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CWA # 1844, 14 November 2025
CW Column: The Conflicts in Africa
The AU's response to Trump's military threat and JNIM fuel blockade in Mali

  Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
Nigeria: The AU’s response to Trump’s military threat
On 12 November, the African Union responded to US President Trump’s military threat to Nigeria over his claims of a Christian genocide. African Union Commission chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf rejected Trump’s claims and stated: "What's going on in the northern part of Nigeria has nothing to do with the kind of atrocities we see in Sudan or in some part of eastern DRC.” He added: "Think twice before... making such statements. The first victims of Boko Haram are Muslims, not Christians."

Mali: JNIM fuel blockade
This week, the fuel blockade by the al-Qaeda linked jihadist group, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), crossed two months. The US has urged its citizens not to travel to the country, and France has advised its citizens to leave.

What are the issues?
Nigeria
First, Trump’s accusations, threats, and discrepancies. Trump threatened military intervention in Nigeria over the number of Christians being killed by insurgents. Beyond Islamist insurgency, Nigeria’s security issues also involve banditry and farmer-herder clashes, which are not ideologically or religiously driven. Regardless, many research groups collectively describe them as “jihadists.” The data by ACLED indicates discrepancies in Trump’s claims. It says out of 21,000 civilians killed since 2020, 317 were Christians and highlights that Muslims and Christians have been equally targeted. 

Second, Africa’s collective response. Trump’s threat questions the authority under which he plans to carry out a military intervention into a sovereign democratic country. To make such a move, Trump needs consent from the respective country, a UN mandate, or domestic legislation to intervene. Meanwhile, Nigeria welcomed US assistance in fighting insurgency, but demanded respect for its sovereignty.  The AU chief’s response to Trump’s claims and threats implies Africa’s collective response that such a move is unwelcome.  

Mali
Third, in Mali, JNIM’s fuel blockade tactic and the objective. The JNIM launched a blockade of fuel supplies from neighbouring countries in September when the military government in Mali banned fuel sales in rural areas, an attempt to squeeze jihadists in their hideouts. Many fuel tankers and trucks from the Ivory Coast have been attacked and set on fire. Mali, a landlocked country in the Sahel, depends on neighbouring Senegal and the Ivory Coast for its fuel needs. Economic squeezing has been a major tactic group's financing since its formation. However, it was limited to illicit artisanal gold mining, illegal taxing, kidnapping, livestock theft and money laundering into the local financial system. The fuel blockade as a tactic is used to incite an economic crisis to pressure the military government and to demonstrate its capacity to shape the economic activities in the country.

Fourth, the military government's stance. The fuel blockade has pushed the government towards a defensive position. The military has been attempting to escort fuel trucks from the border to the capital and targeting JNIM hideouts with airstrikes. However, many attempts have failed amidst attacks by the militants. The government has also signed an emergency fuel supply agreement with Russia to secure refined petroleum and technical assistance for transport security. 

Fifth, the economic impact. The blockade has left many parts of the country without electricity. It has increased commodity prices. Schools have been shut for weeks. The gas stations in the capital, Bamako, are filled with long queues. Emergency services, food and health care sectors, public transport, businesses and military requirements have been affected by the blockade. 

What does it mean?
Nigeria
The AU’s response points out dissatisfaction with Trump’s claims and represents a collective demand from Africa to provide evidence-based accusations. The stance also indicates that any military intervention by the US is unwelcome in Africa if not invited. 

Mali
The fuel blockade implies: first, JNIM’s capacity to disrupt the economic sectors in the country; second, it exposed the military government’s weak reach and capacity to quell the insurgency; third, it demonstrates the junta’s increasing reliance on Russia; fourth, increasing concerns of JNIM’s expansion, the extensive social and security impact and a major setback to public confidence on the military regime.

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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