The Year That Was & More Questions for 2025

Photo Source: AP Photo/Evan Vucci/Reuters/AFP/PA Media/The Guaridan/COP29 Azerbaijan/X Profile/AP Photo/Eraldo Press/Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg/AFP/Shanghai Cooperat
NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1558

The World This Week

The Year That Was & More Questions for 2025

GP Team
1 January 2025

The Year That Was & More Questions for 2025
D Suba Chandran

2024 was a Year of Elections: Will the World be more democratic in 2025?
2024 was a year of elections. From the US to Japan, there were multiple Presidential and Parliamentary elections. According to statistics, more countries went for the elections, and a historic number of people voted this year.

Some elections witnessed a change in the government; some of the major ones include the US, UK, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Some elections ended up in re-electing the government, but with reduced support – for example, in India.

The elections also saw the rise of right-wing parties, especially in Europe. Besides the rise of rightwing political parties, the sentiments they represent also were widespread and not limited to Europe alone. Fear of migration, looking inwards, restoring a historical greatness and questioning globalization were some of the common trends; Trump’s election was an expression of the above.

True, there were more elections in 2024. Most of the population across the world exercised their freedom to choose their leader and government. How will that play out this year? Will the world and global politics become more democratic in 2025?

The Return of Trump: What it means for the Global Order?
The second major development during 2024 was the election of Donald Trump as the next US President. He defied the expectations that it would be a tough and close fight with Kamala Harris. He won the elections comfortably, and the Republicans control the Congress.

The larger question will be on the return of Trump and its importance for global politics. Trump has already made enough hints on how he is likely to pursue the foreign policy. One should have a good idea based on his first term, on where he stands in the US engagement with the rest of the world. What would “Make America Great Again” mean for the US foreign policy? In particular, how will the following play out in 2025 - US-China relations, trans-Atlantic partnership and two conflicts – Ukraine and Palestine?

The Conflict expansion in Gaza: Will Trump’s return make a change?
The Israel-Hamas conflict in 2024 saw a dramatic escalation on three sides, with the Hezbollah on the north, Iran on the east and the Houthis on the south. All three escalations thankfully did not become a major one. With the Hezbollah, Israel held a negotiation. With Iran, there was a careful escalation followed by a de-escalation. With Houthis, the tensions continue.

For the Palestinians in Gaza, there was no respite from military operations and air attacks. The Hamas continued to resist all pressure to release the Israeli hostages. 2024 had come to an end; there is no sign of the conflict coming to an end.

The US, under Biden, played a controversial role in the Gaza war. It spoke for the Palestinians, but sided with Israel at the United Nations. It attempted to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas (along with the others in the Middle East). Biden talked about an impending ceasefire during 2024, that never happened.

With Trump returning to the White House, what will be his approach towards Israel, Hamas and the other actors in the region? Will he try to revive the Abraham Accord in the Middle East? What will that mean for Israel, Hamas and the Palestinians?

The Stalemate in Ukraine: What next for Kyiv?
The year witnessed a stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine’s efforts to get more political and military support from Europe and the US met with limited success. As a result, Ukraine could not make any substantial counter-offensive, despite the much talked about Kursk military operations.

The sanctions have not resulted in any political upheaval within Russia; despite the criticism from the West, the Presidential election in Russia witnessed the re-election of Putin. As the year comes to an end, with Trump as the new American President in the White House, Moscow should be less worried than Kyiv. Will this change the war in Ukraine in 2025?

More Actors in Space: Towards a New Order?
India, China and Japan – all three countries took substantial steps to augment their Space capabilities. The lunar and Mars missions witnessed a fillip during the year. So are the efforts relating to Space Stations.

Many countries also witnessed increasing private participation in space research and development. Clearly, US and Russia are no more the leading countries with a strong Space programmes and assets there. Three countries (from Asia) are making deep inroads into research, applications, activies and presence in Space. What do these developments mean to the space order?

Iran, Russia, China and North Korea: A New Quad?
The year also witnessed a steady understanding between four countries – Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. Interactions took place at the highest levels between Russia, China and North Korea at bilateral levels.

What would the above mean for the international order? How will the new American President address the above?

The Fall of Assad Regime: Will Syria witness an inclusive governance?
A surprise that was totally unexpected was the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the pace at which the HTS swept over the provinces and took over Damascus, forcing Assad to flee.

While there are multiple analyses explaining the fall of Assad and the rise of HTS, the important question is: what next for Syria? Will the new rulers make the country democratic and the governance become inclusive?

The Surprise in South Asia: What next for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka?
There were two surprises in South Asia during this year – in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The strong rule of Sheikh Hasina saw a sudden collapse, resulting in her fleeing the country. A new regime is now led by a caretaker government.

In Sri Lanka, the JVP, a former left-wing extremist that fought against the State, contested elections and captured the government.

What next for Colombo and Dhaka? Will the two be able to provide a stable government – economically and politically?

Pakistan, despite the elections in 2024, also witnessed dramatic scenes in 2024. The Parliament remains unstable with the ruling coalition and the opposition led Imran Khan yet to reach a working relationship. The economic situation has stabilized – in terms of not diving any further, but has not come out of the woods yet. Islamabad relationship with Kabul hit the bottom in 2024, and its efforts to improve relationship with New Delhi has not made progress. Will Pakistan see stability in 2025?

The World This Year
Annual Roundup: From The World This Week Archives

China
China: Two Sessions Rubber Stamps Xi’s Vision for China
Femy Francis, 18 March 2024

Chang’e 6: China’s Far-side Lunar Ambitions
Akhil Ajith, 05 May 2024

The Fujian: China’s Third Aircraft Carrier
Vetriselvi Baskaran, 05 May 2024

China and France: President Xi's Visit to Paris Showcases Beijing's Strategic Approach
Padmashree Anandhan, 12 May 2024

President Xi in Serbia: Looking at China's Balkans Strategy and Beyond 25th Year of Bombing Anniversary
Femy Francis, 12 May 2024

China-South Korea 2+2 Dialogue
Akhil Ajith, 23 June 2024

Ji Di: China’s fourth Icebreaker
Vetriselvi Baskaran, 30 June 2024

International Tariffs on Chinese EVs
Sayeka Ghosh, 30 June 2024

China, Southeast Asia, and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation
Femy Francis, 19 August 2024

The 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum
Sayeka Ghosh, 22 September 2024

Xi-Modi Meeting and the decision to de-escalate along the India-China border
Femy Francis, 27 October 2024

Finland President's Visit to China
Advik S Mohan, 03 November 2024

China in Space: A Record Walk
Nova Karun K, 22 December 2024

China: New Chief Executive in Macau
Vaishak Sreekumar, 22 December 2024

East Asia and the Pacific
Taiwan Election 2024
Femy Francis, 14 January 2024

North Korea: Continued Cruise Missile Testing
Femy Francis, 04 February 2024

Tuvalu Elections 2024: Geopolitical Churn in the Pacific
Akhil Ajith, 04 February 2024

Kiribati Elections 2024
Advik S Mohan, 24 August 2024

Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party Elections
Advik S Mohan, 13 October 2024

North Korean Troops in Russia
Kavitashri M, 03 November 2024

Japan: LDP loses majority in the House of Representatives elections
Sayeka Ghosh, 03 November 2024

South Korea: An Interim President and an Impending Political Instability
C Shraddha, 22 December 2024

South and Southeast Asia
Pakistan: Shehbaz Sharif elected as the new Prime Minister
Shamini Velayutham, 03 March 2024

Elections in Maldives: An absolute majority to President Mizu
Vetriselvi Baskaran, 28 April 2024

Pakistan: The decision to ban PTI
Dhriti Mukherjee, 21 July 2024

Nepal: Another government change
Mahesh Bhatta, 21 July 2024

Bangladesh: Protests and Violence over Quota reform
Ayan Datta, 21 July 2024

Interim government in Bangladesh
Ayan Datta, 11 August 2024

Bangladesh: Two Weeks after Hasina’s Exit, an increasing demand for her extradition
Ayush Bhattacharjee, 24 August 2024

India: Modi’s visit to the US
Sim V Jain, 13 October 2024

Sri Lanka Parliamentary Elections 2024: Rise and rise of the JVP
D. Suba Chandran.

Indonesia Elections 2024: a new wave in making
Akhil Ajith, 18 February 2024

Middle East and Africa
US and Israel: The growing divide over the War in Gaza
Rosemary Kurian, 11 February 2024

Escalation in the Middle East: The War in Gaza expands as Iran attacks Israel
Shamini Velayutham, 14 April 2024

Elections in Senegal: A democratic victory in Africa
Anu Maria Joseph, 31 March 2024

South Africa Elections 2024: Early results imply the end of ANC domination
Anu Maria Joseph, 02 June 2024

Europe
Aid to Ukraine: The divide within the US
Alka Bala, 11 February 2024

Finland: Presidential elections call for shift in foreign policy
Padmashree Anandhan, 18 February 2024

Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland: 25 years of NATO's first Eastern Europe enlargement
Padmashree Anandhan, 18 March 2024

Russia: Vladimir Putin gets elected for the fifth time as the President
Alka Bala, 24 March 2024

75 YEARS OF NATO
Padmashree Anandhan, 7 April 2024

Germany and China: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Beijing Visit
Manoranjan Kumar, 24 April 2024

President Xi in Hungary: An evolving symbiotic partnership vis-à-vis Europe
Akhil Ajith, 12 May 2024

Putin's Visit to North Korea, and its Implications
Lakshmi Karlekar, 23 June 2024

Putin’s Visit to Vietnam: Reinforcing Strategic Partnership and Regional Influence
Sayeka Ghosh, 23 June 2024

UK Elections: A Landslide Victory for the Labour Party
Govind Anoop, 14 July 2024

France Elections: Far-right win provokes political chaos
Padmashree Anandhan, 14 July 2024

Elections in Eastern Germany
Samruddi Pathak, 08 September 2024

Europe: The Meloni-Starmer Meeting
Neha Tresa George, 22 September 2024

Ukraine: Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the US
Neha Tresa George, 13 October 2024

Elections in Ireland: Continuity and Change
Abhiruchi Chowdhury, 9 December 2024

Political Crisis in France
Prajwal T V, 9 December 2024

Americas
The Tesla Deal and the Rise of Baidu
Femy Francis, 05 May 2024

The New US Sanctions on China: Bilateral and Global Fallouts of US-China Trade War
Lakshmi Karlekar, 19 May 2024

The Trump Trial: The Jury's Verdict and its Fallouts
Dhriti Mukherjee, 02 June 2024

Global and Regional Summits
Special Summit of the European Council 2024
Manoranjan Kumar, 04 February 2024

Italy-Africa Summit: Exhibits the need to diversify and curb migration
Padmashree Anandhan, 04 February 2024

ASEAN-Australia Summit 2024: A strong regional partnership in making
Akhil Ajith, 10 March 2024

Putin-Xi Summit: Towards a Strategic transformation in Russia-China relations
Padmashree Anandhan, 19 May 2024

China-Arab States Summit: Xi's "Five Cooperation Framework" as a New Middle East Pivot
Femy Francis, 02 June 2024

Japan and the Pacific: Tenth Pacific Island Leaders Meeting (PALM 10)
Femy Francis, 28 July 2024

China-Africa: The Ninth FOCAC Summit
Femy Francis, 08 September 2024

Quad Summit 2024: The Wilmington Declaration
Femy Francis, 13 October 2024

The BRICS Summit at Kazan
Lakshmi Karlekar, 27 October 2024

APEC Summit 2024
Sayeka Ghosh, 18 November 2024

Busan Plastic Pollution Summit: What happened in Busan? And what didn't?
Kavithasri M, 9 December 2024

The World This Week

December 2022 | CWA # 858

GP Team

January 2019 | CWA # 72

GP Team

The World This Week

The World This Week

The Year That Was & More Questions for 2025

PREVIOUS COMMENTS