GP Team 12 December 2024

Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Prajwal T V and Kavithasri M
The World This Week #287-289 Vol. 6 Nos. 41-43, 9 December 2024

Elections in Ireland: Continuity and Change
Abhiruchi Chowdhury

What happened?
On 29 November, Irish citizens came out to vote for forming their new government. The outgoing government coalition consisted of three political parties - Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party. Sinn Fein remained as the largest opposition party. It was already clear that the contesting parties would aim to form alliances after the elections as none of the them fought on enough number of seats to form government on their own. Out of the total 174 seats, Fianna Fáil won 48 seats, followed by Sinn Fein and Fine Gael which won 39 and 38 seats respectively. Green Party slipped from winning 12 seats in 2020 elections to retaining just one seat in 2024.

What is the background?
First, a brief recap of what happened in 2020 and 2016 elections. In 2020 elections, Fianna Fáil clinched maximum number of seats – 38. Sinn Fein and Fine Gael closely followed Fianna Fáil and won 37 seats and 35 seats respectively. The 2020 elections saw the resurrection of Sinn Fein which not only won the maximum number of first preference votes but also increased its share of votes by two times from 2016 elections. In 2016, Fine Gael won the maximum number of seats – 50. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Fein won 44 seats and 23 seats respectively.

Second, the dominance of three major political parties in Irish politics – Sinn Fein, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Sinn Fein has a history of being Irish Republic Army’s political wing. It is presently being spearheaded by the charismatic leadership of Mary Lou McDonald. Sinn Fein serves as a third left-leaning alternative to the centre-right parties- Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. In the present election campaign, it promised to work towards United Ireland. In 2020, for the first time, the two rival center-right leaning parties, Fine Gael  and Fianna Fáil, which have 100 years of history of contention, came together to form the government to keep Sinn Fein out of power. The two parties have remained at the center stage in government formation since formation of the republic.

Third, major electoral issues. Housing crisis and dire state of health care system are the two major concerns of Irish voters. Renting a house in the Republic of Ireland is extremely expensive. The average rent for an accommodation in Ireland roughly comes around to EUR 2000. The Economic and Social Research institute in July 2024 had predicted that Ireland would need to build 53,000 houses every year to shrink the gap between demand and supply. Hospitals in Ireland do not have enough beds to accommodate all those seeking medical treatment. There is a serious shortage in the numbers of emergency beds. There is a significant surge in number of young people suffering from mental health disorders. However, the mental health services in Ireland are overburdened, with patients having to wait for long durations.
 
What does it mean?
First, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to return to power. However, in addition to the 86 seats which they have, they still need two more seats to cross the threshold required to form the government. Their return to power means, there would be no containment of the surging rent in Ireland and it would rise to unprecedent levels, given their opposition to rent freeze and their soft corner towards landlords.

Second, with Green party losing its voice in the government, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have lost their punching bag whom they could accuse for rising fuel costs. In the absence of Green party from the government, pro-climate action policies would not receive much consideration in government decision making.

Third, it remains unlikely that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would be able to address and make significant changes to turnaround the present state of housing, health and cost of living crises given its past record and proposed policy measures. Though, Immigration was not among the top concerns of Irish voters, the blame for not being able to manage the issue of housing or health would be put upon immigrants and asylum seekers.

Fourth, the far-right candidates and parties up till now have been unsuccessful in making inroads in Ireland’s political system. However, if the issue of housing and health remain unsolved, the day is not far when Ireland joins the infamous list of EU countries which are witnessing the rise of far-right ideological parties.

Global Politics Explainer
Political Crisis in France
Prajwal T V

On 4th December 2024, for the first time in over 60 years, France’s National Assembly ousted Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government through a historic no-confidence vote, after only three months in office, making him the shortest-serving Prime Minister. The motion came after Barnier forced an unpopular budget bill through parliament without a vote. The no-confidence motion passed with 331 votes in the 577-seat National Assembly. This political crisis was a result of a hung parliament following the summer snap elections, leaving no party with a majority and the far right holding significant influence. With no possibility of elections until 2025, France is grappling with a fragile democracy, economic uncertainty, and questions about its leadership under President Macron.

What triggered the No-Confidence Vote?
The no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier was triggered by his decision to invoke special constitutional powers under Article 49(3) to pass a controversial social security financing bill without parliamentary approval. This move united factions across the political spectrum, including the hard-left alliance and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, in opposition. The bill, part of a broader 2024 austerity budget aimed at reducing France’s rapidly growing public debt, proposed €60 billion ($63 billion) in tax increases and spending cuts to bring the fiscal deficit down to 5% by 2025. The no-confidence motion was led by the left-wing alliance, which criticised the government’s budgetary priorities for disproportionately impacting lower-income citizens. The far-right supported the motion, framing their opposition as a defence of national sovereignty against austerity measures allegedly imposed by the European Union.
 
How did France reach here?
After the snap parliamentary elections in the summer of 2024, called by President Emmanuel Macron following a series of governance challenges, France found itself with a hung parliament. No party secured a majority, leaving the legislative body fragmented. President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party faced significant losses, while the far-right National Rally and the hard-left alliance gained ground. Michel Barnier, Macron’s fifth prime minister since 2017, was appointed in an attempt to stabilize governance. However, his tenure was marked by contentious policy decisions and mounting opposition. The country faces significant fiscal pressures, with its budget deficit projected to reach 6% of GDP in 2024 and potentially rising to 7% in 2025 without corrective measures. While the European Union urged France to implement fiscal discipline, austerity measures have faced widespread public resistance. The inability of ideologically polarized parties to collaborate has further deepened instability, particularly on key policies such as the budget.
 
Where do the parties and leaders stand?
The hard-left alliance, which initiated the no-confidence vote, rejects austerity policies and advocates for greater social spending. Their opposition is rooted in a critique of Macron’s neoliberal economic agenda, which they argue exacerbates inequality. Marine Le Pen's National Rally has indicated that it would accept an emergency bill extending the 2024 budget’s tax-and-spend measures into 2025 to ensure temporary financing. However, the party has leveraged the crisis to strengthen its position as a formidable opposition force. Although ideologically opposed to the left, the far-right joined the no-confidence vote to challenge Macron’s leadership and present itself as the defender of French sovereignty. Le Pen framed her support for the no-confidence vote as a stand against the government’s “elitist” policies. President Macron has vowed to remain in office until the end of his term in 2027 and has emphasized the need for France to uphold its constitutional framework. However, Macron’s ability to govern effectively is severely constrained by the fractured parliament, which has made coalition-building exceedingly difficult.

What next for the Parliament?
The immediate challenge for the National Assembly is to support the appointment of a new government and pass critical legislation, including the 2025 budget. With no parliamentary elections permitted until 2025, the assembly must navigate a period of political deadlock over the next 10 months. The left-wing New Popular Front has already stated it will oppose any government that does not include a left-wing leader, while the far-right remains staunchly opposed to Macron’s leadership. François Baroin, a centrist leader, has been mentioned in French media as a potential successor to Barnier. While, President Macron has urged Barnier and his cabinet to stay on as care-taker government till the next Prime Minister is appointed. Without a parliamentary majority and unable to dissolve the National Assembly until mid-2025, France faces a fractured political landscape. The next government must pass legislation on a case-by-case basis, seeking issue-specific support from opposition parties.

What next for President Macron?
French President Emmanuel Macron is navigating a political crisis following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government after a historic no-confidence vote. With no parliamentary majority, Macron must urgently appoint a new prime minister capable of uniting a fractured legislature and passing the 2025 budget. His options include reappointing a figure similar to Barnier, like François Baroin or Bruno Retailleau, or selecting a loyal ally such as Sébastien Lecornu. Another option is centrist veteran François Bayrou, who may bridge gaps between factions. However, Macron has ruled out appointing a left-leaning PM like Bernard Cazeneuve or Lucie Castets, fearing it would signal defeat to his opposition. Until June 2025, dissolving parliament is not an option, heightening the risk of prolonged stalemates. Macron has pledged a special finance law to avoid a shutdown and ensure public services continue. His next steps are critical for restoring political stability and economic confidence.

Global Politics Explainer
Busan Plastic Pollution Summit: What happened in Busan? And what didn't?
Kavithasri M 

On 25 November the Plastic Pollution Summit in Busan, formally known as the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5), took place for six days. This summit brought together more than 3300 participants, including representatives from over 170 countries and more than 440 observer organizations, from 25 November to 1 December 2024, to finalize an international, legally binding treaty to tackle plastic pollution across its full life cycle from production to disposal. This summit follows earlier negotiations and aims to address the escalating environmental crisis. With over 400 million metric tons of plastic produced annually and nearly 11 million tons entering oceans each year, the urgency to curb plastic pollution has never been greater. The treaty seeks to ensure sustainable alternatives, reduce reliance on single-use plastics, and mitigate their impact on ecosystems and human health. With no resolution in sight and significant disagreements remaining, negotiators agreed to resume talks next year, leaving the timeline uncertain. This delay underscores the complexity of addressing the escalating environmental crisis and the need for stronger global cooperation.

What is the plastic pollution issue all about?
Plastic pollution is a significant global environmental crisis, primarily driven by the exponential increase in plastic production and waste. The issue has profound implications for ecosystems, human health, and economies, prompting international efforts. Over 400 million metric tons of plastic are produced annually, with approximately 40 per-cent used for single-use products. Of this, only nine per-cent is recycled, while annually, around 52 million tons of plastic are mismanaged globally, contributing to pollution through litter, uncollected waste, and improper disposal methods. Around 11 million metric tons of plastic enter the oceans each year, disrupting marine ecosystems. Without intervention, this figure could nearly triple by 2040. An estimated 358 trillion particles on ocean surfaces and larger waste, such as abandoned fishing gear, known as "ghost gear." The fishing industry, single-use plastics, and inadequate recycling systems exacerbate the issue. For instance, only about 1% of the estimated 5 trillion plastic bags used annually are recycled, while single-use plastics production continues to rise, projected to increase by 17 million tons by 2027. Geographically, countries in Asia produce 80% of ocean-bound plastic, driven by poor waste management infrastructures and significant waste exports from other regions like Europe. In contrast, high-income nations such as the U.S. generate large amounts of waste per capita, with limited recycling success.

What did the Busan Summit aimed to achieve?
The plastic pollution summit in Busan aimed to create the first-ever legally binding global treaty addressing the plastic pollution crisis. The primary objectives included Addressing the full life cycle of plastics, the treaty sought to tackle plastic pollution from production to disposal, including measures to reduce plastic production, improve recycling and waste management, and promote sustainable alternatives. Mitigating Environmental Impact: With plastic pollution increasingly affecting oceans, wildlife, and ecosystems, the treaty aimed to protect biodiversity by curbing the inflow of plastics into the natural environment. Establishing binding commitments, a key focus was on enforcing global, legally binding controls on harmful chemicals used in plastic manufacturing and setting clear rules to limit plastic waste generation and environmental leakage. Promoting Global Equity, the summit emphasized balancing the interests of developed and developing countries, ensuring equitable responsibilities and support for countries with limited resources to implement plastic reduction measures.

What went right/wrong at Busan?
This summit has both positive and negative outcomes. Things that went right in the summit are the global participation; the summit saw robust participation from over 170 countries and 600 observer organizations, highlighting widespread international commitment to addressing plastic pollution. Acknowledging the issue, most nations recognized the urgency of combating plastic pollution, emphasizing the need for a treaty that tackles the full life cycle of plastics, from production to waste management. Progress on the negotiation framework: delegates managed to streamline discussions by agreeing on a procedural approach, including using a "non-paper" document as the basis for further negotiations, marking a step forward in organizing dialogue. Although the summit concluded without a finalized treaty, it highlighted crucial areas of contention, including the scope of production cuts and the treatment of toxic chemicals.

Things that went wrong are failure to reach agreement; the summit ended without a finalized treaty, with significant disagreements on critical issues, such as reducing global plastic production and imposing legally binding controls on harmful chemicals. Polarized Positions: Oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia resisted efforts to reduce plastic production, fearing economic consequences. Their stance contrasted sharply with the ambitions of developed countries and small island states advocating stringent production cuts. Delays and procedural challenges, prolonged debates over procedural rules and negotiation frameworks, consumed time, leaving substantive issues largely unresolved. There is some uncertainty in future steps; while talks are set to resume in 2025, there is no clear timeline or structure for achieving the treaty, which risks further delays in addressing the escalating plastic pollution crisis.

What’s next after the Busan summit?
Following the inconclusive outcome of the Busan Summit, negotiators plan to resume talks in 2025 to continue working towards a legally binding global treaty on plastic pollution. Negotiators will set a firm timeline and location for the next session in 2025 and will establish a clear agenda to prevent delays and procedural inefficiencies. Refinements to the "non-paper" document used in Busan will likely be made. The aim will be streamline proposals on contentious topics such as production limits, controls on toxic chemicals, and equitable responsibilities for countries. Some countries may introduce or strengthen domestic policies on plastic reduction, recycling, and alternative materials to demonstrate leadership and influence treaty discussions. Developing mechanisms to support lower-income countries in adopting treaty obligations, including funding and technology transfer, will be key discussion points leading up to the next session. Observer organizations and environmental advocacy groups will continue lobbying for an ambitious treaty. Their role in maintaining public and political pressure is critical to ensure progress. While the delay underscores the complexity of global policymaking, it also presents an opportunity for more thorough preparation and consensus-building. The success of the next round will hinge on the ability of countries to prioritize environmental and public health over short-term economic interests.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta and Neha Tresa George

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Establishes first Antarctic atmosphere monitoring research station
On 02 December, SCMP reported that China opened its first monitoring station in the Antarctic. The station is located in the Larsemann Hills of East Antarctica. The station will engage in long-term observation of concentration changes in the Antarctic’s atmosphere. This is China’s ninth atmospheric monitoring station and one of the first outside China.

China: Pakistan to open the Khunjerab port all year-round
On 01 December, the Khunjerab port border crossing between China and Pakistan situated in Xinjiang region kickstarted a full-year operation. The border crossing was closed owing to severe weather conditions. There was a 42.6 per cent and 72.7 per cent hike in transits of goods for 11,000 vehicles and 40,900 tons of goods respectively. Central Asia scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Li Lifan said: “As China is somewhat marginalized by the West amid a stand-off with such nations, engaging with Central Asian countries would yield positive outcomes.”

China: Nepal Prime Minister urges for enhanced bilateral trade 
On 04 December, Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli addressing the Nepal-China Business Summit in Beijing urged enhanced collaboration. He said: “Trade, commerce, and economic relations between our two countries are now at a new level.”  He noted that the strong economic and trade cooperation has boosted overall bilateral cooperation. Chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) Zhang Shaogang expressed that there is no shortage of attractive products in Nepal that Chinese consumers could explore.  

China: Russia held the first sub-committee meeting on Arctic shipping routes
On 25 November, China and Russia held their first sub-committee meeting on Arctic shipping routes in Saint Petersburg. China’s Transport Minister Liu Wei attended the event at the invitation of Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom. This is a significant diplomatic milestone on the 75th anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations. The new mechanism of cooperation will improve the safety of navigation in the Arctic, the technology of shipbuilding, and transportation capabilities. Rosatom’s director Alexey Likhachev called this partnership historic and expressed his enthusiasm for deepening cooperation in all areas. The meeting agreed on approved subcommittee regulations and key collaborative objectives for 2025. Both countries were committed to the joint development of Arctic shipping routes, sharing technological insights, and furthering mutual strategic interests through concrete, forward-looking initiatives.

China: CPC holds dialogue with Central and Eastern European political parties
On 25 November, CPC conducted a dialogue with political representatives from Central and Eastern European Countries, bringing together nearly 50 delegates from 19 parties across 12 nations. Those participating from abroad spoke highly of China’s unique model of development as the alternative global approach. They showed their eagerness to strengthen bilateral understanding. The theme of the event was “China's Modernization and New Opportunities for China-CEEC Relations: Contribution of Political Parties,” and highlighted the willingness and dedication to creating genuine political exchanges and ways of cooperation for mutual development and diplomatic involvement.

China: Paraguay’s Foreign Minister on a state visit to Taiwan
On 27 November, Paraguay’s Foreign Minister Ruben Ramirez Lezcano arrived in Taiwan for a four-day visit. On his arrival, he was greeted by Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Tien Chung-kwang. Foreign Minister Ruben spoke to reporters on his arrival where he expressed that he was happy to visit Taiwan again to further bilateral ties. He also sent regards from Paraguay’s President Santiago Pena as he affirmed Taiwan-Paraguay’s 67-year-old cooperation. Paraguay is one of the 12 countries that recognize ties with Taiwan officially. 

China: 40 cooperation agreements with Brazil
On 20 November, China’s President Xi Jinping and Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva raised their bilateral relations to a higher level, establishing a “Community with a Shared Future,” underlining a strategic partnership. 40 cooperation agreements were signed in agriculture, energy, and communications. With bilateral trade exceeding USD 150 billion, the two countries are positioning themselves as important players in the global south. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture projects USD 450 million in new exports, and companies such as BRF are expanding into Chinese markets. Xi declared the China-Brazil relationship to be “at its best moment ever,” marking a new era in their collaboration.

China: Emerges as the second-largest Pacific Islands donor, reports Lowy Institute
On 20 November, the 2024 Pacific Aid Map by the Lowy Institute claimed that China is now the second-largest donor to Pacific Island countries after Australia. China’s contribution came in at USD 1.5 billion. After a significant drop due to the pandemic, China boosted its financing by six per cent in 2022 and provided USD 256 million via a new “double-pronged approach,” focusing on grants rather than loans. It included community-level initiatives such as vehicle donations and support for agricultural equipment. However, concerns remain over debt financing from China to countries including the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. The report indicates that geopolitics drove much of what Beijing was considering in pursuing its ‘One China’ policy. Taiwan lost a place in the donor list’s top ten after several countries switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing. Between 2008 and 2016, Chinese banks have provided the region with over USD 1.1 billion, fueling concerns over possible diplomatic pressure from Beijing. 

Taiwan: Lithuania an indispensable partner, claims foreign minister
On 20 November, Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung expressed that Taiwan and Lithuania are “indispensable partners.” The statement was made during his visit to Lithuania’s capital Vilnius to celebrate the three years of establishment of the Taiwan Representative Office. Lin noted that both countries are on the front line of the democratic camp as they face direct threats from Russia and China. The event was co-hosted with the Taiwan Friendship Group of Lithuania’s parliament. Lin added that their relations established rapidly as they developed areas of investment and trade. He stressed that it is important for democratic countries like theirs to unite while authoritarian countries try to expand. 

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
North Korea: To convene the 11th plenary meeting of the Workers’ Party 
On 03 December, KCNA reported that North Korea is preparing to convene the 11th plenary meeting of its ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) in December. This is a crucial gathering, traditionally used to outline national policy directions. Leader Kim Jong-un is expected to articulate his strategic stance on the new US administration. The meeting aims to review 2024’s policy execution and chart the course for 2025, with announcements on nuclear programs and international relations.

South Korea: President Yoon’s approval rating slides to 13 per cent, Gallup survey
On 06 December, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating dipped to 13 per cent; an all-time low. Gallup conducted a survey of 1,001 adults over the age of 18. Yoon’s popularity fell by three per cent, which is the lowest since he took office in 2022. The negative assessment rose to a record high of 75 per cent, with 19 per cent of respondents citing economic concerns and the recent debacle by Yoon. The general support for the People Power Party fell by five per cent from the previous week, while the opposition Democratic Party of Korea received a positive hike of four per cent. This shift in mood is owed to South Korea’s President abruptly imposing Martial Law that was readily revoked in the span of a few hours. The move by Yoon was seen as a failed power-grabbing attempt.

South Korea: Opposition parties to impeach the President
On 05 December, South Korea’s main opposition party Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) announced that they would push for the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. This comes after Yoon called for an emergency Martial Law to be instated, which was readily retracted after hours of public and government outrage. DPK and other opposition parties moved a motion to impeach the President. The opposition argues that Yoon’s action violated the South Korean Constitution and other laws. DPK’s deputy spokesperson Chi Seung-rae informed that they will hold a vote on the impeachment motion, to give the ruling party more time to decide on Yoon’s actions. The motion was moved in South Korea’s National Assembly. According to the law, the impeachment motion must be put to vote within 72 hours of moving. To pass the motion a two-thirds majority is required. 

Japan: Tokyo-Beijing Forum calls to bolster people-to-people exchange
On 06 December, 100 Japanese and Chinese delegations called upon their governments to further dialogue and promote people-to-people exchange at the China-Japan Forum, attended by political and business leaders. The forum called to establish a “strategic framework of confidence-building.” The statement issued at the forum called for a “mutually beneficial relationship” based on common but strategic interests. The forum was hosted by Genron NPO and China International Communications group.

Solomon Island: Reform Commission reviews the marriage law
On 06 December, RNZ reported that the Solomon Island Reform Commission is reviewing the Islander and Divorce Act. The discussion aims to raise the minimum marriage age from 15 to 18 years. The Solomon Islands Endim Vaelens Agenstims Pikinini, a collation of charities in Solomon Island, found that one in five girls were married before 18 in urban areas and one in four girls in rural areas. Save the Children, an NGO claims that children marrying too young can lead to larger problems like domestic violence, illiteracy, being unqualified for jobs, and earning a livelihood. 

Vanuatu: Climate envoy contends Australia’s demand of holding legal obligation over climate change
On 05 December, RNZ reported that Vanuatu's Special Envoy for Climate and Environment Regenvanu opposed Australia’s demand to hold a legal obligation against the country over climate change. Australia argued that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and the Paris Agreement are the main sources of international obligation. Rengenvanu said: “These nations, some of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters, have pointed to existing treaties and commitments that have regrettably failed to motivate substantial reductions in emissions.” He additionally stated that it is concerning that some of these countries do not acknowledge the severity of the crisis and responsibility. 

Japan: To release USD 89.7 billion stimulus package
On 21 November, Reuters reported that Japan plans to spend USD 89.7 billion for the new stimulus package. The package aims to deter the effect of inflating prices and its impact on households. It allocates JPY eight trillion in investments into local governments and private funding. The package will contribute USD 193 for low-income households, exempt residential taxes, and provide JPY 20,000 per child. The ruling coalition and the main opposition agreed on the package. 

Japan: LDP proposes reforms to enhance political transparency
On 20 November, The Japan News reported that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would scrap political activity funds for individual lawmakers by proposing to revise the Political Funds Control Law. It would ban foreign nationals and corporations from buying fundraising tickets for politicians, reinforcing restrictions that have already banned foreign donations to avoid external influences in Japanese politics. A third-party body to supervise political funds would be set up. LDP plans to seek passage of the bill in the extraordinary Diet session beginning on 28 November. 

Japan: UK to form an economic “two-plus-two” ministerial framework 
On 20 November, Asian News Network reported that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have agreed to establish an economic “two-plus-two” ministerial framework. This marks Japan’s second such arrangement after its US partnership. The UK Prime Minister’s Office stated that the dialogue will strengthen bilateral collaboration on “international trade, economy and geopolitics issues.” The two leaders spoke on promoting cooperation in joint projects including next-generation fighter development with Italy. 

New Zealand: Samoan Citizenship Bill passed
On 21 November, RNZ reported that the Samoa Citizenship Bill was approved by New Zealand’s parliament with unanimous support. However, several concerns remain regarding the bill, such as whether international Samoans will be eligible for citizenship. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Indonesia: Plans to introduce new tax reforms
On 23 November, The Straits Times reported on the new tax concession in Indonesia. The head of the parliamentary commission overseeing finance affairs, Mukhamad Misbakhun, said that discussions were ongoing with the government regarding tax reforms. The last tax concessions were introduced in 2016 and 2022 when Joko Widodo was president. Taxpayers were given lower than normal tax rates if their unreported assets were released. As a result of the two tax concessions, around USD 340 billion worth of assets were reported. 

Malaysia: Plans to extend the system of QR code to other forms of transport
On 18 November, The Straits Times reported on extending QR codes to other forms of transport at the Joho-Singapore border. Malaysian travellers crossing the border by bus or motorcycle were allowed to use QR codes. This move aimed to address the issue of causeway traffic congestion. Malaysian Home Minister Saifuddin Nasution Ismail said: “It was agreed in the meeting to finalise the procurement process for the QR code system this year following the proof-of-concept (POC) submission.” He believes that the Johor Causeway could manage 150 million travellers annually with the current data. Almost 80 per cent of the 4.00,000 crossings used this system. This proved to have reduced the traffic congestion at the border during peak hours.

Myanmar: Military leader promises free and fair elections
On 20 November, The Irrawaddy reported the statements by Myanmar military's leader Min Aung Hlaing on holding free and fair elections. During a recent visit to China, he promised  "free and fair elections" monitored by international observers. Chinese Premier Li Qiang confirmed his assistance in the elections and the census. Min confirmed that political parties could register for the polls with proportional representation in national and sub-national parliaments. 

Bangladesh: Indian Foreign Secretary to visit Dhaka amid protests 
On 7 December, a press release from the Chhatra Dal Office announced that a joint protest would be organized by the Bangladesh National Party. They have planned a protest at the Indian High Commission in Dhaka as a response to an attack on the Assistant High Commission of Bangladesh in Agartala by a group which was furious with the arrest of a Hindu monk in Bangladesh. This resulted in a halt in the provision of consulate services and visas for Indians travelling to Bangladesh. Separately, the retired armed forces members rallied against the attack on the High Commission in Bangladesh. They demonstrated against the “Indian aggression” in the protests titled “Against Indian Hegemony.” On 6 December, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs announced that Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri would be arriving in Dhaka on 9 December 2024 to carry out the ongoing “structured interactions with Bangladesh.”

Nepal: Renews BRI MoU with China
On 3 December, China and Nepal renewed their seven-year Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative during Prime Minister KP Oli Sharma’s four-day visit to China. The MoU has a validity of three years which can be extended for another three years unless it is terminated by either party. Under the framework, Nepal will be granted involvement in the BRI. However, it would have limited powers of negotiation under the initiative. The main objective of this cooperation framework is to encourage financial and technical cooperation in connectivity, trade, economic development, logistics and investment.

India: Russian President Putin expresses interest in setting up manufacturing firms
On 4 December, while speaking at the 15th Vneshtorgbank (VTB) Investment Forum in Moscow, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin praised the ‘Make in India’ initiative. He stated how it has allowed the country to secure a position in the global economy as it emphasizes domestic production and attracts foreign investment. He expressed interest in establishing Russian manufacturing firms in India as the latter has created a favourable environment for small and medium-sized enterprises.

India: Adani group denies allegations of bribery
On 20 November, the US Department of Justice and US Securities and Exchange Commission indicted Adani Group head Gautam Adani for alleged involvement in bribery. He is accused of bribing USD 265 million to the Indian government to secure a solar power project in Asia. However, the Adani Group claimed the charges were “baseless.” Responding to the incident, Kenyan President William Ruto cancelled a USD two billion deal and a USD 736 million private-public partnership deal with the group. The deals were sought to upgrade the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and energy sector. 

Nepal: Electricity exports to Bangladesh commence via cross-border grid
On 22 November, India’s Minister of Housing and Urban Affairs Manohar Lal, Nepal’s Minister of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Deepak Khadka, and Bangladesh’s Energy Advisor Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan inaugurated the energy export. On 3 October, an agreement was signed by three countries on the export of 40 megawatts (MW) of electricity to Bangladesh from Nepal’s hydroelectric plant through India. India’s Ministry of External Affairs highlighted: “The start of this power flow from Nepal to Bangladesh through India is expected to boost sub-regional connectivity in the power sector.” The power exports are set to be transmitted via the 400-kilovolt Dhalkebar Muzaffarpur line in India. 

Nepal: Repatriation of 47 Nepali nationals from Russia and Bulgaria 
On 19 November, 29 Nepali nationals returned to Kathmandu after facing deportation from Russia for not attending university and having a work permit. On 30 October, 34 Nepali nationals were arrested by the Russian authorities from a call centre. The remaining five are in the middle of deportation processes. According to the Non-Resident Nepali Association (NRNA) Russia, the students lacked proper documentation to seek legal assistance. He said: “We were prepared to hire a lawyer to pursue legal remedies, but they could not provide documents such as contracts with the employer or proof of university attendance.”

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
The UAE: Inaugurates ten maternity centres in Afghanistan
On 7 December, the United Arab Emirates inaugurated ten maternity centres in Afghanistan as part of its Comprehensive Development Programme (CDP) in the war-torn country. The CDP, overseen by the UAE’s Coordination Office for Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan, aimed to improve basic healthcare infrastructure. The maternity centres are in Herat, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Helmand, Paktika and Mazar-i-Sharif.

United Arab Emirates: Signs USD 5 Billion worth MoU with Azerbaijan for demining
On 27 November, the UAE’s Ambassador to Azerbaijan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Azerbaijan’s Board of Mine Action Agency (ANAMA), which would support the latter’s demining efforts in Azerbaijan’s disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited the MoU as an example of the UAE’s global humanitarian role of providing technical and financial support to alleviate civilian suffering in conflict zones and promote sustainable development

Saudi Arabia: Clean energy deal between Japan and Saudi Arabia firms
On 20 November, the Saudi Arabia-based ACWA Power signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Japan-based ITOCHU group at the COP 29 meeting in Azerbaijan’s Baku. The deal aimed to strengthen investments in environmental infrastructure in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Highlighting ACWA Power’s status as the world’s largest water desalination firm, its CEO, Marco Arcelli, stated that the partnership “would benefit from our expertise in renewable energy sources, water desalination and green hydrogen.”

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Ghana: Presidential and legislative election concluded
On 7 December, Ghana concluded its presidential and legislative elections. President Nana Akufo-Addo will be stepping down after completing two terms. Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and opposition candidate John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) are two major candidates among 12 others.

Namibia: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah to become first woman president
On 3 December, Namibia’s electoral commission declared Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as the winner of the presidential elections. Ndaitwah will be the country’s first female president. She secured 57 per cent of the vote. Her victory has ensured the continuity of the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) party’s rule. Opposition parties have rejected the results after technical problems and delays marred the election process.

Burkina Faso: Military sacks prime minister and dissolves government
On 7 December, Burkina Faso’s ruling military leader Ibrahim Traoré dismissed Prime Minister, Apollinaire Joachim Kyelem de Tambela and dissolved the government. Tambela was appointed prime minister in October 2022 following the military coup. No official reason has been given for the removal and dissolution of the government. The presidential decree stated: "The prime minister’s official functions are terminated."

Angola: US President Joe Biden’s visit
On 2 December, US President, Joe Biden, began his three-day visit to Angola. According to BBC, the visit comes amidst uncertainty over US-Africa relations as President-elect Donald Trump assumes office in January. Joe Biden is the first US president to visit Angola. He discussed a USD 800 million US-backed railway project in the Lobito Corridor, connecting the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to Angola. The visit also aims to deter increasing China and Russia’s engagements in the region. Angola is strategically important to many global actors for its oil, cobalt, and lithium reserves.

Chad: Plans to end military ties with France
On 29 November, Chad’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abderaman Koulamallah announced that the country is ending its defence agreement with France, which will require French troops to leave the country. Koulamallah mentioned that France is “an essential partner” but “must now also consider that Chad has grown up, matured and is a sovereign state that is very jealous of its sovereignty.” The announcement was made following France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot’s visit to Chad the previous week. 1,000 French troops are stationed in Chad, fighting the Islamist insurgency in the region.

Nigeria: President Tinubu visits France
On 28 November, Africanews reported on Nigerian President Bola Tinubu’s visit to France; the first time in 24 years. The visit was aimed at boosting economic ties and attracting foreign investment. Tinubu stated: "We've been working on stabilizing the security system in Nigeria, and we are getting closer and closer. We are doing better now in the area of security. I assure all the investors here that Nigeria is open for business and I thank you for your collaboration.” Tinubu and France’s President Emmanuel Macron held meetings at the “Franco-Nigerian Business Council” forum. Macron stated: "To us, economic partnerships place France as a partner in the long run to work, with you, on your country's food safety, the extraction and value maximization of the critical ore your country has, and as a partner, with our industries, in your defense and security strategy - that's three priorities we want to commit to.”

Somaliland: Opposition wins the presidential elections
On 19 November, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) of self-declared Somaliland announced the victory of opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi in the presidential elections held on 16 November. Abdullahi from the Waddani Party received 64 per cent of votes against incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye Party. Both parties have promised to tackle the economic crisis and push for the international recognition of Somaliland. Abdullahi stated: “We are all winners, the Somaliland state won.” He will be sworn in on 14 December.

Gabon: New constitution to stage civilian transition
On 18 November, the Gabonese people voted in favour of the new constitution. According to the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI), the voter turnout was 54 per cent and 92 per cent voted in favour. The new constitution is expected to set the stage for a civilian transition with a probable election in August 2025. It establishes a seven-year term of presidency, renewable once and with no room for dynastic rule. Many critics claim that the new constitution was formulated in a way by coup leader Brice Oligui Nguema to stay in power. Nguema ousted former President Ali Bongo and his dynastic rule in 2023 through a military coup.

Senegal: Ruling Pastef wins snap election
On 21 November, Senegal’s vote-counting commission declared the victory of the ruling Pastef party in the snap elections. Pastef secured 130 of 165 seats in the parliament. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye conducted the snap elections to secure a mandate to carry out reforms promised during his campaign. It included fighting corruption, enhancing the fishing industry and maximising natural resources benefits. Faye dissolved the parliament and called for snap elections on 12 September. The Pastef representative Amadou Ba stated: “It is very important not only in terms of the legitimacy of the new authorities but also regarding our technical and financial partners that they know that there is a people standing behind this new government.”

Mali: Military institutes new prime minister
On 21 November, Mali’s military government appointed a new prime minister after Choguel Maïga was dismissed for criticising the junta for delaying the presidential elections. General Abdoulaye Maïga has previously served as minister of territorial administration, government spokesperson and deputy prime minister.

Mozambique: EU pledges EUR 20 million aid to RDF
On 19 November, the EU council pledged EUR 20 million in aid to Rwanda Defence Force’s (RSF) deployment in Mozambique, supporting IS-linked insurgency. The pledged amount is double the previous assistance in 2022. Vice-President of the EU Commission, Josep Borell, stated that the “presence of the Rwanda Defence Force troops has been instrumental to make progress and remains key.” He described the funding as a “testimony of the EU’s support to ‘African solutions for African problems’.”

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The EU: Deal with Latin America amid opposition from France
On 06 December, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Parliament, signed a deal with Latin American countries. “Today marks a truly historic milestone,” von der Leyen said after summit talks with leaders of the Mercosur bloc in Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay. The agreement will create a free trade zone for more than 700 million citizens. The deal took 25 years to be completed and signed. France opposes it as it will affect the poultry and farming industry of the country. Meanwhile, German leaders are celebrating the deal. Siegfried Russwurmhe, head of the Federation of German Industry (BDI), stated: “This agreement will provide an urgently needed growth impulse for the German and European economy.” The deal aims to deepen ties between the EU and the Mercosur countries. However, the deal is yet to be ratified by the signatory countries.

France: Socialist party to discuss with Macron over forming the new government
On 07 December, Olivier Faure, leader of the Socialist party, told the media that he is eager to discuss the formation of the new government with President Emmanuel Macron. He said: “We need to find a solution because we can’t let the country grind to a halt for months.” Macron stated that he is looking for a Prime Minister to represent all blocs. However, leaders of the Greens party were not invited to the President's office for the formation of the government. Therefore, the Greens party called on the Socialist party to be careful when negotiating with President Macron.

Romania: Court cancels Presidential elections amid speculation of Russian security threats
On 06 December, the Supreme Court of Romania cancelled the upcoming presidential elections due to concerns over Russia’s potential “hybrid” attacks on the country. Russia’s involvement was already speculated with the rising popularity of pro-Russia candidate, Călin Georgescu, through TikTok. Meanwhile, the government of Romania will have to make adequate preparations for fresh presidential elections. The current presidential term is supposed to end on 21 December. However, it has been extended and the current president would continue to hold the office until a new president is sworn in. The Romanian government declassified intelligence reports which suggested that the TikTok algorithm was manipulated through paid promotions in favour of a pro-Russia narrative. Re-election has created further confusion, with more than 48,000 Romanians living abroad already casting their votes.

Germany: Olaf Scholz to be questioned over EUR 36 billion tax scandal
On 05 December, Politico reported on the challenges for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz will present himself on 06 December before Hamburg's parliamentary investigation committee over charges the scandal estimated to be around EUR 36. He will be questioned over his dealing with HSH Nordbank which has paid around EUR 126 million to the tax authorities in 2014. Chancellor Scholz is former Mayor of the Hamburg city-state. Julia Klöckner, a senior lawmaker from the center-right Christian Democratic Union, said: “Scholz is responsible for the fact that the state has lost millions of taxpayers’ money.” Germany’s snap elections are due in February 2025. Meanwhile, Chancellor Scholz is already struggling with political hold in the country. 

Germany: Expected to face a 10 per cent contraction in workforce, says a study
On 26 November, Deutsche Welle reported on a study conducted by the Bertelsmann Foundation on the shrinking workforce in Germany. The study said that Germany’s workforce would reduce by 10 per cent by 2040 without “substantial immigration.” It would drop from 46.4 million to 41.9 million in 2040 without at least 288000 skilled foreign workers per year. According to Germany’s migration experts, the demographic shift needed immigration. For this, they suggested better reforms and removal of restrictions for immigrants. Some of the migrants reported to have faced discrimination and rejection in their work environments. This reduction in workforce was expected to affect North Rhine-Westphalia, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt and the small state of Saarland on the French border.

Regional: EU states stall Serbia's accession process
On 25 November, Euronews reported that Serbia’s accession talks with the EU under the recommendation of Hungary were stopped. A group of EU countries Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden refused the move proposed by Hungary. They highlighted Serbia’s track record on fundamental rights, problematic relations with neighbouring Kosovo and reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia. Hungary, being a strong supporter for Serbia’s accession to the EU tabled the proposal to bring it closer to the Cluster 3 of the accession process, covering eight chapters related to competitiveness and economic growth, such as taxation, monetary policy, employment, customs union and scientific research. Serbia’s free trade agreement with China was also one of the main points of contention. Although Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić expressed his commitment to join the EU, he confirmed to maintain good ties with Russia.

Poland: Law and Justice Party announces historian Nawrocki as presidential candidate
On 24 November, Euronews reported that Poland's conservative Law and Justice party chose Karol Nawrocki as its candidate for Presidential elections scheduled to be held in August 2025. Nawrocki is a 41-year-old historian who has led the Institute of National Remembrance since 2021, a state body that stores archives and researches the crimes of World War II and the communist era. He said: “I am ready to become your president. I am ready because I have been with you all my life. I am next to you I know Poles and I understand your needs. Yes, I am one of you.” The party chose him over popular politicians like former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. 

Germany: SPD confirms the nomination of Scholz for the 2025 federal elections
On 22 November, Deutsche Welle reported that the Social Democrats (SPD) had confirmed the nomination of Olaf Scholz as the lead Chancellor candidate in the 2025 federal elections. The party's co-leader Lars Klingbeil said: "We want to go into the next election campaign with Olaf Scholz.” This announcement came after Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius informed the SPD that he would not stand for the position of chancellor. He praised Scholz for being the Chancellor with “reason and prudence” and managing the coalition through the biggest crisis in decades. The other party members welcomed this decision and expressed their support for Scholz in the upcoming elections.

Germany: Scholz meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit
On 19 November, Deutsche Welle reported on the talks between Chancellor Scholz and China’s President Xi Jinping. At the sidelines of the G20 summit, they discussed trade, economic relations and the war in Ukraine. Scholz said: “It is important that we ensure that a level playing field accompanies the economic activities of companies on all sides, that is central to the conditions for future work.” In response, Xi stressed the development of a "strategic" and "long-term" relationship with Germany. The leaders hoped for a peaceful negotiation and dialogue with the EU over the “tit for tat tariffs on electric vehicles” as it has impacted the German economy. Scholz shared his disapproval of China’s delivery of weapons to Russia. 

The EU: Risk of economic slowdown and debt sustainability
On 20 November, Politico reported on the warnings issued by the European Central Bank (ECB) over the weak growth of the EU’s economy amidst tariffs imposed by the US. It has expressed its concern over “debt sustainability” and “policy uncertainty” in the light of current conditions. The major countries in the EU including France and Italy face low growth with their public finances already stretched. ECB noted that several business companies were going bankrupt with the low growth rates coupled with rising interest rates. Additionally, US President-elect Donald Trump has promised to impose 20 per cent tariffs on all the exported European goods. ECB fears that such a move would push the EU into a prolonged economic slowdown.

About the Authors
Abhiruchi Chowdhury is a Research Assistant at National Institute of Advanced Studies. Prajwal T V is an undergraduate student of Journalism, International Relations and Peace Studies at St Joseph’s University, Bengaluru. Kavithasri M is a postgraduate student at the Pondicherry University. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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