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CWA # 1460, 21 August 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Attack on Nord Stream: Two years later

  Neha Tresa George

What did the media reports say?
Two years after the Nord Stream 1&2 pipelines attack, the geopolitical repercussions remain to be settled. The underwater blasts occurred on 26 September 2022 disabling the pipelines thereby cutting down the transit of Russian gas for Germany and other European countries. The investigations held by Sweden and Denmark were inconclusive making Germany responsible for responding. The issue resurfaced when reports emerged from Süddeutsche Zeitung and Wall Street Journal on the possible involvement of “Ukrainian divers” with support from Kyiv officials in the sabotage. These claims were denied by Ukraine.

Following this, on 14 August, Germany issued an arrest warrant against a Ukrainian living in Poland. The suspect was identified as Volodymyr Z accused of sabotaging Nord Stream pipelines that connected Russia and Western European countries, especially Germany, through the Baltic Sea. According to the Polish authorities, the man had escaped from Poland and away from the EU after the arrest was issued in June. They condemned Germany's inactions as the accused was not listed as a wanted person in the Schengen register.

On 16 August, August Hanning, Germany's former intelligence chief indicated Poland's alleged involvement in the blast. In response, Krzysztof Gawkowski, Polish deputy prime minister said: " Poland did not take part in anything." On the same day, Sergei Ryabkov Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia said: “Our assumption was that the US and several NATO allies were involved in this disgusting crime.” In the past two years, Russia has accused the British navy specialists and the US of planning and implementing the attack. On 19 August, Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister accused the US of their alleged involvement in the sabotage.

What/ Where is the Nord Stream and its strategic importance?
The Nord Stream pipelines were 1,224-kilometre offshore natural gas pipelines connecting Russia and Western European countries. It was built by Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom and ran under the Baltic Sea, starting from Vyborg in Russia to Lubmin near Greifswald in Germany. It crossed the Exclusive Economic Zones of Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany and the territorial waters of Russia, Denmark, and Germany. It was set up by Gazprom, Ruhrgas and BASF/Wintershall in 2005. It comprised two separate projects- Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. The first pipeline was completed in 2011. However, the construction of the second pipeline was delayed by sanctions and debates over the increased Russian dominance in the EU markets. Although it was completed in 2021, the certification of the pipeline was deterred by Germany amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics.

The inauguration of Nord Stream 1 in 2011 marked the beginning of a safe and sustainable relationship between Russia and the EU. It was the first pipeline to create a direct link between Russia and Western European countries bypassing the traditional transit routes through Ukraine, Belarus and Poland which were unreliable according to Russia. Since both sides were gaining profits equally, Germany had entrusted Russia as the long-term supplier. The UK was also keen on the Baltic Sea Pipeline and the cheap Russian gas. Therefore, they signed a "bilateral energy pact" with Russia to extend a set of pipelines through Germany and the Netherlands towards the North Sea. Apart from acting as a key to the Russia-EU partnership, it was also a reliable and cheap gas resource. Bovanenkovo oil and gas condensate deposits were the main natural gas base for the Nord Stream Pipeline. The pipes could transport 55 billion cubic metres, supplying energy to around 26 million households. Russia's cheap gas exports, found their place in the EU market, with their overall share climbing from 31 per cent in 2010 to 40 per cent in 2016.

What happened on 26 September 2022 and since then?
On 26 September 2022, several leaks were found in three of the four gas lines running east of the Danish Island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. Seismic institutes also recorded some underwater explosions 17 hours apart. Initial estimates revealed that a total of 500 million cubic meters of gas was lost. On further investigation, authorities concluded the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines to be "sabotaged." The leakage stopped only after several days. Sweden, Denmark and Germany took up investigations. However, in February 2024, both authorities of Sweden and Denmark ended the investigations, unlike Germany. They cited "lack of jurisdiction" and "complications” as reasons for halting the investigations, however found no evidence of its citizens being involved. Denmark acknowledged the occurrence of sabotage. It found traces of explosives near the pipelines thus concluding the explosion was a “deliberate act.” In 2023, four Nordic public broadcasters published an investigative report indicating Russia's involvement in the blast. Moscow denied the claims while accusing the US and the UK. In the same year, US intelligence officials had suspected a pro-Ukrainian group for planning the attack which Ukraine denied.

German media outlets ARD, Süddeutsche Zeitung and Die Zeit revealed the involvement of Volodymyr Z., a diver who allegedly dived 80 metres down and placed the explosives. It also suspects two other Ukrainian diving instructors, Svitlana and Yevhen Uspenska, although no arrest warrants were issued. In July, Germany affirmed that its investigators had raided a sailing yacht used to transfer the explosives to the pipelines. They found traces of an octagon in the yacht, the same found at the blast site. However, there was no evidence of the involvement of the Ukrainian government according to the German officials.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal contacted four senior Ukrainian defence and security officials directly or indirectly involved in the act. According to the report, the scheme which cost around USD 300,000 had a six-member crew on board the yacht. The plan initially approved by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President was dropped after the CIA, the US intelligence agency demanded him to stop. However, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the then-military general moved forward with the operation as they believed the pipelines to be a legitimate target in their defence against Russia. Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK called the allegations as a “mere provocation” and denied his involvement.

The explosions and the investigations that followed led to a blame game between the countries. Denmark, Germany and Sweden did not find any “state participation” in their investigations except the Wall Street Journal which blamed Ukraine. The investigations so far could only trace the involvement of Volodymyr Z without a substantial conclusion.

References
“Nord Stream pipeline sabotage: Ukraine denies involvement,” Deutsche Welle, 15 August 2024
“Nord Stream: What's known about the mystery pipeline explosions?” Reuters, 07 February 2022
“Russia’s Lavrov says ‘clear’ that US ordered 2022 Nord Stream blasts,” Al Jazeera, 19 August 2024
“Nord Stream: Denmark closes investigation into pipeline blast,” BBC, 26 February 2024
“Ukrainian team blew up Nord Stream pipeline, claims report,” The Guardian, 15 August 2024
“Merkel and Medvedev Open Baltic Gas Pipeline,” Spiegel International, 08 November 2011
“The rise and fall of the Nord Stream pipeline: a brief history,” Transformative Humanities, 17 October 2017
 

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