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The World This Week
The US Sanctions on China and Putin-Xi Summit

  GP Team
19 May 2024

The World This Week #265, Vol. 6, No.19
19 May 2024

Lakshmi karlekar and Padmashree Anandhan

Putin-Xi Summit: Towards a Strategic transformation in Russia-China relations 
Padmashree Anandhan

What happened?
On 16 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for the second time in the last 12 months. President Xi said, "China and Russia have shown others an example of building a new type of interstate relations and relations between major neighbours. All this was made possible because both parties were committed to the following five principles." 

On 16 May, in his address, Putin said: "The negotiations just held showed the great importance that both Moscow and Beijing attach to the development and strengthening of the Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction."

On 17 May, in a press briefing, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby commented on Putin's visit to China. He said: "Leaders of two countries that - that clearly are acting in various ways around the world inimical to our national security interests, to the interests of many of our allies and partners... they're also two leaders that don't have a long history of working together, and officials in both governments that - that aren't necessarily all that trustful of the other." On the US perception of Russia-China relations and engagement in war in Ukraine, Kirby added: "...the challenges that both countries that represent, and we take seriously this burgeoning relationship between the two of them...President Xi rush to the effort to assist the Russian Armed Forces and provide lethal capabilities...some of these Chinese companies that are providing microelectronics and components for Russia's defensive weapons systems.  That's a problem, and we've raised that with the Chinese as well."

What is the background?
First, the strategic transformation in the Russia-China relationship. Following the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, the former Soviet Union established the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance, and Mutual Assistance. Mao Zedong and Joseph Stalin aimed to strengthen their friendship while promoting the socialist cause. Relations soured in the mid-50s and escalated in the 1960s to a war. During the 1980s, tensions remained high over the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, the Soviet support to Vietnam, and its deployment of troops along the Sino-Soviet border and Sino-Mongolian border. Under Deng Xiaoping, pragmatism led to a relaxation of the tensions. By the late 1980s, Russia and China agreed to step up their relations. During 1989 and 1991, the first high-level meetings between Mikhail Gorbachev and Jiang Zemin led to a Partnership of Strategic Cooperation in 1996. By the 2000s, the relationship witnessed steady improvement, leading to the formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), settling border disputes and a significant boost of economic and military cooperation. The bilateral trade increased six times from USD eight billion to USD 55.5 billion. Russia-China relations furthered into a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2010. The War in Ukraine and the US-China tensions during the 2010s have further strengthened the above.

Second, increasing Russia-China collaboration since the Ukraine War. The joint statement by Russia and China ahead of the war on 04 February 2022 marked the recovery of the relations post-pandemic and as a precursor to the war. Since August 2021, both have engaged in joint military exercises and naval patrol through the South African Navy. On the Ukraine war, China has assured its commitment to sovereignty, called for an immediate ceasefire, and abstained in UNSC resolutions but had not provided full weapon support in the initial stages of the war. In February 2023, Beijing also released a 12-point statement proposing a "political settlement to the Ukraine crisis," The "Comprehensive Partnership and Strategic Cooperation for a New Era" promotes Russian-Chinese Economic Cooperation until 2030, especially in energy cooperation such as building the new Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline across Mongolia, the opening Asia-Pacific strategy against the Indo-Pacific strategy, and increasing its total trade to USD 250 billion by 2024. The collaborations have deepened in energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, electronics, and machinery, and the use of national currency in trade, finance, and technology. 

Third, apprehensions in bilateral relations. Central Asia, Russia's Far East, and, recently, the Arctic remain the points of bilateral contention between China and Russia. Moscow has cautiously approached China in joining BRI by keeping its objectives and interests forward. Despite the scope of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and BRI integration, the strategic ties between both have been limited outside BRI. To rebalance, Russia emphasizes multilateral institutions, such as BRICS, SCO, and the Russia-India-China trilateral initiative, to outgrow China's influence. Moscow is also concerned over China's presence and investments in Russia's Far East and Siberia, which was declared "a national priority for the 21st century" by Russia. Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic also reflects competition since China began to showcase itself as a "Near-Arctic State." 

What does this mean?
First, advantage China.  Closer ties after the war in Ukraine have lifted the mutual understanding principle. This means China's support to Russia in the war and Russian acceptance of China's sovereignty and territorial claims. Over the 75 years, Russia's ending of the border dispute emerged in the 1990s, helping China to focus on its periphery. Apart from this, China's integration into Central Asia and regional forums through Russia has helped expand its BRI initiative. Although these factors contribute to different facets to improve their equation, the high-level political support remains the binding factor.

Second, managing strategic balance and tactical tensions. The trend of the Russia-China relationship is similar to that of an N-shaped Kuznets curve. The relations witnessed a spark of friendship till the 1960's and dipped down till the 1980's. Still, it is a clear departure from the Cold War mentality heading into a strategic improvement with geopolitical complexities. China, at present, holds a strategic position with a growing military strength and global economic influence. Meanwhile, for Russia, the strategy remains a tactical play-out situation at the inter-economic and sub-regional level so as not to let the rope loose. At the same time, it swerves in the fallouts of the war in Ukraine. 

The New US Sanctions on China: Bilateral and Global Fallouts of US-China Trade War
Lakshmi Karlekar

What happened? 
On 14 May, President Biden announced an increase in tariffs on specific Chinese imports amounting to USD 18 billion to force China to curtail its unfair trade practices, including government subsidies and preferential treatment given to domestic manufacturing. 

On 09 May, the US Commerce Department added 37 units of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) to the Entity List. Earlier, on 01 May, the US also placed sanctions on 20 Chinese and Hong Kong-based companies, including Jiangxi Xintuo Enterprise, which supported Russia's military by developing, acquiring, and distributing Russian drones and satellite systems. 

What is the background? 
First, the ongoing US-China trade war that began in 2018. Former US President Donald Trump started imposing tariffs and other trade barriers as sanctions on China, intending to pressure China to alter its unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. Since then, China has been subject to sanctions by the US over issues including violations of human rights, its involvement in espionage, and backing of Russia's military operations in Ukraine. The US sanctions aim to limit China's technological prowess by restricting access to important tech suppliers.

Second, the complaint over China's subsidies. The Chinese government has been pouring state funds into various industries for years: semiconductors, electric cars, solar panels, steel, aluminum, and essential medical supplies like masks and gloves. These products have received significant subsidies from China, forcing Chinese businesses to produce far beyond what the rest of the world can use. Furthermore, other manufacturers worldwide are in trouble due to these excess products being pushed onto marketplaces at unfairly low prices. 

Third, the national security and human rights concerns relating to the US's sanctions. President Biden declared that additional tariffs would target particular goods and industries. The US Department of Commerce reports that 721 Chinese companies have been placed on an "entity list" that limits their capacity to buy products from the US. 
Fourth, Beijing's response to the sanctions. China has recently implemented several measures, including the following. The Unreliable Entity List (UEL) and the Rules on Counteracting Unjustified Extra-Territorial Application of Foreign Laws and Other Measures were established by two orders issued by China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) in September 2020 and January 2021, respectively. China also enacted the Foreign Relations Law in June 2023 and the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law ("AFSL") in June 2021, which gave the Chinese government the power to retaliate against sanctions from the US. 

What does it mean?
First, the fallout of US sanctions on China. The sanctions have increased producer expenses, consumer pricing, and financial hardships for US farmers. The trade conflict in China exacerbated a downward trend in the country's already diminishing industrial and economic output growth rate. Stock market volatility was another result. There are concerns that the trade war may cause the US and Chinese economies to "decouple" due to the relocation of many American companies' supply chains to other parts of Asia. Increasing tariffs can significantly harm economic activity in a globalized society with global value chains. Global sourcing by businesses generally suggests that higher tariffs typically applied to safeguard domestic industries may result in higher input costs for domestic producers. It debunks the essence of liberal trade with no barriers to the free flow of goods and services.

Second, the Blocking Statues outside the US. The European Union, Canada, and the United Kingdom have enacted blocking statutes in response to the secondary sanctions, complex enforcement, and compliance issues that the United States has created for China. These statutes usually permit companies to violate US laws but also mandate that companies notify the appropriate authorities of any US sanctions enforcement actions. Certain companies in the United States and China might take a pragmatic stance towards the sanctions and carry on with their business dealings, directly or indirectly. Yet, they risk paying a fine to US authorities for doing so. Alternatively, they might attempt to evade these penalties and countersanctions by collaborating with companies in other nations, or they might devise alternate strategies to inoculate themselves against these sanctions.

Third, the rise in Chinese Nationalism. Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister of China, declared that Washington's "lengthening" list of unilateral sanctions had reached "bewildering levels of unfathomable absurdity" and charged that Washington was "devising various tactics to suppress China." Wang lauded China's growing relationship and recorded trade with Russia, which would continue despite the actions, in sharp contrast to his remarks about the US China's determination to increase its "self-reliance and strength in science and technology," with Beijing signalling that it will do so rather than do nothing and wait for US tech-related tensions to subside. The Chinese retaliation may take the form of currency devaluation of the Yuan, export restrictions on US product exclusions, or tit-for-tat counter-tariffs.

TWTW Regional Round-ups

News from around the World
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, Akhil Ajith and Neha Tresa George

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Stock markets fall after US announced increased tariffs on Chinese imports
On 15 May, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese stocks fell after the US announced increased tariffs on Chinese products. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.2 per cent to 3,140.34. The CSI 300 Index retreated 0.3 per cent, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose less than 0.1 per cent. Beijing said it would take "full necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests." Tensions rose after the US blamed China for subsidizing Chinese companies, triggering unfavourable competition. Japanese investment bank Nomura said that tariffs on Chinese products will have a ripple effect on China's export sector and will lead to supply chain relocation in the long term.

China: Beijing and Washington engage in intergovernmental talks on AI
On 14 May, China and the US engaged in their first intergovernmental talks held in Geneva on AI and its risk to world governance. The Chinese delegation was led by Yang Tao, director general of the ministry's North American and Oceanian Affairs department. It included the Science and Technology Ministry officials and the National Development and Reform Commission. The US side was led by Tarun Chhabra, special assistant to the president and senior director for technology and national security at the National Security Council, and Seth Center, the State Department's acting special envoy for critical and emerging technology and the Department of Commerce. According to their joint statement, both sides discussed AI technology risks and governance initiatives and measures taken to promote AI-enabled economic and social development. The US side emphasized safe, secure and trustworthy AI for greater benefits. Yang expressed China's willingness to engage in such conversations and said it supports AI in global governance. 

 China: CNY 1trillion long-term treasury bonds to boost economy
On 13 May, the Chinese Ministry of Finance said that it plans to raise CNY 1 trillion in long-term treasury bonds to boost its ailing economy. The ministry said that the bonds will have a tenor of up to 20 to 50 years and will be issued on 17 May. Reuters reported on the ministry's plans to issue CNY300 billion worth of 20-year bonds, CNY600 billion worth of 30-year bonds, and CNY100 billion worth of 50-year bonds to be issued. Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged the ministry to efficiently "use the special government bonds to support the implementation of major national strategies as well as building security capabilities in key areas." 

China: Calls to strengthen cooperation with South Korea without interference, says FM Wang Yi
On 13 May, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his South Korean counterpart that despite challenges, the two countries can strengthen cooperation without interference. His statements come during the South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul's trip to Beijing. Before his trip to China, Cho told Korean business leaders that the economic relations between South Korea and China face risks and challenges due to increasingly fierce competition over technology. South Korea attempts to navigate tense waters amid the ongoing US-China rivalry. He also said that both countries will focus on working together on semiconductors and AI for mutual growth and prosperity. They also discussed the upcoming trilateral partnership with Japan and other regional issues. 

China: Two Chinese companies withdrew from European solar projects amid EU's subsidy investigation
On 13 May, the South China Morning Post reported that two Chinese companies, Longi Solar and Shanghai Electric, withdrew their participation from two solar projects in Europe amid the EU launching an investigation against foreign subsidies. The EU's investigations were part of the foreign subsidies regulation on the firms suspected of undercutting domestic companies. The initial inquiry targeted China's CRRC Qingdao Sifang Locomotive Co, which had withdrawn from the train supply tender by the Bulgarian government after the EU launched the investigation. Additionally, investigations are being carried out against Chinese companies in the wind turbine sector amid suspicion of receiving market distortion subsidies. The regulations led the EU to conduct raids on Nuctech, a Chinese company producing airport and cargo scanning machines, which was flagged as a security risk to the EU. 

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC THIS WEEK
Australia: "Trump supports AUKUS and Australia-US alliance," says Former PM Scott Morrison
On 16 May, former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that former US President Donald Trump supported the AUKUS defence pact and appreciated the Australia-US alliance. His remarks come after he met Trump on 14 May in New York and discussed AUKUS and China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan invasion threat. He mentioned that Trump supported the idea of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Experts highlight concerns for Australia amid Trump's America First policy threatening delay or cancellation of the nuclear submarines to Canberra. PM Anthony Albanese said, "the US will support Australia irrespective of who wins the elections."

Australia: To spend USD 15 billion towards net zero targets, says Treasurer Chalmers
On 14 May, Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced that Australia will spend around AUSD 22.7 billion (USD 15 billion) over the next ten years as it plans to move the country's economy towards net zero goals. Chalmers, while delivering the speech for budget, said that "the spending is targeted towards tackling cost-of-living pressures and promoting an industrial policy agenda dubbed a 'Future Made in Australia'." Nikkei Asia notes Australia's budget surplus of AUSD 9.3 billion in 2024, with the government forecasting economic growth of 1.75 per cent in 2024, higher than 1.5 per cent in 2023. Chalmers mentioned that the government aims to address the issues of sluggish growth and inflation. Chalmers also highlighted the government's prime focus on easing living costs through subsidies, loan cuts, rental support, etc. Amid China's dominance in critical sectors, Chalmers said that Australia must focus on economic security and resilience amid supply chain fragmentation and increased strategic competition. 

South Korea: Seoul and Beijing must seek better economic cooperation on supply chains, says FM Choi
On 16 May, South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said that Seoul and Beijing must seek better economic cooperation on supply chains and raw materials. He said it in his opening remarks at a bilateral video conference with Chairman Zheng Shanjie of China's National Development and Reform Commission. The conference took place along with the first foreign ministerial talks between the two sides in seven months. The talks happened in 2021 when South Korea faced a major supply shortage of urea used in agriculture and industry due to China's export restrictions. The talks are part of Seoul's efforts to stabilize and ensure the supply of critical raw materials imports.

Hong Kong: Chief Executive condemns UK's espionage allegations
On 14 May, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong government, John Lee, condemned the espionage allegations by the British government. His remarks come after the UK charged three of assisting foreign intelligence in London. Lee said that he had requested the case details from the British Consulate-General. The UK officials say the suspects assisted a foreign intelligence agency between December 2023 and May 2024. The accusations had cast doubts on Hong Kong's overseas presence of the Economic and Trade Offices in 4 countries spanning Asia to North America. On 13 May, the accused men appeared at a London court, and their next hearing is set to take place on 24 May. 

SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Pakistan: IMF urges Islamabad to expand poverty alleviation programmes
On 17 May, The Express Tribune reported that the IMF had pressed Pakistan to expand poverty alleviation and social protection programmes and urged the government to increase the coverage and transparency of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). Emphasis was placed on increasing funding and enhancing the budget for cash transfer programmes targeting the poor. Pakistani officials told the IMF delegation that PKR 472 billion would be allocated to BISP this year and that the programme's beneficiaries would be protected from future electricity tariffs. By September 2024, Pakistani authorities want to have 20 million households included in a fully functional registry, with the number of BISP beneficiaries at 9.3 million currently. Further, 300,000 additional families were included in the Kafalat Programme this year, and 900,000 registered in the health cash transfer programme. They also assured the delegation that more funds would be allocated for social security programmes in FY25.

Pakistan: China to upgrade CPEC
On 15 May, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar co-chaired the fifth round of China- Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. Wang Yi reiterated the "ironclad" relationship between the two countries and China's keenness to work with Pakistan to develop an "upgraded version" of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. He stated, "Both sides should effectively implement the Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation, strengthening our cooperation in areas like industry, agriculture, mining, new and energy and information technology." He also called for greater cooperation on counterterrorism security and urged Pakistan to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals and projects in the country. In response, Ishaq Dar described relations with China "as the cornerstone of Pakistan's foreign policy." Dar assured Wang Yi of securing Chinese nationals and assets in the country and pledged greater efforts to punish the perpetrators of the attack on Chinese nationals in March. He further called upon the international community to practice "zero-tolerance" against terrorism. Both leaders recognized the strides made by CPEC in energy and infrastructure and expressed hope of subsequent "positive dividends.

Pakistan: "Pakistanis own USD 11 billion worth property in Dubai," says a report
On 14 May, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project's (OCCRP) Dubai Unlocked Project revealed data showing that, per the latest property leaks, several key Pakistanis, including political figures, former military officials, and bureaucrats, own high-end properties in Dubai. The combined value of these properties Pakistanis own has been estimated to be around USD 11 billion. This 'Dubai Unlocked' project is based on data that provides detailed insight into hundreds of thousands of properties in Dubai, including their ownership and usage, from 2020 to 2022. The Centre for Advanced Studies (C4ADS) in Washington obtained this data, which was then shared with Norwegian financial outlet E24 and the OCCRP, which conducted a six-month investigative project. This investigation included reporters from 74 media outlets in 58 countries and uncovered names of convicted criminals, fugitives, and political figures who have recently owned at least one piece of real estate in Dubai. 

Pakistan: IMF refrains from labelling discussions as "programme negotiations"
On 13 May, Pakistan refrained from labelling ongoing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as "programme negotiations"; instead, it termed the discussions as "further engagement with the fund." The finance ministry has not defined the further engagement, unlike in the past when it had stated that the country was keen to secure the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The visit has been overshadowed by unrest in PoK and the consequent approval of the PKR 23 billion "unbudgeted subsidies" by the Prime Minister of Pakistan to cool down the situation. The approval of the subsidy is seen as weakening political will and an indication that the coalition government may not withstand any wide-scale public pressure due to conditions of the next bailout package. The next IMF program's duration, instrument, and size are open to discussion. The IMF has asked Pakistan to expand the terms of reference of the National Tax Council to include the harmonization of tax rates and bases for agricultural income tax and property tax. The IMF has also urged the Pakistan authorities to encourage provincial governments to step up the collection of provincial taxes and enforcement of provincial tax laws. IMF is concerned about the challenges posed by the existing taxing rights gap between the federal government and the provinces.

Afghanistan: Four killed and seven injured in an attack in Bamyan
On 16 May, four people were killed in the Bamyan province of central Afghanistan when several gunmen opened fire. Among the four killed, three are foreign nationals. The number of people wounded is seven, including four foreign nationals. The Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has revealed in a statement that among those killed, three are Spaniards. The statement also revealed that one Spaniard was injured. In a post on X, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated that the Spaniards were "tourists" and that he was "overwhelmed" by the news. A Taliban official told AP News that four suspects were arrested at the scene. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack so far. The Islamic State group's affiliate in Afghanistan is the likely candidate as it has claimed responsibility for several attacks in the past and is a Taliban rival.

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA THIS WEEK
Israel: ICJ hears South Africa's genocide case
On 16 May, after arguing for more emergency measures in response to Israel's attack on Rafah, South Africa ended its arguments before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). According to South Africa, Israel's military operations in Rafah constitute a "genocidal" campaign that jeopardizes the "very survival of Palestinians." To take further emergency action in response to the Gaza War, on 10 May, South Africa requested that the ICJ order Israel to evacuate from Rafah. South African Ambassador Vusi Madonsela warned of the dangers of former colonial powers denying genocide as Israel continues its onslaught in Gaza. He stated: "Israel is acting with complete impunity in Gaza, escalating a final wave of destruction from which there is no return."

Israel: US to send a new package of more than USD 1 billion in arms and ammunition
On 15 May, according to the congressional aides, the US told prominent lawmakers that it would be sending a 'new package' worth USD 1 billion in 'arms and ammunition' to Israel. It is said to be the first arms shipment consisting of ‘3500 high-payload bombs' to Israel after its announcement on halting the arms supply in response to Israel's attack on Rafah. The congressional staff, however, did not discuss the arms transfer publicly. The staff stated: "The package being sent includes about USD 700 million for tank ammunition, USD 500 million in tactical vehicles and USD 60 million in mortar rounds." 

Israel: IDF moves in Jabaliya camp in northern Gaza
On 15 May, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) asserted that its 98th Division moved into Jabaliya camp in northern Gaza and killed many gunmen. The IDF stated: "Division's 7th and 460th armored brigades battled dozens of armed squads and eliminated a large number of terrorists." According to the Israeli military, a drone strike killed 'members of the cell responsible for rocket fire' in Sderot. Separately, IDF said that its 162nd Division is continuing its ground operations in southern Gaza. The Givati Brigade of the Rafah operations has killed several gunmen at the Hamas base and recovered weapons. The IDF confirmed that Nahal Brigade troops withdrew from Gaza City's Zeitoun neighbourhood. 

Qatar: "Rafah invasion stalled Gaza talks," says Qatar's PM
On 14 May, the Prime Minister of Qatar and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, stated that the ceasefire negotiations had broken down as a result of Israel's invasion of the heavily populated Gaza city of Rafah. At a panel discussion held at the Qatar Economic Forum (QEF) in Lusail, Sheikh Mohammed summarized the most recent developments in the ceasefire negotiations. He said: "Right now we are almost at a status of a stalemate. Of course, what happened with Rafah has set us backwards." On 6 May, Israeli occupation troops launched fatal airstrikes on the surrounding areas of the Gaza-Egypt Rafah Crossing and invaded it. Only hours after Hamas accepted a tentative agreement by mediators Qatar and Egypt, the action was taken at a crucial juncture for the ceasefire negotiations.

Jordan: Attacks on Al Aqsa by Israeli extremists condemned
On 14 May, the Israeli occupation soldiers shielded the radicals when they stormed the Al Aqsa Mosque or Al Haram Al Sharif, obstructing worshippers' path and raising the Israeli flag inside its courtyards. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates denounced this action. According to the ministry statement, the radical action is a "blatant" and intolerable violation of international law as well as the established legal and historical status quo for Jerusalem and its sacred places. According to ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah, the 144-dunum Al Aqsa Mosque is a place of worship dedicated solely to Muslims, and, under international law and the established legal and historical framework, only the Jordan-run Jerusalem Awqaf and Aqsa Affairs Department is qualified to oversee its operations and control entry to the site. 

Lebanon:  Hezbollah targets Israeli forces
On 13 May, Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a strike that wounded five Israeli soldiers. The group said that it had carried out an aerial attack on Israeli soldiers in Beit Hillel. Hezbollah stated: "The attack succeeded in killing and injuring Israeli commanders and soldiers at a newly established site for the 403rd Reserve Artillery Battalion of the 91st Division south of Beit Hillel." Separately, on 10 May, the Hezbollah group said that it had fired Katyusha rockets at Israel and killed two people. 

EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: Calls Azerbaijan to cease its efforts in New Caledonia
On 16 May, France insisted on the seizure of Azerbaijan's interference in the clashes of French-controlled New Caledonia, which the country has denied. The protestors are demanding the independence of the Pacific Ocean archipelago following the French MPs' backing of the changes in the Caledonian constitution that allowed any citizens who had lived there for at least ten years the right to vote. The Kanaks, who are the indigenous people, perceived it as a move to sideline them. Since the French government's occupation of the region, there have been charges that Kanaks have faced 'systemic discrimination' and chronic underdevelopment. France has banned TikTok and also imposed an emergency in the hope of curbing the protests. The French-Azerbaijan relation has hit rock bottom with repeated allegations that the latter supports pro-independence protestors in New Caledonia. The tension has increased in recent years due to France's military and political support to Armenia, which is Azerbaijan's historical rival. While Azerbaijan founded the Baku Initiative Group, which aims to bring together 14 political movements across former French colonies in the name of decolonization, it has also supported the independence movements against France.

Georgian Parliament passed the 'foreign influence' bill amid protests 
On 14 May, the parliament of Georgia had the third and final reading of the 'foreign agent' bill that has triggered protests across the country. While the bill was passed with eighty-four votes against thirty, a few politicians from the ruling Georgian Dream Party and the opposition came to blows, thus escalating the debate. Meanwhile, around 2000 people protested outside the parliament, which has recently become a regular sight in Tbilisi. The bill seeks to frame NGOs, media organizations, and other non-profit organizations as' institutions of foreign agents' if they are funded for more than 20 per cent from abroad. Even though the government had justified the bill as an instrument to reduce the risk of escalating tensions with Russia, critics had argued it was a threat to domestic freedoms as this ultimately would dim the chances of Georgia's membership to EU. While the European Council has expressed disagreement while asking the country to follow democratic principles and the rule of law to be a member, the United States passed a statement saying that it will "reassess" its relations with Georgia if the bill passes into law.

Europe: EU to introduce reforms for migration and asylum
On 14 May, the EU approved the reforms for migration and asylum seekers under the so-called New Pact on Migration and Asylum, with the new rules coming into effect in 2026. It has been in work for eight years, and the economy ministers of the Union's 27 countries have given the final nod for tougher borders and shared responsibility for asylum seekers among the members. The final approval just came before the election to the European Parliament. The pact comprises ten pieces of legislation backed by the majority of the bloc's countries except for Hungary and Poland. The new rule seeks to make the European asylum more effective in increasing the solidarity among the members. Under the new rules, the asylum seekers are to be identified within days of arrival so that their details will be stored in an EU database to determine their chances of risk in permitting to stay. If a particular country faces a burden, it can request more solidarity with all 27 members to decide together in a crisis. The new pact also works for the faster deportation of people if declared safe.

Ukraine: Antony Blinken, US Secretary of the State visit
On 14 May, Blinken's statement on Ukraine's strategic success, marking his visit to Kyiv, was published by the US mission in China. He highlighted the critical moment of war, acknowledging the latest offensive of Russia in Kharkiv and across eastern Ukraine using Iranian drones, North Korea's artillery, missiles, fighter jets and machine equipment given by China. Mentioning the delay in the approval of the USD 60 billion military aid to Ukraine, he expressed solidarity with the US in supporting Ukraine militarily, economically and democratically. On the priority, Blinken said: "We're helping to ensure that Ukraine has the military that it needs to succeed on the battlefield, to secure a just and lasting peace, and to deter future aggression." Highlighting the US-Ukraine ten-year agreement, he said that the US will support Ukraine's defence in boosting its air defence capabilities to the "highest levels". Second, Blinken focused on reviving Ukraine's economy. He said: "In 2023, despite living with nearly a fifth of the country occupied by Russian forces and with your cities and industries under relentless bombardment, Ukraine's GDP grew by 5 per cent. Private investment increased by 17 per cent. State revenue rose by 25 per cent. In 2023, 37,000 new businesses were registered in Ukraine." He stated how the "robust economy" of Ukraine would help, in turn, increase revenue and boost the hardening of its defences. He also vouched for Ukraine's EU membership to help it access the single market, enabling 'free movement of goods, capital, services, workers, and people – to mutual benefit.' Lastly, he assured Ukraine of continuing its path towards rapid defence industrial base development, producing advanced weapons faster along with a strengthened economy and a consolidated democracy. 

THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Peru: Activists protest against decree describing seven gender identities as "mental illness"
On 17 May, sexual diversity activists protested in front of the health ministry in Peru's capital city, Lima and the Peruvian Embassy in Quito, Ecuador, calling on the government to repeal a decree characterizing seven gender identities as "mental illnesses." 17 May was also the International Day Against Homophobia. This decree was introduced last week by the administration of Peru's President Dina Boluarte, with the Ministry of Health explaining that this action would guarantee "comprehensive mental health care coverage" to individuals associated with public, private, or mixed health plans. Protestors carried signs inscribed with messages such as "My life is freedom, not a disorder." A transgender woman and writer, Gia Cruzado, said that the "decree is a step backwards and is a way to continue closing the doors to progress for our community." In Ecuador, dozens of protestors staged a sit-in outside Peru's embassy, waving flags and signs saying, "being trans is not a disease."

Argentina: President Milei criticizes Spanish socialist government while praising far-right opposition
On 17 May, before kicking off a three-day visit to Madrid, Argentina's President Javier Milei stirred controversy by accusing the Spanish socialist government of bringing "poverty and death" to the country and speaking on corruption allegations against the prime minister's wife. Milei, a far-right libertarian, does not intend to meet any Spanish officials, including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, during his visit; instead, he will attend a far-right summit hosted by Sanchez's political opponent, the Vox party. On the same day, Milei participated in a literary event organized by the Spanish newspaper La Razón, where he presented his book 'The Way of the Libertarian.' During his presentation, he condemned socialism as an "intellectual fraud and a horror in human terms."

The US: Agencies warn of potential attacks during Pride Month in June
On 17 May, the US State Department issued a warning to US citizens abroad to "exercise increased caution" and to stay "alert in locations frequented by tourists, including Pride celebrations," saying that foreign terror organizations may target LGBT events globally during Pride Month in June. Earlier last week, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a similar warning, saying: "Foreign terrorist organizations or supporters may seek to exploit increased gatherings associated with the upcoming June 2024 Pride Month." These agencies pointed out that messages distributed in February 2023 by the Islamic State (IS) group included rhetoric against LGBTQI+ events and venues. In June 2016, a man inspired by IS ideology shot dead 49 people and injured 53 at Pulse, a gay nightclub in Florida. Similarly, three IS sympathizers had been arrested for attempting to attack a Pride parade in Austria in 2023. The Chief Executive of the Counter Extremist Project, Mark D Wallace, noted that it is "no surprise that neo-Nazis and jihadis often express mutual admiration for their shared anti-gay visions."

The US: Washington is interested in ensuring a "credible election" in Venezuela
On 17 May, a US official said that the US sees it as a "very open question" whether Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro could be re-elected if he holds free polls in July, with the US trying to ensure a credible ballot in light of significant obstacles. The administration of US President Joe Biden has been engaging with Venezuelan "stakeholders" and regional and European partners to keep the electoral process on track. Maduro is set to go against veteran ex-diplomat and main opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez after the Supreme Court upheld a ban on previous opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado. Earlier last month, the US reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela after accusing Maduro of not complying with deals made earlier to ensure free and fair elections. The US official added: "The prospect for a free and fair election or even a minimally credible election remains one that we are very interested in seeking to advance, but we recognize also there are significant obstacles."

Newsmakers This Week

Slovakia: Assassination Attempt on Prime minister triggers accusation of police and bodyguards
Padmashree Anandhan

On 15 May, The Slovak Spectator reported on the shooting of Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico in Handlová. Fico suffered an injury in the abdomen which is currently observed as “life threatening.” Following this, the police had arrested the suspect who is identified to be a amateur poet and according to a Hungarian investigate the suspect is associated with a pro-Russian paramilitary group. World leaders such as European Commission President, Ursula Von Der Leyen, responded: “Such acts of violence have no place in our society and undermine democracy, our most precious common good.” Apart from this, Putin and leaders from Hungary and Czech Republic also condemned the attacks. On 16 May 2024, Slovakia’s President Peter Pellegrini visited Fico. According to the statements of Pellegrini, Fico was unable to speak properly and was tired. His condition continues to remain critical due to the complicated nature of wounds although the doctors are managing to stabilize it. The 71-year-old man who was the suspected shooter was found to be a ‘lone wolf’ with no membership in any radical or militant group. According to the authorities, the attack had a clear political motive. The former Prime Minister, Eduard Heger who is also the political rival of Fico had condemned the attack warning against polarization that is becoming a “battle of people” across the world. 

Who is Robert Fico?
Robert Fico, who had played a very important role in Slovakian politics since 1993 independence has served as a prime minister longer than anyone else. The country gained independence after the Velvet Revolution, it was a series of popular and non-violent protests the Communist party when the country was still Czechoslovakia. Fico had been a communist party member and later founded Smer party in late 1990s. He began his first three terms as a Prime Minister in 2006 and served for four years before going into opposition after his coalition lost the election. The Smer party which started out as political left has but has embraced right- wing views in terms of Immigration and cultural issues. 

Most of the international discussion of Fico leadership in recent years has focused on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and the Viktor Orban Prime minister of Hungary. The police and bodyguards have been blamed for failing to protect along with journalist and the opposition for attempting the assassination. According to the report, in 2018 an investigative journalist and his fiancée were killed when investigation on corruption began to lead to higher officials. This led to Fico facing criminal charges in 2022 and was demanded to resign in 2018 after mass protests upon the killing. This led to protests, largest since the Velvet Revolution; where the demonstrators demanded resignation and a new election. Fico had overseen the fact that the nation ranks the highest in terms of press freedom. He returned to power in an election in 2024, forming a coalition government securing around 23 per cent votes. He had campaigned against sanctions that were imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Slovakia's military contributions towards Ukraine were small compared to other nations like the US and the UK.

About the Authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS. Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, and Akhil Ajith are Research Assistants at NIAS. Neha Tresa George is a Research Intern at NIAS. Lakshmi Karlekar is a PhD scholar at Christ (Deemed to be University).

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