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By Padmashree Anandhan
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 19 November, a senior Ukrainian official confirmed on Ukrainian military use of the US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to target Bryansk in Russia. The same was confirmed in the report by Forbes. However, Zelenskyy did not confirm upfront but assured on using the missiles full-fledged.
On 19 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine might have to accept the Russian occupation as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin leads Russia. In his address in the Ukrainian parliament marking 1000 days of the war, Zelenskyy said, “Perhaps Ukraine needs to outlive someone in Moscow to achieve its goals and restore the entire national territory.” He also outlined Ukraine’s “resilience plan,” calling for everyone to be united as the war nears a critical point. He stressed that Ukraine would not “give up its right to territories or trade its sovereignty.” He also confirmed on Ukraine’s plan to produce 30,000 long-range drones in 2025 to reduce the gap in Ukraine’s strike capabilities.To date, Ukraine has managed to defend Russian advances in several areas despite not receiving the promised aid from the West for its offensive. Currently, Russian forces occupy 18 per cent of Ukrainian territory and with the US Presidency about to switch to Donald Trump there are larger debates on freezing the Ukraine conflict.
On 19 November, the International Monetary Fund reached a deal of USD 1.1 billion loan for Ukraine. This will be later decided by the executive board. Once approved, the full amount will be sent to Ukraine totalling USD 9.8 billion. In a statement by the IMF: “The outlook remains exceptionally uncertain, and Russia's war in Ukraine continues to take a heavy toll on Ukraine's people, economy, and infrastructure.” However, the IMF four-year programme will be more than USD 15 billion to aid Ukraine ahead of Trump’s presidency.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 19 November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS missiles would be a “new phase of the Western war.” During the press conference at the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia. And we will react accordingly.” The move was seen as a clear signal of conflict escalation and added that without help from the US, Ukraine will not have access to high-tech missiles. On the nuclear doctrine, he added that lowering the threshold for the nuclear strike will be observed closely however Russia will try to avoid a nuclear war outbreak and use of nuclear weapons to the maximum extent.
On 19 November, the Russian Defence Ministry reported on Ukraine firing six US-supplied ATACMS missiles at Bryansk Oblast in Russia. According to the ministry, the Russian military destroyed five and damaged another however the debris from the blast had caused only fire. No damage or casualties were reported. On the same day, it also claimed to capture a village in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region near Kurakhove, the settlement of Novoselydivka. This comes after continued advances by the Russian military in Donetsk where Kurakhove serves as an industrial town.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 November, in the G20 summit press conference, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, stressed on Russian President Vladimir Putin to “listen to reason.” He stated that Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council has responsibilities and criticised saying it was becoming “a force for global destabilization.” The comment comes in response to Russia’s relaxation of its nuclear doctrine. On the same day, the US, the EU and the UK condemned Russia’s nuclear threats as “irresponsible” as it modified the nuclear doctrine. This was in response to the US’s decision to allow Ukraine to launch ATACMS missiles further into Russia. In a statement, the US National Security Council said: “We were not surprised by Russia's announcement that it would update its nuclear doctrine.” The council said that Moscow had signalled several weeks before on updating the doctrine. Whereas EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell said: “…any call for nuclear warfare is an irresponsibility.” UK’s Prime Minister Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “…not going to deter our support for Ukraine. We need to ensure that Ukraine has what is needed for as long as it's needed to win this war.”
References
“Macron urges Putin to 'listen to reason' on Ukraine as Biden approves antipersonnel landmines,” Le Monde, 19 November 2024
“IMF and Ukrainian Authorities Reach Staff Level Agreement on the Sixth Review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement,” imf.org, 19 November 2024
Maia Davis, “Ukraine fires US-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia, Moscow says,” BBC, 19 November 2024
“Russia Says Ukraine’s ATACMS Strikes Mark ’New Phase’ of War,” Kyiv Post, 20 November 2024
David Brennan and Patrick Reevell, “Russia claims it shot down US-made ATACMS missiles and issues nuclear threat,” ABC News, 20 November 2024
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy Presented Ukraine's Internal Resilience Plan,” President.gov.ua 19 November 2024
“UK sanctions perpetrators of Russia’s forced deportation and brainwashing of Ukrainian children on 1000th day of full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” UK.GOV, 19 November 2024
“Russia claims it took control of another settlement in eastern Ukraine,” Anadolu Agency, 18 November 2024
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