The World This Week #308 &309 Vol. 7 No. 17 &18, 04 May 2025
 

Padmashree Anandhan, R Preetha & Brighty Ann Sarah

Ukraine: The mineral deal with the US
Padmashree Anandhan

What happened? 
On 30 April, the US Treasury Secretary and Ukraine’s Economy Minister signed the critical minerals deal. According to Reuters, the deal includes the creation of the joint fund, in which Ukraine would receive half the profits. The agreement also includes providing the US with preferential access to any new Ukraine resources deal, but there will be no direct control over Ukraine’s minerals and natural resources.

On 01 May, Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev said: “Trump has broken the Kyiv regime to the point where they will have to pay for U.S. aid with mineral resources.” "Now they (Ukrainians) will have to pay for military supplies with the national wealth of a disappearing country."

On 01 May, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy announced finalising of minerals agreement with the US as a “historic” and significantly improved deal. He described it as an “equal partnership” to invite major investments, industrial modernization, and legal reforms in Ukraine. 

The US-Ukraine agreement establishes a jointly managed Reconstruction Investment Fund to plough future incomes from Ukraine’s natural resources—such as critical minerals, oil, and gas—into post-war recovery and economic growth. Under a revenue-sharing model, Ukraine will contribute 50 per cent of net earnings from new resource projects, while present resource revenues are expected to protect current industries. The US pledges long-term financial support to Ukraine’s economy. However, the deal excludes explicit security guarantees, a concern for Ukraine given its anticipations for tougher assurances in exchange for giving resource access.

What is the background? 
First, Ukraine’s minerals and its significance. Ukraine holds vast unexploited reserves of critical minerals including graphite, titanium and lithium. The US need them for developing its renewable energy, military technology, and infrastructure. They are essential for electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, and military technologies. Ukraine holds about 20 per cent of global reserves. While most of these resources continue to be undeveloped and rare earth mining is not yet commercially operative, their strategic worth has grown amidst global supply chain worries and efforts to lessen dependency on China’s mineral supremacy. 

Second, Trump’s push for the deal. His interest in a deal with Ukraine emerges from the need to secure access to Ukraine's unexploited critical minerals. Thereby, through collaboration, Trump can decrease US dependency on China for strategic resources, aligning with his economic agenda and “America First” policy. 

Third, the difficult road to the deal. During October 2024 to April 2025, several high-level meetings were held between the US and Ukraine to finalise the framework of the deal. The negotiations began in the US in October 2024 where Ukraine’s ministers of energy and economy met with members of  Trump’s foreign policy advisory team. A working group session in Kyiv in December 2024 was convened, discussing the resource valuations, revenue-sharing terms, and the structure of the proposed Reconstruction Investment Fund. In January, Zelenskyy and Trump met in private in Geneva during a regional security conference, which served as a key moment in aligning political intentions with economic terms. Throughout February and early March, additional technical negotiations were held to draft legal frameworks and simplify the omission of existing resource revenues. The rebuttal in the Oval Office between Trump and Zelenskyy stalled the talks. The final meeting held in April 2025 at the Vatican, where Trump and Zelenskyy met and aimed at settling existing disagreements, especially for security guarantees and governance of the investment fund.

What does it mean? 
First, the deal assures Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction effort and economic stability. The signing of the deal marks a shift in the US’s approach to prioritize Ukraine’s economic recovery over military aid. Although the deal lacks a clear security guarantee, it is a step away from defence support. This would weaken Ukraine's position in the negotiation for peace and boost Russia’s position for its continued resistance against the West’s military. However, Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth to US investment, the deal would be a deterrent, aiding Ukraine’s economic future.

Second, potential geopolitical tension. The US presence in Ukraine through this deal increases the US influence, positioning it as a key partner in Ukraine's recovery and resource development. While direct military engagement in avoided, it provides a strategic grip in Eastern Europe, opposing Russian aggression and restraining European dominance in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Therefore, such increased economic engagement could heighten tensions with Russia, which may perceive it as further US intrusion, intensifying the geopolitical divide.

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah 

What happened? 
On 1 May, the second round of US-Japan tariff negotiations ended without breakthroughs. Tensions persisted as Japan opposed the US refusal to reduce tariffs on automobiles and key auto manufacturing metals. This marks the second rejection of Japan’s request, with the US citing its unwillingness to grant “preferential treatment.” A fresh 25 per cent tariff on selected auto parts, imposed on Saturday, added pressure. Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba called additional auto tariffs “absolutely unacceptable.” 

On 1 May, South Korea concluded two days of working-level trade talks in Washington. While details remain undisclosed, the discussions aim to shape a “July package” covering tariffs, economic security, investment, and currency policy. USTR Jamieson Greer praised South Korea’s proactive stance, though Vice Minister Park Sung-taek dismissed speculation of a deal before the election.

On 30 April, President Donald Trump claimed that Samsung Electronics’ plans to build "massive" facilities in the US due to his tariff policy, citing it as a key achievement.  This week, Taiwan also concluded its first round of “substantive” tariff talks and proposed a USD 10 billion addition to its USD 12.6 billion post-tariff economic aid package. 

What is the background? 
First, Trump’s tariffs on Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. On 2 April, Trump declared "Liberation Day" and unveiled sweeping tariffs on all US imports. A 10 per cent universal tariff on all imported goods took effect on 5 April, with additional tariffs on specific countries starting 9 April. A 25 per cent tariff was imposed on car and truck imports, along with a 24 per cent tariff on all Japanese goods, a 25 per cent duty on imports from South Korea, and a 32 per cent tariff on Taiwanese products—excluding semiconductors. However, these tariffs were temporarily suspended for 90 days for countries that chose not to implement retaliatory measures. The suspension is set to be lifted on July 8. 

Second, the US trade deficit with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Japan, the US’s largest foreign investor and fifth-largest trade partner, reported a USD 84.8 billion trade deficit in 2024, up from USD 68.0 billion in 2022—driven mainly by imports of vehicles, machinery, and appliances. US exports to Japan were USD 80.3 billion in 2022, while imports hit USD 148.3 billion. South Korea–US trade reached USD 197.1 billion in 2024, with a USD 66.0 billion US trade deficit. Auto and semiconductor imports drove this gap. Taiwan, now the US’s seventh-largest trade partner, saw a record USD 73.9 billion trade deficit with the US in 2024, with semiconductors exempt from tariffs, reflecting their strategic value

Third, the significance of the US trade for the three countries. The tariffs strain US alliances with Japan and South Korea, key partners in countering China and North Korea. Taiwan facing Chinese military pressure risks weakened US. These countries rely on the US for security and as a key export market; Japan is the fifth-largest US trade partner, Taiwan the seventh, and South Korea a major player. Escalating trade tensions could destabilize their economic positions. Japan, grappling with inflation from rising energy and food costs, depends on US imports like natural gas and agricultural products (25 per cent of its food imports). Retaliatory tariffs risk exacerbating inflation and economic stagnation, a “self-defeating” outcome for Japanese consumers and businesses. South Korea and Taiwan, similarly export-dependent, face potential disruptions to their US market access, threatening economic stability and complicating their balancing act between US alignment and regional dynamics. 

What does it mean?
First, the ongoing negotiations signal Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan’s strategic recalibration to navigate Trump’s aggressive tariff regime. Japan’s push for tariff reductions on autos and metals, paired with offers to boost US agricultural imports, reflects a pragmatic bid to protect its automotive sector while addressing US trade deficit concerns. South Korea’s proactive engagement, despite election uncertainties, underscores its intent to secure economic stability through a comprehensive “July package,” balancing tariffs with investment and currency policies. Taiwan’s substantial economic aid package aims to cushion tariff impacts and maintain US goodwill, leveraging its semiconductor dominance. 

Second, the willingness to negotiate reflects economic interdependence and the 8 July tariff deadline which risks severe disruptions. Third, it highlights Trump leveraging the tariffs and the deadline to push favorable projects like Alaska LNG as part of the negotiations.  

Third, the East Asian responses highlight the balancing act of these countries - safeguarding domestic industries, maintaining US alliances, and resisting decoupling from China. The negotiation outcomes will shape the US -East Asia relations moving forward, and may push Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea toward trade diversification.

Global Politics Explainer
Canada Election 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
R Preetha 

Following Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister in January 2025, Canada held elections for all 343 Parliamentary seats on 28 April. The Liberal Party led by Mark Carney, emerged victorious, securing 169, just short of 172 needed for a majority. The Conservative Party captured 144 seats.

What does the election convey?
This result ensures Carney’s continuation as PM, a role he assumed in March 2025 following Trudeau’s resignation. The results also reveal the consolidation of voter support of the Liberals and Conservatives; together, these two parties claimed over 80 per cent of the popular vote —the highest since 1930. 

Second, for the Liberals, the results reflect a consolidation of their 2021 performance, with a modest gain. In 2021, they won 160 seats and the Conservatives 119. Third, the results also underscore regional and political fractures. The Liberals dominated in Ontario and Eastern Canada, while the Conservatives swept Alberta and Saskatchewan. British Columbia split evenly, with both securing around 41 per cent of the vote. Fourth, the above two party surge has come at the expense of smaller parties, particularly the National Democratic Party (NDP); its share of the popular vote is down by 12 per cent. The Bloc Québécois secured 22 seats but lost its ground in Quebec, while the Green Party won a single seat.

Who were the key players?
Mark Carney, 60, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, took over the Liberal Party in January 2025, replacing Justin Trudeau. His campaign emphasized resilience against the US threats. Pierre Poilievre, 45, has led the Conservatives since 2022, cultivating a populist image rooted in “common sense politics.” A Member of Parliament since 2004, Poilievre’s style, echoing Trump’s, initially propelled the Conservatives but Trump’s trade war cost him momentum. He lost Carleton, a seat he held for two decades.

The NDP, a social-democratic party led by Canadian Sikh Jagmeet Singh, 46, supported Trudeau’s minority government during 2021-24. The NDP has consistently been the third or fourth largest party. The party’s left-leaning base, disillusioned by economic anxieties and drawn to Carney’s anti-Trump stance, defected en masse to the Liberals, and secured only seven seats. Singh’s defeat in Burnaby Centre, prompted his resignation.

The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet since 2019, advocates Quebec sovereignty and fields candidates exclusively in Quebec. Still, they are a key player in Canadian elections, and their popularity in Quebec could determine the fate of the other major parties looking to form government.

What were the election issues?
First, dealing with Trump. Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, including threats of steep tariffs and provocative calls for Canada to become the “51st state,” spurred a wave of Canadian nationalism. Trump’s imposition of harsh tariffs on Canadian imports, combined with Canada’s reliance on the US for nearly 80 per cent of its exports, elevated trade and sovereignty to top voter concerns. Carney’s pledge to retaliate with targeted tariffs and diversify trade with “reliable allies” resonated with voters. Poilievre’s initial reluctance to confront Trump directly alienated moderates, contributing to his electoral setbacks.

Second, the soaring prices for essentials, with inflation peaking at 8.1 per cent in June 2022. The Liberals proposed a one-point income tax cut for the lowest bracket and sales tax exemptions for first-time homebuyers on properties under C$1 million. The Conservatives countered with a steeper tax cut, scrapping sales tax on new homes and Canadian-made cars. The NDP and Bloc Québécois offered targeted relief, focusing on essentials and pensions.

Third, the housing crisis. The Liberals pledged to double annual housing starts to 500,000 through a federal developer and C$25 billion in financing. The Conservatives aimed to build 2.3 million homes in five years by linking funds to municipal targets, while the NDP proposed three million affordable units, emphasizing rent controls.

Fourth, climate policy. Carney repealed Trudeau’s consumer carbon tax but kept industrial carbon pricing, promising to balance emissions reduction with industrial growth. His openness to new pipelines, alongside a proposed east-west electricity grid, signaled towards this balance. The Conservatives vowed to eliminate all carbon pricing, repeal environmental assessment laws, and scrap an oil and gas emissions cap, prioritizing economic growth. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens advocated fossil fuel subsidy cuts and renewable energy, with the Greens pushing for a fully renewable grid.
 
What next?
Carney inherits a deeply fractured country. The Liberals were buoyed by strong showings in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver, while the Conservatives dominated in the oil-rich prairies and suburban ridings anxious about inflation and housing unaffordability. Many young Canadians see homeownership as out of reach, and food prices continue to strain household budgets.

Tensions in Alberta and Saskatchewan are especially high. Regional leaders accuse Ottawa of benefiting from prairie oil revenues while implementing environmental policies that harm their economies. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned of a looming “national unity crisis” unless her province’s concerns are addressed.

On the economic front, the tariffs are weighing on a stagnating economy. The Bank of Canada warns that a prolonged global trade war could push the country into a severe recession. On leading a minority government, the Liberals must forge alliances, likely with the NDP or Bloc Québécois, to pass legislation.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Nuha Aamina, and Nova Karun K 

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Claims to seize a South China Sea reef contended by the Philippines
On 28 April, CCTV reported that China’s coast guards seized a tiny sandbank in the South China Sea. The sandbank is part of the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. The CCTV posted images of four Chinese officers holding Chinese flags as they stood on the sand reef in the Spratly Islands. After which, the Philippines announced that they landed three soldiers on the sandbanks with the officers holding the Philippines flag. The Philippines National Task Force West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) informed that there is an illegal presence of the Chinese coastguards in the region. The statement by the NTS said: “This operation reflects the unwavering dedication and commitment of the Philippine Government to uphold the country's sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea.” For the Philippines, Sandy Cay in the Spratly Islands is a key military outpost, called Pag-asa. The White House also issued a statement where it noted that China seizing the reef is concerning and that actions like these violate international law and regional stability. 

China: Shenzhou-19 crew mission returns with taikonauts after accomplishing three spacewalks and six payload operations 
On 30 April, China’s Shenzhou-19 crewed spacecraft mission returned with taikonauts. They touched down at the Dongfeng landing site of North China, Inner Mongolia region. During the mission, they completed three spacewalks and conducted six payload operations. They also set the world record for the longest single spacewalk. China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) informed that three astronauts spent 183 days in orbit and installed a space debris protection device for the space station. They also conducted multiple cargo transfer missions and repaired both internal and external equipment.

China: Launches data relay satellite as part of Long March mission
On 27 April, China launched a data relay satellite from Xichang Satellite Launch Center. The satellite Tianlian II-05 was launched from a Long March-3B carrier rocket, and it entered planetary orbit. The satellite is China’s second-generation geosynchronous orbit data relay satellite. This satellite will be used for telemetry, command, and tracking services of manned spacecraft, spaceships, and space stations in the medium to low Earth orbit. This is part of the 572nd Long Match mission of carrier rockets.

China: Foreign Minister urges the BRICS countries to spearhead and pioneer global peace and development. 
On 28 April, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting in Brazil, Rio de Janeiro. Wang Yi during his visit and the meeting noted that today’s international landscape is going through profound changes and the cause of peace, stability and development face challenges. He noted that this is a crucial point in history, where the world and the future of humanity will be decided by the countries making the right choice. He called the BRICS countries to be a positive and constructive force on the international stage, and that they should spearhead and pioneer global peace and development. The Foreign Ministers meeting was presided over by Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, and the leaders from BRICS countries discussed the future of peace and security.

China: Develops first high-speed typhoon-proof submersible “Blue Whale”
On 30 April, SCMP reported that China launched its first high-speed uncrewed submarine. The vessel can operate underwater for 30 days, under extreme weather conditions, and even launch research rockets. The submersible is called “Blue Whale” and it is 11 meters long and weighs 12 tons. Xinhua reported that: “It can reach surface speeds of up to 36 knots – similar to a destroyer or a US Navy torpedo – and can sail hundreds of kilometers before rapidly dividing up to 60 meters underwater to avoid storms.”  Chinese Academy of Sciences Project Head Chen Dake stated that this is a milestone in marine technology and innovation.

China: Bangladesh plans to establish exclusive SEZs for Chinese firms and investments
On 28 April, the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA) informed that they plan to set up additional economic zones exclusively to be used by China. This will be part of the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara, Chattogram. This comes after China expressed its interest to increase investments in Bangladesh. This meeting by BEZA was chaired by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus. The State-owned Power Construction Corporation of China Ltd (PowerChina) will be responsible for building Chandpur Economic Zone-1. The second one, Bhola Eco-Development Economic Zone, will be built by the Chinese firm Leez Fashion Industries. The upcoming meetings will finalize and allocate land and mills to be used, and BEZA will be responsible for fast-tracking foreign investments.  Chandpur Economic Zone-1 area lacks water infrastructure and will connect with the mainland, while the Bhola Zone will attract investments.

China: China, Iran, and Russia call for diplomatic engagement based on mutual respect to resolve Iran’s nuclear issue
On 24 April, China’s representative at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) appreciated agency’s involvement in dealing with Iran’s nuclear issue. This comes after the IAEA’s Director General, Rafael Grossi, met with Russia’s representative, Mikhail Ulyanov, China’s representative Li Song, and Iran's representative, Reza Najafi. The three countries jointly called for diplomatic engagement based on mutual respect, and that this is the only way to resolve the nuclear issue. Li said: “China appreciates Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, respects its right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and supports Iran in holding dialogue with all parties, including the United States, to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests through consultation and negotiation.” 

China: To continue to work with Kenya and enhance the comprehensive strategic cooperation
On 23 April, China’s Premier Li Qiang met Kenya’s President William Ruto. Li noted that China will continue to work with Kenya and enrich the comprehensive strategic cooperation. China is also willing to develop major projects under the BRI, in areas of finance, digital economy, agricultural science, and blue economy. Li also informed that China is willing to import high-quality products from Kenya. Li urged that both sides should facilitate personnel exchanges and enhance personnel cooperation. Li said: “In the current international landscape of intertwined challenges, China and Africa, as significant forces in the Global South, should unite more closely to confront difficulties and promote development and prosperity together.” Ruto affirmed that Kenya stands by the One-China principle and that it looks forward to aligning development strategies. Ruto said: “The Kenyan side looks forward to aligning development strategies with China under the Belt and Road Initiative, tapping into cooperation potential, and promoting practical collaboration in trade, investment, transportation infrastructure, and social welfare.”

China: Azerbaijan and China establish comprehensive strategic partnership
On 23 April, China’s Premier Li Qiang met with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on his state visit to China. Li noted that they established diplomatic ties 33 years ago, and since then, China and Azerbaijan have always respected each other. They have fostered deep friendship and trust through pragmatic cooperation. Both countries announced that they will establish a comprehensive strategic partnership. He also noted that China is willing to promote traditional friendship and enhance mutual trust. China is also willing to extend its economic cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative and advance the construction of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor and establish a safe and stable China-Europe Trans-Caspian Express. Li said: “The two sides should further strengthen people-to-people exchanges, explore cooperation potentials in areas such as culture, tourism, and education, and promote mutual understanding among their peoples.” Aliyev expressed that he looks forward to high-level exchanges and to expanding bilateral trade and investments.

China: To launch its Shenzhou-20 crewed mission for conducting an automated rendezvous and docking of the radial port
On 24 April, China’s Manned Space Agency (CMSA) will launch its Shenzhou-20 crew mission from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The spacecraft will be responsible for conducting an automated rendezvous and docking of the radial port. This will be the Shenzhou-20’s fifth crew mission flight and it would be China’s 35th crewed space flight. The main objective is to complete an in-orbit crew rotation with the Shenzhou-19 crew, conduct space science, perform spacewalks, and transfer cargo. They will also receive Tianzhou-9 cargo spacecraft and the Shenzhou-21 crewed spacecraft. The crew is set to return on 29 April with Shenzhou-19.

China: Saudi Arabia and China ink MoU on nuclear safety and security
On 21 April, China and Saudi Arabia signed an MoU to further deepen their nuclear security cooperation. The MoU is on Nuclear Energy Development, Safety, and Security. The conference under the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Forum was held in Chengdu, China. The meeting was on the peaceful use of nuclear technology. The MoU was signed between China’s Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), and Saudi Arabia’s nuclear regulator. The agreement aims to strengthen cooperation in nuclear safety and non-proliferation. They also aim to develop training programs, provide technical consultation, and creation of joint working groups. The CAEA invited experts and officials from China, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. They also explored the radiation detection equipment in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. CAEA Director Shan Zhongde stated that China aims to pursue multilateral cooperation and honour commitments towards all its partners to promote international nuclear cooperation. Chief Executive Officer of the Saudi Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission, Khalid Aleissa, said: “China is a leading nuclear nation with the world's second-largest nuclear enterprise, covering the full industry value chain. It's great that China is willing to cooperate with GCC countries and Saudi Arabia. While the nuclear industry in our region is still young, it is growing rapidly. Good partnerships will ensure rapid progress.”

China: Indonesia and China affirm to further strategic mutual at China-Indonesia Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Dialogue
On 21 April, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Defense Minister Dong Jun convened the first ministerial meeting of the China-Indonesia Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Dialogue. This was attended by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono and Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin. Both countries affirmed to further strategic mutual trust and to maintain a high level of exchange. They also agreed to advance the BRI initiative and to set a benchmark for cooperation in emerging fields. Wang Yi said: “China is willing to strengthen communication and cooperation on platforms such as the United Nations, BRICS, and the G20 with Indonesia to serve as a just force for maintaining world peace and stability.” Dong noted the current international situation and called for the deepening of defense security. Sugiono said: “Indonesia will work with China to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation in fields including economy and trade, agriculture and fisheries, energy, medical care, and digital economy, enhance communication and cooperation.” China and Indonesia signed a MoU to establish a comprehensive strategic dialogue.

China: Boeing jets initially meant for China, return to the US
On 20 April, US aviation firm Boeing landed their jet back in the US, which was intended for China, amid tariff tensions between China and the US. The jet 737 MAX, to be used by China’s Xiamen Airlines, came back and landed in Seattle. This is Boeing's selling model, and was ready to be delivered and used in China. US President Donald Trump imposed 145 per cent baseline tariffs on Chinese goods; in retaliation, China imposed 125 per cent tariffs on the US. The CPC asked the airlines to pause the purchase of aircraft and other related equipment. China is responsible for 20 per cent of the world’s global demand. China ordered 130 planes from Boeing for both commercial and leasing aviation firms. 

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC THIS WEEK
Taiwan: Foreign Minister appreciates Eswatini’s support and economic cooperation
On 23 April, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung thanked Prime Minister Russell Dlamini for his steadfast diplomatic backing of Taiwan, during an official visit to Eswatini. He highlighted Dlamini’s advocacy at the UN General Assembly and COP29. Lin and Dlamini reaffirmed their countries’ “rock-solid” friendship.. Lin also reviewed results from Taiwan’s USD 1 million Women Business Start-up Microfinance Revolving Fund, which has disbursed over 500 loans to rural Eswatini women since September 2023, boosting household incomes and women’s economic independence.

Taiwan: TWNIC unveils enhanced cybersecurity measures at annual Engagement forum
On 24 April, the Taiwan Network Information Center (TWNIC) announced strategies to combat cyberattacks at its Engagement Forum. The strategies included a cybersecurity intelligence integration system with daily threat monitoring, collaboration with NetBeacon Institute to track and report Domain Name System (DNS) abuse, and partnerships with domestic and international agencies for real-time abuse tracking. TWNIC had received over 33,000 phishing site reports in 2024 and now automatically investigates domain registrations and, when abuse is confirmed, blocks offending domains and works with ISPs to cut access. TWNIC has also launched a “Green Domain” identity-verification program and a Registry Lock service to prevent unauthorized changes. TWNIC noted that phishing attacks primarily target financial and insurance firms (62.65 per cent), e-commerce platforms (16.45 per cent), and government agencies (5.25 per cent), and cited Check Point data showing Taiwan endures an average of 3,993 cyberattacks per week.

North Korea: Russia confirms North Korean troops deployment against Ukraine
On 28 April, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) and the Kremlin officially confirmed that Pyongyang dispatched troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. KCNA lauded their efforts in “liberating the Kursk area,” South Korea’s Ministry of Defence spokesperson Jeon Ha-kyou condemned the admission as “a clear violation of the U.N. Charter and Security Council resolutions” and an outright “confession of criminal activities.” The announcement signal a shift toward long-term defense cooperation and potential technology exchanges. 

South Korea: Exports grew by 3.7 per cent, says Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy
On 01 May, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy reported that in April, South Korea’s exports grew 3.7 per cent year-on-year. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase to a record April high of USD 58.2 billion. Imports fell by 2.7 per cent to USD 53.3 billion, yielding a trade surplus of USD 4.88 billion. While overall shipments to the US dropped by 6.8 per cent, largely due to weaker automobile and machinery exports. Exports to China, ASEAN, and the EU all rose, with EU shipments up by 18.4 per cent to a record USD 6.7 billion. Semiconductors led sectoral gains, jumping by 17.2 per cent to USD 11.7 billion, alongside strong growth in wireless equipment ( by 26.5 per cent), and biopharma (by 14.6 per cent). Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun said: “Despite a decrease in exports to the US, larger shipments to other major countries sustained export growth.” He pledged ongoing government support to mitigate US tariff impacts. 

Japan: Vietnam and Japan pledge to enhance bilateral trade and jointly defend rule based international order  
On 28 April, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh pledged to deepen bilateral trade ties and jointly defend “a free and open international order based on the rule of law.” Ishiba said: “The world economy is becoming more uncertain, and the impact on the Southeast Asian region is also becoming apparent.” Chinh underscored their mutual commitment to global rules. The leaders signed four cooperation agreements, including on boosting energy-transition products and semiconductor R&D. 
 
Japan: Policy chief urges Trump to reconsider tariffs
On 28 April, the policy chief of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and former defense minister, Itsunori Onodera, called on Trump to reconsider his plans for reciprocal tariffs. He told the Center for Strategic and International Studies that President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs could alienate key Southeast Asian partners and weaken regional deterrence. Speaking via interpreter, Onodera warned that “ASEAN may become more distant from the US because of the tariffs,” and urged the administration to rethink the measures to avoid damaging not only economic ties but also shared security cooperation. 

South Korea: To hold “2+2” trade talks with the US to address Trump's reciprocal tariffs , informs acting President
On 24 April, acting President Han Duck‑soo announced that Finance Minister Choi Sang‑mok and Trade Minister Ahn Duk‑geun will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in the US. The first high‑level “2+2” talks are aimed at easing US reciprocal tariffs and immediately after the joint session, Ahn and Greer will hold separate discussions, with South Korea prioritizing its national interest through focused negotiations on trade balance, shipbuilding, and liquefied natural gas. Han said: “Our government will direct all of our strength to finding a win-win solution for the two countries by holding calm and serious discussions with the US under the principle of putting top priority on our national interest.”

South Korea:  POSCO and Hyundai Motor Group collaborate to build a steel mill in the US
On 21 April, POSCO Holdings and Hyundai Motor Group signed an MOU to jointly invest in building a USD 5.8 billion, electric‑arc‑furnace steel mill in Louisiana. The mill is due for completion by 2029 and aims to supply 2.7 million tons of automotive–grade plates annually. The two conglomerates will also deepen cooperation in EV battery materials, leveraging POSCO’s lithium and cathode/anode production to support Hyundai’s target of 3.2 million electric vehicles by 2030. A Hyundai Motor Group official said: “Through our partnership with POSCO Group, we aim to expand our business opportunities in global markets such as the US while further solidifying the foundation for sustainable growth and leadership in future mobility and electrification.” POSCO Holdings President Lee Ju-tae said: “Based on the synergy between the two companies, we will be able to find ways for sustainable growth across the group's steel and battery businesses in response to global trade pressures and paradigm shifts.”

Japan: Japan and Indonesia engage in frigate co‑production talks, reports Japan Times
On 21 April, Japan Times reported that Japan and Indonesia have advanced negotiations on jointly developing and producing a customized variant of Japan’s Mogami‑class frigates for the Indonesian Navy. Under President Prabowo Subianto’s priority project, Japan proposes a USD 2.13 billion plan to build four frigates in Japan and four in Indonesia by PT PAL. This is to resolve Indonesia’s requirement to front 10-20 per cent of funding and Jakarta’s desire for full technology transfer of advanced systems, including radar and other combat suites, mirroring India’s co‑development of Japan’s Unified Complex Radio Antenna. Indonesia also considers interoperability with European naval assets, which it has already ordered. Japan’s recent relaxation of defense‑export controls and broader security cooperation, ranging from coast‑guard upgrades and joint exercises like Super Garuda Shield to potential transfers of decommissioned Sōryū‑class submarines, have also helped Indonesia, as they seek to bolster regional stability amid rising great‑power competition. The two  countries have also been intensifying joint military exercises and agreed to hold a third round of "two-plus-two" talks between their foreign and defense ministers later this year. 

Japan: Netherlands and Japan agree to deepen security and economic ties
On 21 April, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof agreed on a new action plan to bolster security and economic cooperation. They emphasized that unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force must be rejected “anywhere in the world.” They reaffirmed that the security of the Indo‑Pacific and Europe are inseparable and welcomed the Netherlands’ Indo‑Pacific engagement, highlighted by last June’s deployment of navy frigate HNLMS Tromp to Japan. Schoof said: “As trading nations, free passage (at sea) is crucial for both our countries. In this case, security and protecting economic interest go hand in hand.” They pledged to work for a just, lasting peace in Ukraine while voicing concern over Moscow–Pyongyang military ties.

Solomon Islands: Prime Minister vows a cautious approach to the commercialization of citizenship 
On 28 April, RNZ reported that the head of the Policy Unit at the Office of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, McFaddean Aoraunisaka, pledged that “citizenship is a sacred bond” and will not be commercialised in a way that undermines national sovereignty. Announced as part of Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele’s 100-day plan in September, the citizenship by investment programme is still in the legislative and regulatory design phase. The programme was introduced to boost government revenue, attract foreign investment, and stimulate economic growth. Officials are carefully weighing international concerns, particularly from Western partners and regional bodies, and will retain tight sovereign control over any future scheme. The government has warned against fraudulent solicitations and confirmed that no lawful programme is yet operational. 

New Caledonia: French Overseas Minister warns of civil war in New Caledonia if no agreement is reached
On 27 April, French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls, on his third visit in two months to New Caledonia, urged pro-independence and pro-France factions to reach a new political agreement to prevent a civil war. He urged them to “take a step towards each other” and forge a new political accord balancing “the right and aspiration to self-determination” with the territory’s “link with France.” He warned that “economic and political uncertainty can lead to a new disaster, to confrontation and civil war.” He pledged to support economic recovery, constitutional amendments, and strengthen provincial powers, and vowed to remain “as long as needed” to secure a deal.. Anti-independence Loyalists, led by Southern Province President Sonia Backès, refuse any further referendum, declaring, “we don’t want to fix the date for civil war.” Valls also expressed deep concern over New Caledonia’s fragile economy, public health services, rising poverty, and social tensions, noting that some 1,500 gendarmes remain deployed alongside local police “because any time it could flare up again.”

New Zealand: Deputy Prime Minister to visit New Caledonia amid constitutional crisis
On 01 May, RNZ reported that New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters will visit New Caledonia on 01-02 May 2025. He is expected to hold talks with French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls and local leaders amid deep divisions over independence. Valls is circulating a revised draft agreement that seeks to reconcile pro-independence and pro-France camps on self-determination, provincial powers, and a future citizenship framework tied to amendments of the French Constitution.  Peters will also meet government President Alcide Ponga and Pacific Community director-general Dr Stuart Minchin, underlining New Zealand’s commitment to supporting New Caledonia’s “pathway forward” as a Pacific Islands Forum member.

Fiji: Singapore and Fiji  reaffirm commitment to deepen cooperation amid global uncertainty
On 23 April, PINA reported that Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka met in Singapore from 21–23 April to strengthen bilateral ties. They underscored their shared status as small island states committed to international law, multilateralism, and free trade. During an official lunch on 22 April, Wong highlighted plans to expand collaboration in trade, investment, connectivity, climate resilience, and human capital development. Building on the Singapore Cooperation Programme, which has trained over 1,500 Fijian officials, both leaders expressed commitment to continue strengthening their bilateral relations. Both leaders also pledged support for Fiji’s leadership of the Pacific Islands Forum, including implementation of its Blue Pacific Continent strategy, and Singapore’s tailored Resilience and Knowledge Sharing package in areas such as climate adaptation, cybersecurity, and international law. Wong said: “Individually, our countries are small. But by working together, both bilaterally and with the rest of the Pacific, we can make an outsized impact in the areas that matter most to us.”

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Myanmar: Military dismisses the idea of independent Rohingya state in Rakhine proposed by Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami
On 02 May, the Myanmar military rejected the proposal made by Bangladesh’s Jammat-e-Islami on the creation of an independent Rohingya state in Rakhine. Jammat had made this proposal to China during a meeting with a delegate from the Communist Party . China has not yet released a response to the same. The Jammat delegation leader, Nayeb-e-Ameer Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher, released a statement on the same day on the inhumane conditions that the Rohingya were enduring, and that only humanitarian aid was not the solution. He added that Jamaat could use the support of the CPC, and its close ties with Myanamr, and they could relay the proposal. In response to the proposal, the military regime accused the Islamist Party of undermining the sovereignty of Myanmar and contacting the CPC for political gain.

ASEAN: US and ASEAN discuss partnerships and tariffs at the 37th ASEAN-US Dialogue in Cambodia 
On 21 April, the Deputy Secretary General of ASEAN, Dato Astana Abdul Aziz, who is responsible for the Political Security Community, had a meeting with the US Senior Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs Sean O’Neil, at the37th ASEAN-US Dialogue in Siem Reap, Cambodia. Both regions look forward to advancing and strengthening their relationship and discussing regional and international issues, such as the US imposed tariffs, and in the future, look forward to building a strategic partnership that would take into consideration the mutual interests and concerns of both regions.  

India: PM Modi embarks on a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia inks agreements and MoU on space, energy, science and scientific research, advanced technology, culture, and health
On 22 April, PM Narendra Modi embarked on a two-day visit to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on the invitation of his counterpart, Mohammed Bin Salman. In his departure statement, PM Modi stated how both states have “shared interest and commitment to promote regional peace, prosperity, security and stability.” As per the sources of Press Trust of India, issues linked to Hajj, including quota for Indian pilgrims, were on the discussion agenda. Both sides inked agreements and memoranda of understanding on space, energy, science and scientific research, advanced technology, culture, and health. PM Modi also disclosed how both sides were exploring joint projects in refineries and petrochemicals in an interview with Arab News. 

Bangladesh: Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus calls for inclusive development at the Earthna Summit
On 22 April, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus expressed Bangladesh’s commitment to forge a social contract of financial inclusion and empowerment of marginalized communities. Speaking at the Earth Centre for Sustainable Future (Earthna) summit hosted in Qatar, the Chief Adviser underscored the role of youth and the state in creating a future that drives tradition, justice, dignity, opportunity, and inclusion. He urged relevant actors “to explore the role of social business, financial inclusion, and microfinance in fostering sustainable development and economic opportunities for the marginalised.” He alluded to the presence of poverty as a reaction to the economic system in which resources and wealth are concentrated upwards. Touching on the risks posed by climate change, he warned that multilateralism is at risk. The impacts of climate change not only heighten geopolitical tensions but also deepen the humanitarian crisis. Separately, the chief adviser’s press secretary, Shafiqul Alam, announced the recruitment of 725 Bangladeshi soldiers by Qatar for three years. 

Nepal: US shuts down Millennium Challenge Corporation  
On 25 April, Kathmandu Post reported on the challenges posed to Nepal’s development goals due to   Trump administration’s decision to shut down the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The MCC was viewed as a counter initiative to the Belt and Road as it funds infrastructure in developing states. This follows the suspension of the US aid agency that funded the 34 projects worth PKR 46.12 billion in Nepal were permanently discontinued. While no official communication has been made by the US, “unofficially they have communicated about the elimination of the MCC Nepal Compact,” said the PM’s economic and development adviser, Yuba Raj Khatiwada. Once an official notification is issued, the Nepali government plans to request the US government to resume financial support through the MCC for two projects. 

Pakistan: Pakistan High Commission urges UK authorities to take legal action against vandalism episode
On 29 April, a Pakistan High Commission statement denounced recent attacks outside its premises on 27 and 25 April. It urged the UK authorities to take legal action against the perpetrators. The perpetrators had reportedly launched a stone-pelting attack and resorted to damaging the commission’s property. It also accused protestors of hurling anti-Pakistan and Islamophobic slogans while clashing with law enforcement personnel. The statement expressed concern over growing hostilities and reminded the UK government of its obligations under the Vienna Convention to protect diplomatic missions. Meanwhile, in a statement, UK Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer tried to allay Indian and Pakistani communities as lawmakers expressed worry over the tensions that followed the Pahalgam attack. Speaking at the parliament, he said: “These issues have long been discussed with passion on British streets and we call on sides, all community leaders, all involved to call for calm at a time of tension in the region.” 

Pakistan: Amendments to PECA negatively impacted freedom of media in Pakistan, highlights Freedom Network report
On 1 May, Dawn reported on the findings brought forward by the Freedom Network in their yearly Freedom of Expression and Media Freedom Report- 2025. As per the report, the media of Pakistan is under “existential threat.” The threat posed to the freedom of media in Pakistan was aggravated by the “amendments” in Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA). The amendments which were introduced in January 2025 empower the concerned authorities to “arrest, fine and imprison” critiques of the government. As per one of the contributors of the report, if crackdown against media professionals continue, Pakistanis would find it difficult to find “information” that they “need to know.” Among the provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ranked right at the top when it came to how “dangerous” the situation was in the “province” for media professionals. KP recorded 22 cases against media professionals which were followed by Islamabad that saw 20 cases against media professionals. Punjab stood at third with 18 cases recorded against media professionals. Balochistan reported four cases whereas there was one case reported against journalists in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. As per the report, some of the reasons why the media is under “existential threat” in Pakistan were increase in “censorship,” attacks against media professionals and the increasing difficulties for the women journalists to exist. 

Pakistan: Current DG ISI Lt General Muhammad Asim Malik assumes the position of National Security Adviser
On 1 May, Dawn reported that Lt General Muhammad Asim Malik who is currently the Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been additionally assumed position of National Security Adviser. He is expected to hold both the offices. Lt General Malik would be the first to hold both the positions simultaneously. The additional responsibility of holding the NSA office comes at a time when “tensions” with India have gone up after the terror attack in Pahalgam. The post of NSA remained empty after former NSA Moeed Yusuf resigned in 2022. NSA is one of the most crucial advisers to the PM on issues relating to “national security, foreign policy and strategic affairs.” 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Mali: Military leader Goïta to remain in power until 2030
On 30 April, the BBC reported that Mali's military leader, General Assimi Goïta, won the backing of his political allies to continue as President until 2030. The development came after a national conference organised by the regime, which was boycotted by opposition parties. Goïta had promised to hold elections in 2022 after he came to power in a coup in 2021. Amnesty International denounced the move, which it described as a "flagrant attack on the rights to freedom of expression and association."

Somalia: Bans entry of all Taiwan passport holders
On 30 April, Somalia banned the transit and entry of all Taiwanese passport holders. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused China of pressurizing Somalia into the move. The ministry responded to Somalia's move: "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has strongly protested Somalia’s action made under the instigation of China to restrict the travel freedom and safety of Taiwanese nationals and has demanded that the Somali government immediately revoke the notice." The move comes amidst strengthening ties between Taiwan and Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia unrecognised by the world.

South Africa: President Zelenskyy becomes the first Ukrainian head of state to visit South Africa after 33 years 
On 24 April, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ended his visit to Pretoria, South Africa, following Russia's attack on Kyiv. The visit marked the first by a Ukrainian head of state in 33 years. Speaking in Pretoria alongside South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Zelenskyy said: "I do not see pressure on Russia now and new sanctions packages against the aggression of the Russian Federation." Ramaphosa commented that the visit "reaffirmed" the relations between the two countries. Ukraine-South Africa relations had remained strained since 2022 after the latter refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

East Africa: Kenya to surpass Ethiopia as the largest economy in the region
On 25 April, Africanews quoted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Kenya is on track to become the largest economy in East Africa by 2025, surpassing Ethiopia. According to the IMF, Kenya's GDP would reach USD 132 billion against Ethiopia's USD 117 billion this year. Ethiopia's recent policy to devalue its currency, the birr, by more than 55 per cent brought USD 3.4 billion in IMF and USD 16.6 billion in World Bank support. However, the decision led to increased inflation and import costs. Meanwhile, the Kenyan shilling appreciated by 21 per cent in 2024, becoming the world's best-performing currency. This development was added with USD 1.5 billion Eurobond, USD 4.94 billion in diaspora remittances and a growth in agricultural and manufacturing exports. 

Madagascar:  France and Madagascar ink agreements in energy, agriculture and education sector
On 24 April, French President Emmanuel Macron began his visit to Madagascar, marking the first visit by a French leader since 2005. Macron met with Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina in the capital, Antananarivo, and signed several agreements in  energy, agriculture, and education sectors. They additionally discussed the disputes over Madagascar's group of islands that are French territory. Macron additionally announced a loan from the French Development Agency for the construction of the Volobe dam. Macron also discussed with Rajoelina on returning the remains of King Toera of the Sakalava people, beheaded by French troops in 1897 and being kept in a museum in Paris. 

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Vatican City: Pope Francis passes away  
On 21 April, Pope Francis passed away at the age of 88 at his residence- Casa Santa Marta, in the Vatican. He served as the head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State for over 12 years. He was the 266th bishop of Rome and the first pope from Latin America. Born as Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1936, he was a member of the Jesuit order and rose to prominence during the Argentine financial crisis of the early 2000s. He succeeded Pope Benedict XVI following his historic resignation in 2013. Throughout his papacy, he spoke out on key global issues, including the 2015 European migration crisis, and had urged Catholic communities to host refugee families. He also repeatedly called for peace in global conflicts, including the ongoing war in Gaza. While admired for his compassionate leadership, Pope Francis also faced criticism, particularly over his controversial comments. Following the death, European leaders had expressed profound sorrow. France’s President Emmanuel Macron stated him as a "man of humility who stood with the most vulnerable." Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz described him as a "champion of the weak, a reconciler, and a warm-hearted person."  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remarked that Pope Francis "inspired millions, far beyond the Catholic Church, with his humility and love for the less fortunate." European Parliament President Roberta Metsola praised his "love for life, hope for peace, compassion for equality, and social justice."

EU: Imposes fine on Apple and Meta for DMA violation
On 23 April, the European Commission imposed fines against Apple and Meta for violating the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). Fines are worth EUR 500 million for Apple and EUR 200 million for Meta. According to the EU, Apple breached the anti-steering law under the DMA, and Meta did not provide the choice of a service for the users to limit the exposure of their data, which violates the DMA. The EU closed Apple’s case after it followed the DMA’s law, by making it easier for consumers to select their default browser. The anti-steering law prevents developers from restricting consumers to access apps outside the App Store, The fines applied to the tech giants are likely to deepen the tensions between the US and the EU.

The UK: The Reform UK wins the local elections and the mayoral race 
On 02 May, Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK won the local English elections. The results serve as a setback for the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and the Labour Party. The party has won the Runcorn and Helsby seats in the Parliament, in northwest England, by six votes. The party narrowly won in comparison to the Labour Party. Farage told the reporters that the northwest region mainly supported the Labour Party, but now their share has dwindled. The party now holds 125 seats and has also won the mayoral race in Great Lincolnshire. The victory for the Reform party points the drop in supporters of the two main parties, and these results pose a challenge for all the parties. Reform party advocates for strict immigration control, deportation, and its investments in war issues. It has also called for Britain’s withdrawal from global environmental commitments such as the net-zero carbon emissions. 

The UK: Thousands protest in London against the court ruling on transgender community
On 19 April, protests broke out in London for the rights of transgender people. The Supreme Court of the UK ruled that the legal definition of woman as: “Woman is someone who is biologically female at birth.” The rally in central London went against the Supreme Court ruling by claiming that trans women are women, and trans rights are human rights, by waving the LGBTQ+ flags. One of the demonstrators, Eevee Zayas, who is transgender said: “The extremists will feel empowered by the court's decision, and the hate crimes against the trans community would increase.” Amnesty International added: “The judgment is disappointing and raises potentially concerning consequences for trans people, and the ruling does not change the protection trans people are afforded under the protected characteristic of gender reassignment.”

About the Authors
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah are Research Interns at NIAS. They are pursuing post graduation at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Rohini Reenum is a Doctoral Student at NIAS. Femy Francis and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Nuha Aamina and Fleur Elizabeth Philip are Research Assistants at NIAS. Nova Karun K is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

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