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TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Rizwana Banu S, M Santhiya, Merin Treesa Alex, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, and Anu Maria Joseph.
CHINA THIS WEEK
China: To retaliate against targeted UK foreign influence rules, reports The Guardian
On 5 October, The Guardian reported that China has vowed to retaliate against the UK government if it targets parts of the Chinese security apparatus. Russia and Iran have been included in the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS). Under this, anyone in the UK acting for foreign agencies will be required to declare their activities to the government or face criminal charges. The ministers in the UK, rather than targeting China as a whole, will target entities that are deemed to be of particular risk and will require extra disclosure. These entities include China’s Ministry of State Security, which is its intelligence service; the Chinese Communist Party (CCP); the United Front Work Department, which is often referred to as the international arm of the CCP; and the People’s Liberation Army, which is China’s military.
China: BYD sales to the UK increased by 880 per cent from last year, reports the BBC
On 7 October, the BBC reported that for China’s EV giant BYD, the UK has become the biggest market outside China, as its sales rose by 880 per cent in September. The company says it sold 11,271 cars in the UK last month, with the plug-in hybrid version of its Seal U sports utility vehicle (SUV) accounting for the majority of those sales. This was informed by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), which reported the sales. The UK has imposed no tariffs on Chinese EVs, as the company offers cheaper models compared to its Western counterparts. SMMT informed “UK EV sales hit a record high last month, with sales of pure battery electric vehicles rising to almost 73,000.” Despite the surge in sales, petrol and diesel cars make up more than half of the new car sales.
China: To hold a joint drill “Aman Youyi-2025” with Malaysia
On 8 October, China’s People’s Liberation Army announced that it would conduct joint drills in the South China Sea with Malaysia. The joint drill “Aman Youyi-2025” is happening for the sixth time since 2014. More than 1,000 personnel will participate in equipment training for naval vessels and helicopters. The exercise will focus on humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and maritime security. China’s Ministry of National Defense said: “The joint exercise aims to deepen practical cooperation between the Chinese and Southeast Asian militaries and enhance their capacity to jointly address non-traditional security threats and safeguard regional peace and stability.”
China: Imposes export control on rare earths, reports MOFCOM
On 9 October, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced that it will impose export controls on the sale of rare earths and related technologies. These include rare-earth mining, smelting and separation, magnetic materials, and secondary resource recycling. MOFCOM said: “In line with the country's laws and regulations, including the Export Control Law and the Regulation on the Export Control of Dual-use Items, the ministry has decided to impose export controls on rare earth-related technologies.” And that “Technologies and relevant data related to rare earth mining, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic material manufacturing, and rare earth secondary resource recycling, as well as the assembly, debugging, maintenance, repair, and upgrade of related production lines are prohibited from export without permission.” This provision aims to safeguard national security, and it is expected that China will also block exports to foreign arms firms and semiconductor industries.
China: Sanctions fourteen US firms under national security threat, reports SCMP”
On 9 October, SCMP reported that China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on Western companies and institutions amid trade tensions with the US. The ministry said: “Fourteen entities, mostly headquartered in the US, were added to Beijing’s unreliable entity list on Thursday, banning them from trade and investment in China.” Under the sanction, China is prohibited from engaging in any transactions with its firms, particularly in data sharing and providing sensitive information. This comes right after China announced that they are imposing export control on the sale of rare earth materials and technologies. The Ministry also said: “have engaged in so-called military-technical cooperation with Taiwan, made malicious remarks about China, and assisted foreign governments in suppressing Chinese companies.”
EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Taiwan: President Lai unveils plans for “T-Dome” air defence system to counter Beijing’s threat
On 10 October, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te unveiled plans for the "T-Dome" air defence system during his National Day speech in Taipei. This dome aims to protect the island against escalating threats from China. The multi-layered "T-Dome" will integrate advanced detection and interception capabilities to create a robust safety net for citizens, countering Beijing's superior arsenal of stealth jets, carriers, and missiles. President Lia Ching-te emphasized the urgency, stating, "The increase in defence spending has a purpose; it is a clear necessity to counter enemy threats and a driving force for developing our defence industries." The Taiwanese government will propose a special military budget by year-end to accelerate construction, amid China's rejection of President Lai as a "separatist" and ongoing cross-strait tensions. Beijing is yet to respond to the statement from President Lai.
SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Myanmar: Military strike kills 20 civilians at anti-coup festival in Sagaing
On 8 October, in the twilight fields of Chaung-U township, Sagaing region, at least 20 civilians were killed on 6 October, when explosives were dropped by a motorised paraglider, also known as a paramotor. Local resistance groups, Amnesty International, and the shadow National Unity Government confirmed the toll, branding it "mass murder." According to Ko Thant, an information officer for the Chaung-U Township People's Defence Force, the military has used paramotors to bomb this area approximately six times before this latest incident. This marks the seventh such paramotor strike in the area since December 2024, amid escalating airstrikes, 1,134 in early 2025 alone, as the junta's civil war rages on.
SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
India: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visits Canberra
On 9 October, during the two-day visit to Australia, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held talks with his Australian counterpart Richard Marles on further expanding bilateral strategic ties. The two leaders reviewed cooperation across cyber defence, maritime domains, and regional challenges, reaffirming the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Both countries have signed a pact for mutual submarine rescue operations, enhancing maritime security amid Indo-Pacific tensions. The leaders also pledged deeper ties in defence technology and industry, with India proposing to service Australian naval vessels in its shipyards. Marles said, "All of that is taking our high-level strategic alignment and taking this to a much deeper operational level." He emphasised that the two defence forces would increase information sharing. Rajnath Singh wrote on X, “Had a productive meeting with Australia’s Deputy PM & Defence Minister. We reviewed the full spectrum of India-Australia defence cooperation, including defence industry, cyber defence, maritime security, and regional challenges.”
MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
Syria: Ceasefire announced between Syrian security forces and Kurdish fighters
On 7 October, Al Jazeera reported that after the death of one person and injuries to several others in overnight violence that broke out in Aleppo between the Syrian security forces and Kurdish fighters, the Syrian government has announced a ceasefire. The ceasefire was announced by Syria’s minister of Defence, Murhaf Abu Qasra who said that both sides had “agreed on a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts and military positions in northern and northeastern Syria.” The news was confirmed by the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi. According to the government run news agency SANA, clashes had occurred following the SDF’s attack on checkpoints in the city. The SDF has denied the allegations and blamed the government of “violent aggression.”
Israel: Parliament approves first phase of Gaza ceasefire
On 10 October, Israel’s parliament approved the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal in the first phase of the 20-point peace plan. Within the next 24 hours, Israeli forces are to pull back to predetermined positions to reduce contact with Gaza’s civilian population. This redeployment moves troops away from several major urban centres while still keeping control over roughly half of the enclave. The military has stated that its forces were “adjusting their operational positions” inside Gaza. The agreement also says that within 72 hours of the military's redeployment, all 48 hostages are to be released from the Gaza Strip and handed over to Israeli security forces. Following the hostage release, Israel will release 250 Palestinians convicted or suspected of security crimes, as well as 1,700 adults and 22 minors detained in Gaza during the war, and the bodies of 360 fighters. Six hundred trucks of humanitarian aid, mostly food, medical equipment, shelter equipment, fuel and cooking gas, and equipment needed to fix damaged infrastructure, will be allowed to enter Gaza and permitted to travel freely between north and south. Residents of Gaza will also be allowed to leave Gaza to Egypt through the Rafah crossing in coordination with Egypt, subject to Israeli approval and under the supervision of an EU delegation, stated a security official. The return of residents through the crossing will also be carried out with Israel’s approval and after a mechanism is agreed upon between Israel and Egypt. The exiled Gaza chief of Hamas, Khalil Al-Hayya, said he had received guarantees from the United States and other mediators that the war was over.
AFRICA THIS WEEK
Eswatini: Receives US deportees despite legal challenge and democratic concerns
On 7 October, Eswatini received ten deportees from the US under a bilateral agreement, despite ongoing legal opposition from civil society groups. The deal allows Eswatini to accept up to 160 deportees in exchange for USD 5.1 million to enhance border management. However, the deal is being criticized for bypassing parliamentary approval and undermining democratic norms. Human rights groups and MPs have raised concerns over transparency and executive overreach.
Madagascar: President appoints army general Zafisambo as Prime Minister amidst ongoing protests
On 7 October, President Andry Rajoelina named General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as Madagascar’s new prime minister following the dismissal of his cabinet amid countrywide protests. Zafisambo, trained in Madagascar and France, assumed office as the Gen Z-led demonstrations over water and electricity shortages entered a third week. Meanwhile, protesters continue to demand President Rajoelina’s resignation, which he has refused, alleging that the opposition is trying to depose him.
Africa: World Bank upgrades Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast to 3.8 per cent
On 8 October, the World Bank upgraded Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2025 growth forecast from 3.5 per cent to 3.8 per cent, citing declining inflation and improved trade performance. The Africa’s Pulse report projects average growth of 4.4 per cent over the next two years, with key economies of Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Ivory Coast driving the rebound. According to the report, inflation is expected to stabilize around four per cent by 2026. However, concerns persist over high debt, unemployment, and trade uncertainty following the expiry of AGOA and evolving US policies.
EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns less than a day after announcing his cabinet
On 6 October, France's Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned less than a day after his cabinet was announced, stating the absence of political conditions necessary to govern effectively. His departure came just 26 days after his appointment following François Bayrou’s government collapse. Lecornu’s cabinet, largely unchanged from Bayrou’s, faced strong opposition in the National Assembly, where parties warned of voting it down. Critics, including Marine Le Pen of the National Rally, called for early elections. “Macron has put the country in an extremely difficult position," she added. Lecornu pointed to the “partisan appetites” of parties unwilling to compromise. France’s political instability has continued since President Macron’s July 2024 snap elections that produced a fragmented parliament. Previous governments under Michel Barnier and Bayrou also fell due to failed budgets and parliamentary deadlocks. Ongoing fiscal challenges add to the turmoil, with France’s 2024 deficit at 5.8 per cent of GDP and national debt at 114 per cent, among the eurozone’s highest. Paris stock markets declined sharply following Lecornu’s unexpected resignation.
Russia: Duma approves withdrawal from key agreement on disposal of weapon-grade plutonium stockpiles
On 8 October, Russia's lower house of parliament approved the decision to withdraw from the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), signed in 2000. A Russian note on the legislation withdrawing from the pact stated that “the United States has taken several new anti-Russian steps that fundamentally change the strategic balance that prevailed at the time of the Agreement and create additional threats to strategic stability." The act was enforced in 2011 and committed both the US and Russia to dispose of at least 34 tonnes of weapons-grade plutonium each, from the vast stockpiles leftover from the Cold War. The PMDA sought the safe disposal of weapons-grade plutonium by converting it into safer forms like mixed oxide (MOX) fuel or by irradiating plutonium in fast-neutron reactors for electricity production. Moscow had previously suspended the implementation of the agreement in 2016, citing US sanctions against Russia as unfriendly, NATO’s expansion, and the modifications in the US’s plutonium disposal mechanisms. Russia had highlighted that the US violated the agreement by unilaterally modifying the method by simply diluting the plutonium and disposing of it.
AMERICAS THIS WEEK
US and Brazil: President Trump to meet President Lula in person after a "very good" call
On 6 October, US President Donald Trump, in a statement on Truth Social, agreed to meet Brazil's President Lula da Silva in person after a "very good" telephone call. President Trump stated that the discussion involved "many things" but was "mostly focused" on economic and trade matters, asserting that both countries will have "further discussions" and will "get together in the not too distant future, both in Brazil and the United States." According to the Brazilian government, during the call, President Trump designated Secretary of State Marco Rubio to continue tariff negotiations with Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. This development comes after President Trump increased tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10 per cent to 50 per cent, citing the trial and conviction of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro.
US and Canada: PM Carney to meet President Trump
On 7 October, according to media reports, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit the White House in Washington, DC, to meet US President Donald Trump. PM Carney is expected to discuss various issues, with a focus on US tariffs on Canadian goods in accordance with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) exemptions. Previously, on 6 October, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt had revealed that "trade will be a topic of discussion" during PM Carney's visit, along with "all of the other issues that are facing both Canada and the United States." Further, President Trump speculated that PM Carney will "ask about tariffs," highlighting that "a lot of companies from Canada are moving into the United States." This development follows President Trump's imposition of significant sector-specific tariffs on Canadian goods. In response, PM Carney terminated a Digital Services Tax aimed at US tech companies and withdrew a majority of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the US.
Venezuela: Maria Corina Machado, wins Nobel Peace Prize 2025
On 10 October, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee stated. Machado, a 58-year-old industrial engineer, won a decisive victory in Venezuela’s 2023 opposition primary election, drawing widespread public support. However, she was barred from running against President Nicolás Maduro in the 2024 election and subsequently went into hiding. The electoral authority declared Maduro the winner, though no detailed tallies were released, in the backdrop of stark economic and social crises. His 12-year rule is viewed by many nations as illegitimate, reported the BBC. The elections were widely rejected internationally as neither free nor fair, and led to nationwide protests. Despite being barred, Machado united the divided opposition behind Edmundo González. The government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, despite polling data showing González’s landslide victory.
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About the Authors
Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Rohini Reenum is a Doctoral Student at NIAS. Rizwana Banu S is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College. Merin Treesa Alex is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. M Santhiya is from the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
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