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CWA # 1660
Conflict Weekly
India-Pakistan Tensions | Ukraine between missile attacks and ceasefire proposals

 
4 May 2025

Conflict Weekly #278&279, 1 May 2025, Vol.6, No. 17 & 18
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

D Suba Chandran and Abhiruchi Chowdhury

A Militant attack in J&K and India-Pakistan Tensions
D Suba Chandran
 
In the news
On 22 April, militants belonging to the Resistance Front (TRF) opened fire in Pahalgam in Kashmir Valley in J&K, on tourists from the rest of India, killing 26. India’s Cabinet Committee on Security met on the same day, and decided to hold the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, closed the India-Pakistan border crossing point at Attari, cancelled visas issued to Pakistani nationals, declared military advisers in Pakistan’s High Commission in New Delhi as persona non grata, and withdrew its own defence personal from Islamabad. The CCS meeting also decided to bring the perpetrators of the attack to justice and hold their sponsors to account.

On 24 April, Pakistan convened its National Security Committee to respond to India’s actions. The meeting decided to consider unilateral suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as an act of war, to suspend all bilateral agreements (including Simla), to close its side of the border crossing at Wagah, to cancel visas to Indians, and to close the air space for Indian airlines.

On 25 April, in a press statement, the UN Security Council “strongly condemned” the terrorist attack and “stressed that the perpetrators, organisers, financiers and sponsors must be held accountable and brought to justice.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister stated that his country “is open to participating in any neutral, transparent, and credible investigation,” but warned that “any attempt to stop, reduce, or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan under the Indus River Treaty would be responded to with full force and might.”

On 28 April, the Hindu quoted an Indian army official referring to the Pakistan army initiating small arms fire across the Line of Control (LoC) during 26-27 April and the Indian army responding to the same. Ever since, there have been regular skirmishes between the two armies across the LoC. On 29 April, Dawn quoted Pakistan’s military spokesman, accusing India of activating its assets to intensify terrorist attacks in Pakistan. 

On 30 April, the Hindu quoted the Indian Prime Minister having complete operational freedom to the Indian armed forces to decide on mode, target and timing of the Indian response. On 1 May, Dawn quoted Pakistan’s deputy prime minister saying the following: “Pakistan will not be the first one to resort to any escalatory move; however, in case of any escalatory move by the Indian side, we will respond very strongly,” and “any misadventure will be responded to in a befitting and decisive manner at the time and place of our choosing.”

Issues at large
First, declining militant attacks since 2019 and increasing tourism and investments in J&K. During the last ten years, major militant attacks in J&K have declined drastically. While there were minor attacks (according to data published by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, there were 72 and 61 casualties during 2023 and 2024, respectively), the last major attack was in 2019 in Pulwama. Correspondingly, tourism in J&K was picking up, along with other economic activities, including investments, underlining the return of normalcy to the region.

Second, the emergence of the Resistance Force (TRF). Considered as an offshoot of the Laskar-e-Toiba (LeT), a terrorist group based in Pakistan which is globally recognised and designated accordingly, TRF came into being in 2019 in J&K. India banned TRF in 2023; according to media reports in reputed newspapers, TRF was targeting non-Kashmiris and also religious minorities within J&K. 

Third, India-Pakistan tensions, and Islamabad’s fear over India unilaterally withdrawing from the Indus Water Treaty. During recent years, New Delhi has adopted a tough posture towards Pakistan and has kept the bilateral relations to a minimal, and also has taken measures within J&K (including the abrogation of Article 370 and removal of the statehood in 2019). Pakistan has been wanting India to normalize relations and undo the changes New Delhi has made in J&K. Both at the state and civil society levels, Pakistan has been apprehensive of India unilaterally ending its commitment to the Indus Water Treaty, which remains its only river system. Pakistan’s agriculture and economy are dependent on the Indus river system.

Fourth, the limited role/influence of external actors. While the UN Security Council has condemned the terrorist attack in J&K, and other major countries from the US to Middle East have called for de-escalation, their influence on India and Pakistan have been minimal, especially relating to J&K. While Pakistan has been attempting to bring the international actors to address the bilateral issues with India, the latter has resisted them.
 
In perspective
First the cyclic nature of tensions in India-Pakistan relations, triggered by militant groups. Post-Kargil War, during the recent decades, the bilateral tensions were all triggered by militant activities either with a base in Pakistan, or linked with organizations such as Lashkar-e-Toiba. From the militant attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 and in Mumbai in 2008, militant groups and their activities in India (both within J&K and outside) have been the primary trigger of the bilateral tensions.

Second, India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty as a punitive measure creates an existential alarm in Pakistan. Supported by the World Bank and signed by India and Pakistan in 1960, the Indus Water Treaty has withstood the three wars and multiple escalations until now, primarily because India has not violated it. Indus river system being Pakistan’s lifeline, Islamabad fears New Delhi walking away from it would be a big blow, than any bilateral military confrontation. Hence, Pakistan wants India to respect it, and the latter wants to use it as a punitive measure against the former from supporting militant groups.

US, Ukraine and Russia: Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
 
In the news
On 30 April, the US and Ukraine signed an agreement to split the gains incurred by selling mineral and energy resources of the latter in future. As part of the deal, an “investment fund” would be formulated, which would facilitate US projects on the development of Ukraine’s mineral wealth.  

On 29 April, Russia launched drone assaults on Kharkiv and Dnipro, injuring around 38 people and killing one. On the same day, two people were killed and three others were injured in Ukraine’s drone attack on Belgorod, Russia.

On 28 April, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced a “unilateral three-day ceasefire” from 8 May. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy termed Putin’s announcement as “another attempt at manipulation.” 

On 26 April, US President Donald Trump and Zelenskyy held a discussion in the Vatican. Zelenskyy, on social media, expressed gratitude for Trump and called it a “good meeting.” He wrote: “Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.”
On the same day, after the Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Trump questioned Putin’s intentions regarding the peace deal. He questioned: “It makes me think, that he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along and has to be dealt differently, through banking or secondary sections?”

Issues at large
First, the three earlier failed ceasefires. On 19 April, on Easter day, Putin announced to cease in attacks on Ukraine for 30 hours, highlighting “humanitarian consideration.” However, Zelenskyy claimed that Russia violated the ceasefire roughly 3000 times. He alleged that Russia carried out intense shelling on Pokrovsk, a city in the eastern part of the country. Russia asserted that Ukraine carried out attacks during the truce using US weapons. On 25 March, the White House announced another ceasefire where Russia and Ukraine agreed to cease attacks against each other’s energy installations and in the Black Sea. A few hours later, Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a drone strike on the power installations in Bryansk and Kursk. Ukraine, however, rejected Moscow’s accusations. On 18 March, Trump and Putin held a telephone conversation, with Russia agreeing to cease attacks against Ukraine’s energy installations. However, Zelenskyy accused Russia of breaching the ceasefire by attacking a hospital in Sumy.   

Second, the continuing Russian offence against Ukraine amidst peace talks. On 24 April, Russia launched drone missile assaults on Kyiv, killing 12 people and injuring 30 others. This was one of the most lethal assaults on Kyiv since 8 July 2024. There was another attack on Zaporizhzhia, which injured 38 people. After the easter ceasefire came to an end on 21 April, Ukraine accused Russia of hurling drone and missile attacks in Mykolaiv and Kherson.   

Third, the difference in positions of the EU, Russia and the US on the peace proposal. Trump had claimed that a major part of the peace proposal had been agreed upon. As per Reuters, the US’ peace proposal has agreed to recognise Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as parts of Russia. However, in Ukraine and Europe’s proposal, a ceasefire is suggested as a precondition for discussions on the future of the Russian-annexed territories. Further, the US’ peace proposal puts the onus of Ukraine’s security on the “coalition of willing.” On the contrary, Europe’s peace proposal demands that the US provide a firm security commitment to Ukraine that must be on the lines of Article 5 of the NATO charter.   

Fourth, the different interests in the minerals deal. Trump had continually pushed for signing the minerals deal to receive monetary compensation for the financial assistance of about USD 375.8 billion, which the US provided to Ukraine since the war began. Additionally, access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals is seen as part of Trump’s vision to bring the US back to the centre of technological advancement. Ukraine, on the other hand, saw the minerals deal as an opportunity to gain “security guarantees” from the US, to prevent future attacks from Russia.   
 
In perspective
First, Ukraine was unable to get what it had initially desired to get from the minerals deal. The lack of security guarantees from the US means that Trump has been able to successfully push his agenda of receiving monetary benefit sometime in future from Ukraine without overtly confronting Moscow. The minerals deal is a defeat for Ukraine and Europe’s anti-Russia agenda.

Second, Trump’s practical approach towards Russia’s continued offence against Ukraine. Although Trump did condemn Russia’s attacks on Ukraine amid negotiations of peace deal, he did not apply any further sanctions on Russia. Trump realised that applying any further sanctions would prolong the duration of the war and diminish the chances of achieving a peace deal.

NIAS Conflict Tracker
Where, When and What
D Suba Chandran and Anu Maria Joseph

Air Strikes in Syria, Gaza and Yemen
In the Middle East, violence took place between the militias and government troops in southern Syria. It resulted in the killing of civilians mostly belonging to the Druze community that lives in the region, and members of the government troops. Clashes took place after allegations that the members of the Druze community criticised Prophet Muhammad. The Druze community has less trust on the new government in Syria. Tensions increased further, when Israel carried out airstrikes during the weekend, supporting the Druze community.

In Gaza, Israel, continued with its air strikes, targeting Hamas. In Yemen, the US continued to target the Houthis. During this week, an airstrike, according to Houthis had killed more than 60.

DR Congo: A ceasefire and potential peace deal
During the previous two weeks, the conflict in eastern DRC saw major positive developments. On 23 April, the DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels agreed to a ceasefire. The discussions were mediated by Qatar in Doha. The mutual ceasefire commitment was aimed towards achieving a peace deal. 

Subsequently, on 26 April, Rwanda and the DRC agreed to draft a peace deal by 2 May during the talks between foreign ministers in the US. They have agreed to draft a peace deal committing to respect sovereignty and refrain from providing military support to armed groups. The mediations were led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio described the agreement as a "win-win," while emphasising the US' mineral interests in eastern DRC. 

Meanwhile, DRC's former President Joseph Kabila, who ruled the country for 18 years, faces the challenge of losing his legal immunity over supporting M23 rebels. His party, Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), was suspended, assets were seized, and he is being accused of treason for supporting the rebels. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Nova Karun and Fleur Elizabeth Philip 

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Seizes a South China Sea reef disputed by the Philippines
On 28 April, BBC quoted the Chinese media, CCTV, that the Chinese Coast Guard seized a small sandbank in the South China Sea. The sandbank is part of the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. The CCTV posted images of four Chinese officers holding Chinese flags on the sand reef in the Spratly Islands. Later, the Philippines announced that they landed three soldiers holding the Philippines flag on the sandbank. The Philippines National Task Force West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) informed of the illegal presence of the Chinese Coast Guard in the region. The NTF said: “This operation reflects the unwavering dedication and commitment of the Philippine Government to uphold the country's sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea.” Meanwhile, the US National Security Council noted that China's seizure of the reef is concerning and that similar actions violate international law and regional stability.

China: Beijing capable of building 40 nuclear units simultaneously, says CNEA
On 27 April, China’s Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA) reported on China’s capability to build more than 40 nuclear power plants simultaneously. According to the China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2025, the mass construction of the Hualong One nuclear reactors in China and abroad has increased China’s capacity to build nuclear power plants. In 2024, China’s investments in constructing nuclear power plants reached USD 146.9 billion, a record high with a USD 52 billion increase from 2023. CNEA’s Executive Vice Chairman Cao Shudong said: “China has gradually developed full lifecycle construction and operating capabilities in nuclear power engineering, from design and construction to commissioning and commercial operation. Its construction and management capabilities for multi-unit nuclear power projects are at the forefront internationally.” Cao added that in 2024, China opened 12 nuclear research facilities and launched collaborative projects with Bangladesh, Thailand, Hungary, Poland, and Nigeria.  

China: Delivers PL-15 missiles to Pakistan, reports First Post  
On 28 April, First Post reported that Pakistan deployed F-17 Block III with Chinese long-range PL-15E air-to-air missiles amid rising tensions with India. The PL-15E model is supplied by China under a USD 1.525 billion contract. They also delivered 20 J-10CE fighters, ten spare WS-10B engines, and 240 PL-15E missiles. The PL-15E has a limited range. Pakistan Air Force (PAF) released images of fighter jet capabilities on social media, indicating that China made express delivery.

China: US imposes 245 per cent tariffs
On 17 April, the White House announced the imposition of 245 per cent tariffs on China. This comes after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to investigate the national security risks associated with the US' reliance on critical minerals imports. The order to the US Secretary of Commerce was to kickstart an investigation under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This act was to be used by the Trump administration to scrutinise imports of copper, lumber, steel, and aluminium. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that the ball is in China’s court; China needs to make a deal with the US, and it is not the other way around. This new hike comes after the previous 145 per cent, 104 per cent, 54 per cent, and 20 per cent tariffs.

On the same day, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: “We have noticed a relevant report. As for how the figure comes out, you can ask the US side for the specific tax rate figures.” They noted that these excessive tariffs have degenerated into a number game and do not conform to practical economic significance. The ministry added that it exposes the US’s tactics of using tariffs and tricks as a tool and a weapon to bully and coerce. They concluded that trade and tariff wars have no winners, and that China does not want to fight the trade war. They noted that if the US continues to play the number game, “China will ignore it.”

China: Embassy in Canada condemns the cybersecurity advisory by Ottawa
On 16 April, China’s Embassy to Canada condemned the cybersecurity advisory issued by the Canadian government against China. The statement noted that despite China’s solemn representation, Canadians have once again smeared China’s image. They called the cyber threat slander and firmly rejected it. The advisory said that the Canadian government “has observed increasing levels of China threat actor activity, including activity associated with Salt Typhoon, targeting network edge routers across critical infrastructure sectors.” The embassy replied: “China is one of the primary victims of cyberattacks. We have always firmly opposed and cracked down on all forms of cyberattacks by the law, and we are committed to safeguarding cybersecurity.”

China: US accuses Chinese satellite firm of aiding Houthis
On 17 April, the US Department of State accused a Chinese satellite firm, Chang Guang Satellite Technology, of supporting attacks by Iran-backed Houthi fighters. US Department of State spokesperson Tammy Bruce said: “China consistently attempts … to frame itself as a global peacemaker … however, it is clear that Beijing and China-based companies provide key economic and technical support to regimes like Russia, North Korea, and Iran and their proxies. When I inquired about the same with the Chinese embassy in the US, they noted that they were not familiar with the matter and did not respond to comment on the same.”

Taiwan: Seabed cable sabotage by China a growing gray-zone threat, says Defense News editorial
On 25 April, an editorial in Defense News reported that Taiwan’s Coast Guard charged the captain of the Togolese-flagged cargo vessel Hong Tai 58, a Chinese national, for damaging an undersea communications cable linking Taiwan to the Penghu Islands. Authorities have blacklisted nearly 100 China-linked ships suspected of similar acts, which experts and US Admiral Samuel Paparo characterize as coercive “gray-zone” tactics. In US congressional testimony, Paparo called for penetrating the adversary’s targeting chain and building resilient, redundant networks, such as low-Earth-orbit satellites, to mitigate disruptions.  Meanwhile, defense contractors including Saab, Exail and Thales are marketing autonomous underwater vehicles, subsea sensors and towed-array systems to patrol and protect critical undersea infrastructure. 

South Korea: DeepSeek accused of transferring personal data to Chinese firms
On 24 April, Reuters quoted South Korea’s Personal Information Protection Commission that DeepSeek transferred personal information to Chinese firms without user consent. The AI firm shared the data when the app and its services were available to download in South Korea. In February, the app was suspended in South Korea, citing its failure to protect personal data. The commission found that DeepSeek consented to send information to Volcano Engine, a Chinese firm. DeepSeek clarified that the move was to improve the user experience and did block the transfer of AI prompts. The commission asked DeepSeek to remove the shared AI prompts immediately and establish a legal basis for transferring personal information.

South Korea: To launch fourth military reconnaissance satellite
On 21 April, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defence confirmed the launch of its fourth military reconnaissance satellite from Cape Canaveral. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite will lift off on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. It is part of a plan to deploy five launches in 2025 to ensure two‑hour revisit imaging of North Korean activity and reduce reliance on US imagery. The first electro‑optical/infrared satellite launched in December 2023 and two subsequent SAR satellites deployed last year have begun enhancing Seoul’s independent surveillance capabilities. 

Japan: To join Balikatan 2025 with the US, Australia, and the Philippines 
On 18 April, the Japan Times reported that Japan would move beyond observer status and participate in the annual Balikatan exercises. Japan plans to dispatch about 150 Self‑Defense Force personnel and the Mogami‑class frigate Yahagi to the Philippines and surrounding waters from 29 April to 9 May. This expanded role will see Japanese forces take part in combined maritime patrols, disaster relief drills, and integrated air and missile defence alongside some 14000 US, Philippine, and Australian troops, while observing amphibious assault and logistics exercises. Tokyo’s decision to contribute personnel and equipment reflects its intent to sharpen the SDF’s joint operational capabilities and deepen interoperability under the Reciprocal Access Agreement recently signed with Manila. Balikatan 2025, which will feature advanced US unmanned surface drones and an anti‑ship missile system, underscores a growing network of security cooperation involving not just the Philippines’ treaty ally, the US, but also Japan, Australia, and other like‑minded partners amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said: “We will work very closely, not only with our treaty ally, but also with other like-minded partners in reestablishing deterrence.” Canada, Germany, and the UK have also been invited to attend the large-scale drills as military observers.

Japan: JMSDF warships make port call at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base
On 19 April, the Embassy of Japan in Phnom Penh announced that two Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) vessels, the destroyer Bungo and the training ship Etajima, visited Cambodia’s newly renovated Ream Naval Base. The facility was upgraded with Chinese assistance that Washington fears could host PLA Navy ships. The Japanese embassy in Phnom Penh hailed the visit as “historically significant,” noting Cambodia’s assurances that Ream remains open to all countries. They called for increased trust and transparency as Japan, the US, and others monitor China’s growing regional influence. 

Myanmar: Hands over 920 Chinese telecom fraud suspects
On 23 April, China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS) informed that the Myanmar law enforcement authorities handed over 920 Chinese telecom fraud suspects. They were apprehended in Tangyan and Mong Husi regions in the Shan State of Myanmar. They were transferred to Chinese authorities through the Dalou border in Yunnan Province. MPS said: “This marks a new achievement in the continued efforts of Chinese and Myanmar law enforcement agencies to combat telecom fraud deeper within Myanmar's territory, following the complete dismantling of large-scale fraud operations in northern Myanmar near the Chinese border.” China and Myanmar have jointly arrested over 55,000 Chinese nationals involved in online fraud through special telecom operations. 

Australia: Heavy waves claim five lives on the East Coast
On 19 April, five people drowned after huge waves hit parts of Australia, with two others missing off the coasts of New South Wales and Victoria. On 18 April, one woman drowned and a man went missing after their group was swept into the sea at San Remo in Victoria. Victoria Premier Jacinta Allan remarked that it was an “awful start” to the Easter weekend and expressed sympathy for the families, warning of “potentially more difficult news to come.” Australia’s eastern states have been battered by dangerous waves, prompting Surf Life Saving Australia head Adam Weir to advise holidaymakers to visit patrolled beaches. He said: “Coastal locations can present dangers, some that you can see and some that you can't, which is why we have some simple advice: Stop, Look, Stay Alive.”

South Asia
Nepal: Maoist party to arrest Gyanendra Shah if it comes to power
On 21 April, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre)’s Matrika Prasad Yadav announced its plan to arrest former King Gyanendra Shah for violating the constitution and supporting pro-monarchist protests if his party came to power. Additionally, he accused India’s Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath of supporting these movements. He claimed that Adithyanath was intervening in Nepal’s affairs. These statements come as Nepal witnesses emerging pro-monarchist rhetoric among the youth. A major event since the former king’s return to Nepal was marked by clashes between police and pro-monarchist protestors in the capital on 28 March.

Bangladesh: Police arrest Awami League leaders and affiliates in Khulna
On 21 April, police arrested 48 leaders and activists of the Awami League and its affiliates for attempting to stir unrest and conspiring to topple the government in Khulna. The Khulna Metropolitan Police divulged a series of flash processions launched by the Awami League, the Jubo League, and the Chhatra League from 20 April. According to Dhaka Metropolitan Police Deputy Commissioner, Talebur Rahman, many suspects “were involved in attempts to destabilise the country.” 

Pakistan: Counter-terrorism department of Balochistan police neutralizes five militants in Duki
On 19 April, the Counter-terrorism Department (CTD) of Balochistan police killed five militants in an operation against militants hiding in Duki. As per the CTD, militants were preparing to launch assaults in Duki and Ziarat. The CTD officials informed that the “hideouts” of the militants were demolished and a huge number of “arms, ammunition and equipment” were confiscated.  

Afghanistan: Interim Prime Minister vows to stop militants carrying out attacks against Pakistan
On 19 April, Afghanistan’s interim Prime Minister, Mullah Hasan Akhund, vowed that the Taliban government would not permit militants to launch attacks against other countries from its territory. The remarks came after he met Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Afghanistan’s Prime Minister’s office stated: “The Prime Minister assured the Pakistani delegation that Afghan territory will not be used against any nation, including its neighbors.” Ishaq Dar’s visit to Afghanistan signifies Pakistan’s attempt to restart dialogue with Afghanistan after a brief impasse in their diplomatic relations. Pakistan has continually voiced concerns over militants from Afghanistan launching attacks on Pakistan. Additionally, Pakistan expedited the repatriation process of Afghan refugees. Previously, the Foreign Office had stated that “terrorism” was a major “concern” when it comes to ties with Afghanistan.

Pakistan: Security forces kill 16 TTP militants in three separate operations in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 21 April, 16 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants were neutralized by the security forces. The three military operations were carried out in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Mianwali, Punjab, the counter-terrorism department of police neutralized ten militants. The police initiated the operation along with the Rangers after it received information regarding the presence of militants in Mullakhel. In a separate operation in North Waziristan, KP, five TTP militants were neutralized. The security forces launched an intelligence-based operation (IBO) after they received information regarding the presence of militants. In South Waziristan, as per law-enforcement agencies, a high-profile militant named Zabi Ullah was neutralized. 

Pakistan: Turkey offers support in combating “all forms of terrorism”
On 22 April, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif embarked on a two-day visit to Turkey. Turkey has vowed to back Pakistan in combating the threat of terrorism. Sharif and Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have expressed their commitment to enhance and “diversify” bilateral “strategic cooperation.” Shairf stated that the visit provided an opportunity to examine the headway towards achieving the objectives of the 7th Pakistan-Turkey high level strategic council meeting. Sharif is looking to attract investments in “energy, IT, infrastructure, mines and minerals.” The two countries are looking towards increasing “bilateral trade” amounting to USD five billion. Sharif added that “defence and security cooperation” continues to be an important part of the bilateral cooperation. He expressed gratitude towards Ankara for backing Islamabad in “counter-terror efforts.” Sharif and Erdogan agree on the “need for unity among Muslim Ummah.” Erdogan stated that the two sides delved into discussions on “regional and global issues.” He offered sympathy towards the people of Pakistan who lost their lives in militant attacks. Further, he informed that the two sides deliberated on “peace and stability in the region.” 

Pakistan: Three killed in IED explosion in Kalat
On 24 April, three people, including a Jamia Ulema-i-Islam (F) (JUI-F) leader, were killed in a roadside explosion while five others sustained injuries in Kapootu, Kalat. According to Levies, an improvised explosive device detonated when it came in contact with a pickup vehicle with eight passengers onboard. An official from the Kalat administration claimed that the IED may have been planted to attack security personnel. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

Pakistan: Explosion kills four FC personnel of bomb disposal squad in Quetta
On 25 April, The News International reported that an explosion took place beside the bomb disposal squad in Quetta, Balochistan. The explosion killed four and injured three personnel of the Frontier Corps (FC). The security forces initiated a search operation to detain the guilty. Balochistan’s Minister of Food, Noor Muhammad Khan denounced the attack. 

Pakistan: Security forces neutralize 54 militants attempting to trespass Afghan border
On 27 April, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) informed that 54 militants were neutralized while trying to trespass into North Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through the Afghan border. As per the ISPR, this is the highest number of militants neutralized by security forces in a “single engagement.” ISPR informed that the security forces were able to confiscate huge quantities of weapons, ammunition and explosives. As per the ISPR, the militants were getting orders from “foreign masters.” The ISPR statement hinted of India’s involvement in facilitating the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The ISPR alleged that India was attempting to divert the attention of the security forces from “war against terror” by raising tensions in the region. 

Pakistan: Ten terrorists killed in different operations in Balochistan
On 30 April, according to Dawn, ten terrorists were killed in operations launched in different parts of Balochistan after gaining intelligence of militant activity in the respective areas. An Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement reported that three militants were killed in an intelligence-based operation in Turbat, Kech district, following a heavy exchange of fire with security personnel. Separately, the security-led operations in Choteer and Sanjavi areas in Ziarat killed seven militants.

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: Delegation in Cairo to discuss long-term ceasefire proposal
On 20 April, an Israeli delegation reached Cairo to continue ceasefire-hostage negotiations. According to Qatari and the UK sources, Egypt and Qatar’s mediators have proposed a long-term ceasefire lasting five to seven years, a formal suspension of hostilities, a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza and a release of “all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.” With its capabilities depleted, Hamas was reportedly willing to halt all military operations, including weapons-building and its digging of tunnels, if Israel agreed to a long-term ceasefire. Furthermore, an anonymous Arab diplomat revealed that Hamas was willing to let Israeli forces seize all of the group’s weapons and place them in a guarded warehouse. Hamas was reportedly willing to cede control of Gaza and let it be governed by an independent group of Palestinian bureaucrats — a policy envisioned by the Egyptian side. Israel has not yet formally responded to the proposal. 

War in Gaza: Renewed Israeli airstrikes across the enclave  
On 22 April, Israel continued with its renewed military operations in Gaza, launching fresh airstrikes, killing seven people. Israeli fighter jets struck targets in Gaza City, Beit Lahiya, Bein Hanoun, and Khan Younis. The attacks resulted in six deaths in Gaza City and another in Khan Younis. Additionally, over ten homes were destroyed in eastern Gaza City and Rafah. Previously, on 19 April, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed around 90 people, including 15 women and children. Those killed included 11 people in Khan Younis and several others who were sheltering in a tent camp for displaced people in the Muwasi area. Four others were killed in Rafah city. The previous day, Israeli attacks killed around 58 people in 40 targets across the Gaza Strip. The airstrikes followed Hamas' rejection of an Israeli ceasefire proposal.

Syria: Clashes in Damascus kill 13
On 29 April, Al Jazeera reported that at least 13 people were killed in a clash between different groups in Jaramana, Damascus. The clashes were triggered by a social media audio of a Druze leader attacking Prophet Muhammad. Attackers from Maliha town and other Sunni towns converged in the Druze town of Jaramana. Following the clashes, Israel launched air strikes in the region. Syrian authorities responded by rejecting “foreign intervention” in the country, but did not accuse Israel of the attack. The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates stated: “Syria affirms its unwavering commitment to protect all components of the Syrian people … including the children of the honourable Druze community.”  Israel said that it attacked the “extremists” who attacked the Druze community. 

Yemen: US airstrikes on Houthis
On 20 April, the US military conducted airstrikes against the Yemeni Houthis, killing 12 people and injuring 30 others. The airstrikes were concentrated on Yemen’s capital, Sanaa and its towns of Attan, Asir, Furwah, and Shoub, which the Houthis have controlled since 2014. Previously, on 19 April, the US conducted 13 airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Hodeidah port and airport. Two days earlier, US forces struck Yemen’s Ras Iasa port, killing around 80 people and injuring over 150. Additional missile strikes targeted Sanaa’s al-Tawra, Bani Matar, and Al-Safiah districts. The attacks were a part of US President Donald Trump’s efforts to mount pressure on the Yemeni group and force it to stop targeting US and Western ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis, however, insisted that they will continue such attacks in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

Yemen: The UK joins the US air strikes on the Houthis’ drone manufacturing facility in Sanaa
On 30 April, the US and the UK forces carried out joint airstrikes in Sanaa, Yemen. The strikes targeted drone manufacturing facilities of the Houthis. The group had been using the facility to produce drones, being used to attack vessels in the Red Sea. 

Lebanon: Israel bombs Beirut
On 27 April, Israel carried out airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon. This is the third airstrike on Beirut since the ceasefire signed in November. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the airstrike and called for France and the US, the mediators of the ceasefire, to compel Israel to stop the attacks. Aoun added that Israel is posing “real dangers to the security” of the region. Meanwhile, Israel claimed that the attack targeted “an infrastructure where precision missiles” were stored by Hezbollah. 

Ethiopia: WFP announces a suspension of aid amidst a lack of funds
On 22 April, the World Food Programme (WFP) announced the suspension of aid for 650,000 malnourished women and children in Ethiopia over a lack of funding. The UN agency stated: “WFP is being forced to halt treatment for 650,000 malnourished women and children in May due to insufficient funding.” The agency said that it had plans to provide aid to two million mothers and children in 2025, but had to cut short it because of the funding shortfall after the Trump administration in the US announced an aid freeze. The agency additionally warned: “Cash and in-kind food assistance for up to one million refugees will stop in June if additional funding is not received.” 

Somali: Al Shabab captures Wargaadhi town
On 24 April, Al Jazeera reported that the Al Shabab militant group took control of the Wargaadhi town in the Middle Shabelle region after fighting with Somali troops. The clashes have raised tensions that if the Al-Qaeda linked group manages to capture the region, it would give access to crucial roads connecting the capital, Mogadishu, the south-west regions and the central Galmudug state. According to the Somali troops, 12 soldiers and 20 militants were killed during the fighting. 

DR Congo-Rwanda: Signs agreement to draft a peace deal by 2 May
On 26 April, Al Jazeera reported that Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) signed an agreement to draft a peace deal by 2 May. According to the agreement, both actors have agreed to respect each other’s sovereignty and stop supporting armed groups. DRC’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Therese Kayikwamba and her counterpart, Olivier Nduhungirehe, signed the agreement during the meeting in Washington, the US. The US-led talks after the Qatari-brokered ceasefire, and the US expressed its interest in mineral deposits in eastern DRC. 

DR Congo-Rwanda: Qatar brokers ceasefire between DRC and M23 rebels
On 23 April, the DR Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels agreed to a ceasefire after negotiations led by Qatar in Doha. They jointly stated: “Both parties reaffirm their commitment to an immediate cessation of hostilities, a categorical rejection of any hate speech, intimidation, and call on local communities to uphold these commitments.” 

Nigeria: ISWAP and Boko Haram carry out a series of attacks
On 29 April, Al Jazeera reported that at least 26 people were killed after a truck hit an explosive device in Nigeria’s Borno state. Groups including Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram have been active in the region for decades. ISWAP claimed responsibility for the attack. Separately, on 28 April, ten vigilantes from the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) were killed by Boko Haram in the state of Adamawa. In another attack on 24 April, 14 farmers were killed by an unknown armed group in Borno state. 

Nigeria: Farmer-herder clashes kill 56 in Benue
On 19 April, AL Jazeera reported that at least 56 people were killed in Nigeria’s Benue state after nomadic cattle herders carried out two attacks. The attacks came two days after 11 people were killed in the Otukpo area of Benue state in another attack. Two weeks before, more than 50 people were killed in Plateau state in a gunmen attack. Recently, ethnoreligious clashes between Muslim Fulani herders and Christian farmers from the Berom and Irigwe ethnic groups have escalated. 

Burkina Faso: Army foils coup attempt
On 22 April, the Burkina Faso military government said that it foiled a coup attempt to overthrow military leader Captain Ibrahim Traore. The army has alleged that the plotters were based in Ivory Coast. Minister of Security, Mahamadou Sana, said that the coup attempt was led by current and former soldiers working with “terrorist leaders.”
 
DR Congo: China urges Rwanda to end its support for the M23 rebels 
On 20 April, SCMP reported that China’s Ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, urged Rwanda to end its backing for the M23 rebel group in DR Congo. Fu said: “China reiterates its hope that Rwanda will heed the call of the international community, stop its military support for M23, and immediately withdraw all its military forces from the [DR Congo] territory.” China voted in favour of condemning Rwanda’s role in the conflict at the United Nations Security Council. China has mining interests in the DRC and central Africa. 

Europe and the Americas
Turkey: A 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul injure 151 people
On 23 April, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake hit Istanbul, injuring 151 people. The epicenter of the earthquake was in the southwest region of Istanbul, at the Marmara Sea. According to Julia Hahn, reporter of DW: “There were many leaving buildings and gathering outside. The shock and panic set among the people of Istanbul.” Turkey is prone to earthquakes, and it has faced one of the most powerful ones in 1999 and 2023. Tremors were felt in major parts of southeast Turkey. According to the Turkish Interior Minister, Ali Yerlikaya, the earthquake lasted around 13 seconds, followed by a minute of aftershocks. 

The UK: Thousands protest in London against the court ruling on trans gender people
On 19 April, protests broke out in London for the rights of transgender people. The Supreme Court of the UK ruled that the legal definition of a woman is a person born as a female biologically. The rally in central London went against the Supreme Court ruling by claiming that trans women are women, and trans rights are human rights, by waving the LGBTQ+ flags. One of the demonstrators, Eevee Zayas, a transgender person, told AFP news: “The extremists will feel empowered by the court's decision, and the hate crimes against the trans community would increase.” Amnesty International added: “The judgment is disappointing and raises potentially concerning consequences for trans people, and the ruling does not change the protection trans people are afforded under the protected characteristic of gender reassignment.” The case was raised by the women’s rights group, For Women Scotland (FWS), which appealed a law passed by the Scottish Parliament on the definition of a woman. FWS made claims that the parliament ruling could have an impact on the gender rights of the people of Scotland.

Ukraine: Sanctions on Chinese firms for supplying Russia with Iskander missiles
On 18 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy imposed sanctions on Chinese firms for their involvement in the production of advanced Iskander missiles for Russia. This comes after Zelensky accused China of supplying weapons to Russia. Zelenskyy administration released a new list of sanctions on entities, which includes Russian and Chinese companies. The Russian firms, Beijing Aviation and Aerospace Xianghui Technology, Rui Jin Machinery Co, and Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Xining Co, are all said to be registered in China. Russia uses the missiles these companies sell for its nuclear-capable short-range missile system. Zelensky said: “Today, we have expanded our Ukrainian sanctions against nearly a hundred more entities - natural and legal persons - most of whom are involved in the production of such missiles -Iskanders - like those that struck our Kharkiv.”

Russia: North Korea confirms troop deployment in Kursk along with Russian troops
On 28 April, North Korea confirmed sending its troops to Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine. North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un has sent his troops under the mutual defence treaty between Russia and North Korea. In a press conference, Kim Jong-Un said: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives to honour the motherland.” This move has given Russia an upper hand in liberating Russian territory, occupied by Ukraine.

Spain and Portugal: Black-out affect more than ten million
On 28 April, Spain and Portugal were facing huge power blackouts, with no access to trains, metros, traffic lights, ATMs, phone connections, or internet. Several were trapped in elevators, and trains, and stalled traffic led to abandoned airports. Hospitals had to postpone their appointments, but for the critical cases, doctors used generators and backup systems. Mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez Almeida, insisted that the public move around less. Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, had a crisis meeting with the national grid operator Red Eléctrica and discussed the outage. He said: “The cause of the problem is unclear, but Europe’s power grid is certainly to be blamed.” The national cybersecurity institute investigated the possibility of a cyber-attack. European Council President António Costa and Vice President Teresa Ribera have confirmed that there is no threat to cybersecurity and evidence that this incident was intentional. By 10 pm GMT, around 62 per cent of the power demand was met. According to Red Electrica, it would take six to eight hours to fully restore the power. Portuguese main operator REN said: “The outage was caused by a rare phenomenon, with extreme variations in temperatures in Spain, causing anomalous oscillations, in very high voltage lines.” REN has deployed all the resources, and there is no definitive answer as to how long it would take for the electricity to return. Parts of Southern France had been briefly affected, but it was restored by midday.

Spain: NGOs file lawsuit against government for illegal fishing in West Africa
On 23 April, Client Earth and Oceana, two environmental NGOs, filed a lawsuit against the Spanish government to investigate the illegal fishing conducted on West African waters, using a Spanish-flagged boat. The NGOs accuse the government of neglecting the EU laws by ignoring the absence of the vessel on the radar, and operating on the coasts of Senegal and Guinea. All shipping boats must be traced for the safety and transparency in the fishing industry. The Global Fishing Watch has revealed that several Spanish boats operate off the coast during the night, which has been ongoing since 2020. The NGOs argue that the illicit practices affect the marine biodiversity and undermine the economies and food security that rely on fishing. The Spanish authorities deny all sorts of claims made by them. According to the NGOs: “Spanish authorities claim to lack jurisdiction to act against citizen companies outside EU territories, unless the vessel was blacklisted internationally. The EU law prohibits individuals or companies in illegal fishing anywhere in the world, and if they do, the state must identify them and impose sanctions against them.” To circumvent the EU laws, many Spanish companies, joint ventures and local firms refit the vessels for countries like Senegal to give them an economic advantage from the West African fishing zones. The West African coast hosts the largest number of fish, migrating from China, Russia, Korea, and the EU. Spain and other foreign-owned boats make up 73 per cent of the industrial fleet in the region. In March, several NGOs sued the French government over its failure to abolish the constant thawing of marine reserves, arguing that they ignored the damage to these protected areas. Partnership agreements like the SPFA’s encourage the EU to legally fish for stocks in the western African zone in exchange for financial compensation. With the fish population decreasing in that area, the locals are to face the possibility of food insecurity, unemployment, or migration, but if the NGOs win their case against the Spain, the authorities are to further investigate and start resolving these issues.

The US: Trump to impose fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports
On 18 April, the BBC reported that the Trump administration would impose port fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports. This aims to revive the US shipbuilding sector and curb Chinese dominance in the industry. The US Trade Representative (USTR) announced a similar plan in February to charge USD 1.5 million for each visit to US ports. The fee would be hiked every year. USTR said: “China has largely achieved its dominance goals, severely disadvantageous to US companies, workers, and the US economy.” The fee will be estimated based on the weight of the cargo and the number of containers. Initially, the Chinese ship owner would be charged USD 50 per ton of cargo, and a USD 30 per ton fee would be added every year for the next three years. Any non-US ship will be charged USD 150 per vehicle.

The US: Commander of US Indo-Pacific conducts symposium to strengthen defence coordination
On 17 April, Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel J Paparo convened the Senior Defence Official (SDO) and Defence Attache (DATT) symposium with senior military and intelligence leaders from across the Indo‑Pacific. Representatives included the Defence Intelligence Agency, Defence Attaché Service, US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) joint directorates, service components, and sub‑unified commands. The symposium aims to address regional security challenges, improve interagency coordination, and formalise intelligence‑sharing arrangements. Participants reviewed regional defence strategies, affirmed commitments to peaceful development, and a joint contingency response.

About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Nuha Aamina, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, and Abhiruchi Chowdhury are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University.

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