State of Peace and Conflict 2025

CWA # 1889
State of Peace and Conflict 2025
China’s Yarlung Tsangpo Mega Dam: Transboundary Tensions, Environmental Impacts and Security Concerns
Conflict Weekly #313, 31 December 2025, Vol. 6, No. 52

Femy Francis
31 December 2025

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What happened?
On 19 July, China’s Premier Li Qiang launched the construction of a Medog Hydropower Station on the Tibetan Plateau to build the world’s largest hydroelectric facility. The project is located in the lower regions of the Yarlung Tsangpo River. The location has raised concerns regarding the water supply of lower riparian countries, and the ecological impact on the downstream countries, India and Bangladesh. The ceremony was held in the Nyingchi region of Tibet. The Yarlung Tsangpo River becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet, and it flows to India’s Arunachal Pradesh. The initiative was first announced under China’s 2020 five-year plan. The dam will create 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, which will be three times more than the Gorges Dam. Additional concerns include the impact on water and food security for India and Bangladesh, and the potential weaponisation of water by China, which could be used to induce floods or droughts. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs refuted the concerns and said: “Rather, the project could help in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, and support climate change adaptation in downstream regions.” This has also encouraged India to speed up the building of its hydropower projects in the Brahmaputra River, Arunachal Pradesh.

What are the issues?
First, the interlinked geography of the transboundary river is a tension point. The river basin consists of the Yarlung Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna, meaning the boundaries of the above rivers change ownership based on the region in which they flow. China via Tibet, India, and Bangladesh, all hold stakes in the river that flows. The river originates from the Angsai Glacier, from the Himalayan Lake Manasarovar and Mount Kailash. Currently, the Chinese side of the river is facing severe desertification due to climate change and high altitude. The Yarlung Tsangpo River takes a sharp U-turn, “Great Bend,” and it enters India through Arunachal Pradesh as Siang. When it reaches Assam through tributaries of Dihang and Lohit, it becomes the Brahmaputra. The river merges with the Jamuna and enters the Padma River of Bangladesh. Therefore, it forms a transboundary river basin.

Second, concerns raised by the lower riparian countries. India’s Ministry of External Affairs condemned China’s plan to build the dam in January 2025. The ministry stated that it would give an unfair advantage to the higher riparian country, China, with no water-sharing pacts signed with the lower riparian countries. These concerns were bolstered by China's decision to halt the sharing of Brahmaputra water data with India following the 2020 Doklam standoff. Arunachal Pradesh’s Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that the proposed dam is a potential “water bomb.” Additionally, the region where the Yarlung Tsangpo River flows is a seismic zone, making it vulnerable to earthquakes. It is not only challenging for builders, but also the construction is reckoned to have an ecological impact on the region. This can lead to reduced sediment flow to the downstream waters, which will affect agriculture. There is also a lack of formal river sharing treaties between the three countries, while there have been several Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM) meetings held to discuss emergency management and data sharing of possible floods.

Third, China is facing water scarcity. China’s second-longest river “Yellow River,” faces water scarcity due to demographic pressure and unsustainable use of the basin. The Yellow River is responsible for 65 per cent of hydroelectric energy generation in China. The water utilisation of the Yellow River is at 80 per cent, double the recommended usage of 40 per cent. There is also desertification in the headwaters of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin due to topography and climate change. To replenish the basins, the Chairman of the Beijing Shuotian Consultancy & Development Co., Guo Kai, suggested diverting some water from the Brahmaputra, noting that there is “plenty of water, and it won't make any difference to India.” This view was taken forward by several scholars like Li Ling in “Tibet’s Water Will Save China,” where they called for the exploitation of the resources in the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, building the infrastructure also establishes Chinese territory close to the contested regions.

What does it mean for 2026?  
First, the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam will have larger political and territorial significance. The building of the dam will also be a territorial demarcation in the contested region. This means building the dam will bring Chinese infrastructure to the Tibetan region, very close to the Himalayas and Arunachal Pradesh; the Indian state is also claimed by China as “South Tibet.” India, perceiving this threat, plans to build 150 dams in Arunachal Pradesh and wants to expedite the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), which faces local protest. China will continue to build, pushing India to speed up its defence. Bangladesh, the third party in the basin, has been quiet on the same. The interim government of Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus, after ousting Sheikh Hasina, has been pivoting to China, inviting them to work on the Teesta River project. The silence, therefore, speaks volumes as to where Bangladesh stands.

Second, the Indian government would likely expedite the building of the SUMP on the Siang River. In August, activists and farmers from the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh urged the union government to push back and to go ahead with the 11,500-megawatt Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) on the Siang River. Lawyer and Activist at the press conference, Siang Indigenous Farmers’ Forum (SIFF), Ebo Mili said: “Instead of creating fear over the Medog project, the Government of India should consult with its Chinese counterpart to get an accurate status of the project before pushing the SUMP through.” Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu defended the project and called it a defensive measure against water-related issues from the Medog project, which he termed a ticking time bomb. While the majority are still against the SUMP project, the government of Arunachal Pradesh is pushing for it.

Third, the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo dam will have some environmental impact. India’s concerns are well-founded when questioning the repercussions of building this dam. But it is important to note that the Brahmaputra River, whose flow is of concern, does not rely entirely on the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow. Brahmaputra is largely fed by the seasonal rainfall that happens annually in the Northeastern Region of India. The United States Institute of Peace published a paper titled “The Water Wars Myth: India, China and the Brahmaputra.” The report noted that while China has access to the majority of the basin, India and Bangladesh have access to the highest precipitation areas with rainfall above 98 inches per year. On the other hand, the dam can have a potential impact on the water flow and increase the risk of flooding. In case of conflict, induced floods are a threat to the lower riparian country.

About the author 
Femy Francis, Project Associate, NIAS. 

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