crisis due to Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports,” The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Ukraine working on U.N.-led naval operation to export its crops,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
Pope leads international prayer service for peace in Ukraine, elsewhere,Reuters, 31 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

FRANCE
IFOP polls forecast Macron’s shortcomings in the upcoming elections  
On 01 June, according to an international polling and market research firm IFOP, president Emmanuel Macron might not secure an absolute majority in the national assembly elections. 
The polls inferred that Macron’s centrist camp would be able to secure 275 to 310 seats out of the 577 seats. However, it would need additional support to get the 289 benchmarks for an absolute majority. The poll also mentioned Macron’s concerns about a possible minority government which would be a hindrance to passing legislation by his government. The first round of voting is due on 12 June, with the runoffs scheduled for 19 June. (“France’s Macron could lose lower house majority, polls show,” Reuters, 01 June 2022) 

GERMANY
The government creates a EUR nine-month a ticket to tackle rising transport costs
On 01 June, the government decided to give EUR nine a-month tickets in response to the rising energy prices. Additionally, the government plans to reduce fuel prices by 30 cents for petrol and 14 cents a litre for diesel. Germans would be allowed to travel the country with just EUR nine and would deter people from using their cars. This comes as inflation in Germany hit 7.9 per cent in May. The government has also taken measures such as a one-off EUR 300-rebate for energy costs, EUR 100 for child benefits bonus per child, and people on welfare will receive EUR 100. (“Germans get €9-a-month travel in response to energy price rises,” BBC, 01 June 2022)

REGIONAL
EU leaders announce plans to block Russian oil imports by the end of 2022
On 01 June, the EU said it would end Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The reason given for the decision was to punish Russia for invading Ukraine. This comes as a part of the sixth package of sanctions approved by all 27 members. The EU had earlier halted the implementation of its latest round of sanctions due to differences over the ban on Russian oil. European commission president Ursula von der Leyen addressed the differences saying: “Left over is around 10-11% that is covered by the southern Druzhba.” (“Russian oil: EU agrees compromise deal on banning imports,” BBC, 01 June 2022)

Poland’s recovery plan gets approval from the EU
On 01 June, the European Commission announced that it had approved funds to help Poland with its economic recovery. However, the funds were restricted until Poland reformed its judiciary system. Von der Leyen mentioned that Poland would receive EUR 23.9 billion in grants and EUR 11.5 billion in cheap loans under the deal. The commission stated: “Poland needs to demonstrate that these milestones are fulfilled before any disbursement can be made.” (Jan Strupczewski and Gabriela Baczynska “EU approves Polish recovery plan, but no payouts before judiciary fixed,” Reuters, 01 June 2022) 


31 May 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #215

War in Ukraine: Day 96

The UK plans to re-open gas storage facilities; EU leaders progress on banning Russian imports; Man throws cake at Mona Lisa painting

Photo : Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS


War in Ukraine: Day 96
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
The governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Gaidai informed that two civilians were killed and five suffered injuries because of Russian shelling in the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk. He elaborated that only a part of the largest city in Luhansk was still under Kyiv’s control. Gaidai also said that neighbouring Lysychansk was still under Ukrainian control but the main road connecting the two cities had been severely shelled.

On 30 May, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said, “We need a clear legal affirmation that Ukraine is a part of the European integration project, and such an affirmation would be the granting of candidate status.”

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

Russia’s defence ministry announced their forces had struck a shipbuilding facility in Mykolaiv in southern Ukrainian. They also mentioned that their artillery had struck a hangar at the Okean Shipyard, and destroyed vehicles and other equipment. The ministry also said that the forces were regrouping to resume their offence toward the Sloviansk region.

A Russia backed separatist leader told the TASS news agency that Russian forces have seized control over almost one-third of Sievierodonetsk, but it was taking longer than they had anticip[ated to gain ground. It was reported that Russian troops have entered through the southeastern and northeastern fringes of the city, increasing their offensive in the Donbas region, as they go.

TASS also reported that the export of grains that were harvested last year, in Ukraine started from the Kherson region, which is under Russia’s control. The product is now being shipped to Russia. 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 30 May, the leaders of the European Union met at the summit and discussed how to enforce the terms of the sixth set of embargoes on Russia. Given the impasse, they had been at due to Hungary’s opposition to the oil ban. According to the deliberations at the end of the first day of the two-day summit, it has been decided that the embargo from now till now will ban 90 per cent of all Russian oil. The remaining 10 per cent will be temporarily exempt, and Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which are landlocked, can receive oil for now. It was also decided that the EU countries will go forward with the rest of the terms of the proposal, like cutting Sberbank from the SWIFT messaging system.

US president Joe Biden told reporters at the white house that they will not be sending any missile system that could target Russia. This comes amidst Ukraine’s continuous request to its allies for long-range systems like the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).

On 30 May, Ibrahim Kalin, the chief advisor to Turkey’s president, spoke to Jake Sullivan, the chief adviser to the US president. Turkey has been opposed to Sweden and Finland’s application to NATO. Kalin reiterated the issue and said that unless “concrete steps” are taken about the “terrorist organisations” that Turkey alleges are housed by Finland and Sweden, they will not reconsider their NATO bids. Turkey’s president, Tayyip Erdogan also had a phone call with Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy and discussed creating a sea route for transporting Ukraine’s agricultural produce to the global market. Erdogan also spoke to Russia’s president Putin and said that Turkey was ready to take on the mantle of a benign an “observation mechanism” to facilitate peace talks between Moscow, Kyiv and the United Nations if possible.

The state news agency of Belarus, BelTA, reported that they will be conducting military mobilisation exercises in the Gomel Oblast in June and July. This region borders Ukraine in the south and also has places that come under the exclusion zone from the nuclear fallouts of Chornobyl. 

On 30 May, a journalist from France, who was travelling in Sievierodonetsk died when shrapnel from Russian shelling in the region, hit his car. Frederic Leclercq-Imhoff was on his second tour of the conflict in Ukraine when he died. His colleague and cameraman also succumbed to the attack. France’s new foreign minister, Catherine Colonna has demanded a probe into the circumstances of Leclerc’s death, and the governor of Luhansk has said that after the hit, and due to further shelling by Russia, evacuation efforts in the region have also been halted. 

References
Two civilians killed as Russian troops enter Sievierodonetsk - governor,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Russian forces moving deeper into Sivierodonetsk - Luhansk governor,Reuters, 30 May 2022
Evacuation halted after French journalist killed by shelling in Ukraine's Luhansk region - governor,Reuters, 30 May 2022
Ukraine fed up with EU integration fudging, says foreign minister,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Russia says it struck shipyard in Ukraine's Mykolaiv,Reuters, 30 May 2022
Russian forces regrouping to resume attack in Sloviansk direction -defmin,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Assault on Sievierodonetsk taking longer than Russian forces hoped - TASS,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Russian shelling of Sievierodonetsk has destroyed ‘entire critical infrastructure’ of city Zelenskiy says – as it happened,The Guardian, 31 May 2022
Russian-controlled Kherson region in Ukraine starts grain exports to Russia - TASS,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Jan Strupczewski and Philip Blenkinsop, “EU, resolving a deadlock, in deal to cut most Russia oil imports,Reuters, 31 May 2022
U.S. will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia, says Biden,Reuters, 30 May 2022
Turkey tells U.S. it wants 'concrete steps' from Finland, Sweden for NATO bids,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Erdogan tells Zelenskiy he values project to create sea route for agriculture exports,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Turkey can help in Russia-Ukraine 'observation mechanism', Erdogan tells Putin,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Belarus to conduct military mobilisation exercises near Ukraine border -BelTA,Reuters, 31 May 2022
Lorenzo Tondo and Jon Henley, “French journalist killed by shrapnel from Russian shell in eastern Ukraine,The Guardian, 30 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

THE UK
Government plans to re-open its gas storage facility
On 30 May, the UK’s government said it was planning on opening its gas storage facility as a contingency plan amid the war in Ukraine. Energy firm Centrica owns a gas storage facility that closed down in 2017 after the government cancelled its subsidies in 2017. According to the BBC, the UK government now plans to revive its strategic gas reserves in case of supplies from Russia are cut off. Additionally, the government plans to extend the life span of the coal-fired power plants. However, the UK receives only a minute amount of supplies from Russia. Yet, the government is concerned that its Norwegian supplies might be diverted to other parts of Europe if Moscow cuts its supplies to the EU. (Simon Jack, “UK in talks to re-open giant gas storage facility for winter,” BBC, 31 May 2022)

RUSSIA
Boris Yeltsin’s son-in-law quits the Kremlin
On 30 May, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s advisor Valentin Yumashev left his role as a Kremlin adviser. Yumashev was one of the last links of Yeltsin within the Kremlin and a part of Putin’s administration. Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did comment on the issue. Many senior figures from the Yeltsin era of liberal reforms have been leaving the Kremlin. In March, Anatoly Chubais, a part of the Kremlin’s special envoy, left his role. (“Exclusive: Yeltsin’s son-in-law quits as Putin adviser -sources,” Reuters, 31 May 2022) 

REGIONAL
EU leaders reach an agreement on banning oil imports from Russia
On 31 May, European commission chief Ursula von der Leyen mentioned: “I am very glad that the leaders were able to agree in principle on the sixth sanctions package.” She added that the bloc will now be able to finalize a ban of up to 90 per cent of oil imports by the end of 2022. Concerning the remaining ten per cent, Von der Leyen said the commission would soon be addressing the issue. (“EU leaders agree “in principle” on Russia oil embargo - von der Leyen,” Reuters, 31 May 2022) 

CLIMATE CHANGE
Man throws cake at the Mona Lisa painting, saying, “Think of the Earth” 
On 30 May, a man disguised as an older woman in a wheelchair smeared cake across Leonardo da Vinci’s famous painting, the Mona Lisa. The activist also threw roses across the gallery while being escorted by security. He added: “There are people who are destroying the Earth. Think about it. Artists tell you: think of the Earth. That’s why I did this.” According to the police, the 36-year-old man was sent to the police psychiatric unit. Meanwhile, the prosecutor’s office confirmed the painting was not damaged due to the glass installed back in the 1950s. (“Mona Lisa: Man dressed as old woman throws cake at da Vinci painting,” BBC, 30 May 2022)


30 May 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #214

War in Ukraine: Day 94 & 95

Germany enables USD 110 billion defence fund; the UK prepares to commemorate Queens seven decades on the throne; Serbia signs three-year gas deal with Russia

Photo : The Guardian/AP


War in Ukraine: Day 94 & 95 
By Rishma Banerjee  

War on the Ground
On 29 May, regional governor Oleksiy Kuleba said that around 50 homes in the Demydiv village were still dealing with floods. This is because a nearby dam was destroyed by the Ukraine’s forces to stop the Russian tanks from advancing to Kyiv. 

On 28 May, Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov gave an update about the new set of weapons that were coming in from their allies and partner countries. He said that they have received Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark and self-propelled howitzers from the United States. Reznikov said that this will monumentally increase the ‘coastal defence’ of the country.

Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, said that there were around 10,000 Russian troops in the east of Ukraine. This is in context of Russia stepping up their offensive in the region, as they try to capture territory in “any direction they can.” In a televised speech, President Zelenskyy also elaborated on the condition in Sievierodonetsk and said: "Some 90% of buildings are damaged. More than two-thirds of the city's housing stock has been completely destroyed. There is no telecommunication… Capturing Sievierodonetsk is a fundamental task for the occupiers ... We do all we can to hold this advance.”

Zelenskyy also visited the troops in the Kharkiv region, marking the first time he has made an official appearance at the frontline.He handed out medals, commendations and gifts to the soldiers.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 29 May, the defence minister of Ukraine, Sergei Lavrov said that the “liberation” of the Donbas region of Ukraine was of utmost importance to Russia, given the current situation. In an interview with France's TF1 television channel, he referred to the operation in Donbas as an “unconditional priority.”

On 29 May, Gazprom, Russia’s gas producer, said that they were still supplying gas to Europe through their pipelines in Ukraine. They said that 44.1 million cubic meters of gas were applied through the Sudzha entry point in Ukraine. 

President Putin and the President of Serbia spoke via a phone call and agreed that Russia will continue to supply natural gas and work towards strengthening their ties. Kremlin reported that the two leaders have also spoken about Kosovo.

Ukraine’s Eurovision winner, Kalush Orchestra have raised USD 900,000 for the war effort by auctioning their Eurovision trophy. The crystal microphone was auctioned off on Facebook and was led by Ukrainian TV presenter Serhiy Prytula.

On 28 May, it was reported that the Russian forces have been increasing their offensive in and around the Sievierodonetsk. This also marks a shift in the momentum of the war, as Russia scales up their operations. As per Reuters, they are close to capturing all of Luhansk, which Russia had set as one of their war goals, after abandoning their campaign in Kyiv.

Russia’s defence ministry said that they have successfully tested a hypersonic Zircon cruise missile. These missiles which president Putin describes as a new generation of arms systems was tested over a distance of about 1,000 kilometres and was fired from the Barents Sea. It hit a target in the White Sea.

On 28 May, a ship entered the Mariupol port. TASS reports that the vessel will load 2700 tonnes of metal and travel 160 kilometres to Russia. This is the first time since the siege began at Mariupol that the port will be used. Lyudmyla Denisova, Ukraine's human rights ombudsman, however, said that this was akin to looting the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. 

On 27 May, the finance minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia will need considerable financial resources, to maintain its military operation in the country. He said that the budget stimulus, at the rate at which they are going, will be around RUB 8 trillion.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 29 May, Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said that the apparent unity in the EU, about imposing embargoes on Russia was “starting to crumble”. This is in the context of the upcoming meeting of EU leaders on 30 and 31 May, to discuss the same.

On 28 May, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz conducted a joint call with president Putin. Elysee Palace said that they had urged Putin to release the 2500 fighters who have been captured from the Azovstal Steel plant in Mariupol. 

They also spoke about the urgency in lifting the blockades on the Black Sea ports, so that Ukraine’s stockpiled grains can reach the global market, ahead of the looming food security crisis. UK’s prime minister, Boris Johnson also spoke about the same and in a conversation with president Zelenskyy, he said that the UK along with their partners in the G7 are trying to “push for urgent progress”

References
Simon Tisdall and Mark Townsend, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 95 of the invasion, The Guardian, 29 May 2022
Samantha Lock, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 96 of the invasion,”  The Guardian, 30 May 2022
Ukraine receives Harpoon missiles and howitzers, says defence minister,” Reuters, 29 May 2022
Some 10,000 Russian troops in Ukraine's Luhansk region, governor says,” Reuters, 28 May 2022
Ukraine's Kalush Orchestra raises $900,000 for military by auctioning Eurovision trophy,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Ukraine blew up a dam to stop the Russian advance on Kyiv, some homes remain flooded,Reuters, 29 May 2022
Max Hunder and Mari Saito, “Ukrainian defenders hold out in Donbas city under heavy fire,Reuters, 30 May 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy visits frontline in first official appearance outside Kyiv since invasion,Reuters, 30 May 2022
Ronald Popeski, “Donbas is an 'unconditional priority' for Russia, Lavrov says,” Reuters, 30 May 2022
Russia claims capture of strategic town as fighting rages in east – as it happened,” The Guardian, 30 May 2022
Russia needs huge financial resources for military operation - finance minister,Reuters, 28 May 2022
Russia pummels eastern towns in bid to encircle Ukraine forces,” Reuters, 29 May 2022
Russia shows off Zircon hypersonic cruise missile in test-launch at sea,Reuters, 28 May 2022
Ship to take metal from Mariupol to Russia; Kyiv decries looting,Reuters, 28 May 2022
Russia's Gazprom continues shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine,” Reuters, 29 May 2022
Russia, Serbian presidents agree on further gas supplies, Kremlin says,” Reuters, 29 May 2022
Macron, Scholz urge Putin to release Azovstal fighters,Reuters, 28 May 2022
G7 working to resume grain exports from Ukraine, UK's Johnson tells Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 28 May 2022
EU unity on Russian sanctions 'starting to crumble', German minister says,” Reuters, 29 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

GERMANY
The finance ministry agrees to constitutional change, enabling USD 110 billion defence fund
On 29 May, Germany's finance ministry stated that Berlin would undergo a constitutional change to accommodate the credit-based special defence fund of EUR 100 billion. The money will eventually increase Germany's defence budget to more than its EUR 50 billion benchmarks. This would further help Germany achieve the NATO targeted spending of two per cent of economic output on defence. Germany's ruling coalition, centre-right opposition with centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), and Greens said they had reached the required two-thirds majority to exempt the defence fund from a constitutional debt brake. ("Germany to change constitution to enable $110 billion defense fund," Reuters, 30 May 2022) 

SERBIA
President Vucic inks three-year gas deal with Putin
On 29 May, Serbia's president Aleksandar Vucic announced the agreement about a three-year gas supply with Russia. He said: "I can not speak about the price now, all details will be agreed upon with Gazprom." Russia's Gazprom gas supply contracts with Serbia expire on 31 May. Serbia also aims to join the EU; however, its current policies with Russia have brought it under pressure. Serbia, back in 2008, had handed over its gas and oil sectors to Russian entities of Gazprom Net and Gazprom. ("Serbia's Vucic says he agreed a three-year gas supply contract with Putin," Reuters, 29 May 2022)

The UK
Preparations to celebrate Queen's Platinum Jubilee underway
On 30 May, a report by Reuters stated that the UK was preparing to celebrate Queen Elizabeth's 70 years on the throne. The celebration would include a range of military parades, church series, street parties, and a pop concert right outside the Buckingham Palace. The UK has scheduled a four-day weekend for the events from 02 to 05 June. Prime minister Boris Johnson said: "I hope that in the coming days we can ... show with every bonfire, with every concert and street party and aerobatic display, a love and a devotion to reciprocate the love and devotion and leadership she has shown to the whole country over seven decades." (Michael Holden, "Britain prepares to celebrate Queen Elizabeth's Platinum Jubilee," Reuters, 30 May 2022) 

REGIONAL
Turkey's president Erdogan calls Finland and Sweden terrorist-supporting countries
On 29 May, Turkey's president Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara would not agree to "terrorism-supporting" countries joining NATO. He added: "For as long as Tayyip Erdogan is the head of the Republic of Turkey, we definitely cannot say 'yes' to countries which support terrorism entering NATO." His latest comments indicated a continued opposition of Turkey to the two countries joining the Western alliance. Sweden's foreign minister Ann Linde said that the diplomatic efforts were continuing. Turkey has been challenging Sweden and Finland for harbouring groups related to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and other militant groups. (Daren Butler, "Erdogan says he won't let 'terrorism-supporting' countries enter NATO," Reuters, 29 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Beijing and Bern decide on halting trade talks due to human rights issues
On 29 May, the free trade talks between China and Switzerland stalled because of Bern's critical view of Beijing's human rights issues. In 2013, China and Switzerland had agreed and signed a free trade agreement, making it one of the first such deals in Europe. The agreement helped both the countries mutually and contributed to an increased trade over the years. Switzerland has been pushing for the extension of tariff reductions on products and sustainable futures. However, according to Switzerland's secretariat for economic affairs, China has not engaged in the same. The issues arose as Switzerland's parliament denounced the forced labour issues of Uyghurs in China. ("China-Switzerland trade talks stall over rights issues, Swiss newspapers report," Reuters, 29 May 2022)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #213 I 28 May 2022, Saturday

Belarus: A new front of war amid heightened nuclear tensions | War in Ukraine: Day 93

UK signed first trade agreement at the state level; 25 years of the founding act of NATO-Russia; Water level threat in Spain's National Park

Photo : Sputnik/Ramil Sitdikov/Kremlin/Reuters


IN FOCUS
Belarus: A new front of war amid heightened nuclear tensions
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

On 26 May, Belarus’ president Alexander Lukashenko announced the creation of a new military command for the south part of the country that shares a border with Ukraine. Lukashenko added: “A new front has opened and we can’t fail to pay attention to it.” This comes as Ukraine’s general staff claimed that Russia had deployed Iskander-M nuclear-capable missiles in the Brest region of Belarus. The region borders Ukraine and would be an added threat to Kyiv as the West continues its arms supplies to Ukraine. The Iskander-M missiles are short-range ballistic missile systems and could easily attack Ukrainian targets due to their proximity to the border. 
 
What are the inferences from the recent updates?  
First, possible nuclear confrontation. Since Russia’s president Vladimir Putin deployed nuclear-capable missiles on Belarusian territory, it has tightened tensions of a possible nuclear war. As a result, the region of Brest has become a potential flashpoint for a nuclear confrontation. The US has owned and deployed nuclear weapons in Europe since the mid-1950s and according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Washington has an estimated 100 nuclear weapons stored across five NATO member states. The US has these bases located in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey. Even though these bases are not geographically connected to the war fronts, these nuclear missiles have the capabilities of reaching targets through dual-capable NATO-designated fighter jets. 
 
Second, a warning to the West. Putin has been warning of nuclear threats since the West started supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine. However, the deployment of nuclear weapons on the border is a step up from just warnings and threats to the possibility of a direct confrontation. Lukashenko also renewed his calls on the West to halt their weapons supply to Ukraine and “prevent a regional conflict in Europe from escalating into a full-scale world war.”
 
Third, a new front of war. On 27 May, Belarus’ defence minister Viktor Khrenin also announced that Lukashenko had agreed to create militias to boost the country's defence. The decision was taken at the annual assembly of military security and state defence. This also comes as Lukashenko announced a new military command for the country’s south. Thus, it could be speculated that Belarus and Russia are preparing for a possible new front of the war in the north. This would be a shift from Russia’s focus on the southern and south-eastern parts of Ukraine that it was currently focusing on.
 
Fourth, tactics of distraction. With Ukraine launching counterattacks and winning back areas slowly near the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions. The buildup on the Belarus border could also be interpreted as a tactic of distraction to push the war from a single front to a two-front war straining Ukraine’s resources and military. This comes as Russian forces were performing poorly in urban terrain operations On 27 May, nor were they successful in advancing towards the Izyum area near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border On 26 May. 

References

Lukashenko orders new military command for south of Belarus, bordering Ukraine,” Reuters, 28 May 2022  
Ukraine conflict updates,” Institute For The Study Of War, 27 May 2022
Militia contemplated as way to inflate Belarusian army personnel numbers,” BELTA, 27 May 2022
Fact Sheet: U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe,” Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 18 August 2021


War in Ukraine: Day 93
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 27 May, the governor of the Kharkiv region, Oleh Synehubov reported that there was heavy fighting in the north and northeast of the city once more. He said that Russia’s forces were again targeting civilians and that at least seven have been killed and 17 have been injured.
 
Ukraine’s governor of the Kherson region, Hennadiy Laguta, said that Russian forces were fortifying their defences in the north of Crimea. He also said that the humanitarian condition of the region was in extremely bad shape, and other than a 200-car convoy that could leave on 25 May, no other humanitarian corridors could be established in the region to evacuate the people stuck there.


The governor of the Luhansk, Serhiy Gaidiai also gave an update about Russia’s aggression in his region. He said that Luhansk has almost fallen to Russia and Ukraine’s forces might have to retreat from the few pockets in the region where they are still trying to hold on. Referring to the near-surrounded cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk he said: "We will have enough strength and resources to defend ourselves. However, it is possible that in order not to be surrounded, we will have to retreat.”

In an address to an Indonesian think tank, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was definitely not eager to talk to Russia's president Vladimir Putin. But, he also acknowledged that given the condition of Ukraine and how the war was progressing, it might be necessary to talk to the Russian leader. He said: “What do we want from this meeting... We want our lives back... We want to reclaim the life of a sovereign country within its own territory.”

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

Some people from the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic said that they have gained full control over Lyman. Lyman is in the country's east in the Donbas region where forces from Ukraine and Russia have been fighting for several days. A separatist leader in East Ukraine also said that over 5000 Ukrainian prisoners of war were being held in the Donetsk People's Republic.

On 27 May, Russia's foreign ministry said that they will expel employees at the Croatian embassy. This was a retaliatory move on Russia’s part after Croatia ordered 24 members of the Russian embassy to leave.

115 members of the Rosgvardia have refused to fight in Ukraine. According to court documents, as a result of their dissent, these Russian national guardsmen have been fired.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 27 May, the Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said that Putin has spoken to him recently about benign ready to discuss a prisoner swap with Ukraine. In a 45 minute long phone call, the two leaders also discussed Russia’s supply of natural gas to Austria. Nehammer said he viewed this as an opportunity to confront Putin about the war and its realities. He said that Putin also mentioned how Ukraine was “sabotaging” the process of peace talks and negotiations between the two countries. 
 
Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the impending food. They spoke about ways to get Ukraine’s stock of grains to the rest of the world. Draghi also mentioned that their support is with Ukraine, as was the case with the rest of the European Union countries. 
 
US president Joe Biden, in a speech, accused Putin of trying to wipe out the Ukrainian culture. He also referred to how, with his invasion of Ukraine, Putin had actually catalyzed the rest of Europe to be “Nato-ized.” 

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

The office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said that they have records that 4031 people have died, including 261 children, due to Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. They said that most of these people were killed due to heavy artillery shelling or due to airstrikes. The OHCHR also mentioned that while the recorded number is 4031, the true number is likely to be higher.

References

Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 94 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 May 2022
Russian shelling kills at least seven in Ukraine's Kharkiv, governor says, Reuters, 27 May 2022
Ukraine military may have to retreat from Luhansk cities, governor says,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
Ukraine needs to face reality and talk to Putin, Zelenskiy says,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
Pro-Russia separatists say they have taken East Ukraine's Lyman,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
Separatist leader: more than 5,000 Ukrainian prisoners held in breakaway region, TASS reports,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
115 Russian national guard soldiers sacked for refusing to fight in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 27 May 2022
Russia is strengthening defensive positions in Kherson region -governor,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
Russia expels five Croatian diplomats in retaliatory move,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
Putin says he is ready to deliver gas, discuss prisoner swap - Austria,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
Italy's Draghi discusses unblocking ports with Ukraine's Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
U.N. says more than 4,000 civilians killed in Ukraine so far,” Reuters, 27 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

THE UK
UK signs first state-level trade agreement with a US state
On 28 May, the UK signed its first trade agreement Memorandum of Understanding with Indiana. It is expected to boost the trade relation up to GBP 1.1 billion. The UK also aims to expand the direct state-level trade agreements with 20 other states in the US. This step has been mainly taken as a showcase to the post-BREXIT process and also to break the barriers of direct trade with the US. Since Joe Biden's position as President has been restrictive on signing a trade deal with the UK due to the Northern Ireland clash. According to Liberal Democrat MP, Sarah Olney: “utterly failed to secure the US trade deal he said he would, being left to negotiate with one state at a time with his tail between his legs.” (Joshua Nevett, “Brexit: UK signs first US state-level trade agreement with Indiana,” BBC, 28 May 2022)

NATO
NATO-Russia 25 years of the founding act comes to an end
On 27 May, NATO and Russia marked the 25 anniversary of the Founding Act. The step was taken as a rapprochement to facilitate cooperation and smoother relations. It was signed in May 27, 1997, where NATO announced to disregard the countries that came under Warsaw Pact. Post which the first NATO-Russia council was established to start military cooperation. As a first step, France decided to deliver Mistral assault ships to Russia. Upon Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the deal was called off and the ships were traded to Egypt. In the recent council summit in 2022, which was NATO’s attempt to prevent Ukraine's invasion, the act and the years of cooperation came to a standstill with Russia launching the war in Ukraine. (“25th anniversary of the NATO-Russia Founding Act,” Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2022)

SPAIN
Donana National Park in Spain faces the threat of declining water levels
On 27 May, Doñana National Park located in southern Spain which is one of the largest wetlands in Europe is under extensive farming threat. The scientists have warned that decreased water supplies and depletion of water from strawberry farms have risked the national park. According to Doñana Gate Farmers, spokesperson: “In the municipality of Almonte we have over 4,000 hectares of irrigated land, if they reduce the water allocation by half, we would have to reduce the crop by half, and we would have to reduce over 2,000 hectares of cultivation. That is a real ruin.” The reason behind the effect on water levels was the result of drastic climate change, the national park holds the most special flora and fauna species along with 100,000 hectares of lagoon forests. (“Spain's Doñana National Park under threat as groundwater pumping continues,” Euronews, 27 May 2022)


27 May 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #212

War in Ukraine: Day 92

Louvre museum former head faces trafficking accusation; G7 leaders meet to discuss climate goals

Photo : Reuters/Anna Kudriavtseva


War in Ukraine: Day 92

War On The Ground
On 26 May, Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba shed light on the situation in East Ukraine. He said that it was in terrible shape, given the intensity of the Russian aggression. This was a part of a live question-answer session that Kuleba was conducting with some Twitter users. The deputy chief of the main operations department, General Oleksiy Gromov, also spoke about the same issue. He said that Russia’s forces were starting to encircle Ukraine’s troops in the east, and seizing positions in the last cities that are being held by Ukraine. He also mentioned that Russia has the advantage, but Ukraine’s troops were doing the best they can to hold on.

On 26 May, contradictory statements were released about Russian aggression in Lyman, in Donetsk. A presidential adviser in Ukraine said that he had unverified information about Ukraine had lost control over Lyman, while the armed forces said that the Russian forces were trying to further consolidate their positions in the country. The governor of the region, however, reported heavy fighting in the region while the Russian authorities said that they had gained complete control over the region. 

In the latest war crime trials, two Russian soldiers pleaded guilty of shelling a town in Eastern Ukraine. State prosecutors have asked Alexander Bobikin and Alexander Ivanov to be jailed for 12 years for their actions, while both the soldiers acknowledged that they were both a part of the artillery unity firing at the targets in Kharkiv. The verdict is expected to be heard on 31 may.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 26 May, Russia said that they should blame the West for the growing food crisis. They also reiterated that they are willing to get Ukraine’s stored grains out in the world, if the US and their allies scrap the sanctions, which Russia has cast as illegal. President Putin said that he was thankful that some foreign companies have stopped their business in Russia, as that meant that Russian businesses could now take their place. This comes in the context of companies like Starbucks, McDonalds, Nike and many other such companies withdrawing their services from the country.

Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russian-backed separatists in the breakaway Donetsk region, said that the military operation in the Donbas region should be accelerated even further. He also said that Kyiv has blocked the water supply to some of the key cities in the north and asked for the military action there to be stepped up.

As reported by RIA, Russia’s defence ministry posted videos of an Iskander-K missile being launched against a “military target” in Ukraine. They also gave an update on the condition of the port at Mariupol and said that it has now been completely de-mined. As per the update, civil vessels are now free to use the port.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 26 May, the White House said that the Russian debt default will not be affecting the economy of the country and the global economy too.. The spokesperson, Karine Jean-Pierre said that this was the case, since Russia has already been isolating financially. 

On May 26, Finland’s prime minister Sanna Marin visited Ukraine, and met with Ukraine’s President and Prime Minister. She mentioned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be seen as a turning point in world history. Marin visited Irpin and Bucha and said: “We, Finland, support all the actions of the International Criminal Court to consider these crimes, collect evidence for future proceedings and convict Russia.”

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 26 May, the WHO passed a motion, which condemned Russia, and mentions that it is due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that a health emergency has been created in the region. USA had submitted a proposal originally, citing Russia’s aggression, but Russia had responded by submitting a counter-proposal. The WHO rejected the resolution from Moscow, as it made no mention of their own role in the ongoing crisis.

References
Military situation in East Ukraine is very bad - Ukrainian foreign minister,Reuters, 27 May 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Conor Humphries, “Russian forces edge closer to encircling Ukraine troops in east,Reuters, 27 May 2022
Pavel Polityuk, “Two Russian soldiers plead guilty in new war crimes trial in Ukraine,” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Putin says 'Thank God' some foreign companies have left Russia,Reuters, 26 May 2022
Donbas separatist leader calls for Russia's military operation to be accelerated - RIA,” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Russian defence ministry shows footage of Iskander missile launch - RIA,” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Russia says civil vessels may use Mariupol port, mine danger lifted,” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Steve Holland and Kanishka Singh, “White House expects minimal impact on U.S. and global economy from Russia default,Reuters, 27 May 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Finnish PM says Russian actions in Ukraine a 'turning point',” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Emma Farge, Jennifer Rigby and Mrinalika Roy, “WHO condemns Russia's aggression in Ukraine in rare vote, rejects Moscow's counter-proposal,” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 93 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
Former head of Louvre museum alleged art trafficking
On 27 May, French investigators accused the former head of Louvre museum, Jean-Luc Martinez for art trafficking. As per the reports, a granite stele engraved with ancient Egyptian pharaoh, Tutankhamun was found to be transferred to Louvre Abu Dhabi. The investigation also revealed: “Louvre Abu Dhabi applies a strict international protocol for artworks entering the collection, as outlined in the intergovernmental agreement between Abu Dhabi and France, signed in 2007.” Martinez is charged with “complicity in fraud” and “concealing the origin of criminally obtained works by false endorsement.” Till now Martinez has denied all the charges and accusations. (“Louvre museum's ex-president charged in art trafficking case,” BBC, 27 May 2022)

SPACE
JPL predicts the shutdown of  Elysium Planitia mission by July
On 18 May, NASAs InSight deputy project manager at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) estimated that the French-UK seismometer installed in the mission will soon be turned off. In 2018 NASA sent a mission called Elysium Planitia to observe the inner layers of Mars. The seismometer which helped in collecting data was found to be affected due to Marsquakes which have led to the accumulation of dust. Due to the settling of dust, the meter has become dysfunctional as it no longer can take solar energy, a main source to operate the machine. Hence the scientists despite their efforts to clear the dust have predicted the mission to be shut down by July 2022. (“Nasa InSight: 'Marsquake' mission in its last months,” BBC, 18 May 2022)

REGIONAL
G7 minister gather to discuss on addressing climate goals amidst Ukraine war
On 26 May, G7 ministers gathered to discuss the climate goals, energy and rising food prices amidst the Ukraine war. Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck urged at the G7 talks for stopping the use of coal, and fossil fuels and push towards the use of green energy. Apart from green energy, the talks also focussed on steps towards achieving net-zero electricity sector by 2035 and banning the use of inefficient fossil fuels. According to EU's Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson: “We have to send a clear message that we agree here in Berlin that our green transition remains our priority.” The commission also decided on providing more time to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia to stop the energy imports from Russia. (“G7: Germany urges leading role in coal phaseout,” Deutsche Welle, 26 May 2022)


26 May 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #211

Amnesty Report on death sentences and executions | Slovakia and Hungary's Slana river turns orange

Hungary extends state of emergency; EU to add sanction evasion to crime list; Germany responds to Poland's accusations

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

Amnesty International Report: Death sentences and executions
On 24 May, Amnesty International released its annual report on the death penalty and executions given by countries across the globe with a comparison to 2021. It provides a detailed report on the death sentences, executions, and violations of international law practised by countries across the globe and analyses the trend of increase amongst certain states. As per the Amnesty report: “Amnesty International’s monitoring of the global use of the death penalty in 2021 revealed an increase by 20% in recorded executions and 39% in known death sentences compared to 2020. Eighteen countries executed a total of at least 579 people, and 56 countries sentenced a total of at least 2,052 people to death. However, the 2021 global executions figure was the second-lowest recorded by Amnesty International since at least 2010, in line with the historical trend towards global abolition.”

Key takeaways
First, targeted executions. The death sentences and executions were found to be declared on those who engaged in anti-government protests. To maintain power and support, political opponents, minorities, and ethnic groups were also the targets of the governments.

Second, reasons behind increased executions. The following are the key reasons for the increase in executions and death penalties. One is to suppress the protestor groups and minorities leading to disregard of international human rights and protecting the state. Two, skipping arbitral proceedings and direct sentencing without the choice to appeal. Such direct sentencing was declared under ambiguous reasons, “enmity against god,” political repression, terrorism, conspiracy to carry out violence, and participation in anti-government protests.

Third, abolitionist v. retentionist. The report found that close to two-thirds of countries (144) across the globe had removed the death penalty from its legal practice and only 55 countries remain to practise the execution. Amnesty also reported on parties who do not provide death sentences for any form of crime. The list contained all European countries except Belarus which still opts for the death penalty for ordinary crimes. Apart from this Central Asia region, South Africa and small-island nations had also opted for similar practices. A key development in Sierra Leone, Kazakhstan and Virginia opting to eliminate the death penalty. While the retentionist countries continue to keep the death sentencing and execution as part of law till now against the international standards. It includes Belarus which due to secret state practices, the actual data could not be collected, but it was found to have restarted the use of executions in 2019.

Where does Europe stand?
Belarus has been the one EU member state standing out from the region for the practice of death sentences and executions. Despite condemnations from the UN on sentencing and secret executions, Belarus is found to be continuing it under the Victor Orban government. In the recent report released by the UN, the execution of people without notice to the prisoner’s family members was highlighted. It found Belarus to be violating the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) norms on three grounds. First, the right to life. Second, is the right to individual liberty, and the third right to a fair trial. Excluding Belarus, all the European countries are observed to have abolished the death sentencing and executions from their laws. The abolition has been implemented through three protocols. It facilitates the removal of the death penalty with a provision to bring it back in case of war to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms. Thereby the EU along with the UK adopts the best judicial and legislative practice compared to the US, China and the rest of the world in dealing the ordinary crimes.

References:
Death Penalty 2021: State-sanctioned killings rise as executions spike in Iran and Saudi Arabia,” Amnesty International, 24 May 2022
Egan Richardson, “Amnesty: Executions rise after COVID restrictions end,” Deutsche Welle, 23 May 2022


Slovakia and Hungary's Slana river turns orange, causing environmental degradation 
The Slana river, also known as the Sajo river in Hungary, is environmentally and historically significant. The river runs approximately 230 kilometres, of which 110 kilometres of the river is in Slovakia, and the rest is in Hungary. Unfortunately, the river started turning orange in February due to the outflow of mining waters from an iron ore mine that closed in 2008. The mining company called Siderit in Nižná Slaná operated from 1975 to 2008 until it went bankrupt. Slovakia's state-run mining company Rudné Bane took over the site and implemented necessary measures in 2012, but that did not stop the outflow from causing the ecological disaster. This has also revived calls for proposing groundwater outflows in Slovakia be registered as environmental burdens.

Implications on wildlife
The "orange river," with high iron ore and zinc content, has killed fish and wildlife downstream. However, authorities on both sides speculate if the river is dead as residents only found plentiful carcasses and dead crabs instead of trout, grayling, or chub fish that used to be readily on the Slovakian side. Slovakia’s experts are predicting a large-scale ecological disaster as the high iron ore in rivers covers the fish gills, which leads to their death. However, Slovakia’s state-run mining company Rudne Bane's director Peter Zitnan stated that this was not a poisonous leak. 

On the Hungarian side, the state water authority has been monitoring the river as it only has turned brown occasionally. Nevertheless, due to the substantial dilution, the pollution has not changed the water quality or killed fish. Hungary's politician Anna Donáth of the Momentum party has been spearheading the push for the two governments to take action on the crisis. She called on the governments and said they had "so far stood by idly and watched the ecological disaster unfold." 

Steps taken by authorities in Slovakia and Hungary 

Slovakia's economy ministry stated that it would ensure water would not flow into deeper parts of the mine and let more iron ore-rich water overflow. The ministry also urged the finance ministry to release EUR 200,000 to tackle the situation. Citizens in Slovakia even wrote to the European Commission as local authorities initially did not take action. 

Hungarian residents in the first few villages along the river have urged the government to put measures to deter a spillover of water pollution. In addition, residents are concerned about the wildlife and the fish supplies they use for their diet. Hungarian authorities have also been continuously taking samples at the Sajópüspöki, Miskolc, and Muhi to measure the toxicity of the river.  

Hungary's agriculture minister Nagy plans to visit Slovakia and meet with Slovakia's environment minister. He added: "Let us not forget that it is our common duty to protect the world we have created and to maintain its biodiversity." The Slovak authorities also confirmed that they plan on preparing a procurement to divert the river. This would release the uncontaminated water from the higher levels of the mine directly into the river than overflowing into the mine and then polluting the river. 

References: 
Maeve Campbell," 'Ecological disaster' develops in Slovakia as river contaminated by orange iron," Euronews, 23 May 2022 
"Agriculture Minister Nagy to Visit Slovakia after Depletion of Sajó River Wildlife due to Pollution," Hungary Today, 23 May 2022 
Abraham Vass, "Sajó River Wildlife Endangered due to Polluted Mine Water from Slovakia," Hungary Today, 16 May 2022
Krisztina Fenyo and Krisztina Than, "Slovakia scrambles to stem polluted water that turned Slana River orange," Reuters, 20 May 2022
Tim Gallagher, "Mining and drilling outside Russia is 'not a viable response' to Ukraine war, climate scientists say," Euronews, 19 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 91
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 25 May, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said that Russia is trying to use food security as their leverage. He is of the opinion that Russia is trying to blackmail the international community by talking about the possibility of unblocking the Black Sea ports. They said that they will do this if the sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia are removed.

The defence ministry said that the country is trying to retain control of a major highway to Sievierodonetsk, where Russia’s forces are trying to push in. According to defence ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, they are trying to figure out alternate routes, so that the supply routes to Donbas can be maintained. On 25 May, the military said that Russian forces have shelled more than 40 towns in the Donbas region.

A parliamentarian from Ukraine, Yevheniia Kravchuk said that around 22 million tonnes of grains are being stored in silos but time is running out to supply them to the rest of the world. This comes under the impending threat of a food security crisis and is primarily happening because of Russia’s blockades of the Black Sea ports. She also said that since the next round of harvesting will start soon, there will be no space to store the fresh harvest, unless the older stocks are shipped out.

Another parliamentarian Anastasia Radina said that Germany and other countries in the West must be more prompt with supplying more weapons to Kyiv, as they are at risk of running out of stocks. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, she said, "We have only one choice, and this is to receive modern NATO-style weaponry because we cannot win the war with the Soviet-style weaponry that we have." President Zelenskyy also reiterated the same in his nightly address and said that getting the help of their partners was of utmost importance if they have to sustain the war efforts. He also said that ceding parts of his territory for peace with Russia was out of the question. This was in response to some “symptomatic editorials” that have been suggesting the same.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 25 May, Russia’s parliament voted for a law that will remove the upper age limit for service in the country’s military. This is in the context of the dwindling forces amidst the high casualty of soldiers in Ukraine. The Bill was approved by the State Duma, and the Federation Council. It now awaits the signature of President Vladimir Putin.

Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said that Russia will agree to set up a humanitarian corridor to let vessels carrying food supplies leave the Black Sea ports if some ‌sanctions against the country are lifted. He also said that the food security problem requires a comprehensive approach.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 25 May, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said that they will prepare to send additional aid to Ukraine, for its reconstruction. The EBRD has already pledged EUR 1 billion to the country but said that the donors understand that additional funding is required. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Odile Renaud-Basso said it was imperative that at least a part of the funding given to Ukraine is given as grants and not loans.

The EU proposed that the member countries will have to face criminal charges if they are found breaking the terms of the sanctions against Russia. The European commission released a statement that said: “Today's proposals aim to ensure that the assets of individuals and entities that violate the restrictive measures can be effectively confiscated in the future.” The new law has to be approved by all the member countries, and also get a majority in the European Parliament.

Two fighters of the Wagner Group, from Belarus agave been accused of murdering civillians near Kyiv. They are the first international mercenaries to face war crime charges in Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 25 May, China’s defence ministry said that the joint aerial patrol they conducted with Russia was a part of their routine annual military exercise, and was not directed at any country. This was the first joint patrol they have conducted since Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and took place near Japanese and South Korean air defence zones.

The Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, who is the spiritual head of around 260 million Orthodox Christians in the world, said that the Russian Orthodox Church with their support for Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has let the Christian Orthodox fathers down. Patriarch Bartholomew said: “I did not want the Church of Russia and Brother Patriarch Kirill to be this tragic exception. I do not know how he can justify himself in his conscience.”

References:
Ukraine's Kuleba says Russia trying blackmail with Black Sea blockade offer,Reuters, 25 May 2022
Ukraine says it is fighting to keep control of key supply route in Donbas,” Reuters, 25 May 2022
Time for Ukraine grain exports ebbing as harvest looms says lawmaker,Reuters, 25 May 2022
Ukraine lawmaker calls on Germany to urgently back Kyiv with arms,Reuters, 25 May 2022
Russian parliament scraps age limit for army recruits,”  Reuters, 25 May 2022
Russia ready to set up corridor for ships leaving Ukraine with food, with conditions,” Reuters, 25 May 2022
“Divya Chowdhury and Lisa Pauline Mattackal“EBRD prepares to raise more funds to rebuild Ukraine,Reuters, 25 May 2022
Jan Strupczewski, “EU to make breaking sanctions against Russia a crime, seizing assets easier,Reuters, 25 May 2022
 “China says air patrol with Russia not directed at any country,Reuters, 25 May 2022
Orthodox spiritual leader says Russian church has 'disappointed us' over Ukraine,” Reuters, 25 May 2022
Samantha Lock, Martin Belam and Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 92 of the invasion,The Guardian, 25 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

HUNGARY
Viktor Orban prolongs the state of emergency in Budapest
On 24 May, prime minister Viktor Orban announced the extension of the state of emergency in Hungary due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Orban extended the constitutional amendment giving him the emergency powers, which would have expired by the end of May. The "State of Danger" was already implemented on the accounts of the COVID-19 pandemic. He said that he would protect Hungary and Hungarian families from physical security and financial threats due to the war in Ukraine by any means necessary. Being an ally of president Putin, Orban stated that it would be best for Hungary to take a neutral stance in the war. Many human rights activists opposed Orban's decision to impose the state of emergency as it would reduce the parliament's power and eventually become a new normal. ("Hungary's Orban extends emergency powers, points to Ukraine," Deutsche Welle, 25 May 2022)

THE UK
Volkswagen agrees to settle the diesel emission scandal case
On 25 May, Volkswagen (VW) said it would pay GBP 193 million as a settlement of the class action suit put forward by 91,000 drivers in the UK. The September 2015 "Dieselgate" scandal is the reason for the case against VW by the claimants in the UK. VW cars cheated the official diesel emission test using special software in 2015, which was later discovered in the US. VW had to suffer a high loss in business due to the scandal and lost more than 32 million GBP in-vehicle refits, fines, legal costs, etc. In addition to the settlement, VW also promised to take care of the legal cost of the plaintiffs. Both the parties agree that a settlement would be a better option than a long-drawn, expensive case. However, VW avoided making any admission of liability that could damage the company's reputation by accepting the settlement. ("VW pays millions in 'Dieselgate' settlement in Britain," Deutsche Welle, 26 May 2022)

Identity and language bill announced for Northern Ireland
On 25 May, the UK government introduced the identity and language (Northern Ireland) bill at Westminster to recognize and protect the Irish and foster Ulster-Scots. The bill will grant official status to the Irish language, authorise the use of Irish in courts, and establish two commissioners and an office of identity and cultural expression. The bill is expected to be debated in detail on 07 June. Nationalist party Sinn Féin hailed the proposal as a step forward in fulfilling obligations made in the 2006 St. Andrews Agreement, which preceded the creation of the first Democratic Union-Sinn Féin coalition government. (Shawn Pogatchnik, “UK to make Irish an official language in Northern Ireland,” POLITICO, 25 May 2022)

REGIONAL
EU proposes to add evasion of sanctions in crime list, amid the war in Ukraine
On 25 May, the European commission recommended adding sanctions evasion to a list of EU-relevant crimes and enhancing the regulations for the seizure, confiscation, and sale of assets related to such offences. The proposal comes as Ukraine and several other EU members urge for the reconstruction of Ukraine to be funded by Russian state assets and sanctioned oligarchs. Additionally, the commission is strengthening standard rules for dealing with EU crimes, including extending the grounds for asset seizure without a conviction if the court is confident that the assets result from illicit activity. It also suggests selling assets before obtaining a confiscation order to avoid devaluation. (Paola Tamma, “Brussels to make skirting sanctions an EU-wide crime,” POLITICO, 25 May 2022)

Germany astonished at Poland’s accusation on Berlin’s reluctance to send tanks to Ukraine 
On 25 May, Germany’s spokesperson, Steffen Hebestreit, responded to the president of Poland, Andrzej Duda’s accusation that the Bundestag had broken its promise to send tanks to Ukraine. These tanks would replace those that Warsaw had supplied earlier. Hebestreit stated that Germany’s government had been obvious that it would “have to see what we can deliver.” He further added a definite request from Warsaw to send state-of-the-art Leopard 2A7 main combat tanks to Poland. However, he mentioned that the Bundeswehr has only 50 of these tanks, and more are yet to be manufactured. (Laurenz Gehrke, “Germany ‘flabbergasted’ at Poland’s accusation of broken promise on tanks,” POLITICO, 25 May 2022)


25 May 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #210

Monkeypox in Europe, 100 years of Estonia-Greece relations, & War in Ukraine: Day 90

Feminists group in France protest against Macron’s failed promises; Glencore plc pleads guilty to corruption charges; Aberdeen faces repercussions as it transits to green energy

Photo : Republic of Estonia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs


Monkeypox in Europe: Measures, recommendations and implications
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

What is Monkeypox?
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), Monkeypox is a virus belonging to the Orthopoxvirus genus of the Poxviridae family. The virus is a self-limited disease, and the symptoms last for two to four weeks but is only three to six per cent fatal. It is primarily transmitted through close contact with a carrier, which could be a human, animal, or material infected with the virus. However, it can also be transmitted from one person to another by “close contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets and contaminated materials such as bedding.”
 
It occurs majorly in tropical rainforests, especially in the West African region, and is occasionally found in other regions due to migration. There is no proven effective treatment for the virus. However, it can be controlled using smallpox vaccines and other antivirals, which boost the antibodies to fight against the self-limited disease. 
 

Where is it spreading in Europe?
On 23 May, according to WHO, the spread of Monkeypox in Europe was likely caused by two large sex rave parties that happened in Spain and Belgium. The virus, which was usually contained to Africa and other tropical regions, was restricted as an endemic only to animals. But, it has spread across the globe due to the latest outbreak. Until 23 May, Denmark, Portugal, Spain, France, the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, and Belgium have confirmed cases of Monkeypox in Europe. 
 
Most of the cases have been connected to the two rave parties and other events held in Spain and Germany. In Germany, four cases were confirmed directly linked to exposure to the parties held in the Canary Islands and in Berlin. At the same time, Spain’s health officials are tracking the confirmed cases and checking if the outbreak was caused by the recent Gay Pride event and a Madrid sauna. 
 

Preventive measures against the outbreak
The EU has been urging its members to take precautions on the outbreak by increasing contact tracking, availability of vaccines, finding possible treatments, and ways of diagnosing the cases. In addition, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has recommended a set of norms to be followed by members to focus on the quick identification of potential cases, management of the infected, and operational reporting on the new cases.
 
Antiviral and vaccine supplies are being stockpiled to combat the increasing monkeypox cases and to avoid shortages. The vaccine named Imvanex shot is approved by the US and Canada for protection against the Monkeypox virus but has only been approved by the EU to be used against cases of smallpox. The ECDC has also recommended managing pets at the houses of potentially infected people as it could lead to the transmission of the virus into the wildlife, which would then likely cause an endemic in Europe. 
 

Recommendations by regional & international organisations
The ECDC has rolled out its preventive measures and recommendations to member states of the EU. Meanwhile, the European commission and the health emergency response and preparedness authority (HERA), the European medicines agency, and the ECDC have been jointly collaborating to prepare against the rising number of cases. Furthermore, the EU health security committee also announced a meeting to discuss the spread of the Monkeypox in Europe. The EU stated that it will also prepare an adequate stockpile of vaccines and work towards medical countermeasures as part of the mandate.  
 
On 24 May, the UN stated that the outbreak could still be contained if the WHO and the member states worked towards containing the spread. The UN health emergency also warned of possible stigmatisation as cases were found primarily in men who have intercourse with men. But, clarified, that this was because they were more proactive in seeking healthcare advice than the others who might also be infected. The WHO head of the smallpox team, Dr Rosamund Lewis, also mentioned that even though there were potential vaccines against the virus developed 40 years ago, the stockpiles might have to be refreshed to counter the rising cases. 
 

The implications of the spread
First, racist reporting. On 22 May, the UNAIDS expressed concerns about the public reporting and commentaries on the spread of smallpox in a stigmatizing manner. The organization said that the public reporting on the outbreak reinforced homophobic and racist stereotypes and exacerbated the stigma against LGBTI and African people. 
 
Second, stigmatization among the LGBTQ community. Since the cases have been found dominantly among the bisexual, gay, and other men who have sex with men, the UN has warned of possible stigmatization. UNAIDS Deputy Executive Director Matthew Kavanagh, in response, said: “We appreciate the LGBTI community for having led the way on raising awareness – and we reiterate that this disease can affect anyone.”
 
Third, discrimination towards the African people. An article in Quartz Africa highlighted the emergence of casual racism spilling over in the media due to Monkeypox cases. International media outlets used images of people from Africa to illustrate their news articles about the outbreak. The WHO said the virus was usually found in the tropics from Africa to the US. African journalists have been calling out the causal racism being used and warned them of the implications of racism that could be created due to their reporting. They further suggested using contemporary images from the outbreak in the UK or the US than older images from Africa. 

References
Monkeypox,” WHO, 19 May 2022
Maria Chenge, “Expert: Monkeypox likely spread by sex at 2 raves in Europe,” The Washington Post, 23 May 2022
Helen Collis, “As monkeypox cases rise, European countries urged to take extra steps,” POLITICO, 23 May 2022
Monkeypox outbreak can still be contained, insists UN health agency,” UN NEWS, 24 May 2022
UNAIDS warns that stigmatizing language on Monkeypox jeopardises public health,” UNAIDS, 22 May 2022 
Alexander Onukwue, “Using Black people to illustrate monkeypox stories plays into a racist stereotype,” Quartz Africa, 24 May 2022


100 years of Estonia-Greece diplomatic relations: Four issues
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 19 May, on the completion of 100 years of diplomatic relations of Estonia and Greece, minister of foreign affairs, Eva-Maria Liimets said: “We value international law and the protection of democratic values and principles.” Eva-Maria appreciated Greece’s united stand for Ukraine and highlighted the well-connected bilateral cooperation between both in digital sector, and joint cyber defence contributions. 

1. The historic linkages
First, historic link. After the declaration of independence on 24 February 1918, Greece recognised the Republic of Estonia de jure on 19 May 1922 through a letter from Greek foreign minister Georgios Baltatzi. The first bilateral agreement was on goods and shipping signed on 04 January 1927. Later post the fall of USSR Republic of Estonia was restored along with the diplomatic relations with Greece, as the Soviet annexation of Estonia was never accepted by Greece. In the next decade, with continued state visit exchanges in both Greece and Estonia, the relations boomed leading to a join cooperation in safeguarding the external borders of the EU. Since then, Estonia border guards have been helping Greece to protect its sea borders.

2. Demography
As per the ESPON 2020 research analysis, it projects a continued increase in the population in the Tallinn and hinterland, while a small increase in Tartu. It recommended restructuring of the oil shale industry and state-level policies to invest more towards infrastructure and improving the quality of life. Whereas Greece stands in contrast to Estonia with a growing ageing population. It composes of 24 per cent of the older population in the total count in the EU. The EU Green Deal policies provide both an option to make use of the “transition funds from the EU.

3. Digital cooperation
Estonia is well-known for adopting e-governance methods, online voting, and possessing advanced digital systems for public and private services. It is in dire need of technological automation to improve its manufacturing and digitalising its industries, similarly, Greece also faces the issue in tech automation, hence the collaboration between the both in terms of technology building and evolving digital systems would be an area to further its relations.

4. Economic cooperation
Fourth, economic cooperation. Although Estonia and Greece have not signed any recent economic deals apart from security cooperation, the bilateral relations are observed to have been at peak in 1999. Both have signed close to four agreements for cultural, educational, and scientific cooperation, maritime transport, international passenger and goods transport, memorandum of bilateral Economic cooperation, and tourism.

References
Estonia and Greece celebrate centenary of diplomatic relations today,” Republic of Estonia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 19 May 2022
Estonia and Greece: 100 Years of Diplomatic Relations,” Republic of Estonia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 19 May 2022
Territorial patterns and relations in Estonia,” Espon.eu, December 2020


War in Ukraine: Day 90
By Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 24 May, in a video address to the World Economic Forum, President Zelenskyy has said that the only Russian official he is willing to meet in order to negotiate is President Putin. He expressed his unwillingness to accept meetings with anyone else regarding how to end the war. 

As Russia’s offensive in the Sievierodonetsk region rises, the governor of Luhansk has said that it might be too late to evacuate the civilians from the area. Severe bombardment has been reported in the region, which has been surrounded by Russian forces. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said that 15,000 residents are estimated to be in hiding in the shelters in the city and governor Sergiy Haidai has advised people to not try to escape, but rather stay in the shelters. This is because he believes, given the intensity of Russia’s shelling it will not be possible to gather people and safely evacuate them. The defence ministry reported that Russia’s forces have been trying to break through into Popasna, to capture Bakhmut, along with Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. This will put the entirety of Luhansk under Russia’s control. A defence ministry spokesperson also said that the battles in the east can determine what the fate and outcome of the war finally will be.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the breakaway region of the Donetsk People's Republic in Russia has said that they are trying to work with Russia to form a tribunal to try to the Fighters captured from Azovstal Steel Plant.

Ukraine’s armed forces, are coordinating an effort to send back the bodies of Russian soldiers, who lost their lives in the war. These bodies are being excavated from underneath the rubble of the towns. They are using DNA testing as well as tattoos to identify their nationality. It was reported that the authorities are hoping to send the bodies back in a chilled train, in exchange for prisoners of war.

On 24 May, Kharkiv restarted their underground metro service. The underground was being used as a bomb shelter for the last three months, but now, is finally set to resume service. This possibly marks one of Ukraine’s military's greatest successes in the last few weeks, as they have been successful in pushing Russia’s forces out of the city’s range.

On 24 May, the results from a poll conducted by the  Kyiv International Institute of Sociology were revealed. It said that 82 per cent of the Ukrainian respondents did not want to hand over any part of their territory to Russia, as a part of any peace deal. This means that they are okay with war getting prolonged, but they do not want peace in exchange for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 24 May, the secretary of the Security Council in Russia, Nikolai Patrushev said that they will not be bothered by ultimatums when it comes to obtaining their goals in Ukraine. He reiterated that all the objectives outlined by President Putin will be achieved, and will be done without chasing any deadlines. This was reiterated by defence minister Sergei Shoigu, as who said that the slowing down of the offensive was a deliberate move on Russia’s part to give the civilians enough time to evacuate and also to avoid civilian casualties.

Amidst deteriorating relations between Russia and western countries, Russia has said that they will ban the usage of the services of Russian surrogate mothers. Parliamentarian Vasily Piskaryov said that so far around 40,000 babies born out of surrogacy are being raised by foreigners. The Russian Parliament also passed a bill that gives prosecutors the power to close western news agencies, if their parent countries have been “unfriendly” to Russia.
 
The defence ministry said that they have completed the de-mining of the Azov seaport. In a statement, they said since the forces captured Mariupol and the port, they have removed mines from the port itself as well at the nearby waters. 
 
On 24 May, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov opened up about the Italian Peace Plan. Italian foreign minister Luigi Di Maio has said that they prepared a tentative peace plan,and also discussed it with the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres, but Peskov said that they have not seen it yet. He also mentioned that he was hoping it would be delivered to them soon through diplomatic channels.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 24 MayAt the meeting of the Quad grouping in Tokyo, US president Biden said that the Ukraine war is far more than a European issue, it was rather an issue of global consequence. He also said that Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, draws light on the fundamental issues of international order, sovereignty and territorial integrity. 
 
Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner said that it will be impossible to estimate what the cost of reconstruction and rebuilding the will be. He said that this will be especially difficult since the Ukraine has hardly been talking about reconstruction, as their priority is stopping Russia’s offensive and the removal of the Russian forces from Ukraine’s territory. Linder added that much of the responsibility for providing reconstruction-related aid to Ukraine falls on Europe.
 
Canada’s defence minister, Anita Anand reported that they have bought 20,000 rounds of NATO standard artillery ammunition from the US. This ammunition, worth USD 76.32 million, will be sent to Ukraine to support their war efforts.
 
President of Poland Andrzej Duda spoke about the food shortage crisis, at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He said that Ukraine’s inability to export its grains will have wider consequences on Europe as it might force people from North Africa to migrate to Europe, creating a huge imbalance. 
 
Hungary’s president Victor Orban said that they have introduced the amendment about the emergency powers to deal with the challenges and fallouts from the Ukraine War. Also, in a letter to the president of the European Council, Orban said that they should not be discussing the EU embargoes on Russia, at the summit, next week. He said that since it was unlikely that the bloc will come up with a solution until the current issues are resolved, discussing them would be rather ‘counterproductive.’ 
 
The Head of the European Commission also agreed with the same narrative and said that the summit might not be the best place to negotiate with the member states. Von der Leyen also said that Russia is leveraging the impending food shortage, and will be using it as a weapon in the war. She mentioned that they are using food the same way they use energy, as they know that this will have global repercussions.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

China’s defence ministry reported that as part of an annual military exercise, China and Russa have conducted their first patrol since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in February. The air forced of the two countries conducted a joint aerial patrol over the Sea of Japan, the Western Pacific and the East China Sea. 
 
On 24 May, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa said that the sanctions on Russia were resulting in the bystander countries suffering the most. During his meeting with the German chancellor Olaf Scholz, he said that the African Union was also preparing to foster talks between Moscow and Kyiv in this regard. At a joint news conference, Scholz however, said that it was unacceptable for any country to side with Russia, when it comes to the Ukraine war. This may have been a subtle reference to South Africa's abstention from a UN resolution condemning the war.

References
Zelenskiy says Putin is the only Russian official he is willing to meet with to discuss how to end the war – as it happened,” The Guardian, 24 May 2022
Peter Beaumont, “Too late to evacuate civilians in face of Russian attack, says Luhansk official,” The Guardian, 24 May 2022
Battles in east could decide Ukraine's fate, Kyiv says,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Donetsk leader says Azovstal fighters' trial to be open to Western representatives, Interfax reports,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Ukraine gathers Russian dead in chilled train for prisoner exchange,” Reuters, 25 May 2022
After three months underground, Kharkiv residents move as metro reopens,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Most Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions, poll shows,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Russia not 'chasing deadlines' in Ukraine, says security hawk,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Russia moves to bar foreigners from using its surrogate mothers,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Russian parliament passes bill allowing Moscow to close Western news bureaus,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Russia says it has completed demining of Azov Sea port of Mariupol,” Reuters, 25 May 2022
Russia says Ukraine war slowdown is deliberate, Zelenskiy mocks 'pathetic' comments,” Reuters, 25 May 2022
Russia has not seen Italian peace plan for Ukraine,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Ukraine a global issue, not regional one, Biden says in Asia,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Canada buys ammunition from U.S. to send to Ukraine - defense minister,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Full cost of rebuilding Ukraine impossible to quantify, says German Finance Minister,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Ukraine war could lead to food shortages in Africa, migration problems, says Polish president,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Hungary's government gets emergency powers due to Ukraine war, PM Orban says,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Hungary's Orban says EU summit should not discuss oil sanctions next week,” Reuters, 24 May, 2022
EU summit unlikely to find solution on Russia oil embargo, von der Leyen says,” Reuters, 24 May, 2022
EU's von der Leyen says Russia is using food supplies as a weapon,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
China and Russia hold first military exercise since Ukraine invasion,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
Andreas Rinke, “S.Africa's Ramaphosa: Russia sanctions hurt "bystander" countries,” Reuters, 24 May, 2022
Germany's Scholz says unacceptable to side with Russia on Ukraine war,” Reuters, 24 May 2022
War in Ukraine: Latest updates,” BBC Live, 24 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE 
Feminists protest against the retention of rape accused minister in the new cabinet
On 24 May, the feminist organization Observatory of Sexist and Sexual Violence in Politics held a protest in Paris as the minister for solidarity and persons with disabilities, Damien Abad, was retained. Abad was reassigned his post despite the rape allegations against him. The feminist group also accused president Emmanuel Macron of breaking his pledge to end violence against women by retaining a minister who was accused of rape. The spokesperson for the government, Olivia Grégoire, stated that, like in his first term, combatting violence against women and girls will be a priority for Macron's second term. However, she added that Abad would remain in government and that the judicial system would determine the truth. (Angelique Chrisafis, “Macron accused of betraying pledge to stamp out violence against women,” The Guardian, 24 May  2022)

GEORGIA
Republican governor wins over Trump-backed leader
On 24 May, Georgia’s governor Brian Kemp secured the Republican nomination for a second term, defeating a Trump-backed primary opposition candidate. This lead to Kemp handing the former US president his greatest electoral setback of the 2022 primaries. Despite Trump's efforts to remove Kemp and secretary of state Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Republicans handed him his worst loss yet in his bid to play kingmaker in this year's US midterm elections. Kemp defeated former US senator David Perdue, who was endorsed by Trump, by a margin of 73 per cent to 22 per cent. Voters supported Kemp's conservative policy record, which includes a broad set of voting restrictions passed in 2021. (Shane Goldmacher and Maya King, “Brian Kemp trounces Trump-backed David Perdue in a Republican primary battle for Georgia governor,” BBC, 24 May 2022)

THE UK
Mining company accepts bribery and corruption charges
On 24 May, the mining and commodities trading firm Glencore pleaded guilty to bribery charges in a Westminster Magistrates’ Court and is willing to pay USD 1.5 billion as a settlement. It also admitted to one count of conspiracy to manipulate commodities prices in connection with past market activity, particularly US fuel oil markets. The UK Serious Fraud Office (SFO) reported that it had discovered “profit-driven bribery and corruption” in Glencore Energy UK’s oil operations in five African countries. Between 2011 and 2016, the company’s agents and employees paid bribes totaling more than USD 25 million in exchange for preferential access to oil. According to the report, the bribes were paid in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and South Sudan. (“Mining giant pleads guilty to UK bribery charges,” BBC, 24 May 2022)

Aberdeen’s transition to green energy impacts engineering students
On 24 May, BBC examined the evolving oil industry of the North Sea and its repercussions. Scotland's Aberdeen city was forced to abandon a sector that has provided half a million employees and immeasurable riches to the region as it faced a climate emergency. After the discovery of North Sea oil in the 1960s, Aberdeen boomed. The city now aspires to be a renewable energy capital and a paradigm for how carbon-dependent cities might adapt. Drilling and well-engineering students at Aberdeen's Robert Gordon University (RGU) are still hopeful of pursuing a career in the oil and gas industry. However, most students come from countries where energy transition is not high on the political agenda, and many do not intend to stay in Scotland after graduation. ( Kevin Keane & Nichola Rutherford, “The changing face of the North Sea oil industry,” BBC, 24 May 2022


24 May 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #209

Russia shifting its oil exports from Europe to Asia, increasing its revenue | War in Ukraine: Day 89

Europe records fresh cases of Monkeypox; Poland and NATO conspiring to partition Ukraine says, Lukashenko

Photo : Mary Lou McDonald/Twitter


IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Russia shifting its oil exports from Europe to Asia, increasing its revenue 

The sanctions imposed on Russia have led to a steep rise in the prices of oil and gas exports. This has impacted the Russian economy positively as its oil export revenue has increased by 50 per cent since the beginning of 2022. The International Energy Agency (IAE) stated that the Kremlin generated close to USD 20 billion per month in oil export sales. Russia’s economy is primarily dependent on energy exports and thus has also increased the value of Russia’s ruble as the top-performing currency against the dollar. However, with Europe planning to end fossil fuel dependency on Russia and the West watching over the countries buying oil, the question arises, where and how is Russia exporting its oil? 

Where is Russia exporting its oil in Asia? 
First, China. On 20 May, according to a report by Reuters, China has been quietly purchasing Russia’s oil at bargain prices. This comes as Russia was selling barrels for USD 29, less than what it was compared to the pre-invasion prices. Moreover, China continues importing oil via its pipelines from Russia, bringing the total May imports to nearly 15 per cent of its domestic demand.

Second, India. New Delhi’s imports of Russian oil rose by 23.7 per cent, as Moscow became India’s fourth-largest oil supplier. India primarily imported the cheaper Russian oil to replenish its strategic oil reserves. India also plans to use the cheaper crude oil for further refining and exporting purposes. 

Third, UAE. Russia plans to export about 2.5 million barrels of fuel oil in May to the UAE, 125 per cent higher than April levels. These barrels were primarily heading to Fujairah, the world’s third-largest bunkering hub. UAE is importing refined oil as it can be used to make various bi-products that Abu Dhabi plans to eventually export. 

How is Russia exporting oil, amid pressure from the West? 
First, storing it onboard containers. On 24 May, a report by Reuters mentioned how many Russian flagship vessels on the sea had crude oil stored on them. Reuters reported: “The number of Urals cargoes at sea with no set destination is 15% of the total, also a new high.” This could be seen as a way of transferring oil through the ship-to-ship (STS), not under the radar of the Western countries. Parking these ships across the globe could help quicker sales and offload of Russia’s crude oil. 

Second, Ship to Ship loading. Russia is currently using STS loadings off the coast of Greece to export fuel overseas. Since April, shipments of Russian fuel with the destination to Greece reached 0.9 million tons. According to reports, most tankers find their way to Fujairah, the UAE oil hub. A few other tankers also went towards Indian and Chinese ports. In March, Russia had stored its oil in Singapore’s hub to be able to sell its oil even if the West imposed sanctions. 

References
Phil Rosen, “Soaring oil and gas prices help Russia more than triple its current account surplus to $96 billion, its largest in 28 years,” Markets Insider, 16 May 2022
Julian Lee, “Russia’s Seaborne Crude Oil Exports Keep Coming,” Bloomberg, 24 May 2022 
Russia to send oil rejected by Europe to Asia, other regions, says Novak,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Cargoes of Russia's flagship crude oil at sea climb to record high,” Reuters, 24 May 2022 
Chen Aizhu and Florence Tan, “Exclusive: China quietly increases purchases of low-priced Russian oil,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Russian fuel oil exports to UAE's Fujairah set to spike in May,” Reuters, 13 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 89
By Rishma Banerjee

War On The Ground
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that in the last week, 87 people had been killed by an airstrike in the town of Desna. This is the biggest death toll, in terms of a single airstrike, and considerably more than when 52 people were killed in the attack on Kramatorsk in April. He also said that 50-100 Ukrainians could be dying in the Donbas region every single day that the war continues. 

Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has said that they will not agree to a ceasefire deal that requires them to hand over territory to Russia. This came amidst an increased offensive in the eastern Donbas region and Russia’s claims that Russia is willing to negotiate peace terms. Yermak said: “The war must end with the complete restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

On 23 May, Iryna Venediktova, Ukraine’s prosecutor-general, said that as of that day, around 13,000 cases of war crimes were being probed by the country. A court also sentenced Vadim Shishimarin, the 21-year-old sergeant, to life in prison as he was found guilty of killing a 62-year-old unarmed Ukrainian civilian in the Sumy region.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

Boris Bondarev, a senior Russian diplomat stationed in Geneva, resigned in a rare political protest. He is the highest-level diplomat to resign publicly. He released a public statement saying that he was ashamed of his country’s current stances and actions. He also said: “Today the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy… It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. It serves the interests of few, the very few people, thus contributing to further isolation and degradation of my country. Russia no longer has allies, and there is no one to blame but its reckless and ill-conceived policy.” He also mentioned that his decision had been taken in February itself, but it took him some time to gather the courage to actually uphold the decision.

On 23 May, the deficiency ministry said that they have fired 4 Kalibr missiles from a submarine in the Black Sea. The aim of the attack was to destroy military equipments of a Ukrainian mountain assault brigade.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia will consider the suggestions of renewing ties when such suggestions come from the West. He mentioned the ‘russophobia’ and said that they will now focus on fostering ties with China. 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 23 May, Poland’s prime minister, Andrzej Duda became the first foreign leader to deliver a speech in Ukraine’s parliament. He spoke about how Ukraine must have the right to decide its own future. He also spoke about how giving up any territory to Russia would affect the West too, and how it might be a “huge blow.”

In an interview, Lithuania’s finance minister, Gintare Skaiste appealed to the European Union to set up a fund to assist countries that are facing a deluge of Ukrainian refugees. He drew the example of turkey in 2016, in this regard. He said that setting up such a fund would help the nations welcoming the refugees greatly, as the average cost of sustaining a refugee for a month is around EUR 500.

Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, said that he feared that Poland, NATO, and their support for Ukraine were an ulterior motive to ‘dismember’ Ukraine, into the way it was, before 1939.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 23 May, the UNHCR reported that in a ‘staggering milestone’, the number of global refugees had crossed the red line of 100 million. The high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi said: “This must serve as a wake-up call to resolve and prevent destructive conflicts, end persecution and address the underlying causes that force innocent people to flee their homes.” The agency also said that out of this 10 million, 6.5 million were people from Ukraine, who have been forced to leave the country since February, with the majority of them entering Poland.

The director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, said that while she was not expecting a recession for the world’s major economies, she still could not really rule one out, given the war in Ukraine, and its economic fallouts. She said: “In a short period of time...the horizon has darkened.”

References
Ukraine says 87 were killed in Russian air strike last week,Reuters, 23 May 2022
Up to 100 Ukraine troops could be dying in Donbas each day, says Zelenskiy,The Guardian, 23 May 2022
Ukraine says 13,000 alleged Russian war crimes being probed,Reuters, 23 May 2022
Shaun Walker, “Ukrainian court sentences Russian soldier to life in prison for killing civilian,The Guardian, 23 May 2022
Russia says it fired cruise missiles to destroy Ukrainian weapons, TASS reports,Reuters, 23 May 2022
Jan Strupczewski, “Moscow not sure it needs resumed ties with West, will work on ties with China - Lavrov,Reuters, 24 May 2022
Andrew Roth, ‘Warmongering, lies and hatred’: Russian diplomat in Geneva resigns over Ukraine invasion,” The Guardian, 23 May 2022
Lithuania calls on EU to provide cash for Ukrainian refugees,” Reuters, 23 May 2022
Lukashenko accuses Poland and NATO of plotting to partition Ukraine,Reuters, 23 May 2022
More than 6.5 million people have fled Ukraine, U.N. agency says,” Reuters, 23 May 2022
Diane Taylor, “Number of displaced people passes 100m for the first time, says UN,The Guardian, 23 May 2022
Airstrikes target Mykolaiv and Donbas regions; Ukraine EU bid could take 20 years, says French minister – as it happened,The Guardian, 23 May 2022
IMF chief does not expect recession but it isn't 'out of the question',” Reuters, 23 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

ENERGY 
The EU agrees to implement the Russian oil embargo within a few days
On 23 May, Germany’s economic and climate protection minister Robert Habeck in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum mentioned that the EU would likely approve the Russian oil embargo in a few days. He said that there would not be any immediate impact on Russia's revenue. He pointed out that capping the global oil price would be a massive blow to Russia’s economy as it primarily depends on energy exports. The European Commission and the US are now working on a proposal that suggests they not pay unfixed prices for the oil but rather cap the global price. He said that the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would happen in a few days in the form of the EU’s embargo on Russian oil. ("German economy minister expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days' -ZDF," Reuters, 24 May 2022)

REGIONAL 
OSCE expressed regrets over its failed mission in Ukraine
On 23 May, in an interview with Deutsche Welle in Vienna, secretary general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Helga Maria Schmid described the termination of the programme's special monitoring mission to Ukraine as unfortunate and "heartbreaking." When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, Schmid decided to evacuate international staff and relocate local employees to Ukraine. The OSCE's largest mission to date was in Ukraine. The mission's interim head, Antje Grawe, said that the unarmed monitors had been on duty 24 hours a day, seven days a week. They went on patrols, mostly in eastern Ukraine, to observe and report on developments on the ground. The OSCE was established during the Cold War in the 1970s as a means of improving ties between East and West. Since then, it has concentrated on problems such as arms control, press freedom, human rights, and free elections. (Marina Strauss, “OSCE, crippled in Ukraine, could fulfill its potential after the war ends,” Deutsche Welle, 23 May 2022)

Turkish leader disregards Greece's prime minister's existence 
On 23 May, Turkey’s president Tayyip Erdogan released a statement saying that he does not consider the existence of the Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. His statement was a response to the Greek prime minister allegedly blocking the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey following his visit to the US and meeting president Joe Biden. This comes as both countries’ leaders had agreed not to include a third party in their feud. According to Erdogan, Mitsotakis will no longer exist to him, and Turkey will conduct its business with honourable politicians. Greece will start the procedure to procure F-35 fighter jets from the US by 2030. Greece’s spokesperson Giannis Oikonomou said Mitsotakis defends Greece’s national interest and rights. He further added that their foreign policy would be a “policy of principles,” indicating that there was no foul play.("Turkey's Erdogan says Greek PM Mitsotakis 'no longer exists' for him," Reuters, 24 May 2022)

US delegation to visit Ireland amid post-Brexit trade disputes
On 23 May, the UK foreign secretary Liz Truss was urged by US Democratic congressman Dan Kildee to participate in negotiations with Brussels to settle the unresolved disputes concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol. Premier of Ireland  Micheál Martin. Kidlee urged the UK not to take unilateral action and stated: “The only way we can come to agreement, the only way we protect the incredible progress that's represented with the Good Friday Agreement, is face-to-face negotiation.” The statement comes as a US congressional delegation led by senior Democrat Richard Neil is visiting Ireland and Northern Ireland on 23 May to discuss the post-Brexit trading arrangements. (“NI Protocol: Unilateral action 'will not work', say US politicians,” BBC, 23 May 2022)


23 May 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #208

War in Ukraine: Day 87 & 88

Europe records fresh cases of Monkeypox; Poland and NATO conspiring to partition Ukraine says Lukashenko

Photo : REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration


War in Ukraine: Day 87 & 88
By Rishma Banerjee

War On The Ground
On 22 May, Poland’s president Andrzej Duda visited Kyiv and met President Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy said that Polish citizens visiting Ukraine will be granted the same status as the Ukrainian citizens in Poland. Since the beginning of the war, more than 3 million refugees from Ukraine, who have fled to Poland have been given the right to live, work and claim social security payments in the country.

On the same day, Ukraine’s parliament banned symbols like ‘Z’ and ‘V’ that have been used by Russia’s military to promote the war in Ukraine. An opposition party member, Yaroslav Zheleznyak announced through Telegram that 313 members of the 423 member assembly had voted in favour of banning the symbols. They, however, agreed to Zelenskyy’s call for using these symbols for historic purposes or educational development.

The Moscow View: Claims by Russia
On 22 May, Russia’s Defence Ministry said that they have attacked Ukraine’s east and south, with a target of command centres, ammunition depots, and troops. Major General Igor Konashenkov, the defence ministry spokesperson, said the Russian rockets had hit the southern part of Mykolaiv.

Russia’s state-owned news agency, RIA reported that the Russian-appointed head of Enerhodar town was injured in an explosion and is in intensive care. The town is next to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant and had a pre-war population of over 50,000 people.

Russia has also stopped their gas supply to Finland, over their decision to join the NATO, and for not agreeing to pay in roubles. While the majority of Finland’s gas comes from Russia, gas-only 5 per cent of their annual energy consumption. Finland’s state-owned gas wholesaler Gasum said that they had been warned in advance about the impending stoppage, and then also confirmed after the supply had been stopped.

On 21 May, the defence ministry said that they had destroyed a major batch of weapons and equipment in  Ukraine's Zhytomyr region. They said that the consignments were sent by the US and Europe and were meant for troops fighting in the eastern Donbas region. The attack had been done through Kalibr cruise missiles, launched from the sea.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 22 May, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson in a discussion with president Zelenskyy spoke about the blockade imposed by Russia on Odessa, one of Ukraine’s shipping ports. A spokesperson for Johnson said that Johnson will redouble their efforts to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and do whatever is in its power to ensure that it can continue their export with the rest of the world.

On 21 May, US president Joe Biden signed the USD 40 billion aid for Ukraine. On the other hand, UK’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss said that Britain wants to send weaponry to Moldova, to arm them against potential Russian aggression. She said that she would want to send weapons as per the NATO standard, and are discussing it with their allies.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

Youtube, the video streaming platform has taken down over 70,000 videos and 9,000 channels that have content related to the war in Ukraine. Some ‌videos that were taken down referred to the invasion as a “liberation” movement.

References
Zelenskiy promises reciprocal rights for Poles in Ukraine,” Reuters, 22 May 2022
Ukraine parliament bans Russian war symbols,” Reuters, 22 May 2022
Russia pounds Ukraine's Donbas and Mykolaiv regions,” Reuters, 22 May 2022
Russia-appointed head of occupied Ukraine town wounded in blast,Reuters, 22 May 2022
Russian military says it destroys Western arms consignment in Ukraine,Reuters, 21 May 2022
Russia halts gas supplies to Finland as payments row with the west escalates,” The Guardian, 21 May, 2022
Boris Johnson discussed Russia's blockade of Odesa with Ukraine's Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 22 May 2022
Biden signs Ukraine funding bill,Reuters, 21 May 2022
Britain wants to arm Moldova to protect it from Russian threat, The Telegraph reports,” Reuters, 21 May 2022
Dan Milmo, “YouTube removes more than 9,000 channels relating to Ukraine war,The Guardian, 22 May 2022.
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 87 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 21 May, 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

BELARUS
Lukashenko claims Poland intends to seize pre-world war two territories from Ukraine
On 23 May, president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko expressed concern over what he described as Western attempts to "dismember" Ukraine, referring to NATO. He further accused Poland of intending to seize the Western part of the country in a virtual meeting with president of Russia Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko stated: "What worries us is that they are ready, the Poles and NATO, to come out, to help take western Ukraine like it was before 1939." Referring to the non-aggression pact of 1939 when Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union carved Poland up between them. The majority of Moscow's acquired land is either in Belarus or Ukraine. Kaliningrad, once German East Prussia, became a Russian exclave. (“Lukashenko accuses Poland and NATO of plotting to partition Ukraine,” Reuters, 23 May 2022)

FRANCE
Left bloc slightly below of Macron’s party in a recent poll
On 23 May, France's president Emmanuel Macron's "Renaissance" party pulled ahead of the left coalition "Nupes" in the June parliamentary election, according to a recent poll. They are likely to win the lower parliamentary election as they are 28 per cent ahead of 27 per cent of the left bloc consisting of far-left La France Insoumise, the green party and the socialist party. There would be two rounds of the election taking place, one on 12 June and another on 19 June. It's been a week since Macron appointed Elisabeth Borne as his prime minister, the first woman to be appointed in the position in thirty years. (“Poll: Macron's group slightly ahead of left-wing rival in French June parliament vote,” Reuters, 23 May 2022)  

REGIONAL
New cases of Monkeypox infection were recorded in Denmark Spain and Portugal
On 23 May, Denmark reported its first case of monkeypox infection in an adult male who had recently returned from a vacation to Spain, according to a statement released by the health ministry. The infected person is presently in isolation and officials are in contact with any close contacts. Health minister Magnus Heunicke stated that they are monitoring the situation closely and preparing for a possible increase in the infection rate. On the same day, Portugal registered 14 new cases of monkeypox infection, totalling 37. In Spain, Madrid recorded four more infection cases and 38 are suspected to have been infected. (“Denmark registers first case of monkeypox infection,” Reuters, 23 May 2022; “Portugal reports 14 new confirmed monkeypox cases, total at 37,” Reuters, 23 May 2022)

The UK and Lithuania sign a defence and security collaboration
On 23 May, the UK and Lithuania signed a joint declaration to boost defence and security cooperation amid the fear of invasion by Russia. The Baltic countries fear that president Vladimir Putin would not stop with just Ukraine but rather might hope to redraw the map of Europe. Countries like Lithuania, which is a NATO member, fear that the Russian aggression would turn toward it next. The declaration would be a defence collaboration among both nations and also would increase its resistance to threats from Russia and China. They strongly stand up against the Russian invasion and support Ukraine amid the war. Both countries avidly support and voice out freedom, sovereignty and democracy. (“UK, Lithuania boost defence collaboration amid fears of Russian aggression,” Reuters, 23 May 2022)


21 May 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #207

War in Ukraine: Day 86

Macron reshuffles cabinet; Slana river in Slovakia turns orange due to contamination; Ankara’s NATO objections spillover on US-Turkey relations

Photo : REUTERS/Marton Monus


War in Ukraine: Day 86
By Rishma Banerjee

War On The Ground
On 20 May, the finance ministry of Ukraine said that they have received USD 530 million from a fund set up by the World Bank. The fund got grants from the US and the UK and has now reached the state budget. The statement released by the ministry also said that the funds will be used for social, humanitarian, and health-related issues, and to support the internally displaced people.

The prime minister of Ukraine, Denis Shmyhal confirmed that the EU has sent EUR 600 million to Ukraine. This is a part of the Macro-Financial Assistance Program. Shmyhal also thanked the European Commission and president Ursula von der Leyen, for their continued support.

On 19 May, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Russian forces have wreaked havoc in the industrial regions of Donbas. He also mentioned the 12 casualties in Severodonetsk and how the areas were now akin to hell. He said: “(There are) constant strikes in the Odesa region, in the cities of central Ukraine. The Donbas is completely destroyed… This is a deliberate and criminal attempt to kill as many Ukrainians as possible, to destroy as many houses, social facilities, and enterprises as possible.”

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

President Putin issued a warning that cyber attacks on their system have gone up considerably since their invasion in Ukraine. He said that they now have to reduce their dependency on foreign software and hardware, in order to mitigate the attempts on disabling Russia’s ‘critical information infrastructure.’

The defence minister, Sergei Shoigu said that almost 2000 soldiers from Ukraine, who were holed up in the Azovstal steel plant, have surrendered. Moscow has been revising their numbers every day, and Russia and Ukraine have given different estimates of the number of evacuees from Mariupol.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 20 May, the assistant secretary for aviation and international affairs, Carol Petsonk reported that a huge US cargo ship set sail from Belgium to Germany. The cargo has been divided into two sections. One will carry the personal vehicles of the people who will start serving as a part of the troops in Europe, and the other half includes military and defence equipment and vehicles to provide medical supplies. 

Canada said that it will be imposing sanctions on 14 Russian individuals who are close associates of Vladimir Putin. They mentioned that this additional set of sanctions will also ban the import and export of some luxury goods from Russia. The export ban will include goods like footwear, luxury clothing, and jewellery, while the import ban will include alcoholic beverages, seafood, and non-industrial diamonds.

Germany’s defence ministry said that they will deliver 15 Gepard tanks to Ukraine. The tanks will reach by July. The defence minister, Christine Lambrecht said that they reached that decision after a conversation with Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.

On 19 May, in an address to the UN security council, Blinken requested Russia to lift its blockades of the ports in Ukraine. Referring to the growing food crisis in the world, he said that Russia was using food as a weapon in Ukraine, but it was ending up harming not just the people of Ukraine, but the entire world at large. 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

Amidst the growing food crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the African Development Bank has approved an emergency food production facility. According to a statement by the bank, the USD 1.5 billion worth facility will help 20 million farmers to avoid the crisis to a certain extent.

The finance ministers of the G7 countries came to an agreement about sending USD 18.4 billion to help Ukraine in paying its bills in the coming months. A draft communique released by the group says: “We will continue to stand by Ukraine throughout this war and beyond and are prepared to do more as needed.”

On 20 May, the UN high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi said that while focusing on the Ukraine crisis was of utmost importance, states should not ignore the other crises in the world. He said that the war has already raised the number of displaced people, and from the 84 million in 2021, it was progressing towards a ‘red line’ of 100 million people who have been forced to leave their homes. However, he urged countries to not compromise on their overseas development aid. This, he said, will exacerbate the crisis in other places and will backfire.

References
Ukraine says it gets $530 million in U.S., UK grants from World Bank fund,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Ukrainian PM says EU disburses 600 million euros to Ukraine,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy says Donbas region has been completely destroyed,”  Reuters, 20 May 2022
Russia says almost 2,000 Ukrainian fighters from Azovstal have surrendered so far,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Putin promises to bolster Russia's IT security in face of cyber attacks,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Blinken accuses Russia of using food as a weapon in Ukraine,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Cargo vessel set to ship U.S. medical, defence supplies towards Ukraine,”  Reuters, 20 May 2022
Canada imposes additional sanctions on Russian oligarchs, bans some luxury goods trade,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Berlin to deliver first 15 Gepard tanks to Ukraine in July, defense minister says,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
“African Development Bank approves $1.5 billion emergency food facility,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Leigh Thomas and Francesco Canepa, “G7 agree on $18.4 bln to keep Ukraine running, ready with more,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Philip Blenkinsop, “Don't forget other crises with Ukraine focus, UN warns,” Reuters, 20 May 2022


IN BRIEF

By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Cabinet reshuffle takes place ahead of parliamentary elections
On 20 May, president Emmanuel Macron reshuffled his cabinet and retained his finance minister Bruno Le Maire and interior minister Gerald Darmanin. France’s current ambassador to the UK, Catherine Colonna, was appointed as the new foreign minister. In addition, Agnes Pannier-Runacher was promoted to energy minister from junior minister for industry. She will be in charge of recovering the country’s struggling nuclear sector, speeding up the deployment of additional renewable energy, and formulating France’s response to the gas crisis and public outrage over rising energy prices. (Elizabeth Pineau, “France's Macron opts for continuity in government reshuffle,” Reuters, 21 May 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Slana River contaminated by iron ore mine, killing numerous fauna

On 20 May, polluted water from an iron ore mine in eastern Slovakia has coloured the Slana River orange, killing fish and animals. The river flows into Hungary and is considered a fast-developing ecological disaster. Rudne Bane mining company stated that the water streaming into the river was underground water emerging from a flooded iron ore pocket mined until 2008. However, the Slovak Environment ministry said that despite the river’s red-orange colour, examinations at the closest point to the Hungarian border revealed that levels of potentially toxic contaminants did not exceed acceptable levels. (Krisztina Fenyo and Krisztina Than, “Slovakia scrambles to stem polluted water that turned Slana River orange,” Reuters, 20 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Turkey and US relations in stressed due to its objection to Sweden and Finland joining NATO
On 20 May, the US state department said Turkey's objection to Sweden and Finland joining NATO is not a bilateral matter between Washington and Ankara. While the dispute is technically between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey, analysts believe the president of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, is seeking to manipulate the situation to get Washington to address some of the long-standing concerns that have strained bilateral relations between the two NATO members. These problems include eliminating US assistance for Syrian Kurdish militias that Ankara considers terrorists, easing US sanctions imposed after Ankara purchased the Russian S-400 defence system, and perhaps expediting Ankara's request for F-16 fighter jets. (Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. says Turkey's approach to Sweden, Finland NATO bid not a bilateral topic,” Reuters, 21 May 2021)


20 May 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #206

Circumventing its sanctions, the EU drafts legal plans to buy Russian gas | War in Ukraine: Day 85

The UK’s energy firms refuse to pay windfall taxes; Germany’s former chancellor Schroder exempted from state privileges

Photo : REUTERS-Loren Elliott


IN FOCUS

Circumventing its sanctions, the EU drafts legal plans to buy Russian gas
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

On 17 May, Reuters reported that the European Commission said it plans to open payment accounts at a Russian bank. This would allow states dependent on Russian energy to pay for their gas without breaching the EU’s sanctions against Moscow. The EU clarified that its previous guidelines did not prevent companies from opening an account at Gazprom which would allow them to continue purchasing Russian gas. 

 
Disclaimers included 

While paying it to the Russian bank, the companies would have to make it clear that they were paying in EUR or USD. This was according to the obligations stipulated under the existing contracts between the company/entity and Moscow. However, according to Russia’s decree, two separate accounts would be needed, one to accept the foreign currency and the other to convert it into rubles. But, the new draft plan would place the ball in Russia’s court as Moscow would be legally bound to accept the payments made to a Russian central bank as per the contracts. 
 
Thus, the draft plan would help states dependent on Russia’s gas to continue importing it. This comes as Russia cut Bulgaria and Poland’s supplies as they refused to pay in roubles, and the deadline for payments of other states was also closing in. Bloomberg further reported: “Gazprom provided buyers with additional assurances that the central bank would not be involved in the conversion process.”

 
Divisions within 

On 17 May, Finland’s energy company, Gasum, said that it would not make payments under the proposed plan. Gasum CEO Mika Wiljanen said they would instead take arbitrary proceedings against Russia. While France’s energy firm Engie said that the next payment would be made in EUR by month-end. Germany’s Uniper stated that it would follow the EU’s draft plan to pay for gas in EUR. 
 
Way forward for the EU 

On 18 May, the European Commission also unveiled a EUR 210 billion plan to lessen the bloc’s reliance on Russian oil. The plan hopes to fasten the transition away from Russia’s fossil fuels to green energy by 2027. The plan consists of three steps: First, a switch to import more non-Russian gas, second, a faster rollout of renewable energy, and third, more effort to save energy. 

References
Ewa Krukowska and Alberto Nardelli, “EU Drafts Plan for Buying Russian Gas Without Breaking Sanctions,” Bloomberg, 20 May 2022
EU clarifies how companies can legally pay for Russian gas, ENI and RWE open bank accounts,” Euractiv, 17 May 2022 
Ewa Krukowska and Alberto Nardelli, “EU gives companies green light to buy gas from Russia,” Al Jazeera, 16 May 2022 
Harry Dempsey, Niko Kommenda, Leslie Hook, Chris Campbell, Caroline Nevitt and Sam Joiner, “Can the EU wean itself off Russian gas?” Financial Times, 19 April 2022 
Kate Abnett, “EU says legal Russian gas payments possible, warns against rouble accounts,” Reuters, 17 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 82
By Rishma Banerjee
 

War on the Ground
On 18 April, the first war crime trial was held.. Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old tank commander from Russia has been accused of killing an unarmed 62-year-old Ukrainian. Shishimarin pleaded guilty on Wednesday and even apologised to the widow of his victim.

On 19 April, Ukraine’s minister of environmental protection and natural resources, Ruslan Strilets said that they will ask for reparations from Russia for the huge environmental damage that their invasion has caused in the country. He spoke about how entire ecosystems have been destroyed and natural habitats of the wildlife have been contaminated due to the Russian advances.

 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 19 May, Russia’s foreign ministry reported that they will expel five Portuguese diplomats from Russia. This is in response to Lisbon ordering the eviction of 10 Russians from their country. The foreign ministry said that the diplomats will have to leave within 14 days of them receiving the corresponding note. 

Russia’s deputy foreign minister also spoke about the food crisis and said that the sanctions against Russia were one of the primary reasons for the intensifying food crisis. Moscow has said that they will consider lifting the blockades from the occupied ports in Ukraine if the sanctions against their country are removed. 

 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 19 May, the US Senate passed the bill which will provide USD 40 billion for additional aid to Ukraine. So far, they had given Ukraine USD 3.9 billion worth of military assistance, as weapons. The previous instalment included howitzers, anti-aircraft Stinger systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles, ammunition, and armed drones. USD four billion will be for international disaster assistance needed for the humanitarian crisis. The package also has USD nine billion for economic support; this is the money that can be used to combat the rising food security crisis. USD 200 million of this package is for the US state department’s diplomatic programs that are to respond to the crisis in Ukraine. While a significant amount of money is also kept for security assistance, the package includes USD 8.7 billion for the US to replenish the equipment stocks sent to Ukraine. An additional USD 11 billion has been allotted in the Presidential Drawdown Authority, with which the president can authorize the transfer of articles and services without congressional approval, in case of an emergency. 

The chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, general Mark Milley had a phone call with Russia's chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov. While the specific details of their correspondence has been kept confidential, General Milley’s spokesperson said that they talked about ‘several security-related issues of concern’. They have also agreed to keep the communication lines open.

On 19 May, Switzerland’s department of foreign affairs said that they will be reopening their embassy in Kyiv. Five staff members, including the ambassador, are set to return to the office. 

Italy’s prime minister, Mario Draghi, in an address to the Senate said that achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine was of utmost importance. He mentioned that Moscow must be brought to the negotiating table, but did not speak about whether Italy will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine.

On 19 May, the European Parliament suggested that the former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder be blacklisted. Schroeder is on the board of Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft. This suggestion is also a way to make him not take up a position with Gazprom. He is allegedly the one that sponsored the building of gas lines between Germany and Russia, thus increasing their dependence on Moscow. In a meeting with EU leaders, the current chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the EU must prepare to assist Ukraine in rebuilding their country after the war is over. He also pointed out that the reconstruction of Ukraine will be an extremely expensive process. He suggested collective action on the EU’s part and said: “We as the EU must start laying the ground for a solidarity fund financed by contributions from the EU and its partners.”  

 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida said that they will double the financial aid to Ukraine. The revised amount will come to USD 600 million, and will be sent in a coordinated move with the World Bank.

On 19 May, the G7 member countries came to an agreement about sanctioning USD 18.4 billion to Ukraine. At the meeting in Germany, it was reiterated that the G7 member states are standing behind Ukraine and are ready to provide any form of assistance that they need to "get through this.” At the meeting, the German finance minister said that their country will pledge EUR 1 billion to help Ukraine with its short-term liquidity needs.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said that they have begun registering the hundreds of Ukrainians who have surrendered at the Azovstal Steel Plant, in Mariupol. These people have been taken in by Russia as prisoners of war, and are being taken to Russia-backed territories in the country. The ICRC clarified that they are just tracking the fighters leaving the plant, including the wounded ones, but are not responsible for transporting them to where they are being held.


References
Pavel Polityuk, “Russian soldier pleads guilty in war crimes trial in Ukraine,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Ukraine to seek damages from Russia over huge environmental damage,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Russia expels five Portuguese diplomats in retaliatory move,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Daphne Psaledakis, “Factbox: The big items in Washington's $40 billion Ukraine aid package,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Top U.S., Russian generals speak for first time since Ukraine invasion,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Switzerland to reopen Kyiv embassy after two and a half months,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Italy's Draghi urges Ukraine ceasefire, skirts issue of arms shipments,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
German ex-Chancellor Schroeder under EU pressure over Rosneft, Gazprom,” Reuters, 20 May 2022
Germany's Scholz proposes EU solidarity fund to rebuild Ukraine,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Germany pledges 1 bln euros in grants to help Ukraine - finmin,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Japan says to double fiscal support for Ukraine to $600 mln,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 86 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 19 May 2022
Natalia Zinets and Jonathan Landay, “G7 pledges billions for Ukraine 'to get through this',” Reuters, 19 May 2022
ICRC begins registering hundreds of prisoners of war from Azovstal,” Reuters, 19 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Padmashree

THE UK
Energy firms refuse the government's plans to levy a windfall tax
On 19 May, oil and gas producers rejected proposals to levy a windfall tax on exceptional profits for the year 2022. The sector's representative, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), estimates that producers are paying EUR 7.8 billion in taxes this year, which is up from EUR 3.1 billion in 2021. According to the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, the levy on UK fossil fuel energy producers is likely to be about twenty times higher this year than it was in 2020. Prices plunged in 2020, at the outset of the epidemic, and manufacturers suffered losses. However, profits have surged now due to steep rises in energy prices, prompting proposals for a windfall tax on such "exceptional" gains. (Douglas Fraser, “Oil and gas industry pushes backover windfall tax,” BBC, 19 May 2022)
 
Police conclude inquiries into the Downing parties scandal 
On 19 May, the UK’s Metropolitan police said they had ended the investigations into violations of the lockdown rules at parties attended by prime minister Boris Johnson. The inquiry resulted in 126 penalties, but the identities of individuals who got them were not revealed. Between 20 May 2020, and 16 April 2021, eight events were found to have broken the lockdown restrictions, according to the police statement. 53 men and 73 women were penalized, with some receiving multiple fines. After being penalized for violating lockdown regulations, Johnson and Treasury head Rishi Sunak drew widespread criticism, even from his own Conservative Party. The Metropolitan Police’s acting deputy commissioner Helen Ball said: “Our inquiry was comprehensive and impartial, and we conducted it as swiftly as we could.” (“UK: Police end inquiry into 'Partygate' scandal at Downing Street,” BBC, 19 May 2022)

GERMANY
Former chancellor Gerhard Schroder striped off state privileges
On 19 May, the Bundestag’s budgetary committee decided to strip the former chancellor Gerhard Schroder of post-office privileges for not terminating his ties with energy firms in Russia. Schroder was the head of government between the years 1998 and 2005; he was stripped of his office and staff as well. The vote by the Bundestag’s budgetary committee came following the European parliament’s call to the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to sanction Schröder for his links to the Kremlin. On the same day, the European Parliament approved a resolution calling for sanctions against European members of the boards of significant Russian firms and politicians who continue to receive money from Russia. (Philip Oltermann, “Gerhard Schröder to be stripped of privileges for not cutting ties with Russia,” The Guardian, 19 May 2022)

NETHERLANDS
Cabinet plans to collaborate to construct windmills
On 19 May, the ministry of economic affairs and climate announced the collaboration plan of the Netherlands with Germany, Denmark, and Belgium to build wind farms. According to the ministry, the target will generate 150 gigawatts by 2050. The given target is expected to increase production by ten times. Although the contribution rate of the Netherlands in the 150 gigawatts remains unclear, four states assure to work together to standardize the regulations. As per the EU is concerned, it aims to achieve 300 gigawatts of electricity through hydro by 2050, but the current capacity stands at 16 gigawatts. (“Netherlands teaming up with Germany, Denmark for more offshore wind farms,” NL Times, 19 May 2022)


19 May 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #205

War in Ukraine: Day 84

Western Europe sees cases of monkeypox; Youth in Sweden reluctant on joining NATO; Conservative parties of US and Hungary strengthen ties

Photo : Anders Wiklund/TT/picture alliance


War in Ukraine: Day 84
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 18 May, Ukraine’s interior ministry adviser, Anton Gerashchenko, alleged that direct talks with Russia were not possible because president Vladimir Putin was not ready for it. On the Telegram messaging app, he said: “The only chance (for peace) is the destruction of the Russian occupiers. As for when they will be ready to accept defeat, I think it’s a matter of months.” Russia, in turn, blamed Ukraine for not cooperating enough to be able to hold peace talks. The last time the two countries had directly communicated with each other was on 29 March.
 
On 18 May, Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo said the suggestion by a Russian official that a Ukrainian nuclear power plant would supply electricity to Russia was completely ‘impossible.’ It released a statement which said that there are no connections between Ukraine’s grid and Russia’s power system, which makes any supply completely impossible.
 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 18 May, Russia’s foreign ministry said that they would expel 85 employees from the embassies of France, Spain, and Italy. This is in response to a similar move by France, Spain, and Italy, who collectively threw out 300 Russians since Moscow invaded Ukraine on 24 February. The foreign ministry also clarified that of the 85 diplomats, 24 were from Italy, 27 were from Spain, and 34 were from France. 
 
Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson at the foreign ministry, said that 959 Ukrainian service personnel had surrendered at Mariupol. Of them, 50 were injured and are being treated for their injuries, while the rest have been sent to a prison colony in Olenivka, a town in the Russian-controlled area of the Donetsk region. The defence ministry also released a video of the wounded soldier in hospital beds receiving treatment. However, it could not be verified whether the captured people spoke under duress. However, most of the soldiers said that they were being fed well and taken care of. 
 
Russia’s finance ministry released data that illuminated that 40 per cent of their defence spending was up in the first four months of this year. According to the reports, Russia has spent almost half of the RUB 3.5 trillion budgeted for defence in 2022. The ministry had initially anticipated a surplus of RUB 1.3 trillion, but given the cost of the war, it seems that they can expect a deficit of at least RUB 1.6 trillion. The government will not use the National Wealth Fund (NWF), an emergency fund, to cover the deficit.
 
On 17 May, Russia said they were now using a new generation of powerful lasers that can burn up drones. Putin has mentioned that one was called Perevest, which is named after a medieval Orthodox warrior monk Alexander Peresvet. Apart from that, nothing much is known about the capacity of these weapons. However, the deputy prime minister, Yury Borisov, said that Perevest was currently widely in use and could be used to blind satellites 1500 kilometers above the Earth.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 18 May, the US senate foreign relations committee approved Bridget Brink as the ambassador to Ukraine. Joe Biden had nominated the veteran diplomat as the next ambassador, and the senate committee unanimously approved it. Brink, if confirmed, will be filling a crucial position that has been vacant for the last three years.
 
The US also reopened its embassy in Kyiv. The embassy had been closed since 14 February, ten days before Russia launched its full-scale offensive in Ukraine. However, the Charge d’Affaires Kristina Kvien returned to the country on 02 May, and since then, they have been preparing to open their offices. Spokesperson Daniel Langenkamp said that they would resume their operations but also mentioned that many diplomats will staff the office, and consular operations will not be resuming immediately.
 
On 18 May, Sweden and Finland formally applied to join the NATO alliance. While they have been historically neutral countries, their decision to join NATO was sparked by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. This step has gained widespread appreciation from most member countries; Turkey remains opposed to it. Ankara also objected to an expedited accession process that generally takes only a few weeks.

The Global Fallouts
International implications of the Ukraine war

On 18 May, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said that they were trying to restore the corridors to export grains as the threat to the global food crisis was rising. In a UN meeting hosted by US secretary of state Antony Blinken, Guterres requested Russia to enable safer corridors for the grains to be exported and the worldwide acceptance of Russian food and fertilisers. Otherwise, he said: “It threatens to tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity, followed by malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years.”
 
The World Bank said that they would offer USD 30 billion to help the impending food security crisis, exacerbated by Russia’s blockades of Ukraine’s ports. The total will include USD 12 billion in new projects and USD 18 billion in projects based on food and nutrition that already exist.
 
India, the world’s biggest buyer of Russian arms, is reportedly looking to diversify their supplies. They are also contemplating on making military equipment locally. Air Marshal Vibhas Pande said that given the turmoil in the geopolitical situation, they are looking for some stability. The only option in that regard is to be self-reliant and self-sustained. 


References
Russia and Ukraine blame each other after peace talks stall,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Ukraine dismisses talk of nuclear plant supplying electricity to Russia,” 18 May 2022
Russia expels 85 diplomats from France, Spain and Italy,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
With troops in Ukraine, Russia's defence spending leaps 40%,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Pjotr Sauer, “Russia says 900 Ukrainian troops sent to prison colony from Mariupol The Guardian, 18 May 2022
Russia posts video of Azovstal fighters in hospital after surrender,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Russia uses new laser weapons in Ukraine, Zelenskiy mocks 'wonder weapon',” Reuters, 18 May 2022
U.S. Senate committee backs Biden nominee to be Ukraine ambassador,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
U.S. reopens Kyiv embassy after three-month closure,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Robin Emmott and Nevzat Devranoglu, “Finland, Sweden apply to join NATO amid Turkish objections,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
U.N. chief in talks on restoring Ukraine grain exports amid global food crisis,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
David Lawder, “World Bank to offer $30 bln as Ukraine war threatens food security,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
India, world's biggest buyer of Russian arms, looks to diversify suppliers,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
War in Ukraine: Latest Updates,” BBC Live, 18 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

SWEDEN 
Sweden's youth show reluctance on Stockholm to join NATO
On 18 May, prime minister Magdalena Andersson's decision to join NATO marked the end of Sweden's 200-year military neutrality policy. While most Swedes favour their country joining NATO amid the war in Ukraine, many young people are more reluctant about Sweden joining NATO. Some youngsters marched on the streets of Stockholm, condemning the loss of military neutrality as a step that would result in greater global warfare. According to a security policy analyst at Sweden's defence research agency Alina Engström, the benefits of quitting the military non-alignment status include the possibility of Sweden being more involved in NATO's defence planning and receiving security assurances. The disadvantages of participation would make Sweden more adaptable in adjusting its security policy. In contrast, it would have to lose some flexibility in its foreign and security policy. (Priyanka Shankar, “Why some young Swedes remain uneasy about joining NATO,” Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2022)

REGIONAL
Western Europe sees confirmed cases of monkeypox
On 18 May, five confirmed monkeypox cases among young men were reported by health officials in Portugal. Originating from Africa in the 1970s, this is the first time the disease has spread to Europe. The disease was confirmed to not be a sexually transmitted virus but instead spreads through intimate physical contact and affects only younger men. Monkeypox is a milder version of chickenpox with one per cent fatality and shows similar symptoms. There were 15 cases reported in Portugal, seven in the UK, 23 in Spain, and one in the state of Massachusetts in the US. All the individuals infected were young men. (“Monkeypox: Portugal reports cases as outbreak spreads,” Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Report by climate scientists states the drawbacks of drilling and mining new sites 
On 18 May, a new study by climate scientists showed that the extraction of oil, natural gas, and coal in new drilling and mining sites could cause an increase in global temperature by more than 1.5 degrees Celcius. The authors stated that drilling and mining new sites were not the answer to the Russia-Ukraine war. The findings also suggested that countries reject licenses to new drilling and mining sites. According to the study, all countries should turn toward renewable energy sources and move away from oil and gas. It also said that there has already been an excessive amount of extraction of oil and gas till now from the earth's surface. The calls were aligned with the objectives of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. (Tim Gallagher, “Mining and drilling outside Russia is ‘not a viable response’ to Ukraine war, climate scientists say,” Euronews, 18 May 2022)

Conservative parties of Hungary and the US attempt to strengthen ties
On 18 May, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán will be the keynote speaker at a special session of America's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Hungary. The conference is held in an effort to strengthen ties between the radical right on both sides of the Atlantic under the banner of the "great replacement" ideology. Orbán made explicit mention of the ideology in a speech on 16 May, claiming that there is a liberal conspiracy to dilute the white populations of the United States and European countries through immigration. This comes as the murderer who opened fire at a store in a predominantly black neighborhood of Buffalo invoked the creed, which is becoming increasingly popular among US Republicans. (Flora Garamvolgyi and Julian Borger, “Orbán and US right to bond at Cpac in Hungary over ‘great replacement’ ideology,” The Guardian, 18 May 2022)

India’s anti-terror agency suspects US made bomb was used against pilgrims in Kashmir
On 18 May, India’s anti-terror body national investigation agency said it suspected the use of a Sticky Bomb in the attack on the bus carrying Hindu pilgrims on 13 May. The use of sticky bombs by Kashmiri militants is a relatively recent phenomenon. In February 2021, during searches in Kashmir in February 2021, Indian security officers seized numerous similar devices. Militants often used these devices against NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. The Indian military discovered US-made M4 carbine rifles from multiple foreign militants dead in different sections of Kashmir after NATO soldiers withdrew from Afghanistan. (Samaan Lateef, “How NATO weapons from Afghanistan are impacting Kashmir's militancy,” Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2022)


18 May 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #204

War in Ukraine: Day 83

Finland’s parliament agrees to join NATO; UK experiences rise in pay as unemployment rate falls; NATO holds military exercises in Estonia

Photo : REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko


War in Ukraine: Day 83
By Rishma Banerjee 

War On The Ground
On 17 May, Mariupol, which had been under siege from the beginning of the war in February, finally fell to the Russian forces. The last of the Ukrainians holding out in the bunkers and tunnels below the Azovstal steelworks surrendered. Russia’s defence ministry reports that 256 fighters have surrendered, among whom 51 were severely wounded, and will be taken to Novoazovsk in the Russian-backed breakaway Donetsk region. The remaining fighters were taken to a prison in Olenivka, near Donetsk. Ukraine has acknowledged the terrific bravery of the defenders at Mariupol, who managed to hold the Russian forces at bay for 82 days, amidst severe bombardment and blockades. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said: "Because Mariupol drew in the Russian Federation's forces for 82 days, the operation to seize the east and south (of Ukraine) was held up. It changed the course of the war." 

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported about his "long and meaningful" phone conversation with France’s president Emmanuel Macron about the war in Ukraine. He said that they had spoken about the evacuation of the military from Azovstal, and how negotiation might be carried on in the future. The two leaders also spoke about fuel supply to Ukraine, France’s assistance to the country, a potential EU membership, and the export of food grains to the world. On the same day, Zelenskyy mentioned that he had a productive discussion with Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz. They spoke about the front line of the war, and about increasing further sanctions on Moscow.

On 17 May, the emergency service of Ukraine’s Chernihiv region said that eight people were killed and 12 wounded due to a Russian airstrike on Desna village. This comes after the region's governor, Viacheslav Chaus, said: "Yes, there are no more occupiers in the Chernihiv region but it is easy for them to reach us. Don't ignore air raid warnings!" The governor of the northeastern region of Sumy, Dmytro Zhyvytsky said that the border guards have succeeded in repelling an attempted Russian incursion by a sabotage and reconnaissance group in the northeastern region of Sumy.

Kalush Orchestra, the band from Ukraine that won the Eurovision song contest, is planning a tour of Europe. This effort will be to raise money for Ukraine's army. Frontman Oleh Psiuk said at a news conference that they will soon announce the specifics of their tour on their social media profiles.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 17 May, TASS news agency reported that a Russian investigative committee would question the fighters holding out at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and have finally surrendered. This will be done to investigate what Moscow calls “criminal cases and surrounding Ukrainian region crimes.”

The speaker of Russia’s parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin said that they will consider banning the exchange of Russian prisoners of war for members of Ukraine's Azov Regiment, who were the last to hold out at Mariupol. Leonid Slutsky, another Russian lawmaker said that Russia should consider the death penalty for the fighters of the Azov regiment, “monstrous crimes against humanity.” The Azov regiment was once a nationalist militia but has since been integrated into Ukraine's National Guard and were the last bastions of resistance against Russian troops in the strategically important port city. As per Russia’s ministry of justice, Russia's prosecutor general has also asked the Supreme Court to declare the regiment as a "terrorist organisation". 

While addressing a meeting with domestic oil managers and government officials, president Vladimir Putin said that it would be impossible for some European countries to stop their dependence on Russian oil. The embargo has been proposed by the newest set of sanctions from the European Union. He said that by putting an embargo on Russian supplies, Europe will risk paying the most exorbitant prices for oil in the world in the long term. This will undermine the competitiveness of the industry.

On 17 May, Russia's defence ministry reported that arms shipments to Ukraine's western Lviv region from the US and Europe have been destroyed by their missiles. 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 17 May, the US announced that it will launch a new programme to capture and analyze if war crimes and other atrocities had been committed by the Russian troops in Ukraine. The US state department made the announcement about the so-called “Conflict Observatory” that will engage in documentation, verification, and dissemination of evidence of Russia’s acts of aggression. Their analyses and findings will then be made available on their website.

The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen in a speech at the Brussels Economic Forum, said that Ukraine’s financial needs were extremely severe. She called for US allies to increase their financial support for Ukraine, saying that given the scale of devastation in the country, the assistance announced so far will not be enough.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner said that he is considering the idea of seizing Russian state assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. He said that he is willing to seize the foreign assets of the Russian Central Bank and this was something that was being discussed by the Group of Seven economic powers.

In an EU meeting of the bloc's defence ministers, Josep Borrell said that if reports are analyzed, it will be seen that Russia’s army has suffered huge losses. He said: "I wouldn't dare to make a hypothesis about how long Russia can resist... If it is true that Russia has lost 15% of their troops since the beginning of the war, this is a world record of the losses of an army invading a country." He also said that the EU will not let Ukraine run out of military equipment and weapons if the war continues. 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

The chief of the World Health Organisation spoke about how health care provisions in Ukraine have been under attack because of the ongoing war. Hans Kluge, who serves as the WHO regional director for Europe, said that every third patient in Ukraine has had issues with access to medicine, every fifth patient needed psychological help and sexual violence was also becoming a common affair. In a news conference, he said that WHO has identified 226 attacks on healthcare in Ukraine, and that these were unjustifiable, and needed to be thoroughly investigated.

UNICEF said that due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost of providing life-saving treatment to undernourished children will rise by 16 per cent. Reportedly, the cost of ready-to-use therapeutic food has already become more expensive and without proper funding, 600,000 more children may miss out on necessary treatment in the next six months.

The finance ministers of the G7 countries deliberated on sanctioning a EUR 15 billion aid package for Ukraine. The package would extend over three months and have a short-term financing arrangement, mainly in the form of grants.

References
Ukraine Eurovision winners to tour Europe to raise money for army,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Hundreds of Ukrainians defending Azovstal plant surrender to uncertain fate,Reuters, 18 May 2022
Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth “
Fate of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers unclear as Azovstal resistance ends,The Guardian, 17 May 2022
Ukraine hails Mariupol defenders as heroes who changed course of war,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Ukrainian president and France's Macron discuss Ukraine's war with Russia,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Ukrainian president and German chancellor discuss war, Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Russian air strike kills eight in northern Ukraine, emergency service says,Reuters, 17 May 2022
Ukraine says it has repelled Russian incursion in Sumy region,Reuters, 17 May 2022
Russian investigators to question Ukrainian fighters who surrendered at Azovstal - TASS,Reuters, 17 May 2022
Russian parliament to consider ban on exchanging Ukrainian Azov prisoners,Reuters, 17 May 2022
Russian prosecutor asks court to declare Ukraine's Azov Regiment "terrorist organization, Interfax reports,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Russian negotiator says Ukraine's Azov fighters 'don't deserve to live’,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Russia says it hit U.S. and European arms shipments in western Ukraine,Reuters, 17 May 2022
Putin says it's impossible for some EU countries to ditch Russian oil now,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Daphne Psaledakis, “
U.S. launches program to capture, analyze evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Macron tells Zelenskiy: French arms deliveries to Ukraine will intensify,Reuters, 17 May 2022
EU top diplomat says if verified, Russia has suffered "impressive losses" Reuters, 17 May 2022
The EU will not let Ukraine run out of equipment, Borrell says,Reuters, 17 May 2022
WHO raises alarm about 'healthcare on a knife-edge' in Ukraine,Reuters, 17 May 2022
U.N. warns of 'catastrophic' child malnutrition due to price hikes, Ukraine war,Reuters, 17 May 2022
G7 finance ministers plan 15 billion euros aid for Ukraine,Reuters, 17 May 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

FINLAND
Parliament approves application proposal for NATO membership
On 17 May, Helsinki’s parliament voted yes to join the NATO military alliance. According to the speaker Matti Vanhanen, out of 200 parliamentarians, 188 voted in favor of the motion while eight voted against it. Foreign minister Pekka Haavisto stated that the decision would not change Finland’s values of seeking peaceful and diplomatic solutions to conflicts. Haavisto added: “Our border would become the border between the military alliance and Russia. New tensions would not be a risk only during the application process but rather a new and permanent condition of our foreign and security policy.” Chairman Jussi Halla-aho also mentioned that the decision was taken after considering many experts and noting the opinions of ten parliamentary committees. (“Finland’s parliament votes yes to NATO,” Reuters, 17 May 2022)

THE UK
Regular pay increases to 4.2 per cent as the unemployment rate falls to 3.7 per cent 
On 17 May, Reuters reported that the UK’s unemployment rate was at an all-time low of 3.7 per cent. The low unemployment rate has accentuated the increase of pay and bonuses to keep and attract staff. Pay increased to seven per cent, which was far above the average forecast of 5.4 per cent. However, this had also led to the rise of consumer price inflation in March to seven per cent. Officials forecast a rise in prices due to the rise in energy tariffs. The price rise could lead the economy close to a recession by the end of 2022, eventually increasing unemployment. (David Milliken and William Schomberg, “UK unemployment hits 48-year low, pushing up pay,” Reuters, 18 May 2022)

REGIONAL
NATO organizes large scale military drills in Estonia
On 17 May, NATO organized one of the most extensive military exercises in the Baltic regions, involving ten countries. The exercises named Hedgehog were held in Estonia and will continue till 03 June. NATO said the exercises were aimed to enhance the readiness and interoperability of its forces and were planned even before Russia invaded Ukraine. About 15,000 troops are involved in the exercises marking it as one of the largest military drills held in Estonia since 1991. According to the BBC, the exercises were taking place 64 kilometers from Moscow’s military bases and were intended to simulate an attack from Russia on Estonia. (Malu Cursino, “Nato begins its military exercises in Baltics,” BBC, 17 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall visit Canada 
On 18 May, UK’s prince Charles and Camilla met with prime minister Justin Trudeau in Canada. The Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall are on a three-day visit to mark the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee. Charles also mentioned that the two would meet indigenous communities and initiate a process of reconciliation with them. The prince added: “look forward to listening to you and learning about the future you are working to build.” Their visit comes as the uncovering of mass graves at former church-run schools caused a national reckoning. The government schools back then were used as a medium to assimilate indigenous children and destroy indigenous cultures. (Andre Rhoden-Paul, “Charles and Camilla visit Canada on royal tour to mark Platinum Jubilee,” BBC, 18 May 2022) 


17 May 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #203

NATO’s expansion since 1949 I reports rise in air emissions: Three takeaways I War in Ukraine:Day 82

The UK & EU might enter into a trade war; Elisabet Borne was appointed as the prime minister of France; Iran thinks about supplying oil to Europe

Photo : http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat


IN FOCUS

NATO’s expansion since 1949 and the warnings from Russia 
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Breaking decades of neutrality  
On 17 May, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin mentioned that the countries joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were constituting a threat to Russia. This comes as Finland and Sweden announced to join NATO to deter conflict and increase their security. The announcement broke decades of neutrality the countries stood by and shed light on the expansion of NATO since its emergence in 1949. NATO’s membership enlarged from 12 member states to 30 countries, with the Republic of North Macedonia being the latest to join on 27 March 2020. 
 
NATO’s Article 10 
NATO’s open-door policy is based on the founding of Article 10. Article 10 stipulates that the North Atlantic Council decides to invite any country to join the alliance based on consensus among all allies. No third country has a say in such deliberations. NATO claims that the enlargement process aimed to promote stability and cooperation. Furthermore, build a united Europe based on freedom, peace, democracy, and shared values. However, the accession process is a seven-step procedure that can take years to accomplish. 
 
Analyzing the expansion from 1949 to 2000 & 2001 to present 
Between 1949 and 2000, NATO expanded to seven other countries: Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. The accession of these countries happened over 51 years. Between 2001 and 2020, NATO expanded to 11 other countries in 19 years, raising concerns for Russia as now more countries on its borders were planning to join the defence alliance. Countries that joined NATO post-2000 were: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. 
 
Thus, Putin had mentioned that as more countries were aiming to join NATO, it also increased Russia’s possibilities of a military and political consequence. The roots of the crisis and Moscow’s warnings began in 2008 in its war against Georgia. When Russia claimed that under the Soviet Union, the US had promised not to expand NATO, yet it did expand from 12 to 30+ members. Putin said NATO’s expansion was the reason that had caused a major breach of faith by the West. On 27 September 2021, Putin did remind the West that NATO’s expansion to Ukraine was a red line for Russia, yet, issues escalated since then and the rest is history. 
 
References
North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” nato.int, 14 May 2022
Tristan Bove, “Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO and breaking with decades of neutrality is fine after all. ‘No problems,” Fortune, 17 May 2022
Dmitri Trenin, “The Ukraine crisis and the resumption of great-power rivalry,” Carnegie Moscow, July 2014


Eurostat reports rise in air emissions: Three takeaways
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 16 May, the EU’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported that greenhouse gas emissions had re-bounced to pre-pandemic levels of 2019 due to increased economic activity. In the fourth quarter of 2021, all of the EU's 27 member states witnessed an increase of eight per cent compared to 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU increased to 1,041 million metric tonnes of CO2, from 1,005 million tonnes in 2019, which was before the pandemic. 

Three takeaways
First, increased emissions from the economic sector. According to the fourth quarter report 2021, the emissions from households, manufacturing, electricity, agriculture, transportation, and storage accounted for a range of 11-22 per cent of greenhouse gases. Amongst them, transportation and storage marked the highest increase with 18 per cent, followed by mining, quarrying, and electricity. The increase is recorded due to the restart of economic activities which drastically reduced during the pandemic. In estimating the long-term effect of the increase, the greenhouse gas emissions in the EU show a stable reduction trend.

Second, the reverse trend across the EU member states. The report indicates an increasing trend in greenhouse gases across all EU member states, where it was negative in 2022. While emissions in a few states such as Cyprus, Slovenia, and the Netherlands seem to have increased at a much slower rate. Estonia, Bulgaria, Malta, Ireland, Latvia, and Belgium have shot up high ranging from 28-13 per cent.

Third, benefit of air emission reporting. Eurostat reports data based on two types of air emissions, greenhouse gases, and air pollutants. Under the greenhouse gases, it covers seven gases that affect climate change and under air pollutants, it counts in seven dangerous substances that are a risk to human health and the environment. The key factor of the report is Eurostat’s three perspectives which provide the emission data from production (emitted from domestic production of goods and services), territorial data (environmental pressure faced within the state borders), and consumption perspective. Through this method of reporting, it benefits the EU to carry out policy analyses to make investment decisions, it allows to compare the emissions with the climate change goals and develop guidelines.

References
EU economy greenhouse gases above pre-pandemic levels,” Eurostat, 16 May 2022
Quarterly greenhouse gas emissions in the EU,” Eurostat, May 2022
Air Emissions Database,” Eurostat, May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 82
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground 
Ukraine’s finance ministry reported that they have signed an agreement on a $100 million loan with Japan. This loan will primarily help in supporting the vulnerable people in Ukraine. They also mentioned that the loan was for 30 years and had a grace period of 10 years.
On 16 May, Ukraine's defence ministry said that the troops defending the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv, had repelled Russian forces and advanced along the border with Russia. The ministry also posted a video on Facebook, which shows Ukrainian troops forwarding near the border post. According to the ministry it was the 227th Battalion of the 127th Brigade of Ukraine's Territorial Defence Force that had reached the border with Russia. 
 
The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai reported that at least 10 civilians have been killed by Russian shelling in Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine. The governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko on the other hand, said that nine civilians were killed and six were injured due to Russian attacks in the region.
 
President Zelenskyy spoke about his discussion with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. He mentioned how he has asked for further financial support and said: “The IMF is our important partner. We look forward to further fruitful joint work in maintaining financial stability of Ukraine.”
 
The Moscoe View:
Claims by Russia

On 16 May, the Russian defence ministry said that its forces have shot down a Su-25 aircraft near the settlements of Yevhenivka in the Mykolaiv region and Velyka Komyshuvakha in Kharkiv, and a Su-24 near Snake Island. While the claims are yet to be confirmed by Russia, this comes amidst continuous missile strikes by Russia, in the eastern part of Ukraine.
 
On 16 May, Russia said that they agreed to evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol. As a part of the deal, 260 evacuees were moved to a medical facility in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk.
 
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 16 May, the European Commission deliberated on whether to approve a new package of financial aid to Ukraine. This will include loans that will help Kyiv by providing liquidity and the long-term financing of reconstruction, in the country. EU foreign ministers deliberating on the sixth round of sanctions on Russia, however, could not reach a consensus, as Hungary could not be persuaded to lift its veto. Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, spoke about how the member states have been unable to reach an agreement regarding the oil embargo said foreign ministers had decided, however, to provide an additional EUR 500 million, making the total sum of aid to EUR 2 billion.
 
Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany said that Russia will not get away with its aggression and imperialistic actions in Ukraine. He also mentioned that the West will not be tolerating such a “diktat peace.” It was also reported that protestors at a southern English port, have blocked the entry of a Greek tanker carrying Russian fuel cargo.
 
On 16 May, Belarus’s president, Alexandr Lukashenko, a key ally of Moscow, accused the West of supporting Nazi ideas. He addressed the Russian president and the leaders of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan at the summit of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), in Moscow. Lukashenko called on members of the Russian-led military alliance to unite against the West, who he alleged was prolonging the conflict in Ukraine to weaken Moscow.
 
Turkey said that they will not be convinced to support Sweden and Finland’s decision to join the NATO. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned that the delegations from these countries should not even bother coming to Ankara and said: “We will not say yes to those [countries] that apply sanctions to Turkey to join the security organization Nato.”
  
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

McDonald’s, which has been in business in Russia for 30 years, will stop their operations in the country. The company will remove the McDonald’s name, logo, branding, and menu, before selling it to a local buyer. They said that Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and the unpredictable operating environment, were making work untenable, and did not align with the company’s values.
 
References
Ukraine signs agreement with Japan on $100 million loan,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Troops defending Kharkiv reached Russian border, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Russian shelling kills 10 civilians in Ukraine's Sievierodonetsk - regional governor,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Nine civilians killed in Russian attacks in Ukraine's Donetsk region - governor,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
Ukraine's president discusses need for financial support with IMF's Georgieva,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Russia says it shot down three Ukrainian fighter jets, one near Snake Island,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Sarah Butler, “McDonald’s to sell its business in Russia after 30 years,” The Guardian, 16 May 2022
Francesco Guarascio, “EU to offer Ukraine new loans to plug immediate needs,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
EU ministers fail to persuade Hungary to sign up to Russian oil embargo,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “Hungary ‘holding EU hostage’ over sanctions on Russian oil,” The Guardian, 16 May 2022
West will not allow Russia a 'diktat peace' in Ukraine, says Germany's Scholz,Reuters, 16 May 2022
Lukashenko urges Russia-led CSTO military alliance to unite against West,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Jon Henley, “Turkey says it will not approve Sweden and Finland joining Nato,”  The Guardian, 16 May 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (May 16),” National Public Radio, 16 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Elisabeth Borne takes over as the prime minister of France
On 16 March, president Emmanuel Macron appointed labor minister Elisabeth Borne as the new prime minister for France following Jean Castex’s resignation. Borne's reputation is likely to help Macron appeal to radical-left voters who supported Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round of the presidential election in April, without upsetting the followers of Marine Le Pen on the right. Her first responsibility would be to guide Macron's centrist coalition through the upcoming legislative election to be held in June. Despite her previous ties to the Socialist Party, Borne demonstrated her commitment to the president by serving as transport, environment, and eventually labor minister during his first term. Macron also stated that the new prime minister will be in charge of "green planning," with the goal of hastening the implementation of climate-related policies in France. (“Macron appoints Elisabeth Borne as France's new prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2022)

THE UK
Rise in food prices announced by the Bank of England
On 17 May, the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey cautioned that there might be a possibility of an increase in food prices in the UK and other countries. There have been concerns about the rise in food and energy prices due to the war in Ukraine. Bailey warned that a very big income shock would occur as there would be an increase in global goods prices and a rise in unemployment. World wheat prices had gone up by 25 per cent over the last few weeks due to the war. Some of the cabinet ministers are unhappy with the Bank's performance and the rise in inflation. Meanwhile, Bailey defended the bank stating that most of its economic issues stem from external factors such as the war in Ukraine, the COVID wave in China, etc. (“Bank governor in 'apocalyptic' warning over rising food prices,” BBC News, 17 May 2022)

REGIONAL
The UK and EU likely to start a trade war
On 16 March, an article in BBC examined the possibility of a trade war between the EU and UK following hints that the UK government may scrap parts of the Brexit deal regarding Northern Ireland. Economists warn that the EU could target politically-sensitive products like Salmon from Scotland for tariffs to maximize the impact. An all-out trade war may be mutually devastating at a time when the EU and UK economies are already severely unstable. The Brexit Opportunities Minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg has described such a scenario as an "act of self-harm," possibly betting that the EU will not take that risk. However, Brussels may decide that beginning the retaliation procedure is necessary to gain leverage and force the UK to concede in the Northern Ireland dispute. (Dharshini David, “Northern Ireland: Could the EU and UK face a trade war?,” BBC, 17 May 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
Iran as an alternative to supply oil to Europe
On 15 May, the government of Iran is thinking about the possibility of exporting gas to Europe. Iran has one of the largest gas reserves in the world which has been hit by the US sanctions that were reimposed in 2018. It is considering replacing Russia as Europe's oil and gas exporter. The rising energy prices due to the Russian invasion have increased the opportunity for Iran as many European countries were dependent on Russian energy imports. Recently Iran and Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding on the same, which might circumvent Iraq from the US sanctions. (“Iran considers exporting gas to Europe: Official,” ALARABIYA News, 15 May 2022)


16 May 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #202

War in Ukraine: Day 80 & 81

Historical shipwreck Endurance is likely prone to plundering; Italy might gradually limit abortion rights

Photo : 80 REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration


War in Ukraine: Day 80 & 81
By Rishma Banerjee 

War On The Ground
On 14 May, one of Ukraine’s regional governors, Oleh Sinegubov said that their forces have succeeded in launching a counteroffensive near Izium, where the Russian forces have taken over. He said: “The enemy is retreating on some fronts and this is the result of the character of our armed forces." This comes in the context of a possible momentum shift in the war, in favour of Ukraine, whereby they are recapturing territory in the northeast in Kharkiv.

On the same day, a large convoy of cars and vans reached Zaporizhzhia. It was carrying refugees from the port city of Mariupol, which has been under severe attack from the Russians. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about the grave situation in the Donbas region, where the Russian forces were still trying to establish their supremacy. 

On 15 May, Zelenskyy congratulated Kalush Orchestra, the Ukrainian band that won the Eurovision competition. In a Telegram post he said: “Our courage impresses the world, our music conquers Europe! Next year Ukraine will host Eurovision!” 

The governor of Lviv, Maxim Kozitsky said that four missiles had struck hit military infrastructure in the Yavoriv area of western Ukraine, near to the Polish border.

The foreign minister of the country, Dmytro Kuleba elaborated on his meeting with the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. He said that they‌ have agreed to work closely together in order to ensure that Ukrainian food exports reach consumers in Africa and Asia.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 14 May, a senior parliamentarian from Russia, Anna Kuznetsova, visited Kherson, in Ukraine. Her visit to Kherson which has been occupied by Russian forces was to discuss the social and healthcare needs of the local population. Kuznetsova who is the deputy head of Russia's Duma or lower house of parliament discussed the supply of foodstuffs as well as medical and essentials necessary for children. 

The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about the ‘total hybrid warfare’, that is allegedly being waged by the West. He also said Moscow will ‌survive the embargoes and sanctions by building a better and deeper relationship with China, India and others. He was talking about the 80th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

On 14 May, Russia’s defence ministry published a few pictures of a ship, which Ukraine’s forces were alleging had been destroyed by them. Dismissing Ukraine’s claims, the ministry said that the ship, in the Crimean Black Sea port of Sevastopol had not suffered any damage at all.

On the same day, president Vladimir Putin Russian spoke with Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto. This was to discuss Finland’s decision to apply for a NATO membership. Kremlin said that Putin has pointed out to Niinisto that abandoning their neutrality and joining NATO will be a mistake ‌and it would affect their bilateral relationship negatively. President Vladimir Putin told his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinisto on Saturday that ditching neutrality and joining NATO would be a mistake that could damage relations between their two countries, the Kremlin said. 

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 15 May, Finland and Sweden who have been contemplating their application for a NATO membership for quite some time confirmed that they will go through with the application. This marks a major policy shift, in response to the Russian invasion, as both the countries have historically been neutral.

The prime minister of Sweden, Magdalena Andersson also said that they will be seeking broad support for an application to join NATO on Monday. This was significant because it marked her a change in the party's stance as well.

The US Embassy in Kyiv tweeted a Ukrainian military video of Kyiv's soldiers training to use the M-777 howitzer. These weapons are a part of the recent USD 800 million care package from the US. It was also mentioned that 89 of the 90 Howitzers had reached Ukraine and several of them are also being used at the front lines.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 14 May, Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesperson for turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he had discussed carrying out a sea evacuation of wounded fighters holed up in Mariupol.

In their meeting in Germany, the foreign ministers from the G7 countries spoke about how the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the subsequent blockade of ports is increasing the food security crisis in the world. They warned that around 43 million people will starve to death unless Russia lifts their blockades.

On 14 May,  they also reiterated that they will enforce Russia's economic and political isolation and continue providing aid to Ukraine be it military or economic, 'as long as necessary.'

References
Tom Balmforth, “Ukraine presses counteroffensive on key Russian line of assault, governor says,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Troops defending Kharkiv reached Russian border, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Gleb Garanich and Leonardo Benassatto, “Large convoy from Mariupol reaches safety, refugees talk of 'devastating' escape,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Sam Jones, “Zelenskiy hails Ukraine’s Eurovision win and plans to ‘one day’ host final in Mariupol,” The Guardian, 15 May 2022
Ukraine's top diplomat meets Blinken, touts more weapon supplies,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Jonathan Landay and Tom Balmforth, “Battle rages for Ukrainian region of Donbas,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy: situation in Donbas region remains very difficult,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Missiles destroy military infrastructure in western Ukraine near Polish border, governor says,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Duma deputy head visits Ukraine's Russian-occupied Kherson, RIA reports,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Russia forges new partnerships in face of West's 'total hybrid war,' Lavrov says,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Russia denies Ukraine forces damaged navy ship in Black Sea,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Putin tells Finland that swapping neutrality for NATO is a mistake,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Russia’s Black Sea blockade pushing millions towards famine, G7 says,” The Guardian, 14 May 2022
Top Senate Republican meets Zelenskiy, Russia says U.S. involvement dangerous,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Britain says Russia has lost a third of its forces in Ukraine,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Niklas Pollard and Simon Johnson, “Sweden to seek broad support for NATO membership,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
Jon Henley, “Finland and Sweden confirm intention to join Nato,”  The Guardian, 15 May 2022
Ukraine has deployed new U.S. howitzers at front lines - embassy,” Reuters, 15 May 2022
“Turkey has offered sea evacuation for wounded Ukrainian fighters, Erdogan adviser says,” Reuters, 14 May 2022
Alexander Ratz and John Irish, “G7 to continue economic pressure on Russia, tackle 'wheat war',”Reuters, 15 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

GERMANY
Conservatives and Greens win elections in the most populous state
On 15 May, Christian Democrats and the Greens are said to win the state elections held in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. The projections by public broadcaster Westdeutscher Rundfunk (WDR) placed incumbent state premier Hendrik Wüst's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in first place with 35.7 per cent of the vote. Chancellor Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), who presently govern the country in a coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) secured second place with 27 per cent. In contrast, the FDP, which has governed in North Rhine-Westphalia as part of a CDU-led coalition, is expected to drop seven points. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland  (AfD) failed to make it into the state legislature, only garnering 4.4 per cent of the vote. (Hans Von Der Burchard, “Conservatives and Greens win in key German state election,” Politico, 15 May 2022)

GENDER
Demonstration against abortion in Croatia
On 15 May, thousands came together in protest against the abortion law in Croatia. The demonstration gathered to support a woman who was refused an abortion despite being diagnosed with foetal abnormalities. Following the increased public outrage Croatian health authorities gave permission to terminate the foetus. She had to go to Slovenia for the procedure as the availability is decreasing in the country. Croatians being catholic and conservative have voices for their opinions against abortion. Abortion is legal after ten weeks if it poses any threat to the mother or the foetus health. The law which was passed during the communist Yugoslavian era is now being defenestrated due to increasing pressure from influential conservative and religious groups in the country. Many doctors refuse to perform abortion as a matter of conscience. (“Croatia abortion: Thousands protest against termination,”BBC, 15 May 2022)

Italy gradually limits its abortion access and rights
On 13 May, an article in Politico reports that Italy is discreetly restricting abortion access in a campaign fueled by the US’s dramatic culture war over reproductive rights. Regional healthcare authorities have been funding anti-abortion organizations in hospitals and clinics. Some municipal governments have even provided monetary rewards to women who cancel their abortion arrangements. The US Supreme Courts descion to likely tear down their constitutional right to abortion has fueled anti-abortion activists in Italy.  Mario Adinolfi, the leader of Popolo della Famiglia, a conservative Christian anti-abortion movement, said his organisation was "ready to ride the wave from the United States, in a vigorous war against the right to kill a kid in the womb." (Hannah Roberts, “Italy slowly erodes abortion access, riding US wave,” Politico, 13 May 2022)

MARITIME
Concerns raised over the vulnerability of Endurance to plundering
On 15 May, a marine archaeologist, Mensun Bound who discovered the wreckage of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s Endurance, warns that its protection may be harmed by global warming and underwater robotic technology that can plunder the historic site. The Shackleton ship was discovered in March, creating polar history by solving one of the world's great nautical mysteries. It is in such excellent condition preservation that elements like the bell and steering wheel can be seen clearly. He raised concerns that ocean acidification and melting ice would make it easier for illegal incursions by rogue organizations. He added that if underwater robotic systems progress to the point where they may be programmed from afar to move "invisibly" beneath the ice of the Weddell Sea, it would make the ship more vulnerable. (Dalya Alberge, “Endurance shipwreck threatened by global heating, says marine archaeologist,” The Guardian, 15 May 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Super blood moon is observed on lunar eclipse in 2022
On 15 May, BBC news reported a rare occurrence of a super blood moon was witnessed during this year's only full lunar eclipse. In this event, the earth comes in between the sun and the moon which slowly darkens the latter before turning dusky red. The event where the natural satellite will appear unusually nearer to earth as it will be its closest point to the planet giving rise to the name super moon. The surface of the moon gets a reflection of all the sunrises and sunsets on earth turning the colour of the light blood red. Europe gets to see this phenomenon on Monday early morning however the Americas can witness it on Sunday evening as the moon rises. The event can be witnessed through naked eyes while the clarity of the red colour would be better through binoculars or a small telescope. (Georgina Rannard, “Full lunar eclipse to bring super blood Moon,” BBC, 15 May 2022)

THE UK
Prime minister Boris Johnson is set to change the Northern Ireland protocol 
On 16 May, the UK prime minister Boris Johnson is planning to visit Belfast to encourage the restoration of Northern Ireland's government. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has refrained from nominating ministers to the assembly as well as for the position of vice-chair due to the Northern Ireland protocol issue. Even though Johnson himself signed the post-Brexit treaty, he agreed for amendments in it. A majority of those who won the recent Northern Ireland assembly election accepted the protocol including Sinn Féin but were opposed by DUP. If the UK act unilaterally it might cause retaliation and eventually a trade war from the European nations which concerns a lot of people in this cost of living crisis. All the other Northern Ireland leaders consider this a priority to restore the government at Storment. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson of DUP has said that he will remove the block of the formation of the Northern Ireland assembly after the UK resolved the issue with the EU. (“Northern Ireland: PM poised for protocol change ahead of crisis talks,” BBC, 16 May 2022)


14 May 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #201

Finland and Sweden: Implications of becoming NATO members | War in Ukraine: Day 79

Boris Johnson to visit Northern Ireland; G7 leaders discuss Ukraine war; Climate change tough for migratory birds

Photo : Finnish Government


Finland and Sweden: Implications of becoming NATO members
By Padmashree Anandhan

What happened?
On 12 May, a joint statement was released by Finland’s president Sauli Niinistö and prime minister Sanna Marin on the application for NATO membership. It read: “NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay.” Sweden is expected to announce the same on 15 May.

According to Finland’s former prime minister, Alexander Stubb the proportion of the Finns who were against Finland joining NATO had revered from 50:20 to 20:50, favoring the decision. He also expects the support per cent to go up to 80 post Finland's announcement to join NATO.

What does membership mean?
First, regional defence and people’s safety. The neighbouring Nordic and Baltic states which previously feared the threat of Russia over Finland and Sweden gaining membership from NATO will support the decision due to war. Finland and Sweden joining NATO not only means a defence posture against Russia but the strengthening of security for Northern Europe and a confidence boost for the Baltic states. Apart from this, in the Nordic states which are top in the world happiness index, ensuring their people feel safe against Russia is a key goal. Therefore, to thwart the Russian threat and to meet people’s satisfaction, Finland and Sweden will have to differ from their neutrality principle and increase their defence expenditure.

Second, security guarantees from nuclear states. Finland is part of all arms and nuclear weapons control agreements to support humanitarian goals, from the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and the EU's Strategy against the proliferation of WMD. Until now there has been no security guarantee because of its neutrality principle in involving militarily. Through NATO membership, Finland and Sweden will gain the guarantee from the nuclear-capable states.

Third, geographical shift. St. Petersburg, Kola Peninsula, and Murmansk are considered the closest areas to Russia and Finland. The Kola Peninsula is the only place that holds Russian nuclear submarines and Murmansk is located less than 200 kilometres from Finland. If Finland opts for the Norwegian model to restrict the positioning of nuclear weapons or force in the foreign territory, it might lead to Russia improving its posture in northern Europe to defend the Murmansk region and its land communication with the remaining Russia. Such moves could lead to NATO installing its forces in northern Europe and thereby resulting in a direct clash with Russia.

References
Joint statement by the President of the Republic and Prime Minister of Finland on Finland's NATO membership,” Finnish Government, 12 May 2022
NATO: New challenges for the alliance as Finland and Sweden inch closer to membership?,” Deutsche Welle, 12 May 2022
Finland Nato: Russia threatens to retaliate over membership move,” BBC, 12 May 2022
Charlie Duxbury, “Finnish leaders announce backing for NATO membership,” Politico, 12 May 2022
The Effects Of Finland’s Possible NATO Membership,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland, April 2016


Turkey’s unhappiness over Finland and Sweden’s proposal to join NATO
By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Turkey’s discontentment with Finland and Sweden
On 13 May, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his unhappiness with the decision of Sweden and Finland proposing to join the NATO. Erdogan added: “We are following the developments with Finland and Sweden, but we don’t have favourable thoughts.” His remarks came as Finland announced that it aimed to join the alliance, while Sweden’s parliamentary security review mentioned that membership could deter the risk of conflict in northern Europe. Erdogan’s comments further highlighted his dismay as he mentioned how the Nordic countries were “home to many terrorist organisations”. 

Turkey has always supported NATO’s expansion. However, it has reservations for Finland and Sweden due to historical and political reasons. Concerning Sweden, Erdogan repeatedly slammed its handling of Kurdish militant groups such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party(PKK) and Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Regarding Finland, Turkey is worried that it would have a spillover effect as Finland shares an 810-mile long border with Russia. On 12 May, Moscow warned of retaliation and a set of unspecified “military-technical” measures to Finland’s announcement of joining the NATO.

What lies ahead?
First, Erdogan’s power play. Erdogan is likely to use this opportunity to gain concessions from Sweden for hosting groups that are considered a terrorist movement by Ankara. Turkey is also scheduled to hold its presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2023, where Erdogan is likely to re-contest. Therefore his comments are seen as a way to gain support from his domestic audience.  

Second, a roadblock to NATO membership. Apart from the long and complex membership process, Turkey’s stance would be another hurdle for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. In addition, the procedure to join NATO includes a “five-step to accession process” that could take years for the two countries to complete. 

Third, a potential retaliation by Russia. On 14 May, Putin with his security council discussed ways of reacting to Finland and Sweden joining NATO via a video link. This comes as Finland joining the alliance would increase Russia’s direct border with NATO by 810 miles. Russia has not clarified its retaliations but has mentioned that it could turn them from neutral to enemy countries overnight. Making them potential targets for Russia. 

References
Michael Birnbaum, Victoria Bisset, Andrea Salcedo and John Hudson, “Turkey’s Erdogan voices skepticism on Sweden and Finland joining NATO,” The Washington Post, 13 May 2022 
Jon Henley and Ruth Michaelson, “Erdoğan: Turkey ‘not positive’ about Sweden and Finland joining Nato,” The Guardian, 13 May 2022 
Ice Toksabay and essay Lehto, “Erdogan says Turkey not supportive of Finland, Sweden joining NATO,” Reuters, 13 May 2022 
"Russia fumes as Finland and Sweden push for NATO membership,” CBS NEWS, 13 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 79
By Rishma Banerjee 

War On The Ground
On 13 May, in an interview, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he was ready to hold direct talks with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. However, he mentioned that Russia’s complete withdrawal from Russia would be the starting point for any discussion. The last face-to-face talks that Ukraine and Russia held were on 29 March. Zelenskyy said, “As president, I am ready to talk to Putin, but only to him. Without any of his intermediaries. And in the framework of dialogue, not ultimatums.”

On 13 May, Vadim Shysimarin, a 21-year-old Russian sergeant, accused of war crimes went on trial in Ukraine. He has been accused of murdering a 62-year-old civilian in the northeastern village of Chupakhivka, who was unarmed. This is a landmark moment as this is the first time that one of Russia’s soldiers is being tried for war crimes. If found guilty, Shysimarin faces life imprisonment.

Ukraine has requested the G7 member states to seize Russian assets and hand them over so that it can assist Ukraine in rebuilding the country after months of the war. Foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said that they were talking about hundreds of billions of dollars, which Russia must pay for. 

On 13 May, the First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotski spoke about how Ukraine was not being able to export more than 1.5 million tonnes of agricultural products a month because Russia blocking their major ports. Before the war, the country exported 5 million tonnes of agricultural crops per month and has now resorted to sending their products by rail.

Ukrainian human rights activist, Lyudmyla Denisova alleged that Russia had forcibly deported 210,000 children, since 24 February. She however did not provide any supporting evidence for this number.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

Brittney Griner, a famous basketball player from the USA will face another month of pre-trial detention in Russia. Griner was arrested at the Moscow airport when the 31-year-old Olympics and WNBA star was found with cannabis vape oil in her luggage. While the Biden administration has said that she has been wrongfully detained, her lawyer has said that she was being treated well, and her health was okay.

On 13 May, Joseph Borell, the foreign affairs chief of the European Union said that the bloc would provide an additional EUR 500 million, in military support to Ukraine. With this set of aid, the EU’s total support of Ukraine will come to EUR 2.08 billion. Borrell also spoke about how he was confident that they will be able to reach a consensus about the embargo on Russian oil ‌soon.

Russia’s foreign ministry reported that they have expelled 10 Romanian diplomats. They also mentioned that this was in response to a similar move undertaken by Bucharest. One member from Bulgaria’s embassy has been expelled as well.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 13 May, Britain's defence secretary Ben Wallace and the U.S. defence secretary issued a joint statement about military aid for Ukraine. In a meeting that took place on 11 May, they discussed the next steps to help Ukraine, and issues about security, NATO, and the AUKUS, which is a defence pact between Australia, the United States, and Britain.

UK’s defence ministry, in their regular Twitter bulletin, said that Ukraine's forces have been successful in preventing Russia from crossing the Siverskyi Donets river. Reportedly, Russia's losses include "significant armored maneuver elements" and deployed pontoon bridging equipment of one battalion tactical group.

German cabinet’s security council has been deliberating on whether to provide Ukraine with IRIS-T SLM medium-range surface-to-air defence systems. These weapons are reportedly made by Diehl Defense, which is a privately held German weapons maker.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

Gillian Triggs, the assistant high commissioner for protection at the UNHCR said that refugee women from Ukraine who have fled to Poland must be provided access to reproductive rights. Poland has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in Europe, and concerns have been raised about the issues faced by refugees who have been victims of rape in Ukraine. Triggs said: "(Victims of sexual violence) need counselling and they need assistance. In some cases, they will need abortions. We will raise this ... with the government.”

References
Joshua Askew, “Russian solider, 21, on trial for murdering civilian in Ukraine war,” Euronews, 13 May 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (May 13),” National Public Radio, 13 May 2022
Ukraine accuses Russia of forcibly deporting over 210,000 children,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Ukraine's president reiterates readiness to talk to Putin,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
Russia expels 10 Romanian diplomats in tit-for-tat move,Reuters, 13 May 2022
Ukraine asks G7 to seize Russian assets to rebuild country,Reuters, 13 May 2022
Russian blockade hits exports of Ukrainian agricultural products,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
UK, U.S. defence ministers discuss support for Ukraine,Reuters, 13 May 2022
Ukrainian forces prevented attempted Russian river crossing in the Donbas, Britain says,Reuters, 13 May 2022
Germany considering whether to supply IRIS-T air defence system to Ukraine,Reuters, 13 May 2022
Access to abortions needed for Ukrainian refugees in Poland, UNHCR says,Reuters, 13 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

The UK 
Boris Johnson to visit Northern Islands amidst rising tensions
On 13 may it was reported that Prime minister Boris Johnson is slated to visit Northern Ireland on 16 May. This coincides with the rising tensions caused by the  Democratic Unionist Party's move to block the election of a Speaker to the new assembly. Speculations about the government’s plan to strip away parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol are rising. The protocol was a part of the  UK-EU Brexit deal, which ensures the continuation of free trade across the Irish land border, also aligns Northern Ireland with the EU single market for goods and has been opposed by unionist politicians. (“NI Election 2022: Prime minister to visit NI as DUP blocks assembly,BBC, 13 May 2022)

REGIONAL
G7 leaders meet to unite Ukraine and Moldova
On 13 May, the foreign ministers of the G7 countries started a meeting in the German resort of Weissenhaus. The objective of the meeting is to discuss the war in Ukraine, the spillover of its impacts on Moldova and the increasing crisis of food security. Germany, which is holding the G7 presidency in 2022, is hosting the top diplomats from  Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba and Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu are the guests for this session. The foreign minister of Indonesia is also slated to join virtually and they will be discussing China’s position vis-a-vis the war and their ties with Russia. (“G7: Germany seeks 'powerful sign of unity' for Ukraine,Deutsche Welle, 13 May 2022)

CLIMATE
Climate change poses the most significant challenge to migratory birds
Climate change is wreaking havoc on various ecosystems, but migratory birds are among the species worst hit by it. About half of the world’s total 10,000 species of birds are migratory in nature, and about 4000 of them travel back and forth between their breeding grounds and wintering grounds. Sometimes these journeys stretch over huge extend of land, often up to 20,000 kilometers, and climate change is making these migrations harder and longer for the birds. (“The perilous life of migratory birds,” Deutsche Welle, 13 May 2022)

SPORTS
International Ice Hockey Federation bans Russia from the World Championship
Many sports associations have banned Russian players from competing in international competitions, and that is the same for the International Ice Hockey Federation as well. Russia which historically has a strong Ice Hockey team will miss this year’s IIHF World Championship. At the Winter Olympics, the Russian team had played under the banner of the "Russian Olympic Committee" (ROC). This was because they were banned from using the Russian flag or uniforms after evidence of state-sponsored doping became public. However, now, they have been banned from participating altogether. (“2022 IIHF World Championship: 'Like a World Cup without Germany or Brazil,Deutsche Welle, 13 May 2022)


13 May 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #200

The US aid to Ukraine I EU-Hungary differences over Russia | War in Ukraine: Day 78

Zemmour seeks a parliamentary seat; UK faces a shrinking economy; Malta as the best country for LGBT+ rights

Photo : Picture alliance/AA/D


Ukraine and the US: The six billion aid
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
 
On 11 May, the US House of Representatives approved a bill worth USD 40 billion of aid to Ukraine. The current bill was seven billion more than what US president Joe Biden had proposed to Congress on 29 April. The Congress has been expediting its approvals for aid to Ukraine, helping  Kyiv to defend itself from Moscow. The US democratic representative Rosa DeLauro said: “This bill will protect democracy, limit Russian aggression, and strengthen our own national security, while, most importantly, supporting Ukraine.”  
 

The US aid: A brief note
The latest aid package includes USD six billion for security assistance, including training, equipment, weapons and military support. USD 8.7 billion to replenish stocks of equipment depleted in Ukraine and USD 3.9 billion for the European command operations. The new bill also increases the budget of the presidential drawdown authority to USD 11 billion, which allows the US president to transfer aid in an emergency without the need for it to be approved by Congress. 
 
Additionally, USD four billion had been allocated in foreign military financing, which is used to support Ukraine and other countries. A package of USD 3.5 billion worth of military equipment includes anti-aircraft Stinger systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles, howitzers and critical ammunition. The aid also includes USD five billion in humanitarian assistance to address food insecurity and USD nine million for monetary fund support to Ukraine. 
 

What does the aid mean?
First, the war centric package vis-à-vis domestic focus. The Ukraine package has sidelined the House’s interests and the US budget allocations from domestic issues. Inside the US, the Democrats and the Republicans have not agreed on the extension of tax credit and a pre-pandemic response package. However, they have been approving the packages to Ukraine, with either side pushing for increased military assistance or humanitarian aid. 
 
Second, the dominant military aid. The latest bill has more than half of the aid allocated for military assistance. This can be seen as the US playing a more crucial role in supporting Ukraine militarily to defend itself against Russia. However, the sheer volume of assistance could escalate the conflict and increase US overseas expenditures. 
 
Third, long-lasting ramifications. Ukraine will significantly benefit from the proposed bill as Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had lost about USD 600 billion due to the war. However, with an increase in US assistance to Ukraine, Washington’s investments are likely to have outcomes similar to its prolonged war in the Middle East. 
 

References
Patricia Zengerle, “US House passes $40 bln bill to bolster Ukraine against Russian invasion,” Reuters, 12 May 2022 
Catie Edmondson and Emily Cochrane, “House Passes $40 Billion More in Ukraine Aid, With Few Questions Asked,” The New York Times, 10 May 2022


Hungary: EU’s Budapest challenge on the Russian oil ban
By Padmashree Anandhan

Recent developments
On 05 May, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban applied brakes on the EU proposal for an oil embargo on Russia. He said that the decision would affect Hungary as its economy is dependent on Russian energy imports by more than 50 per cent. Later, on 06 May, he said that the sanctions on the energy would have an effect equal to a “nuclear bomb,” on Hungary and rejected the EU’s proposal.

On 09 May, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met Orban to discuss Hungary’s objection to the EU’s oil ban. Post the discussion she said: “This evening’s discussion with PM Viktor Orban was helpful to clarify issues related to sanctions and energy security.”


Issues in the background
First, the EU and Hungary equations. The bilateral relations have never been static; especially under Orban, there have been issues at the domestic, regional, and international level which has dented the bilateral relations. At the domestic level, the government's misuse of the EU funds, democratic backsliding, manipulation of media, undermining courts, and provisions against LGBT have caused a rift. At the regional level, neighbouring Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia tagging along with Hungary in misuse of the EU funds, and democratic backsliding, had also challenged the EU’s operations. At the international level, Hungary’s disagreement with the EU’s sanctions on China during the crackdown on Hong Kong also created a similar situation where the EU was not able to step forward to support Hong Kong because of Hungary. Orban, keeping the economic relations with China on the front, denied supporting the EU. The same is repeated with Hungary’s dependency on Russia’s gas and oil. 

Second, Hungary’s dependency on Russia. The relations between Hungary and Russia go back to 2010 when Orban was re-elected. More than the economic ties, Moscow had focused on involving Hungary through politics, energy, and its elites. Keeping Hungary a member of the NATO and the EU, Russia has always concentrated on keeping the loop going with Hungary to block the EU’s foreign policy decisions and sanctions against Russia.

Third, the bargain. EU’s trump card to bring Hungary under its control has been always through funding adjustment. One, though promised to send cash and improve infrastructure from the richest EU countries. Two, by cutting down on EU funds keeping the rule of law, and democratic backsliding as reasons. This situation is reversing back in favour of Orban, as the EU wants his vote to pass the oil embargo. Hungary is currently demanding a five-year exception to phase out Russian oil import and a EUR 750 billion in exchange of a vote against Russia and indirectly to make EU funds flow back into Orban’s cronies' accounts which was restricted after the recent elections.


In perspective
First, Hungary’s reluctance to support EU’s sanctions will have an impact on the latter’s proposal to the oil embargo, but this will also sideline Hungary from Europe. There has been a shift in relations with the regional neighbours of Hungary post the Ukraine war. Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic have turned in favour of the EU, the perception has changed positively with the intake of refugees and support to Ukraine. Hence Hungary’s rejection of the oil ban might lead the EU countries to opt for the ban individually, which in turn lead to the isolation of Hungary for its stance favouring Russia.

Second, Russia has succeeded in breaking the European unity, but it will face the hardship of economic sanctions from the EU countries and a big challenge in diverting its gas and oil supplies from the European market.

Third, there is also another possibility that without a united EU ban on phasing out the Russian energy exports might lead to a larger split amongst the EU member states in taking an individual stance against Russia considering the loss to their economies. Which will turn in favour of Russia to play its big power politics over the small economy states of the EU.
 

References:
Barbara Moens, “No breakthrough on Russian oil ban in talks between von der Leyen and Orbán,” Politico, 09 May 2022
Justin Spike and Samuel Petrequin, “EXPLAINER: Why is Hungary blocking sanctions on Russian oil?,” Associated Press, 10 May 2022
Charlemagne, “Europe is learning to cope with Viktor Orban,” The Economist, 09 April 2022
András Rácz, “Authoritarian Ties: The Case of Russia and Hungary,” Wilson Centre, 22 October 2022
Hans Von Der Burchard And Jacopo Barigazzi, “Germany slams Hungary for blocking EU criticism of China on Hong Kong,” Politico, 10 May 2021


War in Ukraine: Day 78
By Rishma Banerjee
 

WAR ON THE GROUND
On 12 May, during his visit to Berlin, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba appreciated how Germany has responded to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. He also mentioned that Germany's decision to send heavy weapons to Ukraine and to back the proposed EU sanctions have really made a difference for Ukraine. 
 
On 12 May, the finance minister of Ukraine said that they have been forced to spend USD 8.3 billion on their war efforts with Russia. This is to illustrate the economic backlash that Ukraine is having to face, as the weather though the Russian attack on their country.
 

THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia

Former President and one of Putin’s closest allies, Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as the deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, issued a warning to the West. He said that the increased support to Ukraine by the US and NATO also increased the risk of triggering retaliation by Russia. He said: "Such a conflict always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war… This will be a disastrous scenario for everyone."
 
The West View: Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 May, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde said that they will be considering Finland’s stance regarding the NATO application in their deliberations about sending their NATO application forward. Sweden and Finland have had a long history of diplomatic and military ties, and are likely to move in tandem. Public support for Finland’s NATO membership application has grown three-fold. The president, prime minister, and senior cabinet ministers will be meeting on Sunday, to formalize their decision and make an official announcement. 
 
British multinational oil and gas company Shell announced ‌they will sell 411 petrol stations in Russia to Lukoil, which is the country’s second-largest oil producer. Shell Neft, which is the Russian subsidiary, will sell all its stakes in joint businesses as well as a protest against the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The German industrial manufacturing company Siemens also made an announcement along similar lines. They said that they will stop their 170-year-old business in Russia, given the current situation.
 
On 12 May, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced that they are likely to ramp up investments in Ukraine and its neighbourhood. They said that the donors indicated pledges of almost USD 1.04 billion. President Odile Renaud-Basso said that this decision was reached at the recent board of governors’ meeting.
 

THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
Implications of the Ukraine war

A UN agency, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) reported that over 6 million people have fled from Ukraine since the war began on 24 February. They also mentioned that more than 8 million people have been internally displaced within the country, in what is Europe’s worst-ever refugee crisis.
 
On 12 May, the UNHRC passed a resolution about starting an investigation into the rights abuses by the Russian troops in parts of Ukraine that is allegedly controlled by them. While 33 members voted in favour of the resolution, 12 members abstained and 2 members, China and Eritrea voted against it. Michelle Bachelet, the UN human rights chief also mentioned that about 1,000 bodies had been recovered in and around Kyiv, in recent weeks. She said that these verify that many of the violations by Russia amount to war crimes.
 

References
In Berlin, Ukraine's Kuleba welcomes positive changes in Germany's position,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“EXCLUSIVE War forces Ukraine to divert $8.3 bln to military spending, tax revenue drops - minister,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
Russia warns West over risk of conflict with NATO,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
Sweden to take Finland NATO stance into account, foreign minister says,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
Shell agrees to sell Russian retail business to Lukoil,” BBC Live, 12 May 2022
Siemens Announces Russia Exit Over Ukraine War,” The  Moscow Times, 12 May 2022
EBRD receives donor pledges to ramp up Ukraine investments,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
Number of refugees fleeing Ukraine war exceeds 6 million -UN agency,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
UN sets up inquiry into Russia's alleged rights abuses in Ukraine,”  Reuters, 12 May 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 78 of the invasion,” The Guardian Live, 12 May 2022
 


Europe in brief
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

FRANCE

Zemmour seeks a parliamentary seat in Saint-Tropez after failing presidential bid
On 12 May, France’s far-right pundit Eric Zemmour said that he would be seeking a seat in the Saint-Tropez constituency. He also announced that he would be standing up for the upcoming parliamentary elections and said: “I will lead our beautiful and major fight along with our 550 candidates.” Zemmour recorded his highest vote share nationally from Saint-Tropez, giving him a higher chance of winning the upcoming elections. Earlier, he had stood as a presidential candidate to unseat incumbent president Emmanuel Macron but was eliminated in the first round of the elections. (“French far-right pundit Zemmour seeks parliamentary seat in Saint-Tropez constituency,” France24, 12 May 2022)

MALTA
ILGA-Europe announces Valletta as the best country for LGBT+ rights
On 12 May, the ILGA-Europe association said Malta maintained the best policies, laws and practices to discourage discrimination against LGBT+ communities. Malta has been at the top of the Rainbow Europe chart since 2016. Denmark rose seven places to be the second-best country, crossing Belgium. However, Belgium has announced plans to ban its conversion therapies by the end of the year to become more inclusive. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey were rated at the bottom of the charts as they were the worst European countries at protecting LGBT+ rights. (“Malta remains best European country for LGBT+ rights, says report,” Euronews, 13 May 2022) 

THE UK
London experiences a shrinking economy amid recession despairs
On 12 May, according to a report by Reuters, the UK’s economy shrank in March. This comes as the UK faced a fall in the gross domestic product by 0.1 per cent in February, while the Bank of England had forecasted a 0.9 per cent growth. The bank further forecasted inflation to surpass ten per cent in the final quarter of 2022. But, the inflation rate was up by seven per cent in March, which is already more than the three times its two per cent rise target. UK’s chief economist at capital economics Paul Dales said: “The economy had less momentum than we thought even before the full hit from the cost of living crisis has been felt…The risk of recession has just risen.” (David Milliken and William Schomberg, “UK economy shrinks in March as recession risks mount,” Reuters, 12 May 2022)

GENDER
Spain drafts law on medical leave for women with severe period pain
On 12 May, politicians in Spain said they discussed introducing medical leave for women who suffer from severe period pain. The draft bill mentions that women could avail three to five days of leave a month for period pain. If passed, the bill would be the first legal entitlement in Europe. Spain’s legislation has been recently working towards the broader reproductive health reforms, bringing a change to the country’s laws on abortion. However, the law would not apply to women who suffer mild discomfort. (“Spain plans menstrual leave in new law for those with severe pain,” BBC, 12 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
France’s foreign ministry condemns baseless arrests of citizens in Iran
On 12 May, France’s foreign ministry confirmed that two of its citizens were detained in Iran. Iran’s intelligence accused them of planning to cause “chaos, social disorder and instability”. However, the French education union said the two individuals had gone for a holiday in Iran. This comes as International organizations and human rights activists have been accusing the authorities in Iran of arresting Western citizens and using them as bargaining chips at negotiations. Sweden’s foreign ministry too confirmed that on of its citizen was arrested in Iran while on holiday and was also similarly accused of espionage. (“France condemns arrest of two citizens in Iran,” BBC, 12 May 2022)


12 May 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #198

War in Ukraine: Day 77

Photo : REUTERS/Emily Elconin


War in Ukraine: Day 77
by Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground 
Ukraine, which has made allegations of war crimes against Russian soldiers, is starting their first war crimes trial. 21-year-old soldier, Vadim Shishimarin, who was a member of the elite 4th Guards Tank Division will be the first one to be tried. 

Ukaine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy informed that he had a fruitful discussion with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. They spoke about cooperation in the energy sector, aid for defence and the increment of sanctions on Russia.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s pipeline operator halted the Russian shipment of natural gas through a hub in Eastern Ukraine. They said that they have been trying to reroute the gas, but Gazprom has said that it would be too complicated a process.

The deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that they were negotiating with Russia about swapping Russian prisoners of war for the badly injured defenders in the Azovstal plant.

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

On 11 May, Russia said that the people living in Kherson will be deciding if they want to join Russia or not. Kherson, in southern Ukraine, is one of the Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine. Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the military administration in Kherson, made the annexation call and said: “... There will be a request to make [Kherson] into a full-fledged region of the Russian Federation.” 

On the same day, Russia asked for a formal apology from Poland, in the context of Moscow’s ambassador to Warsaw being attacked with red paint on 09 May. They have warned that without the apology, Polan can expect future reprisals.

After the new USD, 40 billion package was approved by the US House of Representatives, former president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev accused the United States of waging a “proxy war” against Russia. Russia’s State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin also spoke along the same lines and said that the US was just using this opportunity to ‘indebt’ Ukraine.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US House passed the measure to provide USD 39.8 billion in aid to Ukraine. The package now will now need to be passed by the Senate, before it is sent for president Joe Biden’s signature.

Deliberations are going on about EU sanctions that are to be imposed on Russia. But, Hungary said that a deal was out of the question unless the EU could offer a solution for the hundreds of millions of dollars necessary to replace Russian oil in the Hungarian economy.

Finland and Sweden have been deliberating about joining the Nato for quite some time now. On 11 May, Finland's president Sauli Niinisto and prime minister Sanna Marin said that they are in favour of applying for the membership. In a joint statement, they said: “Now that the moment of decision-making is near, we state our equal views, also for information to the parliamentary groups and parties… Nato membership would strengthen Finland's security.” 

Neighbouring Sweden is also expected to state their positions soon, as both the countries want to apply for membership together. The Swedish prime minister, Magdalena Andersson met with Boris Johnson, and both of them said that following Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, relations with Vladimir Putin can never be normalised again.

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 11 May, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said that he was deeply concerned about food security given the current situation in Ukraine. He also mentioned how the war in Ukraine was exacerbating issues of hunger in different parts of the world.

References
UN chief: 'deeply concerned' about risks of global hunger due to war in Ukraine,” Reuters, 11 May 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he spoke to Scholz, discussed more Russia sanctions,Reuters, 11 May 2022
Ukraine proposes swapping injured Azovstal defenders for Russia prisoners,” Reuters, 11 May 2022
Russia's Medvedev, Volodin lash out at U.S. aid to Ukraine,” Reuters, 11 May 2022
Hungary says its backing of EU's Russia oil ban hinges on hundreds of millions of dollars,” Reuters, 11 May 2022
Kherson’s military administrators to call for Russian annexation,The Guardian, 11 May 2022
Russia demands formal Polish apology for Warsaw anti-war protest,”  Reuters, 11 May 2022
Ukraine latest news,BBC Live, 11 May 2022 


11 May 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #198

Putin's Victory Day speech: Three Takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 76

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS

Putin's Victory Day speech: Three takeaways
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
 
On 09 May, Russia's president Vladimir Putin gave a victory day speech commemorating the USSR's triumph over Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II. Putin mentioned how the victory united the Soviet people in "its cohesion and spiritual power, an unparalleled feat on the front lines and on the home front." 

Justifying Russia's intervention in Donbass 
Putin highlighted the controversies in international relations and advocated that Russia always stood for an equal and indivisible security system. He claimed that Russia proposed security guarantees to the US and the West, but they did not respond. He further accused Kyiv of planning operations in Donbas and Crimea, justifying Russia's intervention in the region. 
 
Putin further accused Ukraine of acquiring nuclear weapons and that neo-Nazis were steering Ukraine's politics. This comes just days after he apologized to Israel's prime minister Naftali Bennett for Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov's comments about Adolf Hitler having "Jewish blood."
 
Call to unitedly fight for the Motherland Russia 
Putin rhetorically spoke about a threat from Ukraine, the US and the West to Motherland Russia. He said that the West no longer respected the faith, traditional values, ancestors' customs, cultures, and Russia's people. Furthermore, Putin addressed the armed forces and the Donbas militia who were putting up a resistance to the West. 
 
Finally, he mentioned how Russia's enemies used international terrorist gangs against the country to incite inter-ethnic and religious strife to weaken Moscow from within. But, their plans failed as the warriors of different ethnicities fought together as a great invincible power of the united multi-ethnic nation called Russia.
 
Unfavourable response from the West
The world was waiting in anticipation for Putin’s speech as rumours emerged that Russia would officially declare war on Ukraine on the Victory Day. His speech on Russian nationalism gave respite to the US and Europe; however, the claims he made in the speech incited their reactions. 
 
Ukraine’s presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak debunked a claim saying: “NATO countries were not going to attack Russia. Ukraine did not plan to attack Crimea.” UK’s defence minister Ben Wallace mentioned how the victory day could be no victory day as it only brought dishonour to Putin and a defeat in Russia. He added: “He (Putin) must come to terms with how he’s lost in the long run, and he’s absolutely lost.”
 
References: 
Victory Parade on Red Square,” Kremlin.ru, 09 May 2022
Reactions to Putin’s Victory Day speech,” Reuters, 09 May 2022
Roman Goncharenko, Michel Penke, Tatjana Schweizer and Joscha Weber, “Fact check: Vladimir Putin's Victory Day speech,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 76
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
 
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 10 May, Russia’s Black Sea port of Odesa came under a new set of attacks. Seven hypersonic missiles hit a shopping centre and a depot, killing one and injuring five. The air raids at Odesa also interrupted a meeting between the European Council President Charles Michel and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
 
Also on the same day, the press officer, Tetiana Apatchenko stated that Ukrainian troops have recaptured the villages of  Cherkaski Tyshky, Ruski Tyshki, Borshchova, and Slobozhanske, located in the northern region of Kharkiv. The counterattack might indicate the start of a new phase in the war, with Ukraine going on the offensive after weeks of Russian assaults have failed in any breakthroughs.
 
Zelenskyy’s address
On 10 May, president Zelenskyy addressed the parliament of Slovakia and its people. Zelenskyy said that Russia's assault against Ukraine is more than just an attempt to capture the country and obliterate national identity. Zelenskyy appreciated Slovakia for donating defence equipment to Ukraine at a crucial time and acknowledged the country’s inability to ban all Russian oil imports. However, Zelenskyy warned Slovakia that its dependency on Russian oil may threaten its sovereignty as well. 

In his evening address, Zelenskyy spoke to the parliament of Malta and its people in a video conference. Zelenskyy drew comparisons between Ukraine’s struggle in the face of Russia's assault and that of the Battle of Malta 80 years ago. He urged for more weapons and defence equipment and further called on Malta to end the privileges given to Russian citizens like Golden passports and dual citizenships. The speaker of the House Anglu Farrugia responded by stating that Malta's neutrality, which is engrained in the institution, prevents the nation from intervening militarily. However, Farrugia said that Malta would continue to give humanitarian help.

The Energy sanctions Roadmap
On 10 May, the head of the office of the president of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, and director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) ambassador Michael McFaul, presented the second document on recommendations for sanctions against the Russian Federation. The document includes policy ideas for depriving Russia of energy revenue while avoiding market and global economic disruptions. Maritime export service providers are scrutinized and targeted for circumventing the sanctions.
 
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

On 10 May, Russia’s defence ministry claimed that Ukraine’s forces had tried to claim the Snake Islands in the Black Sea. This small outcrop in the Black Sea has been a stage of clashes between Russia and Ukraine since when the war began in February. 
On the same day, the deputy foreign minister of Russia, Alexander Grushko said that the decision of using nuclear weapons will not be haphazard, and will follow the military doctrine of the country.
The Russian video platform Rutube remained offline for the second day in a row. This is following a cyberattack that made the platform defunct, hours before they were supposed to stream the Victory Day parade in Moscow. In a Telegram message, the platform said that it will take more time to restore the platform than the engineers had originally thought.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 10 May, BBC reported on the UK’s prime minister, Boris Johnson scheduled to visit Sweden and Finland, to discuss ‘border security issues.’ This is in light of the two country’s deliberations on applying for a NATO membership.
On 10 May, the US House voted 368-57 in favour of sending military, economic, and humanitarian aid worth nearly USD 40 billion to Ukraine. The measure will now be sent to the Senate, where the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised to act swiftly on it.
Lithuania became the first country to designate Russia as a perpetrator of terrorism. In a unanimous vote, they also declared that Russian action in Ukraine was ‘genocide.’ Germany and Netherlands’ foreign ministers, Annalena Baerbock, and Wopke Hoekstra visited Ukraine on a surprise visit. They visited Kyiv which had been devastated by the war. 
On 10 May EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen said they have made ‘progress’ in the talks with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban. This is in the context of Hungary holding up EU’s plans for an oil embargo in Russia and Orban comparing the deal with an ‘atomic bomb.’ Regarding the same issue, France has said that a deal can be struck by the end of this week. 

The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 10 May, Japan’s industry minister said that they will deliberate on how to implement an embargo on Russian oil, considering the economic fallouts from such a decision. 
On 10 May, International Organization for Migration (IOM) published a report on the survey of internally displaced people in Ukraine. The report estimates that over eight million people are internally displaced in Ukraine since the Russian invasion. This implies a 24 per cent rise from the previous estimates. The survey was conducted between 27 April and 03 May and assessed the needs of internally displaced persons (IDP) as well. 
On 10 May, the head of the UN human rights monitoring mission to Ukraine, Matilda Bogner stated that far more civilians have been killed since the start of the war than previously estimated. The mission has verified 7,061 civilian deaths so far, with 3,381 dead and 3,680 wounded, but the actual number is said to be far higher.
On the same day, Europe’s regional director of the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that at least 3000 people in Ukraine, have died due to the lack of treatments and medications for chronic diseases such as HIV/AIDS and cancer.

References
Speech by the President of Ukraine at the National Council of the Slovak Republic,” President of Ukraine, 10 May 2022
Speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Parliament of Malta,” President of Ukraine, 10 May 2022
Yermak-McFaul's expert group has developed a roadmap for energy sanctions,” President of Ukraine, 10 May 2022
Emma Farge, “At least 3,000 have died in Ukraine for want of disease treatment, WHO says” Reuters, 10 May 2022
Ukraine looks to regain territory in the east,”  Euronews, 10 May 2022 
Civilian death toll in Ukraine likely 'thousands higher' than previous estimates, says UN human rights monitor,” Euronews, 10 May 2022
Ukraine pushes Russian troops back in Kharkiv counter-offensive,” Euronews, 10 May 2022


10 May 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #197

War in Ukraine: Day 75

The UK Met Office predicts rise of global temperatures by 1.7 C; DUP withhold nomination of its ministers over trade protocol

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 75
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground
Zelenskyy's address
On 09 May, president Zelenskyy commemorated Victory Day over the defeat of Nazism and addressed the people of the country. He said they are proud of their forefathers, who fought Nazism alongside other nations in the anti-Hitler alliance and will not allow the triumph to be appropriated by anyone. He further stated that the thousands of Ukrainians who fought and expelled Nazi's from Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Melitpol, and Mariupol will inspire and give hope to drive out the occupiers again.

In his evening video address to the people of Ukraine, Zelenskyy briefed about all the meetings and events held in Kyiv during the day. He also expressed gratitude to all the defenders and international organizations for their support. Zelenskyy raised concerns about the possibility of famines and price rises in Africa and Asia caused by the invasion of Russia.

Dialogues with the EU
On 09 May, Zelenskyy and prime minister Denys Shmyhal held a video conference with the president of the European Council Charles Michel to discuss further humanitarian aid and military support provided by the EU. Michel also visited Odesa to witness the devastation caused by the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to Michel for his physical presence in Odesa and appreciated the sanctions against Russia by the EU. Michel stated that he admired the resilience and courage of Ukrainians. He also acknowledged that the Ukrainians today are fighting not only for their country but also for the values of democracy and freedom in Europe.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy announced that he had submitted the second questionnaire to obtain EU membership to the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Matti Maasikas. Zelenskyy stated: "I think these answers are also a small victory for our team. We are waiting for the consideration and conclusions of the European Commission. I would like these conclusions to be positive. And I would like these conclusions to be provided faster thanks to you." President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen appreciated Zelenskyy's eagerness and prompt response; she further mentioned that the commission would work diligently to review the submission and reach a decision by June

Also, on 09 May, Zelenskyy met with the secretary general of the Council of Europe, Marija Pejčinović Burić. The leaders discussed measures to build a group of legal experts to help the prosecutor general's office and establish a new online platform called Cities4Cities to serve local communities in Ukraine. Zelenskyy also urged the Council of Europe to make every effort to prevent Russia from illegally deporting Ukrainian people from temporarily occupied territories and war zones. He further asked the council to engage with other international partners to guarantee that Ukrainians are returned to their homeland.

Calls for help
On 09 May, Zelenskyy urged the international community to assist Ukraine in removing the Russian blockade of shipping ports to export wheat and prevent food shortages worldwide. Zelenskyy stated: "For the first time in decades and decades, in Odesa, there is no regular movement of the merchant fleet, there is no routine port work. This has probably never happened in Odesa since World War Two." The call for help came following the Food and Agriculture Organization report released on 06 May stating that about 25 million tonnes of grains are stranded in Ukraine and unable to leave owing to infrastructural problems and blocked Black Sea ports. 

Over a million are estimated to be illegally deported to Russia
On 09 May, the commissioner for Human Rights in the Ukrainian Parliament Lyudmila Denisova stated that over a million Ukrainian people had been deported to Russia. She further added that the Ukrainians in the Russian-occupied regions are being sent to filter camps, and those who pass the procedure will be unlawfully deported to Russia. Denisova claims that 200,000 children are among the 1,185,000 Ukrainians who have been forcefully deported across the border. 
Awards and honours

On 09 May, a mine-sniffing dog named Patron and his owner Myhailo Iliev were awarded the medal of honour by president Zelenskyy at Kyiv for helping to find over 200 mines. The Jack Russel terrier dog has become a national hero and a symbol of resistance against Russia.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin's Victory Day speech
On 09 May, Russia's president Vladimir Putin gave his address for the Victory Day in the Red Square. Victory Day, which marks Soviet Union's win over Nazi Germany, Putin applauded each veteran present on the day. He began his remarks about the Russian fighters fighting in the war. He expressed concerns about the soldiers who had died. In the speech, he called the war in Ukraine a special military operation and said it was the right decision for a "strong and sovereign country." Although there were no major announcements on the war or Russia's strategies, he portrayed that Europe had denied Russia's requests despite Russia asking Europe to find a common cause to negotiate. He added: "In Kyiv, they were saying they might get nuclear weapons and Nato started exploring the lands close to us and that became an obvious threat to our country and our borders. Everything was telling us that there is a need to fight."

The Victory Parade
The day marks the offensives launched by Russia and the mass extraditions carried out due to Nazi crimes. It is celebrated by the Russians to remember the sacrifice of its citizens and the loss that was incurred by the country. On 09 May, the parade by the Russian military in Russia was a display of its troops, weapon systems such as self-propelled artillery, ground-launched ballistic missiles, heavy armour, and combat vehicles. Apart from this, the parade also included Russia's paratroops formation, long-range missiles, and Russia's nuclear arsenal.

THE West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 09 May, the US announced its plans to provide Ukraine with USD 39.8 billion in aid. This comes as the house of representatives said it was planning to pass the previous bill of USD 33 billion. The new proposal included an additional USD 3.4 billion for military aid and USD 3.4 billion in humanitarian aid and the USD 33 billion proposed.

The US adopted the Lend-Lease Act to smoothen weapons and aid transports to Ukraine. On the same day, US president Joe Biden said he eased the acceleration of US weapon shipments to Ukraine. He further mentioned how 09 May marked the anniversary of Europe Day, which celebrates the founding of the EU in 1950. 

Also, on 09 May, the US department of defence said Russia's president Vladimir Putin's remarks included the usual bluster, falsehoods, and untruths. Concerning the war in Ukraine, the pentagon's spokesperson John Kirby stated that there was no stalemate in Ukraine as artillery attacks continued. He further added: "We do not see the Russians making a lot of progress and we believe they are behind their schedule and are not making much geographic gain." 

The UK
On 09 May, UK's defence secretary Ben Wallace accused Russia's armed forces of amorality and corruption. He added how the soviet conscripts then and the Russian forces now were suffering needlessly due to the absence of effective military leadership. He said: "Fear and sycophancy dictated behaviors then, and today's Russian armed forces still carry that Soviet imprint – the imprint of amorality and corruption."

France
On 09 May, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz met with France's president Emmanuel Macron in Berlin. The two discussed how the war in Ukraine was a turning point in history as it united the countries in Europe. Macron mentioned that the two countries had to work together to tackle more significant challenges as the countries continued their support of Ukraine. 

On the same day, Macron had addressed the European parliament and proposed a formation of a new political European community that would be inclusive of countries outside the EU to join the bloc's core values. Macron also mentioned how Ukraine's proposal to join the EU would take several decades due to the process of a country integrating into the EU. Thus, he suggested that the European political community increase political cooperation, security, cooperation in energy, transport, investment in infrastructure, and movement of people.

Italy
On 09 May, Italy's parliamentary committee stated that it had begun its investigations concerning the spread of disinformation on its television networks. Italy had aired an interview where Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov gave controversial remarks about Ukraine's president. The committee is looking into the issue not to discourage press freedom but to deter the spread of disinformation, interference, the production of fake news, and influence. 

Poland
On 09 May, protestors doused Russia's ambassador to Poland in red paint as he attended the 77th anniversary of the end of the second world war. The protestors also waved Ukraine flags and white-red-white flags as a symbol of the Belarusian opposition movement. 

The EU
On 09 May, the EU's commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc aimed to deliver its decision for Ukraine to join the EU by June. Von der Leyen had earlier pledged to Zelenskyy to speed up Ukraine's bid to become an EU member. She is also planning to visit Hungary to meet prime minister Viktor Orbán and discuss the complications that arose due to the proposal of the sixth package of sanctions by the EU. 
On the same day, the EU's council president Charles Michel who was on a visit to Odessa was forced to take cover from incoming missile strikes. His meeting with Ukraine's prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, was interrupted by missile strikes as the two hurried to take shelter. 

THE Global Fallouts: 
International implications of the Ukraine war

China
On 09 May, China's president Xi Jinping warned Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, of an unmanageable situation if the Ukraine war continues. Xi stated that the ongoing war had to be controlled to avoid the war from intensifying and expanding. Xi also invited Germany to participate in the Global Security Initiative. 

Japan
On 09 May, Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida mentioned that the country would take time to phase out Russian oil imports. This comes as Japan had agreed to ban Russian oil imports along with the G7 countries. He further added: "As for the timing of the reduction or stoppage of (Russian) oil imports, we will consider it while gauging the actual situation. We will take our time to take steps towards a phase-out."

Fiji
On 09 May, a Fiji court said that it suspended the execution of the USD 300 million superyachts. The yacht is still currently under Fiji police's custody and is blocked from leaving the country. The US had earlier won custody of the yacht, but the company obtained a temporary stay on the warrant. 

The UN
On 09 May, the UN secretary-general António Guterres in his visit to Moldova mentioned that the consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine were escalating. He added how the impact of the war "is profound and far-reaching". Guterres further added that he was deeply concerned about continuing the war and its spillover to the neighboring countries. Concerning Moldova's sovereignty and territorial integrity, he said that the country must not be threatened or undermined.
On the same day, the UNHRC stated that it would hold a special session to address Russia's human rights violations in Ukraine. This comes as more than 50 countries had called on the UNHRC to examine the deteriorating human rights situation in Mariupol.

References:
"Address by the President of Ukraine on the Day of Victory over Nazism in World War II," President of Ukraine, 09 May 2022
"Obtaining Ukraine's EU membership candidate status is of great importance for the Ukrainian people - President during a conversation with Ursula von der Leyen," President of Ukraine, 90 May 2022
"Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Secretary General of the Council of Europe — Official website of the President of Ukraine," President of Ukraine, 09 May 2022
"Russia is the only culprit that peace has been destroyed, and this is its historical responsibility - address by the President of Ukraine," President of Ukraine, 09 May 2022
"Ukraine calls for moves to unblock ports and prevent global food crisis," Reuters, 09 May 2022
"Over a million Ukrainians deported to Russia — Ukraine rights commissioner," Euronews, 09 May 2022
"Patron the mine-sniffing dog awarded medal by President Zelensky," BBC, 09 May 2022
"BBC Live," BBC, 09 May 2022
"US to add another $40 billion in aid for Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"Joe Biden on Monday eased the acceleration of US weapons shipments to Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"The US Department of Defence is slamming Vladimir Putin's public remarks on Monday on the conflict in Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, met with Emmanuel Macron in Berlin," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"An Italian parliamentary committee has begun an investigation into the spread of disinformation," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"Protesters in Poland covered the country's Russian ambassador in red paint as he attended a wreath-laying ceremony marking the 77th anniversary of the end of the second world war," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"Ukraine's bid to join EU will take 'several decades', says Macron," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"The European Commission will aim to deliver its opinion on EU membership for Ukraine next month, its president Ursula von der Leyen said," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"European Council president forced to take cover from missile strike during Odesa visit," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"UK defence secretary: conflict in Ukraine brings 'dishonour' to Russian armed forces," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022
"United Nations secretary-general António Guterres said during an official visit to non-NATO member Moldova on Monday," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"The United Nations human rights council will hold a special session on Thursday to address alleged Russian human rights violations during its war in Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"China's president, Xi Jinping, has warned Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, that all efforts must be made to ensure the Ukraine conflict does not turn into an "unmanageable situation," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"Japan will take time to phase out Russian oil imports after agreeing on a ban with other G7 nations to counter Moscow's invasion of Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022 
"A Fiji court has suspended the execution of a US warrant to seize a $300 million super yacht Washington claims is owned by sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov," The Guardian Live, 09 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
NORTHERN IRELAND
DUP halt the re-establishment of Stormont over the NI protocol
On 09 May, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) halted the formation of a government in Northern Ireland (NI) by nominating not even one minister. While holding the second-most seats in the assembly and the chair of the deputy first minister, DUP has not taken any action due to its concerns over the Northern Ireland protocol. All the party leaders met with NI Secretary Brandon Lewis in Belfast on 09 May to discuss the quick re-establishment of Stormont. He urged all party leaders to respect the election results. The free trade agreement on the Irish border post-Brexit is the main reason for the concern for DUP and that the party would nominate its ministers only after a decisive action on the protocol is taken. Michelle O'Neill, the would-be first minister from Sinn Féin said that DUP and the UK government must respect the outcomes of the election, and Boris Johnson and the EU should resolve the issues over the protocol. Other parties like the Alliance Party said in a statement that DUP should either nominate their ministers or should become opposition and let them do their job. (Chris Andrews, “NI election 2022: DUP blocks new NI government in Brexit protest,” BBC News, 10 May 2022)

THE UK
The UK aviation industry's not positive about climate change measures
On May 10, airlines in the UK missed all the goals and targets set since 2000 to reduce their carbon footprint except for one. The aviation industry is responsible for seven per cent of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions. Many companies set targets to achieve greener and more efficient fuels but those were forgotten after a few years. The only company to accomplish a target was EasyJet, which reduced fuel burn per passenger kilometre by three per cent by 2015. However, it missed other targets like building “ecojet” which would emit 50 per cent less carbon dioxide than its current planes. The government is also trying to tackle the issue of climate change by decarbonizing airlines through its Jet Zero strategy. le Murray from an international NGO said that the government should prioritize other modes of transportation to reduce its carbon footprints. (Georgina Rannard, “Climate change: Airlines miss all but one target - reportBBC News, 10 May 2022)

The UK researchers predict a rise in global temperature in the next five years 
On 10 May, researchers from the UK Meteorological (Met) office warned that the global temperature may increase temporarily by more than 1.5 celsius for the next five years due to greenhouse gasses. 2016 and 2022 marked the record for the warmest years causing El Niño. In 2015, the world saw a rise in the global warming threshold being more than one Celsius leading to the formation of the Paris agreement. Researchers expect fifty-fifty odds of the world becoming warm again temporarily with the temperature between 1.1 celsius and 1.7 celsius higher than the pre-industrial 19th-century levels from 2022 to 2026 resulting in a record-breaking rise in global average warmth. The world is already experiencing serious impacts in regards to climate change, spontaneous wildfires, and heatwaves in countries like India and Pakistan with around one celsius of global warming. According to the Met office researchers, the Arctic region will be the warmest and will have a rise in sea level. (Matt McGrath, “Climate change: 'Fifty-fifty chance' of breaching 1.5C warming limit,” BBC News, 10 May 2022)

REGIONAL
Macron calls for a new organisation to unite European democracies
On 09 May, France's president Emmanuel Macron wants to create a new body to unite European democratic nations under one roof. The organization was called for the sake of Ukraine as it would take years for it to join the EU. Macon said that it would enable democracies in Europe to find a space for political cooperation. Ukraine's application for membership in the EU would take time as it has to go through a series of processes such as candidacy status, accession, and whether the country meets all the criteria. Kyiv submitted a 5,000-page document to Brussels answering its suitability in the EU but the response was yet to be given. If the membership process is quickened for Ukraine, other Balkan states that had been on the waiting list for years would become upset. So to tackle the problem, the new body would look into these issues, and also it would stand with Ukraine in the war for it to win. (Jennifer Rankin, “Macron calls for new European body and warns Ukraine of EU wait,”  The Guardian, 09 May 2022)


09 May 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #196

War in Ukraine: Day 73 & 74

Photo : PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE


War in Ukraine: Day 73 & 74
By Ashwin Dhanabalan, Rishma Banerjee, and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 08 May, president Zelenskyy in a video conference with the Group of Seven (G7) countries appealed for more weapons for Ukraine. He stressed the need to sanction all Russian authorities, police, soldiers, judges, and citizens and urged financial support during the war and post-war reconstruction. Zelenskyy estimated USD 600 billion to rebuild everything after the war and USD five billion per month to handle the ongoing war situation.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy addressed the country to commemorate the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation for those who lost their lives during the second world war. He stated that evil and darkness had returned to Ukraine after decades, in a different uniform and slogan. His video message was filmed in front of burnt and destroyed buildings in black and white to emphasize the grief and return of winter in Ukraine. Throughout his video message, Zelenskyy avoided mentioning Putin, but he used evocative language to show his grief at the devastation.

World leaders visit Ukraine
On 08 May, president Zelenkyy met with the prime minister of Canada Justin Trudeau in his unannounced visit to Irpin and Kyiv. They discussed Canada’s support for Ukraine and numerous bilateral matters as well. Zelenskyy mentioned that negotiations are underway to lift trade restrictions, abolition of customs duties, and limit the visa regime for citizens of Ukraine. Trudeau stated he would provide anti-tank weaponry, satellite communications systems, demining equipment, and arms assistance. Trudeau also visited the suburbs of Kyiv to witness the devastation.

The first lady of the US had also visited Ukraine without prior notice to demonstrate solidarity for the country's people in the wake of Russia's invasion. She visited a school that was functioning as a temporary shelter and met Ukraine's first lady, Olena Zelenska.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy met with the president of Norway's parliament Masud Gharahkhani on his visit to Ukraine. They discussed increasing Norway’s security support for Ukraine and cooperation in the field of energy as well. Gharahkhani expressed grief over the atrocities done by Russia in Irpin and Bucha. 

Also on 08 May, president Zelenskyy met with the president of the Bundestag of Germany Bärbel Bas in Kyiv. Zelenskyy appreciated the resolution of the Bundestag, asking Germany to expand and hasten the provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine. He also expressed his expectation that Berlin would favour the candidature of Ukraine in the EU.

President Zelenskyy also met the prime minister of Croatia Andrej Plenkovic to discuss defence and energy cooperation. Following the meeting with Andrej, Zelenskyy stated that he would like to receive modern and powerful weapons to gain knowledge and experience. Zelenskyy said: “Croatia is a principled member of our anti-war coalition. Together we defend the right not only of our citizens, not only of the citizens of Ukraine but also of every European nation to an independent and democratic life.” He further mentioned that Ukraine does not have access to European modern technologies in other spheres as every EU or NATO member state has.

Executive meeting held in Kyiv
On 07 May, president Zelenskyy presided over a meeting on the matters of the executive branch. Head of the president's office Andriy Yermak and his deputies, prime minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, and members of the cabinet were present. The conference focused on developing a strategy for Ukraine's post-war rebuilding and growth. Minister of finance Serhiy Marchenko, briefed on the national budget's implementation under martial law. He stated that the government had a UAH 125 billion deficit in April. At the same time, tax and customs receipts surpassed expectations, totalling UAH 53 billion. It is expected to get UAH 57 billion in May.

The minister believes that the monthly shortfall would be covered by foreign grants and loans. International funds worth USD 11 billion are still being negotiated, with Ukraine having already received USD five billion.

Mariupol
On 08 May, buses transporting the last wave of civilian evacuees from the besieged Azovstal steelworks arrived in Ukrainian-controlled territory Zaporizhzhia, concluding an international effort to free those trapped in bunkers under the Mariupol facility. The vehicle, carrying roughly 175 refugees, arrived at the camp after dusk. They comprised about 40 civilians who had been holed up in Azovstal's huge network of subterranean bunkers for weeks with the Ukrainian military under intense fire. 

On 08 May, the regional governor of Luhansk Serhiy Gaidai reported that a Russian bomb hit a school where 90 people were given shelter. She stated that after extinguishing the fire caused by the bomb, 30 people are rescued but two were found dead under the rubble. It is feared that 60 people who remain under the debris are probably dead. 

On 07 May, president Zelensky reported that a museum devoted to the 18th-century philosopher and poet Hryhoriy Skovoroda was destroyed by Russian artillery. The museum's roof was set ablaze by an overnight attack in the village of Skovorodynivka in eastern Ukraine, wounding a 35-year-old curator. The regional governor of Kharkiv Oleh Sinegubov stated the most precious exhibits had been evacuated earlier for safety reasons.

On the afternoon of the same day, four missiles hit the city of Odessa. The Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that areas around the airport, including a runway and a furniture manufacturing plant, were hit.   

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

Weapons of the West and the US were destroyed at Sol railway station and Kharkiv region
On 08 May, Russia's defence ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov mentioned that the army was able to use high-precision air-to-surface missiles to hit Western military equipment at the Sol railway station. Russia claims to have also killed a few army reserves of the Ukrainian military.

On 07 May, the armed forces stated that they used Iskander missiles to eliminate Ukrainian troops and weapons supplied by the US and the EU. Konashenkov mentioned that the 58th mechanized infantry brigade of Ukraine's armed forces was eliminated using the high precision missiles near the stations of Krasnograd and Karlovka.

Russia's aviation destroys Ukrainian project 1241 corvette
On 08 May, Konashenkov stated that Russia's air defences downed more than two Ukrainian Su-24 bombers and one Mi-24 helicopter overnight. They additionally destroyed communications posts at the Chervonoglinskoye airstrip and a project 1241 corvette using precision air-based missiles. Konashenkov said: "During the night, Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed a mechanize brigade command post near Pyatikhatka, Kharkov Region, and a communications post at the Chervonoglinskoye airstrip near the settlement of Artsyz." He further stated that the airstrikes eliminated up to 420 nationalists and 55 combat vehicles.

Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin on the US participating in the war
On 07 May, Russia's state duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the US had admitted to being involved in coordinating Ukraine's combat operations. He added that this meant the US was directly involved in participating in the military actions against Russia. He further mentioned that the US should also be held accountable for the war crimes committed by the Kyiv Nazi regime in Ukraine.

Western firms leaving Russia
On 07 May, Volodin stated that the Western companies leaving Russia would face issues as domestic and Asian firms were replacing their market share. He further mentioned that foreign companies in Russia needed to have certainty about their activities in the country. He said that Russia was an open country and would always welcome investment in its economy.

Russia's air defences down 17 Ukrainian drones
On 07 May, Russia's missile and artillery forces claimed to have hit 240 targets overnight. Konashenkov said they downed 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, nine Smerch missiles and three Tochka-U missiles. He further stated that the drones were downed in Signalnoye, Luganskoye, Krasnkogorovka, Yasinovatoye, Zugres and Nikolaev regions. Defense ministry spokesman added: "Missile and artillery forces targeted 44 command posts and 196 strongpoints of the Ukrainian army and areas where Ukrainian troops and military equipment were deployed."

At the UN, Russia presents evidence of war crimes by Ukraine's military
On 07 May, Russia's diplomats at an informal meeting of the UN Security Council showed video evidence of the Ukrainian military hampering evacuation of the civilian population. Russia's ambassador Vasily Nebenzya stated that Ukraine and the West were trying to prevent this from coming under the spotlight and the global attention. Nebenzya stated that they had enough evidence to show that the Ukrainian army and paramilitaries had systematically violated human rights and used civilians as hostages and human shields.

Russia's deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin visits Mariupol
On 08 May, Khusnullin's visit marked the first senior government official's entry into the southern port city after weeks of Russian bombardment. Khusnullin said Russian forces had liberated the city. However, Ukrainian forces are still holed up in the city's Azovstal steelworks plant.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 07 May, the US first lady Jill Biden visited the Romanian capital of Bucharest and met with a group of refugee mothers and educators and Ukraine. She praised them for their resilience and strength in overcoming this ordeal.

On 08 May, Jill Biden made an unannounced trip to Ukraine and met with Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenskaa. She also visited a school that has been converted into a temporary shelter, currently housing 163 displaced Ukrainians. She met Ukrainian refugees and volunteers in Slovakia completing the last leg of her tour to Romania and Slovakia.

The US president, Joe Biden met with the G7 leaders and Ukraine's president Volodymir Zelenskyy and revealed new sanctions on 27 employees in Gazprom, several banking executives from Sberbank and three Russian television stations. It also banned Americans from providing consulting services to Russians. These news sanctions will be imposed on over 2,600 Russian and Belarusian military personnel too, who have been accused of war crimes in Bucha.

Kristina Kvien, the US Chargé d'affaires ad interim to Ukraine, and her team returned to Kyiv with the aim of reopening the US embassy in the capital soon. This comes after Anthony Blinken, the Secretary of State promised last month that the US embassy will resume its work in Ukraine soon.

The UK
The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson pledged that they will provide an additional USD 1.6 billion to Ukraine, in aid and military support. He made the announcement ahead of his video conference with Zelenskyy and the leaders of the G7 countries. This pledge almost doubles UK's previous commitments, and Johnson said that the money will come out of the reserve the government uses for emergencies.

On 08 May, Britain announced that they will increase the tariffs imposed on platinum and palladium imported from Russia and Belarus. Not only will the tariffs be raised by 35 per cent points, but Britain will also ban the export of goods like chemicals, plastics, rubber, and machinery to Russia, worth a combined USD 310 million.

Germany
On 7th May in Berlin, criminal investigators and prosecutors studied an explosive device that has been found and destroyed at a residential building that houses Russian news agency staff. A Berlin police spokesperson said that they are now looking into how dangerous the device was and who it might have been aimed at. Russia’s foreign ministry said that this was a direct consequence of the harassment that Russian media is facing in the West. This is regarding the new European Union sanctions and the decision to disconnect Russian media from their airwaves.

On 08 April, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a televised address marking the anniversary of the end of World War II. He referred to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and said: “Putin will not win this war. Ukraine will persevere.”

Canada
Canada’s prime minister, Justine Trudeau made a surprise visit to Irpin and Kyiv and said that the world will do anything that they can to ensure that Russia loses the war in Ukraine. After his talk with Zelenskyy, he addressed a news conference and confirmed that Canada will impose a fresh set of sanctions on individuals and organizations connected to Moscow. He also promised to provide more assistance to Ukraine, in the form of military aid and equipment.

Bulgaria
Considering the new set of sanctions that are being discussed by the European Union, Bulgaria’s deputy prime minister, Assen Vassilev said that they will not be able to support the ban, unless they are granted a derogation for now. 

Italy
On 06 May, under the new European Union sanctions, Italy ordered the seizure of a 459-foot motor yacht, allegedly owned by a person with “significant economic and business connections,” to Moscow. Italian media reports that the vessel, Scheherazade is owned indirectly by president Putin, and is the 12th largest privately owned yacht in the world.

Moldova
On 07 May, Moldova reported on several blasts near the village of Vărăncău, it predicts it by explosives that could have been dropped through drones. This is alarming because this is the second week when similar incidents have been reported in the Transdniestria breakaway region, raising concern that Ukraine and Russia's war is spilling over to the frontier. While Transdniestria's interior ministry said that no one has been injured in the attacks, they also released photos of craters that the overnight strikes have allegedly created.

The Global fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

G7
On 08 May, after a virtual meeting with president Zelenskyy, the G7 leaders said that they will be reinforcing the economic isolation of Russia. They said that they will phase out the usage of Russian oil. A joint statement released by the G7 read: “We will continue and elevate our campaign against the financial elites and family members, who support President Putin in his war effort and squander the resources of the Russian people.”

WHO
The World Health Organization has said that they are gathering evidence against Russia for possible war crimes committed on healthcare facilities in Ukraine. Mike Ryan, the Emergencies Director of WHO said warring parties half to explicitly try and avoid attacks on health facilities but who has still documented over 200 attacks on hospitals and clinics in Ukraine.

Red Cross
On 07 May, the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRRC) said that they were hopeful that the civilians in the Azovstal steel plant could be successfully evacuated. A senior official Dominik Stillhart, said: “Experience shows that a successful action helps further evacuations because now both sides have seen that it works. We hope that we can now build on this minimum of trust.”

References
Evil returns when human rights and the law are violated and culture is destroyed; this is exactly what happened to Russia - address by the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 07 May 2022
Address by the President of Ukraine on the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation,” President of Ukraine, 08 May 2022
Speech by the President of Ukraine at the video conference of the G7 leaders,” President of Ukraine, 08 May 2022
Ukraine is already a full-fledged part of the free world and a united Europe - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 08 May 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the President of the Storting of Norway,” President of Ukraine, 08 May 2022
Head of State met with the President of the German Bundestag,” President of Ukraine, 08 May 2022
Ukraine is interested in exchanging experience with EU and NATO countries in the field of modern armaments and technologies - Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 08 MAy 2022
President held a meeting on fuel supply and execution of the state budget,” President of Ukraine, 07 May 2022
Russian forces destroy weapons from US and Western countries at Sol railway station,” TASS, 08 May 2022 
Russian aviation destroyed Ukrainian Project 1241 corvette near Odessa - Defense Ministry,” TASS, 08 May 2022 
Russian Armed Forces destroy weapons supplied by West in Kharkov Region,” TASS, 07 May 2022
US in fact admits it coordinates Ukraine’s military operations against Russia - speaker,” TASS, 07 May 2022
Parliament speaker expects domestic, Asian firms to replace companies leaving Russia,” TASS, 07 May 2022 
Russian air defenses down 17 Ukrainian dones, three Tochka-U missiles last night,” TASS, 07 May 2022
Russia presents at UN vast evidence of crimes by Ukrainian military,” TASS, 07 May 2022 
Russian Deputy PM visits ruined Ukrainian city of Mariupol,” Reuters, 08 May 2022
US first lady Jill Biden makes unannounced visit to Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 May 2022
Last wave of Azovstal plant evacuees reaches Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia,” Reuters, 08 May 2022
Sixty feared dead in bombing of Ukraine school; G7 condemns Putin, Reuters, 08 May 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy 'speechless' after shelling destroys museum dedicated to poet, Reuters, 07 May 2022
Jill Biden meets Ukrainian refugee mothers and teachers in Romania,Reuters, 07 May 2022 
Jeff Mason, “
U.S. first lady Jill Biden makes unannounced visit to Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 May 2022 
Jill Biden meets Ukraine refugees, volunteers in Slovakia,”  Reuters, 08 May 2022 
Jeff Mason and Steve Holland, “
U.S. imposes sanctions on 27 Gazprombank executives, Russian TV stations,” Reuters, 08 May 2022 
Juian Borger, “
US unveils new sanctions on Russia, targeting services, media and defense industry,The Guardian, 08 May 2022 
Ken Thomas, “
U.S. Targets Russian Media, Bank Executives With New Sanctions,The Wall Street Journal, 08 May 2022
Andrew Macaskill, “
UK to provide 1.3 billion pounds of further military support to Ukraine,Reuters, 07 May 2022 
Britain to increase tariffs on Russian platinum, palladium in new sanctions,Reuters, 08 May 2022
Berlin authorities looking into device disabled at residence housing Russian media,” Reuters, 07 May 2022
Germany's Scholz says on WW2 anniversary Putin will not win his war,Reuters, 08 May 2022
"Canada's Trudeau announces new weapons for Ukraine in visit to Kyiv,” Reuters, 09 May 2022 
Tom Balmforth, “
Trudeau: World determined to make sure Putin loses in Ukraine,Reuters, 09 May 2022 
Italy Seizes Yacht With Ties to Russian Leadership,” The Wall Street Journal, 07 May 2022
Bulgaria says will veto EU oil sanctions on Russia if it does not get derogation,” Reuters, 09 May 2022 
Chinese calculations on Taiwan affected by Ukraine conflict, says CIA director,Reuters, 07 May 2022
G7 leaders pledge further economic isolation of Russia,” Reuters, 08 May 2022 
G7 to phase out Russian oil, U.S. sanctions Gazprombank execs over Ukraine war,Reuters, 08 May 2022 
WHO gathers evidence for possible war crimes investigation against Russia,Reuters, 07 May 2022
ICRC official sees hope for more evacuations from besieged Mariupol,” Reuters, 07 May 2022
Moldova separatists report drone strikes near Ukraine border,Reuters, 07 May 2022


07 May 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #195

War in Ukraine: Day 72

Canada, South Korea and Luxemburg join NATO CCDCOE; Northern Ireland election becomes historic as many seats are won by Sinn Féin

Photo : EVAN VUCCI/ASSOCIATED PRESS


War in Ukraine: Day 72
By Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee, and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 06 May, president Zelenskyy in a video conference addressed the UK based think tank Chatham House on challenges posed by Russia in the region. He accused Russia’s armed force of extreme brutality and contempt for international conventions and human rights. He also claimed Russia of nuclear blackmail through their propaganda media by using graphic descriptions of how the attack would play out. He further stated that Russia is deliberately disrupting world food markets by seizing several Ukrainian shipping ports for export.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy addressed the people and the parliament of Iceland. Even though Iceland and Ukraine are located on opposite ends of Europe, with very different weather and economic conditions, he emphasized that both countries appreciate liberty. He also claimed that over 500,000 Ukrainians have been illegally deported to remote regions of Russia.

Also on 06 May, president Zelenskyy awarded various titles to the military and members of the families of fallen defenders on the occasion of Ukraine’s Infantry Day. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valerii Zaluzhny was titled the first Knight of the Cross of Military Merit for successfully organizing the defence of the state from the start of Russia's armed aggression and personally leading the heroic resistance of his forces to the invasion.

Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Oleksandr Okhrimenko, Deputy Commander of the mechanized battalion of the 72 separate mechanized brigades, Captain Vladyslav Kaliyevsky, combat medic of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade, Sergeant Dariya Mazurenko also received the same award. The Golden Star Order was awarded to six heroes and the family of a soldier posthumously,

Zelenskyy stated that these individuals' heroism, wisdom, and military success to resist the Russian invasion will give all our citizens a special hope for triumph.

Mariupol
On 06 May, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of breaking a truce meant to evacuate dozens of civilians trapped in the bunkers of Azovstal steelworks by firing at a car. President Zelenskyy stated if Russia kills civilians or injured soldiers who could otherwise be released, Ukraine would no longer hold peace talks with Moscow. Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk, reported that 50 civilians including children were evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant to a camp in the Russian-occupied town of Bezimenne. Russian news agency TASS said a third bus was on the way to the camp.

Kyiv
On 06 May, the deputy infrastructure minister Mustafa Nayyem stated Ukraine expects to increase export capacity by 50 per cent in the months ahead by developing facilities along its western border, however, it will still be below pre-war levels. The country was forced to trade through minor Danube river ports and railway terminals along its western border, after the Russian Invasion. He mentioned that in April, 3.5 million tonnes of goods were moved through the western borders by rail alone, and national railway operators are building border terminals for general and liquid goods, as well as reloading from broad to narrow gauge and vice versa.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy met with the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to stress the significance of increasing sanctions on Russia. He further expressed gratitude to the Baltic states for their strong support and advocacy in the EU and worldwide.

Letter to Doctors Without Borders
On 05 May, the deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk appealed to Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) to assist in the evacuation of soldiers trapped in the Azovstal steelworks. The letter of appeal stated she had asked the organization to "Assess their physical and mental condition, collect evidence of the conditions they are in, and provide medical assistance to Ukrainians whose human rights have been violated by the Russian Federation." 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia

Russian aggression in Ukraine
Russia’s defence ministry reported that they have destroyed two ammunition depots, one in Kramatorsk, to the east of Ukraine, and the other one in Popasna. They allegedly also managed to take 31 areas where Ukraine’s troops had been deployed. Russian missiles. Moreover, they mentioned that their air defences have shot down two of Ukraine’s warplanes, a Su-25, and a MiG-29, in the eastern Luhansk region. 

Russia’s foreign ministry
Russia’s foreign ministry recently said that they have summoned Deborah Bronnert, Britain's ambassador to Russia, as a sign of protest against the new sanctions that the UK plans to impose on Russian media organizations and individuals. The ministry also said that they will continue to react "harshly and decisively" to all future sanctions by the UK.

Russia’s views on Mariupol
On 06 May, RIA reported that two buses, one carrying 12 people and the other carrying 13 civilians had left the Azovstal complex and brought to Bezinenne, a town under Russia’s control. On the other hand, Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy alleged that a report by Reuters on 01 May had censored parts where one evacuee from Mariupol say how Ukraine’s forces had kept them in the steelworks against their will. He alleged that Natalia Usmanova’s account of her experience had been misreported, but the Reuters spokesperson said that the organization stood by the reporting and was looking into verifying the claims.

Impending Victory Day celebrations
Russia is readying itself for the upcoming celebration on 09 May, which they celebrate as the Victory Day. Russia's President Vladimir Putin is all set to send a warning to the West when he leads the celebrations on Monday, commemorating the 77th Victory Day. The Red Square will see a parade of troops, tanks, rockets, and ICBMs which will follow a speech by the president. Speculations have been growing if Russia is planning any power move regarding their invasion of Ukraine, for that day, but so far no such inclination has been observed.

Peskov’s announcements
On 06 May, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the allegation that Russia is stealing food grains from Ukraine is likely to be false. A UN food agency has alleged that Russia has been moving trucks of grains out of the occupied regions in Ukraine.

Peskov also gave an update with regards to the Victory Day celebrations in Ukraine. In a press briefing, he said that a parade will be taken out in Mariupol to commemorate the day when in 1945 Russia has celebrated victory against the Nazi forces. 

Peskov also referred to Poland and their call to the EU to strengthen the sanctions in the face of this Russian aggression. He said that this narrative that is developing in Warsaw could be a potential “source of threat.”

Moscow issues warrant on dissenting journalist
On 06 May, a Moscow court ordered the arrest of the prominent Russian journalist Alexander Nevzorov, for spreading fake news about the war in Ukraine. He has alleged that Russia’s military had shelled a maternity facility in Mariupol. Nevzorov has 1.8 million subscribers on his YouTube channel and has written a letter to Russia’s spokesperson to close the case, and has called this investigation ridiculous. According to the court, he will face two months of detainment for two months, if he returns to the country. Nevzorov’s wife has informed via Instagram that they are currently in Israel, even though they do not have any plans to shift permanently.

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 06 May, US president Joe Biden announced the next round of security aid to Ukraine which will include “artillery munitions, radars and other equipment.” Previously Congress had declared USD 13.6 billion as military, humanitarian and economic aid. Post the announcement, he also remarked that the government had exhausted its funding to large extent for Ukraine. He said: “Congress should quickly provide the requested funding to strengthen Ukraine on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.”

On 06 May, as per the reports from unnamed US media, US intelligence had provided information on the location of the Moskva to Ukraine which helped it to launch missiles. Till now the Pentagon has not responded, but US spokesperson, John Kirby rejected such a report. Another spokesperson said: “We do provide a range of intelligence to help the Ukrainians understand the threat posed by Russian ships in the Black Sea and to help them prepare to defend against potential sea-based assaults.”

Germany
Germany’s tank and artillery maker, Rheinmetall has predicted its sale to grow double or triple-fold as many countries are at the peak of increasing their defence. According to Rheinmetall, it expects orders close to EUR 31 billion by 2023 which was only EUR 4.68 billion as of 2021.

The manufacturing sector of Germany has been reported to have declined due to the effect of the Ukraine war and the lockdown in China. Since Europe’s manufacturing and Germany’s supply chain are interlinked. With lockdown imposed in China has affected Germany’s exports of cars and auto machinery. Till now the production per cent has fallen by 3.9 per cent compared to March 2022, which is seen as the largest decline since April 2020 pandemic.

Hungary
On 06 May, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban expressed his disagreement with the oil embargo imposed by the EU on Russia. He remarked that the move would trigger problems for Hungary which is equivalent to launching a nuclear bomb into Hungary’s economy. Although the European Commission has provided an additional year for Hungary and Slovakia to stop the oil and gas imports from Russia, Orban has asked for an extension of time and transition of EU money. For the oil embargo to be passed, it requires the consent of 27 member states of the EU. With Hungary opposing the embargo, it is likely for the deal being disapproved.

The global fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Inflation
The fear of market instability, volatility, and rising inflation have pushed investors to switch to commodity Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Since 2022, commodities, gold and other metals have performed well in the stock exchange with a 57.5 per cent inflow. The rate marks the highest in 40 years. Out of all, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is reported to be the highest inflow with USD 7.4 billion. As per the CFRA returns reports, ETFs ranked second, followed by agriculture and industrial metals.

On 06 May, SAP SE, CEO reported that the war in Ukraine along with the pandemic has challenged the forecast of the financial companies. Which has led to relying on Artificial intelligence for forecasts. According to the CEO, “This predictive analytics model has proven to be quite accurate and is giving us pretty good visibility.” The technology is not high-end yet to predict the invasion of Russia or pandemic, but it helps in assessing the impact of such event on companies within a 24 – 48 hours period.

The UN
On 06 May, the UNSC released a statement for the first calling for a peace process in Ukraine. It expressed its “strong support” for the efforts taken by the UN chief, António Guterres. It asked for the UN chief to find a solution to the Ukraine conflict. In response, Guterres appreciated the statement of the UNSC and welcomed its support to save lives in the war and its initiative to find a way for peace. He said: “Today, for the first time, the Security Council spoke with one voice for peace in Ukraine.”

The UN reported that it was involved in evacuating people from the Azovstal steel plant, where close to 500 civilians were recused in the last two UN operations. It estimates that many hundreds of people have been stuck in the steel plant.

References
Ukraine is defending itself against the onslaught of tyranny, and this struggle for freedom is comprehensible in every corner of the globe - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 06 May 2022
President presented awards to the military and members of the families of fallen defenders, who were awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine, as well as the first Knights of the Cross of Military Merit,” President of Ukraine, 06 May 2022
Pavel Polityuk, “Evacuations restart in Mariupol as Biden announces more arms for Ukraine,” 06 May 2022
Mariupol authorities say Russia violates ceasefire during evacuation operation,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Ukraine hopes to boost export capacity by 50% in coming months,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Ukraine asks medical charity MSF to help evacuate Azovstal fighters,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Ukraine announces new prisoner exchange with Russia,”Reuters, 06 May 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Baltic foreign ministers discussed support for Ukraine during the Russian aggression,” President of Ukraine, 06 May 2022
Russia says it destroyed large ammunition depot in east Ukraine,Reuters, 06 May 2022
Russia says allegation it is stealing grain from Ukraine likely 'fake',” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Kremlin says time for celebrating Victory Day in Mariupol will come,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Kremlin says Poland might be a source of threat,Reuters, 06 May 2022
Russia says its missiles hit 31 areas where Ukrainian forces were deployed,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Putin to send 'doomsday' warning to West at Russia's WW2 victory parade,”Reuters, 06 May 2022
Jenny Hill, “Victory Day parade: Moscow readies itself and turns up rhetoric,BBC Live, 06 May 2022
Russian envoy says Reuters 'censored' Mariupol evacuee's comments,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Second bus with 13 civilians leaves besieged Azovstal plant in Mariupol - RIA,Reuters, 06 May 2022
Russian court orders arrest in absentia of top journalist over 'fakes',” Reuters, 06 May 2022
Russian foreign ministry summons UK ambassador over media sanctions,” 06 May 2022
Moskva sinking: US gave intelligence that helped Ukraine sink Russian cruiser – reports,” BBC, 06 May 2022
Cristina Roca, “German Weapons Maker Sees Jump in Orders,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
Lori Ioannou, “Rising Inflation and War in Ukraine Push Investors Into Commodity ETFs,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
Nina Trentmann, “Ukraine War, Inflation and Covid-19 Keep CFOs on Their Toes Over Forecasts,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
Laurence Norman, “
Oil Embargo on Russia Would Hit Hungarian Economy Like a Nuclear Bomb, Orban Says,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
Tom Fairless, “German Production Flags, Hit by Ukraine War and China Lockdowns,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
James Marson and Georgi Kantchev, “
More Civilians Are Evacuated From Mariupol Complex,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
William Mauldin, “
U.N. Security Council Offers First United Message on Ukraine,” WSJ, 06 May 2022
Catherine Lucey, “Biden Announces More Military Aid to Ukraine,” WSJ, 06 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

AUSTRALIA
Facebook was accused of blocking the Australian emergency services page during the crisis
On 06 May, Facebook was accused of intentionally blocking Australian emergency services pages and causing distress to its citizens during the time of the fire and pandemic. The move is seen as a retaliation against the Australian government for passing a law that forced social media networks to pay for news organisations for the content they post on their platform. Facebook acknowledged it as an honest mistake to block other pages. It wanted to block only news outlets in Australia. But a former employee supported by the Whistleblower Aid charity handed documents to the authorities in the US and Australia stating that Facebook had deliberately blocked these pages to gain leverage over the Australian government. This was first published in The Wall Street Journal which shows that the tech giant had built a crude algorithm that identified any page that shared 60 per cent news content as a news provider. Facebook till now has denied such claims. (“Facebook accused of deliberately disrupting Australia emergency services,” BBC News, 06 May 2022)

ESTONIA
Three new countries join NATO CCDCOE for their cyber defence
On 06 May, Canada, South Korea and Luxembourg joined the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Center of Excellence. This organisation's main goal is to safeguard its members as well as NATO nations from cyber security threats and support them with their expertise in digital defence. To mark the occasion of the three countries joining NATO CCDCOE, a ceremonial flag hosting took place at its headquarters in Tallinn, in which representatives from the three nations as well as Estonian officials also attended. They focus on training, exercises, applied research, analysis, information sharing, etc. in the field of cyber security and defence. All three countries are pleased to strengthen their cooperation in the cyber sector and raise awareness about it. The organisation also combats any cyber threats and tries to prevent them. It gives a 360-degree look at the cyber defence and shares its expertise with its member nations. (“3 countries join NATO CCDCOE,” The Baltic Times, 06 May 2022)

NORTHERN IRELAND
Republican party Sinn Féin set to win most seats for the first time
On 07 May, the resumption of counting of votes in Northern Ireland's assembly election shows that the republican party Sinn Féin is set to win the most seats for the first time. A unionist party had been the largest in the government since the formation of Northern Ireland in 1921. This election was said to be making history as Northern Ireland wants to join with the Republic of Ireland leaving the UK if the majority of its people voted for it. The parties in Northern Ireland are competing for the seat of the first minister. With Sinn Féin at the lead with 29 per cent, Democratic Union Part follows it with 21.3 per cent, its vote falling by 6.7 per cent from 2017. The Alliance Party is third with 13.5 per cent. The result of this election will have a significant impact on the future of the Northern Ireland protocol. (Colm Kelpie, “NI election results 2022: Sinn Féin set to win most seats in historic poll,” BBC News, 07 May 2022)

THE US
Gucci to accept cryptocurrencies in American stores soon
On 06 May, Gucci stores will soon begin to accept cryptocurrency as a mode of payment in America. The Italian luxury brand joins an increasing number of companies that have started to accept cryptocurrency. Cryptos like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and even meme cryptocurrencies such as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin are taken as payment by the firm. QR codes will be sent through the mail to those choosing to pay through virtual currencies. Countries like El Salvador and the Central African Republic allow consumers to use cryptocurrencies alongside the US dollar. Even companies like tech giant Microsoft, the US telecoms firm AT&T and cafe chain Starbuck have begun accepting the virtual form of currencies. (“Gucci stores to accept cryptocurrencies in US,” BBC News, 06 May 2022)


06 May 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #194

War in Ukraine: Day 71

NATO spreading its influence in the Baltic region; Kishida meets Johnson at Downing Street discussing bilateral partnership

Photo : PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE


War in Ukraine: Day 71
By Ashwin Dhanabalan, Rishma Banerjee, and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 05 May, president Zelenskyy created a worldwide crowdfunding portal United24 to assist Kyiv in the conflict with Russia and rebuild the country's infrastructure. He said that the first step was to raise funds and other projects or programs will be added soon. All funds will be transferred to Ukraine's national bank and distributed to the necessary ministries. He vowed that the administration would also provide a report on the expenditure every 24 hours. Apart from this, Zelenskyy also met the 43rd US president, George W. Bush. Where both exchanged on the state of Ukrainians and their courage in the war. Bush also re-iterated the support of the US for Ukraine.

In his evening speech, president Zelenskyy addressed the participants of the Brave Ukraine charity event and mentioned that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has destroyed hundreds of hospitals and other facilities, leaving physicians without medications or the equipment to perform surgery. Zelenskyy also addressed the high-level International Donors’ Conference hosted by Warsaw for Ukraine. He emphasized the need for Ukraine to obtain EU membership amid the war through a special procedure. He further expressed gratitude to all the participants of the conference for creating a support plan similar to the historic Marshall Plan.

Also on 05 May, president Zelenskyy reported the death of a popular television reporter. Oleksandr Makhov, who volunteered for war was found killed in the battles near Izium. Zelenskyy also confirmed the evacuation of 344 people from Mariupol and its suburbs to Zaporizhzhya in the second operation.

On 05 May, Zelenskyy awarded seven employees of the National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) for showcasing courage, selfless action, territorial integrity, and exuberant performance of their duties. It was reported that the activities carried out by the NABU detectives had helped to save many warriors from being killed in the Kyiv attacks. According to Zelenskyy: “I am grateful and have the great honour to greet real Ukrainians today, real heroes of our state.”

Kyiv
On 05 May, the political advisor to president Olesiy Arestovych, stated that Ukraine is unlikely to initiate a counter-offensive in its war with Russia before mid-June, when it expects to have received additional weaponry from its allies. On the same day, foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said if any European country opposes the embargo on Russian oil, it will be accused of complicity in crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine.

Mariupol
On 05 May, several civilians remain trapped under the Azovstal steel plant that has been rattled by explosions as Russian forces pressed for the last stronghold in Mariupol. President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated that they were willing to guarantee safe passage for people, but reiterated demands for the Ukrainian military on the ground to disarm.

On the same day, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres informed the Security Council that a third evacuation operation with the Red Cross was underway to remove civilians from Mariupol.

A special report by Reuters
On 05 May, Reuters released a special report titled “The Bucha Brigades” investigating the remnants of Russia's hurried withdrawal from Bucha and discovered crucial clues to the identity of specific Russian soldiers and military units involved throughout the brutal takeover. A paratrooper named Aleksandr Logvinenko was tracked down owing to a love letter discovered amid the rubble. Journalists spent three weeks in Bucha interviewing over 90 individuals, analyzing photographic and video evidence shared by the villagers, and examining Russian records left behind. For the first time, numerous information regarding the military troops and the line of command was revealed in the report.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin’s call with Israel’s prime minister
On 05 May, President Putin held a phone call with Israel’s prime minister, Naftali Bennett. The leaders discussed ‌developing bilateral ties and developing mutual relations. During the discussion on the humanitarian issue, Putin guaranteed Bennet to provide a free passage to the civilians seeking evacuation from the port of Mariupol. Both the leaders recalled the memories of 09 May 1945, Putin highlighted the Nazi killings of 40 per cent of the Soviet people and wished for the wellness of “war veterans” in Israel.

Defence ministry’s update
On 04 May, the defence ministry said that they had successfully hit several Ukrainian positions, through their artillery strikes and killed over 600 Ukrainian soldiers. They also reported that 61 units of military equipment and weapons have been destroyed. Along with that, the Russian missiles have also struck aviation equipment at the Kanatovo airfield along with a large ammunition depot.

Russia’s stance on Mariupol
On 05 May, amidst reports of continuous attacks on the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Kremlin said that the humanitarian corridors were operating there. They denied the claims of increased aggression and referred to president Putin’s earlier orders to not storm the plant. 

Roadblock in negotiations with Ukraine
On 05 May, as per a TASS report, Leonid Slutsky, a Russian negotiator, and lawmaker, taking part in talks with Ukraine said that Kyiv was “rolling back” on their agreements. He said that this was making it difficult to conduct negotiations.

Allegations against NATO countries
Kremlin alleged that the United States, the UK, and the other NATO countries were helping Ukraine by ‘constantly’ providing them with information. They said that it was this information that had enabled Ukraine to kill 12 Russian generals. Dmitry Peskov spoke about this and referred to the supply of weapons to Ukraine as well. About the weapons, he said these: “do not contribute to the quick completion of the (Russian) operation, but at the same time are not capable of hindering the achievement of the goals set”. Peskov also dismissed the speculation that they were planning something even more aggressive in Ukraine, to commemorate Victory Day on 09 May. 

Russia takes steps against Denmark
On 05 May, Russia said that they have declared seven employees in the Danish embassy to be 'persona non grata'. The foreign ministry said that since Denmark had opted to go along with their anti-Russian policies, a similar response was obvious from Moscow as well. Denmark’s foreign ministry further confirmed that they have been informed about this decision and said that it was a “completely unjustified and deeply problematic decision.”

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 05 May, US first lady Jill Biden announced her plans to visit Romania and Slovakia to highlight Washington’s commitment to Ukraine and to extend her support to the women suffering due to the war in Ukraine. She would be meeting US service members and embassy personnel along with Ukrainian parents, children, aid workers, and teachers during her visit.

On the same day, the US mentioned that it had provided intel to Ukraine that helped it target Russian warships more effectively. The intel is speculated to have helped Ukraine target Russia’s Moskva. 

The UK
On 05 May, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson spoke to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the supply of arms and ammunition. Johnson discussed a possible supply of longer-range weaponry to Ukraine’s armed forces by the UK. A spokesperson said the two leaders also discussed the “provision of longer-range weaponry to prevent the bombardment of civilians.” 

On the same day, the UK said it would provide GBP 45 million to help the vulnerable in Ukraine. This brought the UK’s total GBP 220 million to an end as the package was dispersed between UN agencies and charities delivering vital aid. 

Hungary 
On 05 May, Hungary mentioned that the new sanctions by the EU on Russia would harm Budapest more than Moscow. Hungary’s prime minister wrote a letter to EU’s commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen stating Hungary’s concerns about the sanctions. Budapest depends on Russia for more than half its crude oil and oil products imports. 

France 
On 05 May, France announced that it would increase its overall financial aid to Ukraine to about USD two billion. France’s president Emmanuel Macron further called out the international community to renew their support to Ukraine to help it build civilian infrastructure.

Italy
On 05 May, Italy’s parliamentary panel opened an investigation into the disinformation shared on television. The parliamentary committee for the security of the republic summoned the head of the state TV network. The panel stated it was looking into foreign interference and disinformation activity with particular reference to the war in Ukraine. Italy’s public broadcaster RAI regularly hosts Russian journalists. 

Turkey 
On 05 May, Turkey’s president Tayyip Erdogan spoke to Macron on a call and discussed the war in Ukraine. Erdogan’s office released a statement saying that Turkey was doing everything it could to end the war through diplomacy. Erdogan also congratulated Macron for being re-elected as the president of France. 

The EU
On 05 May, the EU’s aviation safety agency (EASA) warned of increased risks to airlines due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The agency said there was also an increased risk of cyberattacks. In addition, civilian airlines and airports were at high risk of potential spill overs from the conflict. 

NATO
On 05 May, NATO’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg mentioned that the bloc would increase its presence around Sweden’s borders and in the Baltic Sea as the country’s application to join NATO is processed. Sweden and Finland have been seeking military protection assurances from NATO. Stoltenberg said: “I am convinced that we will find solutions for the security needs Sweden will have in a transitional period.” 

The global fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Iran
On 05 May, an analysis by Reuters mentioned how officials in Iran were in no rush to revive the 2015 JCPOA agreement as they saw it as an opportunity to increase revenues from exporting oil. The war in Ukraine and the destabilized energy prices opened a window of opportunities for Urban to provide more substantial leverage to negotiators whenever the talks are resumed. 

Israel
On 05 May, Israel stated that Putin apologized for Russia’s foreign minister’s remarks claiming that Hitler had Jewish origins. Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett said Putin had apologized on the phone. Putin also assured Israel that he would create a safe passage for civilians from the besieged Azovstal steelworks plant. 

Japan
On 05 May, Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida warned that the situation in Taiwan could be replicated in East Asia if leading powers do not maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Kishida commented on this as he spoke to Johnson and added: “Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are critical not only for Japan’s security but also for the stability of international society.” 

On the same day, Kishida mentioned that Japan would use nuclear reactors and energy to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. Japan became more reliant on Russia after the 2011 Fukushima disaster that triggered a meltdown in the north-eastern region. Kishida added: “We will utilize nuclear reactors with safety assurances to contribute to the worldwide reduction of dependence on Russian energy.”

Fiji
On 05 May, authorities in Fiji seized a USD 300 million yacht of Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. The authorities acted on a request by the US justice department as Washington has been pressing its allies to impose sanctions and restrictions on Russia. The Fiji court ruled in favor of the US and agreed to hand over the superyacht.  

WHO
On 05 May, the World Health Organization stated that it would consider holding a resolution against Russia next week. The organization plans to close its regional office in Moscow. The move is seen as a political step to isolate Moscow further. 

The UN
On 05 May, the UN said it would continue trying to evacuate Ukrainian civilians from Mariupol. The authorities said a third operation was going on to evacuate civilians from the city and the steel plant. The UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have successfully helped 500 civilians flee the areas. 

On the same day, the UN also found 188 abductions being carried out by Russian troops. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said: As of 04 May, my office has documented 180 such cases, of which five victims were eventually found dead.” 

Shell
On 05 May, Shell reported that it was able to increase its quarterly profits due to the high demand for oil and gas across the globe. Shell had withdrawn from Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which costed the company USD 3.9 billion. But, it was still able to triple its profits to USD 3.2 billion in the last quarter due to the ongoing war and the increasing demand for oil and gas. 

References:
Remembering the victory over Nazism means never really allowing what the Nazis inflicted on Europe again - President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address,”  President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
Speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the High-Level International Donors' Conference in Support of Ukraine in Warsaw,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
President of Ukraine held an online meeting with the 43rd President of the United States George W. Bush,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
President awarded NABU employees who distinguished themselves in the fight against the Russian occupiers,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
"Zelensky launches crowdfunding platform to help win war,” Kyiv Post, 05 May 2022
Address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the participants of the Brave Ukraine Charity Event, the people of Great Britain and the people of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets, “Battles rage at Ukrainian plant as UN rushes to evacuate civilians,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
No Ukrainian counter-offensive expected before mid-June, presidential adviser says,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Mari Saito, “Love letter, ID card point to Russian units that terrorised Bucha,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Telephone conversation with Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett,” Kremlin.ru, 05 May 2022
Russia still ready to provide safe passage from Azovstal, Putin tells Israel's Bennett,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Russia says Western intelligence to Ukraine won't thwart its goals,Reuters, 05 May 2022
Russian negotiator accuses Kyiv of 'rolling back' on agreements -TASS,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Russia killed over 600 Ukrainian fighters in artillery strikes - defence ministry,Reuters, 05 May 2022
Russia expels Danish diplomats in retaliatory move,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Ukraine war: Russia denies it plans to declare war on 9 May,” The Guardian, 05 May 2022
Gavin Jones, “Italy launches security probe as tempers fray over Russians on TV,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
EU regulator says risk of civil planes being accidentally targeted in Ukraine war,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Jill Biden will meet Ukrainian refugees in Romania, Slovakia on Mother's Day,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
France will increase financial aid to Ukraine by $300 mln, Macron tells donor conference,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
UK's Johnson, Ukraine's Zelenskiy discussed provision of longer-range weapons - Downing Street,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
"NATO chief says alliance will increase presence in Baltic sea if Sweden applies - SVT,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Turkey's Erdogan, France's Macron discuss Ukraine in phone call,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Orban says new EU sanctions against Russia would harm Hungary more -report,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Muvija M and Tommy Wilkes, “Japan to use nuclear to cut dependence on Russian energy -PM Kishida,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Ukraine plight could be replicated in East Asia, Japan's Kishida warns,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Tuvan Gumrukcu and Jonathan Spicer, “Analysis-War a lost opportunity for Turkey's westward outreach,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Parisa Hafezi, ”Analysis: Exclusive: Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Emma Farge and Francesco Guarascio, “Exclusive-WHO members to consider shutting Europe hub office in Russia over Ukraine - document,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Tom Espiner, “Shell profits nearly triple as oil prices surge,” BBC, 06 May 2022 “Israel says Putin apologised for foreign minister's Hitler remarks,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Michelle Nichols, “U.N. again trying to evacuate civilians from Ukraine's Mariupol,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
"Fiji seizes $300 mln yacht of Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov on U.S. request,” Reuters, 05 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

SWITZERLAND
Half a ton of cocaine was seized in a Nespresso factory
On 06 May, 500 kilograms of cocaine were confiscated by the Swiss police from a shipment of coffee that was sent to a Nespresso factory. Labourers of the plant in Romont found white powder in the sacks of coffee beans and immediately notified the authorities. Police later found cocaine in five more containers. After the initial investigation, it was discovered that the shipment had come from Brazil. The company reassured us that none of the coffee was contaminated and was safe for consumption. The estimated street value of the cocaine was expected to be close to 80 per cent purity worth EUR 50 million. The police traced that the cocaine was prepared to be sent into European markets. (“Cocaine found in coffee sent to Nespresso plant,” BBC News, 06 May 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
Protest to be held against overturning of US abortion law in Amsterdam
On 05 May, a solidarity protest was announced to be conducted in support of the abortion law at Dam Square in Amsterdam. The demonstration is scheduled to be conducted on 07 May, which will be carried out by many human rights groups and organizations. The message of the protest is to fight for the right to abortion which is at stake in the US. Around 1000 protesters are expected to participate at Dam Square. Earlier, thousands of people protested against the draft by the supreme court which abolished federal law of abortion in the US. (“Solidarity protest for right to abortion in Amsterdam Saturday,” NL Times, 05 May 2022)

THE UK
Bank of England predicts inflations this year
On 05 May, the Bank of England (BOE) forecasted double-digit inflation and a possibility of a recession in the UK. There might also be a prolonged period of stagnation according to the central bank which gave the most sombre prediction out of any major central bank this year. The interest rate would be boosted to the highest since 2009 which triggered a drop in government bonds. Policymakers are trying to contain the inflation that would be the worst in three years and is focusing on the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Low-income citizens may face hardships and the prices of goods may go up, especially the energy price. The annual GDP is expected to shrink by 0.25 per cent. Rising interest rates would alarm the common household but could keep inflation in check. (Philip Aldrick and David Goodman, “BOE Sees Risk of U.K. Recession With Inflation Above 10%,” Bloomberg, 05 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
UK and Japan form a defence partnership for the first time
On 05 May, UK prime minister Boris Johnson met with Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida in Downey Street to sign a defensive partnership. Japan also condemns the Russian invasion and sides with the western nations in support of Ukraine. They had talked about joint exercises and increasing relationships with regard to disaster relief. The agreement also follows the UK government's defence and foreign policy integrated review, which was published in 2021. It looks into the Indo-Pacific region, apart from this UK and Japan are considering reducing the dependency on Russian oil and gas and aim to utilize Japan's nuclear reactors. They also plan to create highly skilled jobs and ensure they are technologically superior. This is the first time that prime minister Kishida is visiting the UK after being elected in October 2021. (“UK and Japan sign military agreement amid Russia concerns,” BBC News, 05 May 2022)

NATO to consider Sweden’s application
On 05 May, NATO is looking forward to increasing its presence in the Baltic region. Sweden and Finland are considering joining the alliance after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 even though prior to that they stayed outside NATO. Both countries are seeking military security assurances from NATO. The process for them to join NATO would take them a year. NATO is highly obligated to guarantee Sweden's security if it plans to join the alliance. Russia had already warned both the countries of using of nuclear weapons if Sweden and Finland joined the alliance. The US has also promised Sweden's security for the application period but there was no concrete security guarantee. (Johan Ahlander, “NATO chief says alliance will increase presence in Baltic sea if Sweden applies - SVT,” Reuters, 05 May 2022)


05 May 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #193

War in Ukraine: Day 70

Narendra Modi concludes his visit to Europe; Left form a coalition against Macron for the upcoming election

Photo : Ursula von der Leyen/Twitter


War in Ukraine: Day 70
by Ashwin Dhanabalan, Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground
Zelensky's address
On 04 May, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his daily speech addressed the people of Denmark virtually on their 77 anniversary of liberation from the Nazis. He mentioned that he hoped for peace and called on the people to remember and mourn the 220 children killed in the Ukrainian war by Russians. 

Kyiv
On 04 May, spokesperson for Ukraine's state border service Andriy Demchenko stated that Kyiv would be prepared if Belarus joined Russian forces. The statement came following large-scale military drills performed by Belarus' armed forces. However, the defense ministry of Belarus said the exercise presented no threat to its neighbors or the European countries.

On the same day, Ukraine's intelligence service claimed that Russia is planning a military parade in the besieged city of Mariupol to celebrate its 'Victory Day' held annually on 09 May. The city's central streets are being cleaned swiftly of rubble, bodies, and explosive munitions. The intelligence described the parade as a "large-scale propaganda campaign" by Russia to sway the remaining 120,000 residents in the city, which is now mainly under Russian control.

Donbas
On 04 May, the UK's defense intelligence reported that Russia had positioned 22 battalion groups near Izyum, an attempt to advance into the northern part of Donbas. Russia is likely to capture the cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk. This would reinforce their military control of the north-eastern Donbas and serve as a frontier for their operations to block Ukrainian forces in the region.

On the same day, Ukraine's army general staff (AGS) stated that Russian forces were pressing hard along the Siviersky Donets River line, but Ukrainian defenses had withstood the onslaught and suffered heavy losses. Other battles for control of river bridges were still underway.

Also, on 04 May, Mariupol's mayor Vadym Boychenko reported that a new operation to evacuate residents from the city, and neighboring areas had begun. A convoy of buses carrying people left for Zaporizhzhia in the morning; however, it did not appear to contain any of the trapped civilians in the Azovstal steel plant. More than 30 youngsters are awaiting evacuation from the factory. He further stated that fierce combat is in progress and communication with Ukrainian fighters inside has been lost.

A new analysis estimates 600 killed in the Mariupol theater bombing
On 04 May, a new investigation led by Associated Press reported that over 600 civilians taking shelter in the Mariupol theater were killed by the Russsian bombing on 16 March. The testimonies of over two dozen survivors, rescuers, and individuals who were near the theater, have made it evident that the assault killed far more people than the previous estimate of 300. Survivors claimed that 1,000 people were inside the theater at the time of the attack, but only about 200 people were seen escaping. The investigation also denounced Russian accusations that the theater was demolished by Ukrainian forces or that it was used as a military base. As no soldiers were seen by the witnesses in the area and everyone was aware that the theater was being used for shelter and aid. 

The Moscow view: 
Claims by Russia

Russia discusses the war in Ukraine with Israel 
On 04 May, Russia's foreign ministry reacted to Israel's diplomat Yair Lapid, as he demanded that foreign minister Sergei Lavrov should apologise for his remarks against Jerusalem. Lavrov mentioned that Russia's special military operation in Kyiv was towards the denazification of Ukraine. Furthermore, Lavrov accused Israeli of supporting the "neo-Nazi regime" in Kyiv.

Concerns about Russia's possible debt default stalled 
On 04 May, foreign creditors mentioned that they would accept Russia's international debt payment obligations. This would allow Russia to avoid a technical default. However, Russia paid off its two sovereign bonds in USD, but it still has to be approved by the US and the UK. This comes as the West had imposed sanctions on Russia that froze its USD 300 billion gold and foreign currency reserves. 

Kremlin dismisses claims that Putin would declare war on Ukraine
On 04 May, Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Russia's president Vladimir Putin would not wage war against Ukraine on 09 May. He added: "There is no chance of that. It is nonsense." 09 May is Russia's most important national event as it serves as a remembrance of the Soviets defeating Nazi Germany and is commemorated as the "Victory Day."

Russia targets NATO convoys of arms shipments to Ukraine
On 04 May, Russia's defence minister Sergei Shoigu warned that it would hit shipments of NATO weapons to Ukraine. The defence ministry stated that it had fired two Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets from a submarine in the Black Sea. He further mentioned that next the military would consider NATO transports carrying weapons as military targets. 

Concerning the fighters in the Azovstal plant
On 04 May, Shoigu mentioned that the Ukrainian fighters in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol were being kept under a secure blockade. This comes as Putin ordered that the fighters were to be hermetically sealed off. 

Russia bans 63 Japanese officials 
On 04 May, in response to Japan's involvement in unacceptable rhetoric against Moscow, Russia banned 63 Japanese officials and the prime minister. The sanctions bar the entities from entering Russia indefinitely.

Ukrainian forces shell an oil depot in Makeyevka
On 04 May, Russia stated that one person was killed due to shelling by Ukrainian forces at the oil depot in Makeyevka. Russia's defence authority stated: "Take care of yourself and your family; try not to leave the house unnecessarily."  

The West view
Responses from the US and Europe

The UK
UK's military intelligence reported that Russia had deployed 22 battalion tactical groups, in Izium, to the east of Ukraine. They said that this was to help their advance along the northern axis of the Donbas region.

Germany
On 04 May, Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, requested Ukraine's help to untangle a diplomatic impasse that has been caused by Germany's president's supportive relations with Russia. Scholz said that it was a diplomatic problem that he was asked to visit the country while the president was not. This awkward twist in relations comes at a time when Ukraine tremendously needs Germany's support.

Belarus
On 04 May, it was reported that Belarus had suddenly started their large-scale drills to test its readiness for combat. As per Belarus's defence ministry, the exercise will include 'significant numbers of military vehicles,' but should not be any concern for their neighbours or the larger European community, as it was part of a routine drill.

Sweden
The ruling party of Sweden, the Social Democrats, said that they would be holding another meeting on 15 May, to decide whether the party will switch their stance and support the application to join NATO. The Social Democrats, who have been the biggest party in every election for the last 100 years, are the major obstacle to Sweden's NATO application.

Netherlands
On 04 May, the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said that the Netherlands would be assessing if they can join the UK, Germany and Belgium in supplying more weapons to Ukraine. He said that they would continue to support Ukraine's fight for democracy. He also conducted a phone call with Zelenskyy and praised how he handled the battle against Russia.

Bulgaria
On 04 May, Bulgaria's parliament, voted to allow the repairs of heavy military equipment from Ukraine in exchange of Ukraine's grains and electricity. This proposal won over the proposal to send direct military aid to Ukraine. Bulgaria is one of the few countries in the Black Sea region not to send arms to Ukraine, directly.

The EU
Patriarch Kiril of the Russian Orthodox Church has been added to a draft blacklist, that included many Russian officers and businessmen accused of supporting the war in Ukraine. The European Commission has also suggested freezing the Patriarch's assets. The sanction, which will also include a travel ban, has to be approved by the EU member states.

On 04 May, the European Commission deliberated on another round of sanctions against Russia, which now await the approval by the ambassadors of the EU member states, later this week. As of the recent meeting, the Commission has proposed a complete ban on buying Russian crude oil within six months and refined oil, by the end of 2022. Since Hungary and Slovakia are heavily dependent on Russian oil, they will be allowed access to it till the end of 2023. The Commission also reported that they want to remove Sherbank and two other Russian banks from the international SWIFT transaction and messaging system. On top of that, the Commission also suggested that they ban the three big Russian state-owned TV broadcasters, Rossiya RTR/RTR Planeta, Rossiya 24, and TV Centre International from EU airwaves.

The EU Council president, Charles Michel also said that the EU is considering providing additional military support to Moldova. This would be on top of the cyber and logistic support that will be given to Moldova. While he did not go into the specific of the support to be provided, he said that it was crucial to avoid any escalation in the region.

Other developments
In an interview, Pope Francis recently said that he has asked for a meeting with Moscow to discuss the war, but has not received any affirmative reply. Francis, who made an unprecedented visit to the Russian embassy when the war started, said that his message to Russia's top diplomat has still not been delivered. He said: "I fear that Putin cannot, and does not, want to have this meeting at this time. But how can you not stop so much brutality?"

The global fallout
International implications of the Ukraine war

Mexico
On 04 May, the Mexican president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said that they would not be imposing sanctions on Russia. He instead called for dialogue and said that they would prefer to remain neutral in the face of this crisis.

Brazil
On 04 May, the presidential frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva alleged that the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy bears equal responsibility for the war with Vladimir Putin. In an interview with Time magazine, the former president said it was even the Western leaders who should be promoting closed-door negotiations instead of encouraging Zelenskyy and his war efforts.

Japan
On 04 May, Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida said that Russia is to blame for the situation of their bilateral ties. Kishida and 62 other Japanese citizens have been banned by Moscow from entering the country; this is something that Japan has found unacceptable. The ban comes after Japan decided to enforce the sanctions on Russian political and business leaders. When asked about countermeasures, Kishida said that he was scheduled to meet the UK's prime minister on 05 May and that Japan will be cooperating with the international community and respond to Russia accordingly.

The UN
The Global Network Against Food Crises, an agency set up by the UN and the EU released their annual report. It said that conflicts in various parts of the world and the fluctuating weather and economy had already increased the number of people facing a food shortage to 193 million. As per the report, the crisis in Ukraine will only increase this number further. Global food security will definitely be hampered by the fact that both Ukraine and Russia are major food producing countries, and will exacerbate the crisis in countries like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

It was also reported that another convoy of buses, carrying evacuees from Mariupol left for Zaporizhzhia. This evacuation has been coordinated by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross. 

References:
"Address by the President of Ukraine to the Danish people on the anniversary of the liberation of Denmark from the Nazis," Presiddent of Ukraine, 04 May 2022
"Ukraine says it is 'ready' if Belarus joins Russian war effort," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"British Defense Intelligence Update – 04 May, 2022," Kyiv Post, 04 May 2022
Stefan Korshak, "RF attacks on Siviersky Donets River line stalled, more evidence of UAF counterattacks," Kyiv Post, 04 May 2022
Ukraine, UN and Red Cross renew efforts to evacuate civilians from Mariupol,' Reuters, 04 May 2022
Lori Hinnat, Mstylav Chernov and Vasilisa Stepanenko, "AP evidence points to 600 dead in Mariupol theater airstrike," Associated Press, 04 May 2022
"Russia holds airborne rehearsal of Victory Day Parade over Moscow," TASS, 04 May 2022 
"Press review: Russia, Israel in spat over Ukraine and will looming US downturn affect gold," TASS, 04 May 2022 
"Kremlin dismisses speculation Putin to declare war on Ukraine on 09 May," Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia says it fires cruise missiles from submarine, warns again on NATO arms shipments," Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia warns NATO: transport carrying weapons in Ukraine is a 'target', "Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia bars entry to 63 Japanese, including PM," Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia has said it will implement a ceasefire for three days from Thursday to allow more civilian evacuations from the Azovstal plant in the besieged city of Mariupol," The Guardian Live, 04 May 2022
"Britain says Russia deploys 22 battalion tactical groups near Izium,Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Germany's Scholz says Ukraine must help mend ties after president visit debacle," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Belarus begins snap combat readiness drills," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Sweden's ruling Social Democrats might speed up party's NATO decision,Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Netherlands assessing whether to supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine - PM,Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Bulgaria approves repairs to Ukrainian military equipment, not military aid,Reuters, 04 May 2022
"EU targets Russian Patriarch Kirill in new round of proposed sanctions - diplomat," Reuters, 04 May 2022
Francesco Guarascio and John Chalmers, "EU's toughest Russia sanctions yet snag on worries over oil ban," Reuters, 04 May 2022
Jon Henley, "EU to unveil Russian oil sanctions as evacuees recall Azovstal horror,The Guardian, 04 May 2022
"EU says considering more military support to Moldova," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Mexico's President not planning sanctions on Russia for war with Ukraine," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Brazil's ex-president Lula claims Zelenskiy equally to blame for war,The Guardian, 04 May 2022
"Japan PM: Russia responsible over bilateral ties after entry ban," Reuters, 04 May 2022
Maytaal Angel, "Ukraine war set to worsen severe hunger worldwide - UN report," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Ukraine, UN and Red Cross renew efforts to evacuate civilians from Mariupol," Reuters, 04 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Left join together to win against Macron in parliamentary elections
On 04 May, the left decided to unite and stand against president Emmanuel Macron in parliamentary elections in June. The Socialists, Greens, Communists, and the new far-left France Unbowed party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon joined together and reached a draft agreement after all-night negotiation. According to the left, this moment would be a historical one if all the parties unite and form a coalition. Instead of running against each other in the parliamentary election, the left-leaning parties would try to come under one banner to increase their odds of gaining a majority. The Socialists are yet to sign the deal. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would become the leader of the left as he was the most successful in the first round of the presidential election with 21.95 per cent of votes. It is a dream of his to block Macron's reforms in the parliament with the majority. (Hugh Schofield, “France elections: Left forms coalition to fight Macron,” BBC News, 04 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
France pulls out of the P-75I project of Indian Navy
On 04 May, France’s Naval Group withdrew from the P-75I project of Indian Navy before the visit of prime minister Narendra Modi to France to meet the re-elected president Emmanuel Macron. The project's goal was to build six conventional submarines domestically for the Indian Navy. The request for proposal (RFP) was related to the air-independent propulsion (AIP) system, which allows a conventional submarine to stay underwater for a longer duration and travel faster. RFPs were issued to the shortlisted two Indian companies, private Larsen and Toubro, and state-run Mazagaon Docks Limited. It also ties up with five foreign companies. Failure to forward the requests by the two companies has led to the withdrawal of the Navy Group. (“France’s Naval Group pulls out of India’s P-75I submarine project ahead of PM Modi’s visit,” The Hindu, 04 May 2022)

Modi returns to India after Europe visit
On 05 May, prime minister Narendra Modi returned to India after concluding his Europe visit. During the tour, he held a series of bilateral meetings with the leaders of Norway, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Denmark. The discussion took place in the areas of trade, energy, and green technology. Modi had extensive talks with the French president Emmanuel Macron during the end of his tour. He had also attended the India-Nordic summit in Copenhagen, Denmark where they discussed on the Ukraine issue, post-pandemic economic recovery, climate change, renewable energy, and the evolving global security scenario. (“PM Modi returns home after concluding three-nation European tour,” The Hindu, 05 May 2022)

Sweden is appalled by the decision of Iran to execute Djalali
On 05 May, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde, condemned the death penalty issued by an Iranian court to Ahmadreza Djalali, a Swedish-Iranian doctor. He was charged with espionage and would be put to death by 21 May for the same. Sweden and the EU condemned the death sentence and demanded the immediate release of Djalali. He said that he was brutally tortured and subjected to inhumane treatment and Iran officials have been forcing him to confess to something that he didn't do with a threat to harm his family in Sweden. Iranian Human Rights group accused the country's officials of threatening the execution of Djalali as a form of retaliation against Sweden which held the war crime trials of the former judiciary of Iran, Hamid Nouri. Nouri was convicted of international war crimes and human rights violations that took place in 1988. (“Ahmadreza Djalali: Sweden alarmed by Iran's reported plan to execute doctor,”BBC News, 05 May 2022)


04 May 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #192

War in Ukraine: Day 69

Possible surveillance of over 200 mobile numbers in Spain; World Press Freedom Index rates 28 countries negative

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 69
Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
 
War on the ground 
Zelenskyy's address
On 03 May, President Zelensky addressed the Albanian Parliament, expressing gratitude for Albania's clear stance against Russia and for the assistance provided. Zelensky also wished the people of Albania and other Muslims worldwide as they celebrated Eid al-Fitr. 

Attack on steel factory and military airfield
On 03 May, Russia fired rockets at the encircled Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol with around 200 civilians trapped underground after breaking the ceasefire on the same day. Captain Sviatoslav Palamar of Ukraine's Azov Regiment stated: "As of this moment, a powerful assault on the territory of the Azovstal plant is underway with the support of armoured vehicles, tanks, attempts to land on boats and a large number of infantry."

Russia also fired missiles at a military airfield in Odesa, Ukraine's southern city, destroying drones, missiles, and ammunition supplied by the US and its European allies. The Russian defence ministry reported hangars holding unmanned Bayraktar TB2 drones, missiles and ammunition from the US and Europe were destroyed. Various military facilities across the country were also hit by Russian missiles and artillery, including command centres, arsenals, and an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. In central and western Ukraine, missiles hit six railway stations with severe damage and disrupted train services.

Donetsk
On 03 May, a Russian assault on a coke plant in Avdiivk, the eastern part of Donetsk, killed at least ten people and injured 15 others. The attack was substantiated by Metinvest, the country's largest steel company, which said Russian troops opened fire on a busload of its employees shortly after their shift ended.

Lviv
On 03 May, Russian missiles destroyed three electrical substations disrupting power and water supplies in Lviv, a relatively peaceful western city far from the war frontiers.

Evacuees from the Avastal steel plant arrive at Zaporizhzhia
On 03 May, several evacuees who had been hiding for weeks in the bunkers of a steel plant in Russia-occupied Mariupol arrived in Kyiv-controlled Zaporizhzhia, where medics attended to them for burns and malnutrition. The UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) organized the five-day operation to evacuate women, children, and the elderly from the steel plant. 

On 03 May, an information and analytical agency, APK-Inform, predicted that Ukraine would face a serious shortage of storage facilities in the 2022/23 season as a result of a substantial drop in exports following Russia's invasion. According to data from the state statistics office, Ukraine's overall storage capacity is 75 million tonnes, with 44.5 million tonnes owned by agricultural producers. However, a portion of this capacity is located in war zones, reducing the accessible volume to roughly 61 million tonnes, implying that 35 per cent of the capacity will be used by the 2021 harvest. Ukraine may harvest 55.9 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2022, with a 16.3 million tonne shortfall in capacity.

Cost of war estimates
On 03 May, the Kyiv School of Economics released a report estimating the cost of war to be USD 600 billion. It is reported that the Russian invasion is costing the country USD 4.5 billion each week in infrastructural damages. The cost of direct infrastructure damage is estimated to be over USD 92 billion.

Call to ease the visa process in the UK 
On 03 May, Ukraine's ambassador to London, Vadym Prystaiko urged the UK home secretary Priti Patel to ease the "unnecessary, long, bureaucratic" visa procedure for refugees from Ukraine. As many Ukrainians remain stranded and lost in the system. According to recent government figures, 59,000 people have been granted visas but are yet to arrive in the UK. Moreover, only 15,000 of the 74,700 Ukrainians who applied for the sponsorship scheme have made it to Britain.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin's call with the presidents of Belarus and France
On 03 May, Russia's president Vladimir Putin held a call with Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko. In the talks, issues on bilateral agenda, promotion of union formation, Eurasian space, a special military operation in Donbass, and meeting of collective security treaty organization were discussed. Besides, measure to improve relations between Russia and Belarus also took place.

On 03 May, Putin held another call with France's president Emmanuel Macron. Putin congratulated Macron on the election victory and various issues relating to the Ukraine war were discussed. Putin highlighted that the special military operation in Donbass, the liberation of Mariupol and the evacuation process of civilians from the Azovstal plant was in terms with the agreement signed with the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres. He also noted that the war crimes committed by Ukraine forces and the death of the civilians in areas of Donbass could be brought to an end if the West stopped its supply of weapons to aid Ukraine. Despite the arguments about the attacks in Kyiv, Putin said that Russia was still open to dialogue with Ukraine. In the talk, Macron brought up the emerging food crisis, and Putin countered by saying that it was a result of heavy sanctions by the West. He also added that, the sanctions had destroyed the operations of logistics and "transport infrastructure." 

Apart from the call with the leaders, president Putin signed a decree aimed at unfriendly nations and international organizations. Through the decree, Russia enforces to ban the export of its products, and raw materials to those countries which are imposing sanctions. Further, it also proposes to exit from the existing contracts with MNC companies that are under sanctions.

Russia Foreign Ministry
On 03 May, the Foreign Ministry alleged Israeli minister for bringing the "anti-historical statements" to the front. The Israel minister had accused Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov of making remarks on Hitler as part of Jewish. He demanded an apology for making such a statement. He said: "both an unforgivable and outrageous statement as well as a terrible historical error. Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust." The word clash has turned the relations between Israel and Russia into a serious crisis.

Russia's Defense Ministry
As per the RIA News Agency, "Azov and Ukrainian servicemen, who are stationed on the plant, took advantage of it. They came out of the basement; they took up firing positions on the territory and in the factory buildings." It also reported that Russia's army along with the Donetsk People's Republic had been using artillery, aviation and weapons to demolish the firing position held by the Ukraine forces.
 
Other developments
On 03 May, an internet service disruptor firm NetBlocks claimed to have rerouted its internet traffic in Kherson using its communication infrastructure. Earlier a UK based organization had confirmed on tracking down the internet shut down in Kherson. According to  NetBlocks: "Connectivity on the network has been routed via Russia's internet instead of Ukrainian telecoms infrastructure and is hence likely now subject to Russian internet regulations, surveillance, and censorship."

The West View:
Responses from Europe

The UK
On 03 May, the government said that they would be donating 13 armoured vehicles to reinforce the war efforts in Ukraine. It was reported that the vehicles are steel plated, and can resist mines, explosive devices and high-velocity bullets. They can also be used to transport officials and workers as well. The foreign secretary Liz Truss said: "This latest donation of armoured vehicles will help protect innocent Ukrainians attempting to flee Russian shelling and support Ukrainian officials carrying out vital work." 

On 03 May, addressing Ukraine's parliament, prime minister Boris Johnson said he believed that Ukraine will emerge victorious against this invasion by Russia. Taking a leaf out of UK's wartime leader, Winston Churchill's speech he said: "Ukraine will win, Ukraine will be free… This is Ukraine's finest hour, that will be remembered and recounted for generations to come." He is the first western leader to address Ukraine's parliament since the beginning of the war. He also announced a further USD 375 million to Ukraine, for military aid, including electronic warfare equipment as well as a counter-battery radar system.
 
Germany
On 03 May, the German Chancellor has a meeting with the German cabinet and the prime ministers of Sweden and Finland, at the government's guest house. There he issued a warning that Russia might attack any country given the imperialistic nature of their president and the fact that they do not hesitate to violate international laws. He also said that Germany would extend their support to Sweden and Finland should they choose to join NATO.
 
France
French president Emmanuel Macron in a phone call with Vladimir Putin said that he is open to working with international organizations to negotiate and lift the Russian embargo on exports of food via the Black Sea. Macron also reiterated that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia was of utmost importance, and mentioned that he had spoken to Putin about the situation in Mariupol and Donbas. A statement quoting Macron said: "I have called on Russia to live up to its international responsibility as a UN Security Council member by putting an end to this devastating attack."
 
Austria
On 03 May, Austria's foreign minister said that the if EU was indeed serious about Ukraine's membership, the organization must consider radical treaty change. He also mentioned how this was a 'geostrategic moment' for Europe, and that they would have to do more than impose sanctions on Russia or provide aid to Ukraine. 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

India
On 03 May, prime minister Modi, who is in Copenhagen for the India-Nordic summit, issued a statement about the Ukraine war, in a press briefing. Keeping in line with India's neutral stance, he said: "We appealed for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and for the adoption of dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the problem."
 
South Africa
On 03 May, BBC reported that the leader of South Africa's opposition party, John Steenhuisen is in Ukraine for a six-day fact-finding mission. He is the first African leader to visit Ukraine since the war began, and he criticized the neutral stance taken by the South African government. He said, "Our defence minister and the head of the army were toasting the Russian army on the night of the invasion at the Russian embassy in South Africa… It doesn't make sense that they would use that as the excuse for sitting on their hands while a humanitarian crisis like this is raging."
 
North Korea

On 03 May, analysts associated with the Stimson Centre, said that North Korea's isolated economy will bear the brunt of the economic instability caused by the Covid 19 crisis and the Ukraine War. On top of that, natural disasters like floods will only be exacerbating the economic crisis in North Korea. With regards to how this might affect the country, Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, an economic expert, said: "As food prices in North Korea do often move in tandem with global prices, we're likely to see current food price hikes mirrored in North Korea as well over time,"
 
The UN
On 03 May, the UN special representative on sexual violence in war, Pramila Patten said, that men and boys have been rape victims by Russian soldiers in Ukraine. This comes after several reports of sexual violence by the invading forces have already been made. Patten said: "It's hard for women and girls to report [rape] because of stigma amongst other reasons, but it's often even harder for men and boys to report … we have to create that safe space for all victims to report cases of sexual violence."

WHO
On 03 May, a spokesperson from the WHO informed that the organization will hold a special meeting to discuss the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine's health infrastructure, and healthcare systems. The meeting that was requested by Ukraine, and was signed by 38 other countries, is supposed to be held on 10 May.
 
Red Cross
On 03 May, the head of the Red Cross in Ukraine spoke about the people still stuck in the Mariupol region who are awaiting evacuation. He said that there was signs that intense fighting was continuing amidst humanitarian efforts to gain access to the civilians stuck there. Pascal Hundt, from the International Committee of the Red Cross, said: "We would have hoped that many more people would have been able to join the convoy and get out of hell. That is why we have mixed feelings."

References:

Kristo Kote, "Zelensky Addresses Albanian Parliament as Ukraine War Rages," 03 May 2022
"Russia says it bombed US and European weapons near Ukraine's Odesa," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"At least 10 killed in Russian shelling of coking plant in eastern Ukraine - local governor," Reuters, 03 May 2022
Reis Thebault, "Strikes on Lviv, railways underscore Russian attempts to destroy Ukrainian infrastructureThe Washington Post, 03 May 2022
Joseph Campbell and Alessandra, "Exhausted evacuees from Mariupol steel plant reach safety in Ukrainian city," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"Telephone conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko," Kremlin.ru, 03 May 2022
"Telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron," Kremlin.ru, 03 May 2022
"BBC Live," BBC, 03 May 2022
"UK donates armoured vehicles to help Ukraine evacuation effort," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"Don't assume 'imperialistic' Putin won't attack other countries, Scholz says," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"Austria says EU must consider radical treaty change over Ukraine," Financial Times, 03 May 2022
"WHO to hold urgent meeting on Ukraine invasion's health impact,Reuters, 03 May 2022
"Ukraine's 'finest hour': UK's Johnson invokes Churchill as he predicts Russia will lose," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"India's Modi calls for ceasefire in Ukraine," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"France's Macron offers to help lift Russia embargo on Ukraine food exports,Reuters, 03 May 2022
"SA opposition leader on 'fact-finding' Ukraine visit," BBC Live, 03 May 20222
"Global problems may exacerbate shortages in N.Korea's isolated economy," Reuters, 03 May 2022
"Men and boys among alleged rape victims of Russian soldiers in Ukraine," The Guardian, 03 May 2022
"Civilians still trapped in 'hell' after Mariupol evacuation - Red Cross,Reuters, 03 May 2022


SPAIN
200 plus mobile phones were believed to be monitored by Pegasus spyware
On 03 May, more than 200 mobile numbers from Spain were speculated of being possible targets of data leak by the Pegasus spyware. Morocco has suspected the NSO group to be behind this incident. It was reported that mobile phones were hacked in 2021 and were revealed only recently. Amongst the tracked, including French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders. The Spanish government was found to be using the Pegasus software to monitor members of the Catalan independence movement. The government ruled out internal spying and is convinced of an external force behind the incident. (Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Sam Jones, “Over 200 Spanish mobile numbers ‘possible targets of Pegasus spyware’,” The Guardian, 03 May 2022)

REGIONAL
Apple faces the accusation of being anti-competitive by the EU
On 03 May, Apple was accused of breaking the competition law by the European Commission. Apple was charged for preventing third-party companies from accessing its online payment "tap and go" technology. Apple denied the accusations stating that it has been fair and equal access to all mobile wallet apps. The accusation looks into iPhones having restrictions with third-party access in regards to payment and Apple pay reaping all benefits. It further said that Apple pay was designed for privacy and security. But the European Commission has not found any evidence of security threats or risks. The tech giant had already faced anti-competitive accusations from the Commission when it launched Apple pay in 2015. (Beth Timmins, “EU accuses Apple of breaking competition law over contactless payments,” BBC News, 03 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Press freedom index rate negative for 28 countries
On 03 May, 28 countries were rated as "very bad" in the World Press Freedom index. Many countries are hindering journalists from doing their job. The annual list of press freedom was released by the campaign group Reporters Without Borders has blamed the internet and globalization for the spreading of fake news that has affected the media. Myanmar has fallen the most in the press freedom index after the military coup last year. The UK was placed 24th on the list despite having issues in Northern Ireland and the US was placed 42nd. The Nordic countries are once again at the top. Among the worst performers was Greece from Europe at 108th on the list, Hong Kong at 148, and Russia receiving one of the lowest rankings. (Jim Waterson, “Record 28 countries rated ‘very bad’ in press freedom index,” The Guardian, 03 May 2022)

The Caribbean states issue warning over UK's  proposal for direct rule
On 03 May, seven Caribbean states condemned the UK for a retrograde proposal that takes democracy a step back. Due to corruption in the government of the British Virgin Islands (BVI), London has decided to take charge of the islands. The UK proposed to disallow local democracy to tackle corruption. The premier of BVI was arrested and sent to prison in Miami, Florida following his involvement in a drug smuggling case. After the sting operation, Andrew Fahie was replaced by the acting premier, Natalio Wheatley. The acting premier opposed the move while seven members of the Organisation of East Caribbean States (OECS) issued a firm warning against it. They said that the UK operating BVI directly is similar to colonization and it will be a sign of regression of democracy. They also said that the people of BVI should decide on their government and the responsibility of strengthening their governance should fall on the shoulders of the people of the island. (“Patrick Wintour, “Caribbean states warn against direct rule of British Virgin Islands,” The Guardian, 03 May 2022


03 May 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #191

War in Ukraine: Day 68

Hungary and Slovakia may be exempted to join the EU’s embargo on Russian oil; Pegasus spyware was found in the mobile phone of Spain’s prime minister; Italy unveils plans to protect its citizens from growing energy prices

Photo : Maxim Shipenkov


War in Ukraine: Day 68
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address, continuing attacks, and Ukraine's military claims

Zelenskyy’s address
On 02 May, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of the threat of a food crisis across the globe. He reported that Ukraine was close to losing tens of millions of tonnes of agricultural products due to the port block it faces at the Black Sea. Ukraine is one of the top grain and food exporters, face a hard challenge from Russia, thereby affecting its economy.

Continuing attacks
On 02 May, Russia launched a new set of attacks on Azovstal steel works after a complete evacuation of civilians from the industrial area. According to a Ukrainian national guard commander: “A ceasefire has been declared for the past two days during a civilian evacuation operation. Two days passed quietly. As soon as the last civilian left the plant, shelling from all kinds of weapons began” He predicts 500 soldiers to have been wounded and the evacuated civilians are expected to reach Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine Military reported on attacks of the Russian military on Odesa using a missile strike. A loud explosion was recorded in the city. According to the press centre for the Security and Defense Forces of the South: “the strike has also damaged a religious building, information about the wounded is being clarified.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 02 May, the White House said US president Joe Biden would “love to visit Ukraine,’ but no current plans”. White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said the US would continue assessing the situation before agreeing to Biden visiting Ukraine. US first lady Jill Biden said she would be visiting parts of eastern Europe. She added: “I know that we might not share a language, but I hope that I can convey, in ways so much greater than words, that their resilience inspires me, that they are not forgotten, and that all Americans stand with them still.”

The UK
On 02 May, the UK promised to send an additional USD 375 billion in military aid to Ukraine. The aid will include electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system apart from the GBP 200 million. The UK has sent Ukraine more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles and five air defence systems since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. 

Denmark
On 02 May, Denmark said it plans on reopening its embassy in Ukraine. Denmark’s foreign ministry mentioned: “It’s a very strong symbol of the Danish support for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people that today we are reopening the doors to the Danish embassy.” 

Germany 
On 02 May. Two German ministers mentioned that Germany would be ready to back the EU in banning Russian oil imports. Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck stated: “Germany is not against an oil ban on Russia. Of course, it is a heavy load to bear, but we would be ready to do that.” 

Poland
On 02 May, Poland said it was preparing to be fully independent of Russian oil. Poland even offered to support other countries in cutting their fuel supplies from Russia. Poland’s environment and climate minister Anna Moskwa added, “Poland is proud to be on Putin’s list of unfriendly countries.” 

Finland
On 02 May, a local Finnish newspaper Iltalehti stated that Finland would apply for NATO membership on 12 May. The article further mentioned that the process would consist of two steps. First, President Sauli Niinisto would announce the country’s approval to join NATO, followed by the approval of the parliamentary groups.

Hungary 
On 02 May, Hungary stated that it was still opposed to any EU embargo on Russia’s oil and gas imports. Hungary’s spokesperson Zoltán Kovács said: “The Hungarian stance regarding any oil and gas embargo has not changed: we do not support them.” This comes as the EU plans to propose a phased ban of Russia’s oil imports as a part of their sanctions. Hungary also stated it had moved its embassy back to Kyiv from Lviv.

Sweden
On 02 May, Sweden said it plans to reopen its embassy in Kyiv. Sweden’s minister Ann Linde mentioned: “Sweden will continue to #StandWithUkraine, and are delighted that @SwedeninUA’s diplomatic presence will be back where it belongs.” 

The EU
On 02 May, the EU’s chief Josep Borrell said the bloc would be passing the sixth round of sanctions at the next foreign affairs council meeting. Borrell mentioned that the bloc hopes to curb Russia’s energy exports. He added: “But I am confident that, at least with regard to oil imports, this agreement will be possible between now and the next Council meeting.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Israel
On 02 May, Israel condemned comments by Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov that claimed Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins. Israel called it an “unforgivable” falsehood. The comments sharply deteriorated relations between Israel and Russia as Jerusalem’s foreign ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador and demanded an apology. 

Iran
On 02 May, an analysis by Reuters mentioned how the Iran nuclear deal was slowly dying as the world was focusing on the war in Ukraine. The EU played a significant role in reviving the pact in March; however, the talks did not happen as Russia proposed last-minute demands.

Saudi Arabia
On 02 May, Saudi Arabia said it felt let down by the US, which had promised to help tackle security threats. This comes as the US has been focusing on Ukraine as the war continues. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the declining commitment by the US as Saudi Arabia, and the UAE rely on its security umbrella. The OPEC countries resisted calls by the West to help isolate Russia. They also did not increase their oil production to help control the energy prices. 

Taiwan
On 02 May, Taiwan mentioned that it would start looking for alternatives as the US stated a delay in their howitzer supply. The US stated that a crowded production line caused the delay, and the delivery would not happen until 2026. The US has been ramping up its military support and supply to Ukraine; however, they did not cite this as a reason.  

South Korea
On 02 May, South Korea’s embassy said it resumed its embassy operations in Kyiv. South Korea’s ambassador to Ukraine and a part of the delegation returned to Kyiv. The ministry said: “The South Korean embassy is preparing to resume operation from 02 May and intends to conduct diplomatic work in Kyiv in even closer cooperation with the Ukrainian government in order to protect its citizens in Ukraine.”  

The UN
On 02 May, the UN announced that more than 3,000 civilians had been killed in Ukraine. The toll had reached 3,153, according to the UN human rights office (OHCHR). Most of the victims were killed by explosions caused by missile strikes and airstrikes. 

The UNHRC claims that more than 5.5 million people have fled Ukraine since 24 February. The statistics were compiled from multiple sources, but mainly from the authorities at the official border crossing points. 

References: 
Borrell says EU aims to pass new Russia sanctions at next Foreign Affairs Council meeting,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Jan Strupczewski and Kate Abnett, “EU may offer Hungary, Slovakia exemptions from Russian oil embargo,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Britain promises further $375 million in military aid for Ukraine,” Reuters, 02 May 2022
Biden would 'love to visit Ukraine,' but no current plans -White House,” Reuters, 02 May 2022
The US first lady, Jill Biden, will visit parts of eastern Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reports the Associated Press,” The Guardian live, 02 May 2022

Joseph Nasr, Christian Kraemer, “Germany drops opposition to Russian oil ban, ministers say,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Sweden to re-open embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday,” Reuters, 02 May 2022
Hungary moves embassy back to Kyiv,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Denmark foreign minister to reopen embassy in Ukraine capital,” Reuters, 02 May 2022  
Finland will decide to apply for NATO membership on May 12, says Iltalehti newspaper,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Poland is ready to be fully independent from Russian oil,” The Guardian live, 02 May 2022 “
Hungary is still opposed to any EU embargo on Russian oil and gas imports, government spokesman Zoltán Kovács has said,” The Guardian live, 02 May 2022

Crispian Balmer, “Israel demands apology after Russia says Hitler had Jewish roots,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
More than 3,000 civilians killed in Ukraine so far, U.N. says,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Arshad Mohammed, John Irish and Parisa Hafezi, “Analysis: Iran nuclear deal near death, but West not ready to pull plug,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
More than 5.5 million people have fled Ukraine, says UNHCR,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Saudis feel 'let down' by U.S. over Houthi security threats, says senior royal,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
Taiwan considers alternatives after U.S. informs of howitzer delay,” Reuters, 02 May 2022 
South Korean embassy resumes operations in Ukraine's Kyiv,” ANI, 02 May 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

ITALY
Italy introduces new schemes for rising energy prices
On 02 May, Italy devised a package of measures to safeguard companies and families from the rising energy costs. In the package, EUR 14 billion was set aside for state-guaranteed bank loans and EUR 200 bonuses for low and middle-income Italian citizens. Due to the Russian-Ukraine crisis, energy prices and the cost of living has increased in the EU’s third-largest economy. The energy producers and sellers were being taxed at a higher rate and were also taxed on their extra profit. According to the economy minister Daniele Franco, Italy expects EU 10 billion of tax in 2022. The GDP of Italy has dipped by 0.2 per cent due to the sanctions against Russia. Italy is hoping to overcome its dependency on Russian gas by mid-2024 with this scheme. (Giuseppe Fonte and Gavin Jones, “Italy unveils new stimulus plan as economic outlook darkens,” Reuters, 03 May 2022)

SPAIN
Pegasus spyware detected in the prime minister’s phone
On 02 May, Reuters reported that the mobile phones of Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez and defence minister Margarita Robles were infected with the Pegasus spyware. According to the government minister for the presidency Felix Bolanos said, the spyware was detected in May 2022 and at least one data leak had occurred. It is suspected to be the work of external non-official bodies. The High court has taken charge of the case. This issue may have a link with the members of the Catalan separatist movement, who were also the targets of Pegasus. The EU has called for a ban on Pegasus as there were allegations of it being abused to spy on rights activists, journalists and politicians. (“Spanish prime minister's mobile phone infected by Pegasus spyware, government says,” Reuters, 03 May 2022)

REGIONAL
Hungary and Slovakia may be exempted to join EU’s embargo on Russian oil
On 02 May, the European Commission stated it might exclude Hungary and Slovakia from an embargo on Russian oil purchases. The commission cited the two countries’ significant reliance on Russian petroleum. Hungary is mainly reliant on Russian oil and has repeatedly mentioned that it will not participate in energy restrictions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Slovakia and Hungary, both on the southern route of the Druzhba pipeline transporting Russian oil to Europe, are particularly reliant, acquiring 96 per cent and 58 per cent of their crude oil and oil products imports from Russia. The commission might offer Hungary and Slovakia “an exception or a long transition period” to keep the bloc united. (Jan Strupczewski and Kate Abnett, “EU may offer Hungary, Slovakia exemptions from Russian oil embargo,” Reuters, 03 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Crude oil futures are on a strong bull rally
On 02 May, oil prices reversed course to close on a positive note, leading to a rapid increase in the diesel market. This comes amid concerns that supply could be hampered by a potential EU ban on Russian crude oil. Brent crude futures rose 44 cents to close at USD 107.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 48 cents to settle at USD 105.17 a barrel. Diesel futures rose five per cent to USD 4.0172 a gallon. Both benchmarks had fallen more than USD two earlier in the session on news that the European Commission may exclude Hungary and Slovakia from a Russian oil embargo as it prepares to complete its sixth round of sanctions on Russia. (Laura Sanicola, “Oil settles up on distillate strength, supply concerns,” Reuters, 03 May 2022)


02 May 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #190

War in Ukraine: Day 66 & 67

May Day demonstrations held across Europe; US crude oil replacing Russian oil in Europe

Photo : JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP


War in Ukraine: Day 66 & 67
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee 

War on the ground
Ukraine’s foreign ministry’s comments
On 01 May, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister said that the next round of European Union sanctions must include the oil embargo. Speaking to Josep Borell, a top diplomat in the EU, he also discussed the situation in Mariupol. He said: "I also emphasized there can be no alternative to granting Ukraine EU candidate status. We paid separate attention to further safe evacuation from besieged Mariupol.”

Attacks on and evacuations from Mariupol
On 30 April, President spoke about how around 100 people have been evacuated from the region safely. This has been possible because there were two days of ceasefire in the region. The evacuees will be brought to Zaporizhzhia. This news has been confirmed by the UN and the Red Cross who are also helping in coordinating the evacuation efforts.

On 01 April, Ukraine said that another round of evacuation might be possible under the given circumstances. They advised the people seeking evacuation to gather at the meeting point at 4 pm. A Reuters photographer reported that 14 more people from Mariupol arrived at a temporary accommodation centre, after leaving the Azovstal steel plant region.

Attack on Odesa airport
President Zelensky said that a newly-constructed runway at the main airport in Odesa was destroyed by Russian forces. The mayor of Odesa, Gennadiy Trukhanov spoke about how the airport has taken 10 years to build, only to be destroyed by Russian aggression. He said: "Thanks to the new runway we were expecting a colossal influx of tourists from all over the world. Instead, we got a rocket strike… But Odesa is not a city which surrenders to difficulties. We will absolutely restore the runway after our victory and even more tourists will come to us." The Russian Ministry said that they used high-precision Onyx missiles to strike the airfield.

Other developments
On 30 April, in an online posting, Ukraine's deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk informed us about the prisoner exchange with Russia. As a part of the exchange, seven soldiers and seven civilians would be coming back. She, however, did not mention how many Russians would be transferred.

On 30 April, Kyiv police found the bodies of three bound men, in Bucha, which they claim are civilians. The bodies had also sustained gunshot wounds.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Foreign Ministry’s address
On 01 May, foreign Minister Lavrov said that, unlike popular belief, the upcoming anniversary of Russia’s liberation after World War II on 9 May 1945, will not be having any consequence on the military operations in Ukraine. Lavrov, in an address to the Italian television.  He said: "Our soldiers won't base their actions on a specific date… We'll commemorate our victory in a solemn manner but the timing and speed of what is happening in Ukraine will hinge on the need to minimise risks for civilians and Russian soldiers.”

Lavrov in his comments to China's news agency Xinhua said that Russia and Ukraine were discussing a possible treaty, on a daily basis over videoconferences. He said as a part of the peace talks, they have been discussing the issues of denazification and the lifting of sanctions. Ukraine’s negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak however, has denied these statements. He also mentioned that since the beginning of the war, around 2.8 million people in Ukraine have asked to be evacuated to Russia.

Defence Ministry’s update
On 30 April, Russia’s defence ministry said that four of their missiles have hit ammunition and fuel depots in Ukraine. They also mentioned that their artillery units had hit 389 Ukrainian targets overnight, which included 35 control points, 15 arms and ammunition depots, and several concentrations of Ukraine's troops and equipment. In an online post, the ministry also said that an air force strike has killed 200 of Ukraine's troops and destroyed 23 armoured vehicles.

On 01 May, Russia's defence ministry provided an update about successfully striking a depot stocked with weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States and European countries. 

Attacks in Russia
On 30 April, Russia's western Kursk region witnessed the firing of several shells, at a checkpoint near the border. The governor Roman Starovoit, on his Telegram channel reported that there were no casualties or damage. Reuters also reported that Russian air defences have prevented one of Ukraine’s aircraft from entering Bryansk region, but the resultant shelling has hit portions of an oil terminal and an adjacent territory.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
 

The US
On 01 May, house of representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi said the US pledged to continue its support to Ukraine until Kyiv wins the war. Her statements come as she visited Kyiv and met with Ukraine’s president Zelenksyy and said the US stands with Ukraine as it defends itself against “Putin’s diabolic invasion.” Pelosi added: “Our delegation travelled to Kyiv to send an unmistakable and resounding message to the entire world: America stands firmly with Ukraine.” 

On the same day, US senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he would request the Biden administration to add provisions in the new proposal for the USD 33 billion Ukraine aid package. He said he wanted the US to seize and sell the Russian oligarch’s assets and use the money for Ukraine. Schumer said: “Ukraine needs all the help it can get and, simultaneously, we need all the assets we can put together to give Ukraine the aid it needs.” 

On 30 April, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby lashed out at Putin and called out Moscow’s justification for invading Ukraine. He said: “I don’t think we fully appreciated the degree to which Putin would visit that kind of violence and cruelty and depravity on innocent people, on non-combatants, on civilians, with such utter disregard for the lives he was taking.” 

The UK
On 30 April, the UK military reported that Russian forces were forced to merge as many units had depleted due to their failed advances in northeast Ukraine. The military reported: “Shortcomings in Russian tactical coordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements.”

Norway
On 30 April, Norway announced that it would be closing access for Russian trucks and ships as it joined the EU’s sanctions against Moscow. However, they said the Russian fishing vessels that have been landing at the ports in the northern region would be exempted from the sanctions. Norway is currently not a part of NATO but is a part of the Schengen Area. 

Finland
On 01 May, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde mentioned that Finland would undoubtedly apply for membership in NATO. Linde added: “We know more or less that they (Finland) will apply for NATO membership. And that changes the whole balance...If one of our countries joins, we know that tensions would increase.” This comes as Finland’s foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said he hoped both Finland and Sweden would join the military bloc at the same time. 

France
On 30 April, France’s president Emmanuel Macron said the country would increase military and humanitarian support to Ukraine. Macron spoke with Zelenksyy and reiterated his “strong concern” over Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian cities. 

Germany 
On 01 May, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz defended his decision to not send heavy weapons to repel Russia’s invasion. He argued that he would be more cautious than make any hasty decisions. He added: “I take my decisions fast and in concert with our partners…I find hasty actions and maverick German efforts questionable.” According to the recent polls, this further led to his approval rate falling by 32 per cent. 

Greece
On 01 May, Greece experienced widespread protests in the May Day rallies. The protestors demonstrated against the rapidly increasing energy and food prices because of the war in Ukraine. Greece is also experiencing a surge in gas and power bills as the sanctions against Russia exacerbated its inflation rate to an all-time high.

Serbia
On 30 April, Serbia showed off its new Chinese made surface to air missiles and hardware it had bought from Russia in a display of support. The country seeks to show a balanced act over the War in Ukraine. President Aleksandar Vucic said: “We’re going to significantly strengthen our fighter air force ... Serbia is a neutral country and Serbia must find solutions enabling it to preserve its sky and its state.”

Turkey
On 01 May, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would continue undertaking efforts to organise meetings between Putin and Zelenskyy. Turkey’s diplomat Mevlut Cavusoglu said: "Our president is holding negotiations with both leaders.” 

The Vatican
On 01 May, Pope Francis discussed the war in Ukraine as a “macabre regression of humanity” that makes him “suffer and cry”. He urged for humanitarian corridors to evacuate the people trapped in the Mariupol steelworks. He added: “My thoughts go immediately to the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the city of Mary, barbarously bombarded and destroyed.” 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
 

Australia 
On 30 April, Australia’s Olympic Committee(AOC) said it would help and support Ukrainian athletes seeking to resettle in Australia on humanitarian grounds. AOC President John Coates said: “Today I announced that the AOC executive has by circular resolution last week, determined that the AOC will support humanitarian visa applications by Ukrainian athletes and will seek the assistance of you, our member sports, in their settlement requirements.” 

China 
On 01 May, China’s regulators held a meeting to prepare and protect China’s overseas assets from potential US sanctions. China wants to prepare for US-led sections that it imposed on Russia. 

Kenya
On 01 May, Kenya’s president announced that he would hike the country’s minimum wage by 12 per cent. He said he had increased the minimum wage to help workers cope with the surge in consumer prices which were caused by the war in Ukraine. The president's office said: “There is a compelling case to review the minimum wage so as to cushion our workers against further erosion of their purchasing power.”

The UN
On 01 May, UN chief Antonio Guterres called for a debt relief package for countries in Africa. The debt relief package would help the countries to recover from the devastation caused by COVID-19, climate change and the War in Ukraine. He mentioned how the supply chain disruptions had caused a simultaneous increase in food, energy and inflation in Africa. Guterres added: “International financial institutions must urgently put in place debt relief measures by increasing liquidity and fiscal space, so that governments can avoid default and invest in social safety nets and sustainable development.”

On the same day, the UN said it was trying to create a safe passage for civilians stuck in Azovstal steelworks. UN spokesperson Saviano Abreu said: “The operation began on 29 April and is being coordinated with the International Committee of the Red Cross, Russia and Ukraine.” 

References: 
Today we finally managed to start the evacuation of people from Azovstal, we will continue to do everything to evacuate our people from Mariupol - address by the President of Ukraine,President of Ukraine, 30 April 2022
 “We still need to fight and direct all efforts to drive the occupiers out, and we will do it - address by the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 30 April 2022
Ukraine says Russian air forces continuing to strike city of Mariupol,Reuters, 30 April 2022
Ukraine exchanges prisoners with Russia, 14 people coming home, deputy PM says,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
Kyiv police find three bound men they say were executed by Russian occupiers,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
Russia knocks out Odesa runway, Zelenskiy says it will be rebuilt,” Reuters, 01 May 2022
Fourteen more people evacuated from Azovstal plant - Reuters photographer,Reuters, 01 May 2022
Civilians from Mariupol flee Azovstal bunkers in U.N.-led evacuation,” Reuters, 01 May 2022
Lavrov says sanctions being discussed with Ukraine, Kyiv denies it,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
Russia says it hit 389 targets in Ukraine overnight,Reuters, 30 April 2022
Russia says it hit 17 Ukrainian facilities, killed more than 200 troops,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
Russia says checkpoint in Kursk region shelled from Ukraine,Reuters, 30 April 2022
More than 1 mln people evacuated from Ukraine to Russia since Feb. 24, says Lavrov,Reuters, 30 April 2022
Russia's Lavrov says May 9 not a relevant date for Ukraine operations,Reuters, 01 May 2022
Shelling in Russia's Bryansk region hits parts of oil terminal, Russian news agencies report,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
“Next round of EU sanctions on Russia must include oil embargo, Ukraine's foreign minister tells Borrell,” Reuters, 01 May 2022
Russia strikes U.S. weapons at airfield near Odesa, defence ministry says,” 01 May 2022Pelosi pledges US support on visit to Ukraine; civilians evacuated from Mariupol,” Reuters, 01 May 2022 
Finland almost certainly to apply for NATO membership, says Swedish Foreign Minister,” Reuters, 01 May 2022  
Greek workers protest at energy cost surge in May Day rallies,” Reuters, 01 May 2022  
Russian oligarchs to be targeted in US aid package for Ukraine, Schumer says,” Reuters, 01 May 2022 
Philip Pullella, "Pope says Mariupol 'barbarously bombarded', implicitly criticising Russia,” Reuters, 01 May 2022 
Nancy Pelosi meets Ukraine president in Kyiv,” Reuters, 30 April 2022 
Scholz defends Germany's caution on sending heavy arms to Ukraine,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
Serbia shows off new Chinese missiles in display of military power,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
"France promises to increase military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
"Britain says Russia forced to merge, redeploy depleted units,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
US lashes out at Putin's 'cruelty and depravity’,” The Guardian Live, 30 April 2022 
Norway Closes Access For Russian Trucks And Ships, Joins EU's Sanctions Regime Against Moscow," Radio Free Europe, 30 April 2022
UN chief calls for debt relief, post-COVID investment on West Africa trip,” Reuters, 01 May 2022  
Kenyan president hikes country's minimum wage by 12%,” Reuters, 30 April 2022  
UN confirms evacuation of civilians underway from Ukraine's Mariupol,” Reuters, 30 April 2022 “The Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) will support Ukrainian athletes seeking to resettle in Australia on humanitarian grounds,” The Guardian Live, 30 April 2022
China discusses protecting assets from US sanctions with banks, Financial Times reports,” Reuters, 30 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

SERBIA
Serbia flaunting its Chinese and Russian imported weaponry 
On 30 April, Serbia flaunted Chinese and Russian military weaponry publicly. Serbia displayed the weapons at the Batajnica military airfield near Belgrade. Serbia imported defence systems from Russia, China, the US and France. It showed off its defence to the media and the public. Even though Serbia wants to join NATO, they also have a long relationship with Russia. Most of the defence system that Serbia uses now is that of ex-Soviet technology. Most of the European nations especially Germany warned Serbia to align its interests with the EU if Serbia wants to become its member. Serbia is seen showing signs of distancing itself from Russia and China by buying weaponry from the UK and France. (Aleksandar Vasovic, “Serbia shows off new Chinese missiles in display of military power,” Reuters, 2 May 2022)

THE UK
Local authorities aim to develop climate action plans to reduce emissions
On 01 May, the BBC examined the role and powers of local councils in the UK to control emissions and tackle climate change. It may play a significant part in the upcoming municipal elections. The council’s first step after declaring a “climate emergency” is to create an action plan outlining the measures to reduce emissions. BBC suggests local authorities can build charging ports in lamp posts and parking spaces for electric vehicles to help residents. Most local councils have their own housing development companies and private partnerships, enabling them to install insulation and other energy-saving measures for energy-efficient housing. Further, the report suggested the promotion of onshore wind turbines and local green networks to reduce energy costs. Councils can also reduce the climate impact by systematic waste collection and recycling. (“Elections 2022: How are local councils tackling climate change?,” BBC, 01 May 2022)

REGIONAL
May Day demonstrations held across Europe turns violent in Paris and Berlin
On 01 May, traditional May Day demonstrations were held across Europe, while Paris and Berlin witnessed political and violent protests. On the eve of the peaceful march in Paris, a small group of people dressed in black, called “black bloc” anarchists, shattered windows of businesses and attacked cash dispensers while lighting dumpsters on fire. Simultaneously, a feminist march, known as Walpurgisnacht, started their rallies in Berlin, with a group of 2,500 marching to “take back the night.” According to the organisers, the rally’s purpose was to reclaim the night for women, lesbians, intersex, and transgender people. Thousands more took to the streets around the country to protest various issues, including the conflict in Ukraine, the rising cost of living, workers’ rights, rental regulations, and plans to increase military spending substantially. (Angelique Chrisafis, “May Day marches across France send pensions message to Macron,” The Guardian, 01 May 2022; Kate Conolly, “Feminist’ witch’ protest kicks off May Day protests in Berlin,” The Guardian, 01 May 2022)

Berlin files a case against Rome on filing compensation for Nazi-era war crimes 
On 30 April, Germany lodged a case against Italy at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for allowing its domestic courts to try Nazi-era war crimes and claim compensation. A 2012 ICJ ruling confirms that Germany has legal immunity from being sued for reparations in foreign courts by victims of Nazi war crimes in breach of their human rights. Despite the 2012 ruling, more than 25 additional compensation claims against the German state were filed in Italy. Berlin claims it is filing the complaint now because of two ongoing trials in which German state-owned properties in Rome might be auctioned to fund compensation payments. The ICJ can take years to rule; however, Germany has urged the court to take steps to prevent Italy from auctioning any property while the case is being tried. (“Germany takes Italy to UN court over Nazi-era compensation claims,” BBC, 30 April 2022)

Russia’s response to the EU sanction troubles Europe
On 28 April, the European Commission warned  Russian gas buyers to not breach sanctions if the payments are converted into Roubles.  Gazprom, a Russian gas company had cut supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, earlier last week after they refused to pay for gas in Roubles. This was a statement against the sanctions imposed by the West for  Russia invading Ukraine. Last month, a decree was issued by president Vladimir Putin stating that any country that Moscow deems unfriendly has to pay in roubles for gas.  Buyers have to deposit into an account at Gazprombank which then converts Dollars or Euros into Roubles and then proceedings are placed in another account of the buyer which makes it possible for the payment in Russian currency. This system will brake some of the EU  sanctions imposed on Russia.  The EU countries demanded clearer information from the officials on this issue. (Kate Abnett and Francesco Guarascio, “Europe struggles for clarity on Russia's roubles-for-gas scheme,” Reuters, 2 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
US light crude oil: An alternative to Russian oil
On 29 April, Europe had been importing light crude oil from the US as an alternative to Russian energy imports. Buyers and refiners from Europe have imported almost 1.5 million barrels of crude per day from the US. Most are light sweet grade crude oil which is exported to countries like Spain, the UK, Denmark and Italy. Due to Russia invading Ukraine, Europe has struggled to embargo the Russian energy supply as it constitutes 45 per cent of its energy imports. To reduce importing oil from Russia, they turned towards the US for the favour. The flow of oil from the US to Europe has decreased the flow bound to Asia, Latin America and Canada. European countries are buying this crude oil in large quantities at lower prices. (Arathy Somasekhar and Stephanie Kelly, “More of Europe's crude supply is coming from deep in the heart of Texas,” Reuters, 29 April 2022)


30 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #189

War in Ukraine: Day 65

EU’s border agency chief resigns; Protests in Virgin Islands

Photo : DANIEL ACKER/BLOOMBERG NEWS


War in Ukraine: Day 65
By Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address, people stuck in Ukraine ports

Zelenskyy’s address
On 29 April, President Zelenskyy in his daily address spoke about Russia’s continuous attacks in the Kharkiv and Donbas regions. He referred to increasing aggression by Russia and said: “Constant brutal bombings, constant Russian strikes at infrastructure and residential areas show that Russia wants to make this area uninhabited. Therefore, the defence of our land, the protection of our people is literally a struggle for life.” Zelenskyy also spoke about talking to president Biden about the Lend-Lease program and thanked him for it. He also mentioned how the country was looking how to prevent a fuel deficit in the country, in spite of Russia trying its best to destroy the infrastructure in place for proper production, storage and supply of fuel. He also criticised Russia's strike on Kyiv, during his talks with UN chief, António Guterres and said: “and this says a lot about Russia’s true attitude to global institutions, about the efforts of the Russian leadership to humiliate the UN and everything that the organisation represents.”

Ukraine sends a letter to WHO
On 29 April Ukraine's diplomatic mission in Geneva, Switzerland sent a letter to the WHO, requesting a meeting urgently. This is to discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion on the health and health care infrastructure in Ukraine. The letter which was signed by 38 members in the European region like France, Germany and the UK was addressed to the regional director of Europe, Hans Kluge, requesting him to convey a meeting before 9 May.

Peace talks with Russia might collapse
President Zelenskyy in an interview with Poland’s journalists said that he was pessimistic about the continuation of negotiations with Russia. He said that given the nature of Russian aggression and the public anger with Russian atrocities it might become difficult for Ukraine to conduct peace talks.

About 500 people still stuck in ships in Ukraine’s ports
Ukraine's shipping officials said that the skeleton crew stuck in the 109 ships in Ukraine’s ports were still stuck there. The number of people who still have not been evacuated was just under 500. These crew members were left on board to facilitate the evacuation of their crewmates.  International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) association along with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) reported that around 1,500 merchant sailors have been evacuated from these vessels. Natalie Shaw, an official at the ICS said: The escape route out of ‘the apocalypse’ must be open to these seafarers as well.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russia’s defence ministry
On 29 April, Russia’s defence ministry released a video that showed a series of Kalibr missiles emerging from the sea and going off to hit what the ministry said were Ukraine’s military targets. Russia reportedly used a diesel submarine, and this is the first time they have made an announcement about using their submarine fleet in Ukraine.

The ministry also released a picture of shows a person from the UK who has been captured and is being questioned by Russia’s forces. The man, who says his name is Andrew Hill, seems to be injured, with a bandaged left arm and head, and with blood on his right arm. The defence ministry said that he has been captured after he surrendered to Russia’s troops in the Mykolaiv region in southwestern Ukraine.

The defence ministry also confirmed their use of two “high-precision, long-range air-based weapons” in Kyiv, on the day UN Chief Antonio Guterres was visiting the city. They reported that they had destroyed the Artyom missile and space enterprise in Kyiv.

Sergei Lavrov’s comments about nuclear war
The foreign minister said that the country is not considering a war against NATO when it comes to its invasion of Ukraine. He said that this would increase the risks of a nuclear war significantly. As cited by the RIA news agency, Lavrov also said that Ukraine was responsible for stalled peace talks between the two countries.

Most senior lawmaker says Ukraine is mortgaging itself to the US
On 29 April, Russia’s parliamentarian, Vyacheslav Volodin said that by accepting the Lend-Lease loan, Zelensky was driving the country into a veritable debt trap. The speaker of the lower house of the Parliament said: "Lend-Lease is a commodity loan, and not cheap: many future generations of Ukrainian citizens will pay for all the ammunition, equipment and food that the United States will supply.”

Separatist official reports shelling by Ukraine in Donetsk
On 29 April, the separatist mayor of Donetsk, Alexey Kulemzin reported that Ukraine's army had damaged an oil depot in Donetsk by shelling. He said: "As a result of the bombardment of the Kirovsky district, a Ukrainian missile damaged a container at an oil depot… Four electric substations have been damaged, 50 residents are without electric power."

Reports of evacuation to Russia from Ukraine
On 29 April, it was reported that Russia’s National Defense Management Center’s Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev has said that a total of 19,442 people were evacuated to Russia. He also spoke about how they have been evacuated from the ‘dangerous areas in Ukraine’ without any assistance from the Ukrainian authorities.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 29 April, close to 200 Ukrainians were sent back from the US border in Mexico. It was due to the closure of the San Diego border checkpoint by the US authorities which allows the entry of refugees from Ukraine. More than 100 have reached Mexico through trans-Atlantic flights, which has become the new point for processing asylum requests.

On 29 April, upon Russia’s move to cut down the gas supplies, the EU and the US vowed to expand their exports of liquified natural gas to Europe till 2030. Previously both parties were against the exchange as it mandates the use of fossil fuels, in the reduction of greenhouse gases and conflicts with policy goals. According to the senior director for climate and energy at the National Security Council: “There’s a real potential here for Europe to signal the demand for U.S. LNG and for our U.S. LNG providers to provide that gas to them in the form of long-term contracts.”

The EU
The eurozone which grew at a diffident pace in the first three months of the year currently faces a risk of economic recession due to the Ukraine war. On 29 April, the European Union statistics agency reported that the eurozone’s GDP, a measure of goods and services had shot by 0.2 per cent higher in the last three months of 2021. As far as the US is concerned, the economy is constricted by 1.4 per cent. According to the vice president of the European Central Bank: “This surge in energy prices is reducing demand and raising production costs. The war is also weighing heavily on business and consumer confidence and has created new bottlenecks. These developments point to slower growth in the period ahead.”

Poland
On 29 April, Poland sent 240 soviet styled tanks to Ukraine which will help last for two tank brigades. Apart from this T-72 tanks were provided along with self-propelled howitzers, grad rocket launchers and other weaponry from Poland. The continued supply of heavy equipment by Poland shows the increase in pace to help out Ukraine. Other European countries, the Czech Republic, Germany, and the US have also sent their T-72 tanks, 50 Flakpanzer Gepard antiaircraft cannon tanks and USD 33 billion as military aid.

Latvia
On 29 April, Latvia’s banking sector which was known for its scandals tried to reverse its reputation using the Ukraine war. It has done so by obliging to the sanctions imposed by the EU and has limited its operations with both Belarus and Russia. According to the deputy head of anti-money-laundering at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken: “We are tracking all transactions in [Russian] rubles, it doesn’t matter which side of the transaction [they are on]. We are stopping them, and checking those customers and their counterparties.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

The UN
On 29 April, United Nations secretary-general António Guterres after his visit to Kyiv. He said: “Two rockets have exploded in Kyiv. I was shocked to be informed that two rockets exploded in the city where I am.” He assured that the UN would work towards a ceasefire and in helping Ukraine with cash assistance to reduce human suffering.

Indonesia
On 29 April, Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo who will host the G-20 cooperation meet has come forward and stated that Indonesia was ready to coordinate the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Earlier, the US had called for the expelling of Russia from the G20 forum, and now with Indonesia’s announcement on remaining fair means Russia will be invited to attend.

Brazil
The food crisis for certain commodities have risen because of the huge share Russia and Ukraine held in Agriculture. The possibility for Brazil to become the next biggest wheat producer is at peak now. According to analysts, they predict an increase of 40 per cent in the national wheat production. Previously if Brazil had planned on producing a protein rich variety of tropical wheat it would have not been profitable, but with the war in place, the farmers of Brazil are considering to switch patterns to shoot up the volumes and fill the gap of demand left out by Russia and Ukraine.

References: 
Lend-Lease and other programs in support of Ukraine prove that freedom is still able to defend itself against tyranny - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 29 April 2022
Emma Farge, “
Ukraine seeks urgent WHO meeting on impact of invasion on health,Reuters, 29 April 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy sees big risk that Russia talks will end -Interfax Ukraine,Reuters, 29 April 2022
Jonathan Saul,“
Shipping industry pushes to rescue remaining seafarers trapped in Ukraine,”  Reuters, 29 April 2022
Julian Borge, Lorenzo Tondo and Jon Henley, “
Zelenskiy urges ‘strong response’ after Russia strikes Kyiv during UN Ukraine visit,” The Guardian, 29 April 2022
Moscow confirms attack on Kyiv during UN chief’s visit,” The Guardian, 29 April 2022
Russian submarine strikes Ukraine with cruise missiles, defence ministry says,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
Russian parliament chief says Ukraine is mortgaging itself to the United States,Reuters, 29 April 2022
Russia does not consider itself at war with NATO, blames Kyiv for talks deadlock - agencies,Reuters, 29 April 2022
Oil depot in Donetsk damaged in shelling by Ukraine, mayor says,” TASS, 29 April 2022
Over 19,000 people evacuated to Russia from Ukraine, DPR, LPR in past day,TASS, 29 April 2022
Russia releases video showing British man captured in Ukraine,Reuters, 30 April 2022
Santiago Pérez, “Ukrainian Refugees Turned Back at Border in Mexico as U.S. Changes Policy,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Christopher M. Matthews and Jenny Strasburg, “As Europe Thirsts for Natural Gas, U.S., EU Signal Support for Long-Term Deals,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Ben Richardson, “U.N.’s Guterres ‘Shocked’ by Missile Strike on Kyiv During Visit to Ukraine,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Drew Hinshaw and Natalia Ojewska, “Poland Has Sent More Than 200 Tanks to Ukraine,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Drew Hinshaw and Natalia Ojewska, “Poland Supplies Ukraine With Hundreds of Soviet-Style Tanks,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Lizeth Beltran, “Indonesia Ready to Facilitate Peace Talks Between Russia, Ukraine, President Says,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Dylan Tokar, “Once a Money-Laundering Risk, Latvia Looks to Rebuild Reputation in Face of Russia Sanctions,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Paul Hannon, “Eurozone Economy Keeps Growing but Recession Risk Looms,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Samantha Pearson, “Brazil Eyes Wheat in the Heat to Tackle Ukraine Grain Shortage,” WSJ, 29 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

THE UK
Inquiry by UK’s judge suggests the Virgin Islands be ruled directly by London
On 29 April, a critical inquiry led by judge Gary Hickinbottom on the governance of the UK’s overseas territory - the British Virgin Islands, recommended dissolving its government and to be directly ruled by London. Queen Elizabeth’s representative in the UK’s overseas territory, Governor John Rankin, ordered the investigation in 2021 to probe into “corruption, misuse of office, and other significant dishonesty” in the territory’s governance. Every year, politicians and ministries misuse state revenue without following the necessary procedures. The investigation also discovered substantial dishonesty in the sale of public property and the abuse of appointment selections. The UK’s foreign secretary Liz Truss stated that the report “shows clearly that substantial legislative and constitutional change is required to restore the standards of governance that the people of the British Virgin Islands are entitled to.” (Brian Ellsworth and William James, “British Virgin Islands should be temporarily returned to UK rule, inquiry says,” Reuters, 30 April 2022)

REGIONAL
EU’s border agency chief resigns over claims of misconduct towards refugees
On 29 April, the head of the EU’s border agency Frontex, Fabrice Leggeri, resigned following reports of misconduct and complicity in illegal pushbacks of asylum seekers. Humanitarian aid groups had accused Frontex of illegally returning migrants and refugees across EU borders or turning a blind eye when national authorities carried out “pushbacks” themselves. Such allegations have centred in Greece’s land and marine borders with Turkey. The EU’s anti-fraud body, OLAF, spent over a year investigating the reports and is expected to reveal its findings soon. Other incidents of pushbacks have been documented by human rights NGOs in Poland, along the Belarusian border, and in Spain and Croatia. In light of Leggeri’s resignation and claims of human rights violations, the European Parliament’s Left group has called for a debate on Frontex and its mandate to be held next week during plenary sessions. (Alice Tidey, “Frontex chief resigns over misconduct and human rights violations probe,” Euronews, 29 April 2022)

 


29 April 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #188

War in Ukraine: Day 64

EU border agency accused of illegal pushbacks; Air traffic controller's dispute temporarily resolved 

Photo : GLEB GARANICH/REUTERS


War in Ukraine: Day 64
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address, cruise missile attacks on Kyiv, and Mariupol 

Zelenskyy on the Russian missile strikes 
On 28 April, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the two Russian cruiser missile strikes on Kyiv. He called on the people of Ukraine and mentioned that the recent strikes were a reminder not to let their guard down. He stated how Russia’s shelling of Mariupol did not stop even when the UN secretary-general visited Moscow and Kyiv. He added: “Russian missile strikes at Ukraine - Kyiv, Fastiv, Odesa, and other cities - again prove that we cannot let our guard down. We cannot think that the war is over. We still have to fight. We still have to drive the occupiers out.” He further thanked the US for their support and for approving the WWII-era lend-lease program to bring military equipment to Ukrainian forces and called for a strong response to Russia’s strikes.  

Zelenskyy on Ukraine’s estimated damages
On 28 April, Zelenskyy claimed that the total damages of war inflicted upon Ukraine totalled USD 600 billion. He added: “More than 32 million square meters of living space, more than 1,500 educational facilities and more than 350 medical facilities have been destroyed or damaged.” In addition, according to him, more than 11.5 million Ukrainians had fled their home, and about five million had gone abroad. He stated that most of the damage inflicted was on railways, roadways and bridge infrastructure. 

Russia’s cruise missile attacks on Kyiv
On 28 April, following a missile strike on the western part of Kyiv, the citizens said they were still in shock. A person inside the building mentioned: “We heard the first strike. And then a second missile hit the building. We don’t know if people died.” The attack occurred as the UN secretary-general was visiting Kyiv. 

Russian soldiers accused of human rights abuses in Bucha 
On 28 April, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Venediktova mentioned that they were able to identify and name 10 Russian soldiers that were allegedly involved in human rights abuses at Bucha. The ICC has been ramping up its investigation of alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine. 

On the same day, she mentioned that Russia had handed over 12 civilians and 33 soldiers. However, she did not mention how many Russians were involved in the exchange. 

Deported Ukrainians in Russia mistreated
On 28 April, a red cross volunteer Volodymyr Khropun shared how Russians were detaining Ukrainians and torturing them in occupied regions. Volodymyr said: “We were beaten with rifles, punched, and kicked. They blindfolded me and tied my hands with duct tape. They used Tasers and kept asking for information about the military.” 

FM Kuleba on missile strikes in Kyiv
On 28 April, Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba called the strikes by Russia on Kyiv an act of heinous barbarism. He added: “Russia [struck] Kyiv with cruise missiles right when UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and Bulgarian PM Kiril Petkov visited our capital. By this heinous act of barbarism, Russia demonstrates once again its attitude towards Ukraine, Europe and the world.” 

Bomb strikes on Azovstal plant
On 28 April, a local official mentioned that the Russian forces were shelling the Azovstal steelworks as hundreds of fighters and civilians are still believed to be trapped. Chief of the Mariupol patrol police said: “First, there was a massive airstrike using seven Tu-22M3 aircraft. Then there were more than 50 airstrikes. Apparently, either the Su-25s worked, or the Su-24s.”

Concerning the exhibits in the museums of Mariupol
On 28 April, the Mariupol city council claimed that Russian forces removed more than 2,000 unique exhibits in museums. The council stated: “Mariupol City Council is preparing materials for law enforcement agencies to initiate criminal proceedings and appeal to Interpol.”

Presidential advisor thanks Germany
On 28 April, Ukraine’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak thanked Germany for providing “heavy weapons and complex [weapons] systems”. This comes as the Bundestag passed a vote to shift Germany’s policy on sending heavy equipment to Ukraine. The petition read: “Alongside the broad economic isolation and decoupling of Russia from international markets, the most important and effective means to stop the Russian invasion is to intensify and speed up the delivery of effective weapons and complex systems including heavy arms.” 

Ukraine’s parliamentary energy committee reassures the country
On 28 April, Ukraine’s parliamentary energy committee head Andriy Herus assured the country that it had enough gas and electricity for its needs. He added: “Today, if we talk about gas volumes, we have enough. We consume less gas than is produced and even Today gas is pumped into underground storage facilities.” 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
 

Protests in Russia against the withdrawal of Western brands
On 28 April, mysterious art installations were set up in St Petersburg, which read: “we will replace”. The word ZAMESTIM was made up of letters, and each first letter was for an international brand that suspended operations in Russia. BBC stated: “Z is for Zara. A is for Adidas. M means McDonald’s…” This comes as hundreds of international companies had pulled out of Russia in protest of Moscow’s invasion of Kyiv. 

Putin threatens the West
On 28 April, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin warned against any foreign intervention in Ukraine. He mentioned that if any country intervened in Ukraine, they would face a lightning-fast response. He further said: “We have all the tools no one can boast of... we will use them if necessary...in what is seen as a reference to ballistic missiles and nuclear arms.”

Blasts in Russian city near Ukraine
On 28 April, Russian authorities said two blasts were heard in the Russian city of Belgorod near the border with Ukraine. Russia has been reporting a series of attacks lately by Ukrainian forces near Belgorod and other southern regions that border Ukraine. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the Ukrainians were testing their patience. 

Russia accuses OSCE of mishandling information
On 28 April, authorities in Russia accused the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) of handing over the information of Russian forces to the West and Ukrainian intelligence. OSCE has been monitoring its missions since 2014 in eastern Ukraine, where Russian backed separatists have been fighting Ukraine’s army. 

Russia alleges cyber provocation by Ukraine, the US, NATO 
On 28 April, Zakharova said Moscow had evidence that mentioned how the Kyiv regime was preparing major cyber provocations against Russia. She said: “The Kiev regime, the US and the West, including NATO and EU institutions, collectively have started preparations for a major cyber provocation. We have been getting the evidence.” Earlier, Ukraine’s vice prime minister said that “the world’s first cyber army composed of around 300,000 technicians has been formed,” in Ukraine. 

Zakharova on the West encouraging Kyiv to attack Russia
On 28 April, foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the US of pushing Kyiv to attack Russia using NATO weapons. Zakharova mentioned: “We have already commented the other day on statements by British Deputy Defense Minister [James] Heappey about okaying Ukraine’s strikes on Russian military targets.” She further stated that the Ukrainian military’s criminal activities would be held accountable, and Ukraine’s strikes would lead to a harsh response from Russia.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 28 April, the US Justice Department brought focus on “sanction evasion and export control violations” in its white-collar enforcement program. According to deputy attorney general Lisa Monaco: “The way that multinational companies have to think about how these sanctions regimes are going to be affecting their businesses is critically important, and something we should be having conversations about.” Through this, the acts of bribery and payments by the MNCs to foreign officials will be banned and prohibited.

On 28 April, a research team from Microsoft Corp found that close to six hacker groups from Russia had been involved in hundreds of cyberattacks in malfunctioning of computers in Ukraine. When tracking the attacks, it saw that many kinetic military manoeuvres had been used to disrupt the operations and along with cyber espionage. According to Microsoft’s vice president of customer security and trust: “The attacks have not only degraded the systems of institutions in Ukraine but have also sought to disrupt people’s access to reliable information and critical life services.”

NATO
On 28 April, Finland and Sweden approached NATO for membership, secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO will be open to welcoming both countries into joining the alliance. He said: “Finland and Sweden are our closest partners, they are strong, mature democracies, EU members, and we have worked with Finland and Sweden for many, many years.” Apart from this he also remarked that both countries met the standards of NATO armed forces and the alliances hoped to work together to build forces and enhance military exercise.

Poland and Bulgaria
On 28 April, on Russia’s move to halt the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, Europe accused Russia, of calling it to blackmail. As a result, the prices of natural gas increased across Europe.
Bulgaria’s prime minister, Kiril Petkov on his visit to Kyiv discussed on energy exports and promised to import electricity into Bulgaria and the Balkans. He also vowed to supply natural gas through a “trans-Balkan pipeline.”

Germany
On 28 April, Germany’s parliament officially agreed to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons to fight against Russia. The announcement comes after approval from the conservatives, and a smaller far-Right Alternative. Previously the government had announced a U-turn policy marking the supply of modified tanks to Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

MNCs
One of the renowned France automakers, Renault SA announced to transfer of 68 per cent of Russia’s share to a NAMI which is a state-owned automotive company. The plan has been set in a way for the France car company with an option to buy back the share after five to six years. The entity was observed to be continuing its operations earlier in Russia and had attempted to reform its supply chain to meet the gaps in missing parts for manufacturing due to sanctions. Once the attempts failed, leading to the depletion of cash reserves of the company, the decision was made.

On 28 April, agricultural companies such as Archer Daniels Midland Co., Bunge Ltd. BG and Cargill Inc. have largely benefitted due to the Ukraine War. The gain comes due to sustaining demand for global foods despite the rising prices. The supply of wheat, corn, livestock feed, and vegetable oils has narrowed down due to the war and bad weather conditions in South America. Thereby the above companies which deal with the exchange of the agricultural commodities have benefitted from the crop-supply crunch. According to chief executive Greg Heckman: “These market disruptions are rerouting many traditional trade flows and contributing to crop price inflation. Industry margins spiked globally due to the combination of continued strong demand and an even tighter supply outlook.”

The UN
On 28 April, secretary-general of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres post the visit to Moscow, met president Zelenskyy. After the meet, Guterres observed Bucha, where mass graves were found and the area has come under the target of the war-crime investigation. During his visit, he said: “I appeal to the Russian Federation to accept to cooperate with the International Criminal Court. But when we talk about war crimes, we cannot forget that the worst of crimes is war itself.” Apart from his visit to Bucha, during the meeting with president, he expressed his deep concerns about the view of damaged buildings and on families that were killed in the war.

The UN high commissioner reported that so far 5,372,854 people had left Ukraine, out of which three million have crowded into Poland. This has resulted in 200,000 children registering for Poland’s public school system since the Ukraine war.

References: 
Zelenskiy says Russian missile strike requires 'strong response’,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
Ukraine’s prosecutor general has named 10 Russian soldiers allegedly involved in human rights abuses during the month-long occupation of Bucha, near the Ukrainian capital Kyiv,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022
Yogita Limaye, “War in Ukraine: Ukrainians deported to Russia beaten and mistreated,” BBC Live, 28 April 2022 
Ukraine’s foreign minister has responded to the strikes in Kyiv, calling the attack a heinous act of barbarism,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
Emma Graham-Harrison, “Russia hits Kyiv with two cruise missiles,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
More information is trickling out about two large explosions heard in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv earlier,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
"Massive bombing strike’ on Azovstal plant, says Mariupol official,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
The Mariupol city council has posted on Telegram to claim that more than 2,000 unique exhibits from the museums of Mariupol have been removed by Russian forces,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, has thanked Germany after lawmakers voted overwhelmingly in favour of providing Kyiv with “heavy weapons and complex [weapons] systems,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
The head of Ukrainian parliament’s energy committee has attempted to reassure the country that energy supplies are secure in the short term,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022
"Russia considers gas and trade as a weapon, Zelenskiy says,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022
War has cost Ukraine $600bn, Zelenskiy says,” The Guardian Live, 28 April 2022 
Ukraine war: Explosions rock Kyiv after UN chief meeting, Guterres safe,” Euronews, 28 April 2022
Steve Rosenberg, “Support, silence and protest: Russians’ reactions to Ukraine offensive,” BBC Live, 28 April 2022 
Yaroslav Lukov, “Ukraine war: Putin warns against foreign intervention,” BBC Live, 28 April 2022
Two powerful blasts heard in Russian city near Ukraine border - witnesses,” Reuters, 28 April 2022 

Guy Faulconbridge, “Russia warns West: Don't test our patience,” Reuters, 28 April 2022 
Russia accuses OSCE of handing information to Western intelligence,” Reuters, 28 April 2022
Ukraine, US, NATO preparing major cyber provocation, Russia says,” TASS, 28 April 2022 
West encouraging Kiev to attack Russia with NATO-supplied weapons, says diplomat,” TASS, 28 April 2022 
Press review: Ruble set for gold peg and EU braces as Russia freezes gas to Eastern Europe,” TASS, 28 April 2022 
OSCE chairman-in-office, secretary general announce SMM to Ukraine to close soon,” TASS, 28 April 2022
Renault in Talks to Sell Russia Business for One Ruble,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Grain Traders’ Profits Rise as Ukraine War Tightens Global Food Supply,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Hackers Linked to Russia Launched Hundreds of Cyberattacks in Ukraine, Microsoft Says,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Sanctions Turn Into New Priority for Justice Department,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Joanna Sugden and James Marson, “U.N. Chief in Ukraine to Meet Zelensky,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Joanna Sugden, “More Than Three Million Ukrainian Refugees Crossed Into Poland, Official Says,” WSJ, 28 April 2022

James Graff , “U.N. Chief Visits Destroyed Ukrainian Towns Formerly Held by Russian Forces,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Bojan Pancevski, “German Parliament Approves Arms Shipments to Ukraine,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Sune Engel Rasmussen, “NATO Chief Says Sweden, Finland Welcome in Alliance,” WSJ, 28 April 2022
Peter Saidel, “Bulgarian Leader Discusses Energy Supply With Zelensky During Kyiv Visit,” WSJ, 28 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

POLAND
Air traffic controllers dispute with the government temporarily resolved 
On 28 April, air traffic controllers reached an agreement with the government in a dispute over pay and conditions at work. The air traffic controllers’ notice period has been extended until 10 July under the agreement's provisions, while the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA) will begin an organisational audit and restructuring. The parties will continue to debate over salary and work conditions. Travel disruption was anticipated to begin on 01 May, the day following the end of a notice period for air traffic controllers who earlier had chosen to resign rather than accept new regulations. The new regulation was an effect of a decree passed by the government to limit the number of flights flying into Warsaw’s two airports. (“Poland dodges flight chaos as controllers reach interim deal,” Reuters, 28 April 2022)

REGIONAL
EU’s border agency accused of illegal pushbacks of asylum seekers
On 28 April, a new investigation revealed that the EU’s border and coast guard agency- Frontex, was involved in the illegal pushback of 957 asylum seekers in the Aegean Sea. The investigation was jointly led by Lighthouse Reports, Der Spiegel, SRF, Republik, and Le Monde. The agency’s internal incident report database, Jora, revealed to have logged observations of asylum seeker pushbacks in the Aegean Sea between March 2020 and September 2021. Authorities classified these incidents as “prevention of departure.” This is defined in the  Frontex standards as an occurrence in which migrants from non-European countries are intercepted in its territorial seas and are returned to their point of origin. (Rhal Ssan, “Investigation claims Frontex involved in Aegean sea migrant pushbacks,” Euronews, 28 April 2022)

Russia’s response to the EU sanction troubles Europe
On 28 April, European Commission warned Russian gas buyers to adhere to sanctions if the payment method was converted into roubles. Recently, Gazprom announced to cut the gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, post their rejection to pay back in roubles. Russia issued a statement asking its exporters to pay in roubles back for the gas bought. Where buyers have to deposit into an account at Gazprombank which then converts Dollars or Euros into Roubles and then proceedings are placed in another account of the buyer which makes it possible for the payment in Russian currency. This system will break some of the EU  sanctions imposed on Russia.  The EU countries demanded clearer information from the officials on this issue. (Kate Abnett and Francesco Guarascio, “Europe struggles for clarity on Russia's roubles-for-gas scheme,” Reuters, 28 April 2022)

Bundestag speaker attended Holocaust memorial service in Israel
On 28 April, German Bundestag president Barbel Bas took part in Israel's Holocaust memorial ceremony. She is the first German high official to attend the ceremony. The Nazis had killed 6 million Jews during the Holocaust. Bas visited the site of commemoration and called for Germany to counter rising anti-Semitism in the world. She visited Knesset and Yad Vashem memorials. She and officials from Israel lit candles to honour the dead. Naftali Bennett addressed Yad Vashem stating that nothing that is happening right now should be compared to Holocaust. (“German representatives attend Israel's Holocaust commemoration,” Deutsche Welle, 28 April 2022)


28 April 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #187

War in Ukraine: Day 63

Italian children can now include surnames of both their parents; Negative impacts of the Russian energy embargo on Germany; French Internet network vandalised

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 63
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee 

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 27 April, in his daily address, president Zelenskyy said that he presented a proposal to president Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, and they has agreed to remove all duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports for a year. He said: “Russia is trying to provoke a global price crisis. To start chaos in all basic markets and especially in the food market. Ukrainian exports will help stabilize markets. So it is beneficial not only for us but also for all Europeans. For residents of all countries that can be affected by Russia's destructive ambitions.” He mentioned that he had spoken with the president of Indonesia about food security. According to Zelenskyy, president Widodo has extended an invitation to him to attend the G20 meeting to be held later this year. He also said that he had talked to the prime minister of Italy and thanked him for their commitment to investigate the crimes committed by Russia.

Ukraine undergoes a process of derussification
On 27 April, the city council said that it had identified 467 locations that would be renamed to avoid triggering memories of Russian aggression in the nation. This came after a huge monument signifying friendship between Russia and Ukraine was dismantled on 26 April. The list includes a central square named after Leo Tolstoy, and another street named after Lake Baikal, in Russia. Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, suggested that after the war was over, he would introduce a bill to rename all Russia-affiliated names and said: "Even without these names, there will be too many scars that will remind us for a long time about what kind of neighbour is beyond our eastern and northern borders,"

Russian forces stop a pro-Ukraine rally
On 27 April, the prosecutor general of Ukraine said that Russia had used tear gas and stun grenades to stop a pro-Ukraine rally in Kherson. The city has been occupied by Russian forces and was the first one to fall, and it reportedly has appointed its own mayor. The rally received a mark of appreciation from president Zelenskyy, who thanked everyone who has not yet given up.

Russia captures several eastern villages
On 27 April, it was reported that in an effort to further consolidate their attack on Donbas, Russian forces have been successful in capturing several villages in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s defence ministry reported that Velyka, Komyshuvakha and Zavody, in the north-eastern Kharkiv region, Zarichne and Novotoshkivske in Donetsk saw Russian forces push Ukriane’s troops out.

Odesa’s bridges attacked
Russia struck a strategically important bridge in the Odesa region, with two missiles. Ukraine says that this will be affecting their export plans through Danube ports. This bridge links the mouth of the Danube river with Odesa and was being considered by Kyiv as one of the ways to carry on exports given that their Black Sea ports are blocked.

Mariupol offensive continues
On 27 April, it was reported that the steelworks in Mariupol was still under attack, and there had been no let-up in airstrikes in the region. This is in the context of UN secretary-general Guterres’s talks with Putin about establishing humanitarian corridors in the region. On the Telegram messaging app, Petro Andryushchenko, an aide to the city mayor said: “Air attacks on Azovstal are not subsiding. No ceasefire, but attempts to storm again and again. Despite the statements (by Putin)... At the same time, street fighting continues again in the sector between the Azovstal plant’s management (buildings) to the street.”

Attacks in western Ukraine
While the offensive in the eastern part of the country in the Donbas region continues with full gusto, Russian forces have started focusing that aggression on the Western parts of the country as well. This may be an effort to destabilise the national economy as well as the connectivity roots like the railway network and bridges and fuel depots.

The Moscow view
Putin's address
On 27 April, president Putin said that the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia, at the request of Ukraine, by several countries, were “rude’ and “clumsy”. In an address to the parliament, Putin said that countries trying to interfere in the  Ukraine war should expect a 'lightning-fast' response. He said: “All the tasks of the special military operation we are conducting in the Donbas and Ukraine, launched on 24 February, will be unconditionally fulfilled.”

Russia’s defence ministry 
On 27 April, Russia’s defence ministry reported that their missiles have hit an arms depot in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, which especially stored weapons received from the United States and European countries. Reportedly, 59 Ukrainian military targets had been hit overnight.

Tensions increase in Moldova
On 27 April, Transdniestria reported that explosions had damaged two radio masts and that one of their military units have also been attacked.  The offensive has been escalating in the Transdniestria region of Moldova which Ukraine had accused Russia of dragging into the war. However,  the self-styled president of Transdniestria, Vadim Krasnoselsky blamed Ukraine and said: “The traces of these attacks lead to Ukraine…I  assume that those who organised this attack have the purpose of dragging Transdniestria into the conflict."

Russia bans British parliamentarians
On 27 April, 287 parliamentarians from the UK would be banned from entering the country. They have been accused of fuelling Russophobic hysteria in Britain. The foreign ministry issued a statement that said: "These persons... took the most active part in the establishment of anti-Russian sanctions instruments in London, and contribute to the groundless whipping up of Russophobic hysteria in the UK."

Blasts in South Russia
On 27 April, blasts were heard in the south of the country and a fire broke out at an ammunition depot. Blasts were also heard in Kursk and in Voronezh. These incidents follow the reports of a major fire at a Russian oil storage facility in Bryansk, and an attack on a fuel depot in Belgorod. But, Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak without directly admitting to the offensive said: "If you (Russians) decide to massively attack another country, massively kill everyone there, massively crush peaceful people with tanks, and use warehouses in your regions to enable the killings, then sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid.” 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
The US
On 27 April, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken mentioned to Congress about the US plans to open its embassy in Kyiv. However, he cautioned the people going back, saying the Russians were “booby-trapping things like peoples’ washing machines and toys so that when people are able to return home and go about their lives, they’re killed or injured”. 

On the same day, the US announced to provide USD 670 million in food assistance to combat food insecurity across the globe. The Guardian reported: “The agencies are allocating $282m in US food commodities to six countries in the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen. Another $388m will go toward logistics, including transportation and shipping.” This comes as a pandemic, the war in Ukraine and a severe drought in the eastern regions of Africa had caused food shortages.

The UK
On 27 April, UK’s foreign secretary Liz Truss mentioned that as part of the West’s long term support to Ukraine, the western powers should provide warplanes to Kyiv. She added: “must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support.” She further stated that NATO had only provided lighter weaponry amid fears of escalation. Truss said: “If Putin succeeds, there will be untold further misery across Europe and terrible consequences across the globe. We would never feel safe again.” She also called on the West to overhaul its approach to international security.  

On the same day, Truss mentioned how the West needed to straighten their collective defence to deter another invasion. She said the G7 group of leading nations should act as an “economic NATO” and that they should be prepared to open their doors to countries such as Finland and Sweden as they plan on joining NATO. Truss added: “We need a global Nato…By that, I don’t mean extending the membership to those from other regions. I mean that Nato must have a global outlook, ready to tackle global threats.”

Also, on 27 April, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson responded to Russia sanctioning members of the house of commons. He said: “Within the last hour or so, it’s been reported that 287 members of this House have been sanctioned by the Russian state,” he called it “a badge of honour.” 

Poland
On 27 April, a former head of Poland’s army Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak accused Jhonson of “tempting evil” as the UK trained Ukrainian soldiers in Poland with anti-aircraft missiles. Furthermore, the individual accused Jhonson of revealing the military secrets of Poland as this could escalate tensions with Russia. Skrzypczak said: “The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements, he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers.”  

On the same day, Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawieck accused Russia of directly attacking the country by cutting its gas supplies. Morawieck said Russia was pushing the boundaries of its “gas imperialism” after carrying out murderous attacks on Ukraine.

Belarus
On 27 April, the lower house of parliament approved a law that made attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty. This comes as activists in the country were sabotaging parts of the railway network to cause hindrances for Russia to deploy its forces into Ukraine. House speaker Vladimir Andreychenko said: “Destructive forces are continuing terrorist extremist activity by trying to rock the situation in Belarus, provoking domestic instability and conflicts.” 

Bulgaria
On 27 April, Bulgaria’s energy minister mentioned that the country was prepared to provide alternative sources of energy to the country. This comes as Bulgaria stated that it would not use Gazprom’s new payment system. He added: “The two-stage payment procedure proposed by Russia poses significant risks. In practice, we would lose control over our money when paying in US dollars – since the Russian bank is responsible for converting into rubles, there is no clarity about the exchange rate.” 

Moldova
On 27 April, Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria mentioned that Ukraine had launched drone attacks and fired shots on the village of Kolbasna, Rybnitsa region. The statement said: “On the morning of 27 April, at 8.45 am, shots were fired from the Ukrainian side in the direction of the Pridnestrovian settlement of Kolbasna.” 

The EU
On 27 April, the European Commission said it was proposing to suspend the import duties on all Ukrainian products to help the country economically. The proposal was for a one-year suspension to support the country as it continues to defend itself against Russia. The bloc’s economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said: “It will help alleviate the difficult situation of Ukrainian producers and exporters in the face of Russia’s military invasion.”

On the same day, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen condemned Russia for blackmailing Europe by cutting off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. She said: “The announcement by Gazprom that it is unilaterally stopping delivery of gas to customers in Europe is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as an instrument of blackmail.” She further said that the EU was prepared for this scenario but what Russia did was unjustified and unacceptable. 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Australia 
On 27 April, Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison blamed the war in Ukraine and the pandemic for supply chain distortions that caused inflation. His comments come as Australia faces a record rise in living costs which could hinder his re-election possibilities. 

Kazakhstan
On 27 April, Kazakhstan said it might declare a prominent Russian TV host persona non grata for his comments on the country. The host had mentioned: “Central Asian nations could meet the same fate as Ukraine if they did not side decisively with Russia.” Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry spokesperson Aibek Smadiyarov stated that the reporters comments were insulting and lacked any objectivity.  

The UN
On 27 April, the UN tourism body announced that it had suspended Russia’s membership. However, Moscow claimed that it had left the organisation. UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The message is clear: Actions will always have consequences. Peace is a fundamental human right. Guaranteed to all. Without exception.”  

On the same day, Human rights lawyer Amal Clooney urged the UN to focus on international justice for war crimes in Ukraine. He added: “Ukraine is, today, a slaughterhouse. Right in the heart of Europe.” He stated that the UN should do something about the evidence collected instead of keeping it in storage. 

Also, on 27 April, UN secretary-general António Guterres said he had reached Kyiv. Guterres said: “the sooner this war ends, the better – for the sake of Ukraine, Russia, and the world.” His visit comes a day after visiting Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. 

Microsoft 
On 27 April, the company disclosed the onslaught of Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine and how Russia’s military launched attacks online and ran online propaganda campaigns. Microsoft, in its report, claimed that Russia’s onslaught of cyber-attacks began a year prior to its military invasion.  

References:
Russia is trying to provoke a global price crisis but Ukrainian exports will help stabilize markets - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 27 April 2022
Kyiv pulls down Soviet-era monument symbolising Russian-Ukrainian friendship,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Ukraine president says Indonesian leader invited him to G20 summit,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Russia attacks infrastructure in western Ukraine to slow supply lines,The Guardian, 27 April 2022
John Henley, “Russian forces capture villages in push into eastern Ukraine,” The Guardian, 27 April 2022
Pavel Polityuk, “Russian attacks on key bridge may affect Ukraine's grain export plans,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Russian forces pummel Ukrainian fighters holed up in Mariupol steel plant - mayoral aide,Reuters, 27 April 2022
Max Hunder, “What's in a name? Ukraine plans to rename streets linked to Russia,” Reuters, 28 April 2022
Putin warns of ‘lightning fast’ retaliation against interference in Ukraine – video,” The Guardian, 27 April 2022
Moscow bans 287 UK lawmakers from Russia, drawing British sarcasm,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Russia reports blasts in south that Ukraine calls payback for invasion,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Russia says it hit U.S., European weapons in a missile strike in Ukraine,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Alexander Tanas, “Tensions surge after breakaway Moldovan region reports attacks; Kyiv blames Russia,”  Reuters, 27 April 2022
Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets, “Russian forces disperse pro-Ukraine rally, tighten control in occupied Kherson,” Reuters, 28 April 2022 
Ukraine: West should provide warplanes, says Liz Truss,” BBC Live, 27 April 2022 
"Inaction would be the 'greatest provocation', Truss says,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
West must overhaul approach to international security: UK foreign secretary,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, has told members of the House of Commons who have reportedly been sanctioned by Russia to regard it as “a badge of honour,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022
US secretary of state Antony Blinken told Congress today that the US is working on reopening its embassy in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
The US government is providing $670m in food assistance to combat food insecurity due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
Dan Sabbagh, “A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil”,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
Polish PM accuses Russia of ‘direct attack’ by cutting gas supplies,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
The European Commission has proposed suspending import duties on all Ukrainian products to help the country’s economy during the war with Russia,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
"Belarus has moved to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
Transnistria's internal ministry claims drones launched and shots fired from Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
Daniel Boffey, “Ursula von der Leyen: using gas as instrument of blackmail 'unjustified and unacceptable,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022  
Bulgaria's energy minister: we have enough energy for 'sufficiently foreseeable period,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
Kazakhstan may declare a prominent Russian television host persona non grata,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, has arrived in Ukraine after meeting with the Russian president,” The Guardian Live, 27 April 2022 
Michelle Nichols, “At U.N., Amal Clooney pushes for Ukraine war crimes justice,” Reuters, 27 April 2022 
UN tourism body suspends Russia's membership, Moscow says it quits,” Reuters, 27 April 2022
Inflation shock, rate rise risk jolt Australia PM's election campaign,” Reuters, 27 April 2022 
Raphael Satter, Christopher Bing and James Pearson, “Microsoft discloses onslaught of Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine,” Reuters, 27 April 2022  


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Act of vandalism suspected in nationwide internet outages
On 27 April, there were incidents of vandalism in France due to internet outages. French police are investigating the case that rattled the country's telecommunication network. The attack had impacted many regions of France including Paris, Internet cables were cut leading to network issues. The fibre cable optic network was attacked at 0100 GMT on Wednesday even affecting the landlines. This was suspected to be an act of vandalism or sabotage. The French government with the help of service providers is trying to restore the network. (Mathieu Rosemain, “French police to investigate vandalism behind internet outage,” Reuters, 28 April 2022)

Macron visits Cergy to empathize with left-wing voters 
On 27 April, president Emmanuel Macron visited a Socialist-held working-class suburb of Paris to attract left-wing voters ahead of the June parliamentary elections. The move comes following the accusations Macron faced for being an elitist and unempathetic to the problems of the common people. Macron walked through a food market in Cergy, shaking hands, conversing with young people, and posing for photographs with them. Macron said: "I want to give a message of respect and consideration to these areas that are among the poorest in the country right from the start of my new mandate." (Michel Rose, “Macron, with eye on parliamentary vote, visits left-leaning Paris suburb,” Reuters, 27 April 2022)

GERMANY
Russian energy embargo to affect Germany negatively
On 27 April, the German economy was forecasted to go down into recession if the energy imports from Russia were embargoed or blocked. The government's growth rate forecast for 2022 has been reduced to 2.2 per cent from the 3.6 per cent prediction in January due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine war. The inflation in Europe's largest economy was predicted to reach 6.1 per cent in 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war has majorly affected the rapidly increasing price of energy. After the recent halting of gas exports from Russia to Poland and Bulgaria, Germany has been cautious as it will lose a significant amount of energy supply in the country. German dependency on Russian energy decreased from 55 per cent to 35 per cent after Germany decided to support Ukraine. (“Germany would go into recession with Russian energy embargo - minister,” Reuters, 28 April 2022)

ITALY
Children can now include the surnames of both the parents
On 27 April, the Constitutional Court of Italy ruled that infants should be given both parents' surnames, overturning the traditional practices of naming all newborns after their fathers. The court stated that the current practice is "discriminatory and harmful" to the child's identity. The child's parents may also mutually agree to designate only one of their surnames to the child. The court called on the parliament to change the law regarding this. The landmark decision stems from a case brought by a family with three children in Potenza, southern Basilicata province. The first two children were given the mother's surname, but the third was given the father's surname by default because he was born after his parent's marriage. The parents objected because they wanted the boy to have the same surname as his two sisters, which was the mother's surname. (“Doubling up: Italian children should get both parents' surnames, court says,” Reuters, 27 April 2022)


27 April 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #186

War in Ukraine: Day 62

Photo : REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach


War in Ukraine: Day 62
By Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address, shelling in Kharkiv, and Mariupol

Zelenskyy’s address
On 26 April president Zelenskyy spoke remembered the anniversary of the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl. He also mentioned that in spite of the significance of the date Russia’s forces continued their attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with a targeted motive. He said: “Instead, today they launched three missiles against Ukraine so that they flew directly over the blocks of our nuclear power plants. Over three nuclear power plants at once. Over Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi and South-Ukrainian NPPs. What is it? Are they threatening? Are they targeting? There are no words…”

Ukraine’s foreign ministry
On 26 April, the foreign ministry said that they were concerned about how the situation in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transdniestria. This Russia backed region of Moldova has witnessed several explosions. They issued a statement that said that these actions by Russia coincided with their statement about their plans to occupy the entire south of Ukraine and create a corridor to the Transdniestria region.

Ukraine’s war crime charges against Russians
On 26 April, Ukraine’s prosecutor general’s office said that they were preparing to bring war crimes charges against at least seven Russian military personnel. Among them are also three pilots suspected of bombing civilian settlements in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. They said that the two the other individuals include two rocket launcher operators, who allegedly shelled settlements in the Kharkiv region and two army servicemen who are suspected of murdering a Kharkiv resident and raping his wife. The prosecutor's office also said that these individuals have been notified of the investigations and some were being held captive, while for others charges were being prepared in absentia.

Shelling in Kharkiv continues
On 26 April, the Kharkiv region’s governor, Oleh Synegubov gave an update on the casualties caused by Russian shelling on 25 April. He said four people had died, and nine were wounded as a result of it.

Zaporizhzhia’s farmers don bulletproof vests
On 26 April, it was reported that the farmers in Zaporizhzhia have resorted to wearing body armours to plough their fields. Energoatom, Ukraine's state-run atomic energy company reported that Russian missiles flew over the nuclear power plant at a low altitude.

Ukraine accuses Russia of further shelling in Mariupol
On 26 April, Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, said that the attacks on Mariupol have been increased further, which made the evacuation of civilians from the area impossible. This is in the context of how UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres also urged Putin to allow the humanitarian corridors in the area. Andryushchenko also mentioned that there had been 35 airstrikes against the Azovstal plant. One of the strikes caused a fire to break out in a workshop where civilians were hiding.

The Moscow View
Putin’s meeting with Antonio Guterres
On 26 April, president Putin met with UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and spoke about the Minsk Agreement and how historically that had been signed for a peaceful settlement regarding the Donbas region. He spoke about the coup d’etat performed in Ukraine in 2014 and said how agreements had been signed after a popular referendum.

He said: “This was the attempt of peaceful settlement of the situation in Donbas. However, to our regret, people living there found themselves in blockade for eight years - and Kyiv authorities publicly announced that they had organized a blockade of this territory, dared to announce that this was the blockade, although initially had renounced that, and continued military pressure.”

Russia’s foreign ministry’s comments
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Kyiv’s proposal to conduct talks with Russia about Mariupol was merely “theatrical” in nature. He also mentioned how the proposal for conducting the talk had been sent from the Russian side a long time back, and how Ukraine should be more prompt in replying. He said: “Ukrainians do like to stage things so they apparently wanted to stage one more heart-breaking scene." 

On 26 April, Lavrov also met with UN secretary-general Guterres. After the conference, he said that the war was at too early a stage to talk about mediators. In a news conference on Tuesday. However, he mentioned that they were in favour of a ‘negotiated solution’ but it was Ukraine’s representatives including president Zelenskyy who seemed to be disinterested in conducting bilateral talks.

Moreover, Lavrov also spoke about NATO’s interference in the war, and said that the US-led organisation has been fighting a “proxy war.” He said: “NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.”

State Duma Speaker wants to hold Zelenskyy accountable
On 26 April, the state Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on his Telegram account about how Ukraine has become a terrorist state as they have resolved to the killing of Russian terrorists. He mentioned that President Zelenskyy should be held accountable for the same, the ad said: "Having unleashed a war against its own people, Kiev is now targeting civilians from other countries.”

Russia’s talks with Turkey’s president
On 26 April, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin had spoken with Recep Tayyip Erdogan about Ukraine. Reportedly, Erdogan had been expecting to talk about achieving a ceasefire and eventual peace. It was said that the details of the conversion will be released later. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 26 April, the US defense secretary Llyod Austin said that he hoped to see Russia losing to Ukraine, and for Ukraine to win it only needed the right support. The US further announced to grant USD 713 million as military aid to Ukraine along with other European countries. According to Austin: “Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

In the meeting with the NATO defense ministers, US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin appreciated the enduring and skilled stance of Ukraine forces against Russia’s attacks. He also pointed out that Russia was carrying out “indefensible atrocities.”

NATO and the EU
On 26 April, defence ministers of NATO and the EU met in Germany to discuss increasing the military aid to Ukraine. The meeting was chaired by US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, and ahead of the meeting Germany pledged to send anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine. Till now NATO and its members have been resistant to providing offensive weapons as they fears it might lead to the use of nuclear-armed weapons.

Poland
Poland’s state gas company PGNiG reported that Russia had stopped supplying natural gas. Gazprom which is a major supplier to Poland comprises of 60 per cent share, is confirmed to have suspended providing stocks. The issue is not expected to cause an immediate effect on Poland as it has 70 per cent underground storage and the current demand in the summer is reduced.

Germany
On 26 April, the government of Germany announced to deliver the heavy range weapons for the first time to Ukraine. This will include, Germany’s twin-cannon system, 100 marder infantry vehicles and 50 Gepard Flakpanzer anti-aircraft tanks

Moldova
On 26 April, Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu held a meeting between the Supreme Security council to discuss on the blasts that occurred in Transnistria. Two explosions were observed to have attacked with “rocket-propelled grenades.” Post the fall of the Soviet, Transnistria has remained independent but has not gained any international recognition.

As reported in RIA, Transnistria had found three infiltrators from Ukraine on the recent grenade attack in security headquarters. It named the act as “terrorist act,” and observed it as a way to instigate the country to launch war in the Ukraine conflict. On the same, Sandu said: “internal differences between various groups in Transnistria that have an interest in destabilising the situation.”

The Nordic countries
On 26 April, Finland and Sweden are found to be preparing for a common announcement of their will to join NATO. Despite Russia’s nuclear warning in the Baltic, questions have arisen with the increasing Russia offensive, should Finland and Sweden join NATO. Finland’s foreign minister Pekka Haavisto, has denied commenting on the announcement but said that he would support the idea of both Nordic countries joining together. 

The UK
On 26 April, the UK government announced to remove all the tariffs on all goods and imposed a ban on exports of technological products of Russia. The decision came as a response to Ukraine President’s demand to support the economy. UK's international trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan said: “We stand unwaveringly with Ukraine in this ongoing fight and will work to ensure Ukraine survives and thrives as a free and sovereign nation.” Apart from the announcement, the UK also announced to close down the loopholes to make sure Russia does buy any commodity from the UK.

The UK Ministry of Defense reported on the ground development that the Kreminna city located in Luhansk had fallen and was taken under control by Russia. It also said that Russia was trying to encircle Ukraine’s positions in the east and observed that Ukraine’s forces were prepared in defence in Zaporizhzhia waiting for Russia’s attacks.

On 26 April, UK’s Armed Forces minister James Heappey said that it was clearly legal for Ukraine to target the supply chains of Russia. He said: “Firstly, it's Ukrainians that take the targeting decision, not the people who manufacture or export the kit in the first place. And secondly, it is entirely legitimate to go after targets in the depth of your opponents to disrupt their logistics and supply line.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

The UN

On 26 April, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres is expected to meet president Putin to discuss on Mariupol, and Azovstal steelworks. He first began talking to Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov pointing out the need to bring the war to end. Calling for a ceasefire “as soon as possible,” he also discussed on establishing humanitarian corridors in Mariupol. On the corridors he said: “ready to fully mobilise its human and logistical resources.” Post the discussion with the Russia’s diplomats, he remarked that it was a “frank discussion.” He said: “It is my deep conviction that the sooner we end this war the better for the people of Ukraine, for the people of the Russian Federation and those far beyond.” He finally ended his speech by highlighting the need to adhere to international laws and cooperation to beat climate change and epidemics. When asked on UNs stance in the war, Guterres said that his aim was to “safe lives and end suffering in Ukraine.”

India
India which is currently facing immense pressure from the west to seclude Russia since the invasion. On 26 April, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, on her visit to the US assured that India will be a “good friend,” to the western countries, but pointed that it had to prioritise protecting its interest and security. The tension arises between India and the West is due to Russia which remains the largest weapons partner for India.

References: 
“The free world has the right to self-defense and that is why it will help Ukraine even more - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,President of Ukraine, 26 April, 2022
Ukraine warns against attempts to drag Moldova's Transniestria region into war,” Reuters, 26 April 2022
Ukraine prepares war crimes charges against Russian military personnel, including pilots,”  Reuters, 26 April 2022
Four die, nine wounded from Russia's shelling of Kharkiv - governor,Reuters, 26 April 2022
Ukraine says Russian rockets flew over Europe's biggest nuclear power plant,Reuters, 26 April 2022
Ukrainian farmers don bulletproof vests to plough frontline fields,” Reuters, 26 April 2022
Russia accused of shelling Mariupol humanitarian corridor,The Guardian, 26 April 2022
Minsk-2 was attempt of peaceful settlement in Donbass — Putin,” TASS, 26 April 2022
Lavrov says Kiev made ‘theatrical gesture’ by proposing to hold talks in Mariupol,TASS, 26 April 2022
Too early to talk about mediators in talks with Ukraine — Lavrov,” TASS, 26 April 2022
Putin discussed Ukraine with Erdogan on Tuesday, Kremlin says,”TASS, 26 April 2022
Russia accuses Nato of ‘proxy war’ in Ukraine as US hosts crucial defence summit,” The Guardian, 26 April 2022
Duma speaker calls to hold Ukrainian president to account,TASS, 26 April 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 26 April 2022


26 April 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #185

War in Ukraine: Day 61

Golob lead over Jansa in Slovenia presidential election; Sentence against Kavala disappoints western nations; Trial against Gambian national

Photo : PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE


War in Ukraine: Day 61
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground: 
President meets with the US secretary of state and initiative to start a special tribunal

Zelenskyy’s meet and address
On 25 April, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with US secretary of state Antony Blinken and US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. The meeting focused on military assistance, increasing sanctions on Russia, and financial aid to Ukraine. Zelenskyy highlighted the USD 3.4 billion military aid received from the US till now and also remarked how the US has been helpful in boosting the military capabilities of Ukraine. He said: “We understand what the next steps on this track should be. And we count on the support of our partners.” Apart from this, “peace process and prospects for strengthening the anti-war coalition,” were also discussed.

In the everyday address, Zelenskyy summarised the worsening humanitarian situation in the cities, Kherson, Kakhovka, Melitopol, Dniprorudne, Enerhodar, and the lack in basic necessities for people in that region. He also brought out the points discussed with the US secretary of the state and defence secretary on further tightening of sanctions to block opportunities for Russia and on the continuation of security guarantees. Apart from this he also pointed out the discussion with Turkey’s President Erdoğan on the evacuation of wounded people in Mariupol, the need for military exchange and the rising threat to the food market due to Russia’s block in Black Sea ports. He also remarked that, in the last two months, a total of 1,100 missiles had been launched against Ukraine by Russia and 9,781 defenders had been awarded. In the end, Zelenskyy highlighted the signing of the decree to award war heroes for courage and effectiveness on the battlefield.

Other developments
Ukrainian deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk appealed to the UN and ICRC to open an agreement to establish a humanitarian corridor from the Azovstal steel plant to Mariupol. She pointed out that, unilaterally agreed corridors are being constantly under breach by the Russian troops and hence an agreement or presence of both the international bodies will help evacuate citizens. She said: “It is important to understand that a humanitarian corridor is opened by agreement of both parties. The corridor, announced unilaterally, does not provide security, and therefore, is not a humanitarian corridor.”

Ukraine's president’s office deputy head, Andriy Smyrnov said that Ukraine was preparing draft statutory documents to begin a special tribunal to look into the “crimes of aggression” by Russia. He also noted that the initiative was supported by Europe and international lawyers. According to Smyrnov: “daily work on the Book of Torturers is being carried out in coordination with the President's Office together with the Ukrainian pre-trial investigation bodies, intelligence agencies and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. This is a set of information about every Russian war criminal involved in the war and atrocities committed and being committed in Ukraine.”

Ukraine's president’s office head, Andriy Yermak pointed out that, the way to bring an end to the war was through an increased supply of weapons, stricter sanctions on Russia and other parties who are expelling Ukrainians. Apart from this he also announced the establishment of an international expert group comprising, the director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and former US National Security adviser Michael McFaul to examine the sanctions imposed on Russia and to bring up proposals to further them.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin’s comments
On 25 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin highlighted the humanitarian violations carried out by the Ukraine nationalists and mercenaries. He said that such violating acts were discovered during Russia’s special military operation. According to Putin: “blatant provocations against Russian Armed Forces, including via foreign mass and social media, require scrupulous investigation as well. It is also necessary to thwart any crimes on the Russian territory in the most decisive way.” Apart from this, on the sanctions levied by the US and Europe, he confirmed that it had impacted Russia’s economy vastly reversing the post-cold war scenario. Former Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin predicted that Russia’s GDP will fall by 10 per cent due to sanctions from the West. Putin added: “The Russian economy has every opportunity to work stably and without fail in the new realities.”

Other developments
On 25 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced the expelling of 40 German diplomats after Germany’s move of expelling Russia’s diplomats under the allegation of war crimes.

On 25 April, Lugansk People’s Republic head reported that Ukrainian military forces had targeted a mass number of civilians in the city of Rubezhnoye. He said: “Mines are delivered in such locations, the fire ensues and the deliveries [of the humanitarian cargo] are sabotaged under such conditions.”

The West view:
esponses from Europe 

The US
On 25 April, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin mentioned that he wanted to see Russia weakened to the degree that it could not continue its invasion of Ukraine. Along with the secretary of state Antony Blinken, Austin also met with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. He added that Ukraine could win the war if it had the right equipment and the proper support. US officials also said they would reopen the embassy in Ukraine following the visit of Austin and Blinken. 

On the same day, the US said it was planning for a new package that would be a part of a long term aid to Ukraine. This package would require the approval of US lawmakers. The White House press secretary Jen Psaki mentioned that the US would impose further economic sanctions against Russia. Psaki added: “No one is safe from our sanctions.” This comes as the US had also sanctioned Putin’s wife. 

US president Joe Biden spoke to France’s president Emmanuel Macron and agreed to increase their telephonic conversations on global issues and the war in Ukraine. The White House stated: “Biden conveyed his readiness to continue working closely with President Macron on our shared global priorities.” 

The UK
On 25 April, the UK said it planned to send more medical aid to Ukraine. The package would include ambulances, fire engines and medical supplies. UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson said: “The new ambulances, fire engines and funding for health experts announced today will better equip the Ukrainian people to deliver vital healthcare and save lives.” 

Canada 
On 25 April, Canada’s defence minister Anita Anand stated that she would travel to Germany and the US to discuss providing support to Ukraine. Canada’s government stated: “Chief of Defence Staff General Wayne Eyre and Deputy Minister of National Defence Bill Matthews will travel to Germany with Anand on Monday.” 

Moldova
On 25 April, a government building in Transnistria was shelled by a hand grenade launcher. This comes as a Russian commander had mentioned how Russia’s new offensive was to gain access to Transnistria by seizing control of Southern Ukraine.  

Poland
On 25 April, Poland announced that it would send tanks to Ukraine. Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed supplying Ukraine with tanks. But regarding the offer to send planes, he said: “There is no such necessity, there are no such demands, there are no such requests.” 

NATO
On 25 April, Finland and Sweden announced that they would submit their applications together by the mid of May to join the military alliance. Sweden’s prime minister Magdalena Andersson justified the country’s stance and said they had to be prepared for all kinds of actions from Moscow as everything changed once Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland’s prime minister mentioned that they had to be prepared since they shared a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia.  

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

South Korea
On 25 April, an active-duty South Korean marine who went to Ukraine to fight the war in Russia was arrested upon his return to Seoul. The ministry stated: “We will take stern measures in accordance with laws and regulations after investigating why he had left his duty.” South Korea had announced a travel ban on its citizens for travelling to Ukraine, citing safety concerns right after the war began and the marine had violated the ban.  

Australia and New Zealand 
On 25 April, on Anzac Day, thousands of protestors gathered on the streets to honour their military personnel and to pay tribute to the people of Ukraine who were fighting against Russia’s invasion. Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison said: “On this particular day, as we honour those who fought for our liberty and freedom, we stand with the people of Ukraine who do the same thing at this very moment.”  

TikTok
On 25 April, TikTok emerged as a platform for false videos about the war in Ukraine. Although Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram have been labelling false videos as misleading, TikTok has not taken any precautions to deter such videos from going viral. 

The ICC
On 25 April, the international criminal court announced it would join the EU-backed team to investigate crimes in Ukraine. The joint investigation team (JIT) comes under the purview of Eurojust, the EU agency for criminal justice cooperation. ICC’s prosecutor Karim Khan said: As I have stated since taking up my position as prosecutor, the effective exercise of the mandate of my office requires us to deepen cooperation and collaboration with all relevant actors. The Ukraine situation, in particular, demands collective action so as to secure relevant evidence and ultimately ensure its effective use in criminal proceedings.”  

References
The Orthodox world has seen that Easter means nothing to Russia - address by the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 25 April 2022
Ukraine is a real symbol of struggle for freedom - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 25 April 2022
The Orthodox world has seen that Easter means nothing to Russia - address by the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 25 April 2022
Ukraine has prepared the necessary documents for the launch of a special tribunal on the crime of aggression as soon as possible - Andriy Smyrnov,” President of Ukraine, 25 April 2022
Russians continue to destroy Ukrainian cities and kill people, so it is clear that the existing sanctions are not enough - Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 25 April 2022
Ukraine’s military target civilians lined up for potable water in Rubezhnoye,” TASS, 25 April 2022
Ukrainian nationalists, foreign mercenaries violate international law, Putin says,” TASS, 25 April 2022
Mauro Orru, “Putin Says Russia Faces ‘Unprecedented Pressure’ From Western Sanctions,” WSJ, 25 April 2022
Mauro Orru, “Russia Expels Dozens of German Diplomats in Retaliatory Move,” WSJ, 25 April 2022
War in Ukraine: Yorkshire-built armoured ambulances arrive in Lviv,” BBC Live, 25 April 2022 "The UK plans to send more medical aid to Ukraine, including ambulances, fire engines and medical supplies,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
The US will probably impose further economic sanctions against Russia, the White House said on Monday,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
The US said today that new aid for Ukraine will likely be apart of a longer-term aid package that requires approval from US lawmakers,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
Canada’s defence minister will travel to Germany and the US to discuss how to support Ukraine, reports Reuters,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
US officials have promised to reopen the embassy in Ukraine following a visit to the country over the weekend,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
"Poland said today that it sent tanks to Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
French president Emmanuel Macron and US president Joe Biden agreed in a phone call today to “rapidly” have more detail discussions on a number of global issues, including the war in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
Jon Henley, “Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit simultaneous membership applications to the US-led Nato alliance as early as the middle of next month," The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022
A government building in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria was shelled by a hand grenade launcher on Monday,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
US 'wants to see Russia weakened', says defence secretary,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022
Shayan Sardarizadeh, “Ukraine war: False TikTok videos draw millions of views,” BBC Live, 25 April 2022 
Haroon Siddique, “The office of the prosecutor of the international criminal court (ICC) has joined an EU-backed team investigating crimes in Ukraine in an unprecedented move,” The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022 
An active-duty South Korean marine who made an unauthorised overseas trip – reportedly an attempt to reach Ukraine," The Guardian Live, 25 April 2022
Australia, NZ show support for Ukraine at ANZAC Day commemorations,” Reuters, 25 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Voters re-elect Macron despite many disappointments 
On 25 April, an opinion in  Deutsche Welle examined the voter’s decision for re-electing president Emmanuel Macron for a second term despite his many failures. First, voters had to choose him despite his unfavourable reforms on public rail company SNCF and liberalization of the labour market. Second, Macron failed to address the yellow vest protesters' agendas and keep up with his 2017 pledge to “make our planet great again.” Thirdly, voters also forgave his decision to scrap a EUR 48 billion plan to raise the living standards of France's impoverished suburbs. Macron was accused of only implementing right-wing policies and being ignorant to day-day worries of the people. To keep the far-right from rising Macron needs to implement more leftist and ecological policies which he had promised during his campaigns and empathize with those who feel left behind by him. (Lisa Louis, “Opinion: Macron needs to bring France back together,” Deutsche Welle, 25 April 2022)

Political rivals of Macron tend to the legislative elections to overpower him
On 25 April, president Emmanuel Macron following his re-elections will soon confront another struggle in the upcoming legislative elections to be held on 12 and 19 June. His political opponents called on the voters to deny him a parliamentary majority. If Macron does not secure a parliamentary majority he will have to pick a prime minister from another party, which might lead to a “cohabitation.” During a cohabitation, the president retains command of the military forces and some foreign policy influence, but the government is in charge of administration and policies. Both the far-right and far-left parties plan to form an alliance separately with their close allies in the parliamentary elections to overpower Macron. (Sophie Louet and Ingrid Melander, “No respite for re-elected Macron as parliamentary elections loom,” Reuters, 25 April 2022)

GERMANY
Trials begin of a Gambian man accused of assassination
On 25 April, federal prosecutors start trials of a Gambian national accused of crimes against humanity and involvement in the assassinations of the critics of Dictator Yahya Jammeh during the years between 2003 and 2006. He is alleged of two murders, an attempted murder, and his involvement in the assassination squad called Junglers. The defendant was captured in March 2021 at Hanover and is being tried in the court of Celle. This case is the first time in the world that human rights violations in the Gambia during the Jammeh administration have been tried under "universal jurisdiction." Under the principle of universal jurisdiction, a state can claim criminal jurisdiction over an accused person regardless of where the crime was committed. (“Germany opens trial of Gambia death squad suspect,” Deutsche Welle, 25 April 2022)

SLOVENIA
Liberal Golob leads against three-time president Jansa in a partial count
On 24 April, prime minister Janez Jansa of Slovenia is likely to lose his reelection to Robert Golob. Jansa who has been a three-time prime minister of Slovenia has found himself in a race against the newcomer Robert Golob of the Freedom Movement (GS). Robert Golob who heads the small liberal party had almost 33 per cent of the vote compared to Jansa's Slovenia Democratic Party's 25 per cent. The partial results showed that the conservative Jansa is being ousted by the liberal Golob. Observers state that neither party will receive a valid amount of votes, making a coalition government a high probability. Jansa, who is aged 63, has faced a lot of criticism over his moves to suspend funding to the national news agency and also regarding rule of law in Brussels. These criticisms and corruption scandals as well are hurting his chance at reelection. Meanwhile, Golob, who is aged 55, is a political newcomer who advocates for environmental concerns. (“Slovenia: Newcomer set to oust right-wing premier Jansa,” Deutsche Welle, 26 April 2022)

TURKEY
Life imprisonment for the Turkish rights activist Osman Kavala 
On 25 April, Osman Kavala was charged with life imprisonment with no possibility of parole for espionage and planning to topple the government. He was already detained for five years before the sentence. The human rights activist was found guilty because he was involved in the 2013 Gezi protests and the 2016 coup attempt. He was already acquitted of these charges in 2020 but was again apprehended for allegedly providing financial aid to both the incidents. The western nations view this judgement on Kavala as an inhumane and unjust judiciary decision. They also speculated that it was a crackdown on Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's critics. The European nations including Germany and the US have openly condemned the sentence given by Turkey's judicial system in this case. (“Turkey: Rights activist Osman Kavala sentenced to life in prison,” Deutsche Welle, 26 April 2022) 


25 April 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #184

War in Ukraine: Day 59 & 60

Photo : Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 59 & 60
by Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee 

War on the ground
Zelenskyy’s address
President Zelensky informed about his talk with prime minister Boris Johnson about the situation in Mariupol, and the general state of hostilities so far. He also thanked him for the “significant defensive and financial support” that the UK had sent to Ukraine. He also spoke about a press conference in Kyiv, which was attended by both local and foreign journalists. He also said that he was preparing to talk to the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

On 24 April Zelenskiy said on Sunday that the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan had held talks. They discussed the need for evacuation of the civilians in Mariupol.

Luhansk under intense shelling
On 23 April, the governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai said that eastern Luhansk was constantly under heavy shelling. Amidst, Ukraine’s forces trying to regroup in the region the Russian barrage was also intensifying. However, he said that it was not a critical setback. He also informed about an artillery strike on the front line town of Zolote, which killed two civilians and wounded two. 

Continued shelling in Mariupol
On 23 April, Ukraine's presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said that the offensive in the Azovstal steelworks has been resumed. In an address on the national television, he mentioned how the Russians were conducting airstrikes in an effort to storm the Avovstal, where the last forces are holding out. 

On 24 April, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk informed that it had not been possible to set up any humanitarian corridors in Mariupol. She blamed the Russian forces for not holding their fire and urged U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to talk about this when he visits Moscow next week. Ukraine also reiterated how Russian forces continued to storm the Azovstal steelworks.

Casualties reported in Odessa
On 23 April, Russia conducted a missile strike on Odessa. On national television, the region’s spokesperson, Serhiy Bratchuk said: "There are casualties - killed and wounded," while mentioning that the exact toll was still being counted.

Other developments
On 24 April, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said that Russia has deployed Iskander-M mobile battlefield missile launchers within 60 km of Ukraine’s border. He said: "Then enemy has increased the number of troops in the Belgorod region by transferring and concentrating additional units.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russia’s Defence Ministry
On 23 April, Russia’s defence ministry informed that they have shot down one of Ukraine’s Su-25 fighter jets, along with three MI-8 helicopters, in an airfield in Kharkiv. They also mentioned that a logistics terminal in Odesa had been hit by high precision missiles. Reportedly a large number of weapons given by the USA and European nations were being stored in the terminal.

On 24 April, The ministry also reported that nine Ukrainian military targets were hit by high-precision missiles. This included four arms depots in Kharkiv region. They also allegedly hit a facility in Dnipropetrovsk which produced explosives for Ukraine’s forces.

Russia looks into British SAS special forces in Ukraine
On April 23, Reuters reported that Russia was looking into the alleged sabotage experts that are part of Britain’s SAS special forces. A Russian security source alleged that about 20 SAS members have been sent to Lviv, though the British Defence Ministry was not available for comment on this. This is especially of consequence because of the repercussions Russia has promised to unleash, if teh West, especially a NATO country gets in the way of their “special military operation”

Ukraine’s aggression in Russia
On 23 April, Roman Starovoit, the Russian governor for the Kursk region said on his Telegram account that Ukraine had shelled a crossing point in Russian territory. He also said that an office building of Rosselkhoznadzor, a Russian agriculture watchdog also caught fire as a result of it.

On 24 April, according to TASS, a village in the Belgorod region was shelled by Ukraine. This region is on the border of Ukraine. Russia said that no casualties were reported and one of the projectiles landed in a field. 

The West view:
Responses from Europe

The US
On 24 April, US state department spokesperson Ned Price spoke about the war in Ukraine and said: "This is going to be a victory for Ukraine. On the other hand, it is going to be a strategic defeat for Russia. However and whenever that happens, we are confident of that." He added that Ukraine would win because of their grit, determination, tenacity, and due to the immense security assistance from the US.  

On the same day, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin and secretary of state Antony Blinken visited Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy. The leaders discussed the war in Ukraine and the US arms supplies to Kyiv. 

Also, on 24 April, the Institute for the Study of War released a report on how the Russian forces will likely increase their ground offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Nevertheless, they added: "…it is too soon to tell how fast they will do so or how large those offensives will be." On the Ukrainian soldiers stuck in the Azovstal Steel Plant, they predicted that Russia would attempt to starve out the remaining defenders, and they would not allow trapped civilians to evacuate. 

The UK 
On 24 April, UK's prime minister Boris Johnson assured Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to send more armoured vehicles, drones and anti-tank weapons. Johnson also mentioned that Russia would be held accountable for its actions in Ukraine. He added that the UK would also help in collecting evidence of war.  

On the same day, the UK's defence ministry released an intelligence update that stated that Russia was planning to conscript Ukrainian civilians from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. They added that this plan would also be followed in Crimea and Donbas eventually. The ministry added: "Any enlistment of Ukrainian civilians into the Russian armed forces, even if presented by Russia as being voluntary or military service in accordance with Russian law, would constitute a violation of article 51 of the fourth Geneva Convention."

On 23 April, the UK stated that it would be reopening its embassy in Kyiv. Apart from that, it also announced to provide additional military aid and assured to issue new sanctions against members of the Russian military. 

Germany
On 23 April, former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder stated that he would resign if Russia cut Germany's gas supply. Schröder said: "It won't happen…But if it did, then I would resign." Schröder is the current head of the supervisory board of state energy company Rosneft. 

On the same day, Germany's finance minister Christian Lindner extended his support to chancellor Olaf Scholz's policies on arms deliveries to Kyiv. Scholz was being criticised domestically and internationally for refusing to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons. Germany also stated that it would do everything to help Ukraine win, but without endangering its security and NATO's defence capability. 

Poland
On 23 April, Poland and Ukraine said that they created a joint logistics company to help Kyiv send out its grain exports to the EU and its global markets. The leaders of Ukraine and Poland signed an MoU to officially declare the initiation of the venture. It was launched in response to Russia's invasion and blockade of Ukraine's ports cities.  

Latvia
On 23 April, Latvian ambassador Ilgvars Klava said he had returned to Kyiv. Klava returned to Kyiv since Russian forces had withdrawn their troops from and around the capital.  

Turkey
On 23 April, Turkey closed its airspace to Russian planes carrying soldiers to Syria. Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said: "We have closed our airspace to Russian military planes and also civilian planes flying to Syria and carrying soldiers."  

OSCE
On 24 April, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said it was highly concerned about the war in Ukraine and several of its members who are believed to be arrested in pro-Russian separatist territories. The OSCE stated: "The OSCE is extremely concerned that a number of @OSCE_SMM national mission members have been deprived of their liberty in Donetsk and Lugansk." 

Pope Francis
On 24 April, Pope Francis said he used the Orthodox Easter weekend to re-appeal for a truce between Russia and Ukraine. He added: "I renew the appeal for an Easter truce, the smallest tangible sign of a willingness for peace. Stop the attacks to ease the suffering of exhausted people." At St Peter's Square, a blue and yellow flag of Ukraine flew among the people gathered.  

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
 

Indonesia
On 24 April, Indonesia announced a ban on its palm oil exports. This comes as Indonesia faces a shortage of palm oil supplies for its domestic markets. Indonesia's president Joko Widodo said it was to "...ensure the availability of food products at home, after global food inflation soared to a record high following Russia's invasion of major crop producer Ukraine." 

The UN
On 24 April, the UN stated that almost 5.2 million Ukrainian had fled the country since the start of the war. The report mentioned: “The total figure of 5,186,744 increases 23,058 over Saturday’s data, the UNHCR said. More than 1,151,000 Ukrainians have left during April so far, compared with 3.4 million in the month of March alone.”  

On the same day, the UN’s Ukraine crisis coordinator, Amin Awad, urged for an end to the fighting in Mariupol to evacuate the civilians trapped in the city. He added: “The lives of tens of thousands, including women, children and older people, are at stake in Mariupol…we need a pause in fighting right now to save lives.” The UN estimates that around 100,000 civilians are still trapped in Ukraine. 

Also, on 24 April, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said he would be visiting Turkey before travelling to Moscow and Kyiv. This comes as Turkey has been a crucial mediator between Ukraine and Russia and has hosted peace discussions between the two countries. 

The IAEA
On 24 April, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Ukraine had asked for a “…comprehensive list of equipment” to run its nuclear power plants. This comes as IAEA officials are visiting the nuclear power plants in the country.  

The Mount Everest
On 23 April, a BBC report mentioned the repercussions of the War in Ukraine on Mount Everest. The mountaineering industry, which was already impacted by the pandemic, was now facing cancellations due to the war.  

References: 
Ukraine says shelling of eastern Luhansk's cities intensifying,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Russia has resumed offensive against Ukrainian forces in Mariupol's Azovstal, Ukrainian official says,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Missile strike on Ukraine's Odesa caused casualties, says regional spokesperson,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Artillery strike kills two civilians in Ukraine's Luhansk region, says governor,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy, Turkey's Erdogan discuss Mariupol,” Reuters, 24 April 2022
Ukraine blames Russia after Mariupol humanitarian corridor fails on Sunday,” Reuters, 24 April 2022
Russia says it destroyed Odesa terminal where foreign weapons were stored,”Reuters, 23 April 2022
Russia says it shot down Ukrainian fighter jet in Kharkiv region,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Russia investigates media report on presence of British SAS special forces in Ukraine,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Ukraine shells crossing point in Russia, governor of Russian region says,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Russia says village in Belgorod region shelled by Ukraine -TASS,” Reuters, 24 April 2022
Russia says it struck arms depots in Ukraine's Kharkiv region,” Reuters, 24 April 2022
James Clarke, “Ukraine war: UK to send more military equipment, Johnson tells Zelensky,” BBC Live, 24 April 2022 
US: 'This is going to be a victory for Ukraine’,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022
US officials meet Zelenskiy in Kyiv,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 
OSCE ‘concerned’ over missing members in separatist areas,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 
Pope Francis has used the Orthodox Easter weekend to once again appeal for a truce in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 
The US-based Institute for the Study of War has released its latest analysis, warning that Russian forces will likely increase the scale of ground offensive operations in the coming days,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022
The United Kingdom’s ministry of defense has released an intelligence update,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 
"The United Kingdom will be reopening its embassy in Kyiv,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 “Ukraine says missiles hit residential buildings in Odesa — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 24 April 2022
UN: almost 5.2 million Ukrainians flee war,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 
UN’s Ukraine crisis coordinator, Amin Awad, has called for an “immediate stop” to fighting in Mariupol so that civilians trapped in the city can be evacuated today,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 “UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will visit Turkey on Monday before travelling to Moscow and Kyiv, the UN said,” The Guardian, 24 April 2022 
Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events on day 60,” Al Jazeera, 24 April 2022 
Ukraine conflict day 60: Zelenskyy discusses Mariupol with Erdogan,” CGTN, 24 April 2022
Anbarasan Ethirajan, “Mount Everest: Even world's highest peak not immune to the Ukraine war,” BBC Live, 24 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

FRANCE
Emmanuel Macron wins a second term, defeats Marine Le Pen
On 24 April, Macron won a second term with a vote share of 58.8 per cent. US president Joe Biden congratulated Macron and said: “I look forward to our continued close cooperation — including on supporting Ukraine, defending democracy, and countering climate change.” This comes as the US expects close cooperation with France, especially with the selection of Macron as the next president. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, congratulated Macron and called him a true friend of Ukraine. Elysee’s presidential office stated that Macron had spoken to Germany’s president Olaf Scholz and said: “It was the first call taken by the President, a mark of Franco-German friendship.” (“Emmanuel Macron wins French presidential election — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 25 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
European commission president visits New Delhi 
On 24 April, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen visited India to strengthen EU-India ties. Ursula’s visit to New Delhi would renew talks on energy issues and climate neutrality. She added: “But Europe alone won’t save our planet. It’s a global effort, and we need to work with India. And we count on you, the young people, to keep fighting for the climate.” She also would be meeting India’s prime minister Narendra Modi and plans to discuss New Delhi’s position in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit comes as the EU and India are celebrating 60 years of relations. (Dharvi Vaid, “EU chief Ursula von der Leyen begins India tour,” Deutsche Welle, 25 April 2022)


23 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #183

War in Ukraine: Day 58

Finland and Sweden conduct joint naval exercised; Stafford Town’s Carbon Bubble; 2021 a “year of extremes” in EU; France’spresidential candidates exchange taunts

Photo : Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 58
by Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground 
Zelenskyy's address
On 22 April, in his daily update, Zelenskyy said that the Russian stronghold in the east of Ukraine was only temporary and would eventually be forced to retreat by Ukraine's troops. He referred to various Russian tactics to establish control and said they would be futile. He said: "None of these steps will help Russia in the war against our state. They can only delay the inevitable - the time when the invaders will have to leave our territory. In particular, Mariupol - a city that continues to resist Russia, despite everything the occupiers say." According to BBC, Russia has been successful in capturing 42 villages in the eastern Donetsk region. Zelenskyy also reiterated how all countries "must immediately be prepared" to cut-off ties with Russia and accept the necessary sanctions to help Ukraine. He mentioned that Ukraine's allies were finally delivering the weapons they had promised, and it was coming at the most crucial time in the war.

Ukraine's Defence Ministry on Russia launching further strikes
Ukraine's defence ministry spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said that Russia's army identified the areas east of the country where it will launch its main strikes. He also said that the Russian activity had been most pronounced in the Izyum-Barvinkove direction, near Popasna, Severodonetsk, on the Zaporizhzhya-Donetsk road and in Mariupol. He also reported the presence of two Russian warships, which can carry Kalibr cruise missiles, in the Black Sea.

Mariupol mayor on civilian evacuation
On 22 April, the mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko, expressed his discontent about how the civilians in Mariupol were being evacuated amidst rising tensions and dwindling resources in the port city. In an interview with Reuters, He said that 100,000 people were still stuck in the city, but Russia was not cooperating with the process of establishing humanitarian corridors. He said: "They asked us to give them a map of where the evacuation will start from - we gave them the map. (They asked) how many buses do you have? We gave the number of buses. And they destroyed and demolished all of those places, they destroyed our buses." He also mentioned that these people's lives were solely in Putin's hands. The mayor's advisor, Petro Andryushchenko, said that a new mass grave has also been discovered near Mariupol. He urged journalists to find photos of the grave on satellite images and said that it was in the Livoberezhnyy district near the Vynohradne village cemetery.

Zaporizhzhia: Transport aircraft goes down
On 22 April, according to the BBC, one of Ukraine's planes, AN-26, undergoing a "technical flight" crashed in the Vilnia district of the Zaporizhzhia region. It was a military transport aircraft. The Zaporizhzhia regional military administration said there were casualties, and the causes and reasons for the crash are being verified.

Kharkiv: 30 per cent of the population has fled, says the mayor
On 22 April, according to the BBC, Kharkiv's mayor told BBC that about 30 per cent of the population had fled the city, but still, about one million people were there, awaiting evacuation. He mentioned that Russin forces continued shelling residential areas and said: "This is not a war of soldiers against soldiers, it is the killing of a nation."

Other developments
The World Bank said that Ukraine's building and infrastructure had sustained damages worth an estimated USD 60 billion. This, does not include the economic costs of the war. President Zelenskyy also referred to this and said that Ukraine would be needing an estimated USD 7 billion per month to make up for the heavy economic losses.

On 22 April, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, who is in charge of coordinating the humanitarian corridors, said that Ukraine will not be able to establish any humanitarian corridors. She said on social media: "Due to the danger along the routes today, 22 April, there will be no humanitarian corridors… To all those waiting to be evacuated: be patient, please hold on!"

The sinking of the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva has been a veritable turning point in the war. On 22 April, it was declared that the wreckage of the ship will be declared one of Ukraine's underwater cultural heritage. The ship which sank 80 miles from Odesa, is at a depth of 45-50 metres, according to the Ukrainian Military TV

It was also reported that Ukraine's national postal service Ukrposhta experienced a cyberattack on Friday following the sales of a postage stamp which was offensive to the Russian eye. After the sinking of the Moskva, queues had formed outside the postal headquarters to buy this stamp, when it went on sale.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

President Putin's remarks
Russia's President Vladimir Putin during the call with the European Council, President affirmed that the direct talks will be possible only with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy. He also pointed out that Ukraine was rigid in mutual solutions and varying in negotiations.

Russia Defence Ministry
The Defence Ministry agreed to stop the attacks on the Azovstal steelworks to allow the workers and civilians trapped inside the factory. In the statement issued: "We once again declare that Russia is ready at any moment to introduce a regime of silence and announce a humanitarian pause for the evacuation of civilians."

On 22 April, Defence Ministry claimed that it had taken down 58 military targets of Ukraine over one night, the damage also includes striking of S-300 anti-craft missiles, fuel depots and military equipment.

On 22 April, Russia's deputy military commander, Maj Gen Rustam Minnekayev said that Russia was planning to take complete control of the easter and southern part of Ukraine. He said: "Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, which has already begun just two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to Crimea, as well as affect the vital facilities of the Ukrainian economy." He added a significant development on southern Ukraine, stating Minnekayev in southern Ukraine would give Russia access to Transnistria which will enable take a part of Moldova to Russia's troops.

The West view:
Responses from Europe

The US
On 22 April, the Organisation of American States (OAS), announced that until the hostility situation ends, Russia will be banned from participating in the forum as a permanent member. The US secretary of the state said: "We do not stand on the sidelines in the face of the Russian government's violations of international humanitarian law and human rights abuses."

The EU
European Council President, Charles Michel reiterated Russia's losses and mistakes in a call with President Putin. He also urged Putin to give immediate access to Ukraine for evacuation through humanitarian corridors.

Germany
Germany which has been under recent public criticism for sending military support to Ukraine still continues to train the Ukraine soldiers with German-made weapons. Till now 55 per cent of Germans have voted to send 55 per cent of heavy weapons and 37 per cent have voted against it. When compared to the US and the UK, Germany has sent fewer number weapons, but the chancellor sees the supply of tanks as reasonable.

The UK
On 22 April, the UK prime minister Boris Johnson disclosed on the training of the Ukraine forces on using armoured vehicles of the UK. To support Ukraine, the UK has provided 120 armoured vehicles to be used as patrol vehicle. Along with this, the schedule is also set for training on Samaritan ambulance, and Samson armoured reconnaissance vehicles. Johnson said: "I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles." Apart from this, Johnson appreciated Ukraine's efforts in withstanding and fighting hard against Russia. On the question of India's stance, Johnson remarked that prime minister Modi strong language on the violence in Bucha and India's need for peace was accepted. He added: "The only option he now has, really, is to continue to try to use his appalling, grinding approach driven by artillery, trying to grind the Ukrainians down."

UK defence ministry reported that Russia's move to lay block on Azovstal steel plant was an indication of Russia's strong resistance in Mariupol. According to the ministry: "A full ground assault by Russia on the plant would likely incur significant Russian casualties, further decreasing their overall combat effectiveness." It also observed on the continued attacks by Russia in Krasnyy Lyman, Buhayikva, Barvinkove, Lyman and Popasna. Apart from that it also found that due to the losses suffered by the Russia's troops, Russia was recuperating by sending back its inoperable machines into Russia to repair.

The UK announced to send "challenger 2 main battle tanks" to resupply the T-72 tanks which in turn will be sent by Poland to Ukraine. It will be an addition to the armoured vehicles sent by the UK to Ukraine.


The Global Fallouts
International implications of the Ukraine war

Japan
On 22 April, amid the war in Ukraine, Japan stated that Russia illegally occupied the disputed islands between Moscow and Tokyo. Japan last called these islands illegally occupied back in 2003. This comes as relations between the two countries have been deteriorating. 

Taiwan
On 22 April, Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, mentioned to Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko that their country was feeling the situation faced by Ukraine. He added: "…and therefore feel the current situation faced by Ukraine as though it is happening to ourselves." Taiwan also announced that it would donate USD three million to Kyiv and USD five million to Ukrainian medical institutions. 

The UN
On 22 April, a report by the UN stated that more than 11 million people fled their homes in Ukraine. According to the UN's international organisation for migration, about 6.5 million people were internally displaced within Ukraine. The UN currently is working on providing cash to the refugees to pay for food and rent. They also provided folding beds to people in the bomb shelters and set up reception and transit points for the internally-displaced people. Furthermore, the report mentioned the countries that the refugees headed to, the mode of transportation and what help these countries offered to the refugees. 

On the same day, UN chief António Guterres announced that he would be meeting with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. UN chief's spokesperson Eri Kaneko said: "Guterres hopes to talk about what can be done to bring peace to Ukraine urgently." This comes as Guterres had asked Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to receive him separately in Kyiv and Moscow. 

Also, on 22 April, the UN monitoring mission in Ukraine documented the unlawful killings of 50 people in Bucha. The UN human rights commissioner Michelle Bachelet added: "We know much more needs to be done to uncover what happened there and we also know Bucha is not an isolated incident." The mission received allegations that Russian forces had killed more than 300 civilians unlawfully in the regions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy. 

IMF
On 22 April, the IMF stated that Europe could stay without Russian gas supplies for six months, But after that, the economic impact of independence from Russian gas would be severe. IMF's European department head Alfred Kammer said: "…if that gas shut off were to last into the winter, and over a longer period, then that would have significant effects." He further called for steps to prepare for the worst possibilities and stated that the loss of Russian gas could cost the EU three per cent of its GDP. 

IAEA
On 22 April, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi stated that he would be visiting nuclear plants in Ukraine in the upcoming days. This was in an effort by the IAEA to deter a nuclear accident during the conflict in the country. Grossi said: "The IAEA's presence at Chernobyl will be of paramount importance for our activities to support Ukraine as it seeks to restore regulatory control of the plant and ensure its safe and secure operation." 

References:
Ukraine's Zelenskiy: allies finally delivering weapons Kyiv asked for,” Reuters, 23 April 2022
Mariupol mayor appeals for 'full evacuation' as Ukrainian safe corridors falter,Reuters, 22 April 2022
Ukraine's postal service hit by cyberattack after sales of warship stamp go online,Reuters, 22 April 2022
Russia blockaded steel plant to contain Ukraine resistance - UK MoD,” BBC Live, 22 April 2022
Damien McGuinness, “Germany steps up weapons supply amid public criticism,” BBC Live, 22 April 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 22 April 2022
How many Ukrainians have fled their homes and where have they gone?,” BBC Live, 22 April 2022 
"Europe can get by without Russian gas for six months, but beyond that, the economic impact would be severe,” The Guardian Live, 22 April 2022 
Here’s more on the meeting between the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow next week,” The Guardian Live, 22 April 2022 
UN warns of ‘a horror story of violations against civilians’ in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 22 April 2022
The head of the UN atomic watchdog has said he will visit Ukraine’s Chornobyl nuclear plant next week,” The Guardian Live, 22 April 2022
Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, told Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, that his country was feeling the situation faced by Ukraine “as though it is happening to ourselves,” The Guardian Live, 22 April 2022  
Japan says disputed islands ‘illegally occupied’ by Russia,” The Guardian Live, 22 April 2022


IN BRIEF

By Rishma Banerjee

The UK
Stafford town sets up Carbon Bubble to encourage citizens toward the net-zero goal
On 22 April, a huge inflatable made of bio-degradable nylon has been set up in Stafofrd town. This symbolises a tonne of carbon, and has been installed to commemorate Earth Day, and encourage people towards achieving the goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Conservative Councillor Victoria Wilson said: "It's very difficult for people to understand what carbon actually looks like, so this is a great way to make people aware.. We want them to think how they can change their daily activities to reduce carbon emissions." The bubble was transported in electric vehicles and has been filled with fossil-free Green D+ fuel made with 100% renewable energy. (“Carbon Bubble in Stafford town centre highlights emissions,” BBC News, 22 April 2022)

FRANCE
France’s presidential candidates exchange taunts ahead of Sunday’s vote
On 22 April, it was reported that the fight for the French presidency between centrist Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen had turned bitter. The candidates have reportedly resorted to exchanging taunts as the campaign closes before Sunday’s impending presidential run-off vote. Macron said that electing Le Pen would be dangerous as it would turn France into a society of “hate and fracture.” Le pen reported to these accusations by saying that using such old accusations of extremism was a mere weakness of president Macron.(“French election: Macron and Le Pen trade taunts as campaigning ends,” BBC News, 22 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Finland and Sweden conduct a joint naval exercise
On 22 April, it was reported that the navies and Finland and Sweden have jointly conducted anti-submarine warfare (ASW) exercises in the Gulf of Finland. This was part of a cross border training exercise, in order to improve international interoperability and to train the personnel as well. This might be all the more relevant given how both the countries are contemplating joining NATO. Finland’s Commander Toni Joutsia, who led the exercise said: “The exercise is a part of the close cooperation conducted by Finland with Sweden. Participating in international training activities is important, because it demonstrates, maintains and develops our national defence.” (“Finnish Navy Trains ASW With Swedish Submarine,Naval News, 22 April, 2022)

REGIONAL
EU climate researchers say 2021 was the “year of extremes”
On 22 April, climate researchers of the EU, in their annual report said that 2021 has been a year of extremes for Europe. Copernicus Climate Change Service wrote that the contrast was particularly higher in 2021. It was the hottest year on record, and Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany went through extreme rainfall and severe flooding. Italy recorded a record of 48.8 degrees temperature and Greece, and Turkey witnessed devastating wildfires. According to their calculations, 800,000 hectares of the Mediterranean of nature reserves were affected by fires. There was also low wind speed in parts of in Western and Central Europe, mainly in Germany, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, which hampered renewable energy generation. (“Hottest summer, floods, fires: 2021 was a “year of extremes,” NL Times, 22 April 2022) 


22 April 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #182

War in Ukraine: Day 57

Denmark plans to set up an asylum processing centre in Rwanda; “Partygate” accused Boris Johnson visits India; Norway apologises for a law criminalising homosexuality

Photo : Pool Moncloa/Borja Puig de la Bellacasa


War in Ukraine: Day 57
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyys address
On 21 April, president Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has offerred all optionsto Russia for the swapping of citizens in Mariupol for Russian soldiers but is still waiting on Moscows reply. He also said that 120,000 civilians were being blocked from leaving the besieged city. He also spoke about his session with Mrs Kristalina Georgieva, the chairperson of IMF. Zelenskyy said that they spoke in general about the condition in Ukraine, and especially the state of Kharkiv, the largest city in the east of Ukraine, which has been under Russian attack. In his address, he also touched upon the food shortage that is bound to plague the world and said: Without Ukrainian wheat, corn, vegetable oil and other commodities, this will result not only in physical food shortages in many countries in Africa and Asia but also in political instability and possibly a new migration crisis.

Kyiv
On 21 April, it was reported that the bodies of 1,020 civilians were being stored in morgues in and around Kyiv. This is after the bodies of nine civilians were found in Borodyanka, a town near Kyiv. The head of police of the Kyiv region, Andriy Niebytov, said, these people were civilians. The Russian military knowingly shot civilians who did not put up any resistance.

Mariupol
On 21 April, Ukraines deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said that Ukraine had demanded the immediate establishment of a humanitarian corridor in Mariupol. The Mayor of Mariupol, in a news conference, said that around 200 people were waiting to be evacuated, but no buses were available. Serhiy Volyna, a commander from the 36th separate marine brigade fighting in Mariupol, said the forces  “may be facing our last days, if not hours. This is in light of how Putin has ordered his troops to seal the Azovstal Factory amidst increasing offending in the city.

Other developments
On 21 April, the United Nations refugee agency reported that more than 5 million refugees had fled Ukraine, while 7.7 million people have been displaced internally. The report also said that an additional 13 million people were stranded in various parts of the country, unable to leave, due to heightened security leaks. 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
 

Claims on Mariupol
On 21 April, Russia’s defence minister Sergey Shoigu met with president Vladimir Putin and updated him on the situation in Mariupol. He stated that the Russian armed forces, along with the Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR) forces, have liberated the city.  

On the same day, Putin hailed the liberation of Mariupol and called off the operation to storm the zovstal steel plant in the city. The plant is said to be the last resort of 2,000 Ukrainian militants. Putin called off the offensive, saying that the troops would need about three to four days to breach the plant, which would be unreasonable. 

Bank of Russia
On 21 April, the governor of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that Russia had all the financial resources to pay off its debts. She added: “…there is no threat of default.”  

More restrictions on foreign agents
On 21 April, Russia’s lawmakers said they would submit a few amendments to the law on foreign agents. The amendment would ban journalists and other people designated as foreign agents to not investing in strategic industries or working with children. Which meant that the agents would be banned from investing in defence, security, aviation and teaching.  

Russia sanctions 61 Canadians
On 21 April, Russia announced that it would sanction 61 journalists, officials and military experts from Canada. Reuters reported: The list includes Special Operations Forces commander major-general Steve Boivin, Central Bank governor Tiff Macklem as well as John Tory and Jim Watson, the mayors of Toronto and Ottawa.They justified the ban by saying the entities supported a Russophobicstance. 

Russia bars entry to US officials 
On 21 April, Russia stated that it had expanded its ban on US officials including vice president Kamala Harris and 28 other American officials, journalists and businesspeople. The Russian foreign ministry said: “These individuals are denied entry into the Russian Federation indefinitely.”  

Russia to close its consulates in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
On 21 April, Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed the closure of its consulates in three former Soviet Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. The ministry informed that it was done in reciprocity. They further added that it was also on account of their support of the regime in Kyiv.  

Russia-Ukraine talks continue in video format
On 21 April, Russia’s foreign ministry member Alexey Polishchuk stated that the talks between the two countries would continue in a video format almost every day. He added: Direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are currently ongoing. Interdepartmental delegations of the sides are discussing possible agreements on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine, its future neutral, non-aligned status, and other issues.”  

Russia to end military operation after NATOs colonisation of Ukraine is eliminated 
On 21 April, Russia stated that its special military operation would end once threats related to NATO’s colonisation of Ukraine ended. Polishchuk said: The special military operation will end once its tasks are fulfilled. Among them are the protection of the peaceful population of Donbass, demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as the elimination of threats to Russia coming from the Ukrainian territory due to its colonisation by NATO members.”  

Russia to make Ukraine nuclear-free and restore a neutral status 
On 21 April, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, stated that their special operation in Ukraine was focused on demilitarisation and denazification. He also slammed the Organization of American States (OAS) decision to suspend Russias observer status. He added: We need a confirmation of this eastern European countrys non-nuclear and neutral status. We will ensure it. This is vital for our Slavic peoples living in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 21 April, US president Joe Biden announced a USD 800 million package for new arms supplies sent to Ukraine. He said he would ask Congress for more funding for Ukraine to fend off Russia’s new offensive in the east and south. Biden added: And the United States and our allies and partners are moving as fast as possible to continue to provide Ukraine the weapons their forces need to defend their nation. 

On the same day, the US disproved Russias claims of liberating Mariupol. US spokesperson Ned Price said: We understand that Ukraines forces continue to hold their ground, and there is every reason to believe that President Putin and his defence ministers show for the media that we saw in recent hours is even yet more disinformation from their well-worn playbook.Price further mentioned that Russia was still battling thousands of Ukrainian troops defending the Azovstal steelworks. 

Also, on 21 April, Biden announced that the US would accept up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees under their Uniting for Ukraineprogram. The program will commence next week, and will allow Ukrainians to move to the US if they have sponsors there temporarily.  

The UK
On 21 April, the UK government said it was training Ukrainian soldiers to use their armoured vehicles. This comes as UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson revealed that they would be sending at least 120 armoured vehicles to Ukraine. Out of the 120 vehicles, 80 of them are the Mastiff, Husky and Wolfhound protected mobility vehicles, which the UK uses for combat, combat support and combat services roles. This would help Ukraine to fight the Russian offensive in the east.  

On the same day, the UK announced the ban of imports of Savia and other high-end products from Russia in its latest round of sanctions. UKs international trade secretary, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, said: We are taking every opportunity we can to ratchet the pressure to isolate the Russian economy, and these further measures will tighten the screws, shutting down lucrative avenues of funding for [Vladimir] Putins war machine.The import ban would include silver and wood products, while the tariffs on the import of diamonds and rubber from Russia and Belarus would be increased by 35 per cent. 

Ireland 
On 21 April, Ireland’s prime minister Micheál Martin said it would look to open more areas to offer shelter to Ukrainian refugees. Martin met with Ukraines prime minister Denys Shmyhal and discussed the possibility of taking in more Ukrainian refugees and extending financial support to Ukraine. Ireland has welcomed 24,438 refugees from Ukraine, and out of that, 16,128 are currently living in state accommodation.  

Spain
On 21 April, Spain announced that it would be sending 200 tonnes of ammunition and military supplies to Ukraine. The shipment will include heavy transport vehicles and ammunition to defend against Russian forces. Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez added: The ship carries 30 trucks, several special heavy transport vehicles, and ten small vehicles loaded with the military material that will be transferred to Ukraine.This comes as the prime ministers of Denmark and Spain were visiting Kyiv to meet with Ukraines president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  

Sweden
On 21 April, a poll carried out by the polling institute Novus stated that 51 per cent of Sweden’s citizens favoured joining NATO. This is more than last weeks toll of 45 per cent.  

Latvia and Estonia
On 21 April, the parliaments of Estonia and Latvia announced that they would recognise Russia’s actions in Ukraine as genocide. The parliament of Estonia stated: These crimes are ideologically incited by Russias political and military leadership and its national propaganda authorities.A Latvian MP mentioned how the killings, torture, and abuse of the civilians in Ukraine were genocidal and urged the world to #StandupForUkraine.  

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Ethiopia
On 20 April, upon Russia’s offer to recruit soldiers to fight against Ukraine, numerous Ethiopian men lined up before the Russian embassy in Addis Ababa. The spokesperson of the embassy later cleared that the recruitment was rumour and said that there was no selection going on. She said: We have a lot of visitors to the embassy in order to express support for Russia. Some of them are telling us they are willing to help in any way they can. But we are not a recruitment agency. 

Fiji
On 20 April, a public prosecutor from Fiji disclosed that US has been attempting to seize a superyacht of a Russian oligarch who was subject to sanctions by the West. It has applied for a restraining order against the Russian and the ship that has been docked in the port. The US is yet to confirm on the same, but the penalty notice has been issued by authorities of Fiji. According to the police commissioner, upon fines becoming overdue, the captain will be taken into charge. 

Netflix
On 20 April, due to the war in Ukraine, Netflix for the first time reported a decrease in the count of subscribers in past 10 years. The company has also come under a suit by the Russian subscribers for blocking its service in Russia. 

WTA
On 21 April, the Women’s Tennis Association criticised the decision to ban players from Russia and Belarus from the Wimbledon tournaments. In the statement issued: of the WTA is that individual athletes may participate in professional tennis events based on merit and without any form of discrimination.The Association urged for allowing individual players to compete in the tournament and asked to not impose penalties on players for governments decisions. 

China
On 21 April, China’s minister of National Defence, general Wei Fenghe held a 45-minute call with the US defence secretary Lloyd Austin. Upon Austin stressing the significance of China not supplying weapons to Russia and in response, Fenghe said: If the Taiwan issue were not handled properly, it would have a damaging impact on Sino-US relations.The response comes as US sent arms to Taiwan to defend China in case of a conflict. 

On 21 April, Chinas President Xi Jinping stressed back Chinas opposition to the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia. China has not condemned the invasion of Russia and also continues to maintain economic trade with Russia.

MNCs
SpaceX company has provided Ukraine with increased internet connectivity and the civilians were provided full access. The Ukraine military said that, with access to speed internet, it was able to connect to satellites located in the low orbit. The minister of Digital Transformation said that there were currently 10,000 terminals installed in Ukraine, which has become the alternative to the damaged infrastructure. 

World Bank
On 21 April, World Bank president, David Malpass said that the organization was facing the worst food crisis due to the war in Ukraine. He said: “It's a human catastrophe, meaning nutrition goes down. But then it also becomes a political challenge for governments who can't do anything about it - they didn't cause it and they see the prices going up.The World Bank estimated that there was an increase of 37 per cent in food prices which has pushed many under the poverty line. He compared the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic to reflect the crisis situation being faced by the population who are in poverty. Another highlight was the rise in the unsustainable debt seen in the poorest countries, which are turning into a debt burden.

References: 
Ukraine situation: Flash Update #9,United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 21 April 2022
Ukraine can develop ‘maximum speed’ in joining the EU, Zelenskiy says – as it happened,” The Guardian, 21 April 2022
Joe Biden announces $800m in new arms supplies to Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022
Putin's claim to have 'liberated' Mariupol is disinformation, US says,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022 

US to accept up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees under new 'Uniting for Ukraine' programme,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022
"UK training Ukrainian soldiers to use British armoured vehicles,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022 
Britain has banned imports of caviar and other high-end products from Russia in the latest round of sanctions,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022
Ireland finds new ways to shelter refugees,” BBC Live, 21 April 2022 
Spanish PM: 200 tonnes of ammunition and military supplies sent to Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022 
Latvia and Estonia recognise Russia’s actions in Ukraine as ‘genocide’,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022 
A majority of people in Sweden are in favour of joining Nato,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022
The prime ministers of Spain and Denmark have arrived in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, to meet Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022 

Russia is closing the consulates of three ex-Soviet Baltic nations, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, the Russian foreign ministry said,” The Guardian Live, 21 April 2022 
Putin hails liberation of Mariupol, calls off operation to storm steel plant,” TASS, 21 April 2022
Russian defense minister reports to Putin on liberation of Mariupol,” TASS, 21 April 2022
Russia does not face risks of default — Bank of Russia,” TASS, 21 April 2022 
Diplomat says Russia-Ukraine talks continue in video format almost every day,” TASS, 21 April 2022
Russia to end special op after removing threats caused by NATO’s colonization of Ukraine,” TASS, 21 April 2022 
Russia to secure nuclear-free, neutral status of Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 21 April 2022
Russia bars entry to U.S. VP Harris, other U.S. officials and figures,” Reuters, 21 April 2022
Russia sanctions 61 Canadian officials, journalists, military experts,” Reuters, 21 April 2022
Russia draws up more restrictions for 'foreign agents’,” Reuters, 21 April 2022

BBC Live,” BBC, 21 April 2022
The Russia-Ukraine War: April 21, 2022,” WSJ, 21 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

NETHERLANDS
Parliament approves to equip unarmed military drones with weapons
On 21 April, the lower house of the parliament said it supported the call from the Commander of Armed forces to arm military drones. The MQ-9 Reaper drones were intended for surveillance over land and sea and were recently acquired. The lower parliament approved the resolution in a majority as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed the members’ perception of its use. However, the cabinet still has to approve the proposal. (“Parliament supports arming unmanned military drone,” NL Times, 21 April 2022)

UK
Boris Johnson visits Modi amidst rising scrutiny of “party gate” scandal
On 21 April, Boris Johnson has flown to India to meet with prime minister Modi, as investigations about his “partygate scandal” intensify in the UK. Johnson and Modi who will be meeting on 22 April will be discussing the Ukraine War, and a potential two-way investment deal worth more than EUR 1 billion, with the possibility of creating 11,000 jobs in Britain. This visit comes at a time when the police are investigating alleged instances of breaches to the lockdown rules by the prime minister and government offices. Johnson however said: "I don’t want this thing to endlessly go on. But, I have absolutely nothing, frankly, to hide." (“Boris Johnson seeks trade deal with India as 'partygate' scrutiny intensifies,” Deutsche Welle, 21 April 2022)

NORWAY
Norway’s prime minister apologises for a law that criminalised homosexuality
On 21 April Norway’s government issues an official apology for the law that criminalised homosexuality. Even though the law was scrapped in 1972, this apology that comes 50 years later was welcomed by the LGBTQ community and activists in the country. Prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre said: "Criminalising and prosecuting people for their love life, treating [medically] healthy people, depriving them of career and work opportunities are serious violations of our values." Norway incidentally was the second country to recognise civil partnerships for same-sex couples in 1993. Same-sex marriage was also given the same status as heterosexual marriages in 2009. (“Norway issues formal apology 50 years after decriminalising homosexuality,” Euronews, 21 April 2022)

REGIONAL
EU suggests working from home to reduce the region’s dependency on Russian energy
On 21 April, the EU asked its citizens to temporarily work from home as the International Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that it would save EUR 450 per household. This comes as the region needs time to find alternative supplies and thus is asking its citizens to adjust their lifestyles until then. The EU released a nine-point program that is titled “Playing My Part” for the people to support the bloc's efforts against Putin. Executive director of the IEA Fatih Birol said: “This guide has easy-to-follow steps that with little or no discomfort on our part can reduce the flow of money to Russia’s military and help put us on a path to a cleaner and more sustainable planet.” (Ben King, “Work from home to beat Putin, says EU,” BBC, 21 April 2022)


21 April 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #181

War in Ukraine: Day 56

Denmark plans to set up an asylum processing centre in Rwanda; Italy to reduce energy costs through temperature rationing

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 56
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground: 
Attacks in Azvstal steel and iron factory

Zelenskyy’s address
On 20 April, president Zelenskyy in his daily address spoke about his meet with the president of the European Council Charles Michel. Reportedly, they discussed the ways in which the European Union could help Ukraine, especially with defense, finances and with sanctions. They also spoke about the integration of Europe. Zelenskyy said: “This is the historic moment when we can develop maximum speed in joining the European Union. We have already proved that the Ukrainian state and public institutions are effective enough to withstand even the test of war. We are already doing as much to protect freedom on the European continent as other nations have never done.”

Mariupol
On 20 April, Ukraine Military reported on the assaults on the Azvstal steel and iron factory, where Ukraine’s troops and people remain trapped. The same was confirmed by deputy mayor of Mariupol, he said: “It’s mostly citizens of nearest destroyed buildings and a lot of workers of steel plants. They know that steel plants had good bomb shelter and some stocked food and water in the bomb shelter. That's why they decided with their families to live in this bomb shelter.” He added that Russia had set a new time of 1100 GMT for the Ukraine troops to surrender and the forces continue to fight against Russia. It was also reported that Russia had blocked all the supply corridors, to trap the people in Mariupol from water, food, medicine and any form of aid.

On 20 April, Ukraine said that Russia violated a ceasefire that had been decided upon to evacuate women, children and elderly people from Mariupol. Regional governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko said that fewer buses than had been decided upon could be evacuated. Deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk, who is in charge of these humanitarian corridors said they “did not work as planned today.” Ukraine’s troops in Mariupol have not stopped fighting even after Russia issued an ultimatum. Senior Ukrainian negotiators on the other hand said that they were open to holding special talks with Russia in Mariupol provided they are unconditional in nature.

Sloviansk
On 20 April, Ukrainian troops could stop the progress of Russian forces from Izyum in the northeast to Sloviansk. Ukraine’s presidential advisor commented on this and said: “They have focused their forces there, that is where they are trying to advance, but so far they are not succeeding.”

Other developments
Other cities in the east such as Donetsk, Tavriya, the village of Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk districts have been under attack by Russia’s military. It was confirmed that “twelve tanks, 28 armoured vehicles and one artillery system, and Ukraine's air force, one plane, one helicopter, six UAVs and a cruise missile,” were destroyed by Russia.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
 

Russian tycoon criticised the atrocities by Russian troops
On 20 April, Oleg Tinkov, a tycoon, lambasted Russia's role in the Ukrainian citizen massacre and called for an end to the war. After him, the businessman Boris Mint voiced his criticism of the president. Mint added: “every right-thinking person has a duty to speak out against this appalling war and Vladimir Putin’s growing authoritarianism.”  

Russia tests new intercontinental ballistic missile
On 20 April, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin was seen at the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile launch in Plesetsk. Putin said the missiles had “the highest tactical and technical characteristics”. He added that anyone who would make threats to Russia would now have to think twice. Putin further congratulated the Russian forces saying: “I congratulate you on the successful launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. It is a great and landmark event in the development of advanced weapon systems in the Russian army.”

Russia on draft agreement handed over to Ukraine on 15 April
On 20 April, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said they had not received any reaction from Ukraine on their draft agreement. She criticised the Kyiv regime’s negotiations team as they did not respond to Russia’s proposal. Zakharova further mentioned how Kyiv was debunking other issues than responding to Russia’s draft agreement.  

On the same day, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated: “We’ve said it repeatedly that the rate of work of the Ukrainian side leaves a lot to be desired, and the Ukrainian do not display great willingness to intensify the negotiations process.” He further accused the Ukrainians of backing out from previously achieved agreements or even their own words each time. This caused terrible consequences for the efficiency of the negotiations.  

Russia calls for probe into fake news of them using nukes in Ukraine
On 20 April, Zakharova called for action against the developers and customers of the fake news that stated Russia had used nuclear arms in Ukraine. She added: “Someone has been manufacturing these materials, and there must be someone who designed the concept. I think it would be correct and timely to look into the entire chain.” 

Medical gear supply from the West restored 
On 20 April, Russia was concerned about a potential shortage and a near-total collapse of the supply of essential medical devices as it depends on the West for its medical equipment, such as pacemakers and radiotherapy devices. Even though these devices and prescription drugs are exempted from the sanctions, their supply has been disrupted due to customs and insurance hurdles caused by the sanctions. 

Russia to sue Apple 
On 20 April, Russia’s lawyers mentioned that they would be suing Apple for shutting down its payment service in the country. The lawyers accused Apple of causing intentional moral damage to Russian users. Attorneys added: “…the amount of the recovery must be substantial in order to compensate for the moral damage caused.”

Peskov on Wimbledon 
On 20 April, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned Wimbledon that the tournament would be harmed if Russian players were banned. The Grand Slam tournaments are scheduled to run between June and July. The Wimbledon officials are hinting toward banning players from Russia and Belarus. Peskov added: “We reiterate that it is inadmissible to hold athletes hostage to various political beliefs, political intrigues and hostile behaviour in regard to our country. We can only regret this.” 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 20 April, in response to the launch of Russia’s ICBM with nuclear capacity, Pentagon said that the launch was not viewed as a threat and “It was not a surprise.” The launch strikes a warning signal as President Putin indicated as a threat to the western powers.

US Defence Department spokesperson, John Kirby confirmed the delivery of the additional aircraft and parts to Ukraine. He denied supplying complete aircraft, only spare part was being sent to Ukraine. It is also expected that the US will be sending helicopters soon to Ukraine.

Belarus
The Wimbledon organizers have accused Belarus of helping Russia invade and attack Ukraine from its region and banned the Belarusian tennis players from entering the tournaments. The ban will include the high-ranked player, Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus who ranks four in the women's category.

The UK
On 20 April, UK Defence Ministry in the update on Ukraine's ground situation stated that Ukraine forces were deterring Russia’s attempts, despite the shelling continuing to increase in the eastern Donbas. It observed that Russia’s forces faced “environmental, logistical and technical challenges,” which showed its inability to reach its targets rapidly.

The Ministry also found that Russia had positioned a new offensive on its eastern border with Ukraine. It warned that Russia could use its forces to break into the defence held by Ukraine. Apart from this it also tracked those offences in northern Ukraine were deteriorating due to the withdrawal of Russia’s forces. It said: “However, there is still a risk of precision strikes against priority targets throughout Ukraine. Russian attacks on cities across Ukraine show their intent to try and disrupt the movement of Ukrainian reinforcements and weaponry to the east of the country.”

Germany
Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock post her meeting, with the Latvian leader said: “"we have delivered anti-tank missiles, Stingers and other things that we have never spoken about publicly so these deliveries could happen quickly.” She assured that Germany will support Ukraine with advanced weapons and soldiers to help against the new offensive of Russia in the Donbas region. As per the statement released by the German Foreign Ministry: “Reaction from the EU, NATO and the international community to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.”

The EU
On 20 April, European Council president, Charles Michel tweeted after his visit to Ukraine and meeting with Zelenskyy. He said: “in the heart of a free and democratic Europe.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

China 
On 20 April, China criticised the west for providing weapons for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. China’s ambassador Zhang Jun added: “We call on Russia and Ukraine to adhere to the general direction of dialogue and negotiation, continuously narrow differences, and accumulate conditions for a ceasefire.” He further mentioned that providing Ukraine with weapons would only prolong and escalate the conflict.  

Meta
On 20 April, an appeal was made against Russia’s court banning Meta from operating in the country. The court accused Meta of operating in Russia on the grounds of extremist activity.  

The UN 
On 20 April, UN chief Antonio Guterres asked Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to receive him and discuss the possibility of peace. UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric mentioned that separate letters were handed to Russia and Ukraine. Dujarric added that Guterres wanted to also look at the future of multilateralism based on the Charter of the United Nations and international law.  

The UNHCR chief said: “Eight weeks into the conflict, we are at 5 million and counting, with 5 million unique stories of loss and trauma.” This comes as 218,000 third-country nationals, primarily students and migrant workers, have had to flee the country. The UN's International Organisation for Migration (IOM) said 7.1 million people were displaced inside Ukraine. 

G20
On 20 April, the US, France, the UK, and Canada finance ministers walked out of the G20 meeting as Russia’s representatives initiated to speak. Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “We are united in our condemnation of Russia’s war against Ukraine and will push for stronger international coordination to punish Russia.” Responding to the walk out staged by the countries, Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, urged the G20 group not to politicise the group’s work.  

IAEA
On 19 April, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was informed by the Ukrainian authorities that communications had been restored between the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and the state atomic power regulator. IAEA’s director general Rafael Grossi mentioned that the development was good news and added that he would lead a team to the plants and carry out a series of assessments. 

References: 
Today is a historic moment when Ukraine can develop maximum speed in joining the EU - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,President of Ukraine, 20 April 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Ukraine blames Russia as attempts to evacuate civilians from Mariupol fall short,” Reuters, 21 April 2022
Ukrainian forces stop Russian advance towards Sloviansk - presidential aide,Reuters, 20 April 2022
Michael Race, “Russian oligarch lambasts country's ‘massacre’,” BBC Live, 20 April 2022 
Russia says it has tested new intercontinental ballistic missile,” The Guardian Live, 20 April 2022 
Putin congratulates Armed Forces on successful launch of Sarmat ICBM,” TASS, 20 April 2022 
Russia handed over draft agreement to Ukraine on April 15, still no response — diplomat,” TASS, 20 April 2022 
"Russian diplomat calls for probe into fake news about potential use of nukes in Ukraine,” TASS, 20 April 2022 
"Wimbledon to feel the pain if Russian tennis players are barred, vows Kremlin,” TASS, 20 April 2022
Russia presented draft document with clear wording to Ukraine, expects response — Kremlin,” TASS, 20 April 2022 
"Russian lawyers to sue Apple for shutdown of payment service,” TASS, 20 April 2022 
Francesco Guarascio, “Risk of medical gear shortage in Russia falls as West restores exports,” Reuters, 20 April 2022 
BBC Live," BBC, 20 April 2022
German Foreign Minister Baerbock begins Baltic tour with promise of stronger support,” 20 April 2022
Latest News in the Russia-Ukraine War,” WSJ, 20 April 2022
Daphne Psaledakis, “U.N. chief separately asks Russia's Putin, Ukraine's Zelenskiy to receive him,” Reuters, 20 April 2022 
UK and US lead G20 walkout of finance ministers,” The Guardian Live, 20 April 2022 
G20 delegates to stage protests against Russia over Ukraine war,” The Guardian Live, 20 April 2022
More than 5 million have fled Ukraine since invasion, says UN,” The Guardian Live, 20 April 2022 
"China criticises west's provision of weapons and sanctions,” The Guardian Live, 20 April 2022 
Direct communications between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been restored,” Voice of America, 20 April 2022
Appeal against Meta's ban for 'extremism' launched in a Russian court, says Interfax agency,” Euronews, 20 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan

ITALY
Italy new rule to reduce air conditioning temperature in public buildings
On 21 April, Italy’s foreign minister announced a new rule restricting the school and public buildings to maintain the temperature of air conditioners below 25 degrees Celsius. The step of energy cutting is termed as “operation thermostat.” With this step, the government estimates to cut down 45 per cent of its natural gas. The decision was welcomed by the minister for public administration, stating it as a positive sign and saying it will result in reducing the energy cost of the public office buildings by 57 per cent. A representative of the Five Star Movement said: “It’s correct that the public administration is setting a good example, cutting waste and raising awareness among citizens about rationalising consumption. It’s a simple way to contribute and reduce dependency on gas.” (“Italy puts 25C limit on air conditioning as Ukraine crisis forces energy rationing.” The Guardian, 21 April 2022)

ENERGY
Germany and the Netherlands are closer to extracting gas from the Wadden Islands

On 21 April, due to the rising energy crisis from the Ukraine war, a German and Netherlands company called the ONE-Dyas has come closer to extracting natural gas through drilling in the Wadden Sea. According to the minister of economic affairs, Netherlands and Germany have a long term supply contract that does not account Groningen gas field. It is located above the Wadden Islands and contains a sea bed that has “low-calorific gas, suitable for households.” The extraction is expected to begin in two years’ time and the area expands to 60 billion cubic meters. (“Germany, Netherlands closer to drilling new natural gas field in Wadden Sea,” NL Times, 20 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Denmark to also set up an asylum processing centre in Rwanda
On 20 April, Denmark mentioned that it was planning to set up a reception centre for asylum seekers in Rwanda after the UK. Denmark’s integration minister Mattias Tesfaye said: “Denmark has good cooperation with Rwanda, based on a broad partnership…We have been in close dialogue to further strengthen our partnership.” However, human rights groups and opposition politicians have condemned the proposals as unethical. Denmark’s government said that it would have a “more dignified approach.” (“Denmark in talks with Rwanda over processing of asylum seekers,” Euronews, 20 April 2022)


20 April 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #180

War in Ukraine: Day 55

Spain approves cannabis pilot project; Cyprus installs electronic surveillance system on the northern border; Emmanuel Macron leads polls; World leaders contemplate protest against Russia

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 55
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
Zelenskyy’s address
On 19 April, President Zelenskyy talked about the escalating Russian offensive in the eastern parts of the country, especially in the Kharkiv, Donbas and Dnipropetrovsk regions. He referred to how destructive the Russian forces were, and said: “They still consider ordinary housing infrastructure normal targets for them. In this war, the Russian army will forever inscribe itself in world history as perhaps the most barbaric and inhuman army in the world.”

Donbas
On 19 April, the Russian attack on the Donbas line of control continued its escalation, even though the Ukrainian forces managed to repel several advances. UK Defence said that the Russian offensive has been somewhat impacted by the environmental, logistical and technical challenges that the region offers along with the determination of the highly motivated Ukrainian Army.

Kreminna
On 19 April, Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of the Luhansk region said in a briefing that the Kreminna in the eastern part of Ukraine has been occupied by the Russian forces. Kreminna which has a population of 18,000 people becomes the first city to fall to the Russians since their renewed offensive in the east of Ukraine. 

Other developments
On 19 April, the deputy prime minister of Iryna Vereshchuk reported that Russia has over 60 soldiers and 16 civilians to Ukraine. She said: "This was the fifth exchange of prisoners of war. A total of 76 people.” This swap also included 10 Ukrainian officers. Vereshchuk also informed that no humanitarian corridors had been established for the third consecutive day due to rising Russian offensive making it difficult to conduct negotiations.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin’s decree
On 18 April, Russia President Vladimir Putin signed a decree titling the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade “Guards” for their heroism and courage in a war in Bucha. Along with this he also announced an additional pay-out of USD 62000 for the soldiers who are serving in the Ukraine war within the eastern Ukraine borders. According to TASS: “in order to provide additional measures of social support to service personnel of the border agencies of the Federal Security Service and members of their families.”

Russia Foreign Ministry
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that the “next phase” of Russia’s operations had begun. He also affirmed that Russia will use only “conventional weapons,” on the question of the possibility of using nuclear weapons. He said: “The real reason is the complacency of most countries in the world after the end of World War II when our Western colleagues led by the United States declared themselves the winners, and in violation of their promises to the Soviet and Russian leadership, [they] started moving NATO eastward.”

On 18 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry expelled all employees in Dutch, Austrian and Belgian embassies as a counter to the European country's move in expelling Russia’s diplomats. This includes 15 Dutch diplomats, four Austrian diplomats and several Belgian employees.

Other developments
On 18 April, Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia was preparing for a lawsuit against the frozen assets, gold and foreign currency reserves in the West. She commented: “unprecedented on a global scale.” No further details were given on how Russia would approach the lawsuit, but Russia’s Finance Ministry estimated USD 300 billion to be frozen in Russia’s gold and currency reserves.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 19 April, the US said it was planning to seize a superyacht Amadea which was docked in the Pacific Island nation of Fiji. The yacht is suspected of belonging to Suleiman Kerimov, a Russian oligarch sanctioned by the US and EU. Fiji’s director of public prosecutions, Christopher Pryde, filed an application to prevent the yacht from leaving Fiji.   

On the same day, US president Joe Biden at an event mentioned that he was unsure if he would visit Kyiv. His comments come as Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy urged him to visit the country depending on the safety situation. 

Also, on 19 April, reports stated that Biden would be announcing another USD 800 million military aid package for Ukraine. Last week, he announced a similarly sized package and sent Ukraine artillery systems, artillery rounds, armoured personnel carriers and unmanned coastal defence boats. The new package would bring the US military aid to a total of USD three billion. 

The UK
On 19 April, the UK said it had only delivered GBP 60 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine until 01 April. Commons international development committee chairwoman said she was disappointed at the speed the aid was being delivered as only GBP 60 million was dispersed out of the GBP 220 million. She said that it was shocking and disappointing as the people needed the help immediately. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss mentioned that the delivery would be expedited. 

On the same day, the defence ministry stated that they would be sending armoured missile launchers to Ukraine. This would help Ukraine to resist the Russian forces and take control of the eastern region. Truss also mentioned that the UK would be stepping up their supply of arms. 

Boris Johnson called on the world leaders and reiterated a critical need for military support to Ukraine. Johnson said: “The leaders agreed to work together to find a long-term security solution so that Ukraine could never be attacked in this way again. They discussed the need to increase the pressure on Russia with more sanctions against Putin’s war machine, as well as further diplomatic isolation.” 

On 19 April, UK’s top negotiator, Mykhailo Podolyak, who is also a political advisor to Zelenskyy said that Kyiv and Moscow had not had face-to-face talks since March 29. He also mentioned that given the situation in Mariupol and failing to arrange for humanitarian corridors, the situation regarding peace talks has gotten more complicated. 

France
On 19 April, France’s president Emmanuel Macron stated that his dialogue with Putin had stalled since the mass killings were discovered in Ukraine. He added: “Since the massacres we have discovered in Bucha and in other towns, the war has taken a different turn, so I did not speak to him again directly since, but I don’t rule out doing so in the future.” 

Moldova 
On 19 April, Moldova’s president Maia Sandu urged the people and opposition politicians to refrain from using any Russian symbols during the celebrations that marked their victory in the second world war. Her calls came as the country protested against Russian troops killing Ukrainian civilians. Sandu added: “It is impossible to combine in the same symbol the memory of lives given for peace and the current inhumane war.” 

Spain 
On 19 April, Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he would be visiting Kyiv soon. He said that his visit would be a symbol of showing Spain’s commitment to the Ukrainian people and government. 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Japan
On 19 April, Japan announced that it would send masks and clothing designed to protect Ukrainians from chemical weapons and drones attacks. This would be a part of Tokyo’s latest shipment consisting of defence supplies, NBC suits, NBC masks and drones. 

Ethiopia 
On 19 April, Ethopians stormed the Russian embassy at Addis Ababa at a rumour that stated Russia was recruiting soldiers to fight in the war in Ukraine. The embassy’s spokeswoman, Maria Chernukhina clarified that this was not true; however, she added that the crowd showed their solidarity with Russia. 

The UN
On 19 April, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for a four-day Orthodox Easter humanitarian ceasefire. He said: “Humanitarian needs are dire. People do not have food, water, supplies to treat the sick or wounded or simply to live day-to-day.” He further mentioned how a humanitarian pause would help create a safe passage for civilians willing to leave the conflict.  

IMF
On 19 April, the IMF said it had cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine. In its half-yearly reports, the IMF said it had worsened significantly in the past three months as it reduced from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent. The organisation further mentioned that all members of the G7 would grow less rapidly and could even experience a significant risk. 

WHO
On 19 April, WHO’s director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus condemned the attacks on healthcare workers and provisions in Ukraine. He said: "WHO unequivocally condemns the continued increase in attacks on health care in Ukraine. They must stop. To date, WHO has verified 147 attacks, including 73 people killed, and 53 injured. War will not be a solution. Once again, I call on Russia to end the war.” 

References
If our partners have the weapons Ukraine needs, their duty is to help protect freedom and the lives of people - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 19 April, 2022
Ukraine says Mariupol 'tragedy' complicates peace efforts with Russia,Reuters, 19 April 2022
Russian shelling increasing in Donbas, UK military update says,” Reuters, 20 April 2022
Ukraine says no safe corridors agreed for third successive day,Reuters, 19 April 2022
Ukraine receives 76 Ukrainan prisoners of war in swap with Russia,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
Regional governor says Russian forces have seized east Ukrainian city of Kreminna,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
Latest News in the Russia-Ukraine War,” WSJ, 19 April 2022
Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 19 April 2022
Ukraine war: Only third of UK’s £220m humanitarian aid delivered by 1 April,” BBC Live, 19 April 2022 
Biden ‘to announce another $800m military aid package’,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022 
Joe Biden says he does not know if he will visit Kyiv,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022 
The US is reportedly seeking to seize a superyacht suspected of belonging to a Russian oligarch that is docked in the Pacific island nation of Fiji,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Boris Johnson reiterated a “critical need” for further military support for Ukraine in his earlier video call with Joe Biden and other world leaders,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022 
Britain to send armoured missile launchers to Ukraine - reports,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Macron says his dialogue with Putin has stalled,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
The UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, has called for a four-day Orthodox Easter humanitarian pause in fighting in Ukraine, Reuters reports,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Larry Elliott, “The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia’s invasion could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022 
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), has condemned attacks on healthcare workers and provisions in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Japan will send masks and clothing designed to protect against chemical weapons as well as drones to Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Kalkidan Yibeltal, “Ethiopians queue at Russia embassy to enlist for war,” BBC Live, 19 April 2022


 

IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

CYPRUS
Plans to install an electronic surveillance system to monitor migrant crossings
On 19 April, the government spokesperson, Marios Pelekanos, announced that they would be installing an electronic surveillance system in the country. This would be installed along the buffer zone that divides the island nation along ethnic lines. The system would help the government monitor illegal immigration through the breakaway north. Between 2021-and 2022, migrants crossing from the Turkish-Cypriot north to the internationally-recognised Greek-Cypriot south rose by 184 per cent. Pelekanos urged the EU to help with financial and material support for the project. (Menelaos Hadjicostis, “Cyprus plans surveillance system to stem migrant crossings,” Associated Press, 19 April 2022)

SWITZERLAND 
Authorities approve cannabis pilot project
On 19 April, Switzerland approved the first cannabis pilot project and allowed a few hundred people from Basel to participate. Currently, growing, importing, producing and selling cannabis is banned in the country. The federal office of public health said that the project would help people understand “alternative regulatory forms,” that could be used as the basis for future legislation. The people consuming the substance would be regularly questioned, and their physical and mental health will be checked. However, if the cannabis from the pilot projects is sold, the people involved will be penalised and taken out of the projects. (“Swiss authorities clear 1st cannabis sale pilot project,” Associated Press, 19 April 2022)

FRANCE
Emmanuel Macron leads in polls ahead of second-round runoff
On 19 April, three polls conducted for the second round runoff came to the conclusion that president Emmanuel Macron has a lead over his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen. France will have their presidential runoff vote on Sunday, Macron got an average score of 55.83% in the polls. Prime minister Jean Castex however said, "The game is not done and dusted." Both the contenders are looking to attract those voters who voted for far-left leader Jean Luc Melenchon, who with 22% came third in the first round. Even Melenchos has not asked his followers to vote for Macron, he did say that voting for Le Pen would be a ‘colossal mistake’ (“Macron's polling lead over Le Pen widens ahead of France's Sunday runoff,” Reuters, 19 April, 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
World leaders plan to walk out at the G20 meeting as a protest against Russia
On 19 April, Reuters reported that western countries are planning to coordinate a walk-out or similar snubs, as a mark of protest against Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Washington. German, US, British and French officials have spoken about their disapproval about the attendance of the Russian delegation. This however brings up the issue of how effective G20 can be if there are such deep fault lines amongst the member nations.MF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said: "One scenario is one where we have divided blocs that are not trading much with each other, that are on different standards, and that would be a disaster for the global economy." (Andrea Shalal and David Lawder, “Delegate protests over Russia to upstage G20 meeting,” Reuters, 20 April 2022)


19 April 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #179

War in Ukraine: Day 54

Spain’s government's use of Pegasus was confirmed; Northern Ireland arrests five-under terrorism act

Photo : REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko/File Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 54
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
Zelenskyy’s address
On 18 April, president Zelenskyy talked about the increasing offensive in the Donbas region of Ukraine and said that it was the beginning of the “Battle of Donbas.” He said: It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. A very large part of the entire Russian army is now focused on this offensive.” But he also clarified that Ukraine is not planning to be intimidated by what is to come and that they will keep on fighting and defending their land. 

Chief of staff’s message
On 18 April, Ukraine's presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak said: "the second phase of the war has started.” This is in reference to Russia’s aggression in the Donbas region. He however emphasized the strength of the army and how they could hold off the offensive. 

Lviv
On 18 April, the relatively safer city of Lviv reported missile strikes. In the Western part of the country, Lviv has been a city for people searching for refuge from the regions under active war, humanitarian organisations and media personnel. Ukraine’s officials have said that seven people died and 11 people were injured as a result of four missiles hitting the city.

Mariupol
On 18 April, the city council of Mariupol said that around 1,000 civilians are hiding in underground shelters beneath the vast Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. Street battles are also taking place in the city as Russian forces try to take full control over the region.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
 

Putin on the economic blitzkrieg by the West
On 18 April, Russia's president Vladimir Putin said the economic blitzkrieg launched by the West to destabilise the economy with sanctions had failed. He said: "The situation is stabilising, the ruble exchange rate has returned to the levels of the first half of February and is supported by a strong balance of payments." He added how the sanctions were released to quickly undermine the economy, create panic, and trigger a banking system collapse. But the economic policies of Russia were able to withstand the blitzkrieg. 

Russian economy
On 18 April, Putin noted that the country's economic situation was stabilising as unemployment remained low. Concerning the Ruble, he said: "Russia has withstood this unprecedented pressure. The situation is stabilising, the Ruble's exchange rate has returned to the levels of the first half of February and is being defined by the objectively strong payment balance."   

On the same day, Putin regarding inflation mentioned how even that was stabilising. He said: "consumer prices grew notably over the last 1.5 months - by 9.4%, while in annual terms as of 8 April inflation amounted to 17.5%." 

Implications of sanctions on the West
On 18 April, Putin claimed that the sanctions by Western countries were deteriorating their own economies. This comes as Putin mentioned how Russia was able to stabilise inflation and that the retail demand in the country had normalised. 

At the same time, Putin also mentioned the increase in assistance to entrepreneurs to help them solve the hindrances created by Western sanctions. In addition, he mentioned that the government is looking to stabilise the financial system at the federal and regional levels.

Report on foreign mercenaries in Ukraine
On 18 April, Russia released a report that stated 6,824 foreign mercenaries from 63 countries had come to Ukraine to fight alongside the government of Zelenskyy. The report mentioned that 1,035 fighters were "destroyed" while thousands remain. In addition, Russia says that about 400 foreign fighters were holed up in Mariupol along with nationalist and neo-nazi fighters. 

The Donbas offensive
On 18 April, the buildup in the eastern city of Izyum was a sign of a possible upcoming offensive by the Russian forces. The article by the Moscow Times reported on how the army was facing issues of declining morale, continuing counterattacks by Ukrainian forces and disrupted supply lines that could cause difficulties to reach their goal in Donbas. Furthermore, according to the institute of war: "Military reversals are likely to have a significant impact on Russian morale." 

Missiles launched on Ukrainian military
On 18 April, Russia said it had launched multiple missile strikes overnight on Ukrainian targets. They claimed to have hit targets in the southern region of Ukraine and destroyed 16 military facilities, fire command posts, a fuel depot and three ammunition warehouses. The strikes were carried out in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and in the port of Mykolayiv. 

Claims by the Russian defence ministry 
On 18 April, the defence ministry claimed that Ukraine was plotting to shell Orthodox churches and cathedrals in various regions of Ukraine. The ministry accused Ukraine of planning "monstrous provocations" to cause civilian deaths, which would be used to portray Russian forces in a bad light. It asserted that it had evidence for its claims but did not provide anything.  

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeyemo, in his recent speech, forecasted the next possible steps that can be taken by Russia. He said with economic sanctions being imposed to slow down Russia’s progress on the ground, to go next step, he recommended: “Even as we continue to pursue rigorous financial sanctions against Russia and its key financial institutions, the next phase of our work will be to take apart Russia’s war machine, piece by piece, by disrupting their military-industrial complex and its supply chains.” He added that the US was imposing sanctions accordingly aiming at Russia’s aerospace, electronics and defence to block Russia’s military from restocking, and rebuilding.

On 18 April, the US Defense Department confirmed Russia’s airstrikes on Lviv city using “air-launched cruise missiles.” The Pentagon confirmed that the missiles targeted ammunition depots and observed that the strikes aimed at blocking Ukraine’s capacity from restoring combat forces ahead of the eastern offensive. It also expects to train the Ukraine troops with howitzers in the coming days.

The UK
On 18 April, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on renewed shelling in the western Ukraine cities of Kyiv and Lviv. It said that there had been severe casualties in Mariupol and accused Russia of targeted shelling in populated areas such as Chechnya and Syria. Till now Russia has denied all such targeting.

NATO
On 18 April, NATO has scheduled to conduct its cyber defence exercise by engaging its alliance countries and Ukraine. The Annual cyber exercise is called as Locked Shields exercise, which will begin in Estonia. As part of the routine, fictional cyber-attack exercises will be tested under a time target. International policy adviser in the cyber policy unit of Estonia’s ministry of defence, Anett Numa said: “Like-minded countries have to work together in order to protect themselves.” The NATO Cyber Security Centre chief, Ian West remarked on the effectiveness of the exercise, highlighting the participation of cyber techies from different countries to exchange about various types of attacks and technology products.

EU
On 18 April, the EU’s ambassador in Ukraine, Matti Maasikas said that the EU membership questionnaire was completed and returned in just 10 days’ time. Similarly, Georgia and Moldova have submitted their questionnaires.

Finland
Post Finland's announcement to join NATO has led to the withdrawal of many foreign investors has been observed. The move comes due to fear of safety and stability of operations. It was seen that the businesses were transferred from the Nordic to the Baltic States. According to Finland’s president: “All these alternatives have an advantage that our security will improve. Or we make sure that our stability remains and that we can make sure we live in [a] secure environment. Our main headline is: Finnish security.”

Turkey
The relations between Turkey and the US have taken a shift due to the war in Ukraine. Since Joe Biden became president, the relations between both countries were on deteriorating. It has taken a turning point with the US decision to send Turkey the F-16 fighter jets along with modernization kits as the US considers the rising security threat of Russia in the region. The former foreign minister of Turkey, Yasar Yakis said: “The Turkish-US negotiations on F-16s look like a breakthrough in the relations between these two NATO allies, but one swallow does not make a summer.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Egypt
To suit its demand for wheat, Egypt has shifted its import contract from Russia and Ukraine wheat to India. The same was confirmed by commerce minister Piyush Goyal. Therefore Egypt will import close to 240,000 tonnes of wheat out of one million tonnes in total from India. Goyal said: “Indian farmers are feeding the world. Egypt approves India as a wheat supplier. Modi Govt. steps in as the world looks for reliable alternate sources for a steady food supply. Our farmers have ensured our granaries overflow and we are ready to serve the world.”

UNHCR
UNHCR reported that more than 4.9 million Ukrainians had left the country, the count has increased along with the internally displaced people. The UNHCR, head said: “The Ukrainian government was fast to adapt its social protection programmes and IDP registration to respond to the emerging needs. But a crisis of this magnitude needs everyone’s support. This partnership will further strengthen our collective efforts to help displaced people access assistance and services, and rebuild their lives wherever they have found safety in the country.” On the count of internally displaced, close to 7.1 million is estimated by UNHCR. She stressed on supplying emergency service and needed items that include doors, blankets, mattresses and items for personal hygiene in six areas of Donetsk and Kramatorsk regions. According to International Organization for Migration (IOM), those who fled the country included majorly students and migrant workers.

References: 
We, the world and history will take from Russia much more than Russian missiles will take from Ukraine - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 18 April 2022
Maria Starkova and Pavel Polityuk, “Ukraine says Russia begins eastern offensive, missiles kill 7 in Lviv,Reuters, 19 April 2022
Second phase of war has started, says Ukraine president's chief of staff,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
At least 1,000 civilians hiding under Ukrainian stronghold steel plant in Mariupol- city council,Reuters, 18 April 2022
Western ‘economic blitzkrieg’ has failed – Putin,” RT News, 18 April 2022
Russia publishes data on foreign mercenaries in Ukraine,” RT News, 18 April 2022 
Losses, Morale and Counterattacks Stymie Russia’s Donbas Offensive,” The Moscow Times, 18 April 2022 
Putin says Western countries have hurt their own economies with sanctions,” Reuters, 18 April 2022 
Russia says it launched mass strikes on Ukrainian military overnight,” Reuters, 18 April 2022
Meeting on economic issues,” Kremlin.ru, 18 April 2022
Situation in Russian economy, ruble’s exchange rate stabilizing, says Putin,” TASS, 18 April 2022
Finland Witnesses Withdrawal Of Investors & Businesses Over Risk Escalation With Russia,” Republic World, 18 April 2022
Turkey and US move closer to the same wavelength,” Arab News, 18 April 2022
NATO Cyber Game Tests Defenses Amid War in Ukraine,” WSJ, 18 April 2022
Michael R. Gordon, “Pentagon Sees Lviv Strike as Part of Russia ‘Shaping Operations’,” WSJ, 18 April 2022
Remarks by Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.” U.S Department of Treasury, 18 April 2022
Egypt approves India as wheat supplier; to import about one million tonnes,” Hellenic Shipping News, 18 April 2022
Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine and UNHCR Ukraine Representative sign agreement to expand displaced persons’ access to social protection including cash assistance – UNHCR Ukraine,” UKRINFORM, 18 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

NORTHERN IRELAND
Five protestors were arrested under the terrorism act
On 19 April, at the Easter parade linked to dissident republicans, five men were arrested under the terrorism act in Londonderry. The parade was planned by the National Republican Commemoration Committee, which had held the parade on behalf of the anti-agreement republican party, Saoradh. Saoradh is also linked to the New Irish Republican Army. The demonstrators attacked the police with petrol bombs during their operation at the City Cemetery. Concerning the arrests, the police said: “Police monitored the event closely and, at what was considered to be an appropriate point, took action to secure evidence and make arrests.” (“Londonderry: Five Terrorism Act arrests at parade,” BBC, 19 April 2022)

SPAIN
Citizen Lab confirms the use of Pegasus by the government
On 19 April, leaders of the movement for Catalan independence accused the government of Spain of spying on them by using the Pegasus software. A report by Citizen Lab found that the software was installed on the phones of 60 leaders between 2017 and 2020, during the low point of relations between Barcelona and Madrid. Former Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said: We have been spied on in a huge and illegal manner through software that only states can possess.” Puigdemont accused incumbent prime minister Pedro Sanchez and former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of spying on him and their leaders belonging to the movement. (“Catalan independence leaders accuse Spain of mass surveillance campaign,” Deutsche Welle, 19 April 2022) 


18 April 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #178

War in Ukraine: Day 52 & 53

Germany’s Easter marches call for peace Violence erupts over the burning of Quran in Sweden; Le Pen accused of embezzlement ahead of the second round of the election

Photo : REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko


War in Ukraine: Day 52 & 53
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
Zelenskyy’s address
On 16 April president Zelenskyy spoke about negotiation with Russia and said it has reached a “dead end because we will not trade our territory and our people.” He spoke about reconstruction efforts, and how this moment in history can be considered a turning point to rebuild the country, only better. He said, “we can make quality urban planning where it did not exist. We can take into account real traffic flows. Guarantee energy saving, environmental friendliness of materials, and inclusiveness. This is when it comes to the organization of living space and the quality of reconstruction.” He also mentioned housing queues and giving back to the people who work for society. Zelenskyy mentioned that he had spoken to both Boris Johnson and the Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson on further support for Ukraine and against Russia.

On 17 April Zelenskyy addressed the growing Russian aggression at the eastern cities of Kharkiv and Mariupol. He said: “This is nothing but deliberate terror: mortars, artillery against ordinary residential quarters, against ordinary civilians.” 

Zelenskyy also spoke with the managing director of IMF Kristalina Georgieva, about Ukraine's financial stability and post-war reconstruction. He said that he had a fruitful conversation with the managing director about Ukraine’s post-war financial stability. He assured that if IMF’s cooperation is present, his plans and vision for the country will also be relaised.  "Discussed with IMF Managing Director Georgieva the issue of ensuring Ukraine's financial stability & preparations for post-war reconstruction. We have clear plans for now, as well as a vision of prospects. I’m sure cooperation between the IMF & Ukraine will continue to be fruitful."

Kyiv
On 16 April, the attack on Kyiv intensified further. Even though the Russians had withdrawn at Kyiv, they renewed their attack on the capital city, recently after their Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva sunk. Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged residents to be vigilant and strikes occurred in the southeastern part of the city and air raids went off in the morning.

On 17 April, a missile attack in the early hours of Sunday in Brovary, near Ukraine's capital of Kyiv destroyed infrastructure in the area. The mayor of Irpin, to the west of Kyiv said that Russian forces have destroyed 70 per cent of the buildings in the town. The mayor, Oleksandr Markushin said that as per an UN study, 115 buildings were completely destroyed, 698 suffered significant damage, and 187 were partially damaged. 

Kharkiv
On 16 April, the Russian offensive continued in Kharkiv. The regional major reported that one person was killed and 18 were wounded by a Russian missile. 

On 17 April Zelenskyy reported that in the last four days, 18 people have been killed and more than 100 wounded in shelling in Kharkiv. A community kitchen, by the World Central Kitchen, set up by celebrity chef José Andrés was amongst the buildings that was destroyed by Russian bombing. They have been operating kitchens in 30 cities in Ukraine, and providing nearly 300,000 meals daily.

Mykolaiv
On 17 April, the governor of the Mykolaiv region said that the city has been witnessing constant rocket attacks since the morning. Reportedly, the Russians have been attacking the power grids, houses, as well as playgrounds. The governor, Vitaly Kim said: “They [Russian forces] can't advance in one day, even in one a week, they can’t advance and reach Mykolaiv. So people will have some time to leave Mykolaiv, if it becomes dangerous. And if I see it becoming dangerous in the city, I will tell everyone to leave.”

Mariupol
On 16 April Russian forces in Mariupol issued a surrender-or-die ultimatum by 17 April This is in light of the fact that they have been closing in on Ukraine’s troops in order to establish control on the strategically important port city.  

On 17 April, Ukraine’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal however said that troops in Mariupol were still fighting despite the ultimatum. He mentioned that Ukraine’s soldiers continue to occupy some southeastern parts of the city.

Other developments
On 16 April, Iryna Vereshchuk, the deputy prime minister said that nine humanitarian corridors had been agreed upon in order to evacuate civilians, including from the besieged city of Mariupol by private cars. Five of those nine corridors were from Luhansk region, which has been under heavy shelling.

On 17 April, Ukraine and Russia failed to agree on humanitarian convoys for the evacuation of civilians, and as a result no humanitarian corridors were made functional on Sunday. Vereschuk said that they have also asked for an opportunity to evacuate civilians from the besieged port of Mariupol.

Ukraine also completed a questionnaire that will be a starting point for the EU to consider their membership. This questionnaire was given to Zelenskyy by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, when she visited Kyiv on 08 April.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russia Defence Ministry
On 17 April, Russia issued a warning to the Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol. It threatened the soldiers to surrender to avoid being “eliminated.” Russia’s Defense Ministry pointed that the Ukraine forces located in the steel plant of Mariupol had rejected the talks to surrender and it warned saying: “In case of further resistance, all of them will be eliminated.” Capturing Mariupol means Russia will have control to build a bridge between the east and Crimea.

On 16 April, the Defense Ministry claimed of destroying military troops in Kyiv and Mykolaiv as a counter to the missile hit on Moskva, Russia’s cruise missile ship. It also reported on attacking one of the military plants outside Kyiv and killing people in Kharkiv using a rocket. Apart from this Russia claimed that it had circled the steel plant in Mariupol where Ukraine forces are observed to be defending. The same was confirmed by major general. Igor Konashenkov, who stated that 2,500 Russia’s troops had circled the steel plant. He said: “The only chance to save their lives is to voluntarily lay down their arms and surrender.”

Other developments
On 16 April, Russia announced a ban on UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson and imposed sanctions on U.K. foreign secretary Liz Truss, defence secretary Ben Wallace, treasury chief Rishi Sunak and home secretary Priti Patel. It further added Scotland’s first minister and former UK prime minister. As per the ministry, the decision comes as a response to UK’s attempts in isolating Russia from the international and for trying to target its domestic economy.

Upon Finland and Sweden approaching NATO to submit its applications for future membership, Russia warned on unintentional incidents in the Arctic. Russia’s representative to Arctic Council’s said: “The internationalization of military activity by the alliance in the high latitudes cannot but cause concern.” Earlier, Russia threatened on using nuclear if Finland and Sweden joined NATO. 

The governor of St. Petersburg gave a statement confirming the death of Russia’s general, Vladimir Frolov. There were no further details, till now seven generals have been recorded to have died in the war.

The West view:
Responses from Europe

The EU
On 17 April, the EU announced EUR 50 million aid to support people injured during the war. It will be used for medical services, ensure safe drinking water, shelter and help those hurt by gender violence.

Austria
On 17 April, Austria’s chancellor Karl Nehammer expressed on the meeting with Putin. He assured that Austria will cooperate with ICC for investigation into the war crimes and also said he does not trust the West. Nehammer also remarked that although Russia does not seem to be winning the war, he observed from the meeting that Putin was believing Russia to be winning.

Italy and Bulgaria
On 17 April, Italy and Bulgaria banned Russian ships from entering their national ports to abide by the recent sanctions levied by the EU. Although the supplies on energy and food have been excepted, the Italy Coast Guard issued a statement saying all the ships with Russian flags will be under the rule and existing ships in the Italian ports will be allowed to remain till the commercial activities are completed. Similar to Italy, Bulgaria also imposed the port ban. In terms of the EU, the sanctions imposed provide exceptions for certain products such as natural gas, oil, petroleum products, metals, pharmaceuticals, wheat, fertilizers, nuclear fuel and for humanitarian purposes.

Estonia
According to the Estonia Information System Authority (RIA) head, Lauri Tankler reported on Estonia’s vulnerable position on the cyber domain. Tankler said that Tankler had become the biggest target due to its supporting stance for Ukraine. It is being targeted using misinformation campaigns, which urges people to click and through which the malware steels information to use to spread false information.

Netherlands
On 17 April, the Dutch Ministry of Defense sent its Patriot missile unit to Slovakia as part of the NATO eastern flank reinforcement. The supply comes due to colliding of five vehicles from a convoy due to poor sight and bad roads. It announced further supply of 150 personnel to strengthen Slovakia, apart from this, Netherlands has also vowed to join with Germany in boosting the air defence of the country.

The UK
On 17 April, UK Defence Ministry tweeted that Russia was keen on persuading Ukraine in restraining its “Euro-Atlantic orientation,” and to focus on its key role in the region. It added that, Russia was deploying combat and equipment to the east of Ukraine from Belarus and has been constantly shelling through the east with renewed attacks.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

India
On 17 April, India's defence ministry stated that the impact of the Russian war on Ukraine would be discussed at the five-day Army Commanders' Conference in New Delhi. The defence ministry stated: "During the conference, the senior leadership of the Indian Army will review the operational situation along the active borders, assess threats in the entire spectrum of conflict and undertake analysis of capability voids to further focus on capability development and operational preparedness plans." 

On 16 April, India's Agricultural and Processed Food Products Exports Development Authority (APEDA) announced that it would set a record for exports of wheat to become a global supplier. The war in Ukraine led to the shortage of wheat from the world's breadbasket and has been a significant concern for countries that rely on wheat imports. The APEDA would be sending delegations to Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Lebanon to extend the possibility of increasing Indian exports of wheat to these countries. Egypt, one of the world's largest wheat importing countries, has already sent officials to India to monitor the export systems. 

Nepal
On 15 April, a report by Deutsche Welle mentioned that the war in Eastern Europe intensified Nepal's economic crisis. Nepal does not have strong economic ties with both Russia and Ukraine. But, the global implications of war, the rising fuel and food costs have deepened the economic crisis in the country. The war has also discouraged tourists and the tourism industry, which was already weakened by the pandemic. Furthermore, the fall in remittances, a trade deficit and depletion of foreign reserves are other reasons for the economic situation. 

China
On 16 April, concerns arose about China's investments in Russia's Bashkortostan region as the war continued. The project was earlier stalled due to budget issues, the COVID-19 pandemic and local protests. With the sanctions in place by Western countries, the project has again received a setback and is likely to perish due to the uncertainities. 

Japan
On 16 April, in a united effort, Japan and five Central Asian countries pledged to communicate their responses to the war in Ukraine closely. Japan's Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said: "The international community needs to keep in step to deal with (the Ukrainian crisis)." The foreign ministers of Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met virtually to discuss the war in Ukraine and celebrate the 30th anniversary of Japan's establishment of diplomatic ties with the five Central Asian countries. 

Central Asia
On 17 April, a report by Eurasiareview highlighted that the war in Ukraine meant that Russia would be less focused on the central Asian countries. In addition, it talked about how Russia's security guarantees for Central Asian states and the members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) would have implications due to the war.  

The UN
On 16 April, the UN stated that another 40,000 had fled the country as the war escalated with the recent attacks on Kyiv. The UN also mentioned that nearly five million people who have fled Ukraine would not have homes to return to. France24 reported: "The UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) says nearly 215,000 third-country nationals -- largely students and migrant workers -- have also escaped to neighbouring countries, meaning more than five million people in all have fled Ukraine since the war began."

World Food Programme 
On 16 April, the World Food Programme (WFP) mentioned that it had delivered aid to 1.4 million people in Ukraine since the war began. It further mentioned that it would need safe access to deliver the additional aid to 2.3 million people. But, unfortunately, they were not allowed to access Mariupol due to the selling. Concerning Mariupol and Mykolaiv WFP, executive director David Beasley said: "It's one thing when people are suffering from the devastation of war. It's another thing when they're being starved to death." 

References: 
We are fighting for a free future and the development of our country – the address of the President of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 16 April 2022
Blasts heard in Ukraine's capital Kyiv and western city of Lviv, local media report,” Reuters, 16 April 2022
Ukraine deputy PM: 9 evacuation corridors, including Mariupol, agreed for Saturday," Reuters, 16 April 2022
One killed, 18 wounded in missile strike on Ukraine's Kharkiv region, governor says,” Reuters, 16 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates,” The Guardian, 16 April 2022
Missile attack damages infrastructure in Brovary, near Kyiv, mayor says,” Reuters, 17 April 2022
Celebrity chef José Andrés’ kitchen destroyed in bombing,” BBC, 17 April, 2022
Ukraine's deputy PM says Ukraine, Russia fail to agree on evacuation convoys,Reuters, 17 April 2022
Ukraine completes questionnaire for EU membership,” Reuters, 18 April 2022
Ukrainians defy Russian surrender demand in Mariupol on 'Easter of war,” Reuters, 18 April 2022
Zelenskiy, IMF managing director discuss Ukraine's 'post-war reconstruction,” Reuters, 18 April 2022 
Trapped Ukrainians 'starving to death’,” BBC Live, 16 April 2022 
What Happened on Day 53 of the War in Ukraine,” The New York Times, 17 April 2022
Francis X. Rocca, “EU Countries Begin to Ban Russian Ships From National Ports,” The Wall Street Journal, 17 April 2022

Matthew Luxmoore, “Russia Warns NATO Expansion Would Destabilize Security in the Arctic,” The Wall Street Journal, 17 April 2022
James Hookway, “Russia Loses Another Major General in Ukraine Fighting,” The Wall Street Journal, 16 April 2022
Mauro Orru, “Russia Imposes Travel Ban on Boris Johnson, Other Top U.K. Officials,” The Wall Street Journal, 16 April 2022

RIA expert: Estonia could become greater target for Russian cyber attacks,” The Baltic Times, 17 April 2022
Dutch Patriot missile unit arrives in Slovakia for NATO defense after convoy collision,” NL Times, 17 April 2022

UK says Russia committed to compelling Ukraine to abandon its Euro-Atlantic orientation,” Reuters, 17 April 2022
Many of the nearly 5 million people who have fled Ukraine will not have homes to return to, the United Nations warned,” The Guardian Live, 17 April 2022 
UN says another 40,000 Ukrainians have fled the war,” France24 Live, 17 April 2022 
Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on Army Commanders’ meet agenda,” The Indian Express, 17 April 2022 
James M Dorsey, “Iran Capitalizes On Central Asian Vacuum Created By The Ukraine War – Analysis,” Eurasiareview, 17 April 2022 
Japan and five Central Asian nations vow to closely communicate over Ukraine,” The Japan Times, 16 April 2022 
"Moscow's Ukraine War Could Make Chinese Investment In Russia's Bashkortostan Disappear,” Radio Free Europe, 16 April 2022 
Lekhanath Pandey, “Ukraine conflict intensifies Nepal's economic woes,” Deutsche Welle, 15 April 2022
India to Boost Wheat Exports to North Africa Amid Ukraine Crisis,” Morocco world news, 16 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

GERMANY
Easter protestors demonstrate for peace, amid war in Ukraine
On 16 April, thousands of people gathered in several cities for their traditional Easter marches. The demonstrators marched under the banner "Lay down your arms! — Stop the war in Ukraine!" to protest against the war and increase military spending. According to police, around 1,200 people assembled in the streets of Berlin and Bremen. Meanwhile, hundreds of protestors gathered in Hanover, Munich, Cologne, Leipzig, Stuttgart, and Duisburg, among other cities. The protests received backlash from several politicians, calling it unrealistic and a far-away dream for pacifism in the current situation. Ukraine's ambassador to Berlin, Andriy Melnyk, condemned the demonstrations saying they "had nothing to do with Easter or peace," and accused them of living in a "parallel world". (“Germany holds Easter peace marches in shadow of Ukraine war,” Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2022)

FRANCE
French elections: Le Pen accused of misappropriation of funds
On 17 April, France’s prosecutors accused far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen of embezzlement claims. She and her associates have been accused of misappropriation of funds worth over EUR 600,000. The prosecutors were studying a report from the European Union’s anti-fraud office OLAF, which dates back to when she was a lawmaker in the European Parliament between 2004 and 2017. The agency further accused her of using EU funds for national political purposes, services that would benefit companies close to her party and personal expenses. (“France: Le Pen faces embezzlement claims ahead of election runoff,” Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2022)

Macron alerts the voters to be wary of Le Pen even though he leads
On 16 April, Emmanuel Macron is seen leading the first round of France's presidential election securing 27.6 per cent of the vote while National Rally's Marine Le Pen has 23.4 per cent. In a survey taken by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, Macron was found to have 55.5 per cent of support from the respondents however Marine Le Pen has only 45.5 per cent. The voter turnout for the second round is expected to be 72 per cent with a margin of error between 0.7 to 2.4 per cent. While incumbent Macron holds the lead, he emphasises that "nothing is decided" in the race for the presidency. He urged the voters to vote and warned them against far-right Le Pen. Macron was seen appealing to young voters about his stance on climate change and urged them to vote for him. Due to the danger posed by Le Pen to democracy and liberalism, socialists and leftist activists are most likely to back Macron. (Darko Janjevic, “French election: Macron leads Le Pen, but warns 'nothing is decided',” Deutsche Welle, 16 April 2022)

SWEDEN
Violence erupts over alleged burning of Quran
On 17 April, riots erupted for the fourth day in several cities that were triggered by right-winged extremist Rasmus Paludan who claimed to have burned the Quran. Paludan’s anti-immigration and anti-Islamic Stram Kurs (Hard Line) movement supporters threatened to burn copies of the Quran during the rallies. Paludan declared to hold another rally despite the police’s denial, which led to counter-demonstrators in the area against it. As the violence escalated, many vehicles were set on fire, and at least 11 individuals were arrested. Sweden’s justice minister, Morgan Johansson, urged the rioters to go home and labeled Paludan a “right-wing extremist fool, whose only goal is to drive violence and divisions.” (“Swedish police shoot 3 during fresh riots,” Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2022)

THE UK
70 Extinction Rebellion protestors detained 
On 17 April, 70 demonstrators participating in the Extinction Rebellion protests across the UK were arrested. Six were arrested for scaling and glueing themselves to an oil tanker at Hyde Park; Olympic gold medal-winning canoeist Etienne Stott and sailor Laura Baldwin were among them. Dozens more were arrested for climbing the marble arch structure and attaching a green banner that read: “end fossil fuels now.” The protestors also waved flags and set off flares that resulted in a public order direction to clear the roads. The protests on 16 April were a continuation of the 15 April protests where they had blocked London’s busy streets. (“Extinction Rebellion: Seventy arrested at climate change protests,” BBC, 17 April 2022)

The life expectancy of women is lesser in deprived regions of the country
On 17 April, The Guardian reported on the stark analysis of the average life expectancy of women in the UK. According to the health foundation analysis of life expectancy data, women in England’s poorest parts die earlier than in every comparable country. The study also reveals the actual extent of health disparities in England. The data demonstrates that life expectancy for women in the poorest districts is significantly below the UK’s average age of 83.1, England’s average age of 83.2, and the OECD average age of 83.4. Women in the richest and poorest communities had a 7.7 year age difference in life expectancy. The local council areas of Blackpool, Knowsley, Liverpool, and Middlesbrough are among the most disadvantaged and deprived in England. (Andrew Gregory, “Women in England’s poorest areas die younger than in most OECD countries,” The Guardian, 17 April 2022)

NETHERLANDS
Labour shortage stumbles energy efficiency
On 17 April, ABN bank said the ongoing labour crisis is a stumbling barrier for the Netherlands' energy efficiency goals. More than a third of job openings in the renewable energy sector, such as wind and solar power, remain vacant. This includes a scarcity of installers capable of handling heat pumps and solar panels. In addition, roofing, plumbing, heating, and gas and water pipe fitting technicians are in shortage. According to the bank, the labour market shortfall has never been this severe. More than one-fifth of all positions had no personnel available. There is virtually no staff available for 36 per cent of the professions related to the energy transition. (“Labor market tightness hindering energy transition: ABN Amro,” NL Times, 17 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Africa is influenced by Russia through Facebook pages. 
On 17 April, pro-Russian and anti-Western sentiments were spread through Facebook pages in west African countries. These misinformation campaigns spread Russian influence across unstable countries in western Africa. The Wagner group, a Russian mercenary group is suspected to be behind the actions. Facebook has already taken down inauthentic pieces of information but is struggling to contain the anti-western and pro-Russian posts. These posts are contributing to the political instability of the West African countries. The military coup in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso had garnered support from the public by using loopholes in Facebook's moderation policies presumably with the help of the Wagner group. While Facebook commented that it would improve its third-party fact-checking technology and would tackle the problem in an efficient way. (Jason Burke, “Facebook struggles as Russia steps up presence in unstable west Africa,” The Guardian, 17 April 2022)


16 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #177

War in Ukraine: Day 51

Paris attack trials defendant apologizes to victim’s families; Construction of Norway-Poland pipeline resumes

Photo : Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko


War in Ukraine: Day 51
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address 
During his everyday address, president Zelenskyy detailed how Ukrainians were returning to "normal life" in areas that have been rid of Russian occupiers. He also called on allies for more heavy weapons and to tighten the sanctions on Russian oil. Praising the armed forces of the country, he emphasised how the situation in the south and the east of the country was still quite difficult. Zelenskyy said: "The successes of our military on the battlefield are really significant, historically significant. But they are still not enough to clean our land of the occupiers.”

Zelenskyy also corresponded with Biden and made a direct appeal to him. He asked if the United States could designate Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism.”

Prime minister’s address
On 15 April, Ukraine agreed to receive financial help from Japan and Canada. Japan will be sending JPY 13 billion yen and CAD 500 million. In a televised video address, prime minister Denys Shmygal said: “These are funds to finance our primary needs .... We are negotiating assistance at all levels with everyone who can help.”

Kyiv
Russian troops started withdrawing from Kyiv on 29th March, and since then and relative peace has prevailed. . But given the fact that  Russia’s prized Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva sunk unexpectedly, they have warned that tensions in Kyiv will be on the rise. On 15 April, for the first time since the withdrawal of Russian troops, residents of Kyiv heard huge explosions.

Mariupol
Mariupol has been under siege since 24 February when the war began, but recently the Russian offensive there has increased in an increased attempt to take over the strategically important port city. Explosions rocked the area, and according to Reuters reports,  an attack was made at the Azovstal iron and steelworks, amidst dwindling Ukrainian forces. The Defence Ministry said that for the first time, Russia had used long-range bombers to attack the city.

Mykolaiv
On 15 April, The southern city of Mykolaiv witnessed cluster munitions being used. The governor of the region informed via the Telegram app that five people had been killed due to shelling.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Update from the Russian military
On 15 April, Russian defence ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov informed that they destroyed hundreds of drones and thousands of tanks during their special operations in Ukraine. He stated: “Russian forces have eliminated 132 aircraft, 105 helicopters, 456 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,213 tanks and other armoured vehicles and 249 multiple rocket launchers since the beginning of their special military operation in Ukraine.” The troops had also eliminated seven Ukrainian military facilities and a Tochka-U missile launcher using airborne precision missiles. He further updated on the targets eliminated in the Ukrainian strongholds and the shooting down of Su-27 fighters of their Air Force. 

Responding to North Macedonia’s expulsion of Russian diplomats
On 15 April, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Moscow would retaliate against Macedonia’s explosion of Russian diplomats. The Russian foreign ministry stated: “The North Macedonian administration is continuing on a confrontational path without paying any attention to the fact that such steps damage bilateral relations.” This comes as Macedonia expelled six diplomats from the Embassy of the Russian Federation.  

Moscow to eliminate Ukrainian nationalist battalions 
On 15 April, the Kremlin announced that it prioritised the elimination of nationalist battalions. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added: “Peaceful life is returning where nationalist battalions do not take civilians hostage and where these nationalist battalions do not open fire on social facilities and houses.” He further accused nationalist battalions of engaging in fierce struggles and hence justified their reason to be eliminated.  

Deputy PM on buyers paying in roubles for Russian gas
On 15 April, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said many countries who buy Russian gas had already agreed to convert their payments into roubles. He added: “I would like to emphasise that the transfer of payments for gas into the national currency on the Russian side is logical and caused by objective reasons - the desire to receive payment for the delivered goods with a 100% guarantee.” He further mentioned that the EU’s plans to move away from Russian gas by importing it from the US would not work out. The EU would face logistical nuances as the necessary infrastructure for receiving LNG was unavailable. 

Federation council deputy on cooperation with the EU
On 15 April, the federation council deputy Konstantin Kosachev said Russia was willing to continue its cooperation with the EU. However, it also mentioned that it would have to reconsider its relations. He added that the EU’s steps and accusations that stated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to switch to ruble payments for gas ran counter to the EU sanctions. He further mentioned that their accusations were approaching a red line for Russia. 

The sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser
On 15 April, a report by Reuters mentioned how much impact the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser would cause Russia. Russia claimed that a fire and explosions involving ammunition stowed aboard caused the ship to sink. However, the loss of the ship would degrade the fleet’s defences in the Black Sea but would not change the course of the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it would raise questions about Russia’s naval capabilities.  

Russia hit the Kyiv missile factory in retaliation to the Moskva attacks
On 15 April, Russian strikes hit a military factory near Kyiv that made the missiles that had likely sunk the Russian ship Moskva. The strike was Russia’s first significant strike around the capital in the last two weeks. 

Russia blocks The Moscow Times
On 15 April, the Moscow Times’ Russian-language service was blocked by Russia for publishing false reports on police officers refusing to fight the war in Ukraine. State communications watchdog Roskomnadzor banned the service, citing an order from the prosecutor general’s office. 

Russia expels 18 EU diplomats
On 15 April, Russia announced that it was expelling 18 EU diplomats in retaliation for Brussels declaring 19 Russian diplomats as personae non-gratae. In addition, Russia’s foreign ministry handed the EU ambassador to Russia, Markus Ederer, a note of protest. The ministry stated: “The Russian side declared that the EU is responsible for the consistent destruction of the architecture of bilateral dialogue and cooperation that had taken decades to form.” 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
Whitehouse press secretary, Jen Psaki said that the US president will not be sent to Ukraine for dialogue, instead, they are considering the secretary of the state, Antony Blinken. Apart from this, an official from the Defense Ministry confirmed that the Russian cruise missile ship was hit by Neptune missiles of Ukraine.

On 15 April, Ukraine’s army chief and US general held a phone call, where they discussed sending more weapons and the fight on the Kharkiv-Izyum border. Ukraine’s chief remarked that there was a “critical situation,” persisting in Mariupol.

The UK
On 15 April, the UK Ministry of Defense reported the sinking of Russia’s ship vessel Moskva. It said: “will likely lead Russia to review its maritime posture in the Black Sea.”

France
On 15 April, the Forensic department of France, through a team of experts investigated the mass burials graves located in Bucha. The aim of the investigation is to observe and collect evidence to use for the legal case against Russia in the ICC.

Russia’s media controller, Roskomnadzor blocked the website access to French radio station RFI. It blocked stating that RFI had violated the law of false and extremist information. The site was providing live updates on Ukraine, Russia did not mention the exact reason for blocking, but it is found to be on a spree to shut down independent media.

Estonia
The soldiers of Wales, belonging to the Royal Welsh regiment conducted training exercises in Estonia. The 1,200 NATO task force was led by the Welsh to “deter and defend,” future possible Russian attacks. Estonia's permanent secretary for defence, Kusti Salm said: “as clear as anything can be.” He also urged NATO to double the troop count in Estonia. Estonia’s president gave a warning that it was possible for Russia to launch a hybrid war in the coming days. He said: “Regardless of what happens we are ready for that. That's what this exercise is about and it's given confidence to our people. We are ready.”       

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

MNCs
On 14 April, Oreo makers Mondelez, Nestle, and PepsiCo were questioned by workers from Ukraine and eastern Europe for continuing their operations in Russia. Reuters reported on the internal communications within the organisation and interview six employees. It observed that the demand from the employees came from Ukraine’s repeated request to western companies to take a step further and cut down its businesses with Russia. According to Reuters, it found an internal memo that indicated the exit of many employees from Nestle and close to 130 employees from the Baltic countries has filed a petition against Mondelez asking to stop its business.

IMF
On 15 April, IMF warned that Bulgaria’s economy will be affected due to rising inflation from the Ukraine war. From the recent staff visit, IMF estimated that Bulgaria’s growth which was 4.4 per cent, due to inflation reduced to three per cent. Bulgaria’s banking sector is expected to remain “well capitalised and liquid,” but IMF asked the central bank to be wary of any after-effect of war. In the statement released: “The economic effects of the war will materialize primarily through higher commodity prices, lower trading partners' demand, and the impact of uncertainty on investment, while refugees need to be cared for. High energy dependence from Russia is a significant vulnerability.” As far as Bulgaria is concerned, it proposes to join the eurozone in 2024 to fasten its structural reform and control corruption.

Metinvest
One of the biggest steelmakers in Ukraine, Metinvest has promised to not re-open its businesses until the invasion. It reported that due to war, one-third of the country’s metallurgy producing capacity was down. Ukraine’s major steel and coal assets are located in the easter part and it supplied the largest to Europe. With war slowly shifting to the east, it becomes a challenge for the country’s steel industry to operate. According to Metinvest: “The country has therefore lost 30-40% of its metallurgical production capacity since the plants are not working. We have no doubt that their work will be resumed, but for this Mariupol must remain Ukrainian.”

References: 
Ukraine agrees to financial support from Japan, Canada,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Pavel Polityuk and Elizabeth Piper, “
Ukraine says fighting rages in Mariupol, blasts rattle Kyiv,Reuters, 16 April 2022
Natalia Zinets, “
Ukrainians hang on at Mariupol steel plant,Reuters, 15 April 2022
Ukraine says Russia used long-range bombers on Mariupol; 1st time in war,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Ukraine says five killed in shelling in city of Mykolaiv,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Russian troops destroy 456 drones, 2,213 tanks in Ukraine special operation — top brass,” TASS, 15 April 2022 
North Macedonia declares six Russian diplomats personae non gratae — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 15 April 2022 
Moscow views eliminating Ukrainian nationalist battalions as priority task, says Kremlin,” TASS, 15 April 2022 
Several buyers of Russian gas already agree to convert payments into rubles — Deputy PM,” TASS, 15 April 2022 
Russia willing to cooperate with EU, but may reconsider relations — lawmaker,” TASS, 15 April 2022 
How big a loss to Russia is the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser?,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Russia expels 18 EU diplomats from Moscow,” Reuters, 15 April 2022 
Daphne Rousseau, “Russia Hits Kyiv Missile Factory After Moskva Flagship Sinks,” The Moscow Times, 15 April 2022 
Moscow Times' Russian Service Blocked Over War Coverage,” The Moscow Times, 15 April 2022
Ukraine update,” Bloomberg, 15 April 2022
Gwyn Loader, “Ukraine: Royal Welsh soldiers support Estonia amid conflict,” BBC, 15 April 2022
Russia blocks FRANCE 24 sister radio station RFI website,” France24, 15 April 2022
War in Ukraine: French police officers probe Bucha mass grave,” France24, 15 April 2022
Bulgaria's growth prospects dented by war in Ukraine, IMF says,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Oreo-maker, Nestle, Pepsi face pressure from European employees over Russia,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
EXCLUSIVE Ukraine's top steelmaker vows never to work under Russian occupation,” Reuters, 15 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

GERMANY
Berlin to reduce dependency on Russian energy by 2023
On 15 April, Germany’s vice-chancellor Robert Habeck asked the public to reduce their energy consumption by 10 per cent to reduce importing energy supplies from Russia. Germany is one of the only two countries resisting the Russian oil embargo in Europe till now as it depends majorly on Russia for gas and oil. Cutting down on imports from Russia would lead to economic decline. Habeck said: "It starts with personal behaviour. If you heat your home and draw your curtains in the evening you save up to 5% of energy. If you lower the room temperature by 1C it's around 6%." (“Ukraine conflict: Save energy and annoy Putin, Germans told,” BBC News, 16 April 2022)

FRANCE
Elections: Le Pen and Macron confronted over policies on headscarves
On 15 April, Muslim headscarves were at the forefront of France's presidential campaign when women in headscarves approached both candidates, asking why their wardrobe choices should be entangled in politics. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen was confronted by a woman wearing a headscarf at a farmers market when she was greeting her supporters. Le Pen called the headscarf a "uniform imposed over time by people who have a radical vision of Islam." On the same day, incumbent president Macron, on the matter of headscarf, debated with a woman on the channel France-Info. He tried to set himself apart from Le Pen by claiming he would not modify any laws. However, he still backed the present prohibition on headscarves in schools as part of France's secular values. (“Macron clashes with Le Pen over Islamic headscarf ban,” Deutsche Welle, 15 April 2022)

Paris attack trials defendant apologizes to victims and their families
On 15 April, Salah A, the lone survivor of the terrorist group that carried out the November 2015 Paris attacks, apologized to the victims and their families in his trial testimony. Salah A has been on trial with 19 other defendants since September 2021 at the historic court of justice on the Ile de la Cite in central Paris. He was accused of assisting in the planning and execution of Paris' bloodiest peacetime terrorist attack. Among the other defendants, six are being tried in absentia, and five are believed to be dead. At the end of his trial testimony, Salah said: "I know that hatred remains... I ask you today that you hate me with moderation, I ask you to forgive me." (“Main Paris attacks suspect apologizes to 'all victims,” Deutsche Welle, 15 April 2022)

REGIONAL
Norway-Poland pipeline construction to be restarted  
On 13 April, Norway-Poland pipeline construction was resumed to reduce the imports of Russian oil and gas. The construction of the pipeline was initially stopped as it was considered harmful to the environment. The pipeline is expected to become functional from 01 January 2023. According to the project manager: "It's also about having the gas in the Danish system, but above all to help the gas system of our good neighbours and Polish friends." After Russia, Norway is the second-largest gas supplier and this means, no more exporting of Poland's gas to western Europe. It might help Poland, but Norway's gas exports to the UK and Germany will reduce. (“Amid war in Ukraine, work resumes on Poland-Norway gas pipeline,” Euronews, 16 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Indian citizens travelling to the UK via EU airlines denied entry 
On 15 April, Indian citizens who did not have transit or regular Schengen visas were denied boarding on the EU airlines such as Lufthansa, KLM, and Air France at origin airports to travel to the UK. Since the UK is no longer a member of the EU, non-EU nationals must obtain a transit Schengen visa to fly to the UK on flights operated by EU airlines. A Schengen visa is a short-term visa that permits its bearer to travel freely across the Schengen region, including 26 EU nations known as ‘Schengen States’. The UK is only accessible for non-EU citizens via non-stop flights or one-stop flights through the Gulf or Switzerland without transiting or obtaining a standard Schengen visa. (“Indians without Schengen visa can't fly to UK on EU airlines,” Business Standard, 15 April 2022)


15 April 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #176

War in Ukraine: Day 50

Germany’s foreign minister stops at Niger on her West Africa tour; Criticism arose over the UKSPF; Assylum seekers sent to Rwanda from the UK; Germany plans to buy four floating LNG terminals

Photo : Reuters/Alexey Pavlishak/File Photo


War in Ukraine: Day 50
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy on 50 days of war

Zelenskyy’s address
On 14 April, president Zelenksyy referred to how the Ukrainians had survived 50 days of the war when the Russians had said that they will take Ukraine over in just five days. He said: “But they didn’t know how brave Ukrainians are, how much we value freedom and the possibility to live the way we want.” He also said that the European countries who are still buying oil from Russia were “making money out of blood.” Zelenskyy called for further support, especially with regard to weapons, emphasising how urgently they need the weapons.

Ukraine’s military
Ukraine's military also released a statement on the occasion of 50 days of the war in Ukraine. They also highlighted the war proceeds from a defence perspective. With the rising Russian offensive in the east of the country, like in the Ukrainian-Belarusian border of Brest, and Gomel, along with Kharkiv and Donetsk. They also mentioned how the Russian forces stormed the port-city of Mariupol but were unsuccessful and that they were conducting the investigation in Slobozhansky in northeastern Ukraine. The military also claimed on destruction of a tank, four armoured units, six vehicles, and a Russian artillery system. 

Ukraine’s foreign ministry
Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Germany to make their decision regarding a promised delivery of weapons soon. The consignment of arms, as coordinated by the Federal Chancellery has been delayed by red tape and because of the approval needed by several ministries to do so.

They also elaborated on their fears of Ukrainian children being trafficked by Russia. They said that the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk were allegedly planning to sign memorandums with the Russian Education Ministry, about the children in this region. The ministry also wrote letters to the UNHCR, UNICEF, and the Red Cross about possible kidnappings of Ukraine’s children. 

Russia’s missile cruiser sinks
On 14 April, the Black Sea fleet sank. This happened after a huge explosion destroyed its vessel. Moscow and Kyiv had different explanations for the same, but Ukraine offered the narrative that they had struck the ship with a Neptune Missile. This move will definitely be boosting Ukrainian morale, as this is the first Russian ship to sink since the Second World War. This also marks the first time that Ukraine used their 300 km range missiles, which they had reportedly received in March last year. 

Other developments
On 14 April, Deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported that 2557 people had been evacuated from the country through the humanitarian corridors that have been established. Out of them, 289 people left by their own transport from the besieged port of Mariupol.

On 14 April a UN committee said that 2.7 million Ukrainian people with disabilities were at risk in the war-torn country. Many were reportedly trapped or without the safety of their homes, care centres or orphanages. The committee said: "People with disabilities have limited or no access to emergency information, shelters and safe havens, and many have been separated from their support networks, leaving them unable to respond to the situation and navigate their surroundings.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin’s comments
On 14 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s energy export will be expanded to Asia. He warned the European countries for adopting alternatives in place of Russia’s energies and causing economic instability. The revenue from the energy sector accounts for 36 per cent of Russia’s spending and a larger part came from Europe.

Warnings and accusations
Russia’s Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned that if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, Russia will boost it defence. He also added that the possibility of being “nuclear free” will close down.

Russia accused Ukraine of targeting its residential area. It reported that two low-flying military helicopters armed with heavy arms were launched in Klimovo, which injured seven people along with a child. The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region reported similarly on the shelling of residential towns. In the statement released: “Two military helicopters... carried out at least six airstrikes on residential buildings in the settlement of Klimovo.”

Russia’s Defence Ministry
On 14 April, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported on the explosion of its vessel Moskva. In the statement released, it said: “The cruiser Moskva's ammunition has detonated as a result of a fire on the warship. The vessel is seriously damaged. The entire crew have been evacuated. The cause of the blaze is being investigated.” The Ukrainian forces had stated that that vessel was attacked using Neptune missiles. Previously, the Moskva warship was under attack by Ukrainians calling for surrender, later Russia confirmed that the ammunition which were stored in the ship had exploded.

Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, chief, Igor Kirillov confirmed on Ukraine’s purchase of 50 drones that are usable to spray deadly chemicals. He said: “According to available data, in January 2022, Ukraine purchased through intermediary companies over 50 such craft that can be employed for using biological substances and toxic chemicals.”

Russia claimed that close to 1000 troops of Ukraine marines in Mariupol have surrendered. The information was denied by the deputy mayor of Mariupol, but Russia broadcasted a video showing the marines giving up their steelworks in the port.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 14 April, the US was deliberating about sending high ranking US officials to meet Zelenskyy in Kyiv. However, the White House is likely to send the secretary of state or secretary of defence instead of Biden or vice-president Kamala Harris. 

Poland
On 14 April, Poland's border guard stated that 2.73 million people had fled to Poland since the war began. However, the number of refugees crossing the border has decreased since Russian troops started withdrawing from the north and from around the Kyiv region. At the same time, many refugees have already left Poland, with only about 1.2-1.4 million remaining. 

The UK 
On 14 April, the UK government announced that two more men linked to Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich would be placed on the sanction list. Eugene Tenenbaum and David Davidovich were also owners of the Chelsea Football Club. The assets frozen under the new sanctions amount to GBP ten billion. 

France and Jersey 
On 14 April, the countries of France and Jersey said they had frozen assets belonging to Roman Abramovich as a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. France froze assets worth GBP 20 billion while Jersey froze assets of GBP five billion. The Jersey police have also stepped up their search to find properties belonging to Abramovich. 

On 14 April, France's foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced that France would move its Ukrainian embassy back to Kyiv. He added: ``This redeployment will happen very soon and allow France to deepen its backing for Ukraine even further in all spheres to face the war unleashed by Russia on 24 February."

Ireland
On 14 April, Ireland's foreign and defence minister Simon Coveney visited Kyiv in a show of support for Ukraine. Ireland's department of foreign affairs stated that his visit was to "provide political, security and humanitarian support to Ukraine; assist Ukraine in its application for EU candidate status; take forward further EU sanctions on Russia; and hold Russia to account for its brutal and unjustified invasion".

On the same day, Coveney mentioned that even though Ireland was a neutral country, it was not neutral in this war and conflict. He further announced EUR three million in funding to the ICC and EUR one million to the prosecutor's office.

Moldova
On 14 April, Moldova’s foreign minister Nicu Popescu said: "These are not actions that contribute to peace for all of us, for our citizens, for our families, and these are dangerous things and should be discouraged." His statement came as a response to a question by a journalist about Russia's attempts to recruit people in Transdniestria. Transdniestria is a part of Moldova controlled by Russian separatists.

Lithuania 
On 14 April, Lithuania's prime minister Ingrida Šimonytė dismissed warnings of Russia on Vilnius joining NATO. She added: "That Russia threatens, it is nothing new. Kaliningrad is a very militarized zone, has been for many years, and it is in the Baltic region." Šimonytė has supported the baltic countries joining NATO as it greatly benefits the countries and their security. 

The EU
On 14 April, the EU stated that it was able to close a loophole that allowed its member countries to export weapons worth tens of millions to Russia in 2021. The EU had placed an embargo on its members from exporting weapons to Russia since its annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, member countries were able to export weapons worth EUR 39 million through the loophole. 

On the same day, The EU stated that its payment for Russian gas in rubles would violate the bloc's sanctions. The EU commission released an internal note on this matter saying: "This mechanism would lead to a breach of the existing EU restrictive measures adopted in respect of Russia, its government, the Central Bank of Russia, and their proxies." 

Also, on 14 April, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said the war in Ukraine was severely impacting the eurozone economy. He added: "The impact of the war on the economy will depend on how the conflict evolves, on the effect of current sanctions and on possible further measures." 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war 

China
On 14 April, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian defended China’s stance in the war by saying: “Time will prove that China’s position is on the right side of history.” In addition, Zhao responded to the US’ criticism for not participating in Western sanctions against Russia. However, earlier, Beijing clarified that it was not doing anything to circumvent sanctions. 

Citigroup
On 14 April, Citigroup said it set aside USD 1.9 billion in reserves to counter uncertainties created by the War in Ukraine. The group said: “related to Citi’s exposures in Russia and the broader impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the macroeconomic environment.” The measures come as a response to its 46 per cent decline in profits for the first quarter, while its revenues dipped two per cent. 

World Cup 
On 14 April, the match between Ukraine and Scotland, which was postponed due to the war, was scheduled for 01 June. The teams will have their playoff at Hampden Park in Glasgow. The winner of the match would play against Wales for a spot in the World Cup in Qatar in November and December.

IMF
On 14 April, the International Monetary Fund warned that the war in Ukraine and the resurfacing of COVID-19 cases in China were directly lowering this year's economic growth. The IMF’s managing director stated: “We are facing a crisis on top of a crisis… “We will be projecting a further downgrade in global growth for 2022 and 2023.” The war in Ukraine accentuated high inflation rates globally amid concerns about oil and gas, wheat and fertiliser supplies. 

UN
On 14 April, the UN stated that its World Food Programme (WFP) would increase by USD 136 million in West Africa due to the rise in global prices of food and fuel. The WFP regional director Chris Nikoi said: “With the unfolding conflict in Ukraine, ports and suppliers are no longer accessible with shipments from the wider Black Sea delayed or simply cancelled.” West African countries import 30-50 per cent of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. 

On the same day, a UN committee stated its concerns for the lives of 2.7 million people with disabilities in Ukraine who were at risk due to the war. The committee stated: “People with disabilities have limited or no access to emergency information, shelters and safe havens, and many have been separated from their support networks, leaving them unable to respond to the situation and navigate their surroundings.” 

References: 
Zelensky: Countries buying Russian oil are earning money in other people's blood,” BBC, 14 April 2022
"Russia says flagship missile cruiser Moskva has sunk after fire,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Ukraine says 2,557 people evacuated on Thursday,Reuters, 15 April 2022
Millions of disabled people's lives at risk in Ukraine, U.N. committee says,” Reuters, 15 April 2022
Ukraine foreign minister urges Berlin for quick arms delivery decision,” Reuters, 14 April 2022
Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 14 April 2022
BBC live,” BBC, 14 April 2022

Ukraine purchased over 50 drones to spray toxic chemicals — Russian top brass,” TASS, 14 April 2022
US mulling whether to send top official to meet Zelensky - report,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022
US to send $800m more military aid,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022
Adam Easton, “More than 2.7 million refugees have fled Ukraine to Poland,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
UK sanctions two more key Russian oligarchs,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
France and Jersey freeze Abramovich assets,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
France to move its Ukrainian embassy back to Kyiv,” The Guardian Live, 14 April 2022
Lithuania’s prime minister dismisses Russian warning on Nato as 'nothing new’,” The Guardian Live, 14 April 2022
War 'severely' impacting eurozone economy,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
Irish foreign minister accuses Russia of war crimes,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
Ireland's foreign minister to visit Kyiv in show of solidarity,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
European leaders visit Ukraine,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
Jan Strupczewski, “EU payment in roubles for Russian gas would violate sanctions regime -document,” Reuters, 14 April 2022 
Moldova accuses Russian army of trying to recruit its citizens,” Reuters, 14 April 2022 
Francesco Guarasscio, "EU closes loophole allowing multimillion-euro arms sales to Russia,” Reuters, 14 April 2022
Fiji probing superyacht linked to Russian oligarch,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022 
Canada to deploy military personnel to Poland to support Ukrainian refugees,” Reuters, 14 April 2022 
Ukraine war increases U.N. food agency's costs in hunger-hit West Africa,” Reuters, 14 April 2022
Fate of millions of people with disabilities in Ukraine ‘unknown’, UN says,” The Guardian Live, 14 April 2022

China Defends Stance on Russia After U.S. Criticism,” The Moscow Times, 14 April 2022 “Citigroup sets aside $1.9 bn due to Russian-Ukraine conflict,” Deccan Herald, 14 April 2022 
Richard Partington, “IMF to lower global growth forecasts due to Ukraine war and Covid,” The Guardian Live, 14 April 2022
Scotland v Ukraine World Cup play-off set for 1 June,” BBC Live, 14 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

GERMANY
Germany’s response to its dependency on Russian gas
On 14 April, Germany said it was planning to lease four floating liquified natural gas terminals at EUR three billion. The finance minister had formulated the plan without the consent of the German parliament. The investment was proposed as an alternative to Russian gas. Germany has to forgo its Nord Stream 2 pipeline usage as its most significant natural gas supplier Russia, has waged war against Ukraine. As a result, Germany hopes to be independent of Russian gas imports by mid-2024. It further plans to decrease its dependency on the Russian energy supply by lowering its consumption and using existing energy sources. At the same time, it plans to look toward countries like Algeria and Libya for natural gas pipelines and usage of existing terminals in France, Belgium and the Netherlands. (Jon Shelton, “Germany earmarks €3 billion for floating LNG terminals,” Deutsche Welle, 14 April 2022)

Foreign minister Baerbock visits Niger to discuss humanitarian and military aid
On 14 April, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock visited Niamey, Niger’s capital, as a part of her West Africa Tour. She urged immediate action to tackle hunger in Niger and other parts of the unstable Sahel region, citing growing food costs and the destructive impact of climate change. Baerbock asked the international community to increase their food relief efforts during a visit to the Ouallam refugee camp. Baerbock met with Niger’s foreign minister Hassoumi Massoudou to assess the country’s security situation and if there was a need to send more German troops to fight terrorists in the region. Massoudou urged an increase in Germany’s involvement in training Niger’s military training and joint missions. (“Germany's Baerbock urges faster aid 'to avoid hunger crisis' in Niger,” Deutsche Welle, 14 April 2022)

THE UK
Shared Prosperity Fund is far behind the EU’s funding levels
On 14 April, criticisms arose over the UK’s Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) designed to replace EU grants which were terminated due to Brexit. The government’s Shared Prosperity Fund will only give EUR 2.6 billion over the next three years and will not meet the previous EU funding level of EUR 1.5 billion per year until 2025. Think tanks and politicians have condemned the settlement, while the Welsh government claims it would lose more than EUR one billion in funding over the next three years. According to the think tank IPPR North, compared to the average EU funding, the Shared Prosperity Fund dropped by 43 per cent. The director of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, Henri Murison, said: “These funds helped young people find work, supported small businesses and backed vital medical research – cutting it will have catastrophic consequences for our economy.” (Josh Halliday, “An outrage’: Tories’ post-Brexit fund will not match EU grants until 2025,'' The Guardian, 14 April 2022)

REGIONAL
Netherlands sending patriot missiles to Slovakia under NATO treaty 
On 14 April, the Dutch Patriot anti-aircraft missile system was sent to Slovakia to protect the NATO treaty area and its population against possible missile strikes. The Dutch have also sent 150 soldiers to Slovakia that are to be stationed alongside German soldiers at the Sliac airbase. After Russia invaded Ukraine, these anti-aircraft systems were transported to Slovakia for precautionary measures. Slovakia also showed its support for Ukraine by sending S-300 anti-aircraft systems to defend itself from Russian forces. The Netherlands would defend Slovakia with the Patriot air defence system. (“Dutch Patriot missile systems heading to Slovakia,” NL Times, 14 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Jhonson calls Rwanda a safe place for migrants
On 14 April, UK prime minister Boris Johnson said that illegal immigrants would now go to Rwanda for refuge. This new set of immigrant policies encouraged unauthorised migrants to move to Rwanda and establish new lives for themselves. Concerning Rwanda's poor human rights records, Johnson responded that the country has changed, and it has become one of the safest places in the world. The home secretary Priti Patel visited Kigali, the Rwandan capital, to sign an "economic development partnership". Johnson further stated that the policies were needed to cut large expenditures on the hotels and save countless lives from human trafficking. He also said that the Royal Navy would patrol the Channel for the safety of the country and also to intercept any illegal immigrants. (Rajeev Syal, “Tens of thousands of asylum seekers could be sent to Rwanda, says Johnson,” The Guardian, 15 April 2022)


14 April 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #175

War in Ukraine: Day 49

UK to host its asylum seekers in Rwanda; Lithuania prepares for potential Russian attacks; Baltic and Polish presidents to meet Zelenskyy; Right-wing extremist group arrested in Germany.

Photo : Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 49
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
War on the ground:
Zelenskyy's address
On 13 April, president Zelenskyy addressed Estonia’s parliament and highlighted the plight that is being faced by the Ukrainians. He said that Russia was using phosphorous bombs and also accused them of intimidating civilians with terror tactics. He added: "The Russian army is using all types of artillery, all types of missile, air bombs in particular phosphorous bombs against residential districts and civilian infrastructure.” He also thanked Estonia for their ‘principled support’ and how they were supporting Ukraine’s accession to the EU. 

Zelenskyy’s talks with world leaders
Zelenskyy continued his correspondence with the US president Joe Biden, to discuss further defensive and financial aid. They also spoke about the alleged war crimes committed by Russia and about the imposition of the impending sanctions. Biden announced that he will be authorising USD 800 million in military aid for Ukraine.

On 13 April, a deluge of European leaders visited Kyiv. The presidents of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia promised to increase military support, and said that Russia must be held accountable for its action. The four presidents also visited places in and around Kyiv. Poland’sresident Andrzej Duda said: "This is not war, this is terrorism… We're not just talking about the soldiers who committed those crimes, but those who issued orders - all of them should be brought to justice.”

Kyiv
On 13 April, the head of police for the Kyiv region said that they were still uncovering horrors from below the rubble of destruction. In a televised message, he said: "We are finding terrible things: buried and hidden bodies of people who were tortured and shot, and who died as a result of mortar and artillery fire,"  

Mariupol
On 13 April, Russia’s defence ministry announced that 1,026 soldiers from Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade had surrendered in Mariupol.The Russian forces captured the Azovstal industrial district, which also granted them full control of the Sea of Avoz port. This will enable them to further strengthen their occupation of the east of Ukraine. 

Kharkiv
On 13 April it was reported that there has been a significant increase in bombing in the Kharkiv region. Kharkiv has been under siege since 24 February, but the Russian offensive has increased significantly in the last few days. Governor Oleh Synehubov wrote that four people were killed and ten wounded by strikes. 

Other developments
Nine humanitarian corridors were announced for Thursday, and a prisoner swap with Russia was also agreed upon. Due to it, 30 Ukrainians will be returning home.The World Bank is planning to provide financial support worth USD 1.5 billion to Ukraine, in order to keep essential services like hospital wages, government services and social programmes for vulnerable people, up and running. 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russian projects in the arctic to continue
On 13 April, Russian president Vladimir Putin demanded that the projects in the Russian arctic must not be postponed due to the ongoing situation and sanctions. He also mentioned that the implementation of these projects must be increased. He added: “Not to postpone them, not to shift them right, but, instead, we must respond to attempts to curb our development with a maximum increase of the pace of work both on current and upcoming tasks.” 

1,000 Ukrainian marines surrender in Mariupol
On 13 April, Russia claimed that over 1,000 Ukrainian marines surrendered in Mariupol days after Russian forces besieged the port city. Russian forces had encircled Mariupol for weeks; they had even blockaded the ports and called on the defenders to surrender. However, only on 13 April did the marines of the 36th Marine Brigade, which included 162 officers and 1,026 soldiers, laid down their arms. 

US and NATO weapon transports deemed legitimate targets
On 13 April, deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov announced that Russia proclaimed that the US and NATO weapon transports were legitimate military targets. Ryabkov said: “We are warning that US-NATO weapons transport across Ukrainian territory will be considered by us as legal military targets.” He added that these moves were made to deter further damage to Russian contingents and formations by the Americans and the West. 

AUKUS a narrow security pact in the Asia Pacific 
On 13 April, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the AUKUS pact a “narrow pact” that was incapable of serving as a security pact for the Asia Pacific region. He added that these narrow pacts would unlikely grow into a broad platform that could provide stability and security in such a vast region. 

Kremlin on statements by Kyiv
On 13 April, Peskov mentioned that all statements by Kyiv needed to be checked as Ukraine was creating a fake narrative against Russia. He said: “That’s why I want to urge everyone to treat all the information that way: Don’t take it at face value, don’t believe what you see but just try to double-check everything and at least look for an alternative point of view.” He added that the Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk’s detaining video was also not legitimate and said it was too early to determine the video to be authentic.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US

On 13 April, US president Joe Biden declared additional military assistance of USD 800 million to Ukraine. The previous package included heavy artillery, armoured personnel carriers and coastal defence boats. In the additional package, the US has agreed to supply “11 Mi-17 helicopters, 40,000 artillery rounds, counter-artillery radars, 200 armored personnel carriers and 300 additional "Switchblade" drones.” According to Pentagon spokesperson, John Kirby, highlighted that in terms of Howitzers and radars, the Ukrainian forces needed training in using the equipments. On the same the Pentagon released a statement: “focused primarily on accelerating production and building more capacity across the industrial base for weapons and equipment that can be exported rapidly, deployed with minimal training, and prove effective in the battlefield.”  

The UK
On 13 April, UK Ministry of Defence released its observation on the war situation in Ukraine and Russia’s movements. On Russia’s appointment of Army general Alexander Dvornikov. It observed Russia’s attempt in centralising command and control. The change of leader also shows Russia’ inability to coordinate its military activity. Apart from this it showcases Ukraine’s resistance and ill-planning of Russian forces in carrying out its operations.

On 13 April, the UK imposed a new set of sanctions on 206 Russian individuals, out of which 178 were suspected to be involved in supporting the separatists group in the eastern Ukraine region. In the list several oligarchs and cousins on billionaires have been sanctioned. According to foreign secretary Liz Truss: “In the wake of horrific rocket attacks on civilians in Eastern Ukraine, we are today sanctioning those who prop up the illegal breakaway regions and are complicit in atrocities against the Ukrainian people.”  

Poland, and the Baltic states
Poland’s president Andrzej Duda called the Russian attacks in Ukraine as “terrorism.” He urged to account the crimes committed by Russia and demanded for justice. Although Russian has strongly denied the allegations of war crimes, Duda during his meeting with Zelenskyy said that it was not war but it was terrorism. Along with Duda, Latvia’s president stressed that it was their responsibility to support Ukraine with necessary weapons. Whereas  the leaders of  Lithuania and Estonia uniformly support for Ukraine to win the war and criticised Putin for launching the war. 

Germany 
Chairmen of German’s three parliamentarian committees asked the EU to levy oil embargo on Russia. In contract, Kiel Institute’s vice-president said that such cut down on energy supplies will push Germany’s economy into recession. The German Economy Ministry on the impact of economy said: “They depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the war.” 

Switzerland
Switzerland imposed next round of sanctions against Russia and Belarus for the growing military operations in Ukraine. Similar to UK, 200 individuals were targeted with sanctions. Till now, it has frozen assets of Russians worth Swiss francs 7.5 billion, but it is yet to expel Russian diplomats.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

China
On 13 April, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated that US sanctions on Russia were unacceptable and would have negative implications around the globe. He added that the US had a responsibility to maintain the economic system and stability. However, the sanctions would lead to other countries paying for its ramifications instead of Russia. On the same day, the Guardian reported the increase in trade between Russia and China. The overall trade with Russia had increased by 12.76 per cent. 

The WHO
On 13 April, the World Health Organization’s head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the world was not giving equal attention to other issues apart from the Ukraine war. He added: “I need to be blunt and honest that the world is not treating the human race the same way. Some are more equal than others.” However, he mentioned that the Ukraine crisis was significant as it affected countries worldwide. 

The UN
On 13 April, the UN released an advisory to the UK government to not match Ukrainian women and children with single men. The UN was concerned for the refugees and stated: “Matching done without the appropriate oversight may lead to increasing the risks women may face, in addition to the trauma of displacement, family separation and violence already experienced.” However, the UK government said it had set up “robust security and background checks”. The UK’s spokesperson added: “Councils must make at least one in-person visit to a sponsor’s property and they have a duty to make sure the guest is safe and well once they’ve arrived.” 

Also, on 13 April, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres appealed for a ceasefire in Ukraine. However, he said: “it does not seem possible”. He said it was impossible as Russia had not responded to the UN evacuating Ukrainian civilians from war zones. 

The ICC 
On 13 April, the international court of justice’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan visited Bucha and mentioned: “Ukraine is a crime scene”. This comes as the ICC is investigating the crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. Khan added: “We have to pierce the fog of war to get to the truth. That requires independent, impartial investigation.” Khan met with Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova and said they planned to collaborate and deepen engagement to deliver accountability to the people of Ukraine. 

Mercedes-Benz
On 13 April, the former parent of Mercedes-Benz, Daimler Truck, said that it was looking to possibly sell its stakes in the Russian vehicle and engine maker Kamaz. Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov said he was interested in acquiring the stakes of Kamaz owned by Mercedes-Benz. Roster currently owns 499 per cent of the stake but was looking to acquire the 15 per cent owned by Daimler Truck. The sanctions against Russia and Western companies were disinvesting from Russia.  

References: 
Zelenskiy accuses Russia of using phosphorous bombs, terror tactics,”
Pavel Polityuk and Oleksandr Kozhukhar, “
Some 1,000 Ukraine marines surrender in Mariupol, says Russia,” Reuters, 14 April 2022
Visiting Kyiv, leaders of Poland and Baltic states condemn Russia,”Reuters, 14 April 2022
Mayor of Ukraine's Kharkiv says bombing of city has increased significantly,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Samantha Lock, Maanvi Singh, Lauren Aratani, Léonie Chao-Fong and Martin Belam, “
Civilians flee eastern Ukraine in advance of a widely forecast attack – as it happened,” The Guardian, 13 April 2022
Russia says U.S., NATO weapon transports in Ukraine are legitimate targets,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Peskov brands AUKUS ‘narrow pact’ unable to serve as security platform in Asia-Pacific,” TASS, 13 April 2022
Russia has no chemical weapons, they have been disposed of — Federation Council speaker,” TASS, 13 April 2022 
Putin demands not to postpone Arctic projects despite sanctions,” TASS, 13 April 2022 
Press review: Kiev nixed Istanbul deal and Palestinians pressured on Russia-Ukraine crisis,” TASS, 13 April 2022 
Kremlin says all statements by Kiev need to be double checked,” TASS, 13 April 2022
Patricia Zengerle, Idrees Ali and Mike Stone “U.S. gives Ukraine $800 million more in military aid, adds heavy weapons,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
German economic institutes see sharp recession if Russian gas cut off,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Polish president calls war in Ukraine "terrorism", demands justice,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
UK sanctions Russian separatists in breakaway regions, Lukoil chief,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Swiss adopt latest round of EU sanctions on Russia,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Visiting Kyiv, leaders of Poland and Baltic states condemn Russia,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
WHO head: Ukraine shows black and white lives not equal,” BBC Live, 13 April 2022
Hamzah Abbas, “Homes for Ukraine: Don't match female refugees with single men, UN says,” BBC Live, 13 April 2022 
The UN chief said today that a ceasefire in Ukraine “doesn’t seem possible,” possibly indicating that the UN is still waiting on a response from Russia on evacuating Ukrainian civilians and providing aid,” The Guardian live, 13 April 2022 
The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, visited the Ukrainian town of Bucha today, telling reporters: “Ukraine is a crime scene”,” The Guardian live, 13 April 2022 “China’s overall trade with Russia rose by more than 12% in March from a year earlier in dollar terms,” The Guardian live, 13 April 2022 
"Chinese Foreign Ministry opposed to US sanctions against Russia,” TASS, 13 April 2022
Mercedes-Benz, Daimler Truck say cannot confirm talks on Russian stake sale,” Reuters, 13 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Elections: Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s shift in position
On 13 April, Deutsche Welle examined the French presidential election candidate Marine Le Pen’s relations with Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine. In 2017, a few weeks before France’s last presidential election, Russian president Vladimir Putin welcomed her to Kremlin. A photograph of their handshake appeared on one of Le Pen’s campaign fliers, which was printed before the war and later discarded. She called for an “alliance” with Russia in her manifesto concerning European security policy. In 2017, the far-right leader secured a EUR 9 million loan from a Russian bank for her presidential election campaign. Le Pen did not condemn the annexation of Crimea as well. However, her position changed following the war in Ukraine, and she denounced Russia’s invasion. (Lisa Louis, “France: Le Pen's Russia ties could lower her chances,” Deutsche Welle, 14 April 2022)

GERMANY
Vereinte Patrioten members arrested by German police 
On 14 April, four members of a right-wing extremist group who were scheming to overthrow the democratically elected government in Germany were arrested by investigators in West Germany. These people called themselves “Vereinte Patrioten” (United Patriots) and had plans to plant bombs on Germany’s energy infrastructure. They even planned to kidnap the health minister. The group’s main goal was to make the German democracy topple. The investigators confiscated several arms, ammunition, gold and silver ingots, and cash. The neo-nazi group has prior involvement in the COVID-denier protest scene and the “Reichsbürger” movement. (“German police arrest far-right extremists over plans to 'topple democracy',” Deutsche Welle, 14 April 2022)

LITHUANIA
Counter offensives prepared against potential attacks from Russia
On 13 April, the prime minister of Lithuania, Ingrida Šimonytė stated that they were ready to counter any potential attack from Russia. Previously, the head of Lithuania's border guard, Rustamas Liubajevas, said that the Kremlin might deliberately cause a migrant crisis by sending people through the EU's eastern border. Šimonytė raised concerns about a hybrid attack citing the previous attempts of Russia and Belarus to damage power grids and IT infrastructure through hacking, dissemination of information and influx of illegal migration. (“Lithuania ready for Russia’s potential hybrid attacks – PM,” Baltic Times, 13 April 2022)

REGIONAL
Poland and the countries in the Baltics display their support for Ukraine
On 13 April, presidents of the Baltic countries and Poland were scheduled to meet president Zelenskyy of Ukraine in a bid to show their support. The press office of the Latvian president, Egils Levits, released the statement regarding the meeting only at the last moment. Former Latvian president Valdis Zatlers mentioned that these kinds of meetings are announced only at the last minute to avoid any interruptions and security threats to the presidents. The presidents discussed the best ways to help Ukraine against Putin and Russia. They also discussed their support to let Ukraine join NATO and how the EU should impose tougher sanctions against Russia. They showed strength in unity and stood up against Russia without any fear. (“Baltic and Polish presidents to meet with Zelensky,” The Baltic Times, 14 April 2022)

UK to host its asylum seekers in Rwanda
On 13 April, the UK’s home secretary Priti Patel agreed on a migration deal with Rwanda. The deal is set to send asylum seekers in the UK to Rwanda to get their applications processed and encourage them to live there. The Rwandan government is expected to receive an initial EUR 120 million as part of the trial, but critics claim the whole scheme’s annual cost would be far higher. The liberal democrats critiqued the proposal citing it does nothing to stop the perilous Channel crossing or combat smuggling and trafficking. Prime minister Boris Johnson is set to announce several steps such as placing the navy in command of Channel operations and establishing a new processing centre to keep checks on anyone seeking to enter the UK. (“UK to sign deal to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing,” BBC, 14 April 2022)

L’Occitane stores remain open in Russia, amid the war in Ukraine
On 14 April, French cosmetics brand L’Occitane decided to keep its retail stores open in Russia amid the war in Ukraine. Hundreds of international brands, including L’Oreal and Estee Lauder, have already shut down their stores and stopped selling online in Russia in protest of the war. Customers have criticised L’Occitane’s decision and have called for a boycott of the brand, which is marketed in over 3,085 retail shops globally and had EUR 1.5 billion in sales in 2021. However, the firm said it strongly condemned Russia’s “unjustified and unprovoked” invasion, drastically reduced its business and suspended all new investment plans and exports. (“Beth Timmins, “Beauty firm L'Occitane keeps Russian stores open,” BBC, 14 April 2022)

Allotment of homes for Ukrainian women refugees to be scrutinised
On 14 April, the UN stated that the UK should take care of the allotment of hosts to the refugees who opt for the scheme Homes for Ukraine. The UN further added that the matchups were being exploited by single men trying to get innocent and helpless Ukrainian women and children. Louise Calvey, the head of safeguarding at Refugee Action from UNHCR, said that the scheme could become tinder for sex traffickers. In response to the UN, the UK’s government said that it conducted robust security and background checks of the hosts. The matchups should be done appropriately, and women and children would feel safer if they were to stay with a family or a couple. Most women refugees fall prey to exploitative men using social media. The process of immigration is seen to be slow, and the visas are also being given at a slower rate. (Hamzah Abbas, “Homes for Ukraine: Don't match female refugees with single men, UN says,” BBC, 14 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

A new study on the efficiency of commitments made in the COP26 conference 
On 13 April, the BBC reported on the findings and suggestions of a new study titled “Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C,” published in the journal Nature. According to the study, if all of the commitments made by governments at the Glasgow committee meeting are followed “in full and on time,” temperatures will rise by 1.9-2 degrees Celsius. However, the paper projects only a ten per cent success rate for staying under the critical threshold of two degrees celsius. By evaluating the short-term goals set by governments, the study estimates CO2 levels would rise by 13 per cent rather than drop to 45 per cent by 2030. (Matt McGrath, “Climate change: COP26 promises will hold warming under 2C,” BBC, 13 April 2022)

Germany’s foreign minister meets Mali’s interim president to discuss Russia’s role
On 13 April, Germany advised Mali to stop working with Russian mercenaries and soldiers. Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock met with Mali’s interim president Assimi Goita to discuss Mali’s involvement with Russian troops and mercenaries. Mali underwent political turmoil and Goita came to power after two successful coups in 2020 and 2021. Germany has been pushing to democratize Mali as the country is witnessing corruption and judicial impunity under the military regime. After France withdrew its troops from Mali, countries of the EU were pressured to face security threats. The stationing of German troops expires in May, after which the German parliament plans to renew its contract to cooperate with the people of Mali. However, Mali’s ties with Russia and China are a matter of concern to Germany. (“Germany tells Mali to halt work with Russian mercenaries,” Deutsche Welle, 14 April 2022)


13 April 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #174

War in Ukraine: Day 48

Hungary rejects EU’s rule of law; Cyber-attack on Ukraine's power grids; Macron to compete with Marine Le pen 

Photo : Mikhail Klimentyev/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 48
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 12 April, Zelenskyy asked the European Union to further tighten the sanctions on Russian banks and oil, ‌‌to choke the funding for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He has also appealed to the African Union for their support in the fight and from Senegalese, Macky Sall confirmed the same. 

Deputy defence minister’s address
Deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar again issues a warning against Russia using chemical weapons against her country. She reiterated Zelenskyy’s words and said that the unverified reports of usage of chemical weapons in Mariupol were being checked.

Kyiv
Bucha, near Kyiv was one area where the Russian forces had wreaked havoc, killing, raping and torturing innocent civilians. French forensic experts have come down to Bucha, to examine what happened to the hundreds of bodies that have been discovered here.

Mariupol
On 12th April, Ukraine’s marines stationed in Mariupol expressed their dissatisfaction with Zelenskyy, as they were facing a dwindling of ammunition and stocks. They accused the president of abandoning them amidst a siege as if the fight in Mariupol was over. The brigade posted on Facebook regarding this and said: “For over a month, the marines fought without replenishment of ammunition, without food, without water, drinking from a puddle and dying in batches.”

Ukraine’s human rights representative reported that a cargo ship kept in the Mariupol port was detained by Russian forces. The ship contained 18 Ukrainians and one Egyptian who were taken along by the Russians.

Kharkiv
As the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine grows with each passing day, Kharkiv faced another round of anti-tank mine showers. Residents were forced to stay indoors while the de-mining unit arrived. Ukraine’s officials have said that this is the first time that the Russian forces have used such a tactic so far. 

Other developments 
On 12 April, Ukraine also captured Moscow’s most high-profile ally Viktor Medvedchuk, of the For Life party, who is also the leader of the Opposition platform. Ukraine’s officials said that the prisoners of war in Ukraine would need to be released if Russia wanted Medvedchuck to be freed. The Kyiv Independent released a photo of a handcuffed Medvedchuk on Twitter.

On the same day, the government also announced that the Russians had tried to hack into the country’s power grid, but Ukraine could manage it ‌well. However, experts are of the opinion that the Russian military group Sandworm is responsible.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin’s speech
In his address on Russia’s cosmonautics day, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin praised the troops for bravely and efficiently carrying out the military operations using modern weapons. He said: “This is the way it will be. There is no doubt about it. The objectives are absolutely clear, they are noble.” On the relations between Russia and Belarus, Putin said that both countries will collaborate on space infrastructure projects. In response, Belarus President Lukashenko said: “Know that no matter what the situation is, you can count on us, and the Russians can count on us. We will always be there.” On the constant levying of sanctions on Russia by the West, Putin said that Russia will become stronger with the sanctions. In the speech, he continued to denied on the claims of killings in Bucha and stated them as “fake.”

Warnings and accusations
Upon Finland and Sweden taking the initiative to join NATO, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has warned against the move. The initial demand placed by Russia before the invasion was to prevent NATO from extending its membership, with both the Nordic countries coming forward to submit applications to NATO has furthered tensions. According to Peskov: “the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation.”

Russia’s human rights commissioner declined the claims on refugees from Donbas regions being moved into Russia. The commissioner said that the refugees were not forced but had chosen to move into Russia. According to her: “I am saying with a high sense of responsibility that there have been no cases of forcible resettlement of refugees to Russia. Such allegations are lies. I have met with people at temporary accommodation centres personally. They told me the Ukrainian forces had kept them in cellars and used them as a human shield. All those people wished to be taken to safety in Russia.”

Russia’s representative to OSCE accused the West of triggering Ukraine to take a stanch military stance instead of diplomatic negotiation. He said: “We see how foreign patrons of the current Ukrainian authorities are persistently dissuading them from political and diplomatic ways.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry
On 12 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova questioned the operations of the special monitoring mission (SMM) of OSCE in Donbas. The SMM, which was established earlier in 2014, since the start of the war 500 SMM had left Ukraine. With the exit of the mission’s foreign diplomats, the labour contracts have been prolonged by one more year. The foreign minister of DPR called to end the operations of OSCE SMM.

Other developments
The satellite images on the footage of dead civilian bodies in Bucha was revealed by the New York Times on 19 March. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has contradicted the footage and claimed it was “staged.” On the unrecorded killing, Russia has so far blamed it on Ukraine.

On 12 April, TASS reported on the state of people in the DPR region. As per the report, due to continuous attacks from Ukraine’s military, the people in the region had been sustained without water, food, heating and gas. According to the Donetsk separatists group, immediate measures to repair the damages were being carried out, apart from them that it reported on how the Ukraine military had destroyed homes, social infrastructure and bridges in the area.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US

On 12 April, US president Joe Biden reiterated that he stood by the characterisation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine as “genocide.” He said: “I called it genocide because it has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of being able to be Ukrainian, and the evidence is mounting.” However, he further mentioned that he would let the international courts and lawyers decide whether Russia could be called the same. Biden also mentioned that he would be releasing one million barrels of oil per day from the US strategic reserves to counter Russia’s energy supplies.  

On the same day, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said they could not verify the reports of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine. However, claims of poisoning by chemical warfare were made by the leader of the Azov volunteer regime at Mariupol. Blinken mentioned: “We had credible information that Russian forces may use a variety of riot control agents, including tear gas mixed with chemical agents, so that would cause stronger symptoms to weaken and incapacitate entrenched Ukrainian fighters and civilians as part of the aggressive campaign to take Mariupol.” Blinken also expressed about the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons was a significant concern to the US. 

The UK
On 12 April, the head of the UK’s army chief General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith predicted a possible tactical stalemate in the Ukraine war. However, he mentioned how Russians could also be following “an operational pause” to regroup and focus on the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. He added: “Whether that proves to be the decisive battle or not, we are currently measuring this campaign in days. We ought to expect to measure it in months, if not – in the scheme of things – in years.” Nevertheless, the chief of the general staff stated that a frozen conflict or a tactical stalemate would not be favourable for the international community and Europe.  

Also, on 12 April, the UK’s armed forces minister James Heappey said they were investigating if Russian forces were using chemical weapons in Ukraine. The authorities said they had received intel from Mariupol, but neither British defence intelligence nor Kyiv was able to verify the claims. Heappey exclaimed that if evidence were found of such weapons being used, then “all options are on the table” in terms of a united international response. He further stated that he had confidence in the international courts. He added: “Everything that is happening in Ukraine is being catalogued and he will be held to account.” 

France
On 12 April, the presidential candidate Marine Le Pen stated that she broadly supported sanctions against Russia but did not support sanctions related to oil and gas. She justified her statement by stating that she did not want the French citizens to suffer the consequences of oil and gas were sanctioned. Earlier, she had backed Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.  

Belarus
On 12 April, Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko denied allegations of Russia’s atrocities in Bucha. He said these were staged and were a type of psychological operation carried out by the English to create a narrative against Russia. He further justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying, if they had not done it, Russian territory would have received a “crushing blow.” 

Poland
On 12 April, the government of Poland said it had arrested a Russian citizen on suspicion of spying. The Russian businessman was a long term resident of Poland but was allegedly collecting information about the country’s military capabilities and the locations and strengths of NATO troops stationed in the country.  

On the same day, a report by the Polish Border guard stated that 2.681 million people had fled Ukraine and entered Poland since the war began. However, recently the number of refugees coming in has decreased drastically. About 1.2-1.4 refugees only remain, and most of them have already left Poland as only 800,000 had registered for Polish ID numbers. 

Germany 
On 12 April, Germany’s energy regulator said the country had enough reserves to last till summer if supplies of Russian gas were cut off. Furthermore, the regulator said that Germany had improved its gas supplies since last month.  

Netherlands 
On 12 April, Dutch authorities stated that they had impounded 20 yachts belonging to Russia and Belarus. Fourteen yachts were still under construction, while six were in storage or undergoing maintenance. Moreover, four had been linked to entities on the EU sanction list. Dutch customs authorities said: “Because these 20 yachts are under increased surveillance, they are not authorised to be delivered, transferred or exported.” 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Lebanon 
On 12 April, Lebanon’s government said it had agreed to distribute USD 15 million to resolve the acute shortage of bread in the country. This comes as the country’s Muslims held fasts on account of the holy month. The government said it had dispersed the credit to importers to issue subsidised bread. The government further stated that they plan to open another USD 21 million credit after two or three weeks if the issues persist. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated Lebanon’s wheat supplies.  

World Food Programme
On 12 April, the WFP pleaded with the world to not ignore the food crisis globally. They said: “Don’t make us take food from children that are hungry to give to children that are starving.” The WFP stated that the war in Ukraine had caused budget cuts in some of their traditional donor countries. This fund cutting had affected the WFP’s food programmes in Yemen, Chad and Niger. 

On the other hand, many countries that do not depend on aid face a shortage of food grains as they depend on Russia and Ukraine for their needs. For example, Somalia gets about 60 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, while Eritrea imports nearly 97 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine. As a result, these import-dependent countries would have to now depend on other markets for their food stocks, which would likely come at a higher cost.  

World Bank
On 12 April, the World Bank announced that it would send USD 1.5 billion packages to Ukraine. They also assured that it would release aid to help countries affected by the war to deal with the surging food and energy prices. The Bank also stated that it would give Moldova a USD 100 million International Development Association payment. This comes as the World Bank released a report stating that Ukraine’s economic output would be slashed by 45 per cent due to the war.  

Nokia
On 12 April, Nokia announced that it would be withdrawing from the markets in Russia. This comes as the sanctions imposed by the West were causing disruptions to its businesses. CEO Pekka Lundmark said: “We just simply do not see any possibilities to continue in the country under the current circumstances.” At the same time, Russia has also been lately pushing companies to start building networks using Russian equipment and had asked Nokia to set up factories in the country.  

International religious leaders
On 12 April, a delegation of international faith leaders visited Ukraine to show solidarity with the people affected by the invasion. As reported by BBC: “The delegation will include monks, rabbis, Muslim clerics, Buddhist and Hindu religious leaders and the former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan William.” 

References: 
Alessandra Prentice, “French forensic experts in Bucha to help Ukraine investigate possible war crimes, Reuters,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Joe Tidy, “Ukrainian power grid 'lucky' to withstand Russian cyber-attack,BBC, 12 April 2022
Ukraine's Zelenskiy mocks Putin for saying war is going to plan,” Reuters, 13 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (April 12),” National Public Radio, 12 April 2022
Latest Developments in Ukraine: April 12,” Voices of America, 12 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war latest,The Guardian, 12, April 2022
BBC Live,” 12 April 2022
Bucha killings: Satellite image of bodies site contradicts Russian claims,” BBC, 12 April 2022
Ukraine War: Russia warns Sweden and Finland against Nato membership,” BBC, 12 April 2022
West doesn’t want diplomatic resolution of conflict in Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 12 April 2022
Over 500,000 people in DPR remain without water, heating following Ukrainian shelling,” TASS, 12 April 2022
Refugees from Donbass, Ukraine are not moved to Russia by force — ombudsman,” TASS, 12 April 2022
OSCE must explain what its mission in Donbass was doing — Russian Foreign Ministry,”
James Landale, “UK army chief predicts Ukraine stalemate,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022 
US President Joe Biden has stood by his characterisation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine as “genocide,” The Guardian live, 12 April 2022 
Joe Biden has implied that Vladimir Putin was committing genocide,” The Guardian live, 12 April 2022
US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the US cannot verify reports of possible chemical weapon use by Russia in Ukraine,” The Guardian live, 12 April 2022
Marine Le Pen opposes sanctions on Russian gas,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022 
Belarusian leader dismisses claims of Bucha atrocities,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
Adam Easton, “Poland arrests Russian on suspicion of spying,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
German gas could last into summer if cut off - energy regulator,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
2.7m refugees cross into Poland from Ukraine since the war began,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
UK minister has 'every confidence' in international courts,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
UK investigating claim Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
Dutch authorities have impounded 20 yachts due to Ukraine war sanctions,” The Guardian live, 12 April 2022
Imogen Foulkes, “How the Ukraine war is starving the world's neediest,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022
Religious leaders to visit Ukraine in show of solidarity,” BBC Live, 12 April 2022

David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, “World Bank to send Ukraine $1.5 billion as food, energy prices spike,” Reuters, 12 April 2022
Lebanon disburses funds to temporarily avert bread crisis, minister says,” Reuters, 12 April 2022
Devjyot Ghoshal and Uditha Jayasinghe, “Drugs running out, surgeries cancelled as Sri Lanka's health system buckles,” Reuters, 12 April 2022 
IMF sets up administered account to allow donors to fund Ukraine,” Reuters, 12 April 2022
Supantha Mukherjee, “Nokia to stop doing business in Russia,” Reuters, 12 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Macron will face a competitive second round 
On 12 April, after the first round of France's presidential elections, the incumbent president and candidate Emmanuel Macron have been aggressively campaigning around France, especially in rural areas. Since there are only two weeks left until the second round of the elections, Macron is trying to win as many voters as possible. This comes as the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is only a few points behind Macron. Macron was even seen talking with health workers and other social workers about some of the issues that they were facing. He further assured on increasing the retirement age for workers. The third-placed far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon advised his voters not to vote for Le Pen. Macron and Le Pen are trying to bring in Mélenchon's voters. (“Macron debates angry voters as campaign intensifies ahead of runoff,” Euronews, 13 April 2022)

HUNGARY
EU’s rule of law rejected by the majority in Hungary
On 12 April, following the latest election in Hungary, the EU is insistent on upholding the bloc's Rule of Law in the country. Prime minister Viktor Orban won his re-election with an overwhelming victory. The EU, which is on bad terms with Orban, is determined to uphold its rule of law in Hungary. The Hungarian justice minister Judit Varga said that the EU should not concentrate on matters such as these when there is a war going on. She also said that everyone should work together and face the crisis. But the EU is adamant about practising the rule of law even if the majority of the country had elected a government that disregards it. Orban hasn’t let refugees from Ukraine into his country. Hungary’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has received a lot of criticism, especially from its ally Polland. (“EU determined to uphold rule of law following Orban's re-election in Hungary,” Euronews, 13 April 2022)

THE UK
Prime minister Boris declined to step down over Downing party accusations
On 13 April, prime minister Boris Johnson, his wife Carrie, and chancellor Rishi Sunak were fined for violating the lockdown restrictions of 2021. Opposition parties accused Johnson and Sunak of lying to the public about their presence at the Downing Street event. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and the first ministers of Scotland and Wales called for their resignations. Johnson apologized and said he felt “an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people.” Sunak also responded by stating: “I understand that for figures in public office, the rules must be applied stringently in order to maintain public confidence.” However, they declined to step down from their posts. (Jennifer Scott, “Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak reject calls to resign over lockdown fines,” BBC, 13 April 2022)

UKRAINE
Major cyber-attack on power grids averted
On 12 April, deputy chairman of the state service of special communications, Viktor Zoha, revealed that they narrowly escaped a major cyber attack on the country’s power grids by the Russians. Hackers attempted to shut down substations at one of the country’s primary energy firms, which may have resulted in blackouts for two million people. Zoha stated that the attack was planned for 08 April. Researchers suspect Sandworm, a Russian military group, of the attack. Sandworm is also accused of outages in several Ukrainian towns and cities in 2021. Although Russia denies responsibility for the cyber-attacks, the US and EU have officially accused Sandworm of both events, and cyber authorities have named several suspects. (Joe Tidy, “Ukrainian power grid ‘lucky’ to withstand Russian cyber-attack,” BBC, 13 April 2022)


12 April 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #173

War in Ukraine: Day 47

Germany’s family minister steps down amid vacation controversy; UK to develop a prototype to control SKA; EU plans to revamp roadways and railways

Photo : Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko


War in Ukraine: Day 47
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy's everyday address and attacks in eastern Ukraine

Zelenskyy’s address
On 11 April, Zelenskyy in his address issued a warning that Ukraine might use “chemical weapons” and said that they were treating it with “utmost seriousness.” He stressed on the Russian oil embargo, as he feels that only oil-related sanctions can sufficiently bring the Russian powers down. Zelenskyy said: "It is time to make this package in such a way that we would not hear even words about weapons of mass destruction from the Russian side… An oil embargo against Russia is a must. Any new package of sanctions against Russia that does not affect oil will be received in Moscow with a smile." He further asked for aid and help from South Korea and thanked the parliament for agreeing to the sanctions imposed by the US on Russia.

Deputy prime minister’s updates
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshhchuk announced that 4,354 people have been evacuated from Ukrainian cities through humanitarian corridors on Monday. 556 of them were from Mariupol, where the war has been intensely on since 24 February. She also accused Russia of holding civilians, including journalists, activists and elected officials as prisoners in their territories, both in and outside Ukraine. Russia however has kept on denying targeting civilians.

Eastern Ukraine
As the war shifts from the northern parts of the country to the eastern parts, the Russian aggression in the region also increases, in places like Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Mariupol.  

Mariupol
On 11 April, a toxic substance was dropped on Mariupol late at night. This was first reported in the form of a Telegram message by the Azov Regiment which is a part of the Ukrainian National Guard. The Azov message said Russian forces used “a poisonous substance of unknown origin.”  The Ukrainian MP and chair of the parliamentary committee on the integration of Ukraine into the EU said that it was “most likely” chemical weapons. The mayor of the city, Vadym Boychenko said that the death toll in Mariupol which has been under attack since 24 February has crossed 10,000 and could cross 20,000. 

Donetsk
The Donetsk region saw a new attack where three people were killed and eight civilians were wounded. The news of the strike was revealed by the region's governor Pavlo Kyrylenko on the Telegram messaging app. However, the head of Donetsk’s rebel region Denis Pushilin warned that the operation will now be intensified further. Pushilin said: "The more we delay, the more the civilian population simply suffers, being held hostage by the situation. We have identified areas where certain steps need to be accelerated." 

Kharkiv
On 11 April, Kharkiv faced heavy shelling by the Russian forces. This has caused several casualties which include the death of a child. However, mayor Ihor Terekhov mentioned that the Ukrainian forces were prepared for the worst and said: "There is no panic in the city.”

Other developments
On 11 April, the process of exhuming the bodies of Ukrainians found in mass graves in Bucha has been started. The bodies will be sent for forensic tests to prepare them for proper burial.

On 11 April, the UN Human Rights Office released a report on the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine. Including the 1,842 killed, and 2,493 injured, there have been 4,335 civilian casualties so far. The report also said that most of these casualties were due to the use of explosive weapons, including shelling from heavy artillery and missile and airstrikes.

On 11 April, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry welcomed IMF’s move on opening a new account for donors and international organisations to send funds to support Ukraine. At the same IMF said: “Donors will benefit from the IMF's tested infrastructure to quickly deliver authenticated payments.” So far, the Ukraine government was expecting EUR four billion in foreign financing to handle its budget shortage.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Claims, warnings and accusations
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov affirmed that Russia will not stop its war operation in Ukraine, even during the negotiation talks take place. He alleged the West for slowing down the progress of talks by accusing Russia of war crimes. He said: “After we became convinced that the Ukrainians were not planning to reciprocate, a decision was made that during the next rounds of talks, there would be no pause (in military action) so long as a final agreement is not reached.”

On 11 April, the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia will be launching an offensive on Mariupol, Kyiv and other cities in the east. He said: “I assure you: not one step will be taken back.”

Russia’s Defence Ministry released a statement claiming the attack on 86 military units in Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv. According to major general Igor Konashenkov, two control points, two ammunition warehouses, three combustion warehouses and 49 military equipment were shelled down by the Russian troops. Apart from this it also reported on the destruction of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and Su-25 aircraft using its cruise missiles. The S-300 missiles were given to Ukraine by Slovakia. Ukraine’s military is yet to confirm the attack. According to the statement from the Russian Ministry: “High-precision sea-launched Kalibr missiles destroyed the equipment of an S-300 anti-aircraft missile division which had been delivered to the Kyiv regime by a European country.”

Other developments
Russia’s Foreign Ministry barred 45 Polish embassies and consulate staff as a countermeasure to the recent expelling of Russian diplomats across Europe. In the recent week, Poland, Finland, and Bulgaria have been on the spin in removing Russian diplomats.

On 11 April, TASS reported that close to 17,000 people along with 2500 children had been moved out from Lugansk and Donetsk regions into Russia considering the increased military activity in the region. Russia’s National Defense Management Center, the chief reported that under Russia’s special military operation, till now 740,000 people had been evacuated. He added: “Over the past day alone, the Russian side received 934 such requests.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US

On 11 April, in the meeting with India’s prime minister, US president Joe Biden said that India’s stance on the Ukraine war was “somewhat shaky.” In the statement released by the US: “mitigating the destabilising impacts of Russia's war against Ukraine.” So far, the US has not pointed out India for its neutral stance on war but has given warnings.

Canada
On 11 April, Canada announced to impose sanctions on Russia’s defence sector companies. The new round of sanctions imposed restricts 33 entities in Russia’s defence sector who have been supplying the forces with arms and ammunition for its war in Ukraine. A statement by the government mentioned: “Canada continues to monitor the situation, coordinate actions with its international partners and explore options for new measures.” 

The EU
The EU which released the fifth set of sanctions on Russia, recently added 21 Russian airlines to the list banned from flying above the EU, as it fails to meet the international safety standards. Commissioner for transport pointed out that the airlines that were operated did not have a valid certification of “airworthiness.” Till now, the EU skies have banned 117 such companies.

Lithuania
On 11 April, Lithuania requested NATO to supply battalions to the Baltic countries. Till now four “multinational battalions have been installed by NATO as a counter to Crimean annexation. Since the Russian invasion, the countries in eastern Europe have been calling for more troops and military support.

Hungary
For the gas purchased from Russia, Hungary will be paying in euros to Gazprombank, which will, in turn, convert it into roubles and send it to Russia. The move comes after prime minister Victor Orban agreed to pay for the Russian gas in roubles. In the past weeks, Putin has been warning the European countries in paying back in roubles for the oil and gas bought from Russia.

The UK
On 11 April, the UK’s Ministry of Defense reported that clashes between Russian and Ukraine forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk region have resulted in the destruction of Russia’s several military equipment and vehicles. The UK intelligence also found the use of phosphorous munitions in the Donetsk by Russia, providing a possibility for usage in Mariupol. The attacks and bombings have threatened the lives of many civilians.

Other countries
Joining the list of other countries, Croatia has asked 24 Russian embassy staff along with diplomats to exit the country for invading Ukraine. In the statement, it said: “brutal aggression on Ukraine and numerous crimes committed (there).”

A volunteer group called the Sunflower Scotland has sent 110 tonnes of animal food to the shelters located in Dnipro, which have been deserted by the people. The organization raised more than EUR 30,000 and basic supplies for families in Ukraine.

Countries surrounding Ukraine, the Belgorod, Voronezh, Bryansk and Krasnodar regions, which are part of Crimea have planned to boost their border security. They have asked the citizens to be prepared as they fear anti-terrorist security issues. The region is alerted to carry out checkpoints at the borders, evacuation plans, and special attention to uncommon vehicles.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Egypt
On 11 April, the Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) reported that inflation in Egypt had reached 12.1 per cent in March 2022. This was almost three times of 2021 when the rate was 4.8 per cent. According to CAPMAS, the hike in inflation was a direct effect of the war in Ukraine, which had increased the prices of food, housing, and medical service industries in Egypt.

India
On 11 April, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi discussed the war in Ukraine with US President Joe Biden on a video conference. The two leaders discussed the pandemic, the global economy, and the war’s implications in Ukraine. Biden said the US would “continue our close consultations on the consequences of Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine and mitigating its destabilising impact on global food supply and commodity markets”. Biden also indirectly conveyed the US’ displeasure as Russia sought new markets for its oil exports amid sanctions from the West. Moreover, India was using the opportunity to buy around six billion barrels of oil. The meeting comes in a follow up to the US deputy national security adviser Daleep Singh's visit, where he had asked the Indian government not to rapidly increase their purchases of Russian oil. 

Later, PM Modi urged Russia’s President and Ukraine’s President to hold direct talks. PM Modi furthermore discussed the situation with Biden and shared how India was concerned about the implications of the war and stated that New Delhi even condemned the killing at the UN general assembly. He added: “We have also emphasised the security of civilians in Ukraine and unhindered humanitarian supply and assistance to them.”

North Korea
On 11 April, North Korea denounced Russia’s suspension from the UN human rights council. North Korea was one of the 24 countries that had voted against the move. A government statement said: “What the US is after... is to isolate the independent countries, and forces challenging them at the international arena, so as to maintain its illegal and inhumane US-led hegemonic order.” North Korea further accused the US of using international organisations as a means for the US to put political pressure on other countries. 

New Zealand
On 11 April, prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced that it would be sending the country’s Hercules aircraft and 50 personnel to Europe. Ardern said: “Our support is to assist the Ukraine army to repel a brutal Russian invasion because peace in the region of Europe is essential for global stability.” The personnel will be deployed for two months in support of Ukraine and would additionally give the country financial support of USD 8.8 million. The defence aircraft will be used to carry equipment and supplies across Europe and to crucial distribution centres. 

Yemen
On 11 April, the Tribune reported the implications of the war in Eastern Europe on Yemen. This comes as Ukraine was a major supplier of grain to the country, and due to the restrictions on export, Yemen is likely to see a famine. Yemen is an import-dependent country for food items, and nearly one-third of its wheat supplies come from Ukraine. 

World Bank
On 11 April, the World Bank reported that it expects Ukraine’s economy to shrink by 45 per cent due to the war. The report also mentioned how the economic damage caused in Europe and Central Asia would have a worse impact than what COVID-19 did. Ukraine, a crucial supplier of wheat and sunflower oil, has not been able to export its commodities due to war and as Russian forces blockaded its ports. 

The UN
On 11 April, the director of the UN’s women’s agency Sima Bahous called for investigations into Russia’s violence against women during the war in Ukraine. Bahous said: “We are increasingly hearing of rape and sexual violence. These allegations must be independently investigated to ensure justice and accountability.” She further mentioned that the combination of conscripts, mercenaries, and the recent reports of Bucha had raised all red flags. 

Also, at the UN security council meeting, US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: “When men like President Putin start wars, women and children get displaced, women and children get hurt. Women and children get raped and abused and women and children die.” She exclaimed about the situation in Ukraine and the plight of women and children. 

References: 
Narendra Modi has urged Putin and Zelensky to meet directly,” BBC Live, 11 April 2022 
Biden to speak with Modi amid criticism of India’s crude imports,” BBC Live, 11 April 2022
North Korea blames US for Russia’s expulsion from UN human rights body,” BBC Live, 11 April 2022
New Zealand sends team to help Ukrainian aid effort,” BBC Live, 11 April 2022
“Ukraine’s economy to shrink by 45% - World BankBBC Live, 11 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war latest,” The Guardian Live, 11 April 2022
IMF sets up administered account to allow donors to fund Ukraine,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
2+2 India-US talks: Ukraine looms large over Modi-Biden meeting,” BBC, 11 April 2022
Ukrainian War: Scots send aid for the pets left behind,” BBC, 11 April 2022
Over 17,000 people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia in past day,” TASS, 11 April 2022
UK says Russian shelling has continued in Donetsk and Luhansk,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
Chechen chief Kadyrov says Russian forces will take Kyiv,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
Russia says it destroyed S-300 missile systems given to Ukraine by European state,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
 “EU adds 21 Russian airlines to those banned in EU,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
Andrius Sytas, “Lithuania wants NATO to expand Baltic battalions into brigades,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
Russia will not pause military operation in Ukraine for peace talks,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
Hungary says roubles-for-Russian gas plan breaches no EU sanctions,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
Russian regions bordering Ukraine step up security,” Reuters, 11 April 2022
UN ‘increasingly hearing of rape and sexual violence’ against women in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 11 April 2022
Egypt’s inflation rate spikes in March amid Ukraine war,” Africa News, 11 April 2022 
Famine-threatened Yemenis fear impact of Ukraine war,” Tribune, 11 April 2022 
Canada imposes sanctions on Russian defence sector over Ukraine invasion,” Reuters, 11 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

GERMANY
Family minister Anne Spiegel steps down due to political pressure
On 11 April,  Germany's family minister Anne Spiegel decided to step down as controversies emerged about her and her family going on a vacation right after the devastating floods of 2021. Spiegel is a member of the Greens party and was asked to step down to avert damage to the office amid political challenges. During the flood times, she held the position of state environment minister in the region of Rhineland-Palatinate. The flood killed 170 people and was Germany's most lethal flood in six decades. Her decision to step down came ahead of the region's elections that are to be held in May. ("Germany's family minister steps down after vacation controversy," Reuters, 11 April 2022) 

THE UK
Institutions to develop a prototype to control the Square Kilometre Array(SKA)
On 11 April, institutes in the UK stated that they were planning to build a prototype "brain" to control the world's largest radio telescope that has antennas spread across South Africa and Australia. The software built will be first trialled in smaller subsets, and later be deployed across the network. RAL Space astronomy group leader Dr Chris Pearson mentioned the computing challenges as the SKA comprises 197 dishes and 130,000 antennas. The UK's Science & Technology Facilities Council has been a leading contributor to the SKA Organisation as it had committed 15 per cent of the total cost for the years 2021 to 2030 for its construction and the initial operations. (Jonathan Amos, "SKA: UK to build software brain for giant radio telescope," BBC, 11 April 2022)

Member of Parliament, David Amess' killer, convicted 
On 11 April, Ali Harbi Ali, a follower of the Islamic State, was found guilty of murdering the Conservative MP David Amess. Ali stabbed Amess 30 times outside a church in October 2021. He was charged with murder and preparing acts of terrorism as he claimed that he targeted the MP for his vote towards airstrikes on Syria. However, he denied the charges, pleaded not guilty and said he did not regret murdering the MP. He further mentioned: "If I thought I did anything wrong, I wouldn't have done it." The death of Amess has also led the government to question the personal security of British MPs. (Esther Webber, "Islamic State terrorist convicted of British MP's murder," POLITICO, 11 April 2022)

REGIONAL
The EU plans to revamp roadways and railways to improve military movements 
On 08 April, the war in Ukraine highlighted the need for the EU to reverse its neglect of roads and railways. The EU met with many hindrances to transport its tanks and other military vehicles across the continent as it faced many bottlenecks and had to buttress its tracks and bridges. A former commander of the US Army in Europe said: "The further east you go, the infrastructure does not support the heavyweight of U.S., German, British and Dutch tanks, it's the bridges." The Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) had earlier allocated EUR 1.7 billion to improve military mobility, which was a reduced budget from the EUR 6.5 billion that was initially proposed. The countries agreed to bring the issue of project funding up in the next round of meetings to be held in May. (Hanne Cokelaere and Joshua Posaner, "Europe's roads and railways aren't fit for a fight with Russia," POLITICO, 08 April 2022)


11 April 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #172

War in Ukraine: Day 45 & 46

Climate activists disrupt fuel supplies; Pope calls for an Easter truce between Ukraine and Russia

Photo : BBC


War in Ukraine: Day 45 & 46
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Rishma Banerjee
War on the ground: Zelenskyy meet with Boris Johnson,
Zelenskyy’s address

On April 09, Zelenskyy’s addresses came as UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv. Zelenskyy said: “This will be a hard battle, we believe in this fight and our victory. We are ready to simultaneously fight and look for diplomatic ways to put an end to this war… When tyranny begins its aggression against everything that keeps the peace in Europe, action must be taken immediately.” He further thanked Johnson for his support as the UK promised to offer additional financial and military support. This includes 120 armoured vehicles, anti-ship missiles and World Bank loans, amounting to EUR 100 million .

On 10 April, Zelenskyy said: “They have destroyed the lives of millions. They started a full-scale war and act as if we are to blame for this.” He also reiterated that Ukraine is ready for the upcoming days, and thanked the "18 defenders of Ukraine", including the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Special Communications Service, police officers and police officers for their bravery and heroism.

He also spoke to the German chancellor Olaf Scholz, about imposing additional sanctions on Russia and about more defence and financial support for Ukraine.

Kyiv after Russia's withdrawal
On 10 April, in the aftermath of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv, a grave with dozens of civilians was found, near a petrol pump in Buzova village. Taras Dydych, head of the Dmytrivka community that includes Buzova said: “Now we are returning to life but during the occupation we had our 'hotspots', many civilians died.”

First staff rotation in Chernobyl after three weeks
On 10 April, for the first time in three weeks, a staff rotation was carried out in Chernobyl, which the Russians had taken over on 24 February. Workers recounted to the BBC the tough conditions they had to face in order to survive in the nuclear power plant, which is now back under Ukraine’s control.

Destruction in Dnipro
On 10 April, an airport in the Dnipro was destroyed by a Russian strike. The Head of the city's military administration said that the airport itself and the infrastructure around it has been destroyed by the shelling. 
On 09 April, a large depot of ammunition was destroyed in the central-eastern Dnipro region of Novomoskovsk.

Eastern Ukraine: Updates from Luhansk, Mariupol and Kramatorsk
On 10 April, Maxar Technologies captured imagery that showed a large military convoy stretching for more than eight miles, in north-eastern Ukraine. A researcher from the Institute for the Study of War said that it was a Russian convoy, which was heading south from Velykyi Burluk.

On 10 April, the regional governor said that the death toll due to the missile attack on a train station in Kramatorsk had risen to 57.

On 09 April, the governor of Luhansk Serhiy Haidai urged civilians in Luhansk, in the eastern part of Ukraine to flee the area as soon as possible as more and more Russian forces entered the area. This comes after more than 50 civilians trying to evacuate were killed in a Russian missile attack, in a neighbouring area. Russian troops hit a nitric acid tank near Rubizhne, which is dangerous because nitric acid is a highly corrosive agent. Gaidai said: "They (Russia) are amassing forces for an offensive and we see the number of shelling has increased.” This renewal of Russian effort in the eastern and southern part of Ukraine comes after Moscow’s troops withdrew from Kyiv.

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister informed that 10 humanitarian corridors are likely to be set up, for the safe evacuation of the people from across the country, and especially from the Mariupol region. Civilians in the Mariupol, Enerhodar, Tokmak, Berdyansk and Melitopol regions can evacuate to Zaporizhzhia, and those in Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Hirske and Rubizhne can evacuate to the city of Bakhmut. While several attempts have been made earlier to evacuate civilians from this region, they have all failed so far. The deputy prime minister reiterated that it can happen only if Russian troops maintain a ceasefire.

Other developments:
Zelenskyy thanked the Austrian chancellor, Karl Nehammer for his visit to Ukraine and for his support to the country. Nehammer is open to start negotiating with Russia to facilitate a conversation with Ukraine. Zelenskyy said: "It is a very important signal for us. A signal to the whole of Europe that Austria supports Ukraine, the Ukrainian people in its resistance to the aggression of the Russian Federation.”

On 09 April, Iryna Vereshchuk announced that Ukraine and Russia had conducted their third prisoner exchange. Due to the deal, 12 soldiers and 14 civilians are coming home to Ukraine. However, she did not mention the number of Russians who had been released.

On 10 April, Ukraine’s top prosecutor Iryna Venediktova said that the authorities had evidence to claim 5,600 alleged cases of war crimes, and had 500 suspects being monitored.

Also on the same day, according to a UNHRC report released, around 4.5 million people have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Kyiv trying to provoke Russian troops 
On 10 April, Russia’s National Defense Management Center claimed that Kyiv was plotting with the West to provoke Russian forces by blaming them for a staged massacre of civilians in the Lugansk People’s Republic region. Chief Mikhail Mizintsev said that reporters of foreign mass media outlets were arriving in the area to record the staged actions by the Ukrainian army. He also mentioned how the Ukrainian nationalists were mining reservoirs with Chronire at a water utility to blow them up when the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) forces approached the city. 

Anatoly Antonov on Russia’s operation in Ukraine
On 10 April, Russia’s ambassador to the US said that the West was inciting further bloodshed in Ukraine as it continued its supply of weapons. He said: “The special military operation in Ukraine is a result of the Kyiv regime’s unwillingness to stop the genocide of Russians through the implementation of its obligations under international agreements.” On the US’ supply of weapons, he reiterated that its actions were dangerous and provocative as those weapons were being used against Russia. Antonov questioned the Pentagon’s role in the biological laboratories in Ukraine and he further raised concerns about establishing bio-laboratories along the Russian border.   

He also stated that Moscow was taking necessary measures to ensure the safety of civilians and maintain the normal operations of the nuclear facilities in Ukraine. He said the strikes made by Russian forces were high-precision weapons that only struck military targets. Antonov reiterated that Russia’s goal was to “…put an end to the genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime and ensure a nuclear-free and neutral status of Ukraine.”  

Evidence of a US defence funded biological program 
On 10 April, Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson said evidence was unearthed during Russia’s military operation that Kyiv tried to eliminate traces of a US Department of defence-funded military biological program in Ukraine. He added that Ukrainian laboratories’ staffers testified that diseases like plague, tularaemia, cholera and other diseases were urgently eliminated before 24 February. 

Prisoner exchange 
On 09 April, Russia’s Human Rights Commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova confirmed that Russia and Ukraine held a prisoner exchange. Moskalkova said four employees of the state atomic energy corporation Rosatom along with soldiers and civilians, were returned to Russia. On the same day, an exchange of 32 Russian truck drivers and 20 Ukrainians took place; on its sidelines, Belarusian nationals were also exchanged. Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk added that 14 civilians were returned to Ukraine as a part of the exchange. 

Head of Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill calls on people to rally with Russia
On 10 April, Kirill called on the people of Russia to rally with the authorities in Moscow as they continued their military intervention in Ukraine. In his prayers Kirill mentioned: “Let the Lord help us unite during this difficult time for our Fatherland, including around the authorities.” Kirill is a close ally of Putin, and his calls show the Orthodox Church’s support for the Kremlin. 

Attacks and ammunitions 
On 10 April, Russia’s attack helicopters said they destroyed a convoy of Ukraine’s armoured vehicles and anti-aircraft equipment. Reuters noted that the ministry even published video footage of the attack. The video clearly shows how the KA-52 helicopters flew at low altitudes and launched missiles and bullets at the targets on the ground. 

On 09 April, Russia said it had destroyed the ammunition depot at the Myrhorod Air Base in central-eastern Ukraine. Russia’s spokesperson said a MiG-29 fighter and a Mi-8 helicopter were also destroyed in the attack. Furthermore, Russian forces destroyed an ammunition depot near the city of Novomoskovsk. 

Impact of the war on Russia’s science and research 
On 10 April, Russia’s remote Northeast Science Station on the banks of the Kolyma River in Siberia will have fewer/no international scientists visiting this year. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry froze its funding used to pay personnel at the station. The station was crucial for understanding climate change in the Arctic environment. Russian environmental scientist Dmitry Shchepashchenko said: “Emotionally, I can understand this suspension…This is a lose-lose solution. Global issues like climate change and biodiversity ... can hardly be solved without Russian territory [and] the expertise of Russian scientists.”

Russia accuses the EU of closing borders to cargo vehicles
On 10 April, Russia claimed that the EU had closed its countries' borders, affecting the movement of cargo vehicles registered in the two countries. This comes as the EU had adopted sanctions against Russia, which also prevented vehicles and vessels from entering the bloc. Russia’s customs office said that vehicles were used as international transport but had been registered in the two countries would also not be allowed to move goods on EU territory. 

Russia stages war games in Kaliningrad
On 09 April, Russia mentioned that it had staged war games in the enclave of Kaliningrad. Russian Baltic Fleet Command’s press service said: “Up to 1,000 military personnel... and more than 60 military equipment units were involved in the control checks.” At the same time, 20 Su-27 fighters and Su-24 front-line naval aviation bombers conducted their combat training. They simulated wartime exercises and simulated attacking low-speed air and ground targets. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US

On 09 April, an official from the West revealed the replacement of a Russian war commander from Ukraine operations. The reason behind the decision was due to the new general’s extensive experience. According to the official, the war tactics of Russia are observed to be limited and predicted that it might lose in short in attempting to succeed in the objectives.

The EU
In the fifth set of sanctions adopted by the EU, it targets 216 individuals, freezing their assets and imposing a travel ban, which includes Putin’s daughters. Along with the ban on coal imports, it has not extended to wood, vodka, and chemical products which comprise 10 per cent of imports from Russia. Apart from given, additional sanctions have been brought on jet fuel, transportation equipment, quantum computers, advanced semiconductors and trucks from both Russia and Belarus.

On 10 April, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen pledged EUR one billion to aid Ukraine in terms of treating refugees. The aid will be divided into two parts, where 600 million will be sent to Ukraine and the UN. The remaining 400 million will go to those states receiving refugees at the front. Apart from this global government, business leaders, and banks vowed to send EUR 10.1 billion to Ukraine for dealing humanitarian crisis.

The EU after 44 days of the war, opened back its embassy in Kyiv after previously shifting it to Poland. On the same, Italy has also planned to reopen its embassy in the capital city post easter.

Germany
On the phone call with president Zelenskyy, German chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that those responsible for the killings in Bucha to be held guilty for committing war crimes. He said: “We cannot overlook that this is a crime. These are war crimes we will not accept... those who did this must be held accountable.”

Finland
On 09 April, the Foreign Ministry of Finland announced the sending back of Russian paintings, status and antiques which were blocked by Finnish customs from entry. The items worth EUR 42 million were categorised as luxury goods that will be subject to economic sanctions. Hence the goods will be freed after the EU releases the regulations for artefacts.

On 10 April, Finland and Sweden's governments have come forward to apply for NATO membership before may 2022. Finland’s prime minister said: “We will have very careful discussions but not take any more time than we have to.”

NATO
On 10 April, in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, NATO's general secretary Jens Stoltenberg disclosed the plans of installing a permanent military at the border to deter Russia. He also added that the focus will remain to ensure NATO and its allies meet the minimum target of two per cent expenditure towards Ukraine.

The UK
On 10 April, during the visit to Ukraine, UK prime minister Boris Johnson assured to send 120 armoured vehicles, along with an anti-ship missile system to help Ukraine. In the statement released by Johnson after the meeting with Zelensky: “It is because of President (Volodymyr) Zelensky's resolute leadership and the invincible heroism and courage of the Ukrainian people that (Vladimir) Putin's monstrous aims are being thwarted.” Apart from the military aid, the UK has also agreed to provide USD 500 million to World Bank to lend to Ukraine with a loan guarantee of USD one billion.

The UK Ministry of Defence, intelligence unit revealed evidence, that Russia found to be targeting the civilians. According to the Ministry, Russia’s moving away from the North showed the mass graves and how it has used humans as shields. Apart from this it also found that Russia had been developing weapons to increase casualties and limit the freedom of the Ukrainian movement. It is also estimated that 7,000 to 15000 Russian soldiers have died in the war. The Defence Intelligence also warned about Russia's airstrike which was likely to occur in south and east, it remarked although the Russian forces were moving towards eastern Donbas, Ukrainian forces have been maintaining a strong block in not letting Russia establish a link from Crimea.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

World Bank
On 10 April, the World Bank released a report stating Ukraine’s economy to fall by 45.1 per cent. The major reasons for the decline are the shutting of businesses, cut down in exports due to the Russian invasion, blocking of Black Sea shipping and financial sanctions. The economists have added to this by saying the GDP of eastern Europe will also fall by 30.7 per cent.

The UN
The UN raised a concern about the rising food prices which have risen due to the Ukraine war. Basic commodities such as cereal, vegetable oil, and sugar have been added as part of the UN Food Prices Index where the table shows a hike of 13 per cent which is the highest rate in the last 60 years. This has resulted in creating fear amongst politicians as it will be a challenge to deal with social unrest coming out of a crisis situation.

Japan
Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida announced the expelling of eight Russian diplomats and the ban on importing of coal from Russia. He said: “Russia has repeatedly violated international humanitarian law by killing civilians and attacking nuclear power plants. These are unforgivable war crimes.”

Football
Shakhtar Donetsk, which is Eastern Ukraine's biggest football club has announced a peace tour in Greece calling for a friendly match against league leaders Olympiakos. The aim of the tournament is to raise money from the match and to provide for people affected by the war in Ukraine. The manager of the club said: “We want to talk about war and peace in Ukraine in these matches. The need to end this madness and return to normal life and to rebuild the country.”

UNHCR
UNHCR confirmed that close to 4.5 million people have fled Ukraine since the war. Amongst the composition, 90 per cent are counted to be women and children. Along with this IOM also reported that 210,000 non-Ukrainians seem to have left Ukraine. Till now Poland has been the only country with the highest number of refugees, hosting 2,593,902.

IAEA
The director-general of the IAEA reported on the current staff rotation that took place in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. It was found from the workers that, they faced critical challenges in keeping the plant running to keep the generator on power. On the damages, IAEA said: “destroyed and the analytical instruments stolen, broken or otherwise disabled.”

References: 
Zelenskiy braces for 'hard battle,' Boris Johnson visits with aid, Reuters, 10 April 2022
April 10, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news, CNN World, 10 April 2022
Ukraine Update: Johnson Meets Zelenskiy in Kyiv, Pledges Support, Bloomberg, 09 April 2022
More evacuations needed from Ukraine's Luhansk as shelling increases - governor, Reuters, 09 April 2022
Ukraine exchanges prisoners with Russia, 12 soldiers coming home, Reuters, 10 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (April 10), National Public Radio, 10 April 2022
Over 4.5 mn people have fled Ukraine since starting of war, says UNHCR, Business Standard, 11 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war latest news, The Guardian, 10 April 2022
Kiev plotting provocations with mass killings of civilians to accuse Russian troops,” TASS, 10 April 2022 
Russian operation a result of Kiev’s unwillingness to stop genocide of Russians - envoy,” TASS, 10 April 2022
Russia confirms prisoner exchange with Ukraine,” Reuters, 10 April 2022 
Head of Russia's Orthodox Church calls on people to rally around authorities,” Reuters, 10 April 2022 
Russian forces destroy Ukrainian military convoy, Interfax reports,” Reuters, 10 April 2022 
Gloria Dickie and Dasha Afanasieva, “Ukraine conflict hurts Russian science, as West pulls funding," Reuters, 10 April 2022 
Russia says EU closes borders for some cargo vehicles registered in Russia, Belarus,” Reuters, 10 April 2022 
Russian forces destroy ammunition depot at Ukrainian air base, Interfax reports,” Reuters, 10 April 2022 
Russia stages war games in Kaliningrad enclave, Ifax says,” Reuters, 10 April 2022
BBC Live,” 10 April 2022
Finland poised to request NATO membership as early as May,” Fox News Channel,” 10 April 2022
Ukraine's economy plunges amid Russian invasion — live updates,” Deutsche Welle, 10 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Fake news runs amok during the election
On 08 April, The French presidential election saw misinformation spreading around over the usage of Dominion voting systems. The Canadian company had already been under scrutiny during the 2019 US elections. There have been rumours going on on social media that electoral fraud was committed in the election by the usage of the Dominion Voting Systems. The people believe that the election is totally rigged. The Interior Ministry of France debunked the claims stating that France uses its own vote-counting system and denied any connection with the Canadian company. In a statement released by the ministry said "The results of the counting of the votes in each municipality are communicated in real-time ... by means of computer systems for centralising the results developed by the [ministry] computer services for several years." President Emmanuel Macron warned the people about misinformation and fake news. He also said that how they are a threat to democracy. (Matthew Holroyd, “French election 2022: Misinformation spreads online ahead of the first round vote,” Euronews, 11 April 2022)

SPAIN
Largest raid of Illegal stuffed animals in Europe
On 10 April, Spanish police conducted the largest taxidermy haul that Europe has seen. The Guardia Civil seized around 1000 specimens of illegal stuffed animals at an industrial warehouse in Betera, Valencia. The collection included extinct animals like scimitar oryx, endangered species like the Bengal tiger, and as well as other animals such as polar bears, lions, etc. The collection was found by Valencia police’s Nature Protection Team, who were investigating because of a suspicion. The worth of the collection is estimated to be around 29 million EUR(32 million USD). (Jessica Jones, “Lions, tigers and bears - Spain seizes one of Europe's biggest taxidermy hauls,” Reuters, 11 April 2022)  

THE UK
Climate activists disrupt fuel supplies and caused traffic jams
On 10 April, climate activists continued their demonstrations on oil refineries and disrupted their supplies. Clean energy protesters claimed to have interrupted supply from three oil terminals in the Midlands and southeast of England, leading to a few stations running out of fuel. In addition, extinction Rebellion protestors halted vehicles crossing Lambeth and Vauxhall bridges in central London, causing traffic jams. Hundreds of climate activists marched to Lambeth Bridge and played music, creating a festive atmosphere of protest. Cars and buses came to a halt, but protestors dispersed to let ambulances pass. The police stated that they had made 38 arrests. (Helen Pidd, “Climate activists ‘disrupt supplies from three oil terminals in England,” The Guardian, 10 April 2022)

Opinion polls on wind farms and nuclear energy
On 10 April, following the release of the UK’s energy security plans, the Guardian reported on the findings of its opinion poll on the favorability of wind farms and nuclear energy. According to the opinion poll, 79 per cent of conservative voters favoured wind farms being built in the UK, compared to 83 per cent of Labour supporters, and 88 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters. Two-thirds of voters stated they would welcome the construction of a wind farm near their homes. In comparison, only 46 per cent of all voters supported the construction of new nuclear power plants and only 32 per cent voted for gas power plants. These findings indicate that government reasoning differs from the public’s understanding of the necessity to secure energy security while striving toward net-zero emissions. (Toby Helm and Robin McKie, “Three-quarters of Britons back expansion of wind power,poll reveals,” The Guardian, 10 April 2022)

Coloured representation missing in Commonwealth Games
The committee for Commonwealth Games were accused of excluding the people of colour in their executive position. The committee consisting mostly of white complained about not including the people of colour in any of the decisions taken for the Commonwealth Games. For the game scheduled to take place in July in Birmingham, people voiced their concerns over their representation. They said that any petitions or letters sent to the Commonwealth Games have gone unnoticed, as no one is taking any action about the issue. The people want to showcase the vibrant nature of the city and want to reflect diversity. The committee replied that they will look into the issue. (Jessica Murray, “Commonwealth Games cultural festival accused of sidelining people of colour,” The Guardian, 11 April, 2022)

VATICAN CITY
Pope Francis calls for an Easter truce between Ukraine and Russia
On 10 April, Pope Francis called for an Easter truce in Ukraine and questioned the worth of raising a victory flag "on a mound of debris" in an apparent allusion to Russia. He said: "Put the weapons down! Let An Easter truce started. But not to re-arm and resume combat but a truce to reach peace through real negotiations open to some sacrifices for the good of the people." Pope Francis spoke at the end of a Palm Sunday service in St. Peter's Square for about 50,000 people. This is the first time the public has been allowed to attend the service since 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. A few individuals in the congregation wore Ukrainian flags on the tips of their olive branches, and a woman who recited one of the prayers near the altar was clothed in the blue and yellow of the flag. (“Philip Pullelle, “On Palm Sunday, pope calls for Easter truce in Ukraine,” Reuters, 10 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Meta and Tiktok compete for growing their user base
On 09 April, the Guardian reported on the robust growth of TikTok, a Chinese-owned video platform worrying the biggest social media platform Facebook. TikTok is expected to catch up with YouTube by 2024, when both are said to earn USD 23.6 billion in ad income. The startup is winning the battle for the "sweet spot" of social network users, those aged 18 to 25, who are leaving Facebook, with parent company Meta attempting to halt the migration by luring them to Instagram. While Meta is a considerably more significant business, Zuckerberg has been compelled to mount a counter-offensive to strengthen and diversify his ad-based business model. Meta's strategy aims to capitalise on the Trump administration's allegation that Chinese corporations constitute a national security concern as possible conduits of personal data to Beijing. (Mark Sweney, “The rise of TikTok: why Facebook is worried about the booming social app,” The Guardian, 09 April 2022)

 


09 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #171

War in Ukraine: Day 44

Germany vows EUR 100 billion to NATO defence expenditure; Leaders of Spain and Morroco meet to improve ties; London protests against the use of fossil fuels

Photo : Reuters Graphics


War in Ukraine: Day 44
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

WAR ON THE GROUND
Attack on Kramatorsk train station; Situation of Makarov, Mariupol and Bucha
 

Zelensky’s interview with the CBS News
On 08 April, Zelensky, in his interview with CBS News, mentioned how Ukraine was “defending the right to live.” He further talked about how the right to defend was so costly as Russia was trying to infringe on Ukraine’s fundamental rights and values. His interview also covered the Bucha incident, and he responded by accusing Russia of war crimes. 

Kramatorsk: Attack on the train station
On 08 April, Ukraine’s officials mentioned that dozens of people were killed and over 100 were injured due to a rocket attack launched by Russia. The station was being used to disperse evacuees from the Donbas region. According to the governor, around five children were also killed in the attack. 

On the same day, Zelensky condemned the attack and said: “This is an evil that has no limits. And if it is not punished, it will never stop.” Ukraine’s national railway head stated that it was a deliberate attack to strike the passenger infrastructure and harm civilians. However, Russia denied it carried out the attack. 

Makarov: 132 bodies of civilians found
On 08 April, the mayor of Makarov said bodies of 132 civilians were found in the town located west of Kyiv. He added: “The occupiers destroyed almost all infrastructure, bombed [homes] and apartment buildings, completely destroyed hospitals and kindergartens.” 

Odessa: Weekend curfew
On 08 April, the Southern port city of Odessa imposed a weekend-long curfew citing potential missile threats from Russia. The warning came after Russia shelled the train station of Kramatorsk. As a result, Odessa’s regional military administration announced: “A curfew will be introduced in Odessa and the Odessa region from 9 p.m. on 09 April to 6 p.m. 11 April.”  

Bucha: Investigation on civilians killed
On 08 April, Ukraine’s forensic investigators exhumed the mass graves in Bucha and warped the bodies of the civilians who were killed by Russian troops. The prosecutor’s office in Bucha stated that out of 20 bodies exhumed, 18 had firearm and shrapnel wounds indicating atrocities by Russian forces. Bucha’s mayor further accused Russian troops of extra-judicial killings while retreating from Kyiv.  

Mariupol: 160,000 civilians trapped
On 08 April, the mayor of Mariupol said there were 160,000 civilians trapped in the port city with shortages of food, water and medicine. He further stated that 40,000 residents were forcefully deported to Russia.  

Also, on 07 April, Zelensky urged Greece’s parliament to use its influence and organise a rescue operation in Mariupol. However, the appearance of an ultranationalist Azov battalion member who identified as an ethnic Greek member outraged the opposition members of the parliament. 

THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
Russia expels Poland’s embassy and consulate staff
On 08 April, Russia expelled 45 of Poland’s embassy and consulate staff in retaliation for Warsaw’s expulsion of 45 Russian diplomats. Poland had stated that Russian diplomats were working as intelligence agents. Similarly, Russia retaliated and declared Poland’s staff “persona non grata”.  

Lavrov suggests Belarus be Ukraine’s security guarantor
On 08 April, Russia’s foreign minister recommended that Belarus should provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the future. Lavrov added: “At the request of the Ukrainian side, its neutral, non-bloc, non-nuclear status should be accompanied by security guarantees.”  

Russia destroys mercenary training centres near Odessa
On 08 April, Russia claimed to destroy foreign mercenaries’ training centres as part of its military campaign in Ukraine. A defence ministry spokesperson stated that high-precision missiles of the Bastion coastal missile system were destroyed. The centres were located near the Krasnosilka village, northeast of Odessa.  

Euro drops to 79 rubles
On 08 April, for the first time, the Euro declined to 79 rubles since June 2020. The dollar, too, lost 1.58 per cent to 74.55 rubles. Kremlin’s spokesperson on the negotiations with Ukraine.
On 08 April, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Russia was hoping to reach its objectives in Ukraine or the situation would end in talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in the next few days. Peskov added: “Substantive work is being carried out both on the military side, in terms of advancing the operation, and on the side of the negotiators who are in the negotiation process with their Ukrainian counterparts.” 
 

Response to the suspension from the UNHRC
On 07 April, the UN General Assembly passed the resolution to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. Russia’s representatives said that the steps were politically motivated and that they threatened to destroy the UN’s entire system. However, Russia is only suspended from the current membership, ending in 2023. 

Central Bank slashes its key interest rate
On 08 April, the Russian Central Bank decided to cut its key interest rate from 20 to 17 per cent. This comes after the interest rate had been hiked after Russian troops launched their offensive against Ukraine and a series of sanctions sent the ruble into a free fall. The statement released by the Central Bank stated: “Financial stability risks are still present but have ceased to increase for the time being, including owing to the adopted capital control measures.” However, the banks added that they would take further measures depending on the situation to deter a destabilisation of the economy.

Russia redirects its coal shipments away from the EU
On 08 April, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia is redirecting its coal supplies to other markets after the EU refused the shipments. This came as the EU released new sanctions on Russia that restricted its imports of coal from Russia and supplies of high-tech goods. 

THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 08 April, US president Joe Biden released a statement to appreciate the UN's move to vote out Russia from the UNHCR. He said: “This is a meaningful step by the international community further demonstrating how Putin’s war has made Russia an international pariah.” He condemned Russia for torturing, killing people and for violating human rights.

The US Department of Treasury blacklisted two Russian businesses from the US financial system. The companies were Alrose, which accounts for 28 per cent of global diamond mining and United Shipbuilder Corp, which deals in constructing Russia’s warships.

Biden accused Russia of the missile attack on the train station in Kramatorsk; he pointed out that Russia had targeted those civilians who were being evacuated safely. Apart from this, he thanked the government of Slovakia for sending a missile defence system to Ukraine and assured to supply Slovakia with the Patriot missile system.

The EU
On 08 April, the EU imposed an embargo on Russia’s coal imports. The embargo will come into practice from mid of August. While the EU plans for the next set of sanctions, the sanction on coal needs to be agreed upon by all the member states of the EU, this is likely to raise concern for Germany, considering its dependency on Russia.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited the town of Bucha to take a look at the ruins. She said: “It is the unthinkable has happened here, we have seen the cruel face of Putin's army.” In the meeting with President Zelensky, a questionnaire was given which will be a step for Ukraine to get the candidate status in the coming days.

Cryptocurrency
The EU, as part of the fifth package of sanctions on Russia, has levied a ban on coal, accessing EU ports and restrictions on transactions with four additional banks of Russia. It also targets crypto wallets, banks, currencies and trusts. The move comes to close down the loopholed exploited by individuals to access their cryptocurrencies.

Slovakia
Slovakia announced its decision to supply Ukraine with the S-300 surface-to-air missile system to strengthen its air defences. According to Slovakia’s Prime Minister Eduard Heger: “I believe that this defence system will help save as many innocent lives as possible from the aggression of Putin's regime.” In line with Biden’s statement, Slovakia has received surface to air missiles from Germany and the Netherlands as part of reinforcing the borders of eastern Europe.

Germany
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pointed out the displacement of people due to war inside Ukraine to be the “terrible consequences.” He said: “Many countries in Europe have hosted refugees, in particular, those along [Ukraine’s] borders – Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania - and we are very grateful to these countries.” Till now Poland holds the largest share of refugees, close to two million and Germany hosts more than 300,000.


Montenegro
Montenegro’s deputy prime minister announced the imposing of unspecified sanctions on Russia. He tweeted: “[The Montenegrin government] has adopted restrictive measures in response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.” Montenegro, although being a NATO member and a candidate for EU membership initially resisted sanctioning Russia concerning the effect on its tourism sector.

The UK
On 08 April, UK’s Defence Ministry reported that Russia had “fully withdrawn” from northern Ukraine and observed that Russia would need a week to redeploy its troops back in the region. The movement of arm troops is predicted to be going towards eastern Ukraine for the fight. It also expects the attacks and shelling to continue in the east and south of Ukraine. 

Following the trail of the US, the UK has also sanctioned Putin's daughters along with Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s daughter. Over the last few weeks, the UK has seized GBP 275 billion from Putin’s chest through direct measures and sanctions.

UK prime minister, Boris Johnson announced additional funding of GBP 100 million for supplying Ukraine with “high-grade military equipment.” Along with the equipment, Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, precision munitions, helmets, night-vision goggles, and body armour have also been planned to be sent to Ukraine. On the question of the UK sending tanks to Ukraine, Johnson said: “I’m in principle willing to consider anything by way of defensive weaponry to help the Ukrainians protect themselves and their people.”

THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
International implications of the Ukraine war

UNFAO
On 08 April, UNFAO reported on the highest record of price hike in grains, oil markets and food prices. It said, Ukraine and Russia being the largest exporters of basic agricultural products, the war has caused a ripple effect on exports of wheat, potash, phosphate, and fertilizers.

Australia
On 08 April, Australia transferred the first set of armoured military trucks as a gift to Ukraine. The Bushmaster vehicles will be used to transport soldiers into the war area and not for attacking purposes. Australia will further supply another 17 such trucks, till now it stands committed to providing military and humanitarian aid worth AUD 190 million to Ukraine.

India
India once again abstained from voting in the UN to expel Russia from the Human Rights Council. The statement said: “Since the inception of the Ukrainian conflict, India has stood for peace, dialogue and diplomacy. We believe that no solution can be arrived at by shedding blood and at the cost of innocent lives. If India has chosen any side, it is the side of peace, and it is for an immediate end to violence.” Despite giving a strong statement accusing Russia of the killings in the Bucha, India maintains a neutral stance in the UN.

Africa
The recent data shows that the confidence of South African businesses has slowed down due to the growing uncertainty of the market situation as the war continues. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) released a statement saying that the recovery that was seen in the post-pandemic period has gone extinct due to the unforeseen Russian invasion. It said: “South Africa's business confidence may struggle to maintain its current higher levels.”

References: 
Ukraine says attacks in eastern region of Donbas continue,” BBC Live, 08 April 2022
Haley Ott, “Ukraine says at least 52 people killed in Russian rocket attack on Kramatorsk train station,” Cbsnews, 08 April 2022 
Bodies of 132 people found in Makariv, says mayor,” BBC Live, 08 April 2022
Odessa imposes weekend curfew over ‘missile strike threat’,” The Times of Israel, 08 April 2022 
Ukrainian forensic investigators start exhuming bodies from Bucha mass grave,” Reuters, 08 April 2022 
Ukraine braces for expected Russian attacks in east — live updates,” Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022
"'Twenty-six bodies pulled from rubble in Borodyanka’," BBC Live, 08 April 2022
Zelensky: Destruction in Borodyanka 'much more horrific’,” BBC Live, 08 April 2022
"'We are defending the right to live' - Zelensky,” BBC Live, 08 April 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events on day 44,” Al Jazeera, 08 April 2022
Russia expels 45 Polish embassy and consulate staff in retaliatory move,” Reuters, 08 April 2022 
"Russia's Lavrov says Belarus should become security guarantor for Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 April 2022  
Russia says it destroyed training centre for mercenaries near Odesa,” Reuters, 08 April 2022  
Euro drops to 79 rubles first time from June 2020,” TASS, 08 April 2022 
Russia hopes to end special operation in Ukraine in ‘foreseeable future’ — Kremlin,” TASS, 08 April 2022 
Press review: UN ousts Russia from Human Rights Council and US to prolong Ukraine conflict,” TASS, 08 April 2022 
Russia redirects coal shipments from EU to other markets — Kremlin,” TASS, 08 April 2022 
Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 17% per annum, holds open prospect of further reduction,” TASS, 08 April 2022
UN General Assembly passes resolution on Russia’s suspension from Human Rights Council,” TASS, 08 April 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 08 April 2022
EU targets crypto asset services to Russia in latest round of sanctions over Ukraine war,” Euronews, 08 April 2022
South African business confidence slows in March on Russia-Ukraine war impact,” Reuters, 08 April 2022
EU countries agree on new Russia sanctions, including coal embargo,” Reuters, 08 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan, Sai Pranav, and Rishma Banerjee 

BELGIUM
Potential Salmonella contamination closes Kinder operations in Europe
09 April, all Kinder products from the Arlon factory have been recalled from stores due to the salmonella incident. The rise in cases of the salmonella bacteria can be seen all over western Europe and most of the patients who have been infected fall under the age of ten. The factory was shut down due to the non-disclosure of complete information for the investigation to Belgium’s food safety authority, the AFSCA. The AFSCA said that the factory can become operational only after Ferrero, the owner of Kinder provides guarantees that it followed food and safety regulations and also advised people not to eat Kinder products. Dozens of salmonella cases are suspected to be a result of the consumption of chocolate and the distribution of the products seems to come from the Arlon factory in Belgium. So far, the infections have spread to over nine countries. (“Kinder chocolate factory told to shut over salmonella cases,” BBC, 09 April 2022)

FRANCE
Macron accuses Poland’s prime minister of being ‘a far-right anti-Semite who bans LGBT people’
On 08 April, Macron said that France was willing to be a guarantor of peace when a ceasefire is finally reached between Ukraine and Russia. It is therefore important for him to negotiate with both Putin and Ukraine's president Zelensky. This is in response to Poland's prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki's criticism of France's president Emmanuel Macron, for holding regular conversations with Russia's Vladimir Putin. With Macron’s far-right rival Marine Le Pen closing in on the gap in the upcoming French presidential elections, Macron accused Morawiecki of assisting Le Pen and of being a “far-right anti-Semite who bans LGBT people”. This accusation comes considering how Poland is making it more difficult for Jewish people to recover lost property and making Poland a holocaust denier. A Polish foreign ministry spokesperson, Lukasz Jasina said "As a result of assertions by the French president in an interview with Le Parisien, Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau decided to summon the French ambassador." (“Macron calls Polish PM 'a far-right anti-Semite' in row over Putin talks,” BBC, 08 April 2022; “Poland summons French ambassador after Macron insults prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 08, April 2022)

Elections: Macron to face Le Pen in a close tie
On 08 April, BBC reported about the influence of the war in Ukraine and its impact on the elections in France. The current issues have favoured the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and her progress as an upcoming contestant in the presidential elections. The outcome of the French presidential election appeared to be in Macron's favour for months, as he was constantly topping polls and was anticipated to win a second term. However, just a day before the first-round voting Macron is dealing with a sudden surge in the popularity of Le Pen. Macron held a 14.5 per cent- point lead over Le Pen in March as Russia's war in Ukraine overshadowed the campaign and strengthened Macron's leadership credentials.  Nevertheless, it has been reduced by more than half, with Le Pen following Macron by two points. (Lucy Williamson, "French election: Far-right Le Pen closes in on Macron ahead of vote," Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022)

The French lack faith in the Greens party despite concern over climate change
09 April, the polls prior to the presidential election show that French people lack confidence in the Greens Party even though they worry about climate change. The Greens candidate Yannick Jadot seems to have failed to garner popularity among his voters. He is only 5 to 6 per cent ahead in the recent poll and received similar results in the 2002 elections with 5.25 per cent of votes. Jadot seems to have gained the trust of the French people only in terms of addressing the environmental issues and not with regards to issues such as health, and inequality. The people are observed to be in favour of the far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who also proposes environmental action against climate change. He has risen to be the third most popular in the recent polls after president Emmanuel Macron of La République en Marche (LREM) and Marine Le Pen of National Rally (NR). Many experts say that the Greens did not properly capitalise on the void left by the Socialist Party after its collapse in 2017. (Lauren Chadwick, “France election: Voters worry over climate change. So why are the Greens polling badly?,” Euronews, 08 April 2022)

GERMANY
Berlin's energy dependency on Moscow can be terminated by December
08 April, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) estimated that Germany could cut its Russian energy imports by the end of 2022. DIW issued a study proposing a three-pronged approach of supply diversification, storage and pipeline efficiency, and reduced industrial and residential consumption. DIW further suggested that conserving household electricity alone could cut the need for Russian gas by 18-26 per cent, while German industries could switch to other fuels like coal and biomass. Additionally, imports from Norway alone could cover a fifth of Russia's present yearly imports. The study also refuted the idea to construct new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals stating that long construction timeframes and diminishing natural gas demand make the import facilities unfeasible. ("Germany could be off Russian gas by winter says economic think tank," Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022)

Germany progresses toward NATO's defence commitments
On 08 April, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany's commitments to NATO's defence expenditure guidelines. In 2014, NATO members pledged to devote two per cent of their GDP to national security within ten years. Germany was progressively approaching that level but remained one of the large economies, still falling short until 2021. On 27 February, Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to rectify the shortfall, beginning with an additional EUR 100 billion for the armed forces. Another NATO expenditure guideline where Germany has been lagging was that its members had to devote 20 per cent of their yearly military spending to "major new equipment." However, recently, Scholz initiated plans to replace its Tornado fleet with the US-made F35 fighters and import missile systems and drones from Israel. ("William Noah Glucroft, "Germany checks one NATO box, leaves another open," Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022)

First democratically elected German chancellor staged a Watergate scandal 
On 08 April, independent researchers found researchers have found that Germany’s first democratically elected chancellor, Konrad Adenauer, spied on his political rivals through the country’s foreign intelligence service to maintain an upper hand for almost a decade. His collaboration with the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) chief, Reinhard Gehlen, helped him with inside information about the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Siegfried Ortloff, the SPD’s executive secretary at the time, acted as Gehlen’s informant, providing approximately 500 memos between 1953 and 1962, proving a tactical and strategic advantage to Adenauer. Klaus-Dietmar Henke, speaking on behalf of the research group looking into the matter said that this was eerily similar to Richard Nixon’s Watergate scandal, only, unlike Nixon’s efforts, this infiltration was a successful one. Henke says “...his chummy arrangement with the BND against the SPD confirms in the most drastic way possible that he was also a brutally callous power-seeker.”(Philip Oltermann, “Germany’s Watergate: 1950s chancellor used spy agency to infiltrate rival party,” The Guardian, 08 April 2022)

THE UK
Protests against the use of fossil fuels wreak havoc in London
On 08 April, two activists dangled themselves from the Tower Bridge, using suspension cords, and hung a banner that said "End fossil fuels now." This led the police to close the bridge till midday and arrest four people. The police also had to take action and arrest about 100 people amongst the ones protesting at a site in Kingsbury, an oil depot in Warwickshire in the last week, for criminal damage. The police spokesperson said, "We will always respect people's right to peaceful protest, but we are committed to taking action against those who break the law and significantly impact the lives and livelihoods of others." These protests were staged by the Extinction Rebellion (XR) and the Just Stop Oil Coalition, two activist organisations trying to protest against the use of fossil fuels in London, through peaceful non-violent protests, which have already been conducted in several areas across the country. (“Kingsbury oil depot protests lead to more than 100 arrests,” BBC, 08 April 2022; “Tower Bridge reopens after Extinction Rebellion protest,” BBC, 08 April 2022)

REGIONAL
Spain's prime minister visit Rabat to begin a new phase of relations with Morocco
On 07 April, Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez and Morocco's King Mohammed VI agreed to improve their strained relations on migration and initiate a new phase of cooperation. The Royal Palace of Morocco said the two leaders "reiterated their willingness to usher in a new phase, based on mutual respect, mutual trust, permanent consultation, and frank and faithful cooperation." The two countries' leaders pledged to engage in negotiations on the demarcation of Atlantic sea borders and airspace management. Furthermore, they will be reinforcing cooperation on migration, economy, and energy. Morocco also announced plans to import liquid natural gas by re-establishing an idle pipeline. ("Morocco, Spain mend ties after change in policy on Western Sahara," Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2022)


08 April 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #170

War in Ukraine: Day 43

Disputed Cambo oil fields to be developed by Ithaca Energy; EU hosts peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia; Criticisms arise over the UK’s Energy Security Plan

Photo : Alexis Moradian/US Marine Corps


War in Ukraine: Day 43
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the Ground:
Zelensky's address in the Cyprus Parliament 

Zelensky's address
On 07 April, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his daily address, highlighted that the damages and destruction in the Borodianka were worse than in Bucha. He said: "It's much more horrific there, there are even more victims of Russian occupiers." Apart from this, while addressing the Cyprus Parliament, he asked to revoke the passports issued to the Russians through the investment scheme. He thanked the Cyprus authorities for closing the port for Russian Yachts.

Ukraine Military
Ukraine's Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova reported the finding of 26 bodies in destroyed buildings of Borodianka town. He added that it has been the worst destruction compared to all towns, the causality count seems to be unpredictable.  

Ukraine Military warned that it expects a new set of attacks on Kyiv in the coming days if Russia takes over Donbas. Lugansk Regional Governor cautioned the residents to leave as the Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine block the exit for people. 

Other developments
In the NATO meeting, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged more weapons from the West to fight against the civilian atrocities. He said that if the weapons were provided, Ukraine would fight using its security forces against Russia to ensure Putin does not attempt to attack NATO members. In response to Ukraine's request for.more weapons, NATO Cheif said that the since the invasion, NATO along with member countries have been coordinating to increase their share of military support.

On 07 April, a video was released where Ukrainian forces shot a captured Russian soldier. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba affirmed that the video will be investigated. The area is expected to be a road to the capital Kyiv, where the Russian forces were observed to be receding. 

On 07 April, France24 reported that the road leading to Chuhuiv was empty post the continuous crossfires and bombardment. It also reported on the 200,000 Ukrainians who have moved to Lviv transit centers for accommodation, food, and security. 

The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia 

Russia's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia had incurred "significant losses," in the war. He further detailed the troops withdrawal, stating the military withdrew from areas of Kyiv and Chernihiv to reduce tensions and create a stage for peace talks. So far there has been no report from Russia on the incurred losses since 24 February.

On 07 April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of constant change in the demands since the start of negotiation talks in Istanbul. He said that Ukraine was not keen on resolving the fight. 

Russian Ministry of Defence 
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed of destroying fuel storage facilities in four different cities, Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Chuhuiv. Another claim of the Russian investigators was charging four Ukrainian military officers for involving in the torture and killing of civilians in the Donbas region. According to the statement released by the investigation committee: "As of today, the investigators have data on 59 military units and their affiliation with particular armed services and their stationing. They have identified four new commanders of the Ukrainian armed forces complicit in the bombardments of civilians in 2018, 2020, and 2021."

Other developments
Russia's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that if Finland and Sweden became part of NATO, Russia, through its measures, will "rebalance the situation." It was observed that Russia's security position on the western flank will be strengthened. 

An official from the separatists group commented on the stance of Russia on Mariupol. He said, the fighting is taking place mainly in the area of the industrial zone of the city and remarked that it was uncertain for Russia to capture the city entirely in the near time. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 07 April, US Defence Department Spokesperson John Kirby said Washington was training Ukrainian soldiers to use the Switchblade drones. He talked about how the US had the opportunity to take in Ukrainian soldiers and train them for a couple of days on using the Switchblade. In turn, they would be able to teach others in the country. These remotely controlled drones were flying bombs that are crashed into targets to explode. Kirby added: "They arrived over there earlier this week. So they'll be getting into Ukraine quickly if they aren't already there." 

On the same day, US President Joe Biden mentioned that Congress had approved two measures against Russia for its atrocities in Bucha. One was on the removal of Russia as a most favoured nation for trade, and the other consisted of oil ban imports. Senate Leader Chuck Schumer said: "Putin must absolutely be held accountable for the detestable, despicable war crimes he is committing against Ukraine." He added that these measures intended to put economic pressure on Putin and the Russian oligarchs. 

Also, on 07 April, a report by the Pentagon said that Ukraine would surely win the war against Russia. Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby added: "The proof is literally in the outcomes that you're seeing every day... absolutely they can win." He further mentioned how Putin could not achieve his objectives in Ukraine, and how Russia was now moving back from Kyiv, Chernihiv and his inability to take Mariupol. 

On 08 April, the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said China could face sanctions if it supported Russia in its war. She added that the sanctions against Russia and the oligarchs should set an example for China's President Xi Jinping. She further said: "We hope that the PRC understands that any such action would see a response from the international community, not just from the United States." 

Finland
On 07 April, as a security measure, Finland announced an increase in the funds of EUR 2.2 billion for the next four years. The funds will be utilised to pay hundreds of soldiers, bolster the border security and boost its missile systems and ammunition. According to the Prime Minister, Sanna Marin: "seriously mull over our own stance and approach to military alignment."

Estonia
On 07 April, the Estonian government announced its decision to stop the imports of gas from Russia. It will be the second Baltic state to cut down the gas imports after Lithuania. Estonia's gas import from Russia is only seven per cent, which is less compared to other countries in Europe.

The UK
On 07 April, the UK said it had announced further sanctions against eight Russian oligarchs, Russian Banks such as Sberbank and Credit Bank of Moscow. The UK's Foreign Office said that this was in response to the discovery of civilian bodies after the withdrawal of Russian forces in the north of Kyiv. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: "I'm afraid when you look at what's happening in Bucha, the revelations that we are seeing from what Putin has done in Ukraine doesn't look far short of genocide to me." 

On the same day, UK's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said they and the allies were taking a more concentrated Russian offensive. She added that the government and NATO had agreed to supply heavier equipment to Ukraine. At Brussels, Truss said: "Putin has changed his tactics but not his intent. He wants a hold over the whole of Ukraine." The UK also announced sending EUR 30 million to Poland to help with vital supplies. 

Also, on 07 April, a former Member of Parliament raised concerns about the UK's refugee visa process. She said the application system was too slow and was not easy to access for the refugees escaping war. In addition, she cited issues of uploading documents with lousy internet connection and the difficulties refugees face in a wartime situation. 

On the same day, Stoltenberg at Brussels mentioned how the war in Ukraine could continue for years. He stressed on the need to have direct talks with Putin and for him to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine. He further warned that if the war continued, there could be a possibility of an escalation to a more expanded war which would cause more casualties and drain resources. 

Jersey 
On 07 April, Jersey's International Development Minister Carolyn Labey visited Poland to assess how the island's aid was being used. Jersey has funded the distribution of 4000 trauma kits and 150 kevlar body armour vests and helmets to be used by Doctors. Donations were distributed within Poland or were sent to Kyiv. She said: "It's a humbling experience to meet ordinary Ukrainians who have displayed such extraordinary courage and resilience as well as the wonderful people assisting them.." 

Italy 
On 07 April, Italy announced that it would follow the EU's sanctions against Russia. Prime Minister Mario Draghi said: "If we are offered a gas embargo, we will follow the EU down this path, we want the most effective instrument to achieve peace." However, he also mentioned how Italy was not ready at the moment to deal with a gas embargo. Moreover, he contradicted himself by saying: "Today the gas embargo is not yet... on the table." 

The EU
On 07 April, the EU's Council chief Charles Michel said the bloc was preparing a proposal to release EUR 500 million to provide arms for Ukraine. The proposal was agreed upon at the ambassador level by 27 EU nations. He added that this would bring the EU's contribution to EUR 1.5 billion in military support for Ukraine. Interestingly, he even compared the EU's funding to Russia's earnings in gas payments and said: "This may seem like a lot, but one billion euros is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he provides us." 

NATO
On 07 April, NATO's chief Jens Stoltenberg said the member countries had agreed to increase their support for Ukraine. This comes after Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said more atrocities could break out if Ukraine does not get more military aid. Stoltenberg added: "We are closely coordinating and discussing these issues with Ukraine, so allies are providing and are willing to do more when it comes to military support." However, NATO has been hesitant in supplying heavy offensive equipment like tanks and fighter jets that could lead to a direct conflict with Russia.

The Global Fallouts
International implications of the Ukraine war

Australia
On 07 April, Australia said it would impose further sanctions to target Moscow's financial institutions and impose travel bans on additional 67 Russians. Australia's Foreign Minister Marise Payne said: "Today, I'm announcing 67 further sanctions of Russian elites and oligarchs, those close to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin who facilitate and support his outrageous actions." She added that these were in response to the emergence of war crimes in Bucha. 

G7
On 07 April, the G7 condemned Russia's atrocities in Bucha. The Foreign Ministers said that Russia's atrocities were a severe violation of international law, international humanitarian law and human rights. The Ministers expressed "heartfelt solidarity with the Ukrainian people and our deepest condolences to the victims". They further pushed for Russia's suspension from the UN Human Rights Council.

The UN
On 07 April, the UN General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. The vote was received with 93 nations in favour, 24 against, and the rest abstained within the 193 Member Assembly. The meeting further marked a resumption of a special emergency session held since the war in Ukraine broke out and with the emergence of the recent reports on Bucha. 

WHO
On 07 April, the WHO said it was preparing for possible chemical assaults in Ukraine. WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge said: "Given the uncertainties of the current situation, there are no assurances that the war will not get worse." He added that the WHO considered all possibilities and prepared for situations of mass casualties and treatments to chemical assaults. 

Shell
On 07 April, the oil giant Shell said it would be taking a hit of about USD five billion for withdrawing from Russia. However, the firm assured that it would not further buy oil from Russia but would keep its commitments that were signed before the war in Ukraine. The company also said it would end its partnership in the Nord Stream two pipeline. 

References:
 "Zelensky says scenes in Borodianka' much more horrific' than in Bucha," France24, 07 April 2022
 "Nato: Ukraine asks for 'weapons, weapons, weapons'," BBC, 07 April 2022
 "Video appears to show killing of captive Russian soldier," BBC, 07 April 2022
 "Russia charges four Ukrainian military commanders in absentia with Donbass bombardments," TASS, 07 April 2022
 "Peskov announced the "significant losses" of Russia in the war in Ukraine," Meduza, 07 April 2022
 "Revoke Russian investor passports, Zelensky urges Cyprus," RFI, 07 April 2022
 "Ukrainian President Zelensky to address Cypriot parliament at 18:00," In-cyprus, 07 April 2022
 "Ukrainian soldiers training in US with Switchblade drones," The Guardian, 07 April 2022
"Ukraine could 'absolutely' win the war against Russia, Pentagon says," The Guardian, 07 April 2022 
"The US congress has approved one measure to remove Russia's "most favored nation" trade status and another to ban oil imports from Russia," The Guardian, 07 April 2022
"US says China could face sanctions if it supports Russia's war in Ukraine," The Guardian, 07 April 2022
Joseph Lee & Doug Faulkner, "Ukraine war: Bucha deaths' not far short of genocide' - PM," BBC, 07 April 2022 
"Ukraine war in new and different phase - Liz Truss," BBC, 07 April 2022
"Ex-MP calls for Ukraine refugee visa improvements," BBC, 07 April 2022
"Ukraine conflict: What is Nato and how has it responded to Russia's invasion?," BBC, 07 April 2022 
"Nato: Ukraine asks for 'weapons, weapons, weapons'," BBC, 07 April 2022
"Nato's Stoltenberg: 'the easiest way to end this war is for Putin to pull back'" The Guardian, 07 April 2022
"Jersey minister visits Poland to see island's support," BBC, 07 April 2022
"Italy will "follow the decisions of the European Union" on new sanctions against Russia," The Guardian, 07 April 2022
"The European Union is proposing a 500m euro military aid package to Ukraine," The Guardian, 07 April 2022 
"Oil giant Shell to take £3.8bn hit by leaving Russia," BBC, 07 April 2022
"The UN General Assembly will vote today on whether to suspend Russia from the UN human rights council," The Guardian, 07 April 2022 
Emma Farge and Mrinalika Roy, "WHO says making contingency plans for possible 'chemical assaults' in Ukraine," Reuters, 07 April 2022
"G7 condemns Russian 'atrocities' committed in Bucha' in the strongest terms'," The Guardian, 07 April 2022 
Robin Emmott, "Australia to impose sanctions on 67 more Russians over Ukraine," Reuters, 07 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan, Sai Pranav, and Rishma Banerjee 

FRANCE
Macron warns about Presidential candidate Le Pen’s unlawful manifesto
On 07 April, France’s President Emmanuel Macron intensified his warnings about the threat presented by his far-right rival Marine Le Pen ahead of the first-round presidential elections on 10 April. He admitted that he has not been able to ease the voters' anxieties and keep the far right at bay during his presidency. Le Pen's popularity has increased gradually, driven by her promises to reduce fuel tax to relieve the rising cost of living. Macron further continued to warn that her anti-immigration plan and a ban on the Muslim headscarf in all public spaces are xenophobic, racist, and violate the French constitution. According to polls, he might face Le Pen in a runoff after the first round, and she would dramatically close the gap on him in a final round on 24 April. (Angelique Chrisafis, “Macron steps up warnings over French far right before first-round vote,” The Guardian, 07 April 2022)

THE UK
Disputed Cambo oil fields to be developed by Ithaca Energy
On 07 April, Ithaca Energy agreed to acquire Siccar Point Energy, the disputed Cambo oil field’s major stakeholder, for USD 1.5 billion. The new company has proposed to develop Cambo and Rosebank oil fields off Shetland. CEO of Ithaca, Alan Bruce stated that developing them was a  "huge opportunity to not only help secure the UK's energy future for at least another quarter of a century but also to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs in the process." However, the Scottish government said that the project should not be approved concerning obligations to follow the Paris climate agreement. (“Cambo: Ithaca Energy pledges to develop controversial oil field,” BBC, 08 April 2022)

Criticisms arise over the new Energy Security Plan
On 07 April, the UK released its energy security plan, which aims for energy independence and plans to enhance nuclear, wind and hydrogen power. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the strategy was for "tackling the mistakes of the past and making sure that we are set well for the future". The government aims to build up to eight new nuclear reactors, two at Sizewell. The delivery of the new plants will be overseen by a new body "Great British Nuclear." For onshore wind farms, the strategy pledges to form agreements with a limited number of  “supportive communities” that wish to host wind turbines in exchange for lower energy prices. To expand solar capacity by up to five times by 2035, the government is considering revising laws for placing solar panels on residences and commercial buildings. However, the opposition has criticised the plan for not focusing on energy efficiency, insulation and reducing the cost of living. (“Energy strategy: Boris Johnson defends plan amid cost of living crisis,” BBC, 08 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Mali was accused of killing civilians in an attack against insurgents
On 05 April, Human Rights Watch (HRW) alleged that the Malian forces and Russian mercenaries executed 300 civilians in an anti-jihadist operation. Local witnesses said hundreds of men were executed in small groups during the anti-jihadist operation on 23 March in the central town of Moura. Witnesses also claim that over 100 white soldiers talking in an unfamiliar language believed to be Russians were involved in the operation. The Malian government is fighting the insurgency with the support of private military contractors from Russia's Wagner group. Mali and Russia have previously said that they are not mercenaries but rather trainers assisting local forces with weapons from Russia. West Africa Director at HRW, Carrine Dufka stated: “The Malian government is responsible for this atrocity, the worst in Mali in a decade, whether carried about by Malian forces or associated foreign soldiers.” (Emmanuel Akinwotu, “Russian mercenaries and Mali army accused of killing 300 civilians,” The Guardian, 05 April 2022)

EU hosts peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia 
On 06 April, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s met with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Brussels. Hosted by the European Council, it marks the third time the two countries leaders have met in the last six months. The leaders of the two countries initiated peace talks following the recent clash and the escalation of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh territory since the displacement of 250,000 people in 2020. Pashinyan’s statement mentioned that a bilateral border commission would be set up by the end of this month, and the Foreign Ministers of both countries have been asked to prepare for additional peace talks. However, European Council President Charles Michel said that “it doesn’t mean that everything is solved, of course.” (“Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to peace talks two years after Nagorno-Karabakh fighting,” Deutsche Welle, 07 April 2022)


07 April 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #169

War in Ukraine: Day 42

Raids across Germany for suspected neo-Nazi groups;24-hour labour strike held in Athens due to inflation;Malta ordered to terminate golden passport scheme

Photo : Reuters/Yiannis Kourtoglou


War in Ukraine: Day 42

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
Zelenskyy on sanctions; From the Ukrainian Presidents’ Office; Ukrainian prosecutors on Russian war crimes

Zelenskyy on sanctions against Russia 
On 06 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the West to impose further sanctions on Russia in response to what he saw in Bucha. He said: “After what the world saw in Bucha, sanctions against Russia must be commensurate with the gravity of the occupiers’ war crimes.” He further mentioned that if Russian banks continue to function, it would eventually lead to the EU countries trading with Russian energy sources, which would not affect Moscow. 

Zelenskyy thanks Ireland 
On 06 April, Zelenskyy thanked Ireland’s politicians for extending their support to Ukraine since the initial days of Russia’s invasion. He added: “Thank you for the humanitarian and financial support extended to our country and thank you for your caring about Ukrainian people who found shelter on your land.” He further urged the Irish politicians to push for tougher sanctions on the EU. 

From the Ukrainian Presidents’ Office
On 06 April, the Head of the Ukrainian President’s office, Andriy Yermak, said international experts should work on sanctions that could ensure that they are sufficiently destructive. He talked about Bucha and called for a collective call from their partners in the West to ensure effective sanctions. The Deputy Head of the Office, Rostyslav Shurma, called for Russia to be placed on the blacklist of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). This comes as the officials would meet international experts to get their opinion on sanctions against Russia. 

Kuleba to request G7 and NATO for weapons
On 06 April, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that he would appeal to NATO and the G7 for additional weapons on his visit to Brussels. These weapons would be used to counter Russian forces.

Ukrainian prosecutors on Russian war crimes
On 06 April, Ukrainian prosecutors said they were investigating about 4,468 alleged cases of Russian war crimes. This came after reports of the crimes by Russian forces in Bucha emerged. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktov said: “Prosecutors and investigators are already examining the area [Kyiv region] and documenting crimes, so that every perpetrator of these atrocities are brought to justice both in national and international courts.” Venediktov further mentioned that the team was collecting evidence for a Hague trial. She added: “Evidence is no longer just war crimes, but crimes against humanity.”

From Mariupol
On 06 April, the Mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boichenko, confirmed the killing of 5000 civilians in the city. The number included children that had died since the start of Russia’s siege. In addition, Boichenko talked about the bombing of the hospital by Russian forces that killed 50 people. He added that 90 per cent of the city had been destroyed by indiscriminate shelling by the Russians. 

Evacuations
On 06 April, eleven humanitarian corridors were agreed upon with Russia. However, evacuees from Mariupol would have to use their own vehicles to leave the port city as the Ukrainian government could not reach there. 

On the same day, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, asked the citizens in Ukraine to leave the Donbas region if possible. She added: “It has to be done now because later people will be under fire and face the threat of death.” She further mentioned that the government could not do much because Russia controlled certain parts of the region. This comes as Severodonetsk, a town in eastern Ukraine, received sporadic shelling.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia 
Putin calls Serbian President Vucic
On 06 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin spoke to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on a telephonic call to congratulate him on his victory in the elections. Putin also briefed the situation in Ukraine and expressed hope that the conflict in Ukraine would end soon. A joint statement released stated: “…as Putin said - Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, while President Vucic reiterated Serbia’s position and the conclusions of the National Security Council, which Putin is well aware of.” Vucic had earlier mentioned how Serbia would remain neutral and maintain cordial relations with Russia. 

Putin speaks to Hungary’s Prime Minister 
On 06 April, Putin spoke to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and discussed Russian-Hungarian relations. Putin further informed Orban about the situation in Ukraine and the status of talks between Moscow and Kyiv. He also mentioned “the Kyiv regime’s gross and cynical provocation in the town of Bucha.”

Maria Zakharova comments on expulsion of Russian diplomats
On 06 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova called the declaration of Moscow’s diplomats as personae non-grata, a political attack. She said: “Over the last decades, the collective West has begun to use the declaration of Russian diplomats as personae non-grata, that is, imposing sanctions on them, isolating them from the opportunity to work in the region they had studied, <...> as a tool not of diplomatic work, but of information and political attack.” She further spoke about how collective solidarity was a public demonstration to create a narrative against Russia. 

Zakharova on Bucha accusations 
On 06 April, Spokesperson Zakharova claimed that the images of the dead bodies across the town of Bucha were staged. She further mentioned that the images were used to justify sanctions and to derail the ongoing peace talks with Kyiv. She added: “These terrible, criminal fake (images) were published in order to justify another pre-arranged sanctions package, including a large-scale expulsion of diplomats from different countries.” 

Russia to maintain diplomatic ties with the West
On 06 April, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko mentioned that Russia would want to keep diplomatic channels open even after European countries expelled its diplomats. He said: “Nevertheless our position remains absolutely the same: we advocate for diplomatic channels to remain open.” However, Grushko also warned that expelling diplomats disrupted the ambassadors’ work done over the years and damaged their interests. 

The West view: Responses from the US and Europe
Czech Republic
06 April, the Czech Republic Defence Minister announced the supply of tanks to Ukraine. The same was also shared in a twitter which showed the loading of T-72 tanks and armoured vehicles into train carriages. With the decision being passed, Czech Republic becomes the first EU country to engage in direct supply of weapons to Ukraine. According to Defence Minister Jana Cernochova said: “I will only assure you that the Czech Republic...is helping Ukraine as much as it can and will continue to help by (supplying) military equipment, both light and heavy.”

The US
On 06 April, the US announced new set of sanctions targeting the biggest financial institutions and private lenders. According to Biden, he said the US will first aim at full block on Sberbank and Alfa Bank. Second, locking down of accounts of those holding accounts in the US. He also said that an executive order will be signed banning any form of new investments in Russia. The order will be applicable to 600 companies, the new sanctions also aim to coordinate with the G7 leaders in tightening the sanctions. Third, the sanctions will target, Putin’s daughters and close family members as it observes Putin’s assets to be hidden in their account. It was confirmed by White House Press Secretary, Jen Psaki. On the sanctions he said: “degrade key instruments of Russian state power, impose acute and immediate economic harm on Russia.”

The US military announced the increase in military of USD 100 million to support Ukraine with anti-armour Javelin missiles. This will be the sixth batch of military equipment provided by the US since the start of war. According to the US Pentagon spokesperson, John Kirby: “meet an urgent Ukrainian need for additional Javelin anti-armor systems, which the United States has been providing to Ukraine and they have been using so effectively to defend their country.”

The EU
The European Commission Chief, Ursula von der Leyen said that EU is currently working on additional sanctions on Russia for indulging in war crimes in Ukraine. It plans to ban coal, oil and gas exports.
The UK
On 06 April, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on heavy shelling and continuing airstrikes in Mariupol. In the statement released: “Most of the city’s 160,000 residents have no light, communication, medicine, heat or water. Russian forces have prevented humanitarian access, likely to pressure defenders to surrender.”Along with the US, UK imposed similar sanctions on Russia targeting its banks, ban on new investments, ending of coal, oil, gas, iron and steel imports.

NATO
NATO has decided to hold talks with Foreign Ministers in Brussels to discuss on how to proceed with the next stage of Ukraine war. Nato’s Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg commented that Russia’s aim to capture Donbas was to establish a land corridor. He also confirmed that no troops or plans of NATO has been sent to Ukraine. During his address in Brussels, he said: “We have seen no indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and rewrite the international order, and we need to be prepared for that.”

The Global Fallouts: International implications of the Ukraine war
India
In the UN Security Council meeting, India for the first time voiced against Russia condemning the killings in Bucha. It called for an independent investigation into the report. Till now India has abstained from voting on resolutions called in the UNSC and UNGA. US has also issued a warning to India for maintaining close relation with Russia and its resistance to levy sanction on Russia. India’s diplomatic stance over Ukraine war is due its military and energy dependency.

MNCs
On 06 April, Chanel which is known for its luxury goods announced that it will henceforth not sell its products to Russia after ending its operations. It added that the sanctions imposed by the EU prohibits the company from selling its items to even the individual who use it in Russia.

ICRC
The International Committee of the Red Cross ICRC confirmed that it has escorted 1,000 civilians who were held by the Russian police force from Mariupol, Zaporizhzhia and areas around. The evacuation was done using private cars and buses, ICRC's Pascal Hundt said: “It was a difficult operation, complex operation, but we really feel relieved that more than 1,000 people managed to leave from hell where they wanted to go.” ICRCs repeated efforts to send aid to people in Mariupol was blocked away by the Russian troops till now.

References: 
Volodymyr Zelenskiy says now is the “crucial moment” for western leaders to impose further sanctions on Russia,” The Guardian, 06 April 2022
Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, said that international experts need to work with Ukraine to “ensure that sanctions are sufficiently destructive” to Russia.” The Guardian, 06 April 2022
4,468 Russian war crimes including rape under investigation, prosecutor says,” The Guardian, 06 April 2022 
Over 5,000 civilians, including children, killed in Mariupol," The Guardian, 06 April 2022
Eleven 'humanitarian corridors' agreed for today – Ukraine's deputy PM,” The Guardian, 06 April 2022 
"Donbas: Ukraine tells residents in the east to evacuate,” BBC, 06 April 2022 
"Ukraine war: President Zelensky thanks Irish for support,” BBC, 06 April 2022
Shells and rockets were landing at regular intervals in the eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk today.The Guardian, 06 April 2022 
Kyiv reports 89 deaths since start of invasion,” The Guardian, 06 April 2022
Serbia to maintain friendship with Russia while pursuing EU membership, Vucic tells Putin,” TASS, 06 April 2022 
Press review: International probe into Bucha unlikely and EU purges Russian diplomats,” TASS, 06 April 2022 
West uses expulsion of Russian diplomats as information and political attack — diplomat,” TASS, 06 April 2022 
Moscow says Bucha accusations meant to derail peace talks, justify more sanctions,” Reuters, 06 April 2022 
Putin ally Medvedev vows international legal battle over property seizures,” Reuters, 06 April 2022 
Russia says it wants to keep diplomatic ties with West despite expulsions,” Reuters, 06 April 2022
Telephone conversation with Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban,” Kremlin.ru, 06 April 2022
Guardian Live,” The Guardian, 06 April 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 06 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav 

GERMANY
Raids across the country for suspected neo-Nazi groups
On 06 April, Germany’s federal police raided residences and meeting places of suspected neo-Nazi groups throughout the country. The raids primarily targeted the neo-Nazi groups Atomwaffen Division (AWD), Combat 18 (C18), and Knockout 51 (K51). The State prosecutor’s office stated four suspects were arrested, including the leader of K51.AWD is a neo-Nazi terror group made up of loosely organised terror cells that began in the US. At least five homicides have been traced to members of the US organisation. C18 was initially formed in the UK in the 1990s as the far-right British National Party’s street-fighting wing. They took part in neo-Nazi rallies and far-right music festivals. K51 was targeted for attempting to establish a “Nazi hood” in Eisenach, Thuringia, in eastern Germany. The group was labelled a criminal organisation by Germany’s Attorney General. (Alex Berry, “Germany conducts nationwide raids on neo-Nazi groups,” Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2022)

GREECE
24-hour labour strike held in Athens due to inflation
On 06 April, the labourers went on a strike against the increasing price and decreasing wage in front of the Parliament in Athens. The two largest labour unions consisting of 2.5 million workers, came together to strike against the growing inflation in the country. A courier worker said: “Our life now is just being in debt,” as basic living standards were unaffordable. The increase in energy and housing prices was induced by the sanctions and the war in Ukraine. As a result, Greece’s consumer inflation surged up to 7.2 per cent in February. The General Confederation of Greek Workers demanded an increase of the gross monthly minimum wage up to 13 per cent. However, the government only increased it to two per cent. The government further said it would increase the gross monthly minimum wage by 01 May. (Phoebe Fronista and Karolina Tagaris, “Thousands protest as Greek workers strike over high prices, low wages,” Reuters, 06 April 2022) 

REGIONAL
Malta ordered to terminate the golden passport scheme
On 06 April, the European Commission notified Malta to end its investor citizenship scheme, also known as the “Golden Passport.” The Commission believes that awarding EU citizenship in exchange for pre-determined expenditures or investments, without any genuine connection to the Member State, is unacceptable under EU law. Malta has been given two months to reply to the notification; an unsatisfactory response may direct the matter to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The Commission stated: “Every person that holds the nationality of an EU Member State is at the same time an EU citizen. EU citizenship automatically gives the right to free movement, access to the EU internal market, and the right to vote and be elected in European and local elections.” (“EU threatens legal action over Malta's 'golden passport' scheme,’ Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2022)

The EU’s Top diplomat, Josep Borell urges Europe to send more arms to Ukraine
On 06 April, Vice-president of the EU, Josep Borell, exclaimed about the wide expenditure gap between Russia and Ukraine. Borell said that the EU had paid EUR 35 billion to Russia for energy since the war began and only EUR one billion to fund Ukraine's defence. He stated: “We have to continue arming Ukraine. We need less rounds of applause and more assistance,” urging Europe to send more arms to Ukraine. Borell regretted that the EU had grown reliant on fossil fuel sources from oppressive governments on its borders and emphasized that Europe’s energy independence was contingent upon renewable energy. (“EU has spent €35bn on Russian energy since the war began and just €1bn on aid to Ukraine - Borrell,” Euronews, 06 April 2022)

ECDC recalls chocolate products citing salmonella contamination
On 06 April, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) further investigated the rise of salmonella cases in multiple countries linked to chocolate products. The outbreak is characterised by an exceptionally high number of children being hospitalised, some with severe symptoms. The first case was reported in the UK in January. As a result, product recalls have been issued in Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the UK to avoid the consumption of possibly contaminated Salmonella products. The outbreak comes within days after French health officials connected Nestlé's Buitoni frozen pizza brand to severe E.coli contamination cases. (“EU officials investigate salmonella cases linked to Kinder chocolate eggs,” Euronews, 06 April 2022)

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Dayton Accords to be re-examined
On 06 April, Deutsche Welle examined the need to reform the Dayton Accords of 1995, and the role of the EU in promoting democracy in the region, following the commemoration of the day of Sarajevo. The Dayton Accords, signed by the presidents of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia on 21 November 1995, ended the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina and outlined a General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The report suggested that the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) and Office of High Representative (OHR) be transformed into working institutions with the authority to amend the Dayton Agreement. Furthermore, the country must be offered a clear path to EU membership and economic assistance to improve living conditions. The report concluded by stating that the effective weapons we may use to resist the control of powerful cliques in post-communist countries are democracy, the rule of law, prosperity, and integration into the EU. (Rüdiger Rossig, “If Dayton Accords are not reformed, the agony of Bosnia-Herzegovina will be prolonged,” Deutsche Welle, 06 April 2022)


06 April 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #168

War in Ukraine: Day 41

Safe To Be Me conference cancelled; New report on fracking to be drafted; EU enforces rule of law on Hungary; Mobile roaming scheme extended to a decade

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 41
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in the UNSC and Bucha massacre

Zelensky’s address
On 05 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his address at the emergency meeting of UNSC called for “open and transparent investigation” into the allegations on civilian killings in the city of Bucha. He said: “there is not a single crime they would not commit.” Zelensky pointed out that if the UN council is unable to find a solution to Russia's crimes, he suggested dissolving Russia. After his address, he also screened a video showing the images of the dead civilians and their bodies.

In his everyday address to the people, he reported that Russian forces had killed and tortured more than 300 civilians in Bucha. He accused Russia for covering up its war crimes in the city of Bucha and many other occupied cities. Along with the accusation, Zelensky vowed to track down the war crime violations of Russia. He confirmed on discussing the same with the leaders of Europe, Poland, and, Austria: “All crimes of the occupiers are documented. The necessary procedural basis is provided for bringing the guilty Russian military to justice for every crime they commit.”

Ukraine Military
On 05 April, the General Staff of Ukraine’s military forces claimed that close to 18,500 Russian had been killed in the war by Ukraine. It also recorded the destruction of war equipment and weapons, which includes “676 tanks, 1,858 armoured vehicles, 150 warplanes and 134 helicopters.” Russian sources are to disclose their casualty figures, but it has confirmed the deaths of only 1,351 now.

Other developments
One of the residents, Alex Dayrabekov who escaped from Bucha described the situation in Bucha in an interview with BBC, He said: “My neighbours - and there are at least 10 of them - lost their closest relatives in their attempt to evacuate from Bucha and Irpin around a month ago…thousands of people died here... because they were deliberately killed.

On 05 April, Mykolaiv Mayor, Oleksandr Senkevych said that the southern city Mykolaiv was being bombarded using cluster munitions by Russia. He pointed that the city held “no military value” and the civilians are being targeted to create fear. He warned the women and children to leave the city to lessen the casualties.

Ukraine officials reported on the count of children wounded and killed. They also stated on the destruction caused to the buildings, schools, and Prosecutor-General’s office. It is predicted that close to 167 children were killed and 279 injured so far since the war began. The Mayor of capital city Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko urged the leaders of Europe to cut down all of the existing commercial ties with Russia. He commented furiously stating: “Every euro, every cent you receive from or send to Russia has blood; it is bloody money and the blood of this money is Ukrainian blood. The blood of Ukrainian people.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

On 05 April, a Russian representative to the UN Security Council, Vasily Nebenzya denied accepting the allegations of war crimes against Russian troops in Bucha. He said: “flagrant inconsistencies in events shown by Ukrainian and Western media. The corpses in no way resemble those that could be lying on the street for three or four days.” Apart from the denial, the Ambassador pointed out that close 600,000 people were moved into Russia and denied Ukraine’s deportations. He said: “And we're not talking about any kind of coercion or abduction, as our Western partners like to present this, but rather the voluntary decision by these people as testified by many of these videos that are accessible in social media.”

Russian Ministry of Defence
On 05 April, Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that 267 marines and 503rd naval infantry battalion of Ukraine had surrendered to Russia in the city of Mariupol. Analysts have called it as the major development in Ukrainian forces.

On 05 April, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that its goal henceforth will be to “liberate” the Donbas region over its initial goals to capture key cities of Ukraine. The Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov claimed on shooting down of two helicopters of Ukraine which were involved in the rescue of leaders from a nationalist battalion. Adding to it he said: “This morning, April 5, around Mariupol, a new attempt by the Kyiv regime to evacuate leaders of the nationalist Azov battalion was aborted. Two Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters, trying to reach the city from the sea, were shot down by portable anti-aircraft systems.”

Other developments
On the Bucha Massacre, Russia’s UN Ambassador denied the allegations against Russia and called out on Ukraine as “staging provocation,” along with the West. So far Russia has neither accepted the allegations nor has given any evidence to support them. As per report of BBC Reality Check and satellite images from New York Times confirmed the killing of civilians, was three weeks ago when Russia was in control of Bucha.

On the expulsions of Russian diplomats, Russia called the move “short-sighted.” At the same Russia spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “Narrowing down opportunities for diplomatic communication in such an unprecedentedly difficult crisis environment is a short-sighted move that will further complicate our communication, which is necessary to find a solution.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
 

The US
On 05 April, the US Internal Revenue Service(IRS) said it had suspended information exchanges with Russia’s tax authorities. This would hinder Moscow’s ability to collect taxes and use them to fund its war in Ukraine. The 30-year-old tax treaty was between the IRS and Russia’s Federal Tax Service, where they shared information to aid domestic tax collections and enforcement of tax laws. The US said it had stopped sharing Anu tax information on 24 February but formally announced it. 

On the same day, the US blocked Russia from paying its sovereign debt using its reserves held in US banks. Russia wanted to pay its USD 600 million using its foreign reserves. However, under the sanctions and the US measures against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, they had frozen these accounts. A US Spokesperson said: “Russia must choose between draining remaining valuable dollar reserves or new revenue coming in, or default.” 

Calls for Russia’s suspension from the UN rights council 
On 04 April, the US and the UK urged the UN to suspend Russia from the Rights Council. The US and the UK called on the UN after the reports surfaced about the atrocities of Russian forces in Bucha. US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: “Russia’s participation in the Human Rights Council is a farce.” She added that it was time for the UN General Assembly to vote the Russians out. Thomas-Greenfield further mentioned: “My message to those 140 countries who have courageously stood together is: the images out of Bucha and devastation across Ukraine require us to now match our words with action.” 

The EU
On 05 April, the EU’s Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said they were planning a new set of sanctions. She listed down six measures: “An import ban on coal from Russia. A full transaction ban on four key Russian banks - among them the country’s second-largest, VTB. A ban on Russian ships and Russian-operated ships from accessing EU ports. Further bans on exports, targeting areas in which Russia is vulnerable, such as transportation equipment. New import bans on products including seafood, liquor, and wood. Additional targeted measures which include halting financial support for Russian public bodies.”

Earlier, the EU said it would only be focusing on the current measures. However, the reports on Bucha have revived the EU’s use for new sanctions against Russian forces’ atrocities near Kyiv. France’s European Affairs Minister Clément Beaune said: “The new sanctions will probably be adopted tomorrow.”  

On the same day, the EU declared 19 Russian diplomats non-gratae for not “engaging in activities contrary to their diplomatic status.” The decision was based on the EU’s High Representative Josep Borrell and was a follow-up to other EU member countries expelling Russian diplomats. The countries accused Russia of using its diplomats to spy. However, the EU said it was in response to the reports of Bucha.  

The UK
On 05 April, the UK said it would announce the frozen USD 350 billion of Russia’s “war chest.” UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “So far, our sanctions have had a crippling impact on those who feed and fund Putin’s war machine. This week we will announce that we’ve frozen over $350 billion of Putin’s war chest.” She further said the UK was planning to implement more sanctions on Russia that would push it back to the Soviet era. 
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On the same day, the UK urged G7 and NATO to ban Russian ships from their ports and plan to phase Moscow’s oil and gas imports. Truss said: “On Thursday, I will be urging our NATO and G7 partners to go further in sanctions by joining us in banning Russian ships from our ports, cracking down on more Russian banks, going after industries that are filling Putin’s war chest like gold, and agreeing on a clear timetable to eliminate imports of Russian oil, coal and gas.”

Sweden
On 05 April, Sweden said it was opening a preliminary investigation into possible war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. It further urged victims and witnesses to submit pieces of evidence that could be used against Russia. The Swedish Prosecution Authority said: “Based on the information available on the situation in Ukraine, there is reason to believe that serious war crimes have been committed.” 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war 

UNSC
On 05 April, at the UNSC meeting, UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, in his speech in the security council said that he “will never forget, this is not a time for protectionism.” The images of the dead people in Bucha. He called for the attention of the council to tend to the consequences of the war on the world economy.

Israel
On 05 April, Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid condemned Russia for its atrocities in Bucha. He said: “The images and testimony from Ukraine are horrific. Russian forces committed war crimes against a defenceless civilian population. I strongly condemn these war crimes.” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also condemned the reports of Bucha and assured that Israel would do everything to assist Ukraine.  

China
On 05 April, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and discussed the possibility of promoting peace talks. China’s and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministers spoke for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. Wang said: “China is willing to take an objective and fair position to continue playing a constructive role in its own way.” Kuleba responded by saying that Ukraine was grateful for Wang’s solidarity with civilian victims.  

Africa
On 05 April, US government officials warned about an acute shortage of food supplies amid the war in Ukraine. The US representative to UN agencies in Rome, Cindy McCain, said that since the war hindered the supplies from Ukraine, Europe’s breadbasket and caused a shortage of food supplies in Africa. She added: “The Food and Agricultural Organization estimates that as many as 13 million more people worldwide will be pushed into food insecurity as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” Ukraine is a major export of wheat to Africa and sends about 40 per cent of wheat and corn to the continent.  

Twitter 
On 05 April, Twitter introduced new measures against Russian accounts to reduce Moscow’s propaganda. Twitter said: “When a government blocks or limits access to online services within their state, undercutting the public’s voice and ability to access information freely, but continues to use online services for their own communications, a severe information imbalance is created.” Russia had restricted Twitter in the country, and thus the platform retaliated with the new measures. 

World Bank
On 05 April, the World Bank said it had downgraded its economic outlook for East and Southeast Asia. The Bank’s announcement came as the ongoing war in Ukraine was pushing inflation and China’s slow growth in the region. It further mentioned that the region would see a five per cent growth instead of a 5.4 per cent growth. World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific Manuela Ferro said: “Just as the economies of East Asia and the Pacific were recovering from the pandemic-induced shock, the war in Ukraine is weighing on the growth momentum.” 

Video game Fortnite
On 05 April, video game maker Epic Games announced that it would donate USD 144 million from its game Fortnite to help the people in Ukraine. Xbox head Phil Spencer responded: “Really incredible to see how the gaming community can have an impact beyond the playing of game.” The money would be given to UNICEF, WFP, and UNRA for their humanitarian assistance to the country and the refugees. 

References: 
BBC Live,” BBC, 05 April 2022
Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 05 April 2022
U.S., Britain Call For Russia’s Suspension From UN Rights Council,” Radio Free Europe, 04 April 2022
Jessica Parker, “EU targets Russian coal and ships in new sanctions,” BBC, 05 April 2022 
Britain says $350 billion of Vladimir Putin’s war chest’ frozen,” The Hindustan Times, 05 April 2022
David Lawder, “EXCLUSIVE US suspends tax information exchange with Russian authorities,” Reuters, 05 April 2022 
UK urges G7 to ban Russian ships and set timetable for oil and gas exit,” Reuters, 05 April 2022
Megan Davies and Alexandra Alper, “US stops Russian bond payments,raising risk of default,” Reuters, 05 April 2022 
Swedish prosecutors open preliminary investigation into war crimes in Ukraine,” Reuters, 05 April 2022
EU orders 19 Russian diplomats to leave Belgium,” Reuters, 05 April 2022
Twitter Moves to Limit Reach of Russian Government Accounts,” The Moscow Times, 05 April 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav 

THE UK
Safe To Be Me conference cancelled 
On 05 April, the government cancelled its LGTQ+ conference following a mass boycott of involved organizations. The conference “Safe To Be Me” was scheduled for 29 June to promote LGBTQ+ rights internationally. The groups have stated that they would not attend the global conference unless the government includes transgenders in the ban on “Conversion Therapy.” The government promised to outlaw conversion therapy for everyone, but any ban would only apply to attempts to change a person's sexuality, not gender identity. Member of Parliament Dehenna Davison expressed disappointment over the cancellation and said: "We had such a huge opportunity to prove the UK (and the Conservative Party) is a defender of freedom. As a Conservative member of the LGBT+ community, it is so wrong it has come to this." (Josh Parry and Lauren Moss, “'Safe To Be Me' LGBT conference cancelled after boycott,” BBC, 05 April 2022)

New report on fracking to be drafted
On 05 April, the government ordered a new scientific report on the impact of fracking. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng granted the British Geological Survey (BGS) three months to review any modifications to the facts around the contentious practise. Despite concerns about the security of access and increased energy prices, they asserted that fracking will provide the country with a "competitive and stable source of energy." The move comes ahead of the government's energy supply strategy, which will be released this week. Only one fracking site has ever been operational in the UK, which was shut down in 2019 following a report by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA). The OGA imposed the indefinite prohibition after discovering that estimating the technique's likelihood or size of earthquakes was impossible. (“Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng orders scientific review of fracking impact,” BBC, 05 April 2022)

REGIONAL
EU enforces rule of law on Hungary
On 05 April, the European Commission initiated the rule of law for the first time against Hungary, which might cut funds to the country. The experimental procedure, which all 27 EU leaders adopted in December 2020, could eventually deprive Budapest of more than EUR 40 billion in EU funds. In February, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) rejected Hungary and Poland’s appeal against the rule of law mechanisms. The Court stated: “Compliance with those values cannot be reduced to an obligation which a candidate state must meet in order to accede to the European Union and which it may disregard after accession.” (Jon Henly, “European Commission launches rule-of-law disciplinary procedure against Hungary,” The Guardian, 05 April 2022)

Spain and Netherlands suggest outlines for the EU fiscal plans 
On 04 April, Dutch Finance Minister Sigrid and Spain's Economy Minister Nadia Calviño proposed their joint statement to influence the negotiations on drafting the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) fiscal plans. Spain and the Netherlands are usually at odds over fiscal policies, suggested country-specific fiscal plans, and introduced a simple expenditure rule. They insisted the new budgetary framework to be simple, transparent, credible and practical, and that all member states be treated equitably. They further said that the SGP should equip the EU to prepare for the next economic crisis by encouraging more investment in green and digital transitions. (Jorge Liberiro and Vasilis Glynos, “Watch: Spain and the Netherlands strike surprising alliance on EU fiscal reform,” Euronews, 05 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
AUKUS members sign pact to counter Russia-China hypersonic weapons
On 05 April, US President Joe Biden, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison released a statement for further expansion on the approved Trilateral Military Agreement named AUKUS. The agreement looks for ways to develop counter-hypersonic weapons against Russia and China. These hypersonic weapons are high-speed nuclear weapons of mass destruction. AUKUS was revived due to Russia’s usage of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in Ukraine last month. At the same time, China has been testing its own hypersonic glide vehicle, a different type of supersonic weapon carrier. UK’s National Security Adviser Stephen Lovegrove said: “In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s more important now than ever that allies work together to defend democracy, international law and freedom around the world.” The General Secretary of Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament Kate Hudson condemned the development of the weapons, saying it would drain the wealth of the US and the UK. (Dan Sabbagh and Daniel Hurst, “Aukus pact extended to development of hypersonic weapons,” The Guardian, 05 April 2022)


05 April 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #167

War in Ukraine: Day 40

Channel Four broadcaster to be privatized; President Viktor Orban’s re-election might halt EU funding

Photo : Reuters/Murad Sezer


War in Ukraine: Day 40
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on ground:
Zelenskyy’s address, Dmytro Kuleba on Bucha, Destruction of Mariupol
 
Zelenskyy’s address
On 04 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned that there was no other choice than to negotiate with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. He added that it had to be done even though it was challenging to do it after uncovering the Russian force's atrocities against civilians. Concerning Bucha, Zelenskyy said it was “unforgiveable…all of us, including myself, will perceive even the possibility of negotiations as a challenge.” 

Zelenskyy talked about the countries ready to provide the security guarantee to Ukraine and said: “Different countries are ready to guarantee different things.” However, he stated that they had not received a list of countries that would affirmatively join them and urged the US and its allies to prepare sanctions in advance to counter the Russian federation if needed. 

Zelenskyy’s video address at Grammy’s 
On 03 April, Zelenskyy made a surprise appearance virtually at the Grammy Awards celebration. He said: “Fill the silence with your music. Fill it today, to tell our story. Support us in any way you can. Any, but not silence.” He spoke about Ukraine’s musicians wearing armor instead of tuxedos and called on the industry to support Ukraine in any way they could. 

​​Ukraine urges German embargo of Russian oil
On 04 April, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, called on the government to reconsider its stance on sanctioning Russian fossil fuels. He said: “I recommend you read these reports about raped and murdered children in Bucha and Irpin before you start explaining to us again why an immediate embargo on Russian gas, oil and coal isn’t feasible.” His call comes after Ukraine accused Russia of crimes against civilians in Bucha. 

Dmytro Kuleba on Bucha
On 04 April, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said what happened in Bucha was just the tip of the iceberg. He added: “The horrors that we’ve seen in Bucha are just the tip of the iceberg of all the crimes (that) have been committed by the Russian Army.” He further demanded more sanctions against Russia and asked them to visit Bucha if they had any reservations about implementing the sanctions.  

From the Mayor of Kyiv
On 04 April, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitscho urged the citizens of Kyiv not to return for "at least another week." He said a curfew is still imposed in several districts as fighting continues near Kyiv. Klitschko also said that many explosive devices were found near the capital.  

Shelling in South Ukraine
On 04 April, shelling by Russian forces wounded 34 and killed eight people in two towns of Southern Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prosecutor-General said: “As a result of enemy shelling, seven residents of Ochakiv were killed and another 20 were injured. In the city of Mykolaiv, one person died and 14 people were wounded, among them a child.” 

Destruction of Mariupol
On 04 April, the port city of Mariupol’s mayor Vadym Boichenko said that it had been 90 per cent destroyed after being besieged by Russian forces. Boichenko said: “The sad news is that 90 percent of the infrastructure in the city is destroyed and 40 percent is unrecoverable.” 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin on ending simplified visas
On 04 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has scrapped simplified visa rules for the officials and journalists whom Moscow deemed “unfriendly.” As a result, countries such as Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Iceland, and Liechtenstein will no longer be able to apply for visas through the simplified procedure. 

Lavrov on accusations for Bucha
On 04 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talked about the situation in Bucha and mentioned that Western leaders should examine their own consciousness before accusing Putin. He stated that Moscow would hold a news conference to clarify that its soldiers did not kill civilians in Northern Ukraine. He said the images were staged by Ukraine and were being used to tarnish Russia’s image. 

Moscow to respond to expulsion of diplomats from France and Germany
On 04 April, Moscow said it would respond to France’s decision to expel Russia’s diplomats from the county. On the same day, Germany announced the expulsion of 40 Russian diplomats. Moscow assured that it would respond to their actions. 

Russian ambassador in Vilnius asked to leave
On 04 April, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the Russian ambassador to Vilnius would have to leave. He said: “The Lithuanian government, in response to the ongoing aggressive actions of Russia in Ukraine, has decided to downgrade the status of the diplomatic mission.” 

Russia insists on UNSC meeting for Bucha
On 04 April, Russia said it would insist on holding a UN Security Council meeting over accusations against Bucha. This comes as the UK attempted to refuse to organize the meeting. Russia’s representative to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, said: “It is hard to imagine and realize, but the British presidency of the Security Council, which has just begun, is trying to deny us our right to request a separate Security Council meeting on the terrible Ukrainian provocation in Bucha.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

Hungary
On 04 April, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban won for the fourth consecutive, and during his speech he accused President Zelensky and Brussels diplomats as “opponents.” Although Hungary refuses to supply weapons to Ukraine, it has allowed half a million refugees into the country.

France
French President Emmanuel Macron upon the massive killings in Bucha called for more sanctions on Russia and said that Russia is responsible for committing war crimes in Ukraine. He urged to impose sanctions on the oil and coal industries of Russia and assured coordination with Germany, and the EU to further the sanctions on Russians. In his address, he failed to mention Russian gas which is imported by the EU for 40 per cent.

Poland
Recent reports state that close to 2.5 million people had moved into Poland from Ukraine since the start of the war. The average number of people crossing the down has increased from 16,800 to 22,300 per day.

On 04 April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, on the bodies found from the attacks in Bucha and Irpin, said that such action must be named genocide. He called Russia “pure evil” and asked the EU countries to seize the assets of the Oligarchs. Apart from this, he criticised Germany for standing in the way of levying stricter sanctions on Russia due to its energy dependency.

Georgia
Georgia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the killings in Bucha. It tweeted: “We are devastated by the scenes of brutal atrocities. All those involved in these war crimes must bear responsibility!” Internally, the government faces criticism from the opposition for its support to Ukraine, Although the government has been supporting, it is yet align with Europe on imposing sanctions.

The US
On 04 April, US President Joe Biden called out President Putin as a war criminal. He accused Putin of the killings in Bucha and asked for a trial. He said: “This guy is brutal, he is a war criminal... but we have to gather all the detail so this can have a war crimes trial.” One of the US tech firms, Maxar Technologies using satellite imagery tracked the site in Bucha. It reported that the images showed evidence of excavation and mass grave.

The EU
On the civilian killings in Bucha, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU was ready to investigate the war crimes in Ukraine. In her tweet: “the atrocious murder of civilians in Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine.” The investigation team will act as a connection between Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Europol and Eurojust.

The UK
On 04 April, on the disinformation campaigns of Russia, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the truth on killings in Ukraine cant stay hidden. Similar to Ursula, he also tweeted: “Russia’s despicable attacks against innocent civilians in Irpin and Bucha are yet more evidence that Putin and his army are committing war crimes in Ukraine.” Although Russia continue to take claim for the killings, the Bucha massacre has raised condemnations across Europe and the US. Adding to Johnson, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, called for tightening of sanctions on Russia for its actions in Ukraine. She stressed on taking of a tougher approach towards Russia and to strengthen Ukraine for negotiations. Liz truss is scheduled to go Poland, Brussels and meeting with G7, NATO leaders to discuss on the war.

The UK Ministry of Defence reported on increased shelling in the city of Mariupol, it pointed that Russia’s objective to capture Mariupol was to establish land corridor from Russia to Crimea. It also added that Ukrainian troops had a strong resistance and still hold key part of the city in control. Later the UK intelligence said that Russian troops and mercenaries were recouping and consolidating its offensives, military company in Donbas. 

Germany
Germany’s Economic Minister Robert Habeck said that although the whole of the EU is working on alternating Russia’s oil and gas, Germany will not sanction an immediate embargo on Russia. The reduced imports from Russia stand at 25 per cent of oil and 40 per cent of gas to Germany. The minister also reaffirmed further reduction. 

On 04 April, Germany expelled 40 Russian representatives from the country due to the Bucha massacre. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that Germany will continue to aid Ukraine with arms.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Climate
On the release of the IPCC report on climate disaster, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres criticised the governments and business leaders for lying and warned that the climate crisis will be catastrophic. The implications of Ukraine's war on energy prices have forced the countries to fall back to fossil fuels and IPCC reported that increased usage on fossil fuels will make the target of achieving 1.5C impossible.

ICRC
ICRC which has been attempting to reach Mariupol for evacuation and aid has been constantly facing challenge in reaching the place due to Russian bombardment. It has been facing the same issue in Zaporizhzhia, where people seem to be trapped without basic supplies.

Democratic Republic of Congo
The central bank of the Democratic Republic of Congo issued a statement on keeping the primary interest rate at 7.5 per cent even in the situation of rising food, and fuel prices due to pandemics and Ukraine war. It has been on a row of reducing its main interest rate from 18.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent in 2021. According to the bank, it expects the economy to face more economic repercussions in the future.

Canada
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly announced sanctions on nine Russians and nine Belarusians for helping Russia in the invasion. She said: “By enabling (Russian President) Vladimir Putin's senseless invasion of Ukraine, these close collaborators of the regime are complicit in the horrific events unfolding before our eyes.” 

References: 
Ukraine foreign minister says Bucha killings are just the "tip of the iceberg”,” Reuters, 04 April 2022 
8 dead in Russian shelling in south Ukraine,” The Straits Times, 04 April 2022 
Mariupol mayor says city ’90 percent’ destroyed following siege of over a month,” The Times of Israel, 04 April 2022
Putin's Western accusers should examine own consciences -Lavrov,” Reuters, 04 April 2022
Moscow to respond to expulsion of its diplomats from France -Interfax,” Reuters, 04 April 2022
Moscow to respond to expulsion of its diplomats from Germany - Interfax,” Reuters, 04 April 2022
Russia to insist on UN Security Council meeting on Bucha situation on April 4 — envoy,” TASS, 04 April 2022 
Russian ambassador has to leave Vilnius as Lithuanian ambassador is recalled from Moscow,” TASS, 04 April 2022 
Moldovan president refutes reports about redeployment of Russian troops in Transnistria,” TASS, 04 April 2022
Putin Ends Simplified Visas for ‘Unfriendly’ Countries’ Officials, Journalists,” The Moscow Times, 04 April 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 04 April 2022
IPCC report: ‘now or never’ if world is to stave off climate disaster.” The Guardian, 04 April 2022
Democratic Republic of Congo central bank keeps interest rate at 7.5%,” Reuters, 04 April 2022
Canada to impose sanctions on nine Russian, nine Belarusian individuals,” Reuters, 04 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav 

FRANCE
Russian yacht seized under the EU sanctions faces complexities
On 04 April, La Ciotat Shipyards of the French Riviera said it does not know whom to bill the  docking fees for Superyacht Amore Vero, following its seizure by France. On 02 March, two days after the EU added the Russian oligarch and CEO of Rosneft Igor Sechin to its sanctions list, customs authorities detained the yacht as her crew prepared to sail out of dock. French authorities could not notify other parties about the Amore Vero's status because verifying the ownership of megayachts may be difficult. The questions surrounding the Amore Vero reveal the complexities the authorities face when targeting Russian assets. Maritime Lawyer Pascal Flot said that the super-rich frequently control their assets through a complex network of shell corporations in offshore tax havens. (Layli Foroudi, “In France, a seized superyacht creates headaches, not just for its owner,” Reuters, 04 April 2022)

GERMANY
30-year-old case of racist arson attack on a refugee home 
On 04 April, a man was apprehended by German Federal Prosecutors for the arson of an asylum house 30 years ago. The prosecutors had discovered new leads after three decades, suggesting that the man had done the act with an extremist intention. This violent act of racism had caused the death of a 27-year-old man named Samuel Yeboah from Ghana and injured two others, while 18 other people escaped unharmed. The day prior to the arson, on 18 September 1991, the suspect was seen discussing with his extreme right-wing acquaintances about the series of racist attacks on the Eastern German town of Hoyerswerda and how a similar act of violence could be done in their town of Saarlouis. (“Germany: Far-right extremist arrested over fatal 1991 attack on refugee home,” Deutsche Welle, 04 April 2022)

THE UK
Channel Four broadcaster to be privatised
On 04 April, the UK government decided to privatise Channel four, a publicly-owned but commercially financed broadcaster. The broadcaster has opposed such a move, claiming that there is no proof that the privatisation would be able to better fulfil its mission of providing challenging and distinctive programmes to those underserved by competitors. And expressed disappointment that the government had not acknowledged the public interest concerns that had been emphasized. The Channel further stated they would “continue to commission much-loved programmes from the independent sector across the UK that represent and celebrate every aspect of British life as well as increase its contribution to society, while maintaining ownership by the public.” (“British government set to sell broadcaster Channel 4,” Reuters, 05 April 2022)

Treasury department set to regulate and recognise Stablecoins as accepted form of payment  
On 04 April, the UK treasury announced to regulate a few cryptocurrencies like Stablecoins and asked the Royal Mint to create Non-Fungible Tokens. To gain users' trust in adopting digital currencies, Stablecoins will be recognized as accepted means of payment. Stablecoins value is derived from traditional currencies or assets like gold, therefore are stable and less volatile. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak Stated: "We want to see the businesses of tomorrow - and the jobs they create - here in the UK, and by regulating effectively we can give them the confidence they need to think and invest long-term." Sunak said he desired to make the UK a global hotspot for crypto asset technology by firm control of the emerging sector. (Michael Race and Daniel Thomas, “Cryptocurrency: UK Treasury to regulate some stablecoins,” BBC, 05 April 2022)

REGIONAL
President Viktor Orbán’s re-election might halt EU funding
On 04 April, Incumbent President Viktor Orbán, a Russian ally, secured his re-election to a fourth consecutive term. Russian President Vladimir Putin Congratulated Orbán despite Hungary's support for EU sanctions against the Kremlin. In his victory speech, Orban mentioned the "opponents" he had defeated, among them were the international media, the Brussels bureaucrats and the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who has criticised him for not letting the supply of weapons pass through Hungary. Member of European Parliament, Daniel Frenud and Petri Sarvamma expected the commission to trigger Rule of Law mechanisms and stated that “We appeased Viktor Orbán … and we, the union, appeased Vladimir Putin. And if we continue on this path.. We will find ourselves obsolete.” (Jennifer Rankin, “Victory of Putin ally Orbán in Hungary may trigger freeze on EU funding,” The Guardian, 04 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Plankton's illuminated shores of Napier, New Zealand
On 04 April, New Zealand’s north island’s shorelines were illuminated by bioluminescent planktons with blue-green colors after nightfall. Algal ecologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Karl Safi said: “Dinoflagellates produce this light when disturbed, and will give a light flash lasting a fraction of a second – disturbing the predator trying to consume them.” A photographer from Napier who captured the moment calls it “The aurora of the sea.”  Around the shores “biohunting” communities have emerged to alert one another when they witness the phenomenon. (Tess McClure, “Aurora of the sea’: luminous plankton light up New Zealand shoresThe Guardian, 05 April 2022)


04 April 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #166

War in Ukraine: Day 38 & 39

Parliamentary elections and referendum held in Hungary; SNS projected for re-election in Serbia; Nuclear bunkers to be prepared in Switzerland

Photo : Reuters/Zohra Bensemra


War in Ukraine: Day 38 & 39
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address and Bucha massacre

Zelensky’s address
On 03 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his video address called out the Russian invasion as torture to the entire country and questioned whether Russia’s act counted as genocide. He said: “Indeed, this is genocide. The elimination of the whole nation and the people. We are the citizens of Ukraine. We have more than 100 nationalities. This is about the destruction and extermination of all these nationalities. We are the citizens of Ukraine and we don't want to be subdued to the policy of Russian Federation.” The key highlight of the address was how Ukrainians are being put down by Russian policy and are being exterminated. While the city of Bucha is devasted and Odesa hit with rockets, Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian military was upping its defence in the East and South of Ukraine. He also observed that Russia had now shifted its focus from targeting Kyiv to encircling East to capture Ukraine’s military in Donbas.

Ukraine Military
On 03 April, Ukraine’s military prosecutors the investigation found close to 410 bodies in the towns surrounding Kyiv. According to prosecutors: “collect and preserve evidence of Russian aggression, maintain law and order, ensure respect for the rights of servicepersons.” Till now Russia has refused to claim on the killing of civilians in those towns.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense claimed the death of two Russian soldiers who were in the hospital of the Kharkiv region. It also reported on the hospitalisation of 500 Russian troops due to severe alcohol poisoning.

Other developments
Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported the death of the village head who was previously kidnapped Russians. Vereshchuk also claimed that more than 10 local community leader from Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Donetsk had been taken away by Russian troops. She urged on rescue of those and added: “We are informing the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the UN, all possible organisations, just like for the other civilians who have disappeared.”

On 03 April, aide to Ukraine's interior minister confirmed on new air strikes with many rocket attacks by Russia over two port cities, Odesa and Mykolaiv. The attack in the southern ports is viewed as a trial to block Ukraine from accessing Black Sea and to create a corridor between Russia and Peninsula.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the world leaders, G7 and the EU to take action against the Bucha massacre. He said: “Russians aim to eliminate as many Ukrainians as they can.”

On 03 April, Reuters, reported the complete destruction of oil refinery of Ukraine located in the Kremenchuk city, centre of Ukraine. According to the reporter: “The fire at the refinery has been extinguished but the facility has been completely destroyed and can no longer function.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russian Ministry of Defence
Upon the repeated accusations of killings in the town of Bucha located near Kyiv, the Russian Ministry of Defence has rejected all the condemnations from the West. It countered by saying “the latest provocation and the latest fake by the Kyiv regime,” of Ukraine to accuse Russia. The same was also posted on Russia’s Telegram channel stating the killings in Bucha as fake. In the post: “The Ukrainian Armed Forces subjected the city to artillery strikes, which also could have led to civilian deaths.”

 

On 03 April, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had destroyed the oil facilities in the city of Odesa along with fuel storages. The attack was done using “high-precision sea and air missiles.” On the same Ukraine has not confirmed on any causalities till now, but said that the critical infrastructure was damaged.

Other developments
Russia’s negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky pointed out that it was too soon for a high-level meeting to resolve the conflict. In his Telegram he posted: “The Ukrainian side has become more realistic in its approach to issues related to the neutral and non-nuclear status of Ukraine but the draft agreement is not ready for submission to a summit meeting.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 
 

The US
On 02 April, the US government said it would transfer Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine to boost its defense systems. On the same day, the US department of defence assured Ukraine that it would provide USD 300 million in security assistance. In addition to that, the US stated that it would also supply drones, commercial satellite imagery services and laser-guided rocket systems. 

On 03 April, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield mentioned that the US would donate USD 50 million in aid to help Moldova. The money was in addition to the USD 30 million that was already promised for the Ukrainian refugees coming to the country

The Vatican
On 02 April, Pope Francis, on his two-day visit to Malta, mentioned that he was considering a trip to Kyiv. He further criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin and called him a "potentate," which meant an autocratic ruler. Pope Francis said: "From the east of Europe, from the land of the sunrise, the dark shadows of war have now spread. We had thought that invasions of other countries, savage street fighting and atomic threats were grim memories of a distant past." 

The UK
On 03 April, the UK's defence intelligence report stated how Mariupol was putting up a 'staunch resistance' to Russia's indiscriminate shelling. The report further mentioned how Mariupol is a critical port city for the Russians and that they wanted to secure a land corridor from Russia to Crimea.

On the same day, the UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson condemned the discovery of bodies from towns near Kyiv after Russian forces withdrew. He said: "Russia's despicable attacks against innocent civilians in Irpin and Bucha are yet more evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his army are committing war crimes in Ukraine." He also announced that the UK would step up its sanctions against Russia. 

Germany
On 03 April, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany and the Western allies have agreed to implement further sanctions against Russia for its atrocities on the towns near Kyiv. He said: "Putin and his supporters will feel the consequences." He also mentioned that Germany would continue to help Ukraine with military equipment to fight against the Russians.

However, Berlin rejected Ukraine's plea for infantry vehicles. Germany's Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht rejected the demand, and cited NATO obligations. He said NATO obligations bound the armoured personnel carriers, this comes as Kyiv requested the transfer of 100 Marder infantry vehicles. Lambrecht also called on the EU to discuss a possible import ban on Russian gas deliveries. His comments came as a response to uncovering Russian atrocities near Kyiv.  

On 02 April, Scholz, in the city of Essen, called on the Russians to end the war in Ukraine quickly. He said: "territorial claims that stem from the imperialist visions of earlier centuries." He added that those territorial claims were destroying the future of Russia. He further mentioned how the implications of the war were affecting the global economy which was already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

France
On 03 April, France's President Emmanuel Macron condemned Russia's atrocities in Bucha. Around 410 civilian bodies were recovered at Bucha, out of which 280 bodies were found buried in mass graves. Macron calling out Russia, said: "On the streets, hundreds of civilians cowardly murdered…must answer for these crimes." French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian mentioned: "I have received information indicating massive abuses by Russian forces in Ukrainian towns that they have been occupying these last few weeks, in particular in the area of Bucha." Le Drian further said that France would work with Ukraine to approach the International Criminal Court (ICC) to initiate a trial against the perpetrators. 

NATO
On 03 April, NATO's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg mentioned the reports of Bucha and called it "horrific." Stoltenberg added, "…and it's absolutely unacceptable that civilians are targeted and killed, and it just underlines the importance of, that this war must end. And that is President Putin's responsibility, to stop the war." He, too, called on the ICC to open an investigation against Russia as all the facts were available. 

Greece
On 03 April, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias visited Odesa as a part of a humanitarian mission. He arrived at the port city and met with Odessa's Mayor, Hennadiy Trukhanov. He had brought critical supplies for the city as Russia had closed roads and besieged the city. Dendias also addressed the strong ethnic Greek community in Odessa and discussed their challenges and problems. He said: "The reopening of [Greece's] consulate will help distribute humanitarian aid and set up corridors for the Greek ethnic community to leave from any areas of Ukraine, if needed, via Odessa." 

Lithuania 
On 03 April, Lithuania's film director Mantas Kvedaravicius was killed in Mariupol. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said: "We lost a creator well known in Lithuania and in the whole world who, until the very last moment, in spite of danger, worked in Russia-occupied Ukraine." Kvedaravicius was known for covering the conflict in Ukraine and Georgia. He was also known for his documentary on "Mariupolis," which was featured at the 2016 Berlin International Film Festival.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Red Cross
On 02 April, the Red Cross prepared to reach Mariupol city as the Russian forces announced to retreat from northern Ukraine. At Mariupol, an estimated 160,000 people remain with food, water, and medicines shortages. However, they said: “arrangements and conditions made it impossible to proceed.” The team was forced to turn back because of the deteriorating situation. 

Human Rights Watch 
On 03 April, Human Rights Watch said it had documented several cases of crimes against humanity by the Russian military focused in the areas of Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch Hugh Williamson said: “The cases we documented amount to unspeakable, deliberate cruelty and violence against Ukrainian civilians.” They also collected first-hand pieces of evidence by interviewing ten people. 

China
On 02 April, China clarified that it was not deliberately circumventing sanctions after the EU warned it about the same. On the contrary, the director-General of European affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry, Wang Lutong, argued that China was only contributing to the global economy by continuing its trade relations with Russia. Wang said: “We oppose sanctions, and the effects of these sanctions also risk spilling to the rest of the world, leading to wars of the currency, wars of trade and finance and also risk jeopardising the supply chain and industrial chain and globalisation and even the economic order.” 

Pakistan
On 02 April, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Bajwa, condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the Islamabad Security Dialogue. However, he added: “despite legitimate security concerns of Russia, its aggression against a smaller country cannot be condoned.” Pakistan has always maintained good relations with Ukraine since its independence.

Japan
On 03 April, a report by The Japan Times mentioned how the war in Ukraine was impacting 55 per cent of Japanese companies with overseas bases. The report further mentioned that “Only 34.6% of the Japanese firms surveyed said they had taken countermeasures. As for concrete steps, 54.3% of those companies cited information-gathering in a multiple-choice question, securing inventories at 32.5% and choosing suppliers at 23.5%.” 

Egypt
On 03 April, Egypt saw an unprecedented hike in steel prices due to the war in Ukraine. Three of the country’s biggest steel manufacturers announced that they had raised the prices to 17 per cent or about LE, 3,00 per ton. A disruption in the supply chain induced the price hike as Egypt depended on Russia and Ukraine for importing scarce scrap metal, iron ore, and billet. Furthermore, the increase in the dollar price in the local market has raised production costs and imports from other countries. 

India
On 03 April, The Times of India reported on how the war in Ukraine impacted India's IT sector. Ukraine is critical for offshore and near-shore third-party services. They also provide engineering and information technology expertise and thus have created issues for American and European businesses. In the case of India, Western Europe is a crucial region that has majority clients of Indian IT companies based out of Europe. 

Global Supply Chain disruptions 
On 03 April, Forbes reported the continuing war and its implications on global supply chains. Interos, a supply chain risk management company, stated how nearly 300,000 companies in the US and Europe had suppliers in Russia and Ukraine and now face continuing issues. The report further mentioned how the war had caused the most significant shift in supply chains. Interos founder and CEO Jennifer Bisceglie said: “Continued pressure on global supply chains will exacerbate imbalances between supply and demand, causing increased inflation and potentially stagflation.” 

References: 
BBC Live,” BBC, 04 April 2022
Russian Negotiator Says Too Early for Top Meeting on Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 04 April 2022
Ukraine: As its happening,” The Moscow Times, 04 April 2022
Philip Pullella, “Pope implicitly criticises Putin on invasion, considers Kyiv trip,” Reuters, 02 April 2022 
UK says Mariupol putting up 'staunch resistance' despite 'indiscriminate strikes’,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022
UK's Johnson condemns 'despicable' killings of Ukrainian civilians,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022 
Scholz: More sanctions on Russia in coming days,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022 
Berlin rejects Ukraine's plea for infantry vehicles,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022
EU must discuss import ban on Russian gas deliveries - German defence ministry,” Reuters, 03 April 2022 
Russia 'must answer for crimes' in Ukraine says French president,” Radio France Internationale, 03 April 2022 
Michael Schnell, “NATO chief calls Bucha executions ‘horrific’,” The Hill, 03 April 2022
Greek Foreign Minister Arrives On Aid Mission As Ukraine's Odesa Hit By Air Strikes,” Radio Free Europe, 03 April 2022
Lithuanian documentary maker Kvedaravicius killed in Ukraine's Mariupol,” Reuters, 03 April 2022 
Scholz warns of global impact of war in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 02 April 2022
Red Cross tries to reach besieged Mariupol as Russia retreats from northern Ukraine,” The Times of Israel, 02 April 2022 
Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas,” Human Rights Watch, 03 April 2022
Yew Lun Tian, “China says not deliberately circumventing sanctions on Russia," Reuters, 02 April 2022
Pakistan's army chief condemns Russia, praises Ukraine's resistance,” Deutsche Welle, 02 April 2022
Kyodo, “55% of Japan firms with overseas bases feel impact of Ukraine war, poll shows,” The Japan Times, 03 April 2022 
Oliver Meier, “Back to Basics: The Nuclear Order, Arms Control, and Europe,” Arms Control Association, 02 April 2022 
Beesan Kassab, “Egypt sees unprecedented hike in steel prices as impact of war in Ukraine ripples across economy,” Madmasr, 03 April 2022 
The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the Indian IT sector,” The Times of India, 03 April 2022
Edward Segal, “Supply Chain Crisis Worsens As Russia’s War Against Ukraine Continues,” Forbes, 02 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

HUNGARY
Parliamentary elections and referendum held simultaneously
On 03 April, parliamentary elections began in Hungary. The incumbent Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, is seeking re-election to a fourth consecutive term in what is expected to be his toughest contest. His rival Péter Márki-Zay was elected by six opposition parties to represent them all and to contest against Orban. Orban has been in conflict with the European Commission for a long time. He is criticized for having steered Hungary away from European values, radically reforming the legal system, undermining the rule of law, and implementing anti-migration policies. Along with the parliamentary elections, a referendum on legislation that restricts the teaching of homosexuality and transgender topics in schools will be also be polled. (Rahl Ssan, “Polls open in Hungarian election as Orban seeks another term,” Euronews, 03 April 2022; Rita Palfi “Hungary election: Who’s running? What are the key issues? Will Viktor Orban be waving goodbye?,” Euronews, 04 April 2022)

SERBIA
Serbian Progressive Party projected to win the second term
On 03 April, incumbent President Aleksandar Vucic of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) was projected to get re-elected for his second five-year term in the upcoming presidential elections. Vucic served as Defense Minister, Prime Minister, and President for the last ten years. After casting his vote, Vucic said: “I believe in a significant and convincing victory, and I believe everyone will get what they deserve, according to how much they worked and, understandably, in accordance with the expectations of the citizens for the future.” He further promised to keep Serbia on the path of “stability, tranquillity and peace.” (“Serbia: Vucic projected to win presidential election,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022)

SWITZERLAND
Underground bunkers to be prepared for nuclear fallout
On 03 April, Switzerland is set to prepare its nuclear fallout bunkers built during the Cold war citing tensions in Ukraine. The country has promised that every person will be provided with a sheltered area if necessary. There are over nine million places throughout 365,000 private and public shelters in the country of 8.6 million residents. The large proportion of nuclear bunkers in Switzerland is used for various purposes, including military barracks and temporary housing for asylum seekers. The Swiss authorities demanded that they be emptied and converted back to nuclear bunkers within five days. (Charlotte Lam, “Nuclear bunkers for all: Switzerland is ready as international tensions mount,” Euronews, 03 April 2022)

THE UK
Activists arrested following blockade of oil terminals
On 03 April, over 80 climate change protesters were arrested by police for blocking the oil terminals against the UK’s increased oil production. Activists from the Just Stop Oil group obstructed Titan Truck Park in Grays, which held more than 100 oil tankers to serve three major oil terminals in the region. In protest, activists climbed on top of tankers at Navigator Oil Terminal in Thurrock. ExxonMobil UK, one of the country’s major privately-owned underground oil pipeline distribution networks, had to shut down three of its terminals. Assistant Chief Constable Rachel Nolan said: “This is an extremely dangerous situation for the protesters to be in. We are being clear on the risks, and are continuing to engage with them to try and bring this to a conclusion.” (“Essex Police make 83 arrests as oil terminals blocked,” BBC, 03 April 2022, “Just Stop Oil: More than 200 arrested after oil terminal protests,” BBC, 02 April 2022)


02 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #165

War in Ukraine: Day 37

A possible resurgence of Yellow Vest movement; Activists halt the UK’s refineries; The EU-China summit held virtually

Photo : EU Neighbours east


War in Ukraine: Day 37
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Two Ukrainian generals dismissed; Russia violates Mariupol’s humanitarian corridor; Ukrainian helicopters strike Belgorod? 

Ukraine in talks to use Romanian port
On 01 April, Ukraine approached Romania to permit it to export farm goods from the Black Sea port of Constanta. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said: “We and our partners are looking for alternative logistical routes to export our goods via European ports, including Constanta.” Russia has blockaded all of Kyiv’s ports since the war began, and Ukraine accounts for 12 per cent of the world’s global wheat exports, 15 per cent of maize, and about 50 per cent of the world’s sunflower oil.  

Zelenskyy dismisses two Ukrainian generals
On 01 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the dismissal of two security officials and called them traitors. He said: “Regarding antiheroes. Now, I do not have time to deal with all the traitors. But gradually, they will all be punished.” Naumov Andriy Olehovych and Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych were dismissed by Zelenskyy. However, the reasons behind the dismissal were not mentioned. He further added that those who violate the military allegiance to the people of Ukraine would “inevitably be deprived of senior military ranks.”

Zelenskyy warns of a powerful Russian strike
On 01 April, Zelenskyy warned of a possible “powerful strike” in the Donbas region as Russia claimed it would withdraw from Kyiv. He urged the people to be prepared for a possible devastating assault in the eastern region. The Pentagon also said that Moscow might be repositioning to send forces to the Donbas region.  

Russia breaking promises on Mariupol humanitarian corridor
On 01 April, the governor of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region Pavlo Kyrylenko said Russia was breaking its promises of allowing humanitarian aid to reach the encircled city of Mariupol. He added: “Humanitarian deliveries, despite all the agreements and promises of the Russian side, are not being carried out…the humanitarian corridor ... is essentially not operational.” This comes as Ukraine had sent 45 buses to evacuate its civilians from the besiged port city.   

Ukrainian helicopters strike Belgorod? 
On 01 April, Russia claimed that two Ukrainian military helicopters bombed a fuel depot in the eastern city of Belgorod. The attack would be the first by Ukraine’s forces on Russian soil since the invasion. However, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “I can neither confirm nor reject the claim that Ukraine was involved in this simply because I do not possess all the military information.” On the same day, Ukraine said it exchanged 86 members of its forces with Russia.  

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russia’s exit from the Council of Europe
On 01 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Human Rights Envoy Grigory Lukyantsev said Moscow’s decision to exit the Council was not an outcome of the situation in Ukraine. He added: “It’s no secret that this decision had been in the making for a long time….The situation in the organization was nearing a crisis long before the start of the special operation.” Lukyantsev further accused the Council of practicing double standards and claimed that it had an absence of positive changes. He even criticized the agenda of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe as it was inclined to issues against Russia and its allies. A few examples cited by TASS: “poisoning of [blogger Alexey] Navalny,’ ‘arrest and detention of Navalny,’ ‘violation of the rights of Crimean Tatars in Crimea,’ ‘violation of the rights of LGBT community,’ ‘violations human rights in Belarus.”  

Peskov on Gazprom
On 01 April, Kremlin’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that nationalizing the subsidiaries of Gazprom and Rosneft in Germany was completely unacceptable. His comments came as speculations arose that Germany’s Economy Ministry was considering nationalizing the subsidiaries of Gazprom and Rosneft. Peskov said: “Of course, such a plan would seriously violate international law and just about all the rules and laws that you can think of. Therefore, we will monitor it closely. Of course, as far as we are concerned, even the very thought of such an option is unacceptable.”  

Gas for dollars and euros? 
On 01 April, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko spoke about the benefits of exporting Russian gas for dollars and euros. She claimed that both the currencies had lost their credibility. She also talked about the sanctions imposed and said: “Amid the strongest pressures and illegitimate sanctions we still prefer to act as a responsible member of the international economic community. We have been doing nothing that might worsen conditions for our partners who are the recipients of our hydrocarbons.” Matviyenko further argued how Russia was paid for gas in dollars, euros, gold, and even in foreign exchange reserves in the past. 

Foreign Ministry on OSCE SMM
On 01 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine could not perform its functions due to political and legal circumstances. She argued that it could not carry out its duties following the previous mandate as it covered the now independent DPR and LPR territory. She added: “Therefore, Russia has not supported its extension for the next year. It means that its continued activities have no consensus support of the participating states, and therefore, cannot be conducted de jure.” Zakharova called on the OSCE SMM to commence measures to curtail its activities as its functions were de facto terminated on 07 March when its international staff was withdrawn from the regions.  

Ukraine’s attack on Belgorod
On 01 April, Peskov condemned Ukraine’s attack on a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod. He said: "Clearly, it’s not what could create conditions for further talks.” The Kremlin claimed the Ukrainian forces carried out two airstrikes on the petroleum depot, which caused a fire, but the attack had no casualties. 

Lavrov visits India
On 01 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited New Delhi and hailed India for not taking a “one-sided view” on the war. He also tried to gain the country's support to discuss the circumvention of sanctions. He said: “It is absolutely clear that more and more transactions would be done through this system using national currencies, bypassing dollar, euro and other currencies.”  

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

NATO
On the position of the Russian forces, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg observed that the Russian troops were found to be regrouping in the east of the country to multiply their attacks. Russia had brought in 1200 to 2000 troops inside from Georgia. He added: “We see continued shelling of cities and we see that Russia is re-positioning some of the troops, moving some of them around, most likely to reinforce their efforts in the Donbas region.” Apart from the above, Russia also maintains control over Kyiv and other cities and NATO expects more offensive taking place in the coming days. Agreeing on the same, UK Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace warned that Russia was not withdrawing its forces, but rather repositioning.

Northern Ireland
On 01 April, Northern Ireland opened “four advice centres,” in Belfast, Ballymena, Craigavon and Newry to help out the refugees fleeing from Ukraine. Till now the government has not given an exact count of refugees who has entered, but it estimates it to be many hundreds. As per Stormont officials, 40 visas have been given so far for those who have chosen to stay in Northern Ireland.

The US
On 01 April, the US Defence department approved USD 300 million as “security assistance” for Ukraine to boost its defence capacity. The fund will be an addition to the existing sanction of USD 1.6 billion. In a statement, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said: “This decision underscores the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in support of its heroic efforts to repel Russia’s war of choice.”

The UK
On 01 April, UK Finance Ministry announced the issue of a license for receipt and transfer of payments for non-rouble debt given by Russia’s central bank. The wealth fund is expected to run from 01 April and 30 June.
On 01 April, the UK Ministry of Defense reported that Ukraine's military had taken back the villages of Sloboda and Lukashivka located in the south of Chernihiv. Both Chernihiv and Kyiv have been attacked by Russia using air and missile strikes. It said: “Ukraine has also continued to make successful but limited counter attacks to the east and north east of Kyiv.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

MNCs
On 01 April, Tate & Lyle Plc UK’s sweetener company announced the increase in prices of its products to tackle the market pressure rising from the Ukraine war. Being one of the largest producers of sweeteners, it is said that due to rise in the cost price of raw materials, energy, and logistics has led the firm to hike the selling price.

The London Metal Exchange declared the supply suspension of Russian metals into the UK. Along with the metals, lead and aluminium will be also be restricted from the supply. Although Russia is the largest nickel producer, it will continue to be supplied to the UK.

Heineken, a Dutch brewing company announced the end of its business in Russia. It had previously stopped its sale, production and new investments. It also said that it will not make a profit through a transfer of ownership and it expects the amount to be around EUR 400 million.

China
On the question of peace talks, it was observed that China's President Xi Jinping comments in the video conference of the EU summit, asking the EU to consider China as an independent state. Post the EU-China summit in Brussels, both parties agreed on the Ukraine war was a threat to the world. The head of the European Council, Charles Michel said: “We will also remain vigilant on any attempts to aid Russia financially or militarily. However, positive steps by China to help end the war would be welcomed by all Europeans and by the global community.’

India
India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman confirmed that India will continue to purchase crude oil from Russia as per the country’s needs, but at a discount due to hike in oil prices.

Mexico
On 01 April, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has reported a contraction for a continuous 25th month due to rising inflation, global shortage in supplies, economic instability and most importantly Ukraine war. According to the economics associate director at S&P Global: “PMI data showed the second-sharpest increase in input costs in the 11-year survey history, which companies often linked to raw material scarcity, the pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine.”

Canada
On 01 April, Canada’s intelligence observed the disinformation campaigns launched by Russian backed disinformation campaigns supporting the killings in Ukraine. It claimed that: “Russia had promoted stories that "falsely categorize Russian protesters and citizens opposed to the invasion as supporting neo-Nazis and genocide.” Although the Communications Security Establishment (CSE) agency did not provide any evidence on the stated campaigns, it said: “Later the Communications Security Establishment (CSE) agency did not provide any evidence on the stated campaigns.”

References: 
Ukraine eyes Romanian port for key farm exports,” Radio France Internationale, 01 April 2022
Zelensky: Two Ukrainian generals dismissed for being ‘traitors’,” The Hill, 31 March 2022
Local governor says Russia is breaking promises on humanitarian corridor for Mariupol,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Russia’s exit from Council of Europe isn’t directly tied to situation in Ukraine — MFA,” TASS, 01 April 2022
Kremlin hits out at idea of nationalizing German subsidiaries of Gazprom, Rosneft,” TASS, 01 April 2022 
Russia would take risks, if it continued to sell gas for dollars, euros — FC speaker,” TASS, 01 April 2022 
Impossible for OSCE SMM in Ukraine to implement its previous mandate — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 01 April 2022 
Kremlin strikes back at Ukrainian attack on Belgorod fuel depot,” TASS, 01 April 2022 
Krishna N Das, “Russia’s Lavrov hopes to bypass sanctions in trade with "friend" India,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 37 of the Russian invasion,” The Irish Times, 01 April 2022
Russia alleges Ukrainian helicopters struck Belgorod fuel depot,” Al Jazeera, 01 April 2022

Ukraine war: Russian forces regrouping for attack – Nato,” BBC, 01 April 2022
Ukraine war: Northern Ireland advice centres to open for refugees,” BBC, 01 April 2022
Pentagon commits extra US$300 million in security aid to Ukraine,” The Straits Times, 01 April 2022
UK says non-rouble debt payments can be paid until June 30,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
UK says Ukraine has retaken villages of Sloboda, Lukashivka,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Sweetener maker Tate & Lyle to raise prices as Ukraine crisis pushes up costs,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
London Metal Exchange bans some Russian metal from British warehouses,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Mexico's factories contract for 25th straight month, inflation rises,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Russia using disinformation to back Ukraine invasion, Canadian agency says,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Chinese trade with Russia feels the sting of Ukraine war,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
Chinese Premier says China pushes for peace talks on Ukraine 'in its own way' – state media,” Reuters, 01 April 2022

China's Xi calls on EU to view China 'independently' -state media,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
EU, China agree on Ukraine war threat, EU's Michel,” Reuters, 01 April 2022
India to continue oil purchases from Russia - finance minister,” Reuters, 01 April 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Possible resurgence of Yellow Vest movement before elections
On 01 April, France24 reported on the Yellow Vest uprising of 2018 and examined its potential to rise. The Yellow Vests demonstrations staged 60 consecutive weeks of protest against economic hardship, inequality, and a discredited political elite. They patrolled roundabouts throughout the country at all hours and marched to the streets of towns and cities every Saturday. The Yellow Vest uprising was sparked by an unpopular fuel tax that was nominally supposed to fund France’s transition to a green economy. But it became apparent that the proceeds would be directed to compensate for the deficit created by the government’s tax cuts for businesses. A researcher at Sciences-Po in Bordeaux, Magali Della Sudda, who has studied the uprising, stated: “There are signs the movement is picking up again, focusing once again on its original themes of purchasing power and social justice.” (Benjamin Dodman, “Will France's Yellow Vests come back to haunt Macron on election day?,” France24, 02 April 2022)

THE UK
Fines to be collected for Downing parties.
On 01 April, the UK officials started to collect fines after the Downing Street party probe. The fines were imposed on parties conducted during the lockdown restrictions on 18 June 2020 at Downing Street offices and residences. A few of the parties were attended and organized by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The incident had previously jeopardized Johnson's position, with members of his party demanding his resignation and plummeting confidence in his leadership. However, as the public attention was directed toward the war in Ukraine, many opposition leaders suppressed their calls to focus on the developments in eastern Europe. (“UK officials begin to receive 50 pound fines following probe into Downing Street parties - Sky,” Reuters, 01 April 2022)

Activists halt the UK’s refineries
On 01 April, climate activists group Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil blocked ten oil refineries in London, Birmingham, and Southampton in protest of climate change. A spokesperson for the group, Andrew Smith stated: “We will be more disruptive than ever, and we will be impossible to ignore.” To avoid the worst scenarios of global warming destruction projected by scientists, the Extinction Rebellion is calling for an emergency intervention from governments and a massive shift from polluting industries. Another activist group present at the protest, Just Stop Oil, describes itself as a coalition of groups working together to end the exploration, exploitation, and production of fossil fuels. (Andrew Macaskill and Muvija M, “Climate activists plan daily protests after blocking 10 UK oil terminals,” Reuters, 01 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The EU-China summit held virtually
On 01 April, the EU and China held a virtual summit concerning the war in Ukraine and China’s ambiguous position over Russia’s actions. While China has expressed concerns over the rising conflict in Ukraine, there are disagreements regarding the critical causes of the conflict. China backs Russia’s anti-NATO narrative, whilst the EU and the West oppose it. The EU diplomats also spoke with the Premier of China’s State Council, Li Keqianng. Li said that Beijing opposes the division of blocs, taking sides and further mentioned that China pushed for peace  "its own way." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, warned China not to interfere with the EU’s sanctions and that any support to Russia would damage its reputation. (“EU-China summit focuses on war in Ukraine amid tense relations,” Deutsche Welle, 01 April 2022)


01 April 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #164

War in Ukraine: Day 36

France exceeds deadline to abide by the council of state ruling;Illegal immigrants drow near Canary Island; Crypto-assets transfers to be closely tracked by the EU; Disappointments arise over the UN Biodiversity talks

Photo : Mikhail Klimentyev/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS


War in Ukraine: Day 36
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in the Australian parliament and evacuation in Mariupol

Zelensky’s address
On 31 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his virtual address in the Australian parliament highlighted three key factors. One, is the threat to global security, where Russia is being allowed to invade a neighbouring country openly, without any power to stop it. Second, the risk of nuclear weapons, he urged imposing sanctions for “nuclear blackmail.” Third, Russia is a motivator for other aggressive nations. He said: “But the most terrible thing, if we don’t stop Russia now if we don’t hold Russia accountable, then some of the countries of the world that we're looking forward to a similar war against their neighbours will decide that such things are possible for them as well. The fate of global security is decided now.” Ahead of the Australian parliament, Zelensky addressed the Dutch Parliament, where he urged weapons support, reconstruction aid and stopping the existing businesses with Russia.

Zelensky warned of Russia's attempts of amassing bigger troops in the Donbas region for a bigger attack. The Russian military also reported that: “A planned regrouping of troops is taking place in these areas, its goal is to intensify actions in priority areas and, above all, complete the operation to completely liberate Donbas.” In his everyday video address, remarked the disbelief in Russia’s word to de-escalate. Pointing to the negotiation talks he said, there was no progress and does not believe in “verbal constructions.”

Ukraine Military advance
On 31 March, Ukraine’s ground forces Deputy Chief of staff observed that the offensive capacity of Russia had gone down and the tactics appeared to be changing from direct attacks to long-range attacks. He said: “The enemy has almost exhausted its offensive potential, but the forces that remain around Kyiv are not small.” Apart from this the Ukrainian Atomic Energy Ministry reported the exit of Russian troops from the Chernobyl power plant.

Other developments
On 31 March, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported that the Ukrainian government had sent 45 buses to rescue out the citizens from Mariupol. The move comes after the Russian Defense Ministry agreed to open the humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

President Putin’s new decree
On 31 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a decree mandating the payment for Russian gas to be in Roubles from 01 April. He said that the sanctioning of the West began a year back and it shall be hard to impose new sanctions. On Europe’s shift to buying liquid natural gas from the US, he pointed out that it will lead to loss of jobs in Europe. Apart from this after the telephonic call with French President Emmanuel Macron, he demanded Ukraine to surrender Mariupol. The Defense Ministry called for a one-day ceasefire to allow the evacuation of people from Mariupol.

Russian Foreign Ministry
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced a new set of sanctions on the EU leaders, banning their entry into Russia, it also blacklisted some EU member states. According to the Ministry: “The restrictions apply to the top leadership of the European Union; including a number of European commissioners and heads of EU military structures, as well as the vast majority of members of the European Parliament who promote anti-Russian policies.”

Other developments
On 31 March, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin permitted “parallel imports,” as part of the support for small and medium businesses. Till now the goods in Russia were sold without trademark authorisation. This was done to ease the access of goods for people despite the sanctions put by other foreign countries. Currently, the annual inflation stands at 15.66 per cent and other essential commodities are expected to rise more.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 
 
The US
On 31 March, US President Joe Biden speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin was self-isolating in Russia. He said: “He seems to be self-isolated and there’s some indication that he has fired or put under house arrest some of his advisers….But I don’t want to put too much stock in that at this time.” 

On the same day, the US said it imposed fresh sanctions on Russia that target its technology sector. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: “We will continue to target Putin’s war machine with sanctions from every angle until this senseless war of choice is over.” The sanctions were imposed to target Russia in different sectors and deter “malicious cyber actors.” 

Italy 
On 31 March, Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that he did not expect Russia to cut off its gas supplies. Draghi made these comments at a conference and mentioned that in his telephonic call with Putin, the latter assured him that the gas contracts would continue and that European firms can continue to pay in euros and dollars. However, he said: “What I understood, but I may be wrong, is that the conversion of the payment ... is an internal matter of the Russian Federation.” 

France and Germany declined to pay for gas in roubles
On 31 March, France and Germany rejected the demand by Russia to pay for all gas purchases being paid in roubles. Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck said: “It is important for us not to give a signal that we will be blackmailed by Putin.” On the other hand, France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire mentioned that both nations were preparing for the possibility of Russia halting deliveries. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price also mentioned how this was a tactic by Putin due to Moscow’s economic and financial situation, which has escalated due to the sanctions. 

The UK
On 31 March, the UK government said it had expanded its sanctions to cover 14 more people and organisations, including the group that controlled RT, a television channel. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that these sanctions were aimed at countering the fake news that Russian media spread regarding the invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions also targeted Col Gen Mikhail Mizintsev, the officer in charge of Russia’s siege of Mariupol.

Norway
On 31 March, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said that Russian President Vladimir Putin issued him that Russia would create a humanitarian corridor for the besieged civilians in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Stoere’s comments were an outcome of an hour-long call with Putin, where he also said he had urged him to put an end to the war in Ukraine. He further said: “We have minimal expectations of what could be achieved, but nothing should be left untried in the situation we are now in.” 

NATO
On 31 March, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at Brussels said that Russian forces in Ukraine were not withdrawing but regrouping. He said: “According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region.”Stoltenberg also said that the military alliance would need more convincing as while the talks were going on in Istanbul, Moscow continued its attacks in Ukraine. 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
 
The UN
On 31 March, the UN said it delivered aid to northern Ukraine, but in the south, they could not access the regions due to the cities being encircled. The UN humanitarian coordinator Osnat Lubrani said, "…basic household items, including blankets and kettles from the UN refugee agency, will support 1,500 people. Sanitation kits will also help 6,000 people with hygiene and drinking water." She added that accessing Mariupol, Kherson and other southern Ukrainian cities was not possible due to safety concerns. 

Oil Prices
On 31 March, US President Joe Biden announced the largest ever release of oil reserves to decrease gasoline prices. He said: "This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as a bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up." Biden further said the US would release one million barrels of oil for the next six months to control oil prices. 

Red Cross
On 31 March, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it was preparing to evacuate citizens from Mariupol. A staff member with the ICRC team, Lucile Marbeau, said: "We're here because really, we hope to be able to facilitate safe passage for civilians desperately wanting to flee Mariupol." The ICRC said it also had a team assembled with medicines, food, water, hygiene items, and other essentials near the city of Zaporizhzhia. Russia had committed to a ceasefire on the route between Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia to evacuate citizens. 

UNHRC 
On 31 March, UNHCR said about 4,059,105 had fled the country since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. UNHCR said: "We are confronted with the realities of a massive humanitarian crisis that is growing by the second." Apart from them, about 13 million people have been internally displaced or were stranded in affected areas. 

India
On 31 March, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited India to strengthen their ties and to discuss aspects of the situation in Ukraine. Truss' visit comes as India had not condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Lavrov was in Delhi to discuss India bypassing sanctions and increasing its Russian oil and gas purchase.

References:
BBC Live,” BBC, 31 March 2022
Ukraine War: Putin demands Mariupol surrender to end shelling,” BBC, 31 March 2022
White House says the US has evidence that the war against Ukraine has been ‘a strategic disaster’ – as it happened,” The Guardian, 24 March 2022
Russians Start to Withdraw from Chernobyl: U.S.,” The Moscow Times, 24 March 2022
Russia will view refusal of paying for gas in rubles as breach of contract — Putin,” TASS, 23 March 2022
France, Germany reject Putin demands for gas payments in roubles as ‘blackmail’,” France24, 31 March 2022 
Russian troops not withdrawing but regrouping in Ukraine, NATO says,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Terje Solsvik and Gwladys Fouche, “Russia's Putin assured his commitment to humanitarian access in Ukraine, Norway PM says,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Crispian Balmer, “Italy's Draghi does not expect halt to Russian gas flows,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Peter Walker, “UK sanctions target Russian general and media heavyweights,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022 
UN delivers aid to northern Ukraine, says south inaccessible,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022 
Daphne Psaledakis, “U.S. targets Russia's technology sector in fresh sanctions,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Biden says Putin seems to be self-isolating,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Refugees fleeing Ukraine (since 24 February 2022),” Operational Data portal Ukraine Refugee situation, 31 March 2022
Liz Truss visits India on same day as Sergei Lavrov,” BBC, 31 March 2022 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events, day 36,” Al Jazeera, 31 March 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 36 of the Russian invasion,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022 
Ukraine: NATO warns Russia 'repositioning,' not withdrawing — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 31 March 2022 
Ukraine war: Putin being misled by fearful advisers, US says,” BBC, 31 March 2022
Thomas Wintle, “Ukraine conflict day 36: Putin threatens to shut off Europe's gas, Moscow bars EU leaders,” CGTN, 31 March 2022


 

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
France exceeds the deadline to abide by the council of state's ruling
On 31 March, France missed the deadline issued by the Council of State to reorient itself with the Paris Climate Agreement objectives. In July 2021, the Council of State criticized the government's failure to comply with the 2015 agreement to combat climate change. Following an assessment, it was concluded that the government was not doing enough to meet the agreement's goal of cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990. The council granted nine months to take necessary measures on it. (“France fails to meet court deadline to get Paris climate deal objectives back on track,” Euronews, 31 March 2022)

SPAIN
Illegal immigrants drowned near Canary Island
On 31 March, 25 migrants are believed to have drowned at sea near Spain's Canary Islands during an attempted sea crossing. Survivors testify that many were thrown overboard after running out of supplies. On 19 March, over 75 individuals, including several children, emigrated from Mauritania, but only 48 people arrived on the Spanish island of El Hierro. More than 40,000 migrants, primarily from Morocco, immigrated to Spain by the sea in 2021. However, at least 1,255 individuals died attempting to cross the border. (“Twenty-five migrants feared dead off Spain's Canary Islands,” Euronews, 31 March 2022)

THE UK
Brexit, rising demand and the Ukraine war drive the UK’s cost of living
On 30 March, The Guardian examined the cost of living for low and average income groups in the UK. The extra income available to the UK's lower-income households will decrease by a fifth this year, leaving  EUR 850 less to spend on non-essentials. For the average income group, it is expected to reduce by over 6.5 per cent. The rise in prices is being driven by a mix of Brexit, recovery in demand as businesses reopen following pandemic lockdowns and the war in Ukraine. Chief executive of Retail Economics, Richard Lim said: “Rising inflation will see spending power under huge pressure, particularly for the least affluent households who spend a disproportionate amount of their income on non-discretionary items such as food, energy, and fuel.” (Sarah Butler, “UK’s low-income families to lose a fifth of their spare cash in 2022,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022)

REGIONAL
Crypto-assets transfers to be closely tracked by the EU
On 31 March, the EU legislators endorsed stronger traceability requirements for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency transfers. The proposed legislation would oblige cryptocurrency firms to gather and share data on transactions. The proposal would also target individuals holding crypto assets rather than exchanges, by requiring them to retain the records and inform the authorities whenever a transaction worth more than EUR 1,000 occurs. The parliamentary committees also want the European Banking Authority (EBA) to issue a public record of crypto-asset service providers who may be vulnerable to money laundering and other criminal activity, as well as a list of non-compliant enterprises. (Natalie Huet, “EU lawmakers back tough traceability rules on crypto transfers in fight against money laundering,” Euronews, 31 March 2022)

Disappointments arise over the UN Biodiversity talks
On 29 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the disappointments over the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The objective of CBD is to compose and adopt a global agreement to end environmental degradation and promote restoration. The treaty is envisaged to achieve for government-led biodiversity action what the Paris Agreement did for climate action. The document must be completed in time for the COP15 conference in Kunming, China. Greenpeace International, as an observer, appealed for the same political leadership that was exhibited in the Paris Climate Agreement to provoke urgency in the discussions. Director-General of World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Marco Lambertini stated: “As we move forward, political leadership is going to be critical to resolve some of the stickiest points and to drive consensus. And so we are calling upon heads of states, prime ministers and ministers of the environment to drive that leadership.” (“Calls for leadership ahead of Kunming biodiversity deal,” Deutsche Welle, 29 March 2022)


31 March 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #163

War in Ukraine: Day 35

Vatican trial defendant Carlino testifies on the botched deal; The UK and Russia’s Foreign Ministers visit India; EU to present plans for circular economy

Photo : Reuters/Yves Herman


War in Ukraine: Day 35
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Russian withdrawal misleading; Zelenskyy speaks to Biden; Russia continues bombardment

Zelenskyy is doubtful of Russian withdrawal
On 30 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he did not believe Russia’s pledge to cut back its military activities in Northern Ukraine. He said: “Ukrainians are not naive people. Ukrainians have already learned during these 34 days of invasion and over the past eight years of the war in Donbas that only a concrete result can be trusted. The facts – if they change on our land.” He further urged the people not to lose vigilance and trust Russians even though the peace talks appeared optimistic. Zelenskyy mentioned the war on the ground and said: “The enemy is still in our territory. The shelling of our cities continues. Mariupol is blocked. Missiles and airstrikes do not stop. This is the reality. These are the facts.

On the same day, Ukraine’s General armed forces staff urged the people not to believe the Russian statements of withdrawal. The General staff of the armed forces mentioned: “…the so-called ‘withdrawal of troops’ is probably a rotation of individual units and aims to mislead the military leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and create a misconception about the occupiers’ refusal to plan to encircle the city of Kyiv.” The US and the allies also urged the West not to drop their guard against Russia. 

Zelenskyy speaks to Biden
On 30 March, Zelenskyy spoke with US President Joe Biden and discussed the situation in Ukraine. Zelenskyy put forward specific defense support Ukraine needed and also asked Biden to enhance sanctions against Russia. Zelenskyy further spoke about financial and humanitarian aid as the US said it would provide USD 500 million in “direct budgetary aid.” 

Russia continues bombardment
On 30 March, the continued shelling by Moscow killed one person in the Russian-held areas of Donetsk. Authorities in Luhansk mentioned 35 attacks on local towns in the last 24 hours. The shellings hit a few flats including a kindergarten. This comes as Russia said it would be focusing on the eastern Ukraine region and would downgrade its military activities in regions apart from Donbas.   

Ukraine’s Deputy PM on special UN mission
On 30 March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk spoke about the danger of ammunition exploding near the Chernobyl nuclear power station. She said: “We demand that the UN security council immediately take measures to demilitarise the Chernobyl exclusion zone and introduce a special UN mission there to eliminate the risk of repeating a nuclear catastrophe.” She further urged Russia to allow 97 humanitarian corridors to be established in the worst-hit towns in Ukraine. 

Attacks on Chernihiv
On 30 March, Chernihiv’s Governor Viacheslav Chaus informed the BBC of the continued attacks on the city despite promises of reducing military activities. Viacheslav Chaus said: “Right now, as we speak, I can hear which I think are mortar shells…We don’t believe [the Russians] because we’ve already seen that there isn’t a single time when their military forces keep their word.”  

Devastation in Mariupol
On 30 March, satellite photos released by an observation company called Maxar showed the irreversible damage caused by shelling in the port city of Mariupol. The city’s mayor said about 5000 people, including children, have been killed in the city since Russia’s invasion began. Earlier, Putin had also told France’s President Emmanuel Macron that the shelling would not stop until Ukrainian forces lay down their arms.  

On the same day, Mariupol saw a planned evacuation failing as complications arose between the two sides. The UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet is also investigating forcible evacuations by Russian forces in the areas it controlled. 

The Moscow view: 
Claims by Russia

Russia and Iran discuss sanctions
On 30 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to Iran about the sanctions imposed by the West. Russia can continue dealing with countries with sanctions imposed, Lavrov spoke to Iran to discuss steps to circumvent sanctions.  

Shelling on Russian military camp
On 30 March, a temporary Russian military camp near the border with Ukraine was hit by shelling suspected to be perpetuated by the Ukrainians. Videos of the shelling were posted online, but many new agencies could not confirm it. TASS said that four people were injured in the blasts. 

Gas payments in rubles
On 30 March, the Kremlin announced that it would eventually ask its natural gas buyers to pay in rubles. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “Payments and deliveries are a time-consuming process.” However, Peskov said that a due process would be followed as the Central Bank and energy giant Gazprom are expected to present the system to receive payments in the ruble to Putin first. 

Russian goods to be exported for rubles
On 30 March, Speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said Russia planned to expand the list of goods to be exchanged for rubles. The list would include items like grain, crude oil, and lumber goods that would have to be paid for in roubles. He said: “European countries have all the market opportunities to pay in rubles. There is no tragedy in it. The situation is much more terrible when there is money but no goods.” He also said this would benefit Russia and suggested expanding the list further.  

Russia’s perspective on the talks in Istanbul 
On 30 March, Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky said at talks in Istanbul, they heard the formulated stance of Ukraine. Russia’s International Affairs Council (RIAC) Director General Andrey Kortunov said: “Russia is ready to work with Ukraine’s leadership and does not seek regime change.” However, he said no agreement was reached upon the territorial issues and that Russia would continue its military operations, at least in the Donbas region. Medinsky added that the Ukrainian forces would either be encircled or pushed back. Medinsky further said: “I want to emphasise separately that our country’s position on principle regarding Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged.”  

Lavrov’s visit to China
On 30 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tunxi, China. The two leaders discussed the war in Ukraine and ensured that the agreements between the two countries were consistently implemented.  

Sanctions on Russia leading to a global crisis
On 30 March, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, mentioned how the sanctions against Russia led to a possible global economic crisis. He said: “The actual causes threatening the global food market with serious turbulence are not in Russia’s actions but rather is the unrestrained sanction hysteria the West has unleashed against Russia giving no thought either to the population of the countries of the so-called global south or to their own citizens.” However, he reiterated that Russia was committed to its international liabilities and extended a security guarantee to Ukrainian troops who wanted to surrender.  

Claims of recruiting 16,000 Middle East fighters 
On 30 March, in a follow-up report on Russia calling Syrian soldiers to join the war in Ukraine, the BBC mentioned how Moscow now claims that it had recruited 16,000 fighters from the Middle East. A recruiter said: “The recruitment to Ukraine is exactly like how we recruited to Libya; there are representatives in the regions….You have the right to change your decision after you apply. No one will force you to go.” Syria has been facing a crisis induced by instability and war, and thus, fighters are inclined to accept Russia’s offer to fight in Ukraine.  

Corporates face difficulties continuing in Russia
On 30 March, due to the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, about 250 foreign companies left Russia in response to the war. This has led to a corporate rejection of Russia in fear of not only retaliatory sanctions or business risks but mainly due to ethical reasons. McDonald’s’ CEO Chris Kempczinski said: “our values mean we cannot ignore the needless human suffering unfolding in Ukraine.”  

The West view:
Responses the UK and the EU
Germany and Austria
Germany and Austria have proposed an emergency plan to alternate for the cut-off on Russian gas supply. The move comes as Russia places a strict demand for unfriendly countries to payback in roubles for the exported energy supply. Germany has strategized by asking its consumers and businesses to reduce their consumption to work ahead for the upcoming shortage and Austria has confirmed to tighten its monitoring of the energy market. Along with both, UK also denied paying in roubles to Russian commodities stating the impact on industries and manufactures.

The UK
On 30 March, the UK government announced new set of sanctions on aircrafts and ships of Russian Oligarchs or their businesses. The new move will add strength to the existing sanctions amongst businesses. Especially, plane manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus have stopped supplying components to Russia upon sanctions from the West. It has also issues 25,500 visas to Ukrainian refugees under the new scheme, so far the applications count stand to 59,500.

On 30 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported Russian troops were hit with huge losses and due to which have been pushed to return to Russia and Belarus to recoup efforts. According to the ministry: “Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having re-organising its units in forward areas within Ukraine.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

The UN
On 30 March, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that more than four million people had left Ukraine due to the war and close to 6.5 million people had been displaced across Ukraine. According to the research taken by International Organisation of Migration (IOM) found the reasons behind the internal displacement. It found that mostly displaced were women, who were pregnant or disabled or was a victim of war. Amongst the European countries in the ascending order, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Russia, Slovakia, and Belarus found to be the common destinations of the refugees.

China
On 30 March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a meeting said that China and Russia is “more determined,” to boost their cooperation in terms of bilateral ties. He said: “China is willing to work with Russia to take China-Russian ties to a higher level in a new era under the guidance of the consensus reached by the heads of state.” On the question of peace talks, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that China has “its own way” to pursue its peace talks and confirmed that it will go by international law and norms.

Middle-East
Recent reports state that Russia had signed close to 16,000 soldiers from Middle-East, mostly from Syria to fight against Ukraine. They have been offered USD 7000 in return for the troop deployment by Russia and the requests to join has been continuous due to current economic crisis in Syria.

References:

Russia says Ukraine willing to meet core demands, but work continues,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
Russia, Iran to take practical steps to circumvent Western sanctions -RIA cites Lavrov,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
Shell hits military camp in Russia, most likely from Ukrainian side - Tass,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
Russia Will Gradually Transfer Gas Payments to Rubles: Kremlin,” The Moscow Times, 30 March 2022 
State Duma speaker suggests expanding list of Russian goods exported for rubles,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
Press review: Takeaways from Istanbul talks and US pressures Arab world on Russia,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
Russia interested in solid, consistent development of relations with China, says Lavrov,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
West’s unilateral anti-Russian sanctions leading to crisis of historic scale — diplomat,” TASS, 30 March 2022 
Nigel Gould-Davies, “Corporate Rejection of Russia Marks New Era of Political Risk,” The Moscow Times, 30 March 2022
Russia claims to have recruited 16,000 Middle East fighters,” BBC, 30 March 2022
Paul Kirby, “Russian bombardment intensifies in east,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
Hugo Bachega, “‘This night was rough' - attacks continue in Chernihiv,” BBC, 30 March 2022
Satellite photos show scale of devastation in Mariupol,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
What was the reaction to Russia's pull back pledge?,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
Pull back pledge designed to mislead - Ukraine's military,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
Ukraine's deputy PM: special UN mission needed to eliminate risk of nuclear accident at Chernobyl,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022
‘Ukrainians are not naive’: Zelenskiy voices doubt on Russian withdrawal,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022
Russian troop withdrawal designed to ‘mislead’, Ukrainian military says,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022
How many Ukrainians have fled their homes and where have they gone?,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
Ukraine war: The Syrians signing up to fight for Russia,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing,” BBC, 30 March 2022 
UK introduces new sanctions powers targetting Russian oligarchs' aircraft and ships,” Reuters, 30 March 2022

UK issues 25,500 visas to Ukrainian refugees as millions flee from war,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
Britain won't pay in roubles for Russian gas, PM spokesman says,” Reuters, 30 March 2022
China, Russia 'more determined' to boost ties, Beijing says,” Reuters, 30 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

REGIONAL
Vatican trial defendant Carlino testifies on a botched deal 
On 30 March, Monsignor Mauro Carlino testified on the botched London real estate deal involving Pope Francis. The defendant testified that Pope Francis approved a EUR 15 million settlement to withdraw from the botched deal. In 2014 the Vatican's Secretariat of State, Cardinal Pietro Parra invested EUR 350 million on a luxury building in London with Italian broker Raffaele Mincione. The Vatican suspected it was being scammed by Mincione in 2018 and resorted to another broker, Gianluigi Torzi, to get out of the initial contract. Carlino said that he and other Vatican negotiators agreed to pay Torzi EUR 15 million in May 2019 to exit the deal. Prosecutors said the Vatican lost EUR 217 million; some of it was donations by the faithful. The trial is adjourned until 5 April. (Philip Pullella, “Pope approved payment for Vatican to exit botched deal, court told,” Reuters, 31 March 2022)

EU to present plans for circular economy
On 30 March, the European Commission said, it would present its proposals for the EU's transition to a circular economy. This comes as an effort to move toward long-term sustainability. The circular economy project offers tools to individuals that encourage reusing and repairing rather than buying new instruments. The aim is to provide individuals with high-quality tools so they don't have to buy cheap, low-quality items that they may never use again. Policy Officer of European Environmental Bureau Jean-Pierre Schweitzer stated: "if you can access spare parts locally rather than having to import them from the other side of the globe, this means that at a local scale where you have more control of your supply chain, you can be more resilient." (Aida Sanchez Alonso, “Brussels to present circular economy plans in bid to reduce waste,” Euronews, 29 March 2022)

SPORTS
Barcelona beat Real Madrid by 5-2
On 30 March, a record 91,533 spectators witnessed Barcelona beat Real Madrid in the Women's Champions League at Camp Nou football stadium. It was the largest audience that a women's game has ever gathered for in a stadium in Spain. This game outnumbered the previous record of nearly 30,000 seats when Barcelona played Atletico Madrid in 2019. Barcelona beat its rival Real Madrid 5-2 and reached the semi-finals with an aggregate 8-3 win. (Sid Lowe, “Record crowd sees Barcelona Women beat Real Madrid in Champions League,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The UK and Russia’s Foreign Ministers visit India
On 31 March, the UK’s Foreign Minister Liz Truss mentioned that she would visit India on 31 March as a part of her broader diplomatic effort on the war in Ukraine. Her trip will coincide with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who is also visiting India for two days. The UK foreign ministry said she would emphasize the role of democracies working together to deter aggressors. Furthermore, Truss will also unveil a new joint cyber security initiative and increase maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Her plan to visit comes after India refused to condemn Russia and join the West in issuing sanctions. (“UK's Truss to visit India on same day as Russia's Lavrov,” Reuters, 31 March 2022)


30 March 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #162

War in Ukraine: Day 34

Heatwave parameters increased in the UK; The EU files a dispute over the UK’s green subsidy; Macron faces tough competition as Le Pen gains support

Photo : Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 34
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

 

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in Danish Parliament and continuing attacks

Zelensky’s address
On 24 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his virtual address to the Danish Parliament demanded the imposition of stricter and tightening sanctions put on Russia. He recommended blocking trade, oil commodities and closing down the port access to Russian ships. In the address, he also highlighted the worsening situation in Mariupol, where more than 100,000 people had been cornered by Russia using force and shelling.

Ukraine Military advance
On 29 March, Ukraine’s armed forces warned against taking action relating to the treatment of prisoners of war if found to be violating. In the statement, it said: “All information that comes is checked by the armed forces of Ukraine and, if there is a violation, appropriate legal decisions will be made regarding that military personnel who violated the laws on the treatment of prisoners of war.”

Negotiation talks
In the ongoing talk with Russia in Turkey, Ukraine has asked for neutral status to acquire a security guarantee. This means Ukraine will not engage in any military alliances or host exercises, it will also include the discussion on deciding the status of Crimea. According to the negotiator, Oleksander Chaly: “If we manage to consolidate these key provisions, and for us, this is the most fundamental, then Ukraine will be in a position to actually fix its current status as a non-bloc and non-nuclear state in the form of permanent neutrality.

Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 29 March, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said the plans to open three corridors for evacuation from Mariupol, which has remained cut from basic necessities, making it lives of civilians difficult.  

Other developments
Adviser to Ukraine’s President Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak brought out the topics of discussion in the talks happening between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The key points were “security guarantees and organisation of ceasefire” to solve the humanitarian problem.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

On 29 March, Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin after the talks said that Russia will be drawing back its military from the cities around Kyiv and Chernihiv. This decision has seen the first progress from the talks. In the press conference he said: In order to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and achieving the ultimate goal of agreeing and signing (an) agreement, a decision was made to radically, by a large margin, reduce military activity in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions.”

On the same day, Russia announced the dismissal of 10 diplomats from the Baltic states as a countermove to Latvia’s removal of Russian diplomats. It accused the actor of Baltic states by stating it was "provocative" and "groundless." Russia also claimed to have destroyed one of the fuel depots in Ukraine in the Rivne region using cruise missiles.

On 29 March, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Information Ministry reported that the centre of Mariupol city was fully under the control of the DPR forces. It also disclosed that close to 94 towns in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions were liberated. In the statement: “The forces of the LPR’s People’s Militia have liberated 94 towns in the LPR and DPR. Several areas remain under the Ukrainian force’s control.” Apart from this, TASS stated that since the invasion 490,000 people had been moved out of the eastern Ukraine regions into Russia. The movement rate is observed to be increasing faster than estimated.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
  

The US
On 29 March, the Eureporter stated that the officials of the US and Germany met to discuss LNG and hydrogen supplies as ways to increase Berlin’s energy supply. The war in Eastern Europe has led European countries to look for alternative energy sources and move away from their dependency on Russia. The meeting would consist of US Commerce Department officials and executives from LNG and hydrogen energy companies. This comes as US President Joe Biden had promised to help Europe get rid of Russian gas supplies. 

On the same day, the US and the allies said they were planning new sanctions targeting sectors that would directly impact Russia’s economy, which was critical for sustaining its invasion of Ukraine. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said: “In addition to sanctioning companies in sectors that enable the Kremlin’s malign activities, we also plan to take actions to disrupt their critical supply chains.” He also mentioned that the US plans to target alternative military suppliers that continue to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition used in Ukraine. 

Also, on 29 March, Biden announced the proposal of USD 6.9 billion allocated to address the issues in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Xinhua news agency reported: “This funding will enhance the capabilities and readiness of US Forces, (NATO) allies, and regional partners in the face of Russian aggression.” Also, in the budget, the US has kept USD 682 million to support Ukraine’s military needs, such as “security, energy, cybersecurity issues, disinformation, macroeconomic stabilisation, and civil society resilience.” 

On the same day, Biden mentioned that it would be better to wait and see Russia implement its plans to de-escalate the conflict. Biden said: “I don’t read anything into it until I see what their actions are…. We’ll see if they follow through with what they’re suggesting. There are negotiations that continued today, one in Turkey and others.” 

The UK
On 29 March, the UK’s cyber security centre said it was continuously providing services to Ukraine to support it against Russian cyber attacks. The move could likely cause Russia to attack the UK’s interests in retaliation. Therefore the UK’s Cyber Security Centre said: “We have no evidence that the Russian state intends to suborn Russian commercial products and services to cause damage to UK interests, but the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Earlier this month, Italy announced a warning to replace any Russian-related software or hardware that could pose a severe threat by cyber attacks. The UK said it would be donating bomb disposal kits to Ukraine on the same day. The kit includes first-aid packages and equipment for neutralizing explosive devices. 

Finland
On 29 March, the government of Finland said it was preparing for a campaign of disinformation that is speculated to be launched by Russia. This disinformation campaign would supposedly influence the country’s debate over joining NATO. Recently, the people of Finland have been more supportive of their country joining NATO since Russia attacked Ukraine. Finland’s Security and Intelligence Service Director Antti Pelttari said: “Public authorities must secure the conditions for a full and frank debate without intimidation, and ensure that outsiders are unable to influence security policy decisions made by Finland.”

Europe expelling diplomats
On 29 March, BBC reported on European countries expelling Russian diplomats from their respective countries. The list included Belgium, Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, and North Macedonia, which expelled diplomats, officials, and other representatives from their countries. 

Poland
On 29 March, Poland’s government said it had approved a bill that would ban the country from importing Russian coal. The EU has been pushing its members to impose an embargo on purchasing Russian energy. Poland’s Spokesperson Piotr Muller further discussed how the country is the EU’s largest coal producer, but a few of its heating plants depend on Russian coal. 

The EU
On 29 March, the EU was working towards setting up centres on its borders to Ukraine to receive and distribute refugees that were escaping the war. These centres would provide the needed healthcare to member states treating the refugees. EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said: “We are working closely with the Member States and (the World Health Organization’s Europe office) to set up triage hubs directly at the border for patients in the most affected Member States to speed up the transfers.” Kyriakides mentioned that almost 4 million Ukrainians had fled their homeland and had moved toward Western Europe. 

Peace talks in Istanbul 
On 29 March, the delegates of Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul as Turkey called for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: “As members of the delegations, you have taken on a historic responsibility. The whole world is awaiting the good news that will come from you.” Erdogan further mentioned how there was a possibility of solving if both the parties put an end to the tragedy. The meetings are being held in Dolmabahce, at a government building on the shores of the Bosporus strait. 

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war 

Impact on the space industry 
On 29 March, a report by Al Jazeera mentioned how the war in Ukraine could impact private and state investments due to the war. Due to the war, many launches and other programs have remained grounded. However, the report argues that this would de-link the East and West and increase investments to work without Russia’s supply chains or investments. Nevertheless, this would impact the space industry as Russia provided cheaper, ready-made launching services. 

Japan
On 29 March, Japan said it would ban Russian-bound exports of luxury cars, and goods in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The ban would be implemented from 5 April; this would affect Japan, as well as automobiles, which account for half of its exports to Russia. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said the list would: “…span 19 categories, from cars worth more than 6 million yen ($48,630) to jewellery, watches, cosmetics, liquor and art priced at more than 40,000 yen19 categories, from cars worth more than 6 million yen ($48,630) to jewellery, watches, cosmetics, liquor and art priced at more than 40,000 yen.”

Singapore
On 29 March, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong met with US President Joe Biden and discussed the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Indo-Pacific. Biden mentioned how Singapore had been actively voicing its concern about the war and had imposed sanctions on Russia. He said: “We are very happy with what Singapore has done, and I think that the key is going to be to continue looking for ways in which we can expand our cooperation on this and other issues.”

UAE
On 29 March, Dubai’s state carrier, Emirates, stated that it would continue its flights to Russia until its owners stopped it. Emirates President Tim Clark said: “We carry humanitarian goods in our holds. We’ve got NGOs travelling in and out of Russia. We’ve got the diplomatic community going in and out of Russia...so all we’re doing is being an enabler, facilitator, without taking a political position on this for the time being.” Clark mentioned how the sanctions did not impact the Emirates as the sanctions did not apply in the East as they did in the West. 

The UN
On 29 March, the head of the UN atomic watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said he was in Ukraine to monitor the safety and security of nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Grossi would meet senior government officials and travel to one of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Grossi said: “Just crossed the border into Ukraine to start IAEA’s mission…We must act now to help prevent the danger of a nuclear accident.” He further mentioned that the IAEA planned to ship critical safety and security supplies to Ukraine to avert a nuclear accident. He also talked about how the war-induced unprecedented danger to nuclear power plants and other facilities with radioactive materials. 

Asian and European markets
On 29 March, equities rose in Asia and Europe, bringing hope as Russia and Ukraine negotiators met in Istanbul for talks. Traders moved towards stocks as diplomats moved to discussions. The focus was now on the outcome of the meeting and even on Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he urged the two sides to “put an end to this tragedy.” As reported by BBC: “The CAC40 in Paris and the Dax in Frankfurt were both up more than 3% at 12:44 GMT, and London’s FTSE100 index is up by 1.34%.”

Red Cross
On 29 March, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) condemned the violence inflicted on civilians due to the ongoing war. The Red Cross called for an end to the “abhorrent and unacceptable” levels of violence. On the other hand, ICRC was being accused of maintaining communications with both sides and facilitating evacuations. ICRC Spokesperson Ewan Watson said: “We are seeing deliberate, targeted attacks using false narratives, and disseminating this information to discredit the ICRC.’ 

References: 
Ukraine president tells Danish parliament Russia sanctions must be tightened,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
Center of Mariupol is under full control of DPR forces, DPR’s Information Ministry says,” TASS, 29 March 2022
LPR reveals how many Donbass towns have been liberated since February 24,” TASS, 29 March 2022
Number of arrivals in Russia from Ukraine and Donbass rises to almost 490,000, TASS, 29 March 2022
Disinformation endangering Red Cross work in Ukraine: ICRC,” France24, 29 March 2022
Asian, European markets rise as ceasefire talks begin,” The Manila Times, 29 March 2022 
UN atomic watchdog chief in Ukraine to discuss nuclear safety amid Russia’s invasion,” The Times of Israel, 29 March 2022 
Emirates will continue flying to Russia until told not to by owners, president says,” Reuters, 29 March 2022 
Nandita Bose and Alexandra Alper, “Biden discusses Ukraine, Indo-Pacific with Singapore PM,” Reuters, 29 March 2022 
Kantaro Komiya, “Japan to ban Russia-bound exports of luxury cars, goods from 5 April,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
Will the Ukraine war ground the space industry?,” Al Jazeera, 29 March 2022
U.S., German officials to meet this week on LNG, hydrogen supplies,” Eureporter, 29 March 2022 
Russian supply chains next in line for sanctions, deputy U.S. treasury secretary says,” Reuters, 29 March 2022 
EU sets up distribution centres on Ukraine border for refugees needing care,” Reuters, 29 March 2022 
As Ukraine-Russia peace talks kick off in Istanbul, Erdogan urges ‘end to tragedy’,” The Times of Israel, 29 March 2022 
US proposes $6.9 bn in FY 2023 budget for countering Ukraine war,” Business standard, 29 March 2022
Finland must guard against Russia influence in NATO debate, security service says,Reuters, 29 March 2022 
Britain updates guidance on use of Russian computer tech,” Reuters, 29 March 2022 


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Macron faces tough competition as Le Pen gains support
On 29 March, French President Emmanuel Macron said, he plans to relaunch his election campaign this week with walkabouts outside Paris and a large rally in the city. The diplomatic strains from the war in Ukraine hampered his election campaign and have narrowed the poll gap between him and his rival Marine Le Pen. After a successful campaign focused on France's high cost of living, Le Pen is gaining support. The majority of voters trusted Macron to take a lead on the war in Ukraine which initially did seem to secure his position. However, his presidential rivals on the right and left accuse him of avoiding domestic political debate. (Angeline Chrisafis, “Macron kickstarts re-election campaign as Le Pen gains ground,” The Guardian, 29 March 2022)

THE UK
Heatwave parameters increased in certain counties
On 29 March, the Meteorological Office raised the temperature at which a heatwave is to be declared in certain parts of the UK. A heatwave is defined when daily maximum temperatures in a certain location meet or surpass a specified level for three days in a row. In Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, and Cambridgeshire, the temperature is 28 degrees Celsius. In Lincolnshire, it is 27 degrees Celsius and in the East Riding of Yorkshire, it will be 26 degrees Celsius. The prior limits were based on data from 1981 to 2010, whereas the new ones are based on data from 1991 to 2020. The rest of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland still fall under a 25 degrees Celsius threshold. Head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre, Dr Mark McCarthy has raised concerns over frequent heatwaves stating: "As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, heatwaves of similar intensity are projected to become even more frequent, perhaps occurring as regularly as every other year." (Adam Durbin, “Climate change: Heatwave temperature threshold raised in England by Met Office,” BBC, 29 March 2022)

Rishi Sunak defends his spring statements
On 28 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak received backlash from the Treasury Committee for his spring statements announced on 23 March. The Committee Chairman Stride accused Sunak of not increasing the benefits for individuals. Sunak defended his decision by stating that operational issues were present and government borrowings had to be reduced. Labour Member of Parliament Angela Eagle questioned Sunak on benefits payments and the increasing cost of living. She stated that Sunak chose to drive 1.3 million people including half a million children into poverty. (“Universal Credit: Chancellor defends decision not to boost benefits,” BBC, 29 March 2022)

REGIONAL
The EU files a dispute over the UK’s green subsidy
On 28 March, the EU filed its first-ever World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the UK over its green subsidy plan. The European Commission, which supervises trade policy for the EU's 27 members, stated that the UK government adopted parameters favouring its own when giving offshore wind power projects subsidies. The commission alleged that this violates the WTO's key principle that imports must be allowed to compete on an equal basis with domestic products. This also affects the EU’s green energy producers, including numerous SMEs. It further stated that the procedure would raise manufacturing costs and potentially delay the deployment of green energy. (“EU launches first WTO challenge against Britain over green subsidies,” Reuters, 28 March 2022)

 


29 March 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #161

War in Ukraine: Day 33

Barclays bank to be scrutinized by the US regulators; SDP win elections in Saarland; G7 rejects Putin's demand to pay in Rubles

Photo : Eurojust


War in Ukraine: Day 33
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy speaks to Scholz; Zelenskyy’s interview; Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul; Ukrainian MP and Abramovich poisoned? 

Zelenskyy speaks to Scholz
On 28 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz on a call to discuss the progress of the peace talks with Russia. Zelenskyy urged Scholz to continue putting pressure on Russia and intensify their sanctions against Moscow. Scholz after the meeting had mentioned how Moscow was breaking all the rules of the international order, due to which “everyone will suffer for it, especially Russia.” 

Zelenskyy’s interview with Russian media outlets
On 28 March, Zelenskyy was interviewed by “Novaya Gazeta’s Dmitry Muratov, TV Rain’s Tikhon Dzyadko, the author Mikhail Zygar, Meduza’s Ivan Kolpakov and Kommersant’s Vladimir Solovyov.” He put forward the conditions for peace by Kyiv and spoke about the war to let the people of Russia know the reality. Nevertheless, since Russia had implemented a censor ban, not all of them could publish Zelenskyy’s remarks. Also, for its interview with Zelenskyy, Novaya Gazeta received a second warning for violating Russia’s controversial foreign agent’s law and had decided to halt its operations.  

Ukraine-Russia talks to be held in Istanbul 
On 28 March, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was seeking peace without delay and added that he was ready to meet Putin for an in-person meeting. However, Zelenskyy said, "We must come to an agreement with the president of the Russian Federation, and in order to reach an agreement, he needs to get out of there on his own feet ... and come to meet me.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also responded to it by saying: “The meeting is necessary once we have clarity regarding solutions on all key issues.”  

On the same day, Zelenskyy said he was willing to discuss “neutral status” with Putin in Turkey. In a late-night video message, he said: Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are beyond doubt. Adequate security guarantees for our state are mandatory.” He said he was ready to adopt a neutral status and make compromises about the status of the eastern Donbas region. This would further secure a peace agreement with Russia. However, he mentioned that he was not interested in discussing demilitarisation. 

Humanitarian corridors suspended 
On 28 March, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk mentioned that the humanitarian corridors were suspended and cited Russian provocations. Vereshchuk said she had received intelligence reports of escape routes being unsafe for passage. Ukraine has been accusing Russia of sabotaging evacuation corridors in contested areas. However, Moscow blames the same on Kyiv for disagreeing on the safe corridors that Russia had suggested.  

Civilians of Mariupol transferred to Russia
On 28 March, Ukraine accused Moscow of forcibly relocating thousands of civilians from the port city of Mariupol into Russia. Vereshchuk said about 40,000 civilians were moved to Russian-held territory without Ukraine being informed. BBC reported: “Some Ukrainian officials describe Russia’s actions as “deportations” to “filtration camps” - an echo of Russia’s war in Chechnya, when thousands of Chechens were brutally interrogated in makeshift camps and many disappeared.” 

Situation in Chernihiv
On 28 March, the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv was almost entirely encircled by Russian forces. This had led to the city facing a dire situation as it was left without electricity, gas, or running water with tens of thousands of people still trapped. The city is located near Belarus and was the first place to be attacked by the Russian forces who invaded through Belarus. A resident said: “They hit [sites] two times in a row. It is obvious they do it on purpose….Most of the city suburbs are completely destroyed.”  

Ukrainian MP and Abramovich poisoned? 
On 28 March, The Guardian reported that Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and a group of informal Ukrainian negotiators suffered symptoms that hinted at poisoning. This came after there were informal talks held between the two groups. Ukrainian MP Rustem Umerov said: “It was during his first trip to Kyiv. Roman lost his sight for several hours. In Turkey, they were treated in a clinic, together with Rustem.” Experts on the ground concluded that the symptoms were likely the result of poisoning with an undefined chemical weapon.  

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia 

Lavrov on the EU
On 28 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the EU had demonstrated its inability to serve as a guarantor of conflict settlement in the war. He said: "…, just as it was the case in February 2014, when the EU guaranteed a settlement in Ukraine between the [former] president, [Viktor] Yanukovich, and the opposition. The next morning, when the opposition severed that agreement, the EU preferred to keep quiet and then started referring to some democratic processes." Lavrov talked about the situation in Kosovo, where the UN had asked the EU to mandate as a mediator in the conflict. Hwoever, even in 2013, after the EU had to persuade Pristina and Belgrade to sign an agreement, no such communities had been established.  

Talks between Zelenskyy and Putin
On 28 March, Lavrov said that a meeting between the two leaders should happen once the two sides show some progress on critical issues. Nevertheless, he added: "any meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy to exchange views on the conflict right now would be counter-productive."  

Also, on 28 March, Peskov emphasized the importance of face-to-face talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations. However, he said the Kremlin did not see any progress towards it. He added: "For now, we prefer to follow a policy of not disclosing any details of the talks. We believe that otherwise we might harm the negotiating process." 

Peskov on Russia's gas supply
On 28 March, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov talked about the implementation of unfriendly countries paying for their gas supplies in the Rubles. He said: "The supply process is very complicated…both the supplies, the payment, as well as adjustment of balances." Even if Europe refuses to pay, they will not engage in charity. However, he did not disclose the Kremlin's plans and measures if Europe refused to pay Russia for its gas.  

Deutsche Welle on foreign agents list
On 28 March, Russia's Justice Ministry announced that it had put Germany's Deutsche Welle broadcasting company on the country's list of foreign agents. The judgement cited that the broadcasting company performed the functions of a foreign agent. This could likely be in response to Germany's Commission on Licensing and Supervision banning the broadcasting of RT DE TV channels in Berlin. Furthermore, Russia would also withdraw the credentials extended to the staff members of Deutsche Welle's Russian bureau.  

From the Kremlin 
On 28 March, the Kremlin expressed concerns about US President Joe Biden's comments on calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a "butcher." Peskov said: "This is a statement that is certainly alarming….We will continue closely monitoring statements of the US president." Also, on the same day, Russia expelled three Slovakian diplomats in response to Slovakia expelling three Russian embassy staff. Russia has ordered the employees to leave the country within 72 hours.  

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 28 March, US President Joe Biden speech in Poland during his visit on 25 March has triggered criticisms from Russia. He stated in his speech that “Putin cannot remain in power.” The Russians have responded by saying that it was not the right of Biden to decide as Putin was elected by the Russians. As the speech created concerns, Biden denied on asking for a change in regime in Russia.

France
On 28 March, French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in the meeting with policy makers highlighted the need for immediate response from the international community for rampant missile strikes taking place in Ukraine's south-eastern city Mariupol. He said: “Mariupol is a siege war that Russia's been in for a month now. Maybe it wasn't envisaged as a siege war but today we're in siege warfare, and Mariupol is one of the most striking examples.”

Germany
On 28 March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz disclosed the plans of Germany on buying a long-range defense missile system as a preventive measure to Russian attack. He said: “We need to be aware that we have a neighbour who is prepared to use violence to enforce their interests.” Till now Russia has granted tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine, which exceeds NATO’s support.

Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a meeting with Putin, urged for “ceasefire and better humanitarian conditions” to allow evacuation of civilians in Ukraine. He stressed on the peace factor to better the humanitarian situation and assured Turkey’s support in the negotiation process.

Finland
On 28 March, Interior Minister, Krista Mikkonen highlighted the importance to narrow the processes in handling the refugees over Russian invasion. She brought out the issues in time-consuming process of residence permit card and registration of refugees. She urged to discuss the situation on refugees and asked to better the efforts in coordinating the refugees. Mikkonen said: “We’re also ready to re-settle them from other countries to Finland. One of the EU’s ideas is that the re-settlements could be orchestrated by setting up centres where people fleeing Ukraine can receive information about the situation in member states and transport options.”

The UK
On 28 March, the government of the UK appointed a war crimes lawyer, Sir Howard Morrison QC for Ukraine to fight legally over the Russian invasion. Sir Howard had previously served as judge at the International Criminal Tribunal and the International Criminal Court (ICC) for more than 12 years. She said in the House of Commons that she asserts on UK’s approach to hold Putin’s regime responsible in the ICC.

On 28 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported Russia’s advancement in blocking Black Sea coast and keeping Ukraine away from international maritime trade. It also observed that the missiles of Russian navy continue to strike through Ukraine. With Ukraine’s forces holding steadfast in the west, the progress of the Russian troops was seen more in the south.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Protests
On 28 March, people across London, Beirut, Moldova, Washington, and Chile were observed to be protesting using various signboards and Ukraine’s national flower, the sunflower in support of Ukraine and demanding for the war to end.

ICRC
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has raised concern about its inability to send aid to the city of Mariupol. It demanded to Russia and Ukraine to provide a safe passage to reach to people, which has failed. ICRC spokesperson Matt Morris said: “The sides have to be the guarantors and have an agreement to allow safe passage. They have to publicise the route and allow plenty of time for people to get out.”

MNCs
On 28 March, Heineken, a Dutch brewing company announced the end of its businesses in Russia. It had previously stopped its sale, production and new investments. It also said that it will not make a profit through the transfer of ownership and it expects the amount to be around EUR 400 million.

On 28 March, Russian officials seized Swiss timepieces through security service agents under the charge of violating customs rules. The Switzerland government has not confirmed yet, but the cost of the watches are estimated to be GBP 700,000.

The UN
On 28 March, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has asked Humanitarian Chief Martin Griffiths to look into the parties engaged in ceasefire talks in Ukraine. He said: “to allow for progress in serious political negotiations, aimed at reaching a peace agreement.”

G7
The G7 nations including France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and Canada have together denied Russia’s demand to the unfriendly nations to pay for the energy imports in roubles. One of the spokespeople said: “payment in rouble is not acceptable and we will urge the companies affected not to follow Putin's demand.”

References: 
Zelenskyy and Scholz discuss peace talks during call,” Deutsche Welle, 29 March 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events, day 33,” Al Jazeera, 28 March 2022
Samantha Lock and Daniel Boffey, “Zelenskiy says Ukraine willing to discuss neutrality at Russia talks,” The Guardian, 28 March 2022 
Ukraine announces no new humanitarian corridors, fears Russian ‘provocations,” Reuters, 28 March 2022
Zelensky says Ukraine prepared to discuss neutrality in peace talks,” BBC, 28 March 2022 
Andrew Roth, “Will Zelenskiy’s interview with Russian media make a difference in war?,” The Guardian, 28 March 2022
Laurence Peter, “Russia transfers thousands of Mariupol civilians to its territory,” BBC, 28 March 2022
Hugo Bachega & Orysia Khimiak, “In Chernihiv, civilians are trapped as hospitals and schools attacked,” BBC, 28 March 2022
EU shows its inability to serve as guarantor of conflict settlement — Lavrov,” TASS, 28 March 2022
Not engaged in charity’: Russia won’t supply gas to Europe for free, cautions Kremlin,” TASS, 28 March 2022
"Russia adds Deutsche Welle to list of foreign agents,” TASS, 28 March 2022 
Face-to-face Russia-Ukraine talks important, no progress achieved yet — Kremlin spokesman,”TASS, 28 March 2022 
Press review: Donbass eyes referendum to join Russia and why Baku renewed Karabkah gamble,” TASS, 28 March 2022 
Russia expels three Slovakian diplomats, foreign ministry says,” Reuters, 28 March 2022
Putin-Zelenskiy meeting needed once sides closer on key issues, Lavrov says,” Reuters, 28 March 2022 
Kremlin Says Biden's Comments on Putin ‘Alarming’,” The Moscow Times, 28 March 2022 
Shaun Walker and Pjotr Sauer, “Abramovich and Ukrainian MP may have been poisoned this month,” The Guardian, 28 March 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 28 March 2022
Mikkonen: Finland needs more resources to deal with refugees from Ukraine,” Helenski Times, 29 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

THE UK
London to break the impasse over the trading protocol with Northern Ireland 
On 28 March, the UK’s Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Brandon Lewis stated that he would make every effort to reach an agreement with the EU to reform Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading protocols. The UK and the EU have been trying to break the deadlock on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the trading regulations that London agreed to, but now claims are impractical. Lewis said: "Our focus has to be and it rightly is - for myself, the foreign secretary and the prime minister - on resolving these issues by agreement with the EU." He further expressed that the UK Government refuses to use safeguarding measures mentioned in the agreement to solve the issue. (“UK to 'strain every last sinew' to get N.Ireland protocol deal, minister says,” Reuters, 28 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 
European countries freeze assets post-economic crisis in Lebanon 
On 28 March, the EU Agency for Criminal Justice Cooperation (Eurojust) announced that France, Germany and Luxembourg had frozen assets in Lebanon after its investigation. Eurojust stated that the probe involved five anonymous individuals alleged of embezzling public funds amounting to over USD 330 million between 2002 and 2021. Germany seized over EUR 35 million in assets and Luxembourg an estimated EUR 11 million in bank accounts. In Monaco, France confiscated assets worth at least EUR 18.2 million and bank accounts totalling EUR 46 million. On 21 March, Lebanon’s central bank Governor was charged with illegal enrichment and money laundering. The developments come as Lebanon is in a crippling economic crisis primarily caused by corruption and mismanagement of public funds. (“EU countries freeze assets worth $130m in Lebanon probe,” Deutsche Welle, 28 March 2022)

Group of Seven rejects Putin's demand to pay in Rubles
On 28 March, the Group of Seven countries agreed not to comply with Putin's demand to pay for gas and oil in rubles. On 23 March, Putin announced that unfriendly countries need to pay for natural gas only in Rubles and instructed the central bank to lay out the procedures for buyers to acquire rubles. The demand triggered concerns over Russia halting gas supplies to Europe and it also caused a further rise in fuel costs. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated: “the contracts we know lay down the euro as a payment currency and the companies will pay according to the contracts they have signed.”(“G7 rejects Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles,” Euronews, 28 March 2022)

Barclays bank to be scrutinized by the US regulators
On 28 March, the UK bank Barclays risked an estimated USD 592 million loss and regulatory scrutiny for exceeding the US limit on sales of structured products. Barclays' stock dropped four per cent after the bank admitted to overselling billions of pounds worth of securities over a year, exceeding the USD 20.8 billion limit agreed with US regulators. Two exchange-traded notes (ETNs) related to crude oil and market volatility are among the products concerned. On 14 March, Barclays ceased sales and issuance of both the products. The two ETN products had risen in popularity as investors bet on volatility as the Ukraine crisis roiled global markets. As a result, Barclays stated it will postpone its share buyback until the second quarter of 2022. (Iain Withers and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, “Barclays faces $590 million hit, scrutiny over sales slip-up,” Reuters, 29 March 2022)


28 March 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #160

War in Ukraine: Day 31 & 32

Concerns over anti-Islam rhetoric in France; Prince William response to Caribbean criticisms; Canada to displace Russian oil supply

Photo : CSIS Missile Defense Project


War in Ukraine: Day 31 & 32
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
President Zelensky's everyday address and cruise missile strike in Lviv

Zelensky’s comments
On 26 Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukrainian troops had launched powerful attacks on Russia as a push for peace talks. He said: “By restraining Russia's actions, our defenders are leading the Russian leadership to a simple and logical idea: talk is necessary. Meaningful. Urgent. Fair. For the sake of the result, not for the sake of the delay.” 

On 27 March, Zelensky in his daily address demanded the West increase its military supply, stating only one per cent of NATO tanks and aircrafts had been given to Ukraine so far. He said: “What is Nato doing? Is it being run by Russia? What are they waiting for? It's been 31 days. We are only asking for 1% of what Nato has, nothing more.”

Ukraine Military advance
On 26 March, Ukraine Defense Ministry claimed to have killed Russian Lieutenant-General Yakov Rezantsev in a strike near Chornobaivka airbase in Kherson. So far Russia has claimed the death of only one General. 

On 27 March, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence reported on Russia’s plan to split Ukraine into North Korea and South Korea, as it failed in taking over Ukraine. It also disclosed launching guerrilla warfare in the cities occupied by Russia. Ukraine's military intelligence Chief issued a warning on Russia’s efforts to bring the “Korean scenario” and said that Putin’s priority remains the east and south of Ukraine on a larger scale.

Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 26 March, BBC reported on the possibility of attacks on the arc of town surrounding Kyiv. Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel which lies around the capital city, Irpin seems to have been shelled by Russia, with only ruins left. The Russian strategy was observed to be targeting Kyiv to replace Zelensky’s government. Therefore, the city of Irpic has been at the front of Russian attacks and battle troops.

On 26 March, the Governor of the Lviv region, Maksym Kozytskyi reported the injury of five people due to the high-precision Onyx cruise missile strike on a fuel storage facility in Lviv. Apart from these Russian forces were seen to be attacking the nuclear research facility in Kharkiv and the workers at Chernobyl's nuclear power plant were reported to be taken over by the Russians.

Other developments
On 27 March, Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi commented on the country’s export of grain. He said that as the war advanced, the capacity to export grains was worsening day by day. He added: “The impact (on global markets) is direct, dramatic and large. And it continues. Every day the situation will become more and more difficult.”

On 27 March, upon separatist leader in the Luhansk People’s Republic called out for a referendum on allowing Russia to join. Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by saying any such fake referendums conducted in part of Ukraine to be considered “null and void.” It warned that: “Instead, Russia will facе an even stronger international response, further deepening its isolation.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Putin’s new law
On 26 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin passed a law recognising the individuals who took part in special military operations in Ukraine as “Combat veterans.” The law was assumed by the State Duma and accepted by Federation Council. The recognition meant that the participants in the special operation will be put under social protection and will be eligible for additional payments, tax benefits and medical care 

Russian Defense Ministry claims
On 26 March, Russian Defense Ministry declared the end of the first phase of the war as Biden makes his visit to Poland. It said that its aims to destroy Ukraine’s navy, air force and target to capture Kyiv was stalled. Russian officials said that Russia would hence focus its military on “complete liberation” of eastern Ukraine, the Donbas region. General Staff's main operations administration Head, Sergei Rudskoy said: “The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been carried out. The combat capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces have been substantially reduced, which allows us to concentrate our main efforts on achieving the main goal: the liberation of Donbas.”

On 26 March, Russia claimed that 93 per cent of the Donbas region of Luhansk has been brought under the control of a separatists group along with 54 per cent of Donetsk. Russian Defense Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov claimed on the attack on fuel base in Nikolaev region of Ukraine. he said: “The Onyx high-precision cruise missile destroyed a fuel base in the Nikolaev region, used to supply a grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern part of Ukraine with fuel.” Apart from this the Russian forces also claimed on disabling of 117 Ukrainian military facilities, an S-300 missile system, nine warehouses that stored ammunition and “92 stronghold Ukrainian forces units.” 

Other developments
On 26 March, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia might nationalise the property of those registered in the US, the EU and other countries listed as unfriendly. The comments come as Russia reported the arrest of the assets of Russian individuals living abroad. He said: “With arrest of assets of foreigners and foreign companies in Russia based on country principle. And maybe, with nationalization of property of people registered in unfriendly jurisdictions. Like the EU, EU member states and a number of singing-along states of the Anglo-Saxon world that will take part in this.”

On 27 March, Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky through his telegram announced the next round of talks with Ukraine, which has been scheduled to take place in virtual format. He posted: “Another round of talks with Ukraine in the videoconference format was held today. As a result, a decision was made to meet offline on March 29-30.” 

On 27 March, Russia’s regulator of state media warned a Russian media Meduza on an interview with President Zelensky. In the warning, it stated: “an investigation has been started in order to identify the level of responsibility and what response will be taken.” Russia in the previous week passed a new law banning Russian media from casting on the war in Ukraine and imposed an imprisonment charge of 15 years for spreading fake news. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
 
The US
On 27 March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken talked about the US’ strategy and clarified that Washington was not working on a regime change for Russia. His comments clarified President Joe Biden’s statement that Putin “cannot remain in power.” Blinken said: “I think the president, the White House, made the point last night that, quite simply, President Putin cannot be empowered to wage war or engage in aggression against Ukraine or anyone else.” 

On 26 March, Biden and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in central Warsaw. Biden and Austin extended their support to Ukraine and called on the world to prepare for a “long fight ahead.” Biden further stated: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The UK
On 27 March, according to a report by the UK’s Defense Ministry, the Russian forces were encircling the city of Kyiv. The briefing mentioned: “advancing from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south.” The report further discussed the Ukrainian military launching counterattacks to hamper Russian reorganization efforts.  

On the same day, UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss mentioned that the UK would lift sanctions if Russia agreed to a complete cease-fire and withdrew its troops from Ukraine. She stated that Russia was serious about negations, but less progress was made recently and further added: “That’s why... we need to double down on sanctions,”

On 26 March, The UK’s intelligence released a report from the UK’s Defense Ministry, which warned that Russia would continue its use of heavy firepower in urban areas. The report mentioned that this would come “at the cost of further civilian casualties.” The UK announced that it would fund GBP two million in food aid to Ukraine on the same day. Humanitarian adviser to the Foreign Office Alice Hooper said: “The need on the ground in Ukraine is clear, with so many people in encircled areas trapped in basements without access to food or water.”

Germany
On 27 March, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated his support to Ukraine and said that Berlin was doing everything it could for Kyiv. He further mentioned that he was doing everything possible in their power and even supplied weapons to Ukraine. On the same day, Germany sold 5,100 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Germany’s DPA news agency reported: “The weapons are shoulder-launched RGW90 HH “Matador,” manufactured by “Dynamit Nobel Defense.”  

On the same day, Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier appealed for a united and humane stance in the face of Russia’s aggression. At the Berlin Philharmonic concert for Ukraine, he said: “We must not permit [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s hatred to become a hatred dividing peoples and individuals, and it must not be allowed to divide our society either.” 

Turkey
On 27 March, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had spoken to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on call and discussed an immediate cease-fire and a peace agreement. Additionally, he confirmed that Russia and Ukraine would soon meet in Istanbul and continue their negotiations. Later, on the same day, Turkey confirmed that talks between the two countries would happen on 28 March. Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said: “Today, during another round of video negotiations, it was decided to hold the next in-person round of the two delegations in Turkey on March 28-30.”  

Turkey also stated the need to continue talks with Russia, and Turkey’s Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin mentioned that the international community must continue their talk to bring a halt to the war. He further said: “If everybody burns bridges with Russia, then who is going to talk to them at the end of the day...Ukrainians need to be supported by every means possible to defend themselves.” 

France
On 27 March, France’s President Emmanuel Macron warned about a possible verbal escalation after US President Joe Biden called Putin a “Butcher.” Macron said he would never have used those words and distanced himself from Biden’s comments. On the other hand, Macron stressed the need to de-escalate, and he said: “achieving first a cease-fire and then the total withdrawal of [Russian] troops by diplomatic means. If we want to do that, we cannot escalate either in words or actions.”  

On the same day, France’s housing Minister Emmanuelle Wargon mentioned that around 30,000 people fleeing the war had arrived in France. She mentioned that France was prepared to receive around 100,000 people. However, half of them have since traveled to Spain. Additionally, she talked about the French government granting them EU stay permits that would allow the children to enroll in schools and permit them to work in the country. 

Finland 
On 26 March, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto expressed his concerns about his country being targeted by Russia if it applied for NATO membership. Earlier, Finns were not inclined to join NATO. However, since the war broke out, most of them wanted Finland to be a part of NATO. Niinisto said that joining the military alliance would “gain a preventive effect” on Finland.  

Hungary 
On 26 March, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sought to assert his country’s neutrality in the war in Ukraine. Orban said: “The answer to the question of which side Hungary is on is that Hungary is on Hungary’s side.” His comments came as a response to the EU leaders and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeals to Orban to take a clear stance rather than a neutral one. Zelenskyy had stated: “I want to stop here and be honest, once and for all. You have to decide for yourself who you are with.”  

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

The Oscars
On 27 March, at the Academy Awards ceremony held in Los Angeles, many attendees expressed their support for Ukraine by going silent for 30 seconds. Actress Mila Kunis, who was also born in Ukraine at the Oscars, said: “We’d like to have a moment of silence to show our support for the people of Ukraine currently facing invasion, conflict and prejudice within their own borders.” Apart from her attendees also wore blue ribbons that read #WithRefugees to show their solidarity with the refugees that had fled Ukraine since Putin invaded.  

Japan
On 26 March, Japan and the US condemned Russia for its nuclear weapons threat. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said: “the horrors of nuclear weapons must never be repeated.” His comments came as Moscow had mentioned that it would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if Russia were to face an existential threat.  

Human Rights Watch
On 25 March, the Human Rights Watch released a report on the Ukrainian refugees reaching Slovakia. The report mentioned how in comparison to Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, Slovakia’s border and customs police processed and registered Ukrainian refugees faster. The report further stated how Slovak firefighters and soldiers assisted the injured and helped older refugees in wheelchairs to get processed and accommodated. The coordination and the cooperation of the Slovaks on the ground were also highlighted in the report.  

Revival of Coal?
On 25 March, an article by Al Jazeera mentioned how due to the war, the demand for coal had exponentially increased. The global energy market has been gravely impacted because of Russia invading Ukraine and had shadowed last year’s COP26 targets and promises. Climate and Energy Policy Adviser at climate change think-tank Pieter de Pous said: “Countries that were doing this properly, avoiding gas as a bridge fuel option, are in a better situation than those who really were betting on gas to get out of coal.”  

References: 
Ukraine warns Russia is trying to split country in two — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 27 March 2022
Live updates: Support for Ukraine shown at Oscars,” The Associated Press, 28 March 2022 
Ukraine: Russian strikes wound several in Lviv — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 26 March 2022 
Ukraine war: Liz Truss says Russia sanctions should end only after withdrawal,” BBC, 27 March 2022
Helen Livingstone, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 32 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 March 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 31 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 March 2022
Justin Spike, “Hungary’s Orban criticized for ‘neutrality’ in Ukraine war,” The Seattle Times, 26 March 2022
Louis Charbonneau, “Escaping the Bloodshed: Refugees Reach Slovakia After Fleeing Ukraine War,” Human Rights Watch, 26 March 2022
Ruairi Casey, “Will Ukraine war revitalise coal – world’s dirtiest fossil fuel?,” Al Jazeera, 25 March 2022
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 32,” Al Jazeera, 27 March 2022
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 31,” Al Jazeera, 26 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Concerns over anti-Islam rhetoric in election campaigns
On 27 March, the Rector of the Great Mosque of Paris, Chems-Eddine Hafiz, expressed concerns over Anti-Islam rhetoric in election campaigns. Rival candidates of incumbent President Emmanuel Marcon have turned their attention to Islam and immigration. Eric Zemmour, Valérie Pécresse, and Marine Le Pen, the far-right contenders, have been inciting racial hatred, calling to renounce Islamic practices, and frequently referring to the "Great Replacement Theory." They claim that the local French population could be replaced by immigrants, making France a majority Muslim country. Hafiz stated: "For several years now, at every election in France, certain candidates have spoken of the 'problem' of Islam, linking Islam to immigration or terrorism." He is afraid of the possible increase in anti-Islam sentiments post-election. (Angelique Chrisafis, "Anti-Islam rhetoric in French election risks' spiral of hatred', says Paris mosque rector," The Guardian, 24 March 2022)

MALTA
Labour party claims to win national elections
On 27 March, Prime Minister Robert Abela claimed victory in general elections, securing a third consecutive term for the Labour party. If confirmed, Abela would be serving his first electoral mandate after succeeding Joseph Muscat, who stepped down in January 2020 during a government crisis triggered by the death of journalist Daphne Galizia. Abela assures humility by stating: "Humility will characterize this government, I will insist on humility from those chosen to work within it, and I will lead by example." He was credited for sustaining unemployment at a historic low, keeping energy costs constant despite rising global prices, and increasing pensions regularly. (Christopher Scicluna, "Malta's prime minister promises humility as Labour claims election victory," Reuters, 27 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Prince William responds to Caribbean criticisms
On 27 March, Prince William responded to criticisms over his eight-day tour to the Caribbean amid protests for UK's reparations and an apology for slavery. William stated: "I know that this tour has brought into even sharper focus questions about the past and the future. In Belize, Jamaica, and the Bahamas, that future is for the people to decide upon." He further stated that he was committed to serving and supporting the people by using "the platform" with which they are privileged. International media houses have criticized some of his actions during the tour, such as shaking hands with Jamaican children through wire fences and standing on an open-top vehicle to witness a military parade, which resembled Queen Elizabeth back in the 1950s. ("Prince William says he wants to serve after Caribbean criticism," Reuters, 27 March 2022)

Canada to displace Russian oil supply
On 27 March, Canada committed to supplying energy sources to displace Russian oil and gas for European countries. Canada's Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson assured us that they could provide an increased supply of oil, gas, and uranium to stabilize the global energy crisis. They expect to produce an additional 200,000 barrels of oil and 100,000 barrels of natural gas. Wilkinson emphasized the use of nuclear energy and announced the readiness to export uranium. Canada's assurances came after the meeting of the world's energy ministers at the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris held on 24 March. A senior oil analyst at the consultancy Rystad Energy stated that the impact of Canada's extra supplies "will be relatively limited given the regionality of Canadian crude, which will likely stay in the North American market." (Jonathan Josephs, "Canada pledges to help countries stop using Russian oil," BBC, 27 March 2022)


26 March 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #159

War in Ukraine: Day 30

Upcoming elections in France; Spain’s truck driver’s strike; Fridays for Future stage Global protests

Photo : Reuters/Marko Djurica


War in Ukraine: Day 30
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s message; Mariupol; Russian strikes; Prisoners of war exchanged

Zelensky’s message to Russia
On 25 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Russia to negotiate rather than continue with the war. However, he stated that Ukraine would not give up territories to achieve peace. Zelensky’s response was to Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Col Gen Sergei Rudskoi, who mentioned that Russia would now only focus on “the liberation of Donbas.” Zelensky had also claimed that Russia had lost more than 16,000 troops while still unable to take Kyiv or Kharkiv.  

Update on Mariupol 
On 25 March, Mariupol’s Mayor Vadym Boychenko informed about the deteriorating humanitarian situation of the city after Russia besieged it. He said: “The situation is really complicated. It is a humanitarian crisis…Part of the city is occupied by Russian [forces], but our soldiers are still controlling the city, but there is non-stop fighting.” He claimed that Russia had restricted 300 tonnes of humanitarian aid to enter the city, with about 100,000 people trapped in Mariupol.

On the same day, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated that there was a possibility to open a safe corridor to evacuate civilians in private vehicles. On the ground, Ukrainian and Russian officials negotiated corridors to let civilians flee the besieged city. Vereshchuk said: “The city is suffering constant Russian aerial assaults and artillery strikes, making departure - or even going above ground - a death-risk for residents.” 

Russian strike on a medical centre in Kharkiv
On 25 March, Russia struck a medical centre in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. The strike killed four civilians while others were wounded. The local police said: “This morning, following a bombardment on civilian infrastructure from several rocket launchers, seven civilians were injured, four of them died.” The medical center is in the city’s Osnovyansky district. 

135 children killed in the war since the invasion began
On 25 March, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office stated that 135 children were killed while 184 were wounded since the invasion began. Nevertheless, the BBC has not been able to verify these reports independently. On the same day, two children were reported to have been killed in the city of Rubizhne of the Luhansk region in the crossfire. At the same time, two children were injured on 24 March in Novomykhailivka, Donetsk region, by shelling. 

Prisoners of war exchanged at Mangush
On 25 March, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that an exchange of prisoners of war took place in the city of Mangush. Ten captured occupiers were exchanged for 10 Ukrainian service members in the exchange. Vereshchuk said: “We managed to release the drivers and rescuers captured by the occupiers two days ago in Mangush.” Mangush is a settlement in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.  

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
 
Update on casualties
On 25 March, the Russian Defence Ministry gave an update on its military casualties for the second time since the war broke out. Russia claimed that 1,351 of its soldiers were killed and 3,825 were wounded. On the other hand, Ukrainian military sources had estimated that 15,000 soldiers were killed, although the figure might include the injured. In contrast, US intelligence sources suggested that approximately 7,500 soldiers have died. 

Focus on Eastern Ukraine
On 25 March, the chief of the Russian army stated that the military would focus its efforts only on the Donbas region. The comments suggest a possible downgrading of Russia’s war aims for Ukraine as the forces were met with strong resistance in the northern parts. The chief also mentioned how Russia was always considering two options. First is the liberation of the whole of Ukraine. Second, focus on the eastern part of Ukraine, the Donbas region. 

Dmitry Medvedev on Western sanctions
On 25 March, former Russian President and current Deputy Head of Security Council Dmitry Medvedev called the Western sanctions a “foolish” move, thinking it would affect the government. He said: “The sanctions will only consolidate the Russian society and not cause popular discontent with the authorities.” He argued that the sanctions would have favorable effects on Moscow as they would further consolidate Russian society. Medvedev also said: “Let us ask ourselves: can any of these major businessmen have even the tiniest quantum of influence of the position of the country’s leadership?”

Russia denies claims of using phosphorus bombs
On 25 March, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified that Russia had never violated any international conventions. He shunned Zelenskyy for accusing Moscow of using phosphorus bombs. Zelensky had accused Russia on 24 March of using phosphorus bombs against civilians at the G7 summit. However, phosphorus bombs are allowed to be used in open spaces as a tactic to be used as cover for troops but are restricted in heavily populated civilian areas. 

Lavrov’s response to sanctions
On 25 March, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that total war had been declared against Russia. His comments came as a response to the West’s all-out sanctions against the Russian economy. Lavrov said: “Today, a genuine hybrid war, a ‘total war’ has been declared against us. This term, which was exploited by Hitler’s Germany, is now pronounced by many European politicians when talking about what they want to do with Russia.” Lavrov lashed out on the sanctions and stated that these were publicly announced to devastate the Russian economy and the country. 

Putin calls out cancel culture 
On 25 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin mentioned similarities of what was going on under the Nazi Germany of Hitler and what the West was doing to Russia. He said: “The notorious cancel culture has turned into the cancellation of culture. The names of Tchaikovsky, Shostakovich, Rachmaninov are being removed from playbills, Russian writers and their books are being banned.” He said the last time this happened was 90 years ago. He further accused the West of seeking to cancel Russia, its culture, and its people. 

Kremlin on exclusion from the G20
On 25 March, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov talked about the West trying to exclude Russia from the G20. He said: “As for the G20 format, it is important. Nevertheless, on the other hand, in the current conditions, when most of the participants in this format are actually in a state of economic war with us, on their initiative, nothing fatal will happen.” However, he said Russia would still take part in the G20, depending on the opinion of other participants. Nevertheless, he reiterated that even if Russia were not allowed to participate, it would not lead to anything fatal for the country. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 25 March, US President Joe Biden’s visit to Poland, G7, EU and NATO summits in Brussels brought out two-fold aims. One, the showcase of Western unity in the face of war and the prominence of liberal values. Two, strengthening of energy security through gas deals and defence. In the joint statement with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,  Biden remarked: “The United States and the European Union are going to work together to take concrete measures to reduce dependence on natural gas — period — and to maximize the available — the avail- — the availability and use of renewable energy.”

The EU
On 24 March and 25 March, the European Union leaders met to discuss “the new security situation in Europe, sustained high energy prices and Russian aggression against Ukraine.” The European Council also discussed building “robust economic base, coordination efforts in response to COVID-19 pandemic and global health governance.” In his address to the European Parliament plenary session, President Charles Michel highlighted three points: “The first point, we have a weakness in the area of energy, we must immediately take measures to strengthen our resilience and independence in this area and to gradually break out of our dependency, particularly on Russian gas. The second topic is the question of security and peace. As we know, for many years voices have been raised with greater or lesser force in favour of bringing European countries closer together, in order to further develop European defence and security capabilities. The third element, clearly, concerns the robustness of our economic base. If we are able to take measures that affect the regime in Moscow, it is because we are an economic power with 450 million consumers and a strong internal market with unquestionable strengths and assets.”

The UK
On 25 March, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to China’s President Xi Jinping over a call on the Ukraine war. In the call, Johnson stressed the pressure factor that needs to be imposed on Putin to withdraw troops. He also mentioned the implications China would face if found to be supporting Russia. 

On 25 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported through intelligence that Ukraine forces have advanced in taking back the war shelled towns and has taken a defensive position in the east of Kyiv. It also confirmed on the Ukraine forces pushing back the Russian military away from the northwest of Kyiv. 

Hungary
On 25 March, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban rejected the appeal of Zelensky to supply weapons and impose sanctions on Russia. Orban rejected by stating: “against Hungary's interests.” The decision was reasoned by one of the spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs, who said: “Hungary wants to stay out of this war, so it will not allow the transfer of arms and weapons to Ukraine.” Another reason behind the denial was not to risk the minority ethnic group in the west of Ukraine becoming targets of the Russians. 

The Global Fallouts: International implications of the Ukraine war
MNCs
On 25 March, Spotify announced its withdrawal of services from Russia due to new restrictions imposed on media companies. In the statement released it said: “further restricting access to information, eliminating free expression, and criminalising certain types of news puts the safety of Spotify’s employees and possibly even our listeners at risk.” The company had closed its operations in early March and has not been able to sell its premium services in Russia due to international sanctions. The UN
On 25 March, the UN reported that close to 1,081 civilians had been killed and 1,707 had been injured since the start of the war in Ukraine. It also predicts the count to be higher as it faced challenges in collecting information in the war zones. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine’s Head, Matilda Bognor reported on the finding of 200 dead people in the city of Mariupol. According to the Head: “One mass grave we've been able to get satellite information on, and we estimate that one of those mass graves holds about 200 people.” She also pointed out the Russian usage of heavy artillery, rockets and missiles in populated areas of Ukraine accounting for war crimes.

Australia
On 25 March, Australia’s Foreign Minister, Marise Payne announced the sanctions on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his family members for their role in the Ukraine war. The Minister said: “Australia has now sanctioned a total of 32 pro-Kremlin propagandists, reflecting the strategic importance of disinformation in Russia's attempts to legitimise Putin's unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

References:
BBC Live,” BBC, 25 March 2022
Russia gives update on its military casualties,” BBC, 25 March 2022
Russia to focus war on eastern Ukraine - Russian army chief,” BBC, 25 March 2022
Western Sanctions Won't Sway Kremlin, Says Russia's Former President Medvedev,” US News, 25 March 2022 
Russia Denies Breaching International Law with Phosphorus Bombs,” The Moscow Times, 25 March 2022 
Lavrov slams all-out sanctions spree, says West’s values ‘aren’t worth a red cent’,” TASS, 25 March 2022 
Putin lashes out at West ‘cancelling’ Russian culture, says it reeks of Hitler’s Germany,” TASS, 25 March 2022 
Kremlin calls possible exclusion of Russia from G20 "not fatal”,” TASS, 25 March 2022 
Mariupol evacuation corridor planned for today,” BBC, 25 March 2022 
Ukraine says 135 children killed since invasion began,” BBC, 25 March 2022
It will take years to rebuild Mariupol, city's mayor says,” BBC, 25 March 2022
Samantha Lock, Maanvi Singh, Adam Gabbatt, Léonie Chao-Fong and Martin Belam, “Mangush hostages released, Mariupol aid blocked: Ukraine's vice PM,” The Guardian, 25 March 2022
Rebecca Ratcliffe, Sam Levin, Joanna Walters, Jem Bartholomew, Martin Belam and Samantha Lock, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy again has urged Russia to negotiate an end to war, but also asserted that Ukraine would not agree to give up any of its territory to achieve peace,” The Guardian, 25 March 2022
Four killed in Russian strike on medical centre in Kharkiv, say police,” BBC, 25 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE 
Elections: Concerns over low voter turnout
On 25 March, France24 reported an anticipated low turnout rate for the upcoming presidential election. Observers argue on how severe low turnout may be in this election due to the war in Ukraine. Due to which politicians may suffer the most, in a recent poll, only 71 per cent of those questioned intend to vote. In reality, this would imply a percentage of abstention equivalent to the first round of the 2002 presidential election, when 28.4 per cent abstained, setting a new record for the first round of France’s two-round presidential election. In 2017, 22.2 per cent of registered voters did not vote, which was considered a high abstention percentage. Political Analyst Gerard Grunberg believes that the presumptive victory of Macron, does not motivate people to turn up to vote. (“Turnout concerns loom large for French presidential election frontrunners,” France24, 25 March 2022)

SPAIN
Lorry drivers to continue 12-day strike
On 25 March, self-employed truckers resumed strike despite a government aid package. In addition, numerous tractors drove slowly towards Madrid to protest what they called a “brutal increase” in fuel prices and the insufficient farm revenue. As part of the package, the socialist-led government agreed to EUR 0.20 per litre gas reduction for lorries after 12 hours of negotiations. The government also announced that it would grant EUR 450 million in direct financial assistance to road transport companies and special credit terms. The platform for the Defense of the Road Transport Sector, on the other hand, has urged its members to continue their strike and march forward. The group is not associated with any of Spain’s larger national trucking groups or road haulage companies, and it has not engaged in any negotiations with the government. The strike has wreaked havoc on supply systems across Spain, resulting in irregular shortages of fresh produce such as vegetables, milk, and seafood. (“Truckers’ strike to continue in Spain despite government support package,” Euronews, 25 March 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Bittern Birds revive from near extinction
On 25 March, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) reported on the increasing number of birds in the UK after nearly disappearing. Bitterns are wetland birds that hide in reed beds and are members of the heron family. Conservationists can count them during mating by listening for the male’s thunderous “foghorn” call, which may be heard three miles away. In the 1870s, the birds were driven to extinction across the UK. Their extinction was caused by a combination of poaching and the draining of their marsh habitats for cultivation. Nevertheless, they returned in the early twentieth century. In 1997, it was estimated that just 11 males remained, placing them on the verge of extinction for the second time. However, in the last ten years, the systematic restoration and re-creation of wetlands have allowed their numbers to double. (Victoria Gill, “RSPB: Bitterns make booming recovery in UK wetlands,” BBC, 25 March 2022)

Fridays for Future stage Global protests
On 25 March, the activism network staged the global climate movement. Hundreds of protests were anticipated in cities throughout the seven continents, beginning from New Zealand and moving west to the US. Responding to the call, protesters marched under the banner “people not profit.” Protesters in Berlin condemned the government’s decision to ignore its climate goals to develop new liquefied gas shipping facilities for imports rather than developing renewables and reducing energy consumption at home. Germany paying millions of euros to Moscow every day for buying harmful fuels affecting the environment enraged the protestors. A Ukrainian protester said: “The war in Ukraine could stop anytime. The EU and especially Germany just need to stop financing this.” (Fridays for Future protests call for peace and climate justice,” Deutsche Welle, 25 March 2022)

REGIONAL
Serbs in Kosovo protest to vote in Serbia’s election
On 25 March, ethnic Serbs in Kosovo urged the government to allow them to vote in the general election of Serbia. Most of Kosovo’s ethnic Serbs live north of Mitrovica, near Serbia’s border. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo voted in previous Serbian elections under the watchful eye of foreign observers. That did not happen in Serbia’s national referendum on constitutional reforms, which prohibited ethnic Serbs from voting on Kosovan soil. The United States and other EU countries recognized Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008. (“Kosovo Serb protest calls for voting rights in Serbia’s election,” Euronews, 25 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The US to increase energy supply to the EU post the gas deal
On 25 March, US President Joe Biden and European commission President Ursula upon signing of the gas bill agreed on importing Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from the US. This is an attempt to reduce reliance on Russian energy in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Biden stated, “I know that eliminating Russian gas will have costs for Europe, but it’s not only the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, but it’s also going to put us on a much stronger strategic footing.” The ultimate goal is for the US and foreign allies to provide the EU with around 50 billion cubic meters per year. By reducing reliance on Russia, more renewable energy will be generated and improved energy efficiency. (“EU signs US gas deal to curb reliance on Russia,” BBC, 25 March 2022)


25 March 2022, Friday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #158

War in Ukraine: Day 29

G7 meets in Brussels; EU unveils new Digital Market Act; Stringent border measures implemented with Ireland;

Photo : NATO Pool/Anadolu Agency


War in Ukraine: Day 29
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in G7 Summit and Ukraine’s claim on destroying Russian navy ship

Zelensky’s address
On 24 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his virtual address in the G7 Summit urged the members of NATO to not look down on Ukraine’s Army with that of NATO standards. He also accused Russia of the use of phosphorus bombs, as children were reportedly dying.  Zelensky reiterated the demand for a supply of powerful anti-aircraft defences. Mentioning Russia’s capacity of military arsenal, he complained about not being supplied with a single plane. The most important demand of Zelensky was unlimited military aid from NATO to protect the country from the Russian attacks.

Ukraine Military advance
On 24 March, the Ukraine military claimed to have destroyed a Russian Navy ship called the Orsk near the port city of Berdyansk. As per the report of the Ukrainian Navy, “The Orsk large landing ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the occupiers has been destroyed in the port of Berdyansk captured by Russia.” There was no confirmation from the Russian Defence Ministry. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar reported on the same that the military had attacked a “huge target,” the ship which was capable of holding 45 armoured vehicles, 20 tanks and 400 troops. Apart from this, the Ukraine military claimed on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the city to the Ukraine border.  

Weapons and technology
On 24 March, Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation began using “facial recognition” software to track down the dead Russian soldiers. The technology was provided to Ukraine by Clearview which is based in New York. Which Ukraine using an online portal, has identified 14,000 Russian troops to have died.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

On 24 March, Russia Foreign Ministry in response to the NATO summit said that the West’s decision to continue support to Ukraine reflected its want to continue the war. It criticised the West by saying that it was “reaping a terrible harvest,” by arming Ukraine.

On 24 March, Russia Defence Ministry claimed to have got the city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region under control. It said: “The Russian armed forces continue to carry out the missions of a special military operation. By the morning of 24 March, units of the Russian army had taken full control of the town of Izyum in the Kharkiv region.” The city of Izyum is considered one of the important routes to the eastern Donbas region along with a link to north-east and south-east, which has become the recent target of the Russian troops.

On 24 March, Russia announced to expel US diplomats as a counter move to US move to eliminate 12 Russian diplomats. The US State Department confirmed on receiving the list of diplomats of “Persona non grata,” from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 24 March, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan talked about a unified response to countries that would try helping Russia to evade Western sanctions. Sullivan said: “That’s not specifically about China, but it will apply to every significant economy and the decisions that any of those economies take to try, in an intentional and active way, to undermine or weaken the sanctions that we put in place.” He further added that since the US had conveyed this to China, the EU should do the same with individual countries within Europe.

On the same day, the White House released official statements from US President Joe Biden’s speech at the NATO headquarters in Brussels. He highlighted his objective of visiting the summit and highlighted them as three key points. It was first, supporting Ukraine with military and humanitarian assistance. Second, imposing sanctions to cripple Putin’s economy. Third, fortify NATO’s eastern flank. He further added that the US would “…invest $320 million to bolster democratic resilience and defend human rights in Ukraine and neighbouring countries.”

Also, at the summit, Biden said that the US was ready to accommodate 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. This comes as 3.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country into neighbouring regions. He also said: “I’m announcing that the United States has prepared to commit more than USD one billion in humanitarian assistance to help get relief to millions of Ukrainians affected by the war in Ukraine.”

The UK
On 24 March, at the G7 meeting, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced an increase in lethal aid to Ukraine. The government said it would send 6,000 missiles and provide GBP 25 million in funding for Ukraine’s armed forces. Johnson said: “This is just the beginning.We must support a free and democratic Ukraine in the long term. This is a fellow European democracy, fighting a war of national defence.” 

On the same day, the UK also announced another 59 sanctions against Russian banks, industries, and the stepdaughter of Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The latest sanctions imposed were also against Belarusian entities and other companies like Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank, Sovcomflot, a state-run shipping firm; Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond producer; and Wagner Group, a private military contractor.

Lithuania
On 24 March, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda talked about the EU imposing further sanctions on Russia. Nevertheless, he mentioned how the sanctions’ implications would take time; he said: “the consequences come after a certain time lag.” However, he said there was scope for further sanctions. His comments came as he arrived in Brussels for the NATO summit.  

G7, NATO, and EU meetings
On 24 March, NATO, the G7, and the EU plan meetings as US President Joe Biden visits Europe. This would be the first visit by a US President to an EU summit in Brussels. His visit is not only a symbolic one but to show the US’ support for Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also joined the summits virtually. 

On 24 March, NATO said it would increase its forces deployed on the eastern flank. NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg added: “…agree to strengthen Nato’s posture in all domains, with major increases in the eastern part of the alliance. On land, in the air, and at sea…There is a new sense of urgency because we cannot take peace for granted.” Stoltenberg stated these at a news conference on the eve of the emergency summit. He further stated that if Russia used biological or chemical weapons, it would have consequences as NATO was ready to protect its allies against them.  

On the same day, Stoltenberg stated that he would be extending his term for another year due to the war in Ukraine. His term was set to expire on 01 October 2022 and was due to take up the post of Norway’s central bank governor. Stoltenberg said: “Honoured by the decision of #NATO Heads of State and Government to extend my term as Secretary-General until 30 September 2023.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Haiti
On 23 March, the World Food Program (WFP) warned of a hunger crisis in Haiti as the war continued in Ukraine, leading to a rise in prices for imported wheat. A recent food assessment by the UN stated: “in Haiti finds 45 per cent of the population, or 4.5 million people, are facing acute hunger, with 1.5 million in need of emergency assistance.” The WFP has further attributed this to the rising issues of political instability, growing inflation, and recurrent disasters.

India
On 24 March, the Indian government clarified that it had friendly relations with the US and Russia. However, India had grown closer to the US amid the tensions with China, while Russia continues to be its biggest arms supplier. Concerning the war in Ukraine, Junior foreign minister Meenakshi Lekhi addressed the parliament, saying: “India has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue with respect to the conflict in Ukraine.” India’s clarification on its position came as US President Joe Biden had called India’s stance “somewhat shaky.”

Japan
On 24 March, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki raised concerns at a parliament session regarding its energy payments to Russia in Roubles. This comes as Russia announced that it would require its energy payments in Rouble from “unfriendly” countries. Suzuki said: “Currently, we’re looking into the situation with relevant ministries as we don’t quite understand what is (Russia’s) intention and how they would do this.” Japan was added to the unfriendly country list since it had revoked Russia’s most-favoured-nation trade status, banned certain goods, and froze assets in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kenya
On 24 March, an analysis in the Business Daily cited the impact of the war in Ukraine and its far-reaching implications on Africa’s economy, especially on Kenya. Kenya’s fuel prices have gone up by Sh5 a litre, which has resulted in inflation of critical sectors such as transportation and agriculture. However, the analysis suggested that Kenya could use this as an opportunity to secure its food security by investing more in locally produced wheat and sunflower.

UAE
On 24 March, an article by Al Jazeera talked about how the Ukraine war had given the opportunity for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to visit the UAE. Russia had been playing a crucial role in getting the Gulf Arab monarchies to come in terms with the Syrian regime. The efforts by the UAE and Syria, with the Kremlin being a part, have made the US uncomfortable especially due to the ongoing war.

Asian shares struggle
On 24 March, the Asian shares experienced high volatility with oil prices going lower due to the war in Ukraine and the comments from US Federal Reserve officials. An analyst at IG market Kyle Rodda said: “It is still a relatively volatile market, (which) suggests that these ripping moves in stocks ought to be treated with caution.” However, finance company MSCI recouped some of its earlier losses, while Chinese stocks faced decline. At the same time, as cited by Reuters: “Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 per cent while the mainland’s blue-chip index slid 0.6 per cent.” On the other hand, Japan was able to reverse the losses to a gain of 0.25 per cent.

Red Cross
On 23 March, the Red Cross Society released a report on the “Devastation in Ukraine: How the Red Cross is Helping.” President of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Francesco Rocca said: “The devastating reality of Ukraine is that the needs are growing every day. Amidst increased violence and a disrupted supply chain, delivering essential goods in many parts of the country is getting harder — not easier.” The report further mentioned the current impact of the war and how Red Cross teams were working with the people impacted by conflict. They also stated plans to work on rehabilitation, reunite families, and create awareness about areas contaminated by unexploded ordnance.

References: 

BBC Live,” BBC, 24 March 2022
Ukraine Says Destroyed Russian Naval Vessel in Azov Sea,” The Moscow Times, 24 March 2022
Ukraine Demands Unlimited NATO Aid Against Russia's Month-Old War,” The Moscow Times, 24 March 2022
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council,” Kremline.au, 24 March 2022
US pressures G20 on Russia, but number of states retain independent positions — Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022
Over 1,200 residents of DPR, LPR, Ukraine granted temporary asylum in Russia in past month,” TASS, 23 March 2022
Moscow vows to hit back at Warsaw, if Poland expels Russian diplomats, warns Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022 
Special operation in Ukraine proceeds according to plan, says Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022 
Russian Stock Market to Reopen Thursday After Unprecedented Pause,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022 
"Putin Aide Chubais Quits Kremlin, Leaves Russia,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022 
Daphné Benoit, “Russia Turns to Attrition One Month Into Ukraine War,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022
Russian Stock Market to Reopen Thursday After Unprecedented Pause,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022
Russia says sending international peacekeepers to Ukraine would be 'very reckless’,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
"Russia moves to expel U.S. diplomats in tit-for-tat move,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
"Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges global protests against Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 23 March 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 28,” Al Jazeera, 23 March 2022
Battleground Ukraine: Day 28 of Russia's invasion,” France24, 23 March 2022
Luhansk Governor says local ceasefire agreed to evacuate civillians,” The Guardian, 23 March 2022
Nine humanitarian corridors agreed for Wednesday – Ukraine's deputy PM,” Reuters, 23 March 2022 
Daniel Boffery, “Chernihiv rations drinking water as Russia accused of taking city hostageThe Guardian, 23 March 2022
Zelenskyy slams UN over failure on Ukraine in Japan address,” Al Jazeera, 24 March 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 23 March 2022

Egypt requests IMF support as economy buffeted by Ukraine spillover,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
Japan unsure how Russia will execute rouble payments for energy sold to 'unfriendly' nations,” Reuters, 23 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

GERMANY
Finance Minister initiates temporary measures to address high fuel cost 
On 24 March, the German government agreed on proposals to initiate temporary measures to ease the high fuel prices. The provisions include a EUR 300 one-time energy tax relief payment, a three-month decrease in the fuel tax, and a three-month decrease in the cost of monthly public transportation tickets. The tax on gasoline will be decreased by 30 cents per litre, while the tax on diesel will be reduced by 14 cents per litre. The funds will also be sent to regional public transportation organizations so that the states can coordinate the monthly ticket subsidies. Finance Minister Christian Lindner, on the implementation of measures, said: “This should show the people of this country that we can be trusted to act in this crisis.” (“Germany unveils measures to tackle high energy prices,” Deutsche Welle, 24 March 2022)

THE UK
Stringent border measures implemented with Ireland
On 24 March, the UK government implemented a rule requiring non-Irish EU residents to apply for authorization to travel between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This reform is part of the Nationality and Borders Bill, voted by a majority of 298 Members of Parliament on 22 March. Non-Irish EU citizens will be required to apply for an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) before entering the UK from the EU and Ireland. However, the ETA will limit Common Travel Area (CTA), a long-standing agreement between the United Kingdom and Ireland that predates EU membership. Citizens of the UK and Ireland can freely travel between the two nations and reside in any jurisdiction under the CTA. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney felt that this decision is contrary to the principles that the two governments had agreed upon for years. The agreement stated to protect free movement on the island for everyone. (Nichola Daunton, “EU citizens could face tougher border measures in Ireland after UK vote,” Euronews, 24 March 2022)

REGIONAL
EU unveils new landmark rules in Digital Market Act
On 24 March, the EU Parliament and Council agreed on new reforms to limit big techs. The new Digital Markets Act (DMA) aims to limit the influence of the major tech companies to allow smaller businesses to compete with them. The DMA requires that digital companies make their messaging systems interoperable and provide business users access to their data. The rules forbid corporations from promoting their own services and blocking consumers from uninstalling pre-installed software or apps. The new obligations will apply to companies termed “gatekeepers” - a category defined by the legislation as firms with a market capitalization of at least EUR 75 billion with 45 million monthly users. Tech giants like Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are included in this category. (Foo Yun Chee, “US tech giants face tough new rules as EU countries, lawmakers clinch deal,” Reuters, 25 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Group of Seven to talk on deterrence of Russia's actions
On 24 March, the Group of Seven (G7) summoned an emergency meeting at Brussels to discuss further actions against Russia. BBC examined the relevance of the G7 countries amid the Ukraine War. The ministers and officials often met throughout the year to make agreements and issue unified comments on world issues. The G7 countries have already imposed the most comprehensive sanctions on Russia. They have cut the country off from international trade and the global financial system and froze the assets of the country’s wealthiest citizens. While, the US has banned all Russian oil and gas imports, the UK plans to phase out Moscow’s oil by the end of 2022. Ukraine’s leaders want the rest of the G7 to follow suit. (“G7: What is the G7 and what is it doing about Ukraine?,” BBC, 24 March 2022)

Concerns over North America’s Arctic, amid war in Ukraine
On 25 March, the BBC examined North America’s Arctic vulnerability to Russia. Despite its remoteness and limited population, North America’s huge area is greater than Europe. Due to its vast area, it is attracting the attention of governments and security experts. They warn that North America’s Arctic may be susceptible when tensions are high following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the event of a confrontation, Russian missiles would have to cross the Arctic to hit targets in southern Canada or the US. However, an Arctic expert at the University of British Columbia, Michael Byers, believes Russia is unlikely to consider any invasion or escalation along the frigid border with Canada. While it already faces tensions with Scandinavian countries. (Bernd Debusmann Jr, “Is North America’s Arctic vulnerable to Russia?,” BBC, 25 March 2022)

 


24 March 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #157

War in Ukraine: Day 28

Biden’s concerns on Russian cyberattacks; Italy's PM Mario addresses parliament; UK cabinet disagrees over planning Laws

Photo : Reuters/Al Drago


War in Ukraine: Day 28
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in Japanese Parliament; call for protests; humanitarian corridors
Zelensky calls for global protests
On 23 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky urged people worldwide to organise protests against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He added: “Come with Ukrainian symbols to support Ukraine, to support freedom, to support life…Come to your squares, to your streets, make yourselves visible and heard.” His call came as an action to mark one month since Russia invaded Ukraine. He reached out to the global citizens through a virtual video address.

On the same evening, he mentioned the broader implications of Russia’s war. He related Russia's invasion as a war not only against Ukraine but a war against freedom. He further stated that this was only the beginning for Russia to invade Ukrainian lands. He added: “Russia is trying to defeat the freedom of all people in Europe. Of all the people in the world. It tries to show that only crude and cruel force matters.”

Also, on 23 March, Zelensky addressed Japanese Parliament virtually and criticized the UN. He said: “Neither the United Nations nor the UN Security Council have functioned. Reforms are needed.” He further praised Japan for being the first Asian country to pressure Russia. Japan followed the steps of the Western allies and imposed tough sanctions on Russian institutions after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Zelensky further spoke about the Russian attacks on the Chernobyl site and related it to Japan’s 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster to warn about his country's dangers. 

Nine humanitarian corridors
On 23 March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said an agreement had been reached to evacuate civilians trapped in towns and cities. However, Russia and Ukraine have not reached an agreement to establish a corridor in Mariupol. Vereshchuk said the people who could leave the port city of Mariupol would find transport near Berdyansk. 

On the same day, Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai stated that a local ceasefire was agreed to evacuate citizens. The ceasefire would come into force on 24 March at 0900 am local time, 0700 GMT.

Russia’s campaign in the east, north, west, and centre
On 23 March, an article by France24 stated that on Day 28 of the Ukraine war, Russia’s campaign was stalled, and Ukrainian forces were also able to launch counter-attacks in places. Russia did encircle the city of Kharkiv, which was earlier heavily bombed. Capturing the city  would give them a strategic advantage in the east. 

In the north, Russia reinforced its positions around the capital of Kyiv. However, Ukrainian forces had also launched counter-attacks in the city’s outskirts. In the south, Russia has continued to siege the port city of Mariupol. Zelensky called for a humanitarian corridors, as he claimed nearly 100,000 people were stuck in Mariupol living in inhumane conditions. Not much movement has occurred in the west and centre since last week’s deadly airstrikes. 

Chernihiv besieged
On 23 March, Ukraine forces claimed that Russian forces had taken the city and the people of Chernihiv hostage. Local authorities have imposed rationing of drinking water for the civilians. As reported by The Guardian: “About 150,000 people are stuck in the northern city with little hope of aid after Russia cut them off from the capital, Kyiv, 100 miles south, by bombing a road bridge across the Desna River.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia 

Tit for Tat, US diplomats in Moscow, expelled
On 23 March, Russia served the US embassy in Moscow an official declaration that mentioned a list of diplomats as "persona non grata." Moscow's steps came as Washington had expelled 12 Russian diplomats from the country's UN mission in New York. A US State Department spokesperson said: "We can confirm that the US Embassy received a list of diplomats declared 'persona non grata' from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 23 March."

Russian stock market reopens
On 23 March, the Russian Central Bank announced that the country's stock market would resume trading by 24 March. The Moscow Exchange had been closed since 25 February following Russia's invasion. This was the longest time the exchange had remained closed since the fall of the Soviet Union. As reported by The Moscow Times: "The trading day will be shortened to just over four hours, with deals starting at 9:50 a.m. Moscow time and closing at 2 p.m. Short selling will also be banned, the regulator announced, in an attempt to limit speculative bids that could send the market into freefall."

Peskov's response to US' pressure on G20 
On 23 March, Kremlin's Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned the US' pressure on the G20 countries. He said: "As for G20, it is a multilateral format, different opinions exist there. It is clear that the Americans will continue pressing various states, but, as we see, a number of states prefer to adhere to their own independent, sovereign point of view." He further accused the US of exerting blatant and undiplomatic pressure on all states of the G20. His response came as earlier the US National Advisor Jake Sullivan talked about the possibility of excluding Russia from the G20. 

Residents of DPR and LPR granted asylum in Russia
On 23 March, TASS reported about the citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk (DPR and LPR). They arrived in Russia last month and were granted temporary asylum. TASS stated: "Between 18 February and 16 March, 2022, a total of 1,515 residents of DPR, LPR, and Ukraine filed requests for temporary asylum on the territory of the Russian Federation." However, out of the total number of residents, about 1204 were granted asylum.

Moscow's response to Warsaw
On 23 March, Moscow said it would react to Warsaw's actions if it expelled Russian diplomats from Poland. The Kremlin's Press Secretary said: "We saw and heard such media reports (about the possible expulsion of Russian diplomats from Poland - TASS). If these reports turn out to be true, then this is a continuing freefall, as they say, in all fields of our relations." This comes as a Polish web portal referring to government sources that said that the authorities had decided to expel 40 Russian diplomats. 

On the same day, Russia condemned Poland's suggestion of sending international peacekeepers into Ukraine. Peskov said: "It would be a very reckless and extremely dangerous decision." Russia's response came as Poland said it would formally submit a proposal for an international peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the NATO summit. Peskov further warned that this could lead to a direct confrontation between Russian and NATO forces. 

Clarifying the proceeds of the special operation in Ukraine
On 23 March, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Russia's special military operations were going as planned. He stated: "It [the special operation] is going on strictly in accordance with the plans and with purposes that were established beforehand." However, Peskov added that the operation was a serious one and mentioned that the operation's goals have not been achieved yet, and therefore would continue.  

Chubais Quits Kremlin
On 23 March, Kremlin's Climate Envoy Anatoly Chubais left Russia after quitting his position. He was opposed to Russia's operations in Ukraine. Chubais had been pushing for Russia to adopt more green policies. He played a crucial role in the 1990s and was an integral part of Russia's privatisation drive and transition to a market economy. Chubais is said to have moved to Turkey and had no plans of returning to Russia. 

Russia uses Attrition 
On 23 March, a report by The Moscow Times stated how "Russia's forces in Ukraine appear to be turning to a war of attrition with devastating effect on civilians." This comes as the Russians were not able to swiftly gain a victory in Ukraine as President Vladimir Putin had earlier planned. The Russian army has now resorted to siege warfare to demoralise the Ukrainian population.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 23 March, US Pentagon issued a statement on proceedings of Ukrainian authorities on the ground against Russia. A spokesperson from the US Defense Department said to the reporters that Ukraine forces were “very smartly, very nimbly, very creatively,” countering Russia in various parts of Ukraine. He stated: “The Ukrainians are putting up a very stiff defence... the Russians have not achieved any of the strategic objectives that they set out to - or certainly not without loss.

On 23 March, Reuters reported the plan of the US and other Western countries on excluding Russia from the G20. Previously Russia upon the annexation of Crimea was excluded from G7. A similar move in the G20 forum would impact the economy further and result in adding more economic sanctions on Russia.

On the question of ruling out the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied agreeing. Peskov stated that, under “existential threat,” Russia may use such arms. The response was condemned by the US Pentagon. It also triggered criticism from US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He said: “I don’t see how you can see it any other way but as dangerous when Russia is looking for a possible excuse for the use of low-yield nuclear weapons.”

Poland
On 23 March, Poland announced to expel 45 Russian diplomats who were alleged to be spying. One amongst were found to have worked in the archive of Warsaw’s civil records office, was arrested to be put in custody for three months. In response, Russia’s Ambassador to Poland denied any such accusations of the Polish Foreign Ministry.

NATO
On 23 March, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg before the meeting with Western leaders in Brussels warned that it must ensure to not let the war escalate further. He confirmed China’s role in providing political support to Russia and affirmed to address. Apart from the warning, Stoltenberg announced the deployment of four new NATO battlegroups in eastern Europe in Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

The UK
On 23 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported on the movement of Russian troops. It found that the forces were moving from the north into south further from Kharkiv and Mariupol. On the same day, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that people from northeast of Hertfordshire were coming together to provide support and help the refugee families escaping from Ukraine. Johnson also thanked all the people involved in the refugee schemes. The first scheme is the “Family visa scheme,” where Ukrainians who have extended family residing in the UK will be granted the status to remain or settle on proving the permanent residence proof. The other scheme “Homes for Ukraine,” allows people in the UK to host Ukrainians for at least six months.

Germany
On 23 March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pointed out the failure in the advancement of Russian troops and criticised that despite Russia’s destructions of civilian buildings, there was a lack in the offensive. He further asked Russia to stop the war and urged to “find a diplomatic solution.” On the sanctions, he said: “We are constantly tightening the sanctions, but [the measures] should not hurt European states harder than the Russian leadership.” Scholz also warned on how the sanctions are not just affecting Russia but also pushing Europe and Germany’s economy into recession.

The Global Fallouts: International implications of the Ukraine war
MNCs
On 23 March, Elon Musk’s Starlink reported to have sent its dishes to Ukraine for internet support. SpaceX President said that the kits sent to Ukraine were massively funded by private sources and will be plotted in the southern port of Odesa. Apart from this, the Swiss good company, Nestle announced its withdrawal of brands such as KitKat and Nesquik from Russia. The decision comes after the criticism received from Zelensky for continuing its business in Russia.

Japan
On 23 March, Japan's Prime Minister expressed concern about Russia’s demand for rouble payments for the energy sold to “unfriendly nations.” Japan accounts for 4.1 per cent of Russian crude oil export and 7.2 per cent in gas export. Russia listed Japan as unfriendly with the US, the EU and other countries to counter the export ban and freezing of assets by Japan. Japan’s Prime Minister announced his plans to disclose further sanction on Russia in the upcoming G7 meet.

Egypt
On 23 March, Egypt requested IMF to support through its comprehensive economic programme. As Egypt’s economy is under stress due to the exit of foreign investors out of fear of repercussions of a Russian invasion. The government of Egypt allowed the depreciation of its currency by 14 per cent after November 2020. The IMF appreciated the efforts of the authorities on “recent actions to expand targeted social protection.” So far, Egypt has reached to IMF thrice in the last few years for billions of loans, with the implication of war on the economy it is expected to only worsen.

References: 

US pressures G20 on Russia, but number of states retain independent positions — Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022
Over 1,200 residents of DPR, LPR, Ukraine granted temporary asylum in Russia in past month,” TASS, 23 March 2022
Moscow vows to hit back at Warsaw, if Poland expels Russian diplomats, warns Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022 
Special operation in Ukraine proceeds according to plan, says Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022 
Russian Stock Market to Reopen Thursday After Unprecedented Pause,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022 
"Putin Aide Chubais Quits Kremlin, Leaves Russia,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022 
Daphné Benoit, “Russia Turns to Attrition One Month Into Ukraine War,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022
Russian Stock Market to Reopen Thursday After Unprecedented Pause,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022
Russia says sending international peacekeepers to Ukraine would be 'very reckless’,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
"Russia moves to expel U.S. diplomats in tit-for-tat move,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
"Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges global protests against Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 23 March 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 28,” Al Jazeera, 23 March 2022
Battleground Ukraine: Day 28 of Russia's invasion,France24, 23 March 2022
Luhansk Governor says local ceasefire agreed to evacuate civillians,” The Guardian, 23 March 2022
Nine humanitarian corridors agreed for Wednesday – Ukraine's deputy PM,” Reuters, 23 March 2022 
Daniel Boffery, “Chernihiv rations drinking water as Russia accused of taking city hostageThe Guardian, 23 March 2022
Zelenskyy slams UN over failure on Ukraine in Japan address,” Al Jazeera, 24 March 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 23 March 2022
Egypt requests IMF support as economy buffeted by Ukraine spillover,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
Japan unsure how Russia will execute rouble payments for energy sold to 'unfriendly' nations,” Reuters, 23 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

ITALY
Prime Minister Mario addresses parliament on Russia
On 23 March, Prime Minister Mario Draghi asked China to stop supporting Russia and to participate in peace efforts over Ukraine. He also expressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in agreeing on a ceasefire which could lead to further negotiations. Draghi stated: “The diplomatic effort can only succeed when Moscow really wants it too.” Draghi was also concerned about the shortage of computer chips and the need to prioritize the production of semiconductors in Europe. (“Italy's Draghi urges China to support peace efforts in Ukraine,” Reuters, 23 March 2022)

THE UK
Cabinet in disagreement over ease of Planning Laws
On 23 March, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposal to ease Planning Laws on onshore windmills was disagreed by some in the Cabinet. The government has increased attention to renewable energy and is planning to release a new Energy Security Strategy. The Planning restrictions that former Prime Minister David Cameron imposed in 2015 gave local councils effective veto over projects and are proposed to be eased. Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, supports easing planning laws to make it smoother to approve plans for more onshore windmills. (Ione Wells, “Cabinet split over changing planning law to allow more wind farms,” BBC, 23 March 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Survey of Isle of Man territorial seas for carbon stores
On 23 March, a team of scientists began surveying the Isle of Man's territorial waters for plants that store carbon as part of a broader effort to reduce emissions. The study would lead to the understanding of how much carbon is stored in the seas around the island. Further, how to manage any "destructive practices" that release the carbon stores, and to restore marine vegetation in specific places. The National Oceanographic Centre and Swansea University, Wales are working with the island’s government on a year-long project to document "blue carbon". A marine management plan will be developed over the next two years once the information has been collected. (“Scientists begin Isle of Man marine carbon stores drone search,” BBC, 23 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
US President Biden urges private firms to level up their cyber-defences
On 23 March, US President Joe Biden called on private companies and organizations to increase their cyber-security precautions, concerning cyber-attacks from Russia. The US and the West are concerned about the three Russian-based cyberattacks- BlackEnergy, NotPetya and the cyberattack that targeted the Colonial pipeline. Ukraine has been relatively unaffected by the Russian cyber-offensives, but experts are now concerned that Russia may launch a cyber-offensive against Ukraine's allies. If a NATO country is the victim of a cyber-attack that results in death or significant irreversible damage, Article 5 of the alliance's collective defense clause, could be invoked. (Joe Tidy, “The three Russian cyber-attacks the West most fears,” BBC, 23 March 2022)


23 March 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #156

War in Ukraine: Day 27

Global inflation reach peak; The US and the UK to drop mutual tariffs 

Photo : CNS photo/Remo Casilli, Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 27
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the Ground: 
Zelensky’s address to the Italian Parliament, targeted attacks

Zelensky’s address
On 22 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his address to the Italian parliament, reported on the situation of Mariupol. He said that there was “nothing left” in Mariupol apart from the ruins. Zelensky called Italy to freeze the assets of the Russian Oligarchs. He said: “Freeze all their property, accounts and yachts. Freeze all the assets of those who have influence, let them use it for peace. Support sanctions against Russia, a full trade embargo, starting with oil.” Second, he urged the ministers to impose a ban on Russian ships from entering Italy and asked to sanction all the banks of Russia. Third, he called in for help to remove Russian troops from the ground and stressed on “reconstruction of Ukraine.” Apart from this Zelensky mentioned that “For Russian troops, Ukraine is the gates of Europe, where they want to break in, but barbarism must not be allowed to pass.” In response, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that Italy wishes to see Ukraine as part of the EU and assured to provide military support to stop the massacres.
 
On 22 March, Zelensky, after talking with Pope Francis, asked for the Vatican to engage as a mediator to help end the war. He said: “The mediating role of the Holy See [the jurisdiction of the Pope] in ending human suffering would be appreciated.”
 
Ukraine Military advance
On 22 March, the Ukraine government claimed the killing of 15,000 Russian servicemen. Russian authorities on the contrary confirmed the death of only 500.
 
Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 22 March, the Mariupol’s council reported that Russian troops had attacked the city again with two large bombs, and the causalities are yet to be disclosed. According to the council: “Once again it is clear that the occupiers are not interested in the city of Mariupol. They want to level it to the ground and make it the ashes of a dead land.” Ukraine authorities reported that the north-eastern city of Ukraine, Kharkiv was attacked by Russia destroying thousands of residential buildings, killing more than 500 civilians. Apart from Kharkiv, the residential areas in the city of Odesa were also targeted by the Russian troops. On the same, Ukraine’s minister pointed out that Odesa being the strategic point in the war for Russia, the reason behind the attack of civilian buildings were due to its inability to proceed on the land. He also said that Ukraine’s troops were holding firm against Russia in the city of Odesa.
 
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 22 March, a Russian newspaper was accused of hacking its website. It reported that after it published the casualty figures, it found the page to have been hacked as the figures mentioned started to turn into thousands. After BBC investigated the hack, it found that 557 Russian soldiers were listed to have died in the conflict. So far, Ukraine claims 14,000, while the US intelligence states 7,000 Russian soldiers to have died.
 
On 22 March, Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations Alexey Serko reported that Russia had received an influx of 360,000 people from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He said: “Over 360,000 people have crossed the Russian border since 18 February, 22,000 of them have been staying in temporary accommodation centres, others left for relatives, some went back.”

On 22 March, TASS reported that the UNSC announced the reviewal of the usage of dangerous chemicals in Ukraine. Previously, on 19 March, Russian National Defense Control Center head Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev announced that Ukrainian nationalists were found to be preparing ammonia and chlorine storage in the city of Sumy to poison the civilians when Russian forces entered.
 
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 22 March, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan talked about the war in Ukraine at the White House. He claimed that Russia had set an objective before initiating its war and said that Russia planned on “subjugating Ukraine, enhancing Moscow’s power and prestige, and dividing the West.” However, he said: “Russia has thus far manifestly failed to accomplish all three objectives. In fact, it has thus far achieved the opposite.” Sullivan further predicted that the war would worsen more soon and mentioned: “There will be hard days ahead in Ukraine – hardest for the Ukrainian troops on the front lines and the civilians under Russian bombardment.” 
 
On 21 March, US President Joe Biden addressed India’s stance in the war on Ukraine at the business leaders’ summit. He said India’s response to the war in Ukraine has been “somewhat shaky.” However, he praised the other Quad members saying: “The Quad is, with the possible exception of India being somewhat shaky on some of this, but Japan has been extremely strong -- so has Australia -- in terms of dealing with Putin’s aggression.” 
 
The EU
On 21 March, The EU member disagreed with imposing sanctions on the energy sector of Russia. Germany stated that the bloc was too dependent on Russian oil to decide on an embargo. These calls for fresh sanctions came with the increasing civilian deaths and Russia’s siege and bombardment of Mariupol. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: “what’s happening in Mariupol is a massive war crime. Destroying everything, bombarding and killing everybody in an indiscriminate manner. This is something awful.”
 
The UK
On 22 March, a UK official stated that Ukrainian military claims of a Russian shortage of food and ammunition were true. The official said: “If they were to send in weapons now, they would struggle to get them into theatre within weeks because they are so bad at this.” The official further mentioned that it was unlikely for Lukashenko to join the war. He said: “Lukashenko’s main concern is staying in power and this would be a threat, so I think he will try to avoid it.” 
 
The Global Fallout
International implications of the Ukraine war 
 
UN
On 22 March, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres talked about a possible ‘global hunger crisis’ as a repercussion of the war in Ukraine. Guterres said: “Continuing the war in Ukraine is morally unacceptable, politically indefensible, and militarily nonsensical.” He also spoke about Russia’s invasion of Mariupol and said: “Even if Mariupol falls, Ukraine cannot be conquered city by city, street by street, house by house.” He then called the war “unwinnable” and would eventually be brought to a peace table from the battlefield. 
 
Sudan
On 22 March, the Save the Children aid group warned of an exacerbated economic and humanitarian crisis in Sudan as the wheat imports are at risk due to Russia’s invasion. The war has disrupted shipments from Russia and Ukraine, and these two countries account for nearly 30 per cent of the global wheat exports. The aid group says this would especially impact Sudan, where a military coup had taken over the country in October 2021. Save the Children’s Chief Operating Officer David Wright said: “Sudan is in a particularly vulnerable position because 86-87 per cent of its wheat imports is coming from Russia and Ukraine combined…almost 20 million people, or almost half the country, being food insecure.” 
 
East Africa
On 22 March, a report by the charitable organisation Oxfam warned that millions of people in East Africa are at a risk of extreme hunger because of the price hike caused by the War in Ukraine. Furthermore, the report added that there was a possibility of a lack of rain this March which could cause a drought. Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia are currently experiencing the driest weather in the last 40 years. Oxfam’s International Executive Director Gabriela Bucher said: “Areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and beyond are experiencing an unfolding full-scale catastrophe. Even if the rains do arrive this month, full recovery will be near impossible unless urgent action is taken today.”
 
Southeast Asia
On 22 March, a report by the BBC mentioned how the Southeast Asian region would feel an “economic pinch” due to the war in Ukraine. Store owners have been facing a crisis with supplies as food and drink stocks from across Eastern Europe have halted. A Russian supermarket owner in Singapore mentioned: “Our products from Ukrainian suppliers will likely stop,” However, she said, she would eventually diversify her supply chain to avoid delays in shipments due to the war.
 
References:
BBC Live,” BBC, 22 March 2022
Ministry reveals over 360,000 people poured into Russia from Ukraine, Donbass,” TASS, 22 March 2022
UN Security Council to discuss chemical incidents in Ukraine — Russian mission,” TASS, 22 March 2022
Ukraine war is 'unwinnable', UN chief says,” The Guardian, 22 March 2022 
UN chief calls for an end to Russia’s ‘absurd war’ in Ukraine,” Al Jazeera, 22 March 2022
Millions in East Africa risk extreme hunger - Oxfam,” BBC, 22 March 2022
Monica Miller & Derek Cai, “South East Asia feels economic pinch of Ukraine war,” BBC, 22 March 2022 
Ukraine war's impact on wheat threatens hunger in Sudan: Aid group,” The Economic Times, 22 March 2022
Russia has ‘failed’ to achieve objectives in Ukraine, US says,” Al Jazeera, 22 March 2022
 Ingrid Melander and Sabine Siebold, “EU split on Russia oil sanctions, mulls other steps,” Reuters, 22 March 2022
Lorne Cook, “EU slams 'war crimes' in Ukraine, mulls fresh sanctions,” Associated Press, 22 March 2022 
Julian Borger, “A UK official said the Ukrainian military claim that the Russian invasion army has only three days of food and ammunition left “sounds entirely plausible,” The Guardian, 22 March 2022
Biden says India response to Ukraine war 'somewhat shaky', praises Quad, NATO,” The Hindustan Times, 22 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

SWEDEN
Large scale mining might disturb Reindeer Herding
On 22 March, the Swedish government granted a concession to mine on a large scale to the Jokkmokk mining company. In response, activists argued that mining in the region will affect the reindeer herding practices and the indigenous Sami people of that region. Jokkmokk Iron Mines, a subsidiary of Beowulf Mining, first applied for the Kallak mine nine years ago. Even with the government's concession, the company must still obtain approval from a Swedish environmental court and meet other criteria. One of the conditions stated that initial construction must be initiated at specific times of the year to have the least impact on reindeer herding. (“Sweden gives green light to controversial iron mine,” Deutsche Welle, 22 March 2022)

THE UK
Assange gets married in prison amid extradition trials
On 23 March, Wikileaks founder Assange wed his former colleague Stella Morris at Belmarsh Prison. The US government is seeking Assange's extradition to stand trial on 18 espionage counts for WikiLeaks' release of US military records and diplomatic cables more than a decade ago. Journalists or photographers were not allowed inside the prison to witness the wedding due to security reasons. Moris’ wedding dress was adorned with a silvery inscription of his words, and her long veil was embroidered with messages such as "valiant", "relentless", and "free enduring love" to support Assange’s cause. (“WikiLeaks' Assange to get married in prison,” Reuters, 23 March 2022)

Inflation hits highest after three decades
On 23 March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS)  released February's Consumer Price Index value, which showed inflation of 6.2 per cent, the highest since 1992. As global commodity and energy prices soar, caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The UK now has the second-highest annual inflation rate among the Group of Seven countries, trailing behind the US. Although UK’s KPMG Chief Economist Yael Selfin said that the figures will influence the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates, she further added that if the prices are stabilized by 2023, the inflation may decrease to two per cent. (Andy Bruce, “UK inflation hits 30-year high of 6.2% as Sunak readies response,” Reuters, 23 March 2022)

REGIONAL
The US and the UK decide to drop mutual tariffs 
On 22 March, the US agreed to withdraw the Section 232 tariff on the UK. The UK too responded by dropping retaliatory tariffs on imports. The Section 232 tariffs were imposed on the UK steel and aluminium imports by Former US President Trump, citing National Security. Part of the agreement requires any China-owned UK steel companies to audit their financial records to assess any influence of the Chinese government and share the results with the United States. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and UK International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan reached an agreement after two days of trade talks in Baltimore. (“US to drop UK steel and aluminum tariffs,” Deutsche Welle, 22 March 2022)


22 March 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #155

War in Ukraine: Day 26

EU members divided over oil; UN warns on growing dependency on fossil fuels; Navalny sentence extended to nine years

Photo : State Emergency Service of Ukraine/via Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 26
By Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Shelling on Kyiv and Odessa; siege of Mariupol; Russia accused of state terrorism 

President Zelensky’s speech
On 21 March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept Russian ultimatums to give up cities such as Kyiv, Mariupol, or Kharkiv. Zelenskyy said: “We have an ultimatum with points in it. ‘Follow it and then we will end the war’.” He further added: “Ukraine cannot fulfill the ultimatum.” His speech comes as Russia heavily shelled the cities of Mariupol and Odessa.  

Shelling on Kyiv 
On 21 March, Russian forces shelled the capital of Kyiv and killed at least eight people. Buildings were wrecked and piles of smoke and rubble were scattered around the capital. The force of the explosion from the shelling had decimated the shopping centre car park in the Podil district of the city. Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that the shopping centre was used to store rocket launchers. He said: “High-precision long-range weapons on the night of 21 March destroyed a battery of Ukrainian multiple rocket launchers and a store of ammunition in a non-functioning shopping centre.”  

The siege of Mariupol 
On 20 March, hours after the bombardment, the port city in eastern Ukraine had received the heaviest bombardment and fighting the people had seen since Russia’s initial invasion. About 400,000 people have been trapped inside the city for two weeks since the Russians besieged it and restricted humanitarian corridors. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “that Russia’s siege of Mariupol was a terror that will be remembered for centuries to come.” However, Russia’s Defence Ministry blamed Ukrainian nationalists for causing the humanitarian crisis. The Ministry said they had even offered the people in the city to surrender.  

Defence Minister accuses Russia of state terrorism
On 21 March, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Russia was using state terrorism in Ukraine. Reznikov said: “Thousands and thousands of civilians…This is state terrorism. That is why [the] Kremlin must be stopped because it will go further. It will attack other countries.” He further thanked UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace for their military equipment that had boosted their defence capabilities. He said: “…Your role is special, and your courage and your spirit are in stark contrast with the passivity of some other countries.”  

Shelling in Odessa
On 21 March, Ukraine’s biggest port, Odessa, was shelled by Russian naval forces in the Black Sea. The Russian forces even shelled residential buildings on the outskirts of the city. The forces continued to besiege Mariupol as Ukraine refused to surrender the port city. The Russian forces have also blockaded Odessa from the sea as it is a symbolic and strategic target for Russia.  

Ammonia leak reported
On 21 March, an ammonia leak was reported near the chemical plants at Sumy. As a result, Sumy regional governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyy stated, the area within a five-kilometre radius was hazardous. This comes as Russian forces had besieged the northeastern Ukrainian city.  

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia  

Telephonic conversation with the President of Uzbekistan
On 21 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin spoke to President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev on a telephone call. The two leaders discussed bilateral cooperation and the implementation of agreements that the two countries were working on. Putin also informed Shavkat Mirziyoyev about the course of its special military operations to protect the Donbas region. According to Kremlin.ru, Shavkat Mirziyoyev understandably responded to Russia’s position and actions in the region.  

Russian court bans social media platforms 
On 21 March, the Tverskoi district court in Moscow banned Facebook and Instagram, citing them as “extremist” organisations, and accused them of “Russophobia.” The move is a part of Russia’s crackdown on social media amid its military actions in Ukraine. Russia’s FSB security service said: “The activities of the Meta organisation are directed against Russia and its armed forces.” Earlier, Russian authorities had only blocked the social media platform but now it has legally banned it.  

Russia summons the US Ambassador 
On 21 March, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan and issued a demarche to the US for President Joe Biden’s comments on Putin. The Ministry said: “It was emphasised that such statements by the US president, which are unworthy of a statesman of such a high rank, bring Russian-US relations to the brink of breaking off.” Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had earlier raised these remarks and stated that they were “unacceptable and unforgivable.” 

Concerning mediations with Kyiv
On 21 March, Moscow mentioned how it was grateful for the offers that many countries had extended to mediate the negotiations with Kyiv. However, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that they had to also make Ukraine more cooperative in the meetings. He said: “The choice of a venue for some hypothetical meeting is a secondary issue, although, of course, we are grateful to all countries that express their willingness to assist this negotiation process.” His statements came as Swiss President Ignazio Cassis offered to act as a mediator in the conflict. Cassis added: “Switzerland had both neutrality and the humanitarian tradition”. 

Lavrov discusses with Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud about Ukraine
On 21 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke to Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. The two leaders discussed Russia’s special operation in Ukraine and their peace negotiations with Kyiv. The Ministry said: “….He stressed that Russia is taking efforts to ensure the security of civilians while demilitarizing and de-nazifying that country.” The two leaders also discussed further strengthening Russia-Saudi relations. 

Peace treaty talks with Japan terminated
On 21 March, Moscow stated that it was terminating its peace treaty talks with Tokyo as they had imposed restrictions against Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry said: “…In the current situation the Russian side has no intention of continuing peace treaty talks with Japan, for it is impossible to discuss the signing of a fundamental treaty in bilateral relations with a country that takes an outspokenly unfriendly stance and tries to cause harm to the interests of our country.” Furthermore, visa-free trips by Japanese citizens were cancelled, and a joint economic activity on the South Kuril Islands was also terminated in response to Japan's restrictions. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 21 March, US President Joe Biden disclosed that Russia’s attempts of cyber-attack plans will be countered by the US using every tool it had. Previously Biden has issued a warning on a potential cyber attack from Russia. Biden stated that Russia’s cyberattacks were provoked due to the current economic sanctions levied by the US. He said: “You have the power, the capacity, and the responsibility to strengthen the cybersecurity and resilience of the critical services and technologies on which Americans rely. We need everyone to do their part.”

Poland
On 21 March, Poland Prime Minister Mateus Morawiecki asked Switzerland to freeze Russian Oligarch's accounts and seize their assets. Swiss President Ignazio Cassis responded saying that the country had taken measures in line with European Union but denied the seizing of assets. He reasoned that in the case where the oligarchs own companies in Switzerland of any sector, taking off their assets will risk the operation of the companies.

The UK
On 21 March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Council President Charles Michel have agreed to continue the cooperation for a unified UK-EU to respond to Russia’s invasion.

Germany
On 21 March, the government spokesperson of the German government announced the plan to supply additional arms to Ukraine, which will be done through placing orders in defense companies. The representative also confirmed that the supplied standard of the arms will remain the same as the previously delivered weapons.
 
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

MNCs
On 21 March, Burger King said that its overseas partner in Russia denied closing down 800 stores despite the warning to end the trade. Alexander Kolobov, who is the local partner said that he does not have the authority to stop the operations in Russia, and pointed out that it was the decision to be taken by the shareholders. He said that the decision to terminate will affect 25,000 persons, employees and their families. Many huge companies have shut down their businesses from Russia, however, businesses that are small in number or run by franchises have been running into a problem of dealing with complex contract agreements.

IOM
On 21 March, International Organisation for Migration reported the count of civilians displaced in Ukraine due to the war. As per the study conducted by IOM between March 9-16, it stated that close to 6.5 million people were displaced. IOM Director, General Antonio Vitorino said: “The scale of human suffering and forced displacement due to the war far exceeds any worst-case scenario planning.” Apart from this the OHCHR has recorded 2,421 civilians to have died as of 20 March. 

UN
On 19 March, the UN reported the count of total civilians killed so far in the war. It estimated 847 civilians, which included 64 children to be killed since 24 February. Apart from the deaths, close to 1400 have been injured due to shelling and airstrikes as said by the UN human rights office (OHCHR). According to OHCHR: “Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes.”

China
On 19 March, the Chinese Red Cross announced additional 10 million yuan of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The decision to provide aid was said by Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin as part of the everyday briefing. Previously the aid given amounted to 5 million Yuan.

Egypt
On 21 March, Egypt devalued its currency by 14 per cent as the foreign investors withdrew from Egyptian treasury markets fearing war in Ukraine. As per Refinitiv data, the value of the pound reduced from 18.17 to 18.27 which was earlier traded at 15.7 after November 2020. 

References: 
Ukraine's president says he will not accept Russian ultimatums to end war,” Reuters, 21 March 2022 
James Mackenzie, “At least eight killed as Kyiv shopping centre wrecked by shelling,” Reuters, 21 March 2022 
Mariupol, under heavy bombardment, buries its dead by roadside,” Reuters, 21 March 2022 
Ammonia leak reported at chemicals plant in Ukraine's besieged Sumy,” Reuters, 21 March 2022
Ukraine accuses Russia of state terrorism,” BBC, 21 March 2022
Russian forces shell port city Odesa, Ukrainian officials say,” BBC, 21 March 2022
Russia terminates peace treaty talks with Japan — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 21 March 2022
Lavrov informs Saudi top diplomat about special operation in Ukraine,” TASS, 21 March 2022
Kremlin highlights importance of making Ukraine more cooperative in negotiations,” TASS, 21 March 2022 
Russia issues demarche to US ambassador over Biden’s remarks regarding Putin,” TASS, 21 March 2022 
Russian Court Bans Instagram, Facebook as ‘Extremist’,” The Moscow Times, 21 March 2022
Telephone conversation with President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev,” Kremlin.ru, 21 March 2022
Nearly 6.5 mln displaced by war inside Ukraine – IOM,” Reuters, 21 March 2022
Switzerland must freeze Russian oligarchs' accounts, says Polish PM,” Reuters, 21 March 2022
Germany determined to deliver more arms to Ukraine,” Reuters, 21 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Emmanuel Royan 

RUSSIA
Prison time extended for Navalny after the new verdict 
On 22 March, President Vladimir Putin's most vocal critic Alexi Navalny was sentenced to nine years in prison, guilty of large scale fraud and contempt of court. Navalny was imprisoned in 2021 after surviving a nerve gas attack that he accused was perpetuated by the Kremlin. Prior to his imprisonment, Navalny was the main opposition leader in Russia, and his team frequently published investigations into the wealth of Russia's elites. However, Navalny is also accused of stealing several million dollars worth of donations given to his political organizations for personal use. He will now serve nine more years in a maximum-security prison. Which will be remote and with stricter conditions than the prison in Pokrov east of Moscow, where he has spent two and a half years. (“Russian court finds jailed Kremlin critic Navalny guilty of fraud,” Reuters, 22 March 2022)

REGIONAL
War in Ukraine imposes a strain on fertilizer supply chain
On 21 March, Euronews reported on the increase in production cost for farmers as the price of fertilizers boomed. The increase was due to the aftereffect of the Ukraine war. Russia, a major producer of fertilizer, exporting nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus, has become a challenge for farmers to acquire. The war restricted access to such fertilizers and with no immediate alternative, the economic conditions of the farmers have worsened. In order to meet the gap, Brussels and the European Commission have proposed to use the agricultural ministry to help the farmer groups. (Gregoire Lory, “Skyrocketing fertiliser prices sends farmers production costs soaring,” Euronews, 21 March 2022)

EU Summit: EU countries divided over oil embargo
On 21 March, EU Foreign Ministers signed a political agreement to support Ukraine with an additional EUR 500 million support of arms and military equipment. In terms of furthering the sanctions and imposing an oil embargo on Russia. Poland and the Baltic States urged for tightening of sanctions on Russia in the land and sea trade. On the oil embargo, several EU countries along with Germany showed hesitance is agreeing. Germany's Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock said: “The question on an oil embargo is not a question of whether we want or don't want it.” (Christopher Pilcher, “Brussels agrees on more military aid for Ukraine, but no new sanctions,” Euronews, 21 March 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Race to cut reliance on Russian Oil might increase global temperature
On 21 March, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned about addiction to fossil fuels in his keynote speech to the Economist Sustainability Summit. He warned that countries could become so obsessed with the immediate supply gap for fossil fuels that they ignore policies to reduce it. Scientists believe that keeping the rise in global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius this century is critical to limiting the scope of the damage caused by global warming. To maintain that threshold, carbon output must be halved by the end of this decade. Instead, as Guterres points out, emissions are expected to increase by 14 per cent. (Matt Macgrath, “Climate change: 'Madness' to turn to fossil fuels because of Ukraine war,” BBC, 22 March 2022)

 


21 March 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #154

War in Ukraine: Day 25

War on the ground; The Moscow view; The West view; The global fallouts

Photo : BBC/Institute of War


War in Ukraine: Day 25
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanbalan

WAR ON THE GROUND
President address in Israel Parliament, Switzerland anti-war protests and targeted attacks in Mariupol

Zelensky’s address
On 20 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Israeli Ministers in Israel Parliament. In his speech, he highlighted three points. First, asking the parliament to see it as a full-scale world war and not as a military operation. Second, to support Ukrainians, supply the best weapons, air defense, and third, he questioned the “neutrality of Israel” in the invasion. He also asked why the sanctions have not been levied on Russia by Israel.

On Mariupol, Zelensky accused Russia for the continued bombing of the city. So far, the airstrikes and shelling have hit several civilians ‘spaces such as residences, hospitals, and theatres, killing more than 2400 people.

On 20 March, Zelensky declared the ban on 11 pro-Russian parties under martial law as they were accused of being in relations with Russia. The parties include “Opposition Bloc, Party of Sharia, Ours, Left Opposition, Union of Left Forces, State, Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialist party Ukraine, Socialists, and Vladimir Saldo Bloc.”

On 20 March, Zelensky also addressed an anti-war protest outside the Swiss Parliament in Bern. He said: “Ukrainians feel what it is when cities are destroyed. They are being destroyed on the orders of people who live in European, in beautiful Swiss towns, who enjoy property in your cities. It would really be good to strip them of this privilege.” He urged for the confiscation funds in Swiss banks of those involved in instigating the war. Although not being a member of the EU, Switzerland has sanctioned Russia equally.

Ukraine’s military advance
On 20 March, Ukraine’s General Staff claimed that first Naval Officer Andrei Paly, Deputy Commander of Russia's Black Sea fleet, was killed in the fighting. The same was confirmed by the secretary of the Nakhimov naval college, Konstantin Tsarenko. Ukraine’s military has also stated to have killed 15,000 Russian troops in the last three weeks. Apart from the killing, it also updated on the destruction of Russia's Kostroma 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, Russian military hardware, 476 tanks, 200 jets, drones, and 1487 personnel haulers. The Military also observed that, instead of launching fresh attacks, the Russian military was replacing its lost and damaged equipment. It also claimed to have stopped the “Russian offensive” in Izyum located east. 

Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 20 March, Russian troops continued to advance in various locations from the port city of Mariupol, airstrike southeastern Ukrainian city Mykolaiv to eastern Ukraine town Kreminna. In particular, a school that sheltered 400 people and the biggest iron and steelworks factory in Mariupol was stricken by Russia, causing many causalities. The steel plant was considered to be the key element for Mariupol. Russia aims to capture Mariupol because it serves as an access corridor to the eastern Ukraine Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Apart from the strikes on Mariupol, 4000 to 4500 residents have been moved out to farther places by Russia. According to one of the Ukrainians, Russians have begun to walk in the basements where people are found to be sheltering and being forcefully moved. Although Russia initially denied the claim on moving civilians outside Ukraine,  the Defense Ministry later confirmed that the individuals were evacuated by the Russian government. It said the people were moved out upon their wish to “escape to Russia.”

THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia

On 20 March, TASS reported that people who have moved into Russia had crossed 335,000. The security officials have said that people from Donetsk, Lugansk and Ukraine regions have moved into Russia, out of which 111,000 are reported to be Russian, DPR and LPR citizens. Russian forces reported having brought down protests in many Ukrainian cities under control in Enerhodar. 

On 20 March, Russia launched a hypersonic missile for the second time to fuel deport in Ukraine. Previously the underground military base of Ukraine was targeted using advanced weaponry. Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the attack on the fuel storage and said that the missile could go 2,000kms, targeting at long range. It also claimed to have killed dozens of mercenaries through missile strikes. According to a spokesperson from the ministry: “High-precision air-launched missiles struck at the training centre for special operations forces of the Ukrainian armed forces, where foreign mercenaries who arrived in Ukraine were based.”

On 20 March, Russia’s Emergencies Ministry said that 250 humanitarian cargoes were supplied to Ukraine and Donbass. The spokesperson of the Ministry said: “On March 20, a convoy of 24 heavy-duty trucks from the Russian emergencies ministry’s Noginsk and Don rescue centres delivered another batch of some 250 tonnes of humanitarian cargoes, which included food products and articles of daily necessity, to Donbass and Ukraine.”

THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe

Belarus
On 20 March, a report by Radio Free Europe mentioned how Belarusian railway workers had cut off railway lines with Ukraine so that Russians could not send supplies from Belarus to its campaign against Kyiv. Ukraine's Director of the Ukrzaliznytsya state railroad, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said: "At the present moment, I can say that there is no railway connection between Ukraine and Belarus. I cannot discuss details, but I am grateful to Belarus's railway workers for what they are doing." He also called Belarus's railway workers honest people and noted that their actions deter Russia from sending military equipment through trains. 
 
Germany
On 20 March, a concert was held in Berlin to show the people's solidarity with Ukraine. Many performers wore shades of blue and yellow, which are the Ukrainian flag's colors. The concert was held near Brandenburg Gate, which symbolized a divided Germany in the Cold war. Ten thousand people were said to have attended the concert, waving Ukrainian flags or holding banners that opposed the Russian invasion. 
 
The US
On 20 March, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin mentioned a "significant reaction" from Washington if Russia resorted to chemical or biological weapons attack on Ukraine. He further talked about how Russia's advance had been stalled in other major cities. However, as reported by Deutsche Welle: "He also would not confirm or dispute whether Russia used hypersonic weapons in the war but added they have not been a game-changer." He further assured that the US and the allies would help create conditions for Ukraine to receive similar equipment like the Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to defend itself from the superior Russian air force. 
 
The UK
On 20 March, with the influx of Ukrainian refugees increasing rapidly, the Isle of Man came up with a scheme to host refugees. Under the scheme, people of the Isle of Man have to commit to offering accommodation for at least six months. Cabinet Office Minister Kate Lord-Brennan said: "We have decided to create our own scheme instead of following the UK approach, to better meet the needs of our community." The government would ensure checks of the properties are appropriate and safe for both the hosts and the guests. However, the decision to provide financial assistance to hosts is still under consideration. 
 
The Vatican
On 20 March, Pope Francis appealed to Russia to end its atrocities in Ukraine. At St Peter's Square, he said: "….there is no justification for this! I plead with all those involved in the international community to truly commit to ending this abhorrent war." Pope Francis also talked about his visit to the Bambino Gesù Pediatric Hospital on 19 March, where he saw children affected by the war receiving treatment. He then urged the Europeans to be more generous and welcome the Ukrainian refugees wholeheartedly. 
 
Switzerland
On 20 March, Switzerland's President Ignazio Cassis extended an offer to organize talks between Ukraine and Russia. Cassis mentioned: "It's a small country with a strong commitment to freedom. It is ready to play the role of a mediator behind the scenes or host negotiations." Cassis had earlier stressed on the idea that Switzerland was a neutral country, and it "…combines neutrality with a humanitarian tradition." 
 
NATO
On 20 March, the first units of the Patriot air defense systems from NATO partner countries arrived in Slovakia. Slovakia's Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad stated that the systems would be set up at the Sliac airport. As a part of NATO, Germany and Dutch soldiers would operate them to strengthen air defenses in Eastern Europe further. However, Slovakia's Russian-made S-300s would not be replaced, and the new defense systems were just an addition.

THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
International implications of the Ukraine war

Australia 
On 20 March, Australia announced to step up its support to Ukraine and committed 70,000 tonnes of thermal coal for the country. In addition, Prime Minister Scott Morrison's government said they would offer USD 21 million for military support and another USD 30 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Furthermore, Canberra announced to impose a ban on exporting alumina and aluminium ores to Russia. 

Japan and Cambodia
On 20 March, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen urged Russia to immediately end the war in Ukraine. The two leaders condemned Russia's aggression in Ukraine and said it was "A grave breach of the United Nations Charter." A joint statement read: "...recognised that this aggression jeopardises the foundation of international order which does not accept any unilateral change of the internationally recognised borders by force." Hun Sen cited Cambodia's civil war of 1970-1991 and mentioned how a war could only end by peaceful means and not by war. 

China
On 20 March, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that Beijing stood on the right side of history concerning the crisis in Ukraine. Wang said: "China will never accept any external coercion or pressure, and opposes any unfounded accusations and suspicions against China." His comments were a response to US President Joe Biden's warning on consequences if China supplied military equipment to Russia. Wang reiterated: "We have always stood for maintaining peace and opposing war." 

UNHCR
On 20 March, the UNHRC said about 10 million people had now fled Ukraine or were internally displaced due to the war. UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi said: "Among the responsibilities of those who wage war, everywhere in the world, is the suffering inflicted on civilians who are forced to flee their homes." Furthermore, 90 per cent of the people who have fled were women and children. At the same time, men aged 18-60 could not leave Ukraine due to the imposition of martial law. 

The Anonymous
On 20 March, the Anonymous hacktivist collective said they had been attacking Moscow with cyber-attacks since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. A recent hack interrupted Russian TV networks with images and clips of bombs exploding in Ukraine and soldiers talking about the horrors of war. The group also said: "We will intensify the attacks on the Kremlin if nothing is done to restore peace in Ukraine." In addition, the collective has been using DDoS attacks that overwhelm a server and temporarily take it offline.

References:
BBC Live,” BBC, 20 March 2022
Over 335,000 people have arrived in Russia from Ukraine, Donbass, says source,” TASS, 20 March 2022
Russian aviation hits 62 Ukrainian military facilities during night, says top brass.” TASS, 20 March 2022
More ugly facts about Western nations to surface after operation in Ukraine – diplomat,” TASS, 20 March 2022
Russia’s emergencies ministry delivers 250 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Donbass,” TASS, 20 March 2022
China on the right side of history over Ukraine war, foreign minister says,” Reuters, 20 March 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Zelenskiy tells Knesset Russia envisages a ‘final solution’ for Ukraine,” The Guardian, 20 March 2022
UN says 10 million have fled their homes in Ukraine since Russia invasion,” The Times of Israel, 20 March 2022
Joe Tidy, “Anonymous: How hackers are trying to undermine Putin,” BBC, 20 March 2022
Germany and Netherlands deploy air defense systems in Slovakia,” Deutsche Welle, 20 March 2022
Matthew Ward, “Australia to send 70,000 tonnes of Whitehaven coal to Ukraine,” Financial Review, 20 March 2022
US Defense Secretary says Russia ‘stalled’,” Deutsche Welle, 20 March 2022 
Melissa Quinn, “Austin vows "significant reaction" if Russia uses chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine,” CBS News, 20 March 2022
Pope Francis: 'War against Ukraine is inhuman and sacrilegious’,” Vatican News, 20 March 2022
Switzerland ready to host Ukraine-Russia negotiations,” The Statesman, 20 March 2022
Isle of Man scheme to host Ukrainian refugees created,” BBC, 19 March 2022
Berlin concert draws 10,000 in solidarity with Ukraine,” Reuters, 20 March 2022
Yevhenia Tahanovych, “Ukrainian Railways Chief Says 'Honest' Belarusians Are Cutting Russian Supplies By Train,” Radio Free Europe, 20 March 2022
Japan and Cambodia leaders urge Russia to immediately end war in Ukraine,” South China Morning Post, 21 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

UKRAINE
Chernobyl workers relieved after a month of working round the clock
On 20 March, half of the single shift staff working persistently at the Chernobyl nuclear waste facility were replaced by other workers. On 24 February, Russia captured Chernobyl nuclear facilities. The team that was working then had been on duty constantly, since Russia captured the facility and were unable to rotate out. The International Atomic Energy Agency had warned that they were exhausted and working under extreme pressure, which posed a threat to safety. In the presence of foreign military forces and without appropriate rest, they were performing important work tasks under highly stressful and tiring conditions. (Francis Murphy, “Chernobyl staff rotated out for first time since site's capture, IAEA says,” Deutsche Welle, 21 March 2022)

REGIONAL
EU discusses fifth round of sanctions
On 21 March, the EU initiated the discussions on the fifth round of sanctions over Russia, which included talks on the oil embargo. Baltic countries such as Lithuania are pressing for an embargo as the next logical step. Germany, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas, is cautioning against acting too quickly due to Europe's inflated energy prices. Defense ministers of the EU will also discuss a "strategic compass," a new EU military strategy meant to address the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. (Siebold and Melander, “EU must impose sanctions on Russian oil, ministers tell divided bloc,” Reuters, 21 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Germany: Transatlantic trade agreements resumed with the EU and the US
On 20 March, Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner asked to resume talks over free trade between the EU and the US. Former US President Donald Trump, under his tenure, had halted negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. He further emphasized the significance of free trade with partners who share similar values amid the crisis. In an indirect response to the call, the US embassy in Germany mentioned that the existing US-EU trade and technology council encourages trade and broad-based growth. They further stated: "The current crisis shows the United States and Germany, and the European Union, are indispensable partners." (“Germany calls for new talks on transatlantic trade deal,” Reuters, 20 March 2022)

German Economic Minister Robert Habeck visits Qatar
On 20 March, Economic Minister Robert and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani agreed on a long-term energy partnership at Doha. In addition, the agreement also focuses on promoting energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy projects. Berlin plans to import Qatar’s Liquified Natural Gas through ships but lacks the terminal infrastructure to receive them. However, they have announced plans to build two LNG terminals by 2026; Until then, Germany will depend on Russian gas through Nord Stream 2 pipelines. (“Qatar to help Germany cut reliance on Russian gas, says minister,” Deutsche Welle, 20 March 2022)


19 March 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #153

War in Ukraine: Day 24

Ukraine War to influence Macron’s poll in the upcoming elections; Climate change’s impact farming in Europe; Baerbock announces a new national security strategy

Photo : Annegret Hilse/Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 24
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground: 
14,000 Russian troops killed
On 19 March, Ukraine’s general staff claimed to have killed over 14,000 Russian troops since Moscow’s invasion. This comes as Ukrainian forces also claimed to have killed a fifth Russian general who commanded the 8th guards combined army. Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev is said to have been killed by Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Ukraine. However, BBC suggested that the claims could not be independently verified. 

Access to the Sea of Azov temporarily lost
On 19 March, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said it had lost temporary access to the sea of Azov as Russian forces had tightened their grip around the port of Mariupol. Ukraine’s Defence Ministry stated: “The occupiers have partially succeeded in the Donetsk operational district, temporarily depriving Ukraine of access to the Sea of Azov.” Mariupol is a strategic point for advancing Russian forces as it is located near Crimea on the west and the Donetsk region on the east. Nevertheless, the Ministry has not mentioned if it has regained access to the sea. 

Russian saboteurs detained 
On 19 March, Ukrainian forces said they detained 127 saboteurs and 14 infiltration groups in Kyiv trying to infiltrate the capital. The Ukrainian forces were successful as they set up roadblocks and checkpoints to capture the pro-Russian members. As reported by BBC: “They are the basis of fortifications, engineering barriers, checkpoints for vehicles and people, and of the construction of other systems, including those for live-fire..”

Impact of the war
On 19 March, Ukraine’s Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky talked about the mines placed by the Russian forces in Ukraine. He said: “We won’t be able to remove the mines from all that territory, so I asked our international partners and colleagues from the European Union and the United States to prepare groups of experts to determine the areas of combat and facilities that came under shelling.” Denys Monastyrsky further mentioned that it would take years to defuse all of the unexploded Russian ordinances. 

Russian strike on Mykolaiv base
On 18 March, Russia launched missiles from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv base. Russian forces recently occupied Kherson. The death toll was not confirmed, but at least 80 bodies were pulled out of the rubble. As reported by BBC: “Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Senkevich has said there was no time to sound air raid sirens before the raid as missiles were launched from the nearby Kherson region, to the south-east.” 

Zelenskyy’s call for peace talks
On 19 March, on a video, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed for talks with the Kremlin. Zelenskyy said: “This is the time to meet, to talk, time for renewing territorial integrity and fairness for Ukraine…Otherwise, Russia’s losses will be such that several generations will not recover.” Zelenskyy’s remarks came as Russia continued its offensive in Ukraine and intense fighting continued in Mariupol. 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Mariupol breached
On 19 March, Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that it had entered the city of Mariupol, this was followed by Zelenskyy appealing for a new round of talks with Russia. The Ministry released a statement: “In Mariupol, units of the Donetsk People’s Republic, with the support of the Russian armed forces, are squeezing the encirclement and fighting against nationalists in the city centre.” This came as a breakthrough for the Russian forces as they had been shelling the city for days. 

Use of hypersonic missiles
On 19 March, Russia used its Kinzhal hypersonic missiles for the first time in Ukraine. The missiles were targeted to destroy a weapons storage site. Russia had never admitted using high-precision weapons in combat until now. The Russian Defence Ministry said: “The Kinzhal aviation missile system with hypersonic aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.” The Kinzhal or dagger is a missile that flies at ten times the speed of sound, deterring it from being targeted by Ukraine’s air defence systems. 

Progress in talks
On 19 March, Russia claimed that the talks recently held showed progress in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The two countries discussed a proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral state. Earlier, the Kremlin talked about Ukraine becoming a neutral state like Sweden or Austria. Russia’s lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said: “The topic of neutral status and Ukraine’s non-accession to NATO is one of the key points of the talks, this is the point on which the parties brought their positions as close as possible.” However, there were issues when Ukraine discussed security guarantees. 

On the same day, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the US of restraining Kyiv from agreeing to Russia’s demands. He said: “It is constantly felt that the Ukrainian delegation is being held by the hand, most likely by the Americans, not allowing them to agree to the demands that I think are absolutely minimal.” However, Lavrov did not provide any evidence to back these statements. 

Responding to Biden’s comments
On 18 March, Russian Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned US President Joe Biden’s remarks about Putin. Peskov said: “Bearing in mind Mr. Biden’s irritability, fatigue and forgetfulness, which eventually results in aggressive statements, we will possibly prefer to refrain from making any strong comments so as not to trigger more aggression.” This came after Biden had claimed Putin was a murderous dictator, pure thug, and he waged an immoral war against the people of Ukraine.

West’s information war
On 18 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned the West’s strategy to wage an information war against Russia. He said: “Substitution of notions often takes place.… It’s a war. It’s a war that involves methods of information terrorism. There is no doubt about this.” Lavrov further added that the US and UK media controlled the global information field. He further claimed that there was nothing called independent Western media and that censorship continued in these countries on a large scale. 

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 19 March, a well-known think tank in the US, the Institute for the Study of War has provided an analysis on the Russian invasion. It stated how Russia uses force to lay a strict administration along with the police regime, but also through distribution of food to the public, to portray a good image. In terms of Ukraine, the think found that the Ukrainian forces through counterattacks have safeguarded the southern city of Mykolaiv and have stopped the advancing of troops in Kharkiv. Another think tank, the Center for Global Development warned that the hike in the price of global food and oil will push more than 40 million in the world into “extreme poverty.”

Poland
On 19 March, Poland Prime Minister Mateus Morawiecki stressed on the EU to impose a full ban blocking both sea and land trade with Russia. He said: “Fully cutting off Russia's trade would further force Russia to consider whether it would be better to stop this cruel war.” Although the EU has sanctioned Russia in luxury goods, steel and energy sectors, Poland has been on the front in pressurising the EU to levy stricter sanctions.

The UK
On 19 March, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pointed out strongly that Russia had launched the war out of fear of Ukraine gaining freedom and fear of having a democratic nation as its neighbour. He said that Putin will not stop with Ukraine invasion and winning Ukraine would mean the end of freedom to Georgia and Moldova. Johnson recommended bold steps against Russia and recommended cutting down the dependency on oil and gas.

On 19 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported the change in Russia’s strategy in war. It said that due to staunch resistance from Ukraine, Russia has been pushed to differ from its “operational approach” and has opted for the “strategy of attrition.” The change has led to more civilian deaths, damage of Ukraine infrastructure and deepened the humanitarian crisis.

On 19 March, with the ICC in process of investigating Putin for the accused war crimes, the Former British Prime Minister signed a petition calling for new international tribunal to interrogate Putin based on “Nuremberg trials.” He said through the formation of a tribunal, any loophole in international law will be closed for Putin, he also pointed out the crimes carried out by Russia against International law. The crimes were, the breaking of humanitarian ceasefire promises and “nuclear blackmail.”

Ireland
On 19 March, Ireland’s Foreign Minister said that bringing back Iran into the nuclear deal will help ease the oil prices. With rising oil prices due to sanctions on Russia, Iran entering the deal would mean an alternative to supply oil to the global market. As the UK and the EU look out to cut down dependency on Russian oil, Iran can be a better exchange.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

MNCs
On 19 March, Bosch, one of Europe’s top car-parts manufacturers announced the decision to stop production in Russia. The withdrawal comes as the company faces similar challenges like other MNCs, the problem of supply chain disruption. The main reason behind the choice is Ukraine’s claim on products supplied by Bosch being used in Russian infantry vehicles. Although Germany has reasoned it as long-existing business between Europe and Russia, an investigation has been launched to check whether it is violating the sanctions imposed by the EU.

The UN
On 19 March, the UN reported the count of total civilians killed so far in the war. It estimated 847 civilians, which included 64 children to be killed since 24 February. Apart from the deaths, close to 1400 have been injured due to shelling and airstrikes as said by the UN human rights office (OHCHR). According to OHCHR: “Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes.”

WFP
On 19 March, the World Food Programme (WFP) of the UN failed to reach the people stuck in the city of Mariupol. It is due to Russian troops which have surrounded the city and the truck drivers have refused to drive risking their lives. WFPs emergency coordinator, Jakob Kern commented that Russia’s block to the entry of food supplies is: “unacceptable in the 21st century.”

Japan
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi, he remarked that the foundations of the international order has shuffled due to the Russian invasion. So far Japan has levied many sanctions on Russian individuals and organizations, while India is yet to condemn Russia. Kishida said: “We (Kishida and Modi) confirmed any unilateral change to the status quo by force cannot be forgiven in any region, and it is necessary to seek peaceful resolutions of disputes based on international law.”

China
On 19 March, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng commented on the sanctions levied by the West on Russia as “Outrageous.” He also asked the NATO not to advance further in the east of Europe to prevent triggering Russia. China has opposed sanctions put on Russia but has not condemned the invasion, it has opposed the sanctions strongly till now. Le Yucheng said: “History has proven time and again that sanctions cannot solve problems. Sanctions will only harm ordinary people, impact the economic and financial system... and worsen the global economy.”

References: 
Ukraine 'temporarily' loses access to Sea of Azov, Defence Ministry says,” Reuters, 19 March 2022
It will likely take years to defuse all of the unexploded Russian ordinances, the Associated Press reports,” The Guardian, 19 March 2022
Here's what you need to know,” BBC, 19 March 2022
Victims pulled out of rubble after Russian strike on Mykolaiv base,” BBC, 19 March 2022
Russia Claims Progress in Talks With Kyiv on a Neutral Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 19 March 2022 
Russia Uses Advanced Hypersonic Missiles in Ukraine for the First Time,” The Moscow Times, 19 March 2022 
Emmanuel Duparcq and Dmytro Gorshkov, “Zelenskiy Calls for Fresh Talks, Russia Says Entered Mariupol Centre,” The Moscow Times, 19 March 2022 
West wages information war against Russia, uses information terrorism — Lavrov,” TASS, 18 March 2022 
Biden uttered "personal insults" addressed to Putin — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 18 March 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 19 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 
FRANCE
War in Ukraine increases Macron’s probability of re-election
On 18 March, a report by BBC mentioned how the war in Ukraine had boosted incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron’s candidacy in the upcoming elections. Macron’s diplomatic visits and the role in mediating between Ukraine and Russia improved his poll rating and has made his re-election seem inevitable. Veteran commentator Pierre Haski examined that Macron has two factors working for him. One is the opposition's disarray. The other factor is the global political climate, which is working almost effortlessly in his favour. It's shaping up to be the most tedious presidential election in living memory. Apart from that, since France took up the EU’s Presidency this year, it has highlighted Macron on the international stage. (Hugh Schofield, “French elections: Putin’s war gives Macron boost in presidential race,” BBC, 18 March 2022)

GERMANY 
Foreign Minister Baerbock outlines the key elements of national security strategy
On 18 March, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced to start the deliberations on Germany’s new national security plan. Baerbock's plans for a national security strategy that are based upon the need to secure freedoms and the foundation for people's livelihoods. She emphasised the importance of a comprehensive approach to national security that includes international partners, stating that security policy is more than just the military and diplomacy. Reflecting on the past, the Foreign Minister stated that Germany bears a "special responsibility" due to its history and guilt for atrocities committed during World War II. She lastly advocated for a new security strategy that was forward-thinking, focusing on cybersecurity, which has become an integral part of modern warfare.(Alex Berry, “German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock presents Germany’s national security strategy,” Deutsche Welle, 18 March 2022) 

REGIONAL
Spain: Moroccan plan of autonomy for Western Sahara accepted
On 18 March, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez recognized the autonomy initiative presented by Morocco in 2007. Morocco has claimed Western Sahara as its own since annexing it in 1975 after Spain abandoned its former colony. Under the new plan, Spain would accept autonomy in the Western Sahara. A major diplomatic incident in 2021 led to the recent policy shift . Madrid permitted Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali to fly to Spain for medical treatment. Morocco reacted by allowing up to 10,000 individuals to cross into the Spanish North African enclave of Ceuta, resulting in a humanitarian crisis. (“Morocco says Spain backs its designs on Western Sahara,” Deutsche Welle, 18 March 2022)

Climate change’s impact on farmers and farming
On 18 March, Deutsche Welle reported the adverse effects of climate change and its impact on crops in Europe. Europe has been experiencing hotter summers, severe storms, and prolonged dry spells. Climate change would also induce frequent events of flash floods, water shortages, and hailstorms; this has caused a shift in growing conditions for several crops in Europe. However, the European Environment Agency (EEA) report stated that climate change could benefit northern Europe. This comes as northern Europe would face shorter frost periods and open up the opportunities to cultivate newer crops and varieties. (Martin Kuebler, “In Europe, climate change brings new crops, new ideas,” Deutsche Welle, 18 March 2022)


18 March 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #152

War in Ukraine: Day 23

Bulgaria’s former Prime Minister detained; Corsica’s Yvan Colonna granted suspension of prison time; The US to supply military equipments to the UK

Photo : Reuters/Roman Baluk


War in Ukraine: Day 23
By Padmashree Ananadhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground: President address in the German parliament, continuing attacks
Zelensky’s address
On 18 March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his address to German Lawmakers highlighted three key points. One, divided stance of Germany from Europe on Ukraine in terms of energy policy and business interests. Which contributes for the differed stance. Two, bringing back the cold war events in west Berlin, urged for airlift and no-fly zone to guard the country. Three, Germany’s responsibility to counter back the Nazi crimes happening in Ukraine. He urged Germany to bring down the difference wall built between both countries. Zelensky said: “We see that the views of the Germans are changing, and this is very important. We see Germany looking for a new path.” He demanded: “Dear Mr Scholz, tear down this wall.”

Ukraine Military advance
On 18 March, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence claimed the arrival of 150 Syrian troops into Russia on 17 March. It estimates 40,000 Syrians to have signed up to join Russian military with a salary of USD 15 per month.

On 18 March, in the report released by Ukraine military, it claimed of destroying seven aircrafts, one helicopter, UAV drones and wing missiles of Russia. It also said: “In certain temporarily occupied territories, Russian occupiers are trying to create a demonstrative positive image of themselves by distributing food items to civilian population.”

Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 18 March, Mariupol is becoming the centre for attacks and suffering of people due to continuing rapid attacks by Russia. The local official reported that 90 per cent of the southern port city was destroyed including its historic white theatre and many women, children who were sheltering have rescued out from wreckage. In the total people remaining in Mariupol, only 30,000 have been evacuated, the rest close to 350,000 are still reported to be stuck under the radar of Russia. On the same, Zelensky alleged Russia for halting the humanitarian corridors in Mariupol through attacks, he assured that 35,000 people were rescued from the white theatre. With growing attacks and challenges in evacuation, Zelensky promised not to stop the efforts for Ukraine in becoming the member of the EU. Similarly, in talks with Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, vowed to speed the process of joining Ukraine into the EU.

On 18 March, Lyiv city Mayor confirmed the strike on the aircraft maintenance facility. Russian missiles targeted the aircraft repair plant in Lviv, situated in the western Ukraine. The city Lviv is so far the farthest attacked region in the West, but it serves as important point for evacuation and fleeing. Apart from Lviv, eastern city of Kharkiv and Kramatorsk city in south were also attacked with missiles injuring, rescue workers, civilians close to 25.

Other Developments
On 18 March, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said about the talks with the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief on imposing the next package of EU sanctions on Russia. So far EU has levied sanctions on energy sector, luxury goods, Swift banking system, assets in Russian Central Bank and oligarchs.


The Moscow view: Claims by Russia
On 18 March, Russia held a concert marking its eighth anniversary of annexation of Crimea at the Luzhniki stadium. The event was portrayed to show Russia’s love for its motherland and as per reports 200,000 people were present in the stadium. State workers, teachers were asked to take part and held the signs of “Crimean Spring.” President Putin addressed the crowd, praising the Russian unity, military and also mentioned that Russian troops present in eastern Ukraine were protecting people from genocide. Putin said: “When needed, they shield each other from bullets with their bodies like brothers. Such unity we have not had for a long time.” Apart from this, the symbol “Z” which was seen in the military troops of Russia, emerged as symbol of support amongst those in the stadium and children.

On 18 March, a separatist official in eastern Ukraine announced Russia’s move of adopting no-fly zone in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Tass reported: “The Krasnodar airport confirmed the extension of the closure of airports in southern Russia until 3.45am Moscow time on 26 March.”

On 18 March, President Vladimir Putin in a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave remarks on the ongoing peace talks. He said that Russia was keen in continuing the talks to negotiate with Ukraine, but Ukraine was trying to halt. He also referred to increasing war crimes committed by Ukrainian Army in the eastern cities of Donetsk and Makiivka. He criticised the West for negating the war crimes and also mentioned that Russian army was doing everything to prevent killing of civilians. The call with French President Emmanuel Macron also has similar talks, where Putin promised to protect the lives of the civilians and provide safe route for evacuation.

On 17 March, Putin dialled to Turkish President and listed down five demands to reach peace deal with Ukraine. First, Ukraine to remain neutral and not make efforts to join NATO. Second, disarmament of Ukraine to ensure it is not threat to Russia in future. Third, Protection of Russian language inside Ukraine, a process known as de-Nazification. Fourth, in-person negotiations with President Zelensky before signing of the agreement.


The West view: Responses from the US and Europe 
The US
On 18 March, US President Joe Biden said he would speak to China's President Xi Jinping on a video call later in the day. This would be the first phone call since the video summit of November 2021. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said: "an opportunity for President Biden to assess where President Xi stands." In addition, Biden said he would warn Xi of the ramifications of helping Russia from Western sanctions. This would also be the first official discussion of the two leaders since the war broke out.

Germany
On 18 March, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on a telephonic call. He stressed on the humanitarian situation and called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. He further talked about the deteriorating situation and suggested a diplomatic solution for the war.

France
On 18 March, French government Spokesperson Gabriel Attal mentioned the Western sanctions against Russia and their impact on Moscow. However, he said, the sanctions were now showing a "real impact" and added: "We hope these sanctions will force [Russian president] Vladimir Putin to change his plans." 

Poland
On 18 March, as the refugee crisis in Poland increased, the country's business community stepped up to help out the Ukrainians. Mariana Zlahodniuk, a marketing and business advisor from Ukraine settled in Poland, shared her experiences at the border. She said: "Bakers sell me bread below-market prices, firms bring in the food for free, companies offer free transportation and drivers. It is an extraordinary effort." Polish businesses mobilized their support and were prepared to help Ukrainians in the long run.

On the same day, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieck said that Poland would formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping force in Ukraine at the next NATO summit. His announcement came as Poland's ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski mentioned about it on his visit to Kyiv. Kaczynski had stated that Poland stood with Ukraine and that it was necessary to have a peace mission.

Norway
On 18 March, Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said the country was prepared to receive around 100,000 refugees from Ukraine. Stoere said it would undoubtedly receive 30,000 refugees. However, they were preparing in advance to receive three times that number. He said: "That is not the most probable outcome but we must have plans and be prepared because it could happen." So far, Norway has received only 2,000 refugees, but the government said an additional 5,250 people were coming to the country.

The UK
On 18 March, the UK government launched an inquiry into the hoax calls received by UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace and Home Secretary Priti Patel. The imposter claimed to be Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and was able to get through to Wallace. The issue has raised serious security concerns, and an immediate inquiry was launched. Home Office Minister Holly Lynch said: "For individuals to be able to fraudulently gain access to two of the most senior government ministers with responsibilities for our national defence is worrying."

On the same day, the UK government announced the revocation of RT's licence. RT is a Russian state-backed news channel. UK Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries said: "Putin's polluting propaganda machine…I welcome Ofcom's decision and it is right that our independent regulator has taken action against RT." Dorries added that the channel cast victims as the aggressors and the actual brutality of the Russians was not depicted on the screens.


The Global Fallouts: International implications of the Ukraine war
Australia
On 18 March, across the cities of Australia, Ukrainians and Russians unitedly protested against the war in Ukraine. The demonstrators said the war waged by Russia was Putin's war. As reported by Al Jazeera: "The protests are for networking, for organising, deciding what to do, allocating people to different directions but also for lifting one another's spirits." Many of the demonstrators were concerned about their relatives and family back in Ukraine.

On the same day, the Australian government announced sanctions on two Russian oligarchs linked to the mining industry. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said: "Australia has now added two billionaires with links to business interests in Australia, Oleg Deripaska, and Viktor Vekselberg." Payne added that Australia was closely working with international partners to increase pressure on Russia by sanctioning oligarchs. He further said Australia's actions were "in protest of Moscow's illegal, indefensible war against Ukraine."

South Africa
On 18 March, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa accused NATO of the war in Ukraine. He further said he would resist the West's calls to condemn Russia. He said: "The war could have been avoided if NATO had heeded the warnings from amongst its own leaders and officials over the years that its eastward expansion would lead to greater, not less, instability in the region." He referred to Russia's justification of the special operation in Ukraine.   

Africa
On 18 March, the US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, called out African states for their neutral position on the war in Ukraine. Earlier, at the UN General Assembly voting, 17 states abstained from voting while eight did not vote at all. She further said that there could be no neutral ground during a crisis and added that this was not a Cold War competition. She also mentioned that the US would support South Africa's mediation offer between Ukraine and Russia.

Western Firms
On 18 March, the BBC reported about a few Western firms who were not able to withdraw from Russia due to legal arrangements. Burger King stated that it would not be able to close its 800 stores as the franchise partners refused their closure. Restaurant Brands International president David Shear said: "We contacted the main operator of the business and demanded the suspension of Burger King restaurant operations in Russia…He has refused to do so."

Western Banks
On 18 March, Western banks' withdrawal from Russia caused a lot of complications as they now face risk-ridden retreat with anxious clients and staff. This comes as the West imposed sanctions on Russia, and the banks suspect them to remain long-term. As reported by Reuters, "Citigroup (CN), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) have committed to helping clients with the complex task of unwinding their Russian operations, whilst at the same time supporting the relocation of staff who wish to leave."

References: 

Ukraine's Zelensky calls on Germany to tear down Russian wall,”BBC, 18 March 2022
Russian oligarch Strzhalkovsky's super yacht stuck in Norway,” BBC, 18 March 2022
Ukraine war: Russia destroys aircraft repair plant near western city of Lviv,” BBC, 18 March 2022

Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call,” BBC, 18 March 2022
Ukraine crisis live,” The Guardian, 18 March 2022
Telephone conversation with President of France Emmanuel Macron,President of Russia, 18 March 2022
Concert marking the anniversary of Crimea’s reunification with Russia,” President of Russia, 18 March 2022
African nations' neutrality on Ukraine war under fire,” BBC, 18 March 2022
Jo Harper, “How Poland's business community is helping Ukrainians,” BBC, 18 March 2022 
Burger King Russia partner 'refuses' to shut shops,” BBC, 18 March 2022
Kevin Rawlinson, “Hoax caller claiming to be Ukrainian PM got through to UK defence secretary,The Guardian, 18 March 2022
Tom Ambrose and Samantha Lock, Biden to warn Xi Jinping China will face ‘costs’ if it helps Russia,” The Guardian, 18 March 2022
Zoe Osborne, “In Australia, Russians and Ukrainians unite against Putin’s war,” Al Jazeera, 18 March 2022
European Space Agency suspends joint Mars mission with Russia,” France24, 18 March 2022
Norway prepares for up to 100,000 Ukraine refugees, PM says,” Reuters, 18 March 2022
Australia sanctions Russian billionaires with mining industry links,” Reuters, 18 March 2022
Sinead Cruise and Huw Jones, “Retreat from Russia riddled with risks for Western banks,” Reuters, 18 March 2022
Poland to propose Ukraine peacekeeping mission at NATO summit, says PM,” Reuters, 18 March 2022
Russia Today: News channel RT's UK licence revoked by Ofcom,” BBC, 18 March 2022
 



IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

BULGARIA
Former Prime Minister detained on allegations of misusing EU funds
On 17 March, the head of the major opposition party GERB Boyko Borissov was detained as part of a police operation tied to the EU Public Prosecutor’s Office investigations. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office, headed by Laura Kovesi, targets serious fraud of EU funds. The office has received numerous complaints from Bulgaria and has initiated 120 investigations. Borissov’s lawyer Menko Menkov stated: “Borissov has not been charged for the time being. The police have searched his home. He has been taken to the headquarters of the national police where he will most likely be detained for 24 hours.” (“Bulgaria’s former PM Borissov detained after EU probes,” Reuters, 18 March 2022)

FRANCE
Corsica’s Yvan Colonna granted suspension of prison time
On 17 March, the French Judiciary suspended Yuvan Colanna’s life sentence “for medical reasons.” Yvan Colonna, who was imprisoned for the assassination of Corsica’s top regional official Claude Erignac in 1998, is now in a coma after being beaten on 02 March in jail by a fellow detainee serving time for terror offences. He was arrested in 2003 after a five-year search that found him living as a shepherd in the Corsican mountains. He, however, is still seen as a hero in the struggle for independence. Franck Elong Abe, who was jailed for terror-related offences, has been charged with another terror offence for the attack on Colonna. (“France suspends jail term of Corsican nationalist Yvan Colonna after clashes,” France24, 17 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The US to supply military equipment to the UK amid Ukraine War
On 17 March, the US State Department approved a USD 700 million missile defence system sale to the UK. The agreement comes amid a rise in requests from European countries to buy additional US-made weapons as the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the region’s security dynamics. The UK government wished to purchase ballistic missile defence radars and two command and control battle management and communications systems from Lockheed Martin Corp. The US State Department stated the sale would advance US foreign policy goals by “by improving the security of a NATO ally that is a force for political stability and economic progress in Europe.” (“UK gets approval to buy missile defences from US,” Reuters, 17 March 2022)

Europe increased Defence equipment purchases from the US
On 17 March, European governments proposed purchase orders of defence equipment from the US government and contractors. The inquiries respond to a more uncertain security environment in the region, with Germany, Sweden, and Denmark among those pledging significant increases in defence spending. The Pentagon has re-established a team to respond to the rising demand for sales and transfer of arms supplied by US defence companies to speed up government approval. The officials are also exploring ways to meet Ukraine’s needs, replenish US inventories and restore depleted stocks of allies and partners, and work with contractors on ways to “mitigate supply chain constraints and accelerate production timelines.” (Mike Stone, “Exclusive: Russian invasion spurs European demand for US drones, missiles,” Reuters, 17 March 2022)


17 March 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #151

War in Ukraine: Day 22

French Interior Minister to visit Corsica; European Tax Observatory suggests asset database; Intel to set up new silicon hub in Germany

Photo : Institute of War


War in Ukraine: Day 22
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Fourth Russian General killed
On 17 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned the death of another Russian General. This is the fourth Russian General to be killed in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Gen Mityaev was killed near Mariupol. As Ukraine’s military is outnumbered, its military intelligence team has been dedicated to targeting the Russian officer class to boost their own morale. On the same day, Ukraine handed over nine captured Russian soldiers as an exchange to secure the Mayor of the city of Melitopol.

Also, on 17 March, Zelenskyy stated that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia were ‘Fairly difficult’. His comments came as there have been multiple meetings with no decisive outcome. He further said: “First of all, negotiations are still in progress. The negotiations are fairly difficult…any war could be finished at the table of negotiations.”

Attack on a theatre in Mariupol
On 17 March, Deputy Mayor Sergei Orlov mentioned that the theatre was being used as a refugee centre hosting 1,000 to 1,200 people. Russian forces had bombed the theatre as they besieged the southern city of Mariupol. Mariupol’s city council said the troops had “plane dropped a bomb on a building where hundreds of peaceful Mariupol residents were hiding.” The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and the city Council accused Russia of a war crime as the word children were marked on the ground near the building to deter jets targeting the building.

Zelenskyy’s call on Germany
On 17 March, Zelenskyy thanked Germany for its support but mentioned a new Berlin wall being built. Zelenskyy’s wall was regarding German energy policy and business interests that had created that wall, BBC reported: “The controversial, now cancelled, Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 was “cement for that new wall” dividing Europe, he said. Germany’s continued reluctance to allow Ukraine into the European Union was “another brick” in that new wall.”



The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman's response on targeting the civilian population
On 17 March, Moscow claimed that the special military operations were not aimed at destabilising Ukraine's statehood. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "…this operation is not targeted at the civilian population. It does not pursue the aim of seizing the country's territory, ruining its statehood, or ousting the current president. We keep saying this again and again." Zakharova accused the Western media of forming a distorted picture of the events and called them a propaganda tool. 
 
Also, on 17 March, as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were scheduled to talk later, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "I don't know if they are already underway but they are expected [to take place] on various tracks." Peskov said the Ukrainian negotiators were not enthusiastic and further mentioned: "Our delegation, led by [Presidential Aide Vladimir] Medinsky, maintains contact with experts and government agencies, it's ready to work around the clock, it has made its willingness clear.…." 
 
On the same day, Russia's Finance Ministry stated it closely watched the bond payments. The Ministry said: "A payment order for the payment of coupon income on the Russian Federation's external bond loans … in the total amount of $117.2 million … was sent to a foreign correspondent bank on 14 March 2022 and has been executed." The government said the payment was paid in USD and added that Russia did not face any issues in paying its debts. 
 
Dmitry Medvedev's statements 
On 17 March, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev talked about how the collective West did not want Russia to become a strong power again, which could work towards its self-interests and protect its citizens. He said: "They have an urgent need to corner our country, bring it to its knees and reform it based on the Anglo-Saxon world's blueprints, to make it weak and obedient, or better yet, to tear it to pieces." However, Medvedev further stated that Russia was now strong enough to "…put all of its brazen enemies in their place." 
 
On the same day, Medvedev also dismissed the speculations that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit the zone of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. He said: "No plans for any such trips…All will take place in due time." A journalist further asked if Putin would visit the frontline the way Joseph Stalin did during World War II in 1943; Medvedev replied: "After all, these are different situations."
 
Responding to the ICJ ruling asking Russia to suspend Ukraine offensive
Also, on 17 March, the Kremlin rejected the ruling by the International Court of Justice as it ordered Russia to "immediately suspend" its offensive on Ukraine. As reported by The Moscow Times, "Peskov echoed Moscow's stance during hearings earlier this month that the ICJ has no jurisdiction because Kyiv's request fell outside the 1948 Genocide Convention on which it based the case." However, the ICJ stated that it had jurisdiction in the case, and it argued that Moscow had falsely created allegations about genocide in Ukraine's Donbas region. 



The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 


The US
On 17 March, the US launched an international task force that will target the Russian Oligarchs and seize their assets. This task force includes Australia, the UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the European Commission. According to the US Treasury Department: “In the last three weeks alone, information provided by US law enforcement to foreign partners has helped detain several vessels controlled by sanctioned individuals and entities.” The seized ship value goes to hundreds of millions of dollars.

On 17 March, US President Joe Biden and Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin held a virtual call to discuss the aid provided to Ukraine and plan on furthering the cost on Russia for invading Ukraine.
 
NATO
On 17 March, in a news conference, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed the reporters on Russia’s war in Ukraine. He appreciated the efforts of the Kyiv forces and Germany’s action in providing military and humanitarian support to Ukraine. Stoltenberg said: “NATO has a responsibility to prevent this war from escalating further, we cannot take peace and security for granted.”
 
Poland
On 17 March, on the same line as Biden, the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister agreed on characterising the Russian leader as a “war criminal.” He said: “The Kremlin believed the government of Ukraine will evaporate somehow. That was not the case. Ukrainians are very brave defending their land and their values, their democracy, the country they built, they've been building for the last 30 years. So now Mr Putin decided to hit civilian infrastructure.”

The UK
On 17 March, the UK’s Ministry of Defense revealed that Russia’s military is opting for older weapons with lesser precision to cause causalities. Another prediction kept forward by the Ministry was that Russia’s usage of older weapons is not by choice but because of its failure to strengthen its military. Apart from this, the UK Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, confirmed the deployment of the Sky Sabre missile system and 100 troops in Poland for three months. The decision comes as NATO further to securitize its eastern front due to recent Russian military advancement into the West of Ukraine. According to the UK government, Sky Sabre is “a state-of-the-art air defence system” which can hit a tennis ball at the speed of sound. With the UK deploying its air-defence systems, Poland will be able to protect itself from missiles and bombs launched by Russia.
 
The EU
On 17 March, European Space Agency (ESA) ended the joint Mars programme with the Russian space agency, Roscosmos. The decision comes in support of Ukraine, and with the announcement, the operations on the ExoMars rover mission will remain an impossibility. ESA said: “While recognising the impact on scientific exploration of space, Esa is fully aligned with the sanctions imposed on Russia by its member states.”
 
The humanitarian crisis: The refugee challenge
On 17 March, continued shelling by Russia in Mariupol has forced more than 30,000 people to flee away Ukraine. As estimated, 1.95 million people have left Ukraine and moved into Poland since the war. On the same, Hungary’s Prime Minister, Victor Orban, has also expressed fear of expecting 900,000 refugees to flood into the country.
 
Apart from Poland and Hungary, 460,000 refugees have drifted into Romania. The refugees have been observed to use the Black Sea Coast to escape from Russia and move into other European countries. Due to this, the Black Sea passage has gained importance as it serves as a strategic point for refugees to escape.
 
On 17 March, Belgium royals King Philippe and Queen Mathilde have confirmed using the two houses owned by the Royal Trust to host three Ukrainian families. As far as Belgium is concerned, close to 10,000 Ukrainians have registered for international protection and permit to work for one year. The Authorities expect 200,000 Ukrainians to reach Belgium.


 
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

UNSC
On 17 March, UNSC announced its plans to hold an emergency meeting to address the rising humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. The meeting will include, the US, Britain, France, Ireland, Norway and Albania. The UN agency, UNESCO, has come forward to supply protective equipment to Ukrainian Journalists to safeguard them from conflict zones. According to the director-general of UNESCO, Audrey Azoulay: “Every day, journalists and media workers are risking their lives in Ukraine to provide life-saving information to local populations and inform the world of the reality of this war. We are determined to support and protect them in every way possible.”
 
ICJ
On 17 March, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) passed the order asking Russia to stop its military attacks on Ukraine. It urged for immediate suspension of military activities in Ukraine, and President Zelensky claimed the judgement to be a victory.
 
OECD
On 17 March, OECD warned that the war between Ukraine and Russia would cut down the global economic growth rate by one per cent. It predicts that the effect of war can push Russia into a “deep recession.” The impact of the war raises concerns, as both countries are responsible for producing raw materials. Hence with the products becoming unavailable, the prices easily shoot up, affecting the global economic growth.
 
India
On 17 March, India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. Will likely shift its fuel imports from Russia to the Middle East and the US. It is done to avoid being charged under Western sanctions.
 
Panama
On 16 March, Panama’s Maritime Authority reported that three of its flagged ships were hit by Russian missiles in the Black Sea. It did not report any causalities but the material was damaged.
 
Canada
The price of the commodities has increased due to Russia’s invasion, thereby pushing the inflation rate close to six per cent. This has made the central bank increase the interest rate further.
 
References
Russia’s special operation is not aimed at ruining Ukraine’s statehood — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 17 March 2022. 
Russian, Ukrainian negotiators to continue talks on Thursday — Kremlin,” TASS, 17 March 2022. 
Medvedev: Cornering us won’t work, Russia strong enough to put brazen foes in their place,” TASS, 17 March 2022. 
No plans for visiting zone of Russia’s operation in Ukraine on Putin’s schedule — Kremlin,” TASS, 17 March 2022.
Kremlin Rejects Top UN Court's Order to Halt Ukraine Invasion,” The Moscow Times, 17 March 2022. 
Russia Makes Bond Payment, Avoids Default – Finance Ministry,” The Moscow Times, 17 March 2022.
Ben Tobias, “War in Ukraine: Fourth Russian general killed - Zelensky,” BBC, 17 March 2022.
Hugo Bachega, “Russia attacks theatre sheltering civilians, Ukraine says,” BBC, 17 March 2022. ‘‘Fairly difficult’: Zelensky weighs in on Russia-Ukraine talks,” TASS, 17 March 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 17 March 2022
Panama says three ships hit by Russian missiles in the Black Sea since start of Ukraine invasion,” Reuters, 17 March 2022
Julie Gordon and Fergal Smith, “Canadian inflation seen peaking at or above 6%; more rate hikes in the cards,” Reuters, 17 March 2022
Mayank Bhardwaj, “EXCLUSIVE India acts to seize gap in wheat export market left by Ukraine war,” Reuters, 16 March 2022 


 


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Interior Minister to visit Corsica amid protests for autonomy
On 16 March, the French government stated that it was ready to grant the Mediterranean island of Corsica “autonomy” to ease the tensions in the region. French Interior Minister Gerald Darmamin, ahead of his visit to the island, mentioned: “We are ready to go as far as autonomy,” but “there can be no dialogue while violence is going on. A return to calm is an indispensable condition.” Luc Bernardini of Core in Fronte, a nationalist group in Corsica, resented the move and stated: “If he’s only coming to do us, or himself, a favour, our response will be the same as that of the last days on the streets. The Corsican people will say, ‘No.’” (“France ready to discuss ‘autonomy’ for Corsica, minister says,” Reuters, 16 March 2022)

THE UK
Aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliff’s passport returned
On 15 March, the UK stated it returned the passport of British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliff. Iranian Revolutionary Guards arrested her at Tehran Airport on 03 April 2016. She was accused of plotting to overthrow the regime, which she denied. Her family believes she was being held as a political prisoner until a debt between Britain and Iran could be settled. However, the UK and Iranian governments denied the connection between the debt and the case; Iran’s state media in 2021 reported that she would be freed once the debt was paid. (“UK-Iranian Zaghari-Ratcliffe gets her British passport back-UK lawmaker,” Reuters, 15 March 2022)

REGIONAL
European Tax Observatory suggests asset database to combat financial crime
On 16 March, the European Tax Observatory, an independent think-tank, advised the EU to establish an asset database. This would aid in tracking the proprietors of assets owned by shell firms and improve the efficiency of EU sanctions on Russian oligarchs. The report stated: “A comprehensive database tracking where and by whom wealth is held could increase the efficiency of targeted sanctions.” An EU task force may gather, cross-check, and analyse all accessible information on affluent individuals’ money and assets held in EU countries beyond a certain threshold. This might pave the way for a permanent European Asset Registry to collect wealth data from all asset kinds and utilise it to combat financial crime. (“Think tank calls for EU database to help trace oligarchs’ assets,” Reuters, 17 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Intel to set up new silicon hub in Germany
On 15 March, US Tech Giant Intel set up its first phase of a ten-year investment plan for EUR 80 billion. The initiative focuses on researching and producing semiconductor chips, which are crucial components in computers and electronic devices. The city of Magdeburg in Germany was chosen to set up the new hub to create “Two first of their kind semiconductors.” CEO of Intel Pat Gelsinger said: “Our planned investments are a major step both for Intel and for Europe. The EU Chips Act will empower private companies and governments to work together to drastically advance Europe’s position in the semiconductor sector.” (“Intel announces multibillion investment plan for Europe,” Deutsche Welle, 15 March 2022)


16 March 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #150

War in Ukraine: Day 21

Europe accelerates clean energy missions; Meta fined EUR 17 million for data breach; Germany releases new budget amid war in Ukraine

Photo : Bernd von Jutrczenka/Pool via Reuters


War in Ukraine: Day 21
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address to the US Congress, Attacks in Kyiv, and a derailed evacuation


Ukraine President addresses the US Congress
On 16 March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the US Congress. In the address, he highlighted three key points. One, he urged on sanctioning of politicians and requested the American companies to withdraw business from Russia. He expressed his gratitude for US President Joe Biden’s aid supply to Ukraine. Two, he brought back the incidents of Pearl Harbour and 9/11, comparing the situation with that of Ukraine’s present day. He also emphasized on jet fighters and “advanced air defense systems.” Three, he appealed to President Joe Biden to show up as leader of the world and fight for Europe. He said: “Peace in your country no longer depends only on you and your people. President Biden, you are the leader of your nation. I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means being the leader of peace.”

Apart from the address, Zelensky tweeted announcing the linking of the European electricity grid with Ukraine to counter the power outage due to Russian shelling. He also called out the senior Russian officials to quit their post and to stand against the invasion of Ukraine. He said: “If you remain in office, if you do not oppose the war, the international community will deprive you of everything…Everything you have earned over the years. This is already being done.”

Ukraine-Russia Talks
On 16 March, Advisor to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the offer made by Russia on adopting “Austrian style” neutrality. The negotiator of the process said that the model should be in terms of Ukraine with “verified security guarantees.” On the other side, the Kremlin spokesperson expressed interest to sign a peace deal to hold an army and navy along the borders of Austria and Sweden.

Ukraine’s military advance
On 16 March, Ukraine’s armed forces released a report on launching attacks on Russian groups involved in occupying territories. The report stated that, despite Russia targeting bombs at populated cites, the troops have failed to go further in cities Donestk, Luhansk and Mykolaiv. Similarly, UK Defense Ministry said: “..it is likely Russia is struggling to conduct offensive operations in the face of sustained Ukraine resistance.”  Kyiv’s Interior Minister announced the killing of the fourth Russian General in the fight at Mariupol, a similar announcement was made by President Zelensky on death of another Russian General. Till now Russia has engaged 20 Major Generals in mission in Ukraine.

Attacks continue
On 16 March, the Ukraine armed forces announced the rockets launched by Russia, while a group of civilians were being moved from Zaporizhzhya. They reported firing of BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system on civilians at 13:30 GMT.

As of 16 March, Russian troops have advanced their attacks to Kyiv, Mariupol, and Kharkiv. Although Russia claimed to have captured the Kherson region and Odesa, there have been no ground developments.

On 16 March, a 35-hour curfew was declared in Kyiv. While the three Prime Ministers met in Ukraine, Russia continued shelling Ukrainian cities through its artillery and warplanes.

According to recent reports, a 12-storey suburban building in Kyiv was targetted, injuring two and resulting in evacuation of 35 people from the block. Apart from these, a series of explosions were recorded in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. In Mariupol, close to 400 patients along with doctors have been held in capture in hospital. With the attacks furthering in Mariupol, the living possibility has narrowed, risking the lives of 400,000 people to go without water, electricity, gas, no entry for aid and no exit from the place.

Evacuation
On 16 March, Ukrainian Presidential Adviser reported that close to 30,000 people have been evacuated from various Ukrainian cities using the humanitarian corridor. Most of the civilians belonged to the city of Mariupol and Sumy. The evacuation took place in midst of Russian blockades of buses and private cars.

On 16 March, students from Nigeria have been reported to be cornered by Russian forces in southern Ukraine city, Kherson. As per the report, more than 100 African students have been stranded and have requested the Nigerian government for rescue. The Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Geoffery Onyeama had previously said that the ministry was in contact with Ukraine and Russia to evacuate students.

Other Developments
On 16 March, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that Ukraine has incurred more USD 500 billion damages from the start of the Russian invasion and asserted that Russia must provide relief to restore Ukraine post-war.



The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

On 16 March, during a broadcasted government meeting, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called out that the efforts taken by the West in the Ukraine war will not help acquire global dominance or separate Russia. On the sanctions imposed by the US on Central Bank, he countered by stating that Russia had sufficient financial resources to run its economy. On the special military operation launched by Russia, President Putin said that the operation was proceeding successfully and criticised Ukraine for engaging in ethnic cleansing in the Donbas region. He said: “A massive assault on Donbas and then on Crimea was only a matter of time and our Armed Forces thwarted those plans.”
 
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stating: “they say that the negotiations are not easy for obvious reasons. But nevertheless, there is some hope of reaching a compromise,”
 
On 16 March, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency Head said that while Russia’s position in the world is being defined, Ukraine’s fate will be decided soon. His speech highlighted the sovereignty aspect and stressed that Russia will not compensate when it came to sovereignty. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian troops assisted in the evacuation of 36,000 civilians who were found trapped in the west of Ukraine. The Ministry also released a video of the destruction of Ukraine’s weapons and ammunition depot in Chernigov region. In the statement released: “The Russian Armed Forces’ artillery unit conducted a fire mission, carrying out a pinpoint strike that destroyed a combined depot site containing missile and artillery weapons, as well as up to 20 pieces of weapons and military equipment.”



The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 


EU leaders in Kyiv
On 15 March, leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia visited Kyiv by train to extend their ‘unequivocal support’ to Ukraine. As the talks took place, explosives could be heard across the western part of the capital as fighting continued. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said: “The main goal of our visit and the main message of our mission is to say to our Ukrainian friends that they are not alone.”

Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński mentioned: “I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - Nato, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory.” Prime Minister Petr Fiala further talked about a broad package of support for the citizens of Ukraine. At the same time, the EU officials in Brussels were nervous about the leader’s meeting, as other members were not notified until a few minutes before the trip was announced.

Poland
On 15 March, with the invasion continuing and the number of refugees increasing, Poland was worried about a possible spillover of Russian aggression. The BBC reported: “In terms of security, alarm bells are also ringing. Over the weekend, Russia bombed a Ukrainian military base in Yavoriv, just 16 km (10 miles) from the Polish border.” Poland has now become a critical link for the West and Russia as it is the easternmost flank of the NATO alliance.

The US
On 15 March, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution supporting a war crime investigation on Putin. The resolution was headed by Senator Lindsey Graham and was passed by a voice note after negotiations. Graham said: “The next step for me is to work with our British allies and hopefully others to create an intel cell that will make available to the public Russian military units engaged in war crimes and start naming their commanders. A name-and-shame campaign is in the making.”

On 16 March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated: “One way or the other, Ukraine will be there and at some point Putin won’t.” Although his comments came as the US was working towards limiting the war, he added: “working as hard as we can to limit, to stop, to put an end to this war of choice that Russia is committing.”

At the same time, on 16 March, according to the UN data released, the US had only accepted a few hundred refugees. US President Joe Biden said the US was ready to accept refugees but further mentioned that Europe should still be the primary destination for refugees. In response to Biden's comments, Representative Raul Ruiz said: “The crisis could overwhelm the countries currently hosting many of the Ukrainian refugees, and the United States must lead in the effort to assist these countries in helping the vulnerable escape war.”

The UK
On 15 March, the UK government announced 370 new sanctions against Russia, including on Putin. The UK had already implemented a few sanctions earlier concerning trade restrictions and an additional 35 per cent tariff on vodka. However, this time the government fast-tracked the new sanctions as it had received criticism for being too slow. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We are holding them to account for their complicity in Russia’s crimes in Ukraine…Working closely with our allies, we will keep increasing the pressure on Putin and cut off funding for the Russian war machine.”

On 16 March, the Church of England put pressure on the French energy giant, TotalEnergies, for their continuing services in Moscow. The church said it would reconsider its shareholdings in the company as they had not withdrawn from Russia. The church stated: “in response to the attack on Ukraine by Russia and supporting the sanctions announced by the UK and other governments.” The church’s letter came after French NGOs warned to take legal action against TotalEnergies over their role in possible human rights abuses.

Germany
On 15 March, Germany’s cyber security agency BSI warned about the anti-virus software developed by Russia-based Kaspersky Lab. BSI said the software posed a severe risk of a successful hacking attack. The BSI alleged that the Russians could coerce the company to hack into IT systems and hack the server to launch cyber attacks.

Lithuania
On 16 March, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda said that the country was willing to stop importing oil and gas from Russia. This was aligned with the EU countries planning to tighten penalties on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. However, Lithuania received 63 per cent of its oil imports from Russia in 2019, and in response, Nauseda said: “It would create some problems, but those problems would not be critical.”



The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Singapore
On 16 March, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan talked about the war in Ukraine and hoped China would play a critical role in ending the war. He said: “The big issue now is what decisions and actions China takes…I hope they will assert their influence with Chinese characteristics, which means quietly and discreetly, but effectively.” Singapore played a crucial role against Russia’s war on Ukraine as its banks sanctioned Mosow’s entities and trade financing.

China
On 16 March, China accused Taiwan of taking advantage of the war in Ukraine. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said: “The Democratic Progressive Party authorities are using the Ukraine issue to validate their existence and piggyback on a hot issue.” China’s government called on Taiwan for its humanitarian aid for Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia.

Western brands
On 16 March, a report by the BBC talked about how a few western brands could not easily withdraw from Russia. Certain brands like Marks and Spencer, Burger King, and hotel groups Marriott and Accor were restricted by complex franchise deals that prevented them from withdrawing. BBC reported: “…brands are locked into legal franchise agreements, making it difficult for them to remove their name from Russia’s High Streets and shopping malls.”

NATO
On 16 March, at the emergency NATO defence meeting in Brussels, the US and the alliance pledged their support to continue fighting off Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “We need to reset our military posture for this new reality.” Stoltenberg’s comments came as the alliance was looking to reset its own security to adapt to the “new reality.”

International Court of Justice
On 16 March, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said it would rule on the Russian invasion lawsuit. The ruling would be the first since Russia invaded Ukraine, the judgement would be binding; however, speculation arose if Moscow would abide by it. Russia earlier had claimed it was acting in self-defence and justified its invasion. The session comes as Russia intensified its attacks on residential buildings in Kyiv and the war's displacement of about three million people.

References
BBC Live,” BBC, 16 March 2022
Russia’s military operation in Ukraine develops successfully, goes to plan — Putin,” TASS, 16 March 2022
Russian forces knocked out communications, reconnaissance nodes in Vinnitsa — ministry,” TASS, 14 March 2022
Kiev’s attack against Donetsk with Tochka-U Mar 14 was bloody terror act — Putin,” TASS, 14 March 2022
Russian military destroys weapons depot in Ukraine’s Chernigov region,” TASS, 14 March 2022
Ukraine war: European leaders risk train ride to meet Zelensky,” BBC, 16 March 2022
Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin, “‘Europe stands with you’: EU leaders vow support for Ukraine during Kyiv visit,” The Guardian, 16 March 2022. 
Russia-Ukraine latest: Peace talks ‘realistic,’ but more time needed, says Zelensky,” The New York Post, 16 March 2022
Ted Hesson, “Explainer: Why isn't the U.S. accepting more Ukrainian refugees?,” Reuters, 16 March 2022
Germany issues hacking warning for users of Russian anti-virus software Kaspersky,” Reuters, 16 March 2022
Victoria Craig, “Lithuania threatens to stop using Russian oil and gas,” BBC, 16 March 2022
Church of England pressures TotalEnergies over Russia business,” BBC, 16 March 2022
Katya Adler, “Ukraine war: Fears Russian aggression could spill into Poland,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Jordain Carney, “Senate passes resolution supporting Putin war crime probe,” The Hill, 15 March 2022
Ukraine war: Russia's ex-president among 370 new UK sanctions targets,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Michael Race, “The Western brands unable to leave Russia,” BBC, 15 March 2022 
Robin Emmott and Ingrid Melander, “NATO vows more help for Ukraine,” Reuters, 16 March 2022.

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

GERMANY
Fresh debts to be incurred in the new budget
On 15 March, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany's upcoming budget plans for 2022, which is set to incur USD 108.8 billion in debt. The current draft's key points have been rendered obsolete due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, the budget does not account for the impact of the conflict in the region, surging energy prices, and the costs of assisting refugees fleeing from Ukraine. The Finance Ministry has prepared a "core budget," which the federal cabinet is expected to approve on Wednesday before sending it to the parliament. It allocates EUR 457.6 billion in overall spending. In addition, the government decided to create a separate fund for military up-gradation. The Chancellor earlier announced this, and the fund would be raised through loans. Nevertheless, it will not be included in the budget to increase the debt ratio further. (Sabine Kinkartz, “Germany's massive budget increase: Who foots the bill?,” Deutsche Welle, 15 March 2022)

IRELAND 
Meta fined EUR 17 million for data breach 
On 16 March, Ireland’s data regulator stated that it would be imposing a EUR 17 million fine on Meta platforms. The country’s Data Protection Commissioner said: “Meta Platforms failed to have in place appropriate technical and organisational measures which would enable it to readily demonstrate the security measures that it implemented in practice to protect EU users’ data.” The decision came after an inquiry in 2018 on the 12 data breach notifications, which were then submitted to the regulator. The Data Protection Commissioner has many other ongoing investigations into Meta; Dublin regulates the internet giants as their European Headquarters are based in Ireland. (“Irish watchdog fines Meta 17 million euros for data breach,” Reuters, 16 March 2022)

RUSSIA
Central Bank suspends purchase of Gold
On 15 March, the Russian central bank suspended gold purchases from banks to fulfil the rising household demand for precious metals. This is the latest attempt by the government to control the adverse effects of Western sanctions. In a statement, the bank said: "Currently, households' demand for buying physical gold in bars has increased, driven, in particular, by the abolition of value-added tax on these operations." VTB Bank analysts said the central bank's move appeared reasonable, considering that the loss of access to USD 300 billion in reserves which meant gold's share of accessible reserves had climbed to 40 per cent from 21 per cent.. (“Russian c.bank halts purchases of gold from banks to meet household demand,” Reuters, 15 March 2022) 

ENVIRONMENT
Europe accelerates clean energy missions
On 15 March, Europe's high dependency on Russia’s gas has accelerated its transition to cleaner energy sources. The EU expects to save about one-third of its gas this year by reducing fossil fuel demand. It would reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by installing solar panels, wind turbines, making buildings more energy-efficient, and installing heat pumps. European Director of the Regulatory Assistance Project Jan Rosenow recommended an overhaul of permit processes for renewable energy to help decarbonize the power sector. They further suggested a change in subsidies from gas boilers to heat pumps, and an information campaign to encourage energy conservation at home. (Ajit Niranjan, “Russia-Ukraine war risks greater carbon pollution despite boost to clean energy,” Deutsche Welle, 15 March 2022)


15 March 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #149

War in Ukraine: Day 20

Germany to receive a fleet of F-35’s; EU to draft rules on cryptocurrencies; Germany’s UBA report on increase in greenhouse gases

Photo : en.kremlin.ru


War in Ukraine: Day 20
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
On 14 March, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal urged the Council of Europe to act against Russia and expel them from the human rights body. He said: "The right to life is one of the key fundamental rights, and today at the centre of Europe this right is being violated every minute and every second." Russia had already announced its withdrawal as the council had stripped its voting rights.

Also, on 14 March, Ukraine's parliament mentioned how the Russian forces were blowing up explosives near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. They said the troops were disposing of their ammunition in front of the nuclear plant. PM Shmyhal also claimed that Russia was forcefully enlisting people from Crimea to serve among the Russian armed forces. He said: "Today the Russian government is mobilising the residents of Crimea to the armed forces of Russia, forcing people who are to be protected by the Fourth Geneva Convention to serve in the armed forces of the enemy state."

On 15 March, a series of Russian missile strikes hit residential buildings in Kyiv. The attacks caused a massive fire, and emergency services were called to rescue the people occupying the building. Two people were killed in the attacks. The shock waves of the attacks had also damaged the metro station's entry gate, which was used as a bomb shelter.

On 15 March, Generals of the Ukrainian army defending Kyiv talked about the topography and the terrain and how it could slow Russia's advancing troops. The generals mentioned how the rivers and peat bogs acted as natural defence systems. However, they mentioned that the capital was still vulnerable to missiles. Gen Andriy Kryschenko said: "Around the city, there are many small rivers that flow into the Dnieper and there are many peat bogs, so that means the area is not suitable for large-scale movement of troops."

The Generals further talked about the advantages of Kyiv being an industrial city. They mentioned that they could produce items of fortification such as sandbags, concrete blocks, and anti-tank obstacles. The destruction of strategic bridges had also slowed down the advancing Russian armies.

Also, on 15 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the Russian soldiers to surrender as Moscow faced massive losses in its invasion. He further said: "I know that you want to survive," and offered soldiers surrendering to be treated as people. Zelenskyy also said he was "grateful to those Russians who do not stop trying to convey the truth." He also paid his tribute to Marina Ovsyannikova, the journalist who had bravely interrupted a Russian state TV news anchor holding an anti-war sign.

Later, on the same day, Zelenskyy spoke about NATO and said: "the strongest alliance in the world," but "some of the members of this alliance are hypnotised by Russian aggression." He further expressed his anguish on NATO's refusal to implement a no-fly zone. He further addressed the Russians, saying: "We hear your conversations in the intercepts, we hear what you really think about this senseless war, about this disgrace and about your state.

Concerning Mariupol, on 15 March, Deutsche Welle talked about how the situation in Mariupol was after the city was besieged. The article stated: "As of 13:00 pm (1100 GMT), more than 160 private cars have managed to leave Mariupol on the road to Berdyansk." According to Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, authorities were trying to open nine humanitarian corridors to evacuate citizens and help them get aid. The city had experienced two weeks of shelling and blockages as more than 2,500 people have been killed in the city since the invasion began.
 
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

On 14 March, Russian Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov spoke about Russia's special military operations in Ukraine. He said: "Russia has a sufficient potential for conducting the special military operation in Ukraine. The operation is proceeding by the original plan and will be completed on time and in full." Peskov's comments came as Western countries claimed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not succeed as planned.

On 14 March, Concerning the return of Meta products of Facebook and Instagram, Dmitry Peskov said it was unlikely for now. His response was in reaction to how Meta had provisions for Ukrainians inciting violence against Russia, its citizens, and service members. Peskov stated that Instagram "indirectly admits that we are talking about such decisions when it says that on the territory of Ukraine such methods are allowed, yet somewhere else it is still inadmissible."

On 15 March, with Peskov's statements of an improbable return of Meta, small businesses in Russia are feeling the heat. Many small businesses and entrepreneurs who were dependent on the app to reach out to Moscow and worldwide now seemed to have found themselves in a fix after Russia banned Instagram. An avid user of Instagram, Golov said: "The other platforms all either charge money, or are not very good…he has tried with little success to migrate his business to Telegram."
Also, on 15 March, Peskov talked about the changes needed in the format of negotiations. He mentioned: "Of course, the negotiations may be desirable again because the situation has drastically changed. New details and emphasis emerged." Peskov's comment aligned with what Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on 12 March regarding the changes in the situation and how the previously proposed security guarantees were no longer valid.

On 14 March, President Vladimir Putin held a telephonic conversation with Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. The two leaders discussed the operations in Donbas. Putin mentioned how a missile attack by the Ukrainians at Donetsk central part had resulted in numerous civilian casualties. On the same day, Putin also held a telephonic conversation with Luxembourg's Prime Minister Xavier Bettel. The two leaders discussed Russia's special military operations to protect the Donbas region.

On the same day, Russia accused the West of pushing it into an "artificial default" using sanctions. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said: "The freezing of foreign currency accounts of the Bank of Russia and of the Russian government can be regarded as the desire of a number of foreign countries to organise an artificial default that has no real economic grounds." His statements come as Russia was likely to default on its loans from the IMF. He further asked if Russia could make its payments in rubles.
 
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe 

Upcoming Meets
On 15 March, three Prime Ministers from European Union have been scheduled to meet President Zelensky in Kyiv. The meet’s significance is to show the EU’s united stand and provide support for Ukraine. The US announced the meeting of President Joe Biden, NATO, and EU leaders, which is planned to take place on 24 March in Brussels. The meeting will focus on security, defence, and external relations aspects.
 
The US
On 15 March, a meeting was held between the US and China’s top officials. The meeting was aimed to “exercise restraint.” According to Yang Jiechi, “All parties should exercise maximum restraint, protect civilians and prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis.” The US was blamed for China for showing a positive sign to Russia on the supply of military weapons. China, in turn, denied the allegations, and the representative said China prioritises its “Security concerns.”
 
NATO
On 15 March, the US had previously raised concerns about Russia carrying out a “false flag” operation by using chemicals. On similar terms, in a press conference, NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia’s claims on Ukraine’s involvement in chemical weapons were illogical, at the same time concerning as it provides the possibility of Russia to use such weapons. He said: “We are concerned that Moscow could stage a 'false flag' operation, possibly including chemical weapons.” On the question raised by a Ukrainian journalist on the absence of NATO’s direct military involvement in Ukraine, Stoltenberg answered staunchly that NATO would step against Russia only when one of its 30 members are under attack. Ukraine being a non-member, NATO will not directly engage but has assured help through the supply of military additional installation of naval, air and cyber forces.
 
The UK
On 15 March, the UK announced a new refugee scheme, where its citizens, upon hosting the Ukrainian refugees, will get GBP 350 per month as allowance. After the announcement, more than 100,000 people have come forward to register. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his trip to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, aiming to boost oil and gas production. The move comes as Europe aims to reduce its oil dependency with Russia. He said: “Vladimir Putin over the last years has been like a pusher feeding an addiction in Western countries to his hydrocarbons, to his oil and gas, we need to get ourselves off that addiction.”
 
On 15 March, the UK imposed a new set of sanctions on 370 individuals in Russia, including the former President. The sanctions target Putin’s spokespersons, Minister of Defense, Editor-in-Chief of RT channel, and others. Apart from the individual sanctions, trade restrictions were mandated on goods worth GBP 900 million and 35 per cent import tax on Vodka.
 
On 15 March, UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly pointed out that as Russia’s attacks are not proceeding as planned, civilians are being turned targets. He also mentioned that the defence of Ukraine is stronger, which is disturbing Russia and Putin to the target public.
 
The EU
On 15 March, the EU revealed its fourth set of sanctions banning the export of luxury goods to Russia, including cars and jewellery. Apart from the export ban, it also levied import restrictions on Russia’s steel products and investment in its energy industry.
 
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

From West Asia
On 15 March, as part of Turkey’s mediatory steps, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced to send Foreign Minister to Russia and Ukraine to bring back negotiations on ceasefire. Apart from Turkey, Russia has warned the West on imposing sanctions. It said that counter threatened the West saying the sanction might affect its interest in Iran’s nuclear deal. Russia’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “..the sanctions must be taken into account, this is a new aspect that cannot be ignored, that must be taken into account.”
 
From India
On 14 March, India was the top importer of agriculture fertiliser and major imports of four to five million came from Russia and Belarus. With the ongoing war, sanctions from the West and blockade in shipping routes, the imports have shifted from Russia to Canada, Israel and Jordan. From the given places, majorly potash will be imported, for other forms of fertilizers such as nitrogen and phosphate, Saudi Arabia and Morocco have been set as targets by India.
 
From Canada
On 15 March, Canada announced 15 sanctions on Russian individuals who were close to Putin. The sanctioning came ahead of President Zelensky’s address in Canada. According to the Foreign Minister: “President Putin made the choice to further his illegal and unjustifiable invasion, and he can also make the choice to end it by immediately ending the senseless violence and withdrawing his forces.” Apart from this, Russia has also banned Canada’s Trudeau and Biden to enter the country.
 
From Africa
On 15 March, the statistics office reported that inflation in Nigeria had increased by 0.1 per cent in February due to an upsurge in transport and other costs due to fuel deficiency. In the list of global effects due to the Ukraine war on financial markets, trade and commodity prices, the African continent is at a vulnerable point. The disruption in grain imports from Ukraine's rising crude oil prices are expected to down African economies. According to the Head of the National Bureau of Statistics, “There are so many dimensions that the (Ukraine) crisis would be affecting the economy ... so that even the projections made for growth for 2022 may remain a mirage.”
 
References: 
Jeremy Bowen, “Ukraine war: Kyiv terrain will slow Russian troops, say Ukraine generals,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Talks on Russia's security guarantees with US, NATO unlikely in previous format — Kremlin,” TASS, 15 March 2022
Russia Says West Trying to Push it Into Default,” The Moscow Times, 15 March 2022
Felix Light and Jake Cordell, “For Russia's Small Businesses, Instagram Ban Deals a Huge Blow,” The Moscow Times, 15 March 2022
Ukraine war: Zelensky urges Russian troops to surrender,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Jon Henley, Martin Farrer, Isobel Koshiw and Lorenzo Tondo, “Russia-Ukraine war: early morning strikes hit Kyiv hours before peace talks,” The Guardian, 15 March 2022
Russia’s operation in Ukraine proceeds according to plan — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 14 March 2022
Despite ploy to duck hate speech scandal, Meta unlikely to return to Russia, Kremlin says,” TASS, 14 March 2022
Telephone conversation with Prime Minister of Luxembourg Xavier Bettel,” Kremlin.ru, 14 March 2022
Telephone conversation with Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett,” Kremlin.ru, 14 March 2022
Ukraine’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal has urged the Council of Europe to expel Russia from its ranks in what would be a historic first at the human-rights body,” The Guardian, 14 March 2022
Martin Farrer, Lois Beckett, Joanna Walters , Léonie Chao-Fong, Tom Ambrose , and Samantha Lock, “Biden considers travel to Europe – as it happened,” T The Guardian, 14 March 2022
Monir Ghaedi, “What do we know about the situation in Mariupol?,” Deutsche Welle, 15 March 2022.
BBC Live” BBC, 15 March 2022
Canada imposes sanctions on 15 Russian officials,” Reuters, 15 March 2022 
Russia bars entry to Biden and Canada's Trudeau,” Reuters, 15 March 2022
India boosts fertiliser imports from Canada, Israel as Russian supply disrupted,” The Hindu, 15 March 2022
Turkish foreign minister to travel to Russia, Ukraine for talks, says Erdogan,” Reuters, 15 March 2022
Kremlin emphasizes anti-Russian sanctions must be considered when discussing Iran deal,” TASS, 15 March 2022
Hard economic times in East Africa as commodity prices go through the roof,” The East African, 14 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

GERMANY
US-built F-35 jets set to replace Tornado fleet
On 13 March, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht initiated the purchase of thirty-five F-35 fighter jets from the US to replace its Tornado fleet. The military upgrade was in response to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. As a first step, the Ministry will submit a formal request to the US government to purchase the fighters to gain clarity on delivery timelines and options for cooperation in training and maintenance. The announcement comes after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the country would increase military spending to more than two per cent of GDP in response to evolving security challenges in Europe. (“Germany to buy US F-35 stealth fighters,” Deutsche Welle, 14 March 2022)

Federal environment agency reports an increase in greenhouse gases
On 15 March, a report by the German environment agency UBA mentioned an increase of greenhouse gas emissions by five per cent in 2021. However, even though the report registered an increase from the 2020 levels. When compared to the 1990s, the levels were 39 per cent lower. As reported by Reuters: “Germany overshot its targets in 2020 to cut emissions by 40% compared with 1990 levels, reducing them by almost 41% as emissions fell because of a sharp reduction in economic activity during the pandemic.” The report also found that industry and agriculture met their targets on controlling CO2 emissions while transport and buildings exceeded theirs. (Markus Wacket, “EXCLUSIVE Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2021 - environment agency,” Reuters, 15 March 2022

REGIONAL
The EU sets draft rules for sustainable cryptocurrencies
On 14 March, the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament passed the legislation for regulating digital assets called the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework. The European Parliament declined a last-minute amendment to the bill, which was aimed to limit the use of cryptos powered by the energy-intensive process known as proof-of-work (PoW). The Members of the European Parliament (MEP) agreed on the draft rules for the supervision, consumer protection, and environmental sustainability of crypto-assets. The draft rules received 31 votes in favour, four against, and 23 abstentions. The European Commission Council and Parliament will begin formal negotiations on the framework. The MEP Stefan Berger of the European People’s Party stated: “With the adoption of the MiCA report, the European Parliament has paved the way for an innovation-friendly crypto-regulation that can set standards worldwide.” (Pascale Davies, “Europe rejects proposal limiting PoW cryptos such as Bitcoin but sets draft rules for sustainability,” Euronews, 14 March 2022)


14 March 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #148

War in Ukraine: Day 18 & 19

Greek PM Mitsotakis visits Istanbul; National Museum Wales defends display of BLM placards

Photo : Atlantic Council


War in Ukraine: Day 18 & 19
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Increased explosions, continuing talks, and new maritime block

Zelensky’s address
On 13 March, Zelensky spoke to thousands of protestors in Italy. Many pro-Ukraine protestors in Italy gathered in large in Turin and Florence with Ukrainian flags. In the speech, President urged for more sanctions against Moscow and demanded the grant of a no-fly zone.

On 14 March, in his video address, Zelensky reiterated the demands for declaring a no-fly zone to NATO leaders. He said: “If you don't close our sky, it is only a matter of time before Russian rockets fall on your territory, on Nato territory.” The demand has been once again kept forward due to increasing airstrikes and attacks on the military base in Yavoriv.

On 14 March, the Ukrainian government announced the upcoming addresses of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. The president will deliver addresses to the US politicians using an online platform and the Senate has appreciated the address. In the address, both parties will discuss on bringing new legislation to “cripple and isolate,” Russia and to help Ukraine in carrying out the evacuation.

Ukraine-Russia Talks
On 14 March, the peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv began with the Ukrainian minister stating the negotiations, after the discussion the Deputy Head of office for President Zelensky said that Russia’s position is seen to be becoming more constructive than before. According to the Ukraine negotiator, the talks henceforth will target establishing a ceasefire and removal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

Ukraine Military advance
On 14 March, Ukraine’s military claimed to have struck four planes, three helicopters and many unmanned aircraft of Russian troops in the past 24 hours. It reported that it had attacked Russian bases and warehouses to interrupt its supply into Ukraine. Other observations made by the military were, the draining psychological condition of Russian soldiers and Russia's moves to be maintaining control of captured territories than occupying further.

Naval block
As per the recent report, UK Ministry of Defense confirmed a naval blockade being installed by Russian naval forces in Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline. This means blocking maritime trade, UK also said that a similar event had taken place in the Sea of Azov.

Disappearing Mayors
After the kidnapping of the Mayor of Melitopol as reported by Ukraine, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has been reportedly disappearing according to Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He said: “Getting zero local support, invaders turn to terror. I call on all states and international organizations to stop Russian terror against Ukraine and democracy.”

Explosions
On 13 March, a wide range of explosions took place across Ukraine. Amongst the explosions, Lviv, one of the main cities in western Ukraine was attacked rigorously by Russian missiles and airstrikes. The Lviv military officers reported that eight missiles of Russia targeted the International Peacekeeping and security centre. This centre expands to 30 km, which forms the base for training Ukraine’s forces, it also holds international forces such as NATO and the EU. Along with this, Ivano-Frankivsk was also experiencing similar attacks. These attacks are observed to be the closes of all to the borders of NATO.

On 14 March, upon the attacks in Lviv, the Mayor of Lviv reported: “I had a meeting with Polish politicians and Polish mayors. I sent a very strong message, 20km (12.5 miles) from the European Union’s borders. We need military equipment, we need bullet-proof vests, we need [helmets]… We need together support and help, help [for] refugees, and help [for] Ukrainian troops.” He recommended for the no-fly zone to be declared by NATO, as the war nears NATO borders.

On 13 March 1300 Ukrainian troops were declared dead by Ukraine President and Mariupol has been further captured by Russian troops. Ukraine’s centuries-old orthodox monastery in eastern Ukraine was shelled by Russia using aerial bombs, causing severe damage to the building. Many people including the refugees, monks and children were evacuated. As Russia advances further into Mariupol, the count of death have gone up due to attacks, shortage of water and lack of essential supplies, killing close to 2100 people.

Evacuation
On 13 March, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine reported the evacuation of 13,000 Ukrainians through the laid humanitarian corridors. Ukraine’s National Rail Company reported the attack on a passenger train that was used in evacuating refugees from eastern Ukraine. In the attack, the conductor was killed and other employees were badly injured.

On 14 March, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine reported that after thousand were evacuated on the previous day. More than 140,000 civilians were confirmed to be rescued from the conflict zone mainly from the front lines through humanitarian corridors.

Other developments
On 13 March, the Regional Council of Kherson voted against the independence referendum of Russia. It passed a resolution confirming that the city of Kherson remained part of Ukraine. The Deputy Head of the Council said: “never recognise attempts to create a 'people's republic' in the Kherson region and seize part of Ukraine.” Previously Ukraine Foreign Minister tweeted that: “Russians [are] now desperately try to organise a sham 'referendum' for a fake 'people's republic' in Kherson.”

On 13 March, Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had talks discussing the possibility of installing peace to end the war with Russia. Zelensky asked for assistance in releasing the kidnapped mayor of Melitopol.

On 13 March, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said that Ukraine will settle down only for negotiations and will not surrender to Russia. He also warned that, with the progression of Russia, Kyiv needed more arms, strong air defense systems, and supplies from the West to withhold and carry out the evacuation. He claimed that despite continuous shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine is still in control of the city.

On 14 March, the Turkish Foreign Minister urged Russia to allow the evacuation of Turkish citizens cornered in Mariupol Mosque. He asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to support the process. So far 86 Turks were said to be taking cover, which includes 34 children.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russia to China
On 14 March, an important development of the week is Russia seeking military and economic help from China. As per recent news reports Russia’s ask for economic assistance is to help mitigate its economy from sanctions. Till now China has maintained a neutral position in the Ukraine war, but the economic relations have consistently increased between Russia and China in past year. Upon Russia’s move, the West has raised alarm and assured to take necessary steps to keep China away. According to Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, denied Russia asking for military help from China and said: “independent potential to continue its special operation in Ukraine.” He also added: “Russia has sufficient potential for conducting the special military operation in Ukraine. The operation is proceeding in accordance with the original plan and will be completed on time and in full.”

Death claims and accusations of the UN

On 13 March, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that 3,687 military operating spaces have been attacked, which includes 99 aircraft, 1,194 tanks, combat vehicles and hundreds of artillery guns. In the attack on the Yavoriv training base, Russia claimed to have killed 180 foreign mercenaries and caused large destruction on weapons supplied by external powers to Ukraine.

On 13 March, after the accusation of kidnapping Ukraine’s mayor of Melitopol, the Russian military has positioned new mayor Galina Danilchenko in Melitopol. Russia has also decided to temporarily shut down its stock market till 18 March as western sanctions mount over its economy.

On 14 March, the Defense Ministry confirmed 20 being killed in the Donetsk region by the Ukrainian military, it said: “it appears the bosses of Ukraine across the ocean are giving orders to the Ukrainian army.” But, Ukraine has denied suck killings. Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the attack of Ukraine using a Tochka-U missile on Donetsk. On the same, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia said: “But the under-secretary-general did not find a single word to tell about today’s strike by a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile with a cluster bomb at central Donetsk. The strike killed 20 and wounded 35 civilians. Neither did any of the representatives of Western countries find a single word about it.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
 

On 13 March, US President Joe Biden spoke to France’s President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. The White House released a statement about the two leaders’ discussion and how they “reviewed recent diplomatic engagements and underscored their commitment to hold Russia accountable for its actions.” The two leaders also pledged their support to the people and the government of Ukraine. 

On the same day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned a missile attack by Russia on Ukraine’s border with Poland. Blinken said: “We condemn the Russian Federation’s missile attack on the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security in Yavoriv, close to Ukraine’s border with Poland. The brutality must stop.” Also, on 13 March, Biden authorized USD 200 million to procure additional military equipment for Ukraine. The announcement comes as Washington had already authorized USD 350 million worth of military equipment on 26 February.  

On 13 March, US journalist and filmmaker Brent Renaud were killed while covering the war in Ukraine. Kyiv’s police Chief Andriy Nebytov said the Russian soldiers targeted Renaud and two other journalists. Fellow reporter Juan Arredondo said the soldiers indiscriminately fired at them while they were going to photograph refugees leaving Irpin. 

Also, on 13 March, the warfare in Ukraine opened a civil war within the US Republican Party as candidates exchanged attacks on each other’s past comments praising Putin. Republican Senate candidate targeted Republican rival representative Ted Budd saying: “While Ukrainians bled and died ... Congressman Budd excused their killer.” Budd responded, saying: “Ted Budd presented the sort of level-headed assessment of a foreign crisis you would expect from a US Senator because he knows these are serious times that require strength and substance, not the empty soundbites.”

On 13 March, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated that he would discuss the war in Ukraine with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at talks in Ankara on 14 March. Turkey has voiced its support for Ukraine and called the invasion unacceptable; however, it also opposed sanctions on Moscow. Erdogan said: “Aside from bilateral ties, an exchange of views is expected to be held on other regional and international issues, primarily Ukraine and Turkey-EU relations.”

On 14 March, the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that China would face the consequences if it helped Russia evade sanctions. Sullivan would be meeting China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome. As reported by Reuters: “Sullivan plans in his meeting with Yang to make Washington’s concerns clear while mapping out the consequences and growing isolation China would face globally if it increases its support of Russia.”

At the same time, in response to Sullivan’s concerns on Beijing’s role in the crisis, China’s Spokesperson Liu Pengyu said: “We support and encourage all efforts that are conducive to a peaceful settlement of the crisis.” However, China has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has also abstained from voting at the UN Security Council and General Assembly.

On 14 March, days after Poland welcomed about a million refugees from Ukraine, an article in the BBC talked about how the country now feels the strain of increasing immigrants. Zamosc’s mayor Andrzej Wnuk mentioned: “We thought there would be the first wave of refugees and then we would get significant support from the government and the EU, but it turns out we were left alone. We need financial help or the quality of our hospitality will drop drastically.” Wnuk mentioned the shortcomings of financial help as they only had enough handouts for two weeks. 

Nevertheless, On the same day, as the war continued, an army of Polish volunteers joined to help facilitate the refugees. The volunteers have been providing food and blankets that they received from all over Europe. At the same time, a team of hospital medics from the UK flew to Poland to bring 21 Ukrainian children with cancer back to England. The hospital said: “The families were so incredibly grateful and the stories they told were horrific. We were just so pleased to do something to help.”

On 14 March, the UK announced a new visa scheme under which there would be no limit to the number of Ukrainian refugees who can live with UK host families. The scheme will benefit the thousands of displaced refugees in the country. Furthermore, the UK government stated, it would grant GBP 350 a month from the government as a “thank you” for helping the people out. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: “I’m pleased that we’re doing this because as a country we have a very proud record of offering sanctuary to people from wars and from conflicts.” 

However, the Welsh Refugee Council Chief Executive, Andrea Cleaver, said the UK government was not doing enough compared to the EU countries. She said: “Whereas, in the UK at the moment, we have only taken in 3,000 people, through a visa route, not through a refugee route, and that is really quite disheartening, it is really quite shocking, frankly.”

Also, on 14 March, the UK’s Ministry of Defence talked about the 2,500,000 refugees that were forced from their homes and the indiscriminate shelling that had caused widespread destruction in Ukraine. The Ministry also talked about the UN reports that stated 1,663 civilian war casualties. 

From Belarus, on 14 March, the Belarusian armed forces pushed asylum seekers towards Poland and Ukraine. The asylum seekers were mainly from the Middle East and were trapped after the war broke out. As reported by the Guardian: “a group of Belarusian soldiers on 5 March to leave the building at gunpoint and given two options: crossing the border into Poland, where guards have beaten them back or entering Ukraine, one of them said.” This was the first time the guards had entered the camp and forced them to choose between the two options. 

From Italy, on 14 March, Pope Francis condemned the invasion of Ukraine. He said the “unacceptable armed aggression” had to stop. Pope Francis addressed the issues at St Peter’s Square, where thousands had gathered for the Sunday blessings. Regardless, Pope Francis did not mention Russia but stated words like “armed aggression” and “no valid strategic reason,” hinting towards Russia’s Ukraine invasion.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
IMF: On 13 March, the International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva talked about the possibility of Russia defaulting on its debts in the wake of the unprecedented sanctions and its invasion of Ukraine. However, she assured that both the debt nor war would not trigger a global financial crisis. A total amount of USD 120 billion was the debt owed by Russia. At the same time, Russia even asked the IMF if it could access the USD 1.4 billion emergency fund approved for Ukraine if it won the war and installed a government. 

EUROZONE: On 14. March, the Finance Ministers of the Eurozone, as reported by Reuters, said: "on Monday the European Commission's view that fiscal policy should move from supportive to neutral in 2023, but that they must be ready with more cash should the war in Ukraine make it necessary." The 19 Euro area members would meet to discuss the implications of war and its risk to the EU economic growth.

NATO: On 13 March, NATO's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned of a possibility that Russia planned to use chemical weapons in Ukraine. He said: "Now that these false allegations have been made, we must remain vigilant because it is possible that Russia itself could be conducting missions with chemical weapons under this tissue of lie." At the same time, Stoltenberg rejected Zelenskyy's calls for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. 

INSTAGRAM: On 13 March, the social media app Instagram was blocked in Russia after the country banned Facebook and Twitter. Russia justified its ban saying, the app allowed calls for violence against Russian troops and Putin. Moscow further encouraged its platforms called Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki to be used in place of the banned apps. 

INDIA: On 13 March, India announced temporarily shifting its embassy from Ukraine to Poland amid the deteriorating security situation. The Ministry of External Affairs said it was only a temporary shift and added: "The situation will be reassessed in the light of further developments." 

AUSTRALIA AND NETHERLANDS: On 14 March, Australia and the Netherlands launched a legal proceeding against Russia for downing the civil Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in 2014. The complaint was lodged through the International Civil Aviation Organization, and if found guilty, Russia could be penalized by the UN organizations. In addition, the two countries sought compensation and an apology from Russia that saw the death of 298 people, including 38 Australians.

OIL: On 14 March, As Ukrainian and Russian negotiators were set to discuss the crisis virtually, oil prices fell to about USD seven a barrel. The recent lockdowns imposed in China are an added reason for the drop in prices. Analyst at CMC Markets Tina Teng said: "Oil prices might continue moderating this week as investors have been digesting the impact of sanctions on Russia, along with parties showing signs of negotiation towards (a) ceasefire." 

References: 

BBC LiveBBC, 14 March 2022

Russia’s operation in Ukraine proceeds according to plan — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 14 March 2022

Not a single word said by UN deputy chief about shelling of Donetsk — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 14 March 2022

Russia resolutely condemns shelling of Donetsk by Ukraine — MFA statement,” TASS, 14 March 2022

Tochka-U missile debris cause massive devastation in Donetsk,” TASS, 14 March 2022

Andrea Shalal, Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom, “China faces consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions, U.S. says,” Reuters, 14 March 2022

Mark Lowen, “Poland feels the strain of Ukraine's refugees,” BBC, 14 March 2022

Kevin Jackson, “Ukraine war: Poland's army of volunteers help fleeing refugees,” BBC, 14 March 2022

Southampton hospital medics fly 21 Ukrainian children with cancer to England,” BBC, 14 March 2022

George Bowden & Alice Evans, "Ukraine war: 'No cap' on refugees under new UK visa scheme,” BBC, 14 March 2022 

Ukraine: My hopes to host refugees delayed by UK government,” BBC, 14 March 2022

Turkey's Erdogan, Germany's Scholz to hold talks in Ankara on Ukraine,” Reuters, 14 March 2022 

Lorenzo Tondo, “Fears grow of new crisis as refugees in Belarus driven into Ukraine,” The Guardian, 14 March 2022 

Stop this massacre’: pope condemns invasion of Ukraine,” The Guardian, 14 March 2022 

Andrea Shalal, “Russian default no longer 'improbable', but no trigger for global financial crisis- IMF,” Reuters, 14 March 2022

Jan Strupczewski, “Euro zone to back broadly neutral, but flexible 2023 fiscal stance amid Ukraine war,” Reuters, 14 March 2022 

India to temporarily shift its embassy in Ukraine to Poland,” Reuters, 13 March 2022 

Sarah Martin, “Australia and the Netherlands launch legal action against Russia over MH17 disaster,” The Guardian, 13 March 2022 

Ukraine: Talks with Russia could yield results in days, Kyiv says — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2022 

Brent Renaud: US journalist and filmmaker killed in Ukraine,” BBC, 13 March 2022

David Morgan, “Ukraine war becomes a cudgel in Republican Party's internal conflict,” Reuters, 13 March 2022 

U.S. Authorizes $200M in Additional Military Aid to Ukraine,” Moscow Times, 13 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Joeana Cera Matthews

THE UK
National Museum Wales defends its decision to display Black Lives Matter placards
On 13 March, the former UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage criticized the National Museum Wales for displaying placards from the Black Lives Matter protests. He stated that the movement was Marxist and violent, and its motive was to defund the police. However, the Museum's Director General, David Andersson, upheld his decision and said: "Now if ever is the time to defend democracy and cultural rights; we must collect far more of the histories of black communities in Wales, not less." Further, National Museum Wales public history and archaeology head, Sioned Huges, defended Anderson. Huges expressed that the collection of contemporary material displaying the placards, photographs, and accounts from activists was crucial to tell the story of the Black Lives Matter movement. (“St Fagans: Museum hits back after Farage rebuke over BLM display,” BBC, 13 March 2022)

British Academy Film Awards Ceremony, amid the war in Ukraine
On 13 March, the movie the Power of Dog won two honors at the BAFTA ceremony while Dune bagged up most of the prizes. The award ceremony was held at London's Royal Albert Hall. References of the war in Ukraine were visible in the ceremony as nominees wore ribbons and badges in blue and yellow to depict the Ukrainian flag. A few nominees even spoke about the crisis on the red carpet and on stage. Actor Benedict Cumberbatch who arrived with theatre director Sophie Hunter, wore a Ukrainian flag badge at the 75th ceremony. (Marie-Louise Gumuchian, "'The Power of the Dog', 'Dune' triumph at BAFTA Awards,” Reuters, 14 March 2022)

THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Tender for a new unit at the Dukovany nuclear power plant
On 13 March, the Czeck Industry Ministry Spokesperson Vojtech Srunka said: “Industry Minister Jozef Sikela will issue an order next week for the tender for a new unit at Dukovany nuclear power plant.” The new unit is intended to replace structures slated for retirement in the coming decades. Concerning that nuclear energy accounts for 40 per cent power supply, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said in February that he expects a supplier for the new Dukovany unit to be picked by 2024, construction permits obtained by 2029, and the unit to be operational by 2036. (“Czech ministry to order launch of nuclear power plant tender -spokesman”, Reuters, 13 March 2022)

REGIONAL
Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis visits Istanbul 
On 13 March, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis agreed to improve ties, despite the long-running disagreements between the two countries. The Turkish presidency stated: "the benefits of increased cooperation between the two countries" in light of "the evolution of the European security architecture." After the meeting, Mitsotakis said: "I believe we set the foundations to improve our relations." For years, Ankara and Athens have had issues over maritime, energy, the division of Cyprus, the status of the Aegean islands, and migration. The two leaders agreed for further talks and emphasized building a positive agenda in the economic sector. (“Turkey and Greece talk Ukraine, pledge to improve ties,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2022) 

 

 

 

 

 


12 March 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #147

War in Ukraine: Day 17

Queen Elizabeth will not attend the Commonwealth service; Macron’s economic policies in last five years; EU seek pause on JCPOA talks

Photo : Reuters/Leonhard


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Mathews and Padmashree Anandhan

War on the ground:
Shelling continues, 70 per cent of Luhansk Oblast under Russia, and claims of new Russian troop deployment

On 12 March, the Ukrainian military announced via Facebook that Russia had captured regions east of the besieged city of Mariupol. According to the military, both Mariupol and Severodonetsk in the east are important captures for the Russian troops. Meanwhile, the military also published that Russian efforts to begin an offensive to the northeast of Kyiv had been "partially successful". Additionally, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said: "(Ukrainian troops were) inflicting losses on Russian invaders in manpower and military equipment, which significantly reduces their will to continue the confrontation." Given the humanitarian crisis in the city due to increased shelling, the United Nations Crisis Coordinator for Ukraine Amid Awad said that the UN was working toward safe humanitarian corridors that would aid Mariupol. 

On 12 March, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that more Russian troops were being deployed to Ukraine following its losses. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy also held telephonic conversations with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron regarding the release of Melitopol's mayor, Ivan Fedorov. According to Zelenskyy, the mayor had been abducted by Russian troops on 11 March. The President demanded Fedorov's release and said: "This is obviously a sign of weakness of the invaders... They have moved to a new stage of terror in which they are trying to physically eliminate representatives of legitimate local Ukrainian authorities." He continued: "The capture of the mayor of Melitopol is, therefore, a crime, not only against a particular person, against a particular community, and not only against Ukraine. It is a crime against democracy itself. The acts of the Russian invaders will be regarded like those of 'Islamic State' terrorists." Ukraine's Parliament backed the claim, adding that the mayor was kidnapped due to his refusal to cooperate with the occupiers. 

On 12 March, Luhansk Oblast's Governor Serhiy Haidai stated that 70 per cent of the region was under Russian occupation. Meanwhile, Ukraine-controlled areas witnessed an artillery bombardment leading to dozens of civilian deaths and other casualties. Via the Facebook post, Haidai also mentioned the lack of humanitarian corridors available for citizens to flee the region. Additionally, Sumy's regional administration head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi announced via Telegram that six escape routes were prepared for evacuation. Those from Sumy, Trostianets, Lebedin, Konotop, Krasnopillia and Velyka Pysarivka are likely to be taken to the south of Sumy, to Poltava. 

On 12 March, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said that Russian forces had shelled a mosque in Mariupol. The Ministry tweeted: "The mosque of Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent and his wife Roxolana (Hurrem Sultan) in Mariupol was shelled by Russian invaders… More than 80 adults and children are hiding there from the shelling, including citizens of Turkey." Separately, an airbase near Kyiv's Vasylkiv was attacked by Russian rockets. Citing the town's mayor, Interfax Ukraine reported the missile to have also hit an ammunition depot.

On 11 March, Zelenskyy had stated that a renewed evacuation effort would be undertaken for Mariupol residents. The President said: "Russian troops have not let our aid into the city and continue to torture our people ...tomorrow we will try again, try again to send food, water and medicine." Addressing the Russian soldiers' mothers, Zelenskyy appealed: "I want to say this once again to Russian mothers, especially mothers of conscripts. Do not send your children to war in a foreign country… Ukraine never wanted this terrible war. And Ukraine does not want it. But it will defend itself as much as necessary."
 
The Moscow view: 
Claims by Russia

On 12 March, TASS reported Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warning the US to be prepared for the country's sanctions list. Ryabkov maintained that it would "soon be made public". Ryabkov stated: "The lists are ready, we are working on this. This is, by and large, part of the daily work." Meanwhile, a Russian Foreign Ministry official Nikolai Kobrinets commented on the EU's sanctions against Russia leading to increased energy prices. As reported by Interfax, Kobrinets said: "I believe the European Union would not benefit from this. We have more durable supplies and stronger nerves."

On 12 March, the Russian embassy in Washington released a statement condemning Meta's decision to permit calls for violence directed towards the Russian military and related authorities. 
The statement read: "Meta's aggressive and criminal policy leading to incitement of hatred and hostility towards Russians is outrageous… The company's actions are yet another evidence of the information war without rules declared on our country." Meanwhile, the State Duma Head of Information Policy and IT Committee Alexander Khinshtein proposed that Instagram be blocked in the country following the ban on Facebook.

On 12 March, the Head of Russia's space agency Dmitry Rogozin warned that the sanctions imposed on Russia could lead to the crash of the International Space Station (ISS). The Roscosmos head said: "The Russian segment ensures that the station's orbit is corrected (on average 11 times a year), including to avoid space debris… But the populations of other countries, especially those led by the 'dogs of war', should think about the price of the sanctions against Roscosmos."

On 12 March, Belarus' Armed Forces' Chief of General Staff Viktor Gulevich stated that the country did not intend to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Gulevich added that five battalion tactical groups (BTGs) were being deployed to the border to replace the forces already stationed there. Gulevich said: "I want to underline that the transfer of troops is in no way connected with (any) preparation, and especially not with the participation of Belarusian soldiers in the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine."

The West view: 
Responses from the US and Europe

From France and Germany
On 12 March, the French Presidency released a statement on the phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The attempts for a phone call failed to push for a ceasefire. In the statement given in TASS: "…the Federal Chancellor and the French president insisted on an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and the start [of efforts] to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. It was decided to keep silent regarding the remaining details, Scholz learnt about his evaluation of the current situation. The parties agreed to keep in touch." According to France, Putin did not seem to show any interest to end the war in Ukraine, next set of sanctions will be assessed in Brussels taking the latest developments in Mariupol into account. The sanctions majorly aim to side-line Putin from the international community. Apart from this, Macron also urged Putin to remove the blockade in Mariupol as people run out of water and power.
 
On 12 March, Macron, in the end of the EU summit, accused the UK of its grand statements on easing the visa process for Ukrainian refugees but not following in reality. He remarked that the UK was still following current rules where Ukrainian refugees have to travel to the UK for applying visa. The UK's response indicated that it is in the process of modifying to a simpler version. 
 
From Bulgaria
On 12 March, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev put forth its interest to host talks between Ukraine and Russia. He said that Bulgaria can serve as a place for negotiation and, as an EU member, urged others to unite to find a solution. The UK Minister of State for Europe and North America James Cleverly recently visited to discuss the Ukraine war situation.
 
From the US
On 11 March, US President Joe Biden commented that the US would not directly engage by sending troops to Ukraine; he assured that NATO's sovereignty would stand guarded by the US, but warned that a direct conflict between NATO and Russia would mean World War III. Biden announced the ban on Russian alcohol, seafood and diamonds, which are considered more valuable to the Russian economy. Apart from the goods, the US Treasury sanctioned 22 Russian oligarchs. The growing intensity of sanctions is observed in the actions taken by the US.
 
On 12 March, upon the concerns raised by Ukraine on the possibility of Belarus joining hands with Russia, the US confirmed that there was no evidence showing the movement of Belarusian troops into Ukraine. The US pentagon spokesperson said: "We haven't seen any indications that Belarusian troops or forces have moved inside Ukraine."
 
From the UK
On 11 March, UK Ambassador Dame Barbara Woodward to the UN accused Russia's claims on Ukraine's use of biological weapons. The Ambassador denied by saying "a grotesque lie" and condemned Russia for engaging in war crimes. Woodward also recommended that Russia be stopped from using its seat in the UN to spread "disinformation and lies." Apart from this, the UK sent six additional planes carrying medical aid and equipment to support Ukraine. 
 
From Italy
On 12 March, Italy seized a EUR 530 million worth superyacht of a Russian billionaire. Similarly, the French also seized a yacht last week. The seizing has increased due to recently imposed sanctions by the EU.
 
The Global Fallouts: 
International implications of the Ukraine war

India
On 12 March, Russia has approached India to further its investments in the oil and gas sector which is currently under sanctions of the West. Russia, through this aims to expand its sales network in Asia. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said: "Russia's oil and petroleum product exports to India have approached $1 billion, and there are clear opportunities to increase this figure." In response, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri discussed ways of firming "India-Russia partnership in energy sector." According to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the decision to expand in the energy sector will depend on many factors such as transit route, pay channel, and insurance.
 
Japan
On 12 March, Japanese multi-brands such as Uniqlo and Japan Tobacco have reversed their decision to withdraw business from Russia. Both the companies had announced the closing down last week. It has reasoned it as "clothing is a necessity in life," the decision has been taken to operate in 50 stores in Russia. Similarly, Japan Tobacco company which has a one-third share in the Russian tobacco market has modified its policy by stopping investment and marketing. Instead, it has opted to launch heated tobacco products.
 
Guatemala
On 11 March, eight Ukrainian refugees arrived in Guatemala due to the Russian invasion; another plane was on its way carrying more refugees from Ukraine.
 
Social Media
In the past week, social media platforms eased their policies to allow calls and posts against Putin or Russian forces, in response, Russia announced ban on the apps such as Meta, WhatsApp and Instagram. On 12 March, Meta's Senior Executive, differing from the previous stance, clarified on Meta that: "does not tolerate Russophobia" or any kind of discrimination towards Russians - and "we are only going to apply this policy in Ukraine itself." In continuation of the bans, YouTube has also joined in blocking access to Russian State Media. The spokesperson said: "In line with that, effective immediately, we are also blocking YouTube channels associated with Russian state-funded media, globally."
 
Entertainment
On 12 March, Pink Floyd and David Gilmour announced the removal of their albums from Russia and Belarus music platforms. They tweeted: "To stand with the world in strongly condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the works of Pink Floyd, from 1987 onwards, and all of David Gilmour's solo recordings are being removed from all digital music providers in Russia and Belarus from today."
 
Banks
On 12 March, along with Wall Street banks, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank announced closing down its business in Russia. Previously it did not agree to withdraw its services; upon accusation by the lawmakers and investors, it announced the closing down.
 
Sports
On 12 March, Hyundai, one of the main sponsors in football, announced its suspension of sponsorship to Chelsea Football Club by sanctions imposed against the club's owner. In the statement given by the company: "…However, in the current circumstances, we have decided to suspend our marketing and communication activities with the Club until further notice."
 
References

"Scholz, Macron speak with Putin again over Ukraine conflict — live updates," Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2022. 

Léonie Chao-Fong, Miranda Bryant and Helen Livingstone, "Russia-Ukraine war latest news: Russian army suffering biggest losses in decades, Zelenskiy says, as fighting intensifies near Kyiv – live," The Guardian, 12 March 2022.

"Russian rockets destroy Ukrainian airbase in Kyiv region: Interfax quoting mayor," Reuters, 12 March 2022. 

"Ukraine says Russian forces shelled mosque in Mariupol," Reuters, 12 March 2022. 

"Russia warns sanctions could cause International Space Station to crash," France24, 12 March 2022. 

"BBC live", BBC, 12 March 2022

"Macron, Scholz tell Putin about need for ceasefire in Ukraine," TASS, 12 March 2022

Michael Holden, Praveen Menon and Karl Plume, "Japan's Uniqlo makes U-turn to exit Russia as Britain hits oligarchs," Reuters, 12 March 2022

Suhasini Haidar, "Russia offers more oil to India," The Hindu, 12 March 2022

Cesar Perez Marroquin, "The first Ukrainian families fleeing the war and the Russian invasion arrive in Guatemala," Prensa Libra, 11 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Emmanuel Royan 

THE UK
Prince Charles to attend the upcoming Commonwealth Service 
On 11 March, UK’s Queen Elizabeth announced that she would not be attending the Commonwealth Service. However, Prince Charles would act in her place for the annual service. This was supposed to be her first in-person public meeting since she fell ill in October 2021. The Palace stated: “After discussing the arrangements with the Royal Household, the Queen has asked The Prince of Wales to represent Her Majesty at the Commonwealth Service at Westminster Abbey on Monday.” However, the Palace clarified that the decision was not because of any illness but due to issues of the Queen’s movement to and from the service. (“UK’s Queen Elizabeth pulls out of Commonwealth Service,” Reuters, 12 March 2022)

Scottish Conservative party leader withdraws his letter for Boris Johnson’s resignation
On 10 March, the Scottish Conservative party leader Douglas Ross withdrew his call for the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Downing Street parties. Ross said he had written to the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory Members of Parliament in January. Concerning the crisis in Eastern Europe Ross said he “had confidence in the prime minister to deal with this situation at the moment…everything else seems trivial.” Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called on Ross to not use the Ukraine crisis to backtrack on his principles. Furthermore, Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: “Ross has a backbone of a Jellyfish.” In response to the criticism, Ross stated that he did not care about other parties and mentioned: “The only person who would gain from the removal of a UK prime minister from office would be Vladimir Putin." (“Douglas Ross: Removing PM would only benefit Putin”, BBC, 10 March 2022.)

FRANCE
President Emmanuel Macron’s economic policies over the last five years
On 11 March, an article published by France24 reported insights on France’s President Emmanuel Macron and his economic policies as he declared his candidacy for reelections. Macron was a former investment banker and had served under the former President François Hollande as the Economy Minister. His economic policies had boosted businesses as he had reduced the tax rate of firms from 33.3 per cent to 25 per cent. His other policies were the reason why France’s GDP growth reached seven per cent in 2021, even with the pandemic dip of minus eight per cent in 2020. However, workers’ job security and job quality reduced as wealthy people in France grew wealthier. (Romain Brunet, “Trickle-down in drips and drops: The French economy after five years under Macron,” France24, 11 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The EU asks for a pause in the Iran nuclear deal due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
On 11 March, EU’s Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell said the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was put on hold due to “external factors.” Since Borrell had been coordinating the JCPOA agreement, he further said: “A final text is essentially ready and on the table. As coordinator, I will, with my team, continue to be in touch with all participants and the US to overcome the current situation and to close the agreement.” The talks of reviving the agreement were earlier held in Vienna. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh responded by assuring “No external factor will affect our joint will to go forward for a collective agreement.” (“EU says ‘pause’ needed in Iran nuclear deal talks,” Deutsche Welle, 12 March 2022)


11 March 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #146

War in Ukraine: Day 16

President Biden holds phone conversation with Erdogan; Belarusian Interior Affairs Ministry classifies DW content as “extremist”; Germany’s Baerbock meets with Estonian Foreign Minister Turkovic

Photo : Institute of War


War in Ukraine: Day 16
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Increased airstrikes, military expansion to the west and failure in evacuation

On 11 March, the Ukraine Defense Ministry issued a statement making three observations. One is Russia’s shortage in manpower, hence its reaching prisoners of war to fight along with Russian forces in Rostov, a city in the south-eastern area. Second, violation of international law through civilian killing and spreading pro-Russian messages to twitch the minds of local citizens. Third, Russia’s attempts to install police in the occupied areas to administer and control.
 
On 11 March, while Kharkiv was being attacked, Russia launched a new set of attacks for the first time in Lutsk, in the north-west, Ivano-Frankivsk in the south-west and Dnipro in the central-eastern of Ukraine. The west part of Ukraine was considered to be safe points for people fleeing and with Russia striking in the west, the war is reaching its full escalation. Mayor of Lutsk confirmed the explosions near a kindergarden and an apartment building. Ukraine's State Emergency Services (SES) reported killings of many civilians and soldiers due to bombings and aerial assault. With continued gunfire taking place in the north-west and south-west cities, Ukraine issued a warning to for people to evacuate immediately from Krykhivtsi, Chukalivka, Opryshivtsi, Gorodok districts. Upon airstrikes in Chernihiv, a northern city of Ukraine, was cut off from water supply. The Ukrainian government hopes to establish 12 humanitarian corridors to evacuate people, but it is highly uncertain if they are under full operation without being destroyed by Russia.
 
On 11 March, President Zelensky responded to the Russian accusation on chemical weapons.He said that Ukraine will not prepare chemicals as weapons or use them as destruction weapon. He warned Russia on using such weapons on Ukraine. Zelensky said: “Have you decided to carry out 'de-chemicalisation' of Ukraine? Using ammonia? Using phosphorus? What else have you prepared for us? No chemical or any other weapons of mass destruction were developed on my land."
 
On 11 March, Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine was under attack by Russian airstrikes and weaponry fire, killing and injuring numerous civilians. According to reports from Ukraine’s State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate, the nuclear facility in Kharkiv has lost the power connection and was under destruction through continued bombing by Russians. Later, Ukraine Air Force released a statement saying that Ukraine smashed 10 Russian warplanes and two huge armoury convoys known as Su-25 and Su-34 jets.
 
On 11 March, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) disclosed that a Canadian sniper, known for its deadly capacity to kill enemies from two miles distance, was bought by Ukraine to fight against Russia. CBC disclosed that more than 20,000 have volunteered to join Ukraine in fighting the war.
 
On 11 March, in the meet between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba, in Turkey, according to the remarks of French President Emmanuel Macron, there was still a possibility to achieve a ceasefire. The demands kept forward by Ukraine’s representative was a 24-hour ceasefire and a humanitarian corridor in Mariupol, the Russia did not accept both and the talks failed to reach ceasefire agreement. Russia demanded Ukraine to "denazified" meaning to disarm and give up on joining the EU/NATO. On the questions of attack on the hospital facility in Mariupol, the Russian Defence Ministry denied taking responsibility. It countered by saying it believed the site to be Ukrainian Military base and not a hospital.
 
On 11 March, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine reported that 80,000 people had been evacuated from cities around the capital city Kyiv and from Sumy, around 60,000 were evacuated. The government faced a challenge in vacating people from Izyum, a town located in eastern Ukraine.
 
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia 

On 11 March, Russia backed separatists group have claimed to have captured the city of Volnovakha located in the north of the port city Mariupol. According to the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) armed forces: “A group of troops of the Donetsk People's Republic has liberated the city of Volnovakha. The settlements of Olginka, Veliko-Anadol and Zelenyi Gai have also been taken under control, upon advancing 6 kilometers.”
 
On 11 March, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office called out Meta as an “extremist organisation” and proposed its plans to ban its services in Russia. The move comes Meta modifies its policy to allow posts on violent speech against Russian forces. According to the office: “inciting hatred and animosity involving threats of violence.”
 
On 11 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, in his address at the Russian security council meeting urged volunteers to fight Russian backed groups in the war. He later approved the volunteers from the Middleeast to support Russia in eastern Ukraine. The involvement of Syrian government troops is predicted to be involved in the fighting for Russia; the inflow of Syrian soldiers is due to Russia’s previous help backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Putin said: “If you see that there are these people who want of their own accord, not for money, to come to help the people living in Donbas, then we need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone.” Besides, Putin indicated that the talks between the Ukraine and Russian officials and sanctions on Russia are seen as a positive development.
 
On 11 March, Russia’s Defense Ministry accepted the strikes launched on Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk; it claimed the use of “high-precision, long-range attacks,” to destroy military airfields in west cities of Ukraine.
 
On 11 March, Russia’s diplomatic office to the UN proposed for an emergency meeting  to debate Ukraine’s production of biological weapons with the support of the US. Russia's Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky tweeted: “Russian Mission asked for a meeting of #SecurityCouncil for 11 March to discuss the military biological activities of the US on the territory of #Ukraine.” According to Chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov: “[the materials] clearly refute the US statement that only Ukrainian scientists work in the Pentagon biolabs in Ukraine without the intervention of the US biologists.”
 
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 11 March, the EU announced doubling its military support to Ukraine and pledged USD one billion in funds. The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: “Everyone was completely aware that we have to increase our military support to Ukraine to increase the pressure on Russia.” On 10 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced to stop pumping money into the financial markets as it wants to deter the possibility of an exponential increase in inflation. The regulation would encourage higher interest rates which would counter the 5.8 per cent increase of inflation for February. ECB President Christine Lagarde said: “The Russia-Ukraine war will have a material impact on economic activity and inflation through higher energy and commodity prices, the disruption of international commerce and weaker confidence.” 
 
Also, On 11 March, US Vice President Kamala Harris headed to Romania to discuss the growing refugee crisis in the region. Her visit came after Ukrainian and Russian Foreign Ministers met in Turkey to discuss the war diplomatically. On 10 March, she met with the refugees in Warsaw and discussed issues of the war with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Duda said: “aware that the problem is growing and that this problem is increasing…We have to somehow handle it, and we do not have the experience.”
 
On 11 March, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda at the EU leaders summit in Versailles said, there was a “flavour of disappointment” as the bloc did not fast track Ukraine’s request. He said: “wish Ukraine gets candidate status now. But it was not possible to get it today. But probably it will come back to this issue later on. Some countries have domestic agendas, opinion of society, and they have to care about it. But more could be done.”
 
On 11 March, the UK Ministry of Defence stated that it was doubtful that Putin achieved his pre-invasion plan of Ukraine. Three weeks into the war, the Ukrainian forces had mounted a strong resistance against the Russians. The Ministry of Defence’s intelligence report said: “Logistical issues that have hampered the Russian advance persist, as does strong Ukrainian resistance.”
 
On the same day, the US Senate passed a bill to fund USD 13.6 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine. The US also condemned reports of Moscow’s plan to seize and nationalize the assets and businesses that have stopped operating. The White House Press secretary Jen Psaki said: “It will compound the clear message to the global business community that Russia is not a safe place to invest and do business.” However, a spokesperson for Coca-Cola said: “We have had no indications from Russian authorities that they intend to nationalise our assets.”
 
On 10 March, the UK government acted against the seven Russian oligarchs and implemented sanctions against them in response to Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Among the oligarchs, Chelsea football club owner Roman Abramovich was also sanctioned. The UK government found him to have received preferential treatment from Kremlin, and his business links were destabilising Ukraine. As reported by The Guardian: “Abramovich’s assets have been frozen, and he will be prohibited from making any transactions in the UK, as well as being subject to a travel ban.”
 
On 10 March, President Sauli Niinisto said Finland contemplated joining the NATO alliance. Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia and decided to review its security policy to join NATO. However, a recent poll found that more than 53 per cent of Finns now want to join NATO; this was a rise from merely 19 per cent that happened five years ago.
 
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

WHO: On 11 March, the WHO advised Ukraine to destroy high-threat pathogens at the country’s public health laboratories. The advisory came as the agency wanted to deter “any potential spills.” Reuters reported: “Biosecurity experts say Russia’s movement of troops into Ukraine and bombardment of its cities have raised the risk of an escape of disease-causing pathogens, should any of those facilities be damaged.”
 
UNHCR: UN’s High Commissioner for refugees Filippo Grandi reported that the number of refugees from Ukraine had reached 2.5 million. The UNHCR speculates that two million people were internally displaced within Ukraine. Furthermore, the German interior ministry said that more than 109,000 refugees had been registered in the country. In addition, Warsaw reported the arrival of 300,000 refugees in the country. 
 
ECONOMY: On 11 March, global investors shifted their investments from equities and bonds to assets of gold and cash. The rapid change came as Russia continued its invasion, and investors tried to seek shelter in the safer havens of gold and cash.  
 
FACEBOOK: On 10 March, Meta’s platform of Facebook and Instagram said, a few counties will be allowed to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers. The social media giant has temporarily approved posts that even call for the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Meta spokesperson said: “As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine we have temporarily made allowances for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules like violent speech such as ‘death to the Russian invaders.” 
 
ASIA: On 11 March, the BBC released a report that talked about the role of Asia in imposing and up-keeping the sanctions on Russia. China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Laos, and Mongolia did not vote on the UN’s resolution in demanding Russia to end its military operations in Ukraine. On the other hand, allies of the West, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Australia have imposed sanctions and blocked a few Russian banks from SWIFT payment systems. However, the countries who have sided with the west only make up to eight per cent of Russia’s global trade, while the countries that abstained made up 18 per cent. 
 
MNCs: On 11 March, Goldman Sachs and Western Union announced their withdrawal from Russia. Goldman Sachs’s pull-out would be the first Wall Street Bank to withdraw from the country, while Western Union also said it would suspend its operations in Belarus and Russia. The sanctions imposed on the country have made Western financial institutions tough to go on with their work. 
 
References: 
BBC live,” BBC, 11 March 2022
Documents confirm US participation in studies in Ukraine's bio labs — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 10 March 2022
DPR troops liberate Volnovakha,” TASS, 11 March 2022
Niko Vorobyov, “Finland mulls joining NATO after Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Al Jazeera, 11 March 2022 
Jennifer Rigby and Jonathan Landay, “Exclusive: WHO says it advised Ukraine to destroy pathogens in health labs to prevent disease spread,” Reuters, 11 March 2022 
Franceso Canepa and Balazs Koranyi, “ECB to turn off money taps at Ukraine 'watershed' moment,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
European stocks suffer record outflows on Ukraine war - BoFA,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Munsif Vengattil and Elizabeth Culliford, “EXCLUSIVE Facebook allows Ukraine war posts urging violence against invading Russians, Putin,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Aubrey Allegretti Jasper Jolly and Peter Walker, “UK freezes assets of seven Russian oligarchs including Roman Abramovich,” The Guardian, 10 March 2022
Daniel Boffey, Miranda Bryant and Samantha Lock, “Russia-Ukraine war latest news,” The Guardian, 11 March 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Lithuanian president says 'flavour of disappointment' over EU not fast tracking Ukraine's membership,” The Guardian, 11 March 2022
Nandita Bose, “VP Harris heads to Romania as Ukraine invasion fuels refugee crisis,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Mariko Oi, “War in Ukraine: How Asian economies are divided over Russia sanctions,” BBC, 11 March 2022
Goldman Sachs and Western Union pull out of Russia,” BBC, 11 March 2022
James Lee, “Putin humiliated as MoD says 'highly unlikely' Russia has achieved pre-invasion plan,” Express, 11 March 2022
Annabelle Liang, “War in Ukraine: US condemns reports Russia may seize firms' assets,” BBC, 11 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

BELARUS

Interior Affairs Ministry classifies Deutsche Welle content as “extremist”
On 09 March, Belarus’ Internal Affairs Ministry released a statement classifying information provided by Deutsche Welle and Telegram as ‘extremist’. The statement read: “The Minsk Central District Court, based on material from the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, has classified the information products of the Telegram channel and the DW Belarus chat as extremist material.” The Deutsche Welle Director General Peter Limbourg condemned the country’s attempt to silence independent opinion and said: “The blocking of our websites in Belarus in October 2021 was already an unbelievable encroachment on press freedom. The recent announcement of the criminalization of the DW logo proves how nervous the regime there is.” Even the logo of the media house has been classified as extremist. (“Belarus classifies Deutsche Welle as ′extremist,” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2022) 

REGIONAL
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Germany’s Baerbock meets with Foreign Minister Turkovic 
On 10 March, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock addressed a news conference with her Bosnian counterpart Bisera Turkovic in Sarajevo. Her visit marks efforts to bring the country into the EU’s purview following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Baerbock said: “We want to live together in the European house.” Baerbock, who is on a three–day trip to the region, will also visit Kosovo, Serbia and Moldova. top diplomat says the Ukraine conflict shows the importance of ties between the EU and the Western Balkans. Bosnia is seeking to join the EU, but accession negotiations have not begun. Meanwhile, Bosnia has sought membership in the bloc. Turkovic pushed for the accession process to be quickened as she said: “We believe that this would be a strong contribution to peace in Bosnia ... and in Europe.” (“Germany calls for closer EU-Bosnia ties amid war in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2022) 

Estonia: UK’s Sir Keir meets with Defense Minister Laanet
On 10 March, UK’s Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer met with Estonia’s Defense Minister Kalle Laanet. During the trip, Sir Keir met with NATO troops stationed in the country while expressing that the Labour party stood “steadfast in solidarity with Ukraine". His visit marks 15 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is aimed at addressing the Army’s claims that a few soldiers have moved on to fight in Ukraine which is against orders given to them. Sir Keir along with the shadow Defense Secretary John Healey met Colonel Dai Bevan; the Colonel leads NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in Estonia. Sir Keir is expected to return to Tallinn and address MPs at the country’s Parliament. Commenting on the threat of a nuclear war, Sir Keir mentioned the importance of ignoring "hypotheticals". (“Ukraine war: Starmer meets Nato troops on Estonia visit,” BBC, 10 March 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL
Turkey: Biden holds phone conversation with Erdogan
On 10 March, US President Joe Biden held a phone call with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to a statement released by Erdogan’s office, the President called on Biden to remove the “unjust” sanctions imposed on the country’s defense industry. The US had imposed sanctions on five of Turkey’s officials after Turkey bought Russian missile defense systems. Meanwhile, a White House statement failed to address any specifics regarding the talk on sanctions while it stated that the two leaders “discussed opportunities to strengthen bilateral ties”. Talks also focused on “Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine”. Additionally, Biden appreciated Turkey’s support to bring about a “diplomatic resolution to the conflict”. (Lauren Aratani, “US conducting 'legal review' of possible Russian war crimes in Ukraine – as it happened,” The Guardian, 10 March 2022) 


10 March 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #145

War in Ukraine: Day 15

European Parliament votes to ban golden passports; Corsica: Protests over assault of nationalist figure; Austria suspends Vaccine mandate

Photo : Reuters/Michele Tantussi


IN FOCUS

War in Ukraine: Day 15
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Airstrikes and evacuation

On 09 March, 35,000 civilians were evacuated from Ukrainian cities during the 12-hour ceasefire. The UN also mentioned that 2.2 million people had fled Ukraine until now. Most of the evacuees are in Poland, the evacuation of Ukrainians has been called the exodus of Europe's fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II. Also, two women and a 13-year-old boy were killed over night during the bombing of Velyka Pysarivka village near the city of Sumy.

On 10 March, As reported by The Guardian: "Western officials have warned of their "serious concern" that Vladimir Putin could use chemical weapons on Kyiv." The claims were made as Russia attacked a maternity and children's hospital and the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed its use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. 

Also, on 10 March, diplomats of Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey's city of Antalya. Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also participated in the discussion as Russian and Ukrainian delegates met at the sidelines of a diplomatic forum. This is the first high-level meeting since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. 

On the same day, the Mayor of Mariupol said 1,207 civilians were killed in Russia's siege of the port city. The Red Cross assessing the situation, said it seemed apocalyptic as the city was repeatedly under attack and there were no safe routes, water, power, or heat. Fear is also mounting on the Ukrainian people as they suspect a possible encirclement of Kyiv and its imminent invasion. This comes as Russia placed its tanks just a few kilometres away from the city limits. 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
 
On 09 March, Russia's President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding the special military operations to protect the Donbas region. The two leaders also discussed the possibilities of political-diplomatic efforts, and the negotiations held between Moscow and Kyiv were discussed. Putin further talked about the humanitarian corridors, the diminishing situation and civilian evacuation. 

On 10 March, The Moscow Times reported on the Western companies' exodus from Russia and its implication on the people's livelihood. The news agency summarised: "The business departures are already blowing holes in the Russian economy and are expected to leave thousands of workers unemployed in what could become the country's worst economic crisis since the end of the Soviet Union." In addition, the move had directly impacted the Russian currency of the Ruble. 

On the same day, as the Ruble collapsed, prices in Russia rose at their fastest rate in more than two decades. Russia experienced a weekly inflation rate of 2.2 per cent between 26 February and 04 March. Economists suggest that the commodities' annual prices will surpass 20 per cent by the end of March 2022. Moscow did respond to the price rise by implementing economic contraction methods of increasing the interest rates to 20 per cent. However, that has not stopped the highly volatile market from stabilizing. 

Moscow, on 10 March, announced that it would no longer participate in the Council of Europe. The Russian Foreign Ministry said: "since EU and NATO countries that are unfriendly to Russia continue their policy towards destroying the organisation and the common humanitarian and legal space in Europe." The statements came as a response to Russia feeling that the situation was becoming irreversible because of NATO, the EU, and a collective West as they wanted to impose a rules-based order. At the same time, Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko discussed the situation near the Chernobyl nuclear plant over a telephone call on 09 March. Lukashenko then directed Belarusian specialists to provide the necessary logistical and energy support needed by the plant. 

On 10 March, as reported by TASS, "As of the morning of 10 March, more than 213,000 people crossed the border of the Russian Federation, and more than 185,000 of them arrived in Russia from the DPR and LPR." This is one of the initial reports by sources that give a number of Ukrainian evacuees leaving the country and taking refuge in Russia. 

On 10 March, in response to the backlash Russia faced for launching an airstrike on a maternity and children's hospital, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov defended the claims and said the hospital served as a military base. He further said: "This maternity hospital has long been occupied by the Azov Battalion and other radicals. They drove out the women in labour, nurses and general staff. It was the base of the ultra-radical Azov Battalion."

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 10 March, the EU leaders gathered at France for the summit to discuss on reducing the dependency on Russian energy, and strengthening political support for Ukraine. European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “At this summit we will rethink European defence with strong capabilities. We will rethink energy. We will also certainly discuss Ukraine as part of our European family. We want a free and democratic Ukraine with whom we share a common destiny.”

On 10 March, During the visit of the US Vice President Kamala Harris to Poland vowed that the US will stand committed with NATO as per article 5 and announced US donation to World Food Programme of the UN.

On 10 March, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki warned that there are possibilities for Russia to launch attacks using biological weapons or chemicals or will try to carry out a similar fake operation. The US has also given an estimation of 5000 to 6000 Russian troops to have died in past weeks of war. Apart from the estimation, the US lawmakers approved the plan to give USD 13.6 billion as an emergency aid to Ukraine.

On 10 March, the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines accused that the approach of Russian forces has “reckless disregard” on civilians as it faces strong resistance from the Ukraine. The Director said: “The Russian military has begun to loosen its rules of engagement to achieve their military objectives.” Haines who is the main intelligence adviser to Biden said that the intelligence was tracking Russia’s actions to document evidence, so as to hold responsible of government and individual for actions against civilians.

On 10 March, the UK released a military intelligence brief revealing the Russian deployment of conscript troops and observed the decreased activity of Russian air operations over Ukraine. It also confirmed that 5000 Russian troops to have destroyed so far.

In recent days the influx of refugees has been more than expected and the UK has been facing the challenge in dealing the surge in refugees, hence one of the UK visa offices were found to have apologised to the entrants on its inability to assist in visa process. Upon the discussion with security services, the UK Home Secretary announced the shift in its visa programme to virtual to board in the eligible Ukrainians through plane, train and boat after email confirmation. Although the shift was made instant, it has faced criticism as it will facilitate all Ukrainians, UK Prime Minister explained that UK was taking cautions due to doubt on people to be armed or entering using fake identity.

Role of International Organisations
On 10 March, UN Secretary General António Guterres accused Russia for bombing the hospital facility in Mariupol despite an agreed ceasefire.

On 10 March, IMF authorized USD 1.4 billion as an emergency fund to Ukraine. It was given to support the immediate balance of payment needs. It also promised to help Ukraine design a “economic programme” to bring back growth. The IMF Managing Director said: “Once the war is over and a proper damage assessment can be performed, additional large support is likely to be needed to support reconstruction efforts.”

Implications of the war: The global fallout
From Africa, the IMF Chief remarked that the food security and fuel availability situation was worsening in Africa due to Russian invasion. The war has impacted the prices of the food commodities, reduced revenues from tourism and accessing financial service have become difficult. He added: “At this difficult moment, the Fund stands ready to help African countries reduce the cost of any needed policy adjustments through policy advice, capacity development, and lending.” Apart from this, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met Putin to talk on boosting cooperation and developments in Ukraine.

From South America, six countries have put forth a proposal to United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to sanction Russia. Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay have decided to exclude importing fertilizer from Russia as part of the sanction. According to Brazil's Agriculture Minister, said that Brazil being the top most importer of fertilizers must not be target of sanctions. Good imported from Russia such as NPK fertilizer, and beef have been affected due to the war in Ukraine.

On 10 March, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss on the alliance and growing complexity in the international. The Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen to be supporting Putin since the invasion and accusing the NATO and the US for invoking crisis in Ukraine.

From China, the effect of speedy inflation in the US and European Central Bank’s aiming for higher rates has resulted in de-listing of Chinese stocks in the US thereby pushing sellers to Chinese equity markets. It is believed that the war in Ukraine will further the inflation, increasing prices of oil and other commodities. On the other hand, China has denied supply of airplane parts to Russia, the reason are unknown, but Russia will set out to reach to Turkey and India for the same.

From India, Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (SPL) fifth largest producer of crude steel has said that the demand arising from the fall of supply of Steel due to the Ukraine war can benefit in shooting up the exports to 40 per cent. It projected that, it used to export 25 per cent of steel and is currently reaching the 35-40 per cent margin. Industry analysts predict that Indian and Chinese steel industries will see hike in production to supply the gaps in European market.

From Israel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will give speech in Israel Parliament on Russian invasion, which is seen as part of his agenda to gain support from international through video briefings.

From Global industries, the impact of the war is observed to be affecting the mass earning of the global companies due to rise in oil price, raw material cost and crush in profits in current year. In the start of 2022 analysts expected an 8.9 per cent boost in the earnings due to the change of scenario it estimates 2.8 per cent decline in forward earnings for European companies, 0.45 per cent in Asian companies and 0.02 per cent in the US firms. Apart from this, Rio Tinto, a metals and mining giant has announced to suspend commercial business with Russia, but the Rio executive stated that it will be very challenging for the company to survive without the imports from Russia. At the same time, Caterpillar and John Deere which are big construction equipment companies has also announced their suspension of business in Russia due to supply chain disruption challenges.

References: 

BBC live”, BBC, 10 March 2022

Gaurav Dogra “Global companies' earnings estimates hit by Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Reuters, 10 March 2022

Roberto Samora, “South American nations push to exclude fertilizer from Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 10 March 2022

Dan Williams, “Zelenskiy to address Israeli parliament, asks to speak to Holocaust centre,” Reuters, 10 March 2022

"Telephone conversation with Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz," Kremlin.ru, 09 March 2022

James Beardsworth, "Western Companies' Exodus from Russia Leaves Thousands of Russians' Livelihoods on the Line," The Moscow Times, 10 March 2022

"Russian Prices Rising Fastest in 24 Years on Ruble Collapse," The Moscow Times, 10 March 2022

"Talks between Russian, Ukrainian top diplomats begin in Antalya," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Lukashenko, Putin discuss situation near Chernobyl nuclear plant over phone — BelTA," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Russia to cease participation in Council of Europe, Foreign Ministry says," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Source reveals how many Donbass and Ukraine evacuees took refuge in Russia," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Kremlin Defers to Russian Military on Deadly Mariupol Hospital Attack," TASS, 10 March 2022

"West has 'serious concern' Putin could use chemical weapons in Kyiv," The Guardian, 10 March 2022

"Britain Says Russian Defense Ministry Admits Using Thermobaric Weapons In Ukraine," Radio Free Europe, 10 March 2022

"More than 40,000 civilians were evacuated from across Ukraine on Wednesday but authorities struggled to get people away from conflict zones around the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol," The Guardian, 10 March 2022

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 15," Al Jazeera, 10 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

FRANCE
Corsica: Protests over assault of nationalist figure lead to clashes with police 
On 10 March, France24 reported Corsica to have witnessed violent clashes between protesters and police. The clash was triggered after locals were angered by the assault of nationalist figure Yvan Colonna in prison. Colonna, who was captured in 2003 for the 1998 assassination of the Mediterranean island's top regional official Claude Erignac, is serving a life sentence. After being assaulted by a fellow prisoner on 02 March, Colonna is now in a coma. Some of the citizens in Corsica who consider Colonna as a "hero in a fight for independence" were disappointed by the incident and protested in Ajaccio, Calvi and Bastia. The protests quickly took a violent turn with demonstrators clashing with the police force. Colonna had requested to be moved to Corsica from his south of France detainment, however, this was denied as his offence made him a "special status detainee". On 08 March, Prime Minister Jean Castex did away with the status to reduce the situation from escalating. Meanwhile, French prosecutors charged Colonna’s assailant with attempted murder. (“Corsica protests turn to riots over assault of jailed nationalist Yvan Colonna,” France24, 10 March 2022) 

DENMARK
Prime Minister Frederiksen apologizes to Greenlandic Inuits separated from families for social experiment 70 years ago
On 10 March, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen directly apologized to Greenlandic Inuits’ group. Frederiksen addressed the six surviving members of the group and said: “What you were subjected to was terrible. It was inhumane. It was unfair. And it was heartless… We can take responsibility and do the only thing that is fair, in my eyes: to say sorry to you for what happened.” 22 Inuit children, ranging from five to eight years, were separated from their families and shipped to Copenhagen in 1950 as a part of an experiment to create a Danish-speaking elite. Although the parents were promised their return, they were never brought back to their original families. An inquiry into the impact of the experiment on the childrens’ lives concluded that most of them were negatively affected by the same. According to the Inuits’ lawyer Mads Pramming, the written apology followed by the financial compensation of NOK 250,000 was in itself  “a big success”. Prammings added: “... and now they will have a face-to-face.” (“Denmark PM says sorry to Greenland Inuits taken for 'heartless' social experiment,” The Guardian,10  March 2022)  

RUSSIA
Ukraine: Kremlin admits use of conscripts in invasion
On 09 March, the Kremlin’s Defense Ministry admitted to having deployed Russian conscripts into Ukraine. This followed repeated denials by President Vladimir Putin of having conscripts in the war. In a statement released by the Ministry, it said: “Unfortunately, we have discovered several facts of the presence of conscripts in units taking part in the special military operation in Ukraine. Practically all such soldiers have been pulled out to Russia.” Following the 24 February Russian invasion into Ukraine, mothers of those soldiers doing compulsory military service lost contact with their sons. This raised the possibility of Russia using conscripts. Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry has announced the launch of an investigation to penalize those who used conscripts, allegedly disobeying orders. (“Russia admits to use of conscripts in Ukraine invasion — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2022) 

REGIONAL
European Parliament votes in favour of banning ‘golden passports’ to Russians
On 09 March, the European Parliament members voted in favour of banning the ‘golden passport' schemes to Russians. The non-binding vote intends to bring an end to the purchase of citizenship that allowed for “oligarchs and corrupt politicians to buy their way into Europe” by 2025. The Parliament saw 595 members voting in favour of the ban, 12 voting against while 74 members abstained from voting altogether. The European Parliament hopes to increase the background checks for the procedure as well. The European Commission will now decide on how to implement the proposal leading to the EU’s national government concluding on the same. According to the Netherlands’ MEP Sophie In't Veldt: “The time of asking national governments nicely is over… [We need] the total complete abolition of this procedure, not simply to reduce it but to completely eliminate it.” (Jack Parrock, “EU parliament demands end to 'golden passports' for Russians,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2022) 

Ukraine: German Catholic Bishops' Conference comments on Russian invasion
On 09 March, German Catholic bishops attended the annual spring plenary of the German Bishops' Conference. Concerned about the situation in Ukraine, Bishop Bertram Meier of Augsburg expressed: “We value human rights and civic freedoms, we stand for the common security of states and the exchange between them on the basis of binding and fair rules. All of this is under attack with the invasion of Ukraine.” He called on Europe to be defended, allowing people to “live in free democracies”. Meier also justified Pope Francis for his unwillingness to denounce Russian actions, stating that he was clear on wanting the fighting to stop without picking sides. (“Russia admits to use of conscripts in Ukraine invasion — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2022) 

Ukraine: Lithuania changes Russian embassy’s address to “Ukrainian Heroes’ Street”
On 09 March, Vilnius Mayor Remigijus Simasius announced that the Russian embassy had a new address called the “Ukrainian Heroes’ Street”. This move follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Simasius said: “From today, the business card of every employee of the Russian embassy will be decorated with a note honouring Ukraine’s fighting, and everyone will have to think about the atrocities of the Russian regime against the peaceful Ukrainian nation when writing this street name. ” Lithuania has used such name changing tactics in the past as well to condemn Russian aggression. The week prior to 09 March, Latvia also had taken to a similar move by renaming the Russian embassy’s address to “Independent Ukraine Street”. (“Lithuania names road leading to Russian embassy 'Ukrainian Heroes' Street',” The Guardian, 10 March 2022) 

COVID-19 
Austria: Vaccine mandate to be suspended until further notice 
On 09 March, Austria's government announced that it would be suspending its COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Seeking an expert commission's advice, the mandate will be suspended and the situation will be reviewed after three months. Previously, the government required all adults to be inoculated against the virus; the lack of inoculation was to be penalized with EUR 3,600 from mid-March. Austria had become the country to declare a vaccine mandate amidst a devastating outbreak of the pandemic in November 2021. (Douglas Busvine, “Austria suspends coronavirus vaccine mandate,” POLITICO, 09 March 2022) 


09 March 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #144

War in Ukraine: Day 14

German Ministries of Economy and Environment approve closure of nuclear plants; Embargoes on Russian oil; Swedish Prime Minister Andersson denies calls by the opposition to join alliance

Photo : Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament, via Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War in Ukraine: Day 14

War on the ground: Airstrikes and evacuation

On 09 March, Russia launched an airstrike on a maternity and children’s hospital situated in the south-eastern city of Mariupol. It was confirmed by the head of the regional military administration, and President Zelensky tweeted that: “People, children are under the wreckage. Atrocity! How much longer will the world be an accomplice ignoring terror?” With the strike, Russia has once again breached the ceasefire, which was agreed for 12 hours in six cities, including Mariupol. 

On 09 March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister declared the 12-hour ceasefire in six areas which Russia agreed in permitting civilians to flee the war zones. The six corridors include “Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia, Sumy to Poltava, Izyum to Lozova, Volnovakha to Pokrovsk in Donetsk,” and other places routed to capital were Vorzel, Borodyanka, Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel. With the failure of previous attempts in moving people out of Ukraine, the top development of the day was Sumy becoming the main point;close to 7000 people were evacuated. While the evacuation took place in the planned areas, the Sumy Regional Governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyi accused Russia of launching airstrikes in a residential area, killing 22 civilians. 

On 09 March, Ukraine’s General Staff of Armed Forces released a statement on “operative information,” saying that the Ukraine forces were firmly fighting against the continuing attacks launched by the Russian military. It termed it “covert mobilisation,” where Russia was found to be using its training camps to carry out the attacks. 

Apart from the above, the Polish Border Guard agency reported that close to 1.33 million people have fled to Poland, and the government already hosts two million refugees since the Russian invasion. The first success in the evacuation at Sumy gives hope for a ceasefire, at least in a few parts of Ukraine; the Ukraine army observed this as slow in Russian progression as Ukraine defends strong in the areas of strikes and carries out the evacuation. 

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to the UK House of Commons chamber

On 08 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the British MPs in the House of Commons chamber, becoming the first leader to speak in the chamber. The speech covered the struggle of Ukraine in the 13 days of the war against Russia. President Zelensky highlighted four key areas. First, the resistance, strength, and heroism of the Ukrainian military to stand the Russian attacks. Second, the frustration of how relations with NATO have become unfavourable. Third, the rising humanitarian crisis and deaths of children, civilians due to attacks, food and water shortage. Fourth, requesting the UK for more support and to recognize Russia as a terrorist state. He also thanked the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson for the help given to Ukraine.

On 08 March, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson discussed Zelenskyy’s video address that was broadcasted to the Members of Parliament in the Commons. Johnson said the speech had moved the hearts of everyone in the House. He further called the whole house to support Ukraine and supply Kyiv with the needed military equipment to defend itself. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer also paid his tribute to Zelenskyy’s bravery. He said Zelenskyy could have fled amidst the invasion, and “no-one would have blamed him for fleeing.”

The Moscow view: Claims by Russia

On 09 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to lay economic restrictions on the exports from other countries and imports into Russia. As per the decree: “Ensure implementation of the following special economic measures until December 31, 2022: export and import ban of products and/or raw materials in accordance with lists to be defined by the government of the Russian Federation.” According to Putin, the decree was implemented to safeguard the security of Russia and ensure the continuous operation of its industries. The announcement is also observed as a counter to the economic sanctions by the West. 

On 09 March, the Defense Ministry of Russia claimed the finding of secret documents which disclosed the plans of Kyiv to attack the Russian Separatists group in eastern Ukraine. Apart from this, Russia announced a ceasefire again for the public to leave the city. The order covered Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mariupol. 

On 09 March, Russia announced the meeting of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine’s Minister Kuleba. The meet will be the first of its kind since the invasion and is scheduled to take place in Turkey, which Turkey’s Foreign Minister proposed to hold it under trilateral format. 

While Russia proceeds with the war in Ukraine and counter-sanctions the West, the impact of the sanctions levied is well observed inside Russia, especially amongst its citizens. Russia’s economy is taking a hit with currency crashes, a ban on airspace, and the withdrawal of more than 200 MNCs. The gold class services enjoyed by the Russian have ended with no card payment being accepted, limits in withdrawing foreign cash, no more buying of dresses from Western shops, no access to digital services, and no more Starbucks or McDonalds. Although it lays out a grim situation for the Russian, the support for Putin has not wavered down. 

The West view: Responses from the US and Europe 

On 09 March, the US rejected Poland’s offer to receive MiG-29 fighter jets to transfer them to Ukraine. The Pentagon rejected the proposal as it raised serious concerns with the NATO alliance. The Pentagon said the prospects of flying a combat aircraft from NATO territory into a war zone could have implications for the entire bloc’s alliance. As reported by Euronews: “Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby questioned the prospect of jets departing from a US/NATO base in Germany to fly into Ukrainian airspace contested with Russia.” 

On 08 March, US President Joe Biden announced that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would never be successful in taking over the whole of Ukraine. He said: “Putin seems determined to continue on his murderous path no matter the cost…Putin may be able to take a city, but he’ll never be able to hold the country. And if we do not respond to Putin’s assault on global peace and stability today, the cost of freedom, and to the American people, will be even greater tomorrow.” Biden also commended the strong resistance the Ukrainian people put up in the face of war. 

On 08 March, Biden said that the US would ban Russian oil and gas. The US would additionally release 60 million barrels of oil from its reserves to avoid an energy shortage. He also assured security assistance to Ukraine, which would be worth more than USD 1 billion. Biden said: “Shipments of defensive weapons are arriving in Ukraine every day from the United States, and we in the United States are the ones coordinating delivery of our allies and partners of similar weapons — from Germany to Finland to the Netherlands.” He also reaffirmed the US support in providing humanitarian aid to the people of Ukraine.

The UK also announced to phase out Russian oil imports on the same day by 2022. The Ministers in the UK are also trying to make it into an offence for planned owned or chartered by Russians to be made a criminal offence. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the UK was: “One of the first countries to ban Russian aircraft, and today we are going even further by making it a criminal offence for Russian aircraft to operate in UK airspace.” This was aimed to target private jets registered in third countries but are used by wealthy Russians. The government further announced new trade sanctions to prevent UK exports of aviation or space-related technology to Russia, even insurance-related services. 

The Global Fallouts: International implications of the Ukraine war 

On 08 March, the International Monetary Fund’s executive board proposed to extend USD 1.4 billion as emergency funding to Ukraine. This is the third segment of funding proposed for Ukraine after it gave USD 700 million in December 2021 and allocated USD 2.7 billion as emergency reserves for August. As reported by Reuters: “The IMF chief said the war had delivered a shock to the world economy, sending energy and food prices higher, displacing millions of people and eroding business confidence.” 

Also, on 08 March, FIFA announced to postpone Ukraine’s world cup qualification play-off against Scotland. The match was supposed to be held on 24 March but postponed the qualifier after Russia invaded Ukraine. FIFA said: “Following consultation with UEFA and the four participating member associations in Path A of the European qualifying play-offs, it was unanimously agreed in the spirit of solidarity to accept.”  

On the same day, energy giant Shell said it would be withdrawing all its services and involvement in Russia. The announcement came as Shell’s Chief Executive Officer, Ben Van Beurden, apologised for the company’s move to purchase a cargo of Russian crude oil. He said: “We are acutely aware that our decision last week to purchase a cargo of Russian crude oil to be refined into products like petrol and diesel – despite being made with security of supplies at the forefront of our thinking – was not the right one and we are sorry.”  

On 09 March, Bitcoins prices rose over USD 41,000 amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This comes even after the crypto platform of Coinbase said it blocked 25,000 wallets that are related to Russia. In addition, the platform said it would block Russian individuals or entities that are speculated to be involved in illicit activities. Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said: “We shared them with the government to further support sanctions enforcement…Sanctions play a vital role in promoting national security and deterring unlawful aggression and Coinbase fully supports these efforts by government authorities.”  

Also, on 09 March, Venezuela freed two jailed US citizens as a goodwill gesture. The release of prisoners came as Venezuela had a visit by a high-level delegation from Washington. US President Joe Biden said: “Tonight, two Americans who were wrongfully detained in Venezuela will be able to hug their families once more.” The move signals Venezuela’s interest in improving relations with the US amid the war in Eastern Europe.  

On 09 March, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina thanked Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for evacuating Bangladeshis from Ukraine. The citizens of Bangladesh were among students from Pakistan, Nepal, and Tunisia who were evacuated under India’s Operation Ganga. 

Also, on 09 March, Scotland-based food and drink firms have also decided to halt their exports to Russia. As reported by BBC: “Scotch makers such as Edrington, Diageo and Chivas Brothers have all confirmed they have suspended Russian sales.” Furthermore, the Albanian capital of Tirana was the latest European city to rename a section of its street near the Russian embassy to support Ukraine. They renamed it as Free Ukraine street, and the city’s mayor Erion Veliaj said: “The Russian [embassy staff] will have to work, live and get their mail at a Free Ukraine street address.” 

References: 

War in Ukraine: West hits Russia with oil bans and gas curbs,” BBC, 09 March 2022

Alasdair Sandford, “Ukraine war: US rejects Poland's offer to supply fighter planes to Kyiv,” Euronews, 09 March 2022

Christy Cooney, "Ukraine: Russian planes can be detained in UK," BBC, 09 March 2022

"War in Ukraine: More Scots firms halt sales to Russia," BBC, 09 March 2022

Tirana renames Russian embassy street 'Free Ukraine' in show of support for Kyiv,” Euronews, 09 March 2022

Vivian Sequera, Matt Spetalnick and Diego Oré “Venezuela frees two Americans after talks with U.S.,” Reuters, 09 March 2022

IMF board to consider $1.4 bln in funding for Ukraine on Wednesday," Reuters, 09 March 2022

FIFA postpones Ukraine's World Cup qualification playoff against Scotland,” Reuters, 09 March 2022

Aditi Sangal, Adrienne Vogt, Meg Wagner, Jessie Yeung, Steve George, Sana Noor Haq, George Ramsay, Ed Upright, Amir Vera and Maureen Chowdhury,"Biden says "Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin"," CNN, 08 March 2022

"Biden says the US will ban all Russian energy imports,” BBC, 08 March 2022

Ukraine: Boris Johnson says Zelensky's address 'moved hearts," BBC, 08 March 2022

Ukraine: Keir Starmer pays tribute to Zelensky's bravery,”BBC, 08 March 2022

Crypto platform blocks thousands of Russia-linked wallets,” BBC, 08 March 2022

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews

GERMANY

German court rules far-right AfD party a suspected threat to democracy

On 08 March, a German court declared the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to be a suspected threat to democracy. This allows for the domestic intelligence agency to monitor the activities of the opposition party. In March 2021, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) had legally challenged the AfD calling on the court to put the party under observation; however, the challenge was dismissed. Meanwhile, the court in Cologne found “sufficient indications of anti-constitutional goals within the AfD”. This classification permits intelligence agents to monitor party communications and deploy spies. The AfD, founded in 2013, began as an anti-euro entity that is now both an anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party. (“German court rules far-right AfD party a suspected threat to democracy,” The Guardian, 08 March 2022) 

SWEDEN

NATO Accession: Prime Minister Andersson denies calls by the opposition to join alliance

On 08 March, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson turned down calls by the opposition to consider acceding into NATO. Andersson stated that applying for accession now would further jeopardize European security. The Prime Minister added: “I have been clear during this whole time in saying that what is best for Sweden's security and for the security of this region of Europe is that the government has a long-term, consistent and predictable policy and that is my continued belief.” Sweden’s foreign policy is founded on non-participation in military alliances; however, it has created close ties with NATO following growing Russian aggression in the Baltic region. (“Swedish PM rejects opposition calls to consider joining NATO,” Reuters, 08 March 2022) 

ENERGY

Germany: Ministries of Economy and Environment approve closure of nuclear plants, LNG terminal to be opened by 2024

On 08 March, Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck announced that the country’s first LNG terminal would be functional by 2024. Additionally, commenting on the closure of nuclear plants in the country, the Ministries of Economy and Environment released a joint statement that read: “As a result of weighing up the benefits and risks, an extension of the operating lives of the three remaining nuclear power plants is not recommended, also in view of the current gas crisis.” Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany now considers creating alternative energy sources to make up for the fast-closing nuclear plants; other energy sources under consideration include solar and wind power while relying on coal-based power plants for emergencies. Russia accounts for two-thirds of Germany’s natural gas imports. (“Germany vetoes nuclear power extension, aims for LNG terminal in 2024,” Reuters, 08 March 2022) 

The UK: Embargoes on Russian oil and gas imports lead to price hike

On 09 March, the BBC reported diesel prices in the UK to have crossed GBP 90 for the first time affecting public life. According to the RAC motoring group, the average diesel price saw a 165.24 pence surge – the second biggest daily jump since 2000. Following the embargo on Russian gas and oil, European governments have been looking for alternative sources to meet their energy requirements while aiming to increase output. Meanwhile, a barrel of crude oil saw an increase of 1.3 per cent in cost. According to RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams: “The cost of a filling a 55-litre family car with petrol is now GBP 87 - GBP 7 more than it was at the start of the year. Diesel drivers are even worse off with a tank now costing more than GBP 90 for the first time ever - GBP 8 more than in early January.” (Russell Hotten & Daniel Thomas, “Ukraine war: Warning Russian oil move will hit UK living costs,” BBC, 09 March 2022) 


08 March 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #143

War in Ukraine: Day 13

Annalena Baerbock appreciated as a top diplomat; Germany excludes entry procedures for refugees; Women workers strike in Germany

Photo : Reuters/Umit Bektas


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews

War in Ukraine: Day 13

War on the ground: Military actions and reactions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on a late-night video on 07 March, accused Russia of attacking fleeing civilians. Zelenskyy’s accusations came after Ukraine rejected Moscow’s humanitarian corridors, leading directly to Russia or Belarus. He also addressed the ongoing war and boosted the people's morale by promising to stay in the capital until the war was won. 

Russian air attacks destroyed a bread faculty in the northern region. The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine has been deepening and the country faces an imminent refugee crisis as food, water, heat, and medicine have grown increasingly scarce due to Russia intensifying its shelling. 

On 08 March, Russian forces launched hundreds of missiles and artillery attacks in the residential areas of Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces defended Ukraine’s largest port city of Odesa from Russian ships. The Ukrainian forces said they had killed more than 11,000 Russian troops. However, sources from Moscow only confirmed the loss of 500 soldiers. On the same day, nine civilians were killed, this included two children who were bombed by an airstrike in the Ukrainian city of Sumy. In addition, a senior Russian General, Vitaly Gerasimov, the first deputy commander of Russia’s 41st army, was killed in Kharkiv. 

The Moscow view: Statements from Russia

On International Women's day, Russia's President Vladimir Putin addressed the mothers, wives, sisters, brides, and girlfriends of Russian soldiers and officers. He said: "I understand how you are worrying about your loved ones and family members.” He also assured that conscripts and reservists would not take part in the military operation against Ukraine. Kremlin mentioned: "Missions are carried out only by professional troops."

At the third round of Russian-Ukrainian talks held in Belarus, Russia said it wanted to settle the issue with Ukraine when the latter recognized the Russian ownership of Crimea. The Head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, also put forward the requirement of up-keeping the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. However, as reported by TASS: “The third round of Russian-Ukrainian talks, held in Belarus on 07 March, did not bring the desired results, representatives of both Moscow and Kiev stated.”

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned that if Germany and the West place a ban on Russian oil, Moscow may respond by cutting gas supplies. He said: "rejection of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market.” The US had been pushing for a potential ban on its allies. However, later on 07 March, Germany and Netherlands rejected the plan. The EU gets about 40 per cent of its gas and 30 per cent of its oil from Russia. These critical energy sources do not have easy substitutes. 

On 08 March the Russian armed forces organized a large-scale evacuation of 173,000 people from the Donbas region to Russia. The Ukrainians were accommodated in hotels, sanatoriums, and boarding houses. The Russian Interagency Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Relief also said they had made possibilities for children to go to kindergartens while they were also looking to arrange temporary employment for adults.  

The West View: Responses from the UNHCR, UK and the US

On 08 March, the Commissioner of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi announced that the number of refugees displaced from Ukraine had reached two million. Grandi said: “If the war continues we will start seeing people that have no resources and no connections… That will be a more complex situation to manage for European countries going forward.” Meanwhile, Japan has announced that they would be ready to accept Ukrainian refugees. 

Separately, the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace acknowledged that the country’s visa application processing had not been quick and called for speeding of the process. Wallace further added that the war would end Putin, saying: “Whatever we think about President Putin, he is done. He is a spent force in the world… he is responsible for thousands of Russian soldiers being killed, responsible for innocent people being killed, civilians being killed in Ukraine.” During a press conference with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas called on the West to seal loopholes present in the imposed sanctions. Kallas called for limiting cryptocurrencies and completely banning Russia and Belarus from the SWIFT payments system. 

During the UN Security Council session, the US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that Putin intended to “brutalize Ukraine”.  She added: “The humanitarian toll of President Putin’s war on Ukraine is mounting. Children are dying, people are fleeing their homes - for what?” Meanwhile, three Belarusian banks and more Russian oligarchs are set to be impacted by the European Commission’s new sanctions. 

The Global Fallouts

The refugee crisis is likely to be a large fallout. The large-scale displacement of the Ukrainians is the fastest-growing refugee crisis since the Second World War. The numbers are only expected to increase, henceforth. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), the increased refugee inflow will call for long-term humanitarian solutions. The IRC’s Senior Global Communications Officer Nancy Dent added that it was not a situation with a quick fix.

References: 

Daniel Thomas and Micheal Race, “War in Ukraine: Russia says it may cut gas supplies if oil ban goes ahead,” BBC, 08 March 2022

Martin Farrer, “Russia Ukraine war: what we know on day 13 of the Russian invasion,” The Guardian, 08 March 2022

Russia hopes to find solution with Ukraine on recognition of Crimea, DPR, LPR," TASS, 08 March 2022

Conscripts, reservists don’t and won’t take part in operation in Ukraine — Putin,” TASS, 08 March 2022

“Donbass evacuates more than 173,000 people to Russia - Russian ministry,” TASS, 08 March 2022

“Russian general killed near Kharkiv, claims Ukraine as war enters day 13: Top points,” Hindustan Times, 08 March 2022 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 13,” Al Jazeera, 08 March 2022 

Ukraine: Number of refugees reaches 2 million, UN says,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2022.

Andrew Sparrow, “UK politics live: war in Ukraine will contribute to Britons facing ‘biggest fall in real-terms disposable income for 50 years,” The Guardian, 08 March 2022.

Jennifer Rankin. Miranda Bryant and Martin Farrer, “Russia-Ukraine war: humanitarian corridor opened from Sumy; Moscow threatens to cut gas supplies to Europe – live,” The Guardian, 08 March 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY

Women workers in Amazon warehouses in Germany launch strike

On 07 March, Germany’s largest trade union Verdi gathered its employees in six Amazon warehouses in Germany to protest against bad working conditions. The strike comes as “Equal Pay Day and International Women’s Day,” which occurs on the same day. The trade union demanded recognition of labour agreements in the retail and mail-order areas. One of the woman leaders who took part in the strike said: “The individual, their performance and personal circumstances of employees are ignored. Those [employees] are often women, for example, single mothers.” In response, Amazon countered by indicating the recent rise in the salary of its logistics workers and saying that it gives a platform for professional development regardless of gender. (“Germany: Amazon workers stage 2-day strike,” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2022)

Germany to accept inflow of refugees without asylum procedures

On 06 March, German Interior Minister, Nancy Faeser said in the recent German newspaper that, regardless of the nationality of the refugees escaping from the Ukraine war will be accepted by Germany. The UN expects more than 1.5 million people to flee from Ukraine and settle in nearby countries. According to Faeser: “The vast majority of those who have fled are Ukrainian nationals. People from other countries who already had a permanent right of residence in Ukraine bring this status with them.” She also added that the complicated asylum procedures will be excepted for the ease of the refugees entering the country. (“Germany to accept refugees from Ukraine regardless of nationality,” Deutsche Welle, 06 March 2022)

Annalena Baerbock appreciated as a top diplomat across Europe

On 08 March, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock marked the completion of three months as the first woman to become Germany’s Foreign Minister. She has gained appreciation across Europe for “clarity and steadiness,” and for taking upfront changes in Germany’s Foreign Policy. On 03 March, the monthly Deutschlandtrend poll disclosed that Baerbock was considered the second most valued politician after the German Chancellor. The reason behind the growing support is due to her stance and approach to the Russian invasion. (“Annalena Baerbock: Germany's first female foreign minister flourishes in a crisis,” Deutsche Welle, 07 March 2022)

RUSSIA

Symbol “Z” invoke curiosity as found marked in the Russian military

On 07 March, Russian gymnast Ivan Kuliak will face disciplinary procedure conducted by International Gymnastics Federation for wearing the symbol “Z.” In recent days, the symbol has been found to be present on the cars, advertisements, bus shelters, recently in the Serbian demonstrations and social media. When looked into, the audience of the Russian news channel mentioned that the “Z” was a marking to distinguish the Russian military. According to the US Air Force Lt Col Tyson Wetzel: “de-confliction measure to help prevent fratricide.” (Paul Kerley and Robert Greenall, “Ukraine war: Why has 'Z' become a Russian pro-war symbol?,” BBC, 07 March 2022)


07 March 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #142

War in Ukraine: Day 12

Denmark to hold referendum to overturn "opt-out from EU defence policy" on 01 June; Oil price shoots in Northern Ireland; US to support Moldova in tackling refugee crisis

Photo : Reuters Graphics


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

War in Ukraine: Day Twelve

Continued shelling soar the gas and oil prices  

Cities in Ukraine faced shelling in the centre, north and southern regions of the country. Ukraine’s Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovich said: “The latest wave of missile strikes came as darkness fell.” The recent shellings caused evacuations in the regions of Mariupol and Volnovakha. The war in Ukraine had even impacted the global supply chains which resulted in an increase in the cost of food. Fertilizer companies too have been facing a shortage of raw resources as more than 60 countries bought essential raw materials from Russia. 

Also, due to the war, the gas and oil price has soared 10 per cent, while stocks have taken a plunge as the US and Europe consider a ban on Russian crude oil. The rise in prices and the plunge of stocks hint at a possible stagflationary shock for world markets. Ukraine’s military has also speculated a possible Russian invasion on the capital of Kyiv as Russian troops were advancing towards it with tank and motorized infantry units.

President Zelenskyy’s video address

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a video address on 06 March, spoke on Russia violating the humanitarian corridor that led to the death of eight civilians. He criticized the Western leaders’ failure to respond to Russia’s plans to attack Ukraine’s military-industrial complex. He said: “The audacity of the aggressor is a clear signal to the west that the sanctions imposed on Russia are not sufficient.” 

Zelenskyy further asked the UN’s top court to issue an emergency ruling to stop Russia’s invasion. Ukraine argued that Moscow claimed justification of war, citing a faulty interpretation of the genocide law. Zelenskyy urged the international community to further impose sanctions on Russia and requested military aircraft. He said: “If the invasion (of Ukraine) continues and Russia has not abandoned its plans against Ukraine, then a new sanctions package is needed... for the sake of peace.”

Russia’s counter claims: On humanitarian corridors and Ukraine’s attack on nuclear reactor

Russia claimed that Ukrainian Security forces and the nationalist Azov battalion planned to blow up an experimental nuclear reactor at the Kharkiv Institute. Russia’s Defense Ministry released a statement: “The Ukrainian military and the Azov battalion militants are planning to blow up the reactor and accuse the Russian Armed Forces of allegedly launching a missile strike on an experimental nuclear system.” 

Russia also announced a ceasefire to open humanitarian corridors for four Ukrainian cities. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Mariupol were allowed to open humanitarian corridors to evacuate citizens. Russia’s Inter-Agency Humanitarian Response Coordination Center said: “at the personal request by President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron to President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, the Armed Forces of Russia announce a ceasefire from 10:00 on 07 March 2022 for humane purposes and are opening humanitarian corridors.”

External actors in the crisis: Responses from the UK, Northern Ireland, China and Anonymous

UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson held discussions with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in London regarding additional sanctions on Russia. The UK has earmarked GBP 74 million to help Ukraine financially while the Parliament will be voting on an Economic Crime Bill. The Economic Crime Bill would make it easier to sanction individuals. In four days, Northern Ireland announced to raise GBP 1.4 million in response to Ukraine’s humanitarian appeal for those affected by the conflict.  

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China’s Red cross would provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Wang’s statements came a few hours after Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison urged Beijing to denounce Moscow. Wang also stressed China’s strong ties with Russia and reiterated a call for diplomatic talks to continue. 

Anonymous, the hacking collective claimed to have hacked into Russian channels and broadcasts. The collective mentioned that they showed footage of the war in Ukraine. Anonymous said: “Remember us when various powers turn their attention towards us because it will happen…We can change the world for the better. That has always been the idea”.

From the ground: Plights of the people evacuating Ukraine 

The people of Ukraine rejected Moscow’s proposed humanitarian corridors as it suggested the transportation of civilians to Belarus and Russia. The vast majority of the people fleeing Ukraine were headed towards Poland and among those fleeing, where children with cancer who were being evacuated by the non-governmental organisations. At the same time, the war in Ukraine resulted in an exodus of Indian students studying in Belarus to leave the country despite assurances from the authorities and their universities. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

DENMARK

Prime Minister Frederiksen announces referendum on 01 June 2022

On 06 March, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced a referendum to be held on 01 June. The referendum would decide whether or not the country should continue with its “opt-out from EU defence policy”. The move follows the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During a news conference, Frederiksen said: “Historic times call for historic decisions… (the government) very clearly calls on Danes to lift the opt-out on defence.” Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has also promised to expand defense spending by NOK 7 billion over a period of two years. Frederiksen added: “For me, as prime minister, this is a values-based decision… Putin’s pointless and brutal attack on Ukraine has heralded a new era in Europe, a new reality.” The referendum is expected to be a part of a newly-approved parliamentary agreement called the Folketing. (“Denmark to hold referendum on scrapping EU defence opt-out,” The Guardian, 06 March 2022) 

NORTHERN IRELAND

Northern Ireland reports an increase in oil prices

On 07 March, Northern Ireland reported the increase in oil prices which have shot up by 35 per cent since the Russian invasion. Two-thirds of people in Northern Ireland depend on oil for heating purposes, which is the highest rate in Western Europe. After seven days of the invasion, the oil prices have increased from GBP 555.72 to GBP 758.11 within a span of one week. According to National Energy Action (NEA) it expects fuel poverty amongst households to be expected to double. This has resulted in oil companies selling the oil at losses as the price rise and demand falls. (Jessica Black, “Energy prices: NI oil prices up 35% since Russia invades Ukraine,” BBC, 06 March 2022)

NORWAY

Cabinet Reshuffle: Minister for Petroleum and Energy replaced 

On 07 March, the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store’s office announced the replacement of the Minister for Petroleum and Energy Marte Mjoes Persen with Terje Lien Aasland. Meanwhile, Persen was appointed in the Ministry for Labour and Social Inclusion.

The change of ministers during the concerning energy crisis is crucial given Norway is Europe’s top producer of oil and gas. Aasland has been a member of parliament for 16 years and is currently the head of the Energy and Environment committee. Persen replaces Hadia Tajik, who had resigned recently. (“Norway names Labour's Aasland as oil minister in cabinet shuffle,” Reuters, 07 March 2022) 

GENDER

Women in Sport reports more than one million girls drop out of sports after primary school

On 07 March, a recent study by Women in Sport found that more than one million girls in the UK drop out of sports when they become teenagers. The main reasons behind the dropout were due to “fear of judgement and lack of confidence.” As per the survey 43 per cent of girls expressed that they were no longer interested in sports after their primary level of education which sums to 1.3 million all over the UK. The stats showed that eight out of 10 girls accepted that the percentage of people who didn’t take part exceeded those who were active. The Women in Sport said: “Teenage girls are not voluntarily leaving the sport, they are being pushed out as a consequence of deep-rooted gender stereotypes. We must all do more to reverse this trend and not continue to accept this as inevitable.” (Matthew Weaver, “More than 1 million girls in the UK lose interest in sport as teenagers,” The Guardian, 07 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

The US extends support to Moldova to handle the refugee crisis

On 06 March, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US stands united with Moldova as the country experiences inflow of huge number of refugees as a result of the war in Ukraine. So far, 230,000 refugees have gone across the Moldovan border to escape from the Russian attacks. According to Moldovan President Maia Sandu: “In this region now there is no possibility for us to feel safe.” The US administration has urged for humanitarian aid of EUR 2.5 billion to support Moldova in handling the refugee influx. (“US top diplomat reassures Moldova amid Ukraine crisis,” Deutsche Welle, 06 March 2022)


05 March 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #141

Presidential Elections 2022: Zemmour guilty of copyright infringement

Benefits of implementing 5G network in Europe; Sweden to pull out its troops from Mali by June 2023

Photo : Reuters/Eric Gaillard


IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

FRANCE

Presidential Elections 2022: Zemmour guilty of copyright infringement in the campaign video

On 04 March, French far-right presidential candidate Éric Zemmour was found guilty of copyright infringement in the video launching his presidential campaign. Zemmour used unauthorized film clips from Luc Besson’s 1999 biopic of Joan of Arc and newsreels from in the 10-minute campaign video. Zemmour has been penalized EUR 70,000 to be paid to directors François Ozon and Besson, who were the plaintiffs of the case. The video, posted on 30 November 2021, also included clippings from France24; the media house had opposed the move by calling for immediate removal of the same. (“Far-right Zemmour guilty of copyright infringement in presidential campaign video,” France24, 04 March 2022) 

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Germany: Tesla’s Gigafactory plant gets approval

On 04 March, Tesla’s Gigafactory plant on the outskirts of Berlin received its final approval. It now competes in the battery-powered car market with other European carmakers. Since its launch in 2019, the plant saw slow progress due to the opposition it faced from green groups citing the environmental impacts of the project. The Premier of Brandenburg Dietmar Woidke says: “This approval process was a mammoth task… (it is) a little ray of sunshine in challenging times.” Tesla’s initiative has brought German carmakers like Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes Benz to invest in battery research. (Merlin Sugue and Joshua Posaner, “Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory gets green light,” POLITICO, 04 March 2022) 

Europe’s implementation of 5G network bridging the regional digital divide 

On 04 March, Nokia, a Finnish multinational telecom giant, mentioned how the implementation of the 5G network could make the internet faster and benefit multiple sectors in Europe. The fifth-generation mobile network would advance technology in healthcare, mining, and robotics used in factories. Nokia’s Vice President for Europe Jan van Tetering said: “I believe that 5G and enterprise will have a profound impact on the way enterprises can do business and become more efficient, to become perhaps even more agile.” Tetering also mentioned how Japan and Korea were leading in the field of 5G implementation for consumers, but Europe had more potential to be a key player in the global market. Tetering further said: “We still have a lot of manufacturing happening inside Europe and that’s where I think Europe could be in a sweet spot in that part of the 5G.” (Pascale Davies, “5G will boost Europe’s tech and bridge the digital divide, says Nokia,” Euronews, 04 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Report on the UK’s support for aid workers in Afghanistan 

On 04 March, a year after the UK’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, questionable support was offered to aid workers in the region. As cited by the BBC: “A report by the Commons International Development Committee found ministers were too slow to provide help to humanitarian workers and Afghans.” Many Afghan aid workers working in Afghanistan felt abandoned as the schemes in place by the UK government were not able to adequately support their evacuation and settlement. Committee’s Chairwoman Sarah Champion said: “We are deeply grateful to aid workers - be they British, Afghan or of other nationalities - for all they have done for the people of Afghanistan…But we are ashamed that the government did not give them the support that they needed during the UK’s withdrawal, or now, during the complex task of delivering an aid programme under Taliban rule.” (Becky Morton, “Afghanistan: MPs’ ashamed’ over support for aid workers,” BBC, 04 March 2022)

Mali: Sweden to pull 220 of its soldiers by June 2023

On 03 March, Sweden announced the withdrawal of their UN-authorized peacekeeping troops a year earlier, by June 2023. The Swedish Armed Forces said: “In recent times, conditions have changed in the country, but until our last soldier is home, we continue to conduct operations just as usual.” They did not specify a reason for the withdrawal but had mentioned that the presence of Russian military contractors in the West African state was a reason for contention. A Spokesperson for the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) said: “We will continue our important work with the Swedish contingent until they leave…Regardless of Sweden’s participation, we hope they will continue to provide political support to the efforts of the United Nations in Mali.” (“Sweden announces early pullout of troops from UN Mali mission,” Reuters, 03 March 2022)


04 March 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #140

Top five developments in Ukraine – Day nine of conflict

French President confirms candidacy for election; Moldova to apply to join the EU; Sweden to summon Russian representative for airspace violation

Photo : Zaporizhzhya NPP via YouTube/via Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Top five developments in Ukraine – Day eight of conflict

Russian forces capture Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after site hit by a projectile

On 04 March, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant which is Europe’s biggest nuclear plant was set ablaze after the site was hit by a projectile. Located in southeast Ukraine, Russian forces doused the fire after seizing the plant. The plant is reported to have returned to normalcy with operations progressing unaffected. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Rafael Grossi alleges the projectile to be of Russian origin while the Russian Defense Ministry pointed fingers at Ukrainian saboteurs. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called out to the Europeans in a video address: “Europeans, please wake up. Tell your politicians – Russian troops are shooting at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine.”

Russia restricts access to multiple foreign media houses; Parliament passes law declaring jail term for disinformation attempts

On 04 March, Russia curbed access to foreign media houses such as the BBC, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Deutsche Welle among others. The Kremlin’s media regulator Roskomnadzor claimed that these news organizations were creating false narratives regarding the Ukraine conflict, essentially creating an anti-Russian view. In a statement released by Roskomnadzor, it said: “Access has been restricted to a host of information resources owned by foreigners… The grounds for restricting access to these information resources on the territory of the Russian Federation was their deliberate and systematic circulation of materials containing false information.” Meanwhile, undeterred by the move, the BBC announced that it would return to Cold War technology to provide updates to those Russians and Ukrainians whose “fundamental right” had been denied. The media organization is set to broadcast four hours of news every day in English across Ukraine and parts of Russia using shortwave radio. According to Deutsche Welle, Russian journalists are expected to publish information provided by official Russian sources.  

The State Duma (lower house of Parliament) passed a bill approving jail terms of 15 years to those found guilty of spreading false information or “fake” reports regarding the Russian military. Separately, the Kremlin has refuted allegations that it plans to impose martial law in the country. Expecting a declaration of the move to follow the Federation Council’s (upper house of Parliament) extraordinary session on 04 March, thousands of Russians have begun leaving Russia. 

Global stocks and RUB fall while oil, gold, metal and grain rates rise; LSE cancels trade with 27 Russia-linked firms

Following the Russian shelling at Zaporizhzhia, European shares witnessed a downslide while the Russian rouble diminished by 2.35 per cent to 108.70 per USD. The Moscow Stock Exchange has been closed since 28 February. Meanwhile, the oil prices are set to see a strong comeback, one not seen since mid-2020. Commodity markets are also expected to have huge gains as the Chicago Board of Trade witnessed a 40 per cent rise in its wheat futures contract, 16 per cent in corn and 5 per cent in soybeans.  

On 03 and 04 March, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) ended trading with a total of 35 firms having strong connections to Russia. Major firms suspended include Gazprom, Sberbank, Severstal, EN+, Rosneft and VK. These companies trade global depositary receipts (GDR) and American depositary receipts (ADR) with the LSE. The LSE stated that the decision was taken after considering the “market conditions, and in order to maintain orderly markets”.  

Ikea halts retail operations in Russia

Ikea, the furniture giant, announced that it would shut down its stores in Russia as imports and exports would also be brought to a halt. The decision affecting around 15,000 workers, also saw people flocking to its store. The company released an official statement, saying: “The war has had a huge human impact already. It is also resulting in serious disruptions to supply chain and trading conditions… For all of these reasons, the company groups have decided to temporarily pause Ikea operations in Russia.”  

UNHRC condemns Russian HRVs in Ukraine, appoints investigative commission; Kuleba accuses Russian soldiers of committing rape in Ukrainian cities

On 04 March, the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) met in Geneva to vote on a Ukraine-proposed draft resolution condemning Russia’s alleged human rights violations (HRVs) in Ukraine. The UNHRC saw 32 members voting in favour of the resolution while 13 members abstained; Russia and Eritrea voted against the same. The Council also appointed a three-person commission to investigate the same while considering the possibility of war crimes. The commission, working alongside the ICC and a separate UN team on Ukraine, is expected to produce a report on its findings by early 2023.  

Meanwhile, during an event in London’s Chatham House, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba accused Russian soldiers of having committed rape in his country. Kuleba said: “When bombs fall on your cities, when soldiers rape women in the occupied cities - and we have numerous cases of, unfortunately, when Russian soldiers rape women in Ukrainian cities - it's difficult, of course, to speak about the efficiency of international law.” 

References:

Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” Reuters, 04 March 2022. 

Emma Farge, “UN rights body approves probe into alleged Russian violations in Ukraine,” Reuters, 04 March 2022. 

Russia blocks access to BBC and Voice of America websites,” Reuters, 04 March 2022. 

Pavel Polityuk, Aleksandar Vasovic and John Irish, “Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest,” Reuters, 04 March 2022. 

Russia restricts access to DW's website,” Deutsche Welle, 04 March 2022.

Foreign minister accuses Russian soldiers of rape in Ukrainian cities,” Reuters, 04 March 2022.

Mark Sweney, “London Stock Exchange suspends trading in more Russian firms,” The Guardian, 04 March 2022.

Julia Kollewe, “Global shares tumble after Russian attack on Ukraine nuclear plant – business live,” The Guardian, 04 March 2022.

Andrew Roth, “Kremlin denies planning to institute martial law in Russia,” The Guardian, 03 March 2022.

Mark Sweney, “London Stock Exchange suspends trading in 27 firms with strong links to Russia,” The Guardian, 03 March 2022.

 

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE

French President confirms candidacy for election

On 03 March, French President Immanuel Macron confirmed his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election. On winning the election, Macron will become the first French leader to continue his second term. The voting is expected to take place on 10 April. As per the recent polls, Macron is predicted to be on the front with a stable popularity rate competing with opposition leaders, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, and conservative candidate Valerie Pecresse. In his recent letter Macron said: “I am seeking your trust again. I am a candidate to invent with you, faced with the century's challenges, a French and European singular response.” (“France: Emmanuel Macron confirms he will run for second term,” Deutsche Welle, 03 March 2022)

 

MOLDOVA

Moldova to submit the application to join the EU

On 03 March, Moldova has officially applied to join the EU. The recent statement released by President Maia Sandu said that the government signed the application to join the Republic of Moldova into European Union. The application is expected to be submitted in Brussels in the coming week. The President said: “The Republic of Moldova must have a clear European path. We are ready to do everything possible to achieve this fundamental national goal,” The initiative to join the EU has risen amongst the non-EU member countries due to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So far, Georgia, Moldova, Sweden and Finland are considering joining the EU. (“Moldova asks to join the European Union - a week after Russia invades Ukraine,” Euronews, 03 March 2022)

SWEDEN

Sweden to summon Russian representative for violating its airspace

On 03 March, the Sweden government announced that it will call down Russian officials after it found four fighter jets in its airspace. As reported by Swedish Air Force, two jets SU-27 and SU-24 were under the question of entering Swedish airspace. On the incident, Swedish Foreign Ministry will take the necessary procedures to summon a representative from Russia to hold responsible for the violation. Upon the rise of the conflict situation in Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland have begun to re-think their membership with NATO. (“Sweden summons Russian officials after fighter jets fly near Gotland Island,” Euronews, 03 March 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

BCC forecasts decline in UK economy

On 04 March, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) forecasted a decline in the UK economy since the start of the war in Ukraine. It reported that the possibility of the economy falling back to the pre-pandemic level was high, but the challenge of public confidence will persist. According to the Head of the economic at BCC: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to weigh on activity by exacerbating the current inflationary squeeze on consumers and businesses and increasing bottlenecks in global supply chains,” Apart from the blocks in global supply chains, the surge in the oil and gas markets due to Russian invasion is another key contributor to inflation. (Phillip Inman, “UK’s economic growth to halve this year says British Chambers of Commerce,” The Guardian, 04 March 2022)

REGIONAL

Former Director-General of WTO comments on EU as a rising bloc against Russia

On 03 March, the former Director-General of WTO has commented that with recent imposing of sanctions by Brussels on Russia reflects the strengthening of the EU as a bloc against Russia. He remarked that Russia which is a big player when it came to economic markets, energy and food is being accurately being targeted by the west with economic sanctions. He said: “Little by little, yes, the European Union is progressing towards, let's say, the shores of power that a certain number of Europeans dream of, not all of them, including in terms of trade policy. Little by little, by building up its arsenal, I believe that this is the case.” (Gregoire Lory, “EU slowly becoming more powerful, says former WTO chief,” Euronews, 03 March 2022)


03 March 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #139

Top five developments in Ukraine – Day eight of conflict

Georgia submits a formal application for EU membership; IPC bans Russian and Belarusian athletes from Beijing Winter Paralympics

Photo : Reuters/Piroschka van de Wouw


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

Top five developments in Ukraine - Day seven of conflict

1. Conflict Escalations: War crime investigation launched and Kherson under control of Russia 

On 03 March, the International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor launched a war crimes investigation on Russia on suspicion of its military bombing civilians. After 39 countries raised the concern to ICC, filed the investigation on Russia. According to the Chief Prosecutor, ICC has already sent its team to the conflict area to collect evidence that comes under war crimes, crimes against humanity, or anything violating under the Geneva Conventions. In addition, the investigation will track individuals involved in ordering the attack on civilians in the invasion and help target them to impose charges.

Inside Ukraine, Kherson, a southern port city, has now been taken control by the Russian military, securing the state administration building, and the Mayor of Kherson has confirmed the same. The next target of the Russian forces is expected to be Mariupol, which is the next largest port city serves the direct connection for Russia to reach eastern Ukraine through Crimea. The UK intelligence reported that the progression of Russia into Kyiv had slowed down due to "Ukraine's resistance, mechanical breakdown, and congestion.

2. Ukraine responses: President Zelensky demands supply of warplanes and urges direct talks with Putin

In his remarks to the civilians, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reassured that the Ukrainian military was still under control of the port city despite fears of Mariupol being captured by Russia. However, as the cities' shelling continued, Zelensky asked for one-to-one talks with Russian President Putin and urged NATO to send warplanes, as it did not approve the no-fly zone. On the same, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine criticized NATO for refusing to obligate the no-fly zone and accused it of the civilians' death. She also warned that this misstep would further the war to direct conflict between the West and Russia.

3. Russia's claims: President Putin threatens with plans of demilitarisation and disclosed the count of soldiers killed

On 03 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin in his address, claimed that Russia "is going according to the plan," and marked that "demilitarisation," of Ukraine will be achieved. He also said through "Special military operation," the plan is being executed and criticized Ukrainian forces for using foreign students as "human shields." Furthermore, the President appreciated the "bravery" of the Russian troops in fighting against Ukrainian forces; he also disclosed that 498 Russian soldiers have been killed till now in the war. On the other hand, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said that Russians were not considering launching a nuclear third world war.  

4. External actors' response: France, UK, US, UN, and WHO condemn Russia and raise concerns for worsening situation in Ukraine

From the UK, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called for countering the invasion by targetting Russia's economy and cracking it down. She stressed extending the SWIFT ban from certain banks to all Russian banks and to lessen oil and gas dependency from Russia.

From the US, President Joe Biden called for "immediately cease bloodshed." The announcement of tour of the US Secretary of the State Antony Blinken was announced. Who is scheduled to visit six European countries to discuss the Ukrainian conflict. The US welcomed the vote of the UN to rebuke the invasion. 

From the UN, an emergency meeting was held at the General Assembly to pass a resolution against the invasion, where the UN strongly accused and demanded Russia to withdraw its troops. In the voting, While India abstained from voting, Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea polled against the resolution.

From France, Macron is observed to be the only leader who has been continuously in contact with Putin. On 03 March, after the telephonic call with Putin, Macron warned that Russia would not stop invading Ukraine and the whole of Ukraine was under threat. He condemned Russia, stating it as an "aggressor."

From the WHO, it has expressed deep concerns over the growing humanitarian crisis and highlighted the attacks affecting the health workers and health care facilities in Ukraine.

5. People's stance: Growing protests in Europe, Russia and fleeing Ukrainians

The first few days of the protest began in most of the European cities against Russia for invading Ukraine, which spread to people in Russia and across the world in support of Ukrainians. Anti-war protests in large numbers were observed in Berlin and St. Petersburg in Russia. The protests in Russia are put under control by the police through direct clashes and mass arrests. In the recent statement from the UN, close to one million people in Ukraine have left Ukraine, and the count is on the rise. As Russia progresses into various port cities launching attacks on civilian buildings, the state of people in Ukraine has turned into a nightmare, striking fears to leave the country. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews Padmashree Anandhan

ROMANIA

Two aircraft crashes lead to an investigation

On 03 March, eastern Romania witnessed two crashes as both a fighter jet and a search-and-rescue mission dispatched for the same crashed. The cause for the country’s deadliest crash since 2014 is still under investigation. Seven soldiers of the search-and-rescue team along with the pilot of the fighter jet are reported to have died. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis termed the accidents “a tragic night for Romanian aviation” while his condolences were expressed towards the victims’ “bereaved families”. Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry has announced that aircraft models of the MiG-21 LanceR fighter jet and the IAR 330-Puma helicopter would not take-off until after the investigation. Further, Defense Minister Vasile Dincu expressed that there were no indications of an attack. (“Romania: Military personnel killed in aircraft crashes,” Deutsche Welle, 03 March 2022)

REGIONAL

Georgia: Formal application for EU membership submitted 

On 03 March, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili announced that Georgia had submitted a formal application to join the EU. Following the signing of the application, Garibashvili said: “We are applying today for EU membership… Georgia is a European state and continues to make a valuable contribution to its protection and development.” The Georgian move towards EU accession follows Ukraine’s bid to the same. Georgia, like Ukraine, was also a former USSR state and fears a repetition of August 2008 when Russia invaded two breakaway regions called South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moldova is also expected to apply for the membership soon. (Timothy Jones, “Georgia formally applies for EU membership,” Deutsche Welle, 03 March 2022)

ENERGY

Ukraine: IEA Chief calls on Europeans to save energy, reduce dependency on Russian gas 

On 03 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol called on the Europeans to save energy by turning down their thermostats by a degree. Birol said: “Russia is using its natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon. This is clear to everyone in the world.” The agency has created a 10-point plan that advocates for European governments to impose a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies profiting from the energy price hikes. This could be used to reduce the energy bills for consumers suffering from the crisis while allowing for a reduced dependency on Russian gas imports. No more new gas contracts are encouraged with Russia’s Gazprom. Meanwhile, the IEA advises a delayed closure of nuclear power stations, fast-moving wind and solar energy-related constructions and increased energy efficiency in homes and businesses. The European Commission is expected to release its own energy strategy based on the IEA’s proposals. (Fiona Harvey, “Turn down heating by 1C to reduce need for Russian imports, Europeans told,” The Guardian, 03 March 2022)

SPORTS

Beijing Winter Paralympics: IPC bans Russian and Belarusian athletes over Ukraine crisis

On 03 March, the International Paralympic Committee announced that it was banning  Russian and Belarusian athletes from participating in the Beijing Winter Paralympics. The decision announced on the eve of the competition was appealed to by Russia. The Russian Sports Minister Oleg Matytsin commented on the appeal effort: “We are currently in work to establish our legal position to file lawsuits on the protection of our athletes’ rights, against the discrimination of athletes based on their ethnicity and the use of sports as a tool of a political pressure.” The Minister added that the decision was a “blatant violation of athletes’ rights and a manipulation of the Olympic Charter and human lives’ values in pursuit of political goals”. Nonetheless, the IPC’s decision was commended by the UK Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries among others. (Paul MacInnes, “Russia head for court to overturn ban on athletes at Winter Paralympics,” The Guardian, 03 March 2022)


02 March 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #138

UK sanctions Belarus Defense Ministry for engaging with Russia

Ukraine President states Russian intent to 'erase' Ukraine; Seven Russian banks removed from SWIFT; US President vows to resolve the Ukraine conflict

Photo : Salvatore Di Nolfi/Pool via REUTERS


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE

Ruling bans barristers from wearing religious symbols in courts

On 02 March, France’s Court of Cassation upheld a ban on barristers wearing religious symbols like the hijab in courtrooms. The controversial verdict is bound to create a precedent for the rest of Europe. The rule, advocated by the Bar Council of Lille, stated that religious markers were not allowed in courtrooms since they could lead to biased judgements. This rule was challenged by Sarah Asmeta, a French-Syrian lawyer. The Court stated: "(the ban was) necessary and appropriate, on the one hand, to preserve the independence of the lawyer and, on the other, to guarantee the right to a fair trial.” Asmeta had previously challenged the Lille Bar Council’s rule in 2020 where she lost the case in an appeals court. (Layli Foroudi, "Top French court upholds ban on barristers wearing hijab in Lille courtrooms," Reuters, 02 March 2022) 

THE UNITED KINGDOM

UK sanctions Belarus Defense Ministry for engaging with Russia in invading Ukraine

On 02 March, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s engagement in Ukraine “barbaric and indiscriminate.” On the same lines of US President Joe Biden, Johnson commented that Putin has underestimated the west's response and he remarked that the Russian invasion will not succeed. So far, the UK has heavily sanctioned those Russians close to Putin and recently Belarusian army chief was also sanctioned due to involvement in the Russian invasion. The sanction targets four defence officials and two military enterprises of Belarus. Although Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko has denied launching any attacks on Ukraine from Belarus, the UK will proceed to sanction. (Adam Durbin, “Ukraine: Vladimir Putin using barbaric tactics, Boris Johnson says,” BBC, 02 March 2022; “Ukraine conflict: UK sanctions Belarus for role in Russian invasion,” BBC, 02 March 2022)

UKRAINE 

Ukraine: Zelenskyy states Russian intent to 'erase' Ukraine 

On 02 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that 6,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since 24 February and stated that it was not possible to win the current conflict with rockets and bombs. Zelenskyy, during the video address, said: "They (Russia) know nothing about our capital. About our history. But they have an order to erase our history. Erase our country. Erase us all." Commenting on the Babyn Yar strike, Zelenskyy added: "We all died again by Babyn Yar. Although the world has promised again and again that it will never happen again." Meanwhile, Russia's Major General Igor Konashenkov gave a figure of 498 Russian troops being killed while 1,597 were wounded. As Zelenskyy called on the Jewish community to respond to this, Holocaust remembrance organizations condemned the strike. (“Ukraine: Zelenskyy says Russia wants to 'erase our country',” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2022)

REGIONAL 

Ukraine: Seven Russian banks removed from SWIFT

On 02 March, according to the EU's official journal, the bloc formally imposed sanctions on seven Russian banks by removing them from the SWIFT global payments system. The targeted institutions include Russia's second-largest bank VTB, along with Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Rossiya Bank, Sovcombank and Vnesheconombank. The banks are expected to end their operations with the network in 10 days. The sanction intends to deter Russia in its decision to invade Ukraine. However, Sberbank and GazpromBank, major Russian banks, were not affected since they facilitate payments for EU's energy imports. (“Ukraine: EU excludes 7 Russian banks from SWIFT,” Deutsche Welle, 02 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Fashion designers pressurized to support Ukraine 

On 02 March, The Guardian released an article stating the pressure fashion designers were facing due to the Ukraine crisis. The Ukraine conflict coincided with the fashion week, forcing those luxury brands to stop incoming Russian revenue. Russian consumers contribute to approximately 3 per cent of the global luxury sales. Balenciaga made a solidarity statement on the crisis, becoming the first Paris fashion week brand to do so. It also contributed to the World Food Programme. A department store in Kyiv is demanding that the fashion industry cut all trade ties with Russia. In an interview with Vogue Business, the store's marketing director said: “The fashion industry needs to stand up… Stop trading – stop supplying Russia. Stop your relationships with Russia.” (Jess Cartner-Morley, “Worldwide fashion industry urged to show support for Ukraine,” The Guardian, March 2022)  

US President vows to resolve the Ukraine conflict

On 02 March, US President Joe Biden in the state of union address said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had undermined the response of the west in the invasion of Ukraine. He promised: "an unwavering resolve that freedom will always triumph over tyranny. "Following the airspace bans by Europe and Canada, the US announced the ban of Russian aircrafts to fly in the US airspace. Both democrats and republicans supported the President’s vow and appreciated it. Biden also added: “Putin's war was premeditated and unprovoked. He rejected repeated efforts at diplomacy.” (“Ukraine crisis: Biden threatens to punish Putin over invasion,” BBC, 02 March 2022)

 


01 March 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #137

Putin calls on Russian army to ready nuclear forces for “combat service”

Sanctions on Nord Stream 2 forces operator to end employee contracts; Belarus vote to reform non-nuclear status

Photo : Russian Pool/Reuters TV via Reuters


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Zelenskyy calls on the EU to “prove” support 

On 01 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the EU to prove its claim that it backed the country. Via a video link, Zelenskyy addressed the European Parliament: “The European Union is going to be much stronger with us, that's for sure. Without you, Ukraine is going to be lonesome.” Zelenskyy’s statement came a day after he signed an official request to accede into the EU. The President added: “Do prove that you are with us. Do prove that you will not let us go. Do prove that you are indeed Europeans and then life will win over death and light will win over darkness. Glory be to Ukraine.” (“"Prove you are with us", Ukraine president urges EU,” Reuters, 01 March 2022) 

CLIMATE

IPCC report warns severity in living conditions of humans due to rising temperatures

On 28 February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report on factors contributing to climate change. The report stated that the current changes to the environment were pushing the limits of the survival of humans and nature to exist. It is expected that more than 40 per cent of the world population will be put under vulnerable climate conditions and the IPCC team hopes if the increase in temperature is maintained at 1.5 Celsius, there might be lessening in the impact. According to Prof Debra Roberts, who is a co-chair of the IPCC: “Our report clearly indicates that places, where people live and work, may cease to exist, that ecosystems and species that we've all grown up with and that are central to our cultures and inform our languages may disappear.” The report will be the sixth assessment of the organisation, urging countries to go towards “Net Zero” emissions.

ENERGY

Ukraine: Sanctions on Nord Stream 2 forces operator to end employee contracts 

On 01 March, the Nord Stream 2 AG operator, Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom, ended contracts with its employees citing the heavy sanctions imposed by the US. An emailed statement saw the operator saying: “Following the recent geopolitical developments leading to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, the company had to terminate contracts with employees. We very much regret this development.” Meanwhile, there are also reports of the Swiss-based company considering filing for insolvency. While Nord Stream 2 AG ignored a request to respond, Gazprom refused to comment. (“Nord Stream 2 terminates contracts with employees following sanctions,” Reuters, 01 March 2022; Aziz El Yaakoubi and Shariq Khan, “Exclusive: Nord Stream 2 owner considers insolvency after sanctions,” Reuters, 01 March 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Putin calls on Russian army to ready nuclear forces for “combat service”

On 27 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement via a televised address calling on the Russian army to prepare their “deterrence”. Putin said: “I order the defense minister and the chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces to put the deterrence forces of the Russian army into a special mode of combat service.” Following this, the Kremlin spokesperson said: “Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between NATO and Russia… We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable.” Putin’s statement has raised concerns of further escalation in the Ukraine crisis while the Kremlin has justified the measure citing possible confrontations with NATO troops. (Carla Bleiker, “How serious are Vladimir Putin′s nuclear threats?,” Deutsche Welle, 28 February 2022)

Belarus: Voters reach consensus to give up non-nuclear status

On 28 February, Belarusian voters approved constitutional reforms discarding the country's non-nuclear status. This amendment allows the country to host nuclear weapons and strengthen military ties with Russia. The referendum also included reforms that would allow the president to remain in power until 2035 and have lifetime immunity from prosecution. Russia which is an essential ally of Belarus recently deployed troops there under the pretext of military exercises and then entered Ukraine in the ongoing invasion. Speaking at the polling station on 27 February, Lukashenko also admitted that he could ask Russia to return their nuclear weapons.   

 


28 February 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #136

President Zelenskyy appeals to accede into the EU

Germany gives additional military support to Ukraine; Ukraine receives Bitcoin donations worth GBP 6.7 million; EU ban on airspace

Photo : Reuters/Yves Herman


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY

Germany: Declares direct military support to Ukraine again

On 28 February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during an emergency parliamentary meeting declared an addition of USD 113 billion asserting the direct supply of arms to Ukraine. so far Germany was found to be differed from other European countries when it came to transferring of arms to Ukraine. The changed stance of Germany shows a drastic shift in Germany’s foreign policy. This also shows the derail in the diplomatic approach of Germany in resolving the conflict between Russia-Ukraine. The main instigator to the quick move is due to increasing Russian attacks and the vulnerability of Ukraine. (Damien McGuinness “Ukraine conflict: Putin's war prompts dramatic German U-turn,” BBC, 28 February 2022)

REGIONAL 

President Zelenskyy appeals to accede into the EU

On 28 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed an application requesting membership in the EU. The move followed the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s Euronews interview where she stated that Ukraine was one of them while adding that the bloc wanted them to be a member. The appeal is claimed to be a call “for the immediate accession of Ukraine via a new special procedure.” However, EU officials denied the possibility of such a rapid accession. However, the EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: “We have to provide an answer for the coming hours, not for the coming years… Ukraine has clearly a European perspective, but now we have to fight against an aggression.” (“Ukraine: Kyiv demands Russian withdrawal as talks begin — live updates,” Deutsche Welle, 28 February 2022)

Ukraine: Putin and Macron hold a telephonic conversation

On 28 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a phone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two leaders discussed the Ukraine crisis in a call that lasted 90 minutes. Following the call, Paris maintained that Putin had reiterated his “willingness” to commit to putting an end to the civilian attacks providing a safe path for those attempting to leave Kyiv. In a separate statement, the Kremlin stated that Putin had reminded Macron of the demands to be met for a potential settlement. (“Ukraine: Kyiv demands Russian withdrawal as talks begin — live updates,” Deutsche Welle, 28 February 2022) 

Thousands protest in Berlin, Europe and Russia against the invasion of Ukraine

On 27 February, more than 100,000 people joined in a rally against Russia’s invasion at the centre of Berlin while the government of Germany met to discuss on the security situation. The protestors carried the signboards saying "No World War 3" and "Stop the killer." It was not just in Berlin, but protests were across Europe, from Baltic states, Switzerland, London, Paris, Rome, Brussels, Vienna, Madrid and Sofia. Apart from these protests were also conducted inside Russia, but were arrested and banned from taking part by the Russian authorities. In a recent letter, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “War is a humanitarian catastrophe that leads to pain and suffering, we consider violent solutions to political conflicts inhumane and call upon you to cease fire and begin negotiations.” (“Anti-war rally draws at least 100,000 in Berlin,” Deutsche Welle, 27 February 2022; Andreas Illmer, “Ukraine: Protests, donations and solidarity grow across Europe,” Deutsche Welle, 27 February 2022)

European Commission imposes a ban on Russian airlines from using the EU airspace

On 27 February, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen announced the blanket flight ban levied on Russian planes. She said: “We are shutting down EU airspace for Russian-owned, Russian-registered or Russian-controlled aircraft.” Due to the ban, any private jets, Russian airlines, Aeroflot, all such flights will be banned to land in any country in the EU. In response, Russian airlines have cancelled all the flights flying to European countries. The ban largely targets state-owned companies, along with this the private companies have also taken measures to prevent using the airspace. (“Ukraine invasion: EU shuts airspace to Russian planes,BBC, 27 February 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Ukraine: Donations worth GBP 6.7 million received via Bitcoin

On 27 February, cryptocurrency analysts announced that approximately GBP 6.7 million worth of Bitcoin had been donated to Ukraine via anonymous donations. In an effort to secure funds, the Ukrainian government, NGOs and volunteer groups had published their bitcoin wallet addresses online. The official Twitter handle of the Ukrainian government had requested users to "stand with the people of Ukraine". The administration has indicated that it accepts donations via other cryptocurrencies including Ethereum and USDT. According to Tom Robinson, the founder of blockchain analysis company Elliptic: “... some crowdfunding and payments companies have refused to allow donations to be made to groups supporting the Ukrainian military, cryptocurrencies have emerged as a powerful alternative.” (“Ukraine live updates: Kyiv warned of toxic fumes after strike on oil depot,” BBC, 27 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Ukrainian ambassador to the UN says international peace depends on Ukraine

On 28 February, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya cautioned the UN General Assembly (UNGA) that the survival of international peace was dependent on that of Ukraine. He said: “If Ukraine does not survive, international peace will not survive. If Ukraine does not survive, the United Nations will not survive… If Ukraine does not survive, we cannot be surprised if democracy fails.” The ambassador added that Russia was committing war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. He further called on the UNGA to demand Russia to stop its aggression towards Ukraine. (“Ukraine: Kyiv demands Russian withdrawal as talks begin — live updates,” Deutsche Welle, 28 February 2022) 

 


26 February 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #135

Cyber attacks in Ukraine: Four lessons

Third round of Western sanctions ban key Russian banks from SWIFT; Poland and Sweden back out of World Cup qualifiers against Russia; France seizes Russian cargo ship

Photo : Reuters/Kacper Pempel/Illustration


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

Cyber attacks in Ukraine: Four lessons

On 15 February, the banking sector of Ukraine was attacked using distributed denial of service (DDoS). The US, the UK and Australia have ascribed the attack to the Russian Main Intelligence (GRU).  On 24 February, while the Russian forces moved into Ukraine waging warfare, the government of Ukraine asked the underground hacker community to volunteer to involve in protecting the critical infrastructure of the country and also to run cyber missions to spy the movement of Russian troops.

Cyber attacks on Ukraine: A brief note

The attacks aim to destabilise Ukraine. A new data wiping program found in the computers and systems of Ukraine has created a challenge for the Ukrainian cyber firms. The damaging software is expected to have spread to numerous government agencies; They have targeted defense ministry, foreign investments, government services, banking, energy, telecommunication and electricity grids. These attacks lead to disabling governmental operations, cut down signals and result in mayhem . In the past few months, Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communication spotted 113 cyber attacks in its system and is still spiking. Cyber warfare has become tool for Russia to bring instability in Ukraine. It will not be the first time as under “2017 NotPetya attack,” which is observed to the most destructive cyber attack by Russia on Ukraine’s banks, transportation and energy, which had a global impact, costing USD 10 million.

The cyber attacks affect Ukraine’s economy. With the trade doubling between Ukraine and Germany in the post-pandemic period and a series of economic deals signed between Ukraine and France have pushed Russia to re-think its approach.

Outside Ukraine, the cyber attacks have an impact on global system. On investigating the recent cyber attack launched on Ukraine, Microsoft found that the malware that was placed in the computer systems of Ukraine was critical and had the capacity to damage or spread to far targets. This means with Ukraine being the open outlet, Russia will be able to launch attack to target other countries and their critical infrastructure. Similar to “2017NotPetya attack” there is a high possibility for countries like US, UK, France, Germany, and India connected to Ukrainian to face the impact, hence there is a need for collective approach to create a defense shield in cyber space.

Cyber attacks on Ukraine: Four lessons

First, the failure of response. All parties have condemned and have threated on imposing sanctions, but has not made an impact on Russia. Even post the recent attacks on Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and the banks, the response of the US, the UK, and Australia was restricted to only condemning the attack than imposing sanctions or developing a cyber shield to protect Ukraine from similar threats.

Second, cyber defense vs cyber resources. The existing cybersecurity system of Ukraine seem fragile and vulnerable to Russia’s cyber-attacks. The attacks continue to disrupt the infrastructure of Ukraine this year despite the technology support provided by the US, the EU and the NATO. It shows the limitedness and lack in the willingness of the external powers in furthering the cyber resources to Ukraine. Hence, the gap between the cyber defense and attaining resources makes the security system of Ukraine open to future attacks.

Third, the industrial risk. Ukraine’s young population is well-known for its start-up businesses and due to continuous cyber-attacks, the businesses, the supply chains and the critical infrastructure are about to be sabotaged and the, risking the regular functioning of the industry.

Fourth, the government’s response. Ukraine has been assured by the EU regulated Cyber Rapid Response Teams to track cyber-attacks, forensics and help mitigate such threats. When it comes to facing the attack it is Ukraine’s government and its critical infra that gets targeted. Ukraine’s cyber-defense system is nowhere equal to Russia, but has tried to use it private companies, people resources in form of underworld hackers and volunteers to operate on defensive and offensive levels. This shows that the government is still on with a youthful strategy and confidence to deter Russian cyber invasion to its best extent.

References:

 Sam Sabin, “Tracking cyber’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Politico, 14 February 2022

Joseph Marks and Aaron Schaffer, “Cyber’s role in the Ukraine-Russia crisis remains unclear,” The Washington Post, 15 February 2022

 Keith Alexander, “Cyber warfare in Ukraine poses a threat to the global system,” Financial Times, 15 February 2022

UK assess Russian involvement in cyber attacks on Ukraine,” Government of the UK, 18 February 2022

 “Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 18 February 2022

 “Attribution to Russia of malicious cyber activity against Ukraine,” Minister for Foreign Affairs, 20 February 2022

 

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

UKRAINE

Ukraine: Curfew declared in Kyiv until 28 February; thousands flee the city

On 26 February, the mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko declared a curfew in the city from 1700 hours (GMT+2) that would last till the morning of 28 February. An explanatory statement by the mayor’s office maintained that the measure would allow for cleaning up the damage caused by Russian troops. Thousands of Kyiv citizens were seen evacuating the city following the announcement. The Ukrainian railway authority arranged for evacuation trains to transport the inhabitants of the city to western Ukraine. Those who failed to board the train prior to the curfew were stranded in the station. (“As it happened: Kyiv under curfew as France, Germany pledge to arm Ukraine," France24, 26 February 2022; “Ukraine live updates: Kyiv warned of toxic fumes after strike on oil depot,” BBC, 27 February 2022)

SPORTS

Ukraine: Poland and Sweden back out of World Cup qualifiers against Russia 

On 26 February, the Polish and Swedish Football Associations announced their refusal to play the World Cup qualifiers against Russia. The qualifiers to be held in March will be a precursor to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Poland's Football Association Chief Cezary Kulesza tweeted: “In light of the escalation of the Russian Federation's aggression against Ukraine, the Polish national team is not going to play a match against Russian Republic. This is the only right decision. We're in talks with Swedish and Czech associations to present a common position to FIFA.” Later, the Swedish Football Association Chairman Karl-Erik Nilsson said: “The illegal and deeply unjust invasion of Ukraine currently makes all football exchanges with Russia impossible.” Earlier, on 22 February, Poland, Sweden and the Czech Republic had released a joint statement requesting to ban Russia from hosting the playoffs in March. FIFA is yet to respond to the request. (“Soccer-Poland, Sweden refuse to play World Cup match with Russia," Reuters, 26 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Russia's midnight invasion and thermobaric "vacuum bombs" launcher spotted in Belgorod

On 26 February, Russia's invasion of Ukraine from the region of Belgorod took the inhabitants by surprise as the troops started moving in at midnight. The offensive was initiated right after Russian President Vladimir Putin's call announcement of an offensive against Ukraine. A resident, Olga, said: "My sister called me at 5:30 in the morning and told me, 'Putin announced there would be war in Ukraine.' Half an hour later it all started. We were afraid, very afraid." At the same time, the TOS-1 or TOS-1A Multiple Rocket Launcher was spotted south of Belgorod. These weapons are called vacuum bombs as they suck oxygen and are filled with high-temperature, high-pressure explosives than conventional ammunition. ("War in Ukraine: Invasion takes Russians near the border by surprise," France24, 26 February 2022; Fred Pleitgen, Ivana Kottasová and Tim Lister, "Russian thermobaric "vacuum bombs" launcher seen by CNN team in Ukraine," CNN, 26 February 2022)

France seizes Russian cargo ship 

On 26 February, a cargo ship called the ‘Baltic Leader’ was seized by French authorities as it was suspected to belong to Russian interests that had sanctions imposed on it. The ship was headed for St Petersburg but was eventually diverted to the port in northern France called Boulogne-sur-Mer. The US Treasury Department said the owner company had sanctions "for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel and financial services sectors of the Russian Federation economy." However, the owner Promsvyazbank said, it no longer owned the ship as it was sold to a different entity before the sanctions were in place. ("France seizes cargo vessel targeted by US sanctions on Russia," France24, 26 February 2022)

Germany announces supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine

On 26 February, Germany retracted its policy and assured Ukraine of a supply of military equipment in its fight against Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: "It threatens our entire post-war order. In this situation, it is our duty to do our utmost to support Ukraine in defending itself against Vladimir Putin's invading army. Germany stands closely by Ukraine's side." The German government assured the supply of 1,00 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems. ("Germany to send Ukraine weapons in historic shift on military aid," POLITICO, 26 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Third round of Western sanctions ban key Russian banks from SWIFT

On 26 February, major Russian banks were taken off the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) messaging system. The secure network permits rapid cross-border payments facilitating foreign trade. The third round of sanctions from the West also saw threats to Russia’s central bank. The joint statement released by the US, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, the UK and the European Commission read: “As Russian forces unleash their assault on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, we are resolved to continue imposing costs on Russia that will further isolate Russia from the international financial system and our economies." The move was previously termed as a “financial nuclear weapon” by the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire due to its potentially devastating impact on the Russian economy. (Maria Tsvetkova and Aleksandar Vasovic, "Western allies to expel key Russian banks from global system; Ukraine vows to fight on," Reuters, 26 February 2022) 


25 February 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #134

President Zelenskyy announces general mobilization

Imran Khan meets Putin; France-China sign third-party cooperation; Protests erupt against Russia

Photo : Reuters


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

UKRAINE

President Zelenskyy announces general mobilization

On 24 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ratified a decree ordering the general mobilization of the country’s citizens. According to the Ukrainian Presidency’s website, conscripts and reservists are expected to report over the next 90 days. During a video address, Zelenskyy said: “We have been left alone to defend our state… Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don't see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of NATO membership? Everyone is afraid.” The Ukrainian border guard ordered males of 18-60 years to not leave the country until the martial law is lifted. (“Ukraine president orders general mobilization,” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)

SPORTS

UEFA shifts the final game venue to Saint-Denis is France

On 25 February, the executive committee of UEFA announced the removal of hosting rights of Saint Petersburg to hold the Champions League final. It was decided that Stade de France in Saint-Denis will be the host to the final match. In recent weeks the discussion over shifting of the venue for the final league match took place as the situation in Ukraine escalated. Post the Russian invasion, the decision solidified. The link between UEFA and Russia was Gazprom. The Champion League’s prime sponsor was Gazprom since 2012, and due to the conflict situation, it has been removed from the sponsoring of the player kits. (James Thorogood, “Champions League final moved from Saint Petersburg after Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 25 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Imran visit Russia midst of the invasion

On 23 February, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the statement released by the Russian Government, the meet focused on bilateral cooperation, regional topics such as developments in South Asia and reaching a deal on energy gas pipeline as Pakistan faces an energy crisis. The meet was condemned by the west, but both parties have denied the meeting to link with the Ukraine invasion. According to Brussels-based Pakistani journalist: “Regardless of what he says, by going to Moscow, Khan has conveyed a message to Europe and the US that he has decided to side with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.” (Shamil Shams, “Ukraine crisis: Why Imran Khan's Russia trip will further isolate Pakistan,” Deutsche Welle, 25 February 2022)

Ukraine: Protests erupt condemning Russian aggression 

On 24 February, citizens across the world took to the streets condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Demonstrations were witnessed by Ukrainians living in Japan, Germany, and the Czech Republic. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded to the growing concern of the Ukrainian security situation: “Putin is endangering the lives of countless innocent people and the peace order on our continent. This is Putin's war.” In Moscow, a few citizens who protested outside the Ukrainian embassy were arrested while Turkey and Spain witnessed protesters crowding outside the Russian consulates in their respective capital cities. (Claudia Dehn, “Standing up for Ukraine: Anti-war protests around the world,” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)

France and China sign cooperation deal over infrastructure projects in Africa

On 24 February, France and China announced a joint plan to construct seven infrastructure projects worth USD 1.9 billion in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. The pact will be the first third-party intergovernmental cooperation, including projects in infrastructure, environmental protection and new energy. As per the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): “French enterprises have a unique advantage in advanced manufacturing, environmental protection and engineering construction, while Chinese firms have accumulated rich experience in basic infrastructure construction, energy, equipment building and the internet. Enterprises from both countries are complementary, and have a huge potential for third-party market cooperation.” A recent study suggests that foreign investments in China are found to be corrosive in nature across Eastern and Central Europe. Out of which Hungary has the highest cut, seconded by Poland in railway transit, Slovakia and Czech Republic where its investments have grown to the extent of influencing the internal communication networks. Whereas France's economic relations with Africa declined to seven per cent, while Chinese FDI grew in 2020. (Jo Harper, “France and China link up in global infrastructure projects,” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)


24 February 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #133

Ukraine approves 30-day state of emergency

EU slaps new sanctions on Putin's close aides; EU Parliament discusses the use of Pegasus; UN Secretary-General calls Russian invasion "a moment of peril"

Photo : Reuters/Viacheslav Ratynskyi


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

UKRAINE 

Ukraine: Parliament approves 30-day state of emergency 

On 23 February, the Ukrainian Parliament declared a 30-day state of emergency. This was a response to the Russian recognition of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as "independent". Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is allegedly considering the possibilities for announcing a nationwide state of emergency as the fear of war with Russia looms large. The imposition of an emergency permits officials to take restrictive action "in the interests of national security and public order''. (“Ukraine requests urgent meeting of UN Security Council — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)

REGIONAL

EU slaps new sanctions on Putin's close aides  

On 23 February, the European Union announced new sanctions against 27 high-ranking individuals and entities. Euronews reported: "They will all be subject to asset freezes: EU-based banks will be prohibited from making funds available to them, although this will depend on the degree of cooperation from the financial entities." The individuals will also be banned from entering or passing through EU territory. EU's diplomat Josep Borrell said: "This package of sanctions will hurt Russia, and it will hurt a lot." However, Putin himself has been excluded from the sanctions. ("Commanders, ministers and bank chiefs: The EU goes after Putin's closest circle," Euronews, 23 February 2022)

EU Parliament discusses the use of Pegasus by member states

On 23 February, the European Parliament announced to set up a committee to inquire into the Pegasus spyware scandal. Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders condemned the use of spyware to access the illegal information of politicians. Hungarian opposition MP Anna Júlia Donáth said: "In the spring of 2022, there will be parliamentary elections in Hungary. The stakes in these elections are huge because, despite all the anti-democratic measures taken by the Hungarian ruling party, there is a real chance that Viktor Orbán will be replaced." After the committee completes its investigation, it will file a report to the national governments and the European Commission. (Alberto De Filippis, "EU parliament to investigate use of NSO Group's Pegasus spyware," Euronews, 23 February 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Russia on charges and bans various tech firms for illegal content display

On 24 February, Russia charged Google USD 98 million for not deleting content in its site that was considered illegal in Russia. However, the announcement did not mention the offensive content. In the recent months Russian authorities have dualled the screening on tech firms on content display, similar to Google, Meta and Twitter was also fined on same basis. The skimming of tech giants come due to President Vladimir Putin’s push for “sovereign internet,” through which he aims to control citizens view and access to certain content relating to drugs, violence and extremism. On the same, LinkedIn and Dailymotion have been blocked for denying to remove such data. Since 2022, Russia is observed to on the spree to control content spread through tech apps and computers. (“Russia fines Google over illegal content breach,” BBC, 24 February 2022)

Fossil of Pterosaur a flying reptile found in Scotland

On 24 February, researchers discovered a fossil on the Isle of Skye, Scotland. The area is well-known for its tropicality and rains, where reptiles were believed to be existing 170 million years ago. As per the researchers, the fossil belonged to a Pterosaur which was largest in the middle Jurassic period found till now. The species was called as Dearc sgiathanach, which means “winged reptile.” Pterosaurs or pterodactyls were known as first vertebrates to fly which evolved to Cretaceous, until the asteroid that wiped out life on earth. The fossil was first spotted by PhD student in 2017 at the shores. (Esteban Pardo, “'Superlative' pterosaur, world's biggest mid-Jurassic flying animal, found in Scotland.” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)

Belgium to shut down seven controversial nuclear reactors

On 23 February, the Belgian government signed a deal between the ministries to shut down its seven old nuclear reactors in Doel and Tihange. The decision comes due to increase in fears amongst neighbourhood and on safety checks. According to the plan, the closing of the reactors will start by 2022 and will proceed to be destructed by 2045. The deal was not a easy task, as it was most debated between safe handling and energy shortage. (“Belgium agrees to close controversial ageing nuclear reactors,” BBC, 23 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 

Ukraine: Foreign Minister Kuleba requests emergency UNSC meeting  

On 23 February, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba requested an emergency session of the UN Security Council (UNSC) to be held. Kuleba tweeted: "Ukraine has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council due to the appeal by Russian occupation administrations in Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia with a request to provide them with military assistance, which is a further escalation of the security situation." The second meeting in three days is expected to be held at 0230 GMT on 24 February. The request followed a failed attempt by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Via a Telegram post, Zelenskyy said: "I initiated a telephone call with the president of the Russian federation. Result: silence." Zelenskyy added that the Russian troops along the Ukrainian borders had reached 200,000. (“Ukraine requests urgent meeting of UN Security Council — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)

Ukraine: UN Secretary-General Guterres calls Russian invasion "a moment of peril" 

On 23 February, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed the UN General Assembly on the Ukraine crisis. The UN Chief warned that the world was "facing a moment of peril". Guterres called for a de-escalation and added: "If the conflict in Ukraine expands, the world could see a scale and severity of need unseen for many years." Speaking at the General Assembly, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: "Active diplomacy, strong political messages, tough economic sanctions and strengthening Ukraine can still force Moscow to abandon aggressive plans." Meanwhile, Russia's UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia cautioned that severe action would be taken against those violating the peace in eastern Ukraine. (“Ukraine requests urgent meeting of UN Security Council — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 24 February 2022)

European Commission’s new laws on supply chain

On 23 February, the European Commission received a new draft law that mentioned hefty fines for companies that fail to crack down on human rights and environmental abuses. European Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said: "The proposal covers two groups of companies, with limited liability. Those with more than 500 employees and a turnover of at least €150 million worldwide." European Coalition for Corporate Justice director Claudia Saller said: "The point would be really to enable the 'Davids' - in this case - to step up and claim their rights and minimise the power of the Goliaths and to come to a world where business doesn't mean violating human rights." ( Pedro Sacadura, "Brussels unveils supply chain law to guard against human rights abuses," Euronews, 23 February 2022)


23 February 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #132

Russia hit by international sanctions after recognizing Ukrainian separatist regions

Germany suspends license of Nord Stream 2; New EU cyber rapid response team; Blinken cancels meeting with Russian counterpart Lavrov;

Photo : REUTERS/Carlo Allegri


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY

Germany suspends Russia’s license to operate Nord Stream 2 pipeline

On 23 February, Germany announced to halt the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after Russian troops moved into Ukraine. Russia upon recognition of the separatists groups in eastern Ukraine, order for its troops to enter Ukraine. The US, the UK, Poland and the rest of European countries have condemned the move and have levied strict sanctions on Russia. In the case of Germany, which has withstood the pipeline going against other western powers has now taken a decision to suspend the licensing. Thereby the Russia will not be able to operate until reversal of the decision. (“Ukraine crisis: Germany halts pipeline as nations sanction Russia,” BBC, 23 February 2022)

MIGRATION

Greece: UNHCR’s Grandi condemns “deplorable” acts against asylum seekers

On 21 February, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi expressed concern over Greece and other European governments “normalizing” unlawful acts against asylum seekers. Grandi said: “Violence, ill-treatment and pushbacks continue to be regularly reported at multiple entry points at land and sea borders, within and beyond the European Union despite repeated calls ... to end such practices.” Since 2020, the UNHCR has reports of an estimated 540 informal returns that were aided by Greece. Grandi called on European governments to make a concerted effort at “protecting human life, human rights and dignity”. The “deplorable” acts committed by the European governments, Grandi said, was further contributing to the suffering of asylum seekers. (“Greece: UN calls for end to ′deplorable′ migrant pushbacks,” Deutsche Welle, 21 February 2022)

SPORTS

UEFA to reconsider game venue due to Ukraine crisisOn 22 February, Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) has said that the season’s Champions League final game will not be held in St Petersburg due to crisis situation between Ukraine and Russia. It said: “closely monitoring the situation" and "any decision would be made in due course if necessary.” On the same the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson commented that football tournaments have no possibility to conduct games in Russia, which has violated sovereignty. The European football governing body will decide based on the scenario and opt for another venue to hold the league match. (Simon Stone “Ukraine crisis: Uefa likely to move Champions League final from St Petersburg in Russia,” BBC, 22 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

CRRT team formed to respond to cyber-attacks launched against UkraineOn 23 February, a team of European countries have been formed a cyber rapid-response team (CRRT) to defend Ukraine from future cyber-attacks. The grouping that includes includes Lithuania, Croatia, Poland, Estonia, Romania, and the Netherlands formed after a series of Russian attacks launched on Ukraine’s banking sector. In a recent tweet of Lithuania Defense Ministry: “In response to Ukraine request, [we] are activating [a] Lithuanian-led cyber rapid-response team, which will help Ukrainian institutions to cope with growing cyber-threats. #StandWithUkraine.” The response team will look into various cyber-expertise, forensics, vulnerability assessments to detect and respond to cyber-threats. (Joe Tidy, “Ukraine: EU deploys cyber rapid-response team,” BBC, 23 February 2022)

Petrol prices increase over fears of shortage of supply due to Ukraine crisis

On 22 February, with the fear in interruption of oil and gas supplies due to the Ukraine-Russia crisis, the prices of the fuels shot up. Despite the west’s attempts to use economic sanctions and creating block for Russian pipeline, as a result, the prices have then weakened. According to Manulife Investment Management, Sue Trinh: “Measures forcing the country to supply less crude or natural gas would have “substantial implications” on oil prices and the global economy.” The warning on increase of petrol prices was issued earlier citing the crisis situation. (“Ukraine-Russia tensions: Oil surges on supply fears,” BBC, 23 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Blinken cancels meeting with Russian counterpart Lavrov

On 22 February, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that his scheduled meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had been cancelled. The meeting planned for 24 February, was called off due to the escalation in eastern Ukraine. Blinken, during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, said: "Now that we see the invasion is beginning, and Russia has made clear its wholesale rejection of diplomacy, it does not make sense to go forward with that meeting at this time.” However, Blinken maintained that there was a possibility of the meeting occurring if Russia did not deploy troops into Ukrainian territory. Separately, the White House also announced that a potential meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggested by French President Emmanuel Macron, was unlikely. a diplomatic path to resolving the crisis. (“Ukraine latest: Blinken calls off meeting with Lavrov over Russian troop deployment,” Deutsche Welle, 23 February 2022; Emma Graham-Harrison, “Ukraine president calls up reservists as sanctions coalition against Russia grows,” The Guardian, 23 February 2022; Andrew Roth, Emma Graham-Harrison and Julian Borger, “Likelihood of war escalates as Putin promises to support proxy Ukraine states,” The Guardian, 22 February 2022) 

Ukraine: Russia responds to international sanctions 

On 23 February, Russia’s US ambassador Anatoly Antonov downplayed the sanctions imposed by US President Joe Biden against Russia on 22 February. The initial set of sanctions targeted Russian banks such as the VEB and Promsvyazbank along with Russian sovereign debt. Antonov said: “I don’t remember a single day when our country lived without any restrictions from the western world. We learned how to work in such conditions. And not only survive, but also develop our state.” The next set of sanctions by the US is expected to hit the Russian elites and their families. Announcing the sanctions, Biden declared: “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries?... This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.” However, Biden added that he expected that diplomacy was still possible. Meanwhile, other countries such as the UK, Australia, Canada and Japan along with the EU also announced sanctions against Russia. (“Ukraine crisis: Biden announces sanctions on Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 22 February 2022; “Ukraine crisis: EU agrees to Russia sanctions package,” Deutsche Welle, 22 February 2022; Emma Graham-Harrison, “Ukraine president calls up reservists as sanctions coalition against Russia grows,” The Guardian, 23 February 2022)  

Ukraine: UN Secretary-General condemns Russian recognition of separatist regions

On 22 February, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern over the Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine while calling out “the perversion of the concept of peacekeeping". Guterres was responding to the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as republics by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the subsequent deployment of Russian troops into the region for "peacekeeping" purposes. Guterres said: "When troops of one country enter the territory of another country without its consent, they are not impartial peacekeepers. They are not peacekeepers at all." Guterres added that Russia was violating “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine". (“Ukraine crisis: Biden announces sanctions on Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 22 February 2022)


22 February 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #131

EU leaders discuss tensions in Bosnia

Kremlin calls Putin-Biden talks as “premature”; Mount Etna blasts; 100,000 dead fishes spotted floating around the coast of France;

Photo : REUTERS/Dado Ruvic


IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

EU leaders discuss tensions in Bosnia 

On 21 February, Foreign Ministers of the EU met in Brussels to discuss the issues in Bosnia. Their meeting highlighted the political crisis Bosnia is undergoing that could lead to a breakup. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: “The nationalist and separatist rhetoric is increasing in Bosnia and Herzegovina and jeopardising the stability and even the integrity of the country.” He also mentioned the role the ministers would have to play to prevent the country from separating. The US has accused the Bosnian leader Milorad Dodik of corrupt activities and undermining the US-brokered Dayton Peace Agreement. (“‘Critical situation’: EU ministers to discuss ways to prevent possible breakup of Bosnia,” Euronews, 21 February 2022)

FRANCE

100,000 dead fishes spotted floating around coast of France

On 21 February, the fishing industry group PFA released a statement accepting on the accident over release of 100,000 dead fish into the coast of France. The images of thousands of dead fish was captured by a campaign group called the Sea Shepherd in France. According to the head: “What we filmed yesterday is a huge patch of what we estimate to be about 100,000 fish, dead fish, that have been thrown overboard by the Margiris (super trawler).” The reason behind the accident is due to the usage of trawlers, despite continued criticism from environmentalists, the trawling method leads to death of marine creatures and various ocean species. (Doloresz Katanich “'Shocking’ footage shows more than 100,000 dead fish discarded off the coast of France,” Euronews, 21)

ITALY

Mount Etna blasts in the Italian Island

On 21 February, Mount Etna a tallest and active volcano situated in the Italian Island was reported to have blasted to a height of 12 KM high. According to the scientists from National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) the reason for eruption was due to buildup of magma and it was observed to have erupted 50 times in October 2021. The civil protection agency has not recorded any injuries or property damage yet, but the authorities issued warning for flying of aircraft. (“Italy: New Etna eruption spews ash and closes airport,” Deutsche Welle, 21 February 2022)

SWITZERLAND

Credit Suisse under probe after data leak reveal of secret fund accounts

On 20 February, an investigation into Credit Suisse after data leak revealed that 100 billion Swiss francs held in secret accounts, which belonged to autocrats, drug dealers, war criminals and human traffickers. The list also includes many leaders of governments such as Jordan's King Abdullah II, Iraq's former Deputy Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, ministries, oligarchs and business people. The European People’s Party (EPP) have urged the EU Commission re-examine “Switzerland as high-risk money-laundering country.” In response, the Credit Suisse bank has denied the allegations stating the investigation was conducted on inaccurate and incomplete information which has led to misinterpretations. (“Credit Suisse had autocrats, criminals as clients — report,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022)

REGIONAL

The UK and the EU soon to settle down the issue of Northern Ireland Protocol

On 21 February, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič met to discuss on bringing durable solutions for Northern Ireland issue. The statement said: “The joint bodies established by the Withdrawal Agreement should meet regularly, and agreed to discuss any point raised by the EU or the UK that is of relevance to the Withdrawal Agreement in general.” The Northern Ireland Protocol has been a conflicting issue between the EU and the UK, the protocol was signed to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. But this has resulted in creating a new trade border between Northern Ireland and the UK. While the UK opted to exit being part of the EU’s single market, it still aims for more flexibility in trade with Northern Ireland. (John Campbell, “Brexit: UK and EU will find 'durable' solutions to protocol,” BBC, 22 February 2022)

Putin recognizes Donestk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic 

On 21 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into eastern Ukraine for peacekeeping duties. Russia’s deployment was a follow-up as it recognized two breakaway regions of the Donestk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. The deployment was agreed in the text signed by the parties wherein the third article mentioned: “implementation of peacekeeping functions by the armed forces of the Russian Federation.” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of wrecking peace talks and said they were still committed to peace and diplomacy. Putin said: “… take a long overdue decision to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.” Nato’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg responded: “This further undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, erodes efforts towards a resolution of the conflict, and violates the Minsk agreements, to which Russia is a party.” (Andrew Roth and Julian Borger, “Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine on ‘peacekeeping duties’,” The Guardian, 21 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Kremlin calls Putin-Biden talks as “premature”

On 21 February, Kremlin released a statement on the discussion of a Putin-Biden summit. Kremlin said a meeting at this point with the crisis at the Ukrainian border would be premature. Their comments come as Ukraine had called for sanctions against Russia even if it did not invade. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “there is an agreement on the fact that we must continue the dialogue at the level of (foreign) ministers. Talking about concrete plans to hold summits is premature.” (“Ukraine crisis: Kremlin says ‘premature’ to discuss Putin-Biden summit,” Euronews, 21 February 2022)

Condemnation by US, UK, and the UN on Russia’s recognition of breakaway regions 

On 21 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared to recognize the independence of the two breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent entities. Donestk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic’s recognition were met with new sanctions from the US and Europe. White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said: “We will also soon announce additional measures related to today’s blatant violation of Russia’s international commitments.” The UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said sanctions by the UK would come on Tuesday “in response to their breach of international law and attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Even the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the charter of the UN.” (Julian Borger, Daniel Boffey and Angelique Chrisafis, “Dismay and condemnation as west begins to impose sanctions on Russia,” The Guardian, 21 February 2022)


21 February 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #130

PM Johnson speculates a Russian invasion of Ukraine

Macron holds a telephonic conversation with Putin; Biden agrees to summit with Putin; G7 Foreign Ministers release statement on Ukraine;

Photo : Adrian Dennis/Pool via REUTERS


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

THE UK

PM Johnson speculates a Russian invasion of Ukraine

On 20 February, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson talked about the possible repercussions of a Russian invasion of Ukraine which would “echo around the world.” Johnson spoke at the security conference in Munich. He speculated an attack by Russian President Vladimir putting and called on the leaders, saying: “… that is why we must stand strong together.” His comments come when Western countries warned of a sudden invasion by Russia, with a 130,000 troop buildup at the Ukrainian border. Jhonson also said if an invasion did transpire then, “we will witness the destruction of a democratic state, a country that has been free for a generation, with a proud history of elections.” (“Ukraine: Shock of invasion would echo around the world, Boris Johnson says,” BBC, 19 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Macron holds a telephonic conversation with Putin

On 20 February, French President Emmanuel Macron held a telephonic conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over de-escalation attempts regarding the Ukraine crisis. The two leaders decided on pursuing “intensified diplomatic efforts” to reach a solution to the ongoing standoff. The Kremlin called on these to be undertaken via the Normandy Format of talks. Following Macron’s call with Putin, he conducted a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the “need and possible ways of immediate de-escalation”. Meanwhile, the OSCE is expected to hold talks on Ukraine on 21 February. (“Ukraine latest: Macron urges Putin to ′avoid a major conflict′,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022; “Putin and Macron discuss need to step up Ukraine diplomacy, Kremlin says,” Reuters, 20 February 2022)

Belarus: Military drills with Russia to be extended 

On 20 February, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced that their bilateral military exercises with the Russian troops would be conducted beyond its scheduled deadline of 10 days. According to Defense Minister Victor Khrenin: “The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces.” Previously, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had maintained that the drills would end on the planned date. (“Ukraine: Belarus says military drills with Russia will continue,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022)

Welsh leaders visit Ukraine amid increasing escalation

On 20 February, two Welsh politicians, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price and Counsel General Mick Antoniw, visited Kyiv. Their visit was a show of solidarity with the people in Ukraine. Moreover, even though the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) had warned UK nationals to leave Ukraine, the two leaders said they wanted to “stand shoulder to shoulder” with the people. They have also planned to meet Ukrainian workers, LGBTQ+ people, ethnic minorities, and human rights defenders. Price said: “The more the Ukrainian people are threatened by Russian aggression and imperialism, the more urgent it becomes for socialists, democrats, and internationalist to stand shoulder to shoulder in solidarity with them - in defense of their right to national self-determination and in defiance of Putin’s warmongering.” (“Ukraine: Adam Price and Mick Antoniw arrive against advice,BBC, 19 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: G7 Foreign Ministers release statement 

On 19 February, the G7 Foreign Ministers released a statement regarding the Ukraine crisis, expressing concern over the worsening conditions in the region. The joint statement released by the UK Foreign Ministry read: “We call on Russia to choose the path of diplomacy, to de-escalate tensions, to substantively withdraw military forces from the proximity of Ukraine's borders and to fully abide by international commitments… As a first step, we expect Russia to implement the announced reduction of its military activities along Ukraine's borders. We have seen no evidence of this reduction.” (“Ukraine latest: NATO chief says Russia planning ′full-scale attack′,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022)

Ukraine: Biden agrees to summit with Putin

On 21 February, the White House released a statement announcing that U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine crisis. However, the meeting has been agreed to only “in principle if an invasion hasn’t happened”. Further details are unclear. More information regarding the summit is expected to be chalked out during the meeting on 24 February between the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The proposed summit is unclear also on the role Ukraine will play in the same. ("Biden agrees in principle to Ukraine summit with Putin," Reuters, 21 February 2022)

The US warns of a list that Moscow has combined to target Ukrainians

On 20 February, the US Ambassador to the UN Bathsheba, Nell Crocker, mentioned a list of targeted Ukrainians, saying: “credible information…to be killed or sent to camps”. She also said, “We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations.” Kremlin refuted the allegations and said: “You do understand that this is an absolute fake, that it’s a lie?” (Chloe Taylor, “US warns that Moscow has compiled lists of Ukrainians to target after invasion,” CNBC, 21 February 2022)

Vice President Kamala Harris extends support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

On 20 February, US Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding his defiant speech to the Munich Security Conference. Harris said: “His country is virtually surrounded by Russian troops. This is my belief, based on just my own assessment and speculation: He came here to make a very clear point that he does not stand alone.” Her comments came after Zelenskyy’s comments where he said: “We are going to protect our country with or without the support of our partners.” (David Cohen, “Harris offers support for defiant Ukrainian president,” POLITICO, 20 February 2022)

 


19 February 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #129

EU and African Union leaders meet in Brussel

Storm Eunice batters the UK; Blinken to meet Lavrov soon; Fire on Euroferry Olympia near Corfu island;

Photo : REUTERS/Edward McAllister


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

RUSSIA

Defense Ministry declares Putin to monitor military drills

On 18 February, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that President Vladimir Putin would monitor the upcoming military exercises which would involve missile tests. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Putin would “preside over a planned exercise of strategic deterrence forces... during which ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched". According to Deutsche Welle, Putin will supervise the drills from the defense ministry’s situation control center. Peskov also commented on the possibility of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attending the drills; he commented: “If they decide to be there together, then they will be there together. But it will depend on the decision of the heads of state.” (“Vladimir Putin to supervise Russian missile drills,” Deutsche Welle, 18 February 2022)  

THE UK

Storm Eunice batters the country

On 18 February, the government urged the people to stay indoors as storm Eunice battered the isles with record-breaking wind gusts. Britain’s meteorological agency said: “This is provisionally the highest gust ever record in England,” with winds up to 196 kilometres per hour. With the storm’s severity increasing, the government is expected to hold a COBRA emergency later today. A meteorologist at the University of Reading in England, Peter Inness, said: “A strong jet stream like this can act like a production line for storms, generating a new storm every day or two.” Mayor of London Sadiq Khan warned: “Please stay at home, do not take risks, and do not travel unless absolutely essential.” (“O2 Arena damaged as deadly storm batters UK and heads for northern Europe,” Euronews, 18 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Latvian Prime Minister expects long-term pressure from Russia 

On 18 February, during an interview with POLITICO in Brussels, the Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš expressed that Russia would have a hold over Ukraine and Europe for an extended period of time. He said: “In the best-case scenario — best-case meaning no war — we will be facing long-term pressure from Putin on Ukraine and on Europe as a whole… we have to be prepared for probably a long haul — not two weeks or two months or even two years.” (Jacopo Barigazzi, Andrew Gray and Cory Bennett, “West must brace for years of Putin pressure on Ukraine, Latvian PM says,” POLITICO, 18 February 2022)

Fire on Euroferry Olympia near Corfu islands 

On 18 February, a boat with 290 people on board the Euroferry Olympia was to be rescued as the ferry burst into flames. The incident happened near the Greek island of Corfu and was headed for the Italian port of Brindisi when a fire broke out on the car deck. The Greek coast guard said: “Most of the passengers were Italian nationals, according to Ionian islands governor Rodi Kratsa-Tsagaropoulou, while the crew was both Greek and Italian.” 11 people were still missing, but the official still has to confirm the number of people who were able to leave the ferry when the orders to abandon the ship were given. (Ferry fire: Eleven missing as hundreds rescued off Corfu, BBC, 18 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Blinken to meet Lavrov soon

On 17 February, the US State Department announced Secretary of State Antony Blinken to have agreed to a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Previously, speaking at the UN Security Council meeting, Blinken expressed: “We don’t know precisely how things will play out, but here’s what the world can expect to see unfold… Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing, or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly.” (Julian Borger, Daniel Boffey and Dan Sabbagh, “Ukraine crisis: Blinken and Lavrov agree to meeting as tensions reach 'moment of peril',” The Guardian, 18 February 2022) 

EU and African Union leaders meet in Brussels 

On 18 February, EU and African leaders discussed reviving their relations that were hampered due to COVID-19. 40 African heads of government and state were expected to meet 27 EU leaders and the presidents of the Institution in Brussels. As reported by Euronews: “The joint summit is seen as an opportunity to turn the page on the last couple of years and open a new chapter to address common challenges, such as climate change, the energy transition, sustainable development, and the economic recovery.” As a way to improve their relations, the EU officials have pledged a EUR 150 billion investment package that would be announced during the summit. (“EU and African leaders meet in Brussels to reset relations after turbulent COVID years,” Euronews, 18 February 2022)

Antonio Guterres: “catastrophic” outcome is conflict in Eastern Europe escalates into war 

On 18 February, UN N Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates into a war, it would be catastrophic. He further said: “With a concentration of Russian troops around Ukraine, I am deeply concerned about heightened tensions and increased speculation about a military conflict in Europe. I still think it will not happen. But if it did, it would be catastrophic.” Guterres made these remarks during the Munich Security Conference and also said: “It’s high time to seriously de-escalate.” (“UN chief says Russian invasion of Ukraine would be ‘catastrophic’,” BBC, 18 February 2022


18 February 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #128

Ukraine: Kyiv in talks with Washington over potential SDRs from IMF

Macron announces troop withdrawal from Mali; Shelling increases in Eastern Ukraine; Russia criticized for expelling the US diplomat;

Photo : REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

FRANCE

Emmanuel Macron announced withdrawal of troops from Mali

On 17 February, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of troops and allies in European force from Mali. The French troops had been present in Mali to battle out Islamist militants since 2013 and upon the crack in the diplomatic relations has made the French to withdraw from the region. Macron said: "We cannot remain militarily engaged alongside de-facto authorities whose strategy and hidden aims we do not share." In response, spokesperson from the Junta said: “terrorism engulfed the entire Malian territory.” The start point to the break in relation between France and Mali began when the army took over in a coup in 2020. (“Mali conflict: Macron announces troops to leave after nine years,” BBC, 17 January 2022)

PORTUGAL

CNE to delay the Socialist party from taking charge

On 17 February, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) delayed the positioning of the new Socialist government. It had asked the Portuguese citizens to vote again in March. The repeat of elections is due to recent court ruling against the agreement of political parties to remove the need to include identity of voters in the mail-in ballot. The court declared such votes to be illegal and invalid. With the court decision, the socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa who won with majority, will not be able to take up the role as per schedule on 23 February. (“Portuguese voters abroad to recast ballots after election mess-up,” Reuters, 17 January 2022)

NETHERLANDS

Dutch Prime Minister apologises to Indonesia on using extreme violence

On 17 February, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte apologised to Indonesia for the use of systematic and extreme violence against citizens during the 1945-49 war of independence. A recent study of three historic institutions found that in the archipelago nation's war of independence, Dutch armed forces, politicians, civil servants, and judges had engaged deliberately in a violent manner towards the public of Indonesia. According to the review: “"extrajudicial executions, ill-treatment and torture, detention under inhumane conditions, the torching of houses and villages, the theft and destruction of property and food supplies, disproportionate air raids and artillery shelling, and what were often random mass arrests and mass internment." (“Netherlands apologizes to Indonesia over war crimes,” Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2022)

ECONOMY

Ukraine: Gold rates spike to eight-month high; Euro falls

On 17 February, the rate of gold reached an eight-month high while safe-haven debt increased alongside. This was considered a result of the warning of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine by US President Joe Biden. While the bonds of the US and German governments witnessed a fall, the oil rates also saw a fall owing to Iran nuclear deal reaching its last stages. The Euro fell by 0.11 per cent to USD 1.1361 while the bitcoin fell by 8.2 per cent to USD 40,470.33. Meanwhile, Chief Investment Officer at Key Private Bank commented: “There's a lot of confusion right now and everybody's crystal ball is pretty cloudy… It's going to be a challenging year, but not a dire year. Expect some volatility this year, but don't abandon risk altogether, don't get super defensive. There's a lot of missed opportunities inside the market.” (Herbert Lash, “Gold jumps, stocks slide on Ukraine tensions mount,” Reuters, 18 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Kyiv in talks with Washington over potential SDRs from IMF

On 17 February, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko announced that the country is in talks with the US on the possibility of receiving the International Monetary Funds’ (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). This facility would let countries transfer reserve assets to Kyiv. Marchenko stated: “We are discussing a very sophisticated tool which can help us with SDR allocation.” This is an initiative undertaken by the Ukrainian government against the Russian gathering of troops along its border. Marchenko, hoping the US grant of USD 1 billion reaching the country soon, added: “U.S. guarantee means that we can borrow with a triple A rating… We can top up necessary finance to finance our deficit, we'll be able to support our currency as well.” (Karin Strohecker and Natalia Zinets, “EXCLUSIVE Ukraine bids for SDR transfers in funding push, new IMF deal - FinMin,” Reuters, 17 February 2022) 

Ukraine: UN Political Affairs Chief calls for Minsk Protocol implementation 

On 17 February, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo called for the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements. Commenting on the ambiguous information being spread regarding the status of the Russian troops along the Ukraine border, DiCarlo stated: “Whatever one believes about the prospect of such a confrontation, the reality is that the current situation is extremely dangerous.” She called on a de-escalation of the crisis using regional and other frameworks enabling increased diplomacy. (“Ukraine crisis: UN political affairs chief calls for ‘maximum restraint’,” UN News, 17 February 2022) 

Eastern Ukraine: Shelling increases, continues for second day

On 18 February, Reuters reported eastern Ukraine to be witnessing increased shelling for the second day in a row. The West has termed this escalation as a potential Russian justification for an invasion. No deaths have been reported yet. The OSCE’s mission in eastern Ukraine reported around 600 violations of the ceasefire agreements on 17 February alone. The Kremlin also commented on the escalation terming it as “dangerous”. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden commented: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in.” (Dmitry Antonov and Pavel Polityuk, “Alarm as east Ukraine shelling enters second day,” Reuters, 18 February 2022) 

Russia criticized for expelling the US diplomat

On 17 February, White House deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre while warning on the increasing tensions on Russian invasion, called the dismissal of the US Deputy Ambassador to Russia as “unprovoked.” Jean Pierre criticized Russia’s act to expel the Deputy Chief, stating the importance of diplomatic individuals at a crisis situation was important to exchange critical communication. On the same lines of President Joe Biden, she warned that the attack by Russia on Ukraine may occur at any moment. (“Russia expulsion of U.S. deputy ambassador 'unprovoked' - White House, Reuters, 17 January 2022)


17 February 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #127

EU to discuss tensions in Ukraine

EU pledges EUR 30 billion for Africa; Mixed responses received for Russian troop withdrawal video

Photo : REUTERS/Michele Tantussi


IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

THE UNITED KINGDOM

UK to revise its golden visa scheme to mitigate corruption

On 17 February, the golden visa scheme offered by the UK government has come under review. The UK government is expected to announce the removal of the scheme despite pressure building over between the UK and Russia. Initially the scheme was introduced in 2008 to draw investments into the UK from people outside the EU. Those who held the tier one visa spent GBp two million, later were offered permanent residency through the scheme. They were also allowed to bring their families along. With the review in process, the Home Office has decided to modify the visa scheme to end corruption. (“UK to scrap golden visa scheme for foreign investors,” BBC, 17 February 2022)

RUSSIA

New charges against Alexei Navalny 

On 16 February, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was put under a new trial. He was accused of stealing USD 4.7 million from the donations given to his political organizations. Navalny is currently serving a two-and-a-half-year sentence. The accusations of the new frauds can keep him in jail for an additional ten years. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the charges seemed dubious and called on the Russian government to release Navalny and his associates as they were being, “targeted for their work to shine a light on official corruption.” Navalny said: “You’re going to increase my term indefinitely. What can we do about it?” (“Putin critic Navalny put on trial again in Russia,” BBC, 16 February 2022)

CULTURE

Oscar nominees include classic 1960’s movies for the category of Best Picture

On 16 February, in the Oscar nominees announced on 08 February, amongst the nominees, Stephen Spielberg’s remake of “West Side Story,” “Belfast,” and other movie from various categories such as comedies, nostalgia and foreign were presented. The Belfast story brings out the political turmoil of the working class in the Northern Irish capital in the 1960’s. Last date to vote for the nominees have been scheduled as 03 March through Twitter and Oscars are set to be presented by 27 March in Los Angeles. (“2022 Oscars to include top film voted by Twitter users,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

EU to discuss tensions in Ukraine before the Africa summit

On 16 February, EU leaders announced plans to discuss the troop buildup by Russia on the Ukrainian border before the EU-Africa summit. An EU official said: “The leaders are meeting in Brussels for the Africa summit and they wanted to meet and discuss the crisis on the Ukrainian border, get updated, exchange information and views.” The meeting would be an informal discussion without any joint statements. The only worry of the EU leaders is that the discussion could overshadow the meeting with the African leaders. A diplomat mentioned: “The alternative, to cancel the summit with the AU [because of the tensions with Moscow], was worse than going ahead and then risking that the summit could be overshadowed.” (Jacopo Batigazzi, “EU leaders to meet on Thursday to discuss Russia,” POLITICO, 16 February 2022; “EU leaders to meet on Russia on Thursday - EU officials,” Reuters, 16 February 2022)

New French based military alliance to stand permanent for European Security

On 16 February, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg reported that NATO continues to see enlarging military on the borders of Ukraine despite Russia’s attempts to make them believe on the withdrawal of weaponry. Stoltenberg portrayed that NATO will be joining the French forces in Romania to for a permanent European security group. He said: “The new normal is that Russia is willing to contest some fundamental principles of our security.” (“NATO chief says European security faces 'new normal',” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

France and EU to announce withdrawal from Mali 

On 16 February, speculation arose of France and EU partners in Mali to announce a military withdrawal. France has about 15,000 peacekeeping troops, and the European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM) is set up in Mali. The speculations come after French government spokesperson Gabriel Attal said continuing in Mali is: “not possible in a very deteriorated context in Mali, with the seizure of power by a junta, the refusal to apply a timetable for the return to democratic order which had been announced and the use of a private Russian militia, Wagner, reputedly close to the Kremlin.” Estonian Defence Minister Kalle Laanet also commented on the issue, saying the conditions were not conducive to continue in the region, and all allies felt the same. (“Mali: France and EU partners expected to announce military withdrawal,” Euronews, 16 February 2022) 

EU pledges EUR 30 billion for Africa

On 16 February, European Banks and EU financial institutions announced to pledge EUR 30 billion for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The French Development Agency (AFD) said it would extend its support to the private sector and infrastructural development in loans and budget guarantees for the next four years from 2023-to 2027. AFD Director-General Rémy Rioux said: “It is a question of building a new alliance between our two continents, an alliance of all the actors of solidarity and sustainable investment, public and private.” The money is a part of the Global Gateway plan and, as reported by Euronews: “is supposed to mobilize up to €300 billion in public and private funds by 2027 in infrastructure projects around the world, half of which to the African continent.” (“EU financial institutions pledge €30 billion for Africa on eve of summit,” Euronews, 16 February 2022) 

Mixed responses recorded on the military withdrawal video launched by Russia

On 17 February, the US, the UK, Ukraine, NATO responded to the video released by Russia’s Defense Ministry showing the exit of some of its troops from Ukrainian border. Although everyone has responded, all the answers seem to be varied. The US officials has said that the video launch by Russia could be a false, which might be a diversion to lead the invasion into Ukraine. In case of the UK, it stated that it will judge Russia based upon its actions and it was soon to agree on the withdrawal of the troops. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky and the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg said that the exit or withdrawal of the military from the border was not visible or evident. The warning for an invasion still stands from the side the US. (“Ukraine crisis: Russian claim of troop withdrawal false, says US,” BBC, 17 January 2022; “Ukraine: UK will judge Russia by its actions, says minister Ben Wallace, BBC, 17 January 2022; “Ukraine: 'We do not see any signs of de-escalation on the ground' – Nato,” BBC, 16 January 2022)


16 February 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #126

Slovakia’s defense agreement with the US: Three reasons why people are protesting

Germany’s Scholz meets with Putin; ECJ rules out to cut funds for those defying Rule of Law; Ukraine’s state banks under cyber-attack 

Photo : Olivier Matthys/Pool via REUTERS


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Slovakia’s defense agreement with the US: Three reasons why people are protesting

On 10 February, President Zuzana Čaputová ratified the Defence Cooperation Agreement with the US. Slovakia’s Parliament had earlier approved the agreement and the usage of two Slovak air force bases for the next ten years. The deal was signed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Slovakian Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad. Seventy-nine members approved the bill of the 150 strong Slovakian Parliament.

The vote happened amid protests as the fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remained high. The protestors rallied outside the Parliament and held up banners and flags that said, “Stop USA Army.” Blinken mentioned how: “Nothing in [the] agreement creates permanent US bases or troop presence in Slovakia, and the agreement fully respects Slovakia’s sovereignty and laws.” 

Nonetheless, there have been reservations about the agreement, for the following three reasons:

First, the intricacies of the agreement.  

The bilateral agreement has been in negotiation since 2018. But, it has remained a bone of contention in Slovakia even after receiving its mandate from the Parliament. A clause in the agreement allows the US to use the air force bases of Malacky-Kuchyňa and Sliač rent-free. One of the airports shares a short mountainous border with Ukraine and has raised concerns of its citizens, who are worried that the US would use this to undermine Slovakia’s sovereignty and place nuclear weapons in the country. However, 23 NATO countries like Poland and Hungary have signed similar agreements with the US, and it was not something caused by the recent tensions in Ukraine. 

Second, the opportunistic politics.

Slovakia has been expanding links with the West. However, the opposition parties have used the agreement to play politics with Slovakia’s security issues. The Smer party, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Robert Fico, had initiated the talks with the US in 2018. 

However, recently, he backtracked and accused the government of granting the US permission to deploy soldiers closer to Russian borders. Meanwhile, under Fico, the government had signed the USD 800 million Slovakia F-16 fighter jet contract and held multiple joint military training exercises with the US indicating a duality in his stance. 

Slovakia’s Prosecutor General Maroš Žilinka, too had recently called for a complete scarp of the agreement as he accused it of being against Bratislava’s constitution. At the same time, he flew to Russia to attend celebrations of the 300th anniversary of the Russian Prosecutor’s Office. His comments received criticism as a Prosecutor General was not supposed to be involved in politics. 

Third, Slovakias Russian legacy.

Slovakia has had cordial relations with Russia since 1993, and the latter has many sympathizers in Bratislava. However, according to the Russian News Agency, TASS, the US’ primary goal was to deploy US troops closer to the Russian border. Slovakia’s former Prime Minister Robert Fico reaffirmed TASS’ speculations and further talked about the agreement saying: “This agreement [on military cooperation with the United States] betrays Slovakia’s national interests.”

Recent tensions with Ukraine have also expedited the defense agreement. Nevertheless, the issues are more contentious in Slovakia, as a recent opinion poll by Reuters stated that 44.1 per cent believed that NATO and the US were the cause of the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. In comparison, only 34.7 per cent held Russia responsible. The outcome of the polls indicated a mixed response from the people due to their shared legacy with Russia. 

Thus, even though the agreement was signed, there were continuing protests by the people and opposition party members. Even after the agreement’s ratification, Slovakian lawmakers were targeted with posters stuck outside their homes, calling them a traitor. Slovak deputy Miroslav Kollár called the recent developments “…reminiscent of the onset of fascism.”

References:

Slovak government approves defence treaty with United States,” Reuters, 12 February 2022

Slovakia backs US defence pact despite opposition during Ukraine crisis,” Reuters, 10 February 2022

US troops set to use military bases in Slovakia after MPs approve controversial treaty,” Euronews, 09 February 2022

Michal Hudec, “Simple defence agreement with US divides Slovakia,” EURACTIV, 20 January 2022

Slovak-US military agreement geared to deploys US troops closer to Russia - ex-PM,TASS, 16 January 2022

Barbara Zmušková, “Slovak Prosecutor General rejects defence agreement with US, plans trip to Russia,” EURACTIV, 06 January 2022

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

ITALY

Euthanasia: Court thwarts referendum attempt

On 15 February, Italy’s Constitutional Court prevented a potential referendum on decriminalizing euthanasia. In August, supporters for assisted suicide gathered 750,000 signatures which were more than the required limit. Via a press release, the court maintained that the referendum would deny the “minimum protection of human life in general, particularly with reference to weak and vulnerable persons”. According to Italy’s present law, individuals assisting suicides can be jailed for five to 12 years. Nonetheless, the blockade and the subject has caused a split in Italian political parties. (“Italy: Constitutional court blocks euthanasia referendum,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2022)

NORTHERN IRELAND

CSO reports increase in Northern Ireland exports to Republic Ireland

On 16 January, Central Statistics office (CSO) reported that the good exported by Northern Island to the Republic of Ireland has increased by 65 per cent since 2020. The value has come up to EUR four billion in 2021 and likewise the Ireland’s exports to Northern Island has also increased to 54 per cent. In the post-Brexit, businesses in Northern Ireland have been affected to checkpoint and restrictions on the good imported from the UK, as per the report the trade between the UK and the Northern Ireland has decreased by EUR 2.4 billion. There is also a challenge as there are no current assessment to measure the trade exchange between Northern Ireland and the UK. (“Brexit: Northern Ireland goods exports to Republic 'reached €4bn in 2021',” BBC, 16 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

UK in trouble in identifying Russian Oligarch funds

On 15 February, the UK government announced that in event of a Russian invasion, strict sanctions will be imposed on Russia. Previously British Foreign Secretary had warned that Russia will pay a heavy price for an invasion. Upon UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visit, the sanction plans were set to target individuals close to Russian President Putin. With the reveal of “Londongrad” which contains the investment of Russian Oligarchs into the financial combining along with the UK’s capital. In the present situation with tensions growing with Russia, the UK will face a challenge in uprooting the oligarchs. (“'Londongrad': UK's tough balancing act on Russian sanctions,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2022)

UKRAINE

Defense ministry and state banks under cyber-attack once again

On 15 February, Ukraine reported cyber-attack on its defense ministry and two state owned banks. As per the statement given by Ukraine's Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security: “Privat assures that there is no threat to depositors' funds.” It is suspected that the attack began on 15 February and aggravated by 16 February. Ukrainian government is yet to spot the suspect responsible for the attack, but it believes it to be Russia. Previously, Ukrainian government experienced a website-defacing attack, which warned the Ukrainian citizens to expect the worst. (The Cube, “Ukraine's defence ministry and two banks targeted in cyberattack,” Euronews, 15 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Russia: Germany’s Scholz meets with Putin

On 15 February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Russian President Vladimir Putin during his inaugural visit to Moscow. Engaging in diplomacy over the Ukraine crisis, Scholz stated that it was their responsibility to avoid an “escalation into war”. Scholz added: “For Europeans, it is clear that lasting security cannot be achieved against Russia but only with Russia… Dialogue cannot end in a cul de sac, that would be a disaster for everyone.” During the joint press conference, Putin expressed: “We are ready to work further together. We are ready to go down the negotiations track.” (“Ukraine crisis: 'We don't want war in Europe' Putin says in talks with Scholz,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2022)

Ukraine: Russia’s EU ambassador denies the possibility of imminent invasion  

On 16 February, Deutsche Welle reported the Russian ambassador to the EU Vladimir CHizhov to have denied claims of an imminent Russian invasion. Chizhov’s comments were published by Die Welt, which reported: “As far as Russia is concerned, I can assure you that there will be no attack this Wednesday.” This was in reference to the allegations made by the West of the Kremlin invading Kyiv on 16 February. Chizhov added: “There will be no escalation in the coming week either, or in the week after that, or in the coming month.” The ambassador maintained that accusations such as these needed to be backed by evidence and that the West lacked this. (“No Ukraine attack 'in the coming month' says Russia's EU ambassador,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2022)

ECJ rules out to cut funds for those states breeching democracy

On 16 February, the European Court of Justice announced that Brussels can decide to cut funds to countries which defy the rule of law standards. According to the court, the commission was mandated to follow the procedural requirements and was granted power to withhold funds. The announcement comes after the appeal filed by Hungary and Poland. Both countries pleaded against the sanctions mechanism which targets countries that disregard the rule of law by blocking the EU funds. For which Brussels came with a measure to cut funding due to allegations on Warsaw and Budapest for undermining democratic standards. On the same, the Commission sent formal letters in November to Warsaw and Budapest. Both Hungary and Poland have been accused by the European commission and Brussels for misuse of the EU funds and for not valuing the independence of the judges. Therefore, will the order from ECJ Brussels will now be able cut funds to Poland and Warsaw, but for the Commission, it will need votes to go ahead with the sanction mechanism. (“EU top court dismisses Hungary-Poland rule-of-law challenge,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Biden states Russian withdrawal of troops “unverified”

On 15 February, US President Joe Biden responded to the footage of Russian troops withdrawing from the Ukrainian border. He warned that there still existed the possibility of a war. Meanwhile, few of the Russian soldiers stationed along the Ukrainian border returned to their bases following the completion of their exercises. The Kremlin spokesperson commented on this withdrawal: “We have always said that after the exercises are over ... troops would return to their permanent bases. There's nothing new here. This is a usual process.” The US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith expressed that the claim had yet to be verified. (“Ukraine latest: Biden warns Russian attack still possible,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2022) 


15 February 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #125

Besides Ukraine, the Baltic is also apprehensive of Russia. Four reasons why

Zelenskiy announces Unity Day on 16 February; Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Kyiv; Biden and Johnson discuss on Ukraine over call

Photo : REUTERS/Ints Kalnins


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Besides Ukraine, the Baltic is also apprehensive of Russia. Four reasons why

Besides Ukraine, the Baltic states also are apprehensive about the Russian threat. Why are the Baltic states apprehensive of Russia?

The Baltic states and Russia

One of the primary security concerns regarding the Baltic states is the possibility of the long-term presence of Russian troops stationed in Belarus for the United Resolve 2022 military drills. The Guardian  had earlier cited Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė expressing concern over the “security landscape if Russian forces were to indefinitely remain in Belarus.” The increased troops stationed along the Belarusian borders also indicates the balance of power tilting toward Russia, making for a successful invasion of the east by the Kremlin. This adds to the growing apprehension of the Baltics regarding the status quo in eastern Europe.

Second, the demography of the Baltic states.The Baltic states have a substantial Russian-speaking or ethnic Russian population. A quarter of Estonia’s population is ethnic Russian; despite integration, most ethnic Russians’ children attend Russian language schools and consume Russian media. Analysts consider Narva, Estonia’s third-largest city, consisting of 80 per cent ethnic Russians as the most likely target for Moscow if the Kremlin intends to invade. Meanwhile, 15 per cent of Lithuania’s population is also ethnic Russian. 

Third, the geography, especially the Suwalki Gap, a 40-mile stretch along the Polish-Lithuanian border. This land connects Europe and the Baltic states. On the one hand, it links the NATO allies via land, and on the other, it separates Belarus from Russia’s Kaliningrad. If the Suwalki Gap is captured and Kaliningrad linked with Belarus, the Baltics will be cut off from NATO with no land route to receive reinforcements. As the Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense Kusti Salm stated, the seizure of the Gap would transform the Baltics from a peninsula to an island. This Gap is also expected to cause an economic and military conflict between Russia and NATO if further escalation occurs in the Ukraine standoff. 

Fourth, the role of history. The Baltics face a greater threat than the other European countries due to their history. Nonetheless, the former USSR republics are at the forefront of those calling for a vehement response against Russian aggression. Their past experience of Russian occupation has led Baltic citizens to fear a similar future. As the Estonian Foreign Affairs Minister Eva Maria Liimets said: “Our understanding is more realistic. We really sense the threat here because of our history and our experience.” They had made a conscious choice when they left the USSR and are sticking to the same. A commentary by historian Karolina Wigura and political analyst Jarosław Kuisz expressed: “The Russian military menace to Ukraine reawakens old traumas and, paradoxically, not only those generated from the east. Another angst is, to put it bluntly, that the West will again abandon us… Many citizens of central and eastern Europe have clear memories of living under Moscow’s rule. For them, 30 years of independence is not long enough to banish the worry that we are trapped in a cycle of ever-repeating history.”

References:

Aleksander Olech, “How France-Russia Relations Could Affect the Security of the Baltic Sea Region,” ICDS, 14 February 2022.

Andrius Sytas, “German troops arrive to reinforce Baltics amid tensions over Ukraine,” Reuters, 14 February 2022.

Liz Sly, “How France-Russia Relations Could Affect the Security of the Baltic Sea Region,” The Washington Post, 12 February 2022.

Jamie Dettmer, “Baltic States, Poland Increasingly Alarmed by Revanchist Russia,” VOA News, 08 February 2022. 

Baltic States To Send Weapons To Ukraine In Face Of Possible Russian Invasion,” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, 21 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan  

BELGIUM

Freedom convoy protests in Brussels

On 14 February, the “freedom convoy” protests happening in Paris against the vaccine mandate reached to Brussels. The police in Belgian capital ahead of the protests gathering, blocked the main routes that led to the city and asked the vehicles to park in the outskirts. Despite such preventive measures, more than 150 protestors were found around the Arc de Triomphe at the city center and blocked the roads resulting in traffic jams. According to one of the protestors: “Freedom is swept aside, there's more and more poverty. Even when you work,when the 15th of the month comes round, you haven't got enough to live on.” (“Belgium: 'Freedom Convoy' protest reaches Brussels,” Deutsche Welle, 14 February 2022) 

SWITZERLAND

Switzerland to hold polls for public voting on four issues

On 11 February, Switzerland held a referendum for voting for four main issues from animal testing, tobacco advertising, media subsidies and equity stamp taxes. On animal testing voters will decide if Switzerland can impose a ban on animal and human experiments or not. As far as tobacco advertising is concerned, the vote was passed to ban any tobacco or electronic cigarette related adds in way that provokes young children and adolescent. The ban included, press, posters, internet, cinemas and other events. On media subsidies, the opponents of law have argued that the financial aid of EUR 143 million sent to public funds only benefits wealthy publishers and will vote to whether keep or scrap the funding. In case of the equity stamp taxes, the measure is decided on the taxes on businesses, where one per cent of equity stamp tax to be repealed. The tax will be applicable only when the company equity raises more than EUR 950,000. (Joshua Berlinger, “Swiss referendums: What are the four issues being put to the public this Sunday?,” Euronews, 11 February 2022)

UKRAINE

Volodymyr Zelenskiy announces unity day on 16 February 

On 14 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced a day of unity on 16 February. Western media has been speculating of a Russian invasion, which spared him to call on Ukraine’s citizens to fly flags and sing the national anthem at 10 am on that day. Zelenskiy said: "They tell us 16 February will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity." US’ Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby commented: "I won't get into a specific date, I don't think that would be smart. I would just tell you that it is entirely possible that he could move with little to no warning." Meanwhile, Ukrainian airspace steered clear as tensions had made airliner companies topull back their insurance coverage. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, in response to the pullback, said Ukraine would assure a USD 592 million fund "to ensure flight safety in Ukraine for insurance and leasing companies." (Darya Korsunskaya and Natalia Zinets, "Ukraine president calls for 'day of unity' for 16 February, day some believe Russia could invade," Reuters, 15 February 2022; Mari Eccles, "War worries cloud Ukraine's skies," POLITICO, 14 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Munich Security Report released

On 14 February, the Munich Security Report was released in its annual Conference. The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is an annual event held since 1963 on international security policy. Although it is not part of government, the informal discussion involves high level participants from across the globe. The report brings out the advent of "collective helplessness" amidst the global challenges and brings out debate to overcome them. Longest serving diplomat of MSC Wolfgang Ischinger response to the Ukraine-Russia crisis was most-awaited. When question on the same, he said: "more needs to be done to make people aware of the importance of deterrence as a method of conflict prevention.” (“Munich Security Report: A grim analysis of a wave of global crises,” Deutsche Welle, 14 February 2022)

Cybersecurity threats amidst geopolitical tensions in Europe

On 14 February, EU's cybersecurity agency ENISA and its cyber response team CERT-EU released a joint warning of a possible rise in cyber security threats. The statements mentioned ".. a substantial increase of cybersecurity threats for both private and public organizations across the EU." The authorities "strongly encouraged all public and private sector organizations in the EU to adopt a minimum set of cybersecurity best practices" to avoid getting hacked." The EU's warning came after NATO and the US had sent out similar alerts on 12 February. The US warning stated: "The Russian government has used cyber as a key component of their force projection over the last decade, including previously in Ukraine." (Laurens Cerulus and Mark Scott, "Cyber tensions rise as West fears invasion of Ukraine," POLITICO, 15 February 2022)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Kyiv 

On 14 February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv. As reported by POLITICO, "…Scholz and Zelenskiy played down the likelihood of Ukraine joining the military alliance in the foreseeable future." Zelenskiy said: "the future of the European security architecture will be decided in Ukraine." He also mentioned how Ukraine was ready to discuss "guarantees" that could de-escalate and ensure its territorial integrity. Even though Scholz had repeated what US President Joe Biden had said concerning "very far-reaching and effective sanctions," he still hoped for a peaceful resolution. (Hans Von Der Burchard, "Scholz, Zelenskiy play down talk of NATO membership for Ukraine," POLITICO, 14 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

International organizations relocating their staff out of Ukraine

On 15 February, The World Bank and International Monetary Fund announced temporarily relocating some of their staff in Ukraine. A memo released by the World Bank mentioned: "The World Bank Group's foremost priority is to keep our staff and their families safe. In line with our evacuation policy, temporary relocation of staff is under way and enhanced security measures are in place." Nonetheless, business seems usual in Kyiv amid calls for evacuation. US President Joe Biden had advised its nationals to leave. However, the American Chamber of Commerce said: "We are constantly in touch with our members, Ukraine's government, and the US Embassy. This continuous dialogue and communication have been a strategic pillar of AmCham for the past 30 years in Ukraine." (David Lawder, "World Bank, IMF relocate some staff from Ukraine, operations continue," Reuters, 15 February 2022; "'Business as usual': Western firms in Ukraine resist calls for expats to leave," Euronews, 14 February 2022)

Biden and Johnson discuss on call over possibility of a democratic solution

On 15 February, the US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson discussed on the Ukraine crisis over a 40-minute phone call. After the call, the UK government released a statement saying, that there was still a “crucial window,” for a diplomatic solution for Ukraine, a situation where Russia can draw back its military. The leaders stressed that in case of an incursion, Russia will be fall into a prolonged crisis which will have effect on rest of the world. In the coming days, Johnson will conduct a Cobra meeting to take the issue of the Ukraine with his cabinet members and discuss how UK’s response can be situation. (“Ukraine crisis: Biden and Johnson say still hope for diplomatic agreement,” BBC, 15 January 2022)


14 February 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #124

The One Ocean Summit 2022: EU’s pledges and Four takeaways

Rome adopts judicial system reforms; extreme winter drought in Spain and Portugal; Russia-Ukraine standoff cause global markets to fall

Photo : Ludovic Marin, Pool via AP


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

The One Ocean Summit 2022: EU’s pledges and Four takeaways

On 11 February, leaders and representatives from 100 countries attended the One Ocean summit. Hosting the summit, theFrench President, Emmanuel Macron, said: “a decisive year, and we should take here, in Brest, clear and firm commitments.” The Brest summit brought out ways to deal with the threats to the ocean, such as overfishing, plastic pollution, use of carbon-intensive fuels, and how countries can commit to the measures to preserve the ocean.

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who spoke at the summit, highlighted three critical areas of cooperation to conserve the oceans: “a new international coalition to protect biodiversity on high seas, which constitute 95 per cent of the ocean; a major computing project allowing researchers to digitally simulate the world’s oceans; and the EU’s research mission to restore our ocean and waters by 2030.” 

On the same day, UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay announced two pledges of UNESCO. He stated: "How can we succeed in protecting the ocean when we know so little about it? Only 20 per cent of the seabed is mapped. We need to go further and mobilize the international community so that at least 80 per cent of the seabed is mapped by 2030." Second, "The international community must make education one of the pillars of its action for the ocean. Because if we want to protect it better, we must teach it better. On the occasion of the One Ocean Summit, I am setting a common objective for our 193 Member States: to include ocean education in school curricula by 2025."

Some of the major pledges include the following:

·   Pledge for conservation of biodiversity. 27 Member States of the European Union have committed to the proposed treaty on “High Ambition Coalition on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction” (BBNJ), marking the 40th anniversary of the UNCLOSE. The treaty targets towards sustainable use of marine resources beyond national jurisdiction. 

·        Pledge to deploy navies to increase surveillance of unregulated fishing under the European Regulation of 2008

·        Pledge to new Green Marine Europe label. Till now, 22 European shipowners have promised to take concrete measures towards “underwater noise, pollutant air emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, aquatic invasive species, residues, oily discharge and ship recycling.”

·        Pledge to reduce atmospheric pollution from docked ships. 18 European ports have agreed to ensure a speedy electricity supply to the port-chained ships to reduce greenhouse emissions. In addition, the EU along with Mediterranean countries, France, Spain, Italy, and Monaco, have committed to requesting to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to create a “low sulphur emission zone” and a “Particularly Sensitive Sea Area” to protect cetaceans.

·        Pledge of France and Colombia for blue carbon. An initiative to bring national and multilateral actors to fund the restoration of coastal ecosystems.

Four major takeaways

First, the focus on ocean health. For the first time, an attempt has been made by the EU in drafting a framework towards ocean biodiversity and marine life conservation. There have been many individual laws governing the seas, shipping standards, and marine environment, but through this summit, all the factors affecting the ocean's health have been addressed. 

Second, synonymous goals of UNESCO and the EU. UNESCO has promised to work towards the lag in sea bed mapping and the absence of ocean education in the school curriculum. The EU has proposed the European Digital Twin Ocean and EU4Ocean coalition on the same lines. The given plans promise to fill the gaps in linking technology environmental assessment and create a knowledge base for ocean literacy. 

Third, reduced participation. Both the US and Germany seem to be out of the picture at the summit. In the statement released by the White House, the US recognized the aspect of pollution from plastics; otherwise, it has given only a general statement to stand with France in protecting the environment. Germany, which represents as a climate change leader in Europe, was also absent in making any specific commitment or recommending ideas to improving ocean life.

Fourth, uncertainty in meeting the pledges. The EU as a regional player bringing all member states to follow the BBNJ with a target for 2030 seems to be a high-end goal. However, the question of fulfillment of the committed pledges by the EU will remain uncertain until progress.

What does this mean?

First, the role of the EU. The initiative taken by France under the EU Presidency in providing a deeper analysis of the problems in the oceans and laying out a framework to address them from the national to international level shows the seriousness and capability of the EU as the global climate leader.

Second, a united push. With the EU setting an example to make its member countries commit to the measures towards protecting the ocean and marine life, it acts as a booster for other countries to unite in pledging toward ocean safety. This is a need of the hour.

References: 

One Ocean Summit: new steps strengthen EU leadership in protecting the Ocean,” European Commission, 11 February 2022

World leaders at France summit mull ways to protect oceans,” Associated Press, 11 February 2022

One Ocean Summit: UNESCO pledges to have at least 80% of the seabed mapped by 2030,” UNESCO, 10 February 2022

Brest Commitments for the Oceans,” France Presidency, 11 February 2022

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

FRANCE

Elections: Macron intentionally delays his Presidential candidacy

On 13 February, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen accused French President Emmanuel Macron of intentionally delaying his candidacy to use the COVID-19 related visits for furthering his political campaign. Pen said: “Is Emmanuel Macron using the health crisis to start campaigning? The answer is yes.” The Republican party head Christian Jacob said he had reported the misuse of funds to the National Commission on Elections Financing. France has strict rules about financing presidential campaigns, where only EUR 16.8 million is allowed in the first round. Additionally, EUR 5.6 million is authorized for candidates who qualify for the run-off. (“France: rivals claim foul play as Macron waits to declare presidential candidacy,” Euronews, 13 February 2022)

ITALY

Rome adopts judicial system reforms 

On 12 February, the Italian government approved a law that reformed the country's justice system. The law restricted magistrates in a judicial career trying to move to a political role and back. Italy initiated the reforms as the EU had mandated the changes for Rome to receive its share of the pandemic recovery funds. Justice Minister Marta Cartabia said: “We owe it to the citizens who have the right to regain full trust in our magistrate system.” He further stated that the reforms were implemented to put an end to “revolving door magistrates who take on a political post.” (“Italy: Government reform to ban politicians from returning to judiciary roles,” Euronews, 12 February 2022)

UKRAINE

EUR 520 million fund allocated for continuation of flights

On 13 February, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal announced that the country had allotted UAH 16.6 billion (EUR 520 million) to guarantee the continuance of flights through its airspace. The announcement comes due to the rising fears of a Russian invasion. Shmygal said: “This decision will stabilize the situation on the market of passenger air transportation and will guarantee the return to Ukraine of our citizens who are currently abroad.” Increased concern regarding the closure of airspace was expressed to be pointless by the Ukrainian President’s Chief of Staff who said: “The most important point is that Ukraine itself sees no point in closing the sky. And, in my opinion, that would somewhat resemble a kind of partial blockade." (“Ukraine promises funds to keep flights passing through its airspace,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine via OSCE asks Russia to explain troop build-up 

On 14 February, the Ukrainian government called for a meeting with Russia as tensions escalated between the two. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Russia had not informed about the recent troop build-up on the border and had not responded to the formal requests. Ukraine made a formal request through the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to explain the military activities undertaken by Russia. OSCE members have the right to ask for information on another member’s actions. Kuleba said: “If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security in the OSCE space, it must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all.” (“Ukraine seeks meeting with Russia within 48 hours to discuss build-up,” BBC, 14 February 2022)

CLIMATE-CHANGE

Spain and Portugal face extreme winter drought

On 13 February, as reported by Euronews: “Climate change-induced extreme winter drought devastates crops in Spain and Portugal.” In 2021, Spain had received 35 percent of its average rainfall in the last few months, and it has not seen any precipitation since then. This is the first time since 2005 when no rain was recorded for January and February. A farmer in Spain’s southern Almería Andrés Góngora said: “The past two, three years have been dry, with the tendency toward less and less rain.” Spain’s government has decided to give over EUR 570 million of the pandemic funds to make its irrigation systems more efficient. Portugal has also been undergoing a similar situation with little rain since October 2021. National weather agency IPMA climatologist Vanda Pires said: “It’s part of the context of climate change.” (“Climate change-induced extreme winter drought devastates crops in Spain and Portugal,” Euronews, 13 February 2022)

ECONOMY

Global Markets: Oil rates spike to a seven-year high

On 14 February, The Guardian reported global markets to have been adversely affected by the Russia-Ukraine standoff leading to a seven-year high in oil prices. Morning trading saw UK’s FTSE 100 at 7,501 which fell by two per cent. Travel-related stocks were the most affected with IAG, the British Airways owner, seeing a fall of seven per cent. The price of oil has soared to 23 per cent more than it was when 2022 began; meanwhile, natural gas prices went up by 4.9 per cent. The falling European shares caused a sell-off in Asia. (Mark Sweney, “Global markets tumble as Russia-Ukraine tensions hit shares,” The Guardian, 14 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Biden and Zelenskyy hold telephonic conversation

On 13 February, US President Joe Biden held a telephonic conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Following the call, the White House released a statement that maintained that the two leaders agreed that continuing deterrence and diplomacy against Russian aggression was important. Meanwhile, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned of an imminent escalation, saying: “We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window, and an invasion could begin — a major military action could begin — by Russia in Ukraine any day now. That includes this coming week before the end of the Olympics.” (“Germany′s Scholz vows ′immediate′ sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2022) 


12 February 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #123

The Normandy format: A profile

Ukraine remembering the great famine; Johnson receives questionnaire from the police regarding the partygate scandal; Biden and Putin schedule phone conversation; 

Photo : Anne-Christine Poujoulat/REUTERS


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

The Normandy format: A profile

On 10 February, similar to the previous meet in January, an advisory level meeting was held between Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia in Berlin. The meeting was conducted amidst in the backdrop of a warning from the US on the possibility of an invasion by Russia. The meeting aimed to bring the focus back on the 2015 Minsk agreement to stop war tensions in the eastern Ukraine region. Since none of the parties agreed to the negotiations made, no motion was passed. Kremlin envoy Dmitry Kozak said: “Unfortunately, almost nine hours of negotiations ended without any visible, tangible results expressed in documents.”

On 26 January, Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia representatives held talks under the Normandy Format at the Elysee Palace in Paris. After the talks, Adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Andriy Yermak welcomed the format and said it was positive.

Normandy format: A profile

The Normandy format is devised to regulate a four-way talk to end the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine between the Ukraine government and the pro-Russian separatists. The parties to the format were France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia. The talk first took place in 2014 in Normandy on a similar conflict situation in Ukraine, where Russia had annexed Crimea and the pro-Russian separatists infiltrated eastern Ukraine. Until 2019, the Normandy talks were paused. The invitation to other states such as Belarus, Italy and the United Kingdom was also extended, but there has been no participation. 

Strengths

First, the timing. The Normandy format or the talks started at a crucial point. It had served as a quick barricade to the conflict from escalating further in 2014 or reduce the intensity, when Russia was at war in eastern Ukraine after annexing Crimea.

Second, the format. The four-way format is the best approach to diplomacy. It allows Russia, a powerful country, to put forth its demands. In the same way, it also provides Ukraine, which is comparatively a weaker one, a protective stage to voice its concerns. Apart from the conflicting parties, the format also sets the stage for the region's top countries, France and Germany, to oversee and engage in negotiation.

Thirds, Europe as mediator. Instead of involving external powers to mediate the issue inside the region, the format allows solving regional interactions, which is an advantage to avoid escalations and reduce tensions.

Weakness

First, convincing Russia. France and Germany's renewed attempts to negotiate with Russia under the Normandy format do show their tactical approach but are yet to be proven. The demand of Russia and the needs of Ukraine are at two extreme points, making it a challenge for France and Germany to establish a common ground.

Second, failure to install peace in eastern Ukraine. The purpose of forming the Normandy format in 2014 was to attain peace in the region. Although a ceasefire was achieved through the attempts of Minsk agreements, reducing the intensity of violence, Russia still operates the region through the separatist group, which has now led to threatening the national security of Ukraine. Therefore, it shows the ineffectiveness of the format because it has been present since 2014 and did not foresee the threat nor did anything to prevent it from happening. 

Third, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is out of focus. A controversial pipeline that involves Ukraine, Germany, and Russia is not on the discussion agenda. Germany still has reservations over Russia on the pipeline, leading to mistrust between Ukraine and Germany. Thereby can create a crack in the proceedings of the Normandy talks.

References:

Normandy Four meets in Berlin: Ukraine benefits as advisors fail to agree,” Ukraine Crisis media center, 11 February 2022

Has weeklong diplomacy made war in Ukraine any less likely?,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2022

EXPLAINER: What are the key parts of Ukraine's peace deal?,” Washington Post, 10 February 2022

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

THE UK

PM Johnson sent a questionnaire from the police 

On 11 February, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he received a legal questionnaire from the police due to his involvement in the partygate scandal. Johnson said he had seven days to respond to the email as the Metropolitan Police investigated the 12 parties held in Downing Street. These parties were not included in Sue Gray’s report as they did not happen in government buildings. As reported by The Guardian: “The former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith has warned Boris Johnson it will be hard to cling to power if the Metropolitan police finds he breached Covid rules.” (“‘Partygate’: Boris Johnson sent questionnaire from police,” Deutsche Welle, 11 February 2022; Jem Bartholomew, “Boris Johnson’s position ‘difficult’ if Met fines him, warns Iain Duncan Smith,” The Guardian, 12 February 2022)

UKRAINE

Remembering the great famine amidst tensions with Moscow

On 12 February, Ukraine’s recent tensions with Russia reminded the people of the Great Famine that happened in the 1930s. The famine was caused partly by the Soviet Dictator Joseph Stalin and his policies of forced collectivization of farms. An estimated four million people were killed in the famine, and Ukraine called the death by starvation. With the tensions rising with Moscow, Ukrainians were reminded of the memories they suffered under the Kremlin. (“Ukraine’s Great Famine memories fuel resentment of Kremlin,” BBC, 12 February 2022)

BREXIT

UK Foreign SecretaryLiz Truss meets with EU Maroš Šefčovič in London

On 12 February, the UK and EU stated that they would hold another round of intensive discussions after the recent negotiations between UK Foreign SecretaryLiz Truss and EU Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič came to an end. Truss said: “Fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol is an absolute priority for me. We have a shared responsibility with the EU to work towards solutions as quickly as possible that deliver for the people of Northern Ireland.” (Jayne McCormack, “Brexit: UK and EU to continue ‘intensive’ NI protocol talks,” BBC, 12 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Biden and Putin schedule phone conversation 

On 12 February, Reuters reported the US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to have scheduled telephonic talks. The call, requested by Putin, comes amidst escalating tensions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented: "I continue to hope that he will not choose the path of renewed aggression and he'll chose the path of diplomacy and dialogue… But if he doesn't, we're prepared." TASS news agency also reported Putin to have scheduled talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on the same day. (Trevor Hunnicutt, "Biden and Putin to speak as Ukraine warnings mount," Reuters, 12 February 2022) 

Ukraine: NATO expands troop deployment along eastern flank

On 11 February, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. Stoltenberg announced that the alliance would increase its military presence in eastern Ukraine while considering a long-term presence in the Black Sea region. He commented: “There is an ongoing strengthening of our NATO presence in the eastern part of the alliance… We’ve also increased the readiness of NATO’s response force." He added: "On top of that we are considering more longer-term adjustments in our posture, and that includes establishing battlegroups in the southeast of the alliance, meaning Romania but also other countries around the Black Sea region.” ("NATO welcomes more U.S. forces to Romania, says reinforcing in east," Reuters, 11 February 2022)

The UK and the US send advisories, asking citizens to leave Kyiv

On 11 February, the US and UK sent warnings to their citizens in Ukraine to evacuate within 48 hours due to an imminent threat from Russia. Attempts to de-escalate tensions were continuing, but the US’ statement has prompted other counties also to issue new advisories regarding Ukraine. UK ambassador to Ukraine Melinda Simmons said she would be staying with a core team of officials in Kyiv. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said: “As we’ve said before, we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.” The warnings led to the rise of the US dollar, and its oil crude futures also rose more than five percent to USD 94.66 a barrel. (“Ukraine tensions: Russia invasion could begin any day, US warns,” BBC, 11 February 2022; Hannah Lang and Herbert Lash, “Dollar gains as Ukraine tensions rise after US warning,” Reuters, 12 February 2022)


11 February 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #122

Poland and China: President Duda’s meeting with Xi

New planet discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri; Biden calls on US citizens to leave Ukraine; Europe-Africa investment scheme announced

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Poland and China: President Duda’s meeting with Xi

On 06 February, Polish President Andrzej Duda met President Xi Jinping during the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022. Both discussed bilateral ties, potential Chinese investments in constructing a logistics hub in Poland, and the development of a China-Europe supply chain with Poland as a key nodal point. Duda’s visit highlights the thawing Polish-China relations that withstood time and is essential for the following three reasons.

I) Poland is China’s wild card in the CEEC cooperation

2022 marks the tenth anniversary of China-Poland. Xi hopes to establish a wholesale market for agricultural products in Poland. In April 2012, the China-CEEC cooperation-an economic and political agreement was created with 16 Eastern European members and China; Warsaw was chosen as the cooperation capital. 

But, Poland played a more significant role than just being the leader in the cooperation of the region as its center is set up in Warsaw. It also endorsed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the area. China repeatedly turned to Poland whenever there was discontentment in the CEEC. When Lithuania had announced that it would limit its participation in the initiative in May 2021, China revived its diplomatic efforts in the region, especially with Poland, to control the spillover of Lithuania’s decisions. 

 From the recent meeting, China’s Foreign Affairs ministry said: “Poland will continue to play a positive role in promoting CEEC-China cooperation and EU-China relations, and will further step up communication with China to uphold international and regional peace and stability.”

II) Bilateral trade: A Polish gateway for China to Europe

The bilateral trade relations between the two countries have been flourishing since 2014, when a direct train line between the city of Chengdu in China and Łódź, a town in Poland, was opened. This was in line with Xi’s plans to revive the new silk road under the BRI initiative. In the recent meeting, Duda had thanked China for supplying critical medical supplies to Poland and spoke about the importance of Poland-China economic cooperation. Xi talked about China expanding its imports of “high-quality products, particularly agricultural products,” and wanted Chinese businesses to invest more in Poland. 

III) Geostrategic partnership

In 2016, besides endorsing the BRI, Poland signed an agreement on strategic cooperation with China, which mentioned the two countries as long-term and stable strategic partners. Poland’s sheer size and population support China’s influence within the CECE’s. Besides, Poland’s strategic location on NATO’s eastern flank, the European Union, and its small border with the Russian Federation indicate its importance. Poland-US relations flourished under Trump, which may have been due to the ideological synergies with the ruling party in Poland. But, under the Biden administration, Warsaw found interest in expanding its relations with China. 

To conclude, the two countries may have seen see-saw moments recently, but Duda’s visit to Beijing could further strengthen bilateral cooperation and relations between them. 

References:

Xi meets with Polish President Duda, vowing to lift bilateral practical cooperation to a new level,” Global Times, 06 February 2022. 

Xi Jinping Meets with Polish President Andrzej Duda,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 02 February 2022. 

Łukasz Kobierski, “A Thaw in Relations Between Warsaw and Beijing?,” Warsaw Institute, 01 July 2021. 

Paweł Paszak, “Poland-China Relations in 2021: Current State and Prospects,” Warsaw Institute, 29 January 2021. 

Poland and China sign strategic partnership declaration,” Presidential PL, 2016 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE

Freedom convoy protests in Paris were banned ahead.

On 10 January, following the trucker's protest in Canada, convoys from around cities of France were scheduled to protest similarly on 11 January. The authorities in Paris, citing the risk of public disturbance, have banned the protests and strictly ruled that any civilian or driver found to be hindering the roads will be subject to license cancellation, two-year imprisonment, or EUR 4500 as a penalty. The protests are happening against the show of vaccine pass to enter social spaces. Police of France has estimated that convoys are using the online platform to organize protests, through which a mix from different political and ideological groups shall participate. (“Freedom Convoy: Paris protest banned by police ahead of arrival,” BBC, 10 January 2022)

France reveals plan for nuclear reactor construction

On 10 January, French President Emmanuel Macron revealed France’s energy plan. As a first step, he aims to construct six new nuclear reactors through state-run energy giant Electricite de France (FDF). Under the energy plan, “third generation pressurized water reactors (EPR) facilities” are set to be constructed by 2050, and additional eight reactors are expected to be added. Macron, who has been in constant support of nuclear energy, is the viable and eco-friendly option. He said: “The time has come for a French nuclear renaissance.” As far as EDF is concerned, it has been long in debt due to challenges in constructing the latest-generation EPR reactors for the UK, France, and Finland. Nuclear reactors involve more cost and complex technology. France has been less serious when it comes to financing reactor projects. (“Macron calls for 'French nuclear renaissance,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2022)

LATVIA

Saeima passes Holocaust restitution law to compensate survivors with EUR 40 million 

On 10 February, the Saeima (parliament) passed a bill that intends to repay the Jewish community over the property they lost after the end of World War II. Termed the "Law on the Compensation of Goodwill to the Latvian Jewish Community," the law would provide compensations of EUR 40 million over the course of 10 years. The Chairman of the Latvian Council of Jewish Communities responded: “Finalizing this process demonstrates that even 77 years after the end of the Holocaust, it is never too late for justice.” The negotiations, which began in 2005, involved the World Jewish Restitution Organization, the US, Israel, Latvian Jewish representatives and government authorities. (“Latvia: Parliament passes Holocaust restitution law,” Deutsche Welle, 11 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Multiple talks held over standoff 

On 10 February, Europe witnessed multiple countries from the region engaging in diplomacy to de-escalate tensions along the Ukrainian border. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with leaders of the Baltic countries, stating that the efforts were towards “preventing a war in Europe”. Scholz will visit Kyiv and Moscow on 14 and 15 February. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels following which he travelled to Poland. After the trip, Johnson warned: “I think today, 10 February 2022, we stand on the edge of a precipice and things are as dangerous as I have seen them in Europe for a very, very long time.” The UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss also met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov commented: “I'm honestly disappointed that what we have is a conversation between a dumb and a deaf person. It's as if we listen but we don't hear.” (“Ukraine crisis: Don′t underestimate West′s resolve, Germany′s Scholz tells Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2022; Dan Sabbagh and Andrew Roth, “PM fears Europe on 'precipice' as Russia expands forces on Ukraine's borders,” The Guardian, 10 February 2022) 

European commission announces investment scheme in Africa

On 10 January, the European Commission to endorse Europe's Global Gateway investment scheme announced the Europe-Africa program. According to President Ursula von der Leyen: “It is the first regional plan under Global Gateway two months after the launch of the strategy.” Where an investment of EUR 150 billion will be made in Africa to focus on green transition, renewable energy generation and protection of biodiversity.  The scheme also aims to create a sustainable agri-food system and job opportunities in the region. (“EU reveals €150 billion investment plan for Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

New planet discovered close to Proxima Centauri

On 10 February, The Guardian reported astronomers to have discovered a new planet orbiting Proxima Centauri which is the closest star to the solar system. Researchers found the planet via observations from the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Chile. Named ‘Proxima d,’ this is the third and the lightest planet to be discovered around Proxima Centauri. According to the lead author of the study published in the Astronomy and Astrophysics journal, João Faria of Portugal’s Institute of Astrophysics and Space Sciences said: “This is a very low mass planet… It shows that these planets, similar to the Earth, may be common in our galaxy, and just close by. And it makes us wonder about the possible conditions for habitability in these planet systems and if it’s possible for life to appear in other places in the universe.” (Ian Sample, “Scientists discover new planet orbiting nearest star to solar system,” The Guardian, 10 February 2022) 

Russian rocket carrying broadband satellite of OneWeb launched

On 10 January, a Russian Soyuz rocket lifted off from the Guiana Space Center located in French Guiana. The rocket carried 34 new broadband satellites for OneWeb the UK operator, which aims to provide commercial internet service at international level. There is a race emerging between private space tech companies in providing fast internet through satellites, SpaceX is the second top with 1,469 Starlink satellites that were launched to facilitate global broadband. Amazon is also set to launch its first internet satellite by 2022. (“UK's OneWeb satellites hitch a ride on a Russian rocket,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Biden appeals to US citizens in Kyiv, “leave now”

On 11 February, The Guardian reported US President Joe Biden to have warned US citizens in Kyiv of an escalating situation regarding the standoff. During an interview with NBC News, Biden said: “American citizens should leave, should leave now… We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. This is a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly.” This comment comes in the backdrop of the failure of multiple diplomatic efforts undertaken over the course of the week. Responding to whether the US would deploy troops to Russia, Biden expressed: “That’s a world war. When Americans and Russians start shooting one another, we’re in a very different world.” (“'Things could go crazy quickly,' Biden warns on Ukraine as talks in Berlin fail,” The Guardian, 11 February 2022) 


10 February 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #121

Maastricht Treaty: Thirty years after

Slovakia's defense cooperation with the US; Pope Francis talks about Normandy format; Hungry to decline more troops from NATO; 

Photo : Wikipedia


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Maastricht Treaty: Thirty years after

On 07 February, Europe celebrated 30 years of the Maastricht treaty. The foreign and finance ministers of 12 member states of the European Community (EC) met in the Dutch city of Maastricht in 1992 and ratified the treaty. The 12 member states of the EC involved Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom.

What is the Maastricht Treaty?

The treaty laid out plans for converting the EC into an economic union, paving the way for the EU and the single currency – the Euro. The original treaty prescribed the roles to be played by the European Parliament and the Council as the EU’s co-legislators. In 2009, the Lisbon treaty simplified the Maastricht treaty, making it more efficient and easier to implement.  

Meanwhile, the treaty absorbed the former EC into a single union dealing in those areas Brussels excelled in – customs union, fisheries, agricultural policy, etc. Due to the sensitive nature of matters being discussed via the common foreign and security policy (CFSP), unanimous decision-making was decided upon. Neither the European Commission nor the European Parliament had a primary role in this. The feature of unanimity remains until this day. The final part of the treaty focused on cooperation between the police and judicial systems. This outlook became all the more significant after the 1985 Schengen agreement.

What is the background?

The Maastricht Treaty followed the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the USSR and the increasing popularity of liberal democracies. Such a situation helped the EC to lay the stepping stones for the creation of the EU. The provision of EU citizenship gave European citizens a feeling of belonging. This attraction added to the ability to live and move “freely” within the bloc.

The Euro

The treaty also set out instructions for the European Central Bank (ECB); making it adhere to the “Maastricht Criteria”. These criteria called for maintaining price stability alongside other requirements necessary for those attempting to accede to the bloc and its single currency. One among these was the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which put limits on the public deficits and government debts of member states; although widely criticized, the pact remains one among the treaty’s greatest contributions.

The drawbacks

Despite the huge success of the single currency, the bloc is yet to establish a fiscal union. The initially homogeneous and 12-membered bloc is now largely heterogeneous and enlarged. This has led to member states struggling to find common ground. Meanwhile, the unanimity requirement has turned out to be the Achilles’ heel of the CFSP’s decision-making process. Unlike the rule of the majority, the need for unanimity proved to be a hindrance to real progress. This sentiment was expressed by Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt as he said: “30 years ago the Maastricht treaty was signed… but never delivered its full potential, neither in common foreign and security policy nor in justice and home affairs. Unanimity and vetoes often blocked any progress.” 

Moreover, the unity of the bloc is diminishing. In terms of the Ukraine conflict, the EU which is supposed to portray a strong and united opposition can be witnessed falling apart from within. The stances of the Baltics, Germany, and Hungary vary so starkly that an external actor is not required to divide and rule the EU, the member states will do it themselves.

Time for reforms?

The long-overdue reforms found their voice via the pandemic; the outbreak of COVID-19 led to an extremely vulnerable economy accompanied by an ever-growing public debt. Calls for amends that would enable increased flexibility are being led by Italy, France and Spain. Meanwhile, these calls are strongly opposed by the Frugal Four – Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden – and a few other countries who opine that rules should not change according to situations. There also exist plans to implement the defense white paper called the Strategic Compass in March 2022.

References:

Richard Nelsson, “ Treaty on European Union signed in Maastricht – archive, 1992,” The Guardian, 09 February 2022.

Stefan Lehne, “Europe is Struggling, Thirty Years After the Maastricht Treaty,” Carnegie Europe, 08 February 2022.

Maastricht Treaty at 30: Pandemic brings unanswered questions back to the fore,” Euronews, 07 February 2022. 

Steven Blockmans, “The Maastricht Treaty 30 years on,” Centre for European Policy Studies, 07 February 2022. 

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

VATICAN

Pope Francis talks about Normandy format and the Ukrainian crisis

On 09 February, Pope Francis spoke about the Ukrainian crisis during his Wednesday general audience. Pope Francis hoped that the diplomatic processes would help avert an armed conflict and he mentioned: “war is insane.” He also said: “Let us continue to implore the God of peace that tensions and threats of war be overcome through serious dialogue, and that the ‘Normandy Format’ talks may also contribute to this.” He also thanked the diplomats of the Normandy format talks for their efforts in negotiating peace. He lastly thanked the people for participating in the prayer for peace held in December 2021. (Joshua Berlinger, “Pope Francis on potential conflict in Ukraine: ‘War is insane’,” Euronews, 08 February 2022)

HUNGRY

Budapest declines additional NATO troops

On 10 February, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated that Hungry would not accept further NATO troops on its soil. Szijjártó said: “No, we have not agreed to that and we will not agree because we have already NATO’s troops on the territory of the country, which is the Hungarian army…So we don’t need additional troops on the territory of Hungary.” His comments came after the US had sent additional troops to Poland and Romania. He also spoke about the rising tensions in Ukraine and said: “… We ask, we urge the international community to do its best in order to avoid the Cold War to return…whenever there is an East-West conflict, the countries of Central Europe lose and we don’t want to be losers anymore.” He further talked about the sanctions and their ineffectiveness as he said that sanctions had been regularly renewed since 2014 but they had no effects on Russia. (“Ukraine crisis: Hungary won’t accept more NATO troops on its soil, says foreign minister Szijjártó,” Euronews, 10 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Russia and Belarus to conduct joint military exercise

On 10 February, Russia and Belarus will begin joint military drills despite the growing tensions in Ukraine. In the drill, 30,000 Russian troops are set to take part in the drills along with Belarus. The US has said that the troop deployment will be the biggest since the cold war. In the case of Russia, it has still not accepted to look away from Ukraine, claiming its closer social and cultural ties with Ukraine. Belarus has come in between the tensions because of its close relations with Russia and sharing the longest border with Ukraine. The Russian EU Ambassador has assured the return of troops after the exercise. The repercussions of the military exercise are yet to be known. (“Ukraine tensions: Russia begins military drills with Belarus,” BBC, 10 January 2022)  

MIGRATION

Austria: Police finds eight migrants being smuggled under a truck 

On 09 February, Austrian police stated that they had found eight migrants hidden in a narrow box under a truck in December 2021. But, the police only publicized the incident on 09 February as the driver who smuggled the people in was arrested on 04 February. The police identified the migrants to be from Turkey and were being illegally smuggled, in life-threatening conditions. Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said: “This case shows once again how inhumane organised trafficking criminals act.” According to the police reports, each migrant had to pay EUR 15,000 to 16,000 to be smuggled illegally. (“Austrian police find migrants in ‘horror box’ under truck,” Euronews, 09 February 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

JET laboratory hit new record in nuclear fusion energy

On 09 February, the UK based JET laboratory broke its own world record in developing practical nuclear fusion. It has hit a new record in the amount of energy that can be extracted from combining two forms of hydrogen. The success of the mission depends on the recreation of the nuclear fusion which can power up the supply of low-carbon and low radiation energy at unlimited levels. According to the head of operations at the reactor lab: “We've demonstrated that we can create a mini star inside of our machine and hold it there for five seconds and get high performance, which really takes us into a new realm.” (Jonathan Amos, “Major breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy,” BBC, 09 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Slovakia: Defence Cooperation Agreement with the US approved amid protests

On 09 February, Slovakia’s Parliament approved the Defence Cooperation Agreement with the US to use two Slovak air force bases for the next ten years. The deal was signed between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Slovakian Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad. The bill was approved by 79 members of the 150 strong Slovakian Parliament. But, the bill is yet to be ratified by the President. The vote was approved amid protests as the fears of Russia invading Ukraine remained high. The protestors rallied outside the Parliament and held up banners and flags that said, “Stop USA Army.” Blinken further mentioned how: “Nothing in [the] agreement creates permanent US bases or troop presence in Slovakia, and the agreement fully respects Slovakia’s sovereignty and laws.” (“US troops set to use military bases in Slovakia after MPs approve controversial treaty,” Euronews, 09 February 2022)

IOC denies to disclose the report on the anti-doping rule violation

On 10 February, the International Olympic Committee declined to provide details of the legal case on the awarding of medals to the figure skating team. The case was filed to detect the involved team or individual who failed in the drug test. Without any notification, the Russian Olympic Committee was awarded with gold before the US and Japan. According to the spokesperson of the IOC, said that since the case was given at a short notice and had many legal implications, he refused to comment on the legal case. The International Testing Agency said: “Any announcement connected to these events would always be publicly issued on the ITA's website and not commented on otherwise. No such announcement has been published to date.” (Anna Thompson “Winter Olympics: IOC 'can't comment' on figure skating speculation,” BBC Sport, 10 February 2022)


09 February 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #120

Italy: Return of President Mattarella. Short term stability, long term challenges

European Commission cut down funds to Poland; Trilateral meeting in Germany; EU to reduce chip storage;

Photo : Alberto Pizzoli/REUTER


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Italy: Return of President Mattarella. Short term stability, long term challenges

On 30 January, Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who was due for retirement, withdrew his plans. He won at the end of the eight-round voting, with 759 counts, more than the 505 needed. The turn around indicated that Italy wanted him to stay. 

Italy had to hold elections as Mattarella had initially remarked that he did not want to continue for a second term. But the political and economic circumstances made him call off his retirement, as he merged victorious, saying: “I had other plans, but if needed, I am at your disposition.” 

The political stalemate and the elections

Italy saw eight rounds of voting that eventually led the party heads to urge Mattarella to change his mind. Mattarella had already prepared to move out of his Presidential Quirinale Palace to a new apartment in Rome. However, he had to recall his decision in the wake of a potential power vacuum;Italy saw six days of inconclusive voting, with around 1,009 lawmakers and regional representatives voting only for a political stalemate. 

Incumbent Prime Minister Mario Draghi was the prominent candidate for the post. However, Parliament members equate Draghi’s victory with political instability, and therefore in no round, he was able to secure more than five votes from the 1000+ voters. Besides the above, nationalist League leader Matteo Salvini on the fifth day of voting towards the conservative Senate president, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati, did not work out as Casellati had received only 382 votes in place of 505, losing by a small margin. 

The call for unity 

With Sergio Mattarella at the helm for a second term, he called on all Italians to pull together and support Italy’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Mattarella, a figure of respect in Italy because of his calm ways of handling crises, also said: “We still need to work together to strengthen Italy, beyond the current difficulties.” Mattarella, as the President, had an influential role to play as he appoints the Prime Minister is often called on to resolve the country’s political crisis and protect the Italian constitution. 

Short term stability, but long term challenges 

Italy will see stability, however, a short-lived one, as it leaves a lot of ambiguity for future elections. But, Italy can continue on its path to pandemic recovery, and Draghi could now focus on governing the coalition and avoid destabilizing the country into early Prime Ministerial elections. The political stalemate had highlighted the deep divisions within Draghi’s ruling coalition as the voting went on for eight rounds before concluding. Lawmakers had also agreed on calling back Mattarella to stabilize the government and secure their jobs and pensions as, if Draghi changed positions, his government would have fallen by default. 

The elections also showed how Italy’s right-wing unity was collapsing. The whole week revealed how the right-wing bloc was split into factions, with a few agreeing to back Mattarella while the rest disagreed. One could also see a rise in leadership battles within the 5Star Movement. As a result, even the current grand alliances will soon see ideological differences while discussing the programs of reforms, pensions, and taxes in the assembly.

Italy can now be back on its path of rapid economic growth with two of its best leaders at Rome’s leadership. This could also be seen as an opportunity to kickstart the economy by unlocking the European recovery funds and bringing in structural reforms before the next race for Prime Ministerial elections began in June 2023. 

Reference 

Hannah Roberts, “Italy chose a president for stability. It may not last long.,” POLITICO, 04 February 2022.

Angelo Amante, “Italy’s president calls for unity as he starts second term,” Reuters, 03 February 2022.

By Gavin Jones, Angelo Amante and Giuseppe Fonte, “Anyone but Draghi” - how an Italian presidential bid fell flat,” Reuters, 03 February 2022.

Holly Ellyatt, “Italy’s 80 year-old president really wanted to retire. He’s just been re-elected amid political stalemate,” CNBC, 31 January 2022. 

Italy: Mattarella re-elected president in eighth round of voting,” Euronews, 30 January 2022.

Jason Horowitz, “Italians Vote for a President. Here’s Why It Matters.,” New York Times, 24 January 2022. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

GERMANY

Investigation launched to look into the speed cross incident

On 09 February, Germany motorways are well-known for having no-speed limit stretches. Recently a Czech millionaire who owned a Bugatti Chiron was found to be crossing the limit of over 417km/hr. The video which was casted in the YouTube, was spotted by the police. An investigation has been launched after the incident was tracked in the German media. According to the police report: “According to the criminal code, a solo drive can still constitute an offence if the driver "moves at an inappropriate speed and in a manner that grossly violates the traffic code and is reckless." (“Czech millionaire investigated over alleged 417km/h motorway drive in Germany,” BBC, 10 February)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

New minister for Brexit opportunities appointed

On 08 February, UK Prime Minister who was in the process of shuffling the cabinet, positioned Jacob Rees Mogg as the new minister for Brexit opportunities. Rees-Morg who was a prominent campaigner in the 2016 EU polling, is viewed as more fitting to the economic role of the cabinet. With the ongoing after-effects of the Party gate scandal, where senior ministers are resigning, a new set of ministers are being placed in the various responsibilities. (“Jacob Rees-Mogg made Brexit opportunities minister as PM reshuffles team,” BBC, 08 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Poland: EU to hold back Warsaw-bound funds over Turow coal mine

On 08 February, the European Commission announced that EUR 15 million would be cut from Poland’s funding. The decision comes in the backdrop of Poland’s unpaid fines of EUR 500,000 a day, imposed by the Commission over the Turow coal mine dispute. Responding to the announcement, Poland’s government spokesperson said that the country would appeal against the decision. Although the Czech Republic and Poland signed a dispute-ending agreement recently, the fines to be paid remain. (“Turow coal mine: EU to withhold Poland funds over dispute,” Deutsche Welle, 08 February 2022; Jennifer Rankin, “EU to withhold funds from Poland over unpaid fine,” The Guardian, 08 February 2022) 

Germany hosts trilateral meeting on resolving issue of Ukraine

On 08 February, a trilateral meeting was hosted by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz between the French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Berlin. The meeting was held to over the building tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The leaders called Russia for a de-escalation at the border and urged for a diplomatic dialogue taking the European security into concern. Scholz said: "Our common goal is to avoid a war in Europe.” Duda said: “We have to find a solution to avoid war, in my opinion what's most important today is unity and solidarity.” Macron said: “We must together find ways and means to engage in a demanding dialogue with Russia.” (“Ukraine crisis: 'Our goal is to avoid a war in Europe,' says Germany's Scholz,” Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2022)

Ukraine: Germany’s Baerbock visits conflict-ridden Donbas region

On 08 February, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her trip to Kyiv visited eastern Ukraine which is the conflict front line. Baerbock, who spent around 40 minutes in the region, was briefed by a Ukrainian general about the situation in Donbas. She commented on the "depressing" views in the region and said: "(it would be impossible) to solve this aggression from the Russian side militarily, so I am doing everything I can to make sure that we move forward step by step at the negotiating table." Baerbock is also scheduled to meet with representatives from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (“Germany′s foreign minister visits front line in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 08 February 2022) 

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

EU plans to reduce chip shortage with EUR 43 billion 

On 08 February, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a EUR 43 billion plan to reduce the bloc’s dependency on Asian chip makers. The announcement comes amidst the global supply chain crisis. Von der Leyen stated: “Chips are at the centre of the global technological race. They are, of course, also the bedrock of our modern economies… The pandemic has also painfully exposed the vulnerability of its supply chains. We have seen that whole production lines came to a standstill. While the demand was increasing, we could not deliver as needed because of the lack of chips.” However, the plan is yet to be approved by the EU parliament and member states. (Martin Farrer, “EU hopes €43bn plan will fix chip shortages as supply chain crisis bites,” The Guardian, 09 February 2022)


08 February 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #119

Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday: 50 years later

Maastricht Treaty turns 30; Eastern flank of NATO receives troops; Macron visits Putin; Baerbock second visit to Ukraine

Photo : REUTERS/John Sibley


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday: 50 years later

On 30 January, Northern Ireland commemorated the 50th anniversary of the Bloody Sunday massacre. Termed by BBC as one of the “darkest days of the Northern Ireland Troubles,” it is also considered one of the worst conflicts to have occurred between Northern Ireland's Catholic nationalists and the British-loyal Protestant unionists. While the former wanted a united Ireland, the latter did not. Also called the “Bogside Massacre,” the massacre eventually led to the instalment of the Bloody Sunday Monument at the site where the incident happened. 

The Bloody Sunday massacre: A background

On 30 January 1972, Sunday, a civil rights march was organized by the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association. It was in opposition to Catholic nationalists being detained without a trial. There was a ban on protests; nonetheless, 15000 protesters took to the streets and marched towards the city centre from the Creggan area of Londonderry (Derry). As army barricades blocked the marchers, many of them were redirected. Meanwhile, youths began pelting stones at the barricade, forcing the troops to engage. Following a minor skirmish, 13 people were killed while 15 were injured due to the soldiers open-firing. 

The incident caused a huge uproar in Derry with the British Embassy in Dublin being set on fire by an aggravated crowd. The very next day, an inquiry was declared, termed the Widgery Tribunal as it was led by Lord Widgery, to probe into the issue. The inquiry depended on the soldiers’ account who maintained that they aimed elsewhere and not at the protestors; the victims’ families, however, refuse this account. 

The Bloody Sunday led to increased recruitment to the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA), which fought against terror in Northern Ireland. Eventually, these developments led to the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. During the same year, a second inquiry headed by Lord Saville began on the Bloody Sunday massacre. 

Finally, in 2010, the inquiry concluded that the killings were “unjustified and unjustifiable”. The UK government apologized for the loss of lives and the administration’s denial of their responsibility.  

Remembering 30 January 1972

Since 1972, there have been yearly memorial services commemorating the lives lost during the incident. This year’s service saw families of the victims retracing the path of the 1972 civil rights march through the Derry. It was also characterized by crowds lining up the streets, supporting these families as they walked to the Bloody Sunday Monument. Children tagged along holding white roses and portraits of the victims. 

For the first time ever, an Irish premier, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, participated in the memorial service. After a private meeting with the victims’ relatives, Martin assured: “I believe that the full process and justice of the courts should be deployed… It is important because time is moving on too for many, many families, and families need closure." However, the families of the victims remain infuriated by the fact that no one was held accountable or convicted for the murders. 

Meanwhile, the massacre also influenced culture. Musicians U2, Bono and The Edge released a song on the day called “Sunday Bloody Sunday,” which later on became quite popular. On the anniversary, an acoustic version of the same was released. The commemoration also witnessed an actor from a TV drama hosting a music and poetry performance which, according to Deutsche Welle, “involved the choral rendition of the US civil rights anthem "We Shall Overcome".”

On 29 January, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated in Parliament that the massacre was "one of the darkest days in our history" and called on the country to learn from its past. It is as Fintan O’Toole, a columnist from The Irish Times, states: “Bloody Sunday, the 10-minute massacre that lasted decades.”

References:

Northern Ireland marks 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday massacre,” Euronews, 31 January 2022.

Northern Ireland marks 50 years since Bloody Sunday,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2022.

Bloody Sunday: What happened on Sunday 30 January 1972?,” BBC, 27 January 2022.

Fintan O’Toole, “Fintan O'Toole: Bloody Sunday, the 10-minute massacre that lasted decades,” The Irish Times, 22 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

GERMANY

Annalena Baerbock visits Ukraine again

On 07 February, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock travelled to Ukraine as tensions rose at the Ukrainian border. In the press conference, Baerbock said that Germany was in favour of paying a high economic price if sanctions were to be imposed on Russia. The visit highlighted the talks on arms exports and Germany’s intent to levy sanctions on Russia, but only upon invasion. Germany has been constantly refusing the supply of weapons to Ukraine as it fears escalations of conflict. (“Baerbock: Germany 'ready to pay high economic price' for Ukraine peace,” Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2022)

GREECE

Agricultural Minister resigns over controversial comments

On 08 February, Greece's Agricultural Minister Spilios Livanos resigned after making unacceptable comments on compensation for natural disasters. Livanos admitted his mistake and offered to resign, according to a government statement. Euronews reported: "Footage appeared to show minister Spilios Livanos laughing after a local party official suggested that compensation payments for natural disasters could help win votes." The Greek conservative government was called out for its inaction to prepare for the heavy snowfall that had disrupted power and left motorists stranded on the roads for several hours. ("'Unacceptable comments': Greek minister dismissed over natural disaster compensation remarks," Euronews, 07 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Maastricht Treaty turns 30

On 07 February, the Maastricht Treaty, also known as the Treaty on European Union, turned 30. The treaty was signed in Maastricht on 07 February 1992, which led to a significant step in European integration. The treaty states: "This Treaty marks a new stage in the process of creating an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe, in which decisions are taken as closely as possible to the citizen." The treaty emerged at a crucial point in history, as reported by Euronews: "the Berlin Wall had fallen, the Soviet Union had collapsed and liberal democracy had reached its peak of popularity." 30 years since the treaty was signed has brought light on the current challenges in Europe and the future of European integration. ("Maastricht Treaty at 30: Pandemic brings unanswered questions back to the fore," Euronews, 07 February 2022)

The Eastern flank of NATO receives troops from Germany and the UK

On 07 February, Germany and the UK announced to send additional troops to reinforce NATO battle groups in Eastern Europe. German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said: "The Bundeswehr is sending 350 additional soldiers to the battle group in Lithuania." She further commented: "We are thus strengthening our contribution in terms of forces on NATO's eastern flank and sending a clear signal of determination to our allies." The UK also sent a contingent of 350 soldiers to the battle group in Poland. The UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace said: "showing that we can work together and sending a strong signal that Britain and Poland stand side by side."("Ukraine crisis: Germany and UK send hundreds of extra soldiers to NATO's eastern flank," Euronews, 07 February 2022)

NATO aims to position military longer in Eastern Europe

On 07 February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg disclosed the plans of NATO, which is looking to position its military on a longer term in the eastern Europe to keep up the defense. According to him: “We are considering more longer-term adjustments to our posture, our presence in the eastern part of the alliance. No final decision has been made on that but there is a process now going on within NATO.” Recently, NATO defence ministers who will be meeting soon to converse on the reinforcements on 16 to 17 February. The western powers have pressured Russia to remove the troops from Ukraine. (“NATO mulls longer-term military posture in eastern Europe, Stoltenberg says,”) Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2022

INTERNATIONAL

French President Macron visits Moscow

On 07 February, French President Emmanuel Macron met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss tensions over Ukraine. Macron initiated the meeting, saying: "This discussion can make a start in the direction in which we need to go, which is toward a de-escalation." He further mentioned how Putin had assured him of continuing engagement diplomatically and indicated a desire to maintain the stability and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Putin commented: "A number of his ideas, proposals, which are probably still too early to talk about, I think it is quite possible to make the basis of our further joint steps." Putin also mentioned that he would call and speak to Macron after the latter visits Ukraine. ("Putin says some of Macron's ideas could form basis to move forward," Reuters, 08 February 2022; "Ukraine crisis: Putin says Macron made 'realistic' proposals," Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2022)

Biden warns to bring the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to end if Russia invades

On 07 February, US President Joe Biden warned that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project will not advance if Russia launched an invasion. The warning comes after the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his first visit to the US. When it comes to the pipeline, both the US and Germany have been in disagreement. Biden said: “There will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it. I promise you we'll be able to do that.” According to Scholz: “ We will take all necessary steps. You can be sure there won't be any measures on which we have a differing approach. We will act together jointly.” (“Biden promises no Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2022)

Separatists group leader warns of a full-scale war

On 07 February, the head of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin said that his forces will turn in support in case of full-scale war that might break out. The separatists group has been backed by Russia, but the leader indicated that in terms of weaponry, air defences and drones, the group lacked at large. He said: “First of all we rely on ourselves, but we do not rule out that we will be forced to turn to Russia if Ukraine, with the support of Western countries, passes a certain line.” (Anton Zverev, “Separatist leader says full-scale war in east Ukraine could break out any time,” Reuters, 07 February 2022)


07 February 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #118

Northern Ireland: Challenges post the resignation of the First Minister

Queen Elizabeth II celebrates 70 years on throne; US troops arrive in Poland; Macon visits Putin; Polish government approves lithium mining plans; 

Photo : REUTERS/Jason Cairnduff


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

Northern Ireland: Challenges post the resignation of the First Minister

On 03 February, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, Paul Givan resigned. He belongs to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), and was against the trade protocol signed during Brexit. The resignation comes opposing the EU checks in the Irish Sea on the goods transported from the UK. He said: “They have been impacted by the agreement made by the United Kingdom government and the European Union, which created the Northern Ireland Protocol.”

Explaining the issue:

The situation arose due to the party’s Agricultural Minister stopping the inspection of goods coming from the UK, which were subject to checking as per the Protocol. The DUP have been against the Northern Ireland protocol since the time it was signed, as it views the protocol to be compromising its position. It is because of the protocol, the DUP has to meet the rules of the EU in the border checkpoints.

Due to the power sharing system in Northern Ireland, the Deputy First Minister, Michelle O'Neill who belongs to the nationalist party Sinn Fein will by default have to give up her leadership. The leader of both parties called for elections to prevent political instability.

Three challenges: Domestic power sharing, Irish backstop, and people’s stance

First, the problem of power sharing. In Northern Ireland the First Minister must be from the Democratic unionist party [SCD2] and the Deputy First Minister from the nationalist party. This arrangement serves as the base to the political chaos in the region. In the upcoming elections this year, the polls indicate that the pro-Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein is asserted to take over DUP, hence threatening the DUP position as First Minister. On the other side, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has been constantly threatening to devolve the government over the Brexit Protocol and the leader has resigned now. Political stability cannot be achieved unless both parties come to an agreement.

Second, Ireland backstop or Northern Ireland Protocol. The problem between the UK and the EU is another challenge in establishing peace in the region. Former UK’s Prime Minister Teresa May’s proposal of Ireland backstop aimed at avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland but at the cost of the UK coming under EU’s customs territory. Until an open border is achieved, the UK will not be able to vary its tariff rates and will have to follow the single market regulation even after Brexit. The backstop triggered debate and arguments. With a change of leader, current Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed the Northern Ireland Protocol. Under the Protocol both the UK and the EU agreed to keep the UK outside the economic bounds of the EU, instead to have checkpoints on goods that entered from the UK. The agreement brought peace only to the powers outside (the UK and the EU), but the agreement was not accepted by the DUP and they continue to threaten the internal peace of the region.

Third, the people's stance. In terms of economy and standard of life, the Ireland backstop allowed the people of Northern Ireland to connect for trade, job opportunities with the rest of Ireland, the UK and the EU market. With the backstop not approved and replaced with the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2019, angered the people. In terms of governance, the domestic scenario has only worsened due to bad governance under the devolved government. It is because the relations between the DUP and the UK have been strained since the 2019 Protocol, the handling of the domestic issues is found to be biased with regard to the sectarian killings and divide which still persists in the region at various levels. The UK has also failed to look into human welfare. Under the Good Friday Agreement 1998, a provision was given where the constitutional status of Northern Ireland can change with the future polls from the people. Hence, with the living conditions worsening for the people of Ireland, a protest is highly expected to call for polls for a united Ireland.

References:

Northern Ireland first minister resigns over post-Brexit trade rules,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2022

Lisa O'Carroll, “Northern Ireland first minister resigns over Brexit checks on goods,” The Guardian  03 February 2022

Brexit: UK gives EU ultimatum over Northern Ireland protocol,” Deutsche Welle, 04 October 2021

Irish backstop,” Institute for Government, 24 February 2020

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

PORTUGAL

Government approves lithium mining plans

On 05 February, the Portuguese government announced the approval of lithium mining plans in the country. But, the plans were met with discontentment from the municipality of Pinhel. Mayor of Fundão Paulo Fernades said: "It will never be possible, I would say, for the municipalities, but also for the administration and even for the government, that mining will take place in what is one of the main assets of agricultural production where there is such large investment." Portugal has around 60,000 tons of known lithium reserves. The company Savannah Resources said that, just the mine in Covas do Barroso could generate €1.3 billion and boost the country's economy. (Rebekah Daunt, "Portugal's government approves lithium mining despite growing concerns," Euronews, 05 February 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Queen Elizabeth II celebrates 70 years as monarch

On 06 February, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated the platinum jubilee of her being the monarch of the UK. The 95-year-old Queen came to power at 25 years on 06 February 1952. She is the first British monarch to remain in power for this long. On the eve of her platinum jubilee, the monarch announced that the Duchess of Cornwall Camilla would be called “Queen Consort,” when her husband and heir-to-the-throne Prince Charles became king. This cleared up many doubts regarding the royal household’s consideration of Camilla, who was long vilified for her role in breaking up Prince Charles’ marriage with Princess Diana. The primary platinum jubilee celebrations will coincide with her coronation anniversary and are scheduled for early June 2022. (“Elizabeth II marks Platinum Jubilee with 'Queen Camilla' announcement,” France24, 06 February 2022; “Britain: Prince Charles′ wife set to become ′Queen Camilla′,” Deutsche Welle, 06 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Former Defense Chief alleges Russian troop buildup sufficient for invasion

On 06 February, former Ukrainian Defense Chief Andriy Zagorodnyuk stated that Russia had amassed enough troops along the border to capture either Kyiv or any other city. During his interview with The Guardian, Zagorodnyuk said: “Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine. But we still don’t see the 200,000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion.” Estimates place the Russian troops along Ukraine’s borders to be 135,000. (Luke Harding and Richard Luscombe, “Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief,” The Guardian, 06 February 2022) 

Protestors condemn migrant deaths on the Greek-Turkey border

On 05 February, people in Istanbul took to the streets outside the Greek consulate to protest the deaths of migrants near the Greek-Turkish border. The demonstrations were organized by Turkish humanitarian groups and saw about 300 people holding up banners that said: "Close borders to racism, open to humanity." As reported by Euronews: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pledged to raise the alleged ill-treatment of migrants by Greece during his meetings with world leaders." Greece's Migration minister Notis Mitarachi said the death of the migrants was tragic but denied the claim that Greek forces had pushed back the migrants from the border. ("'Left to die': Protesters in Istanbul condemn migrant deaths near border with Greece," Euronews, 05 February 2022)

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Austria: Hundreds of avalanches cause nine deaths

On 07 February, The Guardian reported nine fatalities to have occurred due to more than 100 avalanches hitting the Western Tyrol region of Austria. The avalanches were caused due to the heavy snowfall being followed by warm weather leading to dangerous conditions. Although the pandemic helped reduced the number of deaths caused due to avalanches, Austria has witnessed deaths of around 20 individuals every year in recent years. (“Nine killed in three days after more than 100 avalanches hit Austria,” The Guardian, 07 February 2022) 

France: Investigation declared over images of thousands of floating dead fish 

On 05 February, Deutsche Welle reported a probe to have been declared by France and the EU following the photographs of thousands of dead fish floating in the Bay of Biscay emerged on Twitter. The images were uploaded by an environmental group called Sea Shepherd. The photographs garnered immense shock with French Maritime Minister Annick Girardin calling on the National Center for Fishing Surveillance to investigate the incident. The Pelagic Freezer-Trawler Association released a statement on 04 February stating that a tear in the trawler nets had caused the “involuntary release” of the fish into the sea. However, Sea Shepherd maintained that it was an attempt at discharging bycatch. Meanwhile, EU's Commissioner for the Environment, Oceans and Fisheries Virginijus Sinkevicius said: “We are launching an inquiry to national authorities of the fishing area and presumed flag state of the vessel, to get exhaustive information and evidence about the case.” (“France: Probe ordered after photos of masses of dead fish emerge,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

President Macron visits his Russian counterpart in Moscow 

On 07 February, French President Emmanuel Macron met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow to try and de-escalate its tensions with Ukraine. Reuters reported: "He will follow up on Tuesday with a visit to Kyiv, staking a lot of political capital on a mission that could prove embarrassing if he returns empty-handed." France's Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is also set to travel with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock to Kyiv on 07 February to reaffirm the EU’s solidarity with Ukraine. Macron said he wanted to hold a joint press conference with the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by the end of January so that no one should ever "give up the dialogue with Russia." (Barbara Wesel, "Emmanuel Macron heads to Russia on mission to de-escalate," Deutsche Welle, 07 February 2022; Michel Rose, "France's Macron flies to Moscow in high-risk diplomatic mission," Reuters, 04 February 2022)

US troops arrive in Poland

On 05 February, the first set of 1,700-unit-strong US troop contingent arrived in Poland. The deployment comes as US President Joe Biden promised to send military support to Europe. Also, Russia sent two long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Belarus and called it a practice interaction with the Belarusian air force. Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin before the Beijing Olympics opening and reaffirmed his backing over Putin's standoff with the West. ("Ukraine crisis: First US troops land in Poland as Xi backs Putin," Euronews, 06 February 2022)


05 February 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #117

Germany’s hike in inflation rate: What does it mean for the Eurozone?

Iceland to ban whale hunting by 2024; Deutsche Welle to shutdown its Moscow office; Austrian COVID-19 mandate enforced

Photo : REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

Germany’s hike in inflation rate: What does it mean for the Eurozone?

On 06 January, the German Federal Statistical Office released preliminary data, Germany’s inflation rate was reported to be standing at 5.3 per cent, which will be the second time since the rate crossed the five per cent mark since the reunification.

On the same day, it also disclosed the 3.1 per cent increase in consumer prices in Germany for 2021, which marked the highest inflation rate since 1993. 

On 03 February, the tighter restrictions to control the spread of the Omicron variant in January had an immediate effect on the service industry, impacting the economic growth of the Eurozone.

Driving factors of high inflation rates

First, rising energy prices. Once the pandemic restrictions were lifted in 2021, the demand for fuel and gas increased. OPEC instead of meeting the rising demand, restricted the full supply; it opted for a step-by-step increase to meet the fuel demands. As a result, the price of the limited supplies grew high.

Second, reduction of VAT and end of a temporary VAT cut. The VAT rate applies for two-thirds of the goods under the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). All energy-related, industrial, services, food, and drink come under HICP. With the reduction in VAT by 15 per cent the HICP inflation rate was expected to decrease by 1.8 per cent, but as per the recent data, the reduction in the inflation rate was lower than expected. The prices of food, non-energy industrial goods, and services fell only by a small margin. It was due to recovery methods opted by the industries over the losses incurred in the pandemic. With the VAT rate back to 19 per cent it is the end of the temporary VAT cut from 2021. The inflation will only push further above one per cent leading to 2.5 per cent increase by mid-year. 

Third, choking the supply chain. The entire globe suffered as the supply chains stalled due to pandemic. Ships that were supposed to deliver manufactured, seasonal, and promotional goods never reached their destination due to constant lockdowns. As a result, the freight charges soared high, affecting supermarkets and the car industry. With a surge in the demands and shortage of supply, consumer prices increased. The chokepoints in the supply chain have specifically affected Germany mainly due to its nature, which is an “open and trade-integrated economy.”

Fourth, the other factors include the fall in mineral oil product prices, the introduction of CO2 pricing, and crisis-linked effects. 

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has recommended the country to be directly involved in increasing the real income of the poorer segment of people rather than engaging in VAT reduction strategies.

What does it mean for the Eurozone?

First, the inflation rates in Germany are expected to decrease by the second half of 2022. Still, the inflation in the Eurozone is bound to persist longer than in Germany, especially with the increase in energy rates. Although the European Central Bank ECB aims to keep the rate at two per cent, with the January lockdowns and shutdown of various services and industries, it might lead to hyperinflation.

Second, purchasing power will drastically reduce due to rising consumer prices, and people would choose between essential products to unaffordability. Due to this the consumers will become selective in spending their income on certain goods 

Third, improved State response. Recently, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban addressed the inflation in consumer prices and used a national cap to level the prices of sugar, food, and dietary products. Another way, as suggested by economists, is to increase the income of those in need through welfare assistance, which can balance inflation. 

Fourth, unequal recovery path. While Germany is going through a slowdown in economic recovery. Other countries in the Eurozone, such as France, Spain, and Italy, show a faster recovery. The difference is due to revenue from the tourism industry, less dependency on industrial exports and highest vaccination rates.

A short explanation on Inflation, Eurozone and HICP

Inflation - Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time.

Eurozone - Member States who have taken a step by replacing their national currencies with the single currency – the euro, form the euro area. Denmark and Sweden are yet to be part.

HICP - The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is used to measure consumer price inflation internationally. That means the change over time in the prices of consumer goods and services purchased by euro area households.

Inflation target- The inflation target is defined as a medium-term average rather than as a rate (or band of rates) that must be held at all times. The inflation target is also, necessarily, forward-looking. This approach allows a role for monetary policy in dampening the fluctuations in output over the course of the cycle.

References:

Martin Arnold, “How Germany went from Europe’s economic locomotive to its laggard,” Financial Times, 27 January 2022

Aline Schuiling, “Global Daily – Impact of German VAT unwind on inflation,” ABN-AMRO, 07 January 2022

Michael Nienaber and Klaus Lauer, “German inflation eases in December for the first time in six months,” Reuters, 06 January 2022

Germany: Annual inflation hits highest rate since 1993,” Deutsche Welle, 06 January 2022

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

ICELAND

Ban on whale hunting by 2024

On 04 February, Iceland announced to ban whale hunting within two years. Minister of Fisheries and Agriculture Svandis Svavarsdottir said: "Why should Iceland take the risk of keeping up whaling, which has not brought any economic gain, in order to sell a product for which there is hardly any demand?" There has been a drop in demand as Iceland's primary buyer of whale meat Japan had resumed commercial whaling in 2019. Other factors have also impacted the industry, such as social distancing rules in meat production facilities and the extension of a no-fishing coastal zone, which have shot up the price of whale hunting. ("Iceland whaling: Fisheries minister signals end from 2024," BBC, 04 February 2022)

MONTENEGRO

Government ousted via a no-confidence motion

On 04 February, the parliament of Montenegro approved a no-confidence motion toppling the government. Led by Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic, the vote ended with 43 in favour of the motion while 11 voted against it. The conservative pro-Serbian government which came into power in 2020, had only been in power for 14 months. Krivokapic has been blamed for mismanaging the pandemic, creating an economic slowdown and delaying the integration process. Opposition leaders commented on the ousting: “This is not the day to be triumphant. We have serious work ahead to bring Montenegro out of a crisis.” Montenegro’s President Milo Djukanovic is expected to nominate a prime minister-designate soon. (“Montenegro′s government toppled in no-confidence vote,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Former Chancellor Merkel’s Security Advisor calls for increased weapons provision to Kyiv

On 04 February, Reuters reported former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Security Advisor Christoph Heusgen to have called on the country to increase its support for Ukraine. The future Chief of the Munich Security Conference, set to assume the post by 18 to 20 February, further stated that history could no longer be used as an excuse. Heusgen said: "We make it too easy on ourselves, to say we have always done it that way so we continue… We have to have a debate about a more active German role in foreign policy, and security policy and (arms exports policy) is part of it." (“Germany should send Ukraine weapons, says Munich Security Conference chief-designate,” Reuters, 05 February 2022) 

Russia: Deutsche Welle to shut down its operations in Moscow

On 04 February, Moscow announced the closure of Deutsche Welle's Moscow office, withdrew its press accreditations and channel broadcasting in Russia. The steps taken were in retaliation for Berlin's ban of the Russian broadcaster RT News in Germany. DW's Russian service in Germany Irina Filatova said: "We clearly expected some measures after RT was banned in Germany. But we never expected that these retaliatory measures by the Russian authorities would be so hard." Filatova further said: "The state of press freedom in Russia has drastically deteriorated over the last years. There's been a huge clampdown by Russian authorities on independent media." Her comments come as the Russian foreign authorities said they were considering placing DW on the list of foreign agents. (Farah Bahgat, "DW's Moscow bureau closes after Russian ban," Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2022; "German anger as Russia shuts international broadcaster Deutsche Welle," BBC, 04 February 2022)

COVID-19

Austria: Vaccine mandate comes into force

On 04 February, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen ratified the legislation on the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.  It will come into force on 05 February; however, the implementation of the mandate will occur in phases. Those refusing the inoculation will be fined up to EUR 3,600. Austria is the first EU country to make vaccinations mandatory. (Philip Oltermann, “Austria passes Covid vaccine mandate, but question marks linger over enforcement,” The Guardian, 04 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Russia: Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping

On 04 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the inaugural day of the Winter Olympics. President Xi also extended the country's support to Russia over the Ukraine standoff, simultaneously declaring a "no limits" partnership. A joint statement released read: "Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation." Meanwhile, the two countries signed a new gas deal worth USD 117.5 billion, which would grow Russia's Far East exports. The statement also called on the West to" abandon the ideologised approaches of the Cold War". This is the 38th time the two leaders are meeting since 2013. (Andrew Roth and Vincent Ni, “Xi and Putin urge Nato to rule out expansion as Ukraine tensions rise,” The Guardian, 04 February 2022;  Tony Munroe, Andrew Osborn and Humeyra Pamuk, “China, Russia partner up against West at Olympics summit,” Reuters, 05 February 2022) 

Trawler incident leads to a bank of dead fish off the coast near France

On 04 February, a Dutch-owned trawler FV Margiris released over 100,000 dead fish into the Atlantic Ocean near France, this shedding of fish formed a floating carpet of carcasses. Pelagic Freezer trawler Association, which represents the vessel, claimed that a rupture in the trawler's net had caused the spill. Sea Shepherd, France's environmental organization, said the incident was not an accident but an intentional discharge of fish it did not want to process. This process of unwanted fish is called discharging bycatch which is banned under EU fishing rules. France's Maritime Minister Annick Girardin has asked the country's national fishing surveillance authority to launch an investigation into the accident. (Tassilo Hummel, "Floating carpet of dead fish found off French coast after trawler incident," Reuters, 04 February 2022; "Huge bank of dead fish spotted off French Atlantic coast," BBC, 04 February 2022)

Poland receives US military equipment 

On 04 February, Poland said it received US military equipment to reinforce NATO's eastern flank. Poland's Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said: "This is a clear signal of allied solidarity." His comments come after photos of soldiers unloading equipment from a C-130 Hercules transport plane surfaced on Twitter. The US had earlier also announced the deployment of nearly 3,000 American troops in eastern Europe amidst the standoff with Russia. (Alicja Ptak, "Poland receives US army equipment in effort to bolster eastern flank against Russia," Reuters, 04 February 2022


04 February 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #116

Lithuania and China: Four reasons, why Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel

Poland and the Czech Republic sign deal over Turow mine; Polish President propose to shut down the Supreme Court’s disciplinary chamber; NATO Secretary General to lead Norway’s Central Bank 

Photo : REUTERS/Ints Kalnins


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Lithuania and China: Four reasons, why Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel

On 21 March 2021, Lithuania withdrew from the China-CEEC 17+1 group. It felt the grouping undermined the EU's role in the region. The withdrawal was partially driven by China's countermeasures over the bloc's accusations against Beijing's Xinjiang policy. 

According to China's Ministry of Commerce, China-Lithuania trade was USD 1.35 billion in 2019, placing China in 22 places for the export market and 10 places for sourcing imports. The Global Times reported: "The withdrawal of countries like Lithuania could also be the opportunity to improve China-CEEC cooperation mechanism, according to Chinese experts." Back then, Beijing felt a small country like Lithuania withdrawing from the cooperation would have little to no impact on China's influence in the region. Yet, one sees a wave of anti-China positions across Europe in countries like Slovenia, Germany, France.  Even across the globe – one could see a similar sentiment in the US, UK and Australia after its diplomatic debacle with Lithuania. 

Four reasons, why Lithuania has become China’s Achilles heal

First, the EU launched an official dispute with China on behalf of Lithuania with the World Trade Organisation(WTO). The arbitration would have significant implications that can be seen in terms of economic and diplomatic contentions. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said: "We also remind the EU to distinguish right from wrong and be alert of Lithuania's attempt to kidnap China-EU relations." He further denied the allegations on the violations of WTO norms and clearly stated these issues were more political than economic. China warned the EU not to escalate the bilateral dispute with Kyiv because Beijing said it only practiced business preference on Lithuanian supplies. 

Second, a revival of EU's anti-coercion instrument. EU's anti-coercion instrument has not been enacted yet and it will not be implemented until an agreement is reached. The Lithuania-China issue is a prime example of how the EU can hold a larger country accountable for clamping down on smaller countries within the EU to safeguard their interests. Furthermore, China's weaponization of European value chains could lead to the EU and regional countries stepping up their Indo-Pacific strategy to secure their economic interests. 

Third, a shift in the EU's foreign policy of strategic economy. The recent tensions would affect the EU's push for a strategic economy, as it depended on closer economic ties with China. China was initially seen as a critical player for shifting its traditional dependence from the US. The EU had also hoped to play a crucial role between the US and China to bridge relations between the two countries in the case of diplomatic tensions. Under President Macron's EU Presidency, France had supported the idea of pushing for a strategic economy. Yet, with the recent debacle and the French Parliament's judgment on China's treatment of Uyghurs as genocide, it would make Paris reconsider its stand. 

Fourth, Europe versus China has taken a global turn with the EU approaching the WTO. Australia has requested to join the consultations regarding the trade dispute between the EU and China. Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan said: "Australia has a substantial interest in the issues raised in the dispute brought by the European Union against China ... and will request to join these consultations." As Australia and China had their contentions in 2018 when Canberra banned Huawei, Canberra recently filed two cases with the WTO regarding China's import duties. 

On 26 January, the US House of Representatives passed the America Competes Act of 2022, which approved Washington to rename its Taiwan embassy. The bill also authorizes the change from Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to Taiwan Representative Office in the United States. The act cleared the speculations reported by Global Times on 22 January, which suggested that the US diplomats had pressured Lithuania to consider changing the name of the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius. 

References: 

"Australia seeks to join WTO talks on China-EU trade row," Reuters, 29 January 2022.

"China urges EU not to be 'kidnapped' by Lithuania after Brussels' lawsuit threat," Global Times, 27 January 2022. 

Jacob Fromer and Owen Churchill, "US House finalises bill to confront China, including provisions on semiconductors and Taiwan ties," South China Morning Post, 26 January 2022.

Zhang Tengjun, "Lithuania needs much more than removing 'Taiwan' from office name to mend ties with China," Global Times, 22 January 2022.

Chen Qingqing and Yang Kunyi, "Lithuania's decision to quit China-CEEC 17+1 won't change fundamentals of platform," Global Times, 23 May 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

POLAND

Warsaw: President Duda to propose bill closing down Supreme Court disciplinary chamber

On 03 February, Polish President Andrzej Duda proposed to submit a bill that would shut down the Supreme Court’s disciplinary chamber. The move was an effort to end the clash with the EU. Duda said: “I propose that this chamber be abolished… I want to give the Polish government an instrument to end the dispute with the European Commission.” Critics condemned the proposal, claiming that it was just “bogus rebranding”. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) had imposed a fine of EUR 1 million per day for the lack of Polish action regarding the chamber. (“Poland: President seeks closure of court body to end EU row,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2022) 

NORTHERN IRELAND

Northern Ireland First Minister resigns over objection on Brexit protocol

On 03 January, Northern Ireland First Minister, Paul Givan belonging to the Democratic Unionist Party submitted his resignation objecting to the Brexit checks in the Irish Sea. Previously when the Agricultural Minister blocked the inspection of goods that were delivered from the UK. The move angered the EU, as it violates the Brexit agreement. According to the First Minister, “They have been impacted by the agreement made by the United Kingdom government and the European Union, which created the Northern Ireland Protocol.” Due to the complex system of power sharing in Northern Ireland, the Deputy First Minister from the Nationalist Party Sinn Fein by default loses the power. The leader of both parties have called for snap elections to avoid political chaos.(“Northern Ireland first minister resigns over post-Brexit trade rules,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2022)

NORWAY

NATO Secretary General to become the next Central Bank Governor of Norway

On 03 January, the Norwegian government announced that Jens Stoltenberg, currently the Secretary General of the NATO , will be positioned as the Central Bank Governor after his tenure ends. Stoltenberg said: “I am grateful for the trust and am looking forward to taking on the job.” The Finance Minister welcomed the decision and praised his knowledge, background and the management experience which would suit the best for the position. (“NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to lead Norway's central bank,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2022)

REGIONAL

Poland: Agreement signed with the Czech Republic over Turow mine

On 03 February, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the Czech Republic Prime Minister Petr Fiala met in Prague and signed an agreement regarding the Turow mine. The deal ends the long-drawn dispute over the lignite mine. According to Morawiecki, the agreement allows the smooth functioning of both the Turow open-pit mine and the nearby power plant. During the joint press conference, Fiala said: “This deal undoubtedly brings advantages and benefits and results to communities affected (by Turow).” The agreement also calls for the Czech Republic to withdraw its complaint made to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). However, the daily fines of EUR 500,000 imposed on Poland by the European Commission are expected to continue until the official withdrawal. (“Polish, Czech governments sign deal on contested mine,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2022) 

MIGRATION

France: Schengen Council created to address migration concerns 

On 03 February, the interior ministers of the Schengen zone met at Lille in France to discuss the creation of a Schengen Council. Termed by Deutsche Welle as the “crisis council,” it is expected to deliberate on the “questions of border and migration”. According to French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, the Schengen Council’s first meeting has been scheduled for 03 March. The decision comes in the backdrop of France’s EU presidency and its aim to retrieve the Schengen zone’s borderless movement, thus, facilitating reforms to the processing of migrants. (“Europe: Schengen countries establish crisis council,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US intelligence claims Russia to substantiate invasion by potential “fake attack” 

On 03 February, the US revealed intelligence that stated the next Russian move over Ukraine would be the “fabrication of an invasion pretext”. The Pentagon spokesperson said: “As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations.” However, the US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer pointed out the uncertainty of the claim. (“US alleges Russian plot to fabricate Ukraine attack,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2022) 

 


03 February 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #115

The Minsk Protocol

Bodies of migrants found near Turkey-Greece border; US increases military presence in Europe; Boris Johnson's comments on Sue Gray's report;

Photo : REUTERS/Oleksandr Klymenko


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

The Minsk Protocol

What is the Minsk Protocol?

The Minsk Protocol, signed in 2014 and 2015, consists of two agreements – the Minsk I and Minsk II. Ratified in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, the protocol is a set of agreements created to end the conflict in the disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. The parties to the protocol include Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany along with representatives from the separatist regions and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Why did it come into being?

The two sets of Minsk agreements were a response to the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. It intended to bring an end to the separatist war in Donetsk and Luhansk – the larger Donbas region. The eastern region of Ukraine is largely industrial as it is pro-Russian; the area is occupied and de facto ruled by these proxy forces. The pro-Russian sentiment enabled the separatist war to be fought by these proxies; however, the Kremlin denies any connections to both the forces and the conflict.

Minsk I: The idea and its failure

The initial deal of the protocol, signed on 05 September 2014, involved a 12-point ceasefire agreement. The provisions mentioned in the agreement consisted of prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid deliveries, heavy weapons’ withdrawal combined with the continuation of arms control. An addition was the Kremlin demand to provide the Donbas region with an autonomous status along with the right of veto regarding Ukrainian foreign relations. However, this agreement had a very short life span. It failed within days of its ratification due to violations from both sides.

Minsk II: Another attempt

Signed in February 2015, the Minsk II signatories included the Trilateral Contact Group (includes representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE) along with two pro-Russian separatist regions’ leaders. The 16-hour talks participated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (the Normandy Four members) concluded with a 13-point agreement. 

The measures set out in the ceasefire agreement included a call for “an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire” along with the “withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides”. The OSCE would henceforth monitor and verify the implementation of the aforementioned conditions. An important part of the agreement was the provision to consider an “interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law,” which would acknowledge their special status.

How well is Minsk II faring?

Since 2014, the first progress was seen in 2019. There were two prisoner swaps along with the first Normandy Four summit since 2016. 

However, the success was limited; it had failed to achieve its aim of ending the separatist war in the Donbas region. Despite the multiple mentions of military and political steps to be undertaken via the agreement, most of them remain unexecuted. One of the primary issues the ceasefire agreement faces is with regard to Russian participation in the conflict. It maintains that it is not a party to the conflict and thus is not bound by the protocol. This is controversial since Ukraine repeatedly calls on the withdrawal of the Russian forces stationed in Donbas. 

Meanwhile, the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU economic sanctions remain in place until the agreements are complete enforced. However, criticism against the protocol also arises with scholars claiming the agreement favours Russia while putting Ukraine at a disadvantage.

References:

China weighs in on Ukraine and Russia in call with Blinken,” Deutsche Welle, 27 January 2022.

Factbox: What are the Minsk agreements on the Ukraine conflict?,” Reuters, 06 December 2021.

Naja Bentzen, “Factbox: What are the Minsk agreements on the Ukraine conflict?,” European Parliament Research Service, March 2020.

Ukraine ceasefire: New Minsk agreement key points,” BBC, 12 February 2015.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

GERMANY

Germany bans Russia Today channel over license violation

On 02 February, Germany’s media regulator announced the ban of the German-language TV channel known as Russia Today (RT) belonging to the Russian State broadcaster. The Commission for Authorization and Supervision released a statement: “The organization and distribution of the TV program via live stream on the internet, via the mobile and smart TV app 'RT News' and via satellite must be discontinued.” The officials have said that the RT did not hold the right licence to broadcast in Germany and has previously tried to run its operations through a Serbian broadcasting licence. The Russian Foreign Ministry has called the act unreasonable. (“Germany bans Russian broadcaster RT’s German-language channel,” Politico, 02 February 2022)

THE UK

Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots orders a halt of post-Brexit checks 

On 02 February, the Northern Irish Minister of Agriculture Edwin Poots ordered a halt of post-Brexit checks on agricultural food products into the region that came from the UK. He said the checks imposed had gravely affected the businesses in the UK and led to a surge in trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Poots said: "The advice concluded that I can direct the (Sanitary and phytosanitary) checks to cease in the absence of executive approval. I have now issued a formal instruction to halt all checks that were not in place on 31 December 2020 from midnight tonight." Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill called the decision a political stunt as the region has elections due in May 2020. Neill said it was: "an attempt by the DUP to unlawfully interfere with domestic, and international law." (Ian Graham, "N.Ireland minister orders halt to agri-food Brexit checks," Reuters, 02 February 2022; "Northern Irish minister orders end to post-Brexit controls," Euronews, 02 February 2022) 

Boris Johnson's comments on Sue Gray's report

On 02 January, Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the Parliament's weekly Prime Minister's question time (PMQs) said: "I will comply with the law." Johnson made those remarks as he was being questioned about the report by civil servant Sue Gray on the partygate scandals. But, as reported by Euronews: "But unlike in previous weeks, Partygate did not dominate the sitting of the house, with Labour leader Keir Starmer instead grilling Johnson about economic issues." Gray further said she found "failures of leadership and judgement" on Johnson’s part. The police are still investigating the other 12 parties that were held and were not covered by Gray’s report. ("'I will comply with the law': Boris Johnson faces MPs after Gray report," Euronews, 02 February 2022)

CLIMATE

Tata Steel to be investigated by Dutch over excessive pollution complaints

On 02 February, Dutch opened a criminal investigation on Tata Steel. It will examine the pollution levels of the huge steelworks, to see whether it was intentional and unlawful. In the statement released: “introduction of hazardous substances into the air, soil and surface water" by Tata's plant in the port town of Ijmuiden "could potentially place the public's health in danger.” In response, Tata has said that it will cooperate with the investigation. The reason behind the launch was due to complaints coming from 800 people living near the steel factory. (“Tata Steel hit by Dutch criminal probe,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2022)

European Commission labels nuclear energy and gas as green under Taxonomy plans

On 02 February, the European Commission labelled nuclear energy and gas as green energy after a controversial divide amongst the European member states. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has welcomed the European Green Deal. She said: “Europe's man on the moon moment, our European destiny.” Although critics raised concerns that the step can threaten the EU’s target in becoming a climate neutral region by 2050. Along with the critics, many environmental organizations are also not in favor of the Green Deal proposal. (“European Commission declares nuclear and gas to be green,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2022)

MIGRATION

12 bodies of migrants found near Turkey-Greece border

On 02 February, 12 bodies of refugees were found at the Turkish border near Ipsala. The refugees were believed to have frozen to death and have caused issues between Turkey and Greece. Turkey has accused Greece of deliberately pushing the refugees back, leading them to be victims of the harsh cold conditions. Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu accused the Greek border patrols, saying: "They behave like thugs." Greece's Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi responded: "These specific migrants never made it to the border. Any suggestion they did, or indeed were pushed back into Turkey, is utter nonsense." Greece also accused Turkey of not keeping the March 2016 agreement where Ankara was supposed to deter refugees trying to cross the border via its north-eastern land frontier with Turkey. (Helena Smith, "12 people found frozen to death near Turkey's border with Greece," The Guardian, 02 February 2022; "Twelve migrants found frozen to death near Greek border, Turkish authorities say," Euronews, 02 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

The US increases military presence in Europe

On 02 February, the US announced the redeployment of 1,000 troops along with an additional 2,000 troops to Poland, Germany, and Romania. The US has also reserved 8,500 soldiers on its mainland who are ready to be mobilized if NATO needs support. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko responded to the announcement saying: "... will only fuel military tensions and narrow the field for political decisions." This would lead to the total number of US troops deployed in Poland reaching 4,000. Meanwhile, NATO has 5,000 troops stationed in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania under their Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) units. NATO is scheduled to extend its EFP strategy to Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. ("US to bolster positions in Europe with additional 3,000 troops," Euronews, 02 February 2022; Phil Stewart, "US sending nearly 3,000 troops to Eastern Europe in coming days," Reuters, 02 February 2022)


02 February 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #114

The UK: Boris Johnson and the Partygate scandal

US deploy troops in Eastern Europe; Portugal authorities warn high tax on sustainable energies; Social Media firms file lawsuit against Germany

Photo : REUTERS/May James


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

The UK: Boris Johnson and the Partygate scandal

According to France24 and the BBC reports, about 10-16 parties were held by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, while the country faced lockdowns or restrictions. They spanned from 15 May 2020 to 16 April 2021 and had broken multiple laws that may have been subjected to fines or even arrests if it was for an ordinary individual. 

The one on 15 May 2020 showed Johnson at Downing Street garden with bottles of wine, surrounded by his staff and his wife. Johnson justified the gathering by saying it was a work-related event, but laws then were stringent, and one could not even leave their house without a strong reason. The other case was on 16 April 2021, when the UK was mourning the death of Prince Philip. At that time, the rules in London were eased, but socializing indoors with people from other households was strictly prohibited. However, during that time, two parties were being held at Downing street, the night before Prince Philip's funeral. But, the evidence noted that Johnson did not attend either of the two parties. 

Role of Sue Gray's report and Johnson's response 

Sue Gray is a senior civil servant who led the ethics team for six years, which adviced the government's divisions. She has been investigating the alleged COVID-19 laws broken at Downing Street. Her report was a compilation of factual accounts on the gatherings and the laws broken, which were to be presented to the Parliament. Even former officials at the Cabinet office praised her, saying: "Sue has been there for so long, she knows everything that anybody has ever done wrong."

Her investigation in 2017 had forced Senior Minister Damian Green to step down after her reports had found inaccurate statements over clams in the case. The recent report did find "failures of leadership and judgment." However, the report did not live up to its expectations as it provided little details about the 16 parties held. Additionally, there was a jurisdictional issue as 12 parties were not held in government buildings and are to be investigated by London's Metropolitan Police as a subject of a criminal investigation. 

Johnson responded to the report and its findings saying: “I get it, and I will fix it." He further promised to reorganize Downing Street and assured the Parliament, and said: "It's whether this government can be trusted to deliver. And I say, Mr. Speaker, yes, we can be trusted."

The Parliament's reaction 

Many members of the Parliament had reached a boiling point with the partygate scandals. MP Theresa May said people: "had a right to expect their prime minister to have read the rules, to understand the meaning of the rules" and "set an example." MP Aaron Bell also mentioned how at the same time, he had to attend his grandmother's funeral in May 2020 and due to the restrictions, he was not able to hug his siblings or parents at the funeral. He further said: "Does the prime minister think I'm a fool?" as he felt let down by the parties being held as many were mourning their losses. MP Angella Richardson was deeply disappointed by the wrongdoing of the PM and felt it had taken too long for Johnson to acknowledge his mistakes, so she decided to resign from her post in protest. The situation may favor Johnson for now, but once the police submits the report, there will be further investigations. 

References:

Aubrey Allegretti, "Tory MPs are frogs in boiling water amid Johnson's 'partygate' defence," The Guardian, 31 January 2022. 

Karla Adam and William Booth, "Downing Street gatherings during UK lockdowns' difficult to justify,' report finds," The Washington Post, 31 January 2022. 

Tom Edgington, "Downing Street parties: What Covid rules were broken?," BBC, 31 January 2022.

"Boris Johnson: 'Partygate' report finds serious failures of leadership," Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2022.

"UK 'partygate': A timeline of Boris Johnson's lockdown scandals," France24, 26 January 2022.

"Downing Street party: Who is Sue Gray and what is she investigating?," BBC, 13 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Putin responds to standoff, expresses “disappointment”

On 01 February,  Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Moscow. The first in-person meeting since the escalation between Putin and an EU leader saw the former commenting on the standoff for the first time since 23 December 2021. Putin expressed that the Kremlin’s demands were simply “ignored”. He accused the US of being more interested in “containing Russian development” than being concerned about Ukraine’s security. There was a call by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for governments to adhere to the 1999 agreement, the violation of which was the basis of the Ukraine crisis. Meanwhile, Orban ended the joint press conference stating the “substantial” differences could be bridged. (Natalia Zinets and Vladimir Soldatkin, “Putin says West has ′ignored′ Russia′s security concerns,” Reuters, 02 February 2022) 

CLIMATE

EU auditors warn high taxing of renewable energies over fossil fuels

On 31 January, external auditors of the EU reviewed the carbon pricing measures, energy taxation levels and energy subsidies and warned that the taxing of the energy resources are in contrast to the climate goals of the EU countries. The European Court of Auditors discovered that most polluting energy sources get the tax advantage compared to those working under carbon efficiency. The fossil fuels are being taxed less than the electricity which are produced at low-carbon sources. They also indicated that the subsidies to renewable energy have tripled from 2008 to 2019. (“EU auditor: Fossil fuels get more tax breaks than renewables,” Euronews, 31 January 2022)

Portugal closes down hydroelectric dams due to water scarcity

On 02 February, Portugal authorities temporarily disabled the supply of water to a few hydropower dams to save it for civilian purposes. According to the Portuguese Institute of Meteorology (IPMA), Portugal, which was facing drought at minimal level, had now deteriorated to extreme levels. So far, five hydroelectric dams in Portugal have been closed and irrigation has been stopped to ensure drinking water is available for at least next two years. The move has raised worries amongst the farmers as they fear the drought conditions might affect their crops and cattle. (“Portugal limits hydroelectric power amid unusual winter drought,” Euro News, 02 February 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Social media firms file suit against new laws by Germany

On 02 February, big social media companies Facebook (Meta), YouTube, Twitter and TikTok have come together to file suit against new rules in the Moderation law of Germany called NetzDG. The new rules aim to fasten the identification and prosecution of hate crimes after the far-right attacks in Halle. The tech companies have argued that this law will risk people’s privacy and rights. Recently, Germany has been in constant clash with the social media platforms, as the German politicians have been on the peak of online hatred and misinformation. Germany’s impasse with social media big firms also sends a signal to the EU which is reforming its Digital Services Act. (“Big Tech takes on Germany,” Politico, 02 February 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US troops to be deployed in eastern Europe

On 02 February, US President Joe Biden agreed to deploy troops in eastern Europe. While 2,000 soldiers are expected to be deployed to Poland and Germany, an additional 1,000 troops will be deployed from Germany to Romania. The Pentagon spokesperson said: “They are not permanent moves. They respond to current conditions.” The Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak appreciated the decision, stating: “Strengthening the US presence in Poland by 1,700 troops is a strong signal of solidarity in response to possible Russian aggression against Ukraine.” Eastern Europe already has 60,000 US troops deployed in the region. (“US to send more troops to Germany, Poland,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2022) 

Ukraine: US and UK consider further sanctions on Russia

On 31 January, the US declared that if Russia were to invade Ukraine, the imposition of sanctions on the former would include those close to President Vladimir Putin. The White House spokesperson elaborated: “The individuals we have identified are in or near the inner circles of the Kremlin and play a role in government decision making or are at a minimum complicit in the Kremlin's destabilizing behavior.” The UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss also warned of multiple deterrence measures being considered in the face of a Russian invasion. The Kremlin spokesperson responded to this: “It's not often you see or hear such direct threats to attack business," he said. "An attack by a given country on Russian business implies retaliatory measures, and these measures will be formulated based on our interests if necessary.” (“https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia-crisis-us-uk-threaten-sanctions-on-putins-friends/a-60615753,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2022)


01 February 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #113

Ukraine: Questions and responses over German ambiguity

Portugal's ruling socialist party wins elections; Ukraine-Russia tensions spill over at the UNSC; French Ambassador Meyer told to leave Mali; Boris Johnson visit to Ukraine

Photo : REUTERS/Michele Tantussi


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Ukraine: Questions and responses over German ambiguity

Germany’s stance on Ukraine and its recent actions or ‘inaction,’ has led to concerns being raised about the German leadership and the country’s ability to remain united with its allies – the US and NATO. Additionally, it has been dubbed as the “weakest link in the West” vis-a-vis the Ukraine conflict. 

What is Germany doing and why?

What are the questions?

First, the denial of weapons export. Germany is Europe’s largest arms exporter and the world’s fourth-largest; despite this, Berlin’s refusal of military assistance to Kyiv via weapons supply questions its “support”. 

Germany has a longstanding policy of not providing lethal weapons to conflict zones; although this has been breached in the past, they refuse to budge citing historical reasons referring to the Second World War. This is further backed by their motto of “never again”. Nonetheless, the Scholz-led government decided to supply Ukraine with 5,000 military helmets and fund a field hospital; however, blocking Estonia from exporting nine D-30 howitzers that required German authorization garnered substantial criticism.

Second, an incoherent Russian policy. Germany has not spelt out its action if there is a Russian invasion, unlike the US and NATO. The ambiguity surrounding potential sanctions on Russia concerns allies, as the Kremlin benefits the most from this. However, the Scholz administration claims the unclear policy is a strategy that ensures Russia faces difficulty while preparing for consequences – a reasoning as flawed as it is criticised. Meanwhile, Germany acting against Russia would adversely affect its own economy. Critics, acknowledging this, have accused Berlin of placing its own interests before those of European interests. The incoherence also puts the European and German credibility and reliability at stake.

Third, the Nord Stream 2 (NS2). The natural gas pipeline, by default rather than design, is a major tool of negotiation in the conflict as the US and NATO consider imposing sanctions on it to deter Russia. Although Scholz has reiterated the irrelevancy of NS2 to the Ukraine conflict given its “purely commercial nature,” the pipeline is equally important for Germany and Russia. German energy needs pose a vulnerability risk to Russian threats as it phases out coal, depending on Russian gas reserves. The US and other European countries have been constantly wary of the pipeline and its implied energy dependence. 

Fourth, internal differences within Germany. The escalation along Ukraine happens as Germany undergoes a transition from Merkel to Scholz. The seven-week-old government is being ruthlessly compared with the 16-year administration of Merkel. Worsening things, the Scholz-led coalition is rather fragile over the situation as the perspectives of the three constituent parties differ substantially over foreign policy.  

From Germany, what are the responses?

First, emphasis on diplomacy to de-escalation. Germans believe that diplomacy is the best solution for de-escalation, not weapons supplies. They realise that exporting weapons to Kyiv alone will not change the military imbalance but will only contribute to a crisis escalation. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock believes financial support is more worthwhile. 

Second, emphasis on being an unbiased mediator. Germany’s reiteration of this argument points to the Normandy format, where providing weapons to a party while mediating a diplomatic solution directs to a crisis escalation rather than de-escalation. 

Third, history. Germans are yet to get over the horrors of WWII; the possibility of more Russian soldiers dying by German weapons is appalling. Baerbock has said: “We have a duty to all countries of the former Soviet Union because of the terrible suffering we inflicted on millions of people there in the past.”

Fourth, economic reasons. Besides the energy sector, Germany has a substantial interest in economic ties with Russia. Being Europe’s largest exporter and biggest economy, the imposition of additional sanctions on Russia will negatively impact Germany, more than any other country. Thus, Germany has the most to lose.

References:

Philip Oltermann, “Ghosts of Germany's past rise as Olaf Scholz seeks strategy for Ukraine,” The Guardian, 30 January 2022.

Guy Chazan and Max Seddon, “Germany's Russia problem: Ukraine crisis tests new government,” Financial Times, 30 January 2022.

Jenny Hill, “Why Germany isn't sending weapons to Ukraine,” BBC, 29 January 2022.

Judy Dempsey, “Germany's Russia problem: Ukraine crisis tests new government,” Carnegie Europe, 27 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

IRELAND

Ireland government announces a scheme for migrants

On 31 January, Ireland government introduced a scheme for undocumented migrants and their family members to attain Irish citizenship. The justice department estimated that more than 17,000 people lived in Ireland without documentation. According to the Irish justice minister, it is a “once in a generation scheme, which will allow applicants to work and proceed towards their citizenship. The scheme is scheduled to end by 31 July. (“Ireland gives undocumented migrants path to citizenship,” BBC, 01 February 2022)

ITALY

Italian fashion brand announces to opt for eco-fur garments

On 31 January, Italian fashion brand Dolce & Gabbana released a statement along with the animal rights group, Humane Society International announcing the dropping out of animal fur from its collections. The production will henceforth use eco-fur garments and accessories. According to the company's communication and marketing officer: “"The entire fashion system has a significant social responsibility role that must be promoted and encouraged. Dolce & Gabbana is working toward a more sustainable future that can't contemplate the use of animal fur." (“Luxury fashion brand Dolce & Gabbana will stop using fur,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2022)

PORTUGAL

Socialist party wins an absolute majority

On 30 January, Portugal held snap general elections, and Portugal's ruling socialist party secured an absolute majority. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "The Socialists, led by Prime Minister Antonio Costa, received 42% of the vote, the electoral commission said after counting 95% of the ballots." Costa said: "An absolute majority doesn't mean absolute power. It doesn't mean to govern alone. It's an increased responsibility, and it means to govern with and for all Portuguese." Even though one-tenth of the country had been isolated, they were requested to go in the final hours of the poll to vote. ("Portugal's Socialists land parliamentary majority," Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Boris Johnson meet Ukraine President to discuss diplomatic options

On 01 February, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss viable diplomatic solutions to prevent direct conflict with Russia. Before Johnson arrived, the UK government declared GBP 88 million to Ukraine to endorse stable governance and to meet energy needs. Johnson said: “It is the right of every Ukrainian to determine how they are governed. As a friend and a democratic partner, the UK will continue to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of those who seek to destroy it.” On the same day, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss declared a new legislation to broaden the UK’s sanctions targeting a wider range of individuals and businesses connected to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. (“Boris Johnson visits Ukraine for talks as Russian invasion fears rise,” BBC, 01 January 2022; “Ukraine-Russia tensions: UK threatens tougher sanctions in event of aggression,” BBC, 31 January 2022)

Sue Gray report on the Boris Johnson Party scandal released

On 31 January, the Sue Gray report on the party gate scandal was published. As per the report, there were 16 events that were conducted in the May and April months in the Cabinet Office and there were three critiques. Starting from how the party events had failed to observe the standards laid by the government, how the gatherings are difficult to be proven against the pandemic restrictions and how the leadership has failed by allowing such events to take place. The Investigation into events have resulted in stifling chaos inside the party of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and few ministers are expected to resign in the coming days. (“Sue Gray party report: What are the findings?,” BBC, 31 January 2022)

COVID-19

Vienna to implement mandatory vaccination

On 01 February, Austria implemented the mandatory inoculation law for anyone above the age of 18. Austrian Minister for the EU and the Constitution Karoline Edtstadler said: "We as politicians, have the responsibility to be sure that the healthcare system is still working, that society, as a whole, can live normally." She also talked about the vaccination interfering with human rights and argued: "But in this case, this interference can be justified." Individuals who refused to get inoculated would face fines that would range from EUR 600 to EUR 3,600, with the exceptions of pregnant women and those who have serious health conditions. Far-right leader Herbert Kickl commented on the vaccine mandate and said it: "paves the way to totalitarianism in Austria." (Bethany Bell, "Austria's Covid vaccine law comes into force amid resistance," BBC, 01 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine-Russia tensions spill over at the UNSC 

On 31 January, The UNSC experienced a spillover of the tensions at the Ukrainian border as the countries accused each other of being provocative. At the UNSC council meeting, the US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: "The threats of aggression on the border of Ukraine ... is provocative. Our recognition of the facts on the ground is not provocative." She further stated how: "The provocation's from Russia, not from us or other members of this council." Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia responded: "Our Western colleagues are talking about the need for de-escalation. However, first and foremost, they themselves are whipping up tensions and rhetoric and are provoking escalation." Nebenzia also disputed the number of troops stationed at the border and said: "Where did you get the figure of 100,000 troops that are deployed as you said on the Russian Ukrainian border… we've never confirmed that figure." (David M. Herszenhorn, "US, Russia clash over Ukraine at UN Security Council debate," POLITICO, 31 January 2022; Michelle Nichols and Jonathan Landay, "Russia, US clash at UN over Russian troop build-up near Ukraine," Reuters, 31 January 2022)

France: Ambassador Meyer asked to leave Mali in 72 hours 

On 31 January, Mali's military leaders summoned French Minister Joël Meyer and ordered him to leave the country within 72 hours. Meyer was asked to leave due to the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian's comments on Mali's leadership calling them: "illegitimate…out of control". The military leader's action questions the French-led anti-terrorist military operation in Mali that the Malian leaders requested. The West is also concerned about Russia's involvement in the region. Le Drian also talked about the role of Russians, saying: "helping themselves to the country's resources in exchange for protecting the junta." Tensions have increased in Mali as the regime said they would hold power until 2025 instead of keeping their agreement on having elections in February. ("French ambassador expelled from Mali," BBC, 01 February 2022; "Mali expels French envoy over remarks by foreign minister," The Guardian, 31 January 2022)


31 January 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #112

Six reasons, why is Russia looking at Ukraine

Italian Presidential elections re-elect Sergio Mattarella; Storm Malik kills four people in northern Europe; NATO, UK to extend ‘support’ without deployment of troops to Ukraine

Photo : REUTERS/Oleksandr Klymenko/


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

Six reasons, why is Russia looking at Ukraine

First, historical reasons. In the 17th century, through the treaty of Pereyaslav, the Russian Tsar united Ukraine with Russia for the first time. Russia expanded its territory, integrating the Cossacks, and made Russian peasants settle in the Crimean region. While doing so, Russia and Poland parted the River Dnepr, where Russia took the Left Bank, and the Right Bank was taken by Poland. After the end of the World War-I, Ukraine’s independence movement sparked but was partitioned in 1921 by the Treaty of Riga. Eastern Ukraine was merged into the USSR; however, Ukraine got back the Crimean territory in 1954 under Russian Premiere Nikita Khrushchev. Present-day Russia considers this move a mistake and threatens to acquire eastern Ukraine.

Second, demographic interest. Although the ethnic Ukrainians remain the majority in Ukraine, in eastern Ukraine, more ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking populations dominate the region. The infiltration of the Russian aided separatist groups are also a reason for the increase in the Russian people in Eastern Ukraine. 

Third, natural resources including agriculture industry and the natural resources. The eastern Ukraine contains the highest quality soil, making it the largest crop-producing country. Apart from the rich soil, the region is also known for its gas, minerals, coal sources, and mines in the Donetsk area.

Fourth, geostrategic position in the Black Sea. It gives Russia a military advantage to carry out maneuvers, as it is the only warm-water port in Sevastopol. Moreover, Ukraine no more holds the longest coastline after losing the Crimean Peninsula to Russia. 

Fifth, the divide in the population over Russia. When assessing the population, it was found that more than a million Ukrainians support Putin’s war over Ukraine. Especially in the eastern Ukraine, the ethnic composition consists of a Russian majority.

Sixth, increased involvement of the separatists. After the annexation, the separatist group took control of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions, where the majority spoke Russian.

References:

Joe Biden to send US troops to Eastern Europe,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2022

Mychailo Wynnyckyj “Stop asking what Putin wants and start asking what Ukrainians want,” Atlantic Council, 22 January 2022

Bálint Störk, “Geopolitical situation of Ukraine and its importance,” Security and Defence Quarterly, 2015

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

ITALY 

President Mattarella gets re-elected

On 30 January, Italian President Sergio Mattarella withdrew his retirement plans and got elected to the post at the end of the eight-round of voting. Mattarella was ready to move out of the Presidential Quirinale Palace quarters to a new apartment in Rome. But, he recalled his decision to retire in the wake of a potential power vacuum in Italy. Mattarella said: "I had other plans, but if needed, I am at your disposition." Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said: "today can only be found around the figure of president Sergio Mattarella, of whom we know we're asking a great sacrifice." Italy had been worried about a power vacuum as incumbent Prime Minister Mario Draghi stood as a candidate for the President's post in the 2022 elections. His candidacy would leave Italy without a PM, spiraling the country's internal political stability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. ("Italy: Mattarella re-elected president in eighth round of voting," Euronews, 30 January 2022; Crispian Balmer, "Italy's Mattarella drops retirement plan, stays on as president," Reuters, 30 January 2022)

NORTHERN IRELAND

Marking 50 years of the Bloody Sunday massacre

On 30 January, Northern Ireland marked the 50th anniversary of the Bloody Sunday massacre when 13 unarmed protesters were shot dead by the British soldiers. A procession commemorating the incident saw streets leading to the Bloody Sunday Monument lined up with relatives of victims and others. For the first time, the annual remembrance service saw an Irish Premier Taoiseach Micheal Martin being present. Commenting on the lack of a conviction on the incident, Martin said: “I believe that the full process and justice of the courts should be deployed… It is important because time is moving on too for many, many families, and families need closure." (“Northern Ireland marks 50 years since Bloody Sunday,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2022) 

PORTUGAL 

Antonia Costa wins the snap general elections

On 30 January, Portugal held snap general elections, and the country’s center-left Socialists candidate Antonio Costa won the Prime Minister’s post. Portugal held elections recently as, in November 2020, the government faced difficulties as reported by Reuters: "Costa's hard-left former Communist and Left Bloc allies joined the right in striking down his minority government's budget." The election's final result came as a surprise as Costa's party won an absolute majority. In his victory speech, Costa said: "An absolute majority doesn't mean absolute power. It doesn't mean to govern alone. It's an increased responsibility and it means to govern with and for all Portuguese." At the same time, Portugal's Parliament is investigating claims of a possible cyberattack on their websites. A group claimed to have hacked the country's legislative elections website and had "stolen sensitive information." (Sergio Goncalves and Catarina Demony, Andrei Khalip, "Portugal's PM Costa stuns with majority win in snap election," Reuters, 31 January 2022; The Cube, "Portugal's parliament investigating possible website hack on election day," Euronews, 30 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Partygate Scandal: Investigative report to release soon

On 31 January, the UK’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke announced the release of the government report investigating the No 10 parties conducted during lockdown to be released soon. Several parties were allegedly conducted during the COVID-19 lockdowns at Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s residence. The lockdown breaches are currently subjected to the Sue Gray inquiry and will see an extensive report being published although access to the same will be limited.  (“Report on parties at UK PM Johnson's residence to come soon, minister says,” Reuters, 31 January 2022; Jessica Elgot, “Boris Johnson to try to regain control with Brexit bill and policy blitz,” The Guardian, 31 January 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ireland: Russian Ambassador Filatov announces relocation of naval drills

On 29 January, Russia Ambassador to Ireland Yuri Filatov announced that Moscow would relocate its naval exercises. The exercises were scheduled to take place on 03 February, off the coast of Ireland in the country's exclusive economic zone(EEZ). Therefore, Irish fishers pledged to protest and fish in the area where the maneuvers were set to take place. Filatov mentioned the decision was taken to shift the exercises outside the EEZ, saying: "with the aim not to hinder fishing activities." Fishermen near Cork in southern Ireland responded: "This is all we wanted. Now we can give out the information to our boats: 'Listen lads, out you go, fish away, no worries'." International law permits the Russians to hold the drill in the area, but the exercise schedule comes at a time when Russia-Ukraine tensions are at a peak. (Claire Parker, “Russia relocates naval exercise near Ireland after Irish fishermen said they would disrupt it,” The Washington Post, 31 January 2022; “Russia moves naval exercises upon Ireland's request,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2022)

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Northern Europe: Storm Malik kills four people

On 30 January, a powerful winter storm named Malik swept through northern Europe and killed at least four people. The storm also destroyed houses, damaged cars, closed bridges, and caused flooding, leading to the region coming to a standstill. Flooding, felling trees, and flying debris caused substantial damage in Denmark. While in Scotland, wind speeds of 160 kilometers per hour were reported that disrupted transportation and power cuts to thousands of homes. UK's Met Office Chief meteorologist Paul Gunderson said: "The impacts of Storm Malik are going to be the greatest in Denmark on Sunday, but the track of the storm in the preceding hours means that the UK will be dealt a glancing blow as Malik moves eastwards on Saturday." The BBC weather presenter Tomasz Schafernaker said: "eastern Scotland, including Edinburgh, Perth and Aberdeen, was expected to be worst affected." ("Winter storm Malik hits northern Europe, kills at least four," Euronews, 30 January 2022; Tom Ambrose, "Storm Malik: Met Office says power cuts and travel chaos possible," The Guardian, 28 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: NATO, UK extend ‘support’ sans deployment of troops

On 30 January, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the alliance would not be deploying combat troops to Ukraine if Russia were to invade the country. During an interview with the BBC, he said: “We are focusing on providing support… There is a difference between being a NATO member and being a strong and highly valued partner (such) as Ukraine. There's no doubt about that.” UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss mirrored a similar sentiment when she stated the “unlikeliness” of UK troops participating in the conflict, saying: “This is about making sure that the Ukrainian forces have all the support we can give them.” Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon. (“NATO, UK will ′support′ Ukraine if invaded by Russia, but won′t send troops,” Deutsche Welle, 30 January 2022; Emma Graham-Harrison, “UK ready to commit extra forces to Nato allies as Russia tension mounts,” The Guardian, 29 January 2022) 

Russia: Foreign Minister concerned about NATO implementation of security demands

On 30 January, Reuters reported Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s intention to verify whether NATO would “implement” the former’s “security commitments”. Lavrov added: “Today, through the Foreign Ministry, we are sending an official request to our colleagues in the Alliance and the OSCE, urging them to explain how they intend to implement (their) commitment not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others… If they do not intend to do so, then they should explain why. This will be a key question in determining our future proposals, which we will report to the Russian President Vladimir Putin." (“Russia to challenge NATO on security pledge, foreign minister Lavrov says,” Reuters, 30 January 2022)


29 January 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #111

Kosovo: The ban on Crypto mining

US ambassador calls for UNSC meeting on 31 January; Putin and Macron conduct telephonic conversation, Lavrov calls US response better than NATO’s; 

Photo : REUTERS/Hazir Reka/F


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Kosovo: The ban on Crypto mining

On 04 January, Kosovo's government announced a blanket ban on cryptocurrency mining due to the energy crisis. It launched a crackdown on mining and confiscated high-tech devices. Kosovo, until recently, offered cheap electricity rates that made crypto mining more lucrative. 

Apart from the low prices, Kosovo has the world's fifth-largest lignite reserve, which is also the best grade coal for electricity generation. Thus, it provided subsidized fuel bills adding crypto mining to flourish. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo have been using the available prospects to mint up to EUR 2,000 per month, mining crypto. 

Ethnic boundaries and crypto mining

The northern region of Mitrovica has been home to the country's ethnic Serb population, who refuse to recognize Kosovo as an independent country. Kosovo Liberation Army fought former President Slobodan Milošević's Serbian forces to gain independence during the 1998-1999 wars. In 1999 the UNSC passed a resolution stating autonomy for the region of Kosovo, and NATO peacekeeping forces were called to intervene. In February 2008, Kosovo voted to declare independence from Serbia, as the latter called it illegal.

Since 1999, the ethnic Serbs in the enclaves of North Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Zvecan, and Leposavic have been availing free electricity. Kosovo estimates their refusal to pay electricity at an annual loss of EUR 12 million. Even the EU, states that this unpaid energy is a reason for continuing disagreement and hinders the bloc's efforts to mediate between the two countries. In addition, Crypto miners have used this free electricity to mine cryptocurrency at Kosovo's expense and at the cost of reconciliation with Serbia. 

Power outrage and Crypto usage

In December 2021, the government announced a 60-day state of emergency, even though Kosovo's 90 per cent energy demands were met domestically. A combination of reasons caused Kosovo's recent energy shortage: First, It shut down one of its outdated power plants, which led the country to import 40 per cent of its energy from international markets. Second, The government also faced a sudden increase in energy demands due to the cold climatic conditions. Third, Rising gas and power prices in Europe tremendously increased due to COVID-19 and the geopolitical tensions with Russia; Moscow supplies one-third of Europe's gas. 

The 60-day state of emergency led to stricter restrictions of power use and highlighted the power usage by crypto miners. Cambridge University's bitcoin electricity consumption index stated that the global crypto mining consumed electricity up to 125.96 terawatt-hours a year, which is greater than the annual consumption of Argentina annually. Concerning the energy issues, Kosovo planned to allocate funds of EUR 20 million to provide subsidized electricity. Minister of Economy commented on the matter, saying, on one hand, the government was trying to subsidize electricity rates. But, on the other hand, crypto mining was going unregulated. Finance Minister said: "We cannot allow the illegal enrichment of some, at the expense of taxpayers."

The crackdown of miners in Kosovo and across the world

On 07 January, authorities launched several raids to crack down on the crypto mining operations. By 12 January, the police announced that they had confiscated 30 bitcoin mining devices. The Finance Minister said: "The confiscated equipment uses as much electricity as 500 homes a month or between EUR 60,000 and 120,000." But, crypto enthusiasts have questioned Pristina's actions as the cryptocurrency bill drafted in October 2021 had not been legislated. They have also emphasized that many people had heavily invested in crypto mining, while others had taken loans and now were directly affected by the restrictions. 

Iceland has clearly stated that it no longer welcomes crypto miners because of its power shortages. At the same time, President Biden has assured that the US will convene a hearing regarding the issues of crypto mining. Meanwhile, Iran placed a temporary ban to avoid power shortages caused by crypto mining. In September 2021, China launched a crackdown on crypto miners, resulting in the sale of thousands of cryptocurrency-mining rigs to Southeast Asian crypto enthusiasts. 

References: 

Daniel Boffey and Jack Butcher, "Panic as Kosovo pulls the plug on its energy-guzzling bitcoin miners," The Guardian, 16 January 2022.

Taulant Qenaj, Maja Ficovic and Tony Wesolowsky, "Used To Free Electricity, Kosovo's Bitcoin Miners Are Now Facing Difficult Times After Ban," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 12 January 2022. 

Alice Taylor, "Kosovo continues crackdown on crypto," Euractiv, 12 January 2022. 

"Kosovo bans cryptocurrency mining after blackouts," BBC, 05 December 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY

Green Vault jewel theft trial begins in Germany

On 28 January, the trial of the Six suspects involved in the Green Vault jewel theft began in Germany. The prosecutors have accused the men who carried out the heist at Dresden’s Museum worth EUR 113.8 million. According to the police report, the heist was done by setting fire to the power distribution box and using the darkness the robbers had taken away the jewels. Till now the stolen jewellery remains to be found and the director of the museum has denied to provide the value estimation of jewels as he considers them “priceless.” (“Dresden Green Vault jewelry heist trial starts,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2022)

ITALY

Sixth round of Presidential voting ends with no winner

On 28 January, the sixth round of voting took place in Italy for the selection of a new president. At the end of the voting, no winner was declared to succeed Italian President Sergio Mattarella. On the fifth day of voting, nationalist League leader Matteo Salvini made an effort to push votes for conservative Senate president, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati by urging his party members. When the results came in, Casellati had received only 382 votes in place of 505, losing by a small margin. The issue behind the hustle for presidency is, outgoing president Sergio Mattarella has refused to continue second-term despite gaining the maximum number of votes. (“Italy: Six rounds of voting fail to yield new president,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2022)

ENERGY

Austria: Government prepares EUR 1.7 billion energy package 

On 28 January, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer declared that the government would initiate a EUR 1.7 billion package of measures to support households deal with the hike in the energy prices. During a press conference, Nehammer said: “These are many individual steps that will be taken. The decisive issue is that these 1.7 billion (euros) are transferred to people quickly and they are, from our point of view, a first step. We are following developments very closely.” According to the national electricity and gas regulator E-Control, 60 per cent of Austrian power is generated via hydroelectricity and 14 per cent off natural gas. Energy prices in Europe have been soaring since fears of Russia invading Ukraine began. (“Austria plans 1.7 billion euro package to cushion energy price rises,” Reuters, 28 January 2022)

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Putin and Macron conduct telephonic conversation, Lavrov calls US response better than NATO’s

On 28 January, Russian President Vladimir Putin conversed with French President Emmanuel Macron via phone. A Kremlin readout of the phone call stated that Putin had agreed for further talks with the West while maintaining that the US and NATO had failed to consider their demands in their counterproposals. Following the talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the US’ counterproposals were better than those of NATO. Lavrov added that the US response included "grains of rationality" on "secondary issues." Meanwhile, he said that he was “ashamed for the people who wrote these (NATO) texts” as considered them to be "idealized". (“Ukraine tells West not to ′panic′ over Russia tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2022; Jennifer Rankin, Kim Willsher and Luke Harding, “Putin accuses Nato of ignoring Russia's concerns as Ukraine crisis simmers,” The Guardian, 28 January 2022)

EU to enforce the classification of branches as subsidiaries

On 28 January, the officials of Brussels proposed to classify the foreign banks as subsidiaries instead of branches. The move will force them to boost up their local balance sheet and bring the branches directly under the supervision of the EU. Apart from this, the position of lenders who opened branches post-Brexit will be entangled. The force's efforts to change the branches into subsidiaries is viewed as a last resort, as many member states have complained the current system of banks is complicated. As per the document: “Scope of systemic importance assessment and of the eventual joint decision seem unclear and exhibit apparent inconsistencies.” (Huw Jones, “Exclusive Foreign banks face bigger capital bill under draft EU plan,” Reuters, 29 January)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US ambassador calls for UNSC meeting on 31 January

On 27 January, the US ambassador to the UN’s Security Council (UNSC) Linda Thomas-Greenfield has called for a meeting on 31 January to deliberate the “threatening behaviour” of Russia against Ukraine. The ambassador released a statement: “Russia is engaging in other destabilizing acts aimed at Ukraine, posing a clear threat to international peace and security and the UN Charter… This is not a moment to wait and see. The council's full attention is needed now.” The previous meetings held on the issue have been inconclusive as Russia vetoes decisions made against it. (Michelle Nichols, “US asks UN Security Council to meet on Russia, Ukraine,” Reuters, 28 January 2022)

Ukraine: Biden-Zelenskyy holds telephonic conversation

On 27 January, US President Joe Biden held a telephonic conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss de-escalation efforts regarding the Ukraine conflict. Although Zelenskyy thanked Biden for the “military assistance,” on 28 January, he asked the West to not create ‘panic’ during an international media conference. He stated: “There is a feeling abroad that there is war here. That’s not the case. I am not saying an escalation is not possible … (but) we don’t need this panic.” Meanwhile, a statement by the White House maintained that the Biden administration was considering “additional macroeconomic support to help Ukraine's economy” given the immense pressure it faces from the Russian military build-up. (“Ukraine: Biden, Zelenskyy talk de-escalation with no end to tension in sight,” Deutsche Welle, 27 January 2022; “Ukraine tells West not to ′panic′ over Russia tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2022; Jennifer Rankin, Kim Willsher and Luke Harding, “Putin accuses Nato of ignoring Russia's concerns as Ukraine crisis simmers,” The Guardian, 28 January 2022)

US officials spot supply of blood along the Russian-Ukraine border for the wounded

On 28 January, the US officials reported blood supplies being circulated along the Russian border with Ukraine for the wounded. The recent development has further added to the obscurity of the rising tensions between the US and Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry is yet to respond to the comment. On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has complained that the West is yet to address Russia’s security demands but Russia is still open for diplomatic talks. (Phil Stewart and Vladimir Soldatkin, Alexander Marrow, “Russian buildup at Ukraine border includes blood for wounded, U.S. officials say,” Reuters, 29 January)


28 January 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #110

Russia: One year since Alexei Navalny’s arrest

Kyiv residents prepare for war; EU takes the China-Lithuania dispute to WTO; Denmark to withdraw troops from Mali; Sweden’s nuclear waste facility;

Photo : REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Russia: One year since Alexei Navalny’s arrest

On 17 January, Kremlin dissident Alexei Navalny marked a year since his arrest. On the day, Navalny tweeted expressing his lack of “regret” regarding his decision to return to Russia, despite the implication of a second arrest. The occasion also saw many international and regional actors calling for his release. In 2020, a murder attempt on Navalny resulted in being poisoned leading to his treatment in Germany. On returning to Russia, he was detained by police at immigration in Moscow. However, the Kremlin denied having any role in the poisoning and had blamed the West for plotting to taint their reputation.

Alexei Navalny: “Putin’s most prominent critic”

According to the Kremlin spokesperson: "The non-systemic opposition (Navalny's allies) crossed a red line a while ago. What they were doing was using provocations and all methods to try to stir up social unrest… The aim is to maintain stability in society.” In 2021, Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) was closed down after being labelled an extremist organization, implying no member of the organization could run for public office. This kept them from participating in the 2020 parliamentary elections. 

Navalny’s popularity was a threat to Vladimir Putin staying in power. Surprisingly, the Russian repression of the opposition and media freedom largely coincides with the rise and fall of Navalny and his FBK group. Considered Putin’s most vocal political opponent, Navalny had managed to garner unprecedented popularity implying a direct challenge to Putin. As a result, Putin decided to term Navalny and his organization as a “threat to Russian stability.” The move removed Navalny and his allies from the competition, altogether.

The aftermath

Since 02 February 2021, Navalny has been imprisoned in a collective labour colony in Russia’s Vladimir Oblast region, east of Moscow. He currently serves a two-and-a-half years prison sentence for allegedly violating a parole. Apart from this, he faces six additional charges. Meanwhile, Navalny’s allies have been blacklisted, forced to leave the country, or restricted from free movement. 

On 25 January, Russia’s Federal Service for Financial Monitoring added Navalny to a database of "terrorists and extremists". This addition implied Navalny is now categorized along with right-wing nationalist organizations like Afghanistan's militant Islamist Taliban and the extremist "Islamic State" (IS) group. Along with him, nine other members of the FBK were also added. Navalny's brother Oleg Navalny has also been jailed by the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN). According to Amnesty International’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Director Marie Struther: “... the politician, his supporters and Russian civil society organizations have suffered a relentless onslaught of repression. Dozens of Navalny’s associates and supporters are facing prosecutions on bogus charges, while a growing number of them are already in prison.”

Nonetheless, Navalny’s efforts have been recognized by the global community. In October 2021, the European Parliament honoured him with the Sakharov Prize, a laurel that has earlier been received by Nelson Mandela, Aung San Suu Kyi and Malala Yousafzai.

What next for Navalny? 

Navalny was quick to criticize the West with regard to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. He accused the West of dancing to Russia’s tunes since Putin’s attempts at escalating tensions was a “smokescreen” that was driven by the fear of dissent within Russia. Navalny, has maintained long correspondences with magazines, one among which was the Time, saw the magazine citing him: “It isn’t NATO that keeps Putin up at night; it’s the space for democratic dissent that NATO opens up along his border.” In one of his many letters to the Time correspondent, Navalny added: “Time and again the West falls into Putin’s elementary traps… It just takes my breath away, watching how Putin pulls this on the American establishment again and again.”

Despite his pending prison sentence, Navalny’s online presence remains stronger than ever. His opinions on contemporary issues and updates from his daily life are regularly published on Twitter and other social media websites. To make things worse for the Kremlin, on 25 January, the Sundance Film Festival premiered a documentary titled ‘Navalny,’ portraying the events that led to his prison sentence, the Kremlin’s role in it and the agenda behind it all. Boosting an already popular Navalny, the film sees him saying: “As I became more and more famous guy, I was totally sure that my life became safer and safer because I am kind of famous guy — and it will be problematic for them just to kill me… I was very wrong.”

References:

Johnny Oleksinski, “'Navalny' doc at Sundance hits Putin where it hurts,” New York Post, 26 January 2022. 

Russia adds Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny to ′terrorist′ list,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2022.

Callie Patteson, “Alexei Navalny accuses US of 'accepting Putin's agenda' during Ukraine tensions,” New York Post, 19 January 2022. 

Simon Shuster, “The Man Putin Fears,” Time, 19 January 2022.

Alexei Navalny says he has ′no regrets′ 1 year since arrest,” Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022.

EU urges Moscow to free Navalny on anniversary of his arrest,” Reuters, 17 January 2022.

One year after jailing, Aleksei Navalny and his associates in a “living hell”,” Amnesty International USA, 16 January 2022.

Jack Parrock, “Sakharov Prize: European Parliament honors Alexei Navalny,” Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2021.

Anton Zverev, Darya Korsunskaya and Andrew Osborn, “'New normal': Kremlin says tough approach to Navalny allies here to stay,” Reuters, 22 September 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

MONTENEGRO

The government of Montenegro in the brink of collapse 

On 27 January, Montenegro government reached a breakpoint of collapse as the coalition parties came into conflict over ideological differences. Previously, the coalition government was formed in December 2020 winning one of the strongest parties, Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). The first step taken to dissolve the leadership was taken on 19 January when the Deputy Prime Minister filed a motion for a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapić and the government. (“Montenegro lurches back into political crisis as former allies try to oust PM,Euro news, 27 January 2022

SPAIN

Catalonia passes resolution in memory of women executed for witchcraft

On 26 January, Members of Parliament in Catalonia approved a resolution to rehabilitate the memory of more than 700 women killed. The women were accused of being witches and were victims of execution; their details were discovered by the scientific journal Sapiens and Barcelona's historian Pau Castell. BBC reported: "We have recently discovered the names of more than 700 women who were persecuted, tortured and executed between the 15th and 18th centuries." Historians in Spain discovered that the region of Catalonia was one of the first regions in the 1400s to carry out mass witch hunts and was considered one of the worst areas for executions. Pro-independence and left-wing MPs mentioned how women were "victims of misogynistic persecution" in the middle ages. As reported by Euronews: "An estimated 50,000 people were condemned to death for witchcraft across Europe between 1580 and 1630, around 80% of whom were women." ("Catalonia pardons women executed for witchcraft," BBC, 27 January 2022; "Catalonia's parliament pardons hundreds of women executed for 'witchcraft'," Euronews, 26 January 2022)

Spain’s national institution proposes investigation into sexual misconduct case

On 27 January, for the first time the three left leaning political parties, Podemos, ERC (The Republican Left of Catalonia), and EH Bildu (Euskal Herria Bildu) of Spain announced a proposal to create a commission of inquiry to look into pedophilia and sexual misconduct of the Catholic Church. The other European countries such as Germany and France have begun investigations on the same. (“Spain: Left-wing parties call for inquiry commission into church sexual abuse allegations,” Euro news, 27 January 2022)

SWEDEN

Sweden approves new nuclear waste storage facility

On 27 January, the government of Sweden approved the site in Forsmark, located in the north of Stockholm to function as the nuclear waste storage facility. The facility is planned in a way to hold the nuclear waste in the bedrock level and is expected to get filled by the end of 70 years, upon which the bentonite clay will be used to seal the facility. So far, Sweden has three nuclear power plants which produce close to 8,000 tonnes of radioactive waste. In recent days, the nuclear waste and disposal mechanism is turning into a major problem, especially among European countries. (“Sweden approves plans for Forsmark nuclear waste storage site,” Deutsche Welle, 28 January 2022)

UKRAINE

Kyiv residents prepare for war

On 27 January, as tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalate, and western countries calling back their citizens and officials, the residents of Ukraine said they were already preparing for war. A Kyiv resident Lolita said: "…The exchange rate for the dollar is rising, prices are getting higher…My friends and I are thinking of going to Europe for some time and wait there." Another citizen, Oleh, expressed: "It concerns every Ukrainian. Some people have started gathering food, some are cleaning their weapons and preparing for an attack. There is a lot of information about this in the media. Everyone knows about this threat." Ukrainian officials have urged people to remain calm and worry that Russia could take advantage of the environment of fear. Meanwhile, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France met in Paris to discuss the de-escalation of tensions using the Normandy format talks. ("'People in Ukraine are ready for war': Kyiv residents speak on Russia tensions," Euronews, 27 January 2022; James Marson, "On the Brink of War With Russia, Ukrainians Are Resigned and Prepared," The Wall Street Journal, 24 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 

Denmark: Withdrawal of troops from Mali

On 27 January, Denmark announced the pullback of its troops from Mali after the transitional junta government demanded Copenhagen for an immediate withdrawal. The withdrawal led to a major setback for France's attempts to lead counter-terrorism operations in the region of Sahel. Tensions had resumed in Mali as the transitional government failed to organize elections after the military coup, which lead to International actors imposing sanctions on the junta government. Denmark had sent 105 military personnel to Mali after the country invited them to join the European special forces to fight against Islamist militants in the region. But, the Mali government clarified that they had not decided to allow Danish troops to be deployed in Mali. The withdrawal has highlighted Mali's issues with France as Bamako was a former French colony. The junta lashed out on France saying it should keep its "colonial reflexes" under check. (Nikolaj Skydsgaard and John Irish, "Denmark pulls Mali troops out as junta takes swipe at France," Reuters, 27 January 2022; "Denmark to start pulling troops out of Mali after junta's demand," France24, 27 January 2022)

EU accuses China of illegal trade practices with Lithuania

On 27 January, the EU launched an official dispute on behalf of Lithuania with the World Trade Organisation(WTO). The EU accused China of boycotting Lithuanian goods; But,  Beijing refued the allegations. European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said: "For the time-being we have not found a negotiated solution. That's why we are now exercising our WTO rights." He justified Lithuania's stance with Taiwan, saying: "The EU is respecting the One-China policy and our assessment is that steps taken by Lithuania do not step out of the One-China policy framework." China has denied all allegations and stated that it rejected goods due to customs issues. Since the case has been taken to the WTO, it will positively respond, but its intervention would impact regional trade. (Jessica Parker, "Lithuania-China row: EU escalates trade dispute with Beijing," BBC, 27 January 2022)

US warns Russia on halting Nord Stream 2 pipeline in case of invasion

On 27 January, the US State Department spokesperson warned Russia that if Ukraine was invaded, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would not go forward. Although inclusion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as part of the sanctions on Russia is still under debate. According to the previous government under Angela Merkel the pipeline was considered entirely commercial, but with regard to the current government, it perceives the other way. The German Chancellor said: "Should this situation occur, we will jointly act. There would be a high price." The US President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet Qatar’s Emir on 31 January to discuss on the stability of global energy supply and the security situation in the Middle East. (“US: Nord Stream 2 will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 27 January 2022; “Scoop: Qatar emir to visit White House on Monday,” Axios, 25 January 2022)


27 January 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #109

Taking on China: EU, Lithuania, and France

Normandy format talks held, agreement on ceasefire; US and NATO send written response to Russian security demands; Netherlands world’s largest canal

Photo : REUTERS/Janis Laizans


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Taking on China: EU, Lithuania, and France

In November 2021, Lithuania approved the opening of a Taiwan representative office in Vilnius. Since then, China's crackdown on the diplomatic ties of Lithuania and Taiwan has affected Lithuanian exports. The trade from other countries such as France, Germany, and Sweden, were also directly affected as they were a part of the bigger supply chain to Lithuania. France, also holding the rotating EU presidency, vowed to take measures against the Chinese actions. What are the options available for the EU? 

EU's anti-coercion instrument has not been enacted yet; it will not be implemented until an agreement is reached. France hopes to implement the legislation by the summer of 2022, but a new legislation can take several years to come into force. Till then, French President Emmanuel Macron has assured that the decisions would only be accepted, keeping in mind the overall EU-China policy agenda. Therefore, the EU has resorted to impose pressure on China solely via diplomatic channels.  

Responses from Lithuania and Slovenia

China's tactics of downgrading Lithuanian diplomatic ties to chargé d'affaires level and taking a firmer stance through multinational companies (MNCs) have led the EU to unite and take a more affirmative stance against it. Lithuanian Parliament's Foreign Affairs expert Žygimantas Pavilionis said: "This is about the weaponization of trade. This is about the weaponization of European value chains." China's weaponization of European value chains could lead to the EU and regional countries stepping up their Indo-Pacific strategy. 

Subsequently, Slovenia has confirmed setting up trade offices with Taiwan. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša announced his support to the "sovereign decision" of Taiwan. He also commented on the Lithuanian issue, saying: "Frankly speaking, there is a vast majority of the EU member countries holding some kind of representative offices with Taiwan. And Lithuania is not [an] exemption." However, Slovenia will continue to be a part of the 16+1 group led by Beijing, unlike Lithuania. 

Reactions of MNCs in the EU

German MNCs have been pressuring the Lithuanian government to withdraw its dispute with China. China has been threatening to retaliate against the companies that operated or supplied to Lithuania. The diplomatic debacle has gravely hit the German car sector. The German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce said: "the basic business model of the companies is in question and some ... will have no other choice than to shut down production in Lithuania." Nonetheless, the Federation of German Industries announced a tough stance to be taken on China's economic sanctions and human rights policies. They also stated that Beijing's actions amounted to a trade boycott.

France denounces Chinese genocide of Uyghur muslims

On 20 January, the French Parliament passed a resolution that officially recognized China's treatment of Uyghurs as genocide. The resolution by the National Assembly read: "... officially recognises the violence perpetrated by the People's Republic of China against the Uyghurs as constituting crimes against humanity and genocide." The non-binding resolution also calls on the French government to protect the interests of the minority group in China. 

Socialist Party Chief Olivier Faure commented on this: "China is a great power. We love the Chinese people. But we refuse to submit to propaganda from a regime that is banking on our cowardice and our avarice to perpetrate genocide in plain sight." The Chinese embassy in France retaliated, saying the recent judgment would seriously damage China-France relations, stating: "...the French side is fully aware of the absurdity and harmfulness of this resolution."

European Parliament's resolution on Hong Kong

On 20 January, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the violation of fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, Kazakhstan, and Sudan. The Parliament condemned the deteriorating fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong as the government had imposed severe restrictions on various facets of human rights. Furthermore, the Members of Parliament noted the increasing legitimization of the authoritarian system internally and externally and urged the Council to impose sanctions against Hong Kong and Chinese officials responsible for the ongoing human rights crackdown.

References:

Andrius Sytas and John O'Donnell, "Analysis: German big business piles pressure on Lithuania in China row," Reuters, 21 January 2022.

Giorgio Leali and Stuart Lau, "French parliament puts pressure on Macron by declaring Chinese treatment of Uyghurs a 'genocide'," POLITICO, 20 January 2022. 

"Human rights breaches in Hong Kong, Kazakhstan and Sudan," European Parliament, 20 January 2022.

Stuart Lau, "Slovenia to bolster trade ties with Taiwan, wading into row with China," POLITICO, 18 January 2022.

Judy Dempsey, "China's Bullying of Lithuania Spurs European Unity," Carnegie Europe, 18 January 2022. 

Barbara Moens and Giorgio Leali. "EU resorts to bluff in its trade conflict with China," POLITICO, 13 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

DENMARK

Denmark announces to remove COVID-19 restrictions

On 26 January, Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced the removal of all the existing COVID-19 restrictions, despite increasing Omicron cases. Till now 46,000 new cases have been recorded, but the restrictions are set to be put off from 01 February. The Health Minister has also agreed on the removal of the restrictions stating the drive for revaccination is at a good rate. Overall, 82 per cent of the Denmark population stand fully vaccinated. (Thibault Spirlet “Denmark becomes first EU country to scrap all COVID-19 restrictions,” POLITICO, 26 January 2022)

GREECE

Prime Minister Mitsotakis apologizes over delay in handling the snow storm

On 26 January, the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis apologized for the state’s inability in tackling the intense snowstorm that the country was facing. He attributed the lag in the readiness of the government to evacuation procedures of  those trapped in the storm due to delayed calculations of incurred damages. According to the meteorologists of the country, the warning for the storm was given early but the government reportedly ignored it. Mitsotakis said: “It is equally true, however, that the state mechanism is not yet at the point of readiness that phenomena of such great intensity require.” (Helena Smith, “Greek PM faces blizzard of anger as thousands stranded in Athens snow,” The Guardian, 26 January 2022) 

NETHERLANDS

Netherlands world’s largest canal lock to facilitate entry of large ships

On 26 January, the Netherlands launched the world’s largest canal lock which connects the North Sea Canal with the port of Amsterdam. The construction project which was estimated to be completed by 2019 did not only get delayed but overshot the budget by EUR 300 million. The completion of the canal means an easy passage for large, modern cargo ships to reach Amsterdam. Apart from the economic benefit, with the advance of technical development it will facilitate accurate water level for larger ships to enter the canal. (“Netherlands unveils 'world's-largest' canal lock,” Deutsche Welle, 26 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Boris Johnson faces accusation over the partygate scandal

On 26 January, during the weekly session of the Prime Ministers’ Questions (PMQ), British parliamentarians raged accusations against Prime Minister Boris Johnson over the partygate scandal. The opposition leaders of the Labour Party and the Scottish National Party questioned Johnson’s actions and accused him of breaking his own laws during the pandemic. On 25 January, London Metropolitan Police force announced that an investigation into the events was underway and a report of the same was to be released soon. This report will decide whether or not Johnson and his staff broke the pandemic rules. (“UK PM Boris Johnson faces heat ahead of 'partygate' report,” Deutsche Welle, 26 January 2022)

REGIONAL

France: Normandy talks held; leaders reiterate need to maintain a ceasefire 

On 26 January, the Normandy format talks were held in France’s Elysee Palace. The eight-hour-long meeting saw representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France discuss efforts to de-escalate Ukrainian tensions. The first meeting under the format since 2019, saw Ukraine being represented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s adviser Andriy Yermak while Russia was represented by Kremlin envoy Dmitry Kozak. Despite the complicated nature of the talks, Kozak stated that there was just one common ground that all the parties agreed to, which was a ceasefire (in eastern Ukraine). This would be maintained according to the “accords,” referring to the Minsk Protocol. After the meeting, the Elysee Palace released a statement that said further dialogue would happen in two weeks at Berlin. (“Russia, Ukraine agree to uphold ceasefire in Normandy talks,” Deutsche Welle, 26 January 2022) 

GENDER

Poland: Pregnant woman succumbs to death after doctors refuse abortion

On 25 January, The Guardian reported that a Polish woman, referred to as Agnieszka T, had died after doctors refused to terminate her pregnancy despite the foetus’s heartbeat stopping. On 21 December 2021, Agnieszka was admitted to the Blessed Virgin Mary hospital in Poland’s Częstochowa during the first trimester of a twin pregnancy. Within two days, the first foetus died in the womb; however, the doctors refused to remove it, citing the Polish legislation on abortion. This led to the quick deterioration of her health. The pregnancy was terminated on 31 December 2021 after the heartbeat of the second twin stopped. Agnieszka’s family has blamed the Polish government for having “blood on their hands”. Poland’s already restrictive abortion laws were further tightened in 2021, making it one of the most repressive in Europe. (Weronika Strzyżyńska, “Polish state has 'blood on its hands' after death of woman refused an abortion,” The Guardian, 26 January 2022) 

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

EU General Court voids antitrust fine imposed on Intel

On 26 January, the EU General Court invalidated a European Commission fine of EUR 1.06 billion that was imposed on the US tech giant Intel citing antitrust matters. According to the ruling, the court maintained that the findings of the Commission were incomplete and failed to prove that Intel had given discounts to customers that accounted for anti-competitive effects. Intel had reportedly pushed other competitors out of the market. The Commission can further appeal to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). This is the second time the case is being examined; earlier, the ECJ had ordered a further study on the case citing a legal error. The EUR 1.06 billion fine was the fourth-largest penalty forwarded by the bloc's antitrust regulator. Google has been similarly fined and is now appealing against the same. (EU court annuls €1 billion Intel antitrust fine,” Deutsche Welle, 26 January 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US and NATO issue written reply to Russian demands

On 26 January, the US declared that a written reply to Russian security demands had been delivered via the US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed the document made no concessions while addressing Moscow's concerns and raising those of Washington's allies. Blinken, who is expected to hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, said that the letter could not be made public. Blinken justified this by stating, “diplomacy has the best chance to succeed if space was provided for confidential talks”. NATO has also sent a similar response to Moscow. Both the responses have maintained the US’ and NATO’s stance on the Russian demand that Ukraine is never given NATO accession; they stated NATO’s commitment to the open-door policy stayed put. (“US, NATO send written response on Russia′s security demands,” Deutsche Welle, 26 January 2022; Julian Borger, Angelique Chrisafis, Luke Harding and Andrew Roth, “US holds firm on Ukraine's right to join Nato in its response to Russian demands,” The Guardian, 26 January 2022) 


26 January 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #108

Profile of Ukraine: Looking into history, political demography and ethnic composition 

Russia-Ukraine tensions to cause high inflation; Belarusian railway hacked by ‘Cyberpartisans’ to deter Russian troops; Australia to provide Europe with LNG if Russia cuts gas supply

Photo : REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

Profile of Ukraine: Looking into history, political demography and ethnic composition 

Following World War I, Ukrainian territory was split into four. While the eastern flank remained under Soviet Ukraine, Romania occupied Bukovina (Central or Eastern Europe), while Transcarpathia (Westernmost) became part of Czechoslovakia and Poland merged Galicia and Volhynia along with few other smaller areas in the north west.

The History

Ukraine, in the interwar period, was dominated by the Communists, Poles, Romanians, and Hungarians. Soviet Ukraine’s two main challenges in this period was dealing with the New Economic Policy (NEP) introduced by Vladmir Lenin and the Russification process. With the launch of the NEP, industrialization and urban population flourished in Soviet Ukraine; however, along with collectivization rules came the famine which emptied out many Ukrainian villages. The policy of Russification, launched by the Soviet regime, gave rise to the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) that was led by Stalin-loyalists which was later taken over by CPU First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev. Russification suppressed all forms of Ukrainian culture and approved numerous arrests, executions and decimations of Ukraine elites, intellectuals and writers. All of this had emerged as the first step towards Ukrainization. In the West, the Polish, Romanians and Hungarian also followed similar trails with repressive measures against the Ukrainian language, education system, and organizations. These factors became the cause for the rise of nationalism amongst the Ukrainian population, ethnic, cultural and religious groups.

During World War II and its aftermath, the major actors in Ukraine were the Nazi Germans, Soviet partisans, and Poles. While close to 1.5 million Ukrainians along with those of Jewish descent perished due to the countless killings, around 800,000 were displaced following German territorial occupation. The Battle of Stalingrad brought Ukraine completely under the control of the Red Army leading to its western borders being redrawn; for the first time, Polish-Ukrainian borders saw a clear ethnic and political composition. 

In the post-war period, Ukraine was led by four prominent Soviet leaders, Joseph Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev, Shelest and Shcherbytsky who revolutionized the regional demography, economy, politics, language and culture. The most prominent among them were Stalin and Khrushchev. Stalin in his last years, brought back totalitarian controls (Russification) and enforced Sovietization. Thousands of Ukrainian nationalists were deported to concentration camps and scholars who wrote patriotic themes against the Germans were expelled as their work was destroyed alongside cultural institutions of the anti-cosmopolitan campaign. Under the leadership of Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev, the voice of Ukraine was made to sound louder. Although the primary leadership roles in the Communist Party belonged to Soviets, Khrushchev made exceptions by letting a few Soviet-loyal Ukrainians also hold them. Apart from this, it led to a steady increase in the Ukrainian party membership from 28 to 60 per cent as the decentralization policy was implemented to augment powers of the Ukrainian party in the administration and economic aspects.

As the economic situation deteriorated in the late 1980s, the new leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s launch of economic campaigns ‘perestroika’ and ‘glasnost’ only deteriorated the economy leading to mass movements amongst the republics which took place from the Baltic, Transcaucasian, to Ukraine. In the next few years, Ukraine saw an emergence of new parties, leaders, Ukrainian being declared as the official language, restoration of public awareness on historical events along with nationalist revival being at its peak. At the same time, the Ukrainians also faced resistance from the CPU. On 01 December 1991, following the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine gained independence and agreed to establish the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

In the post-independence period, Ukraine along with other republics faced various challenges in terms of economic, political and military instability as well as a threat to sovereign territory. In the lens of Russia, CIS was still an option to pull back its lost territories. There was also the issue of dealing with Russia's influence. Infiltrating the population was a well-known strategy of Russians and handling this was a major problem for Ukraine. Further, the dilemma of engaging with the West was worrisome as Ukraine feared engaging with the West or pursuing membership into the EU or NATO would aggravate Russia. Since it still depended on Russia for financial strengthening and economic building, Ukraine was forced to adopt a “checks and balances” policy. This ensured a balance in relations with the West and Russia, all the while keeping its sovereignty undisturbed.

Ethnic composition

Previously, Ukraine’s population consisted primarily of Jews and Poles in the Right Bank region (west of the Dnieper River). By late 19th century, the Jewish population increased to 10 million in the Ukrainian territory; however, the Holocaust led to a huge number either migrating or being killed. After World War II, Ukraine consisted of only around 150,000 ethnic Poles as the majority of the Polish went back to Poland. In 1991, when Ukraine was still a part of the USSR, two migration policies were in place. A policy of Russian in-migration and Ukrainian out-migration; under this, the population decreased in Ukraine going from 77 per cent to 73 per cent. This scenario reversed after the independence of Ukraine with three-fourth of ethnic Ukrainians settling in Ukraine; meanwhile, the Russian population stayed back, becoming the largest minority in Ukraine. The historical ethnic groups like the Belarusians, Moldovans, Bulgarians, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians and the Crimean Tatars also remained in fractions as they were allowed to return in late 1980 to Ukraine.

Present-day Ukraine 

From the historical backdrop, the following trends can be drawn by comparing with the contemporary conflict situation.

First, historic linkage. Amongst the other ex-USSR republics, Ukraine had the potential to be in equal power with the USSR in terms of territory, resource, talent and state administration. With years of developments in the region and with Russia seeking to reunite its historical links, Ukraine has become the target of Russia.

Second, decline in dependency. After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine was a new-born state with domestic instability and no external relations. It had to rely on Russia for economic and security needs as it was the only country it had relations with. The dependency has now reversed in over three decades through economic evolution and with a massive boost to its relations with the West. 

Third, the increased role of the West. The role of the US or the EU with reference to Ukraine was largely absent in history. Ukraine has since increased the West’s participation in the region due to the implementation of a strategic foreign policy.

References:

Yerofeyev, Ivan Alekseyevich, Hajda, Lubomyr A., Kryzhanivsky, Stepan Andriyovich, Stebelsky, Ihor,  Makuch, Andrij and Zasenko, Oleksa Eliseyovich. "Ukraine," Encyclopedia Britannica, 29 June 2021.

Mark Kramer, “Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago?,” Wilson Center, 2014.

Kundu, Nivedita Das, “Russia and the Former Soviet States: Dynamics of Relations.” Policy Perspectives, 2007.

 

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews

RUSSIA

Kremlin includes Navalny in “terrorist” list 

On 25 January, Russia’s Federal Service for Financial Monitoring added Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny to a database of "terrorists and extremists." This implies that Navalny is now in the same category as other right-wing nationalist organizations like Afghanistan's militant Islamist Taliban and the extremist "Islamic State" (IS) group. The decision comes in the backdrop of Putin’s attempts to dull down dissent. Nine other members of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation are also said to be added to this list; earlier in January, Leonid Volkov and Ivan Zhdanov who aided Navalny were also included in the same. On the same day, Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) called for Navalny's brother Oleg Navalny to be jailed for provoking people to violate COVID-19 restrictions. (“Russia adds Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny to ′terrorist′ list,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2022)

REGIONAL

Germany: President Macron meets Chancellor Scholz

On 25 January, French President Emmanuel Macron met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during the former’s visit to Berlin. The two leaders discussed the Ukraine conflict and mentioned how France and Germany were ready to dialogue with Russia. Macron commented on the US-Russia talks and said they were a "good thing,"despite being inconclusive. He also said: "We are preparing in parallel a joint reaction and the response in case of aggression." Scholz added: "We expect from Russia clear steps that contribute to a de-escalation of the situation. We are all in agreement that a military aggression will trigger heavy consequences." Scholz's comments reaffirmed Germany’s support to Ukraine as mixed signals were sent when it previously refused to sell weapons to Kyiv. ("Macron says Europe is preparing 'common response' in case of Russian aggression," France24, 25 January 2022; "Macron says cost to Russia will be 'very high' if it attacks Ukraine," Euronews, 25 January 2022)

ECONOMY

Russia-Ukraine tensions to cause high inflation for an extended period

On 25 January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a statement that claimed the escalated conflict between Russia and Ukraine would lead to higher inflation for an extended period. IMF's Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the situation was different from the Crimean annexation which saw a fall in energy prices and a low demand for shale gas. However, Gopinath maintained that “if this conflict were to happen, you would see an increase in energy prices”. The 2015 sanctions imposed on Russia contracted its economy by 3.7 per cent, while currently, it is aimed to grow at 2.8 per cent without the forecast of a military conflict. As reported by Reuters: "Gopinath told…that an escalation of the conflict and potential Western sanctions on Russia would likely push oil and natural gas prices higher, driving energy costs higher for many countries in the world." (Andrea Shalal and David Lawder, "Escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict would keep inflation higher longer -IMF," Reuters, 26 January 2022)

ENERGY

Ukraine: Australia to provide Europe with LNG if Russia cuts gas supply

On 25 January, the Australian Resources Minister Keith Pitt stated that the country was “ready to assist with any request for further supplies” amid concerns of European reliance on Russian gas whilst the conflict. Pitt added: “This shows how important Australian resources are to energy supplies around the world.” A senior US official stated that alternative LNG requirements were being considered “whether it’s from the United States or from Australia or from other places”. Russia is said to have already reduced the gas flow to 50m cubic metres per day from the previous 100m cubic metres. Meanwhile, the Russian ambassador to Australia Alexey Pavlovsky commented on the troop buildup: “These troops are not a threat, they are a warning – a warning to Ukraine’s rulers not to attempt any reckless military adventures.” (Daniel Hurst, “Australia could send extra gas to Europe as Russia cuts supplies due to Ukraine tensions,” The Guardian, 26 January 2022)

GENDER

France: Parliament adopts law banning gay conversion therapy

On 25 January, the French Parliament approved a law banning gay conversion therapy in the country. The bill, passed by 142 Members of Parliament with no opposition, had in October 2021 received support from the French Assembly to be eventually passed by the senators in December 2021. Under the new law, anyone attempting to change the sexual orientation or gender identity of the LGBTQ+ people would face up to three years imprisonment along with a EUR 45,000 fine depending on the situation and the people involved. MP of the En Marche party Laurence Vanceunebrock said: "We are sending out a strong signal because we are formally condemning all those who consider a change of sex or identity as an illness." ("French MPs approve law banning so-called gay conversion therapy," Euronews, 25 January 2022)

MIGRATION

Italy: Seven migrants dead and 280 migrants rescued in Tunisian waters

On 25 January, the Italian coastguard reported the death of seven migrants who were trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea in freezing conditions. Three migrants were found dead, and four had died due to hypothermia while being transported to the Greek island of Lampedusa. Another 280 migrants were also rescued as they were on board a 20-metre wooden boat in Tunisian waters when they made a distress call. The rough sea conditions delayed the search of the boat for several hours. Most of the migrants on board were of Egyptian and Bangladeshi origin. The NGO Alarm Phone who had informed the authorities about the boat commented on the issue, saying: "Their deaths could have been prevented." ("7 migrants die, 280 rescued off Italian island of Lampedusa," The Washington Post, 25 January 2022; "Seven migrants die and 280 more rescued off Italian island of Lampedusa," Euronews, 25 January 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Ukraine: Belarusian railway hacked by ‘Cyberpartisans’ to deter Russian troops 

On 25 January, Belarusian hacktivist group “Cyberpartisans’ have claimed that the state-run railway’s computer system has been hacked in an attempt to deter Russian forces from travelling to Ukraine. According to The Guardian, they have threatened to “paralyse trains”. Staunch critics of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the group aims to free political prisoners while stopping Belarusian soldiers from “dying for this meaningless war”. They have called on the government to stop acting as a “staging ground,” saying: “We don’t want Russian soldiers in Belarus since it compromises the sovereignty of the country and puts it in danger of occupation. It also pulls Belarus into a war with Ukraine.” (Andrew Roth, “'Cyberpartisans' hack Belarusian railway to disrupt Russian buildup,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Biden says personal sanctions could be imposed on Putin

On 25 January, US President Joe Biden stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be impacted by personal sanctions if Moscow were to invade Kyiv. He expressed that if Russia were to invade Ukraine it would be the "largest invasion" after World War II, as “it would change the world”. Meanwhile, the US has been diplomatically engaging with leading energy-producing countries preparing for a scenario of Russia restricting gas supply to Europe. The White House released a statement confirming a meeting with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and Biden, by the end of January. However, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on the current condition in the country, stated: "We are strong enough to keep everything under control and derail any attempts at destabilization.'' (“Ukraine: Joe Biden says US could sanction Vladimir Putin,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2022)


25 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #107

US and NATO dispatch further military support to Eastern Europe, infuriating Kremlin

EU Foreign Ministers discuss possible response to Russian invasion of Ukraine; Snowstorm in southern Mediterranean countries; Russia to hold naval exercises near Ireland

Photo : Ukrainian Defence ministry press


IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews

ITALY

Presidential Elections 2022: First round of voting inconclusive

On 24 January, the first round of voting for the Italian presidential elections that lasted for five hours saw Italian lawmakers unsuccessful in agreeing on a candidate. Although Prime Minister Mario Draghi was the most popular choice; however, concerns of political instability led to a unanimous decision not being reached. Rightist League leader Matteo Salvini commented on the proceedings: “I am working to ensure that in the next few hours the centre-right will offer not just one but several quality proposals.” The second round of voting will be held on 25 January. (Gavin Jones, Angela Amante and Crispian Balmer, “Italy president vote ends in stalemate; leaders seek deal,” Reuters, 25 January 2022) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine: EU Foreign Ministers meet to discuss response to imminent Russian invasion

On 24 January, EU Foreign Ministers met in Brussels to discuss the measures to be undertaken in the face of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. Following the meeting, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell commented on the necessity of a “united” response from the member states if Russia were to escalate tensions. Borrell added that the EU would support Ukraine to counter Russian attacks while maintaining the “path of dialogue” in resolving the conflict. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken virtually participated in the same. The meeting also saw European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announce a new Ukrainian aid fund of EUR 1.2 billion that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called “timely”. (“Ukraine-Russia crisis: Attack will have ′consequences,′ EU and US warn,” Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022)

Ireland: Russia to hold live-fire naval exercise off the coast of Ireland 

On 24 January, Ireland informed Russia that it was not welcome to host a live-fire naval exercise off its coast. Ireland has a long-standing policy of military neutrality but keeping the rising tensions in mind and with Russia's troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, it chose to decline Moscow’s notification. But, Ireland's Defence Minister Simon Coveney said that the country did not have the power to stop the exercises. He further said: "We don't have the power to prevent this happening, but certainly I've made it clear to the Russian ambassador in Ireland that it's not welcome." Russia's timing of holding live-fire naval exercises away from any of its permanent bases has raised many Defense pundits' concerns. The location of the activities would hamper flights to and from Ireland and would also pose a risk to the transatlantic data cables laid on the sea bed. ("Ireland tells Russia live-fire naval exercise is 'not welcome'," BBC, 24 January 2022)

A rare snowstorm in southern Mediterranean countries

On 24 January, a heavy snowstorm called Elpida paralyzed the capital of Athens overnight, as the government declared a holiday in parts of the country. Temperatures in the capital fell to minus 14 degrees Celsius; this was an unusual occurrence. But due to climate change, this was the second time the phenomenon happened in the last two years. Climate Change and Civil Protection Minister Christos Stylianides said: "We ask citizens to avoid leaving their homes. It will be a difficult night…the height of the snow is unprecedented in some areas." Albania also closed all its elementary and high schools due to the freezing temperatures, while Turkish authorities halted their flights at the Istanbul Airport due to heavy snowfall. ("Snowstorm brings much of Turkey and Greece to a halt," Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; "Heavy snow paralyses Greek capital, crews struggling to free stranded drivers," Reuters, 24 January 2022) 

ECONOMY

Ukraine: Global stock markets fall sharply following NATO announcement of military reinforcements

On 24 January, global stock markets fell steeply following a NATO announcement of additional forces being reinforced along its eastern flank. European markets saw a decline of 3.8 per cent which is considered to be the lowest since October 2021, as well as the biggest one-day decline in 18 months. While volatility rose, the UK’s blue-chip index fell by 197 points, losing GBP 53 billion off its share index. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies were affected by the sell-off in risk as bitcoin fell to a six-month low of USD 33,000. An Equiti Capital market analyst commented on the situation: “Traders continue to be in selling mode as fears mount surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation.” (Graeme Wearden, “Global stock markets dive as fears of Ukraine conflict rattle investors,” The Guardian, 24 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US and NATO dispatch further military support to Eastern Europe, infuriating Kremlin

On 24 January, NATO announced its decision to provide Eastern Europe with increased military aid in the form of fighter jets and ships. This move, along with the Pentagon’s deployment of 8,500 troops on heightened alert, is bound to anger the Kremlin given Putin’s earlier warning of a military buildup being a “red line”. Following a meeting with the leaders of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK and the EU, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “We agree that any further aggression by Russia against Ukraine will have severe costs.” He also commented on the extensive support allies were providing by contributing additional forces. However, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov alleged that the West’s “information hysteria” and “concrete actions” were escalating tensions in the region. (“Russia tensions: NATO bolsters deployments, angering Kremlin,” Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; Daniel Boffey, Andrew Roth, Julian Borger and Kim Willsher, “ US puts 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid fears over Ukraine,”  The Guardian, 24 January 2022; Quint Forgey, “US puts 8,500 troops on alert as Russia tensions ramp up,” POLITICO, 24 January 2022)

Norway: Day two of the Taliban talks in Oslo

On 24 January, the Taliban met with diplomats of the US, France, UK, Germany, the EU, and Norway in the capital to discuss unfreezing of the Afghan assets abroad. Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan said: "From these meetings we are sure of getting support for Afghanistan's humanitarian, health and education sectors." About USD 10 billion of Afghan assets were frozen abroad by the US and other Western countries in response to the Taliban taking over Kabul. The Taliban representative Shafiullah Azam said: "We are requesting them to unfreeze Afghan assets and not punish ordinary Afghans because of the political discourse." Afghan activists in Norway also confronted the Taliban delegation regarding the whereabouts of two women who were arrested for protesting against the mandate on wearing hijab. Diplomats of the UN took note of the issue and called on the Taliban to investigate and release the women. ("Taliban, Western envoys discuss Afghanistan crisis in Oslo," Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; "Afghan activists ask about whereabouts of two women as Taliban talks with West continue," Euronews, 24 January 2022)

Western countries advise families of embassy staff to withdraw from Ukraine

On 24 January, the US, UK, Australia, and Germany advised and informed the families of diplomatic staff to leave Kyiv as the situation at the Ukrainian border turned tense. Several other countries also announced caution against traveling to Ukraine due to the mounting tensions as Russia increases its buildup on the border with Kyiv. The US State Department's travel advisory said: "The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine's borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice." The UK also took measures even though its diplomatic staff were not in immediate threat and called back about half of the staff working in Kyiv. ("Ukraine: US, Western countries tell families of embassy staff to leave," Deutsche Welle, 24 January 2022; "Ukraine: UK withdrawing some embassy staff from Kyiv," BBC, 24 January 2022)


24 January 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #106

The Artemis Accords: Europe’s Dilemma

German Vice-Admiral resigns after remarks on Putin and Crimea; Taliban delegation in Norway for meetings with the West; Elections in Italy; Pope Francis encourages women's role in the diocese; 

Photo : Dato Parulava/POLITICO


IN FOCUS

By Harini Madhusudan 

The Artemis Accords: Europe’s Dilemma

On 04 January, an opinion in the POLITICO discussed the American push to get its allies on board with the Artemis Accords. Though a sizeable number of European Space Powers signed the Accords, France and Germany have kept away. 

While the US has been working with Paris and Berlin to increase cooperation on Outer Space, hoping to rope France and Germany into the Accords, the two countries do not seem convinced with the text. This lobbying is seen in the context of the US Space Race with China. Both Russia and China have also raised similar concerns about the accords and have declined to be a formal part of the Artemis Accords. The primary reason being, the Artemis Accords legally seeks to override the principles of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. Countries like Luxembourg have willingly participated in the Accords for the same reason, the intent to exploit the Lunar resources. 

Artemis Accords: A Brief Note 

The Trump administration introduced the Artemis Accords in 2020, with an objective to take humans back to the moon and to establish a permanent presence on the celestial surface. On 23 January, Israel became the fifteenth country to announce its participation with the Artemis Accords. The US allies have been asked to sign the 18-page document to gain access to NASA’s Artemis program that has outlined the course of human activities for the lunar surface in the upcoming decade. The signatories include Italy, the UK, Luxembourg, Australia, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, and Israel. 

First Dilemma: Artemis 2020 vs. OST 1967

Though the accords do not constitute any form of international law yet, there are clauses in the accords that override the norms of the Outer Space Treaty, and since the accords are bilaterally signed, they could cause legal issues in the future. Separately, there is also a fighting perspective among these countries of the need to ally with the US ambitions in Space. The Outer Space Treaty has in-place laws regarding ownership, liability, and sovereignty, which the Artemis Accords aims to flesh out. The text of the accords asks the signatory countries to agree that "extraction of space resources does not inherently constitute national appropriation," which indicates a signal for countries and companies to use them to their advantage. These deviations from the principles of the Outer Space Treaty have placed an ethical question for European countries. Besides space mining, the accords also propose designating “safe zones”. These safe zones would necessarily give exclusive ownership access to the countries, a stark difference from the OST 1967. 

Second Dilemma: Resource Exploitation 

Countries like France and Germany are staunch believers of the principles of non-appropriation listed in the OST. The Accords seek to override this principle by allowing themselves to utilize the resources for commercial purposes. This would not only allow various countries to exploit lunar resources, but would allow commercial industries to take advantage. Resource exploitation would be a very serious legal problem for space-faring countries in the upcoming decades. Ideally, the signatories should have opposed this clause in the Accords, as it is not in line with the main theme of what the text stands for. 

Third Dilemma: An Exclusive Role for Europe 

The new government in Germany hopes to introduce a Europe-specific ‘space law,’ that would include common standards for the use of resources. Since Luxembourg, Italy, and Poland have already signed, they would remain engaged with the Accords bilaterally. Additionally, the Europeans are also technologically engaged with the Artemis program since they are building the Orion service module. France is Europe’s space powerhouse and the French space experts have a strong sentiment against the Accords. The US has also promoted the accords outside of the “normal” channels of International Law. In its right, after the restructuring of the ESA in 2019,  the European side could represent their interests through the ESA while upholding the principles of the OST and not simply ally with the US. However, there would remain a divide within Europe – between the countries that have already signed the accords and the ones that await more clarity of the US intentions. In terms of collective participation, technological cooperation between the European Space Agency, and NASA would have to continue despite the European stance on the accords. 

One has to see the accords as a business deal that was made to ensure the US interests are upheld in their attempts to drive back to their lunar glory of the 1960s. However, without careful negotiation, the accords would open a Pandora’s box of legal issues once countries begin to engage with the resources and seek ownership of assets and locations on the Moon. It would also be essential for space-faring countries and the European region as a whole to ensure they have a role in the decision-making, and not have to play by the rules of the US, in this case. 

References:

Ilan Fuchs, “Artemis Accords: Israel soon to become a new member, EDGE by the American Military University, 21 January 2022.

Joshua Posaner and Giorgio Leali, “America’s new moonshot: getting Europe to sign up to its space rules, POLITICO, 04 January 2022.

Christopher Newman, “Artemis Accords: why many countries are refusing to sign moon exploration agreement,The Conversation, 19 October 2020.

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan, Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

ARMENIA 

President Sarkissian announces resignation

On 23 January, the President of Armenia Armen Sarkissian announced his resignation claiming to have failed in influencing the domestic policy during the crisis situation. A domestic political crisis arose from the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The clash began between Sarkissian and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during the war over removing the Chief of General Staff. Sarkissian was against the removal, but Pashinyan fearing a military coup proceeded with the removal. In Armenia, the President’s role is considered ceremonial and the Prime Minister holds the executive power to influence the processes of foreign and domestic policy. According to Sarkissian: “The president does not have the necessary tools to influence the important processes of foreign and domestic policy in difficult times for the people and the country.” (“Armenian president resigns, citing lack of powers,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2022; “Armenian president resigns citing 'difficult times' for nation,” France24, 23 January 2022)

ITALY

Presidential Elections 2022; Parliament begins secret ballot

On 24 January, the Italian Parliament initiated its voting process to select a candidate who becomes the country's next President. On 23 January, Presidential candidate Silvio Berlusconi withdrew his name from the race for Presidency as he failed to garner enough support for his candidature. Incumbent Prime Minister Mario Draghi is currently the most prominent candidate. However, Parliament members equate Draghi’s victory with political instability in the country. Rightist League leader Matteo Salvini said: "At this difficult moment, it would be dangerous to remove Draghi from the post of prime minister." The Presidential elections in Italy are conducted via a secret ballot, which will see more than 1,000 parliamentarians and regional representatives casting their votes. The process will take up to several days as the procedure involves three rounds of voting, and each round takes a minimum of four hours. (Angelo Amante, "Italy's parliament starts voting for president in wide-open race," Reuters, 24 January 2022; Angela Giuffrida, "Secret ballot to elect president of Italy begins as Berlusconi drops out," The Guardian, 23 January 2022; "Italy: Silvio Berlusconi drops presidential bid," Deutsche Welle, 22 January 2022)  

REGIONAL 

Ukraine and the UK accuses Russia’s plan to position former Ukraine minister

On 23 January, the Foreign Office of Russia planned to name the former Ukrainian minister Yevhen Murayev as a probable candidate for Ukrainian government. Upon which the UK government accused Russia’s plan and warned that it shall face serious consequences if it invades Ukraine. The UK intelligence found out the backend attempts of the Russian intelligence officers in contacting former Ukrainian leaders to take charge of Ukraine after a planned attack. While Russia has denied the allegations stating it as “disinformation.” Ukraine and the Western powers have objected to the act of Russia. (“Russia-Ukraine tensions: UK warns of plot to install pro-Moscow ally,” BBC, 23 January 2022; “Ukrainian politician mocks 'stupid' UK claims,” Reuters, 23 January 2022)

Ukraine: German Vice-Admiral resigns after remarks on Putin and Crimea

On 22 January, German Navy Chief Kay-Achim Schönbach resigned following his remarks of Putin “deserving respect” and Crimea being lost forever. The Vice-Admiral, addressing India’s Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, understated the possibility of a Russian invasion. Although the German government declined from an official statement, it distanced itself from Schönbach’s comment. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry summoned the German ambassador as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asked Germany to “stop undermining unity” provoking a “new attack” from the Kremlin. Later, Schönbach released an apology and clarified that the statement was a personal remark and “in no way reflect the official position of the defense ministry”. The Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht is said to have accepted Schönbach’s resignation. The Ukrainians are disappointed in Germany blocking Estonian attempts to provide weapons while refusing to send any themselves; they have, however, offered a field hospital. (“German navy chief Schönbach resigns over comments on Putin, Crimea,” Deutsche Welle, 22 January 2022; Philip Oltermann, “German navy chief quits after saying Putin deserves respect over Ukraine,” The Guardian, 23 January 2022; “German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments,” BBC, 24 January 2022)

COVID-19

Belgium: Protests against COVID-19 measures near EU institutions in Brussels 

On 23 January, Belgium experienced violent protests against COVID-19 restrictions on the streets of the Brussels. The capital saw 50,000 people taking to the streets to protest against the measures; the demonstrations were organized by a network involving Europeans United for Freedom and other groups. The police used tear gas and water cannons to control the protestors near the EU institutional area as protestors threw objects at the officers and even charged at them. The demonstrators lit an escalator on fire and shattered the exterior glass of the European External Action Service office. Three officers and 12 protestors were injured while 70 people were detained. Chairman of Europeans United for Freedom group Tom Meert said: "We do not deny that there are diseases. Our arguments would be the same in the case of a natural disaster or any other crisis: a country's policies must be deliberate and founded on the principles of the democratic rule of law." (Pietro Lombardi, "Rioters fight Brussels police, smash headquarters of EU foreign service," POLITICO, 23 January 2022; Johnny Cotton, "Belgian police fire water cannon, tear gas during COVID curbs protest," Reuters, 24 January 2022)   

GENDER

The Vatican City: Pope Francis encourages women's role in the diocese 

On 23 January, Pope Francis recognized the role of women in Catholic ministries by conferring them with the functions of lector and catechist. The conferring happened at a mass in St. Peter's Basilica. Reuters reported: "The ministries of lector and acolyte existed before but were officially reserved to men. Francis instituted the ministry of the catechist last year." Pope Francis' actions came as a reference for change as, over the years, conservatives have used rules and rigid regulations to block women in their dioceses and from taking up those roles. However, the Vatican also emphasized that this would not lead to women becoming priests and justified it by saying that Jesus only chose men as his apostles. Pope Francis has played a vital role in appointing women to senior positions in the Vatican departments. Pope Francis’ initiative has also encouraged women's role in the Amazon region where there is a shortage of priests. (Philip Pullella, "Pope confers lay ministries on women, formalising recognition of roles," Reuters, 23 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US State Department asks diplomats’ families to leave Kyiv; issues travel advisory

On 23 January, the US State Department asked families of US diplomats residing in Kyiv to begin leaving the capital. Releasing a travel advisory on its website, the State Department cautioned against travelling to Ukraine given the “increased threats of Russian military action” along with COVID-19. A voluntary departure for embassy employees, funded by the US government,  has also been arranged. The Department officials clarified that the move was not an evacuation and that the embassy would continue functioning with the Charge d'Affaires Kristina Kvien staying back. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called the move “premature and a manifestation of excessive caution”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov extended gratitude to the US for its USD 200 million worth of defense aid that reached the country. (“US orders families of Kyiv embassy staff to leave Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2022; Jem Bartholomew, “US embassy in Ukraine 'requests staff evacuation' amid war fears,” The Guardian, 22 January 2022; “Ukraine receives second batch of US weapons in Russian stand-off,” Reuters, 24 January 2022; David Shepardson and Paul Sandle, “US tells diplomats' families to leave Ukraine, weighs troop options,” Reuters, 24 January 2022)

Norway: Taliban delegation in Oslo begins talks with Afghan civil society members

On 23 January, the Norway Foreign Ministry announced an all-male 15-member Taliban delegation to have begun talks with Afghan civil society members in Oslo. Focused on human rights, the talks are a precursor to meetings set with Western leaders. Following the talks, a Taliban official commented that the meetings were an effort to “legitimize the Afghan government”. He added: “This type of invitation and communication will help the European community, the US or many other countries to erase the wrong picture of the Afghan government.” An activist attending the meeting expressed that the meeting resulted in a positive outcome with the Taliban “patiently” listening to their concerns. However, multiple protests related to the event were seen in Norway, London and Toronto. (“Afghanistan: Taliban envoys start talks in Norway,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2022)

Germany: Israel’s Cabinet orders State Commission to look into corruption case in naval vessel purchase

On 23 January, Israel’s Cabinet ordered an investigation into a corruption case in the purchase of submarines and warships from Germany. So far, Israel has purchased naval vessels worth EUR 1.76 billion from Germany between 2009 and 2016. Those close to former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are suspected to be involved in the submarine affair, which is known as Case 3000 in Israel. Netanyahu has called it the most serious corruption scandal in the country’s history. The investigation has been handed over to the State Commission, which will focus on the procurement and not investigate the defendants. (“Israel to probe purchase of German submarines under Netanyahu,” Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2022)

 


22 January 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #105

Spain's Menstrual Leaves: Progressive or Regressive?

Cyberattack on Red Cross; Blinken meets Lavrov in Geneva; US and NATO to conduct naval drills

Photo : Natalie Leung/CNN


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews 

Spain's Menstrual Leaves: Progressive or Regressive?

On 30 December 2021, The Guardian published an article on local administrations in Spain increasingly implementing menstrual leaves. There have been growing debates across Europe around the provision of menstrual leaves, especially since Italy tried to legislate a policy on the same in 2017. 

Spain: Slow but steady steps

Following the approval of menstrual leaves in Spain’s Catalan city of Girona, the town’s Deputy Mayor said Maria Àngels Planas said: “Girona is known for many things and I think today we’re adding a new item to the list as we pioneer the approval of menstrual leave… We are eliminating the taboo that exists around menstruation and the pain that some women suffer – that we suffer – during menstruation.” Girona’s policy provides eight hours of menstrual leave a month for women, trans men and non-binary employees experiencing discomfort during periods. However, this time has to be recovered within three months. This was done in an attempt “to avoid any discrimination based on sex”. Other municipalities like Ripoll, Castellón de la Plana and Les Borges Blaques soon followed suit.

The Conflict

Menstrual leaves are highly debatable on multiple grounds; two are provided below.

First, the definitions. Differences exist in defining leaves as well as what constitutes “period pain”. Claims include those stating personal leaves should be provided to everyone, irrespective of gender. There remain concerns on whether sick leaves are inclusive of period leaves – why should there be a separate leave for periods? Meanwhile, women claim they are not “sick” when menstruating as it is a “normal, biological process,” and cannot be categorized under sick leaves. 

Second, implications to women’s rights. Feminists remain disputed on the matter as they question whether the move is a step forward or backwards. They feel the concept is “insulting” as it “reaffirms that there is a biological determinism to the lives of women". A generational gap also exists as few older women refuse the period leaves saying, “if we suffered back then, women now should too”. Meanwhile, it is important to note that gender equality cannot be completely based on the principles of equality; equity has to come into play. Needs have to be analyzed on the basis of fundamental biological differences between genders. 

Issues to be addressed

First, limited data. Given the amount of data available on menstrual leave policies worldwide, it is difficult to state whether they are a success or not. However, it is no secret that supporting employees and providing them with a safe space to discuss concerns leads to increased respect implying more productivity. 

Second, the sectoral divisions. Even if period leaves were to be implemented, only those from the organized sector would benefit from it. The informal sector would be cut off from this primarily due to ignorance and lack of awareness. 

Third, acknowledging the stigma. For an issue to become one, it has to be discussed. The taboo that surrounds the reality of menstruation has largely kept it far from the domain of public dialogue. Period leaves may or may not be the answer. Nonetheless, talking about it puts periods and the pain associated with it on the political agenda. Removal of shame and stigma is extremely important in creating a gender equality picture. As Rose George writes in The Guardian: “When the silence about period pain is still so loud, talking is a decent start.”

Fourth, overcoming the taboo. In Asian countries with menstrual policies enshrined in labour laws, women avoid using them as they fear being considered “weak”; they are hindered by the possibility of not being employed or promoted due to the implementation of such policies. In the West, there is a desire to achieve the ideal but the action towards the same is largely lost in debate and thus, absent. This can be attributed to the taboo prevalent regarding menstruation. The question that, thus, arises is whether the problem is women, their biological structure or the internalized stigma?

References: 

Ashifa Kassam, “Spain's public sector trailblazers seek to lead way on menstrual leave,” The Guardian, 30 December 2021.

Julia Hollingsworth, “Should women be entitled to period leave? These countries think so,” CNN Business, 21 November 2020.

Tanika Godbole, “India: Zomato′s ′period leave′ sparks debate on gender, menstruation,” Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2020.

Rose George, “Menstrual leave: a workplace reform to finally banish the period taboo?,” The Guardian, 28 June 2018.

IN BRIEF  

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

AUSTRIA

Austria warns to take legal steps against labelling of nuclear energy as green

On 21 January, Austria is considering taking legal steps to fight against the labelling of nuclear energy as “green.” In the recent announcement by the EU, it stated its taxonomy plans, where it aims to direct investments into sustainable energies. Under the plan, the EU proposed to label nuclear energy as green to ease states and the private sector to invest money into the nuclear sector. It has created a divide amongst the EU as half of its member states have opposed the proposal. The Austrian Climate and Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler has warned that if the European Commission goes ahead with the proposal, then Austria will opt for legal steps. Along with Austria, Luxembourg, Spain, and Denmark have joined the appeal and have urged Germany to join the same. (“Austria, Luxembourg eye legal steps in EU nuclear energy row,” Deutsche Welle, 21 January 2022)

GERMANY

Berlin denies to permit to Estonia in exporting weapons to Ukraine

On 21 January, in the news conference, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany government will not support the export of lethal weapons. Similarly, Berlin has taken the same stance in blocking Estonia from exporting German origin weapons to Ukraine. Recently, to support Ukraine in the ongoing crisis with Russia, the allies of the NATO, the UK and Poland have agreed to directly export weapons to Ukraine. While Berlin has denied as it fears delivery of weapons can escalate the conflict situation, the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have announced to supply the US-made stinger missiles to Ukraine. (“Germany blocks Estonian arms exports to Ukraine: report,” Deutsche Welle, 21 January 2022)

GENDER

Pope Francis pledges justice for victims abused during Benedict XVI papacy

On 21 January, Pope Francis promised justice to the victims who suffered sexual abuse in the Catholic Church that occurred between 1970 and 1980. The report  highlighted sexual abuse in the Munich diocese that criticized his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI's handling of several abuse cases when he was archbishop. Pope Francis said: "The church, with God's help, is carrying out the commitment with firm determination to do justice to the victims of abuse by its members, applying with particular attention and rigor to the canonical legislation envisaged." The report's authors suggested that the cardinal's mishandling of the cases amounted to misconduct, and the prosecutors in Munich are now examining 42 cases to determine if there was wrongdoing by the church. A spokesperson for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the report "clearly and shockingly shows once again the scale of the abuse and the breaches of duty by church dignitaries". ("Pope Francis pledges justice for abuse victims after report faults Benedict XVI," Euronews, 21 January 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Cyberattack on Red Cross leaves almost half a million vulnerable

On 19 January, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Geneva announced that they had been hacked and the hackers gained access to information about 515,000 people. ICRC's Director General Robert Mardini said: "An attack on the data of people ICRCwho are missing makes the anguish and suffering for families even more difficult to endure…We are all appalled and perplexed that this humanitarian information would be targeted and compromised." His comments came after the hackers accessed sensitive information on people who had fled conflicts, migrated, were missing, or in detention. ICRC's spokesperson Crystal Wells issued an appeal, saying: "Your actions could potentially cause yet more harm and pain to those who have already endured untold suffering…Please do the right thing. Do not share, sell, leak, or otherwise use this data." ("Red Cross' cyber attack exposes data of 515,000 vulnerable people," Euronews, 21 January 2022; "Hacking attack on Red Cross exposes data of 515,000 vulnerable people," The Guardian, 19 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

US along with NATO to hold maritime exercise in the Mediterranean Sea

On 22 January, the United States and the NATO partners announced to conduct a 12-day maritime exercise called as “Neptune Strike 22” in the Mediterranean Sea from 24 January. The naval drills aim to test the maritime capabilities of the NATO, as Russia announced its plans to exercise in January and February from the Pacific to the Atlantic Sea. According to the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the decision to conduct the exercise is to reassure Europeans as tensions grow with Russia. (“NATO to hold major naval drills in the Mediterranean Sea,” Deutsche Welle, 22 January 2022)

Blinken meets Lavrov in Geneva; calls talks "constructive and useful"

On 21 January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva. Although there were no significant breakthroughs in the discussion, they called the talks useful and agreed to maintain dialogue to resolve the crisis. Blinken said: "It can choose the path of diplomacy that can lead to peace and security, or the path that will lead only to conflict, severe consequences and international condemnation." Meanwhile, Lavrov said: "I can't tell you if we're on the right track or the wrong track. We'll understand this when we receive the American response on paper to all the points in our proposal." Blinken said the US agreed to: "to meet again after Russia has had an opportunity to look at this paper and then we'll see where we go from there."("US to respond to Russia's NATO demands' next week', Lavrov says after Geneva talks," Euronews, 21 January 2022; Simon Lewis, "US and Russia agree to keep talking after meeting on Ukraine," Reuters, 21 January 2022)

Iran: Benjamin Brière's case to go on trial soon 

On 20 January, as reported by BBC, the French citizen Benjamin Brière’s lawyer Saeid Dehghan said: “A French tourist who has been held in Iran since 2020 charged with espionage has gone on trial.” Brière was arrested in 2020 for flying a drone near the Iran-Turkmenistan border and was charged with spying and acting against the Islamic Republic. If he is convicted, Brière will be sentenced to prison or be included in a prisoner exchange. Dehghan said: "The trial was held behind closed doors at branch 4 of the Revolutionary Court in Mashhad city." Rights groups worldwide have accused Iran of using such prisoners to extract concessions from other countries. His trials are happening when the US, Iran, and France discuss the restoration of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, which was abandoned in 2018. ("French tourist Benjamin Briere goes on trial in Iran for espionage," BBC, 21 January 2022; "Verdict in Iran's trial of jailed French tourist likely within days - lawyer," Reuters, 20 January 2022)


21 January 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #104

The Ukraine Crisis: Challenges and Ambitions

Austria becomes first EU country to pass vaccine mandate; Serbia cancels lithium mining plans; French Parliament denounces genocide by China against Uyghur Muslims

Photo : Ukrainian Ministry of Defence


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine Crisis: Challenges and Ambitions

What happened? 

On 10 January, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg invited Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olga Stefanishyna, to NATO Headquarters. The minister was called to discuss ahead of bilateral talks between the United States and Russia and attend the NATO-Russia Council meetings on 12 January and a meeting of the OSCE on 13 January.

On 19 January, the US secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s President and discussed the viewpoint of the US in dealing with a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine. According to the statement: “As much as we are all focused on Ukraine and our own commitment to its sovereignty, to its territorial integrity, to its independence, I think you all know very well that this is in a sense bigger than Ukraine.”

On 21 January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to the US President’s Joe Biden comments on how a minor attack by Russia might weaken the response of the US. Zelensky tweeted back, saying: “There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones.”

Challenges 

First, there is no room for voice in dialogues. In the continuous discussions held between the US, the NATO, and Russia over the developing conflict, it was only once Ukraine was allowed to engage directly, which was during the OSCE meeting held on 13 January. Apart from that, the country has wholly side-lined from voicing its problems or negotiating with Russia.

Second, the confusing stance of the US. When it comes to dealing with Russia in the forefront, the position of the US is not promising for Ukraine in two ways. One, Ukraine does not approve the sanction plans of the US on Russia over the invasion. According to Ukraine, imposing sanctions cannot solve a military incursion. Two, Biden’s denial to send ground troops to Ukraine has glitched the confidence of Ukraine in the US.

Third, internal issues. One, the population resists. Ukraine consists of a majority of Russian-speaking people. Even after the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, few of them still have a sentiment towards Russia as their extended families still reside there. The split in the population is one of the internal problems faced by the Ukrainian government. Two, dealing with the oligarchs. They are a set of people present inside Ukraine with the ability to manipulate the operation of the government using their resources. Although the President has his anti-oligarch legislation on the agenda for this year, with the return of former President Petro Poroshenko, a pro-oligarch, the stakes for the internal clash are high.

Ukraine’s Ambitions 

First, territory as a priority. The Kremlin's policy has alienated Ukraine in the last eight years since the annexing of Crimea in 2014 and its involvement in the Donbas conflict. Therefore, the pro-west approach of the Ukrainian leader is to shield itself from Russia’s geopolitical dreams and achieve territorial integrity. 

Second, democratic ambition. Ukraine’s strategy to adopt democracy is to attract the west for support, and it is to become part of the NATO and the EU. Thereby, it will be able to strengthen and stabilize, politically, economically and mainly in terms of Security. In addition, it can position itself as a threat to Russia and by achieving democracy, it can prevent losing its territory.

References:

Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments,” BBC, 21 January 2022

Lally Weymouth, “Volodymyr Zelensky: ‘Everyone will lose’ if Russia invades Ukraine,” The Washington Post, 21 January 2022

Secretary Antony J. Blinken To Mission Ukraine Staff - United States Department of State,” U.S Department of State, 19 January 2022

Paul Adams, “Ukrainians wait as Russia faces off with the West,” BBC, 12 January 2022

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

SERBIA

Belgrade cancels lithium mining plans 

On 20 January, Prime Minister Ana Brnabić announced the cancellation of the Rio Tinto lithium mine plans after weeks of protests. Brnabić said: "We have fulfilled all the demands from the environmental protests and have put an end to Rio Tinto in the Republic of Serbia." The protestors had taken to the streets as they were concerned about the mine’s environmental ramifications in the lithium-rich western Serbian region. The move has also been influenced by the souring diplomatic ties between Belgrade and Canberra over the deportation of tennis player Novak Djokovic from Australia. The country might face a legal challenge from the company as it stated: "Rio Tinto is reviewing the legal basis of this decision and the implications for our activities and our people in Serbia." ("Serbia scraps plans for Rio Tinto lithium mine after protests," The Guardian, 20 January 2022; "'It's over': months of protests force Serbian government to scrap planned lithium mine," Euronews, 20 January 2022)

REGIONAL

EU Parliament to regulate live animal transports within and out of the EU

On 20 January, the EU Parliament ruled to regulate live animal transportation within the EU and non-EU states. The regulations come after the EU Parliament's fact-finding committee presented the results of an investigation held in December 2021 regarding the violations of the current rules on transporting live animals. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "The committee had called for transport times to be limited to eight hours by road and air and 24 hours by sea for animals intended for slaughter. This has been approved with exceptions." At the same time, a general ban on the transport of pregnant animals and newly born animals has not been accepted. But, animal rights organizations have been calling for a ban on the export of live animals outside the EU, citing unprofessional slaughtering of animals, which could have been an offense in the region. (Max Zander, "EU parliament restricts live animal transports," Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022)

COVID-19

Austria: Vaccine mandate passed by Parliament

On 20 January, Austria became the first EU country to legislate a vaccine mandate. The law which will come into effect in February, saw the Austrian parliament successfully passing it. The mandate requires all adults to be inoculated against COVID-19. Those denying the vaccinations will be fined up to EUR 3,600 from mid-March. Pregnant women and individuals with health conditions hindering them from being vaccinated will be excused from the mandate and the subsequent fine. Chancellor Karl Nehammer commented on the mandate: “Vaccination is an opportunity for our society to achieve lasting and continuous freedom, because the virus cannot restrict us any further.” (“Coronavirus digest: Austria becomes first EU country to pass vaccine mandate,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022; “Coronavirus: Austrian parliament approves mandatory vaccination order,” BBC, 21 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

UN General Assembly adopts resolution against Holocaust denial

On 20 January, The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution proposed by Israeli and German ambassadors that rejected and condemned any denial of the Holocaust. German ambassador to Israel Susanne Wasum-Rainer and the Israeli ambassador to Germany Jeremy Issacharaoff published a joint appeal to coincide it with the 80th anniversary of the Wannsee Conference. They said: "This resolution is meant to be a sign of hope and inspiration for all states and societies that stand up for diversity and tolerance, strive for reconciliation and understand that remembering the Holocaust is essential to prevent such crimes from happening again." The 193-member assembly, except Iran, agreed to the proposal without holding a vote. Germany’s UN Ambassador Antje Leendertse also mentioned how the General Assembly was revoking the idea of a strong message against the denial or distortion of historical facts as this could lead to harmful consequences and risk of repetition. ("UN General Assembly adopts German-Israeli proposal against Holocaust denial," Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022)

Ukraine: Sanctions imposed on four Ukrainians by the US Treasury

On 20 January, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four Ukrainian citizens for associating with Russia in destabilizing the country. The individuals targeted involve two current members of the Ukrainian parliament — Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn — and two former officials — Volodymyr Oliynyk and Vladimir Sivkovich. The Treasury released a statement, saying: “Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force.” The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, visiting Berlin, commented on the sanctions: “This action is intended to target, highlight, and undercut Russia's ongoing destabilization effort in Ukraine.” (“US imposes sanctions on four Ukrainians over Russia links,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022; Julain Borger, Luke Harding and Andrew Roth, “US accuses Russia of conspiring to take over Ukraine government,” The Guardian, 20 January 2022)

Ukraine: Zekenskyy responds to Biden’s comment on “minor incursion”

On 20 January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to US President Joe Biden’s statement on Russia conducting a “minor incursion” into the country. Zelenskyy took to Twitter and tweeted: “There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones." Later, in an attempt to provide clarity on the issue, Biden stated: “If any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion.” (“Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments,” BBC, 20 January 2022; “US imposes sanctions on four Ukrainians over Russia links,” Deutsche Welle, 20 January 2022) 

France: Parliament denounces genocide by China against Uyghur muslims

On 20 January, the French parliament passed a resolution that officially recognized China's treatment of Uyghurs as genocide. The resolution by the National Assembly read: "... officially recognises the violence perpetrated by the People's Republic of China against the Uyghurs as constituting crimes against humanity and genocide." The non-binding resolution also calls on the French government to protect the interests of the minority group in China and to take "the necessary measures within the international community and in its foreign policy towards the People's Republic of China." Socialist Party Chief Olivier Faure commented on China and the regime's atrocities against the Uyghurs and that Paris should refuse to submit to the curtailment of violations through propaganda by the country. Meanwhile, the EU Parliament had condemned the human rights violations in June 2021. ("French lawmakers officially recognise China's treatment of Uyghurs as 'genocide'," France24, 20 January 2022; "French MPs officially recognise China's treatment of Uyghurs as 'genocide'," Euronews, 20 January 2022)


20 January 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #103

Germany's conviction of a former Syrian Colonel: Implications

Finland Prime Minister Marin says membership application to NATO “very unlikely”; Antony Blinken visits Kyiv amid rising tensions; 

Photo : REUTERS\Thomas Frey


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Germany's conviction of a former Syrian Colonel: Implications

Raslan's conviction

On 13 January, a German court in Koblenz sentenced former Syrian Colonel Anwar Raslan to life imprisonment for crimes against humanity in Syria between 2011-2012. The ruling was considered a landmark judgment as it was the world's first trial that prosecuted state-sponsored torture in the country under the Bashar al-Assad regime. Raslan was caught in Germany while he was among other Syrian refugees who remembered him from the prison called Branch 251 in the capital of Damascus.

He was found guilty on 27 counts of murder, rape, and sexual assault. His case is also a first of its kind as it led to the implication of a former high-ranking Syrian officer while the Assad regime is still in power. Spokesperson for the Delegation of the EU to Syria said: "This verdict is part of the first trial worldwide on state-sponsored torture in Syria and an important step towards the fight against impunity and to secure justice and accountability in Syria."

Principle of Universal Jurisdiction

Under the law, grave crimes that involve human rights violations, war crimes, genocide, and torture can be prosecuted anywhere around the world. States may act to protect against these crimes as the issues can gravely affect the international community or the international order itself. As defined by The International Justice Resource Center, the principle also revolves around the concept of the Responsibility to Protect, which promotes the idea that the international community has a responsibility to assist a State in fulfilling its primary responsibility of protecting the lives and wellbeing of those within its territory.

The conviction also highlighted the limitations of international organizations and the restricted options left for victims to seek justice. The concept of the principle of universal jurisdiction goes back to the Nuremberg trials. A well-known case example of the principle is the Attorney General v. Adolf Eichmann.

Role of national courts 

Syria is not a signatory party to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in Hague; thus, it restricts the principles from being applied to the country. Apart from that, even if the case was suggested to the ICC by the UN Security Council (UNSC) , it would be blocked by allies of the Assad regime, Russia and China. Russia and China have been traditional allies of the government and prevent any ruling against the government in the UNSC using their right to veto.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet hailed the court's decision and said: "This is a clear example of how national courts can and should fill accountability gaps for such crimes wherever they were committed." The conviction would encourage national courts to step up to play decisive roles for crimes against humanity.  

Germany as a harbinger of justice 

Germany has always played a significant role in upholding the legal principle. Since the country has adopted the legislation recognizing the relevant crimes and authorizing their prosecution domestically, it has been a ray of hope to prosecute cases such as that of Raslan. Syrian opposition and rebel groups also praised Germany's verdict on Raslan but called for justice against more senior targets. Syrian Front for Liberation's party head Mustafa Sejari said: "Justice begins by holding and pursuing Assad and his top henchmen, aides, and supporters of his crimes."

The case is a first as it holds accountable a government in power that has been accused of crimes against humanity. Germany also used universal jurisdiction to intervene in matters of the Yazidis genocide in Iraq by members of the Islamic State, the crimes committed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and now against the Assad regime.  

References:

Erol Dogrudogan and Joseph Nasr, "Ex-officer jailed for Syrian war crimes after landmark German trial," Reuters, 14 January 2022.

"Syria: Statement by the Spokesperson on Anwar Raslan's conviction of crimes against humanity," European External Action Service, 14 January 2022.

Katrin Bennhold, "Former Syrian Colonel Guilty in War Crimes Trial in Germany," The New York Times, 13 January 2022. 

Ben Hubbard and Katrin Bennhold, "Murder, Torture, Rape: A Landmark Conviction on State Violence in Syria," The New York Times, 13 January 2022. 

"Universal Jurisdiction," International Justice Resource Center

IN BRIEF  

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

FINLAND

Prime Minister Marin: Membership application to NATO “very unlikely”

On 19 January, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin stated that the country applying for membership to NATO was “very unlikely”. During the interview with Reuters, she commented on the support Finland would provide via imposing sanctions on Russia if it were to escalate tensions. She said: “It would have a very substantial impact and the sanctions would be extremely tough.” Further stating the possibility of joining NATO in the future, Marin maintained: “Nobody can influence us, not the United States, not Russia, not anyone else.” She added that discussions on NATO would grow in years to come. (“Finland's PM says NATO membership is "very unlikely" on her watch,” Reuters, 20 January 2022)

REGIONAL

Poland: European Commission blocks funds to Poland over coal mine issue

On 19 January, the European Commission blocked the funds for Poland as the country’s leaders refused to pay the legal fines put on Turow coal mine. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) had ordered the mine which is located near the border of the Czech Republic to be closed down as it is found to be polluting the nearby Czech villages. Poland has refused to close down the mine citing it would adversely affect their economy. As per the ECJ it has levied a fine of EUR 500,000 per day on Poland continuing to operate the mine. Warsaw had also stated that the issue does not come under the purview of the EU and it cannot ask the country to close down the mine. (“EU to withhold funds for Poland over Turow coal mine,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2022)

COVID-19

The Netherlands: Cultural sector carries out creative protests in museums and concert halls

On 19 January, the culture sector in the Netherlands protested against the COVID-19 rules. While the cultural centers were asked to remain closed due to the fear of the spread of infection by the government, salons and gyms were allowed to stay open during the lockdown. This move prompted the cultural sector to open up museums and concert halls, where a part of the area was allotted for haircuts, yoga sessions, and manicures. Meanwhile, artists also performed Symphony in some historic venues such as the Concertgebouw and the Van Gogh Museum. According to the Van Gogh Museum Director Emilie Gordenker: “I understand that the government has opened gyms but... you need a mental gym, too, and a museum is a place where people are increasingly coming to find a little depth or reason for their life.” (“Dutch museums open as salons to protest COVID rules,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Telegram refuses to cooperate over investigation of a death threat post on its app

On 19 January, Germany warned Telegram of imposing tougher rules to restrict its operations . Recently, members of Germany's Querdenker protest movement, also called the “lateral thinkers,” posted a death threat to Manuela Schwesig via the Telegram messaging app. Schwesig is the Premier of the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The caption of the post read: “She will be taken away … either by a patrol car or by a hearse, but she will be taken away.” German authorities were not able to proceed with their investigation as Telegram refused to cooperate. This act has pushed the German government to threaten the app on imposing fine and tougher measures. (“Germany takes on Telegram to fight extremism,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

World Economic Forum: Scholz comments on Ukraine-Russia tensions

On 19 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz virtually attended the third day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) being held remotely in Davos. Deutsche Welle reported Scholz expressing Germany’s “clear commitment to the territorial integrity of Ukraine”. He stated: “The Russian side is aware of our determination. I hope it is also aware that the benefits of cooperation are significantly higher than the price of further confrontation.” Scholz added that “borders must not be moved by force". The chancellor also commented on the COVID-19 situation, saying: “Without a truly global immunization campaign, we will soon run out of letters in the Greek alphabet to name new virus variants.” This is the second year the WEF is being held online. (“Davos: Germany's Olaf Scholz says silence on Ukraine is not an option,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2022)

Ukraine: Antony Blinken visits Kyiv amid rising tensions 

On 19 January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He stated that the visit confirmed the US’ absolute support as Ukraine’s “security, its prosperity, its democracy, its fundamental right to exist as a sovereign independent nation” were being threatened by Russia. He commented: “Moscow has systematically sought to weaken Ukraine's democratic institutions, as well as to divide Ukrainian society using everything from election interference to disinformation to cyberattacks.” Blinken reiterated that the two countries had to remain united in their efforts against Russian attempts to divide them. He added that the Kremlin was acting with "no provocation, no reason," and said requested them to undertake a “peaceful path”. Blinken is expected to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on 21 January. (“Ukraine faces ′unprecedented challenge from Russia,′ say US top diplomat,” Deutsche Welle, 19 January 2022)

Biden comments on Ukraine-Russia border standoff; says Putin “has to do something”

On 19 January, US President Joe Biden commented on the Russian military build-up along the Ukrainian border during a press conference. He stated: “This is not all just a cakewalk for Russia militarily… They’ll pay a stiff price, immediately, short-term, medium-term and long-term if they do it.” Predicting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions, Biden said: “I’m not so sure he is certain what he’s going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.” Regarding the response to a Russian invasion, Biden added: “What you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do etc… There are differences in Nato as to what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba maintained that his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov was “avoiding” him. (Luke Harding, Andrew Roth and Julian Borger, “Joe Biden thinks Russia will attack Ukraine – but will face a 'stiff price',” The Guardian, 20 January 2022)


19 January 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #102

France: EU Foreign and Defense Ministers’ Meeting

Blinken to meet with Lavrov in Geneva; Roberta Metsola as new President of the European Parliament; Baerbock visits Moscow amid tensions;

Photo : MEAE/J.Sarago


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

France: EU Foreign and Defense Ministers’ Meeting 

On 13 January, the EU Foreign Ministers met at Brest in Brittany for a two-day ministerial meeting. The informal meeting was called for by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. Also referred as the Gymnich meeting, this gathering happens twice a year in the EU member state which holds the EU Council’s Presidency – now France.  

Following the above meeting, the Foreign Ministers’ meeting was held. A joint working session called the “Jumbo” format, which involves the Defense ministers of the member states was also held.  

The following four became the focus points of the above meeting. 

  1. The “Strategic Compass”.  

The EU’s draft white paper on defense called the ‘Strategic Compass’ was discussed in-depth while the technicalities regarding the same were simultaneously addressed. The policy paper intends to bring a unified stance on international security situations while preparing “Europe’s civilian and military capabilities to global challenges”.  

The policy draft which was originally presented on 15 November 2021 during a joint session of the EU foreign affairs and defense ministers. This policy has been worked on since the German Council Presidency in July 2020. The compass aims at incentivizing action with flexibility, investing in the EU defense capabilities and resources, strengthening partnerships while bringing about a strategic culture of a “shared perception of threats” combined with a “common strategic vision”. It is expected to be adopted via the European Council on 24 and 25 March. 

  1. The Russia-Ukraine border situation 

The German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht expressed the consequences Moscow would face if it were to invade Ukraine. However, she added: "We must exhaust all options to resolve this conflict." Meanwhile, Borrell stated: "The European Union is certainly ready to respond directly to any aggression but our preference ... is that of dialogue and negotiations.” There was also widespread support for conducting the Normandy Format talks to de-escalate tensions.  

  1. EU-China relations 

The economic pressure faced by Lithuania from Beijing gave way to the discussion regarding bloc’s relations with China. Member states backed Lithuania while maintaining the importance of the EU “to have the means to combat all forms of economic pressure to protect sovereign interests”.  

  1. EU-Africa relations 

Discussions on the bloc’s approach to Africa primarily focused on the upcoming summit of the bloc with the African Union (AU) on 17 and 18 February. Targeted sanctions against the Malian junta were also decided upon via the meeting.  

The Diminishing Presence of the EU 

On 05 January, following her meeting with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had stated: “There can be no decision on security in Europe without Europe.” In a week filled with diplomacy and negotiations to de-escalate tensions along the Ukrainian borders, the EU was largely absent. Be it the Geneva summit, the meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, or even the OSCE council meeting – the European Council failed to portray its significance. Sciences Po University’s Head of Research Jacques Rupnik commented on this absence: “This feels like the post-World War II period when the Americans and Russians were deciding on Europe's future — especially as this conflict is taking place right at Europe's doorstep.” 

The absence of the bloc in talks concerning European security raises a series of questions. Does the Kremlin not deem the EU significant enough to negotiate regional security with them? Does the decision-making power on European security lie elsewhere? What substantial measures have been undertaken by the EU regarding defense? Nevertheless, the EU seems to be badly in need of introspection as a regional organization. 

References:  

Press Release - Informal Meeting of Foreign Ministers (Gymnich),” Council of the European Union, 16 January 2022.  

US fears Russia planning ′false flag′ operation in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2022.  

Lisa Louis, “Ukraine crisis: A geopolitical chance for the EU?,Deutsche Welle, 13 January 2022.  

Foreign Minister Baerbock meets her EU counterparts in Brest, France,” German Federal Foreign Office, 12 January 2022.  

Informal Meeting of Foreign Ministers (Gymnich),” Council of the European Union, 12 January 2022.  

EU defence and foreign ministers meet in France over deadlock with Russia,” RFI, 12 January 2022.  

IN BRIEF  

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Lawmakers challenge Boris Johnson to resign over lockdown parties

On 19 January, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was challenged to resign by lawmakers over allegations regarding the lockdown parties. Johnson, who won with a huge majority in 2019, was found to be defending against the repeated accusations made by lawmakers. To bring about a challenge to leadership, it is necessary for 54 Members of Parliament to submit no confidence letters to the chairman of the party’s committee. It is said that 20 of the conservative lawmakers who had won their seats in the 2019 elections have planned to submit the no confidence letter and a few of others have said to have already written. Johnson has repeatedly based his arguments on various reasons, but the opponents have called for him to resign. (“UK PM Johnson faces growing pressure to resign,” Reuters, 19 January 2022)

SWEDEN

Sweden authorites spot drones flying around government building

On 17 January, Swedish authorities spotted drones flying over three nuclear sites, airports and the royal palace. It is said that the spotted drone was found to be circling the parliament and government buildings and the royal palace in Stockholm. The investigation has begun to trace the suspect behind the drones, but the authorities have not disclosed the details of the drones. According to the security agency Sapo: “The security service is conducting the investigation regarding the drone flights over our nuclear plants. Regarding other drone observations it's so far a matter for the police.” So far, the prosecutors have decided to keep an open mind in finding the suspect as the security alert comes with tensions building between Russia and Ukraine. (“Sweden drones: Sightings reported over nuclear plants and palace,” BBC, 18 January 2021)

REGIONAL

European Parliament elects Roberta Metsola as new President

On 18 January, the European Parliament elected Roberta Metsola as the new President after the death of David Sassoli. Metsola is a conservative Maltese lawyer and the first woman to hold the post in 20 years. Metsola is also the youngest person in the history of the EU legislation to be elected as the President; she was Vice President to Sassoli and took charge of the office as the acting President from 11 January. Accepting the office, she said: "I feel honored by the responsibility with which you are entrusting me." Metsola has been a member of the Parliament since 2013 and played a crucial role as a representative of Malta's center-right Nationalist Party. However, she has drawn criticism from the opposition Greens and the Left group for her stance on anti-abortion. Meanwhile, French left-wing member of the European Parliament Manon Aubry recognized that Metsola advocated for LGBTQ rights. ("Who is Roberta Metsola, the new president of the European Parliament?," Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2022; "European Parliament elects conservative Roberta Metsola as president," Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2022)

Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov dialogues with North Macedonian counterpart

On 18 January, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov met with his North Macedonian counterpart Dimitar Kovačevski on his visit to Skopje. The two leaders discussed the need for an improvement in bilateral relations as they said via a joint statement: "We have promised each other that we will use new energy to improve our relations with respect." Relations between the two countries turned sour after Bulgaria blocked North Macedonia's bid to join the EU in 2020. Bulgaria had argued that North Macedonia failed to keep its commitment in honouring a 2017 agreement regarding disputes over shared history and language. Euronews reported: "…both governments will have a joint meeting in Sofia next week to form cooperation groups in economic issues, infrastructure, European integration, trade, education, culture, and history." ("Bulgaria and North Macedonia agree to improve relations after talks," Euronews, 18 January 2022; "North Macedonia and Bulgaria agree to work on issues blocking EU talks," Reuters, 18 January 2022)

Germany's Annalena Baerbock visits Moscow amid tensions

On 18 January, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on her visit to Moscow. She held discussions with her Russian colleagues to ease tensions amid speculations that Moscow was preparing to invade Ukraine. She commented on the issue saying: "Each further aggressive act will have a high price for Russia, economically, strategically, politically…. Diplomacy is the only way." As reported by The Guardian: "Her visit is being watched warily by European, UK and US administrations for signs that Germany may revert to its traditional role of seeking independent dialogue with Russia in preference to firmness". Baerbock's visit came after three high-level diplomatic meetings failed to give a positive outcome; she has called for "bringing new life" to the Normandy format talks that involve Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France to deal with the crisis. (Darko Janjevic, "Germany's Baerbock says Russia troop buildup 'hard not to take as a threat'," Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2022; Patrick Wintour and Philip Oltermann, "Russia would pay 'high price' for attack on Ukraine, says German minister," The Guardian, 18 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to meet Russian counterpart in Geneva 

On 18 January, the US announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would meet with Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on 21 January. The announcement came at a crucial period as the US speculated that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time; White House spokesperson Jen Psaki commented on the issue: "We're now at a stage where Russia at any time could launch an attack on Ukraine." A US state department official also said: "The fact that Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed to meet on Friday in Geneva suggests that perhaps diplomacy is not dead." The department's comments came after a Russian diplomat earlier said that talks with the West were approaching a "dead end" as the three high-level meetings were inconclusive. (Julian Borger and Patrick Wintour, "US and Russia to hold talks on Ukraine in potential sign' diplomacy is not dead'," The Guardian, 19 January 2022; Michael Crowley and Anton Troianovski, "Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy," The New York Times, 18 January 2022)

The talks on the US aluminium and steel tariffs to take place without notice

On 18 January, the US and Britain planned to launch talks to settle the dispute on the US aluminium and steel tariffs. The announcement to the talks is expected to be said during the upcoming meeting on mental tariffs between the officials of the US and the UK. Although the announcement is said to not disclose the timeline to reach the agreement, the US Commerce Department spokesperson is yet to confirm on the plans of the declaration. According to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai: "when the time is right." Which means the talks are expected to happen without any notice. (David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, “U.S., UK to announce plans for formal talks on metals tariffs on Wednesday -sources,” Reuters, 19 January 2022)


18 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #101

NATO-Russia Council: What does it mean for Europe?

Eric Zemmour fined for hate speech; One year since Kremlin dissident Navalny’s arrest; Annalena Baerbock visits Ukraine

Photo : The New York Times/Doug Mills


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

NATO-Russia Council: What does it mean for Europe?

A brief background

On 12 January, the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) held its first meeting since July 2019 in Brussels. The talks were primarily scheduled to discuss the border issue of Ukraine. Russia, found to be assembling troops along Ukraine’s eastern border, has been viewed as a threat to both Ukrainian and European security. There have been demands from all sides – Ukraine, Europe and Russia. The US considers this as a serious and the issue of Ukraine has been the focus of Washington’s recent talks with Moscow.

To address the security situation of Europe while taking into account Russian demands, there have been a series of diplomatic talks held between the US and Russia; NATO and Russia; The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Russia.

Out of the above four meetings, this analysis looks at the NATO and Russia Council meet. This analysis intends to brings out the following three key factors with regard to the NRC. One, Russia’s determination to threaten the integration plans of NATO. Two, divided focus of NATO in addressing the problem of Ukraine. Three, the US's tactical stance to keep Russia on the edge.

Russian demands

First, Refusal of NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia. NATO's promise to accede Ukraine into the alliance has been pushed since 2008. However, the reason behind Russia’s demand for never letting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO is to prevent them from becoming anti-Russian proxy states.

Second, withdrawal of NATO military exercises from former USSR nations. Russia requires NATO to exit Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. According to few Russian leaders in the administration, Putin’s interests seem to lean towards geopolitical expansion over other existing issues. This is justified given Russia’s annexation of Crimea following the change in its leadership in 2014. Hence, Russia’s interest to modify the “post-cold war security architecture in Europe” is higher now than ever.

Third, a legal guarantee from NATO. According to Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never, never, ever becomes a member of NATO, we need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees.” Russia strongly demands a legal guarantee from NATO and the EU, stating that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. This shows a lack of trust between the two parties; it also ensures the Kremlin never loses power over Ukrainian politics. 

Europe’s Response

First, NATO. According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg: “Our differences will not be easy to bridge, but it is a positive sign that all 30 NATO allies sat down with Russia after two years.” The NATO allies have termed Russian demands to be unacceptable while suggesting more talks to reduce tensions. Apart from this, an alternative solution to Russia’s demand of withdrawal of NATO troops from former soviet republics, NATO has agreed to bring transparency in its military operations to prevent disastrous events, reduce space and cyber threats and also to focus on arms control.      

The US: What does it want, and why

On one hand, the US has disclosed its plans to impose mandatory sanctions on Russian leaders close to President Putin, on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) , the global banking transaction system. It has warned that it would order the Defense and State Departments to advance transfer of weapons and military equipment and also provide USD 500 million as security assistance to Ukraine.

On the other hand, it has shown readiness to Russia to negotiate on the mutual restrictions and scope of military exercises in Europe. Such an act draws confusion, whether the US is tactically using the security situation of Ukraine to balance out with Russia to counter the larger issue of China.

So, what does the above mean?

First, the lack of unity in Europe against Russia. The allies of the NATO are against the Russian military build-up, but when it comes to Nord Stream 2, with Europe going through an energy crisis, not all have strong opposition to Russia.

Second, the sidelining of Ukraine. Taking in the series of meetings, the representation of Ukraine or the opportunity to voice its concerns in the meeting has been drastically lower.

Third, NATO or the larger Europe does not have anything to offer Russia. Therefore, keeping the diplomatic talks in the loop is the only option to avoid the escalation of conflict on the Ukraine border.

Fourth, the US offer to Russia. Russia is not just assembling its troops on the Ukraine border, but has begun to send its forces from eastern military district, which is a warning sign for NATO to be ready. The US move to hit Russia with strict sanctions is convincing, but the scope of negotiation with Russia to reduce down the existing NATO military troops in Europe is inciting fear. 

References:

Russia and the West meet for a crucial week of diplomacy,” The Economist, 15 January 2022.

Russia, NATO Fail to Resolve Differences in Ukraine Talks,” The Wall Street Journal, 12 January 2022.

NATO open to more talks with Russia amid Ukraine tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 12 January 2022.

IN BRIEF  

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

FRANCE

Presidential candidate Zemmour fined for hate speech 

On 17 January, a court in France fined far-right French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour an amount of EUR 10,000 for hate speech. Zemmour was fined for the comments he made back in September 2020 on CNews, where he used to work as a pundit. While answering a question regarding the knife attacks by a young radicalized Pakistani immigrant in Nice, he replied: "They have nothing to do here. They are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that's all they are. They must be sent back and they must not even come." Zemmour, known for his anti-Islam and anti-immigration views, has earlier been convicted for hate speech twice. ("Eric Zemmour: Far-right candidate found guilty of hate speech," BBC, 17 January 2022; "Far-right French presidential candidate found guilty of racist hate speech," The Guardian, 17 January 2022)

RUSSIA

Marking one year since Navalny’s arrest

On 17 January, Kremlin dissident Alexei Navalny marked a year since his arrest at the Moscow International Airport which followed a two-and-a-half-year prison sentence for violating parole conditions on fraud charges. On the anniversary, Navalny took to Twitter and expressed his lack of “regret” regarding his decision to return to Russia, even though it meant a second arrest. He added: “Having served my first year in prison, I want to tell everyone exactly what I shouted to those gathered outside the court when a convoy led me to a police van: Don't be afraid of anything… Why live your whole life in fear, and even to be robbed, if you can arrange everything differently — more fairly.” Many international and regional actors called for the release of Navalny; including Amnesty International and the EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell. (“Alexei Navalny says he has ′no regrets′ 1 year since arrest,” Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022; “EU urges Moscow to free Navalny on anniversary of his arrest,” Reuters, 17 January 2022)

UKRAINE

Poroshenko back in Ukraine

On 17 January, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko returned to the country’s capital to undergo trial as he has been charged with high treason. On reaching Ukraine, investigators tried to subpoena him but Poroshenko declined from accepting the documents. Thousands of supporters had gathered outside the airport as the former President addressed the crowd, saying: “[The authorities] are setting us back 10 years. We’re here not to defend Poroshenko, we’re here to join forces and defend Ukraine. United Ukraine is strong, and a strong Ukraine is capable of pushing back (against) Putin… Now I'm heading to the court where we'll give them a fight.” The court placed his bail at UAH 1 billion and asked him to wear an electronic tracing bracelet. If convicted, Poroshenko faces a prison sentence of 15 years. (Ukraine: Ex-President Petro Poroshenko returns to face treason charges,” Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022; Luke Harding, “Former Ukraine president returns to Kyiv to face treason charges,” The Guardian, 17 January 2022)

REGIONAL

Ukraine: Baerbock’s two-day visit

On 17 January, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Ukraine. During her visit, she said: "... we are ready to have a serious dialogue about joint agreements and steps that bring more security for everyone in Europe, Russia included.” Her comments followed Russia increasing its troop buildup and military equipment along the Ukrainian border. Baerbock further emphasized that Kyiv would be involved and informed of any talks that are to happen regarding Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK government extended its support to Ukraine as it supplied Kyiv with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defense. British troops have been in Ukraine since 2015 and had committed to help rebuild the Ukrainian navy after Russia invaded Ukraine. The UK’s Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace spoke about the supply of weapons, stating: "Let me be clear: this support is for short-range and clearly defensive weapon capabilities; they are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia; they are to use in self-defence.” 

(Joseph Lee, "Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defense secretary," BBC, 18 January 2022; “Germany's Baerbock visits Ukraine amid rising tensions with RussiaDeutsche Welle, 17 January 2022)

United Resolve: Russia and Belarus plan joint military exercises in February 2022

On 17 January, The Guardian reported Russian troop movement towards western Belarus ahead of joint military exercises set between the two countries for February. Named the United Resolve, the Belarusian Security Council’s Head Alexander Volfovich stated that the troops were coming ahead of the drills. The Guardian stated this was a matter of concern for the West given that analyses made with reference to Russian invasion of Ukraine involved scenarios where the latter was captured via Belarus. Meanwhile, other theories maintained Belarus’ limited role in the conflict. Responding to the international concern regarding the movement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said: “Why are we and Russia being reproached for holding manoeuvres, exercises and so forth when you’ve come from far away?.. There are some hot-heads calling for war. We hear these statements.” (Andrew Roth, “Russia moves troops to Belarus for joint exercises near Ukraine border,” The Guardian, 17 January 2022)

Madrid: Scholz meets Spanish counterpart Sanchez

On 17 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez during the former’s visit to Madrid. The two leaders discussed the possibility of working together closely on the EU's fiscal policies. Sanchez said: "The chancellor and I note that we are entering a new phase in our cooperation at European level." He expressed this sentiment given the  similar vision both countries share on social and economic progress. The leaders also discussed the expansion of clean energy sources in the bloc, as Scholz expressed: "Spain and Germany are both very ambitious. We want to achieve fast progress in the expansion of renewables." ("German Chancellor Scholz and Spanish PM Sanchez discuss relaxing EU fiscal policy," Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022)

COVID-19

Germany: 70,000 demonstrators protest against vaccine mandate and restrictions

On 17 January, 70,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Germany to protest against COVID-19 measures in the country. Protestors brandished signs and banners to show their disapproval of the vaccine mandate and the new measures implemented to tackle the rising cases of Omicron. Large police contingents were present at the locations as counter-demonstrations also took place. The regions of Rostock and Bautzen saw police interventions as protests were either unregistered or failed to abide by health and safety requirements. Although other locations like Thuringia and Bavaria were comparatively peaceful, they saw people demonstrating in numbers of 21,000 and 14,000 respectively. Given the situation, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach suggested a lockdown while he also commented on the vaccine mandate and said: "I would prefer that we protect [the unvaccinated] with a general obligation to be vaccinated, rather than with restrictions for everybody in the spring.” ("Over 70,000 attend German protests against COVID measures," Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Germany’s Scholz and Chinese Li hold telephonic conversation

On 18 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz received a call from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledging China's readiness to work with Germany. Li talked about German and Chinese long-term relations and expressed that both countries were "responsible countries in the world, as well as supporters of multilateralism and practitioners of free trade". His comments came in light of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of German and Chinese diplomatic ties. (Joel Day, "China finds ally in Germany following 'below radar' meeting: 'Let's work together'," Daily Express, 18 January 2022)

Serbia: Djokovic returns to Belgrade following Australian deportation 

On 17 January, Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic returned home after being deported from Australia given he was unvaccinated against COVID-19. He was received at the Belgrade airport with fans chanting “we love Novak”. The Australian Immigration laws state that Djokovic cannot be provided with another visa for the next three years; however, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison stated: “[The ban] does go over a three-year period, but there is the opportunity for them to return in the right circumstances and that would be considered at the time.” The Australian Open, from which Djokovic was removed, began on 17 January in Melbourne. The top men’s tennis player's condition put at stake his 21st Grand Slam title. (“'You are our champion': Deported Djokovic welcomed home to Serbia,” France24, 17 January 2022; “Djokovic back in Serbia after Australia deportation over visa row,” BBC, 17 January 2022)


17 January 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #100

The 1350th Special Plenary Meeting of the OSCE Permanent council

Ukraine blames Russia for massive cyberattack; Peskov denies possibility of Russian invasion into Ukraine

Photo : OSCE/Vladimir Trofimchuk


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

The 1350th Special Plenary Meeting of the OSCE Permanent council

Poland taking over as the OSCE Chair

On 13 January, the 57-member Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) held a special plenary meeting in Vienna. The meeting was held in the historical city that marked Poland’s official take over of the council's chairmanship. Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Zbigniew Rau addressed the meeting and discussed a plethora of issues and agendas that Poland as the council chair would be focusing on in 2022. 

Ukraine-Russia military escalations discussed

The meeting was held in the backdrop of the escalating tensions; with the Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border and no sign of de-escalation in sight. Rau initiated addressing the military escalations in the meeting, stating: "It seems, that the risk of war in the OSCE area is now greater, than ever before in the last 30 years." He also talked about the possibility of a significant military build-up in the region. Finally, on the tensions, Rau stated: "For several weeks we have been faced with a possibility of a major military escalation in Eastern Europe." 

To better assess the situation and improve the security in the OSCE region, Rau revived the need for "finding peaceful solutions to regional and protracted conflicts". He also mentioned the need to reinvigorate the debate about European security by first committing to uphold the Helsinki principles in full conformity with international law. Lastly, focusing on the conflict in Ukraine, he appreciated the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, which made a significant difference and proposed the extension of the mandate beyond 31 March 2022. 

Responses from Russia and the US

Russian and US officials were pessimistic about the talks at the OSCE meeting as there was no breakthrough regarding the negotiations. Russia's envoy to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich said: "Most member countries preferred to look into the Polish priorities…The OSCE has a big agenda of its own, which has accumulated many systemic problems.." The US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said: "The drumbeat of war is sounding loud, and the rhetoric has gotten rather shrill."

Moscow felt more discontented as their demands to NATO and the EU were not discussed. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov expressed that the talks had reached "a dead-end or a difference in approaches". In response, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, concerned about the outcome of the meeting, said: "the option of fabricating a pretext for an invasion, including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine." This was similar to the concern raised by US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman who mentioned that the US was doubtful if Russia's actual intentions of coming to the table were in good faith or just a pretext to justify war. 

Other issues discussed 

Rau addressed divergent issues relating to the OSCE region. He highlighted a few, as he stated: "Protracted conflicts, military confrontation, radicalization, terrorism, together with ongoing erosion of arms control regimes, effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and profound violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms of individuals are leading to rising uncertainty, unpredictability, fragmentation and growing fears in our societies." He revived the Helsinki decalogue and maintained that issues should be dealt with a more proactive and positive approach. Furthermore, he reiterated the need to have a shared commitment to the people in the region and each other for building a future without conflict and war. 

References:

Jeremy Herb, Jennifer Hansler, Alex Marquardt and Kylie Atwood, "US warns Russia is sounding 'drumbeats of war' against Ukraine as crisis talks end with no breakthrough," CNN, 14 January 2022.

Thomas Escritt and Tom Balmforth, "Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war,Reuters, 14 January 2022.

"Russia sees no reason to restart talks on Ukraine crisis, threatens action after 'dead end'," France24, 13 January 2022.

"Russia has not received clear answer to its security proposals — envoy to OSCE," TASS, 13 January 2022.

"Polish OSCE chairmanship 2022 address by Minister of Foreign Affairs HE Zbigniew Rau at the OSC Permanent Council, Vienna,OSCE, 13 January 2022. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

ITALY

Italian fashion icon Nino Cerruti dies at age of 91

On 16 January, Nino Cerruti who is known for his Italian fashion was reported to have passed away at the age of 91 while being treated for hip operation. He created his own fashion designs and his designs remained kept at his grandfather’s textile factory situated in the town of Biella in 1881. After excelling at his family textile mill, he then switched into clothing business in the late 1950’s, later went on to revolutionize the fashion industry. It is said that in the 1980’s he expanded his works to designing clothes for top Hollywood actors for big time film festivals. (“Nino Cerruti: Italian fashion great dies aged 91,” BBC, 16 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

BBC to face fund shortage as culture secretary decides to freeze funds

On 16 January, In a recent news report by the Mail on Sunday, the Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries was reported to have decided on freezing the license-payer fees of BBC for two-years due to inflation rates exceeding five percent. The said decision will drastically impact BBC which will fall short of funds by EUR 2.4 billion and apart from this its competition with private funded channels such as Netflix will have a larger effect. According to the report, BBC has been in clash with the conservative government due to its left-wing bias. According to the Labour lawmaker and Culture Policy Chief Lucy Powell: “The prime minister and the culture secretary seem hell-bent on attacking this great British institution because they don't like its journalism.” (“UK to cut BBC funding by freezing license-payer fees,” Deutsche Welle, 16 January 2022)

UKRAINE

Ex-president of Ukraine to return despite treason charges

On 16 January, former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko announced his return to the country. Poroshenko, who is facing treason charges for supporting Russian-backed separatist fighters through illegal sale of coal, has now denied the accusations and has boldly said that he won't face detention. According to the critics, the return of the ex-president is seen only as a diversion to Russian invasion and the current administration is trying its best to keep away from the allegations against Poroshenko. (“Ukraine: Ex-leader Poroshenko to return amid treason charges,” Deutsche Welle, 16 January 2022)

REGIONAL

Peskov denies possibility of Russian invasion into Ukraine

On 16 January, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov appeared on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS”. He was cited by POLITICO as saying: “I'm a spokesperson to Kremlin, and I officially can tell you that there are no Russian troops on Donbas and on Ukrainian soil.” He further added that the Kremlin was hopeful of future diplomatic efforts, as he said: “We have to find out a combination to solve this problem, taking into account concerns of Russia.” However, he was quick to state the differing views held by Moscow and NATO. He stated: “... in general, in principle, we can now say that we are staying on different tracks, on totally different tracks, and this is not good, and this is disturbing." Although he refused to put a clock on the possibility of action, Peskov mentioned: “... not going to say that we will not deploy any offensive weapons on Ukraine's territory." (Maeve Sheehey, “Russia and NATO 'on different tracks' in negotiations, Putin spokesperson says,” POLITICO, 16 January 2022)

ENERGY

Russia’s Novak states energy crisis to be the EU’s fault

On 15 January, TASS reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak accusing the EU of having created the region’s energy crisis. He was cited by POLITICO as saying: “the short-sighted policy of the European Union and the European Commission, which for many years has deliberately moved away from long-term contracts, shifted its energy sector toward reducing dependence on by switching from long-term contracts to spot ones." Novak added that Moscow had completed its long-term contracts with the bloc and could not be blamed for orchestrating the present energy crisis. He added: “We delivered much more to Germany, to Turkey, to other countries that chose their volumes… Incorrect planning, short-term energy policy is a headache for European politicians, which they are trying to pass on to others.” (Karl Mathiesen, “Russia says 'short-sighted' EU has only itself to blame for energy crisis,” POLITICO, 15 January 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Ukraine: Russia blamed of massive cyberattack

On 16 January, following the massive cyberattack that hit the country, Ukraine's Digital Development Ministry released a statement that read: “All evidence points to the fact that Russia is behind the cyberattack. Moscow continues to wage a hybrid war and is actively building up its forces in the information and cyberspaces." The ministry also reassured the citizens of their personal data being unaffected and safe. The statement further read: “... not only intimidate society but also destabilize the situation in Ukraine by stopping the work of the public sector and undermining Ukrainians' trust in the government." (Zia Weise, “Ukraine blames Russia for cyberattack against government websites,” POLITICO, 16 January 2022)

Ukraine: Microsoft discovers disguised malware planted in Ukrainian government computers

On 15 January, Microsoft security specialists found disguised malware in many Ukrainian government computers capable of destroying data at the command of the hacker group. The detection comes after the recent cyber-attack of Ukrainian government sites of which Russia is suspected to be the culprit. As per Microsoft’s blog post: “The malware, which is designed to look like ransomware but lacking a ransom recovery mechanism, is intended to be destructive and designed to render targeted devices inoperable rather than to obtain a ransom.” (“Ukraine: Microsoft reports destructive malware after cyberattack,” Deutsche Welle, 16 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

US Senator comments on Putin’s agenda in Ukraine

On 16 January, US Senator Mitt Romney spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press”. During the course of the show he maintained that it was the responsibility of the West to limit Russian influence in the European region. He was cited by POLITICO as saying: “He's trying to reestablish what he had before. That can't be allowed to happen… [Putin]'s trying to take NATO apart — to weaken it. We need a strong NATO not just for Russia, but for the emergence of China.” Romney suggested the possibility of using the Nord Stream 2 as a negotiating tool to reason with Russia’s aggressive activities in the region. Romney said: “We should let him know that that Nord Stream 2 pipeline is not going to operate… He's not going to have that wealth if he does any action to overthrow the government in Ukraine — that's getting shut down.” (David Cohen, “Romney: Putin can't be allowed to rebuild the Soviet Union,” POLITICO, 16 January 2022)


15 January 2022 Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #99

Abortion Rights in Spain: “A Privilege, not a Right"

Valerie Pecresse urges for stronger EU borders; Poland military data leak not a concern; Brussels to back Lithuania over Chinese pressure;

Photo : REUTERS/Kacper Pempel


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Abortion Rights in Spain: “A Privilege, not a Right” 

On 04 January, France24 released a FOCUS on how abortions are regarded in Spain. Interviews conducted included those women who got abortions, members from pro-life groups, medical staff, as well as Cortes Generales (Parliament) members.  

Fact-Check 

Spain has 50 provinces; 11 from these carry out abortions. In these 11 provinces, only 15 percent of public clinics perform the deed while 200 private clinics have been subsidized to perform 85 percent of the abortions. Sometimes, women have to even travel across islands to find a clinic that would perform abortions for them.  

“Fundamental freedoms at stake” 

If the actual availability of clinics that perform abortions were not enough of an issue, pro-life groups make the lives of these women a living hell. The amount of stigma they are subjected to is traumatizing. Surprisingly, those protesting abortion are primarily constituent of women; even doctors are significant supporters. Critics to abortion argue that fundamental rights are at stake when women choose to kill their foetuses. Activist groups such as ‘40 Dias por la vida’ (40 Days for life), a Catholic entity, claim that they go against the fundamental right of respecting religious belief. 

Some of these groups protest outside clinics that carry out abortions, indirectly harassing women arriving at these clinics. One of such a demonstrator said: “We just come to pray. That’s the most powerful weapon we have.” Another widely used argument is that of a conscience clause which rejects the termination of pregnancies.  

A Stigmatized Health Sector 

Even with the medical community, abortions are stigmatized and the conscience clause is largely used. However, the medical training in Spain lacks the basic education provided in terms of carrying out abortions, which is obligatory elsewhere. Dator Clinic was the first clinic in the country to carry out abortions. The clinic’s Psychologist Sonia Lamas Millan states: “No Spanish region is training health professionals. The new generation isn’t trained to take over duties.”  

Stigmatization, however, is not limited the women undergoing abortions; it extends to those health personnel carrying it out. If a doctor or a resident expects to change their specialization after having worked in an abortion clinic, they would find it a dreadful experience. Once an “accomplice” to abortion, their resumes are tainted and so are they reputations. 

Government Measures 

The ruling Socialist (PSOE) government plans to list out ‘conscientious objectors’ that would ensure enough doctors were available across the country to guarantee the realization of a right. It also plans to ban or put an end to the tactics of those pro-life groups that demonstrate outside clinics. In fact, a bill has been tabled which would consider such acts as harassment. The violation of this would lead to three months to a year in prison. Proposed by PSOE Deputy for Jaen (Andalusia), Laura Berja, the bill led to heated discussions between the left and the right entities in the Parliament.  

Critics, including pro-life demonstrators, state that passing the bill threatens the freedom of assembly, of expression, and for the right to worship. One of the activists claim: “You can’t be sent to prison or fined for praying.” Berja responds to this with her Cortes Generales statement: “Pray as much as you want but let women exercise their rights!” The Socialists intend to pass the bill in 2023, hopefully eradicating one obstacle for those women choosing abortion.  

A Privilege, not a Right 

Those women who do manage to terminate their pregnancies, are essentially shunned from the community. The stigma that exists around the idea, let alone the act of abortion, is huge in Spain. Therefore, those that do get abortions guard this information to great lengths. One woman, who did terminate her pregnancy stated: “If someone finds it difficult to access a right, it’s not a right; it’s a privilege.”  

References: 

Sarah Morris, “Abortion in Spain: Women struggle to access treatment despite it being legal - Focus,” France24, 04 January 2022. 

IN BRIEF  

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

FRANCE

Presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse urges for stronger EU borders

On 14 January, French Presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse visited Greece. During the visit, she stated that the EU would need stronger borders to deter migration into the bloc. She said: "There is no Europe without borders, and the question of borders is absolutely key today to building European power." Pecresse is the presidential candidate for the conservative Republicans party and has been seen as a challenger to the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in the elections that are to be held in April. Pecresse has often made her tough stance on migration clear; she stated: "It is not at all fortress Europe, but it is not a supermarket Europe either. When we have required entry points, that means there are doors. There are doors, and you must go through the door, and for me, that is my European model." She further praised Greece for its methods and measures to reduce the number of asylum seekers coming through the Aegean sea. ("French presidential candidate says strong EU borders needed," Euronews, 14 January 2022)

RUSSIA  

Russia's Federal Security Service arrestshackers of REvil for launching cyber-attack on Colonial Pipline

On 14 January, the US “welcomed” the Russian arrest of Revil from Ransomware group who were responsible for the attack on the colonial pipeline last spring. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) also found that REvil was behind the cyber-attack in Kaseya which affected close to 1,000 businesses including Swedish supermarket chain. The arrest was possible due to FSB’s search raids, where it recovered more than EUR 4.9 million worth cash, cryptocurrency and cars. According to the officials, the operation took place upon the order of US authorities who urged for the arrest of the group’s leader. (“US 'welcomes' Russian arrests of REvil ransomware gang,” Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Poland: Defense Ministry says military data leak not a concern 

On 14 January, Poland's Defense Ministry stated that the massive military leak was not harmful as the database only contained publicly available information. The Ministry released a statement, saying: "We want to stress that the publication of the data does not mean any danger to the state's security or to the functioning of Poland's Armed Forces." The Ministry also mentioned that there was no IT system security breach and blamed it on the negligence of an employee. However, as cited by Deutsche Welle: "Opposition parties… weren't convinced and demanded Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak's resignation." Furthermore, according to a Polish web portal Onet.pl, the Russians and the Chinese had downloaded the information as the data mentioned details on equipment purchased by Poland from countries like Germany, Israel, and the US. ("Poland: huge military data leak has only public information," The Washington Post, 14 January 2022; "Poland's military not concerned about database leak," Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2022)

Ukraine: The US and NATO accuses Russia on the recent cyber-attack

On 14 January, 70 government websites in Ukraine were hit by a massive cyber-attack with the hacked sites displaying a warning message that read: "Ukrainian! All your personal data has been uploaded onto the public internet… This is for your past, your present and your future…prepare for the worst.” The Ukraine government has suspected Russia to be behind the attack due to two reasons. The Russian media reporting it ahead of Ukraine and the serious errors in the Polish language message as reported by the Poland government. So far, NATO and the US have criticized the attack and offered to support Ukraine in its recovery. Apart from this, NATO has proposed an agreement to augment cyber cooperation with Ukraine, where the latter will get access to NATO’s malware information sharing platform. According to Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby: “It has pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct what we call a false-flag operation, an operation designed to look like an attack on them or Russian speaking people in Ukraine as an excuse to go in.” (“Ukraine cyber-attack: Russia to blame for hack, says Kyiv,” BBC, 14 January 2022)

Meta to face lawsuit in the UK for exploiting personal data of user

On 14 January, Facebook, now known as Meta, faces a EUR 2.7 multi-billion case for imposing terms and conditions which exploit personal data of users, filed by the UK government. According to Competition Expert Dr Liza Lovdahl Gormsen: “Facebook is dominant in the market, the social network, so they have a special responsibility, I don't think exploiting users is having a special responsibility to behave in a way as if you are not dominant. They do it because they can, and somebody's got to stop that.” Meta has responded by saying that the services offered are chosen by people because of the value and meaningful control offered via the platform. (Pascale Davies, “Meta faces €2.7bn civil lawsuit over allegations it exploited UK Facebook users’ data for profit,” Euronews, 14 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Lithuania: Brussels to back Vilnius in its trade altercations with Beijing

On 14 January, the EU announced its decision to back Lithuania over its escalating trade clashes with China. EU's High Representative Josep Borrell said: "Notably in the meeting we talked about Chinese activities in Lithuania and the impact of these activities in terms of the EU as a whole. Member states expressed clear solidarity with Lithuania, and we discussed how we can actively press on with de-escalation in terms of this crisis." Lithuanian and Chinese tensions began when Vilnius, in May 2021, left the 17+1 group that China used as a medium to negotiate with the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). In November 2021, Lithuania approved the opening of a Taiwan representative office that further led to clashes between the two countries. China responded by restricting Lithuanian goods from entering the country and further escalated the trade war between the two. (Christopher Pitchers, "Brussels backs Lithuania in row with China over Taiwan," Euronews, 14 January 2022)


14 January 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #98

Geneva Talks: Three Takeaways

US Senate fails to pass Nord Stream 2 sanctions bill; Czech Republic's government win the customary vote of confidence; US diplomats infected with Havana Syndrome

Photo : REUTERS/Denis Balibouse


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Geneva Talks: Three Takeaways

On 10 January, top US and Russian diplomats met in Geneva under the Strategic Security Dialogue initiative. The US was represented by the Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman while Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov negotiated on Russia’s behalf. The bilateral meeting occurred during one of the tensest situations in East-West relations since the Cold War period. Nonetheless, the seven hour-long discussions did not see substantive breakthroughs. The inconclusive meeting came to an end with the parties hoping to maintain an open channel of communication. 

What did they discuss?

Although there was a substantial deviation from set agendas, given the media frenzy over the Russian military build-up along the Ukrainian borders, the primary intent behind the talks was to discuss arms control measures. Along these lines, the US proposed the prospect of reciprocal agreements on missile deployments while putting a cap on the size and range of military exercises. The US expressed its interest in discussing a return to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty after withdrawing from the same in August 2019. However, the larger potential of the initial structure was lost in an attempt to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine. The Russian security proposal, essentially a list of demands that both the US and NATO were presented with, was also discussed during the meeting. 

Takeaways

First, the inconclusive talks. Despite the detour, the meeting between the US and Russian delegations was a beacon of hope for Ukrainians and the larger international community. The two superpowers talking to each other in a direct manner was bound to bring a substantial change in the status quo favouring de-escalation. However, the “frank and forthright” talks, as Sherman put it, were disappointing. Concerning the de-escalation of the troop build-up by Moscow, she said: “I don't think we know the answer to that. We made it very clear that it's very hard to have constructive, productive and successful diplomacy without de-escalation.” The uncertainty voiced by Sherman was too hard to miss.

Second, the lack of commitments. Recognizing the US’ need for diplomacy, the Kremlin conducted talks concluding in no concessions from either side. The US was extremely disappointed with the Russian delegation neither committing to a de-escalation nor verbally assuring the same. As is the larger consensus, it seemed as though Russia was prepared to declare the negotiations a failure, even before the talks began. The calls for continued talks implies a protracted process; although the Kremlin agreed to this, they foresaw such an outcome and had stated they would choose to ‘act’ instead of ‘talk’, essentially avoiding prolonged talks.  

Third, principles to stay. The Russian demands to stop NATO’s eastward expansion and defy membership to Ukraine were outrightly rejected by Sherman on the grounds that it went against NATO’s “open-door policy”. Ryabkov responded with: “Unfortunately we have a great disparity in our principled approaches to this. The U.S. and Russia in some ways have opposite views on what needs to be done.” Bridging this gap will be an uphill climb.

What does it mean?

First, the open channel of communication. This essentially indicates a delay in escalation. As the US Information and Cybersecurity Expert Dmitri Alperovitch opined: “I think it's a very positive development because it could mean that we can go into potentially prolonged discussion… we would avoid war, so that I view as the best outcome that we could get out of the situation is to simply delay buy time for diplomacy to work.” 

Second, escalation threats. Despite the efforts at diplomacy, one stands to see whether the Kremlin would engage and escalate tensions along the Ukrainian periphery. The contradictory statements emerging from the Putin administration are confusing — threats have been issued alongside reassurances of “no intent to invade”. There is no doubt, however, that the Kremlin wants the West out of its “sphere of influence”. 

References:

Jennifer Rankin, Luke Harding and Julian Borger, Nato chief warns of 'real risk of conflict' as talks with Russia over Ukraine end,” The Guardian, 12 January 2022.

Ukraine tensions: US says Russia faces stark choice,” BBC, 12 January 2022.

Emma Farge, “US and Russia still far apart on Ukraine after Geneva talks,” Reuters, 11 January 2022.

Russia and US hold tense talks on Ukraine crisis,” Deutsche Welle. 10 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

THE CZECH REPUBLIC

Ruling government wins customary vote of confidence 

On 13 January, Euronews reported: "The Czech Republic's new conservative-led government won a vote of confidence in the lower house of parliament on Thursday in a mandatory ballot that every administration must win to govern." The three-party liberal-conservative coalition called "Together" came first with a 27.8 percent vote share and joined two other parties of the center-left liberal coalition to form the government. The winning alliance comprises the Civic Democratic Party, the Christian Democrats, and the TOP 09 party, who formed a larger coalition with Pirate Party and STAN. As cited by Reuters: "The new five-party ruling coalition won a combined 108 seats in the 200-member lower chamber, making it certain to win the confidence vote called after it took office last month." The opposition party ANO of former Prime Minister Andrej Babis lost the vote by a small margin of 27.1 percent of the vote share. ("New Czech governing coalition wins confidence vote," Euronews, 13 January 2022; "Czech lawmakers interrupt marathon debate over government confidence," Reuters, 13 January 2022)

GERMANY

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urges for continued dialogue with Moscow

On 13 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz commented on the ongoing talks between Russia, the United States, NATO and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Scholz urged for a “continued dialogue” with Moscow and said that engaging in any kind of military activity would be a costly affair for Russia, Ukraine and the US. He said: “We are very happy that soon the negotiators from all four sides will also meet again to start preparatory talks for this.” On the same day, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on the West to hold a strong stance against Russia and urged for unity amongst the European states for the Ukraine issue. She said: “If we Europeans are united and whole, then we can play our role in the different formats very, very strongly, a role that relies on toughness, but also on dialogue.” (“Germany sees need for toughness with Russia after European security talks,” BBC, 13 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Prince Andrew gives up patronages and affiliations to fight sexual abuse allegations

On 13 January, Britain's Prince Andrew announced that he would be returning all his patronages and military affiliations as he prepares to fight a sexual abuse case against him. Buckingham Palace released a statement, saying: "The Duke of York will continue not to undertake any public duties and is defending this case as a private citizen." The palace also mentioned Prince Andrew to have taken this step "with the Queen's approval and agreement". As cited by Euronews: "Queen Elizabeth's third child is being accused by Virginia Guiffre of sexually abusing her in 2001 when she was 17 and being trafficked by the late financier Jeffrey Epstein." She had launched legal proceedings against the Prince in August 2020, and the recent ruling by a US judge rejected his attempt to dismiss the case against him. ("Prince Andrew returns military affiliations and patronages as he prepares to fight sexual abuse case," Euronews, 13 January 2022; Ben Quinn and Caroline Davies, "Prince Andrew loses military roles and use of HRH title," The Guardian, 13 January 2022)

ENERGY

US Senate fails to pass Nord Stream 2 sanctions bill

On 13 January, the US Senate failed to pass a bill to impose sanctions on Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. As reported by Reuters: "The tally was 55 in favor and 44 against the bill that needed 60 votes to pass, a major hurdle in the 50-50 Senate. The vote spanned nearly seven hours as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer considered options on voting rights legislation." On the failure of not being able to pass the sanctions, Republican Senator Ted Cruz said: "Only immediately imposing sanctions can change Putin's calculation, stop a Ukrainian invasion, and lift the existential threat posed by Nord Stream 2." The recent bill was part of a more extensive set of White House-backed sanctions against Russia that were to be implemented if Moscow decided to invade Ukraine. On 12 January, other possible sanctions discussed by the Senate included those on Russian military heads, Russian President Vladimir Putin, political leaders, and financial institutions. (Timothy Gardner and Richard Cowan, "Cruz's Nord Stream 2 sanctions bill fails in US Senate," Reuters, 13 January 2022; Callie Patteson, "Senate to debate dueling Russia sanctions in case of Ukraine invasion," New York Post, 12 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

US diplomats working in Geneva and Paris infected with Havana Syndrome

On 13 January, four US diplomats operating in Geneva and Paris were identified with a certain neurological illness termed the ‘Havana Syndrome’. The syndrome, first found in 2016 in Cuba, has affected those diplomats, spies and Canadian staff working in Cuba. According to the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the US government is currently investigating the source of the illness. In a recent interview, Blinken said that he was going around the world to meet the employees of the State Department to study how the illness was disrupting their lives. He said: “To date, we don't know exactly what's happened and we don't know exactly who is responsible. We are working overtime across the entire government to get to the bottom of what happened, who's responsible.” (“'Havana syndrome': US baffled after new cases in Europe,” BBC, 13 January 2022)

Ongoing rounds of Russia-West talks show no progress

On 14 January, the talks conducted by the West on Ukraine from Geneva to Brussels and finally the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna came to an end. The talks brought out the grievances and concerns of both sides regarding Ukraine. However, the talks showed no progress as Russia had provided no assurances of withdrawing its forces from the Ukrainian border. According to the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “The main problem is the US and its NATO allies are not prepared under any guise, for any reason, which we have discussed and analyzed over and over, to meet our key demands to NATO.” (Paul Adams, “Ukraine crisis: Risks remain as Russia and West talk,” BBC, 14 January 2022)


13 January 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #97

P5 statement to prevent nuclear wars: Four takeaways

Johnson apologizes for Downing Street event; IEA head claims Russia to have caused European energy crisis; NATO-Russia Council: Russian demands rejected while further talks agreed upon

Photo : REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger


IN FOCUS   

By Padmashree Anandhan

P5 statement to prevent nuclear wars: Four takeaways

On 03 January, China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US issued a joint statement to prevent further nuclear arms. The statement said: “We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons—for as long as they continue to exist—should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.” The five nuclear power nations called the P5 or N5, recognized under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968, hold permanent membership of the UN Security Council. 

The Takeaways

Firstthe commitment the P5 nations are ready to give to the NPT. The treaty is an international agreement that aims to achieve nuclear disarmament, deals with the prevention of nuclear weapons and related technology development. The treaty came into force in 1970 with 191 signatories. Two exceptions to the treaty include South Africa and North Korea. The former initially possessed nuclear weapons but later took down the arsenal while the latter withdrew from the treaty and has recently been testing hypersonic missiles. The 10th review of the treaty, scheduled to take place in January 2022, was postponed. It is in place of this review session, the joint statement has been issued. The statement shows the commitment of the P5 nations to the treaty and increased momentum it is to gain in the coming decades. 

Second, the assurance provided to non-nuclear weapon states. The non-nuclear-weapon states who are members to the NPT are angered with the nuclear developments taking place in the P5 countries. This statement assures the non-nuclear nations that the nuclear power nations will keep their nuclear capacities under control.

Third, the pledge helps P5 nations monitor Russian and Chinese nuclear developments. In terms of bilateral arms control agreements, only one exists between both, that is the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I and SALT II) which was recently extended till 2026. Apart from that, Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2002, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019 and the Open Skies agreements in 2020, were all withdrawn by the US while the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is yet to be ratified. In the case of China, the count of nuclear arsenals is on the rise, and the US and other nations need to ensure that Beijing does not become a global nuclear threat. China is estimated to have around 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, and the US, foreseeing this threat, has been urging both parties to sign a new arms treaty. 

Fourth, the statement masks the hypersonic tests conducted by nuclear power nations. 2021 saw various hypersonic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicle tests, and the like being launched by the P5 countries. The technology enhances the capability of deploying nuclear weapons, thereby making it more critical for the rest of the world. Hence, the issuing of the joint statement helps reduce criticism against testing of new technologies. 

References: 

Rishabh Kachroo, “The status of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,” The Hindu, 07 January 2022.

Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war,” Reuters, 04 January 2022.

UN chief ‘encouraged’ by first joint statement from key nuclear armed States,” UN News, 04 January 2022.

Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races,” The White House, 03 January 2022.

Five world powers issue pledge to prevent nuclear war,” Deutsche Welle, 03 January 2022.

IN BRIEF  

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

Dublin: Birth Information and Tracing Bill approved by the government 

On 12 January, the Republic of Ireland introduced a law to allow adoptees to access their birth certificates under the "Birth Information and Tracing Bill". The legislation has been termed a landmark ruling as it would give adoptees above the age of 16 the right to know the identity they were born with, their medical information, and details about their early life. Minister for Children Roderic O'Gorman said: "With this bill, we are restoring to adopted people the information that so many of us take for granted as part of our own, personal stories." He added: "... for decades in this country, adopted people have been failed in being denied clear access to their identity information.” Earlier, the parents had the right to object and block the release of information to the adopted individuals which gave those adopted a disadvantage when it came to knowing about inherited medical conditions and genetic diseases. ("Irish adoptees to get right of access to birth certificates," BBC, 12 January 2022; "Ireland to give adopted people access to birth records to end 'historic wrong'," The Guardian, 12 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Johnson accepts violating restriction measures during May 2020 lockdown; apologizes 

On 12 January, Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized for attending a drinks party on Downing Street when Britain underwent its first lockdown in May 2020. Johnson spoke to lawmakers during the weekly Prime Minister's Questions session in the House of Commons saying: "I want to apologize. I know that millions of people across this country have made extraordinary sacrifices over the last 18 months." He had claimed that it was a work event as opposition leaders such as Labour leader Keir Starmer said his reasons were "ridiculous" and called for Johnson's resignation. Starmer further said: "Can't the Prime Minister see why the British public think he's lying through his teeth?" Johnson has recently been facing a lot of heat with the uncovering of scandals and discontentment from his colleagues as he accepted he should have sent everyone home than continue with the event. (Esther Webber, "Boris Johnson apologizes for attending Downing Street lockdown garden party," POLITICO, 12 January 2022; "UK PM Johnson offers apology for attending party during Covid-19 lockdown," France24, 12 January 2022)

ENERGY

IEA head claims Russia to have caused the European energy crisis

On 12 January, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol blamed Russia for creating an energy crisis in Europe. The Guardian cited Birol speaking to reporters, saying: “We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour. I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.” This is considered to be the most incriminating statement the agency has released against the Kremlin’s energy policy. Birol added: “The current storage deficit in the European Union is largely due to Gazprom. The low levels of storage in company’s EU-based facilities account for half of the EU storage deficit although Gazprom facilities only constitute 10 percent of the EU’s total storage capacity.” (Jillian Ambrose, “Russia is orchestrating Europe's gas crisis, says energy agency boss,” The Guardian, 12 January 2022)

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Research article accounts for significance of rainy days in economic impact of climate change analyses

On 12 January, POLITICO reported a research article published in the journal Nature titled “The effect of rainfall changes on economic production”. The article commented on how scientists had failed to account for rainy days when analyzing the economic impact of climate change. One of the article authors and Deputy Head of the Complexity Department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Leonie Wenz said: “More rainy days: that's bad for the economy. Droughts and extreme rainfall events and the number of wet days … are all changing due to climate change.” A survey conducted in association with the research estimated that 77 countries in 1,554 regions were inept at dealing with varying weather. POLITICO cited the example of Spain where the “second-worst summer storm of the past 100 years” had “paralyzed the city, flooding tunnels, interrupting metro and regional train services and clogging highways with traffic jams caused by weather-related accidents”. (Karl Mathiesen and Aitor Hernández-Morales, “The rain in Spain causes financial pain,” POLITICO, 12 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Human Rights Watch releases its annual report

On 12 January, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) released its annual report on increasing human rights violations across the globe. The “World Report 2022,” revealed a worldwide increase in repressive and violent acts against civilian protestors by autocratic leaders and military regimes. In contrast, the report also mentioned how ideologically-opposing parties formed coalition governments to remove corrupt, repressive governments and leaders. The Guardian cited instances of these "unlikely" opposition coalitions, stating: "… the Czech Republic, where the prime minister, Andrej Babiš, was defeated, and Israel, where the premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu was brought to an end after 12 years in power in 2021." HRW Director Kenneth Roth, concerned with the rising repression and violence, said: "There is a narrative that autocrats are prevailing and democracy is on the decline, yet if you look at the trends in human rights over the last 12 months it doesn't look so rosy for the autocrats." (Annie Kelly, "Increased repression and violence a sign of weakness, says Human Rights Watch," The Guardian, 13 January 2022)

Former Syrian Colonel sentenced to life imprisonment for crimes against humanity

On 13 January, a German court sentenced Syrian Colonel Anwar Raslan to life imprisonment for committing crimes against humanity in Syria. The ruling is considered a landmark judgement as an international court under universal jurisdiction has ruled that crimes against humanity did happen under the Bashar al-Assad regime. The BBC reported: "This trial serves another purpose too: to build a body of evidence for use in future proceedings." Raslan was accused of perpetrating crimes during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 and 2012. Deutsche Welle reported: "Raslan was allegedly responsible for the torture of at least 4,000 people in a General Intelligence Service prison in the capital, Damascus." (Jenny Hill, "German court finds Syrian colonel guilty of crimes against humanity," BBC, 13 January 2022; "German court finds Syrian ex-colonel guilty of crimes against humanity," Deutsche Welle, 13 January 2022)

NATO-Russia Council: Russian demands rejected; agreement on further talks

On 12 January, the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) was held in Brussels for the first time since July 2019. Primarily focused on the Russian military build-up near the Ukrainian borders, the meeting lasted four hours. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg commented on the talks: “Our differences will not be easy to bridge. But it is a positive sign that all 30 NATO allies sat down with Russia after two years.” Stoltenberg stated that both sides agreed on further talks relating to arms control and missile deployment, along with negotiations to reinstall the Brussels and Moscow offices. The Russian security proposals, however, were rejected by NATO; Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko commented: “I think we have managed to make it clear to NATO members that the situation is becoming intolerable for Russia.” He maintained that NATO’s “expansion” into eastern European countries failed to “resolve them” as it only “moves the division lines” instead of removing them. Stoltenberg responded: “We can discuss many issues but we cannot discuss some core principles.” Meanwhile, the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman warned: “Russia, most of all, will have to decide whether they really are about security, in which case they should engage, or whether this was all a pretext. And they may not even know yet.” (“NATO open to more talks with Russia amid Ukraine tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 12 January 2022; “Ukraine tensions: US says Russia faces stark choice,” BBC, 12 January 2022; David M. Herszenhorn, “Ukraine tensions: US says Russia faces stark choice,” POLITICO, 12 January 2022)


12 January 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #96

Poland’s Pegasus Row: A Polish Watergate?

Hungarian parliamentary elections scheduled for 03 April; Russia conducts live-fire drills post Geneva talks; WHO warns half of Europe to be infected with new variant soon

Photo : REUTERS/Amir Cohen


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Poland’s Pegasus Row: A Polish Watergate?

What is Pegasus? 

Pegasus is a malware that allows its users to remotely hack into Android, Blackberry, iOS, and Symbian operating devices, turning them into remote surveillance systems without the knowledge of the phone's owner. An investigation into Pegasus in 2021 found that it was created by an Israeli company and used by many governments worldwide to spy on opponents, journalists, activists, and politicians. The Israeli-based firm clarified that the software was created to counter and monitor criminals and terrorists. However, due to leaks in July 2021, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) published on the true usage of the software. The findings indicated it was used to target individual phones of people such as the French President Emmanuel Macron and the former journalist Jamal Khashoggi's wife. In addition, autocratic states like Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Morocco were using the software; in 2021, Hungary was the only known user in the EU. 

Poland's acceptance of owning Pegasus 

On 07 January, Poland's ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński confirmed the country had the hacking software system. However, he denied that it was used against the opponents in the 2019 elections; he stated: "the opposition's stories about the use of Pegasus for political purposes are utter nonsense." Kaczyński further justified Poland’s need for the software, saying: "Pegasus is a program that is used by services combating crime and corruption in many countries...It would be bad if the Polish services did not have this type of tool." Kaczyński in December 2021 had denied knowing about the malware and the government had downplayed the idea of owning it.  

Is this Poland's Watergate moment? 

Kaczyński’s acceptance of Poland having the software, triggered both Poland and the EU. Furthermore, the incident provided a broader perspective on Poland's controversial media law and its rule of law challenge with the bloc. The recent revelations by Polish authorities have also drawn a comparison to the 1970s’ Watergate scandal of the US. Poland's next steps could be similar to what happened in the US, where it could bring the Polish President to the spotlight and highlight the country's violation of the EU's rules on private communications and data protection. This could further initiate measures by the EU to take action against Poland under the infringement of the bloc’s rule of law.

Implications on the EU's rule of law 

On 09 September 2021, Members of the European Parliament (MEP) discussed the use of Pegasus and how the spyware was being used by governments in the EU. A French MEP said: "We need to enquire very specifically on the Pegasus case and disclose everything about it and put the governments in front of their responsibilities." This came in light of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stating that he used it for his own political advantage. On 21 December 2021, the concerns of the spyware in the region pushed the EU to reconsider tightening its rules on the use of such technology by authoritarian regimes. Concerning Poland's use of Pegasus, Dutch liberal MEP Sophie in 't Veld called on the Council to take necessary action and to not brush it off. She added: "What is happening here (in Poland) is no longer a democracy. It's no longer a rule of law." 

References: 

"Ruling party figures say Poland has Pegasus spyware," Reuters, 07 January 2022.

Zosia Wanat, "Poland's Watergate: Ruling party leader admits country has Pegasus hacking software," POLITICO, 07 January 2022.

Sophia Khatsenkova, "'Polish Watergate': Tensions grow as Polish government pushed to investigate spyware claims," Euronews, 06 January 2022.

Laurens Cerulus, "Polish spyware scandal stokes tensions with Brussels," POLITICO, 21 December 2021.

"Governments using Pegasus spyware should be held responsible, says MEP," Euronews, 09 September 2021. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

BULGARIA

ECtHR rules Bulgarian surveillance laws to be in breach of ECHR

On 11 January, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled that Bulgaria's surveillance laws were in breach with the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR). According to the ruling, Bulgaria’s legislation had violated the human rights convention in terms of “respect for private life and correspondence and retention and accessing of communication data”. Grounds for violation also include the absence of clear regulation and incapacity to limit the secret collection of communication data. Thereby, due to the ruling, Bulgaria will now have to change its domestic laws to render it consistent with the ECHR. (“Bulgaria's surveillance laws violate European human rights code, court rules,” Deutsche Welle, 11 January 2022 )

HUNGARY

Election 2022: Parliamentary elections scheduled for 03 April

On 11 January, President Janos Ader’s office declared that the Hungarian parliamentary elections would be held on 03 April. The elections will be conducted alongside the long-expected and Fidesz party-proposed referendum on LGBTQ issues. For the first time, Prime Minister Viktor Orban will run against a strong opposition as opinion polls predict a close race. The opposition alliance, led by Peter Marki-Zay, is a six-party entity involving the Democratic Coalition, the Socialists, liberals and the centre-right Jobbik. (Krisztina Than, Hungary sets April 3 election with PM Orban facing united opposition,” Reuters, 11 January 2022)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

More migrants cross the English Channel

On 11 January, close to 100 migrants crossed the English Channel using small boats. Despite the UK's investment in France to prevent migrant crossings, the number of people who have crossed the Channel is three times the number in 2020. According to the Minister of Justice and Tackling Illegal Migration Tom Pursglove: “People fleeing persecution should seek safety in the first safe country they reach and not risk their lives paying criminal gangs to cross the Channel.” The UK government is currently reforming its approach to asylum seekers and illegal entries in order to take a tougher stance against exploitation of its laws. It also plans to consider those who illegally arrive in the UK as committing a criminal offense under the Nationality and Borders Bill. (“Channel migrants: Three boats with 96 people make the crossing,” BBC, 11 January 2022)

UKRAINE

Zelenskiy hopes Normandy Format talks to stabilize eastern Ukraine

On 11 January, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the country’s resolve to undertake appropriate decisions to stabilize the Donbass region via the Normandy format talks. In a statement, he said: “It is time to agree on an end to the conflict, and we are ready for the necessary decisions during a new summit of the leaders of the four countries.” The Normandy Format talks include Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany. Reuters reported a French presidential official to have reported Russia’s Chief Negotiator Dmitry Kozak along with Zelenskiy and his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak to have approved the talks. The French official is said to have added: “The difficulties remain. We are not under any illusions, but we think we can hold a first meeting of the Normandy format advisers by the end of January.” (“Ukraine ready to take decisions to end war at new four-way summit -president,” Reuters, 12 January 2022)

COVID-19

WHO Director predicts half of Europe to be infected in next six weeks

On 12 January, the WHO issued a warning that half of Europe would probably be affected by the new COVID-19 variant Omicron between six to eight weeks. The projection was done based on the number of new cases reported in Europe during the first week of 2022. According to the WHO Regional Director Dr Hans Kluge: “How each country now responds must be informed by its epidemiological situation, available resources, vaccination uptake status and socio-economic context.” Although the new variant is considered less threatening, the infection spread rate is high and can infect those even fully vaccinated. (“Covid: Half of Europe to be infected with Omicron within weeks – WHO,” BBC, 12 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: Russia conducts live-fire drills post Geneva talks

On 11 January, Russia executed live-fire drills with its troops stationed near the Ukrainian border. Reuters reported the continuation of drills near the border implied the reduced possibility of a Russian retreat. In fact, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that although the 10 January Geneva talks were frank and useful, there were no breakthroughs. The US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland expressed her disappointment in Russia’s lack of satisfaction from the talks and added that the drills went in “exactly the opposite direction” of the talks’ motive. Following the Geneva meeting, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “For us it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never, never, ever becomes a member of NATO.” Meanwhile, the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said: “We were firm ... in pushing back on security proposals that are simply non-starters to the United States.” (Dmitry Antonov and Tom Balmforth, “Russia holds tank drills near Ukraine, sounds downbeat on talks,” Reuters, 12 January 2022)


11 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #95

Pan-European ink ban: what does it mean for the tattoo industry?

Kazak parliament elects new Prime Minister; European Parliament President Sassoli dies; Sherman and Ryabkov discuss Ukrainian border tensions

Photo : REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier


IN FOCUS   

By Padmashree Anandhan

Pan-European Ink Ban: What does it mean for the Tattoo industry?

On 03 December, The EU announced a ban on tattoo ink due to the hazardous effect of the chemicals and substances used in the colouring inks. EU tattoo artists criticized the ban as their business had taken a toll in the pandemic. With the new restrictions in place, tattoos will now lack the vibrancy customers desire. 

The ban on hazardous chemicals 

The first move towards the tattoo ink ban was taken by former Germany’s consumer affairs Minister Christian Schmidt, who launched an awareness campaign for the public in 2016 known as “Safer Tattoo”. It included members of Germany’s Federal Tattoo Association (BVT) in Berlin. He called for protocols across europe on the chemicals in tattoo inks and urged for better hygienic standards.

The EU found that 54 million people were tattooed across the region, out of the 54 million up to 12 percent comprised of adults and twice the percentage were young adults who had a tattoo. In Germany, every one in five people are predicted to have a tattoo, and close to 500,000 new tattoos have been recorded every year by the Belgian government. The ban will form part of the EU regulation on Chemicals under Reach (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals) passed in 2020, where around 4,000 similar chemicals such as azo dyes and isopropanol alcohol stand restricted. Usage of these inks can cause severe health issues like cancer, chronic allergic reaction, and inflammatory skin reactions. Hence through Reach, the EU directs the tattoo artists to opt for safer alternatives in place of harmful chemicals.

The primary issue behind the complaints of the tattoo artist is the unavailability of safer alternatives to Blue 15:3 and Green 7 colours. While other options to yellow, red, and orange colour pigments are available, without blue and green, it is feared that 60 percent of the coloured tattoo cannot be designed. The ban has led to frustration and irritation amongst the tattoo artists in the EU.

The UK’s take on the law

The ban does not apply to the UK as the EU passed the law after Brexit. However, the government has asked the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) to investigate the health risks associated with the use of tattoo inks. According to a spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the UK Reach allows the government to make its own decision when it comes to regulating the chemicals. The Defra handles the UK’s Reach and the regulation is done based on the scientific evidence, upon which the issue will be considered for restrictions. 

Future of Tattoo industry in the EU

First, fear amongst tattoo artists. There are 175,000 artists all over the EU, and the ban has invoked fear and anger amongst everyone. Despite a year given to prepare for the ban, there is complete rejection from the EU tattoo industry. They have argued that the direct link between tattoo ink and cancer is not entirely proven. The new restrictions are said to destroy their business, promote illegal ink supplies and give rise to the black market.

Second, possible alternatives. Although the European Commission has announced support measures to help small and mid-size firms, many individuals are trying to find alternatives that can be labelled safe under Reach. For example, a biomedical engineering professor, Carson Bruns from the University of Boulder, has found a way to produce blue pigments using nanotechnology, which does not contain banned chemicals listed in Reach.

Third, people’s stance. The ban does not seem to affect the interest of tattoo enthusiasts. Few have expressed that they would still prefer to get a coloured tattoo. On the other hand, it does not change the market condition for black and white tattooing. This shows the lack of awareness amongst the people on the effects of tattoos. 

References:

New EU ink rules force tattoo artists to change their spots,” Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2022.

Europe's tattoo artists fear for future after EU ink ban,” BBC, 06 January 2022.

Lisa O'Carroll, “UK to investigate tattoo ink health risks after EU ban,” The Guardian, 05 January 2022.

German minister pushes for stricter rules in the tattoo industry,” Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2016.

IN BRIEF  

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews

KAZAKHSTAN

Parliament elects new Prime Minister; Putin comments on protests

On 11 January, Alikhan Smailov was appointed as the new Prime Minister of Kazakhstan after the parliament election on the same. Smailov held the post of the country’s finance minister from 2018 to 2020. The appointment followed President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dissolving the Cabinet due to the protests in the country. Commenting on the presence of foreign troops, Tokayev said: “The main mission of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) troops has been completed.” The Russian President Vladimir Putin stated: “The events in Kazakhstan are not the first and far from the last attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of our states from the outside.” (Louis Westendarp, “Kazakhstan gets new prime minister, with foreign troops set to leave,” POLITICO, 11 January 2022)

REGIONAL

European Parliament President Sassoli dies at 65 

On 11 January, European Parliament President David Sassoli died at the age of 65. A former Italian journalist, center-left politician, and television newsreader, Sassoli became the President of the European Parliament in July 2019. The European Council President Charles Michel, in Sassoli's memory, described him as a "sincere and passionate European". He also said: "We already miss his human warmth, his generosity, his friendliness and his smile." Sassoli had been working remotely as he had a severe case of pneumonia in September 2021. He had resumed his political duties in November 2021 but was again hospitalized on 26 December 2021. The European Parliament had already planned to elect a replacement for him earlier this month as his term was coming to an end, and he did not seek a re-election. ("David Sassoli: European Parliament president dies aged 65," BBC, 11 January 2022; "David Sassoli: European Parliament President dies at 65, spokesman says," Euronews, 11 January 2022)

German and Italian diplomats meet to discuss Russia-Ukraine tensions

On 10 January, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met with her Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio to discuss the EU's approach to Russian actions near the Ukrainian border. Both the countries also decided to cooperate and work together to tackle the pandemic and climate change issues. Baerbock, on the topic of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, said: "One thing is clear: the only way out of the crisis is through dialogue. And it is equally clear that a renewed violation of Ukrainian sovereignty by Russia will have serious consequences." She also spoke about the unrest in Kazakhstan and warned that the country’s dependence on Russia and China could have implications on Europe. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "Baerbock and Di Maio also visited a coronavirus vaccination center in Rome where doctors and medical staff have been administering jabs seven days a week since January 2021." ("Russia tops agenda on German foreign minister's Italy trip," Deutsche Welle. 10 January 2022)

Geneva Talks: Sherman and Ryabkov discuss Ukrainian border tensions

On 10 January, the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov held talks in Geneva to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian border. Concerning the de-escalation of troop build-up by Moscow, Sherman said: "I don't think we know the answer to that. We made it very clear that it's very hard to have constructive, productive and successful diplomacy without de-escalation." Other statements from the US delegation included concerns on whether the Russians would “enter those meetings in good faith," as they felt the Kremlin was looking for chances to declare a failure in negotiations. ("Russia and US hold tense talks on Ukraine crisis," Deutsche Welle. 10 January 2022; James Landale, "Ukraine crisis: Why Russia-US talks may prove crucial," BBC, 10 January 2022)

CLIMATE-CHANGE

EU satellite data reveals the last septennium to be the hottest

On 10 January, the EU's satellite system revealed new data that the last seven years had been the hottest since the beginning of its record-keeping. The EU’s Earth observation program Copernicus Climate Change Service said 2021 was the fifth warmest year and many regions had crossed record-breaking temperatures. The Program Director Carlo Buontempo said: "These events are a stark reminder of the need to change our ways, take decisive and effective steps toward a sustainable society, and work towards reducing net carbon emissions." The summer of 2021 was Europe's warmest, with wildfires that burnt almost entire towns to the ground affecting the wildlife and taking human casualties. The increase in warming gases is another contributing factor to climate change. Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Vincent-Henri Peuch commented on the same, saying: "The increasing concentrations of these gases showed no signs of slowing down." Scientists have also warned of the increase in methane levels which is more harmful to the Earth's atmosphere. (Georgina Rannard, "Past seven years hottest on record - EU satellite data," BBC, 10 January 2022)

 


10 January 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #94

The rising cases of femicide in France

Former Austrian Chancellor Kurz appointed as ECTR co-chairman; Blinken, Ryabkov doubtful of “breakthrough” in US-Russia Geneva talks; Europe sees a wave of COVID-19 protests

Photo : REUTERS/Christian Hartmann


IN FOCUS 

By Ashwin Dhanabalan  

The rising cases of femicide in France 

The recent killings on New Year's Eve 

On 02 January, French feminist campaigners such as #NousToutes, Féminicides Par Compagnons ou Ex and Fédération Nationale Solidarité Femmes called on the government to take action on the rising cases of femicide in the country. The outcry was part of a more significant movement as France witnessed three killings on 01 January. In the three cases, the perpetrators were allegedly the victim's current partners or former partners.   

According to reports by the police, in the first case, a 56-year-old woman was found dead with a knife in her chest in Labry, northeast of France. In the second case, a 28-year-old female was found stabbed to death in Samur, the country's western region. She was a military recruit and is speculated to have been killed by her 21-year-old male partner, also a soldier. In the last case, a 45-year-old woman was found dead in a car trunk in Nice, southeast of France.   

Rising cases of femicide in France and Europe 

The new year's killings have brought the rising cases of femicide to the forefront of France and Europe. In the case of France, the country saw a drop in cases of femicide in 2020 as the number of women killed was 90, while in 2019, the number of females killed was 146. Though the statistics seem optimistic, UN data from September 2020 suggested otherwise as France saw a 30 percent increase in calls and reports on domestic violence. Moreover, one should always remember that every number was a human and, more importantly, a living, breathing woman. In Europe, France also remains the country with the highest number of femicides per capita.   

Cases of violence against women have been spiking over the last few years, bringing outrage from countries across Europe. For example, Greece recorded 17 instances of femicides in 2021; the government also faced backlash for rejecting the opposition's amendment regarding the institutional recognition of the term ‘femicide’. In the UK, the case of Sarah Everad highlighted the culture of misogyny within policing in the country. Meanwhile, the Pope has been actively addressing the issues of gender-based violence, and the increase of crime against women across the world as even Italy saw 90 cases of violence against women.   

Campaigners’ call for tougher action and the government response 

The recent cases brought a wave of activists accusing Macron's government of failing to handle the cases. The feminist group #NousToutes accused Macron's government of "scandalously" remaining silent on the recent killings. The group further stated that they denounced "the silence of Emmanuel Macron and the government in the face of sexist and sexual violence in France". The only response from the French government was Prime minister Jean Castex's comments on the measures the government had undertaken, saying: "This includes setting up a 24/7 emergency hotline and sensitivity training for 90,000 police officers to improve the handling of mistreatment complaints from women." He further announced that France had planned on spending close to EUR 1 billion to implement measures to fight domestic violence and introduce school programs like "equality week" to spread awareness.   

References: 

Laura Smith-Spark, Niamh Kennedy and Joseph Ataman, “Three women brutally killed in one day in France, in 'unbearable' start to new year,” CNN, 08 January 2022. 

"France vows action on femicide after 3 more women killed," Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2022. 

Kim Willsher, "New Year's Day killings spark call for action to tackle violence against women in France," The Guardian, 03 January 2022.  

Sophie Gorman, "French police face disciplinary hearings amid high numbers of femicide," France24, 03 January 2022. 

Tamar Shiloh Vidon, "France announces sharp drop in femicides, but NGOs say it's too early to rejoice," France24, 03 February 2021.   

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

AUSTRIA  

Former Chancellor Kurz appointed as ECTR co-chairman 

On 09 January, former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was appointed as the new co-chairman of the European Council on Tolerance and Reconciliation (ECTR). According to the ECTR’s official website, the international NGO works against “such evils as extremism, racism, antisemitism and xenophobia”. Responding to Kurz’s appointment, ECTR founder Moshe Kantor tweeted: “We could not have found a better person to lead with passion, wisdom and determination against today's global challenges.” Kurz replied to the announcement via an ECTR statement, saying: “It is a great honor to join such an important organization which works against extremism and for greater tolerance across Europe.” The former chancellor had resigned from his post as he was faced with allegations of corruption and wrongdoing. (“Austria′s former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz joins anti-racism NGO,” Deutsche Welle, 09 January 2022) 

ITALY  

The Scala dei Turchi found to be damaged with red iron oxide powder 

On 09 January, the renowned white limestone Scala dei Turchi cliff in Sicily was found to be ruined with red iron oxide powder, upon which an investigation has been initiated to track down the responsible perpetrators. The site, which was an entry for the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world heritage status in 2019, is one of most visited tourist spots of Italy. The chief prosecutor of the Agrigento region, Luigi Patronaggio, is leading the investigation to trace the perpetrators. (Angela Giuffrida, “Italy’s Scala dei Turchi cliffs defaced with red powder,” The Guardian, 09 January 2022) 

SERBIA 

Prime Minister Brnabić extends support to Djokovic 

On 08 January, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić backed tennis player Novak Djokovic who is being held in Australian immigration detention over concerns regarding his vaccination credentials. Djokovic’s visa has been invalidated over these concerns. Brnabić, responding to Serbian media, stated that there were “positive” talks underway and added: “The Serbian government is ready to provide all the guarantees necessary for Novak to be allowed to enter Australia, the Serbian president is also involved.” The case concerning this issue will be heard on 10 January. Djokovic, competing for his 21st Grand Slam title, was to participate in the Australian Open starting on 17 January. (Samuel Stolton, “Serbian PM pledges support for Djokovic in Australia spat,” POLITICO, 09 January 2022) 

REGIONAL  

EU’s Home Affairs Commission proposes legislation against child sexual abuse 

On 09 January, EU’s Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson proposed to pass a legislation to detect, report and remove child sexual abuse on digital platforms. According to Johansson, five companies similar to Meta (former Facebook) accounted for 95 percent of the offences. She said: “I will propose legislation in the coming months that will require companies to detect, report, and remove child sexual abuse… during the pandemic, when more perpetrators were at home in isolation, the demand for material depicting child sexual abuse increased, in some EU member countries even by up to 25 percent.” The Commissioner has called for cooperation at global and the European level against child sexual abuse. (“EU to step up fight against child abuse content,” Deutsche Welle, 09 January 2022)  

COVID-19  

France: New COVID-19 rule sparks protests 

On 08 January, COVID-19 protests were held by anti-vaxxers across France against President Emmanuel Macron’s warning to stiffen the COVID-19 rules. The protests witnessed more than 100,000 people marching against the new restriction. The French government has proposed a law, where the COVID-19 negative test is to be replaced by mandatory vaccine certificates which will be the token of access for entry into restaurants, theaters and bars. The protestor who took part in the march expressed that their freedom had been taken away and that they were being treated unequally. (“We’ll piss you off’: French anti-vaccine protesters rally against Macron,” The Guardian, 08 January 2022) 

Europe sees a wave of COVID-19 protests 

On 09 January, a wave of COVID-19 protests was witnessed in Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany and Austria. The protests were sparked due to the new rules established by governments mandating its citizens to take booster shots. Among the EU countries, Austria showed the highest participation with more than 40,000 people gathering against compulsory vaccinations. The Czech Republic’s new government has even considered scrapping the vaccine mandate for those above the age of 60 to curb protests. Among all the European countries, Germany is experiencing the greatest number of protests ranging across various cities including Hamburg, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf and Koblenz. (“Thousands protest COVID curbs in Europe amid omicron surge,” Deutsche Welle, 09 January 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL 

Russia: Ryabkov and Sherman to meet on 10 January 

On 10 January, the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will meet with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Geneva. The diplomat-level talks will primarily focus on the Russian demands regarding the Ukraine crisis, the restrictions on military exercises and the possibility of missile deployments in the region. On 09 January, the two ministers met ahead of the talks over dinner. On the same day, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented on the imminent talks in an interview with CNN, saying: “There are two paths before us. There’s a path of dialogue and diplomacy to try to resolve some of these differences and avoid a confrontation. The other path is confrontation and massive consequences for Russia if it renews its aggression on Ukraine. We’re about to test the proposition about which path President Putin’s prepared to take.” Given the significant absence of the EU from the scheduled negotiations, France’s European Affairs Minister Clément Beaune commented: “Europeans shouldn’t be absent from the negotiation table.” The US-Russia talks will be followed by the NATO-Russia Council on 12 January and the meeting of the OSCE’s permanent council on 13 January in Brussels and Vienna, respectively. (Julian Borger, “Ukraine's fate hangs in balance as 'critical' week of talks begins,” The Guardian, 09 January 2022; “US ready to discuss curbing military exercises in Ukraine talks with Russia,” The Guardian, 08 January 2022)    

Geneva Talks: Blinken, Ryabkov doubtful of “breakthrough”  

On 09 January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated ahead of the Geneva talks between the US and Russia that he did not expect any “breakthrough in the coming week”. He was speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union”. Meanwhile, Interfax cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying it was “naive” if one predicted “progress, let alone quick progress”. He added: “We will not agree to any concession. That is completely excluded… We are disappointed with the signals coming in the last few days from Washington but also from Brussels.” There was significant tension between the two sides ahead of the scheduled talks with Blinken citing Kazakhstan's case and warning: “One lesson of recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it's sometimes very difficult to get them to leave.” The Russian Foreign Ministry was quick to respond via its Telegram channel: “If Antony Blinken loves history lessons so much, then he should take the following into account: when Americans are in your house, it can be difficult to stay alive and not be robbed or raped.” The Russian response can be subject to the US Uniform Code of Military Justice leading to a court-martial for violating conduct. (Jordan Wolman, “Blinken sets limits on US talks with Russia,” POLITICO, 09 January 2022; “Russia says not hopeful ahead of talks with US over Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 09 January 2022; “Ukraine-Russia crisis: US refuses to draw down troops,” Deutsche Welle, 08 January 2022) 


08 January 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #93

France: Celebrating 60 years of Yves Saint Laurent

Czech’s push to phase out coal by 2033; Kaczyński confirms government acquisition of Pegasus spyware; US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicts Russia of a false narrative

Photo : YSL/ Attribune


IN FOCUS 

By Joeana Cera Matthews 

France: Celebrating 60 years of Yves Saint Laurent

The Legacy

On 29 January 2022, the design house, Yves Saint Laurent (YSL), will complete 60 years in the fashion industry. The first-ever YSL show was on 29 January 1962. Founded by the late fashion designer and named after him, Yves Saint Laurent entered the haute couture industry succeeding the already established fashion house, Christian Dior, in December 1961. He worked with his life and business partner Pierre Bergé. In 2002, the duo established the Pierre Bergé-Yves Saint Laurent Foundation to conserve and promote the couturier’s work. 

A Tribute

As a tribute to the late designer, six leading museums in Paris, including the Louvre and the Musée d’Orsay, will hold exhibitions marking the 60th anniversary of the design house’s first collection. The exhibition, scheduled from 29 January to 15 May, will see different features of the designer’s work. It is expected to showcase the inspirations of Saint Laurent including 20th-century greats like Picasso, Matisse and Mondrian. The curator of the multi-centre event, Mouna Mekouar justifies the need for such a tribute. She says: “We didn’t want to put the clothes in a room, we wanted them there among the permanent collections. In this way visitors will rediscover those collections at the same time as paying homage to Yves Saint Laurent. It’s like a cultural archipelago.” In fact, the couturier himself had stated: “Always influenced by painting, I owe my July 1966 collection to American painters like Wesselman, Roy Lichtenstein. All my dresses were lit with landscapes, moons and sunlight.” The Guardian reported a total of 50 creations and 300 designs to be on display during the exhibition. 

President of the Pierre Bergé-Yves Saint Laurent Foundation, Madison Cox, commented on the upcoming event, stating: “To me, Yves Saint Laurent has always been cutting-edge and innovative, talking about how to see fashion in different ways, how to project fashion in different ways, and also how to look back at his work and how to make it relevant, in a sense. And I felt that there was something else that could be said about Saint Laurent and his relationship with art.” The YSL display will build on the peculiarities of the permanent collections showcased in the respective museums. Cox elaborates: “So we’re not taking an empty temporary exhibition space and filling it, but we’re actually placing the Saint Laurent designs within the permanent art galleries.”  

However, contrary to popular understanding, there will be no presentation of clothes. Instead, the process of building an haute couture piece from scratch will be the speciality of the display. Cox explained: “I think it’s interesting also for the public to see, what is the process from a simple sketch with an HB pencil to almost the finished product, which is a toile, or a muslin dummy, that was produced for each item.” This effort, he believes, will also give an opportunity for the works of the seamstresses, the hat-makers, the shoe-makers and everybody else who were part of creating a “maison de couture” or fashion house. The exhibition, as a whole, is expected to provide a new perspective into the couturier’s work.  

References: 

Kim Willsher, The art of Yves Saint Laurent: design house marks 60th anniversary,” The Guardian, 01 January 2022.  

Danielle Moreira, Yves Saint Laurent - 60 years that unite 6 iconic museums,” L’Officiel, 24 November 2021.  

Joelle Diderich, Yves Saint Laurent to Mark 60th Anniversary at Six Paris Museums,” Women’s Wear Daily, 21 October 2021.  

Fondation Pierre Bergé - Yves Saint Laurent,” Musée Yves Saint Laurent Paris, n.d. 

IN BRIEF 

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

THE CZECH REPUBLIC

The country's push to phase out coal by 2033

On 07 January, the new centre-right government of the Czech Republic released a programme deciding to phase out the use of coal by 2033. The government's stand on the issue aligns with its support for nuclear and gas energy as part of its future energy investments. The programme further said: "We will create conditions for an energy transformation and the development of coal regions so that a shift from coal will be possible by 2033." In 2020, the Czech Republic used 43 percent of coal for its energy generation while only 37 percent was produced via nuclear plants. The country's dependence on coal has made the government push towards cleaner sources of energy. As reported by Reuters: "The Czech Republic had pushed for nuclear power and gas to be included in the European Union's hotly-debated green investment plan, whose proposed rules were circulated on the last day of 2021." ("New Czech government sees coal exit by 2033, backs nuclear power," Reuters, 07 January 2022)

POLAND

Kaczyński confirms the acquisition of Pegasus by the country

On 07 January, Poland's ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński confirmed the acquisition of Pegasus spyware by the country. He also clarified that it was not used against opposition politicians in the 2019 elections and said: "the opposition's stories about the use of Pegasus for political purposes are utter nonsense." Member of the Sejm party Krzysztof Brejza noted his phone was hacked about 33 times before the elections, and his texts were leaked to news channels. Amnesty's Poland Director Anna Błaszczak in a statement, mentioned: "These findings are shocking but not surprising. They raise serious concerns not only for politicians but for the civil society in Poland in general particularly given the context of persistent and serious concerns over the government's record on human rights and the rule of law." The opposition has compared the use of Pegasus to the Watergate scandal in the US, calling it "Poland’s Watergate". ("Poland: Top leader admits government bought Pegasus spyware,Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2022; Zoysia Wanat, "Poland's Watergate: Ruling party leader admits country has Pegasus hacking software," POLITICO, 07 January 2022) 

UKRAINE

Ukrainian court freezes former President Poroshenko's assets

On 07 January, a court in Ukraine ordered the freezing of the assets of former President Petro Poroshenko on charges of high treason. Poroshenko was charged with purchasing coal from the Dunes region that was speculated to fund pro-Russian separatists. He has denied the claims and his party called the decision "illegal, unjust". Poroshenko’s party further stated: "The government, instead of consolidating Ukrainian society to oppose Putin, is fueling internal confrontation. Thus, it recklessly and irresponsibly weakens the front against Russian aggression." Post the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine scrambled for coal and seized many coal mines to fulfil the country's energy demands. Authorities allege that Poroshenko had conspired with pro-Russian leader Viktor Medvedchuk to secure coal purchases from the eastern region. ("Ukrainian court freezes assets of former President Petro Poroshenko," Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2022; Pavel Polityuk and Natalia Zinets, "Ukraine opposition blasts president as court freezes predecessor's assets," Reuters, 07 January 2022) 

REGIONAL

NATO foreign ministers meet on Ukraine issue; yet to reach decision

On 07 January, NATO foreign ministers met virtually to discuss the growing Russian military troops at the Ukrainian border. According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg: “We are ready to engage in arms control with Russia, conventional and nuclear, but that has to be reciprocal…We can't end up in a situation where we have second-class NATO members, where NATO as an alliance is not allowed to protect them. The risk of conflict is real. Russia's aggressive actions seriously undermine the security order in Europe.” The outcome of the discussion shows the existence of tensions in deciding how to handle Russia. The top leaders of the EU have called for larger involvement of the bloc in the security situation of Ukraine but have not disclosed the details of how the involvement will proceed. Meanwhile the West has assured full support to Ukraine in terms of independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The US has also warned that there will be serious consequences if there are further intrusions from the Russian end. (NATO won't create '2nd-class' allies to soothe Russia, alliance head says,” Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2022) 

Macron meets von der Leyen; discusses Kazakhstan and Russian military build-up

On 07 January, in a press conference, French President Emmanuel Macron and head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen expressed their concerns over deadly clashes in Kazakhstan. Von der Leyen called for the end of violence in the region and Macron said that he would monitor the developments in the upcoming days. Apart from this, they also discussed Russian developments in Ukraine. Macron suggested an EU level dialogue with Russia. According to him: “I continue to ask for a dialogue that is frank, exacting and coordinated, because member states don’t have the same history with regard to Russia, nor the same geography.” (Macron, EU's von der Leyen call for end to Kazakhstan violence,” France 24, 07 January 2022; Lisa O’ Carroll, EU must have ‘frank, exacting’ dialogue with Russia, Macron says,” The Guardian, 07 January 2022)

BREXIT

Truss and Coveney meet to discuss Northern Ireland

On 07 January, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney met to discuss the issues of the BREXIT arrangements in Northern Ireland. They also discussed their relationship with the EU and the UN security matters with regard to the crisis in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. An Irish government source stated: “The minister for foreign affairs and the foreign secretary have previously worked together in the agriculture brief, so it was good to have the opportunity early in the new year to meet in person. They had a good and friendly discussion on all matters in their current brief, including Brexit in Northern Ireland, as well as matters of the UN security council.” The two ministers had earlier met in 2014 when they both were responsible for their countries’ agricultural ministries. The discussion comes before the Stormont elections that are to be held in May 2022. (Lisa O'Carroll, UK and Irish foreign secretaries meet over Northern Ireland Brexit impasse," The Guardian, 07 January 2022) 

INTERNATIONAL

Albania: The US sets up Special Force command post in the country

On 07 January, European Command headquarters in Germany’s Stuttgart confirmed the construction of a regional command post for the US special force in Albania. The same was confirmed by the US Special Operations Major General David H. Tabor, who said: “The ability to rapidly move and train within the Balkans, in close coordination with other allied and partner forces, made Albania the best location for this effort.” In response to the efforts of the US, the Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has welcomed the set-up of the special force. The special forces are those which are specially trained to deal counter-terrorism and reconnaissance missions, hence, it is still unclear what the US is aiming at by placing its operations in Albania. (US constructs new special forces regional base in Albania,” Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2022)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicts Russia of a false narrative

On 08 January, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Russia for its justification for the military build-up at the Ukrainian border as the latter considers Ukraine and NATO to be threatening its security. He added that Russia’s process to weaken the politics, democratic institutions and energy sectors of Ukraine began long ago. According to Blinken: “Next week we’ll reconfirm our readiness to increase transparency, institute new risk-reduction measures and renew efforts to address nuclear and conventional threats to European security… But again, it has to be a two-way street.” (Simon Lewis, Blinken accuses Russia of 'false narrative' on Ukraine ahead of talks,” Reuters, 08 January 2022)


 


07 January 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #92

Italy: The race for presidency

Poland to call back ambassador to the Czech Republic over “unacceptable comments”; Doctors Without Borders leaves Poland-Belarus border; France fines Google and Facebook for tracking users

Photo : Olivier Hoslet/EPA


IN FOCUS 

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Italy: The race for the presidency

Upcoming presidential elections 

On 24 January, Italy will hold elections for selecting a new head of state, replacing the incumbent Sergio Mattarella. The elections are being closely monitored given the candidacies of the current prime minister Mario Draghi and tycoon turned politician Silvio Berlusconi. Presidential candidates in Italy usually do not declare themselves as potential contenders before the polls. Yet, these two have managed to break the tradition and have turned heads since they put up their names as nominees for the post. The presidential elections in Italy would be conducted via a secret ballot, which will see more than 1,000 parliamentarians and regional representatives casting their votes. 

The procedure for the elections involves each parliamentarian writing a name on a piece of paper and putting it in the ballot. Prior to this, parties try to choose a common candidate although the outcome cannot be controlled due to the secretive voting. As a result, random names appear as nominees since anyone can stand for the post as long as they are above 50 and Italian citizens. As reported by Reuters, the Italian election process has "first three rounds of voting, a two-thirds majority is required to elect a president. From the fourth vote on, the threshold is lowered to an absolute majority, meaning more than half of those who cast a ballot". Each round takes at least four hours to complete. Other candidates who have expressed their interest for the post include the current Justice Minister Marta Cartabia, former lower house speaker Pier Ferdinando Casini and former Prime Minister Giuliano Amato.

A Profile: Silvio Berlusconi 

Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has put forward his name as the next President of Italy. He had allegedly promised his mother "that one day he would become president," and has put forward his name in a race that holds the future of Italy. Berlusconi was Italy's longest-serving post-war premier as he served three terms as prime minister. However, his sex party scandals and tax frauds led him to be barred from public office in 2013. The billionaire media mogul has been in the limelight for his eclectic personality, and analysts speculate that his personality could help him muster support during the elections. He has even sent out his speeches and policy priorities to parliamentarians, hoping they vote for him as he tries to broaden his appeal. Nevertheless, it has come to a point where he praised his arch political enemies' policies on "flagship citizens' income welfare schemes," making him unpredictable to even the center-right parties that support him. 

A Profile: Mario Draghi 

Current Prime Minister Mario Draghi is an all-time favourite among the Italian people as he played a crucial role to save Italy's economy when the pandemic hit the country. He is a respected banker turned emergency prime minister who brought structural reforms to the economy. He also served as the European Central Bank (ECB) chief from 2011-2019, during which he saved the euro during the debt crisis. Nonetheless, the Italians do not see him as a presidential candidate since the role of a president is more symbolic, representing national unity while the prime minister has a more vital role to play, being the head of the executive who deals with the immediate issues of the country. Concerning standing for the presidency, Draghi stated: "I am a man and, if you like, a grandfather at the service of the institutions." If Draghi decides to stand for the elections, Italy would have to elect a prime minister a year earlier, right after the presidential elections conclude.

As the elections are approaching, both the candidates would find it challenging to secure the position as Berlusconi would need more support from other parliamentarians apart from the center-right ones. At the same time, Draghi would need to muster the support of coalition parties to help him secure the post. 

References:

Gavin Jones and Angelo Amante, "Italy parliament to begin voting for new head of state on 24 January," Reuters, 04 January 2022.

Angela Giuffrida, "Italians fear return of instability if Mario Draghi quits to become president," The Guardian, 26 December 2021.

Hannah Roberts, "Italy's succession dilemma: It only wants Mario Draghi," POLITICO, 14 December 2021.

Angelo Amante, "Mission impossible? Berlusconi launches bid for Italian presidency," Reuters, 09 December 2021.

IN BRIEF 

By Joeana Cera Matthews 

REGIONAL

France plans to use anti-coercion instrument against Chinese pressure on Lithuania

On 06 January, POLITICO reported a senior French government official stated that the bloc’s in-process anti-coercion instrument would be preceded by alternative action. The official was speaking in the background of the pressure Lithuania was facing from China due to the Taiwanese embassy in Vilnius.  He said: “The anti-coercion instrument is still under negotiation, but maybe something can be done in advance in support of Lithuania… It is not clear what the determining reason for China's behavior towards this country was. Perhaps it was the Taiwan issue, but there was also the fact that Lithuania left the 17+1 mechanism that China had initiated.” The issue which has garnered international responses saw the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying: “China is pushing European and American companies to stop building products with components made in Lithuania or risk losing access to the Chinese market… The United States will work with our allies and partners, including Germany, to stand up against intimidation like this.” (Jakob Hanke Vela, Giorgio Leali and Stuart Lau, France eyes quick anti-China action to bail out Lithuania in trade war,” POLITICO, 06 January 2022)

Poland to call back ambassador to the Czech Republic over “unacceptable comments”

On 06 January, the Polish government announced that it would soon recall the country’s ambassador to the Czech Republic. Miroslaw Jasinski will be called back for his comments on the Turow mine which has been a source of tension between Prague and Warsaw. The Polish government spokesperson Piotr Müller tweeted: “Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has decided to start the procedure for recalling the Polish Ambassador to the Czech Republic… Extremely irresponsible statements about the Turow mine are not acceptable.” In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Jasinski had claimed the tensions originated from “a lack of empathy, a lack of understanding and a lack of willingness to engage in dialogue — above all on the Polish side.” (Richard Connor, Warsaw to recall ambassador to Prague after Poland criticism,” Deutsche Welle, 07 January 2022)

MIGRATION

Doctors Without Borders leaves Poland-Belarus border

On 06 January, the medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) stated that it had withdrawn its medical staff from the Belarus-Poland border. MSF’s Emergency Coordinator for Poland and Lithuania Frauke Ossig said: “Since October, MSF has repeatedly requested access to the restricted area and the border guard posts in Poland, but without success… We know that there are still people crossing the border and hiding in the forest, in need of support, but while we are committed to assisting people on the move wherever they may be, we have not been able to reach them in Poland.” The lack of access to the region owes to the state of emergency imposed by the Polish Interior Ministry since 01 December 2021. (Medics leave Poland-Belarus border without reaching migrants,” Deutsche Welle, 06 January 2022)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

France: Google and Facebook fined for tracking users

On 06 January, French privacy watchdog Commission Nationale de l'Informatique et des Libertés (CNIL) fined Google and Facebook with penalties of EUR 150 million and EUR 60 million, respectively. They were charged for their inability to permit “French users to easily refuse cookies”. According to POLITICO: “Cookies are tracking tools responsible for irritating consent pop-ups and ads that follow you around the internet, are regularly decried as the scourge of the web, one that Paris has vowed to stamp out.” Commenting on the move, CNIL President Marie-Laure Denis said: “This topic is really a priority of our control policy this year, and if necessary, these controls could be followed by formal notices, public or not, and financial penalties, public or not.” (Vincent Manancourt and Laura Kayali, France flexes muscles with fines against Facebook, Google over cookie banners,” POLITICO, 06 January 2022)

 


06 January 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #91

Impact of BREXIT and COVID-19 on educational visits to the UK

Russian “peacekeeping forces” to quell Kazakhstan protests; US Treasury sanctions Milorad Dodik for “destabilizing the region”; Taiwan to invest EUR 176 million in Lithuania to reduce Chinese pressure

Photo : REUTERS/Toby Melville


IN FOCUS 

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Impact of BREXIT and COVID-19 on educational visits to the UK

BREXIT's impact on educational visits

On 01 January 2021, BREXIT was officially implemented, leading to the UK leaving the EU. A year later, the implementation of the new regulations under BREXIT has significantly impacted the educational sector, as academic trips to the UK have drastically reduced over the last year. Its implications on educational visits have directly affected the academic markets' supporting arms such as language schools, home-stays, and hotels. Organizers of school trips raised their concerns about the new rules under BREXIT to the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as these school trips generated income for the families who hosted students in their homes. The students earlier opted for shorter visits for a few months, which helped them move between their countries and the UK. But now, with the new immigration rules in place, getting visas and passports have become a hassle and more expensive for short visits. In addition, visits by these students supported other attractions in the country such as museums, theatres, and cultural centres.

The Impact of COVID-19

In general, the pandemic has reduced educational visits across Europe. Even then, it has seen a further decline in those students interested in travelling to the UK; students now prefer to go to other English-speaking countries like Ireland and the Netherlands. The UK's day two lateral flow tests for international arrivals are a factor, as passengers have to take a COVID-19 test within two days of entering England. The government justified the fall in educational visits to the pandemic and the measures adopted by the government to strengthen its borders. Verdié Voyages, a French tourism company that organizes educational visits, said: "Requests are down for all destinations because of Covid." However, another reason for the decline in visiting the UK is the decrease in subsidized travel by educational institutes in the EU since to the UK. Professors and teachers would now prefer to travel within the EU for cheaper opportunities than heading to the UK. 

Implications to the supporting services 

French and German educational trips accounted for 750,000 students visiting the UK every year till the beginning of the pandemic, but the numbers will likely reduce to half due to the new regulations. Earlier, a regular EU national ID card was enough for a student to enter the UK under the EU's laws, but now the students or their parents would have to pay to get a passport and a visa to traverse between the EU and the UK. A German federation of leading school trip organizers said: "In many British towns, student visitors are a vital part of the local economy," as there was an economic benefit to many smaller towns in the country. French Organizers stated: "France's 10,000 school trips a year represent a direct annual input into the UK economy of GBP 100 million." Therefore, the UK would lose a lot of income from the industry as visiting interests of students have now moved away from England to other parts of the EU. Apart from the ramifications to the educational sector, diplomatic ties fostered through school and college trips received a setback. As The Guardian reported: "They forge lifelong connections with the UK, increase tolerance for people, cultures and different ways of living and thinking, and help the acquisition of language skills in the internationally most important language." Students from not so well-off households in Europe were deterred from coming to the UK for short visits as they would have to pay for each visit to the country. 

References: 

Jon Henley, "'Almost unsaleable': slump in school trips to UK blamed on Brexit," The Guardian, 26 December 2021.

Julia Buckley, "How the UK became the sick man of European tourism," CNN, 13 November 2021. 

Jon Henley and Kate Connolly, "School trips to UK from EU could halve as Brexit hits cultural exchanges," The Guardian, 04 June 2021.

Shannon McMohan, "What will Brexit change for travelers? Here's what to know," The Washington Post, 12 January 2021. 

IN BRIEF 

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

COVID-19 

Serbia: Tennis player Novak Djokovic receives backlash over attempted vaccine exemption

On 06 January, Serbian tennis player Novak Djokovic was denied entry to Australia. It was said that the tennis player was granted a medical exemption by the Victoria state and event organizers. Despite the exemption to play the Australian Open, the player’s visa was cancelled. The Australian border officials reported that Djokovic’s failure to provide valid evidence to enter Australia after coming from Dubai would keep him in the immigration detention hotel. The issue has caused irritation amongst tennis supporters and Djokovic’s family. His supporters have blamed Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison for reversing his decision from supporting the exemption to not, and is accused of politicizing. According to Morrison: “If that evidence is insufficient, then he won't be treated any differently to anyone else, and he'll be on the next plane home.” (Novak Djokovic: Australia cancels top tennis player's visa,” BBC, 06 January 2022; Novak Djokovic denied entry to Australia, requests injunction,” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2022)

ENERGY 

Kosovo: Waning electricity crisis leads to ban on crypto-mining 

On 06 January, the government of Kosovo banned the mining of cryptocurrencies to cut down the electricity usage given the waning energy crisis. It ordered security services to track down the sources of cryptocurrency mining and shut it down. The reason for the energy shortage is attributed to the closure of the largest coal-fired power plant due to technical issues. This led to the government importing electricity at high prices. With Europe going through an energy crisis and various member countries taking necessary measures, Kosovo has opted to ban cryptocurrency mining. (Kosovo bans cryptocurrency mining after blackouts,” BBC, 05 January 2021) 

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

France: Macron targets negotiation on digital acts between the European Commission and Parliament  

On 06 January, the first meeting of the 27 EU Commissioners took place in Paris. According to French President Emmanuel Macron: “the French presidency must be a moment of truth for the regulation and accountability of digital platforms, the carbon pricing at European borders on imported products, minimum wages, and our relationship with Africa.” As part of France’s digital agenda for Europe, Paris plans to negotiate the proposal of the European Commission on Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA) with the European Parliament. While DSA targets disinformation, murky advertising practices and illegal content, the DMA targets MNC’s from manipulating their power in digital forums. According to Europe Policy Analyst Eliska Pirkova: “We can expect the French presidency to focus on reinforcing measures to combat illegal content online, safeguarding due diligence measures as well as on pushing for strong centralized enforcement of the future DSA regulation.” (Jack Parrock, France aims at Big Tech as it kicks off EU presidency,” Deutsche Welle, 05 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL 

Germany: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in the US, discusses Ukraine with Blinken

On 05 January, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met in Washington. Regarding the military developments along the Ukrainian border, the US has recommended its European allies to impose further sanctions on Russia. According to Blinken: “Strong trans-Atlantic solidarity is the most effective response and most effective tool that we have in countering Russian aggression.” Baerbock commented after the meeting that it is impossible to arrive at an alternative for a political solution. Although the new coalition supports the joint statement against Russia that was signed by the previous government with Washington, it is yet to disclose the sanctions to be imposed on the Kremlin if an invasion occurs. (Simon Lewis and Madeline Chambers,Blinken, German minister reiterate warning to Russia over Ukraine,” Reuters, 06 January 2022)

Russia: Russian “peacekeeping forces” to quell Kazakhstan protests

On 05 January, the Armenian Prime Minister and Chairman of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikol Pashinyan stated that a Russian-led alliance of “peacekeeping forces” would be dispatched to the region. The announcement came as a response to Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s appeal for troops to “stabilize” the country. Meanwhile, Interfaxreported Russian MP Leonid Kalashnikov to have added that the forces would remain in the region “for as long as the president of Kazakhstan believes it necessary”. Tokayev stated: “Almaty was attacked, destroyed, vandalised, the residents of Almaty became victims of attacks by terrorists, bandits, therefore it is our duty … to take all possible actions to protect our state.” According to the Belta news agency, Tokayev consulted with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian head Vladimir Putin. The violent protests followed a steep hike in the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices. (Shaun Walker and Naubet Bisenov,Shots heard in Kazakhstan as protests enter third day,” The Guardian, 06 January 2022; Shaun Walker and Naubet Bisenov, Kazakhstan protests: Moscow-led alliance sends 'peacekeeping forces',” The Guardian, 05 January 2022; Kazakhstan unrest: Government calls for Russian help,” BBC, 06 January 2022; Armenia says peacekeepers from Russian-led alliance to go to Kazakhstan,” Reuters, 06 January 2022) 

Serbia: US Treasury sanctions Dodik for “attempts to threaten the stability of the region” 

On 05 January, Deutsche Welle reported the US Treasury Department to have imposed sanctions on the Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik claiming he “improperly used his position to amass riches through a patronage system of bribery and graft”. The department’s Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson was quoted as saying: “Milorad Dodik's destabilizing corrupt activities and attempts to dismantle the Dayton Peace Accords, motivated by his own self-interest, threaten the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the entire region.” The sanctions will be manifested via reporting, freezing, and blocking of those US assets that the Dodik owns; US citizens and companies will also be prohibited from trading with them. However, Dodik seemed least concerned about the move. He was quoted saying: “If they think that they will discipline me like this, they are grossly mistaken… I do not intend to apply for a visa for America even if my sanctions are lifted tomorrow.” (“US sanctions Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik over corruption,” Deutsche Welle, 05 January 2022; Julian Borger, US sanctions Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik for 'destabilizing activities',” The Guardian, 05 January 2022)

Lithuania: Taiwan steps in with EUR 176 million fund to reduce Chinese economic pressure

On 05 January, Taiwan announced that it would establish a EUR 176 million (USD 200 million) fund to invest in the semiconductor, laser and biotechnology industries of Lithuania. The investment comes in the backdrop of Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda terming the establishment of a Taiwan representative office in Vilnius under the name of “Taiwan” instead of the Beijing-approved “Taipei”. Nauseda’s statement was a result of the excessive economic pressure that China was putting on Lithuania. The Taiwanese investment hopes to reverse or reduce the pressure from Beijing. Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Tseng Hou-jen was quoted by Deutsche Welle as saying: “It's time for us to help with your difficulties… China's action seems to have targeted what it perceives as a vulnerable country, for its political gains. But giving in is not the best way in dealing with bullies.” (“Taiwan to establish $200 million Lithuania investment fund,” Deutsche Welle, 05 January 2022; Taiwan setting up $200m Lithuania fund amid China row,” BBC, 06 January 2022) 

 


05 January 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #90

Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who, Why and How?

Lithuanian President Nauseda calls naming the Taiwan office “a mistake”; Alaskan Malamute keeps injured hiker warm for 13 hours before being rescued; Italian Presidential elections to be held on 24 January

Photo : CNN


IN FOCUS 

By Padmashree Anandhan

Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who, Why and How

On 02 January, Amsterdam witnessed demonstrations despite the ban on public gatherings. The protestors later escalated to clash with the local police,who were to clear away the crowd. According to the statement released by the police, amongst the protestors, four were injured, and 30 were detained.  

On 04 January, Czech firefighters, police officers and rescue workers voiced out and signed a petition to withdraw the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. The protests were a direct consequence of the fear built up due the potential loss of jobs and imminent staff shortage. Similarly, Germany also experienced a wide range of protests in different parts where protestors engaged in violent demonstrations against COVID-19 measures.

Nature of protests

First, a mapping of protests. When compared with other regions, Europe has seen more protests. Within Europe, Germany and the countries surrounding it like Austria, Vienna, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg have witnessed the most number of protests.

Second, the trigger. Countries like Austria and Belgium saw more than 35,000 people gathering against the COVID-19 measures in recent months. The Netherlands is the only country experiencing a wave of protests, despite strict warnings from the government. The major trigger for these protests has been the partial lockdown of public spaces such as restaurants and theatres, government inability to provide effective treatment and the vaccine mandate for the working population. 

Third, the intensity. In recent protests in the Netherlands, although the count of protesters decreased, the nature of the protests became more aggressive. From protesting for a ban on the vaccine mandate, the Amsterdam protests demanded freedom and less repression from the government. Instead of mass demonstrations, protesters threw glass bottles, sprayed chemicals at police, and some were even demanding a change in government. The larger reason behind the changing nature of these protests can be due to change in the demography of the protestors. With the participation of people from various social, religious and political groups, the protests have incorporated a political element into the COVID-19 protests, questioning the capacity of the democratic states.

Who are the protestors?

In the entire protestor population, most of them who belonged to the working class or a particular group of workers were pushed to get vaccinated. The anti-vaxxers’ population accumulated in these COVID-19 protests, but in reality these demonstrations include people from different social and religious groups. It is especially true in the case of Vienna, where the protestors belonged to the far-right Freedom Party of Austria. There were also supporters from the members of the ultra-conservative Catholic community in promoting the gatherings.

In Germany, the torch-lit rally outside the house of Germany’s Health Minister Petra Köpping was carried out by the Free Saxons, classified as a right-wing extremist group. The group has also accepted the same out loud via Twitter. Such demonstrations show how such political groups are manipulating the protests for their benefit.

In the Netherlands, there was no division in terms of religious groups. However, both evangelical Christians and hooligans were involved in the protests. Apart from them, there are also political supporters involved in aggravating the protests against the present government. Therefore, the protests are moving slowly from the focus of COVID-19 measures to pursuing their own motivations.

State response 

On 05 January, as the new variant cases surged in France, President Emmanuel Macron warned that the lives of the people would be made difficult if they remained unvaccinated; they would be strictly barred from coffee shops to any public place. In Amsterdam, many were detained by the Dutch police, and as the protests escalated to throwing bottles and chemical sprays, the protestors were handled by the police with pepper spray, force and even dogs. The handling of the protests is more important now than ever as it is important to keep up with the domestic goodwill and international reputation, especially for a few leaders who are nearing elections like Macron and those who have just taken up the leadership like Germany’s Olaf Scholz. Germany, which is yet to introduce compulsory vaccination, is already facing protests. The top officials of the party have recommended to Germany to pass the vaccination campaign and regulate to control the protests. The former German Chancellor Angela Merkel followed a tight health model by shifting from 3G to 2G+ rule. Under the 3G rule, only the employees were asked to submit their vaccination proof and negative tests done in the last 24 hours. In the 2G+, the same was mandated but not only in workplaces but to all public places. If the new coalition continues such repressive regulations, the result will be more protests of extreme nature in Germany. 

To conclude, protests in Europe show the following trends. One, the right-wing politician will utilize these protests to sabotage the image of the ruling government. Two, despite three waves of COVID-19, not all European countries are prepared to handle the fourth wave. Three, there will be a shift in the mindsets of the protestors from losing confidence in the government to asking for individual freedom.

References:

Amsterdam: Thousands protest COVID measures despite ban on gatherings,” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2022.

Covid: President Macron warns he will 'hassle' France's unvaccinated,” BBC, 05 January 2022.

What is behind the COVID protests across Europe?,” Deutsche Welle, 09 December 2021.

Germany: Torchlit rally against COVID measures in Saxony prompts outcry,” Deutsche Welle, 06 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

CROATIA

Alaskan Malamute keeps injured hiker warm for 13 hours before being rescued

On 04 January, The Guardian reported an eight-month-old Alaskan Malamute to have saved a hiker who was injured in the Velebit range of the Croatian mountains. The dog named North, lay on an immobile Grga Brkic, for 13 hours to keep him warm until rescue services arrived. After they were rescued, Croatia’s mountain rescue service took to Facebook, posting: “Friendship and love between man and dog have no boundaries.” The post also accompanied a photo of Brkic on a stretcher with North lying on top of him. ('A real miracle': dog saves injured hiker stranded in Croatian mountains,” The Guardian, 04 January 2022)

GERMANY

Greens support another term for President Steinmeier  

On 04 January, the German Green party released a joint statement extending their support to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for another term in the Presidency. The Party leaders said: “(Steinmeier is a) very good and highly respected Federal President who earned great merits for our country in his first term of office… We are convinced that he will continue to support and guide our society on the difficult way out of the pandemic.” Steinmeier has held the office since 2017 and is the only presidential candidate running for the February 13 parliamentary elections. Steinmeier is also backed by his Social Democratic Party and the Free Democrats. (Thibault Spirlet, Frank-Walter Steinmeier set for second term as German president, after winning Greens' support,” POLITICO, 04 January 2022)

ITALY

Presidential elections to be held on 24 January

On 04 January, President of the Chamber of Deputies Roberto Fico released a statement via Facebook announcing that the presidential elections for the country were set to be held on 24 January. He said: “I have convened the Parliament in a common session for the election of the President of the Republic on January 24 at 3 pm.” The elections will have a series of voting rounds and will see 1,009 electors casting secret ballots. Although Italy does not have official candidates, those vying for the position include present Prime Minister Mario Draghi, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, former lower house speaker Pierferdinando Casini, former Prime Minister Giuliano Amato and the current Justice Minister Marta Cartabia. The victor will replace incumbent President Sergio Mattarella for a seven-year term. (Thibault Spirlet, Italy's parliament set to vote for new president on January 24,” POLITICO, 04 January 2022; Gavin Jones and Angelo Amante, Italy parliament to begin voting for new head of state on Jan. 24,” Reuters, 04 January 2022)

CLIMATE-CHANGE

Serbia: Renewed protests against lithium mining plans in the country

On 03 January, hundreds of protesters in Serbia’s Novi Sad region took to the streets and blocked roads in multiple locations, demanding the government to stop lithium mining plans. One of the protest leaders Aleksandar Jovanovic said: “They (the government) could only implement this project with police and the army. There’s nothing to talk about any more, this agony has to stop.” The protestors took to the streets as they were concerned about the environmental ramifications of the mine to the lithium-rich western Serbia. Protestors threatened more action unless the company Rio Tinto’s application was rejected. The Balkan countries have become more environmentally aware due to the rising problems of waste management, as well as air and water pollution. The Serbian protestors were worried about their homes and lands as they would be relocated if the mines were opened. (Hundreds block roads in Serbia against lithium mining plans,” The Washington Post, 04 January 2022; Stefan Goranovic, Hundreds of protesters in Serbia call for an end to lithium mine plan,” Euronews, 04 January 2022)

COVID-19

France: Macron says unvaccinated will be “hassled”, restricted from public life

On 05 January, French President Emmanuel Macron said: "I really want to hassle them, and we will continue to do this - to the end," as he warned the unvaccinated people in the country that he would pester them until they were vaccinated. He added: "I won't send [unvaccinated people] to prison…So we need to tell them, from 15 January, you will no longer be able to go to the restaurant. You will no longer be able to go for a coffee, you will no longer be able to go to the theater. You will no longer be able to go to the cinema." His comments sparked criticism from the opposition as the word "emmerder" that he used has a vulgar connotation in French implying “to annoy something”. France has the highest vaccination rates and has inoculated at least 90 percent of its population. On 04 January, France reported 271,686 cases, which is the highest rise in daily cases since the pandemic's start. ("Covid: President Macron warns he will 'hassle' France's unvaccinated," BBC, 05 January 2022; Jon Henley, "Macron declares his Covid strategy is to 'piss off' the unvaccinated," The Guardian, 04 January 2022)

GENDER

France: Rising cases of femicide under Macron's Presidency

On 04 January, feminist groups in France called on the government for failing to protect women against domestic violence and raised concerns about the increasing atrocities against women. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "…three women were found dead in different parts of the country on New Year's Day, in suspected domestic violence attacks." Prime Minister Jean Castex was concerned about the recent murders and raised the issue in the Parliament stating: "There were more than 100 femicides in 2021 and already since the start of the year three new murders committed in scandalous conditions." France has one of the highest femicides per capita, where at least one woman is killed every three days. Two feminist groups Féminicides Par Compagnons ou Ex and #NousToutes in France commented on the issue saying they denounced "the silence of Emmanuel Macron and the government in the face of sexist and sexual violence in France". The government had taken measures to combat femicide by setting up sensitivity training for police officers and a 24/7 helpline, but the recent murders have questioned its effectiveness. ("France vows action on femicide after 3 more women killed," Deutsche Welle, 04 January 2022; Josephine Joly, "Feminist groups denounce French government's 'silence' after New Year's Day femicides," Euronews, 04 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

Lithuania: President Nauseda calls naming the Taiwan office “a mistake”

On 04 January, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said it was a mistake to have opened a Taiwan office termed 'Taiwan" and not "Chinese Taipei" in the country. Nauseda said he was not consulted when the office's naming was decided and this led to heightened tension with China. Nauseda added: "The name of the office has become the key factor that now strongly affects our relations with China." China has restricted issuing visas to Lithuania, while Vilnius closed its embassy in Beijing and recalled its last diplomat. Nauseda stated that he would take this up with the EU, saying: "We have to be extremely active and make it very clear to the European Union that this is an attack, a kind of pressure on one of its member states." Lithuania still plans to open a trade office in Taiwan, while Taiwan has recently bought 20,000 bottles of Lithuanian rum that was headed to China. China blocked the commodity from entering the country due to the recent diplomatic debacle with Lithuania. ("Opening a Taiwan Representative Office was 'mistake', says Lithuanian president," Euronews, 04 January 2022; "Taiwan buys 20,000 bottles of Lithuania rum destined for China," BBC, 05 January 2022)

 


04 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #89

France's EU presidency: What it means for Europe?

New COVID-19 variant discovered in southern France; Spanish NGO Walking Borders reports 4,404 migrants died at sea in 2021; P5 releases joint statement, says “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”

Photo : Xinhua/Picture Alliance


IN FOCUS 

By Padmashree Anandhan

France's EU presidency: What it means for Europe?

On 01 January, France celebrated the launch of its EU presidency by lighting up the EU flag on historical monuments and embassies across Paris. The country is set to hold the presidency of the Council of the EU for the next six months, till 30 June 2022. In the statement released by the French President Emmanuel Macron, he said: “This is a time for Europe. Faced with health and economic challenges, the rise of aggressive powers and climate change, the best response is a European one.” However, replacing the French flag with the EU’s was criticized by French right-wing politicians, leading to the eventual removal of the flag from the Arc de Triomphe. Macron’s opponent, and far-right independent candidate Eric Zemmour called it “an outrage”, as the move was seen as an attack on the French identity.

French agenda for its Presidency

The critical role of France as it holds the EU presidency will be first, to organize meetings for the Council of the EU. Second, to nurture cooperation among member states. Third, to handle the Council relation with the European Commission and Parliament. Fourth, to mediate negotiations. Fifth, to create a new growth model for Europe and finally, the sixth, to bring out a human-centred Europe. According to Macron: “This agenda for a sovereign Europe will be accelerated with the French Presidency. Europe must rise to the major economic, educational, migration and military challenges. The French Presidency must be a moment of truth for the regulation and accountability of digital platforms, the carbon pricing at European borders on imported products, minimum wages, and our relationship with Africa.”

Other responses 

First, the domestic level. A survey conducted by POLITICO’s Cornelius Hirsch among the French public revealed that the majority of the people were not aware of France taking up the Presidency. On being questioned regarding the issues that France as the Council President needed to prioritize, issues such as environment, climate change, immigration, economy and health topped the graph.

Second, the community level. The Muslim community feels that France’s divisive anti-Muslim political discourse will see a manifestation in the EU policymaking. Many French politicians have opted for raging against Islamophobia as their electoral strategy in recent days. Macron’s government has been criticized for closing the collective against Islamophobia in France, an anti-discriminatory body documenting anti-Muslim hate crimes. The community now fears that with France taking up the Presidency, such repressive measures might widen across Europe.

Third, the regional level. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said that Germany and France, being the closest of friends, now have an obligation to join together for a united and stronger EU.

What does it mean for Europe?

The rampant problems Europe faces is more challenging than ever for the French government leading the bloc. The challenges range from controlling the spread of the new Omicron variant, handling the COVID-19 protests across the region, the migration crisis, the Russia-Ukraine border tensions to climate change. It is well-known that the six-month tenure of France will not bring a solution to everything, but the French President nearing his elections in April 2022 cannot afford to take any missteps while dealing with these issues. If there is a change in the leadership, the situation will get chaotic, as is seen with the unsettled migration issue; the new party might have a different agenda for Europe.

References:

France takes over EU presidency with push for ‘strategic autonomy’,” Deutsche Welle, 01 January 2022.

EU flag removed from Arc de Triomphe after right-wing outrage,” BBC, 02 January 2022.

Message from the President,” French Presidency of the Council of the European Union, 09 December 2021.

Cornelius Hirsch, What the French think of the EU presidency, in charts,” POLITICO, 03 January 2022.

Shada Islam, Why Europe’s Muslims are braced for France’s stint running the EU presidency,” The Guardian, 03 January 2022.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

FRANCE

France: French MP's receive threats for law on “vaccine pass”

On 04 January, French Members of Parliament (MP) received death threats as the government sought to legislate a "vaccine pass" law. The vaccine pass would be used as a means to identify unvaccinated people and bar them from much of public life in France. As reported by the BBC: "The government is seeking to pass a law that would require people to show proof of vaccination to access public venues and transport with some exceptions." On 02 January, center-right party member Agnès Firmin Le Bodo received death threats as she supported the vaccination pass. Another MP, Naïma Moutchou received similar threats in an email that she shared on Twitter. Assessing the situation, the lower house of the parliament suspended debates on the law and the next date for the discussion is yet to be decided. France has been very strict with COVID-19 regulations, and an individual using a fake vaccine pass could be sentenced to five years in prison with a fine of EUR 75,000. ("Covid-19: French MPs get death threats over support for vaccine pass," BBC, 03 January 2022; "French lawmakers suspend fractious vaccine pass debate in setback for government," France24, 04 December 2022) 

TURKEY

Turkey faces high inflation with Erdogan's policies.

On 04 January, Turkey's inflation rate reached a record high of 36 percent. The last time Turkey registered an inflation rate similar to this was in October 2002. The likely reason for the economic turmoil is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unconventional economic approach and his policies on inflation. Erdogan's party was credited to steer the country out of the 2002 financial crisis but, due to the current situation, the party now faces uncertainties in the 2023 elections. Erdogan's unconventional style of handling the crisis is peculiar as he stuck to his policies and opposed the hiking of interest rates. As reported by France24, Erdogan believed: "High interest rates are a drag on activity and slow down economic growth, but they are useful to tamp down inflation as they cut demand and encourage savings." A dollar was about Lira 7.4 at the beginning of 2021 but has now dropped down to Lira 18.4 in December. ("Turkish inflation soars to 36% as financial turmoil continues," France24, 04 January 2022; "Turkey's inflation hits 36% amid financial turmoil," BBC, 03 January 2022)

UKRAINE

Normandy format talks to be held on 06 January

On 03 January, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that Russia had called for urgent talks with Ukraine, Germany and France. The talks will, thus, be held under the Normandy format on 06 January. Russia is expected to be represented by its Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak who will also be hosting the talks. Germany will send German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Foreign Policy Advisor Jens Plötner while France is expected to send French President Emmanuel Macron’s advisor Emmanuel Bonne. Deutsche Welle reported that the Ukrainian representative was still unclear. This will be the first Normandy format talks since 2019. (Ukraine tensions: Normandy format talks set for Thursday,” Deutsche Welle, 03 January 2022)

Borrell to visit east Ukraine to reaffirm the EU's support to the country

On 03 January, EU's diplomat Josep Borrell decided to visit east Ukraine near the line of contact to reaffirm the bloc’s support to Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is expected to accompany him on his three-day visit. The EU Commission released a statement that read: "His first foreign trip of this year underscores EU's strong support to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity at a time when the country is confronted with Russian military build-up and hybrid actions." East Ukraine is the centre of conflict between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists. Borrell also mentioned: "any discussion about European security must happen in coordination with and participation of EU." The US and Russian officials are to meet in Geneva on 10 January, while discussions are scheduled to take place between NATO and Russia, later that week. ("Borrell to reiterate EU support to Kyiv during visit to eastern Ukraine as US-Russia talks near," Euronews, 04 January 2022; "EU's Borrell to Visit Ukraine Frontline Amid Russia Tensions," The Moscow Times, 03 January 2022)

COVID-19

France: New variant discovered in southern France and the rising COVID-19 cases in Europe

On 03 January, scientists in the country raised concerns about "the emergence of a new variant" in the southern part of France. As reported by The Daily Express, 12 patients tested positive for COVID-19 and indicated "an atypical combination". IHU Mediterranee Infection in Marseille discovered the variation, and the experts named the new variant B.1.640.2. COVID-19 cases have recently surged all across Europe due to the emergence of the new Omicron variant. Over the last few days, the UK registered 189,846 new cases, while Italy saw 98,030 new cases. As a result, countries like France, Germany and Greece have started implementing tighter restrictions such as more social distancing regulations and mandatory masking. (Callum Hoare, "Covid warning as new variant with '46 mutations' infects 12 in southern France," The Daily Express, 03 January 2022; "COVID in Europe: UK health service under strain, PM says," Euronews, 03 January 2022) 

MIGRATION

Spain: Walking Borders reports 4,404 migrants died at sea in 2021

On 03 January, the NGO Caminando Fronteras (Walking Borders) released a report concluding that the refugee attempts to reach Spain took 4,404 lives, 205 of whom are children. The death toll is said to be the highest since 2015 when they began data tracking. The NGO’s founder Helena Maleno commented on the report and said: “It’s horrible… These are the worst figures we’ve seen since we began keeping count in 2007.” The reason for the increased deaths was attributed to the deviation of the migrants to the Canary Islands route which is extremely dangerous since it has stronger currents and is longer. According to the NGO’s data until 28 December 2021, 22,200 migrants landed on the Canary Islands. The NGO also called on Spain’s government to respond to the worsening situation. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) had earlier termed 2021 to be the “deadliest for migration routes to and within Europe” since 2018. (Ashifa Kassam, Death toll of refugees attempting to reach Spain doubles in 2021,” The Guardian, 03 January 2022; Death toll of migrants trying to reach Spain doubles in 2021,” Deutsche Welle, 03 January 2022; 4,400 migrants lost at sea bound for Spain in 2021, double previous year,” Reuters, 04 January 2022)

Report claims more than 28,000 migrants crossed English Channel in 2021

On 04 January, the PA news agency declared that more than 28,000 migrants had crossed the English Channel from France to the UK in 2021. The statistics were concluded based on the agency’s study of government data. The exact figure of 28,395 people (based on statistics by France24), is reported to be three times of what was recorded in 2020. November 2021 saw the highest number of migrants crossing the Channel into the UK. This was attributed to the fact that larger boats were used instead of the usual dinghies. The migration situation has been troubling both the British and French governments, putting at stake their bilateral relations. The UK’s Nationality and Borders bill is being reviewed by the parliament; the passing of the bill would legally permit repatriation of those asylum seekers who have crossed the “safe third countries”. UK Home Office Minister Tom Pursglove commented on the bill, stating: (the government was) making the tough decisions to end the overt exploitation of our laws… The sooner the House of Lords approves the Nationality and Borders Bill, the sooner these reforms will be delivered.” (Record number of migrants crossed Channel from France to UK last year, says report,” France24, 04 January 2022;Channel migrants: Crossing numbers in 2021 triple 2020's figure,” BBC, 04 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL

P5 releases joint statement, says “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”

On 03 January, the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) permanent five (P5) group of countries which includes China, France, Russia, the UK and the US released a joint statement which stated that nuclear war would never be an option. The statement read: “We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented… A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” The English-language version of the statement also included: “As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons — for as long as they continue to exist — should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.” The agreement has been released before the tenth review session of the Treaty of the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). China’s state media agency Xinhua reported its Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhauxu commenting on the statement: “(the agreement) will help increase mutual trust and replace competition among major powers with coordination and cooperation.” Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry was quoted saying: “We hope that in the current difficult conditions of international security, the approval of such a political statement will help reduce the level of international tensions.” (Five world powers issue pledge to prevent nuclear war,” Deutsche Welle, 03 January 2022; Russia, China, Britain, US and France say no one can win nuclear war,” Reuters, 04 January 2022)


03 January 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #88

Geneva: What to expect in the January US-Russia security talks?

France takes over EU rotating presidency; Biden and Zelenskyy hold a telephonic conversation; Austria legalizes assisted suicide

Photo : Sputnik/Sergey Bobylev/Pool via REUTERS


IN FOCUS  

By Joeana Cera Matthews  

Geneva: What to expect in the January US-Russia security talks?

On 28 December, The Guardian reported Russian and the US officials to have verified security talks between the two countries on 09 to 10 January 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland. Earlier, on 27 November, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council had said: “When we sit down to talk, Russia can put its concerns on the table, and we will put our concerns on the table with Russia’s activities as well. There will be areas where we can make progress, and areas where we will disagree. That’s what diplomacy is about.” The bilateral talks are expected to be a part of the Strategic Security Dialogue, an initiative begun by US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. 

The discussions, actors, reasons, and results  

First, the discussions. The 09 and 10 January talks are not the only deliberations scheduled for Russia with the West. On 12 January, Russia and NATO are set to talk over the escalating border crisis and the measures to be adopted regarding the same. On 13 January, Russia will meet with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). 

Second, the actors. The 2021 Geneva Summit saw Biden and Putin personally meeting and deliberating issues of significance. The upcoming security talks, however, will be held between Russian officials along with officials from the US, the EU, NATO, and the OSCE. It is still unclear who will represent Russia and the US during the high-stakes discussions. 

Third, the Ukraine crisis. The primary focus of the NATO-Russia Council meeting and the OSCE’s Permanent Council is expected to be the Ukrainian border standoff. The Guardian, in its article, had stated that the deliberations were expected to cover “Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, while Moscow will press demands that Nato pledges not to admit Ukraine and roll back the alliance’s post-cold war development”. Russia, however, seems to be clear on its result from the talks – get the West out of its “sphere of influence”. The Kremlin despises NATO’s expansion into eastern Europe. However, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council stated that no decisions about Ukraine would be made without its presence. 

Fourth, the expected results. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia would be taking a “hard line” during the negotiations, permitting “no concessions” concerning their demands. Meanwhile, commenting on the possibility of discussions on arms control and the Russian military build-up during the talks, Kremlin Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated: “(there was) no need to invent an oversized agenda and to stuff it with issues, which have long been addressed through other channels, to serve one’s own interests.” The focus, according to Ryabkov, is set to be the two documents submitted to NATO and the US which lists Russian demands for the region.  

References: 

Jarrett Renshaw and Vladimir Soldatkin, 'Serious' talk between Biden and Putin sets stage for diplomacy,” Reuters, 31 December 2021. 

Andrew Roth and Jon Henley, US and Russia to hold talks amid Ukraine tensions,” The Guardian, 28 December 2021.  

US, Russia to hold talks on arms control, Ukraine on January 10,” France24, 28 December 2021. 

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

AUSTRIA

Vienna: Law implementing assisted suicide approved

On 01 January, Austria implemented a law legalizing assisted suicide of terminally-ill adults or people with a permanent health condition. As reported by the BBC: “Parliament approved the new law in December, following a constitutional court ruling on the issue. The practice will be tightly regulated, with each case assessed by two doctors - one of whom would have to be a palliative medicine expert.” Assisted suicide has been gaining traction across Europe with countries such as Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands decriminalizing it, while Switzerland has legalized the act. The Archbishop of Austria Franz Lackner commented on how the Austrian legislation had ignored the importance of human life and further said it was “unfair toward all those people who make it possible to die with dignity through reliable and attentive care and who will continue in the future”. (New law allowing assisted suicide takes effect in Austria,” BBC, 02 January 2022; Stefan J. Bos, Austria: Assisted suicide legalized despite Church opposition,” Vatican News, 02 January 2022) 

DENMARK

Domestic flights to be fossil fuel-free by 2030

On 02 January, the Government of Denmark announced its goal to eliminate the use of fossil fuels in its domestic flights by 2030. It aims to cut down the carbon emissions by 70 percent in comparison to the 1990 levels. The plan to achieve the goal is through developing hydrogen-fuelled planes, where the fuels are expected to be produced from renewable energy. An unclear factor is that, whether the said technology will be cost-effective to achieve it by 2030. According to Denmark Prime Minister Metter Frederiksen: “When other countries in the world are too slow, then Denmark must take the lead and raise the bar even more.” Apart from Denmark, countries like Sweden and France have also drafted similar plans to cut down fossil fuel usage. (Denmark to make domestic flights fossil fuel free by 2030,” BBC, 02 January 2021) 

UKRAINE

Tkachenko registers complaint against Netflix’s “Emily in Paris”

On 03 January, Ukraine's Cultural Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko registered a complaint to Netflix regarding the portrayal of a character from Kyiv. In the Netflix show “Emily in Paris”, the protagonist Emily’s Ukrainian friend Petra is depicted as a shoplifter. Petra's role was seen as “insulting” to the country and the Ukrainian people; this instigated Tkachenko to write to the streaming service. Tkachenko said: "In Emily in Paris, we have a caricature image of a Ukrainian woman that is unacceptable. It is also insulting…  Is that how Ukrainians are seen abroad?" This is not the first time the series has been criticized. As reported by BBC, its previous season “...was criticized, particularly in France, for promoting stereotypical images of the city and its residents. It portrays the French as rude people who wear berets and frequently cheat on their partners”. (Emily in Paris: Ukraine complains over Kyiv character stereotype,” BBC, 03 January 2022)  

REGIONAL

France: New Year’s Eve sees Paris at the helm of the EU presidency

On 01 January, France took over the rotating presidency of the EU for the 13th time on the eve of the new year. The EU presidency which rotates every six months amongst the 27-nation bloc, saw France lighting up the EU’s blue flag across historical places in Paris. The move of displaying the EU flag on the day when France was taking over was criticized by right-wing politicians leading to the flag being taken down later. The EU presidency is seen as an advantage to the French President Emmanuel Macron who is up for elections in April 2022. In a statement, Macron said: “This agenda for a sovereign Europe will be accelerated with the French Presidency. Europe must rise to the major economic, educational, migration and military challenges.” Overall, France aims to bring a new model of growth in Europe which includes innovation, job creation and job security to compete internationally and adopt climate harm reduction initiatives. (France takes over EU presidency with push for 'strategic autonomy,” Deutsche Welle, 01 January 2022; EU flag removed from Arc de Triomphe after right-wing outrage,” BBC, 02 January 2022) 

Germany: EU proposal to label gas and nuclear power as ‘green’ garners criticism  

On 02 January, the EU announced its plans to categorize certain gas and nuclear energy as green. The proposal arose from the pledge the bloc has taken to maintain the temperatures within 1.5C. Meanwhile, Germany, which considers nuclear power to be polluting, has shut down most of its major reactors. The EU looks at gas and nuclear energy as a way to shift to cleaner power. Germany’s Environmental Minister Svenja Schulze criticized the move by calling the proposal “absolutely wrong”. A significant element of the proposal is that it approves only highly standardized gas and nuclear plants as green. However, if the majority of the EU members back the proposal, it will become a law. In such a scenario Germany will have to stand out, maybe along with a few other countries like Belgium. (EU plans to label gas and nuclear energy 'green' prompt row,” BBC, 02 January 2022) 

COVID-19

The Netherlands: Amsterdam witnesses protests against pandemic restrictions

On 02 January, Amsterdam witnessed mass protests against the restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of coronavirus. A huge number of people gathered at the center of the city engaging in clashes with riot police as the latter tried to clear the place. The signboards carried by the protestors varied from, “It's not about a virus, it's about control”' to “Trump 2021”. This showed the difference in demands amongst the protestors. Although the 02 January protests were banned, the local government was aware of the protestors’ plan to cause violence. It later issued an order for people to exit the area. (Amsterdam: Thousands protest COVID measures despite ban on gatherings,” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2022)  

INTERNATIONAL

Biden and Zelenskyy hold 2022’s first telephonic conversation  

On 01 January, US President Joe Biden spoke on a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and reiterated his support for Ukraine as tensions continued to loom large with Russia. According to the White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki: “President Biden made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.” Psaki further mentioned how Biden “…reaffirmed the United States' commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity”. After the call, Zelenskyy tweeted about his telephonic conversation with Biden where he said: “The first international talk of the year with @POTUS proves the special nature of our relations.” Russia has been skeptical about the recent developments and has expressed their concerns that Ukraine joining NATO, would leave Moscow vulnerable from the West. (David Cohen, Biden reaffirms support for Ukraine in phone call with president,” POLITICO, 01 January 2022; Meryl Kornfield, Biden says he warned Putin of 'severe sanctions' if Russia invades Ukraine again,” The Washington Post, 31 December 2021)


01 January 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #87

One year of Brexit: What does it mean for European exporters to the UK?

Biden and Putin hold a telephonic conversation; Moscow Court orders close of MHRC after Memorial International; France to ban packaging plastic and single-use plastics

Photo : AFP


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

One year of Brexit: What does it mean for European exporters to the UK?

A recent report of the European Commission shows that the value of the EU agri-foods exports to the UK has barely changed with only a 0.4 per cent reduction in the first eight months of 2021 when compared to 2020. Although the report draws a comparison between 2020 and 2021, the struggle was real between the exporters of the EU and the UK. Keeping the pandemic period away for the comparison, the difference in trade between both countries widens when 2019 and 2021 are considered. For the UK exporters, it was a rough path as the borders were redrawn, but it was the same even for the EU exporters. Despite the exclusion of tariffs and quotas, the exit of the UK from the bloc created barriers while affecting cost and the advent of new import controls. The farming sector was one such industry that was hit due to Brexit.

Major issues in exports to the UK

First, farming and agri-food. A major exporter of such products to the UK is Brittany, located in northwest France, whose entire exports fell by 19 per cent with a loss of EUR 53.2 million. It had a larger effect on the local farming industry of Brittany where cheese and dairy product exports declined by 58 per cent while that of beef and pork fell by 43 per cent in 2021. There are various reasons behind the drop. One, dairy products have a short storage life and with borders in place it increases the delivery time, thereby, raising the cost. Two, apart from facing new measures of the UK government, before the exit Britain stockpiled the necessary products. Three, it also restricted its exporters from selling dairy products outside the country. Hence, domestic production kept the UK afloat.

Second, cooked meat and vegetables. While the farming products saw a decline, the cooked meat, fresh vegetables, and other vegetable products were highly exported to the UK. This particular set of products saw a rise in exports mainly due to the shortage in the workforce that the UK faced. The gardeners of the UK were forced to leave their fresh farms to rot as it did not have workers to harvest the yield.

Third, small firms versus large firms. Many large companies like Laita and Arla Foods had better winning rates than other small firms which struggled to keep up with the Brexit and the COVID-19 effect. The reason behind the variance is that the small firms never ventured their products out of Europe and the UK had remained a major consumer of their products. Therefore, big firms were able to strive through both Brexit and the pandemic by establishing alternative channels of transport to export their products despite some challenges.

Fourth, seed potato. While farming and dairy products faced a downfall of exports, the production of seed potato collapsed. This was a hard hit for the Dutch producers since it was completely excluded from the Brexit trade deal. This failure was due to the inability to reach an arrangement on regulatory terms and the end of six-month exemption for the EU exporters to the UK. Industrial experts state that the lack of political will and flexibility led to a dead-end. A solution to the export situation could be if the UK made a dynamic alignment like Switzerland, but the political scenario is not in favour.

What is ahead?

The after-effects of the post-Brexit period have pushed France and the Netherlands to depend on the EU’s EUR 5 billion emergency fund to cope with its businesses while searching for alternative markets. Here, the question of sustainability plays a vital role. The UK has been a viable market for many countries to export; however, venturing into new markets holds the question of how well the EU products will sustain there. Even if new companies in the EU decide to launch branches into the UK, Britain’s new rules will create complications.

Meanwhile, many are ready to adapt to the new system of import control by the UK as they consider the British market as potent as ever. Another reason is that the UK still remains one of the biggest importers of the EU products and as the interdependency exists, it is expected that the trade between both will continue to grow with new rules.

References:

Alasdair Sandford, A year since Brexit: How has it affected European exporters to the UK?,” Euronews, 27 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

AUSTRIA

Kurz to join Thiel Capital

On 30 December, former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz joined the investment firm Thiel Capital as a global strategist. Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire who owns Thiel Capital. An early investor in Facebook and co-founder of PayPal, Thiel also backed former US President Donald Trump during his tenure. After being implicated in a corruption scandal, Kurz resigned from his post and left politics entirely as he wanted to spend more time with his family. Concerning the implications, the New York Post reported: "Austrian authorities are investigating claims that Kurz and his political allies used public money to publish doctored polls in a bid to retain power. Kurz has denied wrongdoing". Kurz will be receiving EUR 300,000 in his new job role as he plans to commute between Europe and the firm headquartered in the US. (Thomas Barrabi, "Peter Thiel hires disgraced ex-Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz," New York Post, 30 December 2021; Thibault Spirlet, "Ex-Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to work for tech billionaire Peter Thiel," POLITICO, 30 December 2021)

FRANCE

Use of plastic in packaging and single-use plastics banned in the country

On 31 December, France passed a law to ban plastic in packaging fruits and vegetables. As reported by The Guardian: "From New Year's Day, France will ban supermarkets and other shops from selling cucumbers wrapped in plastic, and peppers, courgettes, aubergines and leeks in plastic packaging. A total of 30 types of fruit and vegetables will be banned from having any plastic wrapping, including bananas, pears, lemons, oranges and kiwis.”' French President Emmanuel Macron called this "a real revolution" and stated how "France was taking the lead globally with its law to gradually phase out all single-use plastics by 2040". According to a poll organized in 2019 by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Paris cited that 85 per cent of French people wanted to ban single-use plastic products and packaging. The citizens were supportive of the initiative and further said this was "a positive step in the right direction". (Angelique Chrisafis, "That's a wrap: French plastic packaging ban for fruit and veg begins," The Guardian, 31 December 2021)

RUSSIA

Moscow Court orders close of MHRC after Memorial International

On 29 December, Moscow court Judge Mikhail Kazakov declared the closure of the Memorial Human Rights Center (MHRC) since it failed to label all its publications as “foreign agents”. The prosecutors stated that the Memorial “creates a false image of the USSR as a terrorist state and denigrates the memory of World War II”. The ruling garnered international responses including those from the UN Human Rights Office and the UK Foreign Minister Liz Truss; they expressed concern over the ruling, stating that it “further weaken(ed) the country's dwindling human rights community”. The Director of Human Rights Watch (HRW) Kenneth Roth said: “(the closure) speaks to the fears of the Russian government that it is no longer willing to tolerate the honest and objective accounting of its conduct that Memorial provides.” This ruling followed the ban on the main organization, Memorial International, on similar charges. The MHRC, which plans to appeal against the ruling, advocated for “political prisoners, migrants and other minorities” while concentrating on rights violations in the North Caucasus. (Moscow court orders Memorial Human Rights Center to be banned,” Deutsche Welle, 29 December 2021; Andrew Roth, Russian court orders closure of another human rights group,” The Guardian, 29 December 2021;Moscow court orders closure of Memorial human rights centre,” France24, 29 December 2021)

CLIMATE-CHANGE

Spain: Record-breaking temperatures experienced across the country

On 31 December, Spain experienced record-breaking temperatures of 24 degree Celsius in the lower areas of the country while the Alps registered temperatures of 15 degrees Celsius. A meteorologist Luca Mercalli said: "At the moment it is about 15C in areas of the Alps at an altitude of 1,600 metres and is not hitting zero beneath 4,000 metres. It hasn't even been freezing at night – the temperature has not dropped below 10 degrees, and this is very unusual." A member of the State Meteorological Agency AEMET Rubén del Campo said: "These are temperatures that you would normally see in the month of April." Spain's climatic conditions are said to be influenced by the climate crisis and global heating. Campo further talked about the abnormal climatic conditions as Spain had experienced extreme temperatures that ranged from minus 25 degrees Celsius to 30 degrees Celsius in 2021. (Angela Giuffrida and Ashifa Kassam, "24C in Spain, 15C in the Alps: oddly warm end to 2021 in parts of Europe," The Guardian, 31 December 2021)

ENERGY

Nord Stream 2: Putin comments on pipelines’ progress

On 29 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the progress of the Nord Stream 2, saying: “Today the procedure of filling the second pipe of Nord Stream 2 with gas should be completed. The first string was filled in October… This new route will certainly serve to stabilize prices on the European market.” Meanwhile, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller stated: “The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is ready for operation.” The pipeline, completed in September 2021, is yet to receive approval from Berlin and Brussels. (Russia says Nord Stream 2 loaded with gas, no alternatives needed,” Deutsche Welle, 29 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Biden and Putin hold a telephonic conversation 

On 30 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden held a telephonic conversation that lasted for nearly 50 minutes. The two leaders agreed to continue talks till the bilateral meeting scheduled for 10 January 2022 in Geneva. Their second call in a month saw deliberations over the Ukrainian crisis. After the call, Russian spokesperson Yury Ushakov stated: “We are in principle satisfied with the contact that took place… It's important that the American side was willing to understand the logic and the essence of the Russian concerns that were outlined in the two documents that we sent to Washington and to NATO headquarters.” Commenting on the sanctions’ threat, Ushakov said: “(sanctions would) lead to a complete breakdown in ties between our countries and cause the most serious damage to relations between Russia and the west. Our president also mentioned that it would be a mistake that our descendants would see as a huge error.” The White House spokesperson Jen Psaki also made a statement, saying: “President Biden reiterated that substantive progress in these dialogues can occur only in an environment of de-escalation rather than escalation… He made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.” (Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin hold ′constructive′ phone call,” Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2021; David Smith, Biden and Putin exchange warnings during phone call amid rising Ukraine tensions,” The Guardian, 30 December 2021; Bryan Bender, Biden-Putin call ushers in new phase of diplomacy,” POLITICO, 30 December 2021)

 


31 December 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #86

Marking 30 years since the dissolution of the USSR

Italy recovers stolen antiques from the US; Erdogan urges Turks to save lira; France expected to make birth control free for young adults

Photo : BBC


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews 

Marking 30 years since the dissolution of the USSR

On 25 December 1991, thirty years ago, the President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev resigned. The Soviet empire which had lasted for nearly 70 years, covering 11 time zones, came to an end. It was one of those rare events in history when the world witnessed one of the two global superpowers falling apart. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was consequently created and 15 republics have emerged since. The very event, however, came as a shock to many. In France24’s ‘The Debate’, a researcher at Vilnius’ Vytautas Magnus University Tatsiana Chulitskaya, stated that although the event was not an unexpected one, as it was the logical development to everything that was taking place, the exact moment of the collapse would have come as a surprise. 

What led to the dissolution?

First, the political reasons. Internally, Chulitskaya states that Gorbachev’s policies of ‘glasnost’ and ‘perestroika’ “created ground for the systematic collapse of the USSR”. The Chernobyl nuclear plant disaster showed the political incompetence of the ruling empire – non-disclosure policies on publicly important information were causing problems. The case vividly demonstrated to the Soviet people that they needed the government to provide more information. The glasnost policy, thus, was the adequate answer to the people’s demands and expectations. Another popular theory, states the emotional and cultural component of the USSR, such as music, to have played quite a large part in the collapse. Externally, the oil crisis faced by the bloc led to dire economic issues. The war in Afghanistan, where the Red Army suffered setbacks was also a very important contributor to the Soviet fall. 

Second, the Almaty Protocol and the 1991 coup. On 08 December 1991, the leaders of three republics – Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus – met at Almaty along with almost every other Soviet republic. They decided to dissolve the USSR and created the CIS. The three-day-long coup of August 1991, led by then-President Boris Yeltsin, saw tanks in the streets of Moscow. The resistance was soon “thwarted”.

Fourth, the Gorbachev factor. The US journalist Craig Copetas believes that if it were not for Gorbachev, the entire Soviet system would have continued to crumble for a lot longer. He maintains that Gorbachev was “a democratic politician, of course with the nuances of the Soviet time’. The Geneva summit between US President Ronald Reagan and Gorbachev in November 1985 was a radical moment in the history of the USSR, says Gorbachev’s former spokesperson Andrei Grachev. “A new leader coming from the icy capital of the Soviet empire,” did turn heads. Although Gorbachev intended to remove the mistrust that reigned over bilateral relations, his image seemed to do more harm than good – a new, young, and vibrant leader did not garner immediate acceptance from the West; fresh blood implied vigour to a decaying empire, and this was dangerous for the West. However, Copetas said that the camaraderie between Gorbachev and Reagan worried the public since they were not used to cordial bilateral relations. 

Thirty Years Since

First, Gorbachev’s regret. In 2007, via an interview with France24, Gorbachev said: “No one sent me into retirement. I didn’t officially resign. The biggest mistake was in the collapse of the Soviet Union. It didn’t happen because of the West. That's rubbish. But you said that Gorbachev resigned. No, when I saw what had been agreed in Almaty, I went on television and I said: “I am ceasing my activities as President.” I couldn’t help but stop. I could have started turning it around. I could have convened the Old Congress of People’s Deputies, convened the High Soviet. I could have called in the Army. But I saw there would have been a split. It was obvious, despite what people voted for in March, that the union could have been saved.” Grachev commented on this regret stating that the three basic instruments of keeping the state alive – the KGB, the party, and the army – had betrayed Gorbachev. All that was left to do was to address the nation and let them know of the disintegration. 

Second, a renewed opportunity. Chulitskaya stated that for states like Belarus and other ex-Soviet members, the collapse indicated an opportunity to become a new state and start afresh. However, she says, what followed in many of these states is unfortunate. According to Kyiv Mohyla University Professor Olexiy Haran, many of these states that gained independence are now striving to really free themselves from the Russian grip.

Third, the Putin factor. Grachev termed Putin’s religion, if any, to be power. Putin believes that the “greatest tragedy of the 20th century” to be the USSR’s collapse – not the Second World War or the Holocaust. A former KGB agent and FSB chief, Putin does not hide his nostalgia for the Soviet era; however, unlike his Soviet predecessors, he was wise enough to stabilize present-day Russia by tapping into Russian nationalism. Even then, the country is still “plagued” by the same issues that the USSR faced. Russia has not yet dissolved, but it is definitely in crisis. As Clara Ferreira Marques states in Bloomberg: “The only question is what awaits at the other end, and how violent the transition period will be.” Putin has learnt his lessons well and today Russia continues to be a market economy that is more resilient and efficient than the Soviet one.

Fourth, the question of invasion in Russia and Ukraine. Since its independence, Ukraine has been attempting a balancing act between the east and the west. This, however, stopped with the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Many of the Ukrainians believe decommunization to be key to the country’s emancipation. Grachev and Copetas agreed on the belief that Russia would not invade Ukraine. Grachev added: “He will, however, show that he is capable of it and get from the West as much as he wishes. But he is too pragmatic to destroy the foundation of his power.”

References: 

Clara Ferreira Marques, Who Saw the Collapse of the USSR Coming?,” Bloomberg, 24 December 2021. 

What's left of the USSR? Remembering the break-up of the Soviet Union - The Debate,” France24, 23 December 2021. 

Gulliver Cragg, Ukraine's 'decommunisation' and the fall of Soviet symbols - Focus,” France24, 22 December 2021. 

FRANCE 24 English, Looking back: 30 years since the collapse of the USSR,” YouTube, 21 December 2021. 

Elena Volochine, The good old days? Positive feelings about Stalin abound in Russia - Focus,” France24, 20 December 2021. 

Elena Volochine, In Russia, the battle for the memory of Soviet repressions - Revisited,” France24, 17 December 2021. 

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

RUSSIA

Tolokonnikova, another dissenting figure to be labelled "foreign agent”

On 30 December, Pussy Riot punk group member Nadezhda Tolokonnikova was labelled as a "foreign agent" by the Russian authorities. This decision came after the court ordered the NGO Memorial to shut down for failing to mark its foreign-funded publications as "foreign agent". Tolokonnikova has been an art collector, a famous satirist and a prominent figure of dissent in Russia. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "she took part in a 2012 protest inside Moscow's Christ the Savior Cathedral. She spent nearly two years in prison." The authorities in the Kremlin have justified their actions by stating it to be in the country's interest as foreign agents are interfering in Russian affairs through NGOs, journalists and certain people in the country. (Russia labels Pussy Riot member, others as 'foreign agents’,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2021; Russia declares Pussy Riot member, art collector and satirist ‘foreign agents’,” France24, 30 December 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE

Portugal: Young adults file climate case against 33 countries

On 30 December, the BBC reported a group of six children from Portugal to have filed the first-ever climate case against 33 countries to counter climate change. In the past years, Portugal has been frequently exposed to wildfires and extreme heat waves due to human-induced climate change. The children have urged for the protection of the natural world and wish the same for future generations. The primary argument of the case revolves around how the existing government has failed to undertake the rightful measures to prevent the adversaries of climate change. According to the children, they have raised concerns stating the neglect of the government has taken away their individual right to life, privacy and non-discrimination under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The case has been accepted by the court and it has assured that it will be taken on priority. (Maarten Willems and Kate Vandy, COP 26: The teenagers suing 33 countries,” BBC, 30 December 2021)

COVID-19

The UK: Government builds temporary hospitals to deal with rising cases

On 31 December, the UK government announced plans to build temporary hospitals as Prime Minister Boris Johnson was concerned about the rapid surge of patients due to the rising COVID-19 cases. Johnson said: “Look at the people going into hospital now, that could be you. Look at the intensive care units and the miserable, needless suffering of those who did not get their booster, that could be you.” On 30 December, the UK saw a total of 189,000 cases fuelled by the Omicron variant. The National Medical Director Stephen Powis said: “Given the high level of Covid-19 infections and increasing hospital admissions, the NHS is now on a war footing.” Meanwhile, Johnson urged people to get tested, take booster shots and be “sensible” attending New Year's events. (‘War footing’: UK builds temporary hospitals to prepare for Covid-19 surge,” France24, 31 December 2021)

ECONOMY

Turkey: Erdogan urges people to save currency in form of Lira

On 31 December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged his citizens to keep their savings in the form of lira, reiterating that the country's currency was under control. The announcement comes as many people converted their savings into dollars and euros due to the currency crisis. According to Erdogan: “I want all my citizens to keep their savings in our own money, to run all their business with our own money, and I recommend this.” The beginning of the free fall in lira’s currency value was because of Erdogan's interference in economic policy. To correct the situation, a scheme was introduced where the state protected the converted local deposits from losses in terms of hard currencies. Despite the moves by Erdogan, the currency is still traded at 13.3 to USD one. The same was traded at 7.4 at the start of 2021. (Turkey: Erdogan tells savers to switch back to lira,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2021) 

GENDER

Spain: Femicides now included in gender-based violence statistics

On 31 December, Spain declared itself to be the first country to include the count of femicides on the official statistics of gender-based violence. According to Spain’s Equality Minister Irene Montero: “What is not named does not exist... We have to recognise all of the victims and make visible all forms of violence – all machista [sexist] killings – so that we can put in place policies for prevention, early detection and eradication.” Earlier, Spain filed femicides as gender violence if it found evidence of a relationship between the killer and the victim. After 01 January 2022, the definition of gender violence is set to be broadened to include the murder of any woman and child. Henceforth, cases will be analyzed according to five categories, from killings connected to sexual exploitation, trafficking or prostitution to the killing of minors. The decision to change the record-keeping did not occur instantly but after multiple high-profile cases and protests. This move was seen as essential in Spain where the majority of the murdered women had their partners or ex-partners being the murderer. (Ashifa Kassam Spain says it is first in Europe to officially count all femicides,” The Guardian, 31 December 2021)

France to provide free birth control pills to women between 18 to 25 

On 31 December, France announced birth control pills to be made available for all women between the ages of 18 to 25. The move is aimed to stop unwanted pregnancies and is seen as an extension to the existing program for minors. It is said that close to three million women will benefit from the program, getting easy access to contraceptive patches and jabs. According to the France Health Ministry: “As of January 1, 2022, the health insurance system will cover the cost of contraception and related procedures (annual consultation with a doctor or midwife, and biological tests) without advance payment.” Many European countries including Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway have made the usage of contraceptives free for its teens and minors; however, it is yet to do the same for its women aged 25 to 28 since they are not considered vulnerable. It is different only in the case of the UK where contraceptives are free for all. France easing the access of contraceptives for its women will set an example for other European countries. (France to make birth control free for women aged 18-25,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2021) 

INTERNATIONAL

Italy recovers stolen antiques from the US

On 30 December, Italian authorities recovered ancient artefacts worth EUR 10 million found in the US. Italian authorities and their US counterparts raided multiple locations in a joint operation to secure 201 pieces of antiques. The Carabinieri Cultural Protection Commander Roberto Riccardi said: "Investigators have reconstructed a chain leading from illegal excavations to art dealers to US museums, auction houses, art galleries and private collections." As reported by Euronews: "Some were bought by international auction houses, galleries and private collectors, as well as museums including the Getty Museum in Los Angeles and the Fordham Museum in New York." In addition, the Carabinieri and the FBI have been working together to trace several other ancient artefacts over the years. They have been successful in recovering artefacts worth EUR 427 million in 2021 alone. Italy is the current G20 Chairman and has used its authority to urge member nations to crack down on these artefact smuggling networks. ("Italy seizes ancient artworks worth €10 million from the US," Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2021; Theo Farrant, "Italy recovers €10 million worth of stolen artworks from around the world," Euronews, 31 December 2021)


30 December 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #85

Russia: Supreme Court Orders the closure of the International Memorial Human Rights Group

Ukrainian border force says the US financing military projects in the country; Turkish Defense Minister Akar offers to mediate in Bosnian crisis; Russian Deputy Prime Minister hopes for Nord Stream 2 to be activated soon

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Harini Madhusudan

Russia: Supreme Court Orders the closure of the International Memorial Human Rights Group

On 28 December, the Russian Supreme Court ordered for the closure of Memorial International, which stood as a chronicle of the Stalin-era purges and symbolized the post-Soviet democratization. Following the ruling to close the rights group and its regional branches, supporters of these organizations were seen shouting “Disgrace! Disgrace!” in the court. The prosecutors have accused the organization of not marking their publications with the “foreign agent” label. This is in the context of the Russian foreign agents’ law which mandates the groups and organizations to be labelled as “foreign agents,” when they receive funds from overseas. 

During the hearing on 28 December, the prosecutors claimed that the Memorial International organization had denigrated the memory of the Soviet Union and its victories while rehabilitating the “Nazi Criminals,” the prosecutor said, the Memorial “creates a false image of the USSR as a terrorist state and denigrates the memory of World War II.” As a response, the Memorial made a statement on the same evening saying they would appeal and find legal ways to continue their activities. The statement said: “Memorial is not an organisation, it is not even a social movement. It is a need of the citizens of Russia to know the truth about its tragic past.”

The Memorial International founded in the late 1980s is an amalgamation of locally registered organizations, that maintain a network, extensive archives in Moscow, and coordinate its work. The group have spent decades cataloguing the atrocities committed in the Soviet Union, specifically in the network of prison camps, the Gulag. The Memorial’s founders have denied the accusations of serious violations and revealed that only an insignificant number of documents may have missed the “foreign agent” tag. The decision would close the “Memorial International Historical, Educational, Charitable, and Human Rights Society, its regional branches and other structural units.” 

Supporters believe that the move by the supreme court signals an end to the Russian post-Soviet democratization process that began in the same month, thirty years ago. In a separate statement, Navalny’s team said the authorities had detained the heads of their dismantled offices in the Siberian regions of Tomsk and Irkutsk. Anton Orekh, a political analyst said, the closure of the Memorial was akin to the “public justification of Stalin purge.” The Auschwitz Memorial released their views on Twitter and said: “A power that is afraid of memory will never be able to achieve democratic maturity.”

Prior to the ruling, the Memorial’s leadership had hoped to receive broad public support that would stop it from its closure. They submitted more than 127,000 signatures in support of their cause. Parallelly, on 27 December, a court increased the 13-year prison sentence for the head of the Memorial Yuri Dmitriyev by two years. This purge against the independent organizations and the opposition in Russia is set to bring a lot of instability within the relations in Europe. It is believed that the Memorial would approach the European Human Rights system for its appeal. 

References:

Andrew Roth, Russian court orders closure of country’s oldest human rights group, The Guardian, 28 December 2021.

Russia’s Supreme Court orders closure of top human rights group Memorial, France24, 28 December 2021.

Russian court orders closure of leading rights group Memorial,” Al Jazeera, 28 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

NORTH MACEDONIA 

Socialists’ head Dimitar Kovacevski becomes prime minister-designate

On 28 December, the new leader of the ruling Socialists (SDSM) Dimitar Kovacevski announced that the party had approved him as North Macedonia’s prime minister-designate. The announcement came post ex-Prime Minister Zoran Zaev’s resignation in the week prior to 28 December. Kovacevski stated: “As the SDSM president and new prime minister-designate, I will be led exclusively by principles of unity, responsibility, dedication and efficiency.” Kovacevski is set to lead a government which will have to deal with issues ranging from the pandemic to the energy crisis. On 29 December, President Stevo Pendarovski will formally appoint Kovacevski to the position. The new leader is expected to form a new cabinet within 20 days. Reuters cited local media reporting that Parliamentary Speaker Talat Xhaferi stated the vote for the same was predicted for 15 or 16 January 2022. (New leader of North Macedonia's Socialists becomes PM-designate,” Reuters, 28 December 2021)

UKRAINE

The US financing projects in Ukraine, says border service

On 28 December, Ukrainian border service stated that the US would be financing surveillance and monitoring equipment in attempts to strengthen the country’s borders against Russia and Belarus. Reuters cited the border service to have stated: “... the projects worth USD 20 million involved the purchase of video recording systems and drones, as well as personal protective equipment for border guards.” Ukraine has received military support from the US since 2018. This fact has only let the Kremlin increasingly criticize Kyiv. (US helps Ukraine to strengthen its border with Russia, Belarus,” Reuters, 28 December 2021) 

REGIONAL

Turkish Defense Minister Akar comments on the Bosnian crisis

On 28 December, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said: "If desired, Turkey can work as a mediator in Bosnia and Herzegovina." He further mentioned to the CNN Turk broadcaster: "We view Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole. We have done all we can for its unity and stability, and we will continue to do so." Turkey has maintained close ties with Bosnia and has often praised Bosnia's wartime leader Alija Izetbegovic; Ankara has also maintained close relations with Bosnia's tripartite inter-ethnic presidency. As reported by Reuters, the recent tensions arose after "Serb lawmakers earlier this month voted to start pulling their autonomous Serb Republic out of Bosnia's armed forces, tax system, and judiciary". Turkey stated that the vote was "wrong, dangerous" as it could threaten the region's stability and called on the EU to intervene in the situation. ("Turkey offers to mediate in Bosnian crisis 'to ensure stability'," Reuters, 29 December 2021) 

COVID-19

Germany: Court rules to protect disabled people for fair COVID-19 treatment

On 28 December, the highest court of Germany declared that disabled people would be protected under the legally binding guidelines, if hospitals were forced to prioritize patients based on the severity of illness. The purpose of the law is to prevent unfair treatments as the cases increase due to the Omicron variant. The constitutional court ordered legislators to create a framework to protect disabled people. It also urged states to list down the criteria which doctors need to refer before choosing the patient for lifesaving treatment. According to the ruling: “no person shall be disregarded because of disability.” This issue did not emerge from COVID-19 alone, but has been a debate in Germany for years. The pandemic only helped fast track the ruling. Meanwhile, the Director of the German Institute for Human Rights has rejected the rule stating: “Vaccine status should not be allowed to play any role as to who should receive intensive medical treatment or not.” (Kate Connolly, German court rules disabled people must be protected in Covid triage cases,” The Guardian, 28 December 2021)

ENERGY

Russia: Deputy Prime Minister hopes for Nord Stream 2 to be activated soon

On 29 December, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak while speaking to RBC media stated that he believed the Nord Stream 2 would soon receive required certification and begin transits. The construction of the second pipeline was completed in September 2021; however, it awaits ratification from Berlin and Brussels. When questioned on the existence of backup plans if the pipeline failed to be certified, Novak answered: “We don't consider such options and we believe it will be launched in line with the timings, set for certification.” (Russia says failure to certify Nord Stream 2 is not an option -RBC,” Reuters, 29 December 2021) 

ENVIRONMENT

Poland: Morawiecki’s hopes for progress on the Turow mine issue

On 28 December, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki mentioned how Warsaw was hopeful of the new Czech Republic government in renegotiating the Turow mine issue. As reported by Reuters: "The European Union's top court told Poland to halt operations at the Turow mine on the border with the Czech Republic after Prague complained of environmental damage in Czech villages, which would also mean closing a nearby power plant." However, Poland did not halt operations even after the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ordered its closure. Morawiecki said the mine was crucial as it provided heat and electricity to the people of Poland. He was hopeful as the Czech Environment Ministry in November stated: "a new proposal from Poland on the settlement of a dispute was unacceptable, adding it would have to be discussed with the incoming government formed earlier this month following October's election." The mine was ordered to close as it caused environmental damage to the Czech villages close to Poland's border. (Poland hopes for progress in talks with Czechs over Turow mine,” Reuters, 28 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Biden and Putin to conduct telephonic conversation to discuss Ukrainian issue

On 30 December, the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the US President Joe Biden are set to hold a telephonic conversation at Putin’s request. Given the concerns raised by both the US and the Ukrainian governments, the two leaders will discuss the military build-up by Russia at the Ukrainian border. According to a senior US administrative official, Biden is expected to state that the US seeks diplomatic path over conflict. He said: “Biden is also expected to emphasize that talks with Russia ought to occur in "a context of de-escalation rather than escalation.” The call will be the second one between the leaders in December, since the previous call failed to provide clear conclusions. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “We believe that only through talks is it possible to solve all the immediate problems that we have in abundance between us.” (Ukraine-Russia tensions: Biden and Putin to hold new call,” Deutsche Welle, 30 December 2021)


29 December 2021, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #84

The EU's "taxonomy for sustainable activities”

Polish President Duda vetoes controversial media law; US and Russia to hold talks on 10 January 2022; German police under psychological stress due to continued COVID-19 protests

Photo : REUTERS/Kacper Pempel


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan

The EU's "taxonomy for sustainable activities”

On 09 December, the EU member states passed the EU Taxonomy delegated act. As per the act: “(the act) establishes the general framework for determining whether an economic activity qualifies as environmentally sustainable for the purposes of establishing the degree to which an investment is environmentally sustainable.” It aims to include an environment standard to the investments in the area of renewable energy, shipping, car manufacturing and buildings. According to the EU Financial Services Chief Mairead McGuinness: “This will help channel sustainable finance towards projects and businesses to help reach our climate targets.” So far, France, Poland, Finland, and Hungary along with many other countries have objected to the regulation; however, this was not enough to rule it out.

What is the EU taxonomy?

The EU taxonomy is a classification system to list down the activities that are environmentally sustainable and economic in nature. It is significant for the EU as it will boost its sustainable investments and help achieve the European Green deal. Through the taxonomy regulation, the company investors and policymakers can identify the activities that are considered as environmentally sustainable. Apart from identifying, this also implies redirection of investor companies towards more climate-friendly methods. The core objectives of this regulation include climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, the sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources, the transition to a circular economy, pollution prevention and control, protection and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems.

The purpose of the act

The passing of the taxonomy regulation is to meet various climate goals of Europe such as the European Green deal and its energy targets. Pandemic and post-pandemic recovery periods seem to be redirecting the investments into sustainability and this Act is timely to define what goes under sustainability. Through clear definition and a common language of sustainability, the redirected investments can be increased towards economies, businesses and societies, specifically in health, against climate and environmental distress. To make it happen, an action plan on financing sustainable growth is needed, which the Act serves. The regulation not only restricts the economic activities to be climate-friendly, but it also prevents companies from earning unproven environmental claims.

The way forward

A potential problem ahead for the EU’s sustainable agenda is whether to include gas and nuclear energy as part of the EU taxonomy. When it comes to nuclear, the vision of the member states differs. This divide has been the reason behind the one-year delay between the drafting and passing of the regulation. While France is just stepping into building nuclear reactors, countries like Germany and Belgium are shutting down their age-old reactors fearing the accumulation of nuclear waste.

The European Sustainable Investment Forum (Eurosif), which is a leading European membership association with a mission to develop sustainability through European financial markets, says natural gas and nuclear energy should not be included in the EU taxonomy. The reason is, it will change the nature of the EU taxonomy from sustainable activities to transitional activities. There are few sectors in the EU which are in need of a secure energy supply on a short-term basis and these sectors will slow down in achieving the energy targets of the EU.  

References:

Commission Delegated Regulation (Eu) 2021/2139,” Official Journal of the European Union, 09 December 2021.

Kate Abnett, EU passes first chunk of green investment rules, contentious sectors still to come,” Reuters, 09 December 2021.

Eurosif welcomes the implementation of the EU Taxonomy rules as of 1st January 2022,” Eurosif, 09 December 2021. 

EU taxonomy for sustainable activities,” European Commission, 2020.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

POLAND

President Duda vetoes controversial media law

On 27 December, President Andrzej Duda vetoed a law that was speculated to silence a channel in Poland called TVN24. Duda said: "I am vetoing it." His remarks followed the critical response by the EU and the US to the law. TVN24 was a US-owned news channel, and its board members reacted to the statement saying they accepted the veto "with appreciation and joy". As reported by The Guardian: "Law would have prevented companies outside the EEA from holding a controlling stake in Polish media companies." Duda mentioned that the law was vetoed as it could have violated an economic treaty with the US. Poland has been having issues with press freedom since the country's ruling party Law and Justice (PiS), was elected. According to Reporters Without Borders, since 2015, Poland has reached the 64th rank on the World Press Freedom Index, indicating a decrease in the country's press freedom. ("Polish president vetoes media law criticised by US and EU," The Guardian, 27 December 2021; "Polish president vetoes controversial media law criticised by US and EU," France24, 28 December 2021)

RUSSIA

Memorial International ordered to close

On 28 December, Russia's Supreme Court ordered the closure of the country's most prominent human rights group called Memorial International. The prosecutors accused Memorial saying it: "creates a false image of the USSR as a terrorist state and denigrates the memory of World War II." The judge ruled for closure for the group as it failed to label its foreign-funded publications as "foreign agent". The foreign agent tag is a law in Russia that activists and human rights organizations have criticized since it was introduced. The Memorial International was founded in the 1980's and has reported on the human rights issue since then. As written by France24, the Center also worked on "the rights of political prisoners, migrants and other marginalized groups, and highlighted abuses, especially in the turbulent North Caucasus region that includes Chechnya". Memorial said that it would appeal the verdict and the NGO's lawyer said: "We are positive that this motion is unlawful. Yet, this is a political decision." (Thibault Spirlet, "Top Russian court orders shutdown of human rights group Memorial," POLITICO, 28 December 2021; "Russia's Supreme Court orders closure of top human rights group Memorial," France24, 28 December 2021)

US and Russia to hold talks on 10 January 2022

On 28 December, The Guardian reported Russian and the US officials to have verified security talks between the two countries on 10 January 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland. According to The Guardian, the deliberations are expected to cover “Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, while Moscow will press demands that Nato pledges not to admit Ukraine and roll back the alliance’s post-cold war development”. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia would be taking a “hard line” during the negotiations. However, Kremlin Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated: “(there was) no need to invent an oversized agenda and to stuff it with issues, which have long been addressed through other channels, to serve one’s own interests.” Earlier on 27 November, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council had said: “When we sit down to talk, Russia can put its concerns on the table, and we will put our concerns on the table with Russia’s activities as well. There will be areas where we can make progress, and areas where we will disagree. That’s what diplomacy is about.” (Andrew Roth and Jon Henley, US and Russia to hold talks amid Ukraine tensions,” The Guardian, 28 December 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENT 

Germany: Katjuscha, the oldest polar bear in Europe, passes away

On 27 December, Europe's oldest polar bear called Katjuscha passed away at 37. The polar bear had an underlying heart condition and was suffering for some time. The zoo released a statement on Twitter saying: "Farewell Katjuscha! After almost four decades in the Berlin zoo, we have had to bid farewell to our Katjuscha." Since the Berlin Zoo had experts who cared for Katjuscha, she lived till the age of 37. In the wild, polar bears can only live for 25-30 years on average. The zoo director further commented, saying: "We have of course observed our senior citizen very closely over the past few years. Thanks to optimal veterinary care and daily medication Katjuscha was able to reach such a stately polar bear age." PETA campaign team leader Peter Höffken took the opportunity to mention how Germany should stop keeping polar bears in zoos. He further stated: "If the Berlin Zoo would publicly stand by an end to the keeping of polar bears, this would be a great step with a signalling effect for all other zoos with disturbed polar bears running around in circles." ("Europe's oldest polar bear, Katjuscha, passes away at Berlin Zoo," Deutsche Welle, 27 December 2021)

Spain: La Palma to restrict cruise ships citing environmental impact

On 27 December, The Guardian reported Balearic Islands’ officials to have sought to restrict vessels arriving at its largest port of Palma in Mallorca. From 2022, the port would see only three cruise ships arriving to the port per day. The historic five-year deal is expected to reduce the port arrivals by 13 percent when compared to statistics from 2019. In 2019, over 25 organizations had released a joint statement, calling for the reduced arrivals. It read: “The mega-cruise ship tourism arriving in Palma has grown in a way that is unsustainable and undesirable for our city, leading to serious environmental impact and increasing social protest.” The Regional Official in charge of Economy and Tourism Iago Negueruela said: “It means setting, for the first time, a real limit to the arrival of cruise ship passengers to Palma, something that would not have been possible without the will of the sector… We’re the first to do so in a port as large as Palma.” However, critics of the deal such as Platform Against MegaCruises, stated: “Three cruise ships a day – one of them with a capacity of more than 5,000 passengers – still seems to us a very high figure for what the city can bear… The regional government has missed out on the opportunity to make a courageous decision to safeguard residents of the Balearic Islands, their environment, their health and their right to the city.” Meanwhile, counter-organization Yes to Cruises’ spokesperson Álex Fraile stated: “Is the next step to restrict the arrival of aircraft at [Mallorca’s] Son Sant Joan airport?” (Ashifa Kassam,Palma to limit cruise ships after environmental concerns,” The Guardian, 27 December 2021)

COVID-19

Germany: Police under psychological stress due to continuous protests

On 29 December, the German Police Union raised concerns about the frequent COVID-19 protests and the psychological consequences faced by the police officers at work. The Union Chairman Oliver Malchow said: "The many coronavirus protests are putting a huge strain on our forces." The frequent protests and its rising intensity have taken a toll on the officers. The level of aggression towards police officials deployed has also increased lately. Malchow mentioned how 13 officers were injured the week prior to 29 December and additionally said: "Managers are working hard to reduce the stress on their staff, but this is becoming increasingly difficult". Germany has increased the number of personnel involved in dealing with the psychological service of the police, but the situation these days has been overwhelming. Continuous demonstrations and other assignments restrict officers from getting the help they need. Now with the new wave of cases caused by the Omicron variant, more restrictions will likely cause further protests. ("Germany: COVID protests put police under 'huge strain'," Deutsche Welle, 29 December 2021)


28 December 2021, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #83

Gender: The Pope’s comments on Gender Violence

Eighty per cent of NATO’s 2021 fighter jet scrambling was a response to Russia; Gallup International Association releases global happiness index; Germany to formulate new arms export policy

Photo : Nicole Winfield, Associated Press


IN FOCUS  

By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Gender: The Pope’s comments on Gender Violence  

Pope Francis on domestic violence

On 19 December, Pope Francis commented on the rising violence against women and named those who perpetuated it as "…almost satanic because it is taking advantage of a person who cannot defend herself". The Pope's recent remarks strongly expressed his concerns about the increasing violence against women. He mentioned these statements on an Italian broadcast called Canale 5. The show was called ‘Francis and the Invisibles’, showcasing diverse individuals struggling in life. The Pope engaged with the participants on the show; one of them, named Giovanna, was a survivor of domestic abuse. The Pope encouraged her by saying: "I see dignity in you because if you didn't have dignity, you wouldn't be here." He added: "Look at the Blessed Mother and stay with that image of courage." His meeting with Giovanna was an unexpectedly pleasant experience for her as she mentioned: "I knew he put people at ease, but I wasn't expecting this." 

On 01 February, the Pope in his "February prayers", denounced domestic violence and dedicated his devotion to female victims of violence. He further said: "The various forms of ill-treatment that many women suffer are acts of cowardice and degradation of all humanity. Of men and of all humanity." Pope Francis called on the people to support "…women who have suffered domestic violence during these months of lockdown". The Pope further brought attention to the problem, stating that domestic violence had many manifestations such as "psychological violence, verbal violence, physical violence, sexual violence". Pope Francis praised women who broke their silence and sought help; he also said that the Church could not look away and had to play an essential role in dealing with such issues. Pope Francis, in January 2021, had also spoken on femicide and violence against women in St. Peter's square. 

Rising issues of gender violence in Europe  

According to Reuters: "Police figures released last month showed that there are about 90 episodes of violence against women in Italy every day and that 62 per cent were cases of domestic violence." The European Institute for Gender Equality mentioned in their report that in 2015, 13.6 per cent of women in Italy "have been victims of physical or sexual intimate partner violence in their lifetime", out of which only 12.3 per cent of the women contacted the police and sought help.  

Pandemic restrictions, a cause of increasing gender violence  

Since the advent of the pandemic, cases of gender violence have rapidly increased as many women have been stuck at home with their potential abusers due to lockdowns and pandemic-related restrictions. The Pope, who has been speaking against gender violence for the last two years, stated: "The number of women who are beaten, abused in their homes, even by their husbands, is very, very high." In addition, UN reports stated that due to the pandemic, domestic violence intensified and, as indicated by The New York Times: " (the pandemic) also made women feel more vulnerable to abuse, sexual harassment and violence, impacting their emotional and mental health.” The Pope has been actively propagating issues of gender violence in his speeches, prayers and video calls as he empathized with many victims like Giovanna. He has been requesting the larger society to safeguard vulnerable women at risk and has raised prayers for victims of violence. Apart from Giovanna, the Pope met Maria, Pedro and Maristella, and talked about their issues.  

References: 

Elisabetta Povoledo, "Pope Says High Number of Domestic Violence Cases Is 'Almost Satanic'," The New York Times, 20 December 2021. 

Philip Pullella, "Domestic violence against women' almost satanic,' Pope Francis says," Reuters, 20 December 2021. 

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

GERMANY

Germany’s new coalition to formulate arms export policy

On 26 December, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the new coalition government would be introducing laws to constrict the exports of arms. The announcement comes as Germany sees a high record of weapons exports of EUR five billion to Egypt and Singapore. Exports shot up, specifically before former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s exit. Germany was exporting EUR 8.02 billion worth of arms before COVID-19, contributing 5.5 percent to the global arms exports in 2020. It has in 2021, scaled up to exports worth EUR 9.04. Although the existing government has denied claims of outdoing the legal framework, Baerbock stated that they were reviewing the arms export policy. The government is set to formulate a new export control law for regulating clearer criteria for the approval of arms exports. (Nik Martin, “Germany: Baerbock vows new law to curb weapons exports,” Deutsche Welle, 26 December 2021)

POLAND

Donald Tusk claims government’s use of Pegasus, “crisis for democracy”

On 28 December, Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk stated that the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) spied on its opposition, calling it the latest “crisis for democracy” after communism. The accusations followed a cybersecurity watchdog claiming that the Pegasus spyware had been used to single out opposition leaders, one among which was Civic Platform member Krzysztof Brejza, a scandal which the media has termed “Polish Watergate”. Calling for a parliamentary inquiry into the matter, current head of the Civic Platform party, Tusk added: “This is unprecedented in our history… This is the biggest, deepest crisis for democracy since 1989.” (“Claims Polish government used spyware is 'crisis for democracy', says opposition,” The Guardian 28 December 2021) 

RUSSIA

NATO: Eighty per cent of NATO’s 2021 fighter jet scrambling was a response to Russia

On 28 December, NATO stated that its fighter jets had been scrambled numerous times in 2021 in order to stop hostile aeroplanes which were mainly Russian-based. ‘Scrambling’ in military terms refers to the act of quickly mobilizing military aircraft in response to an immediate threat, which is usually a hostile aircraft. The alliance said that 290 of almost 370 missions were a response to Russian triggers; most of these interceptions took place in the Baltic region of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania where NATO runs an air-policing mission. A statement released by the alliance read: “Generally, intercepts occurred without incident as NATO planes take off to identify the approaching aircraft and escort it out of the area. Very few intercepted flights entered allied airspace.” However, the number of NATO interceptions that responded to Russia decreased by 60 in 2021 when compared to 2020. NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said: “NATO fighter jets are on duty around the clock, ready to take off in case of unverified flights near the airspace of our allies… NATO is vigilant, and we will always do what it takes to protect and defend all allies.” (“NATO scrambled jets 290 times due to Russian planes in 2021,” Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2021) 

MIGRATION

More than 400 migrants rescued off the Mediterranean Sea

On 27 December, the German NGO Sea-Watch rescued more than 446 migrants from a recent drowning incident in the Mediterranean Sea. As per the UN data, 1,600 people are said to have died in 2021. The rescue mission by the NGO was the fifth within three days while the Greek and Tunisian coast guards simultaneously carried out rescue missions. So far, migrants from Africa who attempt the crossing have had Italy as their destination. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has reported that the disaster is seen as one of the most fatal events in the Aegean Sea. (“German NGO rescues over 400 migrants over Christmas weekend,” Deutsche Welle, 27 December 2021)

SPORTS

Football players raise concern over FIFA proposal on biennial World Cup

On 27 December, star players of European football, France’s Kylian Mbappe and Poland’s forward Robert Lewandowski expressed concerns over FIFA’s biennial World Cup proposal. The governing body of FIFA in a recent summit announced the idea of holding the World Cup every two years instead of four. Along with the players, many European leagues such as the UEFA, Conmebol and the African governing body Caf have opposed the plan. They reasoned that FIFA, which is the best competition that happens every four years, requires players to be well-prepared both physically and mentally. The parties fear that if the event is conducted every two years, it will adversely impact both the health of the players and the quality of the game. According to Paris St-Germain forward Mbappe: “If people want to see the quality in the game, the emotion, to see what makes the beauty of football, I think we have to respect the health of players.” According to Bayern Munich striker Lewandowski: “We have so many games every year, so many tough weeks, not only the games but preparation for the season, preparation for the big tournaments…If we have a World Cup every two years, the expectation is the time where footballers play at a high level will go down ... It is physically and mentally impossible.” (“Kylian Mbappe & Robert Lewandowski voice concerns over a biennial World Cup,” BBC, 27 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Happiness Index 2021: Gallup International poll releases global happiness index

On 28 December, Deutsche Welle interviewed Gallup International President Kancho Stoychev regarding the association’s End of Year survey on global happiness and optimism. Gallup International Association (GIA) has been conducting a global tracking study on hope, happiness and economic expectations around the world for more than 40 years. According to Stoychev, this year’s survey concluded that “global public opinion is seriously concerned about economic prospects and expects a deepening of the crisis”, further adding that Europe led the charts in this regard with Eastern Europe seeing “an average of about two-thirds show a worsening of expectations”. The polls ranked Colombia as the happiest country while the unhappiest was Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Indonesia became the most optimistic country while Turkey became the most pessimistic. Justifying his homeland Bulgaria being ranked the second-most pessimistic country, Stoychev said: “Pessimism in Bulgaria is realism; it is not due to failed public dreams. It is rather a condemnation of the way Bulgarian society functions and, in that regard, it is rather a positive and productive attitude.” Regarding Germany, he stated: “... the Germans' consciousness is somehow irritated, tired and, in a way, not confident in itself. At the bottom of this could be a complex uncertainty — about the lockdowns, the vaccines, the complicated formula of the new government, the weak performance of the EU, the sharp confrontation between the West and Russia or about China.” On being questioned whether happiness could be measured, Stoychev stated: “... we do not look for their individual attitudes or preferences, but try to reflect public perceptions.” The GIA poll for 2022 stated that “38 percent of respondents believe that 2022 will be better than 2021, compared with 28 percent who expect a worse year and 2 percent who believe that 2022 will be no different from 2021”. (Christopher Nehring, “Gallup International: ′We cannot know our future, even though we think we can′,” Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2021) 


27 December 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #82

Germany’s nuclear waste problem

Google fined EUR 73 million by Russia for not acting on illegal content; 10,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border return to permanent bases; La Palma volcano eruption ends

Photo : alliance/dpa DW.com


IN FOCUS

By Padmashree Anandhan 

Germany’s nuclear waste problem

On 30 December, Germany announced that it will shut down three out of its last six nuclear power stations as part of the shift from nuclear power to renewables. It had begun closing down its nuclear plants following the Fukushima reactor meltdown that took place in Japan in 2011. It is said that the last remaining reactors Isar 2, Emsland and Neckarwestheim II have been scheduled to be shut down by 2022. According to the energy industry association Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) head Kerstin Andreae: “For the energy industry in Germany, the nuclear phase-out is final.”

What are the issues?

The phasing out of nuclear energy began when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel launched safety assessments of all nuclear power plants in 2011. Since then, many countries have started switching to other forms of energy production considering the problem of nuclear waste and safety.

Nuclear energy and coal have been a vital source for Germany contributing 57 per cent of electricity. This increased from 12.9 per cent to 14.2 per cent in the last quarter of 2021. With the shut down of nuclear plants, there is scope for the emergence of various issues. One, more dependency on coal which is not a climate-friendly option as it fuels pollution. Two, safety. It remains a threat both for people and the environment to live around a closed nuclear facility. Three, disposal of nuclear waste. Germany is yet to strategize a mechanism to clear the dump from the dismantling of nuclear reactors and it has already run out of space to securely store the radioactive material. So far, the government has marked 2031 to finalize permanent storage for nuclear waste. Four, due to the closing of the nuclear facilities, job loss is likely. Five, for Europe it’s a larger problem for its climate goals and energy crisis.

What does this mean for Germany?

First, the climate problem. Germany, which is shifting from nuclear energy to coal, needs to rethink whether it is a viable option for its high-end climate goals. The amount of pollution emitted from the use of coal and the parallel issue of handling the disposal of nuclear waste is a red flag for Germany’s environment.

Second, a possible site for nuclear disposal. With the Gorleben mine not qualifying the standards for holding the nuclear dump. Germany needs to act quickly to plan repositories that will hold good and prevent radioactive waves from affecting its people.

Third, a tricky challenge for the new government. The new coalition government will have to deal with the problem tactically before the patience amongst the public turns into protests.  

References:

Germany to pull the plug on three of its last six nuclear plants,” Reuters, 30 December 2021.

Nuclear power to the rescue?” Deutsche Welle, 07 December 2021.

Anne Maillet, “'Not in my backyard: The thorny issue of storing German nuclear waste,” France24, 06 December 2021.

Germany to shut controversial Gorleben nuclear waste facility,” Deutsche Welle, 17 September 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

POLAND 

Kaczynski condemns German efforts of changing EU into “fourth reich”

On 24 December, the Law and Justice party (PiS) leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski condemned German efforts at converting the EU into a “German fourth reich”, while speaking to Polish newspaper GPC. He said: “(some countries) are not enthusiastic at the prospect of a German fourth reich being built on the basis of the EU… If we Poles agreed with this kind of modern-day submission we would be degraded in different ways.” Poland, has earlier, accused the EU of “bureaucratic centralism” and stated that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) was “instrumentalized” for forwarding its “federalist ideas”. (“Polish deputy PM says Germany wants to turn EU into 'fourth reich',” The Guardian, 24 December 2021) 

RUSSIA

Google fined EUR 73 million for not acting on illegal content in the country

On 24 December, a court in Moscow ruled a judgment against Google and fined it EUR 73 million for not acting on content that the country deemed illegal. As reported by The Guardian, the court's ruling came after Russia "ordered companies to delete posts promoting drug abuse and dangerous pastimes and information about homemade weapons and explosives, as well as ones by groups it designates as extremist or terrorist". Russia's actions have been criticized as BBC reported that analysts speculated Moscow to use the campaign to further "…clamp down on free speech and online dissent". Moscow has additionally demanded big tech platforms like Google and Meta to set up companies in Russia by 01 January 2022; else, they would face potential restrictions and bans. ("Russia fines Google £73m over failure to delete 'illegal' content," The Guardian, 24 December 2021; "Russia fines Google over illegal content breach," BBC, 24 December 2021) 

SPAIN 

Canary Islands: La Palma volcano eruption ends 

On 25 December, Spanish officials on the island of La Palma announced the volcanic eruption to have ended. The declaration came after the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma, one of the Canary Islands, showed reduced activity for 10 continuous days. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez expressed his relief on the same and commented: “We will continue working together, all the institutions, to relaunch the wonderful island of La Palma and repair the damage caused.” He also termed the announcement “the best Christmas present”. The Spanish government has promised funding of EUR 225 million in recovery efforts. The Canaries’ Volcanic Emergency Committee Director Julio Perez said: “It’s not joy or satisfaction – how we can define what we feel? it ‘s an emotional relief. And hope. Because now, we can apply ourselves and focus completely on the rebuilding work.” The eruption began on 19 September 2021 and has till date caused property damage worth EUR 900 million. No casualties have been reported so far. (“Spain declares end to La Palma volcano eruption,” Deutsche Welle, 25 December 2021) 

REGIONAL 

Putin on Ukrainian border standoff: “We have nowhere to retreat”

On 26 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking on state television said: “We have nowhere to retreat… They have pushed us to a line that we can’t cross. They have taken it to the point where we simply must tell them ‘Stop!’” He further stated the threat posed by NATO if it were to deploy missiles from Ukraine which would reach Moscow in around five minutes. The statements followed NATO proposing to initiate talks with Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry was quoted by TASS saying: “We have already received this (NATO) offer, and we are considering it.” Putin also expressed his concern over long-drawn negotiations. He stated: “They will talk endlessly, talk endlessly about the need for negotiations, and do nothing. Except pumping the neighbouring country with modern weapons systems, and increasing the threat to the Russian Federation, which we have to do something with, somehow to live with… I don't see anything bad here. It puts everyone involved in this process in a certain framework. But there is only one goal for us – to reach agreements that would ensure the security of Russia and its citizens today and in the long term.” (“Putin says ′diverse′ options open to fight Western ′threat′,” Deutsche Welle, 26 December 2021) 

Russian troops along the Ukrainian border return to permanent bases

On 25 December, Deutsche Welle reported the Russian Defense Ministry to have released a statement that said: “the operations for the Southern Military District forces had taken place across a stream of southern regions, including Rostov, Krasnodar and Crimea.” Around 10,000 troops are said to have left the border – returning to permanent bases – after completing military drills which lasted for a month. This de-escalation comes amid hopes of talks between the US and Russia along with NATO which is scheduled for the beginning of January 2022. On 24 December, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on the same, saying: “to discuss de-escalation, we expect our opponents in Washington to provide specific answers to our proposals in January.” He also maintained that it was up to Russia how it dealt with its troops. He added: “Whatever Russia does with its troops, it does that on its own territory and we can’t allow anyone to challenge that sovereign right… Russia takes certain action to move and redeploy its armed forces on its territory in view of unfriendly moves by our opponents from Nato, the US and some European countries that have made unambiguous maneouvres near our borders, conducted reconnaissance flights and deployed warships.” There also exist possibilities of talks under the Normandy Format. (“Thousands of Russian troops leave Ukraine border,” Deutsche Welle, 26 December 2021; “Ukraine: Russian consulate in Lviv hit by molotov cocktail,” The Guardian, 24 December 2021) 

MIGRATION

Greece: 16 dead after migrant boat capsizes near Paros islands

On 25 December, 16 migrants died while crossing the Aegean Sea as their boat capsized near the island of Paros. Greek authorities carried out an extensive search operation that continued for almost two days, searching for survivors. This is the third incident of capsizing boats in three days that has led to the death of 30 migrants till now, and the recent trends suggest that the traffickers have changed their route for smuggling migrants. Earlier the coast of Greece was a lucrative entry point for migrants, but the extended high wall at the Turkish border and the Greek coast guard’s timely intervention of migrant boats has reduced the influx of people from this route. The locations where the recent boats capsized were Antikythera, Folegandros and Paros, and neither are close to the usual way for smugglers. The coast guard speculates that the ships were heading towards Italy to avoid getting caught by Greek authorities in the eastern Aegean Sea. (Niki Kitsantonis, "At Least 16 Dead After Migrant Boat Capsizes Off Greece," The New York Times, 25 December 2021; "At least 16 dead after third migrant boat in three days sinks in Greek waters," The Guardian, 25 December 2021)

Bodies of Iraqi Kurd migrants repatriated

On 26 December, the bodies of 16 Kurdish migrants who lost their lives trying to cross the English Channel were repatriated to Iraqi Kurdistan. According to UN reports, the 24 November incident has been the highest loss of migrants attempting to cross the channel since 2014. The incident claimed the lives of 27 migrants who tried to cross the Channel in a dinghy that deflated. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "Of the 27 who died, 26 have been identified. In addition to the 16 ethnic Kurds from Iraq, the victims included an Iranian Kurd, four Afghan men, three Ethiopians, a Somali and an Egyptian." French investigators are still probing the incident as the survivors mentioned they tried telephoning British and French emergency services, but neither responded to help. The repatriation was set to happen on 24 December but was postponed twice for various reasons. ("Bodies of Kurdish migrants who drowned in English Channel repatriated," Deutsche Welle, 26 December 2021; "Iraqi Kurds mourn their dead from Channel migrant boat tragedy as bodies repatriated," France24, 27 December 2021)

The UK: Authorities rescue 67 migrants trying to cross the Channel

On 25 December, the UK authorities rescued 67 migrants trying to cross the English Channel on Christmas. Minister of Justice Tom Pursglove said: "The public have been crying out for reform for two decades and that's what this government is delivering through our new plan for immigration," as the UK was reforming its nationality and borders bill to change its approach to people crossing the channel. He also mentioned how "the nationality and borders bill will make it a criminal offence to knowingly arrive in the UK illegally, and introduce life sentences for those who facilitate illegal entry into the country". In addition, this bill would strengthen the Border Force to deter vessels from crossing the Channel and encourage people to seek asylum in the first safe country they reach rather than crossing the treacherous Channel. ("Border Force picks up 67 people after Christmas Day attempt to cross Channel," The Guardian, 25 December 2021)


24 December 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #81

Russia's draft treaty with the US and NATO

Orban denies repealing “controversial immigration law”; Norwegian Christmas commercial portrays Santa Claus as gay; Blinken and Stoltenberg discuss Russia-Ukraine border standoff

Photo : BBC/ Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Dhanabalan 

Russia's draft treaty with the US and NATO

On 15 December, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs handed over a draft treaty to the US and proposed a draft agreement with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in an effort to de-escalate tensions in Europe. The crisis in Ukraine has been centre stage in Europe due to the troop build-ups on both sides of the border. A US senior administration official said that Washington was prepared to discuss the proposals but mentioned: "That said, there are some things in those documents that the Russians know are unacceptable."

Russia's eight-point draft treaty with the US

The draft mentioned both the US and Russia as parties and stated that the document was guided by the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations. The draft treaty had eight articles dealing with multiple issues from de-escalating tensions and cooperation to security and deterring military escalation. However, the US did not like the proposal and the White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said: "We will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy, free from outside interference.” The treaty also mentioned that the US and Russia would not place nuclear weapons outside their own sovereign territories. This would contradict the US’ nuclear-sharing arrangements with the European members of NATO. 

Russia's draft agreement with NATO member states

The draft agreement between the Russian Federation and NATO member states reaffirmed "... their aspiration to improve relations and deepen mutual understanding". The agreement had nine articles based on "reaffirming their commitment to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations" and were drawn up in English, French and Russian. NATO head Jens Stoltenberg ruled out any possible agreements that would deny Ukraine the right to join the alliance; he reiterated that it would be Ukraine's decision to be a part of the military alliance. A report by France24 highlighted the drawbacks of a few articles in the draft agreement. One of the articles mentioned: "not to deploy additional troops and weapons outside the countries where they were in May 1997 - before the accession to NATO of any of the former communist states in East Europe that for decades were dominated by Moscow." This would mean that NATO would have to abandon any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia if they agreed to the proposed draft agreement. 

The outcome of the proposals

The draft agreement and the treaty outline were proposed to reaffirm trust, security and to introduce confidence-building measures. Yet, the recommendations did not seem hopeful to de-escalate tensions between the parties. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow was ready to negotiate "without delays and without stalling" with both parties. However, the responses of the US and NATO members have not been positive as they did not find the treaty as a means of de-escalating tensions. Apart from the unacceptable provisions in the agreement and the treaty, Russia still has a 100,000-troop build-up on its side of the border. Moreover, NATO and the US are unlikely to compromise on the 1975 Helsinki final act. States have a right to decide on their foreign policy, leaving Ukraine space to decide if it wants to join NATO. Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lukasz Jasina added: "Russia is not a member of NATO and doesn't decide on matters related to NATO." As reported by The Guardian, all parties would have to "come to the table prepared to address the other's legitimate security concerns. Agreeing on the meaning of "legitimate" will consume long hours".  

References: 

Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees," The Washington Post, 23 December 2021. 

Russia demands US, NATO curtail activity in East Europe to defuse Ukraine crisis,” France24, 18 December 2021. 

Andrew Roth, “Russia issues list of demands it says must be met to lower tensions in Europe,” The Guardian, 17 December 2021. 

"Russia Ukraine: Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions," BBC, 17 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan 

HUNGARY

Orban denies repealing “controversial immigration law”; states EU “sabotaging European unity”

On 23 December, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that his government would abide by the decision to continue on its “controversial immigration laws”, defying the EU ruling against the same. In November 2021, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled against Hungary criminalizing those lawyers and activists who aided asylum seekers citing that it “breached” EU law and “failed to fulfil its obligations”. The Hungarian government’s defiance is set to cost itself “billions of dollars in cash”. The immigration law, also called the “Stop Soros law”, was passed in 2018 forbidding aid to asylum seekers. However, in Orban's end-of-year news conference held on 21 December, he stated the “obsoleteness” of the EU law amidst “massive migration”. He further added: “The reality is that we have to stop migrants at the borders… This can be solved by one thing: changing the European asylum rules, but this process has not even started yet.” Speaking on the EU withholding pandemic-recovery funds due to the breach of EU law, Orban said: “The whole process, from the point of view of the unity and the future of Europe, is the most brutal sabotage. This is what shatters the EU.” (“Hungary's Viktor Orban to defy EU over immigration law,” BBC, 23 December 2021)

ITALY

Pope Francis addresses COVID-19, conflict during Christmas prayer

On 25 December, Pope Francis warned about the worsening pandemic situation and called for a dialogue. Praying on Christmas, he also urged for peace on the conflicts and tensions in the Middle East, North Africa regions and Myanmar. He said: "We continue to witness a great number of conflicts, crises and disagreements, we have become so used to them (conflicts) that immense tragedies are now being passed over in silence; we risk not hearing the cry of pain and distress of so many of our brothers and sisters.” The Pope’s prayer was received by more than 2,000 public members and 200 religious figures. Other highlights from the Pope’s prayer were issues of gender violence and rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. (“Pope prays for end to pandemic, world conflicts in Christmas address,” Deutsche Welle, 24 December 2021)

REGIONAL

Claims of Russian mercenaries deployed in eastern Ukraine raise concerns 

On 23 December, Reuters reported four sources to have claimed the presence of Russian mercenaries in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine. One of the sources was cited saying: “There is a full house. They are gathering everybody with combat experience.” Responding to the claims, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “It’s the first we’ve heard of this and we don't know how reliable these assertions are.” Two of the four sources stated that the deployment was for “defensive purposes”. Ex-Prime Minister of Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and head of the Union of Donbass Volunteers Alexander Borodai said: “If and when it’s needed, we’ll call people - but there has been no call for now.” Borodai is also a lawmaker for Russia’s ruling United Russia. (Maria Tsvetkova and Anton Zverev, “Russian mercenaries deploy to eastern Ukraine - sources,” Reuters, 23 December 2021)

ENERGY

Serbia lithium project to be put on hold due to protests

On 24 December, Serbian mining group Rio Tinto decided to temporarily stop its controversial western Serbia lithium project worth USD 2.4 billion. The company had planned to develop the mine located in the western Jadar river valley to extract lithium that can be used in electric car batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. Initially, the company had stated that the project would benefit the environmental standards at domestic and EU levels. Apart from satisfying the environmental aspect of the society, it became part of the Serbian government's efforts to generate more investment and economic growth. In the recent weeks, protests have emerged demanding for the project to be banned. These protests have taken a political turn as the present administration fears its outcome in the nearing elections. According to the CEO of Rio Tinto Vesna Prodanovic: “We want to call for a public dialogue, to acquaint residents with all aspects of our project. It is extremely difficult in such an intense anti-mining and negative campaign to have a reasonable debate on any topic.” (“Rio Tinto puts Serbia lithium mine on hold,” The Guardian, 24 December 2021)

GENDER 

Norway: Christmas commercial portrays Santa Claus as gay

On 23 December, the BBC published a story on a recent Christmas advertisement that caught public attention. According to the article, the four-minute advertisement features “Father Christmas kissing a man waiting for him at home on Christmas Eve”. Created by Norway’s state-run Posten postal service, the commercial has crossed two million views online. Posten’s Marketing Director Monica Solberg commented: “We wanted to celebrate the 50-year anniversary since the abolition of a law prohibiting same-sex relationships… The magnitude of response took us a bit by surprise. We expected a reaction, but not to such an extent.” Criticisms did arise with some claiming that Father Christmas was being sexualized and Santa was “cheating on Mrs Claus”. Norway decriminalized homosexuality in 1972, and the acceptance to the advertisement only shows “Norway’s progressive approach to LGBT rights”. (Alexander Maxia, “Gay Santa ad highlights big shift in Norwegian society,” BBC, 23 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Blinken and Stoltenberg discuss Russia-Ukraine border standoff 

On 23 December, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and examined the Russian troop buildup along the Ukrainian borders. The US State Department released a statement following the announcement, which said: “They discussed NATO’s dual-track approach to Russia, noting the alliance remains ready for meaningful dialogue with Russia while standing united to defend and protect allies.” (“Blinken speaks with NATO secretary-general about Russia-Ukraine tensions,” Reuters, 23 December 2021)

Biden administration agrees to talks with Putin in early January 2022

On 23 December, a senior Biden administration official said that the US was set to have talks in early January 2022 with Russia. They would ready themselves to address the security proposals put forward by Moscow. Although both parties have agreed for the talks, the time and venue are yet to be decided. The US spokesperson commented on the Ukraine issue, stating: “Well facts are a funny thing and facts make clear that the only aggression we’re seeing at the border of Russia and Ukraine is the military build-up by the Russians and the bellicose rhetoric by the leader of Russia.” (Alexandra Alper, “White House says no agreement on new Biden-Putin talks,” Reuters, 23 December 2021)


23 December 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #80

Moscow: Putin’s Annual Press Conference

Putin concerned as the US continues to supply weapons to Kyiv; Brussels to turn off all its nuclear plants by 2025; Sixteen Western countries issue statement against Russian involvement in Mali

Photo : Sputnik News


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews 

Moscow: Putin’s Annual Press Conference

On 23 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin while addressing the annual press conference stated: “This is our (preferred) choice, we do not want this (conflict with Ukraine) ... We have to think about ensuring our security prospects not just for today and next week but for the near future.” He further stated: “They keep telling us: war, war, war. There is an impression that, maybe, they are preparing for the third military operation (in Ukraine) and give us a fair warning: do not intervene, do not protect these people but if you do intervene and protect them, there will be new sanctions. Perhaps, we should prepare for that.” The four-hour-long conference also saw Putin commenting on various other issues such as Russia’s escalating inflation rate which he termed “a serious challenge”; other subjects covered included that of the surging COVID-19 cases. There was even a mention of Kremlin-critic Alexei Navalny.

Commenting on the response to recent security proposals given to the US and NATO, Putin said: “Our actions will not depend upon the negotiations, they will depend on the unconditional compliance with Russian security demands… We have so far seen a positive reaction. US partners told us that they are ready to begin this discussion, these talks, at the very start of next year.” Putin further claimed NATO to have “cheated” Russia by expanding eastwards. He said: “We just directly posed the question that there should be no further NATO movement to the east. The ball is in their court, they should answer us with something.” Responding to his allegations, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg denied retaliatory military actions during Christmas and said: “It’s a significant military buildup and there are no signs this is stopping or slowing down.” 

Putin, however, blames the West for escalating tensions. He said: “Is it us who are putting missiles near the US borders? No, it’s the US who came to our home with their missiles. They are already on the threshold of our home. Is it some excessive demand not to place any offensive systems near our home?” However, the Kremlin head expressed hope in the talks scheduled for 2022 in Geneva. He said: “American partners tell us that they are ready to launch this discussion, these talks in Geneva at the very beginning of next year. Both sides’ representatives have been appointed. I hope that the situation will unfold exactly under this scenario.” A Kremlin official also commented on the January talks, saying: “I expect we will have our substantive response in those (January) talks… clearly, there are some things that have been proposed that we’ll never agree to. I think the Russians probably know that on some level. I think there are other areas where we may be able to explore what’s possible.” 

Concerns also arose from regional actors, with Lithuanian Defense Chief Lieutenant General Valdemaras Rupsys warning: “It’s possible that in case of escalation (in Ukraine), or, if we see that Belarus could be finally occupied (by Russia), extra NATO troops could be deployed in Lithuania.”

Putin concluded the conference on a strong yet thoughtful note. He stated: “I remind you of what our adversaries have been saying for centuries: ‘Russia cannot be defeated, it can only be destroyed from within.” 

References:

Vladimir Soldatkin, Putin says Russia doesn't want conflict but needs 'immediate' guarantees,” Reuters, 24 December 2021.

Russia: Putin addresses Ukraine, NATO tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 23 December 2021.

Andrew Roth, Putin accuses west of 'coming with its missiles to our doorstep',” The Guardian, 23 December 2021.

Sarah Anne Aarup, Putin demands Western security guarantees to end the threat of Ukraine invasion,” POLITICO, 23 December 2021.

Putin says Russia doesn't want Ukraine war but needs 'immediate' guarantees,” France24, 23 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

RUSSIA

Putin raises concerns on the US supplying weapons to Ukraine

On 21 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised concerns about the US and the West's aggressive stand on Ukraine. Putin said: "What the US is doing in Ukraine is at our doorstep... And they should understand that we have nowhere further to retreat. Do they think we'll just watch idly?" Putin made these remarks as he felt Russia had no room to retreat if the US supplied more weapons to Ukraine. Moscow also rejected claims of planning a Ukrainian invasion and instead stated that they wanted to de-escalate tensions via the draft agreement and treaty. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned that an in-person meeting between the two heads would not be possible as the situation continued to be diplomatically sensitive. The US, in the meantime, has planned to continue exporting military equipment and supplies to Kyiv. (Mark Trevelyan, "Putin says Russia has 'nowhere to retreat' over Ukraine," Reuters, 22 December 2021; "Russia simply has "nowhere to retreat" if US weapons appear in Ukraine — Putin," TASS, 21 December 2021)

REGIONAL

Germany and France call for a renewed ceasefire in eastern Ukraine

On 23 December, Germany and France called on Ukraine and pro-Russian separatist forces to respect the ceasefire pledge in eastern Ukraine. Germany and France gave a joint statement saying: "We urge the sides to respect the ceasefire and to continue discussions on further steps in the humanitarian field, e.g. the opening of crossing points and the exchange of detainees.” Ukraine claimed pro-Russian separatists had violated the peace three times and the escalating situation urged Germany and France to de-escalate tensions. Furthermore, Berlin and Paris reminded the separatists of the 2019 Paris summit's conclusions and urged the parties to abide by it. (Sarah Marsh and Maria Sheahan, "Germany, France urge all sides to respect eastern Ukraine ceasefire," Reuters, 23 December 2021; "Germany and France urge pro-Russian forces and Ukraine to stick to ceasefire," Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2021) 

COVID-19

WHO head warns of another wave as Omicron cases surge

On 22 December, the World Health Organization's (WHO) Europe head Hans Kluge warned of another COVID-19 wave given the significant increase in cases. Kluge said: "We can see another storm coming…Within weeks, Omicron will dominate in more countries of the region, pushing already stretched health systems further to the brink." His statements come after cases of Omicron were detected in at least 38 countries across Europe. Kluge also urged people to get booster shots to tackle the spread of the virus and stated: "The booster is the single most important defence against Omicron." The new variants' effects have been moderate until now and show common COVID-19 symptoms. However, Kluge is concerned about the rapid increase in cases that could lead to hospitalization and disruption of health systems in Europe. ("WHO's Europe chief says 'another storm coming' as Omicron takes hold," The Guardian, 22 December 2021)

ENERGY

Belgium: Brussels to turn off all its nuclear plants by 2025

On 23 December, Belgium declared that it would close all its nuclear reactors by 2025. The current government had committed to this target when it was elected to office in October 2020. Belgium will shut down its seven nuclear reactors, but it plans on opening doors and funds to smaller generators. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo said that his government's objective was "to fully opt for innovation…In concrete terms, this means that we will invest in research into newer technologies". As reported by Deutsche Welle, Belgium's stance comes in line "...as the European Commission prepares a so-called EU taxonomy, in which it lists what the bloc considers as environmentally sustainable economic activities". EU members have a divided opinion on nuclear energy being sustainable as France pushes for green use of the power while Germany intends to shut down its last nuclear plant by 2022. ("Belgium agrees to close controversial ageing nuclear reactors," BBC, 23 December 2021; "Belgium to close all current nuclear reactors by 2025," France24, 23 December 2021; "Belgium to close all existing nuclear power plants," Deutsche Welle, 23 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 

Germany: Foreign Minister assures plan of action for evacuation in Afghanistan

On 23 December, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the German government would take all the measures to evacuate all those in need of protection from Afghanistan. She outlined the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and Germany’s plan of action to hasten the evacuation. So far, the government has promised to rescue 15,000 people from the region, which includes 135 Germans. According to Baerbock: “Major sectors of the economy have collapsed, many people are starving, one can hardly bear it when one reads that families in their desperation are selling their daughters to buy food.” (Afghanistan suffering ′humanitarian catastrophe′ says Germany Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock,” Deutsche Welle, 23 December 2021)

16 western countries issue statements against Russian involvement in Mali

On 23 December, 16 western countries released a joint statement accusing the deployment of Russian mercenaries in Mali. The statement said: “This deployment can only further deteriorate the security situation in West Africa, lead to an aggravation of the Human Rights situation in Mali, threaten the Agreement for peace and reconciliation in Mali.” The situation in Mali took an adverse turn when French President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of troops from the Sahel region by early 2022. It is believed that Russia has been supporting the government with a private military which it has denied. This was identified when the private military was seen helping pro-Russian separatists in the Eastern Ukraine Conflict. The EU has also levied sanctions on the Wagner group due to its human rights violations. The issuing of the statement is seen as a strong disagreement from the West against the Russian involvement in the region. (West condemns ′deployment′ of Russian mercenaries in Mali,” Deutsche Welle, 23 December 2021; Mali: West condemns Russian mercenaries 'deployment',” BBC, 23 December 2021)

EU and Germany call for dialogue to resolve the issue of Ukraine

On 23 December, EU high representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell responded to Russia’s controversial security demands that were put on 17 December. The diplomat alleged that Russia was causing deterioration to Europe's security and called for a dialogue to resolve the Ukrainian issue. On 22 December, the EU released a statement: “They underlined that any further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe costs.” The EU representative spoke on the same lines with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss the Russian proposals. With regard to the issue, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has called for Berlin to take a stronger stance against Moscow compared to the previous government and has also highlighted the need for a dialogue to prevent the conflict. (Jennifer Rankin, Russia causing ‘severe deterioration’ of European security – EU,” The Guardian, 23 December 2021; Germany urges dialogue with Russia, says 'greatly concerned' by Putin military threat,” France24, 22 December 2021)


22 December 2021, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #79

Poland: Infringement procedure initiated against Poland over rule of law violations

Belarusian anti-government protestors receive long jail terms; WHO Director criticizes developed nations on COVID-19 booster programmes; Russia confirms talks with the US for early January

Photo : Emerging Europe


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

BELARUS

Anti-government protestors receive long jail terms

On 22 December, a court in Belarus sentenced four anti-government protestors to 18-20 years in prison. The four protestors were sentenced for ‘terrorism’ and ‘arms trafficking’ offences while accusing them to be members of an anarchist group. The individuals were found with weapons and explosives, and during the protests, they had set several police cars on fire and thrown Molotov cocktails at an administrative building. In October 2020, while crossing the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, they were caught and charged with arson. The incident and ruling have brought to light President Alexander Lukashenko's use of courts and police for his political advantage. This comes amidst the West continuing to not acknowledge Lukashenko as Belarus’ legitimate leader and placing several sanctions on his regime. ("Belarus: Lengthy prison terms for anti-government protesters," Deutsche Welle, 22 December 2021)

DENMARK

Minister Stojberg voted out for violating human rights laws

On 21 December, former Danish Immigration Minister and current Parliament member Inger Stojberg was voted out by her fellow lawmakers. She had recently been given a 60-day prison sentence for separating underage couples while they were seeking asylum in the country. Social Democratic party spokesperson Jeppe Bruus said: "The conclusion in the case must be, that Mrs Inger Stojberg's conviction at the impeachment court is incompatible with being a member of parliament." Danish and human rights laws are in line while assessing cases of refugee couples, married or in a relationship. These cases were to be evaluated individually, and no blanket law was to be followed. Under Stojberg’s tenure, 23 under-age couples were separated. After the ousting, Stojberg said: "I would rather be voted out by my colleagues here in parliament because I have tried to protect some girls than getting voted out by the Danish people because I have turned a blind eye." ("Denmark: Former immigration minister facing jail voted out of parliament," Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2021; Nikolaj Skydsgaard and Angus MacSwan, "Danish ex-minister ousted from parliament after impeachment," Reuters, 21 December 2021)

POLAND 

European Commission initiates infringement procedure against Poland over rule of law violations

On 22 December, the European Commission declared the initiation of an infringement procedure against Poland for violating EU law via its Constitutional Tribunal. A “letter of formal notice” has been sent to Poland; financial penalties are set to follow if the latter fails to meet EU requirements and reply within two months. Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal had earlier stated that state law took precedence over EU law. This made the European Court of Justice (ECJ) rule against the Tribunal, with the European Commission stating it “has serious doubts on the independence and impartiality” of the Polish court. The Commission further stated: “(The Tribunal ruling was) in breach of the general principles of autonomy, primacy, effectiveness and uniform application of Union law and the binding effect of ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ).” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki responded to the move on national television, saying: “... a trend for… bureaucratic centralism is unfortunately progressing in Brussels but it has to be stopped.” Meanwhile, Polish Deputy Justice Minister Sebastian Kaleta tweeted: “The EC (European Commission) is initiating proceedings and wants to subordinate the Constitutional Tribunal in Poland to EU law… This is an attack on the Polish constitution and our sovereignty.” (EU starts new legal action against Poland over rule of law,” Deutsche Welle, 22 December 2021; Jennifer Rankin, Brussels launches legal action over Polish rulings against EU law,” The Guardian, 22 December 2021)

COVID-19

Romania: Protests triggered over green pass mandate

On 21 December, more than 2,000 people gathered for protests before the Romanian Parliament in Bucharest against the imposition of COVID-19 green passes at workplaces. In the recent months, Romania has experienced a severe surge in the COVID-19 infections; this worsened the situation as the previous waves had adversely affected the country’s health care facilities. The latest surge owes to the fact of Romania being the second-lowest vaccinated country in the EU. Despite efforts of the coalition government to mandate a health certificate at workplaces to increase vaccination, the outcome has only been protests. Another reason behind the protests is also said to be the opposition party, which opposes the green passes. (Romanians protest COVID certificates,” Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2021; Romanian crowd tries to storm parliament in protest at COVID-19 pass,” Reuters, 21 December 2021) 

WHO Director criticizes developed nations on COVID-19 booster programmes

On 22 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus criticized the COVID-19 booster programmes of the developed nations. He stated that such programmes only provide a chance to the pandemic to protract since it took away the poor countries’ chance to recover or immunize its populations. According to Ghebreyesus: “Blanket booster programs are likely to prolong the pandemic rather than ending it, by diverting supply to countries that already have high levels of vaccination coverage, giving the virus more opportunity to spread and mutate.” On the question of the new variant’s capacity to spread, WHO has commented that it is too early to disclose the severity of the infection. (COVID: WHO rails against vaccine booster programs,” Deutsche Welle, 21 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 

Lavrov confirms talks between Russia and the US for early January

On 22 December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov verified that they would initiate talks with the US in early 2022. Speaking at an interview with RT television station, Lavrov said: “The first round will be held in the form of a bilateral contact between our and US negotiators, who have already been named and are acceptable for both sides… We do not want war. We do not need conflicts and, hopefully, everyone else does not view conflicts as a desirable course of action.” Although the West is yet to confirm any such talks, they intend to dialogue with Russia. On 21 December, a statement released by the German government read that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a telephonic conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the “increased Russian military presence near Ukraine”; Scholz reportedly “expressed his concern about the situation and the urgent need for de-escalation”. On 21 December, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg commented on maintaining dialogue with Russia, as he stated: “Any dialogue with Russia needs to be based on the core principles of European security and to address Nato’s concerns about Russia’s actions. And it needs to take place in consultation with Nato’s European partners, including with Ukraine.” (Russia: Security talks with US and NATO set for January,” Deutsche Welle, 22 December 2021; Andrew Roth, David Smith, and Dan Sabbagh, Russia claims it will begin talks with US and Nato,” The Guardian, 22 December 2021)


21 December 2021, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #78

IMF: Belarus economy severely impacted under Western sanctions

Ukraine’s National Bureau of Investigation condemns former President Poroshenko of “treason”; Moscow calls on the US to fasten considerations on security proposals; WHO Chief hopes to end pandemic by 2022

Photo : Reuters


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

BELARUS 

IMF: Belarus economy severely impacted under Western sanctions

On 20 December, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff stated that sanctions imposed by the West on Belarus were impacting the latter’s economy. It further suggested Minsk to slash fiscal expenditures to decrease foreign-currency borrowing. The statement released by the IMF read: “Risks to this outlook are large and revolve around geopolitical tensions, the possibility of further waves of COVID outbreaks, the impact of international sanctions, and contingent liabilities in the public sector… These major risks make a strong case for careful contingency planning.” Reuters reported the statement to have said that the present set of sanctions reduced the possibility of “rolling over expiring debt and new borrowing on Eurobond markets”. The statement also included: “Although the authorities can continue to borrow on other markets, institutions and countries, a further reduction of the fiscal deficit in 2023 would alleviate pressure to issue new debt… A key concern is that 93 percent of public debt is denominated in foreign currency and thus vulnerable to exchange rate movements.” (David Lawder, IMF says Belarus squeezed by Western sanctions, spending should be cut,” Reuters, 21 December 2021)

TURKEY 

Business leaders condemn actions of Erdogan towards monetary policy

On 20 December, the Turkish lira was expected to recover after the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speech, however, it further declined. Despite the annual inflation ranging at 20 percent, Erdogan’s efforts to make the central bank lower the borrowing cost has not stopped. The president has backed his actions stating that it was Islam that led him to the decision. Critics believe that the rise in inflation rates is due to the “Islamic-infused” experiments of Erdogan and expect an increase by 10 percent in the coming months. In response to the decline in the Turkish lira, the business leaders (TUSIAD lobby) have condemned the steps taken by Erdogan towards correcting the monetary policy. (Turkish lira hits turbulence as Erdogan cites Islam as reason for monetary policy,” Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2021)

UKRAINE 

National Bureau of Investigation condemns former President of “treason”

On 20 December, Ukraine’s National Bureau of Investigation accused former President Petro Poroshenko of “committing treason” and backing “terrorist organizations”. The accusations suspect him of having supported the separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk during 2014-2015 to sell coal worth EUR 48.7 million. Poroshenko, who was president from 2014 to 2019, is widely regarded as pro-Russian. Following the condemnations, Poroshenko was reported to have left Ukraine and is expected to return only after the New Year holidays. (Ukraine ex-leader Petro Poroshenko accused of ′treason′,” Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2021)

COVID-19

WHO Chief hopes to end pandemic by 2022

On 20 December, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: "2022 must be the year we end the pandemic." Ghebreyesus wants the world to get back to normal, but the new Omicron variant has raised concerns. He urged the world's people to cancel events "now and celebrate later than to celebrate now and grieve later," as cases have been increasing rapidly. Ghebreyesus also stressed the need to bring vaccine equality, as he said: "If we are to end the pandemic in the coming year, we must end inequity." Halting the pandemic was a possibility, but Ghebreyesus mentioned that vaccination, mask-wearing and social distancing were the tools to stop the pandemic to an extent. (WHO chief: World must pull together to ‘end the pandemic’ in 2022,” France24, 20 December 2021) 

GENDER

The Pope comments on domestic abuse

On 20 December, Pope Francis condemned violence against women and called it "almost satanic". The recent comments came as he spoke to a panel of four people, including one who was a domestic abuse survivor. He further said: "The number of women who are beaten and abused in their homes, even by their husbands, is very, very high." The Pope spoke to Giovanna, a member of the panel who was a victim of domestic abuse and mentioned: "I see dignity in you because if you didn't have dignity, you wouldn't be here… Look at the Blessed Mother and stay with that image of courage." The Pope has addressed domestic violence issues since the pandemic began as cases of the same saw an increase during the lockdowns. (Pope Francis condemns domestic abuse as 'almost satanic’,” BBC, 20 December 2021; Pope Francis says domestic violence against women ‘almost satanic’,” The Guardian, 20 December 2021)

MIGRATION

NGO files lawsuit against France and the UK for English Channel migrant deaths 

On 20 December, an NGO called Utopia 56 filed a lawsuit against France and the UK for failing to act and rescue migrants whose boat capsized on 24 November. At least 27 people lost their lives in the incident, with two survivors claiming the migrants made distress calls to France and the UK. However, the response they received was: "…if I call 999 they say call France and when we call France they tell us to contact the UK. Both couldn't care less." This led to Utopia 56 filing a complaint to the Court of Appeals of Paris, reported by Euronews: "…to the prosecutor of the Paris Judicial Court for manslaughter and failure to provide assistance." The tragedy brought in a political crisis as France and the UK blamed each other for causing the issue and not deterring people from crossing the Channel. (France, UK authorities face manslaughter lawsuit over deaths of migrants in Channel boat tragedy,” France24, 20 December 2021; NGO sues French and British authorities over Channel migrant boat tragedy,” Euronews, 20 December 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Belgium: Ministry of Defense tracks down 23 December cyber-attack 

On 20 December, Belgium’s Ministry of Defense detected a cyber-attack which occurred on 23 December. It is said that the hackers had targeted a loophole in a software called Log4j. Researchers had previously warned that the state-backed hacking groups which had ties with China, Iran, North Korea and Turkey had made use of the susceptibility to hack rival networks. According to a spokesperson for the Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder: “the ministry's teams have been working hard in the past days to secure its networks.” He also added the government’s plans to further its investment in cybersecurity. (Laurens Cerulus Belgian defense ministry hit by cyberattack,” 20 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 

Moscow calls on the US to fasten considerations on security proposals

On 20 December, Russia stated it required a reply from the US regarding the security demands the former had proposed. Russia’s “wishlist of security proposals” became quite controversial after the US stated that some of the terms in it were unacceptable. According to White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had conversed with Russian counterpart Yuriy Ushakov regarding the same. She said: “(Sullivan) made clear that any dialogue must be based on reciprocity and address our concerns about Russia’s actions, and take place in full coordination with our European allies and partners. He also noted that substantive progress can only occur in an environment of de-escalation rather than escalation.” Meanwhile, RIA news agency quoted Russian diplomat in Vienna Konstantin Gavrilov saying: “The conversation needs to be serious and everyone in NATO understands perfectly well despite their strength and power that concrete political action needs to be taken, otherwise the alternative is a military-technical and military response from Russia.” (Tom Balmforth,Russia presses for urgent US response on security guarantees,” Reuters, 21 December 2021)


20 December 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #77

Poland: Protests erupt post demands to veto controversial media law

German Defence Minister visiting troops in Lithuania condemns Russian actions; World Economic Forum postpones its annual meeting for 2022; UK Foreign Secretary Truss takes over as new Brexit minister

Photo : AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski


IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan 

POLAND 

Protests erupt post demands to veto media law

On 19 December, Poland saw protests erupting across major cities as Polish President Andrzej Duda was called on to veto a controversial media law. Around thousands of demonstrators even gathered outside the presidential palace. One of the protestors commented on the bill, stating: “We need free speech. I would like the president not to sign it.” According to critics, the new law is a coercive effort at selling US-owned TVN24. The lower house of the Polish parliament, called the Sejm, reconsidered the legislation without notice during the closing session for 2021. The bill had been previously voted down by the Senate which is the upper house. The protests come amid concerns of increased repression of media freedom in Poland. Civic Platform member and Senator Bogdan Klich commented on the bill, saying: “At this moment we are talking about TVN, but it is not just about TVN. It’s about the future of free speech in Poland, about the future of our democracy.” The US State Department spokesperson Ned Price released a statement on the legislation. He said: “The United States is deeply troubled by the passage in Poland today of a law that would undermine freedom of expression, weaken media freedom and erode foreign investors confidence in their property rights and the sanctity of contracts in Poland.” The European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova also responded to the bill: “Once this bill becomes a law, the commission will not hesitate to take action in case of non-compliance with EU law.” (“Poland: Protesters urge president to veto media law,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2021; “'We need free speech': protests erupt across Poland over controversial media bill,” The Guardian, 20 December 2021)

RUSSIA

Foreigners to be tested every three months for diseases and drugs

On 19 December, The Russian parliament implemented an amendment that was passed in June 2021 regarding a law that requires foreigners working in the country to undergo medical check-ups. According to Deutsche Welle, the law would require foreign professionals and their family members to be tested every three months for "syphilis, HIV, leprosy, tuberculosis, and COVID-19". The rules even apply to children over the age of six, and if any foreigner tests positive for the diseases above mentioned, their visa would either be declined or revoked. German Russian Chamber of Commerce spokesperson Thorsten Gutmann said: "Originally, people were going to be required to take the tests every time they entered the country, but now they will have to do them every three months." Germany has been trying to get the new regulations dropped but have been met with minimal success. Ten foreign business associations such as the Association of European Businesses and the American Chamber of Commerce have appealed to Russia regarding the new rules. The new rules would cause severe impediments to Russia's economic development and foreign investments. (Sergei Guscha, “Foreigners in Russia outraged by new medical checks,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2021)

Two German diplomats expelled in retaliation to Berlin 

On 20 December, Moscow expelled two German diplomats in a tit-for-tat move to Berlin. On 16 December, Berlin had sent back two Russian diplomats after a German court ruled a life-imprisonment sentence for a Russian national as he was speculated to be an FSB agent. The Russian Foreign Ministry said: "The German ambassador was informed that two diplomatic employees of the German embassy in Russia were declared 'persona non grata' as a symmetrical response." The German government criticized the move as it aggravated tensions between the two countries. Germany's Foreign Ministry said: "This move comes as no surprise, but it is completely unwarranted from the federal government's perspective." The retaliatory behaviour owed to a ruling by the Berlin court where a Russian national called Vadim Krasikov had shot and killed an ethnic Chechen of Georgian nationality. The Berlin court mentioned that the act was in "retaliation" as the victim was an opponent of the Russians. ("Russia expels 2 German diplomats over Berlin park assassination," Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2021; "Russia Expels 2 German Diplomats in Tit-for-Tat Move," The Moscow Times, 20 December 2021)

REGIONAL

Lithuania: German Defense Minister visits troops; condemns Russian actions

On 19 December, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht visited German troops stationed in Lithuania and stated that NATO is set to consider Russia’s proposals regarding the alliance’s “military affairs on its eastern borders”. However, she maintained that Russia would not be allowed to “dictate” the alliance's actions. On 17 December, Russia had given a list of military demands it required NATO and the US to fulfil. Lambrecht stated: “We have to talk to each other, which means discussing the proposals that Russia has put forward. But it cannot be that Russia dictates to NATO partners how they position themselves… We need to solve the current tensions on the diplomatic level but just as well by putting up a credible deterrence.” Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas, also present alongside Lambrecht, commented: “We need to support Ukraine with all means, which includes the delivery of lethal weapons.” (“German defense minister: Russia will not 'dictate' to NATO,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2021)

BREXIT

Foreign secretary Truss takes over as new Brexit minister

On 19 December, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was appointed as the new Brexit minister to handle the UK's relationship with the EU and Northern Ireland. As previous Brexit Minister David Frost handed over his resignation papers to the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, he expressed his "concerns about the current direction of travel" due to COVID-19. He stated the need for a more low-tax, lightly regulated, entrepreneurial economy that would benefit of the people. According to The Guardian, France called on the Johnson government to use this new opportunity to "rebuild trust" with the EU and clear the new year's uncertainties in their relations. The new minister's handling of the situation is closely being monitored, as she would have to decide on either resetting the strained relations with the EU or continuing with the former minister's approach to Northern Ireland. (“UK foreign secretary Truss to take over Brexit talks with EU after Frost exit,” France24, 19 December 2021; Daniel Boffey and Lisa O’ Carroll, “France urges Johnson to use Frost’s exit to rebuild trust with EU,” The Guardian, 19 December 2021; Lisa O’ Carroll, “Liz Truss to take on Brexit brief after David Frost resignation," The Guardian, 19 December 2021)

COVID-19 

World Economic Forum postpones its annual meeting for 2022

On 20 December, the World Economic Forum (WEF) announced that it would not be hosting its in-person annual meeting in Davos due to the spread of the new Omicron variant. Instead, the event will take place as an online series of sessions titled “State of the World” which will bring all the global leaders to bring solutions to most persisting challenges. As per the statement released by WEF: “Current pandemic conditions make it extremely difficult to deliver a global in-person meeting.” The cancelled in-person meeting will take place in early summer of 2022. The previous meeting held by WEF at Davos was in January 2020 for its 50-year anniversary, which was attended by the US President Donald Trump along with campaigners including Greta Thunberg. (Richard Partington, “Davos economic forum delayed until summer amid Omicron fears,” The Guardian, 20 December 2021; “COVID: Davos meeting called off due to omicron variant,” Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2021)

European Medicines Agency recommends approval of Novavax vaccine

On 20 December, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommended the approval of the Novavax vaccine. The vaccine is considered to use more conventional technology making it beneficial for the developing nations. According to the company, the vaccine showed 90.4 percent efficiency in the last trial and is scheduled to be delivered from January 2022 to the EU. According to Novavax Chief Executive Stanley Erck: “... looks forward to providing an additional vaccine option in Europe, built on a proven, well-understood technology platform…may help address major obstacles to global vaccination, including global distribution challenges and vaccine hesitancy.” (“COVID: EU regulators recommend approval of Novavax vaccine,” Deutsche Welle, 20 December 2021; Helen Collis, “EU regulator green-lights Novavax COVID-19 vaccine,” POLITICO, 20 December 2021)


18 December 2021, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #76

The G7 Foreign and Development Ministers’ Summit

Russia’s draft treaty with the US to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine; Germany warns Russia about halting the Nord Stream 2; The Netherlands to tackle climate change with two new nuclear plants

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

The G7 Foreign and Development Ministers’ Summit  

On 11 and 12 December, the G7 Foreign and Development ministers met at Liverpool. The meeting was coordinated along with the foreign ministers from Australia, and the Republic of Korea. In a first ever occurrence, the Association of South East Nations (ASEAN) also attended the meeting. After the summit, a statement was released by the G7 Chair and the UK’s Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs Elizabeth Truss. Germany is expected to assume the G7 presidency for 2022.  

The following matters were considered through the course of the ministers’ meeting. 

Omicron and COVID-19

A major subject of concern during the meeting was the latest COVID-19 variant of Omicron. Restating the 29 November statement released by the G7 Health Ministers, the ministers reiterated their pledge to provide vaccination to low-and middle-income countries in need. Since the June Leaders’ Summit, the G7 has supplied 657 million vaccine doses. Meanwhile, Africa was commended on its ‘exemplary work’ in identifying the new variant and warning the world of its existence. The ministers further validated their support for the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Vaccination Strategy along with the Access to COVID Tools (ACT)-Accelerator. The Global Health Summit Rome Declaration was also upheld by the ministers.  

Other efforts at increasing vaccination rates included maintaining open supply chains, growing regional vaccine production and regulatory capacities, strengthening health systems, while being able to deliver fair, timely and transparent roll-out of quality vaccines and other health products. In line with these efforts, the UK is set to host a Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations replenishment in March 2022 while the US will host the Seventh Replenishment Conference of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in 2022. 

Eastern Europe

The statement also reinstated the group’s position on Russian escalation of tensions along the Ukrainian border. Truss stated: “We’ve been clear that any incursion by Russia into Ukraine would have massive consequences for which there would be a severe cost.” 

The Belarusian regime was condemned for ‘orchestrating a migration crisis’ and its ‘repression of citizens’ rights’. The Western Balkans were asked to maintain their stability and security through a European perspective. Divisive attempts in Bosnia and Herzegovina were condemned with calls for unity and talks on ‘constructive agendas’. Normalization of relations was requested between Kosovo and Serbia through a dialogue mediated by the EU. 

On 13 December, Truss met with the Western Balkans Six (WB6) foreign ministers. The meeting also saw EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajcak and US Deputy Assistant Secretary Gabriel Escobar participating in the same.  

Other issues discussed

Various other global issues were also discussed. The climate goals were reinstated with the ministers embracing the Glasgow Climate Pact ratified during the COP26. Reaffirmation of commitments to maintain the 1.5 degrees goal until COP27 was also stated. Issues pertaining to gender equality, infrastructure investment and development finance were other topics discussed. Commitments to ‘defend open societies’ and uphold democracy internationally was also considered as a follow up to the US Summit for Democracy. 

China was another point of discussion. The human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong along with the tensions witnessed in the East and South China Seas were debated on and the necessity of maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait was reiterated. The Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK) was condemned for its ‘provocative actions’ and asked to 'abandon’ all its unlawful weapons of mass destruction (WMD) according to the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. 

While the continuation of talks in Vienna bringing back the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) was commended, Iran was reprimanded for its nuclear ambitions. Afghanistan’s ‘worsening humanitarian crisis’ was another matter of major concern given the liquidity challenges faced by the country primarily via the UN and NGOs. The G7 stated the points they would consider when engaging with the Taliban such as 'respecting human rights, in particular those of women, girls and minorities, countering terrorism and enabling safe passage for those who wish to leave Afghanistan’. The statement further saw a harsh stance on Taliban where “(they) will continue to judge the Taliban by their actions, not by their words”.  

Support was extended for democratic elections in Libya, peaceful negotiations in Ethiopia, humanitarian aid to Sudan, while the 25 October Sudanese military takeover and the ‘destabilizing activities’ of Wagner group were strongly denounced. Nonetheless, efforts of the G5 Sahel countries were lauded. The Indo-Pacific was extensively discussed given the need for it to be kept open and inclusive adhering to the rule of law. Promising further cooperation in the region, support was extended in the maritime domain. Expressing concern over the situation in Myanmar, the ministers endorsed ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus to stabilize the region.  

References: 

Elizabeth Truss, “G7 Foreign and Development Ministers' Meeting, December 2021: Chair's statement,” GOV.UK, 12 December 2021. 

Meeting of Western Balkans Foreign Ministers, Lancaster House, 13 December 2021: Chair's conclusions,” GOV.UK, 14 December 2021. 

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Padmashree Anandhan 

RUSSIA

Russia's eight-point draft treaty to de-escalate tensions

On 17 December, Russia put forward a list of demands to de-escalate tensions in Europe. The list was an eight-point draft treaty issued by Russia's Foreign Ministry that was handed over to the US and NATO. A senior US official mentioned that certain parts of the treaty were "unacceptable" as one of the treaties said, according to BBC: "… countries that joined Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union not to deploy troops or weapons in areas where they could be seen as a threat to Russia." In light of the draft treaty, the White House press secretary Jen Psaki said: "There will be no talks on European security without our European allies and partners." The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia was keen to meet "without delays and without stalling" as Moscow focused on its talks with the US. At the same time, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned about Russia increasing troops on its side of the border as it had already stationed about 100,000 troops. ("Russia Ukraine: Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions," BBC, 17 December 2021; Andrew Roth, "Russia issues list of demands it says must be met to lower tensions in Europe," The Guardian, 17 December 2021)

REGIONAL

Fear rises amongst the Baltic states as Russian troops align on the Ukraine border

On 19 December, Sonya Ciesnik via an analysis in France24 examined the situation of the Baltic states facing the threat of Russia on the Ukrainian border. Lithuania along with Estonia and Latvia published a wish list of security guarantees over the concern of the recent line-up of 100,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine. According to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis: “I believe Russia is really gearing up for war and is doing it seriously, I still have the feeling that we are not taking this seriously enough, including what's going on in Lithuania as well.” The fear amongst the Baltic states is due to two reasons. One, experience as a former Soviet Union member and two, being unnervingly close with NATO. The anticipated area under threat is said to be the Suwalki gap; this patch of land which is around 90 kilometers lies at the center of the Baltic states. According to an associate analyst: “If Russia gained control of the corridor, they would cut off the connection between the Baltic states and the other NATO allies. It would be a nightmare situation.” He also added that to secure the region, the first objective of NATO must be to increase the number of the US armed forces along the shared eastern borders. The second objective must be to lay a path for both Ukraine and Georgia to initiate the membership process into NATO. (Sonya Ciesnik, “Amid Russia tensions, Lithuania advocates for more robust Western response,” France24, 19 December 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE

The Netherlands: Plans to build two new nuclear plants to tackle climate change

On 15 December, the coalition government in the Netherlands decided to build two nuclear power stations to achieve climate goals. As reported by Reuters, the government has kept aside investments "needed to secure a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 and helped by ultra-low interest rates, the government's fiscal pledges presented this week contain generous spending plans ranging from sustainable energy to housing, education and childcare". According to the agreement, the government plans to invest more in its green transition and has earmarked EUR 35 billion. The Ministry of Climate and Economy will be separated to form a new ministry for climate and energy to handle the fund and the transition. (Karl Mathiesen, "The Netherlands to build new nuclear plants under coalition deal," POLITICO, 15 December 2021; Bart H. Meijer, "Frugal no more: New Dutch government promises to ramp up spending," Reuters, 16 December 2021)

COVID-19

French leaders cancel their visits due to new COVID-19 measures.

On 17 December, French President Emmanuel Macron cancelled his Mali trip due to the new restrictions announced by France in the wake of the rising COVID-19 cases. Macron was to meet transitional leader Colonel Assimi Goita and French soldiers stationed in Mali for Christmas. The President's office said: "This decision was taken in order for there to be coherence between national measures and the president's international agenda, and in order not to expose troops." The meeting had been organized to de-escalate the tensions between France and Mali as speculations arose on Russian mercenaries being deployed in the country as France was reducing its troops. Additionally, French Prime Minister Jean Castex cancelled his trip to meet French troops stationed in Jordan. ("Macron cancels visit to Mali after new Covid-19 measures announced," France24, 17 December 2021; "France's Macron cancels Mali trip over new COVID wave," Reuters, 17 December 2021)

ENERGY

German Minister warns Russia of halting Nord Stream 2

On 18 December, German Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck warned that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be halted and Russia would face severe consequences if it attempted any attack on Ukraine. He said: “Any new military action cannot remain without severe consequences.” He also added: “From a geopolitical point of view, the pipeline is a mistake… All the countries were against it except Germany and Austria.”  The Nord Stream 2 pipeline which extends through the Baltic Sea will enable the supply of natural gas in double capacity and also at cheap cost. Germany is in great need of it as it is transitioning from coal and nuclear energy, but the project is under pressure due to delays and criticisms from the US. Meanwhile, Ukraine has depicted it as a geopolitical weapon. (“Nord Stream 2: German minister warns Russia over Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 18 December 2021)

MIGRATION

French boats rescue 138 refugees off the English Channel

On 17 December, French authorities reported that 138 refugees were rescued using two navy vessels and two lifeboats. The makeshift vessels had got stranded in the English Channel. Despite the past mass drownings in the English Channel, the migrant crossings have not stopped. This increase in the movement of migrants across the Channel has amplified tensions between the UK and French governments. The UK, in order to reduce the crossings, funded GBP 54 million to France for the latter to deploy police patrols along the French beaches. The UK has blamed the French administration for not meeting the obligation and has urged for more police on the beaches. (Nadeem Badshah, “More than 130 people rescued after becoming stranded in the Channel,” The Guardian, 17 December 2021)

 

 


17 December 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #75

Regulations for Artificial Intelligence and the Council of Europe (CAHAI)

Polish Parliament ratifies Media Reform bill; Serbia moves closer to EU membership; Germany signs arms deal with Egypt

Photo : Council of Europe


IN FOCUS

By Harini Madhusudan 

Regulations for Artificial Intelligence and the Council of Europe (CAHAI)

On 14 December 2021, an ad hoc committee of the Council of Europe released a publication titled ‘towards regulation of AI systems’ after examining the potential elements and feasibility of Artificial Intelligence on human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. It is considered the first legal framework that is prepared on the basis of a broad multi-stakeholder consultations, and prepare a document for the development, application, and design of artificial intelligence for the Council of Europe’s Standards. 

In the early weeks of December, the CAHAI, completed its recommendations for a legally binding treaty. The treaty will now have to be ratified by the Council of Europe’s 47 member countries, and include Russia and Turkey. Additionally, the US, Canada, Japan and Mexico have also been involved in the AI initiative. The CAHAI recommends that the treaty could include risk clarifications, impact assessments, and principles for AI development. In the case of AI in healthcare, education, and granting social benefits, the committee believes that it would be better addressed through sectoral rules. 

The CAHAI has called for a complete or partial moratorium on applications that stand as an “unacceptable” risk to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. Features such as facial/emotion recognition, and social scoring would be a threat in this case. Barring a few exceptions, the treaty effectively targets the growing concentration of economic power and of big data. The CAHAI recommendations would be discussed among the ministers of member countries in February 2022, and the negotiations are expected to begin by May. A new committee named Committee of Artificial Intelligence (CAI) would be formed to negotiate the text. It is estimated that the negotiations would wrap before November 2023, and would be ratified by 2024, if all goes according to the schedule. 

Online platforms have not positively welcomed the proposal. The regulations are part of the larger set of directives to regulate online platforms and their activities. The regulations on AI would lay emphasis on the platforms to oversee the impact of their automated services and would ensure a human review of significant outcomes, thereby setting a code of conduct and placing the burden of proof on the online platforms. 

For several years, the Council of Europe has been anticipating increasing challenges from, and assessing the impact of digital technologies. They have worked towards developing relevant legal strategies and internet governance instruments. The initial responses by the civil society groups, said that the treaty has been massacred by member countries with exceptions that are similar to the European Union’s AI act. The biggest concern raised is that the treaty excludes military AI, which would necessarily allow the member countries to include dual-use technologies if they needed to. 

References:

Melissa Heikkila, “AI Decoded: the World’s First AI treaty,” POLITICO, 08 December 2021.

Luca Bertuzzi, “Digital Brief powered by Facebook: gig economy, roaming extension, battle of amendments,” Euractiv, 10 December 2021.

Geneva Internet Platform, “Council of Europe’s CAHAI releases publication titled “towards regulation of AI systems,” DigWatch, 14 December 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Mathews, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Padmashree Anandhan 

GERMANY

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's first meet with the EU

On 16 December, Germany's new Chancellor Olaf Scholz met the European Union members in Brussels. Russian tensions dominated the Chancellor's first summit in Brussels. Scholz discussed the rising energy prices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, while the EU debated potential sanctions on Russia if it were to increase its aggression along the Ukrainian borders. The EU was wary of Russia's intentions comprehending how it had annexed Crimea in 2014. Germany already had issues going on domestically with Russia, as in 2019 an ethnic Chechen was murdered in a park in Berlin. The court recently ruled a life imprisonment sentence for the Russian national and in response to the verdict, Germany expelled two Russian diplomats. Speculations arose about the Russian national being an FSB agent. ("Olaf Scholz at first EU summit with fresh Russia tension in tow," Deutsche Welle, 16 December 2021)

GREECE

Protests demanding a raise of wages and pensions  

On 16 December, labour unions staged a protest in Athens demanding a return of wages and pensions. Their wages were cut due to the International bailouts as Greece was on the brink of bankruptcy between 2010 and 2018. The protestors gathered in front of the Parliament building as the Parliament was discussing the budget for 2022. Due to the pandemic Greek Finance Minister Christos Staikouras said: “despite 6.9 percent growth forecast for this year, spending on the health service and income support during the pandemic allow for only modest increases in social spending.” Thus the budget included a minimum 2 percent wage increase. According to Euronews, Greece still has a public debt of “197.1 percent of gross domestic product this year, with a 7.3 precent budget deficit before debt obligations”, and due to the pandemic there has not been a significant increase in state revenues. (“Greece: Protest against budget constrained by pandemic costs,” Euronews, 16 December 2021)

POLAND

Parliament votes in Media Reform bill targeting TVN 

On 17 December, the Polish parliament ratified a media reform bill aimed at the Discovery-owned TVN. The bill is intended to reduce the media companies being foreignly owned. However, critics claim that the bill is directed at TVN which openly criticizes the Polish government. This bill has been a source of tension in the Poland-US relations. Polish President Andrzej Duda is expected to sign the bill for it to come into effect. Duda’s ratification would mean the bill becomes a law implying foreign firms would no longer have a say in Polish television and radio. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has upheld the bill stating the ban would allow for less foreign influence over public opinion. (“Poland: Parliament approves controversial media reform bill,” Deutsche Welle, 17 December 2021)

SERBIA

Serbia moves closer to EU membership

On 14 December, Serbia opened a series of talks with the European Union on environmental policies. The steps taken by Serbia helped it to move closer to joining the European Union; as the EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi said: "Serbia is taking another very important step forward in joining the European Union." Belgrade discussed energy, transport, trans-European infrastructure networks, and climate change. But, the only impediment Serbia would face soon was concerning its relations with Kosovo. Slovenian Foreign Minister Gasper Dovzan said: "Serbia's progress on the rule of law and the normalization of relations with Kosovo remains essential and will continue to determine the overall pace of the negotiations." All countries who want to join the EU have to conform to its standards. Serbia had refused to recognize Kosovo's declaration of independence in 2008. After a conflict between ethnic Albanian separatists and Serbian forces, Kosovo declared independence from Serbia. ("Serbia a step closer to EU membership but Kosovo relations remain key," Euronews, 14 December 2021.

REGIONAL

Hike in energy prices cause rift between the EU and Poland

On 16 December, the EU leaders met in Brussels to discuss various issues including the spiral in energy prices. When the talks began on energy, it was paused as Poland, Czech Republic, Spain and a few other countries called out to curb the role of financial speculators responsible for volatile prices in the energy market. The Prime Minister of Poland said: “ETS prices should be fairly constant and reasonably predictable, not in spikes.” He also added that the Polish government had proposed to the European Commission on changes to be made with regard to the carbon market. The carbon prices of the EU have shot up by more than 50 per cent. Carbon market has been one of the core policies of the EU to cut down the greenhouse gas emissions and the commission has proposed to expand the scheme on enforcement on factories to buy a permit for every ton of CO2 emitted. (Kate Abnett, “EU energy talks paused as Poland seeks carbon market curbs,” Reuters, 17 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 

Germany signs controversial arms deal with Egypt

On 16 December, as reported by Deutsche Welle, "Former Chancellor Angela Merkel's government approved controversial weapons exports to Egypt before leaving office". The move was criticized by a few political leaders as Egypt had a poor human rights record. The current Chancellor Olaf Scholz was the former Finance Minister under the Merkel government; thus, he knew about the deals. The government would be delivering three MEKO A-200 EN frigates and 16 air defence systems made in Kiel and Baden-Württemberg. The agreement also discloses Germany was increasing its exports to non-EU countries, which has brought it to international attention. Germany's new coalition government has decided to accept a "restrictive weapons export policy," to tackle the backlash received under the former government's deals. (Wesley Dockery and Sabine Kinkartz, “Germany: Merkel government greenlit controversial arms deal with Egypt,” Deutsche Welle, 16 December 2021)


16 December 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #74

Modi-Putin, reinvigorating bilateral ties and defence relations.

Lithuanian diplomats leave Beijing; EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative discusses Russia-Ukraine tensions; Olaf Scholz delivers first formal government briefing

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

Modi-Putin, reinvigorating bilateral ties and defence relations.

Reviving the strained bilateral ties

On 06 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India for the 21st annual summit, where he met his Indian counterpart Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visit was preceded by a 2+2 dialogue involving the Foreign and Defence ministers of both countries discussing bilateral, regional and international issues while emphasizing defence relations. The discussion between the Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh with their Russian counterparts, Sergey Lavrov and Sergey Shoigu, occurred a few hours before the two countries' leaders met. 

 

During the discussion, Prime Minister Modi said: "Despite the challenges posed by Covid, the pace of relations between India and Russia has not changed." The summit was to be held in 2020 but was postponed to 2021 due to COVID-19. Putin called India a "great power" and "a time-tested friend". The leaders shared their views to revive the wrinkled bilateral ties as they further discussed defence contacts. After the summit, India and Russia signed 28 agreements and released a 99-point joint statement. 

 

Readjusting the balance in India-Russia ties through defence deals

The two countries were undergoing a period of oscillation, with uncertainties growing as India joined the Quad and Russia expanded its proximity to China as a close strategic partner. Trade between the two countries was an important aspect of discussion as the bilateral trade was stagnant at USD 10 billion, similar to the trade between India and Bangladesh. India's trade with China and the US is at USD 100 billion, while Russia's trade with China is a little over USD 100 billion. Thus, both countries pledged to boost annual trade to USD 30 billion by 2025. 

 

India-US ties had deteriorated during the Trump administration as the President offered to only mediate between China and India after the Galwan valley skirmish. Moreover, the US did not hold the PLA accountable for its actions, creating apprehension about the US' support to India during such situations. India bought the S-400 missile systems from Russia even though the US threatened to impose sanctions under the CAATSA. 

 

Russia and India signed a deal of 600,000 Ak-203 assault rifles made by Kalashnikov, a Russian weapon maker. In addition, India started receiving the S-400 defence systems that are vital for India's strategic deterrence to counter Pakistan and China in the region. It is one of the most sophisticated surface to air defence systems globally, with a range of 400 kilometer, and can shoot down 80 targets simultaneously. India is Russia's largest arms importer even though its arms import had dropped from 70 percent to 49 percent during 2011-2020. Thus, defence ties between Moscow and Delhi have become a priority for the two countries. 

 

India and Russia reworking their way ahead 

Russia has invariably grown close to China and will inevitably grow closer, while India may continue to retain a strategic autonomy, balancing both the US and Russia. Nevertheless, India would grow closer to Russia in the defence sector in the coming years due to their recent defence deals. According to a Stimson Center paper released in 2020, about 86 percent of Indian military equipment systems were of Russian or Soviet origin. Moreover, the joint statements released after the discussions hint at expanding cooperation between the two countries. One of the combined statements released after the talks said the countries "reiterated their intention to strengthen defence cooperation, including in the joint development of production of military equipment". India and Russia have invested in the joint development of BrahMos Mark II, which is a hypersonic version of the BrahMos. India recently invested USD one billion in credit in the far-east region of Russia, while Russia has invested in manufacturing the Sputnik-V vaccine in India. The countries also discussed a Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor to open business frontiers. 

 

References:

"India, Russia sign trade, arms deals during Putin visit to New Dehli," France24, 07 December 2021. 

"Putin heads to India with eye on military, energy ties," France24, 05 December 2021.

Vikas Pandey, "Vladimir Putin: What Russian president's India visit means for world politics," BBC, 06 December 2021.

"Moscow, Delhi sign deal to produce Kalashnikov assault rifles in India," Reuters, 06 December 2021.

"India, Russia sign 28 investment deals -foreign secy," Reuters, 06 December 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Mathews, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Padmashree Anandhan 

FRANCE

Paris: Taxi firm G7 bans usage of Tesla cars

On 15 December, G7, the largest taxi company in Paris, banned the use of Model 3 cars of Tesla after a deadly incident. A driver who lost control caused an accident leading to the death of one while 20 others were found injured. The Prosecutors of Paris have filed an investigation under charges of manslaughter and unintentional injury. According to France’s Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari stated that there was an absence of any proof that verified the accident’s association to a ‘technical problem’. In response, Tesla’s Europe chief executive said that the company had not faced any safety alerts so far in the particular model. The system of Tesla cars has been criticized by its users for its Autopilot” feature, which gives the car unattended control. Similar to France, the US is also investigating the Autopilot system, after facing a series of Tesla crashes. (“Tesla Model 3: Paris' largest taxi firm suspends cars after a fatal crash,” BBC, 15 December 2021)

 

GERMANY

Olaf Scholz delivers his first formal government briefing

On 15 December, Germany's new Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered his inaugural address to the Bundestag. Deutsche Welle reported that he spoke on nine topics ranging from "calls to get vaccinated" to "China, defense and relationship with the US". Scholz outlined his government’s new policy agendas after his three-party coalition government was formally sworn in last week. His comments on migration and citizenship were about Germany accepting itself as a country of immigration and assured to make it easier to become citizens of the country. He said: "We are going to make multiple citizenship possible, in keeping with the reality of many people in this country." Scholz also expressed his "solidarity with Poland, given the situation at its border with Belarus" while speaking about European unity. At the same time, he emphasized the rule of law to deal with political extremism and financial issues. Furthermore, he presented the government's policies on mobility, affordable housing, energy transition and climate neutrality. Scholz even thanked his predecessor Angela Merkel for a smooth transition as Deutsche Welle reported: "The civility of the transfer from the former to the current government was admired worldwide, and earned the respect of many across the globe." (Alistair Walsh, "Germany's new Chancellor Olaf Scholz briefs Bundestag for the first time," Deutsche Welle, 16 December 2021)

Raids on anti-vaccination activists of Saxony

On 15 December, German Police carried out raids in the eastern state of Saxony after they uncovered a plot to murder the Premier by far-right anti-vaccination activists. The charge was carried out by the local security forces and the special Soko Rex anti-extremist unit to cover multiple locations. The plot against the Premier of Saxony Michael Kretschmer was discussed on the Telegram messaging app with about 100 people communicating about the same. Germany has been facing protests due to the tighter restrictions being placed in the wake of the new Omicron variant. Anti-Vaccination activists were against Kretschmer and other state officials as they recently changed their stance on COVID-19 restrictions. The change in perspective came after a switch in government policies due to the steep rise of coronavirus cases and the low vaccination rates in Saxony. In the wake of the raids, Kretschmer mentioned that the government would use all legal means to tackle the threats. He also said: "People in public office should not have to be scared of expressing their opinion or doing their jobs." (Kate Connolly, “German police raids target ‘anti-vaxxer murder plot’ against state leader,” The Guardian, 16 December 2021; “German raids on Covid extremists over Saxony leader death plot,” BBC, 15 December 2021)

LITHUANIA

Vilnius recalls diplomats from Beijing due to “safety concerns”

On 15 December, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry published a statement on their website after diplomats placed in Beijing returned to Vilnius. The statement read: “Charge d’affaires ad interim in China, Audra Ciapiene, returns to Vilnius for consultations.” According to Reuters, 19 Lithuanian Embassy personnel were returning to Vilnius via a plane to Paris due to “safety concerns”. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis commented on the situation: “Uncertainty creates various possible interpretations… I want to say very strictly that this is not the closure of the embassy.” The statement released by the ministry also read: “Lithuania is ready to continue the dialogue with China and restore the functions of the embassy to their full extent once a mutually beneficial agreement has been reached.” Currently, the embassy is expected to function remotely while consular services resume in a constrained manner. The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry responded to the move stating their “highest respect to the Lithuanian government and its diplomatic decision-making”. (Yew Lun Tian and Andrius Sytas, “Lithuanian diplomats leave China as relations sour over Taiwan,” Thomson Reuters Foundation News, 15 December 2021; “Lithuania′s diplomats leave Beijing,” Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2021)  

REGIONAL

EU meets with eastern counterparts, discusses Ukraine-Russia tension

On 15 December, EU leaders met with leaders from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan as part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative. The primary topic of discussion was the escalating tensions at the Russian-Ukrainian border. On the sidelines of this meet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gathered with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron in an effort to call for the Normandy format of talks to de-escalate tensions at the border. European Council President Charles Michel also joined the discussion. A statement released by Macron’s office read: “The three leaders reaffirmed their commitment to… negotiations in order to find a lasting solution for the conflict and to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Commenting on the sanctions promised by the West, Zelenskyy said: “For us, it is important to have sanctions applied before, rather than after, the conflict would happen, because if they were applied after the conflict would happen, this would basically make them meaningless.” (“EU talks with former-Soviet republics with eye on Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2021)  

COVID-19

Denmark approves usage of Covid pill ahead of EU-wide approval

On 16 December, Denmark approved the molnupiravir antiviral pill for high-risk COVID-19 patients and the elderly. According to the Health Authority Chief Medical Officer Kirstine Moll Harboe: “We believe that the benefits of being treated (with it) outweigh the disadvantages for those patients who are most at risk of becoming seriously ill with COVID-19.” The European Medicines Agency, which is still reviewing the treatment, has recommended the usage of the drug for adults ahead of an EU-wide approval. So far Britain has been the only country that has allowed the use of the COVID-19 pill. (“Denmark approves Merck's COVID-19 pill for at-risk patients,” Reuters, 16 December 2021)


15 December 2021, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #73

Protests against lithium mining projects in Serbia

Siarhei Tsikhanouski sentenced to 18 years in jail; More victims identified from the English Channel drowning disaster; Venice Commission states Hungarian anti-LGBTQ law creating “threatening environment”

Photo : US News


IN FOCUS

By Harini Madhusudan

Protests against lithium mining projects in Serbia

On 11 December, environmental groups and protesters in Serbia blocked the roads and highways for a third consecutive weekend in opposition to the plan of lithium mining. The crowds halted the movement across Belgrade, other cities and towns in the cold and raining weather. The protests began when the government adopted two new laws that would lower Serbia’s referendum threshold and allow the state to acquire more private property through expropriation. As a response, Serbia is witnessing some of the largest anti-government protests, standing as a challenge to Aleksandr Vučić's government ahead of the Presidential elections in April 2022. A mining project was announced following the change in the laws. An Anglo-Australian company called Rio Tinto planned to start a new lithium mine in Western Serbia called the Jadar lithium project. 

 

During the week before 11 December, Vučić agreed to withdraw and amend the controversial laws. In an address to the nation, he said: “We have to see if we want that mine or not, and there should be a public debate about it… I want to calm people down and tell them that we are on your side and we will not make any decisions without you.” Civilian groups and environmental groups are seen working together during the protests. For example, an activist Savo Manojlović tweeted in support of Eko Straža and tweeted: "Protests for all. Leftists bothered by right-wingers can put up a blockade at a different location. ... Divide yourselves later.”

 

Though the country is not new to protests, the latest wave of demonstrations has united a wide spectrum of citizen groups and strong opposition, which threatens the regime. The protesters want the government to remove all possibility of companies attempting to initiate mining projects in the region and argued that the extraction process of lithium causes huge damage to the mined areas. Serbia’s populist government has tried to defuse the demonstrations by announcing their agreement to the key demands of the protesters. 

 

Lithium Resources 

There is a scramble by governments and companies to tap into the lithium market worldwide; which is also called the ‘White Gold Rush.’ Lithium is a crucial component in the technology market around the world. It is essential for energy storage in renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. In recent years, lithium projects have multiplied across Europe, Australia, the US and Latin America. All the communities that live closer to these proposed mining zones remain their primary opponents. Australia is the main producer of lithium and it is mined from a type of hard rock called ‘spodumene.’ South America has the largest deposits of the same, and lithium is extracted from brines underneath salt flats. And despite the fact that these mines are relatively new operations, complex and adverse environmental and social impacts have already been observed. 

Taking an example of Chile, where lithium has been mined since the 1980s, one can observe significant alterations in the traditional livelihoods. The mining has interfered with the local economy and labour practices, cultural practices, and the overall lives of the local indigenous communities. In the case of Serbia, the Jadar lithium project has been planned for 387 hectares, and despite its promise of a one percent contribution to the Serbian GDP, the environmental costs are very high. An environment impact study, which was commissioned by Rio Tinto, concluded that the project would cause irreversible damage and recommended it should not go ahead. Additionally, the communities surrounding the region of the proposed mine have expressed strong opposition. 

 

Collaterals for clean energy

A spokesperson from Rio Tinto in September 2021, announced that it has been working through the project requirements for upto 20 years with a team of 100 domestic experts studying the cumulative impacts in-accordance to the Serbian law. Very often, corporations also engage in a consultation period where they allow for concerns to be raised against their projects. In the case of Serbia, the government seems to have backtracked on their promises of holding a referendum and made legislative changes. With the region in a rush for decarbonization with fast timelines, these situations would simply add to the delay in approvals causing regulatory governance instability. The Serbian government seems to be in the middle of this, and will have to make a choice between the project (which is expected to begin in 2022) or the voices of their citizens (who are relatively important too, because of the upcoming elections).

 

References:

Associated Press, “Serbia Roads Blocked for 3rd Weekend of Lithium Mine protests,” VOA News, 12 December 2021.

Ana, Gillian, and Gregory, “We need lithium for clean energy but Rio Tinto's planned Serbian mine reminds us it shouldn’t come at any cost,” The Conversation, 22 September 2021.  

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Mathews and Padmashree Anandhan

BELARUS

Lukashenko dissident Siarhei Tsikhanouski sentenced to 18 years in prison

On 14 December, the video blogger turned Lukashenko challenger Siarhei Tsikhanouski was sentenced for 18 years in prison by a Belarusian court. He has been charged on counts of organizing mass unrest and inciting social hatred. Siarhei, who is the husband of self-exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was arrested in 2020 for his election campaign against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Following the verdict, Tsikhanouskaya tweeted on the trial conducted behind closed doors; she said: “The dictator publicly takes revenge on his strongest opponents. While hiding the political prisoners in closed trials, he hopes to continue repressions in silence. But the whole world watches. We won't stop.” Five others went to trial with Tsikhanouski and were given sentences between 14 and 16 years. The US and Germany have, however, ‘denounced’ the verdicts calling them “scandalous” and “part of the ongoing brutal and systemic repression”. (Andrew Roth, “Belarus jails opposition leader's husband for 18 years,” The Guardian, 14 December 2021; “Belarus jails Lukashenko opponent Siarhei Tsikhanouski,” Deutsche Welle, 14 December 2021; “Belarus opposition leader Tikhanovsky jailed for 18 years,” France24, 14 December 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Amendment to the Nationality and Border Bill stirs outrage in the UK

On 14 December, Rob Mudge in an opinion in Deutsche Welle analyzed the furore over the recent amendment introduced by the UK in the Nationality and Border Bill. Termed Clause 9, the amendment has evoked outrage especially amongst the ethnic minority Britons as it gives leverage to the government to take away British citizenship without notice. According to the statement released by the UK's Home Office: “British citizenship is a privilege, not a right. Deprivation of citizenship on conducive grounds is rightly reserved for those who pose a threat to the UK or whose conduct involves very high harm. The nationality and borders bill will amend the law so citizenship can be deprived where it is not practicable to give notice, for example if there is no way of communicating with the person.” Apart from the public, the bill contradicts human rights groups, the UN Refugee Convention and the European Convention on Human Rights. The bill is expected to be debated by the upper house in the parliament on 05 January to look into its effects on the refugees. (Rob Mudge, “UK's nationality bill could strip millions of Britons of their citizenship,” Deutsche Welle, 14 December 2021)

The UK government reveals proposal to reform the Human Rights Act

On 14 December, the UK government proposed a new legislation to attain a balance between the individual rights, personality responsibility and larger public interest. The rule aims to restore confidence in the legal system of the European convention, which means parliament's role as a decision maker is definitive. According to Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Justice Dominic Raab: “Our plans for a Bill of Rights will strengthen typically British rights like freedom of speech and trial by jury, while preventing abuses of the system and adding a healthy dose of common sense.” The critics have warned that the final measure to the Human Rights Act might be confused. (Dominic Raab, “Plan to reform Human Rights Act,” Ministry of Justice, 14 December 2021; Human Rights Act: UK government unveils reform proposals,” BBC, 14 December 2021)

GENDER

Hungary: Venice Commission states anti-LGBTQ law creates “threatening environment”

On 14 December, the Venice Commission which is an expert panel of the human rights body of the Council of Europe stated the Hungarian anti-LGBTQ law was in violation of international human rights standards. The law, passed in June 2021, has received widespread condemnation due to its ban on the use of materials encouraging homosexuality and gender change. The panel stated: “... the amendments contribute to creating a “threatening environment”, where LGBTQI children can be subject to health-related risks, bullying and harassment… The amendments leave space only for one-sided and biased teaching, opening doors to stigmatisation and discrimination of LGBTQI people.” (“Hungary's anti-LGBTQ law breaches international rights standards - European rights body,” Reuters, 14 December 2021)

MIGRATION

More victims identified from the English Channel drowning disaster

On 14 December, the French authorities identified close to 27 bodies which were recuperated from the English Channel drowning. Of the identified victims, 16 belonged to Iraq and four to Afghanistan. According to the BBC report, the families were not aware about the state of their relatives since the disaster. They said that the members had paid smugglers thousands of dollars to help reach the UK. Apart from the Iraqis and Afghans several others from Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt were also identified. (“Channel tragedy: French authorities identify 26 victims,” BBC, 14 December 2021)


 


14 December 2021, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #72

100 years of the Anglo-Irish Treaty

Wagner group targeted by EU sanctions; Mark Rutte to get a fourth term; The Vatican office apologizes to Catholic LGBTQ community

Photo : GETTY IMAGES/ BBC


IN FOCUS 

By Padmashree Anandhan 

100 years of the Anglo-Irish Treaty

06 December 2021, marked 100 years of the Anglo-Irish Treaty, signed at 10 Downing Street. The treaty was signed after six riotous years of the 1916 Easter Rising by the British government and representatives of Sinn Fein. It led to creating an Independent Irish State with King George V as the head of state. The agreement allowed partition of the Island of Ireland and gave Northern Ireland a choice whether to remain in existence or not. This treaty stirred the breakout of civil war between the supporters and opposers. According to Cambridge University historian Dr Niamh Gallagher, “The treaty did not overturn the partition of Ireland but instead made provision for a boundary commission to review the border. In the end, the border was unchanged.” 

What is the article of the Treaty?

The first clause of the treaty provides about the constitutional status Ireland would get as an Irish Free State similar to other countries in the British empire. For example, countries like Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa were seen as dominions but were comparatively far from independence, in contrast to today.

According to the treaty, “the Free State's parliament would have powers to make laws for the peace, order and good government of Ireland and an executive responsible to that parliament.” However, northern Ireland, which came into existence in May 1921, opted out of this new state.

Under Articles 11 to 15 which cover Northern Island. The said provision was to be kept on hold for Northern Island until it joins the rest of the Free State or separates from the United Kingdom. If Northern Ireland opt not to be part of the UK means stepping in of the Boundary Commission to fix boundary, accounting, economic and geographical factors.

Lastly, articles from 16 to 18 allow for the ratification of the treaty by the UK and Irish parliaments and the administration of “Southern Ireland” until the Treaty took effect.

Impact of the Good Friday Agreement 1997

The treaty's impact continues to the present day. In the process of creating an independent island, but led to partition in the island. Competition between the two parties affected the Irish party system. Even after 100 years of the foundation of the state, the divide between the pro-treaty forces and anti-treaty forces exists. But the role of the US in bringing out the Good Friday Agreement in 1997 was seen as the biggest achievement as it brought the communal conflicts in Northern Island to an end and made the British remove its arms from the border. Thereby, it installed peace in the borders, made it safe for people to cross the border and carry out their daily activities. 

Post-Brexit

The post-Brexit period resulted in destabilizing the island of Ireland. One, the consequences and relevant cost from Britain’s exit was unveiled by the EU. Two, border checks became a mandate. The checks were to be carried out either between the land area of two Irish states or between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Three, continued negotiations between the UK and the EU to strike a deal after 100 years of treaty showcases its legacy. But in terms of establishing the relations between the neighbouring islands seem uncertain.

The probable way for a united Ireland could be another Good Friday Agreement, where both the UK and the EU find a way to handle the consequences arising at the border in Ireland. With both parties open for talks, arriving at a common solution does seem plausible. 

References:

Mark Simpson, “NI 100: Signing of Anglo-Irish Treaty marked 100 years on,” BBC, 06 December 2021

Luke Sproule, “NI 100: What was the Anglo-Irish Treaty?,” BBC, 06 December 2021

David Torrance, “A century since the Anglo-Irish Treaty,” House of Commons Library, 06 December 2021

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan 

BULGARIA

Kiril Petkov assumes position as Bulgarian Prime Minister

On 13 December, the Bulgarian parliament voted in Harvard graduate and head of the We Continue the Change (PP) party Kiril Petkov as the Prime Minister of the country. The ruling coalition headed by Petkov includes his own party along with the leftist Socialists, anti-establishment ITN party and the centre-right Democratic Bulgaria. Being the EU’s poorest country, the new government will work under the motto of “zero tolerance to corruption”. Commenting on the same, Petkov said: “I will insist that corruption from the lowest to the highest level be exposed." Petkov's newly formed government is burdened with reforming the economy and building up the health of the society. Speaking on the same, he said: "My first task will be to keep the electricity costs for consumers at bay and boost the level of vaccinations at least to the average level in the EU." (Tsvetelia Tsolova, "Harvard-educated Petkov elected as Bulgaria's prime minister," Reuters, 13 December 2021) 

ITALY

Suspected gas explosion in Silicy

On 13 December, a suspected gas explosion in the Silician town of Ravanusa induced the collapse of four buildings, killing seven people. Authorities stated that the houses had immediately collapsed, with three also being damaged by the blast. A resident in the adjacent building said: "It was as if a plane had crashed into our building." Firefighters and volunteers removed rubble with their bare hands to prevent further collapses. The blast was speculated to have been caused by a gas leak, and an investigation for manslaughter is underway. Residents said there was a strong gas smell for several days, but the gas operator Italgas responded, saying they did not receive any leak reports. ("Italy: Seven dead as rescuers find bodies in Sicily blast," BBC, 13 December 2021; "Seven dead in Sicily after gas explosion causes building collapse," Euronews, 13 December 2021)

THE NETHERLANDS 

Mark Rutte to get a fourth term

On 13 December, political parties agreed to form a coalition government that would give the incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte a fourth term in office. The four political parties of Rutte's centre-right VVD, the progressive D66, the centre-right CDA and the conservative ChristenUnie agreed on the deal before Parliament meeting on 15 December. Rutte remained in a caretaker capacity as the third cabinet resigned in mid-January over the scandal where thousands of parents were wrongly accused. The country has run without a government for nine months now, the lengthiest in the country's history. Rutte was dubbed the "Teflon prime minister" as he skillfully dodged the scandals. He will be the longest-serving head of a government in Europe after Hungary's Viktor Orban. ("Dutch parties seal coalition deal a record nine months after vote," France24, 13 December 2021; "Netherlands: Dutch parties to form government 9 months after vote," Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Johnson’s Christmas quiz photo scandal 

On 12 December, the Sunday Mirror newspaper published an old photo of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson was seen hosting a Christmas quiz alongside two of his colleagues; the quiz was held at a time when the UK was under lockdown, and indoor gatherings were restricted. Johnson claims he "briefly took part virtually" in the December 2020 quiz as a gesture to the staff, but the newspaper stated that he was actively involved for about 15 minutes in the quiz. This is the second scandal relating to Johnson, as earlier last week another photo surfaced with his staff holding an illegal Christmas party on 18 December 2020. The allegations came after public anger exploded on social media, with many people not being allowed to meet their close relatives while government officials ignored the rules. The fresh allegations will add pressure on the Prime Minister ahead of a parliamentary vote next week on plan B over the spread of the new Omicron variant. ("UK: Boris Johnson under new pressure over Christmas quiz," Deutsche Welle, 12 December 2021; Sam Hancock and Emily Atkinson, "Boris Johnson news – live: PM insists he 'broke no rules' during quiz as over 70 Tories to vote against plan B," Independent, 13 December 2021)

REGIONAL

Russia-Ukraine border standoff: Wagner group targeted by EU sanctions

On 13 December, the EU targeted Russian-based private military contractor Wagner Group after condemning its activities on behalf of the Kremlin. The EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell stated: “They represent a threat and create instability in a number of countries around the world.” Along with Wagner, eight individuals and three energy companies based in Syria were also targeted as part of the sanctions which include asset bans and travel freezes. In the bloc's official journal, a statement reads: "The Wagner Group is responsible for serious human rights abuses in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mozambique… (they) are involved in serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings, or in destabilizing activities in some of the countries they operate in.” ("EU sanctions target Russian 'Wagner' mercenary group," Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2021; "EU imposes sanctions on Russian mercenary group Wagner over human rights abuses," France24, 13 December 2021)

Putin warns Johnson over Ukraine tension

On 14 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephonic conversation with the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. According to a statement released by the Kremlin, Putin was said to have given a detailed picture of the situation at the borders, thus, demanding the UK to negotiate for talks with NATO to understand its ambitions for the future, particularly regarding Ukraine. He further called for talks that would assure that NATO would not advance eastwards. However, a statement from Downing Street saw Johnson warning Russia, as he “emphasised the UK’s commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and warned that any destabilising action would be a strategic mistake that would have significant consequences”. Commenting on the possibility of launching nuclear missiles, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: "Lack of progress towards a political and diplomatic solution to this problem will lead to our response being of a military and technical military nature." (Patrick Wintour and Julian Borger, "Putin tells Boris Johnson urgent talks needed over Nato’s plans for Ukraine," The Guardian, 14 December 2021; "Putin tells UK's Johnson: NATO members are threatening Russia from Ukraine," Reuters, 13 December 2021)

Macron visits Orban as part of East European leaders' summit

On 14 December, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Budapest and met with Hungarian President Viktor Orban. He was in the city for a summit for East European leaders. Setting the stage for France taking over the EU rotating presidency in January, Macron stated that despite the “well known political disagreements” with Orban, the two countries would "work together for Europe". In response, Orban stated: “Hungary’s relation towards President Macron is that of respect… France is the home of encyclopedists, they are the best when it comes to definitions, so we accept their definitions: what we heard lately from Mr President is that we are political opponents and at the same time European partners.” France and Hungary differ over their views on LGBT rights, the rule of law and democratic standards. ("Macron seeks common ground with Orban on EU security during Hungary visit," France24, 13 December 2021; Krisztina Than and Michel Rose, “France and Hungary set conciliatory tone as Macron visits Budapest,” Reuters, 13 December 2021) 

VATICAN CITY

Vatican department apologizes to the Catholic LGBTQ community

On 13 December, the Vatican department of the Synod of Bishops apologized for "causing pain to the entire LGBTQ community" as they removed a website link of a webinar from the New Ways Ministry. New Ways Ministry is a US-based group that ministers to LGBTQ Catholics. The Synod Communications Manager Thierry Bonaventura took personal responsibility for removing the link and apologized, saying: "I feel that I must apologize to all LGBTQ people and to members of the New Ways Ministry for the pain caused." The apology was accepted and the gesture drew praise from the New Ways Ministry. The group's Executive Director Francis DeBernardo said that: "Vatican officials rarely apologize, and they almost certainly have never apologized to LGBTQ people or an LGBTQ Catholic ministry." The removal of the link highlighted the mixed feelings the Vatican had on the LGBTQ community. (Nicole Winfield, "Vatican official apologizes for taking down LGBTQ resource," The Washington Post, 13 December 2021; Philip Pullella, "Vatican office apologizes for hurting Catholic LGBTQ community," Reuters, 13 December 2021)

 


13 December 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #71

Continued protests against vaccine mandates and lockdowns in Europe

Kiril Petkov to form Bulgarian government; Malta to be first European country to legalize personal use of cannabis; EU considering fresh sanctions against Russia

Photo : Financial Times


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan 

Europe sees continued protests against vaccine mandates and lockdowns 

The recent protests in Vienna and Luxembourg City 

On 11 December, around 44,000 protestors gathered on the streets of Vienna, Austria's capital, against the government restrictions for COVID-19. The protests were against mandatory vaccines and home confinement orders for unvaccinated citizens. Vaccination in Austria is now mandatory for all above the age of 14 from February 2022. The protestors said: "I'm not a neo-Nazi or a hooligan," while another demonstrator said, "I'm fighting for freedom and against the vaccine". Furthermore, the government will impose fines for the unvaccinated from EUR 300 to EUR 3,600 depending on the people's income and financial obligations.

The Austrian government announced a fourth national lockdown three weeks ago to curb the spread of the new COVID variant Omicron. The Minister for Constitutional Affairs Karoline Edtstadler said: "We do not want to punish people who are not vaccinated. We want to win them over and convince them to get vaccinated.” About 1,200 police officers were deployed to handle the protestors; they used pepper spray to control demonstrators who had fireworks, as a few attacked the officers with snowballs and ice.  

On 12 December, the protests in Luxembourg City escalated to the extent that the government had to use water cannons against demonstrators. In addition, protestors stormed the Christmas market as it was closed for anyone who was not vaccinated. The recent protests in Vienna, Klagenfurt and Linz shed light on the peoples' apprehension on government regulations and restrictions against COVID-19.

Demography of the protestors 

The demography of protestors in Luxembourg City, as mentioned by Luxembourg University’s Professor Dr Anja Leist said: "The people we saw on the streets are once again a non-representative small group of those who are hesitant to vaccinate and who, according to the German studies, come from different political orientations." The protestors were not from a specific political school of thought but constituted a tiny minority of the population, as 66.2 percent of the population in Luxembourg is vaccinated. 

While the anti-vaxxers in Europe, as reported by Deutsche Welle, were said to be a mix of "the politically disenchanted, those who are anti-state, others who are esoteric and or anti-vaxxers". Leuven University's Political Science Professor Marc Hooghe said there was a "combination of very different social groups which all have their own motivations". Hooghe on the German public broadcaster ZDF compared the protests in Belgium to France's yellow vest movement. 

Siegen University’s Sociologist Johannes Kiess talked about the role of far-right groups in the recent protests mentioning "What we have seen everywhere is that actors from the political right are at the helm, organizing and mobilizing." For example, in Vienna, members of the far-right group called the Identitarian Movement were promoting rallies on their website. The far-right and even a part of the ultra-conservative Catholic community supported the demonstrations. 

Driving factors of the recent protests

The protests were not restricted to COVID-19 and government regulations. They resounded more significant issues progressing in the background of the regions. The Austrians marched with signs saying, "I will decide for myself", "Make Austria Great Again", and "New Elections". As Austria had seen three Chancellors change in the last two months, this has been causing political turmoil in Austria. In France, it was about Macron's style of politics, and in the Netherlands, it was linked to the shortcomings of the government's social policies. While in Saxony, it was about trust issues with the politicians and disenchantment from democracy. 

Kiess mentioned that the situation could get even worse, leading to "…more action against illegal demonstrations early on, by fining people more consistently and also dispersing the crowds for example". While German Interior Ministers Conference Chairman Thomas Strobl said: "mandatory vaccination would intensify the aggressive attitude of the protest movement." Thus, more regulations and mandatory inoculations could lead to increasing protests with diversifying reasons for mobilization.

References:

Tens of thousands protest against compulsory Covid jabs in Austria," The Guardian, 11 December 2021.

Austrians refusing COVID vaccine will face up to $4,000 fines,” Al Jazeera. 09 December 2021. 

Stephanie Hoppner, “What is behind the COVID protests across Europe?,” Deutsche Welle, 09 December 2021. 

More than 40,000 march in Vienna against coronavirus lockdown," Reuters, 05 December 2021.

Tens of thousands protest Austria’s compulsory COVID vaccines," Al Jazeera, 11 December 2021.

Tens of thousands protest in Austria against tightening Covid-19 restrictions," France24, 12 December 2021. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews

BULGARIA

Kiril Petkov seals coalition agreement with Radev’s approval

On 11 December, Prime Minister-designate Kiril Petkov sealed a coalition government, consisting of four political parties. The draft government document was handed over to President Rumen Radev by the We Continue the Change (PP) party. Petkov commented: “Zero tolerance for corruption will be the motto of our coalition.” The country’s parliament is set to vote the government into power on 13 December. Radev advised the new coalition partners: “You and the coalition partners have a responsibility to reform the vicious power model inherited from 12 years of authoritarian rule, to tackle corruption and lawlessness, the inequalities and poverty they create.” Responding to the same, Petkov said: “It is time, after 32 years, that Bulgarians saw power-holders who care for them; it is time young Bulgarians abroad saw Bulgaria as a promising place to return to, and our parents saw Bulgaria as a place where they can have a worthy pension and live their old age with dignity.” (“Bulgaria: Anti-corruption party leader asked to form government,” Deutsche Welle, 11 December 2021)

MALTA

Possession and cultivation of cannabis to be legalized 

On 13 December, The Guardian reported that Malta would be the first European country legalizing the possession and cultivation of cannabis for personal use, beating Luxembourg. The law will come into effect over the weekend after a vote favouring the legislation is held on 14 December. According to the new law, seven grams of cannabis can be possessed by those 18 years and above; four plants of the drug can be grown while up to 50 grams of the dried product can be stocked up. The Maltese Minister for Research, Innovation and the Coordination of the Post-COVID-19 Strategy Owen Bonnici stated: “There is a wave of understanding now that the hard-fist approach against cannabis users was disproportionate, unjust and it was rendering a lot of suffering to people who are leading exemplary lives. But the fact that they make use on a personal basis of cannabis is putting them in the jaws of criminality… I’m very glad that Malta will be the first country which will put words in statute in a comprehensive manner with a regulatory authority.” (Daniel Boffey, “Malta to legalize cannabis for personal use in European first,” The Guardian, 13 December 2021)

TURKEY

Lira suffers steep fall

On 13 December, Turkey saw its currency falling by seven percent in reference to USD. The crash of 14.99 lira to the dollar follows the increased concerns over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ‘political influence’ over the central bank. The lira which saw a fall did later rebound but only by a slight margin. In the background of growing pressure from Erdogan, the central bank has functioned off four percent on its policy rates since September. The policy rate refers to the rate of interest central banks charge commercial banks when money is being lent to the latter. The Turkish economy has witnessed an inflation rate of 21.3 percent in November alone. According to Erdogan, economic growth can be achieved only via slashing interest rates and believes high interest rates spike inflation. (“Turkish lira tumbles to new record low,” Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2021)

REGIONAL    

EU considering fresh sanctions against Russia

On 13 December, as EU foreign ministers meet at Brussels, there is a possibility of a fresh set of economic sanctions to be considered against Russia. Options before the EU include ‘travel bans and the freezing of assets for members of Russia’s political elite’. Plans also consider sanctioning the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. After attending the G7 meeting, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed the same, warning: “In the event of further escalation this gas pipeline could not come into service.” These measures are being considered as deterrence while the ‘strongest of measures’ will be imposed if Russia invades Ukraine. The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: “We are in deterrent mode… In any case, we will send a clear signal that any aggression against Ukraine will have a high cost for Russia.” The new round of sanctions is most likely to be coordinated with the UK, and the US. On 12 December, the G7 foreign ministers who had arrived at Liverpool for talks commented on the same, saying: “Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.” (“EU foreign ministers mull Russia sanctions,” Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2021; Hans von der Burchard, “G7 warns Russia of ‘massive consequences’ if it attacks Ukraine,” POLITICO, 12 December)

Scholz received by Morawiecki on inaugural visit

On 12 December, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Poland’s Warsaw as part of his inaugural visit. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki received the Chancellor with military honours. The talks focused on the Poland-Belarus migrant crisis, where Scholz condemned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for his “inhumane and we have a common task to repudiate such acts”. Morawiecki responded to Scholz’s comment: “I described to the Chancellor the changed tactics that the Lukashenko regime is now using in this artificially triggered migration crisis, the use of people as living shields, as weapons.” Speaking on the Russia-Ukraine border standoff, Scholz commented: “It is important that Europe makes clear together that we will not accept this and that we do not agree with what is happening there… We will not accept a violation of those orders.” Confirming the commitment to providing Ukraine with gas transits after Nord Stream 2 becomes functional, he said: “We continue to feel responsible for ensuring that Ukraine’s gas transit business remains successful.” The meeting between the heads coincided with the 30-year anniversary of the Treaty of Good Neighbourship and Friendly Cooperation between the two countries. Scholz's visit to Warsaw followed his trips to Paris and Brussels. (“Germany's Olaf Scholz visits Poland amid growing differences,” Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2021)


11 December 2021, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #70

The Ukrainian History: Relations with Russia and the EU

Germany in disagreement with green nuclear energy of France; Strom Barra in Spain; Report by PWC on Ireland's health services cyberattack

Photo : Wikimedia Commons


IN FOCUS    

By Joeana Cera Matthews

The Ukrainian History: Relations with Russia and the EU

Russia - An Unsatisfied Aggravator

Historically, Russia issues ultimatums that it itself would fail to abide by not maintaining the status quo. Commenting on this trend, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an article for Foreign Affairs writes: “History shows that pledges of neutrality by Ukraine or any other country in the region do nothing to abate Putin’s appetite; rather, they feed it. The best way to respond to such ultimatums is to ignore them altogether.” Russian aggression in Ukraine is termed to have created the ‘greatest security crisis in Europe since the Cold War.’

Following the Euromaidan protests, Russia’s intention behind opposing Ukrainian accession both into the EU and NATO was quite evident. After the pro-Putin President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was ousted by Ukrainian citizens via the Euromaidan protests, Putin was left without a player in the country. As Kuleba explains: “With his client out of power and no way to change Ukraine’s orientation from within, the Russian president resorted to violence. In early 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, occupied Crimea, and launched a deadly war in the Donbas.” Noticing the strategic change in the Ukrainians, the Kremlin, as a last resort now maintains that it is in the best interests of all actors that Ukraine remains neutral and not accede into either the EU or NATO. This was the stance maintained earlier by Ukraine, however, it never deterred the 2014 Crimean annexation by Russia; Moscow, thus, seems unjustified in its demands of Ukrainian neutrality.

Despite the protraction of crises, Russia seems to be playing a game it does not lose. Looking past the opposition that Moscow has against the expansion of NATO, the same implies an opportunity for the Kremlin to veto Ukrainian foreign policy decisions; if NATO denies the accession, Russia would be provided with a fresh chance to better the Ukrainian status quo. Kuleba further adds the unsuccessful attempts at appeasing Russia would be lesson enough to begin considering deterring its aggression. He writes: “The West shouldn’t appease Russia by agreeing to negotiate over NATO, nor should it give Russia the satisfaction of rejecting its ultimatums. Rather, the West should simply ignore them, continuing to hold further rounds of talks while refusing to bow to Putin’s ultimatums on Ukraine and NATO.”

The Ukrainian resolve

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, has cultural, economic, and political bonds with Russia. During the Cold War period, Ukraine was the US’ ‘archrival’. Second, to only Russia, Ukraine was the most influential of the 15 Soviet republics. The familial ties held by Ukraine and Russia are quite strong with Kyiv sometimes being termed “the mother of Russian cities”. Thus, it is not easy for Ukraine to walk away or release itself from the historical relationship that it shares with Russia. Losing Ukraine, especially to the West, will inevitably affect the superpower image Russia attempts to hold on to. 

While Yanukovych was the President, the idea was for Ukraine to be aligned with Russia. After his ousting, the country has seen significant backing for accession into the EU and NATO from civilians and other domestic actors. The resolve portrayed by the Ukrainian public finally led to the goals of EU and NATO membership being included in the Ukrainian constitution in 2018. 

Is the West to blame?

In 2008, NATO agreed to the US’ demands to accept and protect Kyiv and Tbilisi, despite the opposition posed by France and Germany at the Bucharest Summit. The West can be accused of its inability to include Ukraine and Georgia in NATO which eventually led to the increased Russian aggression along with the protraction of the crisis. The disappointing factor in the whole ordeal was that neither Russia’s interests were upheld nor those of Ukraine and Georgia. Since then, Russia has been on its guard against NATO forces as the disregard reflected via their 2008 decision concerned the Kremlin. This also led to Tbilisi and Kyiv being vulnerable to the attacks of Moscow, more often than not being “protected” or “aided” by the Western forces. 

References:

Dmytro Kuleba, “Don't Sell Out Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, 11 December 2021.

Jonathan Masters, “Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia,” Council on Foreign Relations, 02 December 2021.

Paul Taylor, “Ukraine: NATO's original sin,” POLITICO, 23 November 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan and Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY

Germany is not in consensus with France’s nuclear energy

On 09 December, Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said: “Germany will oppose French efforts to label nuclear electricity as green energy.” The French government has proposed to build new nuclear reactors and gas as part of green investment. Although Germany is dependent on gas, it has opposed France as it does not see nuclear energy as green. The European Commission is said to reveal the investment rules for nuclear and gas on 22 December. However, a debate is expected to happen between the leaders of Germany and France on the same. (Wester Van Gaal, “Germany tells France: 'nuclear is not green' EU Observer, 10 December 2021)

RUSSIA

Russian Olympic Uniform not to bear the country flag for Beijing Olympics

On 10 December, Russia unveiled the national uniform for the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics 2022 without the country’s tricolour flag. Zasport, couturier for the Russian Olympic Team has revealed the uniforms of red, white, blue and grey. These uniforms were designed with the logo of the Russian Olympic Committee instead of the national flag of Russia. The change in uniforms come due to sanction levied by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) against Russia for disclosing the doctored laboratory data to international anti-doping authorities that could have aided to recognize drug cheats. (“Russia presents flagless uniforms for Beijing Games,” Reuters, 11 December 2021)

SPAIN

Storm Barra's effects in Spain

On 10 December, a person in Spain was killed when the river Argal burst out of its banks and engulfed part of Spain's Navarre region. The river's overflowing caused landslides that killed the individual who was a resident in the village of Sunbilla. People in the area are kayaking their way around the regional capital of Pamplona as the waters are at waist-deep depth. Storm Barra brought torrential rains in the low-lying regions with thawed snow in the higher altitudes. The storm rains and snow were the cause of the river overflowing. The government in the area had declared a level two flood warning as they predicted the weather to be the same till Saturday. ("Spanish floods claim the first victim as towns are engulfed,BBC, 10 December 2021; Vincent West, "Severe flooding kills one as Storm Barra drenches northern Spain," REUTERS, 10 December 2021)

 THE UNITED KINGDOM

Post-Brexit agreement on North Sea fishing catch limits

On 10 December, Britain, Norway and the European Union signed a fishing catch limits agreement in the North Sea for 2022. The agreements come after UK's Brexit and are in line with the catch levels set by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Britain's Fisheries Minister Victoria Prenti said: "We are confident that this agreement has struck a balance that will benefit both our fishing industry and ensure our marine environment is healthy and viable long into the future,". The agreement aligns with the UK's sustainability goals to protect fish stocks. The UK government has always negotiated for stock management based on a scientific method to protect the countries interest and create a viable marine environment. ("UK, Norway and EU sign agreement on North Sea fishing catch limits," Reuters, 10 December 2021; "UK agrees 2022 fishing catch limits with EU and Norway,GOV.UK, 10 December 2021)

THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND 

May 2021 cyber attack on Irelands health services

On 10 December, an independent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) about the cyberattack on Ireland's health services said, the attack had "a far greater" impact than what was expected. The attack in May 2021 affected more than 80% of the Irish Health Service Executive (HSE) IT infrastructure. As a result, thousands of peoples' healthcare was disrupted with all the computers switching off. The attack was perpetrated by a group called Conti, and the ransomware according to the report has been linked to Russian criminal gangs. The report suggested that a "transformational change" was needed in dealing with technology and cyber-security. Even though the attackers gave the decryption key, which allowed the recovery to begin, it took until late September for all the computer services to work. The 157 report still says that "The HSE remains vulnerable to cyber attacks that may have an even greater impact". (Gordon Corera, "Irish health cyber-attack could have been even worse, report says," BBC, 10 December 2021; Shawn Pogatchnik, "Weak defences made cyberattack on Irish hospitals easy, experts find,POLITICO, 10 December 2021)


10 December 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #69

Russia and Ukraine: Options for NATO, the EU, and the US

France agenda for upcoming EU Presidency; Biden’s promise for NATO states; The House of Commons pass travel clearance bill for non-Irish EU citizens

Photo : NATO .intl


IN FOCUS  

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Russia and Ukraine: Options for NATO, the EU, and the US

Russia in Ukraine

The alleged 100,000 Russian troops amassed along the Ukrainian borders has raised concerns of the West – especially that of the EU, the US, and NATO. In the face of Russian aggression, what are the options available for these actors?

Options for the US

The US-Russia relations have been on the downslide since the Crimean annexation. The bilateral ties only worsened with accusations being hurled over at Moscow for various reasons including interference in the 2020 US elections. The US has always been antagonistic about Russian interests in the eastern European region. On 20 November, while visiting Africa, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed this concern, saying: “We know the playbook of trying to cite some illusory provocation from Ukraine or any other country and using that as an excuse for what Russia plans to do all along.” On 01 December, visiting Riga in Latvia, Blinken warned of the imposition of sanctions on Russia that would be heavier than any imposed to date. Blinken stated: “Should Russia follow the path of confrontation, when it comes to Ukraine, we’ve made clear that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high impact economic measures that we have refrained from pursuing in the past.” Later, holding a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, he warned of “serious consequences” if the Kremlin attempted to destabilize the already fragile status quo in Ukraine.

However, the US is not as concerned about Europe, in particular eastern Europe, as it used to be. The recent trends point towards Washington redirecting its attention to deal with the problem of a rising China. They do not intend to be dragged down by the distracting commitments the region holds. On 07 December, holding a meeting with Putin, US President Joe Biden was reported to have denied the possibility of  Ukraine being provided with troops. Nonetheless, this does not by any means imply that Ukraine is being left unattended for Russian forces to devour it. 

Options for the EU

The EU has primarily stuck to indirect dialogue, in the form of threats and harsh comments, attempting to scare Russia into staying out of Ukraine. The options in front of the EU include defining the sanctions the bloc intends to impose on Russia if Ukraine is attacked. Individual countries from within the bloc could also deal with the crisis. In the case of Germany, newly elected German Chancellor Olaf Scholz leveraged the Nord Stream 2 that is yet to be authorized, to warn Russia of the possible “consequences” the pipeline would face if Russian aggression escalated. France has also been vocal with regard to its stance on opposing and warning Moscow of the repercussions of such aggression. Provision of market space, financial assistance, and backing on progressive institution-building could be other areas via which Brussels could contribute to realistically supporting Ukraine to deter Russia. Indulging pro-European Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova should also be among the top priorities for the EU. 

Collective action: Options for NATO

Other than the individual options available, collective action can be undertaken via NATO. The Ukrainian military can be backed by NATO forces, essentially strengthening both the military as well as the society to withstand Russian aggression. Provision of training, supply equipment along intelligence sharing can also be considered. Such cooperation would enable Ukraine to resist and counter threats in the form of hybrid attacks. Patrols along the Black Sea, avoiding provocation, should be continued. NATO can act as an advisory or counsel for Ukraine, effectively reminding the country to maintain the status quo. Russia has always demanded NATO to stay away from Ukraine in order to avert unnecessary provocations that could lead to regional destabilization. In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about red lines, saying: “We’re constantly voicing our concerns about this, talking about red lines, but we understand our partners – how shall I put it mildly – have a very superficial attitude to all our warnings and talk of red lines.” 

The Impact

In 2016, when Crimea was captured by Russian forces, the only action is undertaken by NATO, the US and other Western forces was that of imposing sanctions. However, there exists a questionability about the impact of sanctions on Russia. The country has reduced its dependence on foreign markets via holding large currency and gold reserves since the Crimean invasion. This independence allows the Kremlin a breathing space even in the face of sanctions. There was no effort at providing military backing to the Ukrainian forces by NATO. As Paul Taylor states in an article on POLITICO: “The lesson was clear: Neither the US nor European allies are prepared to risk war with Russia over Ukraine or Georgia. To acknowledge this is not appeasement but realism. To pretend otherwise is a cruel deception.” 

For those who claim that NATO or EU accession is the key to deterrence and end to the conflict, it is a dream too far away in the future to be converted into a reality. Also, Russia will not watch idly as Ukraine is taken away from them. The prospect of accession either into the EU or NATO is costly risk, the consequences of which need to be calculated at length. Nonetheless, intaking countries which fail to have complete sovereignty over their territories is detrimental when considering the ability to secure the North Atlantic region. 

References:

Russia says it has 'right to defend its security,' as Biden warns of sanctions,” Deutsche Welle, 08 December 2021.

US President Biden to speak with Russia's Putin on Tuesday,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2021.

Humeyra Pamuk and Sabine Siebold, “U.S. tells Russia to pull back from Ukraine or face painful sanctions,” Reuters, 01 December 2021.

US top diplomat Blinken warns of 'serious consequences' if Russia attacks Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2021.

Paul Taylor, “Ukraine: NATO's original sin,” POLITICO, 23 November 2021.

Russia slams Western 'hysteria' over Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 21 November 2021.

Andrew Roth, “Biden says he won’t send US troops to Ukraine to deter Russian threat,” The Guardian, 08 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE

French President reveals priority agenda for upcoming Presidency of the EU

On 09 December, French President Emmanuel Macron revealed the priorities of Paris for the upcoming presidency of the 27-nation bloc. The agenda covered six aspects: reforming the Schengen, defending Europe’s social model, reconciling climate ambitions and economic development, digital transformation, the rule of law, and the French presidential race. Towards reforming the Schengen, Macron said that he wanted Europe to control its borders and will introduce a reform of the Schengen free-movement area. He said: “….we must absolutely find a Europe that knows how to protect its borders and find a political organisation that puts us in a position to defend its values, which is why we will initiate, under this presidency, a reform of the Schengen area.” Another highlight of the schedule is the plan to introduce the EU's new border carbon tax. This plan aims to implement the carbon tax at the borders of Europe, which will enable transition in industries and promote competition. Macron said: “move towards a European tool to fight deforestation.” Apart from these, France's priorities also include transforming Europe into a digital power. (“Six takeaways as Macron unveils priorities of French EU presidency,” Euronews, 09 December 2021)

 

GERMANY

Germany’s new foreign minister to face the diplomatic rift between the US and Berlin

The new foreign minister of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, has been caught in a diplomatic rift between the US and Berlin. The issue is, the US has been levying back-to-back sanctions on the coalition government of Berlin, demanding to block Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. While Russia has posed a threat for a military invasion in Ukraine and has also warned Germany to stop the supply of Gas as winter nears. Baerbock, a Greens co-leader, has been against the idea of a pipeline for a long time but has not voiced it out due to enduring support from the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. According to her, the pipeline only benefited Russia by undermining Ukraine, negating the climate change targets of the EU and conflicting with Europe’s geostrategic interests. Along with French foreign minister, Jean Yves Le Drian, Baerbock said: "The territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine are non-negotiable for us. Russia would pay a high political and economic price for renewed violation of Ukrainian statehood.” (Patrick Wintour and Philip Oltermann “Germany’s foreign minister under pressure over Nord Stream 2 sanctions,” The Guardian, 09 December 2021)

RUSSIA

Putin's comments on Donbas

On 09 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "We see and know what is happening in Donbas," referring to the conflict zone; "It certainly looks like genocide." His comments highlighted the issue of discrimination against Russian speakers living in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, Putin commented, "I have to say that Russophobia is the first step towards genocide." Vladimir Putin spoke about these issues and concerns as US President Joe Biden was scheduled to meet the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In the background, more than 90,000 Russian troops have been speculated to be stationed near Ukraine's borders, and tensions are at an all-time high. Biden spoke with Putin two days ago regarding the escalating tensions over a video call, and the leaders discussed the security concerns around Ukraine. ("Russia Ukraine: Putin compares Donbas war zone to genocide," BBC, 10 December 2021; "Putin says the conflict in eastern Ukraine' looks like genocide',"FRANCE24, 09 December 2021)

 

UKRAINE

Biden’s promise of support to NATO states of eastern Europe 

On 09 December, US President Joe Biden called and pledged support to NATO states of eastern Europe and Ukraine if Russia attacked Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke to Biden about a “discussed possible formats for resolving the conflict”. Biden also reassured the NATO leaders that he would keep them informed of all the agreements with Russia. Lithuanian diplomat Linas Antanas Linkevičius said that Biden’s “transparency” regarding Russia’s buildup in the region had been appreciated by Lithuania. Biden’s talk with NATO leaders came after his video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The latter voiced concerns about Russia increasing forces around Ukraine. Biden also reiterated his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on call with Putin. (Andrew Roth,“Biden promises eastern Europeans support in event of Russian attack on Ukraine," The Guardian, 09 December 2021; Andrius Sytas and Joanna Plucinska, “Biden pledges more military support for Central Europe, Lithuanian official says," REUTERS, 10 December 2021)

 

BREXIT

Travel clearance for non-Irish EU citizens

On 09 December, a Nationality and Borders bill was passed in the House of Commons. The Bill stipulates Non-Irish EU citizens or non-British citizens from other countries to require a pre-travel clearance for crossing the Irish border. The Bill is similar to the system US-Canada have for inter-country travel. The House of Lords is yet to vote on the Bill, and if passed, it will be implemented into effect only in 2025. The new laws would hinder many non-Irish EU citizens living in the Republic of Ireland, who frequently cross the border for work or leisure. Irish Deputy Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the government in Ireland will raise their "concerns and our objections." The Bill is part of the post-Brexit renewal of the UK's immigration laws. (Shane Harrison, "Brexit: Non-Irish EU citizens could face Irish border travel checks," BBC, 09 December 2021; Freya McClements and Pat Leahy," Non-Irish EU citizens will need 'travel clearance' to cross Border under UK plan," The Irish Times, 08 December 2021)

 


09 December 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #68

Eric Zemmour and the launch of his presidential campaign

AGMC fines Amazon with EUR 1.1 billion antitrust case; US denies troop assistance to Ukraine; Annalena Baerbock sets off on inaugural trip

Photo : France24


IN FOCUS  

By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

Eric Zemmour and the launch of his presidential campaign

Zemmour launched his Presidential campaign.

On 08 December, the incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron warned against the "manipulation" regarding the history of Vichy in France. His remarks came after the French far-right candidate Eric Zemmour repeatedly said that Vichy protected the French Jews instead of collaborating with the Nazis as historians claimed. Zemmour spoke on the radio: "It's my combat against repentance and guilt. The French people are permanently being made to feel guilty." Macron's trip to Vichy is the first for a French president since 1978. 

On 05 December, Zemmour's presidential campaign in Villepinte, a suburb of Paris, was joined by thousands of flag-waving supporters. However, the campaign escalated to chaos as fights broke out between the supporters and the anti-racism campaigners who stood up on chairs to protest. Aline Kremer, an SOS Racisme protest group member, said: "We wanted to do a non-violent protest… People jumped on them and started hitting them."

On 30 November, Zemmour announced his candidacy for President, where he promised to save France from corruption and minorities that "oppress the majority." Zemmour is a former journalist convicted for inciting racial hatred; who has always taken a robust anti-immigrant stance. However, his advancement as a radical right leader undoubtedly shows the rise of the far-right in France. He is also a top contender to the established far-right National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen.. 

 

The rise of Zemmour in France 

Zemmour's comments highlight the recent trend of the rising far-right in France acquiring more prominence. His quick advancement to political candidacy indicated that the French public had moved further right in a country where policies like social welfare and labour protections have dominated society's backbone. He even named his party "Reconquest," which referred to the period of Reconquista where Christian forces drove out the Muslim rulers of the Iberian peninsula. He mentioned: "If I win this election, it won't be another rotation of power but a reconquest of the greatest country in the world." 

Zemmour's campaign rhetoric of zero immigration policy and anti-muslim comments represent France's non-pro-immigration population. Jacques Ohana, a 65-year-old Paris surgeon, said: "Whether he's elected or not, he's already won the campaign." Zemmour also accused Macron of failing to deliver on his promise of change. Nevertheless, people feel aligned to his policies as he has brought back the "glory days" of post-war France. 

On 06 December, POLITICO reported an Ipsos poll that stated 64 per cent of the French felt there were too many migrants in France, leading to France's decline as a nation. In comparison, just 25 per cent said that France was not in decline. The poll likewise showed that 79 per cent of the French wanted a strong leader to reestablish the order. However, only 24 per cent of the French population think that Zemmour has the attributes to be the head of state.

 

The upcoming 2022 elections 

On 08 December, Macron's visit to Vichy and his comments on Zemmour's manipulation of history shows how the current government is stepping up against the far-right leaders. Moreover, according to The Guardian, "the polls currently show Macron as the favourite to win," indicating "the outcome of the upcoming elections". Macron has gradually changed his stance on asylum seekers, increased the budget of law enforcement, and expulsions of illegal migrants back to North Africa that has preserved his support from the centre-right. A possibility lies in a political alliance between Le Pen and Zemmour as the latter walked beside National Rally senator Stéphane Ravier on 08 December, discussing the need to build "a broad union". Zemmour further conceded that a "big union was needed to beat Macron". Furthermore, a possible deal between Le Pen and Zemmour could be achieved, but uncertainties still lie. 

References:

Angelique Chrisafis, “Macron takes on far-right presidential rival in visit to Vichy," The Guardian, 08 December 2021.

Rym Mumtaz, “How France pivoted to the right," POLITICO, 06 December 2021.

News Wires, “Fighting breaks out as French far-right candidate Zemmour launches 2022 bid with rally,” France24, 05 December 2021. 

Far-right pundit Eric Zemmour launches 2022 bid for French presidency," France24, 30 November 2021.

Gabriela Galindo,“They’re off: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour launch French presidential bids," POLITICO, 05 December 2021.

Clea Caulcutt,“Le Pen and Zemmour hate each other. Can they join forces?,” POLITICO, 08 December 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

GERMANY

Olaf Scholz: New Chancellor of Germany

On 08 December, the three-party coalition elected Olaf Scholz as German Chancellor following the term end of the long-serving chancellor Angela Merkel. Wishing the new chancellor, Merkel said: “I know from personal experience what a moving moment it is to be elected to this office.” Previously in September, the Social Democrats became the largest party in the election, which later pursued the Greens and the business-focused Free Democratic Party (FDP) to join. At the regional level, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron expressed their wish to work with Scholz in the future. With a new chancellor in place, the new cabinet will comprise 16 ministers, seven from the SPD, five from the Greens, and Four from the FDP. Being a former finance minister, Scholz has signed a few economic policies on short-time working schemes and short-term allowances. But the plans are yet to materialize.(“Olaf Scholz formally sworn in as German chancellor,” Deutsche Welle, 08 December 2021; Faisal Islam, “What Olaf Scholz means for the world economy,” BBC, 09 December 2021)

Baerbock set to kick off duties with trip to Paris

On 09 December, the newly appointed German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock set out on her first official trip. She visited Paris and Brussels and is expected to visit Poland on 10 December. Speaking on the importance of curbing climate change, she said: “I’m going to give international climate policies the space they deserve on the diplomatic agenda from day one… The most important task in diplomacy is preventing, containing and preferably solving crises… And no crisis is a greater threat to the future of humanity than the climate crisis.” Meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, she commented on their discussions regarding ‘shared goals’ along with issues such as the Poland-Belarus border crisis and the tensions along the Ukrainian borders. The possibility of diplomatically boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics was also considered. At Brussels, Baerbock met with EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell and the NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg. When asked about the idea behind the trip, she said: “The most important thing for me during this inaugural visit is to listen to our closest partners. We won’t pursue our own ideas and interests over the heads of our neighbours, and definitely not at their cost.” (“Germany's new foreign minister puts climate 'high up' on diplomatic agenda,” Deutsche Welle, 09 December 2021)

ITALY

Antitrust case: Amazon penalized with EUR 1.1 billion

On 09 December, The Italian Competition Authority (AGCM) penalized Amazon with EUR 1.1 billion for misusing its supremacy over the market. This follows a EUR 68.7 million penalty that the company incurred after they were found guilty of breaching EU laws by the AGCM. According to the authority, Amazon had created a harsh environment for service providers as third-party sellers were required to use their own logistics service termed Fulfilment by Amazon (FBA). AGCM stated: “The investigation showed that such benefits are crucial to gain visibility, to boost sales and, in turn, to the success of sellers’ offers on Amazon.it.” The e-commerce giant intends to appeal the verdict and said: “When sellers choose FBA, they do so because it is efficient, convenient and competitive in terms of the price… The proposed fine and remedies are unjustified and disproportionate.” The fine which is accompanied by countermeasures will soon be reviewed by a monitoring trustee. (“Italy fines Amazon €1.1 billion in antitrust case,” Deutsche Welle, 09 December 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Opposition party asks Johnson to resign over leaked video

On 08 December, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered an investigation into a Christmas party that was said to be hosted by the government at Downing Street against lockdown restrictions. The order comes as a video on the same was leaked. The incident sparked condemnation from various political parties, calling on Johnson’s resignation. Apologizing for the video, Johnson said: “I apologize unreservedly for the offence that it has caused up and down the country, and I apologize for the impression that it gives.” (“UK: Boris Johnson pledges probe amid outrage over lockdown Christmas party,” Deutsche Welle, 08 December 2021)

REGIONAL

Europol reports the Pandora Papers reveal the secret offshore accounts of world leaders

The European Union Law enforcement agency Europol has recently reported that it inspected millions of leaked documents of money laundering by using the Pandora Papers. The investigation executed by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) revealed many secret offshore accounts of former world leaders, politicians, and public officials. The list includes Jordan's King Abdullah II, former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and the leaders of Ukraine, Chile, and Kenya. The Europol's report said: “This is particularly worrying as the Pandora Papers reveal that many of those hiding assets in offshore locations are political decision-makers.” (“Europol identifying leads to target organized crime after Pandora Papers leaks,” Deutsche Welle, 08 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

France releases the suspect arrested for the murder of Khashoggi

On 08 December, France released a Saudi man who was considered a suspect in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The man was suspected due to the detection of a warrant in the passport that was issued by Turkey. After the arrest, the suspect's identity was investigated for 24 hours, post-investigation the Paris General Prosecutor's office released a statement, which said: “In-depth verifications to determine the identity of this person has enabled us to establish that the [arrest] warrant was not applicable to him, He has been released.” The arrest provoked serious criticisms from the Saudi Arabian embassy. The Saudi Arabian government has so far maintained that the investigations for Khashoggi’s killing stand complete and need no further probing. (“Khashoggi killing: French police nab wrong person in case of mistaken identity,” Deutsche Welle, 08 December 2021; Angelique Chrisafis and Stephanie Kirchgaessner “Man arrested in Paris over Jamal Khashoggi killing is releasedThe Guardian, 08 December 2021)

Biden-Putin Virtual Summit: the US denies provision of troops to Ukraine; Putin reiterates “right to defend its security”

On 08 December, The Guardian reported US President Joe Biden to have stated the possibility of troops being provided to Ukraine being null. This came a day after Biden’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Following the meeting, Biden said: “It was polite, but I made it very clear. If in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences, severe consequences. Economic consequences like you’ve never seen. I am absolutely confident he got the message.” Biden plans to conduct higher-level talks with Russia that would involve NATO members. Regarding this, he said: “... at least four of our major Nato allies and Russia to discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to Nato writ large and… bringing down the temperature along the Eastern Front.” Putin, in the meanwhile, commented on the talks saying: “I want to emphasise once again: the talks were very open, substantive, and I would say constructively. In any case, I hope the US side feels the same way about the results of our meeting… Every country certainly has the right to choose the most acceptable way of ensuring its security, but it must be done in a way that doesn’t infringe on the interests and undermine the security of other countries, in this case, Russia.” Biden will speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on 09 December. (Andrew Roth, “Biden says he won’t send US troops to Ukraine to deter Russian threat,” The Guardian, 08 December 2021; “Russia says it has 'right to defend its security,' as Biden warns of sanctions,” Deutsche Welle, 08 December)


08 December 2021, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #67

Greece: Pope Francis’ visit focuses on democracy, migration and Christian unity

Olaf Scholz takes over Merkel as German Chancellor; CAHAI’s recommendations on the world’s first AI treaty; Putin in India

Photo : Vatican News


Greece: Pope Francis’ visit focuses on democracy, migration and Christian unity

Olaf Scholz takes over Merkel as German Chancellor; CAHAI’s recommendations on the world’s first AI treaty; Putin in India

IN FOCUS    

By Padmashree Anandhan

Greece: Pope Francis’ visit focuses on democracy, migration and Christian unity

On 04 December, Pope Francis from Rome visited Greece as part of his eastern Mediterranean tour. The tour aimed to create awareness of the migrant suffering. A key part of the papacy is to humanize migrants and refugees. Upon visiting a camp on the island of Lesbos, the Pope said: “... because of Europe’s moves to deter and block migrants, the Mediterranean Sea, the cradle of so many civilizations, now looks like a mirror of death.” On his previous visit to the island, the Pope took a few migrants on the plane with him while returning to Rome. The migrant crisis faced by the island of Lesbos only adds to the larger European migration problem. Largely ignored by the EU, the papal visit was seen as an effort to bring back the attention of the bloc to the Island.

The visit

Pope Francis covered various aspects during his visit, from Christian unity to migration, and democracy.

First, Christian unity. Pope John Paul II was the first to visit Athens after the Great Schism between the Catholic minority and Orthodox Majority in 1054. The primary cause of the Schism was a dispute over papal authority between the eastern church and the Roman Catholic church. After the split, Constantinople was sacked in the fourth crusade of 1204. These events created an anti-papal feeling amongst the hardliners in Greece. Through his visit, Pope Francis asked forgiveness for the mistakes of the Roman Catholic Church and called for Christian unity in the country.

Second, migration. On the second day of his visit to the Island, Pope Francis conducted an open-air mass. He met dozens of migrants who were held as refugees in Cyprus and offered 50 of them a chance to move into Italy. According to EU statistics, in 2020, Cyprus received the highest number of asylum applications than any EU state, primarily due to the Syrian civil war.

Third, democracy. In his speech, the Pope warned that the easy answers of populism and authoritarianism are a threat to European democracy and called for “fresh dedication” to promote the common good over national interests. He suggested that robust multilateralism is a way to address the current issues and protect the environment from pandemics and poverty. He said: “Politics needs this, in order to put common needs ahead of private interests, yet we cannot avoid noting with concern how today, and not only in Europe, we are witnessing a retreat from democracy.”

Internal reaction

The open-air mass witnessed thousands of migrants who were mostly Filipinos working as housekeepers in Cyprus. But in one of the meetings in Athens, the Pope was interrupted by a Greek Orthodox priest who called him a heretic thrice. The Island of Cyprus witnessed minor protests against the Pope by those identifying as Christian Orthodox following this incident. 

What does it mean for Europe?

First, the visit of the Pope has brought a spotlight on migrants and refugees in Cyprus. Every year thousands of migrants reach the Island of Lesbos in search of a better life. But it has never got the focus like Belarus and the English Channel did. The Pope highlighted the division in acknowledging the migrant situation in Cyprus emphasizes the EU’s need to step up and bring reforms for the same.

Second, the intensity of the divide between the Roman Catholic and the Orthodox Catholic has reduced. The previous visit of John Paul II sparked protests across various parts of Greece objecting to the visit. When Pope Francis visited for the first time, he helped a few migrants gain asylum in Rome. This gave hope and confidence amongst the migrant community and, to some extent, even in the minds of Orthodox Christians. This led to reduced protests and opposition in the second visit.

References:

Pope Francis in Greece highlights plight of migrants and refugees,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2021.

Pope Francis hits out at EU migration divisions on visit to Greece,” France24, 04 December 2021.

Protesting Orthodox priest heckles Pope on Greece visit,” Independent, 04 December 2021.

Nicole Winfield and Derek Gatopoulos, In democracy's birthplace, pope warns of populist threats,” The Washington Post, 04 December 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

GERMANY

Olaf Scholz becomes German Chancellor 

On 08 December, the Bundestag voted in Social Democrat Olaf Scholz as the German Chancellor. Scholz, who was the finance minister in the previous government, is Germany’s ninth postwar chancellor. The parliamentary vote saw the new Chancellor winning a majority of 395 of 736 members’ ballots. He will head a coalition government called the “traffic light” which consists of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP). President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is expected to officially appoint Scholz as Chancellor. He replaced Angela Merkel who had been Chancellor for 16 long years. (Philip Oltermann, “ Olaf Scholz elected to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor,” The Guardian, 08 December 2021; Laurenze Gehrke, “Olaf Scholz elected German Chancellor,” POLITICO, 08 December 2021)

NORTHERN IRELAND

Storm Barra ascends in Northern Ireland

On 07 December, Storm Barra hit Northern Ireland with heavy snow and strong winds. As a result, a yellow warning was issued in Northern Ireland, while a red warning was in place in the South-west of the Republic of Ireland. The storm prompted schools to remain closed as the country was still recovering from Storm Arwen that hit just 10 days ago. Winds recorded 122 kilometres per hour at Orlock, County Down, with sleet and snow covering the west of Northern Ireland. The Irish Farmers’ Association urged its members to take utmost precaution while the Irish Police advised its people to avoid travel in the red and orange zones of warning. About 1,000 homes in Northern Ireland have been without power since the evening of 07 December. The power outage has raised people's concerns regarding the government’s vulnerable policy and management of storms, as they are not uncommon to the region. ("Storm Barra brings strong winds, heavy rain and snow to NI," BBC, 08 December 2021; Mark Brown, "Storm Barra: multiple warnings issued for Ireland and UK,," The Guardian, 06 December 2021)

RUSSIA

President Vladimir Putin's visit to India 

On 06 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi. The bilateral ties were already strained with growing discontentment since India joined the Quad. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about the displeasure and how the West was "trying to engage India in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies". The visit by Putin comes with Russia delivering the Russian-made S-400 missile defence systems to India that gives it a strategic deterrence to counter China and Pakistan. Apart from the missile systems, there were shared concerns about Afghanistan and how bilateral trade between the two countries could be improved. The leaders have aimed for trade between the two countries to touch USD 30 billion by 2025. In addition, India would give Russia USD one billion in line of credit as a business investment for the Russian far-east region. As Deputy Director at Washington’s Wilson Center think-tank Michael Kugelman said: "As long as trade, defence deals stay relevant, the two nations will find a way to sort out their geopolitics differences." (Vikas Pandey, "Vladimir Putin: What Russian president's India visit means for world politics," BBC, 06 December 2021; Dmitry Trenin, "Russia-India: From Rethink to Adjust to Upgrade," The Moscow Times, 06 December 2021) 

COVID-19

WHO’s Kluge states vaccination mandate to be “last resort” for Europeans

On 06 December, the WHO Regional Director for Europe Dr Hans Kluge said that mandating vaccines should be the final option for curbing the pandemic. HE said: “Mandates around vaccination are an absolute last resort and only applicable when all other feasible options to improve vaccination uptake have been exhausted.” A few countries across Europe started mandatory vaccination goals for 2022 after the EU Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen urged countries to consider the same. Governments imposed renewed measures to encourage unvaccinated people to get inoculated. To access cinemas, people in Italy would need a super health pass proving their vaccination or recovery against the virus. At the same time, unvaccinated Germans are restricted from public life. Dr Kluge discouraged the use of mandatory inoculations as a way of "discriminating between vaccinated and unvaccinated". The new Omicron variant is a reason for concern. As the WHO official, Mr Lindmeier said: “Let’s not get deterred right now, let us first get as much information as possible to make the correct risk assessment based on the information that we will have and then let’s move on,”. (Lauren Chadwick, "COVID in Europe: Mandatory vaccination should be a last resort, says Dr Hans Kluge," Euronews, 07 December 2021; Ashleigh Furlong, "WHO cautions against mandatory vaccination," POLITICO, 07 December 2021)

MIGRATION

Polish Foreign Minister condemns Belarus on “destabilizing” borders

On 07 December, Deutsche Welle published an article wherein the Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau condemned Belarus for “destabilizing” the border. He said: “Obviously it’s not a migratory crisis, it’s a political crisis purposefully launched by (Belarusian strongman Alexander) Lukashenko… You have to keep in mind that the migrants were first brought to Minsk by Belarusian authorities where they were instructed, some of them even trained how to behave at the border, how to cross it, certainly illegally, and how to deal with the police, border guards and so on.” Rau believes that the border standoff needs to be seen in relation to the military buildup at the Ukrainian borders and said: “We have to acknowledge the right of Ukrainians to defend themselves. We will support them the way they ask for.” (Konstantin Eggert and Roman Goncharenko, “Polish FM advocates 'most severe' sanctions against Belarus,” Deutsche Welle, 07 December 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

CAHAI to create world’s first treaty on AI

On 08 December, POLITICO reported the Council of Europe’s Ad hoc Committee on Artificial Intelligence (CAHAI) to have suggested a legally binding treaty on artificial intelligence (AI). The CAHAI’s sixth and final plenary meeting released recommendations after the meeting held from 30 November to 02 December. It said: “Possible elements of a legal framework on artificial intelligence, based on the Council of Europe’s standards on human rights, democracy and the rule of law.” The recommendations include various aspects of AI such as impact assessments, risk classifications, protection for whistleblowers, as well as AI development principles. The document is expected to be reviewed by the Committee of Ministers in February while negotiations on the same will begin by May; the ratification of the document is predicted for 2024. (“The CAHAI held its 6th and final plenary meeting,” Council of Europe Portal, 02 December 2021; Melissa Heikkila, “AI: Decoded: The world's first AI treaty - Timnit Gebru's new gig - The European Parliament starts work on the AI Act,” POLITICO, 08 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Biden-Putin virtual summit sees slow progress

On 07 December, US President Joe Biden met with Russian President Vladimir Putin via a virtual conference in an effort to de-escalate tensions along the Ukrainian borders. During the conference, the respective ambassadors were asked to maintain contact in order to make progress with regard to the border standoff. The virtual summit lasted for about two hours. Before the talks, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “Russia isn’t going to attack anyone, but we have our own concerns and our own red lines. (Putin) has made them clear.” After the summit, the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan commented: “The discussion between President Biden and President Putin was direct and straightforward. There was a lot of giving and take, there was no finger-wagging. But the president was crystal clear about where the United States stands on all of these issues.” (Julian Borger and Andrew Roth, “Biden and Putin make little apparent headway on Ukraine in the virtual summit,” The Guardian, 07 December 2021)

One of the suspects in Jamal Khashoggi's murder arrested

On 07 December, French authorities at the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris arrested Khaled Aedh Alotaib, a suspect involved in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Alotaib, a former member of the Saudi royal guard, travelled to Riyadh under his own name when he was caught and taken into custody by the police in Paris. The arrest came two days after French President Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi Arabia. Interpol put the suspects on a red list for killing the former Washington Post journalist Khashoggi, while Turkey issued warrants for their arrests in March 2019. Alotaib was part of a rogue operation, speculated to have been sent by the Saudi government "to persuade him to return to the kingdom". Instead, Khashoggi was injected with a drug that resulted in an overdose. His body was dismembered and never found. Since Khashoggi was murdered in Turkey, the suspect will be extradited to Turkey for the criminal proceedings against him. ("Jamal Khashoggi: Suspect in murder of journalist arrested in Paris," BBC, 08 December 2021; Lukas Kotkamp, "Suspect in Jamal Khashoggi murder arrested in Paris," POLITICO, 07 December 2021)


07 December 2021, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #66

Omicron - The New Virus Taking over Europe

Western countries extend support to Ukraine; Nehammer sworn in Austrian chancellor; ECB to redesign euro banknotes

Photo : REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration


IN FOCUS 

By Ashwin Dhanabalan

Omicron - The New Virus Taking over Europe

Europe’s immediate reaction to the new variant

On 30 November, countries in Europe scrambled to impose travel restrictions and regulations to stop the spread of the new COVID-19 variant called Omicron. Cases of the new variant continued to be reported from all across Europe leading to an immediate halt of flights to and from South Africa, with a few countries issuing travel bans. Since the new variant had undergone a high number of mutations, there were speculations of the variant being more transmissible and deadly. This new variant has increased risks to global economic growth and inflation. These have come to the forefront as countries started restricting travel to other countries, discouraging tourism. Governments like the UK had re-imposed restrictions on compulsory wearing of masks in public, mandatory PCR tests to enter the country, and suspected cases of Omicron were to self-isolate for 10 days. In other countries, existing restrictions to curb the spread of the Delta variant would momentarily be continued and expanded to control the spread of Omicron. 

Effects of the variant on state regulations and economies of the countries 

On 30 November, the economic impact of the variant led to a sudden fall in global stocks. The Euro fell 0.3 per cent against the dollar, while investors used the volatility to buy big; the variant brought more risks and volatility. The economic impact on the emerging markets has differed as the emergence of the new variant has stretched the already stretched supply chains and raised inflation to a higher level. Travel within Europe and to Southern African countries had been restricted with the strict imposition of a 14-day quarantine for fliers from the region, regardless of whether they test negative or positive. Austria extended its lockdown by ten days bringing the total duration of the lockdown to 20 days. 

 On 02 December, the European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen urged the member countries to consider making the vaccines mandatory to curb the rising cases of Omicron in the region; this led to protests in Brussels against the European Union institutions. Austria would make vaccination compulsory from February, while Greece stated mandatory vaccination for people aged 60 and above. Germany decided to bar all the unvaccinated people from non-essential businesses and were only allowed to work in essential jobs at grocery stores and pharmacies. 

 On 03 December, Ireland moved to tighten the restrictions, closed nightclubs, and reintroduced social distancing in restaurants. Norway introduced strict measures over Oslo and its surrounding regions with work from home and limited attendance at events. 

 Recent Developments regarding the virus

On 07 December, Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that the new variant is more transmissible than the delta variant as cases were doubling every two days. While the EU discussed easing travel curbs on South Africa as the new variant "was possibly mild" the hopeful updates motivated the European stocks to climb uphill, bringing confidence to European investors. But as the WHO suggested, it was too early to decide if the new variant is possibly mild or more aggressive. Europe had over 400 confirmed cases over the week, which led to an immediate meeting of the health ministers to evaluate the situation. They discussed measures to control the spread of the new variant by reinforcing the use of masks and other social distancing measures as they realized that vaccination jabs were not enough. Europe should not panic but prepare for a possible spread of the new variant.

References:

Andrea Shalal, “IMF chief says Omicron could dent global economic growth,” Reuters, 04 December 2021.

Anisha Sircar and Susan Mathew, “European shares bounce on hopes Omicron may be mild,” Reuters, 06 December 2021

EU Commission chief urges countries to consider mandatory vaccines amid variant fears,” France 24, 07 December 2021. 

EU health ministers meet as Omicron cases rise in Europe,” Times of Malta, 07 December 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

AUSTRIA

Austria sees third Chancellor in two months with Nehammer’s swearing-in

On 06 December, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen swore in Karl Nehammer as the country’s Chancellor at Vienna’s Hofburg Palace. The new chancellor took to Twitter, tweeting: “There is much to do! The pandemic is not over and it is straining our people… It must be our goal to drive back the division in our country and to fight together against the real enemy of our freedom and thus regain the trust of the people.” The third leader in two months and the sixth in five years, Nehammer is now burdened with setting the government on a non-scandalous path along with curbing the pandemic’s surge. The previous chancellor Alexander Schallenberg is expected to return to his post of foreign minister. The shift in power followed the resignation of former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who stepped down from politics to spend more time with his family. Nehammer, the Interior minister since January 2020, is also a Kurz-supporter who backs a hard-line anti-immigration stance. Before he was officially sworn in, the new chancellor had reshuffled the Cabinet. (“Austria: Karl Nehammer sworn in as new chancellor,” Deutsche Welle, 06 December 2021; Laurenze Gehrke, “ New Austrian chancellor vows to ‘drive back division’ in the country,” POLITICO, 06 December 2021)

FINLAND

UN names Finland as the happiest country in the world

Recently the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network named Finland as the happiest country in the world. Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin who became the youngest world leader in 2019 during an interview said: “Equality, a well-funded education system and a strong welfare state are the secret to the success of the world’s happiest nation.” During the pandemic, Marin gained popularity for managing the crisis but the five-party coalition has begun to show the gaps within. On a question posed to her on her thoughts if future governments would continue to push for equality, She said “ I think so. Because it’s work that’s ongoing. We have always worked for equality in Finland, and I think it’s also important in the future, and not only the equality of men and women, or the genders, but also the equality of minority groups in society. We have to make sure that structures don’t act as barriers to people. So, there are many things to do.” (Alexandra Topping, “Finland is the world’s happiest nation – and I want to keep it that way, says prime minister,” The Guardian, 05 December 2021)

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

Storm Arwen’s devastation to be followed by Storm Barra

On 06 December, The Guardian reported the Republic of Ireland to have issued a red alert while the UK issued yellow warnings in anticipation of the storm named ‘Barra’. Barra follows in the footsteps of the Storm Arwen that ‘wreaked havoc’ in Ireland and the UK. Warnings include those of dangerous coastal waves, atrocious driving conditions, travel delays, flooding and infrastructural damage. The Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth said: “That means that we’ll have especially large waves so there is a potential risk to life in these areas… likely to cause quite widespread travel disruption and potential road closures, delays to rail and ferries and so on, there is a chance of damage to buildings too.” The 80 mph forecasted gusts are predicted to make landfall by 07 and 08 December. (Mark Brown, “Storm Barra: multiple warnings issued for Ireland and UK,”The Guardian, 06 December 2021)

REGIONAL

ECB announces plans to redesign Euro banknotes

On 06 December, the European Central Bank (ECB) disclosed its plans of renewing the look of euro banknotes. The input from the public is scheduled to be taken by the 19-member eurozone on the redesigning. According to the ECB President Christine Lagarde After 20 years, it's time to review the look of our banknotes to make them more relatable to Europeans of all ages and backgrounds. The new designs are expected to be released by 2024. Eight EU member states, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden will remain unaffected by the changes. (“European Central Bank plans euro bill redesign,” Deutsche Welle, 06 December 2021; Richard Partington, “Euro banknotes to get a first big redesign with 19-nation consultation,” The Guardian, 06 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: West backs Kyiv against Russian aggression

On 06 December, leaders of the West expressed their support to Ukraine amidst the ongoing Russian aggression at the border. German, French, US, Italian, and British leaders reiterated the “need to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine”. Both the White House and Downing Street verified the talks between the US President Joe Biden, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and French President Emmanuel Macron. According to a senior official of the Biden administration: “We have had intensive discussions with our European partners about what we would do collectively in the event of a major Russian military escalation in Ukraine, and we believe that we have a path forward that would involve substantial economic countermeasures by both the Europeans and the United States.” The US also assured military backing to NATO along with the imposition of sanctions in the face of such an attack. On 03 December, Biden spoke to reporters, stating: “What I am doing is putting together what I believe to be will be the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do.” Biden and Putin are set to conduct a secure video call on 07 December at 1500 GMT where the US President is expected to clarify the possibility of Ukraine being a member of NATO. (“West determined to protect Ukraine sovereignty in face of 'Russian aggression',” Deutsche Welle, 07 December 2021; Andrew Roth and Julian Borger, “US says it will send troops to eastern Europe if Russia invades Ukraine,” The Guardian, 06 December 2021; Quint Forgey, “ U.S. and Europe ready 'significant and severe' sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine,” POLITICO, 06 December 2021; “Biden to warn Putin of 'very real costs' of Ukraine invasion in high-stakes call,” France24, 07 December 2021)

 


06 December 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #65

Putin’s Agenda in Ukraine

Macron meets Saudi Arabian crown prince; Belarus accuses Ukraine of invasion into airspace; The Pope’s visit to Greece

Photo : Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS


IN FOCUS 

By Padmashree Anandhan

Putin’s Agenda in Ukraine

On 04 December, US intelligence revealed a probable multi-front offensive early next year by the Kremlin using 175,000 troops. The troops are said to be accumulating on the border of Ukraine with a demand to guarantee that Ukraine will not become part of NATO and that the alliance will abstain from military activities in and around the Ukrainian territory. Russia denied stating that the mobilization was a measure to help modernize the Russian armed forces. While the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to happen in the coming days, tensions have already been built due to the Ukraine issue. Therefore, it is important to know why Putin is pushing towards Ukraine, the approaches are taken towards Ukraine, and analyze his larger vision.

The Issue

Russia assembling its military at the Ukrainian border has created frictions at the regional and international levels. But Ukraine has been preparing for a potential invasion of Russia by expanding its defence capacity. The takeover of Crimea was an easier task for Russia as it had the support of people, as they were Russian-speaking or had a historical connection to the land. This is not in the case of Ukraine which is inclined towards the West and Europe. NATO on one side has been supporting by sending its military arms into Ukraine to prepare for an attack from Russia. On the other side, the US along with the EU have imposed a series of sanctions to deter the border conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

As part of its economic strategy, Russia established the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to cut down the gas and oil transit revenues of Ukraine. As a counter, the US has been levying sanctions on the Russian shell companies to curb the influence of Russia but has so far not been impactful. With recent developments between the US and Russia, the problem of Ukraine has escalated into a clash of superpowers.

Factors influencing Putin’s decision

First, to regain imperial control. Since the 1991 dissolution of the USSR, the area starting from Central Europe to Central Asia has been labelled as the “post-Soviet space.” It is the primary factor for Putin, who considers the dissolution a disaster and intends to undo it. 

Second, maintaining power. Russia’s stronger stance over Ukraine is not limited to regaining imperial control but also enables Putin to stay in power. To stay in power and uphold his reputation inside Russia, Putin has to fulfil the wishes of the Russian elites. To achieve this,  maintaining the geopolitical power of Russia is more than vital.

Third, preserving the status quo. Annexing Ukraine is a resourceful opportunity for Putin to establish the status quo in the region. Through which Russia can be showcased as a superpower in terms of political, social, and military at the region and international levels.

Fourth, expanding Russia’s influence. This factor coincides with the imperial control dream of Putin. To counter the Western influence in the EU, Putin needs to strike influence in Eastern Europe to prevent the future threat of power struggle. 

What are the approaches?

The approaches of the Russian President in dealing with the issue of Ukraine can be divided into hard power and soft power. 

First, approach through hard power. The Russian leader has deployed various methods such as coercive diplomacy, strategic bombardment and limited offensive. Under coercive diplomacy, Russia by lining its military at the border of Ukraine is not only threatening Ukraine but also sending a message to the western powers. In strategic bombardment, Russia plans to exploit the gaps in Ukraine's air defence and electronic warfare capabilities. Through limited offensive techniques, it destabilizes and disrupts the inside situation of Ukraine.

Second, use of soft power. Russia has been trying to pursue Finlandization and altering the Minsk agreement in Ukraine to influence its politics and take control. Using Finlandization, Russia will be able to make Ukraine endure its foreign policy rules in exchange for nominal independence, allowing Ukraine to have its own political system. Russia’s recent threat against the EU to stop gas supply is also one of its soft power means to keep Germany and the US away from involvement in the Ukrainian issue. Along with these methods, the promise of security guarantees could also be a probable approach of the Russian leader, on which the US might agree. This is because the US, which is already tied in countering China’s rise, will agree to settle down for a security guarantee from Russia to settle the Ukraine issue.

The vision of Putin in Ukraine

The purpose of Putin in annexing Ukraine with Russia has many aspects. First, views on Ukrainian history. According to Putin, he does not see Ukraine and Russia as separate countries but as “one nation.” Ukraine is one of the firsts in Putin’s long-term goal in uniting all former Soviet Union countries. But for the countries which detached from the USSR, it was liberation. The end goal for Putin remains to merge Ukraine with Russia.

Second, to weaken Ukraine. The various approaches are taken by the Russian President mean to weaken Ukraine both militarily and economically and thereby to take control of the politics.

Third, power projection. When it came to deciding on deploying military forces at the Ukrainian border, redrafting the Minsk agreement or conditioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Putin always ensured Russia had the upper hand. The main agenda of Putin as the leader is to prove the powerful position Russia held on the international front.  

References:

Shane Harris and Paul Sonne, “Russia planning a massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns,” The Washington Post, 03 December 2021/

Gustav Gressel, “Why Russia could invade Ukraine again,” European Council on Foreign Relations, 03 December 2021.

Dmitry Shlapentokh, “Putin and Ukraine: Power and the construction of history,” Institute of Modern Russia, 08 September 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan

BELGIUM

Protests in Brussels against the COVID-19 restrictions

On 05 December, protestors angry over the COVID-19 restrictions stormed Brussels and marched towards the headquarters of the European Union. Initially, the march was peaceful but it took a violent turn when demonstrators started pelting stones at officers. That led to the Police using teargas and water cannons to disperse the protestors. The demonstrators were frustrated with the likely mandatory vaccination which is to be implemented by the EU in the future. And against the sanctions that the unvaccinated people had to face. Parents that joined the protests feared the harmful effects of the vaccine on their young children. The protestors echoed slogans of "Stop vax" and "Freedom" on their march in the capital. Even though Belgium had decided the COVID-19 restrictions at a national level the protestors were targeting the EU institutions in Brussels. (“Protest against coronavirus restrictions turns violent in Brussels,” Reuters, 05 December 2021; “Brussels police fire tear gas as COVID restrictions protests turn violent,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2021)

FRANCE

President Macron meets Saudi Arabian Crown Prince 

On 04 December, French President Emmanuel Macron met Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as part of Macron’s Gulf tour. The meeting brought to light the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and Macron would be the first significant Western leader to visit the kingdom in the shadow of the incident. Macron had stated that the meeting does not imply that he has forgotten about what happened but was meeting Prince Salman for France’s self-interests and its strategic interests in the region. Saudi Arabia had been frustrated about the US's approach to human rights issues, the war in Lebanon, and the release of intelligence linking the Prince to the murder of Khashoggi. The two countries also discussed the stalled nuclear talks with Iran and the crisis in Lebanon. While organizations like Amnesty international protested on outstanding issues of human rights with Saudi Arabia. (John Irish, “In Khashoggi's shadow, Macron holds Saudi talks with crown prince”, Reuters, 05 December 2021; “Khashoggi's shadow looms over Macron's talks with Saudi Crown Prince”, France24, 04 December 2021) 

 Eric Zemmour and his promise of a "reconquest" 

On 05 December, the far-right French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour in a political rally announced a “reconquest”. Zemmour has been trying to rally the radical supporters who are not with Macron’s centrist ideologies and named his party “Reconquest” evoking the historical "Reconquista". The rally turned into a scuffle after anti-racism protesters climbed chairs to stand against Zemmour, leading to the injury of five protestors. The police intervened and arrested several dozen anti-Zemmour protestors while the others were chased away. Zemmour has been convicted of racial hatred and has additionally mentioned statements against migration and Islam. During the event, he said: “If I win this election, it won’t be another rotation of power by a reconquest of the greatest country in the world.” He also promised to bring immigration to zero and cut the taxes of the working class, abolish an inheritance tax on family businesses and pull France out of NATO. His speech was welcomed by flag-waving crowds that ran into thousands. (Antony Paone and Leigh Thomas, “Far-right French presidential hopeful promises 'reconquest' at rally”, Reuters, 05 December 2021; Gabriela Galindo, “They’re off: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour launch French presidential bids”, POLITICO, 05 December 2021)

 REGIONAL

Belarus accuses Ukraine of invasion into airspace

On 05 December, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense called upon its defence attache after Belarus filed a complaint against a Ukrainian helicopter for having crossed into Belarusian airspace. According to Belarus, the helicopter had invaded one kilometre into its air-zone. The Belarusian Ministry released a statement that read: “The military attache was informed that the Ukrainian side is avoiding a dialogue to resolve disputes… which is very worrying.” Although Ukraine rejected the allegations, Belarus said that Ukraine posed a security threat to the country given their military drills that were being conducted at the border. Meanwhile, Ukraine believes Moscow would use Belarus as a launching pad for its attack on Kyiv. (“Belarus summons Ukraine attache over alleged airspace violations,” Deutsche Welle, 05 December 2021; “Belarus summons Ukrainian military attache over border violation,” Reuters, 05 December 2021)

 MIGRATION

Pope’s second visit to the Greek island of Lesbos

On 05 December, Pope Francis visited the Greek island of Lesbos and spoke about the migrant crisis as a "shipwreck of civilization”. After walking through the refugee camps of Mavrovouni he greeted the refugees and grieved. As “little had changed” since his last visit in 2016. He rebuked those who used the migration crisis as a means of political purposes and further talked about “living in an era of walls and barbed wire”. Where he referred to European leaders like Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Who called for the EU to jointly finance a border wall using barbed wire to stop the migrants coming from the Middle East through Belarus. The refugees were hopeful with the Pope's visit and found strength knowing that people like him were still thinking about the crisis than coming up with strategies like “pushbacks” that are being used in Greece. (Philip Pullella and Lefteris Papadimas, “Pope calls migrant crisis 'shipwreck of civilisation’”, Reuters, 05 December 2021; “Pope condemns treatment of migrants in Europe”, BBC, 05 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Ukraine: US officials raise concern over Ukraine under Russia

On 05 December, a senior US administration official warned of the possibility of Ukraine becoming “the next Afghanistan” if Russia were to overpower the country by early 2022. Speaking to the Washington Post anonymously, the official said: “The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders… The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,00 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.” However, Moscow has maintained its stance of denying any such plans while blaming Ukraine for amassing troops along its borders. The Connecticut senator Chris Murphy said: “I’ve been in Ukraine six times. I’ve seen the intelligence, the threat is serious… Ukraine can become the next Afghanistan for Russia if it chooses to move further.” Russia, however, has denied these claims. Deputy speaker of the Russian parliament’s upper house Konstantin Kosachev, while speaking to Russia-24, said: “There is no preparation underway for an offensive.” The US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to have talks over “a secure video call” on 07 December. (Martin Pengelly, “Ukraine could be ‘next Afghanistan’ for Russia if it invades, US senator warns,” The Guardian, 05 December 2021; Saim Dusan Inayatullah, “US claims Russia planning Ukraine offensive,” Deutsche Welle, 05 December 2021)

 Russian foreign ministry accuses US and NATO of risking civilian life via air accident

On 05 December, the US Air Force was condemned by the Russian foreign ministry for causing “a threat to civil aviation”. This followed an incident on 03 December, when two civilian aircraft and a NATO reconnaissance plane were caught in a mid-air-near-miss over the Black Sea. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova took to Twitter, tweeting: “Just because an air incident over the Black Seas’ Int waters has been prevented, this does not mean the US and NATO can further put lives at risk with impunity.” (“Moscow claims US spy plane nearly caused mid-air 'catastrophe',” Deutsche Welle, 05 December 2021)

 


04 December 2021, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #64

The NATO Summit: Key Takeaways

Portugal Interior Minister resigns; Finland reports first case of far-right terrorism

Photo : Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS


IN FOCUS

By Joeana Cera Matthews

The Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs: Key Takeaways

What happened?

On 30 November, Latvia hosted the two-day summit for the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs at Riga. Conducting a summit for the first time at Riga, the Alliance intended to send a larger political message regarding the essentiality of the Baltics to the Alliance. According to the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, the meeting focused on three issues: “Russia’s military build-up in and around Ukraine, the actions by the regime in Belarus, and NATO’s leading role in arms control.”

On 01 December, the Alliance also met with Ukrainian and Georgian officials to discuss the crisis escalation.

Russia and Ukraine

NATO-Russia relations lie on shaky ground since the Kremlin’s decision to cut off ties with the Alliance. During the meeting, the NATO ministers reiterated their intent to stay united in efforts to deter Russia from taking further actions that would lead to escalation of tensions. Moscow was called on to be more “transparent, de-escalate and reduce tensions”. This was followed by a threat from Stoltenberg who warned: “Any future aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price. And have serious political and economic consequences for Russia.” The organization has promised to observe and assess the fragile situation along the borders and promised its readiness to counter any Russian aggression. Ukraine was also commended on its “measured response” to a provocative Russia. 

Adding to his comments on Russia, Stoltenberg stated the organization’s commitment to defend itself while simultaneously deterring Russian military aggression. The organization noted the significance and necessity of dialogue during these tense times and regretted the Russian decision to alienate itself from NATO. He hoped that the Kremlin would soon reverse their decision and “re-engage in the NATO-Russia Council for the benefit of peace and security.”

Responding to a question on the delay pertaining to the Ukrainian accession into NATO and Russia’s role in the same, Stoltenberg elaborated: “To become a member of NATO, you have to meet NATO standards, and there has to be a decision by 30 Allies. We need consensus in the Alliance to enlarge and to invite a new country to join our Alliance… So it is up to Ukraine and 30 Allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the Alliance. (Russia) has no veto, no right to interfere in that process.”

The ‘Cynical’ Belarusian Regime

Stoltenberg condemned the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s “cynical and inhumane” attempt at pressurizing Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia via a “hybrid campaign”. He said: “Lukashenko should stop using vulnerable people as pawns in a political game against other countries.” On 25 November, Polish President Andrzej Duda had called on NATO, pointing out the need for the deployment of additional forces on its eastern borders. At the joint press conference with Stoltenberg, Duda said: “Caution and vigilance from NATO, which is responsible for the military security of the allies, is necessary.”

Arms Control

Stated to be a “priority for NATO”, discussions included talks on arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation. The NATO allies affirmed their aim of supporting a “world without nuclear weapons” but expressed their concern over the “worrying” nature of the global nuclear trends. References were made regarding the growing arsenals of Russia and China, the backing out from treaties, and other disruptive technologies that were essentially altering the nature of the conflict. Stoltenberg assured: “NATO Allies are determined to lead a renewed effort to strengthen arms control. Because in a more dangerous world, we need more predictability and more transparency.”

 

References:

Press conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Riga,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 30 November 2021.

Meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Riga: en route to the NATO Summit in Madrid,” Federal Foreign Office, 29 November 2021.

David M. Herszenhorn, “At NATO, Polish president calls for allied response to Russian troop build-up near Ukraine,” POLITICO, 25 November 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

PORTUGAL

Portugal's Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita resigns  

On 04 December, Portugal's Interior Minister Eduardo Cabrita, resigned after his car was involved in a crash that killed a road worker. He had been repeatedly urged to resign, but he refused responsibility, as he was in the backseat while his driver was driving. The government recently was not able to pass a state budget bill and with the snap elections coming up next month, he decided to step down. In his tenure as interior minister, he was accused of scandals, a custodial death by officers, and the mismanagement of the wildfires in central Portugal that killed hundreds of Portuguese. He also faced heat as he had given protective bandanas to the country's firefighters that were flammable. The Portuguese Prime Minister accepted his resignation after thanking him for his service and informed the President. (“Portugal’s interior minister resigns after car crash that killed road worker,” The Guardian, 04 December 2021)

FINLAND

Finland's first case of suspected far-right terrorism

On 04 December, Finland arrested five men suspected to have planned a bombing and a gun attack. The men belonged to the Southwestern municipality of Kankaanpaawere and were under surveillance for two years as some of them had previous convictions. The suspects participated in far-right ideologies of ‘accelerationism’ which, is a white supremacist ideological tendency that foments racial division. This ideology has been at the forefront of US mass shootings. The Police reported that they do not belong to a specific extremist organization but work as small groups. The group was found to possess arms and ammunition with homemade explosives for a possible attack. (“Finland arrests 5 over far-right terror plot,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2021)

UKRAINE-RUSSIA

Possible Russian escalation and Putin’s ‘red lines’

On 04 December, US President Joe Biden warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that it would be "very, very difficult” for Russia to invade Ukraine. This statement appears after the recent escalations and military buildups on the eastern borders of Ukraine. A video call is supposed to happen this week to further ease the tensions, but Biden has been firm on not "accepting anybody's red lines". Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Reznikov is concerned about a possible large-scale escalation by the end of January, this is similar to the US intelligence officials' claim of a possible offensive. While the deputy speaker of the Russian Parliament, Konstantin Kosachev denied any attack or preparation underway for an offensive. Russian Foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov said that President Putin will only be reiterating Russia’s “Red lines” in the negotiations ahead and he would demand a legally binding guarantee that NATO would not expand into Ukraine. (“Russia Ukraine: Biden warns Russia against Ukraine 'red lines,” BBC, 04 December 2021)

COVID-19

Europe reach a mark of 75 million corona virus cases

On 03 December, Europe hit the mark of 75 million coronavirus cases. More than 15 countries in Europe have reported the new variant cases. According to the European Union’s Public Health Agency, “the omicron variant could be responsible for more than half of all COVID-19 infections in Europe within a few months.” Eastern Europe has reported 33 per cent new cases and 53 per cent deaths of total Europe. This sums to 39 per cent of the region's population. In the region, the UK marked the highest number of infections, along with Latvia, the Czech Republic, Germany and Ukraine, where new cases have shot up. Several governments have taken various control measures to contain the spread by imposing restrictions in terms of lockdown in the unvaccinated parts of the country. (Aparupa Mazumder and Rittik Biswas, “Europe surpasses 75 million COVID-19 cases amid spread of Omicron,” Reuters, 03 December 2021

 

FRANCE

A joint French-Qatar evacuation operation in Afghanistan

A French evacuation mission took place in Afghanistan with the help of the ministry of Qatar. The evacuees consisted of journalists; civilian workers employed by the French army. As per the recent statement, 110 French along with 396 Afghans have been evacuated from Afghanistan till now. This evacuation operation also involved a humanitarian mission on supplying medical equipment, food and winter essentials to international organisations in Afghanistan through a military plane of Qatar. (“France evacuates more than 300 people from Afghanistan,” Reuters, 04 December 2021)

 

French President meets Saudi crown prince to reach a peace deal

On 04 December, French President Emmanuel Macron held an in-person meeting with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman. This will be the first time a western leader visits the kingdom after the Jamal Khashoggi incident.  France and its leader sees Saudi Arabia as a vital actor to strike a peace deal with Iran and to fight against Islamist militants in the MENA region.

Post the meeting, Macron said, “We talked about absolutely everything, without any taboos and we were obviously able to bring up the question of human rights.” From the point of view of Saudi Arabia, which has been facing global criticism after the killing of Khashoggi, the meeting with Macron will assure its arms imports. (John Irish, “In Khashoggi's shadow, Macron holds Saudi talks with crown prince,” Reuters, 05 December 2021)


03 December 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #63

Ukraine: Emanating military confrontations and escalating tensions with Russia

Karl Nehammer to replace Schallenberg as Austrian chancellor; Turkey’s declining currency; Ukraine concerned over Russian military build-up along borders

Photo : REUTERS/Gleb Garanich


IN FOCUS

By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

Ukraine: Emanating military confrontations and escalating tensions with Russia

Intensifying Ukraine-Russia tensions

On 26 November, President Joe Biden stated that he was concerned about a possible Pro-Russian coup plot in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the coup plot was to take place in the first week of December, as per the reports he received from the Ukrainian Intelligence. His remarks came after receiving an audio recording of the coup that included voices of Russians. He alleged that the Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov is funding the coup with Russian and Ukrainian accomplices. With these developments, Biden said he was “In all probability” open to speaking with Putin as he wanted to defuse the tensions in the region. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of NATO said that the “Military build-up was unprovoked and unexplained, which would lead to raised tensions and risks of miscalculation”. 

On 30 November, a day after the Russians violated their ceasefire violations according to the Minsk agreements. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken at the NATO foreign ministers' summit in Latvia said that “any aggression in Ukraine would trigger serious consequences”. The statement came after there was an unusual increase of movements near Ukraine's eastern borders. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko came forward to say that Belarus would ask Russia to provide them with nuclear weapons if NATO supplied them to Poland. Britain's foreign secretary, moving on the tensions, called on the allies to rally together if Russia moves towards Ukraine.

NATO's warning of “Serious consequences”

On 1 December, NATO nations took note of the significant Russian build-up and increasing troops in and around Ukraine. They discussed and drew parallels between the current tensions and scenarios back in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. Stoltenberg mentioned how Russia has been occupying parts of Ukraine and that if Russia does attack Ukraine again, “it would have to pay a high price with serious consequences”. These developments hinted at the fact that NATO would impose sanctions on Russia through the EU, the US, the UK, and Canada. On the next day of the meeting Eva-Maria Liimets, the minister of foreign affairs said that NATO was ready to welcome Ukraine and Georgia and that no other country in the region had any right to influence the decision. Ukraine was already a part of NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defense Centre of Excellence and NATO and reiterated that they were open to Ukraine joining as a member. 

Developments in the OSCE summit meeting 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met yesterday in the background of the OSCE summit. Blinken addressed the build-up of troops and military movements near Ukraine's borders and called out Russia to pull back forces and maintain a status quo. While Lavrov “stressed that Russia did not want any conflicts with NATO”. But, concerning Ukraine, Lavrov said “Russia maintains the right to choose ways to ensure its legitimate security interests” which furthers the speculations of Putin trying to grab a sizeable land in Ukraine to build a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. Putin mentioned that an immediate de-escalation of troops is not possible as he alleged that Ukraine had a troop build-up in the Donbas region. This escalation of tensions has brought the proposal of a new European security pact by Russia that would deter NATO from expanding further east. 

References: 

Alex Marquardt, Jennifer Hansler, Niamh Kennedy and Anna Chernova, “Blinken and Lavrov meet amid tensions over Russia's intentions in Ukraine,” CNN, 03 December 2021. 

Foreign minister reaffirms support for Ukraine and Georgia at NATO meeting,” ERR NEWS, 02 December 2021. 

Humeyra Pamuk, Sabine Siebold, Robin Emmott, and Vladimir Soldatkin, “Putin hits back as NATO warns Moscow against attacking Ukraine,” Reuters, 01 December 2021. 

Teri Schultz, “Russia has been warned: So will NATO defend Ukraine?,” Deutsche Welle, 01 December 2021.

West uses migrants against Belarus in case of Russia-Ukraine conflict — Lukashenko,” TASS, 29 November 2021. 

Steven Nelson, “Biden ‘concerned’ over alleged pro-Russia coup plot in Ukraine, likely to call Putin,” New York Post, 26 November 2021. 

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Padmashree Anandhan 

AUSTRIA

Interior Minister Karl Nehammer set to become the new chancellor

On 03 December, Interior Minister Karl Nehammer was picked as the new head of the ruling People’s Party (ÖVP) following the resignation of former party head Sebastian Kurz. He is also set to be the next chancellor since Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg followed suit with Kurz and resigned as well. As a formality, Nehammer’s nomination needs to be accepted by the Austrian president. Nehammer had become the interior minister in 2020. Following the appointment, the former interior minister chose to reshuffle the Cabinet. In this move, Gernot Bluemel was replaced by Magnus Brunner to be the next finance minister. Schallenberg is expected to return to his previous post of being the foreign minister for the country. (“Austria: Karl Nehammer set to become new chancellor,” Deutsche Welle, 03 December 2021)

TURKEY

Turkey’s currency crash and Erdogan’s ignorance of the crisis.

On 03 December, Turkey’s national currency plummeted about 45 per cent to the dollar, and yet Erdogan has been pushing an economic model that would exacerbate the crisis. Erdogan sees inflation as "an evil that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer”. Erdogan did reduce Turkey’s interest rates, but only by 1 per cent from 16 per cent to 15 per cent. Turkey's economy is an import-dependent economy and with rising inflation, the prices of necessities such as food and textiles have increased tremendously. The Turkish youth are the worst affected by the rising unemployment and have been showing their discontentment on social media platforms. Turkey did well after the 2008 financial crisis and received foreign funds, but it used those funds to invest in the construction industry and hence is still dependent on imports for basic necessities. (Ozge Ozdemir, “Why Turkey's currency crash does not worry Erdogan.” BBC, 03 December 2021)

REGIONAL

The EU to reduce support funds for wine producers.

On 03 December, the EU unveiled plans to limit alcohol intake by introducing a report to fight against cancer. The report considers any alcohol consumption to be harmful and does not distinguish between high-alcohol beverages and wine. The European Parliament’s Special Committee on Beating Cancer has been scheduled to take a vote on 06 December, the vote would state that there is no safe limit of alcohol consumption to prevent cancer. This would discourage the Greek wine producers as the EU would likely reduce support funds for this sector, the report if voted on, will be approved by 2022. (Tania Georgiopoulou, “Wine producers fear loss of funding due to EU policy,” eKathimerini, 03 December 2021)

Ukraine reveals concerns over Russian military build-up

On 03 December, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov addressed the parliament and stated that Russia had amassed 94,000 troops along the border. Backed by intelligence reports, he said: “Our intelligence services analyze all scenarios, including the worst ones. It notes that a probability of a large-scale escalation on the part of Russia exists. The most probable time when (Russia) will be ready for the escalation is the end of January.” Although no provocation would arise from the Ukrainian end, they are prepared to respond to any Russian attack. In the meantime, Russia has denied the allegations raised against them. Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev addressed the state television Russia-24, saying: “We don’t have any plans to attack Ukraine. We don’t have any heightened military activity near Ukraine’s borders. There is no preparation underway for an offensive.” (“Ukraine warns of possible Russian 'escalation' in January,” Deutsche Welle, 03 December 2021)

FRANCE

France signed a deal with the UAE to boost the defence industry

The French government has signed a purchase deal with the UAE of 80 Rafale military fighter aircraft worth EUR 16 billion. Additionally, another contract on the purchase of 12 Caracal helicopters was also signed. The deal comes as a result of the first-day visit of the French president in the Emirates which is said to continue to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This contract is said to boost France's defence industry after the loss of the submarine contract with Australia. (“UAE signs contract with France for 80 Rafale warplanes as Macron visits Gulf,” Euronews, 03 December 2021)


02 December 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #62

Nord Stream 2 and Europe’s Energy Supplies

Belarus hit with coordinated sanctions; Kurz and Schallenberg resign; Top lawyer asks ECJ to ‘dismiss’ rule of law challenges by Hungary and Poland

Photo : REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo


IN FOCUS    

By Harini Madhusudan

Nord Stream 2 and Europe’s Energy Supplies 

On 30 November, Britain’s Foreign Secretary joined a last-minute push and urged the NATO allies towards blocking the Nord-Stream 2 pipeline, claiming that Moscow would exploit its position as the primary supplier of energy to European countries. The UK, along with Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic States have been at the forefront questioning the wisdom of the pipeline. Nord Stream 2 is designed to directly deliver Russian natural gas directly to Germany, which is vital for the energy shortages in Europe. 

On 28 November, the German Foreign Ministry stated that it was continuing to work closely with the US on the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal. The ministry said that it was working towards a joint declaration for the USD 11 billion pipelines which runs under the Baltic Sea and carries gas from Russia to Germany. The US and some European countries oppose the pipeline because it bypasses Ukraine. Though the Biden administration, in July 2021, waived the sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and made a deal with Germany. However, on 22 November, the US imposed additional sanctions targeting Russia-linked Transadria Ltd and its vessel. 

Though the project is economy/energy-based, many in Europe and the US have made it a political one. They believe that the pipeline will undermine the European Union and NATO security, while giving Moscow a new weapon in its ongoing struggle with the West, additionally isolating Ukraine. The Nord Stream 1 & 2 have been supported by the former German chancellor, the second of which was completed in September 2021 and is expected to begin operations in early 2022. In November 2021, the project suffered a major setback when the regulators delayed the approval demanding the pipeline be compliant with German Law, which is expected to delay the start of the operations by several months. Additionally, the European Commission is also required to sign off on the pipeline before the transportation begins. 

The model of the pipeline by Gazprom is designed to divert away from the traditional supply routes that pass through Ukraine. This deprives Ukraine of billions of dollars as transit costs, which is seen as an existential threat to the Ukrainian national security. The delay of operations, on the other hand, would deprive the European region of their gas supplies which would likely worsen the energy crisis in Europe. The Russian argument says it is “purely a commercial project,” and called the unilateral decision of restrictions as “without reason.” 

The new three-party coalition in Germany has indicated their opposition to the pipeline. All three parties in the coalition have various reasons to oppose the approval of Nord Stream 2. With the NATO pressure and the green energy agenda of Europe, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is likely to be a factor of divisions within the EU member states and fuel the existing geopolitical crisis between EU and Russia, while leaving the immediate energy access undecided. 

References:

Germany says working with the US on Nord Stream 2 deal,” Reuters, 28 November 2021.

Patrick Wintour, “Liz Truss urges NATO allies to block Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” The Guardian, 30 November 2021.

Stephanie Monier, “Nord Stream 2 stalls on German approval as Europe looks to winter,” Lombard Odier, 30 November 2021.

David Brennan, “NATO allies want German pivot on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” Newsweek, 02 December 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Joeana Cera Matthews, Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan 

AUSTRIA

Schallenberg resigns following Kurz resignation

On 02 December, former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz declared his decision to resign from politics. Kurz, who recently donned the role of a father, maintained that his departure was an effort at prioritizing his family. Later in the day, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg, who was the obvious nomination for party head, stated that he would not be running for the same and would soon resign as head of the government. He stated: “I firmly believe that both positions – head of government and leader of the Austrian party with the most votes – should soon once again be held by the same person… I am therefore making my post as chancellor available as soon as the relevant course has been set within the party.” Kurz had stepped down as chancellor after corruption allegations were directed at him. He included a reference to the same in his resignation statement, saying how the “accusations” hampered his ability to work well. (“Austrian chancellor resigns after Sebastian Kurz withdraws from politics,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2021)

REGIONAL

ECJ top lawyer advices ‘dismissal’ of the rule-of-law challenge posed by Hungary and Poland

On 02 December, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) advocate general Manuel Campos Sanchez-Bordona asked the court to ‘dismiss’ the challenge brought forth by Poland and Hungary against the rule-of-law mechanism. Although such advice is non-binding, the court usually takes such opinions into consideration. Responding to this, Poland’s deputy justice minister Sebastian Kaleta took to Twitter: “It was a naivety to trust EU institutions would be capable of self-restraint. This is an assault on the rule of law.” The creation of the EU’s rule-of-law mechanism, in December 2020, was a reply to those deviants who failed to abide by the rules of the bloc. Primarily, the economy of the member state would be affected since funds designated for these members would be withheld. Hungary and Poland have argued the lack of a legal ground for the mechanism’s application. The EU has not used the mechanism to date since they await the ECJ’s review on the matter. (“European Court of Justice likely to dismiss Poland, Hungary 'rule-of-law challenge,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2021)

MIGRATION

Western countries impose severe coordinated sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime and close associates

On 02 December, the US, the EU, the UK and Canada together imposed sanctions on people and entities related to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The statement mentioned that the sanctions were levied due to the “continuous attacks on fundamental freedoms, human rights, acts of repression and disregard of the international norms”. It is believed that the Belarusian regime tricked migrants to enter Belarus promising for easy migration into Europe. At the Council of Ministers in Brussels, the EU diplomats decided to impose sanctions on those who were directly involved in bringing in the migrants. The fifth set of sanctions directed at the regime covers several commanders who were in the border strife and Belarusian state airline Belavia and Syrian airline Cham wings. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department also imposed restrictions on "dealings in new issuances of Belarusian sovereign debt, limiting the government's ability to borrow money”. It also targeted the associates of Lukashenko’s son, as well as others related to third-country airlines and a potash company. Belarus responded by stating that these sanctions would hurt the civilians and requested for reconsideration of the same. However, they also warned of responding via asymmetrical measures. (“EU, UK, US, Canada issue coordinated sanctions against Belarus regime,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Blinken warns Russia of ‘serious consequences’ if tensions with Ukraine escalate

On 02 December, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting addressed the issue of the Russian aggression near the Ukrainian borders as Blinken warned the “serious consequences” that an escalation of the same could ensue. The leaders met in the backdrop of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Stockholm. While Blinken maintained that “the best way to avert crisis is through diplomacy”, Lavrov explained: “We, as President (Vladimir) Putin has stated, do not want any conflicts.” (“US top diplomat Blinken warns of 'serious consequences' if Russia attacks Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2021)


 


01 December 2021, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #61

Lithuania, Taiwan, and China

Hungary to hold referendum on LGBTQ issues; Germany makes COVID-19 vaccines mandatory for senior citizens; Baltic states and Poland impose further measures to deter migrants as well as the Russian forces.

Photo : EPA/ BBC


IN FOCUS    

By Joeana Cera Matthews

Lithuania, Taiwan, and China

What happened?

On 21 November, China retaliated to Taiwan opening its representative office in Vilnius by downgrading diplomatic relations with the country to the “charge d’affaires” level. According to a statement via China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “The Chinese government had to lower diplomatic relations between the two countries… in order to safeguard its sovereignty and the basic norms of international relations… The Lithuanian government must bear all consequences that arise from this… (their actions) created a bad precedent in the international arena.” However, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte responded to the escalation of tensions by saying: “Our government’s programme says Lithuania wants a more intense economic, cultural and scientific relationship with Taiwan... (But) I want to emphasise that this step does not mean any conflict or disagreement with the ‘One China policy.” 

On 18 November, Taiwan opened its de facto embassy at Vilnius in Lithuania called the ‘Taiwanese Representative Office’. Back in July, the announcement of the decision to move ahead with the same had angered China. A multi-fold retaliation followed. China demanded Lithuania to recall its ambassador to Beijing after withdrawing its own; freight trains to the Baltic state were stopped along with the issuing of food export permits. 

What is the background?

First, the impact on the economy. The Lithuanian vice minister of foreign affairs Arnoldas Pranckevicius commented on the tensions impacting their economy: “I think it is a wake-up call in many ways… China is trying to make an example out of us - a negative example, so that other countries don’t necessarily follow that path, and therefore it is a matter of principle how the Western community, the United States, and European Union reacts.” In response to the economic consequences faced by the country, the US agreed to financially support the country; Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabriellus Landsbergis requested similar support from the EU. 

Second, a historical resemblance. The Eastern European countries might also be reminded of the horrors of their past when dealing with China. The similarity of the ‘authoritarian giant’ with the USSR during the Cold War certainly does not sit well with them. In line with this sentiment, the speaker of the Czech Senate Milos Vystrcil said: “We know very well from our own history what it’s like to live with a big brother behind your back… And this is why we support Taiwan because they live with a big brother behind their back, the People’s Republic of China.” In response to this, the Taiwan Foreign Ministry released a statement that said: “Like Taiwan, countries in Central and Eastern Europe have gone through the shackles of authoritarian regimes and uphold the shared values of democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law.” 

Third, the perception of China. According to a 2020 opinion poll by Palacky University Olomouc (the Czech Republic) and the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (Slovakia), China is the most negatively perceived, following North Korea and Russia. This affects the Chinese ambitions for the region in the fields of trade and investments, especially in the backdrop of the failure of the 17+1 grouping. Even the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which created a huge furore in its wake is being viewed with scepticism by the region. 

Fourth, the Chinese territory of Taiwan. China claims Taiwan to be its own territory and, in this backdrop, requires that the territory be called ‘Chinese Taipei’. However, Taiwan considers itself to be independent and sovereign. China’s website even had a statement from the foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stating: “We urge the Lithuanian government to abide by the solemn political commitments made when establishing diplomatic relations with China and not to make irreversible wrong decisions… The European side should adopt a correct position and prevent interference with the healthy development of China-EU relations.” Another Chinese statement read: “Taiwan is never a country. No matter how (much) ‘Taiwan independence’ forces try to misrepresent facts and confound black and white, the historical fact that the mainland and Taiwan belong to one and same China cannot be changed.”

Inferences

First, Eastern Europe’s growing relations with Taiwan. Eastern Europe is cosying up to Taiwan despite the threats forwarded by China. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu visited Slovakia and the Czech Republic during the last week of October. Poland and Slovakia donated COVID-19 vaccines to Taiwan. While western Europe faces difficulties with respect to maintaining ties with China, eastern Europe reflects this via getting closer to Taiwan in the face of an enraged China. 

Second, the unlikely possibility of complete cancellation of ties. China cutting off all ties with Lithuania is unlikely since such a move would encourage the Baltic state to turn to Taiwan. 

References:

China downgrades diplomatic ties with Lithuania over Taiwan row,” BBC, 22 November 2021.

Stuart Lau and Rym Momtaz, “China downgrades Lithuania’s diplomatic status over Taiwan row,” POLITICO, 21 November 2021.

Agence France-Presse, "China downgrades diplomatic relations with Lithuania over Taiwan row," Deutsche Welle, 21 November 2021.

Finbarr Bermingham, “Lithuania seeks more EU support as US offers US$600m to cushion impact from row with Beijing over Taiwan,” South China Morning Post, 20 November 2021.

Lithuania says its rocky ties with China are a 'wake up call' for Europe,” Reuters, 03 November 2021.

China warns Lithuania, European officials over Taiwan row,” Reuters, 30 October 2021.

Georgi Kantchev and Stu Woo, "Taiwan Gains Favor in Europe’s East, Angering China," The Wall Street Journal, 26 October 2021.

 

IN BRIEF

By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

HUNGARY

Orban’s government approves referendum on LGBTQ issues

On 30 October, Hungary’s parliament approved a referendum on LGBTQ issues. The lawmakers of the ruling Fidesz party agreed on four referendum questions pertaining to sex education programs in schools and the availability of information on sexual orientation to the children. Although the bill received substantial backing, opposition lawmakers abstained from voting since the bill included a statement on “unrestricted presentation of media content that influences the development of underage children”. The move orchestrated by Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been criticized in terms of suppressing human rights and recently, the European Commission launched legal action on Hungary for discriminating against the LGBTQ community. As per Orban, he has reasoned these actions as a measure to safeguard the Christian values from western liberalism. Another factor to note is Orban’s policies on gender and migration being in the forefront as the elections in Hungary draw nearer. Therefore, it can be an exercise to ensure his votes from the Christian community of Hungary stay put. (“Hungary approves referendum on limiting LGBTQ representation in education,” Deutsche Welle, 30 November 2021)

REGIONAL

Blinken and Lavrov set to meet on the sidelines of NATO summit

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is set to meet on 02 December amid the worsening tensions between Russia and Ukraine. This meeting comes a day after Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba participated in the meetings of NATO Foreign Ministries. Ukraine at the NATO summit has sought greater cooperation with the alliance and suggested sanctions against Russia. Although NATO itself cannot impose sanctions, its member states can. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised concerns about the significant Russian aggression against Ukraine and said that the US would respond with economic measures of “high impact”. Putin said that he was looking forward to the US-Russia discussions to work out ways to de-escalate tensions by excluding any new eastward moves by NATO, closer to Russian territory. Putin also mentioned that an immediate de-escalation of troops is not possible as he alleged that Ukraine had built up troops in the Donbas region. (“ US, Russian top diplomats to discuss Ukraine after NATO talks,” Deutsche Welle, 01 December 2021)

The EU’s Global Gateway to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

On 01 December, Brussels announced investment plans to raise EUR 300 billion for the European enterprise named ‘Global Gateway’. This is a part of Europe’s strategy to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) infrastructural projects. The Global Gateway is an alternative that would have high standards, good governance, and high levels of transparency keeping participant countries in an equal partnership. The EU through the Global Gateway would be able to provide a way to advance its strategic interests beyond its borders and offset Beijing's control. The discussion about the Global Gateway itself has affected China so much that Chinese President Xi Jinping began mentioning "about quality projects, and about sustainability”. The European enterprise will be tested when the EU and African Union hold a joint summit. A German MEP, Reinhard Bütikofer stated: “the initiative will open a new chapter in Europe's role in international relations.” (“EU plans to raise €300 billion to counter China's infrastructure spending,” Euronews, 01 December 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Post-Brexit fishing and its complications for Paris and London.

Amid the diplomatic tussle between Paris and London, Guernsey granted 43 fishing licenses to French boats to continue operation off the English Channel Island. Following the move, Guernsey's External Affairs Minister Jonathan Le Tocq said: “The new authorisations are a milestone for Guernsey to exercise new power and control over their territorial waters.” The European Commission had earlier asked both the governments to resolve the issues on the fishing licenses by 10 December. The contention has grown as even under the Brexit trade deal, EU fishing boats can continue to operate in British waters only if they can provide proof that they have a customary right of previously fishing there. It is difficult for the British and French sides to reach a consensus over the nature and extent of evidence for customary rights. France has been able to obtain 1000 licenses under the Brexit deal but is claiming for about 100 more of which 30 of them are top priority cases. (“Post-Brexit fishing: Guernsey grants over 40 licences for French boats,” Euronews, 01 December 2021)

MIGRATION

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania: Reimposition of emergencies and other restrictive measures at the borders

The EU has proposed a new measure that allows Poland and Belarus to suspend protections for asylum seekers. The European Commission intends to extend the rule to Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. This will enable them to hold up the existing asylum seeker applications from the previous 10 days to almost four weeks. In terms of the treatment of the migrants, the three countries have taken a strong stance and the European Commission backs their decision, although it stands to violate the EU and international laws on humanitarian grounds. According to a senior researcher from Brussels-based Center for European Policy Research: “The commission seeks to apply fundamental exceptions instead of making sure that current norms and standards are delivered by national governments.” (Elian Peltier and Monika Pronczuk “New E.U. Measures Set to Restrict Asylum Rights at the Belarus Border,” The New York Times, 01 November 2021)

COVID-19

Germany: Mandatory COVID-19 vaccines for citizens aged 60 and above

On 01 December, Greece’s premier said: “Greeks over the age of 60 must book their appointment for a first jab by 16 January 2022.” The statement made to the cabinet requires for the measure to still be voted in the parliament. Greece is said to become the first country in the EU to target a specific age group for mandatory vaccines. Germany will start fining all unvaccinated people over the “age of 60s EUR100 a month”. But there has been resistance to this decision from Greece’s main opposition party called the Syriza who feel that these measures are “punitive and financially excessive”. Austria too announced that it would start compulsory vaccinations in February. Meanwhile, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggested the European states consider mandatory vaccinations to combat the new COVID-19 variant of Omicron. (“Covid: Greece to fine over-60s who refuse Covid-19 vaccine,” BBC, 01 December 2021)


30 November 2021, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #56

The English Channel migrant disaster

Andersson re-elected as Sweden’s first female prime minister; Protests in Serbia and France; Morawiecki requests NATO to “connect the dots”

Photo : AFP


IN FOCUS    

By Padmashree Anandhan

The English Channel migrant disaster

On 24 November, a dingy containing more than 30 migrants who were trying to cross the English Channel to enter the UK drowned in the beach of Calais located in northern France. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron got into a blame game accusing each other of their irresponsible behaviour. To resolve the developed tensions between both countries, Macron arranged a meeting but the UK Home secretary Priti Patel denied the Calais meeting. This stirred the tensions further. As per Macron, France expects the UK to cooperate fully and abstains from instrumentalizing a tragic situation for political purposes. On 27 November, a statement was released by the UNHCR which read: “the agency was deeply shocked and saddened by the unprecedented tragedy that unfolded in the English Channel. In the absence of safer alternatives, people will continue to resort to such perilous journeys, and their desperation and vulnerabilities will continue to be preyed upon and exploited by ruthless smugglers.”

Background to the English Channel Crossings

The number of migrants who crossed the Channel has scaled from 1,835 in 2020 to 26,560 in 2021. The main reason behind the increase is said to be the treatment of migrants in France. The government has evacuated the migrant residing camps to allocate shelter but has failed to take any step in preventing the migrants from crossing the Channel. This has continued to be a problem for the UK despite its recommendation to France to install sensors and other technology that spots or deters migrants when they touch the shoreline.

From the migrant’s point of view, the UK has been the choice by default to settle. For migrants coming from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Albania, or any other North African country, the UK seem to be the destination. According to the International Health Journal survey taken from 402 migrants, 82 per cent opted to settle in the UK. Apart from seeking better living conditions or escaping the hostile situation, there are larger reasons for the migrants to migrate. One, the flexible application process for asylum seekers. Two, recognition and benefits for refugees to connect back to their historical family links and third the lesser chance of being sent back to their home country. Once migrants cross the channel and enter the UK, they are eligible to claim asylum, post which they have to prove the condition of non-return. At that point, they will be granted refugee status that lasts for five years and later this becomes the base for them to settle in the UK.

What does this mean?

First, absence of accountability in leaders. Both the leaders of the UK and France have not taken a strong stance to mitigate the migrant crisis. Instead, they only blamed each other for taking steps and missed to consider the humanitarian aspect of the migrants.

Second, tarnish the EU’s reputation. The EU has failed to tackle the issue of migration in the region. On one hand, while Poland-Belarus causes a ruckus, the English Channel migrant crisis has blown the reputation of the regional administration at the international forum.

References:

Channel disaster: Kurdish woman is first victim identified,” BBC, 28 November 2021.

Why do migrants leave France and try to cross the English Channel?” BBC, 27 November 2021.

Ros Atkins on... Migrants crossing English Channel to UK,” BBC, 27 November 2021.

UNHCR saddened by English Channel tragedy – urges action to prevent further loss of life,” UNHCR, 25 November 2021.

France and UK engage in blame game over English Channel tragedy,” Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021.

IN BRIEF

By Vaishnavi Iyer and Joeana Cera Matthews

FRANCE

French fishing crews stage “symbolic protests”

French fishing crews staged "symbolic" protests at the Channel tunnel and three ports in northern France against the British government over the ongoing debate over French boat access in the Channel, the fishermen began their protest at the port of Saint-Malo with red flares, before moving on to Calais and the Channel tunnel in the afternoon. In a 90-minute demonstration, six fishing vessels blocked access to Calais port, the UK's principal gateway to Europe, with similar protests taking place in Ouistreham port and access roads to the Channel tunnel. They requested their licences in protest of the UK's inability to provide the French with their full complement of fishing licences, threatening to increase their actions and "display more teeth" if the protests persist. The protestors explained that there is a certain limit to professional patience and that they hoped the UK heeds to their “warning shot". The licence issue is not crucial on the European level; however, it does play a significant role in its long-term relationship with the UK. (Lisa O'Carroll and agencies, “French fishers block three ports and Channel tunnel access road,” The Guardian, 26 November 2021)

ITALY

Israeli supreme court orders the return of Eitan Biran to Italy

The Israeli Supreme Court has ordered that a six-year-old child who was the lone survivor of a cable car tragedy in northern Italy be sent to his relatives by 12 December. Since the death of his parents in the Stresa-Mottarone aerial tramway tragedy in May, Eitan has been at the core of a contentious custody struggle between relatives in Israel and Italy. His maternal grandfather, Shmuel Peleg, allegedly kidnapped him from his paternal aunt, Aya Brian-Nirko. Shortly after the cable car catastrophe, Biran-Nirko was awarded custody of the child. Biran-lawyers Nirko's said the verdict, which affirmed a lower court's decision from October, marked the conclusion of a terrible incident. Meanwhile, the Peleg family has vowed to continue fighting for his return to Israel “in every legal way”. The court declared: “(Peleg) did not provide a valid reason why the return to Italy could cause psychological or physical damage to the child” against Eitan’s parents’ indefinite claims of settling in Italy. (Angela Giuffrida, “Eitan Biran: cable car fall survivor must be returned to Italy, Israeli court rules,” The Guardian, 29 November 2021)

POLAND

Morawiecki urges NATO to “connect dots” 

On 30 November, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that NATO members needed to “connect the dots” and “wake up” to Russian destabilization efforts in the region. He highlighted recent developments that revealed Kremlin and its supporters seeking to alter “the geopolitical system” and “disunite” the EU. He further highlighted a build-up of Russian soldiers near Ukraine, skyrocketing gas costs, and a situation in the Poland-Belarus border as examples. His remarks come ahead of a NATO ministerial meeting. Morawiecki believes Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is the direct culprit of the border situation, but “he has his sponsor, he has his principal” in the Kremlin, alluding to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In his conclusion, he said: “Bad things may happen in Ukraine for instance, or there could be another huge migration problem for the whole of Europe, All the pieces of the puzzle put together present not a very good picture.” (“Poland PM urges 'wake up' to destabilisation by Russia and allies,” BBC, 30 November 2021)

SERBIA

Mining laws trigger protests, clashes with police

On 27 November, Serbia witnessed streets being blocked as protestors gathered to condemn the new mining laws. The new laws provide mineral resources to foreign mining companies like China’s Zijin copper miner and the Anglo-Austrian company Rio Tinto. This implies they receive sovereignty to proceed with projects that may be environmentally polluting to an extent there would be irreversible damage. The protestors, while criticizing President Alexander Vucic, chanted slogans expressing their concern over the latest news. Novi Sad witnessed a similar clash as demonstrations continued. Serbia is one of the most polluted countries in the EU. The recent reforms include polluting projects to proceed without any opposition from activists along with an expropriation law. (Serbia: Protesters block roads over new mining lawsDeutsche Welle, 27 November 2021)

SWEDEN

Andersson re-elected as first female Prime Minister

On 29 November, Magdalena Andersson was re-elected as Sweden’s first female prime minister for the second time this week. She had previously been elected into the position for seven hours before a budget rejection and the exit of Greens from Anderrson’s two-party coalition forced her to resign. She will take formal charge after an audience with Sweden’s figurehead monarch King Carl XVI Gustav while her Cabinet is expected to be named on 30 November. Commenting on Andersson’s appointment, Center Party leader Annie Loof addressed the parliament: “(a female prime minister) means a lot to many girls and women, to see this glass roof shattered. I am proud that (the Center Party) is involved and makes this possible.” Sweden has planned its next general election for 11 September 2022. (Sweden elects Andersson as first female PM for the second time in a weekFrance24, 29 November 2021)


29 November 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #55

Profile of the Digital Markets Act

France slams UK over the migrant issue; Fiala nominated as the Prime Minister of Czech Republic

Photo : Reuters/ Logo Collage


IN FOCUS    

By Padmashree Anandhan

Profile of the Digital Markets Act

On 25 November, at the competitiveness council meeting the European ministers passed two important laws, Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA) to govern the digital competition and content moderation. The law comes into practise after exposure to detrimental exercises and anti-competitive exercises by the global big tech companies.

Who does the DMA target?

The DMA aims for the creation of a level playing field for the EU businesses through regulating the big tech firms. This will establish a competitive and fair digital sector with a long-term agenda to bring innovation, high quality digital products, services and fair prices in the digital sector. The prime aim of this law is to target the large online platforms known as “gatekeepers” who intend to control the platform services from marketplace, app stores and online search engines. This includes Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Apple and Booking.com, and in future Zalando, Alibaba will also be considered.

The eight categories of core platform services the DMA targets are social media network, search engines, video platforms, communication services, intermediation services, cloud computing services, operating systems and advertising networks. Tech companies which fall under these will be subject to the regulation, who the European commission terms as “gatekeepers.” They are named in such a way as they control from the entry point of the companies to the end point of users or consumers. Other conditions for such companies to be categorised as gatekeepers is if they have sustained their company in the EU for three years, have 45 million monthly users, global turnover of USD 7.9 billion or more and held operation in three out of 27 EU member states.

Response of other countries

The French government has expressed confidence in coordinating with the EU nations through finding a common ground. According to France's Digital Secretary Cédric O “There still work to do in terms of refining the names of the platforms, however there is a form of consensus for identifying the real gatekeepers.” Outside the EU, the US government is not supportive as it feels the laws are directed only towards its companies.

Shortfalls

First, the regulations provide the framework on who falls under the category of a gatekeeper and how they will be monitored under the act. But it fails to reserve the right to investigate those firms which do not fall under the gatekeeper group. This creates a void on deciding whether certain firms will be investigated or not for the specific service they offer.

Second, when it comes to monitoring the tech companies or the gatekeepers involving in digital competition and content moderation, the EU lacks in terms of resources in monitoring and inspect the act.

Third, the members of the European Parliament have suggested to form a “European High-Level Group of Digital Regulators to ensure the link between the commission and member states to implement decisions. Delegating the duties and regulations are important for the EU but any law that is connected with digital advancement must also have a rapid-fire committee to instantly modify the rules of law with the changing nature of the tech companies and their operations.

References:

Digital Markets Act: ending unfair practices of big online platforms,” European Parliament, 23 November 2021

Clothilde Goujard And Samuel Stolton “Europe reins in Big Tech: What you need to know,” Politico, 25 November 2021

Council agrees position on new digital rules,” European Council, 25 November 2021

IN BRIEF

By Vaishnavi Iyer 

FRANCE

France slams UK in a diplomatic spat over the migrant issue

In a diplomatic spat with France, following the deaths of 27 persons who drowned while attempting to cross the English Channel, the UK's invitation to the European officials meeting was cancelled. Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, described her absence from the Calais conference as "unfortunate." She claimed that she will have separate urgent consultations with European ministers this week. French President Emmanuel Macron responded fiercely to Boris Jhonson’s request for France to take back refugees. Macron accused the UK prime minister of demonstrating a lack of seriousness in a letter posted on twitter. Johnson said: "This is an issue we have to fix together." The UK government asserted that the letter was genuine and encouraged France to reconsider its invitation.The discussions in Calais, which France convened to address the recent rise in migrant crossings of the English Channel, were attended by Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and the European Commission. (“Channel migrants: France wants 'serious' talks with UK,” BBC, 29 November 2021)

CZECH REPUBLIC

Fiala gets nominated as the Prime Minister of Czech Republic

On 28 November, following Petr Fiala's election victory in October, Czech President Milos Zeman nominated him Prime Minister of the Czech Republic. Milos was isolated from Fiala by plexiglass.Fiala, 57, is the leader of the three-party coalition Together (Civic Democratic Party, Christian Democrats, and TOP 09), which received 27.8% of the vote in early October. Fiala with the support of left-wing parties ousted the ANO movement led by Babis.(“Czech Republic: Petr Fiala named new prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 28 November 2021)

GERMANY

Nuremberg opera publishes open letter to relocate to former Nazi Party rally grounds

Historical societies have been outraged by proposals to temporarily relocate Nuremberg's opera house to the former Nazi Party rally grounds. The historic opera needs a new home because its current one is in desperate need of repair. The repair process for the Opera may take several years to complete.History for All, a non-profit that organizes tours on the grounds, claims that the decision jeopardises education about Nazi Party doctrine and propaganda. In an open letter, the association stated that exposing visitors to the original Nazi structures was a method of promoting “fascist megalomania” as well as its final catastrophe.On December 15, the city council will pass a verdict on the location.There are no other feasible possibilities, according to an open letter from the opera theater's management. (John Silk, “Germany: Plan to use Nazi site for Nuremberg opera slammed,” Deutsche Welle, 28 November 2021)

SWITZERLAND 

Calls to ban COVID-19 pass denied

On 28 November, Switzerland published final results of a referendum conducted to decide on whether the COVID certificate should be continued in the country. It declared 62 percent of voters choosing to keep the pass launched in September. Restriction of entry via the pass pertains to those who are fully inoculated, recovered from the infection or have produced a negative test.  

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Storm Arwen wreaks havoc in the UK

Leaving at least two people dead, and 55,000 without power, Storm Arwen has wreaked havoc in the UK. The Met Office has issued a “red warning” owing to wind gusts of around 100 miles per hour. People have been asked to halt travel and avoid going near the coast. The Met Office has warned against the hazardous icy roads.Northern Powergrid, a regional power utility in the north of England, claimed 55,000 customers in Northumberland, County Durham. Attempts to restore power are taking place in England and Scotland. (“2 dead after Storm Arwen batters northern UK,” Deutsche Welle, 27 November 2021)

 


27 November 2021, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #54 

Ukraine: Russia's military mobilisation raise concerns 

Lukashenko addresses migrants at Poland-Belarus border; Zelenskyy alleges potential coup attempt in Ukraine; France-Italy sign Quirinal treaty

Photo : Brittanica.com


IN FOCUS   
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Ukraine: Russia's military mobilisation raise concerns 
On 23 November, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied rumours that Russia was planning an incursion after NATO accused Moscow of deploying troops near Ukraine's borders. His remarks came a day after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the US's concern about the Russian army's movement and attitude towards Ukraine. He added that the US was aware of the Russian excuse of citing fictitious aggression from Ukraine or another nation to cover Russian plans. Russia, again, denied allegations stating that they were being accused of unprecedented military action in Ukraine after the US withdrew from Afghanistan. "This hysteria is being intentionally whipped up," added Peskov. He demanded NATO to stop arming Ukraine, facilitating a disaster and a more significant problem for Europe. 

On 24 November, US President Joe Biden pledged support for Ukraine, recalling the "deliberate" Stalinist famine that killed millions in Ukraine in the 1930s. He added: "The United States also reaffirms our commitment to the people of Ukraine today and our unwavering support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine." The US has demonstrated support in the Black Sea with navy manoeuvres and the delivery of patrol boats to the Ukrainian navy, enraging Russia. The Kremlin had previously accused the US of conducting nuclear bombing drills too close to its border. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu demanded strengthening the Russian military, citing "increasing activities of NATO countries along Russia's borders."

On 25 November, Ukraine performed more military exercises along its borders, warning of dire repercussions if Russia invaded. After a "special operation" at its border with Belarus, the Ukrainian military conducted tank drills in the eastern Donetsk area. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that predicting what Russia planned was difficult but that Ukraine was doing everything to discourage Russia. He also warned that any aggression from the Russian side would result in an economic and political crisis, adding: "Moscow must clearly understand what political, economic and human losses it will suffer in case of a new phase of aggression. So, it's better not to do it."

With Russian forces threatening Ukraine and the US intelligence fearing an occupation, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal requested NATO to deploy warships in the Black Sea and increase reconnaissance flights around Russia's borders. Shmyhal said Ukraine concurred with the US intelligence assessments of increased Russian presence around Ukraine, in addition to the Belarus-Ukraine border backed by Lukashenko. According to the analysis, Russian President Vladimir Putin may aim to grab a sizable share of Ukrainian territory to "build a land bridge between Russia and Crimea". Russian military efforts are associated with attempts to destabilise the EU and NATO members. The destabilisation efforts are assumed to be aimed at taking advantage of a rise in global natural gas prices by limiting supply, causing concern in some European countries about having enough fuel for the winter and expensive gas bills. 

The Russian threats intend to disrupt Ukraine's measures to enhance its economic, political and security ties with the EU and NATO. The unclear nature of Russia's military mobilisation has impeded NATO and Ukraine's reaction to the crisis. Russia has previously conducted a similar mobilisation effort before Putin's run-up to the annual address. As tensions rose, the Russian military was withdrawn immediately after the address with zero casualties. Shmyhal claimed that Russia was continually employing hybrid methods against Ukraine and the West, such as cyberattacks and disinformation. As a consequence, he believes NATO countries should increase their military training missions in Ukraine.

References

David M. Herszenhorn, "Ukraine PM calls for NATO's help against Russia," POLITICO, 26 November 2021.

Sammy Westfall, "What you need to know about tensions between Ukraine and Russia," The Washington Post, 26 November 2021.

"Ukraine president alleges 'coup plot' in media briefing," Deutsche Welle, 26 November 2021.

"Ukraine holds military drills, warns Russia against invasion," Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021.

Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt, "US Warns Allies of Possible Russian Incursion as Troops Amass Near Ukraine," The New York Times, 19 November 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

FRANCE
France and Italy sign a deal to end years of stranded relations 
The French President Emmanuel Macron and the Italian Prime Minister signed a French-Italian Enhanced Cooperation Treaty towards the rapprochement of diplomatic relations. Both countries' relations got stranded when a governing coalition led by the anti-establishment 5-star movement and far-right League held power in Italy. Draft of the treaty includes European affairs, migration, industry, justice, venture capital in start-ups and innovative businesses, macroeconomics, culture, youth and most important strategic sectors like 5G, AI, the cloud. The deal also intends to develop space launchers Ariane 6 and Vega-c. According to Macron: "It was almost an anomaly not to have this Quirinal treaty before because so much unites us -- our histories, our cultures, our artists." The treaty's success will depend on the outcome of the forthcoming elections, with both countries yet to see the presidential contest. (Sandrine Amiel, "Quirinale treaty: Will a new French-Italian pact shift the balance of power in Europe?Euronews, 26 November 2021; Hannah Roberts And Giorgio Leali, "Italy and France heal their rift with a treaty," Politico, 24 November 2021)

THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Miloš Zeman rehospitalised hours after discharge
On 25 November, the Czech Republic's President Miloš Zeman was discharged after being hospitalised for over 46 days. However, he soon returned to the hospital as he tested positive for COVID-19. The rehospitalisation affected the meeting Zeman was set to have with the prime ministerial candidate and leader of Spolu Petr Fiala; Zeman has to appoint Fiala into power until the post-election limbo continues. The move to postpone the meeting garnered social media condemnation as renewed calls to establish a constitutional provision permitting the parliament to declare the president "unfit to exercise his powers" emerged. The ailing President's foot-dragging has delayed Fiala from taking over. Zeman is expected to be discharged on 27 November and has scheduled to meet Fiala on 28 November. (Robert Tait, "Covid test returns Czech president to hospital hours after discharge," The Guardian, 26 November 2021)

UKRAINE
President Zelenskiyy warns of coup attempt in December
On 26 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed a press conference amidst which he claimed his authorities had discovered a potential coup attempt predicted for 01 December. He stated: "We have challenges not only from the Russian Federation and possible escalation - we have big internal challenges. I received information that a coup d'etat will take place in our country on December 1-2." The intelligence, which includes audio recordings, implicates the involvement of Russia and representatives of media oligarch and owner of football club Shakhtar Donetsk along with business and ex-parliamentarian Rinat Akhmetov. Zelenskyy has stated the possibility of Akhmetov being unaware of the plans and is expected to invite him to listen to the recordings. Despite no reference to Russian involvement, Interfax quoted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commenting on Zelenskyy's statement. He said: "Russia had no plans to take part. And Russia never gets involved in such affairs." The allegations come in the backdrop of a recently-passed law that limits the influence of the wealthy elites in the country's politics. The press conference, which included only select media personnel, was held to mark the mid-way point of Zelenksyy's presidential term. Those journalists who failed to receive invitations to the same were also seen protesting. ("Ukraine president alleges 'coup plot' in media briefing," Deutsche Welle, 26 November 2021; Patrick Wintour, "Ukraine has uncovered Russian-linked coup plot, says president," The Guardian, 26 November 2021)

MIGRATION
Lukashenko visits migrant warehouse at Poland-Belarus border
On 26 November, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with migrants at a warehouse at the Poland-Belarus border. Addressing the media, he backed the efforts of the migrants to cross into the EU. He said: "If anybody wants to go west – that is your right. We will try not to catch you, beat you, and hold you behind barbed wire… We will work with you to achieve your dream." The President's speech was largely appreciated by the migrants. Despite Belarus returning migrants back home via flights, Lukashenko urged Germany to accommodate a few more of them, saying: "Please take these people in. This number is not very big. They want to live in Germany – 2,000 people is not a big problem for Germany." However, Germany has denied the possibility of taking in any more migrants with German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer stating: "... it would mean implementing the very basis of this perfidious strategy." The situation at the border has urged the EU to resort to fresh sanctions which are expected to be implemented in December. ("Belarus' Lukashenko says migrants have 'right' to go west," Deutsche Welle, 26 November 2021)

First victim of the English Channel identified
In the recent English Channel mass drowning, a 24-year Kurdish woman Maryam Nuri Mohamed Amin has been recently identified as the first victim. The victim's family members confirmed the same and stated that the reason for migration is to search for better living standards. As per the reports, she was one of those 27 who drowned in the accident. The other two survivors who were found sinking were rescued, hospitalised and now have been discharged. ("Channel disaster: Kurdish woman is first victim identified," BBC, 27 November 2021)

COVID-19
Switzerland to ease Covid restrictions amidst a high infection rate
On 27 November, the Switzerland government took a reverse route than the rest of Europe through a vote for the complete removal of certain Covid restrictions. The decision comes in an odd time as new variant infections rise from 40 to 50 per cent in a week. Another point to note is that Swiss is one of the countries in Europe with the lowest vaccination rate. It is observed that since the pandemic, the government of Sweden has always been tactical in handling the controls measure towards Covid. If Sweden faces a massive infection rate, one major challenge will be the shortage of essential health professionals, especially nurses. (Imogen Foulkes, "Covid: Swiss vote on ending restrictions while cases surge," BBC, 27 November 2021)


26 November 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #53 

Austria: Protests against fresh COVID-19 restrictions 

The UK and EU to negotiate on the Northern Ireland Protocol; Fire at a Russian coal mine; Boris Johnson outlines five-step action plan to prevent drownings

Photo : REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger


IN FOCUS   
By Joeana Cera Matthews 


Austria: Protests emerge against fresh COVID-19 restrictions 
On 23 November, the World Health Organization (WHO), on assessing Europe's deteriorating pandemic situation, warned: "Cumulative reported deaths are projected to reach over 2.2 million by spring next year, based on current trends." The fourth wave of the pandemic has led to the imposition of tighter restrictions across Europe. This attempt to curb the surge has triggered large-scale protests all over the continent. Austria is one of the most affected countries – both in terms of the increasing cases as well as the violent protests.  

What happened? 
On 22 November, Austria declared its fourth nationwide lockdown – the first full lockdown imposed by an EU country this winter. This move essentially forced 8.9 million Austrians to be home-bound except for reasons such as going to work, exercising, and procuring necessities. Following the declaration, Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said: "It's a problem for the whole society because even those that are vaccinated, if they don't have access to an intensive care unit because they're blocked by those who are not vaccinated and got sick, so then they are affected as well."  

On 20 November, around 40,000 people gathered in central Vienna in a demonstration against the government's decision of a partial lockdown. The protestors held banners with slogans that read "no to vaccination" and "enough is enough". 

What is the background? 
First, the multiple actors. The primary groups protesting the newly imposed restrictions include far-right parties, anti-vaccine and anti-mask groups along with apolitical groups who are vaccine-hesitant. The diverse crowd is united by their common discontent towards the government – especially regarding the management of COVID-19. Despite this being the general actors in play, there exists a demographic divide. The vulnerable groups of the population refrain from participating in protests; this may be attributed to the fact that there is a higher rate of inoculation in these groups compared to the rest of the population.  

Second, the multiple reasons. On 19 November, Austria declared that the COVID-19 vaccinations would be a legal requirement from February 2022. This only strengthens the argument for those who advocate the slogan of 'my body, my choice' since forcing people into inoculation violates an individual's freedom and are increasingly termed as a "restriction of human rights". The government has also been called a 'coronavirus dictatorship' since its coercion tactic to increase the declining immunity is seen as a desperate measure. The economic factor is another concern. Protesters primarily consist of those small businessmen whose daily lives are being affected by the restrictions. Their lives are at a standstill due to the haphazardly implemented lockdowns. Some others protest since the restrictive measures disrupt their ability of moving freely, inevitably frustrating them.  

Third, Austria's peculiar protests. Austria has seen COVID-19 protests earlier as well. However, unlike the rest of Europe, the protests here are strengthened by the presence of the Freedom Party (FPÖ). Being one among the largest opposition parties in the country, the backing of the FPÖ makes it difficult for the government to convince the people of the necessity of its measures. Schallenberg even commented on the same: "It's irresponsible, especially if you consider that a large percentage of the representatives of this party are vaccinated, but still spread fake news about deworming remedies... This is a major difference between us and other European countries." 

What does this mean? 
First, the loss of trust. People largely feel betrayed by the government since the measures adopted till date seem to have been futile. Some of the protesters expressed their discontent with the latest measures, stating that they had lost trust in the government's ability to curb the pandemic. They opine that the government themselves are unaware of what to do. 

Second, the helpless government. The vaccine take-up in the country is 65 percent, which is less than the EU average. Despite the widespread protests, there is only so much the government can do to quell the protests. The measures are repetitive and uncomfortable; however, the only way to curb the larger health crisis is by resorting to such radical measures.  

References
Matthew Karnitschnig, "Austrian chancellor hits out at far-right anti-vaxxers," POLITICO, 24 November 2021. 

Oliver Pieper, "Europe′s fight against the coronavirus | Europe | News and current affairs from around the continent," Deutsche Welle, 24 November 2021. 

"Covid: WHO says it is very worried about Europe surge," BBC, 21 November 2021.  

"Austria to go into full lockdown as Covid surges," BBC, 20 November 2021. 

Covid: Dutch partial Covid lockdown sparks protests,” BBC, 13 November 2021. 


IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Padmashree Anandhan

REGIONAL
The foreign officials of the UK and EU to negotiate on the Northern Ireland Protocol
The Brexit minister and EU counterpart are scheduled to meet to negotiate on the Northern Ireland Protocol as disagreements arise between both. During the Brexit deal, all parties agreed to safeguard the 1998 Northern Ireland peace deal. The deal meant keeping the land border open without cameras or border posts to check the flow of goods. It was easier when the UK was part of the EU, but after Brexit, an arrangement had to be made to check certain goods coming from Northern Ireland. This arrangement was known as the Northern Ireland Protocol. Under this, Northern Ireland agreed to follow the EU standards for the products exported to the UK to avoid border checks. The goods that are entering from the UK will be checked instead. The UK and EU agreed to put this issue off in 2019 to prevent the rift, but the check inside Northern Ireland has aggravated, creating an Irish Sea Border. The serious check has caused difficulties for the UK and has proposed imposing Article 16 as a solution. Article 16 is a provision which will bar parts of the protocol from being unilaterally suspended if problems arise. (John Campbell, "Brexit: UK and EU to meet for more Northern Ireland Protocol talks," BBC, 26 November 2021; Tom Edgington and Chris Morris, "Brexit: What's the Northern Ireland Protocol?," BBC, 08 November 2021)

European commission drafts a law for users to identify paid political ads
On 25 November, the European Commission announced its plans to mandate the online platforms to label their advertising as political or not. Big tech companies like Google and Facebook, and other social media giants will disclose the parties funding the ads and their methods of targeting the voters. European Commission Vice-President Vera Jourova said that "People must know why they are seeing an ad, who paid for it, how much, and what micro-targeting criteria were used. Digital advertising for political purposes is becoming an unchecked race of dirty and opaque methods." This rule is as a way to ensure the online users are aware of the source of the advertisement and it is also to ban the techniques used by the political parties to use sensitive personal user data on social media. One exception will be to the posts done by the politicians on their personal accounts. This rule is set to be finalized by 2023, which is a year before the European Parliament elections. ("EU unveils plans to make political ads more transparent," Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM
Authorities requested to take serious action to safeguard migrants in the English Channel
On 24 November, authorities tried to identify the bodies of at least 27 individuals who drowned. The drowning victims appeared to be mostly Iraqi Kurds, with 17 males, seven women (one of whom was pregnant), and three children among them. Two survivors are being treated in a Calais hospital. Consequently, UK ministers were warned to take urgent action and "stop playing politics with people's lives." Boris Johnson outlined a five-step action plan to prevent drownings which was shared with French president Emmanuel Macron. They include - "Joint patrols to prevent boats from leaving French beaches, technology such as sensors and radar, reciprocal maritime patrols and airborne surveillance, improved intelligence-sharing to arrest and prosecute people smugglers, and a bilateral returns agreement with France alongside talks to establish a UK-EU returns agreement are among them." Humanitarian organizations agreed that more deaths were probable, and requested the UK government to create safe and legal channels for migration along with strengthening the current settlement plan. In addition, a criminal investigation has been launched. (Jamie Grierson, Jon Henley, and Dan Sabbagh, "UK ministers urged to 'stop playing politics' over Channel crossings," The Guardian, 25 November 2021)

SLOVAKIA
Slovakia issues apology to Roma women
The Slovakian government has apologized for the mistreatment and forceful sterilization of thousands of Roma women, a practice that continued until 2004 despite the country's ratification of Roman rights. For decades, thousands of Roma women in Slovakia were forcefully sterilized, which lasted until 2004. The administration has now issued an official apology. The ruling alliance criticized years of maltreatment of ethnic minorities. Issuing a formal apology, the Slovakian government criticized the maltreatment of the Roma ethnic minorities that began under the communist administration in 1966. Dunja Mijatovic, the Council of Europe's human rights commissioner, praised the "apology to victims of forced sterilisation as a first crucial step" in a statement on Twitter. The public apology came just a day before the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women. (Alex Berry, "Slovakia issues apology for forced sterilizations of Roma women," Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021)

GERMANY
Challenges ahead for the new German coalition
Recently the trio coalition published its political road map of a 178-page document called the "Dare to Make More Progress." There were many positive highlights in the document keeping climate change, bonus to health workers, digitalization, and reducing the voting age of youth from 18 to 16. The document also helped in identifying the challenges ahead. Two most important challenges will be handling the Covid situation and the Migrant crisis. According to Olaf Scholz "We should make vaccination mandatory in places that care for particularly vulnerable groups." Apart from that, the frozen pension contributions and new debt moratorium to be on hold. ("What are the key issues for Germany's new government?," Deutsche Welle, 25 November, 2021)

RUSSIA
More than 52 people succumb to fire at Russian coal mine
Following an apparent fire at a Russian coal mine, at least 52 people have died underground. Members of a rescue squad who died while searching for the missing miners are included in the total. According to initial reports, the catastrophe looked to be caused by coal dust catching fire and filling the mine with smoke through the ventilation system. According to early data, the catastrophe was caused by a methane explosion, according to Deputy Prosecutor General Dmitry Demeshin. The tragedy resulted in the injuries of 49 individuals. Two hundred thirty-nine miners from the Listvyazhnaya coal mine in southern Siberia have been transported to the surface, according to the Emergencies Ministry. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said President Vladimir Putin had offered his condolences to the relatives of those slain and hoped that those still missing may be rescued.In response to the occurrence, authorities proclaimed three days of mourning. The trapped miners have been assumed dead considering the perishable self-rescue system with oxygen and the absence of communication with the miners for more than 12 hours after the accident.. ("Russia: Over 50 people die in Siberian mine," Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021)

POLAND 
Poland revises schemes to assist households against inflation 
On 25 November, a scheme worth up to GBP 2.14 billion was unveiled as cash transfers to households. In 2022, these payments will be income-based and split into two installments. The initiative is to facilitate financial security in dealing with the rising inflation. Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki, Poland's Prime Minister said: "The Polish government is acting to... ease, buffer against this inflation growth." Petrol taxes will also be reduced to EU standards. The scheme is to be operating from 20 December, for five months. In the months of January and March, the value-added tax (VAT) on gasoline will be reduced from 23 percent to 8 percent. Moreover, VAT on electricity will be reduced from 23 percent to 5 percent. The reductions follow revisions to Poland's tax system announced earlier this year, which the country's ruling Law and Justice Party dubbed the "Polish order" (PiS). According to research released by the Polish government in September, nearly 9 million Polish citizens will stop paying income tax in 2022, and 70 percent of retirees will pay no tax. ("Poland to cut fuel and energy taxes in anti-inflation shield," Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021)


25 November 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #52

Belgium: Protests against fresh COVID-19 restrictions

English Channel witnesses' deadliest-ever' migrant drowning; Germany forms government; Swedish PM resigns in less than 12 hours of being in office

Photo : REUTERS/Johanna Geron


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Belgium: Protests over new COVID-19 restrictions

In the news 
On 18 November, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Europe to be the epicentre of the epidemic, the only region where COVID-19 mortality is on the rise. In many Central and Eastern European countries, including Ukraine, Russia, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, the autumn rush of diseases is overloading hospitals. As a result, face mask regulations have been increased in Belgium, particularly in locations like restaurants wherein COVID passes are now compulsory, and most citizens are expected to work from home "four days a week until mid-December." Measures have been initiated to make immunizations mandatory for health care employees. All healthcare employees in Belgium are required to be vaccinated as of 01 January, or fear being laid off if they decline.

What happened?
On 21 November, thousands of people marched through central Brussels to denounce the Belgian government's COVID-19 regulations, which were introduced in response to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. According to police, 35,000 people gathered in Brussels to protest the COVID Safe Pass app, which shows the immunization and recovery status required to enter bars and restaurants. Protestors wished to express their displeasure with the COVID limitations, which were strengthened last week in response to an increase in the number of illnesses. Hundreds of people began throwing rocks at police officers, shattering cars, and setting garbage cans on fire. Police used tear gas and water cannons in retaliation to restore the situation. The conflicts resulted in the injuries of three police officers and one protester. Furthermore, 42 protestors were detained and two were taken into custody in the violent rampage that followed the demonstration.

Demography of protestors
The far-right, extremists spouting anti-vaccine conspiracies and antisemitism, as well as apolitical people resisting vaccination, including families, were among those who attended the march, according to local media. Protesters gathered around a large banner reading "Together for Freedom" and advanced to the European Union offices, shouting "Freedom! Freedom! Freedom!" while also chanting the anti-fascist hymn "Bella Ciao." The signs in the group ranged from far-right emblems to rainbow flags of the LGBTQ community. 

Response from politicians 
After a nonviolent demonstration against coronavirus regulations became deadly in Brussels, Belgian politicians strongly condemned the violence in the protests. Belgian Prime minister Alexander De Croo denounced mandatory COVID vaccinations as a "false good idea", claiming that persuasion would be more difficult in practice and that it would be "more effective to persuade people". Belgium's home affairs minister Annelies Verlinden said: "A mature democracy respects the opinion of a minority but does not accept that a few abuse their protest vote by force. Vaccinated or not: it is important that we continue to follow the measures." The violence has rekindled the debate in Belgium about mandatory vaccination, an issue that has split the government coalition's seven parties. The Socialist deputy prime minister and economy minister Pierre-Yves Dermagne, supporting the need to open the debate, stated: "We must have this debate because we know that we are going to live with this virus for months and even years. We cannot limit ourselves to short-term measures." The government is already receiving criticism for requiring healthcare workers to get the COVID vaccine.

In perspective
Alexander De Croo's remarks were directly aimed at the violent minority that disrupted demonstrations in Brussels. However, there is a broader sense of dissatisfaction among Western European political leaders: when the anticipated autumn surge materialises, a large minority of citizens are exacerbating the issue by declining to be vaccinated. Dealing with this segment of the population, which is significantly more likely to require medical treatment following infection, has become a significant policy conundrum for governments attempting to balance civil liberties along with preserving societal needs. For any liberal democracy, this is dangerous territory.

It is vital to emphasize the need for social separation and mask-wearing for all residents. While libertarian reasons cannot be permitted to override the necessity for social solidarity in the face of a pandemic, statutory discrimination against the unvaccinated must be accompanied by more robust efforts to explain, convince, the hesitant crowd. This is especially true in parts of the population where public trust is at an all-time low and civic disengagement is already rampant. If permitted to remain for any length of time, a two-tier COVID society will become a boon to far-right groups looking for fertile ground. Austria's Freedom Party is exploiting anti-vaccination protests as a form of rehabilitation after being tarnished by a corruption scandal that saw its popularity drop. In Germany, a contentious debate is raging over whether making vaccination compulsory would infringe the constitutionally protected right to "bodily integrity." It is critical to find a more cooperative path in these lines. 

Understanding the protestors
Furthermore, there is no consistent trend in the protestors' demographic affiliation. They were made up of both youth and adults, and a few even brandished LGBTQ flags. There was also no specific restraint in the sphere of religion. Vaccination sceptics in Europe have some characteristics with anti-vaxxers in the US, but they also have a distinct profile. Far-right fringe organizations, soccer fanatics, libertarians from both sides of the political spectrum, and citizens fearful of vaccines due to a barrage of misinformation are among them.

Anti-vaxxers in the US and Europe typically share a mistrust of the government, stating different reasons. According to Alix Kroeger, Europe's vaccine hesitant crowd tends to cluster in the southeastern parts, in countries that were once divided by the Iron Curtain and also where citizens shared a common distrust of communist government and authorities even when it came to health issues. In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine is the second vaccine to be declared mandatory, following the polio vaccine. The government has stringent laws against polio anti-vaxxers, but the number of polio anti-vaxxers in Belgium is equally high. As a result, the COVID-19 vaccination is not the only vaccine that has been rejected by the public. While anti-vaxxers resort to violence, the same skepticism may be useful in measuring the success of herd immunity. Furthermore, it may be beneficial to examine the demographics of these protestors, since some may have already got one shot or may just desire proof of the vaccine's effectiveness. In the event that individuals protest on religious grounds, the government may consider steps to address religious exemptions to the law. To keep the peace in Belgium's society and keep infection rates low, the Belgian government may have to step carefully in order to develop trust among vaccine sceptics.

References

"The Guardian view on Europe's Covid protests: treat with care," The Guardian, 23 November 2021.

Jennifer Rankin , "Violent anti-lockdown protesters are idiots, says Dutch PM," The Guardian, 22 November 2021.

"Covid: Huge protests across Europe over new restrictions," BBC, 22 November 2021.

Raf Casert, "Tens of thousands protest Belgium's tighter COVID-19 rules," AP News, 22 November 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

MIGRATION
More migrant boats arrive despite drownings in the English Channel
On 24 November, a fishing boat set off an alarm where 27 men and several women were dead in the English Channel. So far, 47,000 have attempted to cross the channel to enter the UK, but it was this time where the boats have sunk. The reason for the accident is unknown; as per the rescue authorities, the boat seemed to be in a fragile condition. Five people responsible for the incident have been arrested. The most concerning issue is that the crossing has not stopped despite the happening, and more boats seem to be arriving. As per the leaders of the UK and France, both have agreed to cooperate and take steps to prevent worsening the humanitarian situation. The UK prime minister said that "he hoped the French would now find a renewed offer of joint patrols along the French Channel coast acceptable." While Mr. Macron has said "he was expecting the British to cooperate fully, and that they abstain from instrumentalizing a tragic situation for political purposes." (Dulcie Lee, "Channel deaths: More boats arrive after 27 people drown", BBC, 25 November 2021)

GERMANY
Olaf Scholz to head the three-party coalition replacing Angela Merkel
The coalition of the Social Democrat Party, the Greens, and business-friendly Free Democrats will be headed by Olaf Scholz. In the recent conference, the three-party coalition announced its significant plans. Starting with climate protection which forms the core deal of the coalition. It aims to phase out usage of coal by 2030 and wants its 80 percent of its electricity to be renewable energy. Part of its agenda it is planning to legalise the sale of cannabis and the distribution of a drug in licensed premises. Mr Scholz highlighted the importance of Germany's relations with France and the US. With Europe facing its worst in the spread of Covid infection, the party has promised to invest EUR one billion as bonus to its health workers and plans to mandate vaccines for the essential workers. In terms of taking a stance on Russia and China, it is believed that the coalition will take a tougher stance. (Katya Adler "Germany's Team Scholz sweeps away 16 years of Merkel," BBC, 25 November 2021)

POLAND
Constitutional Tribunal rules ECHR's inability to review the appointment of judges
On 24 November, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal declared the incompatibility of the European Convention on Human Rights with the country's constitution. According to the ruling, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has no jurisdiction over reviewing and assessing the legitimacy of judicial appointments to Polish courts. The Tribunal's head Julia Przylebska stated: "Article 6 of the Convention… as far as it includes the Constitutional Tribunal in its definition of a court, is not compatible." Polish opposition parties, however, condemned the ruling by blaming the government for facilitating Poland's removal from the convention. Expressing her concern over the ruling, the Council of Europe's Secretary-General Marija Pejcinovic Buric stated: "Today's judgment from the Polish Constitutional Tribunal is unprecedented and raises serious concerns. We will carefully assess the judgment's reasoning and its effects." ("Poland court says European rights pact 'incompatible' with constitution," Deutsche Welle, 25 November 2021)

SWEDEN
Magdalena Andersson resigns as Swedish Prime Minister within seven hours
On 24 November, Sweden's first female Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson resigned just hours after her appointment. The resignation came after her Social Democrat party's junior coalition partner, the Green Party chose to quit the government. The series of events were triggered following the parliament's rejection of the budget proposed by the coalition government; it was voted down in favour of spending plans suggested by the opposition parties. Commenting on the resignation, Andersson said: "For me, it is about respect, but I also do not want to lead a government where there may be grounds to question its legitimacy… There is a constitutional practice that a coalition government should resign when one party quits." Expressing her hope to return to office, Andersson said: "I am ready to be prime minister in a single-party, Social Democrat government." The Green Party head Marta Stenevi, however, expressed her regret over the administrative crisis, and stated: "We have sought to be in government to deliver green policies, it is not our job to administer a budget negotiated by the Sweden Democrats." ("Sweden's first female prime minister resigns hours after appointment," Deutsche Welle, 24 November 2021; "Sweden's first female prime minister resigns after less than 12 hours," The Guardian, 24 November 2021; Charlie Duxbury and Ali Walker, "Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson resigns hours after taking job," POLITICO, 24 November 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Apple and Amazon fined for breaching the competition regulation
The tech giants Apple and Amazon have been charged EUR 200 million by the Italy's competition watchdog for deliberately breaching the competition regulations. The Italian competition authority has stated that the companies have violated both the EU rules and affected the pricing. It said "It ordered the two companies to end the restrictions and give resellers access in a non-discriminatory manner." In response both the companies have denied the charges and have planned to appeal. The spokesperson of Amazon has said that "We reject the suggestion that Amazon benefits by excluding sellers from our store, since our business model relies on their success." ("Italy fines Apple and Amazon over Beats headphones," BBC, 24 November 2021)

SPORTS
Football: Versailles court declares Karim Benzema guilty of blackmail
On 24 November, a Versailles court found French international footballer and Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema guilty of 'complicity in attempted blackmail'. The star footballer has received a one-year suspended jail sentence along with a fine of EUR 75,000. Implicated in a sex tape extortion scandal, Benzema is alleged to have blackmailed his French teammate Mathieu Valbuena. Benzema, who has reiterated his innocence, is set to appeal against the verdict, which his lawyer terms as "unfair and based on no proof". The trial for the scandal, which occurred in June 2015, took place in October. According to the judge: "(Benzema) personally got involved, with insistence, to try to convince Mathieu Valbuena to meet his trusted man." Last month, however, the French football federation stated that Benzema would not be restricted from playing even if found guilty. (Angelique Chrisafis, "French footballer Karim Benzema guilty in sex tape extortion scandal," The Guardian, 24 November 2021; "Karim Benzema: French footballer guilty in sex tape blackmail case," BBC, 24 November 2021)


24 November 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #51

The Netherlands: Three factors in COVID protests

ECJ ruling forbids Hungary from punishing judges for seeking guidance from the EU Court; Sweden's first female Prime Minister; Common Agricultural Policy adopted by the EU

Photo : REUTERS/Eva Plevier


IN FOCUS

Protests in the Netherlands: Three factors in perspective

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) reported 153,957 positive coronavirus tests, where 69 percent belonged to the unvaccinated group. In recent weeks the total number of new cases has doubled. To address the threatening Covid situation, the government imposed partial lockdown measures for three weeks for shops, sport, and catering. It has mandated the green pass, social distancing, and vaccination drives. The rise of infections in the Netherlands comes as a surprise as 84 percent of the population has been vaccinated and still sees a surge in new covid cases.

Following the imposition of stringent Covid restrictions, protestors gathered in Rotterdam, the Hague, and Amsterdam. They threw rocks and fireworks on police in denial of the levied restrictions. It has also issued an emergency order in the eastern state of Enschede due to continued protests. On 22 November, Netherlands police shot four people who sustained life-threatening injuries and arrested 28 people. 

Why protests?
First, the partial lockdown. The closing of restaurants, pubs, and theatres early in the evening does not only impact the social life of the young Netherlanders but has a larger impact on the small businesses in terms of revenue. Many youngsters have recorded their concerns of feeling mentally stressed due to the absence of real interactions and on doing everything from home. Whereas for the micro and small business entrepreneurs, going to lockdown conditions means supply chain challenge and loss of revenue.

Second, distrust of the people in government. The rise in the number of protestors or anti-vaxxers is due to the poor handling of the Covid crisis by the government. On 19 November, the health minister said that the Netherlands was "very far away" from code black in hospitals. Code Black is a situation where the hospitals run out of beds to admit patients. But as far as the doctors, they have remarked that they are nearing the situation already. In another case, two covid patients have been transferred to German hospitals which have better intensive care facilities than the Netherlands. These two examples indicate the inefficiency of the government in treating its citizens.

Third, anger amongst the studying youth. Apart from the worry of delinking their social life's, In the course of the pandemic, many youths started studying. As per the statistics of the Netherlands, the pass percentage was very high as the final exams were cancelled. With a gap of one year, many opted to study increasing joint student debt. The debt increased to EUR 24.4 billion at the start of 2021 which was seven per cent more than the previous year. The issue is, students who had richer parents were able to sustain with their financial support. But students whose parents were not able to afford their education were a concerning factor

What's ahead?
Recently the government, in a move to ease down the tension in the protests, has announced to reopen its borders from 30 April 2022 to allow foreigners. Under this New Zealanders residing in other countries will be allowed to enter from 13 February. Both the category people will be allowed to enter under fulfilling the "fully vaccinated" condition, post which have to isolate for seven days and later will be allowed to enter the country. The Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins stated that "the safest approach to ensure risk is carefully managed."

References

"Rotterdam police clash with rioters as Covid protest turns violent," BBC, 20 November 2021

"Dutch hospitals preparing for "code black" scenario," NL Times, 22 November 2021

"Student debts increasing due to coronavirus," NL Times, 24 November 2021

"New Zealand to reopen to vaccinated visitors," BBC, 24 November 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

HUNGARY
ECJ forbids disciplinary proceedings against judges seeking its guidance
On 23 November, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled a verdict that allowed for the bloc's national judges to solicit the guidance of the ECJ judges, in the endeavour of which they should not be stopped. This follows condemnation received by the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party aiding the deterioration of judicial independence. The case which was referred to the ECJ due to the lack of translators and interpreters at the Pest Central District Court had a criminal proceeding happening against a Swedish national being tried in Hungary. The Hungarian Supreme Court deemed the appeal as unlawful and initiated disciplinary proceedings against the judge. The Luxembourg-based chamber maintained: "EU law precludes disciplinary proceedings from being brought against a national judge on the ground that he or she has made a reference for a preliminary ruling to the Court of Justice… The principle of the primacy of EU law requires the lower court to disregard the decision of the supreme court of the member state concerned." (Richard Connor, "ECJ rules Hungary can't punish judge for seeking EU court guidance," Deutsche Welle, 23 November 2021)

SWEDEN
Magdalena Andersson becomes first female Swedish Prime Minister, only to resign shortly
On 24 November, following a parliamentary vote, Magdalena Andersson (54) was appointed as the Swedish Prime Minister – making her the first female to have held the post. She won the vote in a tight competition by a margin of a single vote. Andersson has earlier served as finance minister and is presently the leader of the Social Democrats. She is backed by the Social Democrats' coalition partner, the Greens. Prior to the vote, she had efficiently managed to bring the Left Party to her side by striking a deal with them. Other opposition parties preferred to let her win by abstaining from voting over opposing her. The outgoing Prime Minister Stefan Lofven had resigned on 10 November after he lost a parliamentary vote of confidence. Lofven, a Social Democrat too, had served seven years in office. ("Magdalena Andersson voted in as Sweden's first female prime minister," Deutsche Welle, 24 November 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM
Cyberflashing to be made illegal 
Nadine Dorries, Culture secretary stated that "cyber-flashing" could potentially be included "within the scope" of the Online Safety Bill. Cyber-flashing occurs within public spaces with perpetrators using Wifi and Bluetooth networks to send obscene pictures. Online platforms violating the privacy and security of customers will face criminal sanctions. The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson in recommendation by the Law Society demanded a specific offence be created for cyber flashing. Cyber-flashing is already a criminal offence in Scotland but is not yet illegal in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. ("Cyber-flashing likely to become a criminal offence - Dorries," BBC, 24 November 2021)

Whistleblower exposes abuse of detainees at the Brook House
BBC Panorama documentary revealed the abuse and ill-treatment of detainees in the Brook House removal centre. The centre houses foreign nationals having rejected asylum claims and immigrants who have served prison sentences. The capacity of the centre is upto 500 men with the security of a Category B prison. Callum Tulley, a former Brook House officer conducted a secret filming exposing the widespread harsh abuse, drug use and bullying by officers. The mental health of the detainees is a major concern among the inquiry to be conducted by the Counsel. Out of the 109 hours, four hours have been classified as "key evidence". Fourteen G4S members resigned or were dismissed upon the release of the documentary. The G4S contract system was unique in its nature of the Home Office providing for GBP1 million worth of "penalty" for detainee escapes and suicides. Short-staffing was common with footage showing : "bravado, mockery, macho behaviour and banter, which may have normalised disdain for and even violence towards detained persons". The second phase of inquiry is to be conducted next year with a conclusion by spring. However, the immigration system is not under the ambit of the inquiry. (Tom Symonds, "Brook House detention centre whistleblower 'abuse' inquiry begins," BBC, 24 November 2021)

MP denied carrying baby in the Parliament
After receiving an email from the private secretary to the chairman of the Ways and Means committee, Labour's Stella Creasy criticized the rules on "behaviour and courtesies". She tweeted about the Parliament's unacceptance of her "well behaved, 3-month old, sleeping baby". Addressing the larger issue of maternity cover and the lack of similar decorum rules for "anyone who isn't a man of a certain age from a certain background". Contrary to the rules issued for Creasy, MP Alex Davies-Jones reported that she was granted permission to breastfeed her child in the chamber. Laing termed the rules set for the speaker and deputy speakers at the House of Commons and Westminster Hall, to be "bad for our democracy". She requested a review of the rulebook and encouraged other mothers to participate in politics through her This Mum Votes campaign. She stated that mothers in the mother of all parliament had taken a backseat. She encouraged the parliament to facilitate more "mums at the table" stating: "I've had a baby, I haven't given up my brain or capacity to do things." (George Bowden, "No babies allowed in Commons, MP Stella Creasy told," BBC, 24 November 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
EU lawmakers approve reformed Common Agricultural Policy
EU lawmakers overlooked calls to vote down the Common Agricultural Policy(CAP). The bloc adopted the reformed Policy, which will provide GBP 270 million in aid directly to European farmers. The deal will be taken into effect from 1 January 2023 and will continue till 2027. The deal, covering a third of the EU budget, is expected to meet the climate sustainability goals and rural development goals set by the EU. However, the reforms have been met with backlash from the green parties. The overall sentiment from the green parties state that the reform is neither in alignment with climate goals and would neither benefit the farmers. The deal as proposed by most scientists would not be meeting the EU's Green Deal goals and would further fuel the climate crisis. The deal is set to benefit only bigger farming consortiums. The CAP reform is set to have global consequences around the farming sector, food security trade, and biodiversity. Most MEPs applauded the reforms which are set to reward the farmers for their performance. Commissioner Wojciechowski stated: "The new CAP strikes the right balance between flexibility for the Member States and assurance on the CAP expenditure". Swedish climate civist, Greta Thunberg has called for the EU to vote CAP down. (Priyanka Shankar, "EU lawmakers pass Common Agricultural Policy deal — but green critics sound alarm," Deutsche Welle, 23 November 2021)

MIGRATION
Poland-Belarus border standoff: EU set to impose coordinated sanctions on Belarus
On 23 November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a session of the European Parliament said that the EU stood in solidarity with its members of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Denying the existence of a 'migrant crisis', she reiterated: "This is not a migration crisis. This is the attempt of an authoritarian regime to try to destabilize its democratic neighbours." The latest plans include "blacklist(ing) all means and modes of transport involved in trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants." A new package of sanctions with the US, Canada, and the UK are being coordinated by the EU. Urging the necessity of the same, she commented: "We agreed that to counter this behaviour, it is important to coordinate our sanctions and to work with countries of origin and the airlines that are transporting migrants to Minsk." ("Belarus: EU to target firms trafficking migrants with 'blacklist'," Deutsche Welle, 23 November 2021)


23 November 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #50

Russia: US imposes further sanctions on a Russian shell company. Four reasons why

US Concerns over remark of Bulgarian President; Kremlin Spokesperson demands NATO to stop arming Ukraine; Šefčovič calls out Lord Frost on "political posturing"

Photo : FilePhoto: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Russia: US imposes further sanctions on a Russian shell company. Four reasons why

On 22 November, the Department of State pipeline-imposed sanctions on two additional vessels and a Russian-linked entity called Transadria Ltd in opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The sanctions will be levied under Protecting Europe's Energy Security Act of 2019 (PEESA) on the Russian shell company, and its vessel, the Marlin, will be classified as blocked property. According to the Secretary of State Antony Blinken, "today's report is in line with the United States continuing opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the US Government's continued compliance with PEESA. With today's action, the Administration has now sanctioned 8 persons and identified 17 of their vessels as blocked property pursuant to PEESA in connection with Nord Stream 2."

Four Reasons behind the growing US opposition

First, the Ukraine issue. The Ukraine pipeline, which was used the most in transporting the natural gas from Russia to Germany and central Europe, will no longer be needed. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will directly transfer the gas to Germany and larger Europe. Therefore, Ukraine will face huge revenue loss. While the US made a deal to help Ukraine mitigate the losses, Germany has also agreed to invest in Ukraine to move towards cleaner energy. Ukraine has also been promised by Germany for a gas transit agreement with Moscow. Although the Moscow deal will be in place till 2024, it is uncertain as tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine in annexing Crimea.

Second, the Freedom Gas. The US plans to create a new route for its gas supplies is barred now due to Europe's engagement with Russia. If it has to make a difference, it must sanction the Swiss-based company rather than block its vessels. This is because the construction of the pipeline has been completed, and instead of charging its vessels, it will be better to sanction the company. In that way, Russia can be kept under check and can prevent the energy industry of the EU from getting exploited. 

Third, reducing the Russian involvement in the region. As part of its building back its transatlantic relations, the US has been closely taking steps towards the EU in smoothening of the relations. With Russia partnering for a huge gas pipeline means a power threat to the US. It will not wish to lose its influence in the region or allow any other to cause trouble in exercising its relations.

Fourth, the Baltic States and Romania. Another primary reason is that many individual states within the EU, such as Poland, Slovakia, and other eastern European states, fear the growing dependency and the impact Russian can cause if it decides to manipulate its power over gas supplies. This might be a huge threat to the energy sector of Europe. Hence the US also stands in line with those states.

What is the take of Germany?

Like many European governments, Germany also sees this pipeline as a valid solution to its energy crisis. As the winter nears, it fears power outages and surges in gas prices. Hence, ensuring the supply of gas from Russia will maintain its cost and get through the crisis. Germany is wary of Russia's play in the sudden cutting off of oil supplies or President Putin's warning to cut off gas supplies. It has developed a backup deal with the US to take action on Russia if it used energy to weaponize its relations with Ukraine or any states of the EU

 References:

"US imposes further sanctions in connection with Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline," Reuters, 23 November 2021

"Imposition of Further Sanctions in Connection with Nord Stream 2," US Department of State, 22 November 2021.

"Nord Stream 2: US announces more sanctions over pipeline," Deutsche Welle, 22 November 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

BULGARIA
Bulgarian President's remarks over Crimea spark US concern
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev described Crimea as "currently Russian" during a presidential debate last week. Radev also urged Brussels to reopen lines of contact with Moscow and stated that he does not favor sanctions upon Moscow since he believes they are ineffective. Ukraine condemned his views on Crimea, and his domestic opponents retaliated. The US embassy expressed "deep concern" at the statement made by Bulgaria's President, stating that Crimea was "currently Russian." The embassy declared in a release that the EU and NATO were clear about Crimea belonging to Ukraine. At the Crimea Platform summit in August, several allies underlined that Crimea remains an integral part of Ukraine and will not recognize Russian efforts to legitimate its unlawful invasion and seizure of Crimea as stated by the US embassy. ("US' deeply concerned' over Bulgarian President's Crimea remarks," Deutsche Welle, 22 November 2021)

DENMARK
Six Inuit file case against the government demanding reparations for lost childhood
Six Inuit kidnapped from their Greenlandic homes and transferred to Denmark 70 years ago are suing the government for reimbursement for their lost childhood. Denmark abducted 22 children from its former colony in 1951, assuring a better standard of living and the opportunity to return to Greenland as a new Danish-educated elite. In a letter to Denmark's prime minister, six of the 22 survivors, now in their 70s, seek GBP 28,200 in reparations. Even though they had families, they were placed in orphanages when they returned to Greenland. Many of them had entirely lost contact with their relatives. Their lawyer, Mads Pramming, added: "They lost their families, their language, their culture, and their sense of belonging." According to Pramming, it was a breach of their "right to a private life, a family life" under the European Convention on Human Rights. He went on to say that he would give the prime minister's office two weeks to react before filing a lawsuit. ("Six Inuit snatched by Denmark 70 years ago demand compensation," The Guardian, 22 November 2021)

FRANCE
Hotel driver accused of facilitating Tutsi genocide undergoes trial
The trial of Claude Muhayimana, a former hotel driver accused of driving Hutu fighters to locations where they massacred Tutsis during the 1994 Rwandan genocide, commences in Paris. Muhayimana stands accused of "complicity in genocide" and "crimes against humanity" for offering "aid and support" to the Hutus. It's the third similar trial in France of Rwanda genocide perpetrators, but the first of a "normal" civilian with no evident ties to the government or military. He stands accused of agreeing to drive the Hutu police and Interahamwe, around Lake Kivu. The case is complex, considering he hid Tutsis at "risk of death" and facilitated their escape. His wife was also a Tutsi. The case comes after two postponements,10 years of proceedings. Fifty witnesses are expected to be present for the trial. Collective of Civil Parties for trial's, Alexandre Kiabski said: "Muhayimana will be the first ordinary citizen to face trial. Before the genocide, Muhayimana was respectable all around." Muhayimana's attorneys held that he had little to no choice in obeying the Hutu authorities. The final verdict is expected to be around 17 December. If convicted, Muhayimana could face life in prison. ("France puts driver accused of genocide complicity in Rwanda on trial," Deutsche Welle, 22 November 2021)

RUSSIA
Russia calls US concern over Ukraine impolite and "not logical"
Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, denied rumours that Russia was planning an incursion after NATO and Russia hurled allegations of deploying troops near Ukraine's borders. His remarks came a day after US Ambassador Anthony Blinken stated that the US had serious worries about Russia's army movements and attitude toward Ukraine. He added that the US was aware of the Russian excuse of citing fictitious aggression from Ukraine or another nation as a cover for Russian plans. Russia has denied allegations stating that the US is accusing Russia of unprecedented military action in Ukraine, after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. "This hysteria is being intentionally whipped up," added Peskov. He demanded NATO to stop arming Ukraine, facilitating a disaster and a larger problem for Europe. ("Russia slams Western' hysteria' over Ukraine," Deutsche Welle,  21 November 2021)

REGIONAL
Tsikhanouskaya upset over Merkel-Lukashenko talks
On 22 November, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya decried acting German Chancellor Angela Merkel holding telephonic conversations with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in an effort to deescalate the border tensions. She condemned the same on the grounds that any form of diplomatic dialogue between the EU leaders and him would imply providing him with the legitimacy he aims to attain. Explaining that she understood Merkel's intentions were pure, she said: "From the side of the Belarusian people, it looked very strange." Merkel, as a response to the criticism, held a conversation with Tsikhanouskaya over the phone where the Chancellor reiterated Germany's support for the upliftment of democratic processes in Belarus. Lukashenko's rule has been considered illegitimate since the country's 2020 presidential elections that were denounced as rigged. ("Belarus opposition leader criticizes Merkel's 'strange' calls with Lukashenko," Deutsche Welle, 22 November 2021)

BREXIT
Šefčovič calls out Lord Frost on "political posturing"
On 21 November, the European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič while talking on the BBC's 'The Andrew Marr Show' blamed the UK's Brexit Minister Lord David Frost of "political posturing". On 21 November, Lord Frost had written an article in The Mail about the necessity of "urgent" measures from the EU for resolving the Northern Ireland Protocol issue. The solution suggested by Lord Frost was that "goods which both we and the EU agree aren't going to leave NI should not be treated as if they were moving from one country to another because they are not and goods going into Ireland should be checked in the Irish Sea to protect the EU's single market and avoid a hard border." Šefčovič, however, responded: "Sometimes I feel in our meetings I am the only one pushing for urgent solutions… If we would still be in the mode of political posturing and bringing new problems to the table, I don't think we will solve the most pressing issues for Northern Ireland and so we may be acting alone to ensure the Northern Ireland people have the medicines they need." ("Šefčovič: EU accuses Lord Frost of 'political posturing'," BBC, 21 November 2021)


22 November 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #49

Belarus, Migrants and the EU sanctions on airlines

Bulgarian exit polls point to Radev victory; French women march demanding end to sexual violence; Fresh COVID-19 restrictions lead to surge in protests

Photo :


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Migrants from Middle-east will no longer fly into Belarus as the EU sanctions airlines
The EU announced sanctions on airlines that were involved in the Poland-Belarus border crisis. After this announcement various airlines, aviation authorities and later the Lebanese Transport Ministry have taken a decision to allow only Belarusians and foreign citizens with permanent resident permits to fly into Belarus. 

What happened?
Since July, more than 600 planes from various middle eastern states have landed in Minsk. It is observed that most of the flights were operated by Belavia, a Belarusian state airline. Upon the rising concerns of the migrant crisis, the European Commission came up with a plan to levy strict sanctions on airlines that board migrants into the EU. The commission carried out a round of negotiations with all the airlines including Fly Dubai, Turkish Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Air Arabiya, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, MEA, Oman Air, Iraqi Airways, and Egypt Air. Later the Vice President of the European Commission Margaritis Schinas and European transport commissioner Adina Velean had close communication with international aviation authorities such as IAT or the Arab Air Carriers.

The negotiations led to a major number of airlines accepting the condition to halt the sale of one-way tickets to migrants traveling from the Middle East to Belarus or to cancel all the flights to Belarus. Turkish Airlines recently announced to stop flying passengers from Iraq, Syria, or Yemen to Belarus. 

A Syrian airline called Cham Wings was suspected to have directly flown people from Syria to Minsk under “expedited express entry visas” by the Belarusian embassy. This airline has also called in for the cancellation of flights.

According to the experts, the reason behind such transfer of people into Minsk by airlines was due to the covid driven financial difficulties and secondly, they simply neglected to get its business running.

Sanctions by the EU
In the round of negotiations, the EU threatened the airlines stating the overflight and landing rights will be withdrawn from those who indulge in transporting migrants. For the airlines it is not only about its landing rights but it will risk losing the entire Europe aviation market. Another threat is the air transport agreements, these agreements regulate the way air traffic is organised between countries. In case of any breach of this agreement, it will result in the EU terminating the deal and will have a bad impact on the airlines of all countries.

So far, the EU has closed its airspace and cancelled the air transport agreement with Belarus. It also implies that the EU aircrafts will not cross the Belarusian airspace on long-distance flights. This means the regime in Minsk will not be able to collect the overflight fee. Apart from this the EU has also imposed sanctions on tourism companies and others responsible for helping the refugees to cross borders of the EU.

With the regressive steps of cutting down the airlines, barring Minsk from collecting overflight fee and sanction on tourism companies, EU’s plan to bring the Belarus instigated migrant crisis under control seems to be taking shape.

References:

Thomas Latschan, “Belarus crisis: Airlines threatened with sanctions,” Deutche welle, 19 November 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

BULGARIA
Elections 2021: Radev’s victory expected
On 21 November. Alpha Research and Gallup International released the exit polls of the elections; according to the same, President Rumen Radev is predicted to stay in power for another term. His victory is expected to be with a whole two-thirds of the vote. Radev has joined hands with the newly founded “We Continue the Change” party which won the recently conducted general elections. Radev was reported as saying: “Let’s not give the past a chance to undermine our future. Let us decide our destiny and our future ourselves, and not give others a chance to decide instead of us.” A staunch critic of the former Prime Minister Boko Borissov, Radev had managed to attain 49 per cent of votes in the first round of the presidential elections while his opponent Anastas Gerdzhikov won a meagre 23 per cent in the same. (“Bulgaria exit polls: President Radev set for election victory,” Deutsche Welle, 21 November 2021)

FRANCE
Protests witness calls for stringent measures on ending sexual violence
On 20 November, thousands of women took to French streets protesting against the widespread sexual violence and called on the government to bring an end to the same. The protests follow recent discussions relating to the topic that point out the death of a woman every three days at the hands of either their current or former partner. Protesters demanded President Emmanuel Macron’s government to increase the expenditure on preventing violence against women from EUR 360 million to EUR one billion. However, the government’s moves were defended by Equality Minister Elisabeth Moreno who pointed out how the efficient the French government was in dealing with the issue of sexual violence. The protest came as a part of the week of action in line with the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women which falls on 25 November. (“France: Tens of thousands protest violence against women,” Deutsche Welle, 20 November 2021)

ITALY
Volcanic activity calls for island evacuation in Italy
Due to heightened volcanic activity and sulphurous emissions in the vicinity, the mayor of the island of Vulcano in Sicily's Aeolian archipelago has directed the evacuation of roughly 150 people and prohibited tourists. After a series of substantial changes in volcanic indicators, Italy's civil protection agency issued an amber alert for the island, roughly 15 miles north of Sicily. In October, various citizens reported sickness in their pets due to volcanic activity. According to the Italian National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), heavy gases have increased, reducing the amount of oxygen in the air and causing respiratory problems that can be fatal. Local officials also established a "red zone" where the gas attributable to volcanic activity is more prevalent, with carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeding the usual, and limited residents' mobility from their houses between 11 pm and 6 am. The island will be closed to visitors for a month. (Lorenzo Tondo, “Italian island of Vulcano orders partial evacuation after increased activity,” The Guardian, 21 November 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Pope urges the younger generation to endure in climate safety efforts
According to The Associated Press, Pope Francis called on the younger generation to continue their action to preserve the environment. He made the remarks during Mass in St. Peter's Basilica, commemorating World Youth Day in dioceses throughout the world, and thanking those who fought to assure "respect for the dignity of the vulnerable and spread the spirit of solidarity and sharing." He also mentioned that many young people have voiced their concerns about environmental pollution, adding that even in a society where people are more concerned with "immediate gain" and are more likely to destroy "great ideas", the younger generation has not forgotten "the ability to dream." Lately, he has begun to include social justice and environmental challenges as a part of his daily speeches. In August 2023, he also plans to meet with young people from across the world during the Catholic church's jamboree in Lisbon, Portugal. He was also heard requesting the youth to, “Be free and authentic, be the critical conscience of society.” (Olafimihan Oshin, “Pope calls on young people to protect environment,” The Hill, 21 November 2021)

COVID-19
Renewed restrictions lead to protests across Europe 
On 20 November, several European countries witnessed protests as a result of the new set of COVID-19 restrictions that have been imposed due to the surge in infections. The Netherlands witnessed its third consecutive day of demonstrations with protesters inflicting damage upon infrastructure. 26 arrests have been confirmed in Rotterdam, the second-largest Dutch city. Brussels also saw large-scale demonstrations attended by around 35,000 people; however, most of the demonstrators had disbanded before things took a violent turn. The city saw 42 being detained and two arrested. In France’s overseas island of Guadeloupe, property vandalization led to the arrests of 38 people after week-long protests to withdraw newly imposed restrictions. (“COVID: Protests against curbs rock Netherlands, Belgium,” Deutsche Welle, 22 November 2021)

MIGRATION
Priti Patel accused of mishandling the migrant crisis
After a record number of individuals arrived on British beaches in boats last week, the Labour Party has accused Priti Patel of "comprehensively failing" to limit the growing population crossing the Channel. It comes after claims that Boris Johnson is "exasperated" by his government's failure to slow the tide of arrivals, with concerns that no feasible proposal to lower the number of people arriving available. Shadow home secretary, Nick Thomas-Symonds, stated Patel’s incompetence on the matter to be hazardous. The government confronts a major problem, according to Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council. He says the government must keep its promise to manage the UK's borders and recognise the matter’s complexity. Moreover, the issue needs an informed realistic approach and not empty rhetoric. Sajid Javid, the health secretary backed Patel stating the new Nationality and Borders bill is set to make drastic changes to the migration issue. (Rajeev Syal, “Priti Patel accused of ‘comprehensively failing’ to curb small boat crossings,” The Guardian, 21 November 2021)


20 November 2021, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #48

UK and France sign agreement to prevent migration

Rotterdam witnesses violent protests; Belarusian President accepts on allowing migrants to enter Poland; Six Armenian soldiers killed in border clashes

Photo : GoogleMap


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

UK and France sign agreement to prevent migration
On 14 November, around 1,185 migrants arrived in the UK, crossing the English Channel in boats and kayaks. The arrival marked the highest single-day crossing record. The Home Office termed the new number crossings "unacceptable." Whitehall sources accused France of "losing control of the situation". 

On 15 November, France retaliated against British comments on migration, stating: "we don't have any lessons to take from the British." He stated that, despite the British government's desire to blame the French, the French government is effectively managing the migrant issue in Calais and Dunkirk. On 16 November, France cleared the Dunkirk camps, clearing 1500 migrants and 35 people smugglers. The French police said that: "663 people had already been transported on 23 buses to a shelter." The actions have been described by French officials as an attempt to "shelter" refugees over the winter months.

France is expected to take the EU presidency next year. Politically, the issue of migrants would be important for Macron since far-right conservative parties would prefer to debate the issue during elections. Given Eric Zemmour's rising popularity, the issue of managing migration is crucial for French politics. With around 22,000 migrant crossings in the English Channel this year, Macron states: "We have the British, who oscillate between partnership and provocation. We need to further strengthen collaboration". He mentioned that the system must be addressed efficiently in case of illegal migrations.

The British response has been blatantly shifting the blame for migrant mismanagement to France. Home Secretary of Britain, Priti Patel made aggressive remarks at the French incompetence of controlling the migrants at the border. She said: "I think it's fair to say they are overwhelmed," and that EU open borders are to blame for the "mass migration crisis" in the UK. She added the country's possible decline in finance allocated to maintain and provide for migrants. The French government assured Patel of employing enhanced technology at the northern beaches to make migration unviable. 

Gerald Darmanin, France's interior minister, highlighted a change in data privacy and protection laws that would enable the government to monitor borders with drones and other surveillance systems. The law is also expected to facilitate a driving plate recognition system to detect unloading boats for migrants. 

Issues at large
First the number and nature of daily crossings. Over this year, nearly 23,000 people have reached the UK via France. Around 98 percent of migrants reaching the UK apply for asylum.The UK government has introduced a plan for immigration to dissolve criminal gangs that enable cross-channel migration. It has firmly maintained that migration journeys would soon be made unviable. Third, a humanitarian perspective. As the countries push back against the migrants, they remain stranded between borders facing European winters, sexual abuse, and health hazards. The head of the Immigration Service Union in the UK mentioned that migrants slept on concrete floors, and more than 490 migrants shared two portable toilets for 24 hours. The UK regularly employs patrol dogs and carbon dioxide systems to detect the breathing of migrants in hiding. Most practices followed to restrict migrations are harsh and discriminatory.

In perspective
First, a European pattern. The EU has clarified for years that it will not allow migrants or refugees to cross its borders. This allows countries on the perimeter the ability to utilize refugees as "pawns". The EU has made concessions to Libya, Sudan, and Turkey to prevent refugees from entering Europe. This often entails grave human rights violations against refugees in order to deter them. The system broke this year. Second, prevention of border entry. International law recognizes the right to seek asylum and the provision of an asylum option. The EU has made the journey more inaccessible, curtailing rescue and search operations and humanitarian aid.Third, the difference with Belarus. Refugee numbers have lowered by two-thirds since 2015. However, the global crisis still remains. The EU has merely succeeded in transferring the crisis to poorer and more autocratic countries on its perimeter, thereby absolving itself of legal responsibility and the burden of having to confront the significant human cost of its policies. The crisis has been exploited by dictators and right-wing parties that have made use of the situation to promote their anti-establishment and anti-immigration ideologies.

References
Joseph Lee, "Number of migrants crossing Channel to UK tops 1,000 in new daily record," BBC, 12 November 2021

Rajeev Syal, Kim Willsher and Jedidajah Otte, "UK and France reach agreement to 'prevent 100% of Channel crossings'," The Guardian, 15 November 2021

"France clears Dunkirk migrant camp amid UK tensions," BBC, 17 November 2021

Peter Walker and Kim Willsher, "No 10 downplays migrant row after Macron laments British 'provocation'," The Guardian, 19 November 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

BELARUS
The BBC interview: Belarusian President accepts on allowing migrants to enter Poland
On 19 November, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told BBC in an exclusive interview that it was "absolutely possible" for his forces to have helped the migrants enter Poland but denied inviting them into Belarus. He stated in the interview "I told them I'm not going to detain migrants on the border, hold them at the border, and if they keep coming from now on I still won't stop them, because they're not coming to my country, they're going to yours." In the past few months, many migrants from the middle east have been entering into the EU via Belarus. The president has been condemned by the EU, the US and NATO for allowing the migrants crossing. Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya who was forcefully sent out of Belarus after victory has accused the BBC. She said "the BBC interview provided Mr Lukashenko with "a platform for lies and propaganda." (Steve Rosenberg, "Belarus's Lukashenko tells BBC: We may have helped migrants into EU," BBC, 20 November 2021)

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN
Six Armenian soldiers killed in border clashes
On 19 November, the Armenian Defense Ministry announced the death of six Armenian soldiers after border clashes escalated with Azerbaijan. The deaths were reported to have occurred on 16 November. The ministry added that the Azerbaijani soldiers had opened fire at the borders which was retaliated with a return fire from the Armenians. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, have accused Armenia of having bombed their villages. The escalation of tensions follow a ceasefire supervised by Russia that was reached on 16 November. Azerbaijan had also declared the death of seven of its soldiers on the same day. The EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano expressed his concern over the border situation, saying: "(he was) deeply concerned over the recent violence along the Armenia-Azerbaijani border, which has regrettably led to loss of life." ("Armenia reports 6 soldiers killed in clashes with Azerbaijan," Deutsche Welle, 19 November 2021)

GEORGIA 
Saakashvili ends hunger strike
On 20 November, jailed ex-President ended his seven-week hunger strike. This follows a deterioration in his health. He had been prisoned on charges of abusing power. The hunger strike had been initiated as a retaliatory measure on his apparently 'political' arrest on 01 October. After the declaration of ending his 50-day hunger strike, Saakashvili's personal doctor Nokoloz Kipshidze said: "Saakashvili formally called off his hunger strike right after he was transferred to the Gori military hospital." ("Georgia: Jailed ex-President Saakashvili ends 7-week hunger strike," Deutsche Welle, 20 November 2021)

THE NETHERLANDS
Rotterdam: Lockdown protesters turn violent
On 19 November, a demonstration against the new restrictions imposed by the government on access to indoor venues was witnessed in Rotterdam. The demonstration took a violent turn with protesters setting fire to vehicles and engaging with the police force. According to the police, seven have been wounded while 12 were arrested due to the clash. They said: "We fired warning shots and there were also direct shots fired because the situation was life-threatening." Police personnels have also been reported as being wounded in the clash. Local political party Leefbar Rotterdam responded to the incident via Twitter, tweeting: "Rotterdam is a city where you can disagree with things that happen but violence is never, never, the solution." ("Rotterdam shaken by riots over planned coronavirus curbs," Deutsche Welle, 19 November 2021)

RUSSIA
Putin President warns the West on presence of NATO's arms in Ukraine
On 19 November, the White House and Russia connected on a call to discuss de-escalating the tensions that had risen in Ukraine. The US expressed its concerns over Russian military activities and military buildup towards Ukraine. Before the call Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the West "not to cross its red lines too lightly." He later said it was a response to the "provocative actions" taken by NATO as it has been deploying its arms inside Ukraine as a protective measure. ("White House calls on Russia to de-escalate tensions with Ukraine," Reuters, 19 November 2021)


19 November 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #47

Austria: Anti-lockdown protests 

Former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz stripped off his immunity; Lithuania: Taiwan’s de facto embassy opens in Vilnius; Britain to send 150 Royal Army to Poland borders

Photo : REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Austria: Anti-lockdown protests 
On 19 November, Austria became the first country in western Europe to declare a full lockdown upon surge in the new Covid-19 cases. Along with the full lockdown measures, it has mandated that the entire Austrian population will begin vaccination from 01 February 2022. The decisions have triggered anti-trust protests against the state by the people as the declarations made affect individual freedoms. More than tens of thousands of people gathered in Vienna carrying the signboards with slogans saying “no to vaccination,” “enough is enough,” and “down with the fascist dictatorship.” The reason behind the unrest is due to three reasons. One, scepticism amongst the Austrians to take vaccines, and second the encouragement of the same cause by the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) a third-biggest force in Parliament. Third, failure of leaders to take precaution before declaring stricter restrictions.

The demonstrations gained traction as many people, families and far-right groups joined, increasing to 40,000. Protestors used drums, rang cowbells as a way to convey their disappointment on the declared covid restrictions. Later, the protests escalated when skirmishes broke between the police officers and protestors. According to one of the police officers, “At least five people were arrested, and several others were written up for violations involving failure to wear masks, or for displaying stars like those the Nazis forced Jews to wear during the Holocaust.”

Earlier this week, Austria began with strict restrictions for its unvaccinated population, but declaring the same for the entire population has spread dissent. The opposition party’s (FPO) leader Herbert Kickl stated that “As of today, Austria is a dictatorship.” Recent surveys have reported that vaccination is turning to be the “most divisive” issue in the society and fear that more restrictions will lead to more gap. 

Protests in other parts of Europe
A series of protests has been witnessed all across Europe. Starting with Netherlands,

The government declared a three-week partial lockdown. It ruled that the bars and restaurants be closed by 20:00 hours and a ban on hosting huge crowds in the sport events. The protests took a violent turn in Rottersdam. Officials declared emergency order in the city and many have been said to be arrested and injured including police officers from the protest clashes.

In Brussels, protests were held especially by those who oppose the Covid passes as it restrains them from entering social spaces such as restaurants and bars. They have been dealt with by the police with tear gas and water cannon.

The covid restrictions in Belgium are, rule of wearing face masks has been tightened, employees must work from home for four days in a week till mid of December and vaccinations will be made mandatory for health workers. 

What does this mean?
First, with people barring the restrictions and marching against vaccination, breaking the chain of the spread of covid infections will be a task for both police department and government.

Second, the protests give scope for more people who are in dilemma of getting vaccinated or not, might join the group of anti-vaxxers seeing the mass number of people. Therefore, it creates a conflict situation in the region.

Third, the reputation of the present government will take a toll as it will face the criticism for not handling the covid situation with the right measures.

References

Covid: Huge protests across Europe over new restrictions,” BBC, 21 November 2021

Tens of thousands protest in Vienna against Austria’s Covid restrictions,” The Guardian, 20 November 2021

Thousands in Austria Protest Virus Lockdown and Vaccine Mandate,” The New York Times, 20 November 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

AUSTRIA
Former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz stripped off his immunity
On 18 November, the immunity provided to former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was lifted by the parliament after his center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) backed the decision. The removal of Kurz’s immunity provides easy investigation into his role in the corruption scandal that he has been implicated in. This follows Kurz himself requesting to remove the immunity provided to him in order to facilitate the investigations into the scandal. The former Chancellor has been condemned for misusing government money in an effort to popularize his political image. (“Austria: Sebastian Kurz's immunity lifted for corruption probe,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2021)

BELARUS 
Poland detains 100 migrants 
Flouting EU laws, Poland has detained around 100 migrants. The Polish defence ministry accused Belarus of facilitating border crossings by the migrants, triggering a confrontation at the barbed wire fences. Belarusian Spetsnaz, or special troops, conducted surveillance, according to the Polish government, and may have harmed the barbed wire fencing. The Polish ministry said: “Then the Belarusians forced the migrants to throw stones at Polish soldiers to distract them. The attempt to cross the border took place several hundred metres away”. Some migrants attempting to enter the EU have had their circumstances improved, with some being housed in a warehouse in Belarus. Several others, on the other hand, are still out in the cold, facing incredibly difficult conditions. (Kieran Burke, “Belarus border crisis: Poland detains 100 migrants,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM
Using phones while driving banned in the UK
Drivers will be prohibited from using a smartphone to click photos or play games starting in 2022, with violators facing a GBP 200 fine and six points on their licence. It would be easier to prosecute violators, according to the transportation secretary. The law was enacted to ensure that road users are protected. The Highway Code will be modified to reflect the new laws, as well as to state clearly to drivers that using a hand-held device at signals or in highway waits is prohibited. Drivers will be able to use hands-free gadgets such as a sat-nav or mobile phone while driving if they are fastened in a cradle.The new regulations will not apply to drivers who make a contactless payment using their device while immobile. The exception will apply only when payment is made with a card machine, such as when utilising a drive-through restaurant or a motorway toll barrier. Following a public consultation, it was discovered that 81 percent of respondents supported efforts to enhance the law. (“Drivers to be banned from using hand-held devices,” BBC, 19 November 2021)

Britain to send 150 Royal Army to Poland borders
According to the defence secretary, about 150 British army Royal Engineers would be dispatched to help strengthen Poland's border to Belarus. The Royal Army is a component of the Army geared for building or constructing walls or roads or laying in infrastructure. The soldiers would not be combat forces but rather those with "the ability to build roads, checkpoints, and observation posts.". During his visit Ben Wallace, Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom paid a visit to British troops previously stationed in Poland as per NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence. He also struck a deal to supply air defence weapons to Poland. He was concerned about human rights violations at the border, particularly against women and children. (Jonathan Beale and Doug Faulkner, “Belarus migrant crisis: British army engineers to help at Polish border,” BBC, 19 November 2021)

MIGRATION
Greece: Search and rescue activists on trial for charges of human trafficking, espionage, money laundering
On 18 November, proceedings began against 24 humanitarian activists who were involved in aiding migrants reach Greece during the time period of 2016 to 2018. The Mytilene Misdemeanor Court on the Greek island of Lesbos has undertaken the case. The activists belong to a non-profit search and rescue team named the Emergency Response Centre International (ERCI). In response to the beginning of the trial, associate children's rights director at Human Rights Watch (HRW) Bill van Esveld said: “The Greek authorities’ misuse of the criminal justice system to harass these humanitarian rescuers seems designed to deter future rescue efforts, which will only put lives at risk.” In an effort to maintain fair and legal proceedings, observers have been called on by HRW from foreign countries.They further added that “legitimate fundraising activity” was being mislabelled as “money laundering”. The sentence for the activist, if they are found guilty, would be 25 years. (“Greece: Activists who helped migrants go on trial,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2021; “Greece: NGO workers could face prison for helping migrants,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
Lithuania: Taiwan’s de facto embassy opens in Vilnius
On 18 November, overriding China’s threat to withdraw its ambassador from Lithuania, Vilnius saw Taiwan’s first embassy in Europe under its own name. In the US and other European countries, Taiwan is identified by Taipei to avoid referring to the island territory claimed by China. One among the 15 countries having diplomatic ties with Taiwan, Lithuania has also agreed to opening its own representative office in Taiwan. However, the dates for the same are yet to be confirmed. The new Taiwanese office in Vilnius represents a scope for cooperation via semiconductor industries and other technologically-intensive industries. (“Taiwan opens representative office in Lithuania,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2021)


18 November 2021, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #46

Bulgaria: Despite three elections in 2021, more instability in store? 

Switzerland allows same-sex marriage; Lukashenko agrees for border talks with the EU; Merkel calls for technological cooperation with China

Photo :


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews


Bulgaria: More instability, despite the third Parliamentary elections in 2021
On 10 September, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev announced that the country would be holding its parliamentary elections on 14 November. The presidential elections were also scheduled for the same date. 

On 14 November, preliminary polls declared the 'We Continue the Change' (PP) party winning 26.3 percent of the votes while the ruling GERB party followed with 21.4 percent. 

One year, three elections 
This is Bulgaria's third general election in 2021. The previous two elections were held in April and July. These elections resulted in fragmented parliaments that could not prove a majority or build a successful coalition. The opinion polls for the November elections, as well, suggested an inconclusive verdict that had possibilities of swinging both ways. The centre-right GERB party was disestablished via a rule-of-law crisis in April. This began the electoral processes in Bulgaria. 

Three Issues

First, the emergence of a new face. The November elections saw the emergence of a new centrist anti-graft party called the We Continue the Change (PP). A party recently founded by two Harvard graduates Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev garnered quick support owing to its tough stance on corruption, and promises to bring about transparency along with reforms in the key sectors of the country's economy.

Second, the conflict of interests. There also exists quite a lot of internal differences among the political parties in Bulgaria. Protests were seen after allegations of corruption were made in opposition to former Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov's government. The existence of a mafia more powerful than the law is and the government is also a matter of concern. 

Third, crucial elections. The latest elections were crucial given the worsening COVID-19 situation in the country and the waning economy. Being the least-vaccinated country in the EU, this election is key to retrieving Bulgaria's diminishing stability. It would also aid Bulgaria in figuring out a feasible solution for its COVID-19 problem. The surging energy prices also concern the Bulgarians.

The Road Ahead for Bulgaria

First, not yet a success. Petkov's win via the initial count implies that he will be provided with a mandate to form the new government. There is no surety of creating a successful coalition, especially given the fact that the partial results pointed towards an increase in the fragmentation. 

Second, Petkov's hopes. Petkov hopes for a new Bulgaria. Addressing the media, he said: "Bulgaria is starting out on a new road and we will succeed in developing the full potential of this country." A successful result to the coalition talks is the only confirmation of a win. Interviewing with the Dnevnik newspaper, Petkov and Vassilev declared they had been nominated by the party for the posts of prime minister and finance minister respectively. The Democratic Bulgaria party, the There is Such a People, and the Socialists are presently being considered as potential coalition partners for the PP party. 

References:  

"Bulgaria's new anti-graft party holds narrow lead in parliamentary vote," France24, 15 November 2021. 

Christian Oliver, "Kiril Petkov is the big winner of the night in Bulgarian election," POLITICO, 14 November 2021. 

Christian Oliver, "How Bulgaria became the EU's mafia state," POLITICO, 09 September 2021. 

Tsvetelia Tsolova, "New centrist party wins Bulgarian election, could end months of deadlock," Reuters, 15 November 2021.


 

IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Padmashree Anandhan

ESTONIA
Estonia Government to carry out military exercise in the Polish-Belarusian border
On 17 November, the government in Tallinn said that new fences will be constructed across the border it shares with Russia. Till now the 1,700 guards were positioned as part of military exercise to install barricades due to migrant movement in the Polish-Belarusian border. According to the Estonian government "the barriers will be erected in the border areas that have previously been used by organized crime to facilitate illegal migration." The military exercise in Estonia is said to take place till 25 November and has been modelled to assess the rapid response of the national defense chain of command. (Thibault Spirlet, "Estonia to build new barriers on Russian border," Politico, 17 November 2021)

SWITZERLAND
Federal Council of Switzerland passes amendment allowing same-sex couples to get married
On 17 November, the Federal Council of Switzerland has announced that same-sex couples can get married as of 1 July 2022. In the voting process, two-thirds of the country were in favour of the nationwide referendum. Upon which the Justice and Police Minister Karin Keller-Sutter went forward to put the vote in practise. The announcement means the same-sex couples can now get married and those who has registered their partnership can convert it to marriage. All they need is to submit a joint declaration to the registrar for conversion. The co-president of the Marriage for All campaign said that "We have been fighting for marriage equality for 30 years and the referendum result was a historic moment." (Thibault Spirlet, "Switzerland to implement same-sex marriage in July 2022," Politico, 17 November 2021)

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN
Armenian and Azerbaijani troops open fire over the agreed ceasefire
On 16 November, Armenian and Azerbaijani troops exchanged skirmishes breaking the Russian brokered ceasefire. The clash took place again rekindling the war against Nagorno-Karabakh region. After the intervention of the Russian Defense Minister, the fight came to a stop. The Armenia's Prime Minister has accused Azerbaijan for targeting its statehood, sovereignty, and Independence. Armenia has now appealed to its ally Russia to protect its territorial integrity. The Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed on the same to "Continue Contracts." The French Foreign Ministry released a statement on the incident expressing "deep concern and called on all parties to respect the agreements that were reached in November 2020." ("Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire holds one day after deadly border clashes," France 24, 17 November 2021)

ITALY
Israel halts the return of a six-year old cable car victim
The repatriation of a six-year-old boy who survived a cable car tragedy in Italy to his relatives in Italy has been put on hold until Israel's supreme court determines whether to appeal the decision by family members in Israel. When a cable vehicle drove into a mountain in northern Italy in May, Eitan Biran's parents and younger sibling were among 14 lives lost. The court will determine whether or not to hear the appeal in coming weeks, and a hold on Biran's return to Italy has been issued. Last month, an Israeli court ordered Eitan to be sent back to Italy, calling it his "place of normal residence" and requested the grandfather, Shmuel Peleg, to pay 20,000 USD as attorney fees. Eitan's paternal relatives claim he was taken without their permission, and have launched a court lawsuit in Italy for his return. International arrest order for Peleg was issued by an Italian judge earlier this month. ("Israeli court halts return to Italy of boy who survived cable car crash," The Guardian, 17 November 2021)

GERMANY
Merkel stresses on Chinese technological cooperation
Anglea Merkel, the German chancellor, has stated that Europe should not break off research and development collaboration with China. Intellectual property protection, on the other hand, remains a significant concern. Despite concerns about Chinese surveillance and technology theft at German universities, Merkel stated that China remained a significant contributor to research and business. Merkel noted that when it comes to protecting essential infrastructure, standards should stay high, and she referenced Germany's new IT security law. The IT Security Act 2.0 offers the government more authority over device manufacturers for next-generation telecommunications networks, such as Huawei of China.Admitting that Germany was naive concerning its partnerships over the years with China. She said : "We can learn a lot from each other. Total decoupling wouldn't be right in my view, it would be damaging for us". She also noted that the US and China were superior in innovation technology and that Europe must continue working towards larger domains of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. ("Germany's Merkel warns against Europe' decoupling' from China," Deutsche Welle, 17 November 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
Germany's bottle disposing system turns climate friendly
As per the mechanism, a wholesaler transports empty bottles into the treatment facility. They are then sorted with other bottles of the same shape before being delivered to a producer who utilizes that particular type of bottle. The bottles are then cleaned, filled, and returned to a store shelf for repurchase. According to the German Environment Agency (UBA), a glass bottle can be refilled up to 50 times without losing quality. It gives a re-use rate of 25 for reusable plastic bottles.Single-use bottles, on the other hand, are taken to a recycling center, where they're shredded and transformed into pellets, which are then used to make new plastic bottles, textiles, and other plastic products like detergent containers.

According to Gerhard Kotschik, a packaging specialist with UBA, the deposit system for both reusable and single-use bottles saves raw materials, energy, and CO2 emissions, primarily by reducing the fossil fuels used to manufacture new bottles. The system currently uses 70 per cent less virgin PET material. Similar deposit schemes have been pushed by environmental groups for tetra packs and other packaging materials. The climate friendly option is soon set to be used in Spain. ( Irene Banos Ruiz and Jeannette Cwienk, "How does Germany's bottle deposit scheme work?," Deutsche Welle, 17 November 2021)

BELARUS
Lukashenko agrees to negotiate the border issues with the EU
On 17 November, According to Belarus' state-run Belta news agency, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus agreed that the problem on the Belarus-Poland border must be resolved through negotiation between EU and Belarusian authorities. Merkel's spokesperson, Steffen Seibert, said that Merkel emphasised the importance of the UN and EU organising humanitarian relief and repatriation facilities to assist the impacted people. The G7 foreign ministers also issued a joint statement on Thursday, urging Belarus to promptly stop the migration situation. ("Belarus: Lukashenko agrees to EU talks on ending migrant standoff," Deutsche Welle, 17 November 2021)

Decathlon stop selling canoes in northern France to prevent migrant crossings
Recently the French police raided a migrant camp that held 1,000 people. Due to which close to 1,185 migrants crossed over the English Channel using small boats and canoes. The crossings have triggered tensions between London and Paris. Upon this the sports equipment retailer has stopped the sale of Canoes to the north of France as it believes it might be used by the migrants in the crossings to reach England. The French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin has said that "Britain should stop using us as a punch-ball in their domestic politics." ("Decathlon stops selling canoes in northern France to prevent migrant crossings," France 24, 17 November 2021)


16 November 2021, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #44

The European Union, Google, and the antitrust bill

The US rebukes Russia over anti-satellite missile test; EEA reports 300,000 fatalities in 2019 due to air pollution in the EU; Poland-Belarus border standoff

Photo :


IN FOCUS 
By Harini Madhusudanan

The European Union, Google, and the antitrust bill
On 10 November, the Alphabet unit of Google lost an appeal against the European Union. The company lost 2.42 billion euro to the European antitrust bill after the General Court upheld a 2017 order. The court ordered that the European Commission was right in fining Google for the breach, and Alphabet-unit claims that their ads have always helped people find the products quickly and easily and that they made a few changes back in 2017 to comply with the European Commission’s decision. This ruling is being seen as a major victory for Europe’s Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, in the first of three rulings that are at the core of the EU push to regulate big tech. 

The 2017 antitrust bill
In 2017, Google was accused of favoring its own comparison shopping services. While Google favored its own services on the general results pages with favorable display and positioning, Google was said to relegate the results of competing services based on ranking algorithms. The court claims that the company departed from competition on merits, and hence placed a fine on the Company. As the dominant player in the search engine market, Google is said to have abused its power by promoting its own services while also demoting the competitors. The statement read, “By decision of 27 June 2017, the Commission found that Google had abused its dominant position on the market for online general search services in 13 countries in the European Economic Area, by favoring its own comparison shopping service, a specialized search service, over competing for comparison shopping services.”

To a large extent, competitive traffic is the major contributor to the services offered by Comparison Shopping. Up to 90 per cent of Google’s revenue is generated from advertisements and this revenue generation depends on the traffic. More traffic causes more clicks, and this traffic is used to attract potential retailers to list with their services. In order to benefit from comparison shopping, in 2008, Google began to push its shopping services to be implemented in European Markets. Though market dominance is not illegal under the EU antitrust rules, Google was accused of exploiting its dominant position in internet search markets in all European Economic Area (EEA). However, Google could still appeal the new verdict and take the case to the EU’s highest court, the EU Court of Justice  

The counterargument by Google 
Google has denied the claims by the antitrust bill. The company made a statement and claimed that “its services had helped the region's digital economy grow”. The company accused other market competitors of pushing the case against the dominant search engine, which included overviewing and investigating Google’s search page algorithm, PageRank, with the EU’s Competition Commission monitoring the proceeds. In order to comply, Google separated its comparison shopping service to a different company after the fine and would run with its own revenues and profits which would effectively avoid further fines. While partly complying with the court decision, the company appealed the decision on the claims that the EU chair mistreated facts and did not show enough evidence that their services hurt the rival companies and asked for the ruling to either be reduced or overturned. 

The appeal from Google was based on six points. The first two claimed that the court did not prove that Google placed its ads at the top search results to favor their services. The next two stated that the court mistreated the pieces of evidence and facts, and the last two points said that the fine amount worth almost 2.5 per cent value of their 2016 revenues was unwarranted as a possible penalty.

The EU changes on Internet regulation
The shopping case is one of the three decisions that have raked up a total of 8.2 billion Euros in EU antitrust fines in the previous decade. Margrethe Vestager subsequently took on Apple, and Facebook, where investigations are still ongoing. Google is expected to face two more defeats in appeals against rulings involving the Android mobile operating system and AdSense advertising service. This is on par with the EU introducing many changes in its technology policies to ensure they have control over the data generated in the region. 

The European Union, from the past couple of years, has been looking to toughen its legislation to ensure fair competition across its 27 member countries. Additionally, the European Union has been looking at the practices of the big tech and other technology-related businesses and holding them accountable for their unsafe policies. The European Union’s decisions on the same issue would be an effective example for other countries to follow suit and secure safe access to resources. In this case, the legislators believe that smaller developers should be allowed the opportunity to showcase their work. The goal is to bring more privacy to EU consumers by restricting target advertisement.  

IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

REGIONAL
NATO warns Russia over military buildup on Ukrainian borders
On 15 November, the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Following the meeting, Stoltenberg warned Moscow: “NATO remains vigilant… Any further provocation or aggressive actions by Russia would be of serious concern. We call on Russia to be transparent about its military activities.” According to estimates by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy about 100,000 Russian troops have amassed in the border area creating panic of a potential attack. Alongside the Eastern Partnership foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels, foreign ministers of France and Germany also issued a joint statement extending support to Ukraine. The statement called on Russia to restrict itself from creating chaos and be open about its military activities. According to the US State Department, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the same with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on 14 November. A statement released post this discussion, saw the US suggesting that the Belarus-Poland border standoff was a distraction technique as “(Belarus’ actions) threaten security, sow division, and aim to distract from Russia’s activities on the border with Ukraine.” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, however, warned Europe, saying that it was high time to choose sides since it would be difficult to rely on Russian gas while retaliating against Russian aggression in Ukraine. (“Ukraine: NATO alarmed by Russian troop buildup on border,” Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2021; “US, France discuss Russian military activity in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2021; Andre Roth, “Nato chief warns Russia against ‘further provocation’ amid Ukraine tensions,” The Guardian, 15 November 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
EEA Report: Air pollution in the EU caused over 300,000 fatalities in 2019
On 15 November, the European Environment Agency (EEA) released a report which maintained that the EU had witnessed over 307,000 premature deaths due to air pollution in 2019. It also claimed that this number could have been cut in half with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) new air quality guidelines. The fresh set of guidelines, published in 2021, could have reduced the premature death rate by 58 per cent, thus enabling the bloc to reach its 2030 goal of 55 per cent fewer premature deaths. Commenting on the report, WHO’s Regional Director for Europe Hans Henri Kluge said: “To breathe clean air should be a fundamental human right. It is a necessary condition for healthy and productive societies.” The air quality, which is measured by the amount of fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and ground-level ozone present in the air, had seen an improvement from 2018 to 2019. In Europe, air pollution poses the ‘biggest environmental risk to human health’. (Alex Barry, “Air pollution killed over 300,000 in EU in 2019 — report,” Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2021)

MIGRATION
Poland-Belarus border standoff: Merkel’s phone call with Lukashenko
On 15 November, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held a telephonic conversation to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis at the Poland-Belarus border. German government spokesperson Steffen Seibert released a statement, saying: “The Chancellor and Mr. Lukashenko spoke about the difficult situation on the border between Belarus and the European Union - especially about the need for humanitarian aid for the refugees and migrants there.” The phone call marked the first conversation between Lukashenko and any western leader after Belarus’ controversial 2020 presidential election. However, German Chancellor-in-waiting Olaf Scholz did not hold Merkel’s reconciliatory stance. He said: “First of all, it must be said clearly that this is a bad dictator there in Belarus. And there is nothing to gloss over, he has lost all legitimacy.” In this backdrop, Lukashenko is said to have addressed Belarusian state-run Belta: “We are actively working on convincing these people to head home.”  (“Belarus crisis: Poland says migrants marching to border,” Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
The US rebukes Russia over anti-satellite missile test
On 16 November, the US State Department spokesperson Ned Price accused Russia of having blown up a Russian satellite leading to the production of debris. The incident which occurred only early 15 November, forced the seven-member International Space Station (ISS) crew to take shelter in capsules. He said: “Earlier today, the Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct ascent anti-satellite missile against one of its own satellites… so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threatens the interests of all nations.” The Russian Space Agency, however, underplayed the event, stating: “The orbit of the object, which forced the crew today to move into spacecraft according to standard procedures, has moved away from the ISS orbit.” They added that the station was now in the “green zone”. Price, infuriated by the incident, warned to work with “allies” to “respond to their irresponsible act”. The debris is expected to risk satellites and human spaceflights in coming years since the velocities at which these particles move can dent or puncture the walls of modules. (“Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation,” BBC, 16 November 2021; Meghan Bartels, “Space debris forces astronauts on space station to take shelter in return ships,” Space.com, 15 November 2021)

GERMANY
The certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline suspended untill resources are transferred
The certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project has been denied by the Federal Network Agency of Germany. The project was aimed to transfer gas from Russia to Germany. The German regulator stated that “the subsidiary set to operate the German part of Nord Stream 2 does not meet the conditions to be an independent transmissions operator.” The reason behind the decision is due to the Switzerland based company’s plan to launch a subsidiary under German law solely for German section of the pipeline. The suspension to hold until the asset and human resources are transferred to the subsidiary. (“German agency suspends certification for Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” Deutsche Welle, 16 November, 2021)


15 November 2021, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #43

France to build new nuclear energy reactors: what does this mean?

Bulgarian general elections; The EU’s BREXIT retaliation package; Russia debate Poland-Belarus standoff with EU partners

Photo : REUTERS/Michel Euler


IN FOCUS 
By Padmashree Anandhan

France to build new nuclear energy reactors: what does this mean?

On 09 November, President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will build new nuclear reactors. The decision aims at reducing the country’s dependency on a foreign power for energy supplies, meeting the climate goals and keeping the prices under control. This re-launch of building nuclear reactors has not occurred for decades in France. Hence, one needs to look into the background of France’s nuclear energy and analyze what the relaunch means for France. Macron said that “it was meant to guarantee France's energy independence, to guarantee our country's electricity supply and achieve our objectives, in particular carbon neutrality in 2050,"

The decision
The construction of six new pressurized-water reactors is expected to begin shortly as the announcement of relaunch comes from Macron. According to a report by RTE, it recommended that construction of 14 large reactors along with small modular reactors will be the cheapest way for France to reach its net-zero emissions target by 2050. The major factor that have accelerated the decision is one being the growing energy crisis in Europe. Two, delay in completion of the project Flamanville, and three to meet the climate change goals by producing renewable energies. 

Background to France’s nuclear energy production
Across the globe, Europe heavily depends on global gas and oil producers. But within Europe, France is the most nuclear-dependent country with 56 operational reactors generating 70 percent of electricity from nuclear energy. Assessing its need, in 2007 it began a new third-generation European Pressurised Reactor (EPR- world’s largest nuclear reactor) project called Flamanville in Normandy. This project has become a setback due to technical and safety problems which have led to massive delays and excess cost. The French government had decided not to launch any new nuclear projects until the completion of the reactor in Flamanville. The former French president Francois Hollande had a different agenda in dealing with the share of nuclear energy in electricity generation. The target was to bring the 75 percent of power production to 50 percent and to shut down the oldest nuclear power plant (Fessenheim) by May 2017. Later the French Energy Transition for Green Growth Law that was adopted in 2015 called for the closing of older reactors only to open space for installing new reactors.

What does this relaunch mean?
First, presidential polls. Macron's status of the presidency will be decided only after his re-elections in the upcoming April Presidential polls. Giving a solution to France’s most urgent energy problem can upscale his reputation to win the elections. Macron had pledged to reduce the nuclear contribution to France’s energy sector to 50 percent from 75 percent by 2035. With this going out of reach, showcasing nuclear energy as a probable solution shall be a bonus point.

Second, it has stirred debate in the region. The government has been criticized for opting for new nuclear energy construction with an existing one already in the backlog. While the opposition parties have condemned the announcement, on the other side the EPF has appreciated the move as it had proposed to build six new reactors. 

Third, the climate question. Macron announced the relaunch of nuclear reactors at the end of COP26 meaning France was opting for nuclear energy for cleaner and renewable energies as a promise to meet its climate change goals. Nuclear energy which is relatively expensive emits lower than coal, oil and gas but at the end the radioactive waste takes tens of thousands of years to deplete. Hence it is a question whether climate friendly nuclear energy production is climate friendly in real or not.

References:

Macron says France will build new nuclear energy reactors,” Reuters, 10 November 2021

France vows to build new nuclear reactors to meet climate goals,” Euronews, 10 November 2021

 

IN FOCUS 
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

BULGARIA
General Elections: Exit polls predicts new anti-graft party to lead coalition
On 14 November, Bulgaria held general elections for the third time in 2021. Previous elections conducted in April and July resulted in fragmented parliaments that could not prove a majority or build a successful coalition. According to preliminary polls, a newly founded anti-corruption party called the ‘We Continue the Change’ won 26.3 per cent of the votes while the ruling GERB party followed with 21.4 per cent. Being the least-vaccinated country in the EU, this election is crucial for Bulgaria as the country continues to reel in a fresh wave of COVID-19 infections. The preliminary voter turnout was 40 per cent, an estimate lower than in previous elections.The official results will be announced in a few days. (“Bulgaria's new anti-graft party holds narrow lead in election,” France24, 15 November 2021; Christian Oliver, “Kiril Petkov is the big winner of the night in Bulgarian election,” POLITICO, 14 November 2021; “Bulgaria: Exit polls show tight race between anti-graft party and conservatives,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2021)

FRANCE
Macron changes the blue of the French flag to a darker navy blue shade
Local media reported that French President Emmanuel Macron had changed the colour of the official French flag to a deeper navy blue, replacing the former brighter hue. According to Europe 1, Macron intended to bring back the navy blue flag as a symbol of the French Revolution. The navy blue colour has long been utilized by France's navy and numerous government buildings around the country. However, in 1976, under President Giscard d'Estaing, the French state changed the color to a brighter blue to match the blue of the European flag. The change in flags at the Élysée Palace has not been publicly disclosed, and no instructions have been issued for other institutions to follow suit. Macron's return to navy blue was met with considerable opposition, with some claiming the new colour was unappealing and would clash with the EU flag, and some sentimental of the version before 1976. According to Europe 1, all parties involved say that the colour change is not intended to be regarded as an anti-EU gesture. In January, France will assume the rotating EU presidency. Macron is also set to face presidential elections in April next year. (“Macron switches to using navy blue on France's flag - reports,” BBC, 15 November 2021)

ITALY
Italy provides stage for dissident art show by the “Chinese Banksy”
The northern Italian city of Brescia provided dissident artist Badiucao a stage for his solo exhibition. Despite threats from Chinese officials, the organizers continued with the show to promote “freedom of expression”. The Chinese embassy sent a letter to Brescia with underlying threats. They deemed Badiucao’s “anti-chinese lies” to have the potential to “jeopardize'' relations between China and Italy. The exhibition was titled: “China is (not) near - Works of a dissent artist” and was displayed in the Santa Giulia museum.The exhibition includes a hybrid image of Carrie Lam and Xi Jin Ping, as well as 64 paintings created with his own blood to reflect the timepieces issued to troops during the Tiananmen Square massacre. A rocking chair that was formerly used as a torture device is also on exhibit. The artist would be seated in the rocking chair, reading a journal given by a source in Wuhan, which had the COVID-19 pandemic's 100-day record. Badiucao is well-known for his critiques of Beijing. He is aware that he is a Chinese state adversary and had first kept his true identity hidden. He is presently based in Australia, where he works as an exile. (“Italian city opens Chinese dissident art show despite pressure from Beijing,” Deutsche Welle, 13 November 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM
BREXIT: The EU’s ‘retaliation package’ if Britain suspends Northern Ireland Protocol
If the UK unilaterally suspends the Northern Ireland trade rules, the draft retaliation package enables the EU to impose tariffs on British exports in a month. According to European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic, a suggestive sanctions list would be discussed with member countries on 16 November. Aligning with the imposition of sanctions, scrapping the Brexit deal as a whole is also under consideration. The retaliation package is seen as a measure that would thwart British threats of suspending the Northern Ireland protocol. (Hans von der Burchard, “EU to review retaliation package in case Britain blows up Brexit deal,” POLITICO, 13 November 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
UK announces a climate agreement declaring phasing out coal
The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the Downing Street press reported the agreement to have marked the “beginning of the death knell for coal power”. The agreement urged countries to push their efforts to reduce coal consumption and fossil fuel subsidies. It was the first agreement to actually mention ‘phasing down coal’ and ‘coal’ in general. However, Johnson noted that this success was laced with “disappointment” adding that climate change is already a life-or-death issue for most individuals. Many campaigners have slammed the summit as having no actual intention of limiting global warming. Experts had low hopes for the UN meeting before it took place. Greenpeace's executive director Jennifer Morgan stated that the working of the agreement was “weak” however the ending of “coal era” was very significant to the climate pledge. (“UK says COP26 climate pact 'historic' but 'tinged with disappointment',” Euronews, 14 November 2021)

COVID-19
Austria: Unvaccinated to be under lockdown
On 14 November, Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced the government’s decision to impose a nation-wide lockdown targeting the unvaccinated. He said: “We must raise the vaccination rate. It is shamefully low… we have told one third of the population: you will not leave your (home) apart from for certain reasons.” The decision, arrived via video conference with the governors of the nine Austrian provinces, is expected to affect around two million from Austria’s nine million population. On 12 November, two provinces — Upper Austria and Salzburg — declared a similar decision, but Schallenberg's announcement expanded the same to the entire country. Only 65 per cent of the Austrian population is fully vaccinated, which is one of the lowest rates in western Europe. The surge in infections is another reason for the declaration; on 13 November, more than 13,000 fresh cases were reported. Unlike the Netherlands that has imposed a three-week partial lockdown, Austria does not want to restrict those who have been fully vaccinated and has ,thus, called for an initial lockdown of 10 days. (“Austria orders nationwide lockdown for those not fully vaccinated against Covid,” The Guardian, 14 November 2021; Carlo Martuscelli, “Austria imposes lockdown on unvaccinated – POLITICO,” POLITICO, 14 November 2021)

MIGRATION
EU partners and Russia debate the escalating crisis at the Belarusian and Polish border
The US, UK, France, Ireland, Norway, Estonia and Albania blamed Belarus for having put lives in danger and orchestrating “instrumentalization” of refugees across borders at the UN Security Council. The Western nations deemed the Belarusian actions to divert attention from its human rights violations and having an aim of destabilizing the borders of neighbouring EU countries. Russia rebuked the allegations made by other countries at the UNSC. While the western countries deemed the situation as “unacceptable”, Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy described the countries to have a “masochist” inclination for having brought up the situation in front of Russia and the international stage. He expressed that the EU had previously faced the same issues and must try to understand why people are leaving their homes and which countries are actually responsible for this displacement. Germany called for the international community and politicians to help with the crisis. Owing to the same, Turkey's Civil Aviation Authority (SHGM) declared that travellers from Iraq, Syria and Yemen would not be allowed to board or purchase tickets from Turkish airports to Belarus. They mentioned that the Belarusian authorities complied with the same. (“Belarus: Western nations, Russia debate migration conflict at UN,” Deutsche Welle, 12 November 2021; “Turkey bars some Middle Eastern nationals from flying to Belarus,”Deutsche Welle, 12 November 2021;”German politicians urge help for Belarus border migrants,” Deutsche Welle, 14 November 2021 ) 

INTERNATIONAL
France: Macron hosts world leaders for conference on Libya
On 12 November, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted world leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the US Vice President Kamala Harris in Paris for a conference on Libya. Since Dictator Moammar Gadhafi's fall in 2011, Libya has been in a chaotic state. The UN-backed conference decided on the Libyan presidential elections to be conducted on 24 December, as threats of sanctions were made on actors who intended to foil the plans. A statement released post-conference warned: “Persons or entities inside or outside Libya who attempt to obstruct, challenge, manipulate or tamper with the electoral process and political transition will be held accountable and may be subject to UN sanctions.” Leaders from Libya, Egypt and Italy also attended the conference while Russia and Turkey were represented by low-level diplomats. This is attributed to Turkey being concerned about France seeking withdrawal of the Turkish forces from Libya while the Libyan National Army collaborates with Wagner group’s Russian mercenaries. (“World powers call for support for December 24 elections in Libya,” Deutsche Welle, 12 November 2021)


13 November 2021, Saturday I NIAS Europe Daily Brief #42

Portugal: Looming Political Crisis

The EU to sue Portugal for Nitrogen emissions; France hosts conference for Libya; Ukraine to gather data on Belarus movement in borders; Social media companies retract services controversial to EU law; COP26 conference extended

Photo : WikimediaCommons


IN FOCUS 
By Joeana Cera Matthews 

Portugal: Looming Political Crisis 

On 04 November, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the decision to conduct snap elections on 30 January 2022. Over a televised broadcast, de Sousa said: "In moments like this, we need a solution without fear and without making a drama... This is the only way for the Portuguese people to choose what they want in the coming years."   

What is the background? 
First, the budget refusal. The call for snap elections followed the failure of the 2022 budget proposal put forth by Prime Minister Antonio Costa's government. Since Portugal transitioned to democracy in 1974, such an event has not occurred. The budget, crucial in Portugal's pandemic recovery efforts, was rejected on 27 October by a rare coming together of the Communist Party (PCP) and the larger Left Bloc (BE). According to analysts, the 2022 draft budget was termed the 'most left-wing in years' as it involved free creches, fiscal progress, and stronger public services. However, the PCP and BE were unsatisfied with Costa ignoring their demands to protect workers, improve social security, and increase investment in health services.  

Second, the looming political instability. Since 2015, Costa's Socialist Party (PS) has been in power despite lacking a majority in the parliament. Nonetheless, Portugal has witnessed a relatively stable political scenario under Costa and his left-wing coalition. The snap elections are set to impact this sensitive equilibrium. The country is still recovering from the pandemic – both economically and in terms of its health system. As Costa stated: "the last thing Portugal needs, and the Portuguese deserve, is a political crisis at this moment." The first country to get the EU's Resilience and Recovery fund, Portugal expects to inject EUR 45 billion into its economy. However, the potential political instability is set to be a hindrance to its recovery.

Third, the fragmented internal politics. Since 2005, Portugal has not seen a single party win with an absolute majority. The ability to attain an obvious victory seems unrealistic given the increasing number of parties that point to more chaos. De Sousa had attempted to aid the parties in reaching a quicker consensus on the budget by warning them of dissolving the government if the draft failed. Despite this, the PCP joined hands with the larger BE to reject the proposal in a rare coming together. Prior to this, the former partners held days of negotiations wherein they accused each other of blackmail and dishonesty while pointing out how the Portuguese poor had been left to fend for themselves. 

Fourth, the timing of elections. The elections have been announced two years ahead of schedule and will see 230 lawmakers being elected to parliament. President de Sousa appears to have considered the rifts within political parties while deciding on a date for the elections. Scheduled for the end of January, sufficient time is provided for parties to change leadership via elections.  

What does this mean? 
First, the ignorance to alternatives. Although de Sousa consulted with the parties and his Council of State before making the announcement, he seems to have overlooked the alternatives. According to Lisbon University's Prof. Francisco Pereira Coutinho, the President could have suggested forming a new government or even opted for a technocrat-led government, as in Italy, instead of the parliament dissolution and snap elections. The present decision will hamper the economic recovery since a new state budget proposal is not expected until April 2022. 

Second, the expected outcome. PS is predicted to gain in the elections, although it would not receive a parliamentary majority. The hard-right Chega party is considered to be the only beneficiary of the elections, given its clear chances of a victory. However, the party is considered too dangerous a coalition partner. As Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva said: "This election … will be a choice between the progressive and pro-European center and the center left on the one hand and, on the other, an unstable, divided and fragmented right which does not exclude reaching out to the far right."  

References 

"Snap elections are called after Portugal's government collapses," The Economist, 06 November 2021. 

Paul Ames, "Portugal heads for snap election in January," POLITICO, 04 November 2021. 

Alison Roberts, "Portugal's president calls snap election," BBC, 04 November 2021. 

Barry Hatton, "Portugal's president calls a snap election on 30 January," The Washington Post, 04 November 2021. 

Catarina Demony and Sergio Goncalves, "Portugal heads to polls on 30 January, political stability fades," Reuters, 04 November 2021. 

"Portugal's president to address nation this week as snap election looms," Reuters, 31 October 2021. 

Paul Ames, "End of the affair: Portugal's far left dumps António Costa," POLITICO, 27 October 2021. 

"Portugal: Elections likely as lawmakers reject 2022 budget," Deutsche Welle, 27 October 2021. 


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan 

REGIONAL 
The European Commission to sue Portugal for not controlling nitrogen emissions
For high emitting levels of nitrogen dioxide, the European Commission will be suing Portugal for not taking control measures. The commission has said in a statement that "Portugal has continually and persistently exceeded the annual nitrogen dioxide limit value in three air quality zones." The commission from May 2019 has continuously warned Portugal, and as it failed to address the issue, it will face legal suit. An earlier report by the European Environment Agency revealed that every European city had exposure to nitrogen oxide, out of which Lisbon and Porto were the highest. ("EU sues Portugal for poor air quality caused by nitrogen dioxide," Reuters, 12 November 2021

FRANCE 

International Conference held to push forward the Libyan elections
French President Emmanuel Macron arranged an international conference to bring back the international commitment to conduct fair presidential and parliamentary elections in Libya. The top officials attended the conference from Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal. The Libyan authorities have promised to conduct the elections. However, challenges in electoral law, security, and the rule of law in the country might slow down the process of the elections. On a humanitarian note, the Human Rights Watch report stated that elections must be kept in Libya sooner to get through the violent transition. Apart from the above issues that are interrupting the elections in Libya, it is also the external parties Turkey and Russia which have stationed their military in the region. Unfortunately the EU, due to its limited ability, convincing the removal of the troops is a larger challenge. The final declaration at the end of the conference was "We reiterate our commitment to the success of the Libyan political process … and to the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections on 24 December 2021" (Rym Momtaz "Europeans make final push for Libyan elections," Politico, 12 November 2021)

UKRAINE

Ukraine sends guards to border to gather intelligence
On 12 November, Ukraine announced it was sending its guards and National officers to the border area which it shares with Poland. The task was to share intelligence and operation know-how to deal with the Belarusian migrant crisis. Belarus which has been under constant criticism from the EU and its neighbouring member states for causing the migrant crisis. Ukraine, which shares the southern border with Belarus, is very well prepared and has been helping Poland to resolve the crisis situation. According to a statement released by the Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyskiy "We are ready to promptly consider any request from the Polish side to provide assistance in resolving the current situation." ("Ukraine says it sends officers to Polish border to share intel on migrant crisis," Reuters, 12 November 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Big social media companies retract their controversial tech applications
The Lawmakers of the European Parliament are concerned as big social media companies like Google, Facebook, and Online ad lobby are found guilty. It has decided to regulate targeted online advertising. Upon the decision, Facebook has said it shall remove its critiqued ad targeting service, which uses an indication of religion and sexual orientation to show ads. Google has also stepped to remove its third-party cookies, which track the user's online activity, and Apple has also begun to block such similar tracker technology. According to IAB it claims that a ban on advertising would widen the gap between those who benefit from technological developments and those who don't. A question to analyse is whether the EU will through the technological threat and safeguard its data. (Clothilde Goujard And Vincent Manancourt, "Big Tech scrambles as Europe ramps up crusade against online advertising," Politico, 12 November 2021) 

CLIMATE CHANGE

COP26 summit extends by one more night
On 12 November, the COP26 climate conference was decided to be extended 13 November to allow more negotiations. The key topics of discussion revolved around coal, cash and timing. Many climate leaders of countries made statements on the same. The President of the COP26, Alok Sharma stated that "he was taking part in "intensive consultations" with Groups and Parties". From the Climate Action Network International, Mohamed Adow argued that the UK's proposal to fund the developing nations in fighting climate change is more disappointing as it would become a rich world negotiation and poorer nations cannot accept that. The US climate envoy John Kerry made a statement on fossil fuels. He said "it was a definition of insanity that trillions were being spent to subsidise fossil fuels worldwide. We're allowing to feed the very problem we're here to try to cure. It doesn't make sense." ("COP26, scheduled to end Friday, will now continue on Saturday as key issue remain unresolved," euronews, 12 November 2021)


12 November 2021, Friday I NIAS Europe Daily Brief #41

Europe's Wine Industry: Impacts of Climate Change

The US Secretary of the State meets Ukrainian Foreign Minister; Belarusian President warns of cutting gas supplies; Unvaccinated Austrians to face lockdown; Poland's Tribunal passes resolution against restrictive abortion law;

Photo : EC.Europa.EU


IN FOCUS   
By Joeana Cera Matthews

Europe's Wine Industry: Impacts of Climate Change

On 04 November, the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) released a statement predicting a potential fall in the production volume of wine in Italy, Spain, and France from the 2020 levels due to "late spring frost and overall unfavourable climatic conditions." It further added: "This would be the third consecutive year where the global production level is below average." 

What is the issue? 
The OIV statement, which collected data from 28 countries representing 85 per cent of the world production in 2020, concluded that the 2021 world wine production would range between 247.1 mhl (millions of hectolitres) and 253.5 mhl. The European Union (EU), in particular, is estimated to produce 145 mhl of wine in 2021 — a 13 percent decline from 2020's production levels. (One hectolitre is equivalent to 133 standard bottles.) Italy, Spain, and France – the three largest wine-producing countries account for 45 percent of the world's and 79 percent of the EU's wine production. 

What does climate change have to do with wine production? 
First, the decline in production. 'Unfavourable climatic conditions' have been cited as the reason for the fall in the production volume of wine. The past year's weather conditions were not kind, especially to Europe, which hosts the major wine-producing countries. In comparison to the 2020 levels, Italy saw a drop of nine percent in its wine production as Spain witnessed a 14 percent drop. Switzerland's crops, too, were affected by frost, followed by hail and then mildew. This contributed to the decline in its production volume, which hit a 20-year-low at 0.8 mhl. France suffered a whopping 27 percent drop. Evidently, France was the hardest hit. According to the OIV's press release: "France bore the hardest brunt of a disastrous vintage with severe frost in April, followed by summer rain, hailstorms, and mildew." Austria, Greece, Slovakia, along with several other EU countries, also showcased a negative performance with respect to 2020.  

Second, the decline in quality. Unfortunately, it is not just the production volumes that saw a decline. According to Biologist Elizabeth Wolkovich, the soaring temperatures have led to a change in the taste of wine itself. The warmer temperatures create increased sugar and decreased acid in the berries – implying higher alcohol content and honey-like flavour. The OIV's Director General Pau Roca said: "(wine growers are) confronting a much greater problem than the pandemic: climate change." Jura's wine receives its characteristic properties due to the 'semi-continental climate' of the region; the warmer winters have led to premature blossoms. As Director of Fruitiere Vinicole Arbois Gabriel Dietric said: "When the winters were cold, the vines would sleep through the frost, but now with the warmer winters, they wake too early and become vulnerable." Techniques to protect the produce from the winter frosts are also being experimented by the winegrowers. 

Third, the impact on livelihoods. In France's Jura, a small wine region known for its natural wine, the winegrowers suffered losses owing to the 'extreme weather conditions'. Jura is only one among the numerous wine estates that have incurred losses. The inability to earn has led to increased reports of depression as well as suicide in winemakers. The growing demand for wine despite the limited crop returns have forced winegrowers to opt for alternatives in an effort to maintain production levels. Addressing these concerns, Roca called for considering "long-term solution(s)" involving "sustainable practices" to back the winemakers. He also pointed out the industry's need to adapt. 

Fourth, not wholly 'detrimental'. The hotter summers facilitated production of some varieties of wine, like the pinot noir. Facility Manager of Domaine Maire & Fils Jacques Hauller said: "... the challenge of global heating helped us a lot because we were able to make some pinot noir that won awards in the UK and France." Similarly, heavy rains in the UK helped create the 'perfect' conditions to produce sparkling wine.   

What does this mean? 
First, a global problem. The decline in wine production due to climate change is not an issue that is particular to Europe. The US, despite having an estimated six percent rise from 2020 levels, is expected to fall by three percent in the five-year average; the country's summer drought is being blamed for the same. Although the Southern Hemisphere saw a rise in production, this failed to compensate for Europe's loss.  

Second, a 'here and now' crisis. As Roca stated, unlike the pandemic, there is no "vaccine" for climate change. To those of us who continue arguing that climate change is not a 'now' issue – this is an eye-opener. The erratic climatic conditions have begun impacting daily necessities. We need to be more sensitive to the issue at hand and deal with it soon, in order to avert huge distress to the global populace. Quoting The Economist: "There is no time to lose." 

References
Samantha Lock, "Warning over 'extremely low' wine production in Europe due to bad weather," The Guardian, 05 November 2021. 

"SPEAKING FROM THE OIV'S HEADQUARTERS IN PARIS, BY WEB CONFERENCE, DIRECTOR GENERAL PAU ROCA, PRESENTED,THE FIRST ESTIMATES OF," International Organisation of Vine and Wine, 04 November 2021. 

Ceylan Yeginsu, "Climate Change Threatens Wine, and a Way of Life, in Jura," The New York Times, 03 November 2021. 

"The grapes are off Climate change is affecting wine flavours," The Economist, 15 July 2021. 


IN BRIEF   
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Padmashree Anandhan 

UKRAINE
US sends in CIA director against Russian military buildup around Ukraine
On 10 November, Anthony Blinken, US secretary of State, met with Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The meeting was held amidst growing concerns of a Russian Military buildup around Ukraine. He warned Russia against using energy as a weapon stating that the US commitment to Ukrainian security is "ironclad". Russia had been accused of holding onto energy supplies to boost gas prices in Europe. As a part of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal, which adversely affects Ukraine's economy in gas transit fees, Germany vowed to respond to any Russian altercation against Ukraine. Previously, Kuleba insisted Germany use its "leverage" and provide a strong message against Russia. He stated that support from allies would surely deter Russia, which has already been weaponizing energy against Ukraine. The US has dispatched Bill Burns, Director of the CIA, to monitor the Russian military buildup around the border, sparking tensions of an invasion in Ukraine. ("Ukraine: US top diplomat warns Russia over military buildup," Deutsche Welle, 11 November 2021)

BELARUS
Lukashenko warns of cutting gas supplies
The standoff between Belarus and the Polish frontier has left thousands of refugees stranded in harsh conditions. A large part of the blame has been attributed to Belarus for orchestrating a crisis. As tensions within the EU run deep, the UNSC criticized Belarus for having "instrumentalized migrants" fight against the bloc. On 12 November, Alexander Lukashenko warned of cutting gas supplies against new sanctions imposed by the EU. The pipeline being referred to is the Yamal-Europe which runs across Belarus from Russia supplying gas to countries like Poland and Germany. Previously, Foreign Minister Vladimir Makeï agreed to settle the matter and attain a compromise. Contrary to Lukashenko's statement, the opposition party dismissed his threats by stating that the gas supply cuts would harm Belarus a lot more than the EU. (Alasdair Sandford, "Belarus: Lukashenko threatens to cut gas supplies if EU levies more sanctions over migrants," Deutsche Welle, 12 November 2021)

AUSTRIA
Unvaccinated Austrians to face severe restrictions upon rise in Covid-19 cases
A record of more than 11,000 Covid-19 infections was reported in the last 24 hours. Upon which the Austrian government is set to impose a national lockdown for the unvaccinated. Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said that "Two-thirds of people should not suffer because others were hesitant." Till now, upper Austria that borders with Germany and the Czech Republic that has a population of 1.5 million, has the highest infection rate with lowest vaccination rate. Once the rule is passed, the unvaccinated people will be restricted from entering all the social spaces. ("Covid: Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated," BBC, 12 November 2021)

POLAND
Resolution passed against restrictive abortion ban
In a resolution passed with 374 votes against 124 and 55 absentees, MEP's condemned Poland's near abortion ban. They emphasized the illegitimate Tribunal's ruling imposing a near-total aboriton ban. The draconian law recently was associated with the death of a 30-year-old woman, identified only as Isabella. The MEPs expressed their regret over the "restrictive legislation" that prevents women from seeking safe abortion including cases of fatal abnormalities. The resolution demanded the Polish government to ensure that no other death occurs due to the restrictive abortion law. ("'No more women should die': MEPs slam Poland's near-total abortion ban," Euronews, 11 November 2021) 

Poland's Independence march takes place despite ban
11 November is the day when Poland gained independence after World War I. Being the Independence Day of Poland, a long march took place in spite of a court ban. Security forces were mobilised in the capital and cities to handle the rallies. Police troops were also assigned in the borders with migrants trying to enter from Belarus. The previous year also saw the march amidst the pandemic. It differed from the present one as the supporters were treated by police with tear gas and rubber bullets. The focus on Belarus and the migrant issue might be the reason for the difference. ("Far-right Polish Independence Day march goes ahead despite court ban," Euronews, 11 November 2021)

ENERGY
A European Project aims to create energy from roads
Rolling Solar is a European project that strives to create energy in a cost-effective way from the road by using photovoltaics. It is said to have got inspired from the 800,000 kilometres road held by Germany, Belgium and Netherlands. The project cost is estimated to be EUR 5.7 million, out of which EUR 2.8 million will be funded by the European Cohesion Policy. With the help of its partner Heijmans (a real estate, construction and technology company) it has been testing three types of solar cells on the sound wall in Romalen, Netherlands. According to the innovation manager of Heijmans "a very useful solution for the energy transition, because they make double use of land and space." The long-term goals of the project are to develop sustainable cross-border collaboration and share skills across research and industry sectors. (Aurora Velez, "Solar cells on roads, a new direction for Europe's energy transition," Euronews, 09 November 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #08, 10 November 2021, Wednesday

EU-US Steel and Aluminium trade deal: Five reasons why

Poland-Belarus tensions over migrant crisis escalate; The US special envoy visits Bosnia-Herzegovina; Petr Fiala to form new Czech government; Ireland preparing plans to counter potential EU-UK trade war; 

Photo : REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque


IN FOCUS  
By Padmashree Anandhan


EU-US Steel and Aluminium trade deal: Five reasons why

On 30 October, at the G20 Summit, the US agreed to sign the deal with the EU to end the standing dispute over the trade of steel and aluminium. A dispute that arose during former US President Donald Trump, the US levied tariffs on the EU's steel and aluminium exports citing national security concerns. It levied a 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminium products. To counter this, the EU imposed tariffs on various US products such as motorcycles, motorboats, whiskey, orange juice, and jeans. With US President Joe Biden's willingness to ease the relations with the EU, and the latter's desperation to win back its US steel industry- market, the deal was signed. 

What is the deal about?
The current deal, under Section 232, imposes the same tariff rates but with slight relaxation from the EU. It will allow an annual export of 3.3 million tonnes of steel and aluminium in volume, above which the trade shall be subjected to tariff rates. For the US to sign the deal, it also mandated that the EU produce steel domestically to qualify for duty-free exports. The steel produced in the EU must be entirely made from its resources and not imported from China, Russia, or South Korea. This standard has been termed as "melted and poured." 

The dispute
The dispute started in 2018 when Trump imposed tariffs on certain steel and aluminium products. This affected USD 7.2 billion imports from the EU into the US, resulting in a 53 percent fall in the EU exports of steel and aluminium between 2018 and 2020. As a countermeasure, the EU increased its duty from 10 percent to 50 percent (USD 3.3 billion) on the affected steel and aluminium products, motorcycles, agricultural goods, and various other products. On a continuation, it was scheduled to double the tariff (USD 7.5 billion) by 01 December 2021 to rebalance the damage caused by the US restrictions. 

The relations began to smoothen this year after diplomatic steps were taken by the Biden administration. Starting with the announcement of ending the 17-year dispute over aircraft subsidies, forming a new partnership in trade and technology, agreement on global minimum taxes, and lastly the deal to end the steel and aluminium trade dispute.

What does the US-EU deal mean?
The deal not only mends the transatlantic relations between the EU and the US but also serves larger benefits.

First, it allows both parties to prevent steel imports from China. In the cold war between the US and China, the former aims to bring in the EU as a competitor in the steel industry to side-line the global steel exports of China. The EU as part of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), aims to prevent imports from China that produce steel under low environmental standards.

Second, protection of domestic industry. For the US, eliminating tariffs on its products and averting the doubling up is a great save, but it also gets to protect its steel and aluminium industry parallelly. Due to the limit in the number of duty-free imports from the EU, it ensures domestic competition and prevents steel dump from other countries. In the case of the EU, the steel export, which had fallen below 50 percent (from 4.8 to 2.5 million metric tons) to the US will now boost up with the deal. Hence the steel and aluminium industry of the EU is set to advance.

Third, reduction of steel cost for the US manufacturers. The steel prices have tripled in the past years as the demand rose in the post-pandemic period. This deal would mean lowering the costs and preventing an import surge which will impact US labor unions and manufacturers.

Fourth, it is a backlash for other US allies, which include the UK, Japan, and South Korea since the EU now gets first in line to sign the deal. Hence, it gets to capture the US market for its steel and aluminium products before the competition begins.

Fifth, towards a global deal for green steel and aluminium production. According to the World Steel Association, the steel industry contributes seven to nine per cent of global emissions. The US steel production is based on electric-arc furnaces which have lower carbon emissions than the coal-fuelled blast furnaces used by China. Therefore, mandating the EU to produce steel on the same terms means setting a global green standard for steel production. This at large helps in forming a legal framework for other countries to follow the same to sustain their steel industries at the world market.

References
Ana Swanson and Katie Rogers, "US Agrees to Roll Back European Steel and Aluminum Tariffs," The New York Times, 30 October 2021.

David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, "US, EU end Trump-era tariff war over steel and aluminum," Reuters, 31 October 2021.

Jeff Mason and Jan Strupczewski, "EU and US end clash over steel and aluminium, take aim at China's 'dirty' steel," Reuters, 01 November 2021.


IN BRIEF  
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer 

AUSTRIA
Austrian climate minister opts for train travel to the UN climate summit
Leonore Gewsessler, Austria's climate minister, chose to board a train to the UN climate conference, which was held in Glasgow. She stated that travel by train saved more than a tonne of CO2 equivalent per person. Gewsessler tweeted about needing strong railways after having opted for the same with her whole team. She tweeted that they were "excited and full of anticipation" over her recent investment promotion for trains. Further, she announced additional Austrian night trains to begin from 2025. According to the European Environment Agency assessments, train travel is the most environmentally friendly mode of transport in terms of emissions. In 2018, transportation accounted for around 25 percent of the EU emissions, with road transport accounting for the majority. ("Austria's climate minister takes train to COP26 to reduce emissions," Euronews, 09 November 2021)

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
US envoy arrives for a two-day visit
On 07 November, the US special envoy to the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar reached Bosnia and Herzegovina to mitigate the increasing domestic tensions. Escobar arrived for a two-day visit and met Dodik on 08 November. Escobar addressed journalists, saying: "One of the things we want to make sure of is that Bosnia remains independent, sovereign and territorially whole." The visit follows the EU's restrained approach to Bosnia's looming crisis. Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik threatened to create a 'breakaway Serb army' and other separatist measures. However, Dodik did not seem pacified post his meeting with Escobar. He said: "...we would continue with our goal to send certain laws to the parliament of the Republica Srpska and withdraw our consent from issues such as the army, indirect taxation, the court system, and that we will draft new legislation in the next six months." Many have accused Dodik's threats to resemble 'calls for war'. The present escalation of tensions is being compared to the initial days of the Bosnian War of 1992 to 1995. (Una Hajdari, "In Bosnia, US overtakes EU as crisis boils," POLITICO, 09 November 2021)

THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Fiala accepts the mandate to form a new government
Milos Zeman, the ailing Czech president, invited the leader of the SPOLU (Together) Coalition Petr Fiala, to form a new government putting an end to the political uncertainty following the Czech elections. The mandate, which was made public in a press statement from Zeman's office, signalled the beginning of the ousting of Prime Minister Andrej Babi's turbulent term. On 09 November, Fiala accepted the mandate to form a new government, stating that he would begin negotiations with coalition partners. SPOLU won a victory over Babis' ANO party and signed a coalition agreement with the Pirates and STAN parties. After finalizing the new form of government, the three-party led coalition will have a majority of 108 MPs in the Chamber of Deputies. (Siegfried Mortkowitz, “Czech president taps Petr Fiala to lead new government,” POLITICO, 09 November 2021)

 IRELAND
"Contingency plans" underway fearing EU-UK trade war
On 09 November, Irish Deputy Prime Minister (Tanaiste) Leo Varadkar announced that Ireland was making 'contingency plans' in case the UK was to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Varadkar maintained that the EU would be forced to retort to "rebalancing measures" such as suspending the Brexit trade deal, if such an event were to take place. On 08 November, the Irish cabinet sub-committee discussed the said preparations. Considering the possibility of a trade war between the UK and the EU, Varadkar said: "I don't think anybody wants to see the European Union suspending the Trade and Cooperation Agreement with Britain." Stormont's Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill had previously requested the UK to back down on its threat to trigger Article 16. Following Varadkar's announcement, O'Neill said: "I warned the government against the language they're using… What we need to find is solutions and stability, certainly not another period of instability." The EU-UK negotiations are in their fourth week but a de-escalation of tensions is seen as unlikely. (Jayne McCormack, "Brexit: Ireland making contingency plans for UK move on Article 16," BBC, 09 November 2021; Shawn Pogatchnik, "Irish 'making preparations' for possible EU-UK trade war," POLITICO, 09 November 2021; Lisa O'Carroll, "Ireland starts making contingency plans for UK trade war with EU," The Guardian, 09 November 2021)

NORWAY
Attacker carrying knife shot in Norway
Police in Norway have shot dead a man threatening passers-by with a knife. Egil Jørgen Brekke, Senior Police Chief explained that the incident has not been declared terror related yet. The police declared the act to be a standalone act. Initially suggesting that passers-by were injured, the police later confirmed that only one police officer was slightly injured. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said he understood the sentiments of the people in Oslo and described the city as a safe one among the other larger cities in Europe. After last month's bow and arrow attacks, this is the third standalone attempt at harming innocent passers-by. The police refrained from revealing more details owing to the customary investigation by the Norwegian Bureau for the Investigation of Police Affairs, when police officers using firearms are involved. ("Norway police shoot dead a knife-wielding man threatening passers-by in Oslo," ABC News, 10 November 2021)

MIGRATION 
EU blames Lukashenko of 'gangster-style' tactics; Morawiecki accuses Putin to be 'enabler'
On 09 November, Polish officials closed the border crossing after increased tensions at the Polish-Belarus border. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki tweeted: "Sealing the Polish border is our national interest. But today the stability and security of the entire EU is at stake." In an emergency session of the Polish parliament, Morawiecki accused Putin's involvement in the migrant crisis. He said: "This is the latest attack of Lukashenko, who is an executor, but has an enabler, and this enabler is in Moscow, this enabler is President Putin, which shows a determination to carry out the scenario of rebuilding the Russian empire, the scenario that we, all Poles, have to forcefully oppose." However, Belarus denied the allegations against them as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated: "I am not a madman, I understand perfectly well where it can lead… We understand, we know our place. But we will not kneel." Russia also responded to the crisis with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating that their priority was the "lives and health" of the migrants while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested that Belarus be financially aided to stop the migrant inflow. Meanwhile, the European Commission is considering imposing further sanctions on Belarus. On 08 November, the member states also agreed on suspending an EU-Belarus visa facilitation agreement. ("Poland seals Belarus border crossing in migrant standoff," Deutsche Welle, 09 November 2021; Daniel Boffey and Andrew Roth, "EU condemns Belarus's 'gangster-style' tactics in Polish border crisis," The Guardian, 09 November 2021; Zosia Wanat, "Poland blames Putin for instigating border crisis," POLITICO, 09 November 2021) 


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #07, 09 November 2021, Tuesday

"Her heart beats too": Poland's anti-abortion protests continue

Poland-Belarus migrant crisis escalates; Global protests erupt owing to lack of urgent measures in COP26; French couple win legal fight after claiming to have 'turbine syndrome'; Republicans propose further sanctions on Nord Stream 2

Photo : David Zuchowicz/Agencja Wyborcza.pl via REUTERS


IN FOCUS  
By Vaishnavi Iyer

"Her heart beats too": Poland's anti-abortion protests continue

Mass demonstrations under the slogan of "Not one more" and candlelight vigils were held for the death of a 30-year-old mother, identified only as Izabela. She had succumbed to septic shock at a hospital in Pszczyna, in the south of Poland in October 2021. Although having passed away in September, her death was brought up by her family to "draw public attention to the situation of women and doctors in Poland and to lead to changes in the law." The death has been registered as a possible cause by medical error and is referred to a regional prosecutor.

Official clarification
On 07 November, Poland's Health Minister Adam Niedzielski detailed the latest legislative restriction and medical recommendations on abortion. The clarification states that if a mother's life or health is at risk, doctors "must not be afraid of making obvious decisions" about abortions. The guidance was scheduled amidst mass protests in Gdansk, Wroclaw, Szczecin, and Pszczyna, along with other major cities in Poland.

Poland, which is predominantly Catholic, already had one of Europe's strictest abortion laws, prohibiting the procedure in almost all circumstances except rape or incest, and if the woman's life or health is in danger. Izabela's death comes after a contentious judgement by Poland's constitutional court last year that declared a 1993 statute allowing abortions in cases of serious foetal abnormalities illegal. The verdict, which triggered widespread protests across the country, intensified the EU's most draconian abortion rules, limiting abortion to only two scenarios: a threat to the mother's health or a pregnancy caused by rape or incest. The tribunal's decision eliminated the option of having abortions if a woman's life was in danger, or if the foetus had incurable deformities. Despite the fact that her foetus lacked amniotic fluid, which can cause deformities or defects in the womb, doctors refused to allow Izabela an abortion, according to a lawyer representing the family. Instead, she was told by medical personnel that she would only be treated after the foetus died, as stated by the lawyer.

The need for the clarification thus arises over the question of - would Izabela still be alive if this occurred before the ruling? 

Poland's official position on abortion
Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said: "If the life or health of the mother is threatened then an abortion is still possible, and here nothing has changed." Attending the protest in Warsaw, former European Union leader Donald Tusk expressed opposition to the recent ruling. Niedzielski described the case as complex and requiring further investigation. He claimed that obstetricians would be given instructions to make it clear that a woman's safety is reason enough to terminate a pregnancy.

The hospital staff noted that they "did everything in their power" to help Izabela and the foetus. The Associated Press reported that all medical decisions were made in accordance with the legal provisions and standards of conduct in Poland. Rene Donadio of the International Planned Parenthood Federation European Network noted: "If this had occurred before that ruling, Izabela would still probably be alive." Protest organizer, Katarzyna Kotula, referred to "the frozen effect" of the ruling which leaves medical professionals in a limbo to perform abortions. Protestors noted that similar cases would continue to occur if there was no change. 

The verdict was unrelated to Izabela's case, according to Weronika Przebieraa of the International Law Center Institute at Ordo Iuris, an ultraconservative Catholic legal organisation that fought for the abortion limit. "The doctors simply failed to exercise their right," Przebieraa said, referencing a part of the legislation that allows abortion when a woman's life or health is in danger. Przebieraa claims that a change in the law would have had no impact on Izabela's medical status. 

Too little too late for Poland?
As a devout Catholic country, this is not the first time Poland has seen protests over a conservative ruling. Poland is ranked 24th in the EU on the Gender Equality Index, with 55.8 points out of a possible 100. Poland's score is 12.1 points lower than the average for the European Union. Its score has barely risen by 0.3 points since 2010, with a slow increase of (+0.6 points) since 2017. In 2019, Poland's ruling party stoked the fires of public outrage rather than stepping down over the abortion bill. The party openly claimed that "waging war against women" would pay dividends in domestic politics. Poland's de facto leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, said that the country was undergoing a "culture civil war" and had encouraged people to defend the church "at all costs" or Poland would be "devastated." 

Poland in the past few months has made controversial legal updates surrounding the ban of pride parades and a court appeal which overpowers Polish National Law over EU laws. Despite threats from the EU over increased sanctions, Poland's ruling party "thrives on fear mongering." Notably for the PiS domestic politics are more important than international commitments. The conservative values pitch by the party resonates strongly among the right and radical voters stroking far-right nationalistic sentiments. A few of these supporters had even made a human shield around a church in 2019 against females protesting over the abortion laws. 

The ruling party is presenting the demonstrations as an attack on a cornerstone of Polish society and, by extension, an offensive on "the people" by framing the struggle as one centered on the church. PiS has constructed a false contrast between itself and political opponents who are pro-LGBTQ rights or pro-migration and so ostensibly aiming to "undermine the Polish way of life." The party's polling success demonstrates that a segment of the electorate reacts positively to these techniques. The "us versus them" narrative has also allowed the government to shift the blame of mishandling the pandemic and attributing the rise of covid cases to all the protest gatherings. 

Europe must not be a mute spectator while Poland blows up. The European Commission must take a stand. It must not only criticise restrictions on women's access to safe and legal abortion and attacks on children's right to sex education, but it must also take a far stricter position on Poland's deteriorating rule of law. Poland cannot continue to publicly abuse, harass, and intimidate people who want to uphold the rule of law. 2021 has seen intense legal reforms over abortion laws. However, most of these laws have seen a regressive pattern. The consequences of the directed constitutional reform are borne by groups disadvantaged to the legal and political battle. It will be interesting to observe how the international community reacts to such statutes.

References

"Poland clarifies abortion law after protests over mother's death," BBC, 09 November 2021.

Sammy Westfall, "Poland's abortion law under scrutiny after pregnant woman dies in hospital," The Washington Post, 03 November 2021.

James Shotter and Agata Majos, "Thousands protest against Polish abortion laws," Financial Times, 07 November 2021.

"Polish parliament debates bill to ban "promoting homosexuality" and LGBT parades," Notes from Poland, 29 October 2021.

"For Poland's ruling party, waging war against women pays off," POLITICO, 29 October 2020.


IN BRIEF 
By Joeana Cera Matthews 

FRANCE
Couple wins legal fight over 'turbine syndrome'
On 08 November, The Guardian reported a judge in Toulouse to have compensated a French couple with EUR 110,000 after accepting that their health was affected due to a nearby windfarm. In the first judgement of its kind, Christel and Luc Fockaert were recognized to have been impacted by 'turbine syndrome' - essentially a sociological phenomenon, characteristically spread by terming the impact as 'vibro-acoustic disease' and 'wind turbine syndrome'. Six wind turbines located 700 metres from their residence at Fontrieu in the Tarn, southern France were alleged to have caused several health issues. After suffering from headaches, insomnia, heart irregularities, depression, dizziness, tinnitus and nausea for two years, the couple shifted. Christel said: "We didn't understand straight away, but little by little we realised the problem came from the turbines." The couple's lawyer Alice Terrasse stated: "It's an unusual case and as far as I know there has been no precedent… We already consider environmental issues and biodiversity, and occasionally the impact on landscapes, but not enough the issues of human health. This could create a jurisprudence and, above all, make the regulations evolve." (Kim Willsher, "French couple who said windfarm affected health win legal fight,The Guardian, 08 November 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
COP26: Global protests erupt following lack of substantial measures
On 06 November, protests across the world witnessed climate activists gathering to point out the inefficient talks taking place at the UN's COP26 summit in Glasgow, Scotland. Protests were seen alongside the summit talks in Glasgow, while elsewhere in the world, similar protests were seen in Seoul, Sydney, Nairobi, Istanbul, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Paris, London, among other cities. The protesters were specific about what they protested in some regions, as Sydney and Melbourne saw the demonstrators dissenting the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's advocacy for the mining industry. The leaders were criticized for not taking 'immediate and serious' measures to reduce the carbon emissions. The lack of urgent measures to tackle climate change made a few of them deem it another 'blah blah blah' climate summit, quoting Greta Thunberg while others have gone to the extent of calling it a 'failure'. ("Climate activists rally outside COP26 in Glasgow,Deutsche Welle, 06 November 2021)

MIGRATION
Poland-Belarus migrant crisis escalates; EU calls for further sanctions
On 08 November, Belarusian media released a video that showed Belarusian border guards escorting almost thousands of migrants to the Polish region of Podlaskie in order to let them cross into the EU. Following this, video reports saw Polish border guards pushing back the migrants with the use of tear gas as people attempted to knock down the fences and cut through the barbed wire. At this, the migrants were heard shouting "Germany!"  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for further sanctions to be imposed on the Belarusian regime and proposed to consider additional measures on "how to sanction, including through blacklisting, third-country airlines that are active in human trafficking". ("EU's von der Leyen calls for new sanctions on Belarus over migrant influx," France24, 08 November 2021; Andrew Roth, "Belarus escorts 1,000 migrants towards Polish border | Belarus," The Guardian, 08 November 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
The US: Republicans propose further sanctions on Nord Stream 2
On 09 November, Republicans from the US Senate brought forth legislation that would essentially impose sanctions on Russian Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Their argument is built on fears of losing the regional allies of the US like Ukraine. Ohio Senator Rob Portman said: "(the sanctions are) crucial to supporting European independence and energy security." This proposal is expected to be an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The passing of the same would compel the US President Joe Biden to impose a new set of sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG. Earlier this year, sanctions imposed on the pipeline were waived by Biden after he agreed to a deal with Germany's Angela Merkel. The pipeline has been completed and awaits approval in order to begin full-fledged gas transits from Russia to Germany. ("Nord Stream 2: US Republicans urge sanctions," Deutsche Welle, 09 November 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #06, 08 November 2021, Monday

The resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe: Three issues

Priest in Georgia advocates LGBT rights; Trapani accepts migrants off Sea-Eye 4; 70' Ndragheta members convicted; Poles protests against coal production and restrictive abortion law; Alleged migrants flee after emergency plane-landing in Mallorca

Photo : REUTERS/Tatyana Makeyeva


IN FOCUS  
By Padmashree Anandhan

The resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

On 04 November, the officials of WHO reported a resurgence of new COVID-19 cases in Europe. It expects the count to hit a record of half a million in the coming three months. According to the WHO director Dr Hans Kluge: "We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence, Europe is back at the epicenter of the pandemic where we were one year ago." Out of the total new cases reported across the world, Europe accounts for 59 percent, comprising 1.8 million cases. The reason behind the surge is believed to be the spread of the Delta variant affecting individuals of all age groups. Eastern European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland have been the most affected in the region with a spike in deaths. While tracing the spread of infection, it was prevalent in countries that had low vaccination rates and those fully vaccinated such as Italy.

Government measures
Italy which has the highest vaccination rate of 72 percent has also seen the emergence of new cases in its unvaccinated residents. It has imposed severe rules to vaccinate the remaining and mainly the worker population. One such rule is the "Green Pass" which is a QR code to confirm an individual's vaccination and negative status. Individuals need to show this at restaurants, cinemas, gyms, and trains.

This has provoked anti-vaccine protests in the city of Trieste. According to one of the protestors, "the health pass sidelined the unvaccinated from the country's workforce and rendered vaccine skeptics socially dead." They have warned the government that on the continuity of such rules the anti-health pass movement would spread everywhere.

In Hungary, the infection rate has multiplied in the past weeks. The government has mandated vaccination at the state institutions, urging people to get vaccinated. It has also asked the private companies to necessitate its workers to get jabbed. But there are no new laws or measures to meet the immediate rise in the cases.

In the cases of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, all of them have stiffened the restrictions on mask-wearing, showing of vaccination certificates in the public spaces, and testing of children in schools where cases are peaking. Poland, along with the above rules, has also limited the seating capacity in theatres to 75 percent.

Three issues
First, there is a lack in taking a unified action across the region to close the difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated populations. Till now, only 47 percent of people count as fully-vaccinated. The authorities need to speed up and expand their vaccinations in countries with low vaccination rates to avoid mistrust or dissatisfaction in certain groups of people. Larger the difference, the larger the scope for protests and increase in cases.

Second, easing of restrictions in the public spaces. Social measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, frequent testing, and inoculation need to be in place as a preventive measure and cannot be eased – essentially, neglecting the presence of the virus. This was the case in the Netherlands and Denmark, which did not consider the infection to be critical. Such negligence needs to stop.

Third, the mandate of COVID-19 passports. These were implemented to boost the intake of vaccines. But the follow-up of this rule has been poor. Taking Slovenia as an example, it is one of the least vaccinated members of the EU. The rule of the COVID-19 passport worked well in the initial stages as it increased the vaccination rate. Once the constitutional court ruled out the COVID-19 pass for public sector workers, the execution of the rule became irregular, and inspection no more effective. However, in Italy and France, where the rule is followed strictly, it has led to anti-vax protests.

The situation inside Europe is becoming more challenging and complex to counter the virus spread as the difference widens among the countries in administering the pandemic proactively.

References

"Covid: WHO warns Europe once again at epicentre of pandemic," BBC, 06 November 2021.

"Statement – Update on COVID-19: Europe and central Asia again at the epicentre of the pandemic," World Health Organization, 04 November 2021.

Paul Kirby, "Covid passes set to stay as Europe heads for winter," BBC, 28 October 2021.

Jason Horowitz, "Center of Italy's Anti-Vaccine Protests Is Now a Covid Hot Spot," The New York Times, 07 November 2021.


IN BRIEF 
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

GEORGIA
Conservative priest advocates for LGBT rights
Bishop Malkhaz Songulashvili, a Baptist priest in Tbilisi, has been fighting for LGBT rights. He is a professor of comparative theology and religious ethics and is the leader of Georgia's Evangelical-Baptist Church. He was the Archbishop of Georgia's Baptist Church until he was forced to resign due to his support for gays and marginalized Muslim groups. His Peace church has been lobbying for the community in conservative Georgia. His congregation marched in support of the LGBT community when they faced violent protests and attacks in July, and also provided for the rent of transgender women during the pandemic. He mentioned that the church had lost donors owing to the open support for the community. However, he believes that the injustice against the community must be addressed politically, culturally, and even religiously. Despite a loss in donors, the church continues to operate its social projects and helps immigrants, internally displaced people, and others in need. He believes that anyone could change their views and help overcome injustice. (Emil Filtenborg and Stefan Weichert, "Meet the baptist priest fighting for LGBT rights in conservative Georgia," Euronews, 04 November 2021)

ITALY
More than 800 people were rescued from the Mediterranean 
Following days of waiting in the central Mediterranean, a boat carrying more than 800 migrants including 200 minors and five pregnant women was allowed to dock at Trapani, off the Sicilian coast. The ship was allowed to dock after rejections from Lampedusa and Malta. The German rescue vessel was granted permission to dock after a fellow charity ship delivered food and blankets to the Sea-Eye 4, which was the ship carrying the migrants. Negotiations will be pursued after docking but in an effort to ensure the safety of the crew and the migrants, hospitals performed routine check-ups. The Sea-Eye charity complained about the "appalling" state of the country's inability to provide for assistance. Another boat is set to arrive in Italy carrying over 314 migrants. ("Italy: 800 migrants on board German rescue ship reach Sicilian port," Deutsche Welle, 08 November 2021)

Organized Crime: 70 'Ndragheta members pronounced guilty
On 06 November, Judge Claudio Paris condemned 70 members of the' Ndragheta, a prominent Italian mafia group. In the first stage of a massive trial, dubbed the 'maxi trial' which attempts to confront organized crime, 355 suspects are expected to be judged in the custom-built courtroom of Lamezia Terme, Calabria. Six of those convicted have been given 20-year sentences. These suspects have been charged with attempted murder, money laundering, usury, drug-dealing, extortion, and illegal weapons possession. The' Ndragheta had replaced Italy's Cosa Nostra, as the wealthiest and most influential mafia group, after Cosa Nostra was afflicted by a similar 'maxi trial' from 1986-1987. According to court officials, the current trial is speculated to last 2 years, maybe longer. ("Italy convicts first 70 'ndrangheta members in massive Mafia trial," Deutsche Welle, 07 November 2021; "Italian 'maxi trial' results in conviction of 70' Ndrangheta suspects," The Guardian, 06 November 2021)

POLAND
Miners protest against plans to phase out coal production
Around 200 miners demonstrated outside the European Commission building in Warsaw, arguing that scheduled coal mine closures will result in job losses and higher fuel prices. The Polish government offered the phase-out as part of its efforts to tackle global warming. Many citizens state that Polish electricity must continue to come from coal. Janusk Kowalski, MP from Poland in the Solidarity party affirmed that the citizens will not tolerate a drastic increase in energy prices. A petition has been handed over to the European Commission by the protestors. (Richard Good, "Miners protest in Warsaw against Polish government's plans to phase out coal production," Euronews, 06 November 2021)

Health Ministry responds after protests against abortion law
On 07 November, the Polish Health Ministry released a statement that effectively brought modifications to the previous guidelines on when abortion was legal. It read: "It should be strongly emphasized that physicians must not be afraid to make obvious decisions, based on their experience and available medical knowledge." The statement followed nationwide protests on 06 November, as protesters gathered against the 'restrictive abortion law' which had caused the death of a 30-year-old pregnant woman. The doctors who denied the termination have been suspended as the probe into the same continues. The 2020 Constitutional Court ruling tightened the abortion law, providing the only ground for the legal termination of pregnancy to be when the life of the mother was being risked. (Amanda Rivkin, "Poland's Health Ministry revisits abortion guidelines after protests," Deutsche Welle, 07 November 2021; "Poles march against abortion ban after pregnant woman's death," BBC, 06 November 2021) 

SPAIN
Suspicions of illegal migration after individuals flee post-emergency landing
12 individuals were arrested by police in Mallorca after fleeing a plane that had made an emergency landing. The landing is suspected to have been an attempt by the 12 Moroccans to illegally enter Spain. Those in suspicion include nine people who illegally exited the plane, a passenger who claimed to be sick, the passenger's companion, and a passenger who was jailed for fighting with a plane official. 23 passengers are thought to have exited the plane in total when an ambulance was called to carry off an apparently ill passenger. The runways of the airport were then closed before some of them were caught. At least eleven migrants are still believed to be on the loose. They have all been accused of facilitating illegal immigrants to enter the country. (Daniel Bellamy, "More than 20 suspected migrants flee from plane after it lands in Mallorca," Euronews, 06 November 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #03, 05 November 2021, Friday

The UK-France fishing rights row

EU military mission to Bosnia extended; Probe into tweets alleging Erdogan's death; EU-funded anti-discrimination campaign promoting hijabs sparks outrage; The UK approves first COVID-19 pill; Portugal President calls for snap elections

Photo : DW


IN FOCUS 
By Vaishnavi Iyer

France-UK fishing row: Pangs of Brexit

A dispute has developed between the UK and France concerning post-Brexit fishing rights, with France warning that if the dispute remains unaddressed, British boats will be barred from docking. These fishing rights were, in fact, one of the principal issues in the EU-UK post-Brexit negotiations late last year. Paris had responded to the UK's refusal to grant licenses by imposing checks on cross-Channel trade and pressurizing the UK's energy supply in an effort to persuade them into granting permits. Jersey was expected to continue working "closely" with the French, the UK, and the EU Commission to "ensure that vessels which are entitled to a permanent license can receive one and can continue fishing in Jersey's territorial waters under their historic track record." 

In an attempt to de-escalate the row, Jersey awarded an additional 49 licenses to French vessels. However, at the G20 summit, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that Britain had to capitulate first or face "retaliation." However, on 01 November, Macron withdrew his threat to block UK exports and ban fisheries. Discussions resumed after he lifted threats and insisted on further communication to resolve the problem. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesperson indicated that British retaliation would be triggered through a "dispute mechanism." The European Commission met with officials from the United Kingdom, Jersey, and France to seek an agreement on the dispute. The Jersey Fishermen's Association (JFA) demanded a six-week ban on dredging and trawling and closing the whelk and scallop fisheries to French boats. On 04 November, the UK's Brexit secretary David Frost met the Secretary of State for European Affairs Clément Beaune in Paris to discuss the resolution of the crisis.

Beaune stated: "...in the next eight days or so, we will announce response measures, retaliation measures, if necessary, national or European, if we do not have concrete British signals on the issue of licences." France furthered its threat by warning to cut electricity supplies to Jersey and extend retaliation to the financial and research sectors.

What is the row about?

After becoming an "independent coast state" in 2020, Britain began demanding access to shared fishing grounds with the EU in a greater capacity. The bloc has, however, resisted the request. Brexit negotiations before January 2021 overlooked fishing rights ascertaining "other aspects of trade are simply much more important for the economies of both the UK and the EU."

The dispute was furthered by the French accusation of Britain granting lesser fishing licenses than stated. French Maritime Minister Annick Girardin tweeted: "The figure of 98 per cent of licenses granted by the UK to Europeans is wrong. Only 90.3 per cent were. Obviously, the missing 10 per cent are for the French." The post-Brexit agreement provided for European fishermen to continue operating in British waters provided they proved they were "fishing there before." Disputed fishing zones exist between the six to 12 miles off the Channel Islands and the British Coast. London and Jersey have granted 200 licenses, with the French demanding 44 more. "This is not a French problem... It is a European problem," Beaune said. France is mobilizing support from its European partners, especially Belgium and Ireland, who are concerned over the same issue. 

France insists that all provisions within the Trade and Cooperation Agreement should ideally be met. Article 497 of the agreement states the Party must communicate in "sufficient time" list of vessels that wish to obtain authorisations and that the other Party would issue authorisations to fish. However, France contests the UK requirement of "proof of geolocation for vessels under 12 meters" stating that the provisions are not under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. 

What's the future?

France ascertains that the fleets seeking permission are small-scale fishing boats dependent on maritime zones. The fleets offer no possibility of any breaches, and the lack of permissions heavily affects their socio-economic future. Both countries met to reach a compromise with the British government spokesperson stating that discussions covered difficulties from the past agreements between the EU and the UK. They are said to have communicated their "positions and concerns." Further talks are set to take place next week. It seems that both the UK and France are unlikely to attain an early compromise given the AUKUS concerns. Moreover, Britain has stated that the retaliation would not be direct, but through other measures, in case the UK has to secede to French demands. 

References

"UK-France fishing row talks set to continue in the coming days," Euronews, 04 November 2021.

Marie Jackson, "Fishing row: France-UK talks' useful and positive'," BBC, 04 November 2021.

"Why Britain and France can't stop fighting about fish," POLITICO, 02 November 2021.
 


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
UNSC extends European military mission mandate in Bosnia
On 03 November, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) extended the mandate of the EU's military mission to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The UNSC vote came amidst rising speculation of separatist tendencies triggered by Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik. Overcoming the disagreements offered by a report suggesting a secession possibility in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the decision was arrived at unanimously. The UN's top envoy to Bosnia Christian Schmidt was prohibited by Russia from presenting a report on Bosnia-Herzegovina facing an 'existential threat' due to the increasing separatist threats. Russia commented on his report stating that it was an "extreme (ly) biased and anti-Serb document". The existence of a high representative post to Bosnia is also rejected by Russia. In response to such comments, France's UN ambassador Nicolas de Riviere highlighted the importance of the post, saying: "(it was an) essential role in support of Bosnia and Herzegovina." ("UN renews EU Bosnia military mission as separatism fears grow," Deutsche Welle, 04 November 2021)

PORTUGAL
President announces 30 January snap elections 
On 04 November, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the decision to conduct snap elections on 30 January 2022. Over a televised broadcast, de Sousa said: "In moments like this, we need a solution without fear and without making a drama... This is the only way for the Portuguese people to choose what they want in the coming years." The call for snap election follows the failure of the 2022 budget proposal put forth by the Prime Minister Antonio Costa's government – an event unseen for many decades. The budget was rejected by a rare coming together of the Communist Party and the larger Left Bloc. The elections were announced after de Sousa consulted with the parties and his Council of State. (Paul Ames, "Portugal heads for snap election in January," POLITICO, 04 November 2021; Alison Roberts, "Portugal's president calls snap election," BBC, 04 November 2021)

TURKEY
Legal proceedings against 30 for tweets on Erdogan's death
On 03 November, an 'olmus' hashtag concerning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trended on the country's Twitter. The hashtag which roughly translates to 'is said to be dead,' triggered the authorities as they launched investigations into the 30 people who used this hashtag. A police statement declared the offenders to be accused of spreading 'disinformation and manipulative content' as well as of insulting the President. Lately, concerns regarding Erdogan's health have increased. His aides intend to dull down such speculation by releasing videos that show the President in the prime of his health - sometimes walking quite quickly, otherwise playing basketball. The latest round of speculations is expected to have risen due to Erdogan finding it difficult to walk in a video released on 29 November. He had also cancelled his trip to the Glasgow Summit claiming to have had security concerns. ("Turkey probes 30 for Twitter posts suggesting Erdogan died," Deutsche Welle, 03 November 2021; "Erdogan: Turkey investigates posts about president's health," BBC, 04 November 2021)

REGIONAL
Anti-discrimination campaign on hijab promotion receives backlash
On 04 November, multiple media houses reported the severe backlash received by an EU-funded anti-discrimination campaign promoting hijabs. The posters and advertisements on the same were eventually taken down. The online campaign initiated under the supervision of the Council of Europe's (CoE) anti-discrimination division, included members from the Forum of European Muslim Youth and Student Organizations' (FEMYSO) along with other Muslim and non-Muslim groups. The campaign's content comprised of split-screen portraits and videos with women wearing hijabs on one side while the other side had women with uncovered hair and no hijabs. It also included slogans which read: "Beauty is in diversity as freedom is in hijab." In response to the outrage, the CoE's secretary-general Marija Pejcinovic Buric said: "(the campaign) reflected individual statements from people who took part in one of the project's workshops and doesn't reflect the position of the Council of Europe." The campaign was primarily criticized by France, hosting Europe's largest Muslim population, that follows a strict compliance of secularism from all religions. The campaign, however, brought together the left and right wings of French politics. Refusing to agree that the hijab symbolized freedom, far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen tweeted: "It's when women take their veil off that they become free, not the other way around." (Jack Parrock, "EU-funded hijab campaign sparks outrage," Deutsche Welle, 04 November 2021; "Hijab campaign tweets pulled by Council of Europe after French backlash," BBC, 04 November 2021)

COVID-19
The UK; First COVID-19 pill approved
On 04 November, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) announced that MSD (Merck & Co's international trade name) and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics had won the UK's authorization on a new antiviral coronavirus cure. The oral pill, molnupiravir, which will be used to tend to adults suffering from mild-to-moderate cases of COVID-19, is the first to have successfully treated the disease. Termed by the MHRA as a "safe and effective" treatment, MSD's application for an 'emergency use authorization' for the pill is also under review at the US Food and Drug Administration. Announcing the approval, the UK's Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: "... we have become the first country in the world to approve an antiviral for COVID-19… (it is a) historic day for our country." ("COVID: UK greenlights Merck antiviral pill," Deutsche Welle, 04 November 2021; Douglas Busvine, "UK approves first pill to treat COVID-19," POLITICO, 04 November 2021


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #29, 03 November 2021, Wednesday

France and Australia: Continuing AUKUS echo 

Dodik threatens Bosnian separation; Poland holds silent protests against abortion law; Satellite images Russian military buildup seen close to Ukrainian borders;

Photo : Reuters/BBC


IN FOCUS 
By Padmashree Anandhan

France and Australia: Continuing AUKUS echo
On 1 November, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison of purposefully deceiving France over the AUKUS pact with the US and Britain. Recent strife has begun between the two due to the leak of a text message from President Macron. Earlier Australia, which was in contract with France to buy French diesel-electric submarines, called off the deal, creating tensions between the two. Morrison denied by saying that "he had explained to the French president that conventional submarines would no longer meet Australia's needs." Adding along, the Australian Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce stated: "It was a contract, contracts have terms and conditions, and one of those terms and conditions and propositions is that you might get out of the contract." On the other hand, US President Joe Biden stated that "the handling of the new pact had been "clumsy, "adding that he had thought France had been informed of the contract cancellation before the pact was announced."

A contract with Australia to supply 12 conventionally powered submarines was a massive deal worth USD 90 billion for France. Calling of the deal means a hit on its finances and economy. While the contract was blown out for France, Australia striking a similar deal with the US and the UK for more advanced technology means a backlash to its diplomatic relations. Finally, now that Australia has rejected the contract with the French for the conventional diesel-powered submarines, the percentage of States interested in the technology will reduce. This means a loss of market for the French-produced submarines.

The question of whether France has a possibility of abandoning the submarine deal with Australia or signing another deal with AUKUS members is still uncertain as the tensions build. Recently at the Paris G20 summit, Prime Minister Morrison has said that the steps to stabilize the relations have already started. According to the Australian foreign minister who met the French ambassador to initiate calming of relations. These efforts were said to have been dented by senior members of the government who played down the significance of Australia's decision. As far as France it strives for an alternative deal or action to fix the rift with the Australian government, but it will remain uncertain until there are some actual developments or exchanges take place between the states.

References

"France's Macron says Australia PM lied over submarine deal," Reuters, 1 November 2021.

Daniel Hurst, "Why is Emmanuel Macron so upset with Scott Morrison?" The Guardian, 1 November 2021.
 


IN BRIEF   
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Dodik threatens Bosnian separation
Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik has threatened to cut Serb territory off from national institutions like the tax authority, the pharmaceuticals agency, and, most importantly, the military forces.Although it would not be considered secession, the resurgence of an ethnic Serb army is a terrifying prospect for many Bosnians. This would imply the further weakening of the already weak national government. Dodik's proposals, according to the International High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt, are an "existential threat" to the country. The Serb leader stated that he did not recognize the High Representative and remained indifferent to the prospects of division and conflict. The decision by Dodik is not surprising for Bosnians as it follows a decade-long series of threats to the Bosnian integrity. (Guy Delauney, "Bosnian leader stokes fears of Balkan breakup," BBC, 03 November 2021)

THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Coalition talks reach agreement
On 02 November, center-right party alliance Spolu's (Together) leader Petr Fiala confirmed that the coalition parties had reached an agreement on talks. According to him, the majority coalition government is expected to ratify the said agreement on 08 November when the new parliament would be in session. Fiala, predicted to be the next Czech prime minister, stated that he would meet the ailing President Milos Zeman once he recovered. Zeman has been hospitalized for over a month, and his inability to carry out duties implies that the Prime Minister and speakers of both the houses of parliament take de facto charge. Commenting on the 12-hour long talks, Fiala said: "We have gone through a long, whole day, but also successful negotiations." ("Czech parties reach agreement on coalition government," Deutsche Welle, 02 November 2021)

POLAND
Poland holds silent protests against abortion law
On 01 November, a predominantly Roman Catholic Poland saw silent protests in Krakow, Warsaw, and Gdansk against the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling on an apparent abortion ban. The protests erupted after a family lawyer attributed the death of a 30-year-old woman to the stricter abortion regulations. According to the ruling, abortion would be permissible only in circumstances of rape or incest, or when the mother's health or life was in danger. The family's lawyer had contended that the tighter limits meant doctors took too long to intervene. Citing the same, the lawyer alleged that the woman's death was a consequence of medical experts fearing the termination of pregnancy. The doctors delayed the operation and waited for the foetus to die. The hospital staff adamantly responded that their decisions were in the interest of the foetus and the mother, and that the law had no effect on the same. The conservative legal organisation Ordo Iuris and other pro-government commentators also highlighted that termination of pregnancy was allowed legally under this circumstance. ("Polish abortion law protests over woman's hospital death," BBC, 03 November 2021)

REGIONAL
Satellite images Russian military buildup seen close to Ukrainian borders
On 01 November, satellite images released approve recent reports of Russia gathering troops near the Ukrainian borders. Armored units, tanks and self-propelled artillery are part of the military buildup near the Russian town of Yelnya, which borders Belarus. Jane's satellite imagery analysis states that Russia's 4th Tank Division has shifted its equipment closer to Bryansk and Kursk, near Ukraine's northern border. The report comes in the background of months of increasing tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine's bid to a NATO membership and Putin's denial regarding the same. Speaking on the issue, French MEP and Head of the Security and Defense subcommittee Nathalie Loiseau said: "There are different ways with which Russia is interfering with our neighbours, and indeed we are extremely concerned… You will always have Europeans seeing the Russian threat as a very immediate threat for our continent." (Betsy Woodruff Swan and Paul Mcleary, "Satellite images show new Russian military buildup near Ukraine," POLITICO, 01 November 2021)

GENDER
International Handball Federation changes women's uniform rules 
On 01 November, the International Handball Federation (IHF) reformed its rules regarding women's uniforms. During July's European championship, the European Handball Federation had fined Norway's female beach handball team an amount of EUR 1,500 for being "improperly dressed," as they wore shorts instead of the prescribed bikini bottoms. This move was widely protested by players and European lawmakers from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden as they called on the IHF to reform its rules "in accordance with gender equality". The new rules state: "Female athletes must wear tight pants with a close fit." It also allows them to wear "short tight pants" instead of bikinis. Despite the changes, the rules fail to abide by the International Olympic Committee directives to not overly sexualize female athletes. ("Handball federation changes rules following women's bikini scandal," Deutsche Welle, 01 November 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #28, 02 November 2021, Tuesday

North Macedonia: Four reasons why the PM stepped down after a local election

Belarusian officials accused of 'crimes against humanity' by human rights organizations; EU, France, and the UK attempt to reach a compromise on the fishing row; Greece: Migrant ship finally allowed to dock at an Aegean island

Photo : AP/FinancialTimes


IN FOCUS  
By Padmashree Anandhan

North Macedonia: Four reasons why the PM stepped down after a local election
On 31 October, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia Zoran Zaev resigned early after the defeat of his Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) in the local elections. He stated: "I take responsibility for these developments. I resign from the post of prime minister and party president." In the local elections, the opposition party VMRO-DPMNE won 80 municipalities while SDSM got only 20. Many people refrained from voting as there was no confidence in either of the candidates. There are larger factors that went down for the SDSM's leader in the recent elections, as it won the opposition by a huge margin in 2014. 

First, the top officials have been exiting the party since Zaev became the leader in 2013 due to internal clashes. It is said that the intra-party division and the failure of the leader to balance the interests has led to the exit of essential party members.

Second, the EU membership. Since 2017, Zaev's efforts to lead the government towards achieving NATO and EU membership helped resolve Greece's problem and became the 30th member of NATO. However, due to France's and Bulgaria's rejection, the membership of North Macedonia to the EU was denied. At the same time, the French vetoed, highlighting the issues in economic policy, human rights, anti-corruption measures, and the rule of law. The Bulgarians vetoed North Macedonia due to its discrimination against ethnic Bulgarians.

Third, the handling of the economy and COVID. According to the World Bank, the projected growth rate is set to rebound faster than expected but in terms of youth employment and economic transformation, it lags way beyond.

Fourth, the role of SDSM mayors. They did not improve social infrastructure, traffic management, water supplies, and sewage treatment. As a result, the party slowly lost its goodwill from its voters for the above reasons and has risked the region entering a political crisis. 

References

"North Macedonia Prime Minister Zoran Zaev resigns," Deutsche Welle, 31 October 2021

"North Macedonia: PM Zoran Zaev, the man who went 'all in' is all out," Deutsche Welle, 1 November 2021


IN BRIEF   
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

GERMANY
Belarusian officials accused of 'crimes against humanity' by human rights organizations
On 01 November, six Belarusian security service members saw complaints filed against them accusing them of crimes against humanity. The complaint was filed in Germany by two human rights organizations - The World Organization Against Torture (OMCT) in Geneva and the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR) in Berlin. Germany's principle of universal jurisdiction led to the complaint of crimes against humanity being filed in the country. The organizations blamed the Belarusian officials for conducting 'mass detentions, torture, disappearances, sexual violence, and political persecution.' The OMCT Secretary-General Gerald Staber stated: "There is clear evidence that torture was used intentionally and that it was widespread and systematic, thus reaching the threshold of crimes against humanity." The joint statement released also commented on the "worldwide phenomena, in which authoritarian states work to restrict the public realm of civic action." (Alex Berry, "Germany: Human rights groups file complaint against Belarusian officials," Deutsche Welle, 01 November 2021)

ITALY

Anguillara Veneta: Town grants Bolsonaro' honorary citizenship'
On 01 November, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro visited the Italian town of Anguillara Veneta. During a ceremony in the northern Italian town, Bolsonaro was granted honorary citizenship by the town's mayor Alessandra Buoso. Bolsonaro is said to be descended from the town. According to ANSA, the President expressed his gratitude and joy in attending the ceremony hosted by the town. Despite being received by supporters, around 200 protesters also turned up at the event with banners reading 'No citizenship for dictators' and 'Anguillara loves Brazil but not Bolsonaro.' Speaking to AFP, city councilor Antonio Spada said: "It's okay for him to visit the city where his family comes from, but not for him to be presented as a role model, granting him honorary citizenship." Buoso, however, stood by the decision claiming that the recognition was an acknowledgment of the Italians who had emigrated to Brazil and not a vote of confidence on Bolsonaro's political decisions. Bolsonaro had visited the town after participating in the G20 summit hosted by Rome. ("Brazil's Bolsonaro attends honors ceremony in Italy amid protests," Deutsche Welle, 01 November 2021; Angela Giuffrida, "Jair Bolsonaro booed and cheered as he is honoured by Italian town," The Guardian, 01 November 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM

Yorkshire sees "rare treat" with Northern Lights 
On 30 November, the Yorkshire coast witnessed a rare Aurora Borealis treat in Scarborough. Aurora Borealis, a phenomenon when atoms in Earth's high altitudes collide with energy particles from the sun, is a mix of green and purple haze. The spectacular weather phenomena were recorded in several parts of the US, Canada, and further north in Saltburn and Bamburgh, Northumberland. The geomagnetic storm was strong enough to push the rare phenomenon far into the south. ("Northern Lights: 'Rare treat' as phenomenon seen from Yorkshire coast," BBC, 02 November 2021)

REGIONAL

EU, France, and the UK attempt to reach compromise on the fishing row
In an apparent attempt to de-escalate a post-Brexit fight over fishing rights in which the UK and France have made counter threats, Jersey awarded an additional 49 licenses to French vessels. French President Emmanuel Macron first declared at a post-G20 news conference that Britain had to capitulate or face retaliation this week. However, on 01 November, Macron withdrew his threat to block UK exports and ban fisheries. Discussions resumed after he lifted threats and insisted on further communication to resolve the problem. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesperson indicated that British retaliation would be triggered through a "dispute mechanism." The European Commission held meetings with officials from the UK, Jersey, and France to find a compromise over the issue. The Jersey Fishermen's Association (JFA) called for banning dredging and trawling along with closing off of the whelk and scallop fisheries to French boats. The ban has been requested "with immediate effect for a period of six weeks." UK's Brexit secretary David Frost is expected to meet the French minister for EU affairs Clément Beaune in Paris on 04 November to discuss the resolution of the crisis. (Daniel Boffey, Rowena Mason and Jamie Grierson, "Macron steps back from midnight threat against UK exports in fishing row," The Guardian, 01 November 2021; Jamie Grierson and Rowena Mason, "Jersey issues 49 more fishing licences to French boats amid row," The Guardian, 01 November 2021)

MIGRATION

Greece: Migrant ship finally allowed to dock at an Aegean island
On 31 October, the Murat 729, a Turkish ship harboring around 400 passengers - mostly Afghans, was allowed to dock at a Greek island. On 29 October, the ship had sent a distress signal after its engines failed. The Greek and Turkish authorities refused to allow docking of the ship in their territory. Greece appealed to the European Commission, asking them to hold Turkey accountable to the 2016 accord with the bloc. They held negotiations with Turkey regarding the fate of the vessel. Greece eventually budged, and the Aegean port of Kos saw around 375 passengers disembarking the ship in an attempt to apply for asylum. Greece's minister for migration and asylum policy, Notis Mitarachi said: "We have notified the EU that Turkey has refused to take their vessel back. Unlike Turkey and others that ignored the problem, Greece stepped up… But Greece cannot solve the migration crisis alone." Called "an unusual and special case" by Greece's migration ministry, the cargo ship was a Turkish-flagged vessel. (Helena Smith, "Greece lets boat packed with Afghan refugees dock after four days at sea," The Guardian, 31 October 2021; "Turkish ship carrying Afghan migrants towed to Greek port," Deutsche Welle, 31 October 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Tesla announces superchargers for other electric cars
Announcing a pilot programme in the Netherlands, Tesla has opened up superchargers for other electric vehicles. It announced testing stations available at 10 locations around the Netherlands. Non-Tesla electric vehicles would be able to access Tesla stations through the Tesla app. Due to extra site adjustments and accommodation costs, non-Tesla drivers may have to avail the services at an extra price. Tesla uses the Combined Charging System (CCS) standard in Europe, allowing a wide range of cars to charge in stations without an adapter that uses a similar connector. Superchargers can be used by BMW, Daimler, Volkswagen, and Ford - all of which use the CCS standard. ("Tesla opens Superchargers to other electric cars for first time," The Guardian, 02 November 2021; Alistair Charlton, "Tesla Superchargers Can Now Be Used By Other Electric Cars: Here Is How It Works," Forbes, 01 November 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Steel dispute resolved over new tariff agreements between EU and US
US President Joe Biden announced a reduction in tariff rates for the EU during the G20 Summit. According to both parties, the US has agreed to lower tariffs on EU steel in exchange for reducing counter-tariffs on US goods. Motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter, and denim may become more affordable in the European Union at only 25 percent in contrast to the proposed 50 percent. The countries agreed to reverse Trump-era tariffs. The agreement would ensure only EU-made steel entering the US market against Chinese-subsidized steel, which was processed in Europe previously. Chiefs of the EU had temporarily suspended increased taxes on US products in June and now plan on taxes at a 25 percent rate. Under Trump, the EU saw special tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018, claiming to be a "threat to national security" under Article 232.

Consequently, the cost of steel in the US rose to GBP 1,643. The European Commission retaliated by placing duties on US goods due to rise before the year's end. The most recent agreement prevented the rise. To prevent the tax rises, the two parties had set a December deadline. ("US, EU settle dispute over tariffs on steel, aluminum," Deutsche Welle, 30 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #24, 29 October 2021, Friday

Spain: One month after the La Palma volcanic eruption

EU counsels Israel to stop expansion; Polish parliament to discuss banning pride parades; Spain records highest inflation rate in 29 years; Report claims Europe requires three generations to achieve gender parity;

Photo : Reuters/SusanVera


IN FOCUS 
By Joeana Cera Matthews

Spain: One month since La Palma's volcanic eruption

A volcano located on La Palma – the fifth-largest island in Spain's Canary Islands – has been active for over a month now. Canary Islands is home to the Teneguia volcano in the Cumbre Vieja national park. The last time a volcano erupted was in 1971; it was also the last time Spain witnessed a surface eruption. Considering recent developments, the protracted eruption sees no end.

Events across the past month 
On 19 September, after a week of seismic activity, the volcano erupted. Harbouring one of the most active volcanoes in the archipelago, more than 22,000 tremors of 3.8-magnitude on the Richter scale were initially measured. From the beginning, seismologists maintained that the duration of the eruption would be unpredictable since previous records read such eruptions lasting from weeks to months. On 21 September, nearly 200 people fled their homes as the erupting volcano developed a new fissure. Following this fissure, four earthquakes hit the island. On 28 September, after much speculation on whether or not the lava would reach the Atlantic Ocean, the volcanic lava entered the waters. This was followed by the Spanish government declaring La Palma as a 'disaster zone'. On 17 October, almost a month since the eruption began, 42 seismic movements were recorded with the largest one scaling a magnitude of 4.3. 

Government Response
Prior to the eruption, the government instructed people to prepare emergency kits in case of an evacuation. Soon after the eruption, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, delaying his trip to the UN summit, visited the site and promised state support to the region. The increased devastation of homes was also a matter of concern. The Islands' regional government promised two housing development purchases to provide for the homeless. Spanish banks were also providing emergency shelters. The 'disaster zone' declaration facilitated the effort to provide the financial assistance necessary for their recovery. Defence Minister Margarita Robles also visited the region and assured the support of the Spanish Navy in clearing out the volcanic ash that covered large parts of the region. On 17 October, President Angel Victor Torres, commented on the prolonged eruption: "There are no signs that an end of the eruption is imminent even though this is the greatest desire of everyone."

Local Impact: Evacuations galore and affected livelihood
Government spokesperson Isabel Rodriguez reported 7,000 of La Palma's 83,000 residents to have been evacuated and about 2,000 buildings to have suffered damages. The lava has submerged almost 800 hectares of land. On 27 September, Spanish property portal Idealista estimated the damages accounting to EUR 178 million. Experts claim that there lies a possibility of continuing damage. No fatalities have been reported. 

La Palma produces a quarter of the Canary Islands' famous bananas. Banana as a crop is a crucial economic-builder since it provides livelihood to the region's farmers. On 23 September, lava and smoke shot out of the volcano threatening the banana plantations. Several farms were affected, negatively impacting the annual banana production. One of the farmers was quoted as saying: "The volcano may not kill us directly, but it's going to make a lot of us go bankrupt." Another farmer, concerned about the prolonged eruption, said: "We don't know when it's going to stop, that's the problem. This is nature and we have to deal with it, it's bigger than us."

Impact on climate and health
On 21 September, just two days post-eruption, the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (INVOLCAN) announced that the volcano had emitted 7,997 to 10,665 tonnes of sulphur dioxide (SO2) per day into the atmosphere. This raised concerns as SO2 runs the risk of reacting with oxygen and moisture in the atmosphere to create vog (volcanic smog) as well as acid rain. The citizens were warned to avoid the ingestion of the toxic ash looming in the sky.

The biggest threat, however, was the lava reaching the Atlantic Ocean. This would trigger the chemical reaction that resulted in the creation of 'laze' – a combination of lava and haze formed through hot lava boiling in the colder seawater. According to science journalist and volcanologist Dr Robin George Andrews: "It creates a steam of hydrochloric acid, water vapour and bits of ash." Laze causes irritation of the eye, lung, and skin. Explosions were also to be expected given the "pressure-cooker-situation" created by the lava in the sea. To reduce the risk of humans being affected by the same, marine authorities closed off around two nautical miles at sea where the lava was heading, terming it an 'exclusion zone'.

Moments of Awe
A 'miracle house' had become popular across the media as it remained the sole survivor of the lava. However, on 28 September, it finally got consumed by the lava. Another moment that caught the attention of the world was when two dogs stranded in empty water tanks were rescued via a mysterious gang that termed themselves the 'A-team'. This gang had overtaken the drone operation initiated to save the animals.

References
"Spanish officials fear volcanic eruption on La Palma," Deutsche Welle, 16 September 2021.  

"Canary Islands volcano: Hundreds more evacuated as La Palma lava nears sea," BBC, 21 September 2021. 

Sam Jones, "More people in path of lava from La Palma volcano forced to flee," The Guardian, 21 September 2021. 

Nacho Doce and Marco Trujillo, "Lava, smoke and ash cover La Palma as volcano threatens banana crop," Reuters, 23 September 2021. 

Jon Nazca and Nacho Doce, "La Palma volcano spurts again as lava nears the sea," Reuters, 28 September 2021. 

"'Miracle house' engulfed as lava reaches sea off La Palma," The Guardian, 29 September 2021. 

Silvio Castellanos and Juan Medina, "Lava blocks the size of buildings falling from La Palma volcano," Reuters, 10 October 2021. 

"One month on, still 'no signs' that La Palma volcanic eruption will end soon," France24, 17 October 2021. 

"Canary Islands: Volcano eruption on La Palma destroys homes, no injuries," Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2021. 

"Drone rescue plan for dogs trapped by La Palma volcano," The Guardian, 20 October 2021. 

Guillermo Martinez, "La Palma evacuees see no end to ordeal after month of volcanic eruption," Reuters, 20 October 2021. 

Sam Jones, "Dogs trapped by La Palma eruption 'saved by mysterious gang'," The Guardian, 21 October 2021. 

"Canary Islands volcano: New vent opens, more people flee," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Padmashree Anandhan

POLAND
Warsaw refuses to pay the ECJ's daily fine of EUR one million
On 27 October, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) announced an additional fine of EUR one million on Poland. This comes in addition to the existing EUR 500,000 fine, which was imposed in relation to the Turow coal mine. Poland still has seven more cases remaining to be settled by the ECJ. The opposition criticized the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) party, stating that it was not only ruining the independence of the judiciary but doing so with Polish money. The justice minister strongly denied the possibility of the fine being paid; in fact, he advised the payment not to be made. He stated: "(the) Polish state cannot bow to lawlessness… (Poland) cannot and should not pay a single zloty." Eurosceptic Poles recommended stopping payments to the EU, but this might backfire on Poland given the fact that Poland is one of the largest recipients of the EU funds. ("Poland vows not to pay any EU court fines," Deutsche Welle, 28 October 2021)

SPAIN 
Economy: Highest inflation rate in 29 years recorded
According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), Spain has hit an inflation rate of 5.8 percent, which is its highest in 29 years. This has resulted in a surge in energy costs, prices of vehicle fuels, electricity, lubricants, and holiday packages. The government, however, assures that the price hike is only temporary while economists believe it could have an effect on the wages and root off the corporate competency. According to Funcas, a think tank, the economic growth rate of Spain is expected to fall to 5.1 from 6.3 percent. (Inti Landauro and Belén Carreño, "Energy costs push Spain's inflation to 29-year high, threatening recovery," Reuters, 28 October 2021)

REGIONAL
France: French vessels granted licensing by the UK and European Commission
The officials of France, the UK, and the European Commission met and granted licenses to 162 French vessels to fish in the territorial waters of Jersey. The operation of French boats in the UK and Jersey coastal waters has been a source of dispute for quite a while. Paris had responded to the UK's refusal to grant licenses by imposing checks on cross-Channel trade and pressurizing the UK's energy supply in an effort to persuade them into granting permits. According to the statement, Jersey is expected to continue working "closely" with the French, the UK and the EU Commission so as to "ensure that vessels which are entitled to a permanent license can receive one and can continue fishing in Jersey's territorial waters under their historic track record." ("Jersey offers 162 fishing licences after French ultimatum," BBC, 28 October 2021; Daniel Boffey and Dan Sabbagh, "UK summons French ambassador as fishing rights row escalates," The Guardian, 28 October 2021)

GENDER
Report highlights dismal gender equality rate in Europe
The Gender Equality Index published by the European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE) reported the EU to have scored 68 points out of a total 100 in 2021. The improvement in gender equality has only increased by 0.6 points over the last year. The report acknowledges the dismal growth rate stating: "it will take nearly three generations to achieve gender parity at the current pace." The slow pace in time and health has been attributed to the pandemic, which triggered economic losses for women as well as decreased life expectancy in men. An overrepresentation of women in healthcare left more women vulnerable to infections while women continue to be underrepresented in leadership positions. During the lockdown, women expected to take care of childcare and share the unequal burden of unpaid work suffered immensely. Countries leading in the Gender Index scale were Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands, scoring 83.9, 77.8, and 75.9, respectively. Germany scored above average with 68.6 points while Greece was the last among the EU states with 52.5 points. Individually, Luxembourg, Italy, and Malta made the largest gains in equality, while Slovenia regressed in 2021 along with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. ("EU is 'three generations' away from gender equality — report," Deutsche Welle, 28 October 2021) 

Poland: Parliament to discuss banning pride parades
Protests erupted over the new bill on banning pride parades, with more than 300 people gathering on the streets. The bill, originating from an outside anti-abortion rights pressure group called 'Life and Family Foundation', seeks to modify the rights of free assembly which could place Poland in further conflict with the EU. The amended right to assembly bill would entail denial of public gatherings that "question marriage as a relationship between a woman and a man" or "propagate the extension of marriage to persons of the same sex." The proposed ban is said to be a result of pride parades promoting a "sexual orientation other than heterosexual." In a speech deemed "most disgusting" by the opposing legislators from the left, right, and centre, a member from the pressure group, Krzysztof Kasprzak argued the LGBT movement to be a form of totalitarian and even equated it to Nazism. Moreover, he accused the movement of "overthrowing" the "natural order" and introducing "terror." The opposition labelled the speech to be inhumane, homophobic and in violation of the right to assemble. Given the origins, it remains unclear whether the bill is being approved or not. ("Poland: Parliament debates bill banning LGBTQ pride parades," Deutsche Welle, 28 October 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
European Commission urges developed nations to close funding target gaps
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged wealthy countries of the UN COP26 summit to bridge the shortfall in climate finance. The USD 100 billion contributions was set to be fulfilled by 2020; however, the pledge would not materialize till 2023. According to the assessment by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, developing countries would access funds to adapt to global heating both in public and private funds. The EU contributes USD 25 billion every year, with the US aiming to contribute USD 11.4 billion by 2024. Von der Leyen stated: "If you look at the global stage, Europe is the frontrunner without any question,"; nonetheless, she cautioned countries to continue working internally owing to the climate risks the world faces. Having committed to net zero emissions by 2050, von der Leyen is expected to join US President Joe Biden at the COP26 in launching an initiative to reduce methane emissions. (Jennifer Rankin," Wealthy nations urged to meet $100bn climate finance goal," BBC, 28 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 
EU countries advice Israel to stop settlement expansion 
12 European countries urged Israel to reverse its settlement expansion plan. It expects to create 3000 settlements in the disputed West Bank region. The EU's joint statement read: "We call on both parties to build on steps taken in recent months to improve cooperation and reduce tensions." The countries participating were - Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain and Sweden. ("European states urge Israel to stop settlement expansion," Reuters, 28 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #23, 28 October 2021, Thursday

The European Council Summit 2021: Key Highlights

Climate survey concludes EU citizens lack faith in governments' goals; Macron calls on Australia to rebuild 'broken' trust; France seizes UK boat amid fishing rights row;

Photo : www.consilium.europa.eu/


IN FOCUS 
By Padmashree Anandhan

The European Council Summit 2021

The European Council Summit was held from 21 to 22 October 2021. The discussion focused on several aspects from the rule of law, energy prices, the instrumentalization of migrants via hybrid warfare, the pandemic, cyber security, international trade, digital policy, as well as climate change. Apart from these debates and discussions, the summit also witnessed the bloc leaders giving a farewell to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

Key Highlights of the Summit
First, the rule of law has been a recurring issue in the Council's agenda. In the previous summit, Hungary was at the centre of attention while this time Poland took over. Developments in Warsaw raised concerns among the bloc members. Discussions regarding the controversial Polish Constitutional Tribunal ruling stating certain EU treaties were discordant with the Polish Constitution. The issue of judicial independence was also challenged by Poland. The EU leaders urged the European Commission to take necessary action in line with the rule-of-law conditionality legislation.

Second, discussion on energy prices. While countries like France and Spain expect the energy prices to hike further, the Netherlands assured that the price hike was temporary. The Prime Minister of Spain requested an analysis on price formation and monitoring speculative behaviour. Nuclear energy was not mentioned but was seen as a stable source that could be included in the green transition. Poland and Hungary used the energy price debate to call out for the "Fit for 55" package. The European Commission adopted the package to make the EU's climate, energy, land use, transport, and taxation policies fit for cutting down net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030.

Three, the debate on migration. The discussion covered various aspects such as the external dimension of migration, the non-acceptance of instrumentalizing of migrants for political purposes by third countries, and the increase in the inflow of migrants at the EU's borders. The leaders restated that such letting in of migrants across the EU borders the Belarusian regime was seen as a retaliation against EU sanctions and is intolerable. They proposed to the EU to build protective measures to respond steadfastly. 

Four, EU leaders raised concerns on the rising new coronavirus cases in the many member states and the unmatched levels of vaccination. To fill the vaccination gap, the European Council suggested fighting out disinformation, vaccine disparities across states and also emphasized the need for vaccination campaigns to tackle new variants.

Five, Digital Policy. The European Council's Digital Policy seeks for a digital transformation in Europe. Under the policy, it aims for "growth, job creation, competitiveness, and resilience." The identified threats to the digital transformation were limited production capacity, high entry costs and lack of a level playing field in semiconductors are threatening the EU's capacity in digital transformation, also in light of persisting global shortages. The Commission launched the coalition on processors and semiconductors in July 2021 and proposed European Chips Act as a step towards the digital plan.

References
"Outcome of the European Council meeting of 21-22 October 2021," European Parliament, 22 October 2021.

"European Council: As it happened," POLITICO, 20 October 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

UKRAINE
Dutch court rules for Ukraine to have control over artefacts from Crimea 
Referring to the Netherlands' appeals court ruling as a "long-awaited victory", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated: "we always return what is ours". He added that Ukraine would first "return Scythian gold" and then "return Crimea". Crimean officials have criticized the ruling as violating the right of the Crimean people to access their cultural heritage. Russian officials have also condemned the ruling. The historical treasure consists of gold, ceremonial daggers, a golden helmet, jewellery, and a Chinese lacquered box among other treasures. The return of the exhibition was sought by Crimea after lending the artifacts to Amsterdam in 2014, which later came under Russian territory following the annexation. While disputes continue over the recognition of the annexed territory, the international loan remains one of the most important billed exhibitions in Ukrainian history. (Andrew Roth, "Ukraine has legal right to Crimean artefacts, Dutch court rules," BBC, 26 October 2021)

REGIONAL
France seizes British boat amid fishing row
A British boat has been seized amid the French-UK fishing rights row. In September, the UK denied French boats fishing licenses which angered France. The rejection, according to France, is a violation of the Brexit agreement. The UK noted that blocking British boats was a violation of international law and trade agreements. It has asserted that European vessels have received 98 percent of all licence applications. France insisted on an agreement by 02 November threatening to target the Channel Island energy supplies. The UK is disappointed over the French decision while France is prepared to intensify sanctions with electricity cuts to Jersey and "target measures" which have been in effect since 26 October. Brexit minister David Frost is expecting further communication with France seeking clarification over the issue. (Joseph Lee, "Fishing rights row: French threats disappointing, says Frost," BBC, 28 October 2021) 

CLIMATE CHANGE
Survey: EIB poll reveals EU citizens' lack of faith in their governments
On 27 October, the European Investment Bank (EIB) released a climate survey which included respondents from across the bloc. The poll concluded that 58 percent of the 27,700 respondents believed that their governments would be unable to reach the climate goals they had set for themselves. In particular, they were not convinced that their governments could cut the CO2 emissions by 2050. 70 percent of the respondents believed that action at the individual level could assist emission reduction. Commenting on the survey, EIB Vice-President Ambroise Fayolle said: "In the run-up to COP26, these demands from the public are a clear mandate for us to strengthen our efforts and accelerate the green transition." The COP26 summit is set to begin on 31 October at Glasgow, Scotland. (Kate Abnett, "Most Europeans think governments will miss climate goals, poll finds," Reuters, 27 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
France: Macron calls for Australia to 'redefine' relationship
On 28 October, French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. This was the first time the leaders conversed since the AUKUS pact created diplomatic tensions between the two countries. The French President's office released a statement, post the conversation, where Macron repeated that Australia "had broken the relation of trust between the two countries". The statement also called upon Morrison's government to "propose concrete actions" in order to rebuild the lost trust. The diplomatic tensions arose after Australia chose the US' submarine-deal over its agreed deal with France — effectively cancelling out Paris from the equation. (Joseph Lee, "Australia must 'redefine' relations after submarine spat 'broke' trust, Macron says," France24, 28 October 2021)

The US condemns lack of reciprocity on staffing in Moscow Embassy
The US embassy warned Russia that its services would be cut off next year if a resolution on the visa dispute was not made. A senior US official requested that Russia make headway on boosting the number of visas available to diplomats. Russians are flocking to the US embassy in Warsaw after the US halted visa processing in Moscow. He said the embassy lacks personnel to perform fundamental functions such as issuing diplomatic cables, opening and closing embassy gates, and other operative services. After Russia limited employing Russian or third-country workers in the missions, the US lost a substantial number of people — dropping from 1,200 to 120 by 2021. Tensions between the US and Russia remain high on several fronts. ("U.S. Warns Moscow Embassy Could Stop Functioning Due to Visa Row," The Moscow Times, 28 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #22, 27 October 2021, Wednesday

Turkey: President Erdogan's Osman Kavala drama 

Italian senate blocks anti-homophobia bill; Cyclone storms cause flooding in Sicily; ECJ imposes daily penalty of EUR one million on Poland; France's Le Pen meets with Orban; the EU calls for stronger regulations on Facebook

Photo :


IN FOCUS 
By Padmashree Anandan

Turkey: President Erdogan's Osman Kavala drama 

What happened?
On 24 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directed the foreign ministry to announce the 10 ambassadors from the US, Germany, France, and other NATO allies as "persona non grata." This means removal of diplomatic status which leads to expulsion.

Erdogan said that "the embassies had taken a step back from this slander against our country and our nation. I believe these ambassadors will be more careful in their statements regarding Turkey's sovereign rights" in the future." The statement was declared by the envoys, for the release of activist Osman Kavala but upon the warning of the diplomats and analysts, President Erdogan reversed his decision. he was warned that the decision to evict the ambassadors would result in "economic disaster and rupture in NATO alliance." 

Ambassadors of the US, Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden issued a joint statement on the fourth anniversary of Kavala's imprisonment. Osman Kavala is a businessman and a philanthropist who was charged by the government for supporting the protests in 2013 known as Gezi Park Protests. Even though not convicted continues to be in prison since 2017. The questions that need to be answered are why is President Erdogan making a statement now? What were the reasons behind the sudden recall of the decision? What makes Kavala important for the leader and government? 

Behind the Turkish President's game
First, the support to the ruling party Justice and Development Party (AKP) has now fallen to 30 per cent. The percentage held by opposition marks to 40 per cent now. With the growing number of anti-Erdogan parties, it is a great concern for president Erdogan to be in power. Hence keeping the external parties deviated from the internal affairs of Turkey with the issue of Kavala was a better option.

Second, the international task force against money laundering (FATF) recently placed Turkey on its grey list due to its failure to fight money laundering and financing to terrorism. This resulted in the collapse of foreign exchange rates and the value of the Turkish Lira has descended lower than ever. Adding to the existing inflation, imports have become expensive leading to an economic crisis. This situation until lessened will be pressure and challenge to Erdogan's administration.

Third, the release of Kavala continues to be an issue between the EU and Turkey. The existing administration sees the activist as a potential to carry out a coup attempt and invoke protests in the region. This will be the last thing the party wants to deal with an economic crisis, a deteriorating image of the leader within the country, and narrowed relations with the west.

References
"Turkey moves to throw out US envoy and nine others," BBC, 24 October 2021

Carlotta Gall, "Turkish President Steps Back From Expulsions of 10 Western Diplomats," The New York Times, 25 October 2021

Selcan Hacaoglu, "Turkish Officials Seek to Avoid Expulsion of Western Envoys," Bloomberg, 25 October 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

ITALY
Climate: Catania experiences a rare Medicane
Marking the third day in a row, flooding triggered by a storm in Sicily has taken over the city of Catania. Experts believe Eastern Sicily has been hit by a unique Mediterranean hurricane called a 'Medicane'. Anthropogenic activities have caused extreme weather events this year, with forecasters issuing severe weather warnings for parts of Sicily and Calabria. The mayor allowed for essential shops to function while other businesses remained shut. The rare Medicane has claimed two lives and has led to a blackout in the city. Italy's Department for Civil Protection has warned of risk to life and property from the consequential heavy rain, thunderstorms and gale force winds. ("Catania: Two dead as rare storm floods streets of Sicilian city," BBC, 27 October 2021) 

MOLDOVA
Moldova remains positive amid gas crisis
On 25 October, Moldovan foreign minister Nicu Popescu created "history" by importing gas from Poland over Russia. The gas shipment from PGNiG was one million cubic meters. Until recently, Moldova imported 100 per cent of its gas from Russia. However, this contract expired at the end of September. Moldova has been unwilling to pay for the hiked gas prices by Gazprom. Consequently, Russia reduced gas supplies and accused Moldova of "provoking a crisis" and demanded payment of GBP 514 million of debt. Reduced supplies triggered a 30-day state emergency in Moldova. Popescu admitted to the global energy crunch affecting Moldova. He stated that the Romanian gas pipeline would serve as a "safety valve" while the country looks for other energy alternatives. Experts suspect Russia is limiting its gas supplies as a sign of its disapproval of Moldova's pro-European Union stance. (Steve Rosenberg, "
Moldova: Russia threatens gas supply in Europe's poorest state," BBC, 27 October 2021)

POLAND
ECJ imposes a daily penalty of EUR one million
On 27 October, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) instructed Poland to pay a daily fine of EUR one million to the European Commission after it ignored a previous ruling on Poland's judicial reforms. The ruling, announced in July, had called on Poland to suspend the Supreme Court's disciplinary chamber on its failure to ensure impartiality. Commenting on the fine, the ECJ said: "(the fine is) necessary in order to avoid serious and irreparable harm to the legal order of the European Union and to the values on which that Union is founded, in particular that of the rule of law." In response, the Polish government spokesperson Piotr Muller said: "The road of penalties and blackmail against our country is not the right one." ("EU fines Poland €1 million per day over judicial reforms," Deutsche Welle, 27 October 2021; Daniel Boffey, "Poland fined €1m a day over controversial judicial system changes," The Guardian, 27 October 2021) 

PORTUGAL
Parliament fails to pass 2022 state budget, triggering potential snap elections
On 27 October, the Portuguese parliament's 2022 state budget proposal got rejected with a margin of 117 votes to 108, with five abstentions. Responding to the event, Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa said: "My conscience is clear… I did all I could to make this budget work without adding anything to it that would be to the country's detriment." The rejected proposal, which underwent serious negotiations, is expected to lead to a snap election. Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had issued a warning which would call for an early election if the parliament failed to pass the budget. ("Portugal faces snap election as parliament rejects draft budget," The Guardian, 27 October 2021) 

REGIONAL
Hungary: French leader Le Pen visits Orban
On a visit to Budapest, far-right leader Marine Le Pen expressed support for Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban. She accused the European Union of "ideological brutality". Appreciating Orban's "courage" and "determination" she vowed stronger bilateral relations between Hungary and France if elected president the next year. She fondly remembered Hungarian "heroes" of the 1956 revolt against the Soviet Union. She refused to comment on the anti-LGBTQ law, but accused the EU of endangering countries' sovereignty with its ideology. She also opposed the idea that EU legislation should take precedence over national laws. She criticized the "unusually violent" threats of the EU issuing sanctions over Poland and Hungary. Previously, Hungary supported the Polish reforms of Polish national laws gaining primacy over EU laws, a move largely criticized by France. ("France's far-right leader Le Pen backs Hungary's Orban, lambasts EU," France 24, 26 October 2021)

GENDER
Italy: Anti-homophobic bill repealed by Senate
On 27 October, the Italian senate cancelled a bill that safeguarded the rights of the LGBTQIA+ community. The anti-homophobic bill aimed to classify violence against those from the LGBTQIA+ community, along with disabled people, as a hate crime. The debate on the bill was blocked after a showdown of 154 to 131 votes. A member of the Democratic Party (PD) of the European Parliament Pina Picierno stated: "one of the worst pages in the history of the Italian republic." Those of the far-right, who refused to accept the bill, claimed that the law would infringe upon one's right to freedom of expression while propagating "homosexual propaganda". (Lorenzo Tondo, "'Disgraceful': Italy's senate votes down anti-homophobic violence bill," The Guardian, 27 October 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 
EU demands stronger regulations against Facebook
Margrethe Vestager, European Competition Commissioner demanded stringent actions against Facebook. The anti-trust official urged democracies to "stand together" against the tech giant. She admitted legal action could take time but requested urgent measures to curb any future damage. She insisted on stronger regulations over how Facebook runs its platforms, which not only has immense influence on the mental health of the users but also on the development of democracies. She referred to the EU legislation of balancing freedom of speech and posts online that incite violence. Acknowledging Facebook's security concerns, she hoped the new regulations allow for smaller businesses to avail markets and for Facebook to take responsibility for the harm caused. (Elizabeth Schumacher, "EU antitrust official Vestager: We must act now against Facebook," Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #21, 26 October 2021, Tuesday

Italy: The Matteo Salvini trial 

Poland-EU rift continues; Erdogan reverses ‘persona non grata’ decision; Macron and the EU denounce Sudan coup attempt; Austrian government to legalize assisted suicide; 

Photo : BBC


IN FOCUS 
By Vaishnavi Iyer 
Italy: Ex-interior minister on trial for denying docking of humanitarian ship

Matteo Salvini, Italy's former hardliner interior minister, is on trial for refusing to allow a migrant rescue ship to dock in August 2019. The leader of Italy's right-wing League party is accused of abducting 147 migrants stranded on the humanitarian ship Open Arms. For 18 days, the migrants were stranded on the boat. The ship carried twenty-three civilians, a Spanish NGO called Open Arms, and nine migrants. The indictment of Salvini was made possible by a Senate vote that removed the former minister's parliamentary immunity, allowing for a trial. If convicted, he may face up to 15 years in prison. Actor Richard Gere was onboard the ship and has agreed to appear as a witness. Luciana Lamorgese, Salvini's successor, and Luigi di Maio, the current foreign minister, are among the other witnesses. Guiseppe Conte has been called as a witness in the trial by Salvini. To add to his defence, Salvini's argument in keeping migrants in Catania had previously been dismissed. However, the prosecution has rejected this, claiming that Salvini's actions in Catania were justified by government policy.

Activists are hopeful that the court case will create a legal precedent that will serve as a deterrent to nations that obstruct search-and-rescue activities in the Mediterranean. The trial might have enormous ramifications for Italian politics, either putting an end to Salvini's political career or providing a platform for him to reverse a polling fall and fend off far-right competitors.

Response from the defence and prosecution 
Salvini responded that he was “protecting the country”. He attributed his efforts to decline docking the ship to his “closed ports” policy. He tweeted defending that it was the “sacred duty” of every citizen. “I’m going on trial for this, for having defended my country? I’ll go with my head held high”. "Now tell me how serious a trial is if Richard Gere comes from Hollywood to testify on how bad I am," he said. He condemned the trial, saying it was wanted by the left and supporters of illegal immigration. "You tell me how serious a trial it is," Salvini said outside the courthouse, "where Richard Gere will come from Hollywood to testify against my nastiness." ""I hope it lasts as short a time as possible because there are more important things to take care of.”

Prosecution has accused Salvini of abuse of power, dereliction of duty and kidnapping of the migrants even as the conditions on board worsened. The stated: “international conventions governing maritime rescue and, more generally, the protection of human life” were violated by Salvini. The minister also ignored orders from the PM’s office directing him to allow disembarking of the ship. 

What does this mean for Italian politics and Salvini’s future?
First, the trial has not attracted much attention to the issue or Salvini’s popularity. The public seems fatigued with an incident that happened two years ago. This also reflects Salvini’s declining standing. After hoping to trigger a snap election, Salvini’s leadership is in crisis after being taken over by another far right wing - Brothers of Italy. Only in the event of a non-guilty verdict would Salvini be able to redeem his political fortunes. 

Second, discussion of EU’s migration policies. Both Open Arms and Salvini have spoken against harsh EU migration policy ahead of the proceedings. While Salvini appealed to the larger public sentiment of anti-immigration, Open Arms condemned the “deadly” EU migration policy that has cost many innocent lives in the Mediterranean. The minister also appealed to the larger audience that feels “abandoned” by the EU and described humanitarian rescue ships as encouraging migrant traffickers in North Africa. More than 1 million refugees have entered Europe since 2015. The EU has entered into a pact with Turkey to limit migration and has called upon France to regulate entry at the English Channel. More attempts seem to be made to curb and limit migration than address the consequences of migration. Thus, the trial will serve a larger purpose of discussing policy implications and state response to migration. 

References

Miriam Berger, “Italy’s ex-interior minister is on trial for blocking a migrant boat from docking. Actor Richard Gere is a witness,” The Washington Post, 24 October 2021.

Angela Giuffrida, “Matteo Salvini objects to Richard Gere as witness in kidnap trial,” The Guardian, 23 October 2021.

Salvini’s moment has passed: Fading right-wing champion on trial for blocking migrants at sea,” France 24, 23 October 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandan

AUSTRIA
Government set to legalize assisted suicides
On 23 October, the Austrian federal chancellery released a statement announcing the government’s submission of a draft law that would legalize assisted suicide for terminally ill adults. Last December, a Constitutional Court ruling had suggested that it was unconstitutional to ban assisted suicide since it violated a person’s right to self-determination. The statement issued by the chancellery read: “Seriously ill people should have access to assisted suicide.” According to the proposed law, the patient would require attestations from two consulting doctors, approving the decision-making capability of the patient. (“Austrian government proposes law to legalise assisted suicide,” Reuters, 23 October 2021) 

GERMANY
Risky playgrounds to raise kids to face the real-world
On 24 October, The Guardian reported the case of playgrounds in Germany being built to let children learn from their falls, assisting them later in life. The Triitopia playground in Northern Berlin, has been installed with lofty climbing frames that have a maximum fall height of 1.8 metres; it is every overprotective parent’s worst nightmare. Such playgrounds aim to reduce the safety measures in place, essentially helping children face real world situations on a regular basis, even if it means breaking a bone. Karlsruhe University of Education’s Prof Rolf Schwarz commented: “If we want children to be prepared for risk, we need to allow them to come in contact with risk.” Ironically enough, it is Germany’s risk-aversion techniques, which imply strict standard policies, that has resulted in its increased risk-accepting capabilities. Soon enough, similar playgrounds are expected to be constructed by the UK and the US. (Philip Olterman, “Learning the ropes: why Germany is building risk into its playgrounds,” The Guardian, 24 October 2021) 

TURKEY
Tensions ease as Erdogan reverts the decision to ban ambassadors
Tensions between Turkey, the US and other Western countries eased after the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's threat to ban ambassadors was taken back. The dispute sparked when the embassies of the US, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden issued a statement calling for the release of Osman Kavala. Erdogan reversed the decision after the involved countries released a statement, assuring that they would not interfere in Turkey’s domestic affairs. The issue is said to be settled for now. (“Turkey dispute with US eases after threat to expel envoys,” BBC, 26 October 2021; “Turkey’s Erdogan U-turns on threat to expel Western ambassadors,” France24, 25 October 2021)

REGIONAL
Poland: EU condemns Morawiecki’s usage of World War terminology
On 25 October, the EU strongly criticized Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s remarks during an interview with the Financial Times. Morawiecki suggested that the EU withholding the pandemic recovery funds and imposing sanctions on Poland likened itself to a World War III situation. In response to this, the European Commission spokesperson Eric Mamer said: “(the EU) was a project that very successfully contributed to establishing a lasting peace among its member states… (there is) no place for rhetoric referring to war.” Morawiecki’s interview also had him reiterating that Poland was going to remain strong in the face of a deadly opposition. He said: “If they start the third world war, we are going to defend our rights with any weapons which are at our disposal.” However, the Polish government’s spokesperson Piotr Muller appealed to not take Morawiecki’s comments in its literal sense. (“EU calls out Polish 'war rhetoric' in dispute over judicial reforms,” Deutsche Welle, 25 October 2021) 

Kramp-Karrenbauer comments on EU-NATO security
On 21 October, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said to her European counterparts: “Forget your lofty ideas about the Continent defending itself and get real.” Although some European leaders have professed the muddled US-led withdrawal from Afghanistan, it showed that Europe needed to function more independently in reference to its military. Kramp-Karrenbauer argued that the debacle demonstrated the need for closer and more effective military cooperation between Europe and the US. She also urged the ministers of NATO to engage in a debate on how capabilities of the European allies could develop to be more effective. (Florian Eder and Laurenz Gehrke, “German defense minister warns Europeans: Don’t detach from NATO,” POLITICO, 21 October 2021; “EU defense ambitions should not 'duplicate' NATO: Stoltenberg,” Deutsche Welle, 22 October 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE
In a bid to rethink climate policy, NGOs urge fossil fuel companies to be treated like the tobacco industry
A group of NGOs, on discovering that fossil fuel producers enjoyed hundreds of meetings with Brussels’ decision makers since the Paris climate agreement, proposed that oil and gas companies should be treated like the tobacco industry and denied routine meetings with the EU officials. According to the researchers, 70 former government ministers and other public officials work for these oil and gas companies, which the NGOs say allows the energy firms to benefit from the “knowhow and contact books of insiders”. Myriam Douo, a campaigner at Friends of the Earth Europe, suggested that the policymakers must follow the World Health Organization’s framework convention on tobacco control guidelines for the same. (Jennifer Rankin, “Shun fossil fuel firms by treating them like tobacco industry, EU urged,” The Guardian, 25 October 2021)

BREXIT
EU research programme Horizon Europe funding affected
The ongoing dispute on the Northern Ireland protocol, has led to scientists from the UK being “frozen out” of the GBP 80 billion EU research programme, Horizon Europe. The European Commission assured that the UK was being treated like a full associate member of Horizon, but was in effect being locked out because of funding for the UK participants. David Frost expressed his concern over Brussels’ delay in ratifying the UK’s participation in the research programme which was affecting their scientists’ position in pan-European research endeavours. (Lisa O'Carroll, “British scientists being ‘frozen out’ of EU research due to NI row, claims MP,” The Guardian, 25 October 2021; Lisa O'Carroll and Patrick Wintour, “David Frost says EU close to breaching Brexit deal over science programme,” The Guardian, 25 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
President Emmanuel Macron denounces Sudanese coup attempt
On 25 October, French President Emmanuel Macron denounced the coup attempt in Sudan and called for the immediate release of the Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, along with the Sovereign Council’s civilian members and other government officials. The soldiers belonging to Sudan’s cabinet have also been arrested. Hamdok was detained for not issuing a statement in support of the coup. In a statement sent to Reuters, Sudan’s information ministry called on Sudanese “to block the military's movements to block the democratic transition.” The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel, after condemning Hamdok’s arrest, stated: “We call on the security forces to immediately release those they have unlawfully detained.” (Sabine Siebold, “EU demands immediate release of Sudanese leader, cabinet members,” Reuters, 25 October 2021; “French President Macron calls for immediate release of Sudan Prime Minister,” Reuters, 25 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #20, 25 October 2021, Monday

EU-Taiwan bilateral relations intensify amid Chinese opposition

Matteo Salvini goes to trial over 2019 migrant ship docking refusal; France launches communications satellite; Erdogan declares 10 Western ambassadors as ‘persona non grata’; 

Photo :


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer 

EU-Taiwan bilateral relations intensify amid Chinese condemnation 
The EU initiated its attempt to create a “common strategic culture” against the bipolarity between China and the U.S and the multipolar international system. On 21 October, in a landslide vote, the European Parliament adopted a report calling for closer relations with Taiwan. The Parliament in Strasbourg in a majority of 580 to 26 votes supported the non-binding resolution requesting an urgent “impact assessment, public consultation and scoping exercise on a bilateral investment agreement". The lawmakers urged for the bloc’s trade office to be renamed “European Union office in Taiwan” in Taipei opposed to the previous “European Economic and Trade Office in Taiwan” to mark a broader scope for their bilateral ties. Following the listing of Taiwan as a trade partner in 2015, there was an indication of an upgraded mission to Taiwan. The members of parliament (MEPs) called for cooperation on semiconductor supplies. The MEPs also expressed “grave concern” over China’s “military belligerence, pressure, assault exercises, airspace violations and disinformation campaigns against Taiwan”. Rapporteur Charlie Weimers said : “The European Parliament's first report on EU-Taiwan relations demonstrates that the EU is ready to upgrade its relationship with our key partner Taiwan”. He suggested the bloc intensify its trade relations with Taiwan within this year. 

How did Taiwan and China respond?
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Wenbin expressed condemnation. He stated: “The EU parliament should immediately stop words and actions that undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Earlier this month, China criticized the French senator Alain Richard for calling Taiwan a ‘country’. China was “dissatisfied” over Czech Republic and Slovakia hosting Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and urged European countries to not “undermine the political foundation of the bi lateral relations,”. 

Taiwanese officials expressed gratitude saying the resolution sets a “new milestone” for its relations with the bloc.

What is the background?
First, the meeting occurred at a critical geopolitical juncture. With both countries issuing sanctions in March, EU-China relations took a nosedive after the collapse of a long-negotiated investment plan in May. With Merkel stepping down, China loses an important and influential partner. The summit was held a day prior to the EU and the US announcing their collaboration on the Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC is revered as an instrument to counter China. The statement by a EU diplomat Josep Borrell in September defended EU’s plans of expanding ties with Taiwan without any recognition of statehood”. The statement was issued amidst strained ties between China and Lithuania over Lithuania’s decision to authorize a “Taiwanese Representative Office'' in Vilnius. Prior to voting on the agreement, the Chinese ambassador lobbied the parliament. The ambassador hoped the president would leverage their role to enable the parliament to respect the seriousness and the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, to promote a stronger constructive role in building the political foundations of EU-China relations. The report raises larger concerns for China amidst the new AUKUS cooperation. 

Second, amid a global chip shortage, the agreement is advantageous to Taiwan and the EU. As a tech powerhouse, Taiwan has been an attractive trade partner for the bloc. However, military tensions and provocations have significantly increased between China and Taiwan. Taiwan predicts that China can potentially launch a “full scale” invasion of the island by 2025. 

Way forward
First, the question of statehood. The EU in multiple instances reassured China of indulging in trade with Taiwan without providing for the recognition of statehood. 

Second, challenge to the foundation of bi lateral relations. Borrell hoped for continued China-EU cooperation over the joint construction of BRI and EU’s connectivity initiative. China supported strengthened vaccine, technological, innovation, finance, agriculture and energy cooperation in the ‘strategic dialogue’ held in September. Considering the emphasis laid by the EU on the human rights situation in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and China, the countries now differ fundamentally on the foundation of their bi lateral relations. While China is focused on reinforcing the previous agreement of “One-China '' policy as the principle for the bi lateral ties, the EU is demanding a more mature approach centred around addressing unresolved issues. China is disappointed with the EU's pursuit of relations with Taiwan. The EU and Taiwan have held open discussions about trade thus providing for an international space to Taiwan. It seems that there is a new multipolar challenge to China’s dominance in world affairs. 

References

EU lawmakers push to 'upgrade' ties with Taiwan,” Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021.

EU lawmakers push for closer ties with Taiwan, drawing Chinese anger,” Reuters, 21 October 2021.

Finbarr Bermingham, “Leverage your role: China tried to sway EU-Taiwan vote,” South China Morning Post, 21 October 2021.

Stuart Lau, “How little Lithuania dragged the EU into its showdown with China,” Politico, 6 October 2021.

Finbarr Bermingham, “EU defends plan to expand Taiwan relations without recognition of statehood,” South China Morning Post, 29 September 2021.


IN BRIEF  
By Joeana Cera Matthews 

ITALY
Matteo Salvini goes to trial over 2019 denial of migrant ship docking
On 23 October, Former Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s trial for preventing a migrant ship from docking began. Salvini has been accused of denying the Open Arms migrant rescue ship from docking at an Italian port in 2019 leading to around 147 people being stranded at sea for days. The charges against him include ‘deprivation of liberty’ and ‘abuse of authority’; if convicted he could face prison time up to 15 years. He has, however, stated that his actions were motivated by national interests. Although the formal trial began in Palermo, Sicily on 15 September, it was postponed due to the inability to accommodate the media, civil parties, and lawyers in a single courtroom. A member of the nationalist League party, Salvini was interior minister from June 2018 to September 2019. (“Italy: Former minister Matteo Salvini on trial for preventing migrant ship from docking,” Deutsche Welle, 23 October 2021; Benjamin Dodman, “'Salvini's moment has passed': Fading right-wing champion on trial for blocking migrants at sea,” France24, 23 October 2021)

POLAND
Civic Platform elects Donald Tusk as party leader
On 24 October, the Polish opposition party Civic Platform announced former Prime Minister Donald Tusk to have been elected as their leader. The announcement followed party-wide elections over the weekend. The former European Council President and current chairman of the European People’s Party (EPP) intends to defeat the ruling Law and Justice Party. Tusk has been the acting leader of Civic Platform since July; however, this election victory will imply greater support for the leader as he presents hope to Poles who want out of the clash with the EU over the rule of law. (Maia de La Baume, “Donald Tusk elected leader of Poland’s Civic Platform,” POLITICO, 24 October 2021)

TURKEY
Erdogan taking on the West by declaring 10 envoys as ‘persona non grata’
On 23 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked for the 10 envoys who called for Osman Kavala’s release to be declared ‘persona non grata’. Declaration of ‘persona non grata’ revokes diplomatic immunity provided to ambassadors and is equivalent to being expelled. There remains vagueness on whether Turkey will expel these envoys. According to TRTWorld, Erdogan stated: “(they) should either understand or they should leave… (ambassadors) cannot dare come to the Turkish foreign ministry and give orders.” Erdogan’s move will upset the West including significant partners like the US, Germany, and France. Osman Kavala is a civil society leader who was imprisoned in 2017 for involvement in anti-government protests; he is yet to be convicted. (Laurens Cerulus, “Turkey calls 10 western ambassadors ‘persona non grata’ over civil rights criticism,” POLITICO, 23 October 2021; Erkan Arikan, “Opinion: Erdogan is fighting to stay in power | Opinion,” Deutsche Welle, 24 October 2021; “Turkey moves to throw out US envoy and nine others,” BBC, 24 October 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
France: Communications satellite launched
On 24 October, France successfully launched a communications satellite that will enable quick communication of French armed forces across the globe. Named ‘Syracuse 4A,’ the satellite was launched via Ariane 5 rocket. According to French air and space force spokesperson Colonel Stephane: “(the satellite) is designed to resist military aggression from the ground and in space, as well as interference.” The state-of-the-art satellite is capable of observing its close surroundings and escaping from attacks. A weapons proliferation expert at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy Marco Finaud said: “This is the final warning scenario, if deterrence fails.” (“France successfully launches cutting-edge military communications satellite,” France24, 24 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #19, 23 October 2021, Saturday

EU’s farewell to Chancellor Angela Merkel

La Palma volcano intensifies triggering further evacuations; Turkey’s law on insulting president under scrutiny 

Photo : Reuters


IN BRIEF  
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Padmashree Anandhan 

EU’s farewell to Chancellor Angela Merkel
On 22 October, German Chancellor Angela Merkel attended her supposedly last European Council summit. At the summit, Council President Charles Michel termed her to be a "monument" and said summits without the long-time chancellor would be like “Rome without the Vatican or Paris without the Eiffel Tower.” She was complimented and praised by the leader of the EU for her extreme sobriety, simplicity and how she kept the European Project on course. According to The European federalist and former British MEP Andrew Duff: “She prioritised EU unity over reform - and she leaves the Union more disunited than ever, with one man overboard.” Merkel will be memorialized in European history as a beacon of light that kept the EU building blocks even during its tough times. (Jessica Parker, “EU leaders give Merkel an ovation at final summit,” BBC, 23 October 2021; “Angela Merkel receives fond farewell at final EU summit,” Deutsche Welle, 22 October 2021)

SPAIN 
La Palma volcano intensifies triggering further evacuations
Volcanic activity in the Canary Islands triggered another series of evacuations. The Cumbre Vieja volcano erupted in September. Since then, 7,500 people have been evacuated. Seeping into Tazacorte, the lava flow has covered 866 hectares (2,100 acres) of the island, according to the EU's Copernicus Earth Observation Programme. Since the eruptions began, approximately 2,185 buildings have been destroyed. On 22 October, 500 people fled their homes overnight in Tazacorte. The volcano is expected to erupt further for the next three months with fears over more destruction of domestic life. The Spanish government has promised to provide for increased assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure. (“Spain: La Palma volcano triggers further evacuations,” Deutsche Welle, 22 October 2021)

TURKEY
Turkey’s law on insulting president under scrutiny 
A law regarding insulting the president of Turkey has come under scrutiny. Europe’s Human Rights Court called on Turkey to reverse its law allowing for prosecutions of individuals who insult the president. The Court ruled that the detention of the prosecuted violates their freedom of speech. Around 1,000 have been arrested over the crime prescribed under the law within seven years of Erdogan becoming president. The Justice Ministry data has evaluated around 31,000 charges and filed 3,325 convictions in 2020. The year marking Erdogan’s presidency saw 35,507 cases out of 160,169 investigations launched. According to the ECHR, Turkey's rule on insulting the president gives the president an exceptional standing when it comes to disseminating information and opinions about them. Referring to the popular criminal proceeding against Sorli, the court concluded the charges were “incompatible with freedom of expression”. A prominent sentencing of three-and-a-half years was charged to pro-Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, which was the longest sentence for the crime. The ECHR added that the law should allow for citizens to convey their ideas without authorities interfering and violating their rights. (Ali Kucukgocmen, “Top European court says Turkey should change law on insulting president,” Reuters, 19 October 2021)

LUXEMBOURG 
Luxembourg becomes first country in Europe to legalise Cannabis 
Luxembourg has become the first European country to legalize consumption and production of cannabis, allowing adults to grow up to four cannabis plants in their gardens or homes. Under the new laws, trade in the principal psychoactive constituent Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and seeds is permitted without limits on quantity or levels. Retail activities as well as import and export of seeds has also been legalized. The law provides for growing plants at homes for commercial purposes, however, the plans for the state-regulated and national chains got delayed due to the pandemic. Justice Minister Sam Tamson said: “We thought we had to act, we have an issue with drugs and cannabis is the drug that is most used and is a large part of the illegal market.” In addition to softening the law, the transport and consumption of up to three grams would be considered a misdemeanour. Fines have been reduced and there still remains “zero tolerance” for dealers in the same regard. Luxembourg is set to join Canada, Uruguay and 11 other US countries in breaching the UN convention on control of narcotic drugs that limits the distribution for exclusively medical and scientific purposes. (Daniel Boffey, “Luxembourg first in Europe to legalise growing and using cannabis,” The Guardian, 23 October 2021) 

MIGRATION
The migrant issue gears tension amongst EU leaders
On 22 October, on the second day of the Brussels summit, 27 European Union leaders met to discuss the issue of refugees and migrants. The problem of migrants has become rather controversial since the inflow rate overtook the count of refugees from January to July especially through Belarus. The leaders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have blamed the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for causing instability in the region and urged the EU to fence the borders of Belarus. In contrast, the European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen responded: "no one's life should be used to put political pressure on the European Union." So far, the EU has proposed to tighten visa restrictions on Belarus but no actual plan has materialized. (“EU leaders call for tougher migration controls amid border surge,” Deutsche Welle, 22 October 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
AI is set to change the functioning of religion
Recently, a study was carried out by the BBC Global Religion team on whether artificial intelligence (AI) could transform religion. The study found that the AI machines like the Kannon (made to represent the god of mercy) present in a 400-year-old Buddhist temple of Japan and SanTo (first ever catholic robot) in Poland are at its very early stages. For now, it could be used in reciting prayers and answering questions from the bible or help in Catholic education. When it comes to connecting with people or replacing an actual priest it still needs time and advancement. Another technology called the “Robo Rabbi”, is an algorithm that helps one to be their best version. This uses AI to understand the person, answer their question and also task them with a “personalised daily challenge.” Through this, one does not have to reach out to a Rabbi to sort their issues as the technology can integrate very easily into human lives. The report concludes by saying that AI is set to alter the way religion works. (“God and robots: Will AI transform religion?” BBC News, 22 October 2021; Linda Kinstler, “Can Silicon Valley find God,” The New York Times, 16 July 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #18, 22 October 2021, Friday 

​​​​​​​European Commission enhances its tech ecosystem post-TTC meet

NATO decides defensive measures against Russia; MP Amess killer allegedly supported the IS; French government to aids citizens over energy prices; Scholz to be appointed Chancellor by early December

Photo : FilePhoto/Europe.eu


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

European Commission enhances its tech ecosystem post-TTC meet
On 29 September 2021, the EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) held its inaugural meeting in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The TTC is an initiative by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, and US President Joe Biden. The United States Co-Chairs — Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai collaborated with EU Co-Chairs — European Commission Executive Vice Presidents Margrethe Vestager and Valdis Dombrovskis to upgrade common principles for "21st Century economy". The summit discussed addressing non-market trade challenges and trade distortive practices. The countries intended to strengthen cooperation, transparency, and communication in semiconductor supply chains. They followed it by identifying existing gaps and vulnerabilities to advance R&D ecosystems to improve resilience. The partners sought to exchange information related to investment trends, transaction types, and the best practices related to analyzing risk. The investment screening discussion was focused on sensitive technologies and related data. Shared principles of cooperating to provide for capacity building of developing countries, including multilateral support to export control regimes, were agreed upon. Additionally, the partners agreed to engage in implementing innovative and trustworthy AI systems, studying the impact of AI on the future, ensuring the developed technology respects shared democratic values and universal human rights. The committee appointed working groups to develop plans for critical areas. The critical areas consisted of SME access to digital tools, enhancing emerging technology standards, securing critical supply chains and introducing clean technology objectives, data governance, and addressing the misuse of technology to threaten human rights and security. Many stakeholders participated in the summit and promised enhanced and diverse engagement in meeting the goals of the TTC. 

On 18 October, Europe invested GBP 227 million in tech start-ups. As an initiative of the European Commission's Europe Innovation Council (EIC) accelerator program, every company would directly receive GBP 17 million to upgrade technology for energy, healthcare, biotech, digital technologies, and space. The EIC selected up to 65 small companies and start-ups. Out of the 65 companies selected, 60 companies received GBP 227 million in equity, while the remainder received GBP 136 million in grants. French company UpMem working in developing processing in memory devices, noted: "The EIC support will allow our PIM technology to drastically reduce the energy and hardware footprint of digital services and data centers." Other companies facilitated by the EIC funds are - Minima Processor, a Finland based company developing a low-power processor, Plant-e from Belgium providing for a plant-powered energy harvesting system for IoT systems, a Sweden based company called Oldecomm looks at LED-based LiFi communication technology needed for spacecraft and aerospace along with WI-charge developing a wireless power system allowing for device charging over a 10-meter air range with a power which is 100 times more than batteries. The scheme also supports start-ups called 'Alice and Bob in France,' building the world's first fault-tolerant commercial quantum computers and Denmark's 'Sparrow Quantum,' looking at single-photon sources for photonic quantum computers. The EIC is harboring a new tech ecosystem by introducing "Horizon Europe," where start-ups can submit their ideas for a fast evaluation. Selected applicants are then invited to prepare a full plan with free business coaching. The same plans would be evaluated every 3 months at fixed 3-month intervals. Out of the 4,000 start-up ideas sent since March, 801 have already presented their full applications. A further 1,098 applications for October are now being evaluated. Mariya Gabriel, Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education, and Youth noted: "With the European Innovation Council we aim to bring Europe to the forefront of innovation and new technologies, by investing in new solutions for the health, environmental and societal challenges we are facing."

On 20 October, The European Commission launched an online consultation platform known as Futurium in alignment with the TTC talks. Futurium collects views from various businesses, think tanks, unions, academics, not-for-profit and environmental organizations, and other stakeholders. Margrethe Vestager of the 'A Europe Fit for the Digital Age,' said: "Robust and regular engagement with all interested parties on both sides of the Atlantic is an absolute must for the success of the EU-US Trade and Technology Council." Executive Vice-President and Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis noted the initiative compounds a transatlantic leadership on topics of technology and cooperation. He added that the platform is an outreach activity, and as a part of the promised transparency on trade issues, they would be collaborating with civil societies through their "Civil Society Dialogues." 

The European Parliament Press Kit for 21-22 October, under its Digital Transformation discussions, reviewed proposals on the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. The voting for the drafts is scheduled for 08 November. Further, the Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee called upon Frances Haugen, Facebook whistleblower, on 08 November for a hearing on "Whistleblowers' testimonies on the negative impact of big tech companies' products on users." As discussed in the TTC, the MEPs discussed the proposal of a rulebook aimed at Artificial Intelligence to set standards enabling trust and security. They focused on the ethical use of AI to safeguard citizens fundamental rights and also on AI investment uptake. Finally, they hoped for a standard and balanced approach which would promote legal certainty for SMEs and encourage innovation in the EU. The next meeting of the TTC is planned for 2022.

References

"European Parliament Press Kit for the European Council of 21-22 October 2021," European Parliament, 21 October 2021

Nick Flaherty, "Europe invests €227m directly in tech start-ups," eeNews Europe, 18 October 2021

Nick Flaherty, "EU consults on US Trade and Technology Council," eeNews Europe, 18 October 2021

Jen Psaki, "FACT SHEET: U.S.-EU Establish Common Principles to Update the Rules for the 21st Century Economy at Inaugural Trade and Technology Council Meeting," The Whitehouse, 29 September 2021


IN BRIEF 
By Padmashree Anandhan and Joeana Cera Matthews 

THE UNITED KINGDOM
British Prosecutors authorize police to charge murder suspect
On 15 October, a British parliament member was stabbed during the constituency meeting. The police arrested the suspect Ali Harbi Ali, a British citizen living in London, within hours and affirmed that the attack was a "terrorist incident." British prosecutors have given the authorization to police to charge the suspect with the murder of lawmaker David Amess. The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) is the authority that prosecutes criminal cases in England. According to Nick Price, head of the Crown Prosecution Service Special Crime and Counter-Terrorism Division "We will submit to the court that this murder has a terrorist connection, namely that it had both religious and ideological motivations." (Michael Holden, "Man charged with UK lawmaker's murder, court hears he supported IS," Reuters, 21 October 2021; "UK police charge suspect with murder of MP David Amess," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021)

GERMANY
Coalition talks decide to appoint Scholz as next Chancellor
On 21 October, three German parties — the SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP), proposed to form a coalition government. This is to finalize talks by November and to elect Social Democrat Olaf Scholz as Chancellor by 06 December 2021. Although the Greens and the SPD seem to share a progressive ideology, the FDP is much closer to the conservatives. This variance did not stop the parties from CEECs from creating a 12-page agreement of pledges on climate action, taxes, and minimum wage that will be inputted in the final government programme. In the background, the last national elections projected Angela Merkel's block in second place even after the Chancellor chose not to compete. Merkel was known for her skilled corridor diplomacy, being at the vanguard to deal with any crisis in the eurozone. It is said that if the talks between the parties to form a coalition fails, it will be the turn for Merkel to come back to Brussels. ("German parties aim to make Scholz chancellor by early December," Reuters, 22 October 2021; Johnny Cotton, "Auf Wiedersehen: Merkel attends her swan song EU summit – probably," Reuters, 21 October 2021)

FRANCE
"Middle class-indemnity" to be provided to low-income earners
On 21 October 2021, French Prime Minister Jean Castex announced a new plan to support the consumers during the soaring energy price crisis Europe is struggling with. The plan includes the government aiming to provide a payment of EUR 100 to those earning less than a monthly income of EUR 2,000. The payment is expected to assist at least 38 million people in France. The complete details of the measure are yet to be released. The opposition did not waste much time before it termed the measure as 'insufficient. National Rally's Marine Le Pen called for the reduction of VAT for gas, electricity, and fuel which would aid French people more than the payment. ("France to give citizens €100 payment to cope with rising energy prices," POLITICO, 22 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
NATO ministers mandate for a new strategy against Russia
On 21 October, a meeting between the NATO defense ministers was held in Brussels to discuss how to deal with Russia with increasing tensions in the Baltics and the Black Sea. According to the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, a "new strategy would mean ensuring we have the right forces in the right place at the right time." The current stand in the relations between NATO and Russia is strained. With recent developments in the Baltic and the Black Sea regions, the ministers' mandate that NATO needs to be ready for any forms of warfare, cyber or nuclear or space. Although the ministers have emphasized on being ready, Stoltenberg said that it will be too early to take a stance. (Robin Emmott, "NATO agrees master plan to deter growing Russian threat," Reuters, 22 October 2021; "NATO defense ministers talking Russia as relations plummet," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #17, 21 October 2021, Thursday

​​​​​​​France’s New Face: Eric Zemmour 

Moscow hosts talks on Afghanistan; EU-Poland dispute overshadows European Council summit; Europe stumbles into the fourth wave of COVID-19; The UK-New Zealand trade deal; Europe reels in Storm Aurore;

Photo : BBC


IN FOCUS 
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Profile: France's Eric Zemmour

Zemmour, 63, is an anti-immigrant writer of Algerian-Jewish descent. He previously served as a TV commentator and is a popular figure in the opinion polls. Convicted twice for religious and racial provocation, he admires Trump and is a holocaust denier. He also believes the state protected the Jews during the Second World War. He has strong constraints towards immigration, Muslims, and feminism. He considers French education as being "infiltrated by Marxism, anti-racism, and LGBT ideologies," leading to the decline of the French state. In his anti-establishment campaign at Beziers, Zemmour's rise witnessed an overturn in French politics. 

Earlier this week, one could predict a rematch in the second round between Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Polls also showcased a disappointed left-voting crowd that was devoid of alternatives. The opinion poll from Harris Interactive for Challenges magazine has noted the rise of Eric Zemmour to likely contest against Macron. While Macron led with 24 to 27 percent, Zemmour gained 17 to 18 percent. Both have not declared their candidacy. Zemmour's emergence is similar to Macron's, where they both emerged unexpectedly and began outranking potential candidates. 

While most voters seem unexcited at the prospects, Pascal Perrineau from Sciences Po commented: "The French want to upset a political order that hasn't won them over, and Éric Zemmour appears to be the bowling ball that's going to knock down all the pins." 

Previously, Macron has focused on gaining support on the right and closing the second round with Le Pen being voted out. With the new polls, it is unclear whom Macron will go against in the second round. Macron supporters are reluctant to target Zemmour, fearing his prominence, while they are also curious about the ideology of a "declining France" that Zemmour has been promoting. Moreover, Zemmour has created the possibility of outflanking Le Pen. In the previous years, Le Pen spent a substantial time to "detoxify" her xenophobic party; however the efforts seem to be in vain given the challenge she faces against another far-right figure.

Zemmour has successfully brought back discussions on the reverse colonization of France, the rise of feminism, and the loss of virility. He also spoke about the "great replacement" — a theory that has been cited by many gunmen. His supporters include voters that are against the larger "wokisme" base. The voter bank for Zemmour would be people who believe in French colour-blind society, perceive the threat of an American-style vision for France and the ill effects of the #MeToo movement. Zemmour plays on the past nostalgia and the threat to the existing culture posed by African immigrants who may dissolve France into a global conglomerate devoid of the real French culture. Younger voters are wary of Zemmour's statements on abolishing non-French first names, pointing a sniper rifle at the media, and commenting on the media's intention of ruining the French image. In the second run-off, Macron may be rejected more than Le Pen, but Zemmour could be more repulsive than Macron.

The Mayor of Beziers, where Zemmour organized his rally, advised Zemmour and Le Pen to collaborate to attain victory. Beziers has been Le Pen's vote bank, and Zemmour may require more support to win the area. France's far-right party, the Les Républicains, is yet to name their candidate. Despite the shift to the right in recent years, French politics remains divided. The traditional right has sometimes sought Zemmour's support to lure voters. Currently, politicians like Macron, Marine Le Pen, and now Zemmour are eager to carve out their own space in this divided political atmosphere. Many of the Les Républicains fear a similar fall to that of the Socialists in the previous elections. Most opponents of Zemmour are hoping his popularity wanes when he declares candidacy. Since he is an independent candidate, financing his campaign and getting the required 500 signatures from officials elected across France would also be a challenge to him. Eric Zemmour's rise is definitely paving a new road in French politics.

References

Victor Mallet, "The French disrupter: Eric Zemmour shakes up presidential race," The Financial Times, 21 October 2021

Lucy Williamson, "Eric Zemmour: Far-right journalist cast as Macron election rival," BBC, 19 October 2021

Norimitsu Onishi, "Rise of a Far-Right Pundit Is Scrambling French Politics," The New York Times, 12 October 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan

REGIONAL
Brussels: European Council leaders discuss energy and rule of law
On 21 October, the European Council gathered at Brussels for a two-day summit. The main agenda included discussing the soaring energy prices; however, Poland's recent antics challenging the EU's rule of law overshadowed the summit's primary agenda. Other issues on the agenda include the resurfacing coronavirus hot spots, migration, etc. The summit saw 502 of the 671 members of the European Parliament (MEPs) voting in favour of a resolution that calls for strict action against Poland in the form of withholding of funds and initiating Article 7. European Parliament President David Sassoli, who was absent for the summit, accused Poland of disputing "the legal bedrock" of the EU. Separately, commenting on the European energy price crisis, the EU Foreign Policy chief Josep Borrell said: "Energy prices today are the consequences of a big geopolitical game with a strong external dimension," which was most likely a reference to Russia. (Maia de La Baume, "
European Council: Live blog – POLITICO," POLITICO, 21 October 2021) 

Storm Aurore: Violent winds wreak havoc in western and northern Europe
On 21 October, powerful winds struck Germany, the Netherlands, France, Luxembourg and Belgium along with Poland and the UK. Storm Aurore, the first of the autumn storms, caused severe damages to property and infrastructure leading to the suspension of trains, uprooting of trees and collapsing of roofs. Meanwhile, the Netherlands reported four people as casualties as Poland witnessed four fatalities. In France, the gust of winds saw trees falling on power lines creating a power outage as 250,000 homes lacked electricity. Flash floods and thunderstorms were also witnessed in these regions. ("
Strong winds blow out the power, disrupts trains in parts of western Europe," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021) 

COVID-19
Europe experiences fourth wave as infections surge; lockdowns imposed
The World Health Organization has reported a seven per cent increase in new coronavirus cases across Europe in the last week, being the only region to record new cases. Central and eastern Europe has been affected due to low vaccination rates. Latvia, which had been off the pandemic radar, has now become the first country to announce a surge in infections. A similar situation persists in Poland and Slovakia while Belgium witnessed a hike of 53 percent along with Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine. In Russia, however, the denial to impose a nationwide lockdown citing economic concerns, has led them to announce a complete lockdown due to the surge in infections. Meanwhile, the UK and the Netherlands, which are heavily vaccinated countries, are also experiencing a surge of 44 per cent of new infections due to colder weather and poor restrictions. The hospitals in these countries have gone back to their old ways of cutting down regular health care to prioritize the unvaccinated cases. (Pjotr Sauer, "
Latvia is first country to reimpose lockdown in Europe's new Covid wave," The Guardian, 20 October 2021; Pjotr Sauer, "Moscow announces one-week lockdown as Russia Covid deaths rise," The Guardian, 21 October 2021; Camille Gijs, "Belgium's fourth coronavirus wave has started, says health minister," POLITICO, 21 October 2021) 

SPORTS
France: French sex tape scandal trial involving Karim Benzema begins
On 20 October, the three-day trial against French international footballer Karim Benzema commenced. Benzema has been charged with 'complicity in attempted blackmail' for implicating his former teammate and footballer Mathieu Valbuena. Benzema, reportedly, pushed Valbuena to pay the racketeers by blackmailing him with a sex tape. According to the prosecutors, the blackmailers inducted the Real Madrid striker so that he would convince Valbuena to pay up. Post the 2015 scandal, Valbuena and Benzema lost their spots in the French team, despite Benzema confirming his innocence. Valbuena believes the scandal ended his international career: "I'd have preferred to be left out of the French team for sporting reasons… When you've always been a good player and proudly worn the French shirt, it's always hard to accept… it's a wound that's difficult to get over." Benzema did not show up in the Versailles court and maintained that the charge against him was a "masquerade". ("
Karim Benzema: French sex tape blackmail case trial starts," BBC, 21 October 2021; Kim Willsher, "Real Madrid star Karim Benzema goes on trial in sex tape case," The Guardian, 20 October 2021) 

INTERNATIONAL
Russia: Moscow Conference on Afghanistan
On 20 October, Russia hosted talks in Moscow to discuss the Afghanistan crisis. The talk was attended by officials from 10 countries including China and Pakistan along with officials from the Taliban. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called for an inclusive government in Afghanistan which prioritized human and women rights, as he explained the necessity of good governance in gaining recognition. Most importantly, the threat of ISIS in northern Afghanistan and drug trafficking was flagged by the Russians. So far, Taliban's request for recognition has been denied and Russia as a countermeasure has deployed a series of joint drills in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. (Emma Graham-Harrison, and agencies in Moscow, "
Russia holds high-profile Afghanistan talks with Taliban," The Guardian, 20 October 2021; "Taliban pleads for recognition at Moscow talks," Deutsche Welle, 20 October 2021)  

The UK: Johnson signs trade deal with New Zealand
After 16 months of discussions, the Prime Ministers of the UK and New Zealand, Boris Johnson and Jacinda Ardern, signed a trade deal via a virtual meeting. The deal is aimed to shoot up New Zealand's economy by NZD one billion. This will occur through the elimination of tariffs on almost 97 per cent of goods including wine, butter, cheese, beef, and lamb. According to the UK ministers, this trade deal could be an alternate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) post-Brexit. CPTPP entails 11 countries including Japan, Australia, Singapore, Mexico among others. ("
UK and New Zealand ink trade deal on wide range of goods," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021; Emilio Casalicchio, "Historic UK snub to New Zealand put to bed with trade deal," POLITICO, 20 October 2021)

EU adopts resolution to strengthen ties with Taiwan
On 21 October, The European Parliament ratified a non-binding resolution that would strengthen ties between the EU and Taiwan. The resolution essentially pushed for a new investment deal with Taiwan. The announcement comes amidst the increasing airspace violations and Chinese military presence in Taiwan. According to MEP Charlie Weimers: "The European Parliament's first report on EU-Taiwan relations demonstrates that the EU is ready to upgrade its relationship with our key partner Taiwan." The investment agreement will engage both parties to cooperate on critical supplies like semiconductors. While the Chinese Foreign ministry has condemned the move, Taiwan sees it as a new milestone in its diplomatic relations. ("
EU lawmakers push to 'upgrade' ties with Taiwan," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021)


​​​​​​​NIAS Europe Daily Brief #16, 20 October 2021, Wednesday

​​​​​​​The Future of NATO-Russia relations

Poland-EU spat continues in public outlash; EU denies nuclear talks with Tehran; Pentagon chief visits Black Sea countries; Turkey’s retaliation over Kavala’s release request; EU exports one billion COVID-19 vaccines;

Photo : YvesHerman/Reuters/FilePhoto


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews

NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions

On 18 October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced via a Foreign Ministry statement that Russia would be terminating its diplomatic mission to NATO. Lavrov claimed the suspension to be a retaliatory move to NATO’s recent expulsion of its mission members to the alliance. 

What triggered the suspension?
First, the immediate triggers. On 06 October, NATO banned eight Russian diplomats who were members of the Russian mission to the alliance. They were expelled on the grounds of being “undeclared intelligence officers” or simply put — spies. Alongside this expulsion, NATO halved the size of the Russian mission to its Brussels headquarters without justifying the need for the same. Deutsche Welle had then reported Interfax citing a senior Russian lawmaker’s response; he said that Moscow “would retaliate, not necessarily in kind.” 

Second, the ripple effect of the expulsion. The NATO expulsion was followed by several eastern European countries, as well as those countries closely associated with the alliance, asking Russian envoys in their countries to leave, accusing them on grounds similar to those alleged by NATO. Moscow responded in kind — asking these diplomats to leave the respective region ‘for good’.

Third, the role of history. Relations between Russia and NATO have been tense since 2014. Following the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula along with the Moscow-backed Donbass region conflict, any working relationship between Russia and NATO ceased. The NATO-Russia Council too has been dormant. 

What does the suspension mean?
Russia is set to cancel NATO’s accreditation on 01 November. Once this comes into force, NATO is expected to contact Russia via its envoy to Belgium, Alexander Tokovinin, in case of emergencies. Lavrov suggested that NATO too appoint a similar envoy in Moscow. However, the already strained relations imply the futility of such a facility. Since the suspension of practical cooperation in 2014, channels of communication remain open only for high-level military coordination talks. 

Is there a possibility of reconciliation?
First, the incessant misunderstandings and blame games. Following the expulsion of the Russian diplomats, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu stated that they had acted only in “defense and deterrence” and were still interested in having an “open and meaningful dialogue” with Moscow. However, Lavrov criticized the alliance for trying to “disintegrate the internal unity of the region” by creating stressful situations and being “unfriendly”.

Second, the declining relationship. Responding to the Russian announcement, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said: “It’s more than just regrettable, this decision taken by Moscow will seriously damage the relationship.” Russia never replaced its latest ambassador to NATO, Alexander Grushko, who had returned to Moscow in January 2018. The deteriorating relation between the two has been quite evident in the past few years; member countries regularly battle a noncooperative Russia either at sea or via media. The Russia-NATO relationship only saw signs of worsening given the fact that NATO’s condition to return to normalcy was based on Russia leaving Crimea. A highly unlikely event, at least in the near future. Thus, the current scenario indicates the prolongation of tense relations.

References

Russia to suspend Nato diplomatic mission amid tension,” BBC, 19 October 2021
Russia suspends its mission to NATO,” Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2021
David M. Herszenhorn, “
Russia shuts diplomatic mission to NATO – POLITICO,” POLITICO, 18 October 2021
NATO expels 8 from Russian mission as 'intelligence officers',” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2021


IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Joeana Cera Matthews

SPAIN
Madrid: Crying room installation aims to rid mental health stigma
On 10 October, the World Mental Health Day, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez proposed a EUR 100 million mental healthcare drive which would include a 24-hour suicide helpline among other services. Speaking on the occasion, Sanchez commented on mental illness: “It is not a taboo, it is a public health problem that we must talk about, make visible and act accordingly.” Also called the La Lloreria, Spain’s Crying Room is an attempt to remove the taboo that looms around crying, seeking help, and basic mental health. Records prove that suicide is the second most common cause of death in Spain; 3,671 Spanish people died by suicide in 2019. (Michael Gore, “
Spain's 'Crying Room' seeks to banish mental health taboo,” Reuters, 18 October 2021)

GREECE
Karpathos: Earthquake of magnitude 6.0 hits island
On 19 October, the Greek island of Karpathos was hit by an earthquake, the tremors of which were felt across the eastern Mediterranean region including several other Greek islands, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Egypt, as well as parts of Israel and Palestine. No casualties or fatalities have been reported. The US Geological Survey estimated the magnitude of the quake to be 6.0 while the depth of the same was 37.8 kilometers. A Greek seismologist has confirmed that the quake originated from an African fault and there were no aftershocks to be expected. (“
Quake off Greece's Karpathos shakes eastern Mediterranean,” Reuters, 19 October 2021; “Strong earthquake hits the eastern Mediterranean,” Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2021)

TURKEY
Envoys from 10 countries summoned over calls to release Osman Kavala
On 18 October, ambassadors of Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the US released a statement calling for a speedy resolution to the Osman Kavala case. Osman Kavala is a civil society leader who was imprisoned in 2017 for involving in anti-government protests; he is yet to be convicted. The Council of Europe has issued a warning against Turkey that it would launch disciplinary proceedings if Kavala is not released before 30 November 2021. Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu responded to the statement, saying: “It is not acceptable for ambassadors to make a recommendation or suggestion to the judiciary for an ongoing case." (“
Turkey summons 10 envoys over calls for Kavala's release,” Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2021; “Turkey summons 10 ambassadors over call to release activist Osman Kavala,” France24, 19 October 2021)

REGIONAL
Poland-EU: European Parliament witnesses Morawiecki
On 19 October, a debate sparked between the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the recent ruling by the Polish court. The court ruled that “parts of the EU treaties are "incompatible" with the country's constitution and that the latter takes precedence.” Poland’s move is viewed as a direct challenge to the unity of the EU legal order. In the debate, the PM maintained that he rejected the rumors of a Polexit. He asked for member nations to fight the common challenges such as energy shortage, migration, and the issue of Russia. Criticizing the EU for treating certain member states as “second-class,” he stated that Poland would not stand for blackmails or financial threats. In response to Morawiecki’s statements, von der Leyen mentioned the applicability of Article 7 in the case of member violations. She also said that the Commission continued to keenly assess the judgment and added “We cannot and will not allow our common values to be put at risk.” (“
Polish leader blasts EU over controversial rule of law disputeDeutsche Welle, 19 October 2021; Maïa De La Baume and David M. Herszenhorn, “Ursula von der Leyen, Mateusz Morawiecki clash in European Parliament,” POLITICO, 19 October 2021)

COVID-19
EU completes export of one billion COVID-19 vaccines
On 18 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU had successfully exported one billion COVID-19 vaccines. She further commented on the occasion: “Very clearly, the European Union is the largest exporter of the COVID-19 vaccines.” As von der Leyen stated, the EU is now the world’s biggest vaccine exporter. It provided almost 90 million of its vaccines to WHO’s COVAX initiative. Despite the large rollout of vaccines, vaccine inequality persists. Most of the jabs have reached developed countries like the UK, Japan, and Turkey while developing and under-developed countries struggle to increase their inoculation rates; they cannot due to the lack of available vaccines. Recognizing this dearth, the EU has promised a supply of 200 million doses to the most vulnerable countries. Disregarding the lack of vaccines in poorer countries, rich countries are now introducing booster shots. The WHO has warned against this “hoarding of vaccine supplies” and requested those countries in question to delay third shots until an equilibrium is reached in the global vaccine distribution. (“
EU says it has exported over 1 billion COVID-19 vaccines,” Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2021; Francesco Guarascio, “EU has exported over 1 bln COVID-19 vaccines, von der Leyen says,” Reuters, 18 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
The EU and Iran: Nuclear deal talks hit pause
On 15 October, the EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said that Iran had agreed to meet the EU officials at Brussels for nuclear talks but had denied the indirect talks with the US in Vienna. The advanced uranium capacity that Iran acquired during the Trump-approved US pull-out from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, created enormous pressure on the EU and the US. Since then, they have been trying to negotiate with Iran to restore the previous status quo as part of the nuclear deal. Iran, however, proposes to agree to the same in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions imposed on it. A senior EU diplomat predicted that the upcoming meet in Brussels could be a mere diversion and cannot match the indirect talks that could have happened between Iran, the US, and other parties. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented that “We will look at every option to deal with the challenge posed by Iran.” (Arshad Mohammed, “
EU's Borrell says Iran wants to meet officials in Brussels over nuclear deal,” Reuters, 15 October 2021; Stephanie Liechtenstein, “EU, US try to lure Iran back to nuclear talks as hopes fade,” POLITICO, 17 October 2021; “EU denies nuclear talks with Iran in Brussels, contradicting Tehran,” France24, 18 October 2021)

Pentagon chief visits Black Sea countries
On 19 October, the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Ukraine with the motive of enhancing and strengthening defense cooperation. Commenting on Russia, he stated: “Let’s be clear, that Russia started this war and Russia is the obstacle to a peaceful resolution.” Austin is on a visit to the Black Sea countries, having already visited Georgia on 18 October. He is set to visit Romania on 20 October. The idea behind the meetings is to assure that these countries have US support against Russian belligerence. The key focus of the visit to Georgia was to renew the military program that expires in December and to showcase its commitment to Tbilisi which has sought for NATO membership. Austin’s visit intends to send a message to Russia, as its participation in the Black Sea region is turning into a challenge for NATO. (“
US defense chief says Russia is an 'obstacle to peace,” Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2021; “Pentagon chief to hold military talks in Georgia on first stop of Black Sea visit,” France24, 18 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #15, 19 October 2021, Tuesday

FIFA versus EA: It is more than Football

Russian mission to NATO suspended; Norway bow-and-arrow attacker claimed to have stabbed victims; One year since the Samuel Paty assassination

Photo : fifa.com


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

The tussle for a goal: FIFA versus EA
Recently, EA (Electronic Arts) Sports announced that it was considering changing the name of FIFA, its famous soccer series. This has created confusion in the region as this involves a change in the game series and the gamers; creating a ripple economic effect. Being the home of football, the revenue generated from FIFA has been essential to Europe. The FIFA-EA split would imply prospects for other market competitors.

Genesis of the split
FIFA is an international governing body of association football headquartered in Switzerland while EA Sports is a division within the EA (Electronic Arts), an American company that deals with creating and publishing sport video games. Both signed a deal in 1993. In exchange for the licensed name “FIFA”, the EA group agreed to develop a best-selling video game franchise. After decades of partnership, the parties decide to split ways due to various factors. While FIFA has called in for new developers and investors to fund its innovations and is trying to increase the occurrence of the World Cup to every two years; the EA company has already registered two trademarks in the EU and Britain in the name of “EA Sports FC.”

FIFA versus EA Sports
The interests of FIFA and EA conflict in three areas. One, the vision of both parties seems to vary. FIFA aims to venture more into the esports market while EA wants it to go global, expanding itself into arena video game tournaments and digital products like non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Two, in terms of control; EA has utilized its FIFA license in entering agreements with other organizations like UEFA, the English Premier League, and other domestic play-offs, but FIFA, being a major income generator has had to oblige to the single party rules. FIFA has for decades been a licenser for EA Sports; it intends to innovate more along with new developers like Fortnite to step in for its growth in the esports market. Three, the financial hitch. As the duo’s game launch has only crossed an income of USD 20 billion in the last two decades, the license agreements are now affordable at just USD 150 million per year.

What does this mean for Europe? 
The FIFA-EU partnership played a major role in Europe - as much to the footballers as it did to the video gamers. A split in this legendary partnership points to three outcomes. One, the outsourcing for new developers and investors via the FIFA esports venture implies more investment, innovation, and regional competition. Two, the EA expanded its licensing horizons beyond the EU and the UK to diversify its revenue growth. And third, the increasing significance of video gamers’ population which factors into the determination of European revenue flow.

References
Tariq Panja, “EA Sports Is Planning for a FIFA Without FIFA,” The New York Times, 13 October 2021

Will Fifa 22 be EA Sports' last Fifa game called Fifa? - CBBC Newsround,” BBC, 15 October 2021

EA Sports is planning for a Fifa without Fifa, as football association ups asking price to US$1b,” The Straits Times,17 October 2021


IN BRIEF 
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer 

FRANCE 
Following clerical child sex abuse reports, Prime Minister meets the Pope
The French Prime Minister Jean Castex met with Pope Francis at the Vatican. The meeting involved an unusual gift - a signed Messi jersey that the PM gifted to the Pope along with an 1836 edition of “Notre Dame de Paris.” The Pope accepted the gift, marking good relations between France and the Holy See. The gifts were followed by a private 35-minute talk at the Vatican. The trip was made following the devastating report of child abuse in the French Catholic Church. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is also set to join the meeting. Reacting to the findings of the report, the Pope commented: “my shame, our shame.” Battling clerical abuse has been prioritized by the papacy. The battle intensified when Archbishop Eric de Moulins-Beaufort, the head of the Bishops' Conference of France, noted that priests were not liable to report any confessions of sexual abuse. While the confession is “the strictest bond of the sacramental seal,” the Vatican guidelines updated last year, require priests and clerics to report abuse. Moreover, the French legislation recognizes confidentiality but also requires reporting abuse in criminal cases against minors. (“French PM meets Pope Francis after devastating clerical child sex abuse report,” France24, 19 October 2021)

France commemorates one year of Samuel Paty’s assassination
On 16 October, France paid tribute to Samuel Paty. A 47-year-old middle-school teacher, Samuel Paty, was beheaded after being stabbed on 16 October, 2020. As a homage to him, French leaders unveiled a plaque at the Education Ministry and renamed a square opposite Sorbonne University in Paris’ Latin Quarter. Prime Minister Jean Castex remarked: “Here is a man who wanted to do his job, a demanding and sometimes thankless job, a man who only aspired to transmit the values of freedom, secularism, tolerance, free will.” Other memorials took place in his hometown and Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, where he taught; a statue and a mural were installed respectively. Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer, while speaking at a school, said: “We will not forget Samuel Paty.” Paty was attacked by an 18-year-old Chechen extremist Abdullakh Anzorov who claimed to be taking revenge on Paty. The crime was committed after Paty used cartoons of Prophet Muhammad to teach about free speech. Anzorov was later shot dead by French security services. The investigation into Paty’s death still remains open. (“France marks 1 year since the assassination of Samuel Paty,” Deutsche Welle, 16 October 2021)

NORWAY

Authorities allege stabbing as the cause of death in bow-and-arrow probe
The Norway bow-and-arrow attack’s continuing probe suggests that the victims were “stabbed to death” and not shot with arrows. The attack which killed five people and injured several led to an initial four-week custody of Espen Andersen Bråthen. Further, Bråthen was to undergo a psychiatric evaluation upon police orders. Based on the updates, the attacker discarded his weapons. About six days later, Inspector Omholt stated that other weapons were present at the time of the attack, which the assailant denies. The probe now suggests that the attacks were made using “stabbing weapons” and the attacker eventually ran out of arrows. Reports suggest a “double-digit” number of people being attacked with arrows at random, however, the victims have wounds different from that of an arrow attack. The attack was the worst preceded by the Brevik attack killing 77 people, mostly teenagers at a youth camp. (“Norway attack victims stabbed not shot with arrows, say police,” The Guardian, 18 October 2021; “Deaths in Norway attack came from stab wounds, not bow and arrow, police say,” Reuters, 18 October 2021)

RUSSIA

Russia suspends its NATO mission 
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suspended the Russian mission to NATO. The announcement came in response to the expulsion of eight Russian staff members from NATO’s military alliance mission. The staff expelled by NATO were deemed “undeclared Russian intelligence officers.” Out of the 16 Russian staff present, NATO allowed half the team to work. Lavrov stated the response was a result of “deliberate moves” by NATO to dismantle “conditions for elementary diplomatic work.” Adding to the suspension, he mentioned the mission would withdraw accreditation from 01 November. He suggested NATO contact the Russian embassy in Brussels. A NATO spokesperson acknowledged the media comments made by Lavrov but mentioned the absence of official communication on “the issues raised.” (“Russia suspends its mission to NATO,” Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2021)

SPACE

Russia: Filmmakers return after 12 days of shooting in space
On 17 October, Russia’s Soyuz space capsule returned to earth with a film crew post-shooting the first ever movie in space. The actors landed in Kazakhstan after leaving the International Space Station (ISS). The film called ‘Challenge’ was interrupted mid-filming when the thrusters glitched causing a tilt in the ISS, making them go off script. On returning, one of the actors commented on state television: “I’m feeling a bit sad today. It seemed that 12 days would be a lot, but I did not want to leave when everything was over.” Apparently, the movie is rumoured to be in a ‘space race’ alongside a Tom Cruise-starrer Hollywood movie that involves filming-in-space backed by Nasa and Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Seven astronauts continue on-board the space station. (“Russian actor returns to Earth after shooting first movie in space,” BBC, 17 October 2021; “Russian team back on Earth after filming first movie in space,” BBC, 17 October 2021; “Russian filmmakers land back on Earth after 12-day shoot on ISS,” France24, 17 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

Greece: Beijing 2022 Winter Games begin despite protests
On 17 October, the initial ceremony for the Beijing 2022 Winter Games took place despite garnering a lot of opposition and dissent. Human rights protesters called out the Games being hosted by China owing to its track record regarding the Uyghur community, Hong Kong, and Tibet. Four demonstrators, identified as Tibetans, were taken into custody by the police; any disturbance to the ceremony was, thus, averted. In a separate event, three activists who disrupted the ceremony were arrested and will be presented in court on 18 October. The initial ceremony includes lighting the flame in ancient Olympia. Due to the pandemic guidelines, only a few guests witnessed the ceremony. The official handover of the Games will occur at Panathenaic Stadium on 18 October wherein the first Olympic Games happened in 1896. The Winter Games are scheduled to take place in Beijing from 4 to 20 February 2022. Rights groups along with US lawmakers have been requesting the International Olympic Committee (IOC) for relocating the Games from China. (“Beijing Winter Games flame lit in Greece amid protests,” Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2021; Nektaria Stamouli, “https://www.politico.eu/article/greek-police-arrest-activists-olympic-ceremony-disruption-beijing-tibet-protest/,” POLITICO, 18 October 2021; “Beijing 2022: Protest staged at Winter Olympics torch lighting,” BBC, 18 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #14, 18 October 2021, Monday

Metaverse: Facebook unveils virtual five-year plan for the EU

Spain to criminalize prostitution; Hungarian Conservative leader to oppose Orban; French Ambassador to Belarus expelled; Europe's 'energy poverty' crisis

Photo : Facebook/MarkZukerberg


IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Metaverse: Facebook's new digital space project for the EU
On 18 October, Facebook announced its five-year plan in the EU, a project named "Metaverse." The project is a combination of virtual and augmented reality aimed to fill the gap of online interactions. This announcement has stirred debate in three ways. One, the announcement can be a cover to its recent fallout and to down its regulators from calling it to limit its influence. Two, it is a warning message to other tech giants such as Fortnite, Roblox, and Nvidia that have similar virtual platforms already in place. Three, this has given more awareness to new concepts like cryptocurrency and non-fungible tokens. Although the CEO has promised to build the platform "responsibly", the long-term effects on human life are still unknown.

What is Metaverse?
The concept of metaverse first originated in 1992 from Neal Stephenson's science fiction novel "Snow Crash." Since then, tech firms (Fortnite and Roblox) have been instrumenting it into games and have advanced in conducting virtual concerts and tournaments for people worldwide to interact. In the metaverse, one needs just a headset to enter the virtual realm to connect to everything. From concerts, a movie with friends, wearing clothes, owning property, walking to working inside Facebook in the future. For example, a person taking a test drive to buy a car can simply 'metaverse' and experience it from a couch. The same can also be applied in buying dresses through digital trials.

Why the EU?
The CEO has proposed to recruit 10,000 workers from the EU, but the reason behind choosing the region is that the company aims to make the EU its playground to draft or to set new internet rules. Apart from this, the other factors are the emerging talent, large consumer market, and first-class universities. It added that: "European policymakers are leading the way in helping to embed European values like free expression, privacy, transparency and the rights of individuals into the day-to-day workings of the internet."

This new tech investment in Europe will either raise the bars of the internet or go downhill. On the one hand, the company has agreed to abide by the European regulatory measures regarding free speech and data privacy. On the other hand, it has also warned the regulators against the strict rules stating that it might lead to the loss of jobs. With the pandemic proving the possibility of a digital world, the latter seems to have its least chances.

What does the future hold?
For the metaverse project to reach its full potential, network building needs advancement. First, a 4G or a 5G connection can only be a base. To make the metaverse a reality, a higher generation of the network is mandated. Two, such a shift into the virtual domain will have an unimaginable effect on society and humans. Three, this might lead to a digital colonization war between tech giants.

References

Ivan Levingston, "Facebook Is Creating 10,000 Jobs in EU to Help Develop a Metaverse," Bloomberg, 18 October 2021

"Facebook says it plans to hire 10,000 in EU for 'metaverse'," Deutsche Welle, 18 October 2021

"Apparently, it's the next big thing. What is the metaverse?BBC, 18 October 2021


IN BRIEF 
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Joeana Cera Matthews 

SPAIN 
Prime Minister pledges to criminalize prostitution
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has pledged to criminalize prostitution. He said the practice "enslaves" women. Despite being decriminalized in 1995, prostitution remains largely unregulated in Spain. There are no punishments for persons availing sex service; although acts of pimping or acting as a proxy for clients is illegal. Sanchez addressed the issue of outlawing prostitution at his Socialist Party's three-day congress in Valencia. The 2019 manifesto of the Socialist Party contained pledges to criminalize prostitution, deeming it: "one of the cruellest aspects of the feminization of poverty and one of the worst forms of violence against women." There has been no legislation supporting the manifesto yet. The Spanish Police have identified an increased potential of women to be trafficked in Spain. Thus, Sanchez's efforts to criminalize prostitution and draft legislation are awaited. ("Pedro Sanchez: Spanish PM vows to outlaw prostitution," BBC, 18 October 2021)

HUNGARY
Peter Marki-Zay set to oppose Viktor Orban in elections 
Peter Marki-Zay, a conservative regional mayor, has been elected to lead a unified opposition against Viktor Orban. Marki-Zay, who is unaffiliated with any political party, is expected to unseat Orban. "We don't simply want to replace Orban or his party; we want a better, cleaner, more honest Hungary," he was reported as saying. He will confront a unified opposition that includes former far-right, centre-right, and even socialist groups. Anti-immigration and anti-LGBTQ themes are at the forefront of his agenda. Marki-Zay has pledged to eliminate corruption and socioeconomic divides, saying: "We want to get rid of the big boys bullying the whole class." Fidesz has accused him of entering into a pact with the left to reclaim power and raise taxes. The party dubbed Marki-Zay a "career leftist". ("Hungary: Mayor Marki-Zay wins run-off to challenge Orban," BBC, 18 October 2021)

BELARUS
Belarus demands French Ambassador to depart over EU tensions 
Authorities in Belarus expelled the French Ambassador Nicolas de Lacoste. The media noted that the Ambassador did not engage with Lukashenko to provide him with credential copies. France does not recognize Lukashenko's disputed sixth presidential term. The Ambassador has been asked to leave before 18 October. Lukashenko has been cracking down on demonstrations and protests after EU sanctions on his continued presidency. The French Ambassador left the embassy on 18 October. ("Belarus expels French ambassador amid tensions with EU," France 24, 18 October 2021)

ENERGY
The concept of 'energy poverty' and its effect on Europe
On 17 October, the EU Labor Commissioner Nicolas Schmit cautioned that Europe was facing a crisis of 'energy poverty' that could worsen over the winter. 'Fuel poverty' or 'energy poverty' refers to a situation wherein a household is unable to afford adequate heating at reasonable costs. Despite explaining the European Commission's role in limiting the inflating prices for consumers within the EU, Schmit stated that implementation of measures to tackle the same needed to be taken by national governments. In September, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) had warned that more than 2.7 million people would be unable to bear the expense of heating their homes despite being employed. Countries like France and Germany have been taking up measures to ease the burden on their citizens. Prices of fuels have been escalating lately - natural gas and coal prices soared across the world while the price of an oil barrel rose to more than USD 80. The pandemic has been held responsible for this price climb since manufacturers have been increasingly demanding electricity to account for global supply shortages facilitating post-pandemic economic recovery. (Nik Martin, "EU warns of fuel poverty due to energy price crunch," Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2021)

MIGRATION
Deutsche Welle reports asylum-seekers' prime choice as Germany; Belarus route proves bothersome
On 17 October, Deutsche Welle reported that according to Germany's Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), 2021 witnessed a record rate of asylum applications - 100,278 (as of 30 September). Comparing figures with the same duration last year, this accounts for a rise of 35.2 per cent. First time asylum-seekers hailed from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq; with applications from Afghanistan seeing a dramatic increase by September end. However, the increased migration via Belarus which has seen an evident spike this last year has raised concerns for the EU. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's 'weaponization' of migrants to retaliate the EU sanctions has left the bloc members tackling a deteriorating migrant crisis. (Nik Martin, "Germany still top destination for asylum-seekers in Europe," Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #13, 16 October 2021, Saturday

Norway: The bow-and-arrow attack

UK MP murder termed ‘act of terrorism’; Increased Channel migration due to smugglers; Lord Frost’s dissatisfaction with the EU concessions; Merkel’s visit to Turkey; Italy’s anti-fascist protests

Photo : Reuters/BBC


IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Joeana Cera Matthews

NORWAY
Bow and Arrow killer undergoes mental health investigation 
Espen Andersen Bråthen reportedly began shooting at people with an arrow and bow on 14 October in Oslo. The suspect is now under a full psychiatric evaluation for the police to assess the motives for his crimes. Inspector Thomas Omholt said: “The strongest hypothesis after the first days of the investigation is that illness is in the background.” 

Deemed the worst attack in Norway since the Breivik massacre, Bråthen killed five people. The psychiatric investigations could take months but are crucial in defining if the attacker can be held legally responsible for his crimes. PST intelligence in Norway reported that Bråthen was a part of Norway’s healthcare system “for some time”. The 37-year-old had converted to Islam, with many leading to believe that he had been radicalized. The attack has been considered a terror attack. Citizens criticized the delayed response of the police at the scene of the crime. (“Norway attack: Killer held in medical custody amid mental health investigation,” BBC, 16 October 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM 
Sir Amess’s murder deemed an act of terrorism 
The killing of MP Sir David Amess has been declared a terrorist incident by the Police. A 25-year-old man has been arrested over suspicion. Police deem the attacker to have a potential link to Islamist extremism. Amess’ attack is the second in line, preceded by the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox in 2016. The suspect’s motivation to kill has been linked to using violence to further the cause. There is a potential of police deeply engaging in the personal life of the suspect. There is a requirement for more resources to continue the investigation; thus an increase in staff and detectives is likely. (Doug Faulkner and Alex Kleiderman, “Sir David Amess killing was terrorism, police say,” BBC, 16 October 2021)

FRANCE
Smugglers create increased migration within the Channel
Described as playing chess, border patrol authorities noted the wastage of resources to counter smugglers outfoxing France and the UK at the Channel. Despite heavy investment from both countries, more than 18,000 people have managed to cross borders this year. Most migrant boats have been successfully crossing the Channel. The smugglers are prone to diversion, given their potential to extend operations through different routes. The UK had promised to boost security along the coast, providing USD 75 million funding. The smugglers have been reported to use security forces along the coastline. They also threaten the migrants who talk to the media. The network uses bigger boats and a larger number of migrants. Authorities reported trouble in controlling larger crowds, given some migrants turned aggressive. France is facing increased pressure from the UK to safeguard its borders and take up effort to tackle the problem. (Lucy Williamson, “Channel smugglers step up risks to outfox France and UK,” BBC, 16 October 2021)

ITALY
Rome: Anti-fascist protest gathers thousands
On 16 October, the streets of Rome were filled with thousands protesting the rising fascism in Italy. Various trade union members also participated as the protest comes a week after right-wing groups charged into trade union headquarters. Holding banners that read: “No more fascism: For work, participation and democracy.” The amount of people gathered, however, varied according to the sources; the organizers put it at 100,000 while the media estimated around 50,000 demonstrators. Heavy policing and deployment of security forces was also seen. (“Italy: Thousands descend on Rome for anti-fascist protest,” Deutsche Welle, 16 October 2021)

REGIONAL
Merkel’s farewell visit to Turkey
On 16 October, outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Conducting her farewell visit in Istanbul, Merkel was commended by Erdogan for always having a “reasonable and solution-oriented approach.” He also hoped that the successive German government would maintain cooperation with Turkey and wished them “every success.” The talks between Merkel and Erdogan primarily focused on migration and the EU-Ankara refugee agreement. The EU-Turkey refugee pact provides Ankara with financial aid while it harbours migrants, thus, minimizing the number of those that cross into the EU. Merkel was also reported to have appealed to Erdogan to reconsider accepting more Afghan refugees. However, Erdogan has denied the additional EUR 3 billion that the EU proposed for the same, refusing to take in additional refugees. (“Merkel meets Erdogan during farewell stop in Istanbul,” Deutsche Welle, 16 October 2021)

BREXIT
Lord Frost unsatisfied with latest EU proposal
On 15 October, the UK’s Brexit Minister David Frost accused the EU of not “yielding enough.” He maintained: “All I can say is the governance issue needs to be addressed seriously and if the EU is willing to have a conversation about that on which they move off existing positions obviously we will be happy to have that conversation.” The UK’s dissatisfaction arises from the EU’s refusal to remove the European Court of Justice (ECJ) from the bilateral dealings. The UK rejects the ECJ rulings claiming that they no longer come under its purview and that it is biased. On 13 October, the EU released its proposal providing concessions on the previous deal. It included reduced customs checks and other paperwork on goods from the UK moving into Northern Ireland. (Nik Martin, “UK Brexit minister: EU must yield more on Northern Ireland,” Deutsche Welle, 15 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #12, 15 October 2021, Friday

Addressing the Energy prices in Europe: The new EU proposal 

Holocaust survivor Eddie Jaku dies; UK MP stabbed at constituency meeting; Russia denies weaponizing natural gas

Photo : PA Media/BBC


IN FOCUS  
By Joeana Cera Matthews

EU’s plan to deal with the European energy price crisis
On 13 October, the European Union proposed a ‘toolbox’ that would address the energy price crisis that has left countries across Europe in a fix. The toolbox unveiled by the EU expects to reduce the impact of the inflating prices on consumers. The bloc members would, in this manner, be able to stabilize the energy rates. The EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson expressed his concern over the mounting prices which are affecting the bloc which is still only recovering from the pandemic.  

What are the tools?
The proposal includes measures that would regard both immediate as well as medium-term ideas to manage the skyrocketing prices. Some of the immediate measures include: safeguarding electricity grids to avoid disconnections, provision of aid to companies and industries based on the EU law, and looking for anti-competitive behaviour. These measures aim to protect consumers and the businesses from the growing prices. The medium-term measures focus on enhancing market resilience while backing efforts to decarbonize. They involve exploring the possibility of members jointly procuring gas, establishing regional risk-analyzing groups to inspect cross-border gas transit, and forming energy storage capacities. Further negotiations on the same are expected to be held during an EU Summit on 21 and 22 October.

What is the need for these tools?
As Simson stated: “The current situation is exceptional, and the internal energy market has served us well for the past 20 years. But we need to be sure that it continues to do so in the future.” The tools enable members to reduce prices without being worried about breaching strict competition rules. Few countries across the bloc have already shown initiative to implement the tools proposed by the EU. In an effort to curb prices, France assured a ceiling price along with plans to offer impoverished households with financial support. Italy, meanwhile, had already planned on tax reductions to ease the economic strain on the consumers.

How effective are these tools?
According to a report by Clean Energy Wire, the German chemical industry claims that the toolbox may assist the consumers and protect them from ‘energy poverty’; the businesses and energy-intensive companies will fail to be supported in a similar manner. Head of the Low Carbon and Circular Economy program at the Institute for European Environmental Policy, Tim Gore, commented that renewable energy is the only long-term solution in sight. In order to achieve this goal, he suggests there be tax cuts on electricity. According to Gore: “It would make most sense for governments to cut taxes on electricity, which would be in line with the longer-term reforms to energy taxation to support the electrification of the economy, which is vital for the green transition.” Providing buyers with replacements to fossil fuels is another suggestion. The more apparent the transition to renewable energy becomes to the consumer, the faster it will occur. 

References
Kerstine Appunn, “EU toolbox against energy price hike not enough, says German energy intensive industry,” Clean Energy Wire, 14 October 2021  

Richard Connor, “EU unveils toolbox against high energy prices,” Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2021


IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer

THE UNITED KINGDOM
MP stabbed in a constituency meeting
Sir David Amess, a conservative MP was stabbed in a constituency meeting in Leigh-on-Sea. Officers arrested a man, and recovered a knife. They said they were “not looking for anyone else in connection to the incident”. Sir Duncan, a former party leader expressed his grief. Southend councillor Lamb remembered Amess as a daily man, who was “always trying to help people, and especially refugees.” A social conservative raised as a Roman Catholic, he was a strong campaigner against abortion and animal welfare issues. The MP was operated at the scene but succumbed to his injuries. (“Tory MP Sir David Amess dies after stabbing,” BBC, 15 October 2021)

RUSSIA
Russia denies using gas as a weapon
Putin reassured the EU stating Russia was not using gas as a weapon. The country stepped in to stabilize Europe’s gas prices amidst the gas crisis Europe is facing. The energy crunch has amplified the required tripling investment to steady the renewables market. Countries like China have boosted coal and fossil fuel exports. Russia offered to increase supplies in the European markets and denied any political interests. The European skepticism comes due to Russia’s insistence on opening up Nord Stream 2 to facilitate a faster gas supply to Europe. (“ Russia can help Europe, not using gas as a weapon says Putin,” Reuters, 15 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 
Eddie Jaku passes away
Imprisoned in four concentration camps, during the second world war, Eddie Jaku freed himself leading a daring train escape. The 101-year-old had dedicated his life to activism, and advocating peace and kindness. His memoir titled The Happiest Man on Earth, contained his extraordinary story of survival. He said: “I do not hate anyone. Hate is a disease which may destroy your enemy, but will also destroy you.” Jaku had endured the trauma of the holocaust, and decided to live the rest of his life preaching forgiveness and peace. Jaku received the medal of the Order of Australia for serving the Jewish community. (“Eddie Jaku: Holocaust survivor and peace campaigner dies aged 101,” BBC, 15 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #11, 14 October 2021, Thursday

Czech elections: Andrej Babis' defeat emboldens anti-populism

EU proposes cutting down post-Brexit border checks; Italy strictions COVID pass rules; Norway' supposed 'terror attack'; China warns the UK over Taiwan; Greece in flood and mudslides; Georgians protest for Saakashvili's release

Photo : PetrDavidJosek-AP


IN FOCUS  
By Vaishnavi Iyer


Czech election results yield a loss to Babis' populism 
Andrej Babis' ANO party seems to be losing the re-election bid. The billionaire Czech Prime Minister stood against two opposing coalitions that may win 108 out of 200 seats. The groups declared that they would not work with Babis. The opposition is set to begin coalition talks. A Reuters election tally saw ANO with 27.2 per cent and right coalition Spolu with 27.7 per cent, and the liberal Pirates and PirStan with 15.5 per cent. Thus, it is mathematically difficult for ANO to win the elections. 

In office since December 2017, Mr Babis had sought another four years in power by pledging to further raise public sector wages and pensions, as well as criticizing the EU and migration. The recent Pandora Paper leaks contained Babi's name, to which he responded by saying that he has done nothing wrong or illegal. He insisted it was an attempt at manipulating voters. With anti-Eu rhetoric, Babis' aggressive campaign focused on denouncing EU carbon reduction targets and deploying anti-immigration policies. He also faced allegations of mismanaging the pandemic. Research by John Hopkins stated, the Czech Republic recorded 1.7 million infections and claimed 30,000 lives. This made it the country with the seventh-highest deaths per capita. The far-right German party, with a referendum on the EU exit, did not gain any new seats. Without a Bibis government, the party may lose its say in Czech politics.  

Future Prospects 
Populist leaders like Babis have seemed invincible in the past. This year too, the leader took an attempt for another four years. Such leaders have begun rising to power as a global trend. Most of Central and Eastern Europe are ruled by strongman leaders, defying democratic norms. This year, the opposition, with contrasting ideologies, joined to defeat Babis in an attempt to restore democracy. The wave is likely to spread around Europe to other regions of Hungary and Poland, where acts by similar leaders have threatened democracy. These leaders have reflected an anti-EU sentiment, forging unified countries. The Babis defeat indicates a "debatable" nature of the survival of populism. 

Loss for LGBTQ Equality
While the elections indicate a populist loss, the remaining five parties are likely to form a new right-wing government. LGBTQ+ rights have only been advocated by the Pirate Party, with four MPs. The new conservative majority might be a regression on the LGBTQ+ community. Christian democrats and the SPD, which is an openly queer phobic party, are unlikely to advocate for legislation in favour of the community. The Czech Republic has withheld the EU push for depatholaization. The country continues the practice of forced sterilization of trans people. The new potential government seems unlikely to support hate crime laws, and access to healthcare for the LGBTQ+ community. 

References
"
Czech elections: PM Andrej Babis looks set to lose power," BBC, 14 October 2021.

Andrew Higgins, "Czechs defeat a populist, offering a road map for toppling strongmen," The New York Times, 14 October 2021.

"Czech voters decide on PM Babis's future in two-day election," Al Jazeera, 14 October 2021.
 


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

NORWAY
Bow-and-arrow attack leaves five dead
On 13 October, the Norwegian security service said that they could not yet confirm the motives of the man who attacked the people of Kongsberg with a bow and arrows; alleging that the possibility of it being an 'act of terror' is not out of the question. Along with the bow and arrows, other weapons were also utilized. The suspect, who has been previously flagged a 'dangerous' Islamic extremist, was identified as Espen Anderson Bråthen. Along with the five fatalities, three others were injured via the 37-year-old's attack. Norwegian public broadcaster NRK revealed that Bråthen was given a six-month restraining order last year, forbidding him from approaching two family members as he had threatened to kill one of them. As of now, Bråthen is believed to have acted of his own will, and the attack has not been termed a 'terrorist attack'. Bråthen was arrested after a 'confrontation' and is yet to be formally charged. Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre termed the attack "horrific". Bråthen is expected to be presented before the court on 15 October. (Jon Henley, "Norway bow-and-arrow attack 'appears to be act of terror'," The Guardian, 14 October 2021; "Suspect in Norway bow-and-arrow attack was flagged for radicalization," France24, 14 October 2021)

ITALY

Mandatory COVID pass for workers; a crisis of staff shortage looms
Italy is set to witness further unrest and market mayhem as it prepares to impose the mandatory requirement of COVID passes from 15 October. Termed the 'strictest vaccine mandate in Europe', the move is expected to create a crisis of staff shortages in several workplaces across Italy. The violation of the rule will see deviants being suspended as well as losing pay or being fined EUR 1500; employers will be fined if they leave the staff unchecked for law compliance. The green pass is encouraged with the motive of boosting vaccination rates, reducing infections, and basically avoiding another lockdown. An estimated 2.5 million Italians are yet to be inoculated; most of these are above the age of 50. Critics of the pass prepare to protest against the ruling soon. (Angela Giuffrida, "Italy braced for unrest as Covid pass becomes mandatory for all workers," The Guardian, 14 October 2021)

GREECE

Evia: After wildfires, flood and mudslides affect island
The Greek Island of Evia is now being affected by storms and heavy rains after being devastated by wildfires. It was only a week ago when regions across Greece were being devoured by fires. According to the national observatory, a third of the fire-stricken area was in northern Evia. More than 200 homes have been destroyed over the weekend with roads blocked and mudslides flowing into the sea. The Guardian reported: "The Mediterranean has been singled out as a wildfire hotspot, with forest fires erupting from France to Turkey over the summer." The series of natural disasters affecting the country has left them likening the events to that of a biblical catastrophe. (Helena Smith, "Fire-ravaged Greek island of Evia hit by floods and mudslides," The Guardian, 14 October 2021)

GEORGIA     

Tbilisi: Thousands march in support of Saakashvili
On 14 October, approximately 50,000 demonstrators gathered in Tbilisi's Freedom Square and main thoroughfare Rustaveli Avenue. Calling on the release of Georgia's ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili, the protesters chanted his nickname 'Misha!' while waving national flags. Saakashvili is said to have declared a hunger strike as his doctors remain concerned about his diminishing health. Saakashvili, the founder of Georgia's opposition United National Movement, had asked his supporters to rally against his primary opponent Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is also the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream Party. Saakashvili's treatment by Georgian authorities has raised concerns in the West with the US considering sanctions against those officials causing democracy to deteriorate. ("Tens of thousands of Georgians rally for release of ex-president Saakashvili," France24, 14 October 2021) 

BREXIT

EU to tone down on Northern Ireland border controls
On 13 October, the EU proposed to cut down on the extended checks done on goods coming into Northern Ireland from the UK. This decision comes after the European Commission Vice President Maros Šefčovič's visit to Northern Ireland earlier this month. The proposal addresses the concerns raised by Northern Ireland officials. Following the release of the proposal, Šefčovič said: "I have listened to and engaged with Northern Irish stakeholders. Today's proposals are our genuine response to their concerns." On 12 October, the UK's Brexit negotiator Lord Frost had proposed plans for a completely new protocol to replace the existing one calling it "a better way forward"; this garnered a lot of criticism. The UK government is said to be 'studying' the latest EU proposal; observers claim that the proposal will not satisfy the UK's expectations. The UK and EU are expected to have 'intensive talks' in the coming weeks regarding the same. (John Campbell and Colm Kelpie, "Brexit: Most NI checks on British goods to be scrapped," BBC, 14 October 2021; "Brexit: EU proposes nixing most Northern Ireland checks," Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL

China warns UK Foreign Secretary over Taiwan statement
On 14 October, the new UK foreign secretary Liz Truss was warned by a Chinese spokesman to manage its "One China" stance "properly." The warning comes post a meeting UK had earlier in the week with China's primary aggravator Lithuania, and the other two Baltic states. China regards Lithuania to be its primary 'foe' considering its close ties with Taiwan. A joint statement released by them stated: "(we) remain principled on our shared values in the face of the systematic challenges posed by China." The Chinese embassy also commented on the developments: "China urges the UK to have a right understanding of the relevant issue, handle it properly, and refrain from creating new obstacles for the development of the China-UK relationship." (Stuart Lau, "China warns UK's Truss not to imperil ties over Taiwan spat," POLITICO, 14 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #10, 13 October 2021, Wednesday

The G20 Extraordinary Leaders' meeting on Afghanistan 

Spanish-right defends colonial past; Merkel and Xi's farewell call; Serbs clash with Kosovo police; NCSC chief says Russia behind cyber-attacks; Poland's ruling against EU law primacy comes into force

Photo : g20.org


IN FOCUS  
By Vaishnavi Iyer

G20 leaders' meeting to deliberate on the Afghan crisis; Provide humanitarian aid
On 12 October, Italy hosted an emergency G20 virtual summit on the situation in Afghanistan. The meeting focused on Afghanistan's humanitarian, economic, and security situations. Leaders from all countries attended the meeting, except China and Russia, who sent their representatives. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said: "There has basically been a convergence of views on the need to address the humanitarian emergency." Draghi also highlighted the multilateral approach taken to resolve the crisis and said: "This was the first multilateral response to the Afghan crisis … multilateralism is coming back, with difficulty, but it is coming back." Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan, insisted on cooperation from the international community. He made no comments on the secondary education for girls, which was discontinued. 

In a joint statement, the leaders urged the Taliban to address extremist organizations within the country. The safety of people wishing to leave Afghanistan and the situation of female education were also discussed. Most leaders expressed their wish to coordinate over the crisis. It was also confirmed that the Taliban government had not yet been officially recognized by the member countries. The Taliban, according to Erdogan, have not yet provided what was expected of them. Merkel underlined the international community's responsibility of providing help to stop the instability. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "We must do all we can to avert a major humanitarian and socio-economic collapse in Afghanistan." Previously, French President Emmanuel Macron had prompted the G20 members to send a "clear message" to the Taliban over its questions on international recognition, status of women in the country and international humanitarian assistance. He also emphasized on combating Islamist terror groups.

The European Union pledged a USD 1.15 billion aid to address what it called a 'catastrophe'. The funds for humanitarian aid would be channelled through the United Nations, while a few countries would also provide for direct assistance. The EU pledge is substantial, exceeding its budget prior to the Taliban's control of Afghanistan. The EU declared that it would direct its aid to foreign groups working on the ground rather than the Taliban. Afghanistan was reliant on humanitarian aid, particularly from the United States, preceding the Taliban's control. With the takeover, the US halted most foreign aid and froze close to USD 10 billion in assets. At the United Nations Donor conference, the US announced a smaller amount of USD 64 million. Draghi proposed that the US contribute USD 300 million at the G20 summit. The White House stated that the same sum has already been allocated for help this year. The statement from the White House said: "The United States remains committed to working closely with the international community and using diplomatic, humanitarian, and economic means to address the situation in Afghanistan and support the Afghan people".

Why are countries responding?
The European Union response pertains to tensions of spillover migration. Italy emphasized the Taliban's ability to limit foreign intervention in Afghanistan. Aid is "necessary" to avoid humanitarian disaster and prevent "uncontrolled migration flows from Afghanistan to neighbouring nations and beyond," according to an Italian government statement on the summit. The US has pledged to continue its counter-terrorism activities alongside ISIS-K threats and to assist people in safely evacuating.

The UK and US did not respond to China's proposal to ease sanctions on Afghanistan in the joint statement.

Did the responses differ country-wise?
The largest economies in the summit did not participate with measures substantial to counter the Afghan crisis. The member countries have been aligned in not providing the Taliban government an official recognition. The challenge lies in the management of preconditions for diplomatic recognition. Given their relations with the Taliban government, China and Russia would have a lower threshold as compared to Western countries to diplomatically recognize the Taliban government. Moreover, countries may diverge on issues relating to resuming international developmental aid to be given to the Taliban to counter the economic crisis. The joint statement declared: "The Taliban will be judged on their deeds." The international community needs to collaborate on the Afghan crisis and maintain standard protocols over the Taliban government recognition. 

References

"Macron: G20 must send Taliban clear message on price of recognition," Reuters, 5 October 2021.

"G-20 emergency meeting on Afghanistan yields $1.5 billion in aid from EU but no other comparable pledges," The Washington Post, 12 October 2021.

"G20 agrees aid to avert Afghanistan humanitarian crisis," Al Jazeera, 13 October 2021.



IN BRIEF  
By Joeana Cera Matthews

SPAIN
Biden mocked as Spain revels in its colonial past
On 11 October, marking the US Columbus Day holiday, the US President Joe Biden said that Columbus' arrival led to a "wave of devastation" for the inhabitants of the land. He also called for instituting an Indigenous People's Day along with the existing Columbus Day. However, these comments were not taken well by the Spanish right-wing politicians. In fact, the leader of the conservative People's Party (PP) Pablo Casado took pride in Spain's colonial expansion and said that it was the "most important event in history after the Roman empire." The Vox party leader Santiago Abascal even called Biden "the lamentable president of the United States." Spain has in recent times become more unapologetic about its colonial past; despite maintaining close ties with its former colonies, several in Latin America claim that Spain is yet to acknowledge the human rights violations committed in the region. (Guy Hedgecoe, "Spanish right attacks Biden over Columbus and conquests," BBC, 13 October 2021)

REGIONAL
Ethnic Serbs clash with Kosovo police
On 13 October, border tensions between Kosovo and Serbia intensified after six police officials and at least 10 Serbs were injured during raids targeting smuggling gangs in northern Kosovo. The region, which is predominantly inhabited by ethnic Serbs, witnessed angered Serbs blocking roads and attacking Kosovo police, who retaliated with tear gas and stun grenades. The raids which were done against suspected smugglers concluded with eight arrests. Following the clash, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic visited the southern Serbian town of Raska and promised the Serbs from northern Kosovo of Belgrade's support. However, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said: "Crime and criminal groups will not be tolerated and will be fought. We will fight and stop the smuggling." ("Kosovo Serbs clash with police over smuggler arrests," Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2021)

Poland: Controversial ruling against the EU comes into force
On 12 October, the landmark ruling by the Polish Constitutional Court against the primacy of the EU law came into force. Largely criticized by the EU and its members, the declaration was published in the Official Gazette. The law which threatens the very foundation of EU law, has raised suspicions of Poland wanting to leave the EU bloc like the UK did. It has even been termed 'Polexit' in line with the UK's 'Brexit'. The EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell commented: "It has to clear: You are a member of a club, you have to abide by the rules of the club. And the most important rule of the club is that the European law is over national law." ("Poland: Top court ruling against EU law comes into force," Deutsche Welle, 12 October 2021)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Russia and neighbouring countries responsible for UK cyber-attacks claims head of NCSC
During the Chatham House Cyber 2021 conference, the chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) Lindy Cameron said that ransomware attacks presented the "most immediate danger" to UK businesses. She went on to claim that Russian-based and neighbouring states' cyber-criminals caused the majority of the online extortion against the UK. The NCSC head also said that China presented significant issues in the subject as well. Cameron maintained that ransomware as a strategy would remain appealing as long as organizations continued to be weak and people agreed to pay; it would simply encourage such groups. In a defensive attempt, the UK has proposed several techniques and the establishment of the National Cyber Force, is just one among them. Cameron's remarks are one of the firmest yet to affirm Russian involvement in the series of online extortions. (Dan Sabbagh, "Russia and neighbours are source of most ransomware, says UK cyber chief," The Guardian, 11 October 2021; Gordon Corera, "UK cyber head says Russia responsible for 'devastating' ransomware attacks," BBC, 12 October 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
Merkel's farewell call to Xi; "Merkel a friend of the Chinese" says Xi
On 13 October, outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a farewell video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. They covered ground on the pandemic, climate change, as well as human rights. According to the German government spokesperson, they also discussed the imminent G20 summit and the EU-China investment agreement. They also acknowledged the marking of 50 years of German-Chinese relations in 2022. According to CGTN, Xi called Merkel a "friend of the Chinese people," while inviting her to visit China once she left office. The phrase made her join others like ex-US President Richard Nixon and former Cuban leader Fidel Castro who were also termed to be friends of the Chinese. However, Merkel called on German firms to diversify their trade in the Asia-Pacific in a separate event, saying: "We should not overlook that the Asia-Pacific is more than just China." Despite this, Merkel has often been criticized for being too soft on China, especially regarding its alleged human rights abuses. ("Germany's Angela Merkel holds farewell call with Chinese President Xi,' Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2021; Stuart Lau, "Merkel joins Castro, Nixon in ranks of China's 'old friends'," POLITICO, 13 October)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #09, 12 October 2021, Tuesday

The French-Algerian bilateral tensions

Fishing row between the EU and UK intensify; Normandy format talks expected; Macron's 'France 2030' green investment plan; English Channel migrant crossings; Footballers threaten data collection firms

Photo : aa.com.tr


IN FOCUS  
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Algeria demands 'total respect' from France following remarks by Macron
Following a diplomatic row over visas and remarks from Paris, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune demanded "total respect" from France. Algeria had recalled its ambassador from Paris following "inadmissible" remarks by President Emmanuel Macron. Critical comments from Macron surrounding Algerian history sparked tensions. The Algerian government responded by prohibiting French military planes from entering its airspace. Tebboune said: "We forget that it [Algeria] was once a French colony...History should not be falsified." 

The comments mentioned in Le Monde, report Macron stating that Algeria was governed by a "political-military system". Algeria's official history has been rewritten, according to Macron, to encourage anti-French sentiment. According to the newspaper, the remarks were directed at Algeria's ruling elite rather than Algerian society as a whole. 

The French-Algerian spat erupted over the French government's unilateral decision to impose visa restrictions on Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco. The visa limitations were imposed in reaction to the Algerian government's refusal to accept unauthorized migrants. In response, Algeria withdrew their French ambassador. Macron expressed his wish to have cordial relations with Algeria. Admitting France's mistreatment of Harkis, he asked for "forgiveness" from the families of Algerians who fought alongside the French. Around tens of thousands of Harkis were killed with the French evacuation. The Harkis were denied resettlement in France and were mostly ostracized. In his speech asking for forgiveness, Macron stated the French attempt to "bandage" wounds through "words of truth". His government pledged EUR 4.71 million with pension provisions and laws to protect the children of Harkis. The address elicited mixed responses. Media reports on Macron's address to the descendants of Algeria's 1954-1962 War of Independence were met with heavy criticisms, as Algeria reminded France of the "genocides" committed by French colonizers. The remarks made by Macron were seen as interfering in Algeria's internal affairs. The Algerian government insisted on the recognition of the shared colonial history of Algeria and France. 

While Macron hopes for talks in the future, Algeria has declared that the return of its ambassador to France is contingent on France paying "full respect" to Algeria. The bilateral relations between France and Algeria got complicated when Macron in 2020, tasked Benjamin Stora, a historian to prepare a report about France's colonial legacy in Algeria. The report was criticized heavily due to its biased nature and absence of recommendations to issue apologies or reparations to the victims. With Macron's speech, France is faced with challenges on the social justice front, by denying history to the oppressed. Moreover, the opportunity cost is not only social but even based on security concerns since French military planes located jihadists in the Sahel region through the Algerian airspace, which is now banned for France. As the relations of the countries strain over historical and contemporary differences, the French response is awaited.

References

"Macron apologises to Algerians who fought with French colonisers," Euronews, 20 September 2021

"Algeria demands France's 'total respect': President," Al Jazeera, 12 October 2021

"Algeria's Tebboune says envoy will only return if France shows 'total respect'," France24, 10 October 2021


IN BRIEF  
By Joeana Cera Matthews

FRANCE
Macron's EUR 30 billion worth Green Investment Plan
On 12 October, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled his EUR 30 billion plan saying that France intends to be a green hydrogen leader, build low-carbon planes, and small nuclear reactors by 2030. Also called the 'France 2030', the plan would ensure French industrial decarbonization accompanied with greater innovation. The opposition was highly critical of the reveal, which comes only six months prior to the elections, terming it electoral campaigning. However, Macron denied such claims, maintaining that 'productive independence of Europe and France' was the priority; he intends to reduce French reliance on foreign imports. Criticisms came from all corners, with environmental group Greenpeace calling the plan "a festival of false solutions and wishful thinking." (Leigh Thomas and Benoit Van Overstraeten, "Macron unveils 30-bln euro plan for innovation and industrial revival," Reuters, 12 October 2021; Giorgio Leali, "Macron's €30B end-of-term bet to make France great again," POLITICO, 12 October 2021) 

REGIONAL

Ukraine Conflict: Germany, France, Russia hopes to have talks
On 11 October, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron along with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conversed via phone. Merkel and Macron expressed hopes of having talks, preferably in the Normandy format, to figure out solutions to the Donbass region conflict in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin also showed interest in the same by calling for talks with Germany and France; however, nothing was mentioned about Ukraine's participation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen along with the European Council President Charles Michel is expected to visit Kyiv on 12 October. ("Germany, France and Russia may hold summit on Ukraine conflict," Deutsche Welle, 12 October 2021) 

Brexit: 14 EU member states issue threatening declaration against the UK
A joint statement against the UK, alleging them to have risked "significant economic and social damage" to fishing communities, is being prepared by 14 EU member states. Supposedly organized by French minister for the seas Annick Giardin, the signatories to the declaration includes France, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Cyprus, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal, Malta, Lithuania, and Latvia. The statement of solidarity comes after the UK and Jersey governments angered the French by reducing the number of licenses provided to small boats fishing in coastal waters. The declaration is a veiled threat, providing a glimpse into what the future of EU-UK relations would resemble, if Britain fails to reconsider its stance. (Daniel Boffey and Lisa O'Carroll, "EU member states to issue joint warning to UK over reduced fishing rights," The Guardian, 11 October 2021)

MIGRATION

English Channel Crossing sees 364 more reach Kent 
On 10 October, eleven boats containing 324 migrants arrived at Kent. This follows around 1,115 crossing across the English Channel on 7 and 8 October. French authorities also stopped around 500 migrants in 16 vessels, attempting to cross over. There have been 300 arrests and 65 convictions related to small-boat crossing this year alone, according to the Home Office. ("Migrant crossings: Channel boats bring 364 more people,' BBC, 12 October 2021) 

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Footballers threaten data collection industry with 'letters before action'
850 players have initiated legal action against the data collection industry claiming that data was misused. The footballers, led by Cardiff City, Leyton Orient, and the Yeovil Town manager, have sought compensation since their performance data has been traded for the last 6 years. They also expect to be paid an annual fee if their data is used in the future. 17 firms have been hit with 'letters before action', accusing them of breaching the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) rules. If the players intend to move forward with the legal action, it would imply a significant change for the data collection industry. (Nick Hartley, "Professional footballers threaten data firms with GDPR legal action,' BBC, 12 October 2021)


NIAS Europe Daily Brief #08, 11 October 2021, Monday

Austria: The Sebastian Kurz Scandal

Protests over Italy’s “green pass”; Hungary supports Polish court ruling; La Palma volcano partially collapses; Rallies over Polexit rumours

Photo : EPA/BBC


IN FOCUS 
By Joeana Cera Matthews

Austria: The Sebastian Kurz Scandal
On 06 October, Austria witnessed prosecutors raiding the chancellery, the foreign ministry and the headquarters of the conservative People's Party (ÖVP). The raid was conducted after accusations by the Prosecutor's Office for Economic Affairs and Corruption claimed that funds from the Foreign Ministry were misused by ÖVP. This was allegedly done by a tabloid newspaper – Osterreich – between 2016 and 2018 to portray Chancellor Sebastian Kurz in a favourable light. The media house has repeatedly denied allegations against them, saying that they are "evidently serious misunderstandings", while Kurz has maintained that the claims are 'baseless'.

Sebastian Kurz's association with corruption charges is not something new. The continent's youngest leader back in 2017, Kurz has led the Austrian People's Party to victory, after which he became its head. Since then, he transitioned from foreign minister to finally become the Chancellor. However, over the years, Kurz has been the target of a series of allegations; it raises the question of how he achieved the popularity that characterized him.

Since the corruption scandal, Kurz has reiterated his ignorance of any such propaganda and has refused to accept that he violated the law. Legal proceedings may drag on for years affecting his populist image.

Denial and 'chaos prevention'
After claims of corruption were charged, Kurz himself decided to step down and proposed that the Foreign Minister since 2019 – Alexander Schallenberg – take his place as Chancellor. Announcing his resignation, Kurz said: "What's required now is stability. To resolve the impasse I want to step aside to prevent chaos."

Threats from junior coalition partner, the Greens party, to dismantle the government or to back a 12 October no-confidence vote in the parliament, forced Kurz's resignation on 09 October. They requested ÖVP to nominate an "irreproachable person" to replace Kurz. The coalition is expected to hold even after the transition. 

The resignation however, as CGTN pointed out, is one that is 'more a matter of form than substance in terms of policy'. He intends to "disprove the allegations" against him while retaining power as head of the ruling party; implying his continuation in parliament. Kurz is most likely to steer the coalition, as Schallenberg is a close ally of his. Schallenberg, who has already had talks with President Alexander Van der Bellen, was sworn into office on 11 October.

A larger European problem?
On 08 October, Van der Bellen addressed the nation and said that: "we have a crisis of government, not a crisis of state." The ÖVP- Greens coalition which came to power in 2020, has been dragged in to several corruption scandals. The manipulation of the political system to produce favourable conditions for leaders is not a singular incident. Despite being well-established populist democracies, countries across Europe saw eminent leaders going down for allegations of corruption. From Nicolas Sarkozy in France to Andrej Babis in Czech Republic, leaders in question had big reputations to go along with. As The Economist stated, Kurz's case proves that systemic corruption is not limited to formerly communist countries.

Although, the existence of corruption in itself points to the lack of a healthy democracy; if one were to see these incidents through rose-coloured glasses, the ability of the rule of law to remove or conduct trials on leaders despite their pristine (or otherwise) reputations could be considered the sign of a healthy democracy. 

References:

Marton Eder, "Austria Poised for New Leader Even as Shadow of Kurz Lingers," Bloomberg Quint, 11 October 2021  

"Governments fall as the EU battles corruption," The Economist, 10 October 2021 

"Austria's Kurz announces resignation amid corruption investigation," CGTN, 10 October 2021 

"Austrian chancellor Kurz resigns to save his party's coalition," CGTN, 10 October 2021 

"Sebastian Kurz: Austrian leader resigns amid corruption inquiry," BBC, 10 October 2021 

"Austria: Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg to take over chancellorship," Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2021 

Melissa Eddy, "Sebastian Kurz, Austria's Chancellor, Faces Corruption Probe," The New York Times, 08 October 2021 

"Austria's Chancellor Sebastian Kurz being investigated for corruption," CGTN, 06 October 2021
 


IN BRIEF  
By Vaishnavi Iyer

ITALY
Protests erupt over Italy's "green pass"
In Rome, more than 10,000 people gathered to protest the Italian "green pass." From 15 October, every employee in the private and public sectors will be obliged to obtain a 'green pass,' which is a certification. People must indicate that they have had at least one dose of COVID-19 immunization, that they have recovered from the disease, or that they have tested negative. The anti-vaccine demonstration quickly devolved into riots. A total of 12 persons were detained. Right-wing leaders Nuova, Castellino, and Fiore were all present at the protests. Protesters encircled Mario Draghi's office, while a handful stormed the Italian General Confederation of Labour headquarters (CGIL). The masses chanted "freedom" slogans. Condemning the violence, the prime minister pledged trade unions securing workers' rights. People would be punished if they intimidate any trade union member. In a statement issued by this office he said: "The right to demonstrate to support one's ideas can never degenerate into acts of aggression and intimidation," ("Italy: Police arrest far-right leaders after anti-vaccine riots," Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2021)

HUNGARY
Hungary supports Polish court ruling
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban signed a resolution endorsing the Polish court ruling that gave Polish national law precedence over EU laws. The Hungarian resolution accuses the EU of abusing its powers. According to Orban, the Hungarian resolution is the result of "bad practice by European institutions." Part of the resolution states: "Efforts are being made to deprive member states of powers they never ceded to the EU without amending the EU treaties and through creeping extensions of competences." ("Hungary: Orban signs resolution supporting Polish court ruling," Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2021)

SPAIN
La Palma volcano partially collapses
Spain's National Geological Institute (ING) has been monitoring a new lava flow in the island of La Palma. The volcano has been erupting for the past three weeks. In the villages of Mazo, Fuencaliente, and El Paso, 21 seismic movements were detected. The largest earthquake measured 3.8 on the Richter scale. The eruption has resulted in a large lava flow, some of which has reached the ocean. Some of the volcanic material made its way into the ocean, forming a 38-hectare land. Because of toxic gases, authorities have sealed off the maritime area. According to reports, if the new land continues to grow, it may break off into the sea, causing explosions, large waves, and gas emissions. (Silvio Castellanos and Juan Medina, "Lava blocks the size of buildings falling from La Palma volcano," Reuters, 10 October 2021)

GERMANY

Merkel makes her final trip to Israel 
Angela Merkel made her final trip to Israel as Germany's Chancellor. This was her eighth trip to the country during her 16-year presidency. She stated that the security of Israel is the top priority for "every German government". Israel has received widespread support throughout her tenure. She paid a visit to Jerusalem's Holocaust memorial after meeting with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Laying a wreath at the memorial, she expressed her gratitude and support for the Jewish life that found "a home again in Germany" after the Holocaust atrocities. Bennet emphasized Germany's genuine friendship while praising Merkel's leadership. Israel also expressed its desire to enter into deeper bilateral ties with Germany in business relations, science, education, health, and security. During the visit, Merkle called for Russian and Chinese cooperation to address Iran's nuclear deal ("Merkel touts Germany-Israel relations at Bennett meeting," Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2021). 

POLAND

Rallies over Polexit rumours 
Polexit speculations sparked protests in Warsaw's historic centre. Protesters chanted "we are staying!", "We are Europeans!" in a display of defiance. Thousands of people gathered to protest in Castel Square, which quickly extended to other parts of Poland. Donald Tusk has encouraged people to protest in response to a new Polish law that supersedes EU laws. Tusk told the Polish people that a "pseudo court" would decide to expel Poland from the EU, which would be against the Polish Constitution. "We want a free, law-abiding, democratic, and fair Poland," he stated. Analysts say there is widespread opposition to leaving the EU, but there is still no solution to the disputes over Poland's access to the EU funds. Following a warning from the EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni that the court case could affect the disbursement of Poland's pandemic recovery funding, Warsaw has accused the EU of "blackmail." The money could be given next month, according to EU officials, but only under rigorous law conditions. ("Poles rally to defend EU membership amid fear of 'Polexit'" Al Jazeera, 10 October 2021)

CLIMATE CHANGE

Belgium: Brussels witnesses climate change protests
Climate protesters, some without masks, took to the streets of Belgium dressed as endangered animals. With banners in multiple languages, the demonstrators demanded climate justice. "Politicians die of old age, Rosa died of climate change," read a banner referring to the death of a child in Europe due to torrential rains and floods. Thousands of people attended the protests, representing over 80 different organizations. At least 25,000 marchers were estimated by police, while organizers put the number at 70,000. The demonstration was the largest in Brussels since the outbreak began. The protests took place as a result of youth activists and environmentalists believing that politicians will fail to propose climate-friendly policies at the COP26 summit. ("Thousands march in Brussels to demand climate justice,' "Al Jazeera, 10 October 2021)


09 October 2021, Saturday

'Polexit' now?

Poland PM Mateusz Morawiecki's challenge to the EU legal norms sparks tensions between Brussels and Poland, leading to fears of a 'Polexit.'

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS 
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Poland: 'Polexit' a possibility with new Polish law reforms

On 7 October, in an unprecedented judgment, Poland declared that a few aspects of the EU legislation are incompatible with Polish national laws. It referred to the EU treaties and court decisions that contradicted Poland's highest law. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's challenge to the EU legal norms has sparked tensions between Brussels and Poland, leading to fears of a 'Polexit.'

Responses to Polexit rumours
France and Germany criticized Poland for its lack of formal commitment, referring to the reform as a "de facto risk." For the membership to be consistent, both countries' foreign ministries emphasized full and unequivocal respect to "common values and norms." Morawiecki and Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski retaliated by accusing Poland's opposition party of distributing "fake news" to manipulate voters. Acknowledging the transformation in the financial and single market landscape, they reaffirmed that Poland would not exit the EU. A member of the opposition, Donald Tusk, urged citizens to resist the reform. The European Union has cautioned against using full force against Poland.

The first objective, Von der Leyen stated, "is to ensure the rights of Polish citizens are protected and that Polish citizens enjoy the benefits granted by the membership of the European Union". Two of Morawiecki's long-time confidantes expressed anti-EU sentiments by referring to the current scenario as fighting the "Brussels occupier" and combating the Brussels bureaucracy's dictatorship.

Reasons for Polish ruling  
First, according to Patryk Wachowiec, the Prime Minister has been discussing protection against EU court judgments for the past six years. This verdict could provide some protection for Morawiecki's judicial changes, which went against EU directives. The following reason remains the rationale for a discussion on 'Polexit'. Morawiecki also appears to prevent Polish judges from criticizing new judicial appointments.

Second, it could be an attempt to use pressure to force a decision on the 57-billion-pound acquisition known as the Polish Deal. Poland is said to have felt betrayed by Brussels and may have passed the sentence in retaliation. Only if the verdict is published does it become binding. However, like past judgments, Poland has not published the decision.

'Polexit' now?
According to opinion polls, more than 80 per cent of citizens prefer to stay in the European Union. Despite the government's assurances, critics continue to promote protests in response to the ruling in order to deter any prospective exit. Poland has recently been at odds with the EU over anti-LGBTQ judgments, border difficulties, and mining activity along the Czech and German borders. Poland's scenario differs from that of the United Kingdom since there appears to be a prospect of an EU push for 'Polexit'. Hungary has previously stopped proceedings against Poland's disciplinary charges; nonetheless, the commission president is keen to use further means. The EU is likely to bring infringement proceedings against the ruling while discussing the Polish Deal. Both Poland and the EU are on the receiving end of a double-edged sword. The EU could keep the recovery fund, further fuelling anti-EU sentiment. If the fund is approved, any member will be able to bargain using similar reforms. For Poland, Brussels offers the option of remaining in the EU while adhering to its principles or leaving. In either case, the government will have to make compromises or would have to change. Thus, a Polexit seems highly unlikely.

References

"'Polexit' talk grows after Warsaw challenges Brussels over EU law," Financial Times, 9 October 2021
Adam Easton, "
Poland stokes fears of leaving EU in 'Polexit'," BBC, 9 October 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

LGBTQIA+
Spain: Gynaecologist diagnoses woman with 'homosexuality'; LGBT groups complain to government
On 4 October, a 19-year-old visited the gynaecologist at a hospital in the city of Murcia. Following her examination, she was diagnosed with a paper that read: "current illness: homosexual." The woman had provided the doctor with details regarding her sexual orientation as he claimed to want to include it in the report. The incident was brought to the attention of Galactyco, a local LGBT collective, by the woman and her mother. Galactyco has since submitted formal complaints to the regional government in Murcia, and to both the health ministry and health service in the region. The collective further sought for an explanation and an apology since the patient's legal rights were violated through the event. (Sam Jones, "Outrage after gay woman diagnosed at Spanish hospital with 'homosexuality'," The Guardian, 7 October 2021)

REGIONAL
Russia: Alexander Novak says 'certification of Nord Stream 2 will help gas prices fall'
On 6 October, during a meeting of government officials and heads of energy companies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the solution to the soaring gas prices in Europe could be the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The pipeline, which has been completed, is yet to receive approval from the German government to begin gas transit. Novak also suggested an increase in the sales of Gazprom's electronic sales; this proposal was backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin who chaired the meeting. The increase in demand, especially from Asia, has peaked the gas prices when Europe experiences low storage levels. The rate of Dutch wholesale gas (a European benchmark) for November spiked by almost eightfold since the beginning of 2021. ("Nord Stream 2 approval may cool gas prices in Europe, says Russia," The Guardian, 7 October 2021; "Russia says Nord Stream 2 clearance may cool gas prices in Europe," Reuters, 6 October 2021) 

CLIMATE
Germany: World's first climate-friendly fuel plant unveiled
On 4 October, German officials unveiled the commercial plant that would produce synthetic kerosene which is considered to be climate-friendly fuel. The aviation sector accounts for 2.5 per cent of the worldwide emissions and the use of these 'e-fuels' would help solve the problem. Since synthetic kerosene releases the same amount of carbon dioxide that was removed from the atmosphere for fuel production, the fuel is considered to be carbon-neutral. The maintenance of fuels helps in not bringing about significant technical changes to the aircraft. At the inaugural ceremony of the plant, the German environment minister Svenja Schulze said: "The era of burning coal, oil, and natural gas is drawing to a close." Synthetic kerosene will be far more expensive than regular jet fuel; however, the rate of the same to be provided to Germany's Lufthansa is yet to be revealed. ("'First-ever commercial plant making clean jet fuel' opens in Germany," By AP for Euronews, 4 October 2021; Natalie Muller and Neil King, "Aviation: Germany opens world's first plant for clean jet fuel," Deutsche Welle, 4 October 2021) 

INTERNATIONAL
Eastern Sudan: 'End the ongoing blockades,' says the US, UK and Norway
On 8 October, the Troika countries (the US along with the UK and Norway) released a statement calling for an end to the blockade in eastern Sudan. Led by eastern Sudan's Beja tribes, the blockade includes blocking roads and closing of ports and other transportation infrastructure. This has begun affecting civilian life, and will soon impact the Sudanese economy. The three countries also backed the transitional government in Sudan to reach an understanding and resolve the ongoing political crisis. ("US, UK, Norway urge end to blockades in eastern Sudan," Reuters, 8 October 2021) 


08 October 2021, Friday

EU-US technological cooperation on AI, Semiconductors and Supply Chains ​​​​​​​

The inaugural meeting of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC), a new forum to improve economic ties, digital policy, and the effective resolution of possible conflicts was held in Pittsburgh, US.

Photo : Reuters/YvesHerman


IN FOCUS 
By Vaishnavi Iyer

EU-US technological cooperation on AI, Semiconductors and Supply Chains
Recently, the European Union and the United States convened for increased scientific and technology cooperation at the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC is a new forum that aims to improve economic ties, digital policy, and the effective resolution of possible conflicts. The inaugural meeting of the council was held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. EU Commissioners Margrethe Vestager and Valdis Dombrovskis were present, along with the US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Speaking about the meet, Blinken explained: “It's just a remarkable spirit of cooperation, collaboration and a desire between the United States, the European Union, to work very, very closely together.”

Focus points: Artificial Intelligence, semiconductors, China
With mostly economic and policy components, the summit emphasized technology as its central concern. Microchips, forced labour, counterfeit, cloud infrastructure, digitization of MSEs, robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and other subjects were discussed and strategies were declared at the summit. Human rights, regional peace, and climate change were also discussed by the committee. In the short term, joint efforts would involve collaborations in resolving supply chain challenges, with a long-term goal of strengthening semiconductor ecosystems and reducing chip overdependence on Asian countries. 

Technology's influence and power were two significant questions raised throughout the summit. To govern online marketplaces, the European Commission passed the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The US views the EU's DMA to be an overreach that would contradict its very goal of providing customers with more choice to intrude on and overreach their security. The US was not in favour of an intrusive legislation or being forced to comply with EU regulations. However, the Council has set basic standards for both parties to meet, including other foreign allies, on which they would collaborate. AI was a major topic on the agenda with partners vowing to defend fundamental rights and personal security; a legislation governing AI regulation was also introduced. To ensure its trustworthiness, accuracy, non-discrimination, and responsibility, they committed to building "a shared understanding" as well as uniform monitoring criteria.

The partners also focused on global issues surrounding the behaviour of "non-market economies." Though China was not mentioned, its presence was clearly felt as they discussed market-distorting subsidies and unfair treatment of international enterprises, among other issues. The discussions centred on democratic values and technological engagement as well, with a focus on fundamental rights. 

What was not addressed?
The summit failed to address issues that have exacerbated tensions between the EU and the US, such as the Trump administration's tariffs on steel and aluminium produced in the EU. In return, the European Union increased taxes on US imports, although it also postponed a planned increase in import tariffs in the event that the TTC allows for discussions to resolve the issues. Following the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) ruling to invalidate the Privacy Shield, the meeting did not include a discussion of the EU-US data flow. There was no discussion of a WTO reform or government subsidies. Despite the EU placing tariffs on digital companies, the bulk of which are based in the US, the partners did not discuss taxation. 

China cast an unspoken shadow over the summit, and both countries' diplomatic responses differed. Recognizing China as a prospective rival, Brussels seeks to prevent cold wars by referring to China as a "cooperation partner, a negotiating partner, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival." It is now up to the United States to decide whether or not to undertake the China rhetoric. However, given Beijing's technological prowess and political clout, we may soon see a Chinese reference at the next summit.

Due to the AUKUS tensions, France had attempted to postpone the meeting. However, many EU leaders objected to this, preferring to refer to the AUKUS dispute as a bilateral issue rather than a wider matter concerning the EU. The next TTC summit scheduled for March will be held in Europe with France assuming the EU presidency.

References

What's on the agenda for the new EU-US Trade and Technology Council?,” Euronews, 29 September 2021

"EU and US vow to boost microchip supplies and promote trustworthy AI,” Euronews, 01 October 2021


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews         

POLAND
Border tensions with Belarus intensify
On 08 October, the Polish soldiers patrolling the Belarusian border were allegedly fired at by the Belarusian border force according to Poland’s foreign ministry spokesperson. Following this, Belarus’ charge d’affaires was called for by the Polish government. PAP news agency quoted Border Guard spokeswoman Anna Michalska as saying that no one was hurt during the firing. However, the Belarusian charge d’affaires rejected the allegations made against Minsk’s forces. The continued state of emergency declared at the border of Poland and Belarus condemns media coverage of the situation in the region. The EU, along with NGOs like Amnesty International have already criticized the Polish handling of migrants at the border. (Poland claims Belarusian forces fired shots across border,” Deutsche Welle, 08 October 2021)

Constitutional Court approves precedence of Polish law over EU law
On 08 October, the Polish constitutional tribunal ruled against the primacy of EU law over Polish law. The dispute which has been going on for a few months; the ruling followed a request by Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to review the European Court of Justice’s (ECJ) decision of giving primacy to EU law. The EU is of the opinion that the tribunal is illegal, given the fact that it is being politically influenced by the ruling Polish party. Due to this reason, the EU has withheld the post-pandemic reconstruction funds that would facilitate Poland's recovery. While ruling party leaders commended the ruling, comments from the opposition party included Borys Budka of the Civic Coalition saying: “Non-recognition of ECJ rulings is de facto the path to Polexit.” European Parliament President David Sassoli was just one among the many that the ruling angered from within the bloc. The European Commission in response to the judgement released a statement confirming that the EU law held “primacy over national law” as well as “constitutional provisions”. (“Poland's top court rules against primacy of EU law,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021) 

MIGRATION
Afghan resettlement: The EU fails to pledge complete allegiance to UNHCR request
On 07 October, the European Commission shot down a United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) request to resettle 42,500 Afghans for the next five years. Following an EU-hosted online forum, the European Commissioner for Migration Ylva Johannson said that despite the “doable” nature of the demand, it still required commitment from the member states. The EU was asked to protect half the number of total Afghans at risk by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. The forum also included the EU Commission proposing a “multi-annual support scheme for Afghans at risk”, the details of which weren’t revealed. Johannson also reaffirmed that there would be regular talks conducted on Afghan resettlement given the “dire” situation of the country. (“UN targets on Afghan resettlements 'doable' says EU, but without commitments,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021)

Croatia: Report reveals migrant violence along Croatia-Bosnia border
On 06 October, a report of a special investigation conducted over a period of nine months by German public broadcaster ARD and other European media houses was published. Footage released alongside included Croatian police using violent methods to mercilessly pushback migrants attempting to cross-over from Bosnia to Croatia, an EU member state. Nicknamed “Operation Corridor” by officials, there exist claims that the pushback by the “intervention police” had been ordered by the Croatian government. Footage regarding the same was obtained via drones as well as by disguised journalists. The report also includes that the operation was partly funded by the EU as Zagreb has received EUR 177 million since 2014 for “migration management”; however, the EU Commission maintains its ignorance regarding the same. EU’s Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johannson found the report to be “shocking” and expressed her concern about the same. (Amanda Rivkin, “Violent migrant 'pushbacks' at Croatian border exposed by media,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021) 

INTERNATIONAL
AUKUS: France to return ambassador to Australia after rift
On 06 October, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced that the ambassador to Canberra, Jean-Pierre Thebault, would soon return to his post; he failed to mention a date regarding the same. On 07 October, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison welcomed this announcement while refusing to accept the need to mend relations with France stating that he believed Australia’s alliance with France was “bigger than a contract”. However, he added that French President Emmanuel Macron had not picked up his calls, confessing that there was no way the AUKUS deal would have occurred without France getting upset. Thebault is being sent over with specific goals in place: he is to work out an agreement that would “redefine the terms” of the France-Australia equation as well as “firmly defend” France’s interests. (“Australia welcoming back French ambassador after sub row,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021)


07 October 2021, Thursday

The Balkans and the EU Summit

Turkey ratifies Paris Climate Agreement; Claims Conference on Holocaust pensions; Steinmeier in Ukraine; UK's gas price fall; von der Leyen on the EU enlargement

Photo : JoeKlamar-AFP


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews

The Balkans: The EU focus on accession  
On 6 October, the EU's one-day summit in Slovenia came to an end. The summit attended by both the EU and Western Balkan leaders discussed majorly on issues regarding EU accession and other problems faced by the region. The six Western Balkan leaders of Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with North Macedonia and Albania were present for the summit. The Western Balkan states are at different stages of accession.

Three issues: Timeline, Bulgaria's veto, and EU's internal differences
First, despite making promises to fasten the enlargement process and having elaborate talks on the same, the summit failed to bring a decisive timeline regarding the accession of the Western Balkan states. Along with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, several other EU leaders expressed their opinion against having a 'firm timeline' as it did not help with accession. Instead, they believe that it should take place only when the countries in question have achieved all the conditions of the EU accession.

Second, the veto rights being a block for the accession of the Western Balkan states. This is clearly seen when we consider the case of Albania and North Macedonia who, despite having met with the EU's reform demands, are yet to be invited for formal negotiations due to Bulgaria exercising its right to veto. Bulgaria has been against the countries' accession into the EU due to its long-established quarrel with North Macedonia. However, the bilateral dispute doesn't see an end unless Bulgaria's political crisis of not having a government is solved.

Third, internal differences within the EU. The Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said that they 'learnt the hard way not to expect anything'. The North Macedonian Prime Minister during his post-summit address also warned about the consequences of the EU's failure to 'materialize' their promises. He assured that the idea of 'European unity and cooperation' would also be severely affected along with the immense disappointment.

The EU's management of the recent Serbia-Kosovo border dispute added to its falling credibility in the Western Balkan region. Its failure to admonish Serbia using its military strength to create fear amongst its neighbours has severely affected the region's trust in the EU. 

Silver linings: New economic and investment plan
Despite many criticisms, the EU agreed on a new economic and investment plan for the six Western Balkan countries worth EUR 9 billion. They also adopted a declaration reaffirming their support for the region along with initiatives to support green and digital transitions as well as to increase political and security cooperation.

References: 

"EU summit: No firm timeline for Western Balkans accession," Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2021. 

"EU-Western Balkans summit, Brdo pri Kranju, Slovenia, 6 October 2021," European Council, 06 October 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer

GERMANY

Government and NGO renegotiate Holocaust pension claimants at the Claims Conference
The Conference on Jewish Material Claims has negotiated payments for Holocaust survivors. In an attempt to symbolically honour "the dignity taken from survivors in their youth", the settlements amount up to monthly pensions of USD 435 from July. The last generation of 6,500 survivors will see an increase in their compensation. In the conference, known as the Claims Conference, attempts were made to negotiate the number of eligible people. The beneficiaries include 4,500 survivors of the siege of Leningrad, along with 1,200 Jews and 800 French Jews from the Romanian war. (Amanda Rivkin, "More Holocaust survivors to receive pensions from German government," Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021)

Steinmeier commemorates Holocaust victims in Ukraine
President Frank-Walter Steinmeier made visits to the sites of Nazi occupation in Ukraine. He began with the Ukrainian village of Koryukivka and proceeded to the site of the Babyn Yar Massacre. On the 80-year anniversary of the Babyn Yar Holocaust, he called it to a "meticulously planned crime". In his speech, he also expressed grief over the conspiracies intensifying anti-Semitism that increased during the pandemic. He also added: "For us Germans, there can only be one response: never again!" He called for more efforts by the former Soviet Union to commemorate victims of the Holocaust. ("German President Steinmeier marks Nazi massacres in Ukraine," Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021)

THE UNITED KINGDOM 

Gas prices fall after Russia boosts its supply
Announcing an increase in gas supply, Russia offset soaring gas prices in the UK by 257p. Russia stepped in to "calm the market" after the UK saw a rise of 37 per cent with a price of 400p for its gas trade. Lower gas reserves have created volatility and nervousness among most investors. The government was called to act on the surge in prices by the Energy Intensive Users Group. The previous unavailability of gas led to losses for industries, such as steel failing to produce output at times of "peak demand". Nine energy suppliers have already succumbed to the prices and have gone bust. While customers have been protected by an energy cap, revision in the same is likely to affect their affordability and bills. ("UK gas prices fall from record high after Russia steps in," BBC, 07 October 2021)

REGIONAL

The EU: Western Balkan states await membership confirmation from an indecisive EU
Commision Chief von der Leyen at the summit in Slovenia stated "impatience" and "frustration" at the delay of Western Balkan membership. She also expressed the difficulty which the EU would have to face in terms of its position and power in the region. While stressing on wanting the Western Balkans to be a part of the EU; there was no official progress made. The speech was rather an elaborate affirmation. She expanded on the need for improving the economy and anti-corruption measures to strengthen the position of the Western Balkans further. A few countries have been provided with a "candidate status" while others are at advanced levels in the process of membership. The EU heavily continues to invest in the region to prevent other powers from filling the void. However, the EU hasn't provided for any official declaration of permanent membership. Slovenia has requested the EU to commit to provide the Western Balkans membership by 2030. (Jessica Parker, "EU indecision 'jeopardising' its position in Balkans - Von der Leyen," BBC, 07 October 2021)

CLIMATE

Turkey ratifies the Paris agreement 
In alignment with the next UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, the Turkish parliament has ratified the Paris Climate Change Agreement. It is the last G20 country to do so. Turkey has also requested the UN to have its name removed from the Annex 1 group of industrialized countries. The same proposal is set to be discussed at the COP26 Climate Change Conference. ("Turkey ratifies Paris climate change agreement as last G20 country," Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2021)


06 October 2021, Wednesday

Europe's Energy Crisis

Blinken meets Macron; NATO expels Russian mission members; Denmark PM in India; Russia to film in space

Photo : World Atlas


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews

Europe's Energy Crisis
From the UK to Germany, numerous European countries have been undergoing an energy crisis. Countries that supply gas are torn between their internal needs and the needs of those external countries that they supply to. According to Euronews, the gas cost in Europe is six times higher than the last year.

Two major reasons: Search for cleaner fuel transition, and the increasing reliance on natural gas 
In an attempt to attain carbon neutrality, the large-scale transition from coal to cleaner fuel has already begun impacting Europe negatively; as a matter of fact, Europe seems to be the most affected – not just in its respective region but the rest of the world too. This can be attributed to their greater initiative to reach the climate goals that they have set for themselves. 

Second, the economic dependency on natural gas. Natural gas-rich countries like Norway and Russia have reduced their supply to address their own needs. Factories in Europe have already begun shutting down while others have announced to follow a similar road. Warnings of blackouts are all over the news and media houses as well.

What does this mean?
First, the supply-demand disparity; despite the increased demand, suppliers have opted not to increase the production as they believe it would impact their profitability and reduce investments. Second, the falling energy supply along with the increasing gas prices has already affected the farmers and will potentially lead to global food inflation. 

Third, a harsh winter. Winter is going to be a hard one. Fourth, implications on livelihood. Despite governments across Europe trying to ease the consumer load by providing subsidies and tax cuts, an energy crisis inevitably affects everyone's life. As Bloomberg Businessweek stated, 'as more gas goes abroad, less will be available at home' – which is the stark reality. Fifth, balancing the domestic and external markets. Countries supplying gas have to decide between providing for their own versus the external market. This is a tough choice to make since choosing the external countries would imply that the country does not care about the national policy and choosing to supply within the country would adversely impact the foreign policy. 

References
Stephen Stapczynski, "Europe's Energy Crisis Is About to Go Global as Gas Prices Soar," Bloomberg Businessweek, 27 September 2021.  
Lauren Chadwick, "Europe's
 energy crisis: Five charts to explain why your bills might go up this winter," Euronews, 05 October 2021. 
Sergio Matalucci, "
Energy crisis: Harsh winter would add fuel to climate change fire," Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2021. 



IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer

RUSSIA
First film in Space: "The Challenge" set to be filmed in the orbit
A Russian crew of an actress and a director have been docked at the International Space Station by Russia to produce the first in orbit film. The story revolves around a doctor who tries to save the life of a cosmonaut. Film director Klim Shipenko and actress Yulia Peresild boarded the Soyuz MS-19 rocket on 05 October. (Charles Maynes, "Russian crew docks with International Space Station to film 'The Challenge'," NPR, heard on Morning edition, 06 October 2021)

FRANCE
Blinken visits President Macron amid the AUKUS row 
The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met French President Emmanuel Macron for the first time after the AUKUS row. Described as a move to restore the damage, Blinken was present in the OECD meeting. He also met with Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. The meeting concluded on a common agreement to "deepen and strengthen the coordination" with a lot of "hard work" that "remains to be done". The meeting lasted for 40 minutes and was in alignment with Biden's previous call to Macron over the AUKUS rift. ("Blinken, Macron meet in Paris amid AUKUS tensions," Al Jazeera, 06 October 2021)

REGIONAL
Russia: NATO expels Russian mission military members citing them as undeclared intelligence officers
Accused of spying, eight members of Russia's mission to the NATO military alliance were expelled. NATO officially confirmed them as "undeclared intelligence officers". No clear reason was provided in the official statement. Russian senior lawmaker Slutsky mentioned that Russia would retaliate, not necessarily in kind. NATO also mentioned strengthening "deterrence and defense" in response to Russia's aggressive actions but remained open for dialogue. A few months ago, Russian diplomats were asked to leave on similar grounds by Eastern European countries. ("NATO expels 8 from Russian mission as 'intelligence officers'," Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2021)

CLIMATE 
Denmark: Prime Minister prioritizes climate change solutions as top agenda
Mette Frederiksen, arriving in India marked the first visit by a government official since February 2020 and the pandemic. After having frozen ties since 2010 over an arms drop case involving Kim Davy Purulia, this was a historic visit. In relation to the "Green Strategic Partnership" initiative, Frederiksen discussed investment opportunities in Indian renewable technology and outlined India's climate change positions. The visit provided an opportunity to arrive at deeper bilateral ties with the implementation of the Green partnership. Her visit included interacting with students in think tanks with an agenda to announce the Danish financing and technological support for projects. An example of this would be an "Energy Island" which would be built in Tamil Nadu with a proposal of USD 5-10 million dollars to the Stalin government. The talks also focused on other renewable energy model promotions and investments. (Suhasini Haidar, "Climate change action on top of agenda for Denmark PM visit on Saturday," The Hindu, 06 October 2021)


02 October 2021, Saturday

The UK: Johnson threatens to ‘ditch’ the Northern Ireland Protocol if not ‘fixed’

AUKUS postpones EU-Australia trade talks; US-Russia second round of arms talks; Sarkozy found guilty; Serbia-Kosovo reaches deal

Photo : BBC


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

The UK: Boris Johnson proposes “fixing” the Northern Ireland Protocol 

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed to ‘fix’ the Northern Ireland Protocol to facilitate trade in principle. He warned the EU of ditching the Protocol if there were no lucrative solutions proposed to the problem. The UK government has also threatened to use Article 16 unless the EU comes up with substantive solutions to the problem. Government officials have deemed the checks across the Irish Sea to be extreme and “pointless” especially when it involves cancer medicines or even COVID-19 vaccines; the EU has already received criticism regarding the same. Brexit has tremendously affected the trade and supply lines across the Northern Ireland borders which function on EU trade protocols. The constant checks are criticized by the unionists. Moreover, groups of businessmen have warned the Brexit negotiator Lord Frost about the concerning after-effects of triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

Initially, a ‘grace period’ allowed the UK to have open, unchecked market access. This ‘grace period’ was extended till 30 September. However, the UK recently declared this period to be indefinite. The UK government has requested a temporary pause in the legal process until a different approach is identified. Johnson believes the Protocol bears losses for the UK while the EU is critical of Britain’s approach. Though the EU has agreed to opt for “lucrative solutions'', it has denied all possibilities of re-negotiating the Protocol. 

References

Fix it or ditch it, UK's Johnson warns EU on N.Ireland deal,” Reuters, 2 October 2021.

Tom Edgington and Chris Morris, “Brexit: What's the Northern Ireland Protocol?,” BBC, 22 September 2021.

Lisa O'Carroll and Daniel Boffey, “Business chiefs warn against suspending Northern Ireland protocol,” The Guardian, 1 October 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

FRANCE 
Sarkozy found guilty of 2012 campaign overspending
On 30 September, a French judge declared ex-French President Nicolas Sarkozy to be guilty of mass overspending in the 2012 re-election campaigns. Though his sentence calls for an imprisonment of one year, he is given permission to be in an electronically-surveilled house arrest to serve this period. Sarkozy, who failed to be present in court for the verdict, had spent around EUR 43 million in comparison to the legal limit of EUR 22.5 million allocated for presidential candidates. (“France: ex-President Sarkozy found guilty of campaign fraud,” Deutsche Welle, 30 September 2021)

REGIONAL 
Tensions dwindle in Serbia - Kosovo border standoff
On 30 September, Serbia and Kosovo reached an understanding regarding the recent border standoff. The EU special representative for the two countries Miroslav Lajcak tweeted: “We have a deal! After two days of intense negotiations, an agreement on de-escalation and the way forward has just been reached.” The deal which was brokered by the EU includes Kosovo agreeing to remove the police forces stationed at the Kosovo-Serbia border. NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping forces will continue patrolling for another two weeks. Presently, the solution decided upon is a temporary one which will be followed until a permanent one is identified. The dispute instigated by the row over license plates had been the worst one between Serbia and Kosovo for quite a few decades. (“Serbia and Kosovo reach deal in border row, says envoy,” Deutsche Welle, 30 September 2021)

INTERNATIONAL 
AUKUS: Australia and EU trade talks postponed
On 1 October, the European Union postponed its trade talks with Australia owing to the Aukus deal that left France hanging. After France was snubbed, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen doubted the possibility of the EU reaching a trade deal with Australia, supported by France. The meeting between Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan and his EU counterpart Valdis was initially set to occur from 12 October but will now be delayed by another month. The last round of talks happened in June. (“Aukus: Australia-EU trade talks delayed as row deepens,” BBC, 02 October 2021)

Geneva: US-Russia arms control talks
On 30 September, the US and Russia held the second round of their arms control talks. This comes in light of the decision made last July – US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to have a ‘Strategic Stability Dialogue’. The second meeting chaired by the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, aims at intended rules and expectations that would make a significant difference in the usage of nuclear weapons. (“U.S. and Russia say they held 'substantive' arms control talks in Geneva,” Reuters, 01 October 2021)


30 September 2021, Thursday

Amnesty International raises concern over Poland’s treatment of Afghan refugees

Sarkozy to receive 2012 campaign overspending verdict; the US-EU Trade and Technology Council; 80 years since Babi Yar massacre; Lava from the La Palma volcano reaches the sea

Photo : Amnesty International


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Poland: Amnesty International raises concern over the treatment of Afghan refugees
On 29 September, Amnesty International reported brazen human rights violations at Usnarz Gorny, where a group of migrants encamped. The guards resorted to the use of threat and force to return the group to Belarus. Using a satellite image from 18 August, Amnesty International reported the unlawful treatment of the migrants escaping from Afghanistan over Poland’s new laws. Amnesty International also said that the Belarusian border guards regularly help migrants cross into Poland and Lithuania. Lukashenko has been accused by Poland of weaponizing the migrants. Announcing the change in its legislation, Poland issued laws that make it almost impossible for groups crossing the border to apply or claim asylum. This is in contrast to the larger EU and International law where migrant claims need to be individually assessed. Poland and Lithuania have reported increases in migrants from Afghanistan and Iran, flowing from the Belarusian borders, a retaliation strategy they believe Minsk has adopted to put pressure on the EU sanctions.

While human rights groups and media have not been able to access Belarusian borders, they have criticized Poland for its nationalistic government’s approach to the crises. Four migrants died near the Polish borders which are devoid of food, shelter, clean water, and medical facilities. Currently, Amnesty International is urging the government to protect the rights of 32 refugees including a teenage girl. The Polish government has declared a state of emergency sealing off its borders and restricting access; however, with the satellite images, Amnesty International irrefutably concluded that the position of the migrant group had shifted from Poland to Belarus overnight. Without an individual assessment, migrants cannot be forced back as per international and EU law, owing to which Amnesty International has requested Poland to carefully consider its violations and provide for legal and medical aid to the migrant groups along with the basic necessities.

 References

Poland illegally pushed migrants back into Belarus, Amnesty Int'l says,” Reuters, 30 September 2021.

Poland: State of emergency risks worsening already dire situation for 32 asylum-seekers at border,” Amnesty International, 2 September 2021.

Poland/Belarus: Protect Afghans stuck at border,” Amnesty International, 25 August 2021.


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

FRANCE
France: Sarkozy verdict over 2012 re-election campaign on 30 September
On 30 September, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will hear the verdict regarding his massive overspending during his 2012 re-election campaigns. His campaign spending had crossed the legal limit and amounted to at least EUR 42.8 million. Sarkozy, who was voted out of parliament after a single term, has also been associated with multiple investigations. However, doubts loom as to Sarkozy appearing in court for the judgment. During his previous five-week trial, he had infuriated the prosecutors by attending just a single day of the hearings. (“Former French president Sarkozy faces verdict in campaign finance trial,” France24, 30 September 2021)

SPAIN

Canary Islands: Lava reaches the sea; ‘miracle house’ submerged in lava
On 28 September, the La Palma volcano which erupted on 19 September finally saw its lava reaching the sea after much speculation regarding the same. More than 650 properties have been affected and 6000 residents have been evacuated from the region. A ‘miracle house’ which became popular all over the media as it was the sole survivor of the lava, finally got consumed by the lava on 28 September. Spain has declared La Palma a disaster zone in order to financially assist the island’s recovery. (“‘Miracle house’ engulfed as lava reaches sea off La Palma,” The Guardian, 29 September 2021)

UKRAINE

Ukraine: France24 commemorates 80 years since Babi Yar massacre
On 29 September, France24 wrote about commemorating 80 years of the Babi Yar ravine massacre. The Babi Yar ravine, located near Kyiv, witnessed one of the largest mass murders of the Holocaust. So many as 33,771 civilians, mostly Jews, were killed in the ravine in 1941. The numbers and the manner in which the slaughter took place are what made this massacre a turning point in the Holocaust. In an interview with France24, Dutch historian Karel Berkhoff spoke about the historical significance of the ‘premeditated killing spree’ which managed to wipe out a whole Jewish population from a large European city. Monuments have since been erected at the site of the massacre. (“The first major massacre in the ‘Holocaust by bullets’: Babi Yar, 80 years on,” France24, 29 September 2021)

CLIMATE
Italy: Greta Thunberg reprimands inaction on the climate crisis
On 28 September, while attending the Youth4Climate pre-COP26 conference in Milan, Greta Thunberg slammed world leaders on their fancy words and promises and retorted to calling them ‘empty’. Criticizing the politicians of the world for their failure to effectively manage the crisis at hand, her skeptical tone expressed her concerns and reservations regarding the climate problem. Thousands of young activists and policymakers from across the world gathered in Italy to arrive at feasible solutions ahead of the COP26 United Nations summit in November at Glasgow. However, Thunberg said: “So-called leaders have cherry-picked young people to meetings like this to pretend they are listening to us, but they are not listening.” (“‘Blah blah blah’: Greta Thunberg chastises world leaders over climate crisis,” France24, 29 September 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
The US and the EU: Trade and Technology Council amidst AUKUS tensions
On 29 September, top officials from the US and the EU met at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for their first Trade and Technology Council. The meeting co-chaired by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken occurred post the tensions of the failed submarine deal between France and Australia that was strategized on by the US. However, the joint statement released by the White House referred to the commitment of both the parties to continue focusing on global challenges that were affecting trade, economy, and technology. Talks also included efforts to strengthen the multilateral efforts on cooperating in the Indo-Pacific region. The working groups, already in place, would continue working on climate and other issues associated with global trade. (“EU, US trade and technology talks to continue despite diplomatic tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 30 September 2021)


29 September 2021, Wednesday

UK: Lorry driver shortage highlights a wider European problem

Russia threatens YouTube; EU to offer emergency aid to Brexit-affected countries; and France-Greece defense deal

Photo : Reuters/PeterCziborra


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

UK: Lorry driver shortage highlights a wider European problem
The British government has referred to its current situation as a ‘manufactured situation’, Grant Shapps, the UK transport secretary mentioned about trucker’s associations being “desperate to have more European drivers undercutting British salaries". The ministries and government have had to ensure the citizens about having no fuel shortage and that Britain is well stocked on the item. However, for the last three days, citizens have been queuing for fuel furthering the panic buying process. BP, a petroleum major mentioned that nearly 1/3rd of its supplies was worn out by 26 September, a result to which the company cut supply of 90% of its fuel stations to ensure fair distribution. Among other suppliers reporting fuel shortage was Shell. With worldwide fuel and gas prices on the hike, especially in Europe; the UK government has blamed it on a lack of lorry drivers.

Facing a shortfall of 100,000 truck operators, 25,000 heavy goods vehicle operators, the UK is in the midst of an acute shortage of drivers. A few other problems include separate individualized tests to deliver hazardous substances, drivers who left the EU in 2020 yet to return home and finally the older drivers nearing retirement. Truck and Cargo drivers have claimed taht driving in the UK is less attractive than anywhere in the continent, owing to the lack of toilet, shower and canteen facilities, along with lesser wages and higher taxes.

A group of analysts have suggested a primary reason for the same to be Brexit. Keir Starmer, leader of the Opposition slammed the government for failing to foresee shortages of labour post Brexit. The shortage of labour has affected the farming and food processing sectors as well. Government still maintains that the shortage of the truck drivers is due to the pandemic and has issued 5000 temporary visas to incentivize the truck drivers. The incentives seem to be failing. The UK in the early 2000s relied on drivers coming from Eastern Europe, after leaving the bloc, the drivers opted for employment in other countries around the continent accounting for better pay and working conditions. While the shortage remains, the UK says it wouldn't want uneducated people from the EU. Critics are certain that the 3-month visa will not incentivise drivers given the already heavy UK taxation policies, they would prefer any other European country over the UK.

Following Brexit, the government has pushed for domestic countries to replace reliance on labour from across the continent; however, the process is cumbersome and difficult. To address the shortage of truck drivers, the government has initiated tests and with the help of the defence ministry sought to train new drivers. About 4000 people are being trained for HGVs. According to industry leaders, the “short term fix” is said to render pointless as the labour crisis will worsen by Christmas. The UK has also handed out similar 5000 visas to poultry workers to ease pressure on the food industry. Driver shortfall across Europe has risen to 400,000 as predicted by the Transport intelligence and Brexit seems to be one of the probable causes of the shortfall owing to mismanagement of the labour force after the exit. While the UK re-emphasizes its sovereignty devoid of the EU; the overall socio-economic crises fuelled in the middle of the pandemic may lead to further criticisms. 

Reference:
Luke Hurst, “UK lorry driver shortage a stark example of a wider European problem”, Euronews, 29 September 2021 (https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/28/uk-lorry-driver-shortage-a-stark-example-of-a-wider-european-problem)

IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews 

RUSSIA
Russia: Foreign Ministry threatens to block YouTube
On 29 September, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that they would block YouTube in a ‘retaliatory’ move. On 28 September, YouTube had deleted state-sponsored Russia Today’s (RT) German language channels. The channels were removed after YouTube accused RT of having violated its COVID misinformation policy, which was not taken well by the Kremlin. The Russian media watchdog Roskomnadzor expects YouTube to reverse the decision at the earliest. (“Russia threatens to block YouTube”, Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2021; https://www.dw.com/en/russia-threatens-to-block-youtube/a-59349681) 

REGIONAL
EU: Brexit-affected countries to receive emergency aid
On 28 September, EU governments approved an emergency aid of EUR 5.4 billion for those member states who were negatively impacted by Brexit. Ireland and France are expected to be the top recipients receiving EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 735 million, respectively. The funding provided will cover the costs and compensate for the financial losses incurred due to Brexit. After Brexit came into effect in January, trade has reduced significantly between the UK and the EU. EU’s fishing industry has been hit the most. (“EU approves relief funds for member states hurt by Brexit”, Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2021; https://www.dw.com/en/eu-approves-relief-funds-for-member-states-hurt-by-brexit/a-59340379) 

France: EUR 3 billion defense deal signed with Greece; Macron asks Europe to ‘not be naïve'
On 28 September, France has signed a defense deal with Greece after the recent rift over AUKUS with Australia and the US. Under the France-Greece deal, Greece will be supplied with warships by France. Three Belharra frigates manufactured by the French will be given to Greece with the option of purchasing another. Following the meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Macron stated that the AUKUS situation would not affect the French strategy regarding the Indo-Pacific. He also advised the Europeans to stop being naïve when pressurized by powerful countries and instead to prove themselves by staging an efficient defense. (“France and Greece sign multibillion-euro defense deal”, Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2021; https://www.dw.com/en/france-and-greece-sign-multibillion-euro-defense-deal/a-59334986) 


28 September 2021, Tuesday

Poland: Three more regions repeal 'LGBT-free zone' status

Earthquake in Greece, Migrants arrive at Lampedusa, Transgenders win seats in German elections, NATO deploys forces by Kosovo-Serbia border, Ambassadors summoned by Hungary and Kyiv over Russian gas deal

Photo : Reuters/KacperPempel


IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer

GREECE
Island of Crete: Earthquake leaves one dead and nine injured
On 27 September, an earthquake hit the island of Crete in Greece. Casualties included one death and nine injured while several damages to infrastructure were also reported. The Athens Geodynamic Institute reported the initial magnitude of the quake to be 5.8 with an epicentre of 246 kilometres (kms) southeast of Athens. The European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) reported a magnitude of 6.5 with a depth of 2 kms. There have been variations regarding the magnitude of the quake across institutes. (“Greece: One dead after earthquake hits island of Crete”, Deutsche Welle, 27 September 2021) https://www.dw.com/en/greece-one-dead-after-earthquake-hits-island-of-crete/a-59322863

MIGRATION
Italy: Hundreds of migrants land in Lampedusa
On 28 September, the Italian Interior Ministry said that hundreds of migrants had arrived on the island of Lampedusa. 686 people arrived by a large boat while 67 others were brought to safety by rescue forces on smaller vessels. They will now be shifted to quarantine zones. According to the Interior Ministry’s data, 44,800 migrants have landed on the Italian coast till date since the beginning of 2021, which is a spike from the 23,517 amounted to during the same period last year. (“Hundreds of migrants land in Italy’s Lampedusa”, Reuters, 28 September 2021) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hundreds-migrants-land-italys-lampedusa-2021-09-28/ 

GENDER
Two transgender women elected to power in German elections
On 27 September, two transgender women - Tessa Ganserer and Nyke Slawik, members of the Green party, won seats in the recently held German parliamentary elections. Ganserer had been elected to Bavaria’s regional parliament in 2013. She intends to create an easier procedure for ratifying gender change on identity documents as well as to bring about legislative changes that would allow lesbian mothers to adopt. Slavik, on the other hand, intends to implement a nationwide action plan against homophobia and transphobia among other things.  (“Two transgender women win seats in German parliament”, Reuters, 28 September 2021) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-transgender-women-win-seats-german-parliament-2021-09-27/ 

Three more Polish regions repeal ‘LGBT-free zones’ status
On 27 September, three more regional councils in Poland — Podkarpackie, Lubelskie, and Malopolskie — repealed their ‘LGBT-ideology free zone’ status. The declaration was repealed after the EU refused to approve Poland’s pandemic-recovery funds. The EU wants Poland to remove the ‘LGBT-ideology free zones’ since it violates the EU law of non-discrimination on grounds of sexual orientation. (“Three Polish regions repeal ‘LGBT-free’ declarations”, Reuters, 27 September 2021) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-polish-regions-repeal-lgbt-free-declarations-2021-09-27/ 

REGIONAL
NATO deploys KFOR peacekeeping forces at Kosovo-Serbia border
On 27 September, the NATO peacekeeping forces - KFOR - increased their patrols on Serbia’s northern border following the rising tensions between Belgrade and Pristina. Serbia deployed armoured vehicles at a border crossing after Serbs protested a decision taken by the Kosovo government concerning licensing plates which intensified the tensions. This is an issue since Serbia does not recognize Kosovo nor its license plates. Due to this, drivers from Kosovo are required to remove their license plates and purchase temporary ones while travelling through Serbia. Kosovo decided to impose a similar measure which has soared tensions between the two countries. (“NATO patrols Kosovo-Serbia border as tensions soar”, Deutsche Welle, 27 September 2021) https://www.dw.com/en/nato-patrols-kosovo-serbia-border-as-tensions-soar/a-59331883 

Ambassadors of Budapest and Kyiv summoned over Russian gas supply deal
On 28 September, Ukraine and Hungary summoned their respective ambassadors after Budapest signed a gas deal with Moscow. Ukraine considers the new 15-year natural gas supply deal between Russia and Hungary as a threat. On 27 September, Hungary had accused Ukraine of intervening in its internal matters when Kyiv criticized Budapest regarding the gas deal. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the ambassador was being summoned over attempts by Ukraine to block the gas deal while Ukraine’s foreign ministry said that they had summoned the Hungarian ambassador as a tit-for-tat move. (“Hungary, Ukraine summon ambassadors over Russian gas supply deal spat”, Reuters, 28 September 2021) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-summons-ukrainian-ambassador-over-russian-gas-supply-deal-spat-2021-09-28/ 


27 September 2021, Monday

Elections in Iceland

German federal elections, Switzerland favours same-sex union referendum, Russian Foreign Minister at the UNGA, Russia protests over election results

Photo : BBC


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer 

Iceland Elections: Almost historic women parliament overturned by recount
Around 33 women were elected into a 63-seat parliament in Iceland. Prior to the recount the country celebrated brief hours of being the first European country to have a woman dominated parliament. The recount indicated that it was only 30 women who were elected. However, this is the highest number of women lawmakers in Europe. The election results in Iceland remain unchanged with the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir. The three-party coalition has governed Iceland for the past four years; Jakobsdottir’s party suffered losses, it remains to be seen if the coalition sticks together. The coalition of Green Movement, Progressive Party and the Independence party held 37 out of 63 seats.
Lenya Rum Karim running for the anti-establishment party saw her decision overturned with the recount. She would have been Iceland’s youngest lawmaker at 21 years old. If for the statistics before the recount, Iceland would have been among the list of countries with a women majority parliament like those of Rwanda, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua and UAE. However, Sweden and Finland have 47 per cent - and 46 per cent women’s representation in the Parliament in Europe. Iceland has been ranked as the most gender equal country. While the recount reversed a landmark or rather historic victory for gender equality; Iceland continues to strive to maintain its coalition and a stable government considering the last years being guided by scandals and political mistrusts.

References 
Iceland election: Recount overturns historic results for women”, DW, 26 September 2021.

IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews     

RUSSIA
Moscow: Election results protested
On 25 September, around a thousand people gathered in Moscow rejecting the election result. The demonstration was organized by the conservative Communist Party. Signs calling for a recount, releasing jailed Kremlin-critic Navalny, and other issues were also seen via the demonstration. The protest was heavily policed.  (“Russia: Hundreds protest in Moscow over election result”, Deutsche Welle, 25 September 2021) https://www.dw.com/en/russia-hundreds-protest-in-moscow-over-election-result/a-59310855 

GERMANY
Federal Elections: SDP party wins narrowly; CDU, CSU worst performance till date
On 25 September, exit polls predicted Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) and the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to be essentially in a tie. On 26 September, the official preliminary results concluded that Olaf Scholz’s SPD secured 25.7 per cent of the votes while Armin Laschet’s CDU secured a vote of 24.1 per cent. Greens came in third place within. This will now lead to almost a month-long discussion on who should form the government and further talks on coalition. (“Germany: SPD intends to form coalition with Greens and liberals”. The Guardian, 27 September 2021) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/27/olaf-scholz-intends-three-way-coalition-germany 

GENDER
Switzerland’s referendum on legalizing same-sex unions wins with an overwhelming majority
On 26 September, Switzerland conducted its referendum to legalize same-sex marriages. The vote which was won by a large margin would allow for same-sex couples to get married and adopt children. Results of the referendum showed that 64.1 per cent of the voters favoured the legalization while 36 per cent voted against the same. However, converting this result into law, like a bill, would require time because of Switzerland’s administrative and legislative procedures. The vote was initiated by the country’s conservatives. (“Swiss vote ‘yes’ to same-sex marriage”, Deutsche Welle, 26 September 2021) https://www.dw.com/en/swiss-vote-yes-to-same-sex-marriage/a-59313074 

INTERNATIONAL
Russia at the UNGA
On 25 September, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addressed the United Nations General Assembly. Speaking at the UNGA, he criticized actions of various countries that were threatening internal sovereignty and territorial integrity. He called out France denying Russian mercenaries from entering Mali, the US troops withdrawing from Afghanistan in haste without considering the consequences. Lavrov also talked about the US-China tensions which were stirring and called out Germany and France asking for an ‘Alliance For Multilateralism’. He questioned what could be more multilateral than the United Nations itself. (“Russia roasts West over Mali, Afghanistan pullout”, Deutsche Welle, 26 September 2021) https://www.dw.com/en/russia-roasts-west-over-mali-afghanistan-pullout/a-59312190 


24 September 2021, Friday

Germany holds the final election debate

EU confirms the Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council to take place as scheduled

Photo : DW


IN BRIEF 
By Vaishnavi Iyer and Joeana Cera Matthews 

SPAIN
Carles Puigdemont arrested in Sardinia
After almost four years as a fugitive, Carles Puigdemont, the Former President of the Catalan state government was arrested in Sardinia. The lawyer for Puigdemont confirmed his arrest and stated that the arrest warrant was dated October 14,2019. In 2017, Puigdemont along with three other Catalan ministers had fled the country following an independence referendum for Catalonia. The Spanish government declared the same illegal and he was charged with sedition. Being a member of the EU Puigdemont was protected; however, in March the European Parliament stripped him off the privileges. The Spanish government and courts have expressed deep reverence for the Italian justice system and asserted that the procedure would be the same for any individual that is answerable to the courts. The Catalonian president called the arrest a “persecution” and the region still witnesses a push for independence. Spain has pardoned separatists who were initially sentenced to long prison terms. (“Carles Puigdemont arrested in Sardinia”, DW, 23 September 2021)

GERMANY
Germany holds the final election debate: Green party put under pressure
Candidates competing for the German elections appeared for their last Tv debate covering tax, foreign policy and debt. Opinion polls reflect the Social Democrats leading by just one percent followed by the FGW centre left party with 25 per cent. The greens are set to play an important role in the government. Greta Thunberg was seen heading a final protest to pressure the candidates to push for better action towards climate change. While the Free Democrats maintain a steady 11 percent; the race now exists between Social Democrat Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet from Christian Democrats, which was Merkel’s party. The role played by the Greens or protests to highlight climate change are set against the backdrop of deadly July floods in western Germany. About more than 400 climate strikes have been planned across Germany. Thus, we are to see a full-blown pressure cranked on the winning candidate to take the green policies forward. (“German candidates clash in last TV debate before vote as SPD lead narrows”, Reuters, 24 September 2021; “NEWS WIRES, “Thunberg spearheads German climate protests to pressure candidates before polls”, France 24, 24 September 2021).
 
CLIMATE CHANGE
Nestle, Portugal’s Galp Energia, Shell pledge efforts to address physical risks of climate change
The Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change concluded in a research that companies involved in food and pharma, mining and energy, transportation etc. are more exposed to physical climate risks of flooding, droughts and extreme heat than any other sectors in their region. The group in a letter to the European, US and Asian companies asked the firms to identify and provide adequate responses or policies to address the situation. The investor group also published a note of expectation to help companies build resilience towards these physical risks of climate change. Companies like Shell have planned to appeal an effort to cut carbon emissions in a new ruling, while energy companies like Centrica have pledged to look further into the issue and increase outputs on the same. Nestle mentioned its undertaking which was already in progress relating to physical impacts on their value chains and finally Portugal’s Galp Energia promised its commitment to be a leader in quality, transparency and accuracy. (Carolyn Cohn and Nina Chestney, “Exclusive: Centrica, Nestle, Swatch among companies exposed to physical climate risks - investors”, Reuters, 23 September 2021).
 
INTERNATIONAL
EU confirms the Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council to take place as scheduled
France confirmed that it seeks compensation of 56bn pounds for the cancellation of the 12 attack-class submarines for Australian cancellation. Pierre Eric Pommellet also accused Le Figaro of having cancelled the French deal to only replace it with AUKUS; and called the decision more political than defense based. Amidst the French aggression the EU confirmed that its Trade and Technology council was to take place as scheduled in Pittsburgh next week. French minister Le Drian mentioned that restoring confidence with the U.S would require more time, however the recent reconciliation efforts between the US and the French through the President’s calls seem to have pushed for the timely EU TTC meeting. (SARAH ANNE AARUP,“EU confirms transatlantic Trade and Tech Council to proceed”, Politico, 23 September 2021).
 


23 September 2021, Thursday

AUKUS: Boris Johnson asks the French to “get a grip”

The La Palma volcanic eruption on endangering livelihoods, Ukraine’s law on restricting oligarchs, EU’s proposal to impose standard charger cables, the Budapest Demographic Summit

Photo : SkyNews


IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer

Boris Johnson asks France to “get a grip” over the AUKUS submarine row
After being blindsided by the AUKUS allies; France reacted furiously, indulging in escalating diplomatic rows. Boris Johnson commented: “prenez un grip and donnez-moi un break” asking the French counterpart to get a grip and give him a break. The confrontational remark came with the announcement of France holding a call with the United States to facilitate the return of the French ambassador to the US. France had recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia, but not Great Britain. When asked as to why France did not recall its ambassador from Britain, French Jean-Yves Le Drian commented that they are familiar with Britain’s “permanent opportunism” and referred to the country as the “fifth wheel on the carriage”. The comment made by Johnson this could be around the French claims of the misstep in ignoring France over the AUKUS deal to affect talks regarding Northern Ireland. France sought solidarity from the EU over the deal, comparing it to that of the consequences of Brexit. Johnson on the other hand insisted that the deal is a great step forward in social security and isn’t exclusive per se. He further elaborated that the deal was only about three like-minded allies coming together to share technological efforts, and that it had nothing adversarial towards China.

Macron and Biden hold reconciliation talks 
President Macron expected “concrete measures” on the US' part to restore France’s trust and communication amidst the AUKUS diplomatic row. Over the past week, France has reacted aggressively against the AUKUS members. The call between President Biden and President Macron took place on 22 September 2021. It was reported to be “friendly”, with France facilitating the return of its French ambassador to the US. Before France recalled its ambassador, it had initially cancelled a gala which was to commemorate 240 years of the relation between America and France. There was also a direct comment by Jean-Yves Le Drian aimed at the Biden presidency, saying it mirrored the previous Trump presidency. He went on to call the decision of the US a “stab in the back” calling President Biden’s decision unpredictable, brutal and unilateral. However, after the 30-minute call on 22 September, the leaders vouched to launch consultations for building confidence and meet in Europe at the end of October. President Biden resonated with the idea of a strong European defence plan to compliment the NATO alliance. There was a small difference between the noting of consultations in the French language and the English language. While the English report noted that the allies would have “benefited” from open talks; the French version wrote the allies could have “avoided this situation” which is an acknowledgement of the French anger. While no dates were set for the October meet, Biden would be in Glasgow and Rome for the COP26 and G20 summits respectively. Moreover, the French foreign minister finally warmed up to Antony Blinken at the UN summit on 23 September. France will send a detailed cancellation invoice to Australia for the failed contract. It was mentioned that the call was concluded with good messages, with France establishing that the reaction did not stem from the commercial loss of the deal but rather the breakdown of confidence with its counterparts. While France spoke with the US, there seemed to be no indication of French reconciliation with Australia or the UK, especially after Boris Johnson asked France to “get a grip”. Thus, the international community is yet to see when Macron ends the face-off with the AUKUS allies. 

References
Catherine Neilan, “Boris Johnson tells France to 'prenez un grip and donnez-moi un break' over submarine row”, The Telegraph, 22 September 2021 

Kevin Liptak, “Biden holds first call with French President Macron since diplomatic crisis erupted”, CNN, 22 September 2021 



IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

SPAIN
Canary Islands: Lava endangering banana plantations
On 23 September, lava and smoke shot out of the La Palma volcano threatening the island’s banana plantations. Banana as a crop provides livelihood to the region’s farmers while being a crucial economic-builder. Several farms have already been affected, impacting the annual banana productions negatively. La Palma produces a quarter of the Canary Islands’ famous bananas. The citizens have been warned to maintain cleanliness in order to avoid the ingestion of the toxic ash looming in the sky. The devastation of homes has also increased concerns. In light of this, the Islands’ regional government has promised two housing developments purchases to provide for the homeless. Meanwhile, emergency shelters are being provided by Spanish banks. (Nacho Doce and Marco Trujillo, “Lava, smoke and ash cover La Palma as volcano threatens banana crop”, Reuters, 23 September 2021

UKRAINE
Ukraine: Law on restricting oligarchs gains a clear majority in parliament
On 23 September, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law curbing the political and economic influence of oligarchs in the country. The law, which passed a first reading in July, passed its second reading with a clear majority. It will now be sent to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for approval. The legislation would require top officials to declare dealings with individuals categorized as ‘oligarchs’. These ‘oligarchs’ are also restricted from involvement in political financing and privatization of public assets. Zelenskyy expects these rules would protect Ukraine from corrupt yet powerful business figures. Critics, however, claim this to be a move by the President to concentrate power. The decision came a day after Zelenskyy’s top aide survived an assassination attempt; government officials said that this could have been a response to the reform. (“Ukraine approves law to limit influence of oligarchs”, Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2021

POLAND
Swietokrzyskie province repeals ‘LGBT ideology free zone’ resolution
On 22 September, following an extraordinary provincial assembly session, the province of Swietokrzyskie in southern Poland, overturned its stature as an ‘LGBT ideology free zone’. 25 councillors voted in favour and three abstained from voting while none voted against the cancellation of the title. The declaration, accepted in 2019, was revoked after the EU denied pandemic-recovery funds to the province. The previous legislation has been replaced with a new resolution that guarantees families the right to raise their children according to personal beliefs while providing equality and fair treatment for all. The repeal follows a similar vote in Krakow on 20 September. Poland’s LGBTQ rights activists expressed their gratitude for the decision. (“Polish province overturns ‘LGBT ideology free zone’”, Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2021

GENDER AND MIGRATION
Hungary: Budapest Demographic Summit sees conservatives condemn migration, LGBTQ while supporting ‘family values’
On 23 September, conservatives from all over the world met in Hungary to address and defend the ‘notion of family’ at the Budapest Demographic Summit. Participants of the summit included Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, former US Vice President Mike Pence and French far-right commentator Eric Zemmour. The two-day conference witnessed speakers condemning migration and the LGBTQ community while asking Christian couples to enlarge their families by having more children. Appreciating Orban prior to the conference, Zemmour said that Orban “defends the identity of his country and therefore that of Europe.” Separately, on 23 September, Orban with prime ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia, endorsed a joint declaration advocating immigration to not be the solution for the EU's falling birth rate.  (“Hungary: Leaders slam migration, LGBTQ at ‘family values’ summit”, Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2021

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
In a blow to Apple, EU to impose universal smartphone charger
On 23 September, the EU proposed switching to a standard USB-C cable, allowing a universal charger for smartphones across the bloc. The proposal, if implemented, would terribly affect the tech giant Apple as well as the global smartphone market. The decision comes after the present situation of three main charger options was considered to be “inconvenient” by Brussels. The EU’s internal market commissioner Thierry Breton said that the imposition of a standard charger would bring an end to the sale of non-interchangeable and unnecessary chargers. The failure of the industry to come up with an alternative, has been claimed to be behind the legislative action. ( “EU proposes universal charging plug for all smartphones”, Deutsche Welle, 23 September 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
Black Sea: Russian navy practises while Ukraine-US joint military drills underway
On 23 September, the Russian navy practised target firing using its Bastion coastal missile defence system in the Black Sea. The Bastion system is an advanced mobile anti-ship and surface-to-surface defence system. According to Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, the system is capable of hitting sea targets and land targets at a distance of 219 miles and 281 miles, respectively.  The target testing came amidst the US-Ukraine joint military exercise taking place in the region. Ukraine’s joint exercises with US and other NATO troops will continue till 1 October. (“Russian Navy practises striking Black Sea targets as Ukraine, US hold drills”, Reuters, 23 September 2021

Helsinki: Russian and the US’ military chiefs discuss for six hours
On 22 September, the top military officials from Russia and the US met in Helsinki in their first physical meeting since 2019. They held six hours of discussions - supposedly about the adjustments regarding the US pull-out from Afghanistan and the subsequent Taliban takeover. Details of the talks, like the agenda, were not disclosed and minimal statements were provided. However, the US military statement said that the talks were aimed at “risk reduction and operational deconfliction.” (“US, Russian military chiefs meet in Helsinki for six hours”, Reuters, 23 September 2021


22 September 2021, Wednesday

Erdogan's UNGA address

IEA calls on Russia to increase European gas supply, Germany's pandemic radicalization, Gender rights referendum in Switzerland, ECHR rules on Litvinenko murder

Photo : Reuters


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews
76th UNGA session: Erdogan promises ratification of Paris Climate Agreement 

On 22 September, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) confirming Istanbul's readiness to ratify the Paris Climate Agreement. The landmark agreement focuses on limiting the dangerous emissions that contribute to global warming. These dangerous emissions, scientists claim, are increasing extreme and frequent weather events. The announcement comes after Turkey was subjected to a year of devastating environmental conditions owing to climate change. 

Erdogan's address titled, "A Fairer World is Possible," included calls to justice and touched upon the UNGA session's themes. From COVID-19 to multilateralism, several matters of concern were addressed. However, the President dedicated the entire closing section of his comprehensive speech to climate issues. Despite addressing a wide range of issues, his announcement on the Paris Agreement took precedence across media outlets. Turkey had signed the Paris Climate Agreement back in 2016, however, they did not officially ratify the same in the parliament. Deciding to finally ratify the Paris climate agreement was the highlight of Erdogan's address. He expects to complete the process in time for the UN Climate Change Conference in November at Glasgow.

Why ratify now?

From the torrential rain-induced flash floods to the scorching wildfires, the past year's weather conditions were not kind to Turkey. Erdogan and his government came under severe criticism over his handling of the crises — the flash floods, fires and finally the drought. The lack of appropriate equipment and technology to handle the situation were some of the main criticisms that the Erdogan administration received. In light of this, environmental issues have been prioritized and approving the Paris Agreement is a step toward acknowledging and acting on these concerns. 

Climate as a primary agenda at the UNGA 

Climate change and biodiversity were among the themes chosen for the 76th UNGA. The recent IPCC report has raised concerns about the fastening pace and impact of climate change. Climate financing and adaptation have also been discussed at the assembly. Erdogan, himself stated that the world needed to prioritize climate change before inaction led to irreversible consequences. From the US' Biden's address to that of China's Xi Jinping's address, climate change definitely claimed importance as a matter to be acted upon at the earliest.

Erdogan in New York

On 20 September, Erdogan met with the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the newly inaugurated Turkevi Center in New York. Later in the day, he also met with the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres discussing developments in Syria, Afghanistan, and Libya among other issues. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also met with his counterpart regarding continued cooperation on Afghanistan.

References:

"Erdogan tells UN Turkey will ratify Paris Climate Agreement", France24, 22 September 2021 

 "Turkey set to submit Paris climate pact to parliament next month: President", Hurriyet Daily News, 22 September 2021 

"Erdogan meets British premier, UN chief in New York", Hurriyet Daily News, 21 September 2021 

"Policy Brief: What We'll be Listening for at UNGA 76", SDG Knowledge Hub, 17 September 2021 

"UNGA 2021 latest updates: Kinf Abdullah urges 'rethink' on climate and pandemic efforts", The National, 22 September 2021

Burhanettin Duran, "Transformation in global system and Erdogan's UN visit", Daily Sabah, 22 September 2021 

"World leaders speak at United Nations General Assembly", Al Jazeera, 21 September 2021 


IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer

SPAIN
Canary Islands: La Palma volcano's new vent; lava approaching sea
On September 21, nearly 200 people fled their homes as Spain's erupting volcano developed a new fissure. The volcano erupted after a week of seismic activity, gradually turning into a 3.8 magnitude earthquake. The new vent of the La Palma volcano is 900 meters which emerged after a 4.1 magnitude earthquake on Monday. Government spokesperson Isabel Rodriguez reported that 6,000 people from La Palma have been evacuated and 183 houses damaged. No casualties have been reported, however there is much overwhelm about the situation. Experts claim that there lies a possibility of continuing damage. ("Canary Islands volcano: New vent opens, more people flee", Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2021

GERMANY
Murder over face mask raises concerns of radicalization
Lawmakers in Germany are concerned of the radicalization among people who oppose COVID-19 restrictions. In the wake of the killing of a 20-year-old clerk in Idar; authorities expressed fears over the growing radicalization. The 20-year-old was killed when he asked a customer to wear a mask. Police authorities did not release details till September 20 regarding the matter. The 49-year-old man turned himself in on September 19, and upon arrest said that he had acted "out in anger". ("Germany: Gas station employee killed over a face mask", Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2021

REGIONAL
Russia accused of Litvinenko murder by ECHR
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has accused Russia of being involved in the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko. It said that Moscow was 'beyond doubt' involved in the assassination. Litvinenko worked with the Russian security forces before defecting and moving to the UK. He was given UK citizenship along with his now widowed wife. He was poisoned to death with a tea containing the radioactive substance Polonium-210. While Russia denies its involvement with the murder; it has yet to prove its innocence. The probe found that the killing was guided by an operation of the Russian Federal Security Services (FSB). Russia, however, has claimed the ruling to be 'unfounded' and has continued denying its involvement with the murder. ("Russia was responsible for Litvinenko killing, European court rules", Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2021) https://www.dw.com/en/russia-was-responsible-for-litvinenko-killing-european-court-rules/a-59248303 

GENDER
Switzerland's referendum to legalize same-sex unions on 26 September
Switzerland is set to vote in a referendum on September 26 over legalizing same-sex marriages and adoption. The referendum comes in the wake of a highly-charged campaign by gay rights activists against the conservatives. The country remains among the last few in Europe to continue the ban over same-sex marriages. (Silke Koltrowitz and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi, Cecile Mantovani, "Divided Swiss to vote on same-sex marriage", Reuters, 22 September 2021

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Lithuania asks citizens to rid themselves of Chinese phones over concerns of censorship
Xiaomi's 10T 5G in Lithuania has been reported to contain built-in sensors which censor and detect phrases such as "Free Tibet", "Long live Taiwan independence" and "democracy movement". The government has advised people to "throw away their Chinese smartphones". The phones sold in Lithuania come with a disabled content filtering option but censor keyword lists would appear periodically. The government expressed data protection concerns, with the user encrypted data being sent to Singapore where GDPR rules of the EU are not applicable. (Andrius Sytas, "Lithuania says throw away Chinese phones due to censorship concerns", Reuters, 22 September 2021

INTERNATIONAL
IEA intervenes to push increased Russian gas exports to Europe
The International Energy Agency has called on Russia to boost its gas exports to Europe amid increasing prices. The intervention was to help Europe reach adequate levels of gas preparation for the coming winter seasons. Most governments across Europe are looking towards energy policies and discussions on global gas shortages. Gas prices have risen by 250 per cent this year. Governments all across Europe - Spain, Frace, Italy and Germany are capping off prices to avoid higher bills. An energy meeting has been set up to address the issue. This marks an important point for Russia to establish itself as a reliable gas supplier to the EU markets. (Jillian Ambrose, "IEA calls on Russia to send more gas to Europe before winter", The Guardian, 21 September 2021

ECFR Survey: Emergence of Cold War between the US, China, and Russia
A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations among 12 member states stated a new cold war emerging between the US, China and Russia. The polling revealed that most voters hold the new leadership in Brussels responsible for the budding international conflict. The AUKUS alliance has already caused diplomatic rifts; the poll suggests the widening of differences between Brussels and EU due to the disconnect between the policy ambitions of both states. This in turn will weaken the EU's response to any Russian or Chinese threat. About 15 percent of Europeans believed that they were in a cold war with China or Russia while 62 percent of the responders anticipated a new cold war between the US and China. The study also revealed that a "cold war" analogy was more likely to repel voters given that they didn't see this as an immediate threat. Thus, Brussels' "hawkishness" in its policies would not work in its favour; especially in the international front. (Guy Faulconbridge and Michael Holden, "Russia was behind Litvinenko assassination, European court finds", Reuters, 21 September 2021

AUKUS: UK's Johnson asks French to 'get a grip'
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked France 'to get a grip' over its row with the AUKUS allies. Earlier this week, France called off its talks with their UK defence minister Ben Wallace, despite assurance of no intentional harm directed at France. The leaders agreed on sharing elaborate talks to solve the row. In the wake of this, President Macron is set to call President Biden to decide on 'concrete measures'. The AUKUS row requires rebuilding trust among the French government and the trilateral deal allies, which France hopes to do through concrete and actionable steps. (Marie Jackson, "Boris Johnson tells Macron: Donnez-moi un break over new pact", BBC, 22 September 2021


21 September 2021,

Russian Elections 2021

Amidst allegations of fraud and unfairness, United Russia wins  

Photo : Kirill Zykov-Moskva News Agency-MoscowTimes


IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews 

Russian Elections 2021: Amidst allegations of fraud and unfairness, United Russia wins  
From 17 to 19 September, Russia witnessed elections at the local, regional, and national levels. The parliamentary elections were the primary focus as it would elect 450 deputies for the next five years to the State Duma (lower house of parliament). The preliminary results of the three-day polling came to an end with the Kremlin-loyal United Russia attaining an overwhelming majority. According to Russia's Electoral Commission head Ella Pamfilova, the final results will be announced on 23 September.  
Preliminary results in numbers 

As the vote-tallying ended, United Russia emerged the winner with a vote percentage of 49.83. This implies that United Russia will contribute more than two-thirds of deputies in the lower house, thus, receiving a constitutional majority. Despite winning comfortably, the party lost ground in comparison to the 2016 elections wherein they secured 54 per cent of the vote. The Communist party garnered 19 per cent of the vote while the nationalist LDPR party and the Fair Russia party contributed around 7.5 per cent of the vote, individually. A new pro-Putin party — New People, also garnered 5 per cent of the vote share. Overall, the elections saw an official voter turnout of 52 per cent. 

Pre-election issues 
Russia’s guided form of democracy was clearly visible throughout the electoral processes. Before the elections, Moscow saw a major crackdown on Kremlin critics. Any individual or institution that criticized the Putin-led government was either arrested, tried in court or managed to flee the country. There were no apprehensions regarding the outright removal or banning of critics prior to the elections. Alexei Navalny, the most popular Putin opponent, was jailed while his organization was labelled ‘extremist’. A strategic voting app promoted by Navalny’s group was taken down from the store after Apple, Telegram and Google were pressurized by Russian authorities. 
Criticisms: Internal and International 

According to reports, this year’s election saw Russia transitioning from a flawed democracy to a fully-fledged authoritarian state – since the pro-Kremlin results were inevitable. Criticisms ranged from accusations of voter fraud to requests to annul results. Ballot box stuffing, pens with disappearing ink and threats against observers were other alleged violations. According to the Interior Ministry, 750 complaints of voting violations were received, none of which were serious enough to affect the vote outcome. Those that criticized the elections from within included the Communist party, Navalny’s supporters, and other anti-Kremlin sentimentalists. However, there also came an international backlash. From the US State Department spokesperson Ned Price to the EU Foreign Affairs spokesperson Peter Sano, the Russian elections were termed undemocratic and staged. Many other countries in Europe also criticized the growing authoritarianism in the country. 

The Kremlin remains unswayed 
Despite the widespread criticism, the Kremlin has reiterated Putin’s priority of transparency and honesty regarding the elections. They deny the existence of political motives behind the intimidation of opponents, justifying that those prosecuted had broken the law. His popularity remains pristine to those that credit him for standing up to the West and upholding national pride. 

References:   
Eva Hartog, “Putin’s United Russia wins vote – as designed – amid hints of discontent”, POLITICO, 20 September 2021. 
Christian F. Trippe, “Opinion: The Russian election wasn’t one”, Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2021. 
“Russia: Putin’s party wins majority in parliamentary elections”, Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2021. 
“Russia election: Putin’s party wins election marred by fraud claims”, BBC, 21 September 2021. 

IN BRIEF
By Vaishnavi Iyer 

REGIONAL
Poland: Warsaw accuses Russia and Belarus over weaponizing migrants  
On 20 September, four migrants were found dead on the Polish border. Poland has accused Russia and Belarus over orchestrating a mass weaponization of migrants across the border. Despite having anticipated cross border migrations, the EU, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia were not prepared to host the wave of middle eastern migrants that have been seemingly “instrumentalized” by Belarus and Russia in the wake of the sanctions placed against Belarus. Up to 7000 migrants have been found on the border after being flown/pushed/driven away by Belarus. Though the EU has extended support to the ailing nations, experts want to see more. Poland has imposed a 30-day state emergency banning entry of non-residents and installed barbed wires on the borders. (“After four found dead, Poland blames Belarus for migrant wave”, Al Jazeera, 20 September 2021) 

Poland: ECJ imposes fine on Warsaw over controversial coal mine 
On 21 September, Poland was directed to pay EUR 500,000-a-day to Brussels by the ECJ over its failure to cease mining activities. The Turow mine in question is located southeast of Poland bordering the Czech Republic and Germany. In January, Germany had filed a claim over the same issue citing the harm to the communities over its borders. Prague had filed a case in March with the ECJ. In May, Poland was instructed to cease the extraction of brown coal. The Czech government reportedly filed the case owing to the failure of talks between Warsaw and Poland. Poland is likely to lose the EU's EUR 17.5 billion "Just Transition" fund if it continues mining beyond 2030. The ECJ order requires Poland to pay the daily penalty until it obeys the interim order of the court. (“Poland must pay €500,000-a-day to Brussels over controversial coal mine, says ECJ”, Euronews, 21 September 2021)

Greece: Major fire at migrant camp 
On 19 September, a major fire broke out in abandoned sheds in the western side of the Samos camp. The affected Vathy migrant camp’s fire was brought under control by thirteen fire fighters and six fire engines. The camp was evacuated entirely, previously housing 300 people awaiting their Monday transfer to a closed camp. 10 unaccompanied minors were transported to the closed Samos facility while the rest of the asylum seekers will be transferred on Monday as scheduled. (“Greece: Major fire breaks out at soon-to-be-closed migrant camp”, Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2021)

Russia: University shooting leaves six dead 
On 20 September six people succumbed to death in an open fire in a university by a student. The University, which hosts 12,000 students, had 3,000 people in the campus at the time. The University located in Perm, reported six dead and 28 injured among the 19 people shot as reported by the Russian authorities. The authorities provided no further information beyond mentioning that the shooter was a student and regarding the change in the previously reported eight dead to the updated news on only six deaths. (“Several killed in shooting at Russian university”, Al Jazeera, 20 September 2021)

Kosovo: Serbs protest over road restrictions 
On 20 September, the Kosovo police denied entry of cars with Serbian license plates from crossing borders. Protestors have blocked northern Kosovo roads after police authorities have forced drivers from Serbia to hide or remove their license plates and apply for temporary registration valid for 60 days for five pounds. Serbia on the other hand, does not allow cars with a Kosovo license plate from entering its border after losing control of Kosovo in 1999. Citing the history of non-recognition, about 50,000 Serbians living in Kosovo have refused to obey the new orders in force from 20 September and blocked roads in protests. The police charged the protestors with armed riot gear and vehicles until the PM said that the move was a retaliatory measure against Belgrade and not to harm drivers. (“Serbs block roads in Kosovo in protest over licence plate restrictions”, Reuters, 20 September 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
France: Emmanuel Macron asks veteran Algerians for forgiveness 
President Emmanuel Macron has asked veteran Algerians for forgiveness. The group known as the Harkis suffered savage reprisals and denial of better living conditions after the French government refused to recognise their rights to stay in France. He expressed gratitude and forgiveness in hopes of straightening the relations between the countries that have been fraught since 1962. Recently in March, the French government had also accepted to the tortured death of an Algerian activist more than 60 years ago. Macron highlighted plans for a commission into the squalid French camps where the children of the former fighters were forced to live. From the 200,00 Harkis that fought for France only 42,000 were allowed to live in France in the wake of Algerian freedom. Despite previous apologies the Harkis group reports the inadequate fund of USD 50 million announced 3 years ago. While Macron was heckled by a few interrupting with “empty promises” most of the audience welcomed his speech. (“France’s Emmanuel Macron heckled asking Algerian veterans for forgiveness”, Reuters, 20 September 2021)

United Nations: General Assembly set to open with looming AUKUS rifts 
The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) is set to open on September 21 in the shadow of the diplomatic spat between AUKUS members and France. Experts predict that the looming rift may divert the countries from focusing on climate issues. France cleared its priorities ahead of the meeting, putting climate discussion in the first place, followed by multilateralism and “cleaning up the AUKUS mess”. The high-level energy meet is set against the backdrop of Biden’s debut in the UNGA along with France’s disappointment with the AUKUS deal. (“German minister: Submarine dispute is a ‘wake-up call’”, Deutsche Welle, 21 September 2021)


20 September 2021

Profile: The Failed France-Australia Submarine Deal

AUKUS to enable the US and UK to share cutting edge technology with Australia

Photo : SCMP


IN FOCUS 
By Vaishnavi Iyer  

Profile: The Failed France-Australia Submarine Deal
In 2016, The Franco-Australian 90 billion (USD) Submarine deal was signed under the socialist president Francois Hollande. The aim was to establish a strategic partnership agreement with Australia. The Australian Navy’s 6 Collins-class submarines are set to end service in 2036. Thus, it was essential for Australia to invest in a deal in face of an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific region. France has nearly two million of its population living in the Indo-pacific, inclusive of New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Nearly 7000 French soldiers patrol the South China Sea. In the submarine deal of 2016, Australia chose France over Japan and Germany to replace its old submarines with 12 diesel-electric submarines. 

It was confirmed by the French government on numerous occasions that the deal was still in action. In a meeting on 30 August, both countries had made specific references to the important future submarine programme and deepening defence operations. Two weeks later, the Australian counterpart tore up the deal. At a point in time, the Australian government referred to the Future Submarine project as one of the most complex and largest defence acquisitions in the history of the nation. This was a counter to China’s growing military fleet which had doubled since 2015. However, the deal was torn up owing to the same reason. Australia expressed no regret in mentioning that the French Submarine would not be able to provide for the level of defence required against the Chinese counterparts, which are now the largest navy in the region. While Australia cancelled the deal over the inadequacy of the French Submarines; the deal is to be understood as a non-commercial contract for France as well. The deal would have allowed France to underpin its influence in the  Indo-Pacific region. 

The present deal (AUKUS) will enable the US and UK to share cutting edge technology with Australia, including artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. Essentially, it will consist of security and military capability enhancements. The eight nuclear-powered submarines will be in operation by the Royal Australian Navy. In the future, Australia is set to acquire long-range missiles for its armed forces. The new deal seems more beneficial for Australia given the nuclear technology information access enabled by the US. Moreover, the new deal is significant in terms of the allies coming together after the Second World war; making the deal comparatively historic, or rather as historic as sharing the deal with France. Thus, in terms of the technological and historic benefits; the AUKUS deal promises more significance and power for Australia in the Indo-Pacific region than the now failed French deal. 

References:  
C. Raja Mohan, “Expert Explains: Why the defence deal among US, Australia and UK has irked France”, The Economist, 20 September 2021.
Lidia Kelly and John Mair, “Australia defends scrapping of French submarine deal, Macron and Biden to talk”, Reuters, 19 September 2021.
“How a submarine deal sparked a major diplomatic crisis”, Al Jazeera, 19 September 2021.

IN BRIEF 
by Joeana Cera Matthews 

REGIONAL 
Russia: Election’s near final results suggest pro-Kremlin party win
On 19 September, Russia completed its three-day parliamentary election polling process. Amidst allegations of voting violations and other fraudulent activities, the results pointed towards the ruling pro-Kremlin United Russia party garnering an overwhelming majority. With just 0.1 per cent of ballots uncounted, the Central Election Commission released that United Russia won 50 per cent of the votes in comparison to the almost 19 per cent garnered by rivaling Communist Party. Calling the elections unfair and undemocratic, statements were released from the US State Department, the British Foreign Ministry, and the EU Foreign Policy Chief. Russian voting authorities, however, maintain that those voting stations which witnessed irregularities had their results voided, implying a fair election. Final results are expected to be declared this Friday while Putin is yet to make announcements for contesting any post. (“Rivals allege mass fraud as Russian pro-Putin party wins big majority”, Reuters, 20 September 2021) 

Spain: Volcano erupts on La Palma of Canary Islands; evacuations underway 
On 19 September, a volcano located on La Palma — the fifth-largest island in Spain’s Canary Islands— erupted following heightened seismic activity for over a week. Around 5000 people were evacuated from the region, and no fatalities have been reported. One of the most active volcanoes in the archipelago, more than 22000 tremors measured at 3.8-magnitude were felt on the surface. Seismologists maintain that the duration of the eruption is unpredictable as previous records read that they lasted from weeks to months. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited the site and promised state support to La Palma. (“Canary Islands: Volcano eruption on La Palma destroys homes, no injuries”, Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2021) 

LGBTQIA+  
Ukraine: Kyiv’s annual Pride march attended by over 7000 
On 19 September, over 7000 people attended the annual March for Equality supporting the rights of the LGBTQ community in Kyiv. Concerns of violence loomed large as around 100 far-right activists counter-demonstrated in a nearby park. However, the country’s tenth Pride rally occurred without any trouble. Carrying banners that read, ‘Fight for right!’, which referred to eight demands made to Ukrainian authorities, the marchers called for substantial changes to be made with regard to how they were treated. Last year's parade had been cancelled due to the pandemic. (“Ukraine: Thousands march for LGBTQ rights”, Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2021) 

INTERNATIONAL 
AUKUS: France continues backlash over failed submarine deal 
On 19 September, the aftermath of the AUKUS deal continued with the French defense minister canceling a meeting scheduled with her British counterpart. Meanwhile, in an attempt to mend Anglo-French relations, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “Our love for France is ineradicable.” On the US President Joe Biden’s request, a telephonic conversation between him and French President Emmanuel Macron is also expected. However, the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian accused the US and Australia of  ‘duplicity, disdain and lies’ while adding that Britain looked like a ‘third wheel’ in the entire deal. (“France accuses US, Australia of ‘duplicity’ over submarine deal collapse”, Deutsche Welle, 19 September 2021; “France scorned: Allies seek to soften submarine contract fallout”, Deutsche Welle, 20 September 2021) 

Also read…
On 13 September, a Washington Post editorial talked about the legacy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Calling her the ‘doyenne of European politics’, the article mentions how Merkel’s legacy is a complicated one to decipher. An equally praised and criticized politician who has been repeatedly termed as one among the most influential women of her times, Merkel’s departure is expected to leave a political vacuum. Attempts by Merkel to place Germany as the bridge between Eastern and Western Europe, the article reads, stem from her personal experiences. Further on, it portrays Merkel’s efficient leadership that helped battle the successive crises which struck Europe — from the late 2009 eurozone debt crisis to the recent pandemic. Though it divided Europe, her decision to open Germany to the Syrians during the 2015 migrant surge is considered to be her greatest achievement. Merkel’s ability to separate the nefarious activities of China and Russia from interfering in trade and economics factors into her uniqueness. Marking the end of an era, the article concludes with one of Merkel’s modest replies — she wants to go down in history as ‘someone who tried’. (Loveday Morris, “After 16 years, Germany’s Merkel is stepping down. Here’s how she built her legacy.”, The Washington Post, 13 September 2021) 


19 September 2021

AUKUS: US, UK, Australia and France

A submarine deal with Australia divides the European Allies of the US

Photo : SCMP


IN FOCUS
The AUKUS agreement between the US, UK and Australia
By Vaishnavi Iyer
Announcing a historic pact, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom have decided on security cooperations, in an effort to counter China. The trilateral programme is focused on knowledge sharing of nuclear-powered submarines. Australia, being the primary beneficiary in the deal, is looking at modernizing its security challenges over the next decade. The pact is deemed the most significant between the three countries post the second World war. The pact will enable the US and UK to share cutting edge technology with Australia, including artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. Essentially, it will consist of security and military capability enhancements. 

The three countries did not explicitly mention China as the counter force but insisted on having to provide for a solid strategy against the growing threats in the Indo Pacific region. China has been flexing its military muscle in the region near the South China Sea to Ladakh. The alliance has deemed the move necessary to push high skilled jobs and maritime security. 

The United States will be sharing its nuclear submarine technology after 50 years. The eight nuclear powered submarines will be in operation by the Royal Australian Navy. In the future Australia is set to acquire long range missiles for its armed forces. Australia has reassured that it doesn't aim to obtain nuclear weapons. 
The move has been largely discouraged by China and has been deemed as 'damaging'. The country highlighted the consequence of a looming arms race leading to international distrust. France has expressed dissatisfaction with Australia for the consequent cancellation of submarine building alliance between the two countries. Australia was set to receive 12 attack-class submarines from France, which has now been terminated. The UK still insists that relations with France are solid. France reports complications of relations with Australia and the US calling the move a 'stab in the back'. The France-Australia deal was in fact reaffirmed two weeks ago, without any indication of the coming AUKUS. France predicts a harsh future legal battle with Australia over the contract. France also attacked the concerning 'American behaviour' citing Biden's decision to be a reflection of his predecessor Trump's unpredictability. This pact also allows for separate operations of these three countries from the Five Eyes. The following alliance hints at a powerful shift in region. Despite being a part of the QUAD, the formation of AUKUS highlights a larger power play in the region. 

References: 
1.    Krishn Kaushik, "Explained: The AUKUS agreement to equip Australia with n-subs, and why it has upset France", Indian Express, 17 September 2021.
2.    Suranjana Tewari, "Aukus: UK, US and Australia pact signals Asia-Pacific power shift", BBC, 16 September 2021.
3.    "The Guardian view on the Aukus defence pact: taking on China", The Guardian, September 16 2021. 

IN BRIEF
by Joeana Cera Mathews

REGIONAL
Poland: Warsaw asked to change rape definition, unrestrict media 
On 16 September, Poland was criticized by European institutions for its various legal and human rights violations. The Council of Europe (CoE) - Europe’s leading human rights organization - while reviewing Europe’s implementation of the 2014 Istanbul Convention asked Warsaw to change its legal definition of rape from a force-based act to include all non-consensual sex. Separately, the European Parliament voted largely in favour of a resolution concerning Poland’s media freedom. The non-binding resolution mentioned other violations such as the reducing independence of the judiciary and legal silencing of critics. It also stated that the EU withheld funds as SRHR violations and discriminations against the LGBTQIA+ community continued in Poland. (“Change rape definition, stop restricting media, Europe tells Poland”, Reuters, 16 September 2021)

The Netherlands: Foreign minister resigns over Afghanistan crisis (DW) 
On 16 September, Dutch Foreign Minister Sigrid Kaag lost a parliamentary no-confidence vote over her mishandling of refugee evacuation from Taliban-seized Afghanistan. Following the vote, she tendered her resignation. During a parliamentary debate on Wednesday, she had admitted that the government's response to the worsening Afghan situation had been slow, implying evacuation of a lot of Dutch citizens and other Dutch associates wasn't done in time. Kaag, who became foreign minister only in May of this year, intends to continue leading her D66 party. (“Dutch foreign minister resigns over Afghan evacuation crisis”, Deutsche Welle, 16 September 2021)

COVID-19 & THE EU
‘HERA’: EU’s launches health crisis body 
On 16 September, The European Commission launched its health crisis body - ‘HERA’, short for ‘Health Emergency preparedness and Response Authority’. The body is expected to assess potential health threats, promote research as well as provide emergency funding in the face of a new health crisis. HERA has been created to avoid a repetition of the ad hoc measures that were taken by individual EU members when the coronavirus pandemic began. The European Commission Vice President Margritis Schinas said that HERA, though an addition to other EU health agencies, would be the primary instrument to coordinate preparedness and future response. It will be fully operational by early 2022. (“EU launches health crisis body to prepare for future pandemic”, Reuters, 16 September 2021)

France: Health workers suspended over vaccine refusal 
On 16 September, 3000 health workers across France were suspended without pay as they failed to comply with the French mandate of compulsory vaccinations which came into effect on 15 September. French Health Minister Olivier Veran, in a statement, said that the suspensions were temporary and many of the people had realized that the mandate was a reality. The impact is limited as most of the suspended staff work in supporting roles. Critics have objected to the move as it forces people to get the jab. Other countries in the region like Italy, the Netherlands, and Britain are also considering similar measures to increase vaccination rates. (“France suspends 3,000 health staff as Europe targets vaccine refusal”, Reuters, 16 September 2021)

INTERNATIONAL
France: Macron claims to have killed Greater Saharan IS leader 
On 16 September, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed that French military forces had killed an Islamic State (IS) leader in the Sahel region of west Africa. The historical IS leader Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, whose group targeted US soldiers in a 2017 attack in Niger, is said to have been killed. Apart from mentioning the casualties, no further details were provided via Macron’s statement. If Sahrawi’s death is confirmed, it will be a blow to the IS, but the recent series of victories may soften the blow. (“France says it has killed Islamic State leader in Greater Sahara”, The Guardian, 16 September 2021)