GP Team

The World This Week #279-281, Vol. 6 No. 33-35, 13 October 2024
 

Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Advik S Mohan, and Sim V Jain

Quad Summit 2024: The Wilmington Declaration 
Femy Francis

What happened?
On 21 September, US President Joe Biden hosted the fourth in-person Quad Leaders Summit in Delaware. He was joined by the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. Joe Biden’s statements on Quad focused on the role of China in the region and the overarching threat it poses all the while asserting that: “Quad is here to stay.” Australian Prime Minister said: “A stronger Quad means a stronger Australia.” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said: “It is ever more important for us, the Quad, who share values such as freedom and democracy, to continue demonstrating our firm commitment to our common vision of the free and open Indo-Pacific.” India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed the sentiments and said: “Our message is clear. Quad is here to stay, to assist, to partner and to complement.”

The summit saw the Wilmington Declaration highlighting the cooperation between Quad countries on common development and concerns. The focus is on the sharing and exchange of technology and information for the development of the Indo-Pacific region. Some of the initiatives include the Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission, Open Radio Access Network, and the Quad Cancer Moonshot initiative. They also committed to investing USD 2 million for Fiji solar projects, USD 500,000 worth each for 50 Quad scholarships, and they also pledged USD 5 million for humanitarian assistance. They launched the Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI), Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network, and Quad Ports of the Future Partnership among others. 

What is the background?
First, a background to the Quad. The idea started following the December 2004 tsunami leading to the partnership between the four countries. In the subsequent years, efforts were made by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to institutionalize the collaboration. In 2017, Japan invited the three other Quad countries to form a joint working group at the bylines of the ASEAN summit that year. Two years after that the first ministerial-level meeting took place. Since the inception of Quad, the leaders have met annually. 
 
Second, expanding areas of focus. The focus of Quad has been expanding issues from health crisis to disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. Quad countries focused on delivering more than 400 million COVID vaccines in the Indo-Pacific. There are joint groups established like the Quad Health Security Partnership to make the exchanges of medical knowledge and supplies. With the growing climate concern and the need for speedy relief measures, Quad focuses on establishing Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief in the Indo-Pacific. The aim is to coordinate rapidly in the face of natural disasters so that the Quad countries can engage in rapid response.

Third,  maritime engagement. In 2022, the Quad announced the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). This collaboration includes maritime scientific exchange but is not limited to it. This year's initiative focuses on securing the waters, enforcing the law, and deterring unlawful behavior by launching the MAITRI program. 

Fourth, emphasis on access to critical and emerging technologies, data breaches, and the security threats.  Quad countries have decided to ally with trusted countries to boost the development of critical technology and to have a secure and safe exchange of tech and data. To cater to this, they want to encourage indigenous companies and firms to collaborate with other Quad countries. 

Fifth, the China factor. Beijing has increased its regional influence by investing in the Indian neighbourhood and the Pacific Island countries through BRI. All of the Indian neighbours Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, and Maldives have sizeable investments by China. In recent months, the Pacific Island countries have pivoted towards China by denouncing their diplomacy with Taiwan. China has seeped itself in the region and its presence has posed a critical threat to the Quad countries.

What does it mean? 
First, Quad is “here to stay,” as the leaders asserted during the recent summit. There is a conscious effort to expand the areas of focus and also deepen cooperation in certain sectors. The challenge is to take this expansion and deepening process forward after the forthcoming US Presidential elections.

Second, the Quad responses to China. While Biden openly admitted that China is “testing us” how the Quad would respond to the “China testing” will remain an individual and collective challenge. The Wilmington Declaration though did not mention China directly but many initiatives were proposed and hinted at it, the larger discourse of the Quad leaders surrounded the China threat in the region. It has made deterring China in the Indo-Pacific region its priority by disengaging with China all the while increasing Quad collaboration. 

Third, increasing India’s role within the Quad. This year's declaration and summit showcased a revitalized role that India will play in the Indo-Pacific. This can be noted by the number of initiatives India is directly involved in as there has been a proportional rise from the previous years. India will host the Quad Regional Ports and Transportation Conference 2025 in Mumbai and the Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific among others. 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the US
Neha Tresa George

What happened?
On 23 September, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy started his visit to the US. He began by visiting the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania dedicated to meet the requirements of Ukraine

On 25 September, Zelenskyy addressed the United Nations General Assembly. He said: "There can be no just peace without Ukraine." He recalled the Russian offensive which started in 2022 and warned against a possible nuclear disaster in Ukraine. In response to Zelenskyy's continuous bid for the approval of long-range weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin set out an updated nuclear doctrine. He said: "The doctrine would clearly set the conditions for Russia to transition to using nuclear weapons.”

On 26 September, the G7+ Ukraine meeting held in New York adopted a "Joint Declaration of Support for Recovery and Reconstruction of Ukraine." It was attended by more than 30 countries and the EU. In his speech, US President Joe Biden said: "I am determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in its fight for survival." After the meeting, Zelenskyy met Biden and presented the "Plan of Victory" to him. They discussed on diplomatic, economic, and military aspects of the Plan and decided to hold consultations in the future. Biden announced an additional military package of USD 8 billion. Zelenskyy also presented the Victory Plan to the Presidential candidates of US- Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

On 27 September, in his recent video address to Ukrainians, he assured that the key issues in Ukraine were being considered by the partner countries.
 
What is the background?
First, Zelenskyy's demand for military and political support. To counter Russia's offensive at the military front, Zelenskyy wants military and political support from the West. Through the EU Assistance to Ukraine, the member states have made available up to USD 126 billion as aid. The G7 leaders agreed to USD 50 billion loan with frozen Russian assets. Biden has sanctioned the long-delayed "Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act" which allocated around USD 62 to aid the Ukrainian fighters. Through his newly proposed "Plan of Victory," Zelenskyy is trying to push for more aid, approval of long-range weapons along and further sanctions on Russia. 

Second, the military stalemate with Russia. Zelenskyy's visit to the US came against the backdrop of a military stalemate of the war since the Kursk incursion launched by Ukraine. Although Ukraine claims the Kursk incursion to be successful, it has failed to fulfill its two major objectives. First, curbing Russia's offensive in the eastern Ukraine of Donbas front, particularly the strategic cities of Pokrovsk and Donetsk oblast. Second, pressurising Russia to end the war and gain significant leverage for negotiation and peace talks. Meanwhile, Russia's counteroffensive in the Kursk region led to the recapture of territories and settlements. According to a recent report of ISW, none of the Russian and Ukrainian assaults in the Kursk region recently resulted in any advances in the area, leading to a deadlock in the war. 

Third, Putin’s statements on nuclear weapons. Putin has proposed three changes to the Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which was adopted in 2020. First, any aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state would be considered a threat. This directly referred to Ukraine and its continuous bid to use the western-long-range weapons inside the Russian territory. Second, any reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons like strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones and hypersonic crossing into Russian territory was considered a threat. This proposes a reduction in the nuclear threshold. Third, Russia's nuclear deterrent is to be used in case of any attack against Belarus, one of its key allies. 

What does it mean? 
First, Ukraine's increasing dependence on the West. In his week-long meeting in the US, Zelenskyy met with all the partner countries and institutions catering support to Ukraine. This points out Ukraine's increasing dependence on the west for military and humanitarian assistance, energy supply and particularly over the usage of Western long-range weapons in the war.

Second, the chances of escalation of the war. Russia's upgraded nuclear doctrine poses a threat of escalation of the war. This is because it has limited the nuclear threshold to the usage of drones referring to the large-scale drone attacks from Ukraine. The usage of Western-long-range weapons could also change the course of war.

Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party Elections 
Advik S Mohan

What happened?
On 27 September, there was an election for the post of President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan. Shigeru Ishiba, former Minister of Defence of Japan won the same; he received 215 votes against 194 votes for his sole opponent, the Minister of State for Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi. Due to the LDP holding a majority in the Diet, Ishiba will become the next Prime Minister of Japan.

Following his victory, Ishiba said “I will do the utmost to believe in the people, to speak the trust with courage and sincerity, and to make this country a safe and secure place where everyone can live with a smile on their face once again.” 

What is the background?
First, a brief background to the LDP. The party was formed in 1955 with the support of the US, and has always been a large tent party, accommodating individuals from different ideologies such as liberals, centrists, and right-wing nationalists. The party has been characterized by different factions with competing viewpoints. The LDP has lost a general election only twice - in 1993 after the Japanese asset price bubble burst and in 2009 after a constant list of political scandals. The LDP’s adaptability and ability to accommodate different views have allowed it to remain in power for 65 of the past 69 years. However, recent scandals have placed factions under scrutiny. Members from the largest faction of the party, the conservative Seiwa faction to which the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe and Kishida and Takaichi belonged, faced allegations of links to the Unification Church and underreporting over JPY 600 million of campaign funds and storing them in slush funds. In February 2024, the Seiwa faction dissolved itself. Public disgust over the scandals forced several other factions to dissolve itself. After the scandals, Kishida stated the culture of separate factions needed to end. Ishiba’s portrayal of himself as an outsider distinct from the conservative factions is considered as a reason behind his victory.

Second, a background to recent public disapproval and Kishida’s resignation. On 14 August, Ishiba’s predecessor Fumio Kishida announced his resignation. There was public anger against the government over scandals such as underreporting of public funding and ties to the Unification Church, alongside a stagnant economy. The Prime Minister had an approval rating of only 28 per cent in July 2024.The successive scandals, alongside the failure to revitalize the economy have downgraded opinions about the LDP. The The constantly low approval ratings were a key reason behind Kishida’s resignation.

Third, a brief note on the recent elections and its candidates. Ishiba projected himself as a liberal, supporting a shift towards renewable energy from nuclear. He also supported having female emperors and revising the civil code which makes it compulsory for married couples to adopt one of their surnames. Ishiba also promised wage increases to counter inflation, and making Japan more self-reliant in its defence. Meanwhile, Takaichi took a conservative stance, supporting visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine and revising the pacificist constitution. Takaichi also promised ‘strategic spending’ to improve the economy. Another prominent candidate was the former Minister of the Environment, Shinjiro Koizumi who promised increasing wages for employees at small companies and financial support for low-income households. 

What does it mean? 
First, the challenges facing Japan politics, the LDP and the opposition. The party faces low approval ratings, with a Jiji Press opinion poll in July showing the Cabinet had an approval rating of only 15.5 per cent. This is the lowest approval rating for the LDP, since its return to power in 2012. However, the party is still unlikely to lose power, as the opposition parties - the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) have been unable to capitalize on the missteps of the LDP. They remain fragmented and weak. In the Jiji Press survey, the CDPJ and the JIP had approval ratings below 4 per cent. Opposition parties have been accused of merely following the positions of the LDP on important issues like changing the pacifist constitution. Japan is also facing voter apathy, with total voter turnout at the last four general elections having failed to reach 60 per cent. Amongst the 18-30 age group, the turnout in the last election was 37 per cent. Due to the weakness of the opposition and voter apathy, the LDP is not expected to lose its dominant position despite the recent scandals.

Second, the challenges to Ishiba. The new LDP president has a reputation for being an unorthodox maverick who has defied the party leadership previously. Ishiba went against the official party line on matters like the legalization of same-sex marriage, moving towards renewable energy and revising the civil code. This made him unpopular amongst the party leadership, but endeared him with the ordinary grassroots workers. However, the conservative section of the LDP to which Takaichi and Kishida belong still retains influence and power within the party. In order to keep his party together and maintain his position, Ishiba will need to be pragmatic and make compromises with his rivals within the LDP.

Modi’s visit to the US
Sim V Jain

What happened?
On 21 September, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi visited the US. During the visit, he took part in the fourth Quad Leaders’ Summit in Wilmington, which was hosted by the President of the US, Joe Biden.    
                                                                                                                             
Prime Minister Modi addressed a large gathering of the Indian community at an event in New York; he spoke about his vision for Viksit Bharat by 2047, plans to open two new Indian consulates in Boston and Los Angeles,  and a Thiruvalluvar Chair of Tamil studies in the University of Houston. He referred to the Indian diaspora, with its strong convening strength, to play a crucial role in fostering closer ties between India and the US.

Modi met Biden for bilateral talks ahead of QUAD summit. The leaders discussed issues related to defence cooperation, semiconductors and global south. The bilateral talks also strengthened defence partnership with India purchasing 31 MQ-9B Predator drones. According to a joint fact sheet, “President Biden welcomed the progress towards India’s purchase which will enhance the intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities of India’s armed forces across all domains.”

What is the background?
First, growing India- US ties. The relationship is growing rapidly; twenty-five years ago there were US sanctions on India and today US is India’s largest trading partner. India has become a major defence partner, receiving advanced US technology. The US supports India's global aspirations and cooperation has increased in nuclear energy, trade, and regional security, making India a key US partner in the Indo-Pacific. Both countries want to reduce their dependency on China.

Second, increasing role of Science and Technology in the bilateral ties. The India-US Science and Technology partnership has grown remarkably, fostering cutting-edge innovation and collaboration. Key areas of collaboration include artificial intelligence, renewable energy, space exploration, and healthcare. The US-India Artificial Intelligence (AI) Initiative promotes joint research in AI. President Biden and Prime Minister Modi hailed a watershed arrangement to establish a new semiconductor fabrication plant. Fab, to be known as Shakti, is India’s first ever national security semiconductor fabrication plant. Fab will focus on advanced sensing, communication and high-voltage power electronics for national security. It will produce chips for the military of both countries.  

Third, India, US and the Quad. On Quad, the US and India use bilateral engagements to support each other’s national interests. For the US, having India as a key partner in the QUAD helps counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. For India, Quad provide a chance to enhance its own security and influence in the region. Working closely with the US, India gains access to advanced military, technology and support. 

What does it mean? 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's US visit has reinforced India's growing global stature, strengthening ties with the US and Quad nations. Significant advancements in science, technology, and defence cooperation, including the Shakti semi-conductor fabrication plant and joint AI initiatives, position India as a key player in the global tech landscape.

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Samrudhi Pathak, Sachin Aravind, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Neha Tresa George and Advik S Mohan

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: High-orbit internet services satellite launched
On 11 October, Global Times reported that China launched a new high-orbit internet services satellite. It was launched by the Long March-3B carrier rocket from the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre in Sichuan Province. This was China’s third high-orbit internet services satellite.

Taiwan: President Lai Ching-te promises to strengthen national defence 
On 10 October, Taiwan News reported on President Lai Ching-te promising to strengthen the country’s resilience through the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. Lai added that he would bolster national defence and protect the well-being of the Taiwanese. He said: “These three committees are interconnected and closely related to national resilience. The aim is to develop better responses to challenges and foster closer cooperation with the international community. Taiwan is also continuing to diversify green energy sources and develop energy technologies to achieve the global goal of net zero by 2050.” He added that Taiwan would uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

China: Premier Li Qiang affirms support for ASEAN
On 10 October, CGTN quoted Chinese Premier Li Qiang on China’s support to the ASEAN. Li said that the Chinese government support a central position for ASEAN in regional cooperation and a greater role for the bloc in international affairs. He informed that China was ready to have constructive discussions with all the relevant parties on regional cooperative issues and contribute towards making Southeast Asia a platform for global development. His remarks came during a visit to Laos at the invitation of the Prime Minister of Laos and the current chair of ASEAN, Sonexay Siphandone.

China: MoU with Serbia on modernization of airport
On 10 October, CGTN reported that Serbia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the China Shandong International Economic & Technical Cooperation Group. The project relates to the second phase of construction and modernization of the Constantine the Great Airport in the Serbian city of Nis. The Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure of Serbia, Goran Vesic, stated that the project and its features, including the rehabilitation of the airport runway, expansion of the aircraft parking platform, construction of new taxiways, and construction of a new control tower, would ensure its complete operational capacity. China’s Ambassador to Serbia, Li Ming, stated that airport modernization would improve passenger traffic and cooperation between China and Serbia. The airport modernization is expected to be completed by 2027, according to the Ministry of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure of Serbia.

China: Comprehensive Economic Stimulus Plan for 2024 unveiled
On 08 October, the Chinese government revealed a set of strong policies for the economy to reach its target growth in 2024. Officials expressed confidence in reaching the annual goal of around five per cent growth, citing recent improvements in market sentiment, manufacturing, and consumption. The economy has grown by five per cent in the first half of 2023. For the third quarter, growth is expected between 4.6 per cent and 4.8 per cent. Key measures include accelerating investment projects of about 200 billion yuan, focusing on revitalising cities and infrastructure. The government will continue to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds and encourage local governments to make all efforts to use special bonds for project construction. The government further promised to ensure strict regulation of business enforcement to avoid unlawful practices such as arbitrary fines and excess inspections, making the environment suitable for business.

China: Plans for visa-free entry for Slovenians
On 26 September, CGTN reported on China’s plans to grant visa-free entry to Slovenian citizens. China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi announced the plan after a meeting with Slovenia’s Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Tanja Fajon. Wang stated that the move aimed to promote friendly exchanges between China and Slovenia. He expressed China’s willingness to work with Slovenia to promote multilateralism and international peace and security. Meanwhile, Fajon stated that Slovenia was looking forward to collaborating with China in its role as rotating chair of the UN Security Council. 

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
South Korea: Elected to the UN Human Rights Council 
On 09 October, the UN General Assembly elected South Korea to the 2025-2027 term of the UNHRC through a direct and secret ballot at the body headquarters for the sixth time. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea stated that this was an outcome of the active and across-the-board diplomacy practised by South Korea The foreign ministry informed that the government would actively participate in discussions about international human rights issues, such as on North Korea, and the endeavours of the international community to protect and enhance human rights. 

Japan: Foreign minister affirms strategic ties with China
On 10 October, The Japan News reported that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Takeshi Iwaya, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Wang Yi discussed and reaffirmed the policy of promoting the mutually beneficial strategic relationship between China and Japan. Iwaya stated that he would work to allow the citizens of both Japan and China to benefit from the development of bilateral ties. Iwaya also expressed his concerns over Chinese military activities and requested China to allow the import of Japanese fishery products. Meanwhile, Wang stated the new government in Japan was actively showing its intentions towards promoting stable bilateral relations.

Kiribati: Presidential candidates release manifestos 
On 10 October, RNZ reported that the four presidential candidates of Kiribati released their political manifestos. The current President of Kiribati, Taneti Maamau, is considered to have the highest chance of winning the election. Maamau has made several promises in his manifesto including better infrastructure, improving the livelihoods of the citizens, and tax cuts. It includes an increased number of parliamentarians for outer islands, setting up more embassies globally, and increasing assistance in combating climate change. The long-term vision and mission for Kiribati stated in Maamau’s manifesto is a prosperous, peaceful, and healthy development that does not leave any citizen behind. According to the new law in Kiribati, the successful candidate will be held accountable to the Electoral Office for commitments made during the electoral process.

Japan: Foreign minister meets Chinese counterpart in New York; discusses bilateral ties amidst regional tensions
On 23 September, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in New York to discuss the state of their countries’ relations. Wang stressed that both countries should increase their strategic partnership. Meanwhile, Kamikawa emphasised the importance of communication in all fields including resolving the Fukushima water discharge issue. In response, Wang called on Japan to honour its commitment to international monitoring of the discharge of water from Fukushima. Both ministers agreed that people-to-people interactions are important to enhance bilateral ties. 

South Korea: Economic growth at 2.5 per cent, reports Asian Development Bank 
On 25 September, The Korea Times quoted the South Korean Ministry of Economy and Finance: “The Asian Development Bank (ADB) kept its outlook for Korea's economic growth this year at 2.5 per cent given strong exports.” The Manila-based bank upheld the growth projection for 2025 at 2.3 per cent on par with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Korea. Additionally, the exports hiked 11.4 per cent this year to USD 57.9 billion in August. The inflation forecast for this year is unchanged at 2.5 per cent and two per cent for next year. 

Kiribati: Democracy in danger as ruling party tightens control, comments a RNZ editorial
On 24 September, an editorial in RNZ commented that Kiribati’s political situation is undergoing an alarming shift with opposition leader Tessie Lambourne warning about one-party rule. The upcoming presidential election has acquired democratic credibility by featuring all four contestants from the ruling Tobwaan Kiribati Party (TKP). Criticising this development, Lambourne who is prohibited from contesting, said: "It seems that Kiribati is now a one-party state, and her people are suffering as a result.” She highlighted the deterioration of basic services and institutions under the TKP’s eight years, stating that it was a “sad time for Kiribati and her people.” The parliamentary manoeuvre denied voters a diverse choice, with Lambourne asserting that the Maneaba, not the citizens, predetermined the next Beretitenti. This unprecedented situation raises serious questions about the future of the democracy and governance that Kiribati has known during its 45 years of independence. 

Fiji: New Foreign Policy White Paper highlight “Ocean of Peace” initiative
On 23 September, Fiji introduced its inaugural Foreign Policy White Paper. Addressing the ceremony, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka highlighted the document’s relevance in answering complex foreign policy challenges facing Fiji and the “Ocean of Peace” initiative. Rabuka spoke about the shift from a US-led order to a multipolar world. He talked about rising US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific, noting that “the stakes are high.” The document has eight chapters and examines the necessary dimensions, including sovereignty, security, climate change, and bilateral relationships. This will chart Fiji’s foreign policy direction and intricate interplay between domestic and international affairs. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Laos: ASEAN Summit held for two days; leaders take steps to bolster ties
On 10 October, the 44th and 45th ASEAN summit was held in Vientiane, Laos. It was attended by the heads of government and top diplomats from the ten-member association along with representatives from the US, China, Japan and Russia. According to ASEAN’s Secretary General Kao Him Hourn, a former Cambodian diplomat, ASEAN plays a “stabilizing force” in Southeast Asia. He argued that the group had constantly called for peace, diplomacy and economic cooperation. He added that member countries were increasingly integrated through trade agreements and partnerships with ASEAN attracting USD 230 billion investments in 2023. This came after the group had made little progress in resolving the Myanmar conflict with its “Five Point Consensus” peace plan. However, he assured that ASEAN will constantly discuss the issue with Myanmar. 

As part of the ASEAN-China summit, both parties upgraded their 2010 free trade agreement through friendly business initiatives and incentives. According to Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong: “This upgrade to the FTA is an important move, especially in this time of growing protectionism in the world.” The agreement provides for upgraded rules for customs procedures, supply chain connectivity, and competition covering digital and green economies. 

Speaking at the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) summit which includes China, Japan and South Korea, Prime Minister Wong called for collective cooperation in areas like supply chain, digital and green fronts for strengthening their ties. Following that, ASEAN and South Korea expanded their ties through a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and promised to upgrade the existing ASEAN-Korea Free Trade area. Wong also pointed out digital domains and AI as new areas for collaboration with Japan. 

Nepal: Oli meets India’s Prime Minister Modi in New York; discusses renewal of bilateral ties
On 23 September, Nepal and India agreed to renew and reactivate bilateral mechanisms to resolve issues. The development comes following the meeting between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Oli in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Both countries have shared interests in the areas of trade and transit, border and boundary, energy cooperation, and cooperation in the fields of water resources, inundation, security, connectivity, and infrastructure. According to a Nepali diplomat: “Some issues that Nepal wanted to discuss with the Indian side did not come up categorically as this is a sideline meeting.” 

Maldives: Foreign Minister signs BBNJ and Minamata Convention
On 24 September, Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer issued the Instrument of Ratification for the Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement) and the Instrument of Accession for the Minamata Convention on Mercury on behalf of the Maldives. The BBJN Agreement was formulated to enable the conservation, preservation, and sustainable utilization of the biodiversity and territorial waters, and safeguard marine ecosystems of the High Seas. Meanwhile, the Minamata Convention on Mercury aims to protect the environment and humans from anthropogenic emissions and releases of toxic heavy metals. It regulates the lifecycle of mercury, in terms of its supply, trade, use, emissions, releases, storage, and management of waste and contaminated sites.

Sri Lanka: SJB and UNP to form alliance; Wickremesinghe will not compete for general elections
On 25 September, despite Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa claiming that his party would not ally with the United National Party (UNP) to contest the general election, a decision to form a grand alliance was announced during a press conference. UNP members, deputy leader Ruwan Wijewardene, assistant leaders Akila Viraj Kariyawasam and Rajitha Senaratne announced that former President Ranil Wickremesinghe will not be contesting in the general elections to keep up with the UNP tradition where neither former President J R Jayewardene nor did the late President DB Wijetunga contest after their retirement.

India: Foreign Minister clarifies approach towards Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
On 25 September, during a conversation at Asia Society in New York, India’s Minister of Foreign Affairs S Jaishankar was asked about the country’s “non-reciprocal” approach to its neighbours and the treatment of minorities in Bangladesh. He responded that in Sri Lanka, India stepped in without a political conditionality or agenda at a time when no one did and it helped stabilise the island's economy. He said: "At the end of the day, each one of our neighbours will have their own dynamics. It is not our intention to suggest that their dynamics must necessarily adhere to what we might consider being better for us.” On Bangladesh, he commented on how both countries have engaged in mutually beneficial projects and economic activity has picked up. He said: “I would urge you not to be deterministic about it. It is not as if India is seeking to control every political move of every neighbour.” 

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: Opinion poll indicates Likud’s decline, Naftali Bennet-led opposition’s rising popularity
On 11 October, The Jerusalem Post reported on an opinion poll conducted by the Hebrew newspaper Maariv, Israeli think tanks Lazar Research and Panel4All. According to the poll, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party would win only 20 seats in the 120-member Knesset if fresh elections were held. Furthermore, the opposition bloc, led by Naftali Bennet’s New Right party, would secure 58 seats (a simple majority). The study indicated that “after weeks of upward movement” following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leaders under Netanyahu, “Likud’s rise has been halted.” 

Israel: Opinion poll reveals opposition and political divisions on Gaza war 
On 07 October, the Israel Democracy Institute surveyed public opinions after one year of the Gaza war. Out of the 1000 respondents, 53 per cent of Israelis believed that the government should end military operations in Gaza. However, Jewish views differed depending on political orientation, with 83 per cent self-described leftists and 63 per cent centrists supporting an end to the war, and 61 per cent of right-wingers believing that “the time to end the war has not yet arrived.” Most Israelis (56 per cent Jews and 45 per cent) Arabs said that the main reason to end the war was “because continuing the fighting endangers the hostages.” 

Israel: Netanyahu speaks before UN General Assembly amidst walkout
On 27 September, according to Reuters, Israel’s Prime Minister delivered his address to the UN General Assembly amid multiple delegations staging a walkout to protest Israel’s war in Gaza. During his speech, Netanyahu lamented that Hamas’ 7 October attack disrupted the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He called for a revival of the Abraham Accords and their strengthening into an Abrahamic Alliance against Iran. Netanyahu highlighted that Israel was facing a war against Iran and its proxies on seven fronts, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, armed groups in Iraq and Syria, and armed groups in the West Bank. Denouncing Iran’s “malignant arc” of proxies, the Israeli leader called on the Middle East’s Muslim countries to partner with Israel and form a “land bridge connecting Asia and Europe.” Netanyahu stressed the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) successes against Hamas and stated that Israel would not allow Hamas to retain governing powers over Gaza. He stated: “If Hamas stays in power, it will regroup, rearm, and attack Israel again and again and again, as it has vowed to do. So, Hamas has got to go…Israel will reject any role for Hamas in a post-war Gaza.” While assuring the UN that Israel would not build settlements in Gaza, he outlined his endgame of demilitarizing and deradicalising Gaza and supporting a “local civilian administration” in the enclave, hinting at the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, he restated his commitment to bringing back Israeli hostages from Gaza. On Hezbollah, Netanyahu stated that Israel’s attacks killed the armed group’s commanders “who not only shed Israeli blood but American and French blood as well” and highlighted Israel’s leading role in “removing the curse of terrorism that threatens all civilised societies.” Furthermore, he described the UN’s criticism of and the legal proceedings against him as “antisemitic bile” and a “moral stain” on the international organisation.

Syria: Assad forms new Cabinet
On 23 September, Syria’s President, Bashar al-Assad, issued a decree forming Syria’s new cabinet, with Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali as Prime Minister. Jalali was previously a communications and technology minister in the government. Furthermore, Assad appointed Fayssal Mikdad as vice President. Mikdad was formerly Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates. 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Tunisia: Second term for President Kais Saied
On 8 October, Tunisia’s electoral commission declared Tunisia’s President Kais Saied winning a second term in office, securing more than 90 per cent of votes. A day before the elections on 6 October, hundreds of Tunisians protested against Saied for his electoral measures limiting the number of opponents and suppressing any competition. Several political parties had boycotted the elections. Only two candidates were allowed to stand against Saied and 29 per cent of the population registered to vote. 

Mauritius: The UK agrees to give sovereignty to Chagos Islands
On 3 October, the UK announced giving the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The deal provides Mauritius sovereignty to a key US military base in Deigo Garcia. However, the US has been guaranteed of its operation in the base for the next 99 years. The UK’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, David Lammy, stated: “Today’s agreement secures this vital military base for the future. It will strengthen our role in safeguarding global security, shut down any possibility of the Indian Ocean being used as a dangerous illegal migration route to the UK, as well as guarantee our long-term relationship with Mauritius.” The UK, a former coloniser of Mauritius detached the Chagos Islands from the country in 1965. In the 1970s, the UK evicted nearly 1,500 residents from Diego Garcia to Mauritius and Seychelles for the airbase leased to the US in 1966 for a USD 14 million discount on Polaris missiles. In 2010, Mauritius filed a case against the UK in ICJ, claiming its sovereignty over the Chagos Islands. In 2019, Mauritius won the case and a six-month notice was given to the UK to hand over the island. However, the UK objected to the ruling and stalled it until 2024. Meanwhile, many Chagossians dispute Mauritian sovereignty and are claiming self-determination.

Egypt: Military aid to Somalia amidst tensions with Ethiopia
On 23 September, Al Jazeera reported that an Egyptian warship carrying major weaponry was delivered to Somalia. It included anti-aircraft guns and artillery. Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “A shipment of Egyptian military aid has arrived in the Somali capital Mogadishu to support and build the capabilities of the Somali army.” It added: The shipment “reaffirms Egypt’s ongoing central role in supporting Somali efforts to develop the national capabilities necessary to fulfil the aspirations of the Somali people for security, stability, and development.” This is the second round of military aid to Somalia from Egypt. Ties between Egypt and Somalia grew amidst shared mistrust of Ethiopia over the GERD and Somaliland tensions. 

Nigeria: Ruling APC wins regional elections in Edo state
On 27 September, BBC reported on the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) election victory in the southern Edo state of Nigeria. This is the first test for President Bola Tinubu and his party after coming to power last year. The party’s victory comes despite the dire economic crisis and violent protests in August. Previously, Edo state was under the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). APC’s Monday Okpebholo defeated PDP’s Asue Ighodalo by 44,393 votes. Meanwhile, the PDP has alleged fraud and vowed to challenge the results legally. 

Senegal: President Faye criticises UNSC for its “inertia” in the Sahel
On 26 September, Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye criticised the UNSC for its “inertia” in responding to the deaths and destabilization in the Sahel region. He made the statement while addressing the UN General Assembly. Faye stated: “We cannot accept that the Sahel becomes the scene of rivalries between foreign powers, whose clashes only aggravate the destabilization of the region.” He added: “I must recall here that peace and security in Africa are inseparable from world peace. It is imperative that the Security Council fully fulfils its role as guarantor of international stability.” The statements were made amidst increasing geopolitical rivalry in the Sahel region following the withdrawal of the Western forces and entry of Russia, especially in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. 

Kenya: President Ruto meets Antony Blinken on the sidelines of UNGA
On 27 September, Kenyan President William Ruto met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Ruto thanked the US for its support to Africa. He stated: “Your support in South Sudan, what we are doing in DRC and I will be looking forward to a conversation around those issues and to see how our partnership can help and drive some of the solutions in those areas.” He additionally referred to the recent visit to Haiti and pointed out the progress in the airport, hospital and police academy. Kenya is the first country to deploy its police force in Haiti as part of the UN mission to fight instability. 

Equatorial Guinea: President Nguema meets Putin in Moscow
On 26 September, Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Putin emphasised the successful cooperation with Equatorial Guinea, an oil-rich country within the Gas Exporting Countries Forum and OPEC+. Putin stated: "Your country is our partner and in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. We have also been successfully cooperating with Equatorial Guinea in OPEC+ for a long time. Our common task, of course, is to stabilize world energy markets. And in general, together with partners within these organizations, we manage to solve this task quite effectively." 

THE EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: Zelesnkyy presents the “Plan of Victory” to President Macron
On 10 October, France24 reported on the visit of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to France to present the “Victory Plan” to France’s President Emmanuel Macron. This visit came as part of his 48-hour trip to London, Paris, Rome and Berlin trying to cater military and financial support to Ukraine. According to Elysee, the official website of the French government, the talks aimed "to reaffirm France's determination to continue to provide, over the long term and with all of its partners, unwavering support to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people." The visit came after Macron visited a military camp in eastern France, to meet a brigade of Ukrainian troops training in France.

Italy: Prime Minister Meloni announces the upcoming Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2025
On 11 October, France24 reported on the announcement made by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni over the Ukraine Recovery Conference. After discussing with Zelenskyy, Meloni informed that Italy was set to host the Conference from 10 – 11 July 2025. The previous conferences were held in Switzerland, London and Berlin. In the meeting where Zelenskyy presented his “Victory Plan,” Meloni assured Italy’s support to Ukraine. She said that Italy intended to put Ukraine in the best possible condition to negotiate peace. Zelenskyy will also meet Pope Francis at the Vatican as part of his Europe tour.

Hungary: Prime Minister Orban delivers speech in the EU parliament
On 09 October, Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban delivered his speech in the EU parliament. The speech highlighted Hungarian interests in the EU. Members of the European Parliament from left-wing parties boycotted his speech. Ale Daniel Freund, MEP from the Greens Party in Germany said: “Orbán has turned Hungary into the most corrupt country in the European Union.” Several MEPs also criticised Hungary’s migration policy. Meanwhile, he was praised by right-wing parties like Patriots for Europe and other right-wing groups like European Conservatives and Reformists and Europe of Sovereign Nations. Jorge Buxadé Villalba, MEP from the Spanish party Vox, called Orbán's speech "a breath of fresh air." 

Spain: European Court of Justice denies MEP status to Carles Puigdemont
On 26 September, the European Court of Justice’s rule denied Carles Puigdemont and Antonio Comín their Member of European Parliament (MEP) status after the 2019 elections. Comin won the elections in 2024 as well. According to Spanish law, elected MEPs are required to visit the national parliament and declare their allegiance to the constitution to be verified as a representative of Spain in the European parliament. However, Puigdemont and Comín failed to verify due to the arrest warrant over the independence referendum organised for Catalonia in 2017. Their names were removed from the MEP list and their seats were declared vacant. In January 2020, their MEP status was revived after the ECJ reaffirmed their immunity and ruled that member countries had no right to ban elected MEPs from taking their seats. In 2024, Comin refused to travel to Spain after being re-elected as an MEP. The ECJ upheld the Spanish government's decision to reject their MEP status.

The UK: Keir Starmer and Donald Trump meet in New York
On 26 September, the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump met in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. According to Politico, this meeting was to make up for the previous statements by the UK leaders on Trump. For instance, UK’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy once called Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath.” Politico reported that the UK is concerned that the US might pull funding from the UN if Trump is elected as the President. 

Austria: General elections favour the return of far-right
On 25 September, Politico reported that the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) is in a favourable position to win the general election in Austria. The FPO narrowly leads opinion polls at 27 per cent against the People’s Party (OVP) at 25 per cent. The possibility of the FPO gaining power has caused fear in the EU due to the party’s antagonistic stance towards the bloc and friendliness with Russia. Additionally, Austria is important for trade due to its position at the centre of Europe. Austria is the gateway to the Balkans for Western Europe and the main north-south corridor for the EU. The country has taken in the most refugees per capita in the past decade. The leader of the FPO Herbert Kickl proposed border closures in Austria alongside the remigration of foreign residents. During his time as Minister for the Interior, Kickl was accused of questioning the legitimacy of the Austrian intelligence services, taking a hard line on migration and renaming asylum registration centres as “Departure Centres.” However, the FPO gaining power will depend on other parties like the OVP’s decision to join the FPO’s coalition. The OVP has had coalitions with the FPO in the past. Meanwhile, Austria’s President Alexander Van der Bellen can reject candidates for chancellor and ministers. Van der Bellen could reject Kickl and the FPO to protect Austria’s position in the EU.

Germany: Green party leaders resign
On 26 September, Deutsche Welle reported that the leaders of the Greens party in Germany, Ricarda Lang and Omid Nouripour resigned from their positions. The resignations came after the Greens suffered humiliating defeats in the regional elections in three East German states. The party failed to cross the minimum threshold of five per cent for representation in the state parliament. Lang stated that Germany was at a crossroads between those who favoured a position of climate neutrality protecting prosperity and those against that. The Greens party has been declining, losing power in three eastern states where they formed the government in 2019. Additionally, in the June elections to the European Parliament, the Greens received 11.9 per cent of the vote against 20.5 per cent five years ago. Emanuel Richter, a political scientist stated that the agenda of the Greens such as the heating law and transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energies had contributed to its decline. Additionally, Richter stated that the Greens needed to improve their ways of communication to change the perception of rigidly implementing their ideological policies. Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz stated that the resignations would not impact the German coalition government.

THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Canada: Justin Trudeau survives no-confidence motion
On 25 September, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defeated a non-confidence motion to hold new elections, with 211 votes against it. The motion was tabled as Trudeau’s approval rating came down to 28 per cent from 63 per cent. Trudeau’s Liberal Party lost two important by-elections in Toronto and Montreal. During the no-confidence motion, the Liberal Party, New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois voted against the motion while the Conservative Party, which has 119 seats in parliament, voted for the motion. 

Brazil: Discussion to join BRI amid US election concerns
On 24 September, SCMP reported that Brazil may join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). An inter-ministerial working group has been set up to study the move. The upcoming US presidential election complicates the decision and diplomats have advised President Lula to delay any announcement until 5 November. Lula has supported Kamala Harris, potentially complicating relations with a future Trump administration. The project picked up steam in June when former President Dilma Rousseff pitched its benefits. Lula publicly confirmed that he was considering it in July, stating that he was studying what Brazil “had to gain.” Brazilian analysts believe membership is a “fundamental measure” compatible with Lula’s development strategy. Concerns persist about the impact of Trump’s presidency on US-Brazil relations. The working group is supposed to hold a meeting after the UN General Assembly to deliberate on further steps.

About the Authors
Sim V Jain is a student from St Joseph's University. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Samruddi Pathak, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Advik S Mohan and Sachin Aravindan are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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