Conflict Weekly

CWA # 1816
Conflict Weekly
The War in Gaza: Israel’s expanding military campaign
The Middle East
Conflict Weekly 300, 25 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38

Brighty Ann Sarah
25 September 2025

Photo Source: AP Photo

Between 8 and 10 September, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Qatar and the coast of Tunisia were brought under a coordinated Israeli airstrike. On 8 September, Israeli airstrikes targeted Lebanon citing claims of attacking Hezbollah infrastructure. On the same day, Israel launched strikes on several sites in Syria, hitting a Syrian air force base in Homs and military barracks. Israel justified the strikes as an attempt to prevent weapons from falling “into the hands of extremists.”  On 9 September, Israel attempted to assassinate Hamas political leaders through airstrikes in Doha. Qatar has been hosting the leadership and mediating a US-backed ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Five members, including the son of Hamas' exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, were killed in the attack, while the top leadership including al-Hayya survived. President Trump had also condemned the attack, stating that he was "very unhappy about every aspect" of the Israeli strike. On 10 September, Yemen’s capital of Sanaa and the northern province of al-Jawf were subject to Israel’s aerial attacks. Israel claimed the strikes targeted Houthi military camps, the headquarters of the Houthi military "propaganda" department, and a fuel storage site.  On 15 September, Qatar hosted an emergency joint session between the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Doha. The OIC and the Arab League staunchly criticised Israel’s violation and declared their solidarity with Qatar

The following are the takeaways from Israel's expanded attacks in the Middle East.

1. Israel’s violation of sovereignty and unilateral action in the region
Israel’s recent military posture has moved well beyond the confines of Gaza and the West Bank, with cross-border operations increasingly targeting actors across the wider Middle East. The 09 September strike in Doha, which killed Hamas representatives and civilians on Qatari soil, drew sharp criticism from the UN Security Council as a “flagrant violation” of sovereignty and the condemnation from the Arab states. The targeting of Qatar, a neutral party and a key negotiator in the Israel Palestine conflict heightened the severity of the violation. The strike underlined that Israel no longer restricts its security priorities to Palestinian territory but now treats the broader neighbourhood as part of its security perimeter.

2. Israel’s campaign on dismantling proxy militant groups
The extension of Israel’s military campaign is anchored in its broader strategy to dismantle regional proxy networks. Strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah positions, attacks on Hamas leaders abroad, and operations in Yemen against the Houthis demonstrate a coordinated effort to disrupt the leadership and infrastructure of groups Israel sees as existential threats. Israel is attempting to capitalise on the weakened state of the proxies, many of whom have suffered battlefield losses and declining external support, particularly from Iran. Israel has also underscored its intent on the dismantling the leaderships, evidenced in evident in the strike targeting the Hamas leadership in Doha and in the 30 August strike on Yemen that killed the Prime Minister of the Houthi government.

3. Diminishing scope for diplomatic resolution in the Palestinian conflict
The strike on Qatari territory has also narrowed the already fragile prospects for diplomatic resolution of the war in Gaza conflict and the larger Israeli-Palestinian question. Qatar has served as one of the few effective mediators, brokering ceasefires, hosting negotiations, and facilitating humanitarian arrangements. By targeting Hamas officials in Doha, Israel directly undermined Qatar's role. At the Doha summit, Qatari officials openly questioned the feasibility of hosting negotiations with Israel, questioning, “How can we host negotiating delegations from Israel while they send drones and planes for an air raid against our country?” This military escalation has also revealed Israel’s rigor for military conclusion over diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Gaza, with the single-minded objective of dismantling Hamas.  Egypt and Turkey remain potential mediators, but neither has the same leverage that Qatar built over years of engagement. The perception that Israel prioritizes military action over diplomacy further diminishes the credibility of ceasefire proposals and prolongs the conflict, eroding the faith in a viable diplomatic path forward. 

4. The eroding trust in US security guarantees
Israel's military escalation has further exposed the fragility of US security assurances in the Middle East. Qatar, despite being a major non-NATO ally of Washington, and the host of the largest American military base in the region was unable to rely on US protection against Israeli strikes. While the United States did join in the UN Security Council condemnation of the Doha attack, the carefully worded statements were perceived by many Arab leaders as inadequate, highlighting Washington’s unwillingness to restrain Israel. At the Doha summit, Arab states openly voiced dissatisfaction over the failure of US reassurances in the event of an ally striking a neutral partner. This has led to a broader regional reassessment of American credibility, particularly as Gulf states increasingly consider alternative security partnerships. The Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Pact can be an indication of this reconsideration.  

5. Strain on regional ceasefire attempts
Israel’s aerial aggression on the Arab neighbourhood, violated several truces established to deter conflict in the region and perpetuates the cycle of mistrust, dimming the chances of an Arab-Israeli normalisation. The air raids were the latest violation of a ceasefire agreement signed between Tel Aviv and Beirut in November 2024, which had already been fragile due to sporadic violations. The attacks happened amidst Lebanon’s deliberations over dismantling Hezbollah near the Israeli border, and the group had indicated agreement to disarmament in exchange for a halt in Israeli military operation. The strikes on Syrian military bases occurred amidst attempts to negotiate a security framework between Damascus and Tel Aviv.  The attack on Yemen followed a 30 August Israeli strike that had killed the prime minister of the Houthi-run government and several ministers.

About the author
Brighty Ann Sarah is a postgraduate student at Stella Maris College, Chennai.

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