State of Peace and Conflict 2025

CWA # 1880
State of Peace and Conflict 2025
The Coup in Guinea-Bissau: A suspicious takeover, Electoral disruption and Regional instability
Conflict Weekly #313, 31 December 2025, Vol. 6, No. 52

Santhiya M
31 December 2025

Photo Source: Reuters

What happened?
On 26 November, Guinea-Bissau’s High Military Command announced that they deposed the president, arrested officials, and seized power in a coup. "I have been deposed," said President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to France 24 and fled to Senegal. The coup came a day before the announcement of the presidential election results, in which both Embaló and the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, claimed victory.

On the same day, the AU and the ECOWAS jointly condemned the coup d’etat.

On 27 November, Major-General Hort Inta-A Na Man was sworn in as the transitional president for a one-year term. He appointed Ilidio Vieira Té as Prime Minister the next day.

On 28 November, Guinea-Bissau was suspended from ECOWAS and the AU. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that he is “deeply concerned by the unfolding events,” and condemned the coup.

What are the issues?
First, the persistent political instability. The country has faced four successful coups (1980, 2003, 2012 & 2025) after its independence from Portugal in 1974.  The country also witnessed a civil war in 1998. After President Embaló came to power, he dissolved the parliament twice, citing coup attempts.

Second, the disputed elections. Embalo’s presidential term expired in February 2025. However, the elections were delayed until November, which triggered political tensions. In October, the Supreme Court disqualified major opposition parties, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), and the coalition Pai Terra Ranka, from contesting the elections, citing late submissions. Meanwhile, a day before the official announcement of the election results, Embalo and his major rival Dias claimed victory.  The coup came after the disputed election results. Later, the electoral system server and instruments were found attacked, and the transitional leaders claimed that the election results were lost. Previously, the Embaló’s win in 2019 was also contested by the PAIGC.

Third, the suspicion around the coup and the lack of popular support. The opposition, civil society organisations, and politicians raised suspicion over the coup. Following the coup, Embaló flew to Senegal on a Senegalese military flight. Senegal’s Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, called the coup a “sham.” The former President of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, described the coup as “ceremonial.” A former member of parliament noted: “The way he left Guinea-Bissau, escorted like a tourist with his family and luggage, without any obstacle or resistance.” Embalo is being suspected of fabricating the coup to prevent the announcement of the election results. Opposition leaders, including Dias and PAIGC leader Pereira, have also argued the same.

Fourth, the regional instability. The coup in Guinea-Bissau is the seventh in West Africa. It came after coups in Mali (August 2020), Burkina Faso (January 2022 and September 2022), Niger (July 2023), Guinea (September 2022), and Gabon (August 2023). The military often cites corruption, jihadist insecurity, weak institutions, and instability as reasons. Meanwhile, in Guinea-Bissau, the military blamed politicians involved with a “well-known drug” unit trying to destabilise the country.

Fifth, the lukewarm responses from regional organisations. Besides a ban and condemnation, ECOWAS has threatened to use sanctions. However, enforcement has been delayed amid internal rifts. The AU has also called for dialogue, elections, and the deployment of envoys. However, has not opted for strong measures. The regional groups also fear an increasing number of military-authoritarian governments and the strengthening of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

What does it mean for 2026?
The military has outlined a one-year transition period and plans to hold elections by late 2026. However, these assurances are often unreliable, as previously witnessed in Mali and Burkina Faso, where the military extended its rule under the guise of security or reform. The 29-article Transitional Charter was introduced in December. It bars the transitional president and prime minister from contesting in the upcoming elections. However, this is likely to be a gesture to pacify the domestic and international backlash. The coup can also lead to sharp downturns economically. The country is already dependent on cashew and remittance, with an increasing risk of exacerbating poverty. The suspensions from ECOWAS and the AU also threaten the flow of aid.

Regionally, the coup extends the political vulnerability and erosion of democracy in West Africa. Recently, there has been an increasing southward expansion of the “coup belt” from the Sahel to coastal countries. This includes the case of Guinea-Bissau, a failed coup attempt in Benin in early December 2025, and coup-prone countries such as Sierra Leone. This is also a major test for ECOWAS in its attempts to maintain regional stability in the region.

About the author
Santhiya M is an Undergraduate student at Madras Christian College, Chennai.

 

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