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CWA # 1522, 30 October 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Moldova’s Referendum: Between EU membership, Russian influence and public dissatisfaction

  Advik S Mohan

In October, Moldova held a referendum on EU membership alongside its presidential elections. The referendum results of changing the Moldovan constitution to include membership of the EU saw 50.46 per cent in favour of adding a clause in the constitution to add EU membership.  Only 46 per cent of voters living in Moldova supported the constitutional change. Besides, the Moldova’s presidential elections witnessed no candidate winning an absolute majority. Maia Sandu, the incumbent President from the liberal PAS party won the first round. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Moldova had shown it was independent, strong, and wanted a European future, despite the hybrid tactics used by Russia. The Government of the Russian Federation expressed doubt over the election results. 

The referendum was opposed by opposition parties in Moldova. Additionally, the local governments in the breakaway region of Transnistria and the autonomous region of Gagauzia also have opposed the referendum.  

What are the major issues?
First, differences over Moldova’s ties with Russia and the EU.  Russia has traditionally played a dominant role in Moldova as a close economic partner. However,  the perceptions have altered in recent years, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the incumbent Moldovan government under President Sandu has tried to move closer to the EU, prioritizing membership of the bloc. In June 2022, EU gave Moldova the candidate status. 

In October 2023, the new national security strategy of the Moldovan government designated Russia and its proxies as a persistent threat to Moldova. Similarly, the Moldovan government has attempted to reduce its dependence upon Russia for energy supplies. The Moldovan government also changed the legal definition of high treason in the Criminal Code, by providing assistance to a foreign state and foreign organization and carrying out hostile activities through disinformation campaigns listed as criminal offences. The Sandu government justified the changes as required to tackle Russian influence. Russia has been accused of trying to tackle its waning influence by pumping large amounts of cash into Moldova. The Moldovan government accused Russia of using mafia tactics by running a pyramid scheme attempting to bribe Moldovan voters with the support of Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch residing in Russia. Valeriu Pasha, a program manager at the thinktank WatchDog. MD Community stated Russia ran an interference operation worth EUR 150 million, severely impacting the election results.  

Second, public dissatisfaction over the slow-paced economy and corruption. The economy was negatively impacted by the decline in trade with both Russia and Ukraine and the difficulties in switching from Russian energy supplies. Gazprom slashed one-third of its energy supplies to Moldova. Inflation in Moldova remained high for most of the past two years, being above 30 per cent regularly. Additionally, many Moldovans were frustrated with the perceived slow pace of the Sandu government in dealing with corruption, implementing reforms, economic dissatisfaction and frustration with the government as a fertile ground.

Third, regional tensions in Gagauzia and Transnistria. Historically, Russia enjoy greater influence in these two regions. Transnistria declared independence from Moldova in the 1990s and has sustained for over three decades as a partially recognized state with Russian support. Actions by the Moldovan government such as making political demands for the independence of Transnistria punishable with imprisonment and enforcing greater customs checks on goods from Transnistria added to the alienation felt by residents in Transnistria. The majority of the residents in Gagauzia, speak Russian, rather than Romania. Additionally, local politicians in Gagauzia supported by Russia like Evghenia Gutul, the Governor of Gagauzia have blamed the Moldovan government and the EU for high inflation and energy prices. Gagauzia is one of the poorest regions of Moldova, with an estimated 40 per cent of the population living below the poverty line. The Russian government has promised preferential access to the Russian market for goods from Gagauzia and payments for pensioners and public-sector employees. The sense of alienation felt in these regions helped the opposition and anti-EU forces gain during the election.

What next for Moldova?
The future of Moldovan politics hinges upon the results of the run-off of the presidential elections between Sandu and Stoianoglo on 03 November.  A victory for Sandu will mean a continuation of the existing policies of the Moldovan government, more inclined towards the EU rather than Russia.  However, the election results have shown a substantial part of Moldova is opposed to the Sandu government. In a prospective second term, Sandu might be compelled to accommodate the opposition's views more, especially on Russia. This might make taking decisions like holding the EU referendum and presidential election together or changing the definition of treason more difficult, with greater criticism.  Whereas, a victory for Stoianoglo has led to fears that the Moldovan government will be more inclined towards supporting Russia, rather than the EU. 

While Stoianoglo has stated he supports the European aspirations of Moldova, some members of the opposition alliance like the Gagauzia government have already taken a stridently pro-Russian stance and are sceptical of the EU. A government led by Stoianoglo might place accession to the EU as a lower priority than a Sandu government. However, public sentiment in Moldova is also antagonistic towards Russia after the Ukraine invasion. Thus, a new Moldovan government would face public pressure if it completely gravitated towards Russia. The polarization between those favouring closer ties with Russia or the EU is likely to continue, irrespective of who wins the presidential election. 

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