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CWA # 1643, 30 April 2025
NIAS Africa Studies
What has brought South Sudan to the brink of another civil war?

  C Shraddha

On 26 March, the National Security Service "forcefully entered" Vice President Riek Machar's residence to arrest him. Machar's house was stormed by the National Security Service, SSPDF and the Tiger Division. Under the orders of President Salva Kiir, Machar was placed under house arrest. His party Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLA/IO), representative stated: "All of Mr. Machar's aides and protection officers were arrested and moved to separate locations." The SPLM/IO deputy leader, Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, declared: "The arrest and detention of H.E. Dr Riek Machar effectively brings the [peace] agreement to a collapse." He added: "The prospect for peace and stability in South Sudan has now been put into serious jeopardy."

On 28 March, during a press conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres requested leaders to abandon their weapons and prioritise the lives of the citizens. He stated, "Let's not mince words: What we are seeing is darkly reminiscent of the 2013 and 2016 civil wars, which killed 400,000 people." Additionally, he called for the renewal of the 2018 peace agreement and the immediate release of the detainees. 

What caused the recent tensions?
The tensions began after the clashes between the South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the military wing of the SPLA/IO in the West Equatoria state in January. On 14 February, another wave of violence erupted in the northeastern state of Upper Nile between the SSPDF and the White Army, an armed militia group alleged to be allied with Machar. The crisis worsened when the militia group invaded an army base in Nasir. These incidents resulted in renewed hostility between President Salva Kiir and Machar, rivals who fought the South Sudan civil war, which ended with a peace agreement in 2018. The following day, President Kiir ordered the detention and dismissal of political and army figures close to Machar, including Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam and Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, alongside his family and bodyguards. 

How have the recurring instances of violence affected the peace agreement?
The arrest of Machar and his allies signifies the possible end of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The 2018 agreement between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar ended the country's five-year-long civil war. The peace deal mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) stipulated specific terms to ensure cordiality. The two warring factions- SPLM and SPLM/IO- were directed to unite their armies, draft a new constitution, disarm all other armed groups and prepare for general elections. However, despite the agreement, none of the reforms have been adequately instituted. It took two years for the country to establish a national unity government, while the conduct of national elections was postponed repeatedly. The formation of a national army and efforts to make a constitution moved at an even sluggish pace. Additionally, armed ethnic violence conducted by different groups has continued to pillage the country. The clashes between armed factions of the government and the opposition and the arrest and detention of prominent political figures, have further deteriorated the foundations of the 2018 peace agreement.

How have the tensions affected South Sudan internally?
The increasing fear of another civil war has encouraged many people in South Sudan to seek early shelter in safe places and neighbouring countries. According to the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), approximately 2.22 million South Sudanese are already internally displaced, while 2.32 million have fled to neighbouring countries as a result of the 2013-2018 civil war. As the crisis escalates, citizens are fleeing to neighbouring countries, especially Ethiopia. The number of people crossing over to the Gambela region has increased from 6,900 on 6 March to over 10,000 by 10 March. Amidst the crisis, Wanthoa, Makar and Burbiey have emerged as safe havens, where refugees rely on the hospitality of local communities and survive in make-shift shelters. The exponential increase in refugees has triggered an urgent demand for immediate resource allocation across the border and neighbouring countries.

What have been the responses by regional and international actors?
The region is divided, with many supporting Kiir and others supporting Machar. Besides, several regional efforts to mediate between the two leaders are being sabotaged by either of them by accusing the mediators of being biased to one side. Meanwhile, besides the UN’s call for a de-escalation, there have not been any substantial efforts from the international community.

Uganda has expressed open support towards President Kiir. On 3 April, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni was greeted by Kiir at the airport. Museveni refrained from commenting on the crisis while informing the press that the countries would hold talks "aimed at strengthening bilateral relations and enhancing cooperation between our two nations". Kiir stated that the leaders would discuss the "current political developments in the country."

Later on 11 March, Uganda's military chief, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, announced the deployment of the country's troops to South Sudan to "help secure the capital." Although Kainerugaba did not specify the duration of the deployment, his statements provide clarity towards Uganda's stance on the crisis. He added, "We, the UPDF (Ugandan military), only recognise one President of South Sudan, H.E. Salva Kiir … Any move against him is a declaration of war against Uganda! All those who commit that crime will learn what it means!"

Although the visit of Kenya's former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to the country was intended to broker peace between Kiir and Machar, it failed to achieve its goal. Kiir swiftly denied Odinga's statement, claiming that the government had placed the Minister of Interior and Machar’s wife, Angelina Teny, under house arrest. The South Sudanese government also rejected claims that Kiir had requested Odinga to help mediate with President Museveni.

About the author
C Shraddha is a postgraduate student at OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.

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