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CWA # 1407, 30 May 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
South Africa: The Decline of the ANC

  Neha Tresa George

The African National Congress (ANC), initially known as the South African Native National Congress, was founded in 1912 to fight for voting rights for coloured (people of mixed race) and black Africans. From 1943, it fought against apartheid, racial segregation and discrimination. In 1994, with the end of the apartheid regime, Nelson Mandela, the leader of the ANC, was elected as the country’s first black President.

Although the party had consecutive victories until 2024, the per cent of the vote share has declined since the 2004 elections. The party’s vote share declined from 70 per cent in 2004, to 66 per cent in 2009, 62 per cent in 2014 and 59 per cent in 2019. The ANC was at its peak in 2004 with 279 seats out of the 400 in the National Assembly. In 2009, it went down to 264 seats followed by 249 in 2014. This year it secured only 40 per cent of votes with 159 seats. This year, for the first time since 1994, the ANC lost simple majority. ANC remained in power for 30 years by maintaining its charm and popular support. However, the party which had been at the forefront of apartheid could not address the public socio-economic grievances. 

The following are the causes behind the ANC’s decline.

1. Socio-economic issues and ineffective governance. The unemployment rate in the country is recorded at 33 per cent in 2022. According to the World Bank, ten per cent of the 60 million population controls 80 per cent of the wealth. The forecasted GDP growth in 2024 between 0.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent is insufficient for the government to mitigate the challenges of unemployment, inequality, and poverty. Increasing living costs implied economic regression faced by the people. A report by the World Bank in 2022 identified that 60 per cent of people are living in poverty. The Blacks still live in townships and the Whites in the suburbs. People are affected by the scheduled load cuts and widespread crimes, making it one of the countries having the highest crime rates. Underlying socio-economic issues have increased popular distrust in an ANC-led government.

2. The corruption scandals. Several ANC leaders were involved in several corruption scandals. It worsened under Jacob Zuma, the former President of South Africa. The officials at all levels of government were accused of corruption. Although when Cyril Ramaphosa came to power, he promised to clean the ANC out of corruption, he himself was involved in a scandal where a stack of money was found at one of his farms.  

3. Internal divisions. Many leaders have left the ANC to form their own parties over power play and ideological differences including Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), led by Julius Malema and Jacob Zuma respectively. The disintegration of the ANC divided the interests of different groups and thereby the votes. 

4. Role of populist leaders. Although Jacob Zuma was convicted for several allegations of corruption, supporters consider him to be a “man of the people,” who fights for the well-being of people. His party’s success could be traced to his popularity and charisma. Similarly, Ramaphosa and Malema have placed themselves as populist leaders who can fix South Africa. However, increasing socio-economic woes have led to the declining popularity of populist leaders.

5. The born-frees. South Africa’s born-free generation includes the population born after 1994. They account for 40 per cent of the population, devoid of the struggles of freedom and apartheid. Unlike the older generation, the youth are resistant to the ‘ANC-loyalty.’ More than half of the youth have lost their faith in the political system. Six million people under the age of 30 have not registered on the electoral roll. Unaddressed issues of unemployment, inequality, and a degraded quality of living with a lack of facilities are the reasons behind the resistance. In 2015, young activists began a hashtag movement, #FeesMustFall, protesting against tuition fees across the universities. They called on the party to either ‘evolve’ or ‘die.’ The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party has been gaining the youth's attention through their call for economic transformation, push for land appropriation from the whites and nationalisation of banks and mines. The growing discontent among the born frees have sufficient potential to determine the future of the ANC. 

About the authors
Neha Tresa George is a Research Intern at NIAS.

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