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Conflict Weekly
The new push in the Ukraine war, Ben Gvir’s visit to al Aqsa, Mali's pardon to Ivorian soldiers, violent protests in Brazil and violence over Guzman's arrest
IPRI Team
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Conflict Weekly #158, 12 January 2022, Vol.4, No.2 An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and India Office of the KAS
Padmashree Anandan, Mohaimeen Khan, Apoorva Sudhakar, Madhura Mahesh and Allen Joe Mathew
Ukraine: A new military push, worsening the situation
In the news
On 1 January, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed a strike on Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles’ (UAV) industrial facility using a “high-precision long-range air-based armament,'' killing over 350 Ukrainians and destroying air-defence missile systems. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed to have taken down 45 Shahed drones, killing 400 Russians in a missile attack in Makiivka; however, Russia’s Armed Forces reported only 89 casualties.
On 4 January, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would provide “light AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles” to Ukraine. He said: “This is the first time that Western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army.”
On 5 January, the White House and Germany released a joint statement on supplying more weapons: “The United States intends to supply Ukraine with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and Germany intends to provide Ukraine with Marder infantry fighting vehicles.”
On 5 January, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said: “I am instructing the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation to introduce a ceasefire along the entire line of combat engagement in Ukraine from 12:00 on January 6 until 24:00 on January 7 of this year.”
On 8 January, a Russian Defence Ministry spokesperson claimed that a “massive missile attack” in Kramatorsk had killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. The spokesperson said: “In response to an illicit strike inflicted by Kiev’s regime on a temporary Russian military base in the settlement of Makeyevka…the command of the united group of Russian military forces conducted a retaliation operation.”
On 10 January, the Russian mercenary Wagner group claimed to be fighting the war to capture Soledar as part of the Russian offensive in Donetsk. The same was confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence which stated: “Soledar…likely continues to be Russia’s main immediate operational objective.”
Issues at large
First, the intensification. The exchange of shelling between Russia and Ukraine, which was concentrated in Ukraine’s southern and north-eastern regions, has expanded further into the eastern Ukraine, centre of Donetsk. The Ukraine military has shifted from attacking the frontline to shelling the Russian occupied Donbass area (Makiivka, Soledar), due to the upgradation of its military capabilities through the West’s supply of long-range air defence systems and an equal push to the ground forces through tactical battle tanks. On the other hand, Russia has been challenged with logistical issues, weakened military, dependency on the Wagner Group and Iran’s drones. Despite that, it aims to establish a strategic military base to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure and bring Donetsk under its control.
Second, the battle for Soledar and the involvement of the Wagner group. The Russian Defence Ministry has not claimed the use of Shahed drones in the Kramatorsk attacks. However, the US and the UK intelligence have observed otherwise. Russia’s control in the Donbass seems to be gradually fragmenting, accompanied by a need to involve the Wagner Group. The new year attacks in Kramatorsk and quick advances of the mercenary group into Soledar prove Russia’s determination to strengthen its posture, keep its weapons available at the right place (Soledar salt mine), and encircle Donetsk. However, increasing military support to Ukraine and the timing of the ceasefire announcement will further complicate the war strategies. The use of foreign drones, the involvement of the mercenary group, and the lag in striking back provide a glimpse into the growing vulnerability of the Russian military.
Third, strengthening air-defence systems and advancing ground mobility. The West’s support to Ukraine has slowly improved since September, from giving air defence missile systems, drone technologies, and intense training. In November, the US and Germany denied Ukraine’s request for patriot missiles and advanced ground mobility vehicles to counter Russia’s firepower. This changed in January, with the US, France, and Germany agreeing to provide battle tanks. These infantry fighting vehicles provide ground troops the tactical mobility to launch attacks close to the enemy. The Bradley and Marder have been upgraded with chain guns making them more effective in battleground.
In perspective
First, advantage Ukraine. Despite its inability to position its military against Russia’s concurrent attacks on its energy grid, Ukraine’s military is steadfast on the frontline, recapturing lost territories. The Ukraine military’s main challenge ahead would be to counter Russia’s forces and push them further into the east of Donetsk.
Second, Russia’s continued carpet bombing. Russia’s targeted attacks on the energy infrastructure are expected to continue, along with surprise carpet bombing in particular zones to inflict severe damage. A future ceasefire can be expected through Turkey’s mediation, if Russia decides to use it as an opportunity to replenish its military stocks.
Third, new weapon systems to Ukraine. There are several reasons behind the West agreeing to upgrade its military support. The cost factor of the Patriot missiles compared to those used in the HIMARS could be one. Another reason could be the early prediction for Russian aggression coming to an end. The last concern could be the economic impact of heavy military spending. Although the increased military support helped Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive, it raised the bar to launch into the Russian-occupied territories. The West’s further upgrading to Patriot missiles and infantry vehicles means it is ready to stretch its military expenditure sheet.
Israel-Palestine: Itamar Ben Gvir’s controversial visit to al Aqsa
In the news
On 5 January, Palestinian UN ambassador Riyad Mansour urged the UNSC to take measures against Israel in response to Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit to the al Aqsa mosque compound on 3 January, after which he tweeted: “The Temple Mount is open to all,” using the Jewish name for the location. Mansour addressed the UNSC: “What red line does Israel need to cross for the Security Council to finally say, enough is enough?” Meanwhile, Israel’s envoy to the UN criticised the UNSC meeting terming it “pathetic” and “absurd.”
On 6 January, the Israeli government approved several retaliatory measures for a Palestinian attempt to have the International Court of Justice issue a ruling on the long-standing occupation. The measures include a moratorium on Palestinian construction in the West Bank and the use of Palestinian funds to compensate the families of Israeli soldiers and settlers attacked by Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said these actions were a “response to the Palestinian Authority’s decision to wage political and legal war against the State of Israel.” The Palestinian Authority's foreign ministry termed these measures a “flagrant violation” of Israel’s obligations as an occupying power and said it was part of the Israeli government’s “racist colonial programme” against Palestinians.
On 8 January, Israel revoked the travel permit, allowing Palestinian officials to travel in and out of the West Bank.
On 9 January, Ben-Gvir ordered the removal of Palestinian flags from public locations and justified his decision by stating that displaying the Palestinian flag was a sign of “terrorism.” The order came after anti-government demonstrations took place in Tel Aviv, where protesters waved the Palestinian flags.
Issues at large
First, the importance of Jerusalem for both. Israel claims Jerusalem as its capital, while Palestinians seek East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the holy compound located in East Jerusalem is a critical site. From 1948 till 1967, Israel was ruling West Jerusalem, and Jordan was ruling East Jerusalem, and the Old City’s important holy sites. In 1967, After a conflict with Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and other Arab states, Israel seized and annexed East Jerusalem. The international community does not recognise Israel’s sovereignty over it, and majority of the Old City’s residents are Palestinians. The Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, governed by Jordan, is in charge of the al-Aqsa mosque, the Dome of the Rock, and the Haram al-Sharif, the third holiest site in Islam. According to a 2014 agreement based on a long-standing understanding and mediated by the then US Secretary of State John Kerry, “Al-Aqsa is for Muslims to pray and for all others to visit.” The Jews refer to it as Temple Mount and it is the holiest site in Judaism. Jews and other non-Muslims are permitted to visit the site but are not permitted to worship; Palestinians regard Jewish visits as attempts to disrupt the status quo.
Second, the return of the far-right nationalist party. The ruling far-right coalition consists of religious parties, ultra-nationalist and ultra-orthodox parties, with the exception of Netanyahu’s Likud party. A two-state solution is not supported by any of the members of the far-right, nationalist coalition. Ben-Gvir, the head of the Jewish Power Party, sent a message with his visit as a National Security Minister that he intended to support extreme Zionist nationalism and religious Jewish fundamentalism that poses a threat to all prospects for peace.
In perspective
First, concerns regarding an uprising. Twenty years ago, the then-Israeli opposition minister visited al-Aqsa mosque which led to the Second Intifada. Ben-Gvir’s call for changing the status quo of the site is a major cause of concern as tensions could escalate. The Israeli government's policies are expected to negatively impact the West Bank and Gaza’s already precarious political, economic, and security situation.
Second, tensions in the region. The visit by Ben-Gvir provoked a wave of anger among the Muslim world, who harshly denounced the visit. The first official visit by Netanyahu to the UAE has been rescheduled for February. Hamas issued a statement warning that this behaviour will lead to a “big clash.” The rivalry is accelerated and potentially destabilises the Middle Eastern region. It may turn into a wider conflict if the Middle Eastern states attempt to get assistance from other state and non-state actors.
Ivory Coast: Mali releases 46 Ivorian soldiers after over five months
In the news
On 6 January, Mali’s president Assimi Goïta pardoned 49 Ivorian soldiers who had been arrested in July 2022 for allegedly being mercenaries. The military government’s spokesperson said Goïta’s pardon “demonstrates once again his commitment to peace, dialogue, pan-Africanism and the preservation of fraternal and secular relations with regional countries, in particular those between Mali and Ivory Coast.” The Mali government also thanked Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbe for “for his tireless efforts and constant commitment to dialogue and peace in the region”; the government criticised the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) chairman Umaro Sissoco Embalo for his “aggressive position” on the issue.
On 7 January, President Alassane Ouattara received the 46 soldiers at the airport in Abidjan. Ouattara said: “Now that this crisis is behind us, we can resume normal relations with the brother country of Mali.”
Issues at large
First, the 2022 crisis over Mali’s arrest of Ivorian soldiers. In July 2022, Mali detained 49 soldiers, including three women, on accusations of arriving in Bamako, from Ivory Coast, without permission and being mercenaries. Ivory Coast disputed Mali’s claim and said the soldiers were backing up a UN peacekeeping mission and that Bamako was aware of the same. However, the UN, too, observed “procedural dysfunctions” in the notification sent to Mali and held that “certain measures have not been followed.” In September 2022, Mali released the three women on humanitarian grounds. Meanwhile, the ECOWAS threatened Mali with sanctions if the military government failed to come up with a plan by 1 January to release the soldiers. In December, days before pardoning the soldiers, the Appeals Court of Bamako sentenced the 46 soldiers to 20 years in prison for reportedly undermining state security.
Second, the larger differences between Bamako and Abidjan. Mali maintains that Ivory Coast has been providing asylum to Malian political leaders that Bamako wants, including former president Ibrahim Keita’s son and other former ministers. When Ivory Coast was negotiating for the soldiers’ release, Goïta hinted at asking for the return of these leaders “as opposed to a one-way solution that consists of acceding to the Ivorian demands without any compensation for Mali.” These contentions are part of the larger strained relations between the two countries since August 2020 when Mali witnessed a military coup that overthrew Ibrahim Keita. Ivory Coast has been critical of the coup and the political developments in Mali over the last two years.
Third, Mali’s deteriorating regional and international relations. While Togo has been mediating between Mali and other countries, Mali’s relationship with its neighbours and the regional body ECOWAS has been rough since 2020. Besides Ivory Coast, France, Germany, and the UK, announced their withdrawal from the UN mission in Mali recently. Further, Mali and France terminated their relations after the latter, which was leading the counter-terrorism operations since 2013, claimed working with Bamako had become unfavourable. In July, Mali also expelled the UN mission spokesperson and suspended new rotations of the peacekeepers.
In perspective
First, Mali’s pardon to the soldier is a welcome move, however, it is unlikely to rekindle friendly relations with Ivory Coast or the rest of West Africa. With several countries announcing their withdrawal from the peacekeeping mission, Mali will be the hotspot for rising insecurity. Therefore, a lack of regional cooperation will only fuel the situation.
Second, Bamako has been defensive and unwilling to compromise on its decisions. This has resulted in Mali’s isolation within West Africa and also from the rest of the world, except from a few powers like Russia.
Brazil: Bolsonaro supporters storm the democratic institutions
In the news
On 8 January, loyalists of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. Around 3,000 the protesters vandalized buildings and property. The floor of the Congress building was flooded after the sprinkler system got activated due to the protesters setting the carpet on fire. They looted the building, simultaneously posting videos online recording their actions. The three-hour long attack ended when the police and the military took control. Six hours after the attack, Bolsonaro issued a statement on Twitter saying “...depredations and invasions of public buildings as occurred today, as well as those practised by the left in 2013 and 2017, escape the rule.”
On 9 January, Brazilian Justice Minister Flavio Dino said 1500 people had been detained, 300 of whom have been arrested and will be tried in court. The Supreme Court suspended Brasilia’s Governor Ibaneis Rocha for gross failure in maintaining security.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres tweeted: “I condemn the assault on Brazil’s democratic institutions that took place today. The will of the Brazilian people and democratic institutions must be respected.” US President Joe Biden tweeted: “I condemn the assault on democracy and on the peaceful transfer of power in Brazil. Brazil’s democratic institutions have our full support and the will of the Brazilian people must not be undermined.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “The violent attacks on democratic institutions are an attack on democracy that cannot be tolerated.”
President Lula said: “He (Bolsonaro) spurred attacks on the three powers whenever he could. This is also his responsibility. There is no precedent for what these people have done, and for that, these people must be punished.” He ordered federal law in Brasilia until 31 January.
The Brazilian Supreme Court issued an order directing social media platforms to block users from spreading anti-democratic propaganda. Meta, YouTube, and Telegram announced they will remove all content promoting anti-democratic activities in Brazil. This includes videos of the attack and those praising the violent demonstrators. Meta “designated Brazil as a temporary high-risk location” and are removing any such content. YouTube and Telegram issued similar statements saying they are removing violent content from their respective platforms.
Issues at large
First, Bolsonaro’s polarizing campaign and subsequent actions. At the start of campaigning for Brazil’s national elections, Jair Bolsonaro had begun speaking about the electoral system being compromised. He sought to undermine people's faith and trust in the electoral process. He sought to divert attention from the failures of his government to fight COVID-19. His speeches were geared towards raking up religious and social issues, such as LGBTQA+ and women’s rights. Bolsonaro’s actions all led to the polarization of Brazilian society on political lines. When the election results were declared on 30 October 2022, Bolsonaro maintained silence and did not issue any statement about his loss. This added to the conspiracy theories and fake news being spread on social media. Bolsonaro flew to Florida before his term ended and did not attend the inauguration on 1 January, breaking the tradition of handing over the baton to the new president. Finally, on 8 January, this culminated in the violence at Three Powers Square.
Second, Lula’s unifying campaign. President Lula and his party, on the other hand, focused on Lula’s past record in governance and the bread-and-butter issues being faced by people. He also promised to stop the destruction of the Amazon, which had increased during the Bolsonaro years. He made coalitions with various other groups and reached out to unite as many people as possible. This gave people hope as they saw in him, a hope for a renewed Brazil.
In perspective
First, the attack on Brazil’s institutions and the preceding violence comes as the first challenge in Lula’s presidency. He has handled it well and managed to not let Brazil’s democratic institutions fall into the hands of the rioters. Brazil’s military establishment, too stood faithfully behind the elected government and did not respond to the calls for a coup by Bolsonaro’s supporters. Going ahead, Lula’s biggest challenge is to govern over a fractured Brazil, where politics has seeped into the everyday lives of people. He has taken the right decision to take stringent action against the protesters and the former president himself.
Second, the question over Bolsonaro’s return. Bolsonaro needs to be brought back and be made answerable for his crimes. He is the sole person responsible for creating such a vicious environment that culminated in the attack on three pillars of Brazil’s democratic institutions. This was an act against democratic values and democracy itself, which thankfully has been thwarted by Lula’s careful management of the situation.
Mexico: Violence in Culiacan triggered by the arrest of cartel leader
In the news
On 5 January, security forces captured drug cartel leader Ovidio Guzman in Culiacan, Sinaloa and transferred him to the Altiplano prison. The arrest triggered violence in Culiacan, killing 29 people, 19 cartels members and 10 military personnel. The cartel members reportedly set fire to 250 cars used to block roads and tried to take over the city’s airport where a civilian plane was caught in the crossfire; causalities were reported.
On 6 January, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador praised the military’s success in capturing Guzman and added: “That the presence of elements of the Ministry of Defence, the National Guard, the state police, that is collaborating, will be maintained, and that this protection will be maintained so that there is no damage to the civilian population throughout Sinaloa.”
On 8 January, AP News called the operation a “display of muscle” ahead of US President Joe Biden’s visit to Mexico. It also quoted Mexican security analyst Alejandro Hope who said that the arrest was mostly due to pressure from the US. Obrador denied these claims saying: “There is cooperation, and there will continue to be, but the decisions are made as a sovereign, independent government, and these decisions are made in the Security Cabinet.
Issues at large
First, the drug cartels and violence. Guzman, the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, belongs to the Sinaloa cartel, one of the most powerful cartels in the world. In 2019, when Guzman was first arrested, the cartel members opened fire using machine guns and burned buses and cars in Culiacan, killing many civilians. This has also been the case whenever a cartel leader is arrested across Mexico. Cartels in Mexico control large territories which form their sphere of influence and base of operation. These cartels have developed good relations with local politicians and security personnel to prevent any investigation and a potential suspension of their activities.
Second, the government response to cartel violence. When Obrador came to power in 2018, he promised to restructure Mexico’s response to drug cartels and cartel violence. He has been critical of prior governments and the use of heavy military assault on drugs which started the turf war in Mexico. Obrador’s government has followed a “do not fight fire with fire” policy and focused on addressing the root causes of such violence and homicide. One of Obrador’s strategies was decriminalising certain drugs such as marijuana to prevent illegal cultivation and sale by cartels in Mexico. This strategy largely failed as Obrador has not been able to tackle drug cartels and Mexico has seen an increase in gang-related violence in recent years. Obrador has also been accused of going soft on cartels due to his frequent visit to Sinaloa and his close interactions with some of the cartel leader’s family.
Third, the role of the US. In 2019, a Manhattan district court sentenced El Chapo to a lifetime for abetting in the opioid crisis that led to the deaths of thousands. The US and Mexican authorities have always collaborated in the arrest of cartel leaders and drug and arms traffickers. In 2021, the two countries signed a new Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health and Safe Communities which outlined a new holistic approach to deal with drug trafficking and violence. This was largely unsuccessful due to the lack of bilateral discussions and funds and the US’s kingpin approach to dealing with cartels. The US has always extradited cartel leaders hoping to curtail cartel operations, but the arrest of cartel leaders has always led to an increase in violence and operations.
In perspective
First, a win for the Obrador administration. After the release of Guzman in 2019, Obrador faced a lot of backlash from the military and the public. With the arrest of Guzman, Obrador gained back the support of the military. The timing of the arrest coincided with the North American leader’s summit where illegal drug trafficking will be one of the issues discussed.
Second, no change in the structure and function of the Sinaloa Cartel. When El Chapo was arrested and sentenced to prison there was no change seen in the functioning of the cartel. The US authorities noted an increase in the number of drugs trafficked. Hence Guzman's arrest will not lead to any significant change in the cartel’s operations.
Also, from around the World
Avishka Ashok, Abigail Fernadez, Rashmi Ramesh, Apoorva Sudhakar, Anu Maria Joseph, Madura Mahesh and Padmashree Anandan
East and Southeast Asia
China: Workers protests against unfair removal and delay in salary payments
On 8 January, The Strait Times reported that workers at the Zybio COVID-19 test kit factory protested against the company for not paying the salaries. There were allegations that the company had fired workers who were recruited in the last few weeks. The AFP however could not clarify the location and the timing of the videos. The videos showed brown-and-white buildings which matched the company's facility in Dadukou District Jianqiao Industrial Park.
Taiwan: China conducts military and combat drills around the island
On 9 January, Taiwan's Defense Ministry condemned China for conducting military combat drills and reported that 57 aircrafts had trespassed into the country's Air Defense Identification Zone. The Eastern Theatre Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced that it conducted joint combat readiness patrols and combat drills in the sea and the airspace around the Island. The PLA statement said: "The aim was to test joint combat capabilities and resolutely counter the provocative actions of external forces and Taiwan independence separatist forces." China's Taiwan Affairs Office also referred to the drills and said that it was a warning against Taiwan's collusion with the US. The office also claimed that there was an increase in the military collusion between Taiwan and the US.
Taiwan: US cuts back on its naval trips in the Straits and the South China Sea in 2022
On 7 January, The Strait Times cited Bloomberg and reported that the US had sailed nine warships through the Taiwan Strait in 2022. The number of naval transits were the lowest in four years, despite China's increased military activities around the island. The latest sail was conducted on 5 January when the US 7th Fleet sent a destroyer, angering the Chinese government. Other than the sails, the US Navy conducted four "freedom-of-navigation operations" in the South China Sea in 2022, marking the least number of trips in six years.
Taiwan: Air Force official returns after a six-month academic exchange with NATO
On 11 January, Taiwan's Air Force Officer Lieutenant-Colonel Wu Bong-yeng revealed details of a rare interaction with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and his six-month long academic programme with senior officials in Italy. The Taiwanese military does not have many cooperative exercises with foreign militaries, other than the US military. However, the development comes after NATO released its strategic concept in June 2022 where it described China to be a challenge to its interests, security and values. Bong-yeng clarified that the exchange was academic in nature and not militaristic.
Philippines: At least 11 people died in heavy rain and landslide
On 10 January, at least 11 people died in the heavy rains, landslides, and serious flooding across the Philippines. Heavy rain and landslides in disaster-prone areas are expected to continue. The bad weather conditions have been wrecking central and southern islands since December and continue to cause havoc.
Philippines: China and Vietnam seek legal advice over baring of oil and gas exploration in the Philippines
On 10 January, the Supreme Court ruled that the 2005 deal for oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea by the Philippines, China and Vietnam is illegal which altogether bars foreign firms from exploring natural resources. The ruling makes the exploration of the non-disputed area complicated, 14 years after an appeal was lodged. In 2019, countries continued exploration after the disagreement with the 2016 ruling. Both China and Vietnam are set to file an appeal against the ruling and are seeking legal guidelines for the same.
Japan: Marine Littoral Regiment in Okinawa
On 9 January, diplomatic sources from US and Japan informed that a Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) would be established in Okinawa by 2026, equipping the islands with long-range anti-ship missiles, air-defense bases, and radar stations. The decision was taken after increasing Chinese activity in the East China Sea, especially near southwest Japan; being in close proximity to Taiwan, makes the establishment of this Regime strategically important as well. Setting up the MLR could help both countries better train and cooperate, while the risk of triggering a Chinese military response cannot be ignored either. Anti-base movements and hostilities against American military bases have been going on since the 1950's. Therefore, this announcement would not appeal to the locals and would risk another conflict between Japanese locals and American marines on the island.
Australia: “One in Century” flood
On 9 January, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Kimberley which is still experiencing the ‘one-in-100-year’ flood. The flood came as a result of heavy rains that followed cyclone Ellie. This caused major damage to infrastructure, including the breakage of the Fitzroy River Bridge, which delayed the supply of essential products. The Australian Defense Force helped airlift food and medicine in West Australia. They also evacuated over 100 residents in Fitzroy Crossing, one of the worst affected areas. So far, 280 people have been displaced, 175 of whom have remained in evacuation centres. Complaints against the evacuation centres not being well-equipped are also coming in. Albanese in his recent visit has promised to grant ASD 10,000 for the redevelopment of the flood-affected areas, though utilization of that fund is yet to be seen.
South Asia
Pakistan: One person killed in stampede amid flour crisis
On 7 January, one labourer was killed in a stampede after hundred people stormed trucks carrying wheat flour that arrived at Gulistan-i-Baldia Park, in Mirpurkhas, Sindh. The flour crisis in Pakistan has spiralled out of control in recent weeks in all four provinces as the price of wheat flour rose to Rs 1500 per kg. However, the problem has been looming in the country for several months as concerns were raised since the last domestic wheat harvest fell far short of expectations and the domestic consumption requirements. The situation was worsened by the floods that caused massive damage to the wheat stocks in several regions.
Afghanistan: Clerics and humanitarian agencies call girls’ access to education and work
On 10 January, a delegation of Muslim clerics during their visit to Kabul called on the Taliban to ensure the right to education for every Muslim, particularly the need for girls’ access to education in Afghanistan. Following the meeting, the head of the delegation said: “Education is necessary, therefore we call on the Islamic Emirate to pave the ground for the education of women as soon as possible.” Similarly, on 9 January, the Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugees Council, Jan Egeland during his visit to Kabul said that without female staff, they cannot work and will not work in Afghanistan. He said: “I am here in Afghanistan to meet Taliban leaders and try to find a way to get out of the current ban on our female workers, which is paralysing all our humanitarian work in Afghanistan.” Meanwhile, on 7 January, the UN deputy special envoy for Afghanistan, Markus Potzel in a meeting with the Acting Minister of Higher Education, Neda Mohammad Nadim, called for the “urgent lifting of the bans” on women's education and jobs in non-governmental organizations.
Central Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Armenia: Authorities arrest anti-Russian protesters in the city of Gyumri
On 8 January, Armenia police arrested over 60 people near Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Armenia’s second-largest city, Gyumri. The protesters demanded that the government cut ties with Moscow as the standoff with Azerbaijan worsened over Nagorno-Karabakh and claimed that the Russian peacekeeping forces were colluding with Azerbaijan and Turkey to keep the Lachin Corridor which is the only road linking the region with Armenia blocked. They also called for Armenia’s withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The protest was organised by the National-Democratic Axis, a bloc of opposition groups claiming to be a pro-Western political force in Armenia.
Iran: UN Rights Chief statement on executions
On 10 January, Volker Turk, the UN Human Rights Chief said that the death sentences issued in Iran amount to “state-sanctioned killing”, and is creating fear among the population and erasing the space for dissent. He also said that “the weaponization of criminal procedures to punish people for exercising their basic rights- such as those participating in or organizing demonstrations” is unacceptable. On 7 January, Iran hanged two more men for allegedly being involved in the killing of a member of security forces during the course of the protests.
Syria: UNSC extends critical aid to Syria
On 10 January, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend a critical border crossing between Turkey and northern Syria to transfer aid to the rebel-held area. Syria opposes the aid flow, however, its close ally Russia voted in favour of the UNSC resolution. The UN Secretary-General said that the vote came at a juncture where the “humanitarian needs have reached the highest levels since the start of the conflict in 2011 with people in Syria grappling with a harsh winter and a cholera outbreak.”
Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 56 per cent of under-five deaths, says UN report
On 10 January, Africanews reported that a latest report by United Nations Inter Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation says that nearly five million children under the age five died in 2021 alongside 2.1 million aged between five and 24. The report also says at least 1.9 million stillborn births are estimated during the same period. Besides, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 56 per cent of all under-five deaths. The report adds that nearly 59 million children and youth will die by 2030 and nearly 16 million will be lost to stillbirth if proper action is not taken to improve the health services.
Rwanda: Government clarifies on sending back refugees to DRC
On 10 January, a government spokesperson said Rwanda does not intend to expel refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The spokesperson said the media had misrepresented President Paul Kagame’s stance on the refugees from DRC and said Kagame only “addressed was the blatant hypocrisy in criticising Rwanda which simultaneously gets the blame for state failure in the DRC [DR Congo], and is then expected to accommodate those who seek refuge from the consequences of that failure.” The development comes a day after Kagame told the Senate on 9 January that Rwanda cannot continue accommodating refugees for which Kigali is later “held accountable in some way, or even insulted and abused about.”
Sudan: UN launches second phase of negotiations
On 9 January, BBC reported that the UN mission in Sudan launched a second phase of negotiations between military and civilian groups on 8 January. The United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (Unitams) said the four-day conference will discuss five major issues in the political framework of the agreement. Civilian and military leaders, civil society groups, academics, private sector representatives and religious leaders are attending the conference.
Nigeria: Six rescued after kidnappers abduct over 30 from train station
On 10 January, security forces rescued six people after 32 people were abducted from a train station in Edo state on 7 January. The rescued include women and children. The federal government termed the incident “despicable and utterly barbaric.”
Europe and the Americas
NATO and the EU sign the third joint declaration
On 10 January, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen signed the third joint declaration. The aim of the declaration is to boost the “strategic partnership” between the EU and NATO, keeping the 2016 and 2018 declarations as base. According to Stoltenberg: “Recognises the value of a more capable European defence that contributes positively to our security and is complementary to, and interoperable with, NATO.” The discussion focused on addressing the “geostrategic competition, resilience issues, and the protection of critical infrastructures,” along with priorities on space and disruptive technologies.
Peru: Inquiry opened into the government over the handling of protests
On 10 January, Peru’s attorney general’s office announced that it had opened an inquiry into President Dina Boluarte and her cabinet members over the handling of the anti-governmental protests. This comes as 17 people were killed and 68 people were injured in Juliaca, Puno, on 9 January in an anti-government protest. Prime Minister Alberto Otarola announced an overnight curfew in Puno after the protestors cleared the streets.
Peru: Government bans Bolivian actors for alleged involvement in anti-government protest
On 9 January, Peru’s Interior Ministry banned former President Evo Morales and eight other Bolivians for inciting protestors in Puno. This comes as protests intensify in the southern region of Peru. Following the announcement, Morales said: “Now they attack us to distract and dodge responsibility for grave violations of the human rights of our Peruvian brothers.”
Peru: Inquiry opened into the government over the handling of protests
On 10 January, Peru’s attorney general’s office announced that it had opened an inquiry into President Dina Boluarte and her cabinet members over the handling of the anti-governmental protests. This comes as 17 people were killed and 68 people were injured in Juliaca, Puno on 9 January in an anti-government protest. Prime Minister Alberto Otarola announced an overnight curfew in Puno after the protestors cleared the streets.
The US: Storm and rainfall inundate California with flash floods
On 9 January, about 90 per cent of California's population was under water due to widespread rains and a ‘bomb cyclone’ which has been developing around the west coast over the past week. The storms are called “atmospheric rivers” because they are essentially a conveyor belt of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere emerging from the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. A similar storm unleashed rains, deadly floods, debris flows and hurricane-force winds, particularly in Northern California including the Bay Area, over the weekend. The California state is bracing itself for mudslides and power outages in the upcoming week. Earlier this year, the state witnessed extreme drought and that reduced the absorption capacity of the sand in the state which has aggravated the impact of flash floods.
About the authors
Ankit Singh, Akriti Sharma, Harini Madhusudan and Rashmi BR are Doctoral Scholars at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Avishka Ashok, Abigail Fernandez, Apoorva Sudhakar and Padmashree Anandan are Project Associates at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Joel Jacob are Research Assistants at the School of Conflict and Security Studies. Madhura Mahesh and Sayani Rana are research interns at NIAS.
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STIR Team
Rare Earths and the Global Resource Race
SDP Scholar
The Rise and Reign of Ransomware
Gurpreet Singh
India and the geopolitics of supply chains
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Spain, Morocco and the rise of rightwing politics in Europe over immigration
Vibha Venugopal
The return of Taliban will be bad news for women
Udbhav Krishna P
Revisiting the recent violence: Three takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
For the Economist, Taiwan is the most dangerous place. The argument is complicated
Apoorva Sudhakar
15 of the 23 global hunger hotspots are in Africa. Three reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US decision to withdraw is a call made too early. Three reasons why
Lokendra Sharma
Learning from Cuba's vaccine development efforts
V S Ramamurthy and Dinesh K Srivastava
An energy mix of renewables and nuclear is the most viable option
Lokendra Sharma
Deadly second wave spirals into a humanitarian disaster
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US-Taliban Deal: One Year Later
Akriti Sharma
The Quad Plus and the search beyond the four countries
Apoorva Sudhakar
India's Endgames, Roles and Limitations in Quad
Sukanya Bali
Tracing the Quad's evolution in the last two decades
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: Five fallouts of the military offensive in Tigray
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Afghanistan: The recent surge in targeted killing vs the troops withdrawal
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
In Honduras, a move towards a permanent ban on abortion laws
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Civilian protests vs military: Three factors will decide the outcome in Myanmar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Trump’s Climate Change legacy: Disruption and Denial
Apoorva Sudhakar
Trump’s Iran legacy: Maximum pressure, minimum results
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
Five ways India can detangle the fishermen issue with Sri Lanka
IPRI Team
Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia
D Suba Chandran
The PDM differences, Gwadar fencing, and Lakhvi's arrest
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Nagorno-Karabakh: Rekindled fighting, Causalities and a Ceasefire
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: For the pro-democracy protests, it is a long march ahead
Harini Madhusudan
Brexit: A year of the UK-EU transition talks and finally, a Deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: The conflict in Tigray and the regional fallouts
Aparaajita Pandey
The Americas: Top Five Developments
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew
Europe: Top five developments
Sandip Kumar Mishra
East Asia: Top Five developments in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
Outer Space in 2020: Missions, Privatization, and the Artemis Accords
Sukanya Bali
5G, Huawei and TikTok: Four trends in 2020
Sumedha Chatterjee
COVID-19: How the world fought in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The Vaccine Rush: Expectations vs Realities
Harini Madhusudan
Open Skies Treaty: The US should not have withdrawn, for five reasons
Savithri Sellapperumage
Kamala Harris makes history
Mallika Devi
China is against the Quad. Five reasons why
Srikumar Pullat
Space of Tomorrow: The Need for Space Security
Tamanna Khosla
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old Challenges
Vaishali Handique
Not just regime change: Women and protest movements in Sudan
Sneha Tadkal
Technology in contemporary global protest movements
Chavindi Weerawansha
Students as agents of change: Protest movements in Zimbabwe
Anju Annie Mammen
“Unveiling”: Women and protest movements in the Middle East
Harini Madhusudan
‘The Revolution of Our Times’: Protests in Hong Kong
Samreen Wani
Lebanon: Can Macron's visit prevent the unravelling?
Harini Madhusudan
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe. It is Complicated.
Boa Wang
Two Sessions in Beijing
Boa Wang
How China fought the COVID-19
N. Manoharan
Is COVID-19 a Bio-weapon from China?
Prof PM Soundar Rajan
Is there an overlap of 5G Networks and COVID hotspots?
Rashmi Ramesh
Will COVID-19 provide a new agenda to the NAM?
Harini Madhusudan
Iran's New Military Satellite: Does it violate the UNSC 2231?
Jenice Jean Goveas
Epidemics through History
Sanduni Atapattu
Preventing hatred and suspicion would be a bigger struggle
Chavindi Weerawansha
A majority in the minority community suffers, for the action of a few
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
The Cardinal sermons for peace, with a message to forgive
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Who and Why of the Perpetrators
Natasha Fernando
In retrospect, where did we go wrong?
Ruwanthi Jayasekara
Build the power of Co-existence, Trust, Gender and Awareness
N Manoharan
New ethnic faultlines at macro and micro levels
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
A year has gone, but the pain has not vanished
Jenice Jean Goveas
In India, the glass is half full for the women
Fatemah Ghafori
In Afghanistan, there is no going back for the women
Lakshmi V Menon
The decline in terrorism in Pakistan in 2019
Rashmi Ramesh
The EU and the Arctic: The interest is not mutual. Why?
Rashmi Ramesh
Iceland, Denmark and Norway: Small is Big in the Arctic
Harini Madhusudan
The Non-Arctic powers: Interests of Japan and South Korea
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia: New PM, Old Challenges
Lakshmi V Menon
Pakistan to remain “Grey”; North Korea and Iran in “Black”
Rashmi Ramesh
Trump's India Visit: Optics, Substance and Rhetoric
Kabi Adhikari
The controversial MCC Nepal Compact
Malini Sethuraman
ISIS post Baghdadi: Will there be another Caliphate in 2020?
Aarathi Srinivasan
Climate Change: The Economy of the Indian Ocean Region in 2020
Prathiksha Ravi
Israel and the Middle East: The New Alliance Plans in 2020
Padmini Anilkumar
Middle East: The Return of Russia in 2020
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan and Algeria: Road to Democracy in 2020
Lakshmi V Menon
Syria: ISIS Decline, US Retreat and the Return of Russia in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute: Towards further disruptions in 2020
Parikshith Pradeep
The US under Donald Trump: The Fall of an Empire in 2020
Vivek Mishra
After Soleimani assassination: Options for the US
Sukanya Bali
Iran, Iraq and the US: Who wants what?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Old problems to persist with no solutions in the near term
Aashiyana Adhikari
Indian and Chinese investments in Nepal: Managing asymmetry
Shailesh Nayak | Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Blue Economy and India: An Introduction
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
North Africa in 2019: A year of protests, with some positive results
Sukanya Bali
Hong Kong in 2019: China's New Achilles Heel
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute in 2019: Towards a thaw in 2020?
Parikshith Pradeep
The US in 2019: Trump rollsout a template for a global American retreat
Rashmi Ramesh
The Arctic Littorals: Iceland and Greenland
Harini Madhusudan
The Polar Silk Route: China's ambitious search in the Arctic
GP Team
Syria: Who wants what?
Harini Madhusudan
Violence in Hong Kong: Will the protests end?
Rashmi Ramesh
Is Catalonia Spain’s Hong Kong?
D. Suba Chandran
Why an Arctic foray is essential for India
Parikshith Pradeep
Russia's Polar Military Edge
Nidhi Dalal
Protests rock Chile, Bolivia and Haiti
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Will prosecuting Suu Kyi resolve the Rohingya problem?
Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change: Four Actors, No Action
Sukanya Bali
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case
Lakshman Chakravarthy N
5G: A Primer
Rashmi Ramesh
From Okjökull to OK: Death of a Glacier in Iceland
Sukanya Bali
Challenges before Boris Johnson
Parikshith Pradeep
The Hong Kong Protests: Who wants what
Harini Madhusudan
The Hong Kong Protests: Re-defining mass mobilization
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific: Worth all the Hype?
Mahesh Bhatta
Monsoons first, Floods next and the Blame Games follow
Titsala Sangtam
Counting Citizens: Manipur charts its own NRC
Vivek Mishra
Can Hedging be India’s Strategy?
Lakshmi V Menon
Amidst the US-Iran standoff, Saudi Arabia should be cautious
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Russia, it was big power projection
Harini Madhusudan
For China, it was trade and a temporary truce
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
For Japan, it was commerce and climate change
Sourina Bej
For the US, it was trade, tariff and talks
Titsala Sangtam
Iran, US and the Nuclear deal: Europe in the middle?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Modi's Colombo Visit: Four issues to watch
Raakhavee Ramesh
Higher than the Himalayas: Pakistan and China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Across the Himalayas: Nepal and China
Mahath Mangal
The Russian Resurgence: Is the US supremacy waning?
Mahath Mangal
San Francisco wants to ban, Kashgar wants to expand
Jerin George
Espionage or Investigative Journalism?
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Huawei Controversy: Five things you need to know
Mahath Mangal
Why the world needs to look at Yemen
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Central Asia Connector
Harini Madhusudan
An Under-represented East Asia
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Africa Embraces the Belt and Road
Sourina Bej
It’s Europe vs EU on China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan: Between Democracy and another military rule
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Responses and Inspiring Lessons
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: Between Elections and Instability
Sourina Bej
Two Sessions in 2019: Four Takeaways
Lakshmi V Menon
The End of ISIS Caliphate?
Harini Madhusudan
For China, its a sigh of relief
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
For Vietnam, its a big deal
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Japan, No Deal is Good Deal
Sourina Bej
For South Korea, a costly disappointment
Harini Madhusudan
No deal is better, but isn't it bad?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The Other Conflict in Rakhine State
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Yemen: Will Sa'nna fall?
Harini Madhusudan
Sinicizing the Minorities
GP Team
US, South Korea and Thailand
Lakshmi V Menon
The Qatar Blockade: Eighteen Months Later
GP Team
Yemen, Venezuela and US-China
Sourina Bej
Maghreb: What makes al Shahab Resilient?
Harini Madhusudan
US-China Trade War: No Clear Winners
Abhishrut Singh
Trump’s Shutdown: Five Things to Know
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Will 2019 be better for the Rohingya?
D. Suba Chandran
Bangladesh: The Burden of Electoral History
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
US and China: Between Confrontation and Competition
Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu
Nepal
Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
The Maldives
Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
India
Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Bangladesh
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Afghanistan
Harini Madhusudan
China and Japan: Renewing relations at the right time
Sourina Bej
The INF Treaty: US withdraws to balance China?
Harini Madhusudan
The Khashoggi Killing: Unanswered Questions
Lakshmi V Menon
US and Israel: Trump's Deal of the Century
Nasima Khatoon
The New Maldives: Advantage India?
Harini Madhusudhan
To NAFTA or Not: Trump, Mexico and Canada
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia’s China Moment: The Mahathir Gamble
Sourina Bej
BIMSTEC: A Bay of Good Hope?
Young Scholars Debate
India, Imran Khan and Indo-Pak Relations
Siddhatti Mehta
Does Brexit mean Brexit?
Oishee Majumdar
Factsheet: China’s Investments in Africa
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The 8888 Uprising: Thirty Years Later
Harini Madhusudhan
The Tariff War: 'Stick of Hegemony' vs Vital Interests
Druta Bhatt
FactSheet: Shangri La Dialogue 2018
Rahul Arockiaraj
Immigrants as the “Other”: The Social and Economic Factors in the US
Divyabharathi E
Is Trump-Putin Summit a setback for the US?
Apoorva Sudhakar
India and Bangladesh: The Long Haul
Divyabharathi E
Quad as an alternative to the BRI: Three Main Challenges
Oishee Majumdar
FactSheet: India-Bangladesh Relations
D. Suba Chandran
Trump meets Putin; will it cost NATO?
Sourina Bej
Trump and the NATO: One Block, Different Views
Gayan Gowramma KC
Now, the United States withdraws from the UNHRC
Siddhatti Mehta
Will China be able to sustain its Dominance?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Why won't they do anything for the Rohingya?
Harini Madhusudan
The Idea of an US Space Force: Strategic Calculations
Apoorva Sudhakar
Afghan Peace: Reality or Illusion?
Hely Desai
Looking beyond Trump: Is the US declining?
Manushi Kapadia
Is China using its soft power to become superpower?
Lakshmi. V. Menon
Middle East: Has Russia chosen Israel over Iran?
Miti Shah
G7: Why Trump wants Russia in?
Hely Desai
FactSheet: G7 Summit
Siddhatti Mehta
The Panmunjom Declaration: “Tip of the Iceberg”
Druta Bhatt
Iran N-Deal and the Trans-Atlantic Divide
Manushi Kapadia
US and China: Towards a Trade War
Miti Shah
Palestine: US triggers new tensions
Divyabharathi E
The "Indo-Pacific Command": What's in the name?
Harini Madhusudan
Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Targetting Adversaries and Allies
Hely Desai
Trump-Kim Summit: Three Likely Outcomes
Apoorva Sudhakar
The Lebanon Pawn: Will it change after elections?
Lakshmi V Menon
Israel, the Game Changer?
Samreen Wani
Deciphering Turkey's External Push
Divyabharathi E
China and Russia: The New Alignments
Ann Maria Shibu
Can India afford to lose Maldives to China?
Dhruv Ashok
Why Maldives is important to China?
Lakshmi V Menon
ISIS and the Yazidi victims: Why the World should stand up?
Harini Madhusudan
US- China Tariff Face-off : Five questions
Jamyang Dolma
Why is Free Tibet important for India
Divyabharathi E
Arctic: The Strategic Significance
Lakshmi V Menon
Do we need the Quad?
Samreen Wani
Why Trump’s Iran exit is a big mistake?
Jamyang Dolma
Inter Korean Summit: Will it work?
Dhruv Ashok
The Fishermen Issue between India and Sri Lanka
Apoorva Sudhakar
Bangladesh's Economy: Decoding a Success Story
Ann Maria Shibu
Why India should not pull out of the Indus water treaty?
Divyabharathi E