Annual inflation for 2023-24 reached a “staggering” 23.41 per cent; ATC issues non-bailable warrant against Ali Amin Gandapur
In Focus
KP and Balochistan are epicentres of violence: Reports by two thinks tanks
Two think tanks- the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) and the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) released two reports separately on the security situation in Pakistan in different time periods in 2024. The CRSS, established in 2007 as an independent think tank, engages in "nonpartisan analysis, strategic communication, and empirical research." Click here for reports previously published by them. The PICSS similarly publishes reports on the conflict and security situation in Pakistan. In its reports, it also finds links between violence and other issues such as politics and external relations. Click here for reports previously published by them.
On 2 July, Dawn reported that as per data released by PICSS, there was a 20 per cent decline in militant attacks in June, leading to fewer deaths and injuries. 69 attacks carried out by militants in June resulted in 60 deaths and 65 people sustaining injuries. In comparison to May, there was a decrease in militant attacks (20 per cent), resultant deaths (33 per cent), and injuries (25 per cent). Further in June, TTP top commander Nasrullah was arrested. Provincially, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) remained the most affected, where militants carried out 27 attacks leading to 21 deaths and 18 injuries. There was a rising trend in kidnapping as five people were kidnapped by militants, while in tribal districts of the province, 28 attacks resulted in 30 deaths and 28 injuries. Balochistan followed KP, where 11 attacks resulted in six deaths and 14 injuries. Ten people were also kidnapped from the province, with three of them being released later. There was a 25 per cent decline in militant attacks in Balochistan, along with an 80 per cent decline in resultant deaths and 69 per cent decline in injuries in June. Separately, both Punjab and Sindh saw an improvement in security situation, as Punjab saw one militant attack resulting in one death, and Sindh saw two militant attacks resulting in two deaths.
In its May report, as per the provincial division of attacks, there were 31 attacks in KP leading to 37 deaths and 19 injuries, 23 attacks in Balochistan leading to 30 deaths and 45 injuries, four attacks in Punjab leading to six deaths and seven injuries, and four attacks in Sindh leading to two deaths and one injury.
Earlier, on 1 July, as per a report released by CRSS, 240 terror attacks and counter-terror operations resulted in 380 violence-linked fatalities and 220 injuries among civilians, security forces, and outlaws during the second quarter of 2024. Similar to the PICSS report, this report also noted that KP and Balochistan were the epicentres of violence, and accounted for roughly 92 per cent of all fatalities and 87 per cent of attacks. However, there was a fall in violence and casualty rates across Pakistan, with a 12 per cent reduction in overall violence from 432 in the first quarter to 380 in the second. Balochistan’s situation improved the most, as violence decreased by 46 per cent from 178 fatalities to 96. Punjab and KP on the other hand saw a surge in violence, with an increase of 13 and 31 fatalities respectively in comparison to the first quarter. Civilians, government officials, and security personnel suffered 62 per cent of all fatalities, while outlaws faced 38 per cent fatal losses, and police and army personnel were frequent targets. The CRSS report added that in Balochistan and KP, 24 workers were targeted due to their ethnic identities, and 11 people were killed as a result of sectarian violence.
(Ikram Junaidi, “Militant attacks down 20pc in June: PICSS data,” Dawn, 2 July 2024; Ikram Junaidi, “380 deaths in violent attacks in 3 months: CRSS report,” Dawn, 1 July 2024)
In Brief
POLITICS
Anti-Terrorism Court issues non-bailable warrant against Ali Amin Gandapur
On 1 July, the Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) dismissed the exemption pleas from attendance of Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and PTI leader Aamir Mughal and issued non-bailable warrants against the two. The case pertains to charges filed against Imran Khan and others at the Sangjani police station and I-9 police station. While hearing the case, Judge Sipra stated that not being in the city was “not a valid reason for absence” and that the onus of attendance lay with the accused. He further warned their absence on 8 July after which a day to day hearing is supposed to begin will result in the accused being declared “proclaimed offenders.” Additionally, the court also sought a response from the superintendent of Adiala Jail regarding the appearance of PTI founder Imran Khan via video link. (“Non-bailable arrest warrants issued for Gandapur,” The News International, 2 July 2024)
JUDICIARY
Election Commission of Pakistan not a subordinate institution, says CJP Isa
On 1 July, while hearing appeals filed by the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) pertaining to the non-allocation of reserved seats to women and non-Muslims, CJP Isa emphasized that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) was “not a subordinate institution to the Supreme Court or the government but an independent authority conferred with a constitutional role to conduct elections.” In this regard, the CJP stated “We may have differences with the conduct of the commission, but we will interfere only when ECP deviates from the Constitution and the law.” Further, the court stated that it could only “exercise its jurisdiction” over the ECP if it has grounds to believe that the latter has “gone beyond the constitution.” The SC also directed the ECP to base their calculations based on formula for reserved seats using the 2018 election results, both after excluding and including the independents. This is so that the bench can understand the difference between the two. Additionally, on the question of alleged rigging in 8 February elections, the SC noted that the court could not review “the conduct of the elections” unless a case comes to it from a lower court regarding the same as it only an appellate body. Separately, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUIF) agreed with ECP’s decision on non-allocation of reserved seats to the SIC and told the Supreme Court that the ECP was right in denying the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) reserved seats for women and minorities in the National and provincial assemblies. (Nasir Iqbal “CJP comes to ECP’s rescue on reserved seats,” Dawn, 2 July 2024; Sohail Khan, “ECP rightly denied SIC reserved seats, JUIF tells SC,” The News International, 2 July 2024)
ECONOMY
Annual inflation for 2023-24 reached a “staggering” 23.41 per cent
On 1 July, data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics revealed that the annual inflation for 2023-24 reached a “staggering” at 23.41 per cent. This also means that the recorded inflation “surpassed” the government’s budgetary target set at 21 per cent. The inflation remained high due to increase in prices electricity, gas, and essential kitchen items. The data also revealed that the average monthly inflation “fluctuated over the year.” The headline consumer inflation witnessed a fluctuation over the months: with 28.3 per cent in July 2023, 31.4 per cent in September and started to decline in January 2024. According to the Finance Ministry, the dip in recent months can be attributed to “coordinated policies, lower global commodity prices, improved food supply and the high base effect.” The Ministry also revealed that medium-term inflation is expected to “normalize in FY25 and FY26 due to improvements in the agriculture sector and anticipated favorable global and domestic conditions.” Declining inflation is the key reason that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the key interest rate by 150 basis points, “the first reduction in four years.”(Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Inflation remains elevated at 23.41pc,” Dawn, 2 July 2024)
T-bills continue to attract foreign investors
On 2 July, The News International reported that the State bank of Pakistan’s data reveals that Rupee-dominated T-bills continue to be attractive for foreign investors. According to SBP’s data, the bonds attracted a net investment of USD 57 million in June 2024 which has brought the total foreign investment in T-bills through Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRAs) to USD 444 million in the period July 2023 to 7 June, 2024. In May 2024 alone, the inflow amounted to USD 230 million which is the highest monthly inflow in four years. Macroeconomist Ammar Habib Khan explained the situation to The News “due to higher interest rates and the lower expected depreciation of PKR, there has been some movement of US dollars into Pakistan, with investors investing in our local treasury bills.” He further stated “basically means that we have a positive real interest rate, which is why dollars can find more returns here.” (“Foreign investment in T-bills hits $444m,” The News International, 2 July 2024)
Closing of Pakistan Steel Mills “about 20 years and several billion dollars too late,” argues an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 2 July, an editorial The Express Tribune argued that the decision to cut off utilities to the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) by the government has come “about 20 years and several billion dollars too late.” This is because even though the PSM has been non-functional since 2015, the laying off of the staff took several years and utilities kept being provided “to keep industrial equipment in working condition.” This has meant a loss of billions for the government. The editorial considers the recent decision to fully shut down the mill as a prudent one given the lack of interest in either privatizing the mill and alternative uses of the land by the federal and provincial governments. Further, proposals for a new mill at the site had also seen vehement opposition earlier and any effort to sell off the mills parts would prove to be “extremely cumbersome” and involve “a lot of due diligence because of the relatively high amount of foreign interest.” Thus, the editorial argues that handing over the PSM to the Sindh government which wants to use the land for “general industrial use, including an export processing zone” makes most sense “especially since the new occupants of the land could be convinced to take over the responsibility and cost of disposing of equipment, which would normally have been borne by the government.” (“Rust in peace, PSM,” The Express Tribune, 2 July 2024)
EXTERNAL
Digitized Pak-German Wood Working Centre inaugurated
On 1 July, Special Assistant to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister for Industries, Commerce and Technical Education, Abdul Karim Tordher inaugurated the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system at Pak-German Wood Working Centre. The Centre is a subsidiary of the Small Industries Development Board (SIDB). Others present at the occasion included the Managing Director of SIDB KP, Habibullah Arif, Deputy Managing Directors (DMDs), Nauman Fayyaz, Sahibzada Zulfikar and the Manager of Pak-German Wood Working Centre, including officers and staff. An official statement revealed that the “affairs” of the Centre had been digitized using the “latest software” and all information pertaining to the working of the Centre will now be available online. The digitization was undertaken in order to ensure “modernism and transparency in the performance of the centre as well as better planning of the resources, financial affairs, human resources, purchases and other matters of the organization.” (“Pak-German Centre digitized,” The News International, 2 July 2024)
AF-PAK
“Limited engagement with the Taliban” is the most feasible option, argues an editorial in Dawn
On 2 July, an editorial in Dawn titled “Limited choices” delineated the “limited choices before the international community” pertaining to their possible engagement with the Afghan Taliban regime and argued that none of these choices are “good ones.” The editorial further highlighted the dilemma of the international community stating that given the human rights record of the regime and its adverse treatment of women and their rights, it is not “advisable for foreign countries to fully embrace the Taliban” without securing guarantees. However, isolating the Afghan Taliban is also not a prudent option as it would mean leaving millions of Afghans, especially its women at the mercy of the regime. In the past, isolating the Taliban had resulted in its moving even closer to Al Qaeda. The editorial argues that “the most feasible course” then is a “limited engagement with the Taliban,” while simultaneously pressuring them change their stance towards women. The full international recognition of the regime should also be made contingent upon their lifting their “stringent curbs on women’s freedom.” The recent decision to involve Taliban representatives in UN-backed discussions in Doha about “the future of Afghanistan” seems to reflect this sentiment. (“Limited choices,” Dawn, 2 July 2024)
INDIA VIEW
India and Pakistan exchange list of prisoners
On 2 July, India and Pakistan, through a diplomatic channel, exchanged lists of prisoners that each have in their custody. According to a press release by the Foreign Office, these lists are exchanged every year on 1 January and 1 July every year in accordance with the Consular Access Agreement of 2008. The list shared by Pakistan revealed that there are “254 Indian or believed-to-be-Indian civilian prisoners and fishermen in Pakistani jails.” The list shared by India revealed that there are “452 Pakistani or believed-to-be-Pakistani civilian prisoners and fishermen in Indian jails.” Further, a list containing 38 Pakistani defence personnel who are missing and thought to be in Indian custody since the wars of 1965 and 1971was also shared by India. Pakistan has called for “immediate release and repatriation of all Pakistani prisoners” that have served and finished their sentences in India. It has also sought consular access to those physically and mentally challenged in India custody believed to be Pakistani nationals in order to ascertain their nationality. Pakistan has “urged” India to ensure “the safety, security, and well-being of all Pakistani or believed-to-be-Pakistani prisoners.” Due to the government’s efforts, 62 Pakistani prisoners were released in 2023 and 4 have been released in the current year so far. (“Pakistan, India exchange lists of prisoners”, The News International, 2 July 2024)
India’s win in T20 World Cup is a win by the “best team,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 2 July, an editorial in Dawn titled “India’s victory” reviewed India’s win the recently concluded T20 World Cup and argued that the “best team,” a team “that held its nerve best when the stakes were the highest” won. The editorial highlighted the best performances of the match: Virat Kohli’s batting, Jasprit Bumrah’s bowling and the most talked about catch by Suryakumar Yadav and argued that India had dominated the series consistently. The editorial also lauded that India “backed” both Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma despite their low strike rates and most importantly they kept “faith.”The editorial further argued that the India team looked well placed to win the Cup even without Kohli and Sharma and that the lesson from the tournament is “There is a need to constantly improve to be the best.” (“India’s victory,” Dawn, 2 July 2024)
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