AFRICA MONITOR

Anu Maria Joseph

From 13 elections to France’s withdrawal from West African countries, Africa witnessed several significant events, developments and issues in 2024. These developments will play a major role in Africa in 2025. The following are the ten major developments from Africa the previous year. 

1. Africa’s 13 presidential elections: Democratic victories, authoritarian shifts and another term for incumbencies 
2024 was the year of elections for Africa. Tunisia, Egypt, Mozambique, Rwanda, Comoros, Madagascar, South Africa, Senegal, Botswana, Namibia, Ghana, Chad, and Mauritania were the countries which conducted presidential elections. Elections in South Africa, Tunisia, Senegal and Ghana were widely discussed. The African National Congress (ANC) secured a margin victory in South Africa. While the country celebrated 30 years of democracy along with the ANC’s 30 years in power, the party is doubtful of another term in power. In Tunisia, Kais Saied won a second term securing 90 per cent of votes. During his first term, he amended the constitution and concentrated power into his hands. Tunisia as the spearhead of the Arab Spring has become another history with Saied establishing his authoritarian rule. 

Unusually, elections in Senegal were relatively peaceful. Former President Macky Sall and his party conceded defeat to the Patsef party andDiomaye Faye was elected Senegal’s youngest president. In Ghana, peaceful elections led to former President John Dramani Mahama’s victory. In Egypt, Abdel Fattah al Sissi will continue for a third term. Similarly, Paul Kagame won another term in Rwanda, securing 99 per cent of votes. In Chad, military leader Mahamat Deby was sworn in as President.

Meanwhile, in Mozambique, elections were marked by violence killing more than 200 people. While the ruling party’s candidate Daniel Chapo claimed victory, the opposition alleges vote rigging. In Namibia, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has become the first women president.  

2. One year of war in Sudan: A prolonged war and humanitarian disaster
The war in Sudan which has prolonged for more than a year has brought major changes and challenges in the north-eastern part of Africa. The war seems to have no end soon, despite several rounds of regional and international mediation.

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) crossed 20 months. It has intensified with expanded geography, actors and violence. What started in the capital Khartoum has spread to Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan, Wad Madani, Kordafan, and Darfur. The military rivalry has escalated into an ethnic conflict with the RSF and the SAF siding with Arab and non-Arab militias, respectively. El Fasher in North Darfur has become a major hotspot, with the US accusing the RSF of committing genocide against non-Arab communities. All regional and international peace talks and ceasefire mediation failed with both sides failing to comply. The war has reportedly killed more than 20,000 people and displaced around 11 million within Sudan and neighbouring countries including Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia. The humanitarian crisis was exacerbated by extreme climate events including floods and droughts. A famine was declared in Zamzam IDP camp and 14 other places are vulnerable to a similar situation. The war has also triggered ethnic and tribal conflicts along the border with South Sudan and Ethiopia. Besides, Iran and UAE’s continued support, despite the UN’s arms embargo by supplying arms to the warring parties has intensified the violence.

3. Conflicts in DRC and Ethiopia: Two conflicts to foresee in 2025 
Although violence has come down in Ethiopia, it is unknown whether violence is not being covered due to restricted media. Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region officially ended in November 2022. However, justice for the conflict victims, rehabilitation, representation in politics and other promises of the agreement are yet to be reached. Meanwhile, the conflict has expanded to Amhara, Oromia, and Afar regions after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed introduced a new policy to integrate ethnic militias into the federal force.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the rebel group March 23’s campaign and the tensions between Rwanda continue in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. DRC accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels. Angola has been mediating peace between the two countries. But, have not been successful. Since 2023, M23 has been trying to capture Goma, which would escalate the conflict. Although there are no incidents of continuous violence, the group carries out isolated attacks and captures small areas in the region. During the second half of 2024, the violence came down after the humanitarian truce mediated by the US in July. However, the conflict has the potential to escalate into a full-blown conflict between the DRC and Rwanda, if M23 successfully captures North Kivu’s capital Goma and other mineral-rich towns. 

4. Sahel and the continuing crises
As usual, West Africa continues to be in multiple crises. Unlike 2023, the region witnessed no coups this year. However, followed by the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger during the previous years, the countries left ECOWAS and formed a new Alliance of Sahel States. The new bloc has strengthened the military regimes in the region against international and regional sanctions and other restrictions. The alliance is additionally planning to form their joint forces to fight insurgency. 

Nigeria continues to face the issue of ransom kidnappings by armed men, locally known as bandits. In December, more than 50 women were abducted from Zamfara state. In May, 160 people were kidnapped in Niger state. In March, 87 people were abducted from Kaduna state. Besides kidnapping, frequent boat accidents have become a major issue in Nigeria. The capsizing of overcrowded boats along the Niger River has killed 27 people in November, 100 in October, and 40 in September. 

Meanwhile, an outbreak of the Monkeypox disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo raised a global alarm. In August, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency after 629 died of the disease. 

Insurgent, rebel and jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State continue to thrive in West Africa. According to the Global Terrorism Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace, Burkina Faso ranks first, followed by Mali ranked third, Nigeria eighth and Niger tenth. On 16 November, 200 people were killed in Niger in an attack by IS-linked Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), marking one of the deadliest attacks in the world in 2024, reported by GTI.

5. Protests in Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria: Africa’s potential for uprisings
In June, Kenya saw five weeks of widespread violent protest across the country against President William Ruto’s handling of the economy and the introduction of a controversial financial bill. Ruto came to power in 2023 promising to issues of increased cost of living, poverty and unemployment. However, one week into the office, he removed fuel subsidies and later increased taxes. This angered the public leading to violent protests. The protests gained widespread global attention for the involvement of the young generation and the use of social media platforms including TikTok, Facebook and Instagram. The violent protest killed more than 200 people. It also raised concerns among other African countries facing similar issues, including Uganda, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. 

Later, the protests in Kenya inspired other young generations in Uganda and Nigeria. In Uganda, the protests were against corruption. However, it did not gain much momentum. In Nigeria, the protests against the increased cost of living and insecurity turned violent and killed at least 13 people. 

6. End of France's military presence in West Africa
After Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, Senegal, Chad and Ivory Coast have asked French troops to leave their country. They say French presence does not align with countries' security requirements and sovereignty. The anti-West sentiments amidst France's failure to address the decade-long insecurity issues and the suspected neo-colonial ambitions added with Russia's entry as a security provider and equal partner have ended French presence in West Africa. France has no more military presence in West Africa. 

Now, France is going beyond its traditional colonial partners. In October, French President Emmanuel Macron recognised Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara after its long efforts to normalise ties with its former colony Algeria. It seems France is revisiting its policy towards Africa and engaging with African countries which are not its former colonies to avoid the burden of colonialism.

7. Russia in Africa: Africa’s new security provider
Russia's footprint in Africa has increased in the past two years. Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov visited several African countries this year alone including Guinea, the Republic of Congo, Chad, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Sudan, Mali, Mauritania, South Africa, Eritrea, Angola and Eswatini. Besides, several African leaders have been visiting Moscow frequently. Russia has secured African allies through the narratives of equal partnership and anti-neocolonialism and has positioned itself as Africa's major security provider. It not only serves Russia's economic interests securing markets and minerals, but also votes in the UN Security Council. Russia has gained popular support across Africa. Financial Times quoted a Malian media representative: “Down to the last peasant in the last village, if you ask them who’s working in the best interests of Africans, they’ll say Russia.” Its narrative as a security provider without involvement in internal affairs is a partner in the best interest of African leaders. Pro-Russian narratives accompanied the anti-West sentiments simultaneously. 

However, Several human rights groups have accused the Russian mercenaries of carrying out human rights atrocities in West African countries. In 2023, Human Rights Watch found out that the Wagner Group executed nearly 300 people in Mali under suspicion of involvement with jihadists. In the Central African Republic, the UN accused the Wagner forces and instructors, fighting the rebels alongside the government forces since 2017, of more than 500 incidents of human rights violations including extrajudicial killings, torture and sexual violence.

8. China’s FOCAC summit: South-South narrative and donor-recipient reality
On 5-6 September, China held the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). 51 African countries' heads and the AU chairperson attended the summit. The theme of the summit was "Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future." 

The FOCAC 2024 was a big success. China has offered USD 51 billion in loans, grants and investments. Chinese President Xi Jinping has announced a ten partnership action plan which includes trade connectivity, green development, industrial cooperation and health. He additionally announced to training of 7000 African military and police personnel. 51 African heads participating in the FOCAC summit point to Africa welcoming China's footprints. This is mainly because of three reasons. First, it deals with Africa's urgent development needs with a focus on global south-south equal partnership. Secondly, the projects planned during the previous FOCAC summit have been completed, gathering African trust. The most important one is China's emphasis on the principle of equality and respect. Nevertheless, many African countries are increasingly aware of the benefits and risks of engaging with China which is largely shaped by a donor-recipient dynamic. 

What does it mean?
These eight major developments in Africa during 2024 are likely to shape Africa in 2025. 

While elections in Southern African countries witnessed a much more democratic transition, Arab African countries like Tunisia and Egypt saw a slow shift from an illiberal democracy to an authoritarian regime. Senegal’s democratic victory was an exception in West Africa. The violence in Mozambique has increased the fear of the rise of another illiberal democracy in East Africa. While Southern Africa can maintain its democratic credentials, the rest of Africa seems to be taking a road away from democratic ideals.            

While the war in Gaza and Ukraine is given much international attention, despite a similar or more human cost, the war in Sudan is being sidelined and is of the least priority compared. Neither the regional and international actors can bring the warring parties to a negotiating table nor they have made enough efforts to quell the violence. Multiple failed efforts to end the war also point to another failed approach of international actors in dealing with conflicts in Africa.

Similar to Sudan, the conflicts in Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are a major concern. If the violence in Ethiopia’s Tigray, Oromia, Amhara and Afar regions are to escalate, added to the war in Sudan, the Horn of Africa would witness a major humanitarian disaster. It would be added to extreme climate events experienced in the region with the el-Nino phenomenon in the Indian Ocean dipole. The situation in Sudan, Ethiopia and DRC also points to the inaction and ineffectiveness of regional actors including the African Union and ECOWAS. While all the African regional organizations are controlled by Africa’s leading democracies and economies, in reality, they lack the trust, capacity and influence to mediate in any internal affairs. 

Kenyan protests successfully impacted African youth and their ability to mobilise the masses. However, apart from an immediate success, the long-term success of African protests has always been disappointing. These protests will likely recur and die instantly.

With the West leaving, Russia entering and the new Sahel Alliance, 2025 will be an important year for the Sahel. How the region will fight insecurity issues will be anticipated in 2025. Additionally, Africa has become a major battleground for the geopolitical ambitions of its traditional Western partners and now new actors like Russia, China, India, Japan, the UAE, Iran, Kuwait and South Korea. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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