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CWA # 1860, 27 November 2025
CW Column: The Conflicts in Africa
A Coup in Guinea-Bissau and the US Ceasefire Proposal in Sudan

  Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
1. Guinea-Bissau
On 26 November, Guinea-Bissau’s military arrested President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, seized control of the country, and suspended the electoral process. The military said that the move aims to block a plot by unnamed politicians who had "the support of a well-known drug baron" to destabilise the country.

On the same day, the AU and the ECOWAS expressed "deep concern with the announcement of a coup d'état by the armed forces." They jointly stated: "It is regrettable that this announcement came after a time when the mission had just concluded a meeting with the two leading presidential candidates, who assured us of their willingness to accept the will of the people."

On 23 November, Guinea-Bissau conducted presidential elections, and on 24 November, incumbent president Embalo and opposition candidate Fernado Dias claimed election victory before the official results were announced.

2. Sudan
On 25 November, advisor to US President Donald Trump on African and Arab affairs, Massad Boulos, said that the US presented a comprehensive ceasefire plan to the SAF and the RSF; however, it was rejected by both sides. Boulos stated: "We have presented a strong text for a truce, but neither SAF nor RSF have formally accepted the text we put for war." The US proposed the ceasefire on behalf of the Quad group, which includes the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

On 24 November, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced a unilateral humanitarian truce.

On 23 November, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, called the US proposal "worst yet" and unacceptable. He called the Quad group "biased" as long as the UAE is a member, adding that the proposal "eliminates the armed forces, dissolves security agencies and keeps the militia where they are."

What are the issues?
1. Guinea-Bissau: Persistent political instability, disputed elections and another addition to Africa’s coup belt
Since independence in 1974, Guinea-Bissau, a former Portuguese colony, has faced persistent political instability, driven by four military coups, weak institutions and rivalry between political elites. In 1980, President Luis Cabral was overthrown by Prime Minister Nino Vieira in a coup. In 1998, tensions within the military led to a year-long civil war and the end of Vieira's regime. 2003 and 2012 saw two other military coups. Embalo came to power in 2019 and dissolved the parliament twice amid allegations of coup attempts.

Embalo's government expired in February 2025, but extended the elections to November 2025. In October, the major opposition, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), and the coalition Pai Terra Ranka were disqualified by the Supreme Court from contesting the presidential elections. The Court cited the late document submission for disqualification. Subsequently, the opposition parties extended support to Fernando's candidacy against Embalo. The controversial election victory claims and the subsequent political tensions created conditions conducive to a military coup.

Since 2020, West Africa has witnessed five military coups. Mali in August 2020; Burkina Faso in January 2022 and September 2022; Niger in July 2023; Guinea in September 2022; and Gabon in August 2023. Guinea-Bissau is the sixth one. 

2. Sudan: Continuing fighting, failed ceasefires, international pressure and tensions with the Quad
Since the war began in April 2023, there have been more than nine rounds of ceasefire mediations led by the US, Saudi Arabia, the AU and neighbouring countries, including Egypt. However, all the attempts failed. The SAF, internationally considered the legitimate government, seeks a complete victory. It demands the RSF’s withdrawal from civilian areas ahead of a truce. The RSF, a paramilitary force, has captured the western Darfur and Kordofan regions and established a parallel government. With substantial military strength and supply, both sides continue fighting with a complete disregard for ceasefires.

The recent international pressure comes following the RSF's capture of el-Fasher and the satellite reports of mass killings in the region. The RSF atrocities in el-Fasher met with widespread international condemnation. The Quad have been leading peace efforts since the beginning of the war. However, the SAF has objected to the UAE’s involvement in the mediations for its alleged weapon supply to the RSF, an accusation it has denied.

What does it mean?
In Guinea-Bissau, the coup was anticipated. The military took advantage of the institutional decay and rivalry between political elites, which peaked during the election. With the takeover, the country's constitutional democracy is suspended, and the near-term political trajectory remains unclear. Meanwhile, the expansion of the coup belt in West Africa points to unbalanced civil-military relations in the region. It also highlights how the military adopted an operational strategy and adapted to critical international responses by learning from other coup-led governments. It also implies that other unstable countries in West Africa are prone to similar military coups.

In Sudan, the Quad's ceasefire proposal came after a lull in regional and international efforts to end the war. The SAF's demand for the RSF’s withdrawal from civilian territories before a truce is far from happening. Although the RSF has agreed to a humanitarian truce, it rejected direct talks with the SAF by accusing it of being controlled by the members of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, a banned party of former leader Omar al-Bashir. This implies that although the ceasefire plan is significant, a ceasefire on the ground is unlikely. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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