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CWA # 1528, 31 October 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
Protests in Africa: Role of populist leaders

  Anu Maria Joseph

In July-August, Africa saw a series of protests in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Uganda. All of them were led by the young generation, seeking a change. Fundamental issues behind protests in all African countries are similar socio-economic grievances. The protesters called for a change in the economic crisis, an increasing cost of living, and a corrupt or absent government. Although William Ruto in Kenya, Bola Tinubu in Nigeria and Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe were advocacies of these changes during elections, once in power, they did little to satisfy the public.

Ideologically, populism is considered a positive force of change. It entails the belief that the government should fulfil the masses’ popular aspirations against the elite interests. However, in many African countries, it has gained a negative connotation characterised by a tactic to stay in power. The qualities of a populist is an ongoing debate. This analysis is on the fundamental that African populism has definite characteristics defined by unfulfillable promises and an enchanted public. African public is receptive to populist rhetorics, promising quick and effective solutions. However, the majority of populist-run states do not have the capacity and accountable mechanisms to fulfil those promises. In the end, the rhetorics remain while populists feed upon public grievances to stay in power. At some point, when the public comes out of the spell, the anger pans out in the form of violent protests. This has become a pattern in many African countries and populists in power are shifting the nature of protests. 

Protests in Africa: Role of populist leaders
1. Populist in power and the protest triggers. Populism in Africa is more associated with a charismatic leader who came to power, promising a change and positioning himself as the face of the change. However, their vision of change and prosperity is achieved through immediate sacrifices for immediate output. For populists, these sacrifices are obstacles to be bulldozed in the name of solving crises. Thus, populism comes into conflict with liberal democracy and triggers violent protests. For example, in Kenya, Ruto came to power in 2022 promising to address unemployment and poverty. After coming to power, to achieve his promises fast, he removed fuel subsidies increased the cost of commodities and introduced several bills increasing taxes. He attributed the sudden increase in taxes to collecting USD 2.76 billion in taxes to address the debt crisis which amounts to USD 80 billion. The tax burden and increasing cost of living angered the public and triggered violent protests.

2. Populists in power and the intensity of protests. In Kenya, Tunisia, Senegal and Ethiopia, populism became a trick for populists to stay in power. However, once in power, at the expense of the public trust, a populist's method to achieve his ideals turns authoritarian, They become the source of democratic erosion through declining the executive and judiciary checks and balances, manipulation, control of mass media, crackdown on the opposition, oppression of minority. This builds up anger and frustration among the public against the populist. This resistance comes out in the form of violent and anti-government protests and calls for the resignation of populist leaders. Unlike protests against the political elites, protests against a populist are always intense as the target has a face, responsible for all the public frustrations. For instance, in Tunisia, President Kais Saied received major popular support when he seized power in 2021. He promised to save the country from the longstanding economic and political crisis, corruption and unemployment under the Ennahda elite-run government. However, three years down the line, Saied’s policies have turned authoritarian, targeting opposition, critics, and journalists and cracking down on fundamental freedom. Recently, Tunisia’s electoral commission approved only two presidential candidates against Saied for the upcoming elections scheduled for 6 October. Meanwhile, several rounds of protests have been recurring in the country against Saied’s increasing iron grip on power. Meanwhile, the election would likely bring a boiling point to the growing discontent and trigger an intense public explosion. 

3. Populist in power and response to the protests. A populist in power always has a double standard response to the protests- accommodation and repression. In Kenya, Ruto's police and security forces used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse and contain the protests. Meanwhile, he also promised talks with the protesters stating "I run a government, but I also lead people, and the people have spoken." A populist in power shows his true colours during protests. In Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed gained popularity through his idea of "Medemer" or togetherness. However, in his response to Oromia and Amhara's resistance and protests, Abiy resorted to oppression through force, inclusion through exclusion, and arrest of protesters and journalists. The same happened in Senegal and Tunisia.

4. Populist in power and recurrence of protests. A populist in power is always likely to stick to the plan despite strong opposition. Ignorance of discontent and repressive response to the protests increases the possibility of recurring protests. While the populists contain the protests either through their rhetorics or oppression, the underlying crisis persists and the chances of recurring protests increase. Since Ruto came to power in Kenya and began increasing the taxes, the protests have been recurring. Initially, he ignored the protests. However, when the discontent reached its boiling point, mass participation increased and the protests turned violent. The protests are likely to recur if Ruto is to go forward with his policies. 

Conclusion
In contemporary Africa, mass protests are increasing in number and gaining momentum. The majority of the protests are against a populist in power, once a face of change turned to a face of public discontent. The role of populist-run governments has changed the nature of the protests. Traditionally,  protests in Africa were led by opposition parties and civil society groups. However,  contemporary protests are being organized by a frustrated public. Besides, the protest strategies have changed. With a diffused leadership, led by the younger generation, the protests are degenerating faster, making it hard for the authorities to contain. Social media has become a major mobilising tool. The cause is strong and the impacts are intense. William Ruto in Kenya, Kais Saied in Tunisia, Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia, Bola Tinubu in Nigeria, Samia Suluhu Hassan in Tanzania and Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe shall expect more uprisings while they are adamant about their vision and policies.

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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