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By Neha Tresa George and Padmashree Anandhan
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 07 August, Sumy City in Ukraine experienced explosions after warnings from air defence systems. Oleksiy Drozdenko, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration reported on the explosions following the air raid alert. Sumy’s military administration ordered for mandatory evacuation of 6000 civilians from 23 settlements of five communities in the district, namely Krasnopillia, Mykolaivka, Myropillia, Yunakivka and Khotin which were in the range of enemy fire. Volodymyr Artyukh, head of the Sumy region said that the situation in the district remained tense but under the control for the armed forces.
On 07 August, Ukrinform reported on warnings to Russia by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate. According to him, Russia would be forced to either end the war or announce a large-scale mobilisation by 2025. He added that problems with human resource management began in Russia three months ago. He stated the personnel shortage faced by the Russian army recently and the subsequent decrease in the flow of volunteer fighters. He believed that Russia was trying to rectify the situation through a mobilisation plan.
On 07 August, Ukrinform reported on transferring Russian air defence systems to the Taman Peninsula, an area closer to the bridge across the Kerch strait that connects Crimea to Russia, citing a report by the ATESH partisan movement. The report said that two Buk-M2 and S-400 air defence systems were accompanied by military vehicles and two URALs carrying personnel.
On 07 August, Ukrinform reported on the intense shelling attacks by the Russian forces in the areas of Kharkiv and the military’s increased presence in Vovchansk. According to the Kharkiv Operational Tactical Grouping, 517 shelling attacks on the positions of Ukraine's defenders were recorded. They also noted the increased usage of artillery, mortars and multiple-launch rocket systems by the Russian army. Ukraine’s Intelligence reported on the increasing military presence, preparatory activities, forces and equipment from the Russian side in the Vovchansk region.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 07 August, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President condemned Ukraine’s incursion in the Kursk region. According to him: “Ukrainian forces are conducting indiscriminate fire from various types of weapons, including rocket weapons, at civilian buildings, homes, ambulances.” He promised supplementary support to the region amidst the emergency. Aleksey Smirnov, the acting governor of the region, was constantly in touch with Putin. He confirmed the deployment of a medical team to treat injuries caused by the Ukrainian fire. He also stated the increase in support for Kursk emergency services. According to him, more than 2,000 people have fled the border areas since the attack.
On 07 August, Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff reported that the Russian forces halting Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region. He estimated that Kyiv’s forces had suffered 315 casualties during the attempted incursion, with at least 100 troops killed and 215 wounded. He also added on the loss of four armoured vehicles including seven tanks from the Ukrainian side. According to his statements, Russia’s counteroffensive would either destroy or push back the Ukrainian forces beyond the border.
On 07 August, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation in its military update estimated the loss of around 260 troops and 50 pieces of heavy weaponry by Ukrainian forces in its recent incursion into the Kursk region. The attack which was launched two days ago had resulted in casualties in the Russian town of Sudzha. The report also stated Ukraine’s failure in entering Russian territory. They were counterattacked by airstrikes, rocket and artillery fire and Russian manoeuvres according to the report. The listed destroyed weapons were seven tanks, eight armoured personnel carriers, multiple infantry fighting vehicles, two Western-donated Stryker IFVs and two Buk surface-to-air missile launchers.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from Europe and the US
On 07 August, the BBC reported on the reasons behind Ukraine's launching of a cross-border attack into the Kursk region of Russia. According to the report, Ukraine’s biggest battlefield problem was manpower while Russia comparatively has and is closer to Pokrovsk, eastern Ukrainian town. Therefore, sending many soldiers to the border can be counterintuitive. One of the military analysts, Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, agrees that the attack should not be “accidental” but part of a “plan.” He said: “If you look at official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area… That means the aircraft which carry them are now elsewhere in Russia.” The attack into Kursk is also seen as a suppressive move against the Russian offensive in north-eastern Kharkiv and northern Sumy. However, this will be the first time Ukrainian forces breached the border but Russia was observed to be quick in responding through the state of emergency, swift evacuation and redeployment of troops in Sudza, a town in Kursk. Zelenskyy in his previous address said: “The more pressure is exerted on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine… Just peace through just force.”
On 07 August, the BBC reported that Nigeria severed its diplomatic ties with Ukraine. According to Niger’s military government, it was in “solidarity” with Mali, which cut its ties with Ukraine two days ago. Both the countries had cited the comments of Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence who commented on the killing of dozens of Malian soldiers last month. Although he did not elaborate, his statements suggested Kyiv’s role in the attack. As a response, the governments of Mali and Nigeria cut off their relations with Ukraine. This was viewed as a major blow to Ukraine’s attempt to win over the support of West African states during its war with Russia.
THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
Implications of the War
On 07 August, Svetlana Grinchuk, Deputy Energy Minister of Ukraine met with representatives of the Chamber of Deputies of the National Congress of Brazil. The visit was the first since 2012. The Brazilian side extended their support to Ukraine for their integrity and peace. Followed by the Energy minister’s briefing on the energy infrastructures and the current situation, the role of international support in restoring the energy facilities lost due to the war was discussed. They further discussed the prospects of energy development and support funds for Ukraine. The work of nuclear generation also came to the limelight and the parties discussed the safety of the operation of Ukrainian-controlled nuclear power plants and Ukraine’s resumed control of Zaporizhzhia plant, a Russian-occupied largest power plant in Europe.
References
“Explosions heard in Sumy, air defense activated,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2024
“Ukraine orders mandatory evacuation from 23 settlements in Sumy region,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2024
“Kremlin will be forced to announce large-scale mobilization in 2025 or end war – Budanov,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2024
“Russians moving air defense systems closer to Crimea bridge,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2024
“Russian army concentrates forces and equipment in Vovchansk area – military,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2024
“Putin comments on Kursk Region incursion attempt,” RT, 07 August 2024
“Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk Region halted – Moscow,” RT, 07 August 2024
“Russian military issues update on border fighting,” RT, 07 August 2024
“Niger's junta cuts diplomatic ties with Ukraine,”BBC, 07 August 2024
“Ukraine's energy security – an integral part of global energy security: a meeting with members of the Brazilian parliament,” Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, 07 August 2024
James Waterhouse, “Why has Ukraine launched a cross-border attack on Russia?,” BBC, 07 August 2024
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