Vetriselvi Baskaran

By Vetriselvi Baskaran

Introduction 
On 09 June, Belgium held its 10th European Parliament elections to elect the Belgian delegation. The polling was conducted in three Belgian constituencies, the Dutch-speaking electoral college, the French-speaking electoral college, and the German-speaking electoral college. 

On 13 June, according to the primary results, the far-right parties made the biggest gains. Vlaams Belang (alliance with far-right Identity and Democrats, ID party) won three seats and N-VA (alliance with European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), right-wing party) won three seats.  

Election process
Belgium's voting process is complex and requires citizens to vote at least three times on  9 June for the regional, national, and European Parliaments. Belgium is one of four EU member states that allows 16 and 17-year-olds to vote in the European elections and one of the few countries with compulsory attendance, meaning every eligible citizen must turn up and enter a polling booth. Non-voting citizens can face fines between EUR 40 and 80, and repeat offenders risk losing their citizenship. Voting takes place either on paper or electronically, with all polling stations in Brussels being electronic. In Wallonia, voting is always done on paper due to digital voting being considered insecure and too expensive. Votes can be cast for one or more candidates or the party itself. The top candidates are the top politicians in their party, while the last candidate is a “popular politician” who contributes to their party's success. Only parties that receive at least 5 per cent of the votes cast can form a government. 

How they voted
The European Council allocated an additional seat for Belgium for 2024 in the June 2023 report, prompted by the demographic changes. This makes the total seats 22 for Belgium. This makes eight seats for the French-speaking, one for the German-speaking, and 13 for the Dutch. The seats were attributed according to the D’Hondt method. Belgium also holds the rotating Presidency this year. "
According to the Election Europeanness, the Dutch-speaking electoral college, Vlaams Belang has an alliance with Identity and Democrats (ID) secured 22.94 per cent of votes, and the New Flemish Alliance with ECR secured 22.09 per cent votes secured three seats in the European parliament. The third strongest party is the French-speaking Movement Réformateur (MR) Party in the Wallonia region, gaining 34 per cent of the votes and increasing its representatives from two to three states. 

Performance in the last three EU elections
In the 2019 European Parliament election in Belgium, the Socialist Party (PS) emerged as the top vote-getter, securing 16.6 per cent of the vote and 4 seats. The Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA) followed closely with 14.6 per cent of the vote and 3 seats. The Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (CD&V) and Mouvement Réformateur (MR) parties also performed well, each capturing 12.3 per cent and 11.8 per cent of the vote respectively, and 3 seats each. The Green party Groen received 11.7 per cent of the vote and two seats, while the far-right Vlaams Belang (VB) party secured 11.6 per cent of the vote and three seats.
In the 2014 European Parliament election, the nationalist N-VA party dominated the results, winning 26.7 per cent of the vote and four seats. The PS came in second with 19.3 per cent of the vote and five seats, followed by the CD&V and MR parties with 15.6 per cent and 14.5 per cent of the vote respectively, each winning four seats. The Green party Groen received 5.5 per cent of the vote and one seat, while the Vlaams Belang party garnered 6.7 per cent of the vote and one seat. The 2009 European Parliament election saw the PS emerge as the top vote-getter, securing 19.0 per cent of the vote and four seats. The CD&V and N-VA parties tied for second place, receiving 14.4 per cent of the vote and three seats. The MR party closely followed with 14.2 per cent of the vote and three seats. The far-right Vlaams Belang party received 12.1 per cent of the vote and two seats, while the Groen party captured 7.4 per cent and two seats.

Major trends; 
After analysing the voting trends of the last three EU elections in Belgium, the nationalist or right-wing party N-VA has seen a significant decline in support, going from 26.7 per cent of the vote in 2014 to just 14.6 per cent in 2019. In contrast, the left-wing PS party has maintained relatively stable support over the period, ranging from 16.6 per cent to 19.3 per cent of the vote. The centre-right CD & V and MR parties have also remained competitive, though with some fluctuations in their vote share over the last three European Parliament elections in Belgium. One of the more notable trends has been the steady increase in support for the Green party Groen, which has risen from 5.5 per cent of the vote in 2014 to 11.7 per cent in 2019, however, it fell short in the 2024 elections. Meanwhile, the far-right Vlaams Belang party has seen some variation in its level of support. Still, it continues to be a significant force in Belgian politics, securing over 11 per cent of the vote in the most recent 2019 election. Overall, the political landscape in Belgium for European Parliament elections appears to be quite fragmented, with no single party dominating the results in recent years. However, this year witnessed a massive shift to the right-wing parties and the conservative-liberal MR party gained mass support. 

Issues in voting
Regional differences
The European Parliament elections in Belgium have significant regional differences: Belgium is divided into three constituencies for the European Parliament elections: the Dutch-speaking constituency (13 seats), the French-speaking constituency (eight seats), and the German-speaking constituency (one seat). The Dutch-speaking constituency covers the Flanders region and Brussels voters who choose to vote for Dutch-speaking candidates. The French-speaking constituency covers the Wallonia region and Brussels voters who choose to vote for French-speaking candidates. The German-speaking constituency covers the small German-speaking community.  The constituencies use different voting systems. The Dutch and French-speaking constituencies use party-list proportional representation, while the German-speaking constituency has a single member elected through a non-proportional system. Additionally, voting is compulsory for Belgian citizens aged 16 and over, but optional for EU citizens residing in Belgium. This results in different voter turnout rates across the regions. The regional divisions and distinct voting systems in Belgium lead to different election results and representation in the European Parliament across the country's linguistic communities. The election campaigns were also exclusively dominated by national issues which differ in every disctrict. These regional differences significantly resulted in the voting. 

Decline of Greens
The Greens in Belgium suffered significant losses in the 2024 European Parliament elections. In the Dutch-speaking constituency, the Greens (Groen) only won one seat, down from two seats in 2019. Similarly, in the French-speaking constituency, the Greens (Ecolo) also only won one seat, down from two seats in 2019. Overall, the Belgian Greens lost a total of two seats in the European Parliament, going from four seats down to two seats. The main reasons for the Greens' decline in Belgium include a few key factors. First, the Greens were criticized for mismanaging policies, such as the "Good Move" mobility plan in Brussels, which hurt their reputation among voters. Additionally, voter priorities shifted away from climate change and environmental issues towards concerns over the cost of living and security, which worked against the Greens. The global trend of declining Green party support was also seen in Belgium, mirroring losses for Greens in other European countries like Germany and France. Finally, the personalization of politics in Belgium, with voters favoring well-known personalities like former Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès, also contributed to the Greens' decline.

Voter turnout and abstention
Belgium faced challenges with voter turnout and abstention in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Voting is compulsory for Belgian citizens aged 16 and over, but the abstention rate appeared slightly higher compared to previous elections, amounting to up to 13 per cent. The 2019 EU elections saw 88.38 per cent voter turnout, however, it was reduced to 87.8 per cent. Since 2010, there has been a declining trend in the voter turnout rate. This compulsory voting system, combined with simultaneous national and regional elections, made Belgium a "least-likely case" to find strong effects of EU issues on voting behavior at the national level. However, the simultaneous elections divided the attention of parties, media, and voters across the different electoral levels, with national and regional issues often overshadowing European ones. While Belgians are generally supportive of the EU, the "second-order" nature of European elections meant that national issues took precedence in the campaign, potentially decreasing the salience of EU-level concerns. The complexity of the voting process, with voters having to cast ballots for three different government levels, may have also contributed to higher abstention rates.

Social and economic crisis
A broader social and economic crisis influenced the 2024 European Parliament elections in Belgium. The cost-of-living crisis and concerns over rising inflation and energy prices were major issues for Belgian voters. According to the International Monetary Fund, it is estimated that the economic growth is likely to decelerate and inflation which was lower in 2023 is anticipated to pick up in 2024. The fiscal deficit would remain high and the overall deficit will go up about five and a half per cent in the upcoming years. Socially, this shifted priorities away from environmental and climate change issues, which had previously been a strength for the Greens. Security concerns, including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and the energy crisis, also became more salient for voters compared to the 2019 elections. This dynamic worked against the Greens, whose platform was more focused on environmental and social issues. 

Conclusion: The Road Ahead
1. Shift to the right wing
The elections in Belgium saw a significant shift towards right-wing and nationalist parties. This was seen as a rejection of the previous centre-right coalition led by Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose liberal OpenVLD party lost the elections. In the southern region of Wallonia and Brussels, the liberal MR party defeated the Socialists who had a firm grip on power. This shows people’s need for change and reform. The shift in voting depicts people aligning with right-wing ideologies. The right-wing parties’ campaigns were centred around aggressive social media advertising and a focus on engaging younger voters through viral, "storytelling" content achieved the anticipated success. The Belgium winners, N-VA, MR, and the VB campaigned for economic reform by shifting their focus from climate change and other interests focussed by the Greens, who faced a sharp decline. 

2. Protests following the EU election results
More than 4500 people marched through Brussels protesting against the political right and racism. The demonstration was organized by the Anti-fascist Coordination of Belgium (CAB) which brought together around 20 social movements and organizations. This is the second such march in the Belgian capital denouncing the far-right since the EU elections on June 9th which saw right and far-right parties winning big. It is to show that the rise of the far-right was not "inevitable" and that it was important to confront it by building social and democratic alternatives.

Print

Bookmark