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CWA # 911, 12 February 2023
GP Team
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TWTW#202, 13 February 2023, Vol. 5, No. 6
Africa: Lavrov's visit highlights increasing military assistance
Anu Maria Joseph
What happened?
On 7 February, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began his visit to Africa with Mali, marking his first visit to the west African country and second visit to Africa in two weeks. The tour also included Iraq, Mauritania and Sudan. During the visit he promised to strengthen military support to Mali which has been fighting jihadist insurgency since 2012. At a press briefing along with his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop he said: “The fight against terrorism is, of course, an issue for the other countries in the region. We are going to provide our assistance to them to overcome these difficulties. This concerns Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad and the Sahel region generally and even the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea." He further added: ''We are going to provide our support for resolving problems on the African continent. We always start from the basis that African problems must be resolved by African solution.”
Responding to Lavrov, the Malian Foreign Minister said: “We will no longer justify our choice of partner. Russia is here on demand by Mali and responds efficiently to our strategic needs.”
In Sudan, during a press conference, Lavrov said: "We discussed the need to coordinate within international institutions, reform the (U.N.) Security Council, and build a multipolar world." Meanwhile, Sudan’s foreign ministry said that the talks with Lavrov aimed to increase economic and diplomatic coordination as well as infrastructure investment in Sudan.
What is the background?
First, strengthening Russia’s ties with Africa. The visit marks Lavrov’s third trip to Africa since July 2022, which is part of a bid to expand Russia’s African presence. In July, Lavrov visited Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia through which he revived Russia-Africa ties in various domains. In January, he visited South Africa on the side-lines of South Africa’s government announcing a joint military exercise with Russia and China. Russia-Mali ties strengthened after the coup in August 2020 which was followed by the deployment of Russian Wagner group mercenaries on the side-lines of souring France -Mali relations. In addition, Mali started considering Russia as a preferential partner after Moscow provided military training and dispatched heavy military equipment, including warplanes and helicopters. Besides, in 2022, Russia promised fuel, fertilisers and food exports worth USD 100 million to Mali. Russia has solid relations with military leaders of Sudan, and thrived with the strong presence of the Wagner group in Sudan that, provides military and intelligence training in exchange for control of various Sudanese gold mines and mineral mines. In December 2020, Moscow announced a 25-year deal with Sudan to build and operate a Red Sea naval base which is yet to be ratified by Sudan.
Second, the end of France’s operation Barkhane and deteriorating western ties with Africa. In November 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the end of Operation Barkhane which began in 2013 against Islamist insurgency. The UK and Germany withdrew their troops from Mali, followed by France. Relations with Mali and western partners deteriorated after the coup in August 2020, which the western actors say “undermined” years of counterterrorism efforts. Malian authorities accused France of interfering in its internal affairs. Besides, the failure of French and other western troops in successfully fighting the insurgency as well as allegations of neo-colonial intentions, caused spread of anti-French and anti-western sentiments and protests demanding expulsion of western troops across the country.
Third, prolonging political instability in Mali and Sudan. Political instability continues to persist in Mali and Sudan followed by a series of military coups in 2020 and 2021 in Mali and 2019 and 2021 in Sudan. Unstable governments and a weak economy have created a void for al-Qaeda and the Islamic State linked insurgent groups to grow. Despite the presence of multiple international counterterrorism forces and military operations, violent attacks by insurgent groups continue to remain a threat in Mali and the Sahel region. Protests against the military government and its reluctance to agree a civilian transition added with ethnic violence defines a prolonged political instability in Sudan.
Four, increasing African support to Russia despite human rights allegations. Russia has gained significant popular support in many of the African countries against the backdrop of deteriorating ties with western countries. However, at the same time it faces human rights and war crimes allegations in Sahel. In January, the UN called for an independent investigation on the reports of war crimes by the Mali government and Russian mercenaries. The UN experts said that they have received persistent and alarming accounts of executions, mass graves, acts of torture, rape and sexual violence, pillaging, arbitrary detentions and enforced disappearances perpetrated by Malian armed forces and their allies.
What does it mean?
First, significant increase in Russia's military engagement in the continent is bringing a new image of Africa's Russian dependency. This comes at the same time when Russia seeks to deepen its trade ties and strategic partnerships elsewhere amid war in Ukraine and western sanctions.
Second, dissatisfaction with the western approach in Africa, predominantly the failure of France’s operation against the Islamist insurgency in Sahel, made Russia a preferred partner for many African countries.
Third, Russia has taken the security void after French withdrawal as an opportunity to enhance its footprints, engagement with African leaders as well as impact the African public. For Africa, increasing engagement with Russia means an uncertain output. The reports of increasing Islamist insurgency in the Sahel region and threat of the spread of insurgency to the Gulf of Guinea is concerning and will be a credibility challenge to Russia. Besides, the increasing human rights allegations on Russia's approach and closer ties with autocratic leaders raises the question on Russia's motives in the continent.
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
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NIAS Africa Team
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