Japan-China Tensions over Taiwan & the Brazil COP 30 Summit

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The World This Week

Japan-China Tensions over Taiwan & the Brazil COP 30 Summit

The World This Week #333&334, Vol 7, No 42 & 44, 19 November 2025

GP Team
17 November 2025

Femy Francis & Akriti Sharma

Japan-China Tensions over PM Takaichi’s statement on Taiwan
Femy Francis

What happened?
On 15 November, China’s Embassy in Japan warned its citizens against travelling to Japan, citing that “Recently, Japanese leaders have made blatantly provocative remarks regarding Taiwan, severely damaging the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges.” This poses significant risks to the safety of Chinese citizens in Japan.

On 7 November, the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made statements in support of Taiwan and said: “If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation,” for Japan. This statement was vehemently opposed in Chinese social media and ministries, with China’s Ministry of External Affairs calling it “egregious.”

On 8 November, remarks by China’s Consul General in Japan, Xue Jian, especially escalated the issue when he said: “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off.” Takaichi refused to retract her statements, stating that they are consistent with the government's traditional position. China’s Foreign Minister warned Japan to avoid meddling in their cross-strait affairs and summoned the Japanese ambassador to China. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong stated that the remarks were dangerous, and a travel warning for Chinese citizens to Japan was soon issued.

What is the background?
First, Japan and Taiwan relations. The first Sino-Japanese War from 1894-1895 ended with the Treaty of Shimonoseki, where China recognised the independence of Korea and ceded Taiwan. The second, the Sino-Japanese War 1937-1945, ended with Japan returning Taiwan to China after it lost in World War II. Japan is Taiwan’s third largest partner, and Taiwan is Japan’s fourth largest partner, with USD 72 billion in trade in 2024. Additionally, Taiwan has always been a geostrategic location for Japan due to its proximity to the Ryukyu Islands. Taiwan’s de facto Embassy in Japan 2024 survey found that 77 per cent of Japanese citizens felt that they are closer to Taiwan, and 73 per cent believed that Taiwan has good relations with Japan.

Second, Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi on China and Taiwan. During her time as the Economic Security Minister, she heavily criticised the economic dependency on China and advocated for stringent FDIs to curb Chinese influence. Takaichi also views Taiwan as a key security partner, calling it the “forward outpost” for Japan’s security. Her approach is different from her predecessors, who avoided or stressed little on the Taiwan security issue.

Third, a brief note on “survival-threatening situation” that PM Takaichi referred to citing the 2015 Security Law. She said: “A Chinese military attack on Taiwan might constitute a survival-threatening situation.” The law, in rare circumstances, allows Japan to use collective self-defence even if they are not directly attacked. It is noted that if a country close to Japan comes under attack and this also poses a threat to Japan, Japan’s Self-Defence Forces may be legally used to assist the ally. Takaichi’s statements were made considering that any attack on Taiwan is threatening to Japan’s Southwestern Islands, their trade routes and border security.

What does it mean?
First, Takaichi’s hard stance on China. Even though Takaichi’s stance on China was tougher than the previous administrations. She has no plan to cut all economic ties or sever their relations with China. But it can be reckoned that under her administration, the presence of Chinese investments and influence will be actively limited and a more hawkish view towards China will be practised.

Second, conservative influence. Takaichi’s recent remarks reflected the conservative nationalist polices in Japan that she has been endorsing in her campaign. Her tenure can also expect to see stronger national defence policies, as she called to increase the defence spending and to revise Article 9 to have stronger missile capabilities. Her policy towards China is a reflection of these values, viewing Taiwan as a deterrent to the larger Chinese security threat is convincing in the region.

Third, active de-escalation. Since the comments were made, China’s ministers and ministries have actively condemned the statement and have demanded that Japan retract it. Japan, on the other hand, at first stood firm with what Takaichi said, but now it can be seen that active steps are being taken to de-escalate the situation. Japan has sent their envoy over to calm the situation, but it refuses to take the comments back. This has already affected both the tourism and entertainment industries, with China issuing travel advisories and delaying the release of Japanese films.

Climate Change: COP30 begins with full momentum and high expectations
Akriti Sharma

What happened?
On 10 November, the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) kicked off at Belem, Brazil.

On 11 November, at the opening plenary session of the COP30 at Belem, President of Brazil, Lula da Silva said: “We are moving in the right direction but at the wrong speed,” He added: “Crossing 1.5°C is a risk we cannot take,”; “climate change is not a threat to the future, it is a tragedy of the present.” Calling COP30, the COP of truth, he said: “now is the moment to defeat the denialists,” and “without the Paris Agreement the world would suffer from catastrophic warming.”

On 12 November, on the second day, hundreds of protestors belonging to indigenous communities marched in the venue breaching security barriers. The protestors held flags saying: “Our land is not for sale.”

What is the background?
First, the critical significance of COP at Belem. COP Belem comes at a point where the US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, and the Trump administration, being the denial of climate change, has resorted to aggressive usage of fossil fuels while pressuring other countries to promote energy consumption through trade deals. As the climate negotiations return to Brazil after 33 years of the Rio Summit in 1992, COP30 is being called the COP of implementation, as it urges parties not to discuss ideas but focus on effective action and implementation. COP30, being held in a developing country, sets the tone for justice and equity through increased climate finance, not as charity but justice.

Second, the call to action and the agenda. In his speech, President Lula gave a call to action in three parts. First, he appealed to countries to abide by commitments and implement their NDCs, calling for more finance, capacity, and technology for developing countries. Second, he emphasized the need to overcome fossil fuel dependence and halt deforestation. Third, he urged the international community to keep people at the core of the climate agenda, as many have been disproportionately affected by its severe impacts despite contributing the least to it. He also stressed reducing asymmetries between the Global North and Global South. COP30 will focus on major agenda points, the new USD 1.3 trillion finance roadmap, and aligning financial flows. Adaptation and mitigation are also central, with negotiations on the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators, national action plans, and global stocktake follow-up. Additional flashpoints include loss and damage, carbon markets, the Just Transition Work Programme, and debates on unilateral trade measures and transparency reporting.

Third, COP30 is significant for the indigenous communities. President Lula highlighted the significance of COP being held at Belem in the Amazon region, the world’s largest river basin, home to indigenous communities, which have been frontline defenders of wildlife protection, biodiversity conservation, and climate-regulating ecosystems. Yet, they face displacement, deforestation, and climate impacts. This COP is politically significant as the world gathers in the Amazon region, indigenous knowledge and people are more visible and recognised.

What does it mean?
First, climate multilateralism is on the edge. The withdrawal of the world’s largest historical emitter, the US, from the Paris Agreement has severely undermined international cooperation. It’s climate denialism, and a renewed push towards fossil fuels sets a dangerous precedent, weakening climate action and the trust in the UNFCCC system. This has exposed the weakness of the current climate regime and the need to rethink climate multilateralism that is credible and equitable.

Second, missing targets and more action are needed. While it is clear that the world is on the verge of missing the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, there is an urgent need to accelerate climate action. Global climate cooperation has been accused of “not walking the talk”. Therefore, countries need to recalibrate their national priorities to include the climate agenda.

Third, justice and equity-driven climate action. Despite the need for more climate action, it is crucial to ensure that the countries that contributed the least to the current problem are not burdened with climate action. The developed and developing countries are gridlocked on various contentious issues, including finance. The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities must guide climate action to ensure justice.

Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Aparna A Nair, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, M Kejia, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Vaihali
Chittrothu

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
COP30 Climate Summit: Pikachu-costumed activists urge Japan to stop funding fossil-fuel projects
On 15 November, the media reported the protest took place a day earlier during the COP30 summit in Belem, Brazil. Activists wore Pikachu costumes and staged a protest during the energy-themed day of the COP30 climate summit, calling on Japan to halt its overseas fossil-fuel investments. According to a study cited by protesters, Japan’s government-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation provided USD 6.4 billion in loans for coal projects and USD 874 million for gas projects between 2016 and 2024. Demonstrators argued that these investments undermine fossil-fuel phase-out efforts in Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Japan’s delegation declined to respond directly to the figures but stated that its cooperation with Southeast Asian nations aims to support “decarbonisation, economic growth and energy security simultaneously through various pathways.”

China and Japan: Beijing asks its citizens "to avoid travelling to Japan in the near future"; Tokyo firm on its stance on Taiwan
On 14 November, the BBC reported that China's embassy in Japan asked its citizens not to travel to Japan over "blatantly provocative remarks regarding Taiwan," amid heightened diplomatic tensions. Additionally, China's Foreign military spokesperson said, "If Japan dares to attempt an armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation, it would be an act of aggression and definitely meet a firm response from China,” and “We will firmly exercise our right to self-defence under the United Nations Charter and international law and defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Xinhua have reported that China's Vice Foreign Minister stated that the remarks made by Japan's PM are "extremely wrong and dangerous and also added that "otherwise all consequences must be borne by Japan." Japan's ambassador stated that the country has not changed their position on Taiwan and "It is the consistent position of the Japanese government that we hope for a peaceful resolution of issues surrounding Taiwan through dialogue."

China and Japan: Diplomatic row over Japan's statement on Taiwan
On 14 November, China's ambassador to Japan was summoned to Tokyo after the tit-for-tat showdown regarding Prime Minister Takaichi's comments of a military intervention in response to any Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, commented, "the dirty necks that sticks itself in must be cut off" in a post on X that has now been deleted, leading to Japanese officials calling for his expulsion. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin said, "Should the Japanese side fail to draw lessons from history and dare to take a risk, or even use force to interfere in the Taiwan question, it will only suffer a crushing defeat against the steel-willed People's Liberation Army and pay a heavy price," in retaliation to the remarks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has also raised serious concerns about recent Japanese military and security moves, as well as the uncertainty regarding their nuclear principles.

The US and South Korea: Major trade deal on shipping investment and industrial development unveiled; Washington vows support for Seoul's nuclear-submarine ambitions
On 14 November, the US and South Korea, in a joint announcement, released details of a trade agreement that includes a USD 150 billion Korean investment in the US shipbuilding sector and an additional USD 200 billion reserved for industrial sectors. The announcement follows a meeting in October between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and President Donald Trump, during which the two leaders agreed to reduce the US import duties on South Korean goods from 25 per cent to 15 per cent. South Korea's Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signed a 27-point non-binding memorandum of understanding on strategic investments. It outlines a schedule for implementing projects to be selected by the US president in consultation with South Korea, with Seoul required to transfer the necessary funds within 45 days of each decision. President Lee stated that under the agreement, South Korea will form a new partnership with the US on shipbuilding, AI, and the nuclear industry, aiding its ally "rebuild crucial industries just as the US helped South Korea in the past." He remarked that South Korea-US trade, commerce, and security negotiations were among the "biggest variables affecting our economy and security", and that "President Trump's rational decision played a significant role in achieving meaningful agreement." The White House also released a fact sheet revealing that the US approved the building of South Korea's nuclear-powered submarines and will work closely with Seoul to find "avenues to source fuel." Washington also agreed to South Korea's request that the planned USD 200 billion in cash investments be disbursed in annual instalments capped at USD 20 billion to help maintain stability in the won. According to the fact sheet, both sides agreed that South Korea's investments should not "give rise to market instability."

The US and Taiwan: Washington approves the sale of fighter jets and aircraft parts worth USD 330 million to Taipei
On 13 November, the United States approved a USD 330 million worth sale of fighter jets and aircraft parts to Taiwan, the first such transaction under President Trump. According to the Pentagon, "The proposed sale will improve the recipient's capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient's fleet of F-16, C-130," and other aircraft. The US has a formal diplomatic relationship with China; however, it maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan and is legally required to support Taiwan's self-defence. Taiwan's presidential office welcomed the decision, stating that "The deepening of the Taiwan-U.S. security partnership is an important cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region." Taiwan's defence ministry said the sale would "take effect" within a month and improve its air defence and response to China's "gray-zone" incursions. China expressed its reservations over the move, with its foreign ministry spokesperson stating, "the Taiwan question is the core of China's core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations."

China-Spain: President Xi Jinping proposes a partnership with "great global influence" as Beijing seeks support within the EU in return for greater economic security for Madrid
On 12 November, President Xi Jinping proposed to Spain’s King Felipe VI a partnership with "great global influence" as China seeks closer ties with the EU in return for economic cooperation. Felipe’s visit, the first by a Spanish monarch to China in 18 years, reflects Madrid’s efforts to attract Chinese investment in the backdrop of US pressure to increase NATO spending. Beijing aims to ease trade frictions with the EU over its subsidised electric vehicle sector and diversify markets as tensions with Washington challenge its exports. "China stands ready to work hand-in-hand with Spain to build a comprehensive strategic partnership," President Xi stated, suggesting plans for firms to "jointly explore third markets such as Latin America,” as per state media reports. The leaders oversaw the signing of 10 cooperation agreements, including on food safety, language education, and space. Further, Premier Li Qiang in his meeting with King Felipe said the state encouraged Chinese investment in Spain’s photovoltaic, green hydrogen, and power battery sectors.

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Pakistan-Afghanistan: Interior Minister says Afghan nationals were responsible for the two recent suicide bombings in Pakistan
On 13 November, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi stated that Afghan nationals were responsible for two recent suicide bombings in Pakistan, amid escalating tensions between the two neighbours over cross-border militancy. Addressing the parliament, Naqvi stated that both attackers had been identified as Afghans and added, "It is our major, serious concern," highlighting that Pakistan had repeatedly brought up security issues with the Taliban administration in Kabul. The Islamabad attack on 11 November killed 12 people and injured 27, while another bombing on 10 November targeted a military school in South Waziristan, killing three. On the same day, Dawn reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif accused both Afghanistan and India of involvement in recent terrorist incidents, warning of a “befitting response.” Islamabad maintains that the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups operating from Afghan territory receive alleged backing from India, reported Reuters.

Australia-Indonesia: Canberra and Jakarta agree on a new security treaty
On 12 November, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia and Indonesia have agreed on a new security treaty, committing both nations to consult each other “if either or both countries’ security is threatened.” PM Albanese called the treaty an expansion of prior agreements and a step toward regular security dialogue between leaders. President Prabowo stated that “our determination is to maintain the best of relationships in order to enhance and guarantee security for both of our countries.” Indonesia maintains a non-aligned foreign policy, prioritizing cooperation without formal military alignments. According to Australia’s Foreign Minister, the treaty was modelled on a 1995 agreement which was withdrawn in 1999 over East Timor; and is expected to be signed next year. Analysts note that unlike Australia’s recent defence pact with Papua New Guinea, this treaty does not mandate joint action. However, PM Albanese could show that relations with Indonesia were back on a stable footing, while for President Prabowo it represented “classic balancing behaviour,” reassuring Australia over any perceptions that Indonesia was moving closely toward Russia or China.

Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict: Dispute reignited over mutual claims of ceasefire violations
On 12 November, the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict flared up as both countries traded accusations of opening fire along the disputed border, threatening the current truce. On 11 November, Thailand announced the suspension of an enhanced US-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by the two countries in October, and Thailand’s foreign ministry demanded an apology from Cambodia, raising accusations of laying fresh landmines that maimed a soldier on 10 November. Cambodia denied the charges and urged Thailand to comply with the October deal. Cambodia’s defence ministry stated that Thai troops opened fire near a disputed border village, leaving one civilian dead and three injured. Thailand’s army spokesperson Major General Winthai Suvaree said Cambodian soldiers initially fired shots into Thailand and that the Thai forces “fired warning shots in response, following rules of engagement.” The disputed region is claimed by Thailand to be a part of its Ban Nong Ya Kaew village in Sa Kaeo province, but Cambodia says it is part of Prey Chan village in Banteay Meanchey province. Confrontations over the region had previously escalated into a deadly conflict in July, where 48 people were killed and an estimated 300,000 temporarily displaced.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
Israel and Lebanon: Israeli wall crosses the blue line into Lebanon border, finds a UN survey
On 14 November, a UN spokesperson said a survey by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) found that a wall built by the Israeli military crosses the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated line between Lebanon, Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The spokesperson stated the concrete T-wall has led to more than 4,000 square metres of Lebanese territory being inaccessible. UNIFIL said such “Israeli presence and construction in Lebanese territory are violations of Security Council resolution 1701.” UNIFIL has reportedly informed the Israeli military of the survey finding and has advised to remove the wall. However, an Israeli military spokesperson denied the findings and stated, "the wall is part of a broader IDF plan whose construction began in 2022. Since the start of the war, and as part of lessons learned from it, the IDF has been advancing a series of measures, including reinforcing the physical barrier along the northern border.”

The War in Gaza: Hamas seeks to expand control over Gaza, says Reuters; EU considers training 3,000 Palestinian police officers for potential future deployment
On 14 November, Reuters reported that Hamas is looking to expand control in Gaza as "U.S. plans for its future slowly take shape." According to the news report, after last month's ceasefire, Hamas reasserted authority in areas vacated by Israel, executing Palestinians accused of working with Israel or other crimes. While Foreign actors call for the group to disarm and not take part in governance, no alternative structure has been decided so far. Residents have noted an increasing sense of control by Hamas, stating that authorities monitor incoming goods and levy fees on certain private imports, including fuel and cigarettes, and fine merchants for overcharging. The Hamas media office denied imposing such taxes and stated that the administration is focusing on urgent humanitarian and administrative tasks, making "strenuous efforts" to keep prices in check. It showed readiness to transfer authority, stating, "Our goal is for the transition to proceed smoothly." Residents, however, report fluctuating prices and increasing economic pressures. Meanwhile, the EU is considering leading the training of 3,000 Palestinian police officers for potential future deployment in Gaza, as per a document produced by the bloc's diplomatic arm. This is outlined with the aim of contributing to the implementation of the 20-point peace plan for Gaza proposed by President Trump.

Iraq’s parliamentary election: PM Sudani’s coalition comes first, says the electoral commission
On 12 November, the Independent High Electoral Commission announced that a coalition led by Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani won the parliamentary election, and the coalition received a total of 1.317 million votes. On the victory, PM Sudani said that “The voter turnout is clear evidence of another success, reflected in the restoration of confidence in the political system.” Reuters report that many disillusioned young voters saw the electoral system as a vehicle for established parties to divide the oil wealth found in Iraq. It is added that PM Sudani tried to portray him as the leader who had moved against the established parties that brought him to power and can stabilise Iraq, leading to growth. The final voter turnout has reached 56.11 per cent and marks the second term for PM Sudani.

The War in Gaza: France to support the Palestinian Authority in drafting a constitution for a future Palestinian state
On 11 November, after meeting President Mahmoud Abbas in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron stated that France would support the Palestinian Authority in drafting a constitution for a future Palestinian state. President Macron said a joint committee would be formed and will be “responsible for working on all legal aspects: constitutional, institutional and organisational.” He added that “it will contribute to the work of developing a new constitution... and will aim to finalise all the conditions for such a State of Palestine.” France also pledged 100 million euros in humanitarian aid to Gaza for 2025. President Abbas reaffirmed his commitment to “a culture of dialogue and peace,” envisioning “a democratic, unarmed state committed to the rule of law, transparency, justice, pluralism and the rotation of power.”

The War in Gaza: UNICEF says Israel continues to block essential humanitarian aid from entering Gaza
On 11 November, UNICEF reported that Israel continues to block essential humanitarian items, including syringes for child vaccinations and bottles of baby formula, from entering Gaza. Despite the fragile ceasefire, UNICEF faces major challenges in delivering 1.6 million syringes and solar-powered refrigerators for vaccine storage due to customs clearance since August. "Both the syringes and the ... refrigerators are considered dual-use by Israel... yet they are urgent," said UNICEF spokesperson Ricardo Pires. UNICEF reported that 938,000 bottles of infant formula and spare parts for water trucks were denied entry. "That's nearly one million bottles that could be reaching children who have been suffering from different levels of malnutrition," Pires noted. Reuters reported that although the ceasefire aimed to facilitate a major increase in aid deliveries across the enclave, relief agencies have consistently stated that the assistance reaching Gaza is not sufficient to meet the needs of its largely displaced and malnourished population of two million.

Syria and the US: Damascus joins international coalition to combat the Islamic State; Trump vows full support "to make Syria successful"
On 11 November, a senior Trump administration official confirmed that Syria will join the international coalition to combat the Islamic State. Syria will now be the 90th member of the global coalition aimed at eliminating the remaining elements of the Islamic State and curbing the flow of foreign militants into the Middle East. The announcement follows Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's visit to Washington on 10 November, marking the first ever Syrian presidential visit to the US. This marks the third meeting between the two leaders, following their encounter in May on the sidelines of the Gulf Cooperation Council summit and a subsequent meeting during a dinner at the UN General Assembly in September. Following the visit, the US Treasury Department announced a 180-day extension of its suspension of enforcement of the Caesar sanctions imposed on grounds of human rights abuses under the Assad regime. In an interview with Fox News, al-Sharaa described the visit as part of a "new era" of cooperation between Syria and the United States. Diplomatic relations between Syria and the United States have remained suspended since 2012. However, Washington has now agreed to allow Syria to reopen its embassy in Washington. President Trump expressed confidence in Sharaa's leadership and assured that he would "do everything we can to make Syria successful."

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Democratic Republic of Congo: The government and M23 sign peace framework in Doha; Violence continues in Eastern Congo
On 15 November, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 rebel group have signed a framework agreement to end fighting in eastern Congo in Doha, Qatar. The document includes eight protocols, but negotiators say most still require detailed implementation plans. US Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos admitted progress has been slow, especially on prisoner exchanges and ceasefire monitoring. He stated that “This is a process… This is not a light switch that you just switch on and off." The conflict continues despite diplomacy. Local officials said at least 28 people were killed on 14 November in North Kivu by militants allied with the Islamic State. M23 has seized major territory in eastern Congo and is widely reported to receive support from Rwanda. But Rwanda has long denied the allegations. Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi said the agreement puts the parties on a path toward peace. He said that “Peace cannot be enforced by force, but is built through confidence, mutual respect and sincere commitment.”

Africa: Proposed reduction in contribution to the Global Fund would “have real consequences across Africa,” warns experts
On 15 November, The Guardian warned that the 15 per cent reduction in the UK’s contribution to the Global Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has raised concerns other countries might be prompted to scale back their commitments as well. The rollback from the previous commitment of GBP one billion to GBP 850 million was announced on 11 November, despite the UK co-hosting this year’s replenishment drive with South Africa. Campaigners urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to demonstrate leadership by attending the replenishment summit in Johannesburg later this month, and to secure additional resources. The reduced pledge reflects the government’s broader decision to cut aid spending from 0.5 per cent of GDP to 0.3 per cent in order to increase defence funding. Research published in October indicated that a 20 per cent reduction in the Global Fund’s overall resources could lead to 330,000 additional malaria deaths by 2040. The Fund currently accounts for 59 per cent of all international financing for malaria. The British development minister Jenny Chapman said this year’s funding was “in dollar terms […] only 5 per cent less than the amount” pledged for 2023-25 and would “save up to 1.3 million lives, avert up to 22m new cases or infections of HIV, TB and malaria, and generate up to GBP 13bn in health gains and economic returns in the countries where the Global Fund works.” Joy Phumaphi, executive secretary of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance, welcomed the UK’s continued support but warned that the reduced contribution would “have real consequences across Africa, with fewer bed nets, medicines, and diagnostic tools reaching those most in need.” She also stated that “We expected a stronger show of leadership, reflecting a proud UK legacy of support to the global goal of ending Aids.”

The War in Sudan: UN launches fact-finding mission as RSF advances eastward in escalating civil war
On 14 November, the United Nations Human Rights Council adopted a resolution establishing an independent fact-finding mission to investigate the reported mass killings, ethnic violence and rape in al-Fashir. The resolution directs investigators to identify perpetrators and preserve evidence for future accountability. Sudan's representative criticised the text for avoiding scrutiny of alleged foreign support to the RSF by accusing the UAE of supplying weapons. These claims were denied. The EU, UK, Norway, and Ghana backed the resolution and warned that continued violence risks destabilising the wider region. The UN session came amid new RSF offenses on the eastward side after consolidating control over Darfur. Despite accepting a US-backed ceasefire proposal, RSF forces seized Bara in North Kordofan and launched drone attacks across the region, which has triggered heavy displacement. The Sudanese army, which has not agreed to the ceasefire, is massing troops around El Obeid and Port Sudan as fighting intensifies. Humanitarian agencies warn that parts of Kordofan are already in famine, and renewed hostilities risk further worsening Sudan's two-and-a-half-year civil war.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: Kyiv faces massive Russian missile and drone attack; President Zelensky calls it a “deliberate and calculated move”
On 15 November, media reported that Kyiv was struck by a heavy Russian aerial assault using at least 430 drones and 18 missiles, targeting residential buildings, infrastructure, and energy facilities. The attack killed six civilians and injured 35 others, according to Kyiv’s military administration. Buildings in more than eight districts of the city were damaged, and fires broke out across residential areas. President Volodymyr Zelensky described the strike as “deliberate” and “calculated” to inflict maximum damage on civilians. Authorities reported some power outages and called for increased international assistance to bolster air defence before the onset of winter.

The War in Ukraine: Kyiv's attack on Black Sea port disrupts Russian oil-exports; Moscow launches heavy retaliatory strikes, leading to eight deaths
On 14 November, Ukraine launched one of the biggest drone and missile attacks on Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, temporarily suspending oil exports, equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day, or 2 per cent of global supply. The strike follows a series of Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian refineries since August in an effort to weaken Moscow's capacity to finance its war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Kyiv launched long-range "Long Neptune" cruise missiles at targets inside Russia overnight, noting that such strikes were becoming increasingly successful. In response to the attack, Russia launched a major retaliatory strike on Ukraine, causing six deaths in Kyiv and two more in the Black Sea city of Chornomorsk in the south, in strikes on energy facilities. Ukrainian officials stated that the Russian forces used 430 drones and 18 missiles, and Kyiv was responding with long-range strikes. Most of the drones and missiles were shot down, but debris and fires caused severe infrastructure damage across nine districts in Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that "Only pressure – with sanctions and strength – can force Russia to end this war, a war that no one but them ever needed."

The War in Ukraine: Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says Kyiv will have to negotiate “sooner or later”; Foreign Minister Lavrov hopes Washington will avoid escalating the conflict “to a new level”
On 13 November, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine would “sooner or later” have to negotiate with Russia and that Kyiv’s position would worsen daily if it continued to reject talks. Peskov told reporters that Moscow remained open to a political and diplomatic settlement but would keep fighting “to protect its own security for the benefit of future generations.” Kyiv says that Moscow is laying unacceptable surrender terms to end the war. In an interview, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he hopes Washington would avoid steps that could “escalate the Ukraine conflict to a new level.” Lavrov said US President Donald Trump had long discussions with Russia to understand its position and “demonstrated commitment to finding a sustainable peaceful solution.” He blamed NATO’s expansion and deployment of its infrastructure close to the border for the conflict. He accused Europe of “sabotaging all peacemaking efforts” and preparing for a “major European war against Russia.”

The War in Ukraine: Moscow expresses intent to resume peace negotiations
On 12 November, Russia’s state news agency reported that Moscow is ready to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul. State official Alexei Polishchuk said that Turkish officials had repeatedly urged a resumption of the peace negotiations, and that "The Russian team is ready for this, the ball is in the Ukrainian court.” Previously, during the 23 July meeting in Istanbul, which lasted only 40 minutes, Ukraine proposed holding a meeting in August between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin later stated that Putin was open to the idea but insisted the meeting take place in Moscow, a condition Kyiv declined.

NORTH & SOUTH AMERICAS THIS WEEK
The US: Government shutdown ends as House of Representatives approved a new funding bill; Democrats’ demand for extension of expiring health insurance subsidies remains unfulfilled
On 13 November, the longest-ever US government shutdown ended after 43 days as the House of Representatives approved a new funding bill with a 222 to 209 vote share. The package passed the Senate on 10 November with a 60-40 vote after seven Democrats and one independent senator joined the Republicans to approve it. The long-drawn shut down had left nearly 1.4 million federal employees without pay, suspended food assistance for many low-income Americans, and caused widespread disruptions in air travel, with thousands of flights delayed or cancelled. However, the bill does not include the Democrats’ key demand for an automatic extension of expiring health insurance subsidies that currently benefit around 24 million Americans. Instead, lawmakers reached a procedural agreement to hold a separate vote on the tax credits during the second week of December. The 328-page funding bill extends support to most federal agencies until 30 January. It also allocates funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Department of Agriculture, Congress, and the Department of Veterans Affairs through September of 2026. The legislation guarantees back pay for all federal employees and reverses shutdown-related layoffs. Without the renewal of the subsidies, healthcare costs of lower-income Americans are expected to surge, potentially widening existing affordability gaps in the healthcare system.

The US at the G7 summit: US Secretary of State defends recent strikes by Washington in the Caribbean, rejects European criticism over their legality
On 12 November, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended recent US strikes in the Caribbean, negating European criticism over their legality. Speaking after the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Canada, Rubio stated, “I don’t think that the European Union gets to determine what international law is. They certainly don’t get to determine how the United States defends its national security.” On 11 November, France’s foreign minister said the strikes “violate international law” and concern its regional territories. The United States maintains that the attacks targeted “narco-terrorists” and were consistent with Article 51 of the UN Charter, which mandates the UN Security Council to be immediately informed if states take any action in self-defense against armed attack. On the other hand, UN experts previously warned that “the use of lethal force in international waters without proper legal basis violates the international law of the sea.” Speaking about reports that Britain has suspended intelligence sharing with the US, Rubio said it was “false,” and that “nothing has changed.” On 11 November, Colombian President Gustavo Petro directed Colombian public security forces to halt intelligence sharing with the US until Washington ceases its attacks on boats in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, the G7 reaffirmed commitment to maritime security but did not make any mention of the US operations.

The US: Congress to hold vote to end longest government shutdown in history
On 12 November, the US House of Representatives is set to end the longest government shutdown in US history, with a vote on a stopgap funding package to restart disrupted food assistance, pay hundreds of thousands of federal workers and revive a disrupted air-traffic control system. The Democrats voiced strong disapproval against the failure of the Senate-brokered compromise to extend expiring healthcare subsidies. The Democrats had initiated the shutdown by blocking spending legislations in the Congress, demanding that any funding package must also consider and expand the COVID pandemic-era health subsidies, due to expire in December. However, the Republican majority maintained that the issue will have to be dealt with separately. If the subsidies expire, healthcare premiums of millions of Americans would skyrocket, or they could lose their marketplace coverage entirely. On 10 November, an eight-member splinter group from the Democrats broke with party leadership to pass the funding package, which would extend funding until 30 January, allowing the federal government to fund programs at the Department of Veterans Affairs, the USDA and FDA, and legislative branch operations. It also includes provisions to halt large-scale federal layoffs, reinstate employees dismissed during the shutdown, and prevent further reductions through the end of January. Additionally, it ensures back pay for federal workers who have gone weeks without pay. "Donald Trump and Republicans believe the affordability crisis in America is made up. That's why these extremists haven't done a damn thing to lower the high cost of living. You deserve better," House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a social media post.

The US Senate Bill: The bill ends the government shutdown, restoring funding for federal agencies
On 11 November, the US Senate passed a bill to end the country's longest-ever government shutdown. The vote was 60-40, with support from most Republicans and eight Democrats. President Trump said the deal to reopen the government was "very good." The deal would extend funding through 30 January, leaving the federal government for now on a path to keep adding about USD 1.8 trillion a year to its USD 38 trillion in debt. The measure would restore federal funding, temporarily restricting US President Trump's workforce reduction plans until 30 January, and fund the SNAP food-subsidy program through September 2026. While the bill doesn't guarantee the continuation of health insurance subsidies affecting 24 million Americans, it sets up a December vote on the issue. The bill was sent to the House of Representatives for final approval.

G7 Summit: Discussions to focus on Arctic security, the War in Ukraine, and peace in the Middle East
On 11 November, the latest meeting of the Group of Seven foreign ministers began in Canada with Foreign Minister Anita Anand stating that discussions would centre on Arctic security, the War in Ukraine, and peace in the Middle East. Pointing to the "geopolitical volatility" shaping current global affairs, she called her US counterpart Marco Rubio as "a very constructive member" of the G7 and appreciated US efforts toward securing peace in the Middle East. Anand noted the need for focused dialogues on the "long path forward" to peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East. "Canada and the G7 will be looking at how best to support the people of Ukraine via the energy infrastructure, food supply and longer-term reconstruction," she added.

About the author
Akriti Sharma is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Femy Francis is a Project Associate at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Santhiya M and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, St Ann's College for Women, Hyderabad.

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