Pakistan responds to the killing of its laborers in Iran I Forex reserves to soar to USD 14 billion by June
In Focus
Remittances surge in March: What and Why?
Rohini Reenum
What happened?
On 14 April, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed revealed that Pakistan received a whopping USD 4.1 billion in remittances in March. This has necessitated an “upward” emendation in two key macroeconomic indicators-remittances and foreign exchange reserves- for the fiscal year 2025. The remittances target has been increased from USD 35 billion to USD 38 billion. The figures have also improved on a year-on-year basis. For instance, in the first nine months of the current fiscal, Pakistan received a total of USD 28.029 billion as compared to USD 21.037 billion for the same period of FY2024. This indicates a USD 7 billion increase. Most of these remittances flowed in countries like Saudi Arabia (USD 987 million) UAE (USD 842 million), the UK (USD 684 million), and the US (USD 419 million). Remittances from both the UAE and the UK have witnessed a significant jump of 54 per cent and 48 per cent respectively. PM Shehbaz Sharif hailed the development and emphasized that this indicates the overseas Pakistanis “trust in the government’s policies.”
What has caused a boost in remittances?
The SBP governor credited the government and the SBP’s efforts: promotion of formal banking proper functioning of the domestic foreign exchange market-channels and for the surge. Some experts believe that the 10-15 per cent surge was due to the yearly hike was “seasonal” on account of Ramazan. Others believe that the boost is a due to “both the government’s efforts to control flow of money through legal channels and a stable rupee.” The News quoted the Former Adviser to the Ministry of Finance Khaqan Najeeb who identified four key reasons for the surge, namely “Eid festivities and Ramazan, a rise in the number of Pakistanis seeking jobs abroad, macro stability here, and a crackdown against dubious money exchange offices.” Another reason was cited by Head of Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) Dr Abid Suleri who explained that Pakistan’s efforts to comply with the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) requirements has led it to crackdown on informal channels which has compelled people to forego informal channels like hawala and hundi and send money via official channels. Like other experts, Suleri reiterated that “rupee stability” is an important deciding factor and the country has witnessed the same in the last “one and a half years.” Suleri pointed out two other reasons: a shift away from investment in real estate to “dollar accounts” and “economic improvement in Gulf countries” which directly influences Pakistani workers’ capacity to send in remittances.
What next?
According to the SBP Governor, a surge in remittances mean that exchange reserves will increase to USD 14 billion from a target of USD 13 billion by the end of the current fiscal. The current account is also expected to remain in surplus for FY25. These developments have led the central bank to revise the projected economic growth rate to 3 per cent as opposed to World Bank’s 2.6 per cent. With the stabilization of key macroeconomic indicators, there is optimism that the economy is set for recovery. However, a surge in remittances in one odd month does not predict the continuance of the trend and any projections based on the same is likely to be altered in the future.
References
Shahid Iqbal, “Pakistan receives record $4.1bn in remittances,” Dawn, 15 April 2025
Aimen Siddiqui, “Explainer: Why such a massive, sudden rise in remittances,” The News International, 15 April 2025
Erum Zaidi, “Remittances defy PTI boycott call, hit record $4.1bn in March,” The News International, 15 April 2025
In Brief
EXTERNAL
Pakistan responds to the killing of its laborers in Iran
On 12 April, unknown militants murdered eight Pakistani laborers in Sistan-Baluchestan, Iran. The laborers were employed in a mechanic workshop. As per Iran, all the murdered laborers hailed from Bahawalpur, Punjab. After murdering the laborers, the militants fled from the location. Balochistan Liberation Army has assumed the “responsibility” for the assault.
On 15 April, an editorial in Dawn titled “Iran slayings” discussed the recent killing of Pakistani laborers in Sistan-Baluchestan. As per the editorial, the incident is a reminder that the two countries must collaborate to fight the threat of terrorism and demolish their “common” adversaries. The editorial mentioned that all the laborers who lost their lives belonged to Bahawalpur, Punjab. The editorial stated that there are two militant groups who have assumed responsibility for the gruesome act – the Balochistan National Army and the Jaish al-Adl. The editorial pointed out that the two groups, however, do not have convergent objectives. Balochistan National Army is a “separatist” organization; however, it has mainly remained dormant in the past few years. Jaish-al-Adl mainly carries out attacks against security forces of Iran. The editorial reminded about the previous killings which took place near the Iran-Pakistan border. In 2024, “10 Iranian border guards” lost their lives in an assault. They were deployed close to the border with Pakistan. In another incident in 2024, Punjabi workers were killed by militants in Sistan-Baluchestan, Iran. The editorial noted that the recent attack is another addition to a list of assaults that have taken place in Balochistan, where the militants specifically choose targets on the basis of “ethnic” background. The editorial called for Iran and Pakistan to enhance “counter-terrorism cooperation.” In addition to that, the two countries must put in efforts to inhibit cross-border attacks.
On the same day, an editorial in The News International titled Attack in Iran discussed the importance of Iran and Pakistan to continue maintaining cordial bilateral ties amid the recent attack. The editorial highlighted how the two countries have common “history, culture and strategic interests.” The editorial argued that a comprehensive inquiry into the incident is an urgent need of the situation. The editorial also stated that the two countries must stick to “calm diplomacy” while investigating the attack and make sure that it does not affect bilateral ties. The editorial pointed out how Iran and Pakistan share “deep-rooted ties” owing to the latter's “Shia population.” The editorial urged Iran to make sure that the culprits of the attack must face the wrath of law.
On the same day, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled “Killings inside Iran” highlighted how skirmishes and militant attacks which have become a regular occurrence at the border with Afghanistan are also spreading to the borders with Iran. The editorial claimed that the attack intended to cause tensions between the two countries. The editorial also demanded that this time, Iran must choose to cooperate with Pakistan for bringing the culprits to justice. (Saleem Shahid, “Eight Pakistanis killed in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan,” Dawn, 13 April 2025; “Iran slayings,” Dawn, 15 April 2025; “Attack in Iran,” The News International, 15 April 2025; “Killings inside Iran,” The Express Tribune, 15 April 2025)
GOVERNANCE & POLITICS
BNP-M convenes multi-party conference at Lakpass, calls for adhering to “constitutional safeguards”
On 14 April, Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) convened a “multi-party conference.” The conference took place at Lakpass in Balochistan. The conference which was chaired by Sardar Akhtar Mengal put forward a “joint Lakpass declaration.” The declaration dismissed the governmen’'s “hard state policy” and called for the freeing of detained party members. The declaration also demanded that the government must conform to “constitutional safeguards” which were guaranteed in 1948 “Instrument of Accession of Balochistan to Pakistan.” The leaders present at the conference warned that if the government decides to go for a “hard state” approach, it would risk further disruption. The multi-party conference saw the presence of members from Jamiat-Ulema-e Islam, National Party, Awami National Party, Jamat-i-Islami and several other leaders from regional parties. The conference adopted “a resolution” in which it criticized the intimidation and detention of leaders belonging to the BNP and Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC). It also condemned Inayatullah Lehri’s “killing.” Lehri was part of a “peaceful” demonstration in Wadh. In addition to that, the conference has also called for revoking the Mines and Mineral Act 2025 and that the province must have 50 per cent stakes in “Reko Diq project.” (Saleem Shahid, “BNP-M rejects ‘hard-state’ policy,” Dawn, 15 April 2025)
JUDICIARY
IMF mission apprised about ongoing judicial reforms
On 14 April, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Governance and Diagnostic Assessment teams held talks with the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA’s) to discuss judicial efficiency, protection of property rights and contract enforcement. Both sides acknowledged the importance of economic and political stability, along with good governance as a linchpin of the rule of law. The SCBA’s President Mohammad Rauf Atta apprised the mission of two major efforts on the legislative and judicial front to improve judicial efficiency. The former is linked to the implementation of the 26th Constitutional Amendment which is aimed at enhancing the judiciary’s independence and effectiveness and efficiency of the judicial system. Whereas on the judicial side, the Chief Justice of Pakistan has introduced an e-filling system to enhance case management, disposal of pending cases and introduce video link facilities in the apex court. Other efforts include the increase in number of judges in the upper and lower courts, introduction of tribunals to address tax issues and forums for complex matters via Alternate Dispute Resolution initiatives to promote justice at the grassroots. Regarding contract enforcement, the mission was informed that despite inefficiencies in procedure, the government is working to attract and secure foreign direct investment with special courts and benches introduced to resolve these matters. Moreover, efforts are also underway to boost anti-encroachment laws and related mechanisms for the protection of property rights.
SOCIETY
On vaccine campaigns:
“Until deeper issues are addressed with empathy and strategic engagement, Pakistan's dream of eradicating polio will remain a dream deferred by its own people's doubts,” says an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 15 April, according to The News International the average number of polio-vaccinated children between 2018 and 2024 in nationwide drives range from 39.3 million to 44.9 million. These figures were revealed by the Ministry of National Health Services to the National Assembly. Responding to a question, the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination informed that for under-five children to achieve herd immunity from the polio virus, they have to be administered the vaccine several times a year. Hence, on average, seven to eight campaigns are conducted in a year. Children receive vaccines from nationwide campaigns thrice a year while four to five doses are provided by sub-national campaigns throughout the year. In this regard, the number districts of reporting polio cases has dropped to six in 2025, from 34 districts in 2024. It marks an 82 per cent improvement from the previous year.
On the same day, an editorial titled “Polio vaccine hesitancy,” highlighted the country’s achievement in bringing down its polio count from 74 during the previous year to six in 2025. However, this is not sufficient as recent data from Karachi reveals 34,000 cases of vaccine refusal of 44,000. In fact, reports pertaining around 80 per cent of the refusals emerge from the District East. This is due to the rise of mistrust, misinformation and marginalization among the demography. Conspiracies linked to polio vaccination continue to impact populations ahead of an anti-polio drive scheduled for 21 April. In such a situation, the upcoming drive ought to “become a campaign of restoration and reassurance.” Besides administering the vaccine, polio workers and teams must speak the language and be mindful of cultural sensitivities to overcome hesitancy, the editorial said. (“44.9m children vaccinated against polio from 2018-2024: NHSR&C,” The News International, 15 April 2025; “Polio vaccine hesitancy,” The Express Tribune, 15 April 2025)
Four Pakistani nationals of 11 killed in boat capsize near Libya
On 15 April, an official communiqué from Pakistan’s embassy in Libya to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed the recovery of at least 11 dead bodies from a boat capsize incident near Harawa. It took place on 12 April close to Sirte. Among the victims, four were confirmed Pakistani nationals, while officials expect the death toll to rise as the search operations go on. (“Four Pakistanis among 11 dead as migrant boat sinks off Libyan coast,” The Express Tribune, 15 April 2025)
ECONOMY
IMF mission flags lack of transparency and accountability
On 14 April, an IMF mission submitted its initial observations linked to the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment report after concluding its 12-day visit to Pakistan. According to sources reported by The Express Tribune, the mission’s major findings include the politicization of the civil services. Major positions are claimed to have been taken up by individuals with allegiance to political leaders. Additionally, they often go unpunished for corruption cases. Even the appointment of heads to the State-Owned Enterprises and their boards are politically determined as the Pakistan Muslim League (N) changed eight of ten boards of power distribution companies, the remaining two remained unchanged due to an understanding with the Pakistan People’s Party. Moreover, the mission found inconsistent anti-corruption policies and measures in the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), and the provincial anti-corruption departments, established to wipe out corruption in Pakistan. The IMF mission also identified lack of organizational accountability especially in the Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP) and the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) departments as they function against their mandated purpose. The assessment also links the absence of government prioritization as a cause of weak governance and corruption vulnerability while identifying loopholes that lead to poor decision-making. (Shahbaz Rana, “IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms,” The Express Tribune, 15 April 2025)
Forex reserves to soar to USD 14 billion by June
On 14 April, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor anticipated that the country’s foreign exchange reserves will reach USD 14 billion by June 2025. In a media statement, he divulged an outflow of USD two billion in external payments over the next two and a half months, while foreign inflows worth USD four to five billion are expected to come in during the same period. Hence, the upcoming inflow could potentially raise the total forex reserves to USD 14 billion by June. Amid the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, he stated that exports worth USD 5.2 billion to the US will not suffer from the tariffs as falling global oil prices will help overcome induce limited impact. (“Forex reserves to reach $14bn by June: SBP governor,” The News International, 15 April 2025)
Import of crude oil widens trade gap with Middle East
On 15 April, Dawn reported on data compiled by the State Bank of Pakistan, hinting at a widening in trade deficit with the Middle East. It has grown by 9.75 per cent, worth USD 9.349 billion during the first eight months of the 2024-2025 fiscal compared to USD 8.518 billion in the previous year. This gap is primarily driven by the increase in petroleum imports. Its consumption grew due to a surge in import of crude oil by 20.29 per cent in quantity. A low export growth to the region has been recorded as they rose to USD 2.095 billion in the July-February period, from USD 2.023 billion in the same period during the previous year. Furthermore, Pakistan’s imports also witnessed a growth of 8.56 per cent, at USD 11.444 billion in the period under review, from USD 10.541 billion in the same period of the previous year. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Trade gap with ME widens,” Dawn, 15 April 2025)
On economic growth:
Pakistan ought to refrain from “lapses and reversals that have been the downfall of” its “previous attempts at turning its economy around,” says an editorial in The News International
On 15 April, an editorial titled “Stay the course” in The News International discussed the Asian Development Outlook report published by the Asian Development Bank. The report states that Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to be stable in the upcoming 2025-2026 fiscal. Its growth rate is anticipated to be the same as its current fiscal year, at 2.5 per cent. These estimates were determined before the US tariff policy. However, it does not alter much of the ADB’s insights. The report highlighted inflation to be an important factor as “more restrictive immigration measures and more expansionary fiscal policy in the US than assumed in our baseline could stoke inflation.” Besides, Pakistan’s trajectory largely depends on the success of the current economic reform under the International Monetary Fund’s Extended Fund Facility. In this regard, it remains imperative for Pakistan to maintain its current reform process while “resisting the temptation to relax macroeconomic policies” upon growing signs of stability. The report advises against any digression from the present reform agenda as it could lead to a “major downside risk” to the economy. (“Stay the course,” The News International, 15 April 2025)
ENERGY, WATER & ENVIRONMENT
PPP threatens withdrawal from ruling coalition over canals issue
On 15 April, Dawn reported that the PPP has threatened to withdraw from the “ruling coalition” over carving out “new canals” from Indus. Sindh CM Murad Ali Shah contended that his government had conclusive “evidence” that points out the shortcomings of the plan. It has vehemently “opposed” the federal government’s proposition to carve out new canals. Further, it alleges that after carving out new canals, it would decrease Sindh’s “share of water.” The warning came after Punjab alleged that Sindh was misrepresenting “discharged water data.” The Sindh government has put forward “a summary” to the Council of Common Interests (CCI) regarding canals. The leaders of PPP remain adamant that they would strongly oppose construction of new canals on the Indus River. One of the members of the PPP has urged the federal government to convene a “CCI meeting” for looking into the issue of new canals. As per PPP’s Syed Hassan Murtaza who is General Secretary of Central Punjab, PPP would go to any extent, even if it involves withdrawal from “ruling coalition” if its grievances are not paid heed to. (Amjad Mahmood and Mohammad Hussain Khan, “Punjab grumbles as Sindh stands firm on new canals,” Dawn, 15 April 2025)
Ministry of Water Resources highlights current “status” of canals in the National Assembly
On 14 April, the Ministry of Water Resources had put forward a comprehensive report in the National Assembly which highlights the present “status” of “canals” which are being built “under Green Pakistan Initiative.” The Ministry of Water Resources informed that in accordance with the proposal formulated by Provincial Irrigation Department of Punjab, the present setting of “inter-water transfer” would be used to supply water to the Cholistan canal. Further, it informed that the “smaller Cholistan canal” is being funded and supervised by the Punjab government. For the canal, previously, Indus River System Authority (IRSA) had provided a “water availability certificate.” For the Thar canal located in Sindh, the provincial government has not approached the IRSA for getting a “water availability certificate.” IRSA had provided a “water availability certificate” to The Greater Thar canal which is located in Punjab in 2002. Phase-1 construction of the canal was finalized in 2008. The total cost amounted to PKR 10.17 billion. Phase-2 of the canal construction is yet to be approved by Council of Common Interests. Phase-1 of the Rainee canal in Sindh was finished in 2014. The cost of the construction amounted to PKR 17.886 billion. The Sindh government has refused to begin the Phase-2 of the canal construction. For the Kacchi canal which is in Balochistan, IRSA had already provided the “water availability certificate.” However, the concerned authorities have not provided their assent. (Asim Yasin, “Green Pakistan Initiative: Water ministry informs NA about current status of canals,” The News International, 15 April 2025)
SECURITY
Militants attack houses of police officers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 14 April, unknown miscreants in Bannu shot and killed a police officer. In another incident, in South Waziristan, dead bodies of “two constables” were retrieved. The two constables were kidnapped by militants on 12 April and were taken to an unknown place. In response to the kidnapping, Dottani tribe had formulated a “traditional tribal force” to find the abductors. Reportedly, there was a skirmish between the tribal force and the militants. Three militants were neutralized in the skirmish. As per Deputy Superintendent of Police, militants have embarked on conducting assaults on the houses of police officers in Toor Deb, Spin Tangi and Bero Kach.
On the same day, an unfinished building in Tank became a target for the militants. The militants carried out an explosion which resulted in wounding seven laborers who were engaged in construction of the building. The concerned authorities have not confirmed who the militants were. Up until now, no militant group has taken “responsibility” for the attack. (“Seven injured in KP as explosion rocks Rescue 1122 site,” Dawn, 15 April 2025)
On the need to revitalize National Counter Terrorism Authority:
“With violence escalating in KP and Balochistan, Pakistan cannot afford to delay action” says an editorial in Dawn
On 9 April, an editorial in Dawn titled “Following through” discussed the urgent need to revitalize National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA). The editorial highlighted the increase in capacity of terrorist groups to carry out gruesome attacks which could be seen in “hijack of Jaffar Express, assaults in Dera Ismail Khan and Gwadar.” The editorial mentioned the recent formulation of National Intelligence Fusion and Threat Assessment Centre (NIFTAC) which would be directed by NACTA. The editorial pointed out the earlier formulated agencies that were supposed to work under NACTA, however, remained ineffective such as the Joint Intelligence Directorate which was established in 2016. The editorial argued that the state’s response to terrorism fails to look at the “root causes.” The editorial called for ameliorating NACTA and not ignoring it after terrorist attacks subside. The editorial suggested that the state must initiate “reforms” in areas which have been devoid of economic growth at the earliest. Further, violent groups which continue to remain in the “public sphere” must be dismembered.
AF-PAK
President of Afghan Refugees Pakistan urges government, judiciary to rethink Afghan deportation policy
On 14 April, Muhammad Tadeen Khan Tarakai who is the “President of the Afghan Refugees Pakistan” addressed a press conference in which he urged the federal government and judiciary of Pakistan to rethink the policy of forceful deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan. Further, he endeavored that the judiciary and federal government must look for a constructive resolution to the problem through “mutual understanding and negotiations.” He highlighted how more than 35 lakh refugees from Afghanistan were residing in “72 camps” across Pakistan. Further, he highlighted how more than 500,000 refugees from Afghanistan who reside in Pakistan do not possess proper documents. He stated that close to 14 lakh refugees from Afghanistan possess Proof of Registration cards. He urged that the NGOs working in Pakistan must assist the federal government with the required funding for revalidating expired cards of the refugees. According to him, re-validating would help the refugees to get USD 375 which could be spent on “travel” expenditure and food. He also spoke about the challenges which the refugees from Afghanistan would incur when they go back to Afghanistan. He stated that a large chunk of the refugee population does not possess accommodation. (Saleem Shahid, “Govt, judiciary urged to reconsider Afghan repatriation plan,” Dawn, 15 April 2025)
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The backs of 40 million farmers in Punjab have been broken. There is no one to buy their wheat. One maund of wheat is not even worth Rs 2,000. A pizza is more expensive than one maund of wheat. These farmers will not cultivate wheat in the next season. The government will have to import wheat and everything from flour to bread will become expensive.
- Hamid Mir
We will not allow anyone to take revenge for being expelled from our medical college, by humiliating a doctor, by making an MS - stop taking revenge on people for your inferiority complex.
Aaliya Hamza
- PTI
If the establishment contacts us for talks, we will go, says Barrister Gohar, Chairman PTI
- Nadeem Malik
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"With their legitimacy crisis, the rulers are scrambling to ‘fix’ the economy rather than reforming it."
- An opinion in Dawn, 'Economic miracles.’
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The backs of 40 million farmers in Punjab have been broken. There is no one to buy their wheat. One maund of wheat is not even worth Rs 2,000. A pizza is more expensive than one maund of wheat. These farmers will not cultivate wheat in the next season. The government will have to import wheat and everything from flour to bread will become expensive.
- Hamid Mir
We will not allow anyone to take revenge for being expelled from our medical college, by humiliating a doctor, by making an MS - stop taking revenge on people for your inferiority complex.
Aaliya Hamza
- PTI
If the establishment contacts us for talks, we will go, says Barrister Gohar, Chairman PTI
- Nadeem Malik
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|
|
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"With their legitimacy crisis, the rulers are scrambling to ‘fix’ the economy rather than reforming it."
- An opinion in Dawn, 'Economic miracles.’
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