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CWA # 1447, 19 August 2024
The World This Week
China, Southeast Asia and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation

  GP Team

The World This Week #275, Vol. 6 No. 29, 17 August 2024
 

Femy Francis

China, Southeast Asia and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation
Femy Francis

What happened?
On 16 August, the 9th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) ministers meeting was held in Thailand focusing on “Towards the Shared Future of a Safer and Sustainable Mekong-Lancang Region”. The ministers from Laos, Myanmar, China, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand attended the meeting. The assembly was co-chaired by Thailand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Maris Sangiampongsa and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. 

The 9th LMC reviewed plans for future cooperation and affirmed collaboration on countering and combating transborder crimes that include illegal drug trafficking, cybercrimes, and telecommunication fraud. During the meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed four points for the LMC countries future cooperation. These included: “Focusing on peace and stability in the region where they uphold a common vision, development based on innovation and bridging the digital divide, furthering their interconnectedness and enhancing their growth momentum and lastly to focus on people-to-people exchanges while creating.” After the meeting, they released a progress report of their collaboration in 2023 and the plan for the coming five years. The report outlined LMC-funded special projects, think tanks' observations on the region’s common aspiration, and their agricultural action plan. 

What is the background?
First, the background of Lancang-Mekong Cooperation. The LMC is a sub-regional organisation established in 2016 by Thailand in collaboration with China. The group consists of riparian states that are situated along the Lancang River and Mekong River making China, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand part of the cooperation. The main aim of this cooperation was to manage the water flow from higher to lower riparian countries. Since its inception, the countries have collaborated on specially funded projects like the China-Laos and China-Thailand railway project, the Bumper Harvest project, Green Lancang-Mekong Initiative. 

Second, hydropower power dams in the LMC region. The LMC was established to address the inequitable use of the river’s waters, particularly regarding upstream and downstream water users. This has led to the establishment of several Hydro dam projects mostly dominated by China in the region. China controls the headwaters and is the largest financer for energy projects in the region. It is estimated that there 608 and 34 projects are under construction. The main mega 11 dams are operated by China. Laos to become the “battery of Southeast Asia,” has also heavily invested in the dam projects. Currently, it has two dams operating and seven more scheduled in the region. 

Third, motivations for collaboration. Countries around the river basin have multifaceted interests in the region. For China being the largest financier, the meeting is an investment opportunity to expand its project. With Myanmar in political turmoil and the civil conflict aggravating, China is concerned about the spillover of the conflict to its boundaries. Cambodia and Vietnam also plan to discuss the disagreement over the China-funded canal project that bypasses Hanoi. For Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, the LMC meeting stands crucial as they are the lower basin countries, the most affected by changes in the river basin. 

What does it mean? 
First, hydropower diplomacy. The burgeoning of hydropower dams in the region can lead to water-sharing politics. The issue is aggravated by the undisputed power the upper-stream countries hold over the lower-stream countries. In the Lancang-Mekong River basin, China being the upper riparian holds the most influence than Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, in that order. Myanmar, currently under political turmoil, has not been able to exploit the basin, but Laos has started to invest heavily in hydropower projects. Thailand has expressed its concerns complaining that the dams built upstream have reduced fishes in their region.

Second, LMC's gateway to economic and political cooperation. The Lancang-Mekong River basin is one of the world’s largest river basins, and the countries surrounding the river basin are interested in economic collaboration. China, being the largest financer in the region, would like to invest in projects; this stands to be mutually beneficial for countries with lower to middle economies like Vietnam. Thailand, being the second largest Southeast Asian economy, is an attractive market to invest in. Economic collaborations also influence political alliances on the international stage. LMC collaboration is a gateway especially for China to establish ties in the Southeast Asian region. 

Third, environmental repercussions. The benefits of hydropower plants and dams have led to countries building dams. This excessive hydropower dam infrastructure has had environmental repercussions in the region. According to the US-based Stimson Center, the hydropower dams in the basin are altering the river’s natural flow. The Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental body working for the lower basin countries of Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam with China and Myanmar has done nothing to address the issue. Even MRC’s reports have found damaging evidence it has no regulatory power to prevent the construction. 

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Samrudhi Pathak, Sachin Aravind, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Neha Tresa George and Advik S Mohan

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Launches international deep-sea expedition in the Western Pacific Ocean
On 11 August, a Chinese research vessel Shenhai Yihao set off on a 45-day scientific mission to the Western Pacific Ocean with the manned submersible Jiaolong onboard. This expedition forms part of the 2024 Western Pacific International Voyage where 18 dives are planned to explore seamount ecosystems. Scientists are expected to collect organisms from the deep-sea environment, seawater and sediments to gain more knowledge about these unique places. Minister of Natural Resources Tang Dongmei stated that this mission was China’s first international voyage under its Digital Deep-sea Typical Habitats Program which had received support from 39 countries. The expedition team consists of researchers from countries like Canada, Spain and Colombia.

China: Foreign Minister calls for collaboration with ASEAN
On 13 August, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi called on China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to work on coordinated development. He made the remarks in a congratulatory letter to the ASEAN-China Week 2024 and stated progress made in establishing a China-ASEAN community. He also celebrated the growth of mutual respect and understanding between the region’s people and called to find new areas to expand ties. 

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
North Korea: To consolidate ties with Russia
On 16 August, The Korea Times reported that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un pledged to continue cooperation with Russia. Kim’s pledge was in response to a congratulatory message from the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, on National Liberation Day of Korea, commemorating Korean liberation from Japanese rule. Kim stated: “The friendly feelings of the armies and peoples of the two countries forged and deepened in the bloody struggle against the common enemy serve as a strong driving force for developing.” He added that the comprehensive strategic partnership marked their “invincible comradeship.”

South Korea: To reconsider two controversial bills
On 13 August, The Korea Times reported that the National Assembly of South Korea demanded to reconsider two contentious bills aimed at enhancing the rights of workers. The cabinet meeting approved the motion demanding parliamentary reconsideration which will be sent to President Yoon Suk Yeol for endorsement and expected to approve the motion. On 12 August 2024, Yoon also vetoed four opposition-led bills aiming to change the governance structure of public broadcasters, apparently slammed by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). The DPK’s Floor Leader Rep. Park Chan-dae said: “This is the worst record since democratisation.” 

South Korea: Chips and automobiles account for 30 per cent of exports
On 12 August, The Korea Times reported that semiconductors and automobiles account for a record 31.7 per cent of South Korea’s total exports. According to the data from the Korea International Trade Association, semiconductors accounted for 20.3 per cent of the country’s outbound shipments and automobiles at 11.4 per cent. Combined, chips and cars accounted for 31.7 per cent of total exports, marking the highest contribution ever. Korea’s leading chip suppliers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix had heavy income. Automobiles showed a stable rise in the second quarter, in monetary terms rising to a quarterly record of USD 19.5 billion in the second quarter.

Australia: AUKUS to boost security
On 16 August, Reuters reported that the leaders of Australia and New Zealand claimed that Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS) defence pact would improve regional security and stability. Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, and Prime Minister of New Zealand, Christopher Luxon issued a joint statement that both nations would collaborate for mutual security and prosperity. While New Zealand is not a part of AUKUS, it has been attempting to collaborate on “pillar two” of the pact, which focuses on shared military technology. Albanese said: “We share very much common values and we share common objectives, and it is not surprising we will look at any opportunity for including New Zealand in pillar two.” Luxon also confirmed that New Zealand would maintain close security ties with Australia.

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Thailand: Paetongtarn Shinawatra becomes the youngest Prime Minister 
On 16 August, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, gained 319 votes, representing nearly two-thirds of the House of Representatives. She will be Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister at 37 and hopes to secure confidence in the house. She replaced Srettha Thavisin who was suspended from his post by the Constitutional Court of Thailand over the wrong appointment of a Cabinet minister. She promises to bring confidence among Thais and empower them. Her appointment came amidst political uncertainties in Thailand.

Indonesia: President Probowo Subianto secures parliamentary majority
On 16 August, Indonesia’s elected President Prabowo Subianto attained a parliamentary majority after his rival party confirmed to join his coalition. The NasDem Party’s decision to join Probowo would boost his support from 43 to 52 per cent. The party’s chief Surya Paloh said the decision would incorporate a “calmer and more optimistic” atmosphere within the government.

Pakistan: Celebrates 77 years of independence
On 14 August, Pakistan celebrated 77 years of its independence. During the flag-hoisting ceremony on the 77th Independence Day of Pakistan, President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed to bring about economic stability in the country.  Sharif wrote on X, “Our unwavering commitment to Pakistan’s progress and prosperity on Independence Day 2024: reforms and continuous struggle, we will beautify tomorrow’s Pakistan.” He further remarked that he would work hard and bring down the inflation and electricity prices. He promised new power bills soon and a launch of a five-year economic programme. Following the flag hoist ceremony in Islamabad, he paid tributes to the “sacrifices to the forefathers and countless unsung heroes of the Pakistan Movement.” He along with Zardari reaffirmed Pakistan’s political, moral, and diplomatic support to the Jammu and Kashmir people. 

Pakistan: Federal Cabinet approves privatisation programme
On 16 August, The News International reported that a privatisation programme had been approved by the federal cabinet. The programme is for a period of five years beginning from 2024-2029. Under the programme, 24 institutions will be privatised in three phases. Nine Power Distribution Companies (Discos) will be privatised in the cities of Islamabad, Gujranwala and Faisalabad will be privatised in the first phase. Electric supply companies in Peshawar, Hazara, Sukkur, Multan, Lahore and Hyderabad will be privatised in the second phase. The cabinet has ordered an extensive and comprehensive schedule to be reviewed by the federal cabinet which includes a list of financial advisers to be appointed, including other requirements.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK 
Israel: Gaza reports first polio case, UN calls for “polio pause”
On 16 August, according to Al Jazeera, the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza recorded the first case of polio in the region. The victim was a ten-month-old infant from Deir el-Balah. On the same day, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a humanitarian pause, which he termed a “polio pause,” in the war to launch a vaccination campaign. According to the World Health Organisation, vaccinations would be administered during August and September but would not prove successful without Israel and Hamas’ cooperation. 

Saudi Arabia: Chinese firm signs power plant contract
On 14 August, according to Middle East Monitor, China Energy Engineering Corp signed a USD 972 million contract to build a solar power plant in Saudi Arabia. The 2-gigawatt plant would be built in a joint venture with multiple Saudi firms, including the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, ACWA Power, and Saudi Aramco Power Company. The deal was part of a larger trend of growing Chinese presence in The Islamic Kingdom’s renewable energy sector. 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Africa: UN Secretary-General calls for Africa's permanent membership in the UNSC
On 13 August, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for Africa's permanent seat in the UN. He stated: “We cannot accept that the world’s preeminent peace and security body lacks a permanent voice for a continent of well over a billion people - a young and rapidly growing population - making up 28% of the membership of the United Nations." His calls were reiterated by the UN officials including the President of the UN General Assembly Dennis Francis. The debate was convened by Sierra Leone's President Julius Maada Bio. He stated: "The time for half-measures and incremental progress is over. Africa must be heard, and its demands for justice and equity must be met."

Senegal: Prime Minister visits Mali with a bid to reunite ECOWAS
On 13 August, Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko visited Mali with a bid to return the latter to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This is his first visit after his party came to power in March 2024. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso left ECOWAS after the military coups soured the relationship with the bloc. Following the visit, Sonko stated that the West African countries shall recreate "a Malian empire that stretched from here to Senegal, Ghana and everywhere in between."

Rwanda: Paul Kagame sworn in as the President
On 11 August, Paul Kagame was sworn in for his fourth term as Rwanda’s President. He secured 99 per cent of the votes during the July elections. Around 45,000 people attended the swearing-in ceremony. While Kagame and his party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), are praised for bringing peace and stability following the 1994 genocide, his critics accuse him of ruling the country through repression. Additionally, Kagame is accused of destabilising the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

EUROPE AND THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK 
Finland: Highest unemployment rates in the EU
On 13 August, a report published by Statistics Finland highlighted the dire unemployment scenario. The figures show Finland’s unemployment rate at 8.4 per cent, the third-highest in the EU. However, the top two countries, namely Spain and Greece have seen their employment figures improve in the past one year. Meanwhile, Finland has declined even more, with little hope for respite. Senior Financial Advisor at the Finnish Ministry of Finance Janne Huovari said that the rate could increase with the government’s austerity measures. Governmental reforms geared at improving employment such as cuts to housing allowance and staggering of earnings-related unemployment benefits may increase unemployment if there is no demand for labour, according to her. She added that This had made the government's aim of creating 100,000 new jobs difficult and challenging.  Huovari also believes that rising interest rates have negatively impacted the Finnish economy since variable rates are more common in the country for housing and corporate loans. 

Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank reports increase in Chinese direct investments
On 14 August, Germany’s central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, reported an increase in  direct investments into China. The Bundesbank data showed German investments in China in the first quarter to be EUR 2.48 billion, rising to EUR 4.8 billion in the second quarter. The total in the first half of 2024 stands at EUR 7.3 billion, higher than the investments total for the entirety of 2023. 

Russia: Negotiates the exchange of prisoners with Ukraine
On 16 August, The Moscow Times reported that Russia and Ukraine were negotiating on the exchange of prisoners who were captured during the Kursk attack. According to Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, a “proactive conversation “ was held on the issue with the Russian spokesperson, Tatiana Moskalkova. He said that Kyiv was ready for an exchange based on the “Geneva Convention at any time” but condemned Moscow for delaying it, which Moskalkova denied.

Venezuela: Opposition calls for global protests against Maduro's election victory
On 12 August, Venezuela's opposition coalition called worldwide protests later that week, in a bid to claim their election victory. The electoral commission declared President Nicolás Maduro the winner, securing him a consecutive third term in office. However, the opposition claimed that its candidate, Edmundo González, was the real winner. They demanded the release of detailed poll results. The US, the EU and several Latin American countries have supported the opposition's claims and held off from acknowledging Maduro's victory.

About the Authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Samruddi Pathak and Advik S Mohan are  a Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.
 

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