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CWA # 1521, 28 October 2024
The World This Week
The BRICS Summit at Kazan and the Modi-Xi Meeting

  GP Team

The World This Week #283, Vol. 6 No. 37, 27 October 2024
 

Lakshmi Karlekar and Femy Francis

The BRICS Summit at Kazan
Lakshmi Karlekar

What happened?
During 22-24 October 2024, Russia held the 16th BRICS Summit at Kazan. Focussed on "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security." The Summit witnessed the formal admission of new members—Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. 

On 22 October 22, a cultural and economic assemblage display was showcased at the Kazan Expo Centre, where all the leaders took a "family" photo. 
 
On 23 October, a series of deals were signed. Russia sought to build a gas hub and new nuclear power plants in Turkey. Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi praised Russia's economic assistance for Egypt, citing the country's first nuclear power plant, constructed by Rosatom, Russia's state atomic energy corporation. Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's President, met with Putin and conveyed the latter's wish to deepen relations with Tehran. China's President Xi Jinping called for a ceasefire in Gaza. India's PM  Modi, at the Closed Plenary Session, said: "To combat terrorism and terror financing, we must all be united and work closely together to prevent radicalization among our countries' youth. Double standards are unacceptable on a matter of this gravity, and we must call for the UN's unresolved Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism." 

On 24 October, the BRICS Summit adopted the Kazan declaration. The declaration focussed on bolstering financial cooperation, collective security and counterterrorism efforts, Grain Exchange and Economic Cooperation, traditional medicine and digital health, and alternative financial mechanisms. (To know more about the Kazan Declaration, read the Takeaways below)

What is the background?
First, a brief background to BRICS. The economies of Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa saw rapid expansion; together, they have a GDP of US$28 trillion, or roughly 27 per cent of the global gross domestic product; a total GDP (PPP) of about US$65 trillion, or 33 per cent of the global GDP PPP; and an estimated US$5.2 trillion in foreign reserves as of 2024. BRICS has held fifteen summits to date. 

Second, the expansion of BRICS. At the 15th BRICS Summit in August 2023, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the joining of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates. On 1 January 2024, full membership was supposed to go into effect. In November 2023, Argentina's new foreign minister announced that the country would not be joining the BRICS. 

Third, the Russian-Ukraine War background. The Summit took place with the War reaching a crucial phase and complaints of North Korean soldiers on Russian soil. President Putin has been looking for global support for his position. The attendance of the UN Secretary-General at the BRICS summit should be viewed in Moscow as a part of this push.

What does it mean? 
First, the crucial timing of BRICS expansion at the tipping point of two ongoing wars. According to the BRICS countries' declaration, the rise of new centres of economic growth, policymaking, and power can open the door to a multipolar world order that is more balanced, just, and equitable. More than 30 nations have indicated their interest in joining the BRICS alliance. As member countries aggressively pursue their national interests, it also raises worries about the disruptive impact of illegal, one-sided, coercive actions. 

Second, expectations and achievements of Russia as a host. Russia intended to create a positive development of all BRICS member states through various avenues of cooperation such as politics, economics, energy, defence, and cultural exchanges. Vladimir Putin said in this context that developing a "multipolar world order" is perpetual and irreversible due to its growing scope.  

The Kazan Declaration: Major Takeaways
Lakshmi Karlekar

The 16th BRICS Summit at Kazan, Russia, witnessed the signing of a declaration at the end. The following are major takeaways.

Strengthening and Expansion of Economic Cooperation
BRICS leaders have reaffirmed their commitment to bolstering financial cooperation by extending the use of local currencies to encourage economic stability. Creating alternative financial mechanisms was a step towards de-dollarizing the global economy. 

Emphasis on Collective Security and Counterterrorism Efforts
BRICS members supported India's Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) initiative, which called for prompt action on listing UN-designated terrorists. It further advocated for the criminalization of international terrorism and limiting terrorists' access to safe havens, capital, and weapons of mass destruction. 

Promotion of Trade in the Primary Sector
The BRICS Grain Exchange and Economic Cooperation to strengthen supply chains and food security via increased trade in agricultural products. This tout would leverage BRICS' median economic expansion in 2024–2025 to be 3.8 per cent, while the global growth rate would be between 3.2 and 3.3 per cent.

Focus on Traditional Medicine and Digital Health
The member states endorsed the BRICS R&D Vaccine Centre to improve public health outcomes. Russia proposed the establishment of an international electronic platform (exchange) to carry out collaborative projects, such as vaccine development and preclinical and clinical trials. BRICS has praised the decision to create a BRICS Working Group on Nuclear Medicine, highlighting the countries' tremendous potential in this area. It also started the BRICS Medical Association and its first-ever BRICS Health Journal.

Bolstering multilateralism
To promote a more equitable international order, the BRICS leaders emphasized that "all states should act consistently with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter". By allowing emerging markets and developing nations (EMDCs) to meaningfully participate, BRICS has further reaffirmed its commitment to enhancing global governance by making international systems more adaptable, effective, receptive, representative, legitimate, democratized, and accountable. Further, it demonstrated how G20 inclusion and cultural cooperation can support attaining the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 

Xi-Modi meeting and the decision to de-escalate along the India-China border
Femy Francis

What happened?
On 23 October, China's President Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi met for the first time in four years (since the Galwan Valley skirmishes between the troops) at the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit held in Kazan, Russia. Both leaders confirmed the disengagement agreement along the India-China border around Galwan Valley. President Xi said: "It's important for both sides to have more communication and cooperation, properly handle our differences and disagreements, and to facilitate each other's pursuit of development aspirations. It's also important for both sides to shoulder our international responsibility, set an example for boosting the strength and unity of developing countries, and contribute to promoting multi-polarization and democracy in international relations." 

Prime Minister Modi said: "We welcome the consensus reached on the issues that have arisen in the last four years on the border. Maintaining peace and stability on the border should remain our priority. Mutual trust, mutual respect, and mutual sensitivity should remain the basis of our relations."  Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said: "There are areas which for various reasons after 2020... because they had blocked us so we had blocked them. So, what has happened is we have reached an understanding which will allow the patrolling." China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Lin Jian, said: "China and India reached recently on issues concerning the border area, the Chinese and Indian frontier troops are engaged in relevant work, which is going smoothly at the moment." 

What is the background?
First, the previous meetings between Xi and Modi. The two leaders met for the first time in 2016 after President Xi assumed office. In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took part in a summit at Wuhan in China. The last bilateral meeting was in 2019 at Mahabalipuram in India when China's President Xi Jinping visited India. Since the Galwan Valley confrontation of 2020, border issues have been at the forefront, and there have been summits at the highest level between the two countries.  

Second, a brief background to the Galwan crisis. According to India, in June 2020, in the Galwan region, a “violent face-off happened as a result of an attempt by the Chinese side to unilaterally change the status quo there.” China issued a contradictory statement accusing India of attacking “Chinese officers and soldiers who went there for negotiation, thus triggering fierce physical conflicts.”

Third, India-China high-profile meetings on border resolution. The latest agreement can be traced to a series of meetings at the level of the Foreign Ministers National Security Advisors. India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met at several multilateral events to discuss the border issue. The latest one was held on 12 September 2024 at the BRICS meeting in Russia, where Doval expressed that mutual respect is paramount to instituting normalcy in LAC. Both sides have agreed "to work with urgency and redouble their efforts."

Fourth, de-escalation efforts at the military level between the corps commanders. There have been multiple rounds of meetings along the border. The recent disengagement agreement should also be seen as an outcome of these meetings at the ground level. 

What does it mean?
First, a political breakthrough. The agreement is the first in the last four years and should be the first step towards defrosting the frozen bilateral ties. Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi noted that India-China has now plucked the "low-hanging fruit." This would further open possibilities to resolve another more severe point of contention. 

Second, de-escalation at the ground level. The agreement suggests that the PLA agrees to India patrol up to 10-13 points. Without procedures in place, this will be unlikely as several infrastructures are built by PLA in the region. Unless there is a complete disengagement in the region, any proper patrolling will not be productive. 

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Samrudhi Pathak, Sachin Aravind, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Neha Tresa George and Advik S Mohan

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Satellite Tianping-3 launched
On 22 October, Xinhua reported that China successfully launched the satellite Tianping- 3. The satellite was launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre in Shaanxi Province through a Long March-6 carrier rocket. It successfully entered the preset orbit and is expected to provide services including orbital prediction model corrections and atmospheric space environment surveys.

China: Strengthening ties with Laos
On 22 October, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China's commitment to strengthen ties with Laos during his meeting with Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith. Both leaders emphasised the importance of the China-Laos Railway and the China-Laos Economic Corridor. Xi highlighted the areas of cooperation in trade, connectivity, and cultural exchanges. He reiterated that China would continue being a “trustworthy friend and partner” for Laos. Meanwhile, Thongloun acknowledged China’s contribution to the country’s development. He reaffirmed support to China on the one-China policy and Taiwan-Hong Kong-Xinjiang issues. He expressed hope for further cooperation with China in ASEAN and other international forums.

Taiwan: Invitation to the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR)
On 21 October, Taiwan News reported on an invitation received by Taiwan to the newly formed Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR). The group said: “The US invited Taiwan to participate in the multilateral initiative to strengthen defence industry supply chain resilience and maintain security in the Indo-Pacific.” On 7-8 October, during the inaugural meeting in Honolulu, Hawaii, retired US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery proposed joint weapon production between Taiwan and the US. The meeting focused on the Vision Statement which brought out the core principles to direct cooperation on defence industrial resilience. Meanwhile, its members listed out four major focus areas including sustainment, production, supply chain resilience and policy and optimization. Taiwan’s partnership comes as President Lai Ching-te promised to bolster national defence and safeguard its citizens under the four pillars of a peace action plan. 

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
North Korea: Foreign minister criticises the new multilateral sanctions imposed by the US
On 20 October, Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea's Minister of Foreign Affairs Choi Sun-hui condemned the sanctions by the US as “unlawful and illegitimate.” This came after South Korea, the US and Japan with eight other countries announced the launch of the monitoring mechanism on North Korea on 17 October. Choi said: “The monitoring team is unlawful and illegitimate and constitutes a denial of the U.N. Charter. The forces involved in the smear campaign against the DPRK will have to pay a dear price for it.”  However, the monitoring team is expected to report violations of UN sanctions, designed to prevent Pyongyang from advancing its nuclear and missile programs.

Samoa: King Charles to be offered the high chief title 
On 24 October, RNZ reported on King Charles III being offered the title of high chief in Samoa. Lenatai Victor Tamapua, a Samoan chief and member of parliament, announced the title of Tui Taumeasina to King Charles and Queen Camilla during a traditional ceremonial welcome. Tamapua said: “The king tide today is about twice that it was 20, 30 years ago, and that is affecting our land, and it's eating away at some of the areas that are so hard for us to control, and people (have to) move inwards, inland now.” King Charles is the Head of the State of Australia, New Zealand, and other twelve Commonwealth dominions outside the UK. He is also the symbolic head of the Commonwealth. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Indonesia: Plans to join BRICS
On 25 October, The Straits Times reported that Indonesia expressed interest in joining the BRICS. According to Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the process of aligning with the group had already started. At the sidelines of the BRICS summit, Indonesia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs  Retno Lestari Sugiono said: “Indonesia joining BRICS is a manifestation of its independent-active foreign policy.” He added that BRICS suited President Prabowo Subianto’s government policies such as “food and energy security, poverty eradication and advancement of human resources.”

Indonesia: Reaffirms strategic partnership with China
On 19 October, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng attended the inauguration of the newly elected president-elect Prabowo Subianto, Han emphasised China’s willingness to deepen strategic coordination and ensure high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. The project Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway was cited as an example of friendship and cooperation. Indonesian President Joko Widodo expressed the country’s willingness to ensure the railway's efficient operation and further develop ties with China. Both sides recognised strong growth in their comprehensive strategic partnership in recent years.

Malaysia: To boost healthcare and infrastructure
On 25 October, The Straits Times reported on Malaysia’s plans to digitalise the healthcare system to strengthen medical tourism and provide greater access to remote places. According to Minister of Communications, Fahmi Fadzil, attempts were being made to restructure the healthcare centres into “smart hospitals.” He said: “We are trying to leverage a lot of the infrastructure, the digital and telecommunications infrastructure, to make full use of a lot of these technologies that are actually already available.” Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s government primarily focuses on strengthening the country’s infrastructure, economic growth and foreign investments rather than mega projects.

Sri Lanka: IMF to carry out its third review
On 25 October, Daily Mirror reported on the upcoming third review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following Sri Lanka’s considerable growth. IMF Director of the Asia and Pacific Department Krishna Srinivasan said: "The new government would like to safeguard and build on the hard win gains under the program." Responding to a query regarding Sri Lanka's debt restructuring, he stated that this development was enough to encourage the IMF to move on to its third review. The details of the program were to be discussed in Washington this week.

India: Election Commission signs an MoU with Uzbek’s poll body 
On 25 October, during the Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar's visit to Tashkent as an international observer to Uzbekistan's upcoming elections, the Election Commission ratified an agreement with Uzbekistan’s poll body. The Memorandum of Understanding signed aimed to strengthen and deepen their interaction and benefit both democracies.

India: President Murmu nominates Justice Khanna as new CJI
On 25 October, The Indian Express reported that President Droupadi Murmu appointed Justice Sanjiv Khanna as the 51st Chief Justice of India. Justice Khanna, likely to take oath on November 11, will succeed the outgoing Chief Justice of India, D Y Chandrachud. 

Pakistan: The 26th Constitutional Amendment passed in both houses
On 20 October, Dawn reported that the 26th Constitutional Amendment, consisting of 27 clauses, received approval from the Senate and National Assembly. It was approved by President Asif Ali Zardari. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif termed the passing of the amendment as a “shining example of national consensus.” He claimed that the amendment would complete the vision of the Charter of Democracy introduced by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. He further emphasized that the amendments would help in ensuring easier access to justice and protect the country’s future. The amendment, however, has generated widespread debate in the country and is opposed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JI) who have threatened to file petitions against the law.

Pakistan: Justice Yahya Afridi appointed as the next Chief Justice 
On 22 October, Justice Yahya Afridi was chosen as the 30th Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) by the special parliamentary panel. He was appointed by President Asif Ali Zardari. He won with a two-thirds majority from a list of three Supreme Court. He is set to be sworn in as the next CJP on 26 October and will remain in office for a three-year term. His appointment came after the changes in the judicial appointment process with the 26th Constitutional Amendment. 

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: Opinion poll shows Likud’s rising popularity
On 20 October, The Jerusalem Post reported on a Channel 13 public opinion poll. The survey showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party reclaiming the position of largest party for the first time since the 7 October attack, winning 25 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Benny Gantz’s National Unity would secure second place, with 21 seats, and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid would finish third with 13 seats. However, Netanyahu’s ruling coalition would have only 55 seats against the opposition’s 60. Furthermore, the poll reflected a split in the country’s electorate over the government’s Gaza endgame, with 52 per cent of respondents supporting a hostage exchange deal and the Israeli military’s withdrawal from Gaza and 41 per cent supporting the continuation of military operations in the enclave. 

Saudi Arabia: Foreign minister attends BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan
On 24 October, Arab News reported that Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, attended the BRICS Plus 2024 Summit at Russia’s Kazan city, highlighting the Kingdom’s economic ties with the group, geopolitical instability, and reiterating Riyadh’s commitment to intensifying ties with the global south grouping. Highlighting Saudi Arabia’s economic relations with the BRICS countries, Prince Farhan stated: “The volume of bilateral trade with the BRICS countries exceeded $196 billion in 2023, representing 37 per cent of the Kingdom's total foreign trade.” In addition, Prince Faisal assured: “The Kingdom will continue to strengthen its partnerships with the BRICS group and expand the horizons of cooperation in all fields, to achieve development and prosperity.” Although Saudi Arabia is not a BRICS member, it participates in its meetings as an invited state. 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Ghana: Parliament suspended after chaos over majority 
On 22 October, Ghana’s parliament speaker suspended proceedings indefinitely after chaos over the parliamentary majority. The previous week, four Members of Parliament (MPs) defected to the opposition party to run for the 7 December general election. However, speaker Alban Bagbin declared defection unconstitutional while in power. The new changes, despite being challenged legally, have put the opposition National Democratic Congress in the majority in the parliament. The Supreme Court directed the speaker to suspend his declaration until the court verdict. Meanwhile, the situation worsened when the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and NDC tried to occupy the seats of the majority party during the first sitting after the Supreme Court directive.

Africa: Governance progress stagnant since 2022, says Ibrahim Index of African Governance 
On 23 October, the Ibrahim Index of African Governance released its latest edition. It found that governance progress in Africa has been stagnant since 2022. It reports a governance backsliding in 21 African countries, almost half of the continent. Linking the governance backsliding with violence, philanthropist Mo Ibrahim told Al Jazeera: “If there is deterioration in governance, if there is corruption, if there is marginalisation … people are going to pick up arms.” Referring to the civil war in Sudan and the series of coups in West Africa, he highlighted “a huge arc of instability and conflicts” in the continent. The report says that there were improvements in 33 countries in the sectors of infrastructure and women’s equality. However, the scores went down in areas of rule of law, rights, political participation and security.

Mozambique: Ruling Frelimo wins disputed election
On 24 October, Mozambique’s election commission announced the victory of the ruling Frelimo party in the recent presidential elections. Daniel Chapo, 47, Frelimo’s new presidential candidate, will replace Filipe Nyusi. Chapo secured 71 per cent votes against his counterpart Vanancio Mondlane securing 20 per cent. Chapo commented during his victory speech: “We remained silent all this time, for respecting the law. We are an organised party that prepares its victories.” The elections have been marred by allegations of fraud and vote rigging. Besides, violent protests erupted the previous week after two opposition party members were killed by unknown assailants. According to the election commission, the voter turnout was 43 per cent. Frelimo won 195/250 seats in the parliament.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Belarus: President Lukashenko proposes to contribute to BRICS
On 24 October, BELTA News reported that the President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko, had listed a set of proposals for improving the BRICS bloc. Lukashenko informed that the Government of Belarus was aligned with the philosophy of BRICS, and had shown itself to be an effective and responsible partner. He informed that Belarus was ready to help other countries achieve sustainable development, using its experiences. The Belarussian president also expressed his desire to provide greater support in the fields of security and the fight against hunger, poverty and climate change. Additionally, Lukashenko stated that Belarus was ready to contribute to humanitarian cooperation within BRICS. He offered the creation of a common payment system to ensure the different member states coordinated together, and the BRICS bloc made its tangible contribution.

Russia: Parliament ratifies Defence Treaty with North Korea 
On 24 October, RT reported on the ratification of a bilateral defence treaty with North Korea in the Russian state of Duma. It was earlier signed in June, following Putin’s visit to North Korea. The agreement highlights the “comprehensive cooperation between the countries that included national security issues.” They vowed not to engage with third parties that disrupted others’ sovereignty and pledged to support each other in case of any attacks. Andrey Rudenko, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister believed that the agreement would upgrade the relationship with North Korea to a new level. He said: “This treaty is open, it will be published, there are no secret points in it. Everything is written clearly.” He expressed Russia’s aim to counter the growing threats from the West. He warned against the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons in the Asia-Pacific due to the growing military alliances. The decision of ratification of the agreement came amidst increasing allegations against Russia over the deployment of North Korean soldiers on the battlefield. 

Russia: UN Secretary-General attends the BRICS Summit held in Kazan
On 23 October, Euronews reported on the visit of the UN’s Secretary-General António Guterres to the BRICS summit in Kazan. His decision to accept the invitation was condemned by Ukraine and Lithuania. According to the Kyiv Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “This is a wrong choice that does not advance the cause of peace. It only damages the UN's reputation.” It noted that Guterres had earlier declined the invitation to attend the peace summit organised in Switzerland. Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis referred to the decision as “unacceptable.” Guterres and his spokespeople have not made any official response to these criticisms.

Germany: Defence minister signs Trinity House agreement with the UK to reinforce defence cooperation
On 23 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the new defence agreement signed between Germany and the UK. Germany’s Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius held a meeting with his UK counterpart John Healey in London. The leaders declared that the new “Trinity House Agreement” would reinforce cooperation and ability to conduct exercises in the EU’s eastern flank. According to Pistorius: “With projects across the air, land, sea, and cyber domains, we will jointly increase our defence capabilities, thereby strengthening the European pillar within NATO.” He warned that the EU’s security should be ensured against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Healey highlighted the deal as the "milestone moment in our relationship with Germany and a major strengthening of Europe's security." He added that the agreement dealt with collaboration in commercial areas like weapons production. 

About the Authors
Lakshmi Karlekar is a PhD scholar at CHRIST (Deemed to be) University. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Samruddi Pathak, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Advik S Mohan and Sachin Aravindan are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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