1 April 2018
Dissertation

Outer Space and Conflict in the 21st Century

Dissertation Conclusion

Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge."

Sun Tzu, the Art of War. 5 BCE

Nations should work together in bringing the planetary resources under human maintenance and control. This would eventually create a conflict of interests and here is where a formal legal regime that can monitor activities and can make binding rules for earthlings as a whole and not based on nations. A unified system that controls human-activity in the space can ensure stability. However, the nations have established themselves in the space to an extent where this is not possible. Nonetheless, an organisation that holds nations accountable and records activities in the space could be a beginning to control the exceeding scope of conflict in the outer space.

"Absence of an authority is much worse than bad authority," The Moon, closest to the earth may well be the solution to the two biggest problems that the earth may face in the future- Water and Energy. The most important materials on the surface of the moon include deposits of water ice and other volatiles trapped in cold (less than 100 Kelvin or minus 173 degrees Celsius) and permanently shadowed craters at the lunar poles. ISRU undoubtedly will benefit future scientific exploration. The lunar surface rocks and soils are rich in (though expensive to bring them to the earth) raw materials such as magnesium, aluminium, silicon, iron, and titanium. This would be of immense help if the lunar industrial infrastructure is gradually built up, making the Moon be able to provide more sophisticated products to Earth-orbiting facilities.  Non- Military activities in the outer space include- space tourism, 3D printing of satellites, planetary resource exploitation, setting up of manned stations on the moon, remote sensing of the earth, television broadcasting, telecommunications, telemedicine, television broadcasting and a range of other things. These scientific aspects need to take precedence over contention for supremacy. 

The Case for Mars and Mining the Sky both draw a sharp contrast between a brilliant space-faring future and a bleak existence if humanity remains Earth-bound. Mining the Sky succeeds in conveying a sense that space is anything but an empty, unimprovable wasteland. The moon's ample supply of helium-3, long touted by space buffs as a potential fuel for advanced fusion reactors, is duly noted, as are the even larger supplies of the substance in the atmospheres of all of the giant outer planets. 

Harmony among the players cannot be expected. Nations are bound to confront and there needs to be a pre-existing system (a legality with binding rules) to put any form of confrontation to end. Eventually, Mars, the asteroids, and the rest of the solar system may have been explored and settled.  The Case for Mars, ultimately, is based more on the need for a frontier than on any shortage of terrestrial minerals. Mars would give rise to a dynamic new branch of human civilization, one whose entrepreneurial energies would re-invigorate Earth society as well. In the Case for Mars, ultimately, is based more on the need for a frontier than on any shortage of terrestrial minerals.

While as far as anyone knows there are currently no weapons deployed in space, the United States has invested in developing potential technologies, and both China and the United States have demonstrated anti-satellite capabilities in 2007 and 2008, respectively. In response to the potential threats of space weaponization, as well as perceived ballistic missile threats, the US is also developing a ballistic missile defence shield. While missile defence is presented as a defence of American and allied territories against a limited missile attack, it is, in reality, one more step towards full spectrum dominance.

The vulnerability has increased over recent decades, as space is no longer the domain of a very few superpowers, and the number of space-faring and space-capable nations has continued to grow, including the European Union (EU), China, India, Iran, Japan, South Korea, and potentially North Korea. The demonstration of ASAT capabilities by various states has exacerbated these tensions. Although to date these have all been launched from Earth (ground, sea, or air), and do not amount to the weaponization of space, the fact that the capability has been demonstrated is enough to raise concerns that space is no longer the high ground once envisioned. 

The problem of space debris and the problem of the larger space powers to engage in the weaponization of satellites; be it for first-strike or for defensive purposes are the problems at hand. Apart from these, the high military dependence of nations on their assets in the space could lead to problems such as spying, hacking and targeted damages to each others’ satellites.

Nothing in the widely accepted Outer Space Treaty referred to space debris. And the succeeding treaties, even the 1979 Moon Agreement, have not regulated space debris. There are also no legally binding rules to refrain from creating space debris. 

India’s Outer Space capabilities hence are potential to both security and soft power strategy. What is essential is how this potential is translated into policy and eventually implemented into the system. The timing of this process is also extremely vital as the saying goes, “you snooze, you lose.” Keeping these in mind, let us look at how India can try and strengthen this potential of using ISRO and its achievements for strengthening India’s soft power. 

ISRO’s missions have both far-reaching impacts from commercial, as well as national security perspectives. India has been known for its affordable yet credible missions in the global space industry for long, but it is these recent missions that illustrate what it can deliver. These missions increase India’s position as a partner in the commercial sector for satellite launches.

Given its growing requirements, India must tackle two important dimensions: commercialization and increasing private sector participation, and the widening gap between the space capacity holders and the nations that cannot afford space capabilities. While ISRO has accomplished a great deal, and is one of the public enterprises that has done India proud, it cannot deliver on the multitude of requirements that India has. Globally speaking, space debris, potential weaponization of space, cyber arms race in outer space, and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons are becoming major challenges, pushing states to write new rules of the road. India, being an established space player, should play an active role in shaping these and not lose the opportunity.

Taking an example- China has been quietly making investments in some non-military fields with a view to engaging other nations. Space Technology is one area where China is engaging developing nations by providing them assistance to either develop their space programme or to launch satellites on their behalf. For the last few years China is using its space industry to extend its Soft-Power. It is establishing linkages in the space arena with countries in Africa and South America, including Nigeria, Venezuela, and Brazil. China’s ultimate objectives are the natural resources and markets in these parts of the world. China is taking its friendship with Pakistan to a higher plane by helping the latter in the space field as well. It signed an agreement with Pakistan a fortnight back, granting a $200 million loan for satellite construction. China has also promised Bolivia help in developing its space programme within three years and in the launch of its first satellite. It has also been reported that China would be building and launching a communications satellite for Laos.

China has been strategically positioning itself as a focal point for all space-related activities, from providing financial assistance to manufacturing, and launching facilities for states in Asia, Africa and South America. This approach will have multiple benefits – an increase in China’s global footprint, flow of benefits to the Chinese space industry, experimentation with new technologies, and win friends. Keeping these in the background, here are a few suggestions for Indian Space Programme to strengthen its position in Space.  

First, further the SAARC satellite initiative and establish a strong base among the neighbouring states. South Asia is facing severe geographical issues- in terms of earthquakes, drought, abnormal rains, other natural calamities. India’s capacity can be stretched to invest on a pan-South Asian weather satellite similar to ISRO’s SCATSAT-1. Apart from the dual benefits(studying the weather and having a fair warning mechanism), India could also rely on this satellite for its Indian Ocean activities. 

While the world today looks at commercialising the Outer Space resources and strengthening their first strike capabilities in the space, India can help support and benefit the smaller, interested nations in setting up their space presence for a lower cost. Though this has been happening in a small manner already, India should go further and aim to be the popular representative to these nations on similar lines of China. 

Thirdly, an Industrial establishment that would professionally make and sell satellites to nations initially and private actors eventually would benefit India. An Industrial establishment of ISRO’s technology would strengthen our position as a space power. While establishing this industry, Cost Efficient Satellites is a selling point of India’s technology. Along with satellites, India must also strive to industrialise the market of the other industrial essentials in the space starting with space suits, masks, spares, software, and the numerous aspects that make outer space activities possible. Self-sufficiency and an affordable market would be the outcome of this. 

Indian education, especially engineering and science-related education is being widely appreciated in various parts of the world. India could begin introducing specific courses and scholarships and eventually establish research centres that are purely focussed on Space activities. These scholarships must try and draw talented and curious students from various parts of the world, creating a community of dreamers and thinkers with an aim to explore and understand the space better. It is here that the Industry aspect would also come in play.  

Lastly, as we all know, the law and the principles that are related to the outer space and nations are alarmingly outdated. India with the example it sets should push for the reforms in the law. Taking a neutral position, India can use its power in ensuring that the outer space is an asset and remains a “province of all…” As the players in the outer space increase, there will be conflict pertaining to ownership and security. These are the questions that India should represent and push for discussions on them

Department of International Studies and History, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore