Photo : president.gov.ua
Photo : president.gov.ua
By Shilpa Joseph and Ken B Varghese
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 12 June, France 24 reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian President made an unexpected visit to the Red Sea city of Jeddah and met Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. As a part of a series of visits he made to rally diplomatic support and attendance for the Swiss peace summit, he visited Saudi Arabia, which is yet to confirm its participation for the summit. Saudi Arabia has a strong oil diplomacy with Russia but also maintains a neutral stance, offering to be a peaceful mediator in the war. In August 2023, the country hosted talks on the war with participants from 40 countries except Russia. Earlier in February, Zelenskyy visited the prince to endorse his peace plan and discuss a potential exchange of prisoners of war.
On 13 June, The Guardian published analytical research on the climate cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The study showed that the first two years of the war emitted more annual greenhouse gas than the emissions generated individually by 175 countries. According to the report, 175 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) were generated. A new report by the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War (IGGAW) and the UN General Assembly claimed that Russia owed USD 32 billion as a climate reparations bill in the two years of war. The majority of warfare emissions come in three parts including military activity, with Russian troops using fuel accounting for 35mt CO2, the single greatest source of greenhouse gases. Other sources include manufacturing carbon-intensive explosives, ammunition, and defence walls, as well as fuel used by allies. One-third parts come from the reconstruction of damaged structures, with the carbon impact varying depending on the use of traditional or modern techniques. The final third is generated by fires, strikes on energy infrastructure, and displacement of nearly seven million Ukrainians and Russians. Over 40 per cent of Ukraine’s 4,216 fire trucks and one million hectares of scorched fields and forests due to military causes also added to the issue. Russia’s targeting of the energy infrastructure like the destruction of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines generated major leaks of potent greenhouse gases.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 12 June, CNA reported on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressing his view on Russia as “an invisible comrade-in-arms,” that in a message to Vladimir Putin, Russian President. This comes as Putin is expected to visit North Korea between 19 and 20 June. Russia government has expressed willingness to foster cooperation with North Korea in all areas. In September 2023, Kim travelled to Russia's Far East where Putin promised to help him build satellites. Following this, the US and South Korea accused Kim of shipping weapons and supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine in exchange for technological aid with its own nuclear and missile programs.
On 13 June, the Bank of Russia (CBR) YUAN will be the new benchmark for other currencies including EURO AND USD for the Moscow Exchanges (MOEX). This has come after US sanctions that prompted the MOEX to suspend trading with the USD AND EURO. But the over-the-counter market will continue. The Bank of Russia also said: "The yuan/ruble exchange rate … will become a reference point for market participants. The share of the yuan in Moscow Exchange trading in May was 54%...Thus, the yuan has already become the main currency in exchange trading.” According to the regulators the share for USD and EURO has declined due to the war, and western sanctions and also since more trade happens with the East so there we could see an increase in CNY and other friendly countries' currency. Putin also addressed this issue last week at the session at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum that the shares of payment for Russian exports in those unfriendly countries' currencies have been decreased to half. According to MOEX, the suspension of trading in dollar and euro affects foreign and precious metals trade as well as stock and money trading on Russia’s public trading markets. Except for dollars and euros, all other financial instruments remain operational. The derivatives market has also been unaffected by these changes, with trade going on as usual.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses of the US and Europe
On 13 June, according to The Washington Post, the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke about plans ahead of the G7 meeting in Italy, to sign a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine, that commits to a wide range of military assistance for a long term. Hoping to work beyond political divisions within the US, the deal seeks to bind upcoming US administrations to support Ukraine, even if Donald Trump wins the November election. However, since it is not a treaty or ratified by Congress, it could be withdrawn in the future. The agreement comes after months of negotiations, which was then put on hold during delaying approval of new funding in the Congress until April 2024. The pact does not commit Washington to provide troops for Ukraine's defence, unlike NATO's one-for-all agreements. However, it commits the US to hold high-level consultations with Kyiv within 24 hours if Ukraine is attacked again, and promises to work with Congress to implement security agreements.
On 13 June, Deutsche Welle reported that the NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg claimed that they were finding ways to counter Russian attempts at sabotaging the alliance. His statement came after Poland, Germany, the UK and the Czech Republic reported incidents of Russian interference in the form of arson, cyber attacks and disinformation in recent weeks. Andris Sprids, the Latvian Defense Minister said: "Latvia, of course, is in the front line and we have been facing hybrid attacks for some time, cyber-attacks, the weaponization of illegal migration." Earlier in May 2024, Poland detained a man suspected of acquiring images of Ukrainian military vehicles and also accused three men of arson on Russian intelligence orders. German construction workers found explosives near a NATO pipeline, suggesting Russia is open to such sabotage. NATO officials suggested that Russia uses disruption to pressure Ukraine to halt weapons supplies, but Stoltenberg has promised to continue supporting Ukraine despite Russia's actions. NATO plans to implement tighter restrictions on Russian intelligence personnel across the alliance, strengthen closer intelligence sharing, and strengthen the protection of vital infrastructure in the upcoming two-day meeting of Defence Ministers in Brussels.
References
“NATO to confront Russian 'sabotage' attempts — Stoltenberg”, Deutsche Welle, 13 June 2024
“Zelensky lands in Saudi Arabia for unannounced visit”, France 24, 12 June 2024
Nina Lakhani, “Russia’s war with Ukraine accelerating global climate emergency, report shows”, The Guardian, 13 June 2024
“New US sanctions force end of dollar and euro trading on Russia’s main exchange”, CNN, 13 June 2024
“US using Ukraine conflict as a pretext for sanctions – China,” Russia Today, 13 June 2024
“Ukraine confirms deep strikes into Russia with Western weapons,” Russia Today, 13 June 2024
“US sends submarine to Cuba after Russian ships arrive,” Russia today, 13 June 2024
Yuan to replace dollar as Russia’s main foreign currency – Central Bank,” Russia today, 13 June 2024
Ellen Nakashima and Michael Birnbaum. “Biden, Zelensky to sign 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security deal at G-7 summit”, The Washington Post, 13 June 2024