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CWA # 1534, 4 November 2024
The World This Week
North Korean Troops in Russia, Finland President's Visit to China and Elections in Japan

  GP Team

The World This Week #284, Vol. 6 No. 38, 03 November 2024
 

Kavithashri M, Advik S Mohan and Sayeka Ghosh

North Korean Troops in Russia
Kavitashri M

What happened?
On 27 October 2024, reports from The Washington Post said that "North Korea had deployed troops to Russia." US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had also confirmed that North Korean troops were in Russia and would be 'legitimate targets' in Ukraine. Speaking to reporters, White House spokesperson John Kirby said the United States believes at least 3,000 North Korean troops are undergoing training at three military bases in eastern Russia.

On 28 October 2024, the Washington Times and Radio Free Europe reported that NATO acknowledged the presence of thousands of North Korean military personnel in Russia. 

What is the background?
First, a brief note on Russia-North Korea relations. The two have shared a long-standing partnership since the Cold War era. Both have occasionally collaborated on economic and security matters, but recent diplomatic isolation has drawn them closer. Russia's sanctions from Western countries and the escalation of its conflict with Ukraine have led to an increased alignment with isolated states like North Korea.

Second, recent agreements between Russia and North Korea. They include a security pact and pledges for military support. Russia's deployment of North Korean troops is driven by its need for manpower in Ukraine amidst high casualties and resource strain while avoiding further domestic mobilization. North Korea benefits from strengthening its alliance with Russia and receiving potential economic support and diplomatic leverage against Western sanctions. 

What does it mean?
First, the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia could add a layer of complexity to any Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The presence of North Korean troops might reinforce calls for robust support from NATO, as it suggests Russia is expanding its international alliances. Additionally, North Korea's involvement could deter diplomatic progress, as it introduces a third-party interest into the conflict, one likely resistant to Western diplomatic pressures. This will complicate future peace talks, as North Korea may indirectly influence Russia's negotiating stance, especially if North Korean forces sustain significant involvement near the front lines. 

Second, the North Korean troops in Russia reflect a strategic alliance built on shared benefits and survival. For Russia, North Korea offers manpower and a partner unburdened by international alliances, allowing Moscow to sidestep Western constraints and showcase its resilience through non-traditional allies. North Korea, meanwhile, gains a foothold in Russia's defence network, potentially increasing its access to advanced weaponry, military training, and technology, which could be critical for its national security and regional ambitions.

Finally, the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia redefines East Asian security by emboldening Pyongyang, potentially increasing military provocations and destabilizing regional dynamics. This shift may compel neighbouring countries, like South Korea and Japan, to enhance their defence capabilities and strengthen alliances with the US, escalating regional tensions and militarization.

Finland President's Visit to China
Advik S Mohan

What happened?
On 27 October, the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, began a state visit to China. Stubb informed through a tweet on X that the visit provided an opportunity to discuss key international and security issues and present Finland's foreign and security policy to China."

On 29 October, President Stubb met President Xi Jinping. Xi described the relationship between China and Finland as a future-oriented, new-type cooperative partnership with exceptional value. He also encouraged greater cooperation between Finland and China in green transformation, information technology, artificial intelligence, and other emerging industries. Additionally, Xi stated that Finland would be included in the list of unilateral visa-free countries to promote people-to-people exchanges. Xi also said China would continue working towards a diplomatic resolution for the Ukraine war. 

President Stubb informed that the closer China grew with Russia, the more difficult the relationship between China and the EU would become. He also stated that measures promoting trade protectionism, like tariffs, were only short-term measures detrimental to the national and global economies. During their meeting, Stubb and Xi issued the Joint Action Plan between China and Finland on Promoting the Future-oriented New-type Cooperative Partnership. The Partnership focuses on various areas such as sustainable growth, science and technology, low-carbon development, and education. 

Stubb also met the Premier of China, Li Qiang, wherein both sides committed to expanding cooperation. Additionally, Stubb attended the China-Finland Business Summit, which had over 80 entrepreneurs and business leaders from China and Finland attending. The Summit focused on green energy and tourism as areas of cooperation. Additionally, he visited the Fudan University in Shanghai. At Fudan University, Stubb interacted on global affairs with faculty and students, including Finnish exchange students.

What is the background?
First, the bilateral ties between China and Finland. Finland was one of the first Western states to recognize communist China in 1950 and the first Western country to sign a trade agreement with China back in 1973. The two signed a free trade investment agreement in 2004. While there have been tensions between the two countries, such as Finland's criticism of the 2020 Hong Kong security law and a dispute over a Chinese-led security breach of the Finnish parliament, the two countries have maintained cordial relations with regular ministerial visits. Finland abstained from joining tariffs imposed against Chinese EV imports by the EU earlier this year. 

Second, economic cooperation. In 2017, during the visit by Xi to Finland, the two countries agreed to a future-oriented New-type Cooperative Partnership. China is Finland's fifth-largest export partner and the largest in Asia. Wood pulp, paper products, electronics, and electrical equipment are responsible for the majority of Finnish exports to China. Companies from both countries have also been involved in investment projects in each other. For instance, Finnish phone conglomerate Nokia has been involved in setting up telecommunications networks and infrastructure like 5G across China. Similarly, Finnish marine and energy equipment firm Wartsila collaborated with local Chinese firms on sustainable technologies.  Joint economic initiatives like the Finnish-China Green Industry Park Forum and the China-Finland Innovation Enterprise Committee have promoted common knowledge sharing and development.

Third, the security issues. The war in Ukraine has seen Finland and China take contrasting stances. Finland shares a border with Russia and shunned its traditional position of neutrality to join the NATO bloc after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has also played a proactive role in providing humanitarian assistance for Ukraine. In contrast, while China has called for peace in the war, it has maintained close ties with Russia. 

Fourth, the China-EU tensions. The visit by Stubb comes amidst increasingly fractious ties between China and the EU. In the past few months, the EU has imposed tariffs on the imports of Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) due to allegations of China flooding EU markets with cheap goods. However, there is a divide over ties with China among the EU. Member states like Germany and Hungary have tried maintaining cordial relations with China, while other countries like the Czech Republic have criticized China's perceived policies. In this scenario, the visit of a senior EU leader like Stubb for high-level exchanges with the Chinese leadership is significant. Finland has maintained cordial ties with China, following a nuanced stance. The visit by Stubb further shows the prioritizing of economic ties over political ones.

What does it mean?
The visit of Stubb saw an expansion of economic ties between China and Finland. The new Joint Action Plan agreed between the two countries prioritizes cooperation across diverse areas like sustainable growth, energy transition, education, science and technology, and sports. Additionally, the Plan prioritizes holding regular meetings, such as the Joint Economic Committee meetings and cooperation on issues like disarmament, human rights, and climate change. The Plan promises to review the progress made in 2027. Ties between China and Finland are likely to continue to progress. Both countries view benefits in cordial ties. For Finland, China is a crucial economic partner. On the other hand, China gains from Finland's presence as a friendly country amidst worsening ties with the EU. It also shows Beijing's desire to maintain cordial relations with the European bloc and not lose its advantages in a trade war.

LDP loses majority in the House of Representatives elections
Sayeka Ghosh

What happened?
On 27 October, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito, in a coalition, were defeated in Japan's recently held election of the House of Representatives. They secured only 215 seats, 191 from the LDP, while Komeito acquired 24 of the 465 members. For the first time since 2009, the ruling coalition lost its majority. The major beneficiary of the elections was the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose seats moved up from 98 to 148. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) had made four times more seats and moved up to 28. The Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) secured 38 seats. The turnout was meagre at 53.85 per cent, the third-lowest participation rate in post-war Japan.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost 56 seats. Its coalition partner, Komeito, also suffered losses, dropping from 32 to 24, including the defeat of its newly appointed leader, Ishii Keiichi. The CDP increased its seats from 98 to 148, becoming the biggest opposition force since 2012. 

What is the background?
First, the Ishiba and the crisis within the LDP. The party chose Ishiba as its leader to regain people's trust after the scandals. The elections were marked by controversy due to its connection with slush funds and also being associated with the Unification Church, which led to the expelling of then-Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. Shigeru Ishiba became the president of the LDP and was also voted in as prime minister in September 2024. The LDP had tactically picked Ishiba as the party leader to reduce electoral damage. Ishiba was an outsider in the party and was seen as having clean hands; hence, he could reform the party from within. His call for a snap election months after his appointment was an effort to get a public mandate and ride on the "honeymoon period." The strategy, however, went wrong as his approvals stayed in the 40 per cent range.

Second, the LDP's dominance in Japanese politics. This election mattered because the LDP had a long tradition of dominance in Japanese politics. With the party holding 276 seats of the House of Representatives comfortably before that election, the party could run almost unopposed legislative proceedings and let the party's policy agenda face minimal interference by the opposition. 

What does it mean?
First, challenges to internal political stability. Since the LDP-Komeito coalition does not hold a majority, legislation may not pass, and it would be hard for it to enforce its policy agenda. The situation is serious because Japan has a parliamentary system where the lower house of parliament is considered the principal organ in selecting the prime minister and passing budgets. The election results pose a short-term and long-term challenge to Prime Minister Ishiba. He has 30 days to muster enough support for building a functional government within the constitutional deadline. 

Second, LDP's future. Ishiba has to balance party consolidation and reforms within the party. This would become difficult because the rigid right wing of the party, which is part of the old Abe wing, would likely oppose more thoroughgoing reforms, which could spur a party fight. The biggest election for the upper house will be in July 2025. That will be an important test of how well the LDP can recover from this defeat based on the effective implementation of economic policies and responses to public dissatisfaction with political corruption and other reasons that continue to eat into support among younger voters.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Sachin Aravind, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Neha Tresa George, Abhiruchi Chowdhary, Sachin Aravindan and Advik S Mohan

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Brazil decides not to join BRI 
On 29 October, SCMP reported that Brazil decided not to join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Special Advisor for International Affairs to the President of Brazil, Celso Amorim, informed that the country is seeking alternative methods for collaborating with Chinese investors. Amorim added that the aim was to use the BRI framework to find synergy between Brazilian infrastructure projects and associated investment funds, without formally joining the BRI. The Brazilian government believes that joining the BRI will not bring any tangible benefits and that BRI membership would make relations with the US difficult if Donald Trump returns to the presidency.

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Samoa: CHOGM promotes Climate Action and Ocean Resilience
On 29 October, RNZ reported on the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa. During the meeting, climate change was discussed resonating with the Pacific members for COP31 in 2026. Tuvalu, Fiji and Vanuatu announced the launch of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative report, focusing on Australia’s coal and gas mining. All 56 members highlighted the importance of climate finance and the needs of developing countries. Additionally, the meeting put forth the Apia Commonwealth Ocean Declaration, focusing on One Resilient Common Future. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Myanmar: The UK, the EU and Canada impose sanctions on six entities
On 29 October, the UK, the EU and Canada imposed financial sanctions on Myanmar. It targeted six entities providing aviation fuel and restricted goods including aircraft parts to Myanmar’s military. According to the UK’s Minister for the Indo-Pacific region, Catherine West, the sanctions were a response to the increasing human rights violations and air strikes by the Myanmar military against civilians. Myanmar has not responded to these measures.

Myanmar: China’s ambassador’s visit; discusses cooperation, peace and stability
On 28 October, The Irrawaddy reported on the meeting between the Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar Ma Jia and the Myanmar military officer Soe Win. The visit came amidst Myanmar’s large-scale attacks near China’s border. They discussed the prospects of cooperation between the countries’ militaries in the fields of technology and information. They talked about peace and stability, besides internal peace in Myanmar. Ma met with the Myanmar Minister of Information Maung Maung Ohn to discuss enhancing media collaboration.

India: Troop disengagement completed along contention points in Eastern Ladakh 
On 30 October, the Hindu quoted Indian Army sources confirming that India and China completed disengagement in Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh. It also marks disengagement from all contention points after the clashes in 2020. The agreement revives patrolling rights at points 10 to 13 in Depsang Plains. Chinese forces had earlier denied Indian access to these points. According to the reports, about 40 per cent of temporary structures have been removed, with expectations of 60 per cent clearance in the next four days. This comes after a general framework agreement at the diplomatic level and a detailed agreement at the Corps Commanders level was concluded on 27 October ahead of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit.

Pakistan: To receive USD 2.75 billion from ADB over the next four years
On 28 October, The News International reported that the International Monetary Fund’s commitment to a USD seven billion loan has facilitated Pakistan’s ease of borrowing from other international institutions. It is expected that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will provide Pakistan with a total of USD 2.75 billion in the next four years. The first USD 800 million would arrive in the current fiscal year. During the 2025-26 fiscal year, Pakistan is likely to receive USD 650 million from ADB.

Pakistan: Extends parliamentary cooperation with Russia
On 28 October, Pakistan’s Senate Chairman Yousuf Raza Gilani and the Speaker of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of Russia Valentina Matvienko signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to extend parliamentary cooperation. Gilani stated: “We are confident that this visit’s outcome will pave the way for a stronger, more meaningful inter-parliamentary and bilateral partnership between Pakistan and the Russian Federation in the years ahead.” Both countries agreed to collaborate in the areas of trade, commerce, agriculture, energy, and investment. Additionally, they emphasized diversifying their cooperation in trade and economics instead of focusing on enhancing commercial ties and regional connectivity. 

Pakistan: Bilateral cooperation with Russia in security matters
On 30 October, The News International reported that Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defence Timur Ivanov met Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir at the Pakistan General’s Headquarters. They discussed issues of common interests and the situation of regional security. Separately, Ivanov met Pakistan’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Naveed Ashraf and Chief of Air Staff Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu to discuss maritime security. The Naval Chief of Pakistan expressed the country’s wish to establish an all-round long-drawn partnership with Russia. The discussion looked at coordinating bilateral naval exercises. The Ministry of Defence of Pakistan hosted the fifth Pakistan-Russia Joint Military Consultative Committee, where countries discussed extending their areas of cooperation. 

Pakistan: Seeks additional Chinese funding upon Premier’s visit
On 27 October, Pakistan’s Minister of Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb requested an additional currency swap arrangement of USD 1.4 billion from China. This is after Pakistan used up an available USD 4.3 billion facility that China offered to extend for three years. The request came during the four-day visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Pakistan. This is the first time a Chinese Premier has been to Pakistan in 11 years. They discussed strengthening economic cooperation and acceleration of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects.

Bangladesh: BNP leaders to attend a “Political Party Plus” cooperation event in Beijing
On 31 October, the Dhaka Tribune reported that a four-member delegation from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) accepted the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) invitation to visit China. The Bangladeshi party is set to attend a "Political Party Plus" cooperation event in Beijing. It aims to strengthen bilateral ties and address common issues, with a vision of nurturing regional cooperation. The event will take place between 7 and 16 November. Representatives from Southeast Asia and East Asian countries will congregate.
 
Bangladesh: India’s Adani Power Ltd warns of cutting power
On 31 October, Dhaka Tribune reported that Adani Power Ltd, an Indian-based corporation, warned the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) that the power supply would be halted if payments were not cleared by 30 October. Currently, the Adani power plant supplies 1,600 megawatts of electricity to Bangladesh. The Adani Power Ltd representative, Krishna Rao, stated that neither had the BPDP provided a letter of credit worth USD 170.03 million nor had it discharged its USD 846 million dues.

Nepal: Chinese firm to print currency
On 31 October, the Times of India reported that the Nepal Rastra Bank signed an agreement with the Chinese firm, China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation, to print new 100-rupee banknotes, consisting of an altered map of Nepal. The map consists of Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh, and Kalapani, regions disputed with India. In 2020, the Nepalese constitution was amended to include these disputed regions. As per the agreement, the firm is tasked with designing, printing, supplying, and delivering 300 million units worth USD 8.99 million. 

Sri Lanka: MoU with Russia to counter illegal trade
On 31 October, Daily Mirror reported that the Sri Lankan customs and its Russian counterpart signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) against illegal trade between the two. The agreement highlights cooperation in strengthening legal trade facilities.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: Knesset passes laws restricting UNRWA operations
On 28 October, Al Jazeera reported that Israel’s Knesset passed two laws restricting the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) operations in the country. During the first session of the Knesset’s winter session, Members of the Knesset (MKs) approved a law banning UNRWA from operating within Israel’s internationally recognised borders and another restricting the UN agency to the West Bank and Gaza Strip by banning Israeli state institutions from contacting UNRWA. The Benjamin Netanyahu government has justified these moves, claiming that the UN agency’s local employees participated in the 7 October 2023 attacks. UNRWA Commissioner-General Philipe Lazzarini criticised the laws for setting “a dangerous precedent,” violating the UN Charter and Israel’s obligations under international law. He referred to this as an attempt to “discredit UNRWA and delegitimize its role towards providing human development assistance and services to Palestine Refugees.” The controversial laws, Lazzarini stated, would “deprive over 650,000 girls and boys there from education, putting at risk an entire generation of children” and amount to “collective punishment.” 

The UAE: Government extends visa amnesty until December 31
On 31 October, Gulf News reported that the UAE Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs and Port Security (ICP) extended the visa amnesty deadline from 31 October to 31 December. The amnesty policy, which started on 1 September and was previously scheduled to end on 31 October, waived overstay fines for individuals living in the UAE on expired or cancelled visas and allowed them to either exit the country without facing penalties or secure employment in the country by legalising their status. According to the Director General of the ICP, Major General Suhail Saeed Al Khaili, the decision to extend the amnesty was because of the massive number of applicants during the last days of the 31 October deadline and reflected the country’s humanitarian values.  

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Kenya: High Court approves new Deputy President
On 31 October, a three-judge High Court in Nairobi ruled in favour of the swearing-in of the new Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was removed after the impeachment vote on 17 October. He was accused of corruption, inciting ethnic divisions and supporting anti-government protests. Later, Kindiki was nominated by President William Ruto. Kindiki’s swearing-in was challenged in the court, arguing that the suspension created a political vacuum. 

Botswana: BDP loses election after 58 years
On 1 November, according to the BBC, the preliminary election results implied that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) had lost its parliamentary majority. President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat, with BDP securing three seats out of 61. Masisi commented: “We got it wrong big time in the eyes of the people. We were really convinced of our message. But every indication, by any measure, is that there’s no way that I can pretend that we’re going to form a government.” This will be a major political change for the country as the BDP has been in power since independence in 1966. The main opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) has secured 25 seats, leading the polls. The UDC’s Duma Boko is likely the candidate for president.

Morocco: France backs sovereignty claims over Western Sahara
On 29 October, French President Emmanuel Macron, during his visit to Morocco, supported Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara. The region on the north-western coast of Africa has been under dispute for decades between Morocco and the Polisario Front, a movement of indigenous Sahrawi community backed by Algeria. France has now joined Spain, the US and Israel in backing Morocco's claims. Macron said Morocco's claims were the "only basis" for a just political settlement. The visit ended with France and Morocco signing deals on energy and infrastructure, among other sectors, worth USD 10.8 billion, according to the AFP news. 

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Georgia: US President criticises election process 
On 30 October, Politico reported that US President Joe Biden criticised the conduct of the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia. Biden stated that the elections in Georgia were not free and fair as described by domestic and international observers. He urged the Government of Georgia to launch a transparent investigation into possible election violations. He informed that the government must begin an inclusive dialogue with all political forces in Georgia about restoring election integrity. 

The EU: Plans to impose duties on Chinese car manufacturers benefitting from subsidies
On 29 October, Politico reported that the EU plans to impose duties on unfairly subsidized Chinese car manufacturers. According to the EU, Electric Vehicles (EVs) manufacturers like BYD and SAIC received cash and discount benefits from China. The European Commission imposed duties on Chinese car manufacturers based on the subsidy level they benefitted from and their cooperation with the commission’s investigation. However, the duties are opposed by the car industry in countries like Germany, which fear a loss from the trade war.  Meanwhile, the Chinese government rejected the EU investigation findings and stated that no subsidies were offered.  

Spain: Prime Minister Sanchez inaugurates India’s first private military aircraft plant
On 28 October, Deutsche Welle reported on Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s visit to India. Sanchez and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated Tata Aircraft Complex, India’s first private military aircraft plant. It will produce the Airbus C-295 transport military aircraft in collaboration with Airbus Spain. Sanchez praised Modi’s vision "to turn India into an industrial powerhouse and a magnet for investment and business-to-business collaboration." Meanwhile, Modi said that the project would strengthen the relations between India and Spain along with the “Make in India and Made for the World” mission. This came amidst India’s increasing attempts to strengthen its “local defence and aerospace manufacturing capacities.” The Defence Ministry of India signed an agreement with Spain, amounting to USD 2.5 billion for 56 cargo and troops carrying C295 aircraft from Airbus Defence and Space. 

Ukraine: Summit with Nordic countries
On 28 October, the leaders of Nordic countries expressed their support during the Ukraine-Nordic summit. The Prime Ministers of Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden issued a joint statement with the President of Ukraine following the summit. In the statement, the leaders reaffirmed support for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of Ukraine. They informed their support for Ukraine was steadfast and would continue for as long as necessary. It further stated that the Nordic countries had promised to develop Ukraine’s defence industry and provide support for enhancing its defence capabilities. The statement reiterated the Nordic view that the place of Ukraine was in NATO.

The UK: Plans to increase taxes in the next budget
On 30 October, CNN reported that the UK’s Minister of Finance Rachel Reeves presented the budget, seeking to introduce measures for spiking the tax collection by GBP 41.5 billion by the end of 2030, making it 38 per cent of the country’s GDP. The government introduced measures to increase capital gains taxes and imposed duties on “inherited pensions.” It plans to impose taxes on people living in the UK but having permanent residency outside the country and thus manage to evade paying taxes. This would lead to an increase in tax collection by GBP 12.7 billion in the next five years. Further, taxes are set to increase on travel by private jet and income of salaried workers with small firms avoided from the category. 

About the Authors
Kavithashri M is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Samruddi Pathak, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Advik S Mohan, Abhiruchi Chowdhary and Sachin Aravindan are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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