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CWA # 1607, 3 March 2025
NIAS Pakistan Reader
Trends in Terror attacks in February: More Civilian Casualties than Military, focused on Balochistan and KP

  Rohini Reenum

A review of the PICSS Report
On 3 March, Dawn reported on the latest report by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), an Islamabad-based think tank. The monthly report provides factual information on the number of terror attacks, their geographical distribution, resultant casualties (both civilian and military), and counter-terror operations in the country.

The casualties: Civilians, Security Forces and Militants
The latest PICSS report reveals that February 2025 witnessed a total of 79 (74 in the previous month) terror attacks and twice the number of civilian casualties compared to January. Civilian casualties in February were 55 (20 in January) reflecting a 175 per cent increase.

Since August 2024, February 2025 turned out to have witnessed more civilian deaths than security forces. The security forces casualties declined from 57 in January to 47 in February reflecting an 18 per cent decline. During February, the security forces neutralized 156 terrorists (9highest since December 2023 when 139 were killed) during counter-terrorism operations and arrested 66.

Terror attacks: The geographic concentration in Balochistan and KP
In February 2025, Balochistan has been the most affected province having witnessed 32 terrorist attacks, resulting in the death of 35 civilians, ten security personnel and 11 terrorists. The number of resulting injuries in the province also remained high, with a total of 44, including 12 civilians and 32 security personnel.

The ex-Fata region witnessed a total of 21 attacks, resulting in the death of eight civilians and 22 security personnel. In response, security forces neutralized 98 terrorists and arrested 50, the highest among all regions.

Sindh witnessed three “minor” attacks resulting in the killing of one security official and injuries to another.

Terror attacks: The perpetrators
In Balochistan, the main terror groups which claimed responsibility for the attacks in the region were-Bashir Zeb and Azad factions of the Balochistan Liberation Army, the Balochistan Liberation Front, and the United Baloch Army.

In the tribal regions of KP, the responsibility for most of these attacks was claimed by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).  Other groups that claimed responsibility for some attacks include- the Lashkar-i-Islam and factions of Gul Bahadur Group. In the remaining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), a total of 23 attacks took place, resulting in the death of 12 civilians and 14 security forces. 47 militants were killed in counter-terror operations. Most of these attacks were perpetrated by the TTP.

In Sindh, the Sindhu Desh Revolutionary Army took responsibility for one attack while the Gul Bahadur Group claimed another. The report highlighted that this the first time that the Gul Bahadur Group has claimed responsibility for an attack beyond KP.

Looking back at January 2025: Second highest number of militants killed since December 2016
In January, according to the PICSS report, there was a “sharp increase” of 42 per cent in terror attacks as compared to December 2024. January witnessed a total of 74 militant attacks which resulted in the killing of 35 security personnel, 20 civilians and 36 militants. The total number of injuries stood at 117. The month witnessed a spike in counter-terror operations which resulted in the elimination of 185 militants. This was the second highest number of militants killed in a single month since December 2016, with the highest being clocked in December 2024 when 190 militants were neutralized.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) emerged as the most affected province with “settled districts” and ex-Fata districts witnessing 27 and 19 attacks respectively. The total number of attacks in the region thus amounted to 46.This was followed by Balochistan which witnessed 24 attacks. Two attacks were reported from Punjab. Islamabad and Sindh witnessed one attack each. January also witnessed two suicide bombings with Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army claiming responsibility for one each. Additionally, the report also highlighted a surge in cases of kidnapping by the militants- with a total of 37. Most of these kidnappings were concentrated in southern KP. The month also witnessed the elimination of “67 militants in the tribal districts of KP (erstwhile Fata), 71 in its settled areas, and 47 in Balochistan.”

Trends from 2024: Highest number of militant and security personnel death since 2016
On 2 January 2025, a press release by the PICSS highlighted key statistics and data regarding terrorist attacks and casualties in the country. The total number of terror incidents stood at 905, resulting in 1,177 casualties (488 civilians, 461 security personnel and 225 militants) and 1,292 injuries (692 civilians, 589 security personnel and 11 militants). This data reflected a 40 per cent increase in militant attacks in 2024 as compared to 2023. The data also demonstrated a 21 per cent increase in casualties and a 5 per cent decrease in injuries resulting from militant attacks as compared to 2023.Civilian deaths accounted for 25 per cent of the total fatalities while militant and security personnel accounted for 48 per cent and 27 per cent of the total fatalities, respectively. In response, the security forces intensified counter-terror operations killing “792 individuals, comprising 725 militants, 66 security personnel, and one civilian.” A total of 171 people were injured in these operations and 223 alleged militants and their “handlers” were arrested. The report also highlighted that 725 militants were eliminated in 2024 as compared to 479 in 2023 which is a 51 per cent increase and reflects a “decisive shift in security forces’ tactics.” On the contrary, a decrease of 65 per cent in the number of arrests was observed in 2024 as opposed to 2023. Further, the report revealed that there was a decline in the number of suicide attacks from 29 in 2023 to 17 in 2024.

The responsibility for maximum number of attacks was claimed by the TTP. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed the second highest number of attacks. On the one hand, factions of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group were reportedly active in North Waziristan and its neighboring districts and on the other, the Lashkar-e-Islam was operational in Khyber. BLA, followed by the Baloch Liberation Front were the most active groups in Balochistan while Baloch Nationalist Army demonstrated “limited activity.” In Sindh, the Sindhu Desh Revolutionary Army carried out “low-intensity attacks.” Notably, a contraction was witnessed in the activities of Islamic State (DAESH). The report also highlighted a marked “shift” in the “strategy” of militants, where they made efforts “to hold territory temporarily in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.” The tactics ranged from conducting “night patrols” to mounting “temporary roadblocks.” The report also noted the surge in militant and security personnel casualties as being the highest since 2016 and 2014 in the year.

References
“February saw more civilians perish in terror attacks: report,” Dawn, 3 March 2025

“Terror attacks, security operations surged in January,” Dawn, 3 February 2025

“Pakistan Witnesses 40% Surge in Militant Attacks in 2024,” PICSS, 2 January 2025

About the author
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS.

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