Advik S Mohan

On 11 September 2024, the former Governor-General of New Zealand and senior diplomat Sir Jerry Mateparae was brought on as a mediator for negotiations between the Papuan government and the ABG. The dispute was over the parliamentary procedures required for granting Bougainville independence. While the Papuan government claimed a two-thirds majority in parliament was required for ratification, the ABG claimed a simple majority was enough. With negotiations at a deadlock; the President of the ABG, Ishmael Toroama accused the Papuan government of deliberating delaying independence. 

On 11 December 2019, the results of an independence referendum in Bougainville were announced. According to the results, 98 per cent of the voters favoured complete independence for Bougainville. The 2019 referendum saw an 87 per cent voter turnout, with 181,000 out of 205,000 eligible voters participating. However, the referendum was non-binding, meaning the Parliament of Papua New Guinea needed to vote on ratification of the referendum.

The island of Bougainville, located near the Solomon Islands has been demanding independence from Papua New Guinea for decades. Despite the Bougainville population voting for independence in a referendum, independence appears to be a distant possibility as of now.

Where is Bougainville? And what is the problem there?
Bougainville is an island located off the coast of Papua New Guinea in the Pacific Ocean. The island has a population of about 300,000 with a majority of the inhabitants being Christian and communicating in their own indigenous languages. The linguistic diversity of Bougainville can be gauged from the fact that none of the languages are spoken by more than 20 per cent of the population. Thus, the dialect of Tok Pisin is used as a link language by residents.  Bougainville forms a part of the Solomon Islands archipelago, away from mainland Papua New Guinea.  

Bougainville is located in the middle of the Pacific; and was ruled by the German Empire and invaded by Japan during World War II After the war, the Government of Australia incorporated it as a part of the Territory of Papua New Guinea. On 1 September, a few months before Papua New Guinea was supposed to gain independence, Bougainville declared independence unilaterally as the Republic of North Solomons. 

The reasons for Bougainville declaring independence were rooted in differences of identity; since the residents of Bougainville saw themselves as more genetically connected with the neighbouring Solomon Islands, rather than Papua New Guinea. The residents of Bougainville were darker-skinned than the Papuan residents and used it as a marker of their distinct identity.

Although, the new Papuan government succeeded in repressing the rebellion, tensions remained. There were little attempts made to integrate the residents of Bougainville with the rest of the country. For instance, a copper mine opened to extract Bougainville’s substantial copper reserves had a segregated apartheid system with migrants from other parts of Papua New Guinea enjoying advantages over the Bougainville locals. The mine generated an estimated 12 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product of Papua New Guinea, at one point. However, estimates showed the local landowners received only 1.4 per cent of the benefits from the USD 1.44 billion generated from the 17 years of copper extraction; while 61.5 per cent went to the Papuan government.  Additionally, the mine extracted a severe toll on the environment. In 2020, a report from the human rights group, the Human Rights Law Centre which was compiled through interviews with locals revealed the lasting impacts; alleging that waste from the mine had flowed into the nearby rivers and contaminated the water. According to the report, thousands of families had to depend on the contaminated rivers for drinking water and bathing. A legal advisor to the ABG, Anthony Regan stated that Bougainvilleans began asking why their resources were being exploited by Papua New Guinea.

These tensions culminated in the Bougainville conflict between the Bougainville Revolutionary Army and the Government of Papua New Guinea, waged between 1988 and 1998. At least 15,000 individuals died in the conflict. At the end of the conflict, a peace agreement was signed which established the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG). One of the provisions of the peace agreement was also an independence referendum to be held in the territory.

What led to the recent developments relating to independence?
The recent dispute shows how Bougainville’s push for independence has stalled, nearly five years after the referendum. On 11 December 2019, the results of an independence referendum in Bougainville were announced; with 98 per cent of the voters favouring complete independence for Bougainville. The 2019 referendum saw an 87 per cent voter turnout, with 181,000 out of 205,000 eligible voters participating. However, the referendum was non-binding, meaning the Parliament of Papua New Guinea needed to vote on ratification of the referendum. While the ABG has aimed for independence by 2027, the Papuan government has been accused of trying to derail independence.

The Papuan parliament fears allowing Bougainville to secede could pave the way for further successful secessionist movements in the country. Papua New Guinea is one of the world’s most diverse nations, with over 1,000 ethnic groups and over 800 languages. The Papuan government fears giving one part of the country independence could trigger a domino effect, with other areas demanding independence as well. The Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, James Marape stated Bougainville needed to aspire for economic, rather than political independence. A report by an economist Satish Chand for the National Research Centre of Papua New Guinea stated the country would struggle to be financially independent. The 2020 budget for Bougainville was USD 124.1 million, out of which 85 per cent was accounted by the PNG government. According to Chand, the PNG government would have to supply half of the budget for an independent Bougainville. Thus, the Papuan government is of the opinion it would have to invest in Bougainville, even after independence.

What are the potential international ramifications of an independent Bougainville?
While Bougainville is small in terms of size and population, a potential independent state might still have regional implications. The Government of the People’s Republic of China has been attempting to increase its influence across the Pacific nations for the past few years. The independence of Bougainville could grant it a new ally. In 2019, the Chinese government offered a developmental aid package to Bougainville, which included plans to build facilities like highways, bridges, and airports on the island. A businessman and former General of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army, Sam Kauona stated China had approached Bougainville with offers of developmental aid; while the US had not. Additionally, Bougainville lies in close proximity to and shares cultural affinity with the Solomon Islands, one of China’s closest allies in the region. However, neither China nor any other nation has explicitly supported independence for Bougainville. On the contrary, Beijing has reaffirmed support for the sovereignty of Papua New Guinea and attempted to maintain close ties with the nation. Therefore, foreign intervention in the Bougainville independence struggle is likely to be limited. Nevertheless, a Bougainville government seeking foreign aid and alliances could be compelled to seek close ties with Beijing. China gaining another ally could pose a challenge to the strategic interests of the US Government and its allies like Australia in the region.

About the author
Advik S Mohan is a Research Intern at NIAS.

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