The World This Week

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CWA # 1622, 17 March 2025
The World This Week
China’s Two Sessions, Modi’s Mauritius Visit and Canada’s New PM

  GP Team

The World This Week #302 Vol. 7 No. 11, 15 March 2025
 

Femy Francis, Prajwal TV and Vaneeta

China’s Two Sessions in 2025:
Focus on Economy, domestic consumption, critical tech, and defence 
Femy Francis 

What happened? 
On 11 March, China concluded its third 14th National Committee meeting of the Chinese People Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC). This year’s discourse focused on economic goals, reviving domestic consumption, defence spending, investing in high-tech innovation, and private enterprises. Chairman of CPPCC, Wang Huning, called to work towards Chinese modernization and said: “CPPCC should keep enhancing its capacity for political consultation, democratic oversight, and participation in and deliberation of State affairs.” China’s President Xi Jinping called for quality education and said: “To develop a high-quality educational system that meets the people's expectations, the key lies in deepening comprehensive reform of education.” 

What is the background? 
First, a background to the “Two Sessions.” Also known as “Lianghui,” it is the annual consultative meeting of the CPPCC and the NPC. The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference with 2,169 members, is the multiparty organ that works as an advisory to the Communist Party of China. It advises the party on non-party concerns and agenda; they are an advisory body with no legislative or executive powers. The National People’s Congress of 2,977 members is China’s national legislature and “the highest organ of state power.” The NPC discusses the Government Working Report from the previous year and sets the agenda for the year ahead. 

Second, the internal economic, sociological, and political climate. Since Covid-19, the Chinese economy saw a decline, but also a growth of 4.8 per cent in 2024. The economy is further burdened by the housing bubble crisis, lower domestic consumption, and an aging demography with fewer youth willing to marry. The politburo saw restructuring by removing high-ranking officials who either engaged in corruption or did not follow suit with the party/Xi’s ideology. 

Third, the external political and economic climate. Currently, China is dealing with high tariffs imposed by the US administration under Donald Trump, the European Union, and Canada. Trump imposed 20 per cent tariffs on all Chinese products. In retaliation, China imposed tariffs on American agricultural produce and 25 per cent on rare metal exports. Recently, the UK also sanctioned 10 Chinese firms for aiding the Russian defence industry. 

Fourth, economic agenda and funding 2025. China set the GDP target of 5 per cent for 2025 as it aims to double its economy by 2035. The meeting called to stimulate domestic consumption and funded RMB 300 billion for trade-in funding. The Government working report instated the “new quality productive forces” to be the focus of 2025. They include sectors like quantum technology, AI, and biomanufacturing. 

Fifth, high-tech and private enterprises. China has been pioneering in the innovation of high technology. More recently, China’s AI firm Deep Seek made waves around the world for formulating a learning model at a fraction of the cost compared to the US firm OpenAI. Huawei was able to make 7 nanometer chips despite sanctions and restricted access to high technology by the US. On the sidelines of the two sessions, China’s President Xi Jinping made a rare attendance to the symposium of private firms, attended by representatives of all major firms, BYD, Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Xiaomi. Xi said: “Party committees and governments at all levels must base their actions on local conditions and coordinate efforts to ensure the effective implementation of policies and measures for promoting the private sector's development.”

Sixth, lower domestic consumption. China’s internal consumption accounts for 39.2 per cent of the GDP. After Covid-19, there was an economic slump, housing crisis, and unemployment issue. China’s consumers’ purchasing power and confidence have dipped. At the peak of the housing crisis, many people lost their savings over ghost houses. The precarious economic situation has hit the consumer’s confidence to purchase.  

What does it mean? 
First, insulating the economy. In the 2024 GWR, they noted: “Global economic growth lacks steam, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, the multilateral trading system is experiencing disruptions, and tariff barriers continue to increase.” The agenda for 2025 pivots to developing their economy to rely on domestic consumption and sale rather than on export. Aiming to make them shock proof from the changes in the geopolitical climate. 

Second, “Neijuan” - recalibrating investments. Neijuan is the self-harming loop where, due to excessive competition, there is an unregulated investment by firms on resources, hoping to receive gains. This has led to a generation of overcapacity with little to no returns. Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for a comprehensive crackdown on neijuan. The government will recalibrate and regulate investments made. As the Premier called to: “eliminate local protectionism and market fragmentation, and remove bottlenecks in market entry and exit as well as resource allocation.” It can be reckoned that more strategic investments will be made in sectors with high chances of returns, which are the high tech and innovation sectors. 

Modi's Mauritius Visit:
Securing a Free and Open Indian Ocean and the Gateway to Africa 
Prajwal T V

What happened? 
On 11 and 12 March 2025, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Mauritius and met Mauritius’s PM Navinchandra Ramgoolam. Both reaffirmed the deep historical, cultural, and strategic ties between their countries. They committed to transforming their longstanding partnership into a more dynamic Strategic Partnership that spans multiple domains, including political exchanges, economic cooperation, infrastructure development, defense collaboration, space and climate change initiatives, and human resource development.

Multiple agreements were signed during the visit. They include: India’s continued development assistance to Mauritius, expansion of trade under the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CECPA), implementation of new infrastructure projects, and enhanced security and maritime collaboration. India also reaffirmed its role as a "First Responder" to Mauritius during crises, particularly in response to natural disasters. The two also discussed Mauritius’s strategic role in India’s Vision SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

What is the background?
First, a brief note on India-Mauritius historical ties. It dates back to the 18th century when Indians were brought as artisans under French rule. During British rule, from 1834, Indian indentured laborers arrived to work on sugar plantations, with many settling permanently. Today, nearly 70 per cent of Mauritius’s population is of Indian origin. Mahatma Gandhi’s 1901 visit inspired education, political empowerment, and stronger India-Mauritius people-to-people connections. Mauritius honors Gandhi’s legacy by celebrating its National Day on 12 March commemorating the Dandi March. India established diplomatic ties with Mauritius in 1948, before Mauritius became an independent state. A major turning point in the relations came in 1983 when Indira Gandhi’s govt planned military intervention under Operation Lal Dora to prevent a feared coup at the behest of Mauritius PM Anerood Jugnauth, allowing Mauritius to stay in India's security orbit. Since then, India has been Mauritius’s most important foreign partner aiding each other with trade, investments and security cooperation. India has been a key development partner for Mauritius since its independence in 1968, providing significant financial aid and technical expertise in building infrastructure, education, healthcare, and public administration. 

Second, recent developments. During the recent years, New Delhi has deepened its relationship. Major Indian-assisted projects include the Metro Express, Supreme Court Building, 100-bed ENT Hospital, and social housing units. More recently, India also helped Mauritius in disaster relief and humanitarian efforts during Cyclone Chido in December 2024, allowing India to take on the ‘First Responder’ role to Mauritius. The two countries signed CECPA in 2021, India’s first trade agreement with an African country, aiming to boost trade and investment.

Third, Mauritius’s response. Mauritius has played an important role in India’s economic and strategic interests, serving as a gateway for Indian businesses into Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) giving way to 1.3 billion consumers in Africa. Since 2000, Mauritius has contributed USD 175 billion in FDI to India, accounting for 25 per cent of total inflows. Mauritius is also a critical partner in India's maritime security initiatives in the Indian Ocean Region, engaging in intelligence-sharing and joint defense collaborations.

What does it mean?
First, the enhancement of CECPA and the push for trade settlements in local currencies is a move toward reducing dependency on foreign exchange volatility and strengthening economic ties. The CECPA between India and Mauritius covers 310 export items for India, Mauritius will benefit from preferential market access into India for its 615 products. Mauritius’s appeal as a trade gateway to Africa is expected to encourage more Indian investments in key sectors such as fintech, pharmaceuticals, and the ocean economy. The commitment to new infrastructure projects will also create job opportunities and economic growth.

Second, by deepening its strategic partnership with Mauritius, India solidified its influence in the Indian Ocean Region, countering China's growing presence; a greater emphasis was given to a “free, open and secure Indian Ocean”. The agreement reinforces maritime security cooperation and positions Mauritius as a key player in India’s regional security framework. The development of a new runway and jetty in Agalega, with Indian assistance, is an example of the growing defense collaboration. 

Canada’s New Prime Minister:
Who is Mark Carney? What are his immediate Challenges?
Vaneeta

On 14 March 2025, Mark Carney became Canada's twenty-fourth Prime Minister. On 9 March, he won the leadership election of Canada’s Liberal Party. Carney won against three rivals with 86 per cent votes. In his first media address as PM, he said, "We will never, in any shape or form, be part of the US," and calls US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's comment on Canada being the 51st state “crazy.” Earlier in his victory speech, amid the tariff row with the US, he said, "My government will ensure our response has maximum impact in the US and minimal impact here in Canada while supporting the workers impacted."  

Who is Mark Carney, Canada’s new PM?
Mark Joseph Carney, born in 1965 is an economist;  he studied at Harvard and had a successful career as an economist before becoming Canada's new prime minister. He has contributed significantly at many crucial moments. First, reintegration of South Africa into the international bond market post-apartheid while working at Goldman Sachs. Second, during the financial crisis in 2008, as governor of the Bank of Canada, his expertise in risk assessment and financial strategy helped Canada. Third, during Brexit, as governor of the Bank of England, he minimised the economic instability and helped in the transition.    
Carney does not have prior political experience, but his extensive experience in leadership and management in the private and public sectors makes him a reliable candidate at times when the trade war is knocking on Canada's doorstep. 

What led to Carney’s election?
First is Justin Trudeau's resignation as Canadian PM and party leader. On 6 January 2025, Trudeau resigned from the Liberal Party leadership and as head of government amid disastrous opinion polls and party pressure. This led to a new election to choose a new leader for the liberal party and the new PM. 

Second, Mark Carney’s financial sustainability expertise. Carney has extensive knowledge of economic crisis management and has successfully managed in the past, from the Russian financial crisis in 1998 to the 2008 crisis. His prior reputation as a respected financial leader played a crucial role in his election amid escalating trade tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump.

Third, the liberal party’s strategic shift. The rising cost of living, housing unaffordability, crime and a strained healthcare system in Canada made the ruling party unpopular, and polls showed the conservative party led by Poilievre as favourites. Therefore, the change in leadership amid Trump's threats shows a strategic shift to address the issue and revive public confidence. Carney’s policy agendas are centrist, a change from Trudeau, who moved the Liberals to the left.

What are the key challenges for the new PM?   
First, relations with the US. Donald Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium. As a result, Canada announced 25 per cent retaliatory tariffs on these metals along with computer and sports equipment. In his victory speech, Carney called tariffs “unjustified tariffs” and said that Trump was "attacking Canadian workers, families, and businesses." His big challenge is to balance Canada’s interests an manage the relationship with the largest trading partner.  

Second, addressing domestic economic issues. The cost of living in Canada has gone up, and people are struggling to afford houses. He has promised major investments in housing and clean energy projects, also tax cuts for middle-class families. Furthermore, diversifying the economy away from the US will be crucial for his tenure.
  
Third, managing Justin Trudeau’s legacy. He has left a multifaced legacy from 2008 to March 2025. He became popular by pushing progressive values. Primarily, he will be remembered for his social policy.  He legalised cannabis, allowed euthanasia and introduced dental care, pharma care and government-subsidized childcare. Additionally, the affordability crisis and inflation. During his tenure, he increased government spending to rely on high tax revenue, which worked in his favour, but COVID-19 disturbed the economy and led to deficits. Moreover, the housing crisis was a major problem in Canada in 2024, leading to his unpopularity with a 22 per cent approval rating in December 20024. 

Fourth, Canada’s climate policy and environmental commitment. Carney has been an advocate for sustainability and climate change awareness. He was a UN Special Envoy on Climate Change in 2019. However, contradictory to his beliefs, as a new PM, he might need to cut the pollution tax he championed. The opposition in Canada has linked pollution tax to the affordability crisis, and the slogan “axe the tax” became popular. Similarly, his victory speech mentioned making Canada “an energy superpower” with solar, wind, and “conventional” energy. All these decisions as a leader, which are against what he said before, pose a challenge. 

What does Mark Carney mean for India- Canada relations?
As Canada's new PM, Mark Carney, will be a potential turning point for India-Canada relations. Carney has expressed a desire to mend ties with India. He wants to expand trade relations with like-minded countries and said, "...there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India.” The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) talks might restart under him, which were pushed when Trudeau was PM. Carney is expected to bring a stable diplomatic relationship with India, boosting trade, immigration, etc. Some reports say India’s Ministry of External Affairs is thinking of restoring the Indian High Commissioner to Canada.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Rohini Reenum, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Anu Maria Joseph, Nuha Amina, Ayan Datta, C Shraddha, and Nova Karun K 

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Looks to enhance bilateral cooperation with Laos
On 13 March, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Laos counterpart Thongsavanh Phomvihane in Beijing where they pledged to further bilateral community of shared future. Wang Yi noted that over 64 years, both countries have stood together through challenges and mutual support and that that the comprehensive partnership has grown stronger. Wang Yi said: “China firmly supports Laos in strengthening the leadership of its party and is willing to enhance strategic mutual trust, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and promote the building of a China-Laos community with a shared future.” He noted that China welcomes Laos to invest in new opportunities provided by China. Thongsavanh congratulated China for concluding their Two Session meeting and the outcomes they came out with. He also lauded China’s “leapfrog” development in the face of a complex external environment. He said: “Laos firmly adheres to the one-China policy and is ready to work with China to achieve greater progress in building a Laos-China community with a shared future.”

China: Africa Energy Chamber signs MoU with China on “Invest in African Energies Forum in Shanghai”
On 13 March, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) signed MoUs for the “Invest in African Energies Forum in Shanghai.” The agreement aims to support the China-Africa energy sector by furthering partnership and technological exchanges. The first deal was signed with a tech firm, Tima Networks, where the company will bring automated fleet management technology to Africa. The second deal was signed with Yunan County Chuangxing Industrial Investment Group to develop a strategic framework for cooperation between China and the African energy sector and chemical industry. The forum is the first of its kind in scale as well, where it offers African firms to collaborate on the energy sector and Chinese firms to invest in African companies.

China: “CPEC remains central to our vision of connectivity,” says Pakistan’s President
On 10 March, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari expressed that CPEC and Gwadar port have the potential to transform Pakistan as the center of international trade. Zardari believes that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has the potential to provide vital connectivity for many regions. The president asked the federal government of Pakistan to prioritize CPEC and Gwadar portas they will become the gateway to Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Zardari also noted the joint sessions between the two countries and said: “Through our recent engagements with the Chinese leadership, both nations have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening economic cooperation.” And that: “We will continue to further strengthen our economic and strategic ties with Beijing, cement our all-weather strategic cooperative partnership, and support the one-China policy.” Zardari emphasized that domestic and regional connectivity is paramount for Pakistan’s development and that there is an underlying need for efficient transport and infrastructure development. 

China: Russia, and Iran to discuss Tehran signing nuclear deal amid US pressure
On 12 March, China announced that it would hold talks with Russia and Iran on the new deal on latter’s nuclear program, says China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They informed that they will host delegates after the closed-door session at the UN Security Council. The discussion is in light of renewed pressure by the US to get Tehran to sign a nuclear deal that would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “developments related to the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions,” will be discussed by the three countries. A week earlier, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov informed that they will help the international community and Trump administration to push Iran to sign the nuclear deal. International Atomic Energy Agency informed that Iran has been accelerating the uranium production to 60 per cent purity, coming closer to developing nuclear weapons. 

China: Russia, and Iran engage in joint naval drill at the Strait of Hormuz
On 11 March, China, Iran, and Russia conducted joint naval drills in the Middle East. The Maritime Security Belt 2025 drill took place in Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, which witnesses one-fifth of the world's crude oil trade worldwide. This is the fifth year since the three countries took part in the trilateral drills. On the drills, British military’s Maritime Trade Operation Centre, informed that there was GPS interference in the strait. It is reckoned that this was because of GPS jamming to reduce targeting capabilities of drones and missiles, informs EOS Risk Group analyst Shaun Robertson. He said: “However, electronic navigation system interference has been reported in this region previously during periods of increased tension and military exercises.” 

China: Facebook worked with the Communist Party to censor social media, alleges former Facebook Global Public Policy Director
On 11 March, an interview was published in BBC titled “Facebook was 'hand in glove' with China,” by the former senior Facebook executive Sarah Wynn Williams. Sarah told BBC that Facebook went above and beyond to cater to the Chinese government’s demand to censor and control content being circulated in China. Sarah was a Global Public Policy Director and was terminated in 20217 for poor performance. She said that in return to Facebook adhering to Communist Party of China’s rules, it wanted access to the Chinese market with hundreds and millions of users. Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook, said in 2019: “We could never come to an agreement on what it would take for us to operate there, and they [China] never let us in.” Sarah told BBC: “He was working hand in glove with the Chinese Communist Party, building a censorship tool… working to develop sort of the antithesis of many of the principles that underpin Facebook.”

China: Bangladesh’s 90 per cent pupils have a positive outlook on China, says Center for Alternatives
On 13 March, Xinhua reported that a Center for Alternatives survey found that 90 per cent of Bangladeshi nationals have a positive stance on China. The survey titled: “National Image of China in Bangladesh” found that China and Bangladesh's economic relations have improved, and the people’s perception of Chinese society and economy is positive. The findings were compared with surveys conducted in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The survey found that there has been a growing acknowledgment of China’s cultural heritage and global influence. It was noted that most respondents lauded China’s role in the international arena. Executive Director of the Centre for Alternative, Imtiaz Ahmed, noted that there is a positive outlook towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the people now expect more investments and people-to-people exchange with China. 

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Singapore: Singapore looks to buy more submarines, titans, and drones for enhancing its defence
On 13 March, Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen announced that it would buy two more submarines, new infantry vehicles, and other defence hardware. The defence minister during his speech on the ministry budget made it clear that they want to improve the defence system, invest more in the military, and take steps in achieving its vision of transforming the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) into a next-generation defence by 2040. The defence minister provided strong signals that the SAF has been taking strong lessons from the conflicts around the world, especially from the Ukraine, and Red Sea shipping crisis, and wants to take decisive steps to prepare for future scenarios. Dr Ng also highlighted the stark asymmetry in the costs between the aggressor who launches a swarm of low-cost drones and the defender who spends over 15 times the cost of the drones to nullify the attack. 

Philippines: Former President Duterte to appear in International Criminal Court for defending charges of murder linked to drug war
On 14 March, former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte would make his first appearance before the International Criminal Court (ICC), after his arrest in Manila, under the charges of murder linked to the drug war. The 79-year-old is under the ICC warrant and will be read his rights, and formally introduced to the charges posed against him. He is accused for the death of 6,000 people to 30,000 people according to the number estimated by human rights groups. The court has yet to set a date for his hearing, at which the judges will assess whether there is enough evidence to proceed for a full trial, which could take years. 

Myanmar: Junta leader visits China to discuss ties, scam crackdown and peace between the two countries
On 12 March, the Myanmar Junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing went to China’s diplomatic embrace, meeting with its Special Envoy for Asian Affairs after returning from Russia and Belarus. The leader met with Deng Xijun, in Naypyitaw to discuss China’s support for the junta's planned elections, crackdown on the scam compounds, and border trade. This meeting aims to enhance bilateral ties, stabilize the Myanmar-China border and boost cooperation to combat fraud and scams.

Bhutan: Four power purchase agreements inked with India
On 10 March, India and Bhutan inked four key power agreements that are set to enhance bilateral energy partnership. Druk Green Power Corporation (DGPC) and PTC India signed the agreements to enhance trade in electricity, energy security and promote mutual economic interests. This move would ensure that Bhutan remains a key contributor to the region's energy security. Under the first agreement, the Power Purchase Agreement for electricity exports from the Chhukha hydropower plant to India has been extended for two more years. The second agreement allows Bhutan to import 2000 MW electricity from India during winter as the river discharge are low. The third agreement increases the power sales limit from Bhutan's Nikachhu hydropower plant to India's energy exchange, to 60 MW from 50 MW. Lastly, both sides also agreed to the First Supplementary Agreement to export surplus power from the 64 MW Basochhu hydropower plant to India. 

Bangladesh: UN Secretary Guterres visits Dhaka to meet Rohingyas
On 13 March, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres arrived in Dhaka on a four-day visit to bring the Rohingya crisis to the global forefront. This visit is part of the UN Secretary's yearly Ramzan visit to Muslim communities residing in difficult circumstances to "observe fast with them & help shine a spotlight on their plight." He was scheduled to meet Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain, and High Representative on Rohingya Crisis and Priority Issues Khalilur Rahman. This will be followed by an iftar event with more than 100,000 Rohingyas and a dialogue with youth and civil society. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Rafiqul Alam said: "We are expecting his visit to draw global attention and stronger response to the humanitarian crisis as well as addressing the Rohingyas crisis in a sustainable way, which is their repatriation to Myanmar."

Pakistan: Pakistan and Afghanistan jirgas resume talks to address Torkham closure
On 13 March, the tribal leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to re-start dialogue to ease border tensions at Torkham. According to sources reported by The News International, Pakistan’s jirga has revised its delegation members list to address the Afghan jirga’s concerns. The previous dialogue was delayed due to objections raised by the Afghan side over some members of the Pakistani delegation. In response, Pakistan revised its list of 50 members which was welcomed by the Afghan side. In this regard, a formal meeting may be scheduled in a day or two to arrive at a “resolution of the border crisis.” The border closure of Torkham is in place since 21 February. Clashes had erupted after Pakistan objected to construction activities carried out by the Afghan forces at zero point, a violation of border protocols. Subsequently, tribal leaders from both sides had come together for discussions. 

Pakistan: Balochistan Liberation Army hijacks Jaffer Express in Bolan, Balochistan
On 11 March, a train named Jaffer Express which was travelling from Quetta to Peshawar was hijacked near Balochistan’s Bolan district. The terrorists opened fire at the train and took a large number of hostages. Subsequently, a rescue operation was launched and on 12 March, the military announced that the hijack had come to an end. Information Minister Atta Tarar in a separate communique informed about the “successful completion” of the rescue “operation” as all held hostages were rescued. The Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG-ISPR) Lt General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry informed that a total number of 33 militants were neutralized in the operation. He, however, did not mention the exact number of held hostages who have been saved. Further, he informed about the contribution from the “army, air force, Frontier Corps and SSG personnel” in the rescue operation. The banned Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for the attack. There have also been reports of the militants being in contact with their “foreign facilitators.”

Iran: Supreme leader Khamenei dismisses Trump’s call for negotiations on the nuclear deal
On 12 March, Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s Supreme Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has termed US President Donald Trump’s call for negotiating a new nuclear deal “a deception aimed at shaping global opinion.” This was in response to a letter that was sent by President Trump last week to Iran which was handed over by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Khamenei also referenced Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 as reason for his lack of faith in any new negotiation. On the other hand, since coming to power, Trump has tried to bring Iran to the table for negotiating a new nuclear deal while maintaining “maximum pressure.”

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
Syria: Interim President Al-Sharaa signs integration deal with Syrian Democratic Forces
On 10 March, Syria’s Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Commander of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, signed an agreement that aims to merge the SDF into the HTS-led Syrian armed forces and incorporate SDF-controlled regions under government control. Since the SDF controls territories in Kurdish-majority northwestern Syria, amounting to almost 25 per cent of Syria’s official territorial space, the deal sought to bring most of Syria under the HTS-led government’s control. As per the terms of the deal, to be implemented by the end of 2025, all of northwestern Syria’s border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, airports and oil fields would be under government control. In exchange, the HTS will guarantee Syria’s Kurds their “constitutional rights”, including the right to propagate and teach their language, which was banned during the Assad era. The deal also sought to encourage displaced Kurds, who fled the country during the civil war, to return home by promising them Syrian citizenship. Furthermore, the agreement promises to include all Syrians in the country’s political process, irrespective of religion and ethnicity. The deal marked a success for the HTS, which has been struggling to establish territorial control in its southern and coastal regions. 

Israel: Border negotiations with Lebanon re-started
On 11 March, Israel and Lebanon agreed to re-open negotiations to delineate their border. The decision was reached after a four-party meeting at the UN peacekeeping force headquarters in Lebanon’s Naqoura, where Israeli and Lebanese representatives met their US and French counterparts, the latter having been appointed to monitor the now-expired Israel-Hezbollah deal. After the discussions, Israel and Lebanon announced three joint working groups which would focus on the five points along the latter’s border still occupied by Israel, the status of the “Blue Line,” which marks the de-facto boundary between the two countries, the sites of disputes along the border and the fate of Lebanese citizens detained by Israel. As a goodwill gesture before the talks, Israel released four Lebanese detainees, with a fifth one scheduled to be released on 12 March. The negotiations marked a step forward for Israel and Lebanon in resolving their disputes since they are yet to delineate a land boundary mutually, with only a maritime border negotiated in 2022.

Syria: Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani visits Baghdad to revitalize bilateral ties
On 14 March, Syria's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Assad al-Shaibani, visited Baghdad to “renew the unity of Syria and Iraq and emphasise deep bilateral ties.” Al-Shaibani claimed that the two countries shared a common destiny and should combat foreign threats and interference unitedly. The statement was a possible reference to Iran, which used to enjoy extensive influence over Syria through Hezbollah and continues to enjoy influence in Iraq. Furthermore, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader stressed that Syria was prepared to cooperate with Iraq in the latter’s fight against ISIS, going to the extent of saying that “Syria and Iraq’s security is one.” The purpose of his visit, al-Shaibani stated, was to enhance trade between the two neighbouring countries, especially by opening their borders. HTS leader acknowledged that there would be obstacles in the process, but he was confident that these could be resolved through bilateral engagement. In response, Al-Shaibani’s Iraqi counterpart, Fuad Hussein, viewed Iraq and Syria as common victims of Ba'ath party policies, referring to the similarities between the Baathist policies of Syria’s Assad dynasty and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. 

Israel: Hamas welcomes Trump’s reversal on Gaza displacement plan
On 12 March, Hamas welcomed US President Donald Trump’s reversal of his proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza and turn it into a “Middle East Riviera.” The group’s Spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, stated, “If US President Trump’s statements represent a retreat from any idea of displacing the people of the Gaza Strip, they are welcomed.” Hamas’ statements followed Trump’s statement “nobody is expelling any Palestinians from Gaza” during a White House meeting. Trump’s reversal appeared to come after a meeting in Qatar, where the President’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Arab Foreign Ministers to discuss Gaza’s post-war reconstruction.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
South Africa: The EU promises EUR 4.7 billion investment in green energy and vaccine production
On 13 March, the EU announced EUR 4.7 billion investment for South Africa to support green energy and vaccine production. This was announced during the bilateral summit between the EU and South Africa held in Cape Town. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated: “South Africa remains an emblem of hope for the world. Today, we are together announcing an investment package to mobilize EUR 4.7 billion in South Africa.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa responded: “This is the time to work together in defence of what we believe in - democracy, the rule of law, including the respect for international law and international humanitarian law.” The EU promised to continue to support the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a multilateral initiative on reducing carbon emission. 

South Africa: Revised budget draws criticism from coalition partners
On 13 March, BBC reported on tensions in South Africa after the Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana presented the budget for a second time. The budget has drawn criticism within the coalition, leading to a division. Failing to secure a simple majority, the African National Congress (ANC) formed a coalition- “National Unity Government (NUG)” with the support of nine other political parties during the July 2024 election. The coalition includes the major opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA). The ANC seems to be in crisis as without the DA’s support, NUG would not be able to pass the budget. Previously, Godongwana postponed the budget over disagreements on the value-added tax. Although in the current budget, a reduction in VAT has been announced, it failed to appease the DA. The DA leaders say that it would not "support any increase in taxes unless those increases were temporary and the ANC agree to a series of major reforms" that would grow the economy, reduce waste and create jobs within the next three years.

Sudan: The African Union’s Peace and Security Council rejects RSF’s parallel government
On 13 February, the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC) rejected the declaration of a “peace and unity” parallel government by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan with Kenya’s support. Following the AU meeting, the PSC urged its members and the international community not to recognize the parallel government. The AU has reiterated its commitment towards upholding Sudan's sovereignty and has urged for a peaceful negotiation to end the ongoing civil war.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: To boost trade and economic relations with Uzbekistan
On 13 March, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met FrenchPresident Emmanuel Macron in Paris. The two leaders met at the Elysee Palace. Both leaders intend to strengthen their relationship by improving trade and economic relations. Mirziyoyev and Macron signed a joint declaration on strategic partnership. Leaders' documents were exchanged, mutual agreements on specialist and student mobility, mutual visa exemption for diplomatic passport holders, and cooperation program for implementation of projects worth EUR 6.5 billion were agreed upon. 

The EU: To impose counter tariffs on the US to protect businesses
On 12 March, the European Commission said it would begin enforcing tariffs against the US by April. The US has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium exported by the EU. The European commission said: “It would impose countermeasures to protect the European businesses, workers and consumers.” The objective of these tariffs is to ensure that the total value of the EU imports corresponds to the increase in prices of EU exports to the US due to the latter’s imposition of tarfiffs. President, Ursula Von der Leyen said: “As the US are applying tariffs worth USD 28 billion, we are responding with countermeasures worth EUR 26 billion.” She added that the EU was open for negotiations, and believes that with the geopolitical and economic uncertainties, it is not in our common interest to burden the European economies with tariffs.  

Greenland: Centre-right opposition parties win the highest vote shares in the 2025 elections
On 12 March, Greenland’s center-right opposition parties Demokraatit and Naleraq won the highest vote share in the recent elections. On 11 March, Greenland had its parliamentary elections, which were witnessed by many across the world. Greenland has a population of 56,000 e, which is a part of the Danish empire. This island is the home to many rare earth minerals that can be used for 21st century technology. Voters will elect 31 lawmakers to the Inatsisartut, and Greenland’s parliament and seats will be distributed based on the number of votes. The parties participating in the election include Prime Minister Mute Bourup- Inuit Ataqatigiit, Siumut which were in power before the recent elections. With Greenland being rich in minerals, Greenlanders are looking towards open businesses and investments. Majority of the Greenlanders want independence, and have rejected Trump’s proposition to occupy the island. 

Portugal: Prime Minister Montenegro loses confidence vote leading to government collapse
On 11 March, Prime Minister of Portugal, Luis Montenegro lost the vote of confidence in the parliament. The opposition ousted his government after 11 months in office. The minority government was made up of his Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the CDS-People’s Party (CDS-PP). The vote of confidence was called against Montenegro after a potential conflict of interest emerged. Opposition lawmakers have demanded more details on the matter, with the centre-left Socialist Party going as far as to call on an official parliamentary inquiry. In response, the Prime Minister denied any wrongdoing. He said: “He will stand as his party’s representative even if the government collapses.”

Ireland: US President convenes meeting with Taoiseach Michael Martin at the Oval office ahead of St. Patrick's day 
On 13 March, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Michael Martin met US President Donald Trump at the Oval office, Washington. The Taoiseach is on a five-day visit to the US as  part of the annual St Patrick's day visit. During the meeting, Trump pointed the huge trade deficit with Ireland. The trade deficit was because of US pharmaceutical firms moving to Ireland, thus leading to a surge of pharma exports from Ireland to the US. Targeting the EU, Trump expressed his discontent over how the bloc caused delays in his plans to further develop his Doonbeg hotel in Ireland. He said "that was the first experience with the EU and I dropped the project. It was a very bad experience I had." He also expressed his unhappiness over how the EU coerced Apple to pay USD 16 billion to Ireland. Taoiseach reminded US President that Ireland "fought" along side with Apple against the EU. 

About the Authors
Femy Francis is a Research assistant at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).  Prajwal TV is an undergraduate student of Journalism, International Relations, and Peace Studies at St Joseph’s University, Bangalore. Vaneeta is a post-graduate scholar from Pondicherry University. Rohini Reenum is a Doctoral Student at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Rohini Reenum is a Doctoral Student at NIAS. Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Nova Karun K is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad. Fleur Elizabeth Philip and C Shraddha are Research interns at NIAS.

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