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CWA # 1663
Global Politics Early Bird
Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Carney continues as the PM, as the Liberals consolidate their 2021 performance

  R Preetha
4 May 2025

Following Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister in January 2025, Canada held elections for all 343 Parliamentary seats on 28 April. The Liberal Party led by Mark Carney, emerged victorious, securing 169, just short of 172 needed for a majority. The Conservative Party captured 144 seats.

What does the election convey?
This result ensures Carney’s continuation as PM, a role he assumed in March 2025 following Trudeau’s resignation. The results also  reveal the consolidation of voter support of the Liberals and Conservatives; together, these two parties claimed over 80 per cent of the popular vote —the highest since 1930.

Second, for the Liberals, the results reflect a consolidation of their 2021 performance, with a modest gain. In 2021, they won 160 seats and the Conservatives 119. Third, the results also underscore regional and political fractures. The Liberals dominated in Ontario and Eastern Canada, while the Conservatives swept Alberta and Saskatchewan. British Columbia split evenly, with both securing around 41 per cent of the vote. Fourth, the above two party surge has come at the expense of smaller parties, particularly the National Democratic Party (NDP); its share of the popular vote is down by 12 per cent. The Bloc Québécois secured 22 seats but lost its ground in Quebec, while the Green Party won a single seat.

Who were the key players?
Mark Carney, 60, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, took over the Liberal Party in January 2025, replacing Justin Trudeau. His campaign emphasized resilience against the US threats. Pierre Poilievre, 45, has led the Conservatives since 2022, cultivating a populist image rooted in “common sense politics.” A Member of Parliament since 2004, Poilievre’s style, echoing Trump’s, initially propelled the Conservatives but Trump’s trade war cost him momentum. He lost Carleton, a seat he held for two decades.

The NDP, a social-democratic party led by Canadian Sikh Jagmeet Singh, 46, supported Trudeau’s minority government during 2021-24. The NDP has consistently been the third or fourth largest party. The party’s left-leaning base, disillusioned by economic anxieties and drawn to Carney’s anti-Trump stance, defected en masse to the Liberals, and secured only seven seats. Singh’s defeat in Burnaby Centre, prompted his resignation.

The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet since 2019, advocates Quebec sovereignty and fields candidates exclusively in Quebec. Still, they are a key player in Canadian elections, and their popularity in Quebec could determine the fate of the other major parties looking to form government.

What were the election issues?
First, dealing with Trump. Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, including threats of steep tariffs and provocative calls for Canada to become the “51st state,” spurred a wave of Canadian nationalism. Trump’s imposition of harsh tariffs on Canadian imports, combined with Canada’s reliance on the US for nearly 80 per cent of its exports, elevated trade and sovereignty to top voter concerns. Carney’s pledge to retaliate with targeted tariffs and diversify trade with “reliable allies” resonated with voters. Poilievre’s initial reluctance to confront Trump directly alienated moderates, contributing to his electoral setbacks.

Second, the soaring prices for essentials, with inflation peaking at 8.1 per cent in June 2022. The Liberals proposed a one-point income tax cut for the lowest bracket and sales tax exemptions for first-time homebuyers on properties under C$1 million. The Conservatives countered with a steeper tax cut, scrapping sales tax on new homes and Canadian-made cars. The NDP and Bloc Québécois offered targeted relief, focusing on essentials and pensions.

Third, the housing crisis. The Liberals pledged to double annual housing starts to 500,000 through a federal developer and C$25 billion in financing. The Conservatives aimed to build 2.3 million homes in five years by linking funds to municipal targets, while the NDP proposed three million affordable units, emphasizing rent controls.

Fourth, climate policy. Carney repealed Trudeau’s consumer carbon tax but kept industrial carbon pricing, promising to balance emissions reduction with industrial growth. His openness to new pipelines, alongside a proposed east-west electricity grid, signaled towards this balance. The Conservatives vowed to eliminate all carbon pricing, repeal environmental assessment laws, and scrap an oil and gas emissions cap, prioritizing economic growth. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens advocated fossil fuel subsidy cuts and renewable energy, with the Greens pushing for a fully renewable grid.

Carney inherits a deeply fractured country. The Liberals were buoyed by strong showings in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver, while the Conservatives dominated in the oil-rich prairies and suburban ridings anxious about inflation and housing unaffordability. Many young Canadians see homeownership as out of reach, and food prices continue to strain household budgets.

Tensions in Alberta and Saskatchewan are especially high. Regional leaders accuse Ottawa of benefiting from prairie oil revenues while implementing environmental policies that harm their economies. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned of a looming “national unity crisis” unless her province’s concerns are addressed.

On the economic front, the tariffs are weighing on a stagnating economy. The Bank of Canada warns that a prolonged global trade war could push the country into a severe recession. On leading a minority government, the Liberals must forge alliances, likely with the NDP or Bloc Québécois, to pass legislation.

References
Amanda Coletta, “Canada’s new leader faces big challenges related to Trump and beyond,” The Washington Post, 29 April 2025

Shukriya Shahi, “Canada Election 2025: Meet the Key Players in the High-Stakes Political Battle,” The Daily Guardian, 19 April 2025

“Canada votes today: The key candidates, major parties and Trump’s likely impact on results,” The Indian Express, 28 April 2025

Nadine Yousif, “How Canada party platforms compare on key issues, from the US relationship to housing,” BBC, 24 April 2025

Phil Leake, Alison Benjamin, Daniel Wainwright and Jess Carr, “How Canada voted - in charts,” BBC, 3 May 2025

About the author
R Preetha is a research intern with the Global Politics Team at the Science Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at NIAS. She is pursuing post graduation at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai.

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