Pakistan issues “strong demarche” to Afghanistan over Bannu Cantonment attack; Sindh CM declines PPP’s support to ban any “political party”
In Brief
POLITICS
Sindh CM declines PPP’s support to ban any “political party”
On 17 July, Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah stressed that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has never supported “any move to ban a political party.” While addressing the media, CM Murad urged the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to “adhere to political norms” and stated: “The PTI will have to review its role if it is demonstrating political behavior or not.” His statement comes after the recent announcement by the government of its decision to ban the PTI for “alleged involvement in anti-state activities.” Further, the decision to ban the PTI has drawn criticism from various political actors including veteran PPP leaders Farhatullah Babar and Mian Raza Rabbani. Rabbani emphasized that banning political parties is against “norms of democracy” and urged the government to refrain from such moves. Babar described the idea of a treason case against a political leader as “absurd,” arguing that such decisions would further deepen the political crisis. In this regard, PPPP Secretary General Nayyar Hussain Bokhari said that these leaders merely expressed their opinions and assured that the PPP announced its position only through its spokesperson or relevant persons. (“PPP not in favour of ban on any party: CM Murad,” The News International, 17 July 2024)
A Fitch firm’s Risk report on Pakistan predicts Imran Khan’s continued incarceration and toppling of the PML-N led coalition
On 18 July, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company in its Pakistan Country Risk Report pertaining to the fourth quarter of the calendar year 2024, forecasted that Imran Khan is “unlikely to walk free anytime soon.” In this regard, BMI stated that “Despite several successful legal appeals, opposition leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future.” The report also claimed that the PM Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government may prove “house of cards” in the next one and half years. However, the report also noted that the current coalition government will succeed in IMF-mandated fiscal reforms and will continue to remain in power for the next 18 months. It further warned of possibilities for negative events that would affect growth, stating that, “odds of setbacks, slowdowns, or other adverse consequences are greater than the chances of improvements.” It further observed that the country’s “fragile political situation could also derail the recovery.” The risk assessment report warned that the risk may erupt from political instability and climatic conditions. Regarding the economic sector, the report projected an increase in growth from 2.4 per cent in FY2024-2025 to 3.2 per cent in FY 2024-2025. The Fitch firm added that “The key risk to this forecast is towards faster-than-expected inflation, which would cause policymakers to slow their easing cycle.” (Ashraf Malkham, “Govt may last only 18 more months, Imran Khan unlikely to walk free soon: Fitch,” The News International, 18 July 2024)
ECONOMY
IMF agreement increases funding prospects for Pakistan, says Moody’s
On 17 July, Global rating agency Moody’s indicated that the staff-level agreement between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan has enhanced the country’s funding prospects. It also highlighted that the sustainability of reforms will be key to mitigating liquidity risks. IMF and Pakistan signed a staff-level agreement on a 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement worth approximately USD 7 billion. However, the date of the vote has not yet been announced. In this regard, Moody’s stated that: “If approved, which we expect is likely, the new IMF program will improve Pakistan’s (Caa3 stable) funding prospects. The program will provide credible sources of financing from the IMF and catalyze funding from other bilateral and multilateral partners to meet Pakistan’s external financing needs.” Despite this, Moody’s advised the government to be consistent in achieving a “durable easing of liquidity risks.” The new IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) comes with strict reform conditions like broadening the tax base, eliminating exemptions, adjusting energy tariffs, improving state-owned enterprise management and privatization, phasing out agricultural subsidies, and liberalizing trade policy. Further, Moody's also warned that “A resurgence of social tensions due to the high cost of living—which may increase because of higher taxes and future adjustments to energy tariffs—could hinder reform implementation.” (“IMF agreement bolsters Pakistan’s funding prospects: Moody’s,” The News International, 17 July 2024)
IMF projects 3.5 per cent economic growth in Pakistan which falls below the government's target
On 17 July, The Express Tribune reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that the economy of Pakistan will witness a 3.5 per cent growth rate in the fiscal year 2024-2025. This projection, however, is below the Pakistan government’s 3.6 per cent target. According to Pakistan's economic survey, the government could only achieve a growth of 2.4 per cent in GDP during the fiscal year 2023-2024 which failed to meet the 3.5 per cent target set by the government. Pakistan’s economy was set back by several factors like chronic mismanagement, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions from the Ukraine war, and devastating floods in 2022.
Similarly, IMF in its World Economic Outlook cautioned a modest global economic growth for the next two years mainly due to challenges from “cooling activity in the US, a bottoming-out in Europe, and stronger consumption and exports in China.” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described these current global economic projections as “tepid twenties.” In addition, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, underscored that the major global economies’ growth is “aligned.” IMF increased the growth forecast for China to 5per cent for 2024 and the 2025 forecast was raised to 4.5 per cent. Further, the IMF warned of “persistent inflation risks, with elevated service prices and wage growth in labor-intensive sectors.” (Irshad Ansari, “IMF forecasts 3.5% growth for Pakistan in FY25, slightly below govt's target,” The Express Tribune, 17 July 2024)
ADB Outlook report predicts high inflation for Pakistan in the current fiscal year
On 17 July, The Express Tribune reported that latest the Asian Development Bank Outlook report has predicted high inflation in Pakistan for the current fiscal year. The outlook report raised the economic growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific from 4.9 per cent to 5 Per cent and highlighted a more challenging outlook for Pakistan. It mentioned that the inflation rate which had declined from 38 Per cent to 11.8 Per cent will keep surging upwards. It further noted that the country’s debt will see a reduction of 7 per cent from 77 per cent to 70 per cent. Despite this positive forecast, it highlighted that the country’s 62 per cent of revenue will go towards debt repayment during FY2024-2025. The report stated that though the global food prices are predicted to ease, some parts of the country will continue to face high food inflation due to “adverse weather and export restrictions.” (“ADB forecasts high inflation for Pakistan in current fiscal year,” The Express Tribune, 17 July 2024)
SECURITY
“People play a pivotal role in any counterterrorism operation,” says an opinion in The Express Tribune
On 17 July, in an opinion in The Express Tribune titled “Importance of public support in CT operation,” Faisal Ali Raja highlighted the importance of “public support” and people in the success of a counter-terrorism operation. He argued that it is important to “keep the sympathies of the public on the side of the incumbent” as the militants also try to garner local support. Raja also highlighted a dilemma that often complicates government action: It is difficult for the state to gauge the “mood of local population” and on the other hand it must act quickly against militants as they “keep on upping the ante with each passing day.” Further, the loss suffered by the locals both at the hands of militants and government action has induced “a sense of detachment and indifference in the hearts and minds of people.” This has made people “neutral in the conflict” and they have become “non-partisan — like spectators in any event.” Raja revealed that this pattern is not unique to Pakistan and “the pattern of public alienation to a CT” can be observed from “Africa to South Asia.” Raja has suggested that before an operation is launched “effort should be made to convince people or at least incentivise them to side the state.” (Faisal Ali Raja, “Importance of public support in CT operation,” The Express Tribune, 17 July 2024)
SOCIETY
Netblock reports restriction on access to Facebook across multiple service providers in the country
On 17 July, Internet monitor Netblocks revealed “a restriction on access to social media platform Facebook” during Yaum-i-Ashura or Muharram 10 celebration, across multiple service providers in the country. Yaum-i-Ashura is observed every year to pay ‘homage’ to Imam Husain and other deceased persons of Karbala. In this regard, Netblock stated: “authorities typically restrict mobile internet services” on the occasion. Down Detector, which tracks outages from several sources also confirmed issues in accessing Facebook and Instagram social media platforms.
Earlier, the Balochistan government had also announced mobile phone suspension and internet service blockings during the four days of the occasion. Separately, the Punjab government had also requested the Interior minister to shut down media platforms to control hate speech and misinformation to avoid “sectarian violence.” In response, the Interior minister had deferred the request and stated that PM Shehbaz Sharif will take a final decision in this regard. (“Facebook restricted across multiple service providers in Pakistan: NetBlocks,” Dawn, 17 July 2024)
ENVIRONMENT
NDMA issues urban flood alerts to KP and Punjab while KP and Gilgit Baltistan receive GOLF alert
On 17 July, the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) Emergencies Operation Centre issued an alert warning the possibility of urban flooding in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and other parts of the country due to heavy monsoon rain. The rains are likely to hit Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Islamabad, KP, central and northeastern Punjab from 17 July to 21 July. Earlier, on 15 July, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) mentioned that all four provinces including PoK and Gilgit Baltistan (GB) regions are likely to receive rains and thunderstorms. Furthermore, NDMA in its statement cautioned of strong winds and lightning strikes and advised the responsible departments to take necessary precautions to prevent and mitigate possible effects of flooding.
Similarly, NDMA has issued an alert on possible Glacial Outburst Floods (GOLF) in the mountainous regions of KP and Balochistan due to rising temperatures and anticipated heavy rainfall. Further, the NDMA directed the Provincial Disaster Management Authority of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority to cooperate with relevant departments to ensure necessary preparations and emergency response measures. Additionally, departments have been instructed to alert the local communities, tourists, and travelers in the risk areas. NDMA also launched the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert application to provide timely alerts and guidelines. Many glaciers in parts of Gilgit Baltistan have been melting over several years. Earlier, in 2022, as a result of floods due to heavy rains, and glacial melt, over 1700 people had been killed. (“KP, Punjab cities 'at risk of urban flooding' due to monsoon rain,” The News International, 18 July 2024; “NDMA issues GLOF alert for KP, Gilgit Baltistan,” The News International, 17 July 2024)
EXTERNAL
Pakistani students urged to keep away from the ongoing violent protests in Bangladesh
On 17 July, The News International reported that the Pakistan High Commission in Bangladesh has urged Pakistani students to keep away from the ongoing violent protests in Bangladesh and “take safety precautions.” The advisory comes amidst violence that has seen six people killed. Additionally, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar spoke to High Commissioner Syed Ahmad Maroof and took a stock of the situation, enquiring about the “welfare of Pakistanis in Bangladesh.” High Commissioner Maroof informed Dar that a helpline had been opened to ensure access to help. Dar also urged Maroof to be in touch with the local authorities to ensure the welfare of Pakistanis living in Bangladesh, “especially the students living in the Dhaka campus.” Separately, the United States has “urged Bangladesh to uphold the right to peaceful protest.” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement “We condemn any violence against peaceful protesters. We've been watching this matter very closely, both from our embassy and officials here in Washington.” (“Pakistani students in Bangladesh asked to stay away from protests,” The News International, 17 July 2024; “US calls on Bangladesh to uphold right to peaceful protests,” The News International, 18 July 2024)
AF-PAK
Pakistan issues “strong demarche” to Afghanistan and demands “immediate action” against the terrorists of the Bannu Cantonment attack
On 17 July, the Pakistan government issued a “strong demarche” to Afghanistan after a terrorist attack on Bannu Cantonment that happened on 15 July. The government also demanded the Taliban-led Afghan government to take “immediate action” against the perpetrators of the attack. On 16 July, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) in its statement mentioned that the attack killed at least eight Pakistan Army soldiers while the militants attempted to enter the facility. The Foreign Office (FO) noted the summoning of the deputy head of mission of the embassy of Afghanistan in Islamabad to “deliver Pakistan’s strong demarche.” The FO claimed in its statement that the attack was carried out by the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group based in Afghanistan which is responsible for the loss of lives of numerous citizens and officials in various attacks inside Pakistan. The statement added that the country has urged Afghanistan to take “immediate, robust and effective action against the perpetrators of the Bannu attack,” and to prevent repetition of such attacks inside Pakistan. In addition, it stressed its “commitment to combat this menace and to uphold its security against all threats.”
Similarly, ISPR stated that the security forces’ timely action prevented a “major catastrophe” and saved several lives. It further lauded the “gallant and selfless action of the security forces.” The ISPR statement mentioned the earlier call from Islamabad to Afghanistan, demanding the extradition of terrorist Gal Bahadur who is the leader of the TTP’s outlawed faction, Hafiz Gul Bahadur group. (“Islamabad urges Kabul to take 'immediate action' against terrorists involved in Bannu attack,” The News International, 17 July 2024)
US urges Afghan Taliban to refrain from launching terrorist attacks from their soil
On 16 July, the US State Department urged the Afghan Taliban to refrain from carrying out terrorist attacks from their soil and backed Pakistan’s efforts against terrorism. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on the terrorist attack on the Rural Health Center (RHC) in the Dera Ismail Khan district of Pakistan and stated that these were terrorists coming from the “safe haven in Afghanistan.” He stressed the efforts taken by the US and Pakistan to counter terrorism and stated: “We have a shared interest with the Pakistani people and the government of Pakistan in combating threats to regional security.” Earlier on 15 and 16 July, the terrorists attacked the Rural Health Center (RHC), Kirri Shamozai in the Dera Ismail Khan District and fired indiscriminately on the RHC staff in which seven people including two security forces, and five civilians died.
Additionally, Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder expressed his grievances about the loss of lives. He said: “Pakistan is in a tough fight at times when it comes to fighting terrorists in the region. And so, certainly saddened to - to hear that.” When asked about Pakistan’s demand for modern weapons from the US to deal with such situations, the spokesperson stated “I'm sure that those discussions are happening via those mechanisms to look at Pakistan's requirements and - and what the US can do to support.” (“US urges Taliban to ensure terrorist attacks are not launched from Afghan soil,” The News International, 17 July 2024)
INDIA VIEW
“Islamabad should not wait until a positive initiative from Modi” to devote efforts “achieving peace and stability,” argues an opinion in The Express Tribune
On 17 July, in an opinion in The Express Tribune titled “Modi’s Pakistan policy,” Dr Shuja Ahmed Mahesar argued that Prime Minister Modi’s “anti-Muslim rhetoric and his aggressive stance during the BJP’s general election campaign did not contribute much to his electoral success.” On the contrary, his “hostile attitude towards Pakistan” solidified his image as a “fascist leader and a bitter enemy of peace.” According to Mahesar, this hindered the BJP from securing a two-thirds majority in the general elections. Due to this setback, Mahesar believes that the Modi government would is likely to move towards course-correction in their third consecutive term and not indulge in “the politics of hate” against India’s 250 million Muslims. Mahesar also alleged that after the break down of diplomatic relations between the two countries in the aftermath of the Pulwama attack, “India began to carry out terrorist activities in Pakistan.” Mahesar further emphasized that “a change in Modi’s diplomatic approach may pave the way for a dialogue between Pakistan and India and improve relations between the two countries.” Further, he advised that Modi must “initiate a dialogue for peace” with Pakistan rather than indulge in “putting pressure on the country through different forums, including BRICS.” He also stressed that given Pakistan’s experience in countering terrorism both countries must cooperate in eradicating terrorism from the South Asian region. Given that both countries are vulnerable to climate change related challenges, they must “jointly fight climatic catastrophes.” Mahesar concluded by stating that even if there are no peace overtures from India, “Pakistan should not wait until a positive initiative from Modi” and “should demonstrate positivity by devoting energies to achieving peace and stability.” (Dr Shuja Ahmed Mahesar, “Modi’s Pakistan policy,” The Express Tribune, 17 July 2024)
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Shah ist Hussain, the king is Hussain Religion is Hussain, religion is refuge for Hussain Yazid did not shout It is true that Hussain (a.s.) should be made by God
- BilawalBhuttoZardari
Sanam Javed has some things that have fallen from the level of humanity, Tayyaba Raja
- Pervaiz Sandhila
Imran Khan has nothing to do with Islam, so whoever considers this hypocrite as a Jewish agent should only retweet.
-Imran Bilal
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