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CWA # 1470, 16 September 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Vladimir Putin visits Mongolia: Who wants what?

  Neha Tresa George

On 02 September, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia visited Mongolia to commemorate the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Goel, where the joint alliance of the Soviet Union and Mongolia defeated the Japanese imperial army. Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, President of Mongolia welcomed him and highlighted the areas of cooperation in trade and economic partnership with Russia. He regarded the comprehensive strategic partnership between the countries as their "foreign policy priority." Both leaders noted the importance of the Mongolian Russian Intergovernmental Commission which promotes their mutual relationship and collaborations. They signed various agreements including the following: energy, health,  environment, and the reconstruction of the TPP-3 thermal power plant in Ulaanbaatar. Further, an MoU was signed between the Russian Federal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and Welfare and the Ministry of Health of Mongolia over the protection of Lake Baikal and the Selenga River. 

Putin welcomed Khurelsukh to attend the BRICS summit which was scheduled to be held in Kazan, Russia. 

Mongolia: Is it Russia’s East Asia Pivot?
Putin’s visit,  the first in five years, officially aimed at strengthening the bilateral trade and economic cooperation with Mongolia, and comes as part of Russia’s "Pivot to East Asia policy.” The second aims to extend Russia’s influence over the East Asian countries like China, North Korea, Vietnam and Kazakhstan. Historically, Russia had used Mongolia as a buffer zone from 1921 till the Cold War. 

Mongolia found a primary place in Russia’s foreign policy back in 2016. In 2020, Moscow promised a “comprehensive strategic partnership” in the areas of defence, energy and railway infrastructure. Russia’s primary interest in Mongolia lies in transforming it into a geostrategic and economic zone, and also countering Chinese and American interests. Russia also had pressured Mongolia to align with its regional initiatives like the Eurasian Economic Union and to use its far eastern ports rather than the Chinese ports in the Belt and Road Initiative. 

Mongolia is also a part of Russia's strategic project "Power of Siberia 2," the successor of an already existing pipeline, carrying natural gas from Russia to China. Russia claims 50 per cent ownership in the trans-Mongolian railway running through Mongolia, Russia and China.  With all these ventures, Russia has some leverage over Mongolia apart from their cultural ties. The visit also comes amidst increasing international isolationism against Russia in light of its war with Ukraine. By upgrading the relationship with Mongolia, Putin intends to have a stronghold over the East Asian economy while countering the western countries.

What is Mongolia’s interest in hosting Putin?
Although Mongolia adopted the policy of neutrality in the 1990s, its historical ties and close border with Russia has placed it in a difficult position. Mongolia is reliant on Russia for fuel and electricity imports. Around 28 per cent of Mongolia’s imports are from Russia with a huge dependency on petroleum products. 

Mongolia’s involvement in Russia’s strategic projects provides them with better connectivity and infrastructure in terms of gas pipelines and railway lines. Russia also serves as a counterbalancing factor when it comes to Sino-Mongolian relations, thus helping to maintain its ties with China. 

Mongolia acknowledges Russia’s geopolitical interests by seeking a policy of strategic diversification. It is Russia’s key partner from Asia in the Eurasian Economic Union from 2020. Since the agreement on “Comprehensive strategic partnership,” Mongolia has increased its economic and strategic ties with Russia. It was also looking forward to being part of the “Power of Siberia 2” strategic project which will further boost its relations with both Russia and China. Putin’s visit could also open the door for many such projects and infrastructure developments.  It considers Russia as a strategically important neighbour and continues to have a peaceful and mutually beneficial relationship with Russia. 

Mongolia is the only former communist regime that has adopted a democratic political system and open economy. This has helped the country to establish cordial relations with other countries like the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea. However, this third neighbour policy could deteriorate with Mongolia’s increasing relations with Russia and China. Especially in the context of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, Putin’s visit was closely watched by the western countries. It has tried to maintain its neutrality by not taking any particular side in the war. Putin’s arrival marks his first visit to an International Criminal Court (ICC) member country since an arrest warrant was issued against him over the illegal deportation of children in Ukraine. Despite pressure from the western countries and Ukraine, Mongolia’s refusal to detain him puts the country in a perilous position in the international arena. This act questions Mongolia’s third neighbour policy and membership in the ICC. Nevertheless, Putin’s arrival elevates Mongolia’s position in Russia’s foreign policy, thereby, benefitting its economy and infrastructure. 

References
“What are Russian interests in Mongolia?” , Mongolian Institute for Innovative Technologies, 09 September 2024
“Navigating the Triangular Dynamics: Mongol-Russian Relations in the Context of China,” CEIAS, 27 February 2024
“Mongolia in the middle of the Russia–Ukraine war,” East Asia Forum, 01 April 2023
“Putin’s visit to Mongolia defies ICC warrant and tests neutral nation’s ‘third neighbor’ diplomacy,” UMBC, 03 September 2024
“Putin in Mongolia amid ICC arrest warrant: Is the country defying international law?” Firstpost, 03 September 2024
“Russian-Mongolian talks,” Kremlin.ru, 03 September 2024
“Putin gets lavish welcome in Mongolia despite ICC warrant,” Reuters, 03 September 2024
 

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