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CWA # 1530, 30 November 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
Africa: A Global Hotspot at the Intersection of Multiple Crises in Sahel

  S Shaji

The Sahel region in Africa has become one of the central focuses of global attention due to a variety of issues ranging from military coups, terrorism, insurgencies, climate crisis, and food crisis, along with foreign interventions. The unfolding of these issues on a scale never witnessed before in the continent has made it a global hotspot in the region.  In fact, there have been six successful military coups in the region since 2020. From South Sudan on the East Coast of Africa to Guinea on the Atlantic coast of the continent, several countries in the region are under military rule which prompted observers to label it as ‘the longest corridor of military rule on the Earth’ or ‘coast to coast coup belt’.  The recent debates on Africa, especially in the Sahel region, point to the direction that there is a serious crisis, especially pertaining to security in the region; apart from crises arising from political, economic and environmental, food security concerns which have led to an unpreceded level of migration. In other words, Sahel is in the grip of both traditional and non-traditional threats emanating from various sources. 

In the political realm, Sahel has recorded unpreceded level of backsliding of democracy. The states which have fallen to military rule since 2020 are West Africa, Mali (two times), Burkina Faso and Niger.  States after states in the region are falling into military rule due to a variety of factors ranging from popular apathy towards inefficient elected governments, and high levels of corruption to interventions of external actors and players. The external reasons can be traced to the withdrawal of major powers (like the US) and the inter-governmental organisations (United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), African Union (AU)) sub-regional organisations such as (ECOWAS), and so on). However, the military and authoritarian leaders have invoked anti-French feelings in some countries to mobilise popular support for a military takeover of the governments, which were led by elected leaders. In certain contexts, like in Mali; after taking over the reign, military leaders reviewed and cancelled several agreements and treaties with France in the realm of security and military. 

Notwithstanding this aspect, the internal factors which contribute to the backsliding of democracy centre around people's perception of the capabilities of the elected governments in the region as corruption constitutes a significant concern across the countries in the Sahel. In certain cases, there is a popular negative perception about the role of elected governments because they could not deliver on their mandates. Therefore, public service delivery has turned out to be a major problem that most of the Sahelian governments face in the region. As a result, the failure of the governments and the ‘weak state syndrome’ have simultaneously accentuated the growth and spread of violent extremist and terrorist groupings in the region. For instance, violent extremist/insurgent groups such as Jam’at Nusrat Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) have expanded their activities. The activities of these violent extremist groups have increased the death toll by 50 per cent in the last couple of years. At the same time, extremism, which has spread across the Sahel region, has a transnational character. Cutting across national boundaries in the Sahel region, there are different kinds of coalitions involving extremist/ terrorist groups. Perhaps it is a loose type of coalition (of terrorists) unlike those in global south regions from Asia. However, in Sahel, such loose coalitions do possess a certain level of internal coherence which enables extremist/terrorist groups to cause difficulties and hardships to people and also for the governments in the region. 

In fact, it appears that the issues pertaining to extremism /terrorism remain unresolvable because, most of the time negotiations with these extremist groups have become vexed and complex given the lack of clarity among these groups regarding their aims and targets.  The underlying complexities bring about a situation wherein mediation becomes extremely difficult while dealing with extremist organisations in the Sahelian context. At the same time, fatalities that emerged out of the conflicts in the Sahel and the central African region increased significantly from less than 2000 in 2016 to around 12000 in the year 2022, which clearly shows the prevalence of complex situations/concerns in the region. 

As an outcome of military coups and extremist/terrorist activities, multiple agencies have also pointed out a scenario where around 3 million people have fled from these countries. Such a trend is quite visible in countries like Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, according to a report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The forced migration of high magnitude affects the lives of people, which includes their political freedom and has severely impacted economic aspects, especially livelihoods, apart from the disruption of the social and cultural lives. Politically, the military coups and the leaderships that have emerged are deeply entrenched within the system. Perhaps, in certain cases, there is popular support for such kind of military regimes which came to power in recent times. Such a scenario deepens the migration crises of vulnerable communities within each state. The violence perpetuated by State on Non-State Actors leads to a non-traditional security crisis (migration), which in turn can lead to a traditional crisis (conflicts among various groups) triggering a fresh set of violence as seen in the context of Mali. 

There are reports that approximately thirteen million people in the Sahel region experience hunger (World Food Programme, 2023).  The regional migration has been augmented by natural disasters such as floods and drought that have led to a decline in agricultural productivity. The geo-political developments such as the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia have also contributed to further misery due to the shortage of food because of the decline in the import of cereals like wheat from these countries. It should be noted in this context that apart from geo-political reasons, the Sahel is an ecologically fragile region. The agriculture in the region is climate sensitive and any extreme weather events such as floods and drought affect food production and contribute to migration. There are instances of rise in average temperature, unseasonal and extreme rains, floods and drought. In fact, the rise in temperature in the region is 1.5 times higher than the global average. In other words, climate-sensitive agriculture and ecologically fragile environment make agricultural production extremely vulnerable. These lead to a shortage of food and resources for living which in turn has also given rise to mass migration and sometimes lead to conflicts and violence among various communities and groups.  

Apart from these issues, the role of external actors is often raked up in the domestic politics of Sahel States, for instance, the role of France, a prominent European State and a former colonial power in the region. This matter has to be viewed in a nuanced way: the people and the governments in the Sahel region want to continue engaging with European states in the developmental and economic sphere, whereas they want to disengage with European powers (including France) on the security front. Similar instances have been cited in recent times, especially on the failure of the African Union (AU), an organisation which made an earnest effort to mediate between conflicting parties. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) tried to intervene in certain countries in the region. However, ECOWAS has exited from the process of negotiations with certain countries while a few other countries have begun to disengage with the regional organisations. Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso also exited from the ECOWAS in January 2024 which is projected in the media narrative as ‘Sahel Exit’. While the exit from ECOWAS, is set to affect the economy of each of exited States, it can also reduce the power and capabilities of regional organisations to mediate and build peace among various warring parties. 

In sum, in the Sahel region, in certain ways, traditional conflicts (military, interventions of foreign powers) are transforming into non-traditional ones (mass migration, migration-induced conflicts, food crises etc) and vice versa. Such a level of intersectionality has led to new dynamics in the region, unlike the developments in other regions of Africa. In practical terms, it generates enduring conflicts and subsequent uncertainty in all aspects of life in the region.  In this context, the Sahel, which is critically located in the continent, is all set to define the course of African politics in a significant way in the years to come. The interaction between traditional and non-traditional security concerns needs to be carefully viewed and understood to make sense of the unfolding crisis in the Sahel region and its impacts and outcomes for the African region as well as in the international arena.  

This commentary was originally published as part of NIAS-IPRI Conflict Weekly 250th Issue Special Edition.

About the author
Dr S Shaji is an Assistant Professor at University of Hyderabad.

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