MoF to keep lid on federal financing of development to meet IMF goals; “Taliban should take action against its both “good and bad” militants,” says an editorial in Dawn
In Brief
POLITICS
Imran Khan 'arrested' in dozens of 9 May cases by Lahore police
On 15 July, Dawn reported that as the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) secured an eight-day remand of Imran Khan in a new Toshakhana case, Lahore police also ‘arrested’ him in connection with multiple cases such as the attack on the Corps Commander House. As per sources, Khan will not be moved to Lahore for probing, due to security reasons, and will instead appear before an anti-terrorism court in Lahore through a video link. According to Deputy Inspector General Zeeshan Asghar, Khan was a prime suspect in 12 cases out of a total of 16 cases recorded by the Lahore police with regard to the 9 May attacks. Police officials said that of all the cases filed against Khan, they would be focusing on two in particular- the Askari tower case and the attacks on the residence of the Lahore corps commander. While the former case is being scrutinized by the Joint Investigation Team, led by Asghar, the latter will be looked into by police higher-ups. (Asif Chaudhry and Akram Junaidi, “Police ‘arrest’ Imran over several May 9 cases,” Dawn, 15 July 2024)
SIC rules out possibility of merger with the PTI
On 14 July, SIC Chairman MNA Sahibzada Hamid Raza told Dawn that following “consultation with the top PTI leadership, it has been decided that the SIC will continue representing itself as the SIC in the NA and the KP Assembly.” The party will have two seats each after the Supreme Court’s (SC) verdict on reserved seats, which allowed the PTI to return to parliament and provincial assemblies. A merger of both parties was ruled out by the SIC in anticipation of “political requirements” in the future. Raza emphasized: “Even after the Supreme Court’s decision he was conveyed to keep the 41 MNAs’ seats. But from day one I have made it clear that these seats are of Imran Khan’s and should go to the PTI.” Earlier on 12 July, the PTI was declared eligible by the SC to receive reserved seats for women and minorities in both national and provincial assemblies. Raza spoke on a potential merger of the parties, and said “mergers of political parties take place in normal times, these are extraordinary times and to anticipate any future situation about the merger of PTI and SIC is not possible at the moment.” PTI spokesperson Raoof Hasan noted that his party is “extremely thankful to the SIC chief for standing with the party in such a testing time.” He detailed that Raza would represent the SIC in the National Assembly, while 39 of the remaining SIC MNAs would return to the PTI. (Zulqernain Tahir, “Situationer: SIC, PTI to walk divergent paths,” Dawn, 15 July 2024)
“The ECP has lost the public’s trust,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 15 July, an editorial in Dawn titled ‘‘Complete’ justice’ discussed the “issues about the general election.” The article stated that the foremost among all is the question of “how quickly and fairly the dozens of petitions pending before election tribunals can be resolved.” It went on to discuss the Supreme Court’s verdict on the reserved seats case and mentioned that the “ECP acted unlawfully by disbarring the PTI from contesting the 8 February election.” Further, it questioned the role of the ECP in ensuring that the election tribunals dispensed justice fairly and promptly. The article also criticized the ECP’s decision to appoint retired judges to oversee such cases in the tribunal. The editorial claimed that “the ECP has lost the public’s trust.” The second question discussed was on the Senate elections, where the reserved seats of PTI were given to other parties. The editorial pointed out that this action affected the outcome of the senate elections. It argued that: “If the ECP’s illegal and unconstitutional decisions thwarted the public will and distorted the mandate given to each party by the people, then, for the sake of democracy, this injustice, too, must be undone.” The editorial also underlined that the process should begin from where the “ECP deviated from established rules and procedures.” (“‘Complete’ justice,” Dawn, 15 July 2024)
ECONOMY
Panellists link political stability to economy during ‘Great Debate’
On 14 July, during the Geo News exclusive Great Debate on the economy, experts stressed that “economic and political stability is the cornerstone for the country’s recovery from its downtrodden state of affairs.” The debate focussed on Pakistan’s economic challenges and a suggestion from various experts to guide Pakistan away from the economic turmoil. The Chief of Arif Habib Group, Arif Habib, stressed economic stability and criticized the political leadership for defaulting on necessary reforms, which led to “continued economic woes.” Habib talked about the rupee stabilization’s impact which led to a reduction in inflation, and urged the provinces to accept the tax on agriculture. He claimed this would provide relief to other sectors. Further, Habib raised concerns about the “excessive burden on salaried individuals and the challenges in tax collection from retailers.” He questioned the country’s foreign investment and its efficacy, urging the government to initiate more opportunities inside the country.
The Chairman of the All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), Asif Inam, discussed the energy sector and argued that 70 per cent of the economic problems came from the high electricity prices. He called on the projects under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) to address the electricity concerns. Similarly, the CEO of Topline Securities Ltd. Mohammad Sohail, highlighted that though the direction of the budget was correct, there were questions regarding the tax implementation. He noted there is a necessity for IMF and the goal of achieving five to six per cent economic growth to balance the increase in population. Sohail stressed political stability to nurture economic confidence and attract foreign investments. Apart from this, Amar Habib Khan, assistant professor of practice at the School of Business Studies, IBA, discussed the detrimental effect of a 29 per cent corporate tax on investment and underlined the need for agricultural and IT sector development. There was also a discussion on mining and construction aspects. (“‘Great Debate’: Pakistan’s recovery tied to political, economic stability,” The News International, 15 July 2024)
“At a time of economic uncertainty, the government’s new measures have put food security into question,” says an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 15 July, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled ‘Flour export ban’ described the government’s decision to ban the export of flour made from imported wheat as “another reactionary measure.” The decision was made amid a strike by the Pakistan Flour Mills Association (PFMA), which led to more than 1,800 flour mills shutting operations to protest tax measures that would “increase their burden” and also increase the prices. These measures, which have come at a “time of economic uncertainty,” have put “food security into question” since the lack of flour supply could have widespread consequences for a population already “frustrated and over-burdened with taxes.” The editorial argued that in a free market, it is the forces of demand and supply and not the government which should determine the price of a commodity. For a long time, the policy of minimum support price for wheat only benefitted the mill owners, middlemen, and bureaucracy, and also led to a lack of innovation in the agriculture industry since farmers “do not invest in new technology” as their incomes are guaranteed. While these policies need to be done away with to enable competitiveness, the government also needs to “improve upon reporting mechanisms at provincial agricultural departments and the federal food ministry so as to ensure food security all the time.” The editorial noted the need for “better policymaking” over “knee-jerk reactions” which will not benefit the common man or Pakistan in the long run.
“Pakistan’s potential for sustainable growth in agri-food exports hinges on its ability to generate a significant surplus,” contends opinion in Dawn
On 15 April, in an opinion in Dawn titled ‘The case for agriculture exports,’ Dr Waqar Ahmad and Khalid Saeed Wattoo said that while Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has committed to increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13 per cent within the next three years to secure a USD six billion IMF loan, a similar commitment was not given to the exports-to-GDP ratio. This ratio stands at 10.4 per cent, with many economists suggesting that an increase to 15 per cent could “potentially obviate the need for an IMF loan or external borrowing to address the balance of payments crisis.” Though Pakistan’s exports-to-GDP ratio was at 14.8 per cent in 1990, higher than that of China, India, and Bangladesh, these countries have “predominantly experienced export-led growth” in the last three decades. Meanwhile, Pakistan has failed to achieve similar growth due to “flawed economic policies and the misplaced priorities of successive governments.” The authors pointed out that during the Nawaz Sharif regime, imports became cheaper after the dollar exchange rate was artificially capped at PKR 100 for four years. Though this measure was to keep inflation in check, it “shook the very foundation” of the export sector, disrupted the value chains of exportable products, and led to a transition to a “consumption-based economy.” Currently, Pakistan is struggling to increase its exports while the manufacturing sector is feeling “incapacitated in maintaining its competitiveness in global markets due to a high policy rate of 20.5 per cent,” along with high electricity costs and frequently changing policies. Both authors stated that with the government withdrawing tax-related concessions for the manufacturing sector which has relied on government subsidies historically, manufacturers and exporters have said they would relocate to other countries. The opinion pointed out that agriculture and IT, which are “less capital-intensive,” can be relied upon for export growth. In the agriculture sector, exports are “commodity-based” and the use of high-yielding seeds along with other measures allow the sector to “produce additional volumes for import substitution” and create export surpluses. Thus, the opinion asserted that Pakistan’s “potential for sustainable growth in agri-food exports hinges on its ability to generate a significant export surplus.” (Dr Waqar Ahmad & Khalid Saeed Wattoo, “The case for agriculture exports,” Dawn, 15 July 2024)
Ministry of Finance to keep lid on federal financing of development to meet IMF goals
On 15 July, Dawn reported that despite protests from the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Finance will keep the lid on federal financing of development and recurrent expenditures through back-loaded releases of funds, with the aim of meeting IMF targets. In a set of fresh notifications, it was highlighted that the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives will authorize 15 per cent of funds for development projects in the first quarter, 20 per cent in the second, 25 per cent in the third, and 40 per cent in the fourth. Earlier, the PTI government had shortened the budget release process for speedy disbursements, implementing a mechanism that made half of the total annual allocations accessible to development projects in the first half. Before the PTI, 40 per cent of development funds would be released in the first six months, and the remaining 60 per cent in the second half of the fiscal year. A front-loaded disbursement mechanism had been set in place to encourage advance releases to executing agencies to appropriately utilize funds. Since the finance ministry would withhold sizeable funds on the grounds of “ways and means of clearance” to slow down development-related disbursements, projects faced delays. Continuous tensions between the finance and planning ministries caused the disbursement mechanism to change in 2022; however, in 2023, the policy was changed again by the finance ministry to ensure the primary cash surplus target was committed to the IMF. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Govt to keep lid on funds to meet IMF targets,” Dawn¸15 July 2024)
SECURITY
“The potential repercussions on privacy, civil liberties and democratic processes cannot be overlooked,” says an opinion in The Express Tribune
On 14 July, in an opinion in The Express Tribune titled ‘Questionable intent,’ Haroon Rashid Siddiqi discussed the recent Statutory Notification (SRO) by the federal government under Section 54 of the Pakistan Telecommunication Re-organization Act, 1996, allowing ISI to intercept calls and messages. He criticized the move as it raises concerns about “privacy, civil liberties and the potential abuse of power,” though it intended to boost the “national security framework.” Siddiqi claimed that the new law would lead to the “erosion of privacy rights” as the ability to tap telephone calls grants access to hear “personal conversations and sensitive information.” This would prompt insecurity among individuals who may feel “inhibited from speaking freely.” The author stressed that the new law can become “weaponized against political opponents, journalists, and activists,” and highlighted that in a country with a “precarious” balance of power, these laws could be easily used to “sway political outcomes.” He also observed that the new law poses a threat to press freedom in which, journalism by profession, “thrives on the ability to investigate and report freely.” Siddiqi projected that the new law would face legal and constitutional challenges, arguing that the “broad and vague nature” of the given surveillance powers to the ISI could be seen as a violation of Pakistan’s constitutional protections. The opinion further argued that though national security is “undeniably important,” there have to be “independent bodies, such as judicial or parliamentary committees” to review and regulate the use of those powers. (Haroon Rashid Siddiqi, “Questionable intent,” The Express Tribune, 14 July 2024)
AF-PAK
“Taliban should take action against its both “good and bad” militants,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 15 July, an editorial in Dawn titled ‘Afghan challenge’ discussed the UN monitoring team’s report on Afghanistan. While the Taliban has “managed to stabilize Afghanistan after decades of conflict,” under its rule, “terrorist groups are flourishing on Afghan soil.” The UN report stated the Taliban is a “transition from insurgency to governing authority.” In this regard, the editorial stated that due to the limited gains, there has been less competition and noted “if the Taliban seek full recognition from the international community, they need to do much more,” stressing the areas of women's rights, and enhancing governance structure. Regarding militancy, the UN report urged the global community to keep “eyes and ears open,” given that the banned TTP has become the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan and developed a relationship with Al Qaeda. The report also claimed that the Taliban rulers are “unable or unwilling” to tackle the TTP threat. The editorial argued that the Taliban should be told to contain militants by referring to “‘good’ militants who support them (TTP, Al Qaeda), and ‘bad’ militants who oppose them (IS-K).” (“Afghan challenge,” Dawn, 15 July 2024)
ENERGY
Electricity theft is a problem, but it’s not the sole cause of financial mess,” argues an opinion in Dawn
On 15 July, in an opinion in Dawn titled ‘Pakistan’s energy mass,’ Tehmina Asad and Afia Malik said that while energy is the “backbone of civilization and development,” Pakistan’s energy sector is facing a crisis in the form of a “complex web of perpetual circular debt, ill-conceived independent power producers (IPP) contracts, and outdated tariff design.” This situation has been worsened by factors including power outages and rising tariffs. “Decades of mismanagement, overcentralized, and misguided decision-making,” along with the “non-realization of past mistakes,” has caused consumers to face the brunt of “systemic failures.” Though the circular debt worth PKR 2.6 billion is often attributed to electricity theft, theft would not have been “possible without the connivance of the administrative staff.” Discos for their part blame the falling demand on the increasing shift to rooftop solar, while overlooking the impact of commercial load-shedding. The opinion argued that the “underutilization of expensive installed generation capacity for which capacity payments have to be made” is a significant contributor to the financial mess, along with a lack of long-term planning. Most decisions that have been taken were unplanned, while sector managers have continually failed to develop an energy policy which meets the population’s needs as the focus is more on “addition rather than on efficiency.” The tariff design is also a problem because while it allows for subsidies, the “consumer-end tariff is burdened with taxes and surcharges.” Both authors opined that the “governance structure within the power sector is responsible for the mess,” and asserted that the Ministry of Energy should not intervene in company affairs to help enhance accountability. (Tehmina Asad and Afia Malik, “Pakistan’s energy mass,” Dawn, 15 July 2024)
WORLDVIEW
“Era of neocolonialism is going to culminate in the form of new technological invasions,” says an opinion in The News International
On 15 July, an opinion by Hassan Baig in The News International titled ‘Colonial wars are back’ said the new colonial wars are between multinational companies and tech giants, which are shaping the current world. He described chips, semiconductors, Information Technology (IT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), tariffs and taxes, and supply chains as the new tools of war. Baig stated that this new race is at a peak to “colonize developing countries through the tools of the developed world.” He claimed that the era of neocolonialism would culminate in the form of a new technological invasion that would ultimately exploit third-world countries. The opinion detailed that the developed countries were attempting to rule over the developing countries, which is the reason behind “chip wars and the introduction of trade restrictions on EVs by the US/EU against China.” According to the author, Chip-empowered AI apps have gained the status of king in the technological world, and advanced countries like the US, Russia, China, and the EU are in a race to monopolize chip and semiconductor technologies. The “security paradigm” has shifted from military rule to economic prowess, with strategic arms programs connected to modern software technologies. The tactics and strategic approach of the US and EU and their allied developed countries vis-a-vis China and Russia are almost the same as they used to be in colonial wars. Baig claimed that only the tools of the war have been changed in the new world order and the “old colonial wars are back,” with new technological and tactical moves set to dominate the world. (“Colonial wars are back,” The News International, 15 July 2024)
INDIA VIEW
“China is the reason why Modi is able to defy the United States by remaining close to Russia,” notes an opinion in The Express Tribune
On 15 July, Shahid Javed Burki in an opinion in The Express Tribune titled ‘India, one part of the multipolar world’ said that the world has four poles- India, the US, China, and Russia- two of which are Pakistan’s neighbours. The fact that New Delhi is being “courted” by the US and Russia and is a “good counterpoint to the rising power of China” proves how India has become one of the four poles “around which the developing world order is being structured.” Burki noted how a few months ago, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was hosted by US President Joe Biden, and then later on 9 and 10 July, he was hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The second visit, which coincided with a meeting held by the heads of states of NATO countries, resulted in the US State Department stating: “We have made quite clear directly with India our concerns about their relationship with Russia.” The visit was also criticized by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said: “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s bloody criminal in Moscow.” Despite this, Modi is “able to defy the US by remaining close to Russia” because of China. During his meeting with Putin, Modi emphasized: “Any mention of Russia reminds every Indian of an ally that has been with us through good times and bad times, as a trusted friend of India.” He also brought up the “Ukrainian issue with Putin in a low-key manner,” saying that anyone who “believes in humanity is aggrieved at the loss of life in war or in terror attacks.” Moscow described relations with India as a “special and privileged relationship,” with Indian officials who accompanied Modi announcing their goal to expand the annual trade volume to USD 100 billion by 2030. Modi’s announcement of new consulates in Yekaterinburg and Kazan was “no good news for Pakistan where the security services believe that India uses its consular presence in Russia to create trouble in the restive province of Balochistan.” India is also talking to Russia about building six new nuclear power reactors in the country. Burki highlighted that one of Modi’s many objectives was to show Moscow that while New Delhi is receiving investments from the US, “it has not lost its autonomy.” (Shahid Javed Burki, “India, one part of the multipolar world,” The Express Tribune, 15 July 2024)
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This is the situation. Where did the slogans of real freedom and the American conspiracy go? It means Imran Khan himself is admitting that he did all this.
- Saad Kaiser
I am deeply saddened to hear of the passing of my chief media coordinator, DhokiNazir. A lifelong jiyala, he served the Peoples Party with diligence, loyalty, and unquestionable commitment. The Party is poorer for his loss. My thoughts and prayers go out to his family, colleagues, and friends. May we all find the strength to bear this monumental loss.
- BilawalBhuttoZardari
No matter who it is, the answerer will be promoted.
- Imran Bilal
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“Our jurisprudence is dictated by the male lived experience.”
-An opinion in Dawn, ‘Supreme injustice’
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