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CWA # 1793, 14 August 2025
CW Note
Trump-Putin talks on Ukraine: The tough road ahead

  Padmashree Anandhan

In the news
On 14 August, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with European leaders and US President Donald Trump, held a virtual meeting. This comes ahead of the direct talks between Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. During the meeting, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz stressed that Europe’s and Ukraine's security interests should be valued and that Ukraine should be present in the next set of negotiations. France’s President Emmanuel Macron, on the territory exchange, said: “…must only be discussed with Ukraine.” Zelenskyy warned: “Russia is attempting to portray itself as capable of occupying all of Ukraine…Everything concerning Ukraine must be discussed exclusively with Ukraine.” The coalition of willing, containing 31 countries, issued a statement: “If Russia refuses a ceasefire in Alaska, sanctions and other economic measures should be intensified.”

On the same day, following the online meeting, Trump confirmed the possibility of a second meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. He also stressed on finding a way to end the war. He said: “I want to end the war. It’s Biden’s war, but I want to end it.”

On 12 August, 26 EU member states issued a joint statement calling for just and stable peace for Ukraine, along with security guarantees. They stressed on participation of Ukraine in the discussion involving any land swap and ceasefire. They also committed to strengthening Ukraine’s self-defence capabilities and EU membership. However, Hungary did not join the declaration, citing that it was wrong to set conditions on the sidelines of the dialogue. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban's friendly equation with Russia and his history of rejecting sanctions on Russia were viewed as major reasons.

Issues at large
First, a brief note on Trump-Putin talks so far. The attempts taken till now by the Trump administration to slow Russia’s offensive on the ground have not been successful. The continued aerial attacks and no progress at the negotiation table, except for prisoner exchanges, added to Trump’s frustrations. Despite the 50-day or ten-days reduced deadline, Russia remains stubborn on its demand to Ukraine to cede the annexed territories. With no positive signal from Russia at the military and political level, shows stagnation and uncertainty in attaining any deal.

Second, Ukraine’s territory under Russia’s control and its strategic importance. As of August, Russia controls 114,000 square kilometres or 19 to 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory. This includes Crimea, 99 per cent of Luhansk, 75 per cent of Donetsk, 73 per cent of Zaporizhzhia, 69 per cent of Kherson and a few parts of Kharkiv and Sumy regions. The annexed territories, combined with Crimea, provide a strategic advantage to Russia in geopolitical, military and economic terms. With Crimea serving as a power projection into the Mediterranean Sea, Donetsk and Luhansk serve as a political symbol to protect the Russian-speaking population. Whereas, Zaporizhzhia gives access to key energy assets and serves as a link between Crimea and Donbas. The Dnipro River in Kherson gives control to the North Crimean Canal, providing water supply and securing Russia’s southern flank. Overall, the four regions form a corridor from Russia’s border to Crimea, cutting out Ukraine’s access to major parts of its coastline.

Third, Europe’s united efforts for Ukraine. Since Trump’s presidency, Europe has remained sidelined in the direct talks. However, starting from the formation of the “coalition of willing,” advancing the military weapon to coordinating the sanctions on Russia, Europe has increased its efforts to boost the NATO alliance. It has used the multilateral forums and has gathered the countries to outline the red lines for Ukraine in the negotiation and ensure security guarantees. Through this, it has played a decisive role in shaping the conflict. 

In perspective
There are three possible outputs of the direct talks and it would mainly focus on diplomacy, humanitarian and less on the geographic factors. First, the meeting would be a symbolic gesture in continuation of Trump’s ongoing mediation efforts across the war in Gaza and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. This would showcase Trump’s diplomatic ability to act as a link between Ukraine and Russia but also include Europe’s perspectives. Second, there can be limited deals facilitating more prisoner swaps, a temporary ceasefire for civilian aid. Lastly, discussions on the land swap would remain nascent since for Ukraine and Europe, ceding any territory is a red line. 

About the author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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