Conflict Weekly 300th Issue

CWA # 1822
Conflict Weekly 300th Issue
The War in Ukraine: Fragile Skies, Failed Offensives, and Stalled Ceasefires
Europe
Conflict Weekly 300, 25 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38

Padmashree Anandhan
25 September 2025

Photo Source: AP Photo

The war in Ukraine began in February 2022 and since then, Ukraine’s struggle to counter Russia has continued, with fluctuating support from Europe and the US. Three years later, Ukraine has failed to gain a strong position on the ground to win against Russia in the negotiation table. 

Following are major takeaways of the War in Ukraine.

1. Intense drone and missile warfare
Both Ukraine and Russia have increased the frequency of drone and missile attacks, with the latter being more intense. Russia has targeted Kyiv, Sumy, Odesa, and other urban centers, killing civilians and destroying infrastructure such as railway grids and energy installations. While, Ukraine has used drones to attack only oil depots across western Russia. These strikes are symbolic and tactical. It aims to portray its capacity to strike inside Russia and attempts to use it to negotiate for Donbas. However, the scale of Russian attacks with hundreds of drones shows the aerial vulnerability of Ukraine and Russia’s continued aerial superiority.

2. Failed Military Offensives
Assessing the offensives launched by Russia and Ukraine, except for the 2022 Kherson offensive. The war has become attritional. Ukraine has not managed to sustain its battle against Russia. It’s a symbolic offensive in Kursk initially advanced to capturing 1,000 square kilometres but was later stalled due to severe logistical challenges, weapon shortage and North Korea stepping in support for Russia. The quick adaptation by re-routing resources, boosting defensive lines and exploiting Ukraine's intelligence gaps have been the major counter-strategies of Russia to win against Ukraine’s offensives. Russia at present controls 20 per cent of Ukraine's territory with a secure link from its border to Crimea, forming a strategic position.

3. High casualty rate
At the humanitarian level, prisoner exchanges have been primary, with mediation help from the UAE and Turkey. As of 2024, 59 such exchanges have been carried out, with several soldiers and civilians freed. While the efforts to send financial aid and exchanges have helped reduce the human suffering, as of July 2025, nearly 50,000 civilians have been killed or injured and more than 370,000 soldiers have been wounded.

4. Stalled peace talks
Since Trump’s comeback there have been several efforts for a ceasefire or to end the war; however, all the diplomatic efforts have only proliferated more attacks on the ground with less progress towards achieving a ceasefire. Ukraine continues to aim to capture or win back the entire territory from Russia with the help of the West’s support and sustainment through security guarantees. Whereas Russia demands legal recognition of the annexed territories, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, combined with an assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. As these differences continue to exist, the deadlines and meetings between Russian and US officials have not materialised politically, except for symbolic gestures.

5. Russia’s control over annexed regions
The annexed regions form a belt or corridor extending from eastern and southern Ukraine, linking Crimea. Russia has secured most of the regions in Luhansk and Donetsk, securing the eastern frontier to defend Russian-speaking populations while holding Ukraine’s industrial heartlands. Going further south, Zaporizhzhia acts as the central link; it contains key energy infrastructure and connects Donbas to Crimea. Kherson, located on the Dnipro River, controls vital transport routes and the North Crimean Canal, ensuring water supply to Crimea. This is seen as critical for Russia as the Crimean region, along with the self-annexed regions, would project its power into Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

6. Vulnerable air defence and continuing land defence
Ukraine has improved its capabilities to launch drones and missiles far into Russia with the support of advanced aerial systems from the West, yet it lacks deterrence. The devastating infrastructural, communication and environmental losses from Russia’s strikes have incurred massive loss. European countries have stepped up aid for reconstruction; however, the increasing damage in the urban centres and infrastructure leaves Ukraine's recovery a far-fetched goal, increasing its dependency on the West. 

About the author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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