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CWA # 1689
CW Note
Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
Conflict Weekly # 282-83, 29 May 2025, Vol 6, Nos. 21 & 22

  Padmashree Anandhan
29 May 2025

In the news
On 27 May, Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched 60 drones at Ukraine overnight attack. On 26 May, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy accused Russia of preparing a new offensive following the largest drone attack, along with cruise missiles. The attack targeted civilian infrastructure across northern, central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, resulting in 13 deaths. 

During 23 and 25 May, Politico reported on the prisoner swap of 1000 each between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Among those who returned today are soldiers from our army, the State Border Service, and the National Guard of Ukraine.”

On 27 May, US President Donald Trump warned Putin, "playing with fire" and severe consequences. On 26 May, he criticised Putin following a wave of deadly drone and missile attacks on Ukraine and warned: “Putin’s ambition to take all of Ukraine would ultimately lead to Russia’s downfall.” While acknowledging his historically good relationship with Putin, Trump said the Russian leader had "gone absolutely CRAZY." 

On 26 May, the Kremlin warned that any Western move to lift range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine would be "dangerous." Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that such decisions, if confirmed, would undermine hopes for peace and escalate the conflict further. On 27 May, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, reported on the ongoing process for a draft memorandum outlining its conditions for a potential peace deal to end the war. 

On 29 May, the German government signed a EUR five billion agreement with Ukraine to deepen military cooperation. The deal focuses on the joint production and procurement of long-range missile systems made in Ukraine, with no restrictions on their range.

Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s inability to defend its airspace. Russia continues to launch missiles and drones. Ukraine’s struggles to intercept these attacks highlight its weakness in air defence capacity. Till now, Ukraine has received Patriot missile systems, IRIS-T, NASAMS and new Gravehawk systems from the western allies. However, it faces a shortage of modern air defence systems as the pledged support of the West has been insufficient or delayed. This gap has resulted in the loss of major infrastructure and urban centres, increasingly making Ukraine’s military and civilians vulnerable. 

Second, Trump’s big words with no concrete action. Trump positioned himself as a staunch mediator capable of ending the war. His repeated efforts for the ceasefire through signalling trade deals with Russia or warning against imposing sanctions have not materialised. The calls with Putin have been rather symbolic than actual measures to pressure Russia into a ceasefire. While no peace framework, timeline for talks or sanction measures have been decided, Ukraine continue to be at the brunt of aerial attacks, casualties and damage.

Third, Russia’s contradicting strategies. Putin proposed direct talks but to not show up in Istanbul. He appreciates the Trump administration as more understanding of Russia’s interests but no concrete agreements resulted from the calls or meetings. He insists on not returning the Donbas and Crimea regions and demands legal recognition of the annexed territories, but demands that Ukraine should never join NATO. On the ground, there have been a few proposals from Russia calling for a short-term ceasefire however, the drone strikes and capturing of villages in the eastern front do not seem to stop.
  
In perspective
First, Russia’s ambiguity is a strategy to win all. Russia has managed to deter the US from sending full-scale military aid to Ukraine by keeping the talks always on edge. This has helped it to continue its strikes on the ground, only strengthening its negotiation position. Europe’s sanctions and the threat of unrestricted supply of a range of weapons have earned strong objections from Russia. Putin’s direct threat to Europe on using “military winnings” will add more concern to European security as Europe still grapples with balancing between defence investments and economic stress. Russia's current stance on the ground and in the negotiations has broken all the predictions of non sustaining a prolonged war. It has strategically managed to use its resources within such as Wagner troops, and external aid from Iran, Belarus, North Korea, and China to strengthen its position in the war.  Thereby successfully keeping all the supporting allies of Ukraine in tense. 

Second, the European push. With Trump leading the negotiations with Russia, European leaders have been keen on mounting pressure on Russia through sanctions. However, the sanctions have failed to slow down Russia. The latest measure to lift restrictions on the range of weapons supply combined with aid to develop Ukraine’s long-range missile production, showcases Europe’s push to not only pressure Russia but strengthen Ukraine’s defence for the long term.

About the author 
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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