Photo : A gas metering station of Gazprom in Kursk. Source: Efrem Lukatsky/Associated Press
Photo : A gas metering station of Gazprom in Kursk. Source: Efrem Lukatsky/Associated Press
By Neha Tresa George
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 02 January, Ukrainska Pravda cited YouGov poll conducted in December 2024, with a total participation of 2194 people from across Germany. It showed that around 54 per cent of German residents agreed on sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, in case of a ceasefire. While 19 per cent of were against it, 25 per cent abstained from answering the question. However, only 23 per cent of these respondents favoured Germany’s participation in this mission as 33 per cent were against it. This was against the backdrop of the meeting held in Brussels between the EU and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They discussed the prospects of sending peacekeeping missions to Ukraine to minimise Russia’s attacks.
On 02 January, The Moscow Times reported on the Russian attack in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. According to the local authorities, the attack had led to the death of one person. Russian forces are trying to capture the entire frontline region, which they claimed to have seized in 2022. Zaporizhzhia region Governor Ivan Federov also informed about the damage to a five-story building. Apart from this, Russia also used 11 aerial guided bombs on the village of Stepnogorsk, near the frontline.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 01 January, Alaribiya News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had called for cooperation with China in artificial intelligence. He ordered Russia’s government and the pioneer of Russia’s AI efforts Sberbank to collaborate with them. He urged them to “ensure further co-operation with the People’s Republic of China in technological research and development in the field of artificial intelligence.” This announcement came after Putin confirmed Russia’s new alliance, also known as the “AI Alliance Network” with BRICS and other countries, to develop AI. The move was in response to the increasing western sanctions that undermined Russia’s access to the technologies to strengthen its war. The major microchip producers stopped exports to Russia, blocking its AI development. Now, Russia is behind the US, China and BRICS members such as Brazil and India in terms of AI technologies and innovations.
On 02 January, RT reported that Ukraine’s decision to end the transit deal with Russia would increase prices for liquified natural gas (LNG) as there would be more competition between alternative sources in Europe and Asia. According to Scott Darling, a managing director at Haitong International Securities: “Supply, particularly for LNG, is tight, and we see more upside risk to spot LNG prices this year and next.” With the transit deal coming to an end, European countries like Moldova, Romania, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia are seen bearing the consequences. They have to resort to alternative sources as they used to depend heavily on Russian gas imports.
On 01 January, RT reported on the statements of Slovakia’s MEP Katarina Roth-Nevedyalova on her country’s readiness to hold peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. She expressed a positive view on Russia’s “pursuit of peace.” She said: “I see it as a positive sign... Russia’s readiness to cease fire, start talks, and seek a path towards peace.” According to her, the EU should have played the role of a mediator from the beginning. Earlier, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico had held talks with Putin, offering the country to host negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Putin also welcomed the decision saying: “We are not against it.” Roth-Nevedyalova highlighted this, ensuring Slovakia’s interest in contributing to peace processes and a possible ceasefire.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 01 January, The New York Times reported on the end of transit deal between Ukraine and Russia. This pipeline was the largest and Russia’s last corridor which carried Siberian gas to Europe. Ukraine refused to renew the deal amidst its war with Russia. Ukraine’s energy minister Herman Galushchenko hailed it a “historic event.” Although it could reduce Russia’s gas revenues, it also imposes threats on Ukrainian pipelines as it will now become vulnerable to Russian attacks. Although EU countries like Slovakia and Austria attempted to push for another agreement to renew the deal, most of them had predicted the situation and taken necessary precautions. The most vulnerable was Moldova, which has proclaimed an emergency in the region following the halt of fuel imports.
On 01 January, the breakaway region of Moldova, Transnistria halted the households' heating and hot water supplies in view of the end of the transit deal between Ukraine and Russia. However, hospitals were exempt from this list. Transnistria is a pro-Russian region that broke away from Moldova after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. It stations around 1,500 Russian troops and resides peacefully beside Moldova. The authorities of the energy company of the region Tirasteploenergo advised citizens to dress up in warm clothes, sit together in a single room, hang thick blankets or curtains over windows and use electric heaters. The company also banned the usage of gas or electric stoves to heat the apartment as it was dangerous. The local parliament of Transnistria had sent an appeal to the Kremlin last month, requesting to enter into a new agreement with Ukraine. Moscow had responded ensuring the region’s protection. In the current scenario, Moldova condemns Russia for taking advantage of its energy dependence and destabilising the country, which the latter refuses.
On 02 January, Politico reported on Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico’s efforts to sustain the transit deal between Ukraine and Russia and the projected effects it could have on the country. In his bid to continue the deal, he was constantly in diplomatic talks with Brussels and the EU. Despite his efforts, the deal came to an end on 01 January 2025. However, there haven’t been any shortages or price rises as predicted. According to statistics from “Gas Infrastructure Europe,” Slovakia has more than three-quarters full reserves with Hungary at 68 per cent. Other countries likely to be impacted such as Austria and Czechia have also enough reserves. According to an energy expert in Slovakia, the countries would not face a supply crisis, even without alternatives. Further, GLOBSEC economist Vladimír Vaňo believes that Slovakia was well prepared for this scenario as it predicted this since the war began in 2022. One of the consequences it would face is the end to gas transit fees as Slovakia used to transport Russian fuels to its neighboring countries. The analysts point out that the country’s state-owned energy firm SPP was set to tens of millions of euros as transit fees. Slovakia’s MEP Roth Neveďalová also cited this issue, pointing out that transit fee was a major part of the state budget. Therefore, Fico’s attempts to secure this profit would result in differences with other EU countries.
References
“Russian Attack on Southern Ukraine Kills 1,” The Moscow Times, 02 January 2025
“Majority of Germans support deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine – poll,” Ukrainska Pravda, 02 January 2025
“Breakaway Moldovan region cuts heating and hot water after Russia stops gas flow,” CNN WORLD, 01 January 2025
“Putin orders Russian government and Sberbank to develop AI cooperation with China,” ALARABIYA NEWS, 03 January 2025
“Ukrainian move will push up Asian LNG price – Bloomberg,” RT, 02 January 2025
“MEP claims Russia ready for peace talks,” RT, 02 January 2025
“Fico’s Russian gas fearmongering falls flat,” Politico, 02 January 2025
“Ukraine Halts the Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe,” The New York Times¸01 January 2025