State of Global Politics 2025

CWA # 1931
State of Global Politics 2025
NATO Summit 2025
The World This Week #338, Vol 7, No 52, 31 December 2025

Padmashree Anandhan
31 December 2025

Photo Source:

What happened?
During 24 and 25 June, the NATO summit in the Hague concluded with the participation of the 32-member alliance. NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, focused on reinforcing deterrence amid renewed concerns over Russia. He declared: “It is simply unthinkable that Russia, with an economy 25 times smaller than NATO’s, should outproduce us. We must win this new war of production.” Ahead of the summit, US President Donald Trump raised doubts over ambiguity around Article 5. He said: “Depends on your definition,” but added, “I’m committed to being their friends.” 

The three major commitments from the Hague Declaration were increasing the defence spending to five per cent. 3.5 per cent on “core defence requirements" and 1.5 per cent towards “critical infrastructure, defend our networks, ensure our civil preparedness and resilience, unleash innovation, and strengthen our defence industrial base.” Second, the commitment to defence and deterrence. The NATO alliance recognises hybrid threats like cyberattacks and assured that the increased defence investment will help NATO to strengthen its capabilities on land, sea, air, space and cyberspace. Lastly, on Ukraine, the alliance has resolved to commit  EUR 35 billion additional security aid and stresses on ensuring Ukraine’s long-term defence and boosting its capacity to prevent future aggression. The UK announced GBP 70 million in air defence aid to Ukraine, while Germany announced plans to add 10,000 troops by 2025 and double its defence budget by 2029.

What is the background?
First, regional challenge. The summit took place against the backdrop of four years of continued Russian aggression and Ukraine’s prolonged demands for military aid. This comes as Russian forces have been able to maintain pressure on the ground and negotiating table. NATO claims to share 99 per cent of all the military aid received by Ukraine till now.  The war has made Europe realise the shortages in defence and major gaps in defence investments, yet a united stance to increase defence spending remains fragmented. This can be viewed in the cases of Poland, the Baltic states, and the UK, which vouch for NATO enlargement, while Hungary, Slovakia and Germany take cautious steps with fears of escalation.
 
Second, the threat from Trump. Continued criticism of European allies by Trump before the 2024 elections and a warning to withdraw support for Ukraine has affected the confidence of NATO members. Especially the recent warning to impose tariffs on those NATO countries that avoid increasing their defence spending makes it even more challenging for European countries in NATO to function as a transatlantic group. 
Third, Article 5 and the EU’s concerns. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is the core principle of collective defence. It states, an armed attack on one member will be considered as an attack on all. This becomes critical if triggered, mandating the allies to support the attacked member with armed force and help restore security. Since Trump’s presidency, Article 5 has become a stressful factor after his warning to withdraw support if the defence spending target is unmet by all allies. This has triggered concerns across the EU to reduce dependence on US’s defence support and heightened awareness to boost defence investments.
 Fourth, reluctance over defence spending. As of the 2024 NATO defence expenditure report, the US remains one of the major contributors with EUR 800 billion out of EUR 1,173 billion in total. During 2006 and 2014, only Norway, Poland, Estonia and Albania maintained the GDP share of defence spending, while several declined their shares until the war in Ukraine. Germany and Finland have assured to boost their military expenditure; however, a large uncertainty remains if they will all meet the five per cent threshold.

What does this mean?
First, an ambitious shift to boost European defence responsibility. Considering the NATO expenditure reports and the pace of increase in defence spending by the NATO allies, the five per cent target by 2035 does seem ambitious. Trump’s push factor may help to increase the EU’s defence share in the alliance and help lay a path for the EU towards its “strategic autonomy.” However, bringing all the EU countries into NATO as a united military buildup while economic and political differences would be a big challenge.

Second, Trump is making Europe great again. The NATO summit and the higher defence target are the result of Trump’s warnings. The goal was to showcase unity while meeting Trump’s demands, which led to criticism of Rutte for “praising” Donald Trump. While the internal differences continue, Europe’s realisation to step up its defence and efforts to become independent of the US is the first step toward a strategic autonomy. How far it will be able to pursue this across the member states and how long the intensity will persist remains unknown.

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

UK and China
February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The India–US interim trade framework
February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan