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CWA # 1177, 31 December 2023
The World This Year
China and East Asia

  Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

Major Developments in 2023
In 2023, China maintained a confrontational approach towards Taiwan, driven by domestic considerations and the upcoming elections. Beijing sought to influence Taiwan's political landscape and was careful not to let tensions spiral out of control. Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections were scheduled for January 2024, and China viewed its role as important in helping bring about a favourable outcome. The United States supported Taiwan, with President Biden stating that US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. China continued its military activities near Taiwan, while Taiwan bolstered its defences. The potential for a conflict over Taiwan and its impact on the global economy remained a concern. Despite the tensions, research suggested that many Taiwanese people were untroubled. Most people in Taiwan identified as Taiwanese, embracing their independent governance. The ongoing military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait had disrupted economic activities, further complicating the situation between China and Taiwan.
With Japan, geopolitical disagreements and improved communication highlighted China's approach. Leaders held face-to-face meetings to build a cordial relationship, indicating a potential turning point in their relations. A significant development was the establishment of a hotline between Japanese and Chinese defence authorities to enhance crisis communication and avoid unexpected confrontations in the East China Sea. This mechanism aimed to prevent accidental collisions and mitigate the risks of unforeseen events escalating into crises. While the hotline and other confidence-building measures were steps towards improving relations, challenges remained in ensuring effective crisis communication and building mutual trust. The overall trajectory of China-Japan relations in 2023 suggested a delicate balance between economic partnership and lingering tensions rooted in historical conflicts and geopolitical differences. The search did not provide specific details of all the events that occurred between China and Japan in 2023. However, it highlighted the efforts of the two countries to improve their relationship through face-to-face meetings and the establishment of a hotline for crisis communication. The information also emphasized the ongoing geopolitical disagreements and the challenges in building mutual trust. If there were specific events or developments that you would like to know more about, please feel free to ask.

In 2023, China and South Korea's relationship was marked by tensions and efforts to improve communication. South Korea's President, Yoon Suk-Yeol, had talked tough on China during his campaign, and conservative South Korean politicians typically deepen the U.S. alliance and are suspicious of Chinese support to North Korea. However, Yoon's China policy has been unexpectedly successful thus far, with China and South Korea becoming cooperation partners with highly integrated interests and interconnected production and supply chains. South Korea sought to avoid becoming embroiled in a tit-for-tat row between China and the United States, and China warned South Korea not to politicize economic issues. The two countries have become cooperation partners, but challenges remain in building mutual trust and managing geopolitical differences. Meanwhile, China, Japan, and South Korea agreed to hold talks to calm fears over the US ties, with the prospects for a revival of formal talks between the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea rising following a recent thaw in ties between Tokyo and Seoul. The three countries had agreed to hold summits every year starting in 2008 to bolster diplomatic and economic ties, but the plan has been blocked by bilateral rows and the COVID-19 pandemic. The last trilateral leaders' meeting was in 2011.

In 2023, the relationship between China and North Korea experienced significant strain despite being allies. North Korea's accelerated nuclear and ballistic missile tests, deliberately timed to coincide with high-profile international events, strained its relationship with China. While China remains North Korea's most important trading partner, accounting for over 90 per cent of its total trade volume, the two countries' differing geopolitical and military modernization strategies have led to a complex and strained relationship. China has advocated for the resumption of the Six Party Talks aimed at denuclearizing North Korea, but North Korea's recent diplomatic push with the United States and South Korea has further complicated its relationship with Beijing. Additionally, the emergence of a developing trilateral partnership between Russia, China, and North Korea has added to the complexity of the situation, with each country pursuing its own imperialistic goals. Despite the strain, it is unlikely that China will sever relations with North Korea, as Beijing is content with the degree of influence it holds over the regime, using it to contest the West and the United States while maintaining control over foreign policy issues within its immediate borders.

Major Issues in 2023
China claims Taiwan as its own, while Taiwan asserts its independence. This conflict fuels military buildups and raises the risk of US-China confrontation. 

Tensions rose due to North Korea's nuclear and missile tests, straining China's diplomatic efforts and raising concerns about its alliance. South Korea's alignment with the U.S. and its participation in regional initiatives irk China, leading to economic and diplomatic tensions. 

Economic interdependence creates leverage and vulnerability, with trade bans and boycotts becoming tools of pressure. The "Chip 4" dialogue and China's economic weight in the high-tech sector add another layer of tension. Differing approaches to globalization and regional economic cooperation fuel competition and suspicion.

The issue of radioactive wastewater from Fukushima highlights Japan's environmental policies and China's growing environmental concerns. Unresolved historical grievances and territorial disputes, including those in the South China Sea, continue to cast a shadow over relations. Competition for resources, including fisheries, fuels territorial disputes and maritime tensions. Appeals to nationalism and historical narratives complicate efforts at reconciliation and mutual understanding.

2024: Looking Ahead
While 2023 witnessed significant friction across various East Asian relationships, there were also promising efforts to improve communication and manage disagreements. Initiatives like the China-Japan hotline and the potential revival of trilateral summits demonstrate a willingness to engage and avoid escalation. However, the core issues – sovereignty disputes, differing ideologies, and historical burdens – remain unresolved, keeping tensions simmering beneath the surface.

Second, despite the political and ideological differences, East Asian countries are deeply intertwined economically. The integrated supply chains and interconnected production processes create a strong incentive for collaboration, particularly in areas like trade and infrastructure. Finding common ground on these issues could pave the way for broader cooperation and de-escalation of tensions.

Third, the unpredictability of North Korea and the upcoming Taiwanese elections add another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. The potential for these issues to spiral into crises underscores the need for proactive engagement and conflict resolution mechanisms. Open communication, confidence-building measures, and a commitment to peaceful solutions will be crucial in navigating the uncertainties ahead.

About the author
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

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