Global Politics Explainer

CWA # 1720
Global Politics Explainer
New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming

Lekshmi MK
17 June 2025

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On 28 May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029). The report highlights that the Arctic is projected to be warming three and a half times faster than the global average. Arctic temperatures during the next five years are expected to rise by 2.4 degrees Celsius. These warming poses serious risks to ecosystems, indigenous communities, global sea levels and weather patterns. 
 
What does the new report say?  
First, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s Global Annual forecasted that Arctic warming is occurring at a rate of three and a half times ahead of the global average. The temperature in the Arctic is projected to be 2.4 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average for the next five years. Between 2025 and 2029, the temperature of the global near surface is predicted to increase between 1.2 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius. Further, the report emphasised that there is a probability that one of the years in this decade would be over 1.5 degrees Celsius above the level set in the Paris Agreement, 2015. Second, this trend of rapid warming had been predicted to contribute to even more intense and more frequent extreme climate events. The Earth is most likely experiencing heat waves, heavy rainfalls, prolonged droughts, rapid melting of the ice sheets and glaciers, warming of the oceans, and rising sea levels.  
Third, the WMO had forecasted above-average rain for regions such as the Sahel region, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia from May to September. However, the Amazon basin is forecasted to be facing below-average conditions for the same time.  

What is Arctic Warming?  And why is the Arctic warming?
Arctic warming refers to the rapid rise in temperatures in the Arctic region, faster than the global average. It causes the darker ocean water to absorb more solar heat.  This phenomenon of Arctic amplification is known as Arctic warming. The rapid warming poses risks to the Arctic ecosystems, indigenous communities. It also contributes to the global sea level rise. The impact goes beyond the Arctic. Arctic warming disrupts the jet streams that affect global weather systems. This leads to extreme weather events worldwide.  Arctic warming is not just a regional issue. It is a global climate concern that has a far-reaching impact on the environment, economy, and human lives. The reasons behind this rapid warming are many. The loss of sea ice leads to less solar reflection (albedo effect). Rising temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more water vapour, which is a greenhouse gas that traps even more heat. Thawing permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide, intensifying the warming cycle. Furthermore, warm ocean currents from lower latitudes are pushing additional heat into the region.

What does it mean?  
The rapid warming of the Arctic has social, ecological and environmental consequences. First, impact on indigenous communities. Inuit, Sámi, and Chukchi are the indigenous people who depend on Arctic animals and seasons for hunting, fishing and herding.  Liquifying permafrost leads to the destruction of infrastructure. Damaged roads, homes and pipelines crack as the ground becomes unstable. The traditional activities, such as ice fishing and sledge travel, become dangerous due to the unpredictable weather.  

Second, impact on Arctic animals. Polar Bears, Walruses, and Ringed Seals are losing their home. Sea ice is their habitat for hunting, breeding, and resting. Due to the ice layers, Caribou and reindeer struggle with accessing food. Marine life is also impacted. Ocean heat changes the fish patterns, food chain and predator-prey status. Migration routes of birds such as the Arctic tern are changing, impacting breeding and nesting success.  

Third, impact on Arctic plants and vegetation. The Arctic tundra is undergoing "shrubification". Thawing permafrost results in the emission of greenhouse gases (methane and COâ‚‚) that change soil chemistry and hydrology, which impacts plant growth. Reduced snow cover seasons have resulted in shifts in plant phenology such as flowering and seeding timing. Some native species struggle to compete with the warming.  

Fourth, environmental implications. Glacial, sea ice, and permafrost melting lead to rising sea levels and changes in weather patterns globally. It upsets ecosystems, puts Arctic animals at risk, and emits greenhouse gases from melting permafrost. This creates a vicious cycle that enhances global warming.  

Fifth, economic implications for Arctic countries. Warming could potentially untap new transport routes and access to oil, gas, and minerals, increasing resource extraction. It could threaten the ecosystems. Non-Arctic states could gain from trade but lose from climate-related disturbances. Economies that rely on hunting, herding, and fishing by indigenous peoples would be at risk.  

References
•    Olivia Le Poidevin, "Arctic warming seen at three times global average in years ahead, UN weather agency says," Reuters, 31 May 2025.
•    WMO Staff, "Global temperature is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level temporarily next 5 years," World Meteorological Organization, 28 May 2025.
•    Earth.Org Staff, "The Effects of Arctic Warming on Indigenous Communities," Earth.Org, n.d.
•    Carbon Brief Staff, "Polar bears and climate change: What does the science say?" Carbon Brief, n.d.

About the author
Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student in the Department of Political Science at Madras Christian College. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).

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