Photo : Ship in transit in the Black Sea. Source: AP Photo/Michael Shtekel
Photo : Ship in transit in the Black Sea. Source: AP Photo/Michael Shtekel
By Padmashre Anandhan
WAR ON GROUND
On 25 March, talks between the Ukraine and the US officials concluded after simultaneous negotiations between the US and Russia. According to a Ukrainian official, the talks had ended with no ceasefire announcement and the Kremlin stated that the details of discussion remain private. On the same day, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism on the partial ceasefire agreement. This includes, pause to naval warfare in the Black Sea and a temporary deferment of air strikes on energy infrastructure. However, he stressed that the next steps rely on Russia's actions. He stated that if air raid alerts resumed or military activity takes place, new measures would be required against Moscow. He reiterated Ukraine's lack of faith in Russia and also noted that the ongoing talks with Russian negotiators and US officials are significant first steps toward a “sustainable and fair” peace agreement.
On 25 March, a new set of talks are expected between Ukraine and US after the discussions with Moscow which is predicted to take place this week. Additionally, Ukraine agreeing to 30-day truce, which was rejected by Russia are currently looking at reviving the Black Sea Initiative, to facilitate supply of grain and other food products from Ukraine's ports. Meanwhile, a Russian missile strike was reported in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine, injuring close to 90, including 17 children.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 25 March, Russian government confirmed its participation in the US-brokered agreement intended to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. It announced that, alongside the agreement, Russia and the US had agreed to execute measures to stop strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a 30-day period which began on March 18. However, Russia predetermined that the Black Sea ceasefire would be implemented after sanctions were lifted on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other financial institutions. This is especially true with those institutions that are connected to the SWIFT international payment system.
On 25 March, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called on the US to initiate Ukraine to restore the Black Sea navigation deal. Lavrov highlighted Moscow's interest in a new agreement with fewer restrictions on Russian exports. He expressed Russia’s willingness to restart the Black Sea Initiative in more acceptable way and raised concerns being outside the grain and fertilizer markets. He stressed the possibility for the restoration of the deal to be only through an "order" from the US to Ukraine. Although Russian food and fertilizer exports are not directly affected by sanctions, Russia claims that the limitations over payments, logistics, and insurance had created major barrier to shipments.
On 25 March, one of the Russian negotiator, Grigory Karasin, stated the ongoing talks between Russia and the US on a partial ceasefire in Ukraine as "useful." In an interview with the state TASS, news agency, he described the talks as intense and challenging but observed it be beneficial for both. Karasin also stated Russia's desire especially in the UN, to engage in the talks moving forward.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 25 March, the US and Russian officials held talks for a partial ceasefire. This comes after separate discussions with Ukraine delegation. Despite an agreement to not strike at energy infrastructure, both have been observed to have continued the attacks complicating the path towards the 30-day full ceasefire. A major point of debate has been the definition of targets which are off-limits, as the White House calls for a broader coverage of "energy and infrastructure." However, the Kremlin lessened it to just "energy infrastructure." Zelenskyy has called for added protections for infrastructure such as railways and ports.
On 25 March, the White House announced that Russia and Ukraine have separately agreed to a ceasefire on military strikes against vessels in the Black Sea. This development follows lengthy talks in Saudi Arabia, which concluded on Tuesday with US involvement. Both countries issued parallel statements confirming their commitment to ensuring safe navigation, eliminating the use of force, and preventing the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov warned that any operation or activity of Russian warships outside the eastern part of the Black Sea would breach the US-mediated deal. In such a case, Umerov cautioned that Ukraine would self-defend.
On 25 March, the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania expressed concerns on the US approach during a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Latvia's Foreign Minister, Baiba Braze expressed the "skeptical" nature in Russia's intentions. She highlighted the intelligence assessments which showed Russia to be more focused on war than peace. On the same, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin did not “show signs of willingness to end the conflict.” He warned that Putin's main goal was not just a ceasefire, but to decrease “US influence in Europe,” making it difficult for European countries to oppose Moscow's influence over former Soviet territories. Tsahkna questioned how long US President Donald Trump would let Putin to "play games." The Baltic states, all EU and NATO members with a the Soviet past, remain concrete supporters of Ukraine and are among the highest defence spenders in relation to their GDP.