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CWA # 1638, 31 March 2025
NIAS Africa Studies
The War in Sudan: On the brink of dividing the country

  Anu Maria Joseph

On 27 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced, “Khartoum is free.” The comment denoted the SAF’s victory and recapture of Khartoum, pushing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) out of the capital.

In this quarter, the SAF’s victory in Khartoum was a major change in the course of the two years of civil war in Sudan. But not enough to end the war. The country has had to face three civil wars since its independence. However, the current one, which started in April 2023, was the worst, inducing the world’s largest humanitarian crisis and bringing it to the brink of another division. 

I - Major Developments during January- March 2025

The following were the major developments in Sudan during the last quarter:

The Battle of Khartoum
Weeks before Burhan announced “Khartoum is free,” the SAF had begun its bid to recapture the capital. On 22 March, the SAF captured the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The SAF offensives began by ending the RSF’s siege on the army headquarters on 25 January. By March, the army pushed the RSF out of Jebel Awliya Dam Bridge and Manshiya Bridge and finally took over the presidential palace. The major victory came after SAF's short victories across the country; it recaptured el-Obeid city on 24 February, Wad Madani on 12 January and areas around greater Khartoum in February. Once the presidential palace and the Khartoum airport were under the SAF’s control, it was just a matter of time to capture the entire capital, which was achieved by the end of the quarter.

RSF’s parallel government plan
Meanwhile, on 23 February, the RSF signed a political charter in Nairobi, Kenya, to establish a parallel government in areas under its control. The SAF responded by banning all imports from Kenya to Sudan.

US genocide allegations and UNICEF report
January 2025 began with US genocide allegations against the RSF and sanctions on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan for war crimes. In March, UNICEF released a report on "Sudan's Child Rape and Sexual Violence Crisis." UNICEF executive director Catherine Russell commented on the report: "Children as young as one being raped by armed men should shock anyone to their core and compel immediate action." According to the report, 221 rape cases against children were recorded in 2024.

II - Issues

A background to the two years of war
The war in Sudan started as a rivalry between the military heads of the SAF and the RSF, Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Hamdan Dagalo. Later, it escalated in terms of its intensity and geography, evolving into a civil war, ethnic conflict and a regional crisis. Beyond the capital Khartoum, it has spread to Omdurman, Bahri, El Fasher and Port Sudan cities, and Darfur and Kordofan states. The RSF was in control of the capital Khartoum, several other major cities of Omdurman, Bahri and Wad Madani and the states of Darfur and Kordofan. However, since August, the SAF began a major offensive and has recaptured Khartoum and several other major cities. The war has killed more than 20,000 people, according to the UN. Both sides are accused of carrying out war crimes and sexual violence against civilians, especially in Darfur states. A famine was declared in the Zamzam IDP camp in North Darfur state by the UN in August. According to the UN-IPC Famine Review Committee, 14 regions in the Greater Darfur, South and North Kordofan, and Jazeera states deal with conditions similar to Zamzam. According to the UN, the war has displaced more than 13 million people within Sudan and to neighbouring countries including South Sudan, Chad, Central African Republic and Ethiopia.

The SAF’s Battle of Khartoum
 The recapture of the presidential palace denotes a strategic and symbolic victory for the SAF. The palace symbolises power and sovereignty and supports the SAF’s legitimacy claims as Sudan’s authority fighting a militant group. Strategically, the SAF successfully cleared the outer areas of greater Khartoum and pushed the RSF out of the presidential palace, which is situated in central Khartoum. This implies that although RSF has troops inside Khartoum, it has lost its control of the capital.

The RSF’s bid for a parallel government
Although the RSF lost Khartoum, it is still in control of vast territories in the states of Darfur and Kordofan. With the support of Kenya, the RSF, along with the rebel group SPLM-N in South Kordofan, and several other militias, have signed a transitional constitution for their “New Sudan” in early March. Although RSF’s parallel government is not expected to receive international recognition, the move would potentially divide the country similar to that of Libya.

Increasing regional tensions
The SAF accuses the UAE of supplying weapons to RSF. Although the UAE has denied, it is allegedly supplying weapons through Chad and the smuggling routes in the Central African Republic. The SAF announced retaliatory actions against Chad, South Sudan and the UAE for supporting the RSF in the war, triggering regional tensions and concerns of a regional spillover.

Mediations on pause
Since the war began, there have been more than nine rounds of mediation efforts, predominantly led by Saudi Arabia and the US. However, this quarter did not witness any mediation efforts attributed to the previous failures and attention received by crisis in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine. The failure of mediations in Sudan is due to two reasons: The warring parties are adamant about gaining a territorial upper hand and claiming the country's legitimate leadership. Secondly, the abundant flow of weapons, despite the UN arms embargo, has given the warring parties a strong incentive to disregard the peace talks efforts and continue the violence. 

III - Implications

In a month, the war in Sudan will cross two years. Although SAF has made major advancements in the capital, Khartoum, defeating the RSF is far from happening. Both military factions have an abundant supply of weapons, troops and ground as incentives to continue the fighting. The war is almost on the verge of dividing the country. 

The next quarter would likely see the RSF establishing a parallel government in Darfur and Kordofan states. The Arab-aligned RSF rule would be welcomed by the Arab communities in the region. But, RSF’s rule means the non-Arab communities like the Masalit in Darfur would have to face another tragedy similar to the Darfur crisis in 2004. Consequently, Sudan will likely see a widespread migration from Darfur and Kordofan to the SAF-held Sudan and neighbouring countries of Chad, South Sudan, the Central African Republic and Ethiopia. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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