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By Neha Tresa George
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 14 November, Swissinfo.ch reported on the mounting pressure on the northeastern front of Ukraine following an alleged Russian incursion into the Kupiansk region. Although the Russians were reported to be repelled, military analysts point out the “confusion and weakness” of Ukrainian defences in the area. They also noted that Russians could respond by stepping up their assaults around the region. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst said that Russia would likely repel Ukrainians from the Kursk region by the beginning of 2025. This was because both countries would be attempting to improve their territorial gains as Trump has promised to end the war. Kovalenko added that Russia would step up its operations on the southeastern front including the Zaporizhzhia and eastern Donetsk regions. Ukraine’s military also confirmed Russian assaults around these areas.
On 14 November, Ukrinform reported on the Russian attack from the Black Sea area. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, several Shahed drones were approaching Odesa, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, and Pivdenne in the Odesa region. In addition, several kamikaze drones were reportedly heading towards the Mykolaiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force also spotted a new group of Shahed drones over the Odesa region later that night.
On 14 November, Ukrinform reported on the situation in the Kupiansk region of Ukraine, as presented by Captain Andrii Kovaliov, the spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, the Russian army failed to enter the Kupiansk leaving the region under Ukrainian control. He said: “All attacks by the Russian occupiers in this sector were successfully repelled.” He further elaborated on the alleged Russian incursion into the region. They were reported to have attacked by launching 15 pieces of military hardware, tanks, armored combat vehicles and a UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle. He also said that some of them were wearing Ukrainian army uniforms and condemned it to be a “violation of the laws of warfare.” He added that the Ukrainian army responded “decisively” and pushed back the Russians causing losses to them. He confirmed that all the advances were repelled successfully with no further attempts.
On 14 November, The Kyiv Independent reported on the statements of the Russian ambassador to the UN, Gennady Gatilov. According to him, Trump’s victory in the US elections would open the chances for a possible dialogue between the countries. He added that the change in government would not bring a huge change in the future relations between the US and Russia. He also accepted Trump’s bid to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict overnight.
On 14 November, The Kyiv Independent reported on the Russian drone and missile in the Odesa region. It had led to the death of one and injured 10 others. According to the Governor of the Odesa region, Oleh Kiper, the attack damaged apartments, a church, educational institutions and vehicles. The missile also hit one of Odesa’s main heating pipelines causing it to shut down. The Ukrainian officials informed that repairs were underway.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 14 November, an opinion in RT reported on Russia’s advances in the Kursk region. To Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk, Russian forces responded swiftly with a “brief but intense battle.” The western flank of the Kursk “bulge” was guarded by Russian naval infantry and they managed to push back the Ukrainian forces. The opinion states that Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk backfired its primary goal, which was to force Russia to withdraw its troops from Donbass region. While the battle in the Kursk intensified, the Russian army captured areas in southern Donbass including the Ugledar city. Meanwhile, Russia’s primary goal in this operation was to retain the Sudzha region and the rest of the area from Ukrainian control. The opinion also reported on the loss and damage suffered by the Ukrainian personnel. It added that Russia was also facing personnel shortages and a lack of workers in its economy.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 14 November, the European Commission approved the second regular payment of close to EUR 4.1 billion to assist Ukraine’s macro-financial stability and its public administration. If the decision is implemented, EUR 16.1 billion funds will be disbursed under the EU’s Ukraine Facility in 2024. The Commission has assessed Ukraine to have fulfilled nine agreed reform indicators. These include the fight against corruption, business environment, labour market, regional policy, energy market and environmental protection. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Today's positive assessment by the Commission of Ukraine's €4.1 billion payment request is further proof both of Europe's steadfast commitment to Ukraine.” The transfer to Ukraine would depend upon the European Council’s decision to approve the assessment of the Commission.
On 14 November, the US Department of Defence confirmed that US President Joe Biden’s plan to fasten the security assistance to Ukraine would be ensured. This means that around USD 5.5 billion will have to be moved from the US military inventory to Ukraine before 20 January 2025, when the upcoming President will assume his office. Although this seems heavy, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh has noted that the Defence Department was capable of moving things quickly. She said: “I expect that for the next coming months of this administration, you're going to continue to see those packages draw down from ... what's available in our stockpiles.” She also said that the department kept track of the transfer of equipment to ensure its readiness. She added that they were committed to ensuring Ukraine’s success on the battlefield.
On 13 November, the New York Times cited the statements of Ukrainian officials concerned over security rather than territorial gains. A senior Ukrainian official said: “The territorial question is extremely important, but it’s still the second question. The first question is security guarantees.” It was assumed that Ukrainians were emphasizing “putting assurances in place to make a cease-fire hold” since the upcoming US President Donald Trump would push for an end to the conflict. Another Ukrainian official said that Ukraine would agree to a deal where Russia would retain control over the disputed areas and it would in turn gain entry into NATO.
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